Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/27/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1058 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT DAY ON THE WAY. AT 1000 AM IT WAS 91
DEGREES...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
OF LOWER 100S APPEARS ON TRACK. AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA...WE MAY APPROACH THE ALL TIME HIGH OF 105 DEGREES AT
DENVER. ONLY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ON. DID
EXTEND LOW POPS TO THE FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY AREAS FOR THIS
EVENING. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THIS AREA THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST.
THE HOT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THUS WILL KEEP ALL
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE AT SEEING
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME NORMAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAINAGE DIRECTION BY 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND FM ERN CO INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH MAINLY SLY MID LVL FLOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY
KEEP HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY MORE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT
CATEGORY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OVER NERN CO IT LOOKS
DRY WITH VERY HOT TEMPS AS READINGS WILL BE ABV 100 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME READINGS EXCEED
105 DEGREES OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 100
TODAY SO THAT SHOULD BE BKN. IF LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SSW
ALONG THE FNT RANGE AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALL
TIME HIGH OF 105 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED.
FOR TONIGHT MOST HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 03Z OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD
TSTMS ALONG THE WY-CO BORDER IN ZN 38 EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL HOLD THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AND 850 MB ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
ON THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...HIGHS MAY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 90S. THE ONLY CHANGES
IN MODELS COMPARED TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN
MID-LEVEL...EARLY MONSOONAL...MOISTURE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL A PLUME OF DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND
ABNORMALLY WARM. WHEREAS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE
FAVORING TRACKS THAT KEEP DEBBY WELL EAST OF HERE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ROTATE OUT OF MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS. THIS WILL BEST BE ANALYZED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION LOOKS TO REMAIN DIRE
UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKES IT AROUND THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STARTS ARE GOING TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH AFTERNOON/S ROUND OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE WLY AS A WK SFC LOW WAS
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
REDEVELOPING IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING MORE
SSW BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. BY 00Z THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE
ACROSS. AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW. AT THIS
TIME NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE HAVE DECIDED TO
PLACE ALL OF THE FRONT RANGE IN A RED FLAG WARNING AS LATEST HRRR
INDICATES SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-25 WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO 5%. ALSO WILL INCLUDE ZNS 214
AND 216 AS WELL AS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE FOR
A FEW HOURS FM THE SSW THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...COULD SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE BURN AREAS HOWEVER
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218-
238>251.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
346 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND FM ERN CO INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH MAINLY SLY MID LVL FLOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY
KEEP HIGH BASED TSTM ACTVITY MORE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT
CATEGORY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OVER NERN CO IT LOOKS
DRY WITH VERY HOT TEMPS AS READINGS WILL BE ABV 100 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME READINGS EXCEED
105 DEGREES OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 100
TODAY SO THAT SHOULD BE BKN. IF LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SSW
ALONG THE FNT RANGE AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALL
TIME HIGH OF 105 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED.
FOR TONIGHT MOST HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 03Z OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD
TSTMS ALONG THE WY-CO BORDER IN ZN 38 EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL HOLD THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AND 850 MB ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
ON THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...HIGHS MAY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 90S. THE ONLY CHANGES
IN MODELS COMPARED TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN
MID-LEVEL...EARLY MONSOONAL...MOISTURE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL A PLUME OF DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND
ABNORMALLY WARM. WHEREAS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE
FAVORING TRACKS THAT KEEP DEBBY WELL EAST OF HERE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ROTATE OUT OF MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS. THIS WILL BEST BE ANALYZED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION LOOKS TO REMAIN DIRE
UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKES IT AROUND THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STARTS ARE GOING TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH AFTERNOON/S ROUND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE WLY AS A WK SFC LOW WAS
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
REDEVELOPING IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING MORE
SSW BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. BY 00Z THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE
ACROSS. AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW. AT THIS
TIME NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE HAVE DECIDED TO
PLACE ALL OF THE FRONT RANGE IN A RED FLAG WARNING AS LATEST HRRR
INDICATES SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-25 WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO 5%. ALSO WILL INCLUDE ZNS 214
AND 216 AS WELL AS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE FOR
A FEW HOURS FM THE SSW THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...COULD SEE ISOLATD HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE BURN AREAS HOWEVER
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ211>218-238>251.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...SIGNIFICANT CUT BACK POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO LACK OF PRECIP ON THE
RADAR. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FORCING FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS TOWARDS 09Z-12Z
FOR MUCH OFT THE AREA...BUT ONSET IS DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH ACTIVE
LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK
STATE...SO WILL MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS ALSO WHERE MODELS DEPICT THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE NCEP 4KM
WRF-NMM HAVE THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES E-SE BRUSHING THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/TACONICS
AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AT LEAST A LINE OR TWO FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH
SBCAPE OF GENERALLY 200-500 J/KG ANALYZED...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ANY
STORMS CREATE COLD POOLS.
ON MONDAY...MLMUCAPES ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE 500-1000 J/KG AT
MOST ALTHOUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY HAVE VALUES
OVER 1500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWALTER
INDICES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AS WELL AROUND MID DAY ON MONDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FA WHERE AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALSO THE
AREA WHERE THE H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE AXIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED
BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN PIVOT FROM NEAR CAPE COD TUESDAY EVENING TOWARDS
CENTRAL MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FINALLY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND COOL CONDITIONS
IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST
OF MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER WED
NIGHT...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A ECMWF/GFS/HPC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC...WILL BRING
SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GET INTO A BRIEF WARM SECTOR...AS H850 TEMPS
SURGE TO 18 TO 20 C ON FRI /1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. THE ECMWF HAS SOME OF THE H925 TEMPS GET TO 22 TO 26 C BY
LATE FRI. THE TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE THE LATE PM OR
EVENING TIME FRAME...SO WE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THAT TIME. A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE IN PLACE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS /SBCAPES 1000-2000+
J/KG/. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO U80S IN THE
VALLEYS ON FRI...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH STILL AN ISOLD THREAT
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS OVER SE CANADA...AND THE
NORTHEAST...AS NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PCPN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE TRACKING AROUND AND NEAR KGFL...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH BEHIND THE
BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS...SO ANY RAIN AFTER 10Z WOULD HAVE TO COME
FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOULD HAPPEN. OTHER STRONGER SHOWER AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER...AND COULD AFFECT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 09Z DEPENDING
ON HOW IT EVOLVES...THEN GET TO THE KPSF AREA PERHAPS AROUND 10Z.
AGAIN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING
AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN AFTER SUNRISE...BY MID MORNING.
SO...SUGGESTING TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-14Z DEPENDING ON WHICH TAF SITE...THEN PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z-14Z. BY LATE AFTERNOON 22Z-23Z THE
PREDOMINANT RAIN SHOULD BE DONE...BUT KEEPING VCSH UNTIL ABOUT
03Z-05Z...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN
COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON HOW AND WHERE THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW
FORMS...WHICH WOULD BE ADDRESSED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BELOW 5 KT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 11 KT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
MON NT...VFR/MVFR...SCT -SHRA.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR....SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLATED MAINLY PM -TSRA.
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR/MVFR...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 50 TO 80 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RECOVER TO 75 TO
100 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY...NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH AND A THIRD OF RAIN TO THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY HYDRO ISSUES
WITH JUST SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH 424 CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY
WITH PALM BEACH, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES ADDED TO THE WATCH.
THIS INCLUDES THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE COLLIER
COUNTY AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...(ISSUED 807 AM EDT) TORNADO WATCH 424 CONTINUES
UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY
APPROACHING SW FLA COAST MAINLY AND INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF OF
COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED
WARMING TOPS EARLIER HAVE NOW BEGUN TO COOL AGAIN. ALL OF THIS
OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS S FLA
WITH THE EMPHASIS OF THE WEATHER IN THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEE REGION AND W.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY.
AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY APPROACHING SW FLA COAST MAINLY AND
INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.
IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED WARMING TOPS EARLIER HAVE NOW BEGUN TO
COOL AGAIN. ALL OF THIS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY
AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS S FLA WITH THE EMPHASIS OF THE WEATHER IN THE NW 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEE REGION AND W.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.AVIATION...
EXPECT THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND AS PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE STATE EAST OF TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY. PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND THE AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A NARROW LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST TO THE LAKE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER SITE APF LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
REACHING THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SITE APF. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR
GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S.
DEBBY WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MAINLY WEST OF FMY BUT AS
THIS MOVES INLAND, THE THREAT WILL INCLUDE GLADES COUNTY. IR
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS BAND BUILDING AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND SO THE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
458 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR
GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S.
DEBBY WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MAINLY WEST OF FMY BUT AS
THIS MOVES INLAND, THE THREAT WILL INCLUDE GLADES COUNTY. IR
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS BAND BUILDING AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND SO THE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
&&
.MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM
DEBBY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTER PORTION OF MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER OF DEBBY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CSG TO VDI. THIS HAS
RESULTED ON BEST PRESSURE AND WIND GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TO THE NORTH...STILL SEEING
STRONGER NORTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH
AND HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS
PRECIP...AREA OF MOISTURE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTER BANDS
FROM DEBBY HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BUT SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A
LACK OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY.
LATEST RAP MIXED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE EVEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. BETTER VALUES TO THE NORTH BUT DRY
AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. STILL
HAVE CAPES OF 2500 J/KG SO NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON AREA YET AND
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTH.
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIRECTION WITH
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THE MOST
LIKELY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE WITH
THE GFS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. EFFECTS
LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION ON THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE STORM. COULD SEE SOME OUTER BANDS ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MID WEEK.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE NHC STILL KEEPING DEBBY IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF THE STORM DECIDES TO TAKE A FASTER
TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ON
SHORE THURSDAY AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ON THE EASTERN
SIDE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND END POPS
RELATED TO DEBBY BY THURSDAY.
BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WOULD PROVIDE
HOT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH
DEBBY AND DOESNT START BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 90S BUT IF DEBBY
MOVES OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO LIMIT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL PROVIDE LOW END GUSTS FOR ATL AND
HIGH GUSTS AT MCN AND CSG THROUGH TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE AND MOSTLY
VFR FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND FRONT ALLOWS WINDS OVER NORTH GEORGIA
TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. MEANWHILE...FLOW AROUND DEBBY WILL
PROMOTE MORE EASTERLY FOR THE SOUTH. TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE NEAR
ATL WHERE HAVE FAVORED A NE FLOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION TUESDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 89 60 92 / 20 10 10 10
ATLANTA 70 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 85 56 86 / 10 10 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 65 90 58 91 / 10 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 73 93 69 92 / 20 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 67 87 62 88 / 20 10 5 10
MACON 73 93 64 92 / 30 20 10 20
ROME 66 92 58 92 / 10 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 90 59 88 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 74 89 70 90 / 70 50 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTN WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS
OF 15-25 KTS DEVELOPING WED AM. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS LATER TNGT. LATEST RAP MODEL AND 18Z NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 35 KTS TO AROUND 40 KTS
AFT 06Z AT 1500-2000 FT AGL... MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING TNGT WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR STRONGER SUSTAINED SELY SFC WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO DEVELOP
LATE EVE AND OVRNGT... THEREBY MAKING IT MORE MARGINAL TO REACH
LLWS CRITERIA. AS A RESULT HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF LLWS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A RIBBON OF WARM
HUMID AIR IS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA...AND UP INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S. WE STILL HAVE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...FOR REASONABLY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION GOING ON AT 850MB...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT
500MB. 700MB SHOWS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
MIDWEST WITH A POOL OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 12C.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INCREASES
THE SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL. THIS FRONT STAYS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION ALONG THAT FRONT...SO WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR
OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR
TEMPERATURES TO BE HOT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIXING TECHNIQUES AND
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S WEST AND
LOW TO MID EAST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS GOING TO BE JUST HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO GET IN HERE FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS LATELY. FOR NOW HAVE SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE IF THIS GETS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
LE
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEAT DOME BUILDING INTO THE CWFA WED NIGHT WITH
BOTH 700 AND 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
DEW POINTS. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE HUMID AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 70S FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE CWFA. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL 700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM 14 TO 17C DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOWER
SOMEWHAT WITH A PASSING WAVE DURING THE MORNING BUT BUILD AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON TO WELL NORTH OF 100 DEGREES.
THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT IS THE HEAT. BASED ON FCST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HEADLINES FOR HEAT APPEAR LIKELY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURS/THURS NIGHT TO PROVIDE AN
INITIAL HEADS UP.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM MINS
FOR JUNE 28TH.
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS SUGGEST AN
MCS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST MOVING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA WOULD BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE CONVECTION
VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE MCS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWFA...BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS IS ON THE ASSUMPTION THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOLING WEAKENS THE CAP TO ALLOW CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP.
HEAT MAY BE A PROBLEM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MAKES THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES MORE QUESTIONABLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS HEAVILY AFFECTED BY THE OVERLY MOIST
GFS/DGEX...GIVES SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS HAVE AN ACTIVE TRAIN OF SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT. THUS ANY OF THEM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NOCTURNAL OR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE PERIODS
OF DRY WX DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS NEARLY ALL MODELS AGREE
ON HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES SCHC/CHC POPS WITH
THE WETTER/MORE MOIST GFS AND DGEX BEING THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE
POPS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SUBTLE
WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THUS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY A MAJORITY OF
THE TIME...DIURNAL AND POSSIBLY SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 08
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 28TH...
BURLINGTON........104 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS......103 IN 1931
DUBUQUE...........104 IN 1934
MOLINE............103 IN 1934
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH...
DUBUQUE...........79 IN 1931
MOLINE............81 IN 1931
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES
MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
WASHINGTON.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ITS MEAN AXIS JUST WEST OF YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SOME...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S...MAINLY OVER YUMA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S...WITH DAILY RECORDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QPF LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED...WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. I
INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OPENING UP
THE DOOR FOR LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGHS CRESTING OVER THE RIDGE TO
MOVE NEAR THE REGION. AS SUCH THERE ARE SEVERAL LOW CHANCE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION AND WHAT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING BEYOND THE
PERIOD THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH LOCATIONS...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GUSTING TO 25KTS AT AROUND 21Z. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. WITH RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY FUELS EVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE
ENOUGH FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IN THESE CONDITIONS. I PLAN ON
KEEPING RFW IN PLACE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RH/WIND CROSSOVER FOR RFW WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IF TD FAIL TO RECOVER AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED THEN RFW WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO RH/WIND...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
THURSDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1970
HILL CITY....110 IN 1933
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1963
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1963
YUMA.........102
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...AP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN ON THE HEAT.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. FLAT RIDGE
FRIDAY BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE.
850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE
100-115 DEGREE RANGE (COOLEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND HOTTEST
IN THE HILL CITY AREA). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SOUTHERLY WIND (NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WARMING) MAY
NEGATE FULL 850MB MIXING THUS WENT AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE HILL CITY
AREA...MID 90S TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
DID MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA.
700MB TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY BE TOO HOT FOR ANYTHING TO POP OR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES
5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK
HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITERIA.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5
PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 5 PERCENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN
OUT A POTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOTS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLATTENS
OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST PLACING THE REGION IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES
5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK
HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITERIA.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5
PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 5 PERCENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MONDAY...
GOODLAND.....104 IN 1990...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
HILL CITY....108 IN 1911...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 114 (SET SUNDAY)
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 112 (1933)
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 107 (1990)
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......106
COLBY........110
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
GOODLAND.....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111
HILL CITY....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 117
MCCOOK.......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 114
BURLINGTON...ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 107
YUMA.........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109
TRIBUNE......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
COLBY........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 (SET SUNDAY)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN
OUT A POTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOTS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLATTENS
OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST PLACING THE REGION IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES
5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK
HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITERIA.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5
PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 5 PERCENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MONDAY...
GOODLAND.....104 IN 1990...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
HILL CITY....108 IN 1911...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 114 (SET SUNDAY)
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 112 (1933)
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 107 (1990)
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......106
COLBY........110
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
GOODLAND.....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111
HILL CITY....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 117
MCCOOK.......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 114
BURLINGTON...ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 107
YUMA.........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109
TRIBUNE......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
COLBY........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 (SET SUNDAY)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 1800L: AREA OF RAIN W/ SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION ON THE
FRONT SIDE LIFTING NNE ACROSS OUR WRN AND SWRN AREAS ATTM...
ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT LATEST TRENDS - REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS FINE.
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS
HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN
MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY
RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM
WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND
SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER
COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW
COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING
AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM IN A LONG
TRAJECTORY FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN EAST AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGING ON HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
KATAHDIN REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL. THE WARM OCCLUSION AND ASSOCIATED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER MAINE BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL...AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM RECENT STORMS
COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
EXISTING FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS E XPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN EMERGES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
LIFT HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ZONES
FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE LOW 80S.. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AVOIDING INSTABILITY
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: IFR WILL THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR ALL TERMINALS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND BHB TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...IF NOT VFR...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE TEMPO IFR. IFR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES
COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW.
SHORT TERM: SCA MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WAVE HTS WILL STAY NEAR 4 FT IN A SE SWELL MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW
RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY
DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO
THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN
GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-
015-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
335 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS
HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN
MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY
RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM
WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND
SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER
COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW
COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING
AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES
COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW.
SHORT TERM:
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW
RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY
DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO
THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN
GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-
015-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND
BECOMING QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX
ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CUMULUS AND WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES WILL COOL TO NEAR 40
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH
TEMPS MODERATING. TUESDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE THERMAL
PROFILE ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL MODELS ARE DRY, HOWEVER THE ECMWF
INDICATES STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO
20-21C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS IS 17-19C. FORECAST IS
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 10 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL BUILD A FLAT RIDGE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
NORTHEAST UPPER LOW AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. KEPT FORECAST
HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN HPC GUIDANCE...BUT A TAD ABOVE GFS
NUMBERS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY...TAPERING TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
15Z TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER REGION WEST OF A NEW ENGLAND LOW. GUSTS TO 25 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND
WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND
COOLER START TO THE WEEK. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND BECOMING
QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN TEMP AND SKY.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX
ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND COOL SUMMER DAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S IN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL
FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SUBSIDES.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND
COOLER START TO THE WEEK. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND BECOMING
QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF EARLY SHOWERS AND TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX
ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND COOL SUMMER DAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 70S IN EASTERN
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL
FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SUBSIDES.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
628 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL TODAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
THEN BECOME QUITE WARM BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT RADAR DATA PLUS HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE LAST OF THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXITED PAST THE MOUNTAINS BY 7
AM, AND THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED ANA-COLD-FRONTAL SHOWERS BY 9 AM.
THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE WITH DRIER INTRUSION OF
POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS. NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW DEEPENING VERTICAL
MIX WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER CAN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 8 AM
READINGS, PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS, WHICH MEANS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL,
AND QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL
FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANY REMAINING CEILING RESTRICTIONS NEAR KFKL AND KDUJ TO
VANISH BY 13Z DUE TO POST FRONTAL DRYING. VFR WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING NW WINDS INTO THE ERN
CWA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING HAS DROPPED INLAND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWAT VALUES INTO THE 0.60 INCH TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD STILL ALLOW INLAND MIN READINGS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 12C-14C RANGE...GUIDANCE MAX INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOKED REASONABLE. MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 35
PERCENT. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING
THAT TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS AND
LATEST ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP ON A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE A POCKET
OF H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND BEST FORCING FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING TO THE NORTH WOULD TEND TO A
DRIER FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAIN CORE OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AOA 20C FOR THE WEST AND 17C FOR THE EAST
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD MIX TO ABOUT H8 DURING THE DAY...SO
TEMPS THERE ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF SFC TEMP POTENTIAL. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW STATES WILL TRY TO
ERODE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL VARIABILITY IS STILL A LITTLE HIGH ON THE TIMING OF RIDGE
DEAMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL WAA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEREBY KEEPING THE RIDGE A LITTLE
SHARPER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS AS WELL. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE IN THESE PATTERNS...THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN CONTROL A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE PREDICTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
BELOW 65 ACROSS THE WEST. FARTHER EAST...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THIS PASSAGE THAN THE GFS. COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE
IDEA...WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF APPROACH FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY HAS BECOME A QUESTION WITH TROPICAL STORM
DEBBIE SPINNING IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBBIE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THERE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE GULF AND PREVENT NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE SEEN WITH
THIS FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-CENTRAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAP FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
COOLER AIR LAGS THE FRONT SOMEWHAT...SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER SEVERAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. COOLEST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. THOUGH
WITH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS NOW IN THE 60S...COOLING EFFECT IS
DIMINISHING. RH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UNDER 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE NOT AN ISSUE ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PATTERN BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL AFTER THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND WILL BRING A COUPLE
VERY WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW AS MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH. ONE OF THE
WEAK WAVES QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. ONCE AGAIN...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT STALLS FROM IA TO
IN AND ROBS THE AREA OF ANY CHANCE OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE TRANQUIL
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
WINDS WL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH LK
BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
146 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS
AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR
46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E
UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT.
TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT
OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO
FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI
MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY
HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL
BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE
A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST
OF THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE
BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85
ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND
WEST AREAS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL
CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE
EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY
AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR
LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROUGH.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH
MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY
MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER
RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE
POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS
UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE
LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW
SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE
FORCING MECHANISM.
FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST
TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS
MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL
BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE
BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH.
TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO
NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS
AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR
46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E
UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT.
TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT
OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO
FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI
MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY
HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL
BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE
A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST
OF THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE
BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85
ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND
WEST AREAS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL
CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE
EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY
AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR
LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROUGH.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH
MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY
MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER
RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE
POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS
UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE
LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW
SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE
FORCING MECHANISM.
FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST
TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS
MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL
BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE
BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH.
TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO
NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
WINDS WL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH LK
BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS
AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR
46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E
UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT.
TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT
OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO
FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI
MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY
HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL
BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE
A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST
OF THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE
BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85
ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND
WEST AREAS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL
CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE
EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY
AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR
LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROUGH.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH
MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY
MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER
RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE
POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS
UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE
LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW
SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE
FORCING MECHANISM.
FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST
TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS
MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL
BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE
BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH.
TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO
NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
147 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
JPB
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS OUT THERE...AND STILL A BREATH OF A NORTH
WIND (A BIT MORE BRISK IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES). TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN LOW LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TO THE
UPPER 50S IN WIND. LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO DISPLAY THIS FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE...AS THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME WIND IN THOSE
EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS INCREASED LOWS THERE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN SKC
AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING.
SURFACE DWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...
WHICH CERTAINLY LENDS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
SAGINAW BAY BEFORE FROPA SHIFTED ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
ONLY SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN...AND WILL QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS JUST AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES...
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS
FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW
FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN
THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS.
AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH
PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN
OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT
FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW.
NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT
TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ-
GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A
FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE
PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE LOCALLY.
TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN
U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU
FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS.
THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE
BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/.
MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL
TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND
71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE
ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
/68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD.
TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO
NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE
MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS.
PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND
EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL
THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH
COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE
AIRMASS TRANSITIONS.
CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE.
DETAILS:
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT
HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER
SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE
AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA
LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND
THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT
ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF
AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK
OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/
SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID
80S/.
FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S
BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT
DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S
WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL
THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS.
GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL
THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. N/NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT
WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON.
TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25
KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER.
MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON
LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...JPB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JA
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
LIMITED FORCING...WHICH IS MAINLY CONFINED TO SC COUNTIES...AND
MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE...BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK CAP AROUND 16K
FT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE IT. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP WILL STRUGGLE IN THE DRY AIR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK LIFT.
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE BROKEN LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. DESPITE COLD FRONT BEING UNUSUALLY STRONG
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THE UPWARD MOTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL
THAT VIGOROUS. THE 5H TROF AXIS IS OFF THE COAST BY THE TIME THE
FRONT REACHES THE AREA...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND THERE
ARE NO OTHER FEATURES ALOFT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LIFT. THINK THE LINE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTAIN SOME DEEPER CONVECTION BUT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST BUT DO NOT THINK A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS
ON THE CARDS FOR TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF FRONT/LINE WILL LIMIT TOTAL
QPF...NEGATING FLOODING CONCERNS. COLD FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH COLD ADVECTION
BEGINNING AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON LOWS OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. IF ANY LOCATIONS ARE TO FEEL THE
FIRST IMPACTS OF THE IMPENDING COLD AIR IT WOULD BE NORTHWEST
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO MID 60S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ONTO SMALL POP FOR THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES TUESDAY WILL BE A
COOLER AND DRIER DAY OVERALL. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND
MULTIPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN THE AREA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
50S...WHILE COASTAL AREAS DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. A WARM-UP IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CLIMO AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY IMPLANTED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. NO POPS
REQUIRED AFTER TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON. OVERALL
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS
THAN AN INCH ON THURS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS DEEPER RETURN FLOW
SETS UP LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH VALUES REACHING BACK AROUND 1.5
INCHES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE MID 50S ON WED UP CLOSER TO 70 BY
THE WEEKEND. A RAPID WARM UP WILL OCCUR AS H5 HEIGHTS REACH UP NEAR
592 DEM BY FRI EVENING. 850 TEMPS SHOW AN INCREASE FROM AROUND 12C
EARLY WED MORNING UP CLOSE TO 25 C BY FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ON FRI AND REMAINING UP AROUND 90 FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND VERY WARM
TEMPS COULD BRING APPARENT TEMPS UP CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD WITH BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEBBY. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REMAIN ON AN E-NE TRACK...IT MAY
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY TRACK A BIT CLOSER
TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES A MOVE. LATEST GFS
SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST NEXT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND SOME PCP POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL KEEP PCP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUN
INTO MON TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCE FROM DEBBY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR LBT AND WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN DIURNALLY BY 01Z. THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING A
FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY 03-4Z. THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT LBT. THIS
LINE WILL LIKELY WANE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD...BUT IT COULD HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH THE AFFECT THE MYRTLES BY 06-07Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT
BRIEFLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SHIFTING AGAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUSTY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. TUESDAY...CONTINUED
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT GRADUALLY
PLOWS SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPEEDS CURRENTLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT...WITH A SOLID 20
KT POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 7 FT
OVERNIGHT...A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM THE SOUTH.
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. LOOKS AS THOUGH COLD ADVECTION
WILL ARRIVE BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...LIMITING GUSTINESS.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT...BUT WITH OFFSHORE COMPONENT STARTING TO KNOCK
BACK THE SEAS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT
CONTINUING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SEAS WILL BE
HIGHEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH DEBBY.
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS NOW AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL E-NE TRACK...THE
LATEST MODELS HOLDS DEBBY OVER THE GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
FINALLY MAKING A MOVE. THE GFS SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH NEXT SUN INTO MON WHILE THE ECWMF REMAINS SLOWER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INITIALLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN ON THURS WITH BERMUDA HIGH TAKING OVER FRI THROUGH SAT.
THEREFORE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS FRI THROUGH SAT.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 SEAS ON
THURS TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI THROUGH SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DEBBY
MOVES UP THE COAST MAY SEE AN INCREASING SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING. A HUMID AIR MASS STILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT A MID LEVEL JET IS SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING 2000 TO 2500 JOULE PER
KILOGRAM BY 21 UTC. WITH THE INSTABILITY... LIFT AND MOISTURE...WE
ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BECOME ACTIVE AFTER 18 UTC. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15000 AND 16000 FEET. THEREFORE
THE BIGGEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WINDS WITH
HAIL BEING LESS OF A THREAT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS MAINLY NORTH
OF A FLORENCE TO SOUTHPORT LINE BUT WE CAN NOT COUNT OUT STRONG
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60
INLAND AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS HALTING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ALONG THE COAST AS IT
RUNS INTO A QUASI TROPICAL WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH DEBBY APPEARS TO BE
BORNE OF SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODEL. EVEN SO IF THE
TRACK OF DEBBY IS SHIFTED TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS IT MAY STILL HAVE
A ROLE LOCALLY AS IT HOLDS UP THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND PREVENTS
THE VIGOR OF COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WE WERE ANTICIPATING WHEN DEBBY
WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A WESTBOUND SYSTEM. EVEN SO...THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BOTH WILL BE
MODULATED BY DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BARRING ANY COMPLICATIONS FROM DEBBY (I.E.
APPROACHING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WIND OR EVEN RAIN) THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF FAIRLY QUIETLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RH WILL INITIALLY BE
RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE.
LARGE FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE NATION FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. FIGURING OUT MOISTURE RETURN IS
A BIT MORE TRICKY AS IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GRADUAL. PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAY ACT TO SHUNT MUCH OF THE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEEP IT OFFSHORE. NATURALLY THIS DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR
GETTING RAINFALL CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
AMPLITUDE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND BOLSTERING THE SUMMER HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT
DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN
MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION
IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT
LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 AM MONDAY...SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND
INCREASE...THE LOCAL SHALLOW WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AREAS. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 PM
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
S OF 3 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE RIFE
WITH UNCERTAINTY COMPLIMENTS OF DEBBY IT WILL STILL BE A VERY
UNSETTLED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH RIGHT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MANAGES TO TRAVEL IS UNCERTAIN
AND HINGES UPON NOT ONLY THE ACTUAL ENVELOPE OF CIRCULATION AROUND
THE STORM BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE TROUGH/TROPICAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING
AWAY FROM THE STORM TO THE ENE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADV CARRIES
OVER FROM THE NEAR TERM BUT ONLY FOR NRN WATERS ALONG FRYING PAN
SHOALS WHERE 6 FT SEAS CONTINUE. NE OR EVEN E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONCE AGAIN DEBBY COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
NOT ONLY DIRECTION BUT ALSO SPEED AND AS A RESULT...WAVES HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EVENTUAL PATH OF DEBBY IS STILL SO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THAT THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST OF WIND
AND WAVES IS ABOUT AS SCABROUS AS IT GETS. WILL MAKE FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 400 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
THAN THE FARCICAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
258 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHOWERS HAVE WANED THIS MORNING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BUT A HUMID AIR MASS STILL EXIST AT
THE SURFACE WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A MID LEVEL JET IS SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING
2000 TO 2500 JOULE PER KILOGRAM BY 21 UTC. WITH THE INSTABILITY...
LIFT AND MOISTURE...WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BECOME ACTIVE AFTER
18 UTC. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15000 AND
16000 FEET. THEREFORE THE BIGGEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE WINDS WITH HAIL BEING LESS OF A THREAT. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS MAINLY NORTH OF A FLORENCE TO SOUTHPORT LINE BUT WE CAN
NOT COUNT OUT STRONG STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60
INLAND AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS HALTING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ALONG THE COAST AS IT
RUNS INTO A QUASI TROPICAL WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH DEBBY APPEARS TO BE
BORNE OF SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODEL. EVEN SO IF THE
TRACK OF DEBBY IS SHIFTED TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS IT MAY STILL HAVE
A ROLE LOCALLY AS IT HOLDS UP THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND PREVENTS
THE VIGOR OF COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WE WERE ANTICIPATING WHEN DEBBY
WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A WESTBOUND SYSTEM. EVEN SO...THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BOTH WILL BE
MODULATED BY DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BARRING ANY COMPLICATIONS FROM DEBBY (I.E.
APPROACHING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WIND OR EVEN RAIN) THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF FAIRLY QUIETLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RH WILL INITIALLY BE
RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE.
LARGE FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE NATION FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. FIGURING OUT MOISTURE RETURN IS
A BIT MORE TRICKY AS IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GRADUAL. PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAY ACT TO SHUNT MUCH OF THE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEEP IT OFFSHORE. NATURALLY THIS DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR
GETTING RAINFALL CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
AMPLITUDE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND BOLSTERING THE SUMMER HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT
DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN
MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION
IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT
LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET MAINLY FROM A
SOUTHEAST SWELL EVERY 9 SECONDS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND INCREASE...THE LOCAL SHALLOW WAVE
MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AREAS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
S OF 3 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE RIFE
WITH UNCERTAINTY COMPLIMENTS OF DEBBY IT WILL STILL BE A VERY
UNSETTLED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH RIGHT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MANAGES TO TRAVEL IS UNCERTAIN
AND HINGES UPON NOT ONLY THE ACTUAL ENVELOPE OF CIRCULATION AROUND
THE STORM BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE TROUGH/TROPICAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING
AWAY FROM THE STORM TO THE ENE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADV CARRIES
OVER FROM THE NEAR TERM BUT ONLY FOR NRN WATERS ALONG FRYING PAN
SHOALS WHERE 6 FT SEAS CONTINUE. NE OR EVEN E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONCE AGAIN DEBBY COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
NOT ONLY DIRECTION BUT ALSO SPEED AND AS A RESULT...WAVES HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EVENTUAL PATH OF DEBBY IS STILL SO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THAT THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST OF WIND
AND WAVES IS ABOUT AS SCABROUS AS IT GETS. WILL MAKE FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 400 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
THAN THE FARCICAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS MELLOWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MIDDLE EVENING. THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT HAS TRAVELED ENTIRELY
NW OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF
TODAY BEGINNING EARLY...CONVECTION EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
REMAINED LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE
PRODUCING FRESH AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION SW OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY
BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS THE PULSE CONVECTION PLAYS
OUT.
GIVEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION AND CIRRO-STRATUS FROM DEBBY
THINK OUR MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND OPTED FOR THE MILDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE INTO EARLY MONDAY...LOW/MIDDLE 70S AND MUGGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER MON ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST...EXTENDING 90+ HIGHS ALMOST TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THERE WILL BE NO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH WILL
HINDER DEEP CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. THE MAIN
PRECIP EVENT WILL BE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES MON
EVENING...ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ZERO IT IS
RATHER LOW. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LESS OF A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND OR SMALL HAIL.
LATE MON NIGHT COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF TUE.
850 TEMPS DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES C FROM MON TO TUE AND DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
AN INCH TUE AND COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TUE...LOW
TO MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALLOW FOR
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP BELOW TO WELL
BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS USED
IGNORING THE GFS SOLUTION FOR DEBBY...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COULD END UP HIGHER TUE
AND TEMPERATURES TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
AS COOL AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY FOR SUMMERTIME IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR LATE JUNE AS WELL. AS THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVES
IN ON THURSDAY SOME VERY GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN MAY GET UNDERWAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH SITS WELL REMOVED EAST OF THE U.S. IN THE
ATLANTIC. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THESE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE FOR A GRADUAL ONSET OF SOME TRUE SUMMER-LIKE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR TOP 100
DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE
OCEAN. TOUGH TO SAY IF AND WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN. MODELS HINT
THAT COULD BE IN ASSOC WITH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGING ALOFT SAT
INTO SUN. MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK IN DOING SO AND POPS WILL BE
CAPPED AT 20 AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT
AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER DECK OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT DOWN TO
IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN MOVING
TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OFF
THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN UNTIL
AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR
FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT LOCATION WILL
BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...S-SSE WINDS 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FEET EVERY 8-9
SECONDS CURRENTLY IN THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE A GREAT
DEAL INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY AS WINDS OFF NORTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA
INCREASE AS DEBBY PUSHES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AREA. THUS SEAS UP
TO 3 FEET DAYBREAK MONDAY POSSIBLE...FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS APPROACHING THE SC COASTAL
WATERS EARLY MONDAY...REPRESENTING THE OUTER RAIN SHIELD OF DEBBY.
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE WATERS...MORE FAVORED
OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE COLUMN BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MON AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE WIND
FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FOR TS DEBBY
KEEPS THE STORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS IS THE CASE LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM KY/OH
VALLEY. WINDS WOULD BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE AND 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS SOLUTION MOVES DEBBY ACROSS FL AND THEN TURNS THE STORM
NORTHEAST...PASSING IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT DEEPENS. IF
THAT HAPPENS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH HIGHER
SEAS WOULD BE LIKELY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AT
LEAST A SCA TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE 12 TO 18
HOUR PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MON AND MON NIGHT MAY
PUSH SEAS TO 6 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE...REQUIRING A SCA HEADLINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WASHES OUT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH GRADUALLY FORMS. WIND MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO WSW ON
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WIND SPED WILL
TEND TO BUILD OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY
GETTING INTO THE 10 TO 15 OR EVEN 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THOUGH AS THIS WILL BE COAST-PARALLEL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BUILDING SEAS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF 20 NM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
832 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AND EXPAND POPS A LITTLE BIT MORE TO THE WEST INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE.
THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS WARRANTED IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND DRIER AIR IN THAT REGION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE IN MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
STORMS TRYING TO REACH KMOT...AND PERHAPS KISN AGAIN. FOR
NOW...HAVE LET THE TEMPO GROUP AT KISN END...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE STORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA IN CASE THEY HOLD TOGETHER
AND REACH THE TERMINAL LOCATION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NDZ031-032-040-
043.
&&
$$
CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SERVE TO STRENGTHEN
THE CAP AND MAINTAIN A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ABOVE THE CAP IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
(NEAR DRY ADIABATIC) LAPSE RATES. THE 700MB-300MB LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY
MISSING ELEMENT IS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH ELEVATED ASCENT TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY RESULT
GENERATING A HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS OCCURRENCE
IS SMALL...BUT NOT ZERO. SINCE THIS POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE
IGNORED...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST FOR THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVER WEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR
WITH NEAR RECORD VALUES EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE TABLE BELOW.
SITE FORECAST RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH
WILLISTON 97 100 1931
DICKINSON 99 98 1961
BISMARCK 95 96 1961
MINOT 90 99 1910
JAMESTOWN 88 106 1931
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
AFFECTED AREAS. FURTHERMORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT
KEEPING THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES AROUND LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FROPA TIMING...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN H5 LOW WILL TOP THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT..BUT IT SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING
OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CARRY SMALL POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC 25.12Z
ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS THOSE DAYS SHOULD NOT BE WASH OUTS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN MVFR
CEILING TO KDIK...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS REMAINING AT THE OTHER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. RAP PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO KDIK IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR NDZ009-010-017>021-031>035-040>046.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-043.
&&
$$
TM...SHORT TERM
CK...LONG TERM/AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING ONTO LAKE ERIE
AND WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND 1045 PM.
ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
COVER WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH
ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK IF THE NOT
SOONER. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW
LOW WILL THE CLOUDS BE. IT IS TYPICAL AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO GET SOME STRATUS ESPECIALLY ONE WITH A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
COMPONENT. THE NAM MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE MAINLY FROM MFD EAST AND
STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL FORECAST SOME STRATUS AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT IT TO A VFR CEILING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT AROUND 4
THOUSAND FEET. A NORTHEAST WIND MAY HELP GET SOME CLOUDS OVER INTO
THAT AREA. TONIGHT THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE
NEAR 13C SO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A CEILING AT CLE...ERI AND YNG.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...TK/REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY
IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT AS
WARM AS SUNDAY CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.
GOOD CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER NE TN AND SW VA BUT NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED YET. WEAK COLD FRONT LIES OVER KY AND
WV WITH PRE FRONTAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
VA. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 3Z AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA AND THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF TN INCLUDING SW VA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE A COOLER NIGHT AS AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SW VA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 80S
ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS NEAR CHA MAY STILL BE CLOSE TO 90. HOWEVER DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH WILL HELP WITH
THE BREAK IN THE HEAT. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV LOWS TONIGHT AND THE
WARMER MAV HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SLOWLY
DRIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL CREATE
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM DEBBY
REMAINING FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO CREATE MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY
TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 88 59 90 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 62 84 56 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 84 56 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 80 53 86 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD/DMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1055 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a threat of thunderstorms are forecast for
Monday. Tuesday temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below
average as a low pressure system moves through the region.
Widespread rain and breezy winds are expected. A warming and
drying trend is likely Wednesday and Thursday. The weekend could
bring more showers to the mountains and below average temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest in the series of short waves is moving through the area
this morning bringing rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly north
of highway 2. This activity will move northward out of the area
with the short wave later this morning. Then more showers are
expected to develop over the Cascades and northern mountains later
this afternoon. Surface based instability is minimal in these
areas so a few thunderstorms are possible but not expected to be
severe. Farther to the east in the Panhandle the instability will
be greater. SPC has this area in a Slight Risk today and given the
0-6 km shear this looks plausible. However the HRRR model runs
this morning have been consistent in showing these storms
developing east of the MT/ID border.
Major weather system still on tap to move through the area on
Tuesday. More on this with the afternoon discussion. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern
mountains this morning will gradually move northward into southern
BC by 21Z. More showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the Cascades and northern mountains this afternoon.
This activity should not affect the TAF locations. A strong
Pacific storm system will move into the area tonight bringing
widespread rain and IFR/MVFR conditions Tuesday morning. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 79 54 56 43 73 50 / 20 30 90 50 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 79 54 56 44 71 47 / 20 20 100 60 10 0
Pullman 77 51 58 41 72 45 / 10 40 80 40 0 0
Lewiston 84 59 67 50 80 56 / 0 40 80 30 0 0
Colville 81 53 58 44 74 49 / 30 20 90 80 10 0
Sandpoint 77 52 54 42 69 44 / 30 20 100 90 20 0
Kellogg 79 52 55 43 71 49 / 20 40 100 70 10 10
Moses Lake 83 56 66 48 78 53 / 10 50 70 10 0 0
Wenatchee 80 56 65 51 77 56 / 10 60 70 20 0 0
Omak 80 54 62 46 76 52 / 20 30 70 40 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...HEAT/HUMIDITY WED/THU...SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU/THU NIGHT.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MI AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER OVER MUCH
OF MN/IA/WI BETWEEN THE TWO WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25MPH COMMON
ACROSS MN/IA AND 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS WI. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE FLOW WAS SPREADING SOME AC AND CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC
DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE 50S OVER WI/MN AND MOST OF IA...FOR
ANOTHER RATHER COMFORTABLE LATE JUNE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. MOISTURE PLUME WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S REMAINED OVER THE DAKOTAS TO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO.
NO MAJOR ISSUES NOTED WITH 26.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...OTHER
THAN THE GFS/S ROUGHLY 5F HIGH BIAS WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
PLAINS MOISTURE PLUME. SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT FOR GFS AND ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN THE LOWER LEVEL
AND GREATER PRODUCTION OF PRECIP STARTING LATE WED NIGHT. DPROG/DT
OF 500MB HGTS AT 26.12Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 24.12Z AND 25.12Z
VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. TREND TONIGHT/WED IS A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORING MORE PROGRESSIVE OF EARLIER RUNS WITH
FEATURES ACROSS NOAM. THIS TREND CONTINUES WED NIGHT/THU AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
HUDSONS BAY. CONSISTENCY GOOD FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
RETROGRESS INTO WESTERN NOAM THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AND BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NOAM. SOMEWHAT BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THRU THE PERIOD BY ECMWF. CHECK OF OBS VS.
MODEL DATA SHOWED ALL QUITE REASONABLE WITH THE SFC PRESSURE AND
DEW POINT FIELDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV IMAGERY...A BLEND OF THE
MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER NOAM/EASTERN
PAC. NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AND WITH THE TREND TOWARD A TIGHTER...
COMMON CONSENSUS...FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND THIS CYCLE. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MN WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH WITH HGTS RISING FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CAN. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW...AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED.
THIS FLOW PULLS A VERY WARM SFC-700MB AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 23C-29C RANGE /COOLER IN GFS/ BY
00Z THU. MIXING THESE TEMPS TO THE SFC WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE 90-
100F RANGE. THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST 925-850MB FLOW PUSHES THE
PLAINS MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE AREA WED...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
THRU THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WED AFTERNOON...APPROACHING 70F BY 00Z THU. HEAT
INDICES ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 100-105
RANGE IN THE 2PM-7PM TIME-FRAME WED AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF A MONDOVI WI...LA CROSSE...ELKADER
IA LINE FOR 1PM TO 8PM WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE MORE MOIST SFC-850MB AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR WED
NIGHT/THU...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THRU THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM 850-700MB TEMPS AND RATHER
STRONG CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE...WEAKEST IN GFS WITH ITS MORE MOIST
SFC-850MB LAYER. FRONT PUSHES THRU MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE 06-
18Z THU PERIOD...WITH BULK OF ANY FORCING/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON. GFS HOLDS
ONTO MORE POST-FRONTAL SFC-850MB MOISTURE AND POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
850-700MB FLOW LATE WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND
REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM THESE TIME PERIODS. CONTINUED
SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT...MOIST AIRMASS
AND INSTABILITY IN THE AREA.
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR FRI WITH A WEAK BUBBLE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BULK OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ARE FOCUSED SOUTH/WEST
OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOME 850-700MB CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE.
LEFT FRIDAY DRY. FRONT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI NIGHT BUT CONTINUED A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR FRI NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
WITH THE WARM 850MB TEMPS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR MIXING...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR WED.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THU AS WELL. USED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR FRI.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
26.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SAT/SUN. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR MON/TUE...WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TWO WHICH FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGING AND MOVE
TOWARD/INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO MODEL WITH
OBVIOUS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SAT-TUE. WITH SUBTLE DETAIL/SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES ON WEAK PIECES
OF ENERGY THRU THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW SAT/SUN AND THE LARGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES BY MON/TUE...COULD ARGUE FOR 15 TO 30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES EACH DAY. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE
SMALL SCALE/CONVECTIVE DETAILS...CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW ON RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SAT-TUE PERIOD. SOME CONSENSUS FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO PASS SAT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BE BUILDING INTO/ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/MON...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FOR TUE. CARRIED
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT AND TUE BUT LEFT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF MOST/ALL
OF THE AREA FOR SUN/MON. BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU
TUE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WEAK SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. THE BULK OF THESE WILL CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. HOWEVER...BOTH 26.21Z RAP AND
26.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALOFT OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS...BUT
THE TRENDS IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF ON
THESE SPEEDS. THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MAUSTON TO PRAIRIE DU CHIEN LINE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THIS AREA WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO
105 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER AS
WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND BRING A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. LOOKING AHEAD...WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ032-033-
041.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
334 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE PLUME COMING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PRODUCING A NICE BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER
WITH DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GENERATE THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL GO
AHEAD AND RAISE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS
IS NOT A FACTOR. STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD GENERALLY PRODUCE
RAIN THOUGH ENOUGH EVAPORATION FOR GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN TAKING ITS TIME PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
WYOMING. PRESSURE SURGE HAS PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF THE WIND
SHIFT NOW...SO THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE MAY HAVE A TWO
STAGE WIND SHIFT AS N-NW WINDS PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE DEEPER SURGE WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. HRRR MODEL
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A SHIFT TO NE WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA AS
EARLY AS 15Z...BUT CURRENT OBS SHOW A NWLY PUSH JUST INTO THE
BLACK HILLS...AND NO RESPONSE YET IN CENTRAL WYOMING. FOR NOW
PLANNING ON GOING MORE W-NW LATER THIS MORNING FROM MIXING...MAY
BE MORE NLY IF THE LEAD RIPPLE IS STRONG ENOUGH...THEN THE MAIN
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE
SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA...WHILE THE SE PART
SHOULD WARM VERY WELL THIS MORNING. WITH THE FRONT BEING MORE OF A
WIND SHIFT THAN A REAL COLD FRONT...THE COOLER TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
JUST AS MUCH FROM THE MOISTENING AS COLD ADVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST STILL PRETTY HOT AND LOOKS REASONABLE...THERE COULD BE
SOME COOLING FROM ADVECTION/EVAPORATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...DO NOT SEE
ANY CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...LITTLE ADJUSTMENT IN THE LONG TERM. A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH
A GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWFA.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT WITH CAPES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG.
INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH PW GENERALLY GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES.
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY PRODUCTS OF THE
STORMS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE HOT...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATED THEY
WILL EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK IN DENVER BUT THEY MAY GET CLOSE BY
THE WEEKEND. THE AMS DOES LOOK EVEN DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND SO
WILL CONFINE ANY POTENTIAL TSTMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THAT
TIME. A COLD FRONT MAY SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OF THE HIGH ON TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT NW
WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME IMPACT FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THE DENVER
AREA AIRPORTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE RAIN...BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OVER THE PLAINS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED...WITH SOME DRY
LIGHTNING STILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-50 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TODAY...BUT IN GENERAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
124 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST DURING MID WEEK THEN PASS INTO THE ATLANTIC WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE AS DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND ITS CIRCULATION AND A MID-
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THROUGH SUNRISE. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...A DEFORMATION
ZONE EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF DEBBY AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE AND
MOVING FARTHER FROM THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD SHOULD ALSO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. DESPITE THE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...A
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEBBY
AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE NORTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S...HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.
FRIDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 100 WELL INLAND TO
THE UPPER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT WELL INLAND OF THE COOLER
BEACHES. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EASILY IN THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE...AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL VERY LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY HOT AND
HUMID OVER THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE MID 70S. WE WILL SEE SOME
OF THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE COULD EVEN BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 24C...AND FORECAST
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 105 IN MANY AREAS. USING
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ALONG WITH MID 70 DEW POINTS PRODUCE HEAT
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 114 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY
AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS AND NEAR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
VALUES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID TO UPPER 90S...AS A MORE
ZONAL TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV AFTER SUNRISE ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BURNS
OFF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
BUOY AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS INDICATE WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE
WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A GALE WARNING GIVEN
THESE REPORTS...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY. WW4 OUTPUT RUNNING
ABOUT 1 FOOT BEHIND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ADJUSTED SEAS PER GOING
TRENDS.
WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
ALL WATERS AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST
WINDS COULD SURGE AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FAVORABLE FETCH WILL GENERATE SEAS AS HIGH 5-8 FT ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SHOULD
BE DOWN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT...IF NOT SOONER ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED FOR LATE
WEEK WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BEFORE HEADING FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE GULF STREAM. A FAIR
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
WEEKEND...BETWEEN 1-3 FEET FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-4 FOR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS...A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AND A CONTINUATION OF SWELL
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JUNE 27TH...
KCHS...65 SET IN 1967 AND PREVIOUS.
KCHL...66 SET IN 1967.
KSAV...63 SET IN 1979.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-
350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z/28TH WITH GUSTY S/SE WINDS
DEVELOPING WED AM VEERING TO SW WED AFTN. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AM... MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST RAP MODEL A BIT WEAKER WITH WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 2000 FT AGL INDICATING 30 TO 35 KTS BY 09Z-12Z... WHILE
00Z NAM MODEL IS AROUND 40 KTS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVRNGT AND ANTICIPATE WINDS TO BECOME
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-14 KTS BY 12Z WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD PRESENT MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT MENTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A RIBBON OF WARM
HUMID AIR IS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA...AND UP INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S. WE STILL HAVE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...FOR REASONABLY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION GOING ON AT 850MB...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT
500MB. 700MB SHOWS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
MIDWEST WITH A POOL OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 12C.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INCREASES
THE SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL. THIS FRONT STAYS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION ALONG THAT FRONT...SO WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR
OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR
TEMPERATURES TO BE HOT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIXING TECHNIQUES AND
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S WEST AND
LOW TO MID EAST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS GOING TO BE JUST HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO GET IN HERE FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS LATELY. FOR NOW HAVE SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE IF THIS GETS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
LE
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEAT DOME BUILDING INTO THE CWFA WED NIGHT WITH
BOTH 700 AND 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
DEW POINTS. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE HUMID AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 70S FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE CWFA. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL 700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM 14 TO 17C DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOWER
SOMEWHAT WITH A PASSING WAVE DURING THE MORNING BUT BUILD AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON TO WELL NORTH OF 100 DEGREES.
THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT IS THE HEAT. BASED ON FCST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HEADLINES FOR HEAT APPEAR LIKELY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURS/THURS NIGHT TO PROVIDE AN
INITIAL HEADS UP.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM MINS
FOR JUNE 28TH.
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS SUGGEST AN
MCS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST MOVING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA WOULD BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE CONVECTION
VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE MCS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWFA...BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS IS ON THE ASSUMPTION THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOLING WEAKENS THE CAP TO ALLOW CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP.
HEAT MAY BE A PROBLEM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MAKES THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES MORE QUESTIONABLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS HEAVILY AFFECTED BY THE OVERLY MOIST
GFS/DGEX...GIVES SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS HAVE AN ACTIVE TRAIN OF SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT. THUS ANY OF THEM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NOCTURNAL OR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE PERIODS
OF DRY WX DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS NEARLY ALL MODELS AGREE
ON HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES SCHC/CHC POPS WITH
THE WETTER/MORE MOIST GFS AND DGEX BEING THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE
POPS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SUBTLE
WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THUS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY A MAJORITY OF
THE TIME...DIURNAL AND POSSIBLY SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 08
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 28TH...
BURLINGTON........104 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS......103 IN 1931
DUBUQUE...........104 IN 1934
MOLINE............103 IN 1934
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH...
DUBUQUE...........79 IN 1931
MOLINE............81 IN 1931
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES
MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
WASHINGTON.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1121 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ITS MEAN AXIS JUST WEST OF YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SOME...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S...MAINLY OVER YUMA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S...WITH DAILY RECORDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QPF LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED...WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. I
INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OPENING UP
THE DOOR FOR LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGHS CRESTING OVER THE RIDGE TO
MOVE NEAR THE REGION. AS SUCH THERE ARE SEVERAL LOW CHANCE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION AND WHAT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING BEYOND THE
PERIOD THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL OCCUR MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM NEBRASKA. AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF A MICROBURST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. WITH RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY FUELS EVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE
ENOUGH FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IN THESE CONDITIONS. I PLAN ON
KEEPING RFW IN PLACE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RH/WIND CROSSOVER FOR RFW WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IF TD FAIL TO RECOVER AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED THEN RFW WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO RH/WIND...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
THURSDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1970
HILL CITY....110 IN 1933
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1963
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1963
YUMA.........102
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...AP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEBBY AND THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BUILT INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW AROUND 0.6 INCHES
VERSUS 2.4 INCHES IN THE TROPICAL PLUME TO OUR SOUTH. DEBBY`S
FORECAST PATH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AND ITS CLOUDINESS TOO FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. NORTHEAST BREEZES TODAY
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH 85-87 INLAND...WITH 81-84 EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO 59-65 WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
ON THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEBBY SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE RUNNING UP THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS BUILDING EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP
AROUND 595 DEM OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI WITH 850 TEMPS
REACHING UP CLOSE TO 24C...PRODUCING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORD VALUES. AFTER A COOL START THURS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN
CLOSER TO 60...A HUGE DIURNAL SWING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S BY AFTN. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP AT THE
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL RISE A GOOD
15 DEGREES FROM EARLY THURS TO LATE FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST
AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX TEMPS
REACHING ABOVE 100...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS
BUT WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH EVIDENT INLAND EACH DAY AND SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE VERY
LOW LEVELS TO SEE A FEW CU AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EVIDENT EACH AFTERNOON OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 25 C
AND 850 TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMEST DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING ABOVE 100.
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASING WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN ENHANCING THE HEAT.
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE MID 70S AND CLOSE TO 80 RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES
IN MOST PLACES AND CLOSER TO 110 FURTHER INLAND. SOME PLACES MAY
SEE APPARENT TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES AS SEA BREEZE CARRIES
IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. SHOULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN AT BAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. IF ANY CLOUDS OR SHWRS DO DEVELOP IT WILL
TAKE PLACE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING OFF THE COAST AT 06Z...AND SKC
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF FLOW BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
ACROSS FLORIDA AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS FROM WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT
WEATHER DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS INLAND ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. OF MORE IMPORTANCE TO OUR
WEATHER IS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WELL NORTHEAST OF
DEBBY ALONG THE GULF STREAM AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY IS PRODUCING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. AMONG OUR
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE THE GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
CONDITIONS BEST AND THESE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE
FORECAST TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 9 AM WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS AND 6+ FOOT SEAS EXPECTED AWAY FROM SHORE. WIND GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN NEARSHORE AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO ABATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...
AND I HAVE TENTATIVELY FORECAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
END BY 5 PM. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE AS A LAND BREEZE SPREADS OFFSHORE.
SEAS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND MAY BUILD TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE 6-7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME 8-9
FOOT SEAS COULD EVEN DEVELOP EAST OF WINYAH BAY WHERE A PARTICULARLY
LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR 12-18 HOURS. ONCE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEA HEIGHTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBBY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS COMING AROUND ON THURS AS BERMUDA HIGH
TAKES HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
THURS WILL BACK AROUND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRI AND
INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM DEBBY WILL
SUBSIDE LEAVING SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT OVER MOST WATERS BY LATE
THURS INTO FRI. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF DEBBY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY CHANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DEBBY REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE FARTHER AWAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL WILL SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE MORE W-SW BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN EVENING
AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AND BACKS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...
FRIDAY 101 (1959)
SATURDAY 100(1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990)
MONDAY 97 (1980)
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...
FRIDAY 101 (1998)
SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990)
MONDAY 102 (1954)
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS JUST CROSSING THE MISSOURI RIVER AS KMBG HAS
RECENTLY TURNED TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S VS THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD
OF IT. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ACCAS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND RECENTLY ISO
THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. THERE IS AN
OMEGA BULLSEYE AT 700 MB IN THIS REGION WITH A WEAK VORT MAXIMA.
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA UP THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING AND WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. 00Z NAM TRIED TO
SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT 06Z RUN BACKED OFF. HRRR ALSO SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. IT
WILL STILL TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TO SCOUR OUT THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BUT WILL SEE A DECENT FALL IN
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL ACTUALLY GET
RATHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY WITH READINGS AROUND 20
PERCENT. WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST FUELS STATUS UPDATE DOES STILL INDICATE A NO
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE ZONES...BUT THIS WAS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET...WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...WEAK SFC LOW KICKS OUT ACROSS SD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND MAY EVEN EXPAND NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS THAT THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE
STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RIDGE RIDER SHORT WAVES COULD
PROVIDE FOR SURPRISE CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. THAT SAID
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD INDICATION BY THE GFS/ECMWF THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE RIDGE. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION CHANCES BECOME
MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS.
GIVEN THE FORECAST HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT...SUSPECT THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
357 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
357 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON OPPRESSIVE HEAT TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...PLACING
THE REGION IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUGGY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA...PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH DEW POINTS
ONLY IN THE 50S. THESE LOW DEW POINTS WILL PRODUCE EARLY AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THESE AREAS. PLAN ON SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 10 TO 20
MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE LOWER RH VALUES AND
BREEZY WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...RANGING FROM 23 C ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 26 C ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THESE AREAS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FROM 1 PM
TO 8 PM.
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 25 C OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 31 C
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL SLACKEN THE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND
FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA SO HAVE DECIDED TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE FAVORED DECOUPLING AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN PLACE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OUT FOR SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH DAY ON THURSDAY THIS SHOULD HELP TO
MITIGATE HEAT CONCERNS. HOWEVER...HIGHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 100
ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...MUCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE...WITH SBCIN VALUES OF NEGATIVE 200-300 J/KG. IF
THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WOULD FIRE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 22 C BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION AND
INTERACTING THE BOUNDARY. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND
3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM 30 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH THE WARM AIR
ALOFT SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THE CAP THE FEW MODEL RUNS.
.LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
357 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MAUSTON TO PRAIRIE DU CHIEN LINE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THIS AREA WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE
BREEZY...WITH SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER AS
WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND BRING A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. LOOKING AHEAD...WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1152 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET DOES INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT 27.02Z RAP NOW SHOWS
35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT 2K FEET BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. WITH SURFACE WINDS
STAYING UP DUE TO THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY LLWS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
357 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MAUSTON TO PRAIRIE DU CHIEN LINE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THIS AREA WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE
BREEZY...WITH SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER AS
WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND BRING A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. LOOKING AHEAD...WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
357 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ032-033-041.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
346 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON OPPRESSIVE HEAT TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...PLACING
THE REGION IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUGGY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA...PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH DEW POINTS
ONLY IN THE 50S. THESE LOW DEW POINTS WILL PRODUCE EARLY AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THESE AREAS. PLAN ON SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 10 TO 20
MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE LOWER RH VALUES AND
BREEZY WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...RANGING FROM 23 C ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 26 C ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THESE AREAS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FROM 1 PM
TO 8 PM.
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 25 C OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO 31 C
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL SLACKEN THE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
DECOUPLING AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND
FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA SO HAVE DECIDED TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE FAVORED DECOUPLING AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN PLACE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH OUT FOR SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH DAY ON THURSDAY THIS SHOULD HELP TO
MITIGATE HEAT CONCERNS. HOWEVER...HIGHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 100
ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...MUCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE...WITH SBCIN VALUES OF NEGATIVE 200-300 J/KG. IF
THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WOULD FIRE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 22 C BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION AND
INTERACTING THE BOUNDARY. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND
3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM 30 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH THE WARM AIR
ALOFT SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THE CAP THE FEW MODEL RUNS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
346 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
27.00 FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FIRST TO TWO SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SECOND WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE
RIDGE...WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION
FIRE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO WARM HIGHS
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLDS. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1152 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET DOES INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT 27.02Z RAP NOW SHOWS
35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT 2K FEET BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. WITH SURFACE WINDS
STAYING UP DUE TO THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY LLWS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MAUSTON TO PRAIRIE DU CHIEN LINE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THIS AREA WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE
BREEZY...WITH SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER AS
WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND BRING A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. LOOKING AHEAD...WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
346 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ032-033-041.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN TODAY. THE RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT LATE TONIGHT. STRONG 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 18
CELSIUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
A 50 KNOT 850 KNOT WIND MAX MOVES FROM WESTERN IOWA WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER RH VALUES ARE STILL
RATHER LOW...SO LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER THE
STRONG CAP AROUND 7 THSD FT. WHILE THE 850 MB WIND MAX
WEAKENS...THE VERY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 29C JUST WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY EVENING...BUT REMAIN AROUND 22C ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 30 CELSIUS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. BREEZY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 28C ON THE NAM
BY LATE AFTERNOON...YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. SOME UPPER
90S ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND SOUTH OF MADISON.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW TODAY...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE GRASS AND
OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO
THE DRIER DEWPOINTS...NO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TODAY.
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 32 CELSIUS BY MIDNIGHT...SO A
VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THURSDAY FORECAST. STILL LOOKS QUITE
HOT...WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...MAYBE 100
TOWARD ILLINOIS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN...WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING DECENT
SATURATION AROUND 500 MB...SO GOOD CHANCE FOR DECK OF AT LEAST
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. THINKING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH FOR THE ANTICIPATED HOT TEMPS. WITH DEWPOINTS
CREEPING UP TO AROUND 70...STILL THINKING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO EXCITED
ABOUT CHANCES THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY A BIT STRONGER WITH CAP
THAN THEY WERE A DAY AGO. STILL A TON OF CAPE IN SOUNDINGS...THOUGH
PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE WITH NAM/GFS DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY IF THE FORECAST
STAYS ON TRACK. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FOR NOW THOUGH DUE TO SOME
CLOUD/PRECIP UNCERTAINTIES...ALONG WITH FRONT TIMING AND LOWERING
925 MB TEMPS FROM THE NW.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH LIKELY NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THURSDAY. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE REGION...KICKING OFF
SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN ANY ONE PERIOD FOR
PRECIP...BUT AT LEAST SOMETHING TO HOPE FOR GIVEN VERY DRY
CONDITIONS.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
LOOKS DRY AND CONTINUED WARM MONDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS. GFS DIGS A TROUGH IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SLIDES THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD WITH CONTINUED DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...SUGGESTING HIGHS REMAINING AROUND
90...ALONG WITH SOME LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
CURRENT RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS AT
1 THSD FT BY SUNRISE AT MADISON...SO SOME WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD BE MARGINAL. THE 1 THSD FT WINDS ARE WEAKER
TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 22 TO
25KT EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING MADISON.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A
VERY WARM AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE SCENARIO AND LAKE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE LAND
TEMPERATURES HAVING A STABILIZING EFFECT...DID NOT ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
WEST OF MADISON. DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 21 TO 28 PERCENT RANGE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
GRASS AND OTHER VEGETATION BEING DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...HEAT/HUMIDITY WED/THU...SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU/THU NIGHT.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MI AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER OVER MUCH
OF MN/IA/WI BETWEEN THE TWO WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25MPH COMMON
ACROSS MN/IA AND 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS WI. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE FLOW WAS SPREADING SOME AC AND CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC
DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE 50S OVER WI/MN AND MOST OF IA...FOR
ANOTHER RATHER COMFORTABLE LATE JUNE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. MOISTURE PLUME WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S REMAINED OVER THE DAKOTAS TO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO.
NO MAJOR ISSUES NOTED WITH 26.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...OTHER
THAN THE GFS/S ROUGHLY 5F HIGH BIAS WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
PLAINS MOISTURE PLUME. SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT FOR GFS AND ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN THE LOWER LEVEL
AND GREATER PRODUCTION OF PRECIP STARTING LATE WED NIGHT. DPROG/DT
OF 500MB HGTS AT 26.12Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 24.12Z AND 25.12Z
VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. TREND TONIGHT/WED IS A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORING MORE PROGRESSIVE OF EARLIER RUNS WITH
FEATURES ACROSS NOAM. THIS TREND CONTINUES WED NIGHT/THU AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
HUDSONS BAY. CONSISTENCY GOOD FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
RETROGRESS INTO WESTERN NOAM THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AND BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NOAM. SOMEWHAT BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THRU THE PERIOD BY ECMWF. CHECK OF OBS VS.
MODEL DATA SHOWED ALL QUITE REASONABLE WITH THE SFC PRESSURE AND
DEW POINT FIELDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV IMAGERY...A BLEND OF THE
MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER NOAM/EASTERN
PAC. NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AND WITH THE TREND TOWARD A TIGHTER...
COMMON CONSENSUS...FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND THIS CYCLE. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MN WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH WITH HGTS RISING FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CAN. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW...AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED.
THIS FLOW PULLS A VERY WARM SFC-700MB AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 23C-29C RANGE /COOLER IN GFS/ BY
00Z THU. MIXING THESE TEMPS TO THE SFC WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE 90-
100F RANGE. THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST 925-850MB FLOW PUSHES THE
PLAINS MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE AREA WED...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
THRU THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WED AFTERNOON...APPROACHING 70F BY 00Z THU. HEAT
INDICES ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 100-105
RANGE IN THE 2PM-7PM TIME-FRAME WED AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF A MONDOVI WI...LA CROSSE...ELKADER
IA LINE FOR 1PM TO 8PM WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE MORE MOIST SFC-850MB AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR WED
NIGHT/THU...AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THRU THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM 850-700MB TEMPS AND RATHER
STRONG CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE...WEAKEST IN GFS WITH ITS MORE MOIST
SFC-850MB LAYER. FRONT PUSHES THRU MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE 06-
18Z THU PERIOD...WITH BULK OF ANY FORCING/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON. GFS HOLDS
ONTO MORE POST-FRONTAL SFC-850MB MOISTURE AND POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
850-700MB FLOW LATE WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND
REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM THESE TIME PERIODS. CONTINUED
SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT...MOIST AIRMASS
AND INSTABILITY IN THE AREA.
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR FRI WITH A WEAK BUBBLE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BULK OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ARE FOCUSED SOUTH/WEST
OF THE FCST AREA WHILE SOME 850-700MB CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE.
LEFT FRIDAY DRY. FRONT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI NIGHT BUT CONTINUED A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR FRI NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
WITH THE WARM 850MB TEMPS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR MIXING...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR WED.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THU AS WELL. USED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR FRI.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
26.00 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SAT/SUN. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR MON/TUE...WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TWO WHICH FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGING AND MOVE
TOWARD/INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO MODEL WITH
OBVIOUS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SAT-TUE. WITH SUBTLE DETAIL/SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES ON WEAK PIECES
OF ENERGY THRU THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW SAT/SUN AND THE LARGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES BY MON/TUE...COULD ARGUE FOR 15 TO 30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES EACH DAY. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE
SMALL SCALE/CONVECTIVE DETAILS...CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW ON RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SAT-TUE PERIOD. SOME CONSENSUS FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO PASS SAT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BE BUILDING INTO/ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/MON...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FOR TUE. CARRIED
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT AND TUE BUT LEFT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF MOST/ALL
OF THE AREA FOR SUN/MON. BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU
TUE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1152 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET DOES INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT 27.02Z RAP NOW SHOWS
35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT 2K FEET BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. WITH SURFACE WINDS
STAYING UP DUE TO THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE MENTIONING ANY LLWS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A MAUSTON TO PRAIRIE DU CHIEN LINE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THIS AREA WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO
105 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER AS
WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND BRING A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. LOOKING AHEAD...WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ032-033-
041.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...RABERDING
FIRE WEATHER...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CI/AC...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAKOTAS...WILL CLEAR EASTERN WI BY 09Z.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR SURFACE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. 00Z
NAM SOUNDINGS CONFIRM LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT
KMSN AROUND 08Z...BUT THE STRONGER 1000-1500 FT WINDS WILL NOT MAKE
THE EASTERN TAF SITES BEFORE DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS THE SURFACE
WINDS UP TO PREVENT THE SPEED DIFFERENTIAL NEEDED. GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH ONLY DEBRIS FROM WESTERN
CONVECTION SPILLING OVER RIDGE INTO REGION. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA...COUPLED WITH AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS IN THE
VERY WARM 23 TO 28C RANGE...WILL LEAN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI
WED THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING A SHORT-LIVED HEAT WAVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI THIS WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY THIS EVENING THEN
CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SSW WINDS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. THE BLOW TORCH
WILL BE ON WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND
28C...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MANY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. BUMPED THESE VALUES
UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE FAVORABLE HOT SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH THU IS
BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE HEAT AND HIGH HEAT INDICES...WED MAY END UP
HAVING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE HUMIDITY.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW ON WED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE GRASS AND
OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AMPLITUDE OF UPPER RIDGING REACHED ITS PEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. 500 MILLIBAR THEN FLATTENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
VERY WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING READINGS IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR LOWS. PREFER THE DRIER LOOK THE 12Z
NAM/00Z ECMWF WITH QPF ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. NEVERTHELESS 925/850 TEMPS DO NOT TAIL OFF TOO MUCH.
925 TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 20SC/LOW 30SC. AFTERNOON RELIEF
EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE AS LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN. INLAND...GOING OFF
STRICTLY THE 925/850 TEMP TECHNIQUE...MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S WITH
SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS PLAUSIBLE. LIGHTER WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS
MAY RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE POOLING...AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
GFS AND GEM ARE BOTH CONVECTING WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. 700
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 12C SO THINK BREAKING THE CAP MAY BE REAL
TOUGH. THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH RELIEF POTENTIAL HIGHEST IN THE FAR EAST
NEAR LAKE MI.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WNW UPPER FLOW. CORE OF THE HOT AXIS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF HAS THE
HOTTEST 925 TEMPS STILL NUDGING INTO THE CWA...GFS WELL SOUTH. THE
NAM IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. STILL KEEPS US WELL INTO THE 90S. PREFER
THE DRIER AND LESS NOISY LOOK OF THE ECMWF/NAM VERSUS THE GFS/GEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND GEM CONTINUE WITH NOISY VORTS WITHIN THE WNW 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW SUGGESTING SOME RAIN. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT CONDITIONS
WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. LEANING DRY LOOK AT THIS
POINT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WITH MODELS HINTING AT SHORTWAVE IN THE NW
UPPER FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS SHOWING THE WET LOOK SO FROM A
WISHCASTING POINT OF VIEW THIS WOULD BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS WAVE AS BEING LEGIT THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. GFS LOOKS TOO FAST. HINTS OF
WAA INDUCED PRECIP...QUITE LIGHT ON THE ECMWF. GFS LOOKS OVERBLOWN.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
AGAIN GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF SLOWER.
12Z RUN SHOWS A LITTLE MORE ACCELERATION THOUGH PRECIP LARGELY TO
OUR NORTHWEST.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL
BE SOME CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING.
AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS... NAM AND RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CRANK WINDS UP TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY WITHIN 1500 FT OVER A
SHALLOW INVERSION. THESE WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER ON THE GFS SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY... HOWEVER MENTIONED THE WIND SHEAR IN THE MSN
TAF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 22 TO 25KT EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING MSN. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A VERY WARM
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...UP
TO 23 KNOTS. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. GIVEN
THE BORDERLINE SCENARIO AND LAKE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE LAND
TEMPERATURES HAVING A STABILIZING EFFECT...DID NOT ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE.
FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25 MPH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE GRASS AND OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1140 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MAINE THROUGH
TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE...10Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A BKN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DRIFTING SE INTO S NH AND NE/CENTRAL MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL MID TO
LATE AFTN DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE SAME AREAS AS WELL.
EXTENDED EARLIER FCST OF SCT COVERAGE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
ALSO LATER...INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MARGINAL BUT DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER FOR STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
FROM ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MAINE TODAY WITH DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS SNE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN WHICH WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CU/AC...WITH MOST CLOUD COVER
NE HALF SNE WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST...WHILE MOST SUNSHINE WILL
BE ACROSS SW ZONES. WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING S AROUND THE MID LEVEL
LOW MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM S NH THROUGH CENTRAL AND
E MA AND HAVE CHC POPS. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND NO THUNDER AS MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE WARMING
LEADING TO MEAGER MID LAPSE RATES.
TEMPS...WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMALS GIVEN MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS. WARMEST
READINGS INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LOW PROB OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NE ZONES BUT SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES SW ZONES AND PT-MOCLDY FURTHER NE. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.
THURSDAY...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO THE
MARITIMES...WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL
WARMING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER NE ZONES WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPS ARE COOLEST.
850 MB TEMPS START OUT AROUND 10-12C AND WARM TO 14-16C BY THE END
OF THE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. SO TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WARMEST CT VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
* WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AND REMAINS THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE DIFFERENCES RELATE TO THE TIMING
OF THE TROUGHS APPROACH AND THEN DEPARTURE FROM THE REGION. THIS
WILL AFFECT WHEN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN THE FORECAST BUT OVERALL GOOD
CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL SEE A RETURN TO
WARMER...MORE HUMID WEATHER AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IS REPLACED BY MORE ZONAL FLOW. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
WILL GO DOWN A BIT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND
CERTAINLY ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
WHEN A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY
EVEN THE LOWER 90S DURING THIS TIME.
MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS A BIT OF
RELIEF FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES AT THIS POINT...TO BE
EXPECTED AS IT IS DAY 7. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM S NH THROUGH CENTRAL AND NE MA.
LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS. WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW PROB OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLD TSTM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE. WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES TODAY.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING SCA
THRESHOLD OF 25 KT ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. WNAWAVE AND SWAN
GUIDANCE ARE CURRENTLY TOO HIGH ON THE SEAS SO OUR FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS IS A BIT LOWER...BUT WE OPTED TO KEEP SCA
GOING OVER SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR COMBINED POTENTIAL OF 5 FT
SEAS AND NEAR 25 KT GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW
SCA TONIGHT AND THU...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SWELL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. THESE
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER
MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE WIND GUSTS MAY NEAR 25
KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1134 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER VORTEX CENTERED
ACROSS MAINE WITH DEEP RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT, CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE AREA WILL STILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW,
ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FEW-SCT COVERAGE
TODAY WITH MOST CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH AS A MID DECK
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO
MORE WESTERLY TODAY, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES 850 TEMPS INCREASING TO 14-15C BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP
TODAY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAMP, CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 80S FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF WITH THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL PUT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE A MAV/MET BLEND,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. RIDGE TOPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS AN INVERSION
SETS UP OVERNIGHT.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT
HAS BEEN THE STORY FOR SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
INDICATING 850 TEMP INCREASING TO 20-22C AND GFS/GFSE AT 18-19C.
ANOTHER DIFFERENCE THAT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE
MOISTURE PROFILE, WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THE GFS IS TOO
WARM WITH DEW POINTS. THUS, FORECAST IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH THE UL WAVE THU
NIGHT, WITH THE NAM SHOWING A SFC REFLECTION MOVING THROUGH. WILL
GO WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS THU NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND, WITH THE PASSAGE AT
NIGHT, EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.
A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH THE WAVE THU NIGHT AND
MOVE SOUTH ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON POSITION OF FRONT AND ANOTHER UL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL GO WITH SCHC/LOW CHC
POPS.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE DAILY, WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE UPR
OH REGION SHOULD TAP SOUTHERN WARMTH SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN A
WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AS TIMING OF DISTURBANCES IN FLOW IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS STAGE OF
THE FORECAST...WL MAINTAIN CHANCE/NR CLIMO POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST NO HIGHER
THAN 15-20 KTS AND THEN SUBSIDE WITH DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT PREVALENT VFR, BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND HAZE CAN DEVELOP
BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS MAY
OCCUR AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1004 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY POSITIONED
WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE LAND MASS HOWEVER...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA SO
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TODAY. FORECAST PWATS
HOVER AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...AND
COMBINE THIS WITH TEMPS REACHING ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S DUE TO
COOL NE FLOW...TODAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE SPRING THAN EARLY
SUMMER.
THE ONLY CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND GUSTY MORNING WINDS NEAR THE
COAST ON UPWIND SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST
FROM TD DEBBY. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...SO WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST WILL WANE
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING EAST LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST WEST OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHT
WARM-SHIFT IS NOTED DUE TO SOME WEAK WAA WHICH WILL KEEP MINS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. EXPECT THIS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD...SO FOR PERSISTENCE WILL SHOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD MINS RIGHT AROUND 60...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE
COOLEST POCOSIN SWAMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEBBY SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE RUNNING UP THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS BUILDING EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP
AROUND 595 DEM OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI WITH 850 TEMPS
REACHING UP CLOSE TO 24C...PRODUCING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORD VALUES. AFTER A COOL START THURS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN
CLOSER TO 60...A HUGE DIURNAL SWING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 90S BY AFTN. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP AT THE
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL RISE A GOOD 15
DEGREES FROM EARLY THURS TO LATE FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST AREAS WILL
MOST LIKELY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
ABOVE 100...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS
BUT WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH EVIDENT INLAND EACH DAY AND SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE VERY
LOW LEVELS TO SEE A FEW CU AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EVIDENT EACH AFTERNOON OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 25 C
AND 850 TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMEST DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING ABOVE 100.
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASING WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN ENHANCING THE HEAT. WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL ALSO
RISE INTO THE MID 70S AND CLOSE TO 80 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES
AND CLOSER TO 110 FURTHER INLAND. SOME PLACES MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES AS SEA BREEZE CARRIES IN HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. SHOULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN AT BAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. IF ANY CLOUDS OR SHWRS DO DEVELOP IT WILL
TAKE PLACE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 22 KTS. BY EARLY EVENING...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL DECREASE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...CURRENT WIND AND SEAS MATCH ONGOING
FORECAST...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT SLOWLY
EASING WINDS AND SEAS AS INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS TODAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM BELOW:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS INLAND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. OF MORE IMPORTANCE TO OUR WEATHER IS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WELL NORTHEAST OF DEBBY ALONG THE GULF
STREAM AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. AMONG OUR SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THE GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CONDITIONS BEST
AND THESE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 9 AM WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS AND 6+ FOOT SEAS EXPECTED AWAY FROM SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN NEARSHORE AT TIMES. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON... AND I HAVE TENTATIVELY FORECAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO END BY 5 PM. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A LAND BREEZE SPREADS
OFFSHORE.
SEAS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND MAY BUILD TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE 6-7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME 8-9
FOOT SEAS COULD EVEN DEVELOP EAST OF WINYAH BAY WHERE A PARTICULARLY
LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR 12-18 HOURS. ONCE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEA HEIGHTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBBY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS COMING AROUND ON THURS AS BERMUDA HIGH
TAKES HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
THURS WILL BACK AROUND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRI AND
INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM DEBBY WILL
SUBSIDE LEAVING SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT OVER MOST WATERS BY LATE
THURS INTO FRI. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF DEBBY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY CHANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DEBBY REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE FARTHER AWAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL WILL SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE MORE W-SW BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN EVENING
AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AND BACKS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
725 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS WE`VE BROKEN SEVERAL RECORD LOWS
THIS MORNING. WILMINGTON HAS BEEN DOWN TO 57 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 61 SET BACK IN 1955. AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH THE
TEMPERATURE DIPPED TO 58 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 63 DATING BACK
TO 1955. AND FLORENCE HAS ALSO SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 58 BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 60 SET BACK IN 1979.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY AND THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BUILT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW AROUND 0.6 INCHES VERSUS 2.4 INCHES IN
THE TROPICAL PLUME TO OUR SOUTH. DEBBY`S FORECAST PATH KEEPS THE
SYSTEM AND ITS CLOUDINESS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. NORTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES INTO
THE CAROLINAS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH 85-87 INLAND...WITH 81-84 EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO 59-65 WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
ON THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEBBY SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE RUNNING UP THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS BUILDING EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP
AROUND 595 DEM OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI WITH 850 TEMPS
REACHING UP CLOSE TO 24C...PRODUCING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORD VALUES. AFTER A COOL START THURS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN
CLOSER TO 60...A HUGE DIURNAL SWING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 90S BY AFTN. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP AT THE
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL RISE A GOOD 15
DEGREES FROM EARLY THURS TO LATE FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST AREAS WILL
MOST LIKELY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
ABOVE 100...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS
BUT WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH EVIDENT INLAND EACH DAY AND SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE VERY
LOW LEVELS TO SEE A FEW CU AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EVIDENT EACH AFTERNOON OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 25 C
AND 850 TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMEST DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING ABOVE 100.
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASING WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN ENHANCING THE HEAT. WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL ALSO
RISE INTO THE MID 70S AND CLOSE TO 80 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES
AND CLOSER TO 110 FURTHER INLAND. SOME PLACES MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES AS SEA BREEZE CARRIES IN HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. SHOULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN AT BAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. IF ANY CLOUDS OR SHWRS DO DEVELOP IT WILL
TAKE PLACE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 22 KTS. BY EARLY EVENING...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL DECREASE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY WIND AND SEA OBSERVATIONS MATCH
FORECASTS...NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM
FOLLOWS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS INLAND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. OF MORE IMPORTANCE TO OUR WEATHER IS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WELL NORTHEAST OF DEBBY ALONG THE GULF
STREAM AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. AMONG OUR SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THE GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CONDITIONS BEST
AND THESE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 9 AM WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS AND 6+ FOOT SEAS EXPECTED AWAY FROM SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN NEARSHORE AT TIMES. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON... AND I HAVE TENTATIVELY FORECAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO END BY 5 PM. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A LAND BREEZE SPREADS
OFFSHORE.
SEAS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND MAY BUILD TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE 6-7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME 8-9
FOOT SEAS COULD EVEN DEVELOP EAST OF WINYAH BAY WHERE A PARTICULARLY
LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR 12-18 HOURS. ONCE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEA HEIGHTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBBY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS COMING AROUND ON THURS AS BERMUDA HIGH
TAKES HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
THURS WILL BACK AROUND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRI AND
INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM DEBBY WILL
SUBSIDE LEAVING SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT OVER MOST WATERS BY LATE
THURS INTO FRI. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF DEBBY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY CHANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DEBBY REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE FARTHER AWAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL WILL SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE MORE W-SW BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN EVENING
AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AND BACKS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS WE`VE BROKEN SEVERAL RECORD LOWS
THIS MORNING. WILMINGTON HAS BEEN DOWN TO 57 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 61 SET BACK IN 1955. AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH THE
TEMPERATURE DIPPED TO 58 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 63 DATING BACK
TO 1955. AND FLORENCE HAS ALSO SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 58 BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 60 SET BACK IN 1979.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY AND THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BUILT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW AROUND 0.6 INCHES VERSUS 2.4 INCHES IN
THE TROPICAL PLUME TO OUR SOUTH. DEBBY`S FORECAST PATH KEEPS THE
SYSTEM AND ITS CLOUDINESS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. NORTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES INTO
THE CAROLINAS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH 85-87 INLAND...WITH 81-84 EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO 59-65 WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
ON THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEBBY SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE RUNNING UP THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS BUILDING EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP
AROUND 595 DEM OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI WITH 850 TEMPS
REACHING UP CLOSE TO 24C...PRODUCING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORD VALUES. AFTER A COOL START THURS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN
CLOSER TO 60...A HUGE DIURNAL SWING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 90S BY AFTN. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP AT THE
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL RISE A GOOD 15
DEGREES FROM EARLY THURS TO LATE FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST AREAS WILL
MOST LIKELY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
ABOVE 100...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS
BUT WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH EVIDENT INLAND EACH DAY AND SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE VERY
LOW LEVELS TO SEE A FEW CU AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EVIDENT EACH AFTERNOON OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 25 C
AND 850 TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMEST DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING ABOVE 100.
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASING WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN ENHANCING THE HEAT. WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL ALSO
RISE INTO THE MID 70S AND CLOSE TO 80 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES
AND CLOSER TO 110 FURTHER INLAND. SOME PLACES MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES AS SEA BREEZE CARRIES IN HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. SHOULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN AT BAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. IF ANY CLOUDS OR SHWRS DO DEVELOP IT WILL
TAKE PLACE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING OFF THE COAST AT 06Z...AND SKC
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF FLOW BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
ACROSS FLORIDA AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS FROM WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT
WEATHER DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY WIND AND SEA OBSERVATIONS MATCH
FORECASTS...NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM
FOLLOWS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS INLAND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. OF MORE IMPORTANCE TO OUR WEATHER IS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WELL NORTHEAST OF DEBBY ALONG THE GULF
STREAM AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. AMONG OUR SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THE GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CONDITIONS BEST
AND THESE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 9 AM WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS AND 6+ FOOT SEAS EXPECTED AWAY FROM SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN NEARSHORE AT TIMES. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON... AND I HAVE TENTATIVELY FORECAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO END BY 5 PM. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A LAND BREEZE SPREADS
OFFSHORE.
SEAS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND MAY BUILD TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE 6-7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME 8-9
FOOT SEAS COULD EVEN DEVELOP EAST OF WINYAH BAY WHERE A PARTICULARLY
LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR 12-18 HOURS. ONCE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEA HEIGHTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBBY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS COMING AROUND ON THURS AS BERMUDA HIGH
TAKES HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
THURS WILL BACK AROUND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRI AND
INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM DEBBY WILL
SUBSIDE LEAVING SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT OVER MOST WATERS BY LATE
THURS INTO FRI. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF DEBBY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY CHANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DEBBY REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE FARTHER AWAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL WILL SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE MORE W-SW BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN EVENING
AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AND BACKS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...
FRIDAY 101 (1959)
SATURDAY 100(1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990)
MONDAY 97 (1980)
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...
FRIDAY 101 (1998)
SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990)
MONDAY 102 (1954)
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ250- 252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1054 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF
THIS CWA...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS. THAT
SAID...A MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT H85 HAS
RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
VERY LITTLE PCPN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. WILL TOSS IN
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS JUST CROSSING THE MISSOURI RIVER AS KMBG HAS
RECENTLY TURNED TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S VS THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD
OF IT. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ACCAS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND RECENTLY ISO
THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. THERE IS AN
OMEGA BULLSEYE AT 700 MB IN THIS REGION WITH A WEAK VORT MAXIMA.
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA UP THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING AND WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. 00Z NAM TRIED TO
SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT 06Z RUN BACKED OFF. HRRR ALSO SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. IT
WILL STILL TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TO SCOUR OUT THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BUT WILL SEE A DECENT FALL IN
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL ACTUALLY GET
RATHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY WITH READINGS AROUND 20
PERCENT. WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST FUELS STATUS UPDATE DOES STILL INDICATE A NO
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE ZONES...BUT THIS WAS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET...WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...WEAK SFC LOW KICKS OUT ACROSS SD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND MAY EVEN EXPAND NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS THAT THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE
STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RIDGE RIDER SHORT WAVES COULD
PROVIDE FOR SURPRISE CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. THAT SAID
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD INDICATION BY THE GFS/ECMWF THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE RIDGE. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION CHANCES BECOME
MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS. GIVEN THE FORECAST HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT...SUSPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
658 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS JUST CROSSING THE MISSOURI RIVER AS KMBG HAS
RECENTLY TURNED TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S VS THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD
OF IT. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ACCAS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND RECENTLY ISO
THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. THERE IS AN
OMEGA BULLSEYE AT 700 MB IN THIS REGION WITH A WEAK VORT MAXIMA.
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA UP THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING AND WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. 00Z NAM TRIED TO
SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT 06Z RUN BACKED OFF. HRRR ALSO SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. IT
WILL STILL TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TO SCOUR OUT THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BUT WILL SEE A DECENT FALL IN
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL ACTUALLY GET
RATHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY WITH READINGS AROUND 20
PERCENT. WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST FUELS STATUS UPDATE DOES STILL INDICATE A NO
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE ZONES...BUT THIS WAS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET...WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...WEAK SFC LOW KICKS OUT ACROSS SD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND MAY EVEN EXPAND NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS THAT THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE
STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RIDGE RIDER SHORT WAVES COULD
PROVIDE FOR SURPRISE CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. THAT SAID
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD INDICATION BY THE GFS/ECMWF THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE RIDGE. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION CHANCES BECOME
MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS. GIVEN THE FORECAST HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT...SUSPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1125 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...WAS TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK. THIS WARNING WILL GO
IN EFFECT AT NOON TODAY AND WILL RUN UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE CURRENTLY MONITORING A WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY BACKING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SHOWING UP AS A FINE LINE ON RADAR HAS
SLOWED WARMING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OUT THAT WAY BY
A DEG OR TWO. NEXT...CLOUD BAND MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AN INDICATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO SLOW WARMING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME...ALSO STABILIZED THE BNDRY LAYER SOME. ONLY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CONFINED UP
ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH PARK WILDFIRE
IN LARIMER COUNTY. IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BELIEVE WILL SEE
T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS UP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SET OFF SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED
T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS. NEW FORECAST GRIDS
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 2 PM MDT...DENVER AIRPORTS COULD
SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 45
MPH. STORM ACTIVITY IN THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT IN
THE EVENING. NOTE...A SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING COULD
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM THE LARGE WILDFIRE IN EL PASO COUNTY. THE
SMOKE COULD GENERATE ILS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT APA AND DIA
AIRPORT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A FEW STORMS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN UNDER 35 MINUTES. AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO THE RELATIVE FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE STORM CELLS...
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...MOISTURE PLUME COMING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PRODUCING A NICE BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER
WITH DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GENERATE THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL GO
AHEAD AND RAISE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS
IS NOT A FACTOR. STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD GENERALLY PRODUCE
RAIN THOUGH ENOUGH EVAPORATION FOR GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN TAKING ITS TIME PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
WYOMING. PRESSURE SURGE HAS PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF THE WIND
SHIFT NOW...SO THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE MAY HAVE A TWO
STAGE WIND SHIFT AS N-NW WINDS PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE DEEPER SURGE WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. HRRR MODEL
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A SHIFT TO NE WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA AS
EARLY AS 15Z...BUT CURRENT OBS SHOW A NWLY PUSH JUST INTO THE
BLACK HILLS...AND NO RESPONSE YET IN CENTRAL WYOMING. FOR NOW
PLANNING ON GOING MORE W-NW LATER THIS MORNING FROM MIXING...MAY
BE MORE NLY IF THE LEAD RIPPLE IS STRONG ENOUGH...THEN THE MAIN
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE
SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA...WHILE THE SE PART
SHOULD WARM VERY WELL THIS MORNING. WITH THE FRONT BEING MORE OF A
WIND SHIFT THAN A REAL COLD FRONT...THE COOLER TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
JUST AS MUCH FROM THE MOISTENING AS COLD ADVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST STILL PRETTY HOT AND LOOKS REASONABLE...THERE COULD BE
SOME COOLING FROM ADVECTION/EVAPORATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...DO NOT SEE
ANY CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...LITTLE ADJUSTMENT IN THE LONG TERM. A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH
A GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWFA.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT WITH CAPES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG.
INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH PW GENERALLY GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES.
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY PRODUCTS OF THE
STORMS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE HOT...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATED THEY
WILL EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK IN DENVER BUT THEY MAY GET CLOSE BY
THE WEEKEND. THE AMS DOES LOOK EVEN DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND SO
WILL CONFINE ANY POTENTIAL TSTMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THAT
TIME. A COLD FRONT MAY SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OF THE HIGH ON TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO.
AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT NW
WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME IMPACT FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THE DENVER
AREA AIRPORTS.
FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE RAIN...BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OVER THE PLAINS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED...WITH SOME DRY
LIGHTNING STILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-50 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
HYDROLOGY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TODAY...BUT IN GENERAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214>216.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER/GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER/GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE..ADJUSTED THE POPS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS W/40% PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE HRR AND RUC DOING
WELL W/THE LATEST SETUP KEEPING HEAVIEST RAFL ACROSS THE EASTERN
3RD AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS STAY(90-100%).
SOME SHOWERS SHOWING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW BUT THESE SHOULD WEAKEN
W/LOSS OF HEATING THAT OCCURRED.
REPORTS OF AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS VERY HIGH W/HEAVY DOSE OF
RAINFALL. MATTAWAMKEAG AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS THE ONES TO WATCH
ATTM. NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, JUST NUISANCE STUFF AND
THOSE AREAS ARE IMPROVING SUCH AS HOWLAND AND CARMEL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PESKY LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTS TO SPIN AND REMAIN NRLY
STATIONARY OVR W CENTRAL MAINE ATTM... PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTS TO
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM W/ SAT SHOWING MOISTURE PLUME XTNDG N-S
FROM THE WRN ATLC UP ACROSS FAR NERN CANADA THEN LOOPING WWRD
ACROSS NRN QUEBEC AND THEN FINALLY SWRD BACK DOWN ACROSS WRN
QUEBEC AND THEN INTO OUR SYSTEM. ATTM...SOME DRIER AIR CONTS TO
SLOWLY BE ENTRAINED INTO THIS SYSTEM W/ THE DRIEST AIR COMING IN
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW... WHERE THIS IS OCCURRING AND WHERE WE
ARE SEEING SOME INSOLATION...ALSO NOTING A FEW LTG STRIKES ATTM
WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS HAD A BIT MORE CHC TO DESTABILIZE. HEAVIEST
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CONTS ON THE E SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS
ERN AND NERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THREE HR RADAR ESTIMATES
GENERALLY SHOW .25-.5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR ERN BORDER BTWN
KHUL AND KCAR. COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS THRU TNGT OF BTWN .5-1.0
INCHES ACROSS THE NERN FA BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CAUSE ANY
FLOOD ISSUES W/ THE FAR NE NOT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED OVR CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
PAST 3-5 DAYS.
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHG EXPECTED THRU THE EVE HRS... LOW WILL CONT
TO SPIN OVR W CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO OPEN UP
AND DRIFT NEWRD INTO NRN NB BY THU AM. BEST QPF WILL CONT ACROSS
FAR ERN AND NERN AREAS INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS AND THEN GRADUALLY
LIFT NWRD OUT OF ALL BUT EXTREME FAR NERN AREAS BY LATE TNGT/ERLY
THU. WILL CONT TO MENTION SOME OCNLY HEAVY RAIN PSBL THRU THE EVE
HRS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT JUST A WDSPRD SHOWERY REGIME TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THU W/ POPS RANGING FROM CHC ACROSS THE W AND
SW TO LIKELY E ERLY IN THE DAY TAPERING DOWN TO SLGT CHC W AND SW
AND CHC E BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THIS STUBBORN LOW GRADUALLY
RELEASES ITS GRIP ON THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT FINALLY
PUTTING AN END TO OUR WET WEATHER PATTERN...ALBEIT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MU CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE
IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND 0 - 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT. WILL NOT MENTION
ENHANCED WORDING YET BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND
THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S
DOWNEAST...EXCEPT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL EVEN BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80
ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED TNGT W/ CONDS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES THU AM.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING DURING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE CHANCE FOR MVFR OR
EVEN BRIEF IFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR SOME SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY MAINLY NORTHERN
TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR OUR OUTER WATERS
UNTIL MDNGT W/ SEAS AT THE ERN MAIN SHELF CURRENTLY NR 7 FT W/ 6
FT AT JONESPORT... SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN LATER TNGT AND
THE REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THU.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE...UPDATED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MATTAWAMKEAG FOR IMPACT
AS THE BANCROFT ROAD WILL FLOOD W/A FCST STAGE OF 13.5-14.0 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANX THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WRN AREAS BUT HAVE EXTND THE
WATCH FOR ZNS 5/6 THRU 8 PM THIS EVE.
RFC NOW FCSTS THE MATTAWAMKEAG TO GO ABV FLOOD STAGE BY THU AM W/
THE RVR CURRENTLY JUST ABV ACTION STAGE. HAVE ISSUED THE POINT
FLOOD WRNG FOR THE MATTAWAMKEAG AND HAVE BEEN IN CONTACT W/THE
FIRE DPT IN MATTAWAMKEAG AND THEY ARE AWARE OF THE SITUATION.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/KHW
MARINE...HEWITT/KHW/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING
INVERTED TROUGH HAVE BEEN THE ONLY STORY IN AN OTHERWISE BEAUTIFUL
EARLY SUMMER DAY. LARGE EXPANSE OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS WINDS
SLOWLY EASE DUE TO WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
EASING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OF WINDS SHORTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL...AND TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN THE DRY COLUMN AFTER
DARK. DURING THE NIGHT...MID LEVEL HIGH PUSHES EAST HELPING RAISE
850MB TEMPS 4-6C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT AS THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
COOLING SINCE SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH BELOW A STEEP
INVERSION...WILL BE FORCED TO RISE AS WELL. THE COOLEST TEMPS MAY BE
FELT A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF...OR EVEN RISING
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MORNING. STILL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 60...EXCEPT
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST POCOSIN SWAMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...PERHAPS MID 90S WELL INLAND ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SUCH THAT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DUE TO MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 2 OR
THREE HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS COMBINE TO YIELD
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 WHILE MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE FRONT PRESENT BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS DESPITE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON FRIDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM ALONG THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST ABUNDANT. POPS
ARE BASICALLY 0 THURSDAY AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SIZZLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ASPHALT
MIRAGES WILL BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND AS INTENSE HEAT TAKES HOLD OF
THE AREA...AS A MAMMOTH RIDGE ALOFT BARRELS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-112 FRI AND SAT. AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR H.I. VALUES OVER 105
DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A WARNING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AS INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY...BUT THE WATCH TIME FOR NOW IS VALID
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO THE NATURAL INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. IF YOU BELIEVE IN THE ECMWF...WE COULD
HAVE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...FRIDAY 101 (1959) SATURDAY 100 (1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990) MONDAY 97 (1980).
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...FRIDAY 101 (1998) SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990) MONDAY 102 (1954).
AT THE SURFACE AN AMPLIFIED THERMAL-TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE FAR INTERIOR AND SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SW WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LARGE LAND VS SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD DRIVE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL PASS WELL E AND NE OF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT HERE...EXPECT POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE
RIP THREAT...BUT EVEN THIS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN LOCAL IMPACT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE DRY BELOW 850 MB...NO FOG. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER FLORIDA DOMINATES THE WEATHER. THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTH SOUTHWEST RESULTANT IN THE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE MYRTLES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 524 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILM NC WATERS
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...GOOD THROUGH
8 PM WEDNESDAY. LATEST BUOY OBS AND HRRR TRENDS CONTINUE WITH NE
WINDS 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...THROUGH 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILM SC WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...NOW LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST...IS CONTINUING TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH WEAKENING VERY
SLOWLY...AND HRRR BEST REPRESENTS LATEST TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO BREAK DOWN AS DEBBY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS
TO EASE AND SEAS TO THEN FALL.
WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING STRONGER THAN CURRENT PROGS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS ATTM...SO HAVE ENHANCED
BOTH...AND EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ256 AND AMZ254
UNTIL 8PM. AS WINDS DECAY TONIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL SLOWLY...BECOMING
2-4 FT OVERNIGHT WITH N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND PLENTY FRESH WATER WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR BOATING AND RECREATIONAL EXCURSIONS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD 4 FEET OR LESS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GROWING SE
WAVES OF 4-5 FEET MAY BE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS AS DEBBY
PASSES WELL E OF THE COAST. EACH AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
S-SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DUE TO THE STRONG LAND VS SEA-SFC
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE SEA SPECTRUM SAT-MON WILL BE COMPRISED
OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 1-2 FT AT 4-5
SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOCAL WINDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND MAINLY ON LAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND WELL
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. PRESSURE PATTERN SAT-MON WILL FOSTER SW WINDS
10-15 KT...HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 3PM-7PM IN-SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO MARINE
NWS WILMINGTON NC
524 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING
INVERTED TROUGH HAVE BEEN THE ONLY STORY IN AN OTHERWISE BEAUTIFUL
EARLY SUMMER DAY. LARGE EXPANSE OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS WINDS
SLOWLY EASE DUE TO WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
EASING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OF WINDS SHORTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL...AND TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN THE DRY COLUMN AFTER
DARK. DURING THE NIGHT...MID LEVEL HIGH PUSHES EAST HELPING RAISE
850MB TEMPS 4-6C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT AS THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
COOLING SINCE SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH BELOW A STEEP
INVERSION...WILL BE FORCED TO RISE AS WELL. THE COOLEST TEMPS MAY BE
FELT A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF...OR EVEN RISING
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MORNING. STILL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 60...EXCEPT
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST POCOSIN SWAMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...PERHAPS MID 90S WELL INLAND ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SUCH THAT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DUE TO MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 2 OR
THREE HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS COMBINE TO YIELD
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 WHILE MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE FRONT PRESENT BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS DESPITE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON FRIDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM ALONG THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST ABUNDANT. POPS
ARE BASICALLY 0 THURSDAY AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SIZZLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ASPHALT
MIRAGES WILL BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND AS INTENSE HEAT TAKES HOLD OF
THE AREA...AS A MAMMOTH RIDGE ALOFT BARRELS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-112 FRI AND SAT. AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR H.I. VALUES OVER 105
DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A WARNING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AS INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY...BUT THE WATCH TIME FOR NOW IS VALID
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO THE NATURAL INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. IF YOU BELIEVE IN THE ECMWF...WE COULD
HAVE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...FRIDAY 101 (1959) SATURDAY 100 (1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990) MONDAY 97 (1980).
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...FRIDAY 101 (1998) SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990) MONDAY 102 (1954).
AT THE SURFACE AN AMPLIFIED THERMAL-TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE FAR INTERIOR AND SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SW WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LARGE LAND VS SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD DRIVE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL PASS WELL E AND NE OF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT HERE...EXPECT POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE
RIP THREAT...BUT EVEN THIS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN LOCAL IMPACT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE. TOWARDS SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL DECREASE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MORNING. AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 524 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILM NC WATERS
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...GOOD THROUGH
8 PM WEDNESDAY. LATEST BUOY OBS AND HRRR TRENDS CONTINUE WITH NE
WINDS 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...THROUGH 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILM SC WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...NOW LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST...IS CONTINUING TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH WEAKENING VERY
SLOWLY...AND HRRR BEST REPRESENTS LATEST TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO BREAK DOWN AS DEBBY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS
TO EASE AND SEAS TO THEN FALL.
WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING STRONGER THAN CURRENT PROGS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS ATTM...SO HAVE ENHANCED
BOTH...AND EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ256 AND AMZ254
UNTIL 8PM. AS WINDS DECAY TONIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL SLOWLY...BECOMING
2-4 FT OVERNIGHT WITH N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND PLENTY FRESH WATER WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR BOATING AND RECREATIONAL EXCURSIONS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD 4 FEET OR LESS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GROWING SE
WAVES OF 4-5 FEET MAY BE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS AS DEBBY
PASSES WELL E OF THE COAST. EACH AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
S-SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DUE TO THE STRONG LAND VS SEA-SFC
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE SEA SPECTRUM SAT-MON WILL BE COMPRISED
OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 1-2 FT AT 4-5
SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOCAL WINDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND MAINLY ON LAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND WELL
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. PRESSURE PATTERN SAT-MON WILL FOSTER SW WINDS
10-15 KT...HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 3PM-7PM IN-SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...JDW/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING
INVERTED TROUGH HAVE BEEN THE ONLY STORY IN AN OTHERWISE BEAUTIFUL
EARLY SUMMER DAY. LARGE EXPANSE OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS WINDS
SLOWLY EASE DUE TO WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
EASING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OF WINDS SHORTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL...AND TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN THE DRY COLUMN AFTER
DARK. DURING THE NIGHT...MID LEVEL HIGH PUSHES EAST HELPING RAISE
850MB TEMPS 4-6C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT AS THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
COOLING SINCE SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH BELOW A STEEP
INVERSION...WILL BE FORCED TO RISE AS WELL. THE COOLEST TEMPS MAY BE
FELT A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF...OR EVEN RISING
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MORNING. STILL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 60...EXCEPT
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST POCOSIN SWAMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...PERHAPS MID 90S WELL INLAND ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SUCH THAT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DUE TO MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 2 OR
THREE HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS COMBINE TO YIELD
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 DEGREES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 WHILE MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE FRONT PRESENT BOTH DAYS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS DESPITE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON FRIDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM ALONG THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST ABUNDANT. POPS
ARE BASICALLY 0 THURSDAY AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SIZZLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ASPHALT
MIRAGES WILL BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND AS INTENSE HEAT TAKES HOLD OF
THE AREA...AS A MAMMOTH RIDGE ALOFT BARRELS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-112 FRI AND SAT. AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
WEEKEND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR H.I. VALUES OVER 105
DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A WARNING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AS INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY...BUT THE WATCH TIME FOR NOW IS VALID
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO THE NATURAL INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. IF YOU BELIEVE IN THE ECMWF...WE COULD
HAVE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...FRIDAY 101 (1959) SATURDAY 100 (1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990) MONDAY 97 (1980).
RECORD HIGHS AT FLO...FRIDAY 101 (1998) SATURDAY 103 (1990)
SUNDAY 101 (1990) MONDAY 102 (1954).
AT THE SURFACE AN AMPLIFIED THERMAL-TROUGH AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE FAR INTERIOR AND SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SW WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LARGE LAND VS SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD DRIVE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL PASS WELL E AND NE OF THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT HERE...EXPECT POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE
RIP THREAT...BUT EVEN THIS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN LOCAL IMPACT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE. TOWARDS SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL DECREASE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MORNING. AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...NOW LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST...IS CONTINUING TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH WEAKENING VERY
SLOWLY...AND HRRR BEST REPRESENTS LATEST TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO BREAK DOWN AS DEBBY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS
TO EASE AND SEAS TO THEN FALL.
WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING STRONGER THAN CURRENT PROGS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS ATTM...SO HAVE ENHANCED
BOTH...AND EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ256 AND AMZ254
UNTIL 8PM. AS WINDS DECAY TONIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL SLOWLY...BECOMING
2-4 FT OVERNIGHT WITH N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND PLENTY FRESH WATER WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR BOATING AND RECREATIONAL EXCURSIONS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD 4 FEET OR LESS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GROWING SE
WAVES OF 4-5 FEET MAY BE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS AS DEBBY
PASSES WELL E OF THE COAST. EACH AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
S-SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DUE TO THE STRONG LAND VS SEA-SFC
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE SEA SPECTRUM SAT-MON WILL BE COMPRISED
OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 1-2 FT AT 4-5
SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOCAL WINDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND MAINLY ON LAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND WELL
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. PRESSURE PATTERN SAT-MON WILL FOSTER SW WINDS
10-15 KT...HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 3PM-7PM IN-SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...JDW/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING
INVERTED TROUGH HAVE BEEN THE ONLY STORY IN AN OTHERWISE BEAUTIFUL
EARLY SUMMER DAY. LARGE EXPANSE OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS WINDS
SLOWLY EASE DUE TO WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
EASING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OF WINDS SHORTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL...AND TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN THE DRY COLUMN AFTER
DARK. DURING THE NIGHT...MID LEVEL HIGH PUSHES EAST HELPING RAISE
850MB TEMPS 4-6C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ACT AS THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
COOLING SINCE SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH BELOW A STEEP
INVERSION...WILL BE FORCED TO RISE AS WELL. THE COOLEST TEMPS MAY BE
FELT A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF...OR EVEN RISING
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MORNING. STILL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 60...EXCEPT
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST POCOSIN SWAMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEBBY SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE RUNNING UP THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS BUILDING EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP
AROUND 595 DEM OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI WITH 850 TEMPS
REACHING UP CLOSE TO 24C...PRODUCING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORD VALUES. AFTER A COOL START THURS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN
CLOSER TO 60...A HUGE DIURNAL SWING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 90S BY AFTN. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP AT THE
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL RISE A GOOD 15
DEGREES FROM EARLY THURS TO LATE FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST AREAS WILL
MOST LIKELY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
ABOVE 100...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS
BUT WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH EVIDENT INLAND EACH DAY AND SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE VERY
LOW LEVELS TO SEE A FEW CU AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EVIDENT EACH AFTERNOON OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 25 C
AND 850 TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMEST DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING ABOVE 100.
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASING WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN ENHANCING THE HEAT. WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL ALSO
RISE INTO THE MID 70S AND CLOSE TO 80 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES
AND CLOSER TO 110 FURTHER INLAND. SOME PLACES MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES AS SEA BREEZE CARRIES IN HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. SHOULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN AT BAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. IF ANY CLOUDS OR SHWRS DO DEVELOP IT WILL
TAKE PLACE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE. TOWARDS SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL DECREASE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MORNING. AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY...NOW LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST...IS CONTINUING TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH WEAKENING VERY
SLOWLY...AND HRRR BEST REPRESENTS LATEST TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO BREAK DOWN AS DEBBY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS
TO EASE AND SEAS TO THEN FALL.
WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING STRONGER THAN CURRENT PROGS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS ATTM...SO HAVE ENHANCED
BOTH...AND EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ256 AND AMZ254
UNTIL 8PM. AS WINDS DECAY TONIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL SLOWLY...BECOMING
2-4 FT OVERNIGHT WITH N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBBY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS COMING AROUND ON THURS AS BERMUDA HIGH
TAKES HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
THURS WILL BACK AROUND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRI AND
INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM DEBBY WILL
SUBSIDE LEAVING SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT OVER MOST WATERS BY LATE
THURS INTO FRI. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF DEBBY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY CHANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DEBBY REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE FARTHER AWAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL WILL SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE MORE W-SW BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN EVENING
AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AND BACKS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW/SGL
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BRINGING POSSIBLE RECORD
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY POSITIONED
WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE LAND MASS HOWEVER...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA SO
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TODAY. FORECAST PWATS
HOVER AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...AND
COMBINE THIS WITH TEMPS REACHING ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S DUE TO
COOL NE FLOW...TODAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE SPRING THAN EARLY
SUMMER.
THE ONLY CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND GUSTY MORNING WINDS NEAR THE
COAST ON UPWIND SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST
FROM TD DEBBY. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...SO WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST WILL WANE
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING EAST LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST WEST OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHT
WARM-SHIFT IS NOTED DUE TO SOME WEAK WAA WHICH WILL KEEP MINS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. EXPECT THIS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD...SO FOR PERSISTENCE WILL SHOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD MINS RIGHT AROUND 60...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE
COOLEST POCOSIN SWAMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEBBY SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE RUNNING UP THE MID WEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS BUILDING EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP
AROUND 595 DEM OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI WITH 850 TEMPS
REACHING UP CLOSE TO 24C...PRODUCING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR
THIS SUMMER...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORD VALUES. AFTER A COOL START THURS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN
CLOSER TO 60...A HUGE DIURNAL SWING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 90S BY AFTN. A RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP AT THE
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL RISE A GOOD 15
DEGREES FROM EARLY THURS TO LATE FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST AREAS WILL
MOST LIKELY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
ABOVE 100...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS
BUT WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH EVIDENT INLAND EACH DAY AND SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE VERY
LOW LEVELS TO SEE A FEW CU AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE AS BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EVIDENT EACH AFTERNOON OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 25 C
AND 850 TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMEST DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING ABOVE 100.
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASING WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN ENHANCING THE HEAT. WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL ALSO
RISE INTO THE MID 70S AND CLOSE TO 80 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES
AND CLOSER TO 110 FURTHER INLAND. SOME PLACES MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES AS SEA BREEZE CARRIES IN HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. SHOULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN AT BAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. IF ANY CLOUDS OR SHWRS DO DEVELOP IT WILL
TAKE PLACE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE. TOWARDS SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL DECREASE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MORNING. AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...CURRENT WIND AND SEAS MATCH ONGOING
FORECAST...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT SLOWLY
EASING WINDS AND SEAS AS INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS TODAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM BELOW:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS INLAND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. OF MORE IMPORTANCE TO OUR WEATHER IS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WELL NORTHEAST OF DEBBY ALONG THE GULF
STREAM AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. AMONG OUR SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THE GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CONDITIONS BEST
AND THESE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 9 AM WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS AND 6+ FOOT SEAS EXPECTED AWAY FROM SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN NEARSHORE AT TIMES. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON... AND I HAVE TENTATIVELY FORECAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO END BY 5 PM. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A LAND BREEZE SPREADS
OFFSHORE.
SEAS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND MAY BUILD TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE 6-7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME 8-9
FOOT SEAS COULD EVEN DEVELOP EAST OF WINYAH BAY WHERE A PARTICULARLY
LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR 12-18 HOURS. ONCE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEA HEIGHTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBBY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS COMING AROUND ON THURS AS BERMUDA HIGH
TAKES HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
THURS WILL BACK AROUND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRI AND
INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM DEBBY WILL
SUBSIDE LEAVING SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT OVER MOST WATERS BY LATE
THURS INTO FRI. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF DEBBY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY CHANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DEBBY REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE FARTHER AWAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL WILL SEE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE MORE W-SW BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN EVENING
AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AND BACKS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1204 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF
THIS CWA...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS. THAT
SAID...A MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH FRONTOGENISIS AT H85 HAS
RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
VERY LITTLE PCPN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. WILL TOSS IN
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN POSTED BELOW...
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS JUST CROSSING THE MISSOURI RIVER AS KMBG HAS
RECENTLY TURNED TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S VS THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD
OF IT. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ACCAS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND RECENTLY ISO
THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. THERE IS AN
OMEGA BULLSEYE AT 700 MB IN THIS REGION WITH A WEAK VORT MAXIMA.
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA UP THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING AND WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. 00Z NAM TRIED TO
SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT 06Z RUN BACKED OFF. HRRR ALSO SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. IT
WILL STILL TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TO SCOUR OUT THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BUT WILL SEE A DECENT FALL IN
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL ACTUALLY GET
RATHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY WITH READINGS AROUND 20
PERCENT. WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST FUELS STATUS UPDATE DOES STILL INDICATE A NO
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE ZONES...BUT THIS WAS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET...WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...WEAK SFC LOW KICKS OUT ACROSS SD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND MAY EVEN EXPAND NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS THAT THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE
STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RIDGE RIDER SHORT WAVES COULD
PROVIDE FOR SURPRISE CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME. THAT SAID
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD INDICATION BY THE GFS/ECMWF THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE RIDGE. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION CHANCES BECOME
MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS. GIVEN THE FORECAST HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT...SUSPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITION EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS PASSING THOUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ODD LIGHTNING STRIKE
AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS...WHICH WILL BE LOCALIZED TO THE STRONGEST
CELLS. PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1206 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND
FIELDS A BIT AND FROM THE EAST AROUND 15Z TOMORROW. NO OTHER
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
UPDATE...
15Z DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAV AND MET BUT
CLOSER TO MET SO AUGMENTED TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT DRYING. MODELS
TRY TO RECOVER MOISTURE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY BUT WITH
THE UL HIGH INCHING CLOSER AND THE SFC HIGH INHIBITING ANY SORT OF
WIND FIELD...CANNOT REASON AS TO WHY WE WOULD RECOVER.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ENHANCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THAT AREA BUT RUC AND NAM DO NOT INCREASE OUR
GRADIENT THIS FAR SOUTH. ALSO RAISED MIN T GRID A DEGREE DUE TO
LATEST MODEL WARMING BUT STILL BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12 TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WX THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
HEAT WAVE AND DROUGHT WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
SHORT TERM...IT`S HARD TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE WEATHER THIS
MORNING, AS LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO SINK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE SUN TOPS THE HORIZON THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE IN A HURRY.
LOOKS LIKE OUR HUMONGOUS UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BUILD EASTWARD,
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS CENTER OF RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AT
LEAST SIX DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY`S READINGS, ADDING ANOTHER SIX
DEGREES ON THURSDAY, AND ANOTHER THREE DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD, OUR HOTTEST WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, GENERALLY FROM I-65 TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 90S TODAY,
AROUND 100 ON THURSDAY AND AROUND 103 DEGREES ON FRIDAY! THE
NORMALLY-COOLER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL NOT ESCAPE THE HEAT, AS
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE MID 80S TODAY TO THE UPPER 90S
BY FRIDAY.
BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE, CLEAR
SKIES AND A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, WILL ONLY A PIDDLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH NASHVILLE
POISED TO AT LEAST TIE THE OLD RECORD OF 103 DEGREES (SET IN 1952)
AND CROSSVILLE LIKELY TO BREAK THEIR OLD RECORD OF 92 (SET IN
1988).
LONG TERM...IT APPEARED YESTERDAY THAT UPPER FLOW MIGHT BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE MID STATE BY THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME
POINT. HOWEVER, MODELS NOW KEEP HUMONGOUS RIDGE PRETTY MUCH
ANCHORED OVER THE GULF COAST, TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS, HAVE
TRIMMED PRECIP EXPECTATIONS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY THE LATTER PERIODS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
15Z DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAV AND MET BUT
CLOSER TO MET SO AUGMENTED TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT DRYING. MODELS
TRY TO RECOVER MOISTURE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY BUT WITH
THE UL HIGH INCHING CLOSER AND THE SFC HIGH INHIBITING ANY SORT OF
WIND FIELD...CANNOT REASON AS TO WHY WE WOULD RECOVER.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ENHANCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THAT AREA BUT RUC AND NAM DO NOT INCREASE OUR
GRADIENT THIS FAR SOUTH. ALSO RAISED MIN T GRID A DEGREE DUE TO
LATEST MODEL WARMING BUT STILL BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12 TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WX THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
.HEAT WAVE AND DROUGHT WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
SHORT TERM...IT`S HARD TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE WEATHER THIS
MORNING, AS LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO SINK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE SUN TOPS THE HORIZON THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE IN A HURRY.
LOOKS LIKE OUR HUMONGOUS UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BUILD EASTWARD,
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS CENTER OF RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AT
LEAST SIX DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY`S READINGS, ADDING ANOTHER SIX
DEGREES ON THURSDAY, AND ANOTHER THREE DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD, OUR HOTTEST WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, GENERALLY FROM I-65 TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 90S TODAY,
AROUND 100 ON THURSDAY AND AROUND 103 DEGREES ON FRIDAY! THE
NORMALLY-COOLER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL NOT ESCAPE THE HEAT, AS
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE MID 80S TODAY TO THE UPPER 90S
BY FRIDAY.
BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE, CLEAR
SKIES AND A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, WILL ONLY A PIDDLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH NASHVILLE
POISED TO AT LEAST TIE THE OLD RECORD OF 103 DEGREES (SET IN 1952)
AND CROSSVILLE LIKELY TO BREAK THEIR OLD RECORD OF 92 (SET IN
1988).
LONG TERM...IT APPEARED YESTERDAY THAT UPPER FLOW MIGHT BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE MID STATE BY THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME
POINT. HOWEVER, MODELS NOW KEEP HUMONGOUS RIDGE PRETTY MUCH
ANCHORED OVER THE GULF COAST, TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS, HAVE
TRIMMED PRECIP EXPECTATIONS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY THE LATTER PERIODS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1049 AM PDT Wed Jun 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A more seasonable weather pattern is expected through the middle
of next week. Drier and warmer weather will move into the area for
the rest of the work week. Then a system will move in this weekend
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Inland
Northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A quick update to remove fog and showers from the forecast through
the rest of the morning. The HRRR model continues to show some
light convective shower activity across the northern mountains;
however, it looks as if this model is overdoing the moisture a bit
at lower levels. Both the NAM and the GFS show a drier sounding
with decreasing dew point temperatures through this afternoon.
A drier solution seems to make better sense behind the exiting
system that moved through yesterday. We will continue to see some
flat cumulus developing through the day across the northern
mountains, Spokane Area, Palouse and over the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures look to be on track; although they looked a touch too
cool across northern Idaho per latest model guidance, thus I
increased highs by a degree or two at Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry.
/SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Shallow cumulus developing this morning around the KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE and KPUW taf sites may result in brief MVFR cigs at
around 3 kft through 19z. We will then see these cigs rise through
the afternoon as the surface warms with VFR conditions expected at
all taf sites through 18z Thursday. Cumulus cloud cover will
diminish after 00z as we dry out low and mid levels this afternoon.
We may see some low stratus or fog developing tonight in the
northern valleys, but this will be less widespread than this morning
due to the drier boundary layer conditions. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 70 50 79 54 76 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 68 46 80 54 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Pullman 70 43 77 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
Lewiston 78 53 85 60 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
Colville 71 47 81 52 80 53 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Sandpoint 65 39 80 52 76 51 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Kellogg 67 45 81 51 74 52 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Moses Lake 75 48 85 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Wenatchee 75 54 82 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Omak 75 46 83 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
959 AM PDT Wed Jun 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A more seasonable weather pattern is expected through the middle
of next week. Drier and warmer weather will move into the area for
the rest of the work week. Then a system will move in this weekend
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A quick update to remove fog and showers from the forecast through
the rest of the morning. The HRRR model continues to show some
light convective shower activity across the northern mountains;
however, it looks as if this model is overdoing the moisture a bit
at lower levels. Both the NAM and the GFS show a drier sounding
with decreasing dew point temperatures through this afternoon.
A drier solution seems to make better sense behind the exiting
system that moved through yesterday. We will continue to see some
flat cumulus developing through the day across the northern
mountains, Spokane Area, Palouse and over the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures
look to be on track; although they looked a touch too cool across
northern Idaho per latest model guidance, thus I increased highs
by a degree or two at Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: Abundant low level moisture across NE Washington and N
Idaho will result in areas of stratus and MVFR CIGS through 18z. As
of 11z MVFR CIGS have been confined north of the KGEG-KCOE corridor
and with model trends showing drying in the boundary layer 15-18z
opted to leave CIGS as VFR for all TAF sites. Fog product satellite
at 11z indicated patchy fog east of KLWS so indicated BCFG in the
TAF. As a short wave ridge builds in today look for gradually
rising CIGS with cumulus dissipating between 0-6z due to mid level
drying and stabilizing lower levels. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 70 50 79 54 76 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 68 46 80 54 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Pullman 70 43 77 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
Lewiston 78 53 85 60 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
Colville 71 47 81 52 80 53 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Sandpoint 65 39 80 52 76 51 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Kellogg 67 45 81 51 74 52 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
Moses Lake 75 48 85 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Wenatchee 75 54 82 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Omak 75 46 83 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON HEAT THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS
ALSO SEEN EXTEND AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE FROM THE BAJA INTO
THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL NEB. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING UNDER THE RIDGE WAS PRODUCING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3 PM RANGED FROM 84 DEGREES AT
MEDFORD WI...TO AS HIGH AS 95 DEGREES AT BOSCOBEL WI. HEAT INDICES
RANGED FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS ACROSS THIS
AREA...WHICH WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING THE COLD FRONT
OVER WESTERN MN MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WI THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHEAST IA BY 12Z. A BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION/ACCAS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS MOISTURE
POOLS ALONG THE FRONT. BUFKIT SHOWS THE BASE OF THIS CLOUD TO BE
ABOVE 12KFT WITH A RATHER STOUT CAP REMAINING IN PLACE AROUND 800MB.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SHRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN VIRGA
FORM...EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. NONETHELESS A FEW
MEASURABLE SHRA COULD REACH THE GROUND. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA/TS THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONLY COOL INTO THE 70S.
FOR THURSDAY...APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH
AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST WI BY AFTERNOON. NAM 0-1KM
MLCAPE PUSHING INTO THE 3500-5000J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AROUND 30KT OF 0-3KM BULK SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...BUFKIT SHOWING A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. IF THE CAP CAN BE WEAKENED...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI/NORTHEAST IA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM MAUSTON WI THROUGH PRAIRIE DU CHIEN. SINCE THERE IS
ALREADY A HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TIL 8
PM THIS EVENING...WILL LET THAT HEADLINE EXPIRE AND ASSESS WHAT AREA
NEEDS TO BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT RICHLAND/CRAWFORD/GRANT COUNTIES WILL NEED AN ADVISORY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS THIS EVENING AND HAVE NEW HEADLINE OUT BY 10 PM
NEWS TIME.
APPEARS THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL TO IT. A
COUPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY
FOR PERIODIC SHRA/TS CHANCES. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND IN THE MID 80S/FEW LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATE OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR DRY CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH KRST NEAR 08-09Z AND KLSE 10-11Z.
MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN SOME SUB VFR
CIGS...WHICH SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SOME 2500-3000 CLOUDS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY EVIDENCED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS...BUT
TRENDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AREA. WILL OPT TO STAY WITH SOME SCT035
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HIGHER MID LEVEL CLOUDS MORE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. ALSO...THE HRRR POINTS TO SOME -SHRA
POSSIBILITIES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. CHANCES ARE
TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
319 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032-033-041.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1106 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
.UPDATE...
GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE USHERING HOT AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ALREADY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO STAY ON TRACK UP TO THE LOW/MID 90S BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THE 50S...AND THEREFORE CAUSE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE 22 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90 TO 96
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA OF 100 FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
THAT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THURSDAY. A LONG AND NARROW PLUME
OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS UP THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...APPARENT BY SHADING THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN
65 DEGREES...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS ON
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOWER DEWPOINT
TEMPS...SOME OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE
DAY ON THU.
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS 65 TO 71
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES
BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI
ON THU. THEREFORE...ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE CWA DURING
VALID FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 17KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 TO 25KT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING MADISON WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS STRONGER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HOT IN THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY AND MID/UPPER
90S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THU OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A VERY WARM AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SUBSEQUENT WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. GIVEN THE BORDERLINE SCENARIO AND
LAKE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE LAND TEMPERATURES HAVING A
STABILIZING EFFECT...DID NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 27 MPH WILL
BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
WEST OF MADISON. DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 21 TO 28 PERCENT RANGE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN TODAY. THE RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT LATE TONIGHT. STRONG 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 18
CELSIUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
A 50 KNOT 850 KNOT WIND MAX MOVES FROM WESTERN IOWA WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER RH VALUES ARE STILL
RATHER LOW...SO LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER THE
STRONG CAP AROUND 7 THSD FT. WHILE THE 850 MB WIND MAX
WEAKENS...THE VERY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 29C JUST WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY EVENING...BUT REMAIN AROUND 22C ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 30 CELSIUS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. BREEZY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 28C ON THE NAM
BY LATE AFTERNOON...YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. SOME UPPER
90S ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND SOUTH OF MADISON.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW TODAY...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE GRASS AND
OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO
THE DRIER DEWPOINTS...NO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TODAY.
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 32 CELSIUS BY MIDNIGHT...SO A
VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THURSDAY FORECAST. STILL LOOKS QUITE
HOT...WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...MAYBE 100
TOWARD ILLINOIS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN...WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING DECENT
SATURATION AROUND 500 MB...SO GOOD CHANCE FOR DECK OF AT LEAST
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. THINKING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH FOR THE ANTICIPATED HOT TEMPS. WITH DEWPOINTS
CREEPING UP TO AROUND 70...STILL THINKING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT TOO EXCITED
ABOUT CHANCES THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY A BIT STRONGER WITH CAP
THAN THEY WERE A DAY AGO. STILL A TON OF CAPE IN SOUNDINGS...THOUGH
PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE WITH NAM/GFS DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY IF THE FORECAST
STAYS ON TRACK. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FOR NOW THOUGH DUE TO SOME
CLOUD/PRECIP UNCERTAINTIES...ALONG WITH FRONT TIMING AND LOWERING
925 MB TEMPS FROM THE NW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH LIKELY NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THURSDAY. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE REGION...KICKING OFF
SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN ANY ONE PERIOD FOR
PRECIP...BUT AT LEAST SOMETHING TO HOPE FOR GIVEN VERY DRY
CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
LOOKS DRY AND CONTINUED WARM MONDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS. GFS DIGS A TROUGH IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SLIDES THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD WITH CONTINUED DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...SUGGESTING HIGHS REMAINING AROUND
90...ALONG WITH SOME LOW POPS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
CURRENT RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS AT
1 THSD FT BY SUNRISE AT MADISON...SO SOME WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD BE MARGINAL. THE 1 THSD FT WINDS ARE WEAKER
TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 22 TO
25KT EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING MADISON.
MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A
VERY WARM AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE SCENARIO AND LAKE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE LAND
TEMPERATURES HAVING A STABILIZING EFFECT...DID NOT ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE.
FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
WEST OF MADISON. DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 21 TO 28 PERCENT RANGE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
GRASS AND OTHER VEGETATION BEING DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV