Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/26/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
250 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH A HIGH OF 101 AT KDEN
AS OF 2 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GFS AND HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FORM
OVER THE PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PARK COUNTY TO DENVER NORTHEAST
TO STERLING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS FOR
MONDAY. RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 100 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY BREAK IT
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A HIGH IN THE LOW 100S LIKELY. WITH THE DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY. WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
.FIRE WEATHER...RADAR SHOWING WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND DO NOT
THINK ANY RAINFALL HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET. HAVE HAD 10-15 CLOUD
TO GROUND STRIKES SO FAR AND WOULD EXPECT MORE AS THE DAY
PROGRESS...THUS WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
EXPECT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
ACROSS THE EASTERN...HOT..VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR MONDAY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MDLS DO
ENTRAIN SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WISE...PERSISTENCE THE
RULE WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES SO SHUD TIE OR
BREAK OUR STREAK IN DENVER OF 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR OVER 100
DEGREES. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND BECOMES
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...SO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A BIT MORE
WESTERLY. AS A RESULT...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME MORE
WEST TO EAST...SO WL CARRY THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ONTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. INTERATIVE SOUNDINGS DO NOT GENERATE ANY
CAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVNG...BUT IT CLIMBS TO AROUND 600-700 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 03Z MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER MAY BE NECESSARY ON TUESDAY...WITH A THE PRESENCE OF A BIT
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAY HIT THE
DENVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE DIRECTION TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
PLAINS MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KAPA AND KDEN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAINFALL AT MOST IS EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ211>213-
215-217-218-241-244>251.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
952 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.UPDATE...VERY WARM MORNING WITH A LOW AT THE DENVER AIRPORT OF 68
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH
DENVER HITTING 91 DEGREES BY 930 AM. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT COOLER
TODAY...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 100S.
HOWEVER...THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
SO IT APPEARS THAT 100-105 WILL BE WIDESPREAD TODAY. MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH IN DENVER THIS
MORNING. STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE IT WILL BE EASIER TO BREAK THE CAP.
WHAT RAIN THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION...WHICH SUPPORTS THE LOW POPS
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY
LIGHTNING. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS A CELL POPPING UP IN WASHINGTON
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE...WILL ADD 10 POPS
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAY HIT THE DENVER AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
WINDS...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS THRU TONIGHT WITH SSW FLOW MID LVL FLOW. WATER VAPOR
DOES SHOWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NRN CO
AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500 MB WITH LIMITED CAPES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
BUT LITTLE RAINFALL DUE TO LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE HIGHER CAPES MAINLY NR
THE CO-NE BORDER HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY AFTN TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY BASED ON
LATEST DATA LOOK ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT OVER NERN CO
AS READINGS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK. RECORD AT
DENVER IS 100 SO THIS COULD BE TIED OR BKN THIS AFTN. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS THIS AFTN BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME LINGERING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER NERN CO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD HI BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS EVENING. BEST CHC OF RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE NR THE WY- NE BORDER AREA WHERE BETTER LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO
CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH EARLY MONSOON
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE STATE. QPF FIELDS FROM
THE MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. WE MAY END UP SEEING EPISODES OF DRY
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXACERBATE
THE ALREADY VOLATILE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH. MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOWS TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT THAT TIME. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE STATE
AND WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WHICH SOME
MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THAT TRACK
WOULD ALSO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO
COLORADO.
AVIATION...WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS THE RUC AND HRRR THRU
THIS AFTN. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT SSW AND THEN
BECOME MORE ENE BY EARLY AFTN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. FOR THIS
EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTM FM 23Z-02Z. WITH LARGE T-TD
SPREADS GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH COULD OCCUR IF A STORM MOVED OVER THE
AIRPORT. WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY TRENDS TOWARD
DRAINAGE BY 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH
LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH
STORMS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL WINDS TODAY WILL
BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
HYDROLOGY...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
248 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS THRU TONIGHT WITH SSW FLOW MID LVL FLOW. WATER VAPOR
DOES SHOWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NRN CO
AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500 MB WITH LIMITED CAPES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
BUT LITTLE RAINFALL DUE TO LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE HIGHER CAPES MAINLY NR
THE CO-NE BORDER HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY AFTN TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY BASED ON
LATEST DATA LOOK ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT OVER NERN CO
AS READINGS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK. RECORD AT
DENVER IS 100 SO THIS COULD BE TIED OR BKN THIS AFTN. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN CLOULD DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS THIS AFTN BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME LINGERING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER NERN CO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD HI BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS EVENING. BEST CHC OF RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE NR THE WY- NE BORDER AREA WHERE BETTER LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
.LONG TERM...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO
CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH EARLY MONSOON
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE STATE. QPF FIELDS FROM
THE MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. WE MAY END UP SEEING EPISODES OF DRY
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXACERBATE
THE ALREADY VOLITILE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH. MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOWS TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT THAT TIME. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE STATE
AND WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WHICH SOME
MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THAT TRACK
WOULD ALSO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO
COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS THE RUC AND HRRR THRU
THIS AFTN. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT SSW AND THEN
BECOME MORE ENE BY EARLY AFTN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. FOR THIS
EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTM FM 23Z-02Z. WITH LARGE T-TD
SPREADS GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH COULD OCCUR IF A STORM MOVED OVER THE
AIRPORT. WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY TRENDS TOWARD
DRAINAGE BY 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH
LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH
STORMS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL WINDS TODAY WILL
BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ211>218.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN NORTH GA BETWEEN RYY AND GVL AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM EDT. THE COLD FRONT WITH
DRIER AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO EXTREME NORTH GA AND SHOULD MOVE TO
SOUTH OF ATL BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF A CSG-MCN-AGS LINE AS THE RAIN SHIELD FROM T.S. DEBBY ROTATES OVER
NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS RATIONALE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
..ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM
DEBBY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTER PORTION OF MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER OF DEBBY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CSG TO VDI. THIS HAS
RESULTED ON BEST PRESSURE AND WIND GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TO THE NORTH...STILL SEEING
STRONGER NORTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH
AND HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS
PRECIP...AREA OF MOISTURE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTER BANDS
FROM DEBBY HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BUT SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A
LACK OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY.
LATEST RAP MIXED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE EVEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. BETTER VALUES TO THE NORTH BUT DRY
AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. STILL
HAVE CAPES OF 2500 J/KG SO NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON AREA YET AND
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTH.
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIRECTION WITH
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THE MOST
LIKELY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE WITH
THE GFS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. EFFECTS
LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION ON THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE STORM. COULD SEE SOME OUTER BANDS ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MID WEEK.
DEESE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE NHC STILL KEEPING DEBBY IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF THE STORM DECIDES TO TAKE A FASTER
TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ON
SHORE THURSDAY AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ON THE EASTERN
SIDE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND END POPS
RELATED TO DEBBY BY THURSDAY.
BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WOULD PROVIDE
HOT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH
DEBBY AND DOESNT START BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 90S BUT IF DEBBY
MOVES OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
11
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO LIMIT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS WERE JUST NORTHEAST
OF RYY AND MAY AFFECT THAT TAF SITE BY 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE AFFECTS
OF T.S. DEBBY WILL BE PRIMARILY A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND AN EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE CSG AND MCN SINCE DEBBY WILL BE CLOSER. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS ON TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 89 60 92 / 20 10 10 10
ATLANTA 70 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 85 56 86 / 10 10 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 65 90 58 91 / 10 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 73 93 69 92 / 20 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 67 87 62 88 / 20 10 5 10
MACON 73 93 64 92 / 30 20 10 20
ROME 66 92 58 92 / 10 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 90 59 88 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 74 89 70 90 / 40 50 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
800 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM
DEBBY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTER PORTION OF MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER OF DEBBY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CSG TO VDI. THIS HAS
RESULTED ON BEST PRESSURE AND WIND GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TO THE NORTH...STILL SEEING
STRONGER NORTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH
AND HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS
PRECIP...AREA OF MOISTURE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTER BANDS
FROM DEBBY HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BUT SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A
LACK OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY.
LATEST RAP MIXED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE EVEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. BETTER VALUES TO THE NORTH BUT DRY
AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. STILL
HAVE CAPES OF 2500 J/KG SO NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON AREA YET AND
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTH.
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIRECTION WITH
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THE MOST
LIKELY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE WITH
THE GFS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. EFFECTS
LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION ON THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE STORM. COULD SEE SOME OUTER BANDS ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MID WEEK.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE NHC STILL KEEPING DEBBY IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF THE STORM DECIDES TO TAKE A FASTER
TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ON
SHORE THURSDAY AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ON THE EASTERN
SIDE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND END POPS
RELATED TO DEBBY BY THURSDAY.
BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WOULD PROVIDE
HOT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH
DEBBY AND DOESNT START BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 90S BUT IF DEBBY
MOVES OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO LIMIT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS WERE JUST NORTHEAST
OF RYY AND MAY AFFECT THAT TAF SITE BY 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE AFFECTS
OF T.S. DEBBY WILL BE PRIMARILY A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND AN EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE CSG AND MCN SINCE DEBBY WILL BE CLOSER. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS ON TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 89 60 92 / 20 10 10 10
ATLANTA 70 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 85 56 86 / 10 10 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 65 90 58 91 / 10 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 73 93 69 92 / 20 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 67 87 62 88 / 20 10 5 10
MACON 73 93 64 92 / 30 20 10 20
ROME 66 92 58 92 / 10 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 90 59 88 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 74 89 70 90 / 70 50 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
900 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS UPDATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN ON THE HEAT.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. FLAT RIDGE
FRIDAY BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE.
850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE
100-115 DEGREE RANGE (COOLEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND HOTTEST
IN THE HILL CITY AREA). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SOUTHERLY WIND (NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WARMING) MAY
NEGATE FULL 850MB MIXING THUS WENT AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE HILL CITY
AREA...MID 90S TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
DID MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA.
700MB TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY BE TOO HOT FOR ANYTHING TO POP OR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR KMCK AROUND SUNRISE. HIGHER DEW POINTS PERSIST NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH VFR AT
ALL TIMES EXPECTED AT KGLD UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY. AT LEAST TWO
FIRE PLUMES WERE IDENTIFIABLE ON KGLD RADAR EARLIER TODAY...ONE IN
THOMAS COUNTY AND ANOTHER IN DUNDY COUNTY...NOT TO MENTION THE
FIRE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST CHANCE COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO
OBVIOUSLY FUELS ARE THERE AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE MET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...024
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN ON THE HEAT.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. FLAT RIDGE
FRIDAY BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE.
850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE
100-115 DEGREE RANGE (COOLEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND HOTTEST
IN THE HILL CITY AREA). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SOUTHERLY WIND (NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WARMING) MAY
NEGATE FULL 850MB MIXING THUS WENT AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE HILL CITY
AREA...MID 90S TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
DID MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA.
700MB TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY BE TOO HOT FOR ANYTHING TO POP OR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR KMCK AROUND SUNRISE. HIGHER DEW POINTS PERSIST NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH VFR AT
ALL TIMES EXPECTED AT KGLD UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES
5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK
HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITERIA.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5
PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 5 PERCENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING HAVE NOW MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (OFB) HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OSAGE COUNTY...THEN NORTHWARD TO EAST OF MARYSVILLE. NORTHEAST OF
THIS OFB...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. WHILE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE OFB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KS. THOUGH
THE HRRR AND ARW DID SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
ALONG THE NE BORDER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OFB ALONG THE NE BORDER. I
INSERTED 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS BROWN...NEMAHA...JACKSON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN CASE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE TO
THE KS BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO
THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE C RANGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 102 TO 104
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ATTM...I ONLY HAVE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 103
DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...THEN HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GARGAN
LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT.
...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN EXPECTED TO FORCE A HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ANY MODIFYING OR COOLING INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE MODEST WITH EAST WINDS MON INTO TUES YET HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH MON/TUES. WIDE SPREAD OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MON/TUES AND PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN COOL BIAS OF GFS BASED NUMBERS.
HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDS INTO THURS AS UPPER
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND
100 AND PERHAPS 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA
WITH AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE THE TAFS. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
DOMINATE...THOUGH DIRECTION A BIT MORE SSE TO START AND LIKELY
MORE SSW IN MUCH OF THE MIDDLE HOURS WHEN SOME MINOR GUSTS COULD
OCCUR...BUT MODERATE DUE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SUFFICE.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 2205L: FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS LIFTING N AND E ACROSS THE FA
ATTM... SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS OUR SWRN AREA ATTM
BUT EXPECT THINGS TO FILL BACK IN LATER TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN AREAS LATE TNGT AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE REGION ON TUE... ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT CONDS...
UPDATE 1800L: AREA OF RAIN W/ SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION ON THE
FRONT SIDE LIFTING NNE ACROSS OUR WRN AND SWRN AREAS ATTM...
ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT LATEST TRENDS - REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS FINE.
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS
HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN
MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY
RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM
WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND
SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER
COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW
COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING
AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM IN A LONG
TRAJECTORY FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN EAST AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGING ON HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
KATAHDIN REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL. THE WARM OCCLUSION AND ASSOCIATED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER MAINE BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL...AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM RECENT STORMS
COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
EXISTING FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS E XPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN EMERGES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
LIFT HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ZONES
FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE LOW 80S.. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AVOIDING INSTABILITY
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: IFR WILL THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR ALL TERMINALS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND BHB TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...IF NOT VFR...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE TEMPO IFR. IFR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES
COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW.
SHORT TERM: SCA MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WAVE HTS WILL STAY NEAR 4 FT IN A SE SWELL MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE 2210L: FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS DROPPED RADAR ESTIMATES OF .5
TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL AREAS OF OUR FA INCLUDING
BROWNVILLE. THIS AREA HAS WORKED MOSTLY N AND E OF THIS AREA SO
THERE WILL BE A BIT A BREAK UNTIL LATE TNGT WHEN EXPECT PRECIP TO
REDEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE EVE.
FLOOD WRNG FOR THIS AREA IN EFFECT UNTIL MID TUE AFTN...
COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW
RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY
DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO
THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN
GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-
015-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
341 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDST OF AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH
TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
PLUME OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA,
BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
IN PLACE. UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO, BRINGING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE
THE GREATER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MODERATE SHEAR AND FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST AN ISOLATED
ONE AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IF ANY
STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE.
CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AT LEAST
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS
FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS ECMWF/GFS/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER VORTEX ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH OVER WISCONSIN WILL ALLOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY BOTH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND THE EAST
SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
COOLING TO 6-9C. WITH THIS IN MIND, MONDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS, AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP BY A FEW
DEGREES AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RECOVER WITH THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT EACH NIGHT, BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES COULD DROP TO NEAR 40 MONDAY
NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWING
THE UPPER LOW PULLING FURTHER NORTHEAST, DEEP RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A SURFACE HIGH BECOMING
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH 850 TEMPS RECOVERING TO 12-15C. WITH THIS IN MIND,
FORECAST HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN
RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW/FLAT
RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OF
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS...AS COMPARED TO HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
03Z-09Z. FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
AREAS OF MORNING FOG. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
INCREASE SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA AND A DEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA, BRINGING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE, A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH AROUND 30 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE. UPSTREAM TO
THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
16-17C BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES.
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO, BRINGING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE
THE GREATER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MODERATE SHEAR AND FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST AN ISOLATED
ONE AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IF ANY
STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE. CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, AT LEAST INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS HEADED BACK INTO THE 40S. DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF TO ENTRENCH THIS PATTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
ON SUNDAY NIGHT PARKS ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MODERATION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-WEEK. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY.
LATER IN WEEK...UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO NORTH IN CANADA DEAMPLIFIES
RIDGE. EVEN SO LOW LEVEL WARMTH CONTINUES AND HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING ECMWF TREND OF EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. MAX TEMPERATURES READINGS ON
FRIDAY INTO NEAR OR RECORD TEMPERATURES. PRECIP CHANCE INCREASES TO
AROUND 30/40 PERCENT FRIDAY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
03Z-09Z. FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
AREAS OF MORNING FOG. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1153 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TODAY AND TO WARM UP MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES TODAY.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA AND A DEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA, BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE, A
BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH 25-30
DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE. UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST,
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
16-17C BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES.
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO, BRINGING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY NORTHEAST OF BIGGEST, WHERE
THE GREATER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MODERATE SHEAR AND FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST AN ISOLATED
ONE AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IF ANY
STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE. CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, AT LEAST INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL
BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS HEADED BACK INTO THE 40S. DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF TO ENTRENCH THIS PATTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
ON SUNDAY NIGHT PARKS ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MODERATION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-WEEK. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY.
LATER IN WEEK...UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO NORTH IN CANADA DEAMPLIFIES
RIDGE. EVEN SO LOW LEVEL WARMTH CONTINUES AND HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING ECMWF TREND OF EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. MAX TEMPERATURES READINGS ON
FRIDAY INTO NEAR OR RECORD TEMPERATURES. PRECIP CHANCE INCREASES TO
AROUND 30/40 PERCENT FRIDAY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
03Z-09Z. FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
AREAS OF MORNING FOG. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
713 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING NW WINDS INTO THE ERN
CWA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING HAS DROPPED INLAND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWAT VALUES INTO THE 0.60 INCH TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD STILL ALLOW INLAND MIN READINGS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 12C-14C RANGE...GUIDANCE MAX INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOKED REASONABLE. MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 35
PERCENT. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING
THAT TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS AND
LATEST ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP ON A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE A POCKET
OF H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND BEST FORCING FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING TO THE NORTH WOULD TEND TO A
DRIER FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAIN CORE OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AOA 20C FOR THE WEST AND 17C FOR THE EAST
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD MIX TO ABOUT H8 DURING THE DAY...SO
TEMPS THERE ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF SFC TEMP POTENTIAL. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW STATES WILL TRY TO
ERODE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL VARIABILITY IS STILL A LITTLE HIGH ON THE TIMING OF RIDGE
DEAMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL WAA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEREBY KEEPING THE RIDGE A LITTLE
SHARPER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS AS WELL. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE IN THESE PATTERNS...THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN CONTROL A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE PREDICTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
BELOW 65 ACROSS THE WEST. FARTHER EAST...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THIS PASSAGE THAN THE GFS. COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE
IDEA...WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF APPROACH FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY HAS BECOME A QUESTION WITH TROPICAL STORM
DEBBIE SPINNING IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBBIE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THERE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE GULF AND PREVENT NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE SEEN WITH
THIS FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-CENTRAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAP FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
COOLER AIR LAGS THE FRONT SOMEWHAT...SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER SEVERAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. COOLEST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. THOUGH
WITH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS NOW IN THE 60S...COOLING EFFECT IS
DIMINISHING. RH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UNDER 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE NOT AN ISSUE ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PATTERN BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL AFTER THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND WILL BRING A COUPLE
VERY WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW AS MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH. ONE OF THE
WEAK WAVES QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. ONCE AGAIN...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT STALLS FROM IA TO
IN AND ROBS THE AREA OF ANY CHANCE OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE TRANQUIL
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND SW ON TUESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE ERLY LAKE BREEZE
WIND DEVELOPING AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
JPB
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
SAGINAW BAY BEFORE FROPA SHIFTED ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
ONLY SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN...AND WILL QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS JUST AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES...
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS
FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW
FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN
THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS.
AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH
PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN
OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT
FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW.
NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT
TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ-
GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A
FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE
PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE LOCALLY.
TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN
U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU
FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS.
THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE
BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/.
MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL
TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND
71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE
ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
/68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD.
TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO
NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE
MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS.
PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND
EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL
THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH
COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE
AIRMASS TRANSITIONS.
CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE.
DETAILS:
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT
HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER
SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE
AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA
LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND
THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT
ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF
AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK
OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/
SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID
80S/.
FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S
BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT
DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S
WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL
THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS.
GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL
THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT
WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON.
TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25
KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER.
MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON
LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...JPB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JA
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
JPB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS
FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW
FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN
THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS.
AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH
PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN
OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT
FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW.
NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT
TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ-
GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A
FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE
PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE LOCALLY.
TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN
U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU
FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS.
THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE
BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/.
MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL
TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND
71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE
ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
/68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD.
TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO
NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE
MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS.
PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND
EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL
THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH
COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE
AIRMASS TRANSITIONS.
CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE.
DETAILS:
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT
HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER
SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE
AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA
LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND
THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT
ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF
AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK
OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/
SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID
80S/.
FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S
BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT
DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S
WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL
THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS.
GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL
THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT
WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON.
TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25
KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER.
MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON
LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THRU 00Z: COOL FRONT IS THRU PLN TVC MBL AND NOW APRCHG APN.
EXPECT WSHFT AT APN 19-20Z. MVFR CIGS CONT AT PLN APN AND ARE
THREATENING TVC. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT TVC THRU 20Z. CLDS ARE
DIMINISHING FROM THE N. SO HAVE MVFR CIGS LIFTING BY 20Z AT PLN
APN. CAN SEE NEED FOR EXTENDING THIS TO 21Z AT APN. WINDS ARE WNW
5-10 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED HEATING/THINNING CLDS...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH G20.
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
CIG CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
WIND CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE ON MAGNITUDE/GUSTINESS
TNGT: VFR/CLEARING BY 02Z. THREAT FOR FOG NIL AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN ON GENERALLY NNW WINDS WHICH WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 5 KTS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A FEW STRATOCU/CU DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY.
N WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10G17 KTS. CONFIDENCE HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: JPB
SHORT TERM: HALBLAUB
LONG TERM: ARNOTT
AVIATION: HALBLAUB
MARINE: HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD NRN
LK SUP. SFC-H85 SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT 1.00-1.20 INCHES
/UP TO 140 PCT OF NORMAL/ IN ADVANCE OF ATTENDANT COLD MOVING SEWD
THRU NE MN/NRN LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AND UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 90KT H3 JET MAX HAS
SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SHRA OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS
FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG
STRIKES WITHIN THE PCPN CLUSTERS. BEHIND THE COLD FNT...MUCH DRIER
AIR IS PRESENT AS DIAGNOSED FM THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS NEAR LK
WINNIPEG. THE 00Z PWAT THERE WAS 0.40 INCH...ABOUT 33 PCT OF NORMAL.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING COMBINATION OF INCRSG H925-7 MSTR CNVGC/UPR DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING JET MAX BRINGING
SHRA TO MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UP TO 0.50-0.75
INCH FALLING OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO UPR JET AXIS/SHRTWV TRACK AS
SFC COLD FNT SURGES INTO THE U.P. RECENT RUC RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/LOCATION OF SHRA CLUSTERS...
SO RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT FOR A GUIDE TO SHORT TERM PCPN
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE SFC COLD FNT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES
AND ENDED THE HIER POPS EARLIER.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY BE STILL ONGOING OVER THE SE CWA
THIS MORNING...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR DRYING
UNDER MORE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV WL END
ANY LINGERING PCPN QUICKLY BY MID MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE LO CLDS WL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FROPA...ABSENCE OF ANY LO CLDS UPSTREAM ATTM IS OF SOME CONCERN.
BUT UPSLOPE NLY FLOW INTO THE NRN TIER OF RA MOISTENED AIR COOLER
AIR OVER LK SUP MAY STILL CAUSE LO CLDS...SO HELD ON TO THIS FCST
FOR NOW THRU THE MRNG BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR TRAILING THE FRONT
SURGES IN THIS AFTN AND BRINGS ABOUT INCRSG SUNSHINE. SINCE THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...CUT
FCST HI TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT...DESPITE INCRSG SUNSHINE...
TEMPS NEAR LK SUP MIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH GUSTY N WIND OFF
THE COOL WATERS. THE STEADY NNW WIND IS FCST TO BUILD WAVES AS HI AS
3 TO 5 FT IN THE LK SUP NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN. LOCAL OFFICE
PROCEDURE INDICATES A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E OF MQT THRU
THE MOST EXPOSED BEACHES IN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG.
TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF DOMINATING...SFC HI PRES IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NW WI/WRN UPR MI BY 12Z MON. PWAT IS FCST TO
FALL BLO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE W CLOSER TO THIS SFC HI PRES...
WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LGT. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...TENDED TO GO
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W. EVEN ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. A STEADY NNW FLOW
OVER THE E HALF FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER WL TEND TO RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH IDEA OF
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDGE CURRENTLY
BRINGING HEAT TO SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CORE OF WARMEST AIR NEVER MAKES IT INTO UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EDGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPRESSES THE RIDGE BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH EXTENT OF COOLING IS
IN QUESTION SOME WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. SINCE MAIN BELT OF MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVR CANADA MUCH OF THE WEEK...PATTERN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LAKE BREEZES WILL BE MAIN STORY.
COOLEST READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH GRADIENT
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST
WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
MID 60S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. ELSEWHERE THOUGH GIVEN GOOD
MIXING UP TO H8 PER GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
LOW-MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FCST 50-75 PCT OF
NORMAL SO ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE DECENT IN FAVORED
COLD SPOTS...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS AT OR ABOVE MONDAY AFTN
DWPNT READINGS. RESULT WILL BE LOWS FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN COLD
SPOTS TO MID TO UPR 40S ELSEWHERE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS OVERALL UPPER/SFC PATTERN
IS SLOW TO MOVE WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THANKS TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANAMOLIES OVR WESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AXIS OF
THE HIGH FCST TO SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE PATTERN
FAVORS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY BACKED WINDS/ONSHORE FLOW ON THE KEWEENAW AND
OVR NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN NEAR MARQUETTE. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN
CU WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL REBOUND AS GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG.
EXPECT DAYTIME READINGS NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 80 DEGREES
GIVEN WARMING H85-H8 TEMPS OVER MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR HITTING 80
DEGREES WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WEST IN THE BARAGA PLAINS AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS TO GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EAST TOWARD UPPER LAKES
AND AS SFC-H85 HIGH AXIS MOVES EAST AS WELL PUTTING UPPER LAKES
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. BEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT H85 REMAINS
TO THE WEST OVR DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. SOME HINT AT JET STREAK DIVING FM
ONTARIO INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES ON PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
REALLY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/ SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. TROUBLE IS THAT THE 23 JUNE/12Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS INTO LK SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN AND ACTUALLY
GENERATES BATCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THAT
RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW PRECIP...SO THINKING IS
IT IS A PRETTY LOW CHANCE. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A BIT MORE SKY COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA AND WILL KEEP A SIMILAR IDEA GOING.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER BKN CLOUDS AND SHRA TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE WEST INTERIOR.
ONGOING H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ON
PERIFERY OF RIDGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FM THE SOUTHWEST. EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MOST LIKELY TO SET UP
OVR UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. CONSENSUS SHOWING SMALL CHANCES OVR LK
SUPERIOR SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. A VERY WARM DAY STILL IN THE OFFING FOR
THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF IN SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL TO UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WARM FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH IDEA THAT FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SCNTRL CWA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MIXING
TO H9-H85 SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IF WARMER H85 TEMPS OFF ECWMF /20-22C/ VERIFY. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
NOT QUITE SURE IF SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAKE IT TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE SO
DID NOT BUDGE TEMPS TOO MUCH OFF UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FM ONTONAGON
TO BARAGA AND TO MARQUETTE AS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LIKELY WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LOCATED AND ALSO ON GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE RESERVOIR UP TO 4000J/KG PER GFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...JUST PROBABLY
NOT VERY HIGH OF A CHANCE SINCE STRONGER DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH OF
OVR ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRONGER JET IS FCST AS WELL. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...H85 TEMPS
ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C. INCREASED HIGHS OVER MODEL
CONSENSUS OVR MOST AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OVR SCNTRL AS
COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THERE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...IF ECMWF IS CORRECT UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO TRIES
TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS KEEPS PATTERN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING BY LATE DAY. GIVEN THE
DIFFERNCES...KEPT WITH CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW FOR MOST FCST
ELEMENTS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS SOME FARTHER INLAND AWAY FM ANY LAKE
MODERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM CLOUDS OVER SAW FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR MAYBE
TWO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT N TO NW WINDS
TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. OTHER THAN THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE FIRST 24 HRS...COMBINATION OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGH STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
AOB 20 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE
COOLER LAKE WATERS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE BRIEF AS MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. LATER FCSTS
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA AFFECT THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD NRN
LK SUP. SFC-H85 SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT 1.00-1.20 INCHES
/UP TO 140 PCT OF NORMAL/ IN ADVANCE OF ATTENDANT COLD MOVING SEWD
THRU NE MN/NRN LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AND UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 90KT H3 JET MAX HAS
SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SHRA OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS
FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG
STRIKES WITHIN THE PCPN CLUSTERS. BEHIND THE COLD FNT...MUCH DRIER
AIR IS PRESENT AS DIAGNOSED FM THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS NEAR LK
WINNIPEG. THE 00Z PWAT THERE WAS 0.40 INCH...ABOUT 33 PCT OF NORMAL.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING COMBINATION OF INCRSG H925-7 MSTR CNVGC/UPR DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING JET MAX BRINGING
SHRA TO MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UP TO 0.50-0.75
INCH FALLING OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO UPR JET AXIS/SHRTWV TRACK AS
SFC COLD FNT SURGES INTO THE U.P. RECENT RUC RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/LOCATION OF SHRA CLUSTERS...
SO RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT FOR A GUIDE TO SHORT TERM PCPN
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE SFC COLD FNT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES
AND ENDED THE HIER POPS EARLIER.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY BE STILL ONGOING OVER THE SE CWA
THIS MORNING...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR DRYING
UNDER MORE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV WL END
ANY LINGERING PCPN QUICKLY BY MID MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE LO CLDS WL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FROPA...ABSENCE OF ANY LO CLDS UPSTREAM ATTM IS OF SOME CONCERN.
BUT UPSLOPE NLY FLOW INTO THE NRN TIER OF RA MOISTENED AIR COOLER
AIR OVER LK SUP MAY STILL CAUSE LO CLDS...SO HELD ON TO THIS FCST
FOR NOW THRU THE MRNG BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR TRAILING THE FRONT
SURGES IN THIS AFTN AND BRINGS ABOUT INCRSG SUNSHINE. SINCE THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...CUT
FCST HI TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT...DESPITE INCRSG SUNSHINE...
TEMPS NEAR LK SUP MIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH GUSTY N WIND OFF
THE COOL WATERS. THE STEADY NNW WIND IS FCST TO BUILD WAVES AS HI AS
3 TO 5 FT IN THE LK SUP NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN. LOCAL OFFICE
PROCEDURE INDICATES A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E OF MQT THRU
THE MOST EXPOSED BEACHES IN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG.
TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF DOMINATING...SFC HI PRES IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NW WI/WRN UPR MI BY 12Z MON. PWAT IS FCST TO
FALL BLO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE W CLOSER TO THIS SFC HI PRES...
WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LGT. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...TENDED TO GO
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W. EVEN ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. A STEADY NNW FLOW
OVER THE E HALF FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER WL TEND TO RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH IDEA OF
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDGE CURRENTLY
BRINGING HEAT TO SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CORE OF WARMEST AIR NEVER MAKES IT INTO UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EDGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPRESSES THE RIDGE BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH EXTENT OF COOLING IS
IN QUESTION SOME WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. SINCE MAIN BELT OF MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVR CANADA MUCH OF THE WEEK...PATTERN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LAKE BREEZES WILL BE MAIN STORY.
COOLEST READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH GRADIENT
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST
WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
MID 60S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. ELSEWHERE THOUGH GIVEN GOOD
MIXING UP TO H8 PER GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
LOW-MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FCST 50-75 PCT OF
NORMAL SO ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE DECENT IN FAVORED
COLD SPOTS...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS AT OR ABOVE MONDAY AFTN
DWPNT READINGS. RESULT WILL BE LOWS FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN COLD
SPOTS TO MID TO UPR 40S ELSEWHERE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS OVERALL UPPER/SFC PATTERN
IS SLOW TO MOVE WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THANKS TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANAMOLIES OVR WESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AXIS OF
THE HIGH FCST TO SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE PATTERN
FAVORS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY BACKED WINDS/ONSHORE FLOW ON THE KEWEENAW AND
OVR NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN NEAR MARQUETTE. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN
CU WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL REBOUND AS GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG.
EXPECT DAYTIME READINGS NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 80 DEGREES
GIVEN WARMING H85-H8 TEMPS OVER MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR HITTING 80
DEGREES WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WEST IN THE BARAGA PLAINS AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS TO GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EAST TOWARD UPPER LAKES
AND AS SFC-H85 HIGH AXIS MOVES EAST AS WELL PUTTING UPPER LAKES
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. BEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT H85 REMAINS
TO THE WEST OVR DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. SOME HINT AT JET STREAK DIVING FM
ONTARIO INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES ON PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
REALLY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/ SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. TROUBLE IS THAT THE 23 JUNE/12Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS INTO LK SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN AND ACTUALLY
GENERATES BATCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THAT
RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW PRECIP...SO THINKING IS
IT IS A PRETTY LOW CHANCE. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A BIT MORE SKY COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA AND WILL KEEP A SIMILAR IDEA GOING.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER BKN CLOUDS AND SHRA TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE WEST INTERIOR.
ONGOING H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ON
PERIFERY OF RIDGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FM THE SOUTHWEST. EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MOST LIKELY TO SET UP
OVR UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. CONSENSUS SHOWING SMALL CHANCES OVR LK
SUPERIOR SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. A VERY WARM DAY STILL IN THE OFFING FOR
THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF IN SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL TO UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WARM FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH IDEA THAT FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SCNTRL CWA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MIXING
TO H9-H85 SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IF WARMER H85 TEMPS OFF ECWMF /20-22C/ VERIFY. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
NOT QUITE SURE IF SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAKE IT TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE SO
DID NOT BUDGE TEMPS TOO MUCH OFF UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FM ONTONAGON
TO BARAGA AND TO MARQUETTE AS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LIKELY WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LOCATED AND ALSO ON GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE RESERVOIR UP TO 4000J/KG PER GFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...JUST PROBABLY
NOT VERY HIGH OF A CHANCE SINCE STRONGER DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH OF
OVR ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRONGER JET IS FCST AS WELL. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...H85 TEMPS
ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C. INCREASED HIGHS OVER MODEL
CONSENSUS OVR MOST AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OVR SCNTRL AS
COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THERE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...IF ECMWF IS CORRECT UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO TRIES
TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS KEEPS PATTERN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING BY LATE DAY. GIVEN THE
DIFFERNCES...KEPT WITH CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW FOR MOST FCST
ELEMENTS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS SOME FARTHER INLAND AWAY FM ANY LAKE
MODERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS/FOG MAY LINGER THIS MRNG BEHIND THE COLD FROPA...
EXPECT A STEADY DRYING TREND N-S TO VFR AS HI PRES BLDS TOWARD WRN LK
SUP BY LATE TODAY. THERE WL ALSO BE A STEADY N WIND...STRONGEST AT
THE MORE EXPOSED SAW LOCATION WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL ALSO BE
SHARPEST. WINDS WL TURN LIGHT TNGT WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE HI
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT N TO NW WINDS
TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. OTHER THAN THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE FIRST 24 HRS...COMBINATION OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGH STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
AOB 20 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE
COOLER LAKE WATERS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE BRIEF AS MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. LATER FCSTS
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA AFFECT THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD NRN
LK SUP. SFC-H85 SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT 1.00-1.20 INCHES
/UP TO 140 PCT OF NORMAL/ IN ADVANCE OF ATTENDANT COLD MOVING SEWD
THRU NE MN/NRN LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AND UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 90KT H3 JET MAX HAS
SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SHRA OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS
FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG
STRIKES WITHIN THE PCPN CLUSTERS. BEHIND THE COLD FNT...MUCH DRIER
AIR IS PRESENT AS DIAGNOSED FM THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS NEAR LK
WINNIPEG. THE 00Z PWAT THERE WAS 0.40 INCH...ABOUT 33 PCT OF NORMAL.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING COMBINATION OF INCRSG H925-7 MSTR CNVGC/UPR DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING JET MAX BRINGING
SHRA TO MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UP TO 0.50-0.75
INCH FALLING OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO UPR JET AXIS/SHRTWV TRACK AS
SFC COLD FNT SURGES INTO THE U.P. RECENT RUC RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/LOCATION OF SHRA CLUSTERS...
SO RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT FOR A GUIDE TO SHORT TERM PCPN
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE SFC COLD FNT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES
AND ENDED THE HIER POPS EARLIER.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY BE STILL ONGOING OVER THE SE CWA
THIS MORNING...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR DRYING
UNDER MORE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV WL END
ANY LINGERING PCPN QUICKLY BY MID MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE LO CLDS WL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FROPA...ABSENCE OF ANY LO CLDS UPSTREAM ATTM IS OF SOME CONCERN.
BUT UPSLOPE NLY FLOW INTO THE NRN TIER OF RA MOISTENED AIR COOLER
AIR OVER LK SUP MAY STILL CAUSE LO CLDS...SO HELD ON TO THIS FCST
FOR NOW THRU THE MRNG BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR TRAILING THE FRONT
SURGES IN THIS AFTN AND BRINGS ABOUT INCRSG SUNSHINE. SINCE THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...CUT
FCST HI TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT...DESPITE INCRSG SUNSHINE...
TEMPS NEAR LK SUP MIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH GUSTY N WIND OFF
THE COOL WATERS. THE STEADY NNW WIND IS FCST TO BUILD WAVES AS HI AS
3 TO 5 FT IN THE LK SUP NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN. LOCAL OFFICE
PROCEDURE INDICATES A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E OF MQT THRU
THE MOST EXPOSED BEACHES IN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG.
TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF DOMINATING...SFC HI PRES IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NW WI/WRN UPR MI BY 12Z MON. PWAT IS FCST TO
FALL BLO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE W CLOSER TO THIS SFC HI PRES...
WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LGT. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...TENDED TO GO
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W. EVEN ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. A STEADY NNW FLOW
OVER THE E HALF FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER WL TEND TO RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH IDEA OF
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDGE CURRENTLY
BRINGING HEAT TO SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CORE OF WARMEST AIR NEVER MAKES IT INTO UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EDGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPRESSES THE RIDGE BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH EXTENT OF COOLING IS
IN QUESTION SOME WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. SINCE MAIN BELT OF MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVR CANADA MUCH OF THE WEEK...PATTERN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LAKE BREEZES WILL BE MAIN STORY.
COOLEST READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH GRADIENT
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST
WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
MID 60S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. ELSEWHERE THOUGH GIVEN GOOD
MIXING UP TO H8 PER GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
LOW-MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FCST 50-75 PCT OF
NORMAL SO ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE DECENT IN FAVORED
COLD SPOTS...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS AT OR ABOVE MONDAY AFTN
DWPNT READINGS. RESULT WILL BE LOWS FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN COLD
SPOTS TO MID TO UPR 40S ELSEWHERE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS OVERALL UPPER/SFC PATTERN
IS SLOW TO MOVE WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THANKS TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANAMOLIES OVR WESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AXIS OF
THE HIGH FCST TO SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE PATTERN
FAVORS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY BACKED WINDS/ONSHORE FLOW ON THE KEWEENAW AND
OVR NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN NEAR MARQUETTE. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN
CU WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL REBOUND AS GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG.
EXPECT DAYTIME READINGS NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 80 DEGREES
GIVEN WARMING H85-H8 TEMPS OVER MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR HITTING 80
DEGREES WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WEST IN THE BARAGA PLAINS AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS TO GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EAST TOWARD UPPER LAKES
AND AS SFC-H85 HIGH AXIS MOVES EAST AS WELL PUTTING UPPER LAKES
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. BEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT H85 REMAINS
TO THE WEST OVR DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. SOME HINT AT JET STREAK DIVING FM
ONTARIO INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES ON PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
REALLY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/ SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. TROUBLE IS THAT THE 23 JUNE/12Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS INTO LK SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN AND ACTUALLY
GENERATES BATCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THAT
RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW PRECIP...SO THINKING IS
IT IS A PRETTY LOW CHANCE. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A BIT MORE SKY COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA AND WILL KEEP A SIMILAR IDEA GOING.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER BKN CLOUDS AND SHRA TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE WEST INTERIOR.
ONGOING H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ON
PERIFERY OF RIDGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FM THE SOUTHWEST. EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MOST LIKELY TO SET UP
OVR UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. CONSENSUS SHOWING SMALL CHANCES OVR LK
SUPERIOR SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. A VERY WARM DAY STILL IN THE OFFING FOR
THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF IN SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL TO UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WARM FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH IDEA THAT FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SCNTRL CWA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MIXING
TO H9-H85 SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IF WARMER H85 TEMPS OFF ECWMF /20-22C/ VERIFY. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
NOT QUITE SURE IF SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAKE IT TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE SO
DID NOT BUDGE TEMPS TOO MUCH OFF UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FM ONTONAGON
TO BARAGA AND TO MARQUETTE AS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LIKELY WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LOCATED AND ALSO ON GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE RESERVOIR UP TO 4000J/KG PER GFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...JUST PROBABLY
NOT VERY HIGH OF A CHANCE SINCE STRONGER DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH OF
OVR ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRONGER JET IS FCST AS WELL. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...H85 TEMPS
ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C. INCREASED HIGHS OVER MODEL
CONSENSUS OVR MOST AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OVR SCNTRL AS
COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THERE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...IF ECMWF IS CORRECT UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO TRIES
TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS KEEPS PATTERN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING BY LATE DAY. GIVEN THE
DIFFERNCES...KEPT WITH CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW FOR MOST FCST
ELEMENTS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS SOME FARTHER INLAND AWAY FM ANY LAKE
MODERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE NEXT 6HRS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST
TRENDS IN MODELS AND RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE SHOWERS AND FRONT PASS
THROUGH...EXPECT CIGS TO TREND DOWN TO MVFR VALUES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORN. DID DROP ALL THREE SITES TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LLVL MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THEM REACH IFR. ALSO MENTIONED SOME LOWER
VSBYS AT KCMX DUE TO SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE FOG OF LK SUPERIOR. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT FAIRLY QUICK DRYING...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
CLEARING SKIES BY 15-16Z AT EACH SITE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT N TO NW WINDS
TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. OTHER THAN THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE FIRST 24 HRS...COMBINATION OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGH STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
AOB 20 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE
COOLER LAKE WATERS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE BRIEF AS MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. LATER FCSTS
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA AFFECT THE LAKE. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
612 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MONDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK THEN ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH ANOTHER LEADING BATCH OF RAIN FROM ABOUT
PENN YAN NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY WEST...WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LATER THIS EVENING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTAL FEATURES...WILL CROSS OR APPROACH THE REGION. A PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SHOWERS TOWARD TORONTO...WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SECOND BOUNDARY NEAR THE THUMB OF MI...WITH OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING A THIRD/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SREF DATA HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS A HIGH PROBABILITY...ALONG THE THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWING A CONVECTIVE RESPONSE. HOWEVER...JUST AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BOOST THE PROBABILITY UP A NOTCH AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST GENERALLY AS
IS...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NY AND A HIGHER
PROBABILITY SOUTHEAST AND EAST. WILL FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH
AND DRY THE AREA OUT IN THE WEST A BIT EARLIER THOUGH...WITH A
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 02-04Z.
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND HENCE QPF IS LOW WITH
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LESS THAN THAT
FARTHER WEST...WITH SOME AREAS OF WESTERN NY POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL GOES...IT ALSO LOOKS QUITE
LIMITED...ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...HIGHER CAPE CAN BE FOUND OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AS PER SPC/1HR FORECAST RAP. LATEST 21Z AMDAR
SOUNDING FROM YHM SHOWS A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND HARDLY ANY
CAPE...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700MB. LOCALLY SBCAPE IN OUR
NEIGHBORHOOD REMAINS IN THE 500-800J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SPARSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS SHOWN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER- TURNING...WITH A NOD TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED YHM AMDAR DATA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY
20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 10K FEET. WITH
POOR INSTABILITY AND ONLY A MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NOT TO
MENTION EXPECTED LACK OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ANY SEVERE WX
RISK IS MINIMAL AS NOTED BY 20Z SPC OUTLOOK.
AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER FOR AWHILE...BUT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
ON MONDAY THE DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MID
LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF AND
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ASCENT TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY. OF
GREATER IMPORTANCE...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LATE MORNING ON. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW...WITH LESSER CHANCES
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONLY THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF NY WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BE DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND +6C...WHICH WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN ASSUMING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY WHILE DIMINISHING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT WILL
BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S...AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THE SUITE OF MODELS (CMC/NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ADVANCE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE DRY
AIR TO PASS ACROSS WNY WITH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHED
CHCS FOR SHOWERS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH STILL
COOL AIR ALOFT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST UNDER MORE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
TOUCHING INTO THE 70S...WHILE TO THE EAST MID AND UPPER 60S WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...THOUGH
NOT AS COOL AS THE PRECEDING NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 50S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW SPIRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANY CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE FAR EAST...AND LOW CHCS
AT THIS. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING OMEGA BLOCK...STILL
CENTERED NEAR 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADA MARITIMES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN
CANADA...CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UPON THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGE
AND FORCE SUMMER WARMTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED
SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE RID OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEARING OF A
WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS TO COVER FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FOR NOW. MODELS BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ERASING THE MUGGY AND VERY WARM AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF
TRACK...SATURDAY WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND DRIER.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA A
CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY TOWARDS
THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL BE JUST A LOW CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LINE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD FROM KPEO NORTHEAST...WITH A SECOND LINE NEARING CYYZ
AT 21Z. THIS SECOND LINE...LIKELY THE COLD FRONT...MAY STRETCH AND
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND CLIP PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY
BETWEEN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY SUMMER STANDARDS WILL ENTER THE LOWER
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MONDAY MORNING EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATER IN THE DAY
EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY TO SCATTER OUT AND RETURN
TO VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEN SET
IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ALLOWS AN UNSTABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP...AND A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A LONGER
FETCH ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. ON LAKE ERIE A
SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP WAVES IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
543 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MONDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK THEN ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH ANOTHER LEADING BATCH OF RAIN FROM ABOUT
PENN YAN NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY WEST...WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LATER THIS EVENING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTAL FEATURES...WILL CROSS OR APPROACH THE REGION. A PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SHOWERS TOWARD TORONTO...WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SECOND BOUNDARY NEAR THE THUMB OF MI...WITH OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING A THIRD/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SREF DATA HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS A HIGH PROBABILITY...ALONG THE THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWING A CONVECTIVE RESPONSE. HOWEVER...JUST AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BOOST THE PROBABILITY UP A NOTCH AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST GENERALLY AS
IS...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NY AND A HIGHER
PROBABILITY SOUTHEAST AND EAST. WILL FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH
AND DRY THE AREA OUT IN THE WEST A BIT EARLIER THOUGH...WITH A
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 02-04Z.
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND HENCE QPF IS LOW WITH
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LESS THAN THAT
FARTHER WEST...WITH SOME AREAS OF WESTERN NY POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL GOES...IT ALSO LOOKS QUITE
LIMITED...ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...HIGHER CAPE CAN BE FOUND OVER THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA. SBCAPE IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD REMAINS IN THE
500-800J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SPARSE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS SHOWN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER OVER-TURNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 10K FEET. WITH POOR INSTABILITY AND ONLY A
MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NOT TO MENTION EXPECTED LACK OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ANY SEVERE WX RISK IS MINIMAL AS NOTED BY
20Z SPC OUTLOOK.
AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER FOR AWHILE...BUT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
ON MONDAY THE DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MID
LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF AND
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ASCENT TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY. OF
GREATER IMPORTANCE...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LATE MORNING ON. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW...WITH LESSER CHANCES
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONLY THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF NY WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BE DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND +6C...WHICH WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN ASSUMING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY WHILE DIMINISHING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT WILL
BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S...AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THE SUITE OF MODELS (CMC/NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ADVANCE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE DRY
AIR TO PASS ACROSS WNY WITH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHED
CHCS FOR SHOWERS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH STILL
COOL AIR ALOFT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST UNDER MORE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
TOUCHING INTO THE 70S...WHILE TO THE EAST MID AND UPPER 60S WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...THOUGH
NOT AS COOL AS THE PRECEDING NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 50S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW SPIRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANY CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE FAR EAST...AND LOW CHCS
AT THIS. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING OMEGA BLOCK...STILL
CENTERED NEAR 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADA MARITIMES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN
CANADA...CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UPON THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGE
AND FORCE SUMMER WARMTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED
SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE RID OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEARING OF A
WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS TO COVER FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FOR NOW. MODELS BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ERASING THE MUGGY AND VERY WARM AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF
TRACK...SATURDAY WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND DRIER.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA A
CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY TOWARDS
THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL BE JUST A LOW CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LINE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD FROM KPEO NORTHEAST...WITH A SECOND LINE NEARING CYYZ
AT 21Z. THIS SECOND LINE...LIKELY THE COLD FRONT...MAY STRETCH AND
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND CLIP PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY
BETWEEN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY SUMMER STANDARDS WILL ENTER THE LOWER
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MONDAY MORNING EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATER IN THE DAY
EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY TO SCATTER OUT AND RETURN
TO VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEN SET
IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ALLOWS AN UNSTABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP...AND A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A LONGER
FETCH ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. ON LAKE ERIE A
SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP WAVES IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
907 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING EXCEPTIONALLY
HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM MONDAY...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION WAS GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS NE NC
THIS EVENING. FRACTURED CONVECTION EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC. SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NORTHERN INTERIOR AROUND MIDNIGHT...SINKING SOUTH INTO OUR
SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DIURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WEAKEN THE STORMS AS THEY
REACH OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WX WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING TIME FRAME.
WITH THE FRONT HOWEVER MOVING SOUTH OVER OUR ZONES TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP AT A MINIMUM ISOLATED POP VALUES MOST AREAS...BUT HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL RESIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ONTO SMALL POP FOR THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES TUESDAY WILL BE A
COOLER AND DRIER DAY OVERALL. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND
MULTIPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN THE AREA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
50S...WHILE COASTAL AREAS DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. A WARM-UP IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CLIMO AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY IMPLANTED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. NO POPS
REQUIRED AFTER TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON. OVERALL
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS
THAN AN INCH ON THURS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS DEEPER RETURN FLOW
SETS UP LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH VALUES REACHING BACK AROUND 1.5
INCHES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE MID 50S ON WED UP CLOSER TO 70 BY
THE WEEKEND. A RAPID WARM UP WILL OCCUR AS H5 HEIGHTS REACH UP NEAR
592 DEM BY FRI EVENING. 850 TEMPS SHOW AN INCREASE FROM AROUND 12C
EARLY WED MORNING UP CLOSE TO 25 C BY FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ON FRI AND REMAINING UP AROUND 90 FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND VERY WARM
TEMPS COULD BRING APPARENT TEMPS UP CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD WITH BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEBBY. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REMAIN ON AN E-NE TRACK...IT MAY
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY TRACK A BIT CLOSER
TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES A MOVE. LATEST GFS
SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST NEXT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND SOME PCP POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL KEEP PCP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUN
INTO MON TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCE FROM DEBBY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR LBT AND WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN DIURNALLY BY 01Z. THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING A
FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY 03-4Z. THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT LBT. THIS
LINE WILL LIKELY WANE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD...BUT IT COULD HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH THE AFFECT THE MYRTLES BY 06-07Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT
BRIEFLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SHIFTING AGAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUSTY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. TUESDAY...CONTINUED
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT GRADUALLY
PLOWS SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE INCREASING AND PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT...IN A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTH COAST BY OR
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS. LOOKS AS THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE BEYOND THE
END OF THE PERIOD...LIMITING GUSTINESS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PINCHED
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT
CONTINUING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SEAS WILL BE
HIGHEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH DEBBY.
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS NOW AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL E-NE TRACK...THE
LATEST MODELS HOLDS DEBBY OVER THE GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
FINALLY MAKING A MOVE. THE GFS SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH NEXT SUN INTO MON WHILE THE ECWMF REMAINS SLOWER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INITIALLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN ON THURS WITH BERMUDA HIGH TAKING OVER FRI THROUGH SAT.
THEREFORE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS FRI THROUGH SAT.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 SEAS ON
THURS TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI THROUGH SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DEBBY
MOVES UP THE COAST MAY SEE AN INCREASING SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
805 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN WITH HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTRIBUTES FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATION BEFORE
SUNSET. EXPECT COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 40S
LOWLANDS...AND MID 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
CU ON TUESDAY.
LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...
AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS. FOR TUESDAY...FEEL MAV NUMBERS
ARE TOO COOL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. GENERALLY USED A BLEND
OF MET/MAV NUMBERS...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN BUILDS A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH HEAT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
DRYING AS THE NEED FOR RAIN OVERALL STEADILY CLIMBS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WILL
NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WILL SEE A
STEADY AND EFFICIENT UPTICK IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AS
850MB TEMPERATURES ECLIPSE THE 20C MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN TOASTY...AND PAINT FRIDAY AS THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. TRANSITIONING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WILL SEE THE RIDGE FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT...WITH BETTER
NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
WARRANT THE RETURN OF POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE NOT HAVING TOO
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE HEAT. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
HOURS WITH POPS...SO FIGURE THIS COULD ACCOUNT FOR A COUPLE
DEGREES...AND WILL TREND BACK TO LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AND AROUND THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE RUC AND NAM SHOWING 15
KNOTS...ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG OR MIST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR/F ACROSS
THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WV AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY...FEEL SOME FAIR WEATHER CU ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: KEKN MAY EXPERIENCE LESS FG.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/26/12
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG CHANGES
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH
ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUESTION OF HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
ESE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL BEST MOVE MAY BE
TO CONTINUE TO JUST MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN SMALL CHANCE FOR
HAVING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO AFFECT CIGS AND VSBYS. AMENDMENTS CAN
LATER BE MADE TO BETTER FOCUS ON TAF SITES WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO LOOK MORE POSSIBLE.
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN TAFS
BY LATE EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF FURTHER INLAND SITES BY
ABOUT 08Z. WITH LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAV GUIDANCE
MAINTAINING VFR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR EXCEPT FOR ERI WHERE ADDED
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...TK/REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD HAD
PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH
DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUESTION OF HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
ESE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL BEST MOVE MAY BE
TO CONTINUE TO JUST MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN SMALL CHANCE FOR
HAVING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO AFFECT CIGS AND VSBYS. AMENDMENTS CAN
LATER BE MADE TO BETTER FOCUS ON TAF SITES WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO LOOK MORE POSSIBLE.
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN TAFS
BY LATE EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF FURTHER INLAND SITES BY
ABOUT 08Z. WITH LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAV GUIDANCE
MAINTAINING VFR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR EXCEPT FOR ERI WHERE ADDED
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1004 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. PATCHY CLOUD COVER
HAS DIMINISHED AND THE FEW VERY WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER THE LAKE
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE MAX AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER EXAMINING THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECTING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
EAST END OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING TODAY BUT
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE AREA REMAINS
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN WIND
AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BOWING SEGMENTS.
FORTUNATELY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT GET GOING TILL AFTER MAX
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ENDED. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP TO LIKELY
IN NE OH AND NW PA. PRECIP ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE NO MORE THAN HIT OR MISS. THE FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH SEASONABLE READINGS
RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING THURSDAY UPPER RIDGE BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING CLOSE TO 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AT
LEAST 90 FOR WESTERN AREAS. WHILE STILL LOW AT THIS TIME MODELS
SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MORE THURSDAY NIGHT SO WENT
WITH THE LOWER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THEN.
FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY...SO
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING RIDGE BREAK DOWN AND ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST CHC POPS
FOR SHRA/TS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT THINKING THE FRONT WILL HAVE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THINKING THAT THE WEAK BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIP. MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS AS GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE
TO LEAN COOLER THIS FAR OUT. LIKE THE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS
ALREADY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA GIVES
WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE COLD FRONT
TO CROSS SITES EARLY TONIGHT FROM AROUND 00Z TO 05Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE MENTION OF TEMPO SHRA WITH THE FRONT. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT
ON TIMING AT THIS POINT OF TSRA ACTUALLY IMPACTING TERMINALS...DO
THINK THE CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z AND
04Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF 18Z TAFS. SOUTH-SW WINDS
TODAY WILL SHIFT NW AND THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY THINKING THAT LOWER CLOUDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FROM CLE-MFD EAST LATER TONIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT CLE AND ERI AFTER 07Z MON.
CIGS MAINLY VFR ACROSS TOL-FDY.
.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MAINLY EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
WAVES OVER THE LAKE. FOR THE NEARSHORE...LOOKING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF MAY SEE
AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE SHOULD BE
FROM THE SSW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT WILL TRACK OVER
THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOSE TO
20KT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR QUIETER CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
550 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold and wet storm system will bring widespread heavy rain to
the Inland Northwest on Tuesday. Drier and warmer weather will
move into the area for the rest of the work week. The weekend will
see a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update: Forecast update sent to remove thunderstorms
from NE WA and N ID and incr risk for the East Slopes and
Wenatchee Area. Satellite imagery in conjunction with HRRR and
LAPS data would suggest the threat for thunderstorms this evening
across my northeastern zones has diminished...likely due to drying
and warming in the lower levels in the wake of this morning`s
wave. Given the lack of forcing until early Tuesday...this
activity would need to be surface based and based on the time of
day and lack of cumulus fields over the higher terrain, we have
removed the thunder chance through 11PM tonight. Meanwhile,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue along the
East Slopes and Wenatchee to Chelan area...potentially brushing
the western fringes of the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley.
These storms have a history of producing heavy rain and occasional
lightning strikes with tops just barely extending to 20k ft. The
viewpoint RAWS did receive 0.28" over the last two hours so heavy
downpours is a possibility.
A stronger, more dynamic system will move into the region late
tonight into Tuesday morning and latest (21z) HRRR is showing the
potential for strong thunderstorms to develop ahead of the wave
from 9-12z across portions of the lower ID Panhandle along the
richer theta-e axis. Previous forecast had a good handle on this
placement and will monitor trends during the next few hours so see
where PoPs may need further adjustments. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern through 03z will be thunderstorms
along the East Slopes of the Cascades...occasionally skirting the
Wenatchee area. Following a short break in the weather
overnight...a strong Pacific storm system will move into the area
aft 10z bringing widespread rain...potentially moderate to heavy at
times and rapid layer saturation leading to IFR/MVFR conditions
through midday Tuesday. The storm system will begin to lift out the
region late Tuesday aftn with some improvement in cigs and vis but
at the cost of incr winds. Wenatchee will be on the western edge of
the heaviest pcpn and has the best chance to remain VFR conditions
but will experience the strongest winds tue aftn. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 56 44 71 49 81 / 30 100 50 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 54 56 45 69 48 80 / 30 100 60 10 0 0
Pullman 51 58 43 70 45 81 / 40 100 40 0 0 0
Lewiston 58 67 48 78 55 90 / 50 100 30 0 0 0
Colville 53 58 46 73 47 82 / 20 100 80 20 0 0
Sandpoint 53 54 45 67 43 76 / 20 100 90 30 0 0
Kellogg 52 55 42 68 47 80 / 40 100 80 10 0 0
Moses Lake 56 66 47 78 51 87 / 50 80 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 56 65 48 77 56 85 / 60 70 10 0 0 0
Omak 54 62 44 76 51 84 / 30 80 40 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
THIS TIME...WITH LEADING EDGE OF WIND SHIFT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ALSO ACCELERATING WEST
SOUTHWEST AFTER INTERACTING WITH THIS WIND SHIFT.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AROUND 00Z MONDAY. WEAK TO
MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...BUT
NOT MUCH ELSE FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG ARE PRESENT IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT WOULD TAKE
SUSTAINED ROBUST ASCENT TO ACCESS IT.
THUS...KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
00Z ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR MODEL GENERATING CELLS ALONG FRONT BUT HAS
BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALL DAY...SO NOT CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES.
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS
SHOULD BRING A QUICK COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
THE HIGH MONDAY WILL FIGHT FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES OF 7 TO 11
DEGREES CELSIUS AND NORTHEAST FETCH. FOR NOW...DID NOT PUT ANY LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS IN FORECAST.
.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WL FALL OFF RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
THE LAKE BREEZE WL TAKE ITS TOOL ON TUE WITH LAKESHORE AREAS HOLDING
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND AREAS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LLJ PIVOTS ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SRN
WI ON WED. HOWEVER PUSH OF WARM AIR ONLY SERVES TO ENHANCE STRONG
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION OVER SOUTHERN WI WHILE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. HENCE NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO BE TRIGGERED BY LLJ ON WED.
THINKING 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER W.R.T. COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH WED
EVE. FOR NOW...WL LEAN MORE ON OTHER MORE CONSISTENT SHORT-MID
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
DID BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS ON WED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
925H TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 20S AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO PULL IN THE WARMER AIR.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN GENERAL THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WEAKER FLOW AND WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS. ECMWF...GFS AND GEMH DO
CARRY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CAN THU/THU
NGT...WHICH FLATTENS /AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ BLOCKING RIDGE FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF COOL FRONT ASSOCD
WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CARRIES THRU SRN WI DURING THU... HOWEVER
GEMH AND UKMO SLOWER WITH PASSAGE ON FRI. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE SOUTH WL RETARD ANY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM MOVING NWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO...UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO TRACK OF TS
DEBBY BUT APPEARS HPC LEANING TOWARD MORE NRN TRACK ASSOCD WITH
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN IL ON FRIDAY BUT MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING DRIER NW FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK
WHICH WOULD NUDGE SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. HENCE MAY KEEP SMALL
POPS IN ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOCUSES ON DEBBY TO
THE SOUTH AND UPSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGING...GFS CARRIES ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WI ON SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS BASED
MORE ON GFS NEVER GETS HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH MEMBERS GETTING MUCH MORE CHAOTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
LATEST ECMWF CONSISTENT ON PUMPING VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COOL FRONT WED NGT AND THU. PUSHED
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THU. THE HOT TEMPS AND DEWPTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WL NUDGE THE HEAT INDEX TOWARD TRIPLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING KMSN...KUES AND KMKE BY 23Z AND KENW BY 00Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME BRISK
BY THESE TIMES...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND 01Z TO 03Z MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
LOWER A BIT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
LINGERING IN THE 10 TO 12 KNOT RANGE. OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE.
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO MARINE ZONES...AND UNTIL 17Z MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING.
&&
.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 12 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
$$
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
939 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
02Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THE TAIL END OF THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH AN 800-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SEEN ON PROFILER AND VWP DATA...ALONG WITH
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FARTHER
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA...SUPPORTED BY A 25-30KT 850MB JET AND INSTABILITY
BEING FRONTOGENETICALLY LIFTED OUT OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
(ESTIMATED BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER RAP ANALYSIS). OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN STAYING DRY BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT MIGHT BE KEEPING OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY IS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE PRESENT OVER THE CHICAGO
AREA. IN FACT...SKIES HAVE NEARLY CLEARED OUT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER PER LATEST IR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
SORTA CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION GOING ON THERE.
QUESTION NOW OVERNIGHT IS WILL CONVECTION OCCUR...ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. 24.01Z AND QUITE A FEW PREVIOUS RAP RUNS HAVE KEPT
THE BEST 925MB THROUGH 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN IOWA. PERHAPS LATE IN THE NIGHT THE 925MB
GETS FOCUSED BACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS NORTHEAST IOWA...IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA.
THUS...THINK AT LEAST FOR CONVECTION PRODUCED FROM WARM
ADVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THAT TO OCCUR...IF AT ALL. LATEST 24.00Z NAM WOULD CONCUR WITH
THIS ASSESSMENT TOO. PLUS...INSTABILITY RIGHT NOW IS FAR AWAY AS
NOTED EARLIER. TO THE NORTH...AREA OF MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO. IT
IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THESE APPROACH TAYLOR AND CLARK
COUNTIES...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...FOR THE FORECAST CHANCES...REMOVED MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WHERE 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DESCRIBED EARLIER. CLOUD COVER IS REALLY
TRICKY TONIGHT TOO. THE CLEARING OCCURRING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COULD EASILY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDED BY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. TRIED TO INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST...WITH CLOUDS COMING
BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FROM
THE NORTH FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUNDAY MORNING FORECAST...GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS
WITH THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED-THU...WITH APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL WARMING
RESULTING. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 24 TO 27 C VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF.
ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 2.5. LOOKS TO BE A RATHER HOT COUPLE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY LAYS UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN CHANCES FRI-SAT. ALSO...MORE
SEASONABLE AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH BECOMES FURTHER ENHANCED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS...THOUGH. THE FIRST IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WHICH AS OF 05Z SUNDAY WAS IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...IN THE LOW 60S...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE LACK OF
RAIN...SHORT NIGHT LENGTH AND STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL ALL PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. PERHAPS SOME MVFR BR
MIGHT FORM AT WORST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE COLD FRONT AND IF
CONVECTION CAN FIRE ON IT. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. LAST CONCERN IS THE WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
WHICH WILL BE FELT MORE AT KRST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD KICK
UP TO 10-15 OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN GUST TO NEAR
20 KT FOR A BRIEF TIME NEAR 00Z. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER
06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PATH OF DEBBY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRE-DAWN...DEBBY CREEPING EAST IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STRUNG OUT TO THE NE ACROSS ALL OF NE
FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE
PWAT ON THE SPECIAL 06Z KCHS SOUNDING LAST NIGHT WAS 2.2 INCHES
WHILE THE RUC HAS HIGH VALUES TO THE S OF SAVANNAH. NOCTURNAL
CONVERGENCE CAUSED TSTMS WITH TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAINS TO ERUPT
RIGHT AT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE BEACHES FROM EDISTO TO FOLLY AND JUST
INLAND TO JAMES ISLAND PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OVERNIGHT
WHICH HAS SINCE BEEN CANCELLED AS RAINS QUICKLY DIMINISHED BY
08Z. THICK AND STEADY TROPICAL RAINS PERSIST ALONG COASTAL
MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA WITH SPORADIC AREAS OF COASTAL RAINS TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO THE PEE DEE REGION OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG IT HAD GREATLY
DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SATELLIT IMAGERY SHOWS THE VAST
COMPLEXITY OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION WITH A LOAD OF VERY
DRY AIR BANKED TO THE W OVER N GEORGIA AND FAR UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA.
TODAY...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
DISPLACED SOUTH INTO THE PATH OF TS DEBBY BY THE ADVANCING DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS SE GEORGIA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BULK OF THE FLOODING RAINS REMAINING
JUST S OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH
MCINTOSH COUNTY REAL CLOSE TODAY AS THE GFS NOSES UP 2.6 PWATS
INTO THAT AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS CONTINUE TO
BE ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND AREAS TO THE S OF SAVANNAH.
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT TODAY IS EXTREMELY SHARP AND WHILE FAR INLAND
AREAS REMAIN DRY...SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE DEEP MOIST AXIS
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME DOWNPOURS...AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
AS THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH TODAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT NE AND
LIKELY BECOME A BREEZY AT TIMES...EVEN INLAND AREAS N OF I-16
AND ALL OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA AS 25-30 KT GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND
TIGHTENING MOISTURE GRADIENTS COME INTO PLAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 80S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR COMING DOWN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE CLOUDS
TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT CLOSER TO DEBBY AND
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS NORTHERN ZONES BORDERING THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE...
EVENTUAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS TO NEAR 70 AROUND
DARIEN GEORGIA.
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEBBY MAKING A VERY SLOW TRACK EAST OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WHILE IT ENCOUNTERS THE STATIONARY FRONT...BEFORE ENTERING
THE GULF STREAM AND MAKING A SHIFT NORTHEAST. AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER OUR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PWATS
NEAR 1.0...BEFORE DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DRY AIR QUICKLY RUSHES OVER THE AREA.
WE COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HAVING A DRY FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN EXPANDING MID LVL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY EACH AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
LOW 90S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS APPEAR WARM AND DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN LARGE
MID LVL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID OVER THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL
RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEWPTS INCREASE TO
THE MID 70S. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THESE TEMPS ALONG WITH MID 70 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW TO MID
90S...AS A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE ON THE 06Z CYCLE. CHANCES OF RAIN AT TIMES
THROUGH MIDDAY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW
A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL JET HAS WINDS IN SOLID SCA RANGE FROM GRAYS
REEF TO BUOY 41004 BUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE DIMINISHING WINDS
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS ARE CHAOTIC BUT ELEVATED 4-6 FT IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 9 FT AT BUOY 41004.
STRONG NE SURGING WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...
ESPECIALLY N OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE SURGE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
REACH GRAYS REEF LATER TODAY BUT SPEEDS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE
NEAR SHORE LEGS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES NOW ALL WATERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND THIS
INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY. SEAS OF THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE ALL NIGHT AND ADVISORIES PERSISTS THERE.
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...2-3 FOOT SWELLS AND TIDES RUNNING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS FOR 6 FEET SEAS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL
WINDS/SEAS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED FOR LATE
WEEK WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BEFORE HEADING FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE GULF STREAM. A FAIR
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
WEEKEND...BETWEEN 1-3 FEET FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-4 FOR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN NORTH GA BETWEEN RYY AND GVL AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM EDT. THE COLD FRONT WITH
DRIER AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO EXTREME NORTH GA AND SHOULD MOVE TO
SOUTH OF ATL BY SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF A CSG-MCN-AGS LINE AS THE RAIN SHIELD FROM T.S. DEBBY ROTATES OVER
NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS RATIONALE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
16
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
.ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM
DEBBY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTER PORTION OF MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER OF DEBBY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CSG TO VDI. THIS HAS
RESULTED ON BEST PRESSURE AND WIND GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TO THE NORTH...STILL SEEING
STRONGER NORTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH
AND HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS
PRECIP...AREA OF MOISTURE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTER BANDS
FROM DEBBY HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BUT SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A
LACK OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY.
LATEST RAP MIXED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE EVEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. BETTER VALUES TO THE NORTH BUT DRY
AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. STILL
HAVE CAPES OF 2500 J/KG SO NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON AREA YET AND
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTH.
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIRECTION WITH
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THE MOST
LIKELY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE WITH
THE GFS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. EFFECTS
LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION ON THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE STORM. COULD SEE SOME OUTER BANDS ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MID WEEK.
DEESE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE NHC STILL KEEPING DEBBY IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF THE STORM DECIDES TO TAKE A FASTER
TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ON
SHORE THURSDAY AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ON THE EASTERN
SIDE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND END POPS
RELATED TO DEBBY BY THURSDAY.
BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WOULD PROVIDE
HOT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH
DEBBY AND DOESNT START BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 90S BUT IF DEBBY
MOVES OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WX CONCERNS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TS DEBBY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MAJOR AIRPORTS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS ALREADY EAST OF I-85
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDAY
CUMULUS DEVELOP AROUND 5000-6000FT BUT NOT MUCH AS DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR PUSHES SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NE AND
INCREASE TO 7-12KTS BY SUNRISE. GUSTS TO 18-23KTS ARE LIKELY TODAY
WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERTICAL MIXING IN PLACE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 89 60 92 64 / 10 10 10 10
ATLANTA 88 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 56 86 59 / 10 0 10 5
CARTERSVILLE 90 58 91 63 / 10 5 10 5
COLUMBUS 93 69 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 87 62 88 66 / 10 5 10 5
MACON 93 64 92 67 / 20 10 20 10
ROME 92 58 92 63 / 10 5 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 90 59 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
VIDALIA 89 70 90 70 / 50 30 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO
PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WILL VEER THE WINDS ABOUT 30 DEGREES ON THE UPDATE BASED ON SURFACE
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER SUNRISE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM AND CLIMATE SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO
PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER SUNRISE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1128 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS UPDATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN ON THE HEAT.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. FLAT RIDGE
FRIDAY BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE.
850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE
100-115 DEGREE RANGE (COOLEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND HOTTEST
IN THE HILL CITY AREA). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SOUTHERLY WIND (NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WARMING) MAY
NEGATE FULL 850MB MIXING THUS WENT AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE HILL CITY
AREA...MID 90S TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
DID MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA.
700MB TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY BE TOO HOT FOR ANYTHING TO POP OR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AT
KMCK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRATUS DEVELOPED
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT SO FAR HAS SHOWN NO
SIGNS OF MOVING TOWARDS KMCK. HOWEVER...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
DROPPING AND FOG WILL LIKELY START TO FORM IN A FEW HOURS. HAVE
LOWERED VISIBILITY TO 1SM BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WITH A SIMILAR SITUATION. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND SUBSIDENCE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND AT KMCK AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY. AT LEAST TWO
FIRE PLUMES WERE IDENTIFIABLE ON KGLD RADAR EARLIER TODAY...ONE IN
THOMAS COUNTY AND ANOTHER IN DUNDY COUNTY...NOT TO MENTION THE
FIRE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST CHANCE COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO
OBVIOUSLY FUELS ARE THERE AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE MET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...024
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE MIDNIGHT: SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH AND OVER DOWNEAST AREAS. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN
IS APPROACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WILL LIKELY LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS
HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN
MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY
RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM
WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND
SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER
COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW
COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING
AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM IN A LONG
TRAJECTORY FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN EAST AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGING ON HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
KATAHDIN REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL. THE WARM OCCLUSION AND ASSOCIATED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER MAINE BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL...AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM RECENT STORMS
COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
EXISTING FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS E XPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN EMERGES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
LIFT HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ZONES
FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE LOW 80S.. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AVOIDING INSTABILITY
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: IFR WILL THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR ALL TERMINALS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND BHB TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...IF NOT VFR...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE TEMPO IFR. IFR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES
COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW.
SHORT TERM: SCA MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WAVE HTS WILL STAY NEAR 4 FT IN A SE SWELL MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE 2210L: FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS DROPPED RADAR ESTIMATES OF .5
TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL AREAS OF OUR FA INCLUDING
BROWNVILLE. THIS AREA HAS WORKED MOSTLY N AND E OF THIS AREA SO
THERE WILL BE A BIT A BREAK UNTIL LATE TNGT WHEN EXPECT PRECIP TO
REDEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE EVE.
FLOOD WRNG FOR THIS AREA IN EFFECT UNTIL MID TUE AFTN...
COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW
RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY
DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO
THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN
GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-
015-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE INDICATES A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A 1001MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NANTUCKET. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS AND THEN PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MEANWHILE...TS DEBBIE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
MID-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JUNE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND PERHAPS LOW
50S OVER THE SW COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JUNE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND...BUT ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S UNDER A SUNNY
SKY WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
THE SKY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 60-65. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 60S DURING PEAK HEATING...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...COLD FRONT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH ECG
BY 08Z. SHOWERS ARE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES DURING LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW (OR LOWERING
AT ECG) DEW POINTS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS
BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633-635>638-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG IN THE PLAINS AND DEEP TROF OVER
QUEBEC/NE CONUS. A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THIS NW
FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ASSOCIATED CLD COVER OVER
ONTARIO INTO ERN LK SUP WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE ERN CWA...
MOST OF THIS CLD IS OF THE MID/HI VARIETY PER DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. OTRW...WITH SFC HI PRES SITUATED OVER NE
WI...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER THE W HALF. MORE CLD/SOME SHRA/TS ARE
IMPACTING THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT DESPITE PRESENCE
OF IMPRESSIVE CAP SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK/ABERDEEN RAOBS THAT IS
ON THE NRN EDGE OF VERY WARM AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY...UPR RDG TO THE W WL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E...WITH SFC HI PRES
SINKING SLOWLY S INTO THE LWR LKS/OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WED. EXPECT
AREA OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN ONTARIO TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE ERN CWA THIS MRNG. MORE HI CLD RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS WL ALSO STREAM OVER THE RDG
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL THE DAY WL TURN OUT MOSUNNY
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS. FCST H85 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 14-15C AND MIXING TO H825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING 80-85 AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE
MAXIMIZED NEAR LK MI IN THE H925 SW FLOW. BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE A WEAKER LK BREEZE WL FORM OFF LK SUP AS WELL AND BRING
SOME LOCAL COOLING TO SHORE COMMUNITIES.
TNGT...WITH STRENGTHENING SW H925 FLOW LIFTING H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C
BY 12Z WED NEAR THE WI BORDER AS WELL AS INCRSG PWAT TOWARD 1 INCH
OVER THE E TO 1.5 INCH OVER THE W...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER NGT. TEMPS
WL BE HIEST OVER THE W HALF IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE
COOLEST TEMPS WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT. DESPITE THE INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE AIRMASS WL SO
WARM THE RH WL BE TOO LO FOR ANY PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BROAD 595 H5 RIDGE THAT PRODUCED ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY IS FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. CORE OF WARMEST AIR /H85 TEMPS AOA
+24C/ REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY
AS WELL. SLIGHT COOLING IS FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES.
ON WEDNESDAY...SEEMS THERE IS STILL A SMALL RISK OF INCREASED MID
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS CWA ON NOSE OF H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS LOOKS LIKE ECMWF DID A FEW NIGHTS AGO
SHOWING GOOD SIGNAL WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR PRECIP. MORE
RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF ALONG WITH CANADIAN KEEP IT DRY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO JUST BUMP SKY UP FOR NOW AND KEEP FCST DRY.
MINIMAL DEEPER MOISTURE PER FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS WOULD LEAD TO
SPRINKLES IF SOMETHING DID WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. IF MID CLOUDS
ARE AROUND...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FCST WOULD POINT TO THEM
EVADING BY EARLY AFTN. H85 TEMPS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED WARMER THE
LAST FEW DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOW APPEARS THAT SOLID +20C H85 TEMPS
ARE AROUND IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING HIGHS WITH
MANY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPR 80S. GIVEN TRENDS WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWER 90S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF SCNTRL CWA WITH
WSW BLYR FLOW FCST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SWATH OF H85
DWPNTS WELL ABOVE +10C PLOWS ACROSS RESULTING IN SFC DWPNTS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA IN THE AFTN.
WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THE
WEEK.
ATTN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA
TO SEE WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT
VERY STOUT MID-LEVEL CAPPING AS H7 TEMPS ARE FCST WELL INTO THE
TEENS. EDGE OF MUCAPE GRADIENT SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN DEFLECT INTO CANADA ON EDGE
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION WILL WORK BACK INTO UPR LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPING OVR THE PLAINS WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD AT
THAT TIME WITH H7 TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY OF +14C TO
+16C. SOME HINTS AT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT MAY TRY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN THE CAPPING MAY
BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICK TO BRING SFC FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY BUT NOW SEEM
TO BE IN FAVOR OF IDEA THAT BRINGS FRONT INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND INTO SCNTRL AND EAST CWA THURSDAY
AFTN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK AND THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN CAPPING. ALSO...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS QUICKLY
SHUNTED MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN AS H85 WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING. IF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP /THINK THIS IS
A PRETTY BIG QUESTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAPPING/ THEN SEVERE STORMS
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVR SOUTH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OVR 40 KTS
AND MUCAPE OVR 2000-3000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FCST...BUT NO MORE AT THIS POINT WITH EXPECTED CAPPING. DEEP MIXING
MAY LOWER DWPNTS/HUMIDITY VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVR WESTERN INTERIOR. KNOCKED DWPTS DOWN FURTHER /LOWER
50S/ BUT DID NOT GO NEAR AS LOW AS MIXED DWPNT TOOL GAVE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DWPNTS/RH VALUES LATE
THURSDAY.
LOOKS QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS ON
KEWEENAW MAY GUST OVR 30 MPH...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MOST COOLING
WILL BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH REALLY HAS NOT FULLY ARRIVED BY THAT TIME
AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL WARM IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. SEE NO REASON WHY
MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT CRACK 80 DEGREES YET AGAIN...WITH MID-UPR
80S POSSIBLE SOUTH CNTRL. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW +21C H85
TEMPS SUPPORTING MAXES AROUND 90 DEGREES OVR MUCH OF CNTRL.
DEFINITELY SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BACKING AWAY FM THE COOLING THEY
WERE SHOWING EARLIER FOR FRIDAY. DOES LOOK A BIT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHTS FALL SOME WITH UPR LOW SETTLING
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY STILL PUSH PAST 80 DEGREES OVR CWA AWAY FM FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER SHORTWAVE/ELEVATED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CONSENSUS GAVE LOWER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY RAN WITH THAT
IDEA AS DIFFERENT RUNS OF DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND S-SW ON TUESDAY WITH AN ERLY LAKE
BREEZE WIND DEVELOPING AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI...WHEN STRONGER
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MIGHT IMPACT MAINLY THE NCENTRAL LAKE. A MOISTER AIRMASS THAT
ARRIVES AHEAD OF THIS TROF MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME PATCHY FOG ON WED
NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GOVERN THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE
ADVANCING FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SOME INTEGRITY ALONG WITH A GUST COMPONENT
SUPPORTED BY A WELL MIXED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE NORTH IS EVIDENT ON THE GOES-E
11-3.9U IMAGERY. THE 26.06 RAP AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 26.00 NAM
HAVE A SIGNATURE OF THE MOISTURE FIELD IN THEIR THETA-E DEPICTION.
THE MODEST AMBIENT THETA-E INCREASE AROUND 800MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
BE ACTED UPON BY YET ANOTHER MATURE DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AGAIN...
ONLY EXPECTING A MODEST RESPONSE IN THE PRODUCTION OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS - FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE SKY WILL
SLOWLY FILL WITH CIRRUS TONIGHT AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS OVER
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE ELDERLY POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO MODIFICATION AS IT
EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 4C WARMER TODAY - THIS TRANSLATES TO A 6-8F
INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY/S MAXES. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WILL
SUPPORT A WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT - MORE NEAR LATE JUNE AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MIDLEVEL GYRE AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH ENOUGH EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE ADVENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM WILL LEAN INTO PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES NICELY WITH THE EDGE
OF THE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE ELEVATED
PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PRECEDE THIS RIDGE AXIS A
FAIR AMOUNT...MAKING INROADS TO THE LAKE HURON VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COINCIDENTALLY...A SOUTHWARD DIVING JET MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE INTO LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY AS
WELL AS INCREASED 700-500MB DEFORMATION AND A NOSE OF INCREASED 320K
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE MIX OF DYNAMICS NECESSITATES
A LOW CHANCE POP FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE THUMB OUT ON LAKE
HURON...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 9KFT WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
MEASURING POTENTIAL. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING UPSTREAM WILL
NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CWA...WAA AND ALOT OF INSOLATION FITS THE RECENT PROFILE FOR
OVERACHIEVING TEMPERATURES. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING
IT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE MUCH DRONED ABOUT THURSDAY PERIOD...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO PASS OVERHEAD...HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF
AN ULTRA IMPRESSIVE MIXED LAYER/AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IT IS
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT THAT LEADS TO THE QUESTION MARKS CONCERNING
THURSDAY HIGHS. THE NEW TWIST OFFERED BY THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS
THE EXPECTATION THAT A COVERAGE OF CLOUDS (SEE ECMWF 500MB RH) WILL
SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOW HOW
OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IS ANYONES GUESS. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY
WITNESS SHORTWAVE MATERIAL AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS PILE UP ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THESE RIDGES. SO...PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A
FAIR AMOUNT. STILL DON/T THINK IT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH
GIVEN A WELL MIXED PROFILE...BUT IT SHOULD LIMIT THE RUNAWAY
BEHAVIOR OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SO THE APPROACH THIS ISSUANCE WAS
TO MASSAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES WITH A SOLID
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH THE TANGIBLE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ALOFT AND INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE MIDLEVELS DID ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE WELL CAPPED...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
NONETHELESS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000-3500
J/KG SIGNIFIES THIS THREAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE WILL CARRY AN IMMEDIATE SEVERE RISK.
A TRAILING JET MAXIMUM SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND THE EDGE OF THE THETA E RIDGE (THINK FRONTAL ZONE) REQUIRES A
CONTINUED RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALOT
OF QUESTIONS REGARDING OVERALL POTENTIAL BUT VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE VORTS/HOTSPOTS FIRING ALONG THE THETA E
GRADIENT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
A ZONAL JET PATTERN AND A DECAYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPS A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY AND GOOD PART OF SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND APPEAR
TOTALLY DEPENDENT UPON ANY MCS TYPE ACTIVITY DIRECTLY HITTING THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO GIVE MUCH DISCUSSION ON
SPECIFICS. HOWEVER...THE SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN GIVES REASON FOR
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES.
&&
.MARINE...
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN TODAY. THE OFFSHORE NATURE
OF THE FLOW WILL USHER THE HIGHEST WAVES TO THE CANADIAN SHORE OF
LAKE HURON. FURTHERMORE...OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEHAVED WELL
ENOUGH TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT WAVE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE THUMB SHORELINE. THE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD...ONLY TO SUCCUMB TO A BRIEF EPISODE
OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARMER AIRMASS
ENCROACHES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE WARM FLOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE - SAVE LOCATIONS OVER INNER SAGINAW BAY AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE...WHERE THE WATER SURFACE IS WARMER TO OFFSET THE
NEGATIVE STABILITY INFLUENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
//DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE
GUST POTENTIAL REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......MANN
AVIATION.....MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING NW WINDS INTO THE ERN
CWA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING HAS DROPPED INLAND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWAT VALUES INTO THE 0.60 INCH TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD STILL ALLOW INLAND MIN READINGS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 12C-14C RANGE...GUIDANCE MAX INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOKED REASONABLE. MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 35
PERCENT. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING
THAT TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS AND
LATEST ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP ON A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE A POCKET
OF H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND BEST FORCING FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING TO THE NORTH WOULD TEND TO A
DRIER FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAIN CORE OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AOA 20C FOR THE WEST AND 17C FOR THE EAST
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD MIX TO ABOUT H8 DURING THE DAY...SO
TEMPS THERE ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF SFC TEMP POTENTIAL. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW STATES WILL TRY TO
ERODE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL VARIABILITY IS STILL A LITTLE HIGH ON THE TIMING OF RIDGE
DEAMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL WAA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEREBY KEEPING THE RIDGE A LITTLE
SHARPER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS AS WELL. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE IN THESE PATTERNS...THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN CONTROL A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE PREDICTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
BELOW 65 ACROSS THE WEST. FARTHER EAST...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THIS PASSAGE THAN THE GFS. COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE
IDEA...WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF APPROACH FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY HAS BECOME A QUESTION WITH TROPICAL STORM
DEBBIE SPINNING IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBBIE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THERE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE GULF AND PREVENT NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE SEEN WITH
THIS FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-CENTRAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAP FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
COOLER AIR LAGS THE FRONT SOMEWHAT...SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER SEVERAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. COOLEST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. THOUGH
WITH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS NOW IN THE 60S...COOLING EFFECT IS
DIMINISHING. RH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UNDER 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE NOT AN ISSUE ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PATTERN BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL AFTER THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND WILL BRING A COUPLE
VERY WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW AS MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH. ONE OF THE
WEAK WAVES QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. ONCE AGAIN...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT STALLS FROM IA TO
IN AND ROBS THE AREA OF ANY CHANCE OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE TRANQUIL
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND S-SW ON TUESDAY WITH AN ERLY LAKE
BREEZE WIND DEVELOPING AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NORTHERN MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY...A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL TAKE ITS PLACE...BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
FEF/SWR
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE THE RETURNS OFF THE 88D
TO THE NORTH OF WHITEFISH BAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MQT AND APX
RADARS ARE PICKING THEM UP AT HIGHER THAN 10000 FT THINK THAT THEY
ARE SPRINKLES AT MOST. HRRR SHOWS SOMETHING MOVING INTO THE AREA
BY 10Z, AND THE CIGS DO FALL TO 2500 FT UPSTREAM. SO WILL KEEP IT
AT SPRINKLES FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RETURNS AS THEY
MOVE OVER SOME OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
ONLY A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING.
GIVEN DECENT VERTICAL MIXING TODAY AND LOWER DEW POINT AIR
MASS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND COMPLETELY
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM FORECAST. STILL EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
ERN AND FAR NE LOWER...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING SPOTTY MID
CLOUDS DROPPING OUT OF ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
GOING FORECAST ON TARGET...AND TWEAKS TO FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL THUS FAR. REMAINING DIURNAL CU (LOCATED EAST OF US-127
AND SOUTH OF M-32 CORRIDORS) CONTINUE TO STEADILY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE
SKIES ARE CLEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPS INLAND...
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL USUALLY OCCURS IN THE COLD SEASON. THE GTLKS ARE
JUST UPSTREAM OF AN OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/
GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM BEHIND DEVELOPING
NEW ENGLAND CUT-OFF LOW. HOT SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDS FAR N INTO CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ADVANCING TROF OVER THE PAC NW
WILL NUDGE THIS HIGH EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNW FLOW INTO THE GTLKS
THRU TUE BUT WITH 40M HGT RISES.
AT THE SFC: HIGH PRES IS OVER WRN LAKE SUP AT 19Z WILL SLIDE TO MKE
BY DAYBREAK TUE AND INTO SRN LAKE MI BY SUNSET.
NOW: AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...THE CLIMB TO HIT 70F HAS BEEN SLOW.
MOST PLACES DIDN`T REACH IT UNTIL 3 PM! TODAY`S TEMPS ARE 5-8F
BELOW NORMAL. STRATOCU HAVE FADED OVER THE ERN U.P. AND NW LOWER
AND THE TREND IS SEWD. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE 7-8 PM.
TEMPS: GIVEN THE QUIET/NEAR NORMAL PATTERN...USED A BLEND OF ALL
GUIDANCE WITH BIAS CORRECTION FOR TNGT`S LOWS AND TUE`S HIGHS. DID
LOWER TEMPS ANOTHER 3-5F TNGT FROM PLN-INDIAN RIVER-ATLANTA-MIO.
TNGT: M/CLEAR. A FEW THIN SHREDS OF CIRRUS. LOWS /40-49F INLAND
AND 50-56F ALONG THE COASTS/. DID SEE 39F THIS MRNG 15N OF
ATLANTA. THIS PROBABLY REPEATS. SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK MENTION OF
PATCHY F IN THE FCST. CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHED ONLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDEST AREAS...NEAR CAD/GOV/HTL/ACB/PLN.
TUE: ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY. M/SUNNY WITH TEMP RECOVERY BACK TO
NORMAL /74-80F EXCEPT COOLER IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST/. 850 TEMP
OF +10 SUPPORTS 77F FOR HIGH TEMPS. LOW-LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN TOO
STRONG FOR LAKE BREEZES ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE. WINDS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN OFFER G14-17 KTS WITH A ONE-TIME PEAK G20.
BECAUSE OF THIS...REMOVED COOL BIAS ALONG THE COAST AND TOOK
78-80F ALL THE WAY TO SHORELINE.
DO EXPECT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.P. AND NW LOWER
MI...INCLUDING GT BAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO LAKE MI.
DWPTS ARE BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 25%
BLEND WITH MET MOS TO LOWER SOME MORE AS DWPTS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS
LOW AS TODAY. MAV MOS NOT USED AS IT`S ~7F HIGHER THAN MET. STILL
HAD TO TAKE FEW LOCATIONS DOWN ANOTHER 3-4F. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS/DWPTS FROM 4 AM APX FCST. SO THREAT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN HWO.
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
LARGE SCALE SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
COAST...A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....BIT OF A -NAO LOOK TO IT
ALL. TROPICAL STORM "DEBBY" CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. AS UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OPENS UP AND ITS
REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO "FOLD" OVER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
ALLOWING WARM AIR TO RETURN TO MICHIGAN. FLOW THEN FLATTENS OUT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME HEIGHT FALLS BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: DEEP LAYER RIDGING FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM AIR RETURN...BUT
THERE IS A POCKET OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FORECAST FROM MICHIGAN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH ELSE FROM HAPPENING.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS FRONT EXPECT
TO LIE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...GETTING STRETCHED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. THERE
IS AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
THIS WILL BE CAPPED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (+12C 700MB
TEMPERATURES/1000-500MB THICKNESSES APPROACHING 579DM ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING). SO APPEARS AS IF CONVECTION WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING GOING...AND EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE
80S...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE STRETCHED ITS WAY
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THAN WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING PEAK HEATING...MAY BE SOME CLOUDS WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP A LID ON
THINGS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL...NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY WHEN DEALING WITH THIS MUCH
POTENTIAL ENERGY. THURSDAY COULD BE A REALLY WARM DAY...THE ONE
CAVEAT BEING POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES (THAT
OFTEN BITES US DURING POTENTIAL HEAT WAVES). STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN LOWER REACHING OR ECLIPSING 90 DEGREES.
DON`T THINK ANY RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY UNLESS THE SOO CAN REACH 90
(ANJ RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY 89/1971).
EXTENDED FORECAST (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): BY THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BEEN
FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
ON THE HORIZON AT THIS POINT.
DAILY SPECIFICS...FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARM...AND PERHAPS NOT QUITE
AS HUMID AS THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...MAYBE A
BIT WARMER SUNDAY BUT WILL GO DRY BOTH DAYS. WILL START THE NEW
MONDAY FORECAST OUT DRY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE LOWER CIGS THAT ARE MOVING DOWN THE
EAST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO E UPPER. TIMING ON THE CLOUDS
PUTS THEM AT PLN AROUND 08Z AND APN AROUND 09Z. WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME TEMPO GROUPS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU CAN BE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 346 PM/
TNGT: LOW END SCA`S ARE IN PROGRESS ON THE ST MARY`S RVR. GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVNG...SO SCA`S WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NW OVER THE WATERS...AND INCREASE OVER LAKE HURON.
EXPECT LOW-END 22-25 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG AND LAST THRU THE
NGT. SCA WILL POST AT 4 PM FOR 5 NM E OF THE BRIDGE TO STURGEON
POINT LIGHT.
TUE: LOW-END SCA`S WILL CONTINUE THRU 5 PM FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER MI.
SOME 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER NEARSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO MI. SO LIGHT W WINDS WILL
BECOME SW. NO HEADLINES FOR LAKE MI/WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARY`S RVR.
TUE NGT-WED: HIGH PRES DEPARTS TO THE E WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW
ON ALL NRN MI NEARSHORE WATERS. NO HEADLINES AS STABILITY INCREASES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ347-
348.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...FEF/NTS
SHORT TERM...JDH
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...JDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE
HWO PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF PER OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...SURFACE WINDS
BELOW 12 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 270000Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LIMITED CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 07Z.
FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR FIRE WEATHER. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY WITH A DRY E/NE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY AIR NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 700MB WAS A
LIKELY CULPRIT IN MIN RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 20% BEING OBSERVED AS IT
WAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATING MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AND THAT RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON THAN VALUES NOTED FROM
MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS WINDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15MPH. WILL MENTION THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO
PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT BASED ON THOUGHTS
ABOVE.
TEMPS...LAST DAY TO ENJOY PLEASANT TEMPS BEFORE THE FURNACE COMES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. RECENT TEMP PERFORMANCE WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AS HEAT RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST AND BRINGS VERY HOT WEATHER
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TRIGGERING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY AS IT EXPANDS EAST BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE A DAY
FILLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE EAST INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST JUNE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
SINCE 1988. ALL SIGNS POINT TO EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH 27-28C AND 925MB TEMPS OF 32-34C ARE PRESENT BY
THE AFTERNOON. OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO
BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO
BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY
FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE
REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY
THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES.
HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SEEM MUCH MORE
REALISTIC CONSIDERING DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TEMPS AT 850/925MB MENTIONED ABOVE WITH EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS
TO AROUND 4-5KFT...COMBINED WITH W/SW WINDS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS AT OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
ON THURSDAY. MIXING 33-34C AIR FROM 925MB TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY PRODUCE GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING...AND NOW HAVE TEMPS REACHING 100 ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT AT 102 OR 103
DEGREES OVER THE WABASH VALLEY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR INDIANAPOLIS ON
THURSDAY IS 101 FROM 1934...AND THIS WILL BE THREATENED. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS WITH EXPECTED HEAT...HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WITH STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPS...DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN MUCH EASIER TO HEAT
UP IN RECENT WEEKS AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY OBSERVED HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
TOPPING GUIDANCE. SEE NO REASON THIS CHANGES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS AND EVEN A TOUCH
WARMER IN MOST CASES THAN THE METMOS. GENERALLY UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT
TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LARGER DIURNAL
SWINGS. GOOD CHANCE BOTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SEE CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FROM MORNING LOWS TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MEMBERS BUILD THE HEAT RIDGE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
OTHERS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE HEAT RIDGE BACK OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AT THAT TIME. THE ENSEMBLES THAT KEEP SHARPER TROUGHING OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO HINT AT A PRECIPITATION THREAT
LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DRY AND KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE TRENDS.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T BE AS HOT IN THE
EXTENDED AS THEY WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...SURFACE WINDS
BELOW 12 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 270000Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:
JUNE 28 - 101 (1934)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)
ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH AT KIND - 102 (6/25/1988 AND 6/26/1954)
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
CLIMATE...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1111 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TO MAKE SLIGHT
TWEAKS ON TEMP AND DEW POINT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SITS BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES, MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW, WITH A COOL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A 1018MB HIGH IS
CENTERED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXTENDING IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH A DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR ABOVE 750MB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH TO GUST TO
25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY SUNSET. TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UL LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG MIDWEST RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE AREA, MEANING OUR UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NW. THE FLOW, AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
UL WAVES TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE WED AND
THU. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISO AFT ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LACKING, SO WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION ON THU. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU, AS THESE UL WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, FOR THE REASONS THAT STRONGER
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH FILLS WITH THE APPROACHING WEEKEND.
THOSE MODELS DO MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES IN HEIGHT MAGNITUDE/TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THOUGH. EITHER WAY...READINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGHS WERE FORECAST ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES UNDER HPC GUIDANCE...BUT STILL ABOVE GFS NUMBERS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. SLIGHT...TO CHANCE
POPS WERE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY...AND DIMINISHED THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC WIND WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
IMPROVES WITH THE HEATING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING LAYER,
EXPECT GUSTS TO BE NEAR MONDAY`S SPEED, 18 TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1053 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRZY/COMFY WX HAS REPLACED THE WRM/HOT WX OF RECENT DAYS. RMNG
(GENLY) SKC THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...W/ DEWPTS RMNG LO. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO ARND 80F...W/ NNW WNDS 10-20 MPH...GUSTS TO
25 TO 35 MPH (HIGHEST ERN PORTIONS).
NOTE: TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64)
TO CHECK OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM TUE AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND PERHAPS LOW
50S OVER THE SW COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JUNE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND...BUT ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S UNDER A SUNNY
SKY WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
THE SKY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 60-65. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 60S DURING PEAK HEATING...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633-635>638-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE INDICATES A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A 1001MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NANTUCKET. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS AND THEN PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MEANWHILE...TS DEBBIE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
MID-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JUNE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND PERHAPS LOW
50S OVER THE SW COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JUNE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND...BUT ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S UNDER A SUNNY
SKY WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
THE SKY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 60-65. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 60S DURING PEAK HEATING...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633-635>638-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG IN THE PLAINS AND DEEP TROF OVER
QUEBEC/NE CONUS. A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THIS NW
FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ASSOCIATED CLD COVER OVER
ONTARIO INTO ERN LK SUP WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE ERN CWA...
MOST OF THIS CLD IS OF THE MID/HI VARIETY PER DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. OTRW...WITH SFC HI PRES SITUATED OVER NE
WI...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER THE W HALF. MORE CLD/SOME SHRA/TS ARE
IMPACTING THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT DESPITE PRESENCE
OF IMPRESSIVE CAP SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK/ABERDEEN RAOBS THAT IS
ON THE NRN EDGE OF VERY WARM AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY...UPR RDG TO THE W WL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E...WITH SFC HI PRES
SINKING SLOWLY S INTO THE LWR LKS/OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WED. EXPECT
AREA OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN ONTARIO TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE ERN CWA THIS MRNG. MORE HI CLD RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS WL ALSO STREAM OVER THE RDG
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL THE DAY WL TURN OUT MOSUNNY
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS. FCST H85 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 14-15C AND MIXING TO H825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING 80-85 AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE
MAXIMIZED NEAR LK MI IN THE H925 SW FLOW. BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE A WEAKER LK BREEZE WL FORM OFF LK SUP AS WELL AND BRING
SOME LOCAL COOLING TO SHORE COMMUNITIES.
TNGT...WITH STRENGTHENING SW H925 FLOW LIFTING H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C
BY 12Z WED NEAR THE WI BORDER AS WELL AS INCRSG PWAT TOWARD 1 INCH
OVER THE E TO 1.5 INCH OVER THE W...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER NGT. TEMPS
WL BE HIEST OVER THE W HALF IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE
COOLEST TEMPS WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT. DESPITE THE INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE AIRMASS WL SO
WARM THE RH WL BE TOO LO FOR ANY PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BROAD 595 H5 RIDGE THAT PRODUCED ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY IS FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. CORE OF WARMEST AIR /H85 TEMPS AOA
+24C/ REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY
AS WELL. SLIGHT COOLING IS FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES.
ON WEDNESDAY...SEEMS THERE IS STILL A SMALL RISK OF INCREASED MID
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS CWA ON NOSE OF H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS LOOKS LIKE ECMWF DID A FEW NIGHTS AGO
SHOWING GOOD SIGNAL WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR PRECIP. MORE
RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF ALONG WITH CANADIAN KEEP IT DRY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO JUST BUMP SKY UP FOR NOW AND KEEP FCST DRY.
MINIMAL DEEPER MOISTURE PER FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS WOULD LEAD TO
SPRINKLES IF SOMETHING DID WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. IF MID CLOUDS
ARE AROUND...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FCST WOULD POINT TO THEM
EVADING BY EARLY AFTN. H85 TEMPS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED WARMER THE
LAST FEW DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOW APPEARS THAT SOLID +20C H85 TEMPS
ARE AROUND IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING HIGHS WITH
MANY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPR 80S. GIVEN TRENDS WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWER 90S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF SCNTRL CWA WITH
WSW BLYR FLOW FCST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SWATH OF H85
DWPNTS WELL ABOVE +10C PLOWS ACROSS RESULTING IN SFC DWPNTS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA IN THE AFTN.
WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THE
WEEK.
ATTN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA
TO SEE WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT
VERY STOUT MID-LEVEL CAPPING AS H7 TEMPS ARE FCST WELL INTO THE
TEENS. EDGE OF MUCAPE GRADIENT SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN DEFLECT INTO CANADA ON EDGE
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION WILL WORK BACK INTO UPR LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPING OVR THE PLAINS WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD AT
THAT TIME WITH H7 TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY OF +14C TO
+16C. SOME HINTS AT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT MAY TRY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN THE CAPPING MAY
BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICK TO BRING SFC FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY BUT NOW SEEM
TO BE IN FAVOR OF IDEA THAT BRINGS FRONT INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND INTO SCNTRL AND EAST CWA THURSDAY
AFTN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK AND THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN CAPPING. ALSO...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS QUICKLY
SHUNTED MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN AS H85 WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING. IF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP /THINK THIS IS
A PRETTY BIG QUESTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAPPING/ THEN SEVERE STORMS
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVR SOUTH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OVR 40 KTS
AND MUCAPE OVR 2000-3000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FCST...BUT NO MORE AT THIS POINT WITH EXPECTED CAPPING. DEEP MIXING
MAY LOWER DWPNTS/HUMIDITY VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVR WESTERN INTERIOR. KNOCKED DWPTS DOWN FURTHER /LOWER
50S/ BUT DID NOT GO NEAR AS LOW AS MIXED DWPNT TOOL GAVE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DWPNTS/RH VALUES LATE
THURSDAY.
LOOKS QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS ON
KEWEENAW MAY GUST OVR 30 MPH...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MOST COOLING
WILL BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH REALLY HAS NOT FULLY ARRIVED BY THAT TIME
AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL WARM IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. SEE NO REASON WHY
MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT CRACK 80 DEGREES YET AGAIN...WITH MID-UPR
80S POSSIBLE SOUTH CNTRL. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW +21C H85
TEMPS SUPPORTING MAXES AROUND 90 DEGREES OVR MUCH OF CNTRL.
DEFINITELY SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BACKING AWAY FM THE COOLING THEY
WERE SHOWING EARLIER FOR FRIDAY. DOES LOOK A BIT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHTS FALL SOME WITH UPR LOW SETTLING
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY STILL PUSH PAST 80 DEGREES OVR CWA AWAY FM FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER SHORTWAVE/ELEVATED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CONSENSUS GAVE LOWER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY RAN WITH THAT
IDEA AS DIFFERENT RUNS OF DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND S-SW WITH AN ERLY LAKE BREEZE WIND
DEVELOPING AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT OVER WRN UPR MI LATE TNGT WL RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL LLWS
AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI...WHEN STRONGER
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MIGHT IMPACT MAINLY THE NCENTRAL LAKE. A MOISTER AIRMASS THAT
ARRIVES AHEAD OF THIS TROF MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME PATCHY FOG ON WED
NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
651 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON - THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED - POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK AROUND 6KFT AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GOVERN THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE
ADVANCING FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SOME INTEGRITY ALONG WITH A GUST COMPONENT
SUPPORTED BY A WELL MIXED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE NORTH IS EVIDENT ON THE GOES-E
11-3.9U IMAGERY. THE 26.06 RAP AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 26.00 NAM
HAVE A SIGNATURE OF THE MOISTURE FIELD IN THEIR THETA-E DEPICTION.
THE MODEST AMBIENT THETA-E INCREASE AROUND 800MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
BE ACTED UPON BY YET ANOTHER MATURE DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AGAIN...
ONLY EXPECTING A MODEST RESPONSE IN THE PRODUCTION OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS - FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE SKY WILL
SLOWLY FILL WITH CIRRUS TONIGHT AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS OVER
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE ELDERLY POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO MODIFICATION AS IT
EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 4C WARMER TODAY - THIS TRANSLATES TO A 6-8F
INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY/S MAXES. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WILL
SUPPORT A WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT - MORE NEAR LATE JUNE AVERAGES.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MIDLEVEL GYRE AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH ENOUGH EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE ADVENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM WILL LEAN INTO PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES NICELY WITH THE EDGE
OF THE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE ELEVATED
PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PRECEDE THIS RIDGE AXIS A
FAIR AMOUNT...MAKING INROADS TO THE LAKE HURON VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COINCIDENTALLY...A SOUTHWARD DIVING JET MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE INTO LAKE HURON DURING
THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY AS
WELL AS INCREASED 700-500MB DEFORMATION AND A NOSE OF INCREASED 320K
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE MIX OF DYNAMICS NECESSITATES
A LOW CHANCE POP FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE THUMB OUT ON LAKE
HURON...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 9KFT WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
MEASURING POTENTIAL. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING UPSTREAM WILL
NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CWA...WAA AND ALOT OF INSOLATION FITS THE RECENT PROFILE FOR
OVERACHIEVING TEMPERATURES. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING
IT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING THE MUCH DRONED ABOUT THURSDAY PERIOD...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO PASS OVERHEAD...HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF
AN ULTRA IMPRESSIVE MIXED LAYER/AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IT IS
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT THAT LEADS TO THE QUESTION MARKS CONCERNING
THURSDAY HIGHS. THE NEW TWIST OFFERED BY THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS
THE EXPECTATION THAT A COVERAGE OF CLOUDS (SEE ECMWF 500MB RH) WILL
SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOW HOW
OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IS ANYONES GUESS. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY
WITNESS SHORTWAVE MATERIAL AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS PILE UP ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THESE RIDGES. SO...PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A
FAIR AMOUNT. STILL DON/T THINK IT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH
GIVEN A WELL MIXED PROFILE...BUT IT SHOULD LIMIT THE RUNAWAY
BEHAVIOR OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SO THE APPROACH THIS ISSUANCE WAS
TO MASSAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES WITH A SOLID
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH THE TANGIBLE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ALOFT AND INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE MIDLEVELS DID ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL
EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE WELL CAPPED...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
NONETHELESS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000-3500
J/KG SIGNIFIES THIS THREAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE WILL CARRY AN IMMEDIATE SEVERE RISK.
A TRAILING JET MAXIMUM SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND THE EDGE OF THE THETA E RIDGE (THINK FRONTAL ZONE) REQUIRES A
CONTINUED RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALOT
OF QUESTIONS REGARDING OVERALL POTENTIAL BUT VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE VORTS/HOTSPOTS FIRING ALONG THE THETA E
GRADIENT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
A ZONAL JET PATTERN AND A DECAYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPS A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY AND GOOD PART OF SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND APPEAR
TOTALLY DEPENDENT UPON ANY MCS TYPE ACTIVITY DIRECTLY HITTING THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO GIVE MUCH DISCUSSION ON
SPECIFICS. HOWEVER...THE SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN GIVES REASON FOR
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES.
MARINE...
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN TODAY. THE OFFSHORE NATURE
OF THE FLOW WILL USHER THE HIGHEST WAVES TO THE CANADIAN SHORE OF
LAKE HURON. FURTHERMORE...OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEHAVED WELL
ENOUGH TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT WAVE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE THUMB SHORELINE. THE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD...ONLY TO SUCCUMB TO A BRIEF EPISODE
OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARMER AIRMASS
ENCROACHES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE WARM FLOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE - SAVE LOCATIONS OVER INNER SAGINAW BAY AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE...WHERE THE WATER SURFACE IS WARMER TO OFFSET THE
NEGATIVE STABILITY INFLUENCES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MANN
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ITS MEAN AXIS JUST WEST OF YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SOME...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S...MAINLY OVER YUMA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S...WITH DAILY RECORDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QPF LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED...WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. I
INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OPENING UP
THE DOOR FOR LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGHS CRESTING OVER THE RIDGE TO
MOVE NEAR THE REGION. AS SUCH THERE ARE SEVERAL LOW CHANCE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION AND WHAT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING BEYOND THE
PERIOD THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 10KT AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. WITH RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY FUELS EVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE
ENOUGH FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IN THESE CONDITIONS. I PLAN ON
KEEPING RFW IN PLACE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RH/WIND CROSSOVER FOR RFW WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IF TD FAIL TO RECOVER AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED THEN RFW WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO RH/WIND...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
THURSDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1970
HILL CITY....110 IN 1933
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1963
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1963
YUMA.........102
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...AP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
128 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ITS MEAN AXIS JUST WEST OF YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SOME...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S...MAINLY OVER YUMA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S...WITH DAILY RECORDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QPF LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED...WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. I
INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
ELONGATED HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL SOMEWHAT
BISECT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN RIDGE
AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE ROCKIE MOUNTAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INCREASING
CHANCES TO PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
WITH INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RESIDING NORTH OF
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 17C
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 10KT AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. WITH RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY FUELS EVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE
ENOUGH FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IN THESE CONDITIONS. I PLAN ON
KEEPING RFW IN PLACE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RH/WIND CROSSOVER FOR RFW WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IF TD FAIL TO RECOVER AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED THEN RFW WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO RH/WIND...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SITS BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES, MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW, WITH A COOL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A 1018MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A LOW OVER MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE 750MB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECREASE TO 5 TO
10 MPH BY AROUND SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES
ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT IN A DRY SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. 850 TEMPS
WILL INCREASE TO 13-15C ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE THERMAL STRUCTURE
ALOFT ON THURSDAY. NAM/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM, INDICATING 850
TEMPS WARMING TO 23-25C BY 00Z FRIDAY. FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
COOLER GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS, WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH MODELS DIFFERING IN THE TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CROWN OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES CONVECTION WITH A SHORT WAVE
REACHING THE AREA BY AS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE BEGUN SCHC
POPS THAT NIGHT. POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE ON THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING FUELING CONVECTION IN A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS AGAIN QUITE A SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON FRIDAY. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WITH CONVECTION, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE
MID 80S NORTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. HIGHS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE NAM, WHICH IS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NEAR
RECORD TEMPS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND THE COOLER GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A TROUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WERE FORECAST 3 TO 5 DEGREES UNDER HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT CLOSER TO GFS MOS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHILE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TIMING OF AREAS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRIER
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS MIXING FROM DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ARE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO THE THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
348 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NOTE: INITIAL FINDINGS FROM OFFICE`S SURVEY TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC
AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64) (CHECKING OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM
MON AFTN).
1. CONFIRMED EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE IN GOOCHLAND COUNTY...GENERALLY
NEAR COUNTY LINE RD TO HICKORY HILL RD.
2. LARGE SCALE DERECHO FROM AROUND OILVILLE IN GOOCHLAND COUNTY TO
ROCKVILLE IN WESTERN HANOVER COUNTY. IN THAT AREA...WIDESPREAD
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DAMAGED/UPROOTED; 3-4
FOOT DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED HALF WAY UP. WIND SPEEDS EST 80 TO
100 MPH.
THE TEAM IS NOW HEADED TO WESTERN HENRICO COUNTY. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE FORTHCOMING. A DETAILED PNS (PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT)
WILL BE ISSUED UPON THEIR RETURN THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NOTE: INITIAL FINDINGS FROM OFFICE`S SURVEY TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC
AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64) (CHECKING OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM
MON AFTN).
1. CONFIRMED EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE IN EASTERN GOOCHLAND
COUNTY...GENERALLY NEAR COUNTY LINE RD TO HICKORY HILL RD.
2. LARGE SCALE DERECHO FROM AROUND OILVILLE IN GOOCHLAND COUNTY TO
ROCKVILLE IN WESTERN HANOVER COUNTY. IN THAT AREA...WIDESPREAD
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DAMAGED/UPROOTED; 3-4
FOOT DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED HALF WAY UP. WIND SPEEDS EST 80 TO
100 MPH.
THE TEAM IS NOW HEADED TO WESTERN HENRICO COUNTY. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE FORTHCOMING. A DETAILED PNS (PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT)
WILL BE ISSUED UPON THEIR RETURN THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
NOTE: TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64)
TO CHECK OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM MON AFTN. AS OF MID THIS AFTN...NO
WORD ON THEIR FINDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES LCTD OVR OH VLY CONTS TO BUILD TWD THE FA THROUGH
TNGT. DRY NNW LLVL FLO RESULTING IN A VRY COMFY LT JUNE AFTN...AND
CONDS WL RMN SO THROUGH TNGT. WNDS GUSTY TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST
E...A LTL WHILE LONGER...XPCD TO DCRS DURG THE EVE HRS. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FM THE U40S TO L50S. SOME RECOVERY XPCD INTO
TNGT...THOUGH WILL BE LRGLY IN THE 50S. W/ THAT IN MIND...LO TEMPS
WL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO ARND 60F. XPCG GENLY SKC...W/ XCPTN
BEING FAR SE VA INTO NE NC WHERE THERE WL BE BKN-OVC CI.
NOTE: TEAM DISPATCHED TO RIC AREA (AND IMMEDIATELY NW INVOF I64)
TO CHECK OUT TSTM DAMAGE FM TUE AFTN. AS OF MID THIS AFTN...NO
WORD ON THEIR FINDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE THEME OF THE WX FM WED THROUGH FRI WL BE INCRSG WARMTH. SFC HI
PRES SETTLES INTO THE SE STATES WED...AS STRNG RIDGE ALOFT INVOF
PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES
INVOF XTRM ERN NEW ENG IS SLO TO LIFT OUT TO THE ENE. XPCG A MSNY
DAY ON WED...W/ TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S. DEWPTS TO RMN QUITE
LO...W/ AFTN READINGS LRGLY ARND 50F.
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MS VLY WED
NIGHT AND THU. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE PSBL IN REMNANT NW FLO
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SKY SHOULD
LRGLY RMN MSTLY SKC/SNY ACRS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS
OF 55-65F. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U50S-L60S DURING
PEAK HEATING THU...SO HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.
B4 EVEN HOTTER AMS ARRIVES FM THE W ON FRI...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PSBL CNVTN MOVG SE IN RESIDUAL NW FLO ALOFT (FM THE ERN OH VLY)
(PRIMARILY LT THU NGT/FRI MRNG). WL CONT W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC
(20-30% POPS) OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF FA ON FRI. OTRW...MDL LLVL
THICKNESS SUGGEST TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT 100F ACRS INTR SXNS OF
FA...AND L/M90S EVEN TO THE CST. UNLIKE HOT WX FM 19TH-22ND THIS
MONTH WHEN UPR LVL RIDGE WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (WELL N INTO SE
CANADA)...THIS TIME ARND...RIDGE ALOFT IS MUCH FLATTER...AND THE
XTRM HEAT WL BE TARGETING THE MDATLC STATES/CAROLINAS (AND MOST
LIKELY NOT INCLD THE NE CONUS). W/ DP LYR FLO MR WSWLY THIS TIME
ARND...LIKELY TO TAKE LNGR FOR MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS TO REACH THE FA.
W/ THAT IN MIND...WL KP HEAT INDICES ON FRI BLO 105F ACRS FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE
THAT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT LOTS OF HEAT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 AS DEW POINTS FALL
DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
STALLING NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STALLED FRONT...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT
THAT WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THAT THE STORMS
WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
HEAT MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE WHERE TS
DEBBY WILL GO. FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BASED ON DEBBY HEADING THROUGH THE SW
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DURG THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BY
THIS WEEKEND. ALSO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR THIS
MORNING AND WENT WITH HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTN. HAVE
SCA ENDING BY 17Z EXCEPT CONTINUED TIL 20Z IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IS MOSTLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS.
WIND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE WITH A SECONDARY NW
SURGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT BUT KEEPING THEM AT 4 FT
OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY JUNE 29 TO SUNDAY JULY 1
6/29 6/30 7/1
RIC 101/1980 103/1936 102/1945
ORF 100/1980 101/1936 100/1901
SBY 98/1959 99/1934 98/1968
ECG 97/2010 100/1936 98/1945
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBS.
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SITS BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES, MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW, WITH A COOL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A 1018MB HIGH IS
CENTERED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A LOW OVER MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE 750MB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE
A MAV/MET BLEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UL LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG MIDWEST RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE AREA, MEANING OUR UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NW. THE FLOW, AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
UL WAVES TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE WED AND
THU. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISO AFT ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LACKING, SO WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION ON THU. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU, AS THESE UL WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, FOR THE REASONS THAT STRONGER
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH FILLS WITH THE APPROACHING WEEKEND.
THOSE MODELS DO MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES IN HEIGHT MAGNITUDE/TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THOUGH. EITHER WAY...READINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGHS WERE FORECAST ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES UNDER HPC GUIDANCE...BUT STILL ABOVE GFS NUMBERS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. SLIGHT...TO CHANCE
POPS WERE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY...AND DIMINISHED THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG IN THE PLAINS AND DEEP TROF OVER
QUEBEC/NE CONUS. A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THIS NW
FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ASSOCIATED CLD COVER OVER
ONTARIO INTO ERN LK SUP WHICH IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE ERN CWA...
MOST OF THIS CLD IS OF THE MID/HI VARIETY PER DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. OTRW...WITH SFC HI PRES SITUATED OVER NE
WI...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER THE W HALF. MORE CLD/SOME SHRA/TS ARE
IMPACTING THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT DESPITE PRESENCE
OF IMPRESSIVE CAP SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK/ABERDEEN RAOBS THAT IS
ON THE NRN EDGE OF VERY WARM AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY...UPR RDG TO THE W WL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E...WITH SFC HI PRES
SINKING SLOWLY S INTO THE LWR LKS/OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WED. EXPECT
AREA OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN ONTARIO TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE ERN CWA THIS MRNG. MORE HI CLD RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS WL ALSO STREAM OVER THE RDG
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL THE DAY WL TURN OUT MOSUNNY
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS. FCST H85 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 14-15C AND MIXING TO H825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING 80-85 AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE
MAXIMIZED NEAR LK MI IN THE H925 SW FLOW. BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE A WEAKER LK BREEZE WL FORM OFF LK SUP AS WELL AND BRING
SOME LOCAL COOLING TO SHORE COMMUNITIES.
TNGT...WITH STRENGTHENING SW H925 FLOW LIFTING H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C
BY 12Z WED NEAR THE WI BORDER AS WELL AS INCRSG PWAT TOWARD 1 INCH
OVER THE E TO 1.5 INCH OVER THE W...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER NGT. TEMPS
WL BE HIEST OVER THE W HALF IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE
COOLEST TEMPS WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT. DESPITE THE INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE AIRMASS WL SO
WARM THE RH WL BE TOO LO FOR ANY PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BROAD 595 H5 RIDGE THAT PRODUCED ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY IS FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. CORE OF WARMEST AIR /H85 TEMPS AOA
+24C/ REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY
AS WELL. SLIGHT COOLING IS FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES.
ON WEDNESDAY...SEEMS THERE IS STILL A SMALL RISK OF INCREASED MID
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHRA/TSRA WORKING ACROSS CWA ON NOSE OF H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS LOOKS LIKE ECMWF DID A FEW NIGHTS AGO
SHOWING GOOD SIGNAL WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR PRECIP. MORE
RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF ALONG WITH CANADIAN KEEP IT DRY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO JUST BUMP SKY UP FOR NOW AND KEEP FCST DRY.
MINIMAL DEEPER MOISTURE PER FCST SOUNDINGS FM GFS WOULD LEAD TO
SPRINKLES IF SOMETHING DID WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. IF MID CLOUDS
ARE AROUND...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FCST WOULD POINT TO THEM
EVADING BY EARLY AFTN. H85 TEMPS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED WARMER THE
LAST FEW DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOW APPEARS THAT SOLID +20C H85 TEMPS
ARE AROUND IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING HIGHS WITH
MANY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPR 80S. GIVEN TRENDS WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWER 90S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF SCNTRL CWA WITH
WSW BLYR FLOW FCST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SWATH OF H85
DWPNTS WELL ABOVE +10C PLOWS ACROSS RESULTING IN SFC DWPNTS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA IN THE AFTN.
WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY OF THE
WEEK.
ATTN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA
TO SEE WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT
VERY STOUT MID-LEVEL CAPPING AS H7 TEMPS ARE FCST WELL INTO THE
TEENS. EDGE OF MUCAPE GRADIENT SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN DEFLECT INTO CANADA ON EDGE
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION WILL WORK BACK INTO UPR LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CAPPING OVR THE PLAINS WILL BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD AT
THAT TIME WITH H7 TEMPS OVR UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY OF +14C TO
+16C. SOME HINTS AT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT MAY TRY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN THE CAPPING MAY
BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICK TO BRING SFC FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY BUT NOW SEEM
TO BE IN FAVOR OF IDEA THAT BRINGS FRONT INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND INTO SCNTRL AND EAST CWA THURSDAY
AFTN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK AND THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN CAPPING. ALSO...H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS QUICKLY
SHUNTED MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN AS H85 WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING. IF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP /THINK THIS IS
A PRETTY BIG QUESTION GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAPPING/ THEN SEVERE STORMS
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVR SOUTH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OVR 40 KTS
AND MUCAPE OVR 2000-3000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FCST...BUT NO MORE AT THIS POINT WITH EXPECTED CAPPING. DEEP MIXING
MAY LOWER DWPNTS/HUMIDITY VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVR WESTERN INTERIOR. KNOCKED DWPTS DOWN FURTHER /LOWER
50S/ BUT DID NOT GO NEAR AS LOW AS MIXED DWPNT TOOL GAVE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DWPNTS/RH VALUES LATE
THURSDAY.
LOOKS QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS ON
KEWEENAW MAY GUST OVR 30 MPH...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MOST COOLING
WILL BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH REALLY HAS NOT FULLY ARRIVED BY THAT TIME
AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL WARM IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. SEE NO REASON WHY
MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT CRACK 80 DEGREES YET AGAIN...WITH MID-UPR
80S POSSIBLE SOUTH CNTRL. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW +21C H85
TEMPS SUPPORTING MAXES AROUND 90 DEGREES OVR MUCH OF CNTRL.
DEFINITELY SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BACKING AWAY FM THE COOLING THEY
WERE SHOWING EARLIER FOR FRIDAY. DOES LOOK A BIT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHTS FALL SOME WITH UPR LOW SETTLING
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. EVEN SO...MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY STILL PUSH PAST 80 DEGREES OVR CWA AWAY FM FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER SHORTWAVE/ELEVATED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CONSENSUS GAVE LOWER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY RAN WITH THAT
IDEA AS DIFFERENT RUNS OF DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT THEM TO PUSH THROUGH CMX AROUND 20Z
AND SAW AROUND 21Z. THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR IWD SHOULD REMAIN PINNED TO
THE SHORELINE WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS. WEAK LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT
IWD TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI...WHEN STRONGER
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MIGHT IMPACT MAINLY THE NCENTRAL LAKE. A MOISTER AIRMASS THAT
ARRIVES AHEAD OF THIS TROF MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME PATCHY FOG ON WED
NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
PLENTY TO CONSIDER INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES...ASSESSING
MODEL TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIP TRENDS.
OVERALL...GIVEN THE PATTERN AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS AND
WEAK NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT ANY
DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS...SO LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER GFS AND GEM OFFER SOME HOPE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINS. HOPEFULLY THE LATTER SCENARIO CAN SOMEHOW COME TO FRUITION. S
SEEING THE INITIALIZED ECMWF 500 MILLIBAR FLOW VERSUS THE 240
HOUR VALID 12Z/JULY 6TH DOES NOT EXACTLY GIVE MUCH HOPE FOR A
PATTERN TO CHANGE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
MINNESOTA...COUPLED WITH AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS IN THE
VERY WARM 23 TO 28C RANGE...WILL LEAN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI
WED THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING A SHORT-LIVED HEAT WAVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI THIS WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY THIS EVENING THEN
CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SSW WINDS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. THE BLOW TORCH
WILL BE ON WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND
28C...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MANY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. BUMPED THESE VALUES
UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE FAVORABLE HOT SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH THU IS
BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE HEAT AND HIGH HEAT INDICES...WED MAY END UP
HAVING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE HUMIDITY.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW ON WED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE GRASS AND
OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AMPLITUDE OF UPPER RIDGING REACHED ITS PEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. 500 MILLIBAR THEN FLATTENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
VERY WARM NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING READINGS IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR LOWS. PREFER THE DRIER LOOK THE 12Z
NAM/00Z ECMWF WITH QPF ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. NEVERTHELESS 925/850 TEMPS DO NOT TAIL OFF TOO MUCH.
925 TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 20SC/LOW 30SC. AFTERNOON RELIEF
EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE AS LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN. INLAND...GOING OFF
STRICTLY THE 925/850 TEMP TECHNIQUE...MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S WITH
SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS PLAUSIBLE. LIGHTER WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS
MAY RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE POOLING...AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
GFS AND GEM ARE BOTH CONVECTING WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. 700
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 12C SO THINK BREAKING THE CAP MAY BE REAL
TOUGH. THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH RELIEF POTENTIAL HIGHEST IN THE FAR EAST
NEAR LAKE MI.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WNW UPPER FLOW. CORE OF THE HOT AXIS TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF HAS THE
HOTTEST 925 TEMPS STILL NUDGING INTO THE CWA...GFS WELL SOUTH. THE
NAM IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. STILL KEEPS US WELL INTO THE 90S. PREFER
THE DRIER AND LESS NOISY LOOK OF THE ECMWF/NAM VERSUS THE GFS/GEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND GEM CONTINUE WITH NOISY VORTS WITHIN THE WNW 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW SUGGESTING SOME RAIN. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT CONDITIONS
WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. LEANING DRY LOOK AT THIS
POINT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WITH MODELS HINTING AT SHORTWAVE IN THE NW
UPPER FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS SHOWING THE WET LOOK SO FROM A
WISHCASTING POINT OF VIEW THIS WOULD BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS WAVE AS BEING LEGIT THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. GFS LOOKS TOO FAST. HINTS OF
WAA INDUCED PRECIP...QUITE LIGHT ON THE ECMWF. GFS LOOKS OVERBLOWN.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
AGAIN GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF SLOWER.
12Z RUN SHOWS A LITTLE MORE ACCELERATION THOUGH PRECIP LARGELY TO
OUR NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL
BE SOME CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING.
AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS... NAM AND RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CRANK WINDS UP TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY WITHIN 1500 FT OVER A
SHALLOW INVERSION. THESE WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER ON THE GFS SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY... HOWEVER MENTIONED THE WIND SHEAR IN THE MSN
TAF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 22 TO 25KT EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING MSN. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A VERY WARM
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...UP
TO 23 KNOTS. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. GIVEN
THE BORDERLINE SCENARIO AND LAKE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE LAND
TEMPERATURES HAVING A STABILIZING EFFECT...DID NOT ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25 MPH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.
DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE GRASS AND OTHER VEGETATION BEING PRETTY DRY DUE TO THE LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR