Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/28/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
629 PM PDT WED JUN 27 2012
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE CHALLENGE SHORT TERM WILL BE WHEN
DOES THE MARINE LAYER RE-DEVELOP.
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA. AS NOTED THIS
MORNING...THE AIRMASS ALOFT WARMED CONSIDERABLE OVER THE PAST DAY
OR SO. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE
REGION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE 24 HOUR CHANGE INDICATES A
WARMING OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IN
OTHER WORDS..MORE 80S HAVE BEEN RECORDED INLAND WITH A FEW LOW 90S
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...NOT MUCH CHANGE REGARDING THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. OFF THE WESTERN US...A
GENERAL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS WITH PASSING
EMBEDDED LOWS/SHORTWAVES.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE
MARINE LAYER/STRATUS REDEVELOPS. THE LATEST MESOCALE MODELS ARE
NOT SHEDDING MUCH LIGHT ON THE SITUATION AS THEY ARE SPLIT ONCE
AGAIN. THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR DO A SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BL RH
BY 12Z TOMORROW BUT STILL VERY PATCHY AT BEST. THAT BEING
SAID...TRIED TO MIRROR THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
FROM THE SAN MATEO COAST SOUTHWARD PAST BIG SUR. ANY CLOUDS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN TEMPS AT 850 MB
ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL WARM AGAIN
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. COAST REMAINS 60S AND
70S...INLAND 80S AND 90S.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AN EMBEDDED H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OVERHEAD PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RETURNING STRATUS. TO START OFF THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE FAN FARE SATURDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP ALL PRECIP NORTH OF THE CWA. CURRENT
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A DRY SCENARIO FOR THE CWA.
LONG TERM(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM CAN BE DESCRIBED AS DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE LATEST CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK KEEPS MUCH
OF THE CA COAST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIP(OR
DRY).
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOWER HUMIDITIES HAVE
HELPED KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE EVENING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS TIL 04Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PATH OF DEBBY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRE-DAWN...DEBBY CREEPING EAST IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STRUNG OUT TO THE NE ACROSS ALL OF NE
FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE
PWAT ON THE SPECIAL 06Z KCHS SOUNDING LAST NIGHT WAS 2.2 INCHES
WHILE THE RUC HAS HIGH VALUES TO THE S OF SAVANNAH. NOCTURNAL
CONVERGENCE CAUSED TSTMS WITH TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAINS TO ERUPT
RIGHT AT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE BEACHES FROM EDISTO TO FOLLY AND JUST
INLAND TO JAMES ISLAND PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OVERNIGHT
WHICH HAS SINCE BEEN CANCELLED AS RAINS QUICKLY DIMINISHED BY
08Z. THICK AND STEADY TROPICAL RAINS PERSIST ALONG COASTAL
MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA WITH SPORADIC AREAS OF COASTAL RAINS TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO THE PEE DEE REGION OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG IT HAD GREATLY
DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SATELLIT IMAGERY SHOWS THE VAST
COMPLEXITY OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION WITH A LOAD OF VERY
DRY AIR BANKED TO THE W OVER N GEORGIA AND FAR UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA.
TODAY...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
DISPLACED SOUTH INTO THE PATH OF TS DEBBY BY THE ADVANCING DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS SE GEORGIA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BULK OF THE FLOODING RAINS REMAINING
JUST S OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH
MCINTOSH COUNTY REAL CLOSE TODAY AS THE GFS NOSES UP 2.6 PWATS
INTO THAT AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS CONTINUE TO
BE ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND AREAS TO THE S OF SAVANNAH.
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT TODAY IS EXTREMELY SHARP AND WHILE FAR INLAND
AREAS REMAIN DRY...SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE DEEP MOIST AXIS
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME DOWNPOURS...AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
AS THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH TODAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT NE AND
LIKELY BECOME A BREEZY AT TIMES...EVEN INLAND AREAS N OF I-16
AND ALL OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA AS 25-30 KT GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
TIGHTENING MOISTURE GRADIENTS COME INTO PLAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 80S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE CLOUDS
TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT CLOSER TO DEBBY AND
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS NORTHERN ZONES BORDERING THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE...
EVENTUAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS TO NEAR 70 AROUND
DARIEN GEORGIA.
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEBBY MAKING A VERY SLOW TRACK EAST OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WHILE IT ENCOUNTERS THE STATIONARY FRONT...BEFORE ENTERING
THE GULF STREAM AND MAKING A SHIFT NORTHEAST. AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER OUR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PWATS
NEAR 1.0...BEFORE DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DRY AIR QUICKLY RUSHES OVER THE AREA.
WE COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HAVING A DRY FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN EXPANDING MID LVL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY EACH AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 90S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS APPEAR WARM AND DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN LARGE
MID LVL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID OVER THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL
RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEWPTS INCREASE TO
THE MID 70S. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THESE TEMPS ALONG WITH MID 70 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW TO MID
90S...AS A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE ON THE 06Z CYCLE. CHANCES OF RAIN AT TIMES
THROUGH MIDDAY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW
A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL JET HAS WINDS IN SOLID SCA RANGE FROM GRAYS
REEF TO BUOY 41004 BUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE DIMINISHING WINDS
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS ARE CHAOTIC BUT ELEVATED 4-6 FT IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 9 FT AT BUOY 41004.
STRONG NE SURGING WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...
ESPECIALLY N OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE SURGE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
REACH GRAYS REEF LATER TODAY BUT SPEEDS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE
NEAR SHORE LEGS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES NOW ALL WATERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND THIS
INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY. SEAS OF THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE ALL NIGHT AND ADVISORIES PERSISTS THERE.
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...2-3 FOOT SWELLS AND TIDES RUNNING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS FOR 6 FEET SEAS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL
WINDS/SEAS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED FOR LATE
WEEK WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BEFORE HEADING FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE GULF STREAM. A FAIR
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
WEEKEND...BETWEEN 1-3 FEET FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-4 FOR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN NORTH GA BETWEEN RYY AND GVL AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM EDT. THE COLD FRONT WITH
DRIER AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO EXTREME NORTH GA AND SHOULD MOVE TO
SOUTH OF ATL BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF A CSG-MCN-AGS LINE AS THE RAIN SHIELD FROM T.S. DEBBY ROTATES OVER
NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS RATIONALE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
16
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
.ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM
DEBBY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTER PORTION OF MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER OF DEBBY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CSG TO VDI. THIS HAS
RESULTED ON BEST PRESSURE AND WIND GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TO THE NORTH...STILL SEEING
STRONGER NORTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH
AND HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS
PRECIP...AREA OF MOISTURE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTER BANDS
FROM DEBBY HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BUT SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A
LACK OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY.
LATEST RAP MIXED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE EVEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. BETTER VALUES TO THE NORTH BUT DRY
AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. STILL
HAVE CAPES OF 2500 J/KG SO NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON AREA YET AND
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTH.
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIRECTION WITH
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THE MOST
LIKELY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE WITH
THE GFS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. EFFECTS
LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION ON THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE STORM. COULD SEE SOME OUTER BANDS ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MID WEEK.
DEESE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE NHC STILL KEEPING DEBBY IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF THE STORM DECIDES TO TAKE A FASTER
TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ON
SHORE THURSDAY AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ON THE EASTERN
SIDE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND END POPS
RELATED TO DEBBY BY THURSDAY.
BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WOULD PROVIDE
HOT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH
DEBBY AND DOESNT START BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 90S BUT IF DEBBY
MOVES OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WX CONCERNS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TS DEBBY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MAJOR AIRPORTS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS ALREADY EAST OF I-85
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDAY
CUMULUS DEVELOP AROUND 5000-6000FT BUT NOT MUCH AS DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR PUSHES SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NE AND
INCREASE TO 7-12KTS BY SUNRISE. GUSTS TO 18-23KTS ARE LIKELY TODAY
WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERTICAL MIXING IN PLACE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 89 60 92 64 / 10 10 10 10
ATLANTA 88 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 56 86 59 / 10 0 10 5
CARTERSVILLE 90 58 91 63 / 10 5 10 5
COLUMBUS 93 69 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 87 62 88 66 / 10 5 10 5
MACON 93 64 92 67 / 20 10 20 10
ROME 92 58 92 63 / 10 5 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 90 59 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
VIDALIA 89 70 90 70 / 50 30 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HWO PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF PER OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...SURFACE WINDS
BELOW 12 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 270000Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO
PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...SURFACE WINDS
BELOW 12 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 270000Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO
PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WILL VEER THE WINDS ABOUT 30 DEGREES ON THE UPDATE BASED ON SURFACE
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER SUNRISE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM AND CLIMATE SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO
PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER SUNRISE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ITS MEAN AXIS JUST WEST OF YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SOME...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S...MAINLY OVER YUMA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S...WITH DAILY RECORDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QPF LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED...WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. I
INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OPENING UP
THE DOOR FOR LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGHS CRESTING OVER THE RIDGE TO
MOVE NEAR THE REGION. AS SUCH THERE ARE SEVERAL LOW CHANCE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION AND WHAT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING BEYOND THE
PERIOD THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 10KT AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. WITH RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY FUELS EVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE
ENOUGH FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IN THESE CONDITIONS. I PLAN ON
KEEPING RFW IN PLACE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RH/WIND CROSSOVER FOR RFW WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IF TD FAIL TO RECOVER AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED THEN RFW WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO RH/WIND...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
THURSDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1970
HILL CITY....110 IN 1933
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1963
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1963
YUMA.........102
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...AP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
128 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ITS MEAN AXIS JUST WEST OF YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SOME...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S...MAINLY OVER YUMA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S...WITH DAILY RECORDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QPF LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED...WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. I
INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
ELONGATED HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL SOMEWHAT
BISECT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN RIDGE
AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE ROCKIE MOUNTAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INCREASING
CHANCES TO PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
WITH INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RESIDING NORTH OF
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 17C
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 10KT AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. WITH RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY FUELS EVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE
ENOUGH FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IN THESE CONDITIONS. I PLAN ON
KEEPING RFW IN PLACE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RH/WIND CROSSOVER FOR RFW WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IF TD FAIL TO RECOVER AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED THEN RFW WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO RH/WIND...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1128 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS UPDATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN ON THE HEAT.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. FLAT RIDGE
FRIDAY BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE.
850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE
100-115 DEGREE RANGE (COOLEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND HOTTEST
IN THE HILL CITY AREA). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SOUTHERLY WIND (NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WARMING) MAY
NEGATE FULL 850MB MIXING THUS WENT AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE HILL CITY
AREA...MID 90S TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
DID MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA.
700MB TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY BE TOO HOT FOR ANYTHING TO POP OR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AT
KMCK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRATUS DEVELOPED
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT SO FAR HAS SHOWN NO
SIGNS OF MOVING TOWARDS KMCK. HOWEVER...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
DROPPING AND FOG WILL LIKELY START TO FORM IN A FEW HOURS. HAVE
LOWERED VISIBILITY TO 1SM BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WITH A SIMILAR SITUATION. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND SUBSIDENCE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND AT KMCK AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY. AT LEAST TWO
FIRE PLUMES WERE IDENTIFIABLE ON KGLD RADAR EARLIER TODAY...ONE IN
THOMAS COUNTY AND ANOTHER IN DUNDY COUNTY...NOT TO MENTION THE
FIRE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST CHANCE COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO
OBVIOUSLY FUELS ARE THERE AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE MET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...024
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1040 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...DECIDED ON PATCH FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND BROUGHT PRECIP CHCS UP TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
THEN TRENDED THINGS IN LINE W/THE HRR AND RUC SHOWING WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS PULLING BACK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT.
SEE MARINE SECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHG EXPECTED THRU THE EVE HRS... LOW WILL
CONT TO SPIN OVR W CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
OPEN UP AND DRIFT NEWRD INTO NRN NB BY THU AM. BEST QPF WILL CONT
ACROSS FAR ERN AND NERN AREAS INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT NWRD OUT OF ALL BUT EXTREME FAR NERN AREAS BY LATE
TNGT/ERLY THU. WILL CONT TO MENTION SOME OCNLY HEAVY RAIN PSBL
THRU THE EVE HRS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT JUST A WDSPRD SHOWERY REGIME TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THU W/ POPS RANGING FROM CHC ACROSS THE W AND
SW TO LIKELY E ERLY IN THE DAY TAPERING DOWN TO SLGT CHC W AND SW
AND CHC E BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THIS STUBBORN LOW GRADUALLY
RELEASES ITS GRIP ON THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT FINALLY
PUTTING AN END TO OUR WET WEATHER PATTERN...ALBEIT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MU CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE
IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND 0 - 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT. WILL NOT MENTION
ENHANCED WORDING YET BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND
THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S
DOWNEAST...EXCEPT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL EVEN BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80
ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED TNGT W/ CONDS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES THU AM.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING DURING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE CHANCE FOR MVFR OR
EVEN BRIEF IFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR SOME SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY MAINLY NORTHERN
TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS SEAS ARE DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WAY OVERNIGHT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED
UP ON THE SURGE OF HIGHER SEAS WHICH LOOKED BE A SWELL W/8-9
SECOND PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE...MOIDIFIED MATM1 W/THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NERFC
SHOWING THE RIVER TO HIT 14+ FT. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY UP
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE MIDNIGHT: SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH AND OVER DOWNEAST AREAS. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN
IS APPROACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WILL LIKELY LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS
HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN
MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY
RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM
WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND
SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER
COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW
COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING
AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM IN A LONG
TRAJECTORY FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN EAST AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGING ON HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
KATAHDIN REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL. THE WARM OCCLUSION AND ASSOCIATED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER MAINE BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL...AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM RECENT STORMS
COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
EXISTING FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS E XPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN EMERGES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
LIFT HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ZONES
FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE LOW 80S.. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AVOIDING INSTABILITY
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: IFR WILL THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR ALL TERMINALS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND BHB TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...IF NOT VFR...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE TEMPO IFR. IFR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES
COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW.
SHORT TERM: SCA MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WAVE HTS WILL STAY NEAR 4 FT IN A SE SWELL MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE 2210L: FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS DROPPED RADAR ESTIMATES OF .5
TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL AREAS OF OUR FA INCLUDING
BROWNVILLE. THIS AREA HAS WORKED MOSTLY N AND E OF THIS AREA SO
THERE WILL BE A BIT A BREAK UNTIL LATE TNGT WHEN EXPECT PRECIP TO
REDEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE EVE.
FLOOD WRNG FOR THIS AREA IN EFFECT UNTIL MID TUE AFTN...
COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW
RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY
DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO
THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN
GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-
015-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SITS BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES, MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW, WITH A COOL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A 1018MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A LOW OVER MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE 750MB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECREASE TO 5 TO
10 MPH BY AROUND SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES
ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT IN A DRY SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. 850 TEMPS
WILL INCREASE TO 13-15C ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE THERMAL STRUCTURE
ALOFT ON THURSDAY. NAM/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM, INDICATING 850
TEMPS WARMING TO 23-25C BY 00Z FRIDAY. FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
COOLER GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS, WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH MODELS DIFFERING IN THE TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CROWN OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES CONVECTION WITH A SHORT WAVE
REACHING THE AREA BY AS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE BEGUN SCHC
POPS THAT NIGHT. POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE ON THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING FUELING CONVECTION IN A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS AGAIN QUITE A SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON FRIDAY. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WITH CONVECTION, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE
MID 80S NORTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. HIGHS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE NAM, WHICH IS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NEAR
RECORD TEMPS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND THE COOLER GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A TROUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WERE FORECAST 3 TO 5 DEGREES UNDER HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT CLOSER TO GFS MOS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHILE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TIMING OF AREAS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRIER
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS MIXING FROM DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ARE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO THE THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
348 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NOTE: INITIAL FINDINGS FROM OFFICE`S SURVEY TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC
AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64) (CHECKING OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM
MON AFTN).
1. CONFIRMED EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE IN GOOCHLAND COUNTY...GENERALLY
NEAR COUNTY LINE RD TO HICKORY HILL RD.
2. LARGE SCALE DERECHO FROM AROUND OILVILLE IN GOOCHLAND COUNTY TO
ROCKVILLE IN WESTERN HANOVER COUNTY. IN THAT AREA...WIDESPREAD
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DAMAGED/UPROOTED; 3-4
FOOT DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED HALF WAY UP. WIND SPEEDS EST 80 TO
100 MPH.
THE TEAM IS NOW HEADED TO WESTERN HENRICO COUNTY. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE FORTHCOMING. A DETAILED PNS (PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT)
WILL BE ISSUED UPON THEIR RETURN THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NOTE: INITIAL FINDINGS FROM OFFICE`S SURVEY TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC
AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64) (CHECKING OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM
MON AFTN).
1. CONFIRMED EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE IN EASTERN GOOCHLAND
COUNTY...GENERALLY NEAR COUNTY LINE RD TO HICKORY HILL RD.
2. LARGE SCALE DERECHO FROM AROUND OILVILLE IN GOOCHLAND COUNTY TO
ROCKVILLE IN WESTERN HANOVER COUNTY. IN THAT AREA...WIDESPREAD
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DAMAGED/UPROOTED; 3-4
FOOT DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED HALF WAY UP. WIND SPEEDS EST 80 TO
100 MPH.
THE TEAM IS NOW HEADED TO WESTERN HENRICO COUNTY. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE FORTHCOMING. A DETAILED PNS (PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT)
WILL BE ISSUED UPON THEIR RETURN THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
NOTE: TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64)
TO CHECK OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM MON AFTN. AS OF MID THIS AFTN...NO
WORD ON THEIR FINDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
NOTE: TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64)
TO CHECK OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM TUE AFTN. AS OF MID THIS AFTN...NO
WORD ON THEIR FINDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBS.
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SITS BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES, MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW, WITH A COOL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A 1018MB HIGH IS
CENTERED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A LOW OVER MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE 750MB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE
A MAV/MET BLEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UL LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG MIDWEST RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE AREA, MEANING OUR UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NW. THE FLOW, AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
UL WAVES TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE WED AND
THU. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISO AFT ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LACKING, SO WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION ON THU. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU, AS THESE UL WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, FOR THE REASONS THAT STRONGER
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH FILLS WITH THE APPROACHING WEEKEND.
THOSE MODELS DO MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES IN HEIGHT MAGNITUDE/TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THOUGH. EITHER WAY...READINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGHS WERE FORECAST ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES UNDER HPC GUIDANCE...BUT STILL ABOVE GFS NUMBERS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. SLIGHT...TO CHANCE
POPS WERE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY...AND DIMINISHED THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1111 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TO MAKE SLIGHT
TWEAKS ON TEMP AND DEW POINT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SITS BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES, MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW, WITH A COOL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A 1018MB HIGH IS
CENTERED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXTENDING IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH A DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR ABOVE 750MB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH TO GUST TO
25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY SUNSET. TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UL LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG MIDWEST RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE AREA, MEANING OUR UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NW. THE FLOW, AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
UL WAVES TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE WED AND
THU. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISO AFT ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LACKING, SO WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION ON THU. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU, AS THESE UL WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, FOR THE REASONS THAT STRONGER
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH FILLS WITH THE APPROACHING WEEKEND.
THOSE MODELS DO MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES IN HEIGHT MAGNITUDE/TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THOUGH. EITHER WAY...READINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGHS WERE FORECAST ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES UNDER HPC GUIDANCE...BUT STILL ABOVE GFS NUMBERS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. SLIGHT...TO CHANCE
POPS WERE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY...AND DIMINISHED THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC WIND WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
IMPROVES WITH THE HEATING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING LAYER,
EXPECT GUSTS TO BE NEAR MONDAY`S SPEED, 18 TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1053 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRZY/COMFY WX HAS REPLACED THE WRM/HOT WX OF RECENT DAYS. RMNG
(GENLY) SKC THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...W/ DEWPTS RMNG LO. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO ARND 80F...W/ NNW WNDS 10-20 MPH...GUSTS TO
25 TO 35 MPH (HIGHEST ERN PORTIONS).
NOTE: TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64)
TO CHECK OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM TUE AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND PERHAPS LOW
50S OVER THE SW COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JUNE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND...BUT ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S UNDER A SUNNY
SKY WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
THE SKY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 60-65. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 60S DURING PEAK HEATING...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633-635>638-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE INDICATES A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A 1001MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NANTUCKET. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS AND THEN PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MEANWHILE...TS DEBBIE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
MID-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JUNE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND PERHAPS LOW
50S OVER THE SW COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JUNE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND...BUT ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S UNDER A SUNNY
SKY WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
THE SKY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 60-65. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 60S DURING PEAK HEATING...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633-635>638-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE INDICATES A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A 1001MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NANTUCKET. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS AND THEN PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MEANWHILE...TS DEBBIE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
MID-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JUNE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND PERHAPS LOW
50S OVER THE SW COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JUNE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND...BUT ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S UNDER A SUNNY
SKY WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
THE SKY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 60-65. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 60S DURING PEAK HEATING...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...COLD FRONT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH ECG
BY 08Z. SHOWERS ARE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES DURING LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW (OR LOWERING
AT ECG) DEW POINTS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS
BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633-635>638-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG IN THE PLAINS AND DEEP TROF OVER
QUEBEC/NE CONUS. A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THIS NW
FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ASSOCIATED CLD COVER OVER
ONTARIO INTO ERN LK SUP WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE ERN CWA...
MOST OF THIS CLD IS OF THE MID/HI VARIETY PER DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. OTRW...WITH SFC HI PRES SITUATED OVER NE
WI...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER THE W HALF. MORE CLD/SOME SHRA/TS ARE
IMPACTING THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT DESPITE PRESENCE
OF IMPRESSIVE CAP SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK/ABERDEEN RAOBS THAT IS
ON THE NRN EDGE OF VERY WARM AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY...UPR RDG TO THE W WL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E...WITH SFC HI PRES
SINKING SLOWLY S INTO THE LWR LKS/OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WED. EXPECT
AREA OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN ONTARIO TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE ERN CWA THIS MRNG. MORE HI CLD RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS WL ALSO STREAM OVER THE RDG
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL THE DAY WL TURN OUT MOSUNNY
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS. FCST H85 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 14-15C AND MIXING TO H825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING 80-85 AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE
MAXIMIZED NEAR LK MI IN THE H925 SW FLOW. BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE A WEAKER LK BREEZE WL FORM OFF LK SUP AS WELL AND BRING
SOME LOCAL COOLING TO SHORE COMMUNITIES.
TNGT...WITH STRENGTHENING SW H925 FLOW LIFTING H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C
BY 12Z WED NEAR THE WI BORDER AS WELL AS INCRSG PWAT TOWARD 1 INCH
OVER THE E TO 1.5 INCH OVER THE W...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER NGT. TEMPS
WL BE HIEST OVER THE W HALF IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE
COOLEST TEMPS WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT. DESPITE THE INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE AIRMASS WL SO
WARM THE RH WL BE TOO LO FOR ANY PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BROAD 595 H5 RIDGE THAT PRODUCED ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY IS FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. CORE OF WARMEST AIR /H85 TEMPS AOA
+24C/ REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY
AS WELL. SLIGHT COOLING IS FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES.
ON WEDNESDAY...SEEMS THERE IS STILL A SMALL RISK OF INCREASED MID
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS CWA ON NOSE OF H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS LOOKS LIKE ECMWF DID A FEW NIGHTS AGO
SHOWING GOOD SIGNAL WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR PRECIP. MORE
RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF ALONG WITH CANADIAN KEEP IT DRY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO JUST BUMP SKY UP FOR NOW AND KEEP FCST DRY.
MINIMAL DEEPER MOISTURE PER FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS WOULD LEAD TO
SPRINKLES IF SOMETHING DID WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. IF MID CLOUDS
ARE AROUND...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FCST WOULD POINT TO THEM
EVADING BY EARLY AFTN. H85 TEMPS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED WARMER THE
LAST FEW DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOW APPEARS THAT SOLID +20C H85 TEMPS
ARE AROUND IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING HIGHS WITH
MANY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPR 80S. GIVEN TRENDS WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWER 90S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF SCNTRL CWA WITH
WSW BLYR FLOW FCST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SWATH OF H85
DWPNTS WELL ABOVE +10C PLOWS ACROSS RESULTING IN SFC DWPNTS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA IN THE AFTN.
WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THE
WEEK.
ATTN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA
TO SEE WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT
VERY STOUT MID-LEVEL CAPPING AS H7 TEMPS ARE FCST WELL INTO THE
TEENS. EDGE OF MUCAPE GRADIENT SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN DEFLECT INTO CANADA ON EDGE
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION WILL WORK BACK INTO UPR LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPING OVR THE PLAINS WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD AT
THAT TIME WITH H7 TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY OF +14C TO
+16C. SOME HINTS AT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT MAY TRY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN THE CAPPING MAY
BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICK TO BRING SFC FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY BUT NOW SEEM
TO BE IN FAVOR OF IDEA THAT BRINGS FRONT INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND INTO SCNTRL AND EAST CWA THURSDAY
AFTN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK AND THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN CAPPING. ALSO...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS QUICKLY
SHUNTED MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN AS H85 WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING. IF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP /THINK THIS IS
A PRETTY BIG QUESTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAPPING/ THEN SEVERE STORMS
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVR SOUTH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OVR 40 KTS
AND MUCAPE OVR 2000-3000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FCST...BUT NO MORE AT THIS POINT WITH EXPECTED CAPPING. DEEP MIXING
MAY LOWER DWPNTS/HUMIDITY VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVR WESTERN INTERIOR. KNOCKED DWPTS DOWN FURTHER /LOWER
50S/ BUT DID NOT GO NEAR AS LOW AS MIXED DWPNT TOOL GAVE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DWPNTS/RH VALUES LATE
THURSDAY.
LOOKS QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS ON
KEWEENAW MAY GUST OVR 30 MPH...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MOST COOLING
WILL BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH REALLY HAS NOT FULLY ARRIVED BY THAT TIME
AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL WARM IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. SEE NO REASON WHY
MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT CRACK 80 DEGREES YET AGAIN...WITH MID-UPR
80S POSSIBLE SOUTH CNTRL. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW +21C H85
TEMPS SUPPORTING MAXES AROUND 90 DEGREES OVR MUCH OF CNTRL.
DEFINITELY SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BACKING AWAY FM THE COOLING THEY
WERE SHOWING EARLIER FOR FRIDAY. DOES LOOK A BIT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHTS FALL SOME WITH UPR LOW SETTLING
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY STILL PUSH PAST 80 DEGREES OVR CWA AWAY FM FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER SHORTWAVE/ELEVATED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CONSENSUS GAVE LOWER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY RAN WITH THAT
IDEA AS DIFFERENT RUNS OF DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT THEM TO PUSH THROUGH CMX AROUND 20Z
AND SAW AROUND 21Z. THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR IWD SHOULD REMAIN PINNED TO
THE SHORELINE WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS. WEAK LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT
IWD TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI...WHEN STRONGER
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MIGHT IMPACT MAINLY THE NCENTRAL LAKE. A MOISTER AIRMASS THAT
ARRIVES AHEAD OF THIS TROF MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME PATCHY FOG ON WED
NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG IN THE PLAINS AND DEEP TROF OVER
QUEBEC/NE CONUS. A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THIS NW
FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ASSOCIATED CLD COVER OVER
ONTARIO INTO ERN LK SUP WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE ERN CWA...
MOST OF THIS CLD IS OF THE MID/HI VARIETY PER DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. OTRW...WITH SFC HI PRES SITUATED OVER NE
WI...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER THE W HALF. MORE CLD/SOME SHRA/TS ARE
IMPACTING THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT DESPITE PRESENCE
OF IMPRESSIVE CAP SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK/ABERDEEN RAOBS THAT IS
ON THE NRN EDGE OF VERY WARM AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY...UPR RDG TO THE W WL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E...WITH SFC HI PRES
SINKING SLOWLY S INTO THE LWR LKS/OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WED. EXPECT
AREA OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN ONTARIO TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE ERN CWA THIS MRNG. MORE HI CLD RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS WL ALSO STREAM OVER THE RDG
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL THE DAY WL TURN OUT MOSUNNY
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS. FCST H85 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 14-15C AND MIXING TO H825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING 80-85 AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE
MAXIMIZED NEAR LK MI IN THE H925 SW FLOW. BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE A WEAKER LK BREEZE WL FORM OFF LK SUP AS WELL AND BRING
SOME LOCAL COOLING TO SHORE COMMUNITIES.
TNGT...WITH STRENGTHENING SW H925 FLOW LIFTING H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C
BY 12Z WED NEAR THE WI BORDER AS WELL AS INCRSG PWAT TOWARD 1 INCH
OVER THE E TO 1.5 INCH OVER THE W...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER NGT. TEMPS
WL BE HIEST OVER THE W HALF IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE
COOLEST TEMPS WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT. DESPITE THE INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE AIRMASS WL SO
WARM THE RH WL BE TOO LO FOR ANY PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BROAD 595 H5 RIDGE THAT PRODUCED ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY IS FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. CORE OF WARMEST AIR /H85 TEMPS AOA
+24C/ REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY
AS WELL. SLIGHT COOLING IS FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES.
ON WEDNESDAY...SEEMS THERE IS STILL A SMALL RISK OF INCREASED MID
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS CWA ON NOSE OF H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS LOOKS LIKE ECMWF DID A FEW NIGHTS AGO
SHOWING GOOD SIGNAL WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR PRECIP. MORE
RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF ALONG WITH CANADIAN KEEP IT DRY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO JUST BUMP SKY UP FOR NOW AND KEEP FCST DRY.
MINIMAL DEEPER MOISTURE PER FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS WOULD LEAD TO
SPRINKLES IF SOMETHING DID WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. IF MID CLOUDS
ARE AROUND...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FCST WOULD POINT TO THEM
EVADING BY EARLY AFTN. H85 TEMPS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED WARMER THE
LAST FEW DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOW APPEARS THAT SOLID +20C H85 TEMPS
ARE AROUND IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING HIGHS WITH
MANY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPR 80S. GIVEN TRENDS WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWER 90S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF SCNTRL CWA WITH
WSW BLYR FLOW FCST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SWATH OF H85
DWPNTS WELL ABOVE +10C PLOWS ACROSS RESULTING IN SFC DWPNTS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA IN THE AFTN.
WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THE
WEEK.
ATTN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA
TO SEE WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT
VERY STOUT MID-LEVEL CAPPING AS H7 TEMPS ARE FCST WELL INTO THE
TEENS. EDGE OF MUCAPE GRADIENT SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN DEFLECT INTO CANADA ON EDGE
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION WILL WORK BACK INTO UPR LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPING OVR THE PLAINS WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD AT
THAT TIME WITH H7 TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY OF +14C TO
+16C. SOME HINTS AT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT MAY TRY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN THE CAPPING MAY
BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICK TO BRING SFC FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY BUT NOW SEEM
TO BE IN FAVOR OF IDEA THAT BRINGS FRONT INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND INTO SCNTRL AND EAST CWA THURSDAY
AFTN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK AND THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN CAPPING. ALSO...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS QUICKLY
SHUNTED MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN AS H85 WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING. IF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP /THINK THIS IS
A PRETTY BIG QUESTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAPPING/ THEN SEVERE STORMS
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVR SOUTH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OVR 40 KTS
AND MUCAPE OVR 2000-3000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FCST...BUT NO MORE AT THIS POINT WITH EXPECTED CAPPING. DEEP MIXING
MAY LOWER DWPNTS/HUMIDITY VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVR WESTERN INTERIOR. KNOCKED DWPTS DOWN FURTHER /LOWER
50S/ BUT DID NOT GO NEAR AS LOW AS MIXED DWPNT TOOL GAVE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DWPNTS/RH VALUES LATE
THURSDAY.
LOOKS QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS ON
KEWEENAW MAY GUST OVR 30 MPH...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MOST COOLING
WILL BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH REALLY HAS NOT FULLY ARRIVED BY THAT TIME
AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL WARM IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. SEE NO REASON WHY
MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT CRACK 80 DEGREES YET AGAIN...WITH MID-UPR
80S POSSIBLE SOUTH CNTRL. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW +21C H85
TEMPS SUPPORTING MAXES AROUND 90 DEGREES OVR MUCH OF CNTRL.
DEFINITELY SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BACKING AWAY FM THE COOLING THEY
WERE SHOWING EARLIER FOR FRIDAY. DOES LOOK A BIT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHTS FALL SOME WITH UPR LOW SETTLING
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY STILL PUSH PAST 80 DEGREES OVR CWA AWAY FM FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER SHORTWAVE/ELEVATED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CONSENSUS GAVE LOWER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY RAN WITH THAT
IDEA AS DIFFERENT RUNS OF DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND S-SW WITH AN ERLY LAKE BREEZE WIND
DEVELOPING AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT OVER WRN UPR MI LATE TNGT WL RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL LLWS
AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI...WHEN STRONGER
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MIGHT IMPACT MAINLY THE NCENTRAL LAKE. A MOISTER AIRMASS THAT
ARRIVES AHEAD OF THIS TROF MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME PATCHY FOG ON WED
NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
651 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON - THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED - POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK AROUND 6KFT AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GOVERN THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE
ADVANCING FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SOME INTEGRITY ALONG WITH A GUST COMPONENT
SUPPORTED BY A WELL MIXED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE NORTH IS EVIDENT ON THE GOES-E
11-3.9U IMAGERY. THE 26.06 RAP AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 26.00 NAM
HAVE A SIGNATURE OF THE MOISTURE FIELD IN THEIR THETA-E DEPICTION.
THE MODEST AMBIENT THETA-E INCREASE AROUND 800MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
BE ACTED UPON BY YET ANOTHER MATURE DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AGAIN...
ONLY EXPECTING A MODEST RESPONSE IN THE PRODUCTION OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS - FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE SKY WILL
SLOWLY FILL WITH CIRRUS TONIGHT AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS OVER
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE ELDERLY POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO MODIFICATION AS IT
EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 4C WARMER TODAY - THIS TRANSLATES TO A 6-8F
INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY/S MAXES. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WILL
SUPPORT A WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT - MORE NEAR LATE JUNE AVERAGES.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MIDLEVEL GYRE AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH ENOUGH EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE ADVENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM WILL LEAN INTO PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES NICELY WITH THE EDGE
OF THE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE ELEVATED
PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PRECEDE THIS RIDGE AXIS A
FAIR AMOUNT...MAKING INROADS TO THE LAKE HURON VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COINCIDENTALLY...A SOUTHWARD DIVING JET MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE INTO LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY AS
WELL AS INCREASED 700-500MB DEFORMATION AND A NOSE OF INCREASED 320K
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE MIX OF DYNAMICS NECESSITATES
A LOW CHANCE POP FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE THUMB OUT ON LAKE
HURON...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 9KFT WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
MEASURING POTENTIAL. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING UPSTREAM WILL
NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CWA...WAA AND ALOT OF INSOLATION FITS THE RECENT PROFILE FOR
OVERACHIEVING TEMPERATURES. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING
IT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE MUCH DRONED ABOUT THURSDAY PERIOD...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO PASS OVERHEAD...HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF
AN ULTRA IMPRESSIVE MIXED LAYER/AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IT IS
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT THAT LEADS TO THE QUESTION MARKS CONCERNING
THURSDAY HIGHS. THE NEW TWIST OFFERED BY THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS
THE EXPECTATION THAT A COVERAGE OF CLOUDS (SEE ECMWF 500MB RH) WILL
SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOW HOW
OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IS ANYONES GUESS. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY
WITNESS SHORTWAVE MATERIAL AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS PILE UP ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THESE RIDGES. SO...PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A
FAIR AMOUNT. STILL DON/T THINK IT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH
GIVEN A WELL MIXED PROFILE...BUT IT SHOULD LIMIT THE RUNAWAY
BEHAVIOR OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SO THE APPROACH THIS ISSUANCE WAS
TO MASSAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES WITH A SOLID
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH THE TANGIBLE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ALOFT AND INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE MIDLEVELS DID ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE WELL CAPPED...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
NONETHELESS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000-3500
J/KG SIGNIFIES THIS THREAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE WILL CARRY AN IMMEDIATE SEVERE RISK.
A TRAILING JET MAXIMUM SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND THE EDGE OF THE THETA E RIDGE (THINK FRONTAL ZONE) REQUIRES A
CONTINUED RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALOT
OF QUESTIONS REGARDING OVERALL POTENTIAL BUT VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE VORTS/HOTSPOTS FIRING ALONG THE THETA E
GRADIENT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
A ZONAL JET PATTERN AND A DECAYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPS A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY AND GOOD PART OF SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND APPEAR
TOTALLY DEPENDENT UPON ANY MCS TYPE ACTIVITY DIRECTLY HITTING THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO GIVE MUCH DISCUSSION ON
SPECIFICS. HOWEVER...THE SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN GIVES REASON FOR
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES.
MARINE...
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN TODAY. THE OFFSHORE NATURE
OF THE FLOW WILL USHER THE HIGHEST WAVES TO THE CANADIAN SHORE OF
LAKE HURON. FURTHERMORE...OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEHAVED WELL
ENOUGH TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT WAVE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE THUMB SHORELINE. THE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD...ONLY TO SUCCUMB TO A BRIEF EPISODE
OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARMER AIRMASS
ENCROACHES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE WARM FLOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE - SAVE LOCATIONS OVER INNER SAGINAW BAY AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE...WHERE THE WATER SURFACE IS WARMER TO OFFSET THE
NEGATIVE STABILITY INFLUENCES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MANN
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG IN THE PLAINS AND DEEP TROF OVER
QUEBEC/NE CONUS. A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THIS NW
FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ASSOCIATED CLD COVER OVER
ONTARIO INTO ERN LK SUP WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE ERN CWA...
MOST OF THIS CLD IS OF THE MID/HI VARIETY PER DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. OTRW...WITH SFC HI PRES SITUATED OVER NE
WI...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER THE W HALF. MORE CLD/SOME SHRA/TS ARE
IMPACTING THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT DESPITE PRESENCE
OF IMPRESSIVE CAP SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK/ABERDEEN RAOBS THAT IS
ON THE NRN EDGE OF VERY WARM AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY...UPR RDG TO THE W WL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E...WITH SFC HI PRES
SINKING SLOWLY S INTO THE LWR LKS/OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WED. EXPECT
AREA OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN ONTARIO TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE ERN CWA THIS MRNG. MORE HI CLD RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS WL ALSO STREAM OVER THE RDG
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL THE DAY WL TURN OUT MOSUNNY
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS. FCST H85 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 14-15C AND MIXING TO H825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING 80-85 AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE
MAXIMIZED NEAR LK MI IN THE H925 SW FLOW. BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE A WEAKER LK BREEZE WL FORM OFF LK SUP AS WELL AND BRING
SOME LOCAL COOLING TO SHORE COMMUNITIES.
TNGT...WITH STRENGTHENING SW H925 FLOW LIFTING H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C
BY 12Z WED NEAR THE WI BORDER AS WELL AS INCRSG PWAT TOWARD 1 INCH
OVER THE E TO 1.5 INCH OVER THE W...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER NGT. TEMPS
WL BE HIEST OVER THE W HALF IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE
COOLEST TEMPS WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT. DESPITE THE INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE AIRMASS WL SO
WARM THE RH WL BE TOO LO FOR ANY PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BROAD 595 H5 RIDGE THAT PRODUCED ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY IS FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. CORE OF WARMEST AIR /H85 TEMPS AOA
+24C/ REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY
AS WELL. SLIGHT COOLING IS FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES.
ON WEDNESDAY...SEEMS THERE IS STILL A SMALL RISK OF INCREASED MID
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS CWA ON NOSE OF H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS LOOKS LIKE ECMWF DID A FEW NIGHTS AGO
SHOWING GOOD SIGNAL WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR PRECIP. MORE
RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF ALONG WITH CANADIAN KEEP IT DRY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO JUST BUMP SKY UP FOR NOW AND KEEP FCST DRY.
MINIMAL DEEPER MOISTURE PER FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS WOULD LEAD TO
SPRINKLES IF SOMETHING DID WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. IF MID CLOUDS
ARE AROUND...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FCST WOULD POINT TO THEM
EVADING BY EARLY AFTN. H85 TEMPS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED WARMER THE
LAST FEW DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOW APPEARS THAT SOLID +20C H85 TEMPS
ARE AROUND IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING HIGHS WITH
MANY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPR 80S. GIVEN TRENDS WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWER 90S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF SCNTRL CWA WITH
WSW BLYR FLOW FCST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SWATH OF H85
DWPNTS WELL ABOVE +10C PLOWS ACROSS RESULTING IN SFC DWPNTS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA IN THE AFTN.
WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THE
WEEK.
ATTN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA
TO SEE WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT
VERY STOUT MID-LEVEL CAPPING AS H7 TEMPS ARE FCST WELL INTO THE
TEENS. EDGE OF MUCAPE GRADIENT SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN DEFLECT INTO CANADA ON EDGE
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION WILL WORK BACK INTO UPR LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPING OVR THE PLAINS WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD AT
THAT TIME WITH H7 TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY OF +14C TO
+16C. SOME HINTS AT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT MAY TRY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN THE CAPPING MAY
BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICK TO BRING SFC FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY BUT NOW SEEM
TO BE IN FAVOR OF IDEA THAT BRINGS FRONT INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND INTO SCNTRL AND EAST CWA THURSDAY
AFTN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK AND THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN CAPPING. ALSO...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS QUICKLY
SHUNTED MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN AS H85 WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING. IF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP /THINK THIS IS
A PRETTY BIG QUESTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAPPING/ THEN SEVERE STORMS
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVR SOUTH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OVR 40 KTS
AND MUCAPE OVR 2000-3000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FCST...BUT NO MORE AT THIS POINT WITH EXPECTED CAPPING. DEEP MIXING
MAY LOWER DWPNTS/HUMIDITY VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVR WESTERN INTERIOR. KNOCKED DWPTS DOWN FURTHER /LOWER
50S/ BUT DID NOT GO NEAR AS LOW AS MIXED DWPNT TOOL GAVE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DWPNTS/RH VALUES LATE
THURSDAY.
LOOKS QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS ON
KEWEENAW MAY GUST OVR 30 MPH...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MOST COOLING
WILL BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH REALLY HAS NOT FULLY ARRIVED BY THAT TIME
AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL WARM IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. SEE NO REASON WHY
MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT CRACK 80 DEGREES YET AGAIN...WITH MID-UPR
80S POSSIBLE SOUTH CNTRL. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW +21C H85
TEMPS SUPPORTING MAXES AROUND 90 DEGREES OVR MUCH OF CNTRL.
DEFINITELY SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BACKING AWAY FM THE COOLING THEY
WERE SHOWING EARLIER FOR FRIDAY. DOES LOOK A BIT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHTS FALL SOME WITH UPR LOW SETTLING
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY STILL PUSH PAST 80 DEGREES OVR CWA AWAY FM FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER SHORTWAVE/ELEVATED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CONSENSUS GAVE LOWER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY RAN WITH THAT
IDEA AS DIFFERENT RUNS OF DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND S-SW ON TUESDAY WITH AN ERLY LAKE
BREEZE WIND DEVELOPING AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI...WHEN STRONGER
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MIGHT IMPACT MAINLY THE NCENTRAL LAKE. A MOISTER AIRMASS THAT
ARRIVES AHEAD OF THIS TROF MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME PATCHY FOG ON WED
NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GOVERN THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE
ADVANCING FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SOME INTEGRITY ALONG WITH A GUST COMPONENT
SUPPORTED BY A WELL MIXED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE NORTH IS EVIDENT ON THE GOES-E
11-3.9U IMAGERY. THE 26.06 RAP AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 26.00 NAM
HAVE A SIGNATURE OF THE MOISTURE FIELD IN THEIR THETA-E DEPICTION.
THE MODEST AMBIENT THETA-E INCREASE AROUND 800MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
BE ACTED UPON BY YET ANOTHER MATURE DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AGAIN...
ONLY EXPECTING A MODEST RESPONSE IN THE PRODUCTION OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS - FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE SKY WILL
SLOWLY FILL WITH CIRRUS TONIGHT AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS OVER
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE ELDERLY POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO MODIFICATION AS IT
EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 4C WARMER TODAY - THIS TRANSLATES TO A 6-8F
INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY/S MAXES. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WILL
SUPPORT A WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT - MORE NEAR LATE JUNE AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MIDLEVEL GYRE AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH ENOUGH EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE ADVENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM WILL LEAN INTO PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES NICELY WITH THE EDGE
OF THE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE ELEVATED
PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PRECEDE THIS RIDGE AXIS A
FAIR AMOUNT...MAKING INROADS TO THE LAKE HURON VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COINCIDENTALLY...A SOUTHWARD DIVING JET MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE INTO LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY AS
WELL AS INCREASED 700-500MB DEFORMATION AND A NOSE OF INCREASED 320K
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE MIX OF DYNAMICS NECESSITATES
A LOW CHANCE POP FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE THUMB OUT ON LAKE
HURON...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 9KFT WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
MEASURING POTENTIAL. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING UPSTREAM WILL
NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CWA...WAA AND ALOT OF INSOLATION FITS THE RECENT PROFILE FOR
OVERACHIEVING TEMPERATURES. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING
IT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE MUCH DRONED ABOUT THURSDAY PERIOD...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO PASS OVERHEAD...HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF
AN ULTRA IMPRESSIVE MIXED LAYER/AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IT IS
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT THAT LEADS TO THE QUESTION MARKS CONCERNING
THURSDAY HIGHS. THE NEW TWIST OFFERED BY THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS
THE EXPECTATION THAT A COVERAGE OF CLOUDS (SEE ECMWF 500MB RH) WILL
SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOW HOW
OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IS ANYONES GUESS. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY
WITNESS SHORTWAVE MATERIAL AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS PILE UP ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THESE RIDGES. SO...PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A
FAIR AMOUNT. STILL DON/T THINK IT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH
GIVEN A WELL MIXED PROFILE...BUT IT SHOULD LIMIT THE RUNAWAY
BEHAVIOR OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SO THE APPROACH THIS ISSUANCE WAS
TO MASSAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES WITH A SOLID
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH THE TANGIBLE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ALOFT AND INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE MIDLEVELS DID ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE WELL CAPPED...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
NONETHELESS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000-3500
J/KG SIGNIFIES THIS THREAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE WILL CARRY AN IMMEDIATE SEVERE RISK.
A TRAILING JET MAXIMUM SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND THE EDGE OF THE THETA E RIDGE (THINK FRONTAL ZONE) REQUIRES A
CONTINUED RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALOT
OF QUESTIONS REGARDING OVERALL POTENTIAL BUT VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE VORTS/HOTSPOTS FIRING ALONG THE THETA E
GRADIENT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
A ZONAL JET PATTERN AND A DECAYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPS A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY AND GOOD PART OF SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND APPEAR
TOTALLY DEPENDENT UPON ANY MCS TYPE ACTIVITY DIRECTLY HITTING THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO GIVE MUCH DISCUSSION ON
SPECIFICS. HOWEVER...THE SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN GIVES REASON FOR
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES.
&&
.MARINE...
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN TODAY. THE OFFSHORE NATURE
OF THE FLOW WILL USHER THE HIGHEST WAVES TO THE CANADIAN SHORE OF
LAKE HURON. FURTHERMORE...OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEHAVED WELL
ENOUGH TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT WAVE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE THUMB SHORELINE. THE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD...ONLY TO SUCCUMB TO A BRIEF EPISODE
OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARMER AIRMASS
ENCROACHES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE WARM FLOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE - SAVE LOCATIONS OVER INNER SAGINAW BAY AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE...WHERE THE WATER SURFACE IS WARMER TO OFFSET THE
NEGATIVE STABILITY INFLUENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
//DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE
GUST POTENTIAL REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......MANN
AVIATION.....MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING NW WINDS INTO THE ERN
CWA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING HAS DROPPED INLAND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWAT VALUES INTO THE 0.60 INCH TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD STILL ALLOW INLAND MIN READINGS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 12C-14C RANGE...GUIDANCE MAX INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOKED REASONABLE. MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 35
PERCENT. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING
THAT TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS AND
LATEST ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP ON A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE A POCKET
OF H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND BEST FORCING FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING TO THE NORTH WOULD TEND TO A
DRIER FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAIN CORE OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AOA 20C FOR THE WEST AND 17C FOR THE EAST
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD MIX TO ABOUT H8 DURING THE DAY...SO
TEMPS THERE ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF SFC TEMP POTENTIAL. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW STATES WILL TRY TO
ERODE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL VARIABILITY IS STILL A LITTLE HIGH ON THE TIMING OF RIDGE
DEAMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL WAA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEREBY KEEPING THE RIDGE A LITTLE
SHARPER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS AS WELL. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE IN THESE PATTERNS...THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN CONTROL A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE PREDICTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
BELOW 65 ACROSS THE WEST. FARTHER EAST...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THIS PASSAGE THAN THE GFS. COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE
IDEA...WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF APPROACH FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY HAS BECOME A QUESTION WITH TROPICAL STORM
DEBBIE SPINNING IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBBIE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THERE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE GULF AND PREVENT NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE SEEN WITH
THIS FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-CENTRAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAP FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
COOLER AIR LAGS THE FRONT SOMEWHAT...SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER SEVERAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. COOLEST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. THOUGH
WITH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS NOW IN THE 60S...COOLING EFFECT IS
DIMINISHING. RH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UNDER 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE NOT AN ISSUE ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PATTERN BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL AFTER THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND WILL BRING A COUPLE
VERY WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW AS MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH. ONE OF THE
WEAK WAVES QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. ONCE AGAIN...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT STALLS FROM IA TO
IN AND ROBS THE AREA OF ANY CHANCE OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE TRANQUIL
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND S-SW ON TUESDAY WITH AN ERLY LAKE
BREEZE WIND DEVELOPING AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NORTHERN MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY...A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL TAKE ITS PLACE...BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
FEF/SWR
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE THE RETURNS OFF THE 88D
TO THE NORTH OF WHITEFISH BAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MQT AND APX
RADARS ARE PICKING THEM UP AT HIGHER THAN 10000 FT THINK THAT THEY
ARE SPRINKLES AT MOST. HRRR SHOWS SOMETHING MOVING INTO THE AREA
BY 10Z, AND THE CIGS DO FALL TO 2500 FT UPSTREAM. SO WILL KEEP IT
AT SPRINKLES FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RETURNS AS THEY
MOVE OVER SOME OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
ONLY A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING.
GIVEN DECENT VERTICAL MIXING TODAY AND LOWER DEW POINT AIR
MASS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND COMPLETELY
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM FORECAST. STILL EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
ERN AND FAR NE LOWER...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING SPOTTY MID
CLOUDS DROPPING OUT OF ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
GOING FORECAST ON TARGET...AND TWEAKS TO FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL THUS FAR. REMAINING DIURNAL CU (LOCATED EAST OF US-127
AND SOUTH OF M-32 CORRIDORS) CONTINUE TO STEADILY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE
SKIES ARE CLEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPS INLAND...
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL USUALLY OCCURS IN THE COLD SEASON. THE GTLKS ARE
JUST UPSTREAM OF AN OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/
GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM BEHIND DEVELOPING
NEW ENGLAND CUT-OFF LOW. HOT SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDS FAR N INTO CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ADVANCING TROF OVER THE PAC NW
WILL NUDGE THIS HIGH EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNW FLOW INTO THE GTLKS
THRU TUE BUT WITH 40M HGT RISES.
AT THE SFC: HIGH PRES IS OVER WRN LAKE SUP AT 19Z WILL SLIDE TO MKE
BY DAYBREAK TUE AND INTO SRN LAKE MI BY SUNSET.
NOW: AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...THE CLIMB TO HIT 70F HAS BEEN SLOW.
MOST PLACES DIDN`T REACH IT UNTIL 3 PM! TODAY`S TEMPS ARE 5-8F
BELOW NORMAL. STRATOCU HAVE FADED OVER THE ERN U.P. AND NW LOWER
AND THE TREND IS SEWD. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE 7-8 PM.
TEMPS: GIVEN THE QUIET/NEAR NORMAL PATTERN...USED A BLEND OF ALL
GUIDANCE WITH BIAS CORRECTION FOR TNGT`S LOWS AND TUE`S HIGHS. DID
LOWER TEMPS ANOTHER 3-5F TNGT FROM PLN-INDIAN RIVER-ATLANTA-MIO.
TNGT: M/CLEAR. A FEW THIN SHREDS OF CIRRUS. LOWS /40-49F INLAND
AND 50-56F ALONG THE COASTS/. DID SEE 39F THIS MRNG 15N OF
ATLANTA. THIS PROBABLY REPEATS. SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK MENTION OF
PATCHY F IN THE FCST. CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHED ONLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDEST AREAS...NEAR CAD/GOV/HTL/ACB/PLN.
TUE: ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY. M/SUNNY WITH TEMP RECOVERY BACK TO
NORMAL /74-80F EXCEPT COOLER IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST/. 850 TEMP
OF +10 SUPPORTS 77F FOR HIGH TEMPS. LOW-LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN TOO
STRONG FOR LAKE BREEZES ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE. WINDS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN OFFER G14-17 KTS WITH A ONE-TIME PEAK G20.
BECAUSE OF THIS...REMOVED COOL BIAS ALONG THE COAST AND TOOK
78-80F ALL THE WAY TO SHORELINE.
DO EXPECT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.P. AND NW LOWER
MI...INCLUDING GT BAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO LAKE MI.
DWPTS ARE BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 25%
BLEND WITH MET MOS TO LOWER SOME MORE AS DWPTS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS
LOW AS TODAY. MAV MOS NOT USED AS IT`S ~7F HIGHER THAN MET. STILL
HAD TO TAKE FEW LOCATIONS DOWN ANOTHER 3-4F. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS/DWPTS FROM 4 AM APX FCST. SO THREAT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN HWO.
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
LARGE SCALE SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
COAST...A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....BIT OF A -NAO LOOK TO IT
ALL. TROPICAL STORM "DEBBY" CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. AS UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OPENS UP AND ITS
REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO "FOLD" OVER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
ALLOWING WARM AIR TO RETURN TO MICHIGAN. FLOW THEN FLATTENS OUT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME HEIGHT FALLS BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: DEEP LAYER RIDGING FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM AIR RETURN...BUT
THERE IS A POCKET OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FORECAST FROM MICHIGAN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH ELSE FROM HAPPENING.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS FRONT EXPECT
TO LIE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...GETTING STRETCHED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. THERE
IS AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
THIS WILL BE CAPPED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (+12C 700MB
TEMPERATURES/1000-500MB THICKNESSES APPROACHING 579DM ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING). SO APPEARS AS IF CONVECTION WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING GOING...AND EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE
80S...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE STRETCHED ITS WAY
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THAN WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING PEAK HEATING...MAY BE SOME CLOUDS WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP A LID ON
THINGS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL...NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY WHEN DEALING WITH THIS MUCH
POTENTIAL ENERGY. THURSDAY COULD BE A REALLY WARM DAY...THE ONE
CAVEAT BEING POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES (THAT
OFTEN BITES US DURING POTENTIAL HEAT WAVES). STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN LOWER REACHING OR ECLIPSING 90 DEGREES.
DON`T THINK ANY RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY UNLESS THE SOO CAN REACH 90
(ANJ RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY 89/1971).
EXTENDED FORECAST (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): BY THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BEEN
FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
ON THE HORIZON AT THIS POINT.
DAILY SPECIFICS...FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARM...AND PERHAPS NOT QUITE
AS HUMID AS THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...MAYBE A
BIT WARMER SUNDAY BUT WILL GO DRY BOTH DAYS. WILL START THE NEW
MONDAY FORECAST OUT DRY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE LOWER CIGS THAT ARE MOVING DOWN THE
EAST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO E UPPER. TIMING ON THE CLOUDS
PUTS THEM AT PLN AROUND 08Z AND APN AROUND 09Z. WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME TEMPO GROUPS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU CAN BE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/
TNGT: LOW END SCA`S ARE IN PROGRESS ON THE ST MARY`S RVR. GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVNG...SO SCA`S WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NW OVER THE WATERS...AND INCREASE OVER LAKE HURON.
EXPECT LOW-END 22-25 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG AND LAST THRU THE
NGT. SCA WILL POST AT 4 PM FOR 5 NM E OF THE BRIDGE TO STURGEON
POINT LIGHT.
TUE: LOW-END SCA`S WILL CONTINUE THRU 5 PM FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER MI.
SOME 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER NEARSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO MI. SO LIGHT W WINDS WILL
BECOME SW. NO HEADLINES FOR LAKE MI/WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARY`S RVR.
TUE NGT-WED: HIGH PRES DEPARTS TO THE E WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW
ON ALL NRN MI NEARSHORE WATERS. NO HEADLINES AS STABILITY INCREASES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ347-
348.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...FEF/NTS
SHORT TERM...JDH
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...JDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE SFC FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI INTO
WESTERN WI MAY BE TAPPED TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE NRN
TIER OF THE MPX CWFA. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AS TO WHETHER THE
PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND...SO HAVE USED A MIXTURE OF
10-20 POPS WITH WORDING RANGING FROM SPRINKLES TO SHWRS/TSTMS. AS
THE FRONT SLIPS PAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BECOME ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP AND H5
HEIGHTS TO LESSEN...BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR THU.
GRANTED...TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM...RISING TO THE MID 80S TO ARND
90...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S TMRW.
THEREFORE...ONCE THE HEAT ADVY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE
EXPIRES...NO FURTHER HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED. AS FOR
PRECIP TMRW...A FEW BUCKLES IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY PRODUCE ISOLD
SHWR/TSTMS TMRW BUT PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE QUITE LOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL
SETTLE OVER NRN IL...SRN IA AND SERN NE THRU SAT AFTN. SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL GLIDE OVER THE WOBBLING STNRY FNT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLD TO SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS FRI THRU SAT. POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT AND MAINLY
FOR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING A PRIMARILY ZONAL /WNW-ESE/
FLOW...WILL NOT LOOK FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LOWS
GENERALLY 65-70. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH AS HIGH AS THE MID
90S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL APPROACH
FROM THE W...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 IF NOT
LOWER 90S...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR PRECIP AS SEVERAL LOW
PRES CENTERS PUSH E ALONG THE RESIDUAL STNRY FRONT WOBBLING OVER
THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP NOR ANY STRONG
HEATING...MAINLY LEADING TO HAZY...HOT AND HUMID SUMMER WX.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FRONT STARTING OUT THIS PERIOD DRAPED ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES OVER
TO RNH. WINDS WITHIN FRONTAL TROUGH LGT AND VFR WITH NW WINDS
SETTING IN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS WRN MN. A FEW ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT RAP SOUNDINGS...IF ANY SORT OF LIFT CAN BE ACHIEVED AT
550 MB /14K FT/...THERE ARE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE TO WORK
WITH...WHICH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SPARK THESE SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH COVERAGE ON SHOWERS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT
OF TAFS. OTHER ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD THAT IS A BIT HARDER TO GAGE
IS THE EXPANDING AREA OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS WRN MN BEHIND THE
FRONT. RAP/NAM HAVE A BEAT ON THESE CLOUDS...AND CURRENT TAFS
TIMED THEM IN WELL. HOWEVER...WITH THIS SORT OF EXPANSION SEEN
THIS EVENING...IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS COULD
WORK THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF
WILL BE NO ISSUES WITH THU AS NW WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS SET IN
WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC.
KMSP...MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THIS FORECAST IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN
WITH DEVELOPING CIGS OUT WEST. GIVEN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY HAVE
BECOME...THINK WHAT HAS BEEN THE OVERZEALOUS GFS MAY ACTUALLY BE
RIGHT THIS EVENING. KEPT CONDITIONS VFR...BUT DID INTRODUCE A
LOWER VFR CIG. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 8Z AND 11Z...AS 00Z GFSLAMP INDICATES.
BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE THIS BAND OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE FIELD BY
12Z...WITH NO ISSUES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WAY.
/OUTLOOK/
.FRIDAY...VFR. WINDS S AT 5 TO 10KTS.
.SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS NNW AT 5 TO 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE
SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR PEPIN-PIERCE.
&&
$$
JPC/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
(TONIGHT)
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO TOLERABLE LEVELS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE TO CONTINUE. FOLLOWING VERIFICATION
FROM LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS TEMPS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WELL.
BROWNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
(FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY)
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST 850MB TEMPS I HAVE
EVER SEEN WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AROUND 30C...SO WILL
SEE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 101
TO 108 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DEWPTS WILL BE MID 50S FAR SOUTH TO MID 60S FAR
NORTH...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE.
BUT WITH THE HEAT PERSISTING FOR THE NEAR FUTURE...AGREE THAT HEAT
ADVISORY IS WELL WARRANTED FROM TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME. IF CONDITIONS PERSIST BEYOND THAT...WHICH LOOKS LIKELY...WILL
NEED TO EXTEND ADVISORY AND/OR UPGRADE TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
DUE TO THE DURATION OF THIS HEAT WAVE.
IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE HIGHER
DEWPTS POOL...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AS FOR ANY PCPN...ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES FIRE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY JUST SKIM ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA ONLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AS THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SO HEAT INDICES TO BE IN THE 100 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE.
BEYOND THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS DRY AND HOT WEATHER
PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
102 THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...IF YOU CAN CALL
THEM THAT...IN THE NORTH NEAR THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR OUR AREA
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED OVER
AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. RUC AND NAM ARE BOTH VERY SIMILAR IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET WITH 1000FT WINDS RAMPING UP TO AROUND 40 KTS BEGINNING IN
THE 05-08Z TIME FRAME...SO HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR TO ALL LOCATIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES EXPECTING
GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE DURING LATE MORNAING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS CONTINUING THEIR GRADUAL VEERING
TREND....BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH
RUC AND NAM ARE FORECASTING LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE TO AROUND
40KTS AT ONLY 1000FT AGL AFT 06Z...AND GIVEN RATHER LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS DURING THIS TIME (AOB 7 KTS) HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
O8-15Z TIME FRAME.
TRUETT
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH FUEL MOISTURES BELOW 9 PERCENT...THE
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRENT A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO WILL JUST MENTION
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE HWO AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.
BYRD
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DATE ST. LOUIS COLUMBIA QUINCY
----------------------------------------------
JUNE 27 104(1952) 101(1980) 102(1931)
JUNE 28 104(1952) 103(1936) 104(1934)
JUNE 29 105(1952) 104(1901) 103(1934)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 72 108 79 104 / 0 0 0 5
QUINCY 74 104 75 100 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 69 107 73 103 / 0 0 0 5
JEFFERSON CITY 68 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 5
SALEM 65 105 71 103 / 0 0 0 5
FARMINGTON 65 105 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS
MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-
MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST.
LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAMS
IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE
IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1111 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVING DIMINISHED TO NEARLY CALM INLAND...EXCEPT
REMAINING 2 TO 4 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. A LAND BREEZE
LIKELY WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY THU DAYBREAK WITH
SSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS MIMICKING TEMPS ESPECIALLY
SEVERAL HRS LEADING TO SUNRISE. CURRENT MIN FORECAST IN LINE WITH
ONLY TWEAKS UPWARD BY A DEGREE OR 2 NEEDED FOR THE BEACHES. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM ITS CENTER
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. NO POPS WITH A CLOUDLESS SKY ON TAP
FOR THE ILM CWA TONIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATM COLUMN VIA
NEARBY 00Z RAOBS...WITH PWS LESS THAN 3/4 OF AN INCH. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND SOME SERIOUS CAPPING FROM 850MB AND UPWARDS...WITH
INSTABILITY LACKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...PERHAPS MID 90S WELL INLAND ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SUCH THAT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DUE TO MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 2 OR
THREE HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS COMBINE TO YIELD
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 WHILE MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE FRONT PRESENT BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS DESPITE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON FRIDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM ALONG THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST ABUNDANT. POPS
ARE BASICALLY 0 THURSDAY AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SIZZLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ASPHALT
MIRAGES WILL BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND AS INTENSE HEAT TAKES HOLD OF
THE AREA...AS A MAMMOTH RIDGE ALOFT BARRELS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-112 FRI AND SAT. AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR H.I. VALUES OVER 105
DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A WARNING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AS INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY...BUT THE WATCH TIME FOR NOW IS VALID
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO THE NATURAL INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. IF YOU BELIEVE IN THE ECMWF...WE COULD
HAVE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...FRIDAY 101 (1959) SATURDAY 100 (1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990) MONDAY 97 (1980).
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...FRIDAY 101 (1998) SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990) MONDAY 102 (1954).
AT THE SURFACE AN AMPLIFIED THERMAL-TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE FAR INTERIOR AND SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SW WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LARGE LAND VS SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD DRIVE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL PASS WELL E AND NE OF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT HERE...EXPECT POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE
RIP THREAT...BUT EVEN THIS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN LOCAL IMPACT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE DRY BELOW 850 MB...NO FOG. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER FLORIDA DOMINATES THE WEATHER. THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTH SOUTHWEST RESULTANT IN THE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE MYRTLES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ONLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS FROM SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER UNTIL 3 AM THU. LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS DIMINISHING NICELY IN CONCERT WITH THE
LATEST HOURLY HRRR MODEL DATA. EXPECT NE-E WINDS TO DROP TO N AROUND
10 KT OVERNIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THE SFC PG RELAXING DUE TO THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ITS CENTER OVER GA...MIGRATING ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK LAND BREEZE NEAR
SHORE...WITH WINDS FROM THE NW 5 TO 10 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2
TO 5 FT RANGE WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVE PORTION OF THE SIG SEAS
WILL LOWER BUT THE S TO SE SWELL COMPONENT FROM WHATS LEFT OF DEBBY
WILL CONTINUE. DOMINANT OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL RUN AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND PLENTY FRESH WATER WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR BOATING AND RECREATIONAL EXCURSIONS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD 4 FEET OR LESS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GROWING SE
WAVES OF 4-5 FEET MAY BE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS AS DEBBY
PASSES WELL E OF THE COAST. EACH AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
S-SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DUE TO THE STRONG LAND VS SEA-SFC
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE SEA SPECTRUM SAT-MON WILL BE COMPRISED
OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 1-2 FT AT 4-5
SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOCAL WINDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND MAINLY ON LAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND WELL
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. PRESSURE PATTERN SAT-MON WILL FOSTER SW WINDS
10-15 KT...HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 3PM-7PM IN-SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
800 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO CALM INLAND AN HR OR 3 AFTER SUNSET
EXCEPT REMAINING 2 TO 4 MPH ALONG THE BEACHES. A LAND BREEZE LIKELY
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY THU DAYBREAK WITH SSTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS MIMICKING TEMPS ESPECIALLY SEVERAL HRS
LEADING TO SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING
INVERTED TROUGH HAVE BEEN THE ONLY STORY IN AN OTHERWISE BEAUTIFUL
EARLY SUMMER DAY. LARGE EXPANSE OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS WINDS
SLOWLY EASE DUE TO WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
EASING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OF WINDS SHORTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL...AND TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN THE DRY COLUMN AFTER
DARK. DURING THE NIGHT...MID LEVEL HIGH PUSHES EAST HELPING RAISE
850MB TEMPS 4-6C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT AS THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
COOLING SINCE SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH BELOW A STEEP
INVERSION...WILL BE FORCED TO RISE AS WELL. THE COOLEST TEMPS MAY BE
FELT A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF...OR EVEN RISING
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MORNING. STILL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 60...EXCEPT
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST POCOSIN SWAMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...PERHAPS MID 90S WELL INLAND ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SUCH THAT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DUE TO MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 2 OR
THREE HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS COMBINE TO YIELD
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 WHILE MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE FRONT PRESENT BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS DESPITE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON FRIDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM ALONG THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST ABUNDANT. POPS
ARE BASICALLY 0 THURSDAY AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SIZZLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ASPHALT
MIRAGES WILL BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND AS INTENSE HEAT TAKES HOLD OF
THE AREA...AS A MAMMOTH RIDGE ALOFT BARRELS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-112 FRI AND SAT. AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR H.I. VALUES OVER 105
DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A WARNING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AS INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY...BUT THE WATCH TIME FOR NOW IS VALID
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO THE NATURAL INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. IF YOU BELIEVE IN THE ECMWF...WE COULD
HAVE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...FRIDAY 101 (1959) SATURDAY 100 (1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990) MONDAY 97 (1980).
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...FRIDAY 101 (1998) SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990) MONDAY 102 (1954).
AT THE SURFACE AN AMPLIFIED THERMAL-TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE FAR INTERIOR AND SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SW WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LARGE LAND VS SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD DRIVE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL PASS WELL E AND NE OF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT HERE...EXPECT POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE
RIP THREAT...BUT EVEN THIS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN LOCAL IMPACT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE DRY BELOW 850 MB...NO FOG. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER FLORIDA DOMINATES THE WEATHER. THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTH SOUTHWEST RESULTANT IN THE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE MYRTLES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MURRELLS INLET THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND SOUTH OF
THE INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO 3 AM THURSDAY. LATEST BUOY AND
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS DIMINISHING NICELY IN CONCERT
WITH THE LATEST HOURLY HRRR MODEL DATA. EXPECT NE-E WINDS TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AS A RESULT OF THE SFC PG
RELAXING OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BACK TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
GA TOWARD DAYBREAK THU. COULD EVEN OBSERVE A WEAK LAND BREEZE NEAR
SHORE WITH WINDS FROM THE NW 5 TO 10 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2
TO 5 FT RANGE WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVE PORTION OF THE SIG SEAS
WILL LOWER BUT THE S TO SE SWELL FROM DEBBY WILL CONTINUE. DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL RUN AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND PLENTY FRESH WATER WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR BOATING AND RECREATIONAL EXCURSIONS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD 4 FEET OR LESS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GROWING SE
WAVES OF 4-5 FEET MAY BE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS AS DEBBY
PASSES WELL E OF THE COAST. EACH AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
S-SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DUE TO THE STRONG LAND VS SEA-SFC
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE SEA SPECTRUM SAT-MON WILL BE COMPRISED
OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 1-2 FT AT 4-5
SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOCAL WINDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND MAINLY ON LAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND WELL
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. PRESSURE PATTERN SAT-MON WILL FOSTER SW WINDS
10-15 KT...HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 3PM-7PM IN-SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
755 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
755 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THURSDAY...NOON TO 8 PM. POOLING HIGH SFC TD
WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO LOW 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC FRONT WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST BY EARLY THU MORNING...BUT DRY AIR
LAGS WELL BEHIND IT...GRADUALLY BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER
HUMIDITIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON - EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...VERY THIN LINE OF ECHO DETECTED VIA 88-D RADAR IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI. VERY HIGH BASED AND APPEARS
PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE A LOFT TAPPING
INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST THAT LONG AFTER
SUNDOWN...AND MOST OF THE PCPN IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAY HAVE
TO ADD SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATE OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR DRY CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH KRST NEAR 08-09Z AND KLSE 10-11Z.
MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN SOME SUB VFR
CIGS...WHICH SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SOME 2500-3000 CLOUDS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY EVIDENCED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS...BUT
TRENDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AREA. WILL OPT TO STAY WITH SOME SCT035
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHER MID LEVEL CLOUDS MORE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. ALSO...THE HRRR POINTS TO SOME -SHRA
POSSIBILITIES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. CHANCES ARE
TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
755 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLENTY TO CONSIDER INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES...ASSESSING
MODEL TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIP TRENDS.
OVERALL...GIVEN THE PATTERN AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS AND
WEAK NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT ANY
DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS...SO LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER GFS AND GEM OFFER SOME HOPE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINS. HOPEFULLY THE LATTER SCENARIO CAN SOMEHOW COME TO FRUITION. S
SEEING THE INITIALIZED ECMWF 500 MILLIBAR FLOW VERSUS THE 240
HOUR VALID 12Z/JULY 6TH DOES NOT EXACTLY GIVE MUCH HOPE FOR A
PATTERN TO CHANGE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA...COUPLED WITH AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS IN THE
VERY WARM 23 TO 28C RANGE...WILL LEAN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI
WED THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING A SHORT-LIVED HEAT WAVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI THIS WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY THIS EVENING THEN
CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SSW WINDS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. THE BLOW TORCH
WILL BE ON WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND
28C...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MANY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. BUMPED THESE VALUES
UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE FAVORABLE HOT SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH THU IS
BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE HEAT AND HIGH HEAT INDICES...WED MAY END UP
HAVING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE HUMIDITY.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW ON WED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE GRASS AND
OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AMPLITUDE OF UPPER RIDGING REACHED ITS PEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. 500 MILLIBAR THEN FLATTENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
VERY WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING READINGS IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR LOWS. PREFER THE DRIER LOOK THE 12Z
NAM/00Z ECMWF WITH QPF ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. NEVERTHELESS 925/850 TEMPS DO NOT TAIL OFF TOO MUCH.
925 TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 20SC/LOW 30SC. AFTERNOON RELIEF
EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE AS LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN. INLAND...GOING OFF
STRICTLY THE 925/850 TEMP TECHNIQUE...MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S WITH
SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS PLAUSIBLE. LIGHTER WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS
MAY RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE POOLING...AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
GFS AND GEM ARE BOTH CONVECTING WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. 700
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 12C SO THINK BREAKING THE CAP MAY BE REAL
TOUGH. THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH RELIEF POTENTIAL HIGHEST IN THE FAR EAST
NEAR LAKE MI.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WNW UPPER FLOW. CORE OF THE HOT AXIS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF HAS THE
HOTTEST 925 TEMPS STILL NUDGING INTO THE CWA...GFS WELL SOUTH. THE
NAM IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. STILL KEEPS US WELL INTO THE 90S. PREFER
THE DRIER AND LESS NOISY LOOK OF THE ECMWF/NAM VERSUS THE GFS/GEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND GEM CONTINUE WITH NOISY VORTS WITHIN THE WNW 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW SUGGESTING SOME RAIN. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT CONDITIONS
WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. LEANING DRY LOOK AT THIS
POINT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WITH MODELS HINTING AT SHORTWAVE IN THE NW
UPPER FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS SHOWING THE WET LOOK SO FROM A
WISHCASTING POINT OF VIEW THIS WOULD BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS WAVE AS BEING LEGIT THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. GFS LOOKS TOO FAST. HINTS OF
WAA INDUCED PRECIP...QUITE LIGHT ON THE ECMWF. GFS LOOKS OVERBLOWN.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
AGAIN GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF SLOWER.
12Z RUN SHOWS A LITTLE MORE ACCELERATION THOUGH PRECIP LARGELY TO
OUR NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL
BE SOME CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING.
AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS... NAM AND RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CRANK WINDS UP TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY WITHIN 1500 FT OVER A
SHALLOW INVERSION. THESE WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER ON THE GFS SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY... HOWEVER MENTIONED THE WIND SHEAR IN THE MSN
TAF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 22 TO 25KT EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING MSN. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A VERY WARM
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...UP
TO 23 KNOTS. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. GIVEN
THE BORDERLINE SCENARIO AND LAKE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE LAND
TEMPERATURES HAVING A STABILIZING EFFECT...DID NOT ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25 MPH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE GRASS AND OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S
TODAY...THEN REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH 100 BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING IN.
ELSEWHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 90S. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS REACHED
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN A BIT OF A COOLING WESTERLY WIND
WILL COME IN FROM THE LAKE...AND TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE IN THE
FORM OF CONVECTION. HRRR AND NSSL BOTH SUGGEST A FAIRLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A STABILIZING EFFECT
FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER WE SHOULD BE SITTING ON 2000-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME...BUT IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STORMS COULD
DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY...AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...FROM 25-30 KTS MID DAY TO
AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO HELP WITH MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING POPPING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO WILL
CARRY 20 POPS THERE INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPS AROUND 90 AGAIN.
A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH. TIMING APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY AND MAX INSTABILITY. THEREFORE TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE ARE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION OF SIGNIFICANCE (GENERAL WETTING OVER A 1/2 INCH) IS
VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND THEN ACTUALLY.
THE LARGE SCALE MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTEN AND THIS
LEADS TO SOME GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. MY PROBLEM
WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH IS TIMING SHORTWAVES OVER THE CREST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET (WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA). BEING BETWEEN THE LARGE AND BUILDING
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS (LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR 100 W) AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH (LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 65 W)
BRINGS EVERY SHORTWAVE THAT TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL THEN RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH EACH OF
THESE. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS FOR THE MOST PART NORTH AND EAST
OF HERE AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GULF INFLOW INTO ANY OF THESE
SHORTWAVES EVEN SO... I DO NOT SEE ANY OF THESE EVENTS AS BEGINNING
WET ENOUGH HELP OUR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
WHAT IS SEE HAPPENING AT UPPER LEVELS IS A LARGE STORM EAST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS MORNING MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. THAT BUILDS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHICH IS
WHY SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN END UP BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A GENERAL PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT HOW
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN GETS MOST OF OUR BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS). MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE... THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.... KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR NORTH AND EAST OF HERE AND THE
VERY HOT AIR SOUTH AND WEST OF HERE.
THE GENERIC FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20
PCT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 85 TO 90 AND LOWS 60 TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE BY 12Z THURSDAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. SOME OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SHOWS IFR NEAR MKG AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
FORMS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. DECIDED TO ADD THE IFR TO THE MKG
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RATHER QUIET ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS RESULTING IN LOW WAVE ACTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY STORMS GOING TODAY THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WE WILL BE SITTING ON NEARLY 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG
QUICKLY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40 KTS. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE
OF THE PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ072>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
108 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.UPDATE...KUEX INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF LINE FROM KK82 TO
KHJH. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A 40-50KT 850MB JET STREAK EXISTS
OVER THIS AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRESENT AROUND THE 310K
SURFACE. RAP ANALYSIS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
SUGGEST A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION THROUGH ABOUT 800MB SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ON THE WEAK SIDE. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DECAYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PROMOTED AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW WHICH IS APPROACHING KGRI FROM THE WEST. KUEX
INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY INFILTRATE
KGRI BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. THIS WILL PRESENT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 06-09Z...AT WHICH TIME SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR
20000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO CLEAN UP FIRE
WEATHER/HEAT PRODUCTS AND TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TONIGHT
ALONG AN NEAR AND NORTH OF AN ELEVATED FRONT AS A RIPPLE OF ENERGY
MOVES BY. WE ARE SO CAPPED THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO
STAY TOGETHER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER STARTING OFF THE DAY
RATHER WARM WITH READINGS WELL IN THE 70S THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES
HAVE SKY ROCKETED WELL INTO THE 90S...ALTHOUGH READINGS OVER 100F
HAVE BEEN MORE OF THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON. KGRI HAS ALREADY
REACHED A NEW RECORD HIGH OF 107 DEGREES...WITH THE PREVIOUS
RECORD 105 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1936. THE ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH
FOR GRAND ISLAND IS 108 SET IN 1946 AND 1933...AND WE ARE EDGING
CLOSER TO THAT...IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE DRY...HOT CONDITIONS HAVE
ALSO BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. A FIRE/SMOKE PLUME WHICH ORIGINATED
IN PHILLIPS COUNTY KANSAS WAS EVIDENT ON KUEX RADAR EARLY THIS
AFTN.
PATTERN ALOFT REFLECTED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKED ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTLE COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAD EDGED FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA AND EXTENDED FROM
KMCK TO KBBW TO KONL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE NEB/KS STATE LINE INTO
NW KANSAS. STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS AROUND
18C...WHICH ONLY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN OUR NORTH TONIGHT.
SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE/HIGH PLAINS MAY WORK TOWARDS OUR WESTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH STRONG CAP AND WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY...OR JUST SILENT POPS. NOSE OF LLVL JET FOCUSES TOWARDS
THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT AND COULD SEE CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AROUND OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND WILL LEAVE FCST DRY ATTM.
HEAT IS ANOTHER BIG CONCERN FOR SEVERAL UPCOMING DAYS. KANSAS
ZONES ARE FORECAST AOA THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND WILL CONVERT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY. THIS AREA HAS SEEN SEVERAL DAYS WITH
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE EXPECTED. INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE
MARGINAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH THE NAM STALLS AND THE GFS WASHES OUT. ATTM...WILL BUFFER THE
NC KS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY EDGING NORTH TO
HIGHWAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HEADLINE CHANGES
SHOULD BE A GOOD STARTING PLACE FOR WHAT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED HEAT EVENT FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BASED ON EXTENDED
FORECAST MODELS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING OR WASHING OUT THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
LESS WIND FOR OUR REGION AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA FOR
A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...OVERALL FEW NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE DAYS 3-7 PERIOD. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE BUT NONETHELESS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT TIME
FRAME...ALONG WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR A BIT MORE
INSIGHT TO THE POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS EARLY
SUMMER HEAT...PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW...AND
FOR MORE INSIGHT ON THE HEAT HEADLINES ONGOING THROUGH THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...PLEASE SEE THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE.
STARTING WITH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE
CWA WITH 20-30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
MOST AREAS SEEING ANYTHING IS QUITE LOW GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CAPPING
EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS IN THE +13-15C RANGE. THAT BEING
SAID...BOTH THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF THE EAST-WEST
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE STATE LINE...AND WITHIN A MODEST BUT
EVIDENT EXIT REGION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO
AFFECT SOME AREAS...IT COULD BE A COMBINATION OF ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD...AND STORMS POSSIBLY ROLLING EAST OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CAPPING...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF PARCELS CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
FEW THOUSAND J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF POSSIBLY
25-30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS THINKING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TOKEN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK.
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE PICTURE...WITH THE CWA
REMAINING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DOMINANT SOUTHERN
CONUS RIDGE. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC...MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
RIPPLE THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW...CAPPING TO SURFACE
OR NEAR SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH 700MB
LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO AVERAGE IN THE +13-15 TERRITORY.
ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD IS STILL
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE...WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING TOKEN SLIGHT STORM
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS NOW...AND JUST
DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE OR HEART TO PULL THEM OUT OF ANY GIVEN
PERIOD YET. TEMP WISE...MADE SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WITH MID-UPPER 90S PREVALENT IN NEB ZONES...AND
100-110 IN KS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS NO RAIN MENTION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AS THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISE THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
RIGHT BACK OVER/VERY NEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR SETUP TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE STUCK WITH THE ALLBLEND MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH TEMPS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY MAINLY UPPER 90S IN NEB
ZONES AND 100-105 IN KANSAS...BUT COULD EASILY FORESEE THESE
VALUES BEING 5+ DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ON SOME
DAYS IF THE RIDGE BECOMES AS DOMINANT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED.
FIRE WEATHER...BESIDES THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE NEXT
BEST CANDIDATE FOR POSSIBLY REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND WINDS OF 20 MPH IS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY IN KS COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH.
WITH THIS STILL BEING TWO DAYS AWAY...AND THE DETAILS STILL A BIT
UNCLEAR MAINLY REGARDING WIND SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
CLIMATE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE HISTORICAL
SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS EARLY SUMMER HEAT IS FULLY KNOWN...THIS IS
UNDOUBTEDLY ONE OF THE HOTTEST STRETCHES OF LATE JUNE-EARLY JULY
WEATHER EXPERIENCED IN SEVERAL YEARS. FOCUSING SPECIFICALLY ON
GRAND ISLAND FOR THE 10-DAY PERIOD JUNE 26-JULY 5...FORECAST HIGHS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WOULD RESULT IN A DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE DURING THIS STRETCH AROUND 98 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE PERIOD JUNE 26-JULY 5 YIELDED AN AVERAGE DAILY HIGH NEAR 98
DEGREES WAS IN 1991. THE LAST TIME A 10 DAY STRETCH AT ANY POINT
IN THE SUMMER YIELDED AN AVERAGE HIGH OF 98 DEGREES WAS BETWEEN
JULY 7-16, 1995. FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THAT ARE MORE ACCUSTOMED TO TOPPING 100 DEGREES...THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST 10-DAY STRETCH SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST
2000. AGAIN THOUGH...THESE COMPARISONS ARE ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW
WELL THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. NO
MATTER WHAT...PARTS OF THE CWA COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN A CATEGORY
D3 SEVERE DROUGHT DESIGNATION FROM THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ074>077-082>087.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
110 AM UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT
1041 PM UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
129 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE
RECORD HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE BEACHES
(LANDBREEZE) WILL NEGATE ANY MARINE INFLUENCE. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH
AND GEORGETOWN MAY GET AS COLD AS ANY OF OUR INTERIOR LOCATIONS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
1000 PM FOLLOWS...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVING
DIMINISHED TO NEARLY CALM INLAND...EXCEPT REMAINING 2 TO 4 MPH ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. A LAND BREEZE LIKELY WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY THU DAYBREAK WITH SSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND LOWS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
DEWPOINTS MIMICKING TEMPS ESPECIALLY SEVERAL HRS LEADING TO SUNRISE.
CURRENT MIN FORECAST IN LINE WITH ONLY TWEAKS UPWARD BY A DEGREE OR
2 NEEDED FOR THE BEACHES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM ITS CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. NO
POPS WITH A CLOUDLESS SKY ON TAP FOR THE ILM CWA TONIGHT. LITTLE
MOISTURE IN THE ATM COLUMN VIA NEARBY 00Z RAOBS...WITH PWS LESS THAN
3/4 OF AN INCH. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SOME SERIOUS CAPPING FROM 850MB
AND UPWARDS...WITH INSTABILITY LACKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...PERHAPS MID 90S WELL INLAND ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SUCH THAT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DUE TO MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 2 OR
THREE HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS COMBINE TO YIELD
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 WHILE MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE FRONT PRESENT BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS DESPITE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON FRIDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM ALONG THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST ABUNDANT. POPS
ARE BASICALLY 0 THURSDAY AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SIZZLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ASPHALT
MIRAGES WILL BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND AS INTENSE HEAT TAKES HOLD OF
THE AREA...AS A MAMMOTH RIDGE ALOFT BARRELS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-112 FRI AND SAT. AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR H.I. VALUES OVER 105
DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A WARNING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AS INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY...BUT THE WATCH TIME FOR NOW IS VALID
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO THE NATURAL INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. IF YOU BELIEVE IN THE ECMWF...WE COULD
HAVE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...FRIDAY 101 (1959) SATURDAY 100 (1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990) MONDAY 97 (1980).
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...FRIDAY 101 (1998) SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990) MONDAY 102 (1954).
AT THE SURFACE AN AMPLIFIED THERMAL-TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE FAR INTERIOR AND SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SW WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LARGE LAND VS SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD DRIVE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL PASS WELL E AND NE OF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT HERE...EXPECT POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE
RIP THREAT...BUT EVEN THIS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN LOCAL IMPACT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AFTER DAYBREAK AS A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER FLORIDA DOMINATES THE WEATHER. THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTH SOUTHWEST MARINE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS WITH SOME 15-18 KT GUSTS AT MYR AND CRE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR...BUT WITH EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
WIND/SEA OBSERVATIONS MATCH THE LAST FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ONLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST
WATERS FROM SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER UNTIL 3 AM
THU. LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS DIMINISHING
NICELY IN CONCERT WITH THE LATEST HOURLY HRRR MODEL DATA. EXPECT
NE-E WINDS TO DROP TO N AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THE
SFC PG RELAXING DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ITS CENTER
OVER GA...MIGRATING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE...WITH WINDS FROM THE
NW 5 TO 10 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 5 FT RANGE WILL DIMINISH
TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVE PORTION OF THE SIG SEAS WILL LOWER BUT THE S TO SE SWELL
COMPONENT FROM WHATS LEFT OF DEBBY WILL CONTINUE. DOMINANT OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WILL RUN AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND PLENTY FRESH WATER WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR BOATING AND RECREATIONAL EXCURSIONS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD 4 FEET OR LESS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GROWING SE
WAVES OF 4-5 FEET MAY BE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS AS DEBBY
PASSES WELL E OF THE COAST. EACH AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
S-SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DUE TO THE STRONG LAND VS SEA-SFC
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE SEA SPECTRUM SAT-MON WILL BE COMPRISED
OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 1-2 FT AT 4-5
SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOCAL WINDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND MAINLY ON LAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND WELL
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. PRESSURE PATTERN SAT-MON WILL FOSTER SW WINDS
10-15 KT...HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 3PM-7PM IN-SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...HDL/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
246 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
246 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY ALONG WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE IS
ALREADY PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN SHIFT SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2500-5500
J/KG RANGE. THESE CAPE VALUES COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO
55 KTS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH CIN VALUES AROUND NEGATIVE
200 J/KG. IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY. THINKING THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
ABOVE THE CAP...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ANOTHER HOT
AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THESE AREAS
FROM NOON TO 7 PM. PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL IOWA/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN
WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT....TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EDGE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 70 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH
ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
RATHER WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE 20 TO 22 C RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW...WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO LIFT NORTH
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT CONVECTION OCCURRING ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE SHOULD HOLD IT TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONGEST WAVE
LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PLAN
ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE
LOWER 90S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
246 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
28.00 MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE AS IT TRIES TO BUILD IN. THE MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOWING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
HOLD IN THE 20 TO 22 C RANGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON THE
SUMMER WARMTH PERSISTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE THE HEAT AT
TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
1105 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH KRST NEAR 09Z AND KLSE 11Z. MOISTURE POOLING
AROUND THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN SOME SUB VFR CIGS...WHICH SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SOME 2500-3000 CLOUDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
EVIDENCED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. 28.00Z NAM12 AND
LATEST RAP13 SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL STAY POOLED IN THIS
REGION...AND THAT THERE WOULD BE A PERIOD OF BKN025-035. WILL ADD
A PERIOD OF BKN035 FOR NOW. IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TO SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY. NOT SOLD ON
THIS...BUT CAN/T RULE IT OUT EITHER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO
THE TAFS HOWEVER. MVFR CIG/RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
246 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
755 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THURSDAY...NOON TO 8 PM. POOLING HIGH SFC TD
WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO LOW 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC FRONT WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST BY EARLY THU MORNING...BUT DRY AIR
LAGS WELL BEHIND IT...GRADUALLY BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER
HUMIDITIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON - EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...VERY THIN LINE OF ECHO DETECTED VIA 88-D RADAR IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI. VERY HIGH BASED AND APPEARS
PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE A LOFT TAPPING
INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST THAT LONG AFTER
SUNDOWN...AND MOST OF THE PCPN IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAY HAVE
TO ADD SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATE OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR DRY CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
1105 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH KRST NEAR 09Z AND KLSE 11Z. MOISTURE POOLING
AROUND THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN SOME SUB VFR CIGS...WHICH SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SOME 2500-3000 CLOUDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
EVIDENCED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. 28.00Z NAM12 AND
LATEST RAP13 SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL STAY POOLED IN THIS
REGION...AND THAT THERE WOULD BE A PERIOD OF BKN025-035. WILL ADD
A PERIOD OF BKN035 FOR NOW. IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TO SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY. NOT SOLD ON
THIS...BUT CAN/T RULE IT OUT EITHER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO
THE TAFS HOWEVER. MVFR CIG/RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
755 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1017 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1017 AM CDT
UPDATE FOR TODAY...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS NW PORTION OF FA AS MINOR DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOUNTERED
INCREASINGLY DRY MID LEVELS AT TO MOVED E. IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED DOWN MAX TEMPS BY 1 DEG S...AROUND 2 DEG N...AND
ABOUT 3-4 DEG ALONG N LAKESHORE. LEADING SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT LINE RUNS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO DUBUQUE AT 14Z. THE TRUE COOL
FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER BACK TO THE NW...RUNNING FROM THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY TO S OF LACROSSE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEW POINT
POOLING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LEADING WIND SHIFT AND THE ACTUAL
FRONT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THE CORE OF THE HOT AIR
BEING SUPPRESSED S TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA BY 00Z.
EXPECT THIS TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION...FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO FLOP OVER TO NE-E OFF OF THE
LAKE WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING ALONG THE FAR N
SHORE MID AFTERNOON AND FAR S SHORES LATE AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE
COOL FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO BE
POOLED. THIS AXIS TO RUN W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 18Z
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
SAT LOOP WAS MOVING TO THE FAR W END OF THE MN-IA BORDER AT 1345Z.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING E ALONG THE MN-IA
BORDER THROUGH MID DAY THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SW WI AND N CENTRAL IL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE
THE POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WHERE THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMOVES THE CAP
BASED AT AROUND 825HPA.
TRS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* WIND SHIFTS/TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORHTEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND
FORECAST...IN PARTICULAR THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING
OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE COLD FRONT.
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGED SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN IL BY AROUND
NOON. AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA WILL BECOME
RATHER WEAK...FURTHER DECREASING THE CONTRAST OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE. WITH VERY
WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE
DECREASING WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH THE CONTRAST OF NEAR 100F TEMPERATURES INLAND AND
THE MUCH COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER. AS ALWAYS...THE CONCERN WILL
MORE BE TIMING RATHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND NELY FLOW SETTING UP OVER NERN IL AND NLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER NWRN IN. AT THIS POINT...WILL TIME THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND AND PAST ORD/MDW IN THE 19-21Z TIMEFRAME.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM AIR TRANSPORT UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG CAPPING AT 7KFT. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE WEAKENING TO THE CAP AND SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE...WITH WILL NOT BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
FORCING. SO...WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NON-
ZERO...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST AND MONITOR THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...FROM WSW
THIS MORNING TO NE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS ASSOCD WITH
FROPA AND LAKE BREEZE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA EARLY.
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OF
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
903 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* WIND SHIFTS/TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORHTEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND
FORECAST...IN PARTICULAR THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING
OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE COLD FRONT.
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGED SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN IL BY AROUND
NOON. AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA WILL BECOME
RATHER WEAK...FURTHER DECREASING THE CONTRAST OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE. WITH VERY
WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE
DECREASING WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH THE CONTRAST OF NEAR 100F TEMPERATURES INLAND AND
THE MUCH COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER. AS ALWAYS...THE CONCERN WILL
MORE BE TIMING RATHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND NELY FLOW SETTING UP OVER NERN IL AND NLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER NWRN IN. AT THIS POINT...WILL TIME THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND AND PAST ORD/MDW IN THE 19-21Z TIMEFRAME.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM AIR TRANSPORT UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG CAPPING AT 7KFT. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE WEAKENING TO THE CAP AND SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE...WITH WILL NOT BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
FORCING. SO...WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NON-
ZERO...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST AND MONITOR THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...FROM WSW
THIS MORNING TO NE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS ASSOCD WITH
FROPA AND LAKE BREEZE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA EARLY.
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OF
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
612 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* FROPA TIMING THIS AFTERNOON AND PRECIP CHANCES ALONG FRONT.
* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND
FORECAST...IN PARTICULAR THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING
OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE COLD FRONT.
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGED SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN IL BY AROUND
NOON. AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA WILL BECOME
RATHER WEAK...FURTHER DECREASING THE CONTRAST OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE. WITH VERY
WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE
DECREASING WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH THE CONTRAST OF NEAR 100F TEMPERATURES INLAND AND
THE MUCH COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER. AS ALWAYS...THE CONCERN WILL
MORE BE TIMING RATHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND NELY FLOW SETTING UP OVER NERN IL AND NLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER NWRN IN. AT THIS POINT...WILL TIME THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND AND PAST ORD/MDW IN THE 19-21Z TIMEFRAME.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM AIR TRANSPORT UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG CAPPING AT 7KFT. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE WEAKENING TO THE CAP AND SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE...WITH WILL NOT BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
FORCING. SO...WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NON-
ZERO...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST AND MONITOR THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KREIN
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA EARLY.
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OF
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...NOON
THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
537 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* FROPA TIMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIP CHANCES ALONG FRONT.
* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND
FORECAST...IN PARTICULAR THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING
OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE COLD FRONT.
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGED SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN IL BY AROUND
NOON. AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA WILL BECOME
RATHER WEAK...FURTHER DECREASING THE CONTRAST OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE. WITH VERY
WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE
DECREASING WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH THE CONTRAST OF NEAR 100F TEMPERATURES INLAND AND
THE MUCH COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER. AS ALWAYS...THE CONCERN WILL
MORE BE TIMING RATHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND NELY FLOW SETTING UP OVER NERN IL AND NLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER NWRN IN. AT THIS POINT...WILL TIME THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND AND PAST ORD/MDW IN THE 19-21Z TIMEFRAME.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM AIR TRANSPORT UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG CAPPING AT 7KFT. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE WEAKENING TO THE CAP AND SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE...WITH WILL NOT BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
FORCING. SO...WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NON-
ZERO...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST AND MONITOR THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA TUESDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OF
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...NOON
THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1023 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.UPDATE...
AT 15Z THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE NORTH SUBURBS OF KMKE...TO
KEFT...TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF KCID...TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
KDSM. DEW POINTS ARE POOLING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A FEW MID 70S NOW BEING REPORTED.
THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
ACHIEVING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH PARTS
OF THE CWFA MAY NOT OCCUR. INCOMING OBSERVATIONS FOR 15Z INDICATE
A FEW LOCATIONS EITHER AT OR VERY NEAR 100 FOR THE HEAT INDEX
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE
IS NO SUCH THING AS A CAP. THE QUESTION NOW IS WHAT WILL OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NONLINEAR PROCESSES WILL BE DOMINATING THE
SENSIBLE WX. THE ONE THING THAT IS KNOWN IS THAT ANY CONVECTION
THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE
BASED.
USING THE RAP AS A TREND...THE STRONG VORT MAX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 700MB OMEGAS SHOW STRONG
LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING ACCAS
FROM KSUX BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ARRIVES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THE LEVEL OF THE LFC
WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 700MB.
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCHC TO POSSIBLY LOW CHC POPS
OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AREA IN QUESTION IS ROUGHLY WHERE
THE ACCAS CURRENTLY IS ON SATELLITE OVER THE NORTH THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY KMKE...KEFT...KCID...KDSM AT
15Z/28. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KMLI. VFR WX IS EXPECTED AT KCID/KMLI/KBRL THROUGH 00Z/29
AND LIKELY 06Z/29. AT KDBQ...VFR WX IS EXPECTED BUT THERE WILL BE
A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH OR VCTS WITH VIRGA. CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE
4KFT OR HIGHER. IF CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT KDBQ BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE SEEN. IF PRECIPITATION HAS TROUBLE REACHING THE
GROUND THEN THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A DRY MICROBURST AT
KDBQ. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1042 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S
TODAY...THEN REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL BE EXPANDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE BASING THIS ON RECORD/NEAR RECORD EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES AND A LOT OF ONGOING OUTDOOR EVENTS. WILL TRY TO
HAVE THE NPW PRODUCT OUT BY 11 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH 100 BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING IN.
ELSEWHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 90S. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS REACHED
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN A BIT OF A COOLING WESTERLY WIND
WILL COME IN FROM THE LAKE...AND TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE IN THE
FORM OF CONVECTION. HRRR AND NSSL BOTH SUGGEST A FAIRLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A STABILIZING EFFECT
FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER WE SHOULD BE SITTING ON 2000-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME...BUT IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STORMS COULD
DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY...AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...FROM 25-30 KTS MID DAY TO
AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO HELP WITH MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING POPPING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO WILL
CARRY 20 POPS THERE INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPS AROUND 90 AGAIN.
A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH. TIMING APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY AND MAX INSTABILITY. THEREFORE TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE ARE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION OF SIGNIFICANCE (GENERAL WETTING OVER A 1/2 INCH) IS
VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND THEN ACTUALLY.
THE LARGE SCALE MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTEN AND THIS
LEADS TO SOME GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. MY PROBLEM
WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH IS TIMING SHORTWAVES OVER THE CREST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET (WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA). BEING BETWEEN THE LARGE AND BUILDING
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS (LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR 100 W) AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH (LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 65 W)
BRINGS EVERY SHORTWAVE THAT TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL THEN RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH EACH OF
THESE. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS FOR THE MOST PART NORTH AND EAST
OF HERE AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GULF INFLOW INTO ANY OF THESE
SHORTWAVES EVEN SO... I DO NOT SEE ANY OF THESE EVENTS AS BEGINNING
WET ENOUGH HELP OUR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
WHAT IS SEE HAPPENING AT UPPER LEVELS IS A LARGE STORM EAST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS MORNING MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. THAT BUILDS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHICH IS
WHY SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN END UP BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A GENERAL PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT HOW
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN GETS MOST OF OUR BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS). MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE... THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.... KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR NORTH AND EAST OF HERE AND THE
VERY HOT AIR SOUTH AND WEST OF HERE.
THE GENERIC FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20
PCT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 85 TO 90 AND LOWS 60 TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE RISK
IS RATHER LOW SO I PUT VCTS FOR NOW MOSTLY FROM 18Z TO 00Z FOR THE
WESTERN TAFS AND 21Z TO 03Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS COULD
BE GUSTY AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RATHER QUIET ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS RESULTING IN LOW WAVE ACTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY STORMS GOING TODAY THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WE WILL BE SITTING ON NEARLY 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG
QUICKLY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40 KTS. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE
OF THE PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
749 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S
TODAY...THEN REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH 100 BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING IN.
ELSEWHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 90S. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS REACHED
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN A BIT OF A COOLING WESTERLY WIND
WILL COME IN FROM THE LAKE...AND TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE IN THE
FORM OF CONVECTION. HRRR AND NSSL BOTH SUGGEST A FAIRLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A STABILIZING EFFECT
FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER WE SHOULD BE SITTING ON 2000-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME...BUT IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STORMS COULD
DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY...AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...FROM 25-30 KTS MID DAY TO
AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO HELP WITH MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING POPPING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO WILL
CARRY 20 POPS THERE INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPS AROUND 90 AGAIN.
A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH. TIMING APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY AND MAX INSTABILITY. THEREFORE TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE ARE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION OF SIGNIFICANCE (GENERAL WETTING OVER A 1/2 INCH) IS
VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND THEN ACTUALLY.
THE LARGE SCALE MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTEN AND THIS
LEADS TO SOME GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. MY PROBLEM
WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH IS TIMING SHORTWAVES OVER THE CREST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET (WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA). BEING BETWEEN THE LARGE AND BUILDING
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS (LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR 100 W) AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH (LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 65 W)
BRINGS EVERY SHORTWAVE THAT TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL THEN RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH EACH OF
THESE. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS FOR THE MOST PART NORTH AND EAST
OF HERE AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GULF INFLOW INTO ANY OF THESE
SHORTWAVES EVEN SO... I DO NOT SEE ANY OF THESE EVENTS AS BEGINNING
WET ENOUGH HELP OUR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
WHAT IS SEE HAPPENING AT UPPER LEVELS IS A LARGE STORM EAST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS MORNING MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. THAT BUILDS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHICH IS
WHY SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN END UP BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A GENERAL PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT HOW
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN GETS MOST OF OUR BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS). MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE... THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.... KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR NORTH AND EAST OF HERE AND THE
VERY HOT AIR SOUTH AND WEST OF HERE.
THE GENERIC FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20
PCT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 85 TO 90 AND LOWS 60 TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE RISK
IS RATHER LOW SO I PUT VCTS FOR NOW MOSTLY FROM 18Z TO 00Z FOR THE
WESTERN TAFS AND 21Z TO 03Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS COULD
BE GUSTY AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RATHER QUIET ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS RESULTING IN LOW WAVE ACTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY STORMS GOING TODAY THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WE WILL BE SITTING ON NEARLY 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG
QUICKLY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40 KTS. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE
OF THE PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ072>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1017 AM CDT
UPDATE FOR TODAY...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS NW PORTION OF FA AS MINOR DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOUNTERED
INCREASINGLY DRY MID LEVELS AT TO MOVED E. IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED DOWN MAX TEMPS BY 1 DEG S...AROUND 2 DEG N...AND
ABOUT 3-4 DEG ALONG N LAKESHORE. LEADING SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT LINE RUNS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO DUBUQUE AT 14Z. THE TRUE COOL
FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER BACK TO THE NW...RUNNING FROM THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY TO S OF LACROSSE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEW POINT
POOLING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LEADING WIND SHIFT AND THE ACTUAL
FRONT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THE CORE OF THE HOT AIR
BEING SUPPRESSED S TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA BY 00Z.
EXPECT THIS TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION...FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO FLOP OVER TO NE-E OFF OF THE
LAKE WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING ALONG THE FAR N
SHORE MID AFTERNOON AND FAR S SHORES LATE AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE
COOL FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO BE
POOLED. THIS AXIS TO RUN W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 18Z
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
SAT LOOP WAS MOVING TO THE FAR W END OF THE MN-IA BORDER AT 1345Z.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING E ALONG THE MN-IA
BORDER THROUGH MID DAY THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SW WI AND N CENTRAL IL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE
THE POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WHERE THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMOVES THE CAP
BASED AT AROUND 825HPA.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY.
* POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN
22-00Z ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND TAPERING SOME IN THE FRONTAL
TROUGH. WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION
WITH BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA MAY ALLOW CAPPING INVERSION TO ERODE LEADING TO DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO FALL WITHIN
21-00Z TIMEFRAME OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP THOUGH...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MEANING THAT ALL AREAS WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED. GIVEN THE INTENSE INSTABILITY AND 40-50KT SHEAR VALUES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND BECOMING VARIABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN EARLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT
WINDS TO TREND TO SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES AWAY...EXCEPT IN CHICAGO AREA WHERE A LAKE BREEZE MAY
KEEP WINDS EASTERLY. BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...TSRA
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WITH BEST WINDOW BETWEEN 22-00Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA EARLY.
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
246 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT MOVING S DOWN FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI AT MID AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SOUTHERN IN FRI. A MODERATE NW
BREEZE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE
SW DURING FRI AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS SE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN ONTARIO MON AND MON
NIGHT THEN E ACROSS ONTARIO TUE AND TUE NIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
247 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1017 AM CDT
UPDATE FOR TODAY...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS NW PORTION OF FA AS MINOR DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOUNTERED
INCREASINGLY DRY MID LEVELS AT TO MOVED E. IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED DOWN MAX TEMPS BY 1 DEG S...AROUND 2 DEG N...AND
ABOUT 3-4 DEG ALONG N LAKESHORE. LEADING SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT LINE RUNS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO DUBUQUE AT 14Z. THE TRUE COOL
FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER BACK TO THE NW...RUNNING FROM THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY TO S OF LACROSSE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEW POINT
POOLING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LEADING WIND SHIFT AND THE ACTUAL
FRONT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THE CORE OF THE HOT AIR
BEING SUPPRESSED S TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA BY 00Z.
EXPECT THIS TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION...FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO FLOP OVER TO NE-E OFF OF THE
LAKE WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING ALONG THE FAR N
SHORE MID AFTERNOON AND FAR S SHORES LATE AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE
COOL FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO BE
POOLED. THIS AXIS TO RUN W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 18Z
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
SAT LOOP WAS MOVING TO THE FAR W END OF THE MN-IA BORDER AT 1345Z.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING E ALONG THE MN-IA
BORDER THROUGH MID DAY THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SW WI AND N CENTRAL IL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE
THE POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WHERE THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMOVES THE CAP
BASED AT AROUND 825HPA.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN
21-00Z ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND TAPERING SOME IN THE FRONTAL
TROUGH. WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION
WITH BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA MAY ALLOW CAPPING INVERSION TO ERODE LEADING TO DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO FALL WITHIN
21-00Z TIMEFRAME OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP THOUGH...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MEANING THAT ALL AREAS WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED. GIVEN THE INTENSE INSTABILITY AND 40-50KT SHEAR VALUES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND BECOMING VARIABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN EARLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT
WINDS TO TREND TO SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES AWAY...EXCEPT IN CHICAGO AREA WHERE A LAKE BREEZE MAY
KEEP WINDS EASTERLY. BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...TSRA
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WITH BEST WINDOW BETWEEN 21-00Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA EARLY.
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
246 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT MOVING S DOWN FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI AT MID AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SOUTHERN IN FRI. A MODERATE NW
BREEZE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE
SW DURING FRI AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS SE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN ONTARIO MON AND MON
NIGHT THEN E ACROSS ONTARIO TUE AND TUE NIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1017 AM CDT
UPDATE FOR TODAY...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS NW PORTION OF FA AS MINOR DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOUNTERED
INCREASINGLY DRY MID LEVELS AT TO MOVED E. IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED DOWN MAX TEMPS BY 1 DEG S...AROUND 2 DEG N...AND
ABOUT 3-4 DEG ALONG N LAKESHORE. LEADING SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT LINE RUNS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO DUBUQUE AT 14Z. THE TRUE COOL
FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER BACK TO THE NW...RUNNING FROM THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY TO S OF LACROSSE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEW POINT
POOLING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LEADING WIND SHIFT AND THE ACTUAL
FRONT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THE CORE OF THE HOT AIR
BEING SUPPRESSED S TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA BY 00Z.
EXPECT THIS TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION...FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO FLOP OVER TO NE-E OFF OF THE
LAKE WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING ALONG THE FAR N
SHORE MID AFTERNOON AND FAR S SHORES LATE AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE
COOL FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO BE
POOLED. THIS AXIS TO RUN W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 18Z
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
SAT LOOP WAS MOVING TO THE FAR W END OF THE MN-IA BORDER AT 1345Z.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING E ALONG THE MN-IA
BORDER THROUGH MID DAY THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SW WI AND N CENTRAL IL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE
THE POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WHERE THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMOVES THE CAP
BASED AT AROUND 825HPA.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN
21-00Z ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND TAPERING SOME IN THE FRONTAL
TROUGH. WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION
WITH BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA MAY ALLOW CAPPING INVERSION TO ERODE LEADING TO DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO FALL WITHIN
21-00Z TIMEFRAME OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP THOUGH...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MEANING THAT ALL AREAS WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED. GIVEN THE INTENSE INSTABILITY AND 40-50KT SHEAR VALUES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND BECOMING VARIABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN EARLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT
WINDS TO TREND TO SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES AWAY...EXCEPT IN CHICAGO AREA WHERE A LAKE BREEZE MAY
KEEP WINDS EASTERLY. BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...TSRA
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WITH BEST WINDOW BETWEEN 21-00Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA EARLY.
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OF
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1105 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1017 AM CDT
UPDATE FOR TODAY...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS NW PORTION OF FA AS MINOR DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOUNTERED
INCREASINGLY DRY MID LEVELS AT TO MOVED E. IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED DOWN MAX TEMPS BY 1 DEG S...AROUND 2 DEG N...AND
ABOUT 3-4 DEG ALONG N LAKESHORE. LEADING SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT LINE RUNS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO DUBUQUE AT 14Z. THE TRUE COOL
FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER BACK TO THE NW...RUNNING FROM THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY TO S OF LACROSSE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEW POINT
POOLING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LEADING WIND SHIFT AND THE ACTUAL
FRONT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THE CORE OF THE HOT AIR
BEING SUPPRESSED S TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA BY 00Z.
EXPECT THIS TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION...FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO FLOP OVER TO NE-E OFF OF THE
LAKE WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING ALONG THE FAR N
SHORE MID AFTERNOON AND FAR S SHORES LATE AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE
COOL FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO BE
POOLED. THIS AXIS TO RUN W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 18Z
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
SAT LOOP WAS MOVING TO THE FAR W END OF THE MN-IA BORDER AT 1345Z.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING E ALONG THE MN-IA
BORDER THROUGH MID DAY THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SW WI AND N CENTRAL IL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE
THE POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WHERE THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMOVES THE CAP
BASED AT AROUND 825HPA.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
527 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AREA OF ACCAS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN REGION FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SLATER IA PROFILER PLOT INDICATES WINDS
IN THE 0.5-3.0 KM LAYER HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPING WITHIN
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS. ASOS/AWOS SITES
ACROSS EASTERN IA REPORTING CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE
9000-15000 FT RANGE...AND CEDAR RAPIDS RECENTLY REPORTED TSRA WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 11000 FT!
09Z RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 850-700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO INDICATING DECREASING CONVECTIVE
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THAT TIME. 06Z
WRF-NAM ISENTROPIC PROGS...ON THE 325K SURFACE...ALSO INDICATES
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IA. THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BASICALLY NORTH OF A STERLING-BELVIDERE LINE THROUGH 16Z OR SO...
AND WILL HOPE THAT DISSIPATION TREND IN GUIDANCE OCCURS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT BUT OVERALL
LOW PROBABILITIES OF PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WHICH SAGS ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z RAOB DATA. OVERNIGHT GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO HOWEVER...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING SQUASHED SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OF +30-35 C TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL ALSO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND
CENTRAL IL/IND AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT/S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE HOT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...TO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CHICAGO MAY
OFFICIALLY HIT 100...THOUGH COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEHIND FROPA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT THE LAKE SHORE WHILE AREAS
FARTHER WEST/SOUTH CONTINUE TO BAKE AT NEARLY 100 DEGREES. SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN IL/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE ARE LIKELY OVER-FORECAST...AFTERNOON DEWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH THE AIR
TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS YIELDS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE...SUPPORTING NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY.
COULD BE A LITTLE IFFY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AS NOTED
ABOVE...THOUGH HAVE NO PLANS TO PULL HEADLINE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH/EXCEED 100 NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FROPA/ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY APPROACH CHICAGO RECORD HIGH OF 101
DEGREES...THOUGH ROCKFORDS 103 IS PROBABLY SAFE TODAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...FRONT SAGS ACROSS CWA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITHING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES ARE NOTED LINED UP
INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INITIALLY WHICH ONLY PARTIALLY ERODES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE DOES EXIST IF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR COMBINED FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THE
INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO RESULTS IN 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THE THREAT EXISTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OF COURSE...THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL ANYTHING BE ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP! ODDS ARE
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A 20 PERCENT ISOLATED TS FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT ONE
DEVELOPS AND CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM APPROXIMATELY THE IA/MO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IL AND THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...AND REMAINS THERE MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WHERE BETTER BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EXIST. STORMS WOULD THE LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAY AFFECT THE WFO LOT AREA AT TIMES IN
WEAKENING PHASES. HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS...THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN BETWEEN THESE LITTLE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO COOL TEMPS INTO THE 80S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
908 PM CDT
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 100 DEGREES FOR CHICAGO-OHARE AND 99 DEGREES
FOR ROCKFORD ON THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 28TH:
CHICAGO: 101/1971
ROCKFORD:103/1934
ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 104...6/20/1988.
ROCKFORD: 106...6/1/1934.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:
CHICAGO: 105...7/24/1934
ROCKFORD: 112...7/14/1936
MDB/JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN
21-00Z ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND
FORECAST...IN PARTICULAR THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING
OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE COLD FRONT.
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGED SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN IL BY AROUND
NOON. AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA WILL BECOME
RATHER WEAK...FURTHER DECREASING THE CONTRAST OF TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE. WITH VERY
WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE
DECREASING WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH THE CONTRAST OF NEAR 100F TEMPERATURES INLAND AND
THE MUCH COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER. AS ALWAYS...THE CONCERN WILL
MORE BE TIMING RATHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND NELY FLOW SETTING UP OVER NERN IL AND NLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER NWRN IN. AT THIS POINT...WILL TIME THE LAKE BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND AND PAST ORD/MDW IN THE 19-21Z TIMEFRAME.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM AIR TRANSPORT UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG CAPPING AT 7KFT. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE WEAKENING TO THE CAP AND SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE...WITH WILL NOT BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
FORCING. SO...WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NON-
ZERO...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST AND MONITOR THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON...TSRA
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WITH BEST WINDOW BETWEEN 21-00Z. BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA EARLY.
MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OF
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONT TO FAVOR CAUTIONARY APPROACH WRT
POTNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TERM FOR CWA. DESPITE INCSRG
INSTABILITY THIS AFT/EVE AS SFC DPS BEGIN TO POOL TO NEAR 70F ACRS
NWRN CWA THIS AFTN...FAVORED INITIATION REGIONS EXIST BOTH
DOWN/UPSTREAM. STILL MODELS SPCLY GFS CONTS TO FAIL TO CAPTURE
SIGNIFICANCE OF DRY GROUND/D3 DROUGHT CONDS THAT HAVE EMERGED ACRS
NRN IN AND CONT TO SHAVE SVRL DEGREES DOWNWARD. THIS AM NOTED
SHORTWAVE/700H JETLET GENERATED XTRMLY HIGH ELEVATED CONVECTION
INVOF KCID...THIS FEATURE TO PUSH INTO NWRN OH THIS EVE WITH CAP
SLOWLY DERIDED PER SPC RAP IN TANDEM WITH CONCEPTUAL MODEL
EXPECTATIONS...THOUGH EAST OF CWA. WELL WEST OF CWA WITHIN DCPVA
ZONE AMID OVERLAP ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER/LESS INHIBITED
INSTABILITY AXIS FM NWRN IL WWD INTO SERN NE WITH MLCAPE 4000-5000
J/KG AND SRN PERIPHERY OF HIR DEEP LYR /0-6KM/ SHEAR OF 40-55KTS TO
LKLY SUPPORT MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS PLAINS INTO INTO IA/MO
NEAR/AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY 925-850MB JET STRENGTHENS/NOSES ACRS CNTL
KS. ADDNL/CONTD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT ACRS IA/MO THROUGH DAYBREAK AS
ERN PERIPHERY OF LLJ VEERS. LACK OF ULVL JET SUPPORT ACRS CWA
FURTHER POINTS TO LIKEN DRY BEGETS DRY. FLATTENED RIDGE TO ALLOW
SHALLOW SFC FNTL ZONE TO SLIDE SEWD QUIETLY THROUGH CWA...WITH ZONE
OF RICH 0-0.5KM THETA-E LAID OUT FM NRN IL INTO CNTL IN ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVE CONVECTION INITIATION RELEGATED TO
ONLY SWRN CWA INVOF BNDRY WITH INCRSD UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE AS NRN
PLAINS UPR JETLET MOVES INTO SERN LWR MI/LWR GRTLKS COINCIDENT
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY /
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERTOP A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
POLAR JET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
STILL ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 90S EACH DAY AS 850 HPA TEMPS
GENERALLY STAY AOA 20C...WITH MID LVL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION BEING THE ONLY HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPS. AT THE SURFACE A
DIFFUSE/SHALLOW QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FCST TO HANG AROUND THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WWD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING NORTH OF THE AREA OR WASHING OUT BY MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR IOWA AS SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE (CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/INDUCED) SHORTWAVES CREST THE
REBUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. THESE POTENTIAL MCS COMPLEXES
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION AS THEY OUTRUN BETTER LOW
LVL FORCING (LLJ) AND DRY OUT OVER POORLY MODELED DRY LOW LEVELS
(MODELS OVERDOING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOIL MOISTURE WITH CLIMO BIAS AND
THEREFORE INSTABILITY/SFC DEWPOINTS/ETC). WITH THIS CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME AS THINK THE
BEST CASE SCENARIO IS FOR A MCV TO BRING HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE/NO DROUGHT RELIEF. ALSO EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
RE-DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG ANY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. AS A RESULT OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE (MAINLY NO WX MENTION) AS WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THIS PERIOD TO
BE DRY IN THIS ONGOING D1-D3 DROUGHT. THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL ROCKIES
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK WITH
HEIGHT RISES/WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY. TEMPS
COULD MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 100F BY DAYS 6/7.
&&
.AVIATION... /18 UTC TAFS/
DIFFICULT FCST THIS ITERATION...MAINTAIN PRIMARILY VFR TAFS WITH
POINT CONVECTIVE CHCS REMAINING BLO THRESHOLD FOR INCLUSION AS MLCIN
RMNS STOIC ACRS NRN IN THIS AFTN. HEIGHTENED CHCS FOR INITIATION
EXIST BOTH UP/DOWNSTREAM OF RGN LATER THIS EVENING...POTNLY
PROVIDING DRY FROPA LATER TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE OF NEAR SFC
HYGROSCOPIC POLLUTANTS AND SFC DP POOLING TO NEAR 70 MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR SUNRISE BR DVLPMNT. ZONE OF HIR SFC BASED INSTABILITY
THEREAFTER RELEGATED FM ERN IA INTO CNTL IN MIDDAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
AFTN...TAKING FOCUS AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>007.
RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ003.
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.
RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016-024-025.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1226 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WX SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/29 WITH HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDES POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z/29. COLD FRONT RUNS FROM ABOUT KMKE TO
KDSM. LOW CLOUDS ARND 2KFT AGL ARE DVLPG RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT MAY BRIEFLY CREATE AN MVFR CIG. POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR
VCSH/VCTS AT KDBQ WITH VIRGA BUT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS
DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. AFT 06Z/29 THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY MIXED IN
SOLUTIONS. A TSRA COMPLEX MAY DVLP IN WESTERN IOWA AND MOVE EAST.
THIS SCENARIO WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 18Z TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012/
UPDATE...
AT 15Z THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE NORTH SUBURBS OF KMKE...TO
KEFT...TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF KCID...TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
KDSM. DEW POINTS ARE POOLING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A FEW MID 70S NOW BEING REPORTED.
THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
ACHIEVING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH PARTS
OF THE CWFA MAY NOT OCCUR. INCOMING OBSERVATIONS FOR 15Z INDICATE
A FEW LOCATIONS EITHER AT OR VERY NEAR 100 FOR THE HEAT INDEX
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE
IS NO SUCH THING AS A CAP. THE QUESTION NOW IS WHAT WILL OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NONLINEAR PROCESSES WILL BE DOMINATING THE
SENSIBLE WX. THE ONE THING THAT IS KNOWN IS THAT ANY CONVECTION
THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE
BASED.
USING THE RAP AS A TREND...THE STRONG VORT MAX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 700MB OMEGAS SHOW STRONG
LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING ACCAS
FROM KSUX BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ARRIVES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THE LEVEL OF THE LFC
WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 700MB.
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCHC TO POSSIBLY LOW CHC POPS
OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AREA IN QUESTION IS ROUGHLY WHERE
THE ACCAS CURRENTLY IS ON SATELLITE OVER THE NORTH THIRD OF THE
CWFA. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
257 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
AT 12Z THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THE CENTER OF THE 500MB HIGH THIS
MORNING WAS LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAD WEEKEND AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BASED ON 500MB
THERMAL TROUGH AND WATER VAPOR LOOP. AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. WARM
16C 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 16 TO 17C EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 700MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C WERE
OBSERVED AT GREEN BAY WISCONSIN, ALPENA MICHIGAN, AND DETROIT
MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF THE MID TO UPPER 20S STRETCHED
FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO IOWA. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AT 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY DIFFERS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE NAM, RAP,
AND HRRR BUT ALL MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE TODAY. GIVEN THIS
BOUNDARY LOCATION AS OF 19Z AND SOME HINTS OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO AHEAD AND
INSERT A MENTION OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. GIVEN THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY.
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS MIXED LAYER HEIGHT AND 700MB TEMPERATURES AT
00Z SATURDAY PLUS A SUPER SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
HIGHS OF 105 TO 108 WERE STILL ON TRACK. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL GIVE RISE TO
FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME AM LEANING
TOWARDS ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF 183 BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. A FEW HIGH BASED AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. INSTABILITY HOWEVER
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IF A FEW STORMS DO
DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND A LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BLENDED
THE FORECAST TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRY AND HOT.
THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SUNDAY AS 850-700 HPA TEMPERATURES
COOL SLIGHTLY AS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE
...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MAXES
IN THE 99-102 DEG F RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 70S DEG F. WITH SUCH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL MIXED AND DRY ATMOSPHERE EACH DAY SO EVEN IF A
STORM WOULD TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE CONFINED ABOVE THE 12000
FT LEVEL LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS WILL BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 105 75 105 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 71 106 73 103 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 69 104 73 103 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 71 106 74 103 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 74 107 75 105 / 10 10 10 10
P28 74 107 76 105 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
AT 12Z THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THE CENTER OF THE 500MB HIGH THIS
MORNING WAS LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAD WEEKEND AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BASED ON 500MB
THERMAL TROUGH AND WATER VAPOR LOOP. AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. WARM
16C 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 16 TO 17C EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 700MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C WERE
OBSERVED AT GREEN BAY WISCONSIN, ALPENA MICHIGAN, AND DETROIT
MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF THE MID TO UPPER 20S STRETCHED
FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO IOWA. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AT 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY DIFFERS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE NAM, RAP,
AND HRRR BUT ALL MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE TODAY. GIVEN THIS
BOUNDARY LOCATION AS OF 19Z AND SOME HINTS OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO AHEAD AND
INSERT A MENTION OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. GIVEN THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY.
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS MIXED LAYER HEIGHT AND 700MB TEMPERATURES AT
00Z SATURDAY PLUS A SUPER SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
HIGHS OF 105 TO 108 WERE STILL ON TRACK. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL GIVE RISE TO
FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME AM LEANING
TOWARDS ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF 183 BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. A FEW HIGH BASED AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. INSTABILITY HOWEVER
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IF A FEW STORMS DO
DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND A LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
THE HOT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
ON WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SUPPORT
EXISTS IN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS OUTPUT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO OCCUR A FEW DEGREES LOWER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF VERY HOT DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE MOISTURE AREAL
DISTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. DEW POINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS, AS NO SYNOPTIC
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO ALTER THE SURFACE PATTERN. AS A RESULT, IT IS
STILL PLAUSIBLE FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER
ALONG A HAYS TO COLDWATER LINE AND EASTWARD. THE INTENSE RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED ACROSS KANSAS PROVIDING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
RECENTLY DOES APPEAR TO BECOME FLATTENED BY THE MODELS OVER THE
COMING DAYS, BEGINNING AROUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH NOTED BY THE 594-596 DM ISOHYPSE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTWARD BY THAT TIME. THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A VERY WEAK/COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AS WELL. SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WOULD PROBABLY
BE VERY HIGH BASED, WITH PRIMARILY A GUSTY WIND THREAT OR POSSIBLE
HEAT BURSTS FRIDAY EVENING. THE NAM DOES PRODUCE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRYLINE FEATURE AT THIS TIME FROM AROUND DODGE
CITY TOWARD LIBERAL AND ELKHART FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH OTHER MODELS
DON`T SEEM TO SUPPORT. IT IS MOST PLAUSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING, AND LIKELY
LIMITED TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, PROBABLY ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A HAYS
TO ELKHART LINE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO REMAIN VERY WARM TO
HOT, BUT BECOMING LESS HOT TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
FAIRLY BROAD OR RELATIVELY FLAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM
INDICATES A REPEAT OF POTENTIAL HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AND/OR SATURDAY EVENING, BUT THIS DOESN`T SEEM AS LIKELY
WITHOUT SOME SORT OF UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 588-590 DM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING PATTERN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH AROUND 100
DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MILD OVERNIGHTS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE CONFINED ABOVE THE 12000
FT LEVEL LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS WILL BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 106 74 105 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 72 107 73 103 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 69 105 72 103 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 71 107 73 103 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 75 108 74 104 / 10 10 20 10
P28 75 108 75 105 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
119 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S
TODAY...THEN REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL BE EXPANDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE BASING THIS ON RECORD/NEAR RECORD EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES AND A LOT OF ONGOING OUTDOOR EVENTS. WILL TRY TO
HAVE THE NPW PRODUCT OUT BY 11 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH 100 BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING IN.
ELSEWHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 90S. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS REACHED
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN A BIT OF A COOLING WESTERLY WIND
WILL COME IN FROM THE LAKE...AND TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE IN THE
FORM OF CONVECTION. HRRR AND NSSL BOTH SUGGEST A FAIRLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A STABILIZING EFFECT
FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER WE SHOULD BE SITTING ON 2000-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME...BUT IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STORMS COULD
DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY...AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...FROM 25-30 KTS MID DAY TO
AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO HELP WITH MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING POPPING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO WILL
CARRY 20 POPS THERE INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPS AROUND 90 AGAIN.
A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH. TIMING APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY AND MAX INSTABILITY. THEREFORE TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE ARE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION OF SIGNIFICANCE (GENERAL WETTING OVER A 1/2 INCH) IS
VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND THEN ACTUALLY.
THE LARGE SCALE MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTEN AND THIS
LEADS TO SOME GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. MY PROBLEM
WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH IS TIMING SHORTWAVES OVER THE CREST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET (WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA). BEING BETWEEN THE LARGE AND BUILDING
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS (LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR 100 W) AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH (LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 65 W)
BRINGS EVERY SHORTWAVE THAT TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL THEN RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH EACH OF
THESE. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS FOR THE MOST PART NORTH AND EAST
OF HERE AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GULF INFLOW INTO ANY OF THESE
SHORTWAVES EVEN SO... I DO NOT SEE ANY OF THESE EVENTS AS BEGINNING
WET ENOUGH HELP OUR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
WHAT IS SEE HAPPENING AT UPPER LEVELS IS A LARGE STORM EAST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS MORNING MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. THAT BUILDS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHICH IS
WHY SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN END UP BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A GENERAL PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT HOW
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN GETS MOST OF OUR BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS). MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE... THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.... KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR NORTH AND EAST OF HERE AND THE
VERY HOT AIR SOUTH AND WEST OF HERE.
THE GENERIC FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20
PCT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 85 TO 90 AND LOWS 60 TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK IS
LOW AND COVERAGE WOULD BE SMALL... SO LEFT VCTS AND CB WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS... EXCEPT NEAR ANY
STORMS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RATHER QUIET ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS RESULTING IN LOW WAVE ACTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY STORMS GOING TODAY THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WE WILL BE SITTING ON NEARLY 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG
QUICKLY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40 KTS. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE
OF THE PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
108 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S
TODAY...THEN REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE...WITH A SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS COMBINED WITH GREATER
THAN EXPECTED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 IN SPOTS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB TODAY INTO THE MID 60S F
WITH UPPER 60S UPSTREAM AROUND CHICAGO AND LOW 70S IN PARTS OF
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MDW ACARS SOUNDINGS AT 1530/1630Z SHOW A VERY
IMPRESSIVE CAP /30 DEGREES C AT 850 MB/ ALSO IS UPSTREAM. THIS
WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME...EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER POT VORT MAX
MOVING EAST INTO WI AT THIS TIME HAS RESULTED IN VERY MINOR
EROSION OF THE CAP BETWEEN 1530 AND 1630Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE
TO THIS CAP. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM WEAK
CONVECTION OVER WI COULD INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WINDS DUE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL BE EXPANDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE BASING THIS ON RECORD/NEAR RECORD EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES AND A LOT OF ONGOING OUTDOOR EVENTS. WILL TRY TO
HAVE THE NPW PRODUCT OUT BY 11 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH 100 BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING IN.
ELSEWHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 90S. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS REACHED
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN A BIT OF A COOLING WESTERLY WIND
WILL COME IN FROM THE LAKE...AND TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE IN THE
FORM OF CONVECTION. HRRR AND NSSL BOTH SUGGEST A FAIRLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A STABILIZING EFFECT
FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER WE SHOULD BE SITTING ON 2000-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CAPPING TO OVERCOME...BUT IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...STORMS COULD
DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY...AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...FROM 25-30 KTS MID DAY TO
AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO HELP WITH MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING POPPING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO WILL
CARRY 20 POPS THERE INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPS AROUND 90 AGAIN.
A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH. TIMING APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY AND MAX INSTABILITY. THEREFORE TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE ARE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION OF SIGNIFICANCE (GENERAL WETTING OVER A 1/2 INCH) IS
VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND THEN ACTUALLY.
THE LARGE SCALE MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTEN AND THIS
LEADS TO SOME GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. MY PROBLEM
WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH IS TIMING SHORTWAVES OVER THE CREST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET (WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA). BEING BETWEEN THE LARGE AND BUILDING
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS (LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR 100 W) AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH (LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 65 W)
BRINGS EVERY SHORTWAVE THAT TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL THEN RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH EACH OF
THESE. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS FOR THE MOST PART NORTH AND EAST
OF HERE AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GULF INFLOW INTO ANY OF THESE
SHORTWAVES EVEN SO... I DO NOT SEE ANY OF THESE EVENTS AS BEGINNING
WET ENOUGH HELP OUR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
WHAT IS SEE HAPPENING AT UPPER LEVELS IS A LARGE STORM EAST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS MORNING MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. THAT BUILDS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHICH IS
WHY SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN END UP BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE POLAR JET BUT
NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A GENERAL PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT HOW
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN GETS MOST OF OUR BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS). MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE... THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.... KEEP THE REALLY COOL AIR NORTH AND EAST OF HERE AND THE
VERY HOT AIR SOUTH AND WEST OF HERE.
THE GENERIC FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20
PCT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 85 TO 90 AND LOWS 60 TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE RISK
IS RATHER LOW SO I PUT VCTS FOR NOW MOSTLY FROM 18Z TO 00Z FOR THE
WESTERN TAFS AND 21Z TO 03Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS COULD
BE GUSTY AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
RATHER QUIET ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS RESULTING IN LOW WAVE ACTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY STORMS GOING TODAY THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WE WILL BE SITTING ON NEARLY 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG
QUICKLY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40 KTS. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE
OF THE PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK