Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/24/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THE NEXT
24H...WITH S-SW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS IN THE 19Z-02Z TIME
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...EAST OF A TRINIDAD TO LIMON LINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS THE CLOUDCOVER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -PJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
.THE HEAT IS ON...
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE RETURN OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO COLORADO. ALL MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO 20+C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE
RECORDS FOR TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALAMOSA IS 90...AT COLO SPGS IS
95 AND FOR PUEBLO IS 100.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOW RH VALUES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVR MTN AREAS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EL
PASO COUNTY...WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE 06Z NAM12/GFS HINT AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRY LINE ON THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY THE 06Z HRRR TO BE 1500+ J/KG...AND
35 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR STORMS IF
ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SOME ISOLD POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS SO WL LEAVE THROUGH IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PJC
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SATURDAY THROUGH MON AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR OK OR KS...WITH
THE CENTER SHIFTING TO OVR THE TX PANHANDLE FOR TUE. THIS WL KEEP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WITH H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 17C-22C. HIGH TEMPS WL BE AROUND
RECORDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK.
HIGHS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL BE IN THE UPR 90S TO LOWER
100S...UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND MOSTLY 80S IN TELLER COUNTY.
A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY.
THE UPR RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET A
LITTLE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF TRACKS OVR MTS
AND THE DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WL
PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVR
AND NR THE MTS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
DURING THE NEXT 24H. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FRI
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KPUB. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222-
224>227.
&&
$$
10/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
726 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS THE CLOUDCOVER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -PJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..THE HEAT IS ON...
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE RETURN OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO COLORADO. ALL MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO 20+C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE
RECORDS FOR TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALAMOSA IS 90...AT COLO SPGS IS
95 AND FOR PUEBLO IS 100.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOW RH VALUES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVR MTN AREAS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EL
PASO COUNTY...WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE 06Z NAM12/GFS HINT AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRY LINE ON THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY THE 06Z HRRR TO BE 1500+ J/KG...AND
35 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR STORMS IF
ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SOME ISOLD POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS SO WL LEAVE THROUGH IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PJC
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SATURDAY THROUGH MON AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR OK OR KS...WITH
THE CENTER SHIFTING TO OVR THE TX PANHANDLE FOR TUE. THIS WL KEEP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WITH H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 17C-22C. HIGH TEMPS WL BE AROUND
RECORDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK.
HIGHS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL BE IN THE UPR 90S TO LOWER
100S...UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND MOSTLY 80S IN TELLER COUNTY.
A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY.
THE UPR RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET A
LITTLE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF TRACKS OVR MTS
AND THE DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WL
PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVR
AND NR THE MTS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
DURING THE NEXT 24H. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FRI
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KPUB. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>227.
&&
$$
81/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
442 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...THE HEAT IS ON...
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE RETURN OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO COLORADO. ALL MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO 20+C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE
RECORDS FOR TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALAMOSA IS 90...AT COLO SPGS IS
95 AND FOR PUEBLO IS 100.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOW RH VALUES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVR MTN AREAS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EL
PASO COUNTY...WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE 06Z NAM12/GFS HINT AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRY LINE ON THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY THE 06Z HRRR TO BE 1500+ J/KG...AND
35 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR STORMS IF
ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SOME ISOLD POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS SO WL LEAVE THROUGH IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PJC
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SATURDAY THROUGH MON AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR OK OR KS...WITH
THE CENTER SHIFTING TO OVR THE TX PANHANDLE FOR TUE. THIS WL KEEP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WITH H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 17C-22C. HIGH TEMPS WL BE AROUND
RECORDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK.
HIGHS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL BE IN THE UPR 90S TO LOWER
100S...UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND MOSTLY 80S IN TELLER COUNTY.
A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY.
THE UPR RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET A
LITTLE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF TRACKS OVR MTS
AND THE DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WL
PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVR
AND NR THE MTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
DURING THE NEXT 24H. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FRI
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KPUB. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>227.
&&
$$
81/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT WEATHER TO
THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAINING
OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND AND
STRETCHING TO JUST WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIP THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
MAY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
POSSIBLY WESTERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN TENDS TO DAMPEN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO PIECES OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BREAK OFF AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY WARM...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE A QUICK HOT START AND USED THE
IDENTICAL TEMP FROM 12Z THIS MORNING FOR 12Z FRIDAY.
MET MOS THE PRIMARY GUIDE ON TEMPS SINCE THE AIRMASS SHOULD START
VERY WARM AND THE OVERALL ANTICIPATION IS THAT MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
TOO FAST TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THAT SHOULD MEAN WARMING THRU AT
LEAST 17Z...POSSIBLY 18Z. I THINK PHL AND POINTS SOUTH WILL REACH
95 WITH SMALL CHC OF 97 BEFORE CLOUD COVER CAPS THE WARMUP.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER...AT LEAST IN MD/DE/NJ WITH A TENDENCY
FOR SW SFC FLOW TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTN.
THEREFORE BEST CHC FOR HEAT RELATED CRITERIA IS FROM KPNE SOUTHWARD.
PLS SEE SWODY2 AND OFFICE DISCUSSIONS OF SVR RISK. USED BLENDED
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS AND THE SPC WRF.
NOT LIKING NW SFC WIND FOR CONVECTION IN E PA TOMORROW AFTN AND
FEEL BEST CHC FOR STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN S NJ/DE/E MD.
POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH IN E PA AND MY OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THE
STRONG THUNDER AND POPS FCST IS AVERAGE.
03Z/21 SREF PROB FOR SVR IN THE I95 CORRIDOR COMBINES WITH AN
EC/GFS MODELED TT 48-50...LARGE INSTABILITY ...DECENT MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR TO ABOUT 30 KTS TO PROBABLY
PERMIT ISO OR A FEW SVR TSTMS IN THE I95 CORRIDOR FRI AFTN. CONTG
THE THEME OF HEAVY CONVECTION...PWAT OF 1.75 INCH WILL MEAN SOME
SPOTS WILL HAVE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN SLOW ESEWD
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR A BAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POPS IN
THE PREVIOUS FCST STILL LOOK FINE FOR NOW AND HAVE MOSTLY BEEN
UNCHANGED. THE 12Z GFS MODEL LOOKS BETTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PCPN LOOKS BETTER AT THIS POINT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN REMAIN ALONG
THE SHORE AREAS SAT MORNING...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS AT THE MOMENT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SAT AND SUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.
AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL (IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL) AND CHCS FOR SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS EACH DAY. WE HAVE KEPT IN THE
40 POP FOR MONDAY...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS TO CROSS THE
AREA. SMALLER SLGT CHC POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FCST MAINLY FAVORING THE NRN AREAS...CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW. CONFID ON TIMING LOCATION OF SHORT WAVES IS LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE FROM THIS
WEEK...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NJ PINELANDS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 1200 UTC. THE
CLOUDINESS COULD MUFFLE ANY MVFR PATCHY FOG (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMIV...WHICH IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT MVFR FOG IS IMMINENT.
THERE ARE ALSO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KRDG AND POSSIBLY
KABE BEFORE 1200 UTC. THERE IS NOT ANY LIGHTNING WITH THE ACTIVITY
NOW...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ABOVEMENTIONED
LOCATIONS EVEN IF THE SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID CLOUDS EARLY...AND CUMULUS THEREAFTER. FOR THE MOST PART...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC AT
THIS POINT...AND THE 0600 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS INDICATE THE BEST
TIMING AT THIS POINT. LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TERMINALS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING...GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - VFR. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING NEAR KACY.
SUNDAY - VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY - VFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
TUE - MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT...WIND BECOMES A GENERAL SW UNDER 15 KTS.
FRIDAY...W WIND LESS THAN 15 KT BECOME SSW IN THE AFTN. POSSIBLE
NW GUSTS OF 35 KTS VCNTY ANY STRONG TSTMS IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND IT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK IN
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES, ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WOULD NEED AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS TO HAVE ANY ISSUES ALTHOUGH WITH THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING VERY DRY THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY INCREASE BY
FRIDAY. SOME OF OUR SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS
COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING DEPENDING ON DURATION OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS. 1 HR GRIDDED FFG SUGGESTS N OF INTERSTATE 78 IN NJ AND
ANY URBAN AREA ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH HRLY GUIDANCE BETWEEN
1 AND 1.6 INCHES.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SUMMER CAN BE
COMFORTING BUT DO NOT SWIM NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS. THE DANGER OF
RIP CURRENTS EXISTS EVEN ON AN OVERALL LOW RISK DAY. TODAY THERE
IS STILL AN ONSHORE 10 SECOND SWELL THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
SOME CONCERN HAS BEEN EXPRESSED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC HURRICANE CHRIS ON OUR WATERS AND WHILE WE CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ATTM WE DONT HAVE MUCH EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD PUSH OF
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/PERIOD. WE WILL MONITOR THIS IN THE FUTURE
FORECASTS.
SO DESPITE THE BENIGN LOW RISK FORECAST...ITS HOT AND MOST SWIMMERS
ARE NOT AWARE OF THE DANGER OF JUMPING INTO THE OCEAN OFF JETTIES
AND PIERS. NOT SAFE! DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN LURK THERE. WE`VE
ALREADY HAD AT LEAST 4 FATAL THIS YEAR IN NJ .. AND TO MY
KNOWLEDGE "MOST" IF NOT ALL FATALITIES WERE AFTER HOURS..
UNGUARDED LOCATIONS AND APPARENTLY NEAR JETTIES.
WE DONT KNOW THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF YESTERDAYS FATALITIES BUT WARM
SST`S...UNGUARDED BEACHES...JETTIES ETC ARE A CONCERN.
RIP CURRENTS ARE A SILENT KILLER...NOT EASILY MONITORED AND THE
SCIENCE IS STILL TO BE FURTHER DEVELOPED.
WE NEED MORE AWARENESS OF THE DANGER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS COMPILED THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOST RECENT
YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR JUNE 22 FOR OUR EIGHT
CLIMATE SITES INCLUSIVE OF THE STARTING YEAR OF THE PERIOD OF
RECORD. LAST COLUMN IS THE TOTAL SO FAR THIS SEASON OF 90 OR
HIGHER OCCURRENCES, INCLUDING TODAY.
JUNE 22 PERIOD OF RECORD 90+
PHL 100 - 1988 1872 4
ACY 100 - 1988 1874 3
ILG 98 - 1988 1894 5
ABE 95 - 1941 1922 4
TTN 99 - 1988 1865 5
RDG 96 - 1921 1869 6
GED 95 - 2010 1948 5
MPO 90 - 1908 1901 0
RECORD HIGHS ON THE 21ST IN ILG (98) AND GED (99).
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ067>071.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-013-016-020>023-027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002-003.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HAYES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TODAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD LOW/MID LVL CYCLONE CENTERED JUST N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
GOMEX THRU 12Z SAT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
GENERATE A STEADY SERLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE LCL AIRMASS
BY DAYBREAK SAT.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW INTERESTING FEATURES. THE FIRST (AND
MOST OBVIOUS) IS A DISTINCT H85-H50 MOISTURE BOUNDARY HUGGING THE E
FL COAST...RESULTING IN A MUCH LOWER CLOUD COVER N OF THE BAHAMA
BANK. THE SECOND IS A DEEP LYR VORT MIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PENINSULA. WHILE THE DEEP SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THRU THE
DAY...THE VORT MIN IS TRAPPED UNDER A MID/UPR LVL ANTICYCLONE AND
SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF MOVEMENT. THERE IS A WEAK POCKET OF ENERGY
PUSHING UP FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT WINDS THRU THE H85-H30 LYR
ARE QUITE WEAK...ANY PVA WILL BE WEAK AS WELL.
MOISTURE PROFILE SUPPORTS BOTH A COASTAL/INTERIOR AND A NORTH/SOUTH
ZONE BREAKDOWN. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS INCREASINGLY
DENSE CLOUD COVER LIMITS SFC HEATING WHILE THE LACK OF MID LVL
SUPPORT LIMITS UPDRAFT STRENGTH. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AS PWAT
VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.4" WILL MAKE IT QUITE EASY TO WRING OUT SCT/NMRS
SHRAS FROM THE SATURATED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN ISOLD TSTM COVERAGE.
DESPITE DEEP SRLY FLOW...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SCT/NMRS SHRAS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MU80S. THE SAME CLOUD COVER/SRLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE L/M70S.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...W/R/T TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES
OVER THE GOMEX...THE MORE REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE OF
THE NON-GFS TYPE. THESE BRING A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CTRL GOMEX TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID
LEVEL HGT FIELD BEFORE TURNING IT GRADUALLY WWD ACROSS THE WRN GOMEX
AS A RIDGE BUILDS EWD FROM THE CTRL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
ERN CONUS TROUGH.
THIS WOULD STILL KEEP THE FL PENINSULA IN A VERY MOIST SE TO SOUTH
WIND REGIME WITH PWATS/POPS GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. ONE THING THAT COULD PUT A CRIMP IN THE PRECIP FORECAST WOULD
BE PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING EAST
CTRL GOMEX TC...HOWEVER NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING POP NUMBERS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. SPECIFIC
NUMBERS LOOK LIKE THIS: 60-70 SAT...50-60 SUN...50 MON-TUE AND THEN
30/40 WED THROUGH FRI. TEMPS START OFF A FEW DEGS BELOW CLIMO DUE
TO HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...SLOWLY RISING TO AROUND CLIMO
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 22/15Z...BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD SHRAS S OF
KTIX-KISM...VFR ELSEWHERE. BTWN 22/15Z-22/18Z...WIDESPREAD CIGS BTWN
FL080-100...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALL SITES EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST N OF KTIX WHERE SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE SCT...PRECIP
CONT THRU 22/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK RIDGE AXIS NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL COMBINE WITH
A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GENERATE A MODERATE
S/SERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT
OFFSHORE. LIMITED FETCH LENGTH WITH THE WINDS COMING OFF THE NRN
BAHAMAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SHORT WAVE PDS GENERALLY AOB 6SEC.
NMRS SHRAS AREAWIDE...ISOLD TSRAS MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
SAT-TUE...A FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS EXPECTED AS LOW PRES
SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE CTRL GOMEX. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO INCREASE
TO 15-20KT/6FT FROM ABOUT SUNDAY ONWARD...SO AT THE VERY LEAST WILL
LIKELY SEE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS BEING RAISED LATE THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS/WIND GUSTS AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 76 84 75 / 50 40 60 40
MCO 89 74 87 74 / 50 50 70 50
MLB 86 76 84 76 / 60 60 70 50
VRB 86 75 84 76 / 60 60 70 50
LEE 89 74 86 75 / 50 40 60 40
SFB 89 75 87 74 / 50 40 60 40
ORL 89 74 86 74 / 50 50 70 50
FPR 86 75 84 77 / 70 60 70 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
631 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL GO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AREA FOR 3-4 HOURS IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PORTION INCLUDING LANCASTER...CHESTERFIELD...KERSHAW
AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS NC...WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OR LOWER
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AVAILABILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE AND TRACK OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ORTHOGRAPHIC EFFECTS LOOK TO KEEP BULK OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. LATEST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE
INCLUDING SREF POPS...MOS THUNDER PROBABILITIES...AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR INDICATES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER W NC...MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE ESE. SOME STORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN FA. CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG AT AGS AND OGB WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WEAK FRONT IS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ARE TRYING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUTFLOW RACING AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING
SOME WEAKENING. ATMOSPHERE IS CAPED SOUTH SO MENTION OF THUNDER LEFT
OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
456 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLAN TO KEEP THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FROM CAE NORTHWARD AND TO THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER JUST TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS NC...WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH
OR LOWER JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AVAILABILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
TRACK OF WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ORTHOGRAPHIC EFFECTS LOOK TO KEEP BULK
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. LATEST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE
INCLUDING SREF POPS...MOS THUNDER PROBABILITIES...AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR INDICATES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER W NC...MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE ESE. SOME STORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN FA. CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG AT AGS AND OGB WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WEAK FRONT IS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ARE TRYING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUTFLOW RACING AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING
SOME WEAKENING. ATMOSPHERE IS CAPED SOUTH SO MENTION OF THUNDER LEFT
OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA IS PROJECTED TO SETTLE IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EVENING. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR IN OUR AREA. CU-RULE OFF THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN FADING OUT JUST AS QUICKLY. LARGER AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS THEY GET CLOSER TO US...BUT A FEW REMNANTS MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR TODAY...
BUT NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND THE CURRENT ZONES STILL
LOOK GOOD.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
HAVE SEEN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5-6KFT THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS...BUT SOME DECREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.
MAY SEE SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES LATER
SATURDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTION DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
00Z MODELS STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH HANDLING SHORT WAVE IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE
AND QPF FIELDS SAT NIGHT AND BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND....THEN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE COUNTRY. SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN LATER
NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING
BACK TOWARD THE MO AND MID MS VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A NICE EARLY SUMMER DAY AHEAD OF IL COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NE/IA/MO BORDER THAT DRIFTS EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL BY SUNSET. AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN IL. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 80S IN SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER TO TODAY THAN PAST FEW DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SAT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AROUND SD
THIS EVENING TRACKS TOWARD NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SAT AND
WEAKENS/FALLS APART AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE EAST. MOST MODELS KEEP QPF FIELDS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THROUGH
SAT NIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FROM PEORIA NORTH. TEMPS
WARM BACK UP DURING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S SAT AND 90-95F SUNDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS SW
AREAS. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN/SE IL. THIS DUE
TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL. SPC
HAS 5% RISK OF HAIL AND HIGHS WINDS NORTH OF I-70 LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SSE INTO THE MIDWEST MON AND GREAT LAKES REGION TUE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NE AREAS AND DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN SLIP
INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST WED WITH STARTING OF A WARMING
TREND WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY RETURNING LATER NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MO/MID MS VALLEY.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY WORSEN OVER IL.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
950 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA IS PROJECTED TO SETTLE IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EVENING. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR IN OUR AREA. CU-RULE OFF THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN FADING OUT JUST AS QUICKLY. LARGER AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS THEY GET CLOSER TO US...BUT A FEW REMNANTS MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR TODAY...
BUT NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND THE CURRENT ZONES STILL
LOOK GOOD.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE
HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5
KTS OR LESS ACRS THE WEST...AND AROUND 10 KTS ACRS THE EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
00Z MODELS STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH HANDLING SHORT WAVE IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE
AND QPF FIELDS SAT NIGHT AND BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND....THEN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE COUNTRY. SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN LATER
NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING
BACK TOWARD THE MO AND MID MS VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A NICE EARLY SUMMER DAY AHEAD OF IL COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NE/IA/MO BORDER THAT DRIFTS EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL BY SUNSET. AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN IL. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 80S IN SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER TO TODAY THAN PAST FEW DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SAT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AROUND SD
THIS EVENING TRACKS TOWARD NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SAT AND
WEAKENS/FALLS APART AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE EAST. MOST MODELS KEEP QPF FIELDS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THROUGH
SAT NIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FROM PEORIA NORTH. TEMPS
WARM BACK UP DURING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S SAT AND 90-95F SUNDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS SW
AREAS. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN/SE IL. THIS DUE
TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL. SPC
HAS 5% RISK OF HAIL AND HIGHS WINDS NORTH OF I-70 LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SSE INTO THE MIDWEST MON AND GREAT LAKES REGION TUE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NE AREAS AND DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN SLIP
INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST WED WITH STARTING OF A WARMING
TREND WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY RETURNING LATER NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MO/MID MS VALLEY.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY WORSEN OVER IL.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING HAVE NOW MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (OFB) HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OSAGE COUNTY...THEN NORTHWARD TO EAST OF MARYSVILLE. NORTHEAST OF
THIS OFB...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. WHILE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE OFB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KS. THOUGH
THE HRRR AND ARW DID SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
ALONG THE NE BORDER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OFB ALONG THE NE BORDER. I
INSERTED 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS BROWN...NEMAHA...JACKSON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN CASE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE TO
THE KS BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO
THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE C RANGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 102 TO 104
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ATTM...I ONLY HAVE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 103
DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...THEN HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GARGAN
LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT.
...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN EXPECTED TO FORCE A HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ANY MODIFYING OR COOLING INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE MODEST WITH EAST WINDS MON INTO TUES YET HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH MON/TUES. WIDE SPREAD OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MON/TUES AND PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN COOL BIAS OF GFS BASED NUMBERS.
HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDS INTO THURS AS UPPER
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND
100 AND PERHAPS 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA
WITH AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS TO BE THE RULE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EARLY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE IN THE FORECAST.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
544 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
...UPDATED UPDATE AND AVIATION SECTIONS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO
FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO
FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED
QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO
BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY, AND VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN WYOMING WITH A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 14Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
NEAR 050 WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AND GRADUALLY EVAPORATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 105 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 105 74 107 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 105 73 105 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 70 105 73 106 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 70 105 75 106 / 10 0 0 0
P28 70 100 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUTHI
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
402 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS INTO
SATURDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH 700MB MOISTURE AND WAA
WILL BREAK TO CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE TILL EARLY EVENING THEN
A LLJ WILL SETUP JUST ABOVE THE GROUND TO NEAR 50 KTS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 15 TO 22 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 22 TO
32 KTS BY 15-16Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 105 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 105 74 107 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 105 73 105 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 70 105 73 106 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 70 105 75 106 / 10 0 0 0
P28 70 100 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED AT KGLD AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS...AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND 35KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
101 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A BROAD RIDGE OMEGA PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. A HEAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH MAKE IT INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO MON THROUGH
WED...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...500MB HIGH BEGINS
TO ELONGATE AND RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED AT KGLD AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS...AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND 35KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH 01Z. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 35 WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. LATEST RUC BL WINDS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS...AND WITH STRATUS STILL
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ONLY IMPROVE. I
CONSIDERED HAVING THE ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 03Z...HOWEVER OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING TO AN END AROUND
00-01Z WHEN WE BEGIN TO LOOSE DAYTIME MIXING. THOUGH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD COME TO AN END...WE WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST SKY COVER THIS MORNING FOR
STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN CWA. GOOD BL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH SUPPORTING CONTINUED STRATUS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THIS STRATUS ERODING MIDDAY...SO I KEPT AFTERNOON SKY
COVER IN MOSTLY SUNNY CATEGORY. I ADJUSTED TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NW TO SHOW POSSIBILITY FOR EARLIER INITIATION AS CAP
WEAKENS OVER YUMA COUNTY. CAP REMAINS STRONG ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWEST CIN AROUND -40 IN PROXIMITY OF
DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 00Z. IF THE STRATUS WERE TO
HOLD ON HOWEVER THIS COULD GREATLY AFFECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE TODAY WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOCUSING ALONG THE
TROUGH AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER
AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A BROAD RIDGE OMEGA PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. A HEAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH MAKE IT INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO MON THROUGH
WED...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...500MB HIGH BEGINS
TO ELONGATE AND RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED AT KGLD AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS...AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND 35KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1107 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH 01Z. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 35 WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. LATEST RUC BL WINDS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS...AND WITH STRATUS STILL
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ONLY IMPROVE. I
CONSIDERED HAVING THE ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 03Z...HOWEVER OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING TO AN END AROUND
00-01Z WHEN WE BEGIN TO LOOSE DAYTIME MIXING. THOUGH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD COME TO AN END...WE WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST SKY COVER THIS MORNING FOR
STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN CWA. GOOD BL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH SUPPORTING CONTINUED STRATUS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THIS STRATUS ERODING MIDDAY...SO I KEPT AFTERNOON SKY
COVER IN MOSTLY SUNNY CATEGORY. I ADJUSTED TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NW TO SHOW POSSIBILITY FOR EARLIER INITIATION AS CAP
WEAKENS OVER YUMA COUNTY. CAP REMAINS STRONG ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWEST CIN AROUND -40 IN PROXIMITY OF
DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 00Z. IF THE STRATUS WERE TO
HOLD ON HOWEVER THIS COULD GREATLY AFFECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE TODAY WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOCUSING ALONG THE
TROUGH AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER
AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A BROAD RIDGE OMEGA PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. A HEAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH MAKE IT INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO MON THROUGH
WED...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...500MB HIGH BEGINS
TO ELONGATE AND RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
VFR WITH OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGLD THIS MORNING THROUGH 18Z AS A PLUME OF HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY AFTER 00Z. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AFTER ABOUT 14Z AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS THE
STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT BOTH
KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. KMCK WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER ABOUT 15Z
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...WITH A STORM MOVING ACROSS
ELLIOTT COUNTY AT 1724Z...AND SOME SMALL ECHOES SHOWING UP OVER
POWELL AND MENIFEE COUNTIES. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
GRIDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. THE
12Z NAM AND HRRR SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF FLEMING
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ALSO DECREASED
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES TO 40 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON DIE OUT. KEPT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS. UPSTREAM...THE
FRONT IS NEARLY AT THE CWA BORDER BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY PRESENT NORTH
OF LEX IS MOVING TO THE NE AND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF FLEMING
COUNTY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AS STILL BANKING ON AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL
NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP ACROSS THE AREA HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW
POSITIONED NOW THROUGH CENTRAL OH SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KY JUST
ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH SDF. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 80 AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A REMINISCENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS REACHED THIS AREA AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING THE ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
DEALING WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BLUEGRASS
SEEMS TO BE AROUND 12Z TO 13Z. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN LITTLE ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN A GENERAL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY HEATS UP AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SO WILL GO WITH SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF THE FA FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE GENERAL WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME RUN
OF THE MILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA TODAY AND WITH
THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 15 KFT...WOULD NEED A PRETTY RADICAL
UPDRAFT TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. WILL PROG THE FRONT TO BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
SATURDAY. ONE ISSUE HERE WOULD BE THAT GIVEN HOW SHEARED OUT THIS
FRONT IS LOOKING...A SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL MEAN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS WILL MISS OUT ON MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXTENUATING THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY PERIOD...WHERE LOCATIONS WERE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT...SOME BETTER
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THE DEEP EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THE BEST SETUP FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE LOCATED HERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED RAINFALL...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WITH ALREADY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
BECOMING A VERY STABLE OMEGA BLOCK WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW JUST OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THE BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST AND WILL NOW EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...UP ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE RIDGE
PUSHES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EASTERN LOW WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE THE AREA. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE
BLOCKING SYSTEMS...THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SUSPECT AND COULD
VARY AS MUCH AS 12 HOURS EITHER WAY. WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING
SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONTS TO BE VERY STRONG. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO MCS SYSTEMS WHICH ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE
TO NAIL DOWN THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT FOR A MODEL
BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THEM TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDER IN TAFS. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN DRY WILL NOT PLACE ANY FOG IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. IF AN ISOLATED STORM WAS TO MOVE ACROSS A TAF
SITE TODAY...FOG WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. THE
12Z NAM AND HRRR SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF FLEMING
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ALSO DECREASED
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES TO 40 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON DIE OUT. KEPT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS. UPSTREAM...THE
FRONT IS NEARLY AT THE CWA BORDER BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY PRESENT NORTH
OF LEX IS MOVING TO THE NE AND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF FLEMING
COUNTY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AS STILL BANKING ON AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL
NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP ACROSS THE AREA HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW
POSITIONED NOW THROUGH CENTRAL OH SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KY JUST
ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH SDF. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 80 AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A REMINISCENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS REACHED THIS AREA AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING THE ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
DEALING WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BLUEGRASS
SEEMS TO BE AROUND 12Z TO 13Z. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN LITTLE ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN A GENERAL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY HEATS UP AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SO WILL GO WITH SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF THE FA FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE GENERAL WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME RUN
OF THE MILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA TODAY AND WITH
THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 15 KFT...WOULD NEED A PRETTY RADICAL
UPDRAFT TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. WILL PROG THE FRONT TO BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
SATURDAY. ONE ISSUE HERE WOULD BE THAT GIVEN HOW SHEARED OUT THIS
FRONT IS LOOKING...A SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL MEAN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS WILL MISS OUT ON MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXTENUATING THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY PERIOD...WHERE LOCATIONS WERE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT...SOME BETTER
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THE DEEP EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THE BEST SETUP FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE LOCATED HERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED RAINFALL...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WITH ALREADY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
BECOMING A VERY STABLE OMEGA BLOCK WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW JUST OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THE BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST AND WILL NOW EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...UP ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE RIDGE
PUSHES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EASTERN LOW WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE THE AREA. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE
BLOCKING SYSTEMS...THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SUSPECT AND COULD
VARY AS MUCH AS 12 HOURS EITHER WAY. WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING
SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONTS TO BE VERY STRONG. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO MCS SYSTEMS WHICH ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE
TO NAIL DOWN THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT FOR A MODEL
BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THEM TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES BY
13Z...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES. THEREFORE...WILL PUT IN VCTS INTO THE TAF SITES FOR THE
17Z TO 20Z PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. DEPENDING UPON WHAT TAF SITES GET
GOOD PRECIP TODAY WILL DECIDE HOW BAD FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
138 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BORDERING VA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. UPDATED THEN FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A GENERAL
DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENTLY AN OUTFLOW
IS ALMOST AT OUR NW BLUEGRASS COUNTIES AND WHILE NO EVIDENCE OF FLARE
UPS ARE PRESENT...THE ACTUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT LIES THROUGH SDF NOW AND SO WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS. STILL BANKING ON AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
JUST AFTER SUNRISE SO KEPT THAT IN THE FORECAST. THE OTHER CONCERN
HERE IN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO KEPT THAT IN THE GRIDS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT
OUT ADDRESSING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THIS LINE. A LONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OHIO
DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY/TN HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
KICK OFF MUCH CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT THUS FAR. GIVEN THE LOSS OF
HEATING...IT IS DOUBTFUL IT WILL KICK ANYTHING OFF IN OUR AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN A
BIT...HOLDING ONTO THE POPS THE LONGEST IN THE SOUTH...WHERE A FEW
MORE POPS UP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...DID NOT
WANT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE POPS IN THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY...SO HAVE REDUCED THESE TO ISOLATED CHANCES BY AROUND DAWN.
MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE CURRENT HOURLIES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOK ON
TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU
JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE AREA. WILL HANG
ONTO THE ISOLATED POPS A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE ASSESSING HOW LONG
OF A LULL THERE WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IF NOT
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A
POTENTIAL RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARDS DAWN AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE LATEST SREF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
SCENARIO. FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE HOURLIES TO MATCH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT
APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH
ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT
AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR
THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. AT
THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON
MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID
WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR AT BOTH LOZ AND SME FOR NOW
TOWARDS DAWN AS SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES BY DAWN...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. JUST AFTER SUNRISE...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES. THEREFORE...WILL PUT IN VCTS INTO THE TAF SITES FOR THE
17Z TO 20Z PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESS FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MAY SET UP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NY BACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH IS ALSO
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS MORNING. STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MD THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION STARTING TO BREAK OUT
BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN THE WEST...AND MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND MOST LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS HAS A VERY NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE. WILL BE
A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR EVENT...WITH PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING ARE STEEPER THAN THE 06Z
FORECASTED LAPSE RATES FROM THE NAM.
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS. IN
ADDITION...TRIED TO TIME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THE HRRR
SOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...TAKING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/CLEARING SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
50S BY THIS TIME...SO IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL START
TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE. MAY SEE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOP AND
THIS ALONG WITH TERRAIN MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING CHANCE OF THUNDER IS MINIMAL...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS IN MOIST AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF IS FASTER AND SUGGESTS
AND EARLY MONDAY PASSAGE...BUT PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS
WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS IF SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS LOW AND THUS
KEPT THE GENERAL DRY FORECAST IN GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ANY
CIGS ARE WELL ABOVE 3 KFT. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ONLY A
RESIDUAL 5-6KFT DECK WILL BE LEFTOVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT HELP TO DEVELOP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING THIS AFTN AND ENDING BY LATE EVE. GUSTY
WINDS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS
IS EXPECTED...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ANY TSTMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN VA/ERN MD TODAY.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AOB 15 KT FOR
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFF THE COAST
BY SUNDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT DCA/BWI/IAD ON THURSDAY WERE AS FOLLOWS...
DCA...99F.
BWI...100F.
IAD...96F.
WITH 99 RECORDED...DCA BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
98 SET IN 1988. WITH 100 RECORDED...BWI TIED THE OLD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100 SET IN 1923. AT IAD...96 DID NOT BREAK THE
RECORD WHICH WAS 98 SET IN 1988.
A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 78 WAS ALSO SET AT DCA. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD OF 76 FROM 2010.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1029 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...THEN A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS ONTARIO FROM NEAR YQK THEN
DROPPING INTO NODAK AND FAR NW CORNER MN. ONE AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
DVLPG ACROSS ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER E-W BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
NODAK. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF THE NODAK AREA
ALLOWING IT TO EXPAND SE THIS EVE/TNGHT INTO CNTRL MN/WC WI AHD OF
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO/NE MN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. CDFNT DROPS INTO N MN THIS EVENING AND
THEN PICKS UP SPEED LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR IA BORDER BY 12Z.
NICE DRY AIR MASS PUSHES INTO AREA IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS 1025 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DEW POINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING INTO
THE 40S MAINLY ACROSS WI CWA WITH NE DRY NE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN ACROSS AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WORK BACK INTO AREA.
VERY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS AOA 590 DM INTO SW MN. SHUD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS
IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WC MN. MID LEVEL TEMPS PRETTY WARM
WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROF MOVING THRU BRING A
BIT COOLER AIR MASS INTO AREA. COOLER WNW FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR
BALANCE OF FORECAST WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT...ARE THE FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MSP...SHRA SHOULD SKIRT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET
AGL THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...MON/TUE/WED...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...THEN A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS ONTARIO FROM NEAR YQK THEN
DROPPING INTO NODAK AND FAR NW CORNER MN. ONE AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
DVLPG ACROSS ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER E-W BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
NODAK. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF THE NODAK AREA
ALLOWING IT TO EXPAND SE THIS EVE/TNGHT INTO CNTRL MN/WC WI AHD OF
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO/NE MN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. CDFNT DROPS INTO N MN THIS EVENING AND
THEN PICKS UP SPEED LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR IA BORDER BY 12Z.
NICE DRY AIR MASS PUSHES INTO AREA IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS 1025 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DEW POINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING INTO
THE 40S MAINLY ACROSS WI CWA WITH NE DRY NE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN ACROSS AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WORK BACK INTO AREA.
VERY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS AOA 590 DM INTO SW MN. SHUD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS
IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WC MN. MID LEVEL TEMPS PRETTY WARM
WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROF MOVING THRU BRING A
BIT COOLER AIR MASS INTO AREA. COOLER WNW FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR
BALANCE OF FORECAST WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS WHETHER CONVECTION ACROSS SE ND WILL
CONTINUE A SE TRAJECTORY TOWARD WC MN AS THE LATEST HRRR
BELIEVES...OR DOES THE OVERALL DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE
GETTING INTO MPX TAF AREA.
WX MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TOO MANY LARGE SCALE CONVECTION
SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...AND THE LATEST RUN CONTINUES THE
SAME SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ARND 4-6K...THE FORCING RELATED TO THE
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY AT AXN/STC WITH VCSH...BUT
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE NON-PRECIPITATION TAFS. WNDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LGT FROM THE S/SE EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE E/NE BY 12Z
AS THE REAL COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP...THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE 3.5K OR ABV.
MSP...SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE S/SE THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WNDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE E/NE TOWARD 12Z...WITH A MORE DEFINITE SHIFT
TO THE NE AFT 14-16Z. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 5K THRU THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DOES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
OVERNIGHT...CIGS COULD LOWER TO 3.5K...OR LOW END VFR. SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON/TUE/WED...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
UPDATE TO ZFP AND WRKAFP. HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CLOUDS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A JET MAX AND PIECE OF VORTICITY
MOVING OUT OF UT. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH WY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWED SOME
DEGREE OF CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW TO MID LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION AT 700 MB. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WAS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVED E THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
40S OVER WESTERN SD AND E WY THIS MORNING...SO LOW-LEVELS WILL TAKE
TIME TO MOISTEN UP. THE ABOVE FACTORS POINT TO LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A DRY HRRR AND THE WRF
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ONLY NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
WRF AND ADJUSTED POPS TO IT/S QPF SOLUTION THROUGH 00Z. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BASED ON ANYTHING
THAT CAN GET TRIGGERED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE BLACK
HILLS...AS WELL AS LINGERING DYNAMICS. THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT IN
THE SE LOOKED GOOD BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTING STRONG
SHEAR AND THE HIGH CAPE. ALSO LOW-LEVELS WILL BE MOISTER THIS
EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW SITUATION PLAYS OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND CAN ADJUST EVENING POPS LATER BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHEN A
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS
TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WITH SEVERAL 100+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOK POOR WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BEING
TAPPED INTO. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COOLER AIR WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY NEAR STORMS. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 059/090 062/098 065/098 066/097 057/088 058/088
1/B 20/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 12/T
LVM 087 050/089 051/094 059/092 057/087 049/083 050/082
2/T 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 12/T
HDN 090 056/091 056/100 060/100 062/100 055/090 055/090
1/B 20/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 12/T
MLS 086 061/090 064/095 067/101 067/100 060/090 060/091
1/N 21/B 11/U 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
4BQ 087 060/089 064/094 065/097 066/097 058/088 059/089
1/N 21/U 11/U 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
BHK 081 060/084 061/087 063/090 066/093 059/088 058/087
0/N 31/B 11/N 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
SHR 089 055/092 056/097 061/095 062/095 054/087 055/085
2/T 20/U 00/U 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINAL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST 06Z-12Z WHICH IF REALIZED...WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. PROB30 GROUP 06Z-12Z EXISTS IN THE TAF AS A RESULT. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THIS EVENING...WITH
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5000FT AGL POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
812 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS AND DIFFUSE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS
STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED
VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TONIGHT...
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO
SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUNDAY...
A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
IN ERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED PUSH OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT... AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. EXPECT RESIDUAL DAYTIME CONVECTION TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING... LIKELY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS
AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOLDING
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RECOVERING SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE NAM HOLDS
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES NOSING INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ALONG WITH PW VALUES OVER 150% OF NORMAL. WITH THIS
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BASED ON THE MEAN STEERING FLOW FROM THE
WNW... STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST DURING THE NIGHT... AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESSES JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST... WE MAY SEE PERSISTENT SLOW-MOVING OR EVEN BACKBUILDING
ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. AT THE VERY
LEAST... THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IS QUITE HIGH... AND A SHROUD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING FROM
SUCH ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF RALEIGH IN THE EVENING...
DECREASING A BIT AND BECOMING SUPPRESSED IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NC
LATE. WARM LOWS OF 69-73.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN THE
EASTERN STATES... OUR WIND FIELDS IMPROVE WHILE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE
NAM`S DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 KTS... AND
MLCAPE (PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GSO) INCREASES TO 2000-3000
J/KG WITH 30-50 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 100+ KT JET CORE CENTERED OVER MI NOSING TOWARD NC)
MAXIMIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS WILL K-INDEX VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
POTENTIALLY BECOMING ORGANIZED FROM NE TO SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
HEADING TOWARD THE ESE OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RISK
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS... AND MODEL-INDICATED CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER SUGGESTS A RISK OF HAIL AS WELL. GOOD HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH UP HIGHS TO 89-93. LOWS 62 NORTHWEST TO 68
SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT EASES TO THE SSE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM SATURDAY...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH HAD EARLIER BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TO EXPAND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE THE OCCURRENCE OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LOWEST
(LIFR-IFR) AT KFAY AND KRWI WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS MOST
PLENTIFUL -- CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 70
DEGREES -- AND WHERE IT EARLIER RAINED HEAVILY AND SATURATED THE
GROUND AT KFAY. MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE OTHER CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY VFR...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (TO
LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY AT KGSO/KINT/KFAY. -MWS
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY
MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. -SMITH
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS/SMITH
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
901 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK POPS FOR ONGOING
PRECIP TRENDS. WHILE CONDITIONS BECAME FAIRLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME STORMS TO
FIRE THIS EVENING AND THEY HAVE NOW PROGRESSED EAST SO MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STAYING IN THE BJI TO ADA AND
CROOKSTON AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION OFF TO
THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING...AND THINK THAT WITH INSTABILITY ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE LLJ STAYING WELL OFF TO THE
EAST...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY REDEVELOPMENT AND CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONLY
KBJI WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT KDVL...AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST
AND EASTERLY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL A
BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A MAXIMUM IN THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. THESE
STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING
AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO CARRINGTON TO BISMARCK.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND AND BEGINNING TO SEE MORE PRONOUNCED CU
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL NEED
FORCING ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM IS
STILL NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS APPROACHING 50
KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR STILL SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION AND WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS LARGE
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
INCREASE TO BETWEEN +18 AND +22 C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...BUT CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE
PERIOD...COOLING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SAT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND WARM
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY KEEP US DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY FRI FOR
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...BUT EVEN THEN IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AIRMASS GENERALLY STABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF +1 TO +2. IN THE TOLEDO AREA HOWEVER VALUES ARE -1 WITH MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLE
EVENING CONVECTION NORTHWEST WHERE THE RUC SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S SO LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN PAST NIGHTS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND LOWER
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY...DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE SO WILL GO WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NO CHANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL DROP TO THE 50S AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT EAST
HOWEVER AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL HOLD LOWS TO AROUND 60 WEST.
SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BEGIN THE DAY CENTERED OVER PA WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BEING WARMER AIR BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA WITH
WARM FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S NORTHWEST WITH LOW AND MID 80S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT...PUSHED
BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING...MODELS
HAVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES DROPPING SOUTH.
WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORNING SOUTH. MONDAY AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
+6C WITH DEEP MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. CONCERNED THAT SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR OVER THE LAKE TO
ALLOW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS
NORTH SHORE MONDAY AND NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MONDAY FROM NEAR 70 NORTHEAST TO MID 70S
WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS TO SPEED
UP THE CHANGE FROM TROUGH CONDITIONS TO RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY...OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
WE WILL START OUT THE WEEK WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE HEAT
SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA.
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE A THREAT FOR WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE DETAILS CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE BUT
WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE THREAT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS (SCT-
BKN050-070) THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A NICE SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STABLE CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN PATCHY CLOUDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME NW OHIO OR NW PENNSYLVANIA BUT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO FORECAST IT IN THE TAF FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NON VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT FLOW OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE
ERIE ON SATURDAY...THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL MOST LIKELY DOMINATE THE WIND
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE
ERIE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EARLY WEEK PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER BUT DID NOT
CHANGE TEMPS.
PREVIOUS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EAST THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT MOST OF THESE WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH AN EARLY MENTION IN THE EAST. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH UPPER 50S NOT LIKELY IN THE EAST TILL
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW CU DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOW
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY
ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SO WILL
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH THE TROUGHINESS
OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER H850 TEMPS
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR
SOME SHOWERS. ALSO CONTINUED WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST TEMPS
RANGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS (SCT-
BKN050-070) THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A NICE SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STABLE CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN PATCHY CLOUDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME NW OHIO OR NW PENNSYLVANIA BUT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO FORECAST IT IN THE TAF FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NON VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP AND CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
LAKE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER BUT DID NOT
CHANGE TEMPS.
PREVIOUS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EAST THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT MOST OF THESE WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH AN EARLY MENTION IN THE EAST. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH UPPER 50S NOT LIKELY IN THE EAST TILL
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW CU DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOW
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY
ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SO WILL
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH THE TROUGHINESS
OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER H850 TEMPS
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR
SOME SHOWERS. ALSO CONTINUED WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST TEMPS
RANGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SOME LEFTOVER MVFR/POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR AT SITES THIS MORNING
BUT THEN BECOMING ALL VFR BY MIDDAY. SOME SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SITES TO GO SKC THIS EVENING AROUND
SUNSET WITH DISSIPATING CU...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AROUND SUNSET.
EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT TO STILL BE
VFR. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT NW 10KT OR LESS SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD THE WNW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE
ISOLATED NON VFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
SNOWBELT.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP AND CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
LAKE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER BUT DID NOT
CHANGE TEMPS.
PREVIOUS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EAST THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT MOST OF THESE WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH AN EARLY MENTION IN THE EAST. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH UPPER 50S NOT LIKELY IN THE EAST TILL
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW CU DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOW
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY
ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SO WILL
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH THE TROUGHINESS
OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER H850 TEMPS
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR
SOME SHOWERS. ALSO CONTINUED WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST TEMPS
RANGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF ALL SITES BY 08Z WITH MAINLY SHRA STILL
TO POSSIBLY IMPACT CAK YNG AND ERI. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK. APPEARS AS
THOUGH NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR CIGS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
WEST. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM EARLIER
TODAY AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ALTERATIONS OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR TIMING. TO SUPPORT THIS ALSO OBS UPSTREAM OVER MI INDICATING
IFR DEVELOPING THERE AS OF 05Z.
ANY IFR/MVFR WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGESTING SOME VFR SCT-BKN CIG AROUND 050 DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY FOR CLE-MFD EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT ALSO
IN THE FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN SITES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR THOUGH
UNTIL THE VERY END OR AFTER 06Z SAT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE
ISOLATED NON VFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
SNOWBELT.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP AND CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
LAKE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...USHERING IN SOME UNUSUALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE
JUNE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINE LINE ON RADAR SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN
PA...RUNNING FROM KELZ TO KPIT AT 05Z. ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT OVR EASTERN
PA AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA THRU DAWN OVER THE SE
ZONES...WHERE RUC PLACES TONGUE OF HIGHEST PWATS BTWN 06Z-12Z.
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVR LK ERIE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. LATEST MDL SIMULATED RADAR SUGGESTS THESE
SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARDS DAWN.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...TO THE M70S IN THE SE...WHERE
DWPTS REMAIN OVR 70F AND MCLDY SKIES WILL PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS FRIDAY
AND COMBINE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE SE
THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO BRING A QUITE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
FRIDAY.
SVR WX APPEARS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...WHERE FROPA WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRI. SREF DATA
INDICATES THE AREA FROM MDT SEWRD COULD SEE CAPES NEAR
2000J/KG...SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS
MULTI-CELL STORMS AS THE PRIMARY TYPE...ALONG WITH A FEW MINI BOWS
ECHOES WITH ENHANCED/FOCUSED DOWNDRAFTS. SPC HAS THE SE THIRD OF OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS AS IT MOVES
STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS IN
ADVANCE OF FROPA SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED ONE HALF
INCH PLUS RAIN AMTS...WITH MOST PLACES SEEING JUST AROUND 0.25 OF AN
INCH.
AM SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO NR 90F FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF CDFRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD READINGS TO THE U70S ACROSS THE
W MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND
SEASONABLE WX OVER CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS
SAT NIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVR THE STATE.
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...MCLEAR SKY AND A CALM WIND COULD RESULT
IN SOME READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SAT NIGHT.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS NEXT WEEK. A POTENT COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY LIKELY SHRA/TSRA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN BTWN SUN NITE/MONDAY AND KEEP POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY BOTH PERIODS.
A POCKET OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT NEARLY -2 ST DEVIATIONS AT
850 AND 700 MB...APPEARS ON SCHEDULE TO MIGRATE SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW-
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...ESP ACROSS
THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO CLOSED LOW CENTER.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF COOL AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY WX /MAINLY DURING
THE LATER AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS/...MODERATING CONDS LIKELY FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH A WEAKER CAP WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY ALONG THE MASON
DIXON LINE AND THE I-81 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FORMING...AND APPROACH THE NW MTNS AND
KBFD AROUND 15Z...REACH CENTRAL TAFS AROUND MIDDAY...AND IMPACT
KIPT-KMDT-KLNS IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING
SHORT-DURATION RESTRICTIONS TO TAFS. AFTER 22Z EXPECT FRONT TO
CLEAR THE CWA...WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE...ENDING
BY EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL...ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...
MAY BRING FOR LOW STRATOCU AND FOG/MIST LATE FRI NIGHT...EARLY
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCT TSTM IMPACTS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TSTMS WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS.
MON AND TUE...MVFR CIGS POSS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES:
MDT 6/21 98 1923...OBSERVED HIGH 94
IPT 6/21 97 1923/1933...OBSERVED HIGH 94
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.
EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF FORECASTS
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BLACK HILLS REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THIS EVENING. THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING UP AND MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER AND 77
LONG TERM....CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT/
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CU ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR AND NAM
TRY TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OUT OF THIS LATER TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A
CAP AROUND 600 MB. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW....BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS...AS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE CURRENT HIGHS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION INITIATES THIS EVENING AND EXACTLY WHERE IT TRACKS. COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AFTER 0Z NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90..BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY SOLUTION BRINGS THE BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES BY 05Z...THEN TO INTERSTATE
29 BY 07Z...BUT AGAIN THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER STORMS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT GUSTY BEHIND THE CONVECTION IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT/
AS EXPECTED...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED ADVECTIVE FORCING
HAS GENERATED FAIR COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
FROM THESE CLOUDS SOME LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ONLY ABOUT 60-90 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND THUS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN THUNDER FREE. DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE A
GREAT DEAL REACHING THE GROUND. ASSISTANCE FROM WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY
SLIDES NORTHEAST...WITH ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION STARTING TO
WEAKEN A BIT BY MIDDAY. DROPPED DOWN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON TO SUB MENTIONABLE. BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND...WILL HAVE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING DRIVEN HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST
WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES...WITH CLOUDS KEEPING SOME UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHEAST. SIDED TOWARD LOWER END OF DEWPOINTS WITH
MIXING TODAY...AS MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LIKELY THAT MCS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND FOLLOW A
GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. TOUGH CALL
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INTERNALLY WITH LOCATION OF
IMPORTANT FEATURES...BUT VERY INCONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL.
DEVELOPMENT LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL. OBVIOUS THAT THE STRONGEST
700 HPA BOUNDARY WILL END UP NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA AS DEFINED BY
THE CURRENT ACCAS...BUT LOOKING AT FORECAST RAOBS AND WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT...WOULD THINK INITIATION LEVELS
WOULD BE CLOSER TO 800 HPA FOR THE NIGHT. INITIATION IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA OR NORTHERN SIDE OF BLACK HILLS...WOULD TAKE THIS
COMPLEX EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD I90 AREA OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA. GAVE MOST POPS A LITTLE MORE OF A BOOST
TONIGHT. OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
STILL HAVE SOME DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTHWEST ALOFT...AND ABOUT
600-900 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO GET
EITHER A SPOTTY DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL THREAT FROM K9V9 TO KYKN
CORRIDOR IN THE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AS VEERS TO DEFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. FAIRLY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTS A
DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THREAT...AND WITH HOW MUCH HEIGHTS BUILD AND
MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM BEHIND...HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. MAX TEMPS
WILL LARGELY BE IMPACTED IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ON SATURDAY...AND
COULD VERY WELL HAVE A 15-20F GRADIENT IN CWA...DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONGLY THE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING TOWARD
MINNESOTA. WEALTH OF EASTERLY FLOW...AND WHILE MAY BE DEALING WITH
SOME STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY...MIXING
WOULD STILL HAVE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A STRONGER TIMING CONSENSUS FOR A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
HAVE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM
12 TO 16C...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT AS DIV Q WANDERS PAST TO GENERATE A
LOW RISK FOR A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. DEBRIS FROM THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...AS LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO WORK FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST. PATTERN RECOGNITION...
AWAY FROM THAT SUGGESTED BY A MUCH TOO FORCEFUL GFS WITH TROUGHING
KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE MIDWEEK... WOULD SUGGEST BY WEDNESDAY THAT
EXTREME WARMTH FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS WOULD START TO NUDGE EASTWARD.
A GOODLY SUBSET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD MIX TO AT LEAST 100 FOR SOME
WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...FOR NOW WILL
PUSH TEMPS A GOOD 3-5 ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE WEST...AND WAIT FOR A
STRONGER CONSENSUS TO GO FURTHER. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT/
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CU ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR AND NAM
TRY TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OUT OF THIS LATER TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A
CAP AROUND 600 MB. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW....BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS...AS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE CURRENT HIGHS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR 06Z TAFS/
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 4Z. AFTER THIS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. /08
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT/
AS EXPECTED...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED ADVECTIVE FORCING
HAS GENERATED FAIR COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
FROM THESE CLOUDS SOME LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ONLY ABOUT 60-90 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND THUS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN THUNDER FREE. DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE A
GREAT DEAL REACHING THE GROUND. ASSISTANCE FROM WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY
SLIDES NORTHEAST...WITH ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION STARTING TO
WEAKEN A BIT BY MIDDAY. DROPPED DOWN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON TO SUB MENTIONABLE. BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND...WILL HAVE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING DRIVEN HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST
WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES...WITH CLOUDS KEEPING SOME UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHEAST. SIDED TOWARD LOWER END OF DEWPOINTS WITH
MIXING TODAY...AS MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LIKELY THAT MCS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND FOLLOW A
GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. TOUGH CALL
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INTERNALLY WITH LOCATION OF
IMPORTANT FEATURES...BUT VERY INCONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL.
DEVELOPMENT LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL. OBVIOUS THAT THE STRONGEST
700 HPA BOUNDARY WILL END UP NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA AS DEFINED BY
THE CURRENT ACCAS...BUT LOOKING AT FORECAST RAOBS AND WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT...WOULD THINK INITIATION LEVELS
WOULD BE CLOSER TO 800 HPA FOR THE NIGHT. INITIATION IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA OR NORTHERN SIDE OF BLACK HILLS...WOULD TAKE THIS
COMPLEX EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD I90 AREA OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA. GAVE MOST POPS A LITTLE MORE OF A BOOST
TONIGHT. OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
STILL HAVE SOME DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTHWEST ALOFT...AND ABOUT
600-900 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO GET
EITHER A SPOTTY DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL THREAT FROM K9V9 TO KYKN
CORRIDOR IN THE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AS VEERS TO DEFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. FAIRLY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTS A
DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THREAT...AND WITH HOW MUCH HEIGHTS BUILD AND
MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM BEHIND...HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. MAX TEMPS
WILL LARGELY BE IMPACTED IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ON SATURDAY...AND
COULD VERY WELL HAVE A 15-20F GRADIENT IN CWA...DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONGLY THE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING TOWARD
MINNESOTA. WEALTH OF EASTERLY FLOW...AND WHILE MAY BE DEALING WITH
SOME STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY...MIXING
WOULD STILL HAVE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A STRONGER TIMING CONSENSUS FOR A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
HAVE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM
12 TO 16C...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT AS DIV Q WANDERS PAST TO GENERATE A
LOW RISK FOR A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. DEBRIS FROM THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...AS LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO WORK FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST. PATTERN RECOGNITION...
AWAY FROM THAT SUGGESTED BY A MUCH TOO FORCEFUL GFS WITH TROUGHING
KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE MIDWEEK... WOULD SUGGEST BY WEDNESDAY THAT
EXTREME WARMTH FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS WOULD START TO NUDGE EASTWARD.
A GOODLY SUBSET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD MIX TO AT LEAST 100 FOR SOME
WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...FOR NOW WILL
PUSH TEMPS A GOOD 3-5 ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE WEST...AND WAIT FOR A
STRONGER CONSENSUS TO GO FURTHER. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ENTERING NW TN. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PLATEAU WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOULD BE THE ONLY PRECIP THROUGH 12Z IN MIDDLE TN. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SHRA MENTION AT CSV THROUGH ROUGHLY 07-08Z BEFORE
CONVECTION WANES. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO CSV PRIOR TO
12Z DUE TO BR AND PERHAPS A FEW LOWER CLOUDS/BRIEF CIGS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL AND WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MIDDAY
AND LATER. BY THEN THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF
CKV AND BNA. WILL HOLD ONTO VCSH WITH THE FRONT AT CKV TOWARDS
DAWN AND AROUND MID-MORNING AT BNA BUT REALLY DO NOT THINK ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL POP UP UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS CLOSER TO CSV.
HAVE CB/TSRA WORDING IN THERE ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS. WITH
ANY SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER THE MRX CWA. COLD FRONT WELL DEPICTED BY PAH AND LMK RADAR
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BORDER. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND TOWARDS SUNRISE PER GFS/NAM TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS...AND LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH NO PRECIP
DEPICTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL LEAVE IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS UNFORTUNATELY WILL REMAIN DRY. ALSO
ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY PER 18Z/00Z MOS GUIDANCE AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MIDDLE TN...LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE AR/TN BORDER. THE FRONT IS FAIRLY MOISTURE-
STARVED...SO ANY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PLATEAU AFFECTING ONLY CSV OR WELL
WEST OF MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER
04Z...WHERE VSBYS AT CSV SHOULD DROP FROM HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS THERE TOWARDS DAWN.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT IS POST-
FRONTAL...AND WITH THE FRONT NEARING CKV JUST AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...THINK ANY PRECIP ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT AFFECTING BNA AND CSV ONLY. MAY INCLUDE A VCSH
MENTION AT THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL TAILOR BACK THE TS/CB MENTION IN
AT CKV AROUND 12Z JUST TO A VCSH IN CASE FRONTAL PRECIP LASTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 23/18Z. MODERATE CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP AT
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
ALBEIT SHALLOW...RICH MOISTURE ON LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAS
LED TO VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO NARROW A FEW
DEGREES FURTHER...WOULD EXPECT THIS LAYER TO EXPAND W-SWWD THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND RAP MAINLY
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WHERE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS SUCH
OCCURRENCES IN THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AHEAD CAN BE GLEANED BY RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH PAINTS A QUIET AND DRY PICTURE. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE THAT
HELPED SUPPORT YESTERDAY`S SCATTERED STORMS HAS SINCE SHIFTED
SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS
PART OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER ANTICYCLONE EDGING CLOSER FROM WRN NEW
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH PROGGED CIN VALUES ARE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THIS TIME ALONG WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPS ON SWLY WINDS SPELLS TOO
SMALL A CHANCE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...SO POPS REMAIN SILENT.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREDOMINANTLY S-SELY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED THIS WEEKEND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION AND BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDE INTO KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPOUNDING HOW WARM IT WILL
FEEL. CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL JUST A TAD SO IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK AND 100 TO 105 OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERATE SOME FORM OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLIDE IT WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. CURRENT TRACKS KEEP ANY INFLUENCES ON THE WEATHER AND MAY
EVEN BRING SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 98 64 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 66 96 65 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 67 97 63 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 68 97 66 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 97 68 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 67 97 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 68 97 68 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 71 99 70 101 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 70 97 68 101 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 100 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
547 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
AS OF 1030Z...IFR STRATUS AT CDS WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW HERE SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS INTACT UNTIL AN HOUR
OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. THREAT OF THESE CIGS EXPANDING CLOSER TO LBB
IS OF CONCERN AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE
OF STRATUS IS ABOUT 35NE LBB. ALREADY NOTING FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
500 FEET WITHIN SIGHT OF LBB...SO FEEL A SHORT WINDOW OF TEMPO
IFR CIGS UNTIL 14Z IS IN ORDER. VFR CONDS TO RETURN RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AOB 11 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
ALBEIT SHALLOW...RICH MOISTURE ON LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAS
LED TO VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO NARROW A FEW
DEGREES FURTHER...WOULD EXPECT THIS LAYER TO EXPAND W-SWWD THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND RAP MAINLY
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WHERE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS SUCH
OCCURRENCES IN THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AHEAD CAN BE GLEANED BY RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH PAINTS A QUIET AND DRY PICTURE. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE THAT
HELPED SUPPORT YESTERDAY`S SCATTERED STORMS HAS SINCE SHIFTED
SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS
PART OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER ANTICYCLONE EDGING CLOSER FROM WRN NEW
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH PROGGED CIN VALUES ARE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THIS TIME ALONG WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPS ON SWLY WINDS SPELLS TOO
SMALL A CHANCE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...SO POPS REMAIN SILENT.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREDOMINANTLY S-SELY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED THIS WEEKEND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION AND BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDE INTO KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPOUNDING HOW WARM IT WILL
FEEL. CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL JUST A TAD SO IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK AND 100 TO 105 OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERATE SOME FORM OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLIDE IT WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. CURRENT TRACKS KEEP ANY INFLUENCES ON THE WEATHER AND MAY
EVEN BRING SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 98 64 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 90 66 96 65 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 67 97 63 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 94 68 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 69 97 68 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 93 67 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 68 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 71 99 70 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 92 70 97 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 72 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
424 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ALBEIT SHALLOW...RICH MOISTURE ON LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAS
LED TO VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO NARROW A FEW
DEGREES FURTHER...WOULD EXPECT THIS LAYER TO EXPAND W-SWWD THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND RAP MAINLY
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WHERE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS SUCH
OCCURRENCES IN THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AHEAD CAN BE GLEANED BY RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH PAINTS A QUIET AND DRY PICTURE. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE THAT
HELPED SUPPORT YESTERDAY`S SCATTERED STORMS HAS SINCE SHIFTED
SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS
PART OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER ANTICYCLONE EDGING CLOSER FROM WRN NEW
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH PROGGED CIN VALUES ARE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THIS TIME ALONG WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPS ON SWLY WINDS SPELLS TOO
SMALL A CHANCE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...SO POPS REMAIN SILENT.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREDOMINANTLY S-SELY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM...
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED THIS WEEKEND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION AND BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDE INTO KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPOUNDING HOW WARM IT WILL
FEEL. CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL JUST A TAD SO IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK AND 100 TO 105 OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERATE SOME FORM OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLIDE IT WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. CURRENT TRACKS KEEP ANY INFLUENCES ON THE WEATHER AND MAY
EVEN BRING SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 98 64 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 90 66 96 65 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 67 97 63 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 94 68 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 69 97 68 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 93 67 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 68 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 71 99 70 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 92 70 97 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 72 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
441 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies again today and tonight. Some of the
thunderstorms could be strong and capable of producing heavy rain
and gusty winds. Showers should be more scattered on Sunday and
Monday, and mainly limited to the mountainous areas of the Inland
Northwest. There is a good chance that Tuesday will be cool, rainy
and breezy as a vigorous low pressure system moves through the
region. A warming and drying trend is likely Wednesday through
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: Another active evening in store. Large low
pressure system continues to send short waves through our area
with moist southerly flow. One wave fired severe convection this
morning over northeast WA. That convection died off but more is
just starting to develop. SPC has this area in a slight risk for
this evening. HRRR suggests that this convection will move
north/east of our area in the next few hours. Meanwhile another
short wave has created a line of convection that has moved into
south- central WA. PDT has already warned on the storm near Walla
Walla. HRRR predicts this storm to move onto the Palouse for the
next couple of hours.
Behind this there is still additional showers/storms over central
OR that will move into our area tonight. While we will be lacking
the daytime heating the continued support from aloft means that
this activity probably won`t just shut off with sunset.
Shower activity on Monday should be confined to the northern
Mountains. Thunderstorms are still a possibility but the strongest
storms should be well to our north and east. RJ
Sunday night through Monday: Deep upper level pressure system will
continue to spin off the Northwest coastline. An upper level wave
rotating around the low on Sunday will head north of the region
as some short wave ridging of higher pressure moves into the
region. This will result in much of the region drying out and
warming up a bit for Monday. We will remain very unstable with
CAPEs across eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle 400-800
J/KG. However, this instability will come with around 20-80 J/KG of
convective inhibition (CIN). Models do not show any waves of energy
moving across the region on Monday afternoon with the short wave
ridging, thus I do not think we will be able to realize this
convective energy. The mountains will have the best shot at some
showers. The Panhandle mountains will have the easiest time to
break the cap with around 20 J/KG of CIN. We may see a
thunderstorm or two across these mountains, thus I left a slight
chance of thunderstorms here.
Monday night into Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system
offshore will finally push into the region as it moves off to the
northeast through Oregon and finally into British Columbia/Alberta
by Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate a moist and very
dynamic system as the low passes through the region. We will see
an increasing chance for showers late Monday night with the bulk
of the rainfall moving through during the day on Tuesday.
Considering the good agreement between models and the high
precipitation amounts being produced, I bumped up POPs and QPF
values significantly. The Okanogan Highlands over to the northern
Panhandle will likely pick up to around 0.50 to 1.0 inch Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Some instability accompanying the low pressure
passage may result in some thunderstorms across the eastern two-
thirds of the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will be much colder
with this system. /SVH
Tuesday night through Saturday: Closed low will continue to exit
the region as a ridge builds across the intermountain west.
Tuesday night residual showers are possible, mainly along the
US/Canadian border. After that, we dry out and start to warm
up. There is some model discrepancy about what to do Friday and
the weekend. The previous four runs of the ECMWF showed a
negatively tilted trough moving across the area starting Friday
afternoon. However, the latest run holds the ridge strong, and is
more like the GFS. Kept some mountain showers across the north
and cascades through Saturday given the uncertainty at this time.
Temperatures Wednesday will start to increase, but still be
several degrees below average. Then Thursday through Saturday we
will see temperatures at least average, with Friday being the
warmest day with temps about 5 degrees above average for this time
of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
into and across the inland northwest through this evening.
Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with these showers and
thunderstorms. Abundant clouds tonight should prevent the formation
of widespread fog or stratus but localized MVFR cig/vis is possible.
The threat of thunder will decrease after midnight, and
be confined to mainly Idaho.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 76 53 81 54 62 / 60 30 10 10 30 80
Coeur d`Alene 56 76 53 82 53 61 / 70 40 10 10 30 80
Pullman 53 74 51 79 51 64 / 60 10 10 10 40 80
Lewiston 59 84 58 86 59 72 / 40 10 10 10 40 70
Colville 53 76 51 85 53 61 / 70 60 10 10 30 90
Sandpoint 55 75 49 80 51 57 / 80 60 10 20 20 90
Kellogg 53 76 53 82 52 57 / 70 30 10 20 40 90
Moses Lake 54 81 52 84 56 71 / 20 20 0 10 40 50
Wenatchee 54 78 54 81 56 68 / 30 20 0 0 40 40
Omak 52 78 50 84 54 68 / 50 60 10 10 30 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
225 PM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle this evening
may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy rain. More
thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as low pressure
lingers over the region. This system will finally move out of the
Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier and more stable
weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Clearing over eastern WA and the Panhandle is allowing
temperatures to finally warm into the 80s. Coupled with the upper
40s to lower 50s dew points, the atmosphere should destabilize
rather nicely. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late this
afteroon. Convection has started to fire in the Clearwater Mtns,
similar to the HRRR forecast. Based on this I have a bit more
confidence in the HRRR, and so we`re looking at three potential
areas of convection.
The first is over the Clearwaters which should continue to fire
and propagate northward through the ID Panhandle this evening. The
second is forecast on the back end of the clouds moving into the
Okanogan Highlands. The convection would move northwest into the
north Cascades. The third area of convection would be over
northeast OR ahead of the main cloud band moving into the area
this evening. This convection would track along the ID/WA border
area this evening.
CAPE values are certainly supportive of moderate-sized hail. 0-6km
shear is good, but not great. Enough to keep the storms from being
pulse in nature but not sure there`s enough to make supercells.
Heavy rain is still possible in the Cascades. But since the storms
should be moving at a decent speed and this area hasn`t had a lot
of rain recently I`m thinking that the flash flood threat is
minimal. RJ
Saturday through Monday: Closed low will remain off the Oregon
coast through Monday. Models are in good agreement of pieces of
energy ejecting from the low and moving through the forecast area.
This will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. Saturday is the best day for more widespread showers
across the region. Instability parameters such as CAPE, LI and 0-6
km shear show very favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development Saturday. The best area of instability will stretch
up the Idaho Panhandle from Shoshone county north to the Canadian
border and bending back toward the northeast mountains of WA. Kept
the likely thunderstorm wording for the afternoon for these
locations and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Elsewhere,
slight chance exists across the basin, with a chance of thunder
along the Cascades and Spokane/Palouse, Okanogan areas. Sunday and
Monday there is still a threat of showers, but there is less
moisture to work with and the axis of instability is further east.
The best area of showers and thunderstorms will be across
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. With less moisture there is
also the possibility of less cloud cover, and with less cloud
cover, we could actually warm to near or slightly above average
temperatures. /Nisbet
Monday night through Friday: The persistent upper-low currently
off the WA coast will lift to the northeast through the region
bringing one last round of heavier precipitation before relatively
drier conditions settle in. Models are in decent agreement that
the low will lift E/NE through the area but still illustrate
subtle differences on timing, strength, and how much of its energy
pinches off and lingers over the region on Wed...yet they have come
into much better agreement then runs 24 hours ago. Following the
passage of the low pressure system, the general consensus amongst
the models is to strengthen a ridge of high pressure over the Pac
NW yielding mostly dry conditions for most locations. I use mostly
dry wording due to each model depicting several very small
midlevel impulses drifting under the ridge which could lead to
localized areas of deeper instability and chance for afternoon
showers/thunderstorms. We have utilized a blend of the EC/GFS for
the Monday night/Tuesday period and trend toward their ensemble
means thereafter.
This resulted in Monday night and Tuesday being the wettest days
of the period with models showing upwards of a quarter to three
quarters of an inch (heavier in thunderstorms) possible through
Tuesday night. The slower and more negatively tilted EC spreads
precipitation across all locations in this period while the quicker
GFS focuses more on the eastern third of WA and ID Panhandle...in
response to developing westerly flow in the lee of the Cascades.
The precipitation threat shifts toward the Canadian border for
Tuesday night and potentially into Wednesday afternoon (per slower
EC). By Wednesday night through Friday, upper-level ridging will
be the more dominate weather feature leading to a warming and
drying trend at most locations. As mentioned above, we will likely
be monitoring a few midlevel small-scale circulations each capable
of a introducing a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Given how
far out these events are and lack of QPF in the models, the
forecast indicates dry conditions based on the large scale
subsidence under the ridge but could may need to be adjusted over
small areas when and where these circulations track.
Temperatures will be cooling below normal on Wednesday with
abundant cloud cover and rainfall then begin a slow warming trend
each day returning near to above normal by Friday. SB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Watching the showers and thunderstorms developing over
central Oregon at 2330z and these are expected over the region
around 01z in the south and 04z to the north. Effects at the
terminals should be limited to rain, lightning and gusty winds, with
stronger winds and hail to the east over the Idaho Panhandle
mountains. These showers will gradually move northward out of the
area late tonight. Redevelopment is forecast for Saturday afternoon,
with showers and isolated thunderstorms over extreme eastern
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. JL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 74 53 75 50 79 / 90 70 60 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 57 73 53 76 50 80 / 90 80 70 20 10 10
Pullman 53 71 49 75 49 77 / 80 70 60 10 10 10
Lewiston 61 80 55 83 54 83 / 70 60 40 10 10 10
Colville 58 76 52 78 49 85 / 90 80 70 40 10 10
Sandpoint 55 73 52 73 48 79 / 90 90 80 40 20 20
Kellogg 54 71 50 77 48 79 / 90 80 70 40 20 20
Moses Lake 58 79 53 80 53 82 / 70 50 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 59 74 51 77 52 79 / 70 60 30 10 0 10
Omak 59 76 50 78 48 83 / 90 70 50 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1124 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
New HRRR model is now showing a fairly believable scenario.
Clearing skies are still moving northward and most of extreme
eastern WA and the Panhandle should be partly/mostly sunny by late
afternoon. This will allow atmosphere to destabilize. Meanwhile
the next cloud band is approaching from southwest Oregon, and this
could inhibit convection over the northeast Oregon Mtns. But the
Clearwater mountains should be clear long enough to initiate
convection late this afternoon.
As the dynamic lift from the offshore low rotates into our area late
this afternoon and evening this should help to initiate convection
over northeast OR and the northern Panhandle, similar to the latest
HRRR solution. This would start after 5pm and maybe even later.
This could be problematic for severe storms since we will be cooling
by then.
HRRR also shows convection this afternoon over Okanogan county.
Clearing over southeast WA is pushing northwestward and could allow
for convection in this area as well.
Will update forecast to reflect all of this for the next 18 hours. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
and evening at most locations. These should gradually move
northward out of the area late tonight. Some storms could be strong
in the Panhandle and northeast Washington this evening. There will
be some IFR and Mtn obscuration conditions with these storms. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 10 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 10 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 10 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 20 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 20 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 20 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 30 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 10 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 20 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 30 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
848 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast this morning to remove the mention of thunder
east of Moses Lake until later this afternoon. Plenty of mid/high
clouds with virga moving through the region. Some rain is reaching
the ground in the Cascades and western Basin with a few lightning
strikes there.
Forecast gets really tricky this afternoon. The extensive cloud
sheild is going to hold temperatures down this morning. But we`re
starting off fairly warm (due to the overnight cloud cover).
Clearing is moving up from northeast Oregon into southeast
Washington at the moment. This should result in a partly sunny
afternoon for most of the area east of Moses Lake. This coupled
with the near 50s dew points should allow the atmosphere to
destabilize. NAM and HRRR show CAPEs in excess of 1000 J/kg from
Republic over to the Panhandle and down into the Clearwater
mountains. But the models don`t show much convective initiation.
The GFS has absolutely nothing for instability, except over the
Blue Mtns.
All models show good dynamic lift with the short waves rotating
aroud the offshore low. So there doesn`t appear to be any strong
subsidence to hold down the convection. I`ll continue to monitor
the HRRR updates to see if it latches on to any changes. But at
this point my best guess would be to see convection fire over
northeast Oregon and the Clearwaters (since they will have the most
sunshine to destabilize). The southerly flow would steer the
storms northward into the northern Panhandle and extreme eastern WA.
The other item of concern is the potential for heavy rain in the
Cascades. New 12Z GFS is just starting to come in and it continues
the idea of previous runs. Unstable southeasterly flow with good
moisture (235% of normal Precipitable Water) usually spells heavy
rain there. Some locations could see up to an inch of water. The
speed of the storms should be fast enough to prevent flash
flooding but training of storms is possible. I am considering some
sort of hydrologic warning or advisory for this. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Thunderstorms are the main aviation concern today.
Southerly flow ahead of a deep closed low off the coast will usher
in mid level moisture and instability. Isolated thunderstorms
expected this morning will give way to an increase in showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and especially in the evening. Strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds and moderate hail are possible over
the Idaho Panhandle between 21z Friday - 06z Saturday where
instability is greatest. Following the showers and thunderstorms
Friday evening low level upslope winds at KGEG/KSFF/KPUW and a moist
boundary layer it is possible a MVFR stratus deck could develop. Low
confidence that this will occur with the NAM most excited about
this. For now only used a SCT020-025 cloud group. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 50 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 50 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 50 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 50 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 50 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 50 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 60 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 60 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
440 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A deep closed low off the Washington
coast this morning will slowly drop southeast towards the Oregon
coast through Saturday. Southerly flow will draw in increased
moisture and instability with a good thunderstorm pattern shaping
up for the Inland Northwest. For this morning a couple of waves
noted on water vapor will move up into the Inland Northwest. One
will pass through North Central Washington with the second one
moving into Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Elevated moisture
and instability will pass through with stability parameters
indicating a marginal thunder threat. HRRR is also not as excited
about convection showing mainly elevated showers passing through
during the morning. Still can not rule out a thunderstorm for most
locations of the Inland Northwest this morning. For this afternoon
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as both mid level
instability and surface based instability increases. Surface
convection looks to be capped over most of the area today although
late in the afternoon the cap may dissipate over the northern
mountains and Idaho Panhandle. If it does so thunderstorms could
become strong where GFS and NAM indicate an axis of maximum
instability under a theta e ridge axis. The NAM is especially
unstable with CAPES as high as 1000-1500 J/KG. Wind shear values
are highest over the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mountains
with 0-6km values 40-50 knots. This is where the best chance of an
isolated severe thunderstorm occurring exists with large hail and
gusty winds. For the Cascades the southeast flow will favor
potential for heavy rain with thunderstorms that occur.
For tonight a stronger wave moving towards the coast this morning
will cross the Cascades in the evening. This will bring an
increase in showers and thunderstorms this evening especially over
the Idaho Panhandle where strong thunderstorms are a good
possibility with isolated severe storms not out of the question.
This wave lifts north into Canada overnight and should see a
decrease in shower/thunderstorm activity overnight. However an
axis of elevated instability arcs from Pullman to Spokane to Omak
and areas eastward with nocturnal thunderstorms expected.
On Saturday yet another strong wave rounds the closed low. GFS and
NAM indicate an axis of highest instability again from the Idaho
Panhandle and Northeast Washington Mountains. Amount of
instability differs with GFS showing CAPES as high as 2000 J/KG
with mid 60 dewpoints and the NAM around 1000 J/KG with NAM
dewpoints in the upper 50s. NAM seems more realistic but even this
amount of CAPE with 0-6km shear values of 60 knots could result in
isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail. Elsewhere
negative theta e lapse rates and surface based instability being
uncapped will lead to isolated thunderstorms.
Rain associated with showers and thunderstorms will lead to rises
on some rivers and streams especially in the Cascades where snow
melt continues to also be a factor. No flooding is expected at
this time but this can not be ruled out. JW
Sunday and Monday: Sunday and Monday have a good chance of being
quieter weather days than Friday and Saturday. Despite little
movement of the upper low off the Oregon coast, there is good
agreement between the 00z runs of the NAM, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
that drier/more stable air will spread over the Inland Northwest.
This statement doesn`t seem to make a lot of sense given the
persistence of deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest.
However, the tap of subtropical moisture being fed into our region
will likely be interrupted Sunday and Monday. The AMSU satellite
imagery over the eastern Pacific as of 2 AM Friday morning shows
an expansive plume of 1 inch to 1.4 inches of precipitable water
streaming into northern California and Oregon. By Sunday, this tap
of deep atmospheric moisture will be pinched off and the resulting
southerly flow over the Pacific Moisture will be much drier. There
may still be sufficient low/mid level moisture for widely
scattered convection, but showers will not be as widespread as on
Friday and Saturday. The result should be afternoon temperatures
at or above average Sunday and Monday and at least some periods of
sunshine.
Tuesday: The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models and ensembles have trended
toward good agreement for Tuesday. The upper low off the Oregon
coast will likely lift northeast and track across the Inland
Northwest on Tuesday. The entire Pacific Northwest will have a
chance of precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday with this
system. The trajectory of this system and the axis of best
instability suggests that northeast Washington and north Idaho
will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday should be a dry day for the majority of the region in
the wake of Tuesday`s frontal passage. /GKoch
Thursday through Saturday...A upper level low is expected to be
over the Northern Pacific and will bring a shortwave trough into
the area late Friday. Models are in poor agreement over moisture
associated with this trough. Pops and Sky Cover increase in the
later period as the trough approaches and increases moisture in
the region. Rain is expected in the northern portion of the region
late Friday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Thunderstorms are the main aviation concern today.
Southerly flow ahead of a deep closed low off the coast will usher
in mid level moisture and instability. Isolated thunderstorms
expected this morning will give way to an increase in showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and especially in the evening. Strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds and moderate hail are possible over
the Idaho Panhandle between 21z Friday - 06z Saturday where
instability is greatest. Following the showers and thunderstorms
Friday evening low level upslope winds at KGEG/KSFF/KPUW and a moist
boundary layer it is possible a MVFR stratus deck could develop. Low
confidence that this will occur with the NAM most excited about
this. For now only used a SCT020-025 cloud group. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 50 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 50 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 50 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 50 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 50 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 50 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 60 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 60 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
304 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A deep closed low off the Washington
coast this morning will slowly drop southeast towards the Oregon
coast through Saturday. Southerly flow will draw in increased
moisture and instability with a good thunderstorm pattern shaping
up for the Inland Northwest. For this morning a couple of waves
noted on water vapor will move up into the Inland Northwest. One
will pass through North Central Washington with the second one
moving into Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Elevated moisture
and instability will pass through with stability parameters
indicating a marginal thunder threat. HRRR is also not as excited
about convection showing mainly elevated showers passing through
during the morning. Still can not rule out a thunderstorm for most
locations of the Inland Northwest this morning. For this afternoon
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as both mid level
instability and surface based instability increases. Surface
convection looks to be capped over most of the area today although
late in the afternoon the cap may dissipate over the northern
mountains and Idaho Panhandle. If it does so thunderstorms could
become strong where GFS and NAM indicate an axis of maximum
instability under a theta e ridge axis. The NAM is especially
unstable with CAPES as high as 1000-1500 J/KG. Wind shear values
are highest over the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mountains
with 0-6km values 40-50 knots. This is where the best chance of an
isolated severe thunderstorm occurring exists with large hail and
gusty winds. For the Cascades the southeast flow will favor
potential for heavy rain with thunderstorms that occur.
For tonight a stronger wave moving towards the coast this morning
will cross the Cascades in the evening. This will bring an
increase in showers and thunderstorms this evening especially over
the Idaho Panhandle where strong thunderstorms are a good
possibility with isolated severe storms not out of the question.
This wave lifts north into Canada overnight and should see a
decrease in shower/thunderstorm activity overnight. However an
axis of elevated instability arcs from Pullman to Spokane to Omak
and areas eastward with nocturnal thunderstorms expected.
On Saturday yet another strong wave rounds the closed low. GFS and
NAM indicate an axis of highest instability again from the Idaho
Panhandle and Northeast Washington Mountains. Amount of
instability differs with GFS showing CAPES as high as 2000 J/KG
with mid 60 dewpoints and the NAM around 1000 J/KG with NAM
dewpoints in the upper 50s. NAM seems more realistic but even this
amount of CAPE with 0-6km shear values of 60 knots could result in
isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail. Elsewhere
negative theta e lapse rates and surface based instability being
uncapped will lead to isolated thunderstorms.
Rain associated with showers and thunderstorms will lead to rises
on some rivers and streams especially in the Cascades where snow
melt continues to also be a factor. No flooding is expected at
this time but this can not be ruled out. JW
Sunday and Monday: Sunday and Monday have a good chance of being
quieter weather days than Friday and Saturday. Despite little
movement of the upper low off the Oregon coast, there is good
agreement between the 00z runs of the NAM, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
that drier/more stable air will spread over the Inland Northwest.
This statement doesn`t seem to make a lot of sense given the
persistence of deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest.
However, the tap of subtropical moisture being fed into our region
will likely be interrupted Sunday and Monday. The AMSU satellite
imagery over the eastern Pacific as of 2 AM Friday morning shows
an expansive plume of 1 inch to 1.4 inches of precipitable water
streaming into northern California and Oregon. By Sunday, this tap
of deep atmospheric moisture will be pinched off and the resulting
southerly flow over the Pacific Moisture will be much drier. There
may still be sufficient low/mid level moisture for widely
scattered convection, but showers will not be as widespread as on
Friday and Saturday. The result should be afternoon temperatures
at or above average Sunday and Monday and at least some periods of
sunshine.
Tuesday: The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models and ensembles have trended
toward good agreement for Tuesday. The upper low off the Oregon
coast will likely lift northeast and track across the Inland
Northwest on Tuesday. The entire Pacific Northwest will have a
chance of precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday with this
system. The trajectory of this system and the axis of best
instability suggests that northeast Washington and north Idaho
will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday should be a dry day for the majority of the region in
the wake of Tuesday`s frontal passage. /GKoch
Thursday through Saturday...A upper level low is expected to be
over the Northern Pacific and will bring a shortwave trough into
the area late Friday. Models are in poor agreement over moisture
associated with this trough. Pops and Sky Cover increase in the
later period as the trough approaches and increases moisture in
the region. Rain is expected in the northern portion of the region
late Friday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were crossing
into south central Washington at 0530Z and they will move through
the basin by 10z. KGEG may be on the eastern edge of this activity.
Latest guidance suggest main threat with stronger thunderstorms
Friday afternoon will be from the Lewiston area east of KCOE and
into the Northern Panhandle and the Northeast Mountains of
Washington. Some of these storms could produce strong winds and
moderate sized hail. This activity should move through quickly
with things settling down after 03z. JL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 50 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 50 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 50 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 50 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 50 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 50 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 60 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 60 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
939 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
939 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
02Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THE TAIL END OF THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH AN 800-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SEEN ON PROFILER AND VWP DATA...ALONG WITH
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FARTHER
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA...SUPPORTED BY A 25-30KT 850MB JET AND INSTABILITY
BEING FRONTOGENETICALLY LIFTED OUT OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
(ESTIMATED BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER RAP ANALYSIS). OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN STAYING DRY BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT MIGHT BE KEEPING OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY IS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE PRESENT OVER THE CHICAGO
AREA. IN FACT...SKIES HAVE NEARLY CLEARED OUT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER PER LATEST IR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
SORTA CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION GOING ON THERE.
QUESTION NOW OVERNIGHT IS WILL CONVECTION OCCUR...ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. 24.01Z AND QUITE A FEW PREVIOUS RAP RUNS HAVE KEPT
THE BEST 925MB THROUGH 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN IOWA. PERHAPS LATE IN THE NIGHT THE 925MB
GETS FOCUSED BACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS NORTHEAST IOWA...IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA.
THUS...THINK AT LEAST FOR CONVECTION PRODUCED FROM WARM
ADVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THAT TO OCCUR...IF AT ALL. LATEST 24.00Z NAM WOULD CONCUR WITH
THIS ASSESSMENT TOO. PLUS...INSTABILITY RIGHT NOW IS FAR AWAY AS
NOTED EARLIER. TO THE NORTH...AREA OF MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO. IT
IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THESE APPROACH TAYLOR AND CLARK
COUNTIES...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...FOR THE FORECAST CHANCES...REMOVED MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WHERE 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DESCRIBED EARLIER. CLOUD COVER IS REALLY
TRICKY TONIGHT TOO. THE CLEARING OCCURRING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COULD EASILY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDED BY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. TRIED TO INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST...WITH CLOUDS COMING
BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FROM
THE NORTH FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUNDAY MORNING FORECAST...GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS
WITH THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED-THU...WITH APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL WARMING
RESULTING. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 24 TO 27 C VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF.
ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 2.5. LOOKS TO BE A RATHER HOT COUPLE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY LAYS UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN CHANCES FRI-SAT. ALSO...MORE
SEASONABLE AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.
EXITING SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS LED TO SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINED WITH A RIGHT
EXIT REGION OVER AREA...CLEARING TREND ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS
QUICKLY MAKING A PUSH EAST. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THIS TO KLSE
AROUND 01Z...THOUGH BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IN
SOUTHERN IOWA MAY PREVENT ANY SCATTERED CEILINGS.
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALIGNMENT TURNS NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND CENTERED ON TAF SITES...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE / RAP AND NAM /
IS RATHER MEAGER AND IS QUICKLY SHUNTED TO THE EAST BY 08Z. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO LOW PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION FIRING UP
ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH
WOULD BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
06Z...AS PER SOME OF THE MESO-MODEL GUIDANCE /HRRR/. NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THIS WOULD PERSIST TO KRST/KLSE...SO AT THIS TIME LEFT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z FROM THE NORTH...AND
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE LIKELY WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING PCPN MOVING ACROSS IA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THUS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SFC WARM FRONT LOOKS
TO RUN WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN ILL. THE LOW
LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOSE INTO AND ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...WITH ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THROUGH NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI. GOOD 925-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THIS SAME
REGION. UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE TONIGHT WITH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATING ABOUT 40-50 KTS OF 2-7 KM SHEAR. SFC INVERSION
DEVELOPS...BUT WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE FRONTOGENETIC
REGION WOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ABOVE IT.
INTERESTING QPF FIELDS VIA THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS THOUGH ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THE ARW/HRRR/SPCWRF SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP...BUT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA. THE 23.12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. IN MOST CASES THE PCPN IS FAIRLY LIGHT. THINK SOME OF THE
LACKLUSTER RAIN RESPONSE IN A FEW OF THE MODELS MIGHT BE DO TO A
LACK OF A STRONGER FOCUSING MECHANISM - LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
RESPONSE. CONSIDERING THE LOW LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED...WITH THE HELP
FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...STILL THINK NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI SHOULD HAVE A
DECENT SHOT FOR PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES DOWN A BIT
THOUGH GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND CURRENT PLACEMENT OF PCPN AND
PCPN FOCUSES.
FARTHER NORTH ANOTHER SCENARIO PRESENTS SOME RAIN CHANCES. A COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN NORTHWEST WI SHOULD GET A
SHOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LITTLE INSTABILITY AROUND THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP WITH PCPN PRODUCTION. THE MAIN QUESTION HERE IS
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET BEFORE IT PULLS EAST. THE NAM
SUGGESTS IT STAYS NORTH ALL NIGHT. THE 23.12 GFS AND GEM SUGGEST IT
GETS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SREF AND EC WOULD TREND THE PCPN NORTH...AS DOES THE ARW.
PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THINK CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO...SOME HAZINESS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
POTENTIAL PCPN TO THE SOUTH COULD WORK. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THAT FAR NORTH.
OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH PCPN WORKS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CENTRAL PARTS...ALONG I-90...MIGHT NOT
SEE ANYTHING. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST LATER
THIS EVENING AS TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
HIGH GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z
WED. MEANWHILE A LOFT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE REGION ON WED.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND QUIET. TEMPERATURES LOOK
COOL TO SEASONABLE FOR MON-TUE...WITH MORE SUMMER HEAT RETURNING FOR
WED AND THU. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED-THU...WITH APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL WARMING
RESULTING. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 24 TO 27 C VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF.
ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 2.5. LOOKS TO BE A RATHER HOT COUPLE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY LAYS UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN CHANCES FRI-SAT. ALSO...MORE
SEASONABLE AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.
EXITING SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS LED TO SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINED WITH A RIGHT
EXIT REGION OVER AREA...CLEARING TREND ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS
QUICKLY MAKING A PUSH EAST. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THIS TO KLSE
AROUND 01Z...THOUGH BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IN
SOUTHERN IOWA MAY PREVENT ANY SCATTERED CEILINGS.
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALIGNMENT TURNS NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND CENTERED ON TAF SITES...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE / RAP AND NAM /
IS RATHER MEAGER AND IS QUICKLY SHUNTED TO THE EAST BY 08Z. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO LOW PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION FIRING UP
ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH
WOULD BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
06Z...AS PER SOME OF THE MESO-MODEL GUIDANCE /HRRR/. NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THIS WOULD PERSIST TO KRST/KLSE...SO AT THIS TIME LEFT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z FROM THE NORTH...AND
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AT 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WAS DIME SIZE HAIL
RECENTLY REPORTED IN GREEN BAY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF TAYLOR COUNTY...AND IT EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE 22.12Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MODERATE MOISTURE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE AREAS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN DRY. MEANWHILE OTHERS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS. DUE TO THIS...JUST KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH AND AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. LIKE
YESTERDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG 925 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS
STARTING IN THE EVENING...AND THEN TRANSITIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
BRINGING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPES INTO THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS ARE BIT LOWER /3 TO 4 KM/ THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM LOOKS TRANSITORY...SO THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAIN IN THE EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...BUT STILL WOULD LIKE TO SEE
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED WIND OR HAIL THREAT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IMPRESSIVELY CLIMB INTO THE
28 TO 30C RANGE. THIS IS 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE
CFS VERSION 2 IS RUNNING 3 TO 6C ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES. LAST
YEAR WHEN WE REACHED 100 DEGREES...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING AROUND 26C...SO IT SEEMS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS
THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FASTER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A
RESULT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY RUNNING BETWEEN 18 AND
22C. DUE TO THIS DIFFERENCE...JUST STAYED WITH THE CONSALL
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON
THEIR PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH NO CLEAR CONSENSUS...JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. DON/T SEE AN IMPACT AT KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS
VIA LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT A FEW SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
WI. WILL MONITOR BUT LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AN ELONGATED BAND OF LIGHT -SHRA
CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHERN IA...DRIVEN IN PART BY A NARROW
BAND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. MESO MODELS DIMINISH THIS LATER THIS
AFTER...WHILE ALSO KEEPING IT WEST.
LATER TONIGHT...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SD/NEB
REGION...TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST ON SAT. WILL GET SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN WHERE ITS PCPN THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY
MOVE. THINK THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS THOUGH THAT SHRA/TS FROM THE MCS
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CHANCES IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO
THE REGION. THE MORNING/AFTERNOON CHANCES COULD STAY SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE...WITH THE BETTER THREAT COMING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE UPDATE...SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TODAY PERIOD. SKY GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT REALITY AS CU
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA AS EVIDENT FROM VIS
SATELLITE...CU FIELD IS BECOMING SCT-BKN. TEMPS AND WINDS WERE
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WERE LEFT ALONE
AS 925 HPA TEMPS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. CWA SHOULD SEE ADEQUATE
MIXING UP TO AND BEYOND 850 HPA AND WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
LOWER-LEVELS...GAVE REASON TO NOT ADJUST THEM.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS WX AND POPS TODAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NW OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE NW QUADRANT. BOTH HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING PRECIP
MORE FOCUSED IN THE NE AND EAST CENTRAL WITH THE LOCAL WRF BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...WITH
INSTABILITY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG ML CAPE AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THE
THREAT SHOULD BE MORE TO OUR NORTH AND OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF MADISON. COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD BE DRY THEN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
KEEPING AN EYE ON SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR RICE LAKE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX...OTHERWISE FORECAST FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH STRONGER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN FAR
SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING SOUTHEAST ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS.
BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STREAK DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS STATE
TODAY...IS FOCUSED OVER NE WI BUT CLIPPING SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC
COUNTIES ON GFS...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON ON NAM.
002Z ECMWF SLIPS IT BY TO THE NORTH. VORT MAX TRACKING WITH THIS
UPPER DIVERGENCE BRINGS DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
MAX INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA BY 18Z.
DISMISSING THE OVERLY HIGH 2 METER MODEL DEW POINTS...AND WENT BELOW
EVEN THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE DEW POINTS BASED ON MIXED-DOWN VALUES
WHICH WILL AGAIN GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS -18C
500 MB TEMPS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST
CWA...MOVING OVER 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH APPROACHES THE
-20C/50F CONVECTIVE RULE OF THUMB...THOUGH ALL MODELS KEEP THE -18C
TO THE NE OF CWA.
THIS PRODUCES 700-800 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA ...WITH CAPE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPPED BY SUBSIDENCE WARMING THE 700-600MB LAYER.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST.
WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO NEAR 800 MB AGAIN TODAY...WENT HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST OF KETTLE MORAINE IN MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE IN FAR EAST WITH COMBINATION OF
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE...AND IN THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
DRY TONIGHT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NEB/SO DAKOTA
IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW...ENHANCED
BY A SHORT WAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. RESULTING MCS STAYS
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. FOLLOWED BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL UNDERGO A STEADY PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE
DAKOTAS...COINCIDENT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT
EVEN REACH MADISON ON SATURDAY.
THEN THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ GETS GOING SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE NOSE POINTING INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE GFS WASHES
OUT THE FEATURE WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE SURFACE PRECIP
PATTERN...SO DID NOT WEIGH THE FORECAST CHANCE HEAVILY BASED ON THE
GFS MODEL QPF. SO CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF MADISON BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESS EASTWARD BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE LLJ LEANS
OVER AND AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ INCREASES. THE STRONGEST
WAA SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS...AND THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO...AND THERE IS NOT A STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE
APPARENT IN THE MODELS...SO SOUTHERN WI COULD BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
THE TWO AREAS OF BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WI AND IT IS
HARD TO IGNORE THE STRONG WAA PATTERN. INCREASED THE CHANCES TO THE
HIGH-CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT DURING THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. KEPT SUN AFTERNOON POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLOWER GFS...HOWEVER
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
NORTH WINDS WILL RUSH DOWN THE LAKE AND EVENTUALLY INLAND SUN
EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AND
FRIDAY COULD BE THE NEXT HOT SPELL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
WITH THE WAA. THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE GFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH
ITS QPF. FORTUNATELY...THE TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCT TO BKN CU DECK IN THE 4-5K FT RANGE.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL STAYS TO THE NORTH OF TAF SITES.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE WILL TURN LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT MKE...RAC AND ENW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REACH UES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
244 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS WITH THE SPORADIC CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO A SEASONAL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SPANNING FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION HELD ON OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT WAS NOSING INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS JET STREAK WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH...DESPITE DECREASING INSTABILITY...THE SHOWERS LIKELY
HOLDING ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF THE JET STREAK.
DESPITE THIS JET STREAK MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATER
TODAY...ANOTHER FORM OF LIFT WILL COME IN BEHIND IT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION NEAR
WINNIPEG THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE 22.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL COME LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST AND MID
LEVEL WARMING KICKS IN. 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR IS MODEST BUT DECENT
ENOUGH AT ABOUT 40KTS THAT A STRAY ORGANIZED STORM COULD PUT DOWN
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WHEN SBCAPE RISES UP TO AROUND
1000J/KG LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
IN TONIGHT AND WILL END ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WHILE A BROAD
SURFACE LOW SITS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THE STRONGEST
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE WEST INTO
THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN GRADIENT OF THE TRANSPORT
PUSHES INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL END UP BEING ANY CONVECTION THAT
OCCURS OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THIS TRANSPORT SHIFTS EAST. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS...SUCH AS THE
22.00Z NSSL WRF...ARE A BIT FASTER WITH BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION
IN THAN WHAT THE 22.00Z NAM/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW FOR TONIGHT.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THERE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT VERY HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO SATURDAY...SO
AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THIS WAVE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE JUST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS THIS FEATURE COMES THROUGH IF WE GET SPLIT BY AN MCS
RUNNING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ITS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
OVERNIGHT AND 0-3KM MUCAPE REACHES THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6KM WIND
SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AN MCS WITH ABOUT 40-60 KTS OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL 3-6KM WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD
HELP TO MAKE THIS COMPLEX DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ. AFTER THIS MCS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND BRING A DRY
END TO THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
244 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING
UP ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH THE CORE OF A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID-WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM IT
GOING ACROSS IOWA. SOME LOW CHANCES EXIST THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
NORTH OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEK ONCE WINDS COME BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. DON/T SEE AN IMPACT AT KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS
VIA LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT A FEW SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
WI. WILL MONITOR BUT LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AN ELONGATED BAND OF LIGHT -SHRA
CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHERN IA...DRIVEN IN PART BY A NARROW
BAND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. MESO MODELS DIMINISH THIS LATER THIS
AFTER...WHILE ALSO KEEPING IT WEST.
LATER TONIGHT...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SD/NEB
REGION...TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST ON SAT. WILL GET SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN WHERE ITS PCPN THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY
MOVE. THINK THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS THOUGH THAT SHRA/TS FROM THE MCS
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CHANCES IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO
THE REGION. THE MORNING/AFTERNOON CHANCES COULD STAY SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE...WITH THE BETTER THREAT COMING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
244 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
248 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS THRU TONIGHT WITH SSW FLOW MID LVL FLOW. WATER VAPOR
DOES SHOWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NRN CO
AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500 MB WITH LIMITED CAPES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
BUT LITTLE RAINFALL DUE TO LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE HIGHER CAPES MAINLY NR
THE CO-NE BORDER HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY AFTN TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY BASED ON
LATEST DATA LOOK ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT OVER NERN CO
AS READINGS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK. RECORD AT
DENVER IS 100 SO THIS COULD BE TIED OR BKN THIS AFTN. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN CLOULD DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS THIS AFTN BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME LINGERING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER NERN CO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD HI BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS EVENING. BEST CHC OF RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE NR THE WY- NE BORDER AREA WHERE BETTER LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
.LONG TERM...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO
CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH EARLY MONSOON
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE STATE. QPF FIELDS FROM
THE MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. WE MAY END UP SEEING EPISODES OF DRY
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXACERBATE
THE ALREADY VOLITILE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH. MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOWS TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT THAT TIME. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE STATE
AND WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WHICH SOME
MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THAT TRACK
WOULD ALSO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO
COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS THE RUC AND HRRR THRU
THIS AFTN. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT SSW AND THEN
BECOME MORE ENE BY EARLY AFTN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. FOR THIS
EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTM FM 23Z-02Z. WITH LARGE T-TD
SPREADS GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH COULD OCCUR IF A STORM MOVED OVER THE
AIRPORT. WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY TRENDS TOWARD
DRAINAGE BY 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH
LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH
STORMS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL WINDS TODAY WILL
BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ211>218.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING HAVE NOW MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (OFB) HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OSAGE COUNTY...THEN NORTHWARD TO EAST OF MARYSVILLE. NORTHEAST OF
THIS OFB...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. WHILE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE OFB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KS. THOUGH
THE HRRR AND ARW DID SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
ALONG THE NE BORDER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OFB ALONG THE NE BORDER. I
INSERTED 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS BROWN...NEMAHA...JACKSON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN CASE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE TO
THE KS BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO
THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE C RANGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 102 TO 104
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ATTM...I ONLY HAVE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 103
DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...THEN HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GARGAN
LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT.
...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN EXPECTED TO FORCE A HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ANY MODIFYING OR COOLING INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE MODEST WITH EAST WINDS MON INTO TUES YET HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH MON/TUES. WIDE SPREAD OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MON/TUES AND PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN COOL BIAS OF GFS BASED NUMBERS.
HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDS INTO THURS AS UPPER
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND
100 AND PERHAPS 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA
WITH AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE THE TAFS. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
DOMINATE...THOUGH DIRECTION A BIT MORE SSE TO START AND LIKELY
MORE SSW IN MUCH OF THE MIDDLE HOURS WHEN SOME MINOR GUSTS COULD
OCCUR...BUT MODERATE DUE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SUFFICE.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD NRN
LK SUP. SFC-H85 SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT 1.00-1.20 INCHES
/UP TO 140 PCT OF NORMAL/ IN ADVANCE OF ATTENDANT COLD MOVING SEWD
THRU NE MN/NRN LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AND UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 90KT H3 JET MAX HAS
SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SHRA OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS
FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG
STRIKES WITHIN THE PCPN CLUSTERS. BEHIND THE COLD FNT...MUCH DRIER
AIR IS PRESENT AS DIAGNOSED FM THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS NEAR LK
WINNIPEG. THE 00Z PWAT THERE WAS 0.40 INCH...ABOUT 33 PCT OF NORMAL.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING COMBINATION OF INCRSG H925-7 MSTR CNVGC/UPR DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING JET MAX BRINGING
SHRA TO MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UP TO 0.50-0.75
INCH FALLING OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO UPR JET AXIS/SHRTWV TRACK AS
SFC COLD FNT SURGES INTO THE U.P. RECENT RUC RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/LOCATION OF SHRA CLUSTERS...
SO RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT FOR A GUIDE TO SHORT TERM PCPN
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE SFC COLD FNT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES
AND ENDED THE HIER POPS EARLIER.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY BE STILL ONGOING OVER THE SE CWA
THIS MORNING...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR DRYING
UNDER MORE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV WL END
ANY LINGERING PCPN QUICKLY BY MID MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE LO CLDS WL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FROPA...ABSENCE OF ANY LO CLDS UPSTREAM ATTM IS OF SOME CONCERN.
BUT UPSLOPE NLY FLOW INTO THE NRN TIER OF RA MOISTENED AIR COOLER
AIR OVER LK SUP MAY STILL CAUSE LO CLDS...SO HELD ON TO THIS FCST
FOR NOW THRU THE MRNG BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR TRAILING THE FRONT
SURGES IN THIS AFTN AND BRINGS ABOUT INCRSG SUNSHINE. SINCE THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...CUT
FCST HI TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT...DESPITE INCRSG SUNSHINE...
TEMPS NEAR LK SUP MIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH GUSTY N WIND OFF
THE COOL WATERS. THE STEADY NNW WIND IS FCST TO BUILD WAVES AS HI AS
3 TO 5 FT IN THE LK SUP NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN. LOCAL OFFICE
PROCEDURE INDICATES A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E OF MQT THRU
THE MOST EXPOSED BEACHES IN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG.
TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF DOMINATING...SFC HI PRES IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NW WI/WRN UPR MI BY 12Z MON. PWAT IS FCST TO
FALL BLO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE W CLOSER TO THIS SFC HI PRES...
WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LGT. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...TENDED TO GO
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W. EVEN ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. A STEADY NNW FLOW
OVER THE E HALF FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER WL TEND TO RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH IDEA OF
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDGE CURRENTLY
BRINGING HEAT TO SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CORE OF WARMEST AIR NEVER MAKES IT INTO UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EDGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPRESSES THE RIDGE BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH EXTENT OF COOLING IS
IN QUESTION SOME WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. SINCE MAIN BELT OF MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVR CANADA MUCH OF THE WEEK...PATTERN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LAKE BREEZES WILL BE MAIN STORY.
COOLEST READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH GRADIENT
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST
WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
MID 60S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. ELSEWHERE THOUGH GIVEN GOOD
MIXING UP TO H8 PER GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
LOW-MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FCST 50-75 PCT OF
NORMAL SO ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE DECENT IN FAVORED
COLD SPOTS...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS AT OR ABOVE MONDAY AFTN
DWPNT READINGS. RESULT WILL BE LOWS FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN COLD
SPOTS TO MID TO UPR 40S ELSEWHERE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS OVERALL UPPER/SFC PATTERN
IS SLOW TO MOVE WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THANKS TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANAMOLIES OVR WESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AXIS OF
THE HIGH FCST TO SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE PATTERN
FAVORS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY BACKED WINDS/ONSHORE FLOW ON THE KEWEENAW AND
OVR NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN NEAR MARQUETTE. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN
CU WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL REBOUND AS GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG.
EXPECT DAYTIME READINGS NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 80 DEGREES
GIVEN WARMING H85-H8 TEMPS OVER MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR HITTING 80
DEGREES WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WEST IN THE BARAGA PLAINS AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS TO GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EAST TOWARD UPPER LAKES
AND AS SFC-H85 HIGH AXIS MOVES EAST AS WELL PUTTING UPPER LAKES
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. BEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT H85 REMAINS
TO THE WEST OVR DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. SOME HINT AT JET STREAK DIVING FM
ONTARIO INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES ON PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
REALLY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/ SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. TROUBLE IS THAT THE 23 JUNE/12Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS INTO LK SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN AND ACTUALLY
GENERATES BATCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THAT
RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW PRECIP...SO THINKING IS
IT IS A PRETTY LOW CHANCE. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A BIT MORE SKY COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA AND WILL KEEP A SIMILAR IDEA GOING.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER BKN CLOUDS AND SHRA TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE WEST INTERIOR.
ONGOING H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ON
PERIFERY OF RIDGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FM THE SOUTHWEST. EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MOST LIKELY TO SET UP
OVR UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. CONSENSUS SHOWING SMALL CHANCES OVR LK
SUPERIOR SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. A VERY WARM DAY STILL IN THE OFFING FOR
THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF IN SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL TO UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WARM FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH IDEA THAT FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SCNTRL CWA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MIXING
TO H9-H85 SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IF WARMER H85 TEMPS OFF ECWMF /20-22C/ VERIFY. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
NOT QUITE SURE IF SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAKE IT TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE SO
DID NOT BUDGE TEMPS TOO MUCH OFF UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FM ONTONAGON
TO BARAGA AND TO MARQUETTE AS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LIKELY WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LOCATED AND ALSO ON GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE RESERVOIR UP TO 4000J/KG PER GFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...JUST PROBABLY
NOT VERY HIGH OF A CHANCE SINCE STRONGER DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH OF
OVR ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRONGER JET IS FCST AS WELL. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...H85 TEMPS
ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C. INCREASED HIGHS OVER MODEL
CONSENSUS OVR MOST AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OVR SCNTRL AS
COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THERE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...IF ECMWF IS CORRECT UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO TRIES
TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS KEEPS PATTERN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING BY LATE DAY. GIVEN THE
DIFFERNCES...KEPT WITH CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW FOR MOST FCST
ELEMENTS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS SOME FARTHER INLAND AWAY FM ANY LAKE
MODERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE NEXT 6HRS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST
TRENDS IN MODELS AND RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE SHOWERS AND FRONT PASS
THROUGH...EXPECT CIGS TO TREND DOWN TO MVFR VALUES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORN. DID DROP ALL THREE SITES TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LLVL MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THEM REACH IFR. ALSO MENTIONED SOME LOWER
VSBYS AT KCMX DUE TO SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE FOG OF LK SUPERIOR. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT FAIRLY QUICK DRYING...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
CLEARING SKIES BY 15-16Z AT EACH SITE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT N TO NW WINDS
TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. OTHER THAN THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE FIRST 24 HRS...COMBINATION OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGH STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
AOB 20 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE
COOLER LAKE WATERS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE BRIEF AS MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. LATER FCSTS
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA AFFECT THE LAKE. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
939 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
02Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THE TAIL END OF THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH AN 800-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SEEN ON PROFILER AND VWP DATA...ALONG WITH
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FARTHER
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA...SUPPORTED BY A 25-30KT 850MB JET AND INSTABILITY
BEING FRONTOGENETICALLY LIFTED OUT OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
(ESTIMATED BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER RAP ANALYSIS). OUR
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN STAYING DRY BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT MIGHT BE KEEPING OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY IS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE PRESENT OVER THE CHICAGO
AREA. IN FACT...SKIES HAVE NEARLY CLEARED OUT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER PER LATEST IR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT CAN BE SEEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
SORTA CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION GOING ON THERE.
QUESTION NOW OVERNIGHT IS WILL CONVECTION OCCUR...ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. 24.01Z AND QUITE A FEW PREVIOUS RAP RUNS HAVE KEPT
THE BEST 925MB THROUGH 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN IOWA. PERHAPS LATE IN THE NIGHT THE 925MB
GETS FOCUSED BACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS NORTHEAST IOWA...IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA.
THUS...THINK AT LEAST FOR CONVECTION PRODUCED FROM WARM
ADVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THAT TO OCCUR...IF AT ALL. LATEST 24.00Z NAM WOULD CONCUR WITH
THIS ASSESSMENT TOO. PLUS...INSTABILITY RIGHT NOW IS FAR AWAY AS
NOTED EARLIER. TO THE NORTH...AREA OF MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO. IT
IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THESE APPROACH TAYLOR AND CLARK
COUNTIES...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...FOR THE FORECAST CHANCES...REMOVED MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WHERE 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DESCRIBED EARLIER. CLOUD COVER IS REALLY
TRICKY TONIGHT TOO. THE CLEARING OCCURRING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COULD EASILY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDED BY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. TRIED TO INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST...WITH CLOUDS COMING
BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FROM
THE NORTH FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUNDAY MORNING FORECAST...GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS
WITH THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED-THU...WITH APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL WARMING
RESULTING. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 24 TO 27 C VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF.
ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 2.5. LOOKS TO BE A RATHER HOT COUPLE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY LAYS UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN CHANCES FRI-SAT. ALSO...MORE
SEASONABLE AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH BECOMES FURTHER ENHANCED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS...THOUGH. THE FIRST IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WHICH AS OF 05Z SUNDAY WAS IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...IN THE LOW 60S...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE LACK OF
RAIN...SHORT NIGHT LENGTH AND STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL ALL PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. PERHAPS SOME MVFR BR
MIGHT FORM AT WORST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE COLD FRONT AND IF
CONVECTION CAN FIRE ON IT. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. LAST CONCERN IS THE WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
WHICH WILL BE FELT MORE AT KRST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD KICK
UP TO 10-15 OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN GUST TO NEAR
20 KT FOR A BRIEF TIME NEAR 00Z. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER
06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
952 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.UPDATE...VERY WARM MORNING WITH A LOW AT THE DENVER AIRPORT OF 68
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH
DENVER HITTING 91 DEGREES BY 930 AM. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT COOLER
TODAY...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 100S.
HOWEVER...THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
SO IT APPEARS THAT 100-105 WILL BE WIDESPREAD TODAY. MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH IN DENVER THIS
MORNING. STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE IT WILL BE EASIER TO BREAK THE CAP.
WHAT RAIN THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION...WHICH SUPPORTS THE LOW POPS
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY
LIGHTNING. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS A CELL POPPING UP IN WASHINGTON
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE...WILL ADD 10 POPS
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAY HIT THE DENVER AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
WINDS...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS THRU TONIGHT WITH SSW FLOW MID LVL FLOW. WATER VAPOR
DOES SHOWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NRN CO
AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500 MB WITH LIMITED CAPES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
BUT LITTLE RAINFALL DUE TO LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE HIGHER CAPES MAINLY NR
THE CO-NE BORDER HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY AFTN TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY BASED ON
LATEST DATA LOOK ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT OVER NERN CO
AS READINGS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK. RECORD AT
DENVER IS 100 SO THIS COULD BE TIED OR BKN THIS AFTN. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS THIS AFTN BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABV NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME LINGERING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER NERN CO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD HI BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS EVENING. BEST CHC OF RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE NR THE WY- NE BORDER AREA WHERE BETTER LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO
CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH EARLY MONSOON
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE STATE. QPF FIELDS FROM
THE MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. WE MAY END UP SEEING EPISODES OF DRY
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXACERBATE
THE ALREADY VOLATILE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH. MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOWS TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT THAT TIME. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE WHEN THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE STATE
AND WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WHICH SOME
MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THAT TRACK
WOULD ALSO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO
COLORADO.
AVIATION...WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS THE RUC AND HRRR THRU
THIS AFTN. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT SSW AND THEN
BECOME MORE ENE BY EARLY AFTN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. FOR THIS
EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTM FM 23Z-02Z. WITH LARGE T-TD
SPREADS GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH COULD OCCUR IF A STORM MOVED OVER THE
AIRPORT. WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY TRENDS TOWARD
DRAINAGE BY 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH
LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH
STORMS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL WINDS TODAY WILL
BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
HYDROLOGY...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1153 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TODAY AND TO WARM UP MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES TODAY.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA AND A DEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA, BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE, A
BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH 25-30
DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE. UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST,
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
16-17C BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES.
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO, BRINGING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY NORTHEAST OF BIGGEST, WHERE
THE GREATER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MODERATE SHEAR AND FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST AN ISOLATED
ONE AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IF ANY
STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE. CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, AT LEAST INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL
BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS HEADED BACK INTO THE 40S. DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF TO ENTRENCH THIS PATTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
ON SUNDAY NIGHT PARKS ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MODERATION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-WEEK. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY.
LATER IN WEEK...UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO NORTH IN CANADA DEAMPLIFIES
RIDGE. EVEN SO LOW LEVEL WARMTH CONTINUES AND HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING ECMWF TREND OF EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. MAX TEMPERATURES READINGS ON
FRIDAY INTO NEAR OR RECORD TEMPERATURES. PRECIP CHANCE INCREASES TO
AROUND 30/40 PERCENT FRIDAY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
03Z-09Z. FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
AREAS OF MORNING FOG. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD NRN
LK SUP. SFC-H85 SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT 1.00-1.20 INCHES
/UP TO 140 PCT OF NORMAL/ IN ADVANCE OF ATTENDANT COLD MOVING SEWD
THRU NE MN/NRN LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AND UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 90KT H3 JET MAX HAS
SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SHRA OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS
FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG
STRIKES WITHIN THE PCPN CLUSTERS. BEHIND THE COLD FNT...MUCH DRIER
AIR IS PRESENT AS DIAGNOSED FM THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS NEAR LK
WINNIPEG. THE 00Z PWAT THERE WAS 0.40 INCH...ABOUT 33 PCT OF NORMAL.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING COMBINATION OF INCRSG H925-7 MSTR CNVGC/UPR DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING JET MAX BRINGING
SHRA TO MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UP TO 0.50-0.75
INCH FALLING OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO UPR JET AXIS/SHRTWV TRACK AS
SFC COLD FNT SURGES INTO THE U.P. RECENT RUC RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/LOCATION OF SHRA CLUSTERS...
SO RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT FOR A GUIDE TO SHORT TERM PCPN
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE SFC COLD FNT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES
AND ENDED THE HIER POPS EARLIER.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY BE STILL ONGOING OVER THE SE CWA
THIS MORNING...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR DRYING
UNDER MORE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV WL END
ANY LINGERING PCPN QUICKLY BY MID MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE LO CLDS WL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FROPA...ABSENCE OF ANY LO CLDS UPSTREAM ATTM IS OF SOME CONCERN.
BUT UPSLOPE NLY FLOW INTO THE NRN TIER OF RA MOISTENED AIR COOLER
AIR OVER LK SUP MAY STILL CAUSE LO CLDS...SO HELD ON TO THIS FCST
FOR NOW THRU THE MRNG BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR TRAILING THE FRONT
SURGES IN THIS AFTN AND BRINGS ABOUT INCRSG SUNSHINE. SINCE THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...CUT
FCST HI TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT...DESPITE INCRSG SUNSHINE...
TEMPS NEAR LK SUP MIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH GUSTY N WIND OFF
THE COOL WATERS. THE STEADY NNW WIND IS FCST TO BUILD WAVES AS HI AS
3 TO 5 FT IN THE LK SUP NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN. LOCAL OFFICE
PROCEDURE INDICATES A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E OF MQT THRU
THE MOST EXPOSED BEACHES IN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG.
TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF DOMINATING...SFC HI PRES IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NW WI/WRN UPR MI BY 12Z MON. PWAT IS FCST TO
FALL BLO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE W CLOSER TO THIS SFC HI PRES...
WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LGT. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...TENDED TO GO
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W. EVEN ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. A STEADY NNW FLOW
OVER THE E HALF FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER WL TEND TO RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH IDEA OF
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDGE CURRENTLY
BRINGING HEAT TO SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CORE OF WARMEST AIR NEVER MAKES IT INTO UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EDGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPRESSES THE RIDGE BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH EXTENT OF COOLING IS
IN QUESTION SOME WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. SINCE MAIN BELT OF MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVR CANADA MUCH OF THE WEEK...PATTERN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LAKE BREEZES WILL BE MAIN STORY.
COOLEST READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH GRADIENT
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST
WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
MID 60S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. ELSEWHERE THOUGH GIVEN GOOD
MIXING UP TO H8 PER GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
LOW-MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FCST 50-75 PCT OF
NORMAL SO ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE DECENT IN FAVORED
COLD SPOTS...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS AT OR ABOVE MONDAY AFTN
DWPNT READINGS. RESULT WILL BE LOWS FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN COLD
SPOTS TO MID TO UPR 40S ELSEWHERE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS OVERALL UPPER/SFC PATTERN
IS SLOW TO MOVE WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THANKS TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANAMOLIES OVR WESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AXIS OF
THE HIGH FCST TO SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE PATTERN
FAVORS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY BACKED WINDS/ONSHORE FLOW ON THE KEWEENAW AND
OVR NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN NEAR MARQUETTE. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN
CU WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL REBOUND AS GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG.
EXPECT DAYTIME READINGS NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 80 DEGREES
GIVEN WARMING H85-H8 TEMPS OVER MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR HITTING 80
DEGREES WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WEST IN THE BARAGA PLAINS AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS TO GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EAST TOWARD UPPER LAKES
AND AS SFC-H85 HIGH AXIS MOVES EAST AS WELL PUTTING UPPER LAKES
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. BEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT H85 REMAINS
TO THE WEST OVR DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. SOME HINT AT JET STREAK DIVING FM
ONTARIO INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES ON PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
REALLY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/ SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. TROUBLE IS THAT THE 23 JUNE/12Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS INTO LK SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN AND ACTUALLY
GENERATES BATCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THAT
RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW PRECIP...SO THINKING IS
IT IS A PRETTY LOW CHANCE. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A BIT MORE SKY COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA AND WILL KEEP A SIMILAR IDEA GOING.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER BKN CLOUDS AND SHRA TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE WEST INTERIOR.
ONGOING H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ON
PERIFERY OF RIDGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FM THE SOUTHWEST. EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MOST LIKELY TO SET UP
OVR UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. CONSENSUS SHOWING SMALL CHANCES OVR LK
SUPERIOR SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. A VERY WARM DAY STILL IN THE OFFING FOR
THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF IN SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL TO UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WARM FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH IDEA THAT FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SCNTRL CWA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MIXING
TO H9-H85 SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IF WARMER H85 TEMPS OFF ECWMF /20-22C/ VERIFY. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
NOT QUITE SURE IF SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAKE IT TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE SO
DID NOT BUDGE TEMPS TOO MUCH OFF UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FM ONTONAGON
TO BARAGA AND TO MARQUETTE AS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LIKELY WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LOCATED AND ALSO ON GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE RESERVOIR UP TO 4000J/KG PER GFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...JUST PROBABLY
NOT VERY HIGH OF A CHANCE SINCE STRONGER DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH OF
OVR ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRONGER JET IS FCST AS WELL. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...H85 TEMPS
ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C. INCREASED HIGHS OVER MODEL
CONSENSUS OVR MOST AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OVR SCNTRL AS
COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THERE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...IF ECMWF IS CORRECT UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO TRIES
TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS KEEPS PATTERN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING BY LATE DAY. GIVEN THE
DIFFERNCES...KEPT WITH CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW FOR MOST FCST
ELEMENTS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS SOME FARTHER INLAND AWAY FM ANY LAKE
MODERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS/FOG MAY LINGER THIS MRNG BEHIND THE COLD FROPA...
EXPECT A STEADY DRYING TREND N-S TO VFR AS HI PRES BLDS TOWARD WRN LK
SUP BY LATE TODAY. THERE WL ALSO BE A STEADY N WIND...STRONGEST AT
THE MORE EXPOSED SAW LOCATION WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL ALSO BE
SHARPEST. WINDS WL TURN LIGHT TNGT WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE HI
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT N TO NW WINDS
TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. OTHER THAN THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE FIRST 24 HRS...COMBINATION OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGH STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
AOB 20 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE
COOLER LAKE WATERS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE BRIEF AS MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. LATER FCSTS
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA AFFECT THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1004 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. PATCHY CLOUD COVER
HAS DIMINISHED AND THE FEW VERY WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER THE LAKE
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE MAX AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER EXAMINING THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECTING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
EAST END OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING TODAY BUT
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE AREA REMAINS
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN WIND
AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BOWING SEGMENTS.
FORTUNATELY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT GET GOING TILL AFTER MAX
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ENDED. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP TO LIKELY
IN NE OH AND NW PA. PRECIP ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE NO MORE THAN HIT OR MISS. THE FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH SEASONABLE READINGS
RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING THURSDAY UPPER RIDGE BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING CLOSE TO 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AT
LEAST 90 FOR WESTERN AREAS. WHILE STILL LOW AT THIS TIME MODELS
SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MORE THURSDAY NIGHT SO WENT
WITH THE LOWER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THEN.
FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY...SO
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING RIDGE BREAK DOWN AND ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST CHC POPS
FOR SHRA/TS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT THINKING THE FRONT WILL HAVE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THINKING THAT THE WEAK BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIP. MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS AS GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE
TO LEAN COOLER THIS FAR OUT. LIKE THE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS
ALREADY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA GIVES
WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE COLD FRONT
TO CROSS SITES EARLY TONIGHT FROM AROUND 00Z TO 05Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE MENTION OF TEMPO SHRA WITH THE FRONT. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT
ON TIMING AT THIS POINT OF TSRA ACTUALLY IMPACTING TERMINALS...DO
THINK THE CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z AND
04Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF 18Z TAFS. SOUTH-SW WINDS
TODAY WILL SHIFT NW AND THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY THINKING THAT LOWER CLOUDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FROM CLE-MFD EAST LATER TONIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT CLE AND ERI AFTER 07Z MON.
CIGS MAINLY VFR ACROSS TOL-FDY.
.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MAINLY EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
WAVES OVER THE LAKE. FOR THE NEARSHORE...LOOKING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF MAY SEE
AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE SHOULD BE
FROM THE SSW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT WILL TRACK OVER
THE LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOSE TO
20KT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR QUIETER CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
250 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH A HIGH OF 101 AT KDEN
AS OF 2 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GFS AND HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FORM
OVER THE PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PARK COUNTY TO DENVER NORTHEAST
TO STERLING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS FOR
MONDAY. RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 100 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY BREAK IT
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A HIGH IN THE LOW 100S LIKELY. WITH THE DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY. WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
.FIRE WEATHER...RADAR SHOWING WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND DO NOT
THINK ANY RAINFALL HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET. HAVE HAD 10-15 CLOUD
TO GROUND STRIKES SO FAR AND WOULD EXPECT MORE AS THE DAY
PROGRESS...THUS WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
EXPECT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
ACROSS THE EASTERN...HOT..VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR MONDAY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MDLS DO
ENTRAIN SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WISE...PERSISTENCE THE
RULE WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES SO SHUD TIE OR
BREAK OUR STREAK IN DENVER OF 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR OVER 100
DEGREES. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND BECOMES
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...SO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A BIT MORE
WESTERLY. AS A RESULT...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME MORE
WEST TO EAST...SO WL CARRY THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ONTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. INTERATIVE SOUNDINGS DO NOT GENERATE ANY
CAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVNG...BUT IT CLIMBS TO AROUND 600-700 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 03Z MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER MAY BE NECESSARY ON TUESDAY...WITH A THE PRESENCE OF A BIT
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAY HIT THE
DENVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE DIRECTION TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
PLAINS MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KAPA AND KDEN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHT RAINFALL AT MOST IS EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ211>213-
215-217-218-241-244>251.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211>218.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
341 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDST OF AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH
TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
PLUME OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA,
BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH AROUND 30 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
IN PLACE. UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO, BRINGING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE
THE GREATER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MODERATE SHEAR AND FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST AN ISOLATED
ONE AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IF ANY
STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE.
CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AT LEAST
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS
FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS ECMWF/GFS/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER VORTEX ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH OVER WISCONSIN WILL ALLOW
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY BOTH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND THE EAST
SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
COOLING TO 6-9C. WITH THIS IN MIND, MONDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS, AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP BY A FEW
DEGREES AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RECOVER WITH THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT EACH NIGHT, BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES COULD DROP TO NEAR 40 MONDAY
NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWING
THE UPPER LOW PULLING FURTHER NORTHEAST, DEEP RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A SURFACE HIGH BECOMING
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH 850 TEMPS RECOVERING TO 12-15C. WITH THIS IN MIND,
FORECAST HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN
RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW/FLAT
RIDGING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HENCE THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OF
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUB CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPR/MID LVL HIGH PROJECTED TO REMAIN SW AND
S OF THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES USING A
BLEND OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GFS MOS...AS COMPARED TO HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
03Z-09Z. FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
AREAS OF MORNING FOG. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
INCREASE SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA AND A DEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA, BRINGING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE, A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH AROUND 30 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE. UPSTREAM TO
THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
16-17C BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES.
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO, BRINGING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE
THE GREATER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MODERATE SHEAR AND FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST AN ISOLATED
ONE AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IF ANY
STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE. CLOUD COVERAGE AND TDS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, AT LEAST INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS HEADED BACK INTO THE 40S. DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF TO ENTRENCH THIS PATTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
ON SUNDAY NIGHT PARKS ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MODERATION WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-WEEK. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY.
LATER IN WEEK...UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO NORTH IN CANADA DEAMPLIFIES
RIDGE. EVEN SO LOW LEVEL WARMTH CONTINUES AND HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING ECMWF TREND OF EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. MAX TEMPERATURES READINGS ON
FRIDAY INTO NEAR OR RECORD TEMPERATURES. PRECIP CHANCE INCREASES TO
AROUND 30/40 PERCENT FRIDAY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
03Z-09Z. FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
AREAS OF MORNING FOG. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
JPB
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION FIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
SAGINAW BAY BEFORE FROPA SHIFTED ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
ONLY SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN...AND WILL QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS JUST AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES...
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS
FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW
FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN
THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS.
AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH
PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN
OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT
FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW.
NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT
TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ-
GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A
FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE
PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE LOCALLY.
TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN
U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU
FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS.
THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE
BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/.
MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL
TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND
71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE
ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
/68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD.
TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO
NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE
MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS.
PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND
EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL
THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH
COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE
AIRMASS TRANSITIONS.
CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE.
DETAILS:
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT
HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER
SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE
AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA
LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND
THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT
ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF
AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK
OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/
SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID
80S/.
FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S
BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT
DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S
WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL
THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS.
GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL
THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT
WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON.
TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25
KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER.
MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON
LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...JPB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JA
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE COOL SPELL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
JPB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
PATTERN: ANOMALOUS -NAO CONTINUES. THE GTLKS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND. UPR FLOW IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM WHEN -NAO IS COMBINED WITH A HOT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS
FAR N INTO CANADA...WITH THE LNGWV TROF OVER THE NE STATES AND NW
FLOW INTO THE GTLKS BECOMING NNW TNGT-MON. THIS TROF WILL DEEPEN
THRU MON AS 100 KT ULJ SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GTLKS.
AT THE SFC: A COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH
PRES VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SLIDE SE INTO MN/WI TNGT AND REMAIN
OVER WI MON. LOW-LVL CAA WILL CONTINUE TNGT. THERMAL TROF WILL DRIFT
FROM OVERHEAD BY DAWN INTO THE ERN LAKES TOMORROW.
NOW: COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM APN-GOV-CAD. HARD TO GAGE
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE WNW ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT
TEMP GRADIENT SUPPORTS. MSAS THETA-E RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FRMO DRM-PZQ-
GLR-GOV-LAKE CITY WITH 3-HOUR PRES RISES BEHIND. RADAR HAS SHOWN A
FEW SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPING AND DYING WITHIN AGGITATE CU FIELD IN THE
PAST HOUR. LAPS MLCAPE HAS 500-1000 J/KG...BUT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS VERY WEAK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FEW J/KG OF CIN. SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH BEFORE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
JUST NOTED LAKE BREEZE IN 1934Z OB FROM OSC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE LOCALLY.
TNGT: CLEARING. WHILE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F OVER THE ERN
U.P. SATL SHOWS SWD CLEARING TREND AND IT WILL ACCELERATE AS CU
FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS ARE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS.
THIS COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE /2-3F TOO COLD/ BUT IT`S IN THE
BALLPARK OF THE MET TEMPS /43-50F INLAND AND 50-58F NEAR THE COASTS/.
MON: SUNNY. PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH A BIT OF COOLNESS UNTIL
TEMPS GET ABOVE 70F BY MID-AFTN. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE. N WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15-20 MPH. USING +6 850 TEMP YIELD HIGHS AROUND
71F IN FULL SUN. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE 1-2F OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE
ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
/68-74F/. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD.
TELECONNECTIONS: ARCTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PNA HAS RETURNED TO
NEUTRAL AFTER A RECENT NEGATIVE SPELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
POSITIVE AS CURRENT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
NAO CONTINUES IT/S NEGATIVE TREND /WHICH DATES BACK TO LATE
MAY/...WITH ANY DEVIATIONS BACK TOWARDS NEUTRAL CERTAINLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS.
PATTERN SUMMARY: THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA BOOKENDED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST. THIS PUTS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OF CANADIAN /CP/ ORIGIN. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTH AND
EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE NEWLY MOBILE TROUGH FLATTENING THE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION TO CT BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT WILL RELOAD THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...RETURNING OUR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO START THE PERIOD. OVERALL
THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEEK OF CHANGING TEMPERATURES...WITH
COOL READINGS TO START FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE WARMUP...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT MODEST COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION /WHICH LOOK SMALL/ WILL BE WITH EACH OF THESE
AIRMASS TRANSITIONS.
CONFIDENCE: MODELS AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE /SEE FSU CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS/ THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF THE EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...BRINGING IT MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
MODEL PREFERENCES: GIVEN IT/S CONSISTENCY OF LATE...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED MORE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE.
DETAILS:
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE MIXING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST /BETTER GRADIENT
HERE/...EXPECT FULL DECOUPLING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /AFTERNOON CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR 40F/ EXPECT LOWS IN MANY OF THE COOLER
SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
GRADUAL MODERATION EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH H85 RIDGE
AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD. DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS /PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH STUFF SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT/ WITH DRY LLEVELS. SO...WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND H85S
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE 10C DURING THE DAY...LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H85 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE...AND FULL AIRMASS TRANSITION TO CT BEGINS AS EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO GET TUGGED EAST BY POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AS FAR EAST AS MINNESOTA
LATE TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPILLING OVER THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING A RUN AT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE /AND
THUS INSTABILITY/ TO THE WEST...EXPECT IT TO DECAY AS IT
ARRIVES...BUT IT COULD THROW A FEW CLOUDS/SPRINKLES OUR WAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER IT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ELEVATED LOWS /MID 50S/ TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WON/T GO TOO WARM AS CONTINUED LLEVEL DRY AIRMASS /AND
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IF
AFOREMENTIONED MCS REMNANTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TEENS T85S BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEVELOPING STABLE PROFILE AND NOT MUCH TO SPEAK
OF IN TERMS OF MECHANICAL MIXING POTENTIAL /GIVEN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/ LIKE GOING HIGHS /UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S/
SOMEWHAT BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO H85/ VALUES /WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID
80S/.
FULL FLEDGED HEAT BLASTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
WITH ARRIVING EML. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS 590DM H5/S
BUILD INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF SOMETHING MAKING A RUN AT THE SAULT/FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT
DRY...AND WITH T700S WARMING TO AROUND +14C ON THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE CAPPING WILL KEEP ANYTHING AT BAY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS T85/T92S
WARM INTO THE LOW 20S C BUT WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING...WE CERTAINLY WON/T REALIZE ALL OF THIS. CONTINUE TO FEEL
THAT 90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IS WARRANTED...AND THIS CONTINUES TO HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MOS.
GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO CP AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WITH LITTLE HELP ALOFT AND POOR LLEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE LARGE THETA-E CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. FEEL
THAT SCHC/LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 356 PM/
A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ST MARY`S RVR S THRU LOWER MI.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MI. WSHFT
WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET OVER LAKE HURON.
TNGT: EXTENDED SCA`S FURTHER IN TIME FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL G25
KTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO N. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNGT FOR
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE MI/HURON AND SCA`S WILL LOWER.
MON: N WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL WATERS...BUT WILL HANG ON
LONGER ON LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO TAWAS BAY...DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
MON NGT-TUE: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THRU 00Z: COOL FRONT IS THRU PLN TVC MBL AND NOW APRCHG APN.
EXPECT WSHFT AT APN 19-20Z. MVFR CIGS CONT AT PLN APN AND ARE
THREATENING TVC. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT TVC THRU 20Z. CLDS ARE
DIMINISHING FROM THE N. SO HAVE MVFR CIGS LIFTING BY 20Z AT PLN
APN. CAN SEE NEED FOR EXTENDING THIS TO 21Z AT APN. WINDS ARE WNW
5-10 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED HEATING/THINNING CLDS...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH G20.
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
CIG CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
WIND CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE ON MAGNITUDE/GUSTINESS
TNGT: VFR/CLEARING BY 02Z. THREAT FOR FOG NIL AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN ON GENERALLY NNW WINDS WHICH WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 5 KTS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A FEW STRATOCU/CU DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY.
N WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10G17 KTS. CONFIDENCE HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: JPB
SHORT TERM: HALBLAUB
LONG TERM: ARNOTT
AVIATION: HALBLAUB
MARINE: HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD NRN
LK SUP. SFC-H85 SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT 1.00-1.20 INCHES
/UP TO 140 PCT OF NORMAL/ IN ADVANCE OF ATTENDANT COLD MOVING SEWD
THRU NE MN/NRN LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AND UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 90KT H3 JET MAX HAS
SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SHRA OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS
FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG
STRIKES WITHIN THE PCPN CLUSTERS. BEHIND THE COLD FNT...MUCH DRIER
AIR IS PRESENT AS DIAGNOSED FM THE 00Z RAOB FM THE PAS NEAR LK
WINNIPEG. THE 00Z PWAT THERE WAS 0.40 INCH...ABOUT 33 PCT OF NORMAL.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING COMBINATION OF INCRSG H925-7 MSTR CNVGC/UPR DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING JET MAX BRINGING
SHRA TO MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UP TO 0.50-0.75
INCH FALLING OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO UPR JET AXIS/SHRTWV TRACK AS
SFC COLD FNT SURGES INTO THE U.P. RECENT RUC RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/LOCATION OF SHRA CLUSTERS...
SO RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT FOR A GUIDE TO SHORT TERM PCPN
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE SFC COLD FNT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW NOTCHES
AND ENDED THE HIER POPS EARLIER.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY BE STILL ONGOING OVER THE SE CWA
THIS MORNING...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR DRYING
UNDER MORE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV WL END
ANY LINGERING PCPN QUICKLY BY MID MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE LO CLDS WL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FROPA...ABSENCE OF ANY LO CLDS UPSTREAM ATTM IS OF SOME CONCERN.
BUT UPSLOPE NLY FLOW INTO THE NRN TIER OF RA MOISTENED AIR COOLER
AIR OVER LK SUP MAY STILL CAUSE LO CLDS...SO HELD ON TO THIS FCST
FOR NOW THRU THE MRNG BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR TRAILING THE FRONT
SURGES IN THIS AFTN AND BRINGS ABOUT INCRSG SUNSHINE. SINCE THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...CUT
FCST HI TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT...DESPITE INCRSG SUNSHINE...
TEMPS NEAR LK SUP MIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH GUSTY N WIND OFF
THE COOL WATERS. THE STEADY NNW WIND IS FCST TO BUILD WAVES AS HI AS
3 TO 5 FT IN THE LK SUP NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN. LOCAL OFFICE
PROCEDURE INDICATES A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E OF MQT THRU
THE MOST EXPOSED BEACHES IN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG.
TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF DOMINATING...SFC HI PRES IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NW WI/WRN UPR MI BY 12Z MON. PWAT IS FCST TO
FALL BLO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE W CLOSER TO THIS SFC HI PRES...
WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LGT. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...TENDED TO GO
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W. EVEN ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. A STEADY NNW FLOW
OVER THE E HALF FARTHER FM THE HI CENTER WL TEND TO RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH IDEA OF
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDGE CURRENTLY
BRINGING HEAT TO SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CORE OF WARMEST AIR NEVER MAKES IT INTO UPPER
GREAT LAKES BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EDGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPRESSES THE RIDGE BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH EXTENT OF COOLING IS
IN QUESTION SOME WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. SINCE MAIN BELT OF MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVR CANADA MUCH OF THE WEEK...PATTERN
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LAKE BREEZES WILL BE MAIN STORY.
COOLEST READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH GRADIENT
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST
WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
MID 60S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. ELSEWHERE THOUGH GIVEN GOOD
MIXING UP TO H8 PER GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
LOW-MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FCST 50-75 PCT OF
NORMAL SO ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE DECENT IN FAVORED
COLD SPOTS...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS AT OR ABOVE MONDAY AFTN
DWPNT READINGS. RESULT WILL BE LOWS FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN COLD
SPOTS TO MID TO UPR 40S ELSEWHERE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS OVERALL UPPER/SFC PATTERN
IS SLOW TO MOVE WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW THANKS TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANAMOLIES OVR WESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AXIS OF
THE HIGH FCST TO SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE PATTERN
FAVORS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BE THE STRONGEST...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY BACKED WINDS/ONSHORE FLOW ON THE KEWEENAW AND
OVR NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN NEAR MARQUETTE. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN
CU WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL REBOUND AS GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG.
EXPECT DAYTIME READINGS NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 80 DEGREES
GIVEN WARMING H85-H8 TEMPS OVER MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR HITTING 80
DEGREES WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WEST IN THE BARAGA PLAINS AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS TO GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EAST TOWARD UPPER LAKES
AND AS SFC-H85 HIGH AXIS MOVES EAST AS WELL PUTTING UPPER LAKES
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85. BEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT H85 REMAINS
TO THE WEST OVR DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. SOME HINT AT JET STREAK DIVING FM
ONTARIO INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES ON PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
REALLY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/ SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. TROUBLE IS THAT THE 23 JUNE/12Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS INTO LK SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN AND ACTUALLY
GENERATES BATCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THAT
RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW PRECIP...SO THINKING IS
IT IS A PRETTY LOW CHANCE. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A BIT MORE SKY COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA AND WILL KEEP A SIMILAR IDEA GOING.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER BKN CLOUDS AND SHRA TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE WEST INTERIOR.
ONGOING H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ON
PERIFERY OF RIDGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FM THE SOUTHWEST. EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MOST LIKELY TO SET UP
OVR UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. CONSENSUS SHOWING SMALL CHANCES OVR LK
SUPERIOR SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. A VERY WARM DAY STILL IN THE OFFING FOR
THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF IN SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL TO UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WARM FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH IDEA THAT FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SCNTRL CWA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MIXING
TO H9-H85 SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IF WARMER H85 TEMPS OFF ECWMF /20-22C/ VERIFY. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
NOT QUITE SURE IF SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAKE IT TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE SO
DID NOT BUDGE TEMPS TOO MUCH OFF UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FM ONTONAGON
TO BARAGA AND TO MARQUETTE AS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LIKELY WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LOCATED AND ALSO ON GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE RESERVOIR UP TO 4000J/KG PER GFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...JUST PROBABLY
NOT VERY HIGH OF A CHANCE SINCE STRONGER DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH OF
OVR ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRONGER JET IS FCST AS WELL. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...H85 TEMPS
ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS C. INCREASED HIGHS OVER MODEL
CONSENSUS OVR MOST AREAS...WITH MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OVR SCNTRL AS
COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THERE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...IF ECMWF IS CORRECT UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO TRIES
TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS KEEPS PATTERN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING BY LATE DAY. GIVEN THE
DIFFERNCES...KEPT WITH CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW FOR MOST FCST
ELEMENTS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS SOME FARTHER INLAND AWAY FM ANY LAKE
MODERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM CLOUDS OVER SAW FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR MAYBE
TWO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT N TO NW WINDS
TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. OTHER THAN THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE FIRST 24 HRS...COMBINATION OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGH STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
AOB 20 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE
COOLER LAKE WATERS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE BRIEF AS MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. LATER FCSTS
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA AFFECT THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
612 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MONDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK THEN ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH ANOTHER LEADING BATCH OF RAIN FROM ABOUT
PENN YAN NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY WEST...WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LATER THIS EVENING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTAL FEATURES...WILL CROSS OR APPROACH THE REGION. A PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SHOWERS TOWARD TORONTO...WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SECOND BOUNDARY NEAR THE THUMB OF MI...WITH OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING A THIRD/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SREF DATA HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS A HIGH PROBABILITY...ALONG THE THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWING A CONVECTIVE RESPONSE. HOWEVER...JUST AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BOOST THE PROBABILITY UP A NOTCH AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST GENERALLY AS
IS...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NY AND A HIGHER
PROBABILITY SOUTHEAST AND EAST. WILL FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH
AND DRY THE AREA OUT IN THE WEST A BIT EARLIER THOUGH...WITH A
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 02-04Z.
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND HENCE QPF IS LOW WITH
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LESS THAN THAT
FARTHER WEST...WITH SOME AREAS OF WESTERN NY POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL GOES...IT ALSO LOOKS QUITE
LIMITED...ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...HIGHER CAPE CAN BE FOUND OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AS PER SPC/1HR FORECAST RAP. LATEST 21Z AMDAR
SOUNDING FROM YHM SHOWS A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND HARDLY ANY
CAPE...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700MB. LOCALLY SBCAPE IN OUR
NEIGHBORHOOD REMAINS IN THE 500-800J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SPARSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS SHOWN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER- TURNING...WITH A NOD TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED YHM AMDAR DATA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY
20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 10K FEET. WITH
POOR INSTABILITY AND ONLY A MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NOT TO
MENTION EXPECTED LACK OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ANY SEVERE WX
RISK IS MINIMAL AS NOTED BY 20Z SPC OUTLOOK.
AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER FOR AWHILE...BUT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
ON MONDAY THE DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MID
LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF AND
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ASCENT TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY. OF
GREATER IMPORTANCE...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LATE MORNING ON. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW...WITH LESSER CHANCES
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONLY THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF NY WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BE DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND +6C...WHICH WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN ASSUMING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY WHILE DIMINISHING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT WILL
BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S...AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THE SUITE OF MODELS (CMC/NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ADVANCE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE DRY
AIR TO PASS ACROSS WNY WITH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHED
CHCS FOR SHOWERS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH STILL
COOL AIR ALOFT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST UNDER MORE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
TOUCHING INTO THE 70S...WHILE TO THE EAST MID AND UPPER 60S WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...THOUGH
NOT AS COOL AS THE PRECEDING NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 50S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW SPIRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANY CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE FAR EAST...AND LOW CHCS
AT THIS. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING OMEGA BLOCK...STILL
CENTERED NEAR 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADA MARITIMES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN
CANADA...CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UPON THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGE
AND FORCE SUMMER WARMTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED
SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE RID OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEARING OF A
WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS TO COVER FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FOR NOW. MODELS BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ERASING THE MUGGY AND VERY WARM AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF
TRACK...SATURDAY WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND DRIER.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA A
CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY TOWARDS
THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL BE JUST A LOW CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LINE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD FROM KPEO NORTHEAST...WITH A SECOND LINE NEARING CYYZ
AT 21Z. THIS SECOND LINE...LIKELY THE COLD FRONT...MAY STRETCH AND
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND CLIP PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY
BETWEEN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY SUMMER STANDARDS WILL ENTER THE LOWER
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MONDAY MORNING EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATER IN THE DAY
EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY TO SCATTER OUT AND RETURN
TO VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEN SET
IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ALLOWS AN UNSTABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP...AND A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A LONGER
FETCH ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. ON LAKE ERIE A
SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP WAVES IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
543 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR
MONDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK THEN ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH ANOTHER LEADING BATCH OF RAIN FROM ABOUT
PENN YAN NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY WEST...WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LATER THIS EVENING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTAL FEATURES...WILL CROSS OR APPROACH THE REGION. A PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SHOWERS TOWARD TORONTO...WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SECOND BOUNDARY NEAR THE THUMB OF MI...WITH OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING A THIRD/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SREF DATA HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS A HIGH PROBABILITY...ALONG THE THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWING A CONVECTIVE RESPONSE. HOWEVER...JUST AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BOOST THE PROBABILITY UP A NOTCH AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST GENERALLY AS
IS...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NY AND A HIGHER
PROBABILITY SOUTHEAST AND EAST. WILL FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH
AND DRY THE AREA OUT IN THE WEST A BIT EARLIER THOUGH...WITH A
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 02-04Z.
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND HENCE QPF IS LOW WITH
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LESS THAN THAT
FARTHER WEST...WITH SOME AREAS OF WESTERN NY POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL GOES...IT ALSO LOOKS QUITE
LIMITED...ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...HIGHER CAPE CAN BE FOUND OVER THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA. SBCAPE IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD REMAINS IN THE
500-800J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SPARSE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS SHOWN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER OVER-TURNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 10K FEET. WITH POOR INSTABILITY AND ONLY A
MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NOT TO MENTION EXPECTED LACK OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ANY SEVERE WX RISK IS MINIMAL AS NOTED BY
20Z SPC OUTLOOK.
AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER FOR AWHILE...BUT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
ON MONDAY THE DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MID
LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF AND
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ASCENT TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY. OF
GREATER IMPORTANCE...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LATE MORNING ON. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW...WITH LESSER CHANCES
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONLY THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF NY WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BE DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND +6C...WHICH WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN ASSUMING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY WHILE DIMINISHING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT WILL
BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S...AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THE SUITE OF MODELS (CMC/NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ADVANCE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE DRY
AIR TO PASS ACROSS WNY WITH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHED
CHCS FOR SHOWERS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO LINGER WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH STILL
COOL AIR ALOFT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST UNDER MORE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
TOUCHING INTO THE 70S...WHILE TO THE EAST MID AND UPPER 60S WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...THOUGH
NOT AS COOL AS THE PRECEDING NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 50S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW SPIRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANY CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE FAR EAST...AND LOW CHCS
AT THIS. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING OMEGA BLOCK...STILL
CENTERED NEAR 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADA MARITIMES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHERN
CANADA...CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UPON THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FLATTEN THE PLAINS RIDGE
AND FORCE SUMMER WARMTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED
SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE RID OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEARING OF A
WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS TO COVER FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FOR NOW. MODELS BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ERASING THE MUGGY AND VERY WARM AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF
TRACK...SATURDAY WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND DRIER.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA A
CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY TOWARDS
THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS WILL BE JUST A LOW CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LINE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD FROM KPEO NORTHEAST...WITH A SECOND LINE NEARING CYYZ
AT 21Z. THIS SECOND LINE...LIKELY THE COLD FRONT...MAY STRETCH AND
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND CLIP PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY
BETWEEN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY SUMMER STANDARDS WILL ENTER THE LOWER
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MONDAY MORNING EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATER IN THE DAY
EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY TO SCATTER OUT AND RETURN
TO VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEN SET
IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ALLOWS AN UNSTABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP...AND A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A LONGER
FETCH ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. ON LAKE ERIE A
SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP WAVES IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE AND JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS BUT NO BIG CHANGES
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS...RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH
ARE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD HAD PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUESTION OF HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
ESE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL BEST MOVE MAY BE
TO CONTINUE TO JUST MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN SMALL CHANCE FOR
HAVING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO AFFECT CIGS AND VSBYS. AMENDMENTS CAN
LATER BE MADE TO BETTER FOCUS ON TAF SITES WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO LOOK MORE POSSIBLE.
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN TAFS
BY LATE EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF FURTHER INLAND SITES BY
ABOUT 08Z. WITH LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAV GUIDANCE
MAINTAINING VFR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR EXCEPT FOR ERI WHERE ADDED
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...TK/REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
IN MOST PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF LAKE ERIE. THE HRRR MODEL STILL PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 00Z NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS MAV POPS WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER MODEL FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD HAD
PREDICTED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH
DID NOT VERIFY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY A FAIR AND PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER COOL
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR 5C NEAR ERI WHICH PRODUCES A WELL MIXED ADIABATIC LAYER
BELOW 700 MB OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM
16 TO 21C. SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT RATHER DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MON AND TUE BUT BY WED 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGHS FRI
THROUGH SUN SO HARD TO TRY AND BEST DETERMINE WHEN BETTER THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL BE. GENERAL LACK OF GULF MOISTURE COULD MEAN THE FRONT OR
FRONTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING MUCH PRECIP SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY POSITION OF FRONTS. STILL LOOKS TO
BE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRI THEN MORE UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUESTION OF HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
ESE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL BEST MOVE MAY BE
TO CONTINUE TO JUST MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN SMALL CHANCE FOR
HAVING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO AFFECT CIGS AND VSBYS. AMENDMENTS CAN
LATER BE MADE TO BETTER FOCUS ON TAF SITES WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO LOOK MORE POSSIBLE.
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN TAFS
BY LATE EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF FURTHER INLAND SITES BY
ABOUT 08Z. WITH LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAV GUIDANCE
MAINTAINING VFR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR EXCEPT FOR ERI WHERE ADDED
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP.
.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING WAVES TO 4 FOOT OR MORE.
DON`T THINK WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MON NIGHT SO WILL RUN THE SCA UNTIL 4 AM TUE MORNING. THIS MAY
STILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE DAY TUE AS THE FLOW COULD STAY
CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS KEEPING MARGINAL SCA WAVES GOING INTO TUE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FOR WED TO PROVIDE A
LIGHT FLOW THAT BACKS TO SW BY WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.
EXPECT A SW TO WEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LATER THU THROUGH FRI. AT SOME
POINT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE LAKE BUT RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS CONSIDERABLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR BEST COLLABORATION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
THIS TIME...WITH LEADING EDGE OF WIND SHIFT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ALSO ACCELERATING WEST
SOUTHWEST AFTER INTERACTING WITH THIS WIND SHIFT.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA AROUND 00Z MONDAY. WEAK TO
MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...BUT
NOT MUCH ELSE FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG ARE PRESENT IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT WOULD TAKE
SUSTAINED ROBUST ASCENT TO ACCESS IT.
THUS...KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
00Z ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR MODEL GENERATING CELLS ALONG FRONT BUT HAS
BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALL DAY...SO NOT CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES.
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS
SHOULD BRING A QUICK COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
THE HIGH MONDAY WILL FIGHT FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES OF 7 TO 11
DEGREES CELSIUS AND NORTHEAST FETCH. FOR NOW...DID NOT PUT ANY LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS IN FORECAST.
.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WL FALL OFF RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
THE LAKE BREEZE WL TAKE ITS TOOL ON TUE WITH LAKESHORE AREAS HOLDING
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND AREAS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LLJ PIVOTS ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SRN
WI ON WED. HOWEVER PUSH OF WARM AIR ONLY SERVES TO ENHANCE STRONG
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION OVER SOUTHERN WI WHILE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. HENCE NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO BE TRIGGERED BY LLJ ON WED.
THINKING 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER W.R.T. COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH WED
EVE. FOR NOW...WL LEAN MORE ON OTHER MORE CONSISTENT SHORT-MID
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
DID BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS ON WED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
925H TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 20S AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO PULL IN THE WARMER AIR.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN GENERAL THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WEAKER FLOW AND WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS. ECMWF...GFS AND GEMH DO
CARRY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CAN THU/THU
NGT...WHICH FLATTENS /AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ BLOCKING RIDGE FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF COOL FRONT ASSOCD
WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CARRIES THRU SRN WI DURING THU... HOWEVER
GEMH AND UKMO SLOWER WITH PASSAGE ON FRI. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE SOUTH WL RETARD ANY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM MOVING NWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO...UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO TRACK OF TS
DEBBY BUT APPEARS HPC LEANING TOWARD MORE NRN TRACK ASSOCD WITH
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN IL ON FRIDAY BUT MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING DRIER NW FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK
WHICH WOULD NUDGE SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. HENCE MAY KEEP SMALL
POPS IN ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOCUSES ON DEBBY TO
THE SOUTH AND UPSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGING...GFS CARRIES ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WI ON SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS BASED
MORE ON GFS NEVER GETS HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH MEMBERS GETTING MUCH MORE CHAOTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
LATEST ECMWF CONSISTENT ON PUMPING VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COOL FRONT WED NGT AND THU. PUSHED
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THU. THE HOT TEMPS AND DEWPTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WL NUDGE THE HEAT INDEX TOWARD TRIPLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING KMSN...KUES AND KMKE BY 23Z AND KENW BY 00Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME BRISK
BY THESE TIMES...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND 01Z TO 03Z MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
LOWER A BIT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
LINGERING IN THE 10 TO 12 KNOT RANGE. OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE.
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO MARINE ZONES...AND UNTIL 17Z MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING.
&&
.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 12 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
$$
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK