Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/25/12


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
918 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .UPDATE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WORKING NORTHWARD THROUGH LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES. THERE WAS SOME ACCUMULATING RAIN WITH THESE STORMS IN THE FORT COLLINS AND WELLINGTON AREAS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH PARK FIRE AREA WILL MOST LIKELY SEE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AS THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WERE HOLDING JUST A BIT TOO FAR EAST. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE REMOVING POPS IN ALL OTHER AREAS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. && .AVIATION...VARIABLE WINDS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 06Z. WINDS SHOULD TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR EAST KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN PLACE AT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER...TODAYS RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS CONVECTION AND STRONGEST GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE OVER IN MOST AREAS BY THEN. RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN ON MONDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 LOOKS GOOD WHERE MORE HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012/ SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH A HIGH OF 101 AT KDEN AS OF 2 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLORADO AND WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PARK COUNTY TO DENVER NORTHEAST TO STERLING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS FOR MONDAY. RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 100 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY BREAK IT AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A HIGH IN THE LOW 100S LIKELY. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY. WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. FIRE WEATHER...RADAR SHOWING WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND DO NOT THINK ANY RAINFALL HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET. HAVE HAD 10-15 CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES SO FAR AND WOULD EXPECT MORE AS THE DAY PROGRESS...THUS WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. EXPECT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ACROSS THE EASTERN...HOT..VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN PLAINS. LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MDLS DO ENTRAIN SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WISE...PERSISTENCE THE RULE WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES SO SHUD TIE OR BREAK OUR STREAK IN DENVER OF 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR OVER 100 DEGREES. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...SO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY. AS A RESULT...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST...SO WL CARRY THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ONTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. INTERATIVE SOUNDINGS DO NOT GENERATE ANY CAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVNG...BUT IT CLIMBS TO AROUND 600-700 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 03Z MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MAY BE NECESSARY ON TUESDAY...WITH A THE PRESENCE OF A BIT MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAY HIT THE DENVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE DIRECTION TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KAPA AND KDEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AT MOST IS EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ211>213- 215-217-218-241-244>251. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM....COOPER AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL. WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS AND SOME 12 NAM DATA. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD POOL HAS PRODUCED +TSRA/-SHRA OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KGFL HAS HAD THUNDERSTORM AROUND 17Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 7KT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BT MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTSON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG. SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS TSRA. TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA. THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL. WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS AND SOME 12 NAM DATA. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH 21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK... SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG. SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA. TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA/SND SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/... AS OF 1025 AM...RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING PLACE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER JUST ABOUT EVERY PEAK IN THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD POOL WITH H500 TEMPS ANALYZED BY RUC AT -19C MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AREA. COLDEST UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALY FORECAST AREA AND SO BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS NORTH. HOWEVER...ALBANY 12Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWED ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATER TODAY AROUND MAX HEATING THAT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER ANY PART OF THE AREA. WHILE A ROGUE SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MOST STORMS WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SOME SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THINGS LOOKS TO QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS COLD POOL MOVES EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS AND SOME 12 NAM DATA. PREVIOUS... A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS STILL SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR REGION. SOME NEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TODAY ALONG THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG THE SECONDARY SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY NOW...AND SOME OF THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE. SO...EASTERN AREAS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF CLOUD COVER MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. CLOUD SHIELD IS MAKING PROGRESS EAST. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE OF COOLING AND DRYING TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SOME 70S COOLER AREAS SUCH AS HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH 21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK... SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG. SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA. TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...SND/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF POTENT TROUGHING ARRIVING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND FINALLY BACK INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NE STATES/ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OF MOST INTEREST TO OUR FORECAST IS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SEEN CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOESN`T GET MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A PW VALUES JUST SHY OF 2.5". FOR LATE JUNE THIS NUMBER IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF VALUES. AT THE SURFACE...OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS THIS SURFACE FEATURE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 2. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES IS NOT OVERLY TIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE FORECAST DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PICTURE OF THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE/SE OF THE MS DELTA. THEREAFTER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE UNTIL LATE MONDAY BEFORE BEING NUDGED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MISSES THIS ENERGY AND BEGINS TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS DURING MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE OF LITTLE HELP WITH A SPLIT OF MEMBERS HEADING EAST AND WEST...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN LEANS TOWARD A WESTWARD DRIFT BY LATER MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...FORECAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WILL FEATURE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF GUIDANCE...AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/SREF BLEND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. TODAY...WITH THE VERY HIGH VALUES OF COLUMN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE LOW...AND DIURNAL HEATING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH. FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL FEATURE LESS COVERAGE OF GENERALLY SCT LIGHTER SHOWERS...AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE WE GET SOME HEATING THOUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH...HOWEVER WITH A PW CLOSE TO 2.5"...POCKETS OF LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. LOTS OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL LIMITED HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY TO THE 80S. WAVE MODELS SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TO AT LEAST A MODERATE LEVEL. THIS ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL TO OUR WEST IN A POSITION THAT WILL FAVOR BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF. BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND ZONES. SIMILAR TO TODAY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO FILL IN FURTHER INLAND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF BANDS ORIENT THEMSELVES TO FAVOR TRAINING OF CELLS. MONDAY...AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS NORTH AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF/SREF QPF. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...I HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY AND JUST THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY. FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING WELL TO THE WEST...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEATING. BY WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN RESULTING IN NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MORNINGS SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY...FOLLOWED BY A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE EVENINGS WILL START OFF WITH ISOLATED STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE DRY. && .AVIATION... SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PGD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND LIKELY REMAIN AT THESE ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 76 84 77 / 80 80 80 70 FMY 86 75 86 76 / 90 80 80 60 GIF 87 73 84 74 / 80 70 80 60 SRQ 87 76 86 77 / 90 80 80 70 BKV 87 73 85 73 / 80 80 80 70 SPG 86 77 85 79 / 80 80 80 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE- MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS LATER TODAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THESE FEATURES MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/WDLY SCTD STORMS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING SO WILL MENTION. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING HAVE NOW MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (OFB) HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY...THEN NORTHWARD TO EAST OF MARYSVILLE. NORTHEAST OF THIS OFB...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. WHILE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE OFB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KS. THOUGH THE HRRR AND ARW DID SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS ALONG THE NE BORDER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OFB ALONG THE NE BORDER. I INSERTED 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS BROWN...NEMAHA...JACKSON AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN CASE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE TO THE KS BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE C RANGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 102 TO 104 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ATTM...I ONLY HAVE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 103 DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...THEN HEAT INDICES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. GARGAN LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT. ...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN EXPECTED TO FORCE A HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ANY MODIFYING OR COOLING INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST WITH EAST WINDS MON INTO TUES YET HIGH HEIGHTS WILL YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH MON/TUES. WIDE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MON/TUES AND PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN COOL BIAS OF GFS BASED NUMBERS. HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDS INTO THURS AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND 100 AND PERHAPS 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA WITH AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS. && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF KTOP AND KFOE BY 19Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS TO 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 21 TO 28 KTS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. GARGAN && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT 100 DEGREES NEAR KIT CARSON COLORADO. 15Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES AND STILL MAINTAINS AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 105 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO 110-112 FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPS AND RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 105-107 DEGREES. PER COORDINATION WITH DDC AND GID FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM CDT THROUGH 8 PM CDT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102 IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID- DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM +17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS AND FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 FOR KGLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 00Z. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD THE TERMINAL. FOR KMCK SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: TODAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-015-016-029. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...007 SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...007 CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
827 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102 IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID- DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM +17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS AND FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DELIVER VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: TODAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DDT SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...FS CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ZONES AND GRIDS UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419. UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END AT 4Z. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA. H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A ROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE. MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES CAUSING THIS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: SATURDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FS SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER AVIATION...JRM CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH H85 DEWPOINTS NEAR 15C, STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. && .UPDATE... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55 MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34 CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR 100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0 P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RUTHI SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON SHORT TERM...KRUSE LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...JJOHNSON FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END AT 4Z. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA. H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A ROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE. MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES CAUSING THIS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: SATURDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JRM SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER AVIATION...JRM CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55 MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34 CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR 100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0 P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RUTHI SHORT TERM...KRUSE LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...JJOHNSON FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. JPB && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN SKC AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE DWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA... WHICH CERTAINLY LENDS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SAGINAW BAY BEFORE FROPA SHIFTED ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ONLY SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...AND WILL QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS JUST AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES... INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS. AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW. NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ- GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE LOCALLY. TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/. MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND 71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE /68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD. TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST. NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS. PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE AIRMASS TRANSITIONS. CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE. DETAILS: CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/ SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID 80S/. FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY... IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS. GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/ A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON. TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25 KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER. MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MR SYNOPSIS...JPB SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JA AVIATION...MR MARINE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...THEN A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS ONTARIO FROM NEAR YQK THEN DROPPING INTO NODAK AND FAR NW CORNER MN. ONE AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS DVLPG ACROSS ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER E-W BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NODAK. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF THE NODAK AREA ALLOWING IT TO EXPAND SE THIS EVE/TNGHT INTO CNTRL MN/WC WI AHD OF UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO/NE MN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. CDFNT DROPS INTO N MN THIS EVENING AND THEN PICKS UP SPEED LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR IA BORDER BY 12Z. NICE DRY AIRMASS PUSHES INTO AREA IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS 1025 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING INTO THE 40S MAINLY ACROSS WI CWA WITH NE DRY NE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WORK BACK INTO AREA. VERY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AOA 590 DM INTO SW MN. SHUD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WC MN. MID LEVEL TEMPS PRETTY WARM WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROF MOVING THRU BRING A BIT COOLER AIRMASS INTO AREA. COOLER WNW FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR BALANCE OF FORECAST WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WARM FRONT...BUT ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ORIGINATING OUT OF VFR CEILINGS. WI AIRPORTS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. SOME OF THE WEATHER MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE SHOWING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND THERE ARE IN FACT A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN FAR WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THE TAF SITES GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE MODELS AND ALSO SIMPLY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IF WE WERE GETTING OUR HAD MUCH MORE RAIN . KMSP...NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS WITH CIGS/VIS HOLDING NEAR 10000FT. ALREADY SEEING A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. OUTLOOK... .SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
301 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK... AS A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE CONTINENT. PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING TO OUR WEST SLIDES EAST. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE DEPRESSED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. OVERALL... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS THROUGH MIDWEEK... THEN DIFFER A BIT IN THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE-SQUASHING SHORTWAVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... AND WILL THEN STICK CLOSER TO THE GOING FORECAST AND LATEST ECMWF FOR THE LATER PERIODS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... AND GIVEN THE STOUTNESS OF THE UPPER RIDGE PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE PLAINS... WHERE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS INTERACTING WITH GOOD MUCAPE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE. AN ARM OF SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY LINES UP WELL WITH LOWER CPD VALUES AND ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE... AND ALSO HAS 250-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH WHICH TO WORK BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. THINGS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY... WHILE REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM MCS SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER... DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA... SINCE THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND BETTER MOISTURE NEVER REALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN TO OUR NORTH IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ALTHOUGH THE MAIN KICKER FOR TONIGHT/S SECONDARY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE IS THE MORE ROBUST WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH... IT WILL STILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT/TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... AND DRIVE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. KEPT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THOUGH MOST OF TONIGHT GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRYING TO WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY... THEN THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FOCUS OF THE TWO FEATURES. BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AND REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL THEN SURGE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER OUR AREA. LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR NOW... WHEN SOME ARE INTRODUCED OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED EARLIER COINCIDENT WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE GUIDANCE IS TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN RESPONSE TO THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA... BUT SHOULD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVE WITH THE WARMER AIR... WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME PCPN GET WRUNG OUT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE WARMEST OF AIR ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS... WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER EVOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW. IN ADDITION... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUALLY WORK TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE... WHICH WILL SLOW THE OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THINGS... MUCH LIKE WE SAW AT THE START OF THIS PAST WEEK. THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HANDLE SUCH THINGS VERY WELL... WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN NOT ONLY SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF... BUT ALSO THE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW... INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS THAT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY THAT POINT IN TIME. ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THINGS... RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK... WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE 90 CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND THE CLOUDINESS IT COULD CREATE FOR US... AS WELL AS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES... DIDN/T GO NEARLY AS ADIABATIC MIXING MIGHT SUGGEST. AS WE GET NEARER IN TIME SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST HIGHS WILL CERTAINLY BE MADE... AND WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE UPWARD UNLESS PCPN OR SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN/EC SD HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SE...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SC MN. HOWEVER...-SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHRA NEAR RWF/AXN BETWEEN 6-12Z. CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS STC/RNH/MSP AS THE LATEST RAP HAS MORE DEVELOPMENT AFT 6Z ACROSS CENTRAL MN...EXTENDING SE TOWARD MSP. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH AT THESE PLACES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA BY 12Z. RNH/EAU...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON TSRA/SHRA UNTIL AFT 12Z. WNDS WILL BECOME SE/ESE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO GUSTS DURING THE MORNING. MSP...SHRA/TSRA IN EC SD/SW MN WILL HOLD IN THIS AREA THRU 9Z. DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AFT 9Z...SO WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE VCSH BY 9Z. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ATTM BASED ON THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...OR AT LEAST UNTIL AFT 12-15Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE SE TOWARD MSP BY 12Z. MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. OUTLOOK... .SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .SUNDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ /JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
946 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT... COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PUMPING UP A LOT OF VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT...WHILE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER MB HAS SPREAD COOLER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS THRU MOST OF NE MT. THIS HAS PRODUCED A VERY PRONOUNCED NE-SW TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHS THAT RANGED FROM AROUND 70 NE TO ALMOST 100 SW. MEANWHILE...THERE IS A STRONG SE FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SD/NE WHICH HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREAS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WON`T CHANGE OVERNIGHT...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DON`T CHANGE EITHER...THUS WILL EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRU 10 AM MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE LOW OVERCAST LIKELY TO FORM OVER SD/NE AND SPREAD OUR WAY...JUST REACHING OUR SE BY MORN. WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG NE-MT BORDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BRINGING MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE AREA AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CHANNEL. WHILE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT JUST BELOW 700 MB...AND VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...MODELS INDICATE INCREASED LIFT AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TOWARD MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP POPS WELL BELOW MENTION IN WORDED PRODUCTS. HRRR IS WAY OUT OF WHACK WITH THIS TOO. MINOR UPDATE TO MANLY WINDS/CLOUDS. SIMONSEN PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING FEATURING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OR SO AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY LATE EVENING...THUS THE LAKE WIND EXPIRATION TIME OF 9 PM LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK THAT WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS VERY MOIST AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT COULD BE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE ABOVE 4000 J/KG. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS PUSHING NORTHWARD MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND FOR WEAK FEATURES...THAT ARE NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS...TO TRIGGER SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THE TYPICALLY NOT FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT HOURS....FELT IT PRUDENT TO FEATURE THE POTENTIAL BY INCREASING POPS AND SEVERE WORDING. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH. LIKEWISE MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF WITH TEMPS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY A DRY LINE WILL SET UP AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EITHER WAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SURGE INTO THE 90S NORTH TO TRIPLE DIGITS SOUTH AS THE THERMAL RIDGE LINGERS FOR ONE LAST DAY. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...INTENSIFIES INTO A TIGHT LITTLE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS NE INTO CANADA. THIS DOES BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NE MT TUE NIGHT. THE WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IS NARROW...WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS TO OUR N. THIS ALSO DRAWS IN VERY DRY AIR FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE SYSTEM...QUICKLY SWEEPING AWAY AND VERY HUMID SSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THUS EXPECT ONLY A VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. LAST 2 GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN UP TO 65 KT WIND AT 850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER MODELS UP TO 45 KT. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION... WINDS AT THIS LEVEL LIKELY TO MIX TO SURFACE EVEN AT NIGHT...SO IT WILL WINDY TUE NIGHT/WED...AND COOLER WED. THE REST OF THE PERIOD HAS ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WITH SLOWLY RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM BACK UP TO AROUND 90. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. SUNDAY DAY 8 THOUGH...MODELS DEVELOP DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER OR NOT TO START MOVING A TROUGH FROM THE W TOWARD OUR AREA. WILL STAY MAINLY DRY UNTIL THIS BETTER RESOLVED. HICKS/SIMONSEN && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... BUT ARE NOT LIKELY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 20 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING THEN CALMING DURING THE MORNING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... UPDATE TO ZFP AND WRKAFP FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME WEAK VORTICITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. CHECKING THE NEW WRF SOUNDING FOR HARLOWTON...CIN WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 50 J/KG BY 00Z. LOW TO MID-LEVEL E FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THIS AREA...AND THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT THE GOING POPS ALONE. THE 12Z WRF AND LATEST HRRR KEPT THE REGION DRY INTO THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY FLOW WAS LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... EXPECT VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY. THE LONGER THE FRONT HOLDS OFF THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AND WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING COULD SEE AREAS FROM BILLINGS EAST WELL INTO THE 100S IF FRONT HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOKS WEAK THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH EARLY WEEK MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO WARM TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION AND LATER WEEK WINDS DOWNSLOPING DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE 80S. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY SATURDAY FOR TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. GRASS FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE GREENNESS DATA SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 70 TO 85 PERCENT OF THE GRASS ALREADY CURED OUT. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF 90-100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GRASSES WILL ONLY GET DRIER. LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT AND DON`T SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADD LIGHTNING STARTS...BUT WITH FOURTH OF JULY APPROACHING FIREWORKS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR FIRE STARTS IN THE NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE CONCERN IN HWO AND GRAPHIC AND WILL CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH LATER SHIFTS. CHAMBERS && .AVIATION... SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH AN MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A KLVM-KLWT LINE. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 088 061/099 066/099 068/096 059/088 059/084 060/085 0/U 10/U 01/B 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T LVM 087 051/095 057/093 059/088 050/083 050/081 050/081 1/U 10/N 01/U 22/T 20/U 01/U 12/T HDN 091 057/101 062/101 065/099 056/090 057/086 057/086 0/U 10/G 01/G 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T MLS 090 062/097 068/102 070/100 062/090 061/086 061/085 1/U 10/U 01/G 23/T 31/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 089 061/094 067/100 069/099 061/090 060/085 060/085 1/U 10/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 12/T 12/T BHK 084 060/087 064/096 067/098 061/089 059/083 058/082 1/N 10/N 02/T 22/T 21/U 12/T 22/T SHR 093 056/098 062/096 064/095 056/087 055/082 054/082 0/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED .DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIES JUST SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS AND STRETCHES BACK THROUGH MEAGHER COUNTY. HRRR PRODUCT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AS IT DEPICTS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AS STAYING TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. EMANUEL && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0445Z. BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW SHORT-LIVED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY GO. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED MID-/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW EVE MAINLY FROM KGTF TO KCTB WITH CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS VCNTY KCTB AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WARANAUSKAS && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA. CONVECTION TODAY WAS LIMITED BY A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MINOR DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS SATURDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY CONVECTIVE SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP THUS ENDING MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE ZONES UNDERNEATH MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO THE WEST. THE TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND BRING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE DECREASING TO THE EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL HAVE RATHER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM THE WEST WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ZELZER && .FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-TEENS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN ARE MID-SLOPE AND VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND HELENA THROUGH BROADWATER AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES TO NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY (ESSENTIALLY ALL OF FIRE ZONE 118 AND PARTS OF FIRE ZONE 116). DISCUSSION WITH FIRE MANAGERS INDICATE THAT FUEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT FUEL TYPES IS ALREADY NEAR-CRITICAL BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER FUELS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FIRE WEATHER WATCH CRITERIA AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ON SUN/MON...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WEEKEND SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE WINDS AND UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS NEEDED. WARANAUSKAS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 78 56 88 / 20 20 20 10 CTB 54 70 54 78 / 40 60 70 20 HLN 56 84 55 91 / 10 20 20 10 BZN 48 86 50 92 / 10 10 10 0 WEY 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 50 83 50 87 / 10 0 10 10 HVR 56 78 58 89 / 30 30 20 10 LWT 52 78 55 86 / 10 10 20 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMANUEL/GUSTAFSON LONG TERM...ZELZER AVIATION...BLANK WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
136 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE...A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 60 MPH WELL BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/ AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR 15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE 17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT. SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039- 040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082. KS...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENTAND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR 15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE 17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT. SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
748 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK THEN ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF TORONTO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE THUMB OF MI. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS FAR AS THE COLD FRONT GOES...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL COME THROUGH AS A BROKEN LINE OR WHETHER ALL OF WESTERN NY WILL GET WET. ITS JUST ONE OF THOSE MANY EVENTS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. GENERALLY THE TIMING IS SUCH THAT ANY LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NY...WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...TOGETHER WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY BUT STRONG FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SREF DATA HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS A HIGH PROBABILITY...ALONG THE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING A CONVECTIVE RESPONSE. OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND HENCE QPF IS LOW WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LESS THAN THAT FARTHER WEST...WITH SOME AREAS OF WESTERN NY POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AWHILE...BUT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. ON MONDAY THE DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF AND PROVIDE PERIODS OF ASCENT TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY. OF GREATER IMPORTANCE...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING ON. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW...WITH LESSER CHANCES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF NY WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BE DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LAKESHORES WITH THE LEAST UPSLOPE BUT MOST LAKE SHADOWING. HOWEVER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND +6C...WHICH WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ASSUMING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHILE DIMINISHING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY THE SUITE OF MODELS (CMC/NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ADVANCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR TO PASS ACROSS WNY WITH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHED CHCS FOR SHOWERS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH STILL COOL AIR ALOFT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST UNDER MORE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS TOUCHING INTO THE 70S...WHILE TO THE EAST MID AND UPPER 60S WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE PRECEDING NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW SPIRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE FAR EAST...AND LOW CHCS AT THIS. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING OMEGA BLOCK...STILL CENTERED NEAR 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADA MARITIMES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA...CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT UPON THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND FORCE SUMMER WARMTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE RID OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEARING OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS TO COVER FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW. MODELS BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ERASING THE MUGGY AND VERY WARM AT THE SURFACE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF TRACK...SATURDAY WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND DRIER. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA A CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY TOWARDS THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL BE JUST A LOW CHC. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND BRING A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY AS A BROKEN BAND ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY SUMMER STANDARDS WILL ENTER THE LOWER LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MONDAY MORNING EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY TO SCATTER OUT AND RETURN TO VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEN SET IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS AN UNSTABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP...AND A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A LONGER FETCH ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. ON LAKE ERIE A SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP WAVES IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOON UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN GENERAL...HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK APPEARS TO FEATURE SOMEWHAT DRAMATIC CHANGES AS CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A FLAT AND WARM RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THAT CNY/NEPA WILL BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MINOR IMPULSES ARE LIKELY TO TRANSIT THE AREA AT ANY TIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL DRYING IN THE MEAN RH FIELDS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND WILL REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TANDEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A 1-2 SD ANOMALOUS WARMING DEVELOPING IN THE THERMAL FIELDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM MOS/HPC GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHILE DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE 90 AGAIN. LASTLY...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS. HPC/TPC LEANING WITH THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO REAL EFFECT TO US SHOWING UP DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VCNTY OF KRME THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELDS ACROSS CNY AND NEPA THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CI OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING FOG SEEMS LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY KELM IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD. FOG ALSO PSBL AT KRME DUE TO HVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY ONLY MVFR. FOG CHECKLIST PARAMETERS ARE INCONCLUSIVE AT KELM FOR FOG REDUCING CONDITIONS TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS...BUT HISTORIC CASES IN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SUGGEST PREVAILING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS POSSIBLE. LOW CHC THAT STATION WILL LOCK IN FOR SVRL HOURS...BUT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ON SUNDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CIGS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SW AROUND 5 KTS SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA. MON...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA. TUES...VFR. CHC SHRA. WEDS - THUR...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1215 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOON UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT KELM. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR. SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1205 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOON UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTIES AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT KELM. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR. SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
953 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 950 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...I STILL TOPPED THEM IN 40-50-ISH RANGE FOR ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES WHERE PWAT WILL BE NEAR AN INCH. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT KELM. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR. SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
814 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS MELLOWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MIDDLE EVENING. THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT HAS TRAVELED ENTIRELY NW OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF TODAY BEGINNING EARLY...CONVECTION EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REMAINED LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE PRODUCING FRESH AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION SW OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS THE PULSE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. GIVEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION AND CIRRO-STRATUS FROM DEBBY THINK OUR MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND OPTED FOR THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE INTO EARLY MONDAY...LOW/MIDDLE 70S AND MUGGY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER MON ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST...EXTENDING 90+ HIGHS ALMOST TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THERE WILL BE NO LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH WILL HINDER DEEP CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL BE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES MON EVENING...ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ZERO IT IS RATHER LOW. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LESS OF A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR SMALL HAIL. LATE MON NIGHT COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF TUE. 850 TEMPS DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES C FROM MON TO TUE AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND AN INCH TUE AND COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TUE...LOW TO MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS USED IGNORING THE GFS SOLUTION FOR DEBBY...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COULD END UP HIGHER TUE AND TEMPERATURES TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LIKELY NOT BE AS COOL AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY FOR SUMMERTIME IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR LATE JUNE AS WELL. AS THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVES IN ON THURSDAY SOME VERY GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN MAY GET UNDERWAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SITS WELL REMOVED EAST OF THE U.S. IN THE ATLANTIC. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE FOR A GRADUAL ONSET OF SOME TRUE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR TOP 100 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE OCEAN. TOUGH TO SAY IF AND WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN. MODELS HINT THAT COULD BE IN ASSOC WITH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGING ALOFT SAT INTO SUN. MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK IN DOING SO AND POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20 AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EVENING CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS LBT THROUGH 01Z-02Z BUT OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAF. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN TODAY. LAST NIGHT FLO AND LBT HIT THE DECK HARD BUT CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS IDEAL WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING FLO AND LBT DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM TO MVFR. HRRR AND WRF-4KM SHOWING PCPN MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH TEMPO/PROB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SINCE CONVECTION COULD FLAIR UP AT ANY TIME AND I DONT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NAILING DOWN A TIME FOR THIS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...S-SSE WINDS 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS CURRENTLY IN THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE A GREAT DEAL INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY AS WINDS OFF NORTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA INCREASE AS DEBBY PUSHES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AREA. THUS SEAS UP TO 3 FEET DAYBREAK MONDAY POSSIBLE...FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS APPROACHING THE SC COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY...REPRESENTING THE OUTER RAIN SHIELD OF DEBBY. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE WATERS...MORE FAVORED OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE COLUMN BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FOR TS DEBBY KEEPS THE STORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS IS THE CASE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM KY/OH VALLEY. WINDS WOULD BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE AND 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS SOLUTION MOVES DEBBY ACROSS FL AND THEN TURNS THE STORM NORTHEAST...PASSING IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT DEEPENS. IF THAT HAPPENS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH HIGHER SEAS WOULD BE LIKELY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AT LEAST A SCA TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MON AND MON NIGHT MAY PUSH SEAS TO 6 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE...REQUIRING A SCA HEADLINE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WASHES OUT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH GRADUALLY FORMS. WIND MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO WSW ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WIND SPED WILL TEND TO BUILD OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 10 TO 15 OR EVEN 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THOUGH AS THIS WILL BE COAST-PARALLEL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BUILDING SEAS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF 20 NM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... THIS EVENING... SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT... STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. SUNDAY... A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY IN ERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED PUSH OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT... AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. EXPECT RESIDUAL DAYTIME CONVECTION TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING... LIKELY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOLDING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RECOVERING SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE NAM HOLDS AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES NOSING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ALONG WITH PW VALUES OVER 150% OF NORMAL. WITH THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BASED ON THE MEAN STEERING FLOW FROM THE WNW... STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DURING THE NIGHT... AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESSES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST... WE MAY SEE PERSISTENT SLOW-MOVING OR EVEN BACKBUILDING ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST... THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS QUITE HIGH... AND A SHROUD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING FROM SUCH ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF RALEIGH IN THE EVENING... DECREASING A BIT AND BECOMING SUPPRESSED IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NC LATE. WARM LOWS OF 69-73. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN THE EASTERN STATES... OUR WIND FIELDS IMPROVE WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM`S DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 KTS... AND MLCAPE (PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GSO) INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG WITH 30-50 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE 100+ KT JET CORE CENTERED OVER MI NOSING TOWARD NC) MAXIMIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WILL K-INDEX VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON... POTENTIALLY BECOMING ORGANIZED FROM NE TO SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT... HEADING TOWARD THE ESE OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS... AND MODEL-INDICATED CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUGGESTS A RISK OF HAIL AS WELL. GOOD HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH UP HIGHS TO 89-93. LOWS 62 NORTHWEST TO 68 SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT EASES TO THE SSE INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY... THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...SMITH CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... THIS EVENING... SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT... STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. SUNDAY... A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY... THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...SMITH CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92. THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35 POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. -SMITH TONIGHT: EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY... THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH SHORT TERM...BSD/NP LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...SMITH CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92. THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35 POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. -SMITH TONIGHT: EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY... SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH SHORT TERM...BSD/NP LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...BSD CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92. THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35 POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. -SMITH TONIGHT: EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE L/W TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY WE`LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE AIRMASS ASSOC WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER... AS INDICATED BY CRASHING THICKNESS AND PWAT VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT... SUPPORTING HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW 60S. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT (0.25-0.4IN / DAY) AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (10-15M /DAY)...THUS EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK NW FLOW PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BACK UP TO 90 BY THURSDAY AND THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASING PWAT...WILL BRING POPS TO NEAR-CLIMO VALUES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) BY FRIDAY FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH DON`T EXPECT MUCH BEYOND ISOLATED ACTIVITY GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISMS. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT FOR NOW...WHATEVER COMES OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC WEATHER AS THE CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT EASTWARD OVER TIME KEEP IT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY... SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH SHORT TERM...BSD/NP LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL A BLENDED SOLUTION. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A MAXIMUM IN THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. THESE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO CARRINGTON TO BISMARCK. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND AND BEGINNING TO SEE MORE PRONOUNCED CU DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL NEED FORCING ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM IS STILL NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS APPROACHING 50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR STILL SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN +18 AND +22 C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...BUT CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...COOLING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SAT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY FRI FOR SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...BUT EVEN THEN IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION... LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SUNDAY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ ROGERS/DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1044 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT THROUGH 00 UTC TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE MOVED INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BEMIDJI TO FARGO. REMOVED ALL POPS THROUGH 18 UTC EXCEPT IN THIS AREA WHERE A STRAY HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAY FALL. 15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM HALLOCK TO COOPERSTOWN TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POOLING ALONG BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH OF A CAP...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF AN 850 HPA JET IS ABSENT. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM REMAINS NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER...BUT 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS. SPC PAINTS 5 PERCENT HAIL THRESHOLD ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 UTC ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT TIMING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SPATIAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION... LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES. MOST RECENT MODELS HAVE ALL INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE WYO ALTHOUGH QPF IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST. ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SW HALF OF FA GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION AND ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. MAIN UPPER SUPPORT TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE LARGE MCS ALONG SD/NE BORDER AREA LIKELY INTERCEPTING DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN FA THIS AM AND WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES GREATER THAN AN INCH AND FAVORABLE SHEAR EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE MORNING. FARTHER NORTH AIRMASS MORE STABLE SO WILL CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY SOUTH HALF OF FA. LATER TODAY SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH FAVORED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS SE. FAVORED INSTABILITY/CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA HOWEVER WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTH ANY WHERE ALONG BOUNDARY HAS SOME POTENTIAL. SOLAR WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY SO DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL UNSURE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD LIKELY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. BOUNDARY EXITS FA TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. BASED ON BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL LIMIT POPS LATER TONIGHT TO FAR EASTERN FA. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH COLUMN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR DOES MOVE IN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY FOR PLENTY OF SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PHASES BACK UP WITH THE ECMWF. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THU. STABILITY DECREASES ON TUESDAY HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LOWER POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. ECMWF KEEP UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAPPED ATMOSPHERE YET ON THU. WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOME THU. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ ROGERS/DK/VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
940 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING ONTO LAKE ERIE AND WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND 1045 PM. ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM 16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT POISED TO MAKE AN ENTRY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. ONLY PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH THIS PACKAGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVED OVER LAKE HURON AND I EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD ERIE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION IN THE TEMPO GROUP AROUND 06Z. EXPECTING SOME CLEARING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHADOW TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. .OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI. && .MARINE... STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE. DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REL NEAR TERM...TK/REL SHORT TERM...REL LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
736 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM 16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT POISED TO MAKE AN ENTRY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. ONLY PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH THIS PACKAGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVED OVER LAKE HURON AND I EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD ERIE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION IN THE TEMPO GROUP AROUND 06Z. EXPECTING SOME CLEARING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHADOW TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. .OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI. && .MARINE... STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE. DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REL NEAR TERM...TK/REL SHORT TERM...REL LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/ SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS EXITED THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SEEING SOME LOW BASED MVFR CU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT THESE BASES SHOULD BECOME HIGHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT DEALS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL. NAM AND GFS NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG POTENTIAL. WE ARE MIXING MORE THAN FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE THREAT SOME. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THINKING BEST CHANCE OF FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT IN THE TAFS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /CHENARD && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/ MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO 65. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08 && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/ SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/ MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO 65. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08 && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BOARDER WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING MAY BE HAMPERED SOME TODAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR CONFIDENCE REASONS...IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS UNABLE TO MIX OUT TODAY. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE WATCH AND SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES. LOW LEVEL JET IS AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED AS MOST STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE ELEVATED. && AVIATION...06Z TAFS SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WFO UNR LONG TERM....WFO UNR AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN WY LATE THIS AFTN...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD TONIGHT. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WFO UNR LONG TERM....WFO UNR AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
252 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies again today and tonight. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong and capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Showers should be more scattered on Sunday and Monday, and mainly limited to the mountainous areas of the Inland Northwest. There is a good chance that Tuesday will be cool, rainy and breezy as a vigorous low pressure system moves through the region. A warming and drying trend is likely Wednesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Sunday: Another active evening in store. Large low pressure system continues to send short waves through our area with moist southerly flow. One wave fired severe convection this morning over northeast WA. That convection died off but more is just starting to develop. SPC has this area in a slight risk for this evening. HRRR suggests that this convection will move north/east of our area in the next few hours. Meanwhile another short wave has created a line of convection that has moved into south- central WA. PDT has already warned on the storm near Walla Walla. HRRR predicts this storm to move onto the Palouse for the next couple of hours. Behind this there is still additional showers/storms over central OR that will move into our area tonight. While we will be lacking the daytime heating the continued support from aloft means that this activity probably won`t just shut off with sunset. Shower activity on Monday should be confined to the northern Mountains. Thunderstorms are still a possibility but the strongest storms should be well to our north and east. RJ Sunday night through Monday: Deep upper level pressure system will continue to spin off the Northwest coastline. An upper level wave rotating around the low on Sunday will head north of the region as some short wave ridging of higher pressure moves into the region. This will result in much of the region drying out and warming up a bit for Monday. We will remain very unstable with CAPEs across eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle 400-800 J/KG. However, this instability will come with around 20-80 J/KG of convective inhibition (CIN). Models do not show any waves of energy moving across the region on Monday afternoon with the short wave ridging, thus I do not think we will be able to realize this convective energy. The mountains will have the best shot at some showers. The Panhandle mountains will have the easiest time to break the cap with around 20 J/KG of CIN. We may see a thunderstorm or two across these mountains, thus I left a slight chance of thunderstorms here. Monday night into Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system offshore will finally push into the region as it moves off to the northeast through Oregon and finally into British Columbia/Alberta by Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate a moist and very dynamic system as the low passes through the region. We will see an increasing chance for showers late Monday night with the bulk of the rainfall moving through during the day on Tuesday. Considering the good agreement between models and the high precipitation amounts being produced, I bumped up POPs and QPF values significantly. The Okanogan Highlands over to the northern Panhandle will likely pick up to around 0.50 to 1.0 inch Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some instability accompanying the low pressure passage may result in some thunderstorms across the eastern two- thirds of the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will be much colder with this system. /SVH Tuesday night through Saturday: Closed low will continue to exit the region as a ridge builds across the intermountain west. Tuesday night residual showers are possible, mainly along the US/Canadian border. After that, we dry out and start to warm up. There is some model discrepancy about what to do Friday and the weekend. The previous four runs of the ECMWF showed a negatively tilted trough moving across the area starting Friday afternoon. However, the latest run holds the ridge strong, and is more like the GFS. Kept some mountain showers across the north and cascades through Saturday given the uncertainty at this time. Temperatures Wednesday will start to increase, but still be several degrees below average. Then Thursday through Saturday we will see temperatures at least average, with Friday being the warmest day with temps about 5 degrees above average for this time of the year. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Washington this morning. This activity should continue through 21Z before gradually moving into southern BC. More thunderstorms will develop along the ID/MT border this afternoon. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the area from Oregon this afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with these showers. Abundant clouds tonight should prevent the formation of widespread fog or stratus but localized IFR cig/vis is possible. RJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 56 76 53 81 54 62 / 60 30 10 10 30 80 Coeur d`Alene 56 76 53 82 53 61 / 70 40 10 10 30 80 Pullman 53 74 51 79 51 64 / 60 10 10 10 40 80 Lewiston 59 84 58 86 59 72 / 40 10 10 10 40 70 Colville 53 76 51 85 53 61 / 70 60 10 10 30 90 Sandpoint 55 75 49 80 51 57 / 80 60 10 20 20 90 Kellogg 53 76 53 82 52 57 / 70 30 10 20 40 90 Moses Lake 54 81 52 84 56 71 / 20 20 0 10 40 50 Wenatchee 54 78 54 81 56 68 / 30 20 0 0 40 40 Omak 52 78 50 84 54 68 / 50 60 10 10 30 80 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue through early Saturday morning. Additional locally heavy rain can be expected. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: Clearing over eastern WA and the Panhandle is allowing temperatures to finally warm into the 80s. Coupled with the upper 40s to lower 50s dew points, the atmosphere should destabilize rather nicely. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late this afteroon. Convection has started to fire in the Clearwater Mtns, similar to the HRRR forecast. Based on this I have a bit more confidence in the HRRR, and so we`re looking at three potential areas of convection. The first is over the Clearwaters which should continue to fire and propagate northward through the ID Panhandle this evening. The second is forecast on the back end of the clouds moving into the Okanogan Highlands. The convection would move northwest into the north Cascades. The third area of convection would be over northeast OR ahead of the main cloud band moving into the area this evening. This convection would track along the ID/WA border area this evening. CAPE values are certainly supportive of moderate-sized hail. 0-6km shear is good, but not great. Enough to keep the storms from being pulse in nature but not sure there`s enough to make supercells. Heavy rain is still possible in the Cascades. But since the storms should be moving at a decent speed and this area hasn`t had a lot of rain recently I`m thinking that the flash flood threat is minimal. RJ Saturday through Monday: Closed low will remain off the Oregon coast through Monday. Models are in good agreement of pieces of energy ejecting from the low and moving through the forecast area. This will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Saturday is the best day for more widespread showers across the region. Instability parameters such as CAPE, LI and 0-6 km shear show very favorable conditions for thunderstorm development Saturday. The best area of instability will stretch up the Idaho Panhandle from Shoshone county north to the Canadian border and bending back toward the northeast mountains of WA. Kept the likely thunderstorm wording for the afternoon for these locations and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Elsewhere, slight chance exists across the basin, with a chance of thunder along the Cascades and Spokane/Palouse, Okanogan areas. Sunday and Monday there is still a threat of showers, but there is less moisture to work with and the axis of instability is further east. The best area of showers and thunderstorms will be across northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. With less moisture there is also the possibility of less cloud cover, and with less cloud cover, we could actually warm to near or slightly above average temperatures. /Nisbet Monday night through Friday: The persistent upper-low currently off the WA coast will lift to the northeast through the region bringing one last round of heavier precipitation before relatively drier conditions settle in. Models are in decent agreement that the low will lift E/NE through the area but still illustrate subtle differences on timing, strength, and how much of its energy pinches off and lingers over the region on Wed...yet they have come into much better agreement then runs 24 hours ago. Following the passage of the low pressure system, the general consensus amongst the models is to strengthen a ridge of high pressure over the Pac NW yielding mostly dry conditions for most locations. I use mostly dry wording due to each model depicting several very small midlevel impulses drifting under the ridge which could lead to localized areas of deeper instability and chance for afternoon showers/thunderstorms. We have utilized a blend of the EC/GFS for the Monday night/Tuesday period and trend toward their ensemble means thereafter. This resulted in Monday night and Tuesday being the wettest days of the period with models showing upwards of a quarter to three quarters of an inch (heavier in thunderstorms) possible through Tuesday night. The slower and more negatively tilted EC spreads precipitation across all locations in this period while the quicker GFS focuses more on the eastern third of WA and ID Panhandle...in response to developing westerly flow in the lee of the Cascades. The precipitation threat shifts toward the Canadian border for Tuesday night and potentially into Wednesday afternoon (per slower EC). By Wednesday night through Friday, upper-level ridging will be the more dominate weather feature leading to a warming and drying trend at most locations. As mentioned above, we will likely be monitoring a few midlevel small-scale circulations each capable of a introducing a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Given how far out these events are and lack of QPF in the models, the forecast indicates dry conditions based on the large scale subsidence under the ridge but could may need to be adjusted over small areas when and where these circulations track. Temperatures will be cooling below normal on Wednesday with abundant cloud cover and rainfall then begin a slow warming trend each day returning near to above normal by Friday. SB && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Attempted to time the end of the showers and thunderstorms based on radar and rapid update guidance. KLWS should be done with the thunder by 08Z, then the Spokane area by 09Z. Further west showers will be ending around the same time. With all the moisture left behind, some low clouds will linger in the Spokane area but not expecting any cieling or visibility issues at the terminals. Redevelopment is forecast for Saturday afternoon, with showers and isolated thunderstorms over extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. JL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 56 74 53 75 50 79 / 90 70 60 20 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 57 73 53 76 50 80 / 90 80 70 20 10 10 Pullman 53 71 49 75 49 77 / 80 70 60 10 10 10 Lewiston 61 80 55 83 54 83 / 70 60 40 10 10 10 Colville 58 76 52 78 49 85 / 90 80 70 40 10 10 Sandpoint 55 73 52 73 48 79 / 90 90 80 40 20 20 Kellogg 54 71 50 77 48 79 / 90 80 70 40 20 20 Moses Lake 58 79 53 80 53 82 / 70 50 20 10 0 10 Wenatchee 59 74 51 77 52 79 / 70 60 30 10 0 10 Omak 59 76 50 78 48 83 / 90 70 50 20 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1039 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .UPDATE... STILL SOME WEAK 0 TO1 KM CAPE SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL OF ANY SHOWER WILL LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LOW LAKE CLOUD POTENTIAL. THE SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE. LITTLE CUMULUS POTENTIAL MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012/ VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...WITH LEADING EDGE OF WIND SHIFT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ALSO ACCELERATING WEST SOUTHWEST AFTER INTERACTING WITH THIS WIND SHIFT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AROUND 00Z MONDAY. WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ARE PRESENT IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT WOULD TAKE SUSTAINED ROBUST ASCENT TO ACCESS IT. THUS...KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 00Z ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR MODEL GENERATING CELLS ALONG FRONT BUT HAS BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALL DAY...SO NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS SHOULD BRING A QUICK COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ON NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH MONDAY WILL FIGHT FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES OF 7 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS AND NORTHEAST FETCH. FOR NOW...DID NOT PUT ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN FORECAST. SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WL FALL OFF RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE LAKE BREEZE WL TAKE ITS TOOL ON TUE WITH LAKESHORE AREAS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND AREAS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LLJ PIVOTS ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SRN WI ON WED. HOWEVER PUSH OF WARM AIR ONLY SERVES TO ENHANCE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION OVER SOUTHERN WI WHILE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY. HENCE NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO BE TRIGGERED BY LLJ ON WED. THINKING 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER W.R.T. COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH WED EVE. FOR NOW...WL LEAN MORE ON OTHER MORE CONSISTENT SHORT-MID RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRONTAL TIMING. DID BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS ON WED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH 925H TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 20S AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO PULL IN THE WARMER AIR. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN GENERAL THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAKER FLOW AND WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS. ECMWF...GFS AND GEMH DO CARRY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CAN THU/THU NGT...WHICH FLATTENS /AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ BLOCKING RIDGE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF COOL FRONT ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CARRIES THRU SRN WI DURING THU... HOWEVER GEMH AND UKMO SLOWER WITH PASSAGE ON FRI. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH WL RETARD ANY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM MOVING NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO...UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO TRACK OF TS DEBBY BUT APPEARS HPC LEANING TOWARD MORE NRN TRACK ASSOCD WITH ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN IL ON FRIDAY BUT MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING DRIER NW FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD NUDGE SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. HENCE MAY KEEP SMALL POPS IN ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOCUSES ON DEBBY TO THE SOUTH AND UPSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGING...GFS CARRIES ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WI ON SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS BASED MORE ON GFS NEVER GETS HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MEMBERS GETTING MUCH MORE CHAOTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. LATEST ECMWF CONSISTENT ON PUMPING VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COOL FRONT WED NGT AND THU. PUSHED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THU. THE HOT TEMPS AND DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WL NUDGE THE HEAT INDEX TOWARD TRIPLE DIGITS. AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING KMSN...KUES AND KMKE BY 23Z AND KENW BY 00Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME BRISK BY THESE TIMES...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 01Z TO 03Z MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY LOWER A BIT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS LINGERING IN THE 10 TO 12 KNOT RANGE. OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO MARINE ZONES...AND UNTIL 17Z MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO MARINE ZONES. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING. CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ UPDATE...HENTZ TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
346 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND FM ERN CO INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MAINLY SLY MID LVL FLOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY KEEP HIGH BASED TSTM ACTVITY MORE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CATEGORY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OVER NERN CO IT LOOKS DRY WITH VERY HOT TEMPS AS READINGS WILL BE ABV 100 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME READINGS EXCEED 105 DEGREES OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 100 TODAY SO THAT SHOULD BE BKN. IF LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SSW ALONG THE FNT RANGE AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALL TIME HIGH OF 105 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. FOR TONIGHT MOST HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 03Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALONG THE WY-CO BORDER IN ZN 38 EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACTIVITY. .LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL HOLD THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AND 850 MB ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ON THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...HIGHS MAY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 90S. THE ONLY CHANGES IN MODELS COMPARED TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL...EARLY MONSOONAL...MOISTURE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL A PLUME OF DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM. WHEREAS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE FAVORING TRACKS THAT KEEP DEBBY WELL EAST OF HERE. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ROTATE OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS. THIS WILL BEST BE ANALYZED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION LOOKS TO REMAIN DIRE UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKES IT AROUND THE RIDGE AND OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STARTS ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH AFTERNOON/S ROUND OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE WLY AS A WK SFC LOW WAS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LOW EVENTUALLY REDEVELOPING IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING MORE SSW BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. BY 00Z THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE ACROSS. AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW. AT THIS TIME NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN OR EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FRONT RANGE IN A RED FLAG WARNING AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO 5%. ALSO WILL INCLUDE ZNS 214 AND 216 AS WELL AS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS FM THE SSW THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY...COULD SEE ISOLATD HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE BURN AREAS HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218-238>251. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM....DANKERS AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 145 AM EDT...SIGNIFICANT CUT BACK POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO LACK OF PRECIP ON THE RADAR. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FORCING FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS TOWARDS 09Z-12Z FOR MUCH OFT THE AREA...BUT ONSET IS DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH ACTIVE LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE...SO WILL MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS ALSO WHERE MODELS DEPICT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE NCEP 4KM WRF-NMM HAVE THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES E-SE BRUSHING THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/TACONICS AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A LINE OR TWO FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH SBCAPE OF GENERALLY 200-500 J/KG ANALYZED...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ANY STORMS CREATE COLD POOLS. ON MONDAY...MLMUCAPES ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE 500-1000 J/KG AT MOST ALTHOUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY HAVE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AS WELL AROUND MID DAY ON MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WHERE AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE THE H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE AXIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN PIVOT FROM NEAR CAPE COD TUESDAY EVENING TOWARDS CENTRAL MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FINALLY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND COOL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST OF MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER WED NIGHT...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A ECMWF/GFS/HPC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SFC...WILL BRING SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET INTO A BRIEF WARM SECTOR...AS H850 TEMPS SURGE TO 18 TO 20 C ON FRI /1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THE ECMWF HAS SOME OF THE H925 TEMPS GET TO 22 TO 26 C BY LATE FRI. THE TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE THE LATE PM OR EVENING TIME FRAME...SO WE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE IN PLACE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS /SBCAPES 1000-2000+ J/KG/. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS ON FRI...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS OVER SE CANADA...AND THE NORTHEAST...AS NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE TRACKING AROUND AND NEAR KGFL...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH BEHIND THE BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS...SO ANY RAIN AFTER 10Z WOULD HAVE TO COME FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOULD HAPPEN. OTHER STRONGER SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...AND COULD AFFECT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 09Z DEPENDING ON HOW IT EVOLVES...THEN GET TO THE KPSF AREA PERHAPS AROUND 10Z. AGAIN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN AFTER SUNRISE...BY MID MORNING. SO...SUGGESTING TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN BETWEEN 06Z-14Z DEPENDING ON WHICH TAF SITE...THEN PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z-14Z. BY LATE AFTERNOON 22Z-23Z THE PREDOMINANT RAIN SHOULD BE DONE...BUT KEEPING VCSH UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-05Z...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON HOW AND WHERE THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW FORMS...WHICH WOULD BE ADDRESSED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BELOW 5 KT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 11 KT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUTLOOK... MON NT...VFR/MVFR...SCT -SHRA. TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR....SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLATED MAINLY PM -TSRA. THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. FRI...VFR/MVFR...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DROP TO 50 TO 80 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH AND A THIRD OF RAIN TO THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY HYDRO ISSUES WITH JUST SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/JPV NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
458 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MAINLY WEST OF FMY BUT AS THIS MOVES INLAND, THE THREAT WILL INCLUDE GLADES COUNTY. IR SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS BAND BUILDING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND SO THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/ DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40 NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL COLLIER. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. && .MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40 NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL COLLIER. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR 46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT. TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST OF THE NGT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND WEST AREAS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE FORCING MECHANISM. FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
147 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. JPB && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS OUT THERE...AND STILL A BREATH OF A NORTH WIND (A BIT MORE BRISK IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES). TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN LOW LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S IN WIND. LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO DISPLAY THIS FAIRLY WIDE RANGE...AS THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME WIND IN THOSE EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE THUS INCREASED LOWS THERE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN SKC AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE DWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA... WHICH CERTAINLY LENDS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SAGINAW BAY BEFORE FROPA SHIFTED ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ONLY SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...AND WILL QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS JUST AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES... INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS. AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW. NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ- GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE LOCALLY. TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/. MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND 71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE /68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD. TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST. NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS. PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE AIRMASS TRANSITIONS. CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE. DETAILS: CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/ SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID 80S/. FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY... IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS. GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. N/NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/ A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON. TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25 KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER. MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SD SYNOPSIS...JPB SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JA AVIATION...MR MARINE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
258 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHOWERS HAVE WANED THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BUT A HUMID AIR MASS STILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A MID LEVEL JET IS SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING 2000 TO 2500 JOULE PER KILOGRAM BY 21 UTC. WITH THE INSTABILITY... LIFT AND MOISTURE...WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BECOME ACTIVE AFTER 18 UTC. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15000 AND 16000 FEET. THEREFORE THE BIGGEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WINDS WITH HAIL BEING LESS OF A THREAT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS MAINLY NORTH OF A FLORENCE TO SOUTHPORT LINE BUT WE CAN NOT COUNT OUT STRONG STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60 INLAND AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HALTING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ALONG THE COAST AS IT RUNS INTO A QUASI TROPICAL WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH DEBBY APPEARS TO BE BORNE OF SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODEL. EVEN SO IF THE TRACK OF DEBBY IS SHIFTED TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS IT MAY STILL HAVE A ROLE LOCALLY AS IT HOLDS UP THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND PREVENTS THE VIGOR OF COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WE WERE ANTICIPATING WHEN DEBBY WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A WESTBOUND SYSTEM. EVEN SO...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BOTH WILL BE MODULATED BY DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BARRING ANY COMPLICATIONS FROM DEBBY (I.E. APPROACHING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING SOME GUSTY WIND OR EVEN RAIN) THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF FAIRLY QUIETLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RH WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE. LARGE FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. FIGURING OUT MOISTURE RETURN IS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GRADUAL. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING MAY ACT TO SHUNT MUCH OF THE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AND KEEP IT OFFSHORE. NATURALLY THIS DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR GETTING RAINFALL CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AMPLITUDE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND BOLSTERING THE SUMMER HEAT. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET MAINLY FROM A SOUTHEAST SWELL EVERY 9 SECONDS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND INCREASE...THE LOCAL SHALLOW WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AREAS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... S OF 3 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTY COMPLIMENTS OF DEBBY IT WILL STILL BE A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MANAGES TO TRAVEL IS UNCERTAIN AND HINGES UPON NOT ONLY THE ACTUAL ENVELOPE OF CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE TROUGH/TROPICAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING AWAY FROM THE STORM TO THE ENE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADV CARRIES OVER FROM THE NEAR TERM BUT ONLY FOR NRN WATERS ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS WHERE 6 FT SEAS CONTINUE. NE OR EVEN E WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONCE AGAIN DEBBY COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE NOT ONLY DIRECTION BUT ALSO SPEED AND AS A RESULT...WAVES HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EVENTUAL PATH OF DEBBY IS STILL SO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THAT THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST OF WIND AND WAVES IS ABOUT AS SCABROUS AS IT GETS. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 400 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT THAN THE FARCICAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS MELLOWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MIDDLE EVENING. THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT HAS TRAVELED ENTIRELY NW OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF TODAY BEGINNING EARLY...CONVECTION EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REMAINED LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND DURATION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE PRODUCING FRESH AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION SW OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS THE PULSE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. GIVEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION AND CIRRO-STRATUS FROM DEBBY THINK OUR MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND OPTED FOR THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE INTO EARLY MONDAY...LOW/MIDDLE 70S AND MUGGY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER MON ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST...EXTENDING 90+ HIGHS ALMOST TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THERE WILL BE NO LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH WILL HINDER DEEP CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL BE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES MON EVENING...ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ZERO IT IS RATHER LOW. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LESS OF A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR SMALL HAIL. LATE MON NIGHT COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF TUE. 850 TEMPS DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES C FROM MON TO TUE AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND AN INCH TUE AND COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TUE...LOW TO MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS USED IGNORING THE GFS SOLUTION FOR DEBBY...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COULD END UP HIGHER TUE AND TEMPERATURES TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LIKELY NOT BE AS COOL AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY FOR SUMMERTIME IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR LATE JUNE AS WELL. AS THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVES IN ON THURSDAY SOME VERY GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN MAY GET UNDERWAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SITS WELL REMOVED EAST OF THE U.S. IN THE ATLANTIC. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE FOR A GRADUAL ONSET OF SOME TRUE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR TOP 100 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE OCEAN. TOUGH TO SAY IF AND WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN. MODELS HINT THAT COULD BE IN ASSOC WITH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGING ALOFT SAT INTO SUN. MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK IN DOING SO AND POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20 AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 05Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 814 PM SUNDAY...S-SSE WINDS 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS CURRENTLY IN THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE A GREAT DEAL INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY AS WINDS OFF NORTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA INCREASE AS DEBBY PUSHES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AREA. THUS SEAS UP TO 3 FEET DAYBREAK MONDAY POSSIBLE...FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS APPROACHING THE SC COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY...REPRESENTING THE OUTER RAIN SHIELD OF DEBBY. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE WATERS...MORE FAVORED OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE COLUMN BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FOR TS DEBBY KEEPS THE STORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS IS THE CASE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM KY/OH VALLEY. WINDS WOULD BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE AND 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS SOLUTION MOVES DEBBY ACROSS FL AND THEN TURNS THE STORM NORTHEAST...PASSING IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT DEEPENS. IF THAT HAPPENS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH HIGHER SEAS WOULD BE LIKELY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AT LEAST A SCA TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MON AND MON NIGHT MAY PUSH SEAS TO 6 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE...REQUIRING A SCA HEADLINE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WASHES OUT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH GRADUALLY FORMS. WIND MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO WSW ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WIND SPED WILL TEND TO BUILD OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 10 TO 15 OR EVEN 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THOUGH AS THIS WILL BE COAST-PARALLEL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BUILDING SEAS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF 20 NM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MOVING ONTO LAKE ERIE AND WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND 1045 PM. ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM 16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK IF THE NOT SOONER. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW LOW WILL THE CLOUDS BE. IT IS TYPICAL AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO GET SOME STRATUS ESPECIALLY ONE WITH A NORTH OR NORTHEAST COMPONENT. THE NAM MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT SOME IFR CONDITIONS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE MAINLY FROM MFD EAST AND STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL FORECAST SOME STRATUS AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT IT TO A VFR CEILING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. A NORTHEAST WIND MAY HELP GET SOME CLOUDS OVER INTO THAT AREA. TONIGHT THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 13C SO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A CEILING AT CLE...ERI AND YNG. .OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI. && .MARINE... STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE. DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REL NEAR TERM...TK/REL SHORT TERM...REL LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH 424 CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY WITH PALM BEACH, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES ADDED TO THE WATCH. THIS INCLUDES THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE COLLIER COUNTY AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. .PREVIOUS UPDATE...(ISSUED 807 AM EDT) TORNADO WATCH 424 CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY APPROACHING SW FLA COAST MAINLY AND INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED WARMING TOPS EARLIER HAVE NOW BEGUN TO COOL AGAIN. ALL OF THIS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS S FLA WITH THE EMPHASIS OF THE WEATHER IN THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEE REGION AND W. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/ DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40 NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL COLLIER. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY APPROACHING SW FLA COAST MAINLY AND INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED WARMING TOPS EARLIER HAVE NOW BEGUN TO COOL AGAIN. ALL OF THIS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS S FLA WITH THE EMPHASIS OF THE WEATHER IN THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEE REGION AND W. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/ DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40 NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL COLLIER. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .AVIATION... EXPECT THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND AS PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE STATE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A NARROW LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS APPROACHING THE GULF COAST TO THE LAKE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER SITE APF LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SITE APF. 85/AG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/ UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MAINLY WEST OF FMY BUT AS THIS MOVES INLAND, THE THREAT WILL INCLUDE GLADES COUNTY. IR SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS BAND BUILDING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY AND SO THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. KOB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/ DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 90 78 / 50 40 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 79 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 40 NAPLES 85 78 88 77 / 50 50 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL COLLIER. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOLER START TO THE WEEK. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND BECOMING QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF EARLY SHOWERS AND TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY. THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND COOL SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 70S IN EASTERN OHIO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SUBSIDES. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
628 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL TODAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THEN BECOME QUITE WARM BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RECENT RADAR DATA PLUS HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXITED PAST THE MOUNTAINS BY 7 AM, AND THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED ANA-COLD-FRONTAL SHOWERS BY 9 AM. THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE WITH DRIER INTRUSION OF POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS. NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW DEEPENING VERTICAL MIX WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER CAN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 8 AM READINGS, PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS, WHICH MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE MORE THAN 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL, AND QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SUMMER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT ANY REMAINING CEILING RESTRICTIONS NEAR KFKL AND KDUJ TO VANISH BY 13Z DUE TO POST FRONTAL DRYING. VFR WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR 46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT. TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST OF THE NGT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND WEST AREAS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE FORCING MECHANISM. FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH LK BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. A HUMID AIR MASS STILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A MID LEVEL JET IS SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING 2000 TO 2500 JOULE PER KILOGRAM BY 21 UTC. WITH THE INSTABILITY... LIFT AND MOISTURE...WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BECOME ACTIVE AFTER 18 UTC. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15000 AND 16000 FEET. THEREFORE THE BIGGEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WINDS WITH HAIL BEING LESS OF A THREAT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS MAINLY NORTH OF A FLORENCE TO SOUTHPORT LINE BUT WE CAN NOT COUNT OUT STRONG STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60 INLAND AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HALTING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ALONG THE COAST AS IT RUNS INTO A QUASI TROPICAL WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH DEBBY APPEARS TO BE BORNE OF SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODEL. EVEN SO IF THE TRACK OF DEBBY IS SHIFTED TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS IT MAY STILL HAVE A ROLE LOCALLY AS IT HOLDS UP THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND PREVENTS THE VIGOR OF COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WE WERE ANTICIPATING WHEN DEBBY WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A WESTBOUND SYSTEM. EVEN SO...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BOTH WILL BE MODULATED BY DEBBY AS THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BARRING ANY COMPLICATIONS FROM DEBBY (I.E. APPROACHING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING SOME GUSTY WIND OR EVEN RAIN) THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF FAIRLY QUIETLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RH WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE. LARGE FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. FIGURING OUT MOISTURE RETURN IS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GRADUAL. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING MAY ACT TO SHUNT MUCH OF THE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AND KEEP IT OFFSHORE. NATURALLY THIS DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR GETTING RAINFALL CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AMPLITUDE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND BOLSTERING THE SUMMER HEAT. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAT HAD SOME RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS IDEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DEBBY PROVIDING MID UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. WILL BRING LBT DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z AND ILM AND FLO TO MVFR. HRRR SHOWING PCPN MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OFF THE COAST. WRF-4KM KEEPS THE PCPN OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR ALL OF THE MORNING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER 18Z MOST PLACES AND GO WITH PROB OVER TEMPO AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS. SPC HAS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR FOR MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN AN EXACT LOCATION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 6 AM MONDAY...SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND INCREASE...THE LOCAL SHALLOW WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AREAS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... S OF 3 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTY COMPLIMENTS OF DEBBY IT WILL STILL BE A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MANAGES TO TRAVEL IS UNCERTAIN AND HINGES UPON NOT ONLY THE ACTUAL ENVELOPE OF CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM BUT ALSO A POSSIBLE TROUGH/TROPICAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING AWAY FROM THE STORM TO THE ENE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADV CARRIES OVER FROM THE NEAR TERM BUT ONLY FOR NRN WATERS ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS WHERE 6 FT SEAS CONTINUE. NE OR EVEN E WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONCE AGAIN DEBBY COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE NOT ONLY DIRECTION BUT ALSO SPEED AND AS A RESULT...WAVES HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EVENTUAL PATH OF DEBBY IS STILL SO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THAT THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST OF WIND AND WAVES IS ABOUT AS SCABROUS AS IT GETS. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 400 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT THAN THE FARCICAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1058 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 .UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT DAY ON THE WAY. AT 1000 AM IT WAS 91 DEGREES...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 100S APPEARS ON TRACK. AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA...WE MAY APPROACH THE ALL TIME HIGH OF 105 DEGREES AT DENVER. ONLY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ON. DID EXTEND LOW POPS TO THE FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THIS AREA THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. THE HOT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THUS WILL KEEP ALL THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE AT SEEING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME NORMAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE DIRECTION BY 06Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012/ SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND FM ERN CO INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MAINLY SLY MID LVL FLOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY KEEP HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY MORE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CATEGORY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OVER NERN CO IT LOOKS DRY WITH VERY HOT TEMPS AS READINGS WILL BE ABV 100 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME READINGS EXCEED 105 DEGREES OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 100 TODAY SO THAT SHOULD BE BKN. IF LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SSW ALONG THE FNT RANGE AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALL TIME HIGH OF 105 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. FOR TONIGHT MOST HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 03Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALONG THE WY-CO BORDER IN ZN 38 EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACTIVITY. LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL HOLD THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AND 850 MB ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ON THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...HIGHS MAY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 90S. THE ONLY CHANGES IN MODELS COMPARED TO A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL...EARLY MONSOONAL...MOISTURE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL A PLUME OF DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM. WHEREAS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE FAVORING TRACKS THAT KEEP DEBBY WELL EAST OF HERE. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ROTATE OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS. THIS WILL BEST BE ANALYZED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION LOOKS TO REMAIN DIRE UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKES IT AROUND THE RIDGE AND OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STARTS ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH AFTERNOON/S ROUND OF SHOWERS. AVIATION...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE WLY AS A WK SFC LOW WAS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LOW EVENTUALLY REDEVELOPING IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING MORE SSW BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. BY 00Z THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE ACROSS. AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW. AT THIS TIME NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FRONT RANGE IN A RED FLAG WARNING AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO 5%. ALSO WILL INCLUDE ZNS 214 AND 216 AS WELL AS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS FM THE SSW THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HYDROLOGY...COULD SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE BURN AREAS HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218- 238>251. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM....DANKERS AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ...ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM DEBBY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTER PORTION OF MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER OF DEBBY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CSG TO VDI. THIS HAS RESULTED ON BEST PRESSURE AND WIND GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TO THE NORTH...STILL SEEING STRONGER NORTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH AND HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS PRECIP...AREA OF MOISTURE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTER BANDS FROM DEBBY HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BUT SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A LACK OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ACTIVITY. LATEST RAP MIXED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE EVEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. BETTER VALUES TO THE NORTH BUT DRY AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. STILL HAVE CAPES OF 2500 J/KG SO NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON AREA YET AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTH. LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIRECTION WITH NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THE MOST LIKELY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE WITH THE GFS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. EFFECTS LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE STORM. COULD SEE SOME OUTER BANDS ENTER THE SOUTHERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. DEESE .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE NHC STILL KEEPING DEBBY IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF THE STORM DECIDES TO TAKE A FASTER TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ON SHORE THURSDAY AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ON THE EASTERN SIDE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND END POPS RELATED TO DEBBY BY THURSDAY. BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER RIDGE PUSHING INTO CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WOULD PROVIDE HOT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH DEBBY AND DOESNT START BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 90S BUT IF DEBBY MOVES OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS IN...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. 11 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE...DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO LIMIT TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL PROVIDE LOW END GUSTS FOR ATL AND HIGH GUSTS AT MCN AND CSG THROUGH TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE AND MOSTLY VFR FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND FRONT ALLOWS WINDS OVER NORTH GEORGIA TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. MEANWHILE...FLOW AROUND DEBBY WILL PROMOTE MORE EASTERLY FOR THE SOUTH. TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE NEAR ATL WHERE HAVE FAVORED A NE FLOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE... 18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION TUESDAY. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 67 89 60 92 / 20 10 10 10 ATLANTA 70 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10 BLAIRSVILLE 62 85 56 86 / 10 10 0 10 CARTERSVILLE 65 90 58 91 / 10 10 5 10 COLUMBUS 73 93 69 92 / 20 20 10 10 GAINESVILLE 67 87 62 88 / 20 10 5 10 MACON 73 93 64 92 / 30 20 10 20 ROME 66 92 58 92 / 10 10 5 10 PEACHTREE CITY 67 90 59 88 / 20 10 10 10 VIDALIA 74 89 70 90 / 70 50 30 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE. CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN ON THE HEAT. ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. FLAT RIDGE FRIDAY BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE 100-115 DEGREE RANGE (COOLEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND HOTTEST IN THE HILL CITY AREA). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND (NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WARMING) MAY NEGATE FULL 850MB MIXING THUS WENT AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE HILL CITY AREA...MID 90S TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. DID MENTION SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY BE TOO HOT FOR ANYTHING TO POP OR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES 5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA. RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5 PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 TUESDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....110 IN 1980 MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998 BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........108 WEDNESDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1940 HILL CITY....107 IN 1940 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1980 BURLINGTON...104 IN 1963 YUMA.........104 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........106 GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE........109 (2012) HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.......114 (2012) MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE..........112 (1933) BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE......107 (1990) YUMA ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE............108 (2012) TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE.........109 (2012) COLBY ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE...........111 (2012) GOODLAND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.....111 (1940) HILL CITY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE....117 (1936) MCCOOK ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.......114 (1932) BURLINGTON ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE...112 (1952) YUMA ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE.........109 (2008 AND PREVIOUS YRS) TRIBUNE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE......109 (2012) COLBY ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE........113 (1940) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016- 028-029-042. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...007 AVIATION...DR FIRE WEATHER...DR CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE. CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN OUT A POTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOTS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLATTENS OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PLACING THE REGION IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES 5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA. RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5 PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 MONDAY... GOODLAND.....104 IN 1990...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY) HILL CITY....108 IN 1911...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 114 (SET SUNDAY) MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 112 (1933) BURLINGTON...104 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 107 (1990) YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......106 COLBY........110 TUESDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....110 IN 1980 MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998 BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........108 GOODLAND.....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 HILL CITY....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 117 MCCOOK.......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 114 BURLINGTON...ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 107 YUMA.........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 TRIBUNE......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY) COLBY........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 (SET SUNDAY) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016- 028-029-042. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DR FIRE WEATHER...DR CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN...WITH UPPER LOWS OFF EACH COAST OF THE US. TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INFLUENCE OUR PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WITH ITS CENTER OVER KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LINGERING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15F WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS STRONG RIDGE COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO KEEP HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE. H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH AS 3C WARMER THAN TODAY...UNDER A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS PAST SUNDAY WHEN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TIED ALL TIME RECORDS FOR JUNE. CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WASNT THE CASE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE EVEN HOTTER. ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR ANY MONTH COULD BE SET WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 110...POSSIBLY 115. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN OUT A POTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOTS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLATTENS OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PLACING THE REGION IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL LIFT NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 26KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. KMCK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 DRY FUELS AND RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA SOUTHWEST OF WARM FRONT WHERE RH VALUES 5 TO 10 PERCENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH PEAK HEATING FOR THE DAY. RH VALUES NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CURRENT RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA. RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST POSSIBLY LOWER THAN 5 PERCENT. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER EVEN WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20 MPH GUSTS WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 MONDAY... GOODLAND.....104 IN 1990...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY) HILL CITY....108 IN 1911...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 114 (SET SUNDAY) MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 112 (1933) BURLINGTON...104 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 107 (1990) YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......106 COLBY........110 TUESDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....110 IN 1980 MCCOOK.......103 IN 1998 BURLINGTON...102 IN 1990 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........108 GOODLAND.....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 HILL CITY....ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 117 MCCOOK.......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 114 BURLINGTON...ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 107 YUMA.........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 TRIBUNE......ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 109 (SET SUNDAY) COLBY........ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 111 (SET SUNDAY) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>003-013>016-027>029-041-042. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016- 028-029-042. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DR FIRE WEATHER...DR CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATE 1800L: AREA OF RAIN W/ SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE LIFTING NNE ACROSS OUR WRN AND SWRN AREAS ATTM... ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT LATEST TRENDS - REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS FINE. MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM IN A LONG TRAJECTORY FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DOWN EAST AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGING ON HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE KATAHDIN REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL. THE WARM OCCLUSION AND ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LOW AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER MAINE BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME SKINNY CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL...AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM RECENT STORMS COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN EXISTING FLOOD WATCH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IS E XPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN EMERGES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL LIFT HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE AREA SATURDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE LOW 80S.. EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AVOIDING INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: IFR WILL THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND BHB TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...IF NOT VFR...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE TEMPO IFR. IFR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW. SHORT TERM: SCA MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WAVE HTS WILL STAY NEAR 4 FT IN A SE SWELL MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011- 015-031-032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...KHW MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
335 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION AND FLOODING. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FIRING MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE LAPS INDICATE SB CAPES UP TO 2000 JOULES AND LIS HITTING -5. THETA E RIDGE ALIGNING ALONG THIS AREA INTO EASTERN MAINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. TSTMS WILL CARRY HAIL/HEAVY RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR THE EVENING. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING FROM WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE COAST AND LIFTING NNE. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND RUC ALONG W/THE GEM BRING THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS KEEPING THE CWA IN A WET PATTERN. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL AS SSE FLOW IS ENTRENCHED FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 500MBS AND A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE. A FEED COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY AND POSSIBLY TORRENTIAL RAFL THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND SUCH AS BROWNVILLE, PATTEN AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY PER COORDINATION W/THE TOWN MANAGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE WARNINGS GO UP IN THE FUTURE W/THIS SETUP. THE SSE FLOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT POSES AN ISSUE W/POSSIBLE FLOODING AND GIVEN EXPECTED QPF TOTALS CLOSING IN ON 3 INCHES, DECIDED TO INCLUDE THIS AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR W/OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING GOING TO FULL MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND THEN IFR BY TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THE LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WAVES COULD COME CLOSE TO THE 6 FOOT CRITERIA BUT ATTM KEPT THINGS BELOW. SHORT TERM: && .HYDROLOGY... COORDINATED W/NERFC ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS TO SHOW RAPID RISES W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RAFL BUT ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD. MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER RISING STEADILY DUE TO HEAVY RAFL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL RAFL WILL LEAD TO THIS SITE TO REACH NEAR FLOOD. DOVM1(DOVER-FOXCROFT) AND EVEN GRNM1(GRINDSTONE) WILL SHOW SHARP RISES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011- 015-031-032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW DRY AND COOLER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND BECOMING QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CUMULUS AND WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES WILL COOL TO NEAR 40 TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TUESDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL MODELS ARE DRY, HOWEVER THE ECMWF INDICATES STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 20-21C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS IS 17-19C. FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 10 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL BUILD A FLAT RIDGE INTO THE REGION BEHIND NORTHEAST UPPER LOW AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. KEPT FORECAST HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN HPC GUIDANCE...BUT A TAD ABOVE GFS NUMBERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY...TAPERING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 15Z TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER REGION WEST OF A NEW ENGLAND LOW. GUSTS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOLER START TO THE WEEK. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MID-WEEK AND BECOMING QUITE WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN TEMP AND SKY. THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER VORTEX ACROSS QUEBEC THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NY. THE TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TODAY. ABOVE 800MB, A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A 1022MB HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND COOL SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY AROUND 00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SUBSIDES. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME MORNING FOG WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING NW WINDS INTO THE ERN CWA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING HAS DROPPED INLAND DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT VALUES INTO THE 0.60 INCH TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD STILL ALLOW INLAND MIN READINGS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. TUESDAY...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 12C-14C RANGE...GUIDANCE MAX INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOKED REASONABLE. MIXING SHOULD PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE WX CONCERNS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THAT TIME. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP ON A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE A POCKET OF H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE ELSEWHERE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND BEST FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING TO THE NORTH WOULD TEND TO A DRIER FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MAIN CORE OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WILL BE AOA 20C FOR THE WEST AND 17C FOR THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD MIX TO ABOUT H8 DURING THE DAY...SO TEMPS THERE ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF SFC TEMP POTENTIAL. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW STATES WILL TRY TO ERODE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODEL VARIABILITY IS STILL A LITTLE HIGH ON THE TIMING OF RIDGE DEAMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL WAA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEREBY KEEPING THE RIDGE A LITTLE SHARPER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AS WELL. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE IN THESE PATTERNS...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN CONTROL A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE PREDICTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 65 ACROSS THE WEST. FARTHER EAST...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS PASSAGE THAN THE GFS. COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE IDEA...WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF APPROACH FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY HAS BECOME A QUESTION WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE SPINNING IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBBIE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS THE GULF AND PREVENT NORTHWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAP FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. COOLER AIR LAGS THE FRONT SOMEWHAT...SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER SEVERAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. COOLEST AREAS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. THOUGH WITH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS NOW IN THE 60S...COOLING EFFECT IS DIMINISHING. RH VALUES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE NOT AN ISSUE ATTM. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... THE PATTERN BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL AFTER THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE AND WILL BRING A COUPLE VERY WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW AS MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH. ONE OF THE WEAK WAVES QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. ONCE AGAIN...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT STALLS FROM IA TO IN AND ROBS THE AREA OF ANY CHANCE OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE TRANQUIL PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. WINDS WL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH LK BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
146 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN BLDG HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE PLAINS AND TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS NOW CENTERED FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NRN MN. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...PWAT JUST 0.35 INCH OR 46 PCT OF NORMAL...TEMPS AT 06Z HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 40 AT THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE W. A STEADIER NNW WIND OVER THE E UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER HAS LIMITED THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE SOMEWHAT. TODAY...AS UPR RDG EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E...SFC HI PRES WL MOVE RIGHT OVER UPR MI THIS AFTN...BRINGING MOSUNNY WX. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 9C OVER THE E TO 11C OVER THE W BY 00Z...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM ALL ALONG THE SHORE...THE NW H925 FLOW FCST OVER THE E HALF WL TEND TO REINFORCE THE BREEZE OFF LK SUP WHILE DIMINISHING LK MI MODERATION. EXPECT SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS 35 OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...LOWERING MIN RH TO AS LO AS 25-30 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT AND THE GROUND IS MOIST...SO FIRE WX ISSUES SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. TNGT...SFC HI PRES WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER MOCLR NGT. PWAT IS FCST TO RISE A BIT HIER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG...REACHING 0.70 TO 0.75 INCH...AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS TOP THE RDG AND DRIFT INTO THE UPR LKS. THIS HIER PWAT WL BRING A SOMEWHAT WARMER OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE A BIT STRONGER RETURN WSW FLOW WL DVLP AFT 06Z ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI. TENDED AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL...CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER WINDS THRU MOST OF THE NGT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE RIDGE BRINGING RECORD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY FCST TO EXPAND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. CORE OF WARMEST AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...BUT WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS JUST SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY SO LAKE BREEZE OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 ON TUESDAY AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS PUSHING PAST 80 DEGREES OVR INLAND WEST AREAS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RECENT RUNS OF ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES NO QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH IS WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A WHILE. WILL CONTINUE THAT DRIER TREND IN THE FCST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY DESPITE POSSIBLE SCT MID CLOUDS. PRETTY SHARP INVERSION DEVELOPS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. STILL MIXING TO H85 LOOKS LIKELY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA. WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS SWATH OF H85 DWPNTS AOA +10C SURGE INTO UPR LAKES. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IMPACTS HOW QUICKLY SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS STILL ON QUICK SIDE ALONG WITH UKMET PRETTY MUCH MOVING FRONT THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN SLOWER...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE BUT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON CONVECTION CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEN AGAIN...REALLY MIGHT NOT MATTER GIVEN DEPTH OF WARM AIR OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER RIDGE AS IT MAY JUST END UP TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED UPPER JET SUPPORT AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LEADING SFC TROUGH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER FROPA FM ECMWF AND CANADIAN GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. BASED ON THIS IDEA WILL HAVE POCKET OF SMALL POPS OVER SCNTRL WHERE MAX FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SETS UP DURING PEAK HEATING. PRETTY LOW CHANCE THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE LARGER SCALE NEGATIVE FACTORS. POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT STAY ON LOW SIDE TOO. MODELS DO SEEM TO SHOW SECONDARY AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WORKS INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OVR THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST. SFC FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH SO THAT WOULD NOT BE FORCING MECHANISM. FCST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY SFC FRONT FCST TO SAG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UPR LAKES...SETTING UP MORE FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPR LAKES WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. MOISTURE IS MAIN QUESTION THOUGH WITH ECMWF MUCH DRIER H85-H7 THAN GFS. WILL BANK ON MOST PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A POP-UP SHRA/TSRA RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY IF LAKE BREEZES SET UP AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. TOO LOW OF A RISK TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS FCST THOUGH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO COOL SOME ALONG LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. H85 TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL FCST IN THE LOW-MID TEENS SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COOLING INLAND TO BE TOO NOTABLE WITH READINGS MAINLY STAYING IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING THE N WIND. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LIMITED FORCING...WHICH IS MAINLY CONFINED TO SC COUNTIES...AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE...BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK CAP AROUND 16K FT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE IT. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP WILL STRUGGLE IN THE DRY AIR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT. EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE BROKEN LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. DESPITE COLD FRONT BEING UNUSUALLY STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THE UPWARD MOTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT VIGOROUS. THE 5H TROF AXIS IS OFF THE COAST BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND THERE ARE NO OTHER FEATURES ALOFT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LIFT. THINK THE LINE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTAIN SOME DEEPER CONVECTION BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST BUT DO NOT THINK A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS ON THE CARDS FOR TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF FRONT/LINE WILL LIMIT TOTAL QPF...NEGATING FLOODING CONCERNS. COLD FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON LOWS OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. IF ANY LOCATIONS ARE TO FEEL THE FIRST IMPACTS OF THE IMPENDING COLD AIR IT WOULD BE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 60S WELL INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ONTO SMALL POP FOR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES TUESDAY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY OVERALL. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND MULTIPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN THE AREA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE COASTAL AREAS DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CLIMO AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY IMPLANTED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. NO POPS REQUIRED AFTER TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON. OVERALL SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH ON THURS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS DEEPER RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH VALUES REACHING BACK AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE MID 50S ON WED UP CLOSER TO 70 BY THE WEEKEND. A RAPID WARM UP WILL OCCUR AS H5 HEIGHTS REACH UP NEAR 592 DEM BY FRI EVENING. 850 TEMPS SHOW AN INCREASE FROM AROUND 12C EARLY WED MORNING UP CLOSE TO 25 C BY FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ON FRI AND REMAINING UP AROUND 90 FOR THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND VERY WARM TEMPS COULD BRING APPARENT TEMPS UP CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD WITH BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEBBY. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REMAIN ON AN E-NE TRACK...IT MAY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY TRACK A BIT CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST WHEN IT FINALLY MAKES A MOVE. LATEST GFS SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND SOME PCP POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL KEEP PCP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUN INTO MON TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCE FROM DEBBY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR LBT AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DIURNALLY BY 01Z. THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING A FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY 03-4Z. THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT LBT. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WANE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD...BUT IT COULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH THE AFFECT THE MYRTLES BY 06-07Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SHIFTING AGAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUSTY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. TUESDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT GRADUALLY PLOWS SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPEEDS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT...WITH A SOLID 20 KT POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT...A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. LOOKS AS THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...LIMITING GUSTINESS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT...BUT WITH OFFSHORE COMPONENT STARTING TO KNOCK BACK THE SEAS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT CONTINUING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH DEBBY. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS NOW AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL E-NE TRACK...THE LATEST MODELS HOLDS DEBBY OVER THE GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE FINALLY MAKING A MOVE. THE GFS SHOWS DEBBY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH NEXT SUN INTO MON WHILE THE ECWMF REMAINS SLOWER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN ON THURS WITH BERMUDA HIGH TAKING OVER FRI THROUGH SAT. THEREFORE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS FRI THROUGH SAT. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 SEAS ON THURS TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI THROUGH SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DEBBY MOVES UP THE COAST MAY SEE AN INCREASING SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND MAINTAIN A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ABOVE THE CAP IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP (NEAR DRY ADIABATIC) LAPSE RATES. THE 700MB-300MB LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY MISSING ELEMENT IS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED ASCENT TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY RESULT GENERATING A HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS OCCURRENCE IS SMALL...BUT NOT ZERO. SINCE THIS POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE IGNORED...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST FOR THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVER WEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR WITH NEAR RECORD VALUES EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE TABLE BELOW. SITE FORECAST RECORD YEAR HIGH HIGH WILLISTON 97 100 1931 DICKINSON 99 98 1961 BISMARCK 95 96 1961 MINOT 90 99 1910 JAMESTOWN 88 106 1931 THE COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS. FURTHERMORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT KEEPING THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES AROUND LONGER INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FROPA TIMING...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN H5 LOW WILL TOP THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT..BUT IT SHOULD TRACK ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CARRY SMALL POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC 25.12Z ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS THOSE DAYS SHOULD NOT BE WASH OUTS. && .AVIATION...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN MVFR CEILING TO KDIK...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS REMAINING AT THE OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS. RAP PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO KDIK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ009-010-017>021-031>035-040>046. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-043. && $$ TM...SHORT TERM CK...LONG TERM/AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT AS WARM AS SUNDAY CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GOOD CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER NE TN AND SW VA BUT NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED YET. WEAK COLD FRONT LIES OVER KY AND WV WITH PRE FRONTAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 3Z AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF TN INCLUDING SW VA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOLER NIGHT AS AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SW VA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS NEAR CHA MAY STILL BE CLOSE TO 90. HOWEVER DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH WILL HELP WITH THE BREAK IN THE HEAT. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV LOWS TONIGHT AND THE WARMER MAV HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SLOWLY DRIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL CREATE UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM DEBBY REMAINING FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO CREATE MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 88 59 90 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 62 84 56 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 84 56 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 80 53 86 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD/DMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1055 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and a threat of thunderstorms are forecast for Monday. Tuesday temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average as a low pressure system moves through the region. Widespread rain and breezy winds are expected. A warming and drying trend is likely Wednesday and Thursday. The weekend could bring more showers to the mountains and below average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... The latest in the series of short waves is moving through the area this morning bringing rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of highway 2. This activity will move northward out of the area with the short wave later this morning. Then more showers are expected to develop over the Cascades and northern mountains later this afternoon. Surface based instability is minimal in these areas so a few thunderstorms are possible but not expected to be severe. Farther to the east in the Panhandle the instability will be greater. SPC has this area in a Slight Risk today and given the 0-6 km shear this looks plausible. However the HRRR model runs this morning have been consistent in showing these storms developing east of the MT/ID border. Major weather system still on tap to move through the area on Tuesday. More on this with the afternoon discussion. RJ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern mountains this morning will gradually move northward into southern BC by 21Z. More showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Cascades and northern mountains this afternoon. This activity should not affect the TAF locations. A strong Pacific storm system will move into the area tonight bringing widespread rain and IFR/MVFR conditions Tuesday morning. RJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 79 54 56 43 73 50 / 20 30 90 50 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 79 54 56 44 71 47 / 20 20 100 60 10 0 Pullman 77 51 58 41 72 45 / 10 40 80 40 0 0 Lewiston 84 59 67 50 80 56 / 0 40 80 30 0 0 Colville 81 53 58 44 74 49 / 30 20 90 80 10 0 Sandpoint 77 52 54 42 69 44 / 30 20 100 90 20 0 Kellogg 79 52 55 43 71 49 / 20 40 100 70 10 10 Moses Lake 83 56 66 48 78 53 / 10 50 70 10 0 0 Wenatchee 80 56 65 51 77 56 / 10 60 70 20 0 0 Omak 80 54 62 46 76 52 / 20 30 70 40 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$