Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/04/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

752 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID ON WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN COMPLETELY END BY
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SHOULD REACH
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
MAY REACH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION AROUND OR AFTER 10
PM...AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THUS FAR...NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THIS
LEADIGN EDGE OF SHOWERS...WITH LATEST RUC13 INDICATING BULK OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN OUR
REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS
CAST SOME DOUBT IN ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AS ONGOING/DEVELOPING MCS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE EXTENDING INTO SE MICHIGAN APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
E/SE...REMAINING CLOSER TO AXIS OF BETTER/DEEPER SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...THIS COULD LIMIT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP CURRENTLY POPS AND MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
NEED TO CUT BACK ON THIS DEPENDING ON OUTCOME OF 00Z/UA ANALYSES.

GIVEN THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO
FALL THIS EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY HOLD
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT HAPPENS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE
ARE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN CAPE VALUES AS WELL AS AREAS
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS
HAS CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIED CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THE NAM IS VIRTUALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE
IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WHILE HEAT INDICES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH 100 DEGREES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO
THE 90S AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THAT WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN THE 4TH WITH THE
HUMIDITY RETURNING BY FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH DEWPOINTS ON FRIDAY RISING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S LATE IN
THE DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOS GUIDANCE. ENTERING A FAIRLY STEADY PATTERN ONCE A COLD FRONT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. EVEN SO...MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...SO LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BY
SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN...WITH NO
MORE THAN SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE
FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
WILL COOL TO HIGHS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS...AND FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
LOWER 60S RESPECTIVELY DURING EARLY JULY.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER 02Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 04Z/WED...CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 10Z-12Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POSSIBILTY OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES APPEARS RATHER SMALL AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
AFFECTING A TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN CURRENT
TAFS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LESS THAN 5 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25
KT...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-FRI NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...RISE TO 80 TO
100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING TO 5
TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT LITTLE OR NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON THE
RIVERS AT THIS TIME. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD BE TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH VERY
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...GJM/11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

820 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.UPDATE (TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTH BY A LARGE AND DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION WITH
GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...KEEPING OUR LOCAL
GRADIENT WEAK. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWED DECENT EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SCATTERING OF STORMS WERE TRIGGERED
BY THESE BOUNDARIES...WHICH ARE NOW RAPIDLY DECAYING AS THE FINAL
CONVERGENCE OF THESE 2 FEATURES IS BASICALLY COMPLETE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL LATER EVENING STORMS THAT TRIGGER ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER TRENDS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WOULD LEAN
TOWARD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR OUTDOOR PLANS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. BEST CHANCES TO STILL SEE A STORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR 2
WOULD BE UP TOWARD SUMTER COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW PUSHING
BACK WESTWARD FROM STORMS NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 11PM UP TOWARD SUMTER COUNTY/INLAND NATURE
COAST ZONES...BUT DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE 20%...OR SILENT 10%
ELSEWHERE. HAVE A FUN AND SAFE EVENING LEADING INTO THE 4TH.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)...
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN SHOULD WIND DOWN
THEREAFTER WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. DURING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT)
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION...
VCTS NEAR LAL THROUGH 02Z OR 03Z OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL AGAIN MAINLY AFFECT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH...WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 92 76 92 / 10 30 10 30
FMY 75 93 74 93 / 10 30 20 40
GIF 75 95 76 95 / 20 30 20 40
SRQ 73 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 30
BKV 69 93 68 93 / 30 20 10 20
SPG 78 92 79 91 / 10 30 10 30

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...JILLSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

156 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND HEAT
AGAIN ON MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH. HRRR FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
EARLIER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE WRF AND NAM SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER AFTER WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AGAIN. WHILE SPC HAD
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY... ONLY THE FAR EAST
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTED MONDAY... HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPS... WHILE TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED... GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
TRENDS. MONDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE THE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY... DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WILL STILL WARRANT AT
LEAST THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REACH HEAT
INDICES OF 110-113 DEGREES THEREFORE A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
SOME RELIEF HERE AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE
STATE WILL BREAK DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WILL NOT QUITE GET INTO THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES
WHILE IN THIS PATTERN BUT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT MEANDER THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURS. EVEN WITHOUT FRONT...ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESP AS MEAN RH
INCREASES ON THURS. PREV FCST NO TOO FAR OFF. DID INCREASE MAX
TEMPS A LITTLE ON TUES AND WED AS CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PULLING DOWN
GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE TOO MUCH. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REMAIN A
PROBLEM ON TUES IF DEW POINTS DONT MIX OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED. HAVENT FORGOTTEN
ABOUT THE TROPICS EITHER. ATLANTIC BASIN LOOKS QUIET PER THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...SOME ACTION LIKELY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT HERE.

SNELSON

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTH
AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. THE LOWEST RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY 10 MPH OR LESS...THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OR
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-01

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897

RECORDS FOR 07-02

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937

RECORDS FOR 07-03

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA AROUND MCN AND AHN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK BETTER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 TSRA AT ALL SITES...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES ARE FOR MCN...CSG
AND AHN. ALTHOUGH PROB30 GOES UNTIL 02/03Z...COULD SEE TSRA LAST
LONGER THAN THAT. WITH OUTFLOW FROM TSRA...WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN
VRB. ALTHOUGH ATL SITES AND AHN HAVE SWITCHED TO EAST
WINDS...SHOULD SEE GENERAL FLOW SWITCH BACK TO WESTERLY FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD AGAIN
PRODUCE VRB WIND. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIMITED TO TSRA...BUT CANT
RULE OUT 5SM OR 6SM AROUND SUNRISE OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER TSRA WILL FORM DIRECTLY AT THE AIRPORT
TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 102 72 99 72 / 20 20 30 20
ATLANTA 99 75 95 75 / 20 20 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 93 67 91 66 / 20 20 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 100 70 96 69 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 100 75 96 76 / 30 30 30 20
GAINESVILLE 99 73 96 73 / 20 20 30 20
MACON 101 73 97 73 / 30 30 30 20
ROME 103 70 98 69 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 98 71 96 69 / 20 20 30 20
VIDALIA 99 78 96 76 / 30 30 30 20

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...
DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
412 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...LARGE SCALE PATTERNS CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS CONUS. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND REACHES HUDSON BAY LATE THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OVER QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE RIDGE CENTER
SHIFTS WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...MUCH WELCOMED NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT WATCH THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY FOR
COOK COUNTY...AND EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY AS WELL.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
DESPITE OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE PER THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NO
CIN...A LACK OF FORCING HAS RESULTED IN PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND A
LACK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND NO CLEAR
FORCING MECHANISM...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE THAT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF OBVIOUS FORCING...BETTING AGAINST
IT.

WE STAY WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT FOR NEAR
80 DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF RUN INDICATES THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAISED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MIXING STRAIGHT DOWN FROM 850 HPA GAVE TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID HUNDREDS ON BOTH DAYS AND DECIDED THAT WAS TOO MUCH
OF AN INCREASE THIS FAR OUT. COULD SEE THURSDAY MAX TEMPS BE EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. EITHER WAY BOTH DAYS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 100. MAX HEAT INDICES ON BOTH DAYS WILL VARY BETWEEN 100 AND
113 DEGREES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS HEAT INDICES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT FOR NEAR 80 DOWNTOWN.

MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TO OUR NORTH AND TRY TO ROLL
DOWN THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WILL FIZZLE BEFORE CROSSING THE
WI/IL BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...KEPT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO LIKELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE LAKE BREEZES COULD PROVIDE LATE
DAY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER DOWNTOWN HITS ITS MAX TEMP.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH RELIEF ARRIVING IN THE
FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS
DEBATABLE WITH THE MODELS DIFFERING ON ITS ARRIVAL. LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF/S STEADY SOLUTION WHICH FEATURES THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS
ON SATURDAY. LOOKING AT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF...EXPECTING FUTURE
FORECASTS TO RAISE TEMPS EVEN FURTHER ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SATURDAY MOST LIKELY REMAINING COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
ONCE AGAIN...TEMPS AND PRECIP ALL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE EXTENDED PRECIP
FORECAST...BUT TO BLEND WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS AND GIVEN HOW FAR
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS...BLENDED IN A LITTLE OF THE GFS. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS BEHIND THE FROPA LOOK NEAR
NORMAL.

JEE

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
TUE 102 78 99 74
1949 1911 1925 1911

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER IN
SPITE OF THIS...THERE WILL BE NO BIG ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES TO
TRIGGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THEREFORE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERALL LOW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TERMINALS WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THEY WERE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
FACT THAT IT MAY NOT PUSH FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS...I HAVE LEFT THE WIND DIRECTION OUT OF THE WEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE LAKE BREEZE IS STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...IT COULD MAKE A RUN FOR ORD AND MDW AFTER 22 UTC ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD TURN THE WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT LAKE BREEZE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR.
* SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

KJB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO THIS EVENING
WILL TRAIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT
SLIDES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE FRONT REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
LOW MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THIS SECOND LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WILL DRAG ANOTHER FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE WEEKEND.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...ILZ014...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9 PM
THURSDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

629 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
412 PM CDT

WE STAY WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT FOR NEAR
80 DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.

JEE

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
TUE 102 78 99 74
1949 1911 1925 1911

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT LAKE BREEZE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR.
* SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

KJB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...ILZ014...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9 PM
THURSDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

347 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
343 PM CDT

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
WELL AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
DESPITE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THUS LIMITING HEAT INDEX VALUES AND KEEPING ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CU
FIELD REALLY BUBBLING UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
WEAK/MODERATE CONVERGENCE IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO
LINGERING BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD CAN BE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AS SLIGHTLY BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT NOTED WITH SOUTHERN PROPAGATION
OF A MID LEVEL WAVE. AS THIS WEAK WAVE SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND ENCOUNTERS THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...AN ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT DOES
REMAIN. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED ARE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
FEATURE CAN BE NOTED IN THIS VICINITY AND WITH A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY MOVE NORTHWARD. OVERALL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
CONTINUES TO REMAIN RATHER LOW...SO ONCE AGAIN ANY SEVERE THREAT
WOULD BE ISOLATED.

AFTER ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...IT DOES
APPEAR AS IF THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF ANOTHER MCS
COMPLEX SHOULD RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

HAVE CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WITH STEERING FLOW KEEPING ANY MID LEVEL FEATURES
WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
LIFTING NORTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. ALSO...SHOULD BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN A MORE SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH QUESTIONS STILL IN PLACE IN
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. CURRENT 12Z
GUIDANCE IN DISAGREEMENT HANDLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD
DROP SOUTH DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN/LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE LATEST NAM/SREF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL INDICATING A FULL
PUSH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL INDICATING THAT THIS
FRONT MIGHT WASH OUT TO THE NORTH BEFORE IT MAKES IT SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HANDLING
THIS BOUNDARY AS THEY ARE ALL INDICATING LIKELY
POSSIBILITIES...WITH A LIKELY SCENARIO FALLING OUT OF THIS BASED
ON WHAT EACH MODEL IS INDICATING. EACH MODEL DOES DEPICT THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE NAM CONTINUING IF FURTHER
SOUTH. LOOKING ALOFT AT EACH MODEL...DURING THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME WE BEGIN TO SEE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
BACKING AND INCREASING. THIS IS GOING TO ACT TO HELP BRING A
RETURN OF ANOTHER PUSH OF THIS WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND THE WESTERLIES
TAKING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHOULD ALSO SEE A
RESPONSE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN TO MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION. IN ALL HELPING TO WASH OUT THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...WHAT I DO FORESEE HAPPENING IS WITH THE
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...WINDS STILL VEERING TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKE AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST
INDIANA LIKE THE NAM IS INDICATING. I JUST DONT THINK THE NAM IS
FULLY CORRECT IN TAKING THIS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA. WITH THIS TURNING OF THE WIND
FIELD...DECENT CONVERGENCE COULD BE REALIZED AND IF THE NAM IS
ALSO CORRECT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN
COULD BE IN PLACE. SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK STILL APPEAR TO BE RATHER WARM THIS WEEK.
TODAY...TEMPERATURES ROSE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OBSERVING MID TO UPPER 90S. DESPITE AN
AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA...MOST AREAS
HAVE OBSERVED DAYTIME MIXING WITH THESE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE 60S. SO DESPITE THESE 90S TEMPS IN PLACE...MOST AREAS TODAY
DID NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TOO MUCH ABOVE 100. WITH THE
LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH COOK
COUNTY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEVER REACHED 100. AS MAIN THERMAL AXIS
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT STAYING JUST TO THE
NORTH...HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INCLUDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS THE LAKE BREEZE AT BAY. ALTHOUGH...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL
LIMIT HUMIDITY ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO ONLY TOP OFF
IN THE UPPER 60S BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE
WARMER TEMPS...ONLY AM GETTING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105
MARK FOR A PERIOD ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS ALL AREAS UNDER HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AM EXPECTING A RISE IN BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
COME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ALSO
INCREASING BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
COOLING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE RELIEF COMES BY SUNDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY FORECAST IN THE 80S.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

*POTENTIAL OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

*POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AT/VICINITY TERMINALS DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO MAKE MORE STEADY PROGRESS INLAND.
RECENT MOVEMENT HAS TIME OF ARRIVAL AT 22Z FOR BOTH ORD AND MDW.
16Z RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND HAS THE BOUNDARY PASSING BY
BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON
INTO FIRST PART OF EVENING AS LAKE BREEZE CAUSES LOCALIZED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP MOVES FROM SW WI OVER N CENTRAL AND FAE NE IL. SO FAR...
MINIMAL CU ENHANCEMENT SO FAR WITH ONLY A FEW MODERATE CU FROM WI
STATE LINE NORTHWARD.

TRS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

AT MIDDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL AND SE MN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI TO EXTREME NE CORNER OF IL AND FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MI. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH
WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF TS TO THE N-NE OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS.

A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPED DURING THE LATER MORNING AND STARTED TO
PUSH INLAND BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS HAS RETREATED BACK
TOWARD THE SHORELINE S OF THE CHI LOOP AND HAS WAVERED BACK AND
FORTH N OF THE LOOP. FOURTEEN N IN LAKE CO THE LAKE BREEZE HAS
BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND BEING HELPED BY THE WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT.
STEADY PUSH INLAND ACROSS LAKE CO N INTO FAR SE WI EXPECTED...
WITH IT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH LATE AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS
AT THIS TIME IS ~22Z.

THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOCALIZED ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOWISH CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE AND EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE PREVENTS ANY MENTION
OF TS BEING INCLUDED IN THE TAFORS.

DURING THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT ONLY CB CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF TO COME DIVING SSE FROM WI AND OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE NO TS AT/VICINITY TERMINALS.

* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE BREEZE TO REACH ORD AND MDW LATE
AFTERNOON.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SUNDAY...VFR.

ALLSOPP

.MARINE...
301 PM CDT

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGGING DOWN THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS FLOPPING AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS
HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL DRAG A STRONGER FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.

HIGHEST SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 15-20 WITH A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TUESDAY...THEN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 20 KTS BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

318 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
316 PM CDT

MAIN AFD FORTHCOMING...

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

*POTENTIAL OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

*POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AT/VICINITY TERMINALS DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

TRS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

DURING THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT ONLY CB CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF TO COME DIVING SSE FROM WI AND OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE NO TS AT/VICINITY TERMINALS.

* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE BREEZE TO REACH ORD AND MDW LATE
AFTERNOON.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SUNDAY...VFR.

ALLSOPP

.MARINE...
301 PM CDT

HIGHEST SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 15-20 WITH A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TUESDAY...THEN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 20 KTS BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

650 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.UPDATE...
650 AM...THINGS ARE PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING AND I HAVE DROPPED THE
20 PCT POP FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS WITH PATCH OF THICKER CIRRUS
MOVING OVERHEAD.

ALLSOPP

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

325 AM...TWO FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
REMAIN HIGH TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AND POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES AND
PRECIP/CONVECTION.

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 90S THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE RESULTING
WETTER SOIL/GROUND...HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW FAST IT WILL
ALLOW WARMING TODAY. HAVE MID 90S GOING MOST AREAS BUT THIS COULD
BE TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS THOUGH THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...ROUGHLY
RFD TO ORD...HAS MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND THIS AREA
LIKELY TO HEAT/WARM THE MOST. THAT SAID...THE RIDGE IS BUILDING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND APPEARS HIGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS 24 HRS
AGO HAD SUGGESTED SOME DRIER AIR COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND WHILE THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE...
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT AS DRY AND NOW HAVE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. CURRENT PEAK HEAT INDICES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 104 RANGE BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
WHILE A FEW AREAS MAY REACH 105 TODAY...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR EITHER DAY...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY...SHOULD DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THEN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 MAY RESULT WITH AN
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY IS COMPLICATED BY A POSSIBLE COMBO WEAK FRONT/LAKE
BREEZE THAT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH AND DEW POINTS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS
POOLING AHEAD OF THIS POSSIBLE FRONT/LAKE BREEZE. WITH TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME MODERATION/COOLING INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE LAKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND MID 90S/HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 ARE INDEED POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE FRONT.
THURSDAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE GIVEN
THE LIGHT GRADIENT WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105
AGAIN.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME CONSENSUS OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN LAKES...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON FRIDAY...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER MAY HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOWER/MID 70S
AND THIS COULD BE THE HOTTEST/MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THIS
EXTENDED HEAT WAVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH
INTO THE 105-110 RANGE. STILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 90S ON SATURDAY
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED/ARRIVAL OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES...TRENDS/SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE DRY AND ATTEMPTING TO TIME ANY
POSSIBLE FEATURES BECOMES PROBLEMATIC. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PERHAPS AIDED BY THE LAKE
BREEZE. THEN LIKELY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL SOMETHING
WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SOMETHING WITH THE STRONGER FRONT SATURDAY...BUT POPS ALL IN THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY.
ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER THOUGH THERE
DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY CLEAR TRENDS OF ONE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP/AFFECT THE CWA...THAT COULD ALSO IMPACT
HIGH TEMPS/HEAT INDICES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND/LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG/HAZE FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS.
CMS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

*POTENTIAL OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

*POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AT/VICINITY TERMINALS DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

TRS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

DURING THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT ONLY CB CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF TO COME DIVING SSE FROM WI AND OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE NO TS AT/VICINITY TERMINALS.

* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE BREEZE TO REACH ORD AND MDW LATE
AFTERNOON.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

SUNDAY...VFR.

ALLSOPP

.MARINE...
301 PM CDT

HIGHEST SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 15-20 WITH A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TUESDAY...THEN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 20 KTS BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

405 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONT TO FAVOR CAUTIONARY APPROACH WRT
POTNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TERM FOR CWA. DESPITE INCSRG
INSTABILITY THIS AFT/EVE AS SFC DPS BEGIN TO POOL TO NEAR 70F ACRS
NWRN CWA THIS AFTN...FAVORED INITIATION REGIONS EXIST BOTH
DOWN/UPSTREAM. STILL MODELS SPCLY GFS CONTS TO FAIL TO CAPTURE
SIGNIFICANCE OF DRY GROUND/D3 DROUGHT CONDS THAT HAVE EMERGED ACRS
NRN IN AND CONT TO SHAVE SVRL DEGREES DOWNWARD. THIS AM NOTED
SHORTWAVE/700H JETLET GENERATED XTRMLY HIGH ELEVATED CONVECTION
INVOF KCID...THIS FEATURE TO PUSH INTO NWRN OH THIS EVE WITH CAP
SLOWLY DERIDED PER SPC RAP IN TANDEM WITH CONCEPTUAL MODEL
EXPECTATIONS...THOUGH EAST OF CWA. WELL WEST OF CWA WITHIN DCPVA
ZONE AMID OVERLAP ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER/LESS INHIBITED
INSTABILITY AXIS FM NWRN IL WWD INTO SERN NE WITH MLCAPE 4000-5000
J/KG AND SRN PERIPHERY OF HIR DEEP LYR /0-6KM/ SHEAR OF 40-55KTS TO
LKLY SUPPORT MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS PLAINS INTO INTO IA/MO
NEAR/AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY 925-850MB JET STRENGTHENS/NOSES ACRS CNTL
KS. ADDNL/CONTD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT ACRS IA/MO THROUGH DAYBREAK AS
ERN PERIPHERY OF LLJ VEERS. LACK OF ULVL JET SUPPORT ACRS CWA
FURTHER POINTS TO LIKEN DRY BEGETS DRY. FLATTENED RIDGE TO ALLOW
SHALLOW SFC FNTL ZONE TO SLIDE SEWD QUIETLY THROUGH CWA...WITH ZONE
OF RICH 0-0.5KM THETA-E LAID OUT FM NRN IL INTO CNTL IN ON FRIDAY.
LOW/SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION INITIATION INVOF BNDRY WITH
INCRSD UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE AS NRN PLAINS UPR JETLET MOVES INTO SERN
LWR MI/LWR GRTLKS.

.LONG TERM... / WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY /

MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPS/HEAT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND LOW
CHANCES FOR ISO/SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HEAT DOME WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY ARE FCST TO
REACH THE 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES LIKELY NEARING OR
EXCEEDING 100F. EXPECTED DRYING UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND RESULTING DEEPER MIXING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS CLOSER
TO WARMER ECMWF MOS DURING THIS PERIOD. OPTED FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF APPARENT T`S NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IMPACTS FROM THE HEAT
(HOLIDAY AND POWER OUTAGES FROM RECENT SVR WX).

AN UPPER TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL CREST THE CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EVENTUALLY
HELPING TO REINFORCE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN DROPPING
A SFC CDFNT SWD THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY/MONDAY BEHIND
THIS FEATURE.

AS FOR PCPN/CONVECTION CHANCES...SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE SEWD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY FORCE A VERY SHALLOW SFC TROUGH SWD THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PULSE TYPE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER
EASTERN/SERN ZONES AND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...WITH ONLY LOW 15-25
POPS WARRANTED GIVEN LACK OF FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR AND WARMING ALOFT AS
700 HPA TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 12C. THIS WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY WASH OUT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FA BY THURSDAY AS STRONGER
CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WITH THIS OPTED TO CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FCST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING
CONVECTION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING
SO NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISO WIND/HAIL THREAT ANTICIPATED.

.AVIATION... /18 UTC TAFS/
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED/LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST ESPCLY WRT AFTN CONVECTION.
RELYING ON DESTABILIZATION LEEWARD OF LK MI THIS AFTN TO MORE DEEPLY
CONVECT WITH TIME THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH INCRSD MLYR INSTABILITY
AND INCRSG CONVERGENT FOCUS ALONG THERMAL CIRCULATION/LAKE BREEZE.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE RELEGATED TEMPO TSRA TO SOLELY ONE HOUR AT
KSBN AND LESSER CONFIDENCE FOR DOWNSTREAM MAINTENANCE ACRS NERN
IN/KFWA VCNTY...WITH ONLY 2 HR VCTS WARRANTED THERE. OTHERWISE VFR
MET CONDS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH WARMER THAN XOVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY BR FORMATION TO A PRIMARILY
ISOLD/SHALLOW NATURE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
032>034.

MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

611 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY. WIDESPREAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE THE CLEAR SKIES...AND HOT WEATHER FOUND IN THE
REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
IOWA...AND NORTH OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS THROUGH TOMORROW.
ERVIN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB LOW IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A
WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS ON
THIS BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MID TEENS. A DECAYING LLJ RAN FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA THAT WAS IN AN AXIS OF MID TEEN DEW
POINTS AS WELL. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW
DIURNAL CU TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE REMNANT COLD POOL OF LAST
NIGHTS MCS IN WISCONSIN AND FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW AT KMHE AND ANOTHER IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. AN IMPLIED BOUNDARY RAN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
ANOTHER IMPLIED BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE NOCTURNAL MCS IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
JUST BARELY VERIFYING AT MID AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING. TODAY AND YESTERDAY DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN DURING THE DAY AND THEN DROPPED AT NIGHT. THE ONLY
EXPLANATION THAT MAKES SENSE FOR THIS OCCURRING IS CORN. ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP THE CORN STARTS TO ACTIVELY EVAPOTRANSPIRATE. WITH
SUNSET THE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHUTS DOWN.

THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF DEW POINTS DROPPING TONIGHT
AND THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SO FAR HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON RAP TRENDS...
CONVECTION MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA.

A BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE HAS A
VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER BACK IN THE DAKOTAS. RAP TRENDS SHOW THESE FEATURES IN THE
500MB FLOW. THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COMBINED WITH THE LLJ INCREASING IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS. THE LLJ IS
WEAKER OVER THE CWFA SO THE MCS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS WILL LIKELY
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION THAT WILL DECAY AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE
NORTHERN CWFA BORDER LIKE THIS MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS THEN PLAY
INTO TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...WILL GO THE THE IDEA THAT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL
IT THINS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO IS
CORRECT...MAX TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY
THAN THEY ARE TODAY.

REGARDING HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY. IF DEW
POINTS DROP TONIGHT AS THEY HAVE THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 70S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. GIVEN THE
LENGTH OF TIME THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND...THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. ..08..

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BRING SOME RELIEF IN THE
FORM OF RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT
DOME OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LOCALLY...THE HEAT AND HIGH HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
WORSEN AS AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER SENDS THE DOME OF
HEAT ALOFT NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. USING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
ECM GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE TOO WARM NAM AND TOO COOL
TRENDING GFS...BY THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 TO 7 DEGREES C WARMER. THIS WOULD EASILY DRIVE
MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...HOWEVER...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDBACK ON TEMPERATURES REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM MATURING FIELD CROPS APPEARS TO
BE THE CULPRIT FOR DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S DURING WEAK
MIXING AT NIGHT...WHICH TODAY ARE REMAINING HIGH DESPITE 10 TO 20 KT
WINDS. MODELS WILL NOT LIKELY HANDLE THIS FEEDBACK PROPERLY AND THUS
THE DRIER NAM WITH ITS LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WIDESPREAD 104 TO 107 MAX
TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THU IS SUSPECT...WHILE THE EQUALLY TOO MOIST
TRENDING GFS IS TOO COOL AND UNUSABLE. FOLLOWING MORE CLOSELY THE
BIAS CORRECTED MODELS AND 12Z ECM...HAVE KEPT THU AS THE WARMEST OF
THE STRETCH WITH A COMPROMISE 99 TO 102 RANGE FOR HIGHS. USING TODAY AS
A MODEL...HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS INTO A 105 TO
110 RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE WELL
INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE CRITICAL DEWPOINT VALUES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WARNING AS THE HEAT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THESE PERIODS.

SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT IS NOTED FOR FRIDAY AND MODELS DROP A WEAK
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HAVE THUS LIMITED HIGHS TO THE 90S...WHILE HEAT INDICES AGAIN
PUSH TO AT LEAST 100 TO 105. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM WED NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S...CONTINUING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH HEAT INDICES ALSO SUPPORTING THE ON-GOING
ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN NEW UPSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE
MORE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO DROP SOUTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW POPS FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHEETS

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT INCREASING POPS AND QPF ALONG A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH. DID THIS THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTATION OF ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.

STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

MORE OF THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
EASTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12KTS WILL INCREASE
BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS. HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS BLOWOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

837 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HRRR WAS ALONE...AND CORRECT...IN BRINGING LINE OF TSRA ACRS CWFA.
ASIDE FROM THE STORM HEADED TWD DC METRO...STRUCTURE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. 00Z RAOB REVEALS A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO H8...W/
ALMOST 1000 J/KG CAPE THRUT. THEREFORE...FEEL PCPN WL MAKE IT TO
THE BAY. CANT RULE OUT ISOL SVR EITHER. HWVR OVERALL RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THERE/S A DIURNAL ROLE TO CNVCTN...SO SHUD CONT TO SEE
MOST STORMS WANING.

ONCE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES THRU...THE BALANCE OF THE NGT SHUD BE
DRY. HRRR TAKES ACTIVITY INVOF LERI TWD METRO BALT BY 10-12Z. WL
BUMP UP POPS THERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ONGOING CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE DAY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE CWA WOULD BE DRY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LEE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TRIGGERS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW WARM IT GETS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR MID 90S...AND WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN TODAY IT
WILL FEEL EVEN HOTTER. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. ANY T-STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE
TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR PEOPLE VENTURING OUTDOORS WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL EXTEND EAST TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE UNUSUALLY HOT CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN HIGH AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY SINCE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL PROVIDE A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE AN ISOLATED T-STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BOUNDARY TO
APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE BOUNDARY
MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...CAUSING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HRRR HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST...AND TAFS HV A PD OF
TSRA. HV BEEN AMD AS REQD AHD OF LN...WHICH SHUD CLR BWI-DCA BTWN
02-03Z.

SOME GUIDANCE REVEALS THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE SHUD STAY N OF BWI/MTN. HV NOT INCL
IN LTST TAFS.

LEE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANTHR ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING.LOCATION PRCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCATTERED T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.

.MARINE...
A LINE OF TSRA APPROACHING WATERS. OBS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS
CONTAIN 30-35 KT WND GUSTS. MARINERS SHUD MONITOR FOR SMW/S THIS
EVNG.

SOME GDNC SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY CLIP NRN BAY TWD
DAWN.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SCATTERED T-STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS/PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...LASORSA
LONG TERM...LASORSA
AVIATION...HTS/PELOQUIN/LASORSA
MARINE...HTS/PELOQUIN/LASORSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

720 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV
MOVING THROUGH NE ND HAS TRIGGERED ANY SHRA/TSRA. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES WAS LOCATED WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SW INTO NE MN AND NE SD. THE GRADIENT REMAINED WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT
LAKE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED OFF OF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
DESPITE T/TD CLIMBING TO NEAR 93/64 INLAND WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE
2K-3K J/KG RANGE...CAPPING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION SO FAR WITH ONLY RELATIVELY SHALLOW CU OVER THE WEST AND
ALONG LAKE BREEZES OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A TSTM OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVBL. HOWEVER...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WAS MENTIONED GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY REMAINING PCPN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH/END BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED...AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO CNTRL SASK...INCREASING
SRLY FLOW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT BACK
TOWARD THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUE SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 3K J/KG
NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT SHRTWVS ARE
FCST INTO THE AREA AND CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT TSRA
CHANCES. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE AGAIN INCLUDED OVER THE WEST CLOSEST TO
THE WARM FRONT AND 925-850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR WILL BE THURSDAY...AS THE 500MB
RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. THE 500MB LOW OVER N
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL CROSS INTO HUDSON BAY
AND N ONTARIO BY 06Z FRIDAY.

DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE FAR W THROUGH THE
BARAGA PLAINS...GIVEN THE QUICKER COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE SET
UP ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH IWD AND NW WI AT 12Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH E...AND SET UP JUST E OF THE
CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. DUE TO A FASTER SOLUTION DAY 2/3...THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WERE PUSHED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OR DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN...BUT ALSO DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWERED DEWPOINTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THAT WOULD BRING ABOUT MIN RH VALUES INTO
THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THEY FALL CLOSER TO OR BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LIMITED SHOWERS STILL IN THERE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT /THANKS TO THE WETTER ECMWF/ DO NOT PAN OUT.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE THE RULE FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY
06Z SUNDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

WITH LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ALL SITES TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LOWER VBSYS TO IFR OR EVEN IFR. BEST
SITES FOR THIS WOULD BE SAW AND CMX AND WENT WITH LOWEST VIS THERE.
IWD IS A BIT TOUGHER AND THINK FOG WILL BE TRANSIENT OVERNIGHT
THERE. FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY WED MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST...ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

415 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRESTING THE RIDGE INTO SE MANITOBA AND THE ADJACENT PORTION OF NRN
ONTARIO HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER TSRA OVER THE NW CORNER OF MN. AT THE
SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH NRN MN INTO CNTRL WI FROM LOW
PRES OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA. HOT AND HUMID AIR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HAS PUSHED MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 3K-4K J/KG RANGE. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI AND FAR SRN UPPER MI BUT HAVE
ALSO DISSIPATED QUICKLY WHERE LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDEPSREAD COVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
MODELS WERE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL EXPAND OVER
NRN MN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS REMAIN ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND LOCATION/TRACK OF THE EXPECTED MCS
MOVING OUT OF NRN MN. WITH ANL ESE TRACK TO ANY MCS AND A
POSSIBLE FURTHER TURN TO THE SOUTH...PER FOREWARD PROPAGATION
CORFIDI VECTORS AND 850-300 EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 03Z-12Z. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH GREATEST CHANCE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FOR SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING...PER
SPC...GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING IN THE 2K-3K J/KG RANGE).

TUESDAY...REMAING SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
WITH COOLER AIR ONLY ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE ENHANCING 500MB LOWS OVER NE
HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND SW CANADA. A TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE E
CANADA LOW WILL BE JUST TO OUR E BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP SHOULD BE QUICKLY EXITING E AS THE SFC SHIFTS FROM S JAMES
BAY AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKING SE TO N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY.

LOOK FOR THE HEAT TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT RESTS
OVER S LOWER MI AND WI TO THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SD. 850MB
TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH DURING THIS THEORETICAL COOL DONN
PERIOD...FROM 20C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UP TO AN AVERAGE 21C BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SFC. DEW POINTS SHOULD
CHANGE THOUGH...AND HAVE LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO LOOK AT FURTHER LOWERING FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
TIME NEARS.

EXPECT THE SFC HIGH TO EDGE E WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SWINGING OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND THE WARM
FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES...THEY REMAIN WEAK...WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC THROUGH
850MB...WITH LAKE BREEZES CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY...INLAND FROM AREAS
RIGHT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 22C BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE S FLOW...AND
WOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES /COOL DOWN/ OVER N CENTRAL UPPER
MI. HEAT INDEX VALUES/APPARENT TEMPS WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE 92 TO
99 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST WEST AND CENTRAL.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SINK TO OUR SE BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIP S DURING THE DAY AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM S CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT /DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO COOL OFF A BIT FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA LOOKED TO BE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THE FCST BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVER NRN MN THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOPI INTO AN MCS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN VCTS AT THIS POINT SINCE SHRA/TSRA
HAVE NOT YET DEVELOPED AND SO NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACT TIMING/LOCATION.
SOME LOWER CIGS/VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF PASSAGE OF SHRA/TSRA DOES
OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL TRHEAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS WITH AN MCS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. AREA OF FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

740 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

A SLOWLY MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRONGER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TUESDAY AND RESULT IN
HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

I INCREASED POP TO 30 PCT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
SINCE THE LATEST NAM12 AND RAP SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY OVER THE SE CWA AFTER 18Z COUPLED WITH INCREASED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA.

MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT THROUGH IS THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THAT SHOWS A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
IS DECENT LIFT IN THE DGZ DUE TO THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BETTER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT... SEEMS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW. NOT
ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR FOR STRONG STORMS BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS... I
COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THINGS ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE ACTIVE LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.

* BEST CHANCE OF STORMS: TODAY MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
TUESDAY AFTER 18Z
* SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS TUESDAY NORTH OF A HART TO CLARE LINE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
WISCONSIN SEWD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FROM NEAR MKG TO OZW. THIS
BOUNDARY IS SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
WISCONSIN ACROSS SRN LWR. AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO
AROUND 7C/KM...SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP. SHEAR IS PRETTY LOW SO SVR
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE...THE TSRA THREAT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING.

A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO HAVE A
SHORT WAVE FOR UPPER SUPPORT. THE TROUGH AND WAVE ARE PROGD TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AT MAX HEATING. INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRETTY HIGH WITH LI/S NEAR -6C. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR WILL
BE HIGHER...35-45KTS. THUS STRONG TO PERHAPS SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE FAR NRN CWA...ESSENTIALLY NORTH OF A
HART TO CLARE LINE...IN A SLGHT RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

POPS WILL DECREASE FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING EWD. NO COOL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH AS HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND THAT STARTS SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMES WITH THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY... IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE MOST OF THE AREAS WILL SEE SOME VERY MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE STORM WILL BE ANYTHING MORE
THEN GENERIC THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR IS LESS THAN
MARGINAL....THE 1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS NOR THE LOW
LEVEL JET ARE AIMED AT THIS AREA ON SATURDAY EITHER. EVEN SO THERE
IS DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT...THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAP IS NEAR 1500 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEAN 850 TO
700 RH IS OVER 80 PCT NEAR THE FRONT...AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES (DOUBLE NORMAL). SO IT WOULD SEEM
TO ME WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS EVEN SO BUT THE STORMS WOULD
MORE THAN LIKELY NO BE SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
FAST ENOUGH THAT LAGER SCALE FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
BUT SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER MAY WELL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAYBE SATURDAY TOO IF THE CONVECTION ON THE FRONT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER TO GET HERE. MY 1000/850 THICKNESS NUMBERS FROM THE ECMWF
ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGHS BETWEEN 95 AND 100 ALL THREE DAYS.
ALSO MY 1000/925 THICKNESS VALUES GIVE ME SIMILAR NUMBERS. WE MAY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE DAYS DEPENDING JUST WHAT THE DEW
POINTS END UP BEING. WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT... SATURDAY MAY BE THE DAY WE WOULD MORE LIKELY SEE THAT SORT
OF HEADLINE.

AS FOR OVERALL PATTERN...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS ENTIRE EVENT. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS PATTERN.
THE HEAT DOME WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE
TROUGHS OFF BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
TOO. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA HELPS TO BUILD THE
UPPER RIDGE MID WEEK BEFORE IT GETS EJECTED BY A YET STRONGER
PACIFIC SYSTEM (FROM NORTHERN RUSSIA) THAT BOOTS IT ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH HERE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHERN RUSSIA DEEPENS AND
MASSIVELY CLOSES OFF AT UPPER LEVELS SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN THE
PAST FEW STORMS SO THAT FORCES THE ENTIRE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO
RETROGRADE. THAT IN TURN IS WHY SOME COOLING SEEMS LIKELY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND (RETROGRADING THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN BACK WITHIN THE POLAR JET AND THUS COOLER AIR).

SO HOT AND DRY THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.. THEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE FOG AT AZO AND JXN SHOULD BE GONE BY 9 AM. AFTER THAT LARGELY
VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE OVER
MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD TOUCH OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER WI
THIS LATER TODAY AND THAT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. SINCE I WAS NOT SURE ON COVERAGE I PUT VCTS FOR NOW AND
WE CAN UPDATE THIS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY TOO.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1020 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.UPDATE...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND. THE 4 KM
NMM WRF WAS HINTING AT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NE
SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THAT WAS A COUPLE HOURS AGO AND THERE HAS BEEN
NO DEVELOPMENT AT ALL YET. THE NEAREST STORMS ARE IN FAR NW NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
BUT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOG WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. THE FOG WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE FA AT 19Z AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAY FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. CU
FIELD DOTS THE FA AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS IN EASTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
FA. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS REFLECTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF. DID ADD PATCHY FOG FROM 08Z TO 12Z
WHICH IS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS.

LOW PRESSURE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND ATTEMPTS
TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA. A SHORT WAVE WILL TRY
TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAKER VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT IN NW
WI THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS PICKED UP BY MOST OF THE MODELS AND HAVE
POPS INCREASING GRADUALLY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH NE MN WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL BY 12Z NEAR NW WI. MEANWHILE...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA EARLY WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED...TRENDING DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES LARGE AMPLITUDE MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS CTRL
PLAINS THROUGH END OF WEEK. DURING THE WEEKEND MID LVL RIDGE AXIS
REDEVELOPS OVER WRN CONUS WITH A RELATIVE TROF OVER THE ERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY.THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER NW MID LVL FLOW
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP HOT WEATHER
LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. INITIAL SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CWA THURSDAY WITH DRYING/NO POPS SPREADING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. REINFORCING SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND INTO NRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND PWATS SOUTH OF REGION. POPS/QPF STILL
PROBLEMATIC AS MDL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS PRECIP ACROSS SRN HALF OF
CWA. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT 85H THETAE AXIS/WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE
ALONG SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES DURING FRIDAY/EARLY SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT AS REALITY MAY BE QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH REGARD TO WHERE RING OF CONVECTION ACTUALLY OCCURS.
IT MAY BE THAT CORRIDOR OF PRECIP IS MORE NARROW IN AREAL EXTENT AND
IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FCST. THIS WOULD CHANGE CURRENT
UNSETTLED FCST TO A DRIER THEME AROUND TWIN PORTS/IRON RANGE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES DURING
THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

WEAK SFC BDRY IS PUSHING ACROSS CWA WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING ACROSS NRN/WRN CWA. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD
IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF REGION. THIS
REGION RETURNS NORTH OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH LITTLE FORCING SEEMS
AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION...HI RES MDLS SUGGEST THAT
POSSIBILITY EXISTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT
CONVECTION IN MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT A CHANCE NEAR KBRD.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 70 82 68 87 / 10 20 20 10
INL 67 90 65 91 / 10 40 70 10
BRD 73 94 70 91 / 10 20 30 30
HYR 72 92 73 93 / 10 40 20 20
ASX 67 81 68 87 / 10 20 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ033-034-036-038.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

1040 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES MADE TO CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER ERN ZONES. THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS
SHIFTED INTO ERN ZONES AND WILL HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM WRN AL CONVECTION HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED AT
SOME ERN MS LOCATIONS TO HELP FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ADJUSTED HIGHS TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE NERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION TO WARM A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXERTS STRONG INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS AGREE THAT A SUB-CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA...ENSURING
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP HEAT STRESS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES..A DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY COULD
HELP TO SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOR RENEWED CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND HAVE EDGED MAV MOS POPS
UPWARD A BIT TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MICROBURSTS. WITH DCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 1500 J/KG...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SE OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A POCKET OF GREATER SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER/STABLE AIR MIGRATING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER TSTM CHANCES EXIST ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR FOR TUES
AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION PLAYS OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED HOT SFC TEMPS
AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY
AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO MENTION IN THE HWO YET. /EC/

.LONG TERM...RATHER HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT AT LEAST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE (WITH HIGHS SHY OF THE
CENTURY MARK). ANOTHER PLUS IS THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY RETURN TO AVERAGE MID-SUMMER LEVELS BY THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK AND GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC UPPER LEVELS LOOKS
TO STILL BE PLAGUING MOST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DEEP RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL BE HEADED DOWN
OUR DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST. IT IS THIS EVOLUTION THAT WILL
HELP INCREASE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE
AREA...INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAT AND DRYNESS FROM THE RIDGING
INFLUENCE MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO LONGER TO BREAK IN THE NORTHWEST
ARKLAMISS DELTA...BUT IT EVENTUALLY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR EVEN THERE.

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT SETUP ADVERTISED BY MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR) COULD GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN ON 1 OR 2
DAYS OVER THE COURSE OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY PERIOD. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT FEATURES MODELS ARE PREDICTING ARE SOMEWHAT SUBTLE
AND DETAILS WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS (WHICH ARE
UNPREDICTABLE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME). FOR THAT REASON I STUCK PRETTY
CLOSE TO MEXMOS POPS OVER THE LONG TERM (AND EVEN CUT BACK SOME VERY
AGGRESSIVE NUMBERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY).

BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL AN ACTUAL
COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO HERE AS THE NASTY RIDGE ALOFT
RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST. THAT WOULD SPELL TEMPERATURES COOLING
DOWN A BIT MORE WITH EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES...AND MOST WOULD
PROBABLY RANK THOSE AS POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS. BUT GIVEN THAT
EVOLUTION WOULD BE 7 OR 8 DAYS FROM NOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHING FOR SOME POTENT AFTERNOON
STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE TO POSE AT LEAST A
MICROBURST RISK FROM PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. /BB/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME PSBL BRIEF MVFR VIS THIS
AFTN FOR KMEI/KGTR/KHBG AS ISO/SCT TSRA DVLP. CNTRL TAF SITES COULD
SEE ISO SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG/AFTN ALSO. HIGHEST STORM STOPS TO FL450
WITH ENHANCED TURBULENCE INVOF TSRA ACROSS E/CNTRL MS. ACTIVITY WILL
WANE THROUGH 03/01Z. MVFR VIS DOWN TO 2-4 SM PSBL 03/08Z-13Z ACROSS
ERN SITES..ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB
FROM W/N AT 4-9 KT. ERRATIC AND HIGHER WINDS PSBL INVOF TSRA THIS
AFTN. /ALLEN/
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
SINCE SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE ARKLAMISS ARE UNDER BURN BANS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH AND
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. HOT
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03/EC/BB/ALLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

423 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES..A DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY COULD
HELP TO SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOR RENEWED CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND HAVE EDGED MAV MOS POPS
UPWARD A BIT TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MICROBURSTS. WITH DCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 1500 J/KG...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILTY OF A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SE OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVEVING IS A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A POCKET OF GREATER SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER/STABLE AIR MIGRATING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER TSTM CHANCES EXIST ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR FOR TUES
AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION PLAYS OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED HOT SFC TEMPS
AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY
AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO MENTION IN THE HWO YET. /EC/

.AVIATION...FAIRLY TYPICAL HOT/HAZY AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WHERE HAZE REDUCES VISIBILITY. EARLY MORNING FOG ADDED TO THE MIX IS
RESULTING INTO LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR VSBY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MIX
OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IT APPEARS THE BEST TSTM CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTN/EVNG WILL BE FOR ERN MS AND THE GTR/MEI/HBG CORRIDOR...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS JAN/GWO. BUT A STRAY TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ANY LOCATION IN THE HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. /EC/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 96 72 97 71 / 20 13 18 17
MERIDIAN 98 70 96 68 / 33 28 22 23
VICKSBURG 96 70 95 69 / 13 11 12 13
HATTIESBURG 98 72 97 72 / 34 22 23 23
NATCHEZ 94 72 94 71 / 15 16 13 13
GREENVILLE 97 72 96 73 / 11 8 9 11
GREENWOOD 97 69 95 71 / 14 10 9 13

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

EC/BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Tonight through Tuesday)...

MCV left over from last nights convection over western KS has
sparked isolated storms over central KS. MCV is moving slowly east
under a weak steering flow less than 15kts. While the system is
working into a more unstable airmass will likely need the
development of a good sized cold pool to send any additional
activity into the western CWA. 18Z NAM and latest HRRR provide
enough incentive to mention slight chance pops into the evening
hours for far western counties. Rest of CWA should be quiet
overnight.

For the past several days models have forecast "cooler" temperatures
for the CWA. This is mainly the result of deeper tropical air now
over TX advecting slowly north and cooling temperatures up through
the mid levels. But with the somewhat cooler temperatures spells an
increase in dewpoints/humidity levels so not a good trade off. There
are some signals that warrant adding slight chance pops to the
southern CWA for late Monday afternoon/evening as a couple of weak
vorticity lobes/shortwaves may lift through the CWA. Combination of
steep lapse rates and pockets of deeper moisture around h7 per BUFR
soundings provide the background for pulse type convection
initiating during peak heating and hanging around till mid evening.
Gusty winds and small hail certainly possible. Have not strayed too
far form previous temperature forecast. Heat Index values not high
enough to warrant any advisory.

Slightly warmer air expected to drift back into the CWA on Tuesday
as the deeper tropical plume of moisture/cooler temperatures aloft
peels eastward. Heat Index values crank back into the 100-106 range.
And the drought continues with nearly zero chance of rain.

Wednesday - Sunday:

Models remain in very good agreement through the extended depicting
the upper ridge expanding and strengthening through the week across
the central CONUS. So the extended range forecast continues to look
hot with little, if any, chance of any organized area of
precipitation. So have kept the entire period dry with temperatures
around 100 degrees for most locations. There may be days that are a
bit warmer and cooler but all in all afternoon highs will be
flirting with the century mark day after day through Sunday. The
later part of the week looks warmer for the entire area as greater
thickness values spread eastward and drape themselves across the
area. But still think highs will be in the 100 to 102 range.

If there is one positive about this heat wave it is that dewpoints
haven`t been extreme. This is most likely due to the drought and the
overall lack of evapotranspiration. But with dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s, the heat has not been as bad as in years past. This has
kept heat index values lower but we`re still expecting heat index
values to range from 100 to 104 through the extended. This is below
advisory levels for any given day. But with this heat being
prolonged, and in the 100 to 104 range, an advisory may be needed
through the end of the week as the cumulative effects of the heat
continue to mount.

CDB

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
as persistant upper level ridge over the central US will allow for
continued dry weather. Southerly surface winds and some scattered
high level cloudiness can be expected during this forecast cycle.

MJM

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1013 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THIS TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 400 AM. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHOULD PRETTY
MUCH END THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. NORTH OF I-90 SHOULD BE
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY TO BE
DRY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AHEAD OF THIS...RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THIS
AREA DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE HRRR
AND 00Z NAM HAVE FINALLY GAINED A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS...WITH
BOTH CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ONLY REAL
QUESTION IS IF ANY SHOWERS BREAK OUT TO THE NORTH OF THIS THROUGH
THE EARLY...AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS...BUT SCATTERED IN NATURE AND IN LINE WITH THE CHANCE
POPS. OTHERWISE...STEADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER
OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH ALL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO END SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...WHILE CLOSER
TO THE LAKES AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WHERE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME
SPOTS.

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST LOOKS UNCERTAIN FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
HOLIDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS NOT REALLY DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANT
THERMAL BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND AND MOISTURE FIELDS CLEARLY SHOW A BOUNDARY
WORKING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
WILL GET TRIGGERED IS HARD TO SAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA IN A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS...BUT LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
OR PRECIPITATION COULD HAMPER SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CHANCE PROBABILITIES. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BUILD THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. VERY WARM DAY IN STORE WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S
WOULD PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY
BE OVER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK.
EXPECT THE SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE
WARM AND FEEL A BIT MUGGY AS THE WEAK FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A
DENT INTO DRYING OUT THE SURFACE LAYER. LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO MAYBE EVEN AROUND 70 ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING WHICH BROUGHT RECORD HIGHS TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WORKS INTO NEW YORK. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD FROM AROUND 586 DM TO
NEAR 591 DM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HEIGHTS SUGGEST EXPANDING
HEAT IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR 850 MB TEMPS WE ARE
LOOKING AT 14C TO 16C THURSDAY TO 19C TO 21C FOR FRIDAY. WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...MIXING THESE TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL YIELD HIGH
ON THURSDAY IN THE RANGE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NY
AND LOW 80S FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ON FRIDAY HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S LOOK LIKE A SURE BET. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JULY ARE
80F SO FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5F TO MAYBE AS MUCH AS
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON
THE WARM SIDE CLOSE TO THE LAKES WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO VALLEYS. WITH THE HOT
TEMPS OCCURRING FRIDAY...TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID. NUMBERS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 70 IN MANY SPOTS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ANY PRECIP IT MAY TRIGGER STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED. SEEMS THE
12Z NAM IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY AND BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS MERGING WITH A UPPER LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH INCREASING TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT PAIRED WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...SOME 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S WILL BE A RELIEF AFTER A FEW MUGGY
NIGHTS LATE THIS WEEK.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR JHW DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGHT HERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHICH GET
RAIN. THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
A TSTM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY...UNDER STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

800 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...AS A LATE AFTERNOON
LINE OF SHOWERS WEAKENS AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE ERIE...WHICH
WILL CLIP EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ENTERING EASTERN
MICHIGAN DURING THIS EVENING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SLOWER
WITH THIS...A GENERAL CONSENSUS TENDS TO SUPPORT THAT ONCE THIS
DRY SLOT REACHES WESTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL PRETTY MUCH END THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENTER FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND 400 AM OR SO.
UNTIL THEN...ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH RADAR TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY GOOD
CHUNK THE CWA HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF STAYING DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
NORTHWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY
GAINED A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THINGS...THOUGH IT APPEARS A BIT
SLOW.

WITH THIS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS ALSO DIMINISHED...HOWEVER
PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTY STILL MAY BE
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE...WITH BOWING AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...THIS
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL IN OUR CWA...WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION
LIKELY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR JHW DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
FOR EARLY JULY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...BASICALLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AIR MASS
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS ARE 5 KT
OR LESS. LOOKING KLTX VWP AS WELL AS SURROUNDING 88D VWPS...WINDS
ARE SW 15 TO 25 KT IN THE LOWER 5K FT...AND FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20
KT FROM 9K FT AND HIGHER. BASICALLY THE 2 DIRECTIONS ARE CANCELING
EACH OTHER OUT AND RESULTING IN STORM MOTIONS 5 KT OR LESS WITH A
VARIABLE DIRECTION. GIVEN CURRENT SURROUNDING 88D VWPS AND 00Z
RAOBS...A LOW LEVEL SW JET WILL LIKELY FURTHER DEVELOP AND PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL KEEP SW WINDS ON THE FRISKY
SIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IN
ADDITION...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...FOG WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TO OCCUR WILL BE AREAS WEST OF I-95. TWEAKED
MINS AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN.AS FOR CLOUDS...DEBRIS
CI/CS...OPAQUE AT TIMES...WILL AFFECT THE FA OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHERE IT COULD
BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIALIZATION OF CONVECTION ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. A PERSISTENT STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT
IT WILL NOT KEEP A TOTAL LID ON CONVECTION...IN FACT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE TROUGH-LIKE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARDS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG BOUNDARY
LEVEL HEATING WITH ATTENDANT STEEP LAPSE RATES ON BOTH DAYS WILL
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION WITH P/W VALUES
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
STILL UNCERTAIN SO HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL SCATTERED POPS FOR MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INCLUDING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP MAX
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY
MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S WELL INLAND. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID
70S BOTH DAYS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SOUTH AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WILL DETERMINE THE
POP/CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BEST OMEGA OCCURS EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE/NVA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSTM COVERAGE...BUT
FEEL INHERITED LOW-CHANCE IS WARRANTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER
IMPULSE. CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED...AND WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING FRIDAY NIGHT.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
FOR THE WKND...BRINGING WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND A WEAK CAP TO
CONVECTION FOR THE WKND. WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SURFACE
PATTERN...THAT IS...BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH TO
THE WEST...THERE STILL MAY BE DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION EACH DAY
ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH VERY DRY AIR
PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING BENEATH THE
RIDGE...WILL CAP POPS AT LOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS SE EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN ERODING RIDGE
AND DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS SOLUTION EARLY MONDAY...BUT ECMWF
ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL ACT AS A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR RENEWED CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL
PUSH A FRONT (ALBEIT WITH LIMITED AIRMASS CHANGE) TOWARDS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL MECHANISM FOR TSTMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HVY RAINFALL WITHIN CONVECTION
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY SATURATED AIRMASS
(PWATS OVER 2 INCHES)...THE APPROACH OF A DIFLUENT JET REGION...AND
THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL SHOW TRWM AS WX TYPE SINCE
IT IS DAYS 6-7...BUT SIGNALS DO POINT TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DECENT RAINFALL MON/TUE.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND CLIMO FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...THEY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW 105F EXCEPT ON SUNDAY WHEN HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE PATCHY/BRIEF MVFR FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LINGERING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GIVEN EXPECTED OPACITY AND COVERAGE...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY RESTRICTIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE TO 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LOW LEVEL JET SUSTAINED WINDS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO MVFR FOG FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AT SOME SITES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE INDICATED BY TIME-HEIGHT
ANALYSIS. AFTER DAYBREAK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE VCTS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS BASICALLY
DISSIPATED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO SW AROUND 10 KT.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURROUNDING 88D VWPS AND 00Z
RAOBS...A LOW LEVEL JET WITH SW WINDS AT 15 TO 30 KT LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN INCREASE SW
WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD. THE SW 20+ KT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE ILM WATERS AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. THE
ESE 1-2 FT 10-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL IS BASICALLY DRIVING SIG
SEAS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. AS SW WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...THE LOCALLY PRODUCED AND BUILDING WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT
4-5 SECOND PERIODS...WILL DOMINATE THE OVERALL SIG SEAS. LOOKING AT
SIG SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FT... POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF BOTH DAYS WILL KICK WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT DURING THE TIMES OF
SLACKEST WINDS TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY LATE EACH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENINGS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE AND AN
ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY. THIS CREATES SW WINDS...OF
10-15 KTS FRI/SAT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS SUNDAY AS GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE PINCHED DUE TO A STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FRI/SAT WITH A COMBINATION OF A 2FT/9SEC SE SWELL AND
4FT/5SEC SW WIND WAVE CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-5 FT...WITH STEEPER
OVERALL FACES SINCE THE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT IN THE
WAVE SPECTRUM.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT WIND STRESS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL IN
FORCING TIDES TO CLIMB HIGHER. THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
THEMSELVES DUE TO A FULL MOON...WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR TIDE
LEVELS ENCROACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS
2 NIGHTS...THE TIDAL ANOMALY HAS BEEN +0.1 TO +0.3 FT AT HIGH
TIDE...WHICH HAS KEPT IT BASICALLY BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
TONIGHTS HIDE TIDE AT THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON GAGE IS AROUND 11 PM.
TO SUM IT UP...HAVE WITHHELD THE ISSUANCE OF A CFW FOR TONIGHTS HIGH
TIDE DUE TO BORDERLINE COASTAL FLOOD CONDITIONS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DOUGH
SHORT TERM...RICKK
LONG TERM...JOSHW
AVIATION...SANDYL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DOUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

745 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...BASICALLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AIR MASS
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO
LATE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS ARE 5 KT OR LESS. LOOKING KLTX VWP
AS WELL AS SURROUNDING 88D VWPS...WINDS ARE SW 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
LOWER 5K FT...AND FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20 KT FROM 9K FT AND UPWARDS.
BASICALLY THE 2 DIRECTIONS ARE CANCELING EACH OUT AND RESULTING IN
STORM MOTIONS 5 KT OR LESS WITH A VARIABLE DIRECTION. GIVEN LATEST
SURROUNDING VWPS AND 00Z RAOBS...A LOW LEVEL SW JET WILL LIKELY
FURTHER DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL
KEEP SW WINDS ON THE FRISKY SIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...FOG WILL
NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TO OCCUR WILL BE AREAS
WEST OF I-95. TWEAKED MINS AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE
LACK OF RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN.AS FOR
CLOUDS...DEBRIS CI/CS...OPAQUE AT TIMES...WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVERNIGHT.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE PATCHY/BRIEF MVFR FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE DURING
THE NEXT HOUR OR 2...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO SW AROUND
10 KT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURROUNDING VWPS AND 00Z
RAOBS...A LOW LEVEL JET WITH SW WINDS AT 15 TO 30 KT LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN INCREASE SW
WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD. THE SW 20+ KT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE ILM WATERS AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS.
THE ESE 1-2 FT 10-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL IS BASICALLY DRIVING
SIG SEAS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SW WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THE
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4-5 SECOND PERIODS WILL
DOMINATE THE SIG SEAS. EXPECT SIG SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 3 FT...
POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...THE FULL MOON TODAY WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS MAINLY IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM AND 1 AM IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON OCCURRING ABOUT AN HOUR LATER WITH EACH PASSING
DAY. PEOPLE GATHERING FOR THE FIRE-WORKS WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON MAY OBSERVE OR EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF WATER STREET AND BATTLESHIP ROAD.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

739 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN QUITE MEAGER
CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT CU AND CONVECTION FLARING FURTHER INLAND
ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. HRRR SHOWS BEST CHC OF CONVECTION OVER OUR
LOCAL AREA WOULD BE IN THE GEORGETOWN WILLIAMSBURG AREA ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE STEERING
FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK OUT OF THE N-NW AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANY
STORMS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST WITH BEST CHC OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN BERMUDA
HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY CU BUILD
UP THIS AFTERNOON OR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO COME TO AN END
LATE THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPS UP BETWEEN 90 AND 95 MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL
INTO THE 70S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SOUTH AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WILL DETERMINE THE
POP/CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BEST OMEGA OCCURS EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE/NVA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSTM COVERAGE...BUT
FEEL INHERITED LOW-CHANCE IS WARRANTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER
IMPULSE. CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED...AND WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE PATCHY/BRIEF MVFR FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LINGERING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GIVEN EXPECTED OPACITY AND COVERAGE...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY RESTRICTIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE TO 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LOW LEVEL JET SUSTAINED WINDS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO MVFR FOG FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AT SOME SITES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE INDICATED BY TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS.
AFTER DAYBREAK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE VCTS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE WERE
GUSTING ON SHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT LEADING UP TO SW
WINDS TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP FROM 2 FT TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MORNING. SEAS OF WILL BE COMPOSED OF S WAVES AROUND 2 FT AT 5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES ABOUT 1 FOOT EVERY 10 SECONDS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/JDW/RGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

545 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. HOW
MUCH THE INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO RECOVER IS IN QUESTION...
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH VEERING MANY WINDS IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
MID-LEVEL CAP BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH...
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER INDICES THIS MORNING...
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THE BEST MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND RAP TRENDS DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA BEING ABLE
TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER SOME IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DID SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...
SO WILL CONTINUE THE BASIC FORECAST OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
UNDER BETTER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH...AND WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD TAKE EVEN LONGER TO RECOVER.

OVERNIGHT...DESPITE GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EDGING BACK TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY...
MID-LEVEL NVA IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH 850MB SUBSIDENCE. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE...OVERALL...FAIRLY STABLE...AND WILL FORECAST THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEING DRY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A
FEW 60S READINGS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE OVERALL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR LATEST OVERNIGHT. UNDER LIGHT WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME LIGHT FOG OR AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE COULD OCCUR
AND BE NOTICED AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

TUESDAY...850-700MB LAPSE RATES RALLY BACK TO VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 8C/KM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER...AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
REGIONAL 850MB THETA-E MAXIMUM IN PLACE...AND THE APPROACH OF A
1.5PVU WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OR WESTERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1000J/KG...THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK APPEARS
REASONABLE.

HEAT ADVISORY VALUES SHOULD BE APPROACHED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM U.S. 1 EAST AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KMEB...THROUGH KFAY...TO ABOUT KRWI. EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
ON THE MARGINS...APPROACHING 105...AND FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
WILL NOT CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER DAY ALLOWING A
REVIEW OF LATER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE TO ASCERTAIN THE
DETAILS AND POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY MENTION THIS IN
AN UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND REGARDLESS...
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY IN
ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO CAUSE
SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE PRECIP WATER VALUES REACHING 1.8-2 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF VORTICES TRAVERSING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL AID TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS. WHILE EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
OCCUR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS...A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TO DROP SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A
GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WIND FIELD NOT OVERLY STRONG SUGGESTING SLOW
MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...MAINLY
IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...QUITE A BIT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WHICH WILL
BE DICTATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
THINK THAT WE MAY SEE QUITE OF BIT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING
LIMITING INSOLATION THOUGH SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN BY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...

THURSDAY...LOW-MID LEVEL NW FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE LINGERING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
T-STORMS THU AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS. THIS TOO WILL AID TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION BUT LEAD TO HOT TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY WILL EXPAND
EAST WITH NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY BOTH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WARMING ATMOSPHERE LEADS TO
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10M ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND 20M ABOVE ON
SATURDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY AND
MID-UPPER 90S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THOUGH MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO DIMINISH RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN OUR REGION.
STILL...WITH A MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DO EXPECT
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. THICKNESSES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL YIELDING MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND GAINS SOME AMPLITUDE.
THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW A S/W AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH/ENTER OUR REGION. WENT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE POP MONDAY WITH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER TEMPS THAN THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
GETTING CLOSE TO OR OVER A TAF SITE IS AT KFAY LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AREAS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALL TO MVFR IN LIGHT FOG OR
HAZE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KRWI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF. MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK AND TURN
LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10KT AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREAFTER...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE...MAINLY MVFR...COULD
OCCUR AS THE AIR MASS CHANGES LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)

JULY 3 (TUESDAY)
RDU: 98 (1955)
GSO: 98 (1911)
FAY: 100 (1954)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/30/2012, 6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988,
7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

305 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)

JULY 3 (TUESDAY)
RDU: 98 (1955)
GSO: 98 (1911)
FAY: 100 (1954)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/30/2012, 6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988,
7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

102 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM ...

MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
AND SOME SOMEWHAT COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION
OF A S/W TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WED-THU. THIS SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED MOIST
AXIS ALOFT...ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WED AND
THU. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE CAROLINAS/VA FRI-SUN...WHICH
SHOULD BOTH WARM TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 90S (94 TO 99) AND
DIMINISH CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NC...BY THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1013 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1013 AM...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE TROUGH
BISECTING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY A
REMNANT OF OVERNIGHT DEEP CONVECTION BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE REFLECTION
OF LOWER PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A MODESTLY-STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SWEEPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE
REFLECTION OF WHAT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY IN THE
MID LEVELS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER IN THE TROUGH...ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRENDING
SLIGHTLY COOLER ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS GREATEST IN VICINITY OF THE WAVE TO THE NORTH...AND EARLY
MORNING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...WHERE THE MSAS SHOWED LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW AS -4C AT 13Z.

MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE...AND FACTORING IN THE LOCATIONS OF
THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHS...THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
THEIR EXPECTED TRENDS...AND WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...IT APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
SHOULD BE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS.
THE LATEST NAM FORECAST DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF
KCLT AND KAFP THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING EAST AND THEN PROPAGATING
SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA OVER TIME. THE LATEST RAP IS SIMILAR...
JUST FARTHER WEST INITIALLY. HAVE OPTED TO LESSEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT...MAINTAINING SOLID CHANCES AND SCATTERED
WORDING FROM ROUGHLY KAFP THROUGH KFAY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
NAM ALSO FORECAST THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA...
SHIFTING SOUTH OVER TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
LIMITED HEATING IN MOST AREAS TO START THE DAY...BUT EVEN WITH THIS
WRITING BEING JUST AFTER 9 AM SUN-TIME...WILL NOT MODIFY
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. THE RAP WAS BETTER IN ITS DEPICTION OF
MORNING 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...SEVERAL METERS LOWER THAN THE NAM...
BUT EVEN ITS LATE AFTERNOON VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. OPTED TO SHAVE A DEGREE OFF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAXES...BUT
THIS STILL YIELDS SOME HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING
105F PARTICULARLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE SANDHILLS.
BASED ON THIS...AS WELL AS THE IMPACT OF THE CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL ENERGY PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
SOME DRYING ABOVE 15000 FEET. RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES 70 TO 75 WITH SOME UPPER
60S WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY COOL THE
ENVIRONMENT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM ...

MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY MORNING AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISING
TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND SOME SOMEWHAT COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES... ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS
TO INTERFERE WITH INSOLATION AND AN EARLY AFTERNOON START TO
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT MOST HIGHS TO THE MID 90S... WITH SOME
LOCATIONS PERHAPS FALLING SHORT OF THAT WITH CONVECTION. LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM...

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1013 AM...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO
TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS. SOME GUSTY WINDS...MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

NEAR TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

209 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE A HEAT
ADVISORY IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY SOUTHERN EXTENT TO THIS ACTIVITY. SPC IS MONITORING FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA FORMING NEAR GLENDIVE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SEEM TO BE ON TARGET WITH THIS IDEA.

SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND SHOULD
BE NEAR A CARRINGTON TO ASHLEY LINE BY 00Z TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT PER SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL BE
INFLUENCED THE MOST IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
THUS A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAMOURE/DICKEY/AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DWINDLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY A DRY MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WEST. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN SLOPE/BOWMAN
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDICES ARE FORECAST WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK WITH THE MOST CURRENT DATA TODAY BEFORE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH
THE AT LEAST MID WEEK. MODELS DIFFER LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SETTING UP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH MONTANA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BRING CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE REMAINING
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHUNT CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH DUE TO CAPPING.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A LARGE PART IN WHERE CONVECTION EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL LEAN TOWARD AN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION
HERE AS A RING OF FIRE PATTERN DEVELOPS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE GFS SUPPRESSES CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE
KEEPS CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. THINK THE GFS MAY BE TOO FAR
SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT...BUT STILL KEEPS
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.

.AVIATION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE LOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATE
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THIS SETUP...WE
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...OF ALL THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THEN CURRENT CONVECTION PER LOCAL AND
REGIONAL RADAR...AND WILL FOLLOW. ONE STRONG CELL IN EASTERN ADAMS
COUNTY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN SIOUX COUNTY
BY 0730Z. THE RADAR TEAM CONTINUES TO WATCH THIS STORM CLOSELY. THE
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE HRRR MODEL...THIS AREA WORKS INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/WILLISTON AREA...BY 08Z AND THEN SPREADS EAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z MONDAY.
COORDINATED WITH SPC AND WILL LET THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EXPIRE AT 05Z...THEN WATCH THE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND IF ANOTHER WATCH IS NEEDED WE WILL COORDINATE ONE.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WILL CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING AS
HUMIDITIES HAVE RECOVERED AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT OUT SOON.

A QUICK LOOK AHEAD INTO MONDAY...WILL NEED TO ASSESS A POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND ALSO LOOK AT
WHERE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO OCCUR.

.AVIATION...WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
KBIS AND KJMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY DAYTIME. MOST IF NOT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN ND/WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION....NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

934 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
WEST WILL KEEP THE OHIO VALLEY VERY WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PIVOT SE ACRS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...PUSHING SE TO ERN OHIO/PA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP DOES SHOW SOME 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SKIMMING OUR NE COUNTIES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT SE. HRRR INDICATES THAT
NE COUNTIES COULD GET GRAZED BY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THIS PERIOD. PREFER TO NOT WET UP THE FORECAST AFTER GOING DRY
PREVIOUSLY SO WILL MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE
FORECAST IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT THE FAR NE MAY RUN A RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM. MODELS REMAIN UNCLEAR WHETHER AN MCS
WILL DEVELOP OVER MN/WISCONSIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...DIVING SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

USED A BLEND OF ARW/ECMWF FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH COMPONENT TO THE PROPAGATION OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS OF A DISTURBANCE TO DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ARW
AND NAM...BUT NOT BY THE NMM. BASED ON HOW WELL THE ARW PERFORMED
24 HORUS OUT FOR THE PAST TWO EVENTS THIS WEEK...HAVE UPPED THE
POPS TO 50 FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. AVOIDED GOING ANY HIGHER FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS DURING THESE
MODES OF CONVECTION.

HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TOMORROW GIVEN THE
LOW TO MID 90S SEEN TODAY...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AS WELL. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES UP TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. AND...AT THE SAME TIME
SEVERAL COUNTIES STILL HAVE REDUCED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO
ONGOING POWER OUTAGES FROM SEVERE STORMS THIS PAST WEEKEND. ALL OF
THE ABOVE COMBINED TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MONTGOMERY AND HAMILTON FROM NOON ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD FOR HAMILTON AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY
NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN AN
AREA OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
STILL AFFECTING THE CWA...AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LOWS ABOVE 70 DEGREES AND A FORECAST
SOLIDLY SUPPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR EACH OF THESE
THREE DAYS...THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...IT WOULD BE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD...GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORCING SIGNALS ARE UNCERTAIN...AND MOST OF
THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN LEFT DRY IN THE GRIDS.

BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH INDICATING THE BEGINNING OF A
TRANSITION. A BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND THEIR
SUBSEQUENT RUNS DO NOT ALLOW FOR COMPLETE CERTAINTY...IT IS OBVIOUS
THAT THE TREND WILL BE FOR COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE USED FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ONE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IS IF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES...AND THIS
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO BE REFINED ONCE THE FRONTAL TIMING IS MORE
CERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE CWA.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR MIST AT KLUK AND KILN.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SOME. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MAY DRIFT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY IN WHICH IT WILL INTERACT WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUE OF THESE DISTURBANCES...HAVE KEPT THE TAFS
DRY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-
078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR OHZ061-077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

809 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG
THE TAIL END OF A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. LACK OF CU FIELD WEST OF THE COLUMBUS AREA
WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REMAIN CONFINED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAWARE
TO SCIOTO COUNTIES.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...AND THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...HAVE REMOVED
POPS BY MIDNIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THIS
EVENING AND BRINGING ITS WEAKENING REMNANTS INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SCENARIO...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. USED A BLEND OF ARW/ECMWF
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE WEST.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR MIST AT KLUK AND KILN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

751 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR MIST AT KLUK AND KILN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-
078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
077.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR OHZ061-077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

703 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 630 UPDATE. NO TSRA IN OHIO...BUT WITH
CAPES HOVERING AROUND 2000 J/KG NOT READY TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
YET. RIGHT NOW WATCHING SOME STORMS NE WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THEM.

IT REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR WHICH DID A DECENT JOB LAST
NIGHT...CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO THE NW AND W WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES SIMILAR TO EARLIER PACKAGE. WESTERN AREAS
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO
KNOW HOW MUCH OF THIS IS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THAT IT IS WHEN THE PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY MAX OUT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENT THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE WARNING AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL HANG ON TO A MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY
FOR DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
WARM AND HAVE GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED
TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WHEN SOME MVFR FOG WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP FOR INLAND TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR WESTERN TAF TONIGHT BUT THREAT TOO SMALL TO MENTION. BETTER
CHANCE FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THREAT STILL LIMITED
SO WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN NON VFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
STORMS.

.MARINE...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO CROSS THE LAKE. UNTIL THEN THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE LAKE APPEARS TO
BE QUIET...WITH WAVES STAYING 3 FEET OR LESS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY GET A LITTLE MORE CHOPPY WITH NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER THE FRONT.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB/KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CLEVELAND OH

628 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

IT REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR WHICH DID A DECENT JOB LAST
NIGHT...CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT WELL
TO THE NW AND W WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES SIMILAR TO EARLIER PACKAGE. WESTERN AREAS
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN NON VFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
STORMS.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB/KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

633 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA THAT DEVELOPED THIS EVENING HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
LAST HOUR AND ANY IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE GONE BY OOZ.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. NAM IS RATHER BULLISH WITH MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND CLIMO AND WILL
ONLY INTRODUCE SCT LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT CONVECTION AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF
MOST SITES AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. 38

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT A LOOP OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAVE HELD DOWN MAX TEMPS. STILL A FEW AREAS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW 90S AND WITH THE HEATING A FEW ISO STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR MOST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY ISO WITH NOT MUCH INCREASE IN COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD END
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

SO WILL WE HAVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY? WELL LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SCT
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AT LEAST WEST AND SOUTH OF HOUSTON METRO. GFS
STILL HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. UPPER RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE C PLAINS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE C GULF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP SUBSIDENCE AT A MINIMUM AND ALLOW FOR
PULSE CONVECTION. THINK THAT 30 POPS FOR THE AREAS ALONG US 59 SW
OF HOUSTON LOOKS GOOD WITH 20 POPS ELSEWHERE. DO NOT THINK
CONVECTION WILL LAST MUCH PAST THE LATE EVENING SO MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE A MINIMUM DRYING OUT BEFORE ANY FIREWORKS.

LONG TERM FORECAST IS BECOMING A BIT MORE INTERESTING AND
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. SAT INTO SUN THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE MID MISS RIVER BASIN SHOULD RETROGRADE BACK AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE INTO SE
TX FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE TX MON MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD GROW
DEEPER DURING THIS TIME FROM THE EAST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
REACH MORE THAN 2 INCHES. THIS AIRMASS HOLDS ONTO THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS EVEN SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO TX. ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BUT
SOMETHING THAT COULD STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK GOOD AND PLACED 30 POPS WHERE
CONVECTION LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT THIS POINT AND ALIGNED WITH BEST
MOISTURE AXIS.

AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.90
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL ALSO SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING INLAND ON THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
RELUCTANCE...DECIDED TO ADD VCSH FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TAF
SITES FROM 21-01Z. 43

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW ONSHORE WINDS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. A WEAK
GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MARINE
AREAS BOTH DAYS. 43

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 96 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 95 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 81 91 80 / 10 20 10 20 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...38

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

345 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS PLACED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN
NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES RECORDED. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
BEFORE OR NEAR SUNSET.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN SLIDE BACK
WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN. WITH THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...HAVE
INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN OF
ACTIVITY WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY ALSO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS START TO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYING OUT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND OR BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...STARTING ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THIS
BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.

82/JLD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 95 78 98 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
WACO, TX 77 96 77 97 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 72 94 73 95 74 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 76 95 75 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 74 95 75 97 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 77 95 79 99 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 75 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 94 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 73 94 73 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 95 73 98 73 / 20 20 10 10 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

14/82

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

307 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...AND WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HELP STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT
HEATING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE
SUPPORTS SOME POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS HINTED AT IN THE RUC.

WITH NW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.

WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE GFS KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AFTER 00Z WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS OR WARM FRONTAL TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND MINUS 7 TO OUR WEST FROM INDIANA
SOUTH TO TENNESSEE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DROP SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CWA TONIGHT.
PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONTS. HEAT INDEX REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. PLAYED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND MID RANGE
FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. HIGH LOWER A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND EACH ONE WILL SPARK A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES
CAN DEVELOP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...THERE COULD BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM OVER OHIO AND INDIANA.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
AGREE ON A MORE POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT EVENING...SO POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE MOMENTUM TRYING TO CROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AND IT MAY LIKELY STALL OUT BY MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS THROUGH VALID PERIOD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CONVECTION...CHANCES...AND TIMING. ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF A LATE
DAY/EVENING MCS APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT TODAY THAN SUNDAY AS UPPER
SUPPORT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT
ONE OF THAT MAGNITUDE TO ARRIVE LATER TUE.

THE WRFARW-RNK CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CALMER AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG EASTERN SLOPE OF
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION
DRIFTING NE FROM NE TN/NW NC AFT 00Z. KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN
TAFS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS OVER CHAOTIC AND LIGHT OUTSIDE TSRA ACTIVITY. FAVORED
DIRECTION/SPEED ONCE AGAIN NW 5-10KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW END GUSTS
ACROSS AREAS ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED INTO FRIDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1232 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE MOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS FINALLY
STABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE FROM THE PAST WEEKEND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE 8 AM RNK SOUNDING CONFIRMS THIS FACT WITH THE
DECENT INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE. POPS WERE LOWERED THIS MORNING
TO REFLECT THESE LATEST CONDITIONS...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WERE PLACED IN FAR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
ACCORDING TO CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

ANOTHER MCS RAKES THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SE
STATES...BUT MAINTAINING UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.
A DISTURBANCE...WELL PROGGED BY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS...TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SE WV/SW VA LATE
SUN...AND FUELED THE LATEST MCS. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT SUCH DISTURBANCES TO CONTINUE
TO BE A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT EARLY SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED SE OF THE CWA AND
LITTLE APPEARS UPSTREAM UNTIL AFT 00Z TONIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONG ALL SHORT RANGE/LONG RANGE MODELS FOR TODAY THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. AFT 00Z...AS
USUAL...MIXED SIGNALS EXIST ON CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES.
HOWEVER...MOST FAVORED SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NE TN AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NE INTO SW VA/NW NC THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY AS ANOTHER MCS OR
EVEN WARM FRONTAL TYPE EVENT. LOCAL WRF STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FURTHERMORE...SPC HAS BACKED OFF EARLIER SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA IN FAVOR OF JUST A 5 PERCENT RISK. THUS...HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z...WITH LOW END CHC POPS FAR SW VA/NW NC AFT 18Z. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO CHC CATEGORY MOST AREAS AFT 00Z FROM SW-NE..BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS SCENARIO.

THE OTHER STORY REMAINS THE HEAT. 850MB TEMPS SHOW VERY LITTLE
COOLING...STILL RUNNING +22 TO +24C ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN
TODAY...AND HOVERING AROUND +20C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT
LEAST...UNFORTUNATELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED GROUND MOISTENING
FROM DAILY CONVECTION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER AND OUTFLOW COOLING...ALL WILL HELP TO ABATE THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT. HEAT INDICES REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ALL
PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY...ONLY NEARING 100 IN THE FAR SE PART OF
THE CWA...NAMELY THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF NC. NONETHELESS...AS NOTED
ABOVE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...JUST NOT RECORD LEVELS AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTEN FOR BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH A TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...HELPING TO SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS IS TYPICAL
DURING THE SUMMER...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. STILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BOTH DAYS AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITS OVER THE PLAINS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT
WILL TRIGGER AN ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EITHER DAY. THAT
STATED...DO NOT REALLY SEE ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES IN THE FORECAST
MODEL DATA FOR EITHER DAY...AND BELIEVE CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE
TRIGGERED MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
FROM BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH DANVILLE VIRGINIA...MAINLY
BASED ON INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN.
AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE DID NOT REALLY RECEIVE MUCH RAIN...AND WITH
TIME TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY...DID NOT THINK SOIL MOISTURE WOULD PLAY
A ROLE. THEREFORE...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE IN THIS
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS DAY AS WELL.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
BY THURSDAY...AND MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAK 5H TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO DETER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHILE MAKING FOR MORE OF A NW FLOW MCS TYPE
SCENARIO LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES DIVE SE AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE MCS
COMPLEX ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
MAY MAKE A RUN BY SUNDAY PER LATEST GFS BUT GIVEN THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL GO CLOSER TO THE EURO AND HOLD THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE 90S EAST AND
CLOSE TO 90 OR WARMER WEST THRU THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS THROUGH VALID PERIOD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CONVECTION...CHANCES...AND TIMING. ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS OVER CHAOTIC AND LIGHT OUTSIDE TSRA ACTIVITY. FAVORED
DIRECTION/SPEED ONCE AGAIN NW 5-10KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW END GUSTS
ACROSS AREAS ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1216 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING HEAT
WAVE...WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1205 AM EDT MONDAY...

SVR TSTM WATCH 452 HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER OUR NC COUNTIES AND
EAST TO PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VA.

POPS ARE INCREASED AS LINE OF STORMS SHIFTS EAST AT 40-50
MPH...AND THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH 4 AM.

PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMET WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH POSSIBLE MCS AND
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
SWODY2 KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. HIGH MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS BACK TO THE NE UNDER EXPANDING HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COMBO WITH A LEFTOVER LEE TROF SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH POSSIBLE MCS FEATURES AGAIN DIVING SE INTO
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO THOUGH QUITE IFFY AS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE REDUCED SOME IF OVERNIGHT STORM
CLUSTERS DROP SE. THUS WILL RUN WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE
MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES...BUT LEAVE IN SOME POPS DURING THE
NIGHT PERIODS TO COVER. OTRW MORE WARM AND MUGGY GIVEN MOISTURE
AROUND BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT ESPCLY WEST WHERE MORE COOLING VIA
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING FOR AT
LEAST LOW/MID 90S EAST AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 90S AGAIN BY THE 4TH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WEAK 5H TROFFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO DETER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHILE MAKING FOR MORE OF A NW FLOW MCS TYPE
SCENARIO LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES DIVE SE AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWVER WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE MCS
COMPLEX ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
MAY MAKE A RUN BY SUNDAY PER LATEST GFS BUT GIVEN THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL GO CLOSER TO THE EURO AND HOLD THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE 90S EAST AND
CLOSE TO 90 OR WARMER WEST THRU THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST OVERALL WILL BE VFR BUT WILL BE DEALING AGAIN WITH
ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY.
ATTM...MODELS VARY TOO MUCH TO MAKE A CONFIDENT FORECAST. IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS THE LATEST RAP MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON THE FAST EDGE OF
THE STORMS IN OHIO/NW WV...BUT DOING THE BEST IN PLACEMENT. WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF VCTS COMING INTO LWB/BLF AT 0130Z THEN BCB/ROA BY
03Z...LASTING FOR 2-3 HRS. KEPT THE EAST FREE OF CONVECTON BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ANY STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY NW
WINDS AND THE RAP MODEL IS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD 1-2 HRS OF GUSTY
NW WINDS IN THE MTNS.

KEPT SOME MINOR FOG ISSUES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LWB BUT KEPT IT OUT ELSEWHERE.

FOR MONDAY...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE IN SOMETIME
BETWEEN DAWN AND MID AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS IT WILL BE VFR.

EXECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MONDAY- FRIDAY.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH BROKEN TODAY JULY 1ST FOR BLF WITH 90...WHICH BREAKS
THE OLD RECORD OF 88 IN 2005.

RECORD HIGHS:

FOR MONDAY/2ND
BLACKSBURG 95/1954
BLUEFIELD 87/2011
DANVILLE 100/1954
LYNCHBURG 99/1898
ROANOKE 100/1954

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

600 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND SPECIFICALLY DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
95 AND 103. TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WERE JUST IN THE 80S.

02.00Z MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN
SEEING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENT WITH LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING IN THE SAME AREA. SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 3 KILOMETERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS DO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING...PERHAPS JUST ON THE FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH CONSECUTIVE
RUNS...WHICH ALSO MATCHES WITH THE NAM. SHEAR DIMINISHES AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON AND EXPECT THIS TO DIE OUT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
CONVECTION NOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN
MCS AND DIVE EAST- SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE
NAM AND GFS. THUS HAVE KEPT PROBABILITIES IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. TRACK AND STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

MCS WILL PUSH EAST TUESDAY MORNING....WITH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
BUILD NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S CELSIUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 90S AND PERHAPS SOME LOW 100S IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS.
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR THE WARMER PORTIONS OF
THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT...IS DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES.
HOWEVER...THESE LOWER DEW POINTS MAY THEN RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT AND DID GO AHEAD AND
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

UPPER RIDGE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN
BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS ITS TOP.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT ADVISORIES REMAINING
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED UNTIL RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN THIS WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

CONVECTION FIRING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...IN RESPONSE TO UNSTABLE
AIR INTERACTING WITH THE CLASH BETWEEN A LAKE BREEZE AND A
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING PORTION OF A SFC FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY
TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS THE LEADING CAUSE OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TS OVER
ND/NORTHERN MN. SOME MESO MODELS...ALA THE HRRR...FAVOR MOVING THIS
CLUSTER INTO NORTHERN WI...THEN DIVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. RAP CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS MOVEMENT.
MEANWHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS THE CLUSTER STEADY TO THE EAST. IF IT
DIVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KLSE COULD BE IMPACTED. SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD
SEEM TO FAVOR A DUE EAST MOVEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVE THOUGH...WHILE
THE 500-300 MB FLOW STAYS EAST VIA THE RAP/NAM12. GOING TO STAY DRY
FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

.CLIMATE...
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
COULD RESULT IN DAILY LOSSES OF 0.35 TO 0.40 INCH FROM THE SOILS.
IN ADDITION...THE CORN CROP COULD BE USING A 0.25 TO 0.30 OF AN
INCH PER DAY. THIS IS ITS HIGHEST USAGE FOR ITS LIFE CYCLE. RAIN
IS CRITICAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SINCE THIS IS WHEN IT WILL BE
CREATING ITS EARS.

LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE
NEAR THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
RECORD HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON
THE 4TH WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS
TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GREEN BAY WI

523 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SEVERE WITH MAINLY HAIL FIRED UP ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
NEW LONDON TO SHAWANO. ANTICIPATE MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THIS
SAME VICINITY THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS THESE STORMS TRACK FURTHER
EAST...RADAR IS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND.

TDH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COMBINATION OF WARM FROM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...INCREASING INSTABLITY AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM MINNESOTA HAVE COMBINED
TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE FOX VALLEY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRYING TO INITIATE NEAR
THE WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF WAUSHARA NORTH TO SOUTHERN SHAWANO
COUNTIES. HRRR HAS ALSO HINTED AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORMING IN
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
WAUSAU NORTH TO RHINELANDER. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...THEN DIMINSH AFTER SUNSET.

BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS OFFER
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR MCS INITIATION OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD PROPAGATION
THEREAFTER. ACTIVTY IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING...BUT SUSPECT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
...ACTIVITY SHOULD GET ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
ANY MCS THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED WILL LIKELY HEAD ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PERHAPS TURN MORE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOX VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TAPPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MCS ACTIVITY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA.

AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY MET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN COORDINATIN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES OPTED
TO START EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND PCPN CHANCES...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 95-105 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. FOR PROLONGED EVENTS OF 4 DAYS OR LONGER...WE LOWER
THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TO 95+...WHICH MAKES THE ISSUANCE OF
AN ADVISORY AN EASIER CALL. RIGHT NOW...THE HOTTEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE THURSDAY...WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO
100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF C/EC/NE WI. FORTUNATELY DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE SANDY SOIL LOCATIONS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY ARE WARMEST SPOTS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR HEAT INDICES MAINLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND
GENERALLY COVER AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO SHAWANO TO
GREEN BAY...EXCLUDING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

OUR BEST PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW AND WEAK...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AT 925/850
MB. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...
BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...THINK THAT OUR CURRENT 20-30 POPS
WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES FROM WEDS THROUGH
THU NGT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CHANCE
POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE SECOND FROPA ON FRI/FRI NGT...WITH
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE FOX VALLEY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...THEN AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH ANY MCS ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINLY ON TRACK
OF THIS COMPLEX ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER IN RHI TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>039-045-
048-049.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

400 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND PCPN CHANCES...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>039-045-
048-049.

$$
ESB/KIECKBUSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

341 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE THE EXTREMELY LIMITED ACTIVITY ON
THE RADAR...NOT QUITE READY TO GIVE UP ON THE CHANCE YET. THERE IS
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOW STARTING TO SHOW A FEW LARGER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA IN COLUMBIA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BASED ON THE RAP MODEL SHOWS VERY HIGH CAPE
VALUES /BOTH MIXED LAYER AND SURFACE/ AND LIMITED CIN VALUES OVER
ALL OF WISCONSIN. WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN
THE 90S IN PLACE...THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A TRIGGER. WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BOTH LOW
LEVEL AND BULK...WHICH LIMITS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AFTER DARK WHEN THE LAKE BREEZE GIVES UP...THEN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END. WARM NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MET IN THE EVENING AND THEN STEADY TEMPS OR
GRADUAL WARMING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 22 KNOTS/24 MPH WILL
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND NOON TO 2 PM AND THEN THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO OVER 850MB. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 30C
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 23C YIELD MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 100F. EXPECT
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS TO START OUT AROUND 70 IN THE MORNING AND MIX OUT
INTO THE MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE AND THEY COULD MIX EVEN LOWER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE PARKED IN NORTHERN WI DURING THE DAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE
DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SRN WI LATE TUE NT AND WED AND
SLOWLY LIFT NWD FOR THU. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TUE NT OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED WITH LITTLE TO NO
FRONTAL LIFT. HOT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER HUNDREDS. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S FOR FAR ERN WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN USA WILL BUCKLE SOME AND BECOME
NWLY ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO IL/IA DURING
THE WEEKEND. THUS HIGH TEMPS DROP INTO THE 80S CWA WIDE FOR SUN
AND MON. OTHERWISE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
INTO FRI EVENING BUT WILL WATCH FOR SATURDAY.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOOKING A LITTLE BIGGER THAN OTHERS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE. A FEW
RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD. IF A SITE GETS CONVECTION...WILL SEE LOWER MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON. NO LAKE BREEZE ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET TUE EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LAKE BREEZE.

.MARINE...

BREEZY AND WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER LAKE WILL CREATE A
STABILIZING EFFECT AND WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHTER. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHING THE CRITICAL LEVEL ON
TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CAUSE OF CONCERN FOR HEADLINES. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ052-060-066-
071-072.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>059-
062>065-067>070.

LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO
CENTRAL WI...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. MODELS SHOWING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN PEAK
HEATING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF
SITES NEAR I-94. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AN NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. GAIN...LOOKS LIKE THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN MID CLOUD WITH BASES AOA 7KFT. OTHERWISE...
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LATER COOLS TONIGHT WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
PLACE...PLAN ON SOME LIGHT 4-5SM BR. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR THE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DURING THE DAY AND 75-80 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

.CLIMATE...
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

357 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY
356 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO MADISON.
THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE THIS FRONT IS GENERALLY SOUTH WITH DEW
POINTS RANGING AROUND 70. MEANWHILE THE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
ARE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. WITH LIMITED 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND
LITTLE FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...THE BOTH THE
MESO MODELS AND BROADER SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE WARM
FRONT. THIS MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT IMPINGING
ON THE WARM FRONT AND THE MODELS SHOWING THAT THE CAP ALOFT WILL
BE WEAKER IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS.

WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...
DECIDED TO JOIN MPX AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TOO.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND
THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB JET. THE CORFIDI VECTORS DO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE JET THINKING THAT THIS
SCENARIO HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING...SO ONLY HAVE A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH A STRONG CAP ALOFT AND LITTLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
IT...PREFER THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF DRIER SOLUTIONS OVER THE MUCH
WETTER GFS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...ONLY INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...THERE WILL BE NO BREAK IN THE HEAT.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS
FRONT. DUE TO THIS...JUST INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
356 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEFORE
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE 90S. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT THE ABNORMALLY DRY
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ON THE DEW POINTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB EVEN MORE. MEANWHILE IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR
AND THE DEW POINTS REMAIN AROUND 70...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT
BE AS HIGH. THE HEAT INDICES WOULD LIKELY BE THE SAME IN EITHER
SITUATION. AS THIS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES...IT WILL TAX THE BODIES OF
YOUNG CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO ARE SICK EVEN MORE. WE
MAY EVENTUALLY END UP GOING WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO
HANDLE ITS DURATION.

.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

CONVECTION OVER MN QUICKLY DIED OFF AFTER SUNDOWN...AND NOT MUCH
FOCUS FOR FURTHER SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL...A SFC
BOUNDARY RUNS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN WI...AND THE HRRR HINTS
THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD POP AROUND IT TOWARD MORNING. IF IT WOULD
DEVELOP...IT SHOULD STAY NORTH/EAST OF KRST/KLSE.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HOVER OR LIFT MORE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
ON MONDAY....REMAINING A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT. MOST MODELS
WOULD KEEP THE PCPN THREAT NORTH/EAST OF KRST/KLSE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.

LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS.

.CLIMATE...
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE
NEAR THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
RECORD HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON
THE 4TH WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS
TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ032-033-041-053>055-061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MN GOING OVER AN UNCAPPED REGION...AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC FRONT...AND
A WEAK IMPULSE A LOFT. SOME MESO MODELS SUGGEST PCPN COULD EXPAND
EAST OF THIS...ABOVE THE CAP...EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST
RAP WOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THAT SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HANG NORTH...OR
MOVE MORE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SO...THINK THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT YET.
WILL LOWER CHANCES A BIT TONIGHT AND MONITOR FOR TRENDS. MAY NEED
ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
PCPN THREAT IS EVEN LESS...OR ENDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE CONTINUED HEAT
THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MET EACH DAY. ONCE AGAIN
CAVEAT WOULD BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THAT WOULD MITIGATE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT WOULD LEAD TO EASING OF THE
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITIES BY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS.

.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.

LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

920 PM MST TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. LESS ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS...THEN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE AZ AT 0415Z. FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WAS VOID OF
PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS SWRN
COCHISE COUNTY...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM MST. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR SWRN COCHISE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF TOMBSTONE...UNTIL 1115 PM MST.

04/02Z RUC13 AND 04/00Z RUC HRRR AGREE THAT THE FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIP THRU MIDNIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA...OR FAR
SE PIMA/SANTA CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTIES. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN PRECIP IS PROGGED VIA
THE 04/00Z NAM TO REGENERATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WED.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WILL MAKE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND WED BASED ON THE VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AS WELL AS THE 04/00Z NAM. HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE NEARLY 15 DEGS F
OR SO BELOW NORMAL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR TOMORROW EXPECTING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN...BUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTING A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE DESERTS/VALLEYS AND
CHANCE POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD I KEPT THE INHERITED POP FORECAST WHICH BASICALLY
CALLS FOR A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST OF LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DESERTS/VALLEYS AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA THRU WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR 05/00Z. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN THE VICINITY OF STRONGEST TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS MAINLY
5-8K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. LESS ACTIVITY IS ON TAP
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

404 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
SE MINNESOTA. THE 06Z WRF-NAM AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS MOISTURE. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND THIS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
VALUES DISCUSSED BELOW.

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEFORE JUMPING INTO FORECAST WANTED TO DO A QUICK REFRESHER FOR WHAT
OUR HEAT ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA IS. FIRST...EVERYWHERE THE
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES. THE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IS MUCH MORE COMPLEX.
FIRST...OUTSIDE OF COOK COUNTY THE CRITERIA IS AT LEAST 48 HOURS
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES 110F+ WITH MIN HEAT INDICES OF 75 EACH
NIGHT...OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAN BE ISSUED FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF MAX HEAT INDICES 105F+ AND MIN HEAT INDICES 75F+. FOR COOK
COUNTY THERE ARE 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR A HEAT WARNING. 1) 3 DAYS
OF MAX HEAT INDEX 100F+ WITH 85% SUNSHINE 2 OF THE DAYS OR NIGHT
TIME HEAT INDICES 80F+ OR 2) 2 DAYS OF MAX HEAT INDEX 105F+ OR 3) 1
DAY OF MAX HEAT INDEX 110F+. WANTED TO SPELL OUT THE CRITERIA SINCE
ITS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD AND SINCE HEADLINE DECISIONS WERE A BIG
FOCUS OF THIS MORNING`S FORECAST.

AFTER CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HELD TEMPS DOWN A BIT
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER TODAY THAT TEMPS WILL CRACK THE
CENTURY MARK IN MANY AREAS. ALREADY SEEING 20M 500MB HEIGHT RISES AT
ILX/DVN WITH MODEL FORECASTING HEIGHT RISES OF ANOTHER 20M OR SO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INDICATIVE OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE THREAT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW MUCKING THINGS UP APPEARS LOWER. IN ADDITION...WRF-NAM AND
ECMWF 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
99-104 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ALMOST OBLIVIOUS
AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON NOW LET ALONE WHAT MAY HAPPEN. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER STILL WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
WARM 1-2C AND 500MB HEIGHTS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR WHAT COULD BE THE HOTTEST AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
1995 KILLER HEAT WAVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN FLIRTING WITH CHICAGO`S ALL
TIME RECORD HIGH OF 105F. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH WEAK LAKE BREEZE
COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON
PROVIDING A BIT OF RELIEF CLOSE TO THE LAKE...BUT THE RELIEF SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED WITH LAND BREEZE SENDING EVENING TEMPS CLIMBING. IN
FACT...NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE CITY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT EXPERIENCING HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S (STILL 94 HEAT INDEX DOWNTOWN AT 220AM THIS MORNING).

THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK REVOLVES AROUND DEWPOINTS AND HOW MUCH
PERSPIRING CORN CAN COMPENSATE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING. ADMITTEDLY...OUR SKILL AT DEWPOINT FORECASTING IS NOT ALL
THAT HIGH WITH MEAN ABSOLUTE ERRORS OF 3-4F FOR 24 HOUR DEWPOINT
FORECASTS...WHICH LEAVES OPEN A GOOD 6-8F SIZED RANGE OF POSSIBILITY
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WHICH HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HEAT
INDICES. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINT FORECASTS HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110F ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTER SPOTS GETTING A BIT ABOVE 110F. ITS
WORTH NOTING A 3-4F ERROR IN DEWPOINTS WOULD CORRESPOND TO ABOUT A
5F ERROR IN FORECASTED HEAT INDICES.

CONSIDERING EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN DEPTH ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS HEAT
INDICES FELL SHORT OF THE 105F ADVISORY THRESHOLD THE PAST 2 DAYS
MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA FOR A HEAT WARNING.
IF DEWPOINTS STAY UP MORE THAN FORECAST AND HEAT INDICES GET ABOVE
110F THIS AFTERNOON THEN DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO THINK AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION FOR NOW. FOR COOK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO WHERE
WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND POPULATION
DENSITY/SOCIECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL BE UPGRADING TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL LIKELY MEET 2 AND 3 DAY CRITERIA
AND COULD EVEN MEET THE 1 DAY WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DOES LEAVE US AS AN ISLAND
SURROUNDED BY WARNINGS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND WE NOT EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON LET
ALONE WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO...AN ADVISORY OUTLYING AREAS AND
WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY WILL FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO DUE TO THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. NOT ONLY WILL DAYTIME TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEARLY 20F
HIGHER ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND DANGER OF THE HEAT WAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENTED BY THE LAKE. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHILE GFS/GEM/WRF-NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED FROPA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. TOOK
A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW WITH FROPA STARTING NEAR UGN AROUND
18Z BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST FARTHER INLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY...DEWPOINT
POOLING MAY OFFSET ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS AND RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES EVEN HIGHER THAN THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMP/HEAT INDEX
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS GOING TO HINGE HEAVILY ON FROPA TIMING...ANY
SPEEDING UP OF FROPA COULD RESULT IN TEMPS BEING COOLER AND POSSIBLY
AN EARLIER ENDING TO THE HEAT HEADLINES.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AND ERASES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE CERTAINLY ARE NOT PLUSES FOR THE T-STORM POTENTIAL AND
THINK CHANCES MAY EVEN BE A BIT LOWER THAN 20%...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPES LIKELY OVER 5000 J/KG) AND 0-8KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 40KT THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
VERY HIGH CONTINGENT ON A STORM DEVELOPING. GIVEN THIS FELT IT WAS
BEST TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING 21-03Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM
GOING UP ON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING FURTHER AND NO APPARENT TRIGGER...PLUS WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-ACCESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

INITIALLY EXPECTING FROPA FRIDAY TO BE DRY AS FRONT SHOULD BE
SHALLOW AND UPPER HEIGHTS VERY HIGH...BUT WITH TIME THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL GET BEAT DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING...THOUGH STILL RATHER LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY HANGS UP IN THE AREA. MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND SHOULD END UP DRY...HOWEVER IT COULD RAIN AT ANY TIME WHICH
NECESSITATES CARRYING POPS EACH PERIOD UNFORTUNATELY. MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANY AREA THAT DOES NOT PICK UP
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL BE UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY
DROUGHT RELIEF NEXT WEEK AS ALL CURRENT INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE AN ANOTHER DRY PATTERN WITH LITTLE HOPE
FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF JULY.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ORD/MDW.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5KT OR SO OVERNIGHT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-12 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM
MOVING TOO FAR INLAND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS JUST WEAK ENOUGH THAT
A LAKE BREEZE WILL PROBABLY FORM AT THE SHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND COULD POTENTIALLY TURN WINDS NORTHERLY AT GYY. THE LAKE
BREEZE...ASSUMING IT FORMS...COULD POSSIBLY AID ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AND LAKE
BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR.
* SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

KJB

.MARINE...

306 AM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY AND WASH OUT AS IT REACHES THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
LAKE...MKE/MKG REGION. WHILE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY...SPEEDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GRADIENT WILL RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES BEHIND THIS FRONT...
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH END OF THE
LAKE. CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

356 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

.PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ORD/MDW.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AND LAKE
BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR.
* SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

KJB

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

306 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
412 PM CDT

WE STAY WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT FOR NEAR
80 DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.

JEE

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
TUE 102 78 99 74
1949 1911 1925 1911

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ORD/MDW.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AND LAKE
BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR.
* SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

KJB

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1224 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
412 PM CDT

WE STAY WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT FOR NEAR
80 DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.

JEE

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
TUE 102 78 99 74
1949 1911 1925 1911

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ORD/MDW.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AND LAKE
BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR.
* SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

KJB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...ILZ014...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9 PM
THURSDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/

THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF DEW POINTS DROPPING TONIGHT
AND THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SHEETS

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

310 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE ANALYSIS OF THE 04/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SLIGHT CHANGES
FROM YESTERDAY, WITH A 90 TO 110 KNOT EASTERLY JET ZIPPING THROUGH
OREGON AND TURNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, THEN
TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A SOUTHERLY JET IN THE 90 KNOT RANGE WAS FROM EASTERN QUEBEC TO A
POINT ABOUT 125 MILES OFF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE 250MB LEVEL WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS. AT THE 500MB LEVEL, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
RAN NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
AND THEN CONTINUED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A LOW PRESSURE
SHORT WAVE HAD FORMED OVER WESTERN ALBERTA SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH A
TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON. THE 700MB
CHART DISPLAYED A SIMILAR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS DID THE 500MB
CHART, AND ALSO HAD A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE
700MB TEMPERATURE AT DDC WAS 11C DEGREES, THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN
THE PAST 3 DAYS. AT THE 850MB LEVEL, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAINTAINED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS WERE EVIDENT BOTH WEST AND EAST OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE AT DDC WAS 27C DEGREES, EXACTLY
WHAT IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE NOTICEABLE FROM
YESTERDAY IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS, WITH THE
DDC 850MB DEW POINT AT +11C.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN COLORADO COLLIDED
WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA TO TRIGGER A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN WESTERN KANSAS ABOUT 04-05Z. BOTH THE
HRRR AND RUC MODELS BRING THIS PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR CWA, INCLUDING DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES TOWARD 12Z. I HAVE PLACED LOW 16 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR WESTERN 1/3RD AND SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH
14Z. RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS OF 07Z HAD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON A
DISSIPATING AND DOWNWARD TREND. WENT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY LOW QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.01
RANGE. DO NOT THINK ANY ONE LOCATION WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, AS THE MID LAYERS ARE REALLY DRY. THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO,
WITH OUR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING IN THE 18G28MPH RANGE FOR THE REST OF THIS 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. I AM SURE THE AREA FIREWORKS AND FIRE DEPARTMENTS WILL
NOT LIKE THIS WIND FORECAST, BUT THE A GOOD FORECAST IS BETTER
THAN A WISHFUL FORECAST. IT WILL AGAIN BE HOT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FROM 98F IN ELKHART TO 103F NEAR HAYS, VERY CLOSE TO
WHAT THE MAX TEMPERATURES WERE TUESDAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP IN THE 15G20 MPH RANGE THROUGH 03Z, THEN
THE WINDS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 10 MPH BY 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS, BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
IN THE 69F DEGREES (XTRM SOUTHWEST AROUND ELKHART) TO AROUND 74F
DEGREES (NORTHEAST NEAR HAYS) RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A 500 HPA
RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S DEG F.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAR WEST
ENOUGH AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO KANSAS. THE MODELS
ARE STILL INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS NEXT WEEK. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH
LOWER MAX/MINS AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH 10Z. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS, SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY INTO THE 17G27 KNOT RANGE. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 100 72 99 72 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 98 71 96 70 / 20 10 0 0
LBL 99 71 98 71 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 103 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
P28 101 74 101 74 / 20 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

239 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

...UPDATED FOR THE SYNOPSIS AND THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD RETROGRESSION MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, A
SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE CLIMBING NORTHEAST
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALONG WITH A
PREVAILING LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY INTO
EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS, EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THAT, WILL
KEEP A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS HINT AT A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE PULLS FURTHER
WEST. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR TO POSSIBLY JUST ABOVE NORMAL
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN H85 TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF
MID TO UPPER 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE
UPPER 90S(F) TO JUST ABOVE 100F WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER
60S(F) TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S(F) THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PULL BACK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

338 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND WILL ALSO MENTION SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE THE HRRR TO TIME PRECIPITATION THEN
TRANSITION TO MODEL BLEND LATER IN MORNING. WILL USE THE SREF FOR
POPS. FOR WIND WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND GMOS. THE GMOS USED FOR
TEMPERATURE AND WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES.
FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANED CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF BLENDED W/THE SREF FOR THE POPS CYCLE.

THEREFORE, SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND ON THURSDAY AND CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL LEAD TO A CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND A VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAX DIVING SE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR FORCING TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SBCAPES FROM THE MDL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWN TO BE LESS THAN 500 JOULES AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS KEEPING
INSTABILITY DOWN. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS
OUT OF THE FCST. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED BUOYANCY AND THEREFORE A UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE RE-ASSESSED BY THE DAYCREW. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW/S
MAXES FOR THURSDAY W/MID TO UPPER 70S. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AS CLOSED LOW MIGRATES E
AND UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO
FORM BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEREFORE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS FOR
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES E BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APCHS FROM QUEBEC. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE COMBINED
W/DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SBCAPES
MAXING OUT AROUND 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR(0-6KM) IS FCST TO BE
30-35 KTS. MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FCST TO HIT THE 80S FOR MOST OF OF THE CWA AS WELL. STAYED W/TSTMS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYCREW HAD. STILL SOME TIME TO ASSESS
WHETHER ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOADED GMOS AND THEN BLENDED IN THE ECMWF TO FIT BETTER W/THE
PRECIP CHANCES AND SKY.

GMOS SKY GRIDS NOT MATCHING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR SATURDAY INTO
POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK W/CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SE CANADA
ALLOW FOR SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS MEANS
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY COULD BE THE BETTER DAY OF ALL AS WEAK SFC
RIDGING COULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY.

GMOS TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE BUT TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
UPWARD GIVEN THE OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN. KNOCKED DOWN POPS FOR
MONDAY GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS POINT TO A DRY PROFILE THROUGH
700MBS.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR THURSDAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE
IFR/MVFR THREAT GOING. VFR FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
W/AN OCNL SHOWER DROPPING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY TO MVFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WIND. WILL LOW
MODEL WINDS 1 TO 2 KNOTS. FOR WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED WITH
SWAN/NAM. BASED ON SPECTRAL WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH BIAS
FOR WIND WAVES. SO WILL LOWER WAVES 1 FOOT THROUGH PERIOD. LONG
PERIOD WAVE GROUPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 1 FOOT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12
WAS USED FOR THE WINDS INTO FRIDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED W/A BLEND
OF THE GMOS AND GFS40. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS AT BEST W/WAVE
HEIGHTS NO MORE THAN 3 FT. A SWELL GENERATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
PERIOD INCREASES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY W/LOW PRES MOVING E
THROUGH THE OPEN ATLC.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

135 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

WITH LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER VBSYS TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST SITES FOR THIS WOULD BE SAW AND CMX AND WENT WITH
LOWEST VIS THERE. IWD IS A BIT TOUGHER AND THINK FOG WILL BE
TRANSIENT OVERNIGHT THERE. FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY WED MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

445 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING OUT THE GATE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING COOL FRONT.

VERY WARM MID LEVELS HAVE THUS FAR KEPT CONVECTION UNDER
CONTROL...BUT THERE PERSISTS AN E-W BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS ACORSS CENTRAL MN INTO WC WI ON THE NORTHERN PERIFERY
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S.
THEN ACROSS MN INTO WI. HRRR HAS GENERALLY BEEN HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT THAT IT WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIMINISHING
DINURAL TREND DURING THE MORNING.

MAY SEE A FEW TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND OVERNITE IN N CWA AND
THEN THIS EVENING IN WC MN AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY IN WAKE OF COOL FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT AND THEN INTO WC WI/S MN ON THURSDAY.
PROGRESSED LOW POPS TSTMS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT. WILL BE
BORDERLINE HEAT WARNING IN CENTRAL MN FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME
COOLING AND BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT LEFT WARNING IN FOR NOW
ALONG WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU AND
FLATTENS RIDGE. WITH HIGH PWATS COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS. IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...MAY APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN FRIDAY IN SC MN.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WE GET INTO A NW FLOW PATTERN AS HOT UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES AND BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN STATES
GIVING US RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD BE A GENERALLY
DRY PATTERN...BUT SOME THREAT OF SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN RIDGE
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS...BUT NOT ENUF CONFIDENCE TO PUT
ANY PCPN INTO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

STNRY FRONT DRAPED ACRS CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK N AS A WMFNT DURG THE DAY TMRW. SMALL CHC SOME ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FNT IN WRN SD THAT COULD RIDE
ENE ALONG THE FNT...POSSIBLY COMING CLOSE TO KAXN-KSTC BEFORE
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...MORE STABLE AIR AND UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
TIMING PLUS LACK ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY PRECLUDE MENTION. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME MODELS TO TRY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ARND 12Z.
HAVE GONE MORE OPTIMISTIC...OMITTING PRECIP ATTM...AND RUNNING
WITH BKN HIGHER CEILINGS. DID KEEP MENTION OF PRE-DAWN GROUND FOG
IN THE WI TAF SITES...ONLY DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESSENING CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LGT/VRBL WINDS EARLY ON IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME
SE TO S DURG THE DAY AND EVEN A LITTLE GUSTY BY MID-AFTN BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN ARND SUNSET.

MSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF. PRECIP CHCS TOO LOW AND
LOCATION OF ANY DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR N TO IMPACT MSP.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS OVER THE TERMINAL WITH LITTLE TO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AFTER LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG...WINDS WILL
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SLY THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO ARND 15 KT.
WINDS THEN SETTLE DOWN TNGT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PRECIP EVEN
INTO THU MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
.THURSDAY...VFR. CHC SHOWER/TSTMS AFTERNOON/EVENING .WINDS S
10-20KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE
LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

BAP/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

402 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAT AND
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CHANCES TODAY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY...STRONG COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE NEAR THE WESTERN FA AT 18Z AND THROUGH THE FA BY 06Z. A
VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE DVL BASIN
WITH HEAT INDICES 100F-110F EXPECTED. REGARDING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES....A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG. VERY WARM MID-
LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE STRONG
CAPPING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH HELP FOR
DETAILS REGARDING WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. 3-KM HRRR AND 4-KM WRF
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING THE COMPLEX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING. NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION BEST. GIVEN BUILDING WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS...THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH (BUT WILL BE
CLOSE) AND WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SITUATION IS MORE
UNCLEAR FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY
DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN MODEL
GUIDANCE...BEST THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE MID-LEVEL TEMPS
ARE COOLEST AND MODELS INDICATE MLCIN NEARLY GONE BY 18-21Z. THIS
SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED DEW POINT VALUES MID-UPPER 70S. SPC
ONLY HAS A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL INSERT SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES. MAIN THREAT LIKELY LARGE
HAIL AND BOW-ECHO STRONG STRAIT LINE WINDS. KEPT ISOLD THUNDER
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FA COULD REMAIN DRY TODAY.

THUR-FRI...VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
ALONG WITH RIDGING. BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK
NORTH THUR NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN FA. INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...BUT PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES SHOULD LEAD TO LONG DURATION
RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED TIME FRAME. 500MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NW FLOW
ACROSS THE CWFA WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS A RESULT MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AFTER THE CHC IN THE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR STORMS WILL BE
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AFFECTING
KTVF AND KBJI.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

$$
TG/JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

339 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT EXPECTED BE NEAR/ALONG A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY BE
CONFINED IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH A DRY FROPA ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER WILL METWATCH CLOSELY AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING SOME SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DRIER AIR/LOWER DEW POINTS ARRIVING DURING THE DAY. STILL
WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 80F AND 90F. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SETTLES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WITH LOWS
BETWEEN 50F AND 60F. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SLATED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN
MCS EVENT...STARTING IN WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH
INTERSTATE 94 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOK
REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE HPC QPF AMOUNTS.
POSSIBLE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER COULD BE AROUND
1. 5 INCHES. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR RIDGE TOPPERS TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
LESS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOLLOW.

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED NEXT 24HR. POSSIBLE
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KMOT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KJMS
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1248 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND WE HAVE COLLECTIVELY
EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 04/08Z. CONCERN IS
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS AREA FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SOUTH. JUST NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL
COME TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE APPROPRIATE COUNTIES COVERED FOR THE
EASTWARD TREND OVERNIGHT...BUT IF A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION BEGINS WE
WILL NEED TO MAKE QUICK ADJUSTMENTS.

ALSO...WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING HYDRO CONCERNS IN THE NORTHWEST
AS REPETITIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE.

LATEST PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24HR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR KISN/KMOT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE
DRY WEATHER IN THE 06Z TAFS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS. REST OF THE AERODROMES ARE FORECAST TO BE DRY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION..KS
AVIATION...RK/KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

201 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PIVOT SE ACRS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...PUSHING SE TO ERN OHIO/PA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP DOES SHOW SOME 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SKIMMING OUR NE COUNTIES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT SE. HRRR INDICATES THAT
NE COUNTIES COULD GET GRAZED BY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THIS PERIOD. PREFER TO NOT WET UP THE FORECAST AFTER GOING DRY
PREVIOUSLY SO WILL MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE
FORECAST IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT THE FAR NE MAY RUN A RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM. MODELS REMAIN UNCLEAR WHETHER AN MCS
WILL DEVELOP OVER MN/WISCONSIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...DIVING SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

USED A BLEND OF ARW/ECMWF FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH COMPONENT TO THE PROPAGATION OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS OF A DISTURBANCE TO DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ARW
AND NAM...BUT NOT BY THE NMM. BASED ON HOW WELL THE ARW PERFORMED
24 HORUS OUT FOR THE PAST TWO EVENTS THIS WEEK...HAVE UPPED THE
POPS TO 50 FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. AVOIDED GOING ANY HIGHER FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS DURING THESE
MODES OF CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY
NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN AN
AREA OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
STILL AFFECTING THE CWA...AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR ALMOST A WEEK WILL
FLUCTUATE AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE CENTER SLIPPING EWD A LITTLE. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED. THIS MAY ALLOW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO DRIFT DOWN FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THIS IS ENUF
TO KICK OFF CONVECTION AS DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUE OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND THE QUESTION OVER
COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS DRY.

SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT ILN/LUK

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR OHZ061-077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

152 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TRIED TO DRY OUT AREA BEHIND S/W TROF AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...WHICH WAS JUST APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE FCST
ON TRACK.

10 PM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...LOWERING IN MOST AREAS BUT RAISING A BIT NEAR A BOUNDARY
WHERE THE CURRENT STORMS ARE TRACKING.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST THRU THE CWA WILL CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD. WITH A HOT AND HUMID AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS WILL BE DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. AS
USUAL IN THIS REGIME...THE HI RES MODELS WERE USED VERY HEAVILY.

THE HRRR HI RES MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE A COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS...SO WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS EVENING IN NORTHEASTERN WV.
OTHERWISE...CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES AND SLIGHT CHAN
TONIGHT.

GOING ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY WOULD VARY THAT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE 4TH OF JULY FOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. THE EXACT
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION IS IN QUESTION.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ONLY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM. ONCE AGAIN...THE CWA IS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW IS
NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SOUTHWEST. HAVE FOLLOWED
HPC AND KEPT HOT TEMPS AND CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE MID WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS. OTHERWISE...
EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 07Z TO 12Z
WED...EXPECT VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FOG MAY START TO REFORM
TOWARD 06Z THU...DEPENDING UPON WHERE IT RAINS WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. TAFS WILL NEED UPDATED WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 07/04/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M L M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...RPY/TRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

443 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROF/VORTICITY AXIS CONTINUES TO
PUSH SEWD ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EXITS SE PA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...LKLY ELEVATED...LOCATED ON THE SW FLANK OF
THE VORT AXIS NEAR PITTSBURGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALONG/EAST OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. SATL DATA SHOWS CLEARING TO THE NW OF DUJ-ELM LINE WITH
FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF H5 TROF AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS QUIET EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER ALL BETS ARE OFF FOR LATER
IN THE DAY...AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE NERN FRINGE OF HOT CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE WITHIN BELT OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

WITH A RATHER WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN FCST TO BE IN PLACE
LACKING A TRUE FORCING/TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR GENERATING
SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...EXPECT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO BE NON-FOCUSED AND DISORGANIZED...DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SMALL/SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING SEWD DOWN THE FRONT-SIDE OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. THE HI RES MDL DATA MAY BE PICKING
UP ON ONE OF THESE SMALL/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WHICH APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIATED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVR THE THUMB OF LWR MI/LK
HURON. BOTH THE 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
CROSSING LAKE ERIE AROUND MID MORNING AND ENTERING THE NW MTNS
AROUND 18Z.

GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...BROAD-BRUSHED LOW TO MEDIUM CHC
POPS FOR THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. CVRG SHOULD BE ISOLD TO SCT GIVEN
WEAK FORCING AND MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE
SEE TEXT CATG D1 OUTLOOK WITH LOW-PROBABILITY OF SVR.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY THU...RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVE TSTM WILL
BE POSS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THESE TO A MINIMUM. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. MORE HOT WEATHER IN STORE
FOR FRI AND SAT...WITH READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL /AND HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 100F IN THE SE/. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY IF DEWPOINTS INCH CLOSER TO 70F...BUT DEEPEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST. NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE MUGGY AND WARM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS...ALLOWING MID LEVEL TROUGH TO SLOWLY SAG OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED
CHANCES FOR TSTMS INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY...AND
THEN ACROSS PA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE SUMMERTIME HEAT...DROPPING TEMPS
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS MARCH EASTWARD AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...EXTENDING SOUTH OF IPT AND STRETCHING SOUTH TO
CHAMBERSBURG WILL MOVE THROUGH HARRISBURG FROM 06 TO 07Z...AND
REACHING LNS BY 07Z.

EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA AND SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY JST...AOO...MDT AND LNS. IFR CONDITIONS AT JST
AND AOO ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 09Z. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MDT AND LNS.

ONCE THESE STORMS PASS...LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN KBFD...WITH
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME MVFR
FOG FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE.

STORMS SHOULD REGENERATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE AIRMASS
WILL BE VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS TODAY...EVEN MORE MUGGY. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
LEAVING 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS UNTOUCHED BY INCLEMENT WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
THU...AM FOG POSS W MTNS. OTHERWISE VFR.

FRI...VFR.

SAT-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

349 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 115 THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AT 3 AM...THE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME ECHOES FROM WILLMAR
MINNESOTA EAST TO RHINELANDER WISCONSIN. RED WING JUST REPORTED A
SPRINKLE OUT OF THIS CONVECTION. THIS IS THE ONLY REPORT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS MORNING. THESE ECHOES
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE LOCATED AROUND 600 MB
WHICH WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. IN ADDITION...THE RAP SUGGESTS SOME ELEVATED
CAPE UP TO 700 J/KG. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE CONSIDERING THAT
THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR...RAP...
AND ARW SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR THROUGH 04.15Z. AS A RESULT...KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
BE LOCATED UNDER A 10 TO 14C CAP. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPINGE ON THE FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SAME
INDICATION HAS SHOWED UP OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS AND STILL HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA...SO DECIDED TO GO DRY.
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WE WILL MIX UP TO 750 MB.
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE ECMWF ARE OVER 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS...SO EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE NAM/WRF MOVES THIS FRONT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MINNESOTA BORDER. MEANWHILE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKE
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY FRONTOGENESIS
OR EVEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AT MANY
LEVELS THE LIGHT WINDS ARE ACTUALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT AND
THERE IS STILL A 10-12C CAP IN PLACE ALOFT...SO STILL NOT
CONVINCED THAT WE WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THESE TIME
PERIODS. AS A RESULT...ONLY WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MIXING UP TO
750 MB...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM AROUND 100 TO 105. HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 105 TO 115. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE ECMWF ARE
ONCE AGAIN OVER 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...SO EXPECTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SET.

ON FRIDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
STILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH TOO. SINCE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT AND USUALLY DOES THE
BETTER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...RAISED THE TEMPERATURES A BIT AND
ONLY WENT WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF AN AUSTIN
MINNESOTA TO NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN. WITH LITTLE SHEAR...NOT
EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GEM...NAM/WRF...AND ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...PREFER THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS...SO
LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND
RAISED THE LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OR FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ONLY WENT WITH
30 AND 40 PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING. NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT
IR SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BOTH THE 04.00Z NAM AND 04.01Z HRRR LATCH ON
TO THIS AND DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD MOVE ALMOST
STRAIGHT EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHILE THE HRRR TAKES IT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STILL HAVE SERIOUS
DOUBTS ABOUT THIS DEVELOPMENT AS THE 04.00Z KABR SOUNDING WAS
PRETTY DRY ABOVE THE CAP. THE KMPX SOUNDING DID SHOW A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE AROUND 600 MB BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN
CLOUDS. THE DOWNSTREAM SOUNDING AT KOAX WAS VERY DRY SO NO
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO ADVECT IN TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT. WILL
STAY WITH A DRY AND CLOUD FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. THE VISIBILITY AT KRST HAS BEEN GOING DOWN AND CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR HAZE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

332 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

ADDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WITH THE 4
DAY IDEA OF HITTING 100 DEGREES HEAT INDEX. INCLUDED MILWAUKEE
COUNTY AS WELL. THEY WILL HAVE 48 HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA
AND LINGERED INTO FRIDAY WITH QUALIFYING FOR THE 4 DAY 100 DEGREE
IDEA AS WELL.

TODAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

500 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ABOUT 40 METERS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. NAM/ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 31 TO
32C...SUGGESTING 2-4 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER YESTERDAY. SO SHOULD
SEE MORE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING OFF IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT SHOULD MIX INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LACK OF SOIL
MOISTURE. EXCEPTION WILL BE FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN CLOSER TO NORMAL PAST FEW WEEKS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES IT REMAINS LOW ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE RIDGE RIMMING MCS ACTIVITY TODAY IN WISCONSIN. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE LATELY...THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA IS EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
NEGATIVES ARE VERY WARM 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +24C AND
+13C RESPECTIVELY. POSITIVES INCLUDE ORIENTATION OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS STRUGGLED SO FAR. OF MORE INTEREST IS MCS
ALONG NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...WHICH HRRR TURNS INTO A BOW
ECHO AND MOVES TOWARD NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AROUND MIDDAY HOURS.
SEEMS THIS WOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN STALLED
BOUNDARY AND HIGH INSTABILITY FORCED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST HALF MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE IS DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN MN/IA THIS EVENING AND INTO WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE TAPPING PART OF THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INTO FOUR CORNERS
AND THEN TO NEBRASKA. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND KEEP IT DRY...BUT CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE WITH 591DM CONTOUR EXPANDS FURTHER INTO WI WITH VERY HOT
CONDITIONS. 925 TEMPS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE 32-34C WHICH
SUGGESTS TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER DEW POINT
SOLUTIONS WITH MIXING AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES
AND WITH WEAK GRADIENT...WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO LAKESHORE AREAS. HOWEVER WITH EXPECTED HEAT INDICES
COMBINED WITH PAST CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND WARNING A FEW MORE
COUNTIES BUT KEEP OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN AT ADVISORY.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SUGGEST 594DM VERY CLOSE TO SRN WI WITH A WEAK LOBE OF
VORTICITY. LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME BECOMES MORE NNE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK TROUGH...HOWEVER PROGGED THERMAL ADVECTION IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL LEAVE HEAT HEADLINES IN
PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH SOME TEMP DECREASE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN CWA AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES THIS PERIOD WITH 500 MILLIBAR NORTHWEST FLOW
EVOLVING. UPPER JET CORE GRADUALLY BECOMES SITUATED SO THAT SRN WI
IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. STEADY 925/850
MILLIBAR COOL ADVECTION WITH CORE OF HOT AIRMASS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF WI. 850 MILLIBAR DEW POINT GRADIENT WITH WIND SHIFT LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE UPPER JET SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NOTED. GFS MOST ROBUST ON QPF WHILE ECMWF MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE. WILL
HAVE CHANCY POPS FOR NOW PER ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET AND RATHER REFRESHING PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WITH HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR ABNORMALLY HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDES. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH WEAK STALLED FRONT
IN AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AS PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO JUSTIFY.

WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES IN THE MID
AFTERNOON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
056>059-062>072.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FORECAST PROBLEMS DURING THE PERIOD FOCUSED ON HEAT AND HOW
WARM...AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES. ONGOING FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED
TOO MUCH. LACK OF FORCING LENDS ITSELF TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON HEAT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BATTLING FROM THE CLOUDY
START AND 100S SEEM A STRETCH AT THIS POINT. THIS SHOWS THAT WE
NEED A PRETTY CLEAN SKY FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ANY CLOUDS OR RAIN WOULD IMPACT THOSE
NUMBERS. ANY BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION HAVE NOW BEEN
MIXED OUT AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND. 19Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR I-90 IN
SWRN MN WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. WHILE THIS SHOULD BE CAPPED
IN THE HEART OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT...WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT /STATIONARY FRONT/ IS
STILL ORIENTED FROM KEAU-KMSN/KMKX SO THERE IS WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT THROUGH THAT AREA IN THE LOW-LEVELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ANY CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ERN WI.

MORNING RAOBS SHOW THE WARM AIR PROD AT 850MB POINTED RIGHT AT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 25C AT OMAHA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A CLOSELY RELATED
TO 100F AT THE SURFACE WHEN MIXING WELL FOR IOWA /PER WFO DMX
HISTORICAL WORK THEY DID TODAY/. THIS WARM PROD...INCLUDING 31-34C
AIR AT 925 MB AND DEEP MIXING FORECAST BY THE 03.00Z AND 03.12Z
ECMWF AND 03.12Z NAM RUNS...SUGGEST 100F HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TARGET. RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE THE HOTTEST AREAS WITH DEEPER MIXING
AND SANDY SOILS. HAVE COME DOWN A BIT ON HIGHS WED/THU BUT NOT
MUCH. DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THUS HEAT WARNING IS ON TRACK. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS
PROD MOVES RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

HOWEVER....HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES ON THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST NORTH
OF I-90 AS IT SEEMS A DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM ROCKIES...
AND HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION OVER SD SHOULD WORK TO ENERGIZE THIS
WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD KDLH OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE AND INSTABILITY LATER
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE CAP ORIENTATION I-90 AND SOUTH...WILL ALLOW
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL WI TO BE OPEN FOR SOME POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA
LATE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 A BIT WEDNESDAY...AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 30S. ARW WRF MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS
COULD BE A BIT STRONGER COMPLEX /BUT NOT SEVERE/ THAN THE BROKEN
UP SYSTEM HI-RES NMM WRF RUNS SUGGEST. OVERALL...JUST INCREASED THE
WEATHER A BIT WEDNESDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WILL STILL
BE HOT AND MAINLY CLEAR IT SEEMS. THURSDAY IS PROBABLY THE HOTTEST
DAY AS LIMITED FORCING SHOULD MEAN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND MAXIMUM
HEATING. LOW-LEVEL AIR IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WED/THU...IN RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES
WAY SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY. AREAS NORTH OF I-90...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN WI...WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA FRIDAY IF THE COOLER TREND CONTINUES. THEY WILL ALSO HAVE
RAIN CHANCES THERE. FRIDAY IS STILL VERY HOT ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE THERE UNTIL SATURDAY. WILL NOT MAKE
CHANGES TO THE HEAT WARNING FOR FRIDAY YET...WILL WAIT TO GET MORE
DETAILS ON THE FRONTAL TIMING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS PERIOD STARTS HOT AND ENDS COMFORTABLE. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE
GIVES WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW TROUGHING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND POST-FRONTAL RAIN
BANDING WHERE THE CAP FINALLY WEAKENS /BEHIND THE FRONT/...MEANING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MOST AREAS. WOULD THINK THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE. A BIT TOUGH TO DISCERN SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME BUT
SOME SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST OF SUNDAY-TUESDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND NEAR NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...A NICE BREAK FROM THE HEAT.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1032 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARM SECTOR. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREA IS
IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WHERE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN IN THE 60S TO
L70S. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF A FORCING OR LIFTING
MECHANISM...COUPLED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 600-700 HPA /EVIDENT ON THE 12Z KALB
SOUNDING/ ...SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. WE
WILL MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS ON THE RISE TO
1.25-1.50". THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME ISOLD CONVECTION...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS LITTLE OR NO
ACTIVITY.

ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
SUNSET...BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES FOR
TODAY OF AROUND 97 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE...SO NO HEAT ADVISORIES CONTEMPLATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT DEFINITELY LESS HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS DROPS
OUT OF CANADA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE WARM HOWEVER...WITH
READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ON THURSDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO 90...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE DECREASING
INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACH +20 DEG CELSIUS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL IT WONT BE VERY HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. VARIOUS SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING AT LEAST LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS DEPICTS MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GGEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING A MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY COINCIDENT WITH
THE FRONT. WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE INDICATED LOW CHANCE POPS.

IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A PUSH OF A LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO COOL
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND REINFORCING COOL FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOW SCT-BKN STATUS DECK MAINLY
EAST AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING ONLY
SCT CU DEVELOPING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...THE
PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME
RADIATION FOG FORMATION. MAIN TERMINALS FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
ARE KGFL/PSF. MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE DRYING OF THE AIR MASS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MORE PREVALENT/DENSE FOG
FORMATION.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING AROUND 10-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ESPECIALLY AT
KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG/BR.
FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 40 TO 55
PERCENT TODAY...AND RISE TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES THE
RAINFALL WILL IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS NEW YORK NY

738 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE
AREA IN A WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ITS PARENT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE FIRST MORNING UPDATE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND IR SATELLITE. LOOKS LIKE
MOST SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OFFSHORE SHOULD BE
EXITING OUT OF THE FORECAST REGION BEFORE 15Z WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING OF SKIES THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY ON TRACK.

FOR TODAY...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST...LEAVING THE REGION IN A WARM SECTOR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. ONE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AT 500MB WILL BE EXITING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SOME NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL. THIS COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA
WILL BE APPROACHING BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE EVENING
AND THIS IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 250MB JET STREAK WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING. 04Z RUN OF HRRR INDICATING CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
19Z ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS. THIS INITIATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE SETUP OF THE DAYTIME TROUGH WITHIN THE REGION
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES FROM SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT AT 250MB TO ABOUT 40-50 KT BY THE END OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
OF SFC BASED CAPE SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH THE
INCREASE IN SHEAR TO 30 TO 40 KT...HIGHEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CT AS
WELL AS INCREASED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME RATHER STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE
AROUND 11 KFT...SO SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS THE
AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

CONCERNING HEAT...HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
DIURNAL WARMING AND LEADING TO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 DEGREES C WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH VERTICAL MIXING TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL...PROBABLY
MORE TOWARDS 800 MB TOWARDS WESTERN LOCATIONS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHOULD HELP BOOST THESE TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY QUICKLY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NEAR NEW YORK CITY HEAT INDICES WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH NEWARK NEAR 100 AS WELL AS SOME
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THEREFORE CAPE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
MAV/MET BLEND USED FOR LOWS.

THURSDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BY 1-2 DEGREES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THERMODYNAMIC
WARMING DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 90 FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR NEW YORK CITY. EVEN
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OCCASIONALLY GET
TO AT LEAST 95 DEGREES. THEREFORE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CITY AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS RESULTING IN A
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE VORTEX REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER SPINNING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
NOAM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS S OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY AND HOT CONDS CONTINUING. NAM H85 TEMPS ARE ON THE LOW
END OF THE GUIDANCE FRI SO HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO GFS/EC WHICH RANGE
BETWEEN 16-19C. LOWER DEWPOINTS ON FRI SHOULD KEEP MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW 95.

THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH WITH ITS MAX T FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTREME HEAT EVENTS THIS SEASON...SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
EC ON SAT WHICH IS INDICATING H85 TEMPS AROUND 21-22C. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE N ON SAT...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXPECTED
TO PRECEDE IT. LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A WARM NOSE AROUND
H8 WHICH WOULD PUT A LID ON ANY CONVECTION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN
INDICATING THIS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTN
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY ULTIMATELY PLAY A
ROLE AND KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE POOLING EXPECTED
WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S SAT AFTN. HEAT
ADVSYS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONAL AVGS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION...AND AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON AND WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...STILL EXPECT DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR FOR THE
PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. A FEW LEFT
OVER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z. CIGS REMAIN BKN-OVC AROUND 100KFT THROUGH 14Z...THEN WE
SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MORNINGS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINALS.

A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE CITY
TERMINALS...WITH LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT
THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...MAINLY ISP/BDR/GON...AND JFK. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THE TROUGH COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY AND TAF AMENDMENTS WILL
BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

TONIGHT...WINDS AT ALL THE TERMINALS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. LATE DAY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 21-22Z.
AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. LATE DAY SEABREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 20Z

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY.

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SORT OF TRAINING OF CELLS LEADING TO
A MINOR FLOODING THREAT.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE BEEN HIGHER AT NIGHT AND FOR TONIGHT...THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY TONIGHT. DATA WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF SITES WILL GET
CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL
THE SITES WILL FALL AT LEAST A TENTH BELOW.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
176-178.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

737 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR FOR THE
PERIOD.

TONIGHT...WINDS AT ALL THE TERMINALS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. LATE DAY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 21-22Z.
AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHIFTING WINDS
TODAY. LATE DAY SEABREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 20Z

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY.

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SORT OF TRAINING OF CELLS LEADING TO
A MINOR FLOODING THREAT.

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

707 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IT
WILL TURN MUCH LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU AND FRI. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURN SAT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INCREASES THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. THEN A PATTERN
CHANGE TOWARD LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVES SUN AND
CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
THESE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS TO EXIT THE REGION BY MID MORNING. ONCE
THE WARM FRONT AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DESTABLIZE THE ATM BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND XSXNS SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION/CAP WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUBSIDENCE ALSO
RESULTS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN DRYING
SUBSTANTIALY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED. THE CONDITIONS
LISTED ABOVE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF ANY STORMS TO SUB-
SEVERE.

NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY QPF AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY AFTN
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED-WDLY SCT. THUS NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FCST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SHRTWV TROF AXIS AND
ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS ALONG A SFC
WARM FRNT GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS
/LINGERING LONGER MORESO FOR THE E SHORELINE AS THE MAIN UPR LVL
LOW WITH THE TROF AXIS DIGS INTO THE GULF OF ME AND BEGINS TO
UNDERGO OCCLUSION...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS
OUT OF THE BOSTON AREA/.

THERE ARE STILL STRONG INDICATIONS THAT TO THE REAR OF THE SHRTWV
TROF AXIS...THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF THE ATMOS
COLUMN COMBINED WITH A MORE WLY /CONTINENTAL/ COMPONENT OF FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS AROUND THE NOONTIME INTO EARLY AFTN
PD...AND WHILE THE STRONG JULY SUN WILL PROMOTE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TOWARDS DESTABILIZING THE ATMOS BOUNDARY LYR...AIR
DRAWN TO THE REAR OF THE SHRTWV TROF AXIS MAY PSBLY CAP THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT TOWARDS AFTN CONVECTION AS RISING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED
WITH WARMING WITHIN THE H5-6 LYR IS EVIDENT IN MUCH OF THE MDL
SOLNS.

WITH THE KNOWLEDGE OF GRADUAL CLEARING YIELDING INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG /THE NATURE OF WHICH IS THIN AND ELONGATED THRU
THE ATMOS COLUMN...AND DEPENDS ON SFC DWPTS WHICH COULD DRY WITH
MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR INFILTRATING AT THE MID-LVLS YIELDING LESSER
CAPE AMNTS/ IN A CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING 40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR NW TO SE THRU NEW ENGLAND AND A PSBL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND
H5 GIVES THE FEELING OF SCTD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTN PD. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE /LAPSE RATES ARE POOR AND
H5 TEMPS AVG AROUND -7C/...RATHER FEEL THE AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE
SIMPLY A NUISANCE TO AFTN INTO EVNG 4TH OF JULY PLANS. EXACT
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SPECIFICS ARE UNCERTAIN...EARLIER WRF MDL RUNS
PAINTED THE GREATEST THREAT OVER N/E MA...NOW THE THREAT COULD BE
ANYWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THERE IS STILL SOME FEELING THAT PERHAPS SHOULD INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR COMBINE EFFECTIVELY PROMOTING STRONG AND SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS...THAT PERHAPS CORES COULD RISE EXCEPTIONALLY INTO THE UPR
ATMOS...HELD LONG ENOUGH TO THE POINT WHEN THE WEIGHT EXCEEDS THE
RISE RESULTING IN THE CORE TO FALL AND CONSEQUENTIALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC /THUS THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF PSBL
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/. AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE THREAT.

A FINAL NOTE...LOOKING UPSTREAM LATE LAST NIGHT...TO THE REAR OF THE
MAIN SHRTWV TROF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE NERN
CONUS EXHIBITED IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE REAR...BUT DESTABILIZING
OF THE LOCAL ATMOS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FOLLOW-UP SFC COLD FRNT.
NOTHING WAS SEVERE. FEEL SUCH OUTCOMES MAY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE
OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL STACK AS IT BECOMES OCCLUDED ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA.
CONSEQUENTIALLY...HIGH PRES WITH MID-UPR LVL DRY AIR BUILDS SEWD OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATE SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS UNDER WLY FLOW
/MAINLY ACROSS E NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS/...GRADUALLY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS WINDS TURN NWLY WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRNT BY THURS MORN. CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AS MOISTURE SWIRLS AROUND THE LARGER LOW PRES WITHIN THE LOW-MID
LVLS. SO EXPECT SCTD-BKN CUMULUS ACROSS THE RGN UNDER NWLY FLOW WITH
A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LYR UP TO H85 /TEMPS AROUND +15C WITH THE JULY
SUN YIELD MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY AROUND THE MID 80S/. THUS A DRY DAY
ON TAP WITH A MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM /SHOULD SEE
GUSTS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH/.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...

CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA PROVIDES SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THU NGT INTO FRI. THEN A
BRIEF RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER SAT AS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ADVECTS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS THE U/A
PTN SHIFTS TO +PNA WITH THE WARM RIDGE/HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
PLAINS RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND WESTERN CANADA
BEGINNING SUN AND CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS INDUCES A
HIGH AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS COOLING BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM
LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...OTHER THAN
A LOW RISK OF CONVECTION SAT/SAT NGT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FROPA...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD.

MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA ALONG WITH THIS PTN CHANGE TO +PNA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THE FROPA MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION SUN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST. THUS 00Z GMOS SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN SEEMS
REASONABLE.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...

7 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 13-15Z. NO TSRA THIS MORNING.
AFTN SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON VSBY IMPACTS /INCLUDING FOG WED NGT INTO THURS MORN/. BETTER
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS...WILL KEEP ALL SITES ABOVE MVFR.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHRA SHOULD EXIT AND MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND 13Z. MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CIGS THEREAFTER WITH ANY
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW RISK OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED-WDLY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING...THEN IMPROVING LATER SUN.

.MARINE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS UNDER S/SW FLOW FOR THE MORNING PD...BECOMING
WLY AND IMPROVING INTO THE AFTN HRS. THEREAFTER THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS INTO EVNG. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE. ENERGY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER A SECONDARY COLD FRNT FOLLOWED-UP BY NW FLOW
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD. LOW RISK OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE SAT INTO SUN AM AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...YIELDING NOT MUCH WIND WAVE OR SWELL TO SPEAK
OF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL - UPDATED 707 AM
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL - UPDATED 707 AM
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1040 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1038 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR REST OF TODAY...

ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS TO OFFICIAL FORECAST GRID SET MADE BASED ON
NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON
DERIVED TEXT PRODUCTS. SO...CONTINUED VERY HOT AND HUMID.

QUESTIONABLE IF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MAKE IT TO THE SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
WSW-W UP AROUND 10 KT THROUGH 00Z WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE FOR MAKING AN APPEARANCE. CURRENTLY FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE
IT AT THE SHORE TIL AROUND 23Z SO EVEN IF DOES MAKE ANY PROGRESS
ASHORE IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON MAX TEMPS DUE TO LATE IN
DAY TIMING.

AN SLIM CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DOES STILL EXIST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS NE IL AND NW IND AS
THIS AXIS OF MAX INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND SE OUT OF WI. BESIDES
POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE SHORE WILL NOT
BE ANY SURFACE FEATURES TO ACT AS A FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND FORCED UVV. ALSO DO NOT SEE ANYTHING UPSTREAM IN MODELS OR
SATELLITE LOOPS TO PROVIDE MID -UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

THERE IS A SHORT WAVE THAT GENERATED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
MSP DURING THE EARLY MORNING CURRENTLY TURNING FROM ESE TO SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF NE IL
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND E OF NW IND BY MID AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA SO WILL LET RIDE.

TRS

.PREV DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK REVOLVES AROUND DEW POINTS AND HOW MUCH
PERSPIRING CORN CAN COMPENSATE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING. ADMITTEDLY...OUR SKILL AT DEW POINT FORECASTING IS NOT ALL
THAT HIGH WITH MEAN ABSOLUTE ERRORS OF 3-4F FOR 24 HOUR DEW POINT
FORECASTS...WHICH LEAVES OPEN A GOOD 6-8F SIZED RANGE OF POSSIBILITY
FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WHICH HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HEAT
INDICES. BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINT FORECASTS HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110F ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTER SPOTS GETTING A BIT ABOVE 110F. ITS
WORTH NOTING A 3-4F ERROR IN DEW POINTS WOULD CORRESPOND TO ABOUT A
5F ERROR IN FORE CASTED HEAT INDICES.

CONSIDERING EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN DEPTH ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS HEAT
INDICES FELL SHORT OF THE 105F ADVISORY THRESHOLD THE PAST 2 DAYS
MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA FOR A HEAT WARNING.
IF DEW POINTS STAY UP MORE THAN FORECAST AND HEAT INDICES GET ABOVE
110F THIS AFTERNOON THEN DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO THINK AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION FOR NOW. FOR COOK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO WHERE
WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND POPULATION
DENSITY/SOCIOECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL BE UPGRADING TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL LIKELY MEET 2 AND 3 DAY CRITERIA
AND COULD EVEN MEET THE 1 DAY WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DOES LEAVE US AS AN ISLAND
SURROUNDED BY WARNINGS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT DEW POINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND WE NOT EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON LET
ALONE WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO...AN ADVISORY OUTLYING AREAS AND
WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY WILL FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO DUE TO THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. NOT ONLY WILL DAYTIME TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEARLY 20F
HIGHER ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND DANGER OF THE HEAT WAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENTED BY THE LAKE. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHILE GFS/GEM/WRF-NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED FROPA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. TOOK
A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW WITH FROPA STARTING NEAR UGN AROUND
18Z BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST FARTHER INLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY...DEW POINT
POOLING MAY OFFSET ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS AND RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES EVEN HIGHER THAN THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMP/HEAT INDEX
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS GOING TO HINGE HEAVILY ON FROPA TIMING...ANY
SPEEDING UP OF FROPA COULD RESULT IN TEMPS BEING COOLER AND POSSIBLY
AN EARLIER ENDING TO THE HEAT HEADLINES.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AND ERASES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE CERTAINLY ARE NOT PLUSES FOR THE T-STORM POTENTIAL AND
THINK CHANCES MAY EVEN BE A BIT LOWER THAN 20%...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (ML CAPES LIKELY OVER 5000 J/KG) AND 0-8KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 40KT THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
VERY HIGH CONTINGENT ON A STORM DEVELOPING. GIVEN THIS FELT IT WAS
BEST TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING 21-03Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM
GOING UP ON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING FURTHER AND NO APPARENT TRIGGER...PLUS WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-ACCESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LOW
LEVEL MIXING...EXPECT SPEEDS 9-12KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND
5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ENOUGH THAT
A LAKE BREEZE MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM
MOVING TOO FAR INLAND...PERHAPS TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY AT GYY.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE...10-15 PERCENT...THAT IF A LAKE
BREEZE FORMS...IT MAY AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THIS FORECAST
BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

846 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CONSIDERING EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN DEPTH ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS HEAT
INDICES FELL SHORT OF THE 105F ADVISORY THRESHOLD THE PAST 2 DAYS
MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA FOR A HEAT WARNING.
IF DEWPOINTS STAY UP MORE THAN FORECAST AND HEAT INDICES GET ABOVE
110F THIS AFTERNOON THEN DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO THINK AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION FOR NOW. FOR COOK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO WHERE
WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND POPULATION
DENSITY/SOCIOECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL BE UPGRADING TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL LIKELY MEET 2 AND 3 DAY CRITERIA
AND COULD EVEN MEET THE 1 DAY WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DOES LEAVE US AS AN ISLAND
SURROUNDED BY WARNINGS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND WE NOT EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON LET
ALONE WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO...AN ADVISORY OUTLYING AREAS AND
WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY WILL FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO DUE TO THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. NOT ONLY WILL DAYTIME TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEARLY 20F
HIGHER ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND DANGER OF THE HEAT WAVE.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

629 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* NONE. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AND LAKE
BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

909 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO WILL LEAVE AS IS.
LATEST MODELS STILL HAVE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
LEOTI TO HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SPEEDS BEING
THE MAIN QUESTION. MAX WIND GUST FROM THE NAM SHOWS WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FOR A BRIEF
TIME. HESITATE TO JUMP ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INCREASED WINDS
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN...OVER THE NAM WHICH IS HANDLING THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN QUITE WELL SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OUT EAST IN THE EVENT A
HIGHLITE IS NEEDED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH WILL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HOW HOT TO KEEP
IT/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN CANADA WITH PERSISTENT/BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGHS NEAR THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER JET. THE MODELS WERE HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER RIDGE WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING A TENDENCY TO NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH. THE SREF...
UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER IN THIS RESPECT. THE
NAM AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS ON
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA. FOR
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD...THE NAM AND UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE
SREF/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE. RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES SUPPORT THE NAM AS WELL. FOR THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE EVENING...THE NAM AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN TOO DRY AND THE GFS TOO WET.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING A BOUNDARY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NAM HAS BEEN DOING
WELL RECENTLY IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
OTHER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND SREF. SREF IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE NAM ON THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

AS A RESULT THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INCOMING FRONT STALLS OUT AT. HIGH
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF. STORM MOVEMENT IS NEAR 10 KNOTS AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO A SLIGHT CROSS COMPONENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE COLD POOL PRODUCED BY THE STORMS AND
LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS THE FRONT ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. COULD END UP HAVING THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
OVER THE SAME AREA IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL 850/2 METER CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY SO KEPT MAXES ABOUT
THE SAME. IF MORE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS SOONER...THIS COULD HOLD DOWN
THE MAXES IN THE WEST. BEST COMBINATION OF HIGHEST WINDS/LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME AND BELIEVE MAY NOT BE 3 HOURS WORTH OF
CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
ABOUT THIS.

THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
PUSHES BETTER DEEP FOCUS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FURTHER WEST PLUS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EVEN MORE. ALSO STORM MOVEMENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLOW AND MORE SOUTH TO NORTH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD CHANGES
LITTLE AND CLOUD COVER COULD BE THE ONLY THING THAT MAY CAUSE ANY
COOL DOWN BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT RIGHT NOW. AGAIN MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

THURSDAY NIGHT...PER THE REASONING ABOVE LOW POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR WEST.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD AGAIN CONFINE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SHOULD AGAIN
HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
EXPECTED DUE TO SLOW SOUTH TO NORTH MOVEMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME AGAIN AND KEPT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN EXIST...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW HOT TO MAKE
IT EARLY ON AND HOW COOL/WET TO MAKE IT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT AS
MODELS INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THAT TIME. MID/UPPER RIDGE
STARTS OUT CENTERED TO OUR EAST THEN STARTS ELONGATING/RETROGRESSING
ON SUNDAY, RETROGRESSION AND AMPLIFICATION CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THIS PERIOD WHICH LEAVES THE AREA OPEN TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS SEASON. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL/GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE ENSEMBLES NOT
ONLY SUPPORT THE PATTERN CHANGE BUT SUPPORT THE FURTHER WEST
AMPLIFICATION/POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST.

KEPT THE CRH_INIT GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. EARLY ON WITH THE RIDGE NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF US...MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.
PLUS A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.
AFTER THAT AREA WILL BE UNDER THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WHICH IS USUALLY WET/ACTIVE...WITH THE AREA
HAVING THE FRONT DRAPED ON TOP OF US OR WITH US IN A POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME. CONSIDERING THAT THESE SUBTLE WAVES AND ANY MESOSCALE
INFLUENCE IMPOSSIBLE TO DIAGNOSE AT THIS TIME RANGE...FELT
COMFORTABLE IN LEAVING THOSE POPS. ALSO IT LOOKS MORE POSSIBLE NOW
THAT AREA COULD COOL INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH IS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE PATTERN.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT AS TO WHERE THIS FRONT
FINALLY ENDS UP. BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BOTH SITES.
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT VCTS AT BOTH SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEFINITE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED BEGINNING IN THE EVENING.
COULD DEFINITELY SEEM SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ENDS UP OVER EACH SITE BUT SINCE THIS FALLS IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD CHOSE TO NOT MENTION ANY LOWERING OF THE
VISIBILITY. UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THAT.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...007/BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

600 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE S 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KT BETWEEN 15-02Z.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

906 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
WITH THIS UPDATE. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. ONCE THIS
BAND GOES BY, IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO, EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO MID AFTERNOON. THEN ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. THE 3KM HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS MORNING, AND IT
SHOWS THE SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN MAINE WOODS 5-7 PM TODAY. THE HRRR IS SOMETIMES A BIT
SLOW WITH PRECIP, SO WHILE I FOLLOWED IT FOR MY POPS TODAY, I DID
BRING THINGS IN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN IT SHOWS. CAPES WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER SHOWERS TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPEICALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES POST WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER THAN THE
POPS AND SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS, NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND WILL ALSO
MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE THE HRRR TO TIME
PRECIPITATION THEN TRANSITION TO MODEL BLEND LATER IN MORNING.
WILL USE THE SREF FOR POPS. FOR WIND WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND
GMOS. THE GMOS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND THE
ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANED CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF BLENDED W/THE SREF FOR THE POPS CYCLE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOADED GMOS AND THEN BLENDED IN THE ECMWF TO FIT BETTER W/THE
PRECIP CHANCES AND SKY.

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

723 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND POP TIMING.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND WILL ALSO MENTION SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE THE HRRR TO TIME PRECIPITATION THEN
TRANSITION TO MODEL BLEND LATER IN MORNING. WILL USE THE SREF FOR
POPS. FOR WIND WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND GMOS. THE GMOS USED FOR
TEMPERATURE AND WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES.
FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANED CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF BLENDED W/THE SREF FOR THE POPS CYCLE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOADED GMOS AND THEN BLENDED IN THE ECMWF TO FIT BETTER W/THE
PRECIP CHANCES AND SKY.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1137 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AND HUMID THIS HOLIDAY AFTERNOON, UNTIL A
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS BLOWS THROUGH WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE
THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS THIS HOLIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS IDEA BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWING A
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF LAKE ERIE, AND SPC
GUIDANCE THAT HAS INCLUDED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NEW PHILADELPHIA-PITTSBURGH CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1 AND 3
PM, AND THEN MOVING SOUTH PAST THE I-70 AND I-68 CORRIDORS BY
EARLY EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THE I-80 CORRIDOR SEES DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER FROM OUTFLOW LIFT WITH THE ERIE LAKE SHORE STORMS. ALL
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH,
DUE TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS, AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO
BECOME SEVERE.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IF RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SO
FORECAST OF HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IS COMPLICATED. MADE BEST
JUDGMENT BASED ON OUR HUNCH OF WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

HEAT ADVISORIES MAINTAINED BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD COME SHORT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND BE NONE
FORECASTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG PROSPECTS WITH LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCES, BASED ON RAINFALL PATTERNS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT ON
THU. UL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. MID-LEVEL TEMPS THU, CLOSE TO
TODAY`S, SO EXPECT ANOTHER HOT ONE. EXPECT A DROP OFF IN THE SFC
TDS WITH THE LL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE,
TEMPS COULD RISE EVEN FURTHER WITH THE DRIER LL ATMOSPHERE.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FRIDAY, AND WEAK SFC HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF POPS FRIDAY.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING JUST A BIT.

WILL LIKELY BE ADDING HEAT ADVISORIES THIS PERIOD WITH LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY AND MAINTAIN
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST READINGS ARE CLOSE TO
HPC NUMBERS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING
WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE
TREND...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. TEMPO GROUPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW LOOKS TO BE STARTING AROUND 17Z AT
KFKL/KDUJ...BY 19Z FOR KPIT/KBVI/KAGC/KHLG/KLBE AND AROUND 21Z AT
KMGW. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS, PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS WHICH RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PRE-DAWN FOG TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR HAZE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED STORMS LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...NONE.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

716 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

IT TOOK UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT PERSISTENT...THOUGH WEAK LIFT
OVER A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CENTER OF THE MPX AREA HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. OF COURSE OUT OF CONVIENIENCE...A SMALL CLUSTER
HAS DECIDED TO SET UP SHOP RIGHT IN THE DEPARTURE GATES FOR
MSP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS WHAT
WEAK LLJ WE HAVE DIMINISHES. AFTER 15Z...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MORE
PRECIP UNTIL POSSIBLY TONIGHT...AS THE COMBINATION OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
MAY HELP SPUR SOME TSRA ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY
OVER TOWARD MSP. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH ON
IF/WHEN/WHERE ANY STORMS WOULD OCCUR TONIGHT...SO HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTION IN TAFS. AS FOR THAT COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED MORE OF AN
ECMWF TIMING FOR ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS A COUPLE
OF HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFSLAMP. SLOWER SEEMS LIKE A BETTER PLAY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM HERE ON SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL...THEN WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FG/HZ...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO POOL. AGAIN...GIVEN
ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS...PLAYED VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR THU MORNING RATHER
CONSERVATIVELY.

KMSP...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME OBSTRUCTIONS IN THE AREA OF THE
DEPARTURE GATES FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...BUT AFTER THAT...MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE UNTIL TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH DEEP
MIXING TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD 200 DEGREES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS. ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW...FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE CITIES...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WITH
IT GIVEN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG CAP. THOUGH
ANYTIME A FRONT COMES IN WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL
HAVE...ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN.

//OUTLOOK...
.THURSDAY...VFR. CHC SHOWER/TSTMS...MAINLY LATE. WINDS S 10-20KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

BAP/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

959 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPDATE IS OUT. WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO 700 MB AND
ELEVATED CAPE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING...GUSTY WINDS COULD
DEVELOP WITH ANY STORMS WHICH FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FCST TO POOL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
PARTS OF NCNTL NEB SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SO GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BEEN ADDED TO PARTS OF NCNTL
NEB THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

UPDATE...
A LOOK AT THE KLBF UA SOUNDING SHOWED A FCST HIGH NEAR 104 THIS
AFTN WITH MIXING TO 650 MB. THIS IS 50 MB HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
AND THAT SOUNDING FCST A HIGH OF 104 ALSO. WE REACHED 102 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS THE SOUNDING MAY BE OVER-FCSTING THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN.

MEANWHILE THE SUPER-ENSEMBLE TEMP FCST PROCEDURE SUGGESTED 103 FOR
A HIGH AT LBF WITH A RANGE OF MID 90S TO 106 IN THE RAP MODEL. THE
FCST FOLLOWS THE SUPER ENSEMBLE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SWRN SD. NOTE THAT NO
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE A FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NCNTL NEB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

AVIATION...

UNRESTRICTED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE USUAL RISK OF LIGHTNING AND STRONG DOWNBURST WIND...ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SANDHILLS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY
FORM SOUTH OF A VTN-MHN-AIA LINE. THE PROBABILITY IS 35 PERCENT OR
LOWER IN THE AREA...SO WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...THE CONTINUED HEAT...FIRE WEATHER...AND TSTM
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA AS A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SREF/NAM
AGREE THAT THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT BY AFTERNOON FROM NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF ONEILL...TO AROUND NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL. SOUNDINGS
TO INDICATE THAT THE CAP/CIN SHOULD ERODE DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING AT LEAST A FEW
TSTMS WILL FIRE NEAR THE FRONT. AGAIN TODAY HOWEVER...THESE STORMS
WILL BE HIGH BASED AS LCL/S WILL BE AROUND 10000 FT AGL. SREF IS
HINTING AT SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE/DEW POINTS INVOF OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER...SO IF STORMS COULD TAP INTO THAT MOISTURE BASES COULD BE
LOWER. FOR NOW THOUGH...EXPECTING MOSTLY HIGH BASED STORMS. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THESE TYPES OF STORMS HAVE BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL GRASS FIRES IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE RAIN OCCURS
WITH THE STORMS. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
RATHER WEAK SHEAR NOTED...BUT DO HAVE SOME RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AS STATED EARLIER...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT
COULD REACH NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT THE HAIL THREAT IS LOW.
OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPS COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH...INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEXES UP INTO THE
100 DEGREE RANGE.

CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO
AS TODAY...WITH WEAKLY SHEARED HIGH BASED MULTICELL TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
CONTINUED HOT WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT SURGES BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS AT OR NEAR 100 DEGREES. RATHER BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AS
WELL.

PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO BEGIN SATURDAY...AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES WEST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR MORE ORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 80S BY THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
WIND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE
THRESHOLDS...VEGETATION WILL CONTINUE LOSING MOISTURE EACH DAY.
LIGHTNING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM IN THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THAT...ADDED TO EXTENSIVE USE OF FIREWORKS...FIRE HAS BEEN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EVEN AFTER
TODAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED LIGHNING AND
ERRATIC WIND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A FIRE MANAGEMENT PROBLEM.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-037-
038-059-070-071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

909 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.UPDATE...
A LOOK AT THE KLBF UA SOUNDING SHOWED A FCST HIGH NEAR 104 THIS
AFTN WITH MIXING TO 650 MB. THIS IS 50 MB HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
AND THAT SOUNDING FCST A HIGH OF 104 ALSO. WE REACHED 102 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS THE SOUNDING MAY BE OVER-FCSTING THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...THE CONTINUED HEAT...FIRE WEATHER...AND TSTM
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FRONT SURGES BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS AT OR NEAR 100 DEGREES. RATHER BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AS
WELL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1153 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPDATE DONE LATE THIS AM. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP
POPS ACROSS THE NW...AND FAR WEST LATER. SMALL AREA WHERE
ONE CAN GET THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTED EASTWARD ALONG
THE LAKESHORE AND KEEP THE SW FLOW...AND HIGHER CAPES. FURTHER
SOUTH...DEWPOINTS LOWER...BUT COMING UP...AND ALSO LESS HIGH
CLDS...SO NEW STORMS COULD STILL FORM LATER THIS AFT...EVEN
WITH CONDITIONS NOT AS GOOD AS FURTHER WEST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROF/VORTICITY AXIS
CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EXITS SE PA
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...LKLY ELEVATED...LOCATED
ON THE SW FLANK OF THE VORT AXIS NEAR PITTSBURGH SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALONG/EAST
OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SATL DATA SHOWS CLEARING TO THE NW OF
DUJ-ELM LINE WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF H5 TROF AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS QUIET EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER ALL BETS ARE OFF FOR LATER
IN THE DAY...AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE NERN FRINGE OF HOT CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE WITHIN BELT OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY THU...RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVE TSTM WILL
BE POSS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THESE TO A MINIMUM. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS
WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. MORE HOT WEATHER IN STORE FOR FRI
AND SAT...WITH READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL /AND HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100F IN THE SE/. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE A POSSIBILITY
IF DEWPOINTS INCH CLOSER TO 70F...BUT DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY IS THE DRIEST OF THE THREE
DAYS...WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MUGGY AND WARM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS MOVED WESTWARD BY AN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
BRING A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO SLOWLY SAG OVER THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR TSTMS
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN ACROSS PA
LAT SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY. DRY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM THE SUMMERTIME HEAT...DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BFD TAF FOR MCS MOVING SE. HISTORY OF
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

MINOR UPATES TO OTHER TAFS.

LOWER CLDS FINALLY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE NORTH.

EARLIER DISCSSION BELOW.

SCATTERED TSRA AND SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
PA THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES AT MDT AND LNS...THROUGH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ARE NOG REDUCING CONDITIONS AND SHOW END BY
12Z.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER BFD...WITH LIFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z. LIGHT VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL AROUND 15Z.

STORMS SHOULD REGENERATE MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THUR...AM FOG OTHERWISE VFR.

FRI...VFR.

SAT-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

913 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPATED PACKAGE AROUND 730 AM...AS FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUT OF THE FAR SE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MCS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND
UPDATE AS NEEDED. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY THU...RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVE TSTM WILL
BE POSS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THESE TO A MINIMUM. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS
WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. MORE HOT WEATHER IN STORE FOR FRI
AND SAT...WITH READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL /AND HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100F IN THE SE/. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE A POSSIBILITY
IF DEWPOINTS INCH CLOSER TO 70F...BUT DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY IS THE DRIEST OF THE THREE
DAYS...WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MUGGY AND WARM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPATED A FEW TAFS SO FAR. LOWER CLDS SLOW TO BREAK UP TO
THE NORTH.

ALSO DECIDED TO BRING SHOWERS INTO BFD A FEW HOURS SOONER...
LOOKS LIKE EAST SIDE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO COULD BRUSH BFD WITH AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS.

EARLIER DISCSSION BELOW.

SCATTERED TSRA AND SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
PA THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES AT MDT AND LNS...THROUGH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ARE NOG REDUCING CONDITIONS AND SHOW END BY
12Z.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER BFD...WITH LIFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z. LIGHT VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL AROUND 15Z.

STORMS SHOULD REGENERATE MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THUR...AM FOG OTHERWISE VFR.

FRI...VFR.

SAT-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

604 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF H5 TROF AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS QUIET EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER ALL BETS ARE OFF FOR LATER
IN THE DAY...AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE NERN FRINGE OF HOT CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE WITHIN BELT OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY THU...RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVE TSTM WILL
BE POSS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THESE TO A MINIMUM. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS
WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. MORE HOT WEATHER IN STORE FOR FRI
AND SAT...WITH READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL /AND HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100F IN THE SE/. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE A POSSIBILITY
IF DEWPOINTS INCH CLOSER TO 70F...BUT DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY IS THE DRIEST OF THE THREE
DAYS...WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MUGGY AND WARM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS MOVED WESTWARD BY AN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
BRING A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO SLOWLY SAG OVER THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR TSTMS
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN ACROSS PA
LAT SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY. DRY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM THE SUMMERTIME
HEAT...DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SCATTERED TSRA AND SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
PA THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES AT MDT AND LNS...THROUGH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ARE NOG REDUCING CONDITIONS AND SHOW END BY
12Z.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER BFD...WITH LIFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z. LIGHT VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL AROUND 15Z.

STORMS SHOULD REGENERATE MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY MOVES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THUR...AM FOG OTHERWISE VFR.

FRI...VFR.

SAT-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

636 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 115 THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
636 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

A WARM FRONT SITS JUST NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. PLENTY OF DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR
EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
ONLY CAVEAT IS HIGHER MOISTURE RIGHT AT THE SURFACE. THIS
MOISTURE/HAZE COULD BRING VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DOWN TO MVFR
BEFORE 15Z OR LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZE OF 5 TO 10 KTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

310 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

SFC DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO
COUNTY...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS TELLER COUNTY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SPARSE...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE VALUES UNDER
100 J/KG FOR THIS REGION. DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
QUANDARY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. SUCCESSIVE HIGH RES MODEL
RUNS...SUCH AS HRRR...AND RUC13 ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SWITCH
AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...AND
MODELS DO BRING SOME LOWER 40 DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION BY 01-02Z (7-8 PM). BUT BY THIS TIME...PEAK HEATING IS LOST
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH. HUNTING AROUND IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME FOR ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO HELP ENHANCE -TSRA
COVERAGE...MOST OBVIOUS WAVE IS BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ...AND IS
EASIEST TO TRACK IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5PV SURFACE...OR
IN THE UPPER LEVEL POT VORT FIELDS. THIS WAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS AZ/UT FOR TOMORROW. COULD BE A WEAK FEATURE BACK ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS REGION ENHANCING TSRA COVERAGE ACROSS SW CO...BUT HARD
TO SAY FOR CERTAIN. BOTTOM LINE IS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...THINK THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS DECREASED...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND POTENTIAL HAS
INCREASED. WILL WATCH LATEST RADAR TRENDS TOWARDS THE PACKAGE
ISSUANCE...AND WILL TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR IF TRENDS CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE.

MEANWHILE...WITH PRECIP WATERS OUT WEST RUNNING UP TO 140 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR
LOCALIZED RUN-OFF PROBLEMS.

CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SO WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER POPS
EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR UNTIL 06Z...THEN TAPER IT BACK DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OUT WEST
UNDER THE MONSOON PLUME.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD BACK IN ACROSS ALL OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...PUSHING BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG LEADING EDGE OF PV LOBE...CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS WRN TX...WHICH DECREASES PRECIP WATERS SOME FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND SE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...THOUGH WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
AFTERNOON WINDS...RHS MAY BE APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW IT
REMAINS A LITTLE TOO MOIST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
MEANWHILE...MTN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OUT THAT WAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD H5 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT GRADUALLY RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF HOLDING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ECMWF ALSO NOT AS FAST BRINGING SURFACE FRONT INTO THE CWA
AND FRONT APPEARS TO WOBBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING WELL SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL ON THE PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY WITH THIS
SOLUTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FOR THIS FORECAST...I HAVE CUT BACK POPS ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THIRTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES IN PUEBLO...WE ARE READY FOR A BREAK IN THE VERY WARM TEMPS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP BRING THAT STREAK TO AN END. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100 ON THE PLAINS...MID 80S IN THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S
ON THE PLAINS...AND 50S AND 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
THE WALDO CANYON BURN AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WHEN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SETS UP AT THE
SURFACE COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE...PERHAPS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. STARK

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE -TSRA AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR NOW. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BE GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS IN THE 20-40 KT RANGE IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN GET GOING. KALS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA HITTING THE TAF SITE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL UPDATE
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. -TSRA CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
02Z...THOUGH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MTS AND FAR EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE KALS TAF SITE...THOUGH LOOKS LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KPUB AND
KCOS TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PUEBLO CO

1140 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

.UPDATE...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A LITTLE DRIER
THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. IT APPEARS HRRR MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE
ON THIS..AND IT HAS INDICATED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION ALL ALONG. THIS LEADS TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR.
WITH DRY SFC DEW POINTS...THIS SHOULD LIMIT CAPES TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OR LESS. OF NOTE HOWEVER...WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST...PRECIP WATERS ARE RUNNING FROM 100-140
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. GIVEN THAT
LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCAR RECEIVED .5 TO .8 OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY...STILL CAN`T RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
ALONG THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. -KT

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CERTAINTY THAT -TSRA WILL AFFECT TAF SITES
IS STILL LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED A
VRB20G35KT FOR KCOS AND KPUB TO REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE...IF -TSRA DOES AFFECT TAF SITES...CIGS/VIS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS OVER THE
KALS TAF SITE...SO DON`T THINK THAT GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE
AS HIGH. -KT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...

CURRENTLY...

MOISTURE PLUME IS WELL DEFINED ACROSS THE SW CONUS. PWATS AT 00Z
WERE RUNNING FROM 100 TO 150% OF NORMAL ACROSS THE SW REGION. DWPTS
AT THIS HOUR...2 AM...WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S IN THE MTNS. 3H PRESS CHANGE CHART WAS SHOWING A
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WY EXTENDING INTO THE W DAKOTAS.

INFORMATION REGARDING THE FLOOD WATCH...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WALDO BURN SCAR FOR
TODAY. THIS WATCH GOES INTO AFFECT AT NOON AND LAST UNTIL 8 PM MDT.
THE WATCH INCLUDE ZONE 81 AND ZONE 85. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
ACTUAL BURN SCAR IS COMPLETELY WITHIN ZONE 81...BUT ANY FLOOD WAVE
THAT DEVELOPS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF ZONE 85.
OBSERVATIONS FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED 0.80" OF RAIN FELL AT THE
THOMPSON RAWS (SE OF WOODLAND PARK ON HIWAY 24)...RAMPART HAD
0.45"...WHILE WEST MONUMENT HAS 0.22". CAVE OF THE WINDS HAD 0.11".
RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ABOUT 125-150% FROM OBSERVED VALUES. A REVIEW
OF INCIWEB.ORG DID NOT MENTION ANY INFORMATION REGARDING IF FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAINFALL.

IF FLASH FLOODING WERE TO OCCUR TODAY...THE POPULATED AREAS WHICH
COULD BE HEAVILY IMPACTED INCLUDE HIGHWAY 24 FROM AROUND CASCADE TO
I-25...AND THE WESTERN SIDE OF OLD COLORADO CITY...THE CAMP CREEK
DRAINAGE (WEST COLORADO SPRINGS).

PLEASE NOTE THAT CAMP CREEK RUNS DIRECTLY DOWN THE CENTER OF NORTH
31ST STREET IN OLD COLORADO CITY...WHILE FOUNTAIN CREEK RUNS
DIRECTLY THROUGH DOWNTOWN MANITOU SPRINGS.

TODAY...

BOUNDARY DISCUSSED ABOVE SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY
18Z TODAY...12 NOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS
OUTFLOW DOMINANT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...AND THE HIRES MODEL
DATA DOES NOT SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING WITH THE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION UP TO 700 MB. WIND FLOW
WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT (ALBEIT LIGHT) THROUGH 500 MB.
WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LESSER T/TD SPREADS...THE STORMS WILL HAVE
LESS OF A TENDENCY TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TRRN. LIKEWISE...HEAVIER
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN SCAR TODAY.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...SHOWER AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY. SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BULLS EYE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...SO THE CHALK
BLUFFS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG A TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
BURLINGTON CO TO NEAR LA JUNTA CO.

TONIGHT...

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIE
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. PRECIP WILL THEN DECREASE
LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE...AND ISOLD PRECIP WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. /34

LONG TERM...

(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

..MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WITH
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODEL ANALYSIS OF
PWAT INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL EXPAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING AT LEAST MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER THE THUNDERSTORMS. BARRIER PARALLEL FLOW
WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
EXPECTED OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
AREAS WEST OF I-25 WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUST
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
OVER THE WALDO CANYON FIRE BURN SCAR REMAINS ELEVATED AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS COLORADO INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW
WEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STILL EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOWEVER THE QPF
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN THOSE SEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO UTAH WHERE IT
IS FORECAST TO STALL ON MONDAY. A STRONG DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MILD WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE PLAINS.
STAY TUNED AS WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A MORE WET PATTERN FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 88

AVIATION...

WITH THE MONSOON PLUME OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE 3 TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH WINDS GUSTS TO 35KNT POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-085.

31/40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

502 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...PRECEDED BY A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HEAT AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FIRE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT EXITS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION FINALLY BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AS A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS OVERCOME BY DAYTIME
HEATING. CURRENT THINKING IT THAT COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH PROGRESSES SE ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND USHER IN A
DRIER AIR MASS TOWARD MORNING.

AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSES TO THE NE TONIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT THE
CONVECTION FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME
CONSOLIDATION OF THESE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH 00Z...DROPPING A LINE ACROSS THE NYC
METRO. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...BUT SEEMS LIKE AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

A VERY MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP ACROSS NYC METRO AND
PORTIONS OF NE NJ THROUGH 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL SEND A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN THE CASE OF COASTAL
LOCATIONS...IT ACTUALLY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY AT ODDS WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE COAST OF THE NOVA SCOTIA THU INTO THU NIGHT.
THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER...SENDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IN EITHER CASE...SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE AIR MASS WILL
ALSO BE NOTICEABLY DRIER WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS PRODUCES HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO IF
NOT LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. THUS...THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR NYC HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THU.

A DEEP-LAYERED NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THU AND THU
NIGHT. LOW THU NIGHT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS .

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER FRI. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL HIGH TEMPS. THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE MAJOR SOLNS.
SUPPRESSION OF HEIGHTS S OF THE MARITIMES SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
FACTOR. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO THE WARMER 00Z ECMWF
AND 12Z GFS DATA DUE TO BETTER GLOBAL MODELING.

NAM CONTINUES AS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOT WITH RAW
DATA YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 100 NERN NJ. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
WARMER GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS. ALL MODELS BRING CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTN AND EVE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. IF THE
ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SVR CHANCES.

THE FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND DOESN/T PASS TIL SUN AFTN/EVE. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS AND BOOSTED TEMPS
TOWARDS THE HIGH END GFS ENSEMBLE DATA WITH RESIDUAL LLVL HOT AIR
TRAPPED IN THE REGION.

IT APPEARS THINGS SETTLE DOWN MON AND BEYOND AS THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED S OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPS...AND THE FCST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CITY TERMINALS...PRODUCING A
SWLY FLOW TO THE EAST...AND A WLY TO WNWLY FLOW TO THE WEST.

THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO TO SCT TSTORM THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS
OF IMPACT...HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING IN TAFS. BEST CHC FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
MAKING IT TO KLGA BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY TSTORM LATE
THIS AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.MON...VFR.

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY 1 TO 2
FT THE NEXT 36 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT VALUES AT BUOYS AND THOSE
UPSTREAM.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS FRI-TUE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SVR...SAT AFTN AND NGT.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS SUN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE WILL BE LOWER BY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF A FOOT FROM LAST
NIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

407 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

A VERY MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP ACROSS NYC METRO AND
PORTIONS OF NE NJ THROUGH 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A DEEP-LAYERED NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THU AND THU
NIGHT. LOW THU NIGHT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS .

IT APPEARS THINGS SETTLE DOWN MON AND BEYOND AS THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED S OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPS...AND THE FCST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE CITY TERMINALS...PRODUCING
A SWLY FLOW TO THE EAST...AND A WLY TO WNWLY FLOW TO THE WEST.
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE COASTAL
TAF SITES. THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT KJFK AND KISP WILL KEEP WINDS
MORE SLY FOR THE AFTN.

THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO TO SCT TSTORM LATE THIS AFTN
AFTER 20Z. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF IMPACT...HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING IN TAFS. BEST
CHC FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE CITY AND NE NJ.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS PSBL THRU 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS PSBL THRU 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY TSTORM LATE
THIS AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.MON...VFR.

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

358 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY BUT VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL BACK ACROSS ONTARIO. TEMPS ACROSS
THE FA WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF A
FORCING OR LIFTING MECHANISM...COUPLED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 600-700 HPA
/EVIDENT ON THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING/...SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS. WE WILL MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS ON THE RISE TO 1.25-1.50". THE LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CELLS AROUND 22Z WITH ALL
OF THE CONVECTION OVER BY 04Z.

FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY
12Z THU. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF SUN ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND START TO BREAKDOWN AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

EXPECT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME UPPER
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE POPULATED MOST FIELDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF 12Z/04 GMOS AND
12Z/04 HPC MOS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST 12Z/04 DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT AT A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD DURING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER FROPA...WITH LESS CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC MAY SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
FROPA...SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. HAVE INDICATED MAX TEMPS OF 85-90 IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT
FOR 90-95 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGIONS...WITH UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. FOR SAT NT...WE EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...DECREASING FROM N TO S OVERNIGHT. FOR MINS...EXPECT
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. IT MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER...GENERALLY MID
60S...ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A
PERSISTENT W/NW MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES...DEFLECTING MUCH OF THE HEAT AND
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS MOISTURE...WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. WE HAVE THEREFORE INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO MAX TEMPS OF 80-85 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC FOR
THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL
BE IN A WARM SECTOR...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE
THRU THE AREA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND A
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...GENERALLY BTWN 21Z-03Z. HAVE
INCLUDED A VCSH AT KGFL AROUND 00Z...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE IS SMALL
IN TERMS OF ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WILL KEEP IT OUT
OF THE TAFS. A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP WILL ALSO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE SKIES WILL CLEAR...BUT DEEPER
MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL DAYBREAK THU. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG TO FORM AT
KGFL/KPSF/KPOU WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHC FOR IFR MIST
IN THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME WILL BE AT KGFL/KPOU.

THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FROM THE N/NW AT
AROUND 10 KTS. ANY MIST OR FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THEREAFTER.
A FEW-SCT FAIR CUMULUS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST-NORTHWEST AT 7-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND INCREASE FROM THE N/NW AT
AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 12Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG/BR.
FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY BUT VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THURSDAY...RISE TO 85 TO 100
PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT AGAIN FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING WILL BE SPOTTY AS IT WILL FALL FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

158 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL BACK ACROSS ONTARIO. TEMPS ACROSS
THE FA WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF A FORCING OR
LIFTING MECHANISM...COUPLED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 600-700 HPA /EVIDENT ON THE 12Z
KALB SOUNDING/...SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS. WE WILL MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS ON
THE RISE TO 1.25-1.50". THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CELLS AROUND 22Z WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTION
OVER BY 03Z.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACH +20 DEG CELSIUS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL IT WONT BE VERY HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. VARIOUS SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING AT LEAST LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS DEPICTS MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GGEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING A MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT. WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY COULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE INDICATED LOW
CHANCE POPS.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC FOR
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG/BR.
FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 40 TO 55
PERCENT TODAY...AND RISE TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

502 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
445 PM CDT

FORECAST FOCUS SQUARELY ON CONTINUATION OF INTENSE HEAT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 PM CDT FRIDAY.

AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO 95 TO 102 ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX NUMBERS UP TO 103 TO 108. NORTHEASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE 850KPA THERMAL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY IS TO BE SUPPRESSED A
BIT TO THE S ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL FOR THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN ONTARIO
GETS FLATTENED BY THE UPPER LOW TRACKING E OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON THU THAT ARE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE
TODAY/S...AND THEN FOR FRI AN ADDITIONAL DEG HIGHER OVER THU AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN MARGINALLY INLAND
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SO ANY RELIEF WILL
BE VERY LIMITED AND SHORT LIVED AS LIGHT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHES
THE HOT AIR RIGHT BACK OUT OVER THE SHORE LINE BY LATER THU
EVENING.

TIMING OF COOL FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE DURING FRI COMPLICATES THINGS
A BIT BUT FEEL THAT THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN IL UNTIL
VERY LATE FRI OR MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT. WEAK W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW DURING FRI WILL LIKELY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND BUT
NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SO
FRI WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FA WITH THE FAR NE CORNER OF IL LIKELY THE ONLY PART OF THE FA TO
GET ANY REAL RELIEF UNTIL THE ACTUAL COOL FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA.

WITH MAX TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THU AND
FRI THE LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS BACK UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S PER GUIDANCE WILL KEEP HI NUMBERS UP IN THE 105-115 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT
INDEX NUMBERS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 75 TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES
SURROUNDING COOK WHICH HAS IT/S OWN SET FOR THE CITY WILL BE
REACHED SO ADVISORY EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY RESULT IN LARGE VALUES OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
BUT LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND MID-UPPER DISTURBANCES LACKING THUS ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED TS IF ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT
THE RIGHT TIME AT A PARTICULAR SPOT. THUS...POP NUMBERS TOO LOW
FOR ANY MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL FRI NIGHT WITH THE
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN IL. MODELS NOT BULLISH WITH
PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER S SAT OR SUN SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING ALL OR PARTS OF THE FA FOR
SAT THROUGH MON UNTIL BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS SHOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN IL TAKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ON EITHER SIDE OF
IT OUT OF THE LOCAL FA.

TRS

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

RECORDS...

CHICAGO
WED JUL 4 MAX 102 1911 MIN 80 1921
THU JUL 5 MAX 102 1911 MIN 82 1911
FRI JUL 6 MAX 99 1988 MIN 80 2977

ROCKFORD
WED JUL 4 MAX 101 1911 MIN 77 1977
THU JUL 5 MAX 100 1911 MIN 77 1911
FRI JUL 6 MAX 102 1936 MIN 73 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 ON JULY 24 1934...
AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 ON JULY 14 1936.

FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AND ALSO AUGUST 4TH
THROUGH 6TH OF 1947.

FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.

IZZI/TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* NONE. BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A LARGE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT W TO SW WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR TODAY...BUT GUSTS
HAVE DEVELOPED AT ORD AND MDW. BASED ON OBS AND CU
DEVELOPMENT...KEPT WIND GUSTS CONFINED TO ORD AND MDW...BUT MAY
SEE A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS AT GYY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU
IS DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NE IL AND NW IN. MORE INTENSE CU
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE FOUND EAST OF VPZ AND IN SOUTHERN IROQUOIS AND
FORD COUNTIES. EXPECTING FEW TO SCT CU TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. CU BASES MAY BE LOWER THAN INDICATED...IN
THE 050-070 RANGE...BUT VFR EITHER WAY.

EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKESHORE
AROUND 00Z AND REMAIN MORE OR LESS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
WHILE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT AFFECT ORD/MDW WINDS...MAY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM ALONG IT. THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES VERY LITTLE CIN AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ANY FORCING FEATURE
SUCH AS THE LAKE BREEZE COULD LEAD TO A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS IS NORTHWEST...THEREFORE GOING WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR ORD. HOWEVER...IF THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES FARTHER
INLAND THAN EXPECTED...TS MAY FORM NEAR ORD/MDW.

WINDS AND CU DIMINISH AND WINDS BECOME SW TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WEST WINDS...GUSTS DEVELOPING
IN THE LATE MORNING...AND SCT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS. BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
250 PM CDT

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIFTS TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SETTLING
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW BRIEFLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THEN STRENGTHENING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
GRADIENT AND PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR RESULTS IN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

446 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
445 PM CDT

FORECAST FOCUS SQUARELY ON CONTINUATION OF INTENSE HEAT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 PM CDT FRIDAY.

TRS

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

RECORDS...

CHICAGO
WED JUL 4 MAX 102 1911 MIN 80 1921
THU JUL 5 MAX 102 1911 MIN 82 1911
FRI JUL 6 MAX 99 1988 MIN 80 2977

ROCKFORD
WED JUL 4 MAX 101 1911 MIN 77 1977
THU JUL 5 MAX 100 1911 MIN 77 1911
FRI JUL 6 MAX 102 1936 MIN 73 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 ON JULY 24 1934...
AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 ON JULY 14 1936.

FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AND ALSO AUGUST 4TH
THROUGH 6TH OF 1947.

FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.

IZZI/TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WINDS AND CU DIMINISH AND WINDS BECOME SW TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WEST WINDS...GUSTS DEVELOPING
IN THE LATE MORNING...AND SCT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
250 PM CDT

RATZER

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

251 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1038 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR REST OF TODAY...

ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS TO OFFICIAL FORECAST GRID SET MADE BASED ON
NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON
DERIVED TEXT PRODUCTS. SO...CONTINUED VERY HOT AND HUMID.

TRS

//PREV DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK REVOLVES AROUND DEW POINTS AND HOW MUCH
PERSPIRING CORN CAN COMPENSATE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING. ADMITTEDLY...OUR SKILL AT DEW POINT FORECASTING IS NOT ALL
THAT HIGH WITH MEAN ABSOLUTE ERRORS OF 3-4F FOR 24 HOUR DEW POINT
FORECASTS...WHICH LEAVES OPEN A GOOD 6-8F SIZED RANGE OF POSSIBILITY
FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WHICH HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HEAT
INDICES. BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINT FORECASTS HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110F ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTER SPOTS GETTING A BIT ABOVE 110F. ITS
WORTH NOTING A 3-4F ERROR IN DEW POINTS WOULD CORRESPOND TO ABOUT A
5F ERROR IN FORE CASTED HEAT INDICES.

CONSIDERING EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN DEPTH ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS HEAT
INDICES FELL SHORT OF THE 105F ADVISORY THRESHOLD THE PAST 2 DAYS
MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA FOR A HEAT WARNING.
IF DEW POINTS STAY UP MORE THAN FORECAST AND HEAT INDICES GET ABOVE
110F THIS AFTERNOON THEN DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO THINK AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION FOR NOW. FOR COOK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO WHERE
WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND POPULATION
DENSITY/SOCIOECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL BE UPGRADING TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL LIKELY MEET 2 AND 3 DAY CRITERIA
AND COULD EVEN MEET THE 1 DAY WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DOES LEAVE US AS AN ISLAND
SURROUNDED BY WARNINGS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT DEW POINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND WE NOT EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON LET
ALONE WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO...AN ADVISORY OUTLYING AREAS AND
WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY WILL FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO DUE TO THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. NOT ONLY WILL DAYTIME TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEARLY 20F
HIGHER ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND DANGER OF THE HEAT WAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENTED BY THE LAKE. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHILE GFS/GEM/WRF-NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED FROPA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. TOOK
A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW WITH FROPA STARTING NEAR UGN AROUND
18Z BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST FARTHER INLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY...DEW POINT
POOLING MAY OFFSET ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS AND RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES EVEN HIGHER THAN THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMP/HEAT INDEX
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS GOING TO HINGE HEAVILY ON FROPA TIMING...ANY
SPEEDING UP OF FROPA COULD RESULT IN TEMPS BEING COOLER AND POSSIBLY
AN EARLIER ENDING TO THE HEAT HEADLINES.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AND ERASES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE CERTAINLY ARE NOT PLUSES FOR THE T-STORM POTENTIAL AND
THINK CHANCES MAY EVEN BE A BIT LOWER THAN 20%...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (ML CAPES LIKELY OVER 5000 J/KG) AND 0-8KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 40KT THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
VERY HIGH CONTINGENT ON A STORM DEVELOPING. GIVEN THIS FELT IT WAS
BEST TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING 21-03Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM
GOING UP ON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING FURTHER AND NO APPARENT TRIGGER...PLUS WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-ACCESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WINDS AND CU DIMINISH AND WINDS BECOME SW TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WEST WINDS...GUSTS DEVELOPING
IN THE LATE MORNING...AND SCT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
250 PM CDT

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

246 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1038 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR REST OF TODAY...

ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS TO OFFICIAL FORECAST GRID SET MADE BASED ON
NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON
DERIVED TEXT PRODUCTS. SO...CONTINUED VERY HOT AND HUMID.

TRS

//PREV DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK REVOLVES AROUND DEW POINTS AND HOW MUCH
PERSPIRING CORN CAN COMPENSATE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING. ADMITTEDLY...OUR SKILL AT DEW POINT FORECASTING IS NOT ALL
THAT HIGH WITH MEAN ABSOLUTE ERRORS OF 3-4F FOR 24 HOUR DEW POINT
FORECASTS...WHICH LEAVES OPEN A GOOD 6-8F SIZED RANGE OF POSSIBILITY
FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WHICH HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HEAT
INDICES. BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINT FORECASTS HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110F ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTER SPOTS GETTING A BIT ABOVE 110F. ITS
WORTH NOTING A 3-4F ERROR IN DEW POINTS WOULD CORRESPOND TO ABOUT A
5F ERROR IN FORE CASTED HEAT INDICES.

CONSIDERING EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN DEPTH ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS HEAT
INDICES FELL SHORT OF THE 105F ADVISORY THRESHOLD THE PAST 2 DAYS
MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA FOR A HEAT WARNING.
IF DEW POINTS STAY UP MORE THAN FORECAST AND HEAT INDICES GET ABOVE
110F THIS AFTERNOON THEN DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO THINK AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION FOR NOW. FOR COOK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO WHERE
WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND POPULATION
DENSITY/SOCIOECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL BE UPGRADING TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL LIKELY MEET 2 AND 3 DAY CRITERIA
AND COULD EVEN MEET THE 1 DAY WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DOES LEAVE US AS AN ISLAND
SURROUNDED BY WARNINGS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT DEW POINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND WE NOT EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON LET
ALONE WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO...AN ADVISORY OUTLYING AREAS AND
WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY WILL FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO DUE TO THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. NOT ONLY WILL DAYTIME TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEARLY 20F
HIGHER ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND DANGER OF THE HEAT WAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENTED BY THE LAKE. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHILE GFS/GEM/WRF-NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED FROPA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. TOOK
A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW WITH FROPA STARTING NEAR UGN AROUND
18Z BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST FARTHER INLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY...DEW POINT
POOLING MAY OFFSET ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS AND RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES EVEN HIGHER THAN THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMP/HEAT INDEX
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS GOING TO HINGE HEAVILY ON FROPA TIMING...ANY
SPEEDING UP OF FROPA COULD RESULT IN TEMPS BEING COOLER AND POSSIBLY
AN EARLIER ENDING TO THE HEAT HEADLINES.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AND ERASES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE CERTAINLY ARE NOT PLUSES FOR THE T-STORM POTENTIAL AND
THINK CHANCES MAY EVEN BE A BIT LOWER THAN 20%...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (ML CAPES LIKELY OVER 5000 J/KG) AND 0-8KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 40KT THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
VERY HIGH CONTINGENT ON A STORM DEVELOPING. GIVEN THIS FELT IT WAS
BEST TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING 21-03Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM
GOING UP ON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING FURTHER AND NO APPARENT TRIGGER...PLUS WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-ACCESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WINDS AND CU DIMINISH AND WINDS BECOME SW TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WEST WINDS...GUSTS DEVELOPING
IN THE LATE MORNING...AND SCT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1256 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1038 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR REST OF TODAY...

ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS TO OFFICIAL FORECAST GRID SET MADE BASED ON
NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON
DERIVED TEXT PRODUCTS. SO...CONTINUED VERY HOT AND HUMID.

TRS

//PREV DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK REVOLVES AROUND DEW POINTS AND HOW MUCH
PERSPIRING CORN CAN COMPENSATE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING. ADMITTEDLY...OUR SKILL AT DEW POINT FORECASTING IS NOT ALL
THAT HIGH WITH MEAN ABSOLUTE ERRORS OF 3-4F FOR 24 HOUR DEW POINT
FORECASTS...WHICH LEAVES OPEN A GOOD 6-8F SIZED RANGE OF POSSIBILITY
FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WHICH HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HEAT
INDICES. BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINT FORECASTS HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110F ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTER SPOTS GETTING A BIT ABOVE 110F. ITS
WORTH NOTING A 3-4F ERROR IN DEW POINTS WOULD CORRESPOND TO ABOUT A
5F ERROR IN FORE CASTED HEAT INDICES.

CONSIDERING EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN DEPTH ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS HEAT
INDICES FELL SHORT OF THE 105F ADVISORY THRESHOLD THE PAST 2 DAYS
MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA FOR A HEAT WARNING.
IF DEW POINTS STAY UP MORE THAN FORECAST AND HEAT INDICES GET ABOVE
110F THIS AFTERNOON THEN DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO THINK AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION FOR NOW. FOR COOK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO WHERE
WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND POPULATION
DENSITY/SOCIOECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL BE UPGRADING TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL LIKELY MEET 2 AND 3 DAY CRITERIA
AND COULD EVEN MEET THE 1 DAY WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DOES LEAVE US AS AN ISLAND
SURROUNDED BY WARNINGS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT DEW POINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND WE NOT EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON LET
ALONE WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO...AN ADVISORY OUTLYING AREAS AND
WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY WILL FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO DUE TO THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. NOT ONLY WILL DAYTIME TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEARLY 20F
HIGHER ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND DANGER OF THE HEAT WAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENTED BY THE LAKE. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHILE GFS/GEM/WRF-NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED FROPA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. TOOK
A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW WITH FROPA STARTING NEAR UGN AROUND
18Z BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST FARTHER INLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY...DEW POINT
POOLING MAY OFFSET ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS AND RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES EVEN HIGHER THAN THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMP/HEAT INDEX
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS GOING TO HINGE HEAVILY ON FROPA TIMING...ANY
SPEEDING UP OF FROPA COULD RESULT IN TEMPS BEING COOLER AND POSSIBLY
AN EARLIER ENDING TO THE HEAT HEADLINES.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AND ERASES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE CERTAINLY ARE NOT PLUSES FOR THE T-STORM POTENTIAL AND
THINK CHANCES MAY EVEN BE A BIT LOWER THAN 20%...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (ML CAPES LIKELY OVER 5000 J/KG) AND 0-8KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 40KT THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
VERY HIGH CONTINGENT ON A STORM DEVELOPING. GIVEN THIS FELT IT WAS
BEST TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING 21-03Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM
GOING UP ON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING FURTHER AND NO APPARENT TRIGGER...PLUS WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-ACCESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WINDS AND CU DIMINISH AND WINDS BECOME SW TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WEST WINDS...GUSTS DEVELOPING
IN THE LATE MORNING...AND SCT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG
HEIGHTS...CU MAY BE MORE 050-070.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1109 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
1038 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR REST OF TODAY...

ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS TO OFFICIAL FORECAST GRID SET MADE BASED ON
NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON
DERIVED TEXT PRODUCTS. SO...CONTINUED VERY HOT AND HUMID.

TRS

//PREV DISCUSSION...
356 AM CDT

GOING TO CALL A QUICK AUDIBLE BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP/PUBLISHING
GRIDS...

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HEAT AND
RESULTANT HEADLINE DECISIONS...WITH A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK REVOLVES AROUND DEW POINTS AND HOW MUCH
PERSPIRING CORN CAN COMPENSATE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING. ADMITTEDLY...OUR SKILL AT DEW POINT FORECASTING IS NOT ALL
THAT HIGH WITH MEAN ABSOLUTE ERRORS OF 3-4F FOR 24 HOUR DEW POINT
FORECASTS...WHICH LEAVES OPEN A GOOD 6-8F SIZED RANGE OF POSSIBILITY
FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WHICH HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HEAT
INDICES. BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINT FORECASTS HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110F ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTER SPOTS GETTING A BIT ABOVE 110F. ITS
WORTH NOTING A 3-4F ERROR IN DEW POINTS WOULD CORRESPOND TO ABOUT A
5F ERROR IN FORE CASTED HEAT INDICES.

CONSIDERING EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN DEPTH ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS HEAT
INDICES FELL SHORT OF THE 105F ADVISORY THRESHOLD THE PAST 2 DAYS
MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA FOR A HEAT WARNING.
IF DEW POINTS STAY UP MORE THAN FORECAST AND HEAT INDICES GET ABOVE
110F THIS AFTERNOON THEN DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO THINK AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION FOR NOW. FOR COOK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO WHERE
WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND POPULATION
DENSITY/SOCIOECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL BE UPGRADING TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE WILL LIKELY MEET 2 AND 3 DAY CRITERIA
AND COULD EVEN MEET THE 1 DAY WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DOES LEAVE US AS AN ISLAND
SURROUNDED BY WARNINGS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT DEW POINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND WE NOT EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON LET
ALONE WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO...AN ADVISORY OUTLYING AREAS AND
WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY WILL FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO DUE TO THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. NOT ONLY WILL DAYTIME TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER BUT NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEARLY 20F
HIGHER ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AND DANGER OF THE HEAT WAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENTED BY THE LAKE. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHILE GFS/GEM/WRF-NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED FROPA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE. TOOK
A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW WITH FROPA STARTING NEAR UGN AROUND
18Z BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST FARTHER INLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY...DEW POINT
POOLING MAY OFFSET ANY SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPS AND RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES EVEN HIGHER THAN THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMP/HEAT INDEX
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS GOING TO HINGE HEAVILY ON FROPA TIMING...ANY
SPEEDING UP OF FROPA COULD RESULT IN TEMPS BEING COOLER AND POSSIBLY
AN EARLIER ENDING TO THE HEAT HEADLINES.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AND ERASES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE CERTAINLY ARE NOT PLUSES FOR THE T-STORM POTENTIAL AND
THINK CHANCES MAY EVEN BE A BIT LOWER THAN 20%...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (ML CAPES LIKELY OVER 5000 J/KG) AND 0-8KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 40KT THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
VERY HIGH CONTINGENT ON A STORM DEVELOPING. GIVEN THIS FELT IT WAS
BEST TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING 21-03Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM
GOING UP ON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS RISING FURTHER AND NO APPARENT TRIGGER...PLUS WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-ACCESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

IZZI

.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT

CHICAGO ROCKFORD

WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977

THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911

FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF ORD/MDW.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ014 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1145 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

THURSDAY NIGHT...PER THE REASONING ABOVE LOW POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR WEST.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE
TAFS WILL BE THE START TIME OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
HOW LONG THEY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST NAM SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL TIMING...SO HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY
TOWARD IT. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NEAR K2V5.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...LYING NEAR KSYF. AM ANTICIPATING THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE
EXPANDING INTO THE EVENING. AM THINKING THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR
KGLD TO SEE T-STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE SITE. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT
NORTH OF KGLD...THE SITE MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH DURING THE NIGHT THE STORM
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FOR KGLD.

KMCK FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR STORM COVERAGE...WITH THE BEST
SHOT BEING DURING THE EVENING. THE FRONT REMAINS JUST EAST OF KMCK THROUGH
THE EVENING SO THE SITE MAY SEE STORMS LONGER THAN KGLD. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECLINE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...007/BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1217 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP IN THE 15G20 MPH RANGE THROUGH 03Z, THEN
THE WINDS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 10 MPH BY 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS, BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
IN THE 69F DEGREES (EXTREME SOUTHWEST AROUND ELKHART) TO AROUND 74F
DEGREES (NORTHEAST NEAR HAYS) RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS AT AROUND NINE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 100 72 99 72 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 98 71 96 70 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 99 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 103 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
P28 101 74 101 74 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...GERARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1230 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...THIS MORNING`S BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK, WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MAINE. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT MORE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AFTER MID AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHWESTERN MAINE, WHICH WILL HELP TO ALLOW MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO POP UP. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER
WITH THIS UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

900 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
WITH THIS UPDATE. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. ONCE THIS
BAND GOES BY, IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO, EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO MID AFTERNOON. THEN ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. THE 3KM HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS MORNING, AND IT
SHOWS THE SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN MAINE WOODS 5-7 PM TODAY. THE HRRR IS SOMETIMES A BIT
SLOW WITH PRECIP, SO WHILE I FOLLOWED IT FOR MY POPS TODAY, I DID
BRING THINGS IN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN IT SHOWS. CAPES WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGER SHOWERS TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPEICALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES POST WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER THAN THE
POPS AND SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS, NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEANED CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF BLENDED W/THE SREF FOR THE POPS CYCLE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOADED GMOS AND THEN BLENDED IN THE ECMWF TO FIT BETTER W/THE
PRECIP CHANCES AND SKY.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

331 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS HOLIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND,
LARGE HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS
HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES, UPWIND FROM CIRRUS-ANVIL-SHADED AREAS OVER NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA LEFTOVER FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS, PLUS NORTHERLY BREEZES OFF LAKE ERIE.

RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
INTO A BAND ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES WITHIN NEW PHILADELPHIA-
PITTSBURGH CORRIDORS, AND THEN MOVING SOUTH PAST THE I-70 AND
I-68 CORRIDORS BY EARLY EVENING.

ALL THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK
WITH, DUE TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS, AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
TO BECOME SEVERE.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IF RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SO
FORECAST OF HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IS COMPLICATED. MADE BEST
JUDGMENT BASED ON OUR HUNCH OF WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

HEAT ADVISORIES MAINTAINED BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD COME SHORT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND BE GONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG PROSPECTS WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES, BASED ON RAINFALL PATTERNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN SHRINKING SOUTH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS SHOWING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHRINKS SOUTH SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY BE
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

SO HAVE ADDED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, EXCEPT THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND I-80 CORRIDOR.
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE MENTIONED HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD THAT DEEP
RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THE
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND LOWERING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS A TROUGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE DRY OR WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. TEMPO GROUPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW LOOKS TO BE FOR
KPIT/KBVI/KAGC/KHLG/KLBE THROUGH 22Z AND FOR KMGW THROUGH 00Z. ASIDE
FROM THUNDERSTORMS, PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT AROUND 10
KTS TODAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021>023.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

212 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS THIS HOLIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPC GUIDANCE HAS NOW INCLUDED THE THE ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS
HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE OUTFLOW
OF PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS, PLUS
NORTHERLY BREEZES OFF LAKE ERIE.

RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
INTO A BAND ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES BETWEEN THE I-80 AND NEW
PHILADELPHIA-PITTSBURGH CORRIDORS BY 3 PM, AND THEN MOVING SOUTH
PAST THE I-70 AND I-68 CORRIDORS BY EARLY EVENING.

ALL THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK
WITH, DUE TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS, AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
TO BECOME SEVERE.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IF RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SO
FORECAST OF HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IS COMPLICATED. MADE BEST
JUDGMENT BASED ON OUR HUNCH OF WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

HEAT ADVISORIES MAINTAINED BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD COME SHORT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND BE GONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG PROSPECTS WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES, BASED ON RAINFALL PATTERNS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN SHRINKING SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD THAT DEEP
RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THE
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND LOWERING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS A TROUGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE DRY OR WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. TEMPS
THEN COOL TO AROUND NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. TEMPO
GROUPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW LOOKS TO BE
STARTING BY 19Z FOR KPIT/KBVI/KAGC/KHLG/KLBE AND AROUND 21Z AT
KMGW. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS, PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1240 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS THIS HOLIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPC GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS,
PLUS NORTHERLY BREEZES OFF LAKE ERIE, MAY HELP DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON.

RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS IT SHOWS
THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEW PHILADELPHIA-
PITTSBURGH CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEFORE 3 PM, AND THEN MOVING SOUTH PAST
THE I-70 AND I-68 CORRIDORS BY EARLY EVENING. ITS STILL POSSIBLE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SEES DEVELOPMENT EARLIER.

ALL THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK
WITH, DUE TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS, AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
TO BECOME SEVERE.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IF RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SO
FORECAST OF HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IS COMPLICATED. MADE BEST
JUDGMENT BASED ON OUR HUNCH OF WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

HEAT ADVISORIES MAINTAINED BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD COME SHORT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND BE GONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG PROSPECTS WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES, BASED ON RAINFALL PATTERNS.

AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE DRY OR WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. TEMPS
THEN COOL TO AROUND NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1245 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

VERY WARM MID LEVELS HAVE THUS FAR KEPT CONVECTION UNDER
CONTROL...BUT THERE PERSISTS AN E-W BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO WC WI ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S.
THEN ACROSS MN INTO WI. HRRR HAS GENERALLY BEEN HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT THAT IT WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIMINISHING
DIURNAL TREND DURING THE MORNING.

MAY SEE A FEW TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT IN N CWA AND
THEN THIS EVENING IN WC MN AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY IN WAKE OF COOL FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT AND THEN INTO WC WI/S MN ON THURSDAY.
PROGRESSED LOW POPS TSTMS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT. WILL BE
BORDERLINE HEAT WARNING IN CENTRAL MN FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME
COOLING AND BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT LEFT WARNING IN FOR NOW
ALONG WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

COUPLE OF AREAS TO WORRY ABOUT IN TERMS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...EXITING THE
TAF SITES AND INTO SOUTHERN MN AFTER 12Z THU. MODELS DO SUGGEST
FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. OTHER POTENTIAL
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY
GRADIENT OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE SOME TEMPO THUNDER
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND A PROB30 AT KEAU AND VC
AT KMSP FOR NOW. THIS SAGS SOUTH IN THE MORNING...WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND FRONT IN THE MORNING...BUT
DIDNT GO MVFR WITH THAT. OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND A BIT
GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THEN
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH FROPA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KMSP...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST
OR COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MN AND
RIDE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL TEND TO GO WITH THE
FORMER AND BEING IN VCTS AT 09Z FOR NOW. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY TO 18-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN BECOMING
MORE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND BECOMING NW-N WITH FROPA.

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

BAP/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

325 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR KOGA TO KTIF TO NEAR
KANW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE SLOW MOVING TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN
AND THIS EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HEAT BURSTS. THE HRRR INDICATES
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SUPPORTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
MERGE WITH ACTIVITY FCST TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH COLO AND INTO KS
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS MOTHER NATURE
HAS ITS OWN FIRE WORKS SHOW PLANNED THIS EVENING AND VERY DRY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING FOR ANYONE ATTENDING OUTDOOR EVENTS THIS EVENING.

THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 100S ONCE AGAIN. NORTH OF THE FRONT ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING NORTH AROUND
THE H500 MB RIDGE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
PRODUCING VERY WARM HIGHS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE NAM SUGGESTED
106 AT KONL AND THIS MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE MARK. FOR NOW
WILL FCST 104 AT KONL. NO PROBLEM WITH THE 102 FCST BY THE NAM AT
KLBF FOR FRIDAY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN...105 AT KLBF
SO FAR...LATER FCSTS MAY HAVE TO MARK UP HIGHS FRIDAY. THE NAM AND
ECM ARE VERY DRY WITH THIS FRONT AND THE FCST FOLLOWS THE DRIER
SOLNS. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CNTL MISSOURI IS
FCST BUILD SLOWLY WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER
UTAH BY MONDAY SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE
FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FCST AREA AND INTO KS FRIDAY FOR A SEMI PERMANENT COOL DOWN
LASTING SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SEVERAL KEY
INGREDIENTS COULD CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE RAIN. THEY ARE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW...LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT PRODUCING A WEAKER CAP
AND THE VERY UNCERTAIN POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE DAILY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECM AND
GFS SUGGESTED THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.

.AVIATION...
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH ACROSS SW TO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHILE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXPECT SOME
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED SHRA AT KLBF
HOWEVER WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER YET. DID WANT
TO MENTION THE -SHRA TO ALSO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS
WHICH ARE LIKELY WITH THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS.

.CLIMATE...
THIS IS THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW OF 100 PLUS TEMPERATURES AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS STREAK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD RIVAL THE GREAT HEAT WAVES OF 1934 (13 DAYS)...1935 (5
DAYS)...1936 (6 DAYS) AND 1955 (5 DAYS).

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

115 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPDATE IS OUT. WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO 700 MB AND
ELEVATED CAPE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING...GUSTY WINDS COULD
DEVELOP WITH ANY STORMS WHICH FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...THE CONTINUED HEAT...FIRE WEATHER...AND TSTM
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FRONT SURGES BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS AT OR NEAR 100 DEGREES. RATHER BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AS
WELL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-037- 038-059-070-071.

AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

311 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR JULY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY JUST SEEING SOME HIGHER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS FILTERING OUT SOME OF THE SUN AS THEY PASS OVERHEAD FROM
THE NORTH. OTHER CU DEVELOPING ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND
EXPECT SOME ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH TSTM ACTIVITY TO EXPECT.
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. CAPE AND MOST INDICES BECOMING LESS
IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON. PCP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME IT SHOWS A SPIKE IN
VALUES TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THERE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST INITIALLY
WITH THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INLAND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN COUNTIES FROM JUST WEST OF CWA LATER IN THE DAY. NAM
SHOWS IMPULSE IN MID TO UPPER FLOW REACHING OUR W-NW COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM...WHICH COINCIDES NICELY WITH HRRR FORECAST
FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN THE SAME
TIME. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTN WITH PIECE DROPPING S-SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...REACHING THE COAST SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY E-SE REMAINING SCT ACROSS INLAND CWA THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND SEA BREEZE EXPECT STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MAIN
POPS INLAND WITH ISO POPS ALONG COAST INTO TONIGHT AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. WITH STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW JUST
UNDER 10 MPH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TRACK TOWARD THE
COAST.

WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN THE MID
70S TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI AT 700-500 MB WILL EXPAND IN SIZE FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN
CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
TAKING PLACE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. THERMALLY THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AS WELL...WITH AN "INVERTED" THERMAL GRADIENT BOTH DAYS FAVORING
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. A THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS WILL TURN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY.
ADD IN A LARGE INLAND-TO-MARINE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT PRODUCING A
STRONG SEABREEZE AND THE BEACHES COULD BE LOOKING AT 20-25 MPH
WIND GUSTS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LOW ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE LARGE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS. LIFTED INDICES AS
LOW AS -8 AND CAPE VALUES 2000-3500 J/KG THURSDAY WILL MODERATE ONLY
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY DUE TO WARMER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE BUILDING RIDGE. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY FOCUS AROUND A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BOTH
DAYS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW BOTH
ARGUE FOR LOW POPS. OUR FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE VERY LOW GFS AND
NAM MOS 12-HR POPS (BOTH NO HIGHER THAN 10% UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT)
BUT IS LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LASTLY...WE`VE RAISED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES NEAR
INTERSTATE 95 ON THURSDAY WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 105.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE 103-104 HEAT INDICES
FORECAST INCLUDING WILMINGTON...WHITEVILLE...CONWAY AND KINGSTREE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AND MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL STRETCH EAST AS THIS RIDGE ELONGATES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPS TO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...POTENTIALLY
TOUCHING 100 IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE WE TEND TO BE CAPPED TO
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE LOW PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN WARM ALMOST
UNIFORMLY...AND INSTEAD OF GETTING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WE END
UP WITH A SHALLOW SUB-ADIABATIC LAYER BETWEEN 850-800MB. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL SQUELCH MOST ACTIVITY...AN ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY
STILL FIRE IN THE AFTN ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TSTMS...SO AGREE WITH
INHERITED SCHC...MOSTLY INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE WKND...TD/S WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY RAISE HEAT INDICES TO HEAT-ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F+)
BOTH SAT AND SUN.

BIG CHANGES OCCUR EARLY MONDAY AS A VORT-IMPULSE PUSHES SE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH ADVANCING DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS
IMPULSE COULD FIRE SOME CONVECTION EARLY MONDAY...BUT THE REAL
RAIN/TSTM CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY. AS THE 500MB TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTH...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES HELP DRIVE A TROUGH (FRONT
WITH NO REAL AIRMASS CHANGE) TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. AHEAD OF
THIS...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURS FROM THE GULF COAST...AND
PWATS RISE TO NEARLY 2.5 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP COLUMN SATURATION WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION...AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE AREA. WILL BUMP POP TO
HIGH CHC BOTH MON AND TUE...LOWERING BY WEDNESDAY AS BEST MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE HINDERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
EXPECT MEX NUMBERS ARE TOO HIGH SINCE Q12 VALUES ARE NOW WELL ABOVE
CLIMO EVEN ON DAY 6/7. SO EXPECT TEMPS AROUND CLIMO MON-WED...BUT
MAY END UP BEING BELOW DEPENDING ON OVERALL CLOUD/TSTM COVERAGE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP...BUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 650 MB MAY KEEP A CAP ON
ANY CONVECTION FOR A WHILE. A STRUNG OUT VORT MAX...WEAKLY EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR...WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS OFFSHORE. THE WRF HAS A RATHER
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO
RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN THE CAPE AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...ANY
LITTLE IMPULSE COULD KICK OFF SOME GOOD STORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SEA WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-DRIVEN
S TO SW WAVES OF 2-4 FEET RUNNING IN 5-6 SECONDS INTERVALS...AND
WEAKER BUT LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES OF 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS.
SPIKE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT UP TO 20 KTS IN OUTER WATERS MAY CAUSE
ISOLATED 5 FTERS OUT TOWARD FRYING PAN SHOALS. ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS
UPON US WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE RIDGING WEST ACROSS
FLORIDA...AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH STATIONARY ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY PRODUCES SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS...WITH THE SEABREEZE INCREASING
NEARSHORE SPEEDS TO 15-20 KNOTS FROM 2-8 PM BOTH DAYS. SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OFFSHORE WHILE AN ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY.
THIS KEEPS THE WATERS IN BETWEEN...WITH A PINCHED GRADIENT AND
CONTINUED SW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STAYING IN
PLACE...LONG EASTERLY FETCH BRINGS IN A DECENT 2-3FT/9SEC SE SWELL
EACH DAY...WHICH WILL BE TOPPED BY A 4-5FT/5SEC SW WIND WAVE. THESE
COMBINE TO PRODUCE 3-5 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ATTM NO
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO SCEC CRITERIA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH FUTURE UPDATES FOR
THIS POTENTIAL

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...RECENT PASSING OF THE OFFICIAL FULL MOON WILL
LEAD TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED AND FORECAST TO REACH NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CAPE FEAR IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON
FOR MINOR FLOODING. LEVELS MADE IT TO 5.6 YESTERDAY EVENING AND
EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR THIS EVENING AROUND TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS
LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL. FIREWORKS SHOW AT THE BATTLESHIP WILL DRAW
CROWDS...BUT RIGHT NOW AT WORSE WE COULD SEE SHALLOW ENCROACHMENT OF
WATER ON A FEW ROADS DOWNTOWN AND IT SHOULD COME AFTER THE FIREWORKS
DISPLAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

215 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BRINGING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS
FOR EARLY JULY.

BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH TSTM ACTIVITY TO EXPECT.
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. CAPE AND MOST INDICES BECOMING LESS
IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON. PCP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME IT SHOWS A SPIKE IN
VALUES TO OUR WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THERE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST INITIALLY
WITH THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INLAND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN COUNTIES FROM JUST WEST OF CWA LATER IN THE DAY. NAM
SHOWS IMPULSE IN MID TO UPPER FLOW REACHING OUR W-NW COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM....WHICH COINCIDES NICELY WITH HRRR FORECAST
FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN THE SAME
TIME. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTN WITH PIECE DROPPING S-SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...REACHING THE COAST SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY E-SE REMAINING SCT ACROSS INLAND CWA THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND SEA BREEZE EXPECT STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MAIN
POPS INLAND WITH ISO POPS ALONG COAST INTO TONIGHT AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. WITH STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW JUST
UNDER 10 MPH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TRACK TOWARD THE
COAST.

WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN THE MID
70S TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND EAST SIDE OF
5H RIDGE EARLY THU WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE 5H RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2K AND 3K
J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM. THE BIG ISSUE IS GOING TO
BE THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. EXCEPT FOR A MOIST LAYER FROM
800 TO 600 MB THE AIR MASS IS ON THE DRY SIDE. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE INHERITED 30-40 POP MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGHS SIDE
AND IN FACT MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DOWN. WILL TRIM BACK TO 30...OR LOW CHANCE FOR NOW.

FRI LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THU THOUGH THE 5H RIDGE DOES START TO
REASSERT ITSELF A LITTLE MORE. THIS RESULTS IN MORE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING...FURTHER INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY EXIT OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. INSTABILITY IS MORE OR LESS EQUAL TO THU BUT THE LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS
MOVING THE REMAINS OF A WASHED OUT COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH
MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE/LIFT...IF IT REACHES THE REGION.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE NAM WITH THIS FEATURE
AND DISSIPATES IT BEFORE IT HAS ANY IMPACT ON THE REGION. WILL TRIM
POP BACK FOR FRI BUT HOLD ONTO CHANCE WORDING AT THIS POINT.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE VERTICAL PROFILES EACH
DAY...INVERTED V...STRONGER STORMS EITHER DAY COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WIND. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID TO
UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...EASTWARD EXTENSION OF 5H RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE AND DEEP DRY AIR WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE PRESENCE OF A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE AND CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG SAT/SUN WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON...COVERED BY
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE.

PATTERN ALOFT EVOLVES MON AS LOBE OF POLAR VORTEX OVER EASTERN
CANADA STARTS TO EXPAND SOUTH...SUPPRESSING EASTERN EXTENSION OF
PLAINS RIDGE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS REPLACED BY DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW MON/TUE WITH THE 5H TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OFFSHORE. DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST MONSOON MOISTURE TOPPING THE 5H
PLAINS RIDGE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INHERITED POP RANGE FROM 30 TO
40 MON/TUE. SEE NO REASON NOT TO GO SOLID 40 AT THIS POINT WITH
FURTHER INCREASES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH HIGHS TRENDING DOWN MON/TUE UNDER
DECREASING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING FLOW OVER THE WATERS SOUTHEAST. FAIRLY LAX
GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...A
COMBINATION OF DOMINANT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND WEAK SOUTHEAST
SWELL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SAT INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT SUN IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT. SEAS
3 TO 4 FT SAT BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT SUN...A COMBINATION OF DOMINANT
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND WEAK SOUTHEAST SWELL.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE RECENT PASSING OF THE OFFICIAL FULL
MOON WILL KEEP H2O LEVELS ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN EVEN PRONE AREAS LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
FIREWORKS SHOW AT THE BATTLESHIP WILL DRAW CROWDS...BUT RIGHT NOW
AT WORSE WE COULD SEE SHALLOW ENCROACHMENT OF WATER ON A FEW ROADS
DOWNTOWN AT WORSE. NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ANTICIPATED WITH ASTRO-
TIDES TODAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/RGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1116 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ALL KINDS OF HEADACHES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WITH ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE HEAT HEADLINES. SFC LOW WAS
CENTERED NEAR JAMESTOWN...WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR IN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
HELPING TO FEED THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE STORMS STARTED OUT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BUT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DESPITE 700MB TEMPS INTO THE
MID TEENS C. EXPANDED HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCLUDED
SEVERE MENTION IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE WE HAVE THE WATCH. SO FAR
THE MORE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BELOW SEVERE...BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.

THE OTHER QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE HEAT HEADLINES. BY ALL
APPEARANCES A WEAK COND FRONT HAS ADVANCED TO A ROSEAU TO GRAND
FORKS TO CARRINGTON LINE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE OBS MAY BE
AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW RATHER THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL CWA...SO LOWERED HIGHS A BIT INTO THE MID 80S IN THAT
AREA. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITERIA IN
THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME POOLING OF
UPPER 70S DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW.
THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO PULL THE ADVISORY
IN THE NORTH IN CASE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SPIKE UP. WILL LEAVE
HEADLINES AS THEY ARE FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
START PULLING COUNTIES THEN.

.AVIATION...

KGFK AND KTVF HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY TSRA...BUT ALL OTHER TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BROUGHT
ON BY CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
NORTHERN SITES THIS MORNING...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAT AND
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CHANCES TODAY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED TIME FRAME. 500MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NW FLOW
ACROSS THE CWFA WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS A RESULT MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AFTER THE CHC IN THE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.

$$
JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

620 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE REGION BY
FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION NORTH OF LERI HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE LAKE...APPARENTLY DUE TO LAKE STABILIZATION OCCURRING. WEAK
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY FURTHER UPSTREAM SHOULD DROP TOWARD LERI LATE
THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD GIVE MORE SUPPORT TO GET A BETTER
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE CONVECTION. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO BACK POPS DOWN
FOR THE TIME BEING EARLY THIS EVENING.

WILL LET THE HEAT ADVISORY AND HEAT WARNINGS HEADLINES CONTINUE
THROUGH 9 PM.

THE OTHER QUESTION IS THE COMPLEX OVER MINNESOTA...WILL IT HOLD
TOGETHER AND WHERE WILL IT END UP. IF IT KEEPS TOGETHER AND SOME OF
THE MODELS DON`T THINK IT WILL THE STORMS MAY END UP OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMPLEX OVER MINNESOTA IS THE BIG QUESTION. IF IT GETS INTO THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS THAT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ENOUGH THAT MAY KEEP NORTHWEST OHIO AWAY FROM HEAT ADVISORY
AND OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. BECAUSE OF THAT...WILL
NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY. THE NORTHEAST AREAS MAY NOT
MEET THE CRITERIA WITH A LITTLE LOWER DEW POINTS TRYING TO MOVE IN
WITH THE BOUNDARY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST.

THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT ON FRIDAY IS IFFY BUT THE CHANCE GETS
BETTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE ECMWF
IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS
SEEM GOOD.

WENT WARM FOR THE LOWS AND CLOSE TO THE MOS NAM FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERALLY FAIR...COOLER AND SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON MONDAY SO THERE IS A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY AND THEN
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE GFS IS FASTER IN
EXITING THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
ON MONDAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR 14C WHICH WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN RECENTLY.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THERE IS EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION WITH CAPE NEAR 4500 J/KG WITH A SINGLE CONVECTIVE CELL
DEVELOPING NW OF GKJ. HOURLY MODEL RUNS OF HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE
VARIABLE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH COVERAGE UNCERTAIN WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE IN
KYNG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MVFR WITH HAZE AND LIGHT FOG FROM 08Z- 12Z
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW
OVER MN DEEPENS INTERACTS WITH HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. WAVES WILL BE AROUND
2 FT GIVE OR TAKE A FOOT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA SINKS SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE ONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS WEAK AS THE ONE TO THE SOUTH
BREAKS DOWN. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...WITH N WINDS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 15 KT. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET.
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH EACH AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A LAKE BREEZE WHICH CAN
LOCALLY SHIFT WINDS.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ007>014-
018>023-027>033-036>038-047.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
006-017.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...REL
MARINE...JAMISON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

436 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING HOT CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE HEAT
WAVE WILL BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. A DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN STORMS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. AS THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BACK WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.
AND IF THAT OCCURS THEN SOME STORMS COULD GRAZE THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING OVER THE TOP OF AN EXPANDING RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FOR
THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO BE EXPANSIVE ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY MORE THAN A TEMPORARY
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS. WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN DEW POINTS...THESE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH MOST LOCATIONS INTO HEAT WARNING
CRITERION /HEAT INDEX 105 OR GREATER/. IN ADDITION THIS WILL BE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH HEAT INDICES. SO EVEN IF SOME PLACES DO
NOT MEET THE THRESHOLD...THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF THE HEAT WILL
TAKE A TOLL. THUS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO ALL
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO FAVOR WARMER MOS FOR
LOWS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES. DUE TO THIS THE ENTIRE AREA
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THE FA WILL STAY DRY
ON FRIDAY AND DURING MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
AFTER THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE PRECIPITATION AND BEGINS TO BRING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAINLY IN
NORTHERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE COMPLETELY
EXITING THE AREA. AFTER SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A GENERAL DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU FIELD HAS FILLED IN NICELY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE CU LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS OUR NORTH ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND THIS
IS WHERE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE TRIED TO GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
NAM IS ALSO SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS AT
LEAST CENTRAL OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD THEREFORE THINK
THAT KCMH/KLCK WILL WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY
EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR ANY CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SO WILL LEAN TO TH DRIER SIDE AND HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

345 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THE CUMULUS DOESN`T
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME BASED
ON THE HRRR AND SREF...THINKING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND COULD BE ANYWHERE.

WILL LET THE HEAT ADVISORY AND HEAT WARNINGS HEADLINES CONTINUE
THROUGH 9 PM.

WENT WARM FOR THE LOWS AND CLOSE TO THE MOS NAM FOR HIGHS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR 14C WHICH WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN RECENTLY.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THERE IS EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION
WITH CAPE NEAR 4500 J/KG WITH A SINGLE CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPING
NW OF GKJ. HOURLY MODEL RUNS OF HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH COVERAGE UNCERTAIN WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
STORMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE IN KYNG
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MVFR WITH HAZE AND LIGHT FOG FROM 08Z- 12Z
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...REL
MARINE...JAMISON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

204 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING...TIMING OF WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IS STILL TOUGH...THINKING AFTER 3 PM. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST PA FROM THE COMPLEX THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.
STILL THINKING THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL IS RELATIVELY DRY...NOT
SURE ABOUT THIS. THE SREF MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE HIGHS. A FEW PLACES MAY BREAK A
RECORD...TOL RECORD IS 99...FDY 97 AND MFD 94.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS VERY WARM AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT VERY UNCOMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTH AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGE THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REALLY SURGES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPRESSION FROM
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
THIS MEANS CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. LOOKING
AT TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY CLOSE TO TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. MAY NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
IN THE WEST AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.

SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SHIFT BACK EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE HEAT SURGES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS NEXT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY EVENING. A SLIGHT BREAK DOWN IN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME TROUGHINESS TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME AND BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN.

IN THE MEAN TIME...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THEY
ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND A LINGERING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE OVER RUNNING OF THE
SHALLOW FRONT. I LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TO
THE LOWER/MID 80S. IT COULD BE COOLER THAN THAT BASED ON THE NORTH
WIND AND THE THREAT OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS. IF SO... THE DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY COULD BE DRAMATIC.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL..PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THERE IS EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION
WITH CAPE NEAR 4500 J/KG WITH A SINGLE CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPING
NW OF GKJ. HOURLY MODEL RUNS OF HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH COVERAGE UNCERTAIN WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
STORMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE IN KYNG
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MVFR WITH HAZE AND LIGHT FOG FROM 08Z- 12Z
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
WEATHER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AS WILL BE THE ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. THE FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CANADA SO
WINDS MAY VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH BACK
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE WIND COMING BACK AROUND
FROM THE SOUTH. LAKE/LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY EACH DAY AND NIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...REL
MARINE...KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

146 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY INITIATE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST. SIMILAR SITUATION TODAY AS WITH
THE PAST FEW AS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR EAST...IN THE AREA CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NUDGING UP A BIT...EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WILL PUSH US UP CLOSE TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
IN ORDER TO AVOID A PATCH WORK OF WARNING AND ADVISORIES...HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR WEST IN AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY. WHILE WE MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT...DECIDED TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION WITH ALL OF THE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITY TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING BACK ON THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION
AND WITH THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE...THE CAP WILL BE
INCREASINGLY HARDER TO BREAK AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS. NAM AND GFS ARE
KEYING ON A WEAK VORT MAX SWINGING SOUTH ALONG THE IN/OH BORDER
TONIGHT...CANADIEN AND EUROPEAN ARE MORE MUTED WITH THIS SCENARIO.
COULD NOT GO DRY BUT DID NOT FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WERE
THAT GREAT.

EACH DAY SHOULD GET PROGRESSIVELY WARMER THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TIME AND SHOULD BRING MUCH MORE MUTED
HIGHS TO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK.

THOUGHT THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT TOO WARM CONSIDERING
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WOULD LET SOME SPOTS DROP DOWN A BIT
LOWER TOWARDS THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN JUST
A BIT...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST
WAS JUST TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH INDICATING THE BEGINNING
OF A TRANSITION. A BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
THEIR SUBSEQUENT RUNS DO NOT ALLOW FOR COMPLETE CERTAINTY...IT IS
OBVIOUS THAT THE TREND WILL BE FOR COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE USED
FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ONE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IS IF THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES...AND THIS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO BE REFINED
ONCE THE FRONTAL TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU FIELD HAS FILLED IN NICELY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE CU LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS OUR NORTH ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND THIS
IS WHERE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE TRIED TO GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
NAM IS ALSO SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS AT
LEAST CENTRAL OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD THEREFORE THINK
THAT KCMH/KLCK WILL WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY
EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR ANY CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SO WILL LEAN TO TH DRIER SIDE AND HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>044-051>053-060-062-070>072-078.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060-062-070>072-078.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ045-046-054>056-
063>065-073-074-079>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ061-077.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>096.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ089>096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ097>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1226 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE HIGHS. A FEW PLACES MAY BREAK A
RECORD...TOL RECORD IS 99...FDY 97 AND MFD 94.

SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SHIFT BACK EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE HEAT SURGES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS WELL.

IN THE MEAN TIME...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL..PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT
AROUND THE "RING OF FIRE" NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE FIRST CHANCE IS
WITH THE STORMS DROPPING SOUTH FROM LAKE HURON. THEY SEEMED TO BE
AIMED AT KERI AND PERHAPS KYNG MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THEY COULD
EXPAND TO OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS NE OH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OR EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NW OH AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1232 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 115 THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1232 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. PLAN
ON SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 9 TO 12 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 16 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KRST. LOOK
FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 6 KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP