Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/03/12
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
745 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND PRODUCE
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MINIMAL DAY TO DAY CHANGES
SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...THERE SHOULD BE A STRONGER ONSHORE TREND FOR TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD HELP THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING AROUND LAX WAS AROUND
1300 FT SO LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS LA COUNTY COASTAL
VALLEYS AND THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS CONFIDENT WITH VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS BASED ON THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS WHERE LA COUNTY SEEMED TO HAVE BETTER AREAL COVERAGE.
TODAY`S ONSHORE GRADIENTS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED...IN FACT
OVER 3 MB WEAKER THAN NAM-WRF WAS INDICATING...THEREFORE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS WERE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN MOST AREAS.
NAM-WRF MODELS WERE INDICATING LAX-DAG SFC GRADIENT TO BE AROUND
+9.5MB BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THIS IS WEAKER BY A COUPLE
OF MILLIBARS...THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY INCLUDING LAKE PALMDALE
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
EXPECT SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 90S.
SYNOPTICALLY IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A SMALL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF TO A VERY WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION
OFF SO CAL COAST TOMORROW AND STICK AROUND THROUGH WED HAVING VERY
LITTLE AFFECT TO THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO WED.
EARLIER RAP13 (FORMERLY RUC MODEL) RUNS INDICATED SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS
AND MORNING SOUNDING FROM VANDENBERG PICKED UP ON SOME LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW FLAT CU BUILDUPS OCCURRED AROUND
LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAT CU ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...12Z MODELS STILL ON BOARD WITH THE WARMING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US STARTS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
WARMER VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AS WELL. STILL A PRETTY DECENT
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO COASTS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY COOL BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH MINIMAL MARINE
LYR. MONSOON FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ON ARIZONA AND POINTS
EAST BUT MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA TO
WARRANT KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION TO SEE IF THE MONSOON
FRONT CREEPS FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. GIVEN THE WARMUP
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED MORE EASILY,
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...03/0045Z.
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KSBA,
WILL REMAIN STRATUS FREE WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR KBUR AND KVNY.
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW BETTER CHANCE OF CIGS TO REACH
THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1300-1800 FT OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
MVFR CONDITIONS START WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MARINE LAYER WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
KBUR...LESS THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
10Z THROUGH 16Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS MIGHT NOT REACH
AIRFIELD. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT COULD GO MVFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME 10-13Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1229 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND UPDATED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING
AND COOLING ALOFT. ALSO HAVE A VORT MAX APPROACHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE
COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR STILL INDICATES SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z.
WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
FLOW HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND DEW POINTS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEW POINTS MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND RAISED THE DEW POINTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
HEAT INDICES IN THE NYC METRO REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE REGION AND THE RESULTING VSBY
REDUCTION IF THEY ARE HEAVY. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING SCT COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 18-22Z WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN THE REGION AND THEREFORE LEAVE AS VCTS IN TAFS. THIS IS
ALSO MAKING WIND FORECASTS MORE UNCERTAIN. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. TO
THE WEST OF IT...MORE OF A SW-W FLOW IS LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
FREQUENCY COULD BE MORE INTERMITTENT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME. MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES
THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1108 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING
AND COOLING ALOFT. ALSO HAVE A VORT MAX APPROACHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE
COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR STILL INDICATES SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z.
WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
FLOW HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND DEW POINTS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEW POINTS MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND RAISED THE DEW POINTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
HEAT INDICES IN THE NYC METRO REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE REGION AND THE RESULTING VSBY
REDUCTION IF THEY ARE HEAVY. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING SCT COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 18-22Z WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN THE REGION AND THEREFORE LEAVE AS VCTS IN TAFS. THIS IS
ALSO MAKING WIND FORECASTS MORE UNCERTAIN. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. TO
THE WEST OF IT...MORE OF A SW-W FLOW IS LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
FREQUENCY COULD BE MORE INTERMITTENT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME. MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES
THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
747 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
AS MLCAPES INCREASE DUE TO SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CANNOT
RULE OUT LOW COVERAGE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG ANY BL CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES SCT CONVECTION FIRING AFTER 17Z. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TODAY. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35
KTS...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO A
STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY TODAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS WHERE
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT BEFORE THEY RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
MID 90S IN NYC...ALTHOUGH COULD FALL SHORT. THIS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS MAY BE A TAD HIGHER
TODAY...YIELDING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z-13Z...THEN GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION...AND INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES RISE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
713 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
AS MLCAPES INCREASE DUE TO SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CANNOT
RULE OUT LOW COVERAGE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG ANY BL CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES SCT CONVECTION FIRING AFTER 17Z. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TODAY. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35
KTS...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO A
STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY TODAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS WHERE
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT BEFORE THEY RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
MID 90S IN NYC...ALTHOUGH COULD FALL SHORT. THIS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS MAY BE A TAD HIGHER
TODAY...YIELDING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z-13Z...THEN GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION...AND INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES RISE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
637 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
AS MLCAPES INCREASE DUE TO SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CANNOT
RULE OUT LOW COVERAGE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG ANY BL CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES SCT CONVECTION FIRING AFTER 17Z. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TODAY. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35
KTS...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO A
STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY TODAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS WHERE
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT BEFORE THEY RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
MID 90S IN NYC...ALTHOUGH COULD FALL SHORT. THIS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS MAY BE A TAD HIGHER
TODAY...YIELDING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGON WHERE
SOME EARLY MVFR VSBY IN HAZE IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z-13Z...THEN GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ACT ON BUILDING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY TO SPARK AFTERNOON TSTMS AT/NEAR MOST TERMINALS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. WEAK COLD FROPA EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.UPDATE (TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE FL PENINSULA...HOWEVER ITS AXIS IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHIFT
HAS WEAKENED THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION AND ALLOWED FOR A BIT
MORE ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION.
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THIS POSITION HAS ALLOWED THE EAST COAST
SEA-BREEZE FROM MELBOURNE SOUTH TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE INLAND OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS FORCING SCT-NMRS STORMS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES ALONG ITS CONVERGENCE WITH THE LESS
PROGRESSIVE WEST-COAST SEABREEZE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THESE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
COLLISION...THEN WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES BACK TO SILENT 10% FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS SEEN UP
TOWARD LEVY COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH EAST AND WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE
COLLISIONS. DID A SIMILAR POP ADJUSTMENT FOR THESE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND LACK OF ANY
SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD EXPECT A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MERGE WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA LIFTS NORTH TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED RANGE STORM COVERAGE (POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT) EXPECTED
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES (POPS 30
PERCENT) FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES ALL
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 70S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS MAINLY INLAND. FMY AND RSW WILL HAVE LINGERING VCTS THROUGH
02 OR 03Z THIS EVENING. LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW WILL HAVE VCTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE HIGH
WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 92 76 92 / 10 10 0 30
FMY 74 93 75 93 / 20 30 30 40
GIF 74 96 75 94 / 30 20 20 30
SRQ 73 90 74 91 / 10 20 20 30
BKV 69 93 69 93 / 10 10 0 30
SPG 78 92 79 91 / 10 10 0 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND HEAT
AGAIN ON MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH. HRRR FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
EARLIER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE WRF AND NAM SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER AFTER WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING... BUT ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AGAIN. WHILE SPC HAD MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY... ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTED MONDAY... HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS... WHILE TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED... GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
TRENDS. MONDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE THE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY... DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WILL STILL WARRANT AT
LEAST THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REACH HEAT
INDICES OF 110-113 DEGREES THEREFORE A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
BAKER
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME RELIEF HERE AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE STATE
WILL BREAK DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WILL NOT QUITE GET INTO THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES WHILE IN THIS
PATTERN BUT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS.
EVEN WITHOUT FRONT...ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESP AS MEAN RH INCREASES ON THURS.
PREV FCST NO TOO FAR OFF. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ON TUES
AND WED AS CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PULLING DOWN GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM ON TUES IF DEW
POINTS DONT MIX OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONTINUED. HAVENT FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE TROPICS EITHER. ATLANTIC
BASIN LOOKS QUIET PER THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...SOME ACTION LIKELY
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT HERE.
SNELSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTH
AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. THE LOWEST RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY 10 MPH OR LESS...THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OR
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MONDAY.
BAKER
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MOST NORTHERN SITES
APART FROM KATL HAVE BEEN HAVING VRB LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNW TO NW AND STAY UNDER
10KTS. KATL HAS BEEN MOSTLY NNW BUT HAS HAD INTERMITTENT VRB
PERIODS. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINLY STAY NNW TO NW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY ABOVE 15KFT WITH FEW070
POTENTIALLY THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... BUT TOO LOW OF CHANCE ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 102 72 99 / 20 20 20 30
ATLANTA 77 99 75 95 / 30 20 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 73 93 67 91 / 20 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 72 100 70 96 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 78 100 75 96 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 76 99 73 96 / 20 20 20 30
MACON 74 101 73 97 / 30 30 30 30
ROME 73 103 70 98 / 30 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 72 98 71 96 / 30 20 20 30
VIDALIA 78 99 78 96 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE HEAT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AS
EXPECTED... WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO RAISE DEWPOINTS
IN PARTS OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE. THE 850MB TEMP FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND CONSIDERING THE INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS... MAX TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE EXTREME LEVELS SET YESTERDAY. RESULTANT
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-110 DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA STILL SUPPORT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING OUT SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES THERE. FOR CONVECTION... THE
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY NEAR THE SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PROGGED SREF
MUCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND BETTER CHANCE FOR AN INFLUENCE OF
LIFT FROM EITHER THE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OR AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
LATER TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST... FOUND IT JUSTIFIED TO RAISE POPS
TO LOW END CHANCE LATE TODAY. WILL MONITOR LATEST HRRR RUNS TO
GET BETTER IDEA ON LOCATION FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE AND BEING SO DRY BELOW 700MB... ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES...
WILL SEE THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUE AS THE 594DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /WITHIN A HALF DEGREE/...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES..EXPECT
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. NOT ENOUGH OF
A DIFFERENCE TO NOTICE THOUGH...ITS STILL HOT. WITH RIDGE WEAKENING
ON MONDAY AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER...WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES.
GFS AND NAM DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE. GIVEN OBSERVED DEW POINTS YESTERDAY IN THE 50S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 40S...LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
BY DOING THIS THOUGH...SOME PLACES COME IN JUST BELOW THE 105 AND
110 HEAT INDEX CRITERIA FOR THE THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING...RESPECTIVELY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEW POINT FORECAST
THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION...HAVE HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-108 RANGE FOR MONDAY FOR SOME OF THE CWA SO WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA FOR MONDAY.
BESIDES THE HEAT...CONVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP YESTERDAY...AND NOT
JUST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. WITH SFC TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
TODAY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THAN YESTERDAY SO INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE. SPC HAS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE AREA WITH
THE BEST CAPE. FORECAST MIXED CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG....SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. EVEN WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY...RIDGE WILL BE WORKING TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION SO
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SEVERITY. COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM THOUGH AND
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND. WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPPER
RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS AGAIN ON MONDAY...HAD
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFTER
00Z TUESDAY...IN THE LONG TERM.
11
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE GRADUAL
BREAKDOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OF HISTORY MAKING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THESE PRECISELY DUE TO FEEDBACK ISSUES AT
TIMES. LOOKS AS THOUGH FIRST IN A SERIES MOVES OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TRAJECTORY SUGGESTING MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THU EVENING ENHANCING POP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE IN SOME MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
DESPITE THE BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
MUCH HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND HEAT INDICES COULD REMAIN AN
ISSUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEESE
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN THE MODELS...BUT THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND OBSERVED VALUES FROM
YESTERDAY. WITH LOWERED DEW POINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
50S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. FUELS ARE DRY SO HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MOST NORTHERN SITES
APART FROM KATL HAVE BEEN HAVING VRB LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNW TO NW AND STAY UNDER
10KTS. KATL HAS BEEN MOSTLY NNW BUT HAS HAD INTERMITTENT VRB
PERIODS. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINLY STAY NNW TO NW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY ABOVE 15KFT WITH FEW070
POTENTIALLY THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... BUT TOO LOW OF CHANCE ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 107 73 103 74 / 30 30 20 20
ATLANTA 104 78 99 75 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 96 72 93 67 / 30 30 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 103 69 100 70 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 102 77 101 74 / 30 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 101 76 99 74 / 30 30 20 30
MACON 103 73 101 75 / 30 30 20 20
ROME 105 72 102 71 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 103 71 99 72 / 30 30 20 20
VIDALIA 101 79 99 77 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1218 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE HEAT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AS
EXPECTED... WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO RAISE DEWPOINTS
IN PARTS OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE. THE 850MB TEMP FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND CONSIDERING THE INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS... MAX TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE EXTREME LEVELS SET YESTERDAY. RESULTANT
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-110 DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA STILL SUPPORT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING OUT SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES THERE. FOR CONVECTION... THE
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY NEAR THE SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PROGGED SREF
MUCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND BETTER CHANCE FOR AN INFLUENCE OF
LIFT FROM EITHER THE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OR AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
LATER TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST... FOUND IT JUSTIFIED TO RAISE POPS
TO LOW END CHANCE LATE TODAY. WILL MONITOR LATEST HRRR RUNS TO
GET BETTER IDEA ON LOCATION FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE AND BEING SO DRY BELOW 700MB... ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
.DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES...
WILL SEE THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUE AS THE 594DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /WITHIN A HALF DEGREE/...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES..EXPECT
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. NOT ENOUGH OF
A DIFFERENCE TO NOTICE THOUGH...ITS STILL HOT. WITH RIDGE WEAKENING
ON MONDAY AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER...WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES.
GFS AND NAM DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE. GIVEN OBSERVED DEW POINTS YESTERDAY IN THE 50S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 40S...LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
BY DOING THIS THOUGH...SOME PLACES COME IN JUST BELOW THE 105 AND
110 HEAT INDEX CRITERIA FOR THE THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING...RESPECTIVELY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEW POINT FORECAST
THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION...HAVE HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-108 RANGE FOR MONDAY FOR SOME OF THE CWA SO WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA FOR MONDAY.
BESIDES THE HEAT...CONVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP YESTERDAY...AND NOT
JUST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. WITH SFC TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
TODAY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THAN YESTERDAY SO INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE. SPC HAS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE AREA WITH
THE BEST CAPE. FORECAST MIXED CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG....SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. EVEN WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY...RIDGE WILL BE WORKING TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION SO
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SEVERITY. COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM THOUGH AND
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND. WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPPER
RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS AGAIN ON MONDAY...HAD
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFTER
00Z TUESDAY...IN THE LONG TERM.
11
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE GRADUAL
BREAKDOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OF HISTORY MAKING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THESE PRECISELY DUE TO FEEDBACK ISSUES AT
TIMES. LOOKS AS THOUGH FIRST IN A SERIES MOVES OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TRAJECTORY SUGGESTING MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THU EVENING ENHANCING POP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE IN SOME MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
DESPITE THE BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
MUCH HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND HEAT INDICES COULD REMAIN AN
ISSUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEESE
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN THE MODELS...BUT THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND OBSERVED VALUES FROM
YESTERDAY. WITH LOWERED DEW POINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
50S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. FUELS ARE DRY SO HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SPOTTY MVFR DUE TO
REDUCED VSBY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HZ FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EVEN THOUGH VSBYS MAY BECOME P6SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY
HOWEVER...COULD SEE VRB OR A NNE OB THIS MORNING. WITH WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SW THOUGH...THESE NNE WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY BUT CHANCE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBY...WIND
DIRECTION AND CONVECTION NOT OCCURRING AT ATL.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 106 73 103 74 / 30 30 20 20
ATLANTA 104 78 99 75 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 98 72 93 67 / 30 30 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 105 69 100 70 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 103 77 101 74 / 30 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 103 76 99 74 / 30 30 20 30
MACON 105 73 101 75 / 30 30 20 20
ROME 107 72 102 71 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 104 71 99 72 / 30 30 20 20
VIDALIA 103 79 99 77 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT WINDS...FAIR SKIES...AND FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG/BR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT DPA AND
POSSIBLY RFD. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
FORM AND PUSH INLAND AND THROUGH ORD/MDW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING TSRA CHANCES...SURFACE FRONT IS ILL DEFINED AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE LAKE
BREEZE COULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND SO FELT BEST
COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO MAINTAIN THE PROB30 FOR STORMS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING TSRA POTENTIAL SUNDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
252 AM CDT
LIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
LARGELY DICTATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD MOVE DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH COUPLE
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1226 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT WINDS...FAIR SKIES...AND FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG/BR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT DPA AND
POSSIBLY RFD. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
FORM AND PUSH INLAND AND THROUGH ORD/MDW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING TSRA CHANCES...SURFACE FRONT IS ILL DEFINED AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE LAKE
BREEZE COULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND SO FELT BEST
COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO MAINTAIN THE PROB30 FOR STORMS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING TSRA POTENTIAL SUNDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 TO
15 KT TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THESE PERIODS OF
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES TO DOMINATE THE WIND
FIELDS CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRIME FOCUS CONTS ON ONGOING SVR
CONVECTION AND UPDATES WITH CANCLG WW443 IN OVERTURNED/STABILIZED
WAKE. PRIME DCAPE/MLCAPE RESERVOIR AND STORM MOTION FAVORING
PERSISTENCE WRT COLD POOL MAINTENANCE ACRS SERN CWA. STORMS THAT
FIRED ACRS NWRN CWA/SWRN LWR MI IN REGN OF LESSER CAPE...THOUGH
OFFSET WITH BETTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG PERIPHERY OF MORE RAPID
40-50 KT MID- TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACRS WCNTL LWR MI INTO LK ERIE.
NAM HINTS AT POTNL WAVE LATE TONIGHT RIDING PERIPHERY OF MIDLVL
RIDGE WITH STRENGTHENING/VEERED LLJ TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...PRIME FOCUS APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA WITH ASSOCD
GRTR OVERNIGHT MUCAPE RESERVOIR...AND WL KEEP ERLY AM HOURS
DRY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW. PRIMARY FOCUS ON SRN GRTLKS REGN
APPEARS TO BE ON DIURNAL DRIVEN AFTN/ERLY EVE CONVECTION FOR
DY2/3 AS THETA-E RESERVOIR BEGINS TO ORIENT GRDLY MORE SW-NE PER
GRDLY BACKING 0-1KM FLOW...WITH MESOBNDRY/LAKE BREEZE FNT/UPSTREAM
MESOVORT EJECTIONS CONTG TO ALL PLAY PSBL ROLES IN INITIATION
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMIZED DIURNAL DESTAB.
&&
.LONG TERM... / TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY /
...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO RENEWED TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST/WEST
COASTS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOCAL AREA WILL STILL HAVE LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE NERN FRINGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS / LOW
LVL THETA-E RIDGE STILL "IN THE VICINITY" DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEAK DIFFUSE LOW LVL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED DIFFICULT TO
TIME LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LIKELY
COMBINE TO FORCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIKELY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN ATTEMPTING TO
MAKE A RUN AT THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOLLOWING
CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE ARE TOO MANY
MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES WRT TO MCS DEVELOPMENT/TRACK/TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED COMPOSITE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS THAT MAKE FORECASTING POPS/WX
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN VERY DIFFICULT. AS A RESULT DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS/OUTFLOWS ALSO MAKES HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH NO CHANGES MADE. UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HEAT RELATED HEADLINES EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAT/HUMIDITY CONCERNS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HELP TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE AND FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/UPDATE...
18 UTC TAFS AND PRIOR/1219 PM ZFP UPDATE. INCRSD UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AMID STRONG INSTABILITY PER RAP/SREF/MODIFIED
SNDGS..NOTED EARLIER RAP PROG BIASED NEGATIVELY/UNDERESTIMATING WRT
OBS MLCAPE. AT PRESENT POOL OF STRONG 3500-4500 J/KG MLCAPE LAID
ACRS NRN INDIANA INTO WRN CWA. DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
MODEST...WITH HIEST VALUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CWA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER NWRLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. STILL
MATURING COLD POOL MERGERS ASSOCD W/UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROVIDE
PRIMARY DMG WIND THREAT LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE ACRS SWRN HALF OF CWA.
INITIATION OF NRN IL CONVECTION COMMENCED RAPIDLY AROUND 1430 UTC
NEAR KSQI PER OUTFLOW/PSBL GRAVITY WAVE EMISSION FROM ERLIER KOTM
CONVECTIVE BEHEMOTH...AND ASSOCD MARKED INCRS SWRLY LLVL FLOW PER
KDVN VWP. TIMING CONVECTION WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN INTO IFR
MET RANGE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE...INTO KSBN 19-21 UTC AND
ABOUT AN HOUR THEREAFTER INTO KFWA WITH SUB-SEVERE GUSTS/SQUALLS
NOTED WITH INIT ISSNC...AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POTN INCRS
TO GTE 50KTS GUSTS AS NEEDED. THEREAFTER VFR ANTICIPATED... SAVE FOR
PSBL SHALLOW RADIATIONAL BR POTNL NEAR DAYBREAK PER WETTED
GROUND/HIGH XOVER TEMPS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
152 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.AVIATION/UPDATE...
18 UTC TAFS AND PRIOR/1219 PM ZFP UPDATE. INCRSD UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AMID STRONG INSTABILITY PER RAP/SREF/MODIFIED
SNDGS..NOTED EARLIER RAP PROG BIASED NEGATIVELY/UNDERESTIMATING WRT
OBS MLCAPE. AT PRESENT POOL OF STRONG 3500-4500 J/KG MLCAPE LAID
ACRS NRN INDIANA INTO WRN CWA. DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
MODEST...WITH HIEST VALUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CWA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER NWRLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. STILL
MATURING COLD POOL MERGERS ASSOCD W/UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROVIDE
PRIMARY DMG WIND THREAT LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE ACRS SWRN HALF OF CWA.
INITIATION OF NRN IL CONVECTION COMMENCED RAPIDLY AROUND 1430 UTC
NEAR KSQI PER OUTFLOW/PSBL GRAVITY WAVE EMISSION FROM ERLIER KOTM
CONVECTIVE BEHEMOTH...AND ASSOCD MARKED INCRS SWRLY LLVL FLOW PER
KDVN VWP. TIMING CONVECTION WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN INTO IFR
MET RANGE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE...INTO KSBN 19-21 UTC AND
ABOUT AN HOUR THEREAFTER INTO KFWA WITH SUB-SEVERE GUSTS/SQUALLS
NOTED WITH INIT ISSNC...AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POTN INCRS
TO GTE 50KTS GUSTS AS NEEDED. THEREAFTER VFR ANTICIPATED... SAVE FOR
PSBL SHALLOW RADIATIONAL BR POTNL NEAR DAYBREAK PER WETTED
GROUND/HIGH XOVER TEMPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...WITH OTHER CONCERN CENTERING ON THE ONGOING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG STALLED WEAK BOUNDARY. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MCS FROM LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH RAPIDLY
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN MISSOURI. A SECONDARY SMALLER MCS
IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN A WEAKENING STATE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING STRENGTH/POSITION OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DECAYING SYSTEMS WITH INDIVIDUAL INITIALIZATIONS VASTLY DIFFERENT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LEND SOME LOW CONFIDENCE TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TODAY. HOWEVER...BACKING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO ADVECT
THESE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS FROM SRN IOWA/NRN MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR INTERACTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS OF HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETAE AIR SETTING UP FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3500 J/KG.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MORE
PRONOUNCED SHEAR PROFILE...BUT NAM PROGS STILL SUGGEST 30 TO 35
KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. CONVECTIVE
MODE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVES...AND WHETHER UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE MARGINAL/WEAKER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES. HIRES ARW HINTS AT POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR CLIPPING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW. INSTABILITY
PROFILES ALONE WARRANT CONTINUED SEVERE MENTION IN HWO THIS
MORNING...AND GREATEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINING...WILL HOLD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DID ADD LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING WITH MORE
POTENT NEBRASKA SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY AIDING IN ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING CIN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH THIS CHANCE
TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH SLIGHT NORTHWARD CREEP OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TODAY...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WITH FORECASTED UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...THIS WOULD PRODUCE NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH APPARENT TEMPS APPROACHING 100. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/DEVELOPMENT ADDS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT FORECASTED APPARENT
TEMPS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
ON MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AND FURTHER SLIGHT
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING WITH POTENTIAL WEAK CAPPING
ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED GIVEN WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM... /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. UNTIL FULLY TAKING CONTROL BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT TRAVERSING NW TO SE THROUGH THE FLOW. EXACT DETAILS AND
TIMING OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OR MCV FOR LEFTOVER CONVECTION REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO SORT OUT...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SLGT CHC POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
THE AREA BEFORE FURNACE GETS TURNED BACK UP HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK WELL THROUGH THE 90S AND POSSIBLY REACH 100 OR HIGHER
AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND. HAVE WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALLBLEND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT COOL BIAS (ALTHOUGH 00Z SETUP DIDN`T COME OUT OVERLY COLD).
HEAT RELATED HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION/UPDATE...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MORE OF THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
EASTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS TO AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. KGLD HAS A BETTER CHANCE
TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SO I WILL LEAVE VCTS
MENTION FROM 01Z-05Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA WITH AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA YET AGAIN.
AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
AND CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT A SEVERAL DAY HEAT
ADVISORY/LOW END HEAT WARNING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS VALUES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA.
CONSIDERED ISSUING HIGHLIGHT NOW...BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO OUTFLOW TODAY...NOT SURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
FAR INTO CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN. FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO FROM MOVING TOO FAR
EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCES SEEM
REASONABLE...BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DAILY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS TO AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. KGLD HAS A BETTER CHANCE
TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SO I WILL LEAVE VCTS
MENTION FROM 01Z-05Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
359 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
03Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. 00Z RAOBS FROM AROUND THE AREA
SHOWED LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
PROFILE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH DNR CONTINUING TO INDICATE A WELL
MIXED...DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS/THUNDERSTORMS AND FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
TODAY...PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND BRING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES INCREASE THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW WARM/DRY THINGS WILL BE TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINK AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LOWER TDS INTO THE
LOWER 50S AND UPPER 50S AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THINK
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RFW CRITERIA...BUT UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY KEEPING CONFIDENCE BELOW
WARNING LEVELS. PLAN ON HOLDING OFF FINAL DECISION FOR A FEW HOURS
TO SEE HOW SFC OBS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS HANDLE SITUATION.
OTHERWISE...WITH MORNING SUBSIDENCE THINK MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG SFC TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 21Z...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE KS-CO STATE LINE BY 00Z. GIVEN OVERALL
LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING UNDER RIDGE...NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CWA NEAR THE CENTER OF H5 RIDGE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION AS THE
PERIOD GOES ON. MODELS SHOWING A SIMILAR MOISTURE PLUME AS
YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH H7 THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA...THINK AT LEAST A
SMALL THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS STILL IS WARRANTED DESPITE
PRESENCE OF LARGE RIDGE AS DIV Q FIELDS NOT INDICATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR EAST ANY
STORMS CAN MAKE IT EACH EVENING. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THETA E RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A
SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE EAST IS SOMEWHAT LOW ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR WEAKEST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN DURING THE PERIOD...NOT
REALLY SEEING A LARGE REASON FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWING IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND THINK A TEMPS NEAR LATEST BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS
DATA LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN ORDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW
HOLDING TEMPS DOWN...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO ALLOW FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA WITH AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA YET AGAIN.
AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
AND CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT A SEVERAL DAY HEAT
ADVISORY/LOW END HEAT WARNING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS VALUES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA.
CONSIDERED ISSUING HIGHLIGHT NOW...BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO OUTFLOW TODAY...NOT SURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
FAR INTO CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN. FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO FROM MOVING TOO FAR
EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCES SEEM
REASONABLE...BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DAILY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECLINE. HRRR SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND AROUND 7Z WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR FOG AT KMCK
AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINING FOG FREE AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE LOW VFR VIS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 70-80
PERCENT.
SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
PLACING ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
320 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
03Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. 00Z RAOBS FROM AROUND THE AREA
SHOWED LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
PROFILE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH DNR CONTINUING TO INDICATE A WELL
MIXED...DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS/THUNDERSTORMS AND FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY
TODAY...PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND BRING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES INCREASE THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW WARM/DRY THINGS WILL BE TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINK AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LOWER TDS INTO THE
LOWER 50S AND UPPER 50S AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THINK
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RFW CRITERIA...BUT UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY KEEPING CONFIDENCE BELOW
WARNING LEVELS. PLAN ON HOLDING OFF FINAL DECISION FOR A FEW HOURS
TO SEE HOW SFC OBS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS HANDLE SITUATION.
OTHERWISE...WITH MORNING SUBSIDENCE THINK MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG SFC TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 21Z...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE KS-CO STATE LINE BY 00Z. GIVEN OVERALL
LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING UNDER RIDGE...NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CWA NEAR THE CENTER OF H5 RIDGE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION AS THE
PERIOD GOES ON. MODELS SHOWING A SIMILAR MOISTURE PLUME AS
YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH H7 THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA...THINK AT LEAST A
SMALL THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS STILL IS WARRANTED DESPITE
PRESENCE OF LARGE RIDGE AS DIV Q FIELDS NOT INDICATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR EAST ANY
STORMS CAN MAKE IT EACH EVENING. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THETA E RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A
SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE EAST IS SOMEWHAT LOW ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR WEAKEST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN DURING THE PERIOD...NOT
REALLY SEEING A LARGE REASON FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWING IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND THINK A TEMPS NEAR LATEST BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS
DATA LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN ORDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW
HOLDING TEMPS DOWN...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO ALLOW FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA WITH AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA YET AGAIN.
AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
AND CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT A SEVERAL DAY HEAT
ADVISORY/LOW END HEAT WARNING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS VALUES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA.
CONSIDERED ISSUING HIGHLIGHT NOW...BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO OUTFLOW TODAY...NOT SURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
FAR INTO CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN. FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO FROM MOVING TOO FAR
EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCES SEEM
REASONABLE...BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DAILY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECLINE. HRRR SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND AROUND 7Z WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR FOG AT KMCK
AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINING FOG FREE AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE LOW VFR VIS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 70-80
PERCENT.
SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
PLACING ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1146 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA...EXITING A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST AND NORTH OF THE
STORM ACTIVITY OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE REACHED AS FAR WEST AS
BURLINGTON AND ST. FRANCIS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL PERSIST...BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THE WINDS PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DECLINING. HAVE
SOME DOUBTS ABOUT ANY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE FLAGLER AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CINH. WITH LITTLE FORCING ASIDE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL SPREAD EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF A TRIBUNE TO
MCCOOK LINE.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
HIGHLITE AT THIS TIME AND LET MID SHIFT TAKE LOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS ALREADY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CO...WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
CWA. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS WERE THAT STABLE AIR BEHIND FIRST
EXITING SHORTWAVE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
UNTIL 00Z...HOWEVER HIGH BASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOVES
EAST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LLJ DEVELOPS AROUND 00Z...AND WILL HELP
SUPPORT SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY AROUND 09Z AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST. NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY A REPEAT OF TONIGHT
WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. I KEPT COVERAGE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH TIMING OF INITIATION
STILL FAVORED IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS WEATHER EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCES BEING IN EASTERN COLORADO...IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECLINE. HRRR SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND AROUND 7Z WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR FOG AT KMCK
AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINING FOG FREE AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE LOW VFR VIS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 70-80
PERCENT.
SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
PLACING ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW THAT THE MCS THAT
HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA HAS EXITED TO THE EAST SO UPDATED TO
TAKE POPS OUT OF THE THE EARLY DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A LITTLE BETTER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER LEAVING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN 100. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
THAT DID GET SOME RAIN WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOOT INTO THE LOW
100S ANYWAY...KEEPING THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
ALSO UPDATED IN TONIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST RUN OF THE
HRRR BRINGING IN THE MCS IN IL. WITH A PROGGED TIMING OF 20Z TO 21Z
MOVING INTO THE CWA...RECENT IR AND VIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION AS WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
REDEVELOPING HERE IN EAST KENTUCKY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SUPPLIED MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS COULD REFIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS RESIDE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. THE ONE
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS UPSTREAM OVER NORTH WESTERN IN AS A MCS
TAKES SHAPE AND BEGINS TRACKING SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS WELL
AS JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 22Z AND HAVE PUT THUNDER OVER JKL AND VCTS OVER LOZ. THIS WILL
PUT JKL IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SME WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH. JKL AND LOZ WILL SEE
MVFR FOG DUE TO THIS AFTERNOONS RAINFALL. BY 13Z TOMORROW...FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CU AT 5 KFT. AT THIS TIME THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHEN THE NEXT MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DUE TO THIS PATTERN IN PLACE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS JACKSON KY
1214 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW THAT THE MCS THAT
HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA HAS EXITED TO THE EAST SO UPDATED TO
TAKE POPS OUT OF THE THE EARLY DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A LITTLE BETTER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER LEAVING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN 100. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
THAT DID GET SOME RAIN WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOOT INTO THE LOW
100S ANYWAY...KEEPING THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
ALSO UPDATED IN TONIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST RUN OF THE
HRRR BRINGING IN THE MCS IN IL. WITH A PROGGED TIMING OF 20Z TO 21Z
MOVING INTO THE CWA...RECENT IR AND VIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION AS WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
REDEVELOPING HERE IN EAST KENTUCKY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SUPPLIED MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS COULD REFIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1206 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW THAT THE MCS THAT
HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA HAS EXITED TO THE EAST SO UPDATED TO
TAKE POPS OUT OF THE THE EARLY DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A LITTLE BETTER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER LEAVING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN 100. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
THAT DID GET SOME RAIN WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOOT INTO THE LOW
100S ANYWAY...KEEPING THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
ALSO UPDATED IN TONIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST RUN OF THE
HRRR BRINGING IN THE MCS IN IL. WITH A PROGGED TIMING OF 20Z TO 21Z
MOVING INTO THE CWA...RECENT IR AND VIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION AS WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
REDEVELOPING HERE IN EAST KENTUCKY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SUPPLIED MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS COULD REFIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
322 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WX SPECIFICS...HOWEVER IN
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HINT AT SOME OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL IL/IN
PICKING UP AROUND 12Z AS IT REACHES NRN KY...AND WOULD REPRESENT A
CHANCE FOR SHRA OR TSTMS NEAR JKL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE NEXT
ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF ERN KY. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS AFTER 18Z. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY HAVE A WLY COMPONENT...REENGAGING
AFTER 14Z TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD OVER KENTUCKY WITH
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY AS SEEN ON
MOSAIC RADAR. ONE OF THESE HELPED SET OFF A SERIES OF STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOTT COUNTY ON EAST THROUGH PIKE COUNTY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. A FEW CELLS REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE EAST IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS UNDERWAY...THOUGH
WITHOUT THE OUTFLOW COOLED AIR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
ENJOYED LAST EVENING. WITH PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY SEEING SOME DECENT
RAINS THIS EVENING HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS TOWARD DAWN. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF MOST OF THE CWA...HAVE GUIDED POPS AND WX
SIMILARLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ALSO TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPERATURES...AND
ESPECIALLY THE DEWPOINTS...FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD HAVE BEEN SENT WITH A NEW ZFP FOR THE
EAST ON THE WAY...AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AND FOR
AN MCS TO FORM AND MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE TEMPERATURE HAS PROBABLY PEAKED...HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY ANOTHER DAY.
THIS SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE WORD COOL WILL
NOT BE SEEN IN A FORECAST ANYTIME SOON.
THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN IS WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE ABLE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE NAM BUFFER FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING MIXING UP TO ABOUT 20K FEET.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
IS MORE LIKE WHAT IS SEEN IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...AS MEASURED BY THE CAPE...WAS SHOWING 5500 JOULES AT NOON.
THIS IS THE HIGHEST VALUES I HAVE EVER SEEN IN KENTUCKY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT IT TAPERS TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT 2000 JOULES AT 8 PM. IN
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...THE MISSING INGREDIENT TENDS TO BE A
MECHANISM TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION APPEARS TO BE LATER IN THE EVENING AROUND
10 OR 11 PM. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MAX OF OMEGA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THAT TIME. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOMETHING TO FORM
EARLIER...BUT THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EASTERN KY WILL BE ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE TROF IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED STATES. AS
SUCH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
IDEA...WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN 20 PERCENT AT
TIMES. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTREME HEAT WILL EASE AS 8H TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FROM TUESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WX SPECIFICS...HOWEVER IN
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HINT AT SOME OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL IL/IN
PICKING UP AROUND 12Z AS IT REACHES NRN KY...AND WOULD REPRESENT A
CHANCE FOR SHRA OR TSTMS NEAR JKL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE NEXT
ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF ERN KY. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS AFTER 18Z. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY HAVE A WLY COMPONENT...REENGAGING
AFTER 14Z TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
146 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AND STRUGGLE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO NUDGE A LITTLE HIGHER AND RAISED THIS
AFTERNOONS TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM BY A DEGREE. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 101F TO 103F. HWO AND SPS
MENTION THE HEAT AS MANY PEOPLE CONTINUE WITHOUT POWER FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT DERECHO EVENT.
THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED. SPC HAS PLACED REGION
UNDER SLIGHT RISK AND SEVERE WEATHER WATCH BOX HAS JUST BEEN
ISSUED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED AROUND 10 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE GFS ESPECIALLY IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER MCS MIGHT MOVE OUR WAY
TONIGHT. RIGHT OFF THE BAT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (EVEN IF THIS
IS OPEN ENDED GIVEN HOW OFF THE CHARTS IT WAS THE OTHER NIGHT)
WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF-ARW IS PASSING IT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE COMING OUT OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY CONVECTION. THE CORFIDI VECTOR FORECASTS ARE INDICATING
MORE OF A SEWD PUSH THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH GIVES THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE HAVE OUR HIGHEST POPS THERE.
NO ENHANCED WORDING ATTM AS THE OVERALL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG PLUS UNCERTAINTY AS TO TRACK. WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE MCS CAN CREATE ITS OWN MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DURING TODAY. MIN TEMPS WERE A CONT AND STAT GUIDANCE
BLEND.
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE THE LOWEST DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY THE
LOWEST MAX TEMPS OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
SOUTHERNMOST REACH ON MONDAY. FORECAST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
SUGGEST WE CAN SHAVE 3-5F OFF OF TODAY`S MAX TEMPS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE STAT GUIDANCE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE INSTABILITY RECOVERY BE SW OF OUR CWA. WE
COMPROMISED FOR NOW, KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS
RETURNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AS HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR
SHOULD RETURN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
BEING HARD PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT EITHER
INTO OR THROUGH OUR CWA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS
THE CWA.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD BEING THE HOTTEST WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S POSSIBLE FOR MAXIMA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD FOR TODAY.
LEE TROF WILL SHARPEN TDA...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL FORM. BEST CHC FOR ANY TSTMS WILL BE THIS AFTN AND
EVE NEAR KCHO...BUT OWING TO TIMING AND INITIATION CONCERNS...ANY
MENTION OF TSTMS WILL BE OMITTED FROM TAF ATTM. INCRD CVRG OF MID-
LVL CLDS TONIGHT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF FOG ATTM OWING TO SLOWER
DIURNAL COOLING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE.
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI/TFG/LWX
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...TFG
LONG TERM...TFG/LWX
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/LWX
MARINE...TFG/LWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1034 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
OTHERWISE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEK. THE COMING WEEKEND
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS WRN UPR
MICHIGAN AND NE WISCONSIN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALIGNED ALONG
THE 850 MB THETA E AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS. EVEN FURTHER
UPSTREAM...IMPRESSIVE MCS/BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO IMPACT NRN
MINNESOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITHIN AN AREA OF MAX CAPE (AROUND 5000 J/KG).
CLOSER TO HOME...ANY ATTEMPS TO GENERATE EVEN THE WEAKEST
CONVECTION OVER OUR CWA HAVE FAILED THANKS TO A DECENT CAP
OVERHEAD PER 00Z APX SOUNDING. ALSO...SURFACE DWPTS WERE MAINLY IN
THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING...BUT HAVE NOW SURGED
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND COOL FRONT. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED HIGHEST POPS/QPF WILL FOCUS
FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MIT
AS REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM MCS REACH OUR CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS WILL IMPACT MAINLY WRN SECTIONS OF OUR
CWA BEFORE THE MAIN MCS ARRIVES. HAVE MODIFIED WX/POPS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE. ANY
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STRONG/SVR WIND GUST/HAIL WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE AS WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
AND VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
KAPX RADAR REMAINS NEAR ECHO-FREE SO FAR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THE FAR ERN EDGE OF A LINE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ERN WISCONSIN IS JUST NOW STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE
LAST FEW BASE REF FRAMES. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS FEEDING OFF A
STRONG CONVERGENCE LINE ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZES AND FED BY 850 MB
THETA E AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS. THE LINE IS ACTUALLY MAKING
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS...BUT INSTEAD SEEMS TO CONTINUALLY BE
REFORMING RIGHT ALONG THE STAGNANT CONVERGENT/LAKE BREEZE LINE.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION
COULD REACH OUR SW CWA THIS EVENING...AND WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION
OF WX/POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. REST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY FOR THE EVENING...AS TEMPS FALL OUT OF THE 80S AND THRU THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS
ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ONE WAS OVER
EASTERN IOWA DRIFTING SOUTHEAST...THE SECOND WAS TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WERE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER...WHILE HIGH BASED CU HAS FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING
INLAND FROM LAKE HURON.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND IS OFTEN THE CASE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF THINGS WELL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT...FIRST IS WITH
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AS IT IMPINGES
UPON 2500+J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING WEST OF GRB ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARCING WESTWARD. EVEN IF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP...INSTABILITY REALLY FALLS OFF THE TABLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL MOSTLY IN THE 50S...SO ITS NOT CLEAR IF
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER. REGARDLESS...LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT NUDGES EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.
MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS
EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PROPAGATING
TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY...WITH BIG TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY (OR IF) CLOUD COVER CAN THIN OUT. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY CENTER ACCOMPANYING THE PRECIP SHIELD
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHICH WOULD TEND TO KEEP SHOWERS/CLOUDS
HANGING ON FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY...AND TRY NOT TO GET TOO HUNG UP ON MESOSCALE SPECIFICS THIS
FAR OUT WITH RESPECT TO THINGS LIKE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISPOSITION.
WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPERATURES...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...
BUT WILL AVOID 90+ READINGS FOR NOW UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON
HEATING POTENTIAL (MCS CLOUD COVER THE USUAL CULPRIT BETWEEN A SUNNY
AND 92 DEGREE FORECAST VERSUS A CLOUDY/RAINY 75 DEGREE REALITY).
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS...CAN ENVISION AN INITIAL CONCERN
WITH THE LEADING EDGE CONVECTION OF MCS WHICH COULD CARRY A
LINGERING WIND THREAT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST LOWER??). BUT BEYOND THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE HOW AFTERNOON EVOLVES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN MICHIGAN MINI HEATWAVE STILL IN THE WORKS
THIS WEEK AS PLAINS HEAT DOME IS FORCED TO FOLD OVER THE REGION...
PUSHED ALONG BY ROUNDS OF ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. STILL
WELL AGREED UPON EVIDENCE OF PATTERN RETROGRESSION THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PLACING THE NORTH WOODS UNDER "COOLER"
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE DURATION ARE
TWO-FOLD...CENTERING ON PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES...AND PROBABLY MOST
IMPORTANTLY...JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
DECENT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWER AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG SOUTHWARD DROPPING
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/COOL FRONT (COLD POOL ENHANCED?). EXIT OF MID
LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND LOSS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY LIKELY TO KEEP COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IN CHECK. DEPENDING
ON YOUR TEMPERATURE TOLERANCE...4TH OF JULY SHAPING UP TO BE AN
EXCELLENT DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES AS PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS TUESDAY NIGHTS SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND MAINTENANCE OF OFF THE DECK
WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOCALES PUSHING 90 DEGREES OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. LIGHT WIND FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT... ALLOWING THE BIG LAKES REFRIGERATORS TO KEEP
SHORELINE COMMUNITIES A TOUCH COOLER.
HEAT TAKES CENTER STAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM HEAT DOME
FOLDS OVER...SPIKING 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S
CELSIUS. INCREASINGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS
DRY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SCRAPPING BY EASTERN
UPPER WHERE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WITH EVEN A FEW MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY IN THE
FAVORED WARMER LOCALES OF NORTHEAST LOWER. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST RENDITION OF
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. NORTHERN LAKES FRONT GETS THE BOOT
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS EARLIER MENTIONED
PATTERN RETROGRESSION BEGINS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MCS
FORMS UPSTREAM AND SLIDES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER AND MUCH MORE BEARABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY
BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THESE TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
EVENING AS REMNANTS OF AN UPSTREAM MCS ARRIVE TOWARD SUNRISE
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THRU THE DAY ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WITHIN ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS EXPECTED
TO VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN WINDS
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...FEF
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRESTING THE RIDGE INTO SE MANITOBA AND THE ADJACENT PORTION OF NRN
ONTARIO HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER TSRA OVER THE NW CORNER OF MN. AT THE
SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH NRN MN INTO CNTRL WI FROM LOW
PRES OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA. HOT AND HUMID AIR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HAS PUSHED MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 3K-4K J/KG RANGE. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI AND FAR SRN UPPER MI BUT HAVE
ALSO DISSIPATED QUICKLY WHERE LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDEPSREAD COVERAGE.
TONIGHT...
MODELS WERE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL EXPAND OVER
NRN MN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS REMAIN ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND LOCATION/TRACK OF THE EXPECTED MCS
MOVING OUT OF NRN MN. WITH ANL ESE TRACK TO ANY MCS AND A
POSSIBLE FURTHER TURN TO THE SOUTH...PER FOREWARD PROPAGATION
CORFIDI VECTORS AND 850-300 EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 03Z-12Z. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH GREATEST CHANCE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FOR SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING...PER
SPC...GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING IN THE 2K-3K J/KG RANGE).
TUESDAY...REMAING SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
WITH COOLER AIR ONLY ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE ENHANCING 500MB LOWS OVER NE
HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND SW CANADA. A TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE E
CANADA LOW WILL BE JUST TO OUR E BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP SHOULD BE QUICKLY EXITING E AS THE SFC SHIFTS FROM S JAMES
BAY AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKING SE TO N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE HEAT TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT RESTS
OVER S LOWER MI AND WI TO THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SD. 850MB
TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH DURING THIS THEORETICAL COOL DONN
PERIOD...FROM 20C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UP TO AN AVERAGE 21C BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SFC. DEW POINTS SHOULD
CHANGE THOUGH...AND HAVE LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO LOOK AT FURTHER LOWERING FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
TIME NEARS.
EXPECT THE SFC HIGH TO EDGE E WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SWINGING OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND THE WARM
FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES...THEY REMAIN WEAK...WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC THROUGH
850MB...WITH LAKE BREEZES CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY...INLAND FROM AREAS
RIGHT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 22C BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE S FLOW...AND
WOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES /COOL DOWN/ OVER N CENTRAL UPPER
MI. HEAT INDEX VALUES/APPARENT TEMPS WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE 92 TO
99 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST WEST AND CENTRAL.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SINK TO OUR SE BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIP S DURING THE DAY AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM S CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT /DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO COOL OFF A BIT FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA LOOKED TO BE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. THE
FCST BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NRN MN THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO AN
MCS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE WRN CWA. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN VCTS AT THIS
POINT SINCE SHRA/TSRA HAVE NOT YET DEVELOPED AND SO NOT CONFIDENT ON
EXACT TIMING/LOCATION. SOME LOWER CIGS/VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF
PASSAGE OF SHRA/TSRA DOES OCCUR. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR
THIS FORECAST AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS FORECAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN THIS WAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL TRHEAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS WITH AN MCS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. AREA OF FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
A WEAK CONVECTIVE VORT IS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
CONVECTIVE VORT HAS ORIGINS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MCS. THE VORT IS QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THE INTERACTION OF THIS VORT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
INDICATES 100MB ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ALREADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION LI/S ARE ON THE ORDER OF -4
TO -9 C.
THE VORT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS MAY THEN
BE MODULATED/SWEPT EAST BY A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30 PCT) WILL
BE FROM KAZO EAST TO KLAN AND KJXN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL DEVELOP. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP SOME MAY
BECOME STRONG GIVEN 40KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HELPS PRODUCE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THRU 18Z MON. HOWEVER A WEAK
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE AFTN AT OR NEAR OUR SSE
TERMINALS (BTL AND JXN). HOWEVER MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD STAY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA.
AFTER THAT THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS GO CALM OR NEAR CALM BUT NOT
ENOUGH POTENTIAL IN THIS TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT
THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN NEAR
KMKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
A WEAK CONVECTIVE VORT IS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
CONVECTIVE VORT HAS ORIGINS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MCS. THE VORT IS QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THE INTERACTION OF THIS VORT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
INDICATES 100MB ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ALREADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION LI/S ARE ON THE ORDER OF -4
TO -9 C.
THE VORT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS MAY THEN
BE MODULATED/SWEPT EAST BY A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30 PCT) WILL
BE FROM KAZO EAST TO KLAN AND KJXN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL DEVELOP. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP SOME MAY
BECOME STRONG GIVEN 40KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HELPS PRODUCE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER... THERE IS A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND THERE IS ALSO SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM MINNESOTA (AT 7 AM) THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEAK FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE LWR MI. SO I PUT VCTS OVER THE I-94 TAFS TO
COVER THAT. I EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF BTL.
WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER... THERE IS A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND THERE IS ALSO SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM MINNESOTA (AT 7 AM) THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEAK FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE LWR MI. SO I PUT VCTS OVER THE I-94 TAFS TO
COVER THAT. I EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF BTL.
WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEST WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS INTO
QUEBEC...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SEASONAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER...ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS
NOTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUSPECT THESE WILL LINGER FOR A BRIEF
TIME BEFORE EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY 08Z. MAY SEE SOME HINTS OF
RENEWED MID CLOUD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST VERY LATE...BUT
OVERALL A MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS INTO THE 50S COOL SPOTS TO LOW/MID 60S NORTHWEST
LOWER LOOKING JUST FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...AS
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL THRU THE 60S JUST AFTER SUNSET. AREA OF
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUD IS NOW JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND WILL BE
STEADILY TRACKING THRU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MODIFIED
SKY FORECAST TO TIME THIS AREA OF CLOUDS THRU...ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL ENTIRE OUR CWA BY AROUND SUNRISE...WITH SOME
WEAK/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY
LATE MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM COOLING
INTO THE 50S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
ASIDE FROM A FEW FAIR WX CU LINGERING EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC
REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THANKS TO A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. IR
SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW AN AREA OF SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN WISCONSIN
STEADILY TRACKING SE TOWARD OUR CWA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CLOUDS
WILL NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AS WINDS BECOME CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS...
STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S. NICE MID
SUMMER SLEEPING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
STALLED FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WEAKISH HIGH PRESSURE AND W/NW FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SPOTTY CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT
BUT NOTHING TOO LARGE OR VIGOROUS AT THE MOMENT. FURTHER NORTH...CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH SOME CU OVER NE
LOWER AND UPPER MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF OLD CONVECTION ADVANCING
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD (REMNANT OF OLD
CONVECTION) ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED. SIMILAR LOW TEMPS AS LAST NIGHT...UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.
SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH 700 MB TEMPS COOLING A GOOD 3 DEGREES. JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTER UPPER AND/OR NE LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THANKS TO
LAKE BREEZES AND PREVAILING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
PATTERN TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF
UNFOLDING...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS
CONFIRMING HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE OF SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PLAINS
RIDGING BOOKENDED BY EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGH AXES. INITIAL
SCORCHER OF A HEAT DOME LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST...KEEPING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TIED ALONG TIGHT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. MOUNTING
EVIDENCE AT LEAST A PIECE OF CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT WILL EXPAND
(ATTEMPT TO?) NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES MID AND LATE WEEK...WHICH FROM
A CONCEPTUAL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE...SETS THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. OF COURSE...
WHOLE FORECAST REMAINS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY...A MANIFESTATION OF
EXACT THERMAL GRADIENT CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOLS
ACTING UPON IT. FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CENTERED ON TRYING TO
SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE ABOVE.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN IMMEDIATELY AS WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST LAKES MONDAY EVENING. SOME EVIDENCE THIS MAY SUPPORT
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN STELLAR DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ARGUES OTHERWISE. IN ADDITION...ANY POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO RIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES PER
PROPAGATION VECTORS. PERSONAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS TURNED IN RECENT
WEEKS GIVEN ONGOING DRY SPELL...AND SIMPLY NEED TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE
BEFORE "CLOUDING" THE FORECAST WITH ADDITIONAL LOW END POP CHANCES.
AT LEAST MORE CONFIDENCE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO MID WEEK AS HEAT EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES...FORCING THERMAL/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO OUR AREA AS IT
DOES SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY LATE MONDAY NIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO RIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY HANGS UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL SOME CONCERNS JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE...WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET TIED TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXACT MOVEMENT
ALSO RAISES SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...WITH GUIDANCE OFTEN OVERLY
AMBITIOUS DRIVING STORMS NORTH IN SUCH A REGIME AS THEY ARE UNABLE
TO RESOLVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OF COMBINED CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS.
WON`T GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND NORTHEAST...PERHAPS BRINGING WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS TO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE WOULD ALSO YIELD
A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...DISPLACING BETTER STORM POTENTIAL TO OUR
NORTH. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT RAIN THREAT. PLENTY OF TIME FOR FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WEAK
COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN...INCLUDING
APN...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL
ONLY MAKE A VICINITY MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...THE
SETUP IS IN PLACE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO LOCALLY PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SOME OFFSHORE GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY...AND LAKE BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
ALL SHORELINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MR/LAWRENCE
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Short Range (Tonight through Tuesday)...
MCV left over from last nights convection over western KS has
sparked isolated storms over central KS. MCV is moving slowly east
under a weak steering flow less than 15kts. While the system is
working into a more unstable airmass will likely need the
development of a good sized cold pool to send any additional
activity into the western CWA. 18Z NAM and latest HRRR provide
enough incentive to mention slight chance pops into the evening
hours for far western counties. Rest of CWA should be quiet
overnight.
For the past several days models have forecast "cooler" temperatures
for the CWA. This is mainly the result of deeper tropical air now
over TX advecting slowly north and cooling temperatures up through
the mid levels. But with the somewhat cooler temperatures spells an
increase in dewpoints/humidity levels so not a good trade off. There
are some signals that warrant adding slight chance pops to the
southern CWA for late Monday afternoon/evening as a couple of weak
vorticity lobes/shortwaves may lift through the CWA. Combination of
steep lapse rates and pockets of deeper moisture around h7 per BUFR
soundings provide the background for pulse type convection
initiating during peak heating and hanging around till mid evening.
Gusty winds and small hail certainly possible. Have not strayed too
far form previous temperature forecast. Heat Index values not high
enough to warrant any advisory.
Slightly warmer air expected to drift back into the CWA on Tuesday
as the deeper tropical plume of moisture/cooler temperatures aloft
peels eastward. Heat Index values crank back into the 100-106 range.
And the drought continues with nearly zero chance of rain.
MJ
Wednesday - Sunday:
Models remain in very good agreement through the extended depicting
the upper ridge expanding and strengthening through the week across
the central CONUS. So the extended range forecast continues to look
hot with little, if any, chance of any organized area of
precipitation. So have kept the entire period dry with temperatures
around 100 degrees for most locations. There may be days that are a
bit warmer and cooler but all in all afternoon highs will be
flirting with the century mark day after day through Sunday. The
later part of the week looks warmer for the entire area as greater
thickness values spread eastward and drape themselves across the
area. But still think highs will be in the 100 to 102 range.
If there is one positive about this heat wave it is that dewpoints
haven`t been extreme. This is most likely due to the drought and the
overall lack of evapotranspiration. But with dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s, the heat has not been as bad as in years past. This has
kept heat index values lower but we`re still expecting heat index
values to range from 100 to 104 through the extended. This is below
advisory levels for any given day. But with this heat being
prolonged, and in the 100 to 104 range, an advisory may be needed
through the end of the week as the cumulative effects of the heat
continue to mount.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...
For 18Z TAFs, will maintain VFR conditions with a general south to
southwest wind <10kts during the period. While the current forecast
is dry there is growing concern that isolated convection could form
late this afternoon over east central/northeast KS and adjacent
nw/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows an apparent vorticity
max over central KS drifting east. There is also a weak boundary
extending from northeast KS into central MO. As convective
temperatures are reached isolated convection is certainly possible.
Since coverage is expected to be isolated will monitor for any
development and amend TAFs if necessary.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
908 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL
IMPULSES PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO BIG HORN
AND TREASURE COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE FROM SHERIDAN TO EKALAKA WHERE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE. CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE WET. HRRR CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SHERIDAN TO EKALAKA OVERNIGHT
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR KEEPING SCATTERED POPS GOING IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
NO CHANGE TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AS HOT
TEMPERATURES... LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. 00Z WRF BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
BILLINGS AROUND 6 PM. STRONG PRE-FRONTAL MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK OVER MANY LOCATION
TOMORROW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN/REGIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN
DETAILS SUCH AS SHORTWAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED IS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH
TIME. THIS PUTS THE BILLINGS CWA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHORTWAVES
IN THIS FLOW WILL TAP INTO AND TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SW CONUS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA. AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT NECESSARILY NAIL DOWN TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AS THIS TIME...SO ESSENTIALLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES BRING WITH IT
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-GENERATED FIRE STARTS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MUCH AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH RECENT
CONVECTION.
WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD...TEMPS LOOK TO BE QUITE
WARM. GIVEN THE TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...TEMPS LOOKS TO
BE CLOSER TO BC GUIDANCE THAN NON-BC GUIDANCE...WHICH PUTS THEM
WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL...THINK LOW TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY WARM START TO EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS-KSHR LINE. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/100 059/087 062/091 064/094 063/094 064/094 065/095
21/N 20/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 051/097 048/086 053/088 054/093 055/092 055/092 055/092
22/T 20/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 059/102 057/090 061/093 063/096 063/095 063/096 064/097
21/G 20/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 066/104 061/090 065/095 066/097 066/097 066/097 067/097
22/T 20/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 063/101 060/090 063/094 067/093 065/094 064/095 064/095
22/T 20/U 22/T 22/T 32/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 061/100 061/089 063/091 065/092 063/092 063/093 064/093
22/T 21/N 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 057/101 053/090 060/091 060/093 060/092 061/092 061/093
21/G 20/U 22/T 23/T 22/T 32/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 274-284.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. HOW
MUCH THE INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO RECOVER IS IN QUESTION...
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH VEERING MANY WINDS IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
MID-LEVEL CAP BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH...
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER INDICES THIS MORNING...
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THE BEST MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND RAP TRENDS DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA BEING ABLE
TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER SOME IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DID SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...
SO WILL CONTINUE THE BASIC FORECAST OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
UNDER BETTER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH...AND WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD TAKE EVEN LONGER TO RECOVER.
OVERNIGHT...DESPITE GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EDGING BACK TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY...
MID-LEVEL NVA IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH 850MB SUBSIDENCE. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE...OVERALL...FAIRLY STABLE...AND WILL FORECAST THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEING DRY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A
FEW 60S READINGS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE OVERALL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR LATEST OVERNIGHT. UNDER LIGHT WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME LIGHT FOG OR AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE COULD OCCUR
AND BE NOTICED AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.
TUESDAY...850-700MB LAPSE RATES RALLY BACK TO VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 8C/KM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER...AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
REGIONAL 850MB THETA-E MAXIMUM IN PLACE...AND THE APPROACH OF A
1.5PVU WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OR WESTERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1000J/KG...THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK APPEARS
REASONABLE.
HEAT ADVISORY VALUES SHOULD BE APPROACHED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM U.S. 1 EAST AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KMEB...THROUGH KFAY...TO ABOUT KRWI. EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
ON THE MARGINS...APPROACHING 105...AND FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
WILL NOT CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER DAY ALLOWING A
REVIEW OF LATER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE TO ASCERTAIN THE
DETAILS AND POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY MENTION THIS IN
AN UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND REGARDLESS...
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY IN
ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO CAUSE
SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE PRECIP WATER VALUES REACHING 1.8-2 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF VORTICES TRAVERSING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL AID TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS. WHILE EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
OCCUR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS...A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TO DROP SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A
GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WIND FIELD NOT OVERLY STRONG SUGGESTING SLOW
MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...MAINLY
IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...QUITE A BIT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING BOTH DAYS.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WHICH WILL
BE DICTATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
THINK THAT WE MAY SEE QUITE OF BIT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING
LIMITING INSOLATION THOUGH SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN BY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...
THURSDAY...LOW-MID LEVEL NW FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE LINGERING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
T-STORMS THU AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS. THIS TOO WILL AID TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION BUT LEAD TO HOT TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY WILL EXPAND
EAST WITH NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY BOTH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WARMING ATMOSPHERE LEADS TO
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10M ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND 20M ABOVE ON
SATURDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY AND
MID-UPPER 90S SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THOUGH MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO DIMINISH RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN OUR REGION.
STILL...WITH A MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DO EXPECT
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. THICKNESSES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL YIELDING MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
MONDAY...MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND GAINS SOME AMPLITUDE.
THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW A S/W AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH/ENTER OUR REGION. WENT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE POP MONDAY WITH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER TEMPS THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NC SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING..WITH CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE MTNS OUT OF TN
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE SAME FATE. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z/WED...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PREDAWN MVFR FOG. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG/HAZE...MAINLY MVFR...COULD OCCUR AS THE AIR MASS CHANGES
LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
JULY 3 (TUESDAY)
RDU: 98 (1955)
GSO: 98 (1911)
FAY: 100 (1954)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/30/2012, 6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988,
7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...CBL/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT COULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS. SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING THIS EVENING WITH
STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING AGITATION
IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO SOUND TO UPSTATE
SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID
CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
LOCALLY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION
THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO
COUNTY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW
HEIGHTENED CONVG INTO THE TROUGH IN THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE
MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC SO THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH
RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE 100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES
OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES
BUT THE MLCAPES OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG...AND SHOW THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER
THAN THE OBVIOUS FORECAST/POP RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FEELS OF HEIGHTENED IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL
TURN SEVERE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DUE THE EXTREME UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION EXPECTED.
NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.
EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
BY THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH
OF 40KT 500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE
STORMS DO FIRE THEY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED
`THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE` BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME
VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS HERE IN THE
CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH HOWEVER THESE VALUES
WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY
STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY
`FAT` CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C FAVORING THE GROWTH OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR HAIL IN THE LATEST
SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY
HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO
BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE RESULTING FROM BAND OF
WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY. THE EXTREME HEAT IN
PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST
DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE TORNADO THREAT
NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION A DECENT
POSSIBILITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST TIMING WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES
AWAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH MAY
ALSO REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
THROUGH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. TRIGGERS INCLUDE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM SWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RIGHT NOW BORDERLINE
ON MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE
AS TO IF AND WHEN WE ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA UNDER NORTHEAST
EDGE OF 5H RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
BY A 5H TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA MORE OR LESS IN DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUD. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK TO ENHANCE
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. POP VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES EARLIER. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLING A
LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMEDIATE MVFR
FROM HAZE AT ALL SITES. VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE INTENSE HEAT...AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS PLACE ALL TAF SITES IN A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE CB MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR NOW WILL HAVE
TO AMEND TO +TSRA ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO FORM. ANTICIPATE SO MVFR
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IFR ONLY IN LOCATION IN OR NEAR
DOWNDRAFT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STAGNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
AND OVER THE WATERS AT THIS TIME. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE
WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE
MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEST ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHOW
IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR MARINE
WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 15 KT. PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL ENHANCED PIEDMONT TROUGH...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND
SUBTLE EXPANSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASES IN
SPEEDS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST OCCASIONAL 20 KT IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR
THU/FRI...MAINLY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 1 FT OR SO SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...LATEST ETSURGE MDL FORECAST DATA SHOWS A
POSITIVE HALF FOOT ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...JUST BREACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR LOW LYING AREAS ADJOINING
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE WILL BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. SAME
DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHTS EVENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...MJC/III/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT COULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL
MOVING ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
CERTAINLY PROVIDE A MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD
LIKELY STAY NORTH OF HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY
INCREASING AGITATION IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO
SOUND TO UPSTATE SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF
PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE
VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS
PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOCALLY STILL APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR
FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO COUNTY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW HEIGHTENED CONVG INTO THE TROUGH IN
THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC SO THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY HIGH
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE
100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE
REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES BUT THE MLCAPES OVER
WESTERN ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE APPROACHING 5000
J/KG...AND SHOW THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS
FORECAST/POP RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE INITIATION FEELS
OF HEIGHTENED IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL TURN SEVERE ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY DUE THE EXTREME UPDRAFT ACCELERATION EXPECTED.
NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.
EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
BY THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH
OF 40KT 500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE
STORMS DO FIRE THEY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED
`THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE` BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME
VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS HERE IN THE
CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH HOWEVER THESE VALUES
WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY
STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY
`FAT` CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C FAVORING THE GROWTH OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR HAIL IN THE LATEST
SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY
HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO
BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE RESULTING FROM BAND OF
WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY. THE EXTREME HEAT IN
PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST
DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE TORNADO THREAT
NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION A DECENT
POSSIBILITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST TIMING WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES
AWAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH MAY
ALSO REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
THROUGH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. TRIGGERS INCLUDE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM SWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RIGHT NOW BORDERLINE
ON MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE
AS TO IF AND WHEN WE ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA UNDER NORTHEAST
EDGE OF 5H RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
BY A 5H TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA MORE OR LESS IN DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUD. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK TO ENHANCE
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. POP VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES EARLIER. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLING A
LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMEDIATE MVFR
FROM HAZE AT ALL SITES. VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE INTENSE HEAT...AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS PLACE ALL TAF SITES IN A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE CB MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR NOW WILL HAVE
TO AMEND TO +TSRA ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO FORM. ANTICIPATE SO MVFR
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IFR ONLY IN LOCATION IN OR NEAR
DOWNDRAFT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STAGNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE
FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SHOW IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS
AND/OR MARINE WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 15 KT. PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL ENHANCED PIEDMONT TROUGH...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND
SUBTLE EXPANSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASES IN
SPEEDS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST OCCASIONAL 20 KT IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR
THU/FRI...MAINLY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 1 FT OR SO SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...LATEST ETSURGE MDL FORECAST DATA SHOWS A
POSITIVE HALF FOOT ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...JUST BREACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR LOW LYING AREAS ADJOINING
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE WILL BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. SAME
DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHTS EVENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>109.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...MJC/III/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT...COULD TRIGGER A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST. EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL MOVING
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY
PROVIDE A MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGITATION IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO SOUND TO
UPSTATE SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID
CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOCALLY
STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION THE THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO COUNTY AND
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW HEIGHTENED CONVG
INTO THE TROUGH IN THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC
SO THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY
HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE
100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE
REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES BUT THE MLCAPES OVER WESTERN
ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE APPROACHING 5000 J/KG...AND SHOW
THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS FORECAST/POP
RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE INITIATION FEELS OF HEIGHTENED
IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL TURN SEVERE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DUE
THE EXTREME UPDRAFT ACCELERATION EXPECTED.
NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.
EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS BY
THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT
FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP
IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 40KT
500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED BY OUTFLOW FROM
SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE STORMS DO FIRE THEY
WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED `THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE`
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH
AS IT GETS HERE IN THE CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH
HOWEVER THESE VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG
RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A
LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY `FAT` CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C
FAVORING THE GROWTH OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR
HAIL IN THE LATEST SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM
TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH
CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
RESULTING FROM BAND OF WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY.
THE EXTREME HEAT IN PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE
INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE
TORNADO THREAT NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
TODAY...AND BACK TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BASICALLY PLACES THE
ILM FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BATTLEFIELD FOR CONVECTION. UPSTREAM
WEAK IMPULSES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS/MCC FOR
EACH OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS
INTO SCATTERED CRITERIA. THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS THE CAP
ALOFT WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES...AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO BACK TRACK TO THE NE GULF COAST DUE TO ITS
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO OPEN UP CONVECTION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ELONGATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO NAM MET
MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS SUPERIORITY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM...WILL MESH IN WITH THE MAIN UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE ILM FORECAST AREA WILL SUCCUMB TO THE UPPER
TROUGHINESS. THE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...THE SEA BREEZE...AND ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...WILL ALL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INITIATE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...POPS IN THE
20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE ADVERTISED EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL OBSERVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THE PREVIOUS DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMEDIATE MVFR
FROM HAZE AT ALL SITES. VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE INTENSE HEAT...AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS PLACE ALL TAF SITES IN A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE CB MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR NOW WILL HAVE
TO AMEND TO +TSRA ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO FORM. ANTICIPATE SO MVFR
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IFR ONLY IN LOCATION IN OR NEAR
DOWNDRAFT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STAGNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE
FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SHOW IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR
MARINE WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE
U.S. MAINLAND IN THE VICINITY OF FL AND GA THRU OUT THE SHORT TERM.
THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD SW WIND DIRECTIONS...AND
A MODESTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.
THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 3 FT SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE
THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE OTHER PLAYER WILL BE A 1 TO 2 FT SE 9-10
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVE WILL
DOMINATE SEAS AS SEEN WITH AVAILABLE SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS.
OVERALL...EXPECT 2 TO 4 FOOT SIG SEAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO ONLY SMALL CHANGES WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN.
THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN SOME TOWARD THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT WITH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT RANGE. SIG SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 5 FT AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AGAIN...SHORT PERIOD AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD...WILL DOMINATE THE SIG
SEAS. THE UNDERLYING SE SWELL WILL REMAIN IN THAT 1-2 FT RANGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>109.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...HAWKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
733 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES
OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...AND SLIGHT CHANCES
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS MAY NEED TO BE
DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE
HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING POPS. GOLF BALL
HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MONDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH RISING PRESSURES... WHILE 850
MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RELATIVELY STATIC. THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TO FALL AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT
SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 99 DEGREES STILL
EXPECTED... MAINLY SOUTH... AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH... WILL RETAIN A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GOLDSBORO TO WADESBORO. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY VERIFY ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE... BUT
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES 98
TO 101.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP BUT INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY PERSIST. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE HIGH AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD NOT FIRE UNTIL
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRIMARILY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BUT STRENGTH MINIMALLY TRIMMED BY
LESS SEVERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REDUCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. ONE
INCH HAIL A LESSER THREAT.
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH... HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST. CONVECTION AND SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST TO SUNRISE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ONCE
THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. AMPLE MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 FEET
TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. 40 PERCENT CHANCES EAST AND 30 WEST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 1425 METERS AT GREENSBORO
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT COOLING. STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY SEND SOME READINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S... BUT LOW TO
MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST -- A PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS TIME OF YEAR -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IN THE HOT MID LEVEL
RIDGE...ENCOURAGED BY A TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS
MORNING...BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH PATTERNS SUGGEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO - IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
20 SUGGESTS CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
92 TO 99 AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY AND NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYTIME... BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE LAURINBURG TO GOLDSBORO AFTER 3 PM. DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE WELL AHEAD OF ANY MATURE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION LIKELY
TO PERSIST TO MIDNIGHT OR BEYOND. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE. FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH THE RISK OF
STORMS INCREASING FOR MONDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... AND
CONTINUING WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50
MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES
OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...AND SLIGHT CHANCES
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS MAY NEED TO BE
DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE
HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING POPS. GOLF BALL
HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MONDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH RISING PRESSURES... WHILE 850
MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RELATIVELY STATIC. THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TO FALL AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT
SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 99 DEGREES STILL
EXPECTED... MAINLY SOUTH... AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH... WILL RETAIN A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GOLDSBORO TO WADESBORO. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY VERIFY ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE... BUT
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES 98
TO 101.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP BUT INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY PERSIST. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE HIGH AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD NOT FIRE UNTIL
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRIMARILY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BUT STRENGTH MINIMALLY TRIMMED BY
LESS SEVERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REDUCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. ONE
INCH HAIL A LESSER THREAT.
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH... HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST. CONVECTION AND SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST TO SUNRISE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ONCE
THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. AMPLE MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 FEET
TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. 40 PERCENT CHANCES EAST AND 30 WEST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 1425 METERS AT GREENSBORO
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT COOLING. STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY SEND SOME READINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S... BUT LOW TO
MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST -- A PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS TIME OF YEAR -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IN THE HOT MID LEVEL
RIDGE...ENCOURAGED BY A TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS
MORNING...BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH PATTERNS SUGGEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO - IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
20 SUGGESTS CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
92 TO 99 AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY AND NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (SUB VFR CONDITIONS)... WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM. THUS... HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AND WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
KINT/KGSO... WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS... GIVEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
RESULTANT COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH.
LOOKING BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE RISK OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
341 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN
CHANCES OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF
FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...
AND SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS
MAY NEED TO BE DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING
POPS. GOLF BALL HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT
DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MONDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH RISING PRESSURES... WHILE 850
MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RELATIVELY STATIC. THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TO FALL AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT
SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 99 DEGREES STILL
EXPECTED... MAINLY SOUTH... AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH... WILL RETAIN A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GOLDSBORO TO WADESBORO. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY VERIFY ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE... BUT
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES 98
TO 101.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP BUT INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY PERSIST. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE HIGH AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD NOT FIRE UNTIL
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRIMARILY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BUT STRENGTH MINIMALLY TRIMMED BY
LESS SEVERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REDUCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. ONE
INCH HAIL A LESSER THREAT.
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH... HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST. CONVECTION AND SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST TO SUNRISE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ONCE
THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. AMPLE MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 FEET
TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. 40 PERCENT CHANCES EAST AND 30 WEST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 1425 METERS AT GREENSBORO
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT COOLING. STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY SEND SOME READINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S... BUT LOW TO
MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASINGLY MOST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30 PERCENT BUT
COULD BE PERSUADED TO RAISE POPS ANOTHER 10-20 PERCENT IN LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCE IF A TRIGGER MECHANISM CAN BE IDENTIFIED ALOFT.
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 95-99
DEGREE RANGE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE
SE U.S. (MAINLY THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF) WITH A WEAKER/BAGGIER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING INTO THEN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY STRONG INSOLATION SHOULD TRIGGER A 1:4 TO
1:3 THREAT OF A T-STORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING GRADUALLY EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS-LOWER OH
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS GFS
SUGGEST THICKNESSES 5-10M HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST AFTERNOON
TEMPS GRADUALLY BACKING OFF EACH DAY WITH MID 90S ANTICIPATED
WED-THU AND LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (SUB VFR CONDITIONS)... WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM. THUS... HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AND WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
KINT/KGSO... WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS... GIVEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
RESULTANT COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH.
LOOKING BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE RISK OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
316 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN
CHANCES OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF
FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...
AND SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS
MAY NEED TO BE DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING
POPS. GOLF BALL HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT
DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
MIND-UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE TAKES A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WILL
SLOWLY ABATE AND THAT CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MONDAY STILL A GOOD 20-25M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN VICINITY OF THE CENTURY MARK.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 105
DEGREES NW AND 107-110 IN THE EAST-SE. SINCE THIS WILL BE THE FOURTH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS...WILL GO WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR MONDAY. PREFER WATCH OVER EXTENSION OF
CURRENT WARNING AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS TO HANG AROUND MONDAY TO LIMIT INSOLATION AT TIMES.
ALSO...POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TO INITIATE
SOONER THAN LATE AFTERNOON (THOUGH TIMING OF PERTURBATIONS IN NW
FLOW SUSPECT THIS FAR OUT).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASINGLY MOST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30 PERCENT BUT
COULD BE PERSUADED TO RAISE POPS ANOTHER 10-20 PERCENT IN LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCE IF A TRIGGER MECHANISM CAN BE IDENTIFIED ALOFT.
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 95-99
DEGREE RANGE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE
SE U.S. (MAINLY THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF) WITH A WEAKER/BAGGIER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING INTO THEN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY STRONG INSOLATION SHOULD TRIGGER A 1:4 TO
1:3 THREAT OF A T-STORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING GRADUALLY EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS-LOWER OH
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS GFS
SUGGEST THICKNESSES 5-10M HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST AFTERNOON
TEMPS GRADUALLY BACKING OFF EACH DAY WITH MID 90S ANTICIPATED
WED-THU AND LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (SUB VFR CONDITIONS)... WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM. THUS... HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AND WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
KINT/KGSO... WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS... GIVEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
RESULTANT COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH.
LOOKING BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE RISK OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
927 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ELIMINATED CHANCE POPS EAST OF CLEVELAND FOR TONIGHT. PUSHED BACK
POPS IN THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE STORMS MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN APPEAR THAT THEY WILL STAY WEST OF AREA...BUT
STILL NOT 100 PERCENT CONVINCED.
LATEST HRR SHOWS COMPLEX OVER MINNESOTA MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING. LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
IT REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR WHICH DID A DECENT JOB LAST
NIGHT...CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO THE NW AND W WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES SIMILAR TO EARLIER PACKAGE. WESTERN
AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO
KNOW HOW MUCH OF THIS IS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THAT IT IS WHEN THE PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY MAX OUT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENT THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE WARNING AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL HANG ON TO A MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY
FOR DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
WARM AND HAVE GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED
TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WHEN SOME MVFR FOG WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP FOR INLAND TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR WESTERN TAF TONIGHT BUT THREAT TOO SMALL TO MENTION. BETTER
CHANCE FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THREAT STILL LIMITED
SO WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS FOR NOW.
.OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN NON VFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO CROSS THE LAKE. UNTIL THEN THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE LAKE APPEARS TO
BE QUIET...WITH WAVES STAYING 3 FEET OR LESS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY GET A LITTLE MORE CHOPPY WITH NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER THE FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB/KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THEN NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE I-75 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO
INCREASE THE POP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW WILL CLIP THE AREA. IT IS HOT ENOUGH
THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
BRIEFLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT
AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.
SECOND...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED GIVEN HOW THIS MAY INTERACT WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TS COMPLEX. THINKING THAT IF THERE IS ANY DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF
THIS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS COMPARED WITH THE COMPLEX OFF
TO THE WEST. THE HRRR IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOLUTION
BRINGING ANY SHRA/TS WELL EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE SREF
MAINLY KEEPS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. ONE OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ITEMS TO NOTE WAS THAT DPTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A
BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS HAVE FORECAST WHICH INDICATES THERE MAY BE
A BIT MORE SFC INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
FINALLY...WELL UPSTREAM THERE IS RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER MN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEATHER
EVOLVING BY THE HOUR THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
WENT MAINLY A BIT MILDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LAST
NIGHTS LOWS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN BEGIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE TOUGH TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR WEATHER WILL BE MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. OVERALL KEPT POPS GENERALLY LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. DURING THIS TIME ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM
WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF TRACKING MORE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS GIVEN GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA. CARRY AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED NIGHT. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE
AIRMASS CHANGE THOUGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN AND DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE 60S. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT ON
THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
CHALLENGE IS THE WEEKEND. THE GFS TAKES A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND MEANING TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE THAT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A GENERIC SMALL POP ON
SUNDAY. HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MI SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT ACROSS LERI. CONVECTION FIRING OVER IN SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE SW OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE KFDY AND KMFD A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FURTHER OUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN
THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY ONSHORE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES THE FLOW
WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SPEEDS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ABE/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THEN NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT
AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.
SECOND...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED GIVEN HOW THIS MAY INTERACT WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TS COMPLEX. THINKING THAT IF THERE IS ANY DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF
THIS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS COMPARED WITH THE COMPLEX OFF
TO THE WEST. THE HRRR IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOLUTION
BRINGING ANY SHRA/TS WELL EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE SREF
MAINLY KEEPS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. ONE OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ITEMS TO NOTE WAS THAT DPTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A
BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS HAVE FORECAST WHICH INDICATES THERE MAY BE
A BIT MORE SFC INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
FINALLY...WELL UPSTREAM THERE IS RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER MN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEATHER
EVOLVING BY THE HOUR THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
WENT MAINLY A BIT MILDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LAST
NIGHTS LOWS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN BEGIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE TOUGH TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR WEATHER WILL BE MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. OVERALL KEPT POPS GENERALLY LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. DURING THIS TIME ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM
WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF TRACKING MORE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS GIVEN GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA. CARRY AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED NIGHT. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE
AIRMASS CHANGE THOUGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN AND DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE 60S. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT ON
THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
CHALLENGE IS THE WEEKEND. THE GFS TAKES A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND MEANING TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE THAT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A GENERIC SMALL POP ON
SUNDAY. HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MI SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT ACROSS LERI. CONVECTION FIRING OVER IN SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE SW OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE KFDY AND KMFD A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FURTHER OUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN
THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY ONSHORE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES THE FLOW
WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SPEEDS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL AT 1630Z
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND SREF PROJECTIONS
INDICATING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE MENTION
OF LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO WATCHING AREA OF SHRA OVER SRN MI WHICH IF CONTINUING WOULD
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NRN OH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ADDED THE SLGT
CHC POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT MAINLY NOT UNTIL AFT 22-23Z. THINKING
THAT THUNDER WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY WITH SHRA TO THE
NORTH...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
EXPECT FOR TODAY THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE TODAY WITH
CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHILE
AFTERNOON CAPES IN NRN OHIO WILL TOP OUT AT 1000J/KG. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ORIGINAL...NAM12 SHOWS A LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. SREF BEINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THIS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW AS WARM FRONT/TRIGGER WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NAM12 SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL TURN WARM AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS
THE FRONTS IN THE AREA WILL CHANCE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
TRIM POPS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING CHANCE POPS ONLY FAR SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND HEAT DOMINATE THE REGION. A SEMI BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MI SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT ACROSS LERI. CONVECTION FIRING OVER IN SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE SW OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE KFDY AND KMFD A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FURTHER OUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL QUIET ON THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
KICK UP SOME WINDS. SO WILL KEEP WAVES AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT ON THE
LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1253 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL AT 1630Z
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND SREF PROJECTIONS
INDICATING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE MENTION
OF LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO WATCHING AREA OF SHRA OVER SRN MI WHICH IF CONTINUING WOULD
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NRN OH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ADDED THE SLGT
CHC POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT MAINLY NOT UNTIL AFT 22-23Z. THINKING
THAT THUNDER WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY WITH SHRA TO THE
NORTH...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
EXPECT FOR TODAY THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE TODAY WITH
CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHILE
AFTERNOON CAPES IN NRN OHIO WILL TOP OUT AT 1000J/KG. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ORIGINAL...NAM12 SHOWS A LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. SREF BEINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THIS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW AS WARM FRONT/TRIGGER WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NAM12 SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL TURN WARM AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS
THE FRONTS IN THE AREA WILL CHANCE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
TRIM POPS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING CHANCE POPS ONLY FAR SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND HEAT DOMINATE THE REGION. A SEMI BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE BIT OF MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND EXPECTING VFR ALL AREAS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND TRY TO
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT
MANSFIELD AND AKRON CANTON.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL QUIET ON THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
KICK UP SOME WINDS. SO WILL KEEP WAVES AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT ON THE
LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT THIS TIME ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST WITH THE SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR TRYING TO DEVELOP A AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MI AND THEN TRACK IT OVER LAKE ERIE AND INTO
NE OH LATE THIS AFTN. LATEST 09Z SREF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING ANY CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST.
HOWEVER...WILL LOOK AT THIS AND MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IF
NECESSARY FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES OTHERWISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
EXPECT FOR TODAY THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE TODAY WITH
CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHILE
AFTERNOON CAPES IN NRN OHIO WILL TOP OUT AT 1000J/KG. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ORIGINAL...NAM12 SHOWS A LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. SREF BEINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THIS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW AS WARM FRONT/TRIGGER WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NAM12 SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL TURN WARM AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS
THE FRONTS IN THE AREA WILL CHANCE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
TRIM POPS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING CHANCE POPS ONLY FAR SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND HEAT DOMINATE THE REGION. A SEMI BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE BIT OF MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND EXPECTING VFR ALL AREAS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND TRY TO
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT
MANSFIELD AND AKRON CANTON.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL QUIET ON THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
KICK UP SOME WINDS. SO WILL KEEP WAVES AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT ON THE
LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK FROM THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
500 AM UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS DUE EAST OF CHARLESTON WHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. IN ADDITION...LINE OF
STORMS IS NOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. 05Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA DISSIPATING AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT STILL FELT THE NEED TO BUMP UP POPS IN
THIS AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO WV AND WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EARLY MORNING.
THE REGION WILL BE IN THE SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS AGAIN FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WITH
YET AGAIN ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON STORMS, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH GFS/NAM
INDICATING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 20-22C, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE KY/OH/WV TRI-STATE AREA TO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE CRW- HTS VCNTY ON WEST AS HEAT
INDICES WARM INTO THE 100-105 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT TRAIN OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO CONTINUE. TIMING AND
LOCATION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL COMPLEX IS VERY TOUGH. BLENDED TOWARDS
THE NAMDNG5...WHICH AT LEAST SHOWS SOME PROGRESSION OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW IN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT...AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CENTRAL US RIDGE
STAYING IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
HOT AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD ON PLACE OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH CWA STILL
POSSIBLE TO HANG ONTO 500MB FLOW...AND THUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
THEREFORE...PATTERN WILL LINGER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
HOT WEATHER IN PLACE...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CARRYING THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAYS BUT NOT ELIMINATING
THEM AT NIGHT. NO RELIEF IN SIGHT WITH THE TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MRNG OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OHIO...TO THE NORTH OF STALLED SFC BOUNDARY...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT. MENTION OF
MORNING PCPN WL THUS BE INCLUDED IN HTS AND CRW TAFS IN THE FORM OF
TEMPO GROUPS.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MVFR...AND ISOLATED IFR IF FOG WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY IMPOSE MORE RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MEDIUM.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR WVZ005>007-013>015-024>026.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR OHZ086-087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RG
NEAR TERM...RES/TAG
SHORT TERM...RES
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
152 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ALONG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WHILE THE PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED IN THE VCNTY OF THE OHIO RIVER
THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. BASED ON LATEST RAP AND PWAT
FIELDS...CONVECTION SHOULD END ACRS CENTRAL OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE RAP INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION ACRS CNTRL IL AND SW INDIANA MAY FESTER AS IT TRAVERSES
SE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. SEVERE THREAT
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR.
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING...WENT WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS NOON TO 8 PM FOR HAMILTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...AND
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. HAVE CHANCE POPS
ON MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC TUE AND WED AFTN WITH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING A LTL EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PRECIP ON THURSDAY BUT DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING
HAVE KEPT REGION DRY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER
EAST AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FCST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO HEATING. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BY NIGHTFALL THEY WILL GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES. A BOUNDARY IS NOTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO WRN OHIO FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE LATER TODAY
AND POSSIBLY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HARD PRESSED TO SHOW A CLEAR SIGN THAT
STORMS WILL FIRE AND WHEN/IF THEY DO JUST EXACTLY WHERE.
WILL MONITOR THE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THAT
IS OVER ILLINOIS AND FOCUSED ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS POSITIONED
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS CINCINNATI METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ042-051>055-060-062>064-070>073-078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR OHZ061-077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
857 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM NIGHT AHEAD. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
STRUGGLING AND WANTED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND CHAMBERLAIN AT
0Z... CAPPING WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. CONVECTION IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD LEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SEVERE IF IT DID.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING SLOWED THE DIURNAL
DROP A BIT WHICH KEPT FAIRLY TOASTY READINGS IN THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH BARELY SNEAKING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA
AT 2Z...SO THE MODELS PROJECTION FOR IT TO LEAK SOUTH ANOTHER 40 OR
50 MILES AT BEST SEEMS REASONABLE. FAIRLY BEEFY DEW POINTS IN
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SO DEW POINTS COULD CLIMB PRETTY QUICKLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHEREVER THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP IN THE MORNING.
REGARDLESS OF THIS VERY WARM TONIGHT AND HOT AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
WITHOUT THE ADDED MIXING EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT TODAY
SHOULD BE LESS READINGS OVER 100 BUT MORE THAN LIKELY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND LIGHTER WINDS SO PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE ON TUESDAY. /08
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 04/00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST FROM WEST TO EAST AS A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
HEAT CONTINUING...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED.
WITHOUT CONVECTION...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 925 HPA TEMPS REMAINING NEAR 30C. WITH
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA...IT MIGHT BRING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF
TO THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA TOMORROW...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS RIDGE
ALOFT HOLDS STRONG. HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY FLY IS SMOKE FROM FIRES TO THE
WEST. IF FAIRLY THICK...THEN HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER.
WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT ISSUE IS
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
INTO FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CAPPED...BUT CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO THE NORTH
THAT A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THIS
FRONT WITH EC FURTHER NORTH AS IT HOLD RIDGE ALOFT WHILE BOTH GFS
AND NAM SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SO WITH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT STRENGTH OF
RIDGE WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND MAINLY NOCTURNAL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS AND SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING FOR A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONGER WAVES TO DIVE ACROSS
CWA. SEVERE THREAT NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW...SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO FINALLY SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS CWA THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
050-052>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
UPDATE...
ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING EXACTLY WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THUS
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO GO
WITH 102 DEGREES AT JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND JACKSON. WILL BUMP
TUPELO UP TO 104 DEGREES. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO
WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS BUT LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRING IS SMALL.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND THE CONTINUED
HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH MS...BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. SW-W WINDS 7-10 KTS TODAY...5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 102 79 98 77 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 102 73 98 70 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 102 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 104 76 99 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE VERSUS
YESTERDAY WITH A PWAT OF 1.68 INCHES. THEREFORE...DESPITE
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100S WILL
ALLOW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AROUND ALL THREE AIRPORTS. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA
AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM OUR CWA IN A
SEMICIRCULAR ARC FROM NORTH TO EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MID
STATE...IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CSV LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AT ALL THREE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STARTING TO TRICKLE IN, WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY THAN
BEFORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE FRI.
HIGH TEMP TRENDS FOLLOW THIS TREND...BNA FRI 109F...BNA SAT 107F AND
BNA TODAY EXPECTED 104. CURRENTLY THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
GA/SC BORDER ATTM. MODELS DRIFT IT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS. AS NOTED ABOVE TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW THIS TEND AND DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MON AND MID 90S BEYOND THAT. OF COURSE THAT
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE HOLDING ON TO HEAT ADVISORY PAST ITS EXPIRATION
TIME OF 7 PM THIS EVENING...BUT DAYSHIFT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
WHEN 12Z MODEL DATA ARRIVES.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS NOTED FORMING OVER THE MIDWEST AND DROPPING
SEWD AS UPPER FLOW TURNS TO LIGHT NWLY BY LATE MON AFTN. GFS
DEEPENS THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY ON TUE. ECM ONLY HINTS AT THIS
FEATURE. THUS I HAVE A 20 POP FOR THE PLATEAU ON MON AND A 20 POP
IN ALL AREAS FOR TUE AND BEYOND.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...MODELS KEEP A STRONG RIDGE GENERALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVER THE MIDSTATE. THIS
PATTERN BRINGS A WEAK SFC FRONT (BACK DOOR) SWD FROM THE OH
VALLEY LATE THU (ON THE GFS ANYWAY). WEAK DISSIPATING FRONT SORT
OF LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOTICED THAT THE 8-14 DAY PROG FROM CPC INDICATES THAT WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY GET BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT...ASSUMING YOUR CROPS DON`T DIE
FIRST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-022>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1053 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING EXACTLY WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THUS
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO GO
WITH 102 DEGREES AT JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND JACKSON. WILL BUMP
TUPELO UP TO 104 DEGREES. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO
WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS BUT LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRING IS SMALL.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND THE CONTINUED
HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (01/12-02/12Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW TSRA MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MS AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SW-W WINDS 7-10 KTS TODAY...5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
JCL
&&
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
603 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND
THE CONTINUED HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (01/12-02/12Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW TSRA MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MS AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SW-W WINDS 7-10 KTS TODAY...5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 100 79 98 77 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 100 73 98 70 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 101 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 102 76 99 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND
THE CONTINUED HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WEST
WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND UP TO 10 KNOTS TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 100 79 98 77 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 100 73 98 70 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 101 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 102 76 99 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
920 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL VORTEX NEAR KAUFMAN COUNTY CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DROP POPS
TO 10 PERCENT AS MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS...DONT THINK WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS PLACED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN
NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES RECORDED. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
BEFORE OR NEAR SUNSET.
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN SLIDE BACK
WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN. WITH THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...HAVE
INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN OF
ACTIVITY WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY ALSO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS START TO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYING OUT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND OR BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...STARTING ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THIS
BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 95 78 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
WACO, TX 78 96 77 97 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 72 94 73 95 74 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 77 95 75 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 76 95 75 97 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 79 95 79 99 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 78 95 75 96 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 94 75 95 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 94 73 95 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 95 73 98 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
643 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS...DONT THINK WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS PLACED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN
NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES RECORDED. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
BEFORE OR NEAR SUNSET.
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN SLIDE BACK
WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN. WITH THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...HAVE
INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN OF
ACTIVITY WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY ALSO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS START TO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYING OUT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND OR BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...STARTING ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THIS
BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 95 78 98 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
WACO, TX 77 96 77 97 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 72 94 73 95 74 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 76 95 75 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 74 95 75 97 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 77 95 79 99 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 75 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 94 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 73 94 73 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 95 73 98 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
445 AM PDT Sun Jul 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue today for the
Idaho Panhandle and far eastern reaches of Washington. Drier
conditions are expected Monday with the next weather system bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
Winds will be gusty on Tuesday. A more summer like pattern is
possible for the end of next week with a warming trend expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday and Sunday night: The main focus through today will be on
the ongoing thunderstorm threat. As of 2AM...showers and isolated
thunderstorms continued to develop along a 850-700mb boundary
which separates the deeper moisture and instability along a line
from northeastern Oregon to northwestern Montana...slicing through
the communities of Mullan...Nez Perce...and Anatone. To the east
and south of this boundary, the atmosphere is rather unstable with
700-500mb lapse rates on the order of 7-8C/km with 0-6km shear
near 50kts. This has lead to a isolated strong cells capable of
small to moderate hail...frequent lightning...gusty winds...and
heavy downpours. Behind this frontal boundary...there is a vort
max lifting through the Northern Mountains of WA which is where we
find the second cluster of showers...but little in the way of
thunder so far. The 06z NAM is handling the situation well and was
utilized through early morning which would suggest perhaps an
isolated strike along the Canadian Border...but by far...the most
active area along to just south of the aforementioned frontal
boundary.
Forcing along the frontal boundary will be loss early Sunday as the
front weakens and slips toward the east. The thunderstorm threat
will then become more diurnally driven and the trends in surface
or boundary layer dewpoints will be the challenge of the day. As
of 1AM...the greatest surface drying was noted along the East Slopes
and into the Wenatchee Area with dewpoints across a majority of
Ern WA and N ID still in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s. Models
are in decent agreement that incr westerly flow this afternoon
will bring a drying trend (sfc dewpoints) from west to east but
timing will be critical. 12km NAM and HRRR suggest the drying will
not punch into the Spokane-Pullman area until after 21z leading to
impressive...uncapped surface based CAPE sprawled across the
eastern third of WA...into portions of the ID Panhandle arnd
18-21z with values on the order of 600-1000 J/kg. This assumes
given surface temperatures warm to a very reachable 70F...which is
more likely along and west of the current pcpn axis stretching
along the southeastern zones. Consequently, this would suggest the
thunderstorm threat will arrive early in the afternoon for
locations like Spokane...Pullman...and Colville then decrease into
the late afternoon and evening as drier dewpoints expand from the
Wenatchee area and western Basin toward the WA/ID border. Given
the slower drying into the Idaho Panhandle...the threat for
thunderstorms will likely linger into the more typically 6-8pm
hours...however coverage will likely become more isolated with
time. 0-6km shear will be on the order of 35-40kts...still
indicating the potential for organized updrafts. Soundings
continue to show CAPE extending into the hail growth zone with
wetbulb zero heights <10k...so did include small hail wording with
the potential for an isolated storm over the ID Panhandle to
produce larger hail. Given the drying the lower levels in
comparison to yesterday`s environment...there is slightly higher
chance for gusty winds with stronger downdrafts or collapsing
cells and also introduced gusty winds after 21z.
Storms should quickly dissipate tomorrow evening with the loss
of heating and continued advection of drier air from the west. The
region will be in between storm systems and skies are expected to
be clear through much of Sunday night. Patchy fog will be possible
across the sheltered northern Valleys...pending they receive pcpn
from afternoon convection. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
warmer across the west and similar to slightly cooler east. /sb
Monday and Tuesday...Model agreement is good in continuing the
progressive summer pattern through the region with another short
wave dropping down the Canadian coastal region and promoting
southwest flow aloft over the forecast area ahead of this latest
wave. For the most part...Monday will be a dry and benign break
period with temperatures warming up over Sunday by a few degrees
in this warm advection pattern. All of the latest models do draw
some pre-trough moisture up from Oregon and focus it over the
southeast zones and Idaho Panhandle late Monday and Monday night.
Surface based instability is anemic...with model soundings
indicating a layer of CIN that will need to be dealt with before
any appreciable risk of convection over the Palouse and
panhandle Monday afternoon...however the trough is shaping up to
focus some dynamic support there and overnight will likely be
able to work with elevated instability to generate showers and
thunderstorms. Inherited low pops have been significantly
increased given the latest model runs in strong agreement
depicting nocturnal activity potential over this area.
Tuesday will bring the next significant short wave passage and it
increasingly appears the main issue will be winds with only minor
nuisance showers and maybe a mountain thunderstorm or two during
the afternoon and evening hours. The upper shortwave will swale
through the region Tuesday morning and push some cool advection
into the forecast area likely promoting breezy to low end windy
conditions near the Cascades and breezy and gusty conditions over
most of the Columbia Basin. Temperatures in the wake of this
mainly dry cool front will decrease a few degrees over Monday`s
highs. This developing situation will need to be monitored for possible
fire weather issues.
Wednesday through Saturday...It appears the progressive wave laden
pattern of the last week will calm down into a more traditional
warm and dry pattern from Wednesday onward. The broad central USA
ridge/upper high which is currently baking the mid-west will
assert it`s influence westward and begin to allow sustained
increasingly southerly flow into the forecast area. This spells
dry and increasingly warm for the later part of the extended
period. Way out on days 6 or 7 there is a possibility of some
monsoonal moisture being drawn into this flow...but at this time
there is no compelling reason to expect it. Dry and increasingly
hot looks like the way to play the far periods at this time. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: The weather will remain active through 03z Monday. A
stalled frontal boundary is focusing showers and isold -tsra frm NE
OR to NW MT...just south of KLWS. Meanwhile...moist s flow has lead
to incr IFR/MVFR stratus across the upper Columbia Basin including
Spokane to CDA. Models are in good agreement that the low clouds
will clear arnd 18-19z however very little heating today will
trigger an early start to -shra and isold -tsra east of KMWH. Isold
-tsra btwn 22-03z will have the potential to produce small hail
and gusty winds. Drier...breezy conditions are expected over the
Cascade East Slopes and western Columbia Basin including KEAT-KMWH.
All convective activity is expected to wane aft 03z with clearing
skies and slight potential for patchy fg north and east of
Spokane-CDA. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 77 53 79 55 74 49 / 60 20 0 10 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 75 52 78 54 72 48 / 60 40 0 20 20 10
Pullman 74 49 79 51 72 46 / 50 40 0 20 20 10
Lewiston 83 57 87 59 82 56 / 50 30 0 20 20 10
Colville 81 52 80 53 76 49 / 60 40 0 10 20 10
Sandpoint 75 50 76 51 71 44 / 80 50 10 30 30 10
Kellogg 75 50 79 53 72 49 / 80 50 10 40 40 10
Moses Lake 84 54 83 56 82 52 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
Wenatchee 84 56 82 57 79 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 83 53 81 54 80 49 / 30 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
234 AM PDT Sun Jul 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue today for the
Idaho Panhandle and far eastern reaches of Washington. Drier
conditions are expected Monday with the next weather system bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
Winds will be gusty on Tuesday. A more summer like pattern is
possible for the end of next week with a warming trend expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday and Sunday night: The main focus through today will be on
the ongoing thunderstorm threat. As of 2AM...showers and isolated
thunderstorms continued to develop along a 850-700mb boundary
which separates the deeper moisture and instability along a line
from northeastern Oregon to northwestern Montana...slicing through
the communities of Mullan...Nez Perce...and Anatone. To the east
and south of this boundary, the atmosphere is rather unstable with
700-500mb lapse rates on the order of 7-8C/km with 0-6km shear
near 50kts. This has lead to a isolated strong cells capable of
small to moderate hail...frequent lightning...gusty winds...and
heavy downpours. Behind this frontal boundary...there is a vort
max lifting through the Northern Mountains of WA which is where we
find the second cluster of showers...but little in the way of
thunder so far. The 06z NAM is handling the situation well and was
utilized through early morning which would suggest perhaps an
isolated strike along the Canadian Border...but by far...the most
active area along to just south of the aforementioned frontal
boundary.
Forcing along the frontal boundary will be loss early Sunday as the
front weakens and slips toward the east. The thunderstorm threat
will then become more diurnally driven and the trends in surface
or boundary layer dewpoints will be the challenge of the day. As
of 1AM...the greatest surface drying was noted along the East Slopes
and into the Wenatchee Area with dewpoints across a majority of
Ern WA and N ID still in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s. Models
are in decent agreement that incr westerly flow this afternoon
will bring a drying trend (sfc dewpoints) from west to east but
timing will be critical. 12km NAM and HRRR suggest the drying will
not punch into the Spokane-Pullman area until after 21z leading to
impressive...uncapped surface based CAPE sprawled across the
eastern third of WA...into portions of the ID Panhandle arnd
18-21z with values on the order of 600-1000 J/kg. This assumes
given surface temperatures warm to a very reachable 70F...which is
more likely along and west of the current pcpn axis stretching
along the southeastern zones. Consequently, this would suggest the
thunderstorm threat will arrive early in the afternoon for
locations like Spokane...Pullman...and Colville then decrease into
the late afternoon and evening as drier dewpoints expand from the
Wenatchee area and western Basin toward the WA/ID border. Given
the slower drying into the Idaho Panhandle...the threat for
thunderstorms will likely linger into the more typically 6-8pm
hours...however coverage will likely become more isolated with
time. 0-6km shear will be on the order of 35-40kts...still
indicating the potential for organized updrafts. Soundings
continue to show CAPE extending into the hail growth zone with
wetbulb zero heights <10k...so did include small hail wording with
the potential for an isolated storm over the ID Panhandle to
produce larger hail. Given the drying the lower levels in
comparison to yesterday`s environment...there is slightly higher
chance for gusty winds with stronger downdrafts or collapsing
cells and also introduced gusty winds after 21z.
Storms should quickly dissipate tomorrow evening with the loss
of heating and continued advection of drier air from the west. The
region will be in between storm systems and skies are expected to
be clear through much of Sunday night. Patchy fog will be possible
across the sheltered northern Valleys...pending they receive pcpn
from afternoon convection. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
warmer across the west and similar to slightly cooler east. /sb
Monday and Tuesday...Model agreement is good in continuing the
progressive summer pattern through the region with another short
wave dropping down the Canadian coastal region and promoting
southwest flow aloft over the forecast area ahead of this latest
wave. For the most part...Monday will be a dry and benign break
period with temperatures warming up over Sunday by a few degrees
in this warm advection pattern. All of the latest models do draw
some pre-trough moisture up from Oregon and focus it over the
southeast zones and Idaho Panhandle late Monday and Monday night.
Surface based instability is anemic...with model soundings
indicating a layer of CIN that will need to be dealt with before
any appreciable risk of convection over the Palouse and
panhandle Monday afternoon...however the trough is shaping up to
focus some dynamic support there and overnight will likely be
able to work with elevated instability to generate showers and
thunderstorms. Inherited low pops have been significantly
increased given the latest model runs in strong agreement
depicting nocturnal activity potential over this area.
Tuesday will bring the next significant short wave passage and it
increasingly appears the main issue will be winds with only minor
nuisance showers and maybe a mountain thunderstorm or two during
the afternoon and evening hours. The upper shortwave will swale
through the region Tuesday morning and push some cool advection
into the forecast area likely promoting breezy to low end windy
conditions near the Cascades and breezy and gusty conditions over
most of the Columbia Basin. Temperatures in the wake of this
mainly dry cool front will decrease a few degrees over Monday`s
highs. This developing situation will need to be monitored for possible
fire weather issues.
Wednesday through Saturday...It appears the progressive wave laden
pattern of the last week will calm down into a more traditional
warm and dry pattern from Wednesday onward. The broad central USA
ridge/upper high which is currently baking the mid-west will
assert it`s influence westward and begin to allow sustained
increasingly southerly flow into the forecast area. This spells
dry and increasingly warm for the later part of the extended
period. Way out on days 6 or 7 there is a possibility of some
monsoonal moisture being drawn into this flow...but at this time
there is no compelling reason to expect it. Dry and increasingly
hot looks like the way to play the far periods at this time. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: As of 06z, the mid level front had pushed through
northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Some convection
lingered in the Lewiston and Pullman areas along the 700mb thermal
axis. This baroclinic region will push eastward overnight bringing
a decrease in the shower activity at the Lewiston, Pullman,
Spokane and Coeur D`Alene airports. A redevelopment of showers is
expected between 18-20z on Sunday as the atmosphere will be
largely uncapped. Some thunderstorms Sunday afternoon may be
capable of small hail and torrential rainfall over the Idaho
Panhandle and far northeast Washington. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 77 53 79 55 74 49 / 60 20 0 10 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 75 52 78 54 72 48 / 60 40 0 20 20 10
Pullman 74 49 79 51 72 46 / 50 40 0 20 20 10
Lewiston 83 57 87 59 82 56 / 50 30 0 20 20 10
Colville 81 52 80 53 76 49 / 60 40 0 10 20 10
Sandpoint 75 50 76 51 71 44 / 80 50 10 30 30 10
Kellogg 75 50 79 53 72 49 / 80 50 10 40 40 10
Moses Lake 84 54 83 56 82 52 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
Wenatchee 84 56 82 57 79 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 83 53 81 54 80 49 / 30 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SEVERE WITH MAINLY HAIL FIRED UP ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
NEW LONDON TO SHAWANO. ANTICIPATE MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THIS
SAME VICINITY THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS THESE STORMS TRACK FURTHER
EAST...RADAR IS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND.
TDH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
COMBINATION OF WARM FROM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...INCREASING INSTABLITY AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM MINNESOTA HAVE COMBINED
TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE FOX VALLEY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRYING TO INITIATE NEAR
THE WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF WAUSHARA NORTH TO SOUTHERN SHAWANO
COUNTIES. HRRR HAS ALSO HINTED AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORMING IN
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
WAUSAU NORTH TO RHINELANDER. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...THEN DIMINSH AFTER SUNSET.
BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS OFFER
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR MCS INITIATION OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD PROPAGATION
THEREAFTER. ACTIVTY IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING...BUT SUSPECT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
...ACTIVITY SHOULD GET ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
ANY MCS THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED WILL LIKELY HEAD ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PERHAPS TURN MORE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOX VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TAPPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MCS ACTIVITY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY MET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN COORDINATIN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES OPTED
TO START EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND PCPN CHANCES...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 95-105 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. FOR PROLONGED EVENTS OF 4 DAYS OR LONGER...WE LOWER
THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TO 95+...WHICH MAKES THE ISSUANCE OF
AN ADVISORY AN EASIER CALL. RIGHT NOW...THE HOTTEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE THURSDAY...WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO
100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF C/EC/NE WI. FORTUNATELY DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE SANDY SOIL LOCATIONS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY ARE WARMEST SPOTS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR HEAT INDICES MAINLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND
GENERALLY COVER AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO SHAWANO TO
GREEN BAY...EXCLUDING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
OUR BEST PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW AND WEAK...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AT 925/850
MB. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...
BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...THINK THAT OUR CURRENT 20-30 POPS
WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES FROM WEDS THROUGH
THU NGT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CHANCE
POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE SECOND FROPA ON FRI/FRI NGT...WITH
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS WITH
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ISOLATED STORMS.
TDH
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>039-045-
048-049.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IF
ANY CONVECTION COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....RIDGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A
NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
FARGO ND TO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN LAST EVENING.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...WITH NOW JUST A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ATMOSPHERE AT MPX AND GRB STILL FAIRLY DRY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH. HEAD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...THE
WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF 70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE ANYWHERE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.6 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATTENTION REMAINS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO
IT. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING OUT.
THIS RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...ALLOWING THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SPEED THAT THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON...LIFTING TO
NEAR DES MOINES BY 00Z AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER MUCH
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. 01.00Z NAM/ECMWF/NSSL WRF AND HIRESW-ARW
MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT SOME 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...0-6KM
AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT BEST IS 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...THINKING MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE. SUPPOSE THERE MIGHT BE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM...BUT WITH THE SHEAR OVERALL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR SEVERE. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT YIELDS CONCERN FOR
MORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL...THE 01.00Z GFS...NAM...UKMET AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW REALLY
ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. NOR DOES
THERE SEEM TO BE ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. THERE IS SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-800MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME SPLIT ON MODELS TO PRODUCE
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE 01.00Z ECMWF...HIRESW-ARW AND NSSL WRF
DO NOT DEVELOP...WHEREAS THE 01.00Z NAM...GFS AND REGIONAL
CANADIAN DO. FEEL THE SCENARIO IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES...6000-7000 FT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS. USING THESE
BASES...LOOKING AT A 1-3KM OR 1-6KM SHEAR...THE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KT PER THE NAM. AS SUCH...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING
FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO DAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY (AROUND 20C)...SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR HIGHS. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...THOUGH...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN IOWA BEGIN ADVECTING NORTH. STILL...THE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WARMER NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH MAY BEGIN
TO FLATTEN OUT AS THE PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING INSTABILITY ON MONDAY ON THE FRONT AND
THE AIRMASS STILL NOT CAPPED MAY ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
IT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY AND NEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES
ALL DAY. NOTE THAT THERE ARE STILL DRY MODELS OUT THERE...SUCH AS
THE 01.00Z HIRESW-ARW. THE CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY EVERYWHERE...
WITH ANY CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE UP TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONVECTION MAKES HIGHS A LITTLE TRICKY ON MONDAY. WARMER 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 22C WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY...BUT
AGAIN CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THIS. FOR NOW STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE INDICES SHOULD BE AROUND 100. WITH
THE WARM FRONT BLOWING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE
70S MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP HOW MODELS
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
DAYS. THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM REMAIN ADAMANT THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR...CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONLY
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP AT MOST DOWN TO WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NOT SURE IF THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MATTER
MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTH. COMBINE THE FACT THAT CAPPING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...NOTED BY 12C 700MB TEMPS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE. ONLY KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...HEAT IS THE BIG DEAL WITH MORE SUN LIKELY AND 850MB
TEMPS PERHAPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 24C. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME
IN-LINE WITH MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...4TH OF JULY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
BIG STORY REMAINS THE HEAT.
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALL MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. BY 00Z FRIDAY...
500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1.5-2 ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS COMES A HEAT SURGE WITH
IT...SUCH THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS OF SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAISED HIGHS THESE DAYS TO COME CLOSER IN-LINE WITH THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE AND A 30-DAY CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE 4TH OF
JULY IS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE INCREASING RIDGING...INTERACTING
WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME LATER FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
HOW MUCH CONVECTION MIGHT BE ON THE FRONT. IN FACT...MAY END UP
BEING ALL POST-FRONTAL IF AT ALL GIVEN CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOO TO WORK
OUT...WITH THE 01.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN.
HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ON DEWPOINTS AS SOME OF THE
FORECASTED HEAT INDICES GET CLOSE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. IF DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...WHICH GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT-TYPE SITUATION WOULD NOT THINK WOULD HAPPEN...HEAT
INDICES WILL CROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO IL. MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT...EXTENDING BASICALLY ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING
MONDAY. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT FORCING EXPECTED
TO KICK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE HIGHER-BASED WITH CEILINGS AOA 5KFT. BASED ON INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SIGNAL...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS IN THE KRST TAF
SITE AFTER 22Z AND AT KLSE AFTER 01Z. BULK OF SCATTERED SHRA/TS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL IN
THE 5-6SM RANGE TOWARD MORNING WITH MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. NOT
CONFIDENT AS TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST OF THE KLSE TAF SITE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...CLEARED VCTS AT KLSE
AFTER 09Z WITH ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER THAN LIGHT
FOG...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IF
ANY CONVECTION COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....RIDGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A
NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
FARGO ND TO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN LAST EVENING.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...WITH NOW JUST A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ATMOSPHERE AT MPX AND GRB STILL FAIRLY DRY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH. HEAD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...THE
WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF 70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE ANYWHERE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.6 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATTENTION REMAINS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO
IT. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING OUT.
THIS RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...ALLOWING THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SPEED THAT THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON...LIFTING TO
NEAR DES MOINES BY 00Z AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER MUCH
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. 01.00Z NAM/ECMWF/NSSL WRF AND HIRESW-ARW
MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT SOME 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...0-6KM
AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT BEST IS 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...THINKING MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE. SUPPOSE THERE MIGHT BE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM...BUT WITH THE SHEAR OVERALL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR SEVERE. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT YIELDS CONCERN FOR
MORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL...THE 01.00Z GFS...NAM...UKMET AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW REALLY
ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. NOR DOES
THERE SEEM TO BE ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. THERE IS SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-800MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME SPLIT ON MODELS TO PRODUCE
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE 01.00Z ECMWF...HIRESW-ARW AND NSSL WRF
DO NOT DEVELOP...WHEREAS THE 01.00Z NAM...GFS AND REGIONAL
CANADIAN DO. FEEL THE SCENARIO IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES...6000-7000 FT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS. USING THESE
BASES...LOOKING AT A 1-3KM OR 1-6KM SHEAR...THE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KT PER THE NAM. AS SUCH...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING
FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO DAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY (AROUND 20C)...SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR HIGHS. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...THOUGH...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN IOWA BEGIN ADVECTING NORTH. STILL...THE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WARMER NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH MAY BEGIN
TO FLATTEN OUT AS THE PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING INSTABILITY ON MONDAY ON THE FRONT AND
THE AIRMASS STILL NOT CAPPED MAY ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
IT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY AND NEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES
ALL DAY. NOTE THAT THERE ARE STILL DRY MODELS OUT THERE...SUCH AS
THE 01.00Z HIRESW-ARW. THE CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY EVERYWHERE...
WITH ANY CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE UP TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONVECTION MAKES HIGHS A LITTLE TRICKY ON MONDAY. WARMER 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 22C WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY...BUT
AGAIN CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THIS. FOR NOW STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE INDICES SHOULD BE AROUND 100. WITH
THE WARM FRONT BLOWING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE
70S MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP HOW MODELS
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
DAYS. THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM REMAIN ADAMANT THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TORUGH WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR...CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONLY
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP AT MOST DOWN TO WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NOT SURE IF THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MATTER
MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTH. COMBINE THE FACT THAT CAPPING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...NOTED BY 12C 700MB TEMPS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE. ONLY KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...HEAT IS THE BIG DEAL WITH MORE SUN LIKELY AND 850MB
TEMPS PERHAPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 24C. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME
IN-LINE WITH MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...4TH OF JULY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
BIG STORY REMAINS THE HEAT.
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALL MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. BY 00Z FRIDAY...
500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1.5-2 ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS COMES A HEAT SURGE WITH
IT...SUCH THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS OF SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAISED HIGHS THESE DAYS TO COME CLOSER IN-LINE WITH THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE AND A 30-DAY CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE 4TH OF
JULY IS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE INCREASING RIDGING...INTERACTING
WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME LATER FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
HOW MUCH CONVECTION MIGHT BE ON THE FRONT. IN FACT...MAY END UP
BEING ALL POST-FRONTAL IF AT ALL GIVEN CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOO TO WORK
OUT...WITH THE 01.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN.
HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ON DEWPOINTS AS SOME OF THE
FORECASTED HEAT INDICES GET CLOSE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. IF DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...WHICH GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT-TYPE SITUATION WOULD NOT THINK WOULD HAPPEN...HEAT
INDICES WILL CROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
KARX RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED ECHOS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THERE HAS BEEN NO INDICATION IN THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING AND AS THIS OCCURS...THE CLOUDS AND RADAR ECHOS
SHOULD DISSIPATE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS IOWA. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR. FINALLY...THE GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO GO DRY AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IF
ANY CONVECTION COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....RIDGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A
NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
FARGO ND TO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN LAST EVENING.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...WITH NOW JUST A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ATMOSPHERE AT MPX AND GRB STILL FAIRLY DRY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH. HEAD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...THE
WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF 70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE ANYWHERE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.6 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATTENTION REMAINS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO
IT. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING OUT.
THIS RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...ALLOWING THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SPEED THAT THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON...LIFTING TO
NEAR DES MOINES BY 00Z AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER MUCH
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. 01.00Z NAM/ECMWF/NSSL WRF AND HIRESW-ARW
MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT SOME 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...0-6KM
AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT BEST IS 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...THINKING MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE. SUPPOSE THERE MIGHT BE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM...BUT WITH THE SHEAR OVERALL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR SEVERE. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT YIELDS CONCERN FOR
MORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL...THE 01.00Z GFS...NAM...UKMET AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW REALLY
ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. NOR DOES
THERE SEEM TO BE ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. THERE IS SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-800MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME SPLIT ON MODELS TO PRODUCE
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE 01.00Z ECMWF...HIRESW-ARW AND NSSL WRF
DO NOT DEVELOP...WHEREAS THE 01.00Z NAM...GFS AND REGIONAL
CANADIAN DO. FEEL THE SCENARIO IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES...6000-7000 FT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS. USING THESE
BASES...LOOKING AT A 1-3KM OR 1-6KM SHEAR...THE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KT PER THE NAM. AS SUCH...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING
FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO DAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY (AROUND 20C)...SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR HIGHS. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...THOUGH...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN IOWA BEGIN ADVECTING NORTH. STILL...THE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WARMER NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH MAY BEGIN
TO FLATTEN OUT AS THE PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING INSTABILITY ON MONDAY ON THE FRONT AND
THE AIRMASS STILL NOT CAPPED MAY ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
IT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY AND NEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES
ALL DAY. NOTE THAT THERE ARE STILL DRY MODELS OUT THERE...SUCH AS
THE 01.00Z HIRESW-ARW. THE CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY EVERYWHERE...
WITH ANY CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE UP TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONVECTION MAKES HIGHS A LITTLE TRICKY ON MONDAY. WARMER 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 22C WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY...BUT
AGAIN CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THIS. FOR NOW STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE INDICES SHOULD BE AROUND 100. WITH
THE WARM FRONT BLOWING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE
70S MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP HOW MODELS
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
DAYS. THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM REMAIN ADAMANT THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TORUGH WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR...CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONLY
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP AT MOST DOWN TO WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NOT SURE IF THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MATTER
MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTH. COMBINE THE FACT THAT CAPPING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...NOTED BY 12C 700MB TEMPS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE. ONLY KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...HEAT IS THE BIG DEAL WITH MORE SUN LIKELY AND 850MB
TEMPS PERHAPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 24C. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME
IN-LINE WITH MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...4TH OF JULY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
BIG STORY REMAINS THE HEAT.
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALL MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. BY 00Z FRIDAY...
500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1.5-2 ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS COMES A HEAT SURGE WITH
IT...SUCH THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS OF SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAISED HIGHS THESE DAYS TO COME CLOSER IN-LINE WITH THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE AND A 30-DAY CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE 4TH OF
JULY IS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE INCREASING RIDGING...INTERACTING
WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME LATER FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
HOW MUCH CONVECTION MIGHT BE ON THE FRONT. IN FACT...MAY END UP
BEING ALL POST-FRONTAL IF AT ALL GIVEN CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOO TO WORK
OUT...WITH THE 01.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN.
HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ON DEWPOINTS AS SOME OF THE
FORECASTED HEAT INDICES GET CLOSE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. IF DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...WHICH GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT-TYPE SITUATION WOULD NOT THINK WOULD HAPPEN...HEAT
INDICES WILL CROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105.
&&
.AVIATION...
1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...ON THE NOSE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SOME ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KRST/KLSE AFTER 09Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MPX/DVN CONTINUE
TO POINT TO A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE THOUGH...AND THE STORMS
WOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THEY WOULD STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BE HIGH IN PCPN CHANCES TOO FAR OUTSIDE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONT ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN ILL.
MEANWHILE...A THIN LINE OF SHRA/TS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETIC BAND FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. THE LATEST
RAP SUGGESTS THAT THIS REGION OF FORCING WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. SO FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY...BUT THE
SHRA/TS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME 4-5SM BR/HZ.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST A BIT BY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING PROMOTING A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN TO KRST/KLSE AS THE WARM FRONT GETS A PUSH
NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WHERE THIS FRONT LIES SUNDAY NIGHT IS
NOT CERTAIN...SO NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A VCSH/VCTS INTO THE
FORECAST AS OF YET. FEEL THERE WILL BE A NEED TO ADD SOME PCPN
MENTION INTO THE TAFS SUN NIGHT-MON WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND OTHER WEATHER VARIABLES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND PRODUCE
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MINIMAL DAY TO DAY CHANGES
SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...THERE SHOULD BE A STRONGER ONSHORE TREND FOR TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD HELP THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING AROUND LAX WAS AROUND
1300 FT SO LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS LA COUNTY COASTAL
VALLEYS AND THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS CONFIDENT WITH VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS BASED ON THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS WHERE LA COUNTY SEEMED TO HAVE BETTER AREAL COVERAGE.
TODAY`S ONSHORE GRADIENTS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED...IN FACT
OVER 3 MB WEAKER THAN NAM-WRF WAS INDICATING...THEREFORE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS WERE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN MOST AREAS.
NAM-WRF MODELS WERE INDICATING LAX-DAG SFC GRADIENT TO BE AROUND
+9.5MB BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THIS IS WEAKER BY A COUPLE
OF MILLIBARS...THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY INCLUDING LAKE PALMDALE
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
EXPECT SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY WHERE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 90S.
SYNOPTICALLY IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A SMALL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF TO A VERY WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION
OFF SO CAL COAST TOMORROW AND STICK AROUND THROUGH WED HAVING VERY
LITTLE AFFECT TO THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO WED.
EARLIER RAP13 (FORMERLY RUC MODEL) RUNS INDICATED SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS
AND MORNING SOUNDING FROM VANDENBERG PICKED UP ON SOME LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW FLAT CU BUILDUPS OCCURRED AROUND
LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAT CU ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...12Z MODELS STILL ON BOARD WITH THE WARMING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US STARTS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
WARMER VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AS WELL. STILL A PRETTY DECENT
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO COASTS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY COOL BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH MINIMAL MARINE
LYR. MONSOON FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ON ARIZONA AND POINTS
EAST BUT MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA TO
WARRANT KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION TO SEE IF THE MONSOON
FRONT CREEPS FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. GIVEN THE WARMUP
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED MORE EASILY,
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...03/0540Z...
STRATUS STARTING TO FILL IN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND ACROSS THE
LAX BASIN. STRATUS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH KBUR/KVNY OVERNIGHT AND
WORK IT`S WAY UP TO KOXR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT MVFR/IFR
LEVELS. STRATUS BURNOFF TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY GOOD...ALTHOUGH
CLEARING COULD BE A BIT LIMITED FOR KLAX AND KOXR.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT
MVFR CIGS MAY NOT SCATTER OUT AT ALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE A
COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENT 12Z TAF.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRESTING THE RIDGE INTO SE MANITOBA AND THE ADJACENT PORTION OF NRN
ONTARIO HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER TSRA OVER THE NW CORNER OF MN. AT THE
SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH NRN MN INTO CNTRL WI FROM LOW
PRES OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA. HOT AND HUMID AIR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HAS PUSHED MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 3K-4K J/KG RANGE. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI AND FAR SRN UPPER MI BUT HAVE
ALSO DISSIPATED QUICKLY WHERE LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDEPSREAD COVERAGE.
TONIGHT...
MODELS WERE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL EXPAND OVER
NRN MN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS REMAIN ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND LOCATION/TRACK OF THE EXPECTED MCS
MOVING OUT OF NRN MN. WITH ANL ESE TRACK TO ANY MCS AND A
POSSIBLE FURTHER TURN TO THE SOUTH...PER FOREWARD PROPAGATION
CORFIDI VECTORS AND 850-300 EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 03Z-12Z. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH GREATEST CHANCE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FOR SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING...PER
SPC...GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING IN THE 2K-3K J/KG RANGE).
TUESDAY...REMAING SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
WITH COOLER AIR ONLY ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE ENHANCING 500MB LOWS OVER NE
HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND SW CANADA. A TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE E
CANADA LOW WILL BE JUST TO OUR E BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP SHOULD BE QUICKLY EXITING E AS THE SFC SHIFTS FROM S JAMES
BAY AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKING SE TO N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE HEAT TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT RESTS
OVER S LOWER MI AND WI TO THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SD. 850MB
TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH DURING THIS THEORETICAL COOL DONN
PERIOD...FROM 20C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UP TO AN AVERAGE 21C BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SFC. DEW POINTS SHOULD
CHANGE THOUGH...AND HAVE LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO LOOK AT FURTHER LOWERING FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
TIME NEARS.
EXPECT THE SFC HIGH TO EDGE E WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SWINGING OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND THE WARM
FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES...THEY REMAIN WEAK...WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC THROUGH
850MB...WITH LAKE BREEZES CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY...INLAND FROM AREAS
RIGHT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 22C BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE S FLOW...AND
WOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES /COOL DOWN/ OVER N CENTRAL UPPER
MI. HEAT INDEX VALUES/APPARENT TEMPS WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE 92 TO
99 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST WEST AND CENTRAL.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SINK TO OUR SE BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIP S DURING THE DAY AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM S CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT /DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO COOL OFF A BIT FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA LOOKED TO BE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY WRLY WINDS TO 30 MPH AT KSAW THROUGH 08Z. ANY LINGERING SHRA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND KIWD
THEREAFTER. IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KCMX SHOULD LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE. THERE COULD BE SOME MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING ALONG
CONVERGING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT KSAW IN TAF. WITH LINGERING MOIST
CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP AT KCMX LATER THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY LOWER VBSYS/CIGS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL TRHEAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS WITH AN MCS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. AREA OF FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
OTHERWISE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEK. THE COMING WEEKEND
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
ONLY HIGH BASED ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE COMMON OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR SHOWING A DECENT STORM WORKING
TOWARD BENZIE COUNTY...WHICH THEORETICALLY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
AS THIS STORM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN FEATURE HAS BEEN UPSTREAM WITH
BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER AND NE WISCONSIN. THIS
FEATURE HAD BEEN TRUCKING ALONG JUST FINE...PACKING WIND GUSTS
EASILY INTO THE 35-45MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS STABILIZED THE BL TO SOME DEGREE...AND THE STORM
SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING...WHILE ALSO DIVING SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT. THIS A BIT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE
NICE SHORTWAVE ALOFT HELPING TO DRIVE IT. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
EASTERN UP WILL BE IN FOR SOME RAIN AND THUNDER TONIGHT...BUT THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY IN FACT BE OUT TO OUR WEST...WHILE
WE JUST GET SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO ROLL THROUGH MAINLY THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS WRN UPR
MICHIGAN AND NE WISCONSIN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALIGNED ALONG
THE 850 MB THETA E AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS. EVEN FURTHER
UPSTREAM...IMPRESSIVE MCS/BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO IMPACT NRN
MINNESOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITHIN AN AREA OF MAX CAPE (AROUND 5000 J/KG).
CLOSER TO HOME...ANY ATTEMPS TO GENERATE EVEN THE WEAKEST
CONVECTION OVER OUR CWA HAVE FAILED THANKS TO A DECENT CAP
OVERHEAD PER 00Z APX SOUNDING. ALSO...SURFACE DWPTS WERE MAINLY IN
THE 50S MUCH OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING...BUT HAVE NOW SURGED
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND COOL FRONT. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED HIGHEST POPS/QPF WILL FOCUS
FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MIT
AS REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM MCS REACH OUR CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS WILL IMPACT MAINLY WRN SECTIONS OF OUR
CWA BEFORE THE MAIN MCS ARRIVES. HAVE MODIFIED WX/POPS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE. ANY
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STRONG/SVR WIND GUST/HAIL WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE AS WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
AND VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
KAPX RADAR REMAINS NEAR ECHO-FREE SO FAR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THE FAR ERN EDGE OF A LINE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ERN WISCONSIN IS JUST NOW STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE
LAST FEW BASE REF FRAMES. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS FEEDING OFF A
STRONG CONVERGENCE LINE ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZES AND FED BY 850 MB
THETA E AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS. THE LINE IS ACTUALLY MAKING
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS...BUT INSTEAD SEEMS TO CONTINUALLY BE
REFORMING RIGHT ALONG THE STAGNANT CONVERGENT/LAKE BREEZE LINE.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION
COULD REACH OUR SW CWA THIS EVENING...AND WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION
OF WX/POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. REST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY FOR THE EVENING...AS TEMPS FALL OUT OF THE 80S AND THRU THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS
ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ONE WAS OVER
EASTERN IOWA DRIFTING SOUTHEAST...THE SECOND WAS TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WERE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER...WHILE HIGH BASED CU HAS FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING
INLAND FROM LAKE HURON.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND IS OFTEN THE CASE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF THINGS WELL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT...FIRST IS WITH
VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AS IT IMPINGES
UPON 2500+J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING WEST OF GRB ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARCING WESTWARD. EVEN IF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP...INSTABILITY REALLY FALLS OFF THE TABLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL MOSTLY IN THE 50S...SO ITS NOT CLEAR IF
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER. REGARDLESS...LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT NUDGES EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.
MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS
EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PROPAGATING
TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY...WITH BIG TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY (OR IF) CLOUD COVER CAN THIN OUT. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY CENTER ACCOMPANYING THE PRECIP SHIELD
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHICH WOULD TEND TO KEEP SHOWERS/CLOUDS
HANGING ON FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY...AND TRY NOT TO GET TOO HUNG UP ON MESOSCALE SPECIFICS THIS
FAR OUT WITH RESPECT TO THINGS LIKE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISPOSITION.
WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPERATURES...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...
BUT WILL AVOID 90+ READINGS FOR NOW UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON
HEATING POTENTIAL (MCS CLOUD COVER THE USUAL CULPRIT BETWEEN A SUNNY
AND 92 DEGREE FORECAST VERSUS A CLOUDY/RAINY 75 DEGREE REALITY).
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS...CAN ENVISION AN INITIAL CONCERN
WITH THE LEADING EDGE CONVECTION OF MCS WHICH COULD CARRY A
LINGERING WIND THREAT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST LOWER??). BUT BEYOND THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE HOW AFTERNOON EVOLVES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN MICHIGAN MINI HEATWAVE STILL IN THE WORKS
THIS WEEK AS PLAINS HEAT DOME IS FORCED TO FOLD OVER THE REGION...
PUSHED ALONG BY ROUNDS OF ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. STILL
WELL AGREED UPON EVIDENCE OF PATTERN RETROGRESSION THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PLACING THE NORTH WOODS UNDER "COOLER"
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE DURATION ARE
TWO-FOLD...CENTERING ON PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES...AND PROBABLY MOST
IMPORTANTLY...JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
DECENT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWER AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG SOUTHWARD DROPPING
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/COOL FRONT (COLD POOL ENHANCED?). EXIT OF MID
LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND LOSS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY LIKELY TO KEEP COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IN CHECK. DEPENDING
ON YOUR TEMPERATURE TOLERANCE...4TH OF JULY SHAPING UP TO BE AN
EXCELLENT DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES AS PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS TUESDAY NIGHTS SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND MAINTENANCE OF OFF THE DECK
WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOCALES PUSHING 90 DEGREES OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. LIGHT WIND FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT... ALLOWING THE BIG LAKES REFRIGERATORS TO KEEP
SHORELINE COMMUNITIES A TOUCH COOLER.
HEAT TAKES CENTER STAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM HEAT DOME
FOLDS OVER...SPIKING 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S
CELSIUS. INCREASINGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS
DRY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SCRAPPING BY EASTERN
UPPER WHERE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WITH EVEN A FEW MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY IN THE
FAVORED WARMER LOCALES OF NORTHEAST LOWER. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST RENDITION OF
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. NORTHERN LAKES FRONT GETS THE BOOT
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS EARLIER MENTIONED
PATTERN RETROGRESSION BEGINS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MCS
FORMS UPSTREAM AND SLIDES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER AND MUCH MORE BEARABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY
BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THESE TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
EVENING AS REMNANTS OF AN UPSTREAM MCS ARRIVE TOWARD SUNRISE
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THRU THE DAY ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WITHIN ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS EXPECTED
TO VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN WINDS
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...FEF
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
BIG HEADLINE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE
THAT WILL BE ENVELOPING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPGRADED
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS MORNING...30 KT LLJ HAS BEE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE JET UP TOWARD
BRAINERD. HOWEVER...WITH A COUPLE THOUSAND J/KG OF MUCAPE SITTING
ACROSS SRN MN...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
LLJ. THIS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY OUTFLOW
PUSHING OUT OF THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THAT HAVE GONE ACROSS
NRN MN. BY 18Z...THE RAP BASICALLY HAS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE MPX AREA...SO THEREFORE EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO PUSH OUT OF THE MPX AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
BOWING SEGMENTS WE HAVE SEEN ON RADAR...STRONG WINDS WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH FOR A SHORT WHILE.
HEAT. SIGNIFICANT/HISTORIC HEAT WAVE WILL BE GRIPPING MUCH OF THE
MPX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH
99S AT MSP AND EAU...GAVE TEMPS A GOOD BOOST THRU THURSDAY. BEST
GUIDANCE FOR WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WAS THE BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION OF THE NAM...AND THE NUMBERS IT HAS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
ARE A BIT CONCERNING. WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON DEWPS MIX DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REALLY GET CRANKING.
FEELING PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE 100S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH WILL PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS UP TO 110. ADDING TO THE PROBLEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WHICH OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE 75
TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE URBAN CENTER OF
THE TWIN CITIES LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW 80 WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY
RAIN/OUTFLOW. GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE HEAT /4 DAYS
COUNTING MONDAY/...SAW NO REASON WHY WE SHOULD NOT UPGRADE THE
ADVISORY.
POPS WILL BE TRICKY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THANKS TO TEMPS UP AROUND 100 AND DEWPS
IN THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...A VERY WARM EML WITH H7 TEMPS UP
AROUND +14C WILL PROVIDE A VERY STOUT CAP FOR ANYTHING TO
OVERCOME. HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE MPX
AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHEN THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE
FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ONLY THING THAT COULD KEEP THE AREA
FROM BEING COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY IS IF WE
COULD GET SOME CONVECTION GOING WITHIN A LLJ AND WAA REGIME LIKE
THIS MORNING. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LLJ JET LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS AS
OPPOSED TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO CENTRAL MN.
CONCERN HERE IS THAT OFTEN TIMES WHEN YOU BURST A CAP TO END A
HEAT WAVE...THINGS CAN GET A BIT OUT OF HAND DUE THE INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THIS FRONT THEN STRUGGLES TO MOVE OUT OF THE MPX AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES FROM BEING
CENTERED UP THE MS VALLEY TO BEING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH FRI/SAT.
AGAIN...WILL STILL BE PLENTY WARM/HUMID FRIDAY TO CREATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT
EXISTING. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...PERSISTENT N WINDS SHOULD
STARTING PULLING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR...WITH SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING AS A RESULT. MORE IMPORTANT THOUGH THAN THE
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...THE HEAT WAVE WILL HAVE
BEEN BROKEN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WITH A WMFNT NE OF TAF SITES AND CDFNT NW OF TAF SITES...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH
PRIMARY LIFTNG MECHANISMS JUST N OF THE SITES...AM NOT EXPECTING
THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN MN AND NW WI NOR ANY POTENTIAL
LATER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS SINCE THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE KEPT
THE TAFS DRY WITH MULTIPLE MID- AND HIGH-LAYER CLOUDS. SMALL
POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT WITH SUCH A MOIST
ATMOS IN PLACE...ESP SHOULD WINDS DROP TO CALM...BUT CHCS ARE NOT
GREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES KEEPING THINGS
MIXED. MORE STABLE AIR DURG THE DAY TDA WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM
BREAKING OUT...ALLOWING FOR SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES LATE TDA INTO
TNGT.
MSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY AS CONVECTION TO
THE N PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
LOOKING FOR THE CONVECTION TO REACH MSP...BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. CLOUDS THEN LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND...INCLUDING
GOING TO N NOT LONG AFTER THIS TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO A SWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE PREDOMINANTLY SLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SW AND NW. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE
LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
MPG/JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EXERTS STRONG INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SET UP OVER
MISSOURI WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MS RIVER. THIS
WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING DURING
THE DAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP HEAT STRESS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BOUNDARIES THAT MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE CENTERED
RIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW
AS A RESULT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE INDICATED OVER SE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...WHERE SEABREEZE-RELATED BOUNDARIES COULD EVENTUALLY
HAVE AN IMPACT. WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS
THINKING.
WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
MICROBURSTS. WITH DCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1500 J/KG...WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS IN AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LAUREL/HATTIESBURG/
BROOKHAVEN/NATCHEZ AREA. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH QUIET OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE A
LITTLE GREATER AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING
EAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
CONTINUED HOT SFC TEMPS AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY AGAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO YET. /EC/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...COMPUTER MODELS STILL
IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ABOUT NASTY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER REPOSITIONING TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST MINOR
DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND SAID RIDGE CENTER AND ACROSS
OUR REGION WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS
MOISTENS...STAYS UNSTABLE...AND GENERALLY RIPENS FOR CONVECTION.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REALLY
ONLY INCREASE SOME ON THURSDAY IN MAINLY SOUTHEAST MS...BUT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO FEATURE LOTS OF MAINLY LATE DAY
STORMS OVER A BULK OF THE AREA.
IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT CURRENT EURO/GFS/GFSENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST A
LARGER DISTURBANCE THAT PREVIOUSLY BREAKS OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES
FAR TO THE NORTH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND AFFECT THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS AS PLANNED THEN THE ADDED LIFT AND MODEST
SHEAR OVER THE REGION COULD RESULT IN ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PASSAGES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. A POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE IS THAT EVEN IF THIS
AGGRESSIVE EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT AT LEAST MY
ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES COULD REMAIN TOO CLOSE TO THE HOT AND DRY
RIDGE CENTER TO SEE A WHOLE LOT OF BENEFIT. THAT WOULD BE
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THOSE MENTIONED DELTA SPOTS DEFINITELY ARE MOST
BEHIND IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN HOT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AWAY FROM
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE LEAST AND WHAT ACTIVITY THERE IS COULD WAIT UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS IN THOSE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
HIGHS UP NEAR 100 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE HEAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS AND WILL TEND TO
BE BROKEN BY PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY).
LATEST LOOK OF A CONSOLIDATED DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
OVER THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND PROSPECT
OF AT LEAST SOME LOOSE STORM ORGANIZATION. I AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED
OF THIS CONSOLIDATED DISTURBANCE YET SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
JUST YET IN THE HWO. HOWEVER...EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCES WOULD STILL
BE TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS IN AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THUS A FEW COULD STILL BE POTENT IN THE EVENT OF A
TAMER EVOLUTION.
BY SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE EURO MODEL REALLY
SPLITS WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THE EURO SHOWING
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE GFS SIDE ADVERTISES A LARGE SCALE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE SLOW SAG OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN LOTS OF CONVECTION
AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS. TOO EARLY TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MEX POPS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...FAIRLY TYPICAL HOT/HAZY AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WHERE HAZE REDUCES VISIBILITY. EARLY MORNING FOG ADDED TO THE MIX IS
RESULTING INTO LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR VSBY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MIX
OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IT APPEARS THE BEST TSTM CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTN/EVNG WILL BE FOR SOUTHEAST MS AND THE HBG AREA...PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS JAN/HKS. BUT A STRAY TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY
LOCATION IN THE HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. /EC/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS
MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE ARKLAMISS ARE UNDER BURN BANS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE PAST MONTH AND
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. HOT
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 98 71 98 72 / 10 14 18 9
MERIDIAN 98 68 98 70 / 20 18 23 18
VICKSBURG 97 70 96 71 / 8 13 13 7
HATTIESBURG 98 72 97 73 / 26 20 25 21
NATCHEZ 95 72 94 72 / 15 13 19 16
GREENVILLE 99 74 98 74 / 8 8 10 7
GREENWOOD 98 71 97 73 / 8 9 12 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1106 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA... AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING...IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS. AAG
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL
IMPULSES PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO BIG HORN
AND TREASURE COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE FROM SHERIDAN TO EKALAKA WHERE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE. CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE WET. HRRR CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SHERIDAN TO EKALAKA OVERNIGHT
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR KEEPING SCATTERED POPS GOING IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
NO CHANGE TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AS HOT
TEMPERATURES... LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. 00Z WRF BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
BILLINGS AROUND 6 PM. STRONG PRE-FRONTAL MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK OVER MANY LOCATION
TOMORROW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN/REGIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN
DETAILS SUCH AS SHORTWAVE TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED IS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH
TIME. THIS PUTS THE BILLINGS CWA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHORTWAVES
IN THIS FLOW WILL TAP INTO AND TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SW CONUS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA. AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT NECESSARILY NAIL DOWN TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AS THIS TIME...SO ESSENTIALLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES BRING WITH IT
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-GENERATED FIRE STARTS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MUCH AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH RECENT
CONVECTION.
WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD...TEMPS LOOK TO BE QUITE
WARM. GIVEN THE TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...TEMPS LOOKS TO
BE CLOSER TO BC GUIDANCE THAN NON-BC GUIDANCE...WHICH PUTS THEM
WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL...THINK LOW TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY WARM START TO EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS-KSHR LINE. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/100 059/087 062/091 064/094 063/094 064/094 065/095
21/N 20/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 051/097 048/086 053/088 054/093 055/092 055/092 055/092
22/T 20/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 059/102 057/090 061/093 063/096 063/095 063/096 064/097
21/G 20/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 066/104 061/090 065/095 066/097 066/097 066/097 067/097
22/T 20/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 063/101 060/090 063/094 067/093 065/094 064/095 064/095
82/T 20/U 22/T 22/T 32/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 061/100 061/089 063/091 065/092 063/092 063/093 064/093
33/T 21/N 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 057/101 053/090 060/091 060/093 060/092 061/092 061/093
81/G 20/U 22/T 23/T 22/T 32/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 274-284.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
323 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. A
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING. THIS AREA WAS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE HRRR HAD THIS AREA PEGGED FROM SEVERAL HOURS
AGO AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MAKING
GRIDS. OVERALL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRETCH THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO
THE BISMARCK/MINOT VICINITY BY MID MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
OUT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALSO WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE ILL
DEFINED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTO
FOCUS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL H85
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY INCREASE FROM 00Z TO 06Z
HELPING TO ADVECT MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY APPEARS STRONGEST EARLY TONIGHT THEN WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS TO A MINOT/BISMARCK LINE BY 12Z WEDS...THEN INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST WEDNESDAY WHEREBY THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WOULD BE REMOVED FROM ANY SUCH THREAT AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR AND A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING FROM WEST
TO EAST.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...HOT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE
DAKOTAS...WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z ISSUANCE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST ND FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON KDIK. LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS SLOPE AND BOWMAN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE
CREATE CRITICAL WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR. A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES
FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH INCLUDES SLOPE AND BOWMAN
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ040-043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1147 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH WYOMING. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PER REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
WERE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
00Z MODELS NOT CAPTURING THIS AREA WELL...HOWEVER THE LAST TWO
HOURLY HRRR RUNS HAVE...AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. HAVE NUDGED POPS INTO THE CHC
CATEGORY MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHC
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST BASED ON THE HRRRS COVERAGE. TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINTS ALREADY REACHING SATURATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH PATCHY FOG THE RESULT. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG AFTER
06Z FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ040-043.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM NIGHT AHEAD. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
STRUGGLING AND WANTED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND CHAMBERLAIN AT
0Z... CAPPING WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. CONVECTION IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD LEAK INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SEVERE IF IT DID.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING SLOWED THE DIURNAL
DROP A BIT WHICH KEPT FAIRLY TOASTY READINGS IN THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH BARELY SNEAKING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA
AT 2Z...SO THE MODELS PROJECTION FOR IT TO LEAK SOUTH ANOTHER 40 OR
50 MILES AT BEST SEEMS REASONABLE. FAIRLY BEEFY DEW POINTS IN
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SO DEW POINTS COULD CLIMB PRETTY QUICKLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHEREVER THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP IN THE MORNING.
REGARDLESS OF THIS VERY WARM TONIGHT AND HOT AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
WITHOUT THE ADDED MIXING EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT TODAY
SHOULD BE LESS READINGS OVER 100 BUT MORE THAN LIKELY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND LIGHTER WINDS SO PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE ON TUESDAY. /08
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR THROUGH 04/06Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MIXING SOUTHEAST OF WEAKENING
AND SLOWING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO AREA SHOULD PREVENT
VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING BELOW 6SM NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAKENING
WIND FIELDS ON BOTH SIDES OF TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SURFACE GUSTS WELL
BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH 04/06Z. ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHRA/TSRA FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER THROUGH 08Z AND FAR WEST 21Z-04/03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED.
WITHOUT CONVECTION...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 925 HPA TEMPS REMAINING NEAR 30C. WITH
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA...IT MIGHT BRING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF
TO THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA TOMORROW...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS RIDGE
ALOFT HOLDS STRONG. HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY FLY IS SMOKE FROM FIRES TO THE
WEST. IF FAIRLY THICK...THEN HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER.
WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT ISSUE IS
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
INTO FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CAPPED...BUT CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO THE NORTH
THAT A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THIS
FRONT WITH EC FURTHER NORTH AS IT HOLD RIDGE ALOFT WHILE BOTH GFS
AND NAM SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SO WITH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT STRENGTH OF
RIDGE WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND MAINLY NOCTURNAL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS AND SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING FOR A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONGER WAVES TO DIVE ACROSS
CWA. SEVERE THREAT NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW...SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO FINALLY SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS CWA THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097-098.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
SD...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES BKN THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE CURRENT TAFS.
DUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL VORTEX NEAR KAUFMAN COUNTY CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DROP POPS
TO 10 PERCENT AS MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS PLACED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN
NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES RECORDED. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
BEFORE OR NEAR SUNSET.
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN SLIDE BACK
WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN. WITH THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...HAVE
INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN OF
ACTIVITY WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY ALSO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS START TO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYING OUT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND OR BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...STARTING ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THIS
BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 95 78 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
WACO, TX 78 96 77 97 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 72 94 73 95 74 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 77 95 75 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 76 95 75 97 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 79 95 79 99 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 78 95 75 96 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 94 75 95 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 94 73 95 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 95 73 98 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
401 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
VERY DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AT 3 AM...WATCHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM REDWOOD FALLS
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST TO RICE LAKE...AND THEN EAST TOWARD
RHINELANDER. THE 03.04Z MPX TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT AS THE
LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA IT WILL BE
RUNNING INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG CAPPING
ALOFT...THEREFORE THINKING THAT THAT THE LINE WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SO LEFT MUCH OF
THAT AREA DRY. MEANWHILE IT IS A LITTLE CERTAIN NORTH OF A
ZUMBROTA TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE...SO INTRODUCED A 20 TO
40 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. THE 0-3 KM SHEAR
CLIMBS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
REPORT IN THIS AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEITHER THE 0-3 KM OR 0-6 KM SHEAR IS THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THINKING THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE AREAS.
BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 30C TODAY...AND IN THE LOWER 30S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 22C
TODAY...AND 24 TO 25C FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ECMWF ARE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS RESULT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 TODAY...95 TO 105 ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND 100 TO TO 105 ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES
RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 105 TO 115 ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AND THURSDAY. AT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY ONLY COOL OFF INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THERE MAY BE EVEN
A FEW PLACES THAT STAY IN THE LOWER 80S. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION
OF THIS HEAT...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE ECMWF AND GEM SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE 0-3 KM SHEAR CLIMBS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. MEANWHILE
THE 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS BELOW 25 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...COULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND REPORT. THIS IS
ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FORM.
FOR TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA OR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OVERALL THE ARW IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. THIS IS ACTUALLY VERY IMPORTANT...BECAUSE THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THINKING THAT THE BEST PROBABILITY WILL BE THAT IT WILL TAKE ON A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK...THEREFORE...ONLY PUT 20 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
VERY DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME CAPPING ALOFT AND
ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE...NOT PLANNING ON WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG IT...SO JUST WENT WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...SO ENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING ON FRIDAY EVENING. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WARNING
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
1130 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
SHRA/TS HAVE FIRED ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF A SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN WI. THE STORMS WERE FEEDING
OFF AMPLE UNSTABLE AIR AND A FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTH OF
THERE...LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND A CAP HAVE PREVENTED ANY SHRA/TS
DEVELOPING. MOST OF THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST EXCEPT FOR AN MCS
WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. RAP CORFIDI VECTORS
WANT TO TAKE IT DUE SOUTH...BUT CURRENT TRACK WOULD KEEP IT EAST OF
KLSE. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FOR KRST/KLSE. DON/T REALLY SEE A KICKER...SO CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH
IN THIS SCENARIO. WILL STAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT OBVIOUSLY CONDITIONS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE LAST TIME THAT BACK TO BACK 100 DEGREE DAYS OCCURRED IN
LA CROSSE WAS JULY 13-14 1995...AND FOR ROCHESTER IT WAS
AUGUST 23-24 1948.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND SPECIFICALLY DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
95 AND 103. TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WERE JUST IN THE 80S.
02.00Z MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN
SEEING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENT WITH LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING IN THE SAME AREA. SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 3 KILOMETERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS DO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING...PERHAPS JUST ON THE FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH CONSECUTIVE
RUNS...WHICH ALSO MATCHES WITH THE NAM. SHEAR DIMINISHES AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON AND EXPECT THIS TO DIE OUT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
CONVECTION NOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN
MCS AND DIVE EAST- SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE
NAM AND GFS. THUS HAVE KEPT PROBABILITIES IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. TRACK AND STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
MCS WILL PUSH EAST TUESDAY MORNING....WITH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
BUILD NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S CELSIUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 90S AND PERHAPS SOME LOW 100S IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS.
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR THE WARMER PORTIONS OF
THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT...IS DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES.
HOWEVER...THESE LOWER DEW POINTS MAY THEN RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT AND DID GO AHEAD AND
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
UPPER RIDGE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN
BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS ITS TOP.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT ADVISORIES REMAINING
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED UNTIL RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
1130 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
SHRA/TS HAVE FIRED ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF A SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN WI. THE STORMS WERE FEEDING
OFF AMPLE UNSTABLE AIR AND A FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTH OF
THERE...LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND A CAP HAVE PREVENTED ANY SHRA/TS
DEVELOPING. MOST OF THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST EXCEPT FOR AN MCS
WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. RAP CORFIDI VECTORS
WANT TO TAKE IT DUE SOUTH...BUT CURRENT TRACK WOULD KEEP IT EAST OF
KLSE. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FOR KRST/KLSE. DON/T REALLY SEE A KICKER...SO CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH
IN THIS SCENARIO. WILL STAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT OBVIOUSLY CONDITIONS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
COULD RESULT IN DAILY LOSSES OF 0.35 TO 0.40 INCH FROM THE SOILS.
IN ADDITION...THE CORN CROP COULD BE USING A 0.25 TO 0.30 OF AN
INCH PER DAY. THIS IS ITS HIGHEST USAGE FOR ITS LIFE CYCLE. RAIN
IS CRITICAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SINCE THIS IS WHEN IT WILL BE
CREATING ITS EARS.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE
NEAR THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
RECORD HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON
THE 4TH WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.UPDATE...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW
NORTH OF THE AXIS OVER THE LAKE REGION AND LIGHT ESE FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND DOES NOT INDICATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA SHOWED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH MAINLY LIGHT FLOW UP THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE...PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AROUND 3 PM THROUGH
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE LATEST HRRR/WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
INDICATE MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS AND WEST. ALSO...WITH THE LIGHT SW FLOW NORTH OF THE
AXIS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE AND LAKE
BREEZE WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER MARTIN AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
AS WELL. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG THE MAIN THREATS
BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH. THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE
STEERED WESTWARD UNDER A MEAN ESE WIND FLOW. WL KEEP VCTS FOR KAPF
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY TSTM GETTING CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM E-SE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR
A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REACHING KAPF AFTER 16Z.
RGH/KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...WHICH EXTENDS SE OVER THE N GUF OF MEX AND THE FLA PENIN
-SULA...WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE DEEP RIDGE AND MOVING SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...DEEPENS AN UPPER TROUGH SE ALONG THE
E U.S. COAST...THE ADJACENT N ATLC AND OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THURS
-DAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W AND LEAVES THE FLA PENINSULA IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
W AND THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SLOWLY MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BUT A SLOW IN
-CREASE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTERIOR AND W CAN BE EXPECT
-ED DUE TO CONVERGING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURS
-DAY...THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BE
-COMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION BECOMING
CENTERED MORE TOWARD THE INTERIOR AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS EACH DAY AS HIGHS
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH NEAR 90 AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES. HEAT INDICES IN THE AREAS OF THE IN
-TERIOR WILL RISE ABOVE 105 DEGREES. CIRCULATION ABOUT BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...PULLS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE/MOISTURE TOWARD S FLA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCES OF RAIN.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...FRIDAY MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE CHANCES OF RAIN BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES TOWARD S FLA OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS...LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECT IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
THERE WILL BE THOUGH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 78 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 91 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 92 75 91 76 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.UPDATE...
SOME IMPORTANT UPDATES HAVE BEEN DONE TO THE FCST.
THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE MCS HAS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED
AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CONVECTION THAT WAS INITIALLY
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WAS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A THETA E GRADIENT BUT RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LOOKING AT THE 15Z SFC OBS ONE CAN PICK OUT TWO DISTINCT
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...ONE ROUGHLY
ALONG HWY 30 AND THE OTHER ALONG HWY 20. THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. IF DEW POINTS WOULD MIX OUT A BIT MORE THEN
THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
REALIZED BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS WAA ALOFT TAKING PLACE SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE CLOUDS.
SO...THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE DRY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES TO HELP
INITIATE DIURNAL CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE 12Z DVN
SOUNDING HAS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 96. HOWEVER...WAA ALOFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE THIS CLOSER TO OR ABOVE 100.
INTERNALLY...THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE MIXED. TRENDS FROM THE RAP
SUGGEST A THETA E GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THAT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO ILLINOIS AND THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA. THERE IS RESPECTABLE FORCING ON
THE 340K SFC WITH THIS FEATURE.
RIGHT NOW THE DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST. THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DENSITY
ALTITUDE ISSUES TODAY. IN FACT...AT KMLI THE DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE OVER 3000FT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS IS UNDERWAY OVER MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...HAVING FIRED EARLIER IN THE EVENING ALONG A WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CORFIDI VECTORS AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHOWS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE IN ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING INHIBITION TO THE EAST SHOULD WEAKEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY
BY THE TIME IT REACHES SOUTHEAST MN. CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WARM...WITH MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. LE
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VERY TOUGH FORECAST TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEAT CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA
BEGINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WERE IN THE 93-97 RANGE NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH A FEW WARMER/COOLER VALUES HERE AN THERE. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE CONVECTION UP NORTH PUSHES
THE HEAT DOME BACK SOUTH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
ABOUT 2 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...AS ARE 850MB TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THIS DOESNT EXACTLY TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE...HAVE GENERALLY
RAISED TODAYS HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LATELY...AND HAVE PUT
MORE WEIGHT ON THIS TYPE OF ADJUSTMENT THAN ON ANY ONE GUIDANCE
PRODUCT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO A DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS A SMALL
CHANGE PUTS US INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA INSTEAD OF HEAT
ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
VERY LOW 70S. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS TO CAUSE THESE
TO CHANGE...AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RECENT RAINFALL TO CAUSE THEM
TO RISE...BUT WE ARE NOT SO DRY THAT THEY WILL LOWER WITH TIME.
THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH TO HELP KEEP THEM UP AS WELL. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
VERY SIMILAR DEWPOINTS TO YESTERDAY. THIS DOES PUT US VERY CLOSE TO
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...AND LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS WILL HIT 105F OR
HIGHER TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THE
WARNING JUST YET. ALSO...WE ARE DROPPING BELOW 75 THIS MORNING OVER
ENOUGH OF THE AREA THAT TODAY WOULD BE THE FIRST DAY OF POSSIBLE
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...AM STAYING WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
NOW...BUT IF TODAYS DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE COMING IN HIGHER
THAN FORECAST AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED. THE PUDDLE OF MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE THAT TRIGGERED THE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO OUR SOUTH...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
REPEAT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY ONE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 70S. ANOTHER MCS MAY FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO PUSH SOME CLOUDS OUR DIRECTION. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
SAGGING BACK INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...SO ANTICIPATE THAT
POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE WARMER DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT TO
AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER...AND KEEPING THE HUMIDITY UP.
NONE OF THIS MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA.
LE
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN MCS IN OR NEAR THE CWA OR AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD DEBRIS MUCH OF THIS PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE A SCORCHER.
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HEAT DOME CENTERED OVER IA TO
PROVIDE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
HEADLINE MOST LIKELY NEEDED ALL THREE DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THIS IS
ASSUMING THE DVN CWA IS NOT IMPACTED BY AN UNFORESEEN MCS. OTHERWISE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST
LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70 DURING THE
AFTERNOON JUMPING INTO THE MID 70S IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REACHING A PEAK IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL YIELD
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO VERIFY A HEAT WARNING.
BECAUSE HEAT HAS AN ACCUMULATIVE EFFECT ON THE BODY THIS EXTENDED
HOT WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DETRIMENTAL FOR ANYONE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONING OR WORKING OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME.
NIGHTTIME WILL OFFER LITTLE OR NO RELIEF AS MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 80 FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING BY
SATURDAY AND THEN STALLING ACROSS THE DVN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY...MOST LIKELY SEVERE. THE ECM
SHOWS THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE
90S ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S BY MONDAY. HOWEVER THESE
READINGS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT
ACTUALLY ARRIVES.
NEXT WEEK...RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC/ARCTIC OSCILLATION ANOMALIES GO NEGATIVE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CANADA TO
SET UP SHOP. THIS PUTS THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MAX
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE 80S.
HAASE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1007 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
CURRENT RADAR AND VIS IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE I-75 AND ALONG THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THIS MORNING AND SO
HAVE UPDATED TO THROW SOME POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS ARE COMING IN A BIT UNSTABLE THIS MORNING AND THESE POPPING
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT. LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE HEAT
OF THE DAY SETS IN. THIS COUPLED WITH THE NAM AND RUC SHOWING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST. SO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER AND SENT OUT A NEW ZFP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
UPDATED SKY COVER GRIDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION EACH
DAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH FEATURES BEING WEAK...
PRECISELY WHERE IT OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN...AND AT THIS POINT THE
FORECAST WILL DEAL IN GENERALITY. WILL BE USING CHANCE POPS PEAKING
LATE IN THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE NAM HAS INDICATED A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVING SSW INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LARGE SPATIAL DIFFERENCE IN POPS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE HOT AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...BRINGING REINFORCING HEAT AS WELL AS MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTH TOWARDS THE COMMONWEALTH...ALLOWING FOR SOME BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR. DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE
CHALLENGING WITH HOW ALL OF THIS UNFOLDS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND
THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INHERITED FORECAST. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
VERY LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING
VFR EVERYWHERE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING LOCALIZED IFR AND GUSTY WINDS. THEY WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE DECLINE DURING THE NIGHT. VERY LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1114 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY CAUSE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THE
FOURTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND
ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS, PER BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND
SURFACE DATA, HRRR MODEL OUTPUT AND SPC GUIDANCE/MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1373/.
MADE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE PROSPECT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AS INDICATED BY PREFERRED WARMER NAM MOS.
THE IMPACTS-BASED HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR COUNTIES
IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES REMAIN. THIS IS FOR CRITERIA BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT ALLOWED FOR A GRADUAL DECLINE TOWARD EVENING GIVEN CONSISTENT
TIMING...WITH CESSATION OF PCPN BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY AND MAINTAIN
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST READINGS ARE CLOSE
TO HPC NUMBERS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORM. MODELS SHOW RIDGE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD DURING
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A DOWNWARD TREND OF A FEW
DEGREES.
A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS FOR TAF SITES SUCH AS KFKL, KPIT, KBVI, KAGC, AND
KHLG THROUGH 20Z. THIS WAS BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT RADAR DATA
AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION ELSEWHERE,
BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED BASED ON THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVEMENT INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE
OF BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR, EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY,
AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039-048-
057>059-068-069.
PA...NONE.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ004-012-
021>023.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 424 AM CDT
BIG HEADLINE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE
THAT WILL BE ENVELOPING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPGRADED
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS MORNING...30 KT LLJ HAS BEE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE JET UP TOWARD
BRAINERD. HOWEVER...WITH A COUPLE THOUSAND J/KG OF MUCAPE SITTING
ACROSS SRN MN...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
LLJ. THIS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY OUTFLOW
PUSHING OUT OF THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THAT HAVE GONE ACROSS
NRN MN. BY 18Z...THE RAP BASICALLY HAS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE MPX AREA...SO THEREFORE EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO PUSH OUT OF THE MPX AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
BOWING SEGMENTS WE HAVE SEEN ON RADAR...STRONG WINDS WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH FOR A SHORT WHILE.
HEAT. SIGNIFICANT/HISTORIC HEAT WAVE WILL BE GRIPPING MUCH OF THE
MPX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH
99S AT MSP AND EAU...GAVE TEMPS A GOOD BOOST THRU THURSDAY. BEST
GUIDANCE FOR WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WAS THE BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION OF THE NAM...AND THE NUMBERS IT HAS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
ARE A BIT CONCERNING. WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON DEWPS MIX DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REALLY GET CRANKING.
FEELING PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE 100S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH WILL PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS UP TO 110. ADDING TO THE PROBLEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WHICH OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE 75
TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE URBAN CENTER OF
THE TWIN CITIES LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW 80 WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY
RAIN/OUTFLOW. GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE HEAT /4 DAYS
COUNTING MONDAY/...SAW NO REASON WHY WE SHOULD NOT UPGRADE THE
ADVISORY.
POPS WILL BE TRICKY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THANKS TO TEMPS UP AROUND 100 AND DEWPS
IN THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...A VERY WARM EML WITH H7 TEMPS UP
AROUND +14C WILL PROVIDE A VERY STOUT CAP FOR ANYTHING TO
OVERCOME. HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE MPX
AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHEN THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE
FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ONLY THING THAT COULD KEEP THE AREA
FROM BEING COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY IS IF WE
COULD GET SOME CONVECTION GOING WITHIN A LLJ AND WAA REGIME LIKE
THIS MORNING. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LLJ JET LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS AS
OPPOSED TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO CENTRAL MN.
CONCERN HERE IS THAT OFTEN TIMES WHEN YOU BURST A CAP TO END A
HEAT WAVE...THINGS CAN GET A BIT OUT OF HAND DUE THE INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THIS FRONT THEN STRUGGLES TO MOVE OUT OF THE MPX AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES FROM BEING
CENTERED UP THE MS VALLEY TO BEING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH FRI/SAT.
AGAIN...WILL STILL BE PLENTY WARM/HUMID FRIDAY TO CREATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT
EXISTING. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...PERSISTENT N WINDS SHOULD
STARTING PULLING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR...WITH SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING AS A RESULT. MORE IMPORTANT THOUGH THAN THE
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...THE HEAT WAVE WILL HAVE
BEEN BROKEN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
REMNANTS OF OVERNITE TSTMS ARE EXITING THE AREA WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM AT EAU WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE IN
WAKE OF TSTMS NOW SLIDING SE ACROSS WI. WINDS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE
IN FORECAST. MPX 12Z RAOB AND VAD WINDS SHOW BAND OF 20 TO 25 KTS
WINDS VEERING FROM SE TO SW BETWEEN WI HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE IN SE SODAK. GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE MORNING...BUT SFC
WINDS AND MSP/RNH/EAU WILL BE IN THE 12 TO 15 KT RANGE. SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK TROF FROM INL TO MOX TO CNB. MODELS SAG
THIS SE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS MB/SASK INTO NW OT DURING THE
DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NW IN WAKE OF TROF. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AS WINDS THEN SWING AROUND TO THE SE TO SW
AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. ATMOS SHUD BE CAPPED DURING THE
DAY TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIONS...BUT WITH PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW U.S. INTO MN...WOULDN`T RULE OUT TSTMS
OVERNITE...MAINLY AT AXN.
MSP...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. SE WINDS (120-150) SHUD
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SWLY BY 15Z AS SW WINDS OFF SURFACE BEGIN TO
MIX DOWN ANSD AND WI HI PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. WEAK SFC TROF
MENTIONED IN ABOVE AVIATION DISC MAY ALSO REACH MSP LATE IN AFTN
CAUSING WSW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE
LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
MPG/JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1049 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WAS HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE READINGS HAD ALREADY
REACHED 90 DEGREES BY 15Z. GIVEN THE IMPACT OF THE CLOUDS...HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AT THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD CLOSER
TO THE MS RIVER. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THIS BEING A
POSSIBILITY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE CURRENT POP/WX GRIDS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION AND NO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST TSTM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTN/EVNG WILL BE FOR SOUTHEAST MS AND
THE HBG AREA...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS JAN/HKS. BUT A STRAY TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOCATION IN THE HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IF
A STORM DEVELOPS...IT COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS.
/28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EXERTS STRONG INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SET UP OVER
MISSOURI WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MS RIVER. THIS
WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING DURING
THE DAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP HEAT STRESS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE A
LITTLE GREATER AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING
EAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
CONTINUED HOT SFC TEMPS AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY AGAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO YET. /EC/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...COMPUTER MODELS STILL IN
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ABOUT NASTY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER REPOSITIONING TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST MINOR
DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND SAID RIDGE CENTER AND ACROSS
OUR REGION WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS
MOISTENS...STAYS UNSTABLE...AND GENERALLY RIPENS FOR CONVECTION.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REALLY
ONLY INCREASE SOME ON THURSDAY IN MAINLY SOUTHEAST MS...BUT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO FEATURE LOTS OF MAINLY LATE DAY
STORMS OVER A BULK OF THE AREA.
IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT CURRENT EURO/GFS/GFSENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST A
LARGER DISTURBANCE THAT PREVIOUSLY BREAKS OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES
FAR TO THE NORTH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND AFFECT THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS AS PLANNED THEN THE ADDED LIFT AND MODEST
SHEAR OVER THE REGION COULD RESULT IN ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PASSAGES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. A POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE IS THAT EVEN IF THIS
AGGRESSIVE EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT AT LEAST MY
ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES COULD REMAIN TOO CLOSE TO THE HOT AND DRY
RIDGE CENTER TO SEE A WHOLE LOT OF BENEFIT. THAT WOULD BE
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THOSE MENTIONED DELTA SPOTS DEFINITELY ARE MOST
BEHIND IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN HOT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AWAY FROM
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE LEAST AND WHAT ACTIVITY THERE IS COULD WAIT UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS IN THOSE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
HIGHS UP NEAR 100 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE HEAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS AND WILL TEND TO
BE BROKEN BY PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY).
LATEST LOOK OF A CONSOLIDATED DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
OVER THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND PROSPECT
OF AT LEAST SOME LOOSE STORM ORGANIZATION. I AM NOT QUITE CONVINCED
OF THIS CONSOLIDATED DISTURBANCE YET SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
JUST YET IN THE HWO. HOWEVER...EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCES WOULD STILL
BE TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS IN AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THUS A FEW COULD STILL BE POTENT IN THE EVENT OF A
TAMER EVOLUTION.
BY SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE EURO MODEL REALLY
SPLITS WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THE EURO SHOWING
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE GFS SIDE ADVERTISES A LARGE SCALE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE SLOW SAG OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN LOTS OF CONVECTION
AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS. TOO EARLY TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MEX POPS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. /BB/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS
MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE ARKLAMISS ARE UNDER BURN BANS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE PAST MONTH AND
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. HOT
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. /EC/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/JC/EC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM TUESDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING. A MINOR S/W IN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ATTEMPT TO LOWER HEIGHTS A BIT IN OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT 850MB WITH GSO REPORT A DEWPOINT OF 9 DEG WHILE RNK
MEASURED 13. 850MB TRAJECTORIES FAVOR BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT VERSUS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FEATURE THAT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THOUGH LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MAY SERVE AS A FEATURE FOR
SURFACE MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG...AIDING TO TRIGGER/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. FINALLY....LATEST HRRR MODEL ALONG WITH 09Z RUC AND
OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW
PIEDMONT. DUE TO LACK OF EVIDENCE ALOFT...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS TO
SMALL CHANCE IN THIS REGION WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL SUGGEST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY RESIDES ALOFT TO CAUSE STORMS TO
PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY STORMS THAT
OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO NUMBERS PREDICTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH THE DEWPOINT COMPUTES TO
HEAT INDICES 100-104. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH ANY
PLACE THAT EXPERIENCE 105 DEGREES OR GREATER MAY ONLY SEE THESE
CONDITIONS FOR TWO HOURS OR LESS. -WSS
THE GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN GENERATING VORTICES AND SUSTAINING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED TO ABSENT BY LATE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST... STRETCHING FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONSENSUS THAT THE WAVE WILL SHARPEN OVER VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE LARGELY UNAVAILABLE. THUS WILL HOLD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES TO NO MORE THAN 40 PERCENT NORTHWEST... TAPERING TOWARD
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST... WITH SHOWERS PERHAPS NOT
CLEARING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS POTENTIAL ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUE WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS FIVE AND CAPE
LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY
AND CLOUDS WILL INTERFERE WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL... NEAR 93 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 97 SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES 70 TO 74.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
PROBABLE PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WETTER AND LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NC THU...AROUND ANOTHER BUILDING MID-UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BRIEFLY EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI-SAT...BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEGATIVE NAO AND POSITIVE
PNA-DRIVEN TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
NATION/SE CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRESENCE/PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SUGGESTS SCATTERED
PULSE CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER CENTRAL NC THU...FOCUSED OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING
PROBABILITIES AS THE MID-UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FRI-SAT. IT
THEN APPEARS THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL FORCE A CONVECTION-FOCUSING FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTH INTO NC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO COOL PRECEDING MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S HEAT
TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOCAL VISIBILITIES NEAR 5 MILES IN FOG OR HAZE UNTIL
JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MOST WILL BE VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG OR HAZE...MAINLY
MVFR...COULD OCCUR AS THE AIR MASS CHANGES LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 3 (TUESDAY)
RDU: 98 (1955)
GSO: 98 (1911)
FAY: 100 (1954)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/30/2012, 6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988,
7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...WSS/99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.AVIATION...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI FOR ABOUT AN HOUR WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE IS SLOWER TO PUSH WEST. TENDENCY FOR THE TSRA WILL BE
TO DRIFT WEST AND SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE KAPF TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
UPDATE...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW
NORTH OF THE AXIS OVER THE LAKE REGION AND LIGHT ESE FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND DOES NOT INDICATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA SHOWED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH MAINLY LIGHT FLOW UP THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE...PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AROUND 3 PM THROUGH
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE LATEST HRRR/WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
INDICATE MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS AND WEST. ALSO...WITH THE LIGHT SW FLOW NORTH OF THE
AXIS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE AND LAKE
BREEZE WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER MARTIN AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
AS WELL. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG THE MAIN THREATS
BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH. THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE
STEERED WESTWARD UNDER A MEAN ESE WIND FLOW. WL KEEP VCTS FOR KAPF
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY TSTM GETTING CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM E-SE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR
A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REACHING KAPF AFTER 16Z.
RGH/KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...WHICH EXTENDS SE OVER THE N GUF OF MEX AND THE FLA PENIN
-SULA...WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE DEEP RIDGE AND MOVING SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...DEEPENS AN UPPER TROUGH SE ALONG THE
E U.S. COAST...THE ADJACENT N ATLC AND OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THURS
-DAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W AND LEAVES THE FLA PENINSULA IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
W AND THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SLOWLY MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BUT A SLOW IN
-CREASE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTERIOR AND W CAN BE EXPECT
-ED DUE TO CONVERGING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURS
-DAY...THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BE
-COMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION BECOMING
CENTERED MORE TOWARD THE INTERIOR AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS EACH DAY AS HIGHS
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH NEAR 90 AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES. HEAT INDICES IN THE AREAS OF THE IN
-TERIOR WILL RISE ABOVE 105 DEGREES. CIRCULATION ABOUT BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...PULLS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE/MOISTURE TOWARD S FLA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCES OF RAIN.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...FRIDAY MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE CHANCES OF RAIN BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES TOWARD S FLA OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS...LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECT IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
THERE WILL BE THOUGH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
505 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
412 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...LARGE SCALE PATTERNS CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS CONUS. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND REACHES HUDSON BAY LATE THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OVER QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE RIDGE CENTER
SHIFTS WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...MUCH WELCOMED NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT WATCH THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY FOR
COOK COUNTY...AND EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY AS WELL.
THROUGH TONIGHT...
DESPITE OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE PER THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NO
CIN...A LACK OF FORCING HAS RESULTED IN PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND A
LACK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND NO CLEAR
FORCING MECHANISM...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE THAT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF OBVIOUS FORCING...BETTING AGAINST
IT.
WE STAY WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT FOR NEAR
80 DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF RUN INDICATES THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAISED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MIXING STRAIGHT DOWN FROM 850 HPA GAVE TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID HUNDREDS ON BOTH DAYS AND DECIDED THAT WAS TOO MUCH
OF AN INCREASE THIS FAR OUT. COULD SEE THURSDAY MAX TEMPS BE EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. EITHER WAY BOTH DAYS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 100. MAX HEAT INDICES ON BOTH DAYS WILL VARY BETWEEN 100 AND
113 DEGREES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS HEAT INDICES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT FOR NEAR 80 DOWNTOWN.
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TO OUR NORTH AND TRY TO ROLL
DOWN THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WILL FIZZLE BEFORE CROSSING THE
WI/IL BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...KEPT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO LIKELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE LAKE BREEZES COULD PROVIDE LATE
DAY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER DOWNTOWN HITS ITS MAX TEMP.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH RELIEF ARRIVING IN THE
FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS
DEBATABLE WITH THE MODELS DIFFERING ON ITS ARRIVAL. LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF/S STEADY SOLUTION WHICH FEATURES THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS
ON SATURDAY. LOOKING AT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF...EXPECTING FUTURE
FORECASTS TO RAISE TEMPS EVEN FURTHER ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SATURDAY MOST LIKELY REMAINING COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
ONCE AGAIN...TEMPS AND PRECIP ALL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE EXTENDED PRECIP
FORECAST...BUT TO BLEND WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS AND GIVEN HOW FAR
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS...BLENDED IN A LITTLE OF THE GFS. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS BEHIND THE FROPA LOOK NEAR
NORMAL.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
TUE 102 78 99 74
1949 1911 1925 1911
WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977
THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911
FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SLIGHT THREAT OF ISOLATED TS LATE AFTERNOON-MID EVENING.
TRS/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI AT MID
AFTERNOON WAS GENERATING SOME PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS...INDICATING
AT LEAST MID LEVEL LIFT. NON-IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF ENHANCEMENT AS THE
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO THE ESE. BEST AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LOOKS TO BE IN E CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SE WI DURING
LATE AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WOULD THEN TAKE ANY CELLS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE LAKE...UNLESS TS FIRE SOONER /FURTHER
W/ THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN POTENTIALLY COULD MAKE IT TO THE
FAR NE CORNER OF IL.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS GENERATED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING WEAKENED AS IT MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. BY 17Z IT
HAD HAD PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT WITH MOST METARS AND MESONET OBS
SHOWING SURFACE WINDS RETURNING TO LIGHT SSW-SW.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 93F AND NOT REACHED YET SO
CUMULUS HAS NOT MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER THE AREA YET. MOST OF THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE WI THUNDERSTORMS HAS THINNED CONSIDERABLY
SO GOOD SURFACE HEATING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO POP CUMULUS 20-21Z.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SURFACE FEATURE IN THE AREA TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOR ANY MID OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AS
WELL AS A SLIGHT WARMING OF MID LEVELS...CHANCES OF ANYTHING
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
DAKOTAS...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE MOVING E FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND NORTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING...DO NOT SEE ANY
PARTICULAR TIME FRAME WHEN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFORS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
TRS/KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT.
* SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO THIS EVENING
WILL TRAIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT
SLIDES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE FRONT REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
LOW MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THIS SECOND LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WILL DRAG ANOTHER FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE WEEKEND.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...ILZ014...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.
HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
415 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
412 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...LARGE SCALE PATTERNS CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS CONUS. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS HIGH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND REACHES HUDSON BAY LATE THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OVER QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE RIDGE CENTER
SHIFTS WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...MUCH WELCOMED NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT WATCH THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY FOR
COOK COUNTY...AND EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY AS WELL.
THROUGH TONIGHT...
DESPITE OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE PER THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NO
CIN...A LACK OF FORCING HAS RESULTED IN PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND A
LACK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND NO CLEAR
FORCING MECHANISM...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE THAT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF OBVIOUS FORCING...BETTING AGAINST
IT.
WE STAY WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT FOR NEAR
80 DOWNTOWN. HEAT INDICES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF RUN INDICATES THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAISED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MIXING STRAIGHT DOWN FROM 850 HPA GAVE TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID HUNDREDS ON BOTH DAYS AND DECIDED THAT WAS TOO MUCH
OF AN INCREASE THIS FAR OUT. COULD SEE THURSDAY MAX TEMPS BE EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. EITHER WAY BOTH DAYS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 100. MAX HEAT INDICES ON BOTH DAYS WILL VARY BETWEEN 100 AND
113 DEGREES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS HEAT INDICES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT FOR NEAR 80 DOWNTOWN.
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TO OUR NORTH AND TRY TO ROLL
DOWN THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WILL FIZZLE BEFORE CROSSING THE
WI/IL BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...KEPT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
LAKESHORE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO LIKELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE LAKE BREEZES COULD PROVIDE LATE
DAY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER DOWNTOWN HITS ITS MAX TEMP.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH RELIEF ARRIVING IN THE
FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS
DEBATABLE WITH THE MODELS DIFFERING ON ITS ARRIVAL. LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF/S STEADY SOLUTION WHICH FEATURES THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS
ON SATURDAY. LOOKING AT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF...EXPECTING FUTURE
FORECASTS TO RAISE TEMPS EVEN FURTHER ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SATURDAY MOST LIKELY REMAINING COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
ONCE AGAIN...TEMPS AND PRECIP ALL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE EXTENDED PRECIP
FORECAST...BUT TO BLEND WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS AND GIVEN HOW FAR
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS...BLENDED IN A LITTLE OF THE GFS. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS BEHIND THE FROPA LOOK NEAR
NORMAL.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
520 AM CDT
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
TUE 102 78 99 74
1949 1911 1925 1911
WED 102 80 101 77
1911 1921 1911 1977
THU 102 82 100 77
1911 1911 1911 1911
FRI 99 80 102 73
1988 1977 1936 1948
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 SET BACK ON JULY 24
1934...AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 SET ON JULY 14 1936.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SLIGHT THREAT OF TS LATE AFTERNOON-MID EVENING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI AT MID
AFTERNOON WAS GENERATING SOME PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS...INDICATING
AT LEAST MID LEVEL LIFT. NON-IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF ENHANCEMENT AS THE
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO THE ESE. BEST AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LOOKS TO BE IN E CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SE WI DURING
LATE AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WOULD THEN TAKE ANY CELLS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE LAKE...UNLESS TS FIRE SOONER /FURTHER
W/ THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN POTENTIALLY COULD MAKE IT TO THE
FAR NE CORNER OF IL.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS GENERATED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING WEAKENED AS IT MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. BY 17Z IT
HAD HAD PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT WITH MOST METARS AND MESONET OBS
SHOWING SURFACE WINDS RETURNING TO LIGHT SSW-SW.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 93F AND NOT REACHED YET SO
CUMULUS HAS NOT MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER THE AREA YET. MOST OF THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE WI THUNDERSTORMS HAS THINNED CONSIDERABLY
SO GOOD SURFACE HEATING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO POP CUMULUS 20-21Z.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SURFACE FEATURE IN THE AREA TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOR ANY MID OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AS
WELL AS A SLIGHT WARMING OF MID LEVELS...CHANCES OF ANYTHING
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
DAKOTAS...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE MOVING E FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND NORTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING...DO NOT SEE ANY
PARTICULAR TIME FRAME WHEN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFORS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT.
* SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO THIS EVENING
WILL TRAIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT
SLIDES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE FRONT REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
LOW MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THIS SECOND LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WILL DRAG ANOTHER FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE WEEKEND.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...ILZ014...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.
HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB LOW IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A
WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS ON
THIS BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MID TEENS. A DECAYING LLJ RAN FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA THAT WAS IN AN AXIS OF MID TEEN DEW
POINTS AS WELL. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW
DIURNAL CU TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE REMNANT COLD POOL OF LAST
NIGHTS MCS IN WISCONSIN AND FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW AT KMHE AND ANOTHER IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. AN IMPLIED BOUNDARY RAN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
ANOTHER IMPLIED BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE NOCTURNAL MCS IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
JUST BARELY VERIFYING AT MID AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING. TODAY AND YESTERDAY DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN DURING THE DAY AND THEN DROPPED AT NIGHT. THE ONLY
EXPLANATION THAT MAKES SENSE FOR THIS OCCURRING IS CORN. ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP THE CORN STARTS TO ACTIVELY EVAPOTRANSPIRATE. WITH
SUNSET THE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHUTS DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF DEW POINTS DROPPING TONIGHT
AND THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SO FAR HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON RAP TRENDS...
CONVECTION MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA.
A BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE HAS A
VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER BACK IN THE DAKOTAS. RAP TRENDS SHOW THESE FEATURES IN THE
500MB FLOW. THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COMBINED WITH THE LLJ INCREASING IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS. THE LLJ IS
WEAKER OVER THE CWFA SO THE MCS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS WILL LIKELY
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION THAT WILL DECAY AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE
NORTHERN CWFA BORDER LIKE THIS MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS THEN PLAY
INTO TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...WILL GO THE THE IDEA THAT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL
IT THINS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO IS
CORRECT...MAX TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY
THAN THEY ARE TODAY.
REGARDING HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY. IF DEW
POINTS DROP TONIGHT AS THEY HAVE THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 70S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. GIVEN THE
LENGTH OF TIME THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND...THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. ..08..
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BRING SOME RELIEF IN THE
FORM OF RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT
DOME OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. LOCALLY...THE HEAT AND HIGH HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
WORSEN AS AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER SENDS THE DOME OF
HEAT ALOFT NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. USING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
ECM GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE TOO WARM NAM AND TOO COOL
TRENDING GFS...BY THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 TO 7 DEGREES C WARMER. THIS WOULD EASILY DRIVE
MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...HOWEVER...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDBACK ON TEMPERATURES REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM MATURING FIELD CROPS APPEARS TO
BE THE CULPRIT FOR DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S DURING WEAK
MIXING AT NIGHT...WHICH TODAY ARE REMAINING HIGH DESPITE 10 TO 20 KT
WINDS. MODELS WILL NOT LIKELY HANDLE THIS FEEDBACK PROPERLY AND THUS
THE DRIER NAM WITH ITS LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WIDESPREAD 104 TO 107 MAX
TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THU IS SUSPECT...WHILE THE EQUALLY TOO MOIST
TRENDING GFS IS TOO COOL AND UNUSABLE. FOLLOWING MORE CLOSELY THE
BIAS CORRECTED MODELS AND 12Z ECM...HAVE KEPT THU AS THE WARMEST OF
THE STRETCH WITH A COMPROMISE 99 TO 102 RANGE FOR HIGHS. USING TODAY AS
A MODEL...HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS INTO A 105 TO
110 RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE WELL
INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE CRITICAL DEWPOINT VALUES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WARNING AS THE HEAT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THESE PERIODS.
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT IS NOTED FOR FRIDAY AND MODELS DROP A WEAK
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HAVE THUS LIMITED HIGHS TO THE 90S...WHILE HEAT INDICES AGAIN
PUSH TO AT LEAST 100 TO 105. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM WED NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S...CONTINUING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH HEAT INDICES ALSO SUPPORTING THE ON-GOING
ADVISORY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN NEW UPSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE
MORE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO DROP SOUTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW POPS FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHEETS
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
VFR WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/05. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES AOA 3KFT
CAN BE EXPECTED 18Z/03 THROUGH 02Z/04 AND AGAIN AFT 16Z/04.
BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT TSRA MAY BE A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION 20Z/03 TO 03Z/04. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA
OR TSRA HITTING ANY TAF SITE IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS AND WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/05. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES AOA 3KFT
CAN BE EXPECTED 18Z/03 THROUGH 02Z/04 AND AGAIN AFT 16Z/04.
BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT TSRA MAY BE A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION 20Z/03 TO 03Z/04. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA
OR TSRA HITTING ANY TAF SITE IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS AND WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
UPDATE...
SOME IMPORTANT UPDATES HAVE BEEN DONE TO THE FCST.
THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE MCS HAS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED
AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CONVECTION THAT WAS INITIALLY
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WAS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A THETA E GRADIENT BUT RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LOOKING AT THE 15Z SFC OBS ONE CAN PICK OUT TWO DISTINCT
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...ONE ROUGHLY
ALONG HWY 30 AND THE OTHER ALONG HWY 20. THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. IF DEW POINTS WOULD MIX OUT A BIT MORE THEN
THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
REALIZED BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS WAA ALOFT TAKING PLACE SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE CLOUDS.
SO...THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE DRY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES TO HELP
INITIATE DIURNAL CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE 12Z DVN
SOUNDING HAS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 96. HOWEVER...WAA ALOFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE THIS CLOSER TO OR ABOVE 100.
INTERNALLY...THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE MIXED. TRENDS FROM THE RAP
SUGGEST A THETA E GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THAT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO ILLINOIS AND THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA. THERE IS RESPECTABLE FORCING ON
THE 340K SFC WITH THIS FEATURE.
RIGHT NOW THE DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. ..08..
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS IS UNDERWAY OVER MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...HAVING FIRED EARLIER IN THE EVENING ALONG A WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CORFIDI VECTORS AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHOWS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE IN ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING INHIBITION TO THE EAST SHOULD WEAKEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY
BY THE TIME IT REACHES SOUTHEAST MN. CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WARM...WITH MID-UPPER 70 TEMPS NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. LE
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VERY TOUGH FORECAST TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEAT CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA
BEGINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WERE IN THE 93-97 RANGE NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH A FEW WARMER/COOLER VALUES HERE AN THERE. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE CONVECTION UP NORTH PUSHES
THE HEAT DOME BACK SOUTH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
ABOUT 2 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...AS ARE 850MB TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THIS DOESNT EXACTLY TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE...HAVE GENERALLY
RAISED TODAYS HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LATELY...AND HAVE PUT
MORE WEIGHT ON THIS TYPE OF ADJUSTMENT THAN ON ANY ONE GUIDANCE
PRODUCT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO A DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS A SMALL
CHANGE PUTS US INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA INSTEAD OF HEAT
ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
VERY LOW 70S. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS TO CAUSE THESE
TO CHANGE...AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RECENT RAINFALL TO CAUSE THEM
TO RISE...BUT WE ARE NOT SO DRY THAT THEY WILL LOWER WITH TIME.
THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH TO HELP KEEP THEM UP AS WELL. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
VERY SIMILAR DEWPOINTS TO YESTERDAY. THIS DOES PUT US VERY CLOSE TO
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...AND LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS WILL HIT 105F OR
HIGHER TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THE
WARNING JUST YET. ALSO...WE ARE DROPPING BELOW 75 THIS MORNING OVER
ENOUGH OF THE AREA THAT TODAY WOULD BE THE FIRST DAY OF POSSIBLE
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...AM STAYING WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
NOW...BUT IF TODAYS DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES ARE COMING IN HIGHER
THAN FORECAST AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED. THE PUDDLE OF MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE THAT TRIGGERED THE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO OUR SOUTH...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
REPEAT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY ONE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 70S. ANOTHER MCS MAY FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO PUSH SOME CLOUDS OUR DIRECTION. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
SAGGING BACK INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...SO ANTICIPATE THAT
POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE WARMER DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT TO
AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER...AND KEEPING THE HUMIDITY UP.
NONE OF THIS MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA.
LE
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN MCS IN OR NEAR THE CWA OR AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD DEBRIS MUCH OF THIS PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE A SCORCHER.
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HEAT DOME CENTERED OVER IA TO
PROVIDE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
HEADLINE MOST LIKELY NEEDED ALL THREE DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THIS IS
ASSUMING THE DVN CWA IS NOT IMPACTED BY AN UNFORESEEN MCS. OTHERWISE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST
LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70 DURING THE
AFTERNOON JUMPING INTO THE MID 70S IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REACHING A PEAK IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL YIELD
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO VERIFY A HEAT WARNING.
BECAUSE HEAT HAS AN ACCUMULATIVE EFFECT ON THE BODY THIS EXTENDED
HOT WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DETRIMENTAL FOR ANYONE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONING OR WORKING OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME.
NIGHTTIME WILL OFFER LITTLE OR NO RELIEF AS MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 80 FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING BY
SATURDAY AND THEN STALLING ACROSS THE DVN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY...MOST LIKELY SEVERE. THE ECM
SHOWS THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE
90S ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S BY MONDAY. HOWEVER THESE
READINGS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT
ACTUALLY ARRIVES.
NEXT WEEK...RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC/ARCTIC OSCILLATION ANOMALIES GO NEGATIVE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CANADA TO
SET UP SHOP. THIS PUTS THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MAX
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE 80S.
HAASE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTH AGAIN. WITH CAPES INCREASING IN THE SOUTH AND THE CAP
WEAKENING...CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MERGERS AND
CELLS THAT SPLIT. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME RUN OF THE MILL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ZFP THIS ISSUANCE BUT ONE WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THE 4PM ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
CURRENT RADAR AND VIS IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE I-75 AND ALONG THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THIS MORNING AND SO
HAVE UPDATED TO THROW SOME POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS ARE COMING IN A BIT UNSTABLE THIS MORNING AND THESE POPPING
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT. LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE HEAT
OF THE DAY SETS IN. THIS COUPLED WITH THE NAM AND RUC SHOWING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST. SO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER AND SENT OUT A NEW ZFP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
UPDATED SKY COVER GRIDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION EACH
DAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH FEATURES BEING WEAK...
PRECISELY WHERE IT OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN...AND AT THIS POINT THE
FORECAST WILL DEAL IN GENERALITY. WILL BE USING CHANCE POPS PEAKING
LATE IN THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE NAM HAS INDICATED A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVING SSW INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LARGE SPATIAL DIFFERENCE IN POPS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE HOT AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...BRINGING REINFORCING HEAT AS WELL AS MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTH TOWARDS THE COMMONWEALTH...ALLOWING FOR SOME BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR. DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE
CHALLENGING WITH HOW ALL OF THIS UNFOLDS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND
THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INHERITED FORECAST. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS FOR THE 21Z TO 01Z PERIOD. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY...WILL GO WITH A VFR OVERNIGHT FOR THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE SHOULD THEY GET A GOOD RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT MVFR AND IFR OVER RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THE FOURTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WIND
AND HAIL. THIS IDEA BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS,
COUPLED WITH HRRR SIMULATED RADAR PREDICTIONS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY JULY 4TH INDEPENDENCE DAY, BASED ON BLEND OF SREF
AND SPECIFIC WRF-NMM MODEL OUTPUT THAT SHOWS A SECOND
THUNDERSTORM BAND MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND A POSSIBLE THIRD BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON PREFERRED WARMER NAM
MOS. THIS NECESSITATED THE CONTINUATION OF THE IMPACTS-BASED HEAT
ADVISORY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR COUNTIES IN EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES REMAIN. THIS
IS FOR CRITERIA BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES. THE HEAT INDEX FOR SOME
OHIO COUNTIES CAN PEAK AT 102, WHICH EXCEEDS THE TYPICAL 100-DEGREE
CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS INCREASED RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT ENHANCE DAYTIME HEATING.
FORECASTED SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES HEDGING TOWARD WARMER NAM MOS
THURSDAY, AND WARMER ECMWF MOS FRIDAY, WHICH MEANS MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS CAN HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY AND MAINTAIN
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST READINGS ARE CLOSE TO
HPC NUMBERS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING
WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE
TREND...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OHIO AND WESTERN PA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS...BUT ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG
AND HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED STORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039-048-
057>059-068-069.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039-048-
057>059-068-069.
PA...NONE.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ004-012-
021>023.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ004-012-
021>023.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
103 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY CAUSE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF THE FOURTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPWARD ADJUSTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, PER BLEND OF
RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA, HRRR MODEL OUTPUT AND SPC
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70/.
MADE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE PROSPECT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AS INDICATED BY PREFERRED WARMER NAM MOS.
THE IMPACTS-BASED HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR COUNTIES
IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES REMAIN. THIS IS FOR CRITERIA BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ALLOWED FOR A GRADUAL DECLINE TOWARD EVENING
GIVEN CONSISTENT TIMING...WITH CESSATION OF PCPN BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY AND MAINTAIN
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST READINGS ARE CLOSE
TO HPC NUMBERS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORM. MODELS SHOW RIDGE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD DURING
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A DOWNWARD TREND OF A FEW
DEGREES.
A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS FOR TAF SITES SUCH AS KFKL, KPIT, KBVI, KAGC, AND
KHLG THROUGH 20Z. THIS WAS BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT RADAR DATA
AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION ELSEWHERE,
BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED BASED ON THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVEMENT INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE
OF BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR, EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY,
AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039-048-
057>059-068-069.
PA...NONE.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ004-012-
021>023.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV
MOVING THROUGH NE ND HAS TRIGGERED ANY SHRA/TSRA. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES WAS LOCATED WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SW INTO NE MN AND NE SD. THE GRADIENT REMAINED WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT
LAKE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED OFF OF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
DESPITE T/TD CLIMBING TO NEAR 93/64 INLAND WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE
2K-3K J/KG RANGE...CAPPING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION SO FAR WITH ONLY RELATIVELY SHALLOW CU OVER THE WEST AND
ALONG LAKE BREEZES OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A TSTM OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVBL. HOWEVER...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WAS MENTIONED GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY REMAINING PCPN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH/END BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WED...AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO CNTRL SASK...INCREASING
SRLY FLOW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT BACK
TOWARD THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUE SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 3K J/KG
NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT SHRTWVS ARE
FCST INTO THE AREA AND CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT TSRA
CHANCES. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE AGAIN INCLUDED OVER THE WEST CLOSEST TO
THE WARM FRONT AND 925-850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR WILL BE THURSDAY...AS THE 500MB
RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. THE 500MB LOW OVER N
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL CROSS INTO HUDSON BAY
AND N ONTARIO BY 06Z FRIDAY.
DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE FAR W THROUGH THE
BARAGA PLAINS...GIVEN THE QUICKER COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE SET
UP ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH IWD AND NW WI AT 12Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH E...AND SET UP JUST E OF THE
CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. DUE TO A FASTER SOLUTION DAY 2/3...THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WERE PUSHED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OR DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN...BUT ALSO DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWERED DEWPOINTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THAT WOULD BRING ABOUT MIN RH VALUES INTO
THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THEY FALL CLOSER TO OR BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LIMITED SHOWERS STILL IN THERE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT /THANKS TO THE WETTER ECMWF/ DO NOT PAN OUT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE THE RULE FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY
06Z SUNDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY REDEVELOP INLAND ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT KSAW
IN TAF. WITH LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP AT KCMX LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY LOWER
VBSYS/CIGS TO IFR. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR AT
BOTH KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST...ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE FA AT 19Z AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAY FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. CU
FIELD DOTS THE FA AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS IN EASTERN ND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
FA. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS REFLECTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF. DID ADD PATCHY FOG FROM 08Z TO 12Z
WHICH IS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS.
LOW PRESSURE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND ATTEMPTS
TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA. A SHORT WAVE WILL TRY
TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAKER VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT IN NW
WI THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS PICKED UP BY MOST OF THE MODELS AND HAVE
POPS INCREASING GRADUALLY.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH NE MN WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL BY 12Z NEAR NW WI. MEANWHILE...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA EARLY WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED...TRENDING DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES LARGE AMPLITUDE MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS CTRL
PLAINS THROUGH END OF WEEK. DURING THE WEEKEND MID LVL RIDGE AXIS
REDEVELOPS OVER WRN CONUS WITH A RELATIVE TROF OVER THE ERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY.THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER NW MID LVL FLOW
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP HOT WEATHER
LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. INITIAL SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CWA THURSDAY WITH DRYING/NO POPS SPREADING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. REINFORCING SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND INTO NRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND PWATS SOUTH OF REGION. POPS/QPF STILL
PROBLEMATIC AS MDL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS PRECIP ACROSS SRN HALF OF
CWA. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT 85H THETAE AXIS/WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE
ALONG SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES DURING FRIDAY/EARLY SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT AS REALITY MAY BE QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH REGARD TO WHERE RING OF CONVECTION ACTUALLY OCCURS.
IT MAY BE THAT CORRIDOR OF PRECIP IS MORE NARROW IN AREAL EXTENT AND
IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FCST. THIS WOULD CHANGE CURRENT
UNSETTLED FCST TO A DRIER THEME AROUND TWIN PORTS/IRON RANGE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES DURING
THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
WEAK SFC BDRY IS PUSHING ACROSS CWA WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING ACROSS NRN/WRN CWA. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD
IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF REGION. THIS
REGION RETURNS NORTH OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH LITTLE FORCING SEEMS
AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION...HI RES MDLS SUGGEST THAT
POSSIBILITY EXISTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT
CONVECTION IN MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT A CHANCE NEAR KBRD.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 70 82 68 87 / 10 20 20 10
INL 67 90 65 91 / 10 40 70 10
BRD 73 94 70 91 / 10 20 30 30
HYR 72 92 73 93 / 10 40 20 20
ASX 67 81 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ033-034-036-038.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.DISCUSSION...
BIG HEADLINE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE
THAT WILL BE ENVELOPING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPGRADED
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS MORNING...30 KT LLJ HAS BEE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE JET UP TOWARD
BRAINERD. HOWEVER...WITH A COUPLE THOUSAND J/KG OF MUCAPE SITTING
ACROSS SRN MN...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
LLJ. THIS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY OUTFLOW
PUSHING OUT OF THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THAT HAVE GONE ACROSS
NRN MN. BY 18Z...THE RAP BASICALLY HAS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE MPX AREA...SO THEREFORE EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO PUSH OUT OF THE MPX AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
BOWING SEGMENTS WE HAVE SEEN ON RADAR...STRONG WINDS WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH FOR A SHORT WHILE.
HEAT. SIGNIFICANT/HISTORIC HEAT WAVE WILL BE GRIPPING MUCH OF THE
MPX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH
99S AT MSP AND EAU...GAVE TEMPS A GOOD BOOST THRU THURSDAY. BEST
GUIDANCE FOR WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WAS THE BIAS CORRECTED
VERSION OF THE NAM...AND THE NUMBERS IT HAS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
ARE A BIT CONCERNING. WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON DEWPS MIX DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REALLY GET CRANKING.
FEELING PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE 100S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH WILL PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS UP TO 110. ADDING TO THE PROBLEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WHICH OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE 75
TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE URBAN CENTER OF
THE TWIN CITIES LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW 80 WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY
RAIN/OUTFLOW. GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE HEAT /4 DAYS
COUNTING MONDAY/...SAW NO REASON WHY WE SHOULD NOT UPGRADE THE
ADVISORY.
POPS WILL BE TRICKY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THANKS TO TEMPS UP AROUND 100 AND DEWPS
IN THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...A VERY WARM EML WITH H7 TEMPS UP
AROUND +14C WILL PROVIDE A VERY STOUT CAP FOR ANYTHING TO
OVERCOME. HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE MPX
AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHEN THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE
FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ONLY THING THAT COULD KEEP THE AREA
FROM BEING COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY IS IF WE
COULD GET SOME CONVECTION GOING WITHIN A LLJ AND WAA REGIME LIKE
THIS MORNING. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LLJ JET LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS AS
OPPOSED TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO CENTRAL MN.
CONCERN HERE IS THAT OFTEN TIMES WHEN YOU BURST A CAP TO END A
HEAT WAVE...THINGS CAN GET A BIT OUT OF HAND DUE THE INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THIS FRONT THEN STRUGGLES TO MOVE OUT OF THE MPX AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES FROM BEING
CENTERED UP THE MS VALLEY TO BEING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH FRI/SAT.
AGAIN...WILL STILL BE PLENTY WARM/HUMID FRIDAY TO CREATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT
EXISTING. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...PERSISTENT N WINDS SHOULD
STARTING PULLING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR...WITH SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING AS A RESULT. MORE IMPORTANT THOUGH THAN THE
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...THE HEAT WAVE WILL HAVE
BEEN BROKEN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FEW CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
LOWER CUMULUS SHOULD LIFT O AROUND 5K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE VERY WARM AIRMASS. CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH
ARE THINNING/ERODING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. OTHERWISE MORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DAKOTAS MAY WORK INTO THE AREA LATE
AFETRNOON/EVENING. SOME MODLES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
VC AT KAXN/KRWF/KSTC. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR
NOW. SOME MVFR HAZE AND BR POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN AREAS AFTER 07Z
WED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEPWOINTS REMAINING. THAT SHOULD ALL
BURN OFF THROUGH 13Z. WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH 18Z. WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN MN WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND LIFT BACK NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HAZE IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
PROBABILITY LOW AT THIS TIME. AHEAD LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
BEHIND BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT.
OUTLOOK...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. CHC SHOWER/TSTMS AFTERNOON/EVENG...WINDS S 10-20 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. SHIFTING WINDS...BECOMING NE
5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE
LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
MPG/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
606 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE A DIFFICULT
FORECAST...WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SUBTLE. AT 600 PM...THERE WAS TWO LINES OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE BOTH SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT
WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LITERALLY ALL OVER THE
PLACE...AND UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS LITTLE TO GATHER FROM THIS.
THE 18Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR PROVIDE SOME USEFUL GUIDANCE...BUT
STILL BOTH HAVE NOTABLE ERRORS IN VERIFICATION ALREADY. SO TAKING
A STEP BACK...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NOTABLE DRY SLOT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES...WITH THIS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LARGELY BRING AN END TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...IT WILL HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE MOST ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. FOLLOWING NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE...WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HERE
SHOULD MOVE ESE...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE RIGHT AND PERHAPS
CLIPPING FAR SW NEW YORK THIS EVENING. FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS
THESE TRENDS...BUT KEEP IN MIND...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SO
KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS UNTIL DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.
IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP SHEAR PROFILES STILL LOOK
FAVORABLE SO THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL WIND THREAT IF
CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF. BIGGEST THREAT MAY BE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...THIS RISK LOOKS TO BE GREATER
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT PERHAPS WILL CLIP FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...UNLESS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...WHILE CLOSER
TO THE LAKES AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON.
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST LOOKS UNCERTAIN FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
HOLIDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS NOT REALLY DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANT
THERMAL BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND AND MOISTURE FIELDS CLEARLY SHOW A BOUNDARY
WORKING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT
WILL GET TRIGGERED IS HARD TO SAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA IN A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS...BUT LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
OR PRECIPITATION COULD HAMPER SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CHANCE PROBABILITIES. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BUILD THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. VERY WARM DAY IN STORE WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S
WOULD PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY
BE OVER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK.
EXPECT THE SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE
WARM AND FEEL A BIT MUGGY AS THE WEAK FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A
DENT INTO DRYING OUT THE SURFACE LAYER. LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO MAYBE EVEN AROUND 70 ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING WHICH BROUGHT RECORD HIGHS TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WORKS INTO NEW YORK. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD FROM AROUND 586 DM TO
NEAR 591 DM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HEIGHTS SUGGEST EXPANDING
HEAT IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR 850 MB TEMPS WE ARE
LOOKING AT 14C TO 16C THURSDAY TO 19C TO 21C FOR FRIDAY. WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...MIXING THESE TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL YIELD HIGH
ON THURSDAY IN THE RANGE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NY
AND LOW 80S FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ON FRIDAY HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S LOOK LIKE A SURE BET. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JULY ARE
80F SO FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5F TO MAYBE AS MUCH AS
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON
THE WARM SIDE CLOSE TO THE LAKES WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO VALLEYS. WITH THE HOT
TEMPS OCCURRING FRIDAY...TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID. NUMBERS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 70 IN MANY SPOTS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ANY PRECIP IT MAY TRIGGER STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED. SEEMS THE
12Z NAM IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY AND BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS MERGING WITH A UPPER LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH INCREASING TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT PAIRED WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...SOME 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S WILL BE A RELIEF AFTER A FEW MUGGY
NIGHTS LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN AND WILL
TRACK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
JHW. OTHERWISE...ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGHT HERE MAY BE
PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHICH GET RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR IN TSRA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY...UNDER STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
FOR EARLY JULY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN QUITE MEAGER
CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT CU AND CONVECTION FLARING FURTHER INLAND
ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. HRRR SHOWS BEST CHC OF CONVECTION OVER OUR
LOCAL AREA WOULD BE IN THE GEORGETOWN WILLIAMSBURG AREA ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE STEERING
FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK OUT OF THE N-NW AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANY
STORMS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST WITH BEST CHC OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN BERMUDA
HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY CU BUILD
UP THIS AFTERNOON OR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO COME TO AN END
LATE THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPS UP BETWEEN 90 AND 95 MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL
INTO THE 70S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHERE IT COULD
BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIALIZATION OF CONVECTION ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. A PERSISTENT STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT
IT WILL NOT KEEP A TOTAL LID ON CONVECTION...IN FACT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE TROUGH-LIKE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARDS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG BOUNDARY
LEVEL HEATING WITH ATTENDANT STEEP LAPSE RATES ON BOTH DAYS WILL
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION WITH P/W VALUES
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
STILL UNCERTAIN SO HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL SCATTERED POPS FOR MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INCLUDING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP MAX
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY
MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S WELL INLAND. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID
70S BOTH DAYS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SOUTH AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WILL DETERMINE THE
POP/CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BEST OMEGA OCCURS EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE/NVA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSTM COVERAGE...BUT
FEEL INHERITED LOW-CHANCE IS WARRANTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER
IMPULSE. CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED...AND WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING FRIDAY NIGHT.
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
FOR THE WKND...BRINGING WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND A WEAK CAP TO
CONVECTION FOR THE WKND. WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SURFACE
PATTERN...THAT IS...BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH TO
THE WEST...THERE STILL MAY BE DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION EACH DAY
ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH VERY DRY AIR
PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING BENEATH THE
RIDGE...WILL CAP POPS AT LOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS SE EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN ERODING RIDGE
AND DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS SOLUTION EARLY MONDAY...BUT ECMWF
ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL ACT AS A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR RENEWED CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL
PUSH A FRONT (ALBEIT WITH LIMITED AIRMASS CHANGE) TOWARDS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL MECHANISM FOR TSTMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HVY RAINFALL WITHIN CONVECTION
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY SATURATED AIRMASS
(PWATS OVER 2 INCHES)...THE APPROACH OF A DIFLUENT JET REGION...AND
THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL SHOW TRWM AS WX TYPE SINCE
IT IS DAYS 6-7...BUT SIGNALS DO POINT TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DECENT RAINFALL MON/TUE.
MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND CLIMO FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...THEY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW 105F EXCEPT ON SUNDAY WHEN HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...GOOD CAPE...BUT STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LOOK FOR
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE RESULTANT. AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE TO KICK OFF A STORM
OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON...BOTH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
INLAND. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH POSSIBLE MVFR HAZE/FOG
AFTER 08Z. WEDNESDAY...THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE WERE
GUSTING ON SHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT LEADING UP TO SW
WINDS TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP FROM 2 FT TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MORNING. SEAS OF WILL BE COMPOSED OF S WAVES AROUND 2 FT AT 5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES ABOUT 1 FOOT EVERY 10 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF BOTH DAYS WILL KICK WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT DURING THE TIMES OF
SLACKEST WINDS TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY LATE EACH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENINGS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE AND AN
ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY. THIS CREATES SW WINDS...OF
10-15 KTS FRI/SAT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS SUNDAY AS GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE PINCHED DUE TO A STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FRI/SAT WITH A COMBINATION OF A 2FT/9SEC SE SWELL AND
4FT/5SEC SW WIND WAVE CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS. SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-5 FT...WITH STEEPER
OVERALL FACES SINCE THE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT IN THE
WAVE SPECTRUM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...THE FULL MOON TODAY WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS MAINLY IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM AND 1 AM IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON OCCURRING ABOUT AN HOUR LATER WITH EACH PASSING
DAY. PEOPLE GATHERING FOR THE FIRE-WORKS WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON MAY OBSERVE OR EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF WATER STREET AND BATTLESHIP ROAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
FOR EARLY JULY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN QUITE MEAGER CLOSER
TO THE COAST BUT CU AND CONVECTION FLARING FURTHER INLAND ALONG
PIEDMONT TROUGH. HRRR SHOWS BEST CHC OF CONVECTION OVER OUR LOCAL
AREA WOULD BE IN THE GEORGETOWN WILLIAMSBURG AREA ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. OVERALL EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE STEERING FLOW
REMAINS VERY WEAK OUT OF THE N-NW AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANY STORMS
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST WITH BEST CHC OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN BERMUDA
HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY CU BUILD
UP THIS AFTERNOON OR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO COME TO AN END
LATE THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPS UP BETWEEN 90 AND 95 MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL
INTO THE 70S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...ACROSS THE FA DURING
ROUGHLY THE PAST 5 DAYS...HAVING RETROGRADED AND MESHED WITH THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
NE STATES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST
COAST...THUS PROVIDING MAINLY A W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW
THROUGH 7H MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM
PUSHING WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE
A 5H S/W TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING AND AFFECTING THE FA
DURING THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS WELL AS THE
AVAILABLE SFC FEATURES...PIEDMONT TROF AND SEA BREEZE...WILL PROVIDE
THE FORCING NEEDED FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL ADJUST THURSDAY
POPS TO AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT...WHICH IS BASICALLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO.
FOR WEDNESDAY POPS...HAVE GONE WITH CLIMO OR LOWER.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES...NAM MOS
GUIDANCE THIS SHORT TERM. THINKING IS THE NW FLOW ALOFT...A
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL OFFSET THE COOLER
READINGS RESULTING FROM THE UPPER TROF AFFECTING THE FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE S/W
UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FA VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EUROPEAN...AND IS THE PREFERRED
LONG TERM MODEL. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE FA IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER S/W BY MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR SUN AND MON...THE LONG TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE WITH THE
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER TROF...WHICH IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESEMBLE A WINTER
TYPE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WILL INDICATE AT LEAST CLIMO POPS FOR
SUNDAY...HIER ON MONDAY DUE TO FORCING FROM POSSIBLE S/W TROFS ALOFT
PUSHING ACROSS THE FA...AND AIDING THE EXPANDING UPPER TROF.
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIER THAN CLIMO FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY WITH DECENT NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...GOOD CAPE...BUT STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LOOK FOR
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE RESULTANT. AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE TO KICK OFF A STORM
OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON...BOTH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
INLAND. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH POSSIBLE MVFR HAZE/FOG
AFTER 08Z. WEDNESDAY...THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE WERE
GUSTING ON SHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT LEADING UP TO SW
WINDS TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP FROM 2 FT TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MORNING. SEAS OF WILL BE COMPOSED OF S WAVES AROUND 2 FT AT 5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES ABOUT 1 FOOT EVERY 10 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT /...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC RIDGING FROM THE CENTER
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF...AND AT THE SAME TIME THE PIEDMONT TROF WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THE 2 FEATURES COMBINED WILL YIELD A SW WIND
10-15 KT INITIALLY...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER S/W TROF
WILL PROVIDE THE TIGHTENING SFC PG. SIG SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY...WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OFF
CAPE FEAR. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WAVES...A 1.5
TO 2.5 FT...BETTER THAN CLIMO...ESE GROUND SWELL AT 10 SECOND
PERIODS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W TROF TO
THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SFC PG WHICH WILL LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY DURING FRIDAY AND
LIKELY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KT. SIG SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS THE WIND DRIVEN WAVE
PORTION SUBSIDES. THE 9-10 SECOND PERIOD ESE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THAT 1.5 TO 2.5 FT RANGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE FULL MOON TODAY WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS MAINLY IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM AND 1 AM IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON OCCURRING ABOUT AN HOUR LATER WITH EACH PASSING
DAY. PEOPLE GATHERING FOR THE FIRE-WORKS WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON MAY OBSERVE OR EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF WATER STREET AND BATTLESHIP ROAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
WEST WILL KEEP THE OHIO VALLEY VERY WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG
THE TAIL END OF A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. LACK OF CU FIELD WEST OF THE COLUMBUS AREA
WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REMAIN CONFINED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DELAWARE
TO SCIOTO COUNTIES.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...AND THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...HAVE REMOVED
POPS BY MIDNIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THIS EVENING
...AND BRINGING ITS WEAKENING REMNANTS INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
BEFORE SUNRISE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE ONLY
FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
USED A BLEND OF ARW/ECMWF FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH COMPONENT TO THE PROPAGATION OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS OF A DISTURBANCE TO DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ARW
AND NAM...BUT NOT BY THE NMM. BASED ON HOW WELL THE ARW PERFORMED
24 HORUS OUT FOR THE PAST TWO EVENTS THIS WEEK...HAVE UPPED THE
POPS TO 50 FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. AVOIDED GOING ANY HIGHER FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS DURING THESE
MODES OF CONVECTION.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TOMORROW GIVEN THE
LOW TO MID 90S SEEN TODAY...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AS WELL. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES UP TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. AND...AT THE SAME TIME
SEVERAL COUNTIES STILL HAVE REDUCED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO
ONGOING POWER OUTAGES FROM SEVERE STORMS THIS PAST WEEKEND. ALL OF
THE ABOVE COMBINED TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MONTGOMERY AND HAMILTON FROM NOON ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD FOR HAMILTON AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY
NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN AN
AREA OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
STILL AFFECTING THE CWA...AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LOWS ABOVE 70 DEGREES AND A FORECAST
SOLIDLY SUPPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR EACH OF THESE
THREE DAYS...THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...IT WOULD BE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD...GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORCING SIGNALS ARE UNCERTAIN...AND MOST OF
THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN LEFT DRY IN THE GRIDS.
BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH INDICATING THE BEGINNING OF A
TRANSITION. A BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND THEIR
SUBSEQUENT RUNS DO NOT ALLOW FOR COMPLETE CERTAINTY...IT IS OBVIOUS
THAT THE TREND WILL BE FOR COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE USED FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ONE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IS IF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES...AND THIS
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO BE REFINED ONCE THE FRONTAL TIMING IS MORE
CERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING THE CU BECOMING A BIT MORE
DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE COLUMBUS AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT KCMH/KLCK TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANYTHING...BUT PROBABILITY STILL APPEARS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THEIR TAFS. WILL ALLOW ANY CU TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK. SCATTERED CU
SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-
078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
077.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR OHZ061-077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST THRU THE CWA WILL CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD. WITH A HOT AND HUMID AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS WILL BE DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. AS
USUAL IN THIS REGIME...THE HI RES MODELS WERE USED VERY HEAVILY.
THE HRRR HI RES MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE A COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS...SO WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS EVENING IN NORTHEASTERN WV.
OTHERWISE...CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES AND SLIGHT CHAN
TONIGHT.
GOING ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY WOULD VARY THAT.
&&
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE 4TH OF JULY FOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. THE EXACT
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION IS IN QUESTION.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ONLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM. ONCE AGAIN...THE CWA IS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW IS
NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SOUTHWEST. HAVE FOLLOWED
HPC AND KEPT HOT TEMPS AND CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE MID WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON TSTMS MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE TAIL END OF AN MCS THAT MAY CLIP NORTHEASTERN WV LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MAINLY CKB AND EKN.
OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 07Z
TO 12Z WED...EXPECT VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOST ORGANIZED AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDS ON MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOG TIMING EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY MAY
VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>032.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE DAY AND EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS LAKE ERIE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE.
HOWEVER...WOULD THINK POPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...DUE TO POSSIBLE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
FROM ONGOING PCPN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 90S. NO CHANGES MADE TO
HEADLINES WITH HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD BE A BUILDING CAP...PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT FEEL THAT I COULD RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN ANY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY AND ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE POSTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CONSISTENTLY BEING FORECAST AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 70 DUE TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS. THOUGHT THAT THIS WAS A
LITTLE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP. EVEN WITH
THIS...DECIDED TO ERR ON THE WARM SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL SPREAD BACK EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISTURBANCES SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD RESULT
IN STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BUT BY FRIDAY THE HIGH MAY CAP
OFF THOSE CHANCES.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL START TO GET SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVES DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. A FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF STORMS FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. RELATIVELY
COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING THE CU BECOMING A BIT MORE
DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE COLUMBUS AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT KCMH/KLCK TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANYTHING...BUT PROBABILITY STILL APPEARS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THEIR TAFS. WILL ALLOW ANY CU TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK. SCATTERED CU
SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT A LOOP OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAVE HELD DOWN MAX TEMPS. STILL A FEW AREAS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW 90S AND WITH THE HEATING A FEW ISO STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR MOST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY ISO WITH NOT MUCH INCREASE IN COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD END
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
SO WILL WE HAVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY? WELL LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SCT
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AT LEAST WEST AND SOUTH OF HOUSTON METRO. GFS
STILL HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. UPPER RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE C PLAINS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE C GULF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP SUBSIDENCE AT A MINIMUM AND ALLOW FOR
PULSE CONVECTION. THINK THAT 30 POPS FOR THE AREAS ALONG US 59 SW
OF HOUSTON LOOKS GOOD WITH 20 POPS ELSEWHERE. DO NOT THINK
CONVECTION WILL LAST MUCH PAST THE LATE EVENING SO MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE A MINIMUM DRYING OUT BEFORE ANY FIREWORKS.
LONG TERM FORECAST IS BECOMING A BIT MORE INTERESTING AND
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. SAT INTO SUN THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE MID MISS RIVER BASIN SHOULD RETROGRADE BACK AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE INTO SE
TX FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE TX MON MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD GROW
DEEPER DURING THIS TIME FROM THE EAST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
REACH MORE THAN 2 INCHES. THIS AIRMASS HOLDS ONTO THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS EVEN SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO TX. ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BUT
SOMETHING THAT COULD STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK GOOD AND PLACED 30 POPS WHERE
CONVECTION LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT THIS POINT AND ALIGNED WITH BEST
MOISTURE AXIS.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.90
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL ALSO SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING INLAND ON THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
RELUCTANCE...DECIDED TO ADD VCSH FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TAF
SITES FROM 21-01Z. 43
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW ONSHORE WINDS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. A WEAK
GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MARINE
AREAS BOTH DAYS. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 96 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 95 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 81 91 80 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1214 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.90
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL ALSO SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING INLAND ON THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
RELUCTANCE...DECIDED TO ADD VCSH FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TAF
SITES FROM 21-01Z. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AFTER SOME UPPER AIR AND SFC ANALYSIS IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH 590DM HEIGHTS OVER THE S ROCKIES
TO THE PLAINS AND THEN ALONG THE N GULF COAST. IN BETWEEN THERE IS
A SLIGHT WEAKNESS WITH A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER OVER THE ARKLATEX.
AT THE SURFACE A 1018MB SFC HIGH WAS OVER THE N GULF AS WELL WITH
LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE ROCKIES SUPPORTING SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
TX. 12Z LCH SOUNDING HAD 1.9 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH MAY BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR SE TX WHERE CRP HAD 1.7 INCHES. THIS SEEMS
MORE TYPICAL FOR THE AREA BUT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH HEATING. THAT COULD BE THE ISSUE AS
THERE IS DECENT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF SE TX FROM VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THIS MAY BE HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH IN THE MID 80S.
LOW 90S ARE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT MAY NOT BE QUITE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. ALSO WITHOUT GOOD HEATING...WILL
NOT GET STRONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE MAIN
FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO DROP POPS TO 20 AND MENTION ISO STORMS.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT MAY TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT CONVECTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 96 75 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 94 76 95 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 82 91 81 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43