Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/23/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
939 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 AM PDT THURSDAY...DRAMATIC COOLING TREND
UNDERWAY THIS MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. YESTERDAY SAW
WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S. BY THIS
AFTERNOON SOME OF THE EAST BAY VALLEYS THAT WERE AROUND 95 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...REPRESENTING A
NEARLY 30 DEGREE COOLING TREND OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE DRAMATIC
ONSHORE PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS NOW RAMPED UP TO 2500 FEET WITH
HILLSIDE LOCATIONS THAT ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY REPORTING
DREARY CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 5.0 MB THIS AFTERNOON WILL MEAN LITTLE
OR NO CLEARING FOR THE COAST AND CLOUDS COULD HANG IN THE BAY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ALONG WITH THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL HOWL INTO THE DELTA AND UP IN THE HILLS OF THE
EAST BAY. AT THIS HOUR ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR HILLS OF MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTY ARE PROTECTED FROM THIS MARINE PUSH WITH TEMPS
ALREADY PUSHING 80.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A 2500-3000 FOOT CLOUD DECK WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PLAN ON UPDATING FORECAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SHOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF SONOMA COUNTY
WITH DRIZZLE LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS ON FRIDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
EVEN BY BAY AREA STANDARDS THE OFFICIAL START TO SUMMER WILL BE
OFF TO A COOL START...ESPECIALLY INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS BAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS INLAND INTRUSION. ALMOST
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STRATUS...AS THE MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOW AROUND 2000 FEET. LATE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP SOUTH AROUND THE SF BAY TOWARD
KSFO...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND A SOLID STRATUS DECK OFFSHORE...A LATE CLEARING
AROUND 20Z IS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS CLEARING
TIME BECAUSE THE NAM IS FORECASTING AN ALL DAY EVENT...WHILE THE
GFS AND WRF INDICATE CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF
THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED A LATE
CLEARING...SO WENT WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR TO
IFR CIGS THAN THE TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRED TODAY AT 4:09 PM PDT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
527 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS
WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 1400 FEET...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STRENGTHENING IN
THE ONSHORE DIRECTION WITH 3.1 MB FROM SFO TO SAC. THE NAM12
INCREASES THIS GRADIENT TO NEARLY 5 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. AS THIS TROUGH
NEARS...AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES...AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 AT THE COAST TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...AS MANY AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE
HILLS AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL HILLS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EVEN THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR DISTRICT ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEEP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS INLAND INTRUSION. ALMOST
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STRATUS...AS THE MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOW AROUND 2000 FEET. LATE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP SOUTH AROUND THE SF BAY TOWARD
KSFO...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND A SOLID STRATUS DECK OFFSHORE...A LATE CLEARING
AROUND 20Z IS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS CLEARING
TIME BECAUSE THE NAM IS FORECASTING AN ALL DAY EVENT...WHILE THE
GFS AND WRF INDICATE CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF
THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED A LATE
CLEARING...SO WENT WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR TO
IFR CIGS THAN THE TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRED TODAY AT 4:09 PM PDT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 90S
WITHIN VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AS DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO REACH DOWNWARD.
HAVE MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100
DEGREES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER
ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL
THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LFC/S WILL MITIGATE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW
BEGINNING TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF
TONIGHT...AND A STRONGER CDFNT FRI.
RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY
FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH
00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL
AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND
NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND
2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING
TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI.
THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO
NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR
SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE. IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE
PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES
ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI FM SVT TO WCATSKILLS...PUSHING
SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL
WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA
FRI.
GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.
SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN
GENERAL TSTMS.
BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG
S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT
FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH
SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST
CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY
FRI.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL
DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S
HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...GOOD
VISIBILITY...THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AT
KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND THE SKY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DIMINISHING WIND MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME MVFR BR/HZ AT ALL THE TAFS OTHER THAN KALB OVERNIGHT. AT
KALB...ENOUGH OF A WNW BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.
THERE IS CHANCE OF IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BUT WE FEEL THE THREAT IS
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME SO DID NOT PLACE ANY IFR IN THOSE
TAFS.
ANY BR/HZ SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. AFTER THAT...WE ARE EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE BUT THE THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW THROUGH MIDDAY AT OUR TAF
SITES SO DID NOT MENTION THEM IN OUR TAFS. THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS. (AFTER 18Z).
PLEASE REFER BACK TO OUR DISCUSSION/TAF FORECAST IF YOU ARE FLYING
LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA MAINLY KGFL.
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. CIG. CHC SUB-VFR CHC RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE
FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN
35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.
ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH
OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW
RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES
FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95
DEGREES FROM 1953.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 90S
WITHIN VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AS DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO REACH DOWNWARD.
HAVE MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100
DEGREES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER
ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL
THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LFC/S WILL MITIGATE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW
BEGINNING TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF
TONIGHT...AND A STRONGER CDFNT FRI.
RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY
FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH
00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL
AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND
NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND
2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING
TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI.
THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO
NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR
SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE. IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE
PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES
ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI FM SVT TO WCATSKILLS...PUSHING
SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL
WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA
FRI.
GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.
SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN
GENERAL TSTMS.
BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG
S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT
FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH
SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST
CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY
FRI.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL
DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S
HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500HPA AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER RGN TDY. VFR CONDS TODAY WITH WINDS
BCMG NW-W 10KTS....GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
WITH WARM TEMPS IN MID LEVELS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER AND ISOLD TSTM COULD FIRE TWRD EVENING IN
CATSKILLS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TNGT AS WELL WITH NR CALM WINDS
AND AREAS OF MVFR HZ AND BR LATE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. KALB/KPSF...SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA/-TSRA. SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE
FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN
35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.
ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH
OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW
RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES
FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95
DEGREES FROM 1953.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1011 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
WITH THIS UPDATE. VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES...WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES (EXCEPT UPPER 70S SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS).
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE DAY.
SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH ANY OF THE PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE ALY RAOB AND ALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE
STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100
DEGREES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER
ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL
THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LCLS WILL MITIGATE ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LOOK FOR HIGHS 85 TO 90 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW TO MID 90S
MOST VALLEY AREAS.
WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW BEGINNING
TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF THU NT....AND
A STRONGER CDFNT FRI.
RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY
FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH
00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL
AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND
NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND
2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING
TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI.
THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO
NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR
SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE.
IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL
IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI
FM SVT TO W CATSKILLS...PUSHING SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER
SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER
W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA FRI.
GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.
SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN
GENERAL TSTMS.
BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG
S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT
FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH
SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST
CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY
FRI.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL
DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S
HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500HPA AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER RGN TDY. VFR CONDS TODAY WITH WINDS
BCMG NW-W 10KTS....GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
WITH WARM TEMPS IN MID LEVELS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER AND ISOLD TSTM COULD FIRE TWRD EVENING IN
CATSKILLS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TNGT AS WELL WITH NR CALM WINDS
AND AREAS OF MVFR HZ AND BR LATE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. KALB/KPSF...SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA/-TSRA. SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE
FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN
35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.
ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH
OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW
RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES
FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95
DEGREES FROM 1953.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...MOST OF AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE ERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
WL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST. KAPF WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE, DECIDED
TO KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SE
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KNOTS, BUT INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 8-10
KNOTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ENSURE AN
INCREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL EXPECT
MOST OF IT ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...
THE SKIES THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS IS
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
AND THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 60 TO 70
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER COMPARE TO YESTERDAY...DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CWA. SO HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER REST OF THE
CWA.
THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS. SO WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING
THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA
CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z
BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE
< 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR
FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL
TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS
AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 83 76 85 / 30 50 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 85 77 83 / 40 50 40 60
MIAMI 76 86 76 82 / 40 50 40 60
NAPLES 75 84 77 84 / 60 50 40 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SKIES THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS IS
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
AND THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 60 TO 70
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER COMPARE TO YESTERDAY...DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CWA. SO HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER REST OF THE
CWA.
THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS. SO WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING
THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA
CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z
BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE
< 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR
FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL
TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS
AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 76 83 76 / 40 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 87 76 86 76 / 50 40 50 40
NAPLES 86 75 84 77 / 70 60 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING
THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA
CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z
BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE
< 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR
FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL
TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS
AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 76 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 84 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 40
NAPLES 84 75 84 77 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 76 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 84 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 40
NAPLES 84 75 84 77 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED
MID DECK CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM IS...HOWEVER PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTA AREA...BUT STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER OR PRECIPITATION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
LIGHT WIND...EXPECTED...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF IFR FOG
AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN DOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1008 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SUN IS GOING DOWN AND AREA HAS LOST SURFACE HEATING. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST AREA RADAR FROM NORTH CAROLINA ALSO
SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AERIAL COVERAGE.OTHERWISE
FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED
MID DECK CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM IS...HOWEVER PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTA AREA...BUT STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER OR PRECIPITATION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
LIGHT WIND...EXPECTED...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF IFR FOG
AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN DOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
830 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SUN IS GOING DOWN AND AREA HAS LOST SURFACE HEATING. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST AREA RADAR FROM NORTH CAROLINA ALSO
SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AERIAL COVERAGE.OTHERWISE
...FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL
LOCATIONS. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
NORTH CAROLINA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITY AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS PLUS LOCAL MOISTURE
SOURCES. RADIATION SCHEME KEEP FOG OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE DISAGREES PLACING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY AT BOTH AGS AND
OGB. KEPT CURRENT FORECAST WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE AND THE FACT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRED FOR A WHILE AT AGS THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL GO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AREA FOR 3-4 HOURS IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PORTION INCLUDING LANCASTER...CHESTERFIELD...KERSHAW
AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS NC...WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OR LOWER
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AVAILABILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE AND TRACK OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ORTHOGRAPHIC EFFECTS LOOK TO KEEP BULK OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. LATEST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE
INCLUDING SREF POPS...MOS THUNDER PROBABILITIES...AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR INDICATES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER W NC...MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE ESE. SOME STORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN FA. CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL
LOCATIONS. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
NORTH CAROLINA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITY AT AGS AND OGB TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS PLUS LOCAL MOISTURE
SOURCES. RADIATION SCHEME KEEP FOG OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE DISAGREES PLACING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY AT BOTH AGS AND
OGB. KEPT CURRENT FORECAST WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE AND THE FACT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRED FOR A WHILE AT AGS THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT NEARLY HALF THE WAY ACROSS THE
CWA...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 10 AM.
UNFORTUNATELY THE BADLY NEEDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSED. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE CAP...AND LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. A GOOD
PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMING OUT OF IOWA SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
STEADY OUT OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER
90S BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THAT FAR.
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/GRIDS TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED ALL OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A KCMI-KBLV LINE. HAVE BEEN
SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT KCMI...AS LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT BY 18Z TO PRECLUDE MENTION ELSEWHERE.
HAVE HAD SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT
THIS MORNING...BUT LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOWEST
CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR RANGE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT NEARLY HALF THE WAY ACROSS THE
CWA...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 10 AM.
UNFORTUNATELY THE BADLY NEEDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSED. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE CAP...AND LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. A GOOD
PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMING OUT OF IOWA SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
STEADY OUT OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER
90S BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THAT FAR.
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/GRIDS TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI IS STEADILY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON
TRENDS AND 06Z NAM DATA...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS
AS THE FRONT PASSES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO
20KT. FURTHER WEST...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. SW WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO W BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN TO THE
W/NW AFTER FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI IS STEADILY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON
TRENDS AND 06Z NAM DATA...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS
AS THE FRONT PASSES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO
20KT. FURTHER WEST...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. SW WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO W BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN TO THE
W/NW AFTER FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1136 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
DURING THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING. ITS TIME
OF ARRIVAL IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR MANY SHOWERS/STORMS...SO AM ONLY
CARRYING A VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALSO KEPT VFR
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH IF A HEAVY
SHOWER/STORM WERE TO OCCUR ISOLATED LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD NOT BE AS
GUSTY AS THE WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT THEN DIVERGE WITH HANDLING A
DISTURBANCE IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND. DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM ALLBLEND POPS THIS WEEKEND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY UNTIL MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED. MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER MON THRU WED
WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRESSING EASTWARD
INTO SE IA TOWARD THE IL BORDER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OVER
NW MO INTO EASTERN MO WITH MCS. COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SE INTO NW
PARTS OF IL/MO NEAR GALESBURG SO CONVECTION IS POST FRONTAL. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FRONT MOVING QUICKLY INTO SE IL
BY 18Z/1 PM WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING DURING THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL...THEN REDEVELOPING IN SE IL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BRUNT OF ACTIVITY GETTING SE OF THE WABASH RIVER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SPC JUST HAS A 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SE
OF THE IL RIVER TODAY...BUT THINK STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER MO WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE WABASH RIVER
WHERE CONVECTION CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON AND SEE MORE
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO ASSIST HEATING MORE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70F THIS MORNING SLIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FAR SE IL EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NW TO SE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WY/SD/NE BORDER TO DRIFT EAST INTO
WI/IL BY 00Z/7 PM FRI AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE FRI WITH LESS
HUMID AIR. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 80S IN SE IL.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF IL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY YET THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SAT FROM NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
CONTINUES 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AND
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ON SUNDAY NORTH OF I-70. HIGHS 85-90 THIS
WEEKEND AND WARMEST IN SW AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON
THROUGH WED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEN.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR TAF CYCLE ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 10-15 KTS
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. A FEW OR SCTRD CU AT
3-4K FT AGL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ..12..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 07Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOST PART OF THE CWA. LINGERING AND DECAYING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH DRIER WEATHER ALREADY
MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED AHEAD
OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL RAP AND HRRR...ALONG WITH 00Z MODELS AGREE IN
CONTINUING THE TREND IN WEAKENING THE SHOWERS AND MOVING THEM
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS.
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THOUGH COOLER
TEMPS ARE IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AS A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ONE
NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON
THE POSITION OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CWFA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS.
AT SUNRISE SATURDAY THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF THE
NOCTURNAL MCS. CONCEPTUALLY AND INTERNALLY FROM THE MODELS THIS MCS
SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NOT
FAR NORTH OF THE SD/NE BORDER. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE MCS SHOULD
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KFSD OR NORTHWEST IOWA. MCS AND LIFT TOOLS
ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MCS WOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THE
LLJ WEAKENS AND IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED. THUS RAINFALL
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS MORE SHRA THAN TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN INITIALLY.
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE TSRA.
WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONT/BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT/BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
SUNDAY ON...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA AT SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD
END DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS NEAR
MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD BE AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 08
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 07Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOST PART OF THE CWA. LINGERING AND DECAYING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH DRIER WEATHER ALREADY
MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED AHEAD
OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL RAP AND HRRR...ALONG WITH 00Z MODELS AGREE IN
CONTINUING THE TREND IN WEAKENING THE SHOWERS AND MOVING THEM
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS.
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THOUGH COOLER
TEMPS ARE IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AS A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ONE
NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON
THE POSITION OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CWFA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS.
AT SUNRISE SATURDAY THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF THE
NOCTURNAL MCS. CONCEPTUALLY AND INTERNALLY FROM THE MODELS THIS MCS
SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NOT
FAR NORTH OF THE SD/NE BORDER. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE MCS SHOULD
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KFSD OR NORTHWEST IOWA. MCS AND LIFT TOOLS
ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MCS WOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THE
LLJ WEAKENS AND IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED. THUS RAINFALL
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS MORE SHRA THAN TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN INITIALLY.
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE TSRA.
WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONT/BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT/BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
SUNDAY ON...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA AT SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD
END DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS NEAR
MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD BE AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 08
&&
.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING SCATTERED...SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CID AND DBQ SITES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE MLI AND BRL SITES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AND
GIVEN THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...LESS LIKELY AT MLI AND
BRL. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE RAIN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
902 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO
DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40
KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END
AT 4Z.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED
CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA
HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF
THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE TERMINALS...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF
KMCK...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
OVER THE TERMINALS...CAUSING GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING AND
WINDS TO VEER TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...CJS
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
712 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40
KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END
AT 4Z.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED
CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA
HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF
THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE TERMINALS...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF
KMCK...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
OVER THE TERMINALS...CAUSING GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING AND
WINDS TO VEER TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...CJS
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE TERMINALS...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF
KMCK...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
OVER THE TERMINALS...CAUSING GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING AND
WINDS TO VEER TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...CJS
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE AREA. WILL HANG
ONTO THE ISOLATED POPS A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE ASSESSING HOW LONG
OF A LULL THERE WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IF NOT
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A
POTENTIAL RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARDS DAWN AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE LATEST SREF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
SCENARIO. FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE HOURLIES TO MATCH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT
APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH
ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT
AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR
THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. AT
THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON
MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID
WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. SOME
MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
AT ANY LOCATIONS THAT MANAGED TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR AT BOTH LOZ AND SME FOR NOW TOWARDS DAWN. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AT THE
TAF SITES DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
309 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT
APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH
ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT
AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR
THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECWMF MODEL. AT
THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON
MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID
WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT EASTERN KY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAFS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AT
SME AND LOZ BEING REDUCED TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CONVECTION WITH THIS WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AREAS FROM JKL
SOUTHWESTWARD BEING LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT
WILL NOT CARRY ANY THUNDER IN TAFS...BUT ONLY INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING
FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NW-SE BAND OF ACCAS AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH HAS PERSISTED THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS SW MN HAS BEEN THINNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. VORT
MAX WHICH DOVE OUT OF NE MN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR NOW IN THE CENTRAL
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL REMAIN NE OF
OUR AREA. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS
TO REACH NEAR LEVELS OF LAST NIGHT...BUT INCREASING MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL PUSH MAINLY INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNITE.
BROAD WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS AREA FOR SATURDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. BEST FORCING FOR PCPN TOMORROW SHUD BE ACROSS
S MN...N OF WARM FRONT WHERE 850 MB JET TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS IA
TOWARD S MN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WAA PATTERN AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE BIT COOLER TEMPS THAN
TODAY.
VIGOROUS TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO DROPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS EASTERN CWA.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE DRIVES COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SETTLED AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE SUN TEMPS. SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
RETAINED THE LOW POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES THRU.
QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN LONGER RANGE BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING UPPER TROF
SWINGING TOWARD AREA OUT OF CANADA. WENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORS WITH
LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN/EC SD HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE
SE...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SC MN.
HOWEVER...-SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
HEAVIER SHRA NEAR RWF/AXN BETWEEN 6-12Z. CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS
STC/RNH/MSP AS THE LATEST RAP HAS MORE DEVELOPMENT AFT 6Z ACROSS
CENTRAL MN...EXTENDING SE TOWARD MSP. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
MASS...WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH AT THESE PLACES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA BY 12Z. RNH/EAU...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
TSRA/SHRA UNTIL AFT 12Z. WNDS WILL BECOME SE/ESE OVERNIGHT AND
BEGIN TO GUSTS DURING THE MORNING.
MSP...SHRA/TSRA IN EC SD/SW MN WILL HOLD IN THIS AREA THRU 9Z.
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AFT 9Z...SO WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE VCSH BY 9Z. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM BASED ON THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...OR AT LEAST
UNTIL AFT 12-15Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE SE TOWARD MSP BY 12Z. MORE ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
OUTLOOK...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.
JLT
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
850 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIES JUST SOUTH OF GREAT
FALLS AND STRETCHES BACK THROUGH MEAGHER COUNTY. HRRR PRODUCT A
LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE AS IT DEPICTS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AS STAYING
TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMEPRATURES LOOK REASONABLE. EMANUEL
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT/BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVE AS
ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS INTO ERN MT/SRN CANADA WHILE A
SECOND WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE FROM KBZN
TO KGTF TO EAST OF KCTB. LATEST FORECAST DATA HAS BACKED OFF ON
EXPECTED INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP BUT ATMOSPHERE
STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE
RAIN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND MVFR CEILINGS THRU 06Z.
WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION AS A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA.
CONVECTION TODAY WAS LIMITED BY A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND
A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MINOR DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY IN IDAHO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS SATURDAY LOOK
VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY CONVECTIVE SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP THUS ENDING MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
ZONES UNDERNEATH MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROF TO THE WEST. THE TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT
GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND BRING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE DECREASING TO THE EAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL HAVE RATHER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM THE
WEST WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ZELZER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-TEENS...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRIMARY AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE MID-SLOPE AND VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND HELENA THROUGH
BROADWATER AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES TO NORTHERN GALLATIN
COUNTY (ESSENTIALLY ALL OF FIRE ZONE 118 AND PARTS OF FIRE ZONE
116). DISCUSSION WITH FIRE MANAGERS INDICATE THAT FUEL MOISTURE IN
LIGHT FUEL TYPES IS ALREADY NEAR-CRITICAL BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
HEAVIER FUELS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CRITERIA AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ON SUN/MON...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WEEKEND SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE WINDS AND UPDATE
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS NEEDED. WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 55 78 56 88 / 20 20 20 10
CTB 54 70 54 78 / 40 60 70 20
HLN 56 84 55 91 / 10 20 20 10
BZN 48 86 50 92 / 10 10 10 0
WEY 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 50 83 50 87 / 10 0 10 10
HVR 56 78 58 89 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 52 78 55 86 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMANUEL/GUSTAFSON
LONG TERM...ZELZER
AVIATION...BLANK
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENTAND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAF. WINDS WILL BE STEADY/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING MAY ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
THE TERMINAL AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. WINDS WILL BE STEADY/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING MAY ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
THE TERMINAL AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-017.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AS THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS
SUNDAY NIGHT...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING
POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST
INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE
CDFNT. PREV BLO...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ARE ON BOARD WITH PERSISTENT LARGE COOL
UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AREA...EVEN
THOUGH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL LOBES DIFFER. ALSO...ECMWF IS
TENDING TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE VICINITY BY
LATEWEEK...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH INSTEAD SHIFTS IT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...COOL TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL /ESPECIALLY NORTH/.
A PREFRONTAL WAVE...MARKED IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
GFS/ECWMF...WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
COLD FROPA INTO MONDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...UPGRADED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THAT PERIOD. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER AS WELL...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. BEYOND
THEN...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. DIURNAL HEATING IN TANDEM
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DRIVE STEEP LAPSE RATES EACH
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HARNESSING YET- TO-BE- RESOLVED WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED -TSRA KELM/KBGM
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT AND THUS NOT IN
TAF. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE CAPPED...INHIBITING
CONVECTION...WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS READY TO EAT UP
ANY SHOWER THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP. TONIGHT...INITIALLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME VALLEY FOG TRYING TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY KELM AND TO LESSER DEGREE KAVP. HOWEVER...INBOUND
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT /AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AHEAD OF FRONT/...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...APPEARS LIKELY TO HALT FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE
OF SOME IFR WILL BE FOR KELM FOR A TIME...BEFORE INCOMING FRONT
KILLS IT. LOOKING FOR DECK OF CLOUDS AT 5-6 KFT WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TSRA WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST OF KBGM-KRME LINE...WITH BEST CHANCE KAVP
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AS FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
LATE FRI THROUGH SUN...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO MON...CHC MVFR WITH SHOWERY COLD FRONT.
MON NGT THRU TUE...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1241 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AS THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS
SUNDAY NIGHT...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING
POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST
INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE
CDFNT. PREV BLO...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ARE ON BOARD WITH PERSISTENT LARGE COOL
UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AREA...EVEN
THOUGH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL LOBES DIFFER. ALSO...ECMWF IS
TENDING TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE VICINITY BY
LATEWEEK...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH INSTEAD SHIFTS IT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...COOL TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL /ESPECIALLY NORTH/.
A PREFRONTAL WAVE...MARKED IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
GFS/ECWMF...WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
COLD FROPA INTO MONDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...UPGRADED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THAT PERIOD. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER AS WELL...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. BEYOND
THEN...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. DIURNAL HEATING IN TANDEM
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DRIVE STEEP LAPSE RATES EACH
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HARNESSING YET- TO-BE- RESOLVED WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE
AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME
ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF
ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE
NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT
BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1159 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING
POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTINOS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST
INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE
CDFNT. PREV BLO...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF
AND GFS ALSO ARE AT LEAST CONCURRING ON GENERAL PATTERN /DETAILS
OF DEEPNESS OF UPPER LOW AND TIMING OF LOWEST THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT/. HPC FORECAST HANDLES THIS CHANGE WELL AND FORMS THE
BASIS OF OUR LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
AFTER SEEING OUR FIRST AIR MASS ADJUSTMENT FROM THE COLD FRONT
EARLIER /FRIDAY/...A SECOND COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND PERSISTENT COOL UPPER LOW
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE BEYOND THEN DUE TO INSTABILITY
FROM COLD AIR ALOFT IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF DRY
SLOTTING AROUND LOBES OF THE UPPER LOW CAN KILL OFF CHANCES DURING
CERTAIN PERIODS...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE
AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME
ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF
ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE
NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT
BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
4 AM UPDATE...
BINGHAMTON TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA
JUST MISSED.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
851 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF
AND GFS ALSO ARE AT LEAST CONCURRING ON GENERAL PATTERN /DETAILS
OF DEEPNESS OF UPPER LOW AND TIMING OF LOWEST THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT/. HPC FORECAST HANDLES THIS CHANGE WELL AND FORMS THE
BASIS OF OUR LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
AFTER SEEING OUR FIRST AIR MASS ADJUSTMENT FROM THE COLD FRONT
EARLIER /FRIDAY/...A SECOND COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND PERSISTENT COOL UPPER LOW
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE BEYOND THEN DUE TO INSTABILITY
FROM COLD AIR ALOFT IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF DRY
SLOTTING AROUND LOBES OF THE UPPER LOW CAN KILL OFF CHANCES DURING
CERTAIN PERIODS...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE
AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME
ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF
ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE
NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT
BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
4 AM UPDATE...
BINGHAMTON TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA
JUST MISSED.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM EAST TODAY. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE CWA
AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EAST OF THE RALEIGH AREA AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADD A SMALL POP TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY
AS WHAT INSTABILITY WE DO HAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THU...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MID
WEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS ERN NC WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AND ANY PCPN REMAINING WELL NW OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE PRODUCING SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND 68-73 INLAND AND MAINLY M70S
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THU...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE NE US. THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS
POINT WITH THE GFS AND SREF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM HANGS IT UP AND THE ECMWF BASICALLY
DISSIPATES IT OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW IN THE GULF WHICH COULD TRACK ACROSS FL AND OFF THE SE COAST
SOME TIME NEXT WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STUCK WITH CONSISTENCY/HPC
BLEND FOR EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA AND
UPPER TROUGHING...AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH...CAN`T
RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND...BEYOND THAT TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE
WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE INLAND AND LOWS 65 TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TAF SITES.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT KOAJ
AND SOME POSSIBLE MVFR HAZE AT KISO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KEWN
FOR POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SMOKE LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS AS
IF THE FIRE WILL BE WELL ENOUGH VENTILATED THAT THIS WILL NOT BE
OF AS MUCH CONCERN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THU...PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TROUGHING
DEVELOPS IN THE WEST...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS LINGERING SMOKE FROM CROATAN FOREST FIRE. GIVEN CURRENT SMOKE
TRENDS EXPECT WORST CONDITIONS TO BE LIMITED TO VICINITY OF THE
FIRE...WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AWAY
FROM CRAVEN COUNTY. THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING OF FIRE
CONDITIONS...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE MIDDLE
LEGS. RUC13 SHOWS THAT SOME GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS
CONTINUE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS.
/LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THU...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY SLOWLY DISSIPATING.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SAT...WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN COASTAL WATERS. AS DISCUSSED
IN LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FAVORED HPC GUIDANCE/CONSISTENCY IN
FORECAST FOR WINDS/SEAS WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE
GULF ACROSS FLORIDA. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CTC/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
STILL...AT LEAST ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. WITH LINGERING
FRONT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/SRN OK AND TX. WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS...RECENT OBS SUGGEST
THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC...THUS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CIGS ONCE
POST FRONTAL SHRA CLEARS TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
UPDATE...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES
A BIT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR...STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
APPEARS CAPPING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION
ISOLATED AT BEST. ALSO...THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN NORTHEAST KANSAS.
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM CDT WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...BUT APPEARS
THIS POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND DUE TO LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING.
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
CONFIDENCE OF RECEIVING RAIN IS DECREASING. HOWEVER...
MOST LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DEPICTS THAT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 7 AM CDT TIME FRAME ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KOKC METRO AREA AFTER 4 AM CDT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MODELS INDICATED DECREASING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER CAPPING. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY
AFTER 1 AM CDT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 01 TO 02Z
WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MANY TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z THURS. BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN AT
KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
TSRA AND BEHIND FRONT AS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDS IN THROUGH
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION AROUND 6 OR 7 PM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WHERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
+ 16-17 AT DDC/AMA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS. A
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR WEAKENS CONVECTION OUT WEST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS LIKE
A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION.
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE OVER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
MODELS STILL BUILD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS FORTUNATE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 30-60 DAYS. THE OFFSHOOT WILL
BE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 71 87 68 / 10 30 40 20
HOBART OK 92 69 89 68 / 0 30 50 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 94 71 / 0 10 30 20
GAGE OK 91 64 86 60 / 20 40 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 90 68 85 63 / 10 60 40 10
DURANT OK 90 71 92 71 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THINKING LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE FIRST 3 TO 9 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NE OK TERMINALS...WITH LESSER
CHANCES AT MLC AND THE NW AR TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OR A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MCS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER OK/AR IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR CONVECTIVE
GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. LAPSE
RATES AOA 500MB ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THERE IS A CAP AT AROUND
700MB WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE 10C ON THE OUN SOUNDING. THERE IS
NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT A WAVE WILL HELP WITH LIFT...AND THE 500MB
WINDS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT BEST AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS CALLED INTO QUESTION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE 60% POPS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE POP FORECAST WILL NOT BE RAISED ANY HIGHER
THAN THE 50-60% WE HAVE GOING. BOTTOM LINE...BASED ON THE NEWEST
DATA...THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED THIS
EVENING.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IS AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND TSRA AT BVO/TUL/RVS. PROB30S WILL
BE CARRIED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...AS TSRA CHANCES DECREASE
FURTHER S AND E. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER THIS SUMMER IS LOOMING
ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF
NEXT WEEK....WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. BEFORE THE HEAT ARRIVES THOUGH...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS THAT WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING OUR LAST DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME AND ALSO OUR LAST TASTE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR AWHILE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WANES AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT SO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO DO THE SAME.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...THE CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WILL ONLY GO DOWN WITH TIME AFTER THAT.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL HELP DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA BY MONDAY
BUT ANY REAL COOLING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING POSSIBLE HERE. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE HEAT WILL BUILD EVEN
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY...PERHAPS AS HOT AS HAS EVER BEEN RECORDED IN JUNE IN
SOME PLACES.
GENERALLY STAYED NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND WELL ABOVE THE GFS MOS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS EXTREME WITH THE HEAT AS EITHER THE ECMWF OR THE
DGEX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 85 68 92 / 50 50 10 10
FSM 71 91 70 95 / 10 40 10 10
MLC 71 88 68 93 / 30 30 10 10
BVO 71 85 63 92 / 60 40 10 10
FYV 66 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10
BYV 67 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10
MKO 71 87 66 93 / 30 50 10 10
MIO 71 86 66 91 / 50 40 10 10
F10 72 87 66 94 / 40 30 10 10
HHW 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN
WEAKEN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM...12 NAM GENERATES MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPSTATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE MESO MODELS LIKE THE LOCAL WRF AND RAP CONFINE CONVECTION
GENERALLY TO THE PREFERRED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE HRRR DOES SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSTATE. FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED UP THE
POPS OVER THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AS ALL MODELS INDICATE
BETTER COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MENTIONABLE
POPS TO GENERALLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN WEAK SO THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL AGAIN
TODAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OTHER GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...THE AGING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT DOES. THUS...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT S TO
SWLY WINDS AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR ISO TO SCAT TSRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WITH A WEAKER
MID LVL INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH I STILL DONT EXPECT ANY TS TO BECOME SVR...A FEW
MIGHT COME CLOSE IF THE CAP IS EASILY BROKEN. HIGH TEMPS ARE FCST TO
BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH THE INCREASED INSOLATION AND
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW. LOWS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD ALSO BE A DEGREE
OR 2 WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH VALUES AROUND 70 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS FRI
AFTN...WITH CHC SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE
AFTN-EARLY EVE. CONVECTION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE S CWA SAT EXPECT CHC POPS TO REDEVELOP WITH
HEATING IN THE AFTN...PRIMARILY ALONG AND S OF I-85 STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME STORMS. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE E US THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HELD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SUN AND MON AFTNS AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH
INSTABLILITY AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WEAK FRONT MEANDERING
OVER THE AREA...TO SUPPORT LOW END COVERAGE. MODELS VARY WITH
DETAILS BUT ALL KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE S
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH S OF THE CWA ON TUE BUT THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAVE TUE DRY FOR NOW BUT LATE
DAY CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING OVER THE MTNS FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS WED AFTN. LOOK
FOR ABOVE AVG TEMPS THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN ABOUT 11
AND 13Z. I WAS ANTICIPATING EARLIER THAT KAVL WOULD GO DOWN TO IFR
BY NOW BUT THE SITE HAS BEEN REPORTING VFR SO FAR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY S TO SW BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH CALM CONDITIONS RETURNING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
STILL FORECASTING A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE NC MTS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NWLY DIRECTION.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN WY LATE THIS
AFTN...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD TONIGHT.
SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.
EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM....CARPENTER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
219 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
ALLOWING A DELAYED BUT NOTABLE WARM UP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND MODERATE TO DEEP
CUMULUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/FORECAST AREA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...
BUT THE STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE DEPICTED AROUND 18Z...WHICH HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE. HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED POPS FROM THE 40-50 PERCENT
RANGE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KAMA...
WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KGUY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT BACKING WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KAMA...
WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KGUY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT BACKING WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING...AND ARE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST
TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND
REDUCED AFTERNOON MAXIMA A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU WRF-NAM...SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.....SO CURRENT POPS
REMAIN VALID.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING...AND ARE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST
TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND
REDUCED AFTERNOON MAXIMA A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU WRF-NAM...SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.....SO CURRENT POPS
REMAIN VALID.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE PANHANDLES TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO POINT TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY 19Z
IN VERY MOIST AIR WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT LYING NEAR A
MORTON TO PLAINVIEW TO WELLINGTON LINE AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ARE IN
THE 60S WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AN AREA
OF STRATOCU WITH BASES NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FT ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE TRYING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. SO THE SET UP SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE MORNING MODEL SUITE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE DESERT SW. STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT WITH MOST INDICATIONS SUGGESTING A S TO SW MOVEMENT
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MEANWHILE PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING MLCAPE FROM 1250 TO 1750 J/KG FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA. GIVEN MODERATE CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR WOULD EXPECT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY SOME LINEAR ORIENTATION INITIALLY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A PULSE-TYPE LIFE CYCLE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EARLIEST STORMS...WITH POSSIBLY A
GREATER THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT AND PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
OVERALL THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES ATTM. SKY COVER
GRID A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY COME INTO LINE
AS CUMULUS FIELD FILLS IN AND STORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IF OR WHEN THEY
MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO GROUPS
HOWEVER THIS REFLECTS WHAT THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER-GENERATED
FORECAST SHOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME APPEARS TO
BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE.
EXPECT TAFS TO BE AMENDED AS MORNING DATA STARTS TO COME OUT AND
HOPEFULLY GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON..
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z
ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE
27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP
SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN
ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE.
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY
HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL
MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE
VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES.
FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER
GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT
QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0
TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0
SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IF OR WHEN THEY
MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO GROUPS
HOWEVER THIS REFLECTS WHAT THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER-GENERATED
FORECAST SHOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME APPEARS TO
BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE.
EXPECT TAFS TO BE AMENDED AS MORNING DATA STARTS TO COME OUT AND
HOPEFULLY GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON..
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z
ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE
27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP
SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN
ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE.
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY
HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL
MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE
VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES.
FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER
GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT
QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0
TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0
SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
530 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE PANHANDLES TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 81 64 92 67 97 / 30 10 5 5 0
BEAVER OK 83 63 94 70 101 / 20 5 5 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 79 62 93 67 100 / 20 10 5 5 5
BORGER TX 82 68 94 71 100 / 30 10 5 5 0
BOYS RANCH TX 82 66 96 70 101 / 30 10 5 5 0
CANYON TX 81 64 93 66 96 / 40 10 5 5 0
CLARENDON TX 81 67 91 68 95 / 40 10 5 5 0
DALHART TX 79 62 93 65 98 / 20 10 5 5 0
GUYMON OK 81 64 95 70 100 / 20 5 5 5 0
HEREFORD TX 81 63 92 65 95 / 30 10 5 5 0
LIPSCOMB TX 83 63 92 69 97 / 30 5 5 5 0
PAMPA TX 81 65 90 68 97 / 40 10 5 5 0
SHAMROCK TX 81 67 92 69 95 / 40 10 5 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 84 69 94 69 97 / 40 10 5 5 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z
ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE
27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP
SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN
ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE.
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY
HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL
MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE
VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES.
FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER
GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT
QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0
TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0
SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND SE LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A FLATTENED UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED BY
LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE CU
LOOKS RATHER AGITATED OVER MINNESOTA WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE
FORMING...SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE JUST
WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE FROM LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SPREAD MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH SATURATION OR INSTABILITY FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO A DRY
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 73-74F ELSEWHERE WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED
ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 15-16Z OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ML CAPES OF 600 J/KG AND INVERTED V SOUNDING
IN THE BL SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CAPES ARE RATHER SKINNY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...SO
THINK WILL ONLY MENTION DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE HWO. SOME
STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING EAST AFTER 21Z AS FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO
MICHIGAN. DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVES BY AND A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM CANADA. PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO BKN CIGS...POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH...SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS IMPACTING
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1218 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIGHTING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH FURTHER
HEATING...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AND FGEN ARE ALSO SPREADING OVER THE FRONT TO
AID IN THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA BENEATH AN
UPPER TROUGH. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT...SEVERE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG STORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ML CAPES WILL BE
IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WITH A DECENT WIND FIELD AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS BETWEEN
30-35KTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE STORMS ARRIVE. INSTABILITY DOES
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST...PERHAPS TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY ENTER
THE FOX VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PWATS OF 1.80 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL. SHOULD
SEE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER 09Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO MOVE IN IN
ITS WAKE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEFINITELY GOOD ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD
ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY. NOT SURE ABOUT A TRIGGER
FOR SHOWER POSSIBILITIES...BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
INTERACT WITH 300-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE OVER N-C WISCONSIN. WILL
LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR NOW BUT MENTION POSSIBILITY TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A NICE
SEASONABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND A REFRESHING HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MORE JET ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
BIG SURFACE HIGH THEN SHOULD DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A LATE SEASON FROST IN
THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION YET IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK YET DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SCT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN WI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY...AND MAY TRIGGER
SCT SHRA AT THE RHI TAF SITE.
TSK
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE STORMS THIS EVENING...POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION HAS BUBBLED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST RUNNING COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHWEST IA. GOOD
CONVERGENCE NEAR...BUT MOSTLY POST THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A
STRONG THERMAL BAND IN THE LOW LAYERS. ABOUT 1000 OR SO J/KG OF
MLCAPE AROUND THE FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE RISK IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY LATE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS
SUPPORT WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE ON
THAT IN THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE...IN
THE REGION OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. CAPE MUCH LESS IN THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE A BIT BETTER. COULD BE SOME SEVERE
RISK IN THIS AREA...BUT THINK THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE AROUND THE
FRONT.
FOR THU/FRI...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT...WITH
THE 20.12Z NAM AND GFS HINTING AT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY SEEMS A
BIT STRONGER. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTH/EAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT
A LOT...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED VIA RUC SOUNDINGS
AND RH PLOTS THAT SOME SHRA/TS COULD BE GENERATED IN THIS AREA. WILL
ADD SMALL CHANCES FOR THU AND CONTINUE THE FRI CHANCES.
THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SD/NEB FRI NIGHT/SAT. THIS STORM COMPLEX AND
RESULTING MCV WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS IA/MN/WI ON SAT...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIDE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE EC LOOKS MORE LIKE A MIX
OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS IN
THIS TIME FRAME.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME LESS HUMID
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH HOW LONG TO LINGER THE SAT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE EC WOULD BRING IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS WOULD HANG IT AROUND ON SUNDAY. GEM IS A BIT
QUICKER...ALA THE EC. WILL STEER TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN
THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME LEAN ON THE QUICKER EC/GEM.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR MON-WED WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EASES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. MOSTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON AT THE TAF SITES.
BACK EDGE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH THE RAIN
EXPECTED TO END AT KRST BETWEEN 06Z-07Z AND 08Z AT KLSE. HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES AND IF ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP.
STILL QUITE A FEW MID CLOUDS BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA BUT BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE. DO FEEL THERE MAYBE ENOUGH BREAKS AT KRST TO
WARRANT MENTION OF SOME FOG. NOT AS CONFIDENCE AT KLSE AS CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON LATER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT SUGGEST
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT TONIGHT. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS
SHOULD MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP NORTHEAST...THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED 2
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH OVERALL 1/2 TO 1 INCH TOTALS
MORE LIKELY.
SOME BASINS ARE STILL WET AND/OR HAVE RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...
INCLUDING THE ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...AND
MISSISSIPPI. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS INDICATE THE MISSISSIPPI WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN AT WABASHA ON WED...WHICH MEANS OTHER SITES ALONG THE BIG
MUDDY WILL REACH HEIGHTS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN JUST LAST
WEEK.
CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/ TO HEIGHTEN THE PUBLIC
AWARENESS OF THE SITUATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....MW/RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE
SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INITIATING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS WITH
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF WI AND IOWA. CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELEVATED AROUND 500 J/KG
BEHIND THE FRONT. SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS THE MAIN TRIGGER BUT
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THIS AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT CROSSES
SRN WI. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL WEAKENING THAT
OCCURS LATE AT NIGHT. THE LATEST 4KM HRRR MODEL AND LOCAL 4 KM WRF
MODEL DUE SHOW A WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 06Z. HIGH
POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF SE WI STILL LOOK
GOOD AS WELL AS THE CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SE WI WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE SPOTTY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO BEGIN IN MADISON IS
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA
FROM 07Z THROUGH 12Z THU.
&&
AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR KMSN
FROM 05Z-09Z WITH THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SE WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE THE TSTORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT. A DRY WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MISS OUT ON
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK
AND BEST 500MB PVA NORTH OF THE CWA ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. 12Z
NAM/GFS SHOW DIMINISHING FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALOFT AS IT CROSSES
WISCONSIN...SO THINK PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE WEST.
12Z MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY VORT MAX LAGGING BEHIND THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AND CROSSING THE MKX CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
MIDLEVELS ARE DRY BY THIS TIME SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. WITH THE FRONT PASSING EARLY IN THE DAY MUCH MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH
PERFORMED WELL JUST BEFORE THE WARM SPELL BEGAN AS A BASIS AND THEN
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON MODEL 925MB TEMPS AND DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING PROFILE. ALSO WILL EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S MOST PLACES. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WORK WITH THROUGH...SO MAINLY EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS FROM
THE WAVE...BUT OVERALL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH
HELPING TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIME
PERIOD FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES...SO JUST KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS VERY PLEASANT...WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CURRENT TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT STILL ON TRACK...WITH LATEST MODELS
STILL SHOWING THE FRONT LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT ROLLS THROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT MSN BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES UES/MKE/ENW. VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHERE MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER THAT IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR.
WILL REFLECT THIS IN TEMPO GROUP FOR THE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINIMUM CRITERIA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET. AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO SHORTEN
THE DURATION OF THE ADVISORY...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO PREVIOUS SHIFT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WIMBERLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF POTENT TROUGHING ARRIVING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND FINALLY BACK INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NE
STATES/ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OF MOST INTEREST TO OUR FORECAST IS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS SEEN CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOESN`T GET MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A PW VALUES JUST
SHY OF 2.5". FOR LATE JUNE THIS NUMBER IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OF VALUES.
AT THE SURFACE...OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN THE WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS THIS SURFACE FEATURE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 2.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES IS NOT OVERLY TIGHT EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE FORECAST DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PICTURE OF THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE/SE OF THE MS DELTA.
THEREAFTER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SOLUTIONS. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE UNTIL LATE
MONDAY BEFORE BEING NUDGED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MISSES
THIS ENERGY AND BEGINS TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS
DURING MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE OF LITTLE HELP WITH A SPLIT
OF MEMBERS HEADING EAST AND WEST...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN LEANS
TOWARD A WESTWARD DRIFT BY LATER MONDAY.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...FORECAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WILL FEATURE A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF GUIDANCE...AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
TODAY...WITH THE VERY HIGH VALUES OF COLUMN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE LOW...AND DIURNAL HEATING...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH. FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL FEATURE LESS
COVERAGE OF GENERALLY SCT LIGHTER SHOWERS...AND MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE WE GET SOME HEATING THOUGH...EXPECT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
HIGH...HOWEVER WITH A PW CLOSE TO 2.5"...POCKETS OF LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. LOTS OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
LIMITED HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY TO THE 80S. WAVE MODELS SHOW A SLOW
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SWELL WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TO AT
LEAST A MODERATE LEVEL. THIS ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL TO OUR WEST IN A
POSITION THAT WILL FAVOR BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE
EASTERN GULF. BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND ZONES. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO FILL IN FURTHER INLAND
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF BANDS ORIENT THEMSELVES TO FAVOR TRAINING OF
CELLS.
MONDAY...AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF AND
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS NORTH AND CHANCE POPS
SOUTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF/SREF QPF.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF...I HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY AND JUST THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY.
FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING WELL TO THE WEST...DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST 50
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEATING.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST ALLOWING
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BE MORE
OF A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN RESULTING IN NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MORNINGS SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY...FOLLOWED BY A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE EVENINGS WILL
START OFF WITH ISOLATED STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PGD WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND THEN
STALL SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW AND MARINERS
ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND LIKELY REMAIN
AT THESE ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A
SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 76 84 77 / 80 80 80 70
FMY 86 75 86 76 / 90 80 80 60
GIF 87 73 84 74 / 80 70 80 60
SRQ 87 76 86 77 / 90 80 80 70
BKV 87 73 85 73 / 80 80 80 70
SPG 86 77 85 79 / 80 80 80 70
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8
PM EDT MONDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SKY CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS
LATER TODAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THESE FEATURES
MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/WDLY SCTD STORMS OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING SO WILL MENTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
ZONES AND GRIDS UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 419.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO
DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40
KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END
AT 4Z.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED
CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA
HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF
THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS
END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH H85 DEWPOINTS NEAR 15C, STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS
NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO
FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO
FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED
QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO
BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0
P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AND
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH TO
DISRUPT THIS ADVECTION PATTERN...THINK STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST SOUTH EAST OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPES...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG AT GLD WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40
KTS. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ENDED...THINK CURRENT WINDS WILL
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO END
AT 4Z.
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...STRONG CAP NOTED AT KLBF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT DDC (280 J/KG AND 79 J/KG RESPECTIVELY SFC BASED
CINH...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH IN CWA
HAS LOWERED. WITH NO DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONFLUENT AREA IN SW CWA
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...BUT GIVEN POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND SOME OF
THE NEWER HRRR DATA THINK LEAVING LOW POPS IN THE NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY NEAR MCK. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO THE MCK AREA...WILL ALSO BRING VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS AND WILL DISRUPT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT THINK
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE ONCE STORMS
END...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS AT MCK UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 13Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO
FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO
FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED
QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO
BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20 TO 30KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 72 107 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 73 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 72 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0
P28 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
301 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK... AS A
SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE CONTINENT.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BUILDING TO OUR WEST SLIDES EAST. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
DEPRESSED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. OVERALL... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE MASS FIELDS THROUGH MIDWEEK... THEN DIFFER A BIT IN THE
TIMING OF THE RIDGE-SQUASHING SHORTWAVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... AND WILL THEN STICK CLOSER
TO THE GOING FORECAST AND LATEST ECMWF FOR THE LATER PERIODS. THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK... AND GIVEN THE STOUTNESS OF THE UPPER RIDGE PREFER THE
SLOWER ECMWF.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION ONGOING OVER
THE PLAINS... WHERE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS INTERACTING WITH GOOD
MUCAPE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE. AN ARM
OF SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BEEN IMPACTING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY LINES UP WELL WITH LOWER CPD VALUES AND ASCENT
EVIDENT ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE... AND ALSO HAS 250-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH WHICH TO WORK BASED ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THINGS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL TRY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST TODAY... WHILE REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM
MCS SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA... SINCE THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND BETTER MOISTURE NEVER
REALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN TO OUR NORTH IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN KICKER FOR TONIGHT/S SECONDARY FRONTAL/TROUGH
PASSAGE IS THE MORE ROBUST WAVE SEEN OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AT THE
CURRENT TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH... IT WILL STILL HELP PUSH THE
FRONT/TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... AND DRIVE LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. KEPT SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THOUGH MOST OF TONIGHT GIVEN THE
WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRYING TO WORK INTO THE
AREA TODAY... THEN THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FOCUS OF THE
TWO FEATURES.
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY... AND REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
THEN SURGE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES OVER OUR AREA. LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY FOR NOW... WHEN SOME ARE INTRODUCED OVER THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED EARLIER
COINCIDENT WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE
GUIDANCE IS TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN RESPONSE TO THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
OVER OUR AREA... BUT SHOULD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVE
WITH THE WARMER AIR... WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME PCPN GET WRUNG
OUT.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER... THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN
THE WARMEST OF AIR ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS...
WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE
SLOWER EVOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
AMPLITUDE OF THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW. IN ADDITION... CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUALLY WORK
TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE... WHICH WILL SLOW THE OVERALL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THINGS... MUCH LIKE WE SAW AT THE START OF
THIS PAST WEEK. THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HANDLE SUCH THINGS VERY
WELL... WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN NOT ONLY SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF... BUT ALSO THE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW... INCLUDED
SOME CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE THERE IS REASONABLE
CONSENSUS THAT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
BY THAT POINT IN TIME. ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THINGS... RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK... WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE 90 CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER UPSTREAM CONVECTION
AND THE CLOUDINESS IT COULD CREATE FOR US... AS WELL AS TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES... DIDN/T GO NEARLY AS ADIABATIC MIXING MIGHT
SUGGEST. AS WE GET NEARER IN TIME SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
HIGHS WILL CERTAINLY BE MADE... AND WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE
UPWARD UNLESS PCPN OR SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN/EC SD HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE
SE...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SC MN.
HOWEVER...-SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
HEAVIER SHRA NEAR RWF/AXN BETWEEN 6-12Z. CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS
STC/RNH/MSP AS THE LATEST RAP HAS MORE DEVELOPMENT AFT 6Z ACROSS
CENTRAL MN...EXTENDING SE TOWARD MSP. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
MASS...WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH AT THESE PLACES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA BY 12Z. RNH/EAU...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
TSRA/SHRA UNTIL AFT 12Z. WNDS WILL BECOME SE/ESE OVERNIGHT AND
BEGIN TO GUSTS DURING THE MORNING.
MSP...SHRA/TSRA IN EC SD/SW MN WILL HOLD IN THIS AREA THRU 9Z.
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AFT 9Z...SO WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE VCSH BY 9Z. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM BASED ON THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...OR AT LEAST
UNTIL AFT 12-15Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE SE TOWARD MSP BY 12Z. MORE ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
OUTLOOK...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
/JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIES JUST SOUTH OF GREAT
FALLS AND STRETCHES BACK THROUGH MEAGHER COUNTY. HRRR PRODUCT A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AS IT DEPICTS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AS STAYING
TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. EMANUEL
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW SHORT-LIVED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY GO. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED MID-/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW EVE MAINLY FROM KGTF TO KCTB WITH
CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS VCNTY KCTB AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION AS A STALLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA.
CONVECTION TODAY WAS LIMITED BY A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND
A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MINOR DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY IN IDAHO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS SATURDAY LOOK
VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY CONVECTIVE SUPPORT MOVES INTO CANADA AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP THUS ENDING MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
ZONES UNDERNEATH MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROF TO THE WEST. THE TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT
GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND BRING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE DECREASING TO THE EAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL HAVE RATHER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM THE
WEST WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ZELZER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-TEENS...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRIMARY AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE MID-SLOPE AND VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND HELENA THROUGH
BROADWATER AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES TO NORTHERN GALLATIN
COUNTY (ESSENTIALLY ALL OF FIRE ZONE 118 AND PARTS OF FIRE ZONE
116). DISCUSSION WITH FIRE MANAGERS INDICATE THAT FUEL MOISTURE IN
LIGHT FUEL TYPES IS ALREADY NEAR-CRITICAL BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
HEAVIER FUELS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CRITERIA AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ON SUN/MON...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WEEKEND SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE WINDS AND UPDATE
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS NEEDED. WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 55 78 56 88 / 20 20 20 10
CTB 54 70 54 78 / 40 60 70 20
HLN 56 84 55 91 / 10 20 20 10
BZN 48 86 50 92 / 10 10 10 0
WEY 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 50 83 50 87 / 10 0 10 10
HVR 56 78 58 89 / 30 30 20 10
LWT 52 78 55 86 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMANUEL/GUSTAFSON
LONG TERM...ZELZER
AVIATION...BLANK
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
136 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR
60 MPH WELL BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL
FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-
040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL
FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIKELY COMING TO AN END AROUND 12Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
EXPECT CEILINGS IN INCREASE AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENTAND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON ONGOING HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
110 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE WATCH AND SEVERE WORDING IN
ZONES. LOW LEVEL JET IS AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER SEVERE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED AS MOST STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE ELEVATED.
&&
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.
EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
SCT TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN WY LATE THIS
AFTN...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD TONIGHT.
SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.
EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...WFO UNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue through early
Saturday morning. Additional locally heavy rain can be expected.
More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as low
pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally move out
of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier and more
stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Clearing over eastern WA and the Panhandle is allowing
temperatures to finally warm into the 80s. Coupled with the upper
40s to lower 50s dew points, the atmosphere should destabilize
rather nicely. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late this
afteroon. Convection has started to fire in the Clearwater Mtns,
similar to the HRRR forecast. Based on this I have a bit more
confidence in the HRRR, and so we`re looking at three potential
areas of convection.
The first is over the Clearwaters which should continue to fire
and propagate northward through the ID Panhandle this evening. The
second is forecast on the back end of the clouds moving into the
Okanogan Highlands. The convection would move northwest into the
north Cascades. The third area of convection would be over
northeast OR ahead of the main cloud band moving into the area
this evening. This convection would track along the ID/WA border
area this evening.
CAPE values are certainly supportive of moderate-sized hail. 0-6km
shear is good, but not great. Enough to keep the storms from being
pulse in nature but not sure there`s enough to make supercells.
Heavy rain is still possible in the Cascades. But since the storms
should be moving at a decent speed and this area hasn`t had a lot
of rain recently I`m thinking that the flash flood threat is
minimal. RJ
Saturday through Monday: Closed low will remain off the Oregon
coast through Monday. Models are in good agreement of pieces of
energy ejecting from the low and moving through the forecast area.
This will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. Saturday is the best day for more widespread showers
across the region. Instability parameters such as CAPE, LI and 0-6
km shear show very favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development Saturday. The best area of instability will stretch
up the Idaho Panhandle from Shoshone county north to the Canadian
border and bending back toward the northeast mountains of WA. Kept
the likely thunderstorm wording for the afternoon for these
locations and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Elsewhere,
slight chance exists across the basin, with a chance of thunder
along the Cascades and Spokane/Palouse, Okanogan areas. Sunday and
Monday there is still a threat of showers, but there is less
moisture to work with and the axis of instability is further east.
The best area of showers and thunderstorms will be across
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. With less moisture there is
also the possibility of less cloud cover, and with less cloud
cover, we could actually warm to near or slightly above average
temperatures. /Nisbet
Monday night through Friday: The persistent upper-low currently
off the WA coast will lift to the northeast through the region
bringing one last round of heavier precipitation before relatively
drier conditions settle in. Models are in decent agreement that
the low will lift E/NE through the area but still illustrate
subtle differences on timing, strength, and how much of its energy
pinches off and lingers over the region on Wed...yet they have come
into much better agreement then runs 24 hours ago. Following the
passage of the low pressure system, the general consensus amongst
the models is to strengthen a ridge of high pressure over the Pac
NW yielding mostly dry conditions for most locations. I use mostly
dry wording due to each model depicting several very small
midlevel impulses drifting under the ridge which could lead to
localized areas of deeper instability and chance for afternoon
showers/thunderstorms. We have utilized a blend of the EC/GFS for
the Monday night/Tuesday period and trend toward their ensemble
means thereafter.
This resulted in Monday night and Tuesday being the wettest days
of the period with models showing upwards of a quarter to three
quarters of an inch (heavier in thunderstorms) possible through
Tuesday night. The slower and more negatively tilted EC spreads
precipitation across all locations in this period while the quicker
GFS focuses more on the eastern third of WA and ID Panhandle...in
response to developing westerly flow in the lee of the Cascades.
The precipitation threat shifts toward the Canadian border for
Tuesday night and potentially into Wednesday afternoon (per slower
EC). By Wednesday night through Friday, upper-level ridging will
be the more dominate weather feature leading to a warming and
drying trend at most locations. As mentioned above, we will likely
be monitoring a few midlevel small-scale circulations each capable
of a introducing a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Given how
far out these events are and lack of QPF in the models, the
forecast indicates dry conditions based on the large scale
subsidence under the ridge but could may need to be adjusted over
small areas when and where these circulations track.
Temperatures will be cooling below normal on Wednesday with
abundant cloud cover and rainfall then begin a slow warming trend
each day returning near to above normal by Friday. SB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Attempted to time the end of the showers and thunderstorms
based on radar and rapid update guidance. KLWS should be done with
the thunder by 08Z, then the Spokane area by 09Z. Further west
showers will be ending around the same time. With all the moisture
left behind, some low clouds will linger in the Spokane area but not
expecting any cieling or visibility issues at the terminals.
Redevelopment is forecast for Saturday afternoon, with showers and
isolated thunderstorms over extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. JL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 74 53 75 50 79 / 90 70 60 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 57 73 53 76 50 80 / 90 80 70 20 10 10
Pullman 53 71 49 75 49 77 / 80 70 60 10 10 10
Lewiston 61 80 55 83 54 83 / 70 60 40 10 10 10
Colville 58 76 52 78 49 85 / 90 80 70 40 10 10
Sandpoint 55 73 52 73 48 79 / 90 90 80 40 20 20
Kellogg 54 71 50 77 48 79 / 90 80 70 40 20 20
Moses Lake 58 79 53 80 53 82 / 70 50 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 59 74 51 77 52 79 / 70 60 30 10 0 10
Omak 59 76 50 78 48 83 / 90 70 50 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM...RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING
PLACE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER JUST ABOUT EVERY PEAK
IN THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD POOL WITH H500 TEMPS ANALYZED BY RUC AT
-19C MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AREA. COLDEST UPPER LEVEL TEMPS
WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALY FORECAST AREA AND SO BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ACROSS NORTH. HOWEVER...ALBANY 12Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWED
ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATER TODAY AROUND MAX HEATING THAT A
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER ANY PART OF THE AREA. WHILE A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MOST STORMS WILL HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SOME SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THINGS LOOKS TO QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
AS COLD POOL MOVES EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS
AND SOME 12 NAM DATA.
PREVIOUS...
A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS STILL SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES IS TRACKING
TOWARD OUR REGION. SOME NEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TODAY ALONG THE DEW POINT
BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE DEW
POINT BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SOME
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG THE
SECONDARY SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY NOW...AND SOME OF THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL WIND
CONVERGENCE.
SO...EASTERN AREAS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF CLOUD COVER
MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. CLOUD SHIELD IS MAKING PROGRESS EAST. ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE OF
COOLING AND DRYING TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S...SOME 70S COOLER AREAS SUCH AS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US
LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER
LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP
ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS
AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL
FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH
21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR KPOU.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
827 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102
IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM
TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER.
HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC
TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-
DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES
INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
+17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS
NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE
HIGHLIGHTS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY
BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A
FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS
AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DELIVER VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WIND FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDT
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
UPDATE TO ZFP AND WRKAFP FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME WEAK VORTICITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. CHECKING THE NEW
WRF SOUNDING FOR HARLOWTON...CIN WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 50 J/KG BY
00Z. LOW TO MID-LEVEL E FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THIS AREA...AND THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
FORCING ALOFT...COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT THE GOING POPS ALONE. THE 12Z
WRF AND LATEST HRRR KEPT THE REGION DRY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WAS LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
EXPECT VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY. THE LONGER THE FRONT HOLDS OFF THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AND WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING COULD SEE
AREAS FROM BILLINGS EAST WELL INTO THE 100S IF FRONT HOLDS OFF
UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOKS WEAK
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH EARLY WEEK MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO
WARM TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION AND LATER WEEK WINDS DOWNSLOPING
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE 80S. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY
SATURDAY FOR TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.
GRASS FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE GREENNESS
DATA SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 70 TO 85 PERCENT OF THE GRASS
ALREADY CURED OUT. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF 90-100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GRASSES WILL ONLY
GET DRIER. LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT
AND DON`T SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADD LIGHTNING
STARTS...BUT WITH FOURTH OF JULY APPROACHING FIREWORKS WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR FIRE STARTS IN THE NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE CONCERN IN HWO AND GRAPHIC
AND WILL CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH LATER SHIFTS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH AN MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A KLVM-KLWT LINE. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 061/099 066/099 068/096 059/088 059/084 060/085
0/U 10/U 01/B 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T
LVM 087 051/095 057/093 059/088 050/083 050/081 050/081
1/U 10/N 01/U 22/T 20/U 01/U 12/T
HDN 091 057/101 062/101 065/099 056/090 057/086 057/086
0/U 10/G 01/G 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T
MLS 090 062/097 068/102 070/100 062/090 061/086 061/085
1/U 10/U 01/G 23/T 31/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 089 061/094 067/100 069/099 061/090 060/085 060/085
1/U 10/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 12/T 12/T
BHK 084 060/087 064/096 067/098 061/089 059/083 058/082
1/N 10/N 02/T 22/T 21/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 093 056/098 062/096 064/095 056/087 055/082 054/082
0/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 21/U 11/U 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
953 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL TRENDS. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...I STILL TOPPED THEM IN 40-50-ISH RANGE FOR ONEIDA
COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES WHERE PWAT WILL
BE NEAR AN INCH. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO
POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE
PRETTY COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT
WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE
POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND
THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP
SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER
MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z
EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG
WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER
TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR
KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT
KELM.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG.
SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN
TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND
MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO
RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92.
THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES
WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM
EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
-SMITH
TONIGHT:
EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE
EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS OUR
REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE L/W TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST COVERING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY WE`LL SEE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
AIRMASS ASSOC WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER...
AS INDICATED BY CRASHING THICKNESS AND PWAT VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT... SUPPORTING HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND
LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW 60S. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT (0.25-0.4IN /
DAY) AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (10-15M /DAY)...THUS EXPECT
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK NW FLOW
PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BACK UP TO 90 BY
THURSDAY AND THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASING PWAT...WILL
BRING POPS TO NEAR-CLIMO VALUES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) BY FRIDAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH DON`T EXPECT
MUCH BEYOND ISOLATED ACTIVITY GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISMS.
IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT FOR NOW...WHATEVER COMES OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC WEATHER AS
THE CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT EASTWARD OVER TIME KEEP
IT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS
AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY
LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE
LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU
SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING
SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BSD/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1044 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT THROUGH 00 UTC TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE MOVED INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
BEMIDJI TO FARGO. REMOVED ALL POPS THROUGH 18 UTC EXCEPT IN THIS
AREA WHERE A STRAY HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAY FALL.
15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM HALLOCK
TO COOPERSTOWN TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POOLING ALONG BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST
MLCAPE WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH OF A
CAP...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF AN 850 HPA JET IS
ABSENT. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM REMAINS NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER...BUT
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS. SPC PAINTS 5
PERCENT HAIL THRESHOLD ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 18 UTC ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT TIMING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT KEPT THEM
IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
SPATIAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ADD SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL
STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES.
MOST RECENT MODELS HAVE ALL INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE WYO ALTHOUGH QPF IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SW HALF OF FA GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION AND ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. MAIN UPPER SUPPORT TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE LARGE MCS ALONG SD/NE BORDER AREA
LIKELY INTERCEPTING DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FA THIS AM AND WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES GREATER THAN AN
INCH AND FAVORABLE SHEAR EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING. FARTHER NORTH AIRMASS MORE STABLE SO WILL CONFINED POPS TO
MAINLY SOUTH HALF OF FA.
LATER TODAY SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH
FAVORED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY EXPECT
MORE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
SWINGS SE. FAVORED INSTABILITY/CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA HOWEVER
WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTH ANY WHERE ALONG BOUNDARY
HAS SOME POTENTIAL. SOLAR WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY SO
DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL UNSURE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD LIKELY SEE
A FEW STRONG STORMS.
BOUNDARY EXITS FA TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSS OF
HEATING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. BASED ON BOUNDARY
LOCATION WILL LIMIT POPS LATER TONIGHT TO FAR EASTERN FA. ONLY
SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH COLUMN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
DOES MOVE IN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY FOR PLENTY OF SOLAR AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL WARMING. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN
THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PHASES
BACK UP WITH THE ECMWF. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THU.
STABILITY DECREASES ON TUESDAY HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. WILL LOWER POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. ECMWF KEEP
UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAPPED ATMOSPHERE YET ON THU. WILL TRIM BACK POPS
SOME THU.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/DK/VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH
COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING
TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS
TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER
WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO
65.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT
TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A
FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED
BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER
WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER
END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BOARDER WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING MAY BE HAMPERED SOME
TODAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE
MENTION OF FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS FOR CONFIDENCE
REASONS...IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
UNABLE TO MIX OUT TODAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE
HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE
DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000
J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO
BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL.
WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL
IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE.
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED
DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A
ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN
THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A
DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION
IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT.
ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS
AND SOME 12 NAM DATA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US
LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER
LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP
ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS
AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD POOL HAS PRODUCED +TSRA/-SHRA
OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KGFL HAS HAD THUNDERSTORM
AROUND 17Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR KPOU.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS TONIGHT INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 7KT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BT MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTSON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD POOL
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME PEA-SIZE
HAIL...AND ONE REPORT TO PEANUT M&M`S...SO ABOUT DIME SIZE. THE
DIME SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS FROM LAKE PLEASANT. THE LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE STEEP...BUT THE INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITER WITH SBCAPES OF GENERALLY 500-1000
J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS HIGHER. THE BEST STORM AT 17Z CONTINUES TO
BE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE 50 DBZ CORE EXCEEDING 30 KFT AGL.
WE HAVE NOT SEEM THE 50 DBZ REF CORE HEIGHTS EXCEED 25-27 KFT AGL
IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY SOME STRONG STORMS THUS FAR...BUT NO SEVERE.
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED
DATABASE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE COULD STILL BE A
ROGUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN
THE LATE PM. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ARE IN A
DRIER MORE STABLE REGION...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION
IN LOCATIONS THAT WERE HIT HARD YESTERDAY /MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT.
ALY GRIDDED DATABASE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON OBS TRENDS
AND SOME 12 NAM DATA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING TOWARD US
LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE A THE UPPER
LOW CENTERS IN THE REGION LATER MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WITH THE
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. BEING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE THE SHOWERS...AS WELL AS ANY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK
DUE TO OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP
ON OUR REGION...AS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL WITH RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS WARMING OCCURS
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS
AND/OR COLD FRONT PASSAGES. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A PROBABILITY EXISTS TO MENTION A TEMPO AT KGFL
FOR THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH
21Z. CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND KALB/KPSF...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND THUS ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LOWER FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR KPOU.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
FAVORED LOCATIONS KGFL/KPSF BUT ALSO ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KT BY LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN MRNG-SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
SUN NGT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA...WITH POSS AFTN/EVE TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING HAVE NOW MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (OFB) HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OSAGE COUNTY...THEN NORTHWARD TO EAST OF MARYSVILLE. NORTHEAST OF
THIS OFB...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. WHILE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE OFB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KS. THOUGH
THE HRRR AND ARW DID SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
ALONG THE NE BORDER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OFB ALONG THE NE BORDER. I
INSERTED 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS BROWN...NEMAHA...JACKSON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN CASE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE TO
THE KS BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO
THE 29 TO 32 DEGREE C RANGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 102 TO 104
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ATTM...I ONLY HAVE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 103
DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...THEN HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GARGAN
LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT.
...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN EXPECTED TO FORCE A HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ANY MODIFYING OR COOLING INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE MODEST WITH EAST WINDS MON INTO TUES YET HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH MON/TUES. WIDE SPREAD OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MON/TUES AND PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
WARMER NUMBERS GIVEN COOL BIAS OF GFS BASED NUMBERS.
HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDS INTO THURS AS UPPER
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND
100 AND PERHAPS 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA
WITH AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE EAST OF KTOP AND KFOE BY 19Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS TO 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 21 TO 28
KTS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT 100 DEGREES NEAR KIT CARSON COLORADO. 15Z
RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES AND STILL MAINTAINS
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 105 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO 110-112 FROM
HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TEMPS AND RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT YIELD HEAT INDICES OF
105-107 DEGREES. PER COORDINATION WITH DDC AND GID FORECAST
OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM CDT THROUGH 8 PM
CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
LATEST 12Z NAM 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 102
IN THE FLAGLER AREA TO 110 IN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK. 2M NAM
TEMPERATURES ALSO VERY SIMILAR. 9Z RUC TEMPERATURES A TAD HOTTER.
HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WIND BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. SFC
TROUGH SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-
DAY THEN RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
HILL CITY AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT MOVES
INTO THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
+17 TO +20 C. AND H8-H7 LAYER MEAN RH IS LACKING. THE NET RESULT IS
NIL POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
BELOW CRITERIA EACH DAY. FUELS AND RH VALUES ARE CRITICAL BUT WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT. FOR THESE REASONS DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE
HIGHLIGHTS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY AND MAY
BRIEFLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
FA. A FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
OMEGA PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE 500MB HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
INITIALLY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONS ITSELF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A
FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND COMBINED WITH
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION THURS
AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FOR KGLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 00Z.
THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD THE
TERMINAL.
FOR KMCK SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
TODAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ004-015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...007
CLIMATE...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...THEN A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS ONTARIO FROM NEAR YQK THEN
DROPPING INTO NODAK AND FAR NW CORNER MN. ONE AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
DVLPG ACROSS ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER E-W BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
NODAK. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF THE NODAK AREA
ALLOWING IT TO EXPAND SE THIS EVE/TNGHT INTO CNTRL MN/WC WI AHD OF
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO/NE MN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. CDFNT DROPS INTO N MN THIS EVENING AND
THEN PICKS UP SPEED LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR IA BORDER BY 12Z.
NICE DRY AIRMASS PUSHES INTO AREA IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS 1025 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING INTO
THE 40S MAINLY ACROSS WI CWA WITH NE DRY NE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN ACROSS AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WORK BACK INTO AREA.
VERY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS AOA 590 DM INTO SW MN. SHUD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS
IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WC MN. MID LEVEL TEMPS PRETTY WARM
WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROF MOVING THRU BRING A
BIT COOLER AIRMASS INTO AREA. COOLER WNW FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR
BALANCE OF FORECAST WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN IA THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR A WARM FRONT...BUT ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ORIGINATING OUT OF VFR CEILINGS. WI AIRPORTS STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. SOME OF THE WEATHER MODELS
WE LOOK AT ARE SHOWING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND THERE
ARE IN FACT A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN FAR WESTERN
MN AND THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DON`T THINK THIS WILL
BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THE TAF SITES GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE MODELS AND ALSO SIMPLY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WOULD BE MORE
CONFIDENT IF WE WERE GETTING OUR HAD MUCH MORE RAIN .
KMSP...NO REAL AVIATION CONCERNS WITH CIGS/VIS HOLDING NEAR
10000FT. ALREADY SEEING A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE
TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...
.SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN
NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST
OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN GENERAL...HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS MEDIUM RANGE
OUTLOOK APPEARS TO FEATURE SOMEWHAT DRAMATIC CHANGES AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A FLAT AND WARM
RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTING THAT CNY/NEPA WILL BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...MINOR IMPULSES ARE LIKELY TO TRANSIT THE AREA AT ANY TIME
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL DRYING IN THE
MEAN RH FIELDS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND WILL REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TANDEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A 1-2 SD ANOMALOUS WARMING DEVELOPING IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
MOS/HPC GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHILE DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
FRIDAY WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE 90 AGAIN. LASTLY...TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS. HPC/TPC LEANING WITH THE ECMWF AND
BRING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO REAL
EFFECT TO US SHOWING UP DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VCNTY OF
KRME THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF SCT-BKN VFR CU
FIELDS ACROSS CNY AND NEPA THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCT CI OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING FOG SEEMS LIKELY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY KELM IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD. FOG ALSO
PSBL AT KRME DUE TO HVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY ONLY
MVFR. FOG CHECKLIST PARAMETERS ARE INCONCLUSIVE AT KELM FOR FOG
REDUCING CONDITIONS TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS...BUT HISTORIC CASES IN
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SUGGEST PREVAILING MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR AND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS POSSIBLE. LOW CHC THAT STATION WILL
LOCK IN FOR SVRL HOURS...BUT CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
ON SUNDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CIGS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SW AROUND 5 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA.
MON...VFR/CHC MVFR. SCT SHRA. ISOLD TSRA.
TUES...VFR. CHC SHRA.
WEDS - THUR...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1215 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN
NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES WHERE PWAT IS AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
STARTED. PWAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST
OF I-81 IN NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT
WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE
POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND
THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP
SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER
MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z
EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG
WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER
TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR
KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT
KELM.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG.
SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1205 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LET TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FURTHER...TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR MORE DETAILED LOCATIONS/BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
NOW APPARENT. WRF-ARW...RUC...AND HRRR CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS
IS LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SO WHILE I
INCREASED POPS...STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE EAST OF I-81 IN
NY...EXCEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY IN ONEIDA/NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES AROUND AN INCH AND CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED. PWAT
ELSEWHERE WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR
WILL ENTRAIN ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-81 IN
NY...AND ANYWHERE IN NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION /CAP/ FOR THESE SAME AREAS...SO POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES. WITH THOROUGH MIXING FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THOUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD BE PRETTY
COMMON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE SNDG DVLPG CAPES OF UP TO 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z NAM. WITH HTG THIS SHD DVLP SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER NY
EAST OF I81 NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...WRMR MID LVL AIR KEEPS AVBL ENERGY TO NEAR ZERO...SO NOT
XPCTG SHWRS THERE.
OTRW...MODEL MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
STILL APRCHG THE MID 80S OVER NEPA...AND UPR 70S TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF...HGTS RECVR
QUICKLY THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN IN THE WK OF TODAY/S SHRT WV
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY AFTN SHWRS. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES SHD
ALLOW FOR PTCHY VLY FOG TO DVLP LATE.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY WX WISE AS A SFC HI BLDS IN AND UPR
RDGG IS IN PLACE. VIGOROUS SHRT WV AND STRONG SFC FNT APRCHS FOR
LATE SUN. MODEL FCSTD CAPE IS MARGINAL...LIMITED BY A LACK OF LL
MOISTURE...BUT A FVRBL UPR LVL JET PSN WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND
PSBL TRWS. STRONG MID LVL WINDS WILL MAKE ANY CONV WORTH WATCHING.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MON AS A CLSD UPR LOW DROPS INTO TO
UPSTATE NY. INSTABILITY SHWRS WILL DVLP MON AND CONT INTO MON EVE.
MODEL GUID IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD LEADING TO A
HIGHER THAN NRML CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP AND POP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW KEEPING US UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW BEING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY...THAT
WE MAY END UP DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR GOING FORECAST OF CHANCE
POPS ALONE GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE OFFICES AROUND US AND
THE FACT THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS FARTHER WEST AND MAY KEEP
SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST. AS THE FORECASTER
MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT DOES APPEAR WE DRY OUT TOWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH GNRLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN EARLY NXT WEEK. ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO INDICATE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS NXT THURSDAY AS 00Z
EURO/12Z GFS SUGGESTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM UPDATE...
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT...WITH SOME BKN CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KRME LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KRME BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG
WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER
TEMP)...UNDER LIGHT WINDS. STILL FAR OUT SO JUST DID A TEMPO FOR
KELM FOR IFR AND MVFR AT KAVP...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IF
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD...PREVAILING LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY AT
KELM.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUN...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG.
SUN (DAYTIME)...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO WED...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS
STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED
VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TONIGHT...
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO
SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUNDAY...
A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
IN ERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED PUSH OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT... AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. EXPECT RESIDUAL DAYTIME CONVECTION TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING... LIKELY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS
AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOLDING
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RECOVERING SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE NAM HOLDS
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE FROM THE GULF STATES NOSING INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ALONG WITH PW VALUES OVER 150% OF NORMAL. WITH THIS
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BASED ON THE MEAN STEERING FLOW FROM THE
WNW... STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST DURING THE NIGHT... AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESSES JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST... WE MAY SEE PERSISTENT SLOW-MOVING OR EVEN BACKBUILDING
ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. AT THE VERY
LEAST... THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IS QUITE HIGH... AND A SHROUD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING FROM
SUCH ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF RALEIGH IN THE EVENING...
DECREASING A BIT AND BECOMING SUPPRESSED IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NC
LATE. WARM LOWS OF 69-73.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN THE
EASTERN STATES... OUR WIND FIELDS IMPROVE WHILE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE
NAM`S DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 KTS... AND
MLCAPE (PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GSO) INCREASES TO 2000-3000
J/KG WITH 30-50 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 100+ KT JET CORE CENTERED OVER MI NOSING TOWARD NC)
MAXIMIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS WILL K-INDEX VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
POTENTIALLY BECOMING ORGANIZED FROM NE TO SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
HEADING TOWARD THE ESE OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RISK
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS... AND MODEL-INDICATED CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER SUGGESTS A RISK OF HAIL AS WELL. GOOD HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH UP HIGHS TO 89-93. LOWS 62 NORTHWEST TO 68
SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT EASES TO THE SSE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS
AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND
STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A
THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCLT TO KPGV THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS DRIFTED AND REMAINED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS PROJECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS
STILL SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TRIANGLE AREA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS HAVE BUDGED
VERY LITTLE TODAY... STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 25KT...SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH MERGING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TONIGHT...
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...SO
SOME CIRRUS MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND RH CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST FOG IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN A LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUNDAY...
A WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A RIDGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA E IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AND A A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
OVER SD/NE TODAY....WILL HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...LEADING TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. COMBINED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HIGHS 88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS
AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND
STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A
THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN
TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND
MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO
RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92.
THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES
WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM
EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
-SMITH
TONIGHT:
EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE
EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY WITH DECKS
AT 2-3K FT AND ALSO JUST ABOVE 10K FT. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM KCLT TO KPGV...WITH LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 19Z AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...KFAY AND KRWI WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OF CONVECTION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AND
STORMS WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST FOG MAY BE MORE OF A
THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IS IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST KFAY AND KRWI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN NC AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BSD/NP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 SATURDAY...
DRYING ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE WEAK OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH PW VALUES DOWN
TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE TRAILING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO KRWI AND KPGV. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS CHANGE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S...AND
MODELS PROJECT ONLY A SLIGHT FALL IN DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE 12Z KGSO
RAOB WAS 1407M...DOWN 13M FROM FRIDAY MORNING....WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY UNDER FULL HEATING...89-92.
THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HRRR AND HI-RES
WRF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY 19Z AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
LOW...REACHING MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25KT WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL JET
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY...SO STORM
EVOLUTION WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS. 25-35
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 64 SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
-SMITH
TONIGHT:
EXPECTED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL WAYNE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID/LATE
EVENING... WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKING OVER. THUS... WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REDUCE POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN IN THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS... WILL AGAIN LEAD
TO A THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPS... GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A MUGGY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING IN
THE DISTURBANCES WAKE. THUS... ANY LOCATIONS AGAIN THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BSD
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FINAL S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE L/W TROUGH OVER NE NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENINGS HOURS. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF US BY LATE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY
NIGHT THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT A WIDER RANGE OF LOW
TEMPS...FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. -NP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OF LATE... THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY BEFORE WOBBLING TO THE NNE INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY (THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS LOW IN RECENT RUNS)... AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NC THROUGH MID WEEK. COOL CANADIAN-SOURCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CORRESPONDING 850 MB ANTICYCLONE
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILD INTO NC FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... BY 25-30 METERS TUESDAY AND 15-20
METERS WEDNESDAY... EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY AND
MID-UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY... WITH STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS
OVER NC THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY SHIFTS ESE TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BY SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY DRY
PERIOD... WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY WEAKENING
BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH QUICK LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT... WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE (ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF) THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WESTERLIES DIPPING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE NC (AS THE VORTEX NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EVENTUALLY PUSHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY)... LEADING TO
IMPROVING SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEAR-NORMAL
THICKNESSES THURSDAY WARM UP TO 15-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 25C...
THUS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S -- AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
100 -- BY THE WEEKEND. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS.)
A SIDE NOTE... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFERRING A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM (RATHER THAN THE OP GFS WHICH IS ALONE
TAKING THE LOW EASTWARD OVER FL)... THE NHC EXPECTS IT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK WOULD MEAN NO IMPACT FOR
NC... BUT BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE... PEOPLE
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS
AND SUB VFR VISBYS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO QUICKLY
LIFT THIS MORNING... WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY 13 OR 14Z AT THE
LATEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM KRDU
SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME FOR KRWI AND KFAY... GIVEN THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY END/DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING OR SO. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER... ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WRT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE/PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER... SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AND EARLY MORNING
SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:
JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)
JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BSD/NP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL A
BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A MAXIMUM IN THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. THESE
STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING
AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO CARRINGTON TO BISMARCK.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND AND BEGINNING TO SEE MORE PRONOUNCED CU
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL NEED
FORCING ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 300 HPA JET MAXIMUM IS
STILL NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS APPROACHING 50
KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR STILL SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION AND WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS LARGE
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
INCREASE TO BETWEEN +18 AND +22 C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...BUT CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE
PERIOD...COOLING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SAT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND WARM
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY KEEP US DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY FRI FOR
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...BUT EVEN THEN IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME VCTS TO MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
SOUTH. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT/
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHOWERS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME CU FORM BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
WARMING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TODAY. DID RAISE THEM SOME ACROSS
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...HOWEVER WITH
COOLER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING
TO BE RATHER WEAK. THUS DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
FOR TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF ARW...GIVING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS EXITED THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
SEEING SOME LOW BASED MVFR CU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT THESE BASES SHOULD BECOME HIGHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT DEALS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS
POTENTIAL. NAM AND GFS NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG POTENTIAL. WE ARE MIXING
MORE THAN FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE THREAT SOME. HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THINKING BEST CHANCE OF FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
PUT IN THE TAFS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT/
MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING OFF OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
DECENT SIZED MCS TO FORM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY HEAVY RAIN AT THIS
TIME AS THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO SUPPORT THAT. WILL STAY TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND BOUNDARY APPEARING TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM/NAM12 OUTPUT FOR HIGHS...WHICH MEAN LOWER TO
MID 70S IN THE EAST TO 80 TO 85 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING A BIT
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING A MODERATE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN EITHER PERIOD WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
SUPPRESSING ANY THREAT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BRING WINDS AROUND
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR STILL LOCKED IN PLACE HOWEVER
WITH LESS MIXY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS FROM ABOUT 55 TO
65.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM IF NOT HOT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BUT
TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT OUT NICELY. WILL AIM FOR 95 TO 100
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND 90 TO 95 ALONG THE JAMES RIVER. MAY BE A
FEW CLOUDS AROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/FRI)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED
BY ALL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING FASTER
WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY POTENT 700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE CAPPING
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN. NO MAJOR THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST SOME LOWER
END POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
252 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies again today and tonight. Some of the
thunderstorms could be strong and capable of producing heavy rain
and gusty winds. Showers should be more scattered on Sunday and
Monday, and mainly limited to the mountainous areas of the Inland
Northwest. There is a good chance that Tuesday will be cool, rainy
and breezy as a vigorous low pressure system moves through the
region. A warming and drying trend is likely Wednesday through
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: Another active evening in store. Large low
pressure system continues to send short waves through our area
with moist southerly flow. One wave fired severe convection this
morning over northeast WA. That convection died off but more is
just starting to develop. SPC has this area in a slight risk for
this evening. HRRR suggests that this convection will move
north/east of our area in the next few hours. Meanwhile another
short wave has created a line of convection that has moved into
south- central WA. PDT has already warned on the storm near Walla
Walla. HRRR predicts this storm to move onto the Palouse for the
next couple of hours.
Behind this there is still additional showers/storms over central
OR that will move into our area tonight. While we will be lacking
the daytime heating the continued support from aloft means that
this activity probably won`t just shut off with sunset.
Shower activity on Monday should be confined to the northern
Mountains. Thunderstorms are still a possibility but the strongest
storms should be well to our north and east. RJ
Sunday night through Monday: Deep upper level pressure system will
continue to spin off the Northwest coastline. An upper level wave
rotating around the low on Sunday will head north of the region
as some short wave ridging of higher pressure moves into the
region. This will result in much of the region drying out and
warming up a bit for Monday. We will remain very unstable with
CAPEs across eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle 400-800
J/KG. However, this instability will come with around 20-80 J/KG of
convective inhibition (CIN). Models do not show any waves of energy
moving across the region on Monday afternoon with the short wave
ridging, thus I do not think we will be able to realize this
convective energy. The mountains will have the best shot at some
showers. The Panhandle mountains will have the easiest time to
break the cap with around 20 J/KG of CIN. We may see a
thunderstorm or two across these mountains, thus I left a slight
chance of thunderstorms here.
Monday night into Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system
offshore will finally push into the region as it moves off to the
northeast through Oregon and finally into British Columbia/Alberta
by Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate a moist and very
dynamic system as the low passes through the region. We will see
an increasing chance for showers late Monday night with the bulk
of the rainfall moving through during the day on Tuesday.
Considering the good agreement between models and the high
precipitation amounts being produced, I bumped up POPs and QPF
values significantly. The Okanogan Highlands over to the northern
Panhandle will likely pick up to around 0.50 to 1.0 inch Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Some instability accompanying the low pressure
passage may result in some thunderstorms across the eastern two-
thirds of the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will be much colder
with this system. /SVH
Tuesday night through Saturday: Closed low will continue to exit
the region as a ridge builds across the intermountain west.
Tuesday night residual showers are possible, mainly along the
US/Canadian border. After that, we dry out and start to warm
up. There is some model discrepancy about what to do Friday and
the weekend. The previous four runs of the ECMWF showed a
negatively tilted trough moving across the area starting Friday
afternoon. However, the latest run holds the ridge strong, and is
more like the GFS. Kept some mountain showers across the north
and cascades through Saturday given the uncertainty at this time.
Temperatures Wednesday will start to increase, but still be
several degrees below average. Then Thursday through Saturday we
will see temperatures at least average, with Friday being the
warmest day with temps about 5 degrees above average for this time
of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Washington
this morning. This activity should continue through 21Z before
gradually moving into southern BC. More thunderstorms will develop
along the ID/MT border this afternoon. Additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move into the area from Oregon this
afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with
these showers. Abundant clouds tonight should prevent the formation
of widespread fog or stratus but localized IFR cig/vis is possible.
RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 76 53 81 54 62 / 60 30 10 10 30 80
Coeur d`Alene 56 76 53 82 53 61 / 70 40 10 10 30 80
Pullman 53 74 51 79 51 64 / 60 10 10 10 40 80
Lewiston 59 84 58 86 59 72 / 40 10 10 10 40 70
Colville 53 76 51 85 53 61 / 70 60 10 10 30 90
Sandpoint 55 75 49 80 51 57 / 80 60 10 20 20 90
Kellogg 53 76 53 82 52 57 / 70 30 10 20 40 90
Moses Lake 54 81 52 84 56 71 / 20 20 0 10 40 50
Wenatchee 54 78 54 81 56 68 / 30 20 0 0 40 40
Omak 52 78 50 84 54 68 / 50 60 10 10 30 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$