Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/25/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
918 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
WORKING NORTHWARD THROUGH LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES. THERE WAS
SOME ACCUMULATING RAIN WITH THESE STORMS IN THE FORT COLLINS AND
WELLINGTON AREAS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH PARK FIRE AREA WILL
MOST LIKELY SEE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AS
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WERE HOLDING JUST A BIT TOO FAR EAST.
EVENING UPDATE WILL BE REMOVING POPS IN ALL OTHER AREAS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VARIABLE WINDS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EVENING CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 06Z. WINDS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
DRAINAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A DENVER CYCLONE
DEVELOPING TO OUR EAST KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
PLACE AT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAYS RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 10 PM AS CONVECTION AND STRONGEST GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
OVER IN MOST AREAS BY THEN. RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN ON MONDAY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 LOOKS
GOOD WHERE MORE HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH A HIGH OF 101 AT KDEN
AS OF 2 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GFS AND HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FORM
OVER THE PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PARK COUNTY TO DENVER NORTHEAST
TO STERLING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS FOR
MONDAY. RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 100 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY BREAK IT
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A HIGH IN THE LOW 100S LIKELY. WITH THE DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY. WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
FIRE WEATHER...RADAR SHOWING WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND DO NOT
THINK ANY RAINFALL HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET. HAVE HAD 10-15 CLOUD
TO GROUND STRIKES SO FAR AND WOULD EXPECT MORE AS THE DAY
PROGRESS...THUS WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
EXPECT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
ACROSS THE EASTERN...HOT..VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR MONDAY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MDLS DO
ENTRAIN SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WISE...PERSISTENCE THE
RULE WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES SO SHUD TIE OR
BREAK OUR STREAK IN DENVER OF 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR OVER 100
DEGREES. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND BECOMES
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...SO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A BIT MORE
WESTERLY. AS A RESULT...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME MORE
WEST TO EAST...SO WL CARRY THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ONTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. INTERATIVE SOUNDINGS DO NOT GENERATE ANY
CAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVNG...BUT IT CLIMBS TO AROUND 600-700 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 03Z MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER MAY BE NECESSARY ON TUESDAY...WITH A THE PRESENCE OF A BIT
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAY HIT THE
DENVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE DIRECTION TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
PLAINS MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KAPA AND KDEN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAINFALL AT MOST IS EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ211>213-
215-217-218-241-244>251.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE
HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE
DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000
J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO
BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL.
WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL
IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE.
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED
DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A
ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN
THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A
DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION
IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT.
ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS
AND SOME 12 NAM DATA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US
LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER
LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP
ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS
AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD POOL HAS PRODUCED +TSRA/-SHRA
OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KGFL HAS HAD THUNDERSTORM
AROUND 17Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS TONIGHT INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 7KT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BT MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTSON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE
HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE
DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000
J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO
BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL.
WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL
IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE.
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED
DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A
ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN
THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A
DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION
IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT.
ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS
AND SOME 12 NAM DATA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US
LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER
LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP
ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS
AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL
FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH
21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR KPOU.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM...RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING
PLACE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER JUST ABOUT EVERY PEAK
IN THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD POOL WITH H500 TEMPS ANALYZED BY RUC AT
-19C MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AREA. COLDEST UPPER LEVEL TEMPS
WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALY FORECAST AREA AND SO BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS NORTH. HOWEVER...ALBANY 12Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWED
ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATER TODAY AROUND MAX HEATING THAT A
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER ANY PART OF THE AREA. WHILE A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MOST STORMS WILL HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SOME SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THINGS LOOKS TO QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
AS COLD POOL MOVES EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS
AND SOME 12 NAM DATA.
PREVIOUS...
A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS STILL SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES IS TRACKING
TOWARD OUR REGION. SOME NEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TODAY ALONG THE DEW POINT
BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE DEW
POINT BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SOME
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG THE
SECONDARY SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY NOW...AND SOME OF THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL WIND
CONVERGENCE.
SO...EASTERN AREAS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF CLOUD COVER
MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. CLOUD SHIELD IS MAKING PROGRESS EAST. ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE OF
COOLING AND DRYING TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S...SOME 70S COOLER AREAS SUCH AS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US
LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER
LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP
ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS
AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL
FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH
21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR KPOU.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF POTENT TROUGHING ARRIVING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND FINALLY BACK INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NE
STATES/ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OF MOST INTEREST TO OUR FORECAST IS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS SEEN CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOESN`T GET MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A PW VALUES JUST
SHY OF 2.5". FOR LATE JUNE THIS NUMBER IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OF VALUES.
AT THE SURFACE...OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN THE WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS THIS SURFACE FEATURE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 2.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES IS NOT OVERLY TIGHT EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE FORECAST DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PICTURE OF THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE/SE OF THE MS DELTA.
THEREAFTER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SOLUTIONS. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE UNTIL LATE
MONDAY BEFORE BEING NUDGED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MISSES
THIS ENERGY AND BEGINS TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS
DURING MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE OF LITTLE HELP WITH A SPLIT
OF MEMBERS HEADING EAST AND WEST...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN LEANS
TOWARD A WESTWARD DRIFT BY LATER MONDAY.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...FORECAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WILL FEATURE A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF GUIDANCE...AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
TODAY...WITH THE VERY HIGH VALUES OF COLUMN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE LOW...AND DIURNAL HEATING...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH. FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL FEATURE LESS
COVERAGE OF GENERALLY SCT LIGHTER SHOWERS...AND MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE WE GET SOME HEATING THOUGH...EXPECT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
HIGH...HOWEVER WITH A PW CLOSE TO 2.5"...POCKETS OF LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. LOTS OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
LIMITED HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY TO THE 80S. WAVE MODELS SHOW A SLOW
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SWELL WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TO AT
LEAST A MODERATE LEVEL. THIS ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL TO OUR WEST IN A
POSITION THAT WILL FAVOR BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE
EASTERN GULF. BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND ZONES. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO FILL IN FURTHER INLAND
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF BANDS ORIENT THEMSELVES TO FAVOR TRAINING OF
CELLS.
MONDAY...AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF AND
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS NORTH AND CHANCE POPS
SOUTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF/SREF QPF.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF...I HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY AND JUST THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY.
FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING WELL TO THE WEST...DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST 50
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEATING.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST ALLOWING
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BE MORE
OF A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN RESULTING IN NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MORNINGS SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY...FOLLOWED BY A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE EVENINGS WILL
START OFF WITH ISOLATED STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PGD WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND THEN
STALL SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW AND MARINERS
ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND LIKELY REMAIN
AT THESE ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A
SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 76 84 77 / 80 80 80 70
FMY 86 75 86 76 / 90 80 80 60
GIF 87 73 84 74 / 80 70 80 60
SRQ 87 76 86 77 / 90 80 80 70
BKV 87 73 85 73 / 80 80 80 70
SPG 86 77 85 79 / 80 80 80 70
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8
PM EDT MONDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS
LATER TODAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THESE FEATURES
MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/WDLY SCTD STORMS OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING SO WILL MENTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING HAVE NOW MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (OFB) HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OSAGE COUNTY...THEN NORTHWARD TO EAST OF MARYSVILLE. NORTHEAST OF
THIS OFB...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. WHILE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE OFB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KS. THOUGH
THE HRRR AND ARW DID SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
ALONG THE NE BORDER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OFB ALONG THE NE BORDER. I
INSERTED 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS BROWN...NEMAHA...JACKSON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN CASE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE TO
THE KS BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO
THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE C RANGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 102 TO 104
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ATTM...I ONLY HAVE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 103
DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...THEN HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GARGAN
LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT.
...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN EXPECTED TO FORCE A HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ANY MODIFYING OR COOLING INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE MODEST WITH EAST WINDS MON INTO TUES YET HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH MON/TUES. WIDE SPREAD OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MON/TUES AND PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN COOL BIAS OF GFS BASED NUMBERS.
HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDS INTO THURS AS UPPER
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND
100 AND PERHAPS 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA
WITH AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE EAST OF KTOP AND KFOE BY 19Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS TO 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 21 TO 28
KTS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT 100 DEGREES NEAR KIT CARSON COLORADO. 15Z
RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES AND STILL MAINTAINS
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 105 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO 110-112 FROM
HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TEMPS AND RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT YIELD HEAT INDICES OF
105-107 DEGREES. PER COORDINATION WITH DDC AND GID FORECAST
OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM CDT THROUGH 8 PM
CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102
IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM
TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER.
HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC
TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-
DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES
INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
+17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS
NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE
HIGHLIGHTS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY
BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A
FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS
AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FOR KGLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 00Z.
THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD THE
TERMINAL.
FOR KMCK SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ004-015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...007
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
827 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102
IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM
TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER.
HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC
TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-
DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES
INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
+17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS
NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE
HIGHLIGHTS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY
BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A
FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS
AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DELIVER VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WIND FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDT
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
ZONES AND GRIDS UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 419.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO
DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40
KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END
AT 4Z.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED
CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA
HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF
THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS
END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH H85 DEWPOINTS NEAR 15C, STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS
NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO
FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO
FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED
QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO
BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0
P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO
DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40
KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END
AT 4Z.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED
CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA
HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF
THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS
END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO
FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO
FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED
QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO
BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0
P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
JPB
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN SKC
AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING.
SURFACE DWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...
WHICH CERTAINLY LENDS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
SAGINAW BAY BEFORE FROPA SHIFTED ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
ONLY SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN...AND WILL QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS JUST AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES...
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS
FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW
FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN
THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS.
AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH
PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN
OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT
FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW.
NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT
TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ-
GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A
FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE
PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE LOCALLY.
TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN
U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU
FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS.
THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE
BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/.
MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL
TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND
71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE
ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
/68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD.
TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO
NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE
MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS.
PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND
EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL
THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH
COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE
AIRMASS TRANSITIONS.
CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE.
DETAILS:
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT
HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER
SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE
AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA
LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND
THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT
ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF
AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK
OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/
SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID
80S/.
FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S
BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT
DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S
WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL
THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS.
GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL
THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT
WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON.
TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25
KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER.
MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON
LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...JPB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JA
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...THEN A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS ONTARIO FROM NEAR YQK THEN
DROPPING INTO NODAK AND FAR NW CORNER MN. ONE AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
DVLPG ACROSS ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER E-W BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
NODAK. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF THE NODAK AREA
ALLOWING IT TO EXPAND SE THIS EVE/TNGHT INTO CNTRL MN/WC WI AHD OF
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO/NE MN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. CDFNT DROPS INTO N MN THIS EVENING AND
THEN PICKS UP SPEED LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR IA BORDER BY 12Z.
NICE DRY AIRMASS PUSHES INTO AREA IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS 1025 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING INTO
THE 40S MAINLY ACROSS WI CWA WITH NE DRY NE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN ACROSS AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WORK BACK INTO AREA.
VERY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS AOA 590 DM INTO SW MN. SHUD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS
IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WC MN. MID LEVEL TEMPS PRETTY WARM
WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROF MOVING THRU BRING A
BIT COOLER AIRMASS INTO AREA. COOLER WNW FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR
BALANCE OF FORECAST WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN IA THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR A WARM FRONT...BUT ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ORIGINATING OUT OF VFR CEILINGS. WI AIRPORTS STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. SOME OF THE WEATHER MODELS
WE LOOK AT ARE SHOWING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND THERE
ARE IN FACT A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN FAR WESTERN
MN AND THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DON`T THINK THIS WILL
BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THE TAF SITES GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE MODELS AND ALSO SIMPLY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT IF WE WERE GETTING OUR HAD MUCH MORE RAIN .
KMSP...NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS WITH CIGS/VIS HOLDING NEAR
10000FT. ALREADY SEEING A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE
TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...
.SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
301 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK... AS A
SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE CONTINENT.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BUILDING TO OUR WEST SLIDES EAST. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
DEPRESSED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. OVERALL... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE MASS FIELDS THROUGH MIDWEEK... THEN DIFFER A BIT IN THE
TIMING OF THE RIDGE-SQUASHING SHORTWAVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... AND WILL THEN STICK CLOSER
TO THE GOING FORECAST AND LATEST ECMWF FOR THE LATER PERIODS. THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK... AND GIVEN THE STOUTNESS OF THE UPPER RIDGE PREFER THE
SLOWER ECMWF.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION ONGOING OVER
THE PLAINS... WHERE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS INTERACTING WITH GOOD
MUCAPE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE. AN ARM
OF SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BEEN IMPACTING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY LINES UP WELL WITH LOWER CPD VALUES AND ASCENT
EVIDENT ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE... AND ALSO HAS 250-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH WHICH TO WORK BASED ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THINGS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL TRY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST TODAY... WHILE REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
MCS SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA... SINCE THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND BETTER MOISTURE NEVER
REALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN TO OUR NORTH IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN KICKER FOR TONIGHT/S SECONDARY FRONTAL/TROUGH
PASSAGE IS THE MORE ROBUST WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT THE
CURRENT TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH... IT WILL STILL HELP PUSH THE
FRONT/TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... AND DRIVE LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. KEPT SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THOUGH MOST OF TONIGHT GIVEN THE
WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRYING TO WORK INTO THE
AREA TODAY... THEN THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FOCUS OF THE
TWO FEATURES.
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY... AND REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
THEN SURGE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES OVER OUR AREA. LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY FOR NOW... WHEN SOME ARE INTRODUCED OVER THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED EARLIER
COINCIDENT WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE
GUIDANCE IS TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN RESPONSE TO THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
OVER OUR AREA... BUT SHOULD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVE
WITH THE WARMER AIR... WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME PCPN GET WRUNG
OUT.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN
THE WARMEST OF AIR ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS...
WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE
SLOWER EVOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
AMPLITUDE OF THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW. IN ADDITION... CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUALLY WORK
TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE... WHICH WILL SLOW THE OVERALL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THINGS... MUCH LIKE WE SAW AT THE START OF
THIS PAST WEEK. THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HANDLE SUCH THINGS VERY
WELL... WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN NOT ONLY SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF... BUT ALSO THE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW... INCLUDED
SOME CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE THERE IS REASONABLE
CONSENSUS THAT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
BY THAT POINT IN TIME. ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THINGS... RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK... WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE 90 CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER UPSTREAM CONVECTION
AND THE CLOUDINESS IT COULD CREATE FOR US... AS WELL AS TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES... DIDN/T GO NEARLY AS ADIABATIC MIXING MIGHT
SUGGEST. AS WE GET NEARER IN TIME SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
HIGHS WILL CERTAINLY BE MADE... AND WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE
UPWARD UNLESS PCPN OR SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN/EC SD HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE
SE...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SC MN.
HOWEVER...-SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
HEAVIER SHRA NEAR RWF/AXN BETWEEN 6-12Z. CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS
STC/RNH/MSP AS THE LATEST RAP HAS MORE DEVELOPMENT AFT 6Z ACROSS
CENTRAL MN...EXTENDING SE TOWARD MSP. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
MASS...WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH AT THESE PLACES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA BY 12Z. RNH/EAU...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
TSRA/SHRA UNTIL AFT 12Z. WNDS WILL BECOME SE/ESE OVERNIGHT AND
BEGIN TO GUSTS DURING THE MORNING.
MSP...SHRA/TSRA IN EC SD/SW MN WILL HOLD IN THIS AREA THRU 9Z.
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AFT 9Z...SO WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE VCSH BY 9Z. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM BASED ON THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...OR AT LEAST
UNTIL AFT 12-15Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE SE TOWARD MSP BY 12Z. MORE ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
OUTLOOK...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
946 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT...
COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PUMPING UP A LOT OF
VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER MB
HAS SPREAD COOLER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS THRU MOST OF NE MT. THIS
HAS PRODUCED A VERY PRONOUNCED NE-SW TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA...HIGHS THAT RANGED FROM AROUND 70 NE TO ALMOST 100 SW.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS A STRONG SE FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SD/NE WHICH HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREAS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S. THIS WON`T CHANGE OVERNIGHT...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
DON`T CHANGE EITHER...THUS WILL EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRU
10 AM MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE LOW OVERCAST LIKELY TO FORM OVER
SD/NE AND SPREAD OUR WAY...JUST REACHING OUR SE BY MORN.
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG NE-MT BORDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BRINGING
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE AREA AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
CHANNEL. WHILE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT
JUST BELOW 700 MB...AND VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...MODELS
INDICATE INCREASED LIFT AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT COULD
LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TOWARD
MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP POPS WELL BELOW MENTION IN WORDED
PRODUCTS. HRRR IS WAY OUT OF WHACK WITH THIS TOO. MINOR UPDATE TO
MANLY WINDS/CLOUDS. SIMONSEN
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY... AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING FEATURING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA IS EXPECTED
TO QUIET DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OR SO AS EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING...THUS THE LAKE WIND EXPIRATION TIME OF 9 PM LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK THAT WAS PRESENT THIS
MORNING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
THIS VERY MOIST AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT COULD BE A ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE 4000 J/KG. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/BREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS PUSHING NORTHWARD
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND FOR WEAK FEATURES...THAT
ARE NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS...TO TRIGGER SEVERE CONVECTION
DURING THE TYPICALLY NOT FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT HOURS....FELT IT
PRUDENT TO FEATURE THE POTENTIAL BY INCREASING POPS AND SEVERE
WORDING. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LIKEWISE MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF WITH
TEMPS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY A DRY LINE WILL SET UP AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EITHER WAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SURGE INTO THE 90S NORTH TO TRIPLE DIGITS
SOUTH AS THE THERMAL RIDGE LINGERS FOR ONE LAST DAY.
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...INTENSIFIES INTO A TIGHT
LITTLE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS NE INTO CANADA. THIS DOES BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NE MT TUE NIGHT. THE WINDOW OF
INSTABILITY IS NARROW...WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS TO OUR N.
THIS ALSO DRAWS IN VERY DRY AIR FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE
SYSTEM...QUICKLY SWEEPING AWAY AND VERY HUMID SSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THUS EXPECT ONLY A VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND SO HAVE LOWERED POPS.
LAST 2 GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN UP TO 65 KT WIND AT 850 MB BEHIND
THE FRONT. OTHER MODELS UP TO 45 KT. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL LIKELY TO MIX TO SURFACE EVEN AT NIGHT...SO
IT WILL WINDY TUE NIGHT/WED...AND COOLER WED.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD HAS ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A DRY
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WITH SLOWLY RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM BACK UP TO AROUND 90.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. SUNDAY DAY 8
THOUGH...MODELS DEVELOP DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER OR NOT TO START
MOVING A TROUGH FROM THE W TOWARD OUR AREA. WILL STAY MAINLY DRY
UNTIL THIS BETTER RESOLVED. HICKS/SIMONSEN
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... BUT ARE NOT LIKELY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 20
SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING THEN CALMING DURING THE
MORNING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
UPDATE TO ZFP AND WRKAFP FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME WEAK VORTICITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. CHECKING THE NEW
WRF SOUNDING FOR HARLOWTON...CIN WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 50 J/KG BY
00Z. LOW TO MID-LEVEL E FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THIS AREA...AND THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
FORCING ALOFT...COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT THE GOING POPS ALONE. THE 12Z
WRF AND LATEST HRRR KEPT THE REGION DRY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WAS LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
EXPECT VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY. THE LONGER THE FRONT HOLDS OFF THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AND WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING COULD SEE
AREAS FROM BILLINGS EAST WELL INTO THE 100S IF FRONT HOLDS OFF
UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOKS WEAK
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH EARLY WEEK MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO
WARM TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION AND LATER WEEK WINDS DOWNSLOPING
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE 80S. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY
SATURDAY FOR TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.
GRASS FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE GREENNESS
DATA SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 70 TO 85 PERCENT OF THE GRASS
ALREADY CURED OUT. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF 90-100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GRASSES WILL ONLY
GET DRIER. LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT
AND DON`T SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADD LIGHTNING
STARTS...BUT WITH FOURTH OF JULY APPROACHING FIREWORKS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR FIRE STARTS IN THE NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE CONCERN IN HWO AND GRAPHIC
AND WILL CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH LATER SHIFTS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH AN MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A KLVM-KLWT LINE. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 061/099 066/099 068/096 059/088 059/084 060/085
0/U 10/U 01/B 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T
LVM 087 051/095 057/093 059/088 050/083 050/081 050/081
1/U 10/N 01/U 22/T 20/U 01/U 12/T
HDN 091 057/101 062/101 065/099 056/090 057/086 057/086
0/U 10/G 01/G 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T
MLS 090 062/097 068/102 070/100 062/090 061/086 061/085
1/U 10/U 01/G 23/T 31/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 089 061/094 067/100 069/099 061/090 060/085 060/085
1/U 10/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 12/T 12/T
BHK 084 060/087 064/096 067/098 061/089 059/083 058/082
1/N 10/N 02/T 22/T 21/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 093 056/098 062/096 064/095 056/087 055/082 054/082
0/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIES JUST SOUTH OF GREAT
FALLS AND STRETCHES BACK THROUGH MEAGHER COUNTY. HRRR PRODUCT A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AS IT DEPICTS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AS STAYING
TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. EMANUEL
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW SHORT-LIVED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY GO. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED MID-/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW EVE MAINLY FROM KGTF TO KCTB WITH
CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS VCNTY KCTB AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION AS A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA.
CONVECTION TODAY WAS LIMITED BY A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND
A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MINOR DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY IN IDAHO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS SATURDAY LOOK
VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY CONVECTIVE SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP THUS ENDING MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
ZONES UNDERNEATH MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROF TO THE WEST. THE TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT
GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND BRING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE DECREASING TO THE EAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL HAVE RATHER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM THE
WEST WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ZELZER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-TEENS...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRIMARY AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE MID-SLOPE AND VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND HELENA THROUGH
BROADWATER AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES TO NORTHERN GALLATIN
COUNTY (ESSENTIALLY ALL OF FIRE ZONE 118 AND PARTS OF FIRE ZONE
116). DISCUSSION WITH FIRE MANAGERS INDICATE THAT FUEL MOISTURE IN
LIGHT FUEL TYPES IS ALREADY NEAR-CRITICAL BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
HEAVIER FUELS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CRITERIA AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ON SUN/MON...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WEEKEND SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE WINDS AND UPDATE
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS NEEDED. WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 55 78 56 88 / 20 20 20 10
CTB 54 70 54 78 / 40 60 70 20
HLN 56 84 55 91 / 10 20 20 10
BZN 48 86 50 92 / 10 10 10 0
WEY 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 50 83 50 87 / 10 0 10 10
HVR 56 78 58 89 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 52 78 55 86 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMANUEL/GUSTAFSON
LONG TERM...ZELZER
AVIATION...BLANK
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
136 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR
60 MPH WELL BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL
FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-
040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL
FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENTAND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
748 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MONDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK THEN ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF TORONTO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE THUMB OF MI. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS FAR AS THE COLD FRONT GOES...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL COME THROUGH AS A BROKEN LINE OR WHETHER ALL OF
WESTERN NY WILL GET WET. ITS JUST ONE OF THOSE MANY EVENTS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GENERALLY THE TIMING IS SUCH THAT ANY LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NY...WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...TOGETHER WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OWING TO
WEAK INSTABILITY BUT STRONG FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
SREF DATA HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY...ALONG THE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING A CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE.
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND HENCE QPF IS LOW WITH
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LESS THAN THAT
FARTHER WEST...WITH SOME AREAS OF WESTERN NY POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER FOR AWHILE...BUT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
ON MONDAY THE DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MID
LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF AND
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ASCENT TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY. OF
GREATER IMPORTANCE...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LATE MORNING ON. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW...WITH LESSER CHANCES
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONLY THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF NY WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BE DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LAKESHORES WITH
THE LEAST UPSLOPE BUT MOST LAKE SHADOWING. HOWEVER OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND +6C...WHICH
WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ASSUMING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY WHILE DIMINISHING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT WILL
BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S...AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THE SUITE OF MODELS (CMC/NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ADVANCE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE DRY
AIR TO PASS ACROSS WNY WITH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHED
CHCS FOR SHOWERS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH STILL
COOL AIR ALOFT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST UNDER MORE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
TOUCHING INTO THE 70S...WHILE TO THE EAST MID AND UPPER 60S WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...THOUGH
NOT AS COOL AS THE PRECEDING NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 50S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW SPIRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANY CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE FAR EAST...AND LOW CHCS
AT THIS. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING OMEGA BLOCK...STILL
CENTERED NEAR 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADA MARITIMES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN
CANADA...CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UPON THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGE
AND FORCE SUMMER WARMTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED
SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE RID OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEARING OF A
WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS TO COVER FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FOR NOW. MODELS BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ERASING THE MUGGY AND VERY WARM AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF
TRACK...SATURDAY WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND DRIER.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA A
CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY TOWARDS
THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL BE JUST A LOW CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND
BRING A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY AS A BROKEN BAND ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY SUMMER STANDARDS WILL ENTER THE LOWER
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MONDAY MORNING EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATER IN THE DAY
EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY TO SCATTER OUT AND RETURN
TO VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEN SET
IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ALLOWS AN UNSTABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP...AND A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A LONGER
FETCH ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. ON LAKE ERIE A
SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP WAVES IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN
NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST
OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN GENERAL...HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS MEDIUM RANGE
OUTLOOK APPEARS TO FEATURE SOMEWHAT DRAMATIC CHANGES AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A FLAT AND WARM
RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTING THAT CNY/NEPA WILL BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...MINOR IMPULSES ARE LIKELY TO TRANSIT THE AREA AT ANY TIME
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL DRYING IN THE
MEAN RH FIELDS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND WILL REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TANDEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A 1-2 SD ANOMALOUS WARMING DEVELOPING IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
MOS/HPC GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHILE DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
FRIDAY WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE 90 AGAIN. LASTLY...TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS. HPC/TPC LEANING WITH THE ECMWF AND
BRING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO REAL
EFFECT TO US SHOWING UP DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VCNTY OF
KRME THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF SCT-BKN VFR CU
FIELDS ACROSS CNY AND NEPA THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCT CI OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING FOG SEEMS LIKELY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY KELM IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD. FOG ALSO
PSBL AT KRME DUE TO HVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY ONLY
MVFR. FOG CHECKLIST PARAMETERS ARE INCONCLUSIVE AT KELM FOR FOG
REDUCING CONDITIONS TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS...BUT HISTORIC CASES IN
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SUGGEST PREVAILING MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR AND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS POSSIBLE. LOW CHC THAT STATION WILL
LOCK IN FOR SVRL HOURS...BUT CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
ON SUNDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CIGS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SW AROUND 5 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA.
MON...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA.
TUES...VFR. CHC SHRA.
WEDS - THUR...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1215 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN
NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST
OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT
WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE
POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND
THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP
SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER
MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z
EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG
WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER
TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR
KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT
KELM.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG.
SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1205 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN
NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT
ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR
WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN
NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY
COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT
WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE
POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND
THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP
SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER
MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z
EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG
WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER
TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR
KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT
KELM.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG.
SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
953 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL TRENDS. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...I STILL TOPPED THEM IN 40-50-ISH RANGE FOR ONEIDA
COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES WHERE PWAT WILL
BE NEAR AN INCH. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO
POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE
PRETTY COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT
WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE
POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND
THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP
SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER
MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z
EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG
WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER
TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR
KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT
KELM.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG.
SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
814 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS MELLOWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MIDDLE EVENING. THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT HAS TRAVELED ENTIRELY
NW OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF
TODAY BEGINNING EARLY...CONVECTION EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
REMAINED LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE
PRODUCING FRESH AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION SW OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY BUT
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS THE PULSE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT.
GIVEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION AND CIRRO-STRATUS FROM DEBBY
THINK OUR MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND OPTED FOR THE MILDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE INTO EARLY MONDAY...LOW/MIDDLE 70S AND MUGGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER MON ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST...EXTENDING 90+ HIGHS ALMOST TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THERE WILL BE NO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH WILL
HINDER DEEP CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. THE MAIN
PRECIP EVENT WILL BE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES MON
EVENING...ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ZERO IT IS
RATHER LOW. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LESS OF A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND OR SMALL HAIL.
LATE MON NIGHT COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF TUE.
850 TEMPS DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES C FROM MON TO TUE AND DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
AN INCH TUE AND COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TUE...LOW
TO MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALLOW FOR
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP BELOW TO WELL
BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS USED
IGNORING THE GFS SOLUTION FOR DEBBY...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COULD END UP HIGHER TUE
AND TEMPERATURES TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
AS COOL AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY FOR SUMMERTIME IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR LATE JUNE AS WELL. AS THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVES
IN ON THURSDAY SOME VERY GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN MAY GET UNDERWAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH SITS WELL REMOVED EAST OF THE U.S. IN THE
ATLANTIC. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THESE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE FOR A GRADUAL ONSET OF SOME TRUE SUMMER-LIKE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR TOP 100
DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE
OCEAN. TOUGH TO SAY IF AND WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN. MODELS HINT
THAT COULD BE IN ASSOC WITH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGING ALOFT SAT
INTO SUN. MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK IN DOING SO AND POPS WILL BE
CAPPED AT 20 AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EVENING CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS LBT
THROUGH 01Z-02Z BUT OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAF. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN TODAY. LAST NIGHT FLO AND LBT HIT THE
DECK HARD BUT CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT TONIGHT AS
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS IDEAL WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND
SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING FLO AND LBT DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM
TO MVFR. HRRR AND WRF-4KM SHOWING PCPN MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WILL HAVE
TO GO WITH TEMPO/PROB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
SINCE CONVECTION COULD FLAIR UP AT ANY TIME AND I DONT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN NAILING DOWN A TIME FOR THIS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF
REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN
EXACT LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...S-SSE WINDS 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FEET EVERY 8-9
SECONDS CURRENTLY IN THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE A GREAT
DEAL INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY AS WINDS OFF NORTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA
INCREASE AS DEBBY PUSHES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AREA. THUS SEAS UP
TO 3 FEET DAYBREAK MONDAY POSSIBLE...FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS APPROACHING THE SC COASTAL
WATERS EARLY MONDAY...REPRESENTING THE OUTER RAIN SHIELD OF DEBBY.
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE WATERS...MORE FAVORED
OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE COLUMN BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MON AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE WIND
FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FOR TS DEBBY
KEEPS THE STORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS IS THE CASE LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM KY/OH
VALLEY. WINDS WOULD BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE AND 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS SOLUTION MOVES DEBBY ACROSS FL AND THEN TURNS THE STORM
NORTHEAST...PASSING IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT DEEPENS. IF
THAT HAPPENS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH HIGHER
SEAS WOULD BE LIKELY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AT
LEAST A SCA TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE 12 TO 18
HOUR PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MON AND MON NIGHT MAY
PUSH SEAS TO 6 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE...REQUIRING A SCA HEADLINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WASHES OUT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH GRADUALLY FORMS. WIND MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO WSW ON
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WIND SPED WILL
TEND TO BUILD OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY
GETTING INTO THE 10 TO 15 OR EVEN 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THOUGH AS THIS WILL BE COAST-PARALLEL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BUILDING SEAS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF 20 NM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS
STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED
VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TONIGHT...
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO
SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUNDAY...
A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
IN ERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED PUSH OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT... AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. EXPECT RESIDUAL DAYTIME CONVECTION TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING... LIKELY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS
AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOLDING
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RECOVERING SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE NAM HOLDS
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES NOSING INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ALONG WITH PW VALUES OVER 150% OF NORMAL. WITH THIS
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BASED ON THE MEAN STEERING FLOW FROM THE
WNW... STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST DURING THE NIGHT... AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESSES JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST... WE MAY SEE PERSISTENT SLOW-MOVING OR EVEN BACKBUILDING
ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. AT THE VERY
LEAST... THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IS QUITE HIGH... AND A SHROUD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING FROM
SUCH ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF RALEIGH IN THE EVENING...
DECREASING A BIT AND BECOMING SUPPRESSED IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NC
LATE. WARM LOWS OF 69-73.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN THE
EASTERN STATES... OUR WIND FIELDS IMPROVE WHILE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE
NAM`S DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 KTS... AND
MLCAPE (PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GSO) INCREASES TO 2000-3000
J/KG WITH 30-50 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 100+ KT JET CORE CENTERED OVER MI NOSING TOWARD NC)
MAXIMIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS WILL K-INDEX VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
POTENTIALLY BECOMING ORGANIZED FROM NE TO SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
HEADING TOWARD THE ESE OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RISK
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS... AND MODEL-INDICATED CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER SUGGESTS A RISK OF HAIL AS WELL. GOOD HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH UP HIGHS TO 89-93. LOWS 62 NORTHWEST TO 68
SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT EASES TO THE SSE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS
AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND
STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A
THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS
STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED
VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TONIGHT...
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO
SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUNDAY...
A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS
AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND
STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A
THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN
TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND
MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO
RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92.
THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES
WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM
EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
-SMITH
TONIGHT:
EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE
EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS
AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND
STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A
THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BSD/NP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN
TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND
MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO
RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92.
THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES
WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM
EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
-SMITH
TONIGHT:
EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE
EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS
AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY
LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE
LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU
SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING
SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BSD/NP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN
TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND
MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO
RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92.
THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES
WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM
EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
-SMITH
TONIGHT:
EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE
EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR
REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE L/W TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST COVERING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY WE`LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
AIRMASS ASSOC WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER...
AS INDICATED BY CRASHING THICKNESS AND PWAT VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT... SUPPORTING HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND
LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW 60S. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT (0.25-0.4IN /
DAY) AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (10-15M /DAY)...THUS EXPECT
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK NW FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BACK UP TO 90 BY
THURSDAY AND THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASING PWAT...WILL
BRING POPS TO NEAR-CLIMO VALUES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) BY FRIDAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH DON`T EXPECT
MUCH BEYOND ISOLATED ACTIVITY GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISMS.
IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT FOR NOW...WHATEVER COMES OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC WEATHER AS
THE CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT EASTWARD OVER TIME KEEP
IT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS
AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY
LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE
LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU
SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING
SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BSD/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL A
BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A MAXIMUM IN THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. THESE
STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING
AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO CARRINGTON TO BISMARCK.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND AND BEGINNING TO SEE MORE PRONOUNCED CU
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL NEED
FORCING ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM IS
STILL NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS APPROACHING 50
KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR STILL SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION AND WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS LARGE
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
INCREASE TO BETWEEN +18 AND +22 C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...BUT CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE
PERIOD...COOLING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SAT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND WARM
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY KEEP US DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY FRI FOR
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...BUT EVEN THEN IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
SOUTH. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1044 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT THROUGH 00 UTC TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE MOVED INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
BEMIDJI TO FARGO. REMOVED ALL POPS THROUGH 18 UTC EXCEPT IN THIS
AREA WHERE A STRAY HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAY FALL.
15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM HALLOCK
TO COOPERSTOWN TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POOLING ALONG BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST
MLCAPE WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH OF A
CAP...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF AN 850 HPA JET IS
ABSENT. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM REMAINS NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER...BUT
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS. SPC PAINTS 5
PERCENT HAIL THRESHOLD ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 18 UTC ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT TIMING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT KEPT THEM
IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
SPATIAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ADD SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL
STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES.
MOST RECENT MODELS HAVE ALL INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE WYO ALTHOUGH QPF IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SW HALF OF FA GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION AND ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. MAIN UPPER SUPPORT TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE LARGE MCS ALONG SD/NE BORDER AREA
LIKELY INTERCEPTING DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FA THIS AM AND WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES GREATER THAN AN
INCH AND FAVORABLE SHEAR EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING. FARTHER NORTH AIRMASS MORE STABLE SO WILL CONFINED POPS TO
MAINLY SOUTH HALF OF FA.
LATER TODAY SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH
FAVORED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY EXPECT
MORE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
SWINGS SE. FAVORED INSTABILITY/CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA HOWEVER
WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTH ANY WHERE ALONG BOUNDARY
HAS SOME POTENTIAL. SOLAR WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY SO
DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL UNSURE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD LIKELY SEE
A FEW STRONG STORMS.
BOUNDARY EXITS FA TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSS OF
HEATING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. BASED ON BOUNDARY
LOCATION WILL LIMIT POPS LATER TONIGHT TO FAR EASTERN FA. ONLY
SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH COLUMN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
DOES MOVE IN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY FOR PLENTY OF SOLAR AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL WARMING. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN
THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PHASES
BACK UP WITH THE ECMWF. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THU.
STABILITY DECREASES ON TUESDAY HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. WILL LOWER POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. ECMWF KEEP
UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAPPED ATMOSPHERE YET ON THU. WILL TRIM BACK POPS
SOME THU.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/DK/VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
940 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING ONTO LAKE ERIE
AND WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND 1045 PM.
ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
COVER WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH
ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MAKE AN ENTRY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. ONLY PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH
THIS PACKAGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVED OVER LAKE HURON AND I
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD ERIE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET SO WILL GO AHEAD
AND ADD A MENTION IN THE TEMPO GROUP AROUND 06Z.
EXPECTING SOME CLEARING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SHADOW TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS TOMORROW
MORNING ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...TK/REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
736 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG CHANGES
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH
ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MAKE AN ENTRY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. ONLY PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH
THIS PACKAGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVED OVER LAKE HURON AND I
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD ERIE. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET SO WILL GO AHEAD
AND ADD A MENTION IN THE TEMPO GROUP AROUND 06Z.
EXPECTING SOME CLEARING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SHADOW TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS TOMORROW
MORNING ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...TK/REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH
COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING
TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS EXITED THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
SEEING SOME LOW BASED MVFR CU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT THESE BASES SHOULD BECOME HIGHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT DEALS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS
POTENTIAL. NAM AND GFS NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG POTENTIAL. WE ARE MIXING
MORE THAN FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE THREAT SOME. HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THINKING BEST CHANCE OF FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
PUT IN THE TAFS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS
TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER
WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO
65.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT
TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A
FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED
BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER
WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER
END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH
COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING
TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS
TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER
WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO
65.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT
TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A
FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED
BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER
WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER
END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BOARDER WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING MAY BE HAMPERED SOME
TODAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE
MENTION OF FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR CONFIDENCE
REASONS...IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
UNABLE TO MIX OUT TODAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE WATCH AND SEVERE WORDING IN
ZONES. LOW LEVEL JET IS AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER SEVERE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED AS MOST STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE ELEVATED.
&&
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.
EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN WY LATE THIS
AFTN...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD TONIGHT.
SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.
EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
252 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies again today and tonight. Some of the
thunderstorms could be strong and capable of producing heavy rain
and gusty winds. Showers should be more scattered on Sunday and
Monday, and mainly limited to the mountainous areas of the Inland
Northwest. There is a good chance that Tuesday will be cool, rainy
and breezy as a vigorous low pressure system moves through the
region. A warming and drying trend is likely Wednesday through
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: Another active evening in store. Large low
pressure system continues to send short waves through our area
with moist southerly flow. One wave fired severe convection this
morning over northeast WA. That convection died off but more is
just starting to develop. SPC has this area in a slight risk for
this evening. HRRR suggests that this convection will move
north/east of our area in the next few hours. Meanwhile another
short wave has created a line of convection that has moved into
south- central WA. PDT has already warned on the storm near Walla
Walla. HRRR predicts this storm to move onto the Palouse for the
next couple of hours.
Behind this there is still additional showers/storms over central
OR that will move into our area tonight. While we will be lacking
the daytime heating the continued support from aloft means that
this activity probably won`t just shut off with sunset.
Shower activity on Monday should be confined to the northern
Mountains. Thunderstorms are still a possibility but the strongest
storms should be well to our north and east. RJ
Sunday night through Monday: Deep upper level pressure system will
continue to spin off the Northwest coastline. An upper level wave
rotating around the low on Sunday will head north of the region
as some short wave ridging of higher pressure moves into the
region. This will result in much of the region drying out and
warming up a bit for Monday. We will remain very unstable with
CAPEs across eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle 400-800
J/KG. However, this instability will come with around 20-80 J/KG of
convective inhibition (CIN). Models do not show any waves of energy
moving across the region on Monday afternoon with the short wave
ridging, thus I do not think we will be able to realize this
convective energy. The mountains will have the best shot at some
showers. The Panhandle mountains will have the easiest time to
break the cap with around 20 J/KG of CIN. We may see a
thunderstorm or two across these mountains, thus I left a slight
chance of thunderstorms here.
Monday night into Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system
offshore will finally push into the region as it moves off to the
northeast through Oregon and finally into British Columbia/Alberta
by Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate a moist and very
dynamic system as the low passes through the region. We will see
an increasing chance for showers late Monday night with the bulk
of the rainfall moving through during the day on Tuesday.
Considering the good agreement between models and the high
precipitation amounts being produced, I bumped up POPs and QPF
values significantly. The Okanogan Highlands over to the northern
Panhandle will likely pick up to around 0.50 to 1.0 inch Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Some instability accompanying the low pressure
passage may result in some thunderstorms across the eastern two-
thirds of the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will be much colder
with this system. /SVH
Tuesday night through Saturday: Closed low will continue to exit
the region as a ridge builds across the intermountain west.
Tuesday night residual showers are possible, mainly along the
US/Canadian border. After that, we dry out and start to warm
up. There is some model discrepancy about what to do Friday and
the weekend. The previous four runs of the ECMWF showed a
negatively tilted trough moving across the area starting Friday
afternoon. However, the latest run holds the ridge strong, and is
more like the GFS. Kept some mountain showers across the north
and cascades through Saturday given the uncertainty at this time.
Temperatures Wednesday will start to increase, but still be
several degrees below average. Then Thursday through Saturday we
will see temperatures at least average, with Friday being the
warmest day with temps about 5 degrees above average for this time
of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Washington
this morning. This activity should continue through 21Z before
gradually moving into southern BC. More thunderstorms will develop
along the ID/MT border this afternoon. Additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move into the area from Oregon this
afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with
these showers. Abundant clouds tonight should prevent the formation
of widespread fog or stratus but localized IFR cig/vis is possible.
RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 76 53 81 54 62 / 60 30 10 10 30 80
Coeur d`Alene 56 76 53 82 53 61 / 70 40 10 10 30 80
Pullman 53 74 51 79 51 64 / 60 10 10 10 40 80
Lewiston 59 84 58 86 59 72 / 40 10 10 10 40 70
Colville 53 76 51 85 53 61 / 70 60 10 10 30 90
Sandpoint 55 75 49 80 51 57 / 80 60 10 20 20 90
Kellogg 53 76 53 82 52 57 / 70 30 10 20 40 90
Moses Lake 54 81 52 84 56 71 / 20 20 0 10 40 50
Wenatchee 54 78 54 81 56 68 / 30 20 0 0 40 40
Omak 52 78 50 84 54 68 / 50 60 10 10 30 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue through early
Saturday morning. Additional locally heavy rain can be expected.
More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as low
pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally move out
of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier and more
stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Clearing over eastern WA and the Panhandle is allowing
temperatures to finally warm into the 80s. Coupled with the upper
40s to lower 50s dew points, the atmosphere should destabilize
rather nicely. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late this
afteroon. Convection has started to fire in the Clearwater Mtns,
similar to the HRRR forecast. Based on this I have a bit more
confidence in the HRRR, and so we`re looking at three potential
areas of convection.
The first is over the Clearwaters which should continue to fire
and propagate northward through the ID Panhandle this evening. The
second is forecast on the back end of the clouds moving into the
Okanogan Highlands. The convection would move northwest into the
north Cascades. The third area of convection would be over
northeast OR ahead of the main cloud band moving into the area
this evening. This convection would track along the ID/WA border
area this evening.
CAPE values are certainly supportive of moderate-sized hail. 0-6km
shear is good, but not great. Enough to keep the storms from being
pulse in nature but not sure there`s enough to make supercells.
Heavy rain is still possible in the Cascades. But since the storms
should be moving at a decent speed and this area hasn`t had a lot
of rain recently I`m thinking that the flash flood threat is
minimal. RJ
Saturday through Monday: Closed low will remain off the Oregon
coast through Monday. Models are in good agreement of pieces of
energy ejecting from the low and moving through the forecast area.
This will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. Saturday is the best day for more widespread showers
across the region. Instability parameters such as CAPE, LI and 0-6
km shear show very favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development Saturday. The best area of instability will stretch
up the Idaho Panhandle from Shoshone county north to the Canadian
border and bending back toward the northeast mountains of WA. Kept
the likely thunderstorm wording for the afternoon for these
locations and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Elsewhere,
slight chance exists across the basin, with a chance of thunder
along the Cascades and Spokane/Palouse, Okanogan areas. Sunday and
Monday there is still a threat of showers, but there is less
moisture to work with and the axis of instability is further east.
The best area of showers and thunderstorms will be across
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. With less moisture there is
also the possibility of less cloud cover, and with less cloud
cover, we could actually warm to near or slightly above average
temperatures. /Nisbet
Monday night through Friday: The persistent upper-low currently
off the WA coast will lift to the northeast through the region
bringing one last round of heavier precipitation before relatively
drier conditions settle in. Models are in decent agreement that
the low will lift E/NE through the area but still illustrate
subtle differences on timing, strength, and how much of its energy
pinches off and lingers over the region on Wed...yet they have come
into much better agreement then runs 24 hours ago. Following the
passage of the low pressure system, the general consensus amongst
the models is to strengthen a ridge of high pressure over the Pac
NW yielding mostly dry conditions for most locations. I use mostly
dry wording due to each model depicting several very small
midlevel impulses drifting under the ridge which could lead to
localized areas of deeper instability and chance for afternoon
showers/thunderstorms. We have utilized a blend of the EC/GFS for
the Monday night/Tuesday period and trend toward their ensemble
means thereafter.
This resulted in Monday night and Tuesday being the wettest days
of the period with models showing upwards of a quarter to three
quarters of an inch (heavier in thunderstorms) possible through
Tuesday night. The slower and more negatively tilted EC spreads
precipitation across all locations in this period while the quicker
GFS focuses more on the eastern third of WA and ID Panhandle...in
response to developing westerly flow in the lee of the Cascades.
The precipitation threat shifts toward the Canadian border for
Tuesday night and potentially into Wednesday afternoon (per slower
EC). By Wednesday night through Friday, upper-level ridging will
be the more dominate weather feature leading to a warming and
drying trend at most locations. As mentioned above, we will likely
be monitoring a few midlevel small-scale circulations each capable
of a introducing a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Given how
far out these events are and lack of QPF in the models, the
forecast indicates dry conditions based on the large scale
subsidence under the ridge but could may need to be adjusted over
small areas when and where these circulations track.
Temperatures will be cooling below normal on Wednesday with
abundant cloud cover and rainfall then begin a slow warming trend
each day returning near to above normal by Friday. SB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Attempted to time the end of the showers and thunderstorms
based on radar and rapid update guidance. KLWS should be done with
the thunder by 08Z, then the Spokane area by 09Z. Further west
showers will be ending around the same time. With all the moisture
left behind, some low clouds will linger in the Spokane area but not
expecting any cieling or visibility issues at the terminals.
Redevelopment is forecast for Saturday afternoon, with showers and
isolated thunderstorms over extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. JL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 74 53 75 50 79 / 90 70 60 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 57 73 53 76 50 80 / 90 80 70 20 10 10
Pullman 53 71 49 75 49 77 / 80 70 60 10 10 10
Lewiston 61 80 55 83 54 83 / 70 60 40 10 10 10
Colville 58 76 52 78 49 85 / 90 80 70 40 10 10
Sandpoint 55 73 52 73 48 79 / 90 90 80 40 20 20
Kellogg 54 71 50 77 48 79 / 90 80 70 40 20 20
Moses Lake 58 79 53 80 53 82 / 70 50 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 59 74 51 77 52 79 / 70 60 30 10 0 10
Omak 59 76 50 78 48 83 / 90 70 50 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1039 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.UPDATE...
STILL SOME WEAK 0 TO1 KM CAPE SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL OF ANY SHOWER WILL LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LOW LAKE CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE SCATTERED
HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE. LITTLE CUMULUS
POTENTIAL MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
THIS TIME...WITH LEADING EDGE OF WIND SHIFT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ALSO ACCELERATING WEST
SOUTHWEST AFTER INTERACTING WITH THIS WIND SHIFT.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AROUND 00Z MONDAY. WEAK TO
MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...BUT
NOT MUCH ELSE FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG ARE PRESENT IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT WOULD TAKE
SUSTAINED ROBUST ASCENT TO ACCESS IT.
THUS...KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
00Z ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR MODEL GENERATING CELLS ALONG FRONT BUT HAS
BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALL DAY...SO NOT CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES.
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS
SHOULD BRING A QUICK COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
THE HIGH MONDAY WILL FIGHT FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES OF 7 TO 11
DEGREES CELSIUS AND NORTHEAST FETCH. FOR NOW...DID NOT PUT ANY LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS IN FORECAST.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WL FALL OFF RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
THE LAKE BREEZE WL TAKE ITS TOOL ON TUE WITH LAKESHORE AREAS HOLDING
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND AREAS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LLJ PIVOTS ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SRN
WI ON WED. HOWEVER PUSH OF WARM AIR ONLY SERVES TO ENHANCE STRONG
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION OVER SOUTHERN WI WHILE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. HENCE NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO BE TRIGGERED BY LLJ ON WED.
THINKING 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER W.R.T. COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH WED
EVE. FOR NOW...WL LEAN MORE ON OTHER MORE CONSISTENT SHORT-MID
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
DID BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS ON WED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
925H TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 20S AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO PULL IN THE WARMER AIR.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN GENERAL THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WEAKER FLOW AND WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS. ECMWF...GFS AND GEMH DO
CARRY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CAN THU/THU
NGT...WHICH FLATTENS /AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ BLOCKING RIDGE FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF COOL FRONT ASSOCD
WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CARRIES THRU SRN WI DURING THU... HOWEVER
GEMH AND UKMO SLOWER WITH PASSAGE ON FRI. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE SOUTH WL RETARD ANY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM MOVING NWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO...UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO TRACK OF TS
DEBBY BUT APPEARS HPC LEANING TOWARD MORE NRN TRACK ASSOCD WITH
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN IL ON FRIDAY BUT MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING DRIER NW FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK
WHICH WOULD NUDGE SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. HENCE MAY KEEP SMALL
POPS IN ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOCUSES ON DEBBY TO
THE SOUTH AND UPSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGING...GFS CARRIES ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WI ON SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS BASED
MORE ON GFS NEVER GETS HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH MEMBERS GETTING MUCH MORE CHAOTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
LATEST ECMWF CONSISTENT ON PUMPING VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COOL FRONT WED NGT AND THU. PUSHED
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THU. THE HOT TEMPS AND DEWPTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WL NUDGE THE HEAT INDEX TOWARD TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING KMSN...KUES AND KMKE BY 23Z AND KENW BY 00Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME BRISK
BY THESE TIMES...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND 01Z TO 03Z MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
LOWER A BIT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
LINGERING IN THE 10 TO 12 KNOT RANGE. OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO MARINE ZONES...AND UNTIL 17Z MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING.
CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
346 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND FM ERN CO INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH MAINLY SLY MID LVL FLOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY
KEEP HIGH BASED TSTM ACTVITY MORE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT
CATEGORY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OVER NERN CO IT LOOKS
DRY WITH VERY HOT TEMPS AS READINGS WILL BE ABV 100 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME READINGS EXCEED
105 DEGREES OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 100
TODAY SO THAT SHOULD BE BKN. IF LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SSW
ALONG THE FNT RANGE AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALL
TIME HIGH OF 105 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED.
FOR TONIGHT MOST HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 03Z OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD
TSTMS ALONG THE WY-CO BORDER IN ZN 38 EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL HOLD THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AND 850 MB ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
ON THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...HIGHS MAY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 90S. THE ONLY CHANGES
IN MODELS COMPARED TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN
MID-LEVEL...EARLY MONSOONAL...MOISTURE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL A PLUME OF DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND
ABNORMALLY WARM. WHEREAS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE
FAVORING TRACKS THAT KEEP DEBBY WELL EAST OF HERE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ROTATE OUT OF MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS. THIS WILL BEST BE ANALYZED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION LOOKS TO REMAIN DIRE
UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKES IT AROUND THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STARTS ARE GOING TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH AFTERNOON/S ROUND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE WLY AS A WK SFC LOW WAS
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
REDEVELOPING IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING MORE
SSW BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. BY 00Z THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE
ACROSS. AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW. AT THIS
TIME NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE HAVE DECIDED TO
PLACE ALL OF THE FRONT RANGE IN A RED FLAG WARNING AS LATEST HRRR
INDICATES SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-25 WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO 5%. ALSO WILL INCLUDE ZNS 214
AND 216 AS WELL AS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE FOR
A FEW HOURS FM THE SSW THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...COULD SEE ISOLATD HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE BURN AREAS HOWEVER
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ211>218-238>251.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...SIGNIFICANT CUT BACK POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO LACK OF PRECIP ON THE
RADAR. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FORCING FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS TOWARDS 09Z-12Z
FOR MUCH OFT THE AREA...BUT ONSET IS DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH ACTIVE
LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK
STATE...SO WILL MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS ALSO WHERE MODELS DEPICT THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE NCEP 4KM
WRF-NMM HAVE THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES E-SE BRUSHING THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/TACONICS
AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AT LEAST A LINE OR TWO FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH
SBCAPE OF GENERALLY 200-500 J/KG ANALYZED...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ANY
STORMS CREATE COLD POOLS.
ON MONDAY...MLMUCAPES ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE 500-1000 J/KG AT
MOST ALTHOUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY HAVE VALUES
OVER 1500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWALTER
INDICES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AS WELL AROUND MID DAY ON MONDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FA WHERE AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALSO THE
AREA WHERE THE H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE AXIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED
BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN PIVOT FROM NEAR CAPE COD TUESDAY EVENING TOWARDS
CENTRAL MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FINALLY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND COOL CONDITIONS
IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST
OF MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER WED
NIGHT...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A ECMWF/GFS/HPC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC...WILL BRING
SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GET INTO A BRIEF WARM SECTOR...AS H850 TEMPS
SURGE TO 18 TO 20 C ON FRI /1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. THE ECMWF HAS SOME OF THE H925 TEMPS GET TO 22 TO 26 C BY
LATE FRI. THE TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE THE LATE PM OR
EVENING TIME FRAME...SO WE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THAT TIME. A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE IN PLACE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS /SBCAPES 1000-2000+
J/KG/. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO U80S IN THE
VALLEYS ON FRI...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH STILL AN ISOLD THREAT
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS OVER SE CANADA...AND THE
NORTHEAST...AS NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PCPN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE TRACKING AROUND AND NEAR KGFL...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH BEHIND THE
BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS...SO ANY RAIN AFTER 10Z WOULD HAVE TO COME
FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOULD HAPPEN. OTHER STRONGER SHOWER AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER...AND COULD AFFECT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 09Z DEPENDING
ON HOW IT EVOLVES...THEN GET TO THE KPSF AREA PERHAPS AROUND 10Z.
AGAIN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING
AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN AFTER SUNRISE...BY MID MORNING.
SO...SUGGESTING TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-14Z DEPENDING ON WHICH TAF SITE...THEN PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z-14Z. BY LATE AFTERNOON 22Z-23Z THE
PREDOMINANT RAIN SHOULD BE DONE...BUT KEEPING VCSH UNTIL ABOUT
03Z-05Z...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN
COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON HOW AND WHERE THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW
FORMS...WHICH WOULD BE ADDRESSED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BELOW 5 KT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 11 KT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
MON NT...VFR/MVFR...SCT -SHRA.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR....SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLATED MAINLY PM -TSRA.
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR/MVFR...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 50 TO 80 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RECOVER TO 75 TO
100 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY...NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH AND A THIRD OF RAIN TO THE FA THROUGH
TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY HYDRO ISSUES
WITH JUST SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
458 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR
GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S.
DEBBY WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MAINLY WEST OF FMY BUT AS
THIS MOVES INLAND, THE THREAT WILL INCLUDE GLADES COUNTY. IR
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS BAND BUILDING AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND SO THE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
&&
.MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS
AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR
46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E
UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT.
TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT
OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO
FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI
MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY
HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL
BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE
A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST
OF THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE
BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85
ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND
WEST AREAS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL
CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE
EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY
AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR
LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROUGH.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH
MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY
MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER
RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE
POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS
UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE
LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW
SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE
FORCING MECHANISM.
FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST
TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS
MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL
BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE
BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH.
TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO
NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
147 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
JPB
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS OUT THERE...AND STILL A BREATH OF A NORTH
WIND (A BIT MORE BRISK IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES). TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN LOW LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TO THE
UPPER 50S IN WIND. LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO DISPLAY THIS FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE...AS THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME WIND IN THOSE
EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS INCREASED LOWS THERE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN SKC
AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING.
SURFACE DWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...
WHICH CERTAINLY LENDS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
SAGINAW BAY BEFORE FROPA SHIFTED ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
ONLY SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN...AND WILL QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS JUST AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES...
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS
FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW
FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN
THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS.
AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH
PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN
OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT
FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW.
NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT
TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ-
GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A
FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE
PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE LOCALLY.
TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN
U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU
FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS.
THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE
BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/.
MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL
TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND
71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE
ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
/68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD.
TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO
NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE
MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS.
PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND
EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL
THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH
COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE
AIRMASS TRANSITIONS.
CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE.
DETAILS:
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT
HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER
SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE
AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA
LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND
THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT
ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF
AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK
OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/
SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID
80S/.
FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S
BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT
DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S
WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL
THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS.
GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL
THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. N/NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT
WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON.
TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25
KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER.
MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON
LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...JPB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JA
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
258 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHOWERS HAVE WANED THIS MORNING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BUT A HUMID AIR MASS STILL EXIST AT
THE SURFACE WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A MID LEVEL JET IS SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING
2000 TO 2500 JOULE PER KILOGRAM BY 21 UTC. WITH THE INSTABILITY...
LIFT AND MOISTURE...WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BECOME ACTIVE AFTER
18 UTC. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15000 AND
16000 FEET. THEREFORE THE BIGGEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE WINDS WITH HAIL BEING LESS OF A THREAT. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS MAINLY NORTH OF A FLORENCE TO SOUTHPORT LINE BUT WE CAN
NOT COUNT OUT STRONG STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60
INLAND AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS HALTING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ALONG THE COAST AS IT
RUNS INTO A QUASI TROPICAL WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH DEBBY APPEARS TO BE
BORNE OF SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODEL. EVEN SO IF THE
TRACK OF DEBBY IS SHIFTED TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS IT MAY STILL HAVE
A ROLE LOCALLY AS IT HOLDS UP THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND PREVENTS
THE VIGOR OF COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WE WERE ANTICIPATING WHEN DEBBY
WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A WESTBOUND SYSTEM. EVEN SO...THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BOTH WILL BE
MODULATED BY DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BARRING ANY COMPLICATIONS FROM DEBBY (I.E.
APPROACHING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WIND OR EVEN RAIN) THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF FAIRLY QUIETLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RH WILL INITIALLY BE
RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE.
LARGE FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE NATION FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. FIGURING OUT MOISTURE RETURN IS
A BIT MORE TRICKY AS IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GRADUAL. PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAY ACT TO SHUNT MUCH OF THE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEEP IT OFFSHORE. NATURALLY THIS DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR
GETTING RAINFALL CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
AMPLITUDE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND BOLSTERING THE SUMMER HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT
DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN
MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION
IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT
LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET MAINLY FROM A
SOUTHEAST SWELL EVERY 9 SECONDS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND INCREASE...THE LOCAL SHALLOW WAVE
MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AREAS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
S OF 3 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE RIFE
WITH UNCERTAINTY COMPLIMENTS OF DEBBY IT WILL STILL BE A VERY
UNSETTLED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH RIGHT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MANAGES TO TRAVEL IS UNCERTAIN
AND HINGES UPON NOT ONLY THE ACTUAL ENVELOPE OF CIRCULATION AROUND
THE STORM BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE TROUGH/TROPICAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING
AWAY FROM THE STORM TO THE ENE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADV CARRIES
OVER FROM THE NEAR TERM BUT ONLY FOR NRN WATERS ALONG FRYING PAN
SHOALS WHERE 6 FT SEAS CONTINUE. NE OR EVEN E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONCE AGAIN DEBBY COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
NOT ONLY DIRECTION BUT ALSO SPEED AND AS A RESULT...WAVES HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EVENTUAL PATH OF DEBBY IS STILL SO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THAT THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST OF WIND
AND WAVES IS ABOUT AS SCABROUS AS IT GETS. WILL MAKE FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 400 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
THAN THE FARCICAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS MELLOWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MIDDLE EVENING. THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT HAS TRAVELED ENTIRELY
NW OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF
TODAY BEGINNING EARLY...CONVECTION EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
REMAINED LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE
PRODUCING FRESH AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION SW OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY
BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS THE PULSE CONVECTION PLAYS
OUT.
GIVEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION AND CIRRO-STRATUS FROM DEBBY
THINK OUR MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND OPTED FOR THE MILDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE INTO EARLY MONDAY...LOW/MIDDLE 70S AND MUGGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER MON ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST...EXTENDING 90+ HIGHS ALMOST TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THERE WILL BE NO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH WILL
HINDER DEEP CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. THE MAIN
PRECIP EVENT WILL BE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES MON
EVENING...ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ZERO IT IS
RATHER LOW. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LESS OF A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND OR SMALL HAIL.
LATE MON NIGHT COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF TUE.
850 TEMPS DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES C FROM MON TO TUE AND DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
AN INCH TUE AND COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TUE...LOW
TO MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALLOW FOR
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP BELOW TO WELL
BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS USED
IGNORING THE GFS SOLUTION FOR DEBBY...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COULD END UP HIGHER TUE
AND TEMPERATURES TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
AS COOL AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY FOR SUMMERTIME IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR LATE JUNE AS WELL. AS THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVES
IN ON THURSDAY SOME VERY GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN MAY GET UNDERWAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH SITS WELL REMOVED EAST OF THE U.S. IN THE
ATLANTIC. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THESE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE FOR A GRADUAL ONSET OF SOME TRUE SUMMER-LIKE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR TOP 100
DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE
OCEAN. TOUGH TO SAY IF AND WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN. MODELS HINT
THAT COULD BE IN ASSOC WITH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGING ALOFT SAT
INTO SUN. MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK IN DOING SO AND POPS WILL BE
CAPPED AT 20 AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT
AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER DECK OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT DOWN TO
IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN MOVING
TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OFF
THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN UNTIL
AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR
FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT LOCATION WILL
BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...S-SSE WINDS 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FEET EVERY 8-9
SECONDS CURRENTLY IN THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE A GREAT
DEAL INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY AS WINDS OFF NORTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA
INCREASE AS DEBBY PUSHES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AREA. THUS SEAS UP
TO 3 FEET DAYBREAK MONDAY POSSIBLE...FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS APPROACHING THE SC COASTAL
WATERS EARLY MONDAY...REPRESENTING THE OUTER RAIN SHIELD OF DEBBY.
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE WATERS...MORE FAVORED
OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE COLUMN BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MON AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE WIND
FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FOR TS DEBBY
KEEPS THE STORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS IS THE CASE LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM KY/OH
VALLEY. WINDS WOULD BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE AND 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
GFS SOLUTION MOVES DEBBY ACROSS FL AND THEN TURNS THE STORM
NORTHEAST...PASSING IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT DEEPENS. IF
THAT HAPPENS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH HIGHER
SEAS WOULD BE LIKELY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AT
LEAST A SCA TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE 12 TO 18
HOUR PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MON AND MON NIGHT MAY
PUSH SEAS TO 6 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE...REQUIRING A SCA HEADLINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WASHES OUT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH GRADUALLY FORMS. WIND MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO WSW ON
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WIND SPED WILL
TEND TO BUILD OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY
GETTING INTO THE 10 TO 15 OR EVEN 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THOUGH AS THIS WILL BE COAST-PARALLEL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BUILDING SEAS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF 20 NM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING ONTO LAKE ERIE
AND WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND 1045 PM.
ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
COVER WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH
ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK IF THE NOT
SOONER. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW
LOW WILL THE CLOUDS BE. IT IS TYPICAL AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO GET SOME STRATUS ESPECIALLY ONE WITH A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
COMPONENT. THE NAM MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE MAINLY FROM MFD EAST AND
STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL FORECAST SOME STRATUS AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT IT TO A VFR CEILING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT AROUND 4
THOUSAND FEET. A NORTHEAST WIND MAY HELP GET SOME CLOUDS OVER INTO
THAT AREA. TONIGHT THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE
NEAR 13C SO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A CEILING AT CLE...ERI AND YNG.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...TK/REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH 424 CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY
WITH PALM BEACH, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES ADDED TO THE WATCH.
THIS INCLUDES THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE COLLIER
COUNTY AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...(ISSUED 807 AM EDT) TORNADO WATCH 424 CONTINUES
UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY
APPROACHING SW FLA COAST MAINLY AND INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF OF
COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED
WARMING TOPS EARLIER HAVE NOW BEGUN TO COOL AGAIN. ALL OF THIS
OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS S FLA
WITH THE EMPHASIS OF THE WEATHER IN THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEE REGION AND W.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY.
AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY APPROACHING SW FLA COAST MAINLY AND
INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.
IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED WARMING TOPS EARLIER HAVE NOW BEGUN TO
COOL AGAIN. ALL OF THIS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY
AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS S FLA WITH THE EMPHASIS OF THE WEATHER IN THE NW 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEE REGION AND W.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.AVIATION...
EXPECT THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND AS PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE STATE EAST OF TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY. PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND THE AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A NARROW LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST TO THE LAKE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER SITE APF LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
REACHING THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SITE APF. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR
GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S.
DEBBY WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MAINLY WEST OF FMY BUT AS
THIS MOVES INLAND, THE THREAT WILL INCLUDE GLADES COUNTY. IR
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS BAND BUILDING AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND SO THE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.
MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND
COOLER START TO THE WEEK. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND BECOMING
QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF EARLY SHOWERS AND TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX
ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND COOL SUMMER DAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 70S IN EASTERN
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL
FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SUBSIDES.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
628 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL TODAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
THEN BECOME QUITE WARM BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT RADAR DATA PLUS HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE LAST OF THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXITED PAST THE MOUNTAINS BY 7
AM, AND THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED ANA-COLD-FRONTAL SHOWERS BY 9 AM.
THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE WITH DRIER INTRUSION OF
POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS. NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW DEEPENING VERTICAL
MIX WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER CAN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 8 AM
READINGS, PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS, WHICH MEANS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL,
AND QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL
FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANY REMAINING CEILING RESTRICTIONS NEAR KFKL AND KDUJ TO
VANISH BY 13Z DUE TO POST FRONTAL DRYING. VFR WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS
AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR
46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E
UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT.
TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT
OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO
FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI
MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY
HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL
BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE
A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST
OF THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE
BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85
ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND
WEST AREAS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL
CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE
EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY
AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR
LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROUGH.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH
MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY
MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER
RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE
POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS
UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE
LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW
SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE
FORCING MECHANISM.
FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST
TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS
MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL
BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE
BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH.
TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO
NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
WINDS WL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH LK
BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING. A HUMID AIR MASS STILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT A MID LEVEL JET IS SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING 2000 TO 2500 JOULE PER
KILOGRAM BY 21 UTC. WITH THE INSTABILITY... LIFT AND MOISTURE...WE
ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BECOME ACTIVE AFTER 18 UTC. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15000 AND 16000 FEET. THEREFORE
THE BIGGEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WINDS WITH
HAIL BEING LESS OF A THREAT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS MAINLY NORTH
OF A FLORENCE TO SOUTHPORT LINE BUT WE CAN NOT COUNT OUT STRONG
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60
INLAND AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS HALTING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ALONG THE COAST AS IT
RUNS INTO A QUASI TROPICAL WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH DEBBY APPEARS TO BE
BORNE OF SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODEL. EVEN SO IF THE
TRACK OF DEBBY IS SHIFTED TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS IT MAY STILL HAVE
A ROLE LOCALLY AS IT HOLDS UP THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND PREVENTS
THE VIGOR OF COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WE WERE ANTICIPATING WHEN DEBBY
WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A WESTBOUND SYSTEM. EVEN SO...THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BOTH WILL BE
MODULATED BY DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BARRING ANY COMPLICATIONS FROM DEBBY (I.E.
APPROACHING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WIND OR EVEN RAIN) THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF FAIRLY QUIETLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RH WILL INITIALLY BE
RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE.
LARGE FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE NATION FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. FIGURING OUT MOISTURE RETURN IS
A BIT MORE TRICKY AS IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GRADUAL. PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAY ACT TO SHUNT MUCH OF THE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEEP IT OFFSHORE. NATURALLY THIS DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR
GETTING RAINFALL CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
AMPLITUDE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND BOLSTERING THE SUMMER HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT
DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN
MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION
IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT
LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 AM MONDAY...SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND
INCREASE...THE LOCAL SHALLOW WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AREAS. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 PM
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
S OF 3 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE RIFE
WITH UNCERTAINTY COMPLIMENTS OF DEBBY IT WILL STILL BE A VERY
UNSETTLED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH RIGHT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MANAGES TO TRAVEL IS UNCERTAIN
AND HINGES UPON NOT ONLY THE ACTUAL ENVELOPE OF CIRCULATION AROUND
THE STORM BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE TROUGH/TROPICAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING
AWAY FROM THE STORM TO THE ENE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADV CARRIES
OVER FROM THE NEAR TERM BUT ONLY FOR NRN WATERS ALONG FRYING PAN
SHOALS WHERE 6 FT SEAS CONTINUE. NE OR EVEN E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONCE AGAIN DEBBY COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
NOT ONLY DIRECTION BUT ALSO SPEED AND AS A RESULT...WAVES HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EVENTUAL PATH OF DEBBY IS STILL SO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THAT THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST OF WIND
AND WAVES IS ABOUT AS SCABROUS AS IT GETS. WILL MAKE FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 400 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
THAN THE FARCICAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1058 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT DAY ON THE WAY. AT 1000 AM IT WAS 91
DEGREES...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
OF LOWER 100S APPEARS ON TRACK. AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA...WE MAY APPROACH THE ALL TIME HIGH OF 105 DEGREES AT
DENVER. ONLY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ON. DID
EXTEND LOW POPS TO THE FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY AREAS FOR THIS
EVENING. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THIS AREA THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST.
THE HOT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THUS WILL KEEP ALL
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE AT SEEING
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME NORMAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAINAGE DIRECTION BY 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND FM ERN CO INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH MAINLY SLY MID LVL FLOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY
KEEP HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY MORE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT
CATEGORY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OVER NERN CO IT LOOKS
DRY WITH VERY HOT TEMPS AS READINGS WILL BE ABV 100 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME READINGS EXCEED
105 DEGREES OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 100
TODAY SO THAT SHOULD BE BKN. IF LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SSW
ALONG THE FNT RANGE AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALL
TIME HIGH OF 105 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED.
FOR TONIGHT MOST HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 03Z OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD
TSTMS ALONG THE WY-CO BORDER IN ZN 38 EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL HOLD THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AND 850 MB ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
ON THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...HIGHS MAY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 90S. THE ONLY CHANGES
IN MODELS COMPARED TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN
MID-LEVEL...EARLY MONSOONAL...MOISTURE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL A PLUME OF DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND
ABNORMALLY WARM. WHEREAS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE
FAVORING TRACKS THAT KEEP DEBBY WELL EAST OF HERE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ROTATE OUT OF MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS. THIS WILL BEST BE ANALYZED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION LOOKS TO REMAIN DIRE
UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKES IT AROUND THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STARTS ARE GOING TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH AFTERNOON/S ROUND OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE WLY AS A WK SFC LOW WAS
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LOW EVENTUALLY
REDEVELOPING IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING MORE
SSW BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. BY 00Z THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE
ACROSS. AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW. AT THIS
TIME NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE HAVE DECIDED TO
PLACE ALL OF THE FRONT RANGE IN A RED FLAG WARNING AS LATEST HRRR
INDICATES SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-25 WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO 5%. ALSO WILL INCLUDE ZNS 214
AND 216 AS WELL AS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE FOR
A FEW HOURS FM THE SSW THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...COULD SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE BURN AREAS HOWEVER
AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218-
238>251.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM
DEBBY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTER PORTION OF MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER OF DEBBY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CSG TO VDI. THIS HAS
RESULTED ON BEST PRESSURE AND WIND GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TO THE NORTH...STILL SEEING
STRONGER NORTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH
AND HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS
PRECIP...AREA OF MOISTURE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTER BANDS
FROM DEBBY HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BUT SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A
LACK OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY.
LATEST RAP MIXED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE EVEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. BETTER VALUES TO THE NORTH BUT DRY
AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. STILL
HAVE CAPES OF 2500 J/KG SO NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON AREA YET AND
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTH.
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIRECTION WITH
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THE MOST
LIKELY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE WITH
THE GFS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. EFFECTS
LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION ON THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE STORM. COULD SEE SOME OUTER BANDS ENTER THE
SOUTHERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MID WEEK.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE NHC STILL KEEPING DEBBY IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF THE STORM DECIDES TO TAKE A FASTER
TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ON
SHORE THURSDAY AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ON THE EASTERN
SIDE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND END POPS
RELATED TO DEBBY BY THURSDAY.
BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WOULD PROVIDE
HOT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH
DEBBY AND DOESNT START BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 90S BUT IF DEBBY
MOVES OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO LIMIT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL PROVIDE LOW END GUSTS FOR ATL AND
HIGH GUSTS AT MCN AND CSG THROUGH TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE AND MOSTLY
VFR FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND FRONT ALLOWS WINDS OVER NORTH GEORGIA
TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. MEANWHILE...FLOW AROUND DEBBY WILL
PROMOTE MORE EASTERLY FOR THE SOUTH. TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE NEAR
ATL WHERE HAVE FAVORED A NE FLOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION TUESDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 89 60 92 / 20 10 10 10
ATLANTA 70 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 85 56 86 / 10 10 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 65 90 58 91 / 10 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 73 93 69 92 / 20 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 67 87 62 88 / 20 10 5 10
MACON 73 93 64 92 / 30 20 10 20
ROME 66 92 58 92 / 10 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 90 59 88 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 74 89 70 90 / 70 50 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN ON THE HEAT.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. FLAT RIDGE
FRIDAY BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE.
850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE
100-115 DEGREE RANGE (COOLEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND HOTTEST
IN THE HILL CITY AREA). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE SOUTHERLY WIND (NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WARMING) MAY
NEGATE FULL 850MB MIXING THUS WENT AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE HILL CITY
AREA...MID 90S TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
DID MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA.
700MB TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY BE TOO HOT FOR ANYTHING TO POP OR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES
5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK
HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITERIA.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5
PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 5 PERCENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
WEDNESDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940
HILL CITY....107 IN 1940
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963
YUMA.........104
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........106
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012)
GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940)
HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936)
MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932)
BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952)
YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS)
TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012)
COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN
OUT A POTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOTS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLATTENS
OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST PLACING THE REGION IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES
5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK
HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITERIA.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5
PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 5 PERCENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MONDAY...
GOODLAND.....104 IN 1990...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
HILL CITY....108 IN 1911...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 114 (SET SUNDAY)
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 112 (1933)
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 107 (1990)
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......106
COLBY........110
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
GOODLAND.....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111
HILL CITY....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 117
MCCOOK.......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 114
BURLINGTON...ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 107
YUMA.........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109
TRIBUNE......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
COLBY........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 (SET SUNDAY)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR
PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP
HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST
SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE.
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE
SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN
OUT A POTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOTS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLATTENS
OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST PLACING THE REGION IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES
5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK
HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING
ABOVE CRITERIA.
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5
PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 5 PERCENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012
MONDAY...
GOODLAND.....104 IN 1990...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
HILL CITY....108 IN 1911...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 114 (SET SUNDAY)
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 112 (1933)
BURLINGTON...104 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 107 (1990)
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......106
COLBY........110
TUESDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....110 IN 1980
MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998
BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........108
GOODLAND.....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111
HILL CITY....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 117
MCCOOK.......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 114
BURLINGTON...ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 107
YUMA.........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109
TRIBUNE......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY)
COLBY........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 (SET SUNDAY)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 1800L: AREA OF RAIN W/ SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION ON THE
FRONT SIDE LIFTING NNE ACROSS OUR WRN AND SWRN AREAS ATTM...
ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT LATEST TRENDS - REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS FINE.
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS
HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN
MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY
RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM
WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND
SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER
COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW
COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING
AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM IN A LONG
TRAJECTORY FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN EAST AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGING ON HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
KATAHDIN REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL. THE WARM OCCLUSION AND ASSOCIATED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER MAINE BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL...AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM RECENT STORMS
COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
EXISTING FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS E XPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN EMERGES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
LIFT HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ZONES
FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE LOW 80S.. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AVOIDING INSTABILITY
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: IFR WILL THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR ALL TERMINALS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND BHB TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...IF NOT VFR...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE TEMPO IFR. IFR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES
COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW.
SHORT TERM: SCA MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WAVE HTS WILL STAY NEAR 4 FT IN A SE SWELL MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW
RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY
DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO
THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN
GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-
015-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
335 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS
HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN
MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY
RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM
WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND
SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER
COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW
COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING
AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES
COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW.
SHORT TERM:
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW
RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY
DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO
THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN
GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-
015-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND
BECOMING QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX
ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CUMULUS AND WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES WILL COOL TO NEAR 40
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH
TEMPS MODERATING. TUESDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE THERMAL
PROFILE ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL MODELS ARE DRY, HOWEVER THE ECMWF
INDICATES STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO
20-21C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS IS 17-19C. FORECAST IS
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 10 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL BUILD A FLAT RIDGE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
NORTHEAST UPPER LOW AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. KEPT FORECAST
HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN HPC GUIDANCE...BUT A TAD ABOVE GFS
NUMBERS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY...TAPERING TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
15Z TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER REGION WEST OF A NEW ENGLAND LOW. GUSTS TO 25 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND
WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND
COOLER START TO THE WEEK. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND BECOMING
QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN TEMP AND SKY.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX
ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND COOL SUMMER DAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
STEADY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S IN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL
FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SUBSIDES.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM RESULTING
IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING NW WINDS INTO THE ERN
CWA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING HAS DROPPED INLAND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWAT VALUES INTO THE 0.60 INCH TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD STILL ALLOW INLAND MIN READINGS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 12C-14C RANGE...GUIDANCE MAX INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOKED REASONABLE. MIXING SHOULD PUSH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 35
PERCENT. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING
THAT TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS AND
LATEST ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP ON A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE A POCKET
OF H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND BEST FORCING FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING TO THE NORTH WOULD TEND TO A
DRIER FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAIN CORE OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AOA 20C FOR THE WEST AND 17C FOR THE EAST
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD MIX TO ABOUT H8 DURING THE DAY...SO
TEMPS THERE ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF SFC TEMP POTENTIAL. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW STATES WILL TRY TO
ERODE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL VARIABILITY IS STILL A LITTLE HIGH ON THE TIMING OF RIDGE
DEAMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL WAA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEREBY KEEPING THE RIDGE A LITTLE
SHARPER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS AS WELL. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE IN THESE PATTERNS...THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN CONTROL A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE PREDICTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
BELOW 65 ACROSS THE WEST. FARTHER EAST...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THIS PASSAGE THAN THE GFS. COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE
IDEA...WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF APPROACH FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY HAS BECOME A QUESTION WITH TROPICAL STORM
DEBBIE SPINNING IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBBIE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THERE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE GULF AND PREVENT NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE SEEN WITH
THIS FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-CENTRAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAP FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
COOLER AIR LAGS THE FRONT SOMEWHAT...SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER SEVERAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. COOLEST AREAS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. THOUGH
WITH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS NOW IN THE 60S...COOLING EFFECT IS
DIMINISHING. RH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UNDER 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE NOT AN ISSUE ATTM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PATTERN BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL AFTER THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND WILL BRING A COUPLE
VERY WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW AS MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH. ONE OF THE
WEAK WAVES QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. ONCE AGAIN...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT STALLS FROM IA TO
IN AND ROBS THE AREA OF ANY CHANCE OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE TRANQUIL
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
WINDS WL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH LK
BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
146 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS
AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR
46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E
UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT.
TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT
OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO
FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL
TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI
MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX
ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z
TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY
HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL
BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE
A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST
OF THE NGT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR
LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE
BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85
ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND
WEST AREAS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL
CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE
EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY
AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR
LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROUGH.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH
MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY
MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER
RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE
POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS
UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE
LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW
SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE
FORCING MECHANISM.
FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST
TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS
MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL
BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE
BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH.
TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO
NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL
LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
LIMITED FORCING...WHICH IS MAINLY CONFINED TO SC COUNTIES...AND
MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE...BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK CAP AROUND 16K
FT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE IT. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP WILL STRUGGLE IN THE DRY AIR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK LIFT.
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE BROKEN LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. DESPITE COLD FRONT BEING UNUSUALLY STRONG
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THE UPWARD MOTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL
THAT VIGOROUS. THE 5H TROF AXIS IS OFF THE COAST BY THE TIME THE
FRONT REACHES THE AREA...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND THERE
ARE NO OTHER FEATURES ALOFT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LIFT. THINK THE LINE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTAIN SOME DEEPER CONVECTION BUT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST BUT DO NOT THINK A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS
ON THE CARDS FOR TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF FRONT/LINE WILL LIMIT TOTAL
QPF...NEGATING FLOODING CONCERNS. COLD FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH COLD ADVECTION
BEGINNING AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON LOWS OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. IF ANY LOCATIONS ARE TO FEEL THE
FIRST IMPACTS OF THE IMPENDING COLD AIR IT WOULD BE NORTHWEST
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO MID 60S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ONTO SMALL POP FOR THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES TUESDAY WILL BE A
COOLER AND DRIER DAY OVERALL. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND
MULTIPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN THE AREA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
50S...WHILE COASTAL AREAS DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. A WARM-UP IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CLIMO AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY IMPLANTED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. NO POPS
REQUIRED AFTER TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON. OVERALL
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS
THAN AN INCH ON THURS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS DEEPER RETURN FLOW
SETS UP LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH VALUES REACHING BACK AROUND 1.5
INCHES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE MID 50S ON WED UP CLOSER TO 70 BY
THE WEEKEND. A RAPID WARM UP WILL OCCUR AS H5 HEIGHTS REACH UP NEAR
592 DEM BY FRI EVENING. 850 TEMPS SHOW AN INCREASE FROM AROUND 12C
EARLY WED MORNING UP CLOSE TO 25 C BY FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ON FRI AND REMAINING UP AROUND 90 FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND VERY WARM
TEMPS COULD BRING APPARENT TEMPS UP CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD WITH BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEBBY. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REMAIN ON AN E-NE TRACK...IT MAY
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY TRACK A BIT CLOSER
TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES A MOVE. LATEST GFS
SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST NEXT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND SOME PCP POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL KEEP PCP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUN
INTO MON TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCE FROM DEBBY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR LBT AND WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN DIURNALLY BY 01Z. THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING A
FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY 03-4Z. THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT LBT. THIS
LINE WILL LIKELY WANE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD...BUT IT COULD HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH THE AFFECT THE MYRTLES BY 06-07Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT
BRIEFLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SHIFTING AGAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUSTY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. TUESDAY...CONTINUED
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT GRADUALLY
PLOWS SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPEEDS CURRENTLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT...WITH A SOLID 20
KT POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 7 FT
OVERNIGHT...A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM THE SOUTH.
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. LOOKS AS THOUGH COLD ADVECTION
WILL ARRIVE BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...LIMITING GUSTINESS.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT...BUT WITH OFFSHORE COMPONENT STARTING TO KNOCK
BACK THE SEAS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT
CONTINUING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SEAS WILL BE
HIGHEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH DEBBY.
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS NOW AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL E-NE TRACK...THE
LATEST MODELS HOLDS DEBBY OVER THE GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
FINALLY MAKING A MOVE. THE GFS SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH NEXT SUN INTO MON WHILE THE ECWMF REMAINS SLOWER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INITIALLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN ON THURS WITH BERMUDA HIGH TAKING OVER FRI THROUGH SAT.
THEREFORE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS FRI THROUGH SAT.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 SEAS ON
THURS TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI THROUGH SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DEBBY
MOVES UP THE COAST MAY SEE AN INCREASING SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SERVE TO STRENGTHEN
THE CAP AND MAINTAIN A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ABOVE THE CAP IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
(NEAR DRY ADIABATIC) LAPSE RATES. THE 700MB-300MB LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY
MISSING ELEMENT IS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH ELEVATED ASCENT TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY RESULT
GENERATING A HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS OCCURRENCE
IS SMALL...BUT NOT ZERO. SINCE THIS POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE
IGNORED...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST FOR THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVER WEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR
WITH NEAR RECORD VALUES EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE TABLE BELOW.
SITE FORECAST RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH
WILLISTON 97 100 1931
DICKINSON 99 98 1961
BISMARCK 95 96 1961
MINOT 90 99 1910
JAMESTOWN 88 106 1931
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
AFFECTED AREAS. FURTHERMORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT
KEEPING THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES AROUND LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FROPA TIMING...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN H5 LOW WILL TOP THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT..BUT IT SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING
OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CARRY SMALL POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC 25.12Z
ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS THOSE DAYS SHOULD NOT BE WASH OUTS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN MVFR
CEILING TO KDIK...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS REMAINING AT THE OTHER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. RAP PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO KDIK IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR NDZ009-010-017>021-031>035-040>046.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-043.
&&
$$
TM...SHORT TERM
CK...LONG TERM/AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY
IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT AS
WARM AS SUNDAY CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.
GOOD CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER NE TN AND SW VA BUT NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED YET. WEAK COLD FRONT LIES OVER KY AND
WV WITH PRE FRONTAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
VA. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 3Z AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA AND THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF TN INCLUDING SW VA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE A COOLER NIGHT AS AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SW VA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 80S
ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS NEAR CHA MAY STILL BE CLOSE TO 90. HOWEVER DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH WILL HELP WITH
THE BREAK IN THE HEAT. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV LOWS TONIGHT AND THE
WARMER MAV HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SLOWLY
DRIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL CREATE
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM DEBBY
REMAINING FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO CREATE MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY
TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 88 59 90 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 62 84 56 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 84 56 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 80 53 86 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD/DMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1055 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a threat of thunderstorms are forecast for
Monday. Tuesday temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below
average as a low pressure system moves through the region.
Widespread rain and breezy winds are expected. A warming and
drying trend is likely Wednesday and Thursday. The weekend could
bring more showers to the mountains and below average temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest in the series of short waves is moving through the area
this morning bringing rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly north
of highway 2. This activity will move northward out of the area
with the short wave later this morning. Then more showers are
expected to develop over the Cascades and northern mountains later
this afternoon. Surface based instability is minimal in these
areas so a few thunderstorms are possible but not expected to be
severe. Farther to the east in the Panhandle the instability will
be greater. SPC has this area in a Slight Risk today and given the
0-6 km shear this looks plausible. However the HRRR model runs
this morning have been consistent in showing these storms
developing east of the MT/ID border.
Major weather system still on tap to move through the area on
Tuesday. More on this with the afternoon discussion. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern
mountains this morning will gradually move northward into southern
BC by 21Z. More showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the Cascades and northern mountains this afternoon.
This activity should not affect the TAF locations. A strong
Pacific storm system will move into the area tonight bringing
widespread rain and IFR/MVFR conditions Tuesday morning. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 79 54 56 43 73 50 / 20 30 90 50 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 79 54 56 44 71 47 / 20 20 100 60 10 0
Pullman 77 51 58 41 72 45 / 10 40 80 40 0 0
Lewiston 84 59 67 50 80 56 / 0 40 80 30 0 0
Colville 81 53 58 44 74 49 / 30 20 90 80 10 0
Sandpoint 77 52 54 42 69 44 / 30 20 100 90 20 0
Kellogg 79 52 55 43 71 49 / 20 40 100 70 10 10
Moses Lake 83 56 66 48 78 53 / 10 50 70 10 0 0
Wenatchee 80 56 65 51 77 56 / 10 60 70 20 0 0
Omak 80 54 62 46 76 52 / 20 30 70 40 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$