Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/01/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
835 PM MST SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THE MCV ARE NOW MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
CLEAR SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS MAINLY LOWER TO BETTER
MATCH WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TO REFLECT THE CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS
AREAWIDE HAVE BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AFTER SOME LOCATIONS SAW 25-30
MPH GUSTS EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ACROSS
ARIZONA LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN MCV NEAR PUERTO PENASCO...WHICH
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FAILED TO
INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE...THOUGH HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF AND RAP HAVE INDEED CAPTURED THE PRESENCE OF THE VORT. ONLY
SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OTHERWISE...FLOW GENERALLY
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
EASTERN AZ AND POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ROUGHLY A DEGREE COOLER
FOR SUNDAY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SONORA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHARP INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MIXING RATIOS MON-TUE ACROSS AZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. POPS WERE INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY FROM PHOENIX SOUTH AND EASTWARD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PINAL COUNTY...TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED. AT THE VERY LEAST...BLOWING DUST
FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TUCSON APPEARS LIKELY...AND THIS WAS
INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST FOR PINAL COUNTY. INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WED...THOUGH THE CONVECTION MAY
BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THU...WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY MORE
MOIST THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH FUELS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. EVEN THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND POPS WERE
INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
WED-THU...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
KIPL...KBLH...KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KIPL AND KBLH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT KBLH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN FOR MOST
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE A WESTWARD PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. SO...THE LOWER DESERTS WEST OF THE
COLORADO RIVER MAY REMAIN QUITE DRY OTHER THAN SHOWING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RECOVERY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERALL...BUT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER
THAT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAVEL CONSIDERABLE
DISTANCES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY
AZZ022-023-027-028.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HOT...BREEZY...AND DRY WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
POP AND WX GRIDS BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS. THE CONVECTION HAS
FALLEN A PART OVER THE FCST AREA. THERE IS JUST AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS IS
APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 13Z. THE SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
BY THE LATE MORNING WITH BREEZY AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE COOL FRONT HEADS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. AN IMPULSE IN THE W/NW FLOW MOVING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAS FOCUSED A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ FORMING OVER W-CNTRL PA. THE MCS IS FIRING
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND HAS REACHED SRN NJ AND DE. A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH
POCKETS UP TO A 1000 J/KG. MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED
WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. H700-500 LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE
6.5 TO 7C/KM RANGE. SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA
BY 12Z. WE HAVE TRENDED IT QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W-CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LOT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 17C TO 20C RANGE. DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND H850 WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO
L90S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW MID 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ AND
U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS OF 1O TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
ADVISORY RANGE WITH THE LOWERING SFC DEWPTS AND RH VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL LATE JUNE EVENING IS
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AS A WEAK SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. RADITIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN
DACKS. THERE MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WE
PLACED IT IN NEAR ERN WINDHAM CTY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
SATURDAY...A NICE WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TO START...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MAY FOCUS ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
AND EAST. LIMITED INSTABILITY OF 500-100 J/KG IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM
AGAIN. THE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THE BEST
DEEP SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME..BUT A FEW COULD BE
STRONG IF GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
COULD REACH IN THE U80S TO L90S ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION WITH THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ENDING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MID
AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...AND
LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TO START THE DAY. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE
LEFT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN
QUESTION FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CONUS. SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE GFS
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE PERIOD WHICH INDICATES A DRIER FORECAST. SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST SIMPLE WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR OUR NEXT OF THE WOODS WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 12Z IT WILL HAVE CLEARED KGFL...KALB AND KPOU
AND SHOULD CLEAR KPSF BY 13Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KALB. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHC AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
MON...VFR. CHC MAINLY AFTERNOON --SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...CAPITAL REGION...NORTHERN CATSKILLS...AND BERKSHIRES...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HOT...BREEZY...AND DRY WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND
THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 80-100
PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY. THE RH VALUES
WILL LOWER TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...TO
THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5
MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...NO WIDESPREAD
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
520 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HOT...BREEZY...AND DRY WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE POPS TO CHANCE
VALUES TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON
THE REGIONAL AND KENX RADAR IMAGERY. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ARE WEAKENING. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EXTENDING FROM I-90 SOUTH TO I-88 AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT.
THIS BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 09Z-10Z...AND
THEN WRN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 10Z-12Z.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. AN IMPULSE IN THE
W/NW FLOW MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAS FOCUSED A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ FORMING OVER W-CNTRL PA. THE MCS IS FIRING
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 08Z-10Z. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WEAK
COOL AND WARM FRONT. OTHER ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND INTO THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY BTWN 08Z-10Z.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH
POCKETS UP TO A 1000 J/KG. MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED
WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. H700-500 LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE
6.5 TO 7C/KM RANGE. SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA
BY 12Z. WE HAVE TRENDED IT QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W-CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LOT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 17C TO 20C RANGE. DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND H850 WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO
L90S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW MID 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ AND
U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS OF 1O TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
ADVISORY RANGE WITH THE LOWERING SFC DEWPTS AND RH VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL LATE JUNE EVENING IS
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AS A WEAK SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. RADITIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN
DACKS. THERE MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WE
PLACED IT IN NEAR ERN WINDHAM CTY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
SATURDAY...A NICE WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TO START...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MAY FOCUS ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
AND EAST. LIMITED INSTABILITY OF 500-100 J/KG IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM
AGAIN. THE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THE BEST
DEEP SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME..BUT A FEW COULD BE
STRONG IF GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
COULD REACH IN THE U80S TO L90S ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION WITH THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ENDING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MID
AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...AND
LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TO START THE DAY. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE
LEFT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN
QUESTION FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CONUS. SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE GFS
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE PERIOD WHICH INDICATES A DRIER FORECAST. SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST SIMPLE WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR OUR NEXT OF THE WOODS WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH...06Z/SATURDAY.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. BASED ON RADAR AND TRENDS HAVE CONVECTION IN
TAFS USING TEMPO GROUPS. THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN DECREASE. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KALB. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHC AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
MON...VFR. CHC MAINLY AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...CAPITAL REGION...NORTHERN CATSKILLS...AND BERKSHIRES...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HOT...BREEZY...AND DRY WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND
THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 80-100
PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY. THE RH VALUES
WILL LOWER TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...TO
THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5
MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...NO WIDESPREAD
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HOT...BREEZY...AND DRY WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. AN IMPULSE IN THE
W/NW FLOW MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAS FOCUSED A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ FORMING OVER W-CNTRL PA. THE MCS IS FIRING
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 08Z-10Z. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WEAK
COOL AND WARM FRONT. OTHER ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND INTO THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY BTWN 08Z-10Z.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH
POCKETS UP TO A 1000 J/KG. MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED
WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF 0 TO -2C. H700-500 LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE
6.5 TO 7C/KM RANGE. SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA
BY 12Z. WE HAVE TRENDED IT QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W-CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LOT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 17C TO 20C RANGE. DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND H850 WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO
L90S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW MID 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ AND
U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS OF 1O TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
ADVISORY RANGE WITH THE LOWERING SFC DEWPTS AND RH VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL LATE JUNE EVENING IS
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AS A WEAK SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. RADITIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN
DACKS. THERE MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WE
PLACED IT IN NEAR ERN WINDHAM CTY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
SATURDAY...A NICE WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TO START...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MAY FOCUS ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
AND EAST. LIMITED INSTABILITY OF 500-100 J/KG IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM
AGAIN. THE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THE BEST
DEEP SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME..BUT A FEW COULD BE
STRONG IF GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
COULD REACH IN THE U80S TO L90S ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION WITH THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ENDING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MID
AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...AND
LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TO START THE DAY. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE
LEFT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN
QUESTION FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CONUS. SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE GFS
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE PERIOD WHICH INDICATES A DRIER FORECAST. SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST SIMPLE WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR OUR NEXT OF THE WOODS WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH...06Z/SATURDAY.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. BASED ON RADAR AND TRENDS HAVE CONVECTION IN
TAFS USING TEMPO GROUPS. THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN DECREASE. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KALB. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHC AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
MON...VFR. CHC MAINLY AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...CAPITAL REGION...NORTHERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HOT...BREEZY...AND DRY WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND
THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 80-100
PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY. THE RH VALUES
WILL LOWER TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...TO
THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5
MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...NO WIDESPREAD
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...MUDDLED SFC AND RADAR PICTURE THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM CNTRL NY AND PA ACROSS FCST
AREA. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER NRN NY AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AND MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH AND EAST OF ROCHESTER.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER NW PA...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT OR WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. THERE IS
A LOT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THIS EVOLVING MCS.
HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING E/SE. THIS CONVECTION MAY NEVER REACH OUR
AREA.
WE HAVE TRENDED MOST OF THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES...EXCEPT
CHANCE VALUES OVER THE SRN-WRN ADIRONDACKS. WE USED ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 06Z-12Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSES RATES DUE STEEPEN...AND THE SHOWALTER VALUES DO LOWER
TO 0 TO -2C. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS IMPLIED. THE AIR MASS IS
MORE STABLE IN THE ALY FCST AREA EASTWARD.
TEMPS WILL STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MTNS...AND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
THAT COOLED QUICKLY BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS MOVES IN.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
IN...AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT FURTHER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 90-95 IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FORTUNATELY...DECREASING DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SO
NO HEAT ADVISORIES PLANNED. IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-35 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS FROM
THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM DAYTIME MAXES...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MANY
AREAS.
SAT-SAT NT...SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...AND SOME WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED. OTHERWISE...IT WOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM SATURDAY...WITH
MAXES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE...SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SAT
NT...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE AND FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AT THIS POINT..THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS DON/T AGREE ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN/EARLY EVE
HOURS. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR DAY WHERE THE THREAT IS GREATER/LOWER...BUT THIS SHOULD
BE RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS BETTER FORECAST THESE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR SUNDAY. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS. TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID...ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PUT CONVECTION IN TAF. THE
WINDOW FOR IT TO OCCUR IS 08Z-13Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TODAY AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KALB. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT FRI AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND BERKSHIRES...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH WARMER AIR
WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL INTO THE
25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRI AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 80-100
PERCENT FOR FRI NT...WITH SOME DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-35
MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY...AND DECREASE TO 5-10
MPH.
WINDS MAY BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS A VERY WARM AIR
MASS MOVES IN. SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...MUDDLED SFC AND RADAR PICTURE THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM CNTRL NY AND PA ACROSS FCST
AREA. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER NRN NY AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AND MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH AND EAST OF ROCHESTER.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER NW PA...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT OR WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. THERE IS
A LOT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THIS EVOLVING MCS.
HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING E/SE. THIS CONVECTION MAY NEVER REACH OUR
AREA.
WE HAVE TRENDED MOST OF THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES...EXCEPT
CHANCE VALUES OVER THE SRN-WRN ADIRONDACKS. WE USED ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 06Z-12Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSES RATES DUE STEEPEN...AND THE SHOWALTER VALUES DO LOWER
TO 0 TO -2C. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS IMPLIED. THE AIR MASS IS
MORE STABLE IN THE ALY FCST AREA EASTWARD.
TEMPS WILL STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MTNS...AND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
THAT COOLED QUICKLY BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS MOVES IN.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
IN...AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT FURTHER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 90-95 IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FORTUNATELY...DECREASING DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SO
NO HEAT ADVISORIES PLANNED. IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-35 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS FROM
THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM DAYTIME MAXES...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MANY
AREAS.
SAT-SAT NT...SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...AND SOME WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED. OTHERWISE...IT WOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM SATURDAY...WITH
MAXES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE...SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SAT
NT...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE AND FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AT THIS POINT..THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS DON/T AGREE ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN/EARLY EVE
HOURS. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR DAY WHERE THE THREAT IS GREATER/LOWER...BUT THIS SHOULD
BE RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS BETTER FORECAST THESE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR SUNDAY. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS. TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID...ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. THE ONLY THREAT
FOR NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION HAVE LEFT THE PROB30 GROUP
FOR CONVECTION AT ALL THE TAF SITES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD (GENERALLY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z).
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NT...VFR/MVFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC MAINLY AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT FRI AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND BERKSHIRES...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH WARMER AIR
WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
THE RH WIL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL INTO THE
25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRI AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 80-100
PERCENT FOR FRI NT...WITH SOME DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-35
MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY...AND DECREASE TO 5-10
MPH.
WINDS MAY BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS A VERY WARM AIR
MASS MOVES IN. SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOL FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL TEND TO
STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT MAY THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO HEAT RELATED HEADLINES.
THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS INITIALIZATION WERE ABOUT THE SAME THIS MORNING
VS THE 00Z SOUNDING AND LOOKED MUCH BETTER AT 925MB NOW THAT THE
CORE OF THE HOT AIR MASS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST AND A LITTLE HIGHER
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO VERIFY 1-3C TOO WARM, MAKE
THAT HOT, WITH ITS 12HR 925MB FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
LAST NIGHT WE WERE WONDERING IF THE MCS WOULD HEAD NORTH
(KINEMATICS) OR SOUTH (THERMODYNAMICS). IN REALITY ITS LOOKING LIKE
NEITHER AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM ITS SURFACE BASED INFLOW, THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS FOLLOWING MORE THE 700MB FLOW AND THUS
HIEST CHANCES EARLY ARE CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON IT AS TO WHERE, EVEN IF ITS GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT IS A BIT TOO
MUCH. IMPRESSIVE BOW ECHO MOVING THROUGH STATE COLLEGE AREA, WE DID
CARRY SOME EARLY ENHANCED WORDING WEST. AT ONE TIME THIS CLUSTER HAD
ABOUT 1500 CG LTGNG STRIKES IN 15 MINUTES.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CAP AND CONSIDERABLE CIN
THAT SHOULD NEGATE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THE GFS AND NAM MOS PERFORMANCE TO OUR WEST, WE WENT WITH A
STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE. FOR PHL THE 00Z SAT FCST 1000-850MB GFS
FCST THICKNESS PRETTY MUCH MATCHES 100F TO OUR WEST. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDINESS DEBRIS EARLY, WE DID SLOW THE RISE OF TEMPS A BIT THIS
MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE DAYS DO NOT GET MUCH LONGER THAN NOW, WE DO
NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL PUT A DENT IN OUR MAX TEMP POTENTIAL.
DEW POINTS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE MORE OF A CONUNDRUM. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST TO WEST AT THE SURFACE, USUALLY A DRYING
DIRECTION. BUT THE DEW POINTS TO OUR WEST ARE HIGHER. THE GFS MODEL
SFC DEW POINT PROGS YESTERDAY AFTN WERE 10F TOO HIGH, APPLYING THE
SAME CORRECTION TODAY, GIVES US MOST AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE
60S, NOT THAT FAR FROM CURRENT STAT GUIDANCE. THUS THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT FOR OUR CWA. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG
SOUTH INTO OUR CWA WITH NOT MUCH COOLING EFFECT EXPECTED. THE
MESOSCALE MODELING IS PASSING ANOTHER REMNANT OF A MCS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA LATE. JUST LIKE TONIGHT, IT WILL AT
THE LEAST BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION, SO
LOW POPS WERE STARTED. FOR MIN TEMPS, A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE WAS
FOLLOWED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DAILY
FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MOSTLY SLGT CHC OR
LOW CHC POPS. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR AREA IN SLGT CHC FOR SVR
ON DAY2 (12Z SAT - 12Z SUN).
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
HIGH ALOFT RE-BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTY AND
A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXCESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
READINGS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. DAILY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
MON-WED IN THE GRIDS ATTM WITH LOW CONFID IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 06Z TAFS ARE GIVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDER MAKING IT
INTO THE KPHL, KILG AND KRDG TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING WITH NEAR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS. WE WILL AMEND AND ADD CHANCE TO KABE, KTTN AND KPNE
TO THE MIX. IMPRESSIVE SMALL COMPLEX OF TSTMS IN NWRN PA IS
PRODUCING AROUND 500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES EVERY 5
MINUTES AT ITS PEAK EARLIER. THE AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE ON OUR
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, SO WE WILL MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. LESS
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE TSTMS MAKING IT INTO THE OTHER TERMINALS IF AT
ALL, SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDED.
ONCE THIS CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
FORM THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN FACT, AS HARD AS IT IS TO
FATHOM, WE MAY NOT REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TODAY, SO
HARDLY ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. WEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF ALL OUR
NJ TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH GUSTINESS.
FOR THIS EVENING, NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOR ANY OF OUR TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS. DAYTIME HZ AND
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING (MAINLY) THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS DURING TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AND GO WEST FOR A WHILE TONIGHT AS THAT WEAK FRONT BACKS INTO
OUR AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. SCT
TSTMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE THE
GREATEST HAZARD ON THE WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GFS ETSS STILL MODELS POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOOD EPISODES HERE
WITH THE EVENING TIDE CYCLES BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND CONTG
THRU AT LEAST JULY 3 FULL MOON WHEN ASTRO TIDE IS WITHIN .3 FT OF
THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION THRESHOLD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIKE YESTERDAY, MEAN RH(S) ARE EXPECTED TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY, OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS APPEARS LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS. FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING S SWELL TO 3 FEET
WITH A 8 SECOND PERIOD TODAY THAT CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF THE WIND AT BUOY 009 IS 180 OR 190 DEGREES, AND THEN WITH AN
INCREASINGLY LARGE RATE OF CHANGE IN TIDES AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE
FULL MOON EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOST RECENT YEAR
OF OCCURRENCE FOR JUNE 29 THROUGH JULY 1 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.
JUNE 29 JUNE 30 JULY 1
PHL 102 - 1934 100 - 1964 102 - 1901
ACY 98 - 1991 98 - 1991 99 - 1968
ILG 98 - 1959 98 - 1964 97 - 1963
ABE 99 - 1934 97 - 1964 97 - 1963
TTN 100 - 1934 98 - 1964 98 - 1945
RDG 99 - 1943 98 - 1964 101 - 1901
GED 99 - 1969 101 - 1959 98 - 1964
MPO 89 - 1944 90 - 1964 88 - 1968
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ067>071.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012-013-016-020>023-027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002-003.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI
MARINE...GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOL FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL TEND TO STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT MAY THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORT TERM UPDATE INCORPORATING LATEST HRRR ALONG WITH THE 00Z
WRF-NMMB THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR FINE TUNING, BASICALLY LOOKS
LIKE THE THERMODYNAMICS WIN OVER THE KINEMATICS WITH POPS ADJUSTED
LOWER TOWARD NYC AND HIER SWRN PART OF OUR CWA. SMALL MCS TAPPING
THE STILL WELL IN THE 80S AND UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN OHIO AND
HAS STRENGTHENED. WHILE THERE IS SUSTAINABILITY ALOFT, ITS GOING
TO BE OUTRUNNING THE BEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHORTLY. THE
FCST THETA E AND THERMODYNAMIC FEED SUGGEST MORE OF A SHARPER TURN
TO THE RIGHT. OTHERWISE DOWN THE ROAD THE HRRR AND NMM INFERRING
OUR ENVIRONMENT JUST NOT AS HOSPITABLE HERE. REGARDLESS ENOUGH OF
A SHORT WAVE TO KEEP CHANCES GOING, WILL MONITOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS TO SEE IF WE HAVE TO ADD ANY ENHANCED WORDING. TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAIN ON OR CLOSE TO SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TSTMS MOVE OUT TO SEA BY 12 OR 13Z AND THEN THE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES.
FRIDAY WILL FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AND I THINK BE
THE WORST ITS FELT HERE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.
NEAR RECORD HEAT...WITHIN 2F OF RECORD POSSIBLE BY 530 PM...
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS LOW 70S FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MAKE
FOR A VERY MUGGY DAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN, HOWEVER, THAT DEWPOINTS
MAY MIX OUT AND LOWER SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WE DO
HOWEVER EXPECT TO REACH OUR HEAT INDEX CRITERIA, AND THUS, THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS MAINTAINED FOR PHILADELPHIA AND ITS
SURROUNDING COUNTIES. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HEAT WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE REGION
MAY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY LOCAL CONVECTION AT TIMES.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN ELONGATED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TO
THE NORTH OF THIS, SOME TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WITH THIS FEATURE TRYING TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP RESULTS IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE, SOME
EMBEDDED WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND
GENERALLY HUMID THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THEN THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME
AND THIS SHOULD KNOCK DOWN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LURKING AROUND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY TRY AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES
INCLUDE THE CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT FOR A TIME, THE DEW POINTS, AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WE GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, THEN SWITCHED TO HPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER WITH SOME
TWEAKS BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION. HPC WENT WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN A GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS BLEND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THE HEAT WILL BE ON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT THE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH DRIER AIR ABOVE. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS WHICH INCLUDE WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND CONVECTIVE CHCS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT 925 MB
ARE AROUND +25C, WITH THE MAIN HEAT CORE FROM ABOUT VIRGINIA ON
SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO SHIFT MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT TIMES,
AND THIS TYPICALLY WOULD FAVOR HIGHER DEW POINTS. AN EXAMINATION OF
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES RATHER
HOT, ENOUGH MIXING FROM ABOVE OCCURS TO LOWER THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS. WE DO ANTICIPATE THE DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT AT LEAST SOME,
AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES MORE IN CHECK. DESPITE
THIS, IT WILL STILL BE RATHER HOT. OUR DEW POINT FORECAST IS MORE OF
A MODEL MOS BLEND AS THIS MESHES BETTER WITH REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDING HEADLINES, THE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY
FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA AS THE HEAT INDEX CRITERIA IS LOWER.
ELSEWHERE, WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY AS FORECAST DEW
POINTS ARE KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES UNDER CRITERIA. THIS WILL
BE REVISITED IN LATER FORECASTS. THE FLOW AROUND 925 MB IS FORECAST
TO BE GENERALLY WESTERLY AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, THEREFORE ANY SEA
BREEZE SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE FLOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS IN COMBINATION WITH A HOT AIRMASS, THERE COULD BE
A TENDENCY FOR SOME CAPPING ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ANY IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ELONGATED RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR IF
THIS IS COMPLETELY SURFACE BASED AS THE MCS THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS
LOOKS MORE ELEVATED BASED ON ITS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY IMPULSE ALONG WITH A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND HOW IT MAY PLAY A ROLE CARRIES SOME UNCERTAINTY, AND
ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE HEAT
/I.E. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND DEW POINT INFLUENCES/. THE GFS HAS HAD A
TENDENCY TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
/MOS IS LOWER/, THEREFORE THIS MAY HELP TO EXPLAIN MORE CONVECTIVE
OPPORTUNITIES INDICATED BY THIS MODEL AT TIMES. FOR NOW, SOME SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WERE CARRIED DURING PORTIONS OF THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES A
BIT INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO START LOWERING AND
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT SHOULD BACK DOWN SOME. THIS WILL ARRIVE BY A COOL
FRONT MONDAY THAT MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE
COULD BE SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERALL WITHIN MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT ROBUST WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT. THE GFS SHOWS
MORE AMPLIFICATION WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
MONDAY, HOWEVER FOR NOW WE KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK SOME, THE HEAT RELATED
HEADLINES WERE NOT EXTENDED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS A RATHER HOT AIRMASS FORECAST TO BE SITTING SOUTHWEST OF
THIS WARM FRONT AND IT MAY BE HELD THERE AS JUST ENOUGH TROUGHING
HOLDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THIS, THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. SINCE THERE COULD BE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
WARM FRONT, WE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE POPS ARE
UNDER SLIGHT CHC WEDNESDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 06Z TAFS ARE GIVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDER MAKING IT
INTO THE KPHL, KILG AND KRDG TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING WITH NEAR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPRESSIVE SMALL COMPLEX OF TSTMS IN NWRN PA IS
PRODUCING NEARLY 500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES EVERY 5
MINUTES. THE AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
APLCHNS, SO WE WILL MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT
THE TSTMS MAKING IT INTO THE OTHER TERMINALS IF AT ALL, SO WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED.
ONCE THIS CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
FORM THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN FACT, AS HARD AS IT IS TO
FATHOM, WE MAY NOT REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TODAY, SO
HARDLY ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. WEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF ALL OUR
NJ TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH GUSTINESS.
FOR THIS EVENING, NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOR ANY OF OUR TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE LOCAL SUB-VFR DUE TO FOG/HAZE DURING THE EARLY
MORNINGS. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING AND COVERAGE.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT NIGHT, THEN WESTERLY NEAR 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS COULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY LOCALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO ANY MARINE INFLUENCE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE, IT APPEARS THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, THEN A COUPLE OF COOL FRONTS
SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE
BOUNDARIES GENERALLY LOOK ON THE WEAKER SIDE, HOWEVER A WESTERLY
WIND SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS WILL BE HOT. AS A RESULT OF THE HOT AIRMASS, THE WINDS MAY
LOCALLY INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GFS ETSS STILL MODELS POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOOD EPISODES HERE
WITH THE EVENING TIDE CYCLES BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND CONTG
THRU AT LEAST JULY 3 FULL MOON WHEN ASTRO TIDE IS WITHIN .3 FT OF
THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION THRESHOLD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS APPEARS LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS. FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING S SWELL TO 3 FEET
WITH A 8 SECOND PERIOD FRIDAY THAT CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF THE WIND AT BUOY 009 IS 180 OR 190 DEGREES, AND THEN WITH AN
INCREASINGLY LARGE RATE OF CHANGE IN TIDES AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE
FULL MOON EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOST RECENT YEAR
OF OCCURRENCE FOR JUNE 29 THROUGH JULY 1 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.
JUNE 29 JUNE 30 JULY 1
PHL 102 - 1934 100 - 1964 102 - 1901
ACY 98 - 1991 98 - 1991 99 - 1968
ILG 98 - 1959 98 - 1964 97 - 1963
ABE 99 - 1934 97 - 1964 97 - 1963
TTN 100 - 1934 98 - 1964 98 - 1945
RDG 99 - 1943 98 - 1964 101 - 1901
GED 99 - 1969 101 - 1959 98 - 1964
MPO 89 - 1944 90 - 1964 88 - 1968
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ067>071.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012-013-016-020>023-027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002-003.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLINE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WHERE THERE IS SOME SPEED CONTINUING. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING FAIRLY QUICKLY AND
DEWPOINTS HIGH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY IN THE TAF
AND THINK THAT THE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW. STILL WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS THREAT
STILL LOOKS MINIMAL WITH BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
FROM 00Z...
LAKE BREEZE HAS STALLED AND BEGUN TO BE PUSHED SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS
THE LAKE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME
THEN BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING HINGE ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS IOWA/NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG INSTABILITY
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE/INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EASTWARD.
AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS BEEN MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WORK
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT EACH SITE WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA.
WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY TO
APPROACH THE TERMINALS AS WELL WHICH WOULD THEN HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST SO ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL
START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY TENDENCY THEN
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH SOMETIME SUNDAY
EVENING WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS SUNDAY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF SHIFTS. CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED FROM
EARLIER. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE AND
APPROACHING FRONT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME CROSSING THE AREA.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 TO
15 KT TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THESE PERIODS OF
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES TO DOMINATE THE WIND
FIELDS CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
716 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
* TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
* VARIABLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING TURN SOUTHWEST WITH
A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LAKE BREEZE HAS STALLED AND BEGUN TO BE PUSHED SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS
THE LAKE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME
THEN BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING HINGE ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS IOWA/NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG INSTABILITY
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE/INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EASTWARD.
AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS BEEN MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WORK
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT EACH SITE WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA.
WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY TO
APPROACH THE TERMINALS AS WELL WHICH WOULD THEN HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST SO ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL
START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY TENDENCY THEN
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH SOMETIME SUNDAY
EVENING WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS SUNDAY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC TIMING OF SHIFTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 TO
15 KT TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THESE PERIODS OF
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES TO DOMINATE THE WIND
FIELDS CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
307 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF PCPN AND LOCATION AS MOST
OF THE CWA SITS UNDER A HEAT DOME. OVERALL...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD AFFECT PCPN TIMING AND LOCATION
AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM...HRRR MODEL...LOOKS TO BE DOING QUITE WELL WITH LOCATION OF
SOME OF THESE SMALLER FEATURES AND RESULTING PCPN. SO THROUGH
TONIGHT WE WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR AND THEN SWITCH TO NAM-WRF/ECMWF.
GFS REMAINS TOO WET.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CONVECTION OUT OVER IOWA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO NRN IL. SO CHC POPS IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA INTO TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE NORTH
FOR TOMORROW. BEST SCIENTIFIC GUESS RIGHT NOW IS FOR THE FRONT TO
REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AND THEN SLOWLY PUSH
NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT AND REMAIN UP THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. SO WILL
KEEP CHC POPS NEAR THE FRONT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...REMAINING IN THE EXTREME NORTH PARTS OF THE
CWA...THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. 90S ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BUT
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP THEM DOWN A TAD. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL
BE NORTH WITH THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR DOWN WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS. THIS COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTHERN AREAS COULD STILL REACH TO
100 FOR HEAT INDEX...BUT WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THERE AS WELL. SO SINCE THIS WILL GO
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REACH 4 DAYS...HAVE CANCELLED REPLACED THE
ADVISORY WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. IF CRITERIA IS NOT BEING
REACHED IN THE NORTH...THEN LATER SHIFTS CANCEL AS THE NEED
ARISES. HEAT INDICES AT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 75 AS WELL.
COMPROMISED OF GUIDANCE LOOKS BEST AND RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE. PCPN IS POSSIBLE BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT. SO HAVE OPTED WITH DRY FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL BETTER SIGNALS SHOW WHEN PCPN WILL BE. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN WARM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WHICH IS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.
AUTEN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND MIXING BACK NORTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NEAR KBMI TO JUST NORTH OF KMQB. BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
THE 14Z HRRR FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS AT BOTH
KPIA AND KBMI THROUGH 20Z...THEN HAVE VEERED THE WINDS BACK TO
S/SW AT THOSE SITES AFTER 22Z. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN
WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. W/SW WINDS
WILL RESUME ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THINK THIS WILL MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE KILX
TERMINALS. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD COVER/WIND
DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY IMPACT THE
I-74 TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO
INCLUDE THESE POTENTIAL MESOSCALE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
ANOTHER EXTREMELY HOT DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...WITH 15Z TEMPS ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE SE KILX CWA. READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE A FEW CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
THE I-74 CORRIDOR LAST NIGHT IS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...KEEPING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPING STORM
COMPLEX TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE
HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 11Z HRRR SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND TAKE A TURN E/SE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT BY THE TIME
THIS HAPPENS THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MISS THE KILX CWA TO THE
N/NE...EVENTUALLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS
CONSIDERABLY...FEATURING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.
TEMP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 90S FAR NORTH AROUND LACON TO OVER 105 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND MIXING BACK NORTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NEAR KBMI TO JUST NORTH OF KMQB. BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
THE 14Z HRRR FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS AT BOTH
KPIA AND KBMI THROUGH 20Z...THEN HAVE VEERED THE WINDS BACK TO
S/SW AT THOSE SITES AFTER 22Z. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN
WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. W/SW WINDS
WILL RESUME ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THINK THIS WILL MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE KILX
TERMINALS. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD COVER/WIND
DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY IMPACT THE
I-74 TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO
INCLUDE THESE POTENTIAL MESOSCALE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
AT 06Z SFC FRONT HAD STALLED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER EAST TO NEAR
KPIA AND INTO NORTHERN IND. MID/UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS POOLED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OCCUPIED MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW WAS FARTHER
NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN
HIGH HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTION CHANCES IN RING OF
FIRE PATTERN ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS AS
MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NORTHERN CWA WILL
BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...SFC
BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK. HIGH
INSTABILITY...MODERATE SHEAR...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MCS/S AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH
MAY IMPACT OR STAY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS WILL
KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING PRIMARILY NORTH OF A CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC CENTRAL. A
STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STAY VERY HOT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT TODAYS READINGS MAY NOT BE FAR OFF
YESTERDAYS NUMBERS WHICH WERE 100+ FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS
COOL ONLY A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE MID
OR UPPER 90S NORTH AND LOW 100S SOUTH. APPARENT TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT WILL REQUIRE EXTENDING HEAT
ADVISORY TO 12Z SATURDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE IN LATER FORECASTS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UNFORTUNATELY NO PROSPECTS FOR A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EVEN FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD DRIVE MCS TRACK FARTHER NORTH LEAVING A DRY AND
HOT FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1034 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
ANOTHER EXTREMELY HOT DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...WITH 15Z TEMPS ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE SE KILX CWA. READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE A FEW CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
THE I-74 CORRIDOR LAST NIGHT IS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...KEEPING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPING STORM
COMPLEX TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE
HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 11Z HRRR SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND TAKE A TURN E/SE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT BY THE TIME
THIS HAPPENS THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MISS THE KILX CWA TO THE
N/NE...EVENTUALLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS
CONSIDERABLY...FEATURING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.
TEMP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 90S FAR NORTH AROUND LACON TO OVER 105 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-70.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
GENERALLY QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF VALID TIME.
HOWEVER...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS POSES
A RISK OF A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS KPIA/KBMI/KCMI. HOWEVER...
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO ABOVE A VICINITY MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
AT 06Z SFC FRONT HAD STALLED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER EAST TO NEAR
KPIA AND INTO NORTHERN IND. MID/UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS POOLED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OCCUPIED MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW WAS FARTHER
NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN
HIGH HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTION CHANCES IN RING OF
FIRE PATTERN ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS AS
MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NORTHERN CWA WILL
BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...SFC
BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK. HIGH
INSTABILITY...MODERATE SHEAR...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MCS/S AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH
MAY IMPACT OR STAY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS WILL
KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING PRIMARILY NORTH OF A CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC CENTRAL. A
STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STAY VERY HOT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT TODAYS READINGS MAY NOT BE FAR OFF
YESTERDAYS NUMBERS WHICH WERE 100+ FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS
COOL ONLY A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE MID
OR UPPER 90S NORTH AND LOW 100S SOUTH. APPARENT TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT WILL REQUIRE EXTENDING HEAT
ADVISORY TO 12Z SATURDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE IN LATER FORECASTS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UNFORTUNATELY NO PROSPECTS FOR A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EVEN FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD DRIVE MCS TRACK FARTHER NORTH LEAVING A DRY AND
HOT FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.AVIATION...
KEPT WITH PREVIOUS TAFS WITH OVERNIGHT PERIOD RATHER STAGNANT AS
INCREASED LL MSTR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. DROP IN VSBYS TO MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT
OVERALL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. WHILE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...MAIN ONE OF
CONCERN MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT. HAVE LEFT ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION OUT
OF TAFS WITH AT LEAST 2 MORE ISSUANCES BEFORE CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012/
UPDATE...
RED FLAG AND HEAT ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SURFACE BASED CAPE
IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM SEVERE CONVECTION OVER CHICAGO AREA...
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 433 UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM LAPORTE...
STARKE AND PULASKI COUNTIES...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACEMENT ALONG
THE EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE STARKE/PULASKI COUNTY
LINE.
EXPECT THAT AS THE OUTFLOW SURGES SOUTH...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH QUICKLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONT TO FAVOR CAUTIONARY APPROACH WRT
POTNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TERM FOR CWA. DESPITE INCSRG
INSTABILITY THIS AFT/EVE AS SFC DPS BEGIN TO POOL TO NEAR 70F ACRS
NWRN CWA THIS AFTN...FAVORED INITIATION REGIONS EXIST BOTH
DOWN/UPSTREAM. STILL MODELS SPCLY GFS CONTS TO FAIL TO CAPTURE
SIGNIFICANCE OF DRY GROUND/D3 DROUGHT CONDS THAT HAVE EMERGED ACRS
NRN IN AND CONT TO SHAVE SVRL DEGREES DOWNWARD. THIS AM NOTED
SHORTWAVE/700H JETLET GENERATED XTRMLY HIGH ELEVATED CONVECTION
INVOF KCID...THIS FEATURE TO PUSH INTO NWRN OH THIS EVE WITH CAP
SLOWLY DERIDED PER SPC RAP IN TANDEM WITH CONCEPTUAL MODEL
EXPECTATIONS...THOUGH EAST OF CWA. WELL WEST OF CWA WITHIN DCPVA
ZONE AMID OVERLAP ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER/LESS INHIBITED
INSTABILITY AXIS FM NWRN IL WWD INTO SERN NE WITH MLCAPE 4000-5000
J/KG AND SRN PERIPHERY OF HIR DEEP LYR /0-6KM/ SHEAR OF 40-55KTS TO
LKLY SUPPORT MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS PLAINS INTO INTO IA/MO
NEAR/AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY 925-850MB JET STRENGTHENS/NOSES ACRS CNTL
KS. ADDNL/CONTD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT ACRS IA/MO THROUGH DAYBREAK AS
ERN PERIPHERY OF LLJ VEERS. LACK OF ULVL JET SUPPORT ACRS CWA
FURTHER POINTS TO LIKEN DRY BEGETS DRY. FLATTENED RIDGE TO ALLOW
SHALLOW SFC FNTL ZONE TO SLIDE SEWD QUIETLY THROUGH CWA...WITH ZONE
OF RICH 0-0.5KM THETA-E LAID OUT FM NRN IL INTO CNTL IN ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVE CONVECTION INITIATION RELEGATED TO
ONLY SWRN CWA INVOF BNDRY WITH INCRSD UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE AS NRN
PLAINS UPR JETLET MOVES INTO SERN LWR MI/LWR GRTLKS COINCIDENT
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY /
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERTOP A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
POLAR JET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
STILL ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 90S EACH DAY AS 850 HPA TEMPS
GENERALLY STAY AOA 20C...WITH MID LVL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION BEING THE ONLY HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPS. AT THE SURFACE A
DIFFUSE/SHALLOW QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FCST TO HANG AROUND THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WWD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING NORTH OF THE AREA OR WASHING OUT BY MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR IOWA AS SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE (CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/INDUCED) SHORTWAVES CREST THE
REBUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. THESE POTENTIAL MCS COMPLEXES
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION AS THEY OUTRUN BETTER LOW
LVL FORCING (LLJ) AND DRY OUT OVER POORLY MODELED DRY LOW LEVELS
(MODELS OVERDOING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOIL MOISTURE WITH CLIMO BIAS AND
THEREFORE INSTABILITY/SFC DEWPOINTS/ETC). WITH THIS CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME AS THINK THE
BEST CASE SCENARIO IS FOR A MCV TO BRING HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE/NO DROUGHT RELIEF. ALSO EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
RE-DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG ANY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. AS A RESULT OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE (MAINLY NO WX MENTION) AS WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THIS PERIOD TO
BE DRY IN THIS ONGOING D1-D3 DROUGHT. THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL ROCKIES
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK WITH
HEIGHT RISES/WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY. TEMPS
COULD MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 100F BY DAYS 6/7.
AVIATION... /18 UTC TAFS/
DIFFICULT FCST THIS ITERATION...MAINTAIN PRIMARILY VFR TAFS WITH
POINT CONVECTIVE CHCS REMAINING BLO THRESHOLD FOR INCLUSION AS MLCIN
RMNS STOIC ACRS NRN IN THIS AFTN. HEIGHTENED CHCS FOR INITIATION
EXIST BOTH UP/DOWNSTREAM OF RGN LATER THIS EVENING...POTNLY
PROVIDING DRY FROPA LATER TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE OF NEAR SFC
HYGROSCOPIC POLLUTANTS AND SFC DP POOLING TO NEAR 70 MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR SUNRISE BR DVLPMNT. ZONE OF HIR SFC BASED INSTABILITY
THEREAFTER RELEGATED FM ERN IA INTO CNTL IN MIDDAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
AFTN...TAKING FOCUS AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RECORD BREAKING HEAT SET TO ARRIVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AS DEEP UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOT
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL HAVE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO A SLIVER OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY THAT A MENTION IS PROBABLY NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
GOING FORECAST WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS
REQUIRED.
SMALL COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY THREATEN TO CROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT SUSPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY DIE AS
THEY BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 16C. IN
FACT...THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FIRE DANGER CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON THE HEAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER (AGAIN DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE
SECTION BELOW). AS THE HEAT RIDGE SLOWLY SINKS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL CHALLENGES REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS WEAK BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO THE REGION.
POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE IMPRESSIVE HEAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT INTO THE REGION INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL VARIABLES INTO THE FORECAST THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTS
POTENTIALLY ON TEMPS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS TO CONSIDER. WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER HIGHLIGHTED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS SOME MOISTURE POOLING DEVELOPS
IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...STRONGLY SUSPECT MODELS ARE STILL
OVERDOING AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH DAYS. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...THIS KIND OF HEAT IS GENERATING ABUNDANT INSTABILITY ABOVE
THE INVERSION AND SHOULD THE CAPPING WEAKEN ENOUGH EITHER DAY...
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES COULD DEVELOP AND RIDE THE RIDGE PERIPHERY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPACTING NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE LIMITING
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...WILL CARRY NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE TO GREENSBURG LINE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
SINKING A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION DO INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMP FORECASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT STILL FEEL
PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST OPTION AT THIS POINT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER BOTH DAYS THAN TODAY DUE TO THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE. TEMPS...WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHLIGHTED PROBLEMS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS EXPERIENCING WITH SAMPLING BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE METMOS...AND HAVE GENERALLY
BUMPED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BOTH DAYS.
RECORD HIGHS AT INDY WILL BE THREATENED BOTH DAYS. ALSO TO
NOTE...INDIANAPOLIS HAS ONLY HAD CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 100 OR HIGHER
IN JUNE HAPPEN ONCE IN RECORDED HISTORY...FROM JUNE 28-30 1934. AM
FORECASTING 101 ON FRIDAY AND NEAR 100 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
INDY. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT AND IF SO...
WHEN TO HAVE THUNDERSTORM POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED ON
WITH THE SEVERE DROUGHT IN PROGRESS.
AGREE WITH THE PMDEPD FROM HPC IN THROWING THE 12Z GFS OUT WHICH
PLACES CENTRAL INDIANA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE RIDING QPF. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND OTHERS SPREAD THE PLAINS RIDGE FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE ONGOING DROUGHT WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A DRY FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION AND DEW POINTS
A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS FROM DISSIPATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SITES
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG
MENTION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY...AND CU RULE IS STRONGLY POSITIVE. THUS JUST SOME SCT
CIRRUS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE CONDITIONS
WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT MAY REQUIRE ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER WORDING...ALONG A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
ALL TIME - 106 (7/14/1936...7/21/1934...7/22/1901)
JUNE - 104 (6/28/2012)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN/SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP/50
FIRE...SMF/NIELD
CLIMATE...RYAN/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN IMPLIED 850MB WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WAS POOLING
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HAS THE MORNING CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH
NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF AN MCV IN WESTERN IOWA.
TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS CONVECTION
SLOWLY GETTING STRONGER.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS IS EXTREMELY NOISY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
FEATURES. A WAKE LOW WAS NEAR KRFD WITH A MESO LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE KDSM METRO AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE KDSM LOW TO NEAR KTVK. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
60S WITH POCKETS OF 70 DEW POINTS IN WESTERN IOWA AND ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NONLINEAR PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WX. AS SUCH
ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WERE USED HEAVILY FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. INPUT FROM RAP MODEL TRENDS USING THE MCS AND
LIFT TOOLS HELPED A LITTLE TOO.
TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. MCS TOOL SUGGESTS THE COLLISION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE MESO LOW WILL INITIATE
CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SAID
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT MOVES EAST AND
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL ENERGY BUILT UP IN THE CLEAR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO BECOME QUITE STRONG. SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NEW
CONVECTION. TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE KEY TO WHAT
HAPPENS.
LATER TONIGHT...THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER
MCS WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD DICTATE
WHERE THIS CONVECTION GOES. REGARDLESS...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS. IF THIS MCS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED...THE
DIFFERENTIAL THETA E SUGGESTED IN THE MODELS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS WITH WIND...POSSIBLY EXTREME...BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THIS SECOND MCS SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE OR EXITING THE CWFA
SATURDAY MORNING. COLD POOLS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MCS ALONG WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WOULD THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THE HEAT HEADLINES...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION
THIS MORNING HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES BUT
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY RESULT IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY BEING CANCELLED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. ..08..
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY.
OVERVIEW...CONCERNS OF NON-LINEAR CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY AND DISCUSSED YESTERDAY TO REMAIN A MAJOR
CHALLENGE INTO MONDAY.
INITIALIZATION ADEQUATE WITH VERIFICATION SUGGESTING AN OVERWEIGHT OF
GFS AND NAM-WRF. CONVECTION THIS PM AND TONIGHT WILL IMPACT NEXT
ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES...JUST LIKE TODAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO CLARIFY BEYOND 6-12 HOURS AHEAD DUE TO
NON-LINEAR NATURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IMPACTING SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTION EVENTS. HIGH TO EXTREME STABILITY IS STILL INDICATED INTO
MONDAY WITH MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 4000+ J/KG...MAX DIFFERENTIAL THETA_E
OF 30C...POSSIBLY MORE AND WBZ 12-14K AGL SUPPORTIVE OF RISK OF
DAMAGING TO VERY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS MAY SEE REPORTS OF 80+ MPH WINDS NEAR OR IN OUR FORECAST AREA
DUE TO THIS HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. THIS HAS NOW OCCURRED TODAY
WITH OUR CONVECTION THIS MORNING NOW MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA AS A BOWING SYSTEM AND IS BECOMING A DERECHO WITH FORT WAYNE
AIRPORT REPORTING MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 79 KTS...OR 91 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPED POPS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION SUGGESTED...MAINLY FOR SOUTH 1/2 OF AREA. KEY WILL BE
STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW FROM MCS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTH SECTIONS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OF COOL POOL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS 90
DEGREES AND POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S FOR LATER SHIFTS ON SUNDAY.
MINS SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS. HIGH PW/S OF OVER 1.5 UP TO 2 INCHES AND
WEAKER STEERING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 PLUS
INCHES FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY 3+ INCHES WITH
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE T-BONE OF WARM ADVECTION WING OF
STORMS AHEAD OF A MAIN BOWING LINE. IF WE GET GOOD LATE PM HEATING
THEN CONCERN REMAINS OF A DECENT AREA OF STRONG WINDS WITH A BOWING
SEGMENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE EARLIER DUE TO HIGH/EXTREME INSTABILITY.
HEAT INDICES IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY PUSH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM...POOR CONFIDENCE
HERE DUE TO EVIDENCE OF WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER MCS THAT SOLUTIONS OFTEN POORLY CAPTURE. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO AGAIN UP POPS AND ADJUST HI TEMPERATURES DOWN AS
THE CASE THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AREA TO REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF OUR
NORMAL MID SUMMER "RING OF FIRE" WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDING. KEPT
MOSTLY DRY BUT A LOW RISK OF CONVECTION REMAINS THAT MAY PROPAGATE
OR FIRE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS WITH
AGAIN STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. HI
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH AND LOWS MOSTLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 95
TO 100 DEGREES SUGGESTED FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS. EVIDENCE OF A
BREAK IN THE HEAT TO DEVELOP BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
NICHOLS
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012/
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TSRA SHOULD ARRIVE AT KBRL SHORTLY WITH
GUSTY WINDS. OTHER THAN CHANGEABLE WINDS VFR WX SHOULD BE SEEN
THROUGH 00Z/30. MORE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP IN CENTRAL IOWA AND
MOVE EAST TO ILLINOIS 21Z/29 TO 03Z/30 CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SEVERE TSRA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFT 00Z/30 WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSRA...POSSIBLY SEVERE...AFT 06Z/30. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-
JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
08/NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.AVIATION...
SFC FRONT IS STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL AND
WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI EVE. TSRA CHCS
ARE PRESENT AT TERMINALS THROUGHOUT PD WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY BUT
VERY TOUGH TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND LOCATION. CONVECTION OVER NE/KS
IS TIED TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF CO. W-E CLOUD
BAND NEAR AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF I-80 MAY DEVELOP
INTO SHRA/TSRA LATER TNGT INTO FRI AM IF LOW LEVEL JET CAN VEER
AS MODELS SUGGEST ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT HANDLING NE/KS CONVECTION
WELL AND SO HAVE SOME CONCERN JET COULD STAY ANCHORED TO THIS
CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING CLOUDS OF 3500-5000 FT AGL BLOSSOMING IN
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IA VICINITY OF ELEVATED CONVERGENT AXIS AND
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO CONVECTION NEXT FEW HRS.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLORADO WAVE THAT MAY BRING
BETTER CHCS OF TSRA LATE FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT. HOWEVER... HOW
EVENTS UNFOLD OVRNGT/FRI AM WILL HAVE IMPACT ON PCPN LAYOUT LATE
AND SO OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THIS SECONDARY AND PERHAPS BETTER CHC
LAST 6-10 HRS IN TERMINALS FOR NOW. MOISTURE AXIS NEAR/S OF I-80
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL FUEL FOG AND HAZE... AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS. IN ADDITION ANY STORMS NEXT
24 HRS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012/
UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM HEAT ADVISORY OVER NORTHEAST IA AND
NORTHWEST IL... AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES MOVING IN ALLOW GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. ZFP/GRID UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT. OTRW...
CHCS STILL EXIST FOR STORMS OVRNGT... ESPECIALLY AFT 09Z AND
CONTINUING FRI AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE FROM CO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012/
UPDATE...
SENT ZFP/GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE NORTHEAST IA COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM HEAT ADVISORY... AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS
BRINGING MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PROGRESS OF LOW LEVEL DRYING TNGT FOR ADDITIONAL CHGS TO
HEAT ADVISORY. LATEST FEW RUNS OF RAP MODEL HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DEWPTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S AND 60S DOWN TO I-80 IN EASTERN IA.
ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHC POPS HWY 20 CORRIDOR THIS EVE WITH THE
DRIER AIR. CHANCE OF STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE OVERNIGHT AND
FRI MORNING AS NEXT IMPULSE OVER CO MOVES E/NE AROUND PERIPHERY OF
HEAT DOME AND INTO AREA WHILE INTERACTING WITH STALLING FRONTAL
ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR
PCPN SHOULD IT DEVELOP APPEARS TO BE HWY 30 TO HWY 34... BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD SOME DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
DRIER AIR. SEVERE THREAT EXISTS WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY... WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH MID AND UPPER TEEN DEW POINTS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF IT. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF ACCAS
AND SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
FROM WISCONSIN INTO NEBRASKA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW JUST EAST OF KMKE WITH ANOTHER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT RAN IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
DEW POINTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.
DEW POINTS DROPPED OFF QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NONLINEAR PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WX WHICH RESULTS
IN LOW MODEL PREDICTABILITY.
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION/INTERPOLATION OF SFC OBS...IT APPEARS THE
HEAT ADVISORY VERIFIED FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES...SOUTH OF HWY 20...WHEN USING
DATA FROM RWIS SITES.
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THE ACCAS AND SFC BASED CU DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AGITATED. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BUT WILL
INCLUDE SCHC POPS IN THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING IN CASE
SOMETHING DEVELOPS.
THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
AN EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTH 40 PERCENT OF THE CWFA FOR FRIDAY.
ALL OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HEAT HEADLINES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWFA WILL
PROBABLY BE CANCELLED LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
USING CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND SATELLITE DATA...AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF KOMA BY MIDNIGHT. THE OVERALL FLOW SHOULD TAKE
IT GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 FAVORED. CONVECTION WOULD BE ELEVATED. A NEGATIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS THAT THE LLJ IS NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT.
ASSUMING CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND MOVE AS SUGGESTED BY THE
TRACK OF VORT MAXES...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE OVER THE CWFA
FRIDAY MORNING. BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS AND AN APPROACHING VORT
MAX...LIKELY FROM ANOTHER MCS...SHOULD INITIATE DIURNAL CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWFA.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD GET INTERESTING.
DIFFERENTIAL THETA E LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY LARGE. SO...STORMS
THAT DEVELOP COULD BE OF THE PULSE SEVERE TYPE WITH WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. 08
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOST...IF NOT ALL DAYS.
OVERVIEW...CHALLENGING FORECAST OF WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION OCCURS.
INITIALIZATION GOOD WITH NORMAL PROBLEMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
THAT HAVE PLAGUED MOST GUIDANCE THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO MONTHS.
VERIFICATION AT 18Z SUGGESTS USING FORCING OF MAINLY A MIX OF
GFS/NAM/HI-RES ECMWF. THIS IS A TYPICAL SUMMER PRECIPITATION REGIME
OF VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE OF EPISODES OF CONVECTION..BUT PROBABLY POOR
ON TIMING AND LOCATION BEYOND 6-12 HOURS AHEAD DUE TO NON-LINEAR
NATURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IMPACTING SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION. HIGH
TO EXTREME STABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 4000+ J/KG...MAX
DIFFERENTIAL THETA_E OF 30C OR MORE AND WBZ 12-14K AGL SUPPORTIVE OF
RISK OF DAMAGING TO VERY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS COULD SEE REPORTS OF 80+ MPH WINDS NEAR OR IN OUR
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST DAYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MINOR CHANGES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
IN NORTH 1/2 TO 2/3 AREA DUE TO STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH PORTIONS.
LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PW/S OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND WEAKER STEERING SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 PLUS INCHES FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER. BEST
FORCING SUGGESTED TO OCCUR ALONG HIGHWAY 30 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES. CONCERN OF A
DECENT AREA OF STRONG WINDS AS MENTIONED EARLIER DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS AROUND 90 NORTH
TO MIDDLE 90S SOUTH. NORTH SECTION HIGHS COULD BE LOWER BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH COOL POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HEAT INDICES IN SOUTH MAY
REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN OF TRAINING OF
STORMS THAT COULD ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS (AOA 3 INCHES)
ALSO FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH HYDRO
CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION SUGGESTED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE OF LOCATION/S FOR LATER
SHIFTS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/IES THAT SHOULD
RESULT IN A DIFFERING LOCATION FOR UPDRAFT FORCING AND RAINFALL. MCS
GENERATION TOOL SUPPORTS WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY A FURTHER SOUTH
TREND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO PRECIPITATION ATTM. SIMILAR RISKS OF SEVERE
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AGAIN IMPACTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY LOWER BY UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL
OR NORTH SECTIONS. SOUTH SECTIONS COULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 DEGREES THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREA ON EDGE OF TYPICAL MID SUMMER
"RING OF FIRE" WITH LOWER RISK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY PROPAGATE INTO
AREA WITH NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AT THE GREATEST RISK. THERE
WILL REMAIN A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH STRONG WINDS DUE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES LITTLE CHANGED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 90 TO 95
DEGREES AND LOWS MOSTLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
95 TO 100 DEGREES SUGGESTED.
NICHOLS
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-
HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-
WHITESIDE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 208 PM
CDT THU JUN 28 2012
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY DIFFERS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE NAM, RAP,
AND HRRR BUT ALL MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE TODAY. GIVEN THIS
BOUNDARY LOCATION AS OF 19Z AND SOME HINTS OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO AHEAD AND
INSERT A MENTION OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. GIVEN THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY.
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS MIXED LAYER HEIGHT AND 700MB TEMPERATURES AT
00Z SATURDAY PLUS A SUPER SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
HIGHS OF 105 TO 108 WERE STILL ON TRACK. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL GIVE RISE TO
FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME AM LEANING
TOWARDS ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF 183 BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. A FEW HIGH BASED AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. INSTABILITY HOWEVER
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IF A FEW STORMS DO
DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND A LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BLENDED
THE FORECAST TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRY AND HOT.
THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SUNDAY AS 850-700 HPA TEMPERATURES
COOL SLIGHTLY AS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE
...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MAXES
IN THE 99-102 DEG F RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 70S DEG F. WITH SUCH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL MIXED AND DRY ATMOSPHERE EACH DAY SO EVEN IF A
STORM WOULD TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE STRETCHES FROM COLORADO TO TENNESSEE, WITH LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE COLORADO ROCKIES. A SMALL SHORT WAVE IS
TRAVELING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, TRIGGERING A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 09Z,
BUT THE KGCK TAF WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN A TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT, BUT
INCREASE FRIDAY MID-MORNING TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 105 73 100 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 73 103 73 100 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 73 103 71 99 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 74 103 72 100 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 75 105 75 101 / 10 10 10 10
P28 76 105 75 100 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1005 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD OVER KENTUCKY WITH
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY AS SEEN ON
MOSAIC RADAR. ONE OF THESE HELPED SET OFF A SERIES OF STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOTT COUNTY ON EAST THROUGH PIKE COUNTY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. A FEW CELLS REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE EAST IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS UNDERWAY...THOUGH
WITHOUT THE OUTFLOW COOLED AIR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
ENJOYED LAST EVENING. WITH PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY SEEING SOME DECENT
RAINS THIS EVENING HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS TOWARD DAWN. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF MOST OF THE CWA...HAVE GUIDED POPS AND WX
SIMILARLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ALSO TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPERATURES...AND
ESPECIALLY THE DEWPOINTS...FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD HAVE BEEN SENT WITH A NEW ZFP FOR THE
EAST ON THE WAY...AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AND FOR
AN MCS TO FORM AND MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE TEMPERATURE HAS PROBABLY PEAKED...HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY ANOTHER DAY.
THIS SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE WORD COOL WILL
NOT BE SEEN IN A FORECAST ANYTIME SOON.
THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN IS WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE ABLE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE NAM BUFFER FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING MIXING UP TO ABOUT 20K FEET.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
IS MORE LIKE WHAT IS SEEN IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...AS MEASURED BY THE CAPE...WAS SHOWING 5500 JOULES AT NOON.
THIS IS THE HIGHEST VALUES I HAVE EVER SEEN IN KENTUCKY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT IT TAPERS TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT 2000 JOULES AT 8 PM. IN
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...THE MISSING INGREDIENT TENDS TO BE A
MECHANISM TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION APPEARS TO BE LATER IN THE EVENING AROUND
10 OR 11 PM. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MAX OF OMEGA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THAT TIME. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOMETHING TO FORM
EARLIER...BUT THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EASTERN KY WILL BE ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE TROF IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED STATES. AS
SUCH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
IDEA...WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN 20 PERCENT AT
TIMES. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTREME HEAT WILL EASE AS 8H TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FROM TUESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME TEMPO MVFR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST AND IMPACT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER
THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS OF MAINLY PIKE COUNTY THAT
ACTUALLY MAY HAVE SEEN SOME RAIN. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THOUGH WESTERLY AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR A TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPERATURES...AND
ESPECIALLY THE DEWPOINTS...FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD HAVE BEEN SENT WITH A NEW ZFP FOR THE
EAST ON THE WAY...AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AND FOR
AN MCS TO FORM AND MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE TEMPERATURE HAS PROBABLY PEAKED...HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY ANOTHER DAY.
THIS SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE WORD COOL WILL
NOT BE SEEN IN A FORECAST ANYTIME SOON.
THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN IS WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE ABLE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE NAM BUFFER FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING MIXING UP TO ABOUT 20K FEET.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
IS MORE LIKE WHAT IS SEEN IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...AS MEASURED BY THE CAPE...WAS SHOWING 5500 JOULES AT NOON.
THIS IS THE HIGHEST VALUES I HAVE EVER SEEN IN KENTUCKY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT IT TAPERS TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT 2000 JOULES AT 8 PM. IN
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...THE MISSING INGREDIENT TENDS TO BE A
MECHANISM TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION APPEARS TO BE LATER IN THE EVENING AROUND
10 OR 11 PM. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MAX OF OMEGA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THAT TIME. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOMETHING TO FORM
EARLIER...BUT THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EASTERN KY WILL BE ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE TROF IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED STATES. AS
SUCH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
IDEA...WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN 20 PERCENT AT
TIMES. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTREME HEAT WILL EASE AS 8H TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FROM TUESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME TEMPO MVFR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST AND IMPACT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER
THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS OF MAINLY PIKE COUNTY THAT
ACTUALLY MAY HAVE SEEN SOME RAIN. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THOUGH WESTERLY AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR A TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
610 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT THE SEVERE AND STRONG STORMS
THAT LOOK TO GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THESE WILL MOVE INTO A EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH
OUR NORTHEAST CWA WITH A LARGE GUST FRONT BRINGING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THEIR HISTORY TO THE NORTH. HAVE ADDED THESE
ATTRIBUTES TO THE PERTINENT GRIDS AND ZONES. ALSO BUILT UP THE WIND
GUSTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND KICKED DOWN TEMPS WITH THE LIKELY
RAIN/GUST FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TO TRY AND FORECAST
THE SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
TRY AND DETERMINE IF THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A MCS TYPE OF SYSTEM BARELY
EFFECTING THE AREA NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. CONSIDERING THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WISE TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. IT IS THE SAME SITUATION FOR TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT IS PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK. WE BROKE THE
THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR JACKSON AT 102 TODAY AND IT MIGHT EVEN GO UP
IN THE NEXT HOUR. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. LONDON ALSO HIT 102
TIED THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE AND BROAD AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS STRETCHING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE TN
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION...OR
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE EXTENDED IS...WITH A PROMINENT TROUGH
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND A SERIES OF RIDGE RUNNERS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WILL AN MCS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME OUR DROUGHT AND MAKE
IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AREA. AT THIS
POINT...THE MODELS HANDLE THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN QUITE WELL
BUT JUDGING PREVIOUS RUNS COMPARED HOW THE PATTERN HAS PANNED OUT IN
THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE...AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED RAIN
ACCORDING TO THE PAST RUNS HAVE NOT COME TO PASS. THIS PROVIDES A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED AND GIVEN
THE FACT THAT A STRONG TO DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. DESPITE BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOWING CONVECTION UNDER THE
CAP...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST. WILL RUN THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO GO ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THE RESULT.
AFTER THE PRODUCING THE MODEL ALL BLEND AND COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PRODUCING QPF IN THE
EXTENDED UNDER THE CAP AND THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AIDED IN
THIS DECISION. BETTER INTERROGATION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER RUNS IF
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN BUT SOME BETTER SUPPORT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU INTO THU NIGHT THAT MAY PUT
DOWN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN BUT AT THIS POINT...FELT A DRY FORECAST
WOULD BE A BETTER REPRESENTATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT WLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
737 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. HWVR...FCST PKG WILL
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
CONVECTION CONTS TO FIRE OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. THESE CELLS WILL BE
ENTERING PTNS OF THE WRN MTNS OF ME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HAVE UPPED
POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO RAISE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL.
PREV DISC...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE IN NORTHERN
MAINE. HOWEVER I CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS CU DISSIPATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND SLOW. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND
90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS. SUNDAY SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF MOVES SLOWLY THRU MONDAY WITH A WEAK SFC TROF MOVING
THRU WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS. BOTH SYSTEMS
MOVE E MONDAY NGT ALLOWING UPR LVL HEIGHTS TO RISE ALONG WITH
WARMER AIR MOVING IN AS INDICATED BY H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND
PLUS 15C BY TUESDAY EVENING. THUS DRY BUT VERY WARM DAY ON
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPR LVL TROF MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT AS A SFC
CD FNT MOVES THRU PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND TSTMS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE E EARLY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR RETURNS. MUCH WARMER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY WITH PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.
AN UPR LVL TROF AND SFC FNT MOVE IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY NGT AND
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NGT BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF
SHRA AND TSTMS.
GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NGT. FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST USED GMOS...EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT LEB AND HIE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ANY ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND
TSTMS MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY COULD LOWER CIG/VSBY TO MVFR OR
IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS. NO FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK WX SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE FCST AREA THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
724 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. HWVR...FCST PKG WILL
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
CONVECTION CONTS TO FIRE OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. THESE CELLS WILL BE
ENTERING PTNS OF THE WRN MTNS OF ME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HAVE UPPED
POPS IN THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO RAISE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL.
PREV DISC...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE IN NORTHERN
MAINE. HOWEVER I CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS CU DISSIPATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND SLOW. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND
90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS. SUNDAY SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF MOVES SLOWLY THRU MONDAY WITH A WEAK SFC TROF MOVING
THRU WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS. BOTH SYSTEMS
MOVE E MONDAY NGT ALLOWING UPR LVL HEIGHTS TO RISE ALONG WITH
WARMER AIR MOVING IN AS INDICATED BY H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND
PLUS 15C BY TUESDAY EVENING. THUS DRY BUT VERY WARM DAY ON
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPR LVL TROF MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT AS A SFC
CD FNT MOVES THRU PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND TSTMS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE E EARLY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR RETURNS. MUCH WARMER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY WITH PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.
AN UPR LVL TROF AND SFC FNT MOVE IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY NGT AND
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NGT BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF
SHRA AND TSTMS.
GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NGT. FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST USED GMOS...EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT LEB AND HIE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ANY ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND
TSTMS MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY COULD LOWER CIG/VSBY TO MVFR OR
IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS. NO FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK WX SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE FCST AREA THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
441 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST WITH THIS UPDATE. POP
LOOKS GOOD FOR AREAS OF CURRENT CONVECTION.
CONDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCT STRONG TSTMS ACROSS THE
NRN AND ERN CWA. LARGE RESERVOIR OF DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS. ALOFT...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING PLENTIFUL CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER...AND LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL.
WIND SHIFT HAS ENTERED THE CWA...WITH TSTMS FORMING ALONG IT. SO
FAR THEY HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH CONTINUITY...IN
BOTH HGT AND STRENGTH. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SFC DEW
POINTS ARE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL TO OVERCOME THE VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT...AND A SMALL CAP REMAINS. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH DYNAMIC
COOLING TO ERASE THAT REMAINING CAP...AND FOR THAT REASON WILL
MAINTAIN THE SVR WORDING IN THE GRIDS. PRES FALLS WOULD SUPPORT
THE GREATEST RISK RUNNING FROM THE WHITE MTNS TO THE MIDCOAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF MONTREAL
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS OF 1830Z AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS VERMONT AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN VT
OR NRN NH BY 20Z...THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS
AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE BY 21-22Z. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SRN ME...BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN THAT POSSIBILITY AS THAT AREA WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE SHORT WAVE FORCING. GIVEN THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DO INDEED DEVELOP AND CAN SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ME DUE TO
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-ZERO
DESPITE STORM MOTIONS LIKELY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 20 KT. ANY
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED BY TRAINING OF STORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA BY 00-01Z. THEREAFTER...FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES WHERE LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SKIMS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. ISOLD STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THERE WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE DESPITE LESSER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY.
CLEARING THEN TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH RESULTS IN
THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH BECOME
ENHANCED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY SHORTWAVES. TIMING OF THESE
SHORTWAVES IS VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS A RESULT WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER FOR
SUNDAY..HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM BUT NOT GETTING INTO THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH OF
THE EAST WILL SEE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SOME LOCAL FOG/MIST IS LIKELY
AT NORMALLY PRONE TERMINALS. VFR FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
IN ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR MID COAST OF MAINE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS FOR
TONIGHT FOR SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
&&
$$
LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF MONTREAL CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AS OF 1830Z AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS VERMONT AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN VT
OR NRN NH BY 20Z...THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS
AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE BY 21-22Z. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SRN ME...BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN THAT POSSIBILITY AS THAT AREA WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE SHORT WAVE FORCING. GIVEN THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DO INDEED DEVELOP AND CAN SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ME DUE TO
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-ZERO
DESPITE STORM MOTIONS LIKELY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 20 KT. ANY
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED BY TRAINING OF STORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA BY 00-01Z. THEREAFTER...FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES WHERE LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SKIMS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. ISOLD STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THERE WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE DESPITE LESSER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY.
CLEARING THEN TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH RESULTS IN
THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH BECOME
ENHANCED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY SHORTWAVES. TIMING OF THESE
SHORTWAVES IS VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS A RESULT WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER FOR
SUNDAY..HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM BUT NOT GETTING INTO THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH OF
THE EAST WILL SEE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SOME LOCAL FOG/MIST IS LIKELY
AT NORMALLY PRONE TERMINALS. VFR FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
IN ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR MID COAST OF MAINE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS FOR
TONIGHT FOR SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS INTO
QUEBEC...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SEASONAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER...ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...AS
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL THRU THE 60S JUST AFTER SUNSET. AREA OF
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUD IS NOW JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND WILL BE
STEADILY TRACKING THRU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MODIFIED
SKY FORECAST TO TIME THIS AREA OF CLOUDS THRU...ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL ENTIRE OUR CWA BY AROUND SUNRISE...WITH SOME
WEAK/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY
LATE MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM COOLING
INTO THE 50S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
ASIDE FROM A FEW FAIR WX CU LINGERING EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC
REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THANKS TO A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. IR
SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW AN AREA OF SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN WISCONSIN
STEADILY TRACKING SE TOWARD OUR CWA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CLOUDS
WILL NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AS WINDS BECOME CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS...
STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S. NICE MID
SUMMER SLEEPING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
STALLED FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WEAKISH HIGH PRESSURE AND W/NW FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SPOTTY CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT
BUT NOTHING TOO LARGE OR VIGOROUS AT THE MOMENT. FURTHER NORTH...CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH SOME CU OVER NE
LOWER AND UPPER MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF OLD CONVECTION ADVANCING
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD (REMNANT OF OLD
CONVECTION) ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED. SIMILAR LOW TEMPS AS LAST NIGHT...UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.
SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH 700 MB TEMPS COOLING A GOOD 3 DEGREES. JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTER UPPER AND/OR NE LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THANKS TO
LAKE BREEZES AND PREVAILING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
PATTERN TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF
UNFOLDING...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS
CONFIRMING HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE OF SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PLAINS
RIDGING BOOKENDED BY EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGH AXES. INITIAL
SCORCHER OF A HEAT DOME LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST...KEEPING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TIED ALONG TIGHT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. MOUNTING
EVIDENCE AT LEAST A PIECE OF CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT WILL EXPAND
(ATTEMPT TO?) NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES MID AND LATE WEEK...WHICH FROM
A CONCEPTUAL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE...SETS THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. OF COURSE...
WHOLE FORECAST REMAINS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY...A MANIFESTATION OF
EXACT THERMAL GRADIENT CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOLS
ACTING UPON IT. FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CENTERED ON TRYING TO
SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE ABOVE.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN IMMEDIATELY AS WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST LAKES MONDAY EVENING. SOME EVIDENCE THIS MAY SUPPORT
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN STELLAR DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ARGUES OTHERWISE. IN ADDITION...ANY POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO RIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES PER
PROPAGATION VECTORS. PERSONAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS TURNED IN RECENT
WEEKS GIVEN ONGOING DRY SPELL...AND SIMPLY NEED TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE
BEFORE "CLOUDING" THE FORECAST WITH ADDITIONAL LOW END POP CHANCES.
AT LEAST MORE CONFIDENCE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO MID WEEK AS HEAT EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES...FORCING THERMAL/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO OUR AREA AS IT
DOES SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY LATE MONDAY NIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO RIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY HANGS UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL SOME CONCERNS JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE...WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET TIED TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXACT MOVEMENT
ALSO RAISES SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...WITH GUIDANCE OFTEN OVERLY
AMBITIOUS DRIVING STORMS NORTH IN SUCH A REGIME AS THEY ARE UNABLE
TO RESOLVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OF COMBINED CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS.
WON`T GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND NORTHEAST...PERHAPS BRINGING WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS TO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE WOULD ALSO YIELD
A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...DISPLACING BETTER STORM POTENTIAL TO OUR
NORTH. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT RAIN THREAT. PLENTY OF TIME FOR FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WEAK
COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN...INCLUDING
APN...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SOME OFFSHORE GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY...AND LAKE BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
ALL SHORELINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
HIGHS AROUND 90 OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOW SO THE VERY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL MAINLY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PCPN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DIDN/T CHANGE THE FCST MUCH.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OHIO WWD THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD. HRRR AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE PLAINS CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
IOWA AND NRN ILLINOIS AROUND 12Z BEFORE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA MID MORNING. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE
FAR SW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IS PROGD TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
THUS CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE SLIM UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN CHANCES IMPROVE
A BIT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH OVER NRN LWR SUNDAY
AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH.
H8 TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN FRIDAY. THUS
WE/LL LIKELY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 VS MID TO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT WE WON/T HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY. THERE IS A SYSTEM THAT MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW HOT DOES IT GET? IS THE ECMWF MORE CORRECT
THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN? IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST OF THIS COMING
WEEK...WHILE IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE MID TO
UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS FOR
TEMPERATURES... THE 28TH 06Z MAV HAD 90F FOR GRR ON THURSDAY.... I
WOULD HAVE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE SO.
AS FOR THE UPPER AIR PATTERN... BOTH MODELS SHOW THE OVERALL
PATTERN NICELY AND SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE. THAT IS A LARGE
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND TROUGHS ON BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST. THE PROBLEM COMES IN AS
TO WERE THE POLAR JET WILL ACTUALLY BE? THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH
FLATTER EASTERN TROUGH (KEEPS THE COOLER AIR WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ALL WEEK) WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH
NEARER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
I AM FAVORING THE ECMWF AND IN SO DOING PUSHED OUR TEMPERATURE GRIDS
IN THAT DIRECTION BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. AS FOR OUR SHOWERS IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE
UPPER RIDGE. I WOULD LOOK FOR LIMITED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE THAN LIKELY IT WOULD SPLIT AND MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL GO SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN OR OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR UPPER
MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED VCTS AND CB TO THE KAZO... KBTL AND KJXN
TAFS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECTING THESE TO BE DISSIPATING
AS THEY PASS AND WENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER IN THE
SOUTH. THE NORTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS PREVALENT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVES TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
EXISTS SUNDAY...BUT BASIN QPF WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
HIGHS AROUND 90 OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOW SO THE VERY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL MAINLY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PCPN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DIDN/T CHANGE THE FCST MUCH.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OHIO WWD THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD. HRRR AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE PLAINS CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
IOWA AND NRN ILLINOIS AROUND 12Z BEFORE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA MID MORNING. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE
FAR SW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IS PROGD TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
THUS CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE SLIM UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN CHANCES IMPROVE
A BIT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH OVER NRN LWR SUNDAY
AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH.
H8 TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN FRIDAY. THUS
WE/LL LIKELY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 VS MID TO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT WE WON/T HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY. THERE IS A SYSTEM THAT MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW HOT DOES IT GET? IS THE ECMWF MORE CORRECT
THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN? IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST OF THIS COMING
WEEK...WHILE IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE MID TO
UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS FOR
TEMPERATURES... THE 28TH 06Z MAV HAD 90F FOR GRR ON THURSDAY.... I
WOULD HAVE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE SO.
AS FOR THE UPPER AIR PATTERN... BOTH MODELS SHOW THE OVERALL
PATTERN NICELY AND SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE. THAT IS A LARGE
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND TROUGHS ON BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST. THE PROBLEM COMES IN AS
TO WERE THE POLAR JET WILL ACTUALLY BE? THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH
FLATTER EASTERN TROUGH (KEEPS THE COOLER AIR WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ALL WEEK) WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH
NEARER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
I AM FAVORING THE ECMWF AND IN SO DOING PUSHED OUR TEMPERATURE GRIDS
IN THAT DIRECTION BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. AS FOR OUR SHOWERS IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE
UPPER RIDGE. I WOULD LOOK FOR LIMITED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE THAN LIKELY IT WOULD SPLIT AND MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL GO SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN OR OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR UPPER
MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
ONCE THE PATCHY FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE JXN TAF SITE (BY 13Z) I
EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PASS SOUTH OF I-94 TONIGHT BUT ALL THAT WILL DO THE TAFS IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IS BRING LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVES TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
EXISTS SUNDAY...BUT BASIN QPF WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
HIGHS AROUND 90 OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOW SO THE VERY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL MAINLY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PCPN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DIDN/T CHANGE THE FCST MUCH.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OHIO WWD THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD. HRRR AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE PLAINS CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
IOWA AND NRN ILLINOIS AROUND 12Z BEFORE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA MID MORNING. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE
FAR SW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IS PROGD TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
THUS CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE SLIM UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN CHANCES IMPROVE
A BIT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH OVER NRN LWR SUNDAY
AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH.
H8 TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN FRIDAY. THUS
WE/LL LIKELY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 VS MID TO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT WE WON/T HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY. THERE IS A SYSTEM THAT MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW HOT DOES IT GET? IS THE ECMWF MORE CORRECT
THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN? IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST OF THIS COMING
WEEK...WHILE IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE MID TO
UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS FOR
TEMPERATURES... THE 28TH 06Z MAV HAD 90F FOR GRR ON THURSDAY.... I
WOULD HAVE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE SO.
AS FOR THE UPPER AIR PATTERN... BOTH MODELS SHOW THE OVERALL
PATTERN NICELY AND SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE. THAT IS A LARGE
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND TROUGHS ON BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST. THE PROBLEM COMES IN AS
TO WERE THE POLAR JET WILL ACTUALLY BE? THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH
FLATTER EASTERN TROUGH (KEEPS THE COOLER AIR WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ALL WEEK) WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH
NEARER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
I AM FAVORING THE ECMWF AND IN SO DOING PUSHED OUR TEMPERATURE GRIDS
IN THAT DIRECTION BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. AS FOR OUR SHOWERS IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE
UPPER RIDGE. I WOULD LOOK FOR LIMITED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MORE THAN LIKELY IT WOULD SPLIT AND MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL GO SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN OR OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR UPPER
MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. SOME MVFR VISBYS MAY BE NOTED IN HAZE OVERNIGHT
BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW WAVES TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
EXISTS SUNDAY...BUT BASIN QPF WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE UNPRECEDENTED JUNE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE. HAVE NOT DEVIATED
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM
MOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY THAN
THE COOLER GFS VALUES. THE RAP IS SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE +40C LIKE
THEY DID ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED SOME
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CAUSE
THEM TO FALL OFF AGAIN TODAY.
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER A SMALL PART
OF THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
IOWA ALONG AN EXISTING FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION WHICH WOULD
TEND TO KEEP ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH
TIME. OTHERWISE...NAM MOS LOWS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERE WILL BE
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100-105.
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAN WHAT THEY WHERE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BECAUSE OF
MOISTURE POOLING WHICH WILL ONLY RAISE THE HEAT INDEX.
FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP MIXING IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION
AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 23-26 RANGE SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 100+
TEMPERATURES LIKE THE NAM MOS. NAM 2M TEMPS ARE IN THE 100-105F
RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW CLIMB IN DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEW GFS/ECMWF STILL LOOKS HOT AND DRY MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
DESPITE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...THE FLATTENED
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY. SO WINDS TO REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET...THEN PICKUP AGAIN NEAR 15KTS BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...DESPITE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
...THE FLATTENED SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY. SO
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS SUNSET...THEN PICKUP AGAIN NEAR 15KTS BY 15Z SATURDAY.
BYRD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
NO CHANGE TO THINKING ABOUT A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TODAY AS ONLY
THE WIND STAYING BELOW 15 MPH WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM NEEDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND FORECAST 10 HOUR DEAD
FUELS WILL BE 5-6 PERCENT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
RECORD HIGHS
DATE ST. LOUIS COLUMBIA QUINCY
----------------------------------------------
JUNE 29 105(1952) 104(1901) 103(1934)
JUNE 30 103(1931) 103(1901) 103(1931)
JULY 01 105(1980) 110(1980) 104(1930)
JULY 02 101(1933) 102(1901) 103(1934)
JULY 03 101(1934) 104(1901) 104(1911)
JULY 04 102(1990) 106(1901) 103(1936)
JULY 05 102(1938) 105(1911) 104(1911)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
550 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE UNPRECEDENTED JUNE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE. HAVE NOT DEVIATED
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM
MOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY THAN
THE COOLER GFS VALUES. THE RAP IS SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE +40C LIKE
THEY DID ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED SOME
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CAUSE
THEM TO FALL OFF AGAIN TODAY.
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER A SMALL PART
OF THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
IOWA ALONG AN EXISTING FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION WHICH WOULD
TEND TO KEEP ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH
TIME. OTHERWISE...NAM MOS LOWS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERE WILL BE
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100-105.
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAN WHAT THEY WHERE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BECAUSE OF
MOISTURE POOLING WHICH WILL ONLY RAISE THE HEAT INDEX.
FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP MIXING IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION
AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 23-26 RANGE SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 100+
TEMPERATURES LIKE THE NAM MOS. NAM 2M TEMPS ARE IN THE 100-105F
RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW CLIMB IN DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEW GFS/ECMWF STILL LOOKS HOT AND DRY MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
WEAK FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN IA AND CNTRL IL...N OF UIN EARLY
THIS MRNG. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN N OF UIN...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SKIRTING UIN. FURTHER S AT THE OTHER TAF SITES IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE W-SWLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE S OF OUR
AREA. THE SFC WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10-12 KTS THIS
AFTN...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN THIS EVNG.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN N OF STL AREA THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NWLY SFC WIND SHOULD BECOME W-SWLY LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN INCREASING TO AROUND 10-11 KTS...THEN WEAKENING
AGAIN THIS EVNG.
GKS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
NO CHANGE TO THINKING ABOUT A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TODAY AS ONLY
THE WIND STAYING BELOW 15 MPH WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM NEEDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND FORECAST 10 HOUR DEAD
FUELS WILL BE 5-6 PERCENT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
RECORD HIGHS
DATE ST. LOUIS COLUMBIA QUINCY
----------------------------------------------
JUNE 29 105(1952) 104(1901) 103(1934)
JUNE 30 103(1931) 103(1901) 103(1931)
JULY 01 105(1980) 110(1980) 104(1930)
JULY 02 101(1933) 102(1901) 103(1934)
JULY 03 101(1934) 104(1901) 104(1911)
JULY 04 102(1990) 106(1901) 103(1936)
JULY 05 102(1938) 105(1911) 104(1911)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
254 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE UNPRECEDENTED JUNE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE. HAVE NOT DEVIATED
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM
MOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY THAN
THE COOLER GFS VALUES. THE RAP IS SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE +40C LIKE
THEY DID ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED SOME
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CAUSE
THEM TO FALL OFF AGAIN TODAY.
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER A SMALL PART
OF THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
IOWA ALONG AN EXISTING FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION WHICH WOULD
TEND TO KEEP ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH
TIME. OTHERWISE...NAM MOS LOWS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERE WILL BE
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100-105.
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAN WHAT THEY WHERE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BECAUSE OF
MOISTURE POOLING WHICH WILL ONLY RAISE THE HEAT INDEX.
FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP MIXING IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION
AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 23-26 RANGE SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 100+
TEMPERATURES LIKE THE NAM MOS. NAM 2M TEMPS ARE IN THE 100-105F
RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW CLIMB IN DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEW GFS/ECMWF STILL LOOKS HOT AND DRY MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 20S CELSIUS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED FROM S IA TO N IL EARLY THIS EVENING HAS
BEEN MAKING VERY SLOW SWD PROGRESS...AND BELIEVE IT MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO BE VARIABLE AT UIN FOR MUCH OF THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE N ON FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH WEAK CONVERGENCE
AND INCREDIBLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IT WOULD CERTAINLY APPEAR THAT
ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WILL BE N OF
THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINING TAF SITES IN OUR CWA WILL REMAIN IN
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENLY AOB 12 KTS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA...WITH SW WINDS AOB 10
KTS.
TRUETT
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
NO CHANGE TO THINKING ABOUT A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TODAY AS ONLY
THE WIND STAYING BELOW 15 MPH WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM NEEDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND FORECAST 10 HOUR DEAD
FUELS WILL BE 5-6 PERCENT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
RECORD HIGHS
DATE ST. LOUIS COLUMBIA QUINCY
----------------------------------------------
JUNE 29 105(1952) 104(1901) 103(1934)
JUNE 30 103(1931) 103(1901) 103(1931)
JULY 01 105(1980) 110(1980) 104(1930)
JULY 02 101(1933) 102(1901) 103(1934)
JULY 03 101(1934) 104(1901) 104(1911)
JULY 04 102(1990) 106(1901) 103(1936)
JULY 05 102(1938) 105(1911) 104(1911)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
617 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA. ONLY IN DELAWARE COUNTY NY AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
730 AM. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT.
4 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. THESE
BROUGHT ON BY UNSTABLE MID LAYERS AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES. ALSO A
SFC BOUNDARY. THIS WILL DIE SLOWLY AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE
AREA AND INTO NJ AND ERN NY BY 8 AM. AFTER THAT DRY AIR COMES IN
AND NPV. WITH A LARGE LOW LEVEL CAP FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WILL FORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP AND HELP WITH DRYING.
DEWPOINT TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S. TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LEVEL
WINDS UP AND MOST OF THE TWIN TIERS MISSING THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO MOS WHICH HAS BEEN LESS THAN 2
DEGREES OFF LATELY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY FOR
THE MAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON
SUNDAY ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF SYSTEMS AND PRECIP. FOR THE
PERIOD REMAIN IN NW FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE US
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SAT
PM DIGGING THE NE US TROF A LITTLE DEEPER AND DROPPING
TEMPERATURES SOME SO AFTER ANOTHER MID 80S TO A90 DEGREE DAY
SATURDAY HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S. THIS IS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL FAR. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO MOS.
SATURDAYS SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH PA SO BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WENT WITH
MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TS EVERYWHERE GIVEN THE
WIDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BOTH DAYS NOT AS MUCH MODEL
CONSENSUS AS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO THESE DISTURBANCES ARE
WEAKER THAN NOW. LATE SATURDAY SPC HAS THE FAR SOUTH IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS OF
A CAP THAN TODAY. ALSO WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH DECENT SHEAR. SO
EVEN WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
THERE TO WORK WITH. IN CENTRAL NY LESS MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
COOLING SO STABILITY WILL BE GREATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS MODEL
AGREEMENT REMAINS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
GENERAL...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE BLOCKING ACROSS NORTH ATLANTIC
PREVENTS EASTWARD PROGRESS OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. WITH
THIS BEING THE CASE...AN ACTIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL
OVER OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHERE
WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR SHWRS/STORMS. FOLLOWING
ITS DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SET IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT/SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS SOLUTION HAS VERY
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR
OUT...FELT BEST TO MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES AT THIS JUNCTURE. EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WARM
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECORD HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A LINE OF SHWRS/STORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PLACE
THIS ACTIVITY OVER BOTH THE SYR AND RME TERMINALS SHORTLY. DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY LGT SHWR ACTIVITY AND
THUS WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO MVFR MENTION THROUGH 07Z AT BOTH SITES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHWRS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER OF NYS AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER ELM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...WE CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z IN DEVELOPING FOG WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH NEWLY ARRIVING HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DATA...WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IFR
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS HOWEVER.
BEYOND THIS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
PEAK HEATING HRS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR...AFTERNOON MVFR POSSIBLE AT ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP IN
DEVELOPING SHWRS/STORMS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
DEVELOPING -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...CMG/SLI
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
444 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. THESE
BROUGHT ON BY UNSTABLE MID LAYERS AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES. ALSO A
SFC BOUNDARY. THIS WILL DIE SLOWLY AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE
AREA AND INTO NJ AND ERN NY BY 8 AM. AFTER THAT DRY AIR COMES IN
AND NPV. WITH A LARGE LOW LEVEL CAP FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WILL FORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP AND HELP WITH DRYING.
DEWPOINT TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S. TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LEVEL
WINDS UP AND MOST OF THE TWIN TIERS MISSING THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO MOS WHICH HAS BEEN LESS THAN 2
DEGREES OFF LATELY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAY FOR
THE MAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON
SUNDAY ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF SYSTEMS AND PRECIP. FOR THE
PERIOD REMAIN IN NW FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE US
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SAT
PM DIGGING THE NE US TROF A LITTLE DEEPER AND DROPPING
TEMPERATURES SOME SO AFTER ANOTHER MID 80S TO A90 DEGREE DAY
SATURDAY HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S. THIS IS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL FAR. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO MOS.
SATURDAYS SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH PA SO BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WENT WITH
MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TS EVERYWHERE GIVEN THE
WIDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BOTH DAYS NOT AS MUCH MODEL
CONSENSUS AS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO THESE DISTURBANCES ARE
WEAKER THAN NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS MODEL
AGREEMENT REMAINS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
GENERAL...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE BLOCKING ACROSS NORTH ATLANTIC
PREVENTS EASTWARD PROGRESS OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. WITH
THIS BEING THE CASE...AN ACTIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL
OVER OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHERE
WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR SHWRS/STORMS. FOLLOWING
ITS DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SET IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT/SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS SOLUTION HAS VERY
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR
OUT...FELT BEST TO MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES AT THIS JUNCTURE. EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WARM
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECORD HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A LINE OF SHWRS/STORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PLACE
THIS ACTIVITY OVER BOTH THE SYR AND RME TERMINALS SHORTLY. DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY LGT SHWR ACTIVITY AND
THUS WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO MVFR MENTION THROUGH 07Z AT BOTH SITES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHWRS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER OF NYS AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER ELM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...WE CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z IN DEVELOPING FOG WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH NEWLY ARRIVING HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DATA...WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IFR
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS HOWEVER.
BEYOND THIS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
PEAK HEATING HRS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR...AFTERNOON MVFR POSSIBLE AT ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP IN
DEVELOPING SHWRS/STORMS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
DEVELOPING -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...CMG/SLI
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE GRIDS. WATCHING UPSTREAM AT THE
CONVECTION. AREA IN NW PA SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE
CONVECTION OVER LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE FAR NORTH WITH
SHOWERS. BOTH AREAS ARE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR. CONVECTION
BEING FORCED BY 3 SEPARATE SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT LINE.
THE HRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION ATTM. IT BRINGS BOTH
AREAS EAST AND JOINS THEM WITH SHOWERS IN BETWEEN THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 2 AND 7 AM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE 20 POPS
BUT MAY NEED TO UP THE POPS IF THIS PANS OUT.
830 PM UPDATE...MAIN TWEAK FOR THE EVNG UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER
CHC POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR THE OVRNGT PD. PERUSAL OF 00Z BUF/DET
SNDGS SHOW WELL DEFINED EML WHICH IS CAPPING CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
ACRS THE FCST AREA. WEAK CELL HAS DVLPD NEAR DTX IN THE PAST HR IN
AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAKER INHIBITION BUT THAT`S IT THUS FAR. GIVEN
AXIS OF L70 TD`S WITH THE FNT AND THE ADDNL SUPPORT OF A S/WV
WHICH WILL BE PASSING LATER TNGT WILL LEAVE IN A SLGT CHC TNGT FOR
POTNL ISOLD ACTIVITY...BUT XPCT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION (IF IT
DVLPS) TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR S AND W. WE ALSO RAISED MINS BY A FEW
DEG. PREV BLO...
530 PM UPDATE...MINOR T/TD/SKY TWEEKS OTRW NO CHGS. PERUSAL OF
LAPS AND ACARS PROFILES ALONG WITH SFC AND BL CIN ANYLS
INDICATES A STRONG CAP WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION OVRNGT. BAND OF L70`S TD`S IS WORKING ACRS MI VCNTY OF
FNT AND THERE IS A SUPPORTING S/WV...BUT BEST CHC FOR DVLPMNT
BASED ON WEAKEST FCST CIN APPEARS TO BE FROM SE MI INTO THE WRN
PORTIONS OF PA. WILL CONSIDER LOWERING POPS FOR THE OVRNGT PD IN
THE LATE EVNG UPDATE. PREV BLO...
2 PM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS A WEAK VORTICITY WAVE PASSES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FOCUS MORE ON CENTRAL PA
INSTEAD OF NE PA/CENTRAL NY FOR BETTER FORCING. I HAVE BACKED OFF
TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
FOR WHAT SMALL POPS WE HAVE...I ALSO HONED IN ON THE TIMING TO
EXPECTED PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AROUND 05Z-11Z. SURPRISINGLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE
600MB LEVEL...BUT WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION BELOW THAT LAYER...WITH ABSENCE OF REALLY GOOD FORCING
IT IS APPEARING THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE IN OUR AREA.
SPEAKING OF DRY AIR...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REALLY TANK BEHIND
THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...REACHING A WAYS BELOW THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A QUICK LOW CHANCE OF
LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THE WAVE EXITS...LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAP STRENGTHENS. GOOD
MIXING DOWN OF WARM DRY AIR WILL WIDEN THE DIURNAL RANGE TO THE
POINT THAT MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WILL PROBABLY PUSH 90 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE
WEATHER QUIET. FOR SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL BREAKDOWN SOMEWHAT
AND THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE, ALONG WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL CAP. THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO CAPE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY, BUT THE NAM SHOWS BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 JOULES OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCY BEING SO LARGE, HAVE ONLY A HIGH
SLIGHT CHC OP IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING. THIS AND THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN
AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING MUCH
LESS CAPE OVER THE CWA AS A WHOLE, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SHOWING 700
TO 900 JOULES OVER NEPA. SO, HAVE A MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS MODEL
AGREEMENT REMAINS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
GENERAL...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE BLOCKING ACROSS NORTH ATLANTIC
PREVENTS EASTWARD PROGRESS OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. WITH
THIS BEING THE CASE...AN ACTIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL
OVER OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHERE
WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR SHWRS/STORMS. FOLLOWING
ITS DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SET IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT/SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS SOLUTION HAS VERY
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR
OUT...FELT BEST TO MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES AT THIS JUNCTURE. EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WARM
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECORD HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A LINE OF SHWRS/STORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PLACE
THIS ACTIVITY OVER BOTH THE SYR AND RME TERMINALS SHORTLY. DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY LGT SHWR ACTIVITY AND
THUS WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO MVFR MENTION THROUGH 07Z AT BOTH SITES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHWRS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER OF NYS AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER ELM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...WE CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z IN DEVELOPING FOG WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH NEWLY ARRIVING HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DATA...WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IFR
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS HOWEVER.
BEYOND THIS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
PEAK HEATING HRS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR...AFTERNOON MVFR POSSIBLE AT ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP IN
DEVELOPING SHWRS/STORMS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
DEVELOPING -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...CMG/SLI
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE GRIDS. WATCHING UPSTREAM AT THE
CONVECTION. AREA IN NW PA SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE
CONVECTION OVER LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE FAR NORTH WITH
SHOWERS. BOTH AREAS ARE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR. CONVECTION
BEING FORCED BY 3 SEPARATE SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT LINE.
THE HRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION ATTM. IT BRINGS BOTH
AREAS EAST AND JOINS THEM WITH SHOWERS IN BETWEEN THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 2 AND 7 AM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE 20 POPS
BUT MAY NEED TO UP THE POPS IF THIS PANS OUT.
830 PM UPDATE...MAIN TWEAK FOR THE EVNG UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER
CHC POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR THE OVRNGT PD. PERUSAL OF 00Z BUF/DET
SNDGS SHOW WELL DEFINED EML WHICH IS CAPPING CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
ACRS THE FCST AREA. WEAK CELL HAS DVLPD NEAR DTX IN THE PAST HR IN
AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAKER INHIBITION BUT THAT`S IT THUS FAR. GIVEN
AXIS OF L70 TD`S WITH THE FNT AND THE ADDNL SUPPORT OF A S/WV
WHICH WILL BE PASSING LATER TNGT WILL LEAVE IN A SLGT CHC TNGT FOR
POTNL ISOLD ACTIVITY...BUT XPCT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION (IF IT
DVLPS) TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR S AND W. WE ALSO RAISED MINS BY A FEW
DEG. PREV BLO...
530 PM UPDATE...MINOR T/TD/SKY TWEEKS OTRW NO CHGS. PERUSAL OF
LAPS AND ACARS PROFILES ALONG WITH SFC AND BL CIN ANYLS
INDICATES A STRONG CAP WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION OVRNGT. BAND OF L70`S TD`S IS WORKING ACRS MI VCNTY OF
FNT AND THERE IS A SUPPORTING S/WV...BUT BEST CHC FOR DVLPMNT
BASED ON WEAKEST FCST CIN APPEARS TO BE FROM SE MI INTO THE WRN
PORTIONS OF PA. WILL CONSIDER LOWERING POPS FOR THE OVRNGT PD IN
THE LATE EVNG UPDATE. PREV BLO...
2 PM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS A WEAK VORTICITY WAVE PASSES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FOCUS MORE ON CENTRAL PA
INSTEAD OF NE PA/CENTRAL NY FOR BETTER FORCING. I HAVE BACKED OFF
TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
FOR WHAT SMALL POPS WE HAVE...I ALSO HONED IN ON THE TIMING TO
EXPECTED PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AROUND 05Z-11Z. SURPRISINGLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE
600MB LEVEL...BUT WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION BELOW THAT LAYER...WITH ABSENCE OF REALLY GOOD FORCING
IT IS APPEARING THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE IN OUR AREA.
SPEAKING OF DRY AIR...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REALLY TANK BEHIND
THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...REACHING A WAYS BELOW THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A QUICK LOW CHANCE OF
LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THE WAVE EXITS...LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAP STRENGTHENS. GOOD
MIXING DOWN OF WARM DRY AIR WILL WIDEN THE DIURNAL RANGE TO THE
POINT THAT MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WILL PROBABLY PUSH 90 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE
WEATHER QUIET. FOR SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL BREAKDOWN SOMEWHAT
AND THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE, ALONG WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL CAP. THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO CAPE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY, BUT THE NAM SHOWS BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 JOULES OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCY BEING SO LARGE, HAVE ONLY A HIGH
SLIGHT CHC OP IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING. THIS AND THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN
AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING MUCH
LESS CAPE OVER THE CWA AS A WHOLE, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SHOWING 700
TO 900 JOULES OVER NEPA. SO, HAVE A MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH. MAINLY IN NW FLOW
ALOFT, WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS
COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE AN MCS
TYPE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THIS. RATHER, IT SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. SO, HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
QUIET FOR NOW.
FOR THURSDAY, THE MODELS SWITCH PLACES. THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE
BUILDING AND THE GFS HAS A LOW SKIRTING NORTHERN NY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT. TIMING WILL MAKE THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE WITH
PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS FOR ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION. THE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A LINE OF SHWRS/STORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PLACE
THIS ACTIVITY OVER BOTH THE SYR AND RME TERMINALS SHORTLY. DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY LGT SHWR ACTIVITY AND
THUS WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO MVFR MENTION THROUGH 07Z AT BOTH SITES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHWRS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER OF NYS AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER ELM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...WE CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z IN DEVELOPING FOG WITH
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH NEWLY ARRIVING HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DATA...WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IFR
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS HOWEVER.
BEYOND THIS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
PEAK HEATING HRS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR...AFTERNOON MVFR POSSIBLE AT ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP IN
DEVELOPING SHWRS/STORMS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
DEVELOPING -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...SLI
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BROAD RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
TODAY...THEN SHIFTING INTO OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES/JAMES RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY.
ONE SHORTWAVE IS NOW APPROACHING MILES CITY MONTANA AND CONTINUED
TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MILES
CITY REPORTED A TRACE RECENTLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HRRR IS PERSISTENT IN RAMPING UP
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND TOP THE RIDGE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. IN DOING SO A FRONT
WILL DEVELOP/EMERGE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS
FORECAST FROM HETTINGER TO BOWMAN AND BEACH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN
MONTANA. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35KT TO 40KT IN A POSSIBLY HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT OF 2000 J/KG COULD YIELD ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR A
WIND/HAIL THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS IDEA THAN THE NAM WHICH IS MORE CAPPED. IN ANY CASE THIS
WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF IT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AREA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WOULD BE THE MOST
TARGET PRONE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AND THIS IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
EXPECT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. A PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RESOLVING THE SHORTWAVES
TRAVELING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH AND TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR WEST...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AND APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THE GFS SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE INITIATING CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH A STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY...THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY (JULY 4) AND THURSDAY...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT AGREE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP
POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PERSISTENT BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENTLY HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WILL BRING A MENTION OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY VCSH TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY. TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINING
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1141 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE NOW NEAR
LIVINGSTON MONTANA MOVING EAST. THE 00Z NAM/GFS APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THIS SHORTWAVE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH...RESULTING IN A
DISPLACEMENT OF THE ACTUAL RADAR ECHOES VERSUS MODEL OUTPUT. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE WAVE
AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION AREA/TRENDS OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND ADJUSTED POPS TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH...ENCOMPASSING
WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY SOUTH INTO BOWMAN AND EAST INTO SIOUX
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHC OF POPS WERE ALREADY COVERED IN BOWMAN AND
POINTS EAST FROM EARLIER. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS MAINLY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NE ON
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ANY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IMPACTING KDIK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK FROM THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EVENING UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS IN A ZONAL FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES FROM
SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WV. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN CENTRAL OHIO THERE IS A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY THAT IS INITIATING ISOLATED CONVECTION
THERE. ACROSS THE AREA, STRONG SBCAPE (AROUND 4000 J/KG) AND
MODERATE SHEAR (0-6KM BULK 45 KTS) CONTINUES TO TRIGGER A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS IN THE AREA.
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT EDGING INTO THE AREA. SCHC POPS ARE
FORECAST INITIALLY AS CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED. THE HRRR INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS THE
WIND SHIFT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OVERNIGHT. SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR, ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE
WITH JUST CHC POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. TEMPS HAVE BEEN MORE WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF KY, OH, AND WV TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
THE REGION WILL BE IN A SIMILAR PATTERN TOMORROW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WITH YET AGAIN ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY.
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH MODERATE
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2. WITH GFS/NAM
INDICATING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 20-22C, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE KY/OH/WV TRI-STATE AREA TO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE CRW-HTS VCNTY ON WEST AS HEAT
INDICES WARM INTO THE 100-105 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT TRAIN OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO CONTINUE. TIMING AND
LOCATION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL COMPLEX IS VERY TOUGH. BLENDED TOWARDS
THE NAMDNG5...WHICH AT LEAST SHOWS SOME PROGRESSION OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW IN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT...AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CENTRAL US RIDGE
STAYING IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
HOT AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD ON PLACE OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH CWA STILL
POSSIBLE TO HANG ONTO 500MB FLOW...AND THUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
THEREFORE...PATTERN WILL LINGER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
HOT WEATHER IN PLACE...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CARRYING THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAYS BUT NOT ELIMINATING
THEM AT NIGHT. NO RELIEF IN SIGHT WITH THE TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL MOVE
EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TERMINALS.
VSBY IS FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR IN FOG AND HAZE AFTER 03Z...WITH
AREAS OF IFR RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MEDIUM.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>007-
013>015-024>026.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ086-087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RG
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ROR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1012 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ALONG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WHILE THE PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED IN THE VCNTY OF THE OHIO RIVER
THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. BASED ON LATEST RAP AND PWAT
FIELDS...CONVECTION SHOULD END ACRS CENTRAL OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE RAP INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION ACRS CNTRL IL AND SW INDIANA MAY FESTER AS IT TRAVERSES
SE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. SEVERE THREAT
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR.
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING...WENT WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS NOON TO 8 PM FOR HAMILTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...AND
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. HAVE CHANCE POPS
ON MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC TUE AND WED AFTN WITH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING A LTL EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PRECIP ON THURSDAY BUT DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING
HAVE KEPT REGION DRY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER
EAST AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FCST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BUT CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...I.E. AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS EVENING...A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR NEAR KCMH THROUGH 05Z THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE TOWARD NORTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 05Z.
ATTM...WITH CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND TO THIS CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE
SRN TAF SITES OF KCVG/KLUK. UNDER A LIGHT SFC WIND FLOW
OVERNIGHT...FOG POTENTIAL AT KLUK WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT. SKIES
SHOULD GO PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ATTM TO PUT FOG IN
JUST YET. WILL WAIT FOR 06Z ISSUANCE OR IF IT BECOMES APPARENT.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY GET GOING
ACRS THE WRN TAF SITES...PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND THUS WILL PRECLUDE FROM
MENTIONING IN THE TAF SITES ATTM.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-
060-062>064-070>073-078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ061-
077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP
A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE
MCS/DAMAGING WIND EVENT THAT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD ACRS OUR AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 436 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NW OHIO AND NRN INDIANA IS
EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING PER HRRR MODEL. THESE STORMS WILL FEED INTO A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 18Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3500 J/KG. MODERATE SHEAR IS ALSO OVER THE AREA. FOR
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...DCAPE IS APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND DELTA
THETA E IS OVER 40 C. NONETHELESS...FORECAST AREA MAY BE DEALING
WITH A DERECHO WHICH WILL PRODUCE HIGH END WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCAL HAIL STONES SIZES POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH FAST MOVING
STORMS...FLOODING SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MCS SHOULD BE EXITING THE SE CWFA BY
EARLY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A LULL IN CONVECTION DUE TO THE AREA BEING WORKED OVER. HAVE KEPT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE MCS.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM...ALBEIT ONCE RAIN
COOLED AIR HITS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL DROP. WILL DECIDE HOW TO
HANDLE THIS ONCE CONVECTION MOVES ACRS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
CENTER OF UPR LVL HIGH REMAINS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE ACRS
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SE THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM TIME TO TIME. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST ATTM. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND
PARTS OF SE INDIANA AND SRN OHIO AS VALUES WILL BE UP TO 107
(MONTGOMERY WILL BE UP TO 104 BUT THEY HAVE SPECIAL HEAT HEADLINE
CRITERIA). HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY FOR SRN
SECTIONS BUT WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE HWO ATTM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ON SATURDAY AND
LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MID WEEK. INTERMITTENT
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. HAVE ONLY FORECAST LOW END
MENTIONABLE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. THESE POPS COULD BE INCREASED FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS EACH PARTICULAR WAVE BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ONLY COOL BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED INTO NW INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS ORIENTED W-E
THRU THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACRS OHIO. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
EXACT STORM EVOLUTION THIS AFTN. LEANING TOWARD LATEST HRRR
SOLN WHICH HAS BEEN POINTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DROP ESE AND BUILD S INTO VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHERE BLYR CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000 J/KG. HAVE
A PERIOD OF VCTS THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS AT KDAY WHERE BEST THREAT EXISTS.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
THIS EVENING. IN HUMID AIRMASS...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY REDUCTION AT KCVG/KLUK AND KILN.
ON SATURDAY...BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE TAFS DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-080-082.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-080-
082.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ061-
077>079-081-088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL BUT THE FAR NE END
OF THE AREA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SO...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE A
LITTLE COOLER THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S.
HAVE ALSO BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY AT THE SW END OF THE
AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MCS MOVING ACROSS IA.
PREVIOUS...ON THE 6 AM UPDATE JUST TWEAKED THE CLOUDS FOR THIS AM AND
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER INLAND NORTHWEST PA BECAUSE
OF ALL THE RAIN. OTHERWISE STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY.
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT HAS MOVES
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
INFLUENCES OF LAKE ERIE. LOCATIONS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL COME
CLOSE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100. AFTER A VERY WARM
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY. WENT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...USED A MIX OF PRODUCTS.
THE POP FORECAST IS TOUGH. THE HRRR MODEL IS TRYING TO INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
ARE TODAY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE TO THAT AREA.
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS MUCH LOWER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS VERY TOUGH TRYING TO TIME PRECIPITATION. WENT
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...A THREAT TONIGHT AS AN MCS MAY COME
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE THREAT CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AND THEN A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS COULD BE INTERESTING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE A
STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING DUE TO THE SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY TRANSLATE
INTO A PERIOD OF ONE MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS THE SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...THE STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MEAN A SPLIT BETWEEN
RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES EAST TO CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES
WEST. WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME HAZE BEING REPORTED AT
AKRON CANTON BUT HAS MINIMAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EARLIEST THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR WOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE
WEST AND THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADD MENTION OF THE CONVECTION WEST
THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK
GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE AND WEAK STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
726 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON THE 6 AM UPDATE JUST TWEAKED THE CLOUDS FOR THIS AM AND
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER INLAND NORTHWEST PA BECAUSE
OF ALL THE RAIN. OTHERWISE STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY.
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT HAS MOVES
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
INFLUENCES OF LAKE ERIE. LOCATIONS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL COME
CLOSE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100. AFTER A VERY WARM
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY. WENT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...USED A MIX OF PRODUCTS.
THE POP FORECAST IS TOUGH. THE HRRR MODEL IS TRYING TO INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
ARE TODAY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE TO THAT AREA.
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS MUCH LOWER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS VERY TOUGH TRYING TO TIME PRECIPITATION. WENT
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...A THREAT TONIGHT AS AN MCS MAY COME
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE THREAT CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AND THEN A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS COULD BE INTERESTING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE A
STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING DUE TO THE SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY TRANSLATE
INTO A PERIOD OF ONE MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS THE SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...THE STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MEAN A SPLIT BETWEEN
RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES EAST TO CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES
WEST. WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME HAZE BEING REPORTED AT
AKRON CANTON BUT HAS MINIMAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EARLIEST THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR WOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE
WEST AND THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADD MENTION OF THE CONVECTION WEST
THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK
GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE AND WEAK STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
611 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON THE 6 AM UPDATE JUST TWEAKED THE CLOUDS FOR THIS AM AND
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER INLAND NORTHWEST PA BECAUSE
OF ALL THE RAIN. OTHERWISE STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY.
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT HAS MOVES
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
INFLUENCES OF LAKE ERIE. LOCATIONS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL COME
CLOSE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100. AFTER A VERY WARM
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY. WENT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...USED A MIX OF PRODUCTS.
THE POP FORECAST IS TOUGH. THE HRRR MODEL IS TRYING TO INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
ARE TODAY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE TO THAT AREA.
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS MUCH LOWER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS VERY TOUGH TRYING TO TIME PRECIPITATION. WENT
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...A THREAT TONIGHT AS AN MCS MAY COME
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE THREAT CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AND THEN A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS COULD BE INTERESTING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE A
STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING DUE TO THE SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY TRANSLATE
INTO A PERIOD OF ONE MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS THE SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...THE STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MEAN A SPLIT BETWEEN
RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES EAST TO CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES
WEST. WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AN
MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A RATHER POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY
OVERNIGHT EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING DRY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EARLIEST THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR WOULD BE
AROUND 06Z IN THE WEST AND THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK
GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE AND WEAK STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
413 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT HAS MOVES
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
INFLUENCES OF LAKE ERIE. LOCATIONS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL COME
CLOSE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100. AFTER A VERY WARM
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY. WENT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...USED A MIX OF PRODUCTS.
THE POP FORECAST IS TOUGH. THE HRRR MODEL IS TRYING TO INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
ARE TODAY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE TO THAT AREA.
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS MUCH LOWER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS VERY TOUGH TRYING TO TIME PRECIPITATION. WENT
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...A THREAT TONIGHT AS AN MCS MAY COME
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE THREAT CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AND THEN A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS COULD BE INTERESTING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE A
STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING DUE TO THE SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY TRANSLATE
INTO A PERIOD OF ONE MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS THE SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...THE STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MEAN A SPLIT BETWEEN
RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES EAST TO CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES
WEST. WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AN
MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A RATHER POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY
OVERNIGHT EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING DRY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EARLIEST THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR WOULD BE
AROUND 06Z IN THE WEST AND THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK
GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE AND WEAK STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION. HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND AND EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MILD AIRMASS REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AND DID NOT ALTER LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OR HIGHS TOMORROW. NAM AND GFS DISAGREE ON
TIMING OF WAVE TOMORROW...BUT WITH NAM NOT EVEN HANDLING CURRENT
SITUATION AND TIMING WELL...SIDED CLOSER TO GFS AND ECMWF. STILL
UNSURE WHETHER WAVE WILL INDUCE ANY CONVECTION...BUT IF IT DOES
SO...BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE INT HE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO I80 YET...THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I90 AND IS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH 06Z. THE WAVES SHOULD MOVE SOUTH SO ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER 06Z. WITH ALL OF
THE MOISTURE...LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
IT REMAINS FAIRLY WARM ALOFT SO THERE IS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WITH A BOUNDARY AND UPPER WAVE...DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF
I90. SINCE CONVECTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
SO HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 90S EVERYWHERE BUT THE BUFFALO RIDGE
WHICH WILL HOLD IN THE 80S.
AFTER SUNDAY EVENING...THERE REALLY LOOKS LIKE NO ORGANIZED CHANCE
FOR PRECIPTITATION AND A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL US FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CARRIES MOST UPPER WAVES OVER
ND AND NORTHERN MN. WHILE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A ROGUE STORM
COULD FORM EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SW MN...THE CHANCE IS
SO SMALL THAT HAVE GONE DRY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE WITH SW FLOW ABOVE 900 MB. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BASICALLY HAVE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG AND
EAST OF I29 TO AROUND 102 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THERE IS CERTAINLY
THE POTENTIAL THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE DAYS COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN FORECAST BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF WIND DIRECTION CAN GO
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FOR A PERIOD. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE HUMIDITY.
WITH A STRONG INVERSION...EXPECT THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. ONLY SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD SEE DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S...OR EVEN LOWER...IF
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 EACH
AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH
DAY...AND A DAY OR TWO WITH LOWS NEAR 80 ARE ALSO NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT NEXT
WEEK. /SCHUMACHER
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST CREATING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE FOCUS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AFTER 18Z. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND 5 SM WITHIN THE
CORE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1234 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...LEADING TO THE QUIET OVERNIGHT THUS FAR. 00Z MPX AND GRB
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE DRY...SUBSIDENT AIR QUITE NICELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.77 INCHES OR 85 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. JUST TO OUR SOUTH...A STREAM OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. BIG DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS MOISTURE STREAM COMPARED TO MPX...WITH
THE 00Z OAX AND DVN SOUNDINGS SHOWING VALUE AROUND 2 INCHES OR
NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
REFLECTED TOO AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 75-80F ALONG A
LINE BETWEEN HASTINGS NEBRASKA AND PEORIA ILLINOIS. THE MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
HAVE BEEN TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THESE HAVE BEING AIDED BY 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ONE OF THE CLUSTERS CROSSING CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS AN MCV
WITH IT. ANOTHER ZONE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOTED OVER
IOWA...GOING OVER TOP OF THE FRONT...PER VWP DATA. SO FAR NO
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSPORT...THOUGH SOME
4000-6000 FT CLOUD BASES ARE PRESENT. FINALLY...TO THE WEST...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA GOING THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACCOMPANYING IT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT RIGHT OFF THE BAT
WITH MOST MODELS STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA.
FIRST...IN GENERAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW...MODELS PROG THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY
12Z SATURDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS FROM ALL MODELS THAT SOME FORM
OF WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS TROUGHING APPEARS TO FORM FROM A RESULT OF THE EASTERN MONTANA
SHORTWAVE AND THE MCV MOVING THROUGH/BY THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS
WILL ANY PRECIPITATION OCCUR AS THESE SHORTWAVES PASS BY OR MOVE
THROUGH. ONGOING NEBRASKA CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
IT ENTERS NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING IS ALSO ON THE ZONE OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER IOWA. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE ON THE NOSE OF IT BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER NORTHERN IOWA. ALSO...
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN UPPER JET STREAK CROSSING I-90 THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD GIVE
A BRIEF UPPER DIVERGENCE SURGE. SHOULD CONVECTION GO...CAPE VALUES
LIFTED FROM 850MB ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH NO CIN AND 1-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KT...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENDS MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...SUGGESTING ANY CONVECTION WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER WITH BY
15Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE EASTERN MONTANA SHORTWAVE...LIKELY
COMING AT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...CONVECTION COULD FIRE UP
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. 0-6KM SHEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS AROUND 30
KT...SUGGESTING MAYBE SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD POSE AT MOST A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL..CONFIDENCE
NOT THAT HIGH FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS LOW...REFLECTED BY THE
20-40 PERCENT PROBABILITIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF MORE AMPLIFICATION
TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...MEANING THAT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND I-80 IN IOWA. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VARIETY OF
SHORTWAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SOME WHICH MIGHT BE REAL
AND OTHERS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY
AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ANY SHORTWAVE COULD BRIEFLY SURGE THIS
INSTABILITY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS FOCUSING ANY 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FRONTAL
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA. 20 PERCENT CHANCES EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES BACK NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKS OKAY TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...OR SHORTWAVE SUGGESTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES...THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...925MB AND 850MB READINGS
DO NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT DAY TO DAY...RUNNING BETWEEN 22-26C AND
18-22C RESPECTIVELY AT 18Z. COOLEST 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS ARE
SUGGESTED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN POTENTIAL TO SEE QUITE A FEW
HOURS OF SUN EACH DAY...HIGHS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SAME
GOES FOR LOWS TOO WITH LITTLE ADVECTION EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS DO NOT
SEEM TO GET HIGH ENOUGH SOUTH OF I-90 TO WARRANT ANY HEAT ADVISORY
HAZARD. RIGHT NOW...ANTICIPATING MAX HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90-95.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
GENERAL THEME FROM THE 29.00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...UKMET...GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...AS WELL AS THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...IS TO SUGGEST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING AND EXPANDING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THERE
IS ONE HUGE DIFFERENCE...WHERE THE ECMWF RUNS ALLOW THE RIDGING TO
BUILD UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE SOME
FORM OF TROUGHING INDICATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CREATES HAVOC
FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTING. SHOULD THE ECMWF
RUNS BE CORRECT...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM IS DRY AND HOT
WITH HIGHS LIKELY EACH DAY FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S BEGINNING
TUESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...OTHER MODELS CAN HAVE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW...ONE OF
WHICH IS PROMINENTLY DISPLAYED FOR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...PRETTY MUCH
STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL MODELS CAN BECOME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS RESULTS IN PRETTY MUCH EVERY 12 HOUR PERIOD HAVING
AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. WE DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR A HEAT WAVE...SEEING TOO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CFS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1234 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH WATER VAPOR
DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT EXPECT ALL OF IT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THE ONLY INFLUENCE FROM THIS WILL BE A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS. THUS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
650 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...LEADING TO THE QUIET OVERNIGHT THUS FAR. 00Z MPX AND GRB
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE DRY...SUBSIDENT AIR QUITE NICELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.77 INCHES OR 85 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. JUST TO OUR SOUTH...A STREAM OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. BIG DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS MOISTURE STREAM COMPARED TO MPX...WITH
THE 00Z OAX AND DVN SOUNDINGS SHOWING VALUE AROUND 2 INCHES OR
NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
REFLECTED TOO AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 75-80F ALONG A
LINE BETWEEN HASTINGS NEBRASKA AND PEORIA ILLINOIS. THE MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
HAVE BEEN TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THESE HAVE BEING AIDED BY 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ONE OF THE CLUSTERS CROSSING CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS AN MCV
WITH IT. ANOTHER ZONE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOTED OVER
IOWA...GOING OVER TOP OF THE FRONT...PER VWP DATA. SO FAR NO
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSPORT...THOUGH SOME
4000-6000 FT CLOUD BASES ARE PRESENT. FINALLY...TO THE WEST...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA GOING THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACCOMPANYING IT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT RIGHT OFF THE BAT
WITH MOST MODELS STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA.
FIRST...IN GENERAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW...MODELS PROG THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY
12Z SATURDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS FROM ALL MODELS THAT SOME FORM
OF WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS TROUGHING APPEARS TO FORM FROM A RESULT OF THE EASTERN MONTANA
SHORTWAVE AND THE MCV MOVING THROUGH/BY THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS
WILL ANY PRECIPITATION OCCUR AS THESE SHORTWAVES PASS BY OR MOVE
THROUGH. ONGOING NEBRASKA CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
IT ENTERS NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING IS ALSO ON THE ZONE OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER IOWA. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE ON THE NOSE OF IT BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER NORTHERN IOWA. ALSO...
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN UPPER JET STREAK CROSSING I-90 THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD GIVE
A BRIEF UPPER DIVERGENCE SURGE. SHOULD CONVECTION GO...CAPE VALUES
LIFTED FROM 850MB ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH NO CIN AND 1-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KT...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENDS MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...SUGGESTING ANY CONVECTION WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER WITH BY
15Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE EASTERN MONTANA SHORTWAVE...LIKELY
COMING AT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...CONVECTION COULD FIRE UP
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. 0-6KM SHEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS AROUND 30
KT...SUGGESTING MAYBE SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD POSE AT MOST A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL..CONFIDENCE
NOT THAT HIGH FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS LOW...REFLECTED BY THE
20-40 PERCENT PROBABILITIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF MORE AMPLIFICATION
TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...MEANING THAT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND I-80 IN IOWA. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VARIETY OF
SHORTWAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SOME WHICH MIGHT BE REAL
AND OTHERS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY
AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ANY SHORTWAVE COULD BRIEFLY SURGE THIS
INSTABILITY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS FOCUSING ANY 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FRONTAL
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA. 20 PERCENT CHANCES EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES BACK NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKS OKAY TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...OR SHORTWAVE SUGGESTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES...THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...925MB AND 850MB READINGS
DO NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT DAY TO DAY...RUNNING BETWEEN 22-26C AND
18-22C RESPECTIVELY AT 18Z. COOLEST 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS ARE
SUGGESTED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN POTENTIAL TO SEE QUITE A FEW
HOURS OF SUN EACH DAY...HIGHS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SAME
GOES FOR LOWS TOO WITH LITTLE ADVECTION EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS DO NOT
SEEM TO GET HIGH ENOUGH SOUTH OF I-90 TO WARRANT ANY HEAT ADVISORY
HAZARD. RIGHT NOW...ANTICIPATING MAX HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90-95.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
GENERAL THEME FROM THE 29.00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...UKMET...GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...AS WELL AS THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...IS TO SUGGEST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING AND EXPANDING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THERE
IS ONE HUGE DIFFERENCE...WHERE THE ECMWF RUNS ALLOW THE RIDGING TO
BUILD UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE SOME
FORM OF TROUGHING INDICATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CREATES HAVOC
FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTING. SHOULD THE ECMWF
RUNS BE CORRECT...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM IS DRY AND HOT
WITH HIGHS LIKELY EACH DAY FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S BEGINNING
TUESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...OTHER MODELS CAN HAVE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW...ONE OF
WHICH IS PROMINENTLY DISPLAYED FOR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...PRETTY MUCH
STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL MODELS CAN BECOME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS RESULTS IN PRETTY MUCH EVERY 12 HOUR PERIOD HAVING
AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. WE DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR A HEAT WAVE...SEEING TOO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CFS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
646 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT
BOTH TAF SITES. SOME BLOW OFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 12K FEET.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
650 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...LEADING TO THE QUIET OVERNIGHT THUS FAR. 00Z MPX AND GRB
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE DRY...SUBSIDENT AIR QUITE NICELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.77 INCHES OR 85 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. JUST TO OUR SOUTH...A STREAM OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. BIG DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS MOISTURE STREAM COMPARED TO MPX...WITH
THE 00Z OAX AND DVN SOUNDINGS SHOWING VALUE AROUND 2 INCHES OR
NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
REFLECTED TOO AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 75-80F ALONG A
LINE BETWEEN HASTINGS NEBRASKA AND PEORIA ILLINOIS. THE MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
HAVE BEEN TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THESE HAVE BEING AIDED BY 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ONE OF THE CLUSTERS CROSSING CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS AN MCV
WITH IT. ANOTHER ZONE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOTED OVER
IOWA...GOING OVER TOP OF THE FRONT...PER VWP DATA. SO FAR NO
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSPORT...THOUGH SOME
4000-6000 FT CLOUD BASES ARE PRESENT. FINALLY...TO THE WEST...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA GOING THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACCOMPANYING IT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT RIGHT OFF THE BAT
WITH MOST MODELS STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA.
FIRST...IN GENERAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW...MODELS PROG THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY
12Z SATURDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS FROM ALL MODELS THAT SOME FORM
OF WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS TROUGHING APPEARS TO FORM FROM A RESULT OF THE EASTERN MONTANA
SHORTWAVE AND THE MCV MOVING THROUGH/BY THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS
WILL ANY PRECIPITATION OCCUR AS THESE SHORTWAVES PASS BY OR MOVE
THROUGH. ONGOING NEBRASKA CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
IT ENTERS NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING IS ALSO ON THE ZONE OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER IOWA. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE ON THE NOSE OF IT BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER NORTHERN IOWA. ALSO...
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN UPPER JET STREAK CROSSING I-90 THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD GIVE
A BRIEF UPPER DIVERGENCE SURGE. SHOULD CONVECTION GO...CAPE VALUES
LIFTED FROM 850MB ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH NO CIN AND 1-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KT...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENDS MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING...SUGGESTING ANY CONVECTION WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER WITH BY
15Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE EASTERN MONTANA SHORTWAVE...LIKELY
COMING AT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...CONVECTION COULD FIRE UP
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. 0-6KM SHEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS AROUND 30
KT...SUGGESTING MAYBE SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD POSE AT MOST A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL..CONFIDENCE
NOT THAT HIGH FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS LOW...REFLECTED BY THE
20-40 PERCENT PROBABILITIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF MORE AMPLIFICATION
TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...MEANING THAT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND I-80 IN IOWA. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VARIETY OF
SHORTWAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SOME WHICH MIGHT BE REAL
AND OTHERS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY
AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ANY SHORTWAVE COULD BRIEFLY SURGE THIS
INSTABILITY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS FOCUSING ANY 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FRONTAL
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA. 20 PERCENT CHANCES EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES BACK NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKS OKAY TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...OR SHORTWAVE SUGGESTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES...THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...925MB AND 850MB READINGS
DO NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT DAY TO DAY...RUNNING BETWEEN 22-26C AND
18-22C RESPECTIVELY AT 18Z. COOLEST 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS ARE
SUGGESTED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN POTENTIAL TO SEE QUITE A FEW
HOURS OF SUN EACH DAY...HIGHS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SAME
GOES FOR LOWS TOO WITH LITTLE ADVECTION EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS DO NOT
SEEM TO GET HIGH ENOUGH SOUTH OF I-90 TO WARRANT ANY HEAT ADVISORY
HAZARD. RIGHT NOW...ANTICIPATING MAX HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90-95.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
GENERAL THEME FROM THE 29.00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...UKMET...GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...AS WELL AS THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...IS TO SUGGEST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING AND EXPANDING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THERE
IS ONE HUGE DIFFERENCE...WHERE THE ECMWF RUNS ALLOW THE RIDGING TO
BUILD UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE SOME
FORM OF TROUGHING INDICATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CREATES HAVOC
FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTING. SHOULD THE ECMWF
RUNS BE CORRECT...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM IS DRY AND HOT
WITH HIGHS LIKELY EACH DAY FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S BEGINNING
TUESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...OTHER MODELS CAN HAVE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW...ONE OF
WHICH IS PROMINENTLY DISPLAYED FOR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...PRETTY MUCH
STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND UNTIL MODELS CAN BECOME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS RESULTS IN PRETTY MUCH EVERY 12 HOUR PERIOD HAVING
AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. WE DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR A HEAT WAVE...SEEING TOO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CFS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
A WEST TO EAST RUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR PERIODS OF SHRA/TS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND/OR
IMPINGEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENHANCING THE
PCPN CHANCES. MOSTLY THOUGH...MODELS FAVOR KEEPING THIS PCPN SOUTH
OF KRST/KLSE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW. SOME
HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD MOVE IN FRI AFTERNOON FROM
CONVECTION OVER IA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT TIMES...BECOMING SOUTH FRI MORNING...THEN
VARIABLE TO WEST BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT WINDS...FAIR SKIES...AND FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG/BR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT DPA AND
POSSIBLY RFD. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
FORM AND PUSH INLAND AND THROUGH ORD/MDW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING TSRA CHANCES...SURFACE FRONT IS ILL DEFINED AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE LAKE
BREEZE COULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND SO FELT BEST
COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO MAINTAIN THE PROB30 FOR STORMS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING TSRA POTENTIAL SUNDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
252 AM CDT
LIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
LARGELY DICTATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD MOVE DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH COUPLE
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1226 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
404 PM CDT
SEVERAL CONCERNS/CHALLENGES CONTINUE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AS WELL AS
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WITH TIME...IT IS APPEARING
AS IF THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIMINISHING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HUG
THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD...AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS
EAST TO BENTON COUNTY IN INDIANA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST IOWA EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE/SPEED
MAX NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MORE TOWARDS THIS BOUNDARY AND NEAR AN AXIS
OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN. AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AS WELL AS FURTHER PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...DONT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT ANY FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT ANY CIN HAS ERODED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED. WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TO DEVELOP DESPITE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AFTER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS EVENING...CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SETUP IS
INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LLJ INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...HELPING TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL CLEARLY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...IT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBLE
SOLUTION...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH THIS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN OR UNKNOWNS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ONCE
THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OCCUR BY MID DAY SUNDAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR WITH DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH THE QUESTION OF WHERE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY TRYING TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
MORE SOUTHWEST...THE EXTENT OF THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. IF THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SETUP
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA...THAN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS
FURTHER SOUTH...THAN WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH. IN
EITHER SCENARIO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAD
CONTEMPLATED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING AROUND 90. WITH QUESTIONS CONCERNING PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY...HAVE HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN STAYING BELOW
CRITERIA FOR EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH HEAT DOES APPEAR AS IF IT IS SETTING UP WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT WINDS...FAIR SKIES...AND FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG/BR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT DPA AND
POSSIBLY RFD. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
FORM AND PUSH INLAND AND THROUGH ORD/MDW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING TSRA CHANCES...SURFACE FRONT IS ILL DEFINED AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE LAKE
BREEZE COULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND SO FELT BEST
COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO MAINTAIN THE PROB30 FOR STORMS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING TSRA POTENTIAL SUNDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
153 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 TO
15 KT TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THESE PERIODS OF
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES TO DOMINATE THE WIND
FIELDS CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
359 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
03Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. 00Z RAOBS FROM AROUND THE AREA
SHOWED LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
PROFILE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH DNR CONTINUING TO INDICATE A WELL
MIXED...DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS/THUNDERSTORMS AND FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
TODAY...PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND BRING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES INCREASE THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW WARM/DRY THINGS WILL BE TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINK AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LOWER TDS INTO THE
LOWER 50S AND UPPER 50S AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THINK
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RFW CRITERIA...BUT UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY KEEPING CONFIDENCE BELOW
WARNING LEVELS. PLAN ON HOLDING OFF FINAL DECISION FOR A FEW HOURS
TO SEE HOW SFC OBS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS HANDLE SITUATION.
OTHERWISE...WITH MORNING SUBSIDENCE THINK MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG SFC TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 21Z...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE KS-CO STATE LINE BY 00Z. GIVEN OVERALL
LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING UNDER RIDGE...NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CWA NEAR THE CENTER OF H5 RIDGE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION AS THE
PERIOD GOES ON. MODELS SHOWING A SIMILAR MOISTURE PLUME AS
YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH H7 THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA...THINK AT LEAST A
SMALL THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS STILL IS WARRANTED DESPITE
PRESENCE OF LARGE RIDGE AS DIV Q FIELDS NOT INDICATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR EAST ANY
STORMS CAN MAKE IT EACH EVENING. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THETA E RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A
SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE EAST IS SOMEWHAT LOW ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR WEAKEST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN DURING THE PERIOD...NOT
REALLY SEEING A LARGE REASON FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWING IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND THINK A TEMPS NEAR LATEST BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS
DATA LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN ORDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW
HOLDING TEMPS DOWN...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO ALLOW FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA WITH AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA YET AGAIN.
AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
AND CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT A SEVERAL DAY HEAT
ADVISORY/LOW END HEAT WARNING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS VALUES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA.
CONSIDERED ISSUING HIGHLIGHT NOW...BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO OUTFLOW TODAY...NOT SURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
FAR INTO CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN. FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO FROM MOVING TOO FAR
EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCES SEEM
REASONABLE...BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DAILY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECLINE. HRRR SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND AROUND 7Z WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR FOG AT KMCK
AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINING FOG FREE AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE LOW VFR VIS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 70-80
PERCENT.
SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
PLACING ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
320 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
03Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. 00Z RAOBS FROM AROUND THE AREA
SHOWED LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
PROFILE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH DNR CONTINUING TO INDICATE A WELL
MIXED...DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS/THUNDERSTORMS AND FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY
TODAY...PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND BRING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES INCREASE THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW WARM/DRY THINGS WILL BE TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINK AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LOWER TDS INTO THE
LOWER 50S AND UPPER 50S AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THINK
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RFW CRITERIA...BUT UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY KEEPING CONFIDENCE BELOW
WARNING LEVELS. PLAN ON HOLDING OFF FINAL DECISION FOR A FEW HOURS
TO SEE HOW SFC OBS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS HANDLE SITUATION.
OTHERWISE...WITH MORNING SUBSIDENCE THINK MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG SFC TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 21Z...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE KS-CO STATE LINE BY 00Z. GIVEN OVERALL
LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING UNDER RIDGE...NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CWA NEAR THE CENTER OF H5 RIDGE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION AS THE
PERIOD GOES ON. MODELS SHOWING A SIMILAR MOISTURE PLUME AS
YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH H7 THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA...THINK AT LEAST A
SMALL THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS STILL IS WARRANTED DESPITE
PRESENCE OF LARGE RIDGE AS DIV Q FIELDS NOT INDICATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR EAST ANY
STORMS CAN MAKE IT EACH EVENING. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THETA E RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A
SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE EAST IS SOMEWHAT LOW ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR WEAKEST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN DURING THE PERIOD...NOT
REALLY SEEING A LARGE REASON FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWING IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND THINK A TEMPS NEAR LATEST BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS
DATA LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN ORDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE
PAST TWO DAYS. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW
HOLDING TEMPS DOWN...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO ALLOW FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA WITH AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA YET AGAIN.
AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
AND CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT A SEVERAL DAY HEAT
ADVISORY/LOW END HEAT WARNING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS VALUES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA.
CONSIDERED ISSUING HIGHLIGHT NOW...BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO OUTFLOW TODAY...NOT SURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
FAR INTO CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN. FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO FROM MOVING TOO FAR
EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCES SEEM
REASONABLE...BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DAILY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECLINE. HRRR SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND AROUND 7Z WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR FOG AT KMCK
AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINING FOG FREE AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE LOW VFR VIS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 70-80
PERCENT.
SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
PLACING ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1146 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA...EXITING A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST AND NORTH OF THE
STORM ACTIVITY OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE REACHED AS FAR WEST AS
BURLINGTON AND ST. FRANCIS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL PERSIST...BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THE WINDS PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DECLINING. HAVE
SOME DOUBTS ABOUT ANY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE FLAGLER AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CINH. WITH LITTLE FORCING ASIDE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL SPREAD EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF A TRIBUNE TO
MCCOOK LINE.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
HIGHLITE AT THIS TIME AND LET MID SHIFT TAKE LOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS ALREADY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CO...WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
CWA. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS WERE THAT STABLE AIR BEHIND FIRST
EXITING SHORTWAVE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
UNTIL 00Z...HOWEVER HIGH BASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOVES
EAST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LLJ DEVELOPS AROUND 00Z...AND WILL HELP
SUPPORT SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY AROUND 09Z AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST. NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY A REPEAT OF TONIGHT
WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. I KEPT COVERAGE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH TIMING OF INITIATION
STILL FAVORED IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS WEATHER EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCES BEING IN EASTERN COLORADO...IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECLINE. HRRR SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND AROUND 7Z WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR FOG AT KMCK
AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINING FOG FREE AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE LOW VFR VIS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 70-80
PERCENT.
SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
PLACING ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
322 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WX SPECIFICS...HOWEVER IN
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HINT AT SOME OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL IL/IN
PICKING UP AROUND 12Z AS IT REACHES NRN KY...AND WOULD REPRESENT A
CHANCE FOR SHRA OR TSTMS NEAR JKL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE NEXT
ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF ERN KY. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS AFTER 18Z. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY HAVE A WLY COMPONENT...REENGAGING
AFTER 14Z TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD OVER KENTUCKY WITH
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY AS SEEN ON
MOSAIC RADAR. ONE OF THESE HELPED SET OFF A SERIES OF STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOTT COUNTY ON EAST THROUGH PIKE COUNTY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. A FEW CELLS REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE EAST IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS UNDERWAY...THOUGH
WITHOUT THE OUTFLOW COOLED AIR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
ENJOYED LAST EVENING. WITH PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY SEEING SOME DECENT
RAINS THIS EVENING HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS TOWARD DAWN. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF MOST OF THE CWA...HAVE GUIDED POPS AND WX
SIMILARLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ALSO TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPERATURES...AND
ESPECIALLY THE DEWPOINTS...FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD HAVE BEEN SENT WITH A NEW ZFP FOR THE
EAST ON THE WAY...AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AND FOR
AN MCS TO FORM AND MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE TEMPERATURE HAS PROBABLY PEAKED...HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY ANOTHER DAY.
THIS SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE WORD COOL WILL
NOT BE SEEN IN A FORECAST ANYTIME SOON.
THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN IS WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE ABLE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE NAM BUFFER FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING MIXING UP TO ABOUT 20K FEET.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
IS MORE LIKE WHAT IS SEEN IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...AS MEASURED BY THE CAPE...WAS SHOWING 5500 JOULES AT NOON.
THIS IS THE HIGHEST VALUES I HAVE EVER SEEN IN KENTUCKY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT IT TAPERS TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT 2000 JOULES AT 8 PM. IN
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...THE MISSING INGREDIENT TENDS TO BE A
MECHANISM TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION APPEARS TO BE LATER IN THE EVENING AROUND
10 OR 11 PM. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MAX OF OMEGA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THAT TIME. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOMETHING TO FORM
EARLIER...BUT THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EASTERN KY WILL BE ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE TROF IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED STATES. AS
SUCH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
IDEA...WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN 20 PERCENT AT
TIMES. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTREME HEAT WILL EASE AS 8H TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FROM TUESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WX SPECIFICS...HOWEVER IN
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HINT AT SOME OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL IL/IN
PICKING UP AROUND 12Z AS IT REACHES NRN KY...AND WOULD REPRESENT A
CHANCE FOR SHRA OR TSTMS NEAR JKL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE NEXT
ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF ERN KY. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS AFTER 18Z. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY HAVE A WLY COMPONENT...REENGAGING
AFTER 14Z TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEST WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS INTO
QUEBEC...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SEASONAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER...ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS
NOTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUSPECT THESE WILL LINGER FOR A BRIEF
TIME BEFORE EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY 08Z. MAY SEE SOME HINTS OF
RENEWED MID CLOUD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST VERY LATE...BUT
OVERALL A MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS INTO THE 50S COOL SPOTS TO LOW/MID 60S NORTHWEST
LOWER LOOKING JUST FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...AS
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL THRU THE 60S JUST AFTER SUNSET. AREA OF
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUD IS NOW JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND WILL BE
STEADILY TRACKING THRU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MODIFIED
SKY FORECAST TO TIME THIS AREA OF CLOUDS THRU...ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL ENTIRE OUR CWA BY AROUND SUNRISE...WITH SOME
WEAK/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY
LATE MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM COOLING
INTO THE 50S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
ASIDE FROM A FEW FAIR WX CU LINGERING EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC
REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THANKS TO A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. IR
SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW AN AREA OF SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN WISCONSIN
STEADILY TRACKING SE TOWARD OUR CWA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CLOUDS
WILL NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AS WINDS BECOME CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS...
STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S. NICE MID
SUMMER SLEEPING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
STALLED FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WEAKISH HIGH PRESSURE AND W/NW FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SPOTTY CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT
BUT NOTHING TOO LARGE OR VIGOROUS AT THE MOMENT. FURTHER NORTH...CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH SOME CU OVER NE
LOWER AND UPPER MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF OLD CONVECTION ADVANCING
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD (REMNANT OF OLD
CONVECTION) ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
EXPECTED. SIMILAR LOW TEMPS AS LAST NIGHT...UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.
SUNDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH 700 MB TEMPS COOLING A GOOD 3 DEGREES. JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTER UPPER AND/OR NE LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THANKS TO
LAKE BREEZES AND PREVAILING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
PATTERN TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF
UNFOLDING...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS
CONFIRMING HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE OF SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PLAINS
RIDGING BOOKENDED BY EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGH AXES. INITIAL
SCORCHER OF A HEAT DOME LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST...KEEPING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TIED ALONG TIGHT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. MOUNTING
EVIDENCE AT LEAST A PIECE OF CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT WILL EXPAND
(ATTEMPT TO?) NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES MID AND LATE WEEK...WHICH FROM
A CONCEPTUAL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE...SETS THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. OF COURSE...
WHOLE FORECAST REMAINS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY...A MANIFESTATION OF
EXACT THERMAL GRADIENT CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOLS
ACTING UPON IT. FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CENTERED ON TRYING TO
SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE ABOVE.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN IMMEDIATELY AS WEAK WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST LAKES MONDAY EVENING. SOME EVIDENCE THIS MAY SUPPORT
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOSS OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN STELLAR DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ARGUES OTHERWISE. IN ADDITION...ANY POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO RIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES PER
PROPAGATION VECTORS. PERSONAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS TURNED IN RECENT
WEEKS GIVEN ONGOING DRY SPELL...AND SIMPLY NEED TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE
BEFORE "CLOUDING" THE FORECAST WITH ADDITIONAL LOW END POP CHANCES.
AT LEAST MORE CONFIDENCE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO MID WEEK AS HEAT EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES...FORCING THERMAL/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO OUR AREA AS IT
DOES SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY LATE MONDAY NIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO RIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY HANGS UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL SOME CONCERNS JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE...WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET TIED TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXACT MOVEMENT
ALSO RAISES SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...WITH GUIDANCE OFTEN OVERLY
AMBITIOUS DRIVING STORMS NORTH IN SUCH A REGIME AS THEY ARE UNABLE
TO RESOLVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OF COMBINED CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS.
WON`T GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND NORTHEAST...PERHAPS BRINGING WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS TO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE WOULD ALSO YIELD
A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...DISPLACING BETTER STORM POTENTIAL TO OUR
NORTH. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT RAIN THREAT. PLENTY OF TIME FOR FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WEAK
COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN...INCLUDING
APN...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL
ONLY MAKE A VICINITY MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...THE
SETUP IS IN PLACE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO LOCALLY PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
SOME OFFSHORE GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY...AND LAKE BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
ALL SHORELINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MR/LAWRENCE
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES
OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...AND SLIGHT CHANCES
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS MAY NEED TO BE
DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE
HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING POPS. GOLF BALL
HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MONDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH RISING PRESSURES... WHILE 850
MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RELATIVELY STATIC. THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TO FALL AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT
SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 99 DEGREES STILL
EXPECTED... MAINLY SOUTH... AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH... WILL RETAIN A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GOLDSBORO TO WADESBORO. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY VERIFY ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE... BUT
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES 98
TO 101.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP BUT INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY PERSIST. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE HIGH AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD NOT FIRE UNTIL
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRIMARILY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BUT STRENGTH MINIMALLY TRIMMED BY
LESS SEVERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REDUCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. ONE
INCH HAIL A LESSER THREAT.
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH... HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST. CONVECTION AND SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST TO SUNRISE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ONCE
THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. AMPLE MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 FEET
TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. 40 PERCENT CHANCES EAST AND 30 WEST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 1425 METERS AT GREENSBORO
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT COOLING. STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY SEND SOME READINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S... BUT LOW TO
MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST -- A PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS TIME OF YEAR -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IN THE HOT MID LEVEL
RIDGE...ENCOURAGED BY A TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS
MORNING...BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH PATTERNS SUGGEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO - IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
20 SUGGESTS CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
92 TO 99 AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY AND NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (SUB VFR CONDITIONS)... WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM. THUS... HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AND WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
KINT/KGSO... WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS... GIVEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
RESULTANT COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH.
LOOKING BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE RISK OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
341 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN
CHANCES OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF
FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...
AND SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS
MAY NEED TO BE DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING
POPS. GOLF BALL HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT
DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MONDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH RISING PRESSURES... WHILE 850
MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RELATIVELY STATIC. THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TO FALL AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT
SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 99 DEGREES STILL
EXPECTED... MAINLY SOUTH... AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH... WILL RETAIN A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GOLDSBORO TO WADESBORO. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY VERIFY ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE... BUT
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES 98
TO 101.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP BUT INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY PERSIST. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE HIGH AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD NOT FIRE UNTIL
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRIMARILY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BUT STRENGTH MINIMALLY TRIMMED BY
LESS SEVERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REDUCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. ONE
INCH HAIL A LESSER THREAT.
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH... HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST. CONVECTION AND SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST TO SUNRISE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ONCE
THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. AMPLE MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 FEET
TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. 40 PERCENT CHANCES EAST AND 30 WEST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 1425 METERS AT GREENSBORO
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT COOLING. STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY SEND SOME READINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S... BUT LOW TO
MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASINGLY MOST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30 PERCENT BUT
COULD BE PERSUADED TO RAISE POPS ANOTHER 10-20 PERCENT IN LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCE IF A TRIGGER MECHANISM CAN BE IDENTIFIED ALOFT.
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 95-99
DEGREE RANGE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE
SE U.S. (MAINLY THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF) WITH A WEAKER/BAGGIER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING INTO THEN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY STRONG INSOLATION SHOULD TRIGGER A 1:4 TO
1:3 THREAT OF A T-STORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING GRADUALLY EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS-LOWER OH
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS GFS
SUGGEST THICKNESSES 5-10M HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST AFTERNOON
TEMPS GRADUALLY BACKING OFF EACH DAY WITH MID 90S ANTICIPATED
WED-THU AND LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (SUB VFR CONDITIONS)... WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM. THUS... HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AND WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
KINT/KGSO... WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS... GIVEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
RESULTANT COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH.
LOOKING BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE RISK OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
316 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN
CHANCES OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF
FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...
AND SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS
MAY NEED TO BE DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING
POPS. GOLF BALL HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT
DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
MIND-UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE TAKES A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WILL
SLOWLY ABATE AND THAT CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MONDAY STILL A GOOD 20-25M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN VICINITY OF THE CENTURY MARK.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 105
DEGREES NW AND 107-110 IN THE EAST-SE. SINCE THIS WILL BE THE FOURTH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS...WILL GO WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR MONDAY. PREFER WATCH OVER EXTENSION OF
CURRENT WARNING AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS TO HANG AROUND MONDAY TO LIMIT INSOLATION AT TIMES.
ALSO...POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TO INITIATE
SOONER THAN LATE AFTERNOON (THOUGH TIMING OF PERTURBATIONS IN NW
FLOW SUSPECT THIS FAR OUT).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASINGLY MOST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30 PERCENT BUT
COULD BE PERSUADED TO RAISE POPS ANOTHER 10-20 PERCENT IN LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCE IF A TRIGGER MECHANISM CAN BE IDENTIFIED ALOFT.
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 95-99
DEGREE RANGE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE
SE U.S. (MAINLY THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF) WITH A WEAKER/BAGGIER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING INTO THEN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY STRONG INSOLATION SHOULD TRIGGER A 1:4 TO
1:3 THREAT OF A T-STORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING GRADUALLY EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS-LOWER OH
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS GFS
SUGGEST THICKNESSES 5-10M HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST AFTERNOON
TEMPS GRADUALLY BACKING OFF EACH DAY WITH MID 90S ANTICIPATED
WED-THU AND LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (SUB VFR CONDITIONS)... WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM. THUS... HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AND WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
KINT/KGSO... WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS... GIVEN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
RESULTANT COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH.
LOOKING BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... THE RISK OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
152 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ALONG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WHILE THE PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED IN THE VCNTY OF THE OHIO RIVER
THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. BASED ON LATEST RAP AND PWAT
FIELDS...CONVECTION SHOULD END ACRS CENTRAL OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE RAP INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION ACRS CNTRL IL AND SW INDIANA MAY FESTER AS IT TRAVERSES
SE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. SEVERE THREAT
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR.
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING...WENT WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS NOON TO 8 PM FOR HAMILTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...AND
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEK. HAVE CHANCE POPS
ON MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC TUE AND WED AFTN WITH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING A LTL EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PRECIP ON THURSDAY BUT DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING
HAVE KEPT REGION DRY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER
EAST AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FCST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO HEATING. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BY NIGHTFALL THEY WILL GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES. A BOUNDARY IS NOTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO WRN OHIO FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE LATER TODAY
AND POSSIBLY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HARD PRESSED TO SHOW A CLEAR SIGN THAT
STORMS WILL FIRE AND WHEN/IF THEY DO JUST EXACTLY WHERE.
WILL MONITOR THE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THAT
IS OVER ILLINOIS AND FOCUSED ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS POSITIONED
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS CINCINNATI METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ042-051>055-060-062>064-070>073-078>082-088.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR OHZ061-077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND
THE CONTINUED HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WEST
WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND UP TO 10 KNOTS TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 100 79 98 77 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 100 73 98 70 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 101 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 102 76 99 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
234 AM PDT Sun Jul 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue today for the
Idaho Panhandle and far eastern reaches of Washington. Drier
conditions are expected Monday with the next weather system bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
Winds will be gusty on Tuesday. A more summer like pattern is
possible for the end of next week with a warming trend expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday and Sunday night: The main focus through today will be on
the ongoing thunderstorm threat. As of 2AM...showers and isolated
thunderstorms continued to develop along a 850-700mb boundary
which separates the deeper moisture and instability along a line
from northeastern Oregon to northwestern Montana...slicing through
the communities of Mullan...Nez Perce...and Anatone. To the east
and south of this boundary, the atmosphere is rather unstable with
700-500mb lapse rates on the order of 7-8C/km with 0-6km shear
near 50kts. This has lead to a isolated strong cells capable of
small to moderate hail...frequent lightning...gusty winds...and
heavy downpours. Behind this frontal boundary...there is a vort
max lifting through the Northern Mountains of WA which is where we
find the second cluster of showers...but little in the way of
thunder so far. The 06z NAM is handling the situation well and was
utilized through early morning which would suggest perhaps an
isolated strike along the Canadian Border...but by far...the most
active area along to just south of the aforementioned frontal
boundary.
Forcing along the frontal boundary will be loss early Sunday as the
front weakens and slips toward the east. The thunderstorm threat
will then become more diurnally driven and the trends in surface
or boundary layer dewpoints will be the challenge of the day. As
of 1AM...the greatest surface drying was noted along the East Slopes
and into the Wenatchee Area with dewpoints across a majority of
Ern WA and N ID still in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s. Models
are in decent agreement that incr westerly flow this afternoon
will bring a drying trend (sfc dewpoints) from west to east but
timing will be critical. 12km NAM and HRRR suggest the drying will
not punch into the Spokane-Pullman area until after 21z leading to
impressive...uncapped surface based CAPE sprawled across the
eastern third of WA...into portions of the ID Panhandle arnd
18-21z with values on the order of 600-1000 J/kg. This assumes
given surface temperatures warm to a very reachable 70F...which is
more likely along and west of the current pcpn axis stretching
along the southeastern zones. Consequently, this would suggest the
thunderstorm threat will arrive early in the afternoon for
locations like Spokane...Pullman...and Colville then decrease into
the late afternoon and evening as drier dewpoints expand from the
Wenatchee area and western Basin toward the WA/ID border. Given
the slower drying into the Idaho Panhandle...the threat for
thunderstorms will likely linger into the more typically 6-8pm
hours...however coverage will likely become more isolated with
time. 0-6km shear will be on the order of 35-40kts...still
indicating the potential for organized updrafts. Soundings
continue to show CAPE extending into the hail growth zone with
wetbulb zero heights <10k...so did include small hail wording with
the potential for an isolated storm over the ID Panhandle to
produce larger hail. Given the drying the lower levels in
comparison to yesterday`s environment...there is slightly higher
chance for gusty winds with stronger downdrafts or collapsing
cells and also introduced gusty winds after 21z.
Storms should quickly dissipate tomorrow evening with the loss
of heating and continued advection of drier air from the west. The
region will be in between storm systems and skies are expected to
be clear through much of Sunday night. Patchy fog will be possible
across the sheltered northern Valleys...pending they receive pcpn
from afternoon convection. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
warmer across the west and similar to slightly cooler east. /sb
Monday and Tuesday...Model agreement is good in continuing the
progressive summer pattern through the region with another short
wave dropping down the Canadian coastal region and promoting
southwest flow aloft over the forecast area ahead of this latest
wave. For the most part...Monday will be a dry and benign break
period with temperatures warming up over Sunday by a few degrees
in this warm advection pattern. All of the latest models do draw
some pre-trough moisture up from Oregon and focus it over the
southeast zones and Idaho Panhandle late Monday and Monday night.
Surface based instability is anemic...with model soundings
indicating a layer of CIN that will need to be dealt with before
any appreciable risk of convection over the Palouse and
panhandle Monday afternoon...however the trough is shaping up to
focus some dynamic support there and overnight will likely be
able to work with elevated instability to generate showers and
thunderstorms. Inherited low pops have been significantly
increased given the latest model runs in strong agreement
depicting nocturnal activity potential over this area.
Tuesday will bring the next significant short wave passage and it
increasingly appears the main issue will be winds with only minor
nuisance showers and maybe a mountain thunderstorm or two during
the afternoon and evening hours. The upper shortwave will swale
through the region Tuesday morning and push some cool advection
into the forecast area likely promoting breezy to low end windy
conditions near the Cascades and breezy and gusty conditions over
most of the Columbia Basin. Temperatures in the wake of this
mainly dry cool front will decrease a few degrees over Monday`s
highs. This developing situation will need to be monitored for possible
fire weather issues.
Wednesday through Saturday...It appears the progressive wave laden
pattern of the last week will calm down into a more traditional
warm and dry pattern from Wednesday onward. The broad central USA
ridge/upper high which is currently baking the mid-west will
assert it`s influence westward and begin to allow sustained
increasingly southerly flow into the forecast area. This spells
dry and increasingly warm for the later part of the extended
period. Way out on days 6 or 7 there is a possibility of some
monsoonal moisture being drawn into this flow...but at this time
there is no compelling reason to expect it. Dry and increasingly
hot looks like the way to play the far periods at this time. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: As of 06z, the mid level front had pushed through
northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Some convection
lingered in the Lewiston and Pullman areas along the 700mb thermal
axis. This baroclinic region will push eastward overnight bringing
a decrease in the shower activity at the Lewiston, Pullman,
Spokane and Coeur D`Alene airports. A redevelopment of showers is
expected between 18-20z on Sunday as the atmosphere will be
largely uncapped. Some thunderstorms Sunday afternoon may be
capable of small hail and torrential rainfall over the Idaho
Panhandle and far northeast Washington. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 77 53 79 55 74 49 / 60 20 0 10 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 75 52 78 54 72 48 / 60 40 0 20 20 10
Pullman 74 49 79 51 72 46 / 50 40 0 20 20 10
Lewiston 83 57 87 59 82 56 / 50 30 0 20 20 10
Colville 81 52 80 53 76 49 / 60 40 0 10 20 10
Sandpoint 75 50 76 51 71 44 / 80 50 10 30 30 10
Kellogg 75 50 79 53 72 49 / 80 50 10 40 40 10
Moses Lake 84 54 83 56 82 52 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
Wenatchee 84 56 82 57 79 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 83 53 81 54 80 49 / 30 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IF
ANY CONVECTION COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....RIDGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A
NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
FARGO ND TO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN LAST EVENING.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...WITH NOW JUST A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ATMOSPHERE AT MPX AND GRB STILL FAIRLY DRY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH. HEAD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...THE
WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF 70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE ANYWHERE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.6 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATTENTION REMAINS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO
IT. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING OUT.
THIS RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...ALLOWING THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SPEED THAT THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON...LIFTING TO
NEAR DES MOINES BY 00Z AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER MUCH
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. 01.00Z NAM/ECMWF/NSSL WRF AND HIRESW-ARW
MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT SOME 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...0-6KM
AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT BEST IS 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...THINKING MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE. SUPPOSE THERE MIGHT BE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM...BUT WITH THE SHEAR OVERALL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR SEVERE. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT YIELDS CONCERN FOR
MORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL...THE 01.00Z GFS...NAM...UKMET AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW REALLY
ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. NOR DOES
THERE SEEM TO BE ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. THERE IS SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-800MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME SPLIT ON MODELS TO PRODUCE
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE 01.00Z ECMWF...HIRESW-ARW AND NSSL WRF
DO NOT DEVELOP...WHEREAS THE 01.00Z NAM...GFS AND REGIONAL
CANADIAN DO. FEEL THE SCENARIO IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES...6000-7000 FT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS. USING THESE
BASES...LOOKING AT A 1-3KM OR 1-6KM SHEAR...THE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KT PER THE NAM. AS SUCH...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING
FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO DAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY (AROUND 20C)...SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR HIGHS. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...THOUGH...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN IOWA BEGIN ADVECTING NORTH. STILL...THE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WARMER NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH MAY BEGIN
TO FLATTEN OUT AS THE PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING INSTABILITY ON MONDAY ON THE FRONT AND
THE AIRMASS STILL NOT CAPPED MAY ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
IT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY AND NEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES
ALL DAY. NOTE THAT THERE ARE STILL DRY MODELS OUT THERE...SUCH AS
THE 01.00Z HIRESW-ARW. THE CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY EVERYWHERE...
WITH ANY CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE UP TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONVECTION MAKES HIGHS A LITTLE TRICKY ON MONDAY. WARMER 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 22C WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY...BUT
AGAIN CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THIS. FOR NOW STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE INDICES SHOULD BE AROUND 100. WITH
THE WARM FRONT BLOWING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE
70S MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP HOW MODELS
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
DAYS. THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM REMAIN ADAMANT THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TORUGH WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR...CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONLY
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP AT MOST DOWN TO WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NOT SURE IF THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MATTER
MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTH. COMBINE THE FACT THAT CAPPING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...NOTED BY 12C 700MB TEMPS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE. ONLY KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...HEAT IS THE BIG DEAL WITH MORE SUN LIKELY AND 850MB
TEMPS PERHAPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 24C. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME
IN-LINE WITH MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...4TH OF JULY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
BIG STORY REMAINS THE HEAT.
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALL MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. BY 00Z FRIDAY...
500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1.5-2 ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS COMES A HEAT SURGE WITH
IT...SUCH THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS OF SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAISED HIGHS THESE DAYS TO COME CLOSER IN-LINE WITH THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE AND A 30-DAY CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE 4TH OF
JULY IS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE INCREASING RIDGING...INTERACTING
WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME LATER FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
HOW MUCH CONVECTION MIGHT BE ON THE FRONT. IN FACT...MAY END UP
BEING ALL POST-FRONTAL IF AT ALL GIVEN CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOO TO WORK
OUT...WITH THE 01.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN.
HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ON DEWPOINTS AS SOME OF THE
FORECASTED HEAT INDICES GET CLOSE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. IF DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...WHICH GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT-TYPE SITUATION WOULD NOT THINK WOULD HAPPEN...HEAT
INDICES WILL CROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105.
&&
.AVIATION...
1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...ON THE NOSE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SOME ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KRST/KLSE AFTER 09Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MPX/DVN CONTINUE
TO POINT TO A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE THOUGH...AND THE STORMS
WOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THEY WOULD STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BE HIGH IN PCPN CHANCES TOO FAR OUTSIDE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONT ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN ILL.
MEANWHILE...A THIN LINE OF SHRA/TS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETIC BAND FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. THE LATEST
RAP SUGGESTS THAT THIS REGION OF FORCING WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. SO FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY...BUT THE
SHRA/TS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME 4-5SM BR/HZ.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST A BIT BY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING PROMOTING A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN TO KRST/KLSE AS THE WARM FRONT GETS A PUSH
NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WHERE THIS FRONT LIES SUNDAY NIGHT IS
NOT CERTAIN...SO NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A VCSH/VCTS INTO THE
FORECAST AS OF YET. FEEL THERE WILL BE A NEED TO ADD SOME PCPN
MENTION INTO THE TAFS SUN NIGHT-MON WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND OTHER WEATHER VARIABLES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1108 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING
AND COOLING ALOFT. ALSO HAVE A VORT MAX APPROACHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE
COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR STILL INDICATES SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z.
WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
FLOW HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND DEW POINTS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEW POINTS MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND RAISED THE DEW POINTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
HEAT INDICES IN THE NYC METRO REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE REGION AND THE RESULTING VSBY
REDUCTION IF THEY ARE HEAVY. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING SCT COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 18-22Z WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN THE REGION AND THEREFORE LEAVE AS VCTS IN TAFS. THIS IS
ALSO MAKING WIND FORECASTS MORE UNCERTAIN. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. TO
THE WEST OF IT...MORE OF A SW-W FLOW IS LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
FREQUENCY COULD BE MORE INTERMITTENT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME. MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES
THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
747 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
AS MLCAPES INCREASE DUE TO SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CANNOT
RULE OUT LOW COVERAGE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG ANY BL CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES SCT CONVECTION FIRING AFTER 17Z. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TODAY. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35
KTS...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO A
STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY TODAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS WHERE
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT BEFORE THEY RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
MID 90S IN NYC...ALTHOUGH COULD FALL SHORT. THIS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS MAY BE A TAD HIGHER
TODAY...YIELDING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z-13Z...THEN GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION...AND INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES RISE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
713 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
AS MLCAPES INCREASE DUE TO SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CANNOT
RULE OUT LOW COVERAGE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG ANY BL CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES SCT CONVECTION FIRING AFTER 17Z. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TODAY. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35
KTS...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO A
STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY TODAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS WHERE
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT BEFORE THEY RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
MID 90S IN NYC...ALTHOUGH COULD FALL SHORT. THIS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS MAY BE A TAD HIGHER
TODAY...YIELDING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z-13Z...THEN GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION...AND INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES RISE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
637 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
AS MLCAPES INCREASE DUE TO SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CANNOT
RULE OUT LOW COVERAGE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG ANY BL CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES SCT CONVECTION FIRING AFTER 17Z. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TODAY. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35
KTS...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO A
STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY TODAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS WHERE
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT BEFORE THEY RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
MID 90S IN NYC...ALTHOUGH COULD FALL SHORT. THIS DUE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS MAY BE A TAD HIGHER
TODAY...YIELDING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGON WHERE
SOME EARLY MVFR VSBY IN HAZE IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z-13Z...THEN GIVE
WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ACT ON BUILDING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY TO SPARK AFTERNOON TSTMS AT/NEAR MOST TERMINALS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. WEAK COLD FROPA EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1034 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AND STRUGGLE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE ANY HEAT RELATED HEADLINES FOR TODAY AS
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP AT AROUND 100F TO 102F,
FALLING A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA. BECAUSE OF THE NUMBER OF ONGOING
OUTAGES FROM LAST NIGHT`S DERECHOES WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THESE
VALUES IN THE HWO. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST OVER 100 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE FOLLOWED A GFS
AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND TO HOPEFULLY AMELIORATE THE PROBLEMS
THOSE STAT GUIDANCES HAVE HAD IN THIS REGIME. FCST 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES AND 925MB SUGGESTS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS FROM
YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE TROFFINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT TO BE MAINLY IN THE FAR SERN PART OF OUR CWA AND SUGGEST
A WEST WIND AS THE PREVAILING DIRECTION. UPWIND DEW POINTS ARE
MODERATE (EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER). SO BETWEEN THE MIXING
AND DIRECTION EXPECT MOST OF THEM TO BE IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A NEARLY CAPPED/CINED
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST MAX
TEMPS. THE NW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD NOT AID IN CONVERGENCE
EITHER. THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND POPS
WILL BE BELOW TYPICAL JULY CLIMO FOR THE REGION. THERE IS A DECENT
DROP OF THETA E FCST WITH HEIGHT, SO ITS ONE OF THOSE CASES THAT
THE CHANCES OF THUNDER OVERALL ARE LOW, BUT IF ONE CAN GET GOING
MIGHT BE A PULSE TYPE STRONG STORM. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS DOES SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 21Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES
OVER NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, MAY RAISE POPS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK JUST BRUSHING FAR SW PRTION
OF FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE GFS ESPECIALLY IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER MCS MIGHT MOVE OUR WAY
TONIGHT. RIGHT OFF THE BAT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (EVEN IF THIS
IS OPEN ENDED GIVEN HOW OFF THE CHARTS IT WAS THE OTHER NIGHT)
WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF-ARW IS PASSING IT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE COMING OUT OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY CONVECTION. THE CORFIDI VECTOR FORECASTS ARE INDICATING
MORE OF A SEWD PUSH THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH GIVES THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE HAVE OUR HIGHEST POPS THERE.
NO ENHANCED WORDING ATTM AS THE OVERALL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG PLUS UNCERTAINTY AS TO TRACK. WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE MCS CAN CREATE ITS OWN MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DURING TODAY. MIN TEMPS WERE A CONT AND STAT GUIDANCE
BLEND.
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE THE LOWEST DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY THE
LOWEST MAX TEMPS OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
SOUTHERNMOST REACH ON MONDAY. FORECAST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
SUGGEST WE CAN SHAVE 3-5F OFF OF TODAY`S MAX TEMPS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE STAT GUIDANCE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE INSTABILITY RECOVERY BE SW OF OUR CWA. WE
COMPROMISED FOR NOW, KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS
RETURNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AS HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR
SHOULD RETURN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
BEING HARD PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT EITHER
INTO OR THROUGH OUR CWA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS
THE CWA.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD BEING THE HOTTEST WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S POSSIBLE FOR MAXIMA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD FOR TODAY.
LEE TROF WILL SHARPEN TDA...BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
TSTMS WILL FORM. BEST CHC FOR ANY TSTMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVE NEAR KCHO...BUT OWING TO TIMING AND INITIATION CONCERNS...ANY
MENTION OF TSTMS WILL BE OMITTED FROM TAF ATTM. INCRD CVRG OF
MID-LVL CLDS TONIGHT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF FOG ATTM OWING TO
SLOWER DIURNAL COOLING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE.
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI/TFG/LWX
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/TFG
SHORT TERM...TFG
LONG TERM...TFG/LWX
AVIATION...LWX
MARINE...TFG/LWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
A WEAK CONVECTIVE VORT IS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
CONVECTIVE VORT HAS ORIGINS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MCS. THE VORT IS QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THE INTERACTION OF THIS VORT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
INDICATES 100MB ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ALREADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION LI/S ARE ON THE ORDER OF -4
TO -9 C.
THE VORT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS MAY THEN
BE MODULATED/SWEPT EAST BY A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30 PCT) WILL
BE FROM KAZO EAST TO KLAN AND KJXN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL DEVELOP. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP SOME MAY
BECOME STRONG GIVEN 40KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HELPS PRODUCE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER... THERE IS A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND THERE IS ALSO SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM MINNESOTA (AT 7 AM) THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEAK FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE LWR MI. SO I PUT VCTS OVER THE I-94 TAFS TO
COVER THAT. I EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF BTL.
WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER... THERE IS A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND THERE IS ALSO SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM MINNESOTA (AT 7 AM) THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEAK FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE LWR MI. SO I PUT VCTS OVER THE I-94 TAFS TO
COVER THAT. I EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF BTL.
WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
733 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...
UNUSUAL AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID LEVEL
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER PERSISTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY CRASHED TO THE MID 50S TONIGHT BEHIND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... BUT ARE ALREADY RECOVERING... SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WHEN GREENSBORO WAS ABLE TO RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH AND ONCE CURRENT
SOUTH VIRGINIA STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST... CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE FOR LATE MORNING LOOKS GOOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES
OF 40 PERCENT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO... DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST...AND SLIGHT CHANCES
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHEAST POPS MAY NEED TO BE
DOUBLED. MLCAPE VALUES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2500 AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE
HIGH AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH CHANCES MIRRORING POPS. GOLF BALL
HAIL IF STRONG UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP... BUT DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EXPECTING SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. CONVECTION TOO LATE TO BOTHER INSOLATION... AND ALTHOUGH MORE
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CRIMP HEATING. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 99 TO 105. CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
TODAY WILL CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION POTENTIALLY INCREASED
OVER THAT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD LAST DEEP INTO
THE NIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY THE INSTABILITY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KNOCK
SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S... WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MONDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH RISING PRESSURES... WHILE 850
MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RELATIVELY STATIC. THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TO FALL AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT
SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 99 DEGREES STILL
EXPECTED... MAINLY SOUTH... AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH... WILL RETAIN A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GOLDSBORO TO WADESBORO. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY VERIFY ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE... BUT
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES 98
TO 101.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP BUT INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY PERSIST. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE HIGH AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD NOT FIRE UNTIL
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRIMARILY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BUT STRENGTH MINIMALLY TRIMMED BY
LESS SEVERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REDUCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. ONE
INCH HAIL A LESSER THREAT.
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH... HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST. CONVECTION AND SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST TO SUNRISE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ONCE
THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. AMPLE MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 FEET
TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. 40 PERCENT CHANCES EAST AND 30 WEST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 1425 METERS AT GREENSBORO
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT COOLING. STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY SEND SOME READINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S... BUT LOW TO
MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST -- A PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS TIME OF YEAR -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IN THE HOT MID LEVEL
RIDGE...ENCOURAGED BY A TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS
MORNING...BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH PATTERNS SUGGEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO - IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
20 SUGGESTS CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
92 TO 99 AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY AND NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYTIME... BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE LAURINBURG TO GOLDSBORO AFTER 3 PM. DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE WELL AHEAD OF ANY MATURE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION LIKELY
TO PERSIST TO MIDNIGHT OR BEYOND. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE. FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH THE RISK OF
STORMS INCREASING FOR MONDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... AND
CONTINUING WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50
MPH IN AND NEAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
OUTSIDE OF ANY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)
JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:
RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)
GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)
FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT THIS TIME ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST WITH THE SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR TRYING TO DEVELOP A AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MI AND THEN TRACK IT OVER LAKE ERIE AND INTO
NE OH LATE THIS AFTN. LATEST 09Z SREF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING ANY CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST.
HOWEVER...WILL LOOK AT THIS AND MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IF
NECESSARY FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES OTHERWISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
EXPECT FOR TODAY THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE TODAY WITH
CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHILE
AFTERNOON CAPES IN NRN OHIO WILL TOP OUT AT 1000J/KG. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ORIGINAL...NAM12 SHOWS A LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. SREF BEINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THIS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW AS WARM FRONT/TRIGGER WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NAM12 SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL TURN WARM AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS
THE FRONTS IN THE AREA WILL CHANCE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
TRIM POPS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING CHANCE POPS ONLY FAR SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND HEAT DOMINATE THE REGION. A SEMI BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE BIT OF MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND EXPECTING VFR ALL AREAS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND TRY TO
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT
MANSFIELD AND AKRON CANTON.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL QUIET ON THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
KICK UP SOME WINDS. SO WILL KEEP WAVES AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT ON THE
LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1053 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING EXACTLY WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THUS
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO GO
WITH 102 DEGREES AT JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND JACKSON. WILL BUMP
TUPELO UP TO 104 DEGREES. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO
WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS BUT LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRING IS SMALL.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND THE CONTINUED
HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (01/12-02/12Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW TSRA MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MS AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SW-W WINDS 7-10 KTS TODAY...5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
JCL
&&
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
603 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND
THE CONTINUED HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (01/12-02/12Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW TSRA MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MS AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SW-W WINDS 7-10 KTS TODAY...5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 100 79 98 77 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 100 73 98 70 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 101 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 102 76 99 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
445 AM PDT Sun Jul 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue today for the
Idaho Panhandle and far eastern reaches of Washington. Drier
conditions are expected Monday with the next weather system bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
Winds will be gusty on Tuesday. A more summer like pattern is
possible for the end of next week with a warming trend expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday and Sunday night: The main focus through today will be on
the ongoing thunderstorm threat. As of 2AM...showers and isolated
thunderstorms continued to develop along a 850-700mb boundary
which separates the deeper moisture and instability along a line
from northeastern Oregon to northwestern Montana...slicing through
the communities of Mullan...Nez Perce...and Anatone. To the east
and south of this boundary, the atmosphere is rather unstable with
700-500mb lapse rates on the order of 7-8C/km with 0-6km shear
near 50kts. This has lead to a isolated strong cells capable of
small to moderate hail...frequent lightning...gusty winds...and
heavy downpours. Behind this frontal boundary...there is a vort
max lifting through the Northern Mountains of WA which is where we
find the second cluster of showers...but little in the way of
thunder so far. The 06z NAM is handling the situation well and was
utilized through early morning which would suggest perhaps an
isolated strike along the Canadian Border...but by far...the most
active area along to just south of the aforementioned frontal
boundary.
Forcing along the frontal boundary will be loss early Sunday as the
front weakens and slips toward the east. The thunderstorm threat
will then become more diurnally driven and the trends in surface
or boundary layer dewpoints will be the challenge of the day. As
of 1AM...the greatest surface drying was noted along the East Slopes
and into the Wenatchee Area with dewpoints across a majority of
Ern WA and N ID still in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s. Models
are in decent agreement that incr westerly flow this afternoon
will bring a drying trend (sfc dewpoints) from west to east but
timing will be critical. 12km NAM and HRRR suggest the drying will
not punch into the Spokane-Pullman area until after 21z leading to
impressive...uncapped surface based CAPE sprawled across the
eastern third of WA...into portions of the ID Panhandle arnd
18-21z with values on the order of 600-1000 J/kg. This assumes
given surface temperatures warm to a very reachable 70F...which is
more likely along and west of the current pcpn axis stretching
along the southeastern zones. Consequently, this would suggest the
thunderstorm threat will arrive early in the afternoon for
locations like Spokane...Pullman...and Colville then decrease into
the late afternoon and evening as drier dewpoints expand from the
Wenatchee area and western Basin toward the WA/ID border. Given
the slower drying into the Idaho Panhandle...the threat for
thunderstorms will likely linger into the more typically 6-8pm
hours...however coverage will likely become more isolated with
time. 0-6km shear will be on the order of 35-40kts...still
indicating the potential for organized updrafts. Soundings
continue to show CAPE extending into the hail growth zone with
wetbulb zero heights <10k...so did include small hail wording with
the potential for an isolated storm over the ID Panhandle to
produce larger hail. Given the drying the lower levels in
comparison to yesterday`s environment...there is slightly higher
chance for gusty winds with stronger downdrafts or collapsing
cells and also introduced gusty winds after 21z.
Storms should quickly dissipate tomorrow evening with the loss
of heating and continued advection of drier air from the west. The
region will be in between storm systems and skies are expected to
be clear through much of Sunday night. Patchy fog will be possible
across the sheltered northern Valleys...pending they receive pcpn
from afternoon convection. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
warmer across the west and similar to slightly cooler east. /sb
Monday and Tuesday...Model agreement is good in continuing the
progressive summer pattern through the region with another short
wave dropping down the Canadian coastal region and promoting
southwest flow aloft over the forecast area ahead of this latest
wave. For the most part...Monday will be a dry and benign break
period with temperatures warming up over Sunday by a few degrees
in this warm advection pattern. All of the latest models do draw
some pre-trough moisture up from Oregon and focus it over the
southeast zones and Idaho Panhandle late Monday and Monday night.
Surface based instability is anemic...with model soundings
indicating a layer of CIN that will need to be dealt with before
any appreciable risk of convection over the Palouse and
panhandle Monday afternoon...however the trough is shaping up to
focus some dynamic support there and overnight will likely be
able to work with elevated instability to generate showers and
thunderstorms. Inherited low pops have been significantly
increased given the latest model runs in strong agreement
depicting nocturnal activity potential over this area.
Tuesday will bring the next significant short wave passage and it
increasingly appears the main issue will be winds with only minor
nuisance showers and maybe a mountain thunderstorm or two during
the afternoon and evening hours. The upper shortwave will swale
through the region Tuesday morning and push some cool advection
into the forecast area likely promoting breezy to low end windy
conditions near the Cascades and breezy and gusty conditions over
most of the Columbia Basin. Temperatures in the wake of this
mainly dry cool front will decrease a few degrees over Monday`s
highs. This developing situation will need to be monitored for possible
fire weather issues.
Wednesday through Saturday...It appears the progressive wave laden
pattern of the last week will calm down into a more traditional
warm and dry pattern from Wednesday onward. The broad central USA
ridge/upper high which is currently baking the mid-west will
assert it`s influence westward and begin to allow sustained
increasingly southerly flow into the forecast area. This spells
dry and increasingly warm for the later part of the extended
period. Way out on days 6 or 7 there is a possibility of some
monsoonal moisture being drawn into this flow...but at this time
there is no compelling reason to expect it. Dry and increasingly
hot looks like the way to play the far periods at this time. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: The weather will remain active through 03z Monday. A
stalled frontal boundary is focusing showers and isold -tsra frm NE
OR to NW MT...just south of KLWS. Meanwhile...moist s flow has lead
to incr IFR/MVFR stratus across the upper Columbia Basin including
Spokane to CDA. Models are in good agreement that the low clouds
will clear arnd 18-19z however very little heating today will
trigger an early start to -shra and isold -tsra east of KMWH. Isold
-tsra btwn 22-03z will have the potential to produce small hail
and gusty winds. Drier...breezy conditions are expected over the
Cascade East Slopes and western Columbia Basin including KEAT-KMWH.
All convective activity is expected to wane aft 03z with clearing
skies and slight potential for patchy fg north and east of
Spokane-CDA. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 77 53 79 55 74 49 / 60 20 0 10 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 75 52 78 54 72 48 / 60 40 0 20 20 10
Pullman 74 49 79 51 72 46 / 50 40 0 20 20 10
Lewiston 83 57 87 59 82 56 / 50 30 0 20 20 10
Colville 81 52 80 53 76 49 / 60 40 0 10 20 10
Sandpoint 75 50 76 51 71 44 / 80 50 10 30 30 10
Kellogg 75 50 79 53 72 49 / 80 50 10 40 40 10
Moses Lake 84 54 83 56 82 52 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
Wenatchee 84 56 82 57 79 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 83 53 81 54 80 49 / 30 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IF
ANY CONVECTION COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....RIDGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A
NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
FARGO ND TO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN LAST EVENING.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...WITH NOW JUST A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ATMOSPHERE AT MPX AND GRB STILL FAIRLY DRY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH. HEAD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...THE
WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF 70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE ANYWHERE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.6 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATTENTION REMAINS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO
IT. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING OUT.
THIS RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...ALLOWING THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SPEED THAT THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON...LIFTING TO
NEAR DES MOINES BY 00Z AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER MUCH
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. 01.00Z NAM/ECMWF/NSSL WRF AND HIRESW-ARW
MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT SOME 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...0-6KM
AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT BEST IS 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...THINKING MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE. SUPPOSE THERE MIGHT BE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM...BUT WITH THE SHEAR OVERALL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR SEVERE. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT YIELDS CONCERN FOR
MORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL...THE 01.00Z GFS...NAM...UKMET AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW REALLY
ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. NOR DOES
THERE SEEM TO BE ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. THERE IS SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-800MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME SPLIT ON MODELS TO PRODUCE
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE 01.00Z ECMWF...HIRESW-ARW AND NSSL WRF
DO NOT DEVELOP...WHEREAS THE 01.00Z NAM...GFS AND REGIONAL
CANADIAN DO. FEEL THE SCENARIO IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES...6000-7000 FT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS. USING THESE
BASES...LOOKING AT A 1-3KM OR 1-6KM SHEAR...THE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KT PER THE NAM. AS SUCH...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING
FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO DAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY (AROUND 20C)...SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR HIGHS. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...THOUGH...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN IOWA BEGIN ADVECTING NORTH. STILL...THE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WARMER NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH MAY BEGIN
TO FLATTEN OUT AS THE PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING INSTABILITY ON MONDAY ON THE FRONT AND
THE AIRMASS STILL NOT CAPPED MAY ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
IT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY AND NEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES
ALL DAY. NOTE THAT THERE ARE STILL DRY MODELS OUT THERE...SUCH AS
THE 01.00Z HIRESW-ARW. THE CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY EVERYWHERE...
WITH ANY CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE UP TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONVECTION MAKES HIGHS A LITTLE TRICKY ON MONDAY. WARMER 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 22C WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY...BUT
AGAIN CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THIS. FOR NOW STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE INDICES SHOULD BE AROUND 100. WITH
THE WARM FRONT BLOWING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE
70S MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP HOW MODELS
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
DAYS. THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM REMAIN ADAMANT THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TORUGH WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR...CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONLY
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP AT MOST DOWN TO WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NOT SURE IF THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MATTER
MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTH. COMBINE THE FACT THAT CAPPING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...NOTED BY 12C 700MB TEMPS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE. ONLY KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...HEAT IS THE BIG DEAL WITH MORE SUN LIKELY AND 850MB
TEMPS PERHAPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 24C. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME
IN-LINE WITH MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...4TH OF JULY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
BIG STORY REMAINS THE HEAT.
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALL MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. BY 00Z FRIDAY...
500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1.5-2 ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS COMES A HEAT SURGE WITH
IT...SUCH THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS OF SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAISED HIGHS THESE DAYS TO COME CLOSER IN-LINE WITH THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE AND A 30-DAY CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE 4TH OF
JULY IS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE INCREASING RIDGING...INTERACTING
WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME LATER FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
HOW MUCH CONVECTION MIGHT BE ON THE FRONT. IN FACT...MAY END UP
BEING ALL POST-FRONTAL IF AT ALL GIVEN CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOO TO WORK
OUT...WITH THE 01.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN.
HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ON DEWPOINTS AS SOME OF THE
FORECASTED HEAT INDICES GET CLOSE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. IF DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...WHICH GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT-TYPE SITUATION WOULD NOT THINK WOULD HAPPEN...HEAT
INDICES WILL CROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
KARX RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED ECHOS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THERE HAS BEEN NO INDICATION IN THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING AND AS THIS OCCURS...THE CLOUDS AND RADAR ECHOS
SHOULD DISSIPATE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS IOWA. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR. FINALLY...THE GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO GO DRY AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1229 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY...THEN PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND UPDATED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING HEIGHTS THE RESULT.
SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING
AND COOLING ALOFT. ALSO HAVE A VORT MAX APPROACHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE
COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR STILL INDICATES SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z.
WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
FLOW HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND DEW POINTS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEW POINTS MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND RAISED THE DEW POINTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
HEAT INDICES IN THE NYC METRO REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY WANES.
UPPER JET AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST...SENDING THE WEAK SFC FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DRYING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND THIS TIME FRAME.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS UP. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COURTESY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST
AS H7-H5 VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS
BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.
FROM TUE NIGHT-SAT...BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOSGUIDE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL MAYBE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE REGION AND THE RESULTING VSBY
REDUCTION IF THEY ARE HEAVY. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING SCT COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 18-22Z WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN THE REGION AND THEREFORE LEAVE AS VCTS IN TAFS. THIS IS
ALSO MAKING WIND FORECASTS MORE UNCERTAIN. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. TO
THE WEST OF IT...MORE OF A SW-W FLOW IS LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
FREQUENCY COULD BE MORE INTERMITTENT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM.
.TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM.
.TUES NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME. MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE STRONGER LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZES
THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. EXPECTED TOTAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REMAINS LESS THEN 1/10 INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AS PW WILL BE NEAR 1.3 INCHES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER MONDAY. AS SUCH...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LESS
LIKELY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE QPF
LIKELY WILL BE LESS THAN A 1/2 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FULL MOON ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY JULY 1...
LOCATION..........FORECAST HIGH...RECORD HIGH...YEAR
CENTRAL PARK NY.........94............100.......1901
LAGUARDIA NY............98.............97.......1964
KENNEDY NY..............92............102.......1963
NEWARK NJ...............97............100.......1963
ISLIP NY................91.............87.......2001
BRIDGEPORT CT...........90.............95.......1963
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND HEAT
AGAIN ON MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH. HRRR FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
EARLIER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE WRF AND NAM SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER AFTER WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING... BUT ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AGAIN. WHILE SPC HAD MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY... ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTED MONDAY... HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS... WHILE TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED... GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
TRENDS. MONDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE THE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY... DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WILL STILL WARRANT AT
LEAST THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REACH HEAT
INDICES OF 110-113 DEGREES THEREFORE A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
BAKER
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME RELIEF HERE AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE STATE
WILL BREAK DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WILL NOT QUITE GET INTO THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES WHILE IN THIS
PATTERN BUT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS.
EVEN WITHOUT FRONT...ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESP AS MEAN RH INCREASES ON THURS.
PREV FCST NO TOO FAR OFF. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ON TUES
AND WED AS CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PULLING DOWN GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM ON TUES IF DEW
POINTS DONT MIX OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONTINUED. HAVENT FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE TROPICS EITHER. ATLANTIC
BASIN LOOKS QUIET PER THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...SOME ACTION LIKELY
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT HERE.
SNELSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTH
AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. THE LOWEST RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY 10 MPH OR LESS...THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OR
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MONDAY.
BAKER
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MOST NORTHERN SITES
APART FROM KATL HAVE BEEN HAVING VRB LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNW TO NW AND STAY UNDER
10KTS. KATL HAS BEEN MOSTLY NNW BUT HAS HAD INTERMITTENT VRB
PERIODS. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINLY STAY NNW TO NW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY ABOVE 15KFT WITH FEW070
POTENTIALLY THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... BUT TOO LOW OF CHANCE ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 102 72 99 / 20 20 20 30
ATLANTA 77 99 75 95 / 30 20 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 73 93 67 91 / 20 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 72 100 70 96 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 78 100 75 96 / 30 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 76 99 73 96 / 20 20 20 30
MACON 74 101 73 97 / 30 30 30 30
ROME 73 103 70 98 / 30 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 72 98 71 96 / 30 20 20 30
VIDALIA 78 99 78 96 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE HEAT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AS
EXPECTED... WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO RAISE DEWPOINTS
IN PARTS OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE. THE 850MB TEMP FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND CONSIDERING THE INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS... MAX TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE EXTREME LEVELS SET YESTERDAY. RESULTANT
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-110 DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA STILL SUPPORT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING OUT SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES THERE. FOR CONVECTION... THE
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY NEAR THE SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PROGGED SREF
MUCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND BETTER CHANCE FOR AN INFLUENCE OF
LIFT FROM EITHER THE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OR AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
LATER TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST... FOUND IT JUSTIFIED TO RAISE POPS
TO LOW END CHANCE LATE TODAY. WILL MONITOR LATEST HRRR RUNS TO
GET BETTER IDEA ON LOCATION FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE AND BEING SO DRY BELOW 700MB... ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES...
WILL SEE THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUE AS THE 594DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /WITHIN A HALF DEGREE/...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES..EXPECT
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. NOT ENOUGH OF
A DIFFERENCE TO NOTICE THOUGH...ITS STILL HOT. WITH RIDGE WEAKENING
ON MONDAY AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER...WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES.
GFS AND NAM DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE. GIVEN OBSERVED DEW POINTS YESTERDAY IN THE 50S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 40S...LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
BY DOING THIS THOUGH...SOME PLACES COME IN JUST BELOW THE 105 AND
110 HEAT INDEX CRITERIA FOR THE THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING...RESPECTIVELY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEW POINT FORECAST
THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION...HAVE HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-108 RANGE FOR MONDAY FOR SOME OF THE CWA SO WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA FOR MONDAY.
BESIDES THE HEAT...CONVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP YESTERDAY...AND NOT
JUST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. WITH SFC TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
TODAY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THAN YESTERDAY SO INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE. SPC HAS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE AREA WITH
THE BEST CAPE. FORECAST MIXED CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG....SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. EVEN WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY...RIDGE WILL BE WORKING TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION SO
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SEVERITY. COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM THOUGH AND
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND. WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPPER
RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS AGAIN ON MONDAY...HAD
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFTER
00Z TUESDAY...IN THE LONG TERM.
11
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE GRADUAL
BREAKDOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OF HISTORY MAKING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THESE PRECISELY DUE TO FEEDBACK ISSUES AT
TIMES. LOOKS AS THOUGH FIRST IN A SERIES MOVES OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TRAJECTORY SUGGESTING MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THU EVENING ENHANCING POP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE IN SOME MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
DESPITE THE BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
MUCH HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND HEAT INDICES COULD REMAIN AN
ISSUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEESE
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN THE MODELS...BUT THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND OBSERVED VALUES FROM
YESTERDAY. WITH LOWERED DEW POINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
50S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. FUELS ARE DRY SO HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MOST NORTHERN SITES
APART FROM KATL HAVE BEEN HAVING VRB LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNW TO NW AND STAY UNDER
10KTS. KATL HAS BEEN MOSTLY NNW BUT HAS HAD INTERMITTENT VRB
PERIODS. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINLY STAY NNW TO NW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY ABOVE 15KFT WITH FEW070
POTENTIALLY THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... BUT TOO LOW OF CHANCE ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 107 73 103 74 / 30 30 20 20
ATLANTA 104 78 99 75 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 96 72 93 67 / 30 30 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 103 69 100 70 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 102 77 101 74 / 30 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 101 76 99 74 / 30 30 20 30
MACON 103 73 101 75 / 30 30 20 20
ROME 105 72 102 71 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 103 71 99 72 / 30 30 20 20
VIDALIA 101 79 99 77 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1218 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE HEAT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AS
EXPECTED... WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO RAISE DEWPOINTS
IN PARTS OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE. THE 850MB TEMP FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND CONSIDERING THE INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS... MAX TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE EXTREME LEVELS SET YESTERDAY. RESULTANT
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-110 DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA STILL SUPPORT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING OUT SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES THERE. FOR CONVECTION... THE
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY NEAR THE SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PROGGED SREF
MUCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND BETTER CHANCE FOR AN INFLUENCE OF
LIFT FROM EITHER THE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OR AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
LATER TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST... FOUND IT JUSTIFIED TO RAISE POPS
TO LOW END CHANCE LATE TODAY. WILL MONITOR LATEST HRRR RUNS TO
GET BETTER IDEA ON LOCATION FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE AND BEING SO DRY BELOW 700MB... ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
.DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES...
WILL SEE THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUE AS THE 594DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /WITHIN A HALF DEGREE/...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES..EXPECT
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. NOT ENOUGH OF
A DIFFERENCE TO NOTICE THOUGH...ITS STILL HOT. WITH RIDGE WEAKENING
ON MONDAY AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER...WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES.
GFS AND NAM DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE. GIVEN OBSERVED DEW POINTS YESTERDAY IN THE 50S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 40S...LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
BY DOING THIS THOUGH...SOME PLACES COME IN JUST BELOW THE 105 AND
110 HEAT INDEX CRITERIA FOR THE THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING...RESPECTIVELY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEW POINT FORECAST
THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION...HAVE HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-108 RANGE FOR MONDAY FOR SOME OF THE CWA SO WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA FOR MONDAY.
BESIDES THE HEAT...CONVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP YESTERDAY...AND NOT
JUST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. WITH SFC TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
TODAY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THAN YESTERDAY SO INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE. SPC HAS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE AREA WITH
THE BEST CAPE. FORECAST MIXED CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG....SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. EVEN WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY...RIDGE WILL BE WORKING TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION SO
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SEVERITY. COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM THOUGH AND
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND. WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPPER
RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS AGAIN ON MONDAY...HAD
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFTER
00Z TUESDAY...IN THE LONG TERM.
11
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE GRADUAL
BREAKDOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OF HISTORY MAKING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THESE PRECISELY DUE TO FEEDBACK ISSUES AT
TIMES. LOOKS AS THOUGH FIRST IN A SERIES MOVES OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TRAJECTORY SUGGESTING MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THU EVENING ENHANCING POP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE IN SOME MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
DESPITE THE BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
MUCH HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND HEAT INDICES COULD REMAIN AN
ISSUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEESE
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN THE MODELS...BUT THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND OBSERVED VALUES FROM
YESTERDAY. WITH LOWERED DEW POINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
50S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. FUELS ARE DRY SO HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1927 72 2003 76 1990 58 1937
1936
KATL 99 1954 73 2003 78 1947 59 1938
1937
KCSG 99 2007 78 1966 78 1998 59 1958
1998 1950
1990
KMCN 103 1954 74 1924 78 1931 59 1923
1897
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1925 65 1943 76 1931 56 1937
KATL 99 1954 68 1943 79 1996 58 1937
KCSG 101 1990 72 1981 78 1996 59 1950
1970
KMCN 103 1954 77 1943 79 1931 58 2008
1937
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1925 70 1943 77 1978 58 1932
KATL 101 1925 74 1943 77 1931 60 1881
KCSG 101 1970 75 1988 77 1997 64 1950
1996
KMCN 104 1970 78 1944 77 1931 63 2010
1919
1918
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SPOTTY MVFR DUE TO
REDUCED VSBY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HZ FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EVEN THOUGH VSBYS MAY BECOME P6SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY
HOWEVER...COULD SEE VRB OR A NNE OB THIS MORNING. WITH WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SW THOUGH...THESE NNE WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY BUT CHANCE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBY...WIND
DIRECTION AND CONVECTION NOT OCCURRING AT ATL.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 106 73 103 74 / 30 30 20 20
ATLANTA 104 78 99 75 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 98 72 93 67 / 30 30 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 105 69 100 70 / 20 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 103 77 101 74 / 30 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 103 76 99 74 / 30 30 20 30
MACON 105 73 101 75 / 30 30 20 20
ROME 107 72 102 71 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 104 71 99 72 / 30 30 20 20
VIDALIA 103 79 99 77 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRIME FOCUS CONTS ON ONGOING SVR
CONVECTION AND UPDATES WITH CANCLG WW443 IN OVERTURNED/STABILIZED
WAKE. PRIME DCAPE/MLCAPE RESERVOIR AND STORM MOTION FAVORING
PERSISTENCE WRT COLD POOL MAINTENANCE ACRS SERN CWA. STORMS THAT
FIRED ACRS NWRN CWA/SWRN LWR MI IN REGN OF LESSER CAPE...THOUGH
OFFSET WITH BETTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG PERIPHERY OF MORE RAPID
40-50 KT MID- TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACRS WCNTL LWR MI INTO LK ERIE.
NAM HINTS AT POTNL WAVE LATE TONIGHT RIDING PERIPHERY OF MIDLVL
RIDGE WITH STRENGTHENING/VEERED LLJ TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...PRIME FOCUS APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA WITH ASSOCD
GRTR OVERNIGHT MUCAPE RESERVOIR...AND WL KEEP ERLY AM HOURS
DRY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW. PRIMARY FOCUS ON SRN GRTLKS REGN
APPEARS TO BE ON DIURNAL DRIVEN AFTN/ERLY EVE CONVECTION FOR
DY2/3 AS THETA-E RESERVOIR BEGINS TO ORIENT GRDLY MORE SW-NE PER
GRDLY BACKING 0-1KM FLOW...WITH MESOBNDRY/LAKE BREEZE FNT/UPSTREAM
MESOVORT EJECTIONS CONTG TO ALL PLAY PSBL ROLES IN INITIATION
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMIZED DIURNAL DESTAB.
&&
.LONG TERM... / TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY /
...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO RENEWED TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST/WEST
COASTS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOCAL AREA WILL STILL HAVE LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE NERN FRINGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS / LOW
LVL THETA-E RIDGE STILL "IN THE VICINITY" DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEAK DIFFUSE LOW LVL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED DIFFICULT TO
TIME LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LIKELY
COMBINE TO FORCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIKELY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN ATTEMPTING TO
MAKE A RUN AT THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOLLOWING
CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE ARE TOO MANY
MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES WRT TO MCS DEVELOPMENT/TRACK/TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED COMPOSITE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS THAT MAKE FORECASTING POPS/WX
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN VERY DIFFICULT. AS A RESULT DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS/OUTFLOWS ALSO MAKES HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH NO CHANGES MADE. UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HEAT RELATED HEADLINES EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAT/HUMIDITY CONCERNS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HELP TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE AND FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/UPDATE...
18 UTC TAFS AND PRIOR/1219 PM ZFP UPDATE. INCRSD UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AMID STRONG INSTABILITY PER RAP/SREF/MODIFIED
SNDGS..NOTED EARLIER RAP PROG BIASED NEGATIVELY/UNDERESTIMATING WRT
OBS MLCAPE. AT PRESENT POOL OF STRONG 3500-4500 J/KG MLCAPE LAID
ACRS NRN INDIANA INTO WRN CWA. DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
MODEST...WITH HIEST VALUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CWA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER NWRLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. STILL
MATURING COLD POOL MERGERS ASSOCD W/UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROVIDE
PRIMARY DMG WIND THREAT LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE ACRS SWRN HALF OF CWA.
INITIATION OF NRN IL CONVECTION COMMENCED RAPIDLY AROUND 1430 UTC
NEAR KSQI PER OUTFLOW/PSBL GRAVITY WAVE EMISSION FROM ERLIER KOTM
CONVECTIVE BEHEMOTH...AND ASSOCD MARKED INCRS SWRLY LLVL FLOW PER
KDVN VWP. TIMING CONVECTION WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN INTO IFR
MET RANGE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE...INTO KSBN 19-21 UTC AND
ABOUT AN HOUR THEREAFTER INTO KFWA WITH SUB-SEVERE GUSTS/SQUALLS
NOTED WITH INIT ISSNC...AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POTN INCRS
TO GTE 50KTS GUSTS AS NEEDED. THEREAFTER VFR ANTICIPATED... SAVE FOR
PSBL SHALLOW RADIATIONAL BR POTNL NEAR DAYBREAK PER WETTED
GROUND/HIGH XOVER TEMPS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
152 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.AVIATION/UPDATE...
18 UTC TAFS AND PRIOR/1219 PM ZFP UPDATE. INCRSD UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AMID STRONG INSTABILITY PER RAP/SREF/MODIFIED
SNDGS..NOTED EARLIER RAP PROG BIASED NEGATIVELY/UNDERESTIMATING WRT
OBS MLCAPE. AT PRESENT POOL OF STRONG 3500-4500 J/KG MLCAPE LAID
ACRS NRN INDIANA INTO WRN CWA. DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
MODEST...WITH HIEST VALUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CWA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER NWRLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. STILL
MATURING COLD POOL MERGERS ASSOCD W/UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROVIDE
PRIMARY DMG WIND THREAT LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE ACRS SWRN HALF OF CWA.
INITIATION OF NRN IL CONVECTION COMMENCED RAPIDLY AROUND 1430 UTC
NEAR KSQI PER OUTFLOW/PSBL GRAVITY WAVE EMISSION FROM ERLIER KOTM
CONVECTIVE BEHEMOTH...AND ASSOCD MARKED INCRS SWRLY LLVL FLOW PER
KDVN VWP. TIMING CONVECTION WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN INTO IFR
MET RANGE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE...INTO KSBN 19-21 UTC AND
ABOUT AN HOUR THEREAFTER INTO KFWA WITH SUB-SEVERE GUSTS/SQUALLS
NOTED WITH INIT ISSNC...AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POTN INCRS
TO GTE 50KTS GUSTS AS NEEDED. THEREAFTER VFR ANTICIPATED... SAVE FOR
PSBL SHALLOW RADIATIONAL BR POTNL NEAR DAYBREAK PER WETTED
GROUND/HIGH XOVER TEMPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...WITH OTHER CONCERN CENTERING ON THE ONGOING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG STALLED WEAK BOUNDARY. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MCS FROM LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH RAPIDLY
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN MISSOURI. A SECONDARY SMALLER MCS
IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN A WEAKENING STATE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING STRENGTH/POSITION OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DECAYING SYSTEMS WITH INDIVIDUAL INITIALIZATIONS VASTLY DIFFERENT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LEND SOME LOW CONFIDENCE TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TODAY. HOWEVER...BACKING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO ADVECT
THESE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS FROM SRN IOWA/NRN MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR INTERACTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS OF HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETAE AIR SETTING UP FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3500 J/KG.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MORE
PRONOUNCED SHEAR PROFILE...BUT NAM PROGS STILL SUGGEST 30 TO 35
KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. CONVECTIVE
MODE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVES...AND WHETHER UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE MARGINAL/WEAKER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES. HIRES ARW HINTS AT POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR CLIPPING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW. INSTABILITY
PROFILES ALONE WARRANT CONTINUED SEVERE MENTION IN HWO THIS
MORNING...AND GREATEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINING...WILL HOLD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DID ADD LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING WITH MORE
POTENT NEBRASKA SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY AIDING IN ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING CIN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH THIS CHANCE
TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH SLIGHT NORTHWARD CREEP OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TODAY...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WITH FORECASTED UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...THIS WOULD PRODUCE NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH APPARENT TEMPS APPROACHING 100. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/DEVELOPMENT ADDS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT FORECASTED APPARENT
TEMPS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
ON MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AND FURTHER SLIGHT
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING WITH POTENTIAL WEAK CAPPING
ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED GIVEN WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM... /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. UNTIL FULLY TAKING CONTROL BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT TRAVERSING NW TO SE THROUGH THE FLOW. EXACT DETAILS AND
TIMING OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OR MCV FOR LEFTOVER CONVECTION REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO SORT OUT...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SLGT CHC POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
THE AREA BEFORE FURNACE GETS TURNED BACK UP HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK WELL THROUGH THE 90S AND POSSIBLY REACH 100 OR HIGHER
AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND. HAVE WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALLBLEND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT COOL BIAS (ALTHOUGH 00Z SETUP DIDN`T COME OUT OVERLY COLD).
HEAT RELATED HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION/UPDATE...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MORE OF THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
EASTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS TO AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. KGLD HAS A BETTER CHANCE
TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SO I WILL LEAVE VCTS
MENTION FROM 01Z-05Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA WITH AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA YET AGAIN.
AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
AND CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT A SEVERAL DAY HEAT
ADVISORY/LOW END HEAT WARNING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS VALUES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA.
CONSIDERED ISSUING HIGHLIGHT NOW...BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO OUTFLOW TODAY...NOT SURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
FAR INTO CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN. FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO FROM MOVING TOO FAR
EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCES SEEM
REASONABLE...BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DAILY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS TO AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. KGLD HAS A BETTER CHANCE
TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SO I WILL LEAVE VCTS
MENTION FROM 01Z-05Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM/CJS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW THAT THE MCS THAT
HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA HAS EXITED TO THE EAST SO UPDATED TO
TAKE POPS OUT OF THE THE EARLY DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A LITTLE BETTER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER LEAVING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN 100. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
THAT DID GET SOME RAIN WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOOT INTO THE LOW
100S ANYWAY...KEEPING THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
ALSO UPDATED IN TONIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST RUN OF THE
HRRR BRINGING IN THE MCS IN IL. WITH A PROGGED TIMING OF 20Z TO 21Z
MOVING INTO THE CWA...RECENT IR AND VIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION AS WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
REDEVELOPING HERE IN EAST KENTUCKY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SUPPLIED MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS COULD REFIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
VFR CONDITIONS RESIDE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. THE ONE
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS UPSTREAM OVER NORTH WESTERN IN AS A MCS
TAKES SHAPE AND BEGINS TRACKING SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS WELL
AS JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 22Z AND HAVE PUT THUNDER OVER JKL AND VCTS OVER LOZ. THIS WILL
PUT JKL IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SME WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH. JKL AND LOZ WILL SEE
MVFR FOG DUE TO THIS AFTERNOONS RAINFALL. BY 13Z TOMORROW...FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CU AT 5 KFT. AT THIS TIME THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHEN THE NEXT MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DUE TO THIS PATTERN IN PLACE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS JACKSON KY
1214 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW THAT THE MCS THAT
HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA HAS EXITED TO THE EAST SO UPDATED TO
TAKE POPS OUT OF THE THE EARLY DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A LITTLE BETTER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER LEAVING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN 100. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
THAT DID GET SOME RAIN WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOOT INTO THE LOW
100S ANYWAY...KEEPING THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
ALSO UPDATED IN TONIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST RUN OF THE
HRRR BRINGING IN THE MCS IN IL. WITH A PROGGED TIMING OF 20Z TO 21Z
MOVING INTO THE CWA...RECENT IR AND VIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION AS WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
REDEVELOPING HERE IN EAST KENTUCKY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SUPPLIED MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS COULD REFIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1206 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW THAT THE MCS THAT
HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA HAS EXITED TO THE EAST SO UPDATED TO
TAKE POPS OUT OF THE THE EARLY DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A LITTLE BETTER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER LEAVING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN 100. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
THAT DID GET SOME RAIN WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOOT INTO THE LOW
100S ANYWAY...KEEPING THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY.
ALSO UPDATED IN TONIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWEST RUN OF THE
HRRR BRINGING IN THE MCS IN IL. WITH A PROGGED TIMING OF 20Z TO 21Z
MOVING INTO THE CWA...RECENT IR AND VIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LATER ARRIVAL.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION AS WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
REDEVELOPING HERE IN EAST KENTUCKY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SUPPLIED MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS COULD REFIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MCS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY SAGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THIS AREA GIVEN THE STILL SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS THE SUDDEN
HIT THIS AREA TOOK FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT A
DENT IN THE OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEEFED UP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST CHANCE AS WELL. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT CURRENT
SURFACE MAP HAS A GENERAL SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER MCS OVER
WESTERN IL...IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE WELL
BEHAVED AT THE MOMENT...HOWEVER HAVE SEEN 1 REPORT RELAYED EARLIER OF
1/2 INCH HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH ARE STARTING TO SHOW A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. LAPS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE KY/WV LINE WITH BETTER THETA PACKING NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...SO WE MAY SEE THE NRN HALF OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX
BECOME DOMINANT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SRN FLANK. REGARDLESS...HAVE
RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
IL REPRESENTS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH RUNNING BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL IL...AND IN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...
STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SOME OF THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SRN IN
AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL KY. LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS SOME OF THESE REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING EAST INTO WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS TEMPS BEGIN CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN ON
THEIR WAY TO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WIT THE IDEA OF THE FRONT
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
ENERGY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. STILL...
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS FROM THE CONSENSUS TO RAISE POPS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME HINTS OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...SO WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON WHERE...WHEN...AND IF CONVECTION INITIATES...WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE PLAINS
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE COAL FIELDS DURING THE DAY...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AROUND
PEAK HEATING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...SO ANY ROGUE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE US
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION...POSSIBLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPULSES LEADING TO CONVECTION IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY ON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AGAIN AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES WITH THEIR IMPULSES RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS
LIKELY... AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB 20 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...WHERE 20 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORESEEN. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
IN THE 90S...BUT AT LEAST BELOW THE 100+ LEVELS SEEN RECENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSTMS MOVING INTO NERN KY SHOULD PUSH INTO WV BY AROUND 18Z.
THE NEXT ISSUE CENTERS AROUND SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MODELS AGAIN
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO TRIGGER TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF ERN KY. WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS
AFTER 20Z RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z AFTER WHICH ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD DROP TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
LOOK TO BECOME MORE WLY BY MIDDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
A WEAK CONVECTIVE VORT IS SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
CONVECTIVE VORT HAS ORIGINS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MCS. THE VORT IS QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THE INTERACTION OF THIS VORT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
INDICATES 100MB ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ALREADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION LI/S ARE ON THE ORDER OF -4
TO -9 C.
THE VORT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS MAY THEN
BE MODULATED/SWEPT EAST BY A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30 PCT) WILL
BE FROM KAZO EAST TO KLAN AND KJXN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL DEVELOP. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP SOME MAY
BECOME STRONG GIVEN 40KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HELPS PRODUCE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A MINOR WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THUS DOESN/T
DEVELOP PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS NRN LWR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TODAY OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND NRN INDIANA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES NEWD AND PUSHES
THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S RELATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THAT
MEANS THAT POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORT STORY IS THE
EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (MAY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL).
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MORE DETAIL IS SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OFF SHORE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS EJECTED BY THE SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIKELY IT WILL TOUCH OFF
MCS TYPE CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 850 TO 300 MB
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TRACK THE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY ONE THAT GETS UNDER THESE STORMS
WILL SURELY GET SOAKED AND THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE OUR SYSTEM FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ALSO GETS EJECTED BY YET ANOTHER POWER HOUSE STORM FROM
KAMCHATKA (THAT IS WHERE THE SYSTEM WAS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING)
IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE EJECTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ALSO CLIMBS
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IN
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN THAT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PICTURE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. I
WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH OF A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS
SURFACE TEMPS ARE MUCH TO COLD (AS PER ON GOING 8 DEGREE MEAN
NEGATIVE BIAS FOR THE HIGH TEMP THE LAST HALF OF JUNE). THE ECMWF
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER WHAT SHOULD BE REALITY. THE BIAS OF THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST HALF OF JUNE FOR THE GRR CWA ON THE HIGH TEMP
WAS NEAR ZERO DEGREES WITH THE MEAN ERROR OF 2 DEGREES.
THE BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEN HOT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THRU 18Z MON. HOWEVER A WEAK
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE AFTN AT OR NEAR OUR SSE
TERMINALS (BTL AND JXN). HOWEVER MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD STAY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA.
AFTER THAT THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS GO CALM OR NEAR CALM BUT NOT
ENOUGH POTENTIAL IN THIS TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT
THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN NEAR
KMKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WHICH MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Short Range (Tonight through Tuesday)...
MCV left over from last nights convection over western KS has
sparked isolated storms over central KS. MCV is moving slowly east
under a weak steering flow less than 15kts. While the system is
working into a more unstable airmass will likely need the
development of a good sized cold pool to send any additional
activity into the western CWA. 18Z NAM and latest HRRR provide
enough incentive to mention slight chance pops into the evening
hours for far western counties. Rest of CWA should be quiet
overnight.
For the past several days models have forecast "cooler" temperatures
for the CWA. This is mainly the result of deeper tropical air now
over TX advecting slowly north and cooling temperatures up through
the mid levels. But with the somewhat cooler temperatures spells an
increase in dewpoints/humidity levels so not a good trade off. There
are some signals that warrant adding slight chance pops to the
southern CWA for late Monday afternoon/evening as a couple of weak
vorticity lobes/shortwaves may lift through the CWA. Combination of
steep lapse rates and pockets of deeper moisture around h7 per BUFR
soundings provide the background for pulse type convection
initiating during peak heating and hanging around till mid evening.
Gusty winds and small hail certainly possible. Have not strayed too
far form previous temperature forecast. Heat Index values not high
enough to warrant any advisory.
Slightly warmer air expected to drift back into the CWA on Tuesday
as the deeper tropical plume of moisture/cooler temperatures aloft
peels eastward. Heat Index values crank back into the 100-106 range.
And the drought continues with nearly zero chance of rain.
MJ
Wednesday - Sunday:
Models remain in very good agreement through the extended depicting
the upper ridge expanding and strengthening through the week across
the central CONUS. So the extended range forecast continues to look
hot with little, if any, chance of any organized area of
precipitation. So have kept the entire period dry with temperatures
around 100 degrees for most locations. There may be days that are a
bit warmer and cooler but all in all afternoon highs will be
flirting with the century mark day after day through Sunday. The
later part of the week looks warmer for the entire area as greater
thickness values spread eastward and drape themselves across the
area. But still think highs will be in the 100 to 102 range.
If there is one positive about this heat wave it is that dewpoints
haven`t been extreme. This is most likely due to the drought and the
overall lack of evapotranspiration. But with dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s, the heat has not been as bad as in years past. This has
kept heat index values lower but we`re still expecting heat index
values to range from 100 to 104 through the extended. This is below
advisory levels for any given day. But with this heat being
prolonged, and in the 100 to 104 range, an advisory may be needed
through the end of the week as the cumulative effects of the heat
continue to mount.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...
For 18Z TAFs, will maintain VFR conditions with a general south to
southwest wind <10kts during the period. While the current forecast
is dry there is growing concern that isolated convection could form
late this afternoon over east central/northeast KS and adjacent
nw/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows an apparent vorticity
max over central KS drifting east. There is also a weak boundary
extending from northeast KS into central MO. As convective
temperatures are reached isolated convection is certainly possible.
Since coverage is expected to be isolated will monitor for any
development and amend TAFs if necessary.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT COULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS. SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING THIS EVENING WITH
STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING AGITATION
IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO SOUND TO UPSTATE
SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID
CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
LOCALLY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION
THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO
COUNTY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW
HEIGHTENED CONVG INTO THE TROUGH IN THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE
MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC SO THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH
RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE 100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES
OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES
BUT THE MLCAPES OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG...AND SHOW THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER
THAN THE OBVIOUS FORECAST/POP RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FEELS OF HEIGHTENED IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL
TURN SEVERE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DUE THE EXTREME UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION EXPECTED.
NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.
EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
BY THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH
OF 40KT 500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE
STORMS DO FIRE THEY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED
`THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE` BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME
VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS HERE IN THE
CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH HOWEVER THESE VALUES
WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY
STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY
`FAT` CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C FAVORING THE GROWTH OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR HAIL IN THE LATEST
SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY
HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO
BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE RESULTING FROM BAND OF
WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY. THE EXTREME HEAT IN
PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST
DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE TORNADO THREAT
NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION A DECENT
POSSIBILITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST TIMING WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES
AWAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH MAY
ALSO REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
THROUGH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. TRIGGERS INCLUDE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM SWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RIGHT NOW BORDERLINE
ON MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE
AS TO IF AND WHEN WE ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA UNDER NORTHEAST
EDGE OF 5H RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
BY A 5H TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA MORE OR LESS IN DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUD. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK TO ENHANCE
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. POP VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES EARLIER. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLING A
LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMEDIATE MVFR
FROM HAZE AT ALL SITES. VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE INTENSE HEAT...AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS PLACE ALL TAF SITES IN A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE CB MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR NOW WILL HAVE
TO AMEND TO +TSRA ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO FORM. ANTICIPATE SO MVFR
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IFR ONLY IN LOCATION IN OR NEAR
DOWNDRAFT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STAGNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
AND OVER THE WATERS AT THIS TIME. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE
WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE
MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEST ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHOW
IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR MARINE
WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 15 KT. PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL ENHANCED PIEDMONT TROUGH...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND
SUBTLE EXPANSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASES IN
SPEEDS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST OCCASIONAL 20 KT IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR
THU/FRI...MAINLY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 1 FT OR SO SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...LATEST ETSURGE MDL FORECAST DATA SHOWS A
POSITIVE HALF FOOT ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...JUST BREACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR LOW LYING AREAS ADJOINING
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE WILL BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. SAME
DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHTS EVENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...MJC/III/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT COULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL
MOVING ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
CERTAINLY PROVIDE A MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD
LIKELY STAY NORTH OF HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY
INCREASING AGITATION IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO
SOUND TO UPSTATE SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF
PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE
VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS
PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOCALLY STILL APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR
FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO COUNTY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW HEIGHTENED CONVG INTO THE TROUGH IN
THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC SO THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY HIGH
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE
100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE
REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES BUT THE MLCAPES OVER
WESTERN ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE APPROACHING 5000
J/KG...AND SHOW THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS
FORECAST/POP RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE INITIATION FEELS
OF HEIGHTENED IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL TURN SEVERE ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY DUE THE EXTREME UPDRAFT ACCELERATION EXPECTED.
NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.
EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
BY THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH
OF 40KT 500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE
STORMS DO FIRE THEY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED
`THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE` BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME
VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS HERE IN THE
CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH HOWEVER THESE VALUES
WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY
STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY
`FAT` CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C FAVORING THE GROWTH OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR HAIL IN THE LATEST
SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY
HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO
BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE RESULTING FROM BAND OF
WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY. THE EXTREME HEAT IN
PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST
DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE TORNADO THREAT
NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION A DECENT
POSSIBILITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST TIMING WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES
AWAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH MAY
ALSO REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
THROUGH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. TRIGGERS INCLUDE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM SWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RIGHT NOW BORDERLINE
ON MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE
AS TO IF AND WHEN WE ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA UNDER NORTHEAST
EDGE OF 5H RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
BY A 5H TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA MORE OR LESS IN DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUD. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK TO ENHANCE
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. POP VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES EARLIER. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLING A
LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMEDIATE MVFR
FROM HAZE AT ALL SITES. VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE INTENSE HEAT...AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS PLACE ALL TAF SITES IN A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE CB MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR NOW WILL HAVE
TO AMEND TO +TSRA ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO FORM. ANTICIPATE SO MVFR
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IFR ONLY IN LOCATION IN OR NEAR
DOWNDRAFT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STAGNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE
FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SHOW IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS
AND/OR MARINE WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 15 KT. PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL ENHANCED PIEDMONT TROUGH...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND
SUBTLE EXPANSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASES IN
SPEEDS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST OCCASIONAL 20 KT IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR
THU/FRI...MAINLY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 1 FT OR SO SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...LATEST ETSURGE MDL FORECAST DATA SHOWS A
POSITIVE HALF FOOT ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...JUST BREACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR LOW LYING AREAS ADJOINING
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE WILL BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. SAME
DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHTS EVENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>109.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...MJC/III/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT...COULD TRIGGER A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST. EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL MOVING
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY
PROVIDE A MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGITATION IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO SOUND TO
UPSTATE SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID
CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOCALLY
STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION THE THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO COUNTY AND
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW HEIGHTENED CONVG
INTO THE TROUGH IN THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC
SO THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY
HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE
100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE
REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES BUT THE MLCAPES OVER WESTERN
ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE APPROACHING 5000 J/KG...AND SHOW
THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS FORECAST/POP
RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE INITIATION FEELS OF HEIGHTENED
IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL TURN SEVERE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DUE
THE EXTREME UPDRAFT ACCELERATION EXPECTED.
NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.
EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS BY
THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT
FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP
IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 40KT
500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED BY OUTFLOW FROM
SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE STORMS DO FIRE THEY
WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED `THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE`
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH
AS IT GETS HERE IN THE CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH
HOWEVER THESE VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG
RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A
LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY `FAT` CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C
FAVORING THE GROWTH OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR
HAIL IN THE LATEST SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM
TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH
CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
RESULTING FROM BAND OF WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY.
THE EXTREME HEAT IN PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE
INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE
TORNADO THREAT NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
TODAY...AND BACK TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BASICALLY PLACES THE
ILM FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BATTLEFIELD FOR CONVECTION. UPSTREAM
WEAK IMPULSES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS/MCC FOR
EACH OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS
INTO SCATTERED CRITERIA. THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS THE CAP
ALOFT WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES...AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO BACK TRACK TO THE NE GULF COAST DUE TO ITS
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO OPEN UP CONVECTION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ELONGATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO NAM MET
MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS SUPERIORITY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM...WILL MESH IN WITH THE MAIN UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE ILM FORECAST AREA WILL SUCCUMB TO THE UPPER
TROUGHINESS. THE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...THE SEA BREEZE...AND ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...WILL ALL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INITIATE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...POPS IN THE
20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE ADVERTISED EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL OBSERVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THE PREVIOUS DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMEDIATE MVFR
FROM HAZE AT ALL SITES. VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE INTENSE HEAT...AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS PLACE ALL TAF SITES IN A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE CB MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR NOW WILL HAVE
TO AMEND TO +TSRA ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO FORM. ANTICIPATE SO MVFR
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IFR ONLY IN LOCATION IN OR NEAR
DOWNDRAFT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STAGNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE
FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SHOW IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR
MARINE WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE
U.S. MAINLAND IN THE VICINITY OF FL AND GA THRU OUT THE SHORT TERM.
THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD SW WIND DIRECTIONS...AND
A MODESTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.
THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 3 FT SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE
THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE OTHER PLAYER WILL BE A 1 TO 2 FT SE 9-10
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVE WILL
DOMINATE SEAS AS SEEN WITH AVAILABLE SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS.
OVERALL...EXPECT 2 TO 4 FOOT SIG SEAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO ONLY SMALL CHANGES WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN.
THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN SOME TOWARD THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT WITH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT RANGE. SIG SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 5 FT AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AGAIN...SHORT PERIOD AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD...WILL DOMINATE THE SIG
SEAS. THE UNDERLYING SE SWELL WILL REMAIN IN THAT 1-2 FT RANGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>109.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...HAWKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THEN NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE I-75 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO
INCREASE THE POP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW WILL CLIP THE AREA. IT IS HOT ENOUGH
THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
BRIEFLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT
AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.
SECOND...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED GIVEN HOW THIS MAY INTERACT WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TS COMPLEX. THINKING THAT IF THERE IS ANY DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF
THIS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS COMPARED WITH THE COMPLEX OFF
TO THE WEST. THE HRRR IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOLUTION
BRINGING ANY SHRA/TS WELL EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE SREF
MAINLY KEEPS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. ONE OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ITEMS TO NOTE WAS THAT DPTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A
BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS HAVE FORECAST WHICH INDICATES THERE MAY BE
A BIT MORE SFC INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
FINALLY...WELL UPSTREAM THERE IS RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER MN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEATHER
EVOLVING BY THE HOUR THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
WENT MAINLY A BIT MILDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LAST
NIGHTS LOWS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN BEGIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE TOUGH TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR WEATHER WILL BE MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. OVERALL KEPT POPS GENERALLY LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. DURING THIS TIME ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM
WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF TRACKING MORE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS GIVEN GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA. CARRY AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED NIGHT. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE
AIRMASS CHANGE THOUGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN AND DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE 60S. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT ON
THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
CHALLENGE IS THE WEEKEND. THE GFS TAKES A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND MEANING TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE THAT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A GENERIC SMALL POP ON
SUNDAY. HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MI SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT ACROSS LERI. CONVECTION FIRING OVER IN SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE SW OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE KFDY AND KMFD A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FURTHER OUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN
THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY ONSHORE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES THE FLOW
WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SPEEDS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ABE/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THEN NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT
AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.
SECOND...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED GIVEN HOW THIS MAY INTERACT WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TS COMPLEX. THINKING THAT IF THERE IS ANY DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF
THIS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS COMPARED WITH THE COMPLEX OFF
TO THE WEST. THE HRRR IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOLUTION
BRINGING ANY SHRA/TS WELL EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE SREF
MAINLY KEEPS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. ONE OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ITEMS TO NOTE WAS THAT DPTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A
BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS HAVE FORECAST WHICH INDICATES THERE MAY BE
A BIT MORE SFC INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
FINALLY...WELL UPSTREAM THERE IS RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER MN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEATHER
EVOLVING BY THE HOUR THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
WENT MAINLY A BIT MILDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LAST
NIGHTS LOWS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN BEGIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE TOUGH TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR WEATHER WILL BE MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. OVERALL KEPT POPS GENERALLY LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. DURING THIS TIME ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM
WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF TRACKING MORE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS GIVEN GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA. CARRY AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED NIGHT. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE
AIRMASS CHANGE THOUGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN AND DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE 60S. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT ON
THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON FRIDAY. THE BIG
CHALLENGE IS THE WEEKEND. THE GFS TAKES A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND MEANING TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE THAT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A GENERIC SMALL POP ON
SUNDAY. HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MI SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT ACROSS LERI. CONVECTION FIRING OVER IN SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE SW OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE KFDY AND KMFD A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FURTHER OUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN
THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY ONSHORE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES THE FLOW
WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SPEEDS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL AT 1630Z
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND SREF PROJECTIONS
INDICATING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE MENTION
OF LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO WATCHING AREA OF SHRA OVER SRN MI WHICH IF CONTINUING WOULD
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NRN OH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ADDED THE SLGT
CHC POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT MAINLY NOT UNTIL AFT 22-23Z. THINKING
THAT THUNDER WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY WITH SHRA TO THE
NORTH...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
EXPECT FOR TODAY THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE TODAY WITH
CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHILE
AFTERNOON CAPES IN NRN OHIO WILL TOP OUT AT 1000J/KG. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ORIGINAL...NAM12 SHOWS A LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. SREF BEINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THIS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW AS WARM FRONT/TRIGGER WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NAM12 SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL TURN WARM AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS
THE FRONTS IN THE AREA WILL CHANCE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
TRIM POPS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING CHANCE POPS ONLY FAR SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND HEAT DOMINATE THE REGION. A SEMI BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MI SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT ACROSS LERI. CONVECTION FIRING OVER IN SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE SW OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE KFDY AND KMFD A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FURTHER OUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL QUIET ON THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
KICK UP SOME WINDS. SO WILL KEEP WAVES AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT ON THE
LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1253 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL AT 1630Z
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND SREF PROJECTIONS
INDICATING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE MENTION
OF LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO WATCHING AREA OF SHRA OVER SRN MI WHICH IF CONTINUING WOULD
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NRN OH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ADDED THE SLGT
CHC POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT MAINLY NOT UNTIL AFT 22-23Z. THINKING
THAT THUNDER WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY WITH SHRA TO THE
NORTH...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
EXPECT FOR TODAY THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE TODAY WITH
CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHILE
AFTERNOON CAPES IN NRN OHIO WILL TOP OUT AT 1000J/KG. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ORIGINAL...NAM12 SHOWS A LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. SREF BEINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THIS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW AS WARM FRONT/TRIGGER WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NAM12 SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL TURN WARM AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS
THE FRONTS IN THE AREA WILL CHANCE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
TRIM POPS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING CHANCE POPS ONLY FAR SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND HEAT DOMINATE THE REGION. A SEMI BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE BIT OF MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND EXPECTING VFR ALL AREAS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND TRY TO
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT
MANSFIELD AND AKRON CANTON.
.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL QUIET ON THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
KICK UP SOME WINDS. SO WILL KEEP WAVES AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT ON THE
LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
UPDATE...
ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING EXACTLY WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THUS
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO GO
WITH 102 DEGREES AT JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND JACKSON. WILL BUMP
TUPELO UP TO 104 DEGREES. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO
WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS BUT LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRING IS SMALL.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND THE CONTINUED
HEAT WAVE FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR...WARM...AND MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TODAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMPLEX THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED STORMS FIRED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY YESTERDAY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN AL.
THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR TODAY BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS ECTRL AR/FAR SRN TN/NRN MS. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED TS MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 100 DEGREES...GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. STILL
LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOWN
UNANIMOUSLY ON MOS GUIDANCE...SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION.
A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
OVER GEORGIA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
SO KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...WHAT EVER IS LEFT WILL
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE.
THUS...INTRODUCED ONLY SLGT MENTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH MOS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER AROUND THE
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...MOSTLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...BECOMING LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
WITH TIME. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY AN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DAILY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH MS...BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. SW-W WINDS 7-10 KTS TODAY...5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 102 79 98 77 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 102 73 98 70 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 102 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 104 76 99 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE VERSUS
YESTERDAY WITH A PWAT OF 1.68 INCHES. THEREFORE...DESPITE
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100S WILL
ALLOW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AROUND ALL THREE AIRPORTS. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA
AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM OUR CWA IN A
SEMICIRCULAR ARC FROM NORTH TO EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MID
STATE...IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CSV LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AT ALL THREE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STARTING TO TRICKLE IN, WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY THAN
BEFORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE FRI.
HIGH TEMP TRENDS FOLLOW THIS TREND...BNA FRI 109F...BNA SAT 107F AND
BNA TODAY EXPECTED 104. CURRENTLY THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
GA/SC BORDER ATTM. MODELS DRIFT IT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS. AS NOTED ABOVE TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW THIS TEND AND DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MON AND MID 90S BEYOND THAT. OF COURSE THAT
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE HOLDING ON TO HEAT ADVISORY PAST ITS EXPIRATION
TIME OF 7 PM THIS EVENING...BUT DAYSHIFT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
WHEN 12Z MODEL DATA ARRIVES.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS NOTED FORMING OVER THE MIDWEST AND DROPPING
SEWD AS UPPER FLOW TURNS TO LIGHT NWLY BY LATE MON AFTN. GFS
DEEPENS THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY ON TUE. ECM ONLY HINTS AT THIS
FEATURE. THUS I HAVE A 20 POP FOR THE PLATEAU ON MON AND A 20 POP
IN ALL AREAS FOR TUE AND BEYOND.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...MODELS KEEP A STRONG RIDGE GENERALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVER THE MIDSTATE. THIS
PATTERN BRINGS A WEAK SFC FRONT (BACK DOOR) SWD FROM THE OH
VALLEY LATE THU (ON THE GFS ANYWAY). WEAK DISSIPATING FRONT SORT
OF LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOTICED THAT THE 8-14 DAY PROG FROM CPC INDICATES THAT WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY GET BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT...ASSUMING YOUR CROPS DON`T DIE
FIRST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-022>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IF
ANY CONVECTION COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....RIDGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A
NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
FARGO ND TO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN LAST EVENING.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...WITH NOW JUST A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ATMOSPHERE AT MPX AND GRB STILL FAIRLY DRY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS...THOUGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH. HEAD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...THE
WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF 70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE ANYWHERE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.6 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATTENTION REMAINS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO
IT. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING OUT.
THIS RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...ALLOWING THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SPEED THAT THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON...LIFTING TO
NEAR DES MOINES BY 00Z AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER MUCH
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. 01.00Z NAM/ECMWF/NSSL WRF AND HIRESW-ARW
MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. KEPT SOME 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...0-6KM
AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT BEST IS 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...THINKING MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE. SUPPOSE THERE MIGHT BE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM...BUT WITH THE SHEAR OVERALL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR SEVERE. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT YIELDS CONCERN FOR
MORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL...THE 01.00Z GFS...NAM...UKMET AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW REALLY
ANY FOCUSED AREAS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. NOR DOES
THERE SEEM TO BE ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. THERE IS SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-800MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME SPLIT ON MODELS TO PRODUCE
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE 01.00Z ECMWF...HIRESW-ARW AND NSSL WRF
DO NOT DEVELOP...WHEREAS THE 01.00Z NAM...GFS AND REGIONAL
CANADIAN DO. FEEL THE SCENARIO IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES...6000-7000 FT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE GENERALLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS. USING THESE
BASES...LOOKING AT A 1-3KM OR 1-6KM SHEAR...THE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KT PER THE NAM. AS SUCH...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE STORMS. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING
FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO DAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY (AROUND 20C)...SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR HIGHS. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...THOUGH...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN IOWA BEGIN ADVECTING NORTH. STILL...THE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WARMER NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH MAY BEGIN
TO FLATTEN OUT AS THE PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING INSTABILITY ON MONDAY ON THE FRONT AND
THE AIRMASS STILL NOT CAPPED MAY ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
IT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY AND NEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES
ALL DAY. NOTE THAT THERE ARE STILL DRY MODELS OUT THERE...SUCH AS
THE 01.00Z HIRESW-ARW. THE CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY EVERYWHERE...
WITH ANY CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE UP TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONVECTION MAKES HIGHS A LITTLE TRICKY ON MONDAY. WARMER 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 22C WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY...BUT
AGAIN CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THIS. FOR NOW STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE INDICES SHOULD BE AROUND 100. WITH
THE WARM FRONT BLOWING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING LOWS IN THE
70S MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP HOW MODELS
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MANY
DAYS. THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM REMAIN ADAMANT THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR...CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONLY
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP AT MOST DOWN TO WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NOT SURE IF THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MATTER
MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTH. COMBINE THE FACT THAT CAPPING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...NOTED BY 12C 700MB TEMPS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE. ONLY KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...HEAT IS THE BIG DEAL WITH MORE SUN LIKELY AND 850MB
TEMPS PERHAPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 24C. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME
IN-LINE WITH MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...4TH OF JULY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
BIG STORY REMAINS THE HEAT.
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALL MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. BY 00Z FRIDAY...
500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 1.5-2 ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS COMES A HEAT SURGE WITH
IT...SUCH THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS OF SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAISED HIGHS THESE DAYS TO COME CLOSER IN-LINE WITH THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE AND A 30-DAY CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE 4TH OF
JULY IS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE INCREASING RIDGING...INTERACTING
WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME LATER FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
HOW MUCH CONVECTION MIGHT BE ON THE FRONT. IN FACT...MAY END UP
BEING ALL POST-FRONTAL IF AT ALL GIVEN CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOO TO WORK
OUT...WITH THE 01.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGESTING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN.
HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ON DEWPOINTS AS SOME OF THE
FORECASTED HEAT INDICES GET CLOSE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. IF DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...WHICH GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT-TYPE SITUATION WOULD NOT THINK WOULD HAPPEN...HEAT
INDICES WILL CROSS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO IL. MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT...EXTENDING BASICALLY ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING
MONDAY. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT FORCING EXPECTED
TO KICK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE HIGHER-BASED WITH CEILINGS AOA 5KFT. BASED ON INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SIGNAL...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS IN THE KRST TAF
SITE AFTER 22Z AND AT KLSE AFTER 01Z. BULK OF SCATTERED SHRA/TS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL IN
THE 5-6SM RANGE TOWARD MORNING WITH MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. NOT
CONFIDENT AS TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST OF THE KLSE TAF SITE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...CLEARED VCTS AT KLSE
AFTER 09Z WITH ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER THAN LIGHT
FOG...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAT FOR THIS WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEW POINTS CLOSELY AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS. IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAT MAY CAUSE
DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT MORE DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT SITUATION IN PLACE. ALSO...THE DROUGHT COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IF THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION...WHICH THEN WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MORE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN SOME BUT
HEAT INDICES COULD BE HIGHER.
LA CROSSE RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE ALL IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE SAFE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE NEAR
THESE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OCCURS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ROCHESTER IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE RECORD
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 100-105. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE 4TH
WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 98. THAT STILL SEEMS SAFE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE......AJ