Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/07/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST WED JUL 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON
TONIGHT. MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECOVERS...THEN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUCSON WWD AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EAST OF TUCSON AT THIS TIME. KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED
MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ ECHOES GENERALLY EAST OF KSAD-KFHU LINE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE TO BE
CENTERED OVER SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AT 0420Z. THIS SYSTEM PROVIDED
BROAD-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NWD TONIGHT.
BASED ON THE 05/00Z NAM AS WELL AS RUC13 AND RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS...
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
SHOULD END AROUND 2-3 AM MST...OR BY DAYBREAK THUR AT THE LATEST.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REST OF TONIGHT FROM
TUCSON WWD...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS. MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON TAP THUR. 05/00Z NAM
LIMITS MEASURABLE PRECIP TO GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES WITH
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PROGGED FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THIS
VERSION OF THE NAM.
UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
WILL DEFER ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS FOR THUR-FRI TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH EXPECTING THE RAIN
CHANCES TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE WEAK TROUGH TO OUR WEST
PUSHES MOISTURE TO THE EAST WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE 1.7 INCH
PW FROM THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING.
AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES TO THE WEST...MODELS DEPICT A RETURN TO
EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FOR A RETURN TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST
BEGINNING SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST OF A KSAD-KFHU LINE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CLOUDS
MOSTLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL THRU THURSDAY MORNING...THEN FEW-BKN CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THURSDAY EVENING OR 06/06Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...2 RECORDS WERE ESTABLISHED AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ON JULY 4. THE RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 0.78 INCH BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.70 INCH SET IN 1921. ALSO...THE HIGH TEMP OF
86 DEGREES IS A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP FOR JULY 4. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR JULY 4 WAS 90 DEGREES SET IN 1962.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS STILL TAPPING MODERATE DEW POINTS IN 50S TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO IN SPITE OF THE MIXING...SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S OUT EAST. SO FAR THIS HAS
KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS. POCKETS OF DRIER AIR HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE AND LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...WITH UPPER 30S AND 40S ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH MOST APPARENT EMBEDDED
WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS UT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WHERE PRECIP WATERS ARE RUNNING THE HIGHEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS SE
CO...SO HAVE NUDGED SOME ISOLATED POPS A TOUCH FARTHER EAST.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR EASTWARD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MORE
HIGH BASED WITH LCLS AROUND H6. HRRR DEVELOPS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR BETWEEN 4-5 PM
WITH AROUND .25 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE SHOULD IT IMPACT THE BURN
SCAR. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE LAYER...STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
ON THE BURN SCAR...AND THESE MODEL PREDICTED AMOUNTS LOOK IN THE
BALL PARK. THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF DIURNALLY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL
HANG ON TO SOME ISOLATED -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BENEATH THE
MONSOON PLUME.
ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO EL PASO COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME RESIDES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...HOWEVER WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO CURRENTLY IN THE 50S...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MORE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE SCENARIO THAT PLAYED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
RAISES CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR AS
THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO LIE UP ACROSS THIS
REGION...THERE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHER FOR THIS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY VERSUS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS SCENARIO GET RESOLVED BY
HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS (WRF...RUC13...HRRR) BEFORE
PULLING THE TRIGGER ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FORECASTING...AND
WILL DEFER THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN AND
NEAR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED
AWARENESS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING AS WE TRANSITION INTO
MOISTER ENVIRONMENT AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE OF A
GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT... FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD OVER THE CWA. THE GFS/NAM12 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DROPPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH MODELS ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWING DEWPOINTS OF MID 50S TO NEAR 60 BEHIND
THE FRONT BY 15Z SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL
QPF MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS A DISTINCT TRIGGER IS HARD TO IDENTIFY
GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DATA. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...AND HARD TO TIME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW PASSING OVERHEAD...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ACROSS THE REGION. 500MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE...AT BEST...
5-10KTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO GET A MORE DETAILED PICTURE OF HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
MAY FALL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE WALDO
CANYON FIRE BURN SCAR.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AVERAGE OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM
RECENT 18-20C READINGS TO THE LOWER TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 8-10C RANGE SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS IS ONLY 87F
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ENDING A LONG RUN OF 90-100+
TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED
OVER THE PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING
CENTERED NEAR UTAH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...I-25
CORRIDOR (INCLUDING THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR.)...AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 500MB BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ADVECT SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO KEEP
AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR OR EASTERN PLAINS. -PJC
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF SITES IN THE 12-24 KT
RANGE THROUGH 02-03Z. VFR CIGS AND GUSTIER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR -TSRA THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO GET
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT KALS. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN VCTS
AT KCOS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 21-22Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT KCOS BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND AT KPUB BY
15Z. -TSRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCOS TAF SITE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST. VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. KALS WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS LOOK LIGHTER IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/81
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET...THOUGH DID BUMP UP TIMING OF -TSRA
FOR THE SE MTS WHERE THEY STARTED FIRING AT AROUND 16Z. SFC DEW
POINTS ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME
DRYING ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO BRING PRECIP WATERS DOWN SOME.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
SOUNDINGS STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOME WHICH MAY MITIGATE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS. ALSO APPEAR TO BE LACKING A FOCUS
MECHANISM (FRONTAL BOUNDARY...UPSLOPE FLOW...ETC) TO HELP ANCHOR
STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS. 13Z HRRR PRINTS OUT SOME BULLS EYES OF
AROUND .25 OF LIQUID FROM -TSRA IN AND NEAR THE WALDO BURN
SCAR...BUT THESE MOVE FROM RUN-TO-RUN AS EXPECTED. THUS...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT BETTER TODAY...STILL THINK LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ON THE WALDO IS STILL LOW. BY FAR BETTER MOISTURE AND
BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE OUT ALONG THE CONTDVD...SO
THOSE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...KCOS COULD
SEE TS IN THE VCNTY AFTER 21Z...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE 18Z
TAFS. KALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINAL
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF VFR CIGS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE...THOUGH STRONGER GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR -TSRA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE PLAINS ON MONDAY BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST AT KCOS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE -TSRA CHANCES FOR FRI AFTERNOON
FOR THE KCOS TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..BREEZY TODAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD...
CURRENTLY...
IN THE CWA...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE GREATER LA
JUNTA AREA AND ALONG THE CONTDVD. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP WAS OVER NE
CO AND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS NOTED OVER SW CO. SFC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS DWPTS WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER MTN LOCATIONS WHERE THEY
WERE IN THE 40S. IT WAS STILL MILD OVER THE PLAINS WITH 80S OBSERVED
AT 2 AM AT KLHX AND KLAA. TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MTNS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE RATHER COOL WITH LOWER/MID 40S AT A
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS.
TODAY...
SIMULATIONS SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTDVD AND HAVE DRAWN HIGHEST POPS THIS LOCATION. OVER THE PLAINS
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING ON THE PLAINS
TODAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED ON THE PLAINS...AND
HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE PLAINS DRY. THE MTNS ADJACENT TO THE
PLAINS...INCLUDING THE WALDO CANYON BURN AREA...WILL ONLY SEE ISOLD
SHOWERS TODAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...ALTHOUGH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL HELP TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT. I HAVE PUEBLO REACHING 100
AGAIN...BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY
THIS HAPPENS FOR AWHILE (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW).
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY...METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
HIGH MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON (MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15% ALL REGIONS).
TONIGHT...
SHORT WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL MOVE PAST THE LONGITUDE OF THE
REGION...AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION TO SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE
OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ONLY LOCATIONS
WHICH MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD. /34
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS ZONAL
FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDING A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH STALLS NEAR
THE PALMER DVD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT...COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND PALMER DVD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING OWNING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION TO HELP PUSH
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME TO BE IN PLACE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
KEEPING WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AREA WIDE. STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS...SPREADING OUT AND
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE FAR SE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WALDO CANYON AND OTHER BURN SCARS
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...WITH MOISTURE PLUME BEING
PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. STILL WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH
WILL BECOME MORE HIGH BASED WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS AWAY
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN PLAINS...OWNING TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -MW
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY (KCOS...KPUB AND KALS). THUNDER
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AND I PLAN TO NOT
MENTION THUNDER AT KCOS OR KPUB DURING THE NEXT 24H. WILL HAVE VCTS
AT KALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KPUB...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
(~15G28KT).
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/81
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2012
.AVIATION...STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO WIND DOWN BY 09Z...WITH
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY 12Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH STEERING
CURRENTS LOOKING UNFAVORABLE TO CARRY STORMS VERY FAR EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS. FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT
KALS...WITH LOWER CHANCES KCOS/KPUB. STILL A THREAT OF OUTFLOW
WINDS GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS AT ALL SITES FROM 22Z-02Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
SFC DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO
COUNTY...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS TELLER COUNTY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SPARSE...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE VALUES UNDER
100 J/KG FOR THIS REGION. DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
QUANDARY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. SUCCESSIVE HIGH RES MODEL
RUNS...SUCH AS HRRR...AND RUC13 ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SWITCH
AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...AND
MODELS DO BRING SOME LOWER 40 DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION BY 01-02Z (7-8 PM). BUT BY THIS TIME...PEAK HEATING IS LOST
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH. HUNTING AROUND IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME FOR ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO HELP ENHANCE -TSRA
COVERAGE...MOST OBVIOUS WAVE IS BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ...AND IS
EASIEST TO TRACK IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5PV SURFACE...OR
IN THE UPPER LEVEL POT VORT FIELDS. THIS WAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS AZ/UT FOR TOMORROW. COULD BE A WEAK FEATURE BACK ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS REGION ENHANCING TSRA COVERAGE ACROSS SW CO...BUT HARD
TO SAY FOR CERTAIN. BOTTOM LINE IS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...THINK THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS DECREASED...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND POTENTIAL HAS
INCREASED. WILL WATCH LATEST RADAR TRENDS TOWARDS THE PACKAGE
ISSUANCE...AND WILL TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR IF TRENDS CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE.
MEANWHILE...WITH PRECIP WATERS OUT WEST RUNNING UP TO 140 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR
LOCALIZED RUN-OFF PROBLEMS.
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SO WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER POPS
EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR UNTIL 06Z...THEN TAPER IT BACK DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OUT WEST
UNDER THE MONSOON PLUME.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD BACK IN ACROSS ALL OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...PUSHING BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG LEADING EDGE OF PV LOBE...CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS WRN TX...WHICH DECREASES PRECIP WATERS SOME FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND SE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...THOUGH WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
AFTERNOON WINDS...RHS MAY BE APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW IT
REMAINS A LITTLE TOO MOIST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
MEANWHILE...MTN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OUT THAT WAY. -KT
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD H5 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT GRADUALLY RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF HOLDING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ECMWF ALSO NOT AS FAST BRINGING SURFACE FRONT INTO THE CWA
AND FRONT APPEARS TO WOBBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING WELL SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL ON THE PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY WITH THIS
SOLUTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FOR THIS FORECAST...I HAVE CUT BACK POPS ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WESTWARD.
AFTER THIRTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES IN PUEBLO...WE ARE READY FOR A BREAK IN THE VERY WARM TEMPS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP BRING THAT STREAK TO AN END. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100 ON THE PLAINS...MID 80S IN THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S
ON THE PLAINS...AND 50S AND 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
THE WALDO CANYON BURN AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WHEN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SETS UP AT THE
SURFACE COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE...PERHAPS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 40
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE -TSRA AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR NOW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BE GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS IN THE 20-40 KT RANGE IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN GET GOING. KALS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA HITTING THE TAF SITE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL UPDATE
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. -TSRA CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
02Z...THOUGH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MTS AND FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE KALS TAF SITE...THOUGH LOOKS LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KPUB AND
KCOS TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10/44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENT CLUSTER OF TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE
COLLIER COUNTY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
KAPF. AFTERNOON SHRAS/TSRAS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. BETTER
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD AGAIN BE ALONG THE INTERIOR TO THE
GULF COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST HRRR/WRF/NAM MODEL REACTIVITIES GENERALLY REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AND INDICATE MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE DEVELOPING INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS
THE GULF/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO MERGE. THE HRRR IS THE
MORE BULLISH SOLUTION AND GENERATES SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OVER
THESE AREAS. PROVIDED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...MINUS 8 DEG C AT 500 MB AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE SEA BREEZES MERGING COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATER TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE S FL PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CYCLE REMAINS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING WNW ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SE. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND GENERALLY DAMPENS THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
AND SLIGHT ENHANCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AROUND THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE BAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 78 91 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 40
MIAMI 80 91 80 92 / 10 20 20 50
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 20 30 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
710 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
AWAITING CONVECTION CENTRAL INTERIOR AND W TO WANE AND PLAN
TO UPDATE THE ZFP PACKAGE AT THAT TIME. SOME STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS TOWARD S FLA. AT THIS TIME...SATL WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL FORECASTED ROABS BOTH INDICATE DRIER AIR PRECEDING
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO NEAR S FLA IN 24 HOURS WHICH
MAY QUELL THIS CONVECTION. WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT E COAST
FORECAST BUT A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY PERSIST OVER THE ATLC
AND MAKE IT ONSHORE BUT EXPECT CHANCES TO BE SO LOW THAT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AT THIS TIME...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...(ISSUED 230 PM EDT)
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST HRRR/WRF/NAM MODEL REACTIVITIES GENERALLY REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AND INDICATE MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE DEVELOPING INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS
THE GULF/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO MERGE. THE HRRR IS THE
MORE BULLISH SOLUTION AND GENERATES SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OVER
THESE AREAS. PROVIDED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...MINUS 8 DEG C AT 500 MB AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE SEA BREEZES MERGING COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATER TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE S FL PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CYCLE REMAINS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING WNW ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SE. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND GENERALLY DAMPENS THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
AND SLIGHT ENHANCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AROUND THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE BAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 78 91 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 40
MIAMI 80 91 80 92 / 10 20 20 50
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 20 30 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
657 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POP AND WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
...ESP MCS OVER ERN TN. LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING MCS DOWN INTO NRN COUNTIES AROUND 00-01Z AND
INTO ATL METRO AROUND 02-03Z. SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING IN NORTH
GA. WILL UPDATE HWO AS WELL.
SNELSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS/NAM
AND ECMWF TO BUILD EASTWARD SOME FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION.
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FROM MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAKE IT
AROUND THE EASTERN POINT OF THE RIDGE...LIKE THE PAIR MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WELL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE IN PLACE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ISOLATED.
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY
HIGH...BUT COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
20
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG TERM PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING WEAK
IMPULSES TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. MODELS
AGREE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA...EVENTUALLY
SAGGING SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...SURFACE CAPES GREATER THAN 1500 EACH AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BELIEVE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE AS MODELS
MAY BE OVERDOING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATE LESS CLOUDS UNTIL HEATING KICKS IN EACH DAY AND HAVE
GONE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
ATWELL/17
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 08Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT TO BE IMPACTED
WOULD BE KAHN AND POSSIBLY KMCN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALREADY DEVELOPING IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
02Z...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY AFTER 02Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY
BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 98 72 99 / 60 40 40 30
ATLANTA 75 97 75 96 / 50 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 67 94 67 91 / 70 40 40 40
CARTERSVILLE 68 98 69 98 / 60 40 40 40
COLUMBUS 74 96 75 94 / 50 40 40 30
GAINESVILLE 73 97 73 98 / 60 40 40 40
MACON 74 96 74 96 / 50 40 40 30
ROME 69 98 69 98 / 60 40 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 68 96 69 95 / 50 40 40 30
VIDALIA 76 96 75 96 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1001 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
958 PM CDT
BUMPED UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE CWA...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS EVENING ARE STILL REGISTERING AS WARM AS IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN PLACES AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TONIGHT...WHEREAS LAST
NIGHT WINDS BECAME CALM FOR SOME AREAS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE CONCERNS TO NOTE...MAINLY
REVOLVING AROUND FRONTAL TIMING. THE 18Z AND NOW 00Z NAM CONTINUE
TO COME IN WITH A MID AFTERNOON FROPA...AND THINK THIS MAY BE A
REASONABLE SOLUTION //IF NOT SLOWER// SINCE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE EXTREME HEAT WITHOUT MUCH
CONVECTION/COLD POOLING TO ASSIST. THE 00Z NAM DOES EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ISOLD/SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED...WEAKLY CAPPED DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...EVEN MODEST FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK...BUT MAY BE BETTER OVER NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE AHEAD DOWN THE LAKE.
IF WE DO GET A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THAN 100F AT ORD IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...LEADING TO RECORD BREAKING FOURTH CONSECUTIVE
100 DEGREE DAY FOR CHICAGO. BMD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER
WITH A LAKE BREEZE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST IL. SCT CU HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000+ J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...HOWEVER SUSPECTING THE 100
J/KG OF CIN IS HOLDING CONVECTION BACK. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A SMALL CAP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE IN THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...AND THE LAKE BREEZE IS NOT
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH LIGHT WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD FIRE...BUT BETTING AGAINST IT AND
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT FOR
LOW 80S DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DOWNTOWN.
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT REACH
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH MANY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN SEEING TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES. ONLY COOLER SPOTS
WOULD BE NEAR UGN AND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
TURN ON SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING RELIEF TO THE NEARSHORE
REGIONS FIRST. HOWEVER...EXPECTING LAKE FRONT AREAS TO REACH THEIR
DAYTIME MAX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES TOMORROW
EAST OF I-355...WITH 105 TO 119 EXPECTED IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...TEMPS WILL DROP
SUDDENLY...BUT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS...LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...PROVIDING THE FIRST REFRESHING NIGHT IN A
LONG TIME FOR MANY AREAS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS MOISTURE DISSIPATES AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. WAS NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WE NEED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO CAPE
TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY IS THE END OF THE WITHERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST...THOUGH THE 6 TO 10/8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC SUGGEST VERY WARM CONDITIONS MAY BE IN
STORE AGAIN BEYOND DAY 7. UNFORTUNATELY...NO RELIEF IS IN SIGHT FOR
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH AFTER
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS HEAT WAVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
BLOCKING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE PATTERN VERY SLOW
MOVING...BUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BE
ABLE TO KNOCK DOWN THE EVER PRESENT INTENSE MIDLEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD
COOL ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MERCIFULLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE LAKEFRONT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH
DRIER AND COMFORTABLE...AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE TRYING
TO HINT AT POST FRONTAL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT
INHERITED SLIGHT POPS TO SOUTHERN CWA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNDAY...NO REAL CONCERNS TO SPEAK OF...OTHER THAN CONTINUED
LACK OF RAINFALL...WHICH IS A CONCERN IN THIS WORSENING DROUGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE HIGH LOCKED OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING SYNOPTIC NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTING TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE...WARMEST ON MONDAY AND
THEN LIKELY WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. LIKELY DAILY LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS THE
CONTINUOUS HEAT THIS SUMMER HAS LEFT LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN JULY. DESPITE GFS
WANTING TO OCCASIONALLY PAINT QPF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DROUGHT...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE SUPERIOR AND STABLE ECMWF IN
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* CHANCE FOR TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* WINDS TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOMING GUSTY.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE LAKE BREEZE IS RETREATING AND FALLING APART EARLY THIS
EVENING. SO WINDS WILL SWING BACK TO A WEST OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
AT MDW. THAT GENERAL DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
SOME HAZE. A COOL FRONT WILL CREEP SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...ENHANCED SOME BY THE LAKE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE WIND SHIFT TO NNE AT THOSE TERMINALS
SHOULD OCCUR EARLIER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED GUSTY STORMS DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE OF
THE NATURE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY...IF INDEED THEY CAN DEVELOP. POST
FRONTAL THUNDER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENING AS
UPPER ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT IMPROVES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
LOW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE POINT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL DURING SATURDAY EVE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NNE AT THE
AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NNE WINDS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTER SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKE. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE...WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
707 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER
WITH A LAKE BREEZE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST IL. SCT CU HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000+ J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...HOWEVER SUSPECTING THE 100
J/KG OF CIN IS HOLDING CONVECTION BACK. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A SMALL CAP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE IN THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...AND THE LAKE BREEZE IS NOT
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH LIGHT WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD FIRE...BUT BETTING AGAINST IT AND
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT FOR
LOW 80S DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DOWNTOWN.
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT REACH
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH MANY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN SEEING TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES. ONLY COOLER SPOTS
WOULD BE NEAR UGN AND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
TURN ON SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING RELIEF TO THE NEARSHORE
REGIONS FIRST. HOWEVER...EXPECTING LAKE FRONT AREAS TO REACH THEIR
DAYTIME MAX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES TOMORROW
EAST OF I-355...WITH 105 TO 119 EXPECTED IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...TEMPS WILL DROP
SUDDENLY...BUT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS...LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...PROVIDING THE FIRST REFRESHING NIGHT IN A
LONG TIME FOR MANY AREAS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS MOISTURE DISSIPATES AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. WAS NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WE NEED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO CAPE
TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY IS THE END OF THE WITHERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST...THOUGH THE 6 TO 10/8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC SUGGEST VERY WARM CONDITIONS MAY BE IN
STORE AGAIN BEYOND DAY 7. UNFORTUNATELY...NO RELIEF IS IN SIGHT FOR
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH AFTER
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS HEAT WAVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
BLOCKING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE PATTERN VERY SLOW
MOVING...BUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BE
ABLE TO KNOCK DOWN THE EVER PRESENT INTENSE MIDLEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD
COOL ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MERCIFULLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE LAKEFRONT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH
DRIER AND COMFORTABLE...AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE TRYING
TO HINT AT POST FRONTAL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT
INHERITED SLIGHT POPS TO SOUTHERN CWA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNDAY...NO REAL CONCERNS TO SPEAK OF...OTHER THAN CONTINUED
LACK OF RAINFALL...WHICH IS A CONCERN IN THIS WORSENING DROUGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE HIGH LOCKED OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING SYNOPTIC NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTING TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE...WARMEST ON MONDAY AND
THEN LIKELY WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. LIKELY DAILY LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS THE
CONTINUOUS HEAT THIS SUMMER HAS LEFT LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN JULY. DESPITE GFS
WANTING TO OCCASIONALLY PAINT QPF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DROUGHT...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE SUPERIOR AND STABLE ECMWF IN
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY RETREATING OVER MDW PRIOR TO 01Z TURNING
WINDS BACK TO SW.
* CHANCE FOR TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* WINDS TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOMING GUSTY.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE LAKE BREEZE IS RETREATING AND FALLING APART EARLY THIS
EVENING. SO WINDS WILL SWING BACK TO A WEST OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
AT MDW. THAT GENERAL DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
SOME HAZE. A COOL FRONT WILL CREEP SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...ENHANCED SOME BY THE LAKE FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE WIND SHIFT TO NNE AT THOSE TERMINALS
SHOULD OCCUR EARLIER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED GUSTY STORMS DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE OF
THE NATURE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY...IF INDEED THEY CAN DEVELOP. POST
FRONTAL THUNDER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENING AS
UPPER ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT IMPROVES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
LOW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY RETREATING OVER MDW
PRIOR TO 01Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE POINT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NNE AT THE
AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NNE WINDS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTER SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKE. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE...WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A LLJ RUNNING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. AN 850MB BOUNDARY/FRONT RAN FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE WAS POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN FROM THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA WITH DIURNAL CU AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD WEAK LOWS NEAR KLSE AND KSUX. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CONNECTED THE TWO LOWS AND RAN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO KFSD AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 60S AND SOME 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ABOVE THE LFC SO THERE REALLY IS NO CAP.
THE LACK OF A TRIGGER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK FORCING PER THE RAP MODEL. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TRUE COLD FRONT AND VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX OR MCV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT.
THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. RAP
TRENDS SHOW THE WEAK FORCING GETTING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN CWFA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MCS...LIFT...AND WAA TOOLS ALL SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS THAT MAY APPROACH THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST PARTS OF THE
CWFA. IF NOTHING DEVELOPS BY 6 PM...THEN THE CWFA SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST. THE GENESIS REGION SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA IN THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEAK LLJ. OUTFLOWS FROM
THIS MCS MAY INITIATE NEW CONVECTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE CWFA.
ASSUMING THE MINNESOTA MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST AS EXPECTED
THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT TAKE MOST OF
THE MORNING TO THIN AND DISSIPATE. THESE CLOUDS IN TURN SHOULD
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE BUT MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO OR 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN WITH NO CHANGES. DEW POINTS SHOULD
AGAIN DROP TONIGHT AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE CORN BECOMES
INACTIVE. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
POSSIBLY MID 70S AS THE CORN ACTIVELY EVAPOTRANSPIRATES. THE
RESULTANT HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD BE 105 TO 110. ..08..
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
BREAK IN THE HEAT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ARRIVING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT BRINGING THE RELIEF
UNFORTUNATELY DOESN/T FIGURE TO BRING MUCH IN WAY OF NEEDED RAINFALL
FOR AREA CORN CROPS IN CRITICAL POLLINATION STAGE. MOST OF THE
AREA IS NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PER THE LATEST
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED THIS AM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NGT. FRI NGT
WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WITH VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING ABOVE 75. NOT LIKELY
TO SEE SFC BASED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SAT INTO SAT EVE DUE TO STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION... WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ABSENCE OF
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL COOLING. THUS... ANY PCPN WOULD BE
POST-FRONTAL ROOTED WITH CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR TO ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS
ALSO COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH WITH MONSOONAL CONNECTION
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH LACK OF CONVECTION PRE-FRONTAL THEN LESS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THUS
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF NEEDING TO EXTEND HEAT WARNING THROUGH
SAT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE
90S TO AROUND 100F AND HEAT INDICES 100-110+. 850 MILLIBAR FRONT
OR WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AXIS PASSES SUN INTO SUN EVE TAKING MOISTURE
WITH IT. ASIDE FROM THE WEAK CONVERGENCE HARD PRESSED TO FIND COHERENT
FORCING OR TRIGGER TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED RAIN. GIVEN
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHC DURING THE
ENTIRE PERIOD SAT-SUN.
MON-THU... GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS... AND RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND NORMAL WHICH
COUPLED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TO MAKE FOR NICE AND COMFORTABLE STRETCH
OF WEATHER. PCPN CHCS ARE NOT ZERO AS WE COULD SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES
PASS IN THE FLOW... BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND TIMING/STRENGTH
SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
MCCLURE
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
VFR WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/07 WITH DENSITY ALTITUDES AOA
3KFT 18Z/05-02Z/06 AND AGAIN AFT 16Z/06. THERE IS AN EXTREMELY LOW
CHANCE OF A TSRA OR VCTS AT KDBQ/KCID EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR AFTER 03Z/06. HOWEVER...THIS POSSIBILITY WAS NOT INCLUDED IN
THE 18Z TAFS. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS
TEMPERATURES PLUS/MINUS 1-2 DEGREES COMPARED 17Z YESTERDAY. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY END UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. AS
SUCH THE FCST MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY.
THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING FROM NEAR KFSD
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER WHICH MAY MAINTAIN OR REGENERATE DIURNAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT/BOUNDARY. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR THEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF
THE CWFA. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/07 WITH DENSITY ALTITUDES AOA
3KFT 18Z/05-02Z/06 AND AGAIN AFT 16Z/06. THERE IS AN EXTREMELY LOW
CHANCE OF A TSRA OR VCTS AT KDBQ/KCID EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR AFTER 03Z/06. HOWEVER...THIS POSSIBILITY WAS NOT INCLUDED IN
THE 18Z TAFS. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO KEEP WX RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH 12Z ON THE
6TH. WEAK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE ARE IN A
DECAYING MODE AT THE MOMENT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM
KCID AND KDBQ...THOUGH THEY MAY DRIFT INTO THE VICINITY...AND AND
UPDATE TO TERMINAL FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE NEEDED. FOR
NOW THOUGH...DRY FORECAST WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH ALTOCUMULUS.
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY VERY HIGH AND
HAVE LEFT THESE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
10-12KTS FOR TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70S. SOME INTERESTING THINGS GOING ON OUT THERE TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IOWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...THAT AS OF A
MIDNIGHT ANALYSIS WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. A VERY NICE LOW LEVEL JET HAS FORMED FROM OKLAHOMA UP
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THIS WAS FEEDING AN MCS UP IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT NOW THAT IT HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...IT HAS FALLEN APART. INSTEAD...NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE
INITIATING IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EVEN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 3
AM. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT THIS COULD HAVE
FOCUSED ON...BUT THERE IS A NICE SURGE OF 850MB WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA ACCORDING TO THE SPC RAP MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
THAT IT COULD BE FOCUSED ON.
LE
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND OF COURSE...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
IOWA IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE VERY FAR EAST BEFORE IT
MOVES OUT OF ITS MOISTURE FEED AND DISSIPATES. THE RAP MODEL IS
DEPICTING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND IT SEEMS TO ONLY PULL IT INTO THE
NORTH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT FALLS APART.
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS IN THIS REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN LOWER AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHER MODELS ALSO WANT TO POP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...PERHAPS IN A SIMILAR MODE OF INITIATION. AM NOT TERRIBLY
EXCITED ABOUT THIS AS THE CAP COMES INTO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY AS
MORE HOT DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT 700MB. THUS...HAVE
KEPT POPS TO ISOLATED OR SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS GOING TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EVEN IF IT IS ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOWN OFF WESTERN
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH THE
MIXING AND DRY GROUND STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL GET WELL INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND TO AROUND 100 TODAY. MAY END UP HAVING TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPS IN ACROSS THE NORTH IF THIS CONVECTION ENDS UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A REAL BEAR TO FORECAST LATELY...AND WITH THE
LARGE IMPACT THEY HAVE ON HEAT INDEX VALUES...THEY HAVE BEEN
CRITICAL. TODAY AM USING A LOT OF PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAYS
FORECAST...BUT FEEL THAT WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THIS MAY ACT TO HOLD THEM UP EVEN AS WE GET
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING TODAY. CORN CROP HAS ALSO BEEN ACTING TO
HOLD THEM UP IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WE ARE GETTING FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE MOST RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS EFFECT MAY TAIL OFF SOMEWHAT.
THUS...AM CONTINUING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY AS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 105-110 RANGE FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FAR SOUTH HAS ESCAPED THIS LATELY AS THE
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S...BUT TODAY THE
EXTRA HEAT SHOULD EASE THEM OVER THE 105 MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME.
ALSO...WE ARE ON OUR 3RD DAY OF AT LEAST 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
VALUES...AND THIS IS GOING TO HAVE A DETRIMENTAL AFFECT ON PEOPLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE AREA FOR
NOW...BUT THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE GOING TO BE KEY FOR
DETERMINING WHAT GOES ON TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BETTER MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED OUT WEST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA REGION AGAIN...WHICH WOULD HAVE TO DRIFT EAST INTO OUR AREA
BEFORE DECAYING. IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO GET THIS FAR BEFORE
IT FALLS APART. MIN TEMPS TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LE
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN COOLER WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF JULY
THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN RETURNING HOT WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST. FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WITH THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK BLEAK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HOT AND HUMID TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE A REAL SCORCHER. WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS
ON FRIDAY OF AROUND 100 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT LEAST 110.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OF COURSE THIS ASSUMES
FULL SUNSHINE AND NO CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ANY MCS THAT MAY OCCUR TO OUR
NORTH. ANY CLOUDS WOULD KEEP THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. THE CONSENSUS IS THEN TO START BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND MORE CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE STILL HOT BUT NOT AS BAD AS FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING FROM 90 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 100
FROM HIGHWAY 34 SOUTHWARD. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO
105 RANGE. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF A WARNING FOR
SATURDAY FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVING FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN ERRONEOUSLY
DEPICTING LARGE AREAS OF QPF LATELY AND HAS BEEN IGNORED. BUT BASED
ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING THE ECM IS TOO DRY. THE ECM SUGGESTS
THE FRONT MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE BAD NEWS IS IF YOU MISS OUT ON THIS RAIN OPPORTUNITY THE MODELS
SUGGEST AN EXTENDED DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE MIDWEST WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES. WILL BE MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S...WHICH IS MORE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS STRENGTHENING AGAIN
INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF JULY BUT ALSO REMAINING DRY. THIS
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY WORSEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HAASE
AVIATION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...BUT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS DURING MID DAY HOURS.
ERVIN
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 5...
MOLINE.........105 IN 1936
CEDAR RAPIDS...110 IN 1911
DUBUQUE........104 IN 1911
BURLINGTON.....108 IN 1936
RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 6...
MOLINE.........105 IN 1936
CEDAR RAPIDS...102 IN 1936
DUBUQUE........102 IN 1936
BURLINGTON.....105 IN 1936
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
339 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL
HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70S. SOME INTERESTING THINGS GOING ON OUT THERE TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IOWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...THAT AS OF A
MIDNIGHT ANALYSIS WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. A VERY NICE LOW LEVEL JET HAS FORMED FROM OKLAHOMA UP
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THIS WAS FEEDING AN MCS UP IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT NOW THAT IT HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...IT HAS FALLEN APART. INSTEAD...NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE
INITIATING IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EVEN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 3
AM. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT THIS COULD HAVE
FOCUSED ON...BUT THERE IS A NICE SURGE OF 850MB WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA ACCORDING TO THE SPC RAP MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
THAT IT COULD BE FOCUSED ON.
LE
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND OF COURSE...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
IOWA IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE VERY FAR EAST BEFORE IT
MOVES OUT OF ITS MOISTURE FEED AND DISSIPATES. THE RAP MODEL IS
DEPICTING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND IT SEEMS TO ONLY PULL IT INTO THE
NORTH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT FALLS APART.
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS IN THIS REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN LOWER AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHER MODELS ALSO WANT TO POP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...PERHAPS IN A SIMILAR MODE OF INITIATION. AM NOT TERRIBLY
EXCITED ABOUT THIS AS THE CAP COMES INTO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY AS
MORE HOT DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT 700MB. THUS...HAVE
KEPT POPS TO ISOLATED OR SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS GOING TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...EVEN IF IT IS ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOWN OFF WESTERN
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH THE
MIXING AND DRY GROUND STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL GET WELL INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND TO AROUND 100 TODAY. MAY END UP HAVING TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPS IN ACROSS THE NORTH IF THIS CONVECTION ENDS UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A REAL BEAR TO FORECAST LATELY...AND WITH THE
LARGE IMPACT THEY HAVE ON HEAT INDEX VALUES...THEY HAVE BEEN
CRITICAL. TODAY AM USING A LOT OF PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAYS
FORECAST...BUT FEEL THAT WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THIS MAY ACT TO HOLD THEM UP EVEN AS WE GET
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING TODAY. CORN CROP HAS ALSO BEEN ACTING TO
HOLD THEM UP IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WE ARE GETTING FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE MOST RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS EFFECT MAY TAIL OFF SOMEWHAT.
THUS...AM CONTINUING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY AS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 105-110 RANGE FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FAR SOUTH HAS ESCAPED THIS LATELY AS THE
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S...BUT TODAY THE
EXTRA HEAT SHOULD EASE THEM OVER THE 105 MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME.
ALSO...WE ARE ON OUR 3RD DAY OF AT LEAST 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
VALUES...AND THIS IS GOING TO HAVE A DETRIMENTAL AFFECT ON PEOPLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE AREA FOR
NOW...BUT THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE GOING TO BE KEY FOR
DETERMINING WHAT GOES ON TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BETTER MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED OUT WEST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA REGION AGAIN...WHICH WOULD HAVE TO DRIFT EAST INTO OUR AREA
BEFORE DECAYING. IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO GET THIS FAR BEFORE
IT FALLS APART. MIN TEMPS TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LE
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN COOLER WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF JULY
THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN RETURNING HOT WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST. FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WITH THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK BLEAK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HOT AND HUMID TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE A REAL SCORCHER. WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS
ON FRIDAY OF AROUND 100 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT LEAST 110.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OF COURSE THIS ASSUMES
FULL SUNSHINE AND NO CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ANY MCS THAT MAY OCCUR TO OUR
NORTH. ANY CLOUDS WOULD KEEP THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. THE CONSENSUS IS THEN TO START BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND MORE CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE STILL HOT BUT NOT AS BAD AS FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING FROM 90 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 100
FROM HIGHWAY 34 SOUTHWARD. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO
105 RANGE. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF A WARNING FOR
SATURDAY FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVING FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN ERRONEOUSLY
DEPICTING LARGE AREAS OF QPF LATELY AND HAS BEEN IGNORED. BUT BASED
ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING THE ECM IS TOO DRY. THE ECM SUGGESTS
THE FRONT MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE BAD NEWS IS IF YOU MISS OUT ON THIS RAIN OPPORTUNITY THE MODELS
SUGGEST AN EXTENDED DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE MIDWEST WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES. WILL BE MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S...WHICH IS MORE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS STRENGTHENING AGAIN
INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF JULY BUT ALSO REMAINING DRY. THIS
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY WORSEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...BUT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS DURING MID DAY HOURS.
ERVIN
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 5...
MOLINE.........105 IN 1936
CEDAR RAPIDS...110 IN 1911
DUBUQUE........104 IN 1911
BURLINGTON.....108 IN 1936
RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 6...
MOLINE.........105 IN 1936
CEDAR RAPIDS...102 IN 1936
DUBUQUE........102 IN 1936
BURLINGTON.....105 IN 1936
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1143 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
INCREASED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THIS RAISED THE HEAT INDEX TO NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HILL CITY...NORTON AND MCCOOK AREAS.
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY SINCE THIS WILL BE A
MARGINAL EVENT AT BEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE THE REMAINING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING. WILL LIKELY BE A LOW END EVENT...BUT WITH THE
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES/FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SATELLITE SHOWING SAME PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGHS ALONG
EACH COAST AND BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. TROUGHS HAVE
SHOWN A LITTLE TREND TOWARD DEEPENING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND HELPED BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA .
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS THE NAM...SREF...
UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM...SREF...CANADIAN...
AND SREF WERE DOING VERY WELL ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD.
IN GENERAL MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH
THE NAM...UKMET...AND CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER AND THE ECMWF
THE WORST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...HAVE HAD LINGERING CONVECTION BUT IS ON THE
DECREASING TREND. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DONE BY 12Z SO LEFT ANY
MORNING MENTION OUT. OTHERWISE MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER 700 TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAP THE AIR MASS. SO REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNLESS MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CAUSES PROBLEMS...MAXES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LIFT GRAZING THE WEST. THIS WAS
VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND DID NOT CHANGE. EXCEPT MAYBE
FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS TURN TO HOW COOL TO MAKE TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR THEY WANT TO MOVE A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. SO THIS RESULTS IN BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IT COULD GO EITHER WAY BUT THERE WAS
SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT TO GO COOLER AND ADJUSTED MAXES SLIGHTLY DOWN.
MODELS ARE ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE IN HOW HANDLE THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. VERY WEAK LIFT IN PLACE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...I GUESS IT IS SUMMER. MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. AM THINKING THE FAR WEST HAS THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYPLACE. SO KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN FOR THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THE
INHERITED CRH_INIT GRIDS. HOWEVER...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CONVERGING ON EXPECTED VALUES...DID LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THOSE MAY BE TOO WARM BASED ON EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME. THESE DAYS AND REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT FOR COOLING THEM OFF.
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SITUATION...LOOK TO GIVE AREA A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKING WET.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECLINE. FRIDAY
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGLD AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT PLACE A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF DUE TO THEIR ISOLATED NATURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR TODAY...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM CURRENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
MAKING THE FORECAST MORE COMPLICATED THAN EXPECTED. HOW LONG THE COLD
POOL BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES KEEPS WINDS FROM PICKING UP PLUS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE KEPT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HRRR IS THE
ONLY MODEL CAPTURING CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
IT SHIFTS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASES THEM. ALSO
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NICELY AFTER THIS.
THE FURTHER WEST COUNTIES LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THRESHOLDS...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO SOME FIRES OCCURRED AND ARE ONGOING IN A FEW
COUNTIES IN THIS AREA. SO UPGRADED THAT AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE IN THE COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS
AREA. KEPT THE WATCH THERE FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THE TRENDS. THE NORTHEAST MOST COUNTIES LOOK TO NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE WATCH.
FOR FRIDAY...POSITION OF A BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN PLAY A KEY ROLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY PLUS HAVE A COMPLICATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT OUT
ALREADY SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING NOW AND MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
INCREASED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THIS RAISED THE HEAT INDEX TO NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HILL CITY...NORTON AND MCCOOK AREAS.
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY SINCE THIS WILL BE A
MARGINAL EVENT AT BEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE THE REMAINING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING. WILL LIKELY BE A LOW END EVENT...BUT WITH THE
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES/FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SATELLITE SHOWING SAME PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGHS ALONG
EACH COAST AND BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. TROUGHS HAVE
SHOWN A LITTLE TREND TOWARD DEEPENING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND HELPED BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA .
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS THE NAM...SREF...
UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM...SREF...CANADIAN...
AND SREF WERE DOING VERY WELL ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD.
IN GENERAL MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH
THE NAM...UKMET...AND CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER AND THE ECMWF
THE WORST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...HAVE HAD LINGERING CONVECTION BUT IS ON THE
DECREASING TREND. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DONE BY 12Z SO LEFT ANY
MORNING MENTION OUT. OTHERWISE MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER 700 TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAP THE AIR MASS. SO REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNLESS MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CAUSES PROBLEMS...MAXES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LIFT GRAZING THE WEST. THIS WAS
VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND DID NOT CHANGE. EXCEPT MAYBE
FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS TURN TO HOW COOL TO MAKE TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR THEY WANT TO MOVE A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. SO THIS RESULTS IN BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IT COULD GO EITHER WAY BUT THERE WAS
SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT TO GO COOLER AND ADJUSTED MAXES SLIGHTLY DOWN.
MODELS ARE ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE IN HOW HANDLE THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. VERY WEAK LIFT IN PLACE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...I GUESS IT IS SUMMER. MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. AM THINKING THE FAR WEST HAS THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYPLACE. SO KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN FOR THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THE
INHERITED CRH_INIT GRIDS. HOWEVER...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CONVERGING ON EXPECTED VALUES...DID LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THOSE MAY BE TOO WARM BASED ON EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME. THESE DAYS AND REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT FOR COOLING THEM OFF.
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SITUATION...LOOK TO GIVE AREA A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKING WET.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...INCREASE...AND BECOME GUSTY UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR TODAY...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM CURRENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
MAKING THE FORECAST MORE COMPLICATED THAN EXPECTED. HOW LONG THE COLD
POOL BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES KEEPS WINDS FROM PICKING UP PLUS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE KEPT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HRRR IS THE
ONLY MODEL CAPTURING CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
IT SHIFTS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASES THEM. ALSO
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NICELY AFTER THIS.
THE FURTHER WEST COUNTIES LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THRESHOLDS...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO SOME FIRES OCCURRED AND ARE ONGOING IN A FEW
COUNTIES IN THIS AREA. SO UPGRADED THAT AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE IN THE COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS
AREA. KEPT THE WATCH THERE FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THE TRENDS. THE NORTHEAST MOST COUNTIES LOOK TO NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE WATCH.
FOR FRIDAY...POSITION OF A BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN PLAY A KEY ROLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY PLUS HAVE A COMPLICATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT OUT
ALREADY SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING NOW AND MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
750 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE THE REMAINING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING. WILL LIKELY BE A LOW END EVENT...BUT WITH THE
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES/FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SATELLITE SHOWING SAME PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGHS ALONG
EACH COAST AND BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. TROUGHS HAVE
SHOWN A LITTLE TREND TOWARD DEEPENING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND HELPED BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA .
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS THE NAM...SREF...
UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM...SREF...CANADIAN...
AND SREF WERE DOING VERY WELL ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD.
IN GENERAL MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH
THE NAM...UKMET...AND CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER AND THE ECMWF
THE WORST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...HAVE HAD LINGERING CONVECTION BUT IS ON THE
DECREASING TREND. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DONE BY 12Z SO LEFT ANY
MORNING MENTION OUT. OTHERWISE MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER 700 TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAP THE AIR MASS. SO REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNLESS MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CAUSES PROBLEMS...MAXES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LIFT GRAZING THE WEST. THIS WAS
VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND DID NOT CHANGE. EXCEPT MAYBE
FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS TURN TO HOW COOL TO MAKE TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR THEY WANT TO MOVE A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. SO THIS RESULTS IN BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IT COULD GO EITHER WAY BUT THERE WAS
SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT TO GO COOLER AND ADJUSTED MAXES SLIGHTLY DOWN.
MODELS ARE ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE IN HOW HANDLE THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. VERY WEAK LIFT IN PLACE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...I GUESS IT IS SUMMER. MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. AM THINKING THE FAR WEST HAS THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYPLACE. SO KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN FOR THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THE
INHERITED CRH_INIT GRIDS. HOWEVER...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CONVERGING ON EXPECTED VALUES...DID LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THOSE MAY BE TOO WARM BASED ON EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME. THESE DAYS AND REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT FOR COOLING THEM OFF.
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SITUATION...LOOK TO GIVE AREA A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKING WET.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...INCREASE...AND BECOME GUSTY UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR TODAY...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM CURRENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
MAKING THE FORECAST MORE COMPLICATED THAN EXPECTED. HOW LONG THE COLD
POOL BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES KEEPS WINDS FROM PICKING UP PLUS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE KEPT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HRRR IS THE
ONLY MODEL CAPTURING CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
IT SHIFTS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASES THEM. ALSO
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NICELY AFTER THIS.
THE FURTHER WEST COUNTIES LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THRESHOLDS...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO SOME FIRES OCCURRED AND ARE ONGOING IN A FEW
COUNTIES IN THIS AREA. SO UPGRADED THAT AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE IN THE COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS
AREA. KEPT THE WATCH THERE FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THE TRENDS. THE NORTHEAST MOST COUNTIES LOOK TO NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE WATCH.
FOR FRIDAY...POSITION OF A BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN PLAY A KEY ROLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY PLUS HAVE A COMPLICATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT OUT
ALREADY SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING NOW AND MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES/FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SATELLITE SHOWING SAME PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGHS ALONG
EACH COAST AND BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. TROUGHS HAVE
SHOWN A LITTLE TREND TOWARD DEEPENING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND HELPED BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA .
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS THE NAM...SREF...
UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM...SREF...CANADIAN...
AND SREF WERE DOING VERY WELL ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD.
IN GENERAL MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH
THE NAM...UKMET...AND CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER AND THE ECMWF
THE WORST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...HAVE HAD LINGERING CONVECTION BUT IS ON THE
DECREASING TREND. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DONE BY 12Z SO LEFT ANY
MORNING MENTION OUT. OTHERWISE MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER 700 TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAP THE AIR MASS. SO REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNLESS MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CAUSES PROBLEMS...MAXES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LIFT GRAZING THE WEST. THIS WAS
VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND DID NOT CHANGE. EXCEPT MAYBE
FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS TURN TO HOW COOL TO MAKE TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR THEY WANT TO MOVE A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. SO THIS RESULTS IN BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IT COULD GO EITHER WAY BUT THERE WAS
SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT TO GO COOLER AND ADJUSTED MAXES SLIGHTLY DOWN.
MODELS ARE ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE IN HOW HANDLE THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. VERY WEAK LIFT IN PLACE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...I GUESS IT IS SUMMER. MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. AM THINKING THE FAR WEST HAS THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYPLACE. SO KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN FOR THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THE
INHERITED CRH_INIT GRIDS. HOWEVER...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CONVERGING ON EXPECTED VALUES...DID LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THOSE MAY BE TOO WARM BASED ON EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME. THESE DAYS AND REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT FOR COOLING THEM OFF.
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SITUATION...LOOK TO GIVE AREA A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKING WET.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...INCREASE...AND BECOME GUSTY UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR TODAY...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM CURRENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
MAKING THE FORECAST MORE COMPLICATED THAN EXPECTED. HOW LONG THE COLD
POOL BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES KEEPS WINDS FROM PICKING UP PLUS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE KEPT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HRRR IS THE
ONLY MODEL CAPTURING CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
IT SHIFTS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASES THEM. ALSO
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NICELY AFTER THIS.
THE FURTHER WEST COUNTIES LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THRESHOLDS...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO SOME FIRES OCCURRED AND ARE ONGOING IN A FEW
COUNTIES IN THIS AREA. SO UPGRADED THAT AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE IN THE COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS
AREA. KEPT THE WATCH THERE FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THE TRENDS. THE NORTHEAST MOST COUNTIES LOOK TO NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE WATCH.
FOR FRIDAY...POSITION OF A BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN PLAY A KEY ROLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY PLUS HAVE A COMPLICATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT OUT
ALREADY SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING NOW AND MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ002-015-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES/FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SATELLITE SHOWING SAME PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGHS ALONG
EACH COAST AND BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. TROUGHS HAVE
SHOWN A LITTLE TREND TOWARD DEEPENING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND HELPED BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA .
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS THE NAM...SREF...
UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM...SREF...CANADIAN...
AND SREF WERE DOING VERY WELL ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD.
IN GENERAL MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH
THE NAM...UKMET...AND CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER AND THE ECMWF
THE WORST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...HAVE HAD LINGERING CONVECTION BUT IS ON THE
DECREASING TREND. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DONE BY 12Z SO LEFT ANY
MORNING MENTION OUT. OTHERWISE MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER 700 TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAP THE AIR MASS. SO REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNLESS MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CAUSES PROBLEMS...MAXES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LIFT GRAZING THE WEST. THIS WAS
VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND DID NOT CHANGE. EXCEPT MAYBE
FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS TURN TO HOW COOL TO MAKE TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR THEY WANT TO MOVE A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. SO THIS RESULTS IN BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IT COULD GO EITHER WAY BUT THERE WAS
SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT TO GO COOLER AND ADJUSTED MAXES SLIGHTLY DOWN.
MODELS ARE ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE IN HOW HANDLE THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. VERY WEAK LIFT IN PLACE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...I GUESS IT IS SUMMER. MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. AM THINKING THE FAR WEST HAS THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYPLACE. SO KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN FOR THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT THE
INHERITED CRH_INIT GRIDS. HOWEVER...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CONVERGING ON EXPECTED VALUES...DID LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THOSE MAY BE TOO WARM BASED ON EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME. THESE DAYS AND REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT FOR COOLING THEM OFF.
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SITUATION...LOOK TO GIVE AREA A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKING WET.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2012
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ELUDE KGLD BUT OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOP OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KGLD IS
LOW...WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KMCK SO NO
PLAN TO MENTION CONVECTION THERE. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY AROUND 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR TODAY...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM CURRENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
MAKING THE FORECAST MORE COMPLICATED THAN EXPECTED. HOW LONG THE COLD
POOL BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES KEEPS WINDS FROM PICKING UP PLUS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE KEPT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HRRR IS THE
ONLY MODEL CAPTURING CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
IT SHIFTS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASES THEM. ALSO
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NICELY AFTER THIS.
THE FURTHER WEST COUNTIES LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THRESHOLDS...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS. ALSO SOME FIRES OCCURRED AND ARE ONGOING IN A FEW
COUNTIES IN THIS AREA. SO UPGRADED THAT AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE IN THE COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS
AREA. KEPT THE WATCH THERE FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THE TRENDS. THE NORTHEAST MOST COUNTIES LOOK TO NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE WATCH.
FOR FRIDAY...POSITION OF A BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN PLAY A KEY ROLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY PLUS HAVE A COMPLICATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT OUT
ALREADY SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING NOW AND MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ002-015-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FOLTZ
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
126 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
ACTIVITY HAS QUICKLY PICKED UP AHEAD AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD POOL DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOTS OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOTS OF INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO WITH
SBCAPE AROUND 5000 J/KG. THUS...LOOK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. HRRR HAS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY EXITING TO OUR SOUTH AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE BOUNDARY HAS TURNED QUITE ACTIVE TO
THE EAST CLOSE TO CHARLESTON...BUT HAS NOT YET TURNED ACTIVE FURTHER
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WITH 5000J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING...I EXPECT
TO SEE SOME EXPANSION TO THE WEST ALONG THIS LINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE THREAT...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT FOR AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF I-75. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MCS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS
WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND MCV WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING...SBCAPE WILL SURGE TO AT LEAST 4000
J/KG AN POTENTIALLY HIGHER. WITH THE MCV DROPPING SOUTH DURING THE
PEAK HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE MCV
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM BEFORE JUMPING ON BOARD COMPLETELY.
REGARDLESS...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF 40 MPH WINDS AND NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS COULD REACH 60 MPH. THUS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL...BUT I EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ALL OF THESE CHANGES. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY...THAT COULD PUT OUR HIGHS A TAD LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS MORE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. RECORD HIGHS WILL GET SQUASHED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE HAD A FEW SPOTS EVEN IN THE EAST CREEP TO OVER A 100
DEGREE HEAT INDICES YESTERDAY...AND SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS READINGS LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE
BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF I-75.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED COVERAGE THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL QUESTIONABLE
TRIGGERS THROUGH FRIDAY...ITS HARD TO REALLY ADVERTISE MORE THAN
ISOLATED POPS...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THIS IDEA FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST. THE NAM HAS BEEN PLAYING UP A POTENTIAL MCS FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POOR CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION...THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PRETTY MUCH ADDED A DEGREE OR SO FROM THE HIGHS
THAT WERE ACHIEVED ON WEDNESDAY FOR TODAY...AND THEN ANOTHER DEGREE
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 70 AND 75...WITH A
FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR THE EXTENDED THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RENEWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BE
SHUNTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED BY TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE
NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND LATEST
ECMWF HAVE PARKED A MINIMA OF HEIGHTS OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WEST. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CLEAR
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING AND HOPING FOR AND WILL
BREAK THE HEAT WAVE. SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW HAVE CONFIRMED THE
BREAKDOWN AND RETREAT OF THE RIDGE SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT
WE CAN TALK SERIOUSLY ABOUT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BEFORE TOO LONG INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY OR TWO OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING LIKELY KEEPING ANY CONVECTION AT BAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A BIT HIGHER PCPN POTENTIAL ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND A WAVY SFC BOUNDARY CREEPS CLOSER FROM THE
NORTH. IT IS THIS BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN MOST DISPUTE AMONG THE
MODELS THESE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE GFS AND GEM PUSHING ITO
SOUTH INTO...AN IN SOME CASES THROUGH...KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
EVENING. THE NEW...AND PREFERRED...ECMWF WILL SAG THIS FRONT INTO
OUR PART OF THE STATE ON MONDAY PROPER AND HOLD IT THERE AS A PRIME
WEATHER FACTOR INTO TUESDAY. LATER ON FOR WEDNESDAY...IT FORMS A
WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY OVER EAST KENTUCKY THAT...SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
WILL CERTAINLY HEARTEN OUR HOPES FOR DROUGHT MITIGATING RAINS. HAVE
NOT BOUGHT TOTALLY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET...BUT DID GUIDE THE
GRIDS TOWARDS IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CR POPULATION SCRIPT
STARTING POINT.
BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND A RETURN OF DECENT CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN AS A PRETTY GOOD AMALGAM OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
SO ONLY HAD TO TWEAK THE POPS A TAD EACH DAY TO TILT THE SCALE MORE
TOWARD THE OVERSEAS MODEL AND ALSO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
POPS. IN ADDITION...MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TERRAN DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z...BUT COULD LINGER A BIT
LONGER. BY MIDNIGHT...THINGS WILL TURN MUCH QUIETER AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
111 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
ACTIVITY HAS QUICKLY PICKED UP AHEAD AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD POOL DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOTS OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOTS OF INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO WITH
SBCAPE AROUND 5000 J/KG. THUS...LOOK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. HRRR HAS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY EXITING TO OUR SOUTH AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE BOUNDARY HAS TURNED QUITE ACTIVE TO
THE EAST CLOSE TO CHARLESTON...BUT HAS NOT YET TURNED ACTIVE FURTHER
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WITH 5000J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING...I EXPECT
TO SEE SOME EXPANSION TO THE WEST ALONG THIS LINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE THREAT...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT FOR AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF I-75. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MCS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS
WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND MCV WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING...SBCAPE WILL SURGE TO AT LEAST 4000
J/KG AN POTENTIALLY HIGHER. WITH THE MCV DROPPING SOUTH DURING THE
PEAK HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE MCV
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM BEFORE JUMPING ON BOARD COMPLETELY.
REGARDLESS...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF 40 MPH WINDS AND NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS COULD REACH 60 MPH. THUS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL...BUT I EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ALL OF THESE CHANGES. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY...THAT COULD PUT OUR HIGHS A TAD LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS MORE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. RECORD HIGHS WILL GET SQUASHED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE HAD A FEW SPOTS EVEN IN THE EAST CREEP TO OVER A 100
DEGREE HEAT INDICES YESTERDAY...AND SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS READINGS LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE
BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF I-75.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED COVERAGE THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL QUESTIONABLE
TRIGGERS THROUGH FRIDAY...ITS HARD TO REALLY ADVERTISE MORE THAN
ISOLATED POPS...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THIS IDEA FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST. THE NAM HAS BEEN PLAYING UP A POTENTIAL MCS FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POOR CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION...THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PRETTY MUCH ADDED A DEGREE OR SO FROM THE HIGHS
THAT WERE ACHIEVED ON WEDNESDAY FOR TODAY...AND THEN ANOTHER DEGREE
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 70 AND 75...WITH A
FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR THE EXTENDED THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RENEWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BE
SHUNTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED BY TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE
NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND LATEST
ECMWF HAVE PARKED A MINIMA OF HEIGHTS OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WEST. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CLEAR
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING AND HOPING FOR AND WILL
BREAK THE HEAT WAVE. SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW HAVE CONFIRMED THE
BREAKDOWN AND RETREAT OF THE RIDGE SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT
WE CAN TALK SERIOUSLY ABOUT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BEFORE TOO LONG INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY OR TWO OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING LIKELY KEEPING ANY CONVECTION AT BAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A BIT HIGHER PCPN POTENTIAL ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND A WAVY SFC BOUNDARY CREEPS CLOSER FROM THE
NORTH. IT IS THIS BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN MOST DISPUTE AMONG THE
MODELS THESE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE GFS AND GEM PUSHING ITO
SOUTH INTO...AN IN SOME CASES THROUGH...KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
EVENING. THE NEW...AND PREFERRED...ECMWF WILL SAG THIS FRONT INTO
OUR PART OF THE STATE ON MONDAY PROPER AND HOLD IT THERE AS A PRIME
WEATHER FACTOR INTO TUESDAY. LATER ON FOR WEDNESDAY...IT FORMS A
WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY OVER EAST KENTUCKY THAT...SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
WILL CERTAINLY HEARTEN OUR HOPES FOR DROUGHT MITIGATING RAINS. HAVE
NOT BOUGHT TOTALLY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET...BUT DID GUIDE THE
GRIDS TOWARDS IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CR POPULATION SCRIPT
STARTING POINT.
BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND A RETURN OF DECENT CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN AS A PRETTY GOOD AMALGAM OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
SO ONLY HAD TO TWEAK THE POPS A TAD EACH DAY TO TILT THE SCALE MORE
TOWARD THE OVERSEAS MODEL AND ALSO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
POPS. IN ADDITION...MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TERRAN DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS THE AREA THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING...BEFORE ENGAGING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARDS DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1157 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE BOUNDARY HAS TURNED QUITE ACTIVE TO
THE EAST CLOSE TO CHARLESTON...BUT HAS NOT YET TURNED ACTIVE FURTHER
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WITH 5000J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING...I EXPECT
TO SEE SOME EXPANSION TO THE WEST ALONG THIS LINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE THREAT...SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT FOR AREA MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF I-75. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MCS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS
WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND MCV WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING...SBCAPE WILL SURGE TO AT LEAST 4000
J/KG AN POTENTIALLY HIGHER. WITH THE MCV DROPPING SOUTH DURING THE
PEAK HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE MCV
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM BEFORE JUMPING ON BOARD COMPLETELY.
REGARDLESS...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF 40 MPH WINDS AND NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS COULD REACH 60 MPH. THUS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL...BUT I EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ALL OF THESE CHANGES. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY...THAT COULD PUT OUR HIGHS A TAD LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS MORE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. RECORD HIGHS WILL GET SQUASHED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE HAD A FEW SPOTS EVEN IN THE EAST CREEP TO OVER A 100
DEGREE HEAT INDICES YESTERDAY...AND SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS READINGS LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE
BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF I-75.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED COVERAGE THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL QUESTIONABLE
TRIGGERS THROUGH FRIDAY...ITS HARD TO REALLY ADVERTISE MORE THAN
ISOLATED POPS...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THIS IDEA FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST. THE NAM HAS BEEN PLAYING UP A POTENTIAL MCS FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POOR CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION...THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PRETTY MUCH ADDED A DEGREE OR SO FROM THE HIGHS
THAT WERE ACHIEVED ON WEDNESDAY FOR TODAY...AND THEN ANOTHER DEGREE
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 70 AND 75...WITH A
FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR THE EXTENDED THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RENEWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BE
SHUNTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED BY TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE
NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND LATEST
ECMWF HAVE PARKED A MINIMA OF HEIGHTS OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WEST. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CLEAR
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING AND HOPING FOR AND WILL
BREAK THE HEAT WAVE. SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW HAVE CONFIRMED THE
BREAKDOWN AND RETREAT OF THE RIDGE SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT
WE CAN TALK SERIOUSLY ABOUT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BEFORE TOO LONG INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY OR TWO OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING LIKELY KEEPING ANY CONVECTION AT BAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A BIT HIGHER PCPN POTENTIAL ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND A WAVY SFC BOUNDARY CREEPS CLOSER FROM THE
NORTH. IT IS THIS BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN MOST DISPUTE AMONG THE
MODELS THESE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE GFS AND GEM PUSHING ITO
SOUTH INTO...AN IN SOME CASES THROUGH...KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
EVENING. THE NEW...AND PREFERRED...ECMWF WILL SAG THIS FRONT INTO
OUR PART OF THE STATE ON MONDAY PROPER AND HOLD IT THERE AS A PRIME
WEATHER FACTOR INTO TUESDAY. LATER ON FOR WEDNESDAY...IT FORMS A
WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY OVER EAST KENTUCKY THAT...SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
WILL CERTAINLY HEARTEN OUR HOPES FOR DROUGHT MITIGATING RAINS. HAVE
NOT BOUGHT TOTALLY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET...BUT DID GUIDE THE
GRIDS TOWARDS IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CR POPULATION SCRIPT
STARTING POINT.
BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND A RETURN OF DECENT CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN AS A PRETTY GOOD AMALGAM OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
SO ONLY HAD TO TWEAK THE POPS A TAD EACH DAY TO TILT THE SCALE MORE
TOWARD THE OVERSEAS MODEL AND ALSO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
POPS. IN ADDITION...MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TERRAN DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS THE AREA THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING...BEFORE ENGAGING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARDS DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
924 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MCS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS
WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND MCV WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING...SBCAPE WILL SURGE TO AT LEAST 4000
J/KG AN POTENTIALLY HIGHER. WITH THE MCV DROPPING SOUTH DURING THE
PEAK HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE MCV
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM BEFORE JUMPING ON BOARD COMPLETELY.
REGARDLESS...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF 40 MPH WINDS AND NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS COULD REACH 60 MPH. THUS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL...BUT I EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ALL OF THESE CHANGES. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY...THAT COULD PUT OUR HIGHS A TAD LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS MORE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. RECORD HIGHS WILL GET SQUASHED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE HAD A FEW SPOTS EVEN IN THE EAST CREEP TO OVER A 100
DEGREE HEAT INDICES YESTERDAY...AND SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS READINGS LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE
BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF I-75.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED COVERAGE THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL QUESTIONABLE
TRIGGERS THROUGH FRIDAY...ITS HARD TO REALLY ADVERTISE MORE THAN
ISOLATED POPS...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THIS IDEA FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST. THE NAM HAS BEEN PLAYING UP A POTENTIAL MCS FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POOR CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION...THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PRETTY MUCH ADDED A DEGREE OR SO FROM THE HIGHS
THAT WERE ACHIEVED ON WEDNESDAY FOR TODAY...AND THEN ANOTHER DEGREE
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 70 AND 75...WITH A
FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
FOR THE EXTENDED THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RENEWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BE
SHUNTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED BY TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE
NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND LATEST
ECMWF HAVE PARKED A MINIMA OF HEIGHTS OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WEST. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CLEAR
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING AND HOPING FOR AND WILL
BREAK THE HEAT WAVE. SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW HAVE CONFIRMED THE
BREAKDOWN AND RETREAT OF THE RIDGE SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT
WE CAN TALK SERIOUSLY ABOUT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BEFORE TOO LONG INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY OR TWO OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING LIKELY KEEPING ANY CONVECTION AT BAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A BIT HIGHER PCPN POTENTIAL ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND A WAVY SFC BOUNDARY CREEPS CLOSER FROM THE
NORTH. IT IS THIS BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN MOST DISPUTE AMONG THE
MODELS THESE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE GFS AND GEM PUSHING ITO
SOUTH INTO...AN IN SOME CASES THROUGH...KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
EVENING. THE NEW...AND PREFERRED...ECMWF WILL SAG THIS FRONT INTO
OUR PART OF THE STATE ON MONDAY PROPER AND HOLD IT THERE AS A PRIME
WEATHER FACTOR INTO TUESDAY. LATER ON FOR WEDNESDAY...IT FORMS A
WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY OVER EAST KENTUCKY THAT...SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
WILL CERTAINLY HEARTEN OUR HOPES FOR DROUGHT MITIGATING RAINS. HAVE
NOT BOUGHT TOTALLY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET...BUT DID GUIDE THE
GRIDS TOWARDS IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CR POPULATION SCRIPT
STARTING POINT.
BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND A RETURN OF DECENT CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
THE GRID LOAD CAME IN AS A PRETTY GOOD AMALGAM OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
SO ONLY HAD TO TWEAK THE POPS A TAD EACH DAY TO TILT THE SCALE MORE
TOWARD THE OVERSEAS MODEL AND ALSO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
POPS. IN ADDITION...MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TERRAN DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS THE AREA THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING...BEFORE ENGAGING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARDS DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE: WE REMOVED ALL ENHANCED TSTM WORDING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVE AND RELATED TSTM CVRG TO ISOLD WITH SCT SHWRS
FOR THE TIME BEING. THE HRRR (RAPID UPDATE) MODEL INDICATES THAT
AFT THE LN OF SHWRS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING E ACROSS NE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY MOVES E INTO NB PROV...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS AND ISOLD
TSTMS FURTHER S OVR QB COULD MOVE MSLY INTO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN...SO WE BROUGHT POPS
TO HI CHC CAT OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS TM AND BRING POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC OVR THE N BY ERLY SAT MORN.
OTHERWISE...WE LOWERED WINDS OVR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN VLYS TO NEAR
CALM AND LOADED 8 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED TO
UNMODIFIED FCST LOWS POSTED AT 5 AM SAT.
6 PM UPDATE: THUNDERSHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. SO FAR THEY ARE ONLY SMALL STORMS WITH TOPS AROUND 25KFT
AND LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. THUNDERSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EAST THIS EVENING. WE HAVE KEPT MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL IN FORECAST BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IF ANY STRONG
STORMS OCCURRED THEY WOULD BE ISOLATED.
ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD THIS EVENING. CAN SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TRYING TO POP UP ALONG THIS FEATURE, AND THESE
SHOULD ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING, REACHING FAR WESTERN
MAINE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS
CONVECTION, BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR STORMS, POSSIBLY ON THE STRONG SIDE, THIS EVENING.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AROUND AS CAPES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING
AROUND 500 J/KG, WITH SOME A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST APPROACHING 900 J/KG. A 100-KT JET AT 300 MB WILL BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE
LIFT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR,
AS WELL, WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO PERHAPS 40 KT. HOWEVER, GIVEN
ALL THIS, AM STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT, STRONG OR OTHERWISE. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THERE IS SOME HIGHER MOISTURE TO
BE SEEN IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WHERE DEWPOINTS OF 65-68 ARE BEING
REPORTED. IF WINDS CAN TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING SOME
OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE IN, THIS WOULD HELP THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER FACTOR ARGUING AGAINST STORMS IS WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, RESULTING IN WEAK LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND 6C.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE MIGHT GET A BIT OF COOLING ALOFT LATER THIS
EVENING, THOUGH, WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP KEEP STORMS GOING. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS, HAVE KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH POPS WERE LIMITED AT 40 PERCENT. NOTED
THAT SPC DOES HAVE NORTHERN MAINE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS, AND IF EVERYTHING WORKS OUT RIGHT, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
STRONG OR MAYBE SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT STORMS ARE ALREADY HAVING
DIFFICULTY FORMING UPSTREAM. CONTINUED WITH SOME ENHANCED WORDING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THIS
EVENING, BUT THE TRUE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
APPEARS TO ALMOST BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY LATE
TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY IS LOST. MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY,
SO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S.
FOR TOMORROW, THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE FOCUS OF MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS REALLY LACKING TOMORROW, ONLY RUNNING AROUND
300 J/KG AT BEST. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER, AND
ONLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. TOMORROW WILL BE A WARM ONE, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT BANGOR MAY HIT
90 TOMORROW, BUT FELT THIS WAS A BIT OVERDONE. MID TO UPPER 80S
SHOULD BE THE MAX DOWNEAST. FURTHER NORTH, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. COULD STILL HAVE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
CLIP NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA BACKS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AS A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS IN
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN A SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTHWARD UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
INDICATING THAT WESTERLIES ACROSS OUR REGION SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAINTAINING
DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH WHICH MAY BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER. THE
GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SOME MVFR NORTH/IFR SOUTH IN LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...WE LOWERED WV HTS ABOUT A FOOT OVR ALL
OF OUR MZS BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS. REST SAME AS LAST UPDATE.
ORGNL DISC...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE
LOCALLY REDUCED IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS. WE`RE
SEEING MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED,
WHICH HAVE ALLOWED SB CAPES TO REACH 500 J/KG OR MORE IN SCATTERED
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE STATE. SHOWERS HAVE STARTED POPPING UP ON
RADAR OVER THE NORTH WOODS AND THESE SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO AJUSTED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
UP A BIT OWING TO THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE,
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS E OF HOULTON
AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RUC LINED UP WELL THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH A BIT OVERDONE AS
FAR AS AREAL COVERAGE. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS TO
FIT BETTER W/THE RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY. THIS MEANS HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES(60%) IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED
LOW IS SHOWN TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE INVERTED TROF FROM THE
SFC LOW WILL SLIDE E. AFTER 12Z, DECIDED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
POPS AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION AND AREAL PLACEMENT OF QPF . THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS
TO GO W/40-50% POPS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE W/SBCAPE OF
400-500 JOULES. THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. SATL IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN HEATING. LAPSE RATE ARE MEAGER AT BEST
(5.5-6C/KM). SOME COOLING ALOFT IS NOTED. DECIDED TO CARRY ISOLD
TSTMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PWS(1.5") AND FZL LVLS OF 12.5 FT WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY TSTMS. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND HPC WAS
USED FOR THE QPF W/MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS E AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
AND THIS COUPLED W/A WET SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
DECIDED TO ADD FOG FOR ALL AREAS. HYDROLAPSE RATES FROM THE MDL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FOG POTENTIAL. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO ASSESS THIS
FURTHER TODAY. RAISED DAYCREW/S MINS UP A CATEGORY USING THE LAMP
AND NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. SB CAPES LOOK RATHER MODEST AS DO 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT LOOKING ALL THAT HIGH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER 80S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TONIGHT W/FOG
DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM: SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NRN AREAS FRIDAY AND THE
REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT COULD DECREASE TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER TSTMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NNE AT 10 KTS OR LESS. SWELLS WILL BE COMMON THIS TERM
W/PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS. STAYED W/DAYCREW ASSESSMENT OF 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED
POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS; THE LAST LINGERING PRECIP HAS
MOVED OFF SHORE, BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE TOO MINIMAL FOR THUNDER OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS E OF HOULTON
AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RUC LINED UP WELL THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH A BIT OVERDONE AS
FAR AS AREAL COVERAGE. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS TO
FIT BETTER W/THE RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY. THIS MEANS HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES(60%) IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED
LOW IS SHOWN TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE INVERTED TROF FROM THE
SFC LOW WILL SLIDE E. AFTER 12Z, DECIDED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
POPS AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION AND AREAL PLACEMENT OF QPF . THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS
TO GO W/40-50% POPS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE W/SBCAPE OF
400-500 JOULES. THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. SATL IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN HEATING. LAPSE RATE ARE MEAGER AT BEST
(5.5-6C/KM). SOME COOLING ALOFT IS NOTED. DECIDED TO CARRY ISOLD
TSTMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PWS(1.5") AND FZL LVLS OF 12.5 FT WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY TSTMS. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND HPC WAS
USED FOR THE QPF W/MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS E AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
AND THIS COUPLED W/A WET SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
DECIDED TO ADD FOG FOR ALL AREAS. HYDROLAPSE RATES FROM THE MDL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FOG POTENTIAL. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO ASSESS THIS
FURTHER TODAY. RAISED DAYCREW/S MINS UP A CATEGORY USING THE LAMP
AND NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. SB CAPES LOOK RATHER MODEST AS DO 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT LOOKING ALL THAT HIGH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER 80S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TONIGHT W/FOG
DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM: SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NRN AREAS FRIDAY AND THE
REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT COULD DECREASE TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER TSTMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NNE AT 10 KTS OR LESS. SWELLS WILL BE COMMON THIS TERM
W/PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS. STAYED W/DAYCREW ASSESSMENT OF 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
723 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO FIT W/THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR WHICH SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE COAST AND EASTERN
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. KEPT FOG IN THROUGH 8AM AND MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS E OF HOULTON
AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RUC LINED UP WELL THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH A BIT OVERDONE AS
FAR AS AREAL COVERAGE. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS TO
FIT BETTER W/THE RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY. THIS MEANS HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES(60%) IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED
LOW IS SHOWN TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE INVERTED TROF FROM THE
SFC LOW WILL SLIDE E. AFTER 12Z, DECIDED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
POPS AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION AND AREAL PLACEMENT OF QPF . THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS
TO GO W/40-50% POPS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE W/SBCAPE OF
400-500 JOULES. THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. SATL IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN HEATING. LAPSE RATE ARE MEAGER AT BEST
(5.5-6C/KM). SOME COOLING ALOFT IS NOTED. DECIDED TO CARRY ISOLD
TSTMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PWS(1.5") AND FZL LVLS OF 12.5 FT WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY TSTMS. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND HPC WAS
USED FOR THE QPF W/MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS E AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
AND THIS COUPLED W/A WET SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
DECIDED TO ADD FOG FOR ALL AREAS. HYDROLAPSE RATES FROM THE MDL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FOG POTENTIAL. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO ASSESS THIS
FURTHER TODAY. RAISED DAYCREW/S MINS UP A CATEGORY USING THE LAMP
AND NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. SB CAPES LOOK RATHER MODEST AS DO 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT LOOKING ALL THAT HIGH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER 80S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TONIGHT W/FOG
DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM: SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NRN AREAS FRIDAY AND THE
REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT COULD DECREASE TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER TSTMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NNE AT 10 KTS OR LESS. SWELLS WILL BE COMMON THIS TERM
W/PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS. STAYED W/DAYCREW ASSESSMENT OF 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
427 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS E OF HOULTON
AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RUC LINED UP WELL THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH A BIT OVERDONE AS
FAR AS AREAL COVERAGE. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS TO
FIT BETTER W/THE RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY. THIS MEANS HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES(60%) IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED
LOW IS SHOWN TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE
MARITIMES THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE INVERTED TROF FROM THE
SFC LOW WILL SLIDE E. AFTER 12Z, DECIDED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
POPS AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION AND AREAL PLACEMENT OF QPF . THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS
TO GO W/40-50% POPS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE W/SBCAPE OF
400-500 JOULES. THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. SATL IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN HEATING. LAPSE RATE ARE MEAGER AT BEST
(5.5-6C/KM). SOME COOLING ALOFT IS NOTED. DECIDED TO CARRY ISOLD
TSTMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PWS(1.5") AND FZL LVLS OF 12.5 FT WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY TSTMS. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND HPC WAS
USED FOR THE QPF W/MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS E AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
AND THIS COUPLED W/A WET SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
DECIDED TO ADD FOG FOR ALL AREAS. HYDROLAPSE RATES FROM THE MDL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FOG POTENTIAL. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO ASSESS THIS
FURTHER TODAY. RAISED DAYCREW/S MINS UP A CATEGORY USING THE LAMP
AND NAM12 TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. SB CAPES LOOK RATHER MODEST AS DO 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT LOOKING ALL THAT HIGH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER 80S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TONIGHT W/FOG
DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM: SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NRN AREAS FRIDAY AND THE
REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT COULD DECREASE TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER TSTMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NNE AT 10 KTS OR LESS. SWELLS WILL BE COMMON THIS TERM
W/PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS. STAYED W/DAYCREW ASSESSMENT OF 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1232 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS USING THE HRRR AND RUC AS THESE
MESOSCALE MDLS ARE HANDLING THE SHOWERS/TSTMS AND AREAL PLACEMENT
VERY WELL. AREA OF HIGHEST ACTION WILL PIVOT ESE BUT WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. KEPT TSTMS IN THE FCST FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE BEST INSTABILITY
RESIDES. ADJUSTED FIRST 12 HRS OF QPF USING THE GEM AND RADAR
TRENDS. SOME AREAS WILL 0.50-1.00 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAFL IN
THE TSTMS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. BHB ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2-1/4SM.
PREV DISCUSSION: A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST/STEADIEST PRECIPITATION TOWARD EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEPS SHOWERS
AROUND, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MAINE, INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
RETREATING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW PEAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR THU NGT AFTER ANY REMAINING SHWRS
OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING UPPER LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA DURG THE EVE HRS DISSIPATE. A SFC WIND SHIFT FROM NE
TO WSW FRI WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM QB ON
FRI AS A S/WV RIDGE CROSSES THE FA.
A S/WV TOPPING THIS RIDGE FROM NRN ONT PROV COULD BRING MSLY NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TSTMS BEGINNING LATE FRI AFTN AND CONTG WELL INTO
THE NGT HRS. WITH MOST OF THE DEEP LAYER RH WELL N OF THE FA DURG
THIS TM FRAME...WE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE HI CHC CAT FOR THE TM
BEING. HOWEVER...THOSE STORMS THAT DUE FORM WILL BE BENEFITED BY
MDTLY STRONG DVRG HI ALF...WITH MODEST AFTN SB CAPES OF ARND 1000
J/KM AND ABOUT 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR.
THE SFC COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE LEAD S/WV THAT PRODUCES CNVCTN FRI
NGT ON SAT...CROSSING THE FA DURG THE AFTN AND EVE HRS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT TO PERHAPS BKN LN OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE MSLY ACROSS E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...BUT GIVEN VERY MODEST SB
CAPE VALUES DURG THIS TM FRAME...WE KEPT POPS MSLY AT 40 PERCENT
ATTM.
AFT A MILD NGT FRI NGT...HI TEMPS SAT LOOK TO BE WARMEST OVR CNTRL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS NRN PTNS OF THE FA EXPERIENCE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MID TO LATE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING TSTMS FROM SAT AFTN SHOULD EXIT S OF THE FA AND OUR
COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NGT. SUN SHOULD START FAIR...BUT
BUILDING CU DUE TO COLD AIR ALF ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT UPPER
TROUGHINESS OVR ERN CAN COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT SPRINKLES BY
AFTN. SLGT CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN GRIDS...BUT OF COURSE NOT
MENTIONED WITHIN OUR LEGACY ZONE FCST PRODUCTS. HI TEMPS SUN WILL
BE ABT 5 TO 10 DEG F COOLER THAN SAT. ANY REMAINING SHWRS SHOULD
DISSIPATE DURG SUN NGT...WITH MON LOOKING FAIR...BUT ANOTHER FEW
DEG COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER WEAK S/WV APCHG FROM CNTRL CAN COULD BRING SOME CLDNSS AND
A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS TO THE REGION LATE MON NGT AND ERLY TUE MORN...
OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS AND A WRMG TREND IS XPCTD INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WELL WITH FOG EXPECTED GENERALLY FROM 06Z-11Z. KBGR AND
KBHB STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY IFR IN THIS FOG, THOUGH
CEILINGS AT KFVE MAY DROP BELOW 1000 FT AT TIMES. BHB IS ALREADY
DOWN TO 1 MILE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THU NGT THRU MON XCPT
BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS/CLGS WITH ANY TSTMS OR HEAVIER SHWRS FROM FRI
AFTN INTO ERLY SAT EVE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND FOG,
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: STILL NO DEFINITIVE HDLN PDS SLATED FOR THIS
PTN OF THE FCST. WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z NAM12/GFS40/GMOS THRU
SAT NGT AND MSLY 12Z GMOS WITH SOME 12Z GFS40 AND 06Z DGEX DATA
FOR WINDS. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 FOR WVS OVR OUTER WATERS TAPERED TO
ABOUT HALF OUTER WATERS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVR INNER
HARBORS AND BAYS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
732 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE TODAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SEVERAL NORTHERN
COUNTIES, PLUS ADDED MENTION OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH, AS ONE OR TWO MORE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY,
ONE THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND THIS AFTERNOON, PER RECENT RADAR
DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION
COUNTIES, AS HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON. OF
COURSE, THUNDERSTORM PASSAGES MAY CUT INTO THAT, BUT THAT IS THE
POTENTIAL.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TODAY BASED ON BLEND OF
RECENT HRRR, GFS LAMP, NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES.
EXPECT SKIES TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY, DEPENDING ON
MOVEMENT OF MCS, WITH A BIT LESS HUMIDITY, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID-WESTERN RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BUILD INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY, MEANING THE HOTTEST AIR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY, AND HIGHER TDS SLOWLY MAKING A
RETURN, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES
OF UL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SFC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING AND DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL NEED TO BRING POPS BACK IN ON
SATURDAY WITH THE UL WAVES AND SFC FRONT. STILL ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD THAT DEEP
RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THE
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND LOWERING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS A TROUGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE DRY OR WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES FOR MONDAY,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY WATCHING MCS OVER LOWER MI. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WELL THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER, OR WHERE IT WILL END UP GOING.
HOWEVER, WITH ITS GENERAL DIRECTION, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WHERE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT, WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH STORMS AT FKL AND DUJ THIS MORNING. IF
COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER, WILL NEED RESTRICTIONS IN PORTS FURTHER
SOUTH. ONCE THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH A GENERAL VFR FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.
SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT LATER THIS MORNING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND
10 TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR MORNING MVFR HAZE. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ013-014-020>023-029-031-073-075.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021>023.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
SHRA CONTINUE OVER SUPERIOR AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI. A COLD-
POOL BUBBLE HIGH HAS FORMED OVER SUPERIOR...HELPING TO PUSH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPPER MI. TEMPS ARE NEAR 70F WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN UPPER. AN E-W SURFACE FRONT
CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH A
WEAK WAVE (1010MB) ALONG THE FRONT BACK NEAR LA CROSSE. THIS WAVE
MAY OR MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS IT SKIPS EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER DOWNSTATE OVERNIGHT.
TSRA ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN WI (WEST OF IRON MTN) IS TRYING TO
GATHER ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO TAKE A BIT OF A RIGHT HAND TURN.
SVR POTENTIAL HERE IN NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE HIGHER IF IT CAN
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE-WARD TOWARD THE TVC AREA INSTEAD OF EAST
TOWARD FAR NORTHERN LOWER. SURFACE AIRMASS IN THE LTL TRAV BAY
REGION IS ONLY GOING TO BECOME MORE STABLE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE GROUND. STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NW LOWER WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE...
THOUGH EVEN THERE THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL HAVE SOME STABILITY
TO BE OVERCOME. 20-25KT WEST 850MB WINDS...AND 40-45KT WEST 500MB
WINDS...WILL ASSIST IN GIVING STORMS SOME WINDS TO BRING
DOWN...AND SPEED SHEAR TO PROVIDE ORGANIZATION.
THERE/S ENOUGH FGEN FORCING AND OBVIOUS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO
WARRANT A BOOST IN POPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. SOUTH OF M-72 IN
PARTICULAR...THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS FAR FROM CERTAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LEAD AREA OF SHRA/FEW TSRA HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING
RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS IGNITED IN
THE LAST HOUR NEAR THE TWIN CITIES. WILL BE MONITORING TO SEE IF
THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY POSES A SVR THREAT TO PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MI FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND (PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK). UNTIL
THEN...WILL FRESHEN CLOUD/POP/WX FORECASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WILL SUM IT ALL UP QUICKLY: CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...DECENT...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINS
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...WISH IT WERE BETTER. INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING...AS TIGHT (AND TIGHTENING) THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES INTERACTS WITH EXCELLENT REMAINING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOISTURE SURGE. EARLIER WELL ORGANIZED
NORTHERN PLAINS MCS THIS MORNING A BYPRODUCT OF THESE FEATURES...
ALTHOUGH THIS HAS QUICKLY DECAYED WITH DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LOW
LEVEL JET. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST LAKES (ALREADY BEGINNING TO RAMP UP OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WITH RAP AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY SHOWING A WELL
ORGANIZED THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...COUPLED NICELY
WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES. ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THE
ABOVE AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THIS POTENTIAL...SPECIFICALLY
PLACEMENT OF STEADIER RAINS AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL (IF ANY).
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
LAKES THIS EVENING...AS REGION COMES UNDER THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...AND RENEWED SURGE
OF WARMTH/MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 850-750MB FGEN CIRCULATION
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AS A RESULT (ALMOST A CLASSIC COOL SEASON LOOK
TO IT)...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING INTENSE LIFT WARM CORE SIDE
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A DECENT AREA OF RAIN OVER THAT
AREA...SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT DOES
THE SAME. IN ADDITION...STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS FOR RENEWED MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS WEAKISH LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT SLOWLY BOWING NORTH ACROSS THE BADGER
STATE. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO (WEAK JET)...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY SYSTEM WILL RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE TO THE
NORTH...NAM-WRF MU CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2K J/KG OF CAPE
LIFTING A PARCEL FROM 800MB...SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND EVENT (ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM COLD POOLS CONGEAL). WHILE THIS
IS A LOW THREAT SCENARIO...HARD TO COMPLETELY IGNORE LATEST SPC
SLIGHT RISK STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS ALL
CONTINGENT ON WHAT CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. KINDA A WHAT
AND SEE APPROACH.
THE RELIEF BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS. STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING RAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
STABLE 5-WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE TO START WITH
ONE LEG OF TROUGHINESS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS CONFIGURATION THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS DOES DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE SHARPER
RIDGING BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICA PATTERN FLATTENS/DE-AMPLIFIES LATE NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING SOME HEAT TO RETURN TO THE REGION. UPSHOT TO ALL
THIS...WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE BIG TIME HEAT THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OF LATE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO CLIMB BACK UP LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS/SATURDAYS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
NRN LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE A QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WITH THAT SAID...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAKER MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGHINESS DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/COOLER AIR ALOFT...MIGHT RESULT IN A
LOW END SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY. CHANCES APPEAR MUCH TO LOW TO MUDDY
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...MID 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR HIGHS.
LATER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAKENING IN TIME. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY/
FLATTEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MIGRATE
BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT
A RETURN TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF LATE...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
A ROUND OF MORNING SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. TURNING SOLIDLY VFR AS SATURDAY PROCEEDS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT JUST DOWNSTATE WILL FINALLY
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH EARLY TODAY...PUSHED ALONG IN PART BY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FRONT. PLN WILL BE ENTERING
SHRA/TSRA AT TAF ISSUANCE OR JUST AFTER...APN WILL FOLLOW A FEW
HOURS LATER. TVC/MBL ARE LESS CERTAIN...POTENTIALLY TARGETED BY
SHORT LINES OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ESE-WARD FROM NE WI. JUST HAVE
VCTS INITIALLY FOR THOSE TAFS AFTER 08Z...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WELL AFTER.
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MI DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THRU THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LAKE BREEZE DOMINATE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TRACKS EAST OF US...WHILE ALSO
PRODUCING A SWATH OF RAIN...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST
MARYS RIVER SYSTEM...NO MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
SHRA CONTINUE OVER SUPERIOR AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI. A COLD-
POOL BUBBLE HIGH HAS FORMED OVER SUPERIOR...HELPING TO PUSH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPPER MI. TEMPS ARE NEAR 70F WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN UPPER. AN E-W SURFACE FRONT
CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH A
WEAK WAVE (1010MB) ALONG THE FRONT BACK NEAR LA CROSSE. THIS WAVE
MAY OR MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS IT SKIPS EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER DOWNSTATE OVERNIGHT.
TSRA ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN WI (WEST OF IRON MTN) IS TRYING TO
GATHER ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO TAKE A BIT OF A RIGHT HAND TURN.
SVR POTENTIAL HERE IN NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE HIGHER IF IT CAN
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE-WARD TOWARD THE TVC AREA INSTEAD OF EAST
TOWARD FAR NORTHERN LOWER. SURFACE AIRMASS IN THE LTL TRAV BAY
REGION IS ONLY GOING TO BECOME MORE STABLE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE GROUND. STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NW LOWER WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE...
THOUGH EVEN THERE THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL HAVE SOME STABILITY
TO BE OVERCOME. 20-25KT WEST 850MB WINDS...AND 40-45KT WEST 500MB
WINDS...WILL ASSIST IN GIVING STORMS SOME WINDS TO BRING
DOWN...AND SPEED SHEAR TO PROVIDE ORGANIZATION.
THERE/S ENOUGH FGEN FORCING AND OBVIOUS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO
WARRANT A BOOST IN POPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. SOUTH OF M-72 IN
PARTICULAR...THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS FAR FROM CERTAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LEAD AREA OF SHRA/FEW TSRA HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING
RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS IGNITED IN
THE LAST HOUR NEAR THE TWIN CITIES. WILL BE MONITORING TO SEE IF
THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY POSES A SVR THREAT TO PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MI FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND (PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK). UNTIL
THEN...WILL FRESHEN CLOUD/POP/WX FORECASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WILL SUM IT ALL UP QUICKLY: CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...DECENT...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINS
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...WISH IT WERE BETTER. INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING...AS TIGHT (AND TIGHTENING) THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES INTERACTS WITH EXCELLENT REMAINING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOISTURE SURGE. EARLIER WELL ORGANIZED
NORTHERN PLAINS MCS THIS MORNING A BYPRODUCT OF THESE FEATURES...
ALTHOUGH THIS HAS QUICKLY DECAYED WITH DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LOW
LEVEL JET. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST LAKES (ALREADY BEGINNING TO RAMP UP OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WITH RAP AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY SHOWING A WELL
ORGANIZED THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...COUPLED NICELY
WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES. ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THE
ABOVE AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THIS POTENTIAL...SPECIFICALLY
PLACEMENT OF STEADIER RAINS AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL (IF ANY).
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
LAKES THIS EVENING...AS REGION COMES UNDER THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...AND RENEWED SURGE
OF WARMTH/MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 850-750MB FGEN CIRCULATION
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AS A RESULT (ALMOST A CLASSIC COOL SEASON LOOK
TO IT)...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING INTENSE LIFT WARM CORE SIDE
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A DECENT AREA OF RAIN OVER THAT
AREA...SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT DOES
THE SAME. IN ADDITION...STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS FOR RENEWED MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS WEAKISH LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT SLOWLY BOWING NORTH ACROSS THE BADGER
STATE. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO (WEAK JET)...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY SYSTEM WILL RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE TO THE
NORTH...NAM-WRF MU CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2K J/KG OF CAPE
LIFTING A PARCEL FROM 800MB...SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND EVENT (ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM COLD POOLS CONGEAL). WHILE THIS
IS A LOW THREAT SCENARIO...HARD TO COMPLETELY IGNORE LATEST SPC
SLIGHT RISK STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS ALL
CONTINGENT ON WHAT CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. KINDA A WHAT
AND SEE APPROACH.
THE RELIEF BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS. STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING RAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
STABLE 5-WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE TO START WITH
ONE LEG OF TROUGHINESS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS CONFIGURATION THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS DOES DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE SHARPER
RIDGING BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICA PATTERN FLATTENS/DE-AMPLIFIES LATE NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING SOME HEAT TO RETURN TO THE REGION. UPSHOT TO ALL
THIS...WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE BIG TIME HEAT THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OF LATE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO CLIMB BACK UP LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS/SATURDAYS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
NRN LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE A QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WITH THAT SAID...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAKER MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGHINESS DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/COOLER AIR ALOFT...MIGHT RESULT IN A
LOW END SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY. CHANCES APPEAR MUCH TO LOW TO MUDDY
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...MID 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR HIGHS.
LATER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAKENING IN TIME. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY/
FLATTEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MIGRATE
BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT
A RETURN TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF LATE...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
VFR THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL LOWER/HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA.
THE HEAT WILL BREAK...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH
BEHIND IT. INITIAL AREA OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CROSSING UPPER MI
WILL STAY NORTH OF PLN. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE TWIN
CITIES AREA IN THE PAST HOUR...AND SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST TAFS SITES HAVE PERIODS OF VCTS OR TSRA IN
THEM LATE TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO LEFTOVER SHRA/-RA SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...AND MORE DETAILS
WILL BE ADDED TO TAFS AS SHRA/TSRA GET CLOSER. ALL SITES RETURN TO
SOLID VFR BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LAKE BREEZE DOMINATE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TRACKS EAST OF US...WHILE ALSO
PRODUCING A SWATH OF RAIN...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST
MARYS RIVER SYSTEM...NO MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
743 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LEAD AREA OF SHRA/FEW TSRA HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING
RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS IGNITED IN
THE LAST HOUR NEAR THE TWIN CITIES. WILL BE MONITORING TO SEE IF
THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY POSES A SVR THREAT TO PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MI FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND (PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK). UNTIL
THEN...WILL FRESHEN CLOUD/POP/WX FORECASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WILL SUM IT ALL UP QUICKLY: CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...DECENT...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINS
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...WISH IT WERE BETTER. INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING...AS TIGHT (AND TIGHTENING) THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES INTERACTS WITH EXCELLENT REMAINING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOISTURE SURGE. EARLIER WELL ORGANIZED
NORTHERN PLAINS MCS THIS MORNING A BYPRODUCT OF THESE FEATURES...
ALTHOUGH THIS HAS QUICKLY DECAYED WITH DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LOW
LEVEL JET. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST LAKES (ALREADY BEGINNING TO RAMP UP OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WITH RAP AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY SHOWING A WELL
ORGANIZED THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...COUPLED NICELY
WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES. ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THE
ABOVE AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THIS POTENTIAL...SPECIFICALLY
PLACEMENT OF STEADIER RAINS AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL (IF ANY).
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
LAKES THIS EVENING...AS REGION COMES UNDER THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...AND RENEWED SURGE
OF WARMTH/MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 850-750MB FGEN CIRCULATION
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AS A RESULT (ALMOST A CLASSIC COOL SEASON LOOK
TO IT)...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING INTENSE LIFT WARM CORE SIDE
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A DECENT AREA OF RAIN OVER THAT
AREA...SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT DOES
THE SAME. IN ADDITION...STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS FOR RENEWED MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS WEAKISH LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT SLOWLY BOWING NORTH ACROSS THE BADGER
STATE. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO (WEAK JET)...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY SYSTEM WILL RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE TO THE
NORTH...NAM-WRF MU CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2K J/KG OF CAPE
LIFTING A PARCEL FROM 800MB...SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND EVENT (ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM COLD POOLS CONGEAL). WHILE THIS
IS A LOW THREAT SCENARIO...HARD TO COMPLETELY IGNORE LATEST SPC
SLIGHT RISK STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS ALL
CONTINGENT ON WHAT CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. KINDA A WHAT
AND SEE APPROACH.
THE RELIEF BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS. STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING RAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
STABLE 5-WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE TO START WITH
ONE LEG OF TROUGHINESS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS CONFIGURATION THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS DOES DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE SHARPER
RIDGING BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICA PATTERN FLATTENS/DE-AMPLIFIES LATE NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING SOME HEAT TO RETURN TO THE REGION. UPSHOT TO ALL
THIS...WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE BIG TIME HEAT THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OF LATE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO CLIMB BACK UP LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS/SATURDAYS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
NRN LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE A QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WITH THAT SAID...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAKER MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGHINESS DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/COOLER AIR ALOFT...MIGHT RESULT IN A
LOW END SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY. CHANCES APPEAR MUCH TO LOW TO MUDDY
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...MID 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR HIGHS.
LATER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAKENING IN TIME. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY/
FLATTEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MIGRATE
BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT
A RETURN TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF LATE...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
VFR THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL LOWER/HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA.
THE HEAT WILL BREAK...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH
BEHIND IT. INITIAL AREA OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CROSSING UPPER MI
WILL STAY NORTH OF PLN. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE TWIN
CITIES AREA IN THE PAST HOUR...AND SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST TAFS SITES HAVE PERIODS OF VCTS OR TSRA IN
THEM LATE TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO LEFTOVER SHRA/-RA SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...AND MORE DETAILS
WILL BE ADDED TO TAFS AS SHRA/TSRA GET CLOSER. ALL SITES RETURN TO
SOLID VFR BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LAKE BREEZE DOMINATE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TRACKS EAST OF US...WHILE ALSO
PRODUCING A SWATH OF RAIN...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST
MARYS RIVER SYSTEM...NO MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
742 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LEAD AREA OF SHRA/FEW TSRA HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING
RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS INGNITED IN
THE LAST HOUR NEAR THE TWIN CITIES. WILL BE MOINTORING TO SEE IF
THIS ACTIVTY EVENTUALLY POSES A SVR THREAT TO PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MI FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WILL SUM IT ALL UP QUICKLY: CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...DECENT...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINS
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...WISH IT WERE BETTER. INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING...AS TIGHT (AND TIGHTENING) THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES INTERACTS WITH EXCELLENT REMAINING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOISTURE SURGE. EARLIER WELL ORGANIZED
NORTHERN PLAINS MCS THIS MORNING A BYPRODUCT OF THESE FEATURES...
ALTHOUGH THIS HAS QUICKLY DECAYED WITH DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LOW
LEVEL JET. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST LAKES (ALREADY BEGINNING TO RAMP UP OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WITH RAP AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY SHOWING A WELL
ORGANIZED THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...COUPLED NICELY
WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES. ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THE
ABOVE AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THIS POTENTIAL...SPECIFICALLY
PLACEMENT OF STEADIER RAINS AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL (IF ANY).
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
LAKES THIS EVENING...AS REGION COMES UNDER THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...AND RENEWED SURGE
OF WARMTH/MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 850-750MB FGEN CIRCULATION
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AS A RESULT (ALMOST A CLASSIC COOL SEASON LOOK
TO IT)...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING INTENSE LIFT WARM CORE SIDE
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A DECENT AREA OF RAIN OVER THAT
AREA...SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT DOES
THE SAME. IN ADDITION...STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS FOR RENEWED MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS WEAKISH LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT SLOWLY BOWING NORTH ACROSS THE BADGER
STATE. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO (WEAK JET)...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY SYSTEM WILL RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE TO THE
NORTH...NAM-WRF MU CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2K J/KG OF CAPE
LIFTING A PARCEL FROM 800MB...SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND EVENT (ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM COLD POOLS CONGEAL). WHILE THIS
IS A LOW THREAT SCENARIO...HARD TO COMPLETELY IGNORE LATEST SPC
SLIGHT RISK STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS ALL
CONTINGENT ON WHAT CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. KINDA A WHAT
AND SEE APPROACH.
THE RELIEF BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS. STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING RAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
STABLE 5-WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE TO START WITH
ONE LEG OF TROUGHINESS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS CONFIGURATION THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS DOES DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE SHARPER
RIDGING BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICA PATTERN FLATTENS/DE-AMPLIFIES LATE NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING SOME HEAT TO RETURN TO THE REGION. UPSHOT TO ALL
THIS...WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE BIG TIME HEAT THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OF LATE BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO CLIMB BACK UP LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS/SATURDAYS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
NRN LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE A QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WITH THAT SAID...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAKER MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGHINESS DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/COOLER AIR ALOFT...MIGHT RESULT IN A
LOW END SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY. CHANCES APPEAR MUCH TO LOW TO MUDDY
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...MID 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR HIGHS.
LATER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAKENING IN TIME. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY/
FLATTEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MIGRATE
BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT
A RETURN TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF LATE...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING
TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
VFR THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL LOWER/HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA.
THE HEAT WILL BREAK...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH
BEHIND IT. INITIAL AREA OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CROSSING UPPER MI
WILL STAY NORTH OF PLN. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE TWIN
CITIES AREA IN THE PAST HOUR...AND SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST TAFS SITES HAVE PERIODS OF VCTS OR TSRA IN
THEM LATE TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO LEFTOVER SHRA/-RA SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...AND MORE DETAILS
WILL BE ADDED TO TAFS AS SHRA/TSRA GET CLOSER. ALL SITES RETURN TO
SOLID VFR BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
LAKE BREEZE DOMINATE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TRACKS EAST OF US...WHILE ALSO
PRODUCING A SWATH OF RAIN...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST
MARYS RIVER SYSTEM...NO MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.DISCUSSION... (UPDATED)
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH 7 PM ON FRIDAY FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL AS WELL AS NEW RICHMOND AND CHIPPEWA
FALLS WISCONSIN. THIS IS BASICALLY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES ADDED ON TO
THE NORTH SIDE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY.
THE COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE IA/MN BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WI. DEW POINTS
HAVE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN CENTRAL MN WITH
KAXN AND KLXL SOME 25 DEGREES LOWER THEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY... MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DEW POINTS REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY BEFORE
THESE ARE FLUSHED OUT.
IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FORECAST AHEAD HAS SEVERAL CONCERNS. ONE
IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
REVOLVES AROUND THE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN AHEAD. THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SLOW NORTH
TONIGHT...STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH METRO TO WEST CENTRAL MN BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER BY DAYBREAK AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SCHEME.
IF THIS IS THE CASE...THE STORMS SHOULD DRIVE ON EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN FRIDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS HIGHS NOT REACHING TOO
FAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND AREAS ON NORTH. ON THE
OTHERHAND...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE STORMS WILL NOT BE THERE AND
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE METRO ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED ONE MORE
ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM ON FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT THE KEAU/AUGUSTA AREA AND THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL.
IF NO STORMS ARE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE RESPECTABLE ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE AND DCAPE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE PRIMARY
FACTOR AS WE HAVE SEEN TO OUR NORTH RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...THERE
SHOULD BE A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
MN ON FRIDAY AS STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG WITH
A RATHER STRONG SIGNAL SEEN IN THE DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE.
THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIPS WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED AS FAR
SOUTH AS KMKT EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
TSRA DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER...AND MOVES BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. ALL OTHER MPX TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BE SHRA/TSRA FREE UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD VCSH AT RWF AFT 20Z.
WITH THE LATER HRRR FORECASTING SHRA/TSRA NEAR RWF BY
20-22Z...THIS TAF MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WITH TSRA/VCTS AND CBS.
WILL SEE HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN BEFORE CHG ANYTHING. AS
FOR AXN/STC...AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD...AND A SUBTLE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS...AND SPREAD E/NE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN
AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE VCSH...AND PROB30 AFT 12Z FOR BOTH
STC/AXN. LATER SHIFTS CAN UPDATE HOW LOW CIGS/VSBYS GET BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. RNH/EAU WILL LIKELY BE SHRA/TSRA FREE UNTIL AFT
18Z/06. WNDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH...OR BECOME N/NNE THIS
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY EARLY AT STC/RWF/AXN. WNDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE/ENE OVERNIGHT...THEN E/SE AT RWF/RNH/EAU DURING
THE DAY.
MSP...KEPT TAF CLR OF SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AFT 9Z WHICH THE POTENTIAL
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD.
BEST POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA WILL COME AFT 00Z/07. WNDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTN...THEN SLOWLY BECOMING
ENE/E OVERNIGHT...THE SE/SW BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITE. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH
AFT 9Z DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
.FRIDAY EVENING...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS NE BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE
SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-MEEKER-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT.
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-
EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
POLK-RUSK.
&&
$$
RAH/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE IA/MN BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WI. DEW POINTS
HAVE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN CENTRAL MN WITH
KAXN AND KLXL SOME 25 DEGREES LOWER THEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY... MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DEW POINTS REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY BEFORE
THESE ARE FLUSHED OUT.
IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FORECAST AHEAD HAS SEVERAL CONCERNS. ONE
IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
REVOLVES AROUND THE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN AHEAD. THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SLOW NORTH
TONIGHT...STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH METRO TO WEST CENTRAL MN BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER BY DAYBREAK AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SCHEME.
IF THIS IS THE CASE...THE STORMS SHOULD DRIVE ON EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN FRIDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS HIGHS NOT REACHING TOO
FAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND AREAS ON NORTH. ON THE
OTHERHAND...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE STORMS WILL NOT BE THERE AND
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE METRO ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT THE KEAU/AUGUSTA AREA AND THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE SOUTH METRO. IN THE END...INCREASED THE
HIGH FOR KMSP TO 94 ON FRIDAY.
IF NO STORMS ARE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE RESPECTABLE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
DCAPE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR AS WE
HAVE SEEN TO OUR NORTH RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE A
RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS PASS ACROSS NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY
AS STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A RATHER
STRONG SIGNAL SEEN IN THE DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE.
THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIPS WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED AS FAR
SOUTH AS KMKT EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
TSRA DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER...AND MOVES BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. ALL OTHER MPX TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BE SHRA/TSRA FREE UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD VCSH AT RWF AFT 20Z.
WITH THE LATER HRRR FORECASTING SHRA/TSRA NEAR RWF BY
20-22Z...THIS TAF MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WITH TSRA/VCTS AND CBS.
WILL SEE HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN BEFORE CHG ANYTHING. AS
FOR AXN/STC...AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD...AND A SUBTLE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS...AND SPREAD E/NE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN
AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE VCSH...AND PROB30 AFT 12Z FOR BOTH
STC/AXN. LATER SHIFTS CAN UPDATE HOW LOW CIGS/VSBYS GET BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. RNH/EAU WILL LIKELY BE SHRA/TSRA FREE UNTIL AFT
18Z/06. WNDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH...OR BECOME N/NNE THIS
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY EARLY AT STC/RWF/AXN. WNDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE/ENE OVERNIGHT...THEN E/SE AT RWF/RNH/EAU DURING
THE DAY.
MSP...KEPT TAF CLR OF SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AFT 9Z WHICH THE POTENTIAL
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD.
BEST POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA WILL COME AFT 00Z/07. WNDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTN...THEN SLOWLY BECOMING
ENE/E OVERNIGHT...THE SE/SW BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITE. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH
AFT 9Z DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
.FRIDAY EVENING...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS NE BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
CARVER-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-MCLEOD-MEEKER-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR EAU CLAIRE-
PEPIN-PIERCE.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
RAH/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TSTMS...A FEW BORDERLINE SEVERE DEVELOPED IN PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS IN MOIST PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS S MN. ATMOS VERY UNSTABLE
IN MID LEVELS WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES WHERE AXIS OF K INDEX VALUES
AROUND 40. MOST OF THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION SHUD BE OVER BY 0900
AS 850 MB TROF MOVES THRU AREA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
BECOME DIRECTED MORE WNW TO ESE.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL AT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE THE ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING
PROGRESS OVERNITE AND CURRENTLY LIES FROM ARND DLH TO NEAR ULM.
BEGINNING TO SEE SURFACE DEW POINTS FALL ACROSS NW MN IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NICE SURFACE PRESSURE RISE AREA BEHIND FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH IT ALONG THIS MORNING...BUT PROGRESS SHOULD SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AS 500 MB HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL MN
TODAY WITH LOWER RH. THUS DROPPED THE THE HEAT WARNING ACROSS
ABOUT A DOZEN COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO WC MN. WITH FRONT
REBOUNDING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXTENDED THE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY ACROSS S MN
TOWARD EAU.
AIR MASS WILL VERY VERY UNSTABLE TODAY ACROSS S CWA WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 4000 J/KG. MID LEVEL TEMPS VERY WARM WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME CAPPING...BUT WITH ATMOS SO UNSTABLE AND BOUNDARY IN AREA ANY
STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.
SHOULD SEE TSTMS DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE DKTS AND THEN MOVE MAINLY
INTO CENTRAL MN IN INCREASING MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. VERY
IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL MN ON FRIDAY
WITH WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS S MN. WITH PWATS REBOUNDING TO
1.75 TO 2 INCHES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS S MN.
FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO S CWA AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS FIELD
BECOMES DIFFLUENT AND ORIENTED TOWARD THE SE ACROSS THAT AREA.
SEVERE THREAT CERTAINLY ALSO POSSIBLE WITH BOUNDARY PRESENT AND
INCREASING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
NAM/GFS DROP PCPN SE OF AREA BY MID DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO AREA...BUT ECMWF KEEPS PCPN GOING S AREAS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. TRIMMED BACK POPS N AREAS AS MOST AREAS SHOULD BE FAR ENUF
INTO NW FLOW TO MINIMIZE PCPN THREAT.
NW FLOW THEN CONTINUES FOR BALANCE OF FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHC OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED AS FAR
SOUTH AS KMKT EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
TSRA DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER...AND MOVES BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. ALL OTHER MPX TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BE SHRA/TSRA FREE UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD VCSH AT RWF AFT 20Z.
WITH THE LATER HRRR FORECASTING SHRA/TSRA NEAR RWF BY
20-22Z...THIS TAF MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WITH TSRA/VCTS AND CBS.
WILL SEE HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN BEFORE CHG ANYTHING. AS
FOR AXN/STC...AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD...AND A SUBTLE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS...AND SPREAD E/NE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN
AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE VCSH...AND PROB30 AFT 12Z FOR BOTH
STC/AXN. LATER SHIFTS CAN UPDATE HOW LOW CIGS/VSBYS GET BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. RNH/EAU WILL LIKELY BE SHRA/TSRA FREE UNTIL AFT
18Z/06. WNDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH...OR BECOME N/NNE THIS
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY EARLY AT STC/RWF/AXN. WNDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE/ENE OVERNIGHT...THEN E/SE AT RWF/RNH/EAU DURING
THE DAY.
MSP...KEPT TAF CLR OF SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AFT 9Z WHICH THE POTENTIAL
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD.
BEST POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA WILL COME AFT 00Z/07. WNDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTN...THEN SLOWLY BECOMING
ENE/E OVERNIGHT...THE SE/SW BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITE. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH
AFT 9Z DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
.FRIDAY EVENING...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS NE BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KT.
..JLT..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
CARVER-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-MCLEOD-MEEKER-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR EAU CLAIRE-
PEPIN-PIERCE.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
BAP/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND POPS TO MORE
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE GROWING TREND OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TODAY. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERAL EFFECTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS OUTLINED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS SW TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DUE TO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. A VERY LARGE UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM THIS LOW AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE OVER THE WESTERN US FROM THE CENTRAL US BLOCKING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL FLOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HEADED FOR EASTERN MONTANA. ALSO A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA IS HEADED NORTH TOWARDS MONTANA ALONG WITH
THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS COULD BECOME A PLAYER WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS TAKE THIS
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FEELING IS RIGHT NOW OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY. AS A MATTER OF FACT WITH THE 00Z
SOUNDING BEING SO DRY WE WILL NEED TO INCREASE MID LEVEL AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANY OF THE PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. STILL
MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THIS WILL HAPPEN BY 18Z. QPF TOTALS WILL
BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
A FEW ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT CALMS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE LARGE RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL HERALD THE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER THE WESTERN U.S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOK FOR HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER
ANY SHORTWAVES THAT TRAVEL OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THE RIDGE DROP A BIT SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT
WILL START BRINGING SHORTWAVES THROUGH MONTANA. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE WAVES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER TODAY
AS A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS CONTINUES TO FEED
INTO THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGDV AREA THIS
MORNING WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVES THROUGH SE MONTANA AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KGDV.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KGDV AND KGGW
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
JAMBA
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESURE IS IN CONTROL
ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SHIFTED NORTH AND WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. WIND SPEED WILL SUBSIDE SOME
TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANOTHER FM GROUP. WIND SPEED
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD NOON FRIDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTH. RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION A BIT IN THE FAR
NORTH...BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW VERY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR NEAR GRAND ISLAND. WE EVEN MEASURED
A FEW RATHER UNEXPECTED HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HERE AT THE WFO.
HAVE LINGERED A 20 PERCENT STORM CHANCE FOR ALL AREAS ALONG/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WELL BEFORE NOON. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONVECTION IS
RATHER WELL TIED TO THE EXIT CONVERGENT REGION OF A 30KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
FOCUS FARTHER NORTH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AS STATED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO CLEAN UP LINGERING POPS
FROM THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY REMOVE THE SLIGHT POP FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE
LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG HINTS AT A FEW STORMS FLARING UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...BUT AT THIS POINT AM NOT FULLY BUYING
INTO IT AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT A FEW -SHRAS TO SKIRT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BOTH CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR
10KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 18KTS BY 17Z...WITH ONLY
A FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CONCERNS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...AND CENTERED AROUND
HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A NOTABLE
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL GET UNDERWAY BY SATURDAY...WITH
AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE MIX AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR FIRE WEATHER INFO...PLEASE REFER TO THE
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN CO ACROSS WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB
INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY BREEZES AROUND 10
MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN KS ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF BREEZES AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING PRE-
DAWN TEMPERATURES WELL UP BETWEEN 73-80 MOST AREAS. AS WAS PRETTY
MUCH EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO...A NARROW AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARED
UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT AT LEAST
CLIPPING FAR WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY. EVEN AT THIS HOUR...THIS
FAIRLY WEAK STORM CLUSTER PERSISTS ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHWEST NEB
COUNTIES...BUT SAFELY OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALOFT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA PLACE THE HEART OF THE
EXPANSIVE CENTRAL CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MO...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE 40+KT 850MB
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TEAMING UP TO KEEP THE ONGOING SOUTHWEST NEB
STORMS GOING.
STARTING WITH THE FIRST FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...MADE A
LAST MINUTE DECISION REGARDING POPS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS LEND
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PUSHING BACK EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE
QPF/REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WHICH STILL SHOW STORMS POTENTIALLY CLIPPING PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. ADDING TO THE
DILEMMA...AS I TYPE THIS...BRAND NEW ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 6/I-80 CORRIDORS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE AN EXPANSION
OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MORE OF MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. NO MATTER WHAT...MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE...AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THE ONE WILD CARD FROM THE ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION IS
HOW MUCH...IF EVEN AT ALL...IT SLOWS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE KEEPING PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...NORTHERN AREAS MAY TEND TO STAY A BIT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO PULL
OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS FOCUSES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE NEB/SD BORDER. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFTING
BOUNDARY STILL SO CLOSE BY...AND FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING AS DEEP
MIXING COMMENCES...WILL LIKELY PLAY IT SAFE AND LET DAY SHIFT
DECIDE LATER THIS MORNING IF ITS SAFE TO FULLY PULL STORM MENTION
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. EVEN IF AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD CLIP THE
NORTH...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE IN SUCH A CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR
REGIME...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 50+ MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE
COMPLICATING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SLOWING THE WARM SURGE
IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY TEMPS TODAY
SHOULDN/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY GIVEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. THUS THE HIGH
TEMP GRID IS ESSENTIALLY A COPY-PASTE FROM YESTERDAY...WITH MOST
OF THE CWA INTO THE 100-105 RANGE...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 90S IN
NORTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS POLK/YORK WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD
HIGHER. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY
REACH THE 103-105 RANGE IN MANY AREAS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...AND IN ORDER TO
BETTER COLLABORATE WITH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEADLINES BY OAX AND LBF
OFFICES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A CWA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY NOT
ONLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALSO LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT OUT ALL STORM MENTION...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND ALSO LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS WELL TO THE NORTH
BY THEN...KEEPING THE BEST STORM CHANCES CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER
AND POINTS NORTH. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH
MOST AREAS BETWEEN 72-76...BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE A FEW DEGREES
TOO COOL IN SOME AREAS.
FOR FRIDAY...AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS ONCE AGAIN JUST
SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WON/T BE AT LEAST
AS HOT AS YESTERDAY/TODAY. IN FACT...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THAT
WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD BE
EVEN HOTTER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. TAKING THE MODEL AT FACE
VALUE...EVEN SEVERAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES COULD MAKE A RUN AT OR
EXCEED 105 DEGREES...WITH 105-108 COMMON IN KANSAS. OF
COURSE...THESE VERY HOT READINGS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON A MIXING OUT
OF DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY INTO THE 50S-LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH AM
NOT GOING FULL BORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION YET...DID BUMP UP HIGHS
FRIDAY 1-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO THE 100-104 RANGE. AS FOR STORM
CHANCES...LEFT THE ENTIRE DAY AND EVENING DRY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 06 NAM IS NOW BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR
TO WHAT JUST HAPPENED WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A
BIT OF A FAST OUTLIER ON THE SPEED OF THE INVADING BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF HANGING CONVECTION MOSTLY JUST OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NORTHWEST...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR CLIMBING CLOSER TO 30KT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON INTRODUCING ANY STORM MENTION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT THIS COULD BE INTRODUCED DURING THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES IF TRENDS HOLD. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR
NOT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE FIRST LEGITIMATE SUMMER
COLD FRONT IN AWHILE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS A COLD FRONT AT
LEAST HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGESTING
IT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS CWA-WIDE IN ITS WAKE. OBVIOUSLY THE
SPEED/STRENGTH OF THIS FRONTAL INVASION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPS...AND CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL FOR ONLY
BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. TAKING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...NUDGED DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...NOW CALLING FOR
HIGHS RANGING FROM ONLY UPPER 80S-LOW 90S IN NEB ZONES...AND MID-
UPPER 90S IN KS. IF THIS PANS OUT...WE SHOULD BE OFFICIALLY DONE
WITH THE PROLONGED ROUGHLY 10-DAY STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEAT. ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
SATURDAY...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED HERE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT DOES NOT PASS ALL THE WAY SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NAM SUGGESTS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME REALLY STARTS TO SHOW ITS HAND...AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES WEST TO OVER THE ROCKIES VERSUS THE
CURRENT CENTRAL/EASTERN PLAINS POSITION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST STORMS COULD IMPACT
PARTS OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT...AND HAVE RE-INTRODUCED A SLIGHT POP
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ANTICIPATED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...TO LINGER NEAR THE
KS/NE STATE LINES ON SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS TRACK THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND DUE TO THIS SLIGHT VARIATION IN
TIMING...DECIDED TO KEEP SOME SMALL MENTION OF POPS INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS PASSING BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH APPEAR VERY
MARGINAL...AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
WELCOME AS RAIN CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS MUCH AS 10C DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
ARE LOOKING AT. WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...SOME ANTICIPATED CLOUDS
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY RAINFALL...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. BESIDES LOWERING TEMPS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND TRIMMING
POPS A SMALL AMOUNT MONDAY AFTERNOON...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY TO BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20
MPH/GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL AGAIN PROMOTE AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FORMAL RED FLAG WARNING THIS
TIME AROUND...AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...DURING WHICH RED FLAG CRITERIA STRUGGLED TO
MATERIALIZE FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...IT COULD STILL BE A
CLOSE CALL...AND SOMETHING THAT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
DESPITE THE LACK OF A FORMAL RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS
TIME...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TURNING TO
FRIDAY...THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE GREATER FIRE CONCERNS ON THIS
DAY...AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SPREAD SUB-20 PERCENT
RH POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY INTO ALL AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-BELOIT LINE. IT APPEARS THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR EVENTUAL RED FLAG ISSUANCE COULD BE WIND SPEEDS...AS
CURRENTLY HAVE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSER TO 15 MPH VERSUS
20 MPH. IF WINDS WERE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 5 MPH HIGHER...WOULD
HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF AT LEAST A WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE INVASION OF A COOLER
AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER SHOULD
AT LEAST EASE UP THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH FIRE DANGER WE HAVE HAD
LATELY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1112 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTH. RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION A BIT IN THE FAR
NORTH...BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW VERY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR NEAR GRAND ISLAND. WE EVEN MEASURED
A FEW RATHER UNEXPECTED HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HERE AT THE WFO.
HAVE LINGERED A 20 PERCENT STORM CHANCE FOR ALL AREAS ALONG/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WELL BEFORE NOON. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONVECTION IS
RATHER WELL TIED TO THE EXIT CONVERGENT REGION OF A 30KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
FOCUS FARTHER NORTH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AS STATED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO CLEAN UP LINGERING POPS
FROM THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY REMOVE THE SLIGHT POP FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE
LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG HINTS AT A FEW STORMS FLARING UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...BUT AT THIS POINT AM NOT FULLY BUYING
INTO IT AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT A FEW -SHRAS TO SKIRT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BOTH CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR
10KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 18KTS BY 17Z...WITH ONLY
A FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CONCERNS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...AND CENTERED AROUND
HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A NOTABLE
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL GET UNDERWAY BY SATURDAY...WITH
AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE MIX AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR FIRE WEATHER INFO...PLEASE REFER TO THE
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN CO ACROSS WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB
INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY BREEZES AROUND 10
MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN KS ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF BREEZES AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING PRE-
DAWN TEMPERATURES WELL UP BETWEEN 73-80 MOST AREAS. AS WAS PRETTY
MUCH EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO...A NARROW AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARED
UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT AT LEAST
CLIPPING FAR WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY. EVEN AT THIS HOUR...THIS
FAIRLY WEAK STORM CLUSTER PERSISTS ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHWEST NEB
COUNTIES...BUT SAFELY OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALOFT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA PLACE THE HEART OF THE
EXPANSIVE CENTRAL CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MO...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE 40+KT 850MB
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TEAMING UP TO KEEP THE ONGOING SOUTHWEST NEB
STORMS GOING.
STARTING WITH THE FIRST FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...MADE A
LAST MINUTE DECISION REGARDING POPS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS LEND
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PUSHING BACK EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE
QPF/REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WHICH STILL SHOW STORMS POTENTIALLY CLIPPING PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. ADDING TO THE
DILEMMA...AS I TYPE THIS...BRAND NEW ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 6/I-80 CORRIDORS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE AN EXPANSION
OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MORE OF MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. NO MATTER WHAT...MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE...AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THE ONE WILD CARD FROM THE ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION IS
HOW MUCH...IF EVEN AT ALL...IT SLOWS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE KEEPING PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...NORTHERN AREAS MAY TEND TO STAY A BIT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO PULL
OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS FOCUSES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE NEB/SD BORDER. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFTING
BOUNDARY STILL SO CLOSE BY...AND FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING AS DEEP
MIXING COMMENCES...WILL LIKELY PLAY IT SAFE AND LET DAY SHIFT
DECIDE LATER THIS MORNING IF ITS SAFE TO FULLY PULL STORM MENTION
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. EVEN IF AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD CLIP THE
NORTH...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE IN SUCH A CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR
REGIME...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 50+ MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE
COMPLICATING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SLOWING THE WARM SURGE
IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY TEMPS TODAY
SHOULDN/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY GIVEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. THUS THE HIGH
TEMP GRID IS ESSENTIALLY A COPY-PASTE FROM YESTERDAY...WITH MOST
OF THE CWA INTO THE 100-105 RANGE...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 90S IN
NORTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS POLK/YORK WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD
HIGHER. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY
REACH THE 103-105 RANGE IN MANY AREAS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...AND IN ORDER TO
BETTER COLLABORATE WITH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEADLINES BY OAX AND LBF
OFFICES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A CWA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY NOT
ONLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALSO LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT OUT ALL STORM MENTION...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND ALSO LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS WELL TO THE NORTH
BY THEN...KEEPING THE BEST STORM CHANCES CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER
AND POINTS NORTH. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH
MOST AREAS BETWEEN 72-76...BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE A FEW DEGREES
TOO COOL IN SOME AREAS.
FOR FRIDAY...AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS ONCE AGAIN JUST
SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WON/T BE AT LEAST
AS HOT AS YESTERDAY/TODAY. IN FACT...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THAT
WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD BE
EVEN HOTTER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. TAKING THE MODEL AT FACE
VALUE...EVEN SEVERAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES COULD MAKE A RUN AT OR
EXCEED 105 DEGREES...WITH 105-108 COMMON IN KANSAS. OF
COURSE...THESE VERY HOT READINGS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON A MIXING OUT
OF DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY INTO THE 50S-LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH AM
NOT GOING FULL BORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION YET...DID BUMP UP HIGHS
FRIDAY 1-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO THE 100-104 RANGE. AS FOR STORM
CHANCES...LEFT THE ENTIRE DAY AND EVENING DRY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 06 NAM IS NOW BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR
TO WHAT JUST HAPPENED WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A
BIT OF A FAST OUTLIER ON THE SPEED OF THE INVADING BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF HANGING CONVECTION MOSTLY JUST OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NORTHWEST...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR CLIMBING CLOSER TO 30KT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON INTRODUCING ANY STORM MENTION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT THIS COULD BE INTRODUCED DURING THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES IF TRENDS HOLD. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR
NOT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE FIRST LEGITIMATE SUMMER
COLD FRONT IN AWHILE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS A COLD FRONT AT
LEAST HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGESTING
IT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS CWA-WIDE IN ITS WAKE. OBVIOUSLY THE
SPEED/STRENGTH OF THIS FRONTAL INVASION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPS...AND CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL FOR ONLY
BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. TAKING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...NUDGED DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...NOW CALLING FOR
HIGHS RANGING FROM ONLY UPPER 80S-LOW 90S IN NEB ZONES...AND MID-
UPPER 90S IN KS. IF THIS PANS OUT...WE SHOULD BE OFFICIALLY DONE
WITH THE PROLONGED ROUGHLY 10-DAY STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEAT. ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
SATURDAY...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED HERE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT DOES NOT PASS ALL THE WAY SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NAM SUGGESTS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME REALLY STARTS TO SHOW ITS HAND...AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES WEST TO OVER THE ROCKIES VERSUS THE
CURRENT CENTRAL/EASTERN PLAINS POSITION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST STORMS COULD IMPACT
PARTS OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT...AND HAVE RE-INTRODUCED A SLIGHT POP
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ANTICIPATED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...TO LINGER NEAR THE
KS/NE STATE LINES ON SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS TRACK THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND DUE TO THIS SLIGHT VARIATION IN
TIMING...DECIDED TO KEEP SOME SMALL MENTION OF POPS INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS PASSING BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH APPEAR VERY
MARGINAL...AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
WELCOME AS RAIN CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS MUCH AS 10C DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
ARE LOOKING AT. WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...SOME ANTICIPATED CLOUDS
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY RAINFALL...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. BESIDES LOWERING TEMPS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND TRIMMING
POPS A SMALL AMOUNT MONDAY AFTERNOON...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY TO BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20
MPH/GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL AGAIN PROMOTE AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FORMAL RED FLAG WARNING THIS
TIME AROUND...AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...DURING WHICH RED FLAG CRITERIA STRUGGLED TO
MATERIALIZE FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...IT COULD STILL BE A
CLOSE CALL...AND SOMETHING THAT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
DESPITE THE LACK OF A FORMAL RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS
TIME...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TURNING TO
FRIDAY...THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE GREATER FIRE CONCERNS ON THIS
DAY...AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SPREAD SUB-20 PERCENT
RH POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY INTO ALL AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-BELOIT LINE. IT APPEARS THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR EVENTUAL RED FLAG ISSUANCE COULD BE WIND SPEEDS...AS
CURRENTLY HAVE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSER TO 15 MPH VERSUS
20 MPH. IF WINDS WERE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 5 MPH HIGHER...WOULD
HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF AT LEAST A WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE INVASION OF A COOLER
AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER SHOULD
AT LEAST EASE UP THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH FIRE DANGER WE HAVE HAD
LATELY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SECOND UPDATE...HEINLEIN
FIRST UPDATE/SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
643 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A FEW VERY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR NEAR GRAND ISLAND. WE EVEN MEASURED
A FEW RATHER UNEXPECTED HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HERE AT THE WFO.
HAVE LINGERED A 20 PERCENT STORM CHANCE FOR ALL AREAS ALONG/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WELL BEFORE NOON. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONVECTION IS
RATHER WELL TIED TO THE EXIT CONVERGENT REGION OF A 30KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
FOCUS FARTHER NORTH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AS STATED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO CLEAN UP LINGERING POPS
FROM THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY REMOVE THE SLIGHT POP FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE
LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG HINTS AT A FEW STORMS FLARING UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...BUT AT THIS POINT AM NOT FULLY BUYING
INTO IT AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT A FEW -SHRAS TO SKIRT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BOTH CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR
10KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 18KTS BY 17Z...WITH ONLY
A FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CONCERNS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...AND CENTERED AROUND
HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A NOTABLE
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL GET UNDERWAY BY SATURDAY...WITH
AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE MIX AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR FIRE WEATHER INFO...PLEASE REFER TO THE
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN CO ACROSS WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB
INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY BREEZES AROUND 10
MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN KS ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF BREEZES AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING PRE-
DAWN TEMPERATURES WELL UP BETWEEN 73-80 MOST AREAS. AS WAS PRETTY
MUCH EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO...A NARROW AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARED
UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT AT LEAST
CLIPPING FAR WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY. EVEN AT THIS HOUR...THIS
FAIRLY WEAK STORM CLUSTER PERSISTS ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHWEST NEB
COUNTIES...BUT SAFELY OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALOFT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA PLACE THE HEART OF THE
EXPANSIVE CENTRAL CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MO...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE 40+KT 850MB
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TEAMING UP TO KEEP THE ONGOING SOUTHWEST NEB
STORMS GOING.
STARTING WITH THE FIRST FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...MADE A
LAST MINUTE DECISION REGARDING POPS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS LEND
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PUSHING BACK EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE
QPF/REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WHICH STILL SHOW STORMS POTENTIALLY CLIPPING PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. ADDING TO THE
DILEMMA...AS I TYPE THIS...BRAND NEW ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 6/I-80 CORRIDORS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE AN EXPANSION
OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MORE OF MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. NO MATTER WHAT...MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE...AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THE ONE WILD CARD FROM THE ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION IS
HOW MUCH...IF EVEN AT ALL...IT SLOWS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE KEEPING PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...NORTHERN AREAS MAY TEND TO STAY A BIT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO PULL
OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS FOCUSES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE NEB/SD BORDER. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFTING
BOUNDARY STILL SO CLOSE BY...AND FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING AS DEEP
MIXING COMMENCES...WILL LIKELY PLAY IT SAFE AND LET DAY SHIFT
DECIDE LATER THIS MORNING IF ITS SAFE TO FULLY PULL STORM MENTION
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. EVEN IF AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD CLIP THE
NORTH...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE IN SUCH A CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR
REGIME...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 50+ MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE
COMPLICATING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SLOWING THE WARM SURGE
IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY TEMPS TODAY
SHOULDN/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY GIVEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. THUS THE HIGH
TEMP GRID IS ESSENTIALLY A COPY-PASTE FROM YESTERDAY...WITH MOST
OF THE CWA INTO THE 100-105 RANGE...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 90S IN
NORTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS POLK/YORK WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD
HIGHER. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY
REACH THE 103-105 RANGE IN MANY AREAS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...AND IN ORDER TO
BETTER COLLABORATE WITH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEADLINES BY OAX AND LBF
OFFICES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A CWA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY NOT
ONLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALSO LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT OUT ALL STORM MENTION...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND ALSO LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS WELL TO THE NORTH
BY THEN...KEEPING THE BEST STORM CHANCES CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER
AND POINTS NORTH. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH
MOST AREAS BETWEEN 72-76...BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE A FEW DEGREES
TOO COOL IN SOME AREAS.
FOR FRIDAY...AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS ONCE AGAIN JUST
SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WON/T BE AT LEAST
AS HOT AS YESTERDAY/TODAY. IN FACT...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THAT
WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD BE
EVEN HOTTER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. TAKING THE MODEL AT FACE
VALUE...EVEN SEVERAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES COULD MAKE A RUN AT OR
EXCEED 105 DEGREES...WITH 105-108 COMMON IN KANSAS. OF
COURSE...THESE VERY HOT READINGS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON A MIXING OUT
OF DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY INTO THE 50S-LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH AM
NOT GOING FULL BORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION YET...DID BUMP UP HIGHS
FRIDAY 1-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO THE 100-104 RANGE. AS FOR STORM
CHANCES...LEFT THE ENTIRE DAY AND EVENING DRY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 06 NAM IS NOW BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR
TO WHAT JUST HAPPENED WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A
BIT OF A FAST OUTLIER ON THE SPEED OF THE INVADING BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF HANGING CONVECTION MOSTLY JUST OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NORTHWEST...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR CLIMBING CLOSER TO 30KT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON INTRODUCING ANY STORM MENTION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT THIS COULD BE INTRODUCED DURING THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES IF TRENDS HOLD. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR
NOT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE FIRST LEGITIMATE SUMMER
COLD FRONT IN AWHILE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS A COLD FRONT AT
LEAST HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGESTING
IT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS CWA-WIDE IN ITS WAKE. OBVIOUSLY THE
SPEED/STRENGTH OF THIS FRONTAL INVASION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPS...AND CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL FOR ONLY
BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. TAKING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...NUDGED DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...NOW CALLING FOR
HIGHS RANGING FROM ONLY UPPER 80S-LOW 90S IN NEB ZONES...AND MID-
UPPER 90S IN KS. IF THIS PANS OUT...WE SHOULD BE OFFICIALLY DONE
WITH THE PROLONGED ROUGHLY 10-DAY STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEAT. ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
SATURDAY...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED HERE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT DOES NOT PASS ALL THE WAY SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NAM SUGGESTS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME REALLY STARTS TO SHOW ITS HAND...AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES WEST TO OVER THE ROCKIES VERSUS THE
CURRENT CENTRAL/EASTERN PLAINS POSITION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST STORMS COULD IMPACT
PARTS OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT...AND HAVE RE-INTRODUCED A SLIGHT POP
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ANTICIPATED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...TO LINGER NEAR THE
KS/NE STATE LINES ON SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS TRACK THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND DUE TO THIS SLIGHT VARIATION IN
TIMING...DECIDED TO KEEP SOME SMALL MENTION OF POPS INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS PASSING BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH APPEAR VERY
MARGINAL...AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
WELCOME AS RAIN CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS MUCH AS 10C DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
ARE LOOKING AT. WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...SOME ANTICIPATED CLOUDS
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY RAINFALL...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. BESIDES LOWERING TEMPS A BIT ON SUNDAY AND TRIMMING
POPS A SMALL AMOUNT MONDAY AFTERNOON...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY TO BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20
MPH/GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL AGAIN PROMOTE AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FORMAL RED FLAG WARNING THIS
TIME AROUND...AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...DURING WHICH RED FLAG CRITERIA STRUGGLED TO
MATERIALIZE FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...IT COULD STILL BE A
CLOSE CALL...AND SOMETHING THAT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
DESPITE THE LACK OF A FORMAL RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS
TIME...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TURNING TO
FRIDAY...THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE GREATER FIRE CONCERNS ON THIS
DAY...AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SPREAD SUB-20 PERCENT
RH POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY INTO ALL AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-BELOIT LINE. IT APPEARS THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR EVENTUAL RED FLAG ISSUANCE COULD BE WIND SPEEDS...AS
CURRENTLY HAVE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSER TO 15 MPH VERSUS
20 MPH. IF WINDS WERE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 5 MPH HIGHER...WOULD
HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF AT LEAST A WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE INVASION OF A COOLER
AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER SHOULD
AT LEAST EASE UP THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH FIRE DANGER WE HAVE HAD
LATELY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE/SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KIML TO KLBF TO KBBW THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. STRONG ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY TSRA PREVAILING AT KLBF
TAF SITE THROUGH 0508Z. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR KOGA TO KTIF TO NEAR
KANW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE SLOW MOVING TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN
AND THIS EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HEAT BURSTS. THE HRRR INDICATES
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SUPPORTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
MERGE WITH ACTIVITY FCST TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH COLO AND INTO KS
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS MOTHER NATURE
HAS ITS OWN FIRE WORKS SHOW PLANNED THIS EVENING AND VERY DRY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING FOR ANYONE ATTENDING OUTDOOR EVENTS THIS EVENING.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 100S ONCE AGAIN. NORTH OF THE FRONT ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING NORTH AROUND
THE H500 MB RIDGE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
PRODUCING VERY WARM HIGHS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE NAM SUGGESTED
106 AT KONL AND THIS MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE MARK. FOR NOW
WILL FCST 104 AT KONL. NO PROBLEM WITH THE 102 FCST BY THE NAM AT
KLBF FOR FRIDAY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN...105 AT KLBF
SO FAR...LATER FCSTS MAY HAVE TO MARK UP HIGHS FRIDAY. THE NAM AND
ECM ARE VERY DRY WITH THIS FRONT AND THE FCST FOLLOWS THE DRIER
SOLNS. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CNTL MISSOURI IS
FCST BUILD SLOWLY WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER
UTAH BY MONDAY SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE
FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FCST AREA AND INTO KS FRIDAY FOR A SEMI PERMANENT COOL DOWN
LASTING SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SEVERAL KEY
INGREDIENTS COULD CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE RAIN. THEY ARE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW...LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT PRODUCING A WEAKER CAP
AND THE VERY UNCERTAIN POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE DAILY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECM AND
GFS SUGGESTED THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THIS IS THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW OF 100 PLUS TEMPERATURES AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS STREAK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD RIVAL THE GREAT HEAT WAVES OF 1934 (13 DAYS)...1935 (5
DAYS)...1936 (6 DAYS) AND 1955 (5 DAYS).
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HEAT HAS RETURNED TODAY THAT WILL LAST INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER ARE FORESEEN MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING...ONLY MINOR COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
WX EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT UPPER CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MCS SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT WARM EARLY
MORNING LOWS WITH READINGS LARGELY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
750 PM UPDATE...
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER CI
OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM UPSTREAM SHWR/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH UPPER MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS FAR WEST AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BE WITH US FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. CLOSER TO HOME..MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON. IN
ITS VICINITY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS PRESENT WHERE DEWPOINTS
LARGELY RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...FCST MODELS TO INCLUDE THE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST
SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD COVER ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBLE INFLUX OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...VALLEY FOG FORMATION
REMAINS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT. CONSIDERING HOW DRY NEAR
SOIL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY...FEEL ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY IN NATURE.
ASIDE FROM THAT...FCST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. NEWLY ARRIVING 00Z WRF HOLDS
OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND THEN SLOWLY DEVELOPS
SHWRS/STORMS AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE LINE BY 00Z.
MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR WHICH APPEARS TO PREVENT THINGS FROM
GOING SOONER IS THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INTO THE BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THAT SAID...ANY APPRECIABLE
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE MISSING WITH NO REALLY
DEFINABLE H50 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. IN FACT...THE NEW WRF REALLY GETS
THINGS GOING TOWARDS 00Z AFTER A H70 WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOWEVER AS ANY MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONGOING NORTHERN LAKES CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE
AS A FORCING MECHANISM TO GET THINGS GOING A BIT EARLIER. DESPITE
THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY...UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS STILL SUPPORT
POSSIBLE SEVERE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN ALONG WITH FAIRLY HEALTHY RESERVOIR OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
00Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. DESPITE THIS...LATER SHOW AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NEW 00Z WRF WOULD SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH 06Z. OBVIOUSLY MANY
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AND IT PROMISES TO BE AN
INTERESTING SHIFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT CREW.
330 PM UPDATE... SATURDAY WILL BE SQUEEZED AS A COLD FRONT WITH
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE MORNING. IN THIS AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. IN NE PA
AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THIS AREA WILL BE WARMER TODAY AND WILL BE
CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDEXES OF 100 IN THE
VALLEYS. PUT OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE AND
SULLIVAN FOR SAT AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
MAY HAVE TO ADD ELMIRA AND TOWANDA TO THIS. RIGHT NOW STILL HAVE
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S IN THE TWIN TIERS. DEWPOINTS ENTIRE AREA
REMAIN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S BUT COULD GO HIGHER JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
TIMING OF THE FRONT SIMILAR BRINGING IT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
CONVECTION WITH IT AND BEHIND IT. WITH THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CAPE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 2K IN THE FAR SOUTH. ACROSS THE
TWIN TIERS LESS CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR. IN THIS AREA 0 TO 1KM
SHEAR 25 KTS AND 0 TO 6KM IS 40 KTS. THIS IS GOOD FOR JULY. MOST
OF THE SHEAR IS SPEED SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW.
CONVECTION WILL FORM IN UPSTATE NY AND BUILD AS IT MOVES SE
THROUGH NE PA IN THE AFTN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SPC STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NY AND ALL
OF NE PA IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWING LATE SAT AND SUN AS IT HITS THE EVEN
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LOW CHC TO SCHC
POPS WILL CONTINUE SAT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOSTLY FOR NE PA AND
SULLIVAN NY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL LITTLE SAT NGT BUT HIGHS SUNDAY ON
WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE L80S AND U70S. SUN NGT LESS HUMID AIR
COMES IN CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 50S. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NE US WILL CONT TO ESCAPE THE WORST OF THE HEAT...CONTD INTO THE
XTNDD PD. BROAD TROF OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE US AND ERN CANADA
WILL KEEP A NW FLOW OF COOL AIR...AND THE SFC BDNRY WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. SHRT WV DROPPING IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISLTD SHWRS AND TRWS LATE IN THE PD...BUT IN
GNRL...CONDS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL BE VERY NEAR NRML THRU
THE PD...BUT CREEPING UPWARD LATE AS THE TROF BEGINS TO FILL AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST THIS EVENING AS MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS REGARDING VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z. LATEST LOOK AT
UPSTREAM SFC PRESSURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF LAKE HURON...WITH CORRESPONDING
DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MOST FCST MODELS
SUGGEST SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH WOULD PUT A DAMPER ON VALLEY FOG FORMATION. THAT SAID...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP ALL SUGGEST DEVELOPING MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW...BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND
EXPANDING CLOUD COVER ALOFT...HAVE TRENDED INHERITED FCST UP AT
MOST SITES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION MVFR VIS AT ELM AFTER 08Z HOWEVER
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY POOR. IF IFR CONDITIONS WERE TO
FORM...CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS A VERY SHORT WINDOW WOULD EXIST
FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
SHIFTING GEARS...NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
AFTER 18Z. FCST MODELS ALL AGREE IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL NY/NE PA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THE CLOSER IT GETS TO THE NY/PA STATE LINE. FOR
NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SYR AND
RME WITH TEMPO TSRA ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z. FOR SYR AND RME...FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION
MAINLY EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES AND POINTS
SOUTH...TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT (AFTER 00Z)...LINGERING SHWRS/STORMS ACROSS NE PA WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS AT AVP THROUGH 03Z. AFTER 06Z...DEVELOPING
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ELM/BGM/ITH/AVP.
SUN THRU WED...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR KBGM AND KSYR RECORDS...AND AT LEAST
APPROACHED WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF KAVP.
BINGHAMTON DAILY RECORD HIGH TODAY 92/1988...FORECAST 90
SYRACUSE DAILY RECORD HIGH TODAY 94/2010, 1993, 1935...FORECAST 94
AVOCA DAILY RECORD HIGH TODAY 98/1941...FORECAST 94
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ044-047-
048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECT MAINLY A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA NOW IS NOT DOING MUCH TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND SLIDE OVER NORTHEASTERN VERMONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS AROUND 1000
J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER CAP REMAINS IN
PLACE AND STABILITY WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT SO ANY CHANCE WE HAD OF
A THUNDERSTORM HAS ENDED. OTHERWISE...REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO
MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
SATURDAY AND WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE END
RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES /UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...LOOKING AT A
STRETCH OF OUTSTANDING MID-SUMMER WEATHER. POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES EACH DAY...AND ALSO SOME
OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG EACH EVENING ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
DRY...THOUGH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH
BRINGS WITH IT THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY NOT BE WORKING WITH MUCH MOISTURE
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYNESS PRECEDING IT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT
CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL FOR OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE ONLY HINTED AT
3SM BR SCT001 AT SLK AND MPV (IN CONTRAST TO THE LONG-LIVED IFR FOG
OBSERVED AT THOSE LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT). WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW BRINGS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LIMITED TO VCSH AT
MSS/SLK/RUT WHERE PROBABILITY OF SEEING SHOWERS IS HIGHEST
(GENERALLY 12-18Z MSS/SLK...WITH LONGER TIME FRAME OF POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AT KRUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY). CEILINGS (BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS) LOWER 5-8 KFT ALL TAF SITES BY 13Z SATURDAY...BUT
AGAIN LOOKING AT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED
RAIN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ANY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
WEAKEN/MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY
NWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR POSSIBLE OWING TO
BR/FG AT KSLK/KMPV MON-WED MORNINGS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECT MAINLY A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA NOW IS NOT DOING MUCH TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND SLIDE OVER NORTHEASTERN VERMONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS AROUND 1000
J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER CAP REMAINS IN
PLACE AND STABILITY WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT SO ANY CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM WE HAD HAS ENDED. OTHERWISE...REMNANTS OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO
MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
SATURDAY AND WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE END
RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES /UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...LOOKING AT A
STRETCH OF OUTSTANDING MID-SUMMER WEATHER. POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES EACH DAY...AND ALSO SOME
OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG EACH EVENING ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
DRY...THOUGH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH
BRINGS WITH IT THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY NOT BE WORKING WITH MUCH MOISTURE
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYNESS PRECEDING IT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT
CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL FOR OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE ONLY HINTED AT
3SM BR SCT001 AT SLK AND MPV (IN CONTRAST TO THE LONG-LIVED IFR FOG
OBSERVED AT THOSE LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT). WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW BRINGS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LIMITED TO VCSH AT
MSS/SLK/RUT WHERE PROBABILITY OF SEEING SHOWERS IS HIGHEST
(GENERALLY 12-18Z MSS/SLK...WITH LONGER TIME FRAME OF POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AT KRUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY). CEILINGS (BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS) LOWER 5-8 KFT ALL TAF SITES BY 13Z SATURDAY...BUT
AGAIN LOOKING AT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED
RAIN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ANY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
WEAKEN/MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY
NWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR POSSIBLE OWING TO
BR/FG AT KSLK/KMPV MON-WED MORNINGS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
816 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HEAT HAS RETURNED TODAY THAT WILL LAST INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER ARE FORESEEN MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
750 PM UPDATE...
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER CI
OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM UPSTREAM SHWR/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH UPPER MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS FAR WEST AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BE WITH US FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. CLOSER TO HOME..MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON. IN
ITS VICINITY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS PRESENT WHERE DEWPOINTS
LARGELY RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...FCST MODELS TO INCLUDE THE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST
SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD COVER ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBLE INFLUX OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...VALLEY FOG FORMATION
REMAINS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT. CONSIDERING HOW DRY NEAR
SOIL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY...FEEL ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY IN NATURE.
ASIDE FROM THAT...FCST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE SQUEEZED AS A COLD FRONT WITH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING. IN THIS AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. IN NE PA AND
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THIS AREA WILL BE WARMER TODAY AND WILL BE
CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDEXES OF 100 IN THE
VALLEYS. PUT OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE AND
SULLIVAN FOR SAT AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
MAY HAVE TO ADD ELMIRA AND TOWANDA TO THIS. RIGHT NOW STILL HAVE
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S IN THE TWIN TIERS. DEWPOINTS ENTIRE AREA
REMAIN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S BUT COULD GO HIGHER JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
TIMING OF THE FRONT SIMILAR BRINGING IT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
CONVECTION WITH IT AND BEHIND IT. WITH THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CAPE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 2K IN THE FAR SOUTH. ACROSS THE
TWIN TIERS LESS CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR. IN THIS AREA 0 TO 1KM
SHEAR 25 KTS AND 0 TO 6KM IS 40 KTS. THIS IS GOOD FOR JULY. MOST
OF THE SHEAR IS SPEED SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW.
CONVECTION WILL FORM IN UPSTATE NY AND BUILD AS IT MOVES SE
THROUGH NE PA IN THE AFTN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SPC STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NY AND ALL
OF NE PA IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWING LATE SAT AND SUN AS IT HITS THE EVEN
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LOW CHC TO SCHC
POPS WILL CONTINUE SAT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOSTLY FOR NE PA AND
SULLIVAN NY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL LITTLE SAT NGT BUT HIGHS SUNDAY ON
WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE L80S AND U70S. SUN NGT LESS HUMID AIR
COMES IN CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 50S. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NE US WILL CONT TO ESCAPE THE WORST OF THE HEAT...CONTD INTO THE
XTNDD PD. BROAD TROF OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE US AND ERN CANADA
WILL KEEP A NW FLOW OF COOL AIR...AND THE SFC BDNRY WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. SHRT WV DROPPING IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISLTD SHWRS AND TRWS LATE IN THE PD...BUT IN
GNRL...CONDS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL BE VERY NEAR NRML THRU
THE PD...BUT CREEPING UPWARD LATE AS THE TROF BEGINS TO FILL AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST THIS EVENING AS MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS REGARDING VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z. LATEST LOOK AT
UPSTREAM SFC PRESSURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF LAKE HURON...WITH CORRESPONDING
DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MOST FCST MODELS
SUGGEST SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH WOULD PUT A DAMPER ON VALLEY FOG FORMATION. THAT SAID...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP ALL SUGGEST DEVELOPING MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW...BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS AND
EXPANDING CLOUD COVER ALOFT...HAVE TRENDED INHERITED FCST UP AT
MOST SITES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION MVFR VIS AT ELM AFTER 08Z HOWEVER
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY POOR. IF IFR CONDITIONS WERE TO
FORM...CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS A VERY SHORT WINDOW WOULD EXIST
FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
SHIFTING GEARS...NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
AFTER 18Z. FCST MODELS ALL AGREE IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL NY/NE PA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THE CLOSER IT GETS TO THE NY/PA STATE LINE. FOR
NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SYR AND
RME WITH TEMPO TSRA ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z. FOR SYR AND RME...FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION
MAINLY EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES AND POINTS
SOUTH...TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT (AFTER 00Z)...LINGERING SHWRS/STORMS ACROSS NE PA WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS AT AVP THROUGH 03Z. AFTER 06Z...DEVELOPING
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ELM/BGM/ITH/AVP.
SUN THRU WED...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR KBGM AND KSYR RECORDS...AND AT LEAST
APPROACHED WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF KAVP.
BINGHAMTON DAILY RECORD HIGH TODAY 92/1988...FORECAST 90
SYRACUSE DAILY RECORD HIGH TODAY 94/2010, 1993, 1935...FORECAST 94
AVOCA DAILY RECORD HIGH TODAY 98/1941...FORECAST 94
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ044-047-
048.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...CMG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
811 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT HOT CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS IN VICINITY OF
THE CAROLINAS...MAKING FOR COOLER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...LOCATED AS OF THIS WRITING JUST NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WITH NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS...AS MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED
ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS TO NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG MUCH OF THE
BORDER...AND TO NEAR 2000J/KG OR GREATER NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. MSAS
AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TROUGH...AND WHILE SOME SHORT-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS LEAVE
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DRY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...THE SURFACE
TROUGH...AND THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING AND DIMINISHING NORTH-
TO-SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND ANY LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHIFT
THIS SHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY AROUND 06Z. THE RAP IS ONE
SHORT-TERM MODEL THAT PORTRAYS A SCENARIO AS WILL BE FORECAST...WITH
THE LEAST CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ON
THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS
POSSIBLE IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND GET STRONG ENOUGH. IN FACT...
CUMULUS WAS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SHEAR
AXIS MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...LIKELY LAST AROUND
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO 70 TO 75 IN MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND KMEB AND KFAY...WITH LOWS SOLIDLY NEAR 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FROM THE NAM AND GFS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS. USING A BLEND OF DEW
POINTS FROM THE GFS...NAM...AND LATEST VERSIONS OF THE SREF AND
ECMWF...AND TRYING TO IGNORE EXTREMES...MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON END UP BEING FORECAST FROM
104 OR 105 TO AS HIGH AS 109 IN MOST AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TEMPERATURE WARMS
BEFORE SOME MODEST MIXING OF DEW POINTS OCCUR...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FOR AN HOUR OR SO HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 110 MAINLY TOWARD
KMEB AND KFAY. COORDINATED WITH KILM...AND FOR THIS ISSUANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY...EXPANDING IT WEST TO INCLUDE
RANDOLPH AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES IN COORDINATION WITH KRNK...AND
ALSO WHERE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST HEAT INDICES GET VERY CLOSE TO
105.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A LITTLE ON BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ALOFT AND A MID-LEVEL CAP THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO OVERCOME. NAM DOES FORECAST A WEAK 700MB SHEAR AXIS MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A MORE MODEST CAP.
1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.5C/KM...WITH SOME
DIMINISHING MOISTURE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE NORTH...
TO AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER
WHICH LEAVES PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF U.S. 64
ACTUALLY AT OR MAYBE JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY. UNDER
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...IT WILL PROBABLY BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IN A HOT AIR MASS WITH AT LEAST
SOME MOISTURE...BETTER SOUTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. IF ONE WOULD OCCUR...
LIKELY THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KMEB TO KRWI.
ANY DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHES DIURNALLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO FALL...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID 70S AS A RULE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER...IN PART...
DUE TO A GRADUALLY INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT
CURRENTLY WELL TO OUR NORTH STARTS ITS SLOW PUSH SOUTH. - DJF
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NE NOAM BEGINS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. ACROSS OUR AREA...SUBTLE CHANGES
WITH REGARD TO THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...
NOTED SUBTLE WARMING AT 850 MB AND LOLEV THICKNESS INCREASE OF ABOUT
10M SUGGEST HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100 WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. BASED ON WARMING AND AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAT
INDEX REACHING 110+ AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS (ESP ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES)...SO EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THIS
WILL BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THIS STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAYS. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
WITH THE MID LEVELS COOLING ABOUT 2C AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL
WARMING. NOTED FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY DEPARTING...THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY PULSE- TYPE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF GIVEN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINING WARM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (LOW-MID 70S). - NMP
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH IN TURN STALLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS TIME. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
REGARD TO THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WITH THE GFS
MOVING SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AND NORTHWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF PROVIDING
FINE DETAILS...BUT RATHER HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR COOLER
NEAR-SEASONABLE TEMPS AND THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SINCE THE ENHANCED JET FEATURES AND
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST... HAZARDS RELATED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIME MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATHER THAN
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE TOO SO BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NEWD WHILE LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE OH AND MS RIVER
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD WESTWARD...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS SUCH...POTENTIALLY WET
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MONDAY MAY STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL (MID-UPPER 80) WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (AROUND 70).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM FRIDAY...
THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO
DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AM
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SECOND...ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW.
OUTLOOK....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES AND RESULTANT ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL THEN INCREASE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND THEN LINGERS NEAR CENTRAL NC
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.
RALEIGH-DURHAM... GREENSBORO...
07/06 102 1999 100 1977
07/07 102 2010 101 1977
07/08 103 1977 102 1977
FAYETTEVILLE...
07/06 99 1990
07/07 103 2010
07/08 102 1977
IF WE REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AT THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AIRPORT EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING TODAY...WE WILL HAVE SET A NEW
RECORD FOR THE NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 100+ DEGREE DAYS (6 DAYS).
THE EXISTING RDU RECORD IS 5 DAYS...SET ON JULY 20-24 IN 2011. THE
HIGH WAS 94 AT KRDU THIS PAST MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/NMP
LONG TERM...NMP
AVIATION...KRR
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
331 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...
OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY`S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.
HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.
SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN THE SAME...THUS EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAYS VALUES...AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DWPTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
(UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST)...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-103 WEST TO 104-107 EAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL
LEAVE AS-IS. AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...NOTED SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL WARMING IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY/CAPE TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON TSTMS. GFS DEPICTS A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH PERHAPS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY AND STRONGER INTENSITY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT PROGS SUGGEST BETTER CAPE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH PC CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. LOWS
FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
ON SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TOP OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARMING. WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WARMING AND WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FURTHER REDUCED. BEST CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHER PW AND DWPTS
ARE LOCATED. LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. WITH MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO
COOL AND PWAT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO ~50 KT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 00Z THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. -VINCENT
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.
RALEIGH-DURHAM... GREENSBORO...
07/05 102 1999 98 1990
07/06 102 1999 100 1977
07/07 102 2010 101 1977
07/08 103 1977 102 1977
FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05 101 2002
07/06 99 1990
07/07 103 2010
07/08 102 1977
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 107 DEGREES.
WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THE H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN UP
AROUND 590 DEM AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE JUST OVER 20C. THE WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS AREA
WHILE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR HELPS TO KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND
70. THE ACTUAL TEMPS WILL REACH BETWEEN 95 AND 100 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD HOLD JUST BELOW 105 DEG ALONG A SLIVER OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.
LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG RIDGE TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TOPPING THE RIDGE TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER
MORE POTENT PERTURBATION WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN WEST OF
LOCAL AREA WITH COASTAL SECTIONS REMAINING IN SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING AND CONVERGENCE...ALLOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO POP WITH STRONG HEATING. THE HRRR SHOWED CONVECTION
FLARING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
STORMS ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK
TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION PRODUCING A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH.
LATEST NAM SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN CAROLINAS
COULD AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN COUNTIES OF LOCAL CWA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL SOUTHWEST
JET. NAM WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE UP NEAR 25K KTS.
EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DROP BUT
THIS SHOULD HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE 80 THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AND FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON FRIDAY WILL FLATTEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIME-
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LAYER OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BETWEEN
700-400 MB...WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. A DEEP LAYER
OF SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING HEIGHTS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S COMBINED WITH SB CAPE TO 2500 J/KG AND LI`S TO -6C WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH TO RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT EXPECT CHANCES TO BE HIGHER
FRIDAY AS A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MIDDAY HEATING. ALSO NOTABLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY IS DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE STEERED TOWARDS SHORE.
GIVEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REACH 105 AT MANY LOCATIONS. THEREFORE WILL RAISE ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY...AND ONE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY ALSO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF EXTREME
HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST COUPLED
WITH MID-70S DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THE DAY. THE HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAUSING THE HEAT
THIS WEEKEND WILL PASS VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY... WITH DECREASING 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
SHOWN ON GFS/ECMWF MODEL PLOTS. MONDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD THEREFORE RUN
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. COOLING AND MOISTENING
MID-LEVELS SHOULD FAVOR BETTER A LITTLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY
AS WELL.
BY TUESDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS
A SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER THAN MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THIS WEEK...WITH PRECIP WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. WE`VE
INCREASED THE AREA OF 40-50 PERCENT 12-HR POPS FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS PATTERN CERTAINLY SHOULD EXCEED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 20-30 PERCENT 12-HR POP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT NECESSARILY SEVERE WEATHER.
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BECOME CONSTRICTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BY THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...UPPER AIR SOUNDING STILL HAS A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TODAY. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS A COMPLEX OF STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE...WENT WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS. COULD NOT RULE OUT A GOOD
THUNDERSTORM...BEST CHANCE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW...A BIT GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHT...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE WANING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW NOCTURNAL JET UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE 975 MB WINDS ARE COMING IN CLOSE TO
35 KTS. OVERALL WILL SEE ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FLOW DIMINISH NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THIS JET ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP
SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND COULD SPIKE AS HIGH AS 5 FT IN OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE MSLP GRADIENT
MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUMP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONSHORE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUNDAY WILL BECOME REPLACED ON
MONDAY BY LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM
VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT
MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 107 DEGREES.
WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THE H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN UP
AROUND 590 DEM AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE JUST OVER 20C. THE WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS AREA
WHILE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR HELPS TO KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND
70. THE ACTUAL TEMPS WILL REACH BETWEEN 95 AND 100 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD HOLD JUST BELOW 105 DEG ALONG A SLIVER OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.
LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG RIDGE TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TOPPING THE RIDGE TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER
MORE POTENT PERTURBATION WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN WEST OF
LOCAL AREA WITH COASTAL SECTIONS REMAINING IN SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING AND CONVERGENCE...ALLOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO POP WITH STRONG HEATING. THE HRRR SHOWED CONVECTION
FLARING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
STORMS ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK
TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION PRODUCING A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH.
LATEST NAM SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN CAROLINAS
COULD AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN COUNTIES OF LOCAL CWA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL SOUTHWEST
JET. NAM WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE UP NEAR 25K KTS.
EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DROP BUT
THIS SHOULD HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE 80 THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AND FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...DEEP DRY AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
UNDER EASTERN EXTENSION OF PLAINS 5H RIDGE WILL MINIMIZE PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. FRI LOOKS THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS AS FAR
AS CONVECTION GOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...MLCAPE FRI AFTERNOON
APPROACHES 3K J/KG AND LAPSE RATES AROUND -8 C/KM...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED AT BEST. MOS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONVECTION THE PAST FEW DAYS SEE NO REASON TO CARRY A POP
HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FRI AFTERNOON. SAT WILL BE MUCH THE SAME
AS FRI...THOUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP FROM 1.7 FRI TO 1.5 SAT. ALSO WARMING ALOFT...AS
SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS...WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES DROP BELOW 2K J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BOTH THE
SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH POSSIBLE TRIGGER MECHANISMS...BUT
NOW HAVE A SHORTER PERIOD OF LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP SAT AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. 850 TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE COMBINED WITH LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION OF
SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY SAT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 105-109 DURING EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD REQUIRING HEAT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE EASTERN
EXTENSION OF THE 5H RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE SUN. THIS PROBABLY
HAPPENS TO LATE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HENCE SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT IT DOES BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO
THE PATTERN ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL HELP DRIVE 5H TROUGH AXIS FARTHER AND FARTHER SOUTH. 00Z GFS
HAS COME IN FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS...POSSIBLY
DUE TO ITS PROPENSITY TO OVER AMPLIFY SHORTWAVES. THUS FAVORED THE
SLOWER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE 5H TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS. ACCOMPANYING THE 5H TROUGH AS IT HEADS SOUTH IS A COLD
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE. INITIALLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ONCE THE 5H TROUGH SETS UP
WEST OF THE AREA...LATER TUE...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP INTO
GULF MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUMP FROM 1.8 TO OVER 2
INCHES LATE TUE AND WED. BASED ON THE DELAYED TIMING HAVE TRIMMED
BACK THE MON POP TO 40 WITH 40 TO 50 FOR TUE AND 40 FOR WED. ANY
PASSING SHORTWAVES WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...BUT TIMING THESE FEATURES SEVERAL DAYS OUT IS NOT
FEASIBLE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO SUN WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
IN BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS END UP BELOW CLIMO
TUE/WED WITH LOWS FALLING BACK TO CLIMO AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NSSL WRF SHOWING A COMPLEX OF
STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...WENT WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT A GOOD THUNDERSTORM...BEST CHANCE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW...A BIT GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE WANING...WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUD DEBRIS. CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
MIXING FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW NOCTURNAL JET UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE 975 MB WINDS ARE COMING IN CLOSE TO
35 KTS. OVERALL WILL SEE ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FLOW DIMINISH NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THIS JET ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP
SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
COULD SPIKE AS HIGH AS 5 FT IN OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
RUN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MARGINAL INCREASE EACH
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A MIX OF THE DOMINANT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AND WEAK SOUTHEAST SWELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH WATERS BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED SUN WITH
WINDS A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY FOR MON BUT
SPEEDS WILL STAY A SOLID 15 KT. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED. INCREASED SPEEDS AND PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS
DURING THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE EACH
DAY...MAINLY MADE UP OF SHORT PERIOD SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE. SCEC WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...
OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY`S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.
HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.
SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN THE SAME...THUS EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAYS VALUES...AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DWPTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
(UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST)...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-103 WEST TO 104-107 EAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL
LEAVE AS-IS. AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...NOTED SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL WARMING IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY/CAPE TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON TSTMS. GFS DEPICTS A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH PERHAPS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY AND STRONGER INTENSITY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT PROGS SUGGEST BETTER CAPE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH PC CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. LOWS
FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
ON SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TOP OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARMING. WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WARMING AND WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FURTHER REDUCED. BEST CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHER PW AND DWPTS
ARE LOCATED. LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. WITH MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO
COOL AND PWAT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM THURSDAY...
A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 4-6SM VSBYS THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
ARE VERY ISOLATED...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC...AND POSSIBLY
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPS
TRIGGER STORMS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK....
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.
RALEIGH-DURHAM... GREENSBORO...
07/05 102 1999 98 1990
07/06 102 1999 100 1977
07/07 102 2010 101 1977
07/08 103 1977 102 1977
FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05 101 2002
07/06 99 1990
07/07 103 2010
07/08 102 1977
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...
OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY`S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.
HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.
SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID. THE SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN AND NORTHERN VA NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THEN WESTWARD ACROSS MI AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY... WITH THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH PERSISTING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MIGHT BE A BYPRODUCT OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY... THE SUBPAR
PERFORMANCE OF BOTH MODELS WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
OH/WV BORDER INTO SW PA GREATLY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE SUBSEQUENT
MODEL DETAILS. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT WE
MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY AN UPSTREAM MCV SOMETIME FRIDAY BASED ON THE
ONGOING LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NRN MISSOURI WILL STEADILY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... RESULTING IN AROUND A
20-30 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISE OVER NC AND LIKELY CAUSING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DEFLECTION IN MOVEMENT OF ANY SUCH MCV TOWARD
THE SRN APPALACHIANS / WRN NC... WHERE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 6.75-7.0 C/KM. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO BORDERLINE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2800 J/KG... AND WITH MARGINAL BUT
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20 KTS. SO EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION... WE
SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1.8-1.9 INCHES... ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST. WE
MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SOME
HAIL GIVEN THAT CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG WITH NORMALIZED CAPE OVER 0.20 M/S2. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES --
WHICH ARE PROJECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND -- POINT TO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN A FEW OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 100 ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS
PERSISTENCE. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST INDICATE ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC EXCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION.
MODELS INDICATE LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH
PROJECTIONS OF WANING PRECIP WATER AND CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVELS...
WE SHOULD SEE A 10 PERCENT OR LOWER COVERAGE OF NIGHTTIME PRECIP...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS 71-76.
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: STILL HOT WITH EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH NC... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIP TO JUST 6.0-6.25 C/KM WITH
DRYING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT
DROPPING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY... AND WE SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING OF
THE LEE TROUGH WITH DIMINISHING MID LEVEL WINDS. WITH CONTINUED
STRONG SURFACE HEATING... WILL NOT GO ENTIRELY DRY BUT WILL RESTRICT
PRECIP CHANCES TO EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGHER PRECIP WATER AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RESIDE... AND WILL CONFINE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS AGAIN 98-102.
PREDICTED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT YET ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES... AND MORE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS WHICH COULD SUPPRESS HEAT INDICES A BIT.
BREEZES STAYING UP OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...
THUS ANTICIPATE WARMER LOWS OF 74-78. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS NC BUT WILL HAVE BECOME STRETCHED AND WEAKENED WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDATLANTIC... FORESHADOWING A PATTERN CHANGE AS A
CANADIAN VORTEX DEEPENS OVER THE BORDER OF QUEBEC WITH LABRADOR. AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY... THE SURFACE COOL FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE VA/NC STATE LINE... ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTHWARD IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS RANGE. BUT GFS/ECMWF THICKNESSES REMAIN QUITE
HIGH... AND EXPECT THE HEAT TO HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY... WITH JUST
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES AS THE MID LEVELS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS AGAIN CLOSE TO 100 WITH MORNING THICKNESSES IN THE 1430-1435
METER RANGE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AN END TO THE HEAT WAVE MAY BE IN
SIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
SOUTH. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR... RISING MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARD WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL HOLD OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... ROUGHLY
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS PATTERN... THE
SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH
A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN BOTH THE MSLP AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS... TYPICAL FOR JULY IN NC. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITHIN A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH A CONTINUED
TAPPING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THICKNESSES HEAD BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS... INDICATIVE OF HIGHS NEAR OR JUST UNDER NORMAL HIGHS
BUT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM THURSDAY...
A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 4-6SM VSBYS THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
ARE VERY ISOLATED...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC...AND POSSIBLY
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPS
TRIGGER STORMS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK....
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.
RALEIGH-DURHAM... GREENSBORO...
07/05 102 1999 98 1990
07/06 102 1999 100 1977
07/07 102 2010 101 1977
07/08 103 1977 102 1977
FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05 101 2002
07/06 99 1990
07/07 103 2010
07/08 102 1977
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRR/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...
OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY`S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.
HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/SEVERE THREAT:
WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO 30% EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ASSOC/W
DECAYED MCS REMNANTS JUST SOUTH OF BLUEFIELD WV...THOUGH THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWEST NC FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FCST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION ON PRECIP CHANCES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1 PM. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID. THE SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN AND NORTHERN VA NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THEN WESTWARD ACROSS MI AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY... WITH THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH PERSISTING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MIGHT BE A BYPRODUCT OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY... THE SUBPAR
PERFORMANCE OF BOTH MODELS WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
OH/WV BORDER INTO SW PA GREATLY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE SUBSEQUENT
MODEL DETAILS. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT WE
MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY AN UPSTREAM MCV SOMETIME FRIDAY BASED ON THE
ONGOING LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NRN MISSOURI WILL STEADILY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... RESULTING IN AROUND A
20-30 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISE OVER NC AND LIKELY CAUSING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DEFLECTION IN MOVEMENT OF ANY SUCH MCV TOWARD
THE SRN APPALACHIANS / WRN NC... WHERE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 6.75-7.0 C/KM. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO BORDERLINE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2800 J/KG... AND WITH MARGINAL BUT
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20 KTS. SO EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION... WE
SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1.8-1.9 INCHES... ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST. WE
MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SOME
HAIL GIVEN THAT CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG WITH NORMALIZED CAPE OVER 0.20 M/S2. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES --
WHICH ARE PROJECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND -- POINT TO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN A FEW OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 100 ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS
PERSISTENCE. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST INDICATE ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC EXCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION.
MODELS INDICATE LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH
PROJECTIONS OF WANING PRECIP WATER AND CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVELS...
WE SHOULD SEE A 10 PERCENT OR LOWER COVERAGE OF NIGHTTIME PRECIP...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS 71-76.
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: STILL HOT WITH EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH NC... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIP TO JUST 6.0-6.25 C/KM WITH
DRYING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT
DROPPING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY... AND WE SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING OF
THE LEE TROUGH WITH DIMINISHING MID LEVEL WINDS. WITH CONTINUED
STRONG SURFACE HEATING... WILL NOT GO ENTIRELY DRY BUT WILL RESTRICT
PRECIP CHANCES TO EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGHER PRECIP WATER AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RESIDE... AND WILL CONFINE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS AGAIN 98-102.
PREDICTED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT YET ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES... AND MORE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS WHICH COULD SUPPRESS HEAT INDICES A BIT.
BREEZES STAYING UP OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...
THUS ANTICIPATE WARMER LOWS OF 74-78. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS NC BUT WILL HAVE BECOME STRETCHED AND WEAKENED WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDATLANTIC... FORESHADOWING A PATTERN CHANGE AS A
CANADIAN VORTEX DEEPENS OVER THE BORDER OF QUEBEC WITH LABRADOR. AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY... THE SURFACE COOL FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE VA/NC STATE LINE... ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTHWARD IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS RANGE. BUT GFS/ECMWF THICKNESSES REMAIN QUITE
HIGH... AND EXPECT THE HEAT TO HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY... WITH JUST
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES AS THE MID LEVELS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS AGAIN CLOSE TO 100 WITH MORNING THICKNESSES IN THE 1430-1435
METER RANGE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AN END TO THE HEAT WAVE MAY BE IN
SIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
SOUTH. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR... RISING MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARD WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL HOLD OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... ROUGHLY
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS PATTERN... THE
SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH
A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN BOTH THE MSLP AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS... TYPICAL FOR JULY IN NC. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITHIN A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH A CONTINUED
TAPPING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THICKNESSES HEAD BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS... INDICATIVE OF HIGHS NEAR OR JUST UNDER NORMAL HIGHS
BUT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM THURSDAY...
A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 4-6SM VSBYS THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
ARE VERY ISOLATED...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC...AND POSSIBLY
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPS
TRIGGER STORMS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK....
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.
RALEIGH-DURHAM... GREENSBORO...
07/05 102 1999 98 1990
07/06 102 1999 100 1977
07/07 102 2010 101 1977
07/08 103 1977 102 1977
FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05 101 2002
07/06 99 1990
07/07 103 2010
07/08 102 1977
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRR/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1203 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ECHOES INCREASING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TAKES THIS AREA AND MOVES
IT INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z. COMPARING THE 1KM AGL
REFLECTIVITY AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...IT APPEARS THAT ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD EITHER BE VERY LIGHT/SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER.
THE GFS SHOWS SOME INDICATION OF THIS INTO OUR SOUTHWEST BY 12Z
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS IT IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HAVE ADDED IN 20 POPS
FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST
00Z DATA/SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF MAINLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT
REMAINING BELOW THE 1HR/3HR/6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE BEST
SEVERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
(KDIK) AROUND 00Z TO SOUTH CENTRAL (KBIS) AROUND 03Z FRIDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT KJMS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. FOR NOW
INDICATED VCTS IN THE KDIK/KBIS TAFS GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
LATER TAF ISSUANCES SHOULD HAVE GREATER DETAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1007 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...
1007 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND EXTENDED
FROM NEAR KACQ TO KAUW AT 03Z. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WHERE IT HAS RAINED TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 60S FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA AS THIS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHICH WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. HAVE LET THE HEAT
ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED FOR ALL BUT CLAYTON AND GRANT COUNTIES.
LINE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN AN AXIS OF AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA APPEARS TO BE AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE 07.00Z HRRR SUGGEST
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE LINE COULD SURVIVE AHEAD OF THE SOUTH
DAKOTA WAVE AND SINK TO ABOUT I90 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
06.12 MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM AND HOLDING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDING OVER
EASTERN CANADA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. IT WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE...WITH
DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. AS IT DOES...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT THUS LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AREAS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ALREADY MOVED PAST BY THE TIME THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE FRONT...THERE STILL
SHOULD BE A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT COMES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG/HAZE AND VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4 TO 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1007 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ061.
MN...NONE.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUES...WITH
MOST AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES HITTING 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE REACHED 103 EACH...WITH LAKE BREEZE AT MILWAUKEE
LIKELY ENDING TEMPERATURE CLIMB THERE...MISSING ALL TIME HIGH OF 105
BY 2 DEGREES. MADISON MAY CLIMB ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...BUT SHOULD
ALSO FALL SHORT OF ALL TIME HIGH OF 107. HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
100 TO 110 WITH DEW POINTS MIXING OUT AGAIN.
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z
FRIDAY...AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENOSHA
COUNTY. THIS LIKELY A RESULT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVELS
WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED. RAP SOUNDING FROM KENOSHA SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 600
J/KG WITH UNDER 25 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
THERE MAY ALSO HELP WITH LIFT.
WEAK FRONT WITH CUMULUS LINE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH DEEP
LIFT TO MENTION POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...GIVEN STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT TO REMAIN VERY WARM...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST AREAS PER 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM NAM.
FRONT TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY...BUT GETS
HUNG UP IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS HOLD IN
THAT AREA. KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING WITH LACK OF DEEP LIFT WITH
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL HIT 100 OR A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...INCLUDING MADISON...WITH COOLER 90S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITHIN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE 95 TO 105 IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...TO 100 TO 110 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. KEPT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS GOING FOR
ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY
AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...UNFORTUNATELY. THE NAM BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS DRY...THE GFS IS CHARACTERISTICALLY WET...AND THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT REALLY
SUPPORT PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET LEANS OVER
ACROSS CENTRAL WI TO BECOME WESTERLY AND WEAKEN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STRONGEST 500MB SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF WI AS THE FRONT GETS HERE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET MAY PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND THERE
MAY BE A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE 500MB FLOW THAT IS NOT REALLY APPARENT
IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. PREFER THE DRY NAM FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
KEPT IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT POPS JUST IN CASE.
THE NAM IS STILL THE FASTEST WITH PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN TO THE IL
BORDER...SO TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS
CHANGING TO NORTH AROUND 18Z. THE SLOWER ECMWF HANGS ON TO A SMALL
CHANCE FOR TSTORMS ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.
IT WILL STILL BE HOT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
925MB HANGING AROUND 31C. IF THERE IS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...THEN
CLOUDS WOULD GET IN THE WAY OF MAX HEATING. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ALONG THE IL BORDER...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE ON SAT. WILL KEEP
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING INTACT INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THIS
POINT.
COLDEST 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE OVER WI SAT NIGHT...WITH 925MB
TEMPS REBOUNDING UP TO AROUND 23C ON SUN. THIS COOLER TEMP PATTERN
WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
IF WE DO NOT GET PRECIP WITH THE FRONT SAT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON WED...BUT ONLY THE WET GFS SHOWS
THAT CHANCE...THEREFORE LEFT IT OUT OF FORECAST.
925MB TEMPS REBOUNDING UP TO AROUND 23C ON SUN...SO HIGHS IN THE 80S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAYBE WITH SOME UPPER 70S NEAR THE
LAKE. THIS COOLER TEMP PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST MID
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. WEST WINDS
MAY GUST UP TO 18 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
MIXING OF LOW LEVELS FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MILWAUKEE UNTIL SUNSET...BUT REMAIN EAST OF
KENOSHA AND WAUKESHA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
KENOSHA...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS AT 8000 FEET AGL TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS VEERING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. THEY MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT. WINDS VEER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT MADISON ON FRIDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE.
EASTERN SITES SHOULD SEE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
354 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
AT 3 AM...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER LAST EVENING ACROSS DULUTH/S FORECAST AREA...
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE PAST HOUR...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF
A 30 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB JET. THIS JET MAY BE IMPINGING ON SOME
ELEVATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A 700 MB TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE IS INSTABILITY
/1-2K MOST UNSTABLE CAPES/ IN THIS AREA...THE 1-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...SO NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING ELEVATED PULSE STORMS. WITH
THE DCAPE RUNNING UP TO 1500 J/KG...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
WANES TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY 05.15Z.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT /THAT TERM IS BEING
USED VERY LIBERALLY BECAUSE THERE IS JUST A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT/ WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MINNESOTA BORDER AND THEN
STALL. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE 700 MB CAP RUNNING BETWEEN 10 AND
14C...LITTLE /IF ANY/ MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND NO SYSTEM
ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE CAPPING ALOFT. AS A RESULT...NOT IMPRESSED AT
ALL WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF ANY
CONVECTION DID DEVELOP...THE SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...SO AT MOST YOU
WOULD GET IS A PULSE SEVERE STORM. WITH THIS SAID...THE ARW DOES
GENERATE SUPERCELL SHEAR FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO BE
CAUSED BY ITS EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...SO DISCOUNTING
THAT THIS IS REAL. THE AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE ALOFT FROM
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
WITH THIS SAID...WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS
FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST.
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT THAT THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CAP IN
PLACE...SO THINKING THAT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THERE IS ALSO
VERY LITTLE 0-6 KM SHEAR. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST 150 MILES TOO FAR SOUTH. ONE THING
NEW FOR FRIDAY IS THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME WINDS ALOFT TO
AID WITH THE MIXING OF THE WARM AIR FROM ALOFT...THEREFORE...WE
COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...
OUR TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WHAT WE WOULD TYPICALLY SEE THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF ARE THE FASTEST AT MOVING
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AT
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE NAM/WRF AND GFS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WOULD
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT AND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...NOT
IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
354 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
ON SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED. THE NAM/WRF AND GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE WOULD STILL
BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE IT
IS UNCLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...JUST WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE A
CANADIAN HIGH WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CONTINUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX SHOULD
MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN MISSING
BOTH TAF SITES. NOT SURE HOW FAR THE COMPLEX WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AS THE 05.03Z RAP SHOWS THE SUPPORTING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ALMOST STRAIGHT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
ONTARIO. SO AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL GET FARTHER
AWAY FROM ITS SUPPORT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...AROUND 25 KNOTS...TO FEED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
THE COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD SERVE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE TIME THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING KLSE...THE WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLING SO JUST WENT WITH
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE EVENING. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
354 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
321 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CONTINUED EXCESSIVE HEAT
THROUGH FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST ND
WITH A WARM FRONT EAST INTO NORTHERN WI AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST
TO ANOTHER LOW IN EASTERN CO. A VERY WARM/HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH 1 PM ALREADY IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AND HEAT INDICES THE 95 TO
110 RANGE. STRONGEST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
MN...WHERE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF SASKAT TUE EVENING CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT.
04.12Z LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL...BUT FOR GFS AND ITS 2-7F HIGH
BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOLUTIONS RATHER SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/MUCH OF THU...BUT ALREADY
DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THU/THU NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE FRONT FOR FRI INTO SAT
NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 04.12Z SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z
AND 03.12Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...FAVORING MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF EARLIER RUNS. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT FOR FRI INTO SAT NIGHT BUT
DIFFER ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING/
FLATTENING THE MID CONUS RIDGING. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z
SHOWED ALL REASONABLE WITH THE CENTRAL NOAM SFC PRESSURE FIELD. ALL
STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE NORTHERN MN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. GFS AND 04.12 NMM/ARW WRF MODELS LOOK BEST WITH
THE COMPLEX...BUT SUFFER FROM PRECIP/CONVECTION ISSUES ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION. THUS NO ONE MODEL FAVORED FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DETAILS THIS CYCLE. PREFER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THIS CYCLE
AND FAVORED LARGER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...NORTHERN MN CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND
PERHAPS CLIP INTO FAR NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS OVER THE FCST AREA MIXED TO 850-800MB WITH MINIMAL CAPPING.
HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY CUMULUS WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE 25-
30F RANGE. SOUNDINGS WOULD HAVE TO MIX TO 750-700MB FOR CUMULUS...
BUT FOR FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LEAVE THIS EVENING DRY
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING/LIFT OVER/AROUND THE AREA. MAIN
LOW IN CANADA TRACKS TO HUDSONS BAY BY LATE THU...DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT TO NEAR A KIWD-KMSP-KSUX LINE BY 12Z THU THEN TO NEAR A KGRB-
KLSE-KOMA LINE BY 00Z FRI. A FEW OF THE WRF MODELS AND GFS INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST END
OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE FORCING DETAILS BUT CARRIED A SMALL SHRA/
TSRA CHANCE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A KRST-BLACK RIVER FALLS LINE LATE
TONIGHT/THU MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MINIMAL CAPPING SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE EXTREME HEAT
AND DEW POINTS/CAPE AXIS POOLED NEAR THE COLD FRONT OOZING SOUTH
THRU THE AREA...ADDED AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT TSRA CHANCE TO THU
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THIS SMALL CHANCE FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PARTS
OF THE FCST ARE THU EVENING.
ANOTHER SCORCHER ON THU WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS. 850MB
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE +24 TO +26C RANGE...ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THOSE OF TODAY. DEW POINTS THU REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...
PERHAPS HIGHER WITH THE MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST
THU NIGHT. WITH GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRI AND SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIM COUNTIES FROM WABASHA TO JACKSON AND NORTH OUT OF THE
HEAT WARNING FOR FRI. WILL NOT DO THIS NOW DUE TO MODEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES ON FRONT LOCATION AND HOW QUICKLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH BEHIND IT.
LEFT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...NEAR OR
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AXIS...HOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS SFC LOW LIFTS/TRACKS
EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...IF THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH...AND
WHEN/WHERE THE STRONGER OF THE 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE WOULD FOCUS...ALL PROVIDE FOR VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. THUS FAVORED
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. MORE
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR SAT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI WITH THE WARM 925-850MB AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONT/CLOUDS/CONVECTION...FAVORED A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
321 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012
04.00Z AND 04.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN/MON
FOR RIDGING ALOFT TO REBUILD OVER WESTERN NOAM AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO COME UNDER INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUE/WED WITH SOME DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING.
NO MODEL WITH CLEARLY BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY /AT LEAST AT
500MB/ IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. WITH BETTER BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY
THE LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE. SOME
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING OF THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVES AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUN...ECMWF SLOWER...GFS/GEM FASTER EXITING THIS
FORCING/LIFT. SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON SUN LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
AFTER THAT...COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR MON-WED. WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS LOOKS TO HANG ONTO TOO MUCH LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE BY TUE/WED...AND GENERATES INSTABILITY/PRECIP ON DAYS 6/7.
SOME LESSER CONFIDENCE ON THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY TUE/WED BUT SIDED
WITH THE NON-GFS MODEL/ ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. BETTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SUN-WED TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CONTINUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX SHOULD
MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN MISSING
BOTH TAF SITES. NOT SURE HOW FAR THE COMPLEX WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AS THE 05.03Z RAP SHOWS THE SUPPORTING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ALMOST STRAIGHT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
ONTARIO. SO AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL GET FARTHER
AWAY FROM ITS SUPPORT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...AROUND 25 KNOTS...TO FEED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
THE COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD SERVE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE TIME THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING KLSE...THE WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLING SO JUST WENT WITH
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE EVENING. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
321 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED COVERAGE TOO MINIMAL TO
INCLUDE VCSH FOR ANY TERMINAL FORECASTS. HOWEVER, WITH DIURNAL
HEATING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND
AND GENERALLY PUSH WESTWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST FROM 17Z-03Z. VCSH IS WARRANTED FOR KAPF DURING
THIS PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ESE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS, EXCEPT AT KAPF, WHERE WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW AROUND 17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012/
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENT CLUSTER OF TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE
COLLIER COUNTY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
KAPF. AFTERNOON SHRAS/TSRAS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. BETTER
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD AGAIN BE ALONG THE INTERIOR TO THE
GULF COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST HRRR/WRF/NAM MODEL REACTIVITIES GENERALLY REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AND INDICATE MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE DEVELOPING INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS
THE GULF/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO MERGE. THE HRRR IS THE
MORE BULLISH SOLUTION AND GENERATES SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OVER
THESE AREAS. PROVIDED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...MINUS 8 DEG C AT 500 MB AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE SEA BREEZES MERGING COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATER TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE S FL PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CYCLE REMAINS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING WNW ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SE. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND GENERALLY DAMPENS THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
AND SLIGHT ENHANCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AROUND THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE BAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 91 77 / 20 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 40 20
MIAMI 91 80 92 78 / 20 20 50 20
NAPLES 91 76 91 76 / 30 30 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
210 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
958 PM CDT
BUMPED UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE CWA...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS EVENING ARE STILL REGISTERING AS WARM AS IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN PLACES AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TONIGHT...WHEREAS LAST
NIGHT WINDS BECAME CALM FOR SOME AREAS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE CONCERNS TO NOTE...MAINLY
REVOLVING AROUND FRONTAL TIMING. THE 18Z AND NOW 00Z NAM CONTINUE
TO COME IN WITH A MID AFTERNOON FROPA...AND THINK THIS MAY BE A
REASONABLE SOLUTION //IF NOT SLOWER// SINCE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE EXTREME HEAT WITHOUT MUCH
CONVECTION/COLD POOLING TO ASSIST. THE 00Z NAM DOES EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ISOLD/SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED...WEAKLY CAPPED DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...EVEN MODEST FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK...BUT MAY BE BETTER OVER NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE AHEAD DOWN THE LAKE.
IF WE DO GET A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THAN 100F AT ORD IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...LEADING TO RECORD BREAKING FOURTH CONSECUTIVE
100 DEGREE DAY FOR CHICAGO. BMD
//PREV DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER
WITH A LAKE BREEZE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST IL. SCT CU HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000+ J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...HOWEVER SUSPECTING THE 100
J/KG OF CIN IS HOLDING CONVECTION BACK. AMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A SMALL CAP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE IN THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...AND THE LAKE BREEZE IS NOT
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH LIGHT WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF IT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD FIRE...BUT BETTING AGAINST IT AND
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT FOR
LOW 80S DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DOWNTOWN.
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT REACH
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH MANY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN SEEING TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES. ONLY COOLER SPOTS
WOULD BE NEAR UGN AND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
TURN ON SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING RELIEF TO THE NEARSHORE
REGIONS FIRST. HOWEVER...EXPECTING LAKE FRONT AREAS TO REACH THEIR
DAYTIME MAX IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES TOMORROW
EAST OF I-355...WITH 105 TO 119 EXPECTED IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...TEMPS WILL DROP
SUDDENLY...BUT EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS...LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...PROVIDING THE FIRST REFRESHING NIGHT IN A
LONG TIME FOR MANY AREAS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS MOISTURE DISSIPATES AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. WAS NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WE NEED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO CAPE
TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
JEE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY IS THE END OF THE WITHERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST...THOUGH THE 6 TO 10/8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC SUGGEST VERY WARM CONDITIONS MAY BE IN
STORE AGAIN BEYOND DAY 7. UNFORTUNATELY...NO RELIEF IS IN SIGHT FOR
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH AFTER
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS HEAT WAVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
BLOCKING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE PATTERN VERY SLOW
MOVING...BUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BE
ABLE TO KNOCK DOWN THE EVER PRESENT INTENSE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD
COOL ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MERCIFULLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE LAKEFRONT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH
DRIER AND COMFORTABLE...AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE TRYING
TO HINT AT POST FRONTAL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT
INHERITED SLIGHT POPS TO SOUTHERN CWA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNDAY...NO REAL CONCERNS TO SPEAK OF...OTHER THAN CONTINUED
LACK OF RAINFALL...WHICH IS A CONCERN IN THIS WORSENING DROUGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE HIGH LOCKED OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING SYNOPTIC NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTING TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR SEASONABLE...WARMEST ON MONDAY AND
THEN LIKELY WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. LIKELY DAILY LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AS THE
CONTINUOUS HEAT THIS SUMMER HAS LEFT LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN JULY. DESPITE GFS
WANTING TO OCCASIONALLY PAINT QPF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DROUGHT...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE SUPERIOR AND STABLE ECMWF IN
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WIND SHIFTING TO NNE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING WIND SPEED FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
* THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AT 05Z COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE
NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE HURON WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. OF MI
...WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...FAR NORTHWEST IA AND NORTHEAST NE. SURFACE WINDS
WOULD SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THE LEADING WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS RATHER
THAN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WHILE MODEL GRAPHICAL AND NUMERICAL OUTPUT SHOW SURFACE WIND
VEERING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING THE TRUE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELINEATED BY THE FURTHER VEERING TO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN IL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE OUTFLOWS OFTEN ENCOURAGE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT
DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND LATER
TIME OF PASSAGE AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM
CONSIDERING THE BACKING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING
DETECTED BY 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AT QUAD CITIES AND DSM
AREA. USING THE NAM FOR TIMING THE FRONT PASSES BOTH ORD AND MDW
AT 20-21Z AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MI DUE
TO LESS SURFACE FRICTION.
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS WIND EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT AS A
PRESSURE RISE CENTER MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN IL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME TS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...RATHER LARGE
CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL COOLING BEGINNING BY
LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO VEER FROM WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST. COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SO HAVE
LEFT PROB30 DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
WSHFT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TS ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA...MODERATE CONFIDENCE COVERAGE WILL BE NOT BECOME
WIDESPREAD.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NNE WINDS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTER SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKE. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE...WITH
PERIODS OF WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS ALONG/OVER EACH
COAST. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PACIFIC.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
OF THE RIDGE. FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS WERE ALSO CLOSE AT MID
LEVELS WITH THE UKMET...CANADIAN...SREF AND GFS DOING SLIGHTLY
BETTER. CURRENTLY COLD POOL IS SHOVING FRONT IN A LITTLE
FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE RUC WAS CATCHING THIS THE
BEST WITH MAYBE THE NAM AND GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE HRRR WAS
ACTUALLY TOO FAST ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FRONT BUT WAS NOT BAD
WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. MODELS NOT
CATCHING THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL. THEY TENDED TO NOT
HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST. HERE THE GFS WAS OUTDOING THE
REST THE UKMET BEHIND IT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PER THE RUC/HRRR WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A
LITTLE FASTER. NEWER ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER.
GUSTY WINDS AND STRATUS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS MORNING. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE FRONT. BASED ON
REALITY AND TRENDS OF NEWER MODEL DATA...WILL BE TAKING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAKING IT COOLER.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE MOVES WELL SOUTH OR GETS DRAPED
ACROSS OR TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THAT WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FLOW/LIFT ON
TOP OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. HARD TO FIND ANYTHING REALLY STRONG TO LIFT THIS AIR MASS.
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUT TO OUR WEST WITH NO REAL STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OR CONVERGENCE. ALSO 700 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAP THE AIR MASS. PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST AND ALONG OUR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP STORM MOVES ARE SLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WAS ILLUSTRATED TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AREA IN UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHAT LOOKS TO BE
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE PERIOD STARTS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT REALLY
HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA. WITH UPSLOPE...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT ON THIS MOIST AIR MASS. AGAIN HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIFT AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE CUTTING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TOO FAST. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING. WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION THERE IS LOOKS TO END DURING THE EVENING. HOW FAST IT
CLEARS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. AGAIN THINK MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN
MANY PLACES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THERE MAY BE TOO
WARM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CHURNS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRY TO TRAVEL EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THINK THAT IF
ANYTHING MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. A WEAK SURFACE LEE
TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON IT AND SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 0 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 0 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 10 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...
1007 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND EXTENDED
FROM NEAR KACQ TO KAUW AT 03Z. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WHERE IT HAS RAINED TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 60S FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA AS THIS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHICH WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. HAVE LET THE HEAT
ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED FOR ALL BUT CLAYTON AND GRANT COUNTIES.
LINE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN AN AXIS OF AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA APPEARS TO BE AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE 07.00Z HRRR SUGGEST
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE LINE COULD SURVIVE AHEAD OF THE SOUTH
DAKOTA WAVE AND SINK TO ABOUT I90 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
06.12 MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM AND HOLDING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDING OVER
EASTERN CANADA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. IT WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE...WITH
DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS AND
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH KRST RIGHT ABOUT 06Z. FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR
KLSE A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER AROUND 08Z. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LINE OF
CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 850 FRONTOGENESIS.
THE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST AND A LITTLE SOUTHEAST AND IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. KLSE MAY HAVE A
SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING A VCTS BUT EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT ONLY BRINGS IT ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS KBCK. STILL AN
ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOWER VFR CEILINGS SO HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THIS MIXES OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1007 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ061.
MN...NONE.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL FIRE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE
OF SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR QUINCY
ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON 15Z WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS CENTER OF HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS A RESULT...THINK
GREATEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND ZERO POPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. FURTHER WEST ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOST MODELS KEEP THINGS COMPLETELY DRY...THE 12Z HRRR HINTS AT A
FEW STORMS AROUND THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO CARRY ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET...WITH READINGS GENERALLY REACHING THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAFS SITES NEXT 24HRS.
EXPECTING CIRRUS CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WITH FEW AC AT 8KFT. AC
SHOUL THICKEN UP SOME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION VERY UNCERTAIN...SO
WILL NOT HAVE ANY PCPN MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. WILL LET LATER
SHIFT DECIDE IF WARRANTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT THE PAST FIVE DAYS SINCE TUE.
LEANED TOWARD WARMER MET HIGHS WHICH ARE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO
HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OF 100-108F AND HEAT
INDICES PEAKING NEAR 110F IN THE AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE
LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION RANGING FROM 104-109F ALL SET
IN 1936. HEAT WAVE DUE TO VERY STRONG 596 DM 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL THAT AFFECTS IL ONE MORE DAY.
INTRODUCED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW CWA AND ALSO NORTH OF PEORIA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NW IA...SE NEBRASKA AND NW KS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND THRU SE IL SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE 20-40% CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO SE IL SUNDAY WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN SE IL SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE GOING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SE OF I-70. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN FAR SE IL MONDAY AS BEST CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM CENTRAL/SE IL.
COOLER HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CENTRAL IL AND 90-95 IN
SE IL WHERE HEAT INDICES PEAK AROUND 100F.
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
THE NE SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TO RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF AREA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 AND WARMEST
READINGS IN SW AREAS. MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST OR THE NEW ALLBLEND DATA.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
946 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
946 AM CDT
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION UP THE LAKE FLIPPED WINDS TO ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. HAVE REFLECTED THIS TREND IN NEW PUBLISHED GRIDS...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT ORD/MDW ALREADY HAVING REACHED THE LOW/MID 90S.
BASED OFF TRENDS AT SITES JUST NORTH OF THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF TO THE LOW/MID 80S AT SITES JUST AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
UPPER 70S ON THE LAKEFRONT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST INDIANA...BEFORE
RECOVERING SOME AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT...WHICH IS STILL
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WILL STILL REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S/LOW 100S ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. THEN THE SYNOPTIC
COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA AT 18 TO 19Z...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AT INLAND SITES AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
COOLING TREND AT NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE IS THE STREAK OF
100 DEGREE DAYS AT ORD SHOULD END...BUT ROCKFORD AREA HAS A
DISTINCT CHANCE OF REACHING 100 AGAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS...BASED OFF MINIMAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC COOL
FRONT...LOWERED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CANT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
BEFORE THE ELEVATED COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
RC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY AND STRENGTH/GUSTINESS OF
WINDS BEHIND IT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA WITH FROPA.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND WINDS BEHIND IT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY TS THAT WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WOULD BE TO THE SE TROUGH SW OF THE IMMEDIATE CHI
AREA.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS HOUR.
* WINDS LIKELY TO STAY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF COOL FRONT LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR A SHIFT BACK TO NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IF THE OUTFLOW AIR CAN BE MIXED.
* PATCHY OF 800-1200 FT CIGS FROM MKE-RAC AND POINTS EASTWARD
MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE...APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN
JUST EAST OF ORD/MDW NEXT FEW HOURS.
* LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH NOW
APPROACHING ORD/MDW AND GYY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH
THE PASSAGE WITH SOME INITIAL GUSTS TO 15-18 KT AND POSSIBLY
AROUND 20 KT AT GYY. WINDS SHOULD THEN SETTLE DOWN UNTIL THE MAIN
COOL FRONT PASSES MIDDAY OR SO WITH GUSTS COMING UP INTO THE 20
KT RANGE. EXPECT WINDS AT ORD/MDW/GYY TO REMAIN NORTH OR NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THEY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY IF THE OUTFLOW CAN MIX OUT.
REGARDLESS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALSO WATCHING A PATCH OF APPROXIMATELY 800-1200 FT CIGS FROM MKE-
RAC AND POINTS OFFSHORE WHICH SATELLITE SHOWS WOULD STAY OFFSHORE
FROM ORD/MDW AND PROBABLY GYY.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PASSAGE THIS HOUR.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COOL FRONT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 800-1200 FT CLOUD BAND REMAINING EAST
OF ORD/MDW NEXT FEW HOURS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOW TSRA POTENTIAL AND THAT BULK OF ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY AND STRENGTH/GUSTINESS OF
WINDS BEHIND IT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA WITH FROPA.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND WINDS BEHIND IT.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY TS THAT WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WOULD BE TO THE SE TROUGH SW OF THE IMMEDIATE CHI
AREA.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
545 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS ALONG/OVER EACH
COAST. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PACIFIC.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
OF THE RIDGE. FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS WERE ALSO CLOSE AT MID
LEVELS WITH THE UKMET...CANADIAN...SREF AND GFS DOING SLIGHTLY
BETTER. CURRENTLY COLD POOL IS SHOVING FRONT IN A LITTLE
FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE RUC WAS CATCHING THIS THE
BEST WITH MAYBE THE NAM AND GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE HRRR WAS
ACTUALLY TOO FAST ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FRONT BUT WAS NOT BAD
WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. MODELS NOT
CATCHING THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL. THEY TENDED TO NOT
HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST. HERE THE GFS WAS OUTDOING THE
REST THE UKMET BEHIND IT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PER THE RUC/HRRR WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A
LITTLE FASTER. NEWER ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER.
GUSTY WINDS AND STRATUS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS MORNING. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE FRONT. BASED ON
REALITY AND TRENDS OF NEWER MODEL DATA...WILL BE TAKING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAKING IT COOLER.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE MOVES WELL SOUTH OR GETS DRAPED
ACROSS OR TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THAT WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FLOW/LIFT ON
TOP OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. HARD TO FIND ANYTHING REALLY STRONG TO LIFT THIS AIR MASS.
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUT TO OUR WEST WITH NO REAL STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OR CONVERGENCE. ALSO 700 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAP THE AIR MASS. PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST AND ALONG OUR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP STORM MOVES ARE SLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WAS ILLUSTRATED TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AREA IN UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHAT LOOKS TO BE
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE PERIOD STARTS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT REALLY
HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA. WITH UPSLOPE...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT ON THIS MOIST AIR MASS. AGAIN HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIFT AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE CUTTING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TOO FAST. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING. WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION THERE IS LOOKS TO END DURING THE EVENING. HOW FAST IT
CLEARS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. AGAIN THINK MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN
MANY PLACES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THERE MAY BE TOO
WARM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CHURNS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRY TO TRAVEL EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THINK THAT IF
ANYTHING MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. A WEAK SURFACE LEE
TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS. INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO BEFORE 18Z. THEN VFR/BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THAT
TIME BUT COVERAGE AND EXACTLY WHERE ARE IN QUESTION. CHOSE TO
HANDLE WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE DAY SHIFT FINE TUNE.
AFTER 06Z...MVFR OR JUST ABOVE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...EXTENDS FROM GULF COAST STATES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...COVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS WOULD
INDICATE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A FEW TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A KOKC TO KSPS LINE AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT
FROM TSRA/SHRA APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 0 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 0 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 10 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A FEW TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A KOKC TO KSPS LINE AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT
FROM TSRA/SHRA APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 0 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 0 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 10 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FCST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM...12Z RUC AND
00Z HIRES SOLUTIONS ALL FCST LOW QPF ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA AS DEPICTED BY THE BLENDED
TOTAL PW PRODUCT. REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...
A STRATUS DECK AT 1100-1500FT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPO FILLING-IN TO BKN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE AND INLAND PROGRESSION AS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED...BUT AREAL COVERAGE STILL REMAINS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION AT KSAT/KSSF/KAUS AT THIS TIME. SFC
WINDS THIS MORNING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SW-RLY
COMPONENT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE BEFORE 17Z. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS SINCE MID MAY...
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM FORECAST
SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING FOR LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY...THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FIELD FROM 700 TO 300 HPA
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA TROF MOVES
TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE 500 HPA
HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST...MAKING THE HEIGHT
FIELD ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKEN...AND SETTING UP
MORE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PEARSALL.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN STILL SHOW
IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS...IN A PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 500 HPA RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE
FROM TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA
TROF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND NOT MOVE AWAY QUICKLY IN THE
LIGHT WIND FIELD ALOFT...TYPICAL OF JULY. WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS INCREASING AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...KEPT A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK FRONT OR MESO
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY...KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AS THE
WEAKNESS THE HEIGHT FIELD FROM THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF CONTINUES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD VARY FROM
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM
DATA AND FORECASTS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF NEAR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 75 95 75 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 94 73 92 / 10 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 94 74 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 96 72 93 / 10 10 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 73 92 73 91 / 30 20 30 30 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 95 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 96 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
246 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THIS MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE AREA
WERE ABOUT 170-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING A LITTLE FOR SUN...AS THE
MONSOON MSTR PLUME REMAINS OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUN.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE HYR TRRN TODAY AND WITH
THE ABUNDANT MSTR OVR THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY...PROBABLY
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON. ALL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WL PROBABLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THEN BY AFTERNOON SUN...WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING A THREAT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ON SUN...WITH THE HYR TRRN AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT THE NEW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL RUNS AND SEE WHICH AREAS THEY ARE SHOWING THE HIGHEST HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POTENTIAL. A WATCH WL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
WHAT AREAS GET HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THE NSSL 4KM WRF IS SHOWING THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY BEING BETWEEN ABOUT 7 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING THROUGH
ABOUT 9 PM.
.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A DRIER MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A SLOW
MOVING UPPER VORT MAX WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL SEND A BOUNDARY SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND TURN FLOW
MORE NORTHEASTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO
NEAR LAMAR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL. MODELS VARY ON WHEN THEY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AT
LEAST LOW POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE CWA. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BECOME EMINENT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH SHIFTS EAST INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
RETURN TO DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRINGS A
RETURN TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH FORCES THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE BACK INTO THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF PCPN WL DECREASE...BUT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ060-061-065>068-
081-084-085.
&&
$$
28/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
459 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND
PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
WITH SEVERAL WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC, WE ARE GOING TO ADD A FEW COUNTIES
CLOSER TO PHILADELPHIA IN THE EXITING WATCH, NO EXTENTION OF TIME.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AND UNCHANGED AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR
AREA TONIGHT.
THE MCS MOVED ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ONLY SOME LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. A DECENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW
DEGREES AND BRING A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND BUT IT WON`T LAST LONG.
THE EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WE WILL REMAIN VERY WARM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 70S BUT IN THE
URBAN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER CLOSER TO 80.
THE FIRST SHOT OF CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AIRMASS
DOMINATED BY CIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. WHILE THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MECHANICAL TRIGGER TO RELEASE THE INSTABILITY...AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE SINCE THE FIRST SHOT.
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION...WHICH WAS THE
REMNANT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA WHERE CIN HAS BEEN REMOVED...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS
SHOWED THAT BULK SHEAR INCREASING AS WELL...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACCOMPANIES THE CONVECTION.
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTH LEHIGH
VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BY ABOUT
2200 UTC. BY THAT TIME...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE SHED MOST
OF ITS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP. THE INCREASING SHEAR SUGGESTS MULTIPLE CELL
STRUCTURE (AS WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR NOW).
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CAPE PROFILE...INCREASING WIND
SHEAR...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. LARGE HAIL MAY BE A TOUGH SELL...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15000 FEET AND HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO COOL OFF A BIT AND
BEGIN TO DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
90S FOR ONE MORE DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS
DELMARVA, WILL HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE A BIT LONGER AND HAVE ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABOUT PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
VALUES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THEN MORE SO TO POINTS FROM PHILADELPHIA ON
SOUTH. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS NOT AS SOLID AS THE WRF-NMMB AND ITS
VERIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION WAS OFF TO A POOR START. COMBINED
WITH NO CORROBORATIVE SUPPORT FROM THE CAN GGEM OR UKMET, THE LONG
TERM LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF THAN THE GFS THRU THE END OF ITS
MODEL RUN AND MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THE REST
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN SUMMARY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND THEN A LIKELY BACKING OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN ITS JULY AND
HOW STUBBORNLY HOT THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD STRUGGLING SOLUTION TO VERIFY. SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THE FORECAST OUTCOME NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWEST CENTRAL. WHILE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING, THE BACKING FLOW SHOULD MAKE IT MORE
HUMID LATE IN THE WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MAX
TEMPS TO REACH 90F.
THE MESOSCALE MODELING DID NOT HAVE THE INITIAL MCS AROUND NY/NJ/PA
AND THE HRRR VERSIONS THAT DID ARE TOO ROBUST BEYOND THEM. THEY ALL
HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION ASIDE, THE SLOWING FRONT AND
STILL AMPLY HOT AIR MASS SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST CONTINUE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT SEEING UPSTREAM CAPPING BEYOND TODAY FOR
THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE LESSER CHANCES OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
MIN TEMPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY WARM AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT LOSING ALL
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING LESS OF A CAP SOUTH THAN
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE DELINEATION NEAR THE PA TURNPIKE AND
INTERSTATE 195 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CLOSE TO WHERE POPS WERE CUT OFF.
POPS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH IN DELMARVA WITH LESS
CAPPING PREDICTED AND HIER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE SUN THAN WHAT THE GFS IS
PREDICTING AND THUS MAX TEMPS LEANED TOWARD HIGHER NAM MOS.
ITS PRETTY MUCH A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHERE THE CAPPING OF CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE PHL
METRO AREA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H250 JET REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH, NOT SO NORTH ALONG THE HIER TERRAIN AS THE
GFS HAS DEPICTED ON TUESDAY DAY. BECAUSE OF CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH MINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WE REALLY DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT BRING MORE
CLARITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BACK MORE TOWARD OUR
CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WE DID UP POPS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WAS A BLEND OF LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE ON OUR OWN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND MAKES IT
WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN HAZE, AS THE HOT, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING IT
WILL JUST CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT IT MAY
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...REMAINING CONVECTION MAY AGAIN CAUSE SCATTERED
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN SITES. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THAT ARE FROM KPHL SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CONTINUES ON ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE
OCEAN. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
AS LONG AS NO SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF SUCH A LOW DEVELOPING ARE SMALL,
BUT THE CHANCES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
AND CAUSING SOME RISE IN SEAS IS PRETTY GOOD AS THE PERIOD WEARS
ON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXES FOR OUR EIGHT CLI SITES FOR JULY 7TH...
SO FAR NEW RECORDS WERE SET AT GEORGETOWN AND ATLANTIC CITY AND
READING TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH.
KACY 98 1986,2010
KPHL 103 2010
KILG 103 2010
KABE 99 2010
KTTN 103 2010
KGED 97 2010
KRDG 101 2010
KMPO 95 1908
BELOW ARE ALL TIME RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR LCD SITES...
KABE 105 7/3/1966
KACY 106 6/28/1969
KPHL 106 8/7/1918
KILG 107 8/7/1918
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012>014-016-020>027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HAYES/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
CLIMATE...KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND
PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
WITH SEVERAL WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AND UNCHANGED AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR
AREA TONIGHT.
THE MCS MOVED ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ONLY SOME LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. A DECENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW
DEGREES AND BRING A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND BUT IT WON`T LAST LONG.
THE EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WE WILL REMAIN VERY WARM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 70S BUT IN THE
URBAN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER CLOSER TO 80.
THE FIRST SHOT OF CONVECTION DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AIRMASS
DOMINATED BY CIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. WHILE THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MECHANICAL TRIGGER TO RELEASE THE INSTABILITY...AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE SINCE THE FIRST SHOT.
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION...WHICH WAS THE
REMNANT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA WHERE CIN HAS BEEN REMOVED...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS
SHOWED THAT BULK SHEAR INCREASING AS WELL...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ACCOMPANIES THE CONVECTION.
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTH LEHIGH
VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BY ABOUT
2200 UTC. BY THAT TIME...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE SHED MOST
OF ITS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP. THE INCREASING SHEAR SUGGESTS MULTIPLE CELL
STRUCTURE (AS WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR NOW).
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CAPE PROFILE...INCREASING WIND
SHEAR...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. LARGE HAIL MAY BE A TOUGH SELL...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15000 FEET AND HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO COOL OFF A BIT AND
BEGIN TO DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
90S FOR ONE MORE DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS
DELMARVA, WILL HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE A BIT LONGER AND HAVE ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABOUT PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
VALUES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND THEN MORE SO TO POINTS FROM PHILADELPHIA ON
SOUTH. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS NOT AS SOLID AS THE WRF-NMMB AND ITS
VERIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION WAS OFF TO A POOR START. COMBINED
WITH NO CORROBORATIVE SUPPORT FROM THE CAN GGEM OR UKMET, THE LONG
TERM LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF THAN THE GFS THRU THE END OF ITS
MODEL RUN AND MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THE REST
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN SUMMARY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND THEN A LIKELY BACKING OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN ITS JULY AND
HOW STUBBORNLY HOT THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD STRUGGLING SOLUTION TO VERIFY. SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THE FORECAST OUTCOME NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWEST CENTRAL. WHILE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING, THE BACKING FLOW SHOULD MAKE IT MORE
HUMID LATE IN THE WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MAX
TEMPS TO REACH 90F.
THE MESOSCALE MODELING DID NOT HAVE THE INITIAL MCS AROUND NY/NJ/PA
AND THE HRRR VERSIONS THAT DID ARE TOO ROBUST BEYOND THEM. THEY ALL
HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION ASIDE, THE SLOWING FRONT AND
STILL AMPLY HOT AIR MASS SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST CONTINUE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT SEEING UPSTREAM CAPPING BEYOND TODAY FOR
THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE LESSER CHANCES OF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
MIN TEMPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY WARM AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT LOSING ALL
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING LESS OF A CAP SOUTH THAN
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE DELINEATION NEAR THE PA TURNPIKE AND
INTERSTATE 195 CORRIDOR. THIS IS CLOSE TO WHERE POPS WERE CUT OFF.
POPS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH IN DELMARVA WITH LESS
CAPPING PREDICTED AND HIER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE SUN THAN WHAT THE GFS IS
PREDICTING AND THUS MAX TEMPS LEANED TOWARD HIGHER NAM MOS.
ITS PRETTY MUCH A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHERE THE CAPPING OF CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE PHL
METRO AREA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H250 JET REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH, NOT SO NORTH ALONG THE HIER TERRAIN AS THE
GFS HAS DEPICTED ON TUESDAY DAY. BECAUSE OF CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH MINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WE REALLY DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT BRING MORE
CLARITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BACK MORE TOWARD OUR
CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WE DID UP POPS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WAS A BLEND OF LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE ON OUR OWN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND MAKES IT
WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN HAZE, AS THE HOT, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING IT
WILL JUST CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPHL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT IT MAY
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...REMAINING CONVECTION MAY AGAIN CAUSE SCATTERED
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN SITES. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THAT ARE FROM KPHL SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CONTINUES ON ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE
OCEAN. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
AS LONG AS NO SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF SUCH A LOW DEVELOPING ARE SMALL,
BUT THE CHANCES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
AND CAUSING SOME RISE IN SEAS IS PRETTY GOOD AS THE PERIOD WEARS
ON.
&&
BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXES FOR OUR EIGHT CLI SITES FOR JULY 7TH...
SO FAR NEW RECORDS WERE SET AT GEORGETOWN AND ATLANTIC CITY AND
READING TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH.
KACY 98 1986,2010
KPHL 103 2010
KILG 103 2010
KABE 99 2010
KTTN 103 2010
KGED 97 2010
KRDG 101 2010
KMPO 95 1908
BELOW ARE ALL TIME RECORDS FOR OUR FOUR LCD SITES...
KABE 105 7/3/1966
KACY 106 6/28/1969
KPHL 106 8/7/1918
KILG 107 8/7/1918
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012>014-016-020>027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HAYES/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/MEOLA
CLIMATE...KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
620 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
07/21Z RAP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE CAP IS
PROVING TOO MUCH FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. A FEW
BRIEF...LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS...BUT HAVE NOT REALLY AMOUNTED TO TOO
MUCH WITH NO LIGHTNING DETECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND WITH
ONLY VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SUSPECT
THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. HAVE UPDATED THE
TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
THE CIRRUS BAND TO THE NORTH LOOKS RATHER THIN ON SATELLITE SO
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE. THE
REMAINING GRIDDED PARAMETERS LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THEREFORE...THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH NEAR 90 DEGREES EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND THE SEABREEZE COULD ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...BUT A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE MID 70S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY. CHANCES
APPEAR SLIGHTLY BETTER TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY...AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP INLAND AND BOUNDARIES INTERACT
WITH THE SEABREEZE. ALSO...INSTABILITY FACTORS APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL
APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED TO OUR WEST WHILE A SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NC/SC AND STALLS LATE WEEK. ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD
KEEP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SEA BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15-20
KT TONIGHT...VEERING TOWARD THE W/SW AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
LATE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4
FT BEYOND 20 NM.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
INLAND SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE USUAL LATE NIGHT SURGE WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
AROUND SUNRISE. GENERALLY SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET. NO SCAS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR/JHP
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL FIRE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE
OF SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR QUINCY
ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON 15Z WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS CENTER OF HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS A RESULT...THINK
GREATEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND ZERO POPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. FURTHER WEST ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOST MODELS KEEP THINGS COMPLETELY DRY...THE 12Z HRRR HINTS AT A
FEW STORMS AROUND THE AREA LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO CARRY ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET...WITH READINGS GENERALLY REACHING THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NE AT 5
TO 10KT DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON 12Z NAM FROPA TIMING...HAVE
INTRODUCED WIND SHIFT TO THE NE AT KPIA BY 02Z...THEN FURTHER
SOUTH TO KSPI AND KDEC BY 05Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED MINIMAL
AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AFTER 13Z.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT THE PAST FIVE DAYS SINCE TUE.
LEANED TOWARD WARMER MET HIGHS WHICH ARE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO
HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS OF 100-108F AND HEAT
INDICES PEAKING NEAR 110F IN THE AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE
LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION RANGING FROM 104-109F ALL SET
IN 1936. HEAT WAVE DUE TO VERY STRONG 596 DM 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL THAT AFFECTS IL ONE MORE DAY.
INTRODUCED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW CWA AND ALSO NORTH OF PEORIA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NW IA...SE NEBRASKA AND NW KS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND THRU SE IL SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE 20-40% CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO SE IL SUNDAY WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN SE IL SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE GOING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SE OF I-70. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN FAR SE IL MONDAY AS BEST CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM CENTRAL/SE IL.
COOLER HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CENTRAL IL AND 90-95 IN
SE IL WHERE HEAT INDICES PEAK AROUND 100F.
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
THE NE SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TO RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF AREA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 AND WARMEST
READINGS IN SW AREAS. MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST OR THE NEW ALLBLEND DATA.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
946 AM CDT
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION UP THE LAKE FLIPPED WINDS TO ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. HAVE REFLECTED THIS TREND IN NEW PUBLISHED GRIDS...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT ORD/MDW ALREADY HAVING REACHED THE LOW/MID 90S.
BASED OFF TRENDS AT SITES JUST NORTH OF THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF TO THE LOW/MID 80S AT SITES JUST AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
UPPER 70S ON THE LAKEFRONT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST INDIANA...BEFORE
RECOVERING SOME AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT...WHICH IS STILL
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WILL STILL REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S/LOW 100S ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. THEN THE SYNOPTIC
COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA AT 18 TO 19Z...WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AT INLAND SITES AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
COOLING TREND AT NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE IS THE STREAK OF
100 DEGREE DAYS AT ORD SHOULD END...BUT ROCKFORD AREA HAS A
DISTINCT CHANCE OF REACHING 100 AGAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS...BASED OFF MINIMAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC COOL
FRONT...LOWERED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CANT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
BEFORE THE ELEVATED COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
511 AM CDT
I MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE SHORE THIS MORNING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MKX AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 AM CDT
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI...JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SOUTH ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COUNTIES FIRST...AS A LAKE BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HYBRID BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF MY CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
NEAR CHICAGO AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...I THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN TODAY. IN
FACT...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CHICAGO AREA COULD
HIT 100 AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE AREA
HAS BEEN HITTING 100 BY THE NOON TO 1 PM TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TODAY COULD BE A REPEAT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...IT WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS
IN CHICAGO. THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS RUN THROUGH 21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH 00 UTC FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
TIMES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MY NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 80 BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AS IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK INITIALLY AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WI. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MICROBURSTS. THUS...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED WIND THREATS WITH ANY
AFTERNOON STORMS.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGE SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS PLENTIFUL IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...AS BUFFER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSES
RATES JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT
COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS PW`S WILL BE AROUND
1.7 INCHES.
STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 50S...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AGAIN TO NEAR 90 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS VERY LOW.
IN FACT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
459 PM CDT
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR SATURDAY JULY 7TH...
CHICAGO MAX T...102 IN 1980....HIGH MIN T 78/1876.
ROCKFORD MAX T...105 IN 1936...HIGH MIN T...75/1928.
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24 1934
AND IN ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF
1947...AND JULY 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 2012.
FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS 16-18 KT INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
* MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
* LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
OUTFLOW/LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY HAS NOW PASSED ORD/MDW/GYY BRINGING
WINDS TO EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS ORD/MDW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT
GYY. A COOL FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY HELP ORD/MDW WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST BUT WILL TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WITH THE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
LAKE COOLING THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM RFD TO JOT TO RZL AND
POINTS SOUTH...WITH LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS SOME UPPER FORCING WORKS IN. WILL KEEP TAFS DRY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
TS OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE
WI LAKE SHORE. AS OF 11Z THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE IT AS FAR S ALONG
THE SHORE AS RACINE WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MI MID-LAKE BUOY ENE OF
KENOSHA SHOWING A LIGHT NW WIND. WHILE PROGRESS DOWN THE LAKE HAD
LOST SOME MOMENTUM DURING THE PRE-DAWN PER DECREASING GUSTINESS
BEHIND IT THERE SHOULD BE NOTHING TO PROHIBIT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS 88D AND TERMINAL DOPPLERS AS WELL AS PROFILERS ACROSS
THE REGION NOW ALL SHOWING AN INCREASING WNW TO NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
10Z RUC MODEL DEPICTION OF FRONT ARRIVING AT BOTH ORD AND MDW AT
17Z LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN HOW FAR DOWN THE LAKE IT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT. WITH 06Z GFS RUN ALSO NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PAST
GYY...MDW AND ORD BY 18Z FEEL CONFIDENT IN MOVING UP PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCURS IT WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR NE IL AND NW IND 17-18Z THE THREAT OF
TS WILL BE FURTHER INLAND...TO THE SE THROUGH W OF THE CHI AREA
TERMINALS AS COOLER LOW LEVELS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOW TSRA POTENTIAL AND THAT BULK OF ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
438 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
S AND CLEAR THE S END OF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N AND GUST AT 20 TO
25 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE ON THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE
NE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF MI. MODERATELY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO THIS EVENING...AND
ON SOUTHERN LAKE MI INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER BREEZES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE..STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATER TODAY AS THE N WINDS INCREASE...AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE WAVES ON THE FAR S END
OF THE LAKE SUBSIDE AS N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014...4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON
MONDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002...4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON
MONDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FALLS CITY TO SOUTH OF CONCORDIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LAY FROM OSKALOOSA THROUGH
TOPEKA AND HERINGTON. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA SAVE THE NORTHWEST CORNER. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CONVERGENCE FROM DODGE CITY
NORTHEAST TO NEAR TOPEKA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SURFACE BASED CAPE RUNNING IN
THE 1500 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOW INVERTED V SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY TOUCH
OFF SOME MORE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. ALSO COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS OF
HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WILL ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 FOR POOLING OF DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S WHICH IF IT OCCURS COULD PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND
100 DEGREES.
53
POST FRONTAL AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 850 MB WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE MAINLY SITUATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING SUNDAY MOST AREAS AND WITH MORE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES) WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK WAVE AS UPPER FLOW
TRIES TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EVENING AND SOUTH OF
I-70...THEN CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST ON MONDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF THE
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT ALSO INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AS EASTERLY LLVL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND HEIGHT RISES INCREASE...SHOULD SEE
TEMPS START TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BACK
INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.
63
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT TERMINALS WITH SAT IMAGERY NOTING MVFR CIGS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TRACKING SOUTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH FROM 5 TO 10 KTS
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH RES MODELS GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS
IN VC AFTER 21Z AT KMHK AND 22Z AT KTOP/KFOE. HOWEVER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH LACK OF DECENT WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LEAD TO KEEP VCTS FOR 18Z
ISSUANCE.
BOWEN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ010>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
MODEL CONVECTION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SYNOPTIC MASS
FIELDS TO SUBJECTIVELY DETERMINE HIGHER POP AREAS PER 12Z MODEL
RUNS. HOWEVER IN VERY SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT
HANDLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR. 18Z NAM IS ALSO IN THE BALLPARK.
ADJUSTED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 1200 UTC RAOBS SUGGEST LESS
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...WITH ROUGHLY A 1000 J/KILOGRAM
CAPE AND NOT A LOT OF CIN. LEAD WIND SHIFT PUSHED THROUGH KHUT BY
MIDDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST INTO KRSL. WITH WEAK/
DISORGANIZED FLOW...EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. COULD
EASILY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FESTER
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE KS.
SUN-MON:
WITH PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES AND DISORGANIZED FRONT IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HARD
PRESSED TO PIN DOWN HIGHER CHANCES/AREAS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
SOME HINTS IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ROLL OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLIP FAR WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK
MON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION AND GFS/ECMWF
MUCH LESS. APPEARS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK DURING
THE NIGHT AND ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST MAY BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
COLD POOL. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ON MON MORNING IN FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER BOTH
DAYS LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
LATEST MODELS SHOW FRONT HANGING UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ALONG OK BORDER THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP STATUS QUO AND LET MIDSHIFT REEVALUATE.
WED-SAT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER FLOW.
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES...
LEAVING FORECAST AREA NORTHWEST-NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND LOCATED
BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMALS. IN ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OR SIGNIFICANT INFLUX
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FOCUS (NO PUN INTENDED) IS ON BEHAVIOR OF COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG EVER SO SLOWLY SSE ACROSS CNTRL KS AT MID-DAY. AS THIS DISCUSSION
IS BEING TYPED IT APPEARED THE FRONT HAD JUST REACHED KHUT AS THEIR
WINDS HAVE SLOWLY SHIFTED FROM W TO N FROM 14Z-17Z. CAP IS ERODING AND
AS SUCH EXPECT HIGH-LEVEL CU TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MID-UPR DYNAMICS REMAIN FEEBLE. AS SUCH EXPECT ANY -TSRA
THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING TO BE SCATTERED
& POORLY ORGANIZED. MINIMAL COVERAGE DICTATES KEEPING TSRA OUT OF ALL
TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 94 73 90 / 20 30 30 20
HUTCHINSON 75 93 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
NEWTON 75 93 72 91 / 20 30 30 10
ELDORADO 74 94 72 91 / 30 30 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 96 76 90 / 30 30 30 20
RUSSELL 72 91 69 88 / 40 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 72 92 69 87 / 40 40 40 30
SALINA 76 91 73 90 / 40 30 30 10
MCPHERSON 74 92 70 91 / 30 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 77 93 74 89 / 30 30 30 20
CHANUTE 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
IOLA 77 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-067>072-
083-092>096-098>100.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-
048-049.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1155 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
14Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 595 DM H5 RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...WITH PV ANOMALY NOTED ALONG THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER CENTERED NEAR KLIC. 15Z SFC OBS INDICATED COLD FRONT
HAD PROGRESSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LATEST OBS INDICATING
IT HAD MOVED THROUGH HLC AND TRB. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED FAIRLY DEEP
FRONTAL ZONE HAD MOVED THROUGH KLBF WITH FRONTAL INVERSION NOTED UP
TO H75 AND WITH A 11C TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT H85. WHILE A NOTICEABLE
COOL DOWN ALSO NOTED AT DNR...OVERALL AIR MASS AT DDC HAD CHANGED
LITTLE FROM 12Z YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AND IMPACT OF
FROPA ON AFTERNOON TEMPS.
TODAY...WITH FAIRLY DEEP COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA...THINK
RATHER DRAMATIC COOL DOWN IN TEMPS STILL LOOK IN ORDER WITH BIGGEST
AREA OF CONCERN ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA WHERE COOLER AIR
WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO ACTUAL SFC FRONT.
LOOKING AT CURRENT TEMPS/QUICKLY ERODING SKY COVER AND LATEST DATA
THINK BUMPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IS IN ORDER IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THINK
ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SFC
HEATING AND WILL BE RATHER UNORGANIZED AND SPOTTY. LATEST HIGH-RES
DATA GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND HAVE NUDGED FORECAST IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE PRIOR TO
12Z.
TONIGHT...FAIRLY COMPLICATED FORECAST AS OVERALL FORCING UNDER LARGE
SCALE RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AS OVERALL FLOW PRETTY LIGHT...BUT
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED TO EVEN
ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FORCED ASCENT TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA TO THE NORTH OF FRONT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH. HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
ANY SIG PV ANOMALIES NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF SW TROUGH APPARENT ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AT
16Z. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND EXPECTED INSTABILITY PATTERN...HARD TO
RULE OUT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR NOT HAVING A THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LIMIT HIGHEST CHANCES TO NORTHWESTERN CWA
WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO WEAK SW TROUGH. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS...ABOVE FREEZING LAYER > 15000 FT
AND PRECIPITATELY WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING A DEFINITE CONCERN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
CWA HAS BEEN WITHOUT PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LATEST DATA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES SHOULD
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BECOME MORE LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS ALONG/OVER EACH
COAST. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PACIFIC.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
OF THE RIDGE. FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL. MODELS WERE ALSO CLOSE AT MID
LEVELS WITH THE UKMET...CANADIAN...SREF AND GFS DOING SLIGHTLY
BETTER. CURRENTLY COLD POOL IS SHOVING FRONT IN A LITTLE
FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE RUC WAS CATCHING THIS THE
BEST WITH MAYBE THE NAM AND GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE HRRR WAS
ACTUALLY TOO FAST ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FRONT BUT WAS NOT BAD
WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. MODELS NOT
CATCHING THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WELL. THEY TENDED TO NOT
HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST. HERE THE GFS WAS OUTDOING THE
REST THE UKMET BEHIND IT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PER THE RUC/HRRR WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A
LITTLE FASTER. NEWER ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER.
GUSTY WINDS AND STRATUS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS MORNING. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE FRONT. BASED ON
REALITY AND TRENDS OF NEWER MODEL DATA...WILL BE TAKING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAKING IT COOLER.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE MOVES WELL SOUTH OR GETS DRAPED
ACROSS OR TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THAT WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FLOW/LIFT ON
TOP OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. HARD TO FIND ANYTHING REALLY STRONG TO LIFT THIS AIR MASS.
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUT TO OUR WEST WITH NO REAL STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OR CONVERGENCE. ALSO 700 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAP THE AIR MASS. PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST AND ALONG OUR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP STORM MOVES ARE SLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WAS ILLUSTRATED TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AREA IN UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHAT LOOKS TO BE
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE PERIOD STARTS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT REALLY
HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC AREA. WITH UPSLOPE...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT ON THIS MOIST AIR MASS. AGAIN HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BUT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIFT AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE CUTTING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TOO FAST. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING. WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION THERE IS LOOKS TO END DURING THE EVENING. HOW FAST IT
CLEARS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. AGAIN THINK MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN
MANY PLACES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THERE MAY BE TOO
WARM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CHURNS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRY TO TRAVEL EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THINK THAT IF
ANYTHING MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. A WEAK SURFACE LEE
TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TO MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AFTER 09Z WHEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG INCREASES FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND VERY HUMID ENVIRONMENT...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY STORMS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PMM/BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BE SEEING THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL
FOR THE 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHWARD TRANSITION OF THE RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
POOLING OF DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL STILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL GENERATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
98 AND 104 DEGREES DURING THE PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO REPLACE THE
WARNING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION
THROUGH 6 PM CDT SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND OPAQUE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY...THIS
ADVISORY MAY BE CAN CELLED EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE 12KM HAM-WRF...4KM NAM-WRF /NMM VERSION/...3KM HRRR AND THE
SREF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
EXPLICIT CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ DEVELOPING IN THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AMORPHOUS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BISECT THE WFO PAH CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY...DIVERGENCE FROM THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WEST TENNESSEE...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SHARP
INCREASE IN POPS/WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FLARE UP IN CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST POPS
AND WEATHER WERE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THE INITIAL MODEL
GUIDANCE POPS AND WEATHER...BUT REMAIN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS.
AS THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY EVENING
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW BECOMES ELONGATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THE MEAN AXIS OF POP/WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...INITIALLY
MOVING OUT OF PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS
AND WEATHER ARE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT
SAT JUL 7 2012
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD BACK PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY...GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM...BUT THE GFS AND GEM ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. WILL DEFER TO THE ECMWF AND NAM WHICH HAVE BEEN
PREFERRED OF LATE.
THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
WEAK...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS RATHER BIZARRE TO SEE A TROUGH OF THIS SIZE
WITH A CENTRAL HEIGHT OF 583 OR 584DM. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS NOT MUCH
COOLING...OR THE TROUGH WOULD BE DEEPER. BY FRIDAY...SOME MODELS
CLOSE OFF A LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH IN OUR VICINITY...WHICH ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT AND IS
THEREFORE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...WARMEST AND DRIEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FAVORED THE ECMWF AND WENT A BIT ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND CONFINED POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO SLIGHT
CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO POPS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD FARTHER WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER BY
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER MILD NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PICK AT ALL SITES SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS
SOME DISPUTE AMONGST GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER SOLUTION.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE
HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SOME GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. INSERTED A THICK 9-12KFT LAYER OF CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO REFLECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THERE
IS NO EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER OR PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDIFIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE NSSL WRF...THE SPC
WRF AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS THINKING. THE COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY AS A FINE LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MUSKEGON SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS AND EATON RAPIDS. THE
FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN AREAS FROM
MUSKEGON TO WALKER...BUT THUS FAR NO CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.
MODIFYING THE MORNING DTX SOUNDING TO A 97/70 T/TD YIELDS CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS EITHER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OR THE LAKE BREEZE. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS POST
FRONTAL ALONG AN ELEVATED COLD FRONT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.
IF WE SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR LAKE BREEZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM GRAND RAPIDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD EATON RAPIDS AS RADAR IS INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF REFLECTIVITY FOR A BOUNDARY (20-25 DBZ) IN SPOTS.
AFTER TONIGHT...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. LOOKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WX. IT
APPEARS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTER OF THE
STATE TOWARD LAN AND JXN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE MID RANGE MODELS... IN GOOD AGREEMENT... CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOVE
TO A COOLER REGIME. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST... AS UPPER TROUGHING WORKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL WORK IT/S WAY SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED FOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE JXN TAF SITE
UNTIL 01Z.
THE COLD FRONT CLOUD BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
I-96 TO I-94 AREA AS I WRITE THIS AROUND 2245Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS (NOT MUCH LIGHTING WITH THE CELLS) WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
NAM12 SHOWS STRONG LIFT IN THE 950 TO 925 MB LAYER WERE THE
SHOWERS WERE AT 21Z... THIS AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 03Z. THAT WILL END ANY RISK OF RAIN FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT SHOW MUCH CLOUD POTENTIAL BEHIND THE
FRONT SO BY 03Z MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CLEAR OR NEAR CLEAR
SKIES. LAN AND JXN MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY BUT EVEN THERE BY 09Z OR SO SKIES
SHOULD GO CLEAR. JUST A NORTH WIND BELOW 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
CONTINUING THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
IS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WEBCAMS SHOWING A LOT OF WHITE CAPS AT MUSKEGON AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS REPORTING 4.8 FOOT WAVES AT 250 PM. THE
MUSKEGON GLERL BUOY IS BACK IN THE WATER AND IT IS INDICATING MAX
WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND BUILDING. SO...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE WAVES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THE 3-5 FOOTERS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH HAVEN AND
ST. JOSEPH THIS EVENING. THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA/BH.S CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HOLLAND MAY SEE WINDS AND WAVES PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE FLOW COMES BACK NORTHERLY AGAIN FROM OFF
SHORE.
AFTER SUNDAY....HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW...AS THE BULK OF THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS APPEAR DRY. NOT GOOD FOR
THOSE NEEDING RAIN WHICH IS MOST AREAS.
ONLY REAL HYDRO CONCERN ARE THE POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH
WOULD PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GRR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 98 SET IN 1936 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 98 SO FAR WHICH TIES THE RECORD.
MKG RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 93 SET IN 1897 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 92 SO FAR TODAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ056-064-
071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
CLIMATE...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 BEFORE
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE NSSL WRF...THE SPC
WRF AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS THINKING. THE COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY AS A FINE LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MUSKEGON SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS AND EATON RAPIDS. THE
FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN AREAS FROM
MUSKEGON TO WALKER...BUT THUS FAR NO CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.
MODIFYING THE MORNING DTX SOUNDING TO A 97/70 T/TD YIELDS CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS EITHER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OR THE LAKE BREEZE. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS POST
FRONTAL ALONG AN ELEVATED COLD FRONT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.
IF WE SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR LAKE BREEZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM GRAND RAPIDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD EATON RAPIDS AS RADAR IS INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF REFLECTIVITY FOR A BOUNDARY (20-25 DBZ) IN SPOTS.
AFTER TONIGHT...THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. LOOKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WX. IT
APPEARS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTER OF THE
STATE TOWARD LAN AND JXN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE MID RANGE MODELS... IN GOOD AGREEMENT... CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOVE
TO A COOLER REGIME. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST... AS UPPER TROUGHING WORKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL WORK IT/S WAY SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
ISOLATED IFR OR MVFR. WIND WILL BE TURNING NORTH MOSTLY BELOW 15
KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
CONTINUING THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
IS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ALONG THE COAST...WITH
WEBCAMS SHOWING A LOT OF WHITE CAPS AT MUSKEGON AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS REPORTING 4.8 FOOT WAVES AT 250 PM. THE
MUSKEGON GLERL BUOY IS BACK IN THE WATER AND IT IS INDICATING MAX
WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT THE PRESENT TIME AND BUILDING. SO...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE WAVES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THE 3-5 FOOTERS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH HAVEN AND
ST. JOSEPH THIS EVENING. THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA/BH.S CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HOLLAND MAY SEE WINDS AND WAVES PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE FLOW COMES BACK NORTHERLY AGAIN FROM OFF
SHORE.
AFTER SUNDAY....HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW...AS THE BULK OF THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS APPEAR DRY. NOT GOOD FOR
THOSE NEEDING RAIN WHICH IS MOST AREAS.
ONLY REAL HYDRO CONCERN ARE THE POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH
WOULD PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
GRR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 98 SET IN 1936 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 98 SO FAR WHICH TIES THE RECORD.
MKG RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 93 SET IN 1897 AND 1988.
WE HAVE REACHED 92 SO FAR TODAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ056-064-
071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
CLIMATE...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INLAND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS HAS MOVED SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS. THESE CLOUDS SLOWED THE UPWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE MORE THAN
COMPENSATING WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...PUSHING THE HEAT INDEX TO 105 OR GREATER. THINK TEMPS WILL
WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
EXPANDING EAST PER LATEST RAP MODEL AND PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...THINK ANY CONVECTION ALONG WHATEVER SEA BREEZE THAT
FORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POP IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
ONLY CHANGE FROM PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL BE MIN TEMPS HOLDING
AROUND 74-77 OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT SW WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT DUE TO TIGHTENING OF INLAND PIEDMONT TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER...EVEN THERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 110-115 ALL
AREAS SO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT ALONG WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROF SETTLING
IN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME TIME A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALL
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
THE TAFS. MOSTLY CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY LATE NIGHT MVFR CATEGORY FOG/HAZE WITH VSBYS IN THE 3
TO 5 MILE RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z PER LAST FEW NIGHT. WITH
EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE HEAT RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...WOULD EXPECT EVEN FEWER CLOUDS AND CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA...LINGERING INTO LATE WEEK. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...ONLY REAL CHANGE TO MARINE FORECAST IS A
SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTIONS TO MORE SW PER LATEST BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY WHICH CONTINUES TO REPORT ABOUT 5 FEET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 230 AM SAT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
FOR ALL WATERS PLUS BOTH SOUNDS. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
IN FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND ACROSS THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET IN THE WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO REACH 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH A RESULTING
SUBSIDING OF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DATES OF PREVIOUS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR LOCAL CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW.
NEW BERN...RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948
7/7 - 98 (2010 AND 1987)
7/8 - 99 (1986)
CAPE HATTERAS...RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893
7/7 - 94 (2010)
7/8 - 94 (1987)
BEAUFORT...RECORDS BEGAN IN 2000
7/7 - 97 (2010)
7/8 - 90 (2005)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
CLIMATE...DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THAT
BEING SAID... THERE ARE HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY
AFFECT SOME AIRPORTS /ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT TAF SITES
TO MENTION/ WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
WIND SHEAR IF ONE MOVES TOO CLOSE. AND WINDS.. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
LIGHT.. WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DUE TO WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM THE
MORNING STORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...EXTENDS FROM GULF COAST STATES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...COVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS WOULD
INDICATE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A FEW TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A KOKC TO KSPS LINE AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT
FROM TSRA/SHRA APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO
NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST
PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 20 20 20 40
HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 10 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 20 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 20 20 20 40
DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 40 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A WEAK IMPULSE/MOISTURE SURGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
IS BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WELL
OVERDONE...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA. IT CONTINUES THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY NEAR THE SURFACE SO ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE ECHOES ARE NOT EVEN PRODUCING RAIN
THAT REACHES THE GROUND. NONETHELESS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
18Z NAM COMING IN WITH A SHARPER WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AND IT A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
NOW...ALTHOUGH STILL RATHER LIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD GET SOMETHING GOING. DEWPOINTS ALSO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH...IF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THERE IS A VERY WEAK
IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDING SOUTHEAST...MUCH LIKE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE OVERALL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME MINOR
ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO ALLBLEND ADVERTISING
SCHC/CHC POPS IN SEVERAL PERIODS. PER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE
TRIED TO REMOVE OR LOWER POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION VIA NORTHWEST ALOFT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...BELIEVE LITTLE/IF ANY PCPN WILL
OCCUR IN THE THIS CWA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ADDED LLM...ALONG WITH AN OPEN WAVE A
H5 MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS AT H7 WARMING INTO THE TEENS ABOVE C. THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS SHOWING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WHICH
SEEMS REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES IN THIS CWA. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
MVFR CIGS SOUTHWEST OF KPIR/KMBG THAT MAY BRIEFLY MIGRATE INTO
THE REGION AND AFFECT TAF SITES. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012
.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE
AND CHANCE OF IMPACT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS. VFR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. LCL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN TSRA. A PERIOD OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL REMOVE MVFR
CIGS FROM TAFS DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INHIBITING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN SYNTHETIC FOG/LOW
CLOUD PRODUCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...MAINLY FROM
THE S AND SE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FCST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM...12Z RUC AND
00Z HIRES SOLUTIONS ALL FCST LOW QPF ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA AS DEPICTED BY THE BLENDED
TOTAL PW PRODUCT. REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
AVIATION...
A STRATUS DECK AT 1100-1500FT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPO FILLING-IN TO BKN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE AND INLAND PROGRESSION AS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED...BUT AREAL COVERAGE STILL REMAINS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION AT KSAT/KSSF/KAUS AT THIS TIME. SFC
WINDS THIS MORNING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SW-RLY
COMPONENT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE BEFORE 17Z. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS SINCE MID MAY...
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM FORECAST
SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING FOR LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY...THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FIELD FROM 700 TO 300 HPA
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA TROF MOVES
TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ON SUNDAY THE 500 HPA
HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST...MAKING THE HEIGHT
FIELD ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKEN...AND SETTING UP
MORE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PEARSALL.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN STILL SHOW
IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS...IN A PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 500 HPA RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE
FROM TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY A WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA
TROF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND NOT MOVE AWAY QUICKLY IN THE
LIGHT WIND FIELD ALOFT...TYPICAL OF JULY. WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS INCREASING AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...KEPT A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK FRONT OR MESO
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY...KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AS THE
WEAKNESS THE HEIGHT FIELD FROM THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF CONTINUES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD VARY FROM
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM
DATA AND FORECASTS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF NEAR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 75 95 75 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 94 73 92 / 10 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 94 74 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 96 72 93 / 10 10 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 73 92 73 91 / 30 20 30 30 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 95 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 96 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
239 PM PDT Sat Jul 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A big warm up is on the way. Some of the hottest weather in the
last couple of years is anticipated Sunday and Monday. A few
locations in the Inland Northwest will flirt with record heat.
Thunderstorm chances will be slowly increasing through the weekend
and into next week with the greatest risk for thunder in the
short-term arriving Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures remain
above normal through much of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Upper level ridge retrogression will continue overnight
allowing moisture to continue its northward advection toward the
forecast area. This will also result in decreased atmospheric
stability which could bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the Inland NW. Models are consistent in keeping the
best chances reserved for the SE corner of Washington into the
central Idaho Panhandle through the evening. The latest visible
satellite imagery continues shows decent convective development
over the higher terrain of NE Oregon and central Idaho. We suspect
this activity will drift north-northeast during the evening as a
weak upper level disturbance seen on the water vapor imagery over
EC Oregon heads this way. Whether or not the convection can
successfully move off the mountains and maintain its intensity for
thunderstorms this evening across our forecast area is no
given...the latest run of the HRRR suggests this possibility. The
activity should wane by late evening...however there could be
another batch of elevated sprinkles toward morning...over the
extreme southern portion of our forecast area. This activity shows
up in response to a weak shortwave trough...currently off the
central California coast. Not sure convection will come this far
north by daybreak...however at a minimum we will likely see some
accas clouds moving in from the south. fx
Sunday through Tuesday...Reasonable model agreement exists and
satellite extrapolation suggests models have a decent handle on
the field of motion over and upwind of the forecast area through
the end of the short term. In general southerly flow will hold
sway over the region through Sunday and Monday as the forecast
area bakes under the northwest flank of a sprawling upper level
high over the central United States. A surface thermal trough is
now established over the forecast area and will promote light and
largely terrain driven winds through Tuesday. This flow regime
will lead to further increases in temperatures...with most
locations flirting with record high temperatures either on Sunday
or Monday...some locations both days.
Thunderstorm potential will be the tricky part of the forecast. Model
soundings indicate very unstable conditions aloft through Sunday
and Monday...but also indicate a few hundred Joules of CIN in the
lower layers which should suppress convection in the absence of any
well defined upper forcing. Thus during the daytime periods the
best convective threat will likely exist over mountains...with the
valleys and basin simply baking under mostly sunny/partly cloudy
skies. Moisture will be very much available with slugs of
impressive precipitable water transiting the region through
Monday. In this air mass the conditions will be ripe for scattered
thunderstorm activity if a forcing agent is available...and
both the NAM and GFS transit a pair of short waves through the
region from south to north on Sunday evening and Monday evening.
The Sunday evening wave appears to bring the highest threat to the
deep basin and Cascades between 00Z and 12Z...while the second
wave focuses it`s dynamic forcing over the southeast and Idaho
Panhandle on Monday evening. While the best chance for nocturnal
convection will lay over these primary threat regions...the air
mass is so unstable aloft...particularly Monday night...that a
stray storm is possible just about anywhere in this flow regime.
By Tuesday the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly and
progressive...still hot but high temperatures should back down a
few degrees on Tuesday not by means of any noticeable cold front
but through a weakening and eastward shift of the thermal trough
axis. The southwesterly flow will help shunt the deep moisture
eastward with a residual thunderstorm threat mainly over the
southeastern zones and Idaho Panhandle...but with coverage
mainly isolated and mainly confined to the mountains due to the
lack of any appreciable forcing. /Fugazzi
Tuesday through Saturday...The region will continue to be under the
influence of a strong ridge of high pressure with temperatures
running several degrees above seasonal normals. Some mid-level
monsoonal moisture will ride the periphery of the 4-corners high,
brushing the southeast zones and fostering some elevated convection
each day starting at the NE Blue Mts and spreading into the Camas
Prairie and Idaho Panhandle Mts. There will also be some weak
impulses of shortwave energy rolling over the top of the ridge that
could kick off some showers and thunderstorms across the northern
tier if there is enough moisture associated with the shortwaves. In
general, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
much of the elevated terrain each day throughout the extended
forecast period. Models are still having difficulties with the
timing of the breakdown of the ridge which may come as early as
Friday, or hold off until the weekend. /Kelch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Interesting scenario coming to the area as good chance of
thunderstorms arrives late Sunday through Monday. The
thunderstorms will produce a good outbreak of lightning but not
sure what impact this will have on the fuels and any potential
fires. If this were a typical year the fuels would be cured over
most locations and it would be an easy decision to issue a broad
brush fire weather watch. However that`s not the case and most of
the fuels are still far from cured. The only exceptions are found
over the Columbia Basin and the valleys in the lee of the southern
Washington Cascades...namely the Kittitas...Yakima...and Wenatchee
Valleys. Over the past couple days we`ve seen two wildfires in the
Cascade Valleys...without any meteorological help so obviously
those fuels are ready. Per agency input...it seems the finer fuels
in these areas are receptive at or below 3.5-4k feet...however
they are having a tough time sustaining at higher elevations in
the heavier fuels. Meanwhile most of the Columbia Basin is
sufficiently dry. So based on the significant lighting threat
...we will go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for Fire Zones
676...677...and 673 for Late Sunday through Monday. Not sure how
far any potential fire starts will get since winds shouldn`t be an
issue. Also based on high precipitable water values...it would
seem most of the storms should produce a decent amount of
rainfall. But based on the number of expected lightning strikes it
seems prudent to issue a watch at this time. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all taf sites through 18z
Sun as ridge continues to build over region. Main wx of
consequence will be associated with an area of potential
instability fixed over SE WA/NC ID. This could support some isold
-tsra...but most of the activity will occur se of KPUW and KLWS
between now and this evening. Overnight...the upper level flow
backs to a southerly orientation which will allow some of this
unstable air to infiltrate the remainder of the TAF sites. Isold
-shra/-tsra will be possible for KLWS KPUW KGEG KSFF and KCOE aft
09-12z...but chances of any hitting these sites is too small to
mention in fcst. For KMWH and KEAT there could be some --shra
during the latter portions of the fcst. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 65 97 67 97 67 95 / 0 10 10 10 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 60 95 62 96 64 93 / 0 10 10 10 30 20
Pullman 58 96 59 95 60 92 / 10 10 20 10 30 20
Lewiston 69 102 70 102 70 101 / 10 20 20 20 30 20
Colville 54 99 59 101 60 98 / 0 10 10 20 30 20
Sandpoint 51 93 56 95 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 30 20
Kellogg 58 94 59 95 59 90 / 20 20 10 10 30 20
Moses Lake 62 102 67 102 66 101 / 0 10 30 20 20 10
Wenatchee 67 100 68 99 68 98 / 0 10 30 20 20 10
Omak 58 100 63 100 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
677)-East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-
East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$