Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/23/12


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
939 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 AM PDT THURSDAY...DRAMATIC COOLING TREND UNDERWAY THIS MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. YESTERDAY SAW WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S. BY THIS AFTERNOON SOME OF THE EAST BAY VALLEYS THAT WERE AROUND 95 ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...REPRESENTING A NEARLY 30 DEGREE COOLING TREND OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE DRAMATIC ONSHORE PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS NOW RAMPED UP TO 2500 FEET WITH HILLSIDE LOCATIONS THAT ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY REPORTING DREARY CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 5.0 MB THIS AFTERNOON WILL MEAN LITTLE OR NO CLEARING FOR THE COAST AND CLOUDS COULD HANG IN THE BAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ALONG WITH THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL HOWL INTO THE DELTA AND UP IN THE HILLS OF THE EAST BAY. AT THIS HOUR ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY ARE PROTECTED FROM THIS MARINE PUSH WITH TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING 80. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A 2500-3000 FOOT CLOUD DECK WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PLAN ON UPDATING FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SHOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF SONOMA COUNTY WITH DRIZZLE LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS ON FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EVEN BY BAY AREA STANDARDS THE OFFICIAL START TO SUMMER WILL BE OFF TO A COOL START...ESPECIALLY INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS BAKE. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. NORTHERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS INLAND INTRUSION. ALMOST ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STRATUS...AS THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOW AROUND 2000 FEET. LATE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...MAINLY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP SOUTH AROUND THE SF BAY TOWARD KSFO...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND A SOLID STRATUS DECK OFFSHORE...A LATE CLEARING AROUND 20Z IS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS CLEARING TIME BECAUSE THE NAM IS FORECASTING AN ALL DAY EVENT...WHILE THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED A LATE CLEARING...SO WENT WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MARINE LAYER. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS THAN THE TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE...SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRED TODAY AT 4:09 PM PDT. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM SCA...SF BAY && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
527 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 1400 FEET...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE DIRECTION WITH 3.1 MB FROM SFO TO SAC. THE NAM12 INCREASES THIS GRADIENT TO NEARLY 5 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. AS THIS TROUGH NEARS...AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES...AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 AT THE COAST TO THE 70S AND 80S INLAND...AS MANY AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE HILLS AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL HILLS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EVEN THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR DISTRICT ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. NORTHERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS INLAND INTRUSION. ALMOST ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STRATUS...AS THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOW AROUND 2000 FEET. LATE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...MAINLY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP SOUTH AROUND THE SF BAY TOWARD KSFO...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND A SOLID STRATUS DECK OFFSHORE...A LATE CLEARING AROUND 20Z IS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS CLEARING TIME BECAUSE THE NAM IS FORECASTING AN ALL DAY EVENT...WHILE THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED A LATE CLEARING...SO WENT WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MARINE LAYER. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS THAN THE TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE...SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRED TODAY AT 4:09 PM PDT. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM SCA...SF BAY && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 90S WITHIN VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AS DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT TO REACH DOWNWARD. HAVE MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100 DEGREES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LFC/S WILL MITIGATE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW BEGINNING TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF TONIGHT...AND A STRONGER CDFNT FRI. RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH 00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND 2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI. THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE. IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI FM SVT TO WCATSKILLS...PUSHING SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA FRI. GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE. SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN GENERAL TSTMS. BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY FRI. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...GOOD VISIBILITY...THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND THE SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DIMINISHING WIND MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MVFR BR/HZ AT ALL THE TAFS OTHER THAN KALB OVERNIGHT. AT KALB...ENOUGH OF A WNW BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING. THERE IS CHANCE OF IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BUT WE FEEL THE THREAT IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME SO DID NOT PLACE ANY IFR IN THOSE TAFS. ANY BR/HZ SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. AFTER THAT...WE ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE BUT THE THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW THROUGH MIDDAY AT OUR TAF SITES SO DID NOT MENTION THEM IN OUR TAFS. THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS. (AFTER 18Z). PLEASE REFER BACK TO OUR DISCUSSION/TAF FORECAST IF YOU ARE FLYING LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA MAINLY KGFL. SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX. SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. CIG. CHC SUB-VFR CHC RA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN 35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE. ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95 DEGREES FROM 1953. LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES... ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874) JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938 JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954 GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944) JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988 JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983 POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949) JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949 JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/SNYDER SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 90S WITHIN VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AS DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT TO REACH DOWNWARD. HAVE MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100 DEGREES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LFC/S WILL MITIGATE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW BEGINNING TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF TONIGHT...AND A STRONGER CDFNT FRI. RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH 00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND 2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI. THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE. IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI FM SVT TO WCATSKILLS...PUSHING SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA FRI. GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE. SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN GENERAL TSTMS. BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY FRI. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 500HPA AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER RGN TDY. VFR CONDS TODAY WITH WINDS BCMG NW-W 10KTS....GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF. WITH WARM TEMPS IN MID LEVELS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER AND ISOLD TSTM COULD FIRE TWRD EVENING IN CATSKILLS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TNGT AS WELL WITH NR CALM WINDS AND AREAS OF MVFR HZ AND BR LATE AT NIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. SAT...VFR. KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. KALB/KPSF...SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN 35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE. ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95 DEGREES FROM 1953. LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES... ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874) JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938 JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954 GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944) JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988 JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983 POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949) JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949 JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...KL/HWJIV/SNYDER SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...SNYDER FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1011 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1015 AM EDT...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES...WELL INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES (EXCEPT UPPER 70S SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS). SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE DAY. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH ANY OF THE PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE ALY RAOB AND ALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100 DEGREES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LCLS WILL MITIGATE ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LOOK FOR HIGHS 85 TO 90 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW TO MID 90S MOST VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW BEGINNING TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF THU NT....AND A STRONGER CDFNT FRI. RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH 00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND 2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI. THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE. IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI FM SVT TO W CATSKILLS...PUSHING SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA FRI. GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE. SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN GENERAL TSTMS. BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY FRI. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500HPA AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER RGN TDY. VFR CONDS TODAY WITH WINDS BCMG NW-W 10KTS....GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF. WITH WARM TEMPS IN MID LEVELS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER AND ISOLD TSTM COULD FIRE TWRD EVENING IN CATSKILLS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TNGT AS WELL WITH NR CALM WINDS AND AREAS OF MVFR HZ AND BR LATE AT NIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. SAT...VFR. KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. KALB/KPSF...SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN 35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE. ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95 DEGREES FROM 1953. LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES... ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874) JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938 JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954 GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944) JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988 JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983 POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949) JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949 JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...SNYDER FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .AVIATION...MOST OF AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE ERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER, WL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST. KAPF WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE, DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SE DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KNOTS, BUT INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 8-10 KNOTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ENSURE AN INCREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL EXPECT MOST OF IT ACROSS THE WEST COAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/ UPDATE... THE SKIES THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY. THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER COMPARE TO YESTERDAY...DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CWA. SO HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER REST OF THE CWA. THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SO WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. UPDATE...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/ AVIATION... RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE < 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/ DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 83 76 85 / 30 50 40 60 FORT LAUDERDALE 76 85 77 83 / 40 50 40 60 MIAMI 76 86 76 82 / 40 50 40 60 NAPLES 75 84 77 84 / 60 50 40 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .UPDATE... THE SKIES THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY. THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER COMPARE TO YESTERDAY...DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CWA. SO HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER REST OF THE CWA. THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SO WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .UPDATE...54/BNB .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/ AVIATION... RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE < 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/ DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 86 76 83 76 / 40 30 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 86 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 87 76 86 76 / 50 40 50 40 NAPLES 86 75 84 77 / 70 60 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD AVIATION/RADAR...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .AVIATION... RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE < 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/ DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 76 / 50 40 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 83 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 84 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 40 NAPLES 84 75 84 77 / 70 40 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 76 / 50 40 50 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 83 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40 MIAMI 84 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 40 NAPLES 84 75 84 77 / 70 40 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD AVIATION/RADAR...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MID DECK CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM IS...HOWEVER PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTA AREA...BUT STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER OR PRECIPITATION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WIND...EXPECTED...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF IFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...07 NEAR TERM...07 SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1008 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. SUN IS GOING DOWN AND AREA HAS LOST SURFACE HEATING. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST AREA RADAR FROM NORTH CAROLINA ALSO SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AERIAL COVERAGE.OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MID DECK CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM IS...HOWEVER PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTA AREA...BUT STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER OR PRECIPITATION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WIND...EXPECTED...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF IFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...07 NEAR TERM...07 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
830 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. SUN IS GOING DOWN AND AREA HAS LOST SURFACE HEATING. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST AREA RADAR FROM NORTH CAROLINA ALSO SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AERIAL COVERAGE.OTHERWISE ...FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL LOCATIONS. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NORTH CAROLINA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITY AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS PLUS LOCAL MOISTURE SOURCES. RADIATION SCHEME KEEP FOG OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE DISAGREES PLACING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY AT BOTH AGS AND OGB. KEPT CURRENT FORECAST WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE AND THE FACT THAT IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRED FOR A WHILE AT AGS THIS MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...07 NEAR TERM...07 SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL GO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING BUT HAVE INCLUDED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AREA FOR 3-4 HOURS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION INCLUDING LANCASTER...CHESTERFIELD...KERSHAW AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NC...WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OR LOWER JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AVAILABILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE AND TRACK OF WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ORTHOGRAPHIC EFFECTS LOOK TO KEEP BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. LATEST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING SREF POPS...MOS THUNDER PROBABILITIES...AND LOCAL WRF MODEL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER W NC...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE ESE. SOME STORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN FA. CHANCE POPS NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO LOOK FINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL LOCATIONS. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NORTH CAROLINA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITY AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS PLUS LOCAL MOISTURE SOURCES. RADIATION SCHEME KEEP FOG OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE DISAGREES PLACING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY AT BOTH AGS AND OGB. KEPT CURRENT FORECAST WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE AND THE FACT THAT IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRED FOR A WHILE AT AGS THIS MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...07 NEAR TERM...07 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT NEARLY HALF THE WAY ACROSS THE CWA...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 10 AM. UNFORTUNATELY THE BADLY NEEDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSED. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE CAP...AND LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMING OUT OF IOWA SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THAT FAR. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/GRIDS TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TRENDS. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED ALL OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A KCMI-KBLV LINE. HAVE BEEN SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT KCMI...AS LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 18Z TO PRECLUDE MENTION ELSEWHERE. HAVE HAD SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOWEST CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR RANGE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GEELHART && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HUETTL && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT NEARLY HALF THE WAY ACROSS THE CWA...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 10 AM. UNFORTUNATELY THE BADLY NEEDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSED. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE CAP...AND LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMING OUT OF IOWA SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THAT FAR. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/GRIDS TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TRENDS. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI IS STEADILY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON TRENDS AND 06Z NAM DATA...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS AS THE FRONT PASSES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KT. FURTHER WEST...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO W BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN TO THE W/NW AFTER FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT. BARNES && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HUETTL && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION... ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI IS STEADILY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON TRENDS AND 06Z NAM DATA...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS AS THE FRONT PASSES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KT. FURTHER WEST...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO W BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN TO THE W/NW AFTER FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT. BARNES && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BARNES && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1136 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS DURING THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING. ITS TIME OF ARRIVAL IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR MANY SHOWERS/STORMS...SO AM ONLY CARRYING A VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALSO KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH IF A HEAVY SHOWER/STORM WERE TO OCCUR ISOLATED LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY AS THE WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. BAK && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT THEN DIVERGE WITH HANDLING A DISTURBANCE IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM ALLBLEND POPS THIS WEEKEND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED. MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER MON THRU WED WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRESSING EASTWARD INTO SE IA TOWARD THE IL BORDER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OVER NW MO INTO EASTERN MO WITH MCS. COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SE INTO NW PARTS OF IL/MO NEAR GALESBURG SO CONVECTION IS POST FRONTAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FRONT MOVING QUICKLY INTO SE IL BY 18Z/1 PM WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING DURING THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL...THEN REDEVELOPING IN SE IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BRUNT OF ACTIVITY GETTING SE OF THE WABASH RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPC JUST HAS A 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SE OF THE IL RIVER TODAY...BUT THINK STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER MO WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE WABASH RIVER WHERE CONVECTION CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON AND SEE MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO ASSIST HEATING MORE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS MORNING SLIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SE IL EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WY/SD/NE BORDER TO DRIFT EAST INTO WI/IL BY 00Z/7 PM FRI AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE FRI WITH LESS HUMID AIR. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 80S IN SE IL. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF IL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SAT FROM NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUES 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ON SUNDAY NORTH OF I-70. HIGHS 85-90 THIS WEEKEND AND WARMEST IN SW AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEN. KH && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .AVIATION... VFR TAF CYCLE ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 10-15 KTS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. A FEW OR SCTRD CU AT 3-4K FT AGL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ..12.. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ .SYNOPSIS... AT 07Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MOST PART OF THE CWA. LINGERING AND DECAYING POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH DRIER WEATHER ALREADY MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL RAP AND HRRR...ALONG WITH 00Z MODELS AGREE IN CONTINUING THE TREND IN WEAKENING THE SHOWERS AND MOVING THEM SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS. SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AS A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WOLF .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ONE NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS. AT SUNRISE SATURDAY THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF THE NOCTURNAL MCS. CONCEPTUALLY AND INTERNALLY FROM THE MODELS THIS MCS SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NOT FAR NORTH OF THE SD/NE BORDER. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE MCS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KFSD OR NORTHWEST IOWA. MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MCS WOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED. THUS RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS MORE SHRA THAN TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN INITIALLY. BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE TSRA. WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT/BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT/BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA. SUNDAY ON... ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA AT SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 08 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AT 07Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MOST PART OF THE CWA. LINGERING AND DECAYING POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH DRIER WEATHER ALREADY MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL RAP AND HRRR...ALONG WITH 00Z MODELS AGREE IN CONTINUING THE TREND IN WEAKENING THE SHOWERS AND MOVING THEM SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS. SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AS A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ONE NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS. AT SUNRISE SATURDAY THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF THE NOCTURNAL MCS. CONCEPTUALLY AND INTERNALLY FROM THE MODELS THIS MCS SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NOT FAR NORTH OF THE SD/NE BORDER. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE MCS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KFSD OR NORTHWEST IOWA. MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MCS WOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED. THUS RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS MORE SHRA THAN TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN INITIALLY. BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE TSRA. WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT/BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT/BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA. SUNDAY ON... ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA AT SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 08 && .AVIATION... LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING SCATTERED...SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CID AND DBQ SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE MLI AND BRL SITES BY LATE MORNING. ANY OCCURRENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AND GIVEN THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...LESS LIKELY AT MLI AND BRL. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE RAIN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WOLF && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ WOLF/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
902 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END AT 4Z. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA. H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A ROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE. MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES CAUSING THIS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE TERMINALS...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF KMCK...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE TERMINALS...CAUSING GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING AND WINDS TO VEER TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: SATURDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080. && $$ UPDATE...JRM SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER AVIATION...CJS CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
712 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END AT 4Z. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA. H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A ROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE. MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES CAUSING THIS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE TERMINALS...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF KMCK...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE TERMINALS...CAUSING GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING AND WINDS TO VEER TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: SATURDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080. && $$ UPDATE...JRM SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER AVIATION...CJS CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA. H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A ROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE. MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES CAUSING THIS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE TERMINALS...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF KMCK...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE TERMINALS...CAUSING GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING AND WINDS TO VEER TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: SATURDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001- 002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079- 080. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER AVIATION...CJS CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE AREA. WILL HANG ONTO THE ISOLATED POPS A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE ASSESSING HOW LONG OF A LULL THERE WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IF NOT THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A POTENTIAL RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE LATEST SREF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS SCENARIO. FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE HOURLIES TO MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. AT THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. SOME MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS AT ANY LOCATIONS THAT MANAGED TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR AT BOTH LOZ AND SME FOR NOW TOWARDS DAWN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AT THE TAF SITES DURING PEAK HEATING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
309 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECWMF MODEL. AT THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT EASTERN KY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AT SME AND LOZ BEING REDUCED TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WITH THIS WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AREAS FROM JKL SOUTHWESTWARD BEING LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT CARRY ANY THUNDER IN TAFS...BUT ONLY INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING FOR FRIDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .DISCUSSION... NW-SE BAND OF ACCAS AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH HAS PERSISTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SW MN HAS BEEN THINNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORT MAX WHICH DOVE OUT OF NE MN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR NOW IN THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICHIGAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL REMAIN NE OF OUR AREA. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH NEAR LEVELS OF LAST NIGHT...BUT INCREASING MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL PUSH MAINLY INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNITE. BROAD WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS AREA FOR SATURDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. BEST FORCING FOR PCPN TOMORROW SHUD BE ACROSS S MN...N OF WARM FRONT WHERE 850 MB JET TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS IA TOWARD S MN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WAA PATTERN AND INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE BIT COOLER TEMPS THAN TODAY. VIGOROUS TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO DROPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS EASTERN CWA. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE DRIVES COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF SETTLED AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE SUN TEMPS. SOME INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. RETAINED THE LOW POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES THRU. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN LONGER RANGE BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SWINGING TOWARD AREA OUT OF CANADA. WENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORS WITH LOW POPS. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN/EC SD HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SE...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SC MN. HOWEVER...-SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHRA NEAR RWF/AXN BETWEEN 6-12Z. CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS STC/RNH/MSP AS THE LATEST RAP HAS MORE DEVELOPMENT AFT 6Z ACROSS CENTRAL MN...EXTENDING SE TOWARD MSP. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH AT THESE PLACES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA BY 12Z. RNH/EAU...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON TSRA/SHRA UNTIL AFT 12Z. WNDS WILL BECOME SE/ESE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO GUSTS DURING THE MORNING. MSP...SHRA/TSRA IN EC SD/SW MN WILL HOLD IN THIS AREA THRU 9Z. DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AFT 9Z...SO WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE VCSH BY 9Z. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ATTM BASED ON THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...OR AT LEAST UNTIL AFT 12-15Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE SE TOWARD MSP BY 12Z. MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. OUTLOOK... .SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .SUNDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. JLT && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ BAP/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
850 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIES JUST SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS AND STRETCHES BACK THROUGH MEAGHER COUNTY. HRRR PRODUCT A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE AS IT DEPICTS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AS STAYING TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMEPRATURES LOOK REASONABLE. EMANUEL && .AVIATION... UPDATED 2340Z. MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT/BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVE AS ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS INTO ERN MT/SRN CANADA WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE FROM KBZN TO KGTF TO EAST OF KCTB. LATEST FORECAST DATA HAS BACKED OFF ON EXPECTED INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP BUT ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND MVFR CEILINGS THRU 06Z. WARANAUSKAS && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA. CONVECTION TODAY WAS LIMITED BY A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MINOR DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS SATURDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY CONVECTIVE SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP THUS ENDING MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE ZONES UNDERNEATH MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO THE WEST. THE TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND BRING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE DECREASING TO THE EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL HAVE RATHER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM THE WEST WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ZELZER && .FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-TEENS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN ARE MID-SLOPE AND VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND HELENA THROUGH BROADWATER AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES TO NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY (ESSENTIALLY ALL OF FIRE ZONE 118 AND PARTS OF FIRE ZONE 116). DISCUSSION WITH FIRE MANAGERS INDICATE THAT FUEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT FUEL TYPES IS ALREADY NEAR-CRITICAL BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER FUELS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FIRE WEATHER WATCH CRITERIA AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ON SUN/MON...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WEEKEND SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE WINDS AND UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS NEEDED. WARANAUSKAS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 78 56 88 / 20 20 20 10 CTB 54 70 54 78 / 40 60 70 20 HLN 56 84 55 91 / 10 20 20 10 BZN 48 86 50 92 / 10 10 10 0 WEY 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 50 83 50 87 / 10 0 10 10 HVR 56 78 58 89 / 30 30 20 10 LWT 52 78 55 86 / 10 10 20 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMANUEL/GUSTAFSON LONG TERM...ZELZER AVIATION...BLANK WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENTAND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAF. WINDS WILL BE STEADY/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING MAY ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE TERMINAL AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR 15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE 17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT. SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .AVIATION...00Z TAF. WINDS WILL BE STEADY/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING MAY ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE TERMINAL AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR 15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE 17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT. SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-017. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AS THE FRONT EXITS EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE CDFNT. PREV BLO... 850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS) TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF 600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA. PREV BLO... 645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. 345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE 90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE (CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING (COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE... THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ARE ON BOARD WITH PERSISTENT LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL LOBES DIFFER. ALSO...ECMWF IS TENDING TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE VICINITY BY LATEWEEK...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH INSTEAD SHIFTS IT INTO NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...COOL TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /ESPECIALLY NORTH/. A PREFRONTAL WAVE...MARKED IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS IN GFS/ECWMF...WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY COLD FROPA INTO MONDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...UPGRADED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THAT PERIOD. COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. BEYOND THEN...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. DIURNAL HEATING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DRIVE STEEP LAPSE RATES EACH AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HARNESSING YET- TO-BE- RESOLVED WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z UPDATE... WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED -TSRA KELM/KBGM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT AND THUS NOT IN TAF. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE CAPPED...INHIBITING CONVECTION...WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS READY TO EAT UP ANY SHOWER THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP. TONIGHT...INITIALLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME VALLEY FOG TRYING TO DEVELOP...MAINLY KELM AND TO LESSER DEGREE KAVP. HOWEVER...INBOUND COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT /AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE AHEAD OF FRONT/...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL...APPEARS LIKELY TO HALT FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE OF SOME IFR WILL BE FOR KELM FOR A TIME...BEFORE INCOMING FRONT KILLS IT. LOOKING FOR DECK OF CLOUDS AT 5-6 KFT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TSRA WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST OF KBGM-KRME LINE...WITH BEST CHANCE KAVP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AS FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA. OUTLOOK... LATE FRI THROUGH SUN...MAINLY VFR. SUN NGT TO MON...CHC MVFR WITH SHOWERY COLD FRONT. MON NGT THRU TUE...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME. && .CLIMATE... NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY. JUNE 21 FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953 BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953 AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923 && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...MDP CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1241 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AS THE FRONT EXITS EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE CDFNT. PREV BLO... 850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS) TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF 600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA. PREV BLO... 645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. 345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE 90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE (CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING (COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE... THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ARE ON BOARD WITH PERSISTENT LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL LOBES DIFFER. ALSO...ECMWF IS TENDING TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE VICINITY BY LATEWEEK...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH INSTEAD SHIFTS IT INTO NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...COOL TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /ESPECIALLY NORTH/. A PREFRONTAL WAVE...MARKED IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS IN GFS/ECWMF...WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY COLD FROPA INTO MONDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...UPGRADED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THAT PERIOD. COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. BEYOND THEN...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. DIURNAL HEATING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DRIVE STEEP LAPSE RATES EACH AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HARNESSING YET- TO-BE- RESOLVED WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV. OUTLOOK... FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR. SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. && .CLIMATE... NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY. JUNE 21 FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953 BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953 AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923 && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...DGM CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1159 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTINOS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE CDFNT. PREV BLO... 850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS) TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF 600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA. PREV BLO... 645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. 345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE 90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE (CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING (COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ALSO ARE AT LEAST CONCURRING ON GENERAL PATTERN /DETAILS OF DEEPNESS OF UPPER LOW AND TIMING OF LOWEST THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT/. HPC FORECAST HANDLES THIS CHANGE WELL AND FORMS THE BASIS OF OUR LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. AFTER SEEING OUR FIRST AIR MASS ADJUSTMENT FROM THE COLD FRONT EARLIER /FRIDAY/...A SECOND COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND PERSISTENT COOL UPPER LOW THAT WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE BEYOND THEN DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM COLD AIR ALOFT IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF DRY SLOTTING AROUND LOBES OF THE UPPER LOW CAN KILL OFF CHANCES DURING CERTAIN PERIODS...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV. OUTLOOK... FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR. SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. && .CLIMATE... 4 AM UPDATE... BINGHAMTON TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA JUST MISSED. NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY. JUNE 21 FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953 BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953 AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923 && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...DGM CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
851 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS) TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF 600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA. PREV BLO... 645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. 345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE 90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE (CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING (COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ALSO ARE AT LEAST CONCURRING ON GENERAL PATTERN /DETAILS OF DEEPNESS OF UPPER LOW AND TIMING OF LOWEST THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT/. HPC FORECAST HANDLES THIS CHANGE WELL AND FORMS THE BASIS OF OUR LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. AFTER SEEING OUR FIRST AIR MASS ADJUSTMENT FROM THE COLD FRONT EARLIER /FRIDAY/...A SECOND COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND PERSISTENT COOL UPPER LOW THAT WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE BEYOND THEN DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM COLD AIR ALOFT IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF DRY SLOTTING AROUND LOBES OF THE UPPER LOW CAN KILL OFF CHANCES DURING CERTAIN PERIODS...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV. OUTLOOK... FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR. SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. && .CLIMATE... 4 AM UPDATE... BINGHAMTON TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA JUST MISSED. NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY. JUNE 21 FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953 BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953 AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923 && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...DGM CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM EAST TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE CWA AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE RALEIGH AREA AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD A SMALL POP TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY AS WHAT INSTABILITY WE DO HAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 AM THU...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MID WEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS ERN NC WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND ANY PCPN REMAINING WELL NW OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PRODUCING SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND 68-73 INLAND AND MAINLY M70S COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 500 AM THU...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NE US. THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS AND SREF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM HANGS IT UP AND THE ECMWF BASICALLY DISSIPATES IT OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE GULF WHICH COULD TRACK ACROSS FL AND OFF THE SE COAST SOME TIME NEXT WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STUCK WITH CONSISTENCY/HPC BLEND FOR EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING...AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH...CAN`T RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND...BEYOND THAT TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE INLAND AND LOWS 65 TO 70. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TAF SITES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT KOAJ AND SOME POSSIBLE MVFR HAZE AT KISO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KEWN FOR POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SMOKE LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS AS IF THE FIRE WILL BE WELL ENOUGH VENTILATED THAT THIS WILL NOT BE OF AS MUCH CONCERN. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 500 AM THU...PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE WEST...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO OF CONCERN IS LINGERING SMOKE FROM CROATAN FOREST FIRE. GIVEN CURRENT SMOKE TRENDS EXPECT WORST CONDITIONS TO BE LIMITED TO VICINITY OF THE FIRE...WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AWAY FROM CRAVEN COUNTY. THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING OF FIRE CONDITIONS...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ALBEMARLE SOUND AND SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE MIDDLE LEGS. RUC13 SHOWS THAT SOME GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. /LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 500 AM THU...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY SLOWLY DISSIPATING. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN COASTAL WATERS. AS DISCUSSED IN LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FAVORED HPC GUIDANCE/CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST FOR WINDS/SEAS WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...CTC/SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...CTC/SK MARINE...CTC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 .AVIATION... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. STILL...AT LEAST ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. WITH LINGERING FRONT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW... ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/SRN OK AND TX. WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS...RECENT OBS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC...THUS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CIGS ONCE POST FRONTAL SHRA CLEARS TERMINALS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/ UPDATE... MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES A BIT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. DISCUSSION... SO FAR...STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. APPEARS CAPPING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST. ALSO...THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM CDT WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...BUT APPEARS THIS POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS CONFIDENCE OF RECEIVING RAIN IS DECREASING. HOWEVER... MOST LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DEPICTS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 7 AM CDT TIME FRAME ACROSS OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KOKC METRO AREA AFTER 4 AM CDT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MODELS INDICATED DECREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER CAPPING. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY AFTER 1 AM CDT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS... BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 01 TO 02Z WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MANY TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z THURS. BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN AT KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TSRA AND BEHIND FRONT AS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDS IN THROUGH MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/ DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION AROUND 6 OR 7 PM ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING + 16-17 AT DDC/AMA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS. A RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR WEAKENS CONVECTION OUT WEST...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. STORMS/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE OVER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS. MODELS STILL BUILD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS FORTUNATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 30-60 DAYS. THE OFFSHOOT WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 71 87 68 / 10 30 40 20 HOBART OK 92 69 89 68 / 0 30 50 20 WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 94 71 / 0 10 30 20 GAGE OK 91 64 86 60 / 20 40 30 10 PONCA CITY OK 90 68 85 63 / 10 60 40 10 DURANT OK 90 71 92 71 / 20 10 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. THINKING LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE FIRST 3 TO 9 HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NE OK TERMINALS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT MLC AND THE NW AR TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OR A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER OK/AR IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. LAPSE RATES AOA 500MB ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THERE IS A CAP AT AROUND 700MB WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE 10C ON THE OUN SOUNDING. THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT A WAVE WILL HELP WITH LIFT...AND THE 500MB WINDS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT BEST AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS CALLED INTO QUESTION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE 60% POPS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES...THE POP FORECAST WILL NOT BE RAISED ANY HIGHER THAN THE 50-60% WE HAVE GOING. BOTTOM LINE...BASED ON THE NEWEST DATA...THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED THIS EVENING. LACY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ASSOCIATED TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IS AT THE NE OK TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. WILL CARRY PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND TSRA AT BVO/TUL/RVS. PROB30S WILL BE CARRIED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...AS TSRA CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER S AND E. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10KTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE FIRST EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER THIS SUMMER IS LOOMING ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK....WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BEFORE THE HEAT ARRIVES THOUGH...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS THAT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING OUR LAST DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND ALSO OUR LAST TASTE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S FOR AWHILE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT SO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO DO THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...THE CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WILL ONLY GO DOWN WITH TIME AFTER THAT. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA BY MONDAY BUT ANY REAL COOLING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING POSSIBLE HERE. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE HEAT WILL BUILD EVEN MORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR RECORD TERRITORY...PERHAPS AS HOT AS HAS EVER BEEN RECORDED IN JUNE IN SOME PLACES. GENERALLY STAYED NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND WELL ABOVE THE GFS MOS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS EXTREME WITH THE HEAT AS EITHER THE ECMWF OR THE DGEX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 85 68 92 / 50 50 10 10 FSM 71 91 70 95 / 10 40 10 10 MLC 71 88 68 93 / 30 30 10 10 BVO 71 85 63 92 / 60 40 10 10 FYV 66 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10 BYV 67 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10 MKO 71 87 66 93 / 30 50 10 10 MIO 71 86 66 91 / 50 40 10 10 F10 72 87 66 94 / 40 30 10 10 HHW 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 AM...12 NAM GENERATES MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPSTATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MESO MODELS LIKE THE LOCAL WRF AND RAP CONFINE CONVECTION GENERALLY TO THE PREFERRED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSTATE. FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED UP THE POPS OVER THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AS ALL MODELS INDICATE BETTER COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MENTIONABLE POPS TO GENERALLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK SO THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL AGAIN TODAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OTHER GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY...THE AGING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA EARLY FRIDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT DOES. THUS...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT S TO SWLY WINDS AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR ISO TO SCAT TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WITH A WEAKER MID LVL INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH I STILL DONT EXPECT ANY TS TO BECOME SVR...A FEW MIGHT COME CLOSE IF THE CAP IS EASILY BROKEN. HIGH TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH THE INCREASED INSOLATION AND PERSISTENT SLY FLOW. LOWS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD ALSO BE A DEGREE OR 2 WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH VALUES AROUND 70 FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS FRI AFTN...WITH CHC SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE. CONVECTION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STALLED ALONG THE S CWA SAT EXPECT CHC POPS TO REDEVELOP WITH HEATING IN THE AFTN...PRIMARILY ALONG AND S OF I-85 STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME STORMS. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE AVG. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER TROF OVER THE E US THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SUN AND MON AFTNS AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABLILITY AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WEAK FRONT MEANDERING OVER THE AREA...TO SUPPORT LOW END COVERAGE. MODELS VARY WITH DETAILS BUT ALL KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE S OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH S OF THE CWA ON TUE BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAVE TUE DRY FOR NOW BUT LATE DAY CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING OVER THE MTNS FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS WED AFTN. LOOK FOR ABOVE AVG TEMPS THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN ABOUT 11 AND 13Z. I WAS ANTICIPATING EARLIER THAT KAVL WOULD GO DOWN TO IFR BY NOW BUT THE SITE HAS BEEN REPORTING VFR SO FAR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY S TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON WITH CALM CONDITIONS RETURNING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. STILL FORECASTING A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE NC MTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NWLY DIRECTION. AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RB NEAR TERM...LG SHORT TERM...RB LONG TERM...RB AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN WY LATE THIS AFTN...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD TONIGHT. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARBER LONG TERM....CARPENTER AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
219 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .UPDATE... POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ALLOWING A DELAYED BUT NOTABLE WARM UP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND MODERATE TO DEEP CUMULUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/FORECAST AREA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE... BUT THE STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE DEPICTED AROUND 18Z...WHICH HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED POPS FROM THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ AVIATION... POST FRONTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KAMA... WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KGUY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT BACKING WINDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. KB FIRE WEATHER... UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 10/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .AVIATION... POST FRONTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KAMA... WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KGUY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT BACKING WINDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ UPDATE... POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING...AND ARE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND REDUCED AFTERNOON MAXIMA A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU WRF-NAM...SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.....SO CURRENT POPS REMAIN VALID. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. KB FIRE WEATHER... UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .UPDATE... POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING...AND ARE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND REDUCED AFTERNOON MAXIMA A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU WRF-NAM...SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.....SO CURRENT POPS REMAIN VALID. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ AVIATION... MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE PANHANDLES TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. KB FIRE WEATHER... UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 10/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .UPDATE... 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO POINT TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY 19Z IN VERY MOIST AIR WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT LYING NEAR A MORTON TO PLAINVIEW TO WELLINGTON LINE AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ARE IN THE 60S WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE TRYING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. SO THE SET UP SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE MORNING MODEL SUITE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE DESERT SW. STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH MOST INDICATIONS SUGGESTING A S TO SW MOVEMENT ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MEANWHILE PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MLCAPE FROM 1250 TO 1750 J/KG FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. GIVEN MODERATE CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR WOULD EXPECT MULTICELL CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY SOME LINEAR ORIENTATION INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A PULSE-TYPE LIFE CYCLE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EARLIEST STORMS...WITH POSSIBLY A GREATER THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT AND PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. OVERALL THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES ATTM. SKY COVER GRID A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY COME INTO LINE AS CUMULUS FIELD FILLS IN AND STORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IF OR WHEN THEY MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO GROUPS HOWEVER THIS REFLECTS WHAT THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER-GENERATED FORECAST SHOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE. EXPECT TAFS TO BE AMENDED AS MORNING DATA STARTS TO COME OUT AND HOPEFULLY GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.. JORDAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ SHORT TERM... A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE 27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE. COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES. FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT. JORDAN LONG TERM... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0 TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0 PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0 LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0 LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0 DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0 BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0 CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0 SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0 ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IF OR WHEN THEY MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO GROUPS HOWEVER THIS REFLECTS WHAT THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER-GENERATED FORECAST SHOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE. EXPECT TAFS TO BE AMENDED AS MORNING DATA STARTS TO COME OUT AND HOPEFULLY GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.. JORDAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ SHORT TERM... A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE 27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE. COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES. FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT. JORDAN LONG TERM... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0 TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0 PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0 LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0 LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0 DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0 BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0 CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0 SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0 ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
530 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .AVIATION... MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE PANHANDLES TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/ DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. KB FIRE WEATHER... UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 15/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. KB && .FIRE WEATHER... UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 81 64 92 67 97 / 30 10 5 5 0 BEAVER OK 83 63 94 70 101 / 20 5 5 5 0 BOISE CITY OK 79 62 93 67 100 / 20 10 5 5 5 BORGER TX 82 68 94 71 100 / 30 10 5 5 0 BOYS RANCH TX 82 66 96 70 101 / 30 10 5 5 0 CANYON TX 81 64 93 66 96 / 40 10 5 5 0 CLARENDON TX 81 67 91 68 95 / 40 10 5 5 0 DALHART TX 79 62 93 65 98 / 20 10 5 5 0 GUYMON OK 81 64 95 70 100 / 20 5 5 5 0 HEREFORD TX 81 63 92 65 95 / 30 10 5 5 0 LIPSCOMB TX 83 63 92 69 97 / 30 5 5 5 0 PAMPA TX 81 65 90 68 97 / 40 10 5 5 0 SHAMROCK TX 81 67 92 69 95 / 40 10 5 5 0 WELLINGTON TX 84 69 94 69 97 / 40 10 5 5 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 15/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SHORT TERM... A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE 27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE. COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES. FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT. JORDAN && .LONG TERM... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0 TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0 PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0 LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0 LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0 DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0 BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0 CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0 SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0 ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND SE LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FLATTENED UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE CU LOOKS RATHER AGITATED OVER MINNESOTA WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE FORMING...SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE JUST WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE FROM LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SATURATION OR INSTABILITY FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO A DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 73-74F ELSEWHERE WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 15-16Z OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ML CAPES OF 600 J/KG AND INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE BL SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPES ARE RATHER SKINNY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...SO THINK WILL ONLY MENTION DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE HWO. SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST AFTER 21Z AS FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO MICHIGAN. DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVES BY AND A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM CANADA. PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES. && .AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO BKN CIGS...POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR FOR A COUPLE HOURS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS IMPACTING NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MPC && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MPC/RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1218 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIGHTING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH FURTHER HEATING...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND FGEN ARE ALSO SPREADING OVER THE FRONT TO AID IN THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ML CAPES WILL BE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH A DECENT WIND FIELD AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS BETWEEN 30-35KTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE STORMS ARRIVE. INSTABILITY DOES DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...PERHAPS TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY ENTER THE FOX VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PWATS OF 1.80 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL. SHOULD SEE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER 09Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO MOVE IN IN ITS WAKE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DEFINITELY GOOD ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY. NOT SURE ABOUT A TRIGGER FOR SHOWER POSSIBILITIES...BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD INTERACT WITH 300-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE OVER N-C WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR NOW BUT MENTION POSSIBILITY TO THE NEXT SHIFT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A NICE SEASONABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A REFRESHING HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MORE JET ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG SURFACE HIGH THEN SHOULD DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A LATE SEASON FROST IN THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION YET IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK YET DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT... WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SCT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN WI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY...AND MAY TRIGGER SCT SHRA AT THE RHI TAF SITE. TSK && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE STORMS THIS EVENING...POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CONVECTION HAS BUBBLED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST RUNNING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHWEST IA. GOOD CONVERGENCE NEAR...BUT MOSTLY POST THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A STRONG THERMAL BAND IN THE LOW LAYERS. ABOUT 1000 OR SO J/KG OF MLCAPE AROUND THE FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE WILL BE A SEVERE RISK IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY LATE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE ON THAT IN THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE...IN THE REGION OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. CAPE MUCH LESS IN THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE A BIT BETTER. COULD BE SOME SEVERE RISK IN THIS AREA...BUT THINK THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE AROUND THE FRONT. FOR THU/FRI...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT...WITH THE 20.12Z NAM AND GFS HINTING AT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY SEEMS A BIT STRONGER. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTH/EAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT A LOT...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED VIA RUC SOUNDINGS AND RH PLOTS THAT SOME SHRA/TS COULD BE GENERATED IN THIS AREA. WILL ADD SMALL CHANCES FOR THU AND CONTINUE THE FRI CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SD/NEB FRI NIGHT/SAT. THIS STORM COMPLEX AND RESULTING MCV WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS IA/MN/WI ON SAT...BRINGING A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIDE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE EC LOOKS MORE LIKE A MIX OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME LESS HUMID AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH HOW LONG TO LINGER THE SAT SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE EC WOULD BRING IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE THE GFS WOULD HANG IT AROUND ON SUNDAY. GEM IS A BIT QUICKER...ALA THE EC. WILL STEER TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME LEAN ON THE QUICKER EC/GEM. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR MON-WED WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. MOSTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON AT THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED TO END AT KRST BETWEEN 06Z-07Z AND 08Z AT KLSE. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES AND IF ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP. STILL QUITE A FEW MID CLOUDS BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA BUT BACK EDGE HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE. DO FEEL THERE MAYBE ENOUGH BREAKS AT KRST TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME FOG. NOT AS CONFIDENCE AT KLSE AS CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LATER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT 240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT TONIGHT. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP NORTHEAST...THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH OVERALL 1/2 TO 1 INCH TOTALS MORE LIKELY. SOME BASINS ARE STILL WET AND/OR HAVE RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH... INCLUDING THE ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...AND MISSISSIPPI. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. LATEST RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE THE MISSISSIPPI WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AGAIN AT WABASHA ON WED...WHICH MEANS OTHER SITES ALONG THE BIG MUDDY WILL REACH HEIGHTS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN JUST LAST WEEK. CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/ TO HEIGHTEN THE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF THE SITUATION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...RABERDING HYDROLOGY....MW/RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 .UPDATE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF WI AND IOWA. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELEVATED AROUND 500 J/KG BEHIND THE FRONT. SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS THE MAIN TRIGGER BUT MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THIS AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT CROSSES SRN WI. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL WEAKENING THAT OCCURS LATE AT NIGHT. THE LATEST 4KM HRRR MODEL AND LOCAL 4 KM WRF MODEL DUE SHOW A WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 06Z. HIGH POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF SE WI STILL LOOK GOOD AS WELL AS THE CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SE WI WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO BEGIN IN MADISON IS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA FROM 07Z THROUGH 12Z THU. && AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR KMSN FROM 05Z-09Z WITH THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SE WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE THE TSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT. A DRY WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THU. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/ TONIGHT/TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MISS OUT ON THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK AND BEST 500MB PVA NORTH OF THE CWA ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW DIMINISHING FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALOFT AS IT CROSSES WISCONSIN...SO THINK PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE WEST. 12Z MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY VORT MAX LAGGING BEHIND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND CROSSING THE MKX CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT MIDLEVELS ARE DRY BY THIS TIME SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WITH THE FRONT PASSING EARLY IN THE DAY MUCH MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH PERFORMED WELL JUST BEFORE THE WARM SPELL BEGAN AS A BASIS AND THEN ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON MODEL 925MB TEMPS AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING PROFILE. ALSO WILL EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S MOST PLACES. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WORK WITH THROUGH...SO MAINLY EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE...BUT OVERALL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH HELPING TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE DAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A WEAK WAVE OR TWO MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIME PERIOD FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES...SO JUST KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS VERY PLEASANT...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... CURRENT TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT STILL ON TRACK...WITH LATEST MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT ROLLS THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT MSN BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES UES/MKE/ENW. VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHERE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER THAT IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR. WILL REFLECT THIS IN TEMPO GROUP FOR THE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINIMUM CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO SHORTEN THE DURATION OF THE ADVISORY...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO PREVIOUS SHIFT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEHRING TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WIMBERLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF POTENT TROUGHING ARRIVING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND FINALLY BACK INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NE STATES/ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OF MOST INTEREST TO OUR FORECAST IS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SEEN CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOESN`T GET MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A PW VALUES JUST SHY OF 2.5". FOR LATE JUNE THIS NUMBER IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF VALUES. AT THE SURFACE...OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS THIS SURFACE FEATURE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 2. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES IS NOT OVERLY TIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE FORECAST DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PICTURE OF THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE/SE OF THE MS DELTA. THEREAFTER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE UNTIL LATE MONDAY BEFORE BEING NUDGED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MISSES THIS ENERGY AND BEGINS TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS DURING MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE OF LITTLE HELP WITH A SPLIT OF MEMBERS HEADING EAST AND WEST...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN LEANS TOWARD A WESTWARD DRIFT BY LATER MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...FORECAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WILL FEATURE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF GUIDANCE...AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD A ECMWF/SREF BLEND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. TODAY...WITH THE VERY HIGH VALUES OF COLUMN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE LOW...AND DIURNAL HEATING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH. FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL FEATURE LESS COVERAGE OF GENERALLY SCT LIGHTER SHOWERS...AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE WE GET SOME HEATING THOUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH...HOWEVER WITH A PW CLOSE TO 2.5"...POCKETS OF LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. LOTS OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL LIMITED HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY TO THE 80S. WAVE MODELS SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TO AT LEAST A MODERATE LEVEL. THIS ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL TO OUR WEST IN A POSITION THAT WILL FAVOR BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF. BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND ZONES. SIMILAR TO TODAY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO FILL IN FURTHER INLAND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF BANDS ORIENT THEMSELVES TO FAVOR TRAINING OF CELLS. MONDAY...AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS NORTH AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF/SREF QPF. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...I HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY AND JUST THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY. FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING WELL TO THE WEST...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEATING. BY WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN RESULTING IN NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MORNINGS SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY...FOLLOWED BY A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE EVENINGS WILL START OFF WITH ISOLATED STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE DRY. && .AVIATION... SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PGD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND LIKELY REMAIN AT THESE ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 76 84 77 / 80 80 80 70 FMY 86 75 86 76 / 90 80 80 60 GIF 87 73 84 74 / 80 70 80 60 SRQ 87 76 86 77 / 90 80 80 70 BKV 87 73 85 73 / 80 80 80 70 SPG 86 77 85 79 / 80 80 80 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE- MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS LATER TODAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THESE FEATURES MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/WDLY SCTD STORMS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING SO WILL MENTION. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ZONES AND GRIDS UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419. UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END AT 4Z. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA. H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A ROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE. MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES CAUSING THIS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: SATURDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FS SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER AVIATION...JRM CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH H85 DEWPOINTS NEAR 15C, STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. && .UPDATE... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55 MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34 CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR 100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0 P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RUTHI SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON SHORT TERM...KRUSE LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...JJOHNSON FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END AT 4Z. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA. H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A ROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE. MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES CAUSING THIS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: SATURDAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JRM SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER AVIATION...JRM CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55 MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34 CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR 100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0 P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RUTHI SHORT TERM...KRUSE LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...JJOHNSON FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
301 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK... AS A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE CONTINENT. PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING TO OUR WEST SLIDES EAST. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE DEPRESSED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. OVERALL... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS THROUGH MIDWEEK... THEN DIFFER A BIT IN THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE-SQUASHING SHORTWAVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... AND WILL THEN STICK CLOSER TO THE GOING FORECAST AND LATEST ECMWF FOR THE LATER PERIODS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... AND GIVEN THE STOUTNESS OF THE UPPER RIDGE PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE PLAINS... WHERE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS INTERACTING WITH GOOD MUCAPE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE. AN ARM OF SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY LINES UP WELL WITH LOWER CPD VALUES AND ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE... AND ALSO HAS 250-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH WHICH TO WORK BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. THINGS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY... WHILE REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM MCS SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER... DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA... SINCE THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND BETTER MOISTURE NEVER REALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN TO OUR NORTH IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ALTHOUGH THE MAIN KICKER FOR TONIGHT/S SECONDARY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE IS THE MORE ROBUST WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH... IT WILL STILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT/TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... AND DRIVE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. KEPT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THOUGH MOST OF TONIGHT GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRYING TO WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY... THEN THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FOCUS OF THE TWO FEATURES. BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AND REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL THEN SURGE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER OUR AREA. LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR NOW... WHEN SOME ARE INTRODUCED OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED EARLIER COINCIDENT WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE GUIDANCE IS TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN RESPONSE TO THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA... BUT SHOULD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVE WITH THE WARMER AIR... WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME PCPN GET WRUNG OUT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE WARMEST OF AIR ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS... WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER EVOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW. IN ADDITION... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUALLY WORK TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE... WHICH WILL SLOW THE OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THINGS... MUCH LIKE WE SAW AT THE START OF THIS PAST WEEK. THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HANDLE SUCH THINGS VERY WELL... WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN NOT ONLY SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF... BUT ALSO THE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW... INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS THAT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY THAT POINT IN TIME. ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THINGS... RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK... WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE 90 CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND THE CLOUDINESS IT COULD CREATE FOR US... AS WELL AS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES... DIDN/T GO NEARLY AS ADIABATIC MIXING MIGHT SUGGEST. AS WE GET NEARER IN TIME SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST HIGHS WILL CERTAINLY BE MADE... AND WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE UPWARD UNLESS PCPN OR SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN/EC SD HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SE...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SC MN. HOWEVER...-SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHRA NEAR RWF/AXN BETWEEN 6-12Z. CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS STC/RNH/MSP AS THE LATEST RAP HAS MORE DEVELOPMENT AFT 6Z ACROSS CENTRAL MN...EXTENDING SE TOWARD MSP. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH AT THESE PLACES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA BY 12Z. RNH/EAU...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON TSRA/SHRA UNTIL AFT 12Z. WNDS WILL BECOME SE/ESE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO GUSTS DURING THE MORNING. MSP...SHRA/TSRA IN EC SD/SW MN WILL HOLD IN THIS AREA THRU 9Z. DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AFT 9Z...SO WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE VCSH BY 9Z. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ATTM BASED ON THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...OR AT LEAST UNTIL AFT 12-15Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE SE TOWARD MSP BY 12Z. MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. OUTLOOK... .SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .SUNDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ /JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED .DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIES JUST SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS AND STRETCHES BACK THROUGH MEAGHER COUNTY. HRRR PRODUCT A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AS IT DEPICTS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AS STAYING TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. EMANUEL && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0445Z. BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW SHORT-LIVED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY GO. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED MID-/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW EVE MAINLY FROM KGTF TO KCTB WITH CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS VCNTY KCTB AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WARANAUSKAS && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA. CONVECTION TODAY WAS LIMITED BY A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MINOR DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS SATURDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY CONVECTIVE SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP THUS ENDING MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE ZONES UNDERNEATH MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO THE WEST. THE TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND BRING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE DECREASING TO THE EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL HAVE RATHER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM THE WEST WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ZELZER && .FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-TEENS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN ARE MID-SLOPE AND VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND HELENA THROUGH BROADWATER AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES TO NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY (ESSENTIALLY ALL OF FIRE ZONE 118 AND PARTS OF FIRE ZONE 116). DISCUSSION WITH FIRE MANAGERS INDICATE THAT FUEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT FUEL TYPES IS ALREADY NEAR-CRITICAL BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER FUELS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FIRE WEATHER WATCH CRITERIA AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ON SUN/MON...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WEEKEND SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE WINDS AND UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS NEEDED. WARANAUSKAS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 78 56 88 / 20 20 20 10 CTB 54 70 54 78 / 40 60 70 20 HLN 56 84 55 91 / 10 20 20 10 BZN 48 86 50 92 / 10 10 10 0 WEY 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 50 83 50 87 / 10 0 10 10 HVR 56 78 58 89 / 30 30 20 10 LWT 52 78 55 86 / 10 10 20 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMANUEL/GUSTAFSON LONG TERM...ZELZER AVIATION...BLANK WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
136 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE...A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 60 MPH WELL BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/ AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR 15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE 17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT. SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039- 040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082. KS...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENTAND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR 15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE 17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT. SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE WATCH AND SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES. LOW LEVEL JET IS AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED AS MOST STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE ELEVATED. && AVIATION...06Z TAFS SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WFO UNR LONG TERM....WFO UNR AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN WY LATE THIS AFTN...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD TONIGHT. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WFO UNR LONG TERM....WFO UNR AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue through early Saturday morning. Additional locally heavy rain can be expected. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: Clearing over eastern WA and the Panhandle is allowing temperatures to finally warm into the 80s. Coupled with the upper 40s to lower 50s dew points, the atmosphere should destabilize rather nicely. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late this afteroon. Convection has started to fire in the Clearwater Mtns, similar to the HRRR forecast. Based on this I have a bit more confidence in the HRRR, and so we`re looking at three potential areas of convection. The first is over the Clearwaters which should continue to fire and propagate northward through the ID Panhandle this evening. The second is forecast on the back end of the clouds moving into the Okanogan Highlands. The convection would move northwest into the north Cascades. The third area of convection would be over northeast OR ahead of the main cloud band moving into the area this evening. This convection would track along the ID/WA border area this evening. CAPE values are certainly supportive of moderate-sized hail. 0-6km shear is good, but not great. Enough to keep the storms from being pulse in nature but not sure there`s enough to make supercells. Heavy rain is still possible in the Cascades. But since the storms should be moving at a decent speed and this area hasn`t had a lot of rain recently I`m thinking that the flash flood threat is minimal. RJ Saturday through Monday: Closed low will remain off the Oregon coast through Monday. Models are in good agreement of pieces of energy ejecting from the low and moving through the forecast area. This will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Saturday is the best day for more widespread showers across the region. Instability parameters such as CAPE, LI and 0-6 km shear show very favorable conditions for thunderstorm development Saturday. The best area of instability will stretch up the Idaho Panhandle from Shoshone county north to the Canadian border and bending back toward the northeast mountains of WA. Kept the likely thunderstorm wording for the afternoon for these locations and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Elsewhere, slight chance exists across the basin, with a chance of thunder along the Cascades and Spokane/Palouse, Okanogan areas. Sunday and Monday there is still a threat of showers, but there is less moisture to work with and the axis of instability is further east. The best area of showers and thunderstorms will be across northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. With less moisture there is also the possibility of less cloud cover, and with less cloud cover, we could actually warm to near or slightly above average temperatures. /Nisbet Monday night through Friday: The persistent upper-low currently off the WA coast will lift to the northeast through the region bringing one last round of heavier precipitation before relatively drier conditions settle in. Models are in decent agreement that the low will lift E/NE through the area but still illustrate subtle differences on timing, strength, and how much of its energy pinches off and lingers over the region on Wed...yet they have come into much better agreement then runs 24 hours ago. Following the passage of the low pressure system, the general consensus amongst the models is to strengthen a ridge of high pressure over the Pac NW yielding mostly dry conditions for most locations. I use mostly dry wording due to each model depicting several very small midlevel impulses drifting under the ridge which could lead to localized areas of deeper instability and chance for afternoon showers/thunderstorms. We have utilized a blend of the EC/GFS for the Monday night/Tuesday period and trend toward their ensemble means thereafter. This resulted in Monday night and Tuesday being the wettest days of the period with models showing upwards of a quarter to three quarters of an inch (heavier in thunderstorms) possible through Tuesday night. The slower and more negatively tilted EC spreads precipitation across all locations in this period while the quicker GFS focuses more on the eastern third of WA and ID Panhandle...in response to developing westerly flow in the lee of the Cascades. The precipitation threat shifts toward the Canadian border for Tuesday night and potentially into Wednesday afternoon (per slower EC). By Wednesday night through Friday, upper-level ridging will be the more dominate weather feature leading to a warming and drying trend at most locations. As mentioned above, we will likely be monitoring a few midlevel small-scale circulations each capable of a introducing a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Given how far out these events are and lack of QPF in the models, the forecast indicates dry conditions based on the large scale subsidence under the ridge but could may need to be adjusted over small areas when and where these circulations track. Temperatures will be cooling below normal on Wednesday with abundant cloud cover and rainfall then begin a slow warming trend each day returning near to above normal by Friday. SB && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Attempted to time the end of the showers and thunderstorms based on radar and rapid update guidance. KLWS should be done with the thunder by 08Z, then the Spokane area by 09Z. Further west showers will be ending around the same time. With all the moisture left behind, some low clouds will linger in the Spokane area but not expecting any cieling or visibility issues at the terminals. Redevelopment is forecast for Saturday afternoon, with showers and isolated thunderstorms over extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. JL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 56 74 53 75 50 79 / 90 70 60 20 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 57 73 53 76 50 80 / 90 80 70 20 10 10 Pullman 53 71 49 75 49 77 / 80 70 60 10 10 10 Lewiston 61 80 55 83 54 83 / 70 60 40 10 10 10 Colville 58 76 52 78 49 85 / 90 80 70 40 10 10 Sandpoint 55 73 52 73 48 79 / 90 90 80 40 20 20 Kellogg 54 71 50 77 48 79 / 90 80 70 40 20 20 Moses Lake 58 79 53 80 53 82 / 70 50 20 10 0 10 Wenatchee 59 74 51 77 52 79 / 70 60 30 10 0 10 Omak 59 76 50 78 48 83 / 90 70 50 20 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/... AS OF 1025 AM...RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING PLACE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER JUST ABOUT EVERY PEAK IN THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD POOL WITH H500 TEMPS ANALYZED BY RUC AT -19C MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AREA. COLDEST UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALY FORECAST AREA AND SO BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS NORTH. HOWEVER...ALBANY 12Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWED ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATER TODAY AROUND MAX HEATING THAT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER ANY PART OF THE AREA. WHILE A ROGUE SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MOST STORMS WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SOME SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THINGS LOOKS TO QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS COLD POOL MOVES EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS AND SOME 12 NAM DATA. PREVIOUS... A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS STILL SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR REGION. SOME NEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TODAY ALONG THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG THE SECONDARY SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY NOW...AND SOME OF THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE. SO...EASTERN AREAS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF CLOUD COVER MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. CLOUD SHIELD IS MAKING PROGRESS EAST. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE OF COOLING AND DRYING TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SOME 70S COOLER AREAS SUCH AS HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH 21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK... SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG. SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA. TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...SND/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
827 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102 IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID- DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM +17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS AND FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DELIVER VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: TODAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DDT SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...FS CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... UPDATE TO ZFP AND WRKAFP FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME WEAK VORTICITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. CHECKING THE NEW WRF SOUNDING FOR HARLOWTON...CIN WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 50 J/KG BY 00Z. LOW TO MID-LEVEL E FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THIS AREA...AND THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT THE GOING POPS ALONE. THE 12Z WRF AND LATEST HRRR KEPT THE REGION DRY INTO THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY FLOW WAS LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... EXPECT VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY. THE LONGER THE FRONT HOLDS OFF THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AND WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING COULD SEE AREAS FROM BILLINGS EAST WELL INTO THE 100S IF FRONT HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOKS WEAK THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH EARLY WEEK MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO WARM TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION AND LATER WEEK WINDS DOWNSLOPING DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE 80S. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY SATURDAY FOR TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. GRASS FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE GREENNESS DATA SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 70 TO 85 PERCENT OF THE GRASS ALREADY CURED OUT. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF 90-100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GRASSES WILL ONLY GET DRIER. LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT AND DON`T SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADD LIGHTNING STARTS...BUT WITH FOURTH OF JULY APPROACHING FIREWORKS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR FIRE STARTS IN THE NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE CONCERN IN HWO AND GRAPHIC AND WILL CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH LATER SHIFTS. CHAMBERS && .AVIATION... SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH AN MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A KLVM-KLWT LINE. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 088 061/099 066/099 068/096 059/088 059/084 060/085 0/U 10/U 01/B 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T LVM 087 051/095 057/093 059/088 050/083 050/081 050/081 1/U 10/N 01/U 22/T 20/U 01/U 12/T HDN 091 057/101 062/101 065/099 056/090 057/086 057/086 0/U 10/G 01/G 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T MLS 090 062/097 068/102 070/100 062/090 061/086 061/085 1/U 10/U 01/G 23/T 31/U 12/T 22/T 4BQ 089 061/094 067/100 069/099 061/090 060/085 060/085 1/U 10/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 12/T 12/T BHK 084 060/087 064/096 067/098 061/089 059/083 058/082 1/N 10/N 02/T 22/T 21/U 12/T 22/T SHR 093 056/098 062/096 064/095 056/087 055/082 054/082 0/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
953 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 950 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...I STILL TOPPED THEM IN 40-50-ISH RANGE FOR ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES WHERE PWAT WILL BE NEAR AN INCH. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT KELM. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR. SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92. THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35 POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. -SMITH TONIGHT: EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE L/W TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY WE`LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE AIRMASS ASSOC WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER... AS INDICATED BY CRASHING THICKNESS AND PWAT VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT... SUPPORTING HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW 60S. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT (0.25-0.4IN / DAY) AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (10-15M /DAY)...THUS EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK NW FLOW PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BACK UP TO 90 BY THURSDAY AND THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASING PWAT...WILL BRING POPS TO NEAR-CLIMO VALUES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) BY FRIDAY FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH DON`T EXPECT MUCH BEYOND ISOLATED ACTIVITY GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISMS. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT FOR NOW...WHATEVER COMES OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC WEATHER AS THE CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT EASTWARD OVER TIME KEEP IT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY... SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH SHORT TERM...BSD/NP LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1044 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT THROUGH 00 UTC TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE MOVED INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BEMIDJI TO FARGO. REMOVED ALL POPS THROUGH 18 UTC EXCEPT IN THIS AREA WHERE A STRAY HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAY FALL. 15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM HALLOCK TO COOPERSTOWN TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POOLING ALONG BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH OF A CAP...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF AN 850 HPA JET IS ABSENT. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM REMAINS NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER...BUT 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS. SPC PAINTS 5 PERCENT HAIL THRESHOLD ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 UTC ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT TIMING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SPATIAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION... LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES. MOST RECENT MODELS HAVE ALL INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE WYO ALTHOUGH QPF IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST. ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SW HALF OF FA GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION AND ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. MAIN UPPER SUPPORT TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE LARGE MCS ALONG SD/NE BORDER AREA LIKELY INTERCEPTING DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN FA THIS AM AND WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES GREATER THAN AN INCH AND FAVORABLE SHEAR EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE MORNING. FARTHER NORTH AIRMASS MORE STABLE SO WILL CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY SOUTH HALF OF FA. LATER TODAY SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH FAVORED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS SE. FAVORED INSTABILITY/CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA HOWEVER WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTH ANY WHERE ALONG BOUNDARY HAS SOME POTENTIAL. SOLAR WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY SO DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL UNSURE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD LIKELY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. BOUNDARY EXITS FA TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. BASED ON BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL LIMIT POPS LATER TONIGHT TO FAR EASTERN FA. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH COLUMN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR DOES MOVE IN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY FOR PLENTY OF SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PHASES BACK UP WITH THE ECMWF. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THU. STABILITY DECREASES ON TUESDAY HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LOWER POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. ECMWF KEEP UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAPPED ATMOSPHERE YET ON THU. WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOME THU. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ ROGERS/DK/VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/ SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/ MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO 65. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08 && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BOARDER WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING MAY BE HAMPERED SOME TODAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR CONFIDENCE REASONS...IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS UNABLE TO MIX OUT TODAY. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL. WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS AND SOME 12 NAM DATA. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD POOL HAS PRODUCED +TSRA/-SHRA OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KGFL HAS HAD THUNDERSTORM AROUND 17Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 7KT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BT MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTSON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG. SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS TSRA. TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA. THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL. WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS AND SOME 12 NAM DATA. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH 21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK... SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG. SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA. TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA/SND SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING HAVE NOW MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (OFB) HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY...THEN NORTHWARD TO EAST OF MARYSVILLE. NORTHEAST OF THIS OFB...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. WHILE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE OFB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KS. THOUGH THE HRRR AND ARW DID SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS ALONG THE NE BORDER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OFB ALONG THE NE BORDER. I INSERTED 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS BROWN...NEMAHA...JACKSON AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN CASE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE TO THE KS BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE C RANGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 102 TO 104 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ATTM...I ONLY HAVE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 103 DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...THEN HEAT INDICES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. GARGAN LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT. ...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN EXPECTED TO FORCE A HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ANY MODIFYING OR COOLING INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST WITH EAST WINDS MON INTO TUES YET HIGH HEIGHTS WILL YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH MON/TUES. WIDE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MON/TUES AND PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN COOL BIAS OF GFS BASED NUMBERS. HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDS INTO THURS AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND 100 AND PERHAPS 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA WITH AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS. && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF KTOP AND KFOE BY 19Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS TO 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 21 TO 28 KTS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. GARGAN && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT 100 DEGREES NEAR KIT CARSON COLORADO. 15Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES AND STILL MAINTAINS AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 105 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO 110-112 FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPS AND RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 105-107 DEGREES. PER COORDINATION WITH DDC AND GID FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM CDT THROUGH 8 PM CDT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102 IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID- DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM +17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS AND FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 FOR KGLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 00Z. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD THE TERMINAL. FOR KMCK SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012 RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES: TODAY... GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936) HILL CITY....107 IN 1952 MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954 BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954 YUMA.........107 TRIBUNE......105 COLBY........105 SUNDAY... GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971 HILL CITY....108 IN 1971 MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943 BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954 YUMA.........103 TRIBUNE......107 COLBY........107 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-015-016-029. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...007 SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...007 CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...THEN A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS ONTARIO FROM NEAR YQK THEN DROPPING INTO NODAK AND FAR NW CORNER MN. ONE AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS DVLPG ACROSS ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER E-W BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NODAK. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF THE NODAK AREA ALLOWING IT TO EXPAND SE THIS EVE/TNGHT INTO CNTRL MN/WC WI AHD OF UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO/NE MN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. CDFNT DROPS INTO N MN THIS EVENING AND THEN PICKS UP SPEED LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR IA BORDER BY 12Z. NICE DRY AIRMASS PUSHES INTO AREA IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS 1025 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING INTO THE 40S MAINLY ACROSS WI CWA WITH NE DRY NE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WORK BACK INTO AREA. VERY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AOA 590 DM INTO SW MN. SHUD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WC MN. MID LEVEL TEMPS PRETTY WARM WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROF MOVING THRU BRING A BIT COOLER AIRMASS INTO AREA. COOLER WNW FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR BALANCE OF FORECAST WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WARM FRONT...BUT ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ORIGINATING OUT OF VFR CEILINGS. WI AIRPORTS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. SOME OF THE WEATHER MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE SHOWING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND THERE ARE IN FACT A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN FAR WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THE TAF SITES GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE MODELS AND ALSO SIMPLY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IF WE WERE GETTING OUR HAD MUCH MORE RAIN . KMSP...NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS WITH CIGS/VIS HOLDING NEAR 10000FT. ALREADY SEEING A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. OUTLOOK... .SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOON UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN GENERAL...HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK APPEARS TO FEATURE SOMEWHAT DRAMATIC CHANGES AS CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A FLAT AND WARM RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THAT CNY/NEPA WILL BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MINOR IMPULSES ARE LIKELY TO TRANSIT THE AREA AT ANY TIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL DRYING IN THE MEAN RH FIELDS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND WILL REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TANDEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A 1-2 SD ANOMALOUS WARMING DEVELOPING IN THE THERMAL FIELDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM MOS/HPC GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHILE DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE 90 AGAIN. LASTLY...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS. HPC/TPC LEANING WITH THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO REAL EFFECT TO US SHOWING UP DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VCNTY OF KRME THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELDS ACROSS CNY AND NEPA THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CI OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING FOG SEEMS LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY KELM IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD. FOG ALSO PSBL AT KRME DUE TO HVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY ONLY MVFR. FOG CHECKLIST PARAMETERS ARE INCONCLUSIVE AT KELM FOR FOG REDUCING CONDITIONS TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS...BUT HISTORIC CASES IN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SUGGEST PREVAILING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS POSSIBLE. LOW CHC THAT STATION WILL LOCK IN FOR SVRL HOURS...BUT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ON SUNDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CIGS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SW AROUND 5 KTS SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA. MON...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA. TUES...VFR. CHC SHRA. WEDS - THUR...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1215 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOON UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT KELM. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR. SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1205 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOON UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTIES AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT XPCTG SHWRS THERE. OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE. SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE. MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW... WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM UPDATE... VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT KELM. OUTLOOK... EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR. SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... THIS EVENING... SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT... STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. SUNDAY... A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY IN ERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED PUSH OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT... AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. EXPECT RESIDUAL DAYTIME CONVECTION TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING... LIKELY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOLDING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RECOVERING SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE NAM HOLDS AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES NOSING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ALONG WITH PW VALUES OVER 150% OF NORMAL. WITH THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BASED ON THE MEAN STEERING FLOW FROM THE WNW... STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DURING THE NIGHT... AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESSES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST... WE MAY SEE PERSISTENT SLOW-MOVING OR EVEN BACKBUILDING ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST... THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS QUITE HIGH... AND A SHROUD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING FROM SUCH ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF RALEIGH IN THE EVENING... DECREASING A BIT AND BECOMING SUPPRESSED IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NC LATE. WARM LOWS OF 69-73. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN THE EASTERN STATES... OUR WIND FIELDS IMPROVE WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM`S DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 KTS... AND MLCAPE (PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GSO) INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG WITH 30-50 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE 100+ KT JET CORE CENTERED OVER MI NOSING TOWARD NC) MAXIMIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WILL K-INDEX VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON... POTENTIALLY BECOMING ORGANIZED FROM NE TO SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT... HEADING TOWARD THE ESE OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS... AND MODEL-INDICATED CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUGGESTS A RISK OF HAIL AS WELL. GOOD HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH UP HIGHS TO 89-93. LOWS 62 NORTHWEST TO 68 SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT EASES TO THE SSE INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY... THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...SMITH CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... THIS EVENING... SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT... STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. SUNDAY... A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY... THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...SMITH CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92. THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35 POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. -SMITH TONIGHT: EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY... THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH SHORT TERM...BSD/NP LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...SMITH CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 SATURDAY... DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92. THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35 POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. -SMITH TONIGHT: EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY... FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20 METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C... THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP RECORDS.) A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY... SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET: JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)-- RDU: 101 (1945) GSO: 99 (1959) FAY: 105 (1931) JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)-- RDU: 102 (1959) GSO: 101 (1959) FAY: 101 (1959) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH SHORT TERM...BSD/NP LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...BSD CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL A BLENDED SOLUTION. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A MAXIMUM IN THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. THESE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO CARRINGTON TO BISMARCK. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND AND BEGINNING TO SEE MORE PRONOUNCED CU DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL NEED FORCING ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM IS STILL NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS APPROACHING 50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR STILL SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN +18 AND +22 C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...BUT CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...COOLING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SAT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY FRI FOR SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...BUT EVEN THEN IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION... LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SUNDAY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ ROGERS/DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/ SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS EXITED THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SEEING SOME LOW BASED MVFR CU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT THESE BASES SHOULD BECOME HIGHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT DEALS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL. NAM AND GFS NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG POTENTIAL. WE ARE MIXING MORE THAN FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE THREAT SOME. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THINKING BEST CHANCE OF FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT IN THE TAFS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /CHENARD && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/ MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO 65. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08 && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
252 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies again today and tonight. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong and capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Showers should be more scattered on Sunday and Monday, and mainly limited to the mountainous areas of the Inland Northwest. There is a good chance that Tuesday will be cool, rainy and breezy as a vigorous low pressure system moves through the region. A warming and drying trend is likely Wednesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Sunday: Another active evening in store. Large low pressure system continues to send short waves through our area with moist southerly flow. One wave fired severe convection this morning over northeast WA. That convection died off but more is just starting to develop. SPC has this area in a slight risk for this evening. HRRR suggests that this convection will move north/east of our area in the next few hours. Meanwhile another short wave has created a line of convection that has moved into south- central WA. PDT has already warned on the storm near Walla Walla. HRRR predicts this storm to move onto the Palouse for the next couple of hours. Behind this there is still additional showers/storms over central OR that will move into our area tonight. While we will be lacking the daytime heating the continued support from aloft means that this activity probably won`t just shut off with sunset. Shower activity on Monday should be confined to the northern Mountains. Thunderstorms are still a possibility but the strongest storms should be well to our north and east. RJ Sunday night through Monday: Deep upper level pressure system will continue to spin off the Northwest coastline. An upper level wave rotating around the low on Sunday will head north of the region as some short wave ridging of higher pressure moves into the region. This will result in much of the region drying out and warming up a bit for Monday. We will remain very unstable with CAPEs across eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle 400-800 J/KG. However, this instability will come with around 20-80 J/KG of convective inhibition (CIN). Models do not show any waves of energy moving across the region on Monday afternoon with the short wave ridging, thus I do not think we will be able to realize this convective energy. The mountains will have the best shot at some showers. The Panhandle mountains will have the easiest time to break the cap with around 20 J/KG of CIN. We may see a thunderstorm or two across these mountains, thus I left a slight chance of thunderstorms here. Monday night into Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system offshore will finally push into the region as it moves off to the northeast through Oregon and finally into British Columbia/Alberta by Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate a moist and very dynamic system as the low passes through the region. We will see an increasing chance for showers late Monday night with the bulk of the rainfall moving through during the day on Tuesday. Considering the good agreement between models and the high precipitation amounts being produced, I bumped up POPs and QPF values significantly. The Okanogan Highlands over to the northern Panhandle will likely pick up to around 0.50 to 1.0 inch Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some instability accompanying the low pressure passage may result in some thunderstorms across the eastern two- thirds of the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will be much colder with this system. /SVH Tuesday night through Saturday: Closed low will continue to exit the region as a ridge builds across the intermountain west. Tuesday night residual showers are possible, mainly along the US/Canadian border. After that, we dry out and start to warm up. There is some model discrepancy about what to do Friday and the weekend. The previous four runs of the ECMWF showed a negatively tilted trough moving across the area starting Friday afternoon. However, the latest run holds the ridge strong, and is more like the GFS. Kept some mountain showers across the north and cascades through Saturday given the uncertainty at this time. Temperatures Wednesday will start to increase, but still be several degrees below average. Then Thursday through Saturday we will see temperatures at least average, with Friday being the warmest day with temps about 5 degrees above average for this time of the year. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Washington this morning. This activity should continue through 21Z before gradually moving into southern BC. More thunderstorms will develop along the ID/MT border this afternoon. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the area from Oregon this afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with these showers. Abundant clouds tonight should prevent the formation of widespread fog or stratus but localized IFR cig/vis is possible. RJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 56 76 53 81 54 62 / 60 30 10 10 30 80 Coeur d`Alene 56 76 53 82 53 61 / 70 40 10 10 30 80 Pullman 53 74 51 79 51 64 / 60 10 10 10 40 80 Lewiston 59 84 58 86 59 72 / 40 10 10 10 40 70 Colville 53 76 51 85 53 61 / 70 60 10 10 30 90 Sandpoint 55 75 49 80 51 57 / 80 60 10 20 20 90 Kellogg 53 76 53 82 52 57 / 70 30 10 20 40 90 Moses Lake 54 81 52 84 56 71 / 20 20 0 10 40 50 Wenatchee 54 78 54 81 56 68 / 30 20 0 0 40 40 Omak 52 78 50 84 54 68 / 50 60 10 10 30 80 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$