Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/08/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PUEBLO CO
656 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST HIGH RES OUTPUT...LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT HAS
ENDED WITH HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHIFTING NWD INTO NE CO. WILL STILL
SEE SOME ISOLD SHWR AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS EXPANDING OVR THE CWA...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS
TOMORROW. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THIS MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE AREA
WERE ABOUT 170-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING A LITTLE FOR SUN...AS THE
MONSOON MSTR PLUME REMAINS OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUN.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE HYR TRRN TODAY AND WITH
THE ABUNDANT MSTR OVR THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY...PROBABLY
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WL PROBABLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THEN BY AFTERNOON SUN...WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING A THREAT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ON SUN...WITH THE HYR TRRN AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL RUNS AND SEE WHICH AREAS THEY ARE SHOWING THE HIGHEST HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POTENTIAL. A WATCH WL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
WHAT AREAS GET HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THE NSSL 4KM WRF IS SHOWING THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY BEING BETWEEN ABOUT 7 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM.
LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A DRIER MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A SLOW
MOVING UPPER VORT MAX WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL SEND A BOUNDARY SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND TURN FLOW
MORE NORTHEASTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO
NEAR LAMAR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL. MODELS VARY ON WHEN THEY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AT
LEAST LOW POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BECOME EMINENT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH SHIFTS EAST INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
RETURN TO DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRINGS A
RETURN TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH FORCES THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE BACK INTO THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. 88
AVIATION...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF PCPN WL DECREASE...BUT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.UPDATE...
FRONT HAS DROPPED IN FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER NAM12 MODEL HAD
SUGGESTED. RUC13 AND HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS AND SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES. THESE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...HOWEVER STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE FLASH FLOODING THREAT UNLESS STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME REGION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE HANGING IN A LITTLE BETTER
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM 10
MILES WEST OF KLHX...TO NEAR WALSENBURG...SO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALLS TO OCCUR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THIS AXIS. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
AND MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER 20-21Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED IN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO
AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB. 18Z TAFS WILL HAVE A VCTS FOR BOTH SITES FOR
NOW...AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS...AND VFR CIGS/VIS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WOULD
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS IF STORMS HIT TERMINALS. KALS IS UNDER BETTER
MONSOON MOISTURE TAP SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA
AFTER 20-21Z. VFR CIGS...BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. -KT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..MONSOON SHOWERS MAINLY MOUNTAINS TODAY...
IT APPEARS THAT MOST STORMS TODAY WILL BE HELD TO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...WITH JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOUND OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE LATEST NAM12 AND 4KM WRF DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PUSH THEM OFF TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST STEERING WINDS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 3 PM...AND THEN SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO CREATE SOME THUNDERSHOWERS NORTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT IT LOOKS
LIKE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NIGHT.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART TODAY.
THE COMBINATION OF SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST STEERING WINDS SHOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
AS FOR THE WALDO CANYON SCAR...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER
THE SCAR WILL PROBABLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST PRETTY
QUICKLY...LOWERING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SCAR FOR
TODAY. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...REMEMBER THAT WEATHER FORECASTING IS A
FLUID SCIENCE...SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH THE NEXT MODEL RUN. SO
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS THROUGH THE DAY. LW
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
..POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SLOWLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY MONDAY. HOWEVER THE DEVIL REMAINS IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS
AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WITH THAT SAID...THE
LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST...WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HELPS TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LATEST NAM
INDICATING DEW PTS IN MID TO UPPER 50S AND CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS REMAINS A TAD
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THE RIBBON OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AT ANY RATE...CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TIED TO SOLAR HEATING AND
INTERACTION WITH ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH PUSHES BULK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHICH KEEPS MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN PLACE WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED PROFILES TO BETWEEN H6 AND H5. MINOR
DISTURBANCES LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PLUME...COULD KEEP
CONVECTION ONGOING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDE
SPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
LATEST NAM IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SFC-H7 EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING STORM TRAINING. BY
MONDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY WITH BULK OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN.
WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL HELP TO
PUSH MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH STORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE HIGH BASED
OWNING TO THE DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. -MW
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS AT KCOS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS AT KPUB AND KALS.
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1116 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CELLS
WILL BE MOVING NEAR DUE NORTH AGAIN TODAY. COMPARING YESTERDAY`S
17Z DIA OBSERVATION TO THE CURRENT 17Z VERSION...IT IS 82 OVER 52
CURRENTLY WHILE YESTERDAY IS WAS 82 OVER 55. HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE
TO HAVE A FETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 50S DEW POINT UPSTREAM IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH GOING
FORECAST. COOLER MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ARE NEEDED.
.AVIATION...WINDS AT DIA ARE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AT THIS TIME. THEY
SHOULD STY MORE NORTHWESTERLY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. RJK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE BROAD UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER AROUND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A RESULTING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
COLORADO...WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL HOLDING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM GPS ARE OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH THE SURFACE TROF
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO. HARD TO TELL WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LITTLE PRESSURE RISE REFLECTION
ACROSS WYOMING. MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING THOUGH IT WILL BE SHALLOW. HARD TO REALLY MAKE MANY
CHANGES IN THIS UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE TREND FOR
HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. HOWEVER STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT OF MODEL DEPICTION OF TOO
MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO WET FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AS COMPARED TO
REALITY. LATEST LOOK AT THE HRRR ACTUALLY DROPS DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 40S OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND SEEPING OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. LOWER POPS FURTHER EAST
IN THE DRIER AIR.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF TALL UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR UP OVER COLORADO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION..A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR UPSLOPE. WITH MEAN
LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN THE 6-8 G/KG RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...CHANCES ARE GOOD WE/LL
SEE PERIODS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
..AND PARTICULARLY OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE MODEL
QPF FIELDS INDICATE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS BY MONDAY. AS
WAS NOTED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS ESPLY THE
GFS HAVE BEEN OVER DOING QPF AMOUNTS AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR
SOME TIME NOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
FCST GRIDS BELOW VALUES OFFERED BY THE MODELS...HOWEVER WILL HANG
ONTO THE 40-50 PCT POPS ON THE PLAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS AND
LIKELY POPS AT MTN LOCATIONS PRETTY MUCH FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
FURTHERMORE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50-60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. CAN/T
ARGUE WITH THAT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY THE GFS APPEAR
TOO COOL EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WOBBLING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MTN REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY. THIS CAUSES WINDS ALOFT..ALBEIT IT LIGHT
WINDS...TO REVERSE AND COME FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...CONSEQUENTLY CAUSING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
TO DIVERT WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
REGIONS. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A COMPLETE SHUT OFF OF THIS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UNTIL TUESDSAY OR WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP THE LAST OF THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD ALSO SEE A GRADUAL RAISE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...WITH
90 DEG READINGS RETURNING TO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER COLORADO.
AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED FOR 12Z ISSUANCES WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
THEN SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AMOUNT OF
TEMPO CONDITIONS MAY BE OVERDONE IN TERMS OF OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BUT HARD TO REALLY CUT THINGS DOWN TOO MUCH UNTIL THE
REALITY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS REALLY OUT THERE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND TO THE NORTHEAST BUT NOT A REAL STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
HYDROLOGY...GIVEN SOME OF THE SUSPECT MOISTURE VALUES IN THE MODELS AM
RELUCTANT ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL STILL
BE MOVING AT 10-15KT BUT STORM TRAINING STILL A POSSIBILITY. BURN
SCARS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND LIMITED TO THE BURN AREAS.
CERTAINLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AND RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE OVER AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
440 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...THE BROAD UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER AROUND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A RESULTING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
COLORADO...WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL HOLDING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM GPS ARE OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH THE SURFACE TROF
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO. HARD TO TELL WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LITTLE PRESSURE RISE REFLECTION
ACROSS WYOMING. MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING THOUGH IT WILL BE SHALLOW. HARD TO REALLY MAKE MANY
CHANGES IN THIS UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE TREND FOR
HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. HOWEVER STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT OF MODEL DEPICTION OF TOO
MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO WET FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AS COMPARED TO
REALITY. LATEST LOOK AT THE HRRR ACTUALLY DROPS DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 40S OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND SEEPING OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. LOWER POPS FURTHER EAST
IN THE DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF TALL UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR UP OVER COLORADO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION..A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR UPSLOPE. WITH MEAN
LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN THE 6-8 G/KG RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...CHANCES ARE GOOD WE/LL
SEE PERIODS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...AND PARTICULARLY OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE MODEL
QPF FIELDS INDICATE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS BY MONDAY. AS
WAS NOTED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS ESPLY THE
GFS HAVE BEEN OVER DOING QPF AMOUNTS AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR
SOME TIME NOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
FCST GRIDS BELOW VALUES OFFERED BY THE MODELS...HOWEVER WILL HANG
ONTO THE 40-50 PCT POPS ON THE PLAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS AND
LIKELY POPS AT MTN LOCATIONS PRETTY MUCH FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
FURTHERMORE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50-60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. CAN/T
ARGUE WITH THAT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY THE GFS APPEAR
TOO COOL EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WOBBLING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MTN REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY. THIS CAUSES WINDS ALOFT..ALBEIT IT LIGHT
WINDS...TO REVERSE AND COME FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...CONSEQUENTLY CAUSING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
TO DIVERT WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
REGIONS. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A COMPLETE SHUT OFF OF THIS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UNTIL TUESDSAY OR WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP THE LAST OF THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD ALSO SEE A GRADUAL RAISE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...WITH
90 DEG READINGS RETURNING TO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED FOR 12Z ISSUANCES WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
THEN SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AMOUNT OF
TEMPO CONDITIONS MAY BE OVERDONE IN TERMS OF OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BUT HARD TO REALLY CUT THINGS DOWN TOO MUCH UNTIL THE
REALITY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS REALLY OUT THERE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND TO THE NORTHEAST BUT NOT A REAL STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...GIVEN SOME OF THE SUSPECT MOISTURE VALUES IN THE MODELS AM
RELUCTANT ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL STILL
BE MOVING AT 10-15KT BUT STORM TRAINING STILL A POSSIBILITY. BURN
SCARS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND LIMITED TO THE BURN AREAS.
CERTAINLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AND RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE OVER AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1141 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.AVIATION...TSRA JUST ABOUT OVER FOR TONIGHT...WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNRISE. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT KCOS BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND KPUB BY 18Z. TSRA LIKELY AT KCOS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CHANCE FOR STORMS AT KPUB AND
KALS AS WELL. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE MOIST THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH ANY TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY PALMER DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS STILL TAPPING MODERATE DEW POINTS IN 50S TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO IN SPITE OF THE MIXING...SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S OUT EAST. SO FAR THIS HAS
KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS. POCKETS OF DRIER AIR HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE AND LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH MOST APPARENT EMBEDDED
WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS UT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WHERE PRECIP WATERS ARE RUNNING THE HIGHEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS SE
CO...SO HAVE NUDGED SOME ISOLATED POPS A TOUCH FARTHER EAST.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR EASTWARD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MORE
HIGH BASED WITH LCLS AROUND H6. HRRR DEVELOPS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR BETWEEN 4-5 PM
WITH AROUND .25 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE SHOULD IT IMPACT THE BURN
SCAR. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE LAYER...STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
ON THE BURN SCAR...AND THESE MODEL PREDICTED AMOUNTS LOOK IN THE
BALL PARK. THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF DIURNALLY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL
HANG ON TO SOME ISOLATED -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BENEATH THE
MONSOON PLUME.
ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO EL PASO COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME RESIDES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...HOWEVER WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO CURRENTLY IN THE 50S...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MORE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE SCENARIO THAT PLAYED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
RAISES CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR AS
THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO LIE UP ACROSS THIS
REGION...THERE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHER FOR THIS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY VERSUS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS SCENARIO GET RESOLVED BY
HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS (WRF...RUC13...HRRR) BEFORE
PULLING THE TRIGGER ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FORECASTING...AND
WILL DEFER THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN AND
NEAR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED
AWARENESS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING AS WE TRANSITION INTO
MOISTER ENVIRONMENT AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE OF A
GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT... FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD OVER THE CWA. THE GFS/NAM12 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DROPPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH MODELS ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWING DEWPOINTS OF MID 50S TO NEAR 60 BEHIND
THE FRONT BY 15Z SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL
QPF MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS A DISTINCT TRIGGER IS HARD TO IDENTIFY
GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DATA. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...AND HARD TO TIME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW PASSING OVERHEAD...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ACROSS THE REGION. 500MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE...AT BEST...
5-10KTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO GET A MORE DETAILED PICTURE OF HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
MAY FALL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE WALDO
CANYON FIRE BURN SCAR.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AVERAGE OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM
RECENT 18-20C READINGS TO THE LOWER TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 8-10C RANGE SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS IS ONLY 87F
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ENDING A LONG RUN OF 90-100+
TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED
OVER THE PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING
CENTERED NEAR UTAH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...I-25
CORRIDOR (INCLUDING THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR.)...AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 500MB BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ADVECT SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO KEEP
AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR OR EASTERN PLAINS. -PJC
AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF SITES IN THE 12-24 KT
RANGE THROUGH 02-03Z. VFR CIGS AND GUSTIER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR -TSRA THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO GET
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT KALS. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN VCTS
AT KCOS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 21-22Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT KCOS BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND AT KPUB BY
15Z. -TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCOS TAF SITE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. KALS WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS LOOK LIGHTER IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10/44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
956 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND
PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
WITH SEVERAL WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SVR WATCH TAKEN DOWN. ONLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO COOL OFF A BIT AND
BEGIN TO DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
90S FOR ONE MORE DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS
DELMARVA, WILL HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE A BIT LONGER AND HAVE ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABOUT PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
VALUES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THEN MORE SO TO POINTS FROM PHILADELPHIA ON
SOUTH. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS NOT AS SOLID AS THE WRF-NMMB AND ITS
VERIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION WAS OFF TO A POOR START. COMBINED
WITH NO CORROBORATIVE SUPPORT FROM THE CAN GGEM OR UKMET, THE LONG
TERM LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF THAN THE GFS THRU THE END OF ITS
MODEL RUN AND MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THE REST
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN SUMMARY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND THEN A LIKELY BACKING OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN ITS JULY AND
HOW STUBBORNLY HOT THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD STRUGGLING SOLUTION TO VERIFY. SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THE FORECAST OUTCOME NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWEST CENTRAL. WHILE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING, THE BACKING FLOW SHOULD MAKE IT MORE
HUMID LATE IN THE WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MAX
TEMPS TO REACH 90F.
THE MESOSCALE MODELING DID NOT HAVE THE INITIAL MCS AROUND NY/NJ/PA
AND THE HRRR VERSIONS THAT DID ARE TOO ROBUST BEYOND THEM. THEY ALL
HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION ASIDE, THE SLOWING FRONT AND
STILL AMPLY HOT AIR MASS SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST CONTINUE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT SEEING UPSTREAM CAPPING BEYOND TODAY FOR
THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE LESSER CHANCES OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
MIN TEMPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY WARM AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT LOSING ALL
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING LESS OF A CAP SOUTH THAN
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE DELINEATION NEAR THE PA TURNPIKE AND
INTERSTATE 195 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CLOSE TO WHERE POPS WERE CUT OFF.
POPS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH IN DELMARVA WITH LESS
CAPPING PREDICTED AND HIER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE SUN THAN WHAT THE GFS IS
PREDICTING AND THUS MAX TEMPS LEANED TOWARD HIGHER NAM MOS.
ITS PRETTY MUCH A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHERE THE CAPPING OF CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE PHL
METRO AREA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H250 JET REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH, NOT SO NORTH ALONG THE HIER TERRAIN AS THE
GFS HAS DEPICTED ON TUESDAY DAY. BECAUSE OF CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH MINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WE REALLY DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT BRING MORE
CLARITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BACK MORE TOWARD OUR
CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WE DID UP POPS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WAS A BLEND OF LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE ON OUR OWN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND MAKES IT
WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN HAZE, AS THE HOT, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING IT
WILL JUST CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT IT MAY
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...REMAINING CONVECTION MAY AGAIN CAUSE SCATTERED
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN SITES. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THAT ARE FROM KPHL SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CONTINUES ON ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE
OCEAN. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
AS LONG AS NO SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF SUCH A LOW DEVELOPING ARE SMALL,
BUT THE CHANCES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
AND CAUSING SOME RISE IN SEAS IS PRETTY GOOD AS THE PERIOD WEARS
ON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXES FOR OUR EIGHT CLI SITES FOR JULY 7TH...
SO FAR NEW RECORDS WERE SET AT GEORGETOWN AND ATLANTIC CITY AND
READING TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH.
KACY 98 1986,2010
KPHL 103 2010
KILG 103 2010
KABE 99 2010
KTTN 103 2010
KGED 97 2010
KRDG 101 2010
KMPO 95 1908
BELOW ARE ALL TIME RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR LCD SITES...
KABE 105 7/3/1966
KACY 106 6/28/1969
KPHL 106 8/7/1918
KILG 107 8/7/1918
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES/MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
706 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND
PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
WITH SEVERAL WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WE SHAVED BACK SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE WATCH COUNTIES NORTH AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE NON URBANIZED HEAT WARNINGS AND OR
ADVISORIES AS THE CURRENT HEAT INDICES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
ESTABLISHED CRITERIA.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR
AREA TONIGHT.
THE MCS MOVED ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ONLY SOME LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. A DECENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW
DEGREES AND BRING A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND BUT IT WON`T LAST LONG.
THE EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WE WILL REMAIN VERY WARM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 70S BUT IN THE
URBAN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER CLOSER TO 80.
THE FIRST SHOT OF CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AIRMASS
DOMINATED BY CIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. WHILE THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MECHANICAL TRIGGER TO RELEASE THE INSTABILITY...AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE SINCE THE FIRST SHOT.
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION...WHICH WAS THE
REMNANT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA WHERE CIN HAS BEEN REMOVED...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS
SHOWED THAT BULK SHEAR INCREASING AS WELL...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACCOMPANIES THE CONVECTION.
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTH LEHIGH
VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BY ABOUT
2200 UTC. BY THAT TIME...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE SHED MOST
OF ITS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP. THE INCREASING SHEAR SUGGESTS MULTIPLE CELL
STRUCTURE (AS WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR NOW).
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CAPE PROFILE...INCREASING WIND
SHEAR...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. LARGE HAIL MAY BE A TOUGH SELL...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15000 FEET AND HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO COOL OFF A BIT AND
BEGIN TO DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
90S FOR ONE MORE DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS
DELMARVA, WILL HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE A BIT LONGER AND HAVE ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABOUT PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
VALUES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THEN MORE SO TO POINTS FROM PHILADELPHIA ON
SOUTH. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS NOT AS SOLID AS THE WRF-NMMB AND ITS
VERIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION WAS OFF TO A POOR START. COMBINED
WITH NO CORROBORATIVE SUPPORT FROM THE CAN GGEM OR UKMET, THE LONG
TERM LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF THAN THE GFS THRU THE END OF ITS
MODEL RUN AND MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THE REST
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN SUMMARY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND THEN A LIKELY BACKING OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN ITS JULY AND
HOW STUBBORNLY HOT THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD STRUGGLING SOLUTION TO VERIFY. SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THE FORECAST OUTCOME NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWEST CENTRAL. WHILE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING, THE BACKING FLOW SHOULD MAKE IT MORE
HUMID LATE IN THE WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MAX
TEMPS TO REACH 90F.
THE MESOSCALE MODELING DID NOT HAVE THE INITIAL MCS AROUND NY/NJ/PA
AND THE HRRR VERSIONS THAT DID ARE TOO ROBUST BEYOND THEM. THEY ALL
HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION ASIDE, THE SLOWING FRONT AND
STILL AMPLY HOT AIR MASS SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST CONTINUE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT SEEING UPSTREAM CAPPING BEYOND TODAY FOR
THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE LESSER CHANCES OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
MIN TEMPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY WARM AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT LOSING ALL
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING LESS OF A CAP SOUTH THAN
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE DELINEATION NEAR THE PA TURNPIKE AND
INTERSTATE 195 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CLOSE TO WHERE POPS WERE CUT OFF.
POPS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH IN DELMARVA WITH LESS
CAPPING PREDICTED AND HIER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE SUN THAN WHAT THE GFS IS
PREDICTING AND THUS MAX TEMPS LEANED TOWARD HIGHER NAM MOS.
ITS PRETTY MUCH A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHERE THE CAPPING OF CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE PHL
METRO AREA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H250 JET REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH, NOT SO NORTH ALONG THE HIER TERRAIN AS THE
GFS HAS DEPICTED ON TUESDAY DAY. BECAUSE OF CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH MINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WE REALLY DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT BRING MORE
CLARITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BACK MORE TOWARD OUR
CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WE DID UP POPS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WAS A BLEND OF LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE ON OUR OWN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND MAKES IT
WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN HAZE, AS THE HOT, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING IT
WILL JUST CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT IT MAY
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...REMAINING CONVECTION MAY AGAIN CAUSE SCATTERED
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN SITES. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THAT ARE FROM KPHL SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CONTINUES ON ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE
OCEAN. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
AS LONG AS NO SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF SUCH A LOW DEVELOPING ARE SMALL,
BUT THE CHANCES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
AND CAUSING SOME RISE IN SEAS IS PRETTY GOOD AS THE PERIOD WEARS
ON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXES FOR OUR EIGHT CLI SITES FOR JULY 7TH...
SO FAR NEW RECORDS WERE SET AT GEORGETOWN AND ATLANTIC CITY AND
READING TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH.
KACY 98 1986,2010
KPHL 103 2010
KILG 103 2010
KABE 99 2010
KTTN 103 2010
KGED 97 2010
KRDG 101 2010
KMPO 95 1908
BELOW ARE ALL TIME RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR LCD SITES...
KABE 105 7/3/1966
KACY 106 6/28/1969
KPHL 106 8/7/1918
KILG 107 8/7/1918
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES/MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND
IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES DEPICT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. UPDATED
GRIDS SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS S FLA TONIGHT
WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXPECTED TO THE S OF THE AREA
OVER THE FLA STRAITS. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE VCSH E COAST OVER NIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE TERMINALS AND WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED IF DIFFERENT CONDITIONS DEVELOP. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP INLAND
FROM THE TERMINALS AFT 08/15Z AND MOVE WEST INTO THE EVERGLADES. SURFACE
WINDS EASTERLY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KAPF...POSSIBLE VCSH
UNTIL 03Z THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM
KAPF AFT 08/18Z AND VCTS IN TAF. WINDS AT KAPF EASTERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WITH A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFT 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ... LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90`S EAST COAST BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY.
SOME AREAS IN THE INTERIOR CAN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90`S.
AS FAR AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE US BETWEEN NOW AND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NE US WITH A TRAILING FRONT POSSIBLY
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, INTERIOR, AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AREAS SOUTH
OF US 41, WHICH CONNECT MIAMI TO NAPLES, CAN SEE AN INCREASE IN THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.
MARINE...IN TERMS OF WINDS AND WAVES...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. OVERALL...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC SEAS NEAR 2 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION...(ISSUED 129 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012)
NORTHERN END OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSRA AND THIS WILL BE THE
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER INTERIOR AND W CST, WITH TSRA AND
PREVAILING VFR AT KAPF COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME BEING.
AFTER 00Z, SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE E CST WITH VCSH
AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS AND VSBYS, BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH OR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IN FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 91 78 89 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 90 / 10 40 20 30
MIAMI 79 92 78 90 / 10 40 20 30
NAPLES 77 91 77 91 / 10 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST HRRR/WRF/NAM MODEL REFLECTIVITIES GENERALLY REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AND INDICATE MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE DEVELOPING INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS
THE GULF/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO MERGE. THE HRRR IS THE
MORE BULLISH SOLUTION AND GENERATES SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OVER
THESE AREAS. PROVIDED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...MINUS 8 DEG C AT 500 MB AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE SEA BREEZES MERGING COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATER TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE S FL PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CYCLE REMAINS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING WNW ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SE. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND GENERALLY DAMPENS THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
AND SLIGHT ENHANCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AROUND THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE BAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 78 91 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 40
MIAMI 80 91 80 92 / 10 20 20 50
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 20 30 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
243 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/
.UPDATE...
STORMS TRYING TO REFIRE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
INTO ATL METRO. HAVE TWEAKED WX AND POP GRIDS AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR REST OF THE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.
SNELSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POP AND WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
ESP MCS OVER ERN TN. LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING MCS DOWN INTO NRN COUNTIES AROUND 00-01Z AND
INTO ATL METRO AROUND 02-03Z. SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING IN NORTH
GA. WILL UPDATE HWO AS WELL.
SNELSON
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS/NAM
AND ECMWF TO BUILD EASTWARD SOME FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION.
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FROM MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAKE IT
AROUND THE EASTERN POINT OF THE RIDGE...LIKE THE PAIR MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WELL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE IN PLACE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ISOLATED.
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY
HIGH...BUT COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
20
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG TERM PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING WEAK
IMPULSES TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. MODELS
AGREE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA...EVENTUALLY
SAGGING SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...SURFACE CAPES GREATER THAN 1500 EACH AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BELIEVE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE AS MODELS
MAY BE OVERDOING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATE LESS CLOUDS UNTIL HEATING KICKS IN EACH DAY AND HAVE
GONE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
ATWELL/17
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
TO VRB OVERNIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY NW UNDER 10KTS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND WESTERLY FOR KCSG AND KMCN AFTER
16Z. BKN100 CIGS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BECOME SCT060 AFTER 16Z AS
WELL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR 21-24Z... THEREFORE HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND VRB DUE TO ANY
NEARBY STORMS AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATE IN THE EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DURING AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 98 72 99 73 / 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 97 75 96 75 / 40 40 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 94 67 91 69 / 40 40 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 98 69 98 70 / 40 40 40 20
COLUMBUS 96 75 94 74 / 40 40 30 20
GAINESVILLE 97 73 98 74 / 40 40 40 20
MACON 96 74 96 73 / 40 40 30 20
ROME 98 69 98 70 / 40 40 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 96 69 95 71 / 40 40 30 20
VIDALIA 96 75 96 75 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....ATWELL/17
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
459 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER
WITH A LAKE BREEZE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST IL. SCT CU HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000+ J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...HOWEVER SUSPECTING THE 100
J/KG OF CIN IS HOLDING CONVECTION BACK. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A SMALL CAP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE IN THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...AND THE LAKE BREEZE IS NOT
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH LIGHT WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD FIRE...BUT BETTING AGAINST IT AND
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT FOR
LOW 80S DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DOWNTOWN.
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT REACH
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH MANY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN SEEING TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES. ONLY COOLER SPOTS
WOULD BE NEAR UGN AND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
TURN ON SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING RELIEF TO THE NEARSHORE
REGIONS FIRST. HOWEVER...EXPECTING LAKE FRONT AREAS TO REACH THEIR
DAYTIME MAX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES TOMORROW
EAST OF I-355...WITH 105 TO 119 EXPECTED IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...TEMPS WILL DROP
SUDDENLY...BUT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS...LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...PROVIDING THE FIRST REFRESHING NIGHT IN A
LONG TIME FOR MANY AREAS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS MOISTURE DISSIPATES AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. WAS NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WE NEED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO CAPE
TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY IS THE END OF THE WITHERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST...THOUGH THE 6 TO 10/8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC SUGGEST VERY WARM CONDITIONS MAY BE IN
STORE AGAIN BEYOND DAY 7. UNFORTUNATELY...NO RELIEF IS IN SIGHT FOR
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH AFTER
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS HEAT WAVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
BLOCKING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE PATTERN VERY SLOW
MOVING...BUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BE
ABLE TO KNOCK DOWN THE EVER PRESENT INTENSE MIDLEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD
COOL ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MERCIFULLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE LAKEFRONT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH
DRIER AND COMFORTABLE...AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE TRYING
TO HINT AT POST FRONTAL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT
INHERITED SLIGHT POPS TO SOUTHERN CWA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNDAY...NO REAL CONCERNS TO SPEAK OF...OTHER THAN CONTINUED
LACK OF RAINFALL...WHICH IS A CONCERN IN THIS WORSENING DROUGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE HIGH LOCKED OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING SYNOPTIC NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTING TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE...WARMEST ON MONDAY AND
THEN LIKELY WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. LIKELY DAILY LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS THE
CONTINUOUS HEAT THIS SUMMER HAS LEFT LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN JULY. DESPITE GFS
WANTING TO OCCASIONALLY PAINT QPF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DROUGHT...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE SUPERIOR AND STABLE ECMWF IN
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LAKE BREEZE HANGING UP OVER THE ORD AND MDW AIRFIELDS THE NEXT
HOUR TO TWO.
* VERY SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A ROGUE SHRA/TSRA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW REACHING ORD/MDW SHOULD CROSS OVER THE
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR LESS. SCATTERED CU HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA BUT LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
SHOW AT LEAST SOME INHIBITION KEEPING THE CU FROM DEVELOPING INTO
SHRA/TSRA. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OTHER THAN CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE SO THIS CAP MAY HOLD. DESPITE THIS...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 00Z BUT THE CHANCE
IS MINIMAL AND TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CONTINUE AT THE
TERMINALS WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY STILL CONTINUING INLAND.
BOUNDARY HAD SLOWED IN THE LAST HALF HOUR BUT HAS NOW STARTED TO
SPEED UP. DID SLOW ARRIVAL TIME AT ORD/MDW AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE
FIELDS. GYY HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH WITH THE LATEST OB. THE
BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A VARIABLE
BUT MAINLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO BE IN PLACE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING BUT A COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE ZERO.
FOCUS WOULD BE THE LAKE BREEZE BUT BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO BE NORTH
OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE. BEYOND THAT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. CHANCE
IS LOW AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SO WILL
LEAVE THE TAF DRY FOR NOW.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY
CLOSE IF NOT OVER THE ORD AND MDW AIRFIELDS THROUGH 2330Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS MINIMAL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF TSRA WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
BUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR...SLGT CHC TS.
MON THRU THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTER SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKE. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE...WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER
WITH A LAKE BREEZE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST IL. SCT CU HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000+ J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...HOWEVER SUSPECTING THE 100
J/KG OF CIN IS HOLDING CONVECTION BACK. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A SMALL CAP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE IN THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...AND THE LAKE BREEZE IS NOT
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH LIGHT WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD FIRE...BUT BETTING AGAINST IT AND
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT FOR
LOW 80S DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DOWNTOWN.
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT REACH
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH MANY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN SEEING TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES. ONLY COOLER SPOTS
WOULD BE NEAR UGN AND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
TURN ON SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING RELIEF TO THE NEARSHORE
REGIONS FIRST. HOWEVER...EXPECTING LAKE FRONT AREAS TO REACH THEIR
DAYTIME MAX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES TOMORROW
EAST OF I-355...WITH 105 TO 119 EXPECTED IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...TEMPS WILL DROP
SUDDENLY...BUT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS...LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...PROVIDING THE FIRST REFRESHING NIGHT IN A
LONG TIME FOR MANY AREAS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS MOISTURE DISSIPATES AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. WAS NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WE NEED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO CAPE
TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY IS THE END OF THE WITHERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST...THOUGH THE 6 TO 10/8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC SUGGEST VERY WARM CONDITIONS MAY BE IN
STORE AGAIN BEYOND DAY 7. UNFORTUNATELY...NO RELIEF IS IN SIGHT FOR
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH AFTER
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS HEAT WAVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
BLOCKING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE PATTERN VERY SLOW
MOVING...BUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BE
ABLE TO KNOCK DOWN THE EVER PRESENT INTENSE MIDLEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD
COOL ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MERCIFULLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE LAKEFRONT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH
DRIER AND COMFORTABLE...AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE TRYING
TO HINT AT POST FRONTAL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT
INHERITED SLIGHT POPS TO SOUTHERN CWA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNDAY...NO REAL CONCERNS TO SPEAK OF...OTHER THAN CONTINUED
LACK OF RAINFALL...WHICH IS A CONCERN IN THIS WORSENING DROUGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE HIGH LOCKED OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING SYNOPTIC NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTING TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE...WARMEST ON MONDAY AND
THEN LIKELY WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. LIKELY DAILY LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS THE
CONTINUOUS HEAT THIS SUMMER HAS LEFT LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN JULY. DESPITE GFS
WANTING TO OCCASIONALLY PAINT QPF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DROUGHT...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE SUPERIOR AND STABLE ECMWF IN
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.CLIMATE...
430 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY JULY 6TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...99 IN 1988....HIGH MIN T 80/1977.
ROCKFORD MAX T...102 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...73/1948.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AND ALSO AUGUST 4TH
THROUGH 6TH OF 1947.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE CROSSING THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WINDS
TURNING NORTHEASTERLY.
* MINIMAL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW REACHING ORD/MDW SHOULD CROSS OVER THE
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR LESS. SCATTERED CU HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA BUT LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
SHOW AT LEAST SOME INHIBITION KEEPING THE CU FROM DEVELOPING INTO
SHRA/TSRA. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OTHER THAN CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE SO THIS CAP MAY HOLD. DESPITE THIS...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 00Z BUT THE CHANCE
IS MINIMAL AND TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CONTINUE AT THE
TERMINALS WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY STILL CONTINUING INLAND.
BOUNDARY HAD SLOWED IN THE LAST HALF HOUR BUT HAS NOW STARTED TO
SPEED UP. DID SLOW ARRIVAL TIME AT ORD/MDW AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE
FIELDS. GYY HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH WITH THE LATEST OB. THE
BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A VARIABLE
BUT MAINLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO BE IN PLACE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING BUT A COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE ZERO.
FOCUS WOULD BE THE LAKE BREEZE BUT BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO BE NORTH
OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE. BEYOND THAT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. CHANCE
IS LOW AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SO WILL
LEAVE THE TAF DRY FOR NOW.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE CROSSING THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS MINIMAL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF TSRA WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
BUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR...SLGT CHC TS.
MON THRU THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTER SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKE. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE...WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
HOT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
END TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT...AND MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER A DROUGHT-BUSTING SOAKER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND ALLOW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GOING FORECAST MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. DID NOT CHANGE POPS...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO TEMPERATURES. HRRR DEVELOPS NO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ONLY ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS POWERFUL UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE. DYNAMICS ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL...SO
MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS ERRATIC TO NEARLY STATIONARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS INDIANA TO OHIO AND PA. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. SOME LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT
WAS HELPING THE FRONT AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS WERE POISED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 100S TODAY. NO PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME AS WELL AS LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACCORDING TO VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HRRR FAILED TO DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE
FRONT...AND NAM HOLDS OFF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS DO BEGIN TO O SHOW LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING AFT 06Z WITH SOME LIFT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL
TO SHOW SATURATION...BUT HINT AT JUST HEATING INSTABILITY.
DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE WEAK. THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR MASS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE STARTING POINT WHERE WE HAVE TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE A WARM AIR STILL LINGERING
ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN INVERSION. FURTHERMORE TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH LOOK TO BE
CLUSTERS OF ICE CRYSTALS AND WATER VAPOR IN THE SKY...ALSO KNOWN
AS CLOUDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AND THIS MAY ACT AS AN EXTRA FORCING
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SLIM TO NONE AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO BUILD...SLOWLY BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS WILL TRY TO KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRY NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME
HEADWAY. MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND AGAIN...A BIG RAIN WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN CLOUDS...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND NE SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA. NO SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
TYPE FORECAST WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTH. GIVEN SOME EXPECTED CLOUDS IN THE AREA WILL
TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE BROAD COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST APPEARS TO FINALLY PUSH THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AS A COOLER AND DRY NE SURFACE FLOW
PERSISTS. PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK THE WAY
TO GO AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND LITTLE CAPE. THUS WE WILL EXPECT
JUST A FEW CU. WILL USE A BLEND ON TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
LATEST MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND INDICATE DRY
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE INITIALIZATION IS
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR CONTINUITY.
CONSIDERING THIS AND ALSO MODELS TEND TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION
TOO FAST IN A DROUGHT...GOING TOTALLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOO EARLY TO DISCARD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN REGIONAL MODEL
HAS SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPS...REGIONAL MODEL NOT ALL BAD BUT AS IWX POINTED OUT
PROBABLY NEEDS TO BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE DAYS CONSIDERING EFFECTS
OF DRY GROUND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 080300Z TAF UPDATES/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A STORM SOUTHEAST OF IND THREW OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH CAUSED
THE WINDS AT IND TO TEMPORARILY SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS BEEN A TAD SLOWER THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT...SO DELAYED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL 04Z AT IND
AND HUF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND P6SM EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN A THUNDERSTORM.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR LAF AROUND ISSUANCE TIME...IND
AND HUF AROUND 02Z AND BMG AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SWITCH FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT NO IMPRESSIVE...SO COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE
TAFS UNLESS A STORM DEVELOPS NEAR A TAF SITE NEAR ISSUANCE TIME.
THEN...MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
HOT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
END TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT...AND MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER A DROUGHT-BUSTING SOAKER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND ALLOW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GOING FORECAST MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. DID NOT CHANGE POPS...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO TEMPERATURES. HRRR DEVELOPS NO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ONLY ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS POWERFUL UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE. DYNAMICS ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL...SO
MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS ERRATIC TO NEARLY STATIONARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS INDIANA TO OHIO AND PA. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. SOME LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT
WAS HELPING THE FRONT AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS WERE POISED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 100S TODAY. NO PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME AS WELL AS LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACCORDING TO VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HRRR FAILED TO DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE
FRONT...AND NAM HOLDS OFF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS DO BEGIN TO O SHOW LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING AFT 06Z WITH SOME LIFT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL
TO SHOW SATURATION...BUT HINT AT JUST HEATING INSTABILITY.
DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE WEAK. THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR MASS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE STARTING POINT WHERE WE HAVE TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE A WARM AIR STILL LINGERING
ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN INVERSION. FURTHERMORE TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH LOOK TO BE
CLUSTERS OF ICE CRYSTALS AND WATER VAPOR IN THE SKY...ALSO KNOWN
AS CLOUDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AND THIS MAY ACT AS AN EXTRA FORCING
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SLIM TO NONE AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO BUILD...SLOWLY BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS WILL TRY TO KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRY NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME
HEADWAY. MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND AGAIN...A BIG RAIN WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN CLOUDS...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND NE SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA. NO SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
TYPE FORECAST WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTH. GIVEN SOME EXPECTED CLOUDS IN THE AREA WILL
TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE BROAD COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST APPEARS TO FINALLY PUSH THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AS A COOLER AND DRY NE SURFACE FLOW
PERSISTS. PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK THE WAY
TO GO AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND LITTLE CAPE. THUS WE WILL EXPECT
JUST A FEW CU. WILL USE A BLEND ON TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
LATEST MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND INDICATE DRY
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE INITIALIZATION IS
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR CONTINUITY.
CONSIDERING THIS AND ALSO MODELS TEND TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION
TOO FAST IN A DROUGHT...GOING TOTALLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOO EARLY TO DISCARD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN REGIONAL MODEL
HAS SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPS...REGIONAL MODEL NOT ALL BAD BUT AS IWX POINTED OUT
PROBABLY NEEDS TO BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE DAYS CONSIDERING EFFECTS
OF DRY GROUND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 080000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 616 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND P6SM EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN A THUNDERSTORM.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR LAF AROUND ISSUANCE TIME...IND
AND HUF AROUND 02Z AND BMG AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SWITCH FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT NO IMPRESSIVE...SO COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE
TAFS UNLESS A STORM DEVELOPS NEAR A TAF SITE NEAR ISSUANCE TIME.
THEN...MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1109 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN...OR CLOUDS UNDER 25KFT SHOULD
OCCUR. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 6 MILES OR BETTER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 14Z...AFTER WHICH SOUTH AROUND 8
TO 10 KTS AGAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THIS WEATHER WILL MOVE
SOUTH...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.
ERVIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A LLJ RUNNING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. AN 850MB BOUNDARY/FRONT RAN FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE WAS POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN FROM THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA WITH DIURNAL CU AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD WEAK LOWS NEAR KLSE AND KSUX. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CONNECTED THE TWO LOWS AND RAN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO KFSD AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 60S AND SOME 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ABOVE THE LFC SO THERE REALLY IS NO CAP.
THE LACK OF A TRIGGER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK FORCING PER THE RAP MODEL. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TRUE COLD FRONT AND VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX OR MCV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT.
THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. RAP
TRENDS SHOW THE WEAK FORCING GETTING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN CWFA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MCS...LIFT...AND WAA TOOLS ALL SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS THAT MAY APPROACH THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST PARTS OF THE
CWFA. IF NOTHING DEVELOPS BY 6 PM...THEN THE CWFA SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST. THE GENESIS REGION SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA IN THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEAK LLJ. OUTFLOWS FROM
THIS MCS MAY INITIATE NEW CONVECTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE CWFA.
ASSUMING THE MINNESOTA MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST AS EXPECTED
THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT TAKE MOST OF
THE MORNING TO THIN AND DISSIPATE. THESE CLOUDS IN TURN SHOULD
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE BUT MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO OR 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN WITH NO CHANGES. DEW POINTS SHOULD
AGAIN DROP TONIGHT AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE CORN BECOMES
INACTIVE. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
POSSIBLY MID 70S AS THE CORN ACTIVELY EVAPOTRANSPIRATES. THE
RESULTANT HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD BE 105 TO 110. ..08..
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
BREAK IN THE HEAT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ARRIVING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT BRINGING THE RELIEF
UNFORTUNATELY DOESN/T FIGURE TO BRING MUCH IN WAY OF NEEDED RAINFALL
FOR AREA CORN CROPS IN CRITICAL POLLINATION STAGE. MOST OF THE
AREA IS NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PER THE LATEST
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED THIS AM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NGT. FRI
NGT WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING ABOVE 75. NOT
LIKELY TO SEE SFC BASED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SAT INTO SAT EVE DUE
TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION... WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ABSENCE OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL COOLING. THUS... ANY
PCPN WOULD BE POST-FRONTAL ROOTED WITH CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR TO
ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH WITH
MONSOONAL CONNECTION ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ TO OUR SOUTH. WITH LACK OF CONVECTION PRE-FRONTAL
THEN LESS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THUS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF NEEDING TO
EXTEND HEAT WARNING THROUGH SAT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA FOR
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100F AND HEAT INDICES
100-110+. 850 MILLIBAR FRONT OR WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AXIS PASSES
SUN INTO SUN EVE TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ASIDE FROM THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE HARD PRESSED TO FIND COHERENT FORCING OR TRIGGER TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED RAIN. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHC DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD
SAT-SUN.
MON-THU... GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS... AND RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND NORMAL WHICH
COUPLED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TO MAKE FOR NICE AND COMFORTABLE STRETCH
OF WEATHER. PCPN CHCS ARE NOT ZERO AS WE COULD SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES
PASS IN THE FLOW... BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND TIMING/STRENGTH
SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
906 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
THE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CEN AND SE KS. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO WANE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...AS HEATING COMES TO END. EXPECT
THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT ALL THE CONVECTION WILL
END OVER SERN KS AS A WEAK IMPULSE DRIFTS OVER SW MO. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER OVER CEN KS LATE THIS EVENING AS
WELL...AS THIS AREA IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
IS OOZING SOUTH INTO SRN KS. SO WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CEN KS AND
SOUTHEAST KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
HIT OR MISS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A VCTS
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO SEND OUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY CREATE VARIABLE OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS IN AROUND
THE COLLAPSING STORMS. MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND THE KHUT/KRSL TAF
SITES. COULD ALSO SEE A SOUTH MOVING OUTFLOW MAKE IT INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF ICT AS WELL. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING AFTER
02-03Z.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM KTOP TO NEAR KGBD. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO SRN KS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH EARLY ON
SUN. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS ON
SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS AS HIGHER INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
MODEL CONVECTION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SYNOPTIC MASS
FIELDS TO SUBJECTIVELY DETERMINE HIGHER POP AREAS PER 12Z MODEL
RUNS. HOWEVER IN VERY SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT
HANDLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR. 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN THE BALLPARK.
ADJUSTED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 1200 UTC RAOBS SUGGEST LESS
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...WITH ROUGHLY A 1000 J/KILOGRAM
CAPE AND NOT A LOT OF CIN. LEAD WIND SHIFT PUSHED THROUGH KHUT BY
MIDDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST INTO KRSL. WITH WEAK/
DISORGANIZED FLOW...EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. COULD
EASILY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FESTER
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE KS.
SUN-MON:
WITH PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES AND DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HARD
PRESSED TO PIN DOWN HIGHER CHANCES/AREAS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
SOME HINTS IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ROLL OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLIP FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK
MON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION AND GFS/ECMWF
MUCH LESS. APPEARS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK DURING
THE NIGHT AND ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST MAY BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
COLD POOL. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ON MON MORNING IN FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER BOTH
DAYS LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
LATEST MODELS SHOW FRONT HANGING UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ALONG OK BORDER THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP STATUS QUO AND LET MIDSHIFT REEVALUATE.
WED-SAT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER FLOW.
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES...
LEAVING FORECAST AREA NORTHWEST-NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND LOCATED
BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMALS. IN ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OR SIGNIFICANT INFLUX
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 94 73 90 / 20 30 30 20
HUTCHINSON 75 93 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
NEWTON 75 93 72 91 / 20 30 30 10
ELDORADO 74 94 72 91 / 30 30 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 96 76 90 / 30 30 30 20
RUSSELL 72 91 69 88 / 40 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 72 92 69 87 / 40 40 40 30
SALINA 76 91 73 90 / 40 30 30 10
MCPHERSON 74 92 70 91 / 30 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 77 93 74 89 / 30 30 30 20
CHANUTE 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
IOLA 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
HIT OR MISS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A VCTS
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO SEND OUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY CREATE VARIABLE OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS IN AROUND
THE COLLAPSING STORMS. MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND THE KHUT/KRSL TAF
SITES. COULD ALSO SEE A SOUTH MOVING OUTFLOW MAKE IT INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF ICT AS WELL. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING AFTER
02-03Z.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM KTOP TO NEAR KGBD. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO SRN KS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH EARLY ON
SUN. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS ON
SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS AS HIGHER INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
MODEL CONVECTION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SYNOPTIC MASS
FIELDS TO SUBJECTIVELY DETERMINE HIGHER POP AREAS PER 12Z MODEL
RUNS. HOWEVER IN VERY SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT
HANDLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR. 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN THE BALLPARK.
ADJUSTED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 1200 UTC RAOBS SUGGEST LESS
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...WITH ROUGHLY A 1000 J/KILOGRAM
CAPE AND NOT A LOT OF CIN. LEAD WIND SHIFT PUSHED THROUGH KHUT BY
MIDDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST INTO KRSL. WITH WEAK/
DISORGANIZED FLOW...EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. COULD
EASILY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FESTER
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE KS.
SUN-MON:
WITH PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES AND DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HARD
PRESSED TO PIN DOWN HIGHER CHANCES/AREAS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
SOME HINTS IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ROLL OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLIP FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK
MON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION AND GFS/ECMWF
MUCH LESS. APPEARS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK DURING
THE NIGHT AND ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST MAY BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
COLD POOL. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ON MON MORNING IN FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER BOTH
DAYS LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
LATEST MODELS SHOW FRONT HANGING UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ALONG OK BORDER THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP STATUS QUO AND LET MIDSHIFT REEVALUATE.
WED-SAT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER FLOW.
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES...
LEAVING FORECAST AREA NORTHWEST-NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND LOCATED
BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMALS. IN ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OR SIGNIFICANT INFLUX
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 94 73 90 / 20 30 30 20
HUTCHINSON 75 93 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
NEWTON 75 93 72 91 / 20 30 30 10
ELDORADO 74 94 72 91 / 30 30 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 96 76 90 / 30 30 30 20
RUSSELL 72 91 69 88 / 40 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 72 92 69 87 / 40 40 40 30
SALINA 76 91 73 90 / 40 30 30 10
MCPHERSON 74 92 70 91 / 30 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 77 93 74 89 / 30 30 30 20
CHANUTE 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
IOLA 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-067>072-
083-092>096-098>100.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-
048-049.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FALLS CITY TO SOUTH OF CONCORDIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LAY FROM OSKALOOSA THROUGH
TOPEKA AND HERINGTON. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA SAVE THE NORTHWEST CORNER. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CONVERGENCE FROM DODGE CITY
NORTHEAST TO NEAR TOPEKA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SURFACE BASED CAPE RUNNING IN
THE 1500 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOW INVERTED V SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY TOUCH
OFF SOME MORE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. ALSO COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS OF
HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WILL ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 FOR POOLING OF DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S WHICH IF IT OCCURS COULD PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND
100 DEGREES.
53
POST FRONTAL AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 850 MB WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE MAINLY SITUATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING SUNDAY MOST AREAS AND WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES) WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK WAVE AS UPPER FLOW
TRIES TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EVENING AND SOUTH OF
I-70...THEN CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST ON MONDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF THE
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT ALSO INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AS EASTERLY LLVL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND HEIGHT RISES INCREASE...SHOULD SEE
TEMPS START TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BACK
INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.
63
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SCT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 08Z...BUT PROBABILITY
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN FORECAST.
BLAIR
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ010>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
935 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BE SEEING THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL
FOR THE 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHWARD TRANSITION OF THE RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
POOLING OF DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL STILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL GENERATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
98 AND 104 DEGREES DURING THE PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO REPLACE THE
WARNING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION
THROUGH 6 PM CDT SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND OPAQUE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY...THIS
ADVISORY MAY BE CAN CELLED EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE 12KM HAM-WRF...4KM NAM-WRF /NMM VERSION/...3KM HRRR AND THE
SREF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
EXPLICIT CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ DEVELOPING IN THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AMORPHOUS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BISECT THE WFO PAH CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY...DIVERGENCE FROM THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WEST TENNESSEE...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SHARP
INCREASE IN POPS/WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FLARE UP IN CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST POPS
AND WEATHER WERE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THE INITIAL MODEL
GUIDANCE POPS AND WEATHER...BUT REMAIN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS.
AS THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY EVENING
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW BECOMES ELONGATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THE MEAN AXIS OF POP/WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...INITIALLY
MOVING OUT OF PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS
AND WEATHER ARE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT
SAT JUL 7 2012
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD BACK PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY...GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM...BUT THE GFS AND GEM ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. WILL DEFER TO THE ECMWF AND NAM WHICH HAVE BEEN
PREFERRED OF LATE.
THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
WEAK...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS RATHER BIZARRE TO SEE A TROUGH OF THIS SIZE
WITH A CENTRAL HEIGHT OF 583 OR 584DM. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS NOT MUCH
COOLING...OR THE TROUGH WOULD BE DEEPER. BY FRIDAY...SOME MODELS
CLOSE OFF A LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH IN OUR VICINITY...WHICH ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT AND IS
THEREFORE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...WARMEST AND DRIEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FAVORED THE ECMWF AND WENT A BIT ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND CONFINED POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO SLIGHT
CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO POPS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD FARTHER WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER BY
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER MILD NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
ANOTHER DAY WITH LIKE CONDITIONS...CONVECTIVE BLOW-0FF MID
CLOUDS...SHOULD SCATTER OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION PROBABLY
WILL SKIP THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CU DECKS
AROUND 5K FEET WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY TMRW...LEADING TO HEAT OF
DAY CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
102 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR WAS HANDLING THIS SET QUITE WELL AND
FOLLOWED W/IT THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA, BUT AS MORNING WEARS ON AND
SUN BEGINS TO WORK ON THE ATMOSPHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
W/SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY W/TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN
THE 80 FOR THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AT THE COAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER
INLAND TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION AND DECIDED TO HAVE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THERE.
IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION, THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS IN PART TO HEATING. MDL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY THE NAM RAMP UP THE SBCAPES TO 800-1200
JOULES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. LIS DROP TO -2 TO -5 W/K INDICES
OF 30+. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 30+ KTS. INHIBITING FACTORS ARE DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH ATTM APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO BELOW 700 MBS AND
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES <6.5C/KM. SOME MID LEVEL WARMING WILL
INHIBIT INITATION, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME COOLING AROUND
00Z AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 40-50 KTS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SPEED MAX COULD OFFSET THE WEAKER
LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION W/SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING
LEVELS ARE SHOWN TO BE AT 13+K FT. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT
THERE IS DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LLVL WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ROTATION IF STRONGER STORMS FIRE. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND SPC
ON THIS POTENTIAL AND THINKING ATTM ANY SEVERITY WILL BE ISOLD AND
KEPT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED BY
THE DAYCREW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS
FORCING LESSENS W/LEFTOVER SHOWERS. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT MINS USING
THE NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FRROM THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY.
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROJECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS KBGR/KBHB FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME CONCERN TO STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHICH COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. LLWS COULD BE A ISSUE W/THE TSTMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. SE SWELL CONTINUES AND DECIDED TO KEEP IT
GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
916 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE
IS SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING,
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE. THE GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED, SO NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR WAS HANDLING THIS SET QUITE WELL AND
FOLLOWED W/IT THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA, BUT AS MORNING WEARS ON AND
SUN BEGINS TO WORK ON THE ATMOSPHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
W/SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY W/TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN
THE 80 FOR THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AT THE COAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER
INLAND TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION AND DECIDED TO HAVE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THERE.
IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION, THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS IN PART TO HEATING. MDL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY THE NAM RAMP UP THE SBCAPES TO 800-1200
JOULES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. LIS DROP TO -2 TO -5 W/K INDICES
OF 30+. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 30+ KTS. INHIBITING FACTORS ARE DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH ATTM APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO BELOW 700 MBS AND
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES <6.5C/KM. SOME MID LEVEL WARMING WILL
INHIBIT INITATION, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME COOLING AROUND
00Z AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 40-50 KTS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SPEED MAX COULD OFFSET THE WEAKER
LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION W/SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING
LEVELS ARE SHOWN TO BE AT 13+K FT. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT
THERE IS DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LLVL WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ROTATION IF STRONGER STORMS FIRE. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND SPC
ON THIS POTENTIAL AND THINKING ATTM ANY SEVERITY WILL BE ISOLD AND
KEPT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED BY
THE DAYCREW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS
FORCING LESSENS W/LEFTOVER SHOWERS. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT MINS USING
THE NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FRROM THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY.
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROJECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS KBGR/KBHB FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME CONCERN TO STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHICH COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. LLWS COULD BE A ISSUE W/THE TSTMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. SE SWELL CONTINUES AND DECIDED TO KEEP IT
GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: MODIFIED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO PLAY FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR NEAR THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LLVL CLOUDS
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS UPPER RIDGE WORKS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
SUN AND HENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES. TWEAKED DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY UP
A FEW DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR WAS HANDLING THIS SET QUITE WELL AND
FOLLOWED W/IT THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA, BUT AS MORNING WEARS ON AND
SUN BEGINS TO WORK ON THE ATMOSPHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
W/SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY W/TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN
THE 80 FOR THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AT THE COAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER
INLAND TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION AND DECIDED TO HAVE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THERE.
IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION, THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS IN PART TO HEATING. MDL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY THE NAM RAMP UP THE SBCAPES TO 800-1200
JOULES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. LIS DROP TO -2 TO -5 W/K INDICES
OF 30+. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 30+ KTS. INHIBITING FACTORS ARE DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH ATTM APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO BELOW 700 MBS AND
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES <6.5C/KM. SOME MID LEVEL WARMING WILL
INHIBIT INITATION, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME COOLING AROUND
00Z AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 40-50 KTS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SPEED MAX COULD OFFSET THE WEAKER
LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION W/SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING
LEVELS ARE SHOWN TO BE AT 13+K FT. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT
THERE IS DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LLVL WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ROTATION IF STRONGER STORMS FIRE. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND SPC
ON THIS POTENTIAL AND THINKING ATTM ANY SEVERITY WILL BE ISOLD AND
KEPT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED BY
THE DAYCREW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS
FORCING LESSENS W/LEFTOVER SHOWERS. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT MINS USING
THE NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FRROM THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY.
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROJECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS KBGR/KBHB FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME CONCERN TO STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHICH COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. LLWS COULD BE A ISSUE W/THE TSTMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. SE SWELL CONTINUES AND DECIDED TO KEEP IT
GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
424 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR WAS HANDLING THIS SET QUITE WELL AND
FOLLOWED W/IT THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA, BUT AS MORNING WEARS ON AND
SUN BEGINS TO WORK ON THE ATMOSPHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
W/SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY W/TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN
THE 80 FOR THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AT THE COAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER
INLAND TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION AND DECIDED TO HAVE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THERE.
IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION, THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS IN PART TO HEATING. MDL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY THE NAM RAMP UP THE SBCAPES TO 800-1200
JOULES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. LIS DROP TO -2 TO -5 W/K INDICES
OF 30+. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 30+ KTS. INHIBITING FACTORS ARE DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH ATTM APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO BELOW 700 MBS AND
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES <6.5C/KM. SOME MID LEVEL WARMING WILL
INHIBIT INITATION, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME COOLING AROUND
00Z AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 40-50 KTS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SPEED MAX COULD OFFSET THE WEAKER
LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION W/SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS FREEZING
LEVELS ARE SHOWN TO BE AT 13+K FT. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT
THERE IS DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LLVL WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ROTATION IF STRONGER STORMS FIRE. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND SPC
ON THIS POTENTIAL AND THINKING ATTM ANY SEVERITY WILL BE ISOLD AND
KEPT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED BY
THE DAYCREW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS
FORCING LESSENS W/LEFTOVER SHOWERS. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT MINS USING
THE NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FRROM THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY.
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROJECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS KBGR/KBHB FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME CONCERN TO STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHICH COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. LLWS COULD BE A ISSUE W/THE TSTMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. SE SWELL CONTINUES AND DECIDED TO KEEP IT
GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDIFIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ALLEGAN COUNTY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONT. THESE ARE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS US-131 AND WEAKENING. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC POP
THROUGH 06Z. DRY WX EXPECTED AT THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE NSSL WRF...THE SPC
WRF AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS THINKING. THE COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY AS A FINE LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MUSKEGON SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS AND EATON RAPIDS. THE
FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN AREAS FROM
MUSKEGON TO WALKER...BUT THUS FAR NO CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.
MODIFYING THE MORNING DTX SOUNDING TO A 97/70 T/TD YIELDS CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS EITHER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OR THE LAKE BREEZE. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS POST
FRONTAL ALONG AN ELEVATED COLD FRONT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.
IF WE SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR LAKE BREEZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM GRAND RAPIDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD EATON RAPIDS AS RADAR IS INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF REFLECTIVITY FOR A BOUNDARY (20-25 DBZ) IN SPOTS.
AFTER TONIGHT...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. LOOKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WX. IT
APPEARS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTER OF THE
STATE TOWARD LAN AND JXN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE MID RANGE MODELS... IN GOOD AGREEMENT... CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOVE
TO A COOLER REGIME. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST... AS UPPER TROUGHING WORKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL WORK IT/S WAY SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
AN AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS (VFR CIGS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. THEN CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS MUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH PROBLEM FOR THE TAF SITES AS
IT SHOULD BE EAST OF MOST OF THEM BY 06Z. THEY SHOULD BE EAST OF
JXN BY 0730Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
CONTINUING THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
IS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WEBCAMS SHOWING A LOT OF WHITE CAPS AT MUSKEGON AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS REPORTING 4.8 FOOT WAVES AT 250 PM. THE
MUSKEGON GLERL BUOY IS BACK IN THE WATER AND IT IS INDICATING MAX
WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND BUILDING. SO...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE WAVES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THE 3-5 FOOTERS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH HAVEN AND
ST. JOSEPH THIS EVENING. THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA/BH.S CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HOLLAND MAY SEE WINDS AND WAVES PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE FLOW COMES BACK NORTHERLY AGAIN FROM OFF
SHORE.
AFTER SUNDAY....HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW...AS THE BULK OF THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS APPEAR DRY. NOT GOOD FOR
THOSE NEEDING RAIN WHICH IS MOST AREAS.
ONLY REAL HYDRO CONCERN ARE THE POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH
WOULD PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GRR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 98 SET IN 1936 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 98 SO FAR WHICH TIES THE RECORD.
MKG RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 93 SET IN 1897 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 92 SO FAR TODAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ056-064-
071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ037-043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
CLIMATE...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
933 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDIFIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ALLEGAN COUNTY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONT. THESE ARE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS US-131 AND WEAKENING. INCLUDED A SLGHT CHC POP
THROUGH 06Z. DRY WX EXPECTED AT THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE NSSL WRF...THE SPC
WRF AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS THINKING. THE COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY AS A FINE LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MUSKEGON SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS AND EATON RAPIDS. THE
FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN AREAS FROM
MUSKEGON TO WALKER...BUT THUS FAR NO CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.
MODIFYING THE MORNING DTX SOUNDING TO A 97/70 T/TD YIELDS CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS EITHER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OR THE LAKE BREEZE. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS POST
FRONTAL ALONG AN ELEVATED COLD FRONT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.
IF WE SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR LAKE BREEZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM GRAND RAPIDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD EATON RAPIDS AS RADAR IS INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF REFLECTIVITY FOR A BOUNDARY (20-25 DBZ) IN SPOTS.
AFTER TONIGHT...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. LOOKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WX. IT
APPEARS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTER OF THE
STATE TOWARD LAN AND JXN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE MID RANGE MODELS... IN GOOD AGREEMENT... CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOVE
TO A COOLER REGIME. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST... AS UPPER TROUGHING WORKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL WORK IT/S WAY SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED FOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE JXN TAF SITE
UNTIL 01Z.
THE COLD FRONT CLOUD BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
I-96 TO I-94 AREA AS I WRITE THIS AROUND 2245Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS (NOT MUCH LIGHTING WITH THE CELLS) WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
NAM12 SHOWS STRONG LIFT IN THE 950 TO 925 MB LAYER WERE THE
SHOWERS WERE AT 21Z... THIS AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 03Z. THAT WILL END ANY RISK OF RAIN FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT SHOW MUCH CLOUD POTENTIAL BEHIND THE
FRONT SO BY 03Z MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CLEAR OR NEAR CLEAR
SKIES. LAN AND JXN MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY BUT EVEN THERE BY 09Z OR SO SKIES
SHOULD GO CLEAR. JUST A NORTH WIND BELOW 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
CONTINUING THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
IS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WEBCAMS SHOWING A LOT OF WHITE CAPS AT MUSKEGON AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS REPORTING 4.8 FOOT WAVES AT 250 PM. THE
MUSKEGON GLERL BUOY IS BACK IN THE WATER AND IT IS INDICATING MAX
WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND BUILDING. SO...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE WAVES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THE 3-5 FOOTERS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH HAVEN AND
ST. JOSEPH THIS EVENING. THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA/BH.S CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HOLLAND MAY SEE WINDS AND WAVES PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE FLOW COMES BACK NORTHERLY AGAIN FROM OFF
SHORE.
AFTER SUNDAY....HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW...AS THE BULK OF THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS APPEAR DRY. NOT GOOD FOR
THOSE NEEDING RAIN WHICH IS MOST AREAS.
ONLY REAL HYDRO CONCERN ARE THE POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH
WOULD PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GRR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 98 SET IN 1936 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 98 SO FAR WHICH TIES THE RECORD.
MKG RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 93 SET IN 1897 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 92 SO FAR TODAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ056-064-
071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ037-043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
CLIMATE...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WILL SUM IT ALL UP QUICKLY: CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...DECENT...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINS
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...WISH IT WERE BETTER. INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING...AS TIGHT (AND TIGHTENING) THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES INTERACTS WITH EXCELLENT REMAINING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOISTURE SURGE. EARLIER WELL ORGANIZED
NORTHERN PLAINS MCS THIS MORNING A BYPRODUCT OF THESE FEATURES...
ALTHOUGH THIS HAS QUICKLY DECAYED WITH DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LOW
LEVEL JET. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST LAKES (ALREADY BEGINNING TO RAMP UP OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WITH RAP AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY SHOWING A WELL
ORGANIZED THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...COUPLED NICELY
WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES. ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THE
ABOVE AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THIS POTENTIAL...SPECIFICALLY
PLACEMENT OF STEADIER RAINS AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL (IF ANY).
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
LAKES THIS EVENING...AS REGION COMES UNDER THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...AND RENEWED SURGE
OF WARMTH/MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 850-750MB FGEN CIRCULATION
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AS A RESULT (ALMOST A CLASSIC COOL SEASON LOOK
TO IT)...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING INTENSE LIFT WARM CORE SIDE
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A DECENT AREA OF RAIN OVER THAT
AREA...SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT DOES
THE SAME. IN ADDITION...STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS FOR RENEWED MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS WEAKISH LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT SLOWLY BOWING NORTH ACROSS THE BADGER
STATE. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO (WEAK JET)...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY SYSTEM WILL RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE TO THE
NORTH...NAM-WRF MU CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2K J/KG OF CAPE
LIFTING A PARCEL FROM 800MB...SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND EVENT (ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM COLD POOLS CONGEAL). WHILE THIS
IS A LOW THREAT SCENARIO...HARD TO COMPLETELY IGNORE LATEST SPC
SLIGHT RISK STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS ALL
CONTINGENT ON WHAT CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. KINDA A WHAT
AND SEE APPROACH.
THE RELIEF BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS. STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING RAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
STABLE 5-WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE TO START WITH
ONE LEG OF TROUGHINESS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS CONFIGURATION THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS DOES DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE SHARPER
RIDGING BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICA PATTERN FLATTENS/DE-AMPLIFIES LATE NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING SOME HEAT TO RETURN TO THE REGION. UPSHOT TO ALL
THIS...WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE BIG TIME HEAT THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OF LATE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO CLIMB BACK UP LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS/SATURDAYS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
NRN LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE A QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WITH THAT SAID...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAKER MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGHINESS DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/COOLER AIR ALOFT...MIGHT RESULT IN A
LOW END SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY. CHANCES APPEAR MUCH TO LOW TO MUDDY
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...MID 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR HIGHS.
LATER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAKENING IN TIME. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY/
FLATTEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MIGRATE
BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT
A RETURN TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF LATE...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
QUIET LATE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH INITIALLY BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...SLOWLY SIDING SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THUNDER THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS REALIZED LATER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE
PARTIALLY TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO...INTRODUCING VCTS WITH THE
INCOMING RAINS. SOME POSSIBILITY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...JUST NOT NEARLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO THAT ROUTE JUST YET. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BECOMING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LAKE BREEZE DOMINATE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TRACKS EAST OF US...WHILE ALSO
PRODUCING A SWATH OF RAIN...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST
MARYS RIVER SYSTEM...NO MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SUPPRESSING THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE IN ERN MONTANA IS ROTATING NNE UP THE
RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A SFC LOW IN ERN SD HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NCNTRL SD AND
CNTRL ND. CLOSER TO UPPER MI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IN
CNTRL/NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH H700-500 MOISTURE AND EDGE OF
EXITING 6.5-7.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
RIDGE...WHILE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT E. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PCPN MAINLY TO THE W OF LK SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS
OF IT TRYING TO BUILD E TOWARDS THE LK. OVER UPPER MI...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND HAS LED TO CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WITH
MID CLOUDS PUSHING EAST INTO THE WRN CWA AS THE DAY GOES ON. H850
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90S OVER THE SCNTRL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECT NEAR LK SUPERIOR DUE TO LIGHT NRLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WHICH WILL LEAD TO LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TD
VALUES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YEST...IN THE 50S...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE IN NRN WYOMING AND
ERN MONTANA WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
CAUSING THE WARM/HUMID WEATHER...ALONG WITH BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH
PRODUCED CONVECTION OVER NWRN SD/ND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT
STRETCHES FROM ND SE THROUGH CNTRL WI...THINK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STEER THE CURRENT CONVECTION MORE TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
BEST AREA OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE H500
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FARTHER TO
THE S...STRONG FGEN FROM H800 TO H650...WILL BE OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN SHIFT SSE TONIGHT. AS EXPECTED
TIGHT H850 THERMAL GRADIENT AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SRN UPPER
MI. THUS...EXPECT BEST PCPN CHANCES FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR THROUGH WRN
UPPER MI AND THEN SLIDING SE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
STRONGER NRLY H850 PUSH AND VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST S OF THE H850
FRONT. OVER THE NRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR...LLVL DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION MAY END UP LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z MODELS ON THE QPF AMNTS...AS
THEY RANGE FROM SWATHS OF 1-1.7IN ON THE NAM/GEM-REG TO 0.5-0.75IN
ON ECMWF/GFS. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER TWO...WITH
THE GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NW. LOOKING AT THE 21Z SREF
RUN...IT HAS A 30 PERCENT PROB OVER WRN U.P. OF 1.0IN OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND 50-70 PERCENT OF 0.5 OVER THE W HALF. PWATS ARE AROUND
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AMNTS SOME AND HAVE
TOTAL AMNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.0IN OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
WITH THESE AMNTS...WILL NEED TO WATCH IRON COUNTY AND PAINT RIVER
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF RAIN THEY HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK /RADAR
ESTIMATED OVER 8IN/. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THINK THE VEERING H850
WINDS WILL REALLY DIMINISH AMNTS AND HAVE LESS THAN 0.5IN E OF
MUNISING/MANISTIQUE.
FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. H850 LIFTED ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT IS RIGHT ALONG WI BORDER. IT IS A VERY SKINNY CAPE...WITH
NCAPE VALUES AROUND .08...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS
WOULD INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. 3HR SPC CALIBRATED
THUNDER PROBS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WI BORDER
TONIGHT...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI.
THEREFORE...WILL LIMIT CHANCE THUNDER TO THE WI BORDER AND JUST HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE GOING FORECAST.
ONLY HAVE TWO CONCERNS. ONE...IF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING IN
NCNTRL SD CAN STAY ON THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND HOLD OFF THE
STEERING FROM THE RIDGE...WHICH DOESN/T SEEM TOO LIKELY.
TWO...WOULD BE IF CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD
DISRUPT SOME OF THE LLVL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS
AREA. BUT WITH THE WAY THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GOING
IN THE DAKOTAS...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD STILL SEE RAIN
IF THAT OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SAGGING
TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AFTER ANY ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH EARLY. MAX READINGS SHOULD ALSO BE LOWER WITH
INLAND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. LIGHT NRLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S...FAVORABLE RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIOINS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND.
SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE AREA
IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SBCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD INLAND
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WOULD BE LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...GIVEN
THE GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS...PREFERRED THE ECMWF WHICH DOES NOT SHOW
ANY QPF.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NW FLOW THROUGH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOWER END PCPN CHANCES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
LOW. TENDED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF QPF...GIVEN THE GFS MOISTURE
BIAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MON CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S BY WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS ONGOING
SHRA HAVE BEEN FORMING IN WAVES FROM WESTERN UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN
MN. ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THESE WAVES OF PRECIP AT EACH SITE...BUT
POCKETS OF SMALLER -SHRA COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LULLS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER IN THE FIRST SIX HOURS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION. THE MORE DIFFICULT MATTER RESIDES WITH CIG AND VIS.
MOISTURE FROM RAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT
IWD AND CMX BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND SAW IN THE EVENING. NOT
TOO CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW SOME CIGS AND VIS COULD GO AT EACH SITE AS
SEVERAL UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING MVR CIGS...EVEN WITHOUT UPSLOPE AND
LAKE MOISTURE INFLUENCE. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
ONSHORE...MAY EVEN SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AT SAW OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MAY
REMAIN TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL WARMING CAN MIX OUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW
20 KTS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS JUST S OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE N. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SUPPRESSING THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE IN ERN MONTANA IS ROTATING NNE UP THE
RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A SFC LOW IN ERN SD HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NCNTRL SD AND
CNTRL ND. CLOSER TO UPPER MI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IN
CNTRL/NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH H700-500 MOISTURE AND EDGE OF
EXITING 6.5-7.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
RIDGE...WHILE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT E. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PCPN MAINLY TO THE W OF LK SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS
OF IT TRYING TO BUILD E TOWARDS THE LK. OVER UPPER MI...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND HAS LED TO CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WITH
MID CLOUDS PUSHING EAST INTO THE WRN CWA AS THE DAY GOES ON. H850
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90S OVER THE SCNTRL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECT NEAR LK SUPERIOR DUE TO LIGHT NRLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WHICH WILL LEAD TO LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TD
VALUES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YEST...IN THE 50S...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE IN NRN WYOMING AND
ERN MONTANA WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
CAUSING THE WARM/HUMID WEATHER...ALONG WITH BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH
PRODUCED CONVECTION OVER NWRN SD/ND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT
STRETCHES FROM ND SE THROUGH CNTRL WI...THINK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STEER THE CURRENT CONVECTION MORE TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
BEST AREA OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE H500
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FARTHER TO
THE S...STRONG FGEN FROM H800 TO H650...WILL BE OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN SHIFT SSE TONIGHT. AS EXPECTED
TIGHT H850 THERMAL GRADIENT AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SRN UPPER
MI. THUS...EXPECT BEST PCPN CHANCES FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR THROUGH WRN
UPPER MI AND THEN SLIDING SE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
STRONGER NRLY H850 PUSH AND VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST S OF THE H850
FRONT. OVER THE NRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR...LLVL DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION MAY END UP LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z MODELS ON THE QPF AMNTS...AS
THEY RANGE FROM SWATHS OF 1-1.7IN ON THE NAM/GEM-REG TO 0.5-0.75IN
ON ECMWF/GFS. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER TWO...WITH
THE GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NW. LOOKING AT THE 21Z SREF
RUN...IT HAS A 30 PERCENT PROB OVER WRN U.P. OF 1.0IN OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND 50-70 PERCENT OF 0.5 OVER THE W HALF. PWATS ARE AROUND
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AMNTS SOME AND HAVE
TOTAL AMNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.0IN OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
WITH THESE AMNTS...WILL NEED TO WATCH IRON COUNTY AND PAINT RIVER
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF RAIN THEY HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK /RADAR
ESTIMATED OVER 8IN/. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THINK THE VEERING H850
WINDS WILL REALLY DIMINISH AMNTS AND HAVE LESS THAN 0.5IN E OF
MUNISING/MANISTIQUE.
FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. H850 LIFTED ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT IS RIGHT ALONG WI BORDER. IT IS A VERY SKINNY CAPE...WITH
NCAPE VALUES AROUND .08...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS
WOULD INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. 3HR SPC CALIBRATED
THUNDER PROBS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WI BORDER
TONIGHT...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI.
THEREFORE...WILL LIMIT CHANCE THUNDER TO THE WI BORDER AND JUST HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE GOING FORECAST.
ONLY HAVE TWO CONCERNS. ONE...IF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING IN
NCNTRL SD CAN STAY ON THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND HOLD OFF THE
STEERING FROM THE RIDGE...WHICH DOESN/T SEEM TOO LIKELY.
TWO...WOULD BE IF CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD
DISRUPT SOME OF THE LLVL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS
AREA. BUT WITH THE WAY THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GOING
IN THE DAKOTAS...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD STILL SEE RAIN
IF THAT OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SAGGING
TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AFTER ANY ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH EARLY. MAX READINGS SHOULD ALSO BE LOWER WITH
INLAND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. LIGHT NRLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S...FAVORABLE RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIOINS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND.
SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE AREA
IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SBCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD INLAND
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WOULD BE LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...GIVEN
THE GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS...PREFERRED THE ECMWF WHICH DOES NOT SHOW
ANY QPF.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NW FLOW THROUGH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOWER END PCPN CHANCES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
LOW. TENDED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF QPF...GIVEN THE GFS MOISTURE
BIAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MON CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S BY WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN
MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THESE SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT EAST LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AND BRING MOD/HEAVY
RAIN TO MOST SITES. KCMX MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...BUT
KIWD/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS/CIGS DROP TO MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
THUNDER AT KIWD AND POTENTIALLY KSAW AS THE BEST INSTABILITY
GRADIENT RUNS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WI BORDER. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KIWD/KSAW WITH
THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW
20 KTS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS JUST S OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE N. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SUPPRESSING THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE IN ERN MONTANA IS ROTATING NNE UP THE
RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A SFC LOW IN ERN SD HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NCNTRL SD AND
CNTRL ND. CLOSER TO UPPER MI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IN
CNTRL/NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH H700-500 MOISTURE AND EDGE OF
EXITING 6.5-7.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
RIDGE...WHILE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT E. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PCPN MAINLY TO THE W OF LK SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS
OF IT TRYING TO BUILD E TOWARDS THE LK. OVER UPPER MI...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND HAS LED TO CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WITH
MID CLOUDS PUSHING EAST INTO THE WRN CWA AS THE DAY GOES ON. H850
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90S OVER THE SCNTRL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECT NEAR LK SUPERIOR DUE TO LIGHT NRLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WHICH WILL LEAD TO LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TD
VALUES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YEST...IN THE 50S...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE IN NRN WYOMING AND
ERN MONTANA WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
CAUSING THE WARM/HUMID WEATHER...ALONG WITH BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH
PRODUCED CONVECTION OVER NWRN SD/ND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT
STRETCHES FROM ND SE THROUGH CNTRL WI...THINK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STEER THE CURRENT CONVECTION MORE TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
BEST AREA OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE H500
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FARTHER TO
THE S...STRONG FGEN FROM H800 TO H650...WILL BE OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN SHIFT SSE TONIGHT. AS EXPECTED
TIGHT H850 THERMAL GRADIENT AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SRN UPPER
MI. THUS...EXPECT BEST PCPN CHANCES FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR THROUGH WRN
UPPER MI AND THEN SLIDING SE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
STRONGER NRLY H850 PUSH AND VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST S OF THE H850
FRONT. OVER THE NRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR...LLVL DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION MAY END UP LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z MODELS ON THE QPF AMNTS...AS
THEY RANGE FROM SWATHS OF 1-1.7IN ON THE NAM/GEM-REG TO 0.5-0.75IN
ON ECMWF/GFS. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER TWO...WITH
THE GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NW. LOOKING AT THE 21Z SREF
RUN...IT HAS A 30 PERCENT PROB OVER WRN U.P. OF 1.0IN OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND 50-70 PERCENT OF 0.5 OVER THE W HALF. PWATS ARE AROUND
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AMNTS SOME AND HAVE
TOTAL AMNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.0IN OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
WITH THESE AMNTS...WILL NEED TO WATCH IRON COUNTY AND PAINT RIVER
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF RAIN THEY HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK /RADAR
ESTIMATED OVER 8IN/. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THINK THE VEERING H850
WINDS WILL REALLY DIMINISH AMNTS AND HAVE LESS THAN 0.5IN E OF
MUNISING/MANISTIQUE.
FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. H850 LIFTED ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT IS RIGHT ALONG WI BORDER. IT IS A VERY SKINNY CAPE...WITH
NCAPE VALUES AROUND .08...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS
WOULD INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. 3HR SPC CALIBRATED
THUNDER PROBS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WI BORDER
TONIGHT...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI.
THEREFORE...WILL LIMIT CHANCE THUNDER TO THE WI BORDER AND JUST HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE GOING FORECAST.
ONLY HAVE TWO CONCERNS. ONE...IF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING IN
NCNTRL SD CAN STAY ON THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND HOLD OFF THE
STEERING FROM THE RIDGE...WHICH DOESN/T SEEM TOO LIKELY.
TWO...WOULD BE IF CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD
DISRUPT SOME OF THE LLVL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS
AREA. BUT WITH THE WAY THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GOING
IN THE DAKOTAS...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD STILL SEE RAIN
IF THAT OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SAGGING
TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AFTER ANY ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH EARLY. MAX READINGS SHOULD ALSO BE LOWER WITH
INLAND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. LIGHT NRLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S...FAVORABLE RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIOINS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND.
SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE AREA
IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SBCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD INLAND
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WOULD BE LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...GIVEN
THE GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS...PREFERRED THE ECMWF WHICH DOES NOT SHOW
ANY QPF.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NW FLOW THROUGH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOWER END PCPN CHANCES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
LOW. TENDED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF QPF...GIVEN THE GFS MOISTURE
BIAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MON CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S BY WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK HIGH PRES
DRIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS
AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS AFTN. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
THICKENING MID CLOUDS TODAY...AND SHRA COULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN
UPPER MI...KIWD IN PARTICULAR...LATER IN THE AFTN. MDT TO POSSIBLY
HVY SHRA WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MORE LIKELY AT KIWD/KSAW. CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW SHOULD
FALL TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY TO IFR. WHILE TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY
JUST TO THE S...THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT CERTAINLY
COULD SUPPORT TSRA AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTION UNTIL THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA TO OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW
20 KTS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS JUST S OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE N. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
516 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SUPPRESSING THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE IN ERN MONTANA IS ROTATING NNE UP THE
RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A SFC LOW IN ERN SD HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NCNTRL SD AND
CNTRL ND. CLOSER TO UPPER MI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IN
CNTRL/NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH H700-500 MOISTURE AND EDGE OF
EXITING 6.5-7.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
RIDGE...WHILE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT E. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PCPN MAINLY TO THE W OF LK SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS
OF IT TRYING TO BUILD E TOWARDS THE LK. OVER UPPER MI...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND HAS LED TO CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WITH
MID CLOUDS PUSHING EAST INTO THE WRN CWA AS THE DAY GOES ON. H850
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90S OVER THE SCNTRL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECT NEAR LK SUPERIOR DUE TO LIGHT NRLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WHICH WILL LEAD TO LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TD
VALUES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YEST...IN THE 50S...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE IN NRN WYOMING AND
ERN MONTANA WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
CAUSING THE WARM/HUMID WEATHER...ALONG WITH BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH
PRODUCED CONVECTION OVER NWRN SD/ND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT
STRETCHES FROM ND SE THROUGH CNTRL WI...THINK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STEER THE CURRENT CONVECTION MORE TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
BEST AREA OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE H500
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FARTHER TO
THE S...STRONG FGEN FROM H800 TO H650...WILL BE OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN SHIFT SSE TONIGHT. AS EXPECTED
TIGHT H850 THERMAL GRADIENT AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SRN UPPER
MI. THUS...EXPECT BEST PCPN CHANCES FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR THROUGH WRN
UPPER MI AND THEN SLIDING SE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH A
STRONGER NRLY H850 PUSH AND VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST S OF THE H850
FRONT. OVER THE NRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR...LLVL DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION MAY END UP LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z MODELS ON THE QPF AMNTS...AS
THEY RANGE FROM SWATHS OF 1-1.7IN ON THE NAM/GEM-REG TO 0.5-0.75IN
ON ECMWF/GFS. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN THE OTHER TWO...WITH
THE GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NW. LOOKING AT THE 21Z SREF
RUN...IT HAS A 30 PERCENT PROB OVER WRN U.P. OF 1.0IN OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND 50-70 PERCENT OF 0.5 OVER THE W HALF. PWATS ARE AROUND
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AMNTS SOME AND HAVE
TOTAL AMNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.0IN OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
WITH THESE AMNTS...WILL NEED TO WATCH IRON COUNTY AND PAINT RIVER
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF RAIN THEY HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK /RADAR
ESTIMATED OVER 8IN/. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THINK THE VEERING H850
WINDS WILL REALLY DIMINISH AMNTS AND HAVE LESS THAN 0.5IN E OF
MUNISING/MANISTIQUE.
FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. H850 LIFTED ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT IS RIGHT ALONG WI BORDER. IT IS A VERY SKINNY CAPE...WITH
NCAPE VALUES AROUND .08...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS
WOULD INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. 3HR SPC CALIBRATED
THUNDER PROBS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WI BORDER
TONIGHT...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI.
THEREFORE...WILL LIMIT CHANCE THUNDER TO THE WI BORDER AND JUST HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE GOING FORECAST.
ONLY HAVE TWO CONCERNS. ONE...IF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING IN
NCNTRL SD CAN STAY ON THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND HOLD OFF THE
STEERING FROM THE RIDGE...WHICH DOESN/T SEEM TOO LIKELY.
TWO...WOULD BE IF CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN CNTRL MN AND NW WI THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD
DISRUPT SOME OF THE LLVL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS
AREA. BUT WITH THE WAY THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GOING
IN THE DAKOTAS...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD STILL SEE RAIN
IF THAT OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SAGGING
TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AFTER ANY ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH EARLY. MAX READINGS SHOULD ALSO BE LOWER WITH
INLAND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. LIGHT NRLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S...FAVORABLE RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIOINS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND.
SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE AREA
IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SBCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD INLAND
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WOULD BE LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...GIVEN
THE GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS...PREFERRED THE ECMWF WHICH DOES NOT SHOW
ANY QPF.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NW FLOW THROUGH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOWER END PCPN CHANCES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
LOW. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF QPF...GIVEN THE GFS MOISTURE
BIAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MON CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY
WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK HIGH PRES
DRIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS
AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS AFTN. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
THICKENING MID CLOUDS TODAY...AND SHRA COULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN
UPPER MI...KIWD IN PARTICULAR...LATER IN THE AFTN. MDT TO POSSIBLY
HVY SHRA WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MORE LIKELY AT KIWD/KSAW. CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW SHOULD
FALL TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY TO IFR. WHILE TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY
JUST TO THE S...THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT CERTAINLY
COULD SUPPORT TSRA AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTION UNTIL THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA TO OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR REST OF THE AFTN
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO TONIGHT.
GUSTS AT HIGHER PLATFORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAY PUSH 20-25 KTS...
BUT OTHERWISE WILL BE 10-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SFC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
844 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...ADJUST CHC OF THUNDER TO SOUTH OF THE RIVER PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE SOME RETURNS
LATE TONIGHT. A DEW POINT FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
EVENING WITH THE MOIST AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ONLY THUNDER
THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SOUTH OF HWY 200 IN THE DRY SECTOR THAT CAME
OFF THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS EARLIER TODAY. 00Z SOUNDING IS
VERY DRY AT GGW IN THE MID LEVELS WHERE THE TFX SOUNDING SHOW A
MOIST MID LEVEL AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTION OF THE STATE. MODEL AND BUFR SOUNDINGS
FOR GGW ARE TOO MOIST WITH THE LATEST RUNS. WILL FOLLOW THE
TRENDS AND NOT GET TOO OVER EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. PROTON
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S...AND MIN TEMPS
STAYING LARGELY IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THAT
WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. GILCHRIST
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF AN ENCROACHING WESTERN
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCES ALONG AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODEL DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION
SHOWS A GENERAL SCATTERED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE EXCEPTION THAT WARRANTS CLOSER INSPECTION
AND MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR AT LEAST THE LAST
TWO MODEL RUNS..THE GFS PERSISTS IN SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GRANTED...NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS COME EVEN CLOSE TO HINTING AT
ANY KIND OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT...NEAR
THE SCOBEY...PLENTYWOOD...AND MEDICINE LAKE AREA COINCIDES WITH
THE MODEL DEPICTION OF A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BREAKING IT DOWN. THE GFS LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DOES NOT YET SHOW SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
MAKER. IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...THOUGH...TO SEE IF LONG TERM MODELS START TO
AGREE MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION DEPICTIONS WHICH WOULD RESULT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE.
OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AROUND THE EDGES OF OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY CONSTANTLY IN THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS
AND THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM
THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 10 AM AT ALL TERMINALS. THEN WILL DROP DOWN UNDER 10
KNOTS BY THE EVENING. RSMITH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
242 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT HOT CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS IN VICINITY OF
THE CAROLINAS...MAKING FOR COOLER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...LOCATED AS OF THIS WRITING JUST NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WITH NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS...AS MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED
ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS TO NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG MUCH OF THE
BORDER...AND TO NEAR 2000J/KG OR GREATER NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. MSAS
AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TROUGH...AND WHILE SOME SHORT-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS LEAVE
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DRY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...THE SURFACE
TROUGH...AND THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING AND DIMINISHING NORTH-
TO-SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND ANY LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHIFT
THIS SHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY AROUND 06Z. THE RAP IS ONE
SHORT-TERM MODEL THAT PORTRAYS A SCENARIO AS WILL BE FORECAST...WITH
THE LEAST CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ON
THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS
POSSIBLE IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND GET STRONG ENOUGH. IN FACT...
CUMULUS WAS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SHEAR
AXIS MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...LIKELY LAST AROUND
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO 70 TO 75 IN MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND KMEB AND KFAY...WITH LOWS SOLIDLY NEAR 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FROM THE NAM AND GFS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS. USING A BLEND OF DEW
POINTS FROM THE GFS...NAM...AND LATEST VERSIONS OF THE SREF AND
ECMWF...AND TRYING TO IGNORE EXTREMES...MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON END UP BEING FORECAST FROM
104 OR 105 TO AS HIGH AS 109 IN MOST AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TEMPERATURE WARMS
BEFORE SOME MODEST MIXING OF DEW POINTS OCCUR...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FOR AN HOUR OR SO HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 110 MAINLY TOWARD
KMEB AND KFAY. COORDINATED WITH KILM...AND FOR THIS ISSUANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY...EXPANDING IT WEST TO INCLUDE
RANDOLPH AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES IN COORDINATION WITH KRNK...AND
ALSO WHERE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST HEAT INDICES GET VERY CLOSE TO
105.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A LITTLE ON BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ALOFT AND A MID-LEVEL CAP THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO OVERCOME. NAM DOES FORECAST A WEAK 700MB SHEAR AXIS MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A MORE MODEST CAP.
1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.5C/KM...WITH SOME
DIMINISHING MOISTURE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE NORTH...
TO AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER
WHICH LEAVES PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF U.S. 64
ACTUALLY AT OR MAYBE JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY. UNDER
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...IT WILL PROBABLY BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IN A HOT AIR MASS WITH AT LEAST
SOME MOISTURE...BETTER SOUTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. IF ONE WOULD OCCUR...
LIKELY THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KMEB TO KRWI.
ANY DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHES DIURNALLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO FALL...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID 70S AS A RULE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER...IN PART...
DUE TO A GRADUALLY INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT
CURRENTLY WELL TO OUR NORTH STARTS ITS SLOW PUSH SOUTH. - DJF
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NE NOAM BEGINS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. ACROSS OUR AREA...SUBTLE CHANGES
WITH REGARD TO THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...
NOTED SUBTLE WARMING AT 850 MB AND LOLEV THICKNESS INCREASE OF ABOUT
10M SUGGEST HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100 WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. BASED ON WARMING AND AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAT
INDEX REACHING 110+ AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS (ESP ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES)...SO EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THIS
WILL BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THIS STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAYS. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
WITH THE MID LEVELS COOLING ABOUT 2C AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL
WARMING. NOTED FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY DEPARTING...THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY PULSE- TYPE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF GIVEN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINING WARM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (LOW-MID 70S). - NMP
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH IN TURN STALLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS TIME. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
REGARD TO THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WITH THE GFS
MOVING SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AND NORTHWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF PROVIDING
FINE DETAILS...BUT RATHER HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR COOLER
NEAR-SEASONABLE TEMPS AND THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SINCE THE ENHANCED JET FEATURES AND
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST... HAZARDS RELATED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIME MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATHER THAN
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE TOO SO BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NEWD WHILE LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE OH AND MS RIVER
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD WESTWARD...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS SUCH...POTENTIALLY WET
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MONDAY MAY STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL (MID-UPPER 80) WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (AROUND 70).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...AND THESE FIRST SHOULD OCCUR TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE EVENING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DIFFICULT TO NOTE THE TIMING OF THESE IN THE
TAFS...AND HAVE NOTED SOME VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR KRDU...KRWI...
AND KFAY...ENDING LAST AT KFAY AROUND 04Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG OR HAZE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN...THE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCORPORATE IN
THE 18Z VALID TAF.
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ANY LATE NIGHT OR MORNING LIGHT FOG OR
HAZE...CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND WEAKENS WHILE
LINGERING IN VICINITY OF THE AREA...A BETTER CHANCE OF ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOPS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO AT TIMES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODS OF BELOW MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.
RALEIGH-DURHAM... GREENSBORO...
07/06 102 1999 100 1977
07/07 102 2010 101 1977
07/08 103 1977 102 1977
FAYETTEVILLE...
07/06 99 1990
07/07 103 2010
07/08 102 1977
IF WE REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AT THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AIRPORT EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING TODAY...WE WILL HAVE SET A NEW
RECORD FOR THE NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 100+ DEGREE DAYS (6 DAYS).
THE EXISTING RDU RECORD IS 5 DAYS...SET ON JULY 20-24 IN 2011. THE
HIGH WAS 94 AT KRDU THIS PAST MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/NMP
LONG TERM...NMP
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
146 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JULY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY...
AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE
ANALYSIS PAINTS THE PICTURE TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHWEST
MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
IN NM/CO...AND ROTATING BACK DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IN THE
APPALACHIANS...HELPING TO FUEL OUR STORMS TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...S/SW RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH HAS
HELPED DRIVE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER HAS SLOWLY BEGUN TO WANE
THANKS TO LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
STRONGLY-NEGATIVE LI`S AS SHOWN ON BOTH NAM AND RUC FORECAST
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE TAPPED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS/BOUNDARIES...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER IMPULSE NOW ROTATING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.
LATEST SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTION IS NOW CAPPED TO BOTH
SURFACE BASED...AND MIXED LEVEL PARCELS...WITH LPL HEIGHTS OF
500-1000M NOW REQUIRED TO GAIN INSTABILITY. STILL...CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST...IN A LIMITED/ISOLATED FORM...FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SHALLOW HOWEVER...EVIDENCED BY DRY AIR ABOVE 600MB IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO EVEN LIGHTNING WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HRRR FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FAVORED ARW...WHICH AGREES WITH ONGOING FORECAST OF POP DECREASING
TO SILENT BY 2AM.
AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH NEAR TENNESSEE...A DECENT LLJ OF 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM
GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND...TO NEAR 80 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON FRIDAY WILL FLATTEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIME-
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LAYER OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BETWEEN
700-400 MB...WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. A DEEP LAYER
OF SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING HEIGHTS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S COMBINED WITH SB CAPE TO 2500 J/KG AND LI`S TO -6 WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH TO RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT EXPECT CHANCES TO BE HIGHER
FRIDAY AS A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MIDDAY HEATING. ALSO NOTABLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY IS DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE STEERED TOWARDS SHORE.
GIVEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REACH 105 AT MANY LOCATIONS. THEREFORE WILL RAISE ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY...AND ONE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY ALSO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF EXTREME
HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST COUPLED
WITH MID-70S DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THE DAY. THE HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAUSING THE HEAT
THIS WEEKEND WILL PASS VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY... WITH DECREASING 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
SHOWN ON GFS/ECMWF MODEL PLOTS. MONDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD THEREFORE RUN
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. COOLING AND MOISTENING
MID-LEVELS SHOULD FAVOR BETTER A LITTLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY
AS WELL.
BY TUESDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS
A SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER THAN MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THIS WEEK...WITH PRECIP WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. WE`VE
INCREASED THE AREA OF 40-50 PERCENT 12-HR POPS FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS PATTERN CERTAINLY SHOULD EXCEED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 20-30 PERCENT 12-HR POP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT NECESSARILY SEVERE WEATHER.
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BECOME CONSTRICTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BY THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG AT KLBT THROUGH SUNRISE AND
IN ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER AN EVENING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ANTICIPATE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS TO LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT LOW LEVEL
JETTING TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KLBT WHERE
DECENT RAIN FELL THIS EVENING.
AFTER DAYBREAK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TREND AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...LINGERING
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SCT CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH OF 10-20 KTS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH BUOYS REPORTING SEAS OF
3-4 FT. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS TENNESSEE. THIS
COULD ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...TEMPS 1200-1500 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT A WEAK INVERSION WILL
DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE WATERS (WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S ATTM)
SO FULL DOWNWARD MIXING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AND WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINE CRITERIA. FOR THIS REASON
EXPECT STATUS QUO...3-4 FT SEAS AND 10-20 KTS SW WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED 5 FTER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE MSLP GRADIENT
MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUMP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONSHORE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUNDAY WILL BECOME REPLACED ON
MONDAY BY LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM
VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT
MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF RECENT DAYS WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY...BUT WILL LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST OF THE STORMS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO FIRE AND DRIFT SE
ACROSS NRN PA. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWED THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEE HOURS AS THEY DRIFTED SE. NEWER
RUN ISN`T QUITE SO ROBUST WITH THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
REGARDLESS...SEEMS WE ARE NOT QUITE FREE AND CLEAR OF ALL THE RAIN
AS YET. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH..BUT
STILL HAVE TO GO TO UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE YOU SEE 50S DEWPOINTS.
THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAITS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY TO GET INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL KEEP
MINS VERY MILD IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE NRN TIER COUNTIES
WILL DIP INTO THE L-M60S...WHICH ARE NOT FAR FROM NORMALS. THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PA WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS
AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE STRONGER WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AND HIGH PWAT AIR OF NEARLY 2 INCHES WILL KEEP SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSRA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER OF
PENN FOR SUNDAY. FAIRLY DEEP LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND HEAT...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR AGAIN SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND THE COOLER AIR ON
AVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH/ WILL CHOP A GOOD
10 TO 15F OFF SUNDAY HIGHS VS SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW CENTRAL
PA TO BE THOROUGHLY ENTRENCHED IN THE DRY AIR...AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE
ONLY LEFT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT...ENTERING NORTHERN PA AT 02Z...WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS
LATE THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE SLOWLY TO MAINLY MVFR IN HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PM
TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PA AIRFIELDS...ODDS FAVOR A DRY FCST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988...WHILE KLNS...WITH AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR
RECORD OF 99F. NO PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITE IN OUR CWA OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PENN HELD BELOW THE 90 DEG MARK FOR A HIGH TEMP
TODAY.
SEE THE FRESHLY UPDATED PHLPNSCTP FOR A COMPLETE LISTING OF TODAY/S
MAXS AND COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS RECORDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF RECENT DAYS WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY...BUT WILL LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST OF THE STORMS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO FIRE AND DRIFT SE
ACROSS NRN PA. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWED THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEE HOURS AS THEY DRIFTED SE. NEWER
RUN ISN`T QUITE SO ROBUST WITH THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
REGARDLESS...SEEMS WE ARE NOT QUITE FREE AND CLEAR OF ALL THE RAIN
AS YET. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH..BUT
STILL HAVE TO GO TO UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE YOU SEE 50S DEWPOINTS.
THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAITS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY TO GET INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL KEEP
MINS VERY MILD IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE NRN TIER COUNTIES
WILL DIP INTO THE L-M60S...WHICH ARE NOT FAR FROM NORMALS. THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PA WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS
AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE STRONGER WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AND HIGH PWAT AIR OF NEARLY 2 INCHES WILL KEEP SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSRA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER OF
PENN FOR SUNDAY. FAIRLY DEEP LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND HEAT...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR AGAIN SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND THE COOLER AIR ON
AVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH/ WILL CHOP A GOOD
10 TO 15F OFF SUNDAY HIGHS VS SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW CENTRAL
PA TO BE THOROUGHLY ENTRENCHED IN THE DRY AIR...AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE
ONLY LEFT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NRN PENN WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TSRA OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE SLOWLY TO
MAINLY MVFR IN HAZE AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...ISOLD THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS...MAINLY SOUTH.
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988...WHILE KLNS...WITH AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR
RECORD OF 99F. NO PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITE IN OUR CWA OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PENN HELD BELOW THE 90 DEG MARK FOR A HIGH TEMP
TODAY.
SEE THE FRESHLY UPDATED PHLPNSCTP FOR A COMPLETE LISTING OF TODAY/S
MAXS AND COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS RECORDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
818 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS REMAINED IN CENTRAL SD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER TO WATERTOWN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A WEAK IMPULSE/MOISTURE SURGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
IS BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WELL
OVERDONE...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. IT CONTINUES THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY NEAR THE SURFACE SO ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE ECHOES ARE NOT EVEN PRODUCING RAIN
THAT REACHES THE GROUND. NONETHELESS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
18Z NAM COMING IN WITH A SHARPER WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AND IT A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
NOW...ALTHOUGH STILL RATHER LIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD GET SOMETHING GOING. DEWPOINTS ALSO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH...IF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THERE IS A VERY WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDING SOUTHEAST...MUCH LIKE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE OVERALL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME MINOR
ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO ALLBLEND ADVERTISING
SCHC/CHC POPS IN SEVERAL PERIODS. PER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE
TRIED TO REMOVE OR LOWER POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION VIA NORTHWEST ALOFT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...BELIEVE LITTLE/IF ANY PCPN WILL
OCCUR IN THE THIS CWA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ADDED LLM...ALONG WITH AN OPEN WAVE A
H5 MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS AT H7 WARMING INTO THE TEENS ABOVE C. THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS SHOWING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WHICH
SEEMS REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PIR AND ATY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A WEAK IMPULSE/MOISTURE SURGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
IS BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WELL
OVERDONE...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. IT CONTINUES THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY NEAR THE SURFACE SO ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE ECHOES ARE NOT EVEN PRODUCING RAIN
THAT REACHES THE GROUND. NONETHELESS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
18Z NAM COMING IN WITH A SHARPER WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AND IT A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
NOW...ALTHOUGH STILL RATHER LIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD GET SOMETHING GOING. DEWPOINTS ALSO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH...IF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THERE IS A VERY WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDING SOUTHEAST...MUCH LIKE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE OVERALL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME MINOR
ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO ALLBLEND ADVERTISING
SCHC/CHC POPS IN SEVERAL PERIODS. PER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE
TRIED TO REMOVE OR LOWER POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION VIA NORTHWEST ALOFT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...BELIEVE LITTLE/IF ANY PCPN WILL
OCCUR IN THE THIS CWA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ADDED LLM...ALONG WITH AN OPEN WAVE A
H5 MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS AT H7 WARMING INTO THE TEENS ABOVE C. THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS SHOWING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WHICH
SEEMS REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PIR AND ATY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE CHANCE OF POPS FROM THE FORECAST TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MAIN FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SURGING SOUTH FROM
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR FOCUSES CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT...BUT STILL INDICATES SOME CAPPING
ISSUES. THINK THE NAM IS WEAKENING THE CAP TOO QUICKLY AND
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 00Z.
HAVE NOT ALTERED TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT IF ANYTHING MAY
NEED TO RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 07/18Z SATURDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH 07/00Z.
THEREAFTER...CONVECTION MAY TRY TO BUILD SOUTH AND WEST BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING A WARM LAYER ALOFT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT/
FEEL SAFE THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EDGES...FAR WEST...FAR NORTH...AND POSSIBLY IN
SOUTHWEST MN DOWN TO JACKSON COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN OFT HIT LATELY
AND WHERE THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE MORE FAVORABLE. THESE ARE THE
AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO
PRODUCE STORMS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST DURING TONIGHT BUT ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN SCATTERED. SPC OUTLOOK SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORM AND SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST MN BACK MAYBE TO BROOKINGS
SD. VERY LOCAL GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL...BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH WARMING
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FRONTAL POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DEWPOINTS CONFIRMS A DECISION TO KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AND WARNING
TO ITS SCHEDULED END AT THE END OF TODAY. COOLING IS LIKELY TO KNOCK
THE ADVISORY OUT BEFORE THAT FAR WEST BUT WILL KEEP AS IS FOR
SIMPLICITY. IN ANY EVENT...NAM EARLY LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS DOES NOT
LOOK RIGHT.
AS FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH OF AREA AND COOLING SETS IN TONIGHT...
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND UPPER FLOW GOING WESTERLY AS RIDGE FLATTENS
MAY KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
AND AM MENTIONING SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND...AND IN FACT
THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEW WEEK...LOOKS DRY AND MILD
WITH GENERALLY 80S FOR HIGHS AND NOT TOO HUMID IN STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-
089-090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
097-098.
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
014.
SD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ066>071.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>065.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
NOT PLANNING ON ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
LATEST RUNS OF THE 3KM HRRR STILL MAINTAIN THAT AN MCS WILL ROLL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DONT HAVE A REAL PROBLEM WITH THIS AS ITS CONSISTENT WITH
OTHER LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE FOR NOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PCPN CHCS
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST 88D IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT -SHRA FROM MURDO
TO PLANKINTON...WITH NEW ACTIVITY NEAR HIGHMORE AND WATERTOWN.
AREA COINCIDES WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD COUPLED WITH
INCREASING FORCING NOTED ON THE 310K AND 315K ISENTROPIC LAYERS.
ISEN ANALYSIS ALSO REFLECTED POCKET OF DRIER AIR ACROSS NERN
SD...EVIDENCED BY DEWPTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR FROM MBG TO
K8D3 REMAINING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. CONVERSELY DWPTS IN THE
KHON AND KBKX AREA ARE IN THE MID 70S. HRR MODEL AND LOCAL 4KM WRF
MODEL ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAYS 14
AND 212 CORRIDORS...WITH NOT MUCH MOVING NORTHWARD INTO DRIER AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN WY AND MOVING TO THE KPIR AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. WAA AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PUSHES 700HPA TEMPS TO ABOVE
12C ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. 850HPA 30KT TO 40KT JET LIFTS
WARMFRONT INTO SRN ND...AND MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW ND WILL
RECEIVE BULK OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM HESITANT TO MENTION SVR
ATTM AS INCREDIBLY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS EXIST ACROSS CWA. ALTHOUGH
DRIER MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW SAGS BACK TO THE SE...WITH WEAK CAA
FILLING IN ACROSS THE CWA. SOME LINGERING -SHRA/-TSRA COULD EXIST
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT AGAIN BULK OF PCPN
APPEARS TO RESIDE IN ND AND WESTERN MN.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND RELATIVELY COOL
(WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS HIGHS) AS 850HPA TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS FOR THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS DRY AT THIS
POINT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S AND 90S...WITH THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMBG
AND KABR LATE TNT. ANY STORMS COULD DROP CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. THE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AT KABR BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
458 PM PDT Sat Jul 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A big warm up is on the way. Some of the hottest weather in the
last couple of years is anticipated Sunday and Monday. A few
locations in the Inland Northwest will flirt with record heat.
Thunderstorm chances will be slowly increasing through the weekend
and into next week with the greatest risk for thunder in the
short-term arriving Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures remain
above normal through much of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge retrogression will continue overnight
allowing moisture to continue its northward advection toward the
forecast area. This will also result in decreased atmospheric
stability which could bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the Inland NW. Models are consistent in keeping the
best chances reserved for the SE corner of Washington into the
central Idaho Panhandle through the evening. The latest visible
satellite imagery continues shows decent convective development
over the higher terrain of NE Oregon and central Idaho. We suspect
this activity will drift north-northeast during the evening as a
weak upper level disturbance seen on the water vapor imagery over
EC Oregon heads this way. Whether or not the convection can
successfully move off the mountains and maintain its intensity for
thunderstorms this evening across our forecast area is no
given...the latest run of the HRRR suggests this possibility. The
activity should wane by late evening...however there could be
another batch of elevated sprinkles toward morning...over the
extreme southern portion of our forecast area. This activity shows
up in response to a weak shortwave trough...currently off the
central California coast. Not sure convection will come this far
north by daybreak...however at a minimum we will likely see some
accas clouds moving in from the south. fx
Sunday through Tuesday...Reasonable model agreement exists and
satellite extrapolation suggests models have a decent handle on
the field of motion over and upwind of the forecast area through
the end of the short term. In general southerly flow will hold
sway over the region through Sunday and Monday as the forecast
area bakes under the northwest flank of a sprawling upper level
high over the central United States. A surface thermal trough is
now established over the forecast area and will promote light and
largely terrain driven winds through Tuesday. This flow regime
will lead to further increases in temperatures...with most
locations flirting with record high temperatures either on Sunday
or Monday...some locations both days.
Thunderstorm potential will be the tricky part of the forecast. Model
soundings indicate very unstable conditions aloft through Sunday
and Monday...but also indicate a few hundred Joules of CIN in the
lower layers which should suppress convection in the absence of any
well defined upper forcing. Thus during the daytime periods the
best convective threat will likely exist over mountains...with the
valleys and basin simply baking under mostly sunny/partly cloudy
skies. Moisture will be very much available with slugs of
impressive precipitable water transiting the region through
Monday. In this air mass the conditions will be ripe for scattered
thunderstorm activity if a forcing agent is available...and
both the NAM and GFS transit a pair of short waves through the
region from south to north on Sunday evening and Monday evening.
The Sunday evening wave appears to bring the highest threat to the
deep basin and Cascades between 00Z and 12Z...while the second
wave focuses it`s dynamic forcing over the southeast and Idaho
Panhandle on Monday evening. While the best chance for nocturnal
convection will lay over these primary threat regions...the air
mass is so unstable aloft...particularly Monday night...that a
stray storm is possible just about anywhere in this flow regime.
By Tuesday the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly and
progressive...still hot but high temperatures should back down a
few degrees on Tuesday not by means of any noticeable cold front
but through a weakening and eastward shift of the thermal trough
axis. The southwesterly flow will help shunt the deep moisture
eastward with a residual thunderstorm threat mainly over the
southeastern zones and Idaho Panhandle...but with coverage
mainly isolated and mainly confined to the mountains due to the
lack of any appreciable forcing. /Fugazzi
Tuesday through Saturday...The region will continue to be under the
influence of a strong ridge of high pressure with temperatures
running several degrees above seasonal normals. Some mid-level
monsoonal moisture will ride the periphery of the 4-corners high,
brushing the southeast zones and fostering some elevated convection
each day starting at the NE Blue Mts and spreading into the Camas
Prairie and Idaho Panhandle Mts. There will also be some weak
impulses of shortwave energy rolling over the top of the ridge that
could kick off some showers and thunderstorms across the northern
tier if there is enough moisture associated with the shortwaves. In
general, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
much of the elevated terrain each day throughout the extended
forecast period. Models are still having difficulties with the
timing of the breakdown of the ridge which may come as early as
Friday, or hold off until the weekend. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Interesting scenario coming to the area as good chance of
thunderstorms arrives late Sunday through Monday. The
thunderstorms will produce a good outbreak of lightning but not
sure what impact this will have on the fuels and any potential
fires. If this were a typical year the fuels would be cured over
most locations and it would be an easy decision to issue a broad
brush fire weather watch. However that`s not the case and most of
the fuels are still far from cured. The only exceptions are found
over the Columbia Basin and the valleys in the lee of the southern
Washington Cascades...namely the KITTITAS...Yakima...and Wenatchee
Valleys. Over the past couple days we`ve seen two wildfires in the
Cascade Valleys...without any meteorological help so obviously
those fuels are ready. Per agency input...it seems the finer fuels
in these areas are receptive at or below 3.5-4k feet...however
they are having a tough time sustaining at higher elevations in
the heavier fuels. Meanwhile most of the Columbia Basin is
sufficiently dry. So based on the significant lighting threat
...we will go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for Fire Zones
676...677...and 673 for Late Sunday through Monday. Not sure how
far any potential fire starts will get since winds shouldn`t be an
issue. Also based on high precipitable water values...it would
seem most of the storms should produce a decent amount of
rainfall. But based on the number of expected lightning strikes it
seems prudent to issue a watch at this time. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all taf sites through 00z Sun
as ridge continues to build over region. We will continue with very
unstable conditions at mid to upper levels. Most of the region will
remain capped through the rest of the evening. Best chances for
thunderstorm development will be over the Northeast Blue Mountains
and over the Central Panhandle Mountains. Any thunderstorms that do
develop over the Northeast Blue Mountains will have the potential to
drift northeastward toward the KLWS TAF site. Confidence is very low
for chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight as no defined
disturbances is being advertised by models at this time, but even a
very weak disturbance will have the potential to promote ACCAS
development with a remote chance for a shower and even a
thunderstorm; mainly for the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 65 97 67 97 67 95 / 0 10 10 10 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 60 95 62 96 64 93 / 0 10 10 10 30 20
Pullman 58 96 59 95 60 92 / 10 10 20 10 30 20
Lewiston 69 102 70 102 70 101 / 10 20 20 20 30 20
Colville 54 99 59 101 60 98 / 0 10 10 20 30 20
Sandpoint 51 93 56 95 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 30 20
Kellogg 58 94 59 95 59 90 / 20 20 10 10 30 20
Moses Lake 62 102 67 102 66 101 / 0 10 30 20 20 10
Wenatchee 67 100 68 99 68 98 / 0 10 30 20 20 10
Omak 58 100 63 100 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
677)-East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-
East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...FIRST CONCERN TONIGHT IA POSSIBILITY OF FG OR BR AT
KCOS. HAVE NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN TAF...BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN
AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE SOME PC FG DEVELOP. CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME. ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME BR AT KALS...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOWER AND
ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. NEXT CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
AFTER 18Z FOR MOST OF SE CO. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN FROM SCT S IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MORE NMRS
SHRA IN THE EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SUN. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST HIGH RES OUTPUT...LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT HAS
ENDED WITH HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHIFTING NWD INTO NE CO. WILL STILL
SEE SOME ISOLD SHWR AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS EXPANDING OVR THE CWA...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS
TOMORROW. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THIS MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE AREA
WERE ABOUT 170-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING A LITTLE FOR SUN...AS THE
MONSOON MSTR PLUME REMAINS OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUN.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE HYR TRRN TODAY AND WITH
THE ABUNDANT MSTR OVR THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY...PROBABLY
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WL PROBABLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THEN BY AFTERNOON SUN...WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING A THREAT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ON SUN...WITH THE HYR TRRN AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL RUNS AND SEE WHICH AREAS THEY ARE SHOWING THE HIGHEST HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POTENTIAL. A WATCH WL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
WHAT AREAS GET HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THE NSSL 4KM WRF IS SHOWING THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY BEING BETWEEN ABOUT 7 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM.
LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A DRIER MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A SLOW
MOVING UPPER VORT MAX WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL SEND A BOUNDARY SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND TURN FLOW
MORE NORTHEASTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO
NEAR LAMAR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL. MODELS VARY ON WHEN THEY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AT
LEAST LOW POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BECOME EMINENT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH SHIFTS EAST INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
RETURN TO DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRINGS A
RETURN TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH FORCES THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE BACK INTO THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. 88
AVIATION...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF PCPN WL DECREASE...BUT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1257 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS TODAY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH THIS FEATURE, VCSH IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VCTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS, BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z. WINDS MAINLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT AT KAPF
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WSW BY 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND
IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES DEPICT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. UPDATED
GRIDS SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS S FLA TONIGHT
WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXPECTED TO THE S OF THE AREA
OVER THE FLA STRAITS. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE VCSH E COAST OVER NIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE TERMINALS AND WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED IF DIFFERENT CONDITIONS DEVELOP. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP INLAND
FROM THE TERMINALS AFT 08/15Z AND MOVE WEST INTO THE EVERGLADES. SURFACE
WINDS EASTERLY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KAPF...POSSIBLE VCSH
UNTIL 03Z THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM
KAPF AFT 08/18Z AND VCTS IN TAF. WINDS AT KAPF EASTERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WITH A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFT 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ... LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90`S EAST COAST BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY.
SOME AREAS IN THE INTERIOR CAN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90`S.
AS FAR AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE US BETWEEN NOW AND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NE US WITH A TRAILING FRONT POSSIBLY
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, INTERIOR, AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AREAS SOUTH
OF US 41, WHICH CONNECT MIAMI TO NAPLES, CAN SEE AN INCREASE IN THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.
MARINE...IN TERMS OF WINDS AND WAVES...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. OVERALL...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC SEAS NEAR 2 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION...(ISSUED 129 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012)
NORTHERN END OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSRA AND THIS WILL BE THE
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER INTERIOR AND W CST, WITH TSRA AND
PREVAILING VFR AT KAPF COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME BEING.
AFTER 00Z, SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE E CST WITH VCSH
AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS AND VSBYS, BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH OR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IN FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 90 79 / 40 20 30 20
MIAMI 92 78 90 79 / 40 20 30 20
NAPLES 91 77 91 78 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
948 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST POPS AND DEW POINTS...BUT
OTHERWISE GOING TEMPERATURE TREND LOOKS GOOD AS WELCOME COOL AND
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT IS BETTER EVOLVING AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SLOWLY INTO
AND THROUGH THE 70S. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTED TO 30 MPH IN CHICAGO WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
A DRIER CORRIDOR OF AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S IS WORKING
SOUTHWARD ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE LAKE DOWN EASTERN WI. HAVE
LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO FALL OUT IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.
EARLIER STORMS TRIGGERED ON THE CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND IN
THE PRESENCE OF BASICALLY NO SHEAR. ON WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE
CHANNELS AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS DEPICT THE WARM UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND STILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE OUR AREA /500 MB TEMPS AT -5C AND HEIGHTS AT 595DM/.
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...IT APPEARS SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN THE PAST
HALF HOUR HAVE SEEN A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND CANT RULE THAT OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVING UPPER JET SUPPORT WORKS SOUTHWARD. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
301 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAS SET UP. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS THE BOUNDARY HAS INTENSIFIED ON RADAR...AND A
FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG IT. THE CELLS CAN BE
CONSIDERED GLORIFIED RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF LIGHTNING AND
THE FACT THAT MOST ARE WEAKENING AS SOON AS THEY POP UP.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000+ J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE
ACROSS IL AND IN. THEREFORE ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS TODAY IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
WIDESPREAD STORMS AND A GOOD SOAKING RAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS A BIT WASHED OUT AND DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY...BUT LIES ROUGHLY ACROSS I-90 THROUGH THE MI/IN STATE
LINE. WINDS WILL TURN N TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ARE WEAK AT BEST. WITH MINIMAL CAPE
INDICATED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO KEEP VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING POOLING OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I-88 TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
CAPE. AS SUCH INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NOON WITH THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH CAA IN THE
AREA...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO
ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OR A SOAKING
RAIN.
FOR TEMPS...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE HAVE RISEN TO 100 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS EXPECTED. RFD HAS BEEN THE HOT SPOT REACHING
105 SO FAR TODAY. RELIEF IS ON THE WAY THOUGH...AND ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED MILES AWAY. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DROPPING INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH ORD CURRENTLY
AT 82 DEGREES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND OVERALL LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST RESULTING IN A SLOWER DROP IN
TEMPS. REGARDLESS...THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE AROUND 70 TONIGHT IN A
MUCH FRESHER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE 80S...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT
INDICES WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
DESPITE THE HEAT WAVE THANKFULLY COMING TO AN END...THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE TO ONE CONDUCIVE FOR BRINGING THE
REGION DESPERATELY NEEDED WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS. THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT FROM AN OUTDOOR COMFORT
PERSPECTIVE...BUT NO DOUBT MOST AREA RESIDENTS WOULD TAKE A RAINY
DAY TO HELP EASE THE INCREASINGLY SEVERE DROUGHT.
THE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT HAS EXISTED MORE OR LESS SINCE THE SPRING
FOR NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE...BUT THIS WEEK THE HEAT DOME
UNDER INTENSE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A SIGNAL ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...ONCE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...IT WILL MORE OR LESS DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE VERY SLOW MOVING WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP IT LOCKED IN PLACE. THUS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE THE RULE. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST DESPITE SOME OF THE MODELS OTHER THAN
THE ECMWF HAVING OCCASIONAL SMATTERINGS OF VERY LIGHT QPF...WHICH
SEEMS QUITE UNREALISTIC IN THIS DROUGHT PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT ON
MONDAY...AS FORECAST 950 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER/NEAR SEASONAL...THEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION IS THE VERY DRY GROUND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT HEATING. SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW MOST OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT
COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY WITH LAKE
MICHIGAN NOW A GLORIFIED BATHTUB. OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME
FAIRLY COOL NIGHTS THIS WEEK DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT OVERNIGHT
WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
ALL IN ALL...A NICE...MUCH MORE BEARABLE WEEK AHEAD...BUT NO HELP
FOR THE FARMERS AND GARDENERS.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
*NNE TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT BY MID MORNING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
*NNE TO NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5-10KT DUE TO COMBINATION OF
COUPLING OF SFC AND CENTER OF SFC PRES RISES DROPPING S OF I-80.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING 15-21KT IN PLACE AT 12Z ABOVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AVAILABLE TO BE MIXED DOWN TO SFC. DURING THE DAY THE SFC RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ND-SD BORDER EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI GRADUALLY BUILDS FURTHER E OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
SLOWLY SETTLES FURTHER S OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WITH WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BY LATE TODAY WINDS
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI E
ACROSS THE LAKE TO LOWER MI IS ALONG WEAK MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
A.M. AND PREDAWN HOURS AS THE AS AN E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER SOUTHERN MI AND NORTHERN IL. SHADOW OF LOWER SFC
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LAKE WITH SCT CU FURTHER INLAND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL FCST ELEMENTS.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
330 PM CDT
THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT THROUGH THE LAKE WITH WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN THIRDS OF THE LAKE WITH BUOYS INDICATING 5 FT
WAVES ALONG THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE. AS THE CORE OF HIGHER
WINDS...UP TO 25 KT...MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE...EXPECTING WAVES TO GROW TO 6 TO 9 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO
NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE LAKE...WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE....WINDS AND
WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEAK WINDS AND WAVES.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1224 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
HOT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
END TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT...AND MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER A DROUGHT-BUSTING SOAKER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND ALLOW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GOING FORECAST MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. DID NOT CHANGE POPS...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO TEMPERATURES. HRRR DEVELOPS NO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ONLY ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS POWERFUL UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE. DYNAMICS ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL...SO
MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS ERRATIC TO NEARLY STATIONARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS INDIANA TO OHIO AND PA. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. SOME LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT
WAS HELPING THE FRONT AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS WERE POISED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 100S TODAY. NO PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME AS WELL AS LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACCORDING TO VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HRRR FAILED TO DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE
FRONT...AND NAM HOLDS OFF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS DO BEGIN TO O SHOW LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING AFT 06Z WITH SOME LIFT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL
TO SHOW SATURATION...BUT HINT AT JUST HEATING INSTABILITY.
DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE WEAK. THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR MASS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE STARTING POINT WHERE WE HAVE TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE A WARM AIR STILL LINGERING
ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN INVERSION. FURTHERMORE TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH LOOK TO BE
CLUSTERS OF ICE CRYSTALS AND WATER VAPOR IN THE SKY...ALSO KNOWN
AS CLOUDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AND THIS MAY ACT AS AN EXTRA FORCING
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SLIM TO NONE AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO BUILD...SLOWLY BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS WILL TRY TO KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRY NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME
HEADWAY. MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND AGAIN...A BIG RAIN WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN CLOUDS...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND NE SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA. NO SUPPORT ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
TYPE FORECAST WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTH. GIVEN SOME EXPECTED CLOUDS IN THE AREA WILL
TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE BROAD COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST APPEARS TO FINALLY PUSH THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AS A COOLER AND DRY NE SURFACE FLOW
PERSISTS. PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK THE WAY
TO GO AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND LITTLE CAPE. THUS WE WILL EXPECT
JUST A FEW CU. WILL USE A BLEND ON TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
LATEST MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND INDICATE DRY
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE INITIALIZATION IS
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR CONTINUITY.
CONSIDERING THIS AND ALSO MODELS TEND TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION
TOO FAST IN A DROUGHT...GOING TOTALLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOO EARLY TO DISCARD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN REGIONAL MODEL
HAS SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPS...REGIONAL MODEL NOT ALL BAD BUT AS IWX POINTED OUT
PROBABLY NEEDS TO BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE DAYS CONSIDERING EFFECTS
OF DRY GROUND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 080600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR SKY COVER AND P6SM EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE LOOKS TO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...UNLESS A
STORM CAN BE TIMED AT ISSUANCE TIME. THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF LAF...IND AND HUF BY ISSUANCE TIME AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
WINDS WILL BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS ANYWAY OVERNIGHT. THEN...EXPECT THE
WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT AFTER 15Z TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FALLS CITY TO SOUTH OF CONCORDIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LAY FROM OSKALOOSA THROUGH
TOPEKA AND HERINGTON. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA SAVE THE NORTHWEST CORNER. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CONVERGENCE FROM DODGE CITY
NORTHEAST TO NEAR TOPEKA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SURFACE BASED CAPE RUNNING IN
THE 1500 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOW INVERTED V SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY TOUCH
OFF SOME MORE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. ALSO COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS OF
HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WILL ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 FOR POOLING OF DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S WHICH IF IT OCCURS COULD PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND
100 DEGREES.
53
POST FRONTAL AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 850 MB WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE MAINLY SITUATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING SUNDAY MOST AREAS AND WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES) WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK WAVE AS UPPER FLOW
TRIES TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EVENING AND SOUTH OF
I-70...THEN CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST ON MONDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF THE
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT ALSO INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AS EASTERLY LLVL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND HEIGHT RISES INCREASE...SHOULD SEE
TEMPS START TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BACK
INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.
63
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
30 MILES WEST OF KMHK...WILL MOVE WEST AWAY FROM THE TAF KMHK TAF SITE.
I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
THE TAF SITES BUT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. ONCE FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KTS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING FUELED BY COLD POOLS
GENERATED BY OUTFLOW/COLLAPSING STORMS. SO EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST FOR A LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THEY OUTRUN THE
OUTFLOWS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR THE KICT/KSLN AND KHUT TAFS WITH
CONVECTION IN THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL 09Z.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM KTOP TO NEAR KGBD. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO SRN KS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH EARLY ON
SUN. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS ON
SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS AS HIGHER INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
THE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CEN AND SE KS. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO WANE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...AS HEATING COMES TO END. EXPECT
THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT ALL THE CONVECTION WILL
END OVER SERN KS AS A WEAK IMPULSE DRIFTS OVER SW MO. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER OVER CEN KS LATE THIS EVENING AS
WELL...AS THIS AREA IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
IS OOZING SOUTH INTO SRN KS. SO WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CEN KS AND
SOUTHEAST KS.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
HIT OR MISS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A VCTS
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO SEND OUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY CREATE VARIABLE OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS IN AROUND
THE COLLAPSING STORMS. MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND THE KHUT/KRSL TAF
SITES. COULD ALSO SEE A SOUTH MOVING OUTFLOW MAKE IT INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF ICT AS WELL. EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING AFTER
02-03Z.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM KTOP TO NEAR KGBD. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO SRN KS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH EARLY ON
SUN. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS ON
SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS AS HIGHER INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
MODEL CONVECTION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SYNOPTIC MASS
FIELDS TO SUBJECTIVELY DETERMINE HIGHER POP AREAS PER 12Z MODEL
RUNS. HOWEVER IN VERY SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT
HANDLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR. 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN THE BALLPARK.
ADJUSTED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 1200 UTC RAOBS SUGGEST LESS
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...WITH ROUGHLY A 1000 J/KILOGRAM
CAPE AND NOT A LOT OF CIN. LEAD WIND SHIFT PUSHED THROUGH KHUT BY
MIDDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST INTO KRSL. WITH WEAK/
DISORGANIZED FLOW...EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. COULD
EASILY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FESTER
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE KS.
SUN-MON:
WITH PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES AND DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HARD
PRESSED TO PIN DOWN HIGHER CHANCES/AREAS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
SOME HINTS IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ROLL OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLIP FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK
MON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION AND GFS/ECMWF
MUCH LESS. APPEARS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK DURING
THE NIGHT AND ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST MAY BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
COLD POOL. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ON MON MORNING IN FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER BOTH
DAYS LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
LATEST MODELS SHOW FRONT HANGING UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ALONG OK BORDER THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP STATUS QUO AND LET MIDSHIFT REEVALUATE.
WED-SAT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER FLOW.
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES...
LEAVING FORECAST AREA NORTHWEST-NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND LOCATED
BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMALS. IN ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OR SIGNIFICANT INFLUX
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 94 73 90 / 20 30 30 20
HUTCHINSON 75 93 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
NEWTON 75 93 72 91 / 20 30 30 10
ELDORADO 74 94 72 91 / 30 30 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 96 76 90 / 30 30 30 20
RUSSELL 72 91 69 88 / 40 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 72 92 69 87 / 40 40 40 30
SALINA 76 91 73 90 / 40 30 30 10
MCPHERSON 74 92 70 91 / 30 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 77 93 74 89 / 30 30 30 20
CHANUTE 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
IOLA 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RER OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A
SLGT RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEPT TAFS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ALL THE TAF SITES
WERE EXPERIENCING A STEADY WIND AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREDIBLY WARM FOR THE TIME OF DAY WITH
A READING OF 90 AT SBY AT 05Z.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY THEN VEER
TO EASTERLY TOWARD EVENING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 101/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF CONCERNS. FIRST...CLEAR SKIES
AND LITTLE/NO WIND MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL...SO MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES/NRN ONTARIO. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR IN THE
VCNTY OF INLAND MOVING LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD
BE UNDER THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE ANYTHING
DEVELOPS. KSAW HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING SHRA OR TSRA WITH MODELS
HINTING AT MORE PRESISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF KSAW.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATION OF
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...AS JUST A FEW LIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST IS THE VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW 60S...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE RECENT STRING OF DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT HOT STRETCH...WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DIGS. THIS SETUP MEANS WE`LL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST.
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MID-HIGH
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED RETURNS... ANY PCPN IS REMAINING WELL ALOFT AT THIS POINT.
THESE CLOUDS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
ONE SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO... WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER
WEAKNESS IS ALSO APPARENT IN NORTH DAKOTA... AND THIS SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND
THESE FEATURES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS CAM RUNS
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION AS THE AREA OF WEAK
FORCING AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ANY ACTIVITY WHICH MANAGES
TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED... BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW POPS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE... THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE
MORNING... LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY... AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS... WITH VERY SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS STRETCH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST...MEANING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 588 HEIGHTS AT
500MB LOOK TO RETURN BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER
20 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE E
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO NW MN. THE
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP INTO CENTRAL MN...BUT WILL MAINLY STAY IN
NRN MN. PIECES OF ENERGY MAY PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN LATE TMRW INTO TMRW EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
RELATIVELY LACKING AND LIFT WILL BE QUITE MEAGER. THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM FEW TO SCT COVERAGE BUT
WILL OTHERWISE KEEP THE TAFS DRY SINCE MODEL POPS ARE BARELY 20
AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON TIMING. PRECIP MAY ALSO OCCUR ALOFT
AND NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM
THE N AND NW.
MSP...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 08/06Z TAF SET. FEW-SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN MIDLVL CLOUDS INCRS IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW PRES WAVE ALOFT PUSHING THRU NRN MN...
POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL MN. SLGT CHC OF SOME SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE LATE
AFTN AND EVENING...BUT MAINLY N OF MSP...SO HAVE LEFT THE TAF DRY.
OUTLOOK...
.MONDAY...VFR. WINDS N 5-10KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VRBL.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS SW 10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SPD/JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
420 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR...SITUATE JUST NW OF PERRY COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. IT EXTENDED NE TO AN APPARENT WEAK WAVE IN
CENTRAL PA...AND THEN EWD FROM THERE...THE OTHER END EXTENDING
WSWWRD JUST N OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. AS IT MOVES S
TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG AND S OF IT THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVEN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. FRONTAL POSITION AND MOVEMENT
PLACES INSTABILITY AXIS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY SWD TONIGHT.
WHILE BUOYANCY IS IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ARE MODEST AT BEST...AND PW VALUES PEAKING AOA 2 IN IS ALMOST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING. ALL THIS BRINGS IN TO QUESTION
THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS CAN ORGANIZE SHORT OF SMALLER STORM SCALE
INTERACTIONS...BUT PRESENCE OF SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLIES JUST N OF
THE FRONT MAY HELP THIS EVENING. DEGREE AND EXTENT OF WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THIS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE
FCST WORDING AS INTRODUCED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
ZONE SHIFTS SWD TONIGHT AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF BUOYANCY. UPPER LEVEL VENTING IS ALSO SHOWN
TO DIMINISH EXCEPT WHERE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SETTLES IN OVER
NRN WV AND SE OHIO LATE.
HIGHS TODAY LOOKED TO BE JUST BELOW GUIDANCE BUT IN LINE WITH THE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT AND ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SWD SHIFT OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT OFF
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CWA IS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODEL FORECASTS ARE
SUGGESTING. REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE CWA SOMETIME LATER MONDAY. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING TO
BE A THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...AND DRIER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH DRIER AIR NOT FILTERING IN UNTIL
LATER MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO FILTER INTO PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS CWA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE DOG DAYS...THE MEAN 500 MB TROF IN THE OH
VLY WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER...BUT DOES NOT REALLY EXIT. A WEAK SUMMER
FLOW REMAINS. NO ORGANIZED FRONTS FROM THE WEST THRU NORTH
FORESEEN.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY TRY TO LEAK BACK NORTH IN
TIME...SO CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC GUIDANCE FOR OUR USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS...SUCH AS BECKLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A LIGHT S FLOW TO PRECLUDE FOG...SAVE
PERHAPS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
A W TO E ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY...S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG...EVEN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE E TO
SEWD...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
STRONG WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO CODE UP AT THIS TIME...FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE
LIKELY TO DROP AT LEAST DOWN TO MVFR MOST AIRPORTS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NW SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT N
SUNDAY NT. LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/08/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
321 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ALL
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. THIS LINE SEEMS WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A MINOR ADVANCE OF THE NEW AIR MASS AS WINDS
ARE NORTHERLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE. SOUPY AND STILL AIR IS
FOUND TO THE SOUTH OF IT. MOST RECENT HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT ARE
LACKING THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT THE RUC IS DOING
MUCH BETTER. THE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT DROPPING QUITE AS FAST AS MDLS
PROG...BUT THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP THIS COME AROUND.
WILL FOLLOW THE RUC FOR THE FIRST 6-9HRS OF THE FCST. THIS RESULTS
IN THE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THESE SHOWERS AS THEY INCH
SOUTHWARD TO KFIG-KUNV-KSEG BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HEIGHTS FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FRONT INCHES SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...IT WON/T GET OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING
HELPS TO RE-FIRE OR EXPAND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ON WITH SCT POPS FOR THE TIME. SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WHERE THE HIGHER CAPES ARE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN WHERE
THE STORMS ARE. WILL JUST MENTION SOME POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO. MAXES WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN
SATURDAY WITH 80S WIDESPREAD AND L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT COULD HANG ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER TONIGHT. LOW CHC POPS ARE THE BEST
WAY TO PORTRAY THIS POSSIBILITY. CLEARING OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S THERE...BUT 60S A GOOD FCST WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND STILL MOIST AIR IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
OF CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE DRY AIR. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER FOR MOST DAYS...BUT ALSO INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS INTO TUESDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MINOR SFC REFLECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. REMAINING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MAINLY MVFR IN HAZE AND PATCHY FOG IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC WINDS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PM TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PA AIRFIELDS...BUT ODDS FAVOR A DRY FCST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988. KLNS HAD AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR RECORD OF
99F. WILLIAMSPORT CAME JUST TWO DEGS SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH THERE
AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED IN SHORTLY AFTER THE TEMP REACHED
99F. THE STORM MADE A 50KT GUST AND DROPPED THE TEMP AT KIPT
ALMOST 30F.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
CLIMATE...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS REMAINED IN CENTRAL SD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER TO WATERTOWN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A WEAK IMPULSE/MOISTURE SURGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
IS BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WELL
OVERDONE...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. IT CONTINUES THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY NEAR THE SURFACE SO ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE ECHOES ARE NOT EVEN PRODUCING RAIN
THAT REACHES THE GROUND. NONETHELESS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
18Z NAM COMING IN WITH A SHARPER WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AND IT A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
NOW...ALTHOUGH STILL RATHER LIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD GET SOMETHING GOING. DEWPOINTS ALSO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH...IF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THERE IS A VERY WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDING SOUTHEAST...MUCH LIKE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE OVERALL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME MINOR
ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO ALLBLEND ADVERTISING
SCHC/CHC POPS IN SEVERAL PERIODS. PER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE
TRIED TO REMOVE OR LOWER POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION VIA NORTHWEST ALOFT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...BELIEVE LITTLE/IF ANY PCPN WILL
OCCUR IN THE THIS CWA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ADDED LLM...ALONG WITH AN OPEN WAVE A
H5 MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS AT H7 WARMING INTO THE TEENS ABOVE C. THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS SHOWING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WHICH
SEEMS REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...WITH SOME
INSTABILITY BUILT UP THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE
MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST
THIS AFTN. LATEST HRRR AND SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SEEMS TO DEVELOP
MORE PCPN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTN. PCPN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDONE BY THE MDLS OVER THE
NERN PLAINS WITH JUST LIGHT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING. STORM
TODAY WILL BE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHEST. SLOW MOVING STORMS AGAIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER ONE INCH SO HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING STILL AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE BURN AREAS AND IN
LOCATIONS ALREADY SATURATED FM HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. CIGS WL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 6K FT TODAY. NO BIG CHANGES OVERALL IN THE
TIMING WITH STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 21Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY THIS AM. A LOOK
AT OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE RAINFALL RATES FROM .1-.3 INCHES
PER HOUR AND HAVE RECEIVED NO CALLS ABOUT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THIS BROAD AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING AND
EXPECT WE WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE. FURTHER WEST...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED
EXCEPT FOR SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
OVERALL WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS INDICATING VALUES FROM 1.20 TO 1.41 OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S OVER ALL OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. SO WITH ALL THIS
MOISTURE WHAT CAN WE DO WITH IT TODAY? THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE THE BROAD UPPER HIGH WHICH IS SHIFTING AND REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST OF COLORADO. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT FROM WEAK
WESTERLY THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY FLOW BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS EVEN BY
EVENING WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WHICH MAY KEEP STORMS
ANCHORED ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE IS
A LOT OF DISCREPANCY ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WRF SIMULATED GOES IMAGERY KEEPS MOST
OF THE STRONGER STORMS INDEED ANCHORED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER THRU THIS EVENING WHILE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT. THE NAM FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS GENERATES THIS HUGE BLOB OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
SEEMS TO BE ANCHORED TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE RIDGE.
AT THIS TIME I FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION WITH WEAKER STORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TODAY AND
THE AIRMASS HAS REALLY BEEN WORKED OVER. THE BEST CONVECTION WILL
PLAY OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND THEN STRETCHING THRU SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. HENCE THIS IS WHERE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE TODAY FROM 17Z THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
WILL ADJUST WEATHER AND POP GRIDS ACCORDING WITH THIS LINE OF
REASONING. ESPECIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF
RAIN TO RESULT IN MORE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY SINCE 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE FOOTHILLS IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT STORM COVERAGE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO OUR WEST...FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO GOES
NORTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. BELOW 600 MBS...HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT DURING THE MORNING AND AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND DURING THE MORNING...
THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
MORNING CONVECTION. THE OTHER MODELS SHOW MOST OF THIS MORNING
CONVECTION/STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DENVER
METRO AREA. LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE CONVECTION/QPF APPEARS
TO SHIFT OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE WITH THE ONSET OF EASTERLY SFC WINDS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO STORMS EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SOUTH PARK AREA WHERE
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
UP INTO THIS HIGH ALTITUDE BASIN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WOBBLES BACK AND
FORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN BY
THURSDAY MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE AMPLIFYING EASTWARD OVER COLORADO.
700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE PROGGED TO WARM TO
THE 17-18C RANGE BY THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. HIGH COUNTRY
LOCALS SHOULD ALSO SEE A STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES AFTER
TUESDAY. MOIST AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE STORM CHANCES
ON THE PLAINS LOOKS MEAGER AT BEST WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
THE HIGH SIDE. BY SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF OFFER DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS BEING THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS. WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT...WILL KEEP THE PLAINS
DRY AND VERY WARM ON SATURDAY AND GO WITH A USUAL CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
&&
AVIATION...VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATUS AT LOCAL TERMINALS BUT
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEOGORY AND WILL PLAY THIS CONTINUATION
THROUGH MID MORNING. AIRMASS IS STILL SATURATED SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE FOR THE MOST
PART AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 22Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z OR
SO. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY...BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...ADJ PLAINS AND WESTERN PALMER
DIVIDE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WHCIH HAS FALLEN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITONAL WATER TO
GENERATE MORE FLASH FLOODING ESPECAILLY OVER THE BURN AREAS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HIGH
PW VALUES AGAIN RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UP TO 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ035-036-038>041.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER/ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER/ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE (TODAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER
THE CONTROL OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
BEING FORCED WAY UP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THIS RIDGE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMER FASHION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE IS
QUITE WEAK AND WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DOMINATE
THE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS MID-MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE
80S. RADAR SHOWING A FEW LAND BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE ISOLATED CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE LAND BREEZE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FOCUS WEAKEN. ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO
SEA-BREEZE LAND BASED CONVECTION. PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF WIDELY SCT MID AFTERNOON-MID EVENING STORMS. LOOKING AT
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...DON`T SEE ANYTHING SPECIAL TO
SUGGEST EITHER AN ESPECIALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO DEEP
CONVECTION...OR ONE WHICH WOULD FAVOR ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. MID-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ARE A BIT LOW...BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY HOSTILE. THEREFORE THE 30% NORTH/CENTRAL AND 40% SOUTH
POP GRIDS INHERITED FROM LAST NIGHT APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN
16-18Z. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS LEVEL
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
THOSE AREA THAT CAN AVOID ANY STORMS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND AROUND 90 TOWARD THE
COAST. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY!
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WILL
SPLIT WITH ONE CENTER RETROGRADING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
ANOTHER WEAKER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MID LEVEL DRY AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE STORM
COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON THE LOW
SIDE TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM THE COAST TO INLAND
WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM COVERAGE (POPS 40
PERCENT) ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
DURING TUESDAY WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH (PW`S APPROACHING 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES) SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS (50 PERCENT) ALONG THE COAST AND 40 PERCENT
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION AND LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING AFTERNOON BAY AND SEA BREEZES BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z. EXPECT SOME VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND FMY
AND RSW.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DRIFT NORTH SOME
FROM MID WEEK ON. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH
LOW SEAS AND AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 93 77 92 77 / 20 20 20 20
FMY 93 75 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
GIF 95 75 95 74 / 30 10 30 10
SRQ 92 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 94 70 94 72 / 30 20 30 20
SPG 92 80 92 78 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1048 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING
CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING CAUSING
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE. SO INCREASED THE WINDS BASED ON THE RUC MODEL AS WELL AS
LOWERING THE DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL LOWER THE HEAT INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL FURTHER AWAY FROM HEAT INDEX CRITERIA.
ALSO MOVED BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENING AS WELL.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. USED THE HIGHER MET
MOS POPS OF AROUND 30 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS AGAIN NEAR 100.
THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD HELP SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NORTH PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET MOS POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LINGERING DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING PRODUCING
A MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER WINDS. INCREASED
WINDS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD DROP AND BACK TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT PER NAM GUIDANCE. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF LLWS MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE NOW. NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE
LOW LEVEL JET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND EARLY MORNING FOG
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE HEAT WAVE HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COOLER
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES SOME ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS SLOWLY APPROACHING. HI
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON SO
AGAIN JUST RAISED CHANCES FOR MORNING UP NORTH AND WILL SEE IF
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UPWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AS
TEMPS CLIMBING STEADILY AND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. DESPITE BEING IN NORTHERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR THUS FAR HAS
ONLY PENETRATED INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE NE WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED TO LOWER 60S. WITH
APPROACHING CLOUDS NEAR MUNCIE ALONG WITH STIFFER NE WIND...HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS THERE AND KOKOMO DOWN A DEGREE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED UP TO THIS POINT. AS A
RESULT...DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK. BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT...SO WENT WITH A BLEND FOR
TODAY/S HIGHS...WHICH WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 60S. WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS FRONT BRIEFLY STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...AND THESE MAY
HAVE TO BE REMOVED IF THERE ISN/T MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
COURSE OF TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH
THE LACK OF FORCING...AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BECOME LIMITED IN THE
MID-LEVELS AFTER MON 00Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY STARTING
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TRENDING A TAD COOLER THAN
THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. SO...WENT WITH
A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...DID TREND A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF MORE CLIMO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN
THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 60S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BELIEVE ALLBLEND REFLECTS THIS
WELL. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS TEND TO
INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION TOO FAST IN A DROUGHT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCLUDED SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE TSRA NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THESE TSRA TO DIMINISH OR
DISSIPATE AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET FOR ANY KIND OF MENTION.
FOR NOW HAVE TREND A BIT MORE CLOUD CLOUD COVER FOR A FEW HOURS
DUE TO RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR 081200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR SKY COVER AND P6SM EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS ISOLATED CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO
SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PLACE MFVR FOG AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENT HAS CHANGED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...BELIEVE WINDS AND A STILL VERY DRY
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY FORMATION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASING WITH TEMPS IN THE PROCESS OF REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE MID 80S. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OVER THE BLUEGRASS APPEARS
TO BE RUNNING OUT OF GAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT DO NOT WANT TO GET
TOO CARRIED AWAY JUST YET. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH
INITIATION TODAY AND NOT SURPRISINGLY AS THEY GENERALLY DO NOT HANDLE
CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL. 12Z NAM WOULD IMPLY BACKING OFF POPS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE 11Z HRRR IS EVEN LEANER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE 09Z SREF LOOKS BETTER FOR PRECIP AFTER 21Z
AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE 13Z RUC...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE IDEA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH
LIKELY POPS STILL RESERVED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE NEAR TERM POPS...SKY AND T/TD
TRENDS. UPDATES SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY SO LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WANING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
SOME FRONTOGENESIS. OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. CURRENT
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE WITH A INCREASINGLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND A CAP OVERHEAD. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST COMES
THIS MORNING AS WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND HIGH INTO WESTERN KY AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO NORTHERN KY. THIS ALONG WITH APPROACHING
SUPPORT FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...TO INITIATE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL THOUGHTS
HAVE MAY HAVE SUGGESTED THIS TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXPECTED SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SO
TRIED TEMPER THE HIGHS IN THE NORTH INTO THE LOW 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A JET
MAX JUST SKIRTING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND DECENT
FORCING WITH THE FRONT DIVING SOUTH...THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY MAY MAKE
NO DIFFERENCE IN LESSENING A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS DEWS TOPPING OUT AROUND 70 AND ABOVE NORMAL 90 DEGREE HEAT COUPLED
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THE PUSH SOUTH...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND THE GFS AGREE WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BY THIS TIME...THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH CONVECTION RE INTENSIFYING WITH
THE AFTERNOON HEAT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED MONITORED FOR HYDRO
ISSUES EVEN THOUGH LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN A DROUGHT. ALSO...THE
CHANGE IN AIR MASSES WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A VERY BEARABLE
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALOFT THAT THE RIDGE PROVIDING OUR
HEATWAVE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS FINALLY MET ITS MATCH. A
LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PLACE EAST
KENTUCKY BENEATH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
SWEEPING PAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THAT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT HEIGHTS WILL NOT RISE MUCH IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND A WEAK LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION
IN A LOW MID LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH A BERMUDA HIGH TYPE OF RIDGE IS BEING HINTED AT IN
THE MODELS FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT ALOFT...AND MINOR SHORTWAVES INVOLVED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A HEALTHY DIURNAL
COMPONENT AS THE INFLUENCES OF THE SFC FEATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WANES WITH TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE. FOR STARTERS THE HEAT OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL BE GONE
AS A DIFFERENT AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST MOVES INTO EAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF. SECONDLY...THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO...BUT APPARENTLY
NOT THROUGH...THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
VALLEY. DESPITE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING PAST NORTH OF IT...THE
STRIATION BETWEEN THE LOWER POPS NORTH AND HIGHER ONES SOUTH WILL BE
A CONSTANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO
PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN TIMING OF OUR BEST CONVECTION CHANCES. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH VIA ITS BROAD
CIRCULATION. THAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES AND COULD
GIVE THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ANOTHER SURGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY COULD START TO SERIOUSLY LESSEN...AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN TIER...BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE...IF ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR POPS
GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE FRONT
WILL END UP. ACCORDINGLY...MADE THE MOST CHANGES TO POPS AND BEEFED
UP THE DIURNAL FACTOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE TERRAIN WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE WELCOMED
MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIKELY CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
IFR AFTER 20Z AT THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z WITH
WHAT SHOULD BE A WELL MOISTENED BL FOG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
859 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADUALLY WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900AM UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP TO H600 TO CREATE A
FEW SPRINKLES. NAM...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO
VARYING DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF HOULTON WITH
ABUNDANT H850 MOISTURE...BUT MIXING SHOULD STILL ALLOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
UPDATE...655 AM CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRISK FLOW NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS LOW PRES REMAINS NRLY
STATIONARY WELL NNE OF THE REGION... THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
PLEASANT WX PTRN FOR THE AREA W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES THRU THE PD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BRISK...SPCLY MON W/
GUST OF 25-30 MPH PSBL ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN AREAS THEN WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON TUE. NO MAJOR CONCERNS THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL SUMMER PTRN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR THE
EXTENDED PD... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MID WEEK
THEN SAGS TO THE S...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS BY TO THE N. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MAY ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO SLIP INTO NRN AREAS FRI NGT OR SAT. GENERALLY EXPECT A
TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS W/ TIME W/ JUST A FEW
ISOLD MAINLY AFTN RW/TRW PSBL ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS...
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS EXPECTED...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS MON THROUGH
TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/...
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES OVR 90 AT 9AM - THIS IS MUCH MORE
REMINISCENT OF MY LONG AGO DAYS IN THE DESERT SW THAN THE MID
ATLC. HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE ALONG AND S OF
THE PTMC. BUT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY - 11Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT STRETCHNG ACROSS SRN NJ ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN BACK TO
CENTRAL MO. HIGH PRES OVR NRN MN HV DROPPED TEMPS BACK INTO THE
60S IN THE UPR MIDWEST. IN FURTHER GOOD NEWS...WHILE OUR HOURLY
ROUNDUP HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF GRTR THAN 90 AT VIRTUALLY ALL OB
SITES...THE PHL OFFICE`S HRLY ROUNDUP ONLY HAS 90+ HEAT INDICES IN
THE SRN PART OF THEIR AREA. HENCE SLTLY MORE COMFORTABLE AIR IS COMING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA RMNS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS..W/ WIND/HAIL BEING THE THREATS. W/ THE FNT ENTERING NRN MD
IN THE MRNG THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR TEMPERING THE SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. ATTM THE RGNL RDR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES...AND HRRR DEPICTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
BUT W/ THE ATMOSPHERE AS JUICED AS IT IS - 12Z IAD SNDG HAS OVR
4600 J/KG...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD EXPLODE QUICKLY. LWR SRN
MD/CENTRAL SHEN VLLY COULD BE THE PRIME SPOTS EARLY THIS AFTN.
TNGT...CDFNT SHUD CONT SLOW SWD PROGRESSION...MOVING INTO CNTRL
THEN SRN VA BY 6Z. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONT OVNGT...ALTHOUGH SVR
RISK DECREASES WITH TIME. MINIMA WILL BE REGULATED BY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...SO MOST AREAS WILL HOLD AOA 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END SCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS MOST LOCALES...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...EACH SERVING TO FOCUS PRECIP. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...HELPING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DVLP AND MOVE WWD ACRS MID-ATLC AS CD FNT
SAGS SWD. SVR STORMS PSBL...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS. IN ANY
TSTM...BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE XPCD. SCATTERED ACTVITY CUD CONT TNGT...BUT PROBS LESS THAN
LIKELY. NLY FLOW PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD EARLY ON MONDAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCHO
TERMINAL SITE.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BCM NLY THIS MRNG. SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE NEAR
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...AND PSBLY CONT OVNGT. STRONG WINDS PSBL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS TNGT BEHIND
CDFNT...BUT LIKELY BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY...JULY 7...AT DCA
AND BWI...AND TIED AT IAD.
AT DCA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 105 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 102 IN 2010. THIS TEMPERATURE TIES
THE SECOND WARMEST TEMEPRATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE
ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURE WAS OBSERVED 20 JULY 1930 AND 6 AUGUST
1918...WHEN 106 DEGREES WAS REALIZED.
DCA HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82...WHICH BREAKS THE HIGH DAILY
MINIMUM RECORD OR 80F...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. IN ADDITION...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST ALL-TIME AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE OLD RECORD WAS 93
DEGREES...SET ON 22 AND 23 JULY 2011...AND 6 JULY 1999.
AT BWI...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 104 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 101 IN 2010.
AT IAD...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 101 DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE DAILY
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1988 AND 2010. THE MIN
TEMPERATURE WAS 75 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD HIGH DAILY MINIMUM OF
73 DEGREES SET IN 2010.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY AGAIN BE APPROACHED TODAY...BELOW ARE THE
DETAILS...
DAILY MAXIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 100 1993 97F
BWI SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
IAD SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
DAILY MINIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 80 2010 83F
BWI SUN JUL 8 79 1986 79F
IAD SUN JUL 8 78 2010 78F
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ009-011-013-
014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>039-
050>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...SBK/NWL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
716 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. TSTMS WILL
BE PSBL LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NE (EXCEPT AT ECG)
BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN VEER TO E/SE TOWARD EVENING.
WINDS AT ECG WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT
RIC/SBY. THIS WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED WITH LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 102/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEPT TAFS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ALL THE TAF SITES
WERE EXPERIENCING A STEADY WIND AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREDIBLY WARM FOR THE TIME OF DAY WITH
A READING OF 90 AT SBY AT 05Z.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY THEN VEER
TO EASTERLY TOWARD EVENING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 102/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEPT TAFS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ALL THE TAF SITES
WERE EXPERIENCING A STEADY WIND AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREAD. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREDIBLY WARM FOR THE TIME OF DAY WITH
A READING OF 90 AT SBY AT 05Z.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO NE BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY THEN VEER
TO EASTERLY TOWARD EVENING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 101/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS ABOVE 30 PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL CWA STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECISION WAS A RESULT OF THREE FACTORS.
FIRST...THE 12Z INL SOUNDING SHOWS A MUCH SMOOTHER WARM LAYER ALOFT
THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE CAPE WITH LESS INHIBITION ALOFT IN THIS CASE. SECOND...A
LONE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING AND HAS
RECENTLY KICKED OFF A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS TREND ERASES SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR. LASTLY...RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING
BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DESPITE DRY AIR ALOFT AS THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING ASSIST WITH
DESTABILIZATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES/NRN ONTARIO. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR IN
THE VCNTY OF INLAND MOVING LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
ANYTHING DEVELOPS. KSAW HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING SHRA OR TSRA WITH
MODELS HINTING AT MORE PRESISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF
KSAW. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES/NRN ONTARIO. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR IN
THE VCNTY OF INLAND MOVING LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
ANYTHING DEVELOPS. KSAW HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING SHRA OR TSRA WITH
MODELS HINTING AT MORE PRESISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF
KSAW. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
OVERALL...THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...AS JUST A FEW LIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST IS THE VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW 60S...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE RECENT STRING OF DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT HOT STRETCH...WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DIGS. THIS SETUP MEANS WE`LL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST.
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MID-HIGH
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED RETURNS... ANY PCPN IS REMAINING WELL ALOFT AT THIS POINT.
THESE CLOUDS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
ONE SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO... WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER
WEAKNESS IS ALSO APPARENT IN NORTH DAKOTA... AND THIS SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND
THESE FEATURES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS CAM RUNS
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION AS THE AREA OF WEAK
FORCING AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ANY ACTIVITY WHICH MANAGES
TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED... BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW POPS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE... THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE
MORNING... LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY... AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS... WITH VERY SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS STRETCH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST...MEANING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 588 HEIGHTS AT
500MB LOOK TO RETURN BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER
20 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... AND SHOULD MAINLY
JUST RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SOME BKN CEILINGS AOA 6KT AGL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
TIME. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
BREAK UP THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPING TO
PRODUCE THEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND SOME ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY... BUT AT
THIS TIME THE LIKELIHOOD SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO MENTION IT IN ANY OF
THE TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
KMSP... TAF REFLECTS OVERALL EXPECTATIONS WITH THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY BEING WHETHER WE SEE BKN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AND IF A SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT. BELIEVE
THERE IS A DECENT SHOT AT THE FORECAST BKN CEILINGS... BUT ANY
PCPN SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED... HENCE WHY NO MENTION WAS
INCLUDED. HOWEVER... SHOULD ANYTHING POP UP IT WOULD LIKELY BE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.
//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
948 AM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 12Z NAM12 BRINGING
A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR ALSO INDICATING PRECIPITATION MOVING FURTHER EAST
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED STORMS FROM WEST OF
A LINE FROM SHERIDAN...HARDIN TO ROUNDUP FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
PW`S AROUND .75 INCHES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CAUSING LOW
LEVEL CAPE TO APPROACH 600 J/KG. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
WITH MIXING TO TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MID TO UPPER 90S
ON TRACK. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO INFLUENCE THE CWA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED. THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR A SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLIES TO
NORTHWESTERLIES AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AS THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS...THEN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS BACK TO
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THE
MOUNTAINS. DID SCALE POPS BACK A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...OPTED TO KEEP
BROADBRUSHED POPS. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A WIND SWITCH TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING MAINLY
WESTERN ROUTES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MIDDENDORF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 064/096 065/098 065/094 065/096 065/097 065/095
2/T 21/B 11/B 22/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 093 054/094 056/098 056/094 055/095 055/096 055/092
2/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 12/T 12/T 22/T
HDN 099 062/099 063/100 063/095 063/098 063/099 061/097
2/T 21/U 11/U 22/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
MLS 096 065/099 067/098 068/098 068/100 068/100 068/098
1/U 00/U 11/U 12/T 21/B 11/U 22/T
4BQ 093 063/095 064/098 065/097 066/099 066/099 066/097
1/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 21/B 11/U 22/T
BHK 091 063/094 063/094 065/094 065/094 065/096 066/093
1/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U 22/T
SHR 090 059/092 060/096 060/094 060/096 060/097 058/094
2/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1056 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO TO THE REGION TUESDAY...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...AND REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1056 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE FOR A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION (7
C AT CWMW) ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR SHOWING A COUPLE SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT POP NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TEXT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IT WILL BE DRIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 MPH IN OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A BRIEF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRECEDING THIS FEATURE IT MIGHT BE HARD TO
REALIZE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS MOST REASONABLE
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...DESPITE SOME
MINOR GFS/EURO DIFFERENCES HERE AND THERE. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE
GFS SOLUTION OF DROPPING A SECONDARY AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION ON WED WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS...PREFERRING TO KEEP THINGS DRY PER CONSISTENT 00Z EURO
IDEA. THIS PLAYS WELL WITH INHERENT GFS MODEL BIASES OF PUSHING
COOL AIR SURGES TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE LONGER TERM TIME FRAMES.
BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OTHER
THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HERE AND THERE NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH MEAN GFS/EURO 18-00Z 925 MB BLENDED THERMAL
PROGS. INDEED...IF YOU BELIEVE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS THINGS MAY
TREND HOT AGAIN TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
OFFERED A CONSERVATIVE WARMING TREND OF 1-3 DEG EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH GREAT MID-SUMMER WX EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR/IFR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK 07-12Z MONDAY. OTW
SCT MID-LVL CIGS FROM FL050-100 TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SKC
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS AND OCCNLY
GUSTY TODAY...TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
PATCHY IFR DUE TO BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL CWA HAS SHOWED A
WEAKENING TREND...BUT WILL KEEP 20 POPS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
HAVE GOING WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE IS
ONLY SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS FAIRLY MINOR. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HRRR MODEL CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S. MADE A
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUDS AND WINDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TODAY AROUND 5-6KFT ALONG WITH ISOLD
-RW/TRW...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS MOIST BIAS AND QPF FIELDS ARE TOO
WET...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER EC/NAM THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS SAME BOUNDARY DID
NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS YESTERDAY THOUGH...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH STORM COVERAGE AT ALL. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
IN THE SOUTH THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.
FOR MON...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL AND BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF TODAYS READINGS.
ON TUE... SOME WEAK WAA AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
HERE...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. THE
LATEST GFS DOES PUSH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE WON/T EXPAND POPS EASTWARD.
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE NEAR MONDAYS READINGS...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH DECENT WAA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MID-WEEK...ALLOWING
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE
MORE FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN THAN ANOTHER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
655M EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY ON E KY INTO CENTRAL WV.
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR...SITUATE JUST NW OF PERRY COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. IT EXTENDED NE TO AN APPARENT WEAK WAVE IN
CENTRAL PA...AND THEN EWD FROM THERE...THE OTHER END EXTENDING
WSWWRD JUST N OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. AS IT MOVES S
TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG AND S OF IT THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVEN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. FRONTAL POSITION AND MOVEMENT
PLACES INSTABILITY AXIS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY SWD TONIGHT.
WHILE BUOYANCY IS IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ARE MODEST AT BEST...AND PW VALUES PEAKING AOA 2 IN IS ALMOST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING. ALL THIS BRINGS IN TO QUESTION
THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS CAN ORGANIZE SHORT OF SMALLER STORM SCALE
INTERACTIONS...BUT PRESENCE OF SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLIES JUST N OF
THE FRONT MAY HELP THIS EVENING. DEGREE AND EXTENT OF WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THIS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE
FCST WORDING AS INTRODUCED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
ZONE SHIFTS SWD TONIGHT AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF BUOYANCY. UPPER LEVEL VENTING IS ALSO SHOWN
TO DIMINISH EXCEPT WHERE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SETTLES IN OVER
NRN WV AND SE OHIO LATE.
HIGHS TODAY LOOKED TO BE JUST BELOW GUIDANCE BUT IN LINE WITH THE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT AND ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SWD SHIFT OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT OFF
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CWA IS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODEL FORECASTS ARE
SUGGESTING. REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE CWA SOMETIME LATER MONDAY. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING TO
BE A THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...AND DRIER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH DRIER AIR NOT FILTERING IN UNTIL
LATER MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO FILTER INTO PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS CWA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE DOG DAYS...THE MEAN 500 MB TROF IN THE OH
VLY WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER...BUT DOES NOT REALLY EXIT. A WEAK SUMMER
FLOW REMAINS. NO ORGANIZED FRONTS FROM THE WEST THRU NORTH
FORESEEN.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY TRY TO LEAK BACK NORTH IN
TIME...SO CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC GUIDANCE FOR OUR USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS...SUCH AS BECKLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A W TO E ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG...EVEN SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO
MOVE E TO SEWD...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF STRONG WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO CODE UP AT THIS TIME...FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE LIKELY TO DROP AT LEAST DOWN TO MVFR MOST AIRPORTS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NW TODAY AND THEN LIGHT N
TONIGHT. LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ALL
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DOWN TO ABOUT THE
POSITION PEGGED EARLIER BY THE RUC. THE LINE STILL SEEMS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE L60S IN WRN NY AND KBFD. HOWEVER...IT
MAY BE A MINOR ADVANCE OF THE NEW AIR MASS AS WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE. SOUPY AND STILL AIR IS FOUND TO THE
SOUTH OF IT. THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP DEWPOINTS LOWER A
BIT FASTER. THE BOUNDARY THESE THINGS ARE POPPING ON WILL SLIP
MORE TO THE SOUTH PER LATEST RUC WINDS. BUT IT WILL ONLY GET DOWN
TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WON/T GET OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING HELPS
TO RE-FIRE AND/OR EXPAND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP ON WITH SCT POPS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SPC
SLIGHT RISK HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND WHERE THE HIGHER CAPES ARE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN
WHERE THE STORMS ARE. SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE AND WE WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT REAR/ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL
JUST MENTION SOME POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO.
MAXES WILL BE ABOVE NORMALS IN MOST PLACES BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN SATURDAY WITH 80S WIDESPREAD AND L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT COULD HANG ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER TONIGHT. LOW CHC POPS ARE THE BEST
WAY TO PORTRAY THIS POSSIBILITY. CLEARING OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S THERE...BUT 60S A GOOD FCST WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND STILL MOIST AIR IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.
WHILE DRY AIR WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO THE SRN BORDER. THUS...CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION - PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN - LOOK GOOD FOR THE FAR
SRN TIER OF COS. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP IT DRY AND MO SUNNY OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA. MAXES WILL BE NEARLY NORMAL...AND HUMIDITY
LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
OF CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE DRY AIR. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER FOR MOST DAYS...BUT ALSO INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS INTO TUESDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MINOR SFC REFLECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA ATTM WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR KUNV ESE TOWARD KMDT. HAZE AND
FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT AOO AND LNS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH MIXING AND DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT DURING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PM TSRA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PA AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988. KLNS HAD AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR RECORD OF
99F. WILLIAMSPORT CAME JUST TWO DEGS SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH THERE
AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED IN SHORTLY AFTER THE TEMP REACHED
99F. THE STORM MADE A 50KT GUST AND DROPPED THE TEMP AT KIPT
ALMOST 30F.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...GARTNER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
629 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ALL
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DOWN TO ABOUT THE
POSITION PEGGED EARLIER BY THE RUC. THE LINE STILL SEEMS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE L60S IN WRN NY AND KBFD. HOWEVER...IT
MAY BE A MINOR ADVANCE OF THE NEW AIR MASS AS WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE. SOUPY AND STILL AIR IS FOUND TO THE
SOUTH OF IT. THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP DEWPOINTS LOWER A
BIT FASTER. THE BOUNDARY THESE THINGS ARE POPPING ON WILL SLIP
MORE TO THE SOUTH PER LATEST RUC WINDS. BUT IT WILL ONLY GET DOWN
TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WON/T GET OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING HELPS
TO RE-FIRE AND/OR EXPAND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP ON WITH SCT POPS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SPC
SLIGHT RISK HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND WHERE THE HIGHER CAPES ARE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN
WHERE THE STORMS ARE. SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE AND WE WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT REAR/ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL
JUST MENTION SOME POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO.
MAXES WILL BE ABOVE NORMALS IN MOST PLACES BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN SATURDAY WITH 80S WIDESPREAD AND L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT COULD HANG ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER TONIGHT. LOW CHC POPS ARE THE BEST
WAY TO PORTRAY THIS POSSIBILITY. CLEARING OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S THERE...BUT 60S A GOOD FCST WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND STILL MOIST AIR IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.
WHILE DRY AIR WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO THE SRN BORDER. THUS...CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION - PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN - LOOK GOOD FOR THE FAR
SRN TIER OF COS. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP IT DRY AND MO SUNNY OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA. MAXES WILL BE NEARLY NORMAL...AND HUMIDITY
LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE SW UNITED STATES AND A TROF DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
OF CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE DRY AIR. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER FOR MOST DAYS...BUT ALSO INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS INTO TUESDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MINOR SFC REFLECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
12Z GEFS HAS THE STALLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FINALLY LIFTING BY THURSDAY AND THE STRONG JET
PUTS CENTRAL PA IN THE JET EXIT REGION. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT IN NEXT WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. REMAINING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MAINLY MVFR IN HAZE AND PATCHY FOG IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC WINDS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PM TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PA AIRFIELDS...BUT ODDS FAVOR A DRY FCST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KMDT TIED THE RECORD MAX OF 101F SET IN THE HOT SUMMER OF
1988. KLNS HAD AN IDENTICAL HIGH OF 101F...BROKE THEIR RECORD OF
99F. WILLIAMSPORT CAME JUST TWO DEGS SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH THERE
AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED IN SHORTLY AFTER THE TEMP REACHED
99F. THE STORM MADE A 50KT GUST AND DROPPED THE TEMP AT KIPT
ALMOST 30F.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
900 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY
EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE RISING SUN
SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING OF THIS IN ZFP PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST IS PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING ISO THUNDERSHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WEAK WAVE AND WIND
SHIFT LINE MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HRRR ALSO SHOWING SOME
ISO DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DESPITE THE STAGNANT PATTERN...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE BIGGEST
ISSUE IN THE FORECAST. FOR TODAY THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK LL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET A
COUPLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
ONCE WE LOSE DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT THE REST OF TONIGHT TO BE
DRY. THEN WE TURN TOWARD MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE GFS
TROPOPAUSE MAPS...SHOULD TRACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AND
THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE A DECENT H7 THETAE RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PCPN ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LACK OF DECENT LL FEATURE AND STILL LIMITED
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PCPN. SO FOR
NOW AM GOING WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WE BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED. THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...MAINLY ON
TIMING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE TROF
KICKING UP A LLJ AND SOME INSTABILITY BY WED NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS OFF ANY ACTIVITY UNTIL THURSDAY. LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE ALLBLEND. AS THE LEE SIDE
TROF HOLDS STEADY AND THEN TRAVERSES THROUGH THE CWA AS A COLD
FRONT PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY. THE MODELS
DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS KEEPING A VERY ACTIVE
SHORTWAVE PATTERN AND THE ECMWF BECOMING QUIETER UNDER A MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS KEPT THE
ALLBLEND POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME IFR GROUND FOG NEAR KABR EARLY THIS
MORNING THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE SUNRISE BY 1230Z. A
WEAK COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...WITH SOME INSTABILITY BUILT UP
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE MAY AFFECT KABR
BRIEFLY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NEAR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST TSTMS AT 2040Z
WERE JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON AND EAST OF WILLCOX. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE RUC HRRR AND UNIV OF AZ NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE RUC FAVORS AN AREA FOR PRECIP FROM JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON WWD INTO THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...NAM-WRF FAVORS AN AREA FOR PRECIP FROM NE OF TUCSON
TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ INTO THIS EVENING. WILL DEPICT ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR
WEST AS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF COCHISE
COUNTY. THE BULK OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
MON-TUE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BECOME CENTERED OVER NWRN AZ/SWRN UT. CHANCE-
CATEGORY POPS MERITED FOR ERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN SECTIONS.
WED-FRI...
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER HIGH TO BE OVER UTAH/WRN COLORADO. ELY
MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
MOVE INTO SE AZ THIS PERIOD. THE 08/12Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST WITH
QPF/S VERSUS THE ECMWF. ALSO...GFS WAS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE
DEPICTION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE AREA VERSUS
ECMWF. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND THUS TRENDED POPS UPWARD...
ESPECIALLY WED-THUR. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS MERITED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS MOST SECTIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
SAT-SUN...
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED THIS PERIOD VIA THE GFS/
ECMWF. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ERN SECTIONS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WEST OF TUCSON.
HIGH TEMPS MON-TUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO THEN OCCUR WED-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA THRU THIS EVENING THEN BULK OF
PRECIP TO END BY 09/06Z. ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY FROM KTUS
VICINITY EWD MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
10/00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. EXPECT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
923 AM MST SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ERN COCHISE COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED GENERALLY FROM THE MID
50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-20 DEGS F HIGHER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THIS TIME SAT. 08/12Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...PARTICULARLY IN THE SURFACE-700 MB
LAYER. TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.35 INCHES...AND THIS VALUE IS
WITHIN THE RANGE OF 1.20 - 1.40 INCHES DEPICTED ACROSS SE AZ AS PER
THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT. HAVE NOTED THAT THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS STRONGER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ADVANCED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THIS
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. 08/09Z SREF...08/12Z UNIV OF
AZ NAM/WRF...AND 08/13Z RUC HRRR WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING TO OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS GENERALLY FROM HANNAGAN MEADOW TO TUCSON TO WEST OF
NOGALES. ASSUMING THE RUC HRRR TO BE REALITY...SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP BY AROUND NOON ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS JUST SW
OF TUCSON. SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THEN MOVE WWD PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS WRN
PIMA COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BULK OF ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS EXTENDED FURTHER WWD INTO
THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION THIS EVENING WITH DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL INCREASE POPS TO DEPICT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BASED ON THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...INVERTED TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH WEST THIS
MORNING BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CHALLENGING FORECAST
TODAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS OVER THE AREA NARROWS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MODELS ALSO SHOWING CONFLICTING IDEAS FOR TODAY. NAM
KEEPS STORMS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE GFS IS HINTING AT MOVING
STORMS OFF THE RIM TOWARD TUCSON AND SW. STORMS ON THE RIM TRIED TO
MOVE SW ON SATURDAY BUT DIED BEFORE GETTING TO SAFFORD. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST IN TACK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THEN
STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BULK OF PRECIP TO END BY 09/06Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SURFACE WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU MONDAY MORNING OR 09/12.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL LEAD TO STRONG RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. STRONG...
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
WEEK WHILE MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITHIN ABOUT
10 MILES OF THE SOUTH-FACING COASTS AS SEA BREEZES HAVE INITIATED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. SIMULATED RADAR PRODUCT FROM NAM...SPC WRF
AND HRRR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS POPPING UP DURING THIS
TIME. 12Z GFS HINTS AT THIS AS WELL. WITH PRIMARILY NVA FORECAST
BELOW 500MB AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SO
FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR MON AND TUE
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
80S BOTH DAYS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S
IN THE SUBURBS...AND MID TO UPPER 60S NYC.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MON AFT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER ACROSS THE HILLS WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC. DRY AIR AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS AND
THUS FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY.
GENERALLY...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SKIES. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AT
TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MODELS DIVERGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES AND AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF
AND THE 12Z GFS IS THAT THE GFS BRINGS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. THIS SURFACE LOW IS IN
RESPONSE TO A CUT OFF LOW THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE GFS
WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...ESP CONCERNING HOW FAR THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. HAVING PUSHED THROUGH IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SITES ALREADY...BEGAN THE TAFS WITH A SLY FLOW IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
MOD CONFIDENCE OF IT MAKING KLGA AROUND 21Z...LOW TO MOD
CONFIDENCE OF REACHING KEWR SO KEPT ONLY A SWLY FLOW AFTER 21Z FOR
THEM.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE N
AND EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
PSBL LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME OF TIMING AND OCCURRENCE. SO WILL WITHHOLD FROM
MENTIONING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SUB VFR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE MARINE ZONES TODAY WITH SUB-SCA CRITERIA WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT
AND SEAS WILL BE 1 FT OR LESS ON LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/BAYS.
QUIET CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES BUILD TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
WEEK WHILE MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITHIN ABOUT
10 MILES OF THE SOUTH-FACING COASTS AS SEA BREEZES HAVE INITIATED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. SIMULATED RADAR PRODUCT FROM NAM...SPC WRF
AND HRRR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS POPPING UP DURING THIS
TIME. 12Z GFS HINTS AT THIS AS WELL. WITH PRIMARILY NVA FORECAST
BELOW 500MB AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SO
FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR MON AND TUE
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
80S BOTH DAYS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S
IN THE SUBURBS...AND MID TO UPPER 60S NYC.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MON AFT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER ACROSS THE HILLS WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC. DRY AIR AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS AND
THUS FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY.
GENERALLY...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SKIES. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AT
TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MODELS DIVERGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES AND AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF
AND THE 12Z GFS IS THAT THE GFS BRINGS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. THIS SURFACE LOW IS IN
RESPONSE TO A CUT OFF LOW THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE GFS
WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WINDS AT 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...BACKING TO A W-NW
FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT
IMMEDIATE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO
MORE OF A SW FLOW.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
PSBL LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME OF TIMING AND OCCURRENCE. SO WILL WITHHOLD FROM
MENTIONING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE MARINE ZONES TODAY WITH SUB-SCA CRITERIA WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT
AND SEAS WILL BE 1 FT OR LESS ON LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/BAYS.
QUIET CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES BUILD TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS/MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER
THE CONTROL OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS
BEING FORCED WAY UP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THIS RIDGE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMER FASHION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE IS
QUITE WEAK AND WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DOMINATE
THE FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE RIDGING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH...COMBINED WITH LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO TRIGGER
A SCATTERING OF NOCTURNAL/MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE PASSING TROUGH. ONCE
WE GET INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY AND AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS TO RESULT IN
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGH END
CHANCE NORTH AND MAINLY LIKELY SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER LAND TO LIKELY DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER LOOK FOR POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ACTIVE
NOCTURNAL SURGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FL FROM THE OPEN
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT INTO THE GULF AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO THE GULF
WITH AN AXIS OVER CENTRAL FL THAT SHIFTS TO NORTH FL OR SOUTH GA BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PERMIT
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE SEA BREEZE AND DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED EACH AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED
EACH EVENING. TEMPERATURES RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO BE AROUND. BEST CHANCE IS LIKELY OVER
FMY AND RSW AS WELL AS INLAND AFFECTING LAL. OTHERWISE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE NEAR THE COAST WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN A TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 93 77 91 / 30 30 30 50
FMY 75 94 75 90 / 20 40 30 60
GIF 74 95 74 94 / 30 30 30 40
SRQ 76 92 75 91 / 20 30 30 50
BKV 71 93 71 93 / 30 30 30 50
SPG 79 92 79 91 / 30 30 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
611 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
08/22Z RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS
IN PLACE WHICH HAS KEPT DEEP CONVECTION FROM INITIATING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WESTERN ZONES. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN
THE 80S WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS AND BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 70S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TYPE PATTERN...WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDLANDS WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS
PULSE TYPE CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED 20
POPS FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN MODEST MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
INLAND COUNTIES NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG A INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE MID LVL RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED AN INCREASING TREND
OF PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG AN ENHANCED LEE TROUGH INLAND. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BY MIDWEEK AS THE ENHANCED LEE TROUGH INLAND AND EASTWARD
SLIDING ATLANTIC HIGH RESULT IN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH ENHANCED PRECIP COVERAGE AND THE LINGERING COLD FRONT IN
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 90S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED...AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED TO OUR WEST
WHILE A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NC/SC LATE
IN THE WEEK AND ENHANCES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE TO OUR WEST BUT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT NEXT WEEKEND WE MAY SEE UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH COULD DECREASE RAIN
POTENTIAL A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS 15-20
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE WATERS
REMAIN BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE
TROUGH. EXPECT FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES OVER LAND. A SOLID 15 KT WIND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BEFORE
MOVING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WHILE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS AROUND MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FEET...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING
CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING CAUSING
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE. SO INCREASED THE WINDS BASED ON THE RUC MODEL AS WELL AS
LOWERING THE DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL LOWER THE HEAT INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL FURTHER AWAY FROM HEAT INDEX CRITERIA.
ALSO MOVED BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENING AS WELL.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. USED THE HIGHER MET
MOS POPS OF AROUND 30 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS AGAIN NEAR 100.
THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD HELP SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NORTH PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET MOS POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LINGERING DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER OVER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CAROLINA SO EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST TIME...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED SETUP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND EARLY MORNING FOG
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
TSTMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST
POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT STILL DO NOT WANT
TO GET TOO AMBITIOUS WITH PULLING POPS AROUND THE KY/TN LINE NOW THAT
INITIATION IS UNDER WAY. SPC IS CONSIDERING A WATCH AND AT THIS
POINT FEEL THAT ONE WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STAY
TUNED...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASING WITH TEMPS IN THE PROCESS OF REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE MID 80S. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OVER THE BLUEGRASS APPEARS
TO BE RUNNING OUT OF GAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT DO NOT WANT TO GET
TOO CARRIED AWAY JUST YET. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH
INITIATION TODAY AND NOT SURPRISINGLY AS THEY GENERALLY DO NOT HANDLE
CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL. 12Z NAM WOULD IMPLY BACKING OFF POPS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE 11Z HRRR IS EVEN LEANER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE 09Z SREF LOOKS BETTER FOR PRECIP AFTER 21Z
AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE 13Z RUC...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE IDEA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH
LIKELY POPS STILL RESERVED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE NEAR TERM POPS...SKY AND T/TD
TRENDS. UPDATES SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY SO LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WANING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
SOME FRONTOGENESIS. OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. CURRENT
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE WITH A INCREASINGLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND A CAP OVERHEAD. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST COMES
THIS MORNING AS WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND HIGH INTO WESTERN KY AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO NORTHERN KY. THIS ALONG WITH APPROACHING
SUPPORT FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...TO INITIATE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL THOUGHTS
HAVE MAY HAVE SUGGESTED THIS TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXPECTED SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SO
TRIED TEMPER THE HIGHS IN THE NORTH INTO THE LOW 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A JET
MAX JUST SKIRTING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND DECENT
FORCING WITH THE FRONT DIVING SOUTH...THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY MAY MAKE
NO DIFFERENCE IN LESSENING A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS DEWS TOPPING OUT AROUND 70 AND ABOVE NORMAL 90 DEGREE HEAT COUPLED
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THE PUSH SOUTH...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND THE GFS AGREE WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BY THIS TIME...THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH CONVECTION RE INTENSIFYING WITH
THE AFTERNOON HEAT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED MONITORED FOR HYDRO
ISSUES EVEN THOUGH LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN A DROUGHT. ALSO...THE
CHANGE IN AIR MASSES WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A VERY BEARABLE
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALOFT THAT THE RIDGE PROVIDING OUR
HEATWAVE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS FINALLY MET ITS MATCH. A
LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL PLACE EAST
KENTUCKY BENEATH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
SWEEPING PAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THAT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT HEIGHTS WILL NOT RISE MUCH IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND A WEAK LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION
IN A LOW MID LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH A BERMUDA HIGH TYPE OF RIDGE IS BEING HINTED AT IN
THE MODELS FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT ALOFT...AND MINOR SHORTWAVES INVOLVED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A HEALTHY DIURNAL
COMPONENT AS THE INFLUENCES OF THE SFC FEATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WANES WITH TIME.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE. FOR STARTERS THE HEAT OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL BE GONE
AS A DIFFERENT AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST MOVES INTO EAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF. SECONDLY...THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO...BUT APPARENTLY
NOT THROUGH...THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
VALLEY. DESPITE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING PAST NORTH OF IT...THE
STRIATION BETWEEN THE LOWER POPS NORTH AND HIGHER ONES SOUTH WILL BE
A CONSTANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO
PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN TIMING OF OUR BEST CONVECTION CHANCES. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH VIA ITS BROAD
CIRCULATION. THAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES AND COULD
GIVE THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ANOTHER SURGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY COULD START TO SERIOUSLY LESSEN...AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN TIER...BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE...IF ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR POPS
GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE FRONT
WILL END UP. ACCORDINGLY...MADE THE MOST CHANGES TO POPS AND BEEFED
UP THE DIURNAL FACTOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE TERRAIN WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE WELCOMED
MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KY
AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS OF ERN KY BY 20-21Z.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO IFR
OR WORSE IN AND AROUND ANY OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY STORMS THROUGH 12Z WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB/GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
100 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADUALLY WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
0900AM UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP TO H600 TO CREATE A
FEW SPRINKLES. NAM...RAP AND HRRR ALL SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO
VARYING DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF HOULTON WITH
ABUNDANT H850 MOISTURE...BUT MIXING SHOULD STILL ALLOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
UPDATE...655 AM CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRISK FLOW NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS LOW PRES REMAINS NRLY
STATIONARY WELL NNE OF THE REGION... THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
PLEASANT WX PTRN FOR THE AREA W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES THRU THE PD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BRISK...SPCLY MON W/
GUST OF 25-30 MPH PSBL ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN AREAS THEN WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON TUE. NO MAJOR CONCERNS THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL SUMMER PTRN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR THE
EXTENDED PD... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MID WEEK
THEN SAGS TO THE S...ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS BY TO THE N. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MAY ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO SLIP INTO NRN AREAS FRI NGT OR SAT. GENERALLY EXPECT A
TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS W/ TIME W/ JUST A FEW
ISOLD MAINLY AFTN RW/TRW PSBL ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS...
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS EXPECTED...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS MON THROUGH
TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ZFP UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WW 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED JUST
NORTH OF FENWICK IS...STRETCHING BACK JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE BACK INTO SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KY. PRE-FRONTAL CU HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS NOW POPPING UP ALONG
THE FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS BLUE RIDGE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE CHC FOR PRECIP WILL SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
MAIN FRONT NEARS THE REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTN/EVE AS RUC AND NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 2" BY 00Z/MON. THE FRONT STALLS AS IT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. AS OF 12Z MONDAY, WEAKENING
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM VA CAPES, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH.
MONDAY...
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT ON
MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN QUEBEC
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ALONG FRINGE OF BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, WITH A GOOD CHC OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL, THOUGH WILL
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID. MAXIMA GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME HUNG UP FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL AREA SET UP IN THE RRQ OF
40-60 KT UPPER JET, WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING VERTICAL
COLUMN RELATIVELY SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS. AT THE SFC,
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND BECOME LITTLE MORE
THAN A BAGGY WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CRITICAL IN ORIENTING AREA OF HIGHEST RAIN CHCS, AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH TUE/WED. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS. IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED BY GFS, WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON, NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
WOULD MISS OUT ON MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL. FOR NOW, INHERITED
HIGH END CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IS VERY REASONABLE, AND WILL BE GENERALLY ADHERED TO AS
IS, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER CHCS/AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FROM HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK CONTINUES. MODELS AND
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING MAXIMA RIGHT
AROUND 1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S). EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MID-
UPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM
A CUTOFF SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP
A FAIRLY MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND
CAROLINAS...AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACRS THE CAROLINAS (ECMWF) OR
FAR SE VA (GFS). FOR NOW...FCST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE DRIER ECMWF (AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER
OUR NC ZONES ON SOUTH) AND WETTER GFS FOR THE WED NIGHT-THU
TIMEFRAME. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS NORTH...TO 40-50% POPS IN
NC...MAINLY WED EVENING AND AGAIN THU AFTN. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE BELOW AVG...MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU NIGHT-SAT...WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC STATES. THIS
WILL ACT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA ON
FRI...WITH SSW FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR THE MID ATLC GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS HIGHER
POPS/40% ON FRI OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH ONLY 20% IN SE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MID LEVEL HGTS RISE. HIGHS IN THE 80S CONTINUE. SLOW
WARMING TREND TO NEAR CLIMO READINGS FOR HIGHS TEMPS SAT-SUN AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN (HIGHS UPR 80S TO NEAR 90). WILL CARRY ONLY
DIURNAL/AFTN-EVENING CHC FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS 20% POPS EAST
OF I-95/30% WEST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FOR TONIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR SURGE IS WEAK W/
THE FRONT...SO WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME CHAOTIC AT TIMES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL EFFECTS FROM TSTMS.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL AVG OUT NE IN DIRECTION OVER NRN 1/2 OF THE
WATERS...WITH SW OR S FLOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO N/NE BY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT/MON MORNING FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LACK
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FCST WILL KEEP
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CAPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY DESPITE NE
FLOW...WAVES AVG OUT AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS 3-4 FT
NORTH...2-3 FT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL.
MODELS GENLY AGREE AT STALLING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN NC FOR SEVERAL DAYS/MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DUE TO WEAK
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
FCST WILL SHOW WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS DUE TO
MODEL TENDENCY OF UNDER-FORECASTING WINDS IN E/NE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE ALREADY ESTABLISHED AT RIC
(103)...ORF (101) AND SBY (100). JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD AT
ECG...WITH NEW DAILY RECORD MAX T POSSIBLE W/SEVERAL HRS OF
HEATING TO GO.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY/JULY 8TH:
RIC HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 103...OLD RECORD/102 (1993)
ORF HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 101...OLD RECORD/100 (1993)
SBY HAS TIED THE RECORD WITH 100.....RECORD IS 100 (1993)
ECG HAS SO FAR REACHED 100............RECORD IS 101 (1987)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ZFP UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WW 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED JUST
NORTH OF FENWICK IS...STRETCHING BACK JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE BACK INTO SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KY. PRE-FRONTAL CU HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS NOW POPPING UP ALONG
THE FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS BLUE RIDGE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE CHC FOR PRECIP WILL SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
MAIN FRONT NEARS THE REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTN/EVE AS RUC AND NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 2" BY 00Z/MON. THE FRONT STALLS AS IT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. AS OF 12Z MONDAY, WEAKENING
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM VA CAPES, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH.
MONDAY...
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT ON
MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN QUEBEC
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ALONG FRINGE OF BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, WITH A GOOD CHC OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL, THOUGH WILL
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID. MAXIMA GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME HUNG UP FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL AREA SET UP IN THE RRQ OF
40-60 KT UPPER JET, WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING VERTICAL
COLUMN RELATIVELY SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS. AT THE SFC,
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND BECOME LITTLE MORE
THAN A BAGGY WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CRITICAL IN ORIENTING AREA OF HIGHEST RAIN CHCS, AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH TUE/WED. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS. IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED BY GFS, WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON, NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
WOULD MISS OUT ON MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL. FOR NOW, INHERITED
HIGH END CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IS VERY REASONABLE, AND WILL BE GENERALLY ADHERED TO AS
IS, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER CHCS/AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FROM HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK CONTINUES. MODELS AND
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING MAXIMA RIGHT
AROUND 1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S). EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MID-
UPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM
A CUTOFF SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP
A FAIRLY MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND
CAROLINAS...AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACRS THE CAROLINAS (ECMWF) OR
FAR SE VA (GFS). FOR NOW...FCST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE DRIER ECMWF (AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER
OUR NC ZONES ON SOUTH) AND WETTER GFS FOR THE WED NIGHT-THU
TIMEFRAME. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS NORTH...TO 40-50% POPS IN
NC...MAINLY WED EVENING AND AGAIN THU AFTN. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE BELOW AVG...MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU NIGHT-SAT...WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC STATES. THIS
WILL ACT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA ON
FRI...WITH SSW FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR THE MID ATLC GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS HIGHER
POPS/40% ON FRI OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH ONLY 20% IN SE COASTAL
SECTIONS AS MID LEVEL HGTS RISE. HIGHS IN THE 80S CONTINUE. SLOW
WARMING TREND TO NEAR CLIMO READINGS FOR HIGHS TEMPS SAT-SUN AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN (HIGHS UPR 80S TO NEAR 90). WILL CARRY ONLY
DIURNAL/AFTN-EVENING CHC FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS 20% POPS EAST
OF I-95/30% WEST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FOR TONIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR SURGE IS WEAK W/
THE FRONT...SO WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME CHAOTIC AT TIMES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL EFFECTS FROM TSTMS.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL AVG OUT NE IN DIRECTION OVER NRN 1/2 OF THE
WATERS...WITH SW OR S FLOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO N/NE BY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT/MON MORNING FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LACK
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FCST WILL KEEP
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CAPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY DESPITE NE
FLOW...WAVES AVG OUT AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS 3-4 FT
NORTH...2-3 FT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL.
MODELS GENLY AGREE AT STALLING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN NC FOR SEVERAL DAYS/MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DUE TO WEAK
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
FCST WILL SHOW WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS DUE TO
MODEL TENDENCY OF UNDER-FORECASTING WINDS IN E/NE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE ALREADY ESTABLISHED AT RIC (103) AND
SBY (100). JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD AT ORF AND ECG...WITH NEW
DAILY RECORD MAX T POSSIBLE W/SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING TO GO.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY/JULY 8TH:
RIC HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 103...OLD RECORD/102 (1993)
ORF HAS SET A NEW RECORD WITH 101...OLD RECORD/100 (1993)
SBY HAS TIED THE RECORD WITH 100.....RECORD IS 100 (1993)
ECG HAS SO FAR REACHED 99............RECORD IS 101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ZFP UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WW 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED JUST
NORTH OF FENWICK IS...STRETCHING BACK JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE BACK INTO SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KY. PRE-FRONTAL CU HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS NOW POPPING UP ALONG
THE FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS BLUE RIDGE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE CHC FOR PRECIP WILL SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
MAIN FRONT NEARS THE REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTN/EVE AS RUC AND NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 2" BY 00Z/MON. THE FRONT STALLS AS IT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. AS OF 12Z MONDAY, WEAKENING
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM VA CAPES, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH.
MONDAY...
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT ON
MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN QUEBEC
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ALONG FRINGE OF BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, WITH A GOOD CHC OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL, THOUGH WILL
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID. MAXIMA GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME HUNG UP FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL AREA SET UP IN THE RRQ OF
40-60 KT UPPER JET, WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING VERTICAL
COLUMN RELATIVELY SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS. AT THE SFC,
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL HAVE WASHED OUT AND BECOME LITTLE MORE
THAN A BAGGY WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CRITICAL IN ORIENTING AREA OF HIGHEST RAIN CHCS, AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH TUE/WED. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS. IF THE TROUGH DIGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED BY GFS, WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON, NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
WOULD MISS OUT ON MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL. FOR NOW, INHERITED
HIGH END CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IS VERY REASONABLE, AND WILL BE GENERALLY ADHERED TO AS
IS, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER CHCS/AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FROM HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK CONTINUES. MODELS AND
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING MAXIMA RIGHT
AROUND 1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 80S). EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACRS THE WATERS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FOR TONIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR SURGE IS WEAK W/
THE FRONT...SO WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME CHAOTIC AT TIMES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL EFFECTS FROM TSTMS.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL AVG OUT NE IN DIRECTION OVER NRN 1/2 OF THE
WATERS...WITH SW OR S FLOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO N/NE BY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT/MON MORNING FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LACK
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FCST WILL KEEP
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CAPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY DESPITE NE
FLOW...WAVES AVG OUT AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS 3-4 FT
NORTH...2-3 FT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL.
MODELS GENLY AGREE AT STALLING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN NC FOR SEVERAL DAYS/MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DUE TO WEAK
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
FCST WILL SHOW WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS DUE TO
MODEL TENDENCY OF UNDERFORECASTING WINDS IN E/NE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE ALREADY ESTABLISHED AT RIC (103) AND
SBY (100). JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD AT ORF AND ECG...WITH NEW
DAILY RECORD MAX T POSSIBLE W/SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING TO GO.
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 103/102 (1993)
ORF 100/100 (1993)
SBY 101/100 (1993)
ECG 101/101 (1987)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS OFFLINE DUE TO AN UNSPECIFIED COMMS LINK ERROR.
TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL BE DISPATCHED AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. UPDATES WILL BE PASSED ALONG AS THEY`RE AVAILABLE
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVERYWHERE XCPT ALLEGANY CO HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A SVR TSTM WTCH
UNTIL 10 PM.
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES OVR 90 AT 9AM - THIS IS MUCH MORE
REMINISCENT OF MY LONG AGO DAYS IN THE DESERT SW THAN THE MID
ATLC. HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE ALONG AND S OF
THE PTMC. BUT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY - 11Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT STRETCHNG ACROSS SRN NJ ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN BACK TO
CENTRAL MO. HIGH PRES OVR NRN MN HV DROPPED TEMPS BACK INTO THE
60S IN THE UPR MIDWEST. IN FURTHER GOOD NEWS...WHILE OUR HOURLY
ROUNDUP HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF GRTR THAN 90 AT VIRTUALLY ALL OB
SITES...THE PHL OFFICE`S HRLY ROUNDUP ONLY HAS 90+ HEAT INDICES IN
THE SRN PART OF THEIR AREA. HENCE SLTLY MORE COMFORTABLE AIR IS COMING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA RMNS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS..W/ WIND/HAIL BEING THE THREATS. W/ THE FNT ENTERING NRN MD
IN THE MRNG THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR TEMPERING THE SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. ATTM THE RGNL RDR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES...AND HRRR DEPICTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
BUT W/ THE ATMOSPHERE AS JUICED AS IT IS - 12Z IAD SNDG HAS OVR
4600 J/KG...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD EXPLODE QUICKLY. LWR SRN
MD/CENTRAL SHEN VLLY COULD BE THE PRIME SPOTS EARLY THIS AFTN.
TNGT...CDFNT SHUD CONT SLOW SWD PROGRESSION...MOVING INTO CNTRL
THEN SRN VA BY 6Z. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONT OVNGT...ALTHOUGH SVR
RISK DECREASES WITH TIME. MINIMA WILL BE REGULATED BY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...SO MOST AREAS WILL HOLD AOA 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END SCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS MOST LOCALES...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...EACH SERVING TO FOCUS PRECIP. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...HELPING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SVR TSTM WTCH IS IN EFFECT AT ALL TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DVLP AND MOVE WWD ACRS MID-ATLC AS CD FNT
SAGS SWD. SVR STORMS PSBL...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS. IN ANY
TSTM...BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE XPCD. SCATTERED ACTVITY CUD CONT TNGT...BUT PROBS LESS THAN
LIKELY. NLY FLOW PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD EARLY ON MONDAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCHO
TERMINAL SITE.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SVR TSTM WTCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL BCM NLY THIS MRNG. SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE NEAR
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...AND PSBLY CONT OVNGT. STRONG WINDS PSBL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS TNGT BEHIND
CDFNT...BUT LIKELY BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY...JULY 7...AT DCA
AND BWI...AND TIED AT IAD.
AT DCA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 105 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 102 IN 2010. THIS TEMPERATURE TIES
THE SECOND WARMEST TEMEPRATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE
ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURE WAS OBSERVED 20 JULY 1930 AND 6 AUGUST
1918...WHEN 106 DEGREES WAS REALIZED.
DCA HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82...WHICH BREAKS THE HIGH DAILY
MINIMUM RECORD OR 80F...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. IN ADDITION...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST ALL-TIME AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE OLD RECORD WAS 93
DEGREES...SET ON 22 AND 23 JULY 2011...AND 6 JULY 1999.
AT BWI...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 104 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 101 IN 2010.
AT IAD...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 101 DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE DAILY
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1988 AND 2010. THE MIN
TEMPERATURE WAS 75 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD HIGH DAILY MINIMUM OF
73 DEGREES SET IN 2010.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY AGAIN BE APPROACHED TODAY...BELOW ARE THE
DETAILS...
DAILY MAXIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 100 1993 97F
BWI SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
IAD SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
DAILY MINIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 80 2010 83F
BWI SUN JUL 8 79 1986 79F
IAD SUN JUL 8 78 2010 78F
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ009-011-013-
014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>039-
050>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE FROM OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AND
THE MD LWR EASTERN SHORE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S TO LWR 100S
TDY (REFER TO RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 6OS TO LWR 70S DURING PEAK HEATING WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 72-73
MAY REACH THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK...BUT THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
AND LACK OF AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TDY...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE BY EVENG AS THE MAIN FRNT NEARS THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS RUC AND
NAM ARE BOTH PROGGING VERY STEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2" BY EVENG. THE FRNT STALLS AS
IT DROPS INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVRNGT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MON AND TUE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MON...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE FA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF AN UPR-LVL
JET STREAK. TSECTIONS SHOW INCREASES IN RH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 40-60% POPS GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRNT
AND TIMING OF THE S/W`S WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. SPC ALSO HAS THESE AREAS IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SVR WX MON. BIGGEST THREATS AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MON...MID 80S
TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS WED-THU
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE LWR MS VALLEY...BRINGING A FAIRLY
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES AND CAROLINAS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-THU WILL BE
BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CWA-WIDE. CAN`T RULE
OUT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME SO HAVE AT LEAST A 30% POP
THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHER POPS 40-50% DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BOTH
WED AND THU OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD BEEN ALTHOUGH EXACT SETUP OF SFC FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CARRY 30-40% POPS FRI/SAT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID- UPPER 80S FRI-SAT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO/GENLY 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 18Z THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
VA JUST WEST OF KRIC. THE COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT IN THE
EXPANDING CU FIELD AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KSBY AND KRIC
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TSTMS FROM 21Z THROUGH
05Z. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FURTHER SE TO KPHF AND KORF AFTER 23Z.GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VSBY TO 1SM AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW
THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT (EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG). THE FRONT WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW MONDAY CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3KFT BY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUSR ABV VFR.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...FINALLY SETTLING OVER
NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE INTERIM. ALSO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN
PRELIMINARY OR TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS. THIS MAKES DETAILS IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE/E OVER NRN PORTIONS SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HINTS AT A SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
FORECAST/RECORD
---------------
RIC 102/102 (1993)
ORF 98/100 (1993)
SBY 96/100 (1993)
ECG 98/101 (1987)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JO
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPC HAS STATED THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT MUCH OF THE CWA
WL BE PLACED IN A SVR TSTM WTCH. WE ARE LAUNCHING AN 18Z BALLOON IN
SUPPORT OF THAT.
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES OVR 90 AT 9AM - THIS IS MUCH MORE
REMINISCENT OF MY LONG AGO DAYS IN THE DESERT SW THAN THE MID
ATLC. HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE ALONG AND S OF
THE PTMC. BUT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY - 11Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT STRETCHNG ACROSS SRN NJ ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN BACK TO
CENTRAL MO. HIGH PRES OVR NRN MN HV DROPPED TEMPS BACK INTO THE
60S IN THE UPR MIDWEST. IN FURTHER GOOD NEWS...WHILE OUR HOURLY
ROUNDUP HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF GRTR THAN 90 AT VIRTUALLY ALL OB
SITES...THE PHL OFFICE`S HRLY ROUNDUP ONLY HAS 90+ HEAT INDICES IN
THE SRN PART OF THEIR AREA. HENCE SLTLY MORE COMFORTABLE AIR IS COMING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA RMNS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS..W/ WIND/HAIL BEING THE THREATS. W/ THE FNT ENTERING NRN MD
IN THE MRNG THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR TEMPERING THE SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. ATTM THE RGNL RDR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES...AND HRRR DEPICTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
BUT W/ THE ATMOSPHERE AS JUICED AS IT IS - 12Z IAD SNDG HAS OVR
4600 J/KG...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD EXPLODE QUICKLY. LWR SRN
MD/CENTRAL SHEN VLLY COULD BE THE PRIME SPOTS EARLY THIS AFTN.
TNGT...CDFNT SHUD CONT SLOW SWD PROGRESSION...MOVING INTO CNTRL
THEN SRN VA BY 6Z. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONT OVNGT...ALTHOUGH SVR
RISK DECREASES WITH TIME. MINIMA WILL BE REGULATED BY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...SO MOST AREAS WILL HOLD AOA 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END SCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS MOST LOCALES...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...EACH SERVING TO FOCUS PRECIP. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...HELPING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DVLP AND MOVE WWD ACRS MID-ATLC AS CD FNT
SAGS SWD. SVR STORMS PSBL...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS. IN ANY
TSTM...BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE XPCD. SCATTERED ACTVITY CUD CONT TNGT...BUT PROBS LESS THAN
LIKELY. NLY FLOW PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD EARLY ON MONDAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCHO
TERMINAL SITE.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BCM NLY THIS MRNG. SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE NEAR
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...AND PSBLY CONT OVNGT. STRONG WINDS PSBL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS TNGT BEHIND
CDFNT...BUT LIKELY BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY...JULY 7...AT DCA
AND BWI...AND TIED AT IAD.
AT DCA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 105 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 102 IN 2010. THIS TEMPERATURE TIES
THE SECOND WARMEST TEMEPRATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE
ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURE WAS OBSERVED 20 JULY 1930 AND 6 AUGUST
1918...WHEN 106 DEGREES WAS REALIZED.
DCA HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82...WHICH BREAKS THE HIGH DAILY
MINIMUM RECORD OR 80F...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. IN ADDITION...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST ALL-TIME AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE OLD RECORD WAS 93
DEGREES...SET ON 22 AND 23 JULY 2011...AND 6 JULY 1999.
AT BWI...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 104 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 101 IN 2010.
AT IAD...THE MAX TEMPERATURE WAS 101 DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE DAILY
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1988 AND 2010. THE MIN
TEMPERATURE WAS 75 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD HIGH DAILY MINIMUM OF
73 DEGREES SET IN 2010.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY AGAIN BE APPROACHED TODAY...BELOW ARE THE
DETAILS...
DAILY MAXIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 100 1993 97F
BWI SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
IAD SUN JUL 8 100 1993 96F
DAILY MINIMA
SITE.....DATE....RECORD...YEAR...FORECAST
DCA SUN JUL 8 80 2010 83F
BWI SUN JUL 8 79 1986 79F
IAD SUN JUL 8 78 2010 78F
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ009-011-013-
014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>039-
050>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...SBK/NWL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS ABOVE 30 PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL CWA STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECISION WAS A RESULT OF THREE FACTORS.
FIRST...THE 12Z INL SOUNDING SHOWS A MUCH SMOOTHER WARM LAYER ALOFT
THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE CAPE WITH LESS INHIBITION ALOFT IN THIS CASE. SECOND...A
LONE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING AND HAS
RECENTLY KICKED OFF A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS TREND ERASES SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR. LASTLY...RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING
BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DESPITE DRY AIR ALOFT AS THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING ASSIST WITH
DESTABILIZATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NRN QUEBEC AND RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING WNW FLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED OVER NRN
MN THUNDERSTORM HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR CYPL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS
WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK. AT THE SFC... A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRES GRADIENT WAS
WEAK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SUNSHINE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE FCST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A 700-600 MB INVERSION AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. 0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 40 KT...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FT...AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1K J/KG WOULD PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND SREF HAVE INDICATED
BEST PCPN CHANCE THROUGH NW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI...ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MUCAPE VALUES
IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 12Z MON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER
FAR ERN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SCENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE N INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA UNDER NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE WRN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
PUTS THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA UNTIL IT SHIFTS E ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO JUST S OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUE...AND WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WED...BRINGING MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON. THE SLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT SAT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH THE NLY FLOW INTO WE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH WED. THEN FOR THU ON EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST UPPER
MI BY SAT. I HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST.
PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE FOR MON AFTERNOON...DURING
PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
W. SIMILAR SITUATION ON BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A BIT
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. OVERALL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN PRECIP FORECAST GIVEN TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH NW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIURNAL CUMULUS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...AND ARE A SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PLACED A MENTION
OF VCSH FOR SAW AS COVERAGE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AT ALL SITES BEFORE REAPPEARING MONDAY MORNING. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AT SAW. IWD AND CMX SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BRINGING LAKE-COOLED AIR ONSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCT-BKN060 WILL
BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY ONE TAF SITE SEEING PRECIPITATION. IF IT DOES RAIN...IT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS WNW 8-10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING
16 KNOTS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTH THIS EVENING AND NNE ON
MONDAY.
KMSP...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
22Z AND 01Z. NW WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING 16
KNOTS. WINDS TURING MORE 350-360 BY EVENING WITH SPEEDS LOWERING
TO 4-6 KNOTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NNW WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
OVERALL...THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...AS JUST A FEW LIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST IS THE VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW 60S...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE RECENT STRING OF DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT HOT STRETCH...WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DIGS. THIS SETUP MEANS WE`LL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST.
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MID-HIGH
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED RETURNS... ANY PCPN IS REMAINING WELL ALOFT AT THIS POINT.
THESE CLOUDS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
ONE SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO... WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER
WEAKNESS IS ALSO APPARENT IN NORTH DAKOTA... AND THIS SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND
THESE FEATURES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS CAM RUNS
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION AS THE AREA OF WEAK
FORCING AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ANY ACTIVITY WHICH MANAGES
TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED... BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW POPS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE... THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE
MORNING... LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY... AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS... WITH VERY SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS STRETCH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST...MEANING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 588
HEIGHTS AT 500MB LOOK TO RETURN BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPS OVER 20 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ACROSS SERN
COLO/WRN KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR. SATELITTE
SHOWS THE BEST SFC FOCUS DOWN THAT WAY WITH THE CU FIELD STREAMING WESTWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO SWRN NEB WHICH SHOULD GREATLY
STABILIZE THE ATM. STILL...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE FCST
HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA INDICATED SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THE 3KM AGL LEVEL FROM THE WSR-88D RADAR WIND PROFILES
SHOWED A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL END OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...THE SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE WEST...UPPER FLOW OVER
NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORES NORTHERLY. THEN WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA.
THE FIRST OF THE WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE IS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GOOD MONSOON MOISTURE RESIDES OVER NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS/SW
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SW
OF THE KLBF TERMINAL HOWEVER DID TEMPO -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DECENT
LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE KLBF TAF. FURTHER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOME ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE RIVER STAGE AT NORTH PLATTE JUST BELOW FLOOD AND LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN
COUNTY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
EARLY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT BEFORE DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WAS SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGAN TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT RANGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESCEND ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME
INCREASED LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A MORE DEVELOPED REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE FIRST FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
ALTHOUGH THE 4 KM WRF IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD WITH THE QPF ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS AROUND. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH QPF
GENERATED ACROSS NEBRASKA SLIDING SOUTH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...EVEN
WITH GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
LIKELY ALTHOUGH CHANCES POPS ARE MENTIONED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD...AS DOES
THE SURFACE HIGH. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE NAM LAGS A BIT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY USING BOIVERIFY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...AND ITS POSSIBLE
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT EVEN BE LOWER. EVEN
STILL...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE 12Z GFS PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLATED
LOW QPF SPOTS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. OVERALL...OUR
AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...TO 89 TO 94
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT AND HAS A LITTLE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THUS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM HONESTLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
ADDING THESE SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING RAIN IS SO LOW AND AM WORRIED ABOUT GIVING FALSE HOPE TO AREA
FARMERS. IF IT DOES RAIN IT SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOP OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE
END...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECWMF IS DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE DAY
SUNDAY WHEN IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS
AGAIN SEEMS TO GIVE TOO MUCH FALSE HOPE OF RAIN WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF LOW END QPF. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TOO
FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAIN A FEW CONCERNS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST...AND THEREFORE
SKIES ARE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND CLOUD BASES LIFTING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SOME CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE MODEL INDICATES LOWERED
CEILINGS YET AGAIN THIS EVENING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. DECIDED TO
LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...GIVEN ONLY ONE MODEL
SUGGESTION...BUT SHOULD BE MONITORED AND MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER ON
DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE WEST
SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO TO THE REGION TUESDAY...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...AND REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1056 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE FOR A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION (7
C AT CWMW) ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR SHOWING A COUPLE SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT POP NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TEXT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IT WILL BE DRIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 MPH IN OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A BRIEF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRECEDING THIS FEATURE IT MIGHT BE HARD TO
REALIZE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS MOST
REASONABLE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...DESPITE SOME MINOR GFS/EURO DIFFERENCES HERE AND THERE.
OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS SOLUTION OF DROPPING A SECONDARY AND
SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION ON WED
WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS...PREFERRING TO KEEP THINGS DRY PER
CONSISTENT 00Z EURO IDEA. THIS PLAYS WELL WITH INHERENT GFS MODEL
BIASES OF PUSHING COOL AIR SURGES TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE LONGER
TERM TIME FRAMES. BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HERE AND THERE
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH MEAN GFS/EURO 18-00Z
925 MB BLENDED THERMAL PROGS. INDEED...IF YOU BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS THINGS MAY TREND HOT AGAIN TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND
BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST OFFERED A CONSERVATIVE WARMING
TREND OF 1-3 DEG EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH GREAT MID-
SUMMER WX EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...SOME AREAS OF LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING
FEATURE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS SUBSIDE WITH CLEAR SKIES...CREATING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT. DRYER CONDITIONS SEEN WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL CAUSE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISOLATED TO PATCHY
AT BEST. WIND PROFILE WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
FAVORABLE SITES FOR LIFR FG WILL BE KMPV AND KSLK STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DENSEST FG EXPECTED AROUND 08Z/09Z THROUGH
SUNRISE. MONDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NW AT 7-12 KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. PATCHY IFR DUE TO BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. TUESDAY WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDER STRIKE CONTINUE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST IN A NARROW BAND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES EAST WITH NORTHERN
ROCKIES RIDGE STILL BUILDING. ADJUSTED DIURNAL TRENDS SOME BUT
TEMPERATURES AND SKY FAIRLY CLOSE TO TREND.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EXTENDING
FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ND NEAR KISN OTHERWISE FOR NOW JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HW
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE ON
MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF OF 445 PM EDT...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND A BLEND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN USED FOR POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS YIELDS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE NEAR THE TN LINE IN A FEW HOURS...WITH SCT CONVECTION
WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NRN UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAMP UP OVER THE CENTRAL
SMOKIES AND INTO THE ESCARPMENT. WE JUST ISSUED A COUPLE OF SVR TS
WARNINGS DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...BUT THE CELLS HAVE BEEN DYING
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. CU CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWFA
WITH A FEW CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
I AM EXPECTING THAT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON AND THE CURRENT STORMS PUT DOWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
COULD IN TURN PRODUCE MORE TS. I KEEP A SOLID TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSRA OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA THRU TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS STILL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL.
ON MONDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL OCCUR WRT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE STEEP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE VERY BROAD
UPPER TROF HOLDING OVER EASTERN CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SFC
BNDY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. I RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC
MTS BY 18Z WITH A SOLID CHANCE ELSEWHERE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES...IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK
S TUE-WED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO IT AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU THE UPPER FLOW. THE ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY
POPS CWA-WIDE. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME WITH COOLING BUT
SOLID CHC POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...
SHWRS IN THE AREA AND LOWER THICKNESS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE DOMINATED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE W WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE SETTLED OVER THE AREA. LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCT SHWRS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVG. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING W INTO THE REGION ON SUN WHICH WOULD PUT
THE AREA BACK IN THE USUAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW AVG NEXT
SUN AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISBY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR TSRA WITH BKN CB. EXACT TIMING/ONSET OF TSRA IS TOUGH TO
CALL...BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DOES GET GOING...IT SHOULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM
THE SW BECOMING MORE NWLY TOMORROW MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH VCTS FOR THE
FIRST 9 HRS OF THE PERIOD AND PROB30 FOR TSRA WITH CB LATER
TOMORROW. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST OVER KAVL IF THEY GET MUCH
PRECIP.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A TROUGH.
AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
AVL
JULY 8TH 96 IN 1988
JULY 9TH 93 IN 1986
GSP
JULY 8TH 101 IN 1986
JULY 9TH 100 IN 1993
CLT
JULY 8TH 101 IN 2010
JULY 9TH 101 IN 1986
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW.
EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE RISING SUN
SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING OF THIS IN ZFP PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST IS PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING ISO THUNDERSHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WEAK WAVE AND WIND
SHIFT LINE MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HRRR ALSO SHOWING SOME
ISO DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DESPITE THE STAGNANT PATTERN...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE BIGGEST
ISSUE IN THE FORECAST. FOR TODAY THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK
LL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET
A COUPLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
ONCE WE LOSE DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT THE REST OF TONIGHT TO BE
DRY. THEN WE TURN TOWARD MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE GFS
TROPOPAUSE MAPS...SHOULD TRACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AND
THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE A DECENT H7 THETAE RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE SREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PCPN ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LACK OF DECENT LL FEATURE AND STILL LIMITED
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PCPN. SO FOR
NOW AM GOING WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WE BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED. THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...MAINLY ON TIMING.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE TROF KICKING UP A
LLJ AND SOME INSTABILITY BY WED NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF
ANY ACTIVITY UNTIL THURSDAY. LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WED NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE ALLBLEND. AS THE LEE SIDE TROF HOLDS
STEADY AND THEN TRAVERSES THROUGH THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GFS KEEPING A VERY ACTIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN AND
THE ECMWF BECOMING QUIETER UNDER A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE. DUE TO
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND A SFC
BOUNDARY DROPPING SWD OUT OF ND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS OVER NERN SD BETWEEN 21-03 UTC.
ALTHOUGH KABR/KATY COULD SEE A STORM...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HOVER OVER...OR NEAR KPIR BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE
AOA 8K FEET AGL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT KABR LATE TONIGHT...DUE
TO FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR RADIATION FOG. LIKE LAST NIGHT...VSBYS
COULD DROP LOWER FOR A TIME BUT WILL NOT LOWER VSBYS FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
251 PM PDT Sun Jul 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually hot temperatures will continue over the region through
Monday...with only minor relief afterward as high temperatures
remain above average for the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms
will be common tonight through Monday night over much of the area.
More thunderstorms are possible mainly over mountains through
much of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge has reached its full amplitude over the
Inland NW this afternoon and the result has been the hottest day
the region has seen for quite sometime. The heat has combined with
dewpoints in the 50s resulting in some impressive CAPE values
across the region. The most favorable CAPEs will be found across
the southeast corner of WA into the southern ID Panhandle this
evening...as the RUC and NAM are showing values ranging from
1000-1500 j/kg with only weak convective capping in place. Whether
or not heating over the higher terrain can overcome this cap isn`t
certain. The more likely scenario is the convection firing over EC
Oregon and C Idaho will drift ENE during the evening...impacting
the SE corner of our forecast area. The other location which could
see convection fire this evening would be along the
Cascades...where CAPE values are also running above 1000 j/kg. CIN
or convective caps are even stronger in along the crest so dirunal
heating may not be enough to trigger any storms. Seems better
chances in the Cascades will be tied to the shortwave trough
currently moving northward through central Oregon. The latest HRRR
suggests this round of thunderstorms will begin by late evening
and gradually spread east-northeast overnight.
Monday through Wednesday...The active thunderstorm pattern will
continue Monday with a continued moist southerly flow aloft over
a hot and unstable air mass. NAM and GFS models both indicate
another short wave disturbance entering the region from the south
late Monday...with impressive dynamic support compliments of a
mutually supporting jet couplet focusing strong upper level
divergence this time over the eastern half of the forecast area
mainly Monday evening...but the air mass will remain so unstable
that any subtle triggering mechanism will be sufficient to
generate a storm just about anywhere in the forecast area during
the day Monday as well. Heavy precipitable water values in excess
of 1 inch will fuel this convection...but the low level air mass
will remain quite dry with soundings indicating an inverted "V"
structure. This will promote gusty winds radiating outward from
initial thunderstorms forming over northeast Oregon or the Blues
Monday afternoon. Gust fronts from these storms will likely
trigger further cells over the eastern basin and Idaho Panhandle
through the evening hours. Farther west in the deep basin and
Cascades thunderstorm coverage will probably be less dense...but
still active. The transiting short wave will cause the flow aloft
to become more southwesterly and shift the low level thermal ridge
eastward on Tuesday. This will bring a marginal moderation in the
hot weather on Tuesday but still very warm and certainly well
above average. The thunderstorm threat on Tuesday will follow the
850mb Thermal axis eastward and mainly impact the Idaho Panhandle.
On Wednesday a weak post-wave upper level ridge will build over
the region and allow High temperatures to bump back up a couple
degrees under the re-establishing thermal trough and with a drier
air mass promoting a more efficient heating of the low level
layer. A small residual thunderstorm threat will remain Wednesday
mainly over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle. /Fugazzi
Wednesday night through Sunday...The ridge of high pressure will
hold strong for one more day before starting to breakdown due to the
presence of an approaching Pacific trough. Wednesday night and
Thursday will be mostly dry with valley high temperatures in the
90s. By Thursday night the trough will be near the PacNW coast,
ushering in moisture on southwest flow. Models are coming into
better agreement in the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. While
there are still considerable differences in the track of the low
pressure center, it appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have settled
on Friday for the trough to come inland. PoPs have been raised above
climo for much of the forecast area for the end of the workweek with
the focus remaining on the higher terrain. The moisture tap does not
look particularly impressive but it is forecast to be 120 to 180
percent of normal. The southeast zones could also gain the benefit of
monsoonal moisture surging up from the south. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the trough passage. For the weekend,
model solutions diverge quite a bit. The forecast trends toward the
EC, which shows cooler and drier conditions in northwest flow. The
GFS has a closed low settling over the region. This is a less likely
scenario, but not totally out of the realm of possibilities. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms still expected to arrive late this evening and continue
through Monday. The thunderstorms will likely produce abundant
lightning strikes and based on the high cloud bases could produce
good wind gust potential as well. The one problem is the storms
could also produce a decent amount of rain per preciptable water
values nearly double the seasonal normals. Nonetheless it won`t
take much to get a fire started in the finer fuels across the
Cascade Valleys and Columbia Basin per input from the land
agencies. Based on additional fuel intelligence...we also decided
to include the Methow and Okanogan Valleys in the red flag
warning. Thunderstorm chances will begin to wane during the late
Monday afternoon near the Cascades as a weak cold front pushes
through. This results in an increase of northwest
winds...particularly in the Kittitas Valley which could exacerbate
any fires which start earlier in the day. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure over the region will promote
VFR conditions at TAF sites, with light winds. Elevated
instability and weak impulses riding up the west side of the ridge
of high pressure will bring some mid and high clouds, with some CU
around the mountains. A few afternoon -shra/-tsra are possible
around the mtns. as well, possibly in the vcnty of KLWS/KPUW this
afternoon. A more organized upper disturbance will begin to
approach tonight into Monday morning, thickening clouds and
bringing higher -shra/-tsra chances toward the Cascades and
Columbia Basin...including near KEAT/KMWH...as well as lingering
near KPUW/KLWS. The best chance of measurable precipitation will
be closer to the Cascades. VFR conditions expected at all TAF
sites outside of thunderstorm cores. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 97 67 91 64 92 / 10 20 50 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 97 63 89 60 89 / 10 20 50 20 20 10
Pullman 61 94 60 89 57 90 / 10 30 50 20 10 10
Lewiston 72 102 69 99 67 100 / 20 30 50 20 10 20
Colville 57 100 60 94 58 91 / 10 20 50 30 10 10
Sandpoint 55 95 59 87 57 87 / 10 20 60 30 20 20
Kellogg 61 96 60 88 57 89 / 20 20 50 30 30 20
Moses Lake 69 100 67 99 63 98 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
Wenatchee 72 99 68 96 65 97 / 30 30 20 10 0 0
Omak 65 100 63 98 61 96 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday
for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East
Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
234 PM PDT Sun Jul 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually hot temperatures will continue over the region through
Monday...with only minor relief afterward as high temperatures
remain above average for the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms
will be common tonight through Monday night over much of the area.
More thunderstorms are possible mainly over mountains through
much of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge has reached its full amplitude over the
Inland NW this afternoon and the result has been the hottest day
the region has seen for quite sometime. The heat has combined with
dewpoints in the 50s resulting in some impressive CAPE values
across the region. The most favorable CAPEs will be found across
the southeast corner of WA into the southern ID Panhandle this
evening...as the RUC and NAM are showing values ranging from
1000-1500 j/kg with only weak convective capping in place. Whether
or not heating over the higher terrain can overcome this cap isn`t
certain. The more likely scenario is the convection firing over EC
Oregon and C Idaho will drift ENE during the evening...impacting
the SE corner of our forecast area. The other location which could
see convection fire this evening would be along the
Cascades...where CAPE values are also running above 1000 j/kg. CIN
or convective caps are even stronger in along the crest so diurnal
heating may not be enough to trigger any storms. Seems better
chances in the Cascades will be tied to the shortwave trough
currently moving northward through central Oregon. The latest HRRR
suggests this round of thunderstorms will begin by late evening
and gradually spread east-northeast overnight. fx
Monday through Wednesday...The active thunderstorm pattern will
continue Monday with a continued moist southerly flow aloft over
a hot and unstable air mass. NAM and GFS models both indicate
another short wave disturbance entering the region from the south
late Monday...with impressive dynamic support compliments of a
mutually supporting jet couplet focusing strong upper level
divergence this time over the eastern half of the forecast area
mainly Monday evening...but the air mass will remain so unstable
that any subtle triggering mechanism will be sufficient to
generate a storm just about anywhere in the forecast area during
the day Monday as well. Heavy precipitable watter values in excess
of 1 inch will fuel this convection...but the low level air mass
will remain quite dry with soundings indicating an inverted "V"
structure. This will promote gusty winds radiating outward from
initial thunderstorms forming over northeast Oregon or the Blues
Monday afternoon. Gust fronts from these storms will likely
trigger further cells over the eastern basin and Idaho Panhandle
through the evening hours. Farther west in the deep basin and
Cascades thunderstorm coverage will probably be less dense...but
still active. The transiting short wave will cause the flow aloft
to become more southwesterly and shift the low level thermal ridge
eastward on Tuesday. This will bring a marginal moderation in the
hot weather on Tuesday but still very warm and certainly well
above average. The thunderstorm threat on Tuesday will follow the
850mb Thermal axis eastward and mainly impact the Idaho Panhandle.
On Wednesday a weak post-wave upper level ridge will build over
the region and allow High temperatures to bump back up a couple
degrees under the re-establishing thermal trough and with a drier
air mass promoting a more efficient heating of the low level
layer. A small residual thunderstorm threat will remain Wednesday
mainly over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle. /Fugazzi
Wednesday night through Sunday...The ridge of high pressure will
hold strong for one more day before starting to breakdown due to the
presence of an approaching Pacific trough. Wednesday night and
Thursday will be mostly dry with valley high temperatures in the
90s. By Thursday night the trough will be near the PacNW coast,
ushering in moisture on southwest flow. Models are coming into
better agreement in the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. While
there are still considerable differences in the track of the low
pressure center, it appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have settled
on Friday for the trough to come inland. PoPs have been raised above
climo for much of the forecast area for the end of the workweek with
the focus remaining on the higher terrain. The moisture tap does not
look particularly impressive but it is forecast to be 120 to 180
percent of normal. The southeast zones could also gain the benefit of
monsoonal moisture surging up from the south. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the trough passage. For the weekend,
model solutions diverge quite a bit. The forecast trends toward the
EC, which shows cooler and drier conditions in northwest flow. The
GFS has a closed low settling over the region. This is a less likely
scenario, but not totally out of the realm of possibilities. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms still expected to arrive late this evening and
continue through Monday. The thunderstorms will likely produce
abundant lightning strikes and based on the high cloud bases could
produce good wind gust potential as well. The one problem is the
storms could also produce a decent amount of rain per precipitable
water values nearly double the seasonal normals. Nonetheless it
won`t take much to get a fire started in the finer fuels across
the Cascade Valleys and Columbia Basin per input from the land
agencies. Based on additional fuel intelligence...we also decided
to include the Methow and Okanogan Valleys in the red flag
warning. Thunderstorm chances will begin to wane during the late
Monday afternoon near the Cascades as a weak cold front pushes
through. This results in an increase of northwest
winds...particularly in the Kittitas Valley which could exacerbate
any fires which start earlier in the day. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure over the region will promote
VFR conditions at TAF sites, with light winds. Elevated
instability and weak impulses riding up the west side of the ridge
of high pressure will bring some mid and high clouds, with some CU
around the mountains. A few afternoon -shra/-tsra are possible
around the mtns. as well, possibly in the vcnty of KLWS/KPUW this
afternoon. A more organized upper disturbance will begin to
approach tonight into Monday morning, thickening clouds and
bringing higher -shra/-tsra chances toward the Cascades and
Columbia Basin...including near KEAT/KMWH...as well as lingering
near KPUW/KLWS. The best chance of measurable precipitation will
be closer to the Cascades. VFR conditions expected at all TAF
sites outside of thunderstorm cores. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 97 67 91 64 92 / 10 20 50 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 97 63 89 60 89 / 10 20 50 20 20 10
Pullman 61 94 60 89 57 90 / 10 30 50 20 10 10
Lewiston 72 102 69 99 67 100 / 20 30 50 20 10 20
Colville 57 100 60 94 58 91 / 10 20 50 30 10 10
Sandpoint 55 95 59 87 57 87 / 10 20 60 30 20 20
Kellogg 61 96 60 88 57 89 / 20 20 50 30 30 20
Moses Lake 69 100 67 99 63 98 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
Wenatchee 72 99 68 96 65 97 / 30 30 20 10 0 0
Omak 65 100 63 98 61 96 / 30 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday
for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East
Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$