Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/02/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
350 PM MST SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON
PATTERN IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN MCV NEAR PUERTO PENASCO...WHICH
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FAILED TO
INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE...THOUGH HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF AND RAP HAVE INDEED CAPTURED THE PRESENCE OF THE VORT. ONLY
SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OTHERWISE...FLOW GENERALLY
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
EASTERN AZ AND POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ROUGHLY A DEGREE COOLER
FOR SUNDAY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SONORA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHARP INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MIXING RATIOS MON-TUE ACROSS AZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. POPS WERE INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY FROM PHOENIX SOUTH AND EASTWARD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PINAL COUNTY...TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED. AT THE VERY LEAST...BLOWING DUST
FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TUCSON APPEARS LIKELY...AND THIS WAS
INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST FOR PINAL COUNTY. INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WED...THOUGH THE CONVECTION MAY
BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THU...WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY MORE
MOIST THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH FUELS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. EVEN THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND POPS WERE
INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
WED-THU...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
KIPL...KBLH...KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10KT AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z MONDAY/2 JULY. SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KPHX/KIWA/KBLH...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING NEAR KIPL...SETTLING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN FOR MOST
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE A WESTWARD PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. SO...THE LOWER DESERTS WEST OF THE
COLORADO RIVER MAY REMAIN QUITE DRY OTHER THAN SHOWING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RECOVERY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERALL...BUT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER
THAT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAVEL CONSIDERABLE
DISTANCES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY
AZZ022-023-027-028.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
601 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE
WITHIN THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM GOING INTO THIS EVENING...SEA BREEZE INTRODUCING
AT LEAST 10 DEGREE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM THE OCEAN. WITH THE HEAT
ADVISORY KEPT AS IS WITH THE THINKING THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME
SPOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST LIKE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CITY THAT
WOULD BE COOLING A FEW DEGREES BUT WOULD HAVE A HIGHER JUMP WITH
THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING IN THAT WOULD RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES OF NEAR 95 DEGREES. DESPITE THIS BEING
MARGINAL...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MESONET OBSERVATIONS COMING IN
PARTS OF THE CITY WITH A TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBINATION RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 99 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OBS
HAVE BEEN STAYING MORE IN THE 90-95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX RANGE. THESE
SHOULD ALL BE ON A LOWERING TREND BY 21-23Z.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET NEAR 250 MB STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A SECOND 500MB PERTURBATION APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT ITS PVA IS OF
LESS MAGNITUDE THAN THE ONE MOVING IN THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER ONE
THIS EVENING WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION.
THIS IS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS AND
SREF WITH RESPECT TO THE MCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LAST NIGHT.
THIS WAS USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE HRRR FOR THE PRECIP FORECAST.
WITH THE LACK OF QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL PRECIP FIELDS...JUST LEFT
AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. WITHOUT MUCH FORCING
ALOFT...THIS CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND HENCE CAPE.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITHOUT MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOW. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION STAYS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A MODEL BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN FOR LOWS WHICH WILL
VARY FROM THE 70S NEAR THE CITY TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WITHIN THE
REGION. SFC FLOW OUT OF THE WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST WILL BE
TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST AT THE COASTLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LOWERING AS A
PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FILLING IN WITHIN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. USED HIGH TEMPS FROM THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE
WITH MORE WEIGHT THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE. WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS
ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY AND VERY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGH TEMPS...HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT NEAR 95 DEGREES
SO KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CITY.
WENT WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WITH BETTER BULK SHEAR
OF ABOUT 30-35 KT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE AREA.
SPC HAS THE REGION IN A 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS SHOWN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OF
75-80 KT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A LONGER WAVELENGTH
SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY. THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF 20-30M. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MARK A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. MAV/MET BLEND USED
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY OCEAN BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY - WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
THINGS BASICALLY DRY - THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING - WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN
ALOFT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH DRY BUT
INCREASINGLY WARM-HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY - WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD
OF IT.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-SATURDAY...
USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 725 HPA - COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MIXING DOWN FROM 650 HPA AND GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 800 HPA - WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDE. THE
RESULT IS HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH BIAS
CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE - YIELDING VALUES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH A MIX
DOWN FROM 800 HPA FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY - WITH VALUES AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF
EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH HPC GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY-SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE
THE AIR TEMPERATURE UNTIL MAYBE SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION UNLIKELY AS
PATCH OF BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS AND LIMITS
INSTABILITY.
COASTAL SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY TO REACH KLGA WHERE W WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING JUST SHY OF 20 KT. THAT SAID...THERE COULD BACK WSW INTO
EARLY EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AFTER
12Z-13Z SUNDAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EACH DAY EXCEPT TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH...SO LOWERED
THIS BY A FOOT IN THE NEAR TERM. GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LACK OF ANY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE.
WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST OVER THE REGION -
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM
MONDAY-THURSDAY. IN GENERAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOT A LOT OF QPF IS FORECAST...WITH TOTAL BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
LESS THEN 1/10 INCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
IS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS
PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WED. BASIN AVERAGE QPF LIKELY
WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY JULY 1:
.LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
.CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
.LAGUARDIA NY............97.............97.......1964
.KENNEDY NY..............91............102.......1963
.NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
.ISLIP NY................92.............87.......2001
.BRIDGEPORT CT...........92.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MET
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE
WITHIN THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM GOING INTO THIS EVENING...SEA BREEZE INTRODUCING AT
LEAST 10 DEGREE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM THE OCEAN. WITH THE HEAT
ADVISORY KEPT AS IS WITH THE THINKING THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME SPOTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST LIKE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CITY THAT WOULD BE
COOLING A FEW DEGREES BUT WOULD HAVE A HIGHER JUMP WITH THE
DEWPOINTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMING IN THAT WOULD RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OF NEAR 95 DEGREES. DESPITE THIS BEING MARGINAL...THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME MESONET OBSERVATIONS COMING IN PARTS OF THE CITY WITH A
TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBINATION RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 99
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OBS HAVE BEEN STAYING MORE IN THE
90-95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX RANGE. THESE SHOULD ALL BE ON A LOWERING
TREND BY 21-23Z.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET NEAR 250 MB STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A SECOND 500MB PERTURBATION APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT ITS PVA IS OF
LESS MAGNITUDE THAN THE ONE MOVING IN THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER ONE
THIS EVENING WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION.
THIS IS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS AND
SREF WITH RESPECT TO THE MCS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LAST NIGHT.
THIS WAS USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE HRRR FOR THE PRECIP FORECAST.
WITH THE LACK OF QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL PRECIP FIELDS...JUST LEFT
AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. WITHOUT MUCH FORCING
ALOFT...THIS CONVECTION WOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND HENCE CAPE.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITHOUT MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOW. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION STAYS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A MODEL BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN FOR LOWS WHICH WILL
VARY FROM THE 70S NEAR THE CITY TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION.
SFC FLOW OUT OF THE WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST WILL BE TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AT THE COASTLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LOWERING AS A PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FILLING IN WITHIN SOUTHEAST
CANADA. USED HIGH TEMPS FROM THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH MORE
WEIGHT THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE. WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY AND VERY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS...HEAT
INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT NEAR 95 DEGREES SO KEPT THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE CITY.
WENT WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WITH BETTER BULK SHEAR
OF ABOUT 30-35 KT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE AREA.
SPC HAS THE REGION IN A 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS SHOWN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OF
75-80 KT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A LONGER WAVELENGTH
SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY. THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF 20-30M. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MARK A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. MAV/MET BLEND USED
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY OCEAN BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY - WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
THINGS BASICALLY DRY - THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING - WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN
ALOFT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH DRY BUT
INCREASINGLY WARM-HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY - WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD
OF IT.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-SATURDAY...
USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 725 HPA - COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MIXING DOWN FROM 650 HPA AND GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 800 HPA - WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDE. THE
RESULT IS HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH BIAS
CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE - YIELDING VALUES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH A MIX
DOWN FROM 800 HPA FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY - WITH VALUES AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECWMF
EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH HPC GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY-SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE
THE AIR TEMPERATURE UNTIL MAYBE SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA
BREEZE HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST AROUND 16Z...AND A
SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND AT 17Z. WINDS AT KJFK A LITTLE DIFFICULT WITH THE TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY AND THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING...AND HAVE LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH.
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS...REMAINING
WESTERLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN
SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH...SO LOWERED
THIS BY A FOOT IN THE NEAR TERM. GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LACK OF ANY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE.
WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST OVER THE REGION -
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM
MONDAY-THURSDAY. IN GENERAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOT A LOT OF QPF IS FORECAST WITH TOTAL BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES BUT EXPECT THIS TO
BE ISOLATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY...BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH - HOWEVER LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY JULY 1:
..LOCATION........FORECAST HIGH.......RECORD HIGH.......YEAR....
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94................100...........1901....
LAGUARDIA NY............97.................97...........1964....
KENNEDY NY..............91................102...........1963....
NEWARK NJ...............97................100...........1963....
ISLIP NY................92.................87...........2001....
BRIDGEPORT CT...........92.................95...........1963....
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO END THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH OVER SE
CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AND THEREFORE DRIER AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
WARMER AIR FROM VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 800 MB EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UP A DEGREE IN A FEW
SPOTS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...STILL
EXPECTING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S SO WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY
FOR NEW YORK CITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS ONCE THE SEA BREEZE STARTS TO MOVE IN AND BRINGS IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SPOTS WHERE VERTICAL MIXING IS NOT
AS EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD END UP HAVING
HEAT INDICES JUST BEING IN THE LOWER 90S.
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING
NEAR THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AS CONVEYED BY SOME PVA...THIS
WILL PROBABLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS DESPITE THE LACK OF QPF SIGNAL FROM
THE NAM AND GFS WITH THEIR LAST RUNS. HRRR IS STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD...WITH VALUES OF CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200
AND 700 J/KG FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AT LEAST
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH.
IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL QUITE WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE MCS PASSES EITHER JUST SOUTH...OR HAS A
BIGGER IMPACT ON THE AREA. PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON
THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AGAIN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW...AND POPS
WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
AGAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH 60S TO 70S
AT NIGHT...AND 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUAL COOLING AND
DRYING WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES OCCURRING DURING TUE. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON BASED
ON SFC AND LOW LVL BASED INSTABILITY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THIS APPEARS TO BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WEST AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SERIES OF MCS MOVING SE DOWN THE RIDGE. IN A MOIST MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE
OF HIGH FCST UNCERTAINTY...ONLY 20 PCT POP IS IN THE FCST FOR NOW.
STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA
BREEZE HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST AROUND 16Z...AND A
SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND AT 17Z. WINDS AT KJFK A LITTLE DIFFICULT WITH THE TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY AND THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING...AND HAVE LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH.
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS...REMAINING
WESTERLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN
SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SWELL FROM WHAT IS LEFTOVER FROM DEBBY
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OCEAN SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 RANGE. COULD SEE
BRIEF 5 FOOTERS TODAY OVER THE OCEAN ZONES.
NEXT WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIMITS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD UNFOLD IF AN MCS WORKS
INTO THE REGION...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SATURDAY JUNE 30:
..LOCATION........FORECAST HIGH.......RECORD HIGH.......YEAR....
CENTRAL PARK NY.........93.................99...........1964....
LAGUARDIA NY............95.................97...........1964....
KENNEDY NY..............94.................99...........1964....
NEWARK NJ...............99.................99...........1964....
ISLIP NY................92.................89...........2001....
BRIDGEPORT CT...........92.................94...........1959....
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY JULY 1:
..LOCATION........FORECAST HIGH.......RECORD HIGH.......YEAR....
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94................100...........1901....
LAGUARDIA NY............96.................97...........1964....
KENNEDY NY..............93................102...........1963....
NEWARK NJ...............96................100...........1963....
ISLIP NY................91.................87...........2001....
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.................95...........1963....
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO END THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH OVER SE
CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AND THEREFORE DRIER AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
WARMER AIR FROM VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 800 MB EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UP AND DOWN A DEGREE
IN A FEW SPOTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWN NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT STILL EXPECTING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SO
WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY FOR NEW YORK CITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ONCE THE SEA BREEZE STARTS TO
MOVE IN AND BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING
NEAR THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AS CONVEYED BY SOME PVA...THIS
WILL PROBABLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS DESPITE THE LACK OF QPF SIGNAL FROM
THE NAM AND GFS WITH THEIR LAST RUNS. HRRR IS STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD...WITH VALUES OF CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200
AND 700 J/KG FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AT LEAST
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH.
IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL QUITE WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE MCS PASSES EITHER JUST SOUTH...OR HAS A
BIGGER IMPACT ON THE AREA. PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON
THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AGAIN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW...AND POPS
WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
AGAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH 60S TO 70S
AT NIGHT...AND 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR NYC.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUAL COOLING AND
DRYING WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES OCCURRING DURING TUE. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON BASED
ON SFC AND LOW LVL BASED INSTABILITY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THIS APPEARS TO BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WEST AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SERIES OF MCS MOVING SE DOWN THE RIDGE. IN A MOIST MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE
OF HIGH FCST UNCERTAINTY...ONLY 20 PCT POP IS IN THE FCST FOR NOW.
STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA
BREEZE HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST AROUND 16Z...AND A
SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND AT 17Z. WINDS AT KJFK A LITTLE DIFFICULT WITH THE TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY AND THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING...AND HAVE LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH.
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS...REMAINING
WESTERLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN
SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SWELL FROM WHAT IS LEFTOVER FROM DEBBY
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OCEAN SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 RANGE. COULD SEE
BRIEF 5 FOOTERS TODAY OVER THE OCEAN ZONES.
NEXT WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIMITS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD UNFOLD IF AN MCS WORKS
INTO THE REGION...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SATURDAY JUNE 30:
..LOCATION........FORECAST HIGH.......RECORD HIGH.......YEAR....
CENTRAL PARK NY.........93.................99...........1964....
LAGUARDIA NY............95.................97...........1964....
KENNEDY NY..............94.................99...........1964....
NEWARK NJ...............99.................99...........1964....
ISLIP NY................92.................89...........2001....
BRIDGEPORT CT...........92.................94...........1959....
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY JULY 1:
..LOCATION........FORECAST HIGH.......RECORD HIGH.......YEAR....
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94................100...........1901....
LAGUARDIA NY............96.................97...........1964....
KENNEDY NY..............93................102...........1963....
NEWARK NJ...............96................100...........1963....
ISLIP NY................91.................87...........2001....
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.................95...........1963....
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO END THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH OVER SE
CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AND THEREFORE DRIER AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
WARMER AIR FROM VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 800 MB EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UP AND DOWN A DEGREE
IN A FEW SPOTS. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWN NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT STILL EXPECTING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SO
WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY FOR NEW YORK CITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ONCE THE SEA BREEZE STARTS TO
MOVE IN AND BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING
NEAR THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AS CONVEYED BY SOME PVA...THIS
WILL PROBABLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS DESPITE THE LACK OF QPF SIGNAL FROM
THE NAM AND GFS WITH THEIR LAST RUNS. HRRR IS STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD...WITH VALUES OF CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200
AND 700 J/KG FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AT LEAST
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH.
IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL QUITE WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE MCS PASSES EITHER JUST SOUTH...OR HAS A
BIGGER IMPACT ON THE AREA. PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON
THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AGAIN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW...AND POPS
WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
AGAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH 60S TO 70S
AT NIGHT...AND 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR NYC.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUAL COOLING AND
DRYING WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES OCCURRING DURING TUE. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON BASED
ON SFC AND LOW LVL BASED INSTABILITY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THIS APPEARS TO BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WEST AND NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SERIES OF MCS MOVING SE DOWN THE RIDGE. IN A MOIST MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE
OF HIGH FCST UNCERTAINTY...ONLY 20 PCT POP IS IN THE FCST FOR NOW.
STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...TO THE LEFT OF 310...EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT KJFK AND KLGA AS
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AT 25 TO 30 KT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IF WINDS DO COME AROUND WOULD BE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONFIDENCE OF ANY STORMS ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-TUE...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...TSTMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SWELL FROM WHAT IS LEFTOVER FROM DEBBY
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OCEAN SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 RANGE. COULD SEE
BRIEF 5 FOOTERS TODAY OVER THE OCEAN ZONES.
NEXT WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIMITS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD UNFOLD IF AN MCS WORKS
INTO THE REGION...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SATURDAY JUNE 30:
..LOCATION........FORECAST HIGH.......RECORD HIGH.......YEAR....
CENTRAL PARK NY.........93.................99...........1964....
LAGUARDIA NY............95.................97...........1964....
KENNEDY NY..............94.................99...........1964....
NEWARK NJ...............99.................99...........1964....
ISLIP NY................92.................89...........2001....
BRIDGEPORT CT...........92.................94...........1959....
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY JULY 1:
..LOCATION........FORECAST HIGH.......RECORD HIGH.......YEAR....
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94................100...........1901....
LAGUARDIA NY............96.................97...........1964....
KENNEDY NY..............93................102...........1963....
NEWARK NJ...............96................100...........1963....
ISLIP NY................91.................87...........2001....
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.................95...........1963....
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
757 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND HEAT
AGAIN ON MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH. HRRR FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
EARLIER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE WRF AND NAM SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER AFTER WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING... BUT ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AGAIN. WHILE SPC HAD MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY... ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTED MONDAY... HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS... WHILE TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED... GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
TRENDS. MONDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE THE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY... DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WILL STILL WARRANT AT
LEAST THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REACH HEAT
INDICES OF 110-113 DEGREES THEREFORE A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME RELIEF HERE AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE STATE
WILL BREAK DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WILL NOT QUITE GET INTO THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES WHILE IN THIS
PATTERN BUT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS.
EVEN WITHOUT FRONT...ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESP AS MEAN RH INCREASES ON THURS.
PREV FCST NO TOO FAR OFF. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ON TUES
AND WED AS CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PULLING DOWN GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM ON TUES IF DEW
POINTS DONT MIX OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONTINUED. HAVENT FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE TROPICS EITHER. ATLANTIC
BASIN LOOKS QUIET PER THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...SOME ACTION LIKELY
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT HERE.
SNELSON
FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTH
AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. THE LOWEST RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY 10 MPH OR LESS...THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OR
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MONDAY.
BAKER
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. THERE ARE SOME OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL AFFECT ATL BUT SHOULD ONLY SEE GUSTY WINDS.
ALL IN ALL THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH 03Z VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AFTER THAT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTER 20Z. THERE IS STILL ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO HAVE ONLY PUT IN A PROB30
BETWEEN 20Z-24Z MON. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY NW BUT COULD GO VRB
IN AND AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN THE
5-10KT RANGE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN TSRA
DEVELOPMENT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 102 72 99 / 20 20 20 30
ATLANTA 77 99 75 95 / 30 20 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 73 93 67 91 / 20 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 72 100 70 96 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 78 100 75 96 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 76 99 73 96 / 20 20 20 30
MACON 74 101 73 97 / 30 30 30 30
ROME 73 103 70 98 / 30 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 72 98 71 96 / 30 20 20 30
VIDALIA 78 99 78 96 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
524 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TRYING TO APPROACH ORD...REMAINING EAST OF
MDW.
* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA TO POP UP ALONG LAKE BREEZE JUST
EAST OF TERMINALS NEXT FEW HOURS.
* CHANCES FOR TSRA SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INLAND TOWARDS
ORD AND REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE SHORELINE EAST OF MDW. HAVE SLOWED
THE ARRIVAL TIME AT ORD AND IT STILL MAY NOT MAKE IT AT ALL.
SHOULD IT MAKE IT TO THE FIELD IT MAY NOT MOVE BEYOND IT AND MAY
START TO RETREAT TO THE EAST AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE START
TO INCREASE MODESTLY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPING NEAR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BUT THE CHANCE IS VERY
LOW.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. ONE
AREA OF TSRA HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNADRY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE TSRA SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF ALL THE
TERMINALS.
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH AROSS THE NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...THE LAKE BREEZE MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AREAS THAT GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FOG SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR
FOG ARE LOW AND SO HAVE NOT CARRIED IN THE TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
PAW
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE REACHING ORD...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE
BREEZE IS LOW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 TO
15 KT TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THESE PERIODS OF
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES TO DOMINATE THE WIND
FIELDS CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND TURNING THE WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST.
* LOW CHANCE FOR TSRA WITH THE LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
PAW
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. ONE
AREA OF TSRA HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNADRY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE TSRA SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF ALL THE
TERMINALS.
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH AROSS THE NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...THE LAKE BREEZE MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AREAS THAT GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FOG SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW THE CHANCES FOR
FOG ARE LOW AND SO HAVE NOT CARRIED IN THE TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
PAW
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.
PAW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
* MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 TO
15 KT TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THESE PERIODS OF
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES TO DOMINATE THE WIND
FIELDS CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1008 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE THIS MORNING TO EXTEND LOW CHANCE POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS SETTLED INTO THE KILX CWA...WITH 15Z
SATELLITE/RADAR DATA SHOWING ITS CURRENT LOCATION FROM JUST NORTH
OF PARIS TO NEAR TAYLORVILLE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO FELT POPS WERE WARRANTED TO NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN A HOT/DRY
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST CWA. BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HRRR MODEL GENERALLY
SHOWS CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS N/NW OF THE PEORIA AREA
TRACKING E/SE INTO INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY 40 POPS
ACROSS THE N/NE CWA FROM PEORIA TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TARGET...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
90S FAR NORTH...TO OVER 105 DEGREES SOUTH OF I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK E/SE ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. 16Z RAPID REFRESH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SITUATION...SO WILL TREND TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST. STORMS ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KGBG
AND KPIA WILL SHIFT E/SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING INTO INDIANA BY EARLY EVENING. BASED ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO THUNDER AT KPIA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
FURTHER EAST...WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KBMI AND KCMI UNTIL
CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS FURTHER EAST...WILL END THUNDER CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KSPI AND KDEC.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO OCCURRING NEAR
CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE AROUND 130 AM ON ONE OF THE OUTFLOWS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTFLOW WAS GENERALLY JUST
NORTH OF A PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE...WITH WINDS BEHIND IT
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE ANTICS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH FLORA AND OLNEY BOTH SEEING TEMPS
JUMP 5-7 DEGREES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM...AND EFFINGHAM GOING UP 5
DEGREES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES...AS THE FORMER WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LATTER.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
IOWA WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING. EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW FAST
THE CURRENT STORMS DIMINISH...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE.
WILL SEE DEW POINTS POOLING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO CAPES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF A
BEARDSTOWN TO DANVILLE LINE TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG
THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
EVENING MODELS SHOWING A SERIES OF MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THE PRIMARY RECIPIENTS.
TIMING TONIGHT IS NOT AS CONSISTENT AMONG THE MODELS...SO WILL
NOT TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN WITH EVENING VS OVERNIGHT WORDING. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS CAPES AGAIN REACH 3000-4000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY BOTH HAVE SLIGHT RISKS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY
MONDAY... UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE BUILDING TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHUNTING THE MCS ACTIVITY MORE TO OUR
EAST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THINK THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE NORTHERN CWA SLIGHTLY COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...AS OPPOSED TO THE 100+ ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WILL DOWNGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO BLOOMINGTON LINE...REPLACING IT WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY. WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE
GONE WITH TEMPS 105 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WHERE
MORE MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE...AND 100-105 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...BUT QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE OUTFLOWS AND CONVECTION PRECLUDE THIS AT THE MOMENT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 23-24C RANGE OVER OUR
AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ036-040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ027>031-037-038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1008 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1008 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE THIS MORNING TO EXTEND LOW CHANCE POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS SETTLED INTO THE KILX CWA...WITH 15Z
SATELLITE/RADAR DATA SHOWING ITS CURRENT LOCATION FROM JUST NORTH
OF PARIS TO NEAR TAYLORVILLE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO FELT POPS WERE WARRANTED TO NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN A HOT/DRY
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST CWA. BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HRRR MODEL GENERALLY
SHOWS CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS N/NW OF THE PEORIA AREA
TRACKING E/SE INTO INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY 40 POPS
ACROSS THE N/NE CWA FROM PEORIA TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TARGET...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
90S FAR NORTH...TO OVER 105 DEGREES SOUTH OF I-70.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 654 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
A PREDOMINANTLY QUIET...BUT TRICKY...AVIATION WEATHER FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTING AT LEAST
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI AS IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ONLY CARRIED
VCSH/VCTS MENTION.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO OCCURRING NEAR
CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE AROUND 130 AM ON ONE OF THE OUTFLOWS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTFLOW WAS GENERALLY JUST
NORTH OF A PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE...WITH WINDS BEHIND IT
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE ANTICS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH FLORA AND OLNEY BOTH SEEING TEMPS
JUMP 5-7 DEGREES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM...AND EFFINGHAM GOING UP 5
DEGREES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES...AS THE FORMER WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LATTER.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
IOWA WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING. EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW FAST
THE CURRENT STORMS DIMINISH...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE.
WILL SEE DEW POINTS POOLING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO CAPES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF A
BEARDSTOWN TO DANVILLE LINE TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG
THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
EVENING MODELS SHOWING A SERIES OF MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THE PRIMARY RECIPIENTS.
TIMING TONIGHT IS NOT AS CONSISTENT AMONG THE MODELS...SO WILL
NOT TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN WITH EVENING VS OVERNIGHT WORDING. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS CAPES AGAIN REACH 3000-4000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY BOTH HAVE SLIGHT RISKS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY
MONDAY... UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE BUILDING TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHUNTING THE MCS ACTIVITY MORE TO OUR
EAST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THINK THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE NORTHERN CWA SLIGHTLY COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...AS OPPOSED TO THE 100+ ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WILL DOWNGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO BLOOMINGTON LINE...REPLACING IT WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY. WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE
GONE WITH TEMPS 105 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WHERE
MORE MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE...AND 100-105 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...BUT QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE OUTFLOWS AND CONVECTION PRECLUDE THIS AT THE MOMENT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 23-24C RANGE OVER OUR
AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ036-040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ027>031-037-038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
308 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO OCCURRING NEAR
CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE AROUND 130 AM ON ONE OF THE OUTFLOWS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTFLOW WAS GENERALLY JUST
NORTH OF A PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE...WITH WINDS BEHIND IT
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE ANTICS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH FLORA AND OLNEY BOTH SEEING TEMPS
JUMP 5-7 DEGREES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM...AND EFFINGHAM GOING UP 5
DEGREES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES...AS THE FORMER WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LATTER.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
IOWA WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING. EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW FAST
THE CURRENT STORMS DIMINISH...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE.
WILL SEE DEW POINTS POOLING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO CAPES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF A
BEARDSTOWN TO DANVILLE LINE TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG
THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
EVENING MODELS SHOWING A SERIES OF MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THE PRIMARY RECIPIENTS.
TIMING TONIGHT IS NOT AS CONSISTENT AMONG THE MODELS...SO WILL
NOT TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN WITH EVENING VS OVERNIGHT WORDING. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS CAPES AGAIN REACH 3000-4000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY BOTH HAVE SLIGHT RISKS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY
MONDAY... UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE BUILDING TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHUNTING THE MCS ACTIVITY MORE TO OUR
EAST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THINK THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE NORTHERN CWA SLIGHTLY COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...AS OPPOSED TO THE 100+ ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WILL DOWNGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO BLOOMINGTON LINE...REPLACING IT WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY. WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE
GONE WITH TEMPS 105 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WHERE
MORE MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE...AND 100-105 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...BUT QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE OUTFLOWS AND CONVECTION PRECLUDE THIS AT THE MOMENT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 23-24C RANGE OVER OUR
AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION MAY WORK
TO KEEP SEVERE LEVEL WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND PIA AND BMI
BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS THIS NEXT LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
IL. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THE LINE OF STORMS WEAKENING WITH
TIME...BECOMING MAINLY SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT REACHES CMI AROUND
11Z.
SOME MVFR FOG IS INDICATED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR PIA/CMI
LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
BMI AND IS APPROACHING CMI/SPI/DEC. THAT DROP IN AIR TEMP WITHOUT
AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN DEW POINT MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG EVEN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FOR NOW WE PLAN ON KEEPING FOG OUT IN THE
SOUTH...BUT VIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EVEN IN
THUNDERSTORMS. UPSTREAM OBS DID NOT SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER. IFR VIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN HEAVIER
RAINS. AT PIA...WE INTRODUCED SOME 2SM TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH 09Z. THEN WE KEPT A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT PIA
AND PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT CMI THROUGH 14Z.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ036-040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
037-038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 855 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
STORMS JUST TO THE W AND N OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE DIMINISHED
IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LINE OF
STORMS IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KNOX/STARK/MARSHALL
COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN PEORIA/NORTHERN WOODFORD
COUNTIES AS WELL. WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT TO BUMP UP TO LIKELY POPS FOR N
KNOX/STARK/MARSHALL AND LEAVE CHANCE TO THE SOUTH.
00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWS 3200 J/KG MLCAPE AVAIL ABOVE THE WARM
CAPPING INVERSION...HOWEVER WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT AS
WELL. THE INVERSION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH DIURNAL
SURFACE COOLING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH TO NEAR
SPI/ILX LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REBOUNDED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH
WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SW FLOW. THAT BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE COLD POOL BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS TO OUR NORTH THIS
EVENING...MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT. SPC HAS INDICATED THEY WILL BE MONITORING OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A WATCH LATER
TONIGHT...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO
STRONG TO OVERCOME.
WILL ADJUST POPS AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENT
DOWNWARD TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BEHIND THE COLD POOL IN THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE SOUTH. WILL MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS AS WELL.
UPDATED INFO WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION MAY WORK
TO KEEP SEVERE LEVEL WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND PIA AND BMI
BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS THIS NEXT LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
IL. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THE LINE OF STORMS WEAKENING WITH
TIME...BECOMING MAINLY SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT REACHES CMI AROUND
11Z.
SOME MVFR FOG IS INDICATED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR PIA/CMI
LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
BMI AND IS APPROACHING CMI/SPI/DEC. THAT DROP IN AIR TEMP WITHOUT
AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN DEWPOINT MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG EVEN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FOR NOW WE PLAN ON KEEPING FOG OUT IN THE
SOUTH...BUT VIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EVEN IN
THUNDERSTORMS. UPSTREAM OBS DID NOT SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER. IFR VIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN HEAVIER
RAINS. AT PIA...WE INTRODUCED SOME 2SM TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH 09Z. THEN WE KEPT A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT PIA
AND PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT CMI THROUGH 14Z.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF PCPN AND LOCATION AS MOST
OF THE CWA SITS UNDER A HEAT DOME. OVERALL...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD AFFECT PCPN TIMING AND LOCATION
AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM...HRRR MODEL...LOOKS TO BE DOING QUITE WELL WITH LOCATION OF
SOME OF THESE SMALLER FEATURES AND RESULTING PCPN. SO THROUGH
TONIGHT WE WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR AND THEN SWITCH TO NAM-WRF/ECMWF.
GFS REMAINS TOO WET.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CONVECTION OUT OVER IOWA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO NRN IL. SO CHC POPS IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA INTO TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE NORTH
FOR TOMORROW. BEST SCIENTIFIC GUESS RIGHT NOW IS FOR THE FRONT TO
REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AND THEN SLOWLY PUSH
NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT AND REMAIN UP THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. SO WILL
KEEP CHC POPS NEAR THE FRONT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...REMAINING IN THE EXTREME NORTH PARTS OF THE
CWA...THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. 90S ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BUT
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP THEM DOWN A TAD. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL
BE NORTH WITH THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR DOWN WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS. THIS COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTHERN AREAS COULD STILL REACH TO
100 FOR HEAT INDEX...BUT WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THERE AS WELL. SO SINCE THIS WILL GO
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REACH 4 DAYS...HAVE CANCELLED REPLACED THE
ADVISORY WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. IF CRITERIA IS NOT BEING
REACHED IN THE NORTH...THEN LATER SHIFTS CANCEL AS THE NEED
ARISES. HEAT INDICES AT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 75 AS WELL.
COMPROMISED OF GUIDANCE LOOKS BEST AND RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE. PCPN IS POSSIBLE BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT. SO HAVE OPTED WITH DRY FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW WHEN PCPN WILL BE. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN WARM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WHICH IS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
421 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MESOVORT INDUCED INITIATION OF
DEEP MOIST DEEP CONVECTION PAST HOUR INVOF KRZL SLOW TO
STRENGTHEN SO FAR. COMBO OF LESSER DOWNSTREAM AVBL ENERGY/MLCAPE
DUE TO DOWNSHEARED CI SHIELDING AND RELATIVELY MUNDANE SFC-7H
WIND PROFILE...WITH MORE VIGOROUS MIDLVL FLOW OUTPACING
CONVECTION/SHUNTED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WITH TIME AFFORDING A BIT
WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HAVE RELEGATED SCT/SVR
POTNL TO FAR SRN/SERN CWA AS SOME POCKETS OF GRTR HEATING/LWR 90S
WITH UPR 60S DPS OBSERVED PER MESONET. CONVECTION TIMED TO END
ACRS SERN AROUND 00 UTC AND ALSO BEGIN NEAR/WITH SUNSET.
THEREAFTER...ONLY LOW CHCS LATE TONIGHT FOR MCS ENTERING SWRN HALF
CWA. APPEARS CWA WELL REMOVED FM BIFURCATED LLJ WITH VEERED NERN
BRANCH OF PLAINS 925-8H JETLET LACKING ROBUST CHARACTER...AND
STRONGER/VEERED NWRN BRANCH TO LKLY FOCUS REGENERATIVE CONVECTION
ACRS HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN MN/IA. IF THIS PANS OUT...LACK OF STRONG
TURNOVER SHOULD ALLOW MORE OPTIMAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED AFTN HOURS AGAIN WITH HIEST POPS FOR CONDL
CONVECTIVE CHCS. LOW SPECIFICITY WRT CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS
TURBIDITY OF MESO/STORMSCADLE DETAILS OBFUSCATE ANY ATTEMPT FOR
MORE THAN BROAD BRUSHED CHC/SLGHT CHC. FOCUS OF HIEST POPS ACRS
WRN/SRN PART OF CWA WHERE RICHER LLVL THETA-E RESIDES AND TOKEN
MENTION WRT SVR POTNL IN HWO ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM... / MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /
...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED...
A FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NEWD INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO RENEWED TROUGHING
ALONG THE EAST/WEST COASTS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOCAL AREA
WILL STILL BE IN A SOMEWHAT PRECARIOUS POSITION WRT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ON THE NERN FRINGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE INSTABILITY AXIS / LOW LVL THETA-E
RIDGE "IN THE VICINITY" DURING THIS TIME. THIS WEAK DIFFUSE LOW LVL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED DIFFICULT TO TIME LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LIKELY COMBINE TO FORCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF
A LLJ IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN ATTEMPTING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW
QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MIXING NEWD DURING THIS TIME.
THERE ARE TOO MANY MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES WRT TO MCS
DEVELOPMENT/TRACK/TIMING AND ASSOCIATED COMPOSITE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
THAT MAKE FORECASTING POPS/WX IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN VERY
DIFFICULT. AS A RESULT DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LOW
CHC POPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION/CLOUD
DEBRIS/OUTFLOWS ALSO MAKES MONDAY/TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE
WITH NO CHANGES MADE. UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION HEAT/HUMIDITY
CONCERNS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CRESTING
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AND FORCE ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD
BRING SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BY
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST HRRR-3KM BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON PONTL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTN ACRS NRN/CNTL IN. DEGREE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH LATEST RAP AT 21 UTC INCRSG SFC BASED INSTABILITY
TO 3500-4500 J/KG KFWA/KMIE RGN WWD INTO ERN IA. GIVEN LOW POINT
CHCS FOR TSRA AT AIRFIELD HAVE OPTED FOR VCTS/CB MENTION IN
SHORT/2HR WINDOW AT KFWA 22-24 UTC. THEREAFTER...VFR SANS SENSIBLE
WEATHER. POTNL FOR NOCTURNAL/ERLY AM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO NRN
IN REMAINS LOW AND QUITE CONDITIONAL. BETTER CHCS BEGINNING TO
EMERGE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUN AFTN/EVE...TO BE
ASSESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL WITH LATER TAF ITERATIONS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...
LATEST HRRR-3KM BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON PONTL CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THIS AFTN ACRS NRN/CNTL IN. DEGREE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
LATEST RAP AT 21 UTC INCRSG SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO 3500-4500 J/KG
KFWA/KMIE RGN WWD INTO ERN IA. GIVEN LOW POINT CHCS FOR TSRA AT
AIRFIELD HAVE OPTED FOR VCTS/CB MENTION IN SHORT/2HR WINDOW AT KFWA
22-24 UTC. THEREAFTER...VFR SANS SENSIBLE WEATHER. POTNL FOR
NOCTURNAL/ERLY AM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO NRN IN REMAINS LOW AND
QUITE CONDITIONAL. BETTER CHCS BEGINNING TO EMERGE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUN AFTN/EVE...TO BE ASSESSED IN FURTHER
DETAIL WITH LATER TAF ITERATIONS.
&&
.UPDATE...
SIMILAR ANTECEDENT CONDS AS SEEN YDAY...THOUGH INSTABILITY
CERTAINLY MORE SUBDUED. WHILE THE PRIMARY SAHLLOW FNTL BNDRY WELL
SOUTH OF REGN...FM JUST N OF KSTL-KTAZ-NRN INDY METRO AREA-KCMH
ATTM NOTED BY PERTURBED SCCAS/ACCAS ALONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ZONE...
THE RIBBON OF RICHEST THETA-E AIR IN LWST HALF RESIDES NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE. STRONG LATE AM/MIDDAY SFC INSOLATION ACRS NRN
INDIANA WITH 68-70F SFC DPS PROVIDING MLCAPE IN 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE WITH AN ADDNL 1000-1500 J/KG INCRS ANTICIPATED AROUND PEAK
HEATING SOUTH OF ROUTE 6...PER LATEST MODIFIED RAP/NAM SNDGS W/ LWR
90S/UPR 60S. IN ADDN TO STRONG INSTABILTY...MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-50KTS LIES ACRS CNTL IL/SRN CWA INTO CNTL INDIANA INTO
SRN HALF OF OHIO TO AID UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ANTIPATE
RENEWED/INVIGORATED SFC BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE
UPSTREAM...EITHER ASSOCD W/ MESOVORT NEAR KPTN DROPPING ESE AT 30
KTS OR UPSCALE GROWTH OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM OF MESOVORT. FAST STEERING FLOW/MID LVL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT/ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD ENVIRON SUGGESTS
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFTS AS PRIMARY
RISK...STRONG UPDRAFTS THROUGH HAIL GROWTH REGN FOR
LESSER/SECONDARY THREAT. UPDATE SENT ABOUT HR AGO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR DESTAB TRENDS BEFORE ANY FURTHER CHNGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
SHORT TERM... /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND MSTR TRAPPED
WITH IT. LLJ ACROSS IA INTO ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MULTIPLE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO FORM AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
INDIANA...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WELL WORKED
OVER AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE FROM YESTERDAYS DERECHO. ADDITIONAL MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL...ALBEIT IT GENERALLY LIGHT...HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE BEST LL MSTR FEED AND INSTABILITY.
EVEN THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED WITH DECENT CORES APPEARING NOW AND
THEN BUT UNABLE TO UTILIZE THE HIGHER WIND FIELDS ALOFT WHERE 40 KTS
OF BULK SHEAR WAS IN PLACE. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
MERGE WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY SOUTH OF US 24. GIVEN TRENDS HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH PRE 1ST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TO COVER STRATIFORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
FEW CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH SIGNALS POINTING
TOWARDS BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SUBTLE WAVES MOVING IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ALLOW SOARING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S
AGAIN...INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS FOR STORMS WITH BEST FOCUS SOUTH. DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TODAY TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 90S. WILL CONTINUE WITH HWO MENTION.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH SAME STORY WITH BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE AREA. EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO PREDICT GIVEN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIKELY TO MESS
WITH LOCATION OF EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. HAVE WENT WITH SLGT CHC IN FAR
S COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LACK OF OVERALL SUPPORT
ATTM. SPC DAY 3 ELUDES TO SOME POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES
FROM EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH
DAMPENED UPPER RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. 850 HPA
RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS GULF COAST STATES ON
MONDAY SETTING UP A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT SHOULD INDUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS...AND DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT UPSTREAM PLAINS SMALLER SCALE WAVES MAY BECOME
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR MONDAY.
POSITIONING OF MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FAVORABLE THICKNESS
ORIENTATION WOULD SUGGEST REGION COULD BE INLINE FOR ADDITIONAL MCS
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/AND TRACK OF ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BY THU/FRI KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. DID TWEAK CR ALLBLEND TEMPS/POPS MORE TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH FALL MORE INLINE WITH WARMER ECMWF MOS THAT STILL
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WARMER IDEA WITH LOWER TO MID 90S
FOR THU/FRI. GFS/MEX GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO BECOMING AROUND TO THIS
WARMER IDEA HOWEVER. GIVEN EARLY TO MID WEEK SUSCEPTIBILITY TO
PERIODIC CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT
LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO POTENTIAL INFLUENCES FROM
CLOUDS/PRECIP/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE TOWARD
GENERALLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY
UPDATE...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFFECTING KBRL AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE KMLI VCNTY BY 07Z. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS AS NEW CELLS ARE
GENERATED ON THE WEST SIDE AND MOVE EAST...THOUGH THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THROUGH 09Z. THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z AS THE
CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPANDING AGAIN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BROAD SOUTHWEST WARM MOIST FEED OVER MOST OF IOWA.
THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GENERAL AREA FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THIS TIME RANGE WITH THE
FAVORABLE HEATING. BUT...SINCE DETAILS OF TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
LATER PERIODS UNTIL THE DETAILS CLARIFY. LE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN IMPLIED 850MB WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WAS POOLING
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HAS THE MORNING CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH
NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF AN MCV IN WESTERN IOWA.
TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS CONVECTION
SLOWLY GETTING STRONGER.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS IS EXTREMELY NOISY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
FEATURES. A WAKE LOW WAS NEAR KRFD WITH A MESO LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE KDSM METRO AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE KDSM LOW TO NEAR KTVK. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
60S WITH POCKETS OF 70 DEW POINTS IN WESTERN IOWA AND ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NONLINEAR PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WX. AS SUCH
ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WERE USED HEAVILY FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. INPUT FROM RAP MODEL TRENDS USING THE MCS AND
LIFT TOOLS HELPED A LITTLE TOO.
TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. MCS TOOL SUGGESTS THE COLLISION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE MESO LOW WILL INITIATE
CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SAID
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT MOVES EAST AND
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL ENERGY BUILT UP IN THE CLEAR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO BECOME QUITE STRONG. SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NEW
CONVECTION. TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE KEY TO WHAT
HAPPENS.
LATER TONIGHT...THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER
MCS WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD DICTATE
WHERE THIS CONVECTION GOES. REGARDLESS...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS. IF THIS MCS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED...THE
DIFFERENTIAL THETA E SUGGESTED IN THE MODELS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS WITH WIND...POSSIBLY EXTREME...BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THIS SECOND MCS SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE OR EXITING THE CWFA
SATURDAY MORNING. COLD POOLS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MCS ALONG WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WOULD THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THE HEAT HEADLINES...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION
THIS MORNING HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES BUT
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY RESULT IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY BEING CANCELLED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. ..08..
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY.
OVERVIEW...CONCERNS OF NON-LINEAR CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY AND DISCUSSED YESTERDAY TO REMAIN A MAJOR
CHALLENGE INTO MONDAY.
INITIALIZATION ADEQUATE WITH VERIFICATION SUGGESTING AN OVERWEIGHT OF
GFS AND NAM-WRF. CONVECTION THIS PM AND TONIGHT WILL IMPACT NEXT
ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES...JUST LIKE TODAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO CLARIFY BEYOND 6-12 HOURS AHEAD DUE TO
NON-LINEAR NATURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IMPACTING SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTION EVENTS. HIGH TO EXTREME STABILITY IS STILL INDICATED INTO
MONDAY WITH MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 4000+ J/KG...MAX DIFFERENTIAL THETA_E
OF 30C...POSSIBLY MORE AND WBZ 12-14K AGL SUPPORTIVE OF RISK OF
DAMAGING TO VERY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS MAY SEE REPORTS OF 80+ MPH WINDS NEAR OR IN OUR FORECAST AREA
DUE TO THIS HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. THIS HAS NOW OCCURRED TODAY
WITH OUR CONVECTION THIS MORNING NOW MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA AS A BOWING SYSTEM AND IS BECOMING A DERECHO WITH FORT WAYNE
AIRPORT REPORTING MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 79 KTS...OR 91 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPED POPS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION SUGGESTED...MAINLY FOR SOUTH 1/2 OF AREA. KEY WILL BE
STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW FROM MCS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTH SECTIONS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OF COOL POOL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS 90
DEGREES AND POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S FOR LATER SHIFTS ON SUNDAY.
MINS SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS. HIGH PW/S OF OVER 1.5 UP TO 2 INCHES AND
WEAKER STEERING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 PLUS
INCHES FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY 3+ INCHES WITH
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE T-BONE OF WARM ADVECTION WING OF
STORMS AHEAD OF A MAIN BOWING LINE. IF WE GET GOOD LATE PM HEATING
THEN CONCERN REMAINS OF A DECENT AREA OF STRONG WINDS WITH A BOWING
SEGMENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE EARLIER DUE TO HIGH/EXTREME INSTABILITY.
HEAT INDICES IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY PUSH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM...POOR CONFIDENCE
HERE DUE TO EVIDENCE OF WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER MCS THAT SOLUTIONS OFTEN POORLY CAPTURE. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO AGAIN UP POPS AND ADJUST HI TEMPERATURES DOWN AS
THE CASE THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AREA TO REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF OUR
NORMAL MID SUMMER "RING OF FIRE" WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDING. KEPT
MOSTLY DRY BUT A LOW RISK OF CONVECTION REMAINS THAT MAY PROPAGATE
OR FIRE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS WITH
AGAIN STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. HI
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH AND LOWS MOSTLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 95
TO 100 DEGREES SUGGESTED FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS. EVIDENCE OF A
BREAK IN THE HEAT TO DEVELOP BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
NICHOLS
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
522 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT INCREASING POPS AND QPF ALONG A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH. DID THIS THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTATION OF ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MORE OF THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
EASTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
FOR KGLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE 01Z-02Z
TIMEFRAME WHEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL...SHOULD THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR. IF THEY DO VIS COULD DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
10-15 MPH INCREASING AFTER 17Z SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.
FOR KMCK VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1056 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2012
Already cancelled a good portion of WW448 and the rest will go at
the top of the hour. Only a few severe storms left over the Lake
Cumberland region which will exit our area within the next hour.
For the rest of the evening, expect only scattered showers/t-storms
with nothing severe expected as the upper level wave causing these
storms moves into eastern KY.
Made some tweaks to dewpts/temps this evening but nothing major.
&&
.Short Term (Tonight through Monday night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun July 1 2012
Several issues to deal with in the short term forecast. Currently,
things are quiet across the CWA, however potential appears to be
growing for scattered thunderstorm activity later this evening. A
look at the latest water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave
rounding the top of the ridge over southern Illinois, with an
associated weak surface low underneath. This is creating moisture
convergence near the Wabash/Ohio River confluence and a few storms
have already fired near this location. Expect this wave, along with
other waves embedded in the northwest flow over IL/IN to slowly move
toward the region later this evening and should provide enough lift
to kick off scattered storms. One limiting factor will be strength
of the cap with strong mid level high to the south. With the amount
of instability, (CAPE values ~ 2000-4000 J/KG) and dry air at the
low and mid levels expect that storms that do fire will have the
potential to go severe with damaging winds and hail being the main
threats. Secondary threats would be heavy rainfall and cloud to
ground lightning. Deep layer shear is marginal for organization and
expect storm mode to mainly be pulse in nature. Best coverage of
storms should be across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Across south central Kentucky, expect cap to be strong enough to
keep things dry overnight.
As far as the heat goes, current temperatures are ranging in the
upper 90s to low 100s across the region. Record high temperatures
have already been tied or set at BWG, SDF, and LEX with an hour or
two of heating still to go. Will keep heat headlines in place
through late this evening, however will downgrade to an advisory
mainly along and west of I-65 for tomorrow. Will go with no headline
east of this line. Thanks to surrounding offices for collaboration.
Overall high temperatures are expected to be a degree or two cooler
than today, however higher dew points will yield heat indices near
the same values as today. Either way, we should be below Excessive
Heat Warning criteria and with prolonged nature of the heat, felt
advisory was still sufficient. One other factor that could wreck the
temperature forecast will be a better chance of convection. Will
give the following shifts time to re-evaluate.
Overall, expect a weakening of the upper level ridge through this
forecast period which should lead to an increase in isolated to
scattered convective chances tomorrow afternoon and evening. Also,
mid level pattern looks to have several weak waves embedded within
which could enhance areas of convection. Low confidence portion of
the forecast carries slight chances overnight, mainly across the
northern CWA. Monday could bring isolated to scattered coverage
across the entire CWA and will rely on diurnal trends and low
confidence to go with a dry forecast for Monday night.
Expect mild overnight lows once again in the 70s. Tomorrow will see
highs ranging from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in most
spots. Overnight lows will once again be in the 70s.
.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2012
Above normal temp regime continues, but the devil is in the details
here as the upper ridge retrogrades into the Plains. Ohio Valley
will be in the NW flow on the periphery of the ridge for the middle
portion of the week. Forecast confidence is low due to impulses
aloft that will be at best difficult to time. With a hot and fairly
humid air mass in place, it will not take much of a disturbance to
initiate convection on any day. That said, we remain in a drought so
would rather not get carried away with inserting 20-30 POPs across
the board. Best shot appears to be Tuesday, with POPs trending down
and being more limited to the Bluegrass and the higher terrain after
that as the timing becomes more difficult. The breakdown of the
ridge overhead will keep things just unsettled enough to limit max
temps to the mid/upper 90s, with heat indices just over 100 each
afternoon.
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge strengthening over the Plains and then
building east Friday into Saturday, which could bring 100 degree
heat back to the area in time for the weekend. Sunday carries
another divergence in the models, as the GFS tries to develop an
East Coast trough, and bring a cold front SE across the Ohio Valley.
Will include a 20-30 POP out of respect for the modest height falls
aloft, but still splitting the difference between the 100 degree
temps in the previous forecast and the lower 90s advertised by the
latest GFS extended MOS.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun July 1 2012
Main focus for this TAF period is ongoing convection over southern
Indiana and northern KY. Used a combo of current obs as well as
latest NAM and HRRR model guidance for this TAF forecast. SDF looks
to be the most under the gun with an outflow boundary headed that
way by around 0000Z-0015Z. Another complex of storms looks to move
east into the SDF terminal by around 1Z bringing gusty winds of
30-40 mph and very heavy rainfall.
LEX does stand a chance at some t-storms later this evening between
1Z-4Z but will wait to see if the current storm complexes survive as
they move eastward or sag southward before inserting specifics.
BWG has the least chance of experiencing convection tonight due to a
strong cap over the area. Still a few left over showers may make it
that far south overnight. Will refine timing based on radar trends
this evening.
After this complex diminishes late tonight, winds will decline and
remain mainly out of a westerly directions.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ TO 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ TO 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KYZ023>032-053-061>063-070>074.
$$
Update...........AMS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
835 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2012
Svr t-storm watch 448 is still in effect until 11 pm EDT/ 10 pm
CDT. Complex of storms over southern Indiana continues to produce
1-1.25 inch hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Multiple
outflow boundaries are racing across the region spurring new
convection and re-energizing convection across the region. Expect
the complex of storms over southern Indiana to sag south through
around 6Z...then head southeast as an approaching upper level wave
pushes the main complex out of the area.
&&
.Short Term (Tonight through Monday night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun July 1 2012
Several issues to deal with in the short term forecast. Currently,
things are quiet across the CWA, however potential appears to be
growing for scattered thunderstorm activity later this evening. A
look at the latest water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave
rounding the top of the ridge over southern Illinois, with an
associated weak surface low underneath. This is creating moisture
convergence near the Wabash/Ohio River confluence and a few storms
have already fired near this location. Expect this wave, along with
other waves embedded in the northwest flow over IL/IN to slowly move
toward the region later this evening and should provide enough lift
to kick off scattered storms. One limiting factor will be strength
of the cap with strong mid level high to the south. With the amount
of instability, (CAPE values ~ 2000-4000 J/KG) and dry air at the
low and mid levels expect that storms that do fire will have the
potential to go severe with damaging winds and hail being the main
threats. Secondary threats would be heavy rainfall and cloud to
ground lightning. Deep layer shear is marginal for organization and
expect storm mode to mainly be pulse in nature. Best coverage of
storms should be across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Across south central Kentucky, expect cap to be strong enough to
keep things dry overnight.
As far as the heat goes, current temperatures are ranging in the
upper 90s to low 100s across the region. Record high temperatures
have already been tied or set at BWG, SDF, and LEX with an hour or
two of heating still to go. Will keep heat headlines in place
through late this evening, however will downgrade to an advisory
mainly along and west of I-65 for tomorrow. Will go with no headline
east of this line. Thanks to surrounding offices for collaboration.
Overall high temperatures are expected to be a degree or two cooler
than today, however higher dew points will yield heat indices near
the same values as today. Either way, we should be below Excessive
Heat Warning criteria and with prolonged nature of the heat, felt
advisory was still sufficient. One other factor that could wreck the
temperature forecast will be a better chance of convection. Will
give the following shifts time to re-evaluate.
Overall, expect a weakening of the upper level ridge through this
forecast period which should lead to an increase in isolated to
scattered convective chances tomorrow afternoon and evening. Also,
mid level pattern looks to have several weak waves embedded within
which could enhance areas of convection. Low confidence portion of
the forecast carries slight chances overnight, mainly across the
northern CWA. Monday could bring isolated to scattered coverage
across the entire CWA and will rely on diurnal trends and low
confidence to go with a dry forecast for Monday night.
Expect mild overnight lows once again in the 70s. Tomorrow will see
highs ranging from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in most
spots. Overnight lows will once again be in the 70s.
.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2012
Above normal temp regime continues, but the devil is in the details
here as the upper ridge retrogrades into the Plains. Ohio Valley
will be in the NW flow on the periphery of the ridge for the middle
portion of the week. Forecast confidence is low due to impulses
aloft that will be at best difficult to time. With a hot and fairly
humid air mass in place, it will not take much of a disturbance to
initiate convection on any day. That said, we remain in a drought so
would rather not get carried away with inserting 20-30 POPs across
the board. Best shot appears to be Tuesday, with POPs trending down
and being more limited to the Bluegrass and the higher terrain after
that as the timing becomes more difficult. The breakdown of the
ridge overhead will keep things just unsettled enough to limit max
temps to the mid/upper 90s, with heat indices just over 100 each
afternoon.
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge strengthening over the Plains and then
building east Friday into Saturday, which could bring 100 degree
heat back to the area in time for the weekend. Sunday carries
another divergence in the models, as the GFS tries to develop an
East Coast trough, and bring a cold front SE across the Ohio Valley.
Will include a 20-30 POP out of respect for the modest height falls
aloft, but still splitting the difference between the 100 degree
temps in the previous forecast and the lower 90s advertised by the
latest GFS extended MOS.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun July 1 2012
Main focus for this TAF period is ongoing convection over southern
Indiana and northern KY. Used a combo of current obs as well as
latest NAM and HRRR model guidance for this TAF forecast. SDF looks
to be the most under the gun with an outflow boundary headed that
way by around 0000Z-0015Z. Another complex of storms looks to move
east into the SDF terminal by around 1Z bringing gusty winds of
30-40 mph and very heavy rainfall.
LEX does stand a chance at some t-storms later this evening between
1Z-4Z but will wait to see if the current storm complexes survive as
they move eastward or sag southward before inserting specifics.
BWG has the least chance of experiencing convection tonight due to a
strong cap over the area. Still a few left over showers may make it
that far south overnight. Will refine timing based on radar trends
this evening.
After this complex diminishes late tonight, winds will decline and
remain mainly out of a westerly directions.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ TO 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ TO 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KYZ023>032-053-061>063-070>074.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082.
$$
Update...........AMS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
752 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term (Tonight through Monday night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun July 1 2012
Several issues to deal with in the short term forecast. Currently,
things are quiet across the CWA, however potential appears to be
growing for scattered thunderstorm activity later this evening. A
look at the latest water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave
rounding the top of the ridge over southern Illinois, with an
associated weak surface low underneath. This is creating moisture
convergence near the Wabash/Ohio River confluence and a few storms
have already fired near this location. Expect this wave, along with
other waves embedded in the northwest flow over IL/IN to slowly move
toward the region later this evening and should provide enough lift
to kick off scattered storms. One limiting factor will be strength
of the cap with strong mid level high to the south. With the amount
of instability, (CAPE values ~ 2000-4000 J/KG) and dry air at the
low and mid levels expect that storms that do fire will have the
potential to go severe with damaging winds and hail being the main
threats. Secondary threats would be heavy rainfall and cloud to
ground lightning. Deep layer shear is marginal for organization and
expect storm mode to mainly be pulse in nature. Best coverage of
storms should be across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Across south central Kentucky, expect cap to be strong enough to
keep things dry overnight.
As far as the heat goes, current temperatures are ranging in the
upper 90s to low 100s across the region. Record high temperatures
have already been tied or set at BWG, SDF, and LEX with an hour or
two of heating still to go. Will keep heat headlines in place
through late this evening, however will downgrade to an advisory
mainly along and west of I-65 for tomorrow. Will go with no headline
east of this line. Thanks to surrounding offices for collaboration.
Overall high temperatures are expected to be a degree or two cooler
than today, however higher dew points will yield heat indices near
the same values as today. Either way, we should be below Excessive
Heat Warning criteria and with prolonged nature of the heat, felt
advisory was still sufficient. One other factor that could wreck the
temperature forecast will be a better chance of convection. Will
give the following shifts time to re-evaluate.
Overall, expect a weakening of the upper level ridge through this
forecast period which should lead to an increase in isolated to
scattered convective chances tomorrow afternoon and evening. Also,
mid level pattern looks to have several weak waves embedded within
which could enhance areas of convection. Low confidence portion of
the forecast carries slight chances overnight, mainly across the
northern CWA. Monday could bring isolated to scattered coverage
across the entire CWA and will rely on diurnal trends and low
confidence to go with a dry forecast for Monday night.
Expect mild overnight lows once again in the 70s. Tomorrow will see
highs ranging from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in most
spots. Overnight lows will once again be in the 70s.
.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2012
Above normal temp regime continues, but the devil is in the details
here as the upper ridge retrogrades into the Plains. Ohio Valley
will be in the NW flow on the periphery of the ridge for the middle
portion of the week. Forecast confidence is low due to impulses
aloft that will be at best difficult to time. With a hot and fairly
humid air mass in place, it will not take much of a disturbance to
initiate convection on any day. That said, we remain in a drought so
would rather not get carried away with inserting 20-30 POPs across
the board. Best shot appears to be Tuesday, with POPs trending down
and being more limited to the Bluegrass and the higher terrain after
that as the timing becomes more difficult. The breakdown of the
ridge overhead will keep things just unsettled enough to limit max
temps to the mid/upper 90s, with heat indices just over 100 each
afternoon.
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge strengthening over the Plains and then
building east Friday into Saturday, which could bring 100 degree
heat back to the area in time for the weekend. Sunday carries
another divergence in the models, as the GFS tries to develop an
East Coast trough, and bring a cold front SE across the Ohio Valley.
Will include a 20-30 POP out of respect for the modest height falls
aloft, but still splitting the difference between the 100 degree
temps in the previous forecast and the lower 90s advertised by the
latest GFS extended MOS.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun July 1 2012
Main focus for this TAF period is ongoing convection over southern
Indiana and northern KY. Used a combo of current obs as well as
latest NAM and HRRR model guidance for this TAF forecast. SDF looks
to be the most under the gun with an outflow boundary headed that
way by around 0000Z-0015Z. Another complex of storms looks to move
east into the SDF terminal by around 1Z bringing gusty winds of
30-40 mph and very heavy rainfall.
LEX does stand a chance at some t-storms later this evening between
1Z-4Z but will wait to see if the current storm complexes survive as
they move eastward or sag southward before inserting specifics.
BWG has the least chance of experiencing convection tonight due to a
strong cap over the area. Still a few left over showers may make it
that far south overnight. Will refine timing based on radar trends
this evening.
After this complex diminishes late tonight, winds will decline and
remain mainly out of a westerly directions.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ TO 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ TO 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KYZ023>032-053-061>063-070>074.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082.
$$
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
123 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
WOW! AFTER SETTING ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE RECORDS FOR OUR MAIN SITES ONLY DATE
BACK TO THE MID AND LATE 20TH CENTURY...EAST KENTUCKY HAD TO DEAL
WITH A STRONG GUST FRONT BLASTING SOUTH FROM A VERY MEAN DERECHO THAT
ROLLED BY TO THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY BROUGHT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
OUR NORTHEAST TIER BEFORE IT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY MANY PLACES GOT THE WIND FROM
THE STORMS BUT VERY LITTLE OF THE RAIN THAT COULD HAVE ACCOMPANIED
THEM. THIS EVENT DID BRING SOME SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH. ANYWAYS...HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE GRIDS IN PLACES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT MAY HAVE HAVE SEEN
SOME RAIN. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP UNDER
CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A MINOR TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT TO DEVELOP...THOUGH ALL LOWS WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S BY DAWN. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR A FLATTER
DIURNAL CURVE THROUGH 2 AM BEFORE THE NORMAL PATTERN TAKES OVER
AGAIN. THE REST OF THE GRIDS REMAINED VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED FROM THE
LAST UPDATE AND THE ZONES WILL BE LEFT TO STAND AS THEY ARE. AN
UPDATED NPW FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY IS FORTHCOMING. WE WILL SEE WHAT
TOMORROW BRINGS AND WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY RIDGE RIDERS OR THEIR
ANCILLARY EFFECTS IMPACT OUR AREA...AS THE HEAT ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES.
IN CASE ANYONE MISSED IT...JKL SET AN ALL TIME RECORD HIGH OF 104
TODAY AND LOZ DID THE SAME BY TOPPING OUT AT 105 DEGREES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING AND BACK OFF POPS AND
SKY COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING AND DISSIPATING GUST FRONT. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOL POOL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A TWEAK TO THE DIURNAL CURVE THAT THIS
AFFECTS. NEW ZONES AND HWO WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TO TRY AND FORECAST
THE SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
TRY AND DETERMINE IF THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A MCS TYPE OF SYSTEM BARELY
EFFECTING THE AREA NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. CONSIDERING THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WISE TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. IT IS THE SAME SITUATION FOR TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT IS PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK. WE BROKE THE
THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR JACKSON AT 102 TODAY AND IT MIGHT EVEN GO UP
IN THE NEXT HOUR. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. LONDON ALSO HIT 102
TIED THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE AND BROAD AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS STRETCHING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE TN
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION...OR
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE EXTENDED IS...WITH A PROMINENT TROUGH
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND A SERIES OF RIDGE RUNNERS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WILL AN MCS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME OUR DROUGHT AND MAKE
IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AREA. AT THIS
POINT...THE MODELS HANDLE THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN QUITE WELL
BUT JUDGING PREVIOUS RUNS COMPARED HOW THE PATTERN HAS PANNED OUT IN
THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE...AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED RAIN
ACCORDING TO THE PAST RUNS HAVE NOT COME TO PASS. THIS PROVIDES A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED AND GIVEN
THE FACT THAT A STRONG TO DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. DESPITE BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOWING CONVECTION UNDER THE
CAP...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST. WILL RUN THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO GO ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THE RESULT.
AFTER THE PRODUCING THE MODEL ALL BLEND AND COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PRODUCING QPF IN THE
EXTENDED UNDER THE CAP AND THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AIDED IN
THIS DECISION. BETTER INTERROGATION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER RUNS IF
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN BUT SOME BETTER SUPPORT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU INTO THU NIGHT THAT MAY PUT
DOWN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN BUT AT THIS POINT...FELT A DRY FORECAST
WOULD BE A BETTER REPRESENTATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SOME LINGERING BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
BUT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO SKIRT THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN ANY SPECIFIC TERMINALS SEEING IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY VC
GROUPS ATTM. OTHERWISE...WLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 16Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1020 AM...THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAPID
REFRESH ARE INDICATING CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST
MENTIONS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE SO CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAT EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
TROF/UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CORRESPOND WITH MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MID LEVEL
WINDS...STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S NORTH...TO THE MID 80S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL BLEND
GFS40..NAM12...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND WILL INCREASE POPS WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE USE GMOS FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT. A BLEND OF GMOS AND NAM12 WAS USED FOR WIND. WILL
MENTION SCATTERED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK WEATHER PATTERN AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALOFT EXPECT SHORT WAVES TO PERIODICALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE RESULTING IN SHOWERS. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO
INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST POPS AND SKY COVER. WILL MENTION
SCATTERED THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WIND
GRIDS UNTIL 1200Z MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE GMOS WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST IN LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT LONGER PERIOD WAVES TO DOMINATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 2 FEET TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE NAM/SWAN
UNTIL 1200Z MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO WNA/4. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME
WAVES LOWER AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
858 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWFA TONIGHT.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL DO SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1000...BUT A
NICE MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. CAP BE ERODED WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/COOLING WITH THE SYSTEM. ANY CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING
ELEVATED IF A SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ALONG THE
LINE COULD END UP BEING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S...MONDAY MAY BE THE
MOST PLEASANT DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT MEANS THAT SOME OF IT MAY
BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR SHOULD RETURN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEING HARD PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT EITHER INTO OR THROUGH OUR CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. THE RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY MEANS AN INCREASE IN THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS TIME. CLUSTER OF STORMS TRYING TO ORGANIZE
OVER EASTERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN
TERMINALS COULD BE AFFECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM...AND THE
EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...
PARTICULARLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE.
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
701 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS INTO
QUEBEC...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SEASONAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER...ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
ASIDE FROM A FEW FAIR WX CU LINGERING EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC
REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THANKS TO A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. IR
SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW AN AREA OF SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN WISCONSIN
STEADILY TRACKING SE TOWARD OUR CWA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CLOUDS
WILL NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AS WINDS BECOME CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS...
STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S. NICE MID
SUMMER SLEEPING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
STALLED FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WEAKISH HIGH PRESSURE AND W/NW FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SPOTTY CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT
BUT NOTHING TOO LARGE OR VIGOROUS AT THE MOMENT. FURTHER NORTH...CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH SOME CU OVER NE
LOWER AND UPPER MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF OLD CONVECTION ADVANCING
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD (REMNANT OF OLD
CONVECTION) ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED. SIMILAR LOW TEMPS AS LAST NIGHT...UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.
SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH 700 MB TEMPS COOLING A GOOD 3 DEGREES. JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTER UPPER AND/OR NE LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THANKS TO
LAKE BREEZES AND PREVAILING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
PATTERN TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF
UNFOLDING...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS
CONFIRMING HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE OF SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PLAINS
RIDGING BOOKENDED BY EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGH AXES. INITIAL
SCORCHER OF A HEAT DOME LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST...KEEPING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TIED ALONG TIGHT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. MOUNTING
EVIDENCE AT LEAST A PIECE OF CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT WILL EXPAND
(ATTEMPT TO?) NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES MID AND LATE WEEK...WHICH FROM
A CONCEPTUAL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE...SETS THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. OF COURSE...
WHOLE FORECAST REMAINS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY...A MANIFESTATION OF
EXACT THERMAL GRADIENT CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOLS
ACTING UPON IT. FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CENTERED ON TRYING TO
SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE ABOVE.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN IMMEDIATELY AS WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST LAKES MONDAY EVENING. SOME EVIDENCE THIS MAY SUPPORT
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN STELLAR DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ARGUES OTHERWISE. IN ADDITION...ANY POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO RIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES PER
PROPAGATION VECTORS. PERSONAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS TURNED IN RECENT
WEEKS GIVEN ONGOING DRY SPELL...AND SIMPLY NEED TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE
BEFORE "CLOUDING" THE FORECAST WITH ADDITIONAL LOW END POP CHANCES.
AT LEAST MORE CONFIDENCE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO MID WEEK AS HEAT EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES...FORCING THERMAL/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO OUR AREA AS IT
DOES SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY LATE MONDAY NIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO RIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY HANGS UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL SOME CONCERNS JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE...WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET TIED TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXACT MOVEMENT
ALSO RAISES SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...WITH GUIDANCE OFTEN OVERLY
AMBITIOUS DRIVING STORMS NORTH IN SUCH A REGIME AS THEY ARE UNABLE
TO RESOLVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OF COMBINED CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS.
WON`T GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND NORTHEAST...PERHAPS BRINGING WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS TO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE WOULD ALSO YIELD
A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...DISPLACING BETTER STORM POTENTIAL TO OUR
NORTH. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT RAIN THREAT. PLENTY OF TIME FOR FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WEAK
COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN...INCLUDING
APN...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SOME OFFSHORE GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY...AND LAKE BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
ALL SHORELINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS INTO
QUEBEC...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SEASONAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER...ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
STALLED FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WEAKISH HIGH PRESSURE AND W/NW FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SPOTTY CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT
BUT NOTHING TOO LARGE OR VIGOROUS AT THE MOMENT. FURTHER NORTH...CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH SOME CU OVER NE
LOWER AND UPPER MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF OLD CONVECTION ADVANCING
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD (REMNANT OF OLD
CONVECTION) ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED. SIMILAR LOW TEMPS AS LAST NIGHT...UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.
SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH 700 MB TEMPS COOLING A GOOD 3 DEGREES. JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTER UPPER AND/OR NE LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THANKS TO
LAKE BREEZES AND PREVAILING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
PATTERN TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF
UNFOLDING...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS
CONFIRMING HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE OF SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PLAINS
RIDGING BOOKENDED BY EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGH AXES. INITIAL
SCORCHER OF A HEAT DOME LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST...KEEPING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TIED ALONG TIGHT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. MOUNTING
EVIDENCE AT LEAST A PIECE OF CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT WILL EXPAND
(ATTEMPT TO?) NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES MID AND LATE WEEK...WHICH FROM
A CONCEPTUAL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE...SETS THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. OF COURSE...
WHOLE FORECAST REMAINS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY...A MANIFESTATION OF
EXACT THERMAL GRADIENT CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOLS
ACTING UPON IT. FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CENTERED ON TRYING TO
SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE ABOVE.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN IMMEDIATELY AS WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST LAKES MONDAY EVENING. SOME EVIDENCE THIS MAY SUPPORT
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN STELLAR DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ARGUES OTHERWISE. IN ADDITION...ANY POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO RIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES PER
PROPAGATION VECTORS. PERSONAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS TURNED IN RECENT
WEEKS GIVEN ONGOING DRY SPELL...AND SIMPLY NEED TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE
BEFORE "CLOUDING" THE FORECAST WITH ADDITIONAL LOW END POP CHANCES.
AT LEAST MORE CONFIDENCE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO MID WEEK AS HEAT EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES...FORCING THERMAL/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO OUR AREA AS IT
DOES SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY LATE MONDAY NIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO RIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY HANGS UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL SOME CONCERNS JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE...WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET TIED TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXACT MOVEMENT
ALSO RAISES SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...WITH GUIDANCE OFTEN OVERLY
AMBITIOUS DRIVING STORMS NORTH IN SUCH A REGIME AS THEY ARE UNABLE
TO RESOLVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OF COMBINED CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS.
WON`T GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND NORTHEAST...PERHAPS BRINGING WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS TO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE WOULD ALSO YIELD
A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...DISPLACING BETTER STORM POTENTIAL TO OUR
NORTH. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT RAIN THREAT. PLENTY OF TIME FOR FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST
SOME HIGH BASED SCT CU IMPACTING APN. SOME GUSTINESS AT PLN AND
APN THIS AFTERNOON...LAKE BREEZES AT TVC. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SOME OFFSHORE GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY...AND LAKE BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
ALL SHORELINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WHETHER CONVECTION ACROSS ND WILL MAKE
IT INTO WC MN BY AROUND NOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
SHRA/TSRA CHC/S ALONG WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASING
THROUGH NEXT THU.
DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS HAS REMAINED
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS BASICALLY WASHED OUT
ACROSS S IA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWV/S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PLAY HAVOC ON
RAINFALL CHC/S OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.
UNTIL THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. SEVERAL OF THE LOCAL MODEL RUNS
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST HAS THE ACTIVITY ACROSS ND MOVING INTO
WESTERN MN AROUND NOON...BEFORE DISSIPATING OR DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SD/SW MN WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST LATER TODAY.
THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AND IF THIS AXIS
MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD...CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE WILL LOW CHC POPS WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TODAY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
UPDATE...ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST. CHECK THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK WHICH HAS OUR WESTERN FA UNDER
THE GUN FOR SVR WX. THIS SCENARIO OF WHERE THE SHRTWV/S DEVELOP
AND HOW THE INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SUN/MON
WX...AND ASSOCIATED POPS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE ALL MODEL BLEND
FOR CHC POPS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. THERE REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH END CHC OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FA BY LATE
MON/TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER DEW PTS AND HEAT INDICES...ALONG
WITH A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST BET IS TO
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT EXISTS.
AS FOR TEMPS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S REMAINS GOOD FOR WED/THU WHICH HAS THE BEST SCENARIO IN TERMS
OF 85H TEMPS. FOR TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...DEW PTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME. IT IS RARE TO HAVE DEW PTS
NEAR 70 OR GREATER AND TEMPS ABV 95 DEGREES IN OUR REGION. THE
LAST TIME WHERE TEMPS ROSE ABV THE CENTURY MARK...DEW PTS DROPPED
INTO THE 50S. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHG BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...IT REMAIN VERY WARM OVER THE NEXT 5...WITH HEAT INDICES
EACH DAY RISING ABV 95 TO 100...WITH THE HIGHEST TUE/WED/THU WHERE
HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTN. ..JLT..
&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS WHAT DOES UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NE MONTANA DO FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL AT TAF SITES.
00Z NAM INITIALIZING THIS WAVE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH
IT COMING INTO MN SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR IT TO WORK WITH...THE
ONLY PROBLEM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND WEAK H85 FLOW MAY END
UP LIMITING THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH THE WAVE. WITH THAT SAID...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS WAVE KICKS OFF SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE
NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SENDS IT EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA
SATURDAY...THE ENDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS WOULD GIVE
SOME MERITS TO THIS IDEA. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH
WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW...BUT DID INCLUDE A VCTS AT AXN
AS THIS IS WHERE SREF PROBS FOR PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
HIGHEST...THOUGH COULD SEE THE NEED FOR THUNDER SPREADING EAST
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE WIND
DIRECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH A VERY BAGGY GRADIENT AND WINDS THAT LIKELY BE ALL
OVER THE PLACE...SO HAVE A LOT OF VRB WINDS MENTIONED.
KMSP...WILL HAVE TO WATCH WAVE OVER NE MT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AT THE FIELD. NAM SHOWS BRUNT OF WAVE GOING NORTH OF THE FIELD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT
NEARBY...COULD SEE THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LOW ON ANY CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT...SO LEFT IT
OUT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT TREND OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTH
ON SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK/
.SUNDAY...VFR. SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA.
.MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR TSRA OVERNIGHT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JLT/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short Range (Tonight through Tuesday)...
MCV left over from last nights convection over western KS has
sparked isolated storms over central KS. MCV is moving slowly east
under a weak steering flow less than 15kts. While the system is
working into a more unstable airmass will likely need the
development of a good sized cold pool to send any additional
activity into the western CWA. 18Z NAM and latest HRRR provide
enough incentive to mention slight chance pops into the evening
hours for far western counties. Rest of CWA should be quiet
overnight.
For the past several days models have forecast "cooler" temperatures
for the CWA. This is mainly the result of deeper tropical air now
over TX advecting slowly north and cooling temperatures up through
the mid levels. But with the somewhat cooler temperatures spells an
increase in dewpoints/humidity levels so not a good trade off. There
are some signals that warrant adding slight chance pops to the
southern CWA for late Monday afternoon/evening as a couple of weak
vorticity lobes/shortwaves may lift through the CWA. Combination of
steep lapse rates and pockets of deeper moisture around h7 per BUFR
soundings provide the background for pulse type convection
initiating during peak heating and hanging around till mid evening.
Gusty winds and small hail certainly possible. Have not strayed too
far form previous temperature forecast. Heat Index values not high
enough to warrant any advisory.
Slightly warmer air expected to drift back into the CWA on Tuesday
as the deeper tropical plume of moisture/cooler temperatures aloft
peels eastward. Heat Index values crank back into the 100-106 range.
And the drought continues with nearly zero chance of rain.
MJ
Wednesday - Sunday:
Models remain in very good agreement through the extended depicting
the upper ridge expanding and strengthening through the week across
the central CONUS. So the extended range forecast continues to look
hot with little, if any, chance of any organized area of
precipitation. So have kept the entire period dry with temperatures
around 100 degrees for most locations. There may be days that are a
bit warmer and cooler but all in all afternoon highs will be
flirting with the century mark day after day through Sunday. The
later part of the week looks warmer for the entire area as greater
thickness values spread eastward and drape themselves across the
area. But still think highs will be in the 100 to 102 range.
If there is one positive about this heat wave it is that dewpoints
haven`t been extreme. This is most likely due to the drought and the
overall lack of evapotranspiration. But with dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s, the heat has not been as bad as in years past. This has
kept heat index values lower but we`re still expecting heat index
values to range from 100 to 104 through the extended. This is below
advisory levels for any given day. But with this heat being
prolonged, and in the 100 to 104 range, an advisory may be needed
through the end of the week as the cumulative effects of the heat
continue to mount.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...
No major concerns for the 00Z TAFs as VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours. Convection associated with MCV over central Kansas
is struggling and it does not look favorable for it to make as far
east as the terminal sites. At this time planning to continue to
leave mention of thunder out of TAF. With that said, southerly winds
should continue with broken high level cloudiness.
MJM
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW IL TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING SHRA. RUC PICKS UP ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP THIS MORNING
WITH THE FORCING WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH
ANOTHER OUTFLOW MOVING SWD FROM CONVECTION FURTHER N...AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY SHRA WILL DEVELOP
FURTHER W AND THE ONGOING SHRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE CWA. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY KEPT THESE
POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF THIS PRECIP...BELIEVE TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK AS
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY ONLY HELP RAISE DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS.
TILLY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012 (TODAY)
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN
IL HAS DROPPED SWD TO JUST S OF PPQ EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE WERE A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS W CNTRL IL BUT THESE
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TODAY ACROSS NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ALONG THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AS A WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT
DROPS SWD INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND CNTRL IL AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS AFTN. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION S
OF THIS AREA TODAY. BECAUSE OF SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL. FURTHER S LITTLE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED WITH SIMILAR MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...LIKELY RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA AND
PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL WITH A HEAT ADVISORY W OF THIS
REGION FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
GKS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012 (TONIGHT TO FRIDAY)
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOCATION OF EFFECTIVE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CLOUDS/SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT ONGOING HEAT
WAVE. DO NOT THINK THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT HEAT INDEX
READINGS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE 100-106 RANGE BOTH TOMORROW AND
MONDAY. PLAN ON EXTENDING CURRENT HEAT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES INTO
MONDAY. WILL ALSO ADD STE. GENEVIEVE...ST. FRANCOIS AND MADISON
COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. FARMINGTON`S HEAT INDEX
WAS 106 YESTERDAY...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 105 TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
THINK THAT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT DOES LOOK TO MOVE
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
GOING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THINK THAT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS THE FRONT
MOVES TO THE NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...THE NAM DEVELOPS A BULLSEYE OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SO WILL
LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR NOW.
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY GIVEN DEEP MIXING TO 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
THE 22-25C RANGE. STILL EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF I-70 BOTH DAYS...BUT THE
BETTER PERFORMING NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 99-105 RANGE.
FARTHER NORTH...DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER CLOSER THE RETREATING FRONT
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND
100 DEGREES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEK WHICH
LOWERS THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. THE
MODELS DO DEPICT A GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER HIGH NOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER IL ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING
HIGH. THE NEW ECMWF BRINGS A TROPICAL SYSTEM UP INTO SOUTHERN MO ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WILL DISCOUNT BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND GO WITH CONTINUITY WHICH MEANS
STAYING WITH THE HOT AND DRY FORECAST. BOTH MODELS STILL HAVE
850MB TEMPS IN THE 22-24C RANGE WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 100.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR AND DRY THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY UIN. STATIONARY
FNT REMAINS ACROSS SRN IA AND CNTL IL. ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT ALONG THIS FNT WHICH MAY PUSH S AND IMPACT UIN.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE TSRA WILL BE ISOD TO SCT AS FAR S AS UIN AND
WILL KEEP TAF DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SLY TO SWLY WINDS THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 18 KTS AT
COU/UIN.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR AND DRY THRU THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT AND PICK UP AGAIN SUN MORNING
BECOMING MORE WLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
TILLY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
STILL PLAN ON GOING WITH HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER WORDING FOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. FORECAST 10 HOUR DEAD
FUELS WILL BE 8 PERCENT OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO USE APPROPRIATE WORDING IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BRITT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
RECORD HIGHS
DATE ST. LOUIS COLUMBIA QUINCY
----------------------------------------------
JUNE 30 103(1931) 103(1901) 103(1931)
JULY 01 105(1980) 110(1980) 104(1930)
JULY 02 101(1933) 102(1901) 103(1934)
JULY 03 101(1934) 104(1901) 104(1911)
JULY 04 102(1990) 106(1901) 103(1936)
JULY 05 102(1938) 105(1911) 104(1911)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-
MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS
MO-SHELBY MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR JEFFERSON MO-
MADISON MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
CALHOUN IL-PIKE IL.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR BOND IL-CLINTON
IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1004 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW IL TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING SHRA. RUC PICKS UP ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP THIS MORNING
WITH THE FORCING WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH
ANOTHER OUTFLOW MOVING SWD FROM CONVECTION FURTHER N...AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY SHRA WILL DEVELOP
FURTHER W AND THE ONGOING SHRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE CWA. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY KEPT THESE
POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF THIS PRECIP...BELIEVE TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK AS
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY ONLY HELP RAISE DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS.
TILLY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012 (TODAY)
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN
IL HAS DROPPED SWD TO JUST S OF PPQ EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE WERE A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS W CNTRL IL BUT THESE
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TODAY ACROSS NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ALONG THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AS A WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT
DROPS SWD INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND CNTRL IL AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS AFTN. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION S
OF THIS AREA TODAY. BECAUSE OF SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL. FURTHER S LITTLE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED WITH SIMILAR MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...LIKELY RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA AND
PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL WITH A HEAT ADVISORY W OF THIS
REGION FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
GKS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012 (TONIGHT TO FRIDAY)
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOCATION OF EFFECTIVE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CLOUDS/SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT ONGOING HEAT
WAVE. DO NOT THINK THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT HEAT INDEX
READINGS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE 100-106 RANGE BOTH TOMORROW AND
MONDAY. PLAN ON EXTENDING CURRENT HEAT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES INTO
MONDAY. WILL ALSO ADD STE. GENEVIEVE...ST. FRANCOIS AND MADISON
COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. FARMINGTON`S HEAT INDEX
WAS 106 YESTERDAY...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 105 TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
THINK THAT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT DOES LOOK TO MOVE
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
GOING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THINK THAT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS THE FRONT
MOVES TO THE NORTH. INTERESTINGLY...THE NAM DEVELOPS A BULLSEYE OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SO WILL
LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR NOW.
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY GIVEN DEEP MIXING TO 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
THE 22-25C RANGE. STILL EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF I-70 BOTH DAYS...BUT THE
BETTER PERFORMING NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 99-105 RANGE.
FARTHER NORTH...DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER CLOSER THE RETREATING FRONT
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND
100 DEGREES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEK WHICH
LOWERS THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. THE
MODELS DO DEPICT A GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER HIGH NOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER IL ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING
HIGH. THE NEW ECMWF BRINGS A TROPICAL SYSTEM UP INTO SOUTHERN MO ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WILL DISCOUNT BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND GO WITH CONTINUITY WHICH MEANS
STAYING WITH THE HOT AND DRY FORECAST. BOTH MODELS STILL HAVE
850MB TEMPS IN THE 22-24C RANGE WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 100.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE UIN TAF...BUT COULD
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION ACROSS IA AND NRN IL AND AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SWD INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND CNTRL IL THIS EVNG.
THERE WILL BE SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN UIN WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUD COVER FURTHER S AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE CAUSED A TEMPORARY CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION IN UIN AND STL EARLY THIS MRNG...THE PREVAILING
W-SWLY SFC WIND SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS MRNG INCREASING TO AROUND
11-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVNG.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THE CURRENT N-NW WIND AT STL SHOULD SWITCH
BACK TO A W-SWLY SFC WIND LATER THIS MRNG AND INCREASE TO AROUND
11-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS. ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE SFC WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVNG.
GKS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
STILL PLAN ON GOING WITH HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER WORDING FOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. FORECAST 10 HOUR DEAD
FUELS WILL BE 8 PERCENT OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO USE APPROPRIATE WORDING IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BRITT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
RECORD HIGHS
DATE ST. LOUIS COLUMBIA QUINCY
----------------------------------------------
JUNE 30 103(1931) 103(1901) 103(1931)
JULY 01 105(1980) 110(1980) 104(1930)
JULY 02 101(1933) 102(1901) 103(1934)
JULY 03 101(1934) 104(1901) 104(1911)
JULY 04 102(1990) 106(1901) 103(1936)
JULY 05 102(1938) 105(1911) 104(1911)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-
MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS
MO-SHELBY MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR JEFFERSON MO-
MADISON MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
CALHOUN IL-PIKE IL.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR BOND IL-CLINTON
IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
911 AM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY WILL STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING A SUNNY...AND QUIET WEATHER DAY. WITH
DESERT AIR CONFINED SOUTH OF MONTANA...THE DAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL
LIMIT MOST WESTERLY WINDS TODAY TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. HOWEVER
AFTERNOON WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER AREA. MADE ONLY MINOR GRID EDITS TO SKY AND
WIND. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS UP INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... WHILE AN EQUALLY
LARGE TROUGH SETS OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
EXTENDS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA.
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA LIES WEDGED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE
FEATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN
ALLOWS FOR SMALLER RIDGES AND TROUGHS TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.
TODAY THOUGH TONIGHT... RAPID TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO
RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD PUT A DAMPER ON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT THE WARMING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD WITH
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE BASED LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN
TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND BEGIN PULLING IN HIGHER
DEW-POINTS AT THE SURFACE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... A LOBE OF VORTICITY OFF THE LARGE
SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL ZOOM ONSHORE AND MAKE A BEELINE FOR
NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS ENERGY WILL FORM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND LATCH ONTO THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH DRAGGING
IT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE LEE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME A
FOCAL POINT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL EASILY BECOME SEVERE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER GETTING ITS
FETCH OFF OF THE PACIFIC. IT IS MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND THE 700MB
LEVEL IN MIXING RATIOS AND WILL BE RAISING PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR
POINT SOUNDINGS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. CURRENTLY... A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED FORM ON THE LEE TROUGH DURING PEAK
HEATING AROUND 2 TO 4 PM ALONG A LINE FROM OPHEIM TO GLASGOW TO
JORDAN AND DOWN TO MILES CITY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST. QPF
FIELDS IN MODELS HINT TOWARDS SOME POTENTIAL BACK BUILDING SO
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING MAY BE POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AROUND 25 KFT AND CAPE AT THAT LEVEL SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO FORM QUARTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GOLF BALLS. AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING IS PRESENT... HOWEVER SYNOPTIC WINDS APPEAR TO
BE LACKLUSTER. THE SURFACE PROFILE FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO
MODIFY DUE TO THE HIGH PW. BECAUSE OF THIS...STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE THE MAIN
SHOW. ANYWHERE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR OVER THE 0-6KM SEEMS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LONG LASTING SUPERCELLS ALONG BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS.
NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS EVENT BUT FURTHER DETAILS MAY
BE SKETCHY UNTIL 12 TO 18 HOURS IN WHEN HIRESARW AND HRRR MODELS
CAN START PINNING MOST LIKELY STORM GROWTH AREAS OR WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BEGINS TO PICK UP ON THE STRONGEST JET STREAKS.
MONDAY... FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE ZONAL
BY THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GAH
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PULL HOT AIR AND MODERATELY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. NO PARTICULARLY STRONG SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION...BUT MAY HAVE A WAVE PUSH INTO CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES LATE
IN THE WEEK. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
A HIGH PRESSURE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTROL
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FOR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS
UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THEM TO 10
TO 15 KTS. MARTIN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
338 AM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS UP INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... WHILE AN
EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH SETS OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND EXTENDS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA.
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA LIES WEDGED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE
FEATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN
ALLOWS FOR SMALLER RIDGES AND TROUGHS TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.
TODAY THOUGH TONIGHT... RAPID TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO
RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD PUT A DAMPER ON SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE WARMING.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD WITH INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE BASED LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH SETS UP OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND BEGIN PULLING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... A LOBE OF VORTICITY OFF THE LARGE
SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL ZOOM ONSHORE AND MAKE A BEELINE FOR NORTHERN
MONTANA. THIS ENERGY WILL FORM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
LATCH ONTO THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH DRAGGING IT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE LEE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME A FOCAL POINT
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL EASILY BECOME SEVERE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER GETTING
ITS FETCH OFF OF THE PACIFIC. IT IS MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND THE
700MB LEVEL IN MIXING RATIOS AND WILL BE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOR POINT SOUNDINGS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. CURRENTLY... A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED FORM ON THE LEE TROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING AROUND 2 TO 4 PM ALONG A LINE FROM OPHEIM TO GLASGOW
TO JORDAN AND DOWN TO MILES CITY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST. QPF
FIELDS IN MODELS HINT TOWARDS SOME POTENTIAL BACK BUILDING SO
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING MAY BE POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AROUND 25 KFT AND CAPE AT THAT LEVEL SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO FORM QUARTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GOLF BALLS. AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING IS PRESENT... HOWEVER SYNOPTIC WINDS APPEAR TO
BE LACKLUSTER. THE SURFACE PROFILE FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO
MODIFY DUE TO THE HIGH PW. BECAUSE OF THIS...STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE THE MAIN
SHOW. ANYWHERE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR OVER THE 0-6KM SEEMS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LONG LASTING SUPERCELLS ALONG BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS.
NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS EVENT BUT FURTHER DETAILS MAY
BE SKETCHY UNTIL 12 TO 18 HOURS IN WHEN HIRESARW AND HRRR MODELS
CAN START PINNING MOST LIKELY STORM GROWTH AREAS OR WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BEGINS TO PICK UP ON THE STRONGEST JET STREAKS.
MONDAY... FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE ZONAL
BY THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GAH
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PULL HOT AIR AND MODERATELY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. NO PARTICULARLY STRONG SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION...BUT MAY HAVE A WAVE PUSH INTO CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES LATE
IN THE WEEK. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS TODAY...GOING AROUND TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. RAE
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1244 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KLBF AND KVTN.
TIMING AND ULTIMATE COVERAGE OF TSRA IS THE FCST PROBLEM OF THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF
IDEAS ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NONE
SEEM TO HAVE IT HANDLED WELL AS OF 17Z. THOUGH TCU/CB CLOSE TO
KLBF ATTM DETAILS ARE HARD TO SEE DUE TO SMOKE AND RESULTING HAZE FROM
SERN WY FIRE CONBINED WITH HIGH SFC DEW POINTS.
REGARDLESS...DEVELOPING TSRA DOES HAVE CG LIGHTNING INCREASING AND
APPEARS TO BE THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MOIST AIR IN THE EAST AND
THE PUSH OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DIVING SEWD FROM SW
SD. BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. FCST SOUNDINGS AND
RECENT TSRA HISTORY SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY TSRA...AND EVEN CURRENT WEAK RETURNS ON KLNX STILL SHOWING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS FOR KVTN...MAIN TSRA COVERAGE INITIALLY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
LATER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING
AROUND FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE ATTM AND IS MOVING INTO NWRN CO.
RESULTING RESPONSE WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF REMAINING TSRA BY EVENING.
QUESTION REMAINS IF THIS WILL OCCUR EAST OF KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. CURRENT FCST IS DESIGNED SUCH THAT BETTER COVERAGE WILL
HAPPEN EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS POINT. IF WINDS GO LIGHT IN THE KLBF
VCNTY OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF LLWS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
UPDATE...UPDATED FCST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ZONES.
APPEARS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING FLATTENED RIDGE WORKING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
EASTERN CANADA. THE LOCAL AREA WAS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
A SYSTEM WHICH HAD MOVED INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED THIS PATTERN...AND ALSO PICKED UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN WYOMING.
AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM
THE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO AROUND 70 AT KLBF.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KIEN TO KOGA THROUGH
KMCK AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH EASTERLY WINDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOW TODAY/S WEATHER PANS OUT WILL DEPEND ON IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE WYOMING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. THE 30.00Z AND 30.06Z
NAM FIRE STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND THE
RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS...BUT THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS TO DO SO. THE GFS/EC/GEM
ARE ALL DRY WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND DOES DEVELOP STORMS...BUT
KEEPS THEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER...THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE AREA
AND WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...DON/T WANT TO
DISCOUNT ITS OUTPUT. THE ACTIVITY OVER WYOMING IS VERY HIGH BASED
/AROUND 11K FEET/. WILL ASSUME THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MORNING HOURS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND COLLAPSING
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS TOO
WILL BE HIGH BASED AND WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DON/T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WITH THESE CHANCES AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
THIS EVENING...KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THROUGH TONIGHT.
NOT A MAJOR THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE WARMTH OF THE LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THERE IS 30 TO 45KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO CAN/T DISCOUNT
AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM BUT THINKING THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WINDS. DID DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY
DUE MAINLY TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. BUT IT WILL STILL
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW AGAIN WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO PUSH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY SO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY KEEP SOME OF THIS FROM HAPPENING SO
MAY HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THEN MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NEBRASKA SITS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FULL MIXING ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DID TAKE INTO ACCOUNT HIGHER CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY SO DIDN/T GO AS
WARM IN THE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS. STILL EXPECTING MID TO
UPPER 90S THOUGH. MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA LOOKING TO BE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN.
NO END IS IN SITE FOR THE WARMTH AS THE MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND SOME DAYS HITTING 100 DEGREES OR BETTER. BY
FRIDAY EVENING THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T HAVE ANY DAYS WITH CONDITIONS
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. SUNDAY MAY BE CLOSE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR FIRE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE TAF PERIOD...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITE AND MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WHILE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...DECIDED TO GO
WITH A TEMPO GROUP MAINLY AFTER 0Z BASED ON MODEL TIME HEIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND PULLED MENTION OF FOG FROM THE
FORECAST...AS VISIBILITIES IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO PER RADAR IMAGERY SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF FURNAS AND
GOSPER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
UPDATE...11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KGLD...TO NEAR KHJH...TO JUST SOUTH
OF KLNK. A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENT POOLING
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH FOG NOW DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 2-5
MILES...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THREE SITES INCLUDING KHSI...KEAR
AND KHDE HAVE FALLEN 1/4SM OR LESS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
6 THROUGH 14Z. RAP ANALYSIS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INDICATE THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY
SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY ONCE DIABATIC HEATING
INTENSIFIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL HOLD OFF
FROM ANY FOG HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DID INCLUDE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IN THE HWO AND INTRODUCED A NOW-CAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...AND 06Z NAM ALL INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
WILL BE HIGH BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL. STEERING WINDS
ARE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING IS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
STILL BE THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEK AHEAD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN NEAR BUT
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CATEGORY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY MORNING
TAKING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND ACT TO PUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN SATURDAY...AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY WILL BE RIGHT
NEAR THE 105 CRITERIA FOR ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF KINEMATIC FORCING DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THUS PRESENTING DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD SUGGESTS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN/EVNG...BUT HITTING ONE OF THE TAF SITES IS STILL IN SOME DOUBT.
THIS WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE BEST CHC AT OFK AND WILL INCLUDE AN
AFTN TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHRA THERE AND WILL MONITOR FOR THE THREAT
OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE WILL INCLUDE SOME VCSH FOR BOTH OMA/LNK AND
WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF
ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER THERE. OTHERWISE IF IT DOES RAIN AT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR HZ TOWARD SUN MRNG. SRLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUN WITH A SCT MID LEVEL DECK.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL SD/CENTRAL NEB AND TOWARD NORTHEAST NEB. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9C AND AN AXIS OF 850MB
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...INDICATING A SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO NORTHEAST NEB FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
SHRA/ISO TS MENTION TO THE NORTHWESTERNMOST CWA.
MAYES
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA HAS IGNITED ISOLATED STORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ONLY IN A COUPLE OF COUNTIES IN OUR AREA
IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA. BELIEVE THAT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 AM.
MEANWHILE...STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED NEAR THE
NE/KS BORDER REGION TODAY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S ALONG
WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. VERY OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY OF RECENT
DAYS HAS MIXED OUT JUST A BIT...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY...
WHILE STILL HOT...WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER ALONG IT EARLY IN THE EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...A VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES COULD GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO OUR LOCAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND...ESPECIALLY
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEBRASKA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
FOCUSED...THUS HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR A
POSSIBLE MCS THAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NE/SD/IA BORDER AREA
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WELL.
IF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MCS DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. THEREAFTER...THE STALLED
FRONT DOES BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN OUR AREA
WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEEK
OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
HOLIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERY
DAY...VERY NEAR 100 AT TIMES. HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY
OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DAILY HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 EVERY DAY...BUT GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE MAY
BREAK DOWN JUST A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR VERY SMALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO RETURN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
940 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND PULLED MENTION OF FOG FROM THE
FORECAST...AS VISIBILITIES IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO PER RADAR IMAGERY SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF FURNAS AND
GOSPER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
UPDATE...11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KGLD...TO NEAR KHJH...TO JUST SOUTH
OF KLNK. A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENT POOLING
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH FOG NOW DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 2-5
MILES...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THREE SITES INCLUDING KHSI...KEAR
AND KHDE HAVE FALLEN 1/4SM OR LESS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
6 THROUGH 14Z. RAP ANALYSIS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INDICATE THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY
SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY ONCE DIABATIC HEATING
INTENSIFIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL HOLD OFF
FROM ANY FOG HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DID INCLUDE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IN THE HWO AND INTRODUCED A NOW-CAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE TAF VALID TIME. THE WIND WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS HAPPENING LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT OR
LESS AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES IN THE TAF DUE TO THE
PROBABILITY BEING VERY LOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT LOW STRATUS CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...AND 06Z NAM ALL INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
WILL BE HIGH BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL. STEERING WINDS
ARE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING IS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
STILL BE THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEK AHEAD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN NEAR BUT
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CATEGORY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY MORNING
TAKING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND ACT TO PUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN SATURDAY...AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY WILL BE RIGHT
NEAR THE 105 CRITERIA FOR ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF KINEMATIC FORCING DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THUS PRESENTING DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD SUGGESTS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
856 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL SD/CENTRAL NEB AND TOWARD NORTHEAST NEB. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9C AND AN AXIS OF 850MB
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...INDICATING A SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO NORTHEAST NEB FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
SHRA/ISO TS MENTION TO THE NORTHWESTERNMOST CWA.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z
AS UPPER WAVE INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. NOTHING
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH.
FOBERT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA HAS IGNITED ISOLATED STORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ONLY IN A COUPLE OF COUNTIES IN OUR AREA
IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA. BELIEVE THAT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 AM.
MEANWHILE...STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED NEAR THE
NE/KS BORDER REGION TODAY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S ALONG
WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. VERY OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY OF RECENT
DAYS HAS MIXED OUT JUST A BIT...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY...
WHILE STILL HOT...WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER ALONG IT EARLY IN THE EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...A VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES COULD GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO OUR LOCAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND...ESPECIALLY
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEBRASKA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
FOCUSED...THUS HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR A
POSSIBLE MCS THAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NE/SD/IA BORDER AREA
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WELL.
IF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MCS DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. THEREAFTER...THE STALLED
FRONT DOES BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN OUR AREA
WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEEK
OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
HOLIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERY
DAY...VERY NEAR 100 AT TIMES. HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY
OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DAILY HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 EVERY DAY...BUT GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE MAY
BREAK DOWN JUST A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR VERY SMALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO RETURN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
846 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...UPDATED FCST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ZONES.
APPEARS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING FLATTENED RIDGE WORKING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF LBF. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY COULD EVEN GO BELOW INSTRUMENT MINIMA AT TIMES. AFTER
SUNRISE...THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST SIMULATIONS REGARDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH A FRONT OSCILLATING NORTH AND
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THERE IS A SYSTEM TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MY
CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP THE
PROB30 GROUPS FROM THE FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN SINCE THEY HAVE
BEEN IN THE FORECASTS FOR BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z SCHEDULED TAF CYCLES.
THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE TWO PRIMARY MODELS INDICATES THAT A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE. ANYWAY...THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA IS THIS
EVENING 00-06Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
EASTERN CANADA. THE LOCAL AREA WAS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
A SYSTEM WHICH HAD MOVED INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED THIS PATTERN...AND ALSO PICKED UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN WYOMING.
AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM
THE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO AROUND 70 AT KLBF.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KIEN TO KOGA THROUGH
KMCK AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH EASTERLY WINDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOW TODAY/S WEATHER PANS OUT WILL DEPEND ON IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE WYOMING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. THE 30.00Z AND 30.06Z
NAM FIRE STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND THE
RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS...BUT THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS TO DO SO. THE GFS/EC/GEM
ARE ALL DRY WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND DOES DEVELOP STORMS...BUT
KEEPS THEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER...THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE AREA
AND WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...DON/T WANT TO
DISCOUNT ITS OUTPUT. THE ACTIVITY OVER WYOMING IS VERY HIGH BASED
/AROUND 11K FEET/. WILL ASSUME THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MORNING HOURS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND COLLAPSING
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS TOO
WILL BE HIGH BASED AND WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DON/T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WITH THESE CHANCES AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
THIS EVENING...KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THROUGH TONIGHT.
NOT A MAJOR THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE WARMTH OF THE LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THERE IS 30 TO 45KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO CAN/T DISCOUNT
AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM BUT THINKING THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WINDS. DID DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY
DUE MAINLY TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. BUT IT WILL STILL
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW AGAIN WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO PUSH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY SO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY KEEP SOME OF THIS FROM HAPPENING SO
MAY HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THEN MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NEBRASKA SITS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FULL MIXING ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DID TAKE INTO ACCOUNT HIGHER CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY SO DIDN/T GO AS
WARM IN THE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS. STILL EXPECTING MID TO
UPPER 90S THOUGH. MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA LOOKING TO BE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN.
NO END IS IN SITE FOR THE WARMTH AS THE MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND SOME DAYS HITTING 100 DEGREES OR BETTER. BY
FRIDAY EVENING THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T HAVE ANY DAYS WITH CONDITIONS
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. SUNDAY MAY BE CLOSE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR FIRE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
646 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KGLD...TO NEAR KHJH...TO JUST SOUTH
OF KLNK. A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENT POOLING
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH FOG NOW DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 2-5
MILES...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THREE SITES INCLUDING KHSI...KEAR
AND KHDE HAVE FALLEN 1/4SM OR LESS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
6 THROUGH 14Z. RAP ANALYSIS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INDICATE THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY
SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY ONCE DIABATIC HEATING
INTENSIFIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL HOLD OFF
FROM ANY FOG HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DID INCLUDE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IN THE HWO AND INTRODUCED A NOW-CAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE TAF VALID TIME. THE WIND WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS HAPPENING LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT OR
LESS AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES IN THE TAF DUE TO THE
PROBABILITY BEING VERY LOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT LOW STRATUS CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...AND 06Z NAM ALL INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
WILL BE HIGH BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL. STEERING WINDS
ARE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING IS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
STILL BE THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEK AHEAD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN NEAR BUT
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CATEGORY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY MORNING
TAKING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND ACT TO PUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN SATURDAY...AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY WILL BE RIGHT
NEAR THE 105 CRITERIA FOR ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF KINEMATIC FORCING DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THUS PRESENTING DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD SUGGESTS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/LONG TERM...BRYANT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
639 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF LBF. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY COULD EVEN GO BELOW INSTRUMENT MINIMA AT TIMES. AFTER
SUNRISE...THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST SIMULATIONS REGARDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH A FRONT OSCILLATING NORTH AND
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THERE IS A SYSTEM TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MY
CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP THE
PROB30 GROUPS FROM THE FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN SINCE THEY HAVE
BEEN IN THE FORECASTS FOR BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z SCHEDULED TAF CYCLES.
THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE TWO PRIMARY MODELS INDICATES THAT A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE. ANYWAY...THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA IS THIS
EVENING 00-06Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
EASTERN CANADA. THE LOCAL AREA WAS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
A SYSTEM WHICH HAD MOVED INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED THIS PATTERN...AND ALSO PICKED UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN WYOMING.
AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM
THE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO AROUND 70 AT KLBF.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KIEN TO KOGA THROUGH
KMCK AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH EASTERLY WINDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOW TODAY/S WEATHER PANS OUT WILL DEPEND ON IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE WYOMING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. THE 30.00Z AND 30.06Z
NAM FIRE STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND THE
RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS...BUT THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS TO DO SO. THE GFS/EC/GEM
ARE ALL DRY WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND DOES DEVELOP STORMS...BUT
KEEPS THEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER...THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE AREA
AND WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...DON/T WANT TO
DISCOUNT ITS OUTPUT. THE ACTIVITY OVER WYOMING IS VERY HIGH BASED
/AROUND 11K FEET/. WILL ASSUME THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MORNING HOURS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND COLLAPSING
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS TOO
WILL BE HIGH BASED AND WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DON/T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WITH THESE CHANCES AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
THIS EVENING...KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THROUGH TONIGHT.
NOT A MAJOR THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE WARMTH OF THE LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THERE IS 30 TO 45KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO CAN/T DISCOUNT
AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM BUT THINKING THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WINDS. DID DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY
DUE MAINLY TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. BUT IT WILL STILL
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW AGAIN WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO PUSH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY SO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY KEEP SOME OF THIS FROM HAPPENING SO
MAY HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THEN MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NEBRASKA SITS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FULL MIXING ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DID TAKE INTO ACCOUNT HIGHER CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY SO DIDN/T GO AS
WARM IN THE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS. STILL EXPECTING MID TO
UPPER 90S THOUGH. MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA LOOKING TO BE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN.
NO END IS IN SITE FOR THE WARMTH AS THE MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND SOME DAYS HITTING 100 DEGREES OR BETTER. BY
FRIDAY EVENING THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T HAVE ANY DAYS WITH CONDITIONS
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. SUNDAY MAY BE CLOSE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR FIRE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
406 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
EASTERN CANADA. THE LOCAL AREA WAS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
A SYSTEM WHICH HAD MOVED INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED THIS PATTERN...AND ALSO PICKED UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN WYOMING.
AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM
THE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO AROUND 70 AT KLBF.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KIEN TO KOGA THROUGH
KMCK AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH EASTERLY WINDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOW TODAY/S WEATHER PANS OUT WILL DEPEND ON IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE WYOMING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. THE 30.00Z AND 30.06Z
NAM FIRE STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND THE
RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS...BUT THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS TO DO SO. THE GFS/EC/GEM
ARE ALL DRY WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND DOES DEVELOP STORMS...BUT
KEEPS THEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER...THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE AREA
AND WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...DON/T WANT TO
DISCOUNT ITS OUTPUT. THE ACTIVITY OVER WYOMING IS VERY HIGH BASED
/AROUND 11K FEET/. WILL ASSUME THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MORNING HOURS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND COLLAPSING
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS TOO
WILL BE HIGH BASED AND WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DON/T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WITH THESE CHANCES AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
THIS EVENING...KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THROUGH TONIGHT.
NOT A MAJOR THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE WARMTH OF THE LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THERE IS 30 TO 45KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO CAN/T DISCOUNT
AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM BUT THINKING THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WINDS. DID DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY
DUE MAINLY TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. BUT IT WILL STILL
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW AGAIN WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO PUSH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY SO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY KEEP SOME OF THIS FROM HAPPENING SO
MAY HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THEN MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NEBRASKA SITS RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FULL MIXING ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DID TAKE INTO ACCOUNT HIGHER CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY SO DIDN/T GO AS
WARM IN THE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS. STILL EXPECTING MID TO
UPPER 90S THOUGH. MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA LOOKING TO BE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN.
NO END IS IN SITE FOR THE WARMTH AS THE MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND SOME DAYS HITTING 100 DEGREES OR BETTER. BY
FRIDAY EVENING THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG FORECASTS REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON OR
OVERNIGHT. WITH A FRONT OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
NEBRASKA...THERE IS A SYSTEM TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST IS
NOT HIGH...BUT I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP THE PROB30 GROUPS FROM THE
FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECASTS FOR
BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z SCHEDULED TAF CYCLES. THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT
FROM THE TWO PRIMARY MODELS INDICATES THAT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE. ANYWAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA IS THIS EVENING
00-06Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
BE UNRESTRICTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T HAVE ANY DAYS WITH CONDITIONS
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. SUNDAY MAY BE CLOSE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR FIRE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...
INTENSE CONVECTION THAT CAUSED WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLIER HAS LEFT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S EAST AND MID 80S WEST THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE MAINTENANCE OF THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE
LINE CURRENTLY CROSSING WV AS IT ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
SOME LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL NC....AND RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS BEING MOST PRONOUNCED FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. A POCKET OF BETTER INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO POP UP...LIKELY
ON OLD OUTFLOWS. THE 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS THE DEEP EML THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES A SLOW
MODIFICATION...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM ABOVE
950MB. THUS...MUCAPE IS STILL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AREAWIDE.
BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR AND UPSTREAM OBS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WELL FORMED COLD POOL WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WV/KY
BORDER...AND ITS TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT AFTER 06Z. THE 23Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE CONVECTION REACHING
THE TRIAD AROUND 05-06Z BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE 00Z RAP SHOWS LITTLE PRECIP EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT OF INCREASING POPS
ELSEWHERE. LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM ...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID-UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE TAKES A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WILL
SLOWLY ABATE AND THAT CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MONDAY STILL A GOOD 20-25M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN VICINITY OF THE CENTURY MARK.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 102
DEGREES NW AND 104-108 IN THE EAST-SE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT MORNING INSOLATION.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE BY MID DAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MAX HEATING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST NOT
EXTENDING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ANOTHER DAY AND INSTEAD GO WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF CENTRAL NC (EXCLUDING THE NW
PIEDMONT). IF CLOUDINESS LESS EXTENSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
CONVECTION APPEARS IT WILL NOT FIRE UNTIL 3 PM OR LATER...COULD SEE
A NEED FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE COMPARABLE TO THIS AFTERNOON AS
BULK SHEAR VECTORS 30-35KTS SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. PLUS
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OFF
THE 12Z GFS 2500-4000 J/KG. THIS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESTABLISHING A NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SEWD IN THIS FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. MAY SEE
CONVECTION AT ANYTIME BASED ON ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCES BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME LEVELS
EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM...
THURSDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THURSDAY WITH MINOR
PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW. THESE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION...MOST
PROMINENT IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN 30-40
PERCENT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROJECTED TO BE GREATEST.
THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING ABOUT 10M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY EXTENDS EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT WILL SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SO WILL
DECREASE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES RESPOND...RETURNING TO AROUND 1440-1445M TERRITORY
BY THE WEEKEND. PLAN TO HAVE MID 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC BY
SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST -- A PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS TIME OF YEAR -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IN THE HOT MID LEVEL
RIDGE...ENCOURAGED BY A TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS
MORNING...BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH PATTERNS SUGGEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO - IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
20 SUGGESTS CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
92 TO 99 AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY AND NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC...IT MAY BE HARD FOR ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
AIRMASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ALOFT...AND THE BEST PROBABILITY
OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR A TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST AT KGSO AND
KINT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE..SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM KRDU EAST WHERE RAINFALL WAS MORE WIDESPREAD...AND A FEW
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
STRONG HEATING DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN AND
WHERE DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL TRIGGER
STORMS...BUT SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT COULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS. SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING THIS EVENING WITH
STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING AGITATION
IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO SOUND TO UPSTATE
SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID
CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
LOCALLY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION
THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO
COUNTY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW
HEIGHTENED CONVG INTO THE TROUGH IN THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE
MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC SO THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH
RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE 100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES
OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES
BUT THE MLCAPES OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG...AND SHOW THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER
THAN THE OBVIOUS FORECAST/POP RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FEELS OF HEIGHTENED IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL
TURN SEVERE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DUE THE EXTREME UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION EXPECTED.
NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.
EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
BY THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH
OF 40KT 500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE
STORMS DO FIRE THEY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED
`THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE` BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME
VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS HERE IN THE
CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH HOWEVER THESE VALUES
WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY
STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY
`FAT` CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C FAVORING THE GROWTH OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR HAIL IN THE LATEST
SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY
HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO
BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE RESULTING FROM BAND OF
WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY. THE EXTREME HEAT IN
PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST
DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE TORNADO THREAT
NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION A DECENT
POSSIBILITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST TIMING WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES
AWAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH MAY
ALSO REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
THROUGH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. TRIGGERS INCLUDE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM SWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RIGHT NOW BORDERLINE
ON MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE
AS TO IF AND WHEN WE ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA UNDER NORTHEAST
EDGE OF 5H RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
BY A 5H TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA MORE OR LESS IN DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUD. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK TO ENHANCE
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. POP VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES EARLIER. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLING A
LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED ALL TERMINALS IN SOME FORM
OR ANOTHER ARE ON THE WANE AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE ARE
A FEW UPSTREAM STORMS THAT HAVE A CHANCE TO AFFECT TERMINALS THROUGH
03Z OR SO...MAINLY ILM AND FLO. AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN...WE COULD
SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY.
FOR NOW...TAFS REFLECT MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND ABOUT 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS TONIGHT
TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SCT STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
AND OVER THE WATERS AT THIS TIME. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE
WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE
MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEST ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHOW
IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR MARINE
WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 15 KT. PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL ENHANCED PIEDMONT TROUGH...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND
SUBTLE EXPANSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASES IN
SPEEDS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST OCCASIONAL 20 KT IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR
THU/FRI...MAINLY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 1 FT OR SO SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...LATEST ETSURGE MDL FORECAST DATA SHOWS A
POSITIVE HALF FOOT ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...JUST BREACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR LOW LYING AREAS ADJOINING
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE WILL BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. SAME
DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHTS EVENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...MJC/III/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1036 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS AFTER THIS AREA EXITS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL. WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CHANCES GOING...
ALTHOUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO FURTHER REFINE. ITS
COOLER ACROSS THE CLOUDY AND RAIN AREAS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL...BUT THIS LIKELY TO RECOVER AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...AT 10 AM CDT...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THE
LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITE THROUGH THE
12Z TAF. KJMS LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
18Z THEN AFTER 00Z. KDIK/KISN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. KBIS/KMOT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ELONGATED NORTH TO
SOUTH IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUOUSLY
FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TODAY. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE LINEAR FORMATION WILL TAKE SHAPE BY SUNRISE. WILL BE WATCHING
THIS CLOSELY AS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
RESIDES IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL.
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AN INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG THE TROUGH WITH MU CAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 30 TO 40KT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. IN PARTICULAR WILL BE THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING WEST TO BISMARCK. HAIL/WIND ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH A TORNADO THREAT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT CONTINUES PAST 06Z SUNDAY WILL BECOME
ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SEVERE PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...WILL BEGIN
TO SPROUT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING AND GROW
UPSCALE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE MOST
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN FOR A HOT/HUMID SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85F AND 95F.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S WILL PROVIDE A RIPE ATMOSPHERE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT LEE SIDE LOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA THAT COULD
DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT TRACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE LATE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THERE ARE AS USUAL SOME TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES...HOWEVER SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM A CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE AT THIS TIME.
THIS RESULTS IN A HOT AND MUGGY HOLIDAY WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. CURRENTLY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR-IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM WILLISTON SOUTHEAST INTO KILLDEER AND
APPROACHING BISMARCK. HAVE EXPANDED POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THUS FAR...ALL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
BELOW SEVERE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS
EAST FROM SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FORMS ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MINOT TO BISMARCK BY 12Z. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM EARLIER.
&&
.AVIATION...30/06Z ISSUANCE...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KDIK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KISN/KMOT/KBIS CAN EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS...AND HAVE ALSO FRAMED
A 2-3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA FOR MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF STORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT...BEGINNING AT KISN
AROUND 11Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
322 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL
AREA MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU HAS FORMED. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER IL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD CLIP THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROBABLY A
LITTLE OVERDONE BUT NOT COMFORTABLE GOING OUT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SO WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL MENTION. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NO MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES WEAK IMPULSES INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT. TOUGH TO KNOW WHICH OF THESE IMPULSES ARE LEGIT
AND WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THINK THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THERE WI ILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO EDGE
NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE MOVE THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY WILL LIKELY NEED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL MENTION OF PRECIP EVERY PERIOD. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING THURSDAY GFS AND ECMWF A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO POPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BUT
CONTINUING TO LEAN TOWARD A WELL ABOVE NORMAL PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FINDLAY SYSTEM REMAINS OUT AND WILL NOT HAVE ASOS DATA FOR
AMENDMENTS. AMENDMENT NOT SCHEDULED STILL ATTACHED TO TAF.
A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTH OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW GIVEN LOW PROBABILITIES
COULD ONLY MENTION SOME VCSH AT A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MVFR VIS DEVELOPING. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
THIS AND GIVEN THE SITUATION IT SEEMS REASONABLE.
.OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE LAKE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE CAUSING INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE LAKE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ACTUALLY BE BRIEF WIND AND WAVE
ACTIVITY CAUSED BY CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL MEANDER NORTH AND
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO NE OH AND NW PA AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CONVECTION OVER IL WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL MENTION OF PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE IT STAYS FURTHER N. CLOUDS OVERHEAD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT AND EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS...SATELLITE SHOWS MCS TO OUR WEST WITH RADAR SHOWING PRECIP ABOUT
TO MOVE INTO NWRN OHIO. HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BUT
CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE MORNING WEST BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST
IF SYSTEM DOESN`T DISSIPATE OR PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS THESE SYSTEMS
USUALLY DO. FOR THE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AREA. INSTABILITY DOES REACH INTO THE AREA BUT BEST VALUES
FORECAST TO BE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION
WHILE HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE CANADIAN AND NEW ENGLAND COAST.
INITIALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SAGS SOUTH.
850MB TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 20C TO 16C BY SUNDAY 12Z. AS HEIGHTS
BUILD IN THE PLAINS THE FRONT WILL RETURN WARM AND CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE TROF SAGS ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD GET A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE
POPS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP NORTHEAST INVOF
BEST MOISTURE AND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HERE WE GO AGAIN IN THIS UP AND DOWN SUMMER OF HEAT. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SURGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND THIS MEANS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE AND THEREFORE BRING BACK A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL HAVE
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO KEEP THE
MENTION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO
WILL THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO HOT DRY WEATHER LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN
NEXT WEEK FOR HIGHS WITH 60S AND 70S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST NOTE IS FINDLAY SYSTEM IS OUT AND WILL NOT HAVE ASOS DATA FOR
AMENDMENTS. SO...HAD TO GO WITH AMENDMENT NOT SCHEDULED.
REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS FINDLAY...MANSFIELD...AKRON
CANTON...AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING WITH THE FEATURE
IS VERY LIMITED AND SPORADIC AT THIS POINT. MAINLY EXPECTING A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FEATURE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING SOME MINOR FOG TO DEVELOP WHERE THE RAIN OCCURRED LAST
COUPLE DAYS SO WILL MENTION ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO STRONG
GRADIENT CHANGES EXPECTED SO WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
PROBLEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL MEANDER NORTH AND
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS MCS TO OUR WEST WITH RADAR SHOWING PRECIP ABOUT TO
MOVE INTO NWRN OHIO. HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BUT CONTINUING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE MORNING WEST BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FURTHER EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST IF
SYSTEM DOESN`T DISSIPATE OR PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS THESE SYSTEMS
USUALLY DO. FOR THE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AREA. INSTABILITY DOES REACH INTO THE AREA BUT BEST VALUES
FORECAST TO BE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION
WHILE HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE CANADIAN AND NEW ENGLAND COAST.
INITIALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SAGS SOUTH.
850MB TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 20C TO 16C BY SUNDAY 12Z. AS HEIGHTS
BUILD IN THE PLAINS THE FRONT WILL RETURN WARM AND CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE TROF SAGS ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD GET A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE
POPS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP NORTHEAST INVOF
BEST MOISTURE AND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HERE WE GO AGAIN IN THIS UP AND DOWN SUMMER OF HEAT. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SURGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND THIS MEANS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE AND THEREFORE BRING BACK A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL HAVE
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO KEEP THE
MENTION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO
WILL THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO HOT DRY WEATHER LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN
NEXT WEEK FOR HIGHS WITH 60S AND 70S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST NOTE IS FINDLAY SYSTEM IS OUT AND WILL NOT HAVE ASOS DATA FOR
AMENDMENTS. SO...HAD TO GO WITH AMENDMENT NOT SCHEDULED.
REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS FINDLAY...MANSFIELD...AKRON
CANTON...AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING WITH THE FEATURE
IS VERY LIMITED AND SPORADIC AT THIS POINT. MAINLY EXPECTING A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FEATURE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING SOME MINOR FOG TO DEVELOP WHERE THE RAIN OCCURRED LAST
COUPLE DAYS SO WILL MENTION ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO STRONG
GRADIENT CHANGES EXPECTED SO WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
PROBLEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL MEANDER NORTH AND
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS MCS TO OUR WEST WITH RADAR SHOWING PRECIP ABOUT TO
MOVE INTO NWRN OHIO. HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BUT CONTINUING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE MORNING WEST BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FURTHER EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST IF
SYSTEM DOESN`T DISSIPATE OR PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS THESE SYSTEMS
USUALLY DO. FOR THE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AREA. INSTABILITY DOES REACH INTO THE AREA BUT BEST VALUES
FORECAST TO BE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION
WHILE HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE CANADIAN AND NEW ENGLAND COAST.
INITIALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SAGS SOUTH.
850MB TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 20C TO 16C BY SUNDAY 12Z. AS HEIGHTS
BUILD IN THE PLAINS THE FRONT WILL RETURN WARM AND CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE TROF SAGS ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD GET A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE
POPS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP NORTHEAST INVOF
BEST MOISTURE AND THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HERE WE GO AGAIN IN THIS UP AND DOWN SUMMER OF HEAT. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SURGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND THIS MEANS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE AND THEREFORE BRING BACK A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL HAVE
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO KEEP THE
MENTION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO
WILL THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO HOT DRY WEATHER LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN
NEXT WEEK FOR HIGHS WITH 60S AND 70S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST NOTE IS MANSFIELD AND FINDLAY SYSTEMS ARE OUT AND WILL NOT
HAVE ASOS DATA FOR AMENDMENTS. SO...HAD TO GO WITH AMENDMENT NOT
SCHEDULED.
UPPER LEVEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WILL RACE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS NORTH INDIANA AT THIS TIME. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
SOME CYCLING BETWEEN WEAKENING AND STRENGTHENING. LATEST SPC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO THE CURRENT LOCATION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT MORE FAVORABLE AIR IS TRYING TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AROUND 12Z IN THE
MORNING IN TOLEDO AND WITH DAY TIME HEATING STARTING...SOME
FUELING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AS
IT MOVES INTO OHIO.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION GENERAL THUNDER WITH THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL NOT MENTION
ANY PROBLEMS AT ERIE AS THE FEATURE COULD TURN SOUTH OF ERIE. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW THINGS GO ON WHETHER TO ADD THUNDER AT ERIE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
.OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO STRONG
GRADIENT CHANGES EXPECTED SO WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
PROBLEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO EXPAND POPS IN TIME TO COVER LINGERING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ALSO...THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND ONE OR TWO COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HOLDING WELL.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREADING EAST.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THIS MORNING IS ROLLING EAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY
MORNING THE HRRR HANDLED MORNING CONVECTION VERY WELL. THIS
MORNING...HRRR IS SHOWING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN PUSHES
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS REALLY NO NOTEWORTHY UPPER
WAVE TO THE WEST TO IGNITE ANYTHING. THIS SAID...MODELS ARE
INITIALIZING A VORT MAXIMA OVER WYOMING AND THERE IS SOME ACCAS
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. NOTHING CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. HRRR MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UP THROUGH 12Z AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AFTER
THAT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF ACCAS/PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BY 12Z...WILL HAVE TO RETHINK CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR LATER TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. STRONGEST CAPPING IS
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKEST
REGION FURTHER WEST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI RES MODELS
INDICATING SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL
RATHER DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TODAY THOUGH.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IMPRESSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITY WILL COME ALONG WITH THIS. COULD BE LOOKING AT
POSSIBLY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TIGHT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...IT GETS DAMPENED SOME AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPATTERINGS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TRACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BIGGEST HINDRANCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION WILL BE A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE...LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION...KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
CELSIUS WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS...WITH PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY TO SEE 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...HAVE ADDED
IN SOME VCTS TO KMBG/KPIR BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1053 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO EXPAND POPS IN TIME TO COVER LINGERING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ALSO...THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND ONE OR TWO COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HOLDING WELL.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREADING EAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THIS MORNING IS ROLLING EAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY
MORNING THE HRRR HANDLED MORNING CONVECTION VERY WELL. THIS
MORNING...HRRR IS SHOWING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN PUSHES
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS REALLY NO NOTEWORTHY UPPER
WAVE TO THE WEST TO IGNITE ANYTHING. THIS SAID...MODELS ARE
INITIALIZING A VORT MAXIMA OVER WYOMING AND THERE IS SOME ACCAS
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. NOTHING CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. HRRR MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UP THROUGH 12Z AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AFTER
THAT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF ACCAS/PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BY 12Z...WILL HAVE TO RETHINK CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR LATER TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. STRONGEST CAPPING IS
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKEST
REGION FURTHER WEST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI RES MODELS
INDICATING SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL
RATHER DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TODAY THOUGH.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IMPRESSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITY WILL COME ALONG WITH THIS. COULD BE LOOKING AT
POSSIBLY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TIGHT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...IT GETS DAMPENED SOME AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPATTERINGS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TRACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BIGGEST HINDRANCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION WILL BE A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE...LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION...KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
CELSIUS WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS...WITH PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY TO SEE 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LIGHT
FOG...GENERALLY AROUND 4SM...WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN WILL DISSIPATE. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
631 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THIS MORNING IS ROLLING EAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY
MORNING THE HRRR HANDLED MORNING CONVECTION VERY WELL. THIS
MORNING...HRRR IS SHOWING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN PUSHES
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS REALLY NO NOTEWORTHY UPPER
WAVE TO THE WEST TO IGNITE ANYTHING. THIS SAID...MODELS ARE
INITIALIZING A VORT MAXIMA OVER WYOMING AND THERE IS SOME ACCAS
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. NOTHING CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. HRRR MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UP THROUGH 12Z AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AFTER
THAT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF ACCAS/PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BY 12Z...WILL HAVE TO RETHINK CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR LATER TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. STRONGEST CAPPING IS
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKEST
REGION FURTHER WEST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI RES MODELS
INDICATING SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL
RATHER DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TODAY THOUGH.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IMPRESSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITY WILL COME ALONG WITH THIS. COULD BE LOOKING AT
POSSIBLY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TIGHT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...IT GETS DAMPENED SOME AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPATTERINGS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TRACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BIGGEST HINDRANCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION WILL BE A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE...LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION...KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
CELSIUS WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS...WITH PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY TO SEE 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LIGHT
FOG...GENERALLY AROUND 4SM...WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN WILL DISSIPATE. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
358 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THIS MORNING IS ROLLING EAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY
MORNING THE HRRR HANDLED MORNING CONVECTION VERY WELL. THIS
MORNING...HRRR IS SHOWING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN PUSHES
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS REALLY NO NOTEWORTHY UPPER
WAVE TO THE WEST TO IGNITE ANYTHING. THIS SAID...MODELS ARE
INITIALIZING A VORT MAXIMA OVER WYOMING AND THERE IS SOME ACCAS
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. NOTHING CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. HRRR MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UP THROUGH 12Z AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AFTER
THAT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF ACCAS/PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BY 12Z...WILL HAVE TO RETHINK CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR LATER TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. STRONGEST CAPPING IS
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKEST
REGION FURTHER WEST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI RES MODELS
INDICATING SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL
RATHER DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TODAY THOUGH.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IMPRESSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITY WILL COME ALONG WITH THIS. COULD BE LOOKING AT
POSSIBLY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TIGHT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...IT GETS DAMPENED SOME AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPATTERINGS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TRACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BIGGEST HINDRANCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION WILL BE A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE...LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION...KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
CELSIUS WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS...WITH PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER
90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKELY TO SEE 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN ALL
TAFS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1029 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE AS A WEAK TROF ALOFT APPROACHES.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL...THOUGH DETAILS DIFFER. A SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND
TROF...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
ANY OF THE STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2012/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES...WITH SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MT THROUGH THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLD TSTM IN OUR NWRN
ZONES...BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EWD
SHOULD BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING INTO UT WILL TOP THE
UPPER RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP
ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES FOR A FEW AFTN/EVE TSTMS. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-90. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE HOT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST.
SUNDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN SD...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REACHING NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. SMALL CHANCES FOR TSTMS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WRN TWO-THIRDS ZONES AS SURFACE TROF PUSHES THROUGH WY
DURING THE AFTN AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM. PERIODIC WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ACROSS THE RIDGE
BRINGING NEAR DAILY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR -TSRA TO VARYING PARTS OF
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...BARBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 01/18Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...
UA HIGH PRESSURE MAXIMA LOCATED ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND THE
SERN CONUS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUAL WESTWARD RETROGRADING UA LOW
ACROSS SERN TEXAS...WAS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS MORNING...AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...A GENERAL WEAKNESS
IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EXIST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALBEIT STILL
WARM WITH A TEMP RANGE OF 95-101 ANTICIPATED.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OR BASICALLY EAST OF THE
UA RIDGE THAT IS ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH NORTH OF
THE REGION COMBINED WITH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...AND PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS IS NOW MOVING SSE ACROSS YOAKUM AND TERRY
COUNTIES /AT LEAST WHAT IS LEFT OF IT/. IT IS OF NOTE TO ALSO
MENTION A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
EASTERN LYNN TO NORTHEASTERN CROSBY COUNTY...COINCIDING WITH BETTER
DEWPOINTS....AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS
INDUCED ADDITIONAL LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS FLOYD AND MOTLEY COUNTIES.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LINE
OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCUMULATE A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...FOR THE MERE FACT OF TRAINING OCCURRING. THE
LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING TO THE SW ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF THE UA RIDGE/S INFLUENCE. THE RUC SOLUTION IS BEST
HANDLING THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALBEIT...A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN REGARD TO COVERAGE. HOWEVER THE RUC DOES SHOW PRECIP
DISSIPATED BY AOA 15Z AND HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SAID AREAS UNTIL 15Z.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. A SFC
TROUGH NNW OF THE FA AND A CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME WILL
LEAD TO THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION OF A REPEAT SCENARIO OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED
OFF THE CAPROCK...BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE ON THE CAPROCK...AS
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN IS EXHIBITED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS. FURTHERMORE...THE SFC-BASED CAPE IS A LITTLE BETTER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY /AOA 700 J/KG/ WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25
KTS /SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/. THERE ARE SLIGHT HINTS OF A WEAKNESS OF
MID LEVEL WINDS WHICH IS EVIDENT OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINING AN
INFLUENCE. A MITIGATING FACTOR THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD AID TO
PREVENT STORMS FROM STAYING IN THE CWA FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED INDICES CAN NOT BE IGNORED WHERE AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LCL/S AOA 10KFT SUGGEST THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE GUSTY WINDS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ACROSS THE WEST AND NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAKING IT INTO THE
SERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH CHANCES STILL LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN
THE FCST ATTM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT
MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SUNDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE...FURTHER DECREASES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND NEWD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
FLANK OF THE CENTER WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MAY SEE THE DEEPER MONSOONAL EDGE
BACK TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO
MENTION ANY RAIN POTENTIAL. PATTERN SHOULD HELP THE AREA AVOID THE
EXTREME HEAT OF EARLIER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 91 63 90 65 / 20 10 10 0 0
TULIA 67 90 66 89 66 / 20 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 68 91 67 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 68 91 66 92 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 92 68 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 68 91 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 69 91 67 91 67 / 10 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 71 96 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
SPUR 70 93 71 92 71 / 0 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 71 95 70 96 72 / 0 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PRECIP ACTIVITY
WILL NEAR EITHER TERMINAL /ESPECIALLY KCDS/...AND THUS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD A MENTION ATTM. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS
NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...
UA HIGH PRESSURE MAXIMA LOCATED ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND THE
SERN CONUS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUAL WESTWARD RETROGRADING UA LOW
ACROSS SERN TEXAS...WAS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS MORNING...AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...A GENERAL WEAKNESS
IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EXIST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALBEIT STILL
WARM WITH A TEMP RANGE OF 95-101 ANTICIPATED.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OR BASICALLY EAST OF THE
UA RIDGE THAT IS ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH NORTH OF
THE REGION COMBINED WITH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...AND PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS IS NOW MOVING SSE ACROSS YOAKUM AND TERRY
COUNTIES /AT LEAST WHAT IS LEFT OF IT/. IT IS OF NOTE TO ALSO
MENTION A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
EASTERN LYNN TO NORTHEASTERN CROSBY COUNTY...COINCIDING WITH BETTER
DEWPOINTS....AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS
INDUCED ADDITIONAL LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS FLOYD AND MOTLEY COUNTIES.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LINE
OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCUMULATE A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...FOR THE MERE FACT OF TRAINING OCCURRING. THE
LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING TO THE SW ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF THE UA RIDGE/S INFLUENCE. THE RUC SOLUTION IS BEST
HANDLING THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALBEIT...A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN REGARD TO COVERAGE. HOWEVER THE RUC DOES SHOW PRECIP
DISSIPATED BY AOA 15Z AND HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SAID AREAS UNTIL 15Z.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. A SFC
TROUGH NNW OF THE FA AND A CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME WILL
LEAD TO THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION OF A REPEAT SCENARIO OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED
OFF THE CAPROCK...BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE ON THE CAPROCK...AS
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN IS EXHIBITED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS. FURTHERMORE...THE SFC-BASED CAPE IS A LITTLE BETTER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY /AOA 700 J/KG/ WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25
KTS /SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/. THERE ARE SLIGHT HINTS OF A WEAKNESS OF
MID LEVEL WINDS WHICH IS EVIDENT OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINING AN
INFLUENCE. A MITIGATING FACTOR THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD AID TO
PREVENT STORMS FROM STAYING IN THE CWA FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED INDICES CAN NOT BE IGNORED WHERE AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LCL/S AOA 10KFT SUGGEST THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE GUSTY WINDS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ACROSS THE WEST AND NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAKING IT INTO THE
SERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH CHANCES STILL LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN
THE FCST ATTM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT
MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SUNDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE...FURTHER DECREASES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND NEWD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
FLANK OF THE CENTER WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MAY SEE THE DEEPER MONSOONAL EDGE
BACK TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO
MENTION ANY RAIN POTENTIAL. PATTERN SHOULD HELP THE AREA AVOID THE
EXTREME HEAT OF EARLIER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 96 65 91 63 90 / 20 20 10 10 0
TULIA 95 67 90 66 89 / 20 20 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 95 68 91 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 96 68 91 66 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 97 69 92 68 92 / 10 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 96 68 91 66 90 / 20 10 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 97 69 91 67 91 / 20 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 100 71 96 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 10
SPUR 98 70 93 71 92 / 10 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 100 71 95 70 96 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
314 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...
UA HIGH PRESSURE MAXIMA LOCATED ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND THE
SERN CONUS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUAL WESTWARD RETROGRADING UA LOW
ACROSS SERN TEXAS...WAS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS MORNING...AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...A GENERAL WEAKNESS
IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EXIST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALBEIT STILL
WARM WITH A TEMP RANGE OF 95-101 ANTICIPATED.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OR BASICALLY EAST OF THE
UA RIDGE THAT IS ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH NORTH OF
THE REGION COMBINED WITH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...AND PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS IS NOW MOVING SSE ACROSS YOAKUM AND TERRY
COUNTIES /AT LEAST WHAT IS LEFT OF IT/. IT IS OF NOTE TO ALSO
MENTION A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
EASTERN LYNN TO NORTHEASTERN CROSBY COUNTY...COINCIDING WITH BETTER
DEWPOINTS....AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS
INDUCED ADDITIONAL LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS FLOYD AND MOTLEY COUNTIES.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LINE
OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCUMULATE A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...FOR THE MERE FACT OF TRAINING OCCURRING. THE
LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING TO THE SW ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF THE UA RIDGE/S INFLUENCE. THE RUC SOLUTION IS BEST
HANDLING THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALBEIT...A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN REGARD TO COVERAGE. HOWEVER THE RUC DOES SHOW PRECIP
DISSIPATED BY AOA 15Z AND HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SAID AREAS UNTIL 15Z.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. A SFC
TROUGH NNW OF THE FA AND A CONTINUED EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME WILL
LEAD TO THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION OF A REPEAT SCENARIO OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED
OFF THE CAPROCK...BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE ON THE CAPROCK...AS
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN IS EXHIBITED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS. FURTHERMORE...THE SFC-BASED CAPE IS A LITTLE BETTER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY /AOA 700 J/KG/ WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25
KTS /SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/. THERE ARE SLIGHT HINTS OF A WEAKNESS OF
MID LEVEL WINDS WHICH IS EVIDENT OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINING AN
INFLUENCE. A MITIGATING FACTOR THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD AID TO
PREVENT STORMS FROM STAYING IN THE CWA FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED INDICES CAN NOT BE IGNORED WHERE AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LCL/S AOA 10KFT SUGGEST THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE GUSTY WINDS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ACROSS THE WEST AND NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAKING IT INTO THE
SERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH CHANCES STILL LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN
THE FCST ATTM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT
MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SUNDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE...FURTHER DECREASES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND NEWD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
FLANK OF THE CENTER WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MAY SEE THE DEEPER MONSOONAL EDGE
BACK TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO
MENTION ANY RAIN POTENTIAL. PATTERN SHOULD HELP THE AREA AVOID THE
EXTREME HEAT OF EARLIER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 96 65 91 63 90 / 20 20 10 10 0
TULIA 95 67 90 66 89 / 20 20 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 95 68 91 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 96 68 91 66 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 97 69 92 68 92 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 68 91 66 90 / 20 10 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 97 69 91 67 91 / 20 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 100 71 96 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 10
SPUR 98 70 93 71 92 / 10 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 100 71 95 70 96 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
934 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING HEAT
WAVE...WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SPC HAS ISSUED SEVERED THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 FOR SE WV EAST INTO
THE FOOTHILLS OF VA UNTIL 2 AM. AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS
STRETCH FROM ERN OHIO SOUTH TO ERN KY AND ARE MOVING EAST AT 35 TO
45 MPH. WITH THIS SITUATION...THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENTERING SE WV
BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM. THIS SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMPLEX BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY/CAT IN THE SE WV AREA BY 11 PM SHIFTING
HIGHER POPS EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDNIGHT-2 AM. KEPT
LOWER POPS IN THE SRN CWA AS THE AIRMASS DOWN THAT WAY SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY DUE TO STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY OVERTURNINING THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
SOUTH THAT COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS.
PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMET WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH POSSIBLE MCS AND
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
SWODY2 KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. HIGH MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS BACK TO THE NE UNDER EXPANDING HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COMBO WITH A LEFTOVER LEE TROF SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH POSSIBLE MCS FEATURES AGAIN DIVING SE INTO
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO THOUGH QUITE IFFY AS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE REDUCED SOME IF OVERNIGHT STORM
CLUSTERS DROP SE. THUS WILL RUN WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE
MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES...BUT LEAVE IN SOME POPS DURING THE
NIGHT PERIODS TO COVER. OTRW MORE WARM AND MUGGY GIVEN MOISTURE
AROUND BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT ESPCLY WEST WHERE MORE COOLING VIA
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING FOR AT
LEAST LOW/MID 90S EAST AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 90S AGAIN BY THE 4TH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK 5H TROFFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO DETER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHILE MAKING FOR MORE OF A NW FLOW MCS TYPE
SCENARIO LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES DIVE SE AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWVER WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE MCS
COMPLEX ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
MAY MAKE A RUN BY SUNDAY PER LATEST GFS BUT GIVEN THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL GO CLOSER TO THE EURO AND HOLD THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE 90S EAST AND
CLOSE TO 90 OR WARMER WEST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FORECAST OVERALL WILL BE VFR BUT WILL BE DEALING AGAIN WITH
ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY.
ATTM...MODELS VARY TOO MUCH TO MAKE A CONFIDENT FORECAST. IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS THE LATEST RAP MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON THE FAST EDGE OF
THE STORMS IN OHIO/NW WV...BUT DOING THE BEST IN PLACEMENT. WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF VCTS COMING INTO LWB/BLF AT 0130Z THEN BCB/ROA BY
03Z...LASTING FOR 2-3 HRS. KEPT THE EAST FREE OF CONVECTON BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ANY STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY NW
WINDS AND THE RAP MODEL IS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD 1-2 HRS OF GUSTY
NW WINDS IN THE MTNS.
KEPT SOME MINOR FOG ISSUES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LWB BUT KEPT IT OUT ELSEWHERE.
FOR MONDAY...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE IN SOMETIME
BETWEEN DAWN AND MID AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS IT WILL BE VFR.
EXECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MONDAY- FRIDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH BROKEN TODAY JULY 1ST FOR BLF WITH 90...WHICH BREAKS
THE OLD RECORD OF 88 IN 2005.
RECORD HIGHS:
FOR MONDAY/2ND
BLACKSBURG 95/1954
BLUEFIELD 87/2011
DANVILLE 100/1954
LYNCHBURG 99/1898
ROANOKE 100/1954
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING HEAT
WAVE...WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WILL BE DROPPING HEAT ADVISORY AT 8 PM FOR THE EAST AS
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED AFTER STORMS EARLIER.
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY DECREASING POPS GIVEN
NOTHING IN OUR CWA...THEN TRYING TO TIME THE APPROACH OF THE MCS
OVER OHIO. TIMING OFF THE RADAR/SAT HAS IT GETTING INTO SE WV BY
9-11 PM.
CURRENTLY...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST THREAT OF SVR WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR CWA ACROSS CENTRAL WV...BUT MOVEMENT OF COMPLEX SUGGESTS AN SE
TURN INTO SRN WV.
PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMET WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH POSSIBLE MCS AND
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
SWODY2 KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. HIGH MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS BACK TO THE NE UNDER EXPANDING HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COMBO WITH A LEFTOVER LEE TROF SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH POSSIBLE MCS FEATURES AGAIN DIVING SE INTO
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO THOUGH QUITE IFFY AS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE REDUCED SOME IF OVERNIGHT STORM
CLUSTERS DROP SE. THUS WILL RUN WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE
MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES...BUT LEAVE IN SOME POPS DURING THE
NIGHT PERIODS TO COVER. OTRW MORE WARM AND MUGGY GIVEN MOISTURE
AROUND BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT ESPCLY WEST WHERE MORE COOLING VIA
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING FOR AT
LEAST LOW/MID 90S EAST AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 90S AGAIN BY THE 4TH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK 5H TROFFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO DETER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHILE MAKING FOR MORE OF A NW FLOW MCS TYPE
SCENARIO LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES DIVE SE AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWVER WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE MCS
COMPLEX ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
MAY MAKE A RUN BY SUNDAY PER LATEST GFS BUT GIVEN THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL GO CLOSER TO THE EURO AND HOLD THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE 90S EAST AND
CLOSE TO 90 OR WARMER WEST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FORECAST OVERALL WILL BE VFR BUT WILL BE DEALING AGAIN WITH
ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY.
ATTM...MODELS VARY TOO MUCH TO MAKE A CONFIDENT FORECAST. IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS THE LATEST RAP MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON THE FAST EDGE OF
THE STORMS IN OHIO/NW WV...BUT DOING THE BEST IN PLACEMENT. WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF VCTS COMING INTO LWB/BLF AT 0130Z THEN BCB/ROA BY
03Z...LASTING FOR 2-3 HRS. KEPT THE EAST FREE OF CONVECTON BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ANY STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY NW
WINDS AND THE RAP MODEL IS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD 1-2 HRS OF GUSTY
NW WINDS IN THE MTNS.
KEPT SOME MINOR FOG ISSUES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LWB BUT KEPT IT OUT ELSEWHERE.
FOR MONDAY...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE IN SOMETIME
BETWEEN DAWN AND MID AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS IT WILL BE VFR.
EXECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MONDAY- FRIDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH BROKEN TODAY JULY 1ST FOR BLF WITH 90...WHICH BREAKS
THE OLD RECORD OF 88 IN 2005.
RECORD HIGHS:
FOR MONDAY/2ND
BLACKSBURG 95/1954
BLUEFIELD 87/2011
DANVILLE 100/1954
LYNCHBURG 99/1898
ROANOKE 100/1954
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MN GOING OVER AN UNCAPPED REGION...AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC FRONT...AND
A WEAK IMPULSE A LOFT. SOME MESO MODELS SUGGEST PCPN COULD EXPAND
EAST OF THIS...ABOVE THE CAP...EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST
RAP WOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THAT SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HANG NORTH...OR
MOVE MORE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SO...THINK THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT YET.
WILL LOWER CHANCES A BIT TONIGHT AND MONITOR FOR TRENDS. MAY NEED
ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
PCPN THREAT IS EVEN LESS...OR ENDS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE CONTINUED HEAT
THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MET EACH DAY. ONCE AGAIN
CAVEAT WOULD BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THAT WOULD MITIGATE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT WOULD LEAD TO EASING OF THE
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITIES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CONVECTION OVER MN QUICKLY DIED OFF AFTER SUNDOWN...AND NOT MUCH
FOCUS FOR FURTHER SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL...A SFC
BOUNDARY RUNS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN WI...AND THE HRRR HINTS
THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD POP AROUND IT TOWARD MORNING. IF IT WOULD
DEVELOP...IT SHOULD STAY NORTH/EAST OF KRST/KLSE.
THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HOVER OR LIFT MORE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
ON MONDAY....REMAINING A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT. MOST MODELS
WOULD KEEP THE PCPN THREAT NORTH/EAST OF KRST/KLSE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT AS WELL AS HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING STILL DOMINATING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
U.S....WITH RIDGING COMING OFF OF THIS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FORECAST AREA LIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE EXTENSION. WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT OVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAD SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT LAST
EVENING WHEN IT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT NOW MOST OF WHAT
IS LEFT IS SOME MID CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVES BACK OVER THE
DAKOTAS...SOME SHOWERS AN STORMS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHER CONVECTION OF INTEREST IS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...
SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY INCREASE
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING UP THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. REGARDING MOISTURE...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THAT PER 00Z SOUNDINGS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. AT DVN AND OAX...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES OR 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE AROUND 2 INCHES OR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SEEN ON THE 29TH AT 00Z. THIS MIGHT BE A RESULT OF THE VARIOUS
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE ROLLED THROUGH OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS COME UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AT MPX AND
ABR...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...THUS THE CLEAR SKIES AT
BOTH LOCATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH THE FLOW DOES BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVES OVER THE DAKOTAS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 18-03Z. NOT THAT THRILLED ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE REMAIN STUCK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CLOSER TO
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...PRETTY MUCH ALL
GUIDANCE HAS TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY...INCLUDING SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
WHICH HAS BEEN TOO ACTIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. 00Z HIRES ARW RUN HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND HAS IT DIE
BEFORE IT REACHES HERE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE IT IS GOING
INTO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS TOO LOOK FAIRLY DRY AND
CAPPED AROUND 800MB. WE SHOULD SEE A LOT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
NOT AS MUCH CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY COME IN LATE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER
HEATING. 850MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 20C SOUTH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOST OF TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR...THOUGH
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY COME INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH THE
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LOOKS TO GET A BETTER PUSH EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE
TO TROUGHING CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER RIDGE IS
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH MEANS
THAT STATIONARY FRONT IS GOING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT
LEAST FOR SUNDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ON IT TO THE SOUTH. DID KEEP SOME 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SUNDAY AS A BUFFER. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING WHEN THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING ON THE 315K
SURFACE. BETTER SURGE NORTHWARD OF THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW FAST VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE 30.00Z
NAM HAVING IT REACH I-94 COMPARED TO ONLY NORTHEAST IOWA AT MOST FOR
THE 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF. THIS IS CRITICAL TO SOME DEGREE SINCE
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS LOW SINCE IT IS
HARD AT THIS POINT TO FIND ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... SYNOPTICALLY THE SCENARIO CAN FAVOR CONVECTION. FOR NOW
STAYED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT CHANCES. WITH WARMER
AIR MOVING IN...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 20C BY 18Z
SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. SIMILAR
SITUATION WITH LOWS...GIVEN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING A SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWARD SPEED OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...BY 00Z TUESDAY MOST
OF THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF A POSITION AT LEAST NEAR I-94.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TOO. IF THIS DOES NOT
COME THROUGH...700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...TOWARDS 11C OR SO BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH COULD
EFFECTIVELY CAP CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING...STILL ONLY KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
30-40 RANGE FOR MONDAY. CHANCES SHIFT NORTHEAST AND LOWER TO 20-30
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 20-23C ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. IF THE 30.00Z NAM/UKMET ARE RIGHT WITH
THE WARM AIR COMING IN...SUGGESTING 24-26C 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLE...
HIGHS COULD BE WARMER YET. ONE CONCERN WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA IS
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ACCOMPANYING IT. THESE DEWPOINTS
COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 IN VALLEY AREAS AND IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THUS...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WARM NIGHT LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 70S ARE LIKELY FOR LOWS.
IF CONVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...0-6 KM SHEAR
IS MOSTLY BELOW 30 KTS. THEREFORE...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE OVERALL
IS LOW ON CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
BUILDING HEAT AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
30.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE CURRENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST IS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE 30.00Z GFS...GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN SHOW A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS YET TO SHOW THIS
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH. GIVEN THE MODEL SPLIT...FOR NOW KEPT THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT DROP TOO FAR
SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGING. IN FACT...BY MID-DAY
THURSDAY...THE GFS...MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
HEAT SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE CAPPED
ENOUGH SUCH THAT EVEN WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE WENT WITH
A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EVEN WELL
AGREED UPON BY THE GFS WHICH AGAIN IS USUALLY TOO ACTIVE WITH QPF. A
COLD FRONT MAY START TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH WITH IT COMING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS SLOWER LIKE THE 30.00Z
ECMWF. STILL...THE FRONT COMING IN WARRANTS SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING THE HEAT...850MB TEMPS NO MATTER WHAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
LOOK TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 20C. IN FACT...22-24C ARE MORE
LIKELY...WITH THE 24C AIR COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE
TWO DAYS NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST...WITH DEFINITE
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH 100. FOR NOW RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN SUMMARY...BASICALLY
EVERYDAY IN THE LONG TERM SEES HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...POTENTIAL EXISTS EACH DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO HAVE HEAT INDICES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100...THE HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. WILL BE MENTIONING THE LONG PERIOD OF POSSIBLE HEAT IN
THE HWO. NOTE...ALSO RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A FEW 80 DEGREE LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WILL BE IN BETWEEN A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IA
INTO IL. SCATTERED VFR ALTOCUMULUS WITH BASES AOA 12KFT IS EXPECTED
AT BOTH KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT 3-5SM BR IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME
WITH LIGHT AIR FLOW AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY.
HAVE ADDED 4SM BR IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
455 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
A FEW OTHER INTERESTING NOTES REGARDING THE HEAT BEGINNING MONDAY.
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST AT LEAST 2-2.5 ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PERHAPS NEAR 3. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEWPOINTS CLOSELY AND
HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE
DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE.
ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF
CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
455 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT AS WELL AS HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING STILL DOMINATING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
U.S....WITH RIDGING COMING OFF OF THIS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FORECAST AREA LIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE EXTENSION. WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT OVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAD SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT LAST
EVENING WHEN IT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT NOW MOST OF WHAT
IS LEFT IS SOME MID CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVES BACK OVER THE
DAKOTAS...SOME SHOWERS AN STORMS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHER CONVECTION OF INTEREST IS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...
SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY INCREASE
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING UP THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. REGARDING MOISTURE...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THAT PER 00Z SOUNDINGS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. AT DVN AND OAX...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES OR 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE AROUND 2 INCHES OR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SEEN ON THE 29TH AT 00Z. THIS MIGHT BE A RESULT OF THE VARIOUS
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE ROLLED THROUGH OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS COME UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AT MPX AND
ABR...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...THUS THE CLEAR SKIES AT
BOTH LOCATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH THE FLOW DOES BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVES OVER THE DAKOTAS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 18-03Z. NOT THAT THRILLED ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE REMAIN STUCK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CLOSER TO
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...PRETTY MUCH ALL
GUIDANCE HAS TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY...INCLUDING SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
WHICH HAS BEEN TOO ACTIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. 00Z HIRES ARW RUN HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND HAS IT DIE
BEFORE IT REACHES HERE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE IT IS GOING
INTO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS TOO LOOK FAIRLY DRY AND
CAPPED AROUND 800MB. WE SHOULD SEE A LOT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
NOT AS MUCH CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY COME IN LATE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER
HEATING. 850MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 20C SOUTH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOST OF TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR...THOUGH
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY COME INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH THE
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LOOKS TO GET A BETTER PUSH EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE
TO TROUGHING CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER RIDGE IS
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH MEANS
THAT STATIONARY FRONT IS GOING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT
LEAST FOR SUNDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ON IT TO THE SOUTH. DID KEEP SOME 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SUNDAY AS A BUFFER. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING WHEN THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING ON THE 315K
SURFACE. BETTER SURGE NORTHWARD OF THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW FAST VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE 30.00Z
NAM HAVING IT REACH I-94 COMPARED TO ONLY NORTHEAST IOWA AT MOST FOR
THE 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF. THIS IS CRITICAL TO SOME DEGREE SINCE
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS LOW SINCE IT IS
HARD AT THIS POINT TO FIND ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... SYNOPTICALLY THE SCENARIO CAN FAVOR CONVECTION. FOR NOW
STAYED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT CHANCES. WITH WARMER
AIR MOVING IN...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 20C BY 18Z
SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. SIMILAR
SITUATION WITH LOWS...GIVEN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING A SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWARD SPEED OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...BY 00Z TUESDAY MOST
OF THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF A POSITION AT LEAST NEAR I-94.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TOO. IF THIS DOES NOT
COME THROUGH...700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...TOWARDS 11C OR SO BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH COULD
EFFECTIVELY CAP CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING...STILL ONLY KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
30-40 RANGE FOR MONDAY. CHANCES SHIFT NORTHEAST AND LOWER TO 20-30
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 20-23C ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. IF THE 30.00Z NAM/UKMET ARE RIGHT WITH
THE WARM AIR COMING IN...SUGGESTING 24-26C 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLE...
HIGHS COULD BE WARMER YET. ONE CONCERN WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA IS
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ACCOMPANYING IT. THESE DEWPOINTS
COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 IN VALLEY AREAS AND IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THUS...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WARM NIGHT LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 70S ARE LIKELY FOR LOWS.
IF CONVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...0-6 KM SHEAR
IS MOSTLY BELOW 30 KTS. THEREFORE...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE OVERALL
IS LOW ON CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
BUILDING HEAT AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
30.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE CURRENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST IS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE 30.00Z GFS...GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN SHOW A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS YET TO SHOW THIS
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH. GIVEN THE MODEL SPLIT...FOR NOW KEPT THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT DROP TOO FAR
SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGING. IN FACT...BY MID-DAY
THURSDAY...THE GFS...MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
HEAT SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE CAPPED
ENOUGH SUCH THAT EVEN WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE WENT WITH
A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EVEN WELL
AGREED UPON BY THE GFS WHICH AGAIN IS USUALLY TOO ACTIVE WITH QPF. A
COLD FRONT MAY START TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH WITH IT COMING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS SLOWER LIKE THE 30.00Z
ECMWF. STILL...THE FRONT COMING IN WARRANTS SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING THE HEAT...850MB TEMPS NO MATTER WHAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
LOOK TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 20C. IN FACT...22-24C ARE MORE
LIKELY...WITH THE 24C AIR COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE
TWO DAYS NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST...WITH DEFINITE
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH 100. FOR NOW RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN SUMMARY...BASICALLY
EVERYDAY IN THE LONG TERM SEES HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...POTENTIAL EXISTS EACH DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO HAVE HEAT INDICES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100...THE HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. WILL BE MENTIONING THE LONG PERIOD OF POSSIBLE HEAT IN
THE HWO. NOTE...ALSO RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A FEW 80 DEGREE LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SFC FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN ILL...AIDED BY A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST...AVOIDING THE TAF SITES.
MEANWHILE OVER SD/SOUTHWEST MN...SHRA/TS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP...PRESSING SOUTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS CONVECTION...AND
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT...TOWARD THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM
THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR EAST OF IT. LATEST RAP AND 18Z NAM12 FAVOR
THIS TOO. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TAFS
OVERNIGHT.
SO...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR KRST/KLSE...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
455 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
A FEW OTHER INTERESTING NOTES REGARDING THE HEAT BEGINNING MONDAY.
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST AT LEAST 2-2.5 ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PERHAPS NEAR 3. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEWPOINTS CLOSELY AND
HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE
DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE.
ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF
CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT AS WELL AS HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING STILL DOMINATING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
U.S....WITH RIDGING COMING OFF OF THIS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FORECAST AREA LIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE EXTENSION. WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT OVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS BACK OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAD SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT LAST
EVENING WHEN IT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT NOW MOST OF WHAT
IS LEFT IS SOME MID CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVES BACK OVER THE
DAKOTAS...SOME SHOWERS AN STORMS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHER CONVECTION OF INTEREST IS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...
SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY INCREASE
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING UP THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. REGARDING MOISTURE...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THAT PER 00Z SOUNDINGS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. AT DVN AND OAX...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES OR 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE AROUND 2 INCHES OR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SEEN ON THE 29TH AT 00Z. THIS MIGHT BE A RESULT OF THE VARIOUS
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE ROLLED THROUGH OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS COME UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AT MPX AND
ABR...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...THUS THE CLEAR SKIES AT
BOTH LOCATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH THE FLOW DOES BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVES OVER THE DAKOTAS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 18-03Z. NOT THAT THRILLED ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE REMAIN STUCK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CLOSER TO
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...PRETTY MUCH ALL
GUIDANCE HAS TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY...INCLUDING SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
WHICH HAS BEEN TOO ACTIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. 00Z HIRES ARW RUN HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND HAS IT DIE
BEFORE IT REACHES HERE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE IT IS GOING
INTO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS TOO LOOK FAIRLY DRY AND
CAPPED AROUND 800MB. WE SHOULD SEE A LOT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
NOT AS MUCH CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF. SOME MID CLOUDS MAY COME IN LATE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER
HEATING. 850MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 20C SOUTH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOST OF TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR...THOUGH
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY COME INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH THE
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LOOKS TO GET A BETTER PUSH EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE
TO TROUGHING CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER RIDGE IS
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH MEANS
THAT STATIONARY FRONT IS GOING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT
LEAST FOR SUNDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ON IT TO THE SOUTH. DID KEEP SOME 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SUNDAY AS A BUFFER. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING WHEN THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING ON THE 315K
SURFACE. BETTER SURGE NORTHWARD OF THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW FAST VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE 30.00Z
NAM HAVING IT REACH I-94 COMPARED TO ONLY NORTHEAST IOWA AT MOST FOR
THE 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF. THIS IS CRITICAL TO SOME DEGREE SINCE
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS LOW SINCE IT IS
HARD AT THIS POINT TO FIND ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... SYNOPTICALLY THE SCENARIO CAN FAVOR CONVECTION. FOR NOW
STAYED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 20 PERCENT CHANCES. WITH WARMER
AIR MOVING IN...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 20C BY 18Z
SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. SIMILAR
SITUATION WITH LOWS...GIVEN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING A SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWARD SPEED OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...BY 00Z TUESDAY MOST
OF THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF A POSITION AT LEAST NEAR I-94.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TOO. IF THIS DOES NOT
COME THROUGH...700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...TOWARDS 11C OR SO BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH COULD
EFFECTIVELY CAP CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING...STILL ONLY KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
30-40 RANGE FOR MONDAY. CHANCES SHIFT NORTHEAST AND LOWER TO 20-30
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 20-23C ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. IF THE 30.00Z NAM/UKMET ARE RIGHT WITH
THE WARM AIR COMING IN...SUGGESTING 24-26C 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLE...
HIGHS COULD BE WARMER YET. ONE CONCERN WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA IS
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ACCOMPANYING IT. THESE DEWPOINTS
COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 IN VALLEY AREAS AND IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THUS...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WARM NIGHT LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 70S ARE LIKELY FOR LOWS.
IF CONVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...0-6 KM SHEAR
IS MOSTLY BELOW 30 KTS. THEREFORE...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE OVERALL
IS LOW ON CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
BUILDING HEAT AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
30.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE CURRENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST IS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE 30.00Z GFS...GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN SHOW A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS YET TO SHOW THIS
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH. GIVEN THE MODEL SPLIT...FOR NOW KEPT THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT DROP TOO FAR
SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGING. IN FACT...BY MID-DAY
THURSDAY...THE GFS...MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
HEAT SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE CAPPED
ENOUGH SUCH THAT EVEN WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE WENT WITH
A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EVEN WELL
AGREED UPON BY THE GFS WHICH AGAIN IS USUALLY TOO ACTIVE WITH QPF. A
COLD FRONT MAY START TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH WITH IT COMING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS SLOWER LIKE THE 30.00Z
ECMWF. STILL...THE FRONT COMING IN WARRANTS SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING THE HEAT...850MB TEMPS NO MATTER WHAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
LOOK TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 20C. IN FACT...22-24C ARE MORE
LIKELY...WITH THE 24C AIR COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE
TWO DAYS NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST...WITH DEFINITE
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH 100. FOR NOW RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN SUMMARY...BASICALLY
EVERYDAY IN THE LONG TERM SEES HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...POTENTIAL EXISTS EACH DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO HAVE HEAT INDICES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100...THE HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. WILL BE MENTIONING THE LONG PERIOD OF POSSIBLE HEAT IN
THE HWO. NOTE...ALSO RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A FEW 80 DEGREE LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SFC FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN ILL...AIDED BY A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST...AVOIDING THE TAF SITES.
MEANWHILE OVER SD/SOUTHWEST MN...SHRA/TS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP...PRESSING SOUTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS CONVECTION...AND
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT...TOWARD THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM
THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR EAST OF IT. LATEST RAP AND 18Z NAM12 FAVOR
THIS TOO. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TAFS
OVERNIGHT.
SO...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR KRST/KLSE...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND HEAT
AGAIN ON MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH. HRRR FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
EARLIER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE WRF AND NAM SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER AFTER WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AGAIN. WHILE SPC HAD
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY... ONLY THE FAR EAST
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTED MONDAY... HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS... WHILE TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED... GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
TRENDS. MONDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE THE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY... DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WILL STILL WARRANT AT
LEAST THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REACH HEAT
INDICES OF 110-113 DEGREES THEREFORE A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
SOME RELIEF HERE AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE
STATE WILL BREAK DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WILL NOT QUITE GET INTO THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES
WHILE IN THIS PATTERN BUT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT MEANDER THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURS. EVEN WITHOUT FRONT...ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESP AS MEAN RH
INCREASES ON THURS. PREV FCST NO TOO FAR OFF. DID INCREASE MAX
TEMPS A LITTLE ON TUES AND WED AS CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PULLING DOWN
GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE TOO MUCH. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REMAIN A
PROBLEM ON TUES IF DEW POINTS DONT MIX OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED. HAVENT FORGOTTEN
ABOUT THE TROPICS EITHER. ATLANTIC BASIN LOOKS QUIET PER THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...SOME ACTION LIKELY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT HERE.
SNELSON
FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTH
AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. THE LOWEST RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY 10 MPH OR LESS...THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OR
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MONDAY.
BAKER
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA AROUND MCN AND AHN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK BETTER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 TSRA AT ALL SITES...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES ARE FOR MCN...CSG
AND AHN. ALTHOUGH PROB30 GOES UNTIL 02/03Z...COULD SEE TSRA LAST
LONGER THAN THAT. WITH OUTFLOW FROM TSRA...WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN
VRB. ALTHOUGH ATL SITES AND AHN HAVE SWITCHED TO EAST
WINDS...SHOULD SEE GENERAL FLOW SWITCH BACK TO WESTERLY FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD AGAIN
PRODUCE VRB WIND. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIMITED TO TSRA...BUT CANT
RULE OUT 5SM OR 6SM AROUND SUNRISE OUTSIDE OF TSRA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER TSRA WILL FORM DIRECTLY AT THE AIRPORT
TODAY.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 102 72 99 72 / 20 20 30 20
ATLANTA 99 75 95 75 / 20 20 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 93 67 91 66 / 20 20 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 100 70 96 69 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 100 75 96 76 / 30 30 30 20
GAINESVILLE 99 73 96 73 / 20 20 30 20
MACON 101 73 97 73 / 30 30 30 20
ROME 103 70 98 69 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 98 71 96 69 / 20 20 30 20
VIDALIA 99 78 96 76 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...
DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT INCREASING POPS AND QPF ALONG A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH. DID THIS THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTATION OF ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MORE OF THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
EASTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12KTS WILL INCREASE
BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS. HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS BLOWOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXERTS STRONG INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS AGREE THAT A SUB-CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA...ENSURING
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP HEAT STRESS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES..A DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY COULD
HELP TO SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOR RENEWED CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND HAVE EDGED MAV MOS POPS
UPWARD A BIT TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MICROBURSTS. WITH DCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 1500 J/KG...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILTY OF A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SE OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVEVING IS A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A POCKET OF GREATER SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER/STABLE AIR MIGRATING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER TSTM CHANCES EXIST ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR FOR TUES
AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION PLAYS OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED HOT SFC TEMPS
AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY
AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO MENTION IN THE HWO YET. /EC/
.LONG TERM...RATHER HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT AT LEAST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE (WITH HIGHS SHY OF THE
CENTURY MARK). ANOTHER PLUS IS THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY RETURN TO AVERAGE MID-SUMMER LEVELS BY THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK AND GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC UPPER LEVELS LOOKS
TO STILL BE PLAGUING MOST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DEEP RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL BE HEADED DOWN
OUR DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST. IT IS THIS EVOLUTION THAT WILL
HELP INCREASE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE
AREA...INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAT AND DRYNESS FROM THE RIDGING
INFLUENCE MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO LONGER TO BREAK IN THE NORTHWEST
ARKLAMISS DELTA...BUT IT EVENTUALLY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR EVEN THERE.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT SETUP ADVERTISED BY MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR) COULD GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN ON 1 OR 2
DAYS OVER THE COURSE OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY PERIOD. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT FEATURES MODELS ARE PREDICTING ARE SOMEWHAT SUBTLE
AND DETAILS WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS (WHICH ARE
UNPREDICTABLE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME). FOR THAT REASON I STUCK PRETTY
CLOSE TO MEXMOS POPS OVER THE LONG TERM (AND EVEN CUT BACK SOME VERY
AGGRESSIVE NUMBERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY).
BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL AN ACTUAL
COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO HERE AS THE NASTY RIDGE ALOFT
RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST. THAT WOULD SPELL TEMPERATURES COOLING
DOWN A BIT MORE WITH EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES...AND MOST WOULD
PROBABLY RANK THOSE AS POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS. BUT GIVEN THAT
EVOLUTION WOULD BE 7 OR 8 DAYS FROM NOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHING FOR SOME POTENT AFTERNOON
STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE TO POSE AT LEAST A
MICROBURST RISK FROM PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...FAIRLY TYPICAL HOT/HAZY AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WHERE HAZE REDUCES VISIBILITY. EARLY MORNING FOG ADDED TO THE MIX IS
RESULTING INTO LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR VSBY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MIX
OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IT APPEARS THE BEST TSTM CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTN/EVNG WILL BE FOR ERN MS AND THE GTR/MEI/HBG CORRIDOR...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS JAN/GWO. BUT A STRAY TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ANY LOCATION IN THE HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. /EC/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
SINCE SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE ARKLAMISS ARE UNDER BURN BANS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH AND
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. HOT
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 96 72 97 71 / 20 13 18 17
MERIDIAN 98 70 96 68 / 33 28 22 23
VICKSBURG 96 70 95 69 / 13 11 12 13
HATTIESBURG 98 72 97 72 / 34 22 23 23
NATCHEZ 94 72 94 71 / 15 16 13 13
GREENVILLE 97 72 96 73 / 11 8 9 11
GREENWOOD 97 69 95 71 / 14 10 9 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short Range (Tonight through Tuesday)...
MCV left over from last nights convection over western KS has
sparked isolated storms over central KS. MCV is moving slowly east
under a weak steering flow less than 15kts. While the system is
working into a more unstable airmass will likely need the
development of a good sized cold pool to send any additional
activity into the western CWA. 18Z NAM and latest HRRR provide
enough incentive to mention slight chance pops into the evening
hours for far western counties. Rest of CWA should be quiet
overnight.
For the past several days models have forecast "cooler" temperatures
for the CWA. This is mainly the result of deeper tropical air now
over TX advecting slowly north and cooling temperatures up through
the mid levels. But with the somewhat cooler temperatures spells an
increase in dewpoints/humidity levels so not a good trade off. There
are some signals that warrant adding slight chance pops to the
southern CWA for late Monday afternoon/evening as a couple of weak
vorticity lobes/shortwaves may lift through the CWA. Combination of
steep lapse rates and pockets of deeper moisture around h7 per BUFR
soundings provide the background for pulse type convection
initiating during peak heating and hanging around till mid evening.
Gusty winds and small hail certainly possible. Have not strayed too
far form previous temperature forecast. Heat Index values not high
enough to warrant any advisory.
Slightly warmer air expected to drift back into the CWA on Tuesday
as the deeper tropical plume of moisture/cooler temperatures aloft
peels eastward. Heat Index values crank back into the 100-106 range.
And the drought continues with nearly zero chance of rain.
MJ
Wednesday - Sunday:
Models remain in very good agreement through the extended depicting
the upper ridge expanding and strengthening through the week across
the central CONUS. So the extended range forecast continues to look
hot with little, if any, chance of any organized area of
precipitation. So have kept the entire period dry with temperatures
around 100 degrees for most locations. There may be days that are a
bit warmer and cooler but all in all afternoon highs will be
flirting with the century mark day after day through Sunday. The
later part of the week looks warmer for the entire area as greater
thickness values spread eastward and drape themselves across the
area. But still think highs will be in the 100 to 102 range.
If there is one positive about this heat wave it is that dewpoints
haven`t been extreme. This is most likely due to the drought and the
overall lack of evapotranspiration. But with dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s, the heat has not been as bad as in years past. This has
kept heat index values lower but we`re still expecting heat index
values to range from 100 to 104 through the extended. This is below
advisory levels for any given day. But with this heat being
prolonged, and in the 100 to 104 range, an advisory may be needed
through the end of the week as the cumulative effects of the heat
continue to mount.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
as persistant upper level ridge over the central US will allow for
continued dry weather. Southerly surface winds and some scattered
high level cloudiness can be expected during this forecast cycle.
MJM
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
209 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE A HEAT
ADVISORY IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY SOUTHERN EXTENT TO THIS ACTIVITY. SPC IS MONITORING FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA FORMING NEAR GLENDIVE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SEEM TO BE ON TARGET WITH THIS IDEA.
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND SHOULD
BE NEAR A CARRINGTON TO ASHLEY LINE BY 00Z TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT PER SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL BE
INFLUENCED THE MOST IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
THUS A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAMOURE/DICKEY/AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DWINDLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY A DRY MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WEST. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN SLOPE/BOWMAN
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDICES ARE FORECAST WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK WITH THE MOST CURRENT DATA TODAY BEFORE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH
THE AT LEAST MID WEEK. MODELS DIFFER LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SETTING UP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH MONTANA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BRING CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE REMAINING
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHUNT CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH DUE TO CAPPING.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A LARGE PART IN WHERE CONVECTION EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL LEAN TOWARD AN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION
HERE AS A RING OF FIRE PATTERN DEVELOPS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE GFS SUPPRESSES CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE
KEEPS CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. THINK THE GFS MAY BE TOO FAR
SOUTH.
BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT...BUT STILL KEEPS
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE LOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATE
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THIS SETUP...WE
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...OF ALL THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THEN CURRENT CONVECTION PER LOCAL AND
REGIONAL RADAR...AND WILL FOLLOW. ONE STRONG CELL IN EASTERN ADAMS
COUNTY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN SIOUX COUNTY
BY 0730Z. THE RADAR TEAM CONTINUES TO WATCH THIS STORM CLOSELY. THE
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE HRRR MODEL...THIS AREA WORKS INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/WILLISTON AREA...BY 08Z AND THEN SPREADS EAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z MONDAY.
COORDINATED WITH SPC AND WILL LET THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EXPIRE AT 05Z...THEN WATCH THE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND IF ANOTHER WATCH IS NEEDED WE WILL COORDINATE ONE.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WILL CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING AS
HUMIDITIES HAVE RECOVERED AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT OUT SOON.
A QUICK LOOK AHEAD INTO MONDAY...WILL NEED TO ASSESS A POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND ALSO LOOK AT
WHERE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
KBIS AND KJMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY DAYTIME. MOST IF NOT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN ND/WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION....NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1216 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING HEAT
WAVE...WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1205 AM EDT MONDAY...
SVR TSTM WATCH 452 HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER OUR NC COUNTIES AND
EAST TO PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VA.
POPS ARE INCREASED AS LINE OF STORMS SHIFTS EAST AT 40-50
MPH...AND THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH 4 AM.
PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMET WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH POSSIBLE MCS AND
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
SWODY2 KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. HIGH MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS BACK TO THE NE UNDER EXPANDING HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COMBO WITH A LEFTOVER LEE TROF SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH POSSIBLE MCS FEATURES AGAIN DIVING SE INTO
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO THOUGH QUITE IFFY AS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE REDUCED SOME IF OVERNIGHT STORM
CLUSTERS DROP SE. THUS WILL RUN WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE
MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES...BUT LEAVE IN SOME POPS DURING THE
NIGHT PERIODS TO COVER. OTRW MORE WARM AND MUGGY GIVEN MOISTURE
AROUND BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT ESPCLY WEST WHERE MORE COOLING VIA
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING FOR AT
LEAST LOW/MID 90S EAST AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 90S AGAIN BY THE 4TH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK 5H TROFFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO DETER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHILE MAKING FOR MORE OF A NW FLOW MCS TYPE
SCENARIO LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES DIVE SE AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWVER WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE MCS
COMPLEX ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
MAY MAKE A RUN BY SUNDAY PER LATEST GFS BUT GIVEN THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL GO CLOSER TO THE EURO AND HOLD THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE 90S EAST AND
CLOSE TO 90 OR WARMER WEST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FORECAST OVERALL WILL BE VFR BUT WILL BE DEALING AGAIN WITH
ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY.
ATTM...MODELS VARY TOO MUCH TO MAKE A CONFIDENT FORECAST. IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS THE LATEST RAP MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON THE FAST EDGE OF
THE STORMS IN OHIO/NW WV...BUT DOING THE BEST IN PLACEMENT. WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF VCTS COMING INTO LWB/BLF AT 0130Z THEN BCB/ROA BY
03Z...LASTING FOR 2-3 HRS. KEPT THE EAST FREE OF CONVECTON BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ANY STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY NW
WINDS AND THE RAP MODEL IS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD 1-2 HRS OF GUSTY
NW WINDS IN THE MTNS.
KEPT SOME MINOR FOG ISSUES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LWB BUT KEPT IT OUT ELSEWHERE.
FOR MONDAY...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE IN SOMETIME
BETWEEN DAWN AND MID AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS IT WILL BE VFR.
EXECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MONDAY- FRIDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH BROKEN TODAY JULY 1ST FOR BLF WITH 90...WHICH BREAKS
THE OLD RECORD OF 88 IN 2005.
RECORD HIGHS:
FOR MONDAY/2ND
BLACKSBURG 95/1954
BLUEFIELD 87/2011
DANVILLE 100/1954
LYNCHBURG 99/1898
ROANOKE 100/1954
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
357 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY
356 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO MADISON.
THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE THIS FRONT IS GENERALLY SOUTH WITH DEW
POINTS RANGING AROUND 70. MEANWHILE THE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
ARE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. WITH LIMITED 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND
LITTLE FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...THE BOTH THE
MESO MODELS AND BROADER SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE WARM
FRONT. THIS MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT IMPINGING
ON THE WARM FRONT AND THE MODELS SHOWING THAT THE CAP ALOFT WILL
BE WEAKER IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS.
WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...
DECIDED TO JOIN MPX AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TOO.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND
THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB JET. THE CORFIDI VECTORS DO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE JET THINKING THAT THIS
SCENARIO HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING...SO ONLY HAVE A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH A STRONG CAP ALOFT AND LITTLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
IT...PREFER THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF DRIER SOLUTIONS OVER THE MUCH
WETTER GFS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...ONLY INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...THERE WILL BE NO BREAK IN THE HEAT.
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS
FRONT. DUE TO THIS...JUST INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
356 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEFORE
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE 90S. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT THE ABNORMALLY DRY
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ON THE DEW POINTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB EVEN MORE. MEANWHILE IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR
AND THE DEW POINTS REMAIN AROUND 70...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT
BE AS HIGH. THE HEAT INDICES WOULD LIKELY BE THE SAME IN EITHER
SITUATION. AS THIS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES...IT WILL TAX THE BODIES OF
YOUNG CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY...AND THOSE WHO ARE SICK EVEN MORE. WE
MAY EVENTUALLY END UP GOING WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO
HANDLE ITS DURATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CONVECTION OVER MN QUICKLY DIED OFF AFTER SUNDOWN...AND NOT MUCH
FOCUS FOR FURTHER SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STILL...A SFC
BOUNDARY RUNS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN WI...AND THE HRRR HINTS
THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD POP AROUND IT TOWARD MORNING. IF IT WOULD
DEVELOP...IT SHOULD STAY NORTH/EAST OF KRST/KLSE.
THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HOVER OR LIFT MORE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
ON MONDAY....REMAINING A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT. MOST MODELS
WOULD KEEP THE PCPN THREAT NORTH/EAST OF KRST/KLSE BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
COULD RESULT IN DAILY LOSSES OF 0.35 TO 0.40 INCH FROM THE SOILS.
IN ADDITION...THE CORN CROP COULD BE USING A 0.25 TO 0.30 OF AN
INCH PER DAY. THIS IS ITS HIGHEST USAGE FOR ITS LIFE CYCLE. RAIN
IS CRITICAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SINCE THIS IS WHEN IT WILL BE
CREATING ITS EARS.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE
NEAR THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
RECORD HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON
THE 4TH WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
303 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ032-033-041-053>055-061.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
A SLOWLY MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRONGER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TUESDAY AND RESULT IN
HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
I INCREASED POP TO 30 PCT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
SINCE THE LATEST NAM12 AND RAP SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY OVER THE SE CWA AFTER 18Z COUPLED WITH INCREASED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA.
MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT THROUGH IS THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THAT SHOWS A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
IS DECENT LIFT IN THE DGZ DUE TO THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BETTER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT... SEEMS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW. NOT
ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR FOR STRONG STORMS BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS... I
COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THINGS ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE ACTIVE LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.
* BEST CHANCE OF STORMS: TODAY MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
TUESDAY AFTER 18Z
* SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS TUESDAY NORTH OF A HART TO CLARE LINE.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
WISCONSIN SEWD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FROM NEAR MKG TO OZW. THIS
BOUNDARY IS SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
WISCONSIN ACROSS SRN LWR. AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO
AROUND 7C/KM...SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP. SHEAR IS PRETTY LOW SO SVR
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE...THE TSRA THREAT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO HAVE A
SHORT WAVE FOR UPPER SUPPORT. THE TROUGH AND WAVE ARE PROGD TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AT MAX HEATING. INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRETTY HIGH WITH LI/S NEAR -6C. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR WILL
BE HIGHER...35-45KTS. THUS STRONG TO PERHAPS SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE FAR NRN CWA...ESSENTIALLY NORTH OF A
HART TO CLARE LINE...IN A SLGHT RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
POPS WILL DECREASE FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING EWD. NO COOL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH AS HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND THAT STARTS SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMES WITH THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY... IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE MOST OF THE AREAS WILL SEE SOME VERY MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE STORM WILL BE ANYTHING MORE
THEN GENERIC THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR IS LESS THAN
MARGINAL....THE 1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS NOR THE LOW
LEVEL JET ARE AIMED AT THIS AREA ON SATURDAY EITHER. EVEN SO THERE
IS DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT...THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAP IS NEAR 1500 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MEAN 850 TO
700 RH IS OVER 80 PCT NEAR THE FRONT...AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES (DOUBLE NORMAL). SO IT WOULD SEEM
TO ME WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS EVEN SO BUT THE STORMS WOULD
MORE THAN LIKELY NO BE SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
FAST ENOUGH THAT LAGER SCALE FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
BUT SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER MAY WELL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAYBE SATURDAY TOO IF THE CONVECTION ON THE FRONT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER TO GET HERE. MY 1000/850 THICKNESS NUMBERS FROM THE ECMWF
ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGHS BETWEEN 95 AND 100 ALL THREE DAYS.
ALSO MY 1000/925 THICKNESS VALUES GIVE ME SIMILAR NUMBERS. WE MAY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE DAYS DEPENDING JUST WHAT THE DEW
POINTS END UP BEING. WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT... SATURDAY MAY BE THE DAY WE WOULD MORE LIKELY SEE THAT SORT
OF HEADLINE.
AS FOR OVERALL PATTERN...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS ENTIRE EVENT. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS PATTERN.
THE HEAT DOME WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE
TROUGHS OFF BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
TOO. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA HELPS TO BUILD THE
UPPER RIDGE MID WEEK BEFORE IT GETS EJECTED BY A YET STRONGER
PACIFIC SYSTEM (FROM NORTHERN RUSSIA) THAT BOOTS IT ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH HERE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHERN RUSSIA DEEPENS AND
MASSIVELY CLOSES OFF AT UPPER LEVELS SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN THE
PAST FEW STORMS SO THAT FORCES THE ENTIRE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO
RETROGRADE. THAT IN TURN IS WHY SOME COOLING SEEMS LIKELY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND (RETROGRADING THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN BACK WITHIN THE POLAR JET AND THUS COOLER AIR).
SO HOT AND DRY THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.. THEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
THE FOG AT AZO AND JXN SHOULD BE GONE BY 9 AM. AFTER THAT LARGELY
VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE OVER
MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD TOUCH OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER WI
THIS LATER TODAY AND THAT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. SINCE I WAS NOT SURE ON COVERAGE I PUT VCTS FOR NOW AND
WE CAN UPDATE THIS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY TOO.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1013 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1013 AM...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE TROUGH
BISECTING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY A
REMNANT OF OVERNIGHT DEEP CONVECTION BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE REFLECTION
OF LOWER PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A MODESTLY-STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SWEEPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE
REFLECTION OF WHAT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY IN THE
MID LEVELS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER IN THE TROUGH...ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRENDING
SLIGHTLY COOLER ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS GREATEST IN VICINITY OF THE WAVE TO THE NORTH...AND EARLY
MORNING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...WHERE THE MSAS SHOWED LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW AS -4C AT 13Z.
MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE...AND FACTORING IN THE LOCATIONS OF
THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHS...THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
THEIR EXPECTED TRENDS...AND WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...IT APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
SHOULD BE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS.
THE LATEST NAM FORECAST DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF
KCLT AND KAFP THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING EAST AND THEN PROPAGATING
SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA OVER TIME. THE LATEST RAP IS SIMILAR...
JUST FARTHER WEST INITIALLY. HAVE OPTED TO LESSEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT...MAINTAINING SOLID CHANCES AND SCATTERED
WORDING FROM ROUGHLY KAFP THROUGH KFAY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
NAM ALSO FORECAST THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA...
SHIFTING SOUTH OVER TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
LIMITED HEATING IN MOST AREAS TO START THE DAY...BUT EVEN WITH THIS
WRITING BEING JUST AFTER 9 AM SUN-TIME...WILL NOT MODIFY
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. THE RAP WAS BETTER IN ITS DEPICTION OF
MORNING 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...SEVERAL METERS LOWER THAN THE NAM...
BUT EVEN ITS LATE AFTERNOON VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. OPTED TO SHAVE A DEGREE OFF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAXES...BUT
THIS STILL YIELDS SOME HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING
105F PARTICULARLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE SANDHILLS.
BASED ON THIS...AS WELL AS THE IMPACT OF THE CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL ENERGY PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
SOME DRYING ABOVE 15000 FEET. RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES 70 TO 75 WITH SOME UPPER
60S WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY COOL THE
ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM ...
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY MORNING AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISING
TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND SOME SOMEWHAT COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES... ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS
TO INTERFERE WITH INSOLATION AND AN EARLY AFTERNOON START TO
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT MOST HIGHS TO THE MID 90S... WITH SOME
LOCATIONS PERHAPS FALLING SHORT OF THAT WITH CONVECTION. LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION
OF A S/W TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WED-THU. THIS SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED MOIST
AXIS ALOFT...ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WED AND
THU. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE CAROLINAS/VA FRI-SUN...WHICH
SHOULD BOTH WARM TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 90S (94 TO 99) AND
DIMINISH CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NC...BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1013 AM...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO
TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS. SOME GUSTY WINDS...MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
347 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
343 PM CDT
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
WELL AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
DESPITE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THUS LIMITING HEAT INDEX VALUES AND KEEPING ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CU
FIELD REALLY BUBBLING UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
WEAK/MODERATE CONVERGENCE IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO
LINGERING BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BETTER
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD CAN BE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AS SLIGHTLY BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT NOTED WITH SOUTHERN PROPAGATION
OF A MID LEVEL WAVE. AS THIS WEAK WAVE SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND ENCOUNTERS THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...AN ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT DOES
REMAIN. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED ARE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
FEATURE CAN BE NOTED IN THIS VICINITY AND WITH A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY MOVE NORTHWARD. OVERALL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
CONTINUES TO REMAIN RATHER LOW...SO ONCE AGAIN ANY SEVERE THREAT
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
AFTER ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...IT DOES
APPEAR AS IF THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF ANOTHER MCS
COMPLEX SHOULD RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HAVE CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WITH STEERING FLOW KEEPING ANY MID LEVEL FEATURES
WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
LIFTING NORTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. ALSO...SHOULD BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN A MORE SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH QUESTIONS STILL IN PLACE IN
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. CURRENT 12Z
GUIDANCE IN DISAGREEMENT HANDLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD
DROP SOUTH DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN/LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE LATEST NAM/SREF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL INDICATING A FULL
PUSH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL INDICATING THAT THIS
FRONT MIGHT WASH OUT TO THE NORTH BEFORE IT MAKES IT SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HANDLING
THIS BOUNDARY AS THEY ARE ALL INDICATING LIKELY
POSSIBILITIES...WITH A LIKELY SCENARIO FALLING OUT OF THIS BASED
ON WHAT EACH MODEL IS INDICATING. EACH MODEL DOES DEPICT THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE NAM CONTINUING IF FURTHER
SOUTH. LOOKING ALOFT AT EACH MODEL...DURING THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME WE BEGIN TO SEE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
BACKING AND INCREASING. THIS IS GOING TO ACT TO HELP BRING A
RETURN OF ANOTHER PUSH OF THIS WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND THE WESTERLIES
TAKING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHOULD ALSO SEE A
RESPONSE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN TO MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION. IN ALL HELPING TO WASH OUT THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...WHAT I DO FORESEE HAPPENING IS WITH THE
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...WINDS STILL VEERING TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKE AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST
INDIANA LIKE THE NAM IS INDICATING. I JUST DONT THINK THE NAM IS
FULLY CORRECT IN TAKING THIS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA. WITH THIS TURNING OF THE WIND
FIELD...DECENT CONVERGENCE COULD BE REALIZED AND IF THE NAM IS
ALSO CORRECT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN
COULD BE IN PLACE. SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS OVER THE WEEK STILL APPEAR TO BE RATHER WARM THIS WEEK.
TODAY...TEMPERATURES ROSE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OBSERVING MID TO UPPER 90S. DESPITE AN
AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA...MOST AREAS
HAVE OBSERVED DAYTIME MIXING WITH THESE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE 60S. SO DESPITE THESE 90S TEMPS IN PLACE...MOST AREAS TODAY
DID NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TOO MUCH ABOVE 100. WITH THE
LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH COOK
COUNTY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEVER REACHED 100. AS MAIN THERMAL AXIS
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT STAYING JUST TO THE
NORTH...HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INCLUDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS THE LAKE BREEZE AT BAY. ALTHOUGH...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL
LIMIT HUMIDITY ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO ONLY TOP OFF
IN THE UPPER 60S BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE
WARMER TEMPS...ONLY AM GETTING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105
MARK FOR A PERIOD ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS ALL AREAS UNDER HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AM EXPECTING A RISE IN BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
COME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ALSO
INCREASING BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
COOLING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE RELIEF COMES BY SUNDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY FORECAST IN THE 80S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
*POTENTIAL OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
*POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AT/VICINITY TERMINALS DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO MAKE MORE STEADY PROGRESS INLAND.
RECENT MOVEMENT HAS TIME OF ARRIVAL AT 22Z FOR BOTH ORD AND MDW.
16Z RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND HAS THE BOUNDARY PASSING BY
BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON
INTO FIRST PART OF EVENING AS LAKE BREEZE CAUSES LOCALIZED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP MOVES FROM SW WI OVER N CENTRAL AND FAE NE IL. SO FAR...
MINIMAL CU ENHANCEMENT SO FAR WITH ONLY A FEW MODERATE CU FROM WI
STATE LINE NORTHWARD.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AT MIDDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL AND SE MN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI TO EXTREME NE CORNER OF IL AND FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MI. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH
WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF TS TO THE N-NE OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS.
A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPED DURING THE LATER MORNING AND STARTED TO
PUSH INLAND BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS HAS RETREATED BACK
TOWARD THE SHORELINE S OF THE CHI LOOP AND HAS WAVERED BACK AND
FORTH N OF THE LOOP. FOURTEEN N IN LAKE CO THE LAKE BREEZE HAS
BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND BEING HELPED BY THE WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT.
STEADY PUSH INLAND ACROSS LAKE CO N INTO FAR SE WI EXPECTED...
WITH IT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH LATE AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS
AT THIS TIME IS ~22Z.
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOCALIZED ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOWISH CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE AND EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE PREVENTS ANY MENTION
OF TS BEING INCLUDED IN THE TAFORS.
DURING THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT ONLY CB CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF TO COME DIVING SSE FROM WI AND OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE NO TS AT/VICINITY TERMINALS.
* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE BREEZE TO REACH ORD AND MDW LATE
AFTERNOON.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR.
ALLSOPP
&&
.MARINE...
301 PM CDT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGGING DOWN THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS FLOPPING AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS
HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL DRAG A STRONGER FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
HIGHEST SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 15-20 WITH A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TUESDAY...THEN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 20 KTS BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
316 PM CDT
MAIN AFD FORTHCOMING...
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
WELL AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
DESPITE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THUS LIMITING HEAT INDEX VALUES AND KEEPING ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
*POTENTIAL OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
*POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AT/VICINITY TERMINALS DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO MAKE MORE STEADY PROGRESS INLAND.
RECENT MOVEMENT HAS TIME OF ARRIVAL AT 22Z FOR BOTH ORD AND MDW.
16Z RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND HAS THE BOUNDARY PASSING BY
BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON
INTO FIRST PART OF EVENING AS LAKE BREEZE CAUSES LOCALIZED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP MOVES FROM SW WI OVER N CENTRAL AND FAE NE IL. SO FAR...
MINIMAL CU ENHANCEMENT SO FAR WITH ONLY A FEW MODERATE CU FROM WI
STATE LINE NORTHWARD.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AT MIDDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL AND SE MN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI TO EXTREME NE CORNER OF IL AND FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MI. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH
WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF TS TO THE N-NE OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS.
A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPED DURING THE LATER MORNING AND STARTED TO
PUSH INLAND BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS HAS RETREATED BACK
TOWARD THE SHORELINE S OF THE CHI LOOP AND HAS WAVERED BACK AND
FORTH N OF THE LOOP. FOURTEEN N IN LAKE CO THE LAKE BREEZE HAS
BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND BEING HELPED BY THE WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT.
STEADY PUSH INLAND ACROSS LAKE CO N INTO FAR SE WI EXPECTED...
WITH IT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH LATE AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS
AT THIS TIME IS ~22Z.
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOCALIZED ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOWISH CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE AND EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE PREVENTS ANY MENTION
OF TS BEING INCLUDED IN THE TAFORS.
DURING THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT ONLY CB CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF TO COME DIVING SSE FROM WI AND OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE NO TS AT/VICINITY TERMINALS.
* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE BREEZE TO REACH ORD AND MDW LATE
AFTERNOON.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR.
ALLSOPP
&&
.MARINE...
301 PM CDT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGGING DOWN THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS FLOPPING AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS
HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL DRAG A STRONGER FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
HIGHEST SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 15-20 WITH A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TUESDAY...THEN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 20 KTS BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
650 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.UPDATE...
650 AM...THINGS ARE PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING AND I HAVE DROPPED THE
20 PCT POP FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS WITH PATCH OF THICKER CIRRUS
MOVING OVERHEAD.
ALLSOPP
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
325 AM...TWO FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
REMAIN HIGH TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AND POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES AND
PRECIP/CONVECTION.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 90S THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE RESULTING
WETTER SOIL/GROUND...HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW FAST IT WILL
ALLOW WARMING TODAY. HAVE MID 90S GOING MOST AREAS BUT THIS COULD
BE TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS THOUGH THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...ROUGHLY
RFD TO ORD...HAS MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND THIS AREA
LIKELY TO HEAT/WARM THE MOST. THAT SAID...THE RIDGE IS BUILDING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND APPEARS HIGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS 24 HRS
AGO HAD SUGGESTED SOME DRIER AIR COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND WHILE THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE...
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT AS DRY AND NOW HAVE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. CURRENT PEAK HEAT INDICES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 104 RANGE BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
WHILE A FEW AREAS MAY REACH 105 TODAY...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR EITHER DAY...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY...SHOULD DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THEN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 MAY RESULT WITH AN
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY IS COMPLICATED BY A POSSIBLE COMBO WEAK FRONT/LAKE
BREEZE THAT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH AND DEW POINTS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS
POOLING AHEAD OF THIS POSSIBLE FRONT/LAKE BREEZE. WITH TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME MODERATION/COOLING INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE LAKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND MID 90S/HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 ARE INDEED POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE FRONT.
THURSDAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE GIVEN
THE LIGHT GRADIENT WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105
AGAIN.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME CONSENSUS OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN LAKES...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON FRIDAY...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER MAY HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOWER/MID 70S
AND THIS COULD BE THE HOTTEST/MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THIS
EXTENDED HEAT WAVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH
INTO THE 105-110 RANGE. STILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 90S ON SATURDAY
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED/ARRIVAL OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT.
AS FOR PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES...TRENDS/SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE DRY AND ATTEMPTING TO TIME ANY
POSSIBLE FEATURES BECOMES PROBLEMATIC. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PERHAPS AIDED BY THE LAKE
BREEZE. THEN LIKELY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL SOMETHING
WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SOMETHING WITH THE STRONGER FRONT SATURDAY...BUT POPS ALL IN THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY.
ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER THOUGH THERE
DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANY CLEAR TRENDS OF ONE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP/AFFECT THE CWA...THAT COULD ALSO IMPACT
HIGH TEMPS/HEAT INDICES.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND/LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG/HAZE FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAVORED AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS.
CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
*POTENTIAL OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
*POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AT/VICINITY TERMINALS DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO MAKE MORE STEADY PROGRESS INLAND.
RECENT MOVEMENT HAS TIME OF ARRIVAL AT 22Z FOR BOTH ORD AND MDW.
16Z RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND HAS THE BOUNDARY PASSING BY
BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON
INTO FIRST PART OF EVENING AS LAKE BREEZE CAUSES LOCALIZED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP MOVES FROM SW WI OVER N CENTRAL AND FAE NE IL. SO FAR...
MINIMAL CU ENHANCEMENT SO FAR WITH ONLY A FEW MODERATE CU FROM WI
STATE LINE NORTHWARD.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AT MIDDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL AND SE MN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI TO EXTREME NE CORNER OF IL AND FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MI. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH
WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF TS TO THE N-NE OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS.
A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPED DURING THE LATER MORNING AND STARTED TO
PUSH INLAND BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS HAS RETREATED BACK
TOWARD THE SHORELINE S OF THE CHI LOOP AND HAS WAVERED BACK AND
FORTH N OF THE LOOP. FOURTEEN N IN LAKE CO THE LAKE BREEZE HAS
BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND BEING HELPED BY THE WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT.
STEADY PUSH INLAND ACROSS LAKE CO N INTO FAR SE WI EXPECTED...
WITH IT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH LATE AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS
AT THIS TIME IS ~22Z.
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOCALIZED ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOWISH CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE AND EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE PREVENTS ANY MENTION
OF TS BEING INCLUDED IN THE TAFORS.
DURING THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT ONLY CB CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF TO COME DIVING SSE FROM WI AND OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE NO TS AT/VICINITY TERMINALS.
* MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE BREEZE TO REACH ORD AND MDW LATE
AFTERNOON.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR.
ALLSOPP
&&
.MARINE...
301 PM CDT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGGING DOWN THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS FLOPPING AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS
HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL DRAG A STRONGER FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
HIGHEST SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 15-20 WITH A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TUESDAY...THEN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 20 KTS BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
405 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONT TO FAVOR CAUTIONARY APPROACH WRT
POTNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TERM FOR CWA. DESPITE INCSRG
INSTABILITY THIS AFT/EVE AS SFC DPS BEGIN TO POOL TO NEAR 70F ACRS
NWRN CWA THIS AFTN...FAVORED INITIATION REGIONS EXIST BOTH
DOWN/UPSTREAM. STILL MODELS SPCLY GFS CONTS TO FAIL TO CAPTURE
SIGNIFICANCE OF DRY GROUND/D3 DROUGHT CONDS THAT HAVE EMERGED ACRS
NRN IN AND CONT TO SHAVE SVRL DEGREES DOWNWARD. THIS AM NOTED
SHORTWAVE/700H JETLET GENERATED XTRMLY HIGH ELEVATED CONVECTION
INVOF KCID...THIS FEATURE TO PUSH INTO NWRN OH THIS EVE WITH CAP
SLOWLY DERIDED PER SPC RAP IN TANDEM WITH CONCEPTUAL MODEL
EXPECTATIONS...THOUGH EAST OF CWA. WELL WEST OF CWA WITHIN DCPVA
ZONE AMID OVERLAP ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER/LESS INHIBITED
INSTABILITY AXIS FM NWRN IL WWD INTO SERN NE WITH MLCAPE 4000-5000
J/KG AND SRN PERIPHERY OF HIR DEEP LYR /0-6KM/ SHEAR OF 40-55KTS TO
LKLY SUPPORT MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS PLAINS INTO INTO IA/MO
NEAR/AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY 925-850MB JET STRENGTHENS/NOSES ACRS CNTL
KS. ADDNL/CONTD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT ACRS IA/MO THROUGH DAYBREAK AS
ERN PERIPHERY OF LLJ VEERS. LACK OF ULVL JET SUPPORT ACRS CWA
FURTHER POINTS TO LIKEN DRY BEGETS DRY. FLATTENED RIDGE TO ALLOW
SHALLOW SFC FNTL ZONE TO SLIDE SEWD QUIETLY THROUGH CWA...WITH ZONE
OF RICH 0-0.5KM THETA-E LAID OUT FM NRN IL INTO CNTL IN ON FRIDAY.
LOW/SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION INITIATION INVOF BNDRY WITH
INCRSD UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE AS NRN PLAINS UPR JETLET MOVES INTO SERN
LWR MI/LWR GRTLKS.
&&
.LONG TERM... / WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY /
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPS/HEAT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND LOW
CHANCES FOR ISO/SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...
UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HEAT DOME WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY ARE FCST TO
REACH THE 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES LIKELY NEARING OR
EXCEEDING 100F. EXPECTED DRYING UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND RESULTING DEEPER MIXING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS CLOSER
TO WARMER ECMWF MOS DURING THIS PERIOD. OPTED FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF APPARENT T`S NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IMPACTS FROM THE HEAT
(HOLIDAY AND POWER OUTAGES FROM RECENT SVR WX).
AN UPPER TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL CREST THE CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EVENTUALLY
HELPING TO REINFORCE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN DROPPING
A SFC CDFNT SWD THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY/MONDAY BEHIND
THIS FEATURE.
AS FOR PCPN/CONVECTION CHANCES...SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE SEWD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY FORCE A VERY SHALLOW SFC TROUGH SWD THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PULSE TYPE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER
EASTERN/SERN ZONES AND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...WITH ONLY LOW 15-25
POPS WARRANTED GIVEN LACK OF FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR AND WARMING ALOFT AS
700 HPA TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 12C. THIS WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY WASH OUT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FA BY THURSDAY AS STRONGER
CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WITH THIS OPTED TO CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FCST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING
CONVECTION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING
SO NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISO WIND/HAIL THREAT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION... /18 UTC TAFS/
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED/LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST ESPCLY WRT AFTN CONVECTION.
RELYING ON DESTABILIZATION LEEWARD OF LK MI THIS AFTN TO MORE DEEPLY
CONVECT WITH TIME THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH INCRSD MLYR INSTABILITY
AND INCRSG CONVERGENT FOCUS ALONG THERMAL CIRCULATION/LAKE BREEZE.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE RELEGATED TEMPO TSRA TO SOLELY ONE HOUR AT
KSBN AND LESSER CONFIDENCE FOR DOWNSTREAM MAINTENANCE ACRS NERN
IN/KFWA VCNTY...WITH ONLY 2 HR VCTS WARRANTED THERE. OTHERWISE VFR
MET CONDS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH WARMER THAN XOVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY BR FORMATION TO A PRIMARILY
ISOLD/SHALLOW NATURE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
032>034.
MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRESTING THE RIDGE INTO SE MANITOBA AND THE ADJACENT PORTION OF NRN
ONTARIO HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER TSRA OVER THE NW CORNER OF MN. AT THE
SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH NRN MN INTO CNTRL WI FROM LOW
PRES OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA. HOT AND HUMID AIR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HAS PUSHED MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 3K-4K J/KG RANGE. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI AND FAR SRN UPPER MI BUT HAVE
ALSO DISSIPATED QUICKLY WHERE LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDEPSREAD COVERAGE.
TONIGHT...
MODELS WERE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL EXPAND OVER
NRN MN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS REMAIN ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND LOCATION/TRACK OF THE EXPECTED MCS
MOVING OUT OF NRN MN. WITH ANL ESE TRACK TO ANY MCS AND A
POSSIBLE FURTHER TURN TO THE SOUTH...PER FOREWARD PROPAGATION
CORFIDI VECTORS AND 850-300 EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 03Z-12Z. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH GREATEST CHANCE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FOR SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING...PER
SPC...GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
(MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING IN THE 2K-3K J/KG RANGE).
TUESDAY...REMAING SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
WITH COOLER AIR ONLY ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE ENHANCING 500MB LOWS OVER NE
HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND SW CANADA. A TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE E
CANADA LOW WILL BE JUST TO OUR E BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP SHOULD BE QUICKLY EXITING E AS THE SFC SHIFTS FROM S JAMES
BAY AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKING SE TO N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE HEAT TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT RESTS
OVER S LOWER MI AND WI TO THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SD. 850MB
TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH DURING THIS THEORETICAL COOL DONN
PERIOD...FROM 20C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UP TO AN AVERAGE 21C BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SFC. DEW POINTS SHOULD
CHANGE THOUGH...AND HAVE LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO LOOK AT FURTHER LOWERING FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
TIME NEARS.
EXPECT THE SFC HIGH TO EDGE E WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SWINGING OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND THE WARM
FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES...THEY REMAIN WEAK...WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC THROUGH
850MB...WITH LAKE BREEZES CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY...INLAND FROM AREAS
RIGHT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 22C BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE S FLOW...AND
WOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES /COOL DOWN/ OVER N CENTRAL UPPER
MI. HEAT INDEX VALUES/APPARENT TEMPS WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE 92 TO
99 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST WEST AND CENTRAL.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SINK TO OUR SE BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIP S DURING THE DAY AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM S CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT /DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO COOL OFF A BIT FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA LOOKED TO BE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THE FCST BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVER NRN MN THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOPI INTO AN MCS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN VCTS AT THIS POINT SINCE SHRA/TSRA
HAVE NOT YET DEVELOPED AND SO NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACT TIMING/LOCATION.
SOME LOWER CIGS/VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF PASSAGE OF SHRA/TSRA DOES
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL TRHEAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS WITH AN MCS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. AREA OF FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES MADE TO CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER ERN ZONES. THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS
SHIFTED INTO ERN ZONES AND WILL HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM WRN AL CONVECTION HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED AT
SOME ERN MS LOCATIONS TO HELP FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGHS TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE NERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION TO WARM A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXERTS STRONG INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS AGREE THAT A SUB-CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA...ENSURING
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP HEAT STRESS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES..A DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY COULD
HELP TO SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOR RENEWED CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND HAVE EDGED MAV MOS POPS
UPWARD A BIT TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MICROBURSTS. WITH DCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 1500 J/KG...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SE OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A POCKET OF GREATER SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER/STABLE AIR MIGRATING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER TSTM CHANCES EXIST ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR FOR TUES
AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION PLAYS OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED HOT SFC TEMPS
AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY
AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO MENTION IN THE HWO YET. /EC/
.LONG TERM...RATHER HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT AT LEAST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE (WITH HIGHS SHY OF THE
CENTURY MARK). ANOTHER PLUS IS THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY RETURN TO AVERAGE MID-SUMMER LEVELS BY THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK AND GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC UPPER LEVELS LOOKS
TO STILL BE PLAGUING MOST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DEEP RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL BE HEADED DOWN
OUR DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST. IT IS THIS EVOLUTION THAT WILL
HELP INCREASE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE
AREA...INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAT AND DRYNESS FROM THE RIDGING
INFLUENCE MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO LONGER TO BREAK IN THE NORTHWEST
ARKLAMISS DELTA...BUT IT EVENTUALLY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR EVEN THERE.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT SETUP ADVERTISED BY MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR) COULD GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN ON 1 OR 2
DAYS OVER THE COURSE OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY PERIOD. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT FEATURES MODELS ARE PREDICTING ARE SOMEWHAT SUBTLE
AND DETAILS WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS (WHICH ARE
UNPREDICTABLE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME). FOR THAT REASON I STUCK PRETTY
CLOSE TO MEXMOS POPS OVER THE LONG TERM (AND EVEN CUT BACK SOME VERY
AGGRESSIVE NUMBERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY).
BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL AN ACTUAL
COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO HERE AS THE NASTY RIDGE ALOFT
RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST. THAT WOULD SPELL TEMPERATURES COOLING
DOWN A BIT MORE WITH EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES...AND MOST WOULD
PROBABLY RANK THOSE AS POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS. BUT GIVEN THAT
EVOLUTION WOULD BE 7 OR 8 DAYS FROM NOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHING FOR SOME POTENT AFTERNOON
STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE TO POSE AT LEAST A
MICROBURST RISK FROM PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME PSBL BRIEF MVFR VIS THIS
AFTN FOR KMEI/KGTR/KHBG AS ISO/SCT TSRA DVLP. CNTRL TAF SITES COULD
SEE ISO SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG/AFTN ALSO. HIGHEST STORM STOPS TO FL450
WITH ENHANCED TURBULENCE INVOF TSRA ACROSS E/CNTRL MS. ACTIVITY WILL
WANE THROUGH 03/01Z. MVFR VIS DOWN TO 2-4 SM PSBL 03/08Z-13Z ACROSS
ERN SITES..ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB
FROM W/N AT 4-9 KT. ERRATIC AND HIGHER WINDS PSBL INVOF TSRA THIS
AFTN. /ALLEN/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
SINCE SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE ARKLAMISS ARE UNDER BURN BANS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH AND
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. HOT
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
03/EC/BB/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
545 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. HOW
MUCH THE INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO RECOVER IS IN QUESTION...
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH VEERING MANY WINDS IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
MID-LEVEL CAP BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH...
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER INDICES THIS MORNING...
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THE BEST MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND RAP TRENDS DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA BEING ABLE
TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER SOME IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DID SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...
SO WILL CONTINUE THE BASIC FORECAST OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
UNDER BETTER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH...AND WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD TAKE EVEN LONGER TO RECOVER.
OVERNIGHT...DESPITE GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EDGING BACK TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY...
MID-LEVEL NVA IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH 850MB SUBSIDENCE. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE...OVERALL...FAIRLY STABLE...AND WILL FORECAST THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEING DRY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A
FEW 60S READINGS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE OVERALL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR LATEST OVERNIGHT. UNDER LIGHT WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME LIGHT FOG OR AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE COULD OCCUR
AND BE NOTICED AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.
TUESDAY...850-700MB LAPSE RATES RALLY BACK TO VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 8C/KM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER...AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
REGIONAL 850MB THETA-E MAXIMUM IN PLACE...AND THE APPROACH OF A
1.5PVU WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OR WESTERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1000J/KG...THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK APPEARS
REASONABLE.
HEAT ADVISORY VALUES SHOULD BE APPROACHED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM U.S. 1 EAST AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KMEB...THROUGH KFAY...TO ABOUT KRWI. EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
ON THE MARGINS...APPROACHING 105...AND FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
WILL NOT CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER DAY ALLOWING A
REVIEW OF LATER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE TO ASCERTAIN THE
DETAILS AND POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY MENTION THIS IN
AN UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND REGARDLESS...
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY IN
ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO CAUSE
SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE PRECIP WATER VALUES REACHING 1.8-2 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF VORTICES TRAVERSING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL AID TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS. WHILE EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
OCCUR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS...A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TO DROP SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A
GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WIND FIELD NOT OVERLY STRONG SUGGESTING SLOW
MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...MAINLY
IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...QUITE A BIT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING BOTH DAYS.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WHICH WILL
BE DICTATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
THINK THAT WE MAY SEE QUITE OF BIT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING
LIMITING INSOLATION THOUGH SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN BY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...
THURSDAY...LOW-MID LEVEL NW FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE LINGERING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
T-STORMS THU AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS. THIS TOO WILL AID TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION BUT LEAD TO HOT TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY WILL EXPAND
EAST WITH NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY BOTH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WARMING ATMOSPHERE LEADS TO
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10M ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND 20M ABOVE ON
SATURDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY AND
MID-UPPER 90S SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THOUGH MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO DIMINISH RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN OUR REGION.
STILL...WITH A MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DO EXPECT
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. THICKNESSES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL YIELDING MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
MONDAY...MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND GAINS SOME AMPLITUDE.
THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW A S/W AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH/ENTER OUR REGION. WENT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE POP MONDAY WITH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER TEMPS THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
GETTING CLOSE TO OR OVER A TAF SITE IS AT KFAY LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AREAS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALL TO MVFR IN LIGHT FOG OR
HAZE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KRWI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF. MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK AND TURN
LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10KT AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREAFTER...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE...MAINLY MVFR...COULD
OCCUR AS THE AIR MASS CHANGES LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
JULY 3 (TUESDAY)
RDU: 98 (1955)
GSO: 98 (1911)
FAY: 100 (1954)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/30/2012, 6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988,
7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. HOW
MUCH THE INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO RECOVER IS IN QUESTION...
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH VEERING MANY WINDS IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
MID-LEVEL CAP BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH...
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER INDICES THIS MORNING...
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THE BEST MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND RAP TRENDS DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA BEING ABLE
TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER SOME IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DID SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...
SO WILL CONTINUE THE BASIC FORECAST OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
UNDER BETTER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH...AND WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD TAKE EVEN LONGER TO RECOVER.
OVERNIGHT...DESPITE GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EDGING BACK TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY...
MID-LEVEL NVA IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH 850MB SUBSIDENCE. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE...OVERALL...FAIRLY STABLE...AND WILL FORECAST THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEING DRY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A
FEW 60S READINGS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE OVERALL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR LATEST OVERNIGHT. UNDER LIGHT WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME LIGHT FOG OR AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE COULD OCCUR
AND BE NOTICED AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.
TUESDAY...850-700MB LAPSE RATES RALLY BACK TO VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 8C/KM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER...AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
REGIONAL 850MB THETA-E MAXIMUM IN PLACE...AND THE APPROACH OF A
1.5PVU WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OR WESTERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1000J/KG...THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK APPEARS
REASONABLE.
HEAT ADVISORY VALUES SHOULD BE APPROACHED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM U.S. 1 EAST AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KMEB...THROUGH KFAY...TO ABOUT KRWI. EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
ON THE MARGINS...APPROACHING 105...AND FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
WILL NOT CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER DAY ALLOWING A
REVIEW OF LATER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE TO ASCERTAIN THE
DETAILS AND POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY MENTION THIS IN
AN UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND REGARDLESS...
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY IN
ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO CAUSE
SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE PRECIP WATER VALUES REACHING 1.8-2 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF VORTICES TRAVERSING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL AID TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS. WHILE EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
OCCUR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS...A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TO DROP SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A
GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WIND FIELD NOT OVERLY STRONG SUGGESTING SLOW
MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...MAINLY
IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...QUITE A BIT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING BOTH DAYS.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WHICH WILL
BE DICTATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
THINK THAT WE MAY SEE QUITE OF BIT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING
LIMITING INSOLATION THOUGH SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN BY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM MONDAY...
THURSDAY...LOW-MID LEVEL NW FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE LINGERING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
T-STORMS THU AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS. THIS TOO WILL AID TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION BUT LEAD TO HOT TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY WILL EXPAND
EAST WITH NOSE OF UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY BOTH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WARMING ATMOSPHERE LEADS TO
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10M ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND 20M ABOVE ON
SATURDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY AND
MID-UPPER 90S SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THOUGH MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO DIMINISH RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN OUR REGION.
STILL...WITH A MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DO EXPECT
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. THICKNESSES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL YIELDING MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
MONDAY...MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND GAINS SOME AMPLITUDE.
THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW A S/W AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH/ENTER OUR REGION. WENT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE POP MONDAY WITH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER TEMPS THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
GETTING CLOSE TO OR OVER A TAF SITE IS AT KFAY LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AREAS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALL TO MVFR IN LIGHT FOG OR
HAZE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KRWI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF. MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK AND TURN
LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10KT AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREAFTER...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE...MAINLY MVFR...COULD
OCCUR AS THE AIR MASS CHANGES LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
JULY 3 (TUESDAY)
RDU: 98 (1955)
GSO: 98 (1911)
FAY: 100 (1954)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/30/2012, 6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988,
7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
102 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY HAD SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. HOW
MUCH THE INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO RECOVER IS IN QUESTION...
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH VEERING MANY WINDS IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
MID-LEVEL CAP BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH...
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER INDICES THIS MORNING...
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THE BEST MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND RAP TRENDS DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA BEING ABLE
TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER SOME IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DID SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...
SO WILL CONTINUE THE BASIC FORECAST OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
UNDER BETTER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH...AND WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD TAKE EVEN LONGER TO RECOVER.
OVERNIGHT...DESPITE GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EDGING BACK TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY...
MID-LEVEL NVA IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH 850MB SUBSIDENCE. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE...OVERALL...FAIRLY STABLE...AND WILL FORECAST THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEING DRY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A
FEW 60S READINGS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE OVERALL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR LATEST OVERNIGHT. UNDER LIGHT WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME LIGHT FOG OR AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE COULD OCCUR
AND BE NOTICED AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.
TUESDAY...850-700MB LAPSE RATES RALLY BACK TO VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 8C/KM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER...AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
REGIONAL 850MB THETA-E MAXIMUM IN PLACE...AND THE APPROACH OF A
1.5PVU WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OR WESTERN PIEDMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1000J/KG...THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK APPEARS
REASONABLE.
HEAT ADVISORY VALUES SHOULD BE APPROACHED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM U.S. 1 EAST AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KMEB...THROUGH KFAY...TO ABOUT KRWI. EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
ON THE MARGINS...APPROACHING 105...AND FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
WILL NOT CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER DAY ALLOWING A
REVIEW OF LATER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE TO ASCERTAIN THE
DETAILS AND POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY MENTION THIS IN
AN UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND REGARDLESS...
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY IN
ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM ...
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
AND SOME SOMEWHAT COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION
OF A S/W TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WED-THU. THIS SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED MOIST
AXIS ALOFT...ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WED AND
THU. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE CAROLINAS/VA FRI-SUN...WHICH
SHOULD BOTH WARM TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 90S (94 TO 99) AND
DIMINISH CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NC...BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
GETTING CLOSE TO OR OVER A TAF SITE IS AT KFAY LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AREAS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALL TO MVFR IN LIGHT FOG OR
HAZE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KRWI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF. MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK AND TURN
LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10KT AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREAFTER...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE...MAINLY MVFR...COULD
OCCUR AS THE AIR MASS CHANGES LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 630 UPDATE. NO TSRA IN OHIO...BUT WITH
CAPES HOVERING AROUND 2000 J/KG NOT READY TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
YET. RIGHT NOW WATCHING SOME STORMS NE WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THEM.
IT REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR WHICH DID A DECENT JOB LAST
NIGHT...CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO THE NW AND W WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES SIMILAR TO EARLIER PACKAGE. WESTERN AREAS
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO
KNOW HOW MUCH OF THIS IS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THAT IT IS WHEN THE PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY MAX OUT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENT THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE WARNING AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL HANG ON TO A MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY
FOR DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
WARM AND HAVE GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED
TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WHEN SOME MVFR FOG WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP FOR INLAND TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR WESTERN TAF TONIGHT BUT THREAT TOO SMALL TO MENTION. BETTER
CHANCE FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THREAT STILL LIMITED
SO WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS FOR NOW.
.OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN NON VFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO CROSS THE LAKE. UNTIL THEN THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE LAKE APPEARS TO
BE QUIET...WITH WAVES STAYING 3 FEET OR LESS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY GET A LITTLE MORE CHOPPY WITH NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER THE FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB/KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CLEVELAND OH
628 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 630 UPDATE. NO TSRA IN OHIO...BUT WITH
CAPES HOVERING AROUND 2000 J/KG NOT READY TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS
YET. RIGHT NOW WATCHING SOME STORMS NE WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THEM.
IT REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR WHICH DID A DECENT JOB LAST
NIGHT...CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT WELL
TO THE NW AND W WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES SIMILAR TO EARLIER PACKAGE. WESTERN AREAS
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO
KNOW HOW MUCH OF THIS IS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THAT IT IS WHEN THE PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY MAX OUT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENT THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE WARNING AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL HANG ON TO A MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY
FOR DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
WARM AND HAVE GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED
TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN NON VFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO CROSS THE LAKE. UNTIL THEN THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE LAKE APPEARS TO
BE QUIET...WITH WAVES STAYING 3 FEET OR LESS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY GET A LITTLE MORE CHOPPY WITH NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS
AFTER THE FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB/KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS PLACED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN
NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES RECORDED. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
BEFORE OR NEAR SUNSET.
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN SLIDE BACK
WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN. WITH THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...HAVE
INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN ACTIVITY
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN OF
ACTIVITY WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY ALSO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS START TO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYING OUT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND OR BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...STARTING ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN THIS
BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 95 78 98 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
WACO, TX 77 96 77 97 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 72 94 73 95 74 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 76 95 75 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 74 95 75 97 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 77 95 79 99 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 75 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 94 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 73 94 73 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 95 73 98 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...AND WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HELP STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT
HEATING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE
SUPPORTS SOME POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS HINTED AT IN THE RUC.
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.
WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE GFS KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AFTER 00Z WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS OR WARM FRONTAL TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND MINUS 7 TO OUR WEST FROM INDIANA
SOUTH TO TENNESSEE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DROP SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CWA TONIGHT.
PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONTS. HEAT INDEX REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. PLAYED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND MID RANGE
FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. HIGH LOWER A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND EACH ONE WILL SPARK A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES
CAN DEVELOP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...THERE COULD BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM OVER OHIO AND INDIANA.
BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
AGREE ON A MORE POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT EVENING...SO POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE MOMENTUM TRYING TO CROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AND IT MAY LIKELY STALL OUT BY MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS THROUGH VALID PERIOD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CONVECTION...CHANCES...AND TIMING. ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF A LATE
DAY/EVENING MCS APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT TODAY THAN SUNDAY AS UPPER
SUPPORT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT
ONE OF THAT MAGNITUDE TO ARRIVE LATER TUE.
THE WRFARW-RNK CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CALMER AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG EASTERN SLOPE OF
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION
DRIFTING NE FROM NE TN/NW NC AFT 00Z. KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN
TAFS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS OVER CHAOTIC AND LIGHT OUTSIDE TSRA ACTIVITY. FAVORED
DIRECTION/SPEED ONCE AGAIN NW 5-10KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW END GUSTS
ACROSS AREAS ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1232 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...AND WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE MOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS FINALLY
STABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE FROM THE PAST WEEKEND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE 8 AM RNK SOUNDING CONFIRMS THIS FACT WITH THE
DECENT INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE. POPS WERE LOWERED THIS MORNING
TO REFLECT THESE LATEST CONDITIONS...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WERE PLACED IN FAR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
ACCORDING TO CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER MCS RAKES THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SE
STATES...BUT MAINTAINING UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.
A DISTURBANCE...WELL PROGGED BY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS...TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SE WV/SW VA LATE
SUN...AND FUELED THE LATEST MCS. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT SUCH DISTURBANCES TO CONTINUE
TO BE A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT EARLY SHORT WAVE HAS SHIFTED SE OF THE CWA AND
LITTLE APPEARS UPSTREAM UNTIL AFT 00Z TONIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONG ALL SHORT RANGE/LONG RANGE MODELS FOR TODAY THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. AFT 00Z...AS
USUAL...MIXED SIGNALS EXIST ON CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES.
HOWEVER...MOST FAVORED SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NE TN AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NE INTO SW VA/NW NC THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY AS ANOTHER MCS OR
EVEN WARM FRONTAL TYPE EVENT. LOCAL WRF STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FURTHERMORE...SPC HAS BACKED OFF EARLIER SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA IN FAVOR OF JUST A 5 PERCENT RISK. THUS...HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z...WITH LOW END CHC POPS FAR SW VA/NW NC AFT 18Z. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO CHC CATEGORY MOST AREAS AFT 00Z FROM SW-NE..BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS SCENARIO.
THE OTHER STORY REMAINS THE HEAT. 850MB TEMPS SHOW VERY LITTLE
COOLING...STILL RUNNING +22 TO +24C ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN
TODAY...AND HOVERING AROUND +20C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT
LEAST...UNFORTUNATELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED GROUND MOISTENING
FROM DAILY CONVECTION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER AND OUTFLOW COOLING...ALL WILL HELP TO ABATE THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT. HEAT INDICES REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ALL
PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY...ONLY NEARING 100 IN THE FAR SE PART OF
THE CWA...NAMELY THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF NC. NONETHELESS...AS NOTED
ABOVE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...JUST NOT RECORD LEVELS AS IN RECENT DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTEN FOR BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH A TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...HELPING TO SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS IS TYPICAL
DURING THE SUMMER...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. STILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BOTH DAYS AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITS OVER THE PLAINS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT
WILL TRIGGER AN ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EITHER DAY. THAT
STATED...DO NOT REALLY SEE ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES IN THE FORECAST
MODEL DATA FOR EITHER DAY...AND BELIEVE CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE
TRIGGERED MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TUESDAY...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
FROM BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH DANVILLE VIRGINIA...MAINLY
BASED ON INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN.
AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE DID NOT REALLY RECEIVE MUCH RAIN...AND WITH
TIME TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY...DID NOT THINK SOIL MOISTURE WOULD PLAY
A ROLE. THEREFORE...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE IN THIS
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS DAY AS WELL.
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
BY THURSDAY...AND MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK 5H TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO DETER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHILE MAKING FOR MORE OF A NW FLOW MCS TYPE
SCENARIO LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES DIVE SE AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE MCS
COMPLEX ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
MAY MAKE A RUN BY SUNDAY PER LATEST GFS BUT GIVEN THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL GO CLOSER TO THE EURO AND HOLD THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE 90S EAST AND
CLOSE TO 90 OR WARMER WEST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS THROUGH VALID PERIOD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CONVECTION...CHANCES...AND TIMING. ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF A LATE
DAY/EVENING MCS APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT TODAY THAN SUNDAY AS UPPER
SUPPORT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT
ONE OF THAT MAGNITUDE TO ARRIVE LATER TUE.
THE WRFARW-RNK CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CALMER AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG EASTERN SLOPE OF
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION
DRIFTING NE FROM NE TN/NW NC AFT 00Z. KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN
TAFS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS OVER CHAOTIC AND LIGHT OUTSIDE TSRA ACTIVITY. FAVORED
DIRECTION/SPEED ONCE AGAIN NW 5-10KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW END GUSTS
ACROSS AREAS ALONG-EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND SPECIFICALLY DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
95 AND 103. TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WERE JUST IN THE 80S.
02.00Z MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN
SEEING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENT WITH LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING IN THE SAME AREA. SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 3 KILOMETERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS DO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING...PERHAPS JUST ON THE FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH CONSECUTIVE
RUNS...WHICH ALSO MATCHES WITH THE NAM. SHEAR DIMINISHES AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON AND EXPECT THIS TO DIE OUT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
CONVECTION NOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN
MCS AND DIVE EAST- SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE
NAM AND GFS. THUS HAVE KEPT PROBABILITIES IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. TRACK AND STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
MCS WILL PUSH EAST TUESDAY MORNING....WITH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
BUILD NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S CELSIUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 90S AND PERHAPS SOME LOW 100S IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS.
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR THE WARMER PORTIONS OF
THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT...IS DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES.
HOWEVER...THESE LOWER DEW POINTS MAY THEN RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT AND DID GO AHEAD AND
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
UPPER RIDGE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN
BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS ITS TOP.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT ADVISORIES REMAINING
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED UNTIL RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
CONVECTION FIRING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...IN RESPONSE TO UNSTABLE
AIR INTERACTING WITH THE CLASH BETWEEN A LAKE BREEZE AND A
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING PORTION OF A SFC FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY
TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS THE LEADING CAUSE OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TS OVER
ND/NORTHERN MN. SOME MESO MODELS...ALA THE HRRR...FAVOR MOVING THIS
CLUSTER INTO NORTHERN WI...THEN DIVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. RAP CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS MOVEMENT.
MEANWHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS THE CLUSTER STEADY TO THE EAST. IF IT
DIVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KLSE COULD BE IMPACTED. SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD
SEEM TO FAVOR A DUE EAST MOVEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVE THOUGH...WHILE
THE 500-300 MB FLOW STAYS EAST VIA THE RAP/NAM12. GOING TO STAY DRY
FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
COULD RESULT IN DAILY LOSSES OF 0.35 TO 0.40 INCH FROM THE SOILS.
IN ADDITION...THE CORN CROP COULD BE USING A 0.25 TO 0.30 OF AN
INCH PER DAY. THIS IS ITS HIGHEST USAGE FOR ITS LIFE CYCLE. RAIN
IS CRITICAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SINCE THIS IS WHEN IT WILL BE
CREATING ITS EARS.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE
NEAR THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
RECORD HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON
THE 4TH WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM....RABERDING
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
523 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SEVERE WITH MAINLY HAIL FIRED UP ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
NEW LONDON TO SHAWANO. ANTICIPATE MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THIS
SAME VICINITY THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS THESE STORMS TRACK FURTHER
EAST...RADAR IS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND.
TDH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
COMBINATION OF WARM FROM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...INCREASING INSTABLITY AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM MINNESOTA HAVE COMBINED
TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE FOX VALLEY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRYING TO INITIATE NEAR
THE WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF WAUSHARA NORTH TO SOUTHERN SHAWANO
COUNTIES. HRRR HAS ALSO HINTED AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORMING IN
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
WAUSAU NORTH TO RHINELANDER. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...THEN DIMINSH AFTER SUNSET.
BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS OFFER
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR MCS INITIATION OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD PROPAGATION
THEREAFTER. ACTIVTY IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING...BUT SUSPECT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
...ACTIVITY SHOULD GET ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
ANY MCS THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED WILL LIKELY HEAD ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PERHAPS TURN MORE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOX VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TAPPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MCS ACTIVITY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY MET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN COORDINATIN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES OPTED
TO START EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND PCPN CHANCES...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 95-105 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. FOR PROLONGED EVENTS OF 4 DAYS OR LONGER...WE LOWER
THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TO 95+...WHICH MAKES THE ISSUANCE OF
AN ADVISORY AN EASIER CALL. RIGHT NOW...THE HOTTEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE THURSDAY...WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO
100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF C/EC/NE WI. FORTUNATELY DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE SANDY SOIL LOCATIONS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY ARE WARMEST SPOTS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR HEAT INDICES MAINLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND
GENERALLY COVER AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO SHAWANO TO
GREEN BAY...EXCLUDING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
OUR BEST PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW AND WEAK...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AT 925/850
MB. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...
BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...THINK THAT OUR CURRENT 20-30 POPS
WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES FROM WEDS THROUGH
THU NGT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CHANCE
POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE SECOND FROPA ON FRI/FRI NGT...WITH
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE FOX VALLEY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...THEN AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH ANY MCS ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINLY ON TRACK
OF THIS COMPLEX ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER IN RHI TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>039-045-
048-049.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
COMBINATION OF WARM FROM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...INCREASING INSTABLITY AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM MINNESOTA HAVE COMBINED
TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE FOX VALLEY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRYING TO INITIATE NEAR
THE WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF WAUSHARA NORTH TO SOUTHERN SHAWANO
COUNTIES. HRRR HAS ALSO HINTED AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORMING IN
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
WAUSAU NORTH TO RHINELANDER. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...THEN DIMINSH AFTER SUNSET.
BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS OFFER
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR MCS INITIATION OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD PROPAGATION
THEREAFTER. ACTIVTY IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING...BUT SUSPECT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
...ACTIVITY SHOULD GET ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
ANY MCS THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED WILL LIKELY HEAD ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PERHAPS TURN MORE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOX VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TAPPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MCS ACTIVITY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY MET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN COORDINATIN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES OPTED
TO START EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND PCPN CHANCES...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 95-105 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. FOR PROLONGED EVENTS OF 4 DAYS OR LONGER...WE LOWER
THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TO 95+...WHICH MAKES THE ISSUANCE OF
AN ADVISORY AN EASIER CALL. RIGHT NOW...THE HOTTEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE THURSDAY...WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO
100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF C/EC/NE WI. FORTUNATELY DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE SANDY SOIL LOCATIONS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY ARE WARMEST SPOTS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR HEAT INDICES MAINLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND
GENERALLY COVER AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO SHAWANO TO
GREEN BAY...EXCLUDING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
OUR BEST PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW AND WEAK...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AT 925/850
MB. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...
BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...THINK THAT OUR CURRENT 20-30 POPS
WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES FROM WEDS THROUGH
THU NGT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CHANCE
POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE SECOND FROPA ON FRI/FRI NGT...WITH
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE FOX VALLEY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...THEN AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH ANY MCS ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINLY ON TRACK
OF THIS COMPLEX ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER IN RHI TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>039-045-
048-049.
&&
$$
ESB/KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE THE EXTREMELY LIMITED ACTIVITY ON
THE RADAR...NOT QUITE READY TO GIVE UP ON THE CHANCE YET. THERE IS
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOW STARTING TO SHOW A FEW LARGER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA IN COLUMBIA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BASED ON THE RAP MODEL SHOWS VERY HIGH CAPE
VALUES /BOTH MIXED LAYER AND SURFACE/ AND LIMITED CIN VALUES OVER
ALL OF WISCONSIN. WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN
THE 90S IN PLACE...THE ONLY THING LACKING IS A TRIGGER. WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BOTH LOW
LEVEL AND BULK...WHICH LIMITS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AFTER DARK WHEN THE LAKE BREEZE GIVES UP...THEN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END. WARM NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MET IN THE EVENING AND THEN STEADY TEMPS OR
GRADUAL WARMING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 22 KNOTS/24 MPH WILL
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND NOON TO 2 PM AND THEN THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO OVER 850MB. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 30C
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 23C YIELD MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 100F. EXPECT
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS TO START OUT AROUND 70 IN THE MORNING AND MIX OUT
INTO THE MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE AND THEY COULD MIX EVEN LOWER.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE PARKED IN NORTHERN WI DURING THE DAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE
DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SRN WI LATE TUE NT AND WED AND
SLOWLY LIFT NWD FOR THU. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TUE NT OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED WITH LITTLE TO NO
FRONTAL LIFT. HOT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER HUNDREDS. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S FOR FAR ERN WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN USA WILL BUCKLE SOME AND BECOME
NWLY ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO IL/IA DURING
THE WEEKEND. THUS HIGH TEMPS DROP INTO THE 80S CWA WIDE FOR SUN
AND MON. OTHERWISE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
INTO FRI EVENING BUT WILL WATCH FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOOKING A LITTLE BIGGER THAN OTHERS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE. A FEW
RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD. IF A SITE GETS CONVECTION...WILL SEE LOWER MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON. NO LAKE BREEZE ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET TUE EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...
BREEZY AND WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER LAKE WILL CREATE A
STABILIZING EFFECT AND WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHTER. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHING THE CRITICAL LEVEL ON
TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CAUSE OF CONCERN FOR HEADLINES. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ052-060-066-
071-072.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>059-
062>065-067>070.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND SPECIFICALLY DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
95 AND 103. TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WERE JUST IN THE 80S.
02.00Z MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN
SEEING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENT WITH LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING IN THE SAME AREA. SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 3 KILOMETERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS DO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING...PERHAPS JUST ON THE FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH CONSECUTIVE
RUNS...WHICH ALSO MATCHES WITH THE NAM. SHEAR DIMINISHES AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON AND EXPECT THIS TO DIE OUT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
CONVECTION NOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN
MCS AND DIVE EAST- SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE
NAM AND GFS. THUS HAVE KEPT PROBABILITIES IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. TRACK AND STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
MCS WILL PUSH EAST TUESDAY MORNING....WITH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
BUILD NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S CELSIUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 90S AND PERHAPS SOME LOW 100S IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS.
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR THE WARMER PORTIONS OF
THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT...IS DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES.
HOWEVER...THESE LOWER DEW POINTS MAY THEN RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT AND DID GO AHEAD AND
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
UPPER RIDGE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN
BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS ITS TOP.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT ADVISORIES REMAINING
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED UNTIL RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO
CENTRAL WI...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. MODELS SHOWING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN PEAK
HEATING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF
SITES NEAR I-94. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AN NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. GAIN...LOOKS LIKE THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN MID CLOUD WITH BASES AOA 7KFT. OTHERWISE...
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LATER COOLS TONIGHT WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
PLACE...PLAN ON SOME LIGHT 4-5SM BR. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR THE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DURING THE DAY AND 75-80 DEGREES AT NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
COULD RESULT IN DAILY LOSSES OF 0.35 TO 0.40 INCH FROM THE SOILS.
IN ADDITION...THE CORN CROP COULD BE USING A 0.25 TO 0.30 OF AN
INCH PER DAY. THIS IS ITS HIGHEST USAGE FOR ITS LIFE CYCLE. RAIN
IS CRITICAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SINCE THIS IS WHEN IT WILL BE
CREATING ITS EARS.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE
NEAR THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
RECORD HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON
THE 4TH WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ/BOYNE