Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/22/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1114 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH STRATUS DECK STARTING TO MIX OUT AND WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
PRETTY WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS AROUND PARK COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE
THE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO HANG ON IN THAT AREA. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECTING THE CEILING IN THE DENVER AREA TO BREAK UP
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...COOL MOIST LAYER HAS PUSHED ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF
THE WAY UP THE EAST SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE...BUT LOOKS TO BE
MIXING WITH THE DRIER AIR AS THE WINDS PUSH FURTHER WEST. WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PARK FIRE AND AND THE SPRINGER FIRE MAY STILL BE
IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND COULD HAVE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIXING DOWN LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES. HOTTER/BREEZIER/VERY DRY ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...EVALUATING FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2012/
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST PRESSURE RISE
CENTER PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA...HELPING LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN A BIT NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH EVEN THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SAME SCENARIO JUST WITHOUT THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION. NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP LINE OF
SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BATTLING UPPER 30S
AND 40S DEWPOINTS BACKING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH PARK DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PERHAPS LOWER FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS TODAY WITH THE RATHER STRONG AND DEEP COLD
ADVECTION. EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...GRIDDED TEMP FIELDS SHOW ABOUT
10-16 DEGREES COOLING. AIRMASS WILL BE TOO COOL IN THE LOW LEVEL
TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE PARK COUNTY AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING THERE AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP. PARTIAL
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
FOR A CHANGE.
LONG TERM...COOL TEMPERATURES...OR AT LEAST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY THURSDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
MODERATE DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE PLAINS...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO RAPIDLY. EVEN THOUGH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AT MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
STATE WILL KEEP MOST CONVECTION CAPPED. MODELS ARE VERY SKIMPY IN
PRODUCING ANY QPF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER
THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WITH COLORADO UNDER WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ONCE AGAIN
ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE POPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPPORTUNITIES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPARSE AS THE STATE REMAINS CUT OFF FROM ANY
MOISTURE SOURCES. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ARCING ACROSS ARIZONA INTO UTAH NEXT TUESDAY...BUT THIS WOULD BE
TOO FAR WEST TO BRING ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN INTO COLORADO. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT PROBLEMS
FOR FIRE MANAGERS WITH NO REAL RELIEF IN SIGHT.
AVIATION...TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL NARROW EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECT A FAIRLY LOW
STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY LIFT BUT
INSTRUMENT LANDINGS MAY STILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH 18Z WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW SLOWING STRATUS DISSIPATION. BUT OVERALL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LIFT/BREAKUP FROM 16Z-19Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A 6000-7000 FT AGL CEILING REDEVELOPING
AROUND 00Z-02Z AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION.
FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DIVIDE IN A MOIST
AIRMASS BACKING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY TODAY VERSUS
MUCH DRIER AIR REMAINING OVER MUCH OF GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO EXPECT A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST
MOIST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN BOTH THE HIGH PARK AND SPRINGER FIRE
AREAS THIS MORNING PER THE HRRR...ALTHOUGH THE SPRINGER FIRE COULD
VERY WELL WOBBLE BETWEEN THE TWO AIRMASSES BEFORE THE DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS FINALLY WINS OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SUMMIT...GRAND...AND WESTERN
PARK COUNTIES WHERE THE VERY DRY ARIMASS AND LOW HUMIDITY
READINGS PREVAIL. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
407 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST PRESSURE RISE
CENTER PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA...HELPING LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN A BIT NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH EVEN THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SAME SCENARIO JUST WITHOUT THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION. NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP LINE OF
SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BATTLING UPPER 30S
AND 40S DEWPOINTS BACKING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH PARK DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PERHAPS LOWER FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS TODAY WITH THE RATHER STRONG AND DEEP COLD
ADVECTION. EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...GRIDDED TEMP FIELDS SHOW ABOUT
10-16 DEGREES COOLING. AIRMASS WILL BE TOO COOL IN THE LOW LEVEL
TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE PARK COUNTY AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING THERE AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP. PARTIAL
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
FOR A CHANGE.
.LONG TERM...COOL TEMPERATURES...OR AT LEAST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY THURSDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
MODERATE DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE PLAINS...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO RAPIDLY. EVEN THOUGH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AT MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
STATE WILL KEEP MOST CONVECTION CAPPED. MODELS ARE VERY SKIMPY IN
PRODUCING ANY QPF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER
THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WITH COLORADO UNDER WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ONCE AGAIN
ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE POPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPPORTUNITIES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPARSE AS THE STATE REMAINS CUT OFF FROM ANY
MOISTURE SOURCES. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ARCING ACROSS ARIZONA INTO UTAH NEXT TUESDAY...BUT THIS WOULD BE
TOO FAR WEST TO BRING ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN INTO COLORADO. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT PROBLEMS
FOR FIRE MANAGERS WITH NO REAL RELIEF IN SIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL NARROW EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECT A FAIRLY LOW
STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY LIFT BUT
INSTRUMENT LANDINGS MAY STILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH 18Z WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW SLOWING STRATUS DISSIPATION. BUT OVERALL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LIFT/BREAKUP FROM 16Z-19Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A 6000-7000 FT AGL CEILING REDEVELOPING
AROUND 00Z-02Z AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION.
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DIVIDE IN A MOIST
AIRMASS BACKING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY TODAY VERSUS
MUCH DRIER AIR REMAINING OVER MUCH OF GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO EXPECT A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST
MOIST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN BOTH THE HIGH PARK AND SPRINGER FIRE
AREAS THIS MORNING PER THE HRRR...ALTHOUGH THE SPRINGER FIRE COULD
VERY WELL WOBBLE BETWEEN THE TWO AIRMASSES BEFORE THE DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS FINALLY WINS OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SUMMIT...GRAND...AND WESTERN
PARK COUNTIES WHERE THE VERY DRY ARIMASS AND LOW HUMIDITY
READINGS PREVAIL. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DIGHTON TO JUST WEST
OF DODGE CITY TO NEAR LIBERAL WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE EAST INTO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR MEDICINE LODGE BY 7 PM THIS
EVENING THEN EXIT OUR FA INTO OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO UNZIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAINLY
AFTER 4 PM AND COULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO
MEADE LINE. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. UPPER TO MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD COLLAPSE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH NEW
OUTFLOW KICKING OFF MORE STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS FROM 20
TO 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A LACROSSE TO DODGE CITY
TO MEADE LINE, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS INTO 6 AM THURSDAY. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE RAINFALL
AREAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST FROM
ELKHART TO HAYS AND FROM 60 TO 65 SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF DODGE CITY WITH MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A 590+ DECAMETER 500MB HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ABOVE THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY THEN ANCHOR ITSELF AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EML TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL HELP REDEVELOP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO REACH TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 105 SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES TO MID 70S SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THESE STORMS DO FORM THEY
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND ISOLATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM HUGOTON TO JUST WEST OF KGCK AND SCOTT
CITY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WIND SHIFT EAST OF THAT LINE NEAR
LIBERAL TO KGCK TO DIGHTON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT KDDC AND KHYS BETWEEN 19 TO 21Z WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SHOWS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z FROM KHYS TO KDDC AND KLBL.
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE LINE OF STORMS JUST EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. FOR NOW WITH THE SOUNDING SHOWING A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AND JUST
TO THE EAST. CIGS COULD LOWER BRIEFLY TO MFVR CONDITIONS AROUND
03-05Z OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 84 62 91 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 59 84 60 92 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 81 64 95 / 30 10 10 10
LBL 61 82 63 94 / 30 10 10 10
HYS 58 85 59 91 / 20 0 10 10
P28 64 84 63 90 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
THE 20.00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS REVEALED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WERE TWO DISTINCT
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS...ONE NORTH OF GLASGOW, MT JUST NORTH OF
THE CANADA BORDER...AND ANOTHER ONE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
EASTERN IDAHO ENTERING WESTERN WYOMING. AN OCCLUDED LOW AT 850MB
WAS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TIED TO THE FIRST MINOR WAVE
WITH A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE OCCLUSION POINT OVER NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OF THE NEW LOW INTO
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED BOTH IN THE
WARM FRONTAL ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION AS OF 0745 UTC WAS FOUND OVER
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AROUND THE HYANNIS AREA NORTHWEST OF
NORTH PLATTE. INFRARED SATELLITE (USING A SUPER-ENHANCED COLOR CURVE)
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0745 UTC PRIMARILY DUE TO COLD POOL
GENERATION FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS THE BIG QUESTION FOR LATER ON
TODAY...SEEING AS IT WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST DEVELOP. IT SEEMS PRETTY CLEAR BASED ON ALL THE SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (AND THE LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS USING A PARAMETRIZATION SCHEME) THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTHWEST
AS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO THE NORTHERN TX-OK PANHANDLE REGION.
THE BEST FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORMS FIRST FORMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF A
HAYS TO DODGE CITY LINE IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. FAIRLY HIGH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE (2400-2800 J/KG) WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY THEN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. WIND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES 18 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN
THE HIGHEST CAPE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT GENERALLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS...BUT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE UNLIKELY. THE THINKING IS MAX HAIL SIZE OF ONE TO
PERHAPS ONE AND A HALF INCH DIAMETER AND THE TYPICAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH OR SO IN THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT. SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE STORMS WILL LEAD TO A LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.
WILL BE CARRYING LIKELY POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR ONLY THE COUNTIES
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (COMANCHE, BARBER, PRATT)...WITH POPS
RAPIDLY DECREASING TO THE NORTHWEST TO 20 PERCENT FROM ELKHART TO
JETMORE TO HAYS. ONE OR TWO STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTH (ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER) THROUGH 06Z WITH POPS DECREASING
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY DAYBREAK AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLES. SOME
REMNANT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER ON
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
OFF TO THE SOUTH BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A 590+ DECAMETER 500MB HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ABOVE THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY THEN ANCHOR ITSELF AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EML TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL HELP REDEVELOP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO REACH TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 105 SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES TO MID 70S SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THESE STORMS DO FORM THEY
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND ISOLATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM HUGOTON TO JUST WEST OF KGCK AND SCOTT
CITY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WIND SHIFT EAST OF THAT LINE NEAR
LIBERAL TO KGCK TO DIGHTON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT KDDC AND KHYS BETWEEN 19 TO 21Z WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SHOWS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z FROM KHYS TO KDDC AND KLBL.
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE LINE OF STORMS JUST EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. FOR NOW WITH THE SOUNDING SHOWING A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
JUST TO THE EAST. CIGS COULD LOWER BRIEFLY TO MFVR CONDITIONS
AROUND 03-05Z OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 84 61 90 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 62 83 59 90 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 62 81 64 94 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 64 83 62 93 / 30 20 10 10
HYS 61 85 58 91 / 20 10 10 10
P28 69 85 62 90 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
THE 20.00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS REVEALED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WERE TWO DISTINCT
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS...ONE NORTH OF GLASGOW, MT JUST NORTH OF
THE CANADA BORDER...AND ANOTHER ONE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
EASTERN IDAHO ENTERING WESTERN WYOMING. AN OCCLUDED LOW AT 850MB
WAS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TIED TO THE FIRST MINOR WAVE
WITH A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE OCCLUSION POINT OVER NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OF THE NEW LOW INTO
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED BOTH IN THE
WARM FRONTAL ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION AS OF 0745 UTC WAS FOUND OVER
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AROUND THE HYANNIS AREA NORTHWEST OF
NORTH PLATTE. INFRARED SATELLITE (USING A SUPER-ENHANCED COLOR CURVE)
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0745 UTC PRIMARILY DUE TO COLD POOL
GENERATION FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS THE BIG QUESTION FOR LATER ON
TODAY...SEEING AS IT WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST DEVELOP. IT SEEMS PRETTY CLEAR BASED ON ALL THE SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (AND THE LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS USING A PARAMETRIZATION SCHEME) THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTHWEST
AS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO THE NORTHERN TX-OK PANHANDLE REGION.
THE BEST FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORMS FIRST FORMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF A
HAYS TO DODGE CITY LINE IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. FAIRLY HIGH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE (2400-2800 J/KG) WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY THEN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. WIND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES 18 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN
THE HIGHEST CAPE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT GENERALLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS...BUT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE UNLIKELY. THE THINKING IS MAX HAIL SIZE OF ONE TO
PERHAPS ONE AND A HALF INCH DIAMETER AND THE TYPICAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH OR SO IN THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT. SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE STORMS WILL LEAD TO A LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.
WILL BE CARRYING LIKELY POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR ONLY THE COUNTIES
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (COMANCHE, BARBER, PRATT)...WITH POPS
RAPIDLY DECREASING TO THE NORTHWEST TO 20 PERCENT FROM ELKHART TO
JETMORE TO HAYS. ONE OR TWO STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTH (ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER) THROUGH 06Z WITH POPS DECREASING
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY DAYBREAK AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLES. SOME
REMNANT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER ON
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
OFF TO THE SOUTH BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE
INVASION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALL OF THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MAINTAINING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH LARGE SCALE ENERGY
PROPAGATION FROM TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN,
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS HIGH. TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY ACTIVE FROM 60E TO 80E AND APPEARS TO BE BEST
REPRESENTED BY PHASE ONE/TWO OF THE WHEELER HENDON PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAM. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A COHERENT TROPICAL
CLUSTER WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN THROUGH LATE JUNE,
AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE GLOBAL RELATIVE
ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM HAS DROPPED BELOW THE LONG TERM
AVERAGE, AND THE TENDENCY CONTINUES TO BE NEGATIVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE BE BEST REPRESENTED BY PHASE ONE OF THE WEICKMANN-
BERRY GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM. PHASE ONE
OF THE GWO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM AND PHASE TWO OF THE WHEELER HENDON
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM CORRELATE WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A TENDENCY FOR CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
NEAR 80W AND IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
STRONGER ANTICYCLONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE NEXT
WEEK AND BETTER REPRESENTS WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THE LARGE
SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FORCING.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. MOST OF THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SUGGEST
RETROGRESSION OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ANTICYCLONE TO THE
ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY. WEAKENING OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY PROVIDE INCREASED OPPORTUNITY
FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY THE FIRST PART OF JULY, BUT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH RAINFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT UNTIL THE END OF JUNE.
IN THE NEAR TERM, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS YET THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS IN NORTHERN NEVADA AT 06Z WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/VIRGA THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RETURN OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW,
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD REACH FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SOME ALTOCUMULUS WITH VIRGA OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW,
HOWEVER.
VERY HOT AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COVER KANSAS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF HAYS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SUNDAY
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN WITH
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT, BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
LIKELY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY
VARIATIONS. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 105 ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN RECENT
WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM HUGOTON TO JUST WEST OF KGCK AND SCOTT
CITY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WIND SHIFT EAST OF THAT LINE NEAR
LIBERAL TO KGCK TO DIGHTON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT KDDC AND KHYS BETWEEN 19 TO 21Z WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SHOWS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z FROM KHYS TO KDDC AND KLBL.
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE LINE OF STORMS JUST EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. FOR NOW WITH THE SOUNDING SHOWING A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
JUST TO THE EAST. CIGS COULD LOWER BRIEFLY TO MFVR CONDITIONS
AROUND 03-05Z OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 63 84 61 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 90 62 83 59 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 90 62 81 64 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 93 64 83 62 / 20 30 20 10
HYS 88 61 85 58 / 10 20 10 10
P28 94 69 85 62 / 30 50 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1048 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THIS LINE. A LONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OHIO
DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY/TN HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
KICK OFF MUCH CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT THUS FAR. GIVEN THE LOSS OF
HEATING...IT IS DOUBTFUL IT WILL KICK ANYTHING OFF IN OUR AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN A
BIT...HOLDING ONTO THE POPS THE LONGEST IN THE SOUTH...WHERE A FEW
MORE POPS UP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...DID NOT
WANT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE POPS IN THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY...SO HAVE REDUCED THESE TO ISOLATED CHANCES BY AROUND DAWN.
MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE CURRENT HOURLIES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOK ON
TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU
JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE AREA. WILL HANG
ONTO THE ISOLATED POPS A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE ASSESSING HOW LONG
OF A LULL THERE WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IF NOT
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A
POTENTIAL RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARDS DAWN AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE LATEST SREF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
SCENARIO. FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE HOURLIES TO MATCH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT
APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH
ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT
AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR
THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. AT
THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON
MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID
WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. SOME
MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
AT ANY LOCATIONS THAT MANAGED TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR AT BOTH LOZ AND SME FOR NOW TOWARDS DAWN. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AT THE
TAF SITES DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS REMAINED IN VA SO FAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER SE
KY. CUMULUS FIELD HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSTIVE AND HAVE
UPDATED NDFD WITH WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
12Z NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS CONVECTION INITIATING
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE 09Z SREF
ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. 1515Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FORMING OVER
THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AREA OF HARLAN COUNTY WITH CU EXTENDING ON INTO
WISE COUNTY VA...SO FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. MADE MINOR
UPDATE TO NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOICATED PRODUCTS TO EXPAND THE 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z NAM AND 10Z HRRR. CONVECTION MAY
FIRST INITIATE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER IN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THEN BECOMING POSSIBLE
FURTHER NW DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SOME PATCHY FOG SHOWING UP IN A FEW OBSERVATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES IN
THE 5-6 MILE RANGE. FOG ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS ON
TRACK AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN REFRESHED FOR THE MOST RECENT OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SFC AND 50H HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT TO THE COAST AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY
A 50H TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FLA. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONT WOULD ENTER EASTERN KY EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
THE PCPN EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERAL DAYS OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS PUSHED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AS EVIDENCED
BY NIGHTLY VALLEY FOG. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE 90
DEG MARK WITH ALL THE GREEN FORESTS IN EASTERN KY. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND
THU BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY TO JUST THE UPPER 80S ON FRI WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRECEEDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S PREVALENT ON
THE RIDGES AS THE COOLER AIR SINKS INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MERIDIONAL
AND UNSEASONAL AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS BROAD TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALONG THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WILL SEND DOWN SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
AFTER A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES BUT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP.
THE INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH A REASONABLE SET UP FOR POPS WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BORDERING VA WITH THE
EXITING FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. WHILE THE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ARE THERE...ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS OF A
CONCERN AS SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
COMPLICATING THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN CERTAIN AREAS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY TUESDAY...GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID LEVELS
HAVE EDGED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BASICALLY KEEP PRECIP OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AND POSSIBLY EVEN LONGER PAST
DAY 7. BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLIDES
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS STAYS TO THE NORTH AND EAST PROLONGING THE DRY
PERIOD OVER THE FA. ON A GOOD NOTE...THE PROLONGED TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS CUTS OFF THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND INTO A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS PUTS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE RIVERS AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER LATE TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FOG
TONIGHT IS NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WITH DAY TIME
HEATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1136 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
12Z NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS CONVECTION INITIATING
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE 09Z SREF
ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. 1515Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FORMING OVER
THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AREA OF HARLAN COUNTY WITH CU EXTENDING ON INTO
WISE COUNTY VA...SO FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. MADE MINOR
UPDATE TO NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOICATED PRODUCTS TO EXPAND THE 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z NAM AND 10Z HRRR. CONVECTION MAY
FIRST INITIATE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER IN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THEN BECOMING POSSIBLE
FURTHER NW DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SOME PATCHY FOG SHOWING UP IN A FEW OBSERVATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES IN
THE 5-6 MILE RANGE. FOG ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS ON
TRACK AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN REFRESHED FOR THE MOST RECENT OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SFC AND 50H HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT TO THE COAST AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY
A 50H TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FLA. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONT WOULD ENTER EASTERN KY EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
THE PCPN EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERAL DAYS OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS PUSHED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AS EVIDENCED
BY NIGHTLY VALLEY FOG. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE 90
DEG MARK WITH ALL THE GREEN FORESTS IN EASTERN KY. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND
THU BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY TO JUST THE UPPER 80S ON FRI WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRECEEDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S PREVALENT ON
THE RIDGES AS THE COOLER AIR SINKS INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MERIDIONAL
AND UNSEASONAL AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS BROAD TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALONG THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WILL SEND DOWN SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
AFTER A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES BUT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP.
THE INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH A REASONABLE SET UP FOR POPS WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BORDERING VA WITH THE
EXITING FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. WHILE THE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ARE THERE...ONCE AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS OF A
CONCERN AS SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
COMPLICATING THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN CERTAIN AREAS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY TUESDAY...GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID LEVELS
HAVE EDGED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BASICALLY KEEP PRECIP OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AND POSSIBLY EVEN LONGER PAST
DAY 7. BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLIDES
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS STAYS TO THE NORTH AND EAST PROLONGING THE DRY
PERIOD OVER THE FA. ON A GOOD NOTE...THE PROLONGED TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS CUTS OFF THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND INTO A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS PUTS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
LOCALIZED FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN DEEP VALLEYS AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT LOZ/SME BUT
SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW MINUTES AT A TIME AND DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE
THE TAF TO INDICATE THE FOG. IT WILL BE THICKEST AND MOST PREVALENT
IN THE BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEY BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT ANY AIRPORTS
AS THEY ARE LOCATED ON RIDGETOPS IN THIS AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. THE LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF MVFR FOG THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1239 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS BANGOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. SEEING SOME SHOWERS RUNNING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS
TO ADD PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE, AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND STRATUS.
ATTM, NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED W/THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SB CAPES OF 700+ JOULES
W/MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MBS ACROSS THE FAR W AND N BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND EVENING APCHS, THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO
850MBS AND BELOW AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE LLVLS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO 6.0 C/KM AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL FORCING INITIALLY BUT THAT IS GONE
BY 06Z AS THE FRONT APCHS. ATTM, DECIDED ON ISOLD TSTMS AND KEPT
POPS NO MORE THAN 40% ACROSS THE FAR N AND W FOR SHOWERS.
SKY COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS S FLOW INITIALLY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE MLT AND HUL REGIONS. FURTHER N AND W, WIND
VEERING MORE SW OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS.
FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AND DECIDED
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THERE FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND
W, KEPT FOG OUT DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP FOR ONE AND DIRECTION
MORE WSW BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SMALL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE DIVIDING WARM
AIR TO THE NORTH FROM HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME MOISTURE WILL CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST AREAS JUST ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE DURING THE MIDDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL LOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST. A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING
TROF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY. THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM GOING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHC FOR IFR WILL BE FROM HUL ON
SOUTH TO BGR AND BHB. CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY
W/BGR AND BHB TAKING A WHILE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IN COASTAL FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY LINGER FOR
A WHILE EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: KEPT THE MENTION OF THE SWELL IN THE FCST TONIGHT AS A
8-9 SECOND PERIOD IS OCCURRING ATTM. THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SWAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEAS REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT
W/THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. DECISION WAS TO BRING SEAS UP A FOOT W/A
RANGE OF 3-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATER
WEDNESDAY AS REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS GO OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM A SMALL SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN SEAS NEAR 5 FT EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
611 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
WE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE MORNING FORECAST BASED ON THE TRENDS
IN RECENT RADAR DATA IN ORDER TO BUMP POPS UP TO AROUND 50 PERCENT
FOR PLACES LIKE BILLINGS AND MILES CITY. INSTEAD OF JUST USING THE
PROBABILITY IN THE UPDATED FORECAST...WE ADDED COVERAGE /SCATTERED
SHOWER/ WORDING TO HELP CONVEY THE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION. ALL OF
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2012...
AFTER ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM TODAY...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY PERIOD WILL START THU AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AT 09 UTC REVEALS A BIT MORE COMPLEX FLOW
THAN WE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WY. THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE BOTH THAT WAVE
AND ITS MORE NORTHERN COUNTERPART WILL BE HEADING EAST OF MT TODAY
WE WILL MAINLY DEAL WITH LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW IN THEIR WAKE.
TODAY...WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. A BIT BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SUBTLE 1.5 PVU LOWERING THAT THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS TAKE FROM NEAR
GREAT FALLS AT 09 UTC TO MILES CITY BY 18 UTC. SHOWERS AROUND THAT
FEATURE HAVE HELD TOGETHER IN NORTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT DESPITE A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO OUR BELIEF THAT A
SCATTERING OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THAT IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS...AND THE QPF FROM THE
00 UTC GFS AND NAM AS WELL. THE FORECAST DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOO...WITH THE CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES OF THAT FROM
THE 21 UTC SREF NEAR 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MARGINAL BUOYANCY...AND SOME HINTS OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MOST UPDRAFTS FROM GROWING TALL ENOUGH FOR TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT DOWNWARD
MOTION WILL RESULT IN LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT
UNTIL 03 UTC IN ORDER TO GIVE ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION TIME TO END.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC 4 KM WRF-NMM...WHICH DOES NOT TAIL
OFF ALL OF ITS WEAK CONVECTION NEAR MILES CITY AND BAKER UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OUR
FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD BASED ON
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE RIDGE. THE AIR
MASS IS NOT VERY COOL THOUGH...SO WE MAY ADMITTEDLY BE TOO COLD IN
SPOTS. NONETHELESS...NAM-BASED GUIDANCE HANDLED A SIMILAR SCENARIO
LAST FRI NIGHT WELL...SO WE LEANED ON IT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS WELL.
THU...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN RISING.
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S F WILL BE AN EASY TARGET ON THE PLAINS AS
MIXING TO 700 HPA OCCURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...WE FEEL THAT THE SITUATION STILL
WARRANTS HIGHS THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES F OVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GIVEN STRONG INSOLATION AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECASTS. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FAR
EAST BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS PUMPS UP RIGHT THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR SE ZONES BY LATE FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RELATIVELY STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE CAP BREAKS IN OUR FAR EAST I
WOULD EXPECT A SUPERCELL OR TWO DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND THERE IS A WEAK WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA
LATE IN THE DAY DURING MAX HEATING. SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW POPS AS FAR
WEST AS YELLOWSTONE COUNTY FOR THIS PERIOD.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS BILLINGS AT SOME POINT
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE
POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS MAY AGAIN BE
LIMITED DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
ANY TRIGGER FOR FORCED ASCENT OR ERODING THAT CAP. THEREFORE...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREAS WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS SUGGEST A DRY INTRUSION OF
AIR IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THE
PLAINS. SO LEFT POPS OUT OF THE SW MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT UNFOLD WHERE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MODEST RIDGE CRASHING EVENT MIGHT LEND ITSELF
TO A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PRECEDING A WIND
SHIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KSHR THROUGH 12Z WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAINLY IN CLOUD LIGHTNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM
THE NORTH THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR BRISK NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO
BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 047/084 055/087 059/091 062/094 063/094 066/092
5/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 071 036/082 047/085 052/089 053/091 054/086 057/081
3/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 21/B 12/T 22/T
HDN 075 043/084 052/091 060/094 065/097 063/096 064/096
5/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
MLS 075 047/085 056/087 063/090 064/096 065/095 066/093
5/T 20/U 02/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 074 045/082 055/093 060/090 065/098 066/100 066/094
4/T 20/U 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 045/079 054/085 061/086 061/089 064/093 065/089
3/T 20/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 069 042/080 051/089 061/092 063/095 063/093 062/091
3/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
341 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
AFTER ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM TODAY...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY PERIOD WILL START THU AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AT 09 UTC REVEALS A BIT MORE COMPLEX FLOW
THAN WE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WY. THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE BOTH THAT WAVE
AND ITS MORE NORTHERN COUNTERPART WILL BE HEADING EAST OF MT TODAY
WE WILL MAINLY DEAL WITH LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW IN THEIR WAKE.
TODAY...WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. A BIT BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SUBTLE 1.5 PVU LOWERING THAT THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS TAKE FROM NEAR
GREAT FALLS AT 09 UTC TO MILES CITY BY 18 UTC. SHOWERS AROUND THAT
FEATURE HAVE HELD TOGETHER IN NORTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT DESPITE A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO OUR BELIEF THAT A
SCATTERING OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THAT IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS...AND THE QPF FROM THE
00 UTC GFS AND NAM AS WELL. THE FORECAST DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOO...WITH THE CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES OF THAT FROM
THE 21 UTC SREF NEAR 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MARGINAL BUOYANCY...AND SOME HINTS OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MOST UPDRAFTS FROM GROWING TALL ENOUGH FOR TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT DOWNWARD
MOTION WILL RESULT IN LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT
UNTIL 03 UTC IN ORDER TO GIVE ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION TIME TO END.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC 4 KM WRF-NMM...WHICH DOES NOT TAIL
OFF ALL OF ITS WEAK CONVECTION NEAR MILES CITY AND BAKER UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OUR
FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD BASED ON
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE RIDGE. THE AIR
MASS IS NOT VERY COOL THOUGH...SO WE MAY ADMITTEDLY BE TOO COLD IN
SPOTS. NONETHELESS...NAM-BASED GUIDANCE HANDLED A SIMILAR SCENARIO
LAST FRI NIGHT WELL...SO WE LEANED ON IT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS WELL.
THU...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN RISING.
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S F WILL BE AN EASY TARGET ON THE PLAINS AS
MIXING TO 700 HPA OCCURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...WE FEEL THAT THE SITUATION STILL
WARRANTS HIGHS THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES F OVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GIVEN STRONG INSOLATION AND DRY GROUND CONDITIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECASTS. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FAR
EAST BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS PUMPS UP RIGHT THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR SE ZONES BY LATE FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RELATIVELY STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE CAP BREAKS IN OUR FAR EAST I
WOULD EXPECT A SUPERCELL OR TWO DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND THERE IS A WEAK WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA
LATE IN THE DAY DURING MAX HEATING. SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW POPS AS FAR
WEST AS YELLOWSTONE COUNTY FOR THIS PERIOD.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS BILLINGS AT SOME POINT
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE
POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS MAY AGAIN BE
LIMITED DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
ANY TRIGGER FOR FORCED ASCENT OR ERODING THAT CAP. THEREFORE...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREAS WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS SUGGEST A DRY INTRUSION OF
AIR IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THE
PLAINS. SO LEFT POPS OUT OF THE SW MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT UNFOLD WHERE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MODEST RIDGE CRASHING EVENT MIGHT LEND ITSELF
TO A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PRECEDING A WIND
SHIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KSHR THROUGH 12Z WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAINLY IN CLOUD LIGHTNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM
THE NORTH THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR BRISK NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO
BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 047/084 055/087 059/091 062/094 063/094 066/092
3/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 11/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 071 036/082 047/085 052/089 053/091 054/086 057/081
3/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 21/B 12/T 22/T
HDN 075 043/084 052/091 060/094 065/097 063/096 064/096
4/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
MLS 075 047/085 056/087 063/090 064/096 065/095 066/093
4/T 20/U 02/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 074 045/082 055/093 060/090 065/098 066/100 066/094
3/T 20/U 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 045/079 054/085 061/086 061/089 064/093 065/089
3/T 20/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 069 042/080 051/089 061/092 063/095 063/093 062/091
3/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
409 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM DAY ON THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DOWNPOURS. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WHILE A SMALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER
IN THE WEEKEND...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AT 19Z...MSAS CONTINUED TO DEPICT A RATHER LARGE/BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WV MOUNTAINS /1021MB/ WITH WEAK SWLY
FLOW OVER THE WFO ILN FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 17C AS
SAMPLED BY 20.12Z KILN RAOB HAD LIKELY WARMED TO AROUND 19C VIA
WEAK WARM ADVECTION VIA RUC ANALYSIS - AND SUPPORTED HIGHS TODAY
IN THE LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AND ACTUALLY
CAUSING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO COME IN SAME OR LESS THAN AIR
TEMPERATURE...INDICATIVE THAT SURFACE MOISTURE IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...DEEPER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED RIGHT WHERE
HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING 4KM GUIDANCE SAID IT WOULD /NEAR PMH/
BUT MIXING DEWPOINTS LIKELY INHIBITING FURTHER GROWTH THUS FAR.
WILL HOLD THE LOW RAIN CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT UNLESS CUMULUS SHOWS MORE DEPTH IN NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...WILL LIKELY PULL THIS RAIN CHANCE SOONER THAN LATER.
OVERNIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE POOL /SHOWN NICELY ON SATELLITE
BLENDED PWAT AND RUC ANALYSIS/ OFF TO OUR SOUTH/EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS TO THE EASTERN AREAS BUT BY
AND LARGE SKIES SHOULD AGAIN GO CLEAR QUICKLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE
MORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1KM TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST /WARM
ADVECTION/ SO WILL RUN MIN TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN LAST. THOUGHT ABOUT A LOW RAIN CHANCE FOR CNTL OH LATER ON
FOR AN ELEVATED STORM WITHIN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE SO WILL HOLD DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FEATURES OF IMPORTANCE IN THIS PERIOD ARE THE STRONG DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS PUSHING EAST. BY 12Z THURSDAY...CENTER OF 591DM 500MB
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON DC AREA WITH RATHER SHARP
UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER. SHORTWAVE
DYNAMICS/JET ENERGY HOWEVER WILL BE PULLING NORTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO...THUS A GLANCING BLOW OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PV
FROM THIS WAVE BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY EVENING.
HEIGHT FALL CENTER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH
PROGRESSION OF THE FALLS TO ALLOW THE RATHER DEFINED /INITIALLY/
COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS QUICKLY FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE INDIANA/OHIO BY LATER THURS AFTN AND EVE. THIS WILL PUSH DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 22.00Z.
20.12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CORRIDOR OF
RATHER DEEP/DRY AIR WILL DEVELOP AMIDST SUBSIDENCE/COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOTH DATA SETS SUGGEST NARROW 850MB
TEMP AXIS UP TO 20/21C DEVELOPING COINCIDENT TO THE DRYING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH GUIDANCE /STATISTICAL MOS AND RAW DATA/
SHOWING SURFACE AND ML DEWPOINTS DROPPING IN THIS ZONE...THINK A
WINDOW OF HIGHER HEAT DEVELOPS TOMORROW BETWEEN THE LOBE OF HIGH
PWAT OFF TO OUR EAST...AND INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS HAVE
INCREASED MAX T IN THE FORECAST...NOW RUNNING MID 90S MUCH OF
SRN/ERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING CMH/CVG. WOULD CONSIDER HEAT
HEADLINES...BUT BLENDED DEWPT FORECAST YIELDS 59-63 DEWPOINTS
WHICH ACTUALLY REDUCED APPARENT TEMP NUMBERS IN THE GRIDS...SO NO
HEAT HEADLINES.
20.12Z DATA SETS A LITTLE MORE INTACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FGEN
CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND SUBSEQUENT
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DESPITE
THE FACT FRONT WILL BE SLOWING A LITTLE...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL OVERALL BE MEAGER...FEEL A SCT-BKN BAND OF MULTICELL
STORMS /WEEK DEEP SHEAR THUS LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION/ WILL
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING. THINK WESTERN AREAS
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE STORMS THUS MINOR UPGRADE IN RAIN
CHANCES PER 20.15Z SREF/NMM/ARW-WRF...BUT FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED /PER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/ AND
GUST OUT...THUS HAVE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE THURS
NIGHT AS DYNAMICS/STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
AND DIURNAL/INSTABILITY COMPONENT WANES. FGEN CIRCULATION WEAKENS
AS WELL WITH TIME.
DON/T FEEL SEVERE THREAT ALL THAT HIGH...MLCAPES PER 4KM NAM-WRF
NEST BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PLUMES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG...BUT THINKING HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS AND LARGE DCAPE/ MAY PROMOTE A FEW WIND GUST REPORTS AS THE
BIGGEST STORMS COLLAPSE EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLE OF THE EVENT. MAY
HAVE A WARNING OR TWO...BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SVR NOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT REPORTS. ALSO DON/T FEEL RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGH AND/OR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO DETER DRYING THAT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WORSEN...ESPECIALLY NRN FORECAST AREA.
FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INSTBY MAY
BUILD JUST ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH/EAST ON FRIDAY MORNING TO
WARRANT A SMALL RAIN CHANCE. TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKIER BUT FEEL
WE/LL CARVE A GOOD 10F OFF THURSDAYS HIGHS IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEADLINE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN MAKER IN THE OFFING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW
MOVES ONTO THE PACNW COAST...SURGING THE MIDCONTINENT RIDGE INTO
CANADA AND A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE PLAINS DESPITE
SOME MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOWS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ALL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SORT OF
MCS...SO HAVE REMOVED PCPN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE THIS THEME...ALTHOUGH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIP TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. INTRODUCED 20 POPS INTO THE NORTH/EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...SO CONTINUED TO SINK THE 20
POPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA (WHICH ARE BELOW POP THRESHOLD FOR THE
WORDED FORECAST). COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY SEEP SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING THE BLOCKY
PATTERN...AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ALSO FACTORING INTO THE DILEMMA IS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
BEEN ON THE DEEP AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED ITS COOL (60S) TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NAEFS
1000-500 MB THICKNESS PLUMES SHOWED AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY HAVING THE
LOWEST VALUES OF THE EXTENDED...YET WITH THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. SO TOOK A BLEND OF HPC/00Z ECMWF AND SHAVED OFF A FEW
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE COOLER SOLUTIONS (YIELDING 75-80).
REGARDLESS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL FEEL CRISP COMPARED TO RECENT
WEATHER AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SHOW SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW
PULLS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME PCPN TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AT SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK
(PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA)...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW WITH NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL TO FOCUS ON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
AN INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWER OR STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH SOME FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. KLUK WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SHALLOW
RIVER FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS BY EMPLOYING
PREDOMINATE MVFR VSBYS WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 12Z.
LOOKS LIKE TAF SITES WILL BE PCPN FREE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES START TO
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
139 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR 930 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS TO
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE CU TO DEVELOP. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY THINK
BETTER 850 MB MOISTURE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED CONVERGENCE
FROM LAKE BREEZE SHOULD AID CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE SNOWBELT. HRRR LATEST RUN NOW DEVELOPS A FEW LIGHT CELLS IN THE
AREA OF WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WHILE THE RUN FROM
THE PREVIOUS HOUR HAD SOME ISOLATED LIGHT CELLS SPREAD IN THE SOUTH
AND SE PART OF THE AREA. THINK CAP AT MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING SO WILL KEEP POP BELOW 10%.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SEEM IN LINE SO HEAT INDEX SHOULD STAY JUST
UNDER THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD FRONT INTO NW OH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS AREA IN A
SEE TEXT. CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT SOME DIFFERENCES DO CROP
UP LATE IN THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED A MENTION OF PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SO HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS TRACK AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE
EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN
THE GFS. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
FACT THAT PRECIP IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL MENTION TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FEW/SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE CLEAR. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SOUTH BREEZE TONIGHT TO KEEP ANY FOG OR HAZE
FROM FORMING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. S
TO SW FLOW GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TILL A
COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
IS LIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. MAY COME CLOSE TO NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
NW TO N FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO LATE
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR
LATE THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
920 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR 930 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS TO
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE CU TO DEVELOP. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY THINK
BETTER 850 MB MOISTURE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED CONVERGENCE
FROM LAKE BREEZE SHOULD AID CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE SNOWBELT. HRRR LATEST RUN NOW DEVELOPS A FEW LIGHT CELLS IN THE
AREA OF WHERE THE LAKEBREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WHILE THE RUN FROM
THE PREVIOUS HOUR HAD SOME ISOLATED LIGHT CELLS SPREAD IN THE SOUTH
AND SE PART OF THE AREA. THINK CAP AT MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING SO WILL KEEP POP BELOW 10%.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SEEM IN LINE SO HEAT INDEX SHOULD STAY JUST
UNDER THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD FRONT INTO NW OH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS AREA IN A
SEE TEXT. CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT SOME DIFFERENCES DO CROP
UP LATE IN THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED A MENTION OF PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SO HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS TRACK AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE
EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN
THE GFS. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
FACT THAT PRECIP IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL MENTION TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING VFR WEATHER THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU LIKELY BY MIDDAY AS A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. S
TO SW FLOW GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TILL A
COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
IS LIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. MAY COME CLOSE TO NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
NW TO N FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO LATE
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR
LATE THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
257 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION AROUND 6 OR 7 PM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WHERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
+ 16-17 AT DDC/AMA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS. A
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR WEAKENS CONVECTION OUT WEST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS LIKE
A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION.
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE OVER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
MODELS STILL BUILD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS FORTUNATE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 30-60 DAYS. THE OFFSHOOT WILL
BE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 87 68 89 / 30 40 20 0
HOBART OK 69 89 68 92 / 30 50 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 94 71 95 / 10 30 20 10
GAGE OK 64 86 60 91 / 60 30 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 85 63 88 / 60 40 10 0
DURANT OK 71 92 71 92 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
819 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...USHERING IN SOME UNUSUALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE
JUNE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WARMEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE IS ON THE VERGE OF BEING USHERED
OUT OF THE REGION COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT AND EVENTUALLY A CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS OVERALL.
FOR THIS EVENING...A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS MY SWRN MD-BORDER COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DIFFERING IDEAS FOR THE FUTURE
OF THIS CONVECTION WITH THE ARW BASICALLY KILLING IT AFTER SUNDOWN
WHILE THE HRRR CONTINUES ITS AGGRESSIVE TRENDS BY FIRING OFF MORE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS ABOUT THE
SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HYPER-REACTING TO OUR
HIGH CAPE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENTS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TONIGHT IS ANY DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR
LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WANES.
ISOLATED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HAZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA ALONG AN APPROACHING CFRONT ENTER OUR FAR
NWRN ZONES TWD 12Z FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS THERE TO NEAR 40
PERCENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE AOB 10 PERCENT
POPS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR
NW...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS FRIDAY
AND COMBINE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE SE
THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO BRING A QUITE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
FRIDAY.
SVR WX APPEARS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...WHERE FROPA WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRI. SREF DATA
INDICATES THE AREA FROM MDT SEWRD COULD SEE CAPES NEAR
2000J/KG...SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS
MULTI-CELL STORMS AS THE PRIMARY TYPE...ALONG WITH A FEW MINI BOWS
ECHOES WITH ENHANCED/FOCUSED DOWNDRAFTS. SPC HAS THE SE THIRD OF OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS AS IT MOVES
STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS IN
ADVANCE OF FROPA SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED ONE HALF
INCH PLUS RAIN AMTS...WITH MOST PLACES SEEING JUST AROUND 0.25 OF AN
INCH.
AM SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO NR 90F FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF CDFRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD READINGS TO THE U70S ACROSS THE
W MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND
SEASONABLE WX OVER CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS
SAT NIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVR THE STATE.
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...MCLEAR SKY AND A CALM WIND COULD RESULT
IN SOME READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SAT NIGHT.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS NEXT WEEK. A POTENT COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY LIKELY SHRA/TSRA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN BTWN SUN NITE/MONDAY AND KEEP POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY BOTH PERIODS.
A POCKET OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT NEARLY -2 ST DEVIATIONS AT
850 AND 700 MB...APPEARS ON SCHEDULE TO MIGRATE SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW-
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...ESP ACROSS
THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO CLOSED LOW CENTER.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF COOL AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY WX /MAINLY DURING
THE LATER AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS/...MODERATING CONDS LIKELY FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS PENNSYLVANIA
MIDDAY TOMORROW.
THE RIDGE HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SUFFICIENT CAP THAT WILL
STIFLE ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
AONG THE MASON DIXON WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A
WEAKER CAP MAY ALLWO FOR ISOATED TSRA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG/MIST IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDMORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BY
15Z ALONG THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
FORMING. THE INCOMING COLD FRONT CURRENTY STRETCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE FORM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA FROM 15Z THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 22Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES IN THIS
TIMEFRAME WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN AND AROUND TSRA.
AFTER 22Z EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD TRICKLE DOWN BY 03Z. ANY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR LOW STRATOCU AND FOG/MIST LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCT TSTM IMPACTS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TSTMS WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS.
MON AND TUE...MVFR CIGS POSS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES:
MDT 6/21 98 1923...OBSERVED HIGH 94
IPT 6/21 97 1923/1933...OBSERVED HIGH 94
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
818 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...USHERING IN SOME UNUSUALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE
JUNE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WARMEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE IS ON THE VERGE OF BEING USHERED
OUT OF THE REGION COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT AND EVENTUALLY A CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS OVERALL.
FOR THIS EVENING...A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS MY SWRN MD-BORDER COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DIFFERING IDEAS FOR THE FUTURE
OF THIS CONVECTION WITH THE ARW BASICALLY KILLING IT AFTER SUNDOWN
WHILE THE HRRR CONTINUES ITS AGGRESSIVE TRENDS BY FIRING OFF MORE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS ABOUT THE
SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HYPER-REACTING TO OUR
HIGH CAPE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENTS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TONIGHT IS ANY DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR
LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WANES.
ISOLATED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HAZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA ALONG AN APPROACHING CFRONT ENTER OUR FAR
NWRN ZONES TWD 12Z FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS THERE TO NEAR 40
PERCENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE AOB 10 PERCENT
POPS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR
NW...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS FRIDAY
AND COMBINE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE SE
THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO BRING A QUITE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
FRIDAY.
SVR WX APPEARS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...WHERE FROPA WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRI. SREF DATA
INDICATES THE AREA FROM MDT SEWRD COULD SEE CAPES NEAR
2000J/KG...SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS
MULTI-CELL STORMS AS THE PRIMARY TYPE...ALONG WITH A FEW MINI BOWS
ECHOES WITH ENHANCED/FOCUSED DOWNDRAFTS. SPC HAS THE SE THIRD OF OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS AS IT MOVES
STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS IN
ADVANCE OF FROPA SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED ONE HALF
INCH PLUS RAIN AMTS...WITH MOST PLACES SEEING JUST AROUND 0.25 OF AN
INCH.
AM SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO NR 90F FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF CDFRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD READINGS TO THE U70S ACROSS THE
W MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND
SEASONABLE WX OVER CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS
SAT NIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVR THE STATE.
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...MCLEAR SKY AND A CALM WIND COULD RESULT
IN SOME READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SAT NIGHT.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS NEXT WEEK. A POTENT COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY LIKELY SHRA/TSRA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN BTWN SUN NITE/MONDAY AND KEEP POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY BOTH PERIODS.
A POCKET OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT NEARLY -2 ST DEVIATIONS AT
850 AND 700 MB...APPEARS ON SCHEDULE TO MIGRATE SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW-
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...ESP ACROSS
THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO CLOSED LOW CENTER.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF COOL AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY WX /MAINLY DURING
THE LATER AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS/...MODERATING CONDS LIKELY FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TODAY AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED TO 7-10SM IN MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS
MORNING...AND INCREASING DEPTH OF VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LEND A BIT MORE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTM /20 PERCENT OR LESS/ POPPING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON /AND PERHAPS NEAR THE SE EDGE OF
THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE...TO THE WEST OF KBFD AFTER 18Z/...BUT TOO LOW
TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP A
BIT TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE DAY...AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT
AS VSBY RESTRICTIONS RETURN TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS BACK MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCT TSTM IMPACTS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TSTMS WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS.
MON AND TUE...MVFR CIGS POSS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES:
MDT 6/21 98 1923...OBSERVED HIGH 94
IPT 6/21 97 1923/1933...OBSERVED HIGH 94
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-046-
049>053-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
CLIMATE...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...FORECAST MONITOR IS ALL GREEN WITH ALL PARAMATERS
WITHIN TOLERANCE...SO NO GRID CHANGES NEEDED. NO CONVECTION HAS
FIRED YET IN OUR CWA...BUT STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM
MID LEVELS WHICH RESULTS IN MEAGER LAPSE RATES. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PIEDMONT AREAS SHOULD REMAINED CAPPED...BUT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK THE CAP WITH HEATING WITH CAPES IN THE
500-1000J RANGE. GFS AND NAM LOOK OVERDONE ON THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOMODELS LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST
WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WILL DISREGARD THE
ISOLD CONVECTION OF HRRR OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TYPE POPS CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE JUST TO
OUR NORTH AND THEN BEGIN TO DAMPEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD BUT SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST CAUSING
OUR LOW LVL WINDS TO BECOME MORE SELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE SENSIBLE FCST WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE NC MTS FOR SCT TO ISO TSRA
AND A SOLID CHANCE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TN BORDER DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE REST OF THE CWFA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN AFFECT FROM 6AM
UNTIL 9PM TODAY FOR ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF GROUND LVL OZONE OVER THE
CLT AND HKY REGIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...AS H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE THU A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE S APPALACHIANS FROM THE NW. BEST FORCING
STAYS WELL N OF THE AREA AND MID LVL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CWA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...ESP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO
LIMITED SCT CONVECTION TO THE N MTNS WITH ISOLD REST OF MTN RIDGES
AND PEAKS LATE THU AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC
COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST
RESPONSE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF MORE RESERVED. BASED ON RECENT GFS
PESSIMISM USED A MODEL BLEND...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF.
FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS FRI AFTN...TAPERING TO LOW CHC ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEG ABOVE AVG
THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP THE UPPER TROF OVER
THE E US THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
DISTURBANCE(S)IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO STAY S AND E OF THE CWA...
WHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAK UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION SAT-SUN
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. BASED ON THIS KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE
MTNS SAT AND ACROSS THE CWA SUN AS UPPER FORCING IMPROVES SLIGHTLY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVG SE OF THE CWA MON-TUE
WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...
WHILE THE W CAROLINAS AND NE GA STAY RELATIVELY DRY. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE AVG THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE
11Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.
ELSEWHERE...AT KAVL...A PERIOD OF LIFR STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO
REPEAT ITSELF IN THE 10Z-13Z TIMEFRAME...OTHERWISE VFR WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED -TSRA SCATTERED ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS TIL ABOUT 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF
MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS IN THE 11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
THRU THURSDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS OVER THE
MTS...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TAF
SITES FRIDAY THROUGH AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM MID LEVELS WHICH RESULTS IN MEAGER LAPSE RATES.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PIEDMONT AREAS SHOULD REMAINED
CAPPED...BUT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK THE CAP WITH HEATING
WITH CAPES IN THE 500-1000J RANGE. GFS AND NAM LOOK OVERDONE ON THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOMODELS LOOK MORE REASONABLE
WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WILL
DISREGARD THE ISOLD CONVECTION OF HRRR OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE UPSHOT
IS THAT WE WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TYPE POPS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE JUST TO
OUR NORTH AND THEN BEGIN TO DAMPEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD BUT SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST CAUSING
OUR LOW LVL WINDS TO BECOME MORE SELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE SENSIBLE FCST WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE NC MTS FOR SCT TO ISO TSRA
AND A SOLID CHANCE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TN BORDER DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE REST OF THE CWFA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN AFFECT FROM 6AM
UNTIL 9PM TODAY FOR ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF GROUND LVL OZONE OVER THE
CLT AND HKY REGIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...AS H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE THU A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE S APPALACHIANS FROM THE NW. BEST FORCING
STAYS WELL N OF THE AREA AND MID LVL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CWA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...ESP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO
LIMITED SCT CONVECTION TO THE N MTNS WITH ISOLD REST OF MTN RIDGES
AND PEAKS LATE THU AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC
COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST
RESPONSE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF MORE RESERVED. BASED ON RECENT GFS
PESSIMISM USED A MODEL BLEND...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF.
FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS FRI AFTN...TAPERING TO LOW CHC ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEG ABOVE AVG
THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP THE UPPER TROF OVER
THE E US THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
DISTURBANCE(S)IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO STAY S AND E OF THE CWA...
WHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAK UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION SAT-SUN
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. BASED ON THIS KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE
MTNS SAT AND ACROSS THE CWA SUN AS UPPER FORCING IMPROVES SLIGHTLY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVG SE OF THE CWA MON-TUE
WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...
WHILE THE W CAROLINAS AND NE GA STAY RELATIVELY DRY. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE AVG THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LIFR STRATUS FOG AT KAVL UNTIL ABOUT 14Z.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT
WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE ON MORE OF A SELY COMPONENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AS OPPOSED TO SWLY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. I DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR TS OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A TS OR 2 DEVELOPING OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AFTER 17Z OR SO.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
THRU THURSDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS OVER THE
MTS...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DRYING POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER THE MRX CWA. COLD FRONT WELL DEPICTED BY PAH AND LMK RADAR
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BORDER. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND TOWARDS SUNRISE PER GFS/NAM TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS...AND LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH NO PRECIP
DEPICTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL LEAVE IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS UNFORTUNATELY WILL REMAIN DRY. ALSO
ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY PER 18Z/00Z MOS GUIDANCE AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MIDDLE TN...LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE AR/TN BORDER. THE FRONT IS FAIRLY MOISTURE-
STARVED...SO ANY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PLATEAU AFFECTING ONLY CSV OR WELL
WEST OF MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER
04Z...WHERE VSBYS AT CSV SHOULD DROP FROM HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS THERE TOWARDS DAWN.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT IS POST-
FRONTAL...AND WITH THE FRONT NEARING CKV JUST AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...THINK ANY PRECIP ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT AFFECTING BNA AND CSV ONLY. MAY INCLUDE A VCSH
MENTION AT THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL TAILOR BACK THE TS/CB MENTION IN
AT CKV AROUND 12Z JUST TO A VCSH IN CASE FRONTAL PRECIP LASTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT EDGING CLOSER TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 20Z MAP SHOWING IT POSITIONED ALMOST TO THE OHIO
RIVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID
90`S MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS SUGGEST LITTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE PLATEAU, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION OCCURRING FARTHER UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS REALLY SLASHED OUR POP`S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH AM LEAVING IN MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW, AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY, IF A LITTLE BIT
DRY. EXPECT LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90`S MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU, WITH EVEN SOME MID 90`S, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOOKING A
BIT FARTHER OUT, GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH BRING THE UPPER TROUGH
THOUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN STALL THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
U.S., WITH DEEP AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL PLACE MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A STEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
AND WITH A NEARLY-DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WE CAN
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND SE LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A FLATTENED UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED BY
LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE CU
LOOKS RATHER AGITATED OVER MINNESOTA WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE
FORMING...SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE JUST
WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE FROM LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SPREAD MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH SATURATION OR INSTABILITY FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO A DRY
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 73-74F ELSEWHERE WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED
ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 15-16Z OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ML CAPES OF 600 J/KG AND INVERTED V SOUNDING
IN THE BL SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CAPES ARE RATHER SKINNY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...SO
THINK WILL ONLY MENTION DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE HWO. SOME
STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING EAST AFTER 21Z AS FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO
MICHIGAN. DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVES BY AND A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM CANADA. PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&
.AVIATION... VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WAINING...THOUGH
HAS UPPER SUPPORT FROM JET TO KEEP GOING. WILL ADD VCSH TO AUW AND
CWA...KEEPING RHI DRY TONIGHT AS TREND IS FURTHER SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS SHOWERS RATHER HIGH BASED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TOMORROW MORNING. AGAIN WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SO AGAIN WILL
ONLY GO VICINITY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST TAF SITES.
TE
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
622 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND SE LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A FLATTENED UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED BY
LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE CU
LOOKS RATHER AGITATED OVER MINNESOTA WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE
FORMING...SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE JUST
WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE FROM LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SPREAD MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH SATURATION OR INSTABILITY FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO A DRY
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 73-74F ELSEWHERE WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED
ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 15-16Z OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ML CAPES OF 600 J/KG AND INVERTED V SOUNDING
IN THE BL SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CAPES ARE RATHER SKINNY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...SO
THINK WILL ONLY MENTION DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE HWO. SOME
STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING EAST AFTER 21Z AS FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO
MICHIGAN. DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVES BY AND A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM CANADA. PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&
.AVIATION... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROF OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES HAS CAUSED SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
NORTHERN MN. THESE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
WI...THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. WILL KEEP RHI DRY TONIGHT...AND MONITOR. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
TE
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE STORMS THIS EVENING...POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION HAS BUBBLED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST RUNNING COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHWEST IA. GOOD
CONVERGENCE NEAR...BUT MOSTLY POST THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A
STRONG THERMAL BAND IN THE LOW LAYERS. ABOUT 1000 OR SO J/KG OF
MLCAPE AROUND THE FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE RISK IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY LATE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS
SUPPORT WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE ON
THAT IN THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE...IN
THE REGION OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. CAPE MUCH LESS IN THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE A BIT BETTER. COULD BE SOME SEVERE
RISK IN THIS AREA...BUT THINK THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE AROUND THE
FRONT.
FOR THU/FRI...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT...WITH
THE 20.12Z NAM AND GFS HINTING AT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY SEEMS A
BIT STRONGER. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTH/EAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT
A LOT...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED VIA RUC SOUNDINGS
AND RH PLOTS THAT SOME SHRA/TS COULD BE GENERATED IN THIS AREA. WILL
ADD SMALL CHANCES FOR THU AND CONTINUE THE FRI CHANCES.
THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SD/NEB FRI NIGHT/SAT. THIS STORM COMPLEX AND
RESULTING MCV WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS IA/MN/WI ON SAT...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIDE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE EC LOOKS MORE LIKE A MIX
OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS IN
THIS TIME FRAME.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME LESS HUMID
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH HOW LONG TO LINGER THE SAT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE EC WOULD BRING IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS WOULD HANG IT AROUND ON SUNDAY. GEM IS A BIT
QUICKER...ALA THE EC. WILL STEER TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN
THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME LEAN ON THE QUICKER EC/GEM.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR MON-WED WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EASES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. MOSTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
BOTH LSE AND RST TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
LATEST 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST REGION TO REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THE CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER
20.15Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z. IF THE CAP HOLDS....AS SOME HI RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE RST AND
LSE TAF SITES UNTIL 23Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE KEPT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z AT
RST AND 22Z AT LSE. LATEST METARS INDICATE CEILINGS HEIGHTS IN THE
MVFR RANGE 2000-3000 FEET ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT. THE 20.12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A SHORT DURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR
CEILINGS AT RST AFTER 22Z AND AT LSE AFTER 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT SUGGEST
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT TONIGHT. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS
SHOULD MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP NORTHEAST...THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED 2
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH OVERALL 1/2 TO 1 INCH TOTALS
MORE LIKELY.
SOME BASINS ARE STILL WET AND/OR HAVE RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...
INCLUDING THE ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...AND
MISSISSIPPI. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS INDICATE THE MISSISSIPPI WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN AT WABASHA ON WED...WHICH MEANS OTHER SITES ALONG THE BIG
MUDDY WILL REACH HEIGHTS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN JUST LAST
WEEK.
CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/ TO HEIGHTEN THE PUBLIC
AWARENESS OF THE SITUATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....DTJ
HYDROLOGY....MW/RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
226 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIGHTING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH FURTHER
HEATING...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AND FGEN ARE ALSO SPREADING OVER THE FRONT TO
AID IN THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA BENEATH AN
UPPER TROUGH. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT...SEVERE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG STORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ML CAPES WILL BE
IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WITH A DECENT WIND FIELD AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS BETWEEN
30-35KTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE STORMS ARRIVE. INSTABILITY DOES
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST...PERHAPS TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY ENTER
THE FOX VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PWATS OF 1.80 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL. SHOULD
SEE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER 09Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO MOVE IN IN
ITS WAKE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEFINITELY GOOD ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD
ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY. NOT SURE ABOUT A TRIGGER
FOR SHOWER POSSIBILITIES...BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
INTERACT WITH 300-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE OVER N-C WISCONSIN. WILL
LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR NOW BUT MENTION POSSIBILITY TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A NICE
SEASONABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND A REFRESHING HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MORE JET ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
BIG SURFACE HIGH THEN SHOULD DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A LATE SEASON FROST IN
THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION YET IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK YET DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO MVFR IF NOT IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. LOOKING AT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT
RHI FOR A FEW HOURS.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1238 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012...
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
ARE THIS MORNING. BUT DO LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND OTHER GUIDANCE
POINT TOWARDS CONVECTION MOVING INTO N-C WISCONSIN AFTER 21Z AND
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z. PROGGED NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BUT DO NOT THINK CAN RULE OUT LARGE HAIL
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD UNTIL INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
DIMINISHES IN THE EVENING. NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SAFER FROM SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING.
MPC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE
PCPN TIMING...AND THE THREAT OF SVR TSTMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW IN SW MN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD
INTO FAR NW WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS ONGOING NW OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
WITH TRAINING LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING FROM
EASTERN SD INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
COVERED GRB CWA...BUT DEVELOPING CONVECTION WAS EDGING TOWARD OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION MAY BRUSH PARTS OF NC WI THIS MORNING...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO GRB CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER PARTS OF NC/C WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL
CAA ERODES THE CAP AND SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WINDS AND WINDEX VALUES AROUND 55 KTS SUGGEST
THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE A GOOD BET IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPLICITLY MENTION SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS/FCST...BUT WILL CERTAINLY HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE THREAT OF HVY
RAINFALL...AS PW`S INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS
RISE TO AROUND 16 C IN THE VCNTY OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDAY AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVG IN THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER LEVEL JET ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF
A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...SO WILL MENTION IN THE FCST. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
THEM ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. A VERY WARM START TO THE
DAY COMBINED WITH MIXING THROUGH 825-800 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY. THE DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RGN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS
DRY FCST...AND MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS HAD A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EAST OF WISCONSIN AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 500MB LOW WAS THEN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE STATE AS A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 00Z
GFS/00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF ALL HAD SOME QPF DURING ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE
PERIODS AND CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO MVFR IF NOT IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. LOOKING AT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT
RHI FOR A FEW HOURS.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1043 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
ARE THIS MORNING. BUT DO LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND OTHER GUIDANCE
POINT TOWARDS CONVECTION MOVING INTO N-C WISCONSIN AFTER 21Z AND
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z. PROGGED NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BUT DO NOT THINK CAN RULE OUT LARGE HAIL
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD UNTIL INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
DIMINISHES IN THE EVENING. NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SAFER FROM SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING.
MPC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE
PCPN TIMING...AND THE THREAT OF SVR TSTMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW IN SW MN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD
INTO FAR NW WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS ONGOING NW OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
WITH TRAINING LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING FROM
EASTERN SD INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
COVERED GRB CWA...BUT DEVELOPING CONVECTION WAS EDGING TOWARD OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION MAY BRUSH PARTS OF NC WI THIS MORNING...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO GRB CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER PARTS OF NC/C WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL
CAA ERODES THE CAP AND SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WINDS AND WINDEX VALUES AROUND 55 KTS SUGGEST
THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE A GOOD BET IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPLICITLY MENTION SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS/FCST...BUT WILL CERTAINLY HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE THREAT OF HVY
RAINFALL...AS PW`S INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS
RISE TO AROUND 16 C IN THE VCNTY OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDAY AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVG IN THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER LEVEL JET ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF
A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...SO WILL MENTION IN THE FCST. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
THEM ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. A VERY WARM START TO THE
DAY COMBINED WITH MIXING THROUGH 825-800 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY. THE DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RGN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS
DRY FCST...AND MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS HAD A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EAST OF WISCONSIN AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 500MB LOW WAS THEN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE STATE AS A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 00Z
GFS/00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF ALL HAD SOME QPF DURING ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE
PERIODS AND CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE LLWS FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING...
BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL REDUCE THE THREAT AND PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS
30 KTS FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHRA/TSRA WILL
ARRIVE IN NC/C WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVG...AND SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT. SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES. HAVE PUT A
FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT EACH TAF SITE...WITH AN ESTIMATE
OF THE MOSTLY LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR DEVELOPMENT. LLWS MAY REDEVELOP
THIS EVG...AND LAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SOME LOW
CLOUDS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
355 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY/THIS EVENING...SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES AGAIN FRI
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF KDLH TO JUST WEST
OF KFSD. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT...KEEPING THE FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS IA/WI/SOUTHERN MN SKIES REMAINED CLEAR
UNDER THE CAPPING AND TEMPS WERE ON THE WARM SIDE...IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80. CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE FLOW INTO/OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRODUCING A BROAD LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM NORTHWEST NEB TO WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR. TRAINING ECHOS IN THE LINE PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINS
OF 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5+ INCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL SD TO THE DULUTH
AREA.
20.00Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL...BUT FOR GFS AGAIN
SOME 2-7F TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/ROUND OF MOISTURE/LIFT APPROACH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 20.00Z SHOWED THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE PAST 24-48HRS VERIFIED RATHER WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC.
OVERALL TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT. TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH THU/THU NIGHT/FRI WITH BROADER TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS STILL BRING A SHORTWAVE THRU THE EASTERN
ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS RIDGING AND TOWARD THE REGION FRI NIGHT BUT
TREND IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND PLENTY OF MODEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY 12Z SAT. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED
MODELS REASONABLE WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH THE DEW POINT FIELD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
FRONT...GFS TOO HIGH...GEM/ECMWF A BIT LOW. NAM/GFS TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP OVER MN/SD...ECMWF/GEM/SREF BETTER. NO CLEAR
MODEL FAVORITE...ESPECIALLY NOT THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN TOO WET/
WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP OF LATE. FAVORED A NON-GFS MODEL/ENSEMBLE
BLEND THIS CYCLE. EVEN WITH MODEL ISSUES/DIFFERENCES...SHORT TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT
AND SFC-700MB TROUGH PASSAGE...NOW SLOWLY BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGEST OF THE SFC-700MB THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING...FN CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOW MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES WITH/
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. WITH SOME SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING AND THE SLOWER FRONT ARRIVAL...ML/MU CAPE VALUES LIKELY
TO BUILD TO THE HIGHER END OF THE EXPECTED RANGES TODAY. THIS WITH
AN INCREASE OF 0-6KM SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-500MB
TROUGH. SWODY1 LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREA UNDER
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+KT 300MB JET MAX. AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THRU THIS EVENING. MAIN
CHANGES TO GRIDS TODAY/TONIGHT WERE TO DELAY ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION
THIS MORNING AND EXTEND IT MORE INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
CONTINUED/RAISED THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 70-85
PERCENT RANGE. HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH STORM MOTION LOOKING PARALLEL TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...MUCH
LIKE OVER EASTERN SD/NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...A WARM START AND SLOWER FRONT ARRIVAL...
RAISED TODAYS HIGHS SOME 4-8F ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA THU AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS FALL
INTO THE 50S FOR THU/FRI FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL WARMING
LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME 200-500 J/KG OF SB AND ML CAPE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA BOTH THU/FRI AFTERNOONS. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH THU/FRI...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA EITHER DAY. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCLUDE A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA ON FRI
WHEN A LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA.
EVEN WITH A WEAKER LOOKING SHORTWAVE TO TRACK THRU THE ROCKIES/
WESTERN PLAINS RIDGE AND TOWARD THE AREA FRI NIGHT...ALL STILL
INDICATE A MODEST SURGE OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT. LIFTING A
700MB PARCEL OVER THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT RESULTS IN NEAR NEUTRAL
STABILITY OR VERY WEAK CAPE. CONTINUED A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
OVER MAINLY THE WEST/NORTH ENDS OF THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT
GIVEN THE ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/STABILITY SIGNAL.
FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY WITH THE WARM START AND
MORNING SUNSHINE. TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
355 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
20.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS FOR SAT THRU TUE. THE DECENT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FLOW OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY
WITH DEEPENING TROUGHS NEAR THE COASTS AND BUILDING RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL NOAM. THE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST STAYING UNDER NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE
IN THE SFC-700MB LAYER CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SAT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST THRU THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE OF SB/ML CAPE. 30-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE FOR SAT AND BLEND WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. BY
SUN...CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING IN THE SFC-700MB LAYER BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND/OR CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...TEMPS FOR SAT THRU TUE TRENDING TO BE NEAR TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL. THIS WELL TRENDED IN THE DAY 4-7 GRIDS BY THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS DATA SET.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MN...INTO
NORTHERN WI. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. FRONT THEN BEGINS TO
MOVE WEDNESDAY AND CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. 20.00Z HRRR DOES SHOW SHOWERS APPROACHING THE KRST SITE
AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER...BUT REMAIN VFR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAIN CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 18Z THOUGH AND THEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED 00Z-02Z AT KRST
AND 01-03Z AT KLSE. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DID LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT BOTH SITES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...WED/WED EVENING
355 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
ONE LAST ROUND OF STORMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SUPPLY OF
WARM MOIST AIR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
POOLS JUST OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY. INDIVIDUAL
CELLS WILL HAVE A GOOD NORTHEAST MOVEMENT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ONLY
CRAWLING FORWARD...POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IS REAL. RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME SPOTS...WITH
A BROAD AREA AROUND 1 INCH SEEMINGLY LIKELY.
SOME BASINS ARE STILL WET AND/OR HAVE RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...
INCLUDING THE ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...AND
MISSISSIPPI. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS INDICATE THE MISSISSIPPI WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN AT WABASHA...WHICH MEANS OTHER SITES ALONG THE BIG MUDDY WILL
REACH HEIGHTS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN JUST LAST WEEK.
WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL SEND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/ TO
HEIGHTEN THE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF THE SITUATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
355 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
FRONT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE
PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF
THUNDER MORE TOWARD 12Z WED NORTHWEST SECTIONS RATHER THAN 06Z. BY
MORNING WILL SEE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THUNDER ACTIVITY FROM
CENTRAL MN WORKS EAST IN THE SLOWING FLOW. AS THE H500 TROUGH SWINGS
EAST WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAPID INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED HIGHEST POP AT
THAT TIME WITH HIGH LIKELY CAT EXPECTED. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER BRISK TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 35KTS. CORFIDI VECTORS
SUGGEST OVERALL NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
WITH SOME EARLY DAY CONVECTION DEBRIS LIKELY TO REDUCE DAYTIME
HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT LINEAR WIND FIELDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WED MORNING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY FOR WIND OR HAIL. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED NIGHT. THURSDAY LOOKS
UNEVENTFUL BUT THERE IS A HINT OF A SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
EITHER LATE THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY. CONSENSUS IN MODELS LACKING
SO HAVE KEPT POP AT 14 FOR NOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW AND
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LEE SIDE TROUGH QUICKLY DEEPENS SATURDAY MORNING TO OUR WEST AND
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LIFT AT H700-H850
WILL RESULT IN MCS OR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDER EVENT. POP HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER POP WEST...THOUGH
MODELS AGAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING...PREFER THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EURO MODEL OVER THE GFS SOLUTION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE APPRECIABLY COOLER...AND MAY NOT HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS ENOUGH
IF CONVECTION ENDS UP AS WIDESPREAD AS INDICATED...HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S...SOME 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NOW FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONT
HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY AND THEN SAGS BACK SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH MODIFIED NORTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY PLEASANT HIGHS RETURN TO THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...HIGHS REACHING THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. TAF SITES
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR. FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE WEDNESDAY AND CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 20.00Z HRRR DOES SHOW
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE KRST SITE AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER...BUT REMAIN VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAIN
CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 18Z THOUGH AND THEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED 00Z-02Z AT KRST AND 01-03Z AT KLSE.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DID LOWER INTO
MVR CATEGORY AT BOTH SITES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...WED/WED EVENING
RECAP OF PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HYDRO DISCUSSION FROM MORNING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...WEDNESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTH FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE KEY HERE
WILL BE HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TROUGH IS DEEPENING AND
SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED PER THE MODEL
FORECASTS...AND THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOMEWHAT. STORMS
WILL HAVE A GOOD NORTHEAST FORWARD MOTION...BUT MAY SEE SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH /ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...
TREMPEALEAU...MISSISSIPPI/ SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLS FOR ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM....REV
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT WEATHER TO
THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAINING
OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND AND
STRETCHING TO JUST WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLIP THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
MAY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
POSSIBLY WESTERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN TENDS TO DAMPEN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO PIECES OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BREAK OFF AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY WARM...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY...THINK WE WILL HAVE A QUICK HOT START AND USED THE
IDENTICAL TEMP FROM 12Z THIS MORNING FOR 12Z FRIDAY.
MET MOS THE PRIMARY GUIDE ON TEMPS SINCE THE AIRMASS SHOULD START
VERY WARM AND THE OVERALL ANTICIPATION IS THAT MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
TOO FAST TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THAT SHOULD MEAN WARMING THRU AT
LEAST 17Z...POSSIBLY 18Z. I THINK PHL AND POINTS SOUTH WILL REACH
95 WITH SMALL CHC OF 97 BEFORE CLOUD COVER CAPS THE WARMUP.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER...AT LEAST IN MD/DE/NJ WITH A TENDENCY
FOR SW SFC FLOW TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTN.
THEREFORE BEST CHC FOR HEAT RELATED CRITERIA IS FROM KPNE SOUTHWARD.
PLS SEE SWODY2 AND OFFICE DISCUSSIONS OF SVR RISK. USED BLENDED
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS AND THE SPC WRF.
NOT LIKING NW SFC WIND FOR CONVECTION IN E PA TOMORROW AFTN AND
FEEL BEST CHC FOR STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN S NJ/DE/E MD.
POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH IN E PA AND MY OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THE
STRONG THUNDER AND POPS FCST IS AVERAGE.
03Z/21 SREF PROB FOR SVR IN THE I95 CORRIDOR COMBINES WITH AN
EC/GFS MODELED TT 48-50...LARGE INSTABILITY ...DECENT MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR TO ABOUT 30 KTS TO PROBABLY
PERMIT ISO OR A FEW SVR TSTMS IN THE I95 CORRIDOR FRI AFTN. CONTG
THE THEME OF HEAVY CONVECTION...PWAT OF 1.75 INCH WILL MEAN SOME
SPOTS WILL HAVE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN SLOW ESEWD
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR A BAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POPS IN
THE PREVIOUS FCST STILL LOOK FINE FOR NOW AND HAVE MOSTLY BEEN
UNCHANGED. THE 12Z GFS MODEL LOOKS BETTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PCPN LOOKS BETTER AT THIS POINT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN REMAIN ALONG
THE SHORE AREAS SAT MORNING...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS AT THE MOMENT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SAT AND SUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.
AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL (IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL) AND CHCS FOR SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS EACH DAY. WE HAVE KEPT IN THE
40 POP FOR MONDAY...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS TO CROSS THE
AREA. SMALLER SLGT CHC POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FCST MAINLY FAVORING THE NRN AREAS...CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW. CONFID ON TIMING LOCATION OF SHORT WAVES IS LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A REFRESHING CHANGE FROM THIS
WEEK...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NJ PINELANDS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 1200 UTC. THE
CLOUDINESS COULD MUFFLE ANY MVFR PATCHY FOG (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMIV...WHICH IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT MVFR FOG IS IMMINENT.
THERE ARE ALSO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KRDG AND POSSIBLY
KABE BEFORE 1200 UTC. THERE IS NOT ANY LIGHTNING WITH THE ACTIVITY
NOW...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ABOVEMENTIONED
LOCATIONS EVEN IF THE SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID CLOUDS EARLY...AND CUMULUS THEREAFTER. FOR THE MOST PART...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC AT
THIS POINT...AND THE 0600 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS INDICATE THE BEST
TIMING AT THIS POINT. LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TERMINALS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING...GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - VFR. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING NEAR KACY.
SUNDAY - VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY - VFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
TUE - MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT...WIND BECOMES A GENERAL SW UNDER 15 KTS.
FRIDAY...W WIND LESS THAN 15 KT BECOME SSW IN THE AFTN. POSSIBLE
NW GUSTS OF 35 KTS VCNTY ANY STRONG TSTMS IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND IT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK IN
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES, ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WOULD NEED AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS TO HAVE ANY ISSUES ALTHOUGH WITH THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING VERY DRY THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY INCREASE BY
FRIDAY. SOME OF OUR SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS
COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING DEPENDING ON DURATION OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS. 1 HR GRIDDED FFG SUGGESTS N OF INTERSTATE 78 IN NJ AND
ANY URBAN AREA ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH HRLY GUIDANCE BETWEEN
1 AND 1.6 INCHES.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SUMMER CAN BE
COMFORTING BUT DO NOT SWIM NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS. THE DANGER OF
RIP CURRENTS EXISTS EVEN ON AN OVERALL LOW RISK DAY. TODAY THERE
IS STILL AN ONSHORE 10 SECOND SWELL THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
SOME CONCERN HAS BEEN EXPRESSED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC HURRICANE CHRIS ON OUR WATERS AND WHILE WE CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ATTM WE DONT HAVE MUCH EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD PUSH OF
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/PERIOD. WE WILL MONITOR THIS IN THE FUTURE
FORECASTS.
SO DESPITE THE BENIGN LOW RISK FORECAST...ITS HOT AND MOST SWIMMERS
ARE NOT AWARE OF THE DANGER OF JUMPING INTO THE OCEAN OFF JETTIES
AND PIERS. NOT SAFE! DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN LURK THERE. WE`VE
ALREADY HAD AT LEAST 4 FATAL THIS YEAR IN NJ .. AND TO MY
KNOWLEDGE "MOST" IF NOT ALL FATALITIES WERE AFTER HOURS..
UNGUARDED LOCATIONS AND APPARENTLY NEAR JETTIES.
WE DONT KNOW THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF YESTERDAYS FATALITIES BUT WARM
SST`S...UNGUARDED BEACHES...JETTIES ETC ARE A CONCERN.
RIP CURRENTS ARE A SILENT KILLER...NOT EASILY MONITORED AND THE
SCIENCE IS STILL TO BE FURTHER DEVELOPED.
WE NEED MORE AWARENESS OF THE DANGER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS COMPILED THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOST RECENT
YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR JUNE 22 FOR OUR EIGHT
CLIMATE SITES INCLUSIVE OF THE STARTING YEAR OF THE PERIOD OF
RECORD. LAST COLUMN IS THE TOTAL SO FAR THIS SEASON OF 90 OR
HIGHER OCCURRENCES, INCLUDING TODAY.
JUNE 22 PERIOD OF RECORD 90+
PHL 100 - 1988 1872 4
ACY 100 - 1988 1874 3
ILG 98 - 1988 1894 5
ABE 95 - 1941 1922 4
TTN 99 - 1988 1865 5
RDG 96 - 1921 1869 6
GED 95 - 2010 1948 5
MPO 90 - 1908 1901 0
RECORD HIGHS ON THE 21ST IN ILG (98) AND GED (99).
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ067>071.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-013-016-020>023-027.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002-003.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HAYES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TODAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD LOW/MID LVL CYCLONE CENTERED JUST N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
GOMEX THRU 12Z SAT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
GENERATE A STEADY SERLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE LCL AIRMASS
BY DAYBREAK SAT.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW INTERESTING FEATURES. THE FIRST (AND
MOST OBVIOUS) IS A DISTINCT H85-H50 MOISTURE BOUNDARY HUGGING THE E
FL COAST...RESULTING IN A MUCH LOWER CLOUD COVER N OF THE BAHAMA
BANK. THE SECOND IS A DEEP LYR VORT MIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PENINSULA. WHILE THE DEEP SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THRU THE
DAY...THE VORT MIN IS TRAPPED UNDER A MID/UPR LVL ANTICYCLONE AND
SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF MOVEMENT. THERE IS A WEAK POCKET OF ENERGY
PUSHING UP FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT WINDS THRU THE H85-H30 LYR
ARE QUITE WEAK...ANY PVA WILL BE WEAK AS WELL.
MOISTURE PROFILE SUPPORTS BOTH A COASTAL/INTERIOR AND A NORTH/SOUTH
ZONE BREAKDOWN. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS INCREASINGLY
DENSE CLOUD COVER LIMITS SFC HEATING WHILE THE LACK OF MID LVL
SUPPORT LIMITS UPDRAFT STRENGTH. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AS PWAT
VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.4" WILL MAKE IT QUITE EASY TO WRING OUT SCT/NMRS
SHRAS FROM THE SATURATED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN ISOLD TSTM COVERAGE.
DESPITE DEEP SRLY FLOW...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SCT/NMRS SHRAS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MU80S. THE SAME CLOUD COVER/SRLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE L/M70S.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...W/R/T TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES
OVER THE GOMEX...THE MORE REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE OF
THE NON-GFS TYPE. THESE BRING A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CTRL GOMEX TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID
LEVEL HGT FIELD BEFORE TURNING IT GRADUALLY WWD ACROSS THE WRN GOMEX
AS A RIDGE BUILDS EWD FROM THE CTRL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
ERN CONUS TROUGH.
THIS WOULD STILL KEEP THE FL PENINSULA IN A VERY MOIST SE TO SOUTH
WIND REGIME WITH PWATS/POPS GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. ONE THING THAT COULD PUT A CRIMP IN THE PRECIP FORECAST WOULD
BE PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING EAST
CTRL GOMEX TC...HOWEVER NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING POP NUMBERS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. SPECIFIC
NUMBERS LOOK LIKE THIS: 60-70 SAT...50-60 SUN...50 MON-TUE AND THEN
30/40 WED THROUGH FRI. TEMPS START OFF A FEW DEGS BELOW CLIMO DUE
TO HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...SLOWLY RISING TO AROUND CLIMO
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 22/15Z...BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD SHRAS S OF
KTIX-KISM...VFR ELSEWHERE. BTWN 22/15Z-22/18Z...WIDESPREAD CIGS BTWN
FL080-100...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALL SITES EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST N OF KTIX WHERE SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE SCT...PRECIP
CONT THRU 22/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK RIDGE AXIS NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL COMBINE WITH
A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GENERATE A MODERATE
S/SERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT
OFFSHORE. LIMITED FETCH LENGTH WITH THE WINDS COMING OFF THE NRN
BAHAMAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SHORT WAVE PDS GENERALLY AOB 6SEC.
NMRS SHRAS AREAWIDE...ISOLD TSRAS MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
SAT-TUE...A FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS EXPECTED AS LOW PRES
SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE CTRL GOMEX. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO INCREASE
TO 15-20KT/6FT FROM ABOUT SUNDAY ONWARD...SO AT THE VERY LEAST WILL
LIKELY SEE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS BEING RAISED LATE THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS/WIND GUSTS AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 76 84 75 / 50 40 60 40
MCO 89 74 87 74 / 50 50 70 50
MLB 86 76 84 76 / 60 60 70 50
VRB 86 75 84 76 / 60 60 70 50
LEE 89 74 86 75 / 50 40 60 40
SFB 89 75 87 74 / 50 40 60 40
ORL 89 74 86 74 / 50 50 70 50
FPR 86 75 84 77 / 70 60 70 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
138 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BORDERING VA ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. UPDATED THEN FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A GENERAL
DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENTLY AN OUTFLOW
IS ALMOST AT OUR NW BLUEGRASS COUNTIES AND WHILE NO EVIDENCE OF FLARE
UPS ARE PRESENT...THE ACTUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT LIES THROUGH SDF NOW AND SO WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS. STILL BANKING ON AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
JUST AFTER SUNRISE SO KEPT THAT IN THE FORECAST. THE OTHER CONCERN
HERE IN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO KEPT THAT IN THE GRIDS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT
OUT ADDRESSING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THIS LINE. A LONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OHIO
DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY/TN HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
KICK OFF MUCH CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT THUS FAR. GIVEN THE LOSS OF
HEATING...IT IS DOUBTFUL IT WILL KICK ANYTHING OFF IN OUR AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN A
BIT...HOLDING ONTO THE POPS THE LONGEST IN THE SOUTH...WHERE A FEW
MORE POPS UP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...DID NOT
WANT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE POPS IN THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY...SO HAVE REDUCED THESE TO ISOLATED CHANCES BY AROUND DAWN.
MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE CURRENT HOURLIES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOK ON
TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU
JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE AREA. WILL HANG
ONTO THE ISOLATED POPS A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE ASSESSING HOW LONG
OF A LULL THERE WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IF NOT
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A
POTENTIAL RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARDS DAWN AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE LATEST SREF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
SCENARIO. FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE HOURLIES TO MATCH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT
APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH
ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT
AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR
THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. AT
THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON
MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID
WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR AT BOTH LOZ AND SME FOR NOW
TOWARDS DAWN AS SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES BY DAWN...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. JUST AFTER SUNRISE...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES. THEREFORE...WILL PUT IN VCTS INTO THE TAF SITES FOR THE
17Z TO 20Z PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESS FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...USHERING IN SOME UNUSUALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE
JUNE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINE LINE ON RADAR SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN
PA...RUNNING FROM KELZ TO KPIT AT 05Z. ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT OVR EASTERN
PA AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA THRU DAWN OVER THE SE
ZONES...WHERE RUC PLACES TONGUE OF HIGHEST PWATS BTWN 06Z-12Z.
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVR LK ERIE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. LATEST MDL SIMULATED RADAR SUGGESTS THESE
SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARDS DAWN.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...TO THE M70S IN THE SE...WHERE
DWPTS REMAIN OVR 70F AND MCLDY SKIES WILL PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS FRIDAY
AND COMBINE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE SE
THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO BRING A QUITE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
FRIDAY.
SVR WX APPEARS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...WHERE FROPA WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRI. SREF DATA
INDICATES THE AREA FROM MDT SEWRD COULD SEE CAPES NEAR
2000J/KG...SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS
MULTI-CELL STORMS AS THE PRIMARY TYPE...ALONG WITH A FEW MINI BOWS
ECHOES WITH ENHANCED/FOCUSED DOWNDRAFTS. SPC HAS THE SE THIRD OF OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS AS IT MOVES
STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS IN
ADVANCE OF FROPA SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED ONE HALF
INCH PLUS RAIN AMTS...WITH MOST PLACES SEEING JUST AROUND 0.25 OF AN
INCH.
AM SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO NR 90F FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF CDFRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD READINGS TO THE U70S ACROSS THE
W MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND
SEASONABLE WX OVER CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS
SAT NIGHT...WHEN HIGH PRES WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVR THE STATE.
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...MCLEAR SKY AND A CALM WIND COULD RESULT
IN SOME READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SAT NIGHT.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS NEXT WEEK. A POTENT COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY LIKELY SHRA/TSRA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN BTWN SUN NITE/MONDAY AND KEEP POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY BOTH PERIODS.
A POCKET OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT NEARLY -2 ST DEVIATIONS AT
850 AND 700 MB...APPEARS ON SCHEDULE TO MIGRATE SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW-
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...ESP ACROSS
THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO CLOSED LOW CENTER.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF COOL AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY WX /MAINLY DURING
THE LATER AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS/...MODERATING CONDS LIKELY FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH A WEAKER CAP WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY ALONG THE MASON
DIXON LINE AND THE I-81 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FORMING...AND APPROACH THE NW MTNS AND
KBFD AROUND 15Z...REACH CENTRAL TAFS AROUND MIDDAY...AND IMPACT
KIPT-KMDT-KLNS IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING
SHORT-DURATION RESTRICTIONS TO TAFS. AFTER 22Z EXPECT FRONT TO
CLEAR THE CWA...WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE...ENDING
BY EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL...ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...
MAY BRING FOR LOW STRATOCU AND FOG/MIST LATE FRI NIGHT...EARLY
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCT TSTM IMPACTS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TSTMS WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS.
MON AND TUE...MVFR CIGS POSS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES:
MDT 6/21 98 1923...OBSERVED HIGH 94
IPT 6/21 97 1923/1933...OBSERVED HIGH 94
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ENTERING NW TN. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PLATEAU WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOULD BE THE ONLY PRECIP THROUGH 12Z IN MIDDLE TN. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SHRA MENTION AT CSV THROUGH ROUGHLY 07-08Z BEFORE
CONVECTION WANES. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO CSV PRIOR TO
12Z DUE TO BR AND PERHAPS A FEW LOWER CLOUDS/BRIEF CIGS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL AND WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MIDDAY
AND LATER. BY THEN THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF
CKV AND BNA. WILL HOLD ONTO VCSH WITH THE FRONT AT CKV TOWARDS
DAWN AND AROUND MID-MORNING AT BNA BUT REALLY DO NOT THINK ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL POP UP UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS CLOSER TO CSV.
HAVE CB/TSRA WORDING IN THERE ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS. WITH
ANY SHRA/TSRA...BRIEF IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER THE MRX CWA. COLD FRONT WELL DEPICTED BY PAH AND LMK RADAR
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BORDER. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND TOWARDS SUNRISE PER GFS/NAM TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS...AND LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH NO PRECIP
DEPICTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL LEAVE IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS UNFORTUNATELY WILL REMAIN DRY. ALSO
ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY PER 18Z/00Z MOS GUIDANCE AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MIDDLE TN...LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE AR/TN BORDER. THE FRONT IS FAIRLY MOISTURE-
STARVED...SO ANY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PLATEAU AFFECTING ONLY CSV OR WELL
WEST OF MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER
04Z...WHERE VSBYS AT CSV SHOULD DROP FROM HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS THERE TOWARDS DAWN.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT IS POST-
FRONTAL...AND WITH THE FRONT NEARING CKV JUST AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...THINK ANY PRECIP ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT AFFECTING BNA AND CSV ONLY. MAY INCLUDE A VCSH
MENTION AT THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL TAILOR BACK THE TS/CB MENTION IN
AT CKV AROUND 12Z JUST TO A VCSH IN CASE FRONTAL PRECIP LASTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
424 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ALBEIT SHALLOW...RICH MOISTURE ON LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAS
LED TO VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO NARROW A FEW
DEGREES FURTHER...WOULD EXPECT THIS LAYER TO EXPAND W-SWWD THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND RAP MAINLY
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WHERE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS SUCH
OCCURRENCES IN THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AHEAD CAN BE GLEANED BY RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH PAINTS A QUIET AND DRY PICTURE. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE THAT
HELPED SUPPORT YESTERDAY`S SCATTERED STORMS HAS SINCE SHIFTED
SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS
PART OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER ANTICYCLONE EDGING CLOSER FROM WRN NEW
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH PROGGED CIN VALUES ARE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THIS TIME ALONG WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPS ON SWLY WINDS SPELLS TOO
SMALL A CHANCE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...SO POPS REMAIN SILENT.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREDOMINANTLY S-SELY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM...
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED THIS WEEKEND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION AND BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDE INTO KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPOUNDING HOW WARM IT WILL
FEEL. CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL JUST A TAD SO IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK AND 100 TO 105 OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERATE SOME FORM OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLIDE IT WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. CURRENT TRACKS KEEP ANY INFLUENCES ON THE WEATHER AND MAY
EVEN BRING SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 98 64 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 90 66 96 65 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 67 97 63 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 94 68 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 69 97 68 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 93 67 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 68 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 71 99 70 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 92 70 97 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 72 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
726 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS THE CLOUDCOVER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -PJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..THE HEAT IS ON...
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE RETURN OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO COLORADO. ALL MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO 20+C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE
RECORDS FOR TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALAMOSA IS 90...AT COLO SPGS IS
95 AND FOR PUEBLO IS 100.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOW RH VALUES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVR MTN AREAS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EL
PASO COUNTY...WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE 06Z NAM12/GFS HINT AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRY LINE ON THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY THE 06Z HRRR TO BE 1500+ J/KG...AND
35 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR STORMS IF
ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SOME ISOLD POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS SO WL LEAVE THROUGH IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PJC
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SATURDAY THROUGH MON AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR OK OR KS...WITH
THE CENTER SHIFTING TO OVR THE TX PANHANDLE FOR TUE. THIS WL KEEP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WITH H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 17C-22C. HIGH TEMPS WL BE AROUND
RECORDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK.
HIGHS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL BE IN THE UPR 90S TO LOWER
100S...UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND MOSTLY 80S IN TELLER COUNTY.
A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY.
THE UPR RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET A
LITTLE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF TRACKS OVR MTS
AND THE DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WL
PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVR
AND NR THE MTS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
DURING THE NEXT 24H. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FRI
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KPUB. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>227.
&&
$$
81/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
442 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...THE HEAT IS ON...
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE RETURN OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO COLORADO. ALL MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO 20+C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE
RECORDS FOR TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALAMOSA IS 90...AT COLO SPGS IS
95 AND FOR PUEBLO IS 100.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOW RH VALUES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVR MTN AREAS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EL
PASO COUNTY...WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE 06Z NAM12/GFS HINT AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRY LINE ON THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY THE 06Z HRRR TO BE 1500+ J/KG...AND
35 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR STORMS IF
ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SOME ISOLD POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS SO WL LEAVE THROUGH IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PJC
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SATURDAY THROUGH MON AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR OK OR KS...WITH
THE CENTER SHIFTING TO OVR THE TX PANHANDLE FOR TUE. THIS WL KEEP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WITH H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 17C-22C. HIGH TEMPS WL BE AROUND
RECORDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK.
HIGHS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL BE IN THE UPR 90S TO LOWER
100S...UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND MOSTLY 80S IN TELLER COUNTY.
A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY.
THE UPR RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET A
LITTLE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF TRACKS OVR MTS
AND THE DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WL
PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVR
AND NR THE MTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
DURING THE NEXT 24H. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FRI
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KPUB. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>227.
&&
$$
81/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
950 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA IS PROJECTED TO SETTLE IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EVENING. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR IN OUR AREA. CU-RULE OFF THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN FADING OUT JUST AS QUICKLY. LARGER AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS THEY GET CLOSER TO US...BUT A FEW REMNANTS MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR TODAY...
BUT NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND THE CURRENT ZONES STILL
LOOK GOOD.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE
HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5
KTS OR LESS ACRS THE WEST...AND AROUND 10 KTS ACRS THE EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
00Z MODELS STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH HANDLING SHORT WAVE IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE
AND QPF FIELDS SAT NIGHT AND BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND....THEN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE COUNTRY. SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN LATER
NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING
BACK TOWARD THE MO AND MID MS VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A NICE EARLY SUMMER DAY AHEAD OF IL COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NE/IA/MO BORDER THAT DRIFTS EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL BY SUNSET. AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN IL. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 80S IN SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER TO TODAY THAN PAST FEW DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SAT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AROUND SD
THIS EVENING TRACKS TOWARD NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SAT AND
WEAKENS/FALLS APART AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE EAST. MOST MODELS KEEP QPF FIELDS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THROUGH
SAT NIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FROM PEORIA NORTH. TEMPS
WARM BACK UP DURING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S SAT AND 90-95F SUNDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS SW
AREAS. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN/SE IL. THIS DUE
TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL. SPC
HAS 5% RISK OF HAIL AND HIGHS WINDS NORTH OF I-70 LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SSE INTO THE MIDWEST MON AND GREAT LAKES REGION TUE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NE AREAS AND DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN SLIP
INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST WED WITH STARTING OF A WARMING
TREND WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY RETURNING LATER NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MO/MID MS VALLEY.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY WORSEN OVER IL.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. THE
12Z NAM AND HRRR SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF FLEMING
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ALSO DECREASED
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES TO 40 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON DIE OUT. KEPT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS. UPSTREAM...THE
FRONT IS NEARLY AT THE CWA BORDER BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY PRESENT NORTH
OF LEX IS MOVING TO THE NE AND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF FLEMING
COUNTY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AS STILL BANKING ON AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL
NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP ACROSS THE AREA HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW
POSITIONED NOW THROUGH CENTRAL OH SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KY JUST
ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH SDF. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 80 AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A REMINISCENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS REACHED THIS AREA AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING THE ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
DEALING WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BLUEGRASS
SEEMS TO BE AROUND 12Z TO 13Z. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN LITTLE ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN A GENERAL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY HEATS UP AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SO WILL GO WITH SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF THE FA FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE GENERAL WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME RUN
OF THE MILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA TODAY AND WITH
THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 15 KFT...WOULD NEED A PRETTY RADICAL
UPDRAFT TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. WILL PROG THE FRONT TO BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
SATURDAY. ONE ISSUE HERE WOULD BE THAT GIVEN HOW SHEARED OUT THIS
FRONT IS LOOKING...A SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL MEAN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS WILL MISS OUT ON MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXTENUATING THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY PERIOD...WHERE LOCATIONS WERE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT...SOME BETTER
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THE DEEP EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THE BEST SETUP FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE LOCATED HERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED RAINFALL...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WITH ALREADY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
BECOMING A VERY STABLE OMEGA BLOCK WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW JUST OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THE BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST AND WILL NOW EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...UP ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE RIDGE
PUSHES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EASTERN LOW WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE THE AREA. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE
BLOCKING SYSTEMS...THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SUSPECT AND COULD
VARY AS MUCH AS 12 HOURS EITHER WAY. WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING
SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONTS TO BE VERY STRONG. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO MCS SYSTEMS WHICH ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE
TO NAIL DOWN THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT FOR A MODEL
BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THEM TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES BY
13Z...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASES. THEREFORE...WILL PUT IN VCTS INTO THE TAF SITES FOR THE
17Z TO 20Z PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. DEPENDING UPON WHAT TAF SITES GET
GOOD PRECIP TODAY WILL DECIDE HOW BAD FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MAY SET UP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NY BACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH IS ALSO
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS MORNING. STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MD THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION STARTING TO BREAK OUT
BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN THE WEST...AND MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND MOST LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS HAS A VERY NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE. WILL BE
A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR EVENT...WITH PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING ARE STEEPER THAN THE 06Z
FORECASTED LAPSE RATES FROM THE NAM.
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS. IN
ADDITION...TRIED TO TIME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THE HRRR
SOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...TAKING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/CLEARING SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
50S BY THIS TIME...SO IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL START
TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE. MAY SEE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOP AND
THIS ALONG WITH TERRAIN MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING CHANCE OF THUNDER IS MINIMAL...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS IN MOIST AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF IS FASTER AND SUGGESTS
AND EARLY MONDAY PASSAGE...BUT PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS
WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS IF SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS LOW AND THUS
KEPT THE GENERAL DRY FORECAST IN GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ANY
CIGS ARE WELL ABOVE 3 KFT. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ONLY A
RESIDUAL 5-6KFT DECK WILL BE LEFTOVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT HELP TO DEVELOP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING THIS AFTN AND ENDING BY LATE EVE. GUSTY
WINDS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS
IS EXPECTED...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ANY TSTMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN VA/ERN MD TODAY.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AOB 15 KT FOR
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFF THE COAST
BY SUNDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT DCA/BWI/IAD ON THURSDAY WERE AS FOLLOWS...
DCA...99F.
BWI...100F.
IAD...96F.
WITH 99 RECORDED...DCA BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
98 SET IN 1988. WITH 100 RECORDED...BWI TIED THE OLD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100 SET IN 1923. AT IAD...96 DID NOT BREAK THE
RECORD WHICH WAS 98 SET IN 1988.
A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 78 WAS ALSO SET AT DCA. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD OF 76 FROM 2010.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
UPDATE TO ZFP AND WRKAFP. HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CLOUDS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A JET MAX AND PIECE OF VORTICITY
MOVING OUT OF UT. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH WY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWED SOME
DEGREE OF CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW TO MID LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION AT 700 MB. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WAS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVED E THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
40S OVER WESTERN SD AND E WY THIS MORNING...SO LOW-LEVELS WILL TAKE
TIME TO MOISTEN UP. THE ABOVE FACTORS POINT TO LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A DRY HRRR AND THE WRF
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ONLY NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
WRF AND ADJUSTED POPS TO IT/S QPF SOLUTION THROUGH 00Z. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BASED ON ANYTHING
THAT CAN GET TRIGGERED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE BLACK
HILLS...AS WELL AS LINGERING DYNAMICS. THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT IN
THE SE LOOKED GOOD BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTING STRONG
SHEAR AND THE HIGH CAPE. ALSO LOW-LEVELS WILL BE MOISTER THIS
EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW SITUATION PLAYS OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND CAN ADJUST EVENING POPS LATER BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHEN A
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS
TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WITH SEVERAL 100+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOK POOR WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BEING
TAPPED INTO. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COOLER AIR WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY NEAR STORMS. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 059/090 062/098 065/098 066/097 057/088 058/088
1/B 20/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 12/T
LVM 087 050/089 051/094 059/092 057/087 049/083 050/082
2/T 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 12/T
HDN 090 056/091 056/100 060/100 062/100 055/090 055/090
1/B 20/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 12/T
MLS 086 061/090 064/095 067/101 067/100 060/090 060/091
1/N 21/B 11/U 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
4BQ 087 060/089 064/094 065/097 066/097 058/088 059/089
1/N 21/U 11/U 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
BHK 081 060/084 061/087 063/090 066/093 059/088 058/087
0/N 31/B 11/N 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
SHR 089 055/092 056/097 061/095 062/095 054/087 055/085
2/T 20/U 00/U 12/T 12/T 21/U 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
748 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER BUT DID NOT
CHANGE TEMPS.
PREVIOUS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EAST THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT MOST OF THESE WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH AN EARLY MENTION IN THE EAST. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH UPPER 50S NOT LIKELY IN THE EAST TILL
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW CU DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOW
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY
ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SO WILL
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH THE TROUGHINESS
OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER H850 TEMPS
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR
SOME SHOWERS. ALSO CONTINUED WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST TEMPS
RANGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SOME LEFTOVER MVFR/POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR AT SITES THIS MORNING
BUT THEN BECOMING ALL VFR BY MIDDAY. SOME SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SITES TO GO SKC THIS EVENING AROUND
SUNSET WITH DISSIPATING CU...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AROUND SUNSET.
EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT TO STILL BE
VFR. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT NW 10KT OR LESS SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD THE WNW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE
ISOLATED NON VFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
SNOWBELT.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP AND CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
LAKE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER BUT DID NOT
CHANGE TEMPS.
PREVIOUS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EAST THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT MOST OF THESE WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH AN EARLY MENTION IN THE EAST. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH UPPER 50S NOT LIKELY IN THE EAST TILL
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW CU DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOW
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY
ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SO WILL
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH THE TROUGHINESS
OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER H850 TEMPS
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR
SOME SHOWERS. ALSO CONTINUED WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST TEMPS
RANGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF ALL SITES BY 08Z WITH MAINLY SHRA STILL
TO POSSIBLY IMPACT CAK YNG AND ERI. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK. APPEARS AS
THOUGH NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR CIGS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
WEST. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM EARLIER
TODAY AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ALTERATIONS OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR TIMING. TO SUPPORT THIS ALSO OBS UPSTREAM OVER MI INDICATING
IFR DEVELOPING THERE AS OF 05Z.
ANY IFR/MVFR WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THEN
MODELS SUGGESTING SOME VFR SCT-BKN CIG AROUND 050 DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY FOR CLE-MFD EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT ALSO
IN THE FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN SITES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR THOUGH
UNTIL THE VERY END OR AFTER 06Z SAT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE
ISOLATED NON VFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
SNOWBELT.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP AND CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
LAKE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT/
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CU ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR AND NAM
TRY TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OUT OF THIS LATER TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A
CAP AROUND 600 MB. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW....BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS...AS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE CURRENT HIGHS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR 06Z TAFS/
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 4Z. AFTER THIS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. /08
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT/
AS EXPECTED...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED ADVECTIVE FORCING
HAS GENERATED FAIR COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
FROM THESE CLOUDS SOME LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ONLY ABOUT 60-90 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND THUS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN THUNDER FREE. DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE A
GREAT DEAL REACHING THE GROUND. ASSISTANCE FROM WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY
SLIDES NORTHEAST...WITH ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION STARTING TO
WEAKEN A BIT BY MIDDAY. DROPPED DOWN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON TO SUB MENTIONABLE. BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND...WILL HAVE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING DRIVEN HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST
WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES...WITH CLOUDS KEEPING SOME UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHEAST. SIDED TOWARD LOWER END OF DEWPOINTS WITH
MIXING TODAY...AS MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LIKELY THAT MCS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND FOLLOW A
GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. TOUGH CALL
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INTERNALLY WITH LOCATION OF
IMPORTANT FEATURES...BUT VERY INCONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL.
DEVELOPMENT LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL. OBVIOUS THAT THE STRONGEST
700 HPA BOUNDARY WILL END UP NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA AS DEFINED BY
THE CURRENT ACCAS...BUT LOOKING AT FORECAST RAOBS AND WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT...WOULD THINK INITIATION LEVELS
WOULD BE CLOSER TO 800 HPA FOR THE NIGHT. INITIATION IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA OR NORTHERN SIDE OF BLACK HILLS...WOULD TAKE THIS
COMPLEX EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD I90 AREA OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA. GAVE MOST POPS A LITTLE MORE OF A BOOST
TONIGHT. OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
STILL HAVE SOME DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTHWEST ALOFT...AND ABOUT
600-900 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO GET
EITHER A SPOTTY DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL THREAT FROM K9V9 TO KYKN
CORRIDOR IN THE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AS VEERS TO DEFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. FAIRLY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTS A
DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THREAT...AND WITH HOW MUCH HEIGHTS BUILD AND
MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM BEHIND...HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. MAX TEMPS
WILL LARGELY BE IMPACTED IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ON SATURDAY...AND
COULD VERY WELL HAVE A 15-20F GRADIENT IN CWA...DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONGLY THE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING TOWARD
MINNESOTA. WEALTH OF EASTERLY FLOW...AND WHILE MAY BE DEALING WITH
SOME STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY...MIXING
WOULD STILL HAVE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A STRONGER TIMING CONSENSUS FOR A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
HAVE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM
12 TO 16C...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT AS DIV Q WANDERS PAST TO GENERATE A
LOW RISK FOR A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. DEBRIS FROM THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...AS LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO WORK FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST. PATTERN RECOGNITION...
AWAY FROM THAT SUGGESTED BY A MUCH TOO FORCEFUL GFS WITH TROUGHING
KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE MIDWEEK... WOULD SUGGEST BY WEDNESDAY THAT
EXTREME WARMTH FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS WOULD START TO NUDGE EASTWARD.
A GOODLY SUBSET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD MIX TO AT LEAST 100 FOR SOME
WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...FOR NOW WILL
PUSH TEMPS A GOOD 3-5 ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE WEST...AND WAIT FOR A
STRONGER CONSENSUS TO GO FURTHER. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
547 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
AS OF 1030Z...IFR STRATUS AT CDS WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW HERE SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS INTACT UNTIL AN HOUR
OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. THREAT OF THESE CIGS EXPANDING CLOSER TO LBB
IS OF CONCERN AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE
OF STRATUS IS ABOUT 35NE LBB. ALREADY NOTING FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
500 FEET WITHIN SIGHT OF LBB...SO FEEL A SHORT WINDOW OF TEMPO
IFR CIGS UNTIL 14Z IS IN ORDER. VFR CONDS TO RETURN RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AOB 11 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
ALBEIT SHALLOW...RICH MOISTURE ON LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAS
LED TO VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO NARROW A FEW
DEGREES FURTHER...WOULD EXPECT THIS LAYER TO EXPAND W-SWWD THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND RAP MAINLY
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WHERE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS SUCH
OCCURRENCES IN THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AHEAD CAN BE GLEANED BY RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH PAINTS A QUIET AND DRY PICTURE. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE THAT
HELPED SUPPORT YESTERDAY`S SCATTERED STORMS HAS SINCE SHIFTED
SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS
PART OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER ANTICYCLONE EDGING CLOSER FROM WRN NEW
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH PROGGED CIN VALUES ARE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THIS TIME ALONG WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPS ON SWLY WINDS SPELLS TOO
SMALL A CHANCE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...SO POPS REMAIN SILENT.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREDOMINANTLY S-SELY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED THIS WEEKEND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION AND BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDE INTO KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPOUNDING HOW WARM IT WILL
FEEL. CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL JUST A TAD SO IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK AND 100 TO 105 OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERATE SOME FORM OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLIDE IT WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. CURRENT TRACKS KEEP ANY INFLUENCES ON THE WEATHER AND MAY
EVEN BRING SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 98 64 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 90 66 96 65 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 67 97 63 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 94 68 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 69 97 68 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 93 67 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 68 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 71 99 70 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 92 70 97 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 72 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
848 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast this morning to remove the mention of thunder
east of Moses Lake until later this afternoon. Plenty of mid/high
clouds with virga moving through the region. Some rain is reaching
the ground in the Cascades and western Basin with a few lightning
strikes there.
Forecast gets really tricky this afternoon. The extensive cloud
sheild is going to hold temperatures down this morning. But we`re
starting off fairly warm (due to the overnight cloud cover).
Clearing is moving up from northeast Oregon into southeast
Washington at the moment. This should result in a partly sunny
afternoon for most of the area east of Moses Lake. This coupled
with the near 50s dew points should allow the atmosphere to
destabilize. NAM and HRRR show CAPEs in excess of 1000 J/kg from
Republic over to the Panhandle and down into the Clearwater
mountains. But the models don`t show much convective initiation.
The GFS has absolutely nothing for instability, except over the
Blue Mtns.
All models show good dynamic lift with the short waves rotating
aroud the offshore low. So there doesn`t appear to be any strong
subsidence to hold down the convection. I`ll continue to monitor
the HRRR updates to see if it latches on to any changes. But at
this point my best guess would be to see convection fire over
northeast Oregon and the Clearwaters (since they will have the most
sunshine to destabilize). The southerly flow would steer the
storms northward into the northern Panhandle and extreme eastern WA.
The other item of concern is the potential for heavy rain in the
Cascades. New 12Z GFS is just starting to come in and it continues
the idea of previous runs. Unstable southeasterly flow with good
moisture (235% of normal Precipitable Water) usually spells heavy
rain there. Some locations could see up to an inch of water. The
speed of the storms should be fast enough to prevent flash
flooding but training of storms is possible. I am considering some
sort of hydrologic warning or advisory for this. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Thunderstorms are the main aviation concern today.
Southerly flow ahead of a deep closed low off the coast will usher
in mid level moisture and instability. Isolated thunderstorms
expected this morning will give way to an increase in showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and especially in the evening. Strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds and moderate hail are possible over
the Idaho Panhandle between 21z Friday - 06z Saturday where
instability is greatest. Following the showers and thunderstorms
Friday evening low level upslope winds at KGEG/KSFF/KPUW and a moist
boundary layer it is possible a MVFR stratus deck could develop. Low
confidence that this will occur with the NAM most excited about
this. For now only used a SCT020-025 cloud group. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 50 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 50 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 50 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 50 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 50 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 50 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 60 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 60 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
440 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A deep closed low off the Washington
coast this morning will slowly drop southeast towards the Oregon
coast through Saturday. Southerly flow will draw in increased
moisture and instability with a good thunderstorm pattern shaping
up for the Inland Northwest. For this morning a couple of waves
noted on water vapor will move up into the Inland Northwest. One
will pass through North Central Washington with the second one
moving into Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Elevated moisture
and instability will pass through with stability parameters
indicating a marginal thunder threat. HRRR is also not as excited
about convection showing mainly elevated showers passing through
during the morning. Still can not rule out a thunderstorm for most
locations of the Inland Northwest this morning. For this afternoon
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as both mid level
instability and surface based instability increases. Surface
convection looks to be capped over most of the area today although
late in the afternoon the cap may dissipate over the northern
mountains and Idaho Panhandle. If it does so thunderstorms could
become strong where GFS and NAM indicate an axis of maximum
instability under a theta e ridge axis. The NAM is especially
unstable with CAPES as high as 1000-1500 J/KG. Wind shear values
are highest over the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mountains
with 0-6km values 40-50 knots. This is where the best chance of an
isolated severe thunderstorm occurring exists with large hail and
gusty winds. For the Cascades the southeast flow will favor
potential for heavy rain with thunderstorms that occur.
For tonight a stronger wave moving towards the coast this morning
will cross the Cascades in the evening. This will bring an
increase in showers and thunderstorms this evening especially over
the Idaho Panhandle where strong thunderstorms are a good
possibility with isolated severe storms not out of the question.
This wave lifts north into Canada overnight and should see a
decrease in shower/thunderstorm activity overnight. However an
axis of elevated instability arcs from Pullman to Spokane to Omak
and areas eastward with nocturnal thunderstorms expected.
On Saturday yet another strong wave rounds the closed low. GFS and
NAM indicate an axis of highest instability again from the Idaho
Panhandle and Northeast Washington Mountains. Amount of
instability differs with GFS showing CAPES as high as 2000 J/KG
with mid 60 dewpoints and the NAM around 1000 J/KG with NAM
dewpoints in the upper 50s. NAM seems more realistic but even this
amount of CAPE with 0-6km shear values of 60 knots could result in
isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail. Elsewhere
negative theta e lapse rates and surface based instability being
uncapped will lead to isolated thunderstorms.
Rain associated with showers and thunderstorms will lead to rises
on some rivers and streams especially in the Cascades where snow
melt continues to also be a factor. No flooding is expected at
this time but this can not be ruled out. JW
Sunday and Monday: Sunday and Monday have a good chance of being
quieter weather days than Friday and Saturday. Despite little
movement of the upper low off the Oregon coast, there is good
agreement between the 00z runs of the NAM, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
that drier/more stable air will spread over the Inland Northwest.
This statement doesn`t seem to make a lot of sense given the
persistence of deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest.
However, the tap of subtropical moisture being fed into our region
will likely be interrupted Sunday and Monday. The AMSU satellite
imagery over the eastern Pacific as of 2 AM Friday morning shows
an expansive plume of 1 inch to 1.4 inches of precipitable water
streaming into northern California and Oregon. By Sunday, this tap
of deep atmospheric moisture will be pinched off and the resulting
southerly flow over the Pacific Moisture will be much drier. There
may still be sufficient low/mid level moisture for widely
scattered convection, but showers will not be as widespread as on
Friday and Saturday. The result should be afternoon temperatures
at or above average Sunday and Monday and at least some periods of
sunshine.
Tuesday: The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models and ensembles have trended
toward good agreement for Tuesday. The upper low off the Oregon
coast will likely lift northeast and track across the Inland
Northwest on Tuesday. The entire Pacific Northwest will have a
chance of precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday with this
system. The trajectory of this system and the axis of best
instability suggests that northeast Washington and north Idaho
will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday should be a dry day for the majority of the region in
the wake of Tuesday`s frontal passage. /GKoch
Thursday through Saturday...A upper level low is expected to be
over the Northern Pacific and will bring a shortwave trough into
the area late Friday. Models are in poor agreement over moisture
associated with this trough. Pops and Sky Cover increase in the
later period as the trough approaches and increases moisture in
the region. Rain is expected in the northern portion of the region
late Friday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Thunderstorms are the main aviation concern today.
Southerly flow ahead of a deep closed low off the coast will usher
in mid level moisture and instability. Isolated thunderstorms
expected this morning will give way to an increase in showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and especially in the evening. Strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds and moderate hail are possible over
the Idaho Panhandle between 21z Friday - 06z Saturday where
instability is greatest. Following the showers and thunderstorms
Friday evening low level upslope winds at KGEG/KSFF/KPUW and a moist
boundary layer it is possible a MVFR stratus deck could develop. Low
confidence that this will occur with the NAM most excited about
this. For now only used a SCT020-025 cloud group. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 50 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 50 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 50 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 50 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 50 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 50 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 60 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 60 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
304 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A deep closed low off the Washington
coast this morning will slowly drop southeast towards the Oregon
coast through Saturday. Southerly flow will draw in increased
moisture and instability with a good thunderstorm pattern shaping
up for the Inland Northwest. For this morning a couple of waves
noted on water vapor will move up into the Inland Northwest. One
will pass through North Central Washington with the second one
moving into Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Elevated moisture
and instability will pass through with stability parameters
indicating a marginal thunder threat. HRRR is also not as excited
about convection showing mainly elevated showers passing through
during the morning. Still can not rule out a thunderstorm for most
locations of the Inland Northwest this morning. For this afternoon
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as both mid level
instability and surface based instability increases. Surface
convection looks to be capped over most of the area today although
late in the afternoon the cap may dissipate over the northern
mountains and Idaho Panhandle. If it does so thunderstorms could
become strong where GFS and NAM indicate an axis of maximum
instability under a theta e ridge axis. The NAM is especially
unstable with CAPES as high as 1000-1500 J/KG. Wind shear values
are highest over the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mountains
with 0-6km values 40-50 knots. This is where the best chance of an
isolated severe thunderstorm occurring exists with large hail and
gusty winds. For the Cascades the southeast flow will favor
potential for heavy rain with thunderstorms that occur.
For tonight a stronger wave moving towards the coast this morning
will cross the Cascades in the evening. This will bring an
increase in showers and thunderstorms this evening especially over
the Idaho Panhandle where strong thunderstorms are a good
possibility with isolated severe storms not out of the question.
This wave lifts north into Canada overnight and should see a
decrease in shower/thunderstorm activity overnight. However an
axis of elevated instability arcs from Pullman to Spokane to Omak
and areas eastward with nocturnal thunderstorms expected.
On Saturday yet another strong wave rounds the closed low. GFS and
NAM indicate an axis of highest instability again from the Idaho
Panhandle and Northeast Washington Mountains. Amount of
instability differs with GFS showing CAPES as high as 2000 J/KG
with mid 60 dewpoints and the NAM around 1000 J/KG with NAM
dewpoints in the upper 50s. NAM seems more realistic but even this
amount of CAPE with 0-6km shear values of 60 knots could result in
isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail. Elsewhere
negative theta e lapse rates and surface based instability being
uncapped will lead to isolated thunderstorms.
Rain associated with showers and thunderstorms will lead to rises
on some rivers and streams especially in the Cascades where snow
melt continues to also be a factor. No flooding is expected at
this time but this can not be ruled out. JW
Sunday and Monday: Sunday and Monday have a good chance of being
quieter weather days than Friday and Saturday. Despite little
movement of the upper low off the Oregon coast, there is good
agreement between the 00z runs of the NAM, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
that drier/more stable air will spread over the Inland Northwest.
This statement doesn`t seem to make a lot of sense given the
persistence of deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest.
However, the tap of subtropical moisture being fed into our region
will likely be interrupted Sunday and Monday. The AMSU satellite
imagery over the eastern Pacific as of 2 AM Friday morning shows
an expansive plume of 1 inch to 1.4 inches of precipitable water
streaming into northern California and Oregon. By Sunday, this tap
of deep atmospheric moisture will be pinched off and the resulting
southerly flow over the Pacific Moisture will be much drier. There
may still be sufficient low/mid level moisture for widely
scattered convection, but showers will not be as widespread as on
Friday and Saturday. The result should be afternoon temperatures
at or above average Sunday and Monday and at least some periods of
sunshine.
Tuesday: The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models and ensembles have trended
toward good agreement for Tuesday. The upper low off the Oregon
coast will likely lift northeast and track across the Inland
Northwest on Tuesday. The entire Pacific Northwest will have a
chance of precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday with this
system. The trajectory of this system and the axis of best
instability suggests that northeast Washington and north Idaho
will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday should be a dry day for the majority of the region in
the wake of Tuesday`s frontal passage. /GKoch
Thursday through Saturday...A upper level low is expected to be
over the Northern Pacific and will bring a shortwave trough into
the area late Friday. Models are in poor agreement over moisture
associated with this trough. Pops and Sky Cover increase in the
later period as the trough approaches and increases moisture in
the region. Rain is expected in the northern portion of the region
late Friday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were crossing
into south central Washington at 0530Z and they will move through
the basin by 10z. KGEG may be on the eastern edge of this activity.
Latest guidance suggest main threat with stronger thunderstorms
Friday afternoon will be from the Lewiston area east of KCOE and
into the Northern Panhandle and the Northeast Mountains of
Washington. Some of these storms could produce strong winds and
moderate sized hail. This activity should move through quickly
with things settling down after 03z. JL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 50 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 40 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 50 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 50 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 50 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 50 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 50 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 60 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 60 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THE NEXT
24H...WITH S-SW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS IN THE 19Z-02Z TIME
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...EAST OF A TRINIDAD TO LIMON LINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS THE CLOUDCOVER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -PJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
.THE HEAT IS ON...
ONE OF THE TWO MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE RETURN OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO COLORADO. ALL MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO 20+C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE
RECORDS FOR TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALAMOSA IS 90...AT COLO SPGS IS
95 AND FOR PUEBLO IS 100.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOW RH VALUES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVR MTN AREAS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EL
PASO COUNTY...WHERE THE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE 06Z NAM12/GFS HINT AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRY LINE ON THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY THE 06Z HRRR TO BE 1500+ J/KG...AND
35 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR STORMS IF
ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SOME ISOLD POPS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS SO WL LEAVE THROUGH IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PJC
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SATURDAY THROUGH MON AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR OK OR KS...WITH
THE CENTER SHIFTING TO OVR THE TX PANHANDLE FOR TUE. THIS WL KEEP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WITH H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 17C-22C. HIGH TEMPS WL BE AROUND
RECORDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK.
HIGHS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL BE IN THE UPR 90S TO LOWER
100S...UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND MOSTLY 80S IN TELLER COUNTY.
A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY.
THE UPR RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET A
LITTLE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF TRACKS OVR MTS
AND THE DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WL
PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVR
AND NR THE MTS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
DURING THE NEXT 24H. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FRI
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KPUB. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222-
224>227.
&&
$$
10/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
631 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL GO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AREA FOR 3-4 HOURS IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PORTION INCLUDING LANCASTER...CHESTERFIELD...KERSHAW
AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS NC...WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OR LOWER
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AVAILABILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE AND TRACK OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ORTHOGRAPHIC EFFECTS LOOK TO KEEP BULK OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. LATEST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE
INCLUDING SREF POPS...MOS THUNDER PROBABILITIES...AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR INDICATES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER W NC...MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE ESE. SOME STORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN FA. CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG AT AGS AND OGB WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WEAK FRONT IS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ARE TRYING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUTFLOW RACING AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING
SOME WEAKENING. ATMOSPHERE IS CAPED SOUTH SO MENTION OF THUNDER LEFT
OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
456 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SW ACROSS W NC. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLAN TO KEEP THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FROM CAE NORTHWARD AND TO THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER JUST TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS NC...WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH
OR LOWER JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AVAILABILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
TRACK OF WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ORTHOGRAPHIC EFFECTS LOOK TO KEEP BULK
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. LATEST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE
INCLUDING SREF POPS...MOS THUNDER PROBABILITIES...AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR INDICATES
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER W NC...MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE ESE. SOME STORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN FA. CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE POP GUIDANCE...BUT MEDIAN VALUES
SUGGEST LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
KEPT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOISTURE APPEARS HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...MORE MARGINAL CSRA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POPS REMAIN
LOW...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK...AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG AT AGS AND OGB WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WEAK FRONT IS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ARE TRYING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUTFLOW RACING AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING
SOME WEAKENING. ATMOSPHERE IS CAPED SOUTH SO MENTION OF THUNDER LEFT
OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA IS PROJECTED TO SETTLE IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EVENING. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR IN OUR AREA. CU-RULE OFF THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN FADING OUT JUST AS QUICKLY. LARGER AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS THEY GET CLOSER TO US...BUT A FEW REMNANTS MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR TODAY...
BUT NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND THE CURRENT ZONES STILL
LOOK GOOD.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
HAVE SEEN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5-6KFT THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS...BUT SOME DECREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.
MAY SEE SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES LATER
SATURDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTION DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
00Z MODELS STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH HANDLING SHORT WAVE IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE
AND QPF FIELDS SAT NIGHT AND BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND....THEN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE COUNTRY. SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN LATER
NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING
BACK TOWARD THE MO AND MID MS VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A NICE EARLY SUMMER DAY AHEAD OF IL COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NE/IA/MO BORDER THAT DRIFTS EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL BY SUNSET. AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN IL. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 80S IN SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER TO TODAY THAN PAST FEW DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND SAT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AROUND SD
THIS EVENING TRACKS TOWARD NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SAT AND
WEAKENS/FALLS APART AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE EAST. MOST MODELS KEEP QPF FIELDS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THROUGH
SAT NIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FROM PEORIA NORTH. TEMPS
WARM BACK UP DURING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S SAT AND 90-95F SUNDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS SW
AREAS. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN/SE IL. THIS DUE
TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL. SPC
HAS 5% RISK OF HAIL AND HIGHS WINDS NORTH OF I-70 LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SSE INTO THE MIDWEST MON AND GREAT LAKES REGION TUE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NE AREAS AND DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN SLIP
INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST WED WITH STARTING OF A WARMING
TREND WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY RETURNING LATER NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MO/MID MS VALLEY.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY WORSEN OVER IL.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
544 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
...UPDATED UPDATE AND AVIATION SECTIONS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTINUES TO
FLOW IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
JOULES/KG EXISTS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABSENCE OF A MECHANISM TO
FORCE ASCENT HAVE PRECLUDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DID FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z BUT DIED
QUICKLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LIKELY AT THE EDGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING TO
BUBBLE THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY, AND VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN WYOMING WITH A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 14Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
NEAR 050 WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AND GRADUALLY EVAPORATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 105 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 105 74 107 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 105 73 105 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 70 105 73 106 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 70 105 75 106 / 10 0 0 0
P28 70 100 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUTHI
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
402 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL POPS FAR WEST AND
WILL KEEP SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AROUND HAYS
CLOSER TO THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE WRF NMM
THAT HAS MCS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALSO THE NEW HRRR HAS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A WARM PLUME COMING OUT OF COLORADO THAT INTERACTS
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CAP TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID WILL THROUGH IN A SMALL POP IN
OUR WEST TO COVER THE NEW HRRR SOLUTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 55
MPH SETS UP TONIGHT AND GOOD MIXING CONTINUES SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY MILD AND AROUND 70 TO 72 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY THE HEAT TURNS UP WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30 TO 34
CELSIUS AND MIXDOWN TEMPS TO THE GROUND AROUND 105. WILL RAISE TEMPS
TO AROUND 104 TO 106 FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST AND NEAR
100 EAST OF THAT LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE AN EML BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
HELP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, I THINK CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY MOSTLY DIFFER IN THE DIRECTION A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TOWARDS
TEXAS BY THURSDAY WHERE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MENTIONED IN
THE LAST SECTION COULD STAY ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY VERY WARM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BRING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS IN A WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. IT WOULD ALSO FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CREXTENDED SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVING OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. I HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 0 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS INTO
SATURDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH 700MB MOISTURE AND WAA
WILL BREAK TO CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE TILL EARLY EVENING THEN
A LLJ WILL SETUP JUST ABOVE THE GROUND TO NEAR 50 KTS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 15 TO 22 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 22 TO
32 KTS BY 15-16Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AROUND HAYS AND
WAKEENEY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS
BASED ON DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE RH INTO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR
TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES BUT NOT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS OF
YET. AT THIS TIME WITH A MARGINAL EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY COULD MIX
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 105 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 105 74 107 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 105 73 105 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 70 105 73 106 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 70 105 75 106 / 10 0 0 0
P28 70 100 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY WARM MINS EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
AREA. THIS COULD BEING THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL WARM NIGHTS IN A
ROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS DID FINE ON THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST AT MID LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE WINDS WITH NO
QUESTION THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WELL TO THE WEST. OTHER
PROBLEMS IS WITH HIGH CENTER NEARLY ON TOP OF US AND EXTREMELY DRY
AND HOT MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION. ALSO STORM MOTION WOULD
NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN/SETUP. OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST.
ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. CONTINUED THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAYS. RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDING THE ALL TIME JUNE MAX FOR KGLD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM MINS IN PLACE.
MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IT WAS FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT MID LEVELS. MID/UPPER HIGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH STORM MOTIONS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN LIFT STILL TO THE WEST PLUS EML AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY TOASTY...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.
CURRENTLY HAVE MAXES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
MODELS MAY BE COOLING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH CONVECTIVE ISSUES
CAUSING THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CHANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN HAVING THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THIS. MID/UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND
EML/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT AREA WILL BE
OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONT HANGING AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SO THE CRH_INIT GRIDS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE AND KEPT. REMAINING GRIDS ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IF FORECAST FOR KGLD ENDS UP RIGHT...WE WILL SEE SIX STRAIGHT DAYS OF
100 PLUS. SOMETHING THAT ONCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HEAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED AT KGLD AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS...AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND 35KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATES:
SATURDAY...
GOODLAND.....106 IN 1954...ALL TIME HIGH FOR JUNE IS 109(1936)
HILL CITY....107 IN 1952
MCCOOK.......106 IN 1954
BURLINGTON...106 IN 1954
YUMA.........107
TRIBUNE......105
COLBY........105
SUNDAY...
GOODLAND.....107 IN 1971
HILL CITY....108 IN 1971
MCCOOK.......107 IN 1943
BURLINGTON...107 IN 1954
YUMA.........103
TRIBUNE......107
COLBY........107
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
101 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SW CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF
OUR CWA. A STRONG CAP...HIGHLIGHTED BY CINH VALUES OVER 100 SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE CAP IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS/DRY LINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z WHEN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS...WITH
ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LEE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER TO BE OVER OUR CWA.
H5 RIDGE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A VERY
HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES APPROACH 110
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY HOT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH THE LEE TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A BROAD RIDGE OMEGA PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. A HEAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH MAKE IT INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO MON THROUGH
WED...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...500MB HIGH BEGINS
TO ELONGATE AND RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED AT KGLD AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS...AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND 35KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH 01Z. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 35 WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. LATEST RUC BL WINDS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS...AND WITH STRATUS STILL
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ONLY IMPROVE. I
CONSIDERED HAVING THE ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 03Z...HOWEVER OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING TO AN END AROUND
00-01Z WHEN WE BEGIN TO LOOSE DAYTIME MIXING. THOUGH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD COME TO AN END...WE WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST SKY COVER THIS MORNING FOR
STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN CWA. GOOD BL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH SUPPORTING CONTINUED STRATUS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THIS STRATUS ERODING MIDDAY...SO I KEPT AFTERNOON SKY
COVER IN MOSTLY SUNNY CATEGORY. I ADJUSTED TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NW TO SHOW POSSIBILITY FOR EARLIER INITIATION AS CAP
WEAKENS OVER YUMA COUNTY. CAP REMAINS STRONG ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWEST CIN AROUND -40 IN PROXIMITY OF
DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 00Z. IF THE STRATUS WERE TO
HOLD ON HOWEVER THIS COULD GREATLY AFFECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE TODAY WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOCUSING ALONG THE
TROUGH AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER
AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A BROAD RIDGE OMEGA PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. A HEAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH MAKE IT INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO MON THROUGH
WED...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...500MB HIGH BEGINS
TO ELONGATE AND RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED AT KGLD AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
STRATUS BECOMING SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS...AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND 35KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1107 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH 01Z. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 35 WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. LATEST RUC BL WINDS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS...AND WITH STRATUS STILL
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ONLY IMPROVE. I
CONSIDERED HAVING THE ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 03Z...HOWEVER OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING TO AN END AROUND
00-01Z WHEN WE BEGIN TO LOOSE DAYTIME MIXING. THOUGH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD COME TO AN END...WE WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST SKY COVER THIS MORNING FOR
STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN CWA. GOOD BL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH SUPPORTING CONTINUED STRATUS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THIS STRATUS ERODING MIDDAY...SO I KEPT AFTERNOON SKY
COVER IN MOSTLY SUNNY CATEGORY. I ADJUSTED TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NW TO SHOW POSSIBILITY FOR EARLIER INITIATION AS CAP
WEAKENS OVER YUMA COUNTY. CAP REMAINS STRONG ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWEST CIN AROUND -40 IN PROXIMITY OF
DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 00Z. IF THE STRATUS WERE TO
HOLD ON HOWEVER THIS COULD GREATLY AFFECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE TODAY WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOCUSING ALONG THE
TROUGH AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER
AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A BROAD RIDGE OMEGA PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. A HEAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH MAKE IT INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO MON THROUGH
WED...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...500MB HIGH BEGINS
TO ELONGATE AND RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
VFR WITH OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGLD THIS MORNING THROUGH 18Z AS A PLUME OF HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY AFTER 00Z. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AFTER ABOUT 14Z AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS THE
STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT BOTH
KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. KMCK WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER ABOUT 15Z
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...WITH A STORM MOVING ACROSS
ELLIOTT COUNTY AT 1724Z...AND SOME SMALL ECHOES SHOWING UP OVER
POWELL AND MENIFEE COUNTIES. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
GRIDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. THE
12Z NAM AND HRRR SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF FLEMING
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ALSO DECREASED
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES TO 40 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON DIE OUT. KEPT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS. UPSTREAM...THE
FRONT IS NEARLY AT THE CWA BORDER BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY PRESENT NORTH
OF LEX IS MOVING TO THE NE AND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF FLEMING
COUNTY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AS STILL BANKING ON AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL
NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP ACROSS THE AREA HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW
POSITIONED NOW THROUGH CENTRAL OH SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KY JUST
ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH SDF. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 80 AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A REMINISCENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS REACHED THIS AREA AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING THE ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
DEALING WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BLUEGRASS
SEEMS TO BE AROUND 12Z TO 13Z. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN LITTLE ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN A GENERAL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY HEATS UP AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SO WILL GO WITH SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF THE FA FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE GENERAL WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME RUN
OF THE MILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA TODAY AND WITH
THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 15 KFT...WOULD NEED A PRETTY RADICAL
UPDRAFT TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. WILL PROG THE FRONT TO BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
SATURDAY. ONE ISSUE HERE WOULD BE THAT GIVEN HOW SHEARED OUT THIS
FRONT IS LOOKING...A SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL MEAN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS WILL MISS OUT ON MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXTENUATING THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY PERIOD...WHERE LOCATIONS WERE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT...SOME BETTER
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THE DEEP EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THE BEST SETUP FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE LOCATED HERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED RAINFALL...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WITH ALREADY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
BECOMING A VERY STABLE OMEGA BLOCK WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW JUST OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THE BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST AND WILL NOW EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...UP ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE RIDGE
PUSHES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EASTERN LOW WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE THE AREA. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE
BLOCKING SYSTEMS...THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SUSPECT AND COULD
VARY AS MUCH AS 12 HOURS EITHER WAY. WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING
SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONTS TO BE VERY STRONG. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO MCS SYSTEMS WHICH ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE
TO NAIL DOWN THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT FOR A MODEL
BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THEM TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDER IN TAFS. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN DRY WILL NOT PLACE ANY FOG IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. IF AN ISOLATED STORM WAS TO MOVE ACROSS A TAF
SITE TODAY...FOG WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PER RAP ANALYSIS AND LAPS DATA SUGGEST
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB IS BEING REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...CATCHING THE BRUNT OF THE DRY AIR. THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT
KPHG HAS FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAVE SINCE PLUMMETED TO NEAR
15%. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE
17KTS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN RFW FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION TO THE OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
THROUGH AXIS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OMEGA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SHOULD BE RELEGATED.
QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
RESPOND BY SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE
NAM...AS WELL AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM...SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FORCING...COULD ALSO MOVE ALONG OR NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TONIGHT THUS ALSO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND RELEGATE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...BUT ALSO
BROUGHT LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
FARTHER SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP OFFS OF ~20 DEGREES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
PRESENTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL PRESENT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PLUMMET TO
LEVELS WELL BELOW 20%...BUT THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR RFW ISSUANCE ON
SATURDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND HOT PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
15C TO 17C INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG CAP THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY
MID WEEK AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ACT TO FURTHER FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...THE ECMWF IS CERTAINLY THE DRIER
OF THE TWO MODELS INDICATING ESSENTIALLY NO QPF FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY LOW END QPF...WHICH UNDER THIS STRONG CAP
AND UPPER RIDGE SEEM FOR THE MOST PART TO BE RATHER UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
12Z ECMWF WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE INTRODUCING LOW END POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWEST SINKING SFC COOL FRONT THAT MAY
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
THIS IS REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF. IN FACT SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE NO RELIEF AT ALL WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 107 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS
IN THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR FULLERTON...TO THE MID 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE COOL FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT TRYING TO PUSH A FEW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HOTTER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINAL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST 06Z-12Z WHICH IF REALIZED...WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. PROB30 GROUP 06Z-12Z EXISTS IN THE TAF AS A RESULT. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THIS EVENING...WITH
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5000FT AGL POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AIRMASS GENERALLY STABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF +1 TO +2. IN THE TOLEDO AREA HOWEVER VALUES ARE -1 WITH MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLE
EVENING CONVECTION NORTHWEST WHERE THE RUC SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S SO LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN PAST NIGHTS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND LOWER
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY...DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE SO WILL GO WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NO CHANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL DROP TO THE 50S AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT EAST
HOWEVER AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL HOLD LOWS TO AROUND 60 WEST.
SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BEGIN THE DAY CENTERED OVER PA WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BEING WARMER AIR BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA WITH
WARM FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S NORTHWEST WITH LOW AND MID 80S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT...PUSHED
BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING...MODELS
HAVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES DROPPING SOUTH.
WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORNING SOUTH. MONDAY AFTERNOON
DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
+6C WITH DEEP MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. CONCERNED THAT SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR OVER THE LAKE TO
ALLOW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS
NORTH SHORE MONDAY AND NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MONDAY FROM NEAR 70 NORTHEAST TO MID 70S
WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS TO SPEED
UP THE CHANGE FROM TROUGH CONDITIONS TO RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY...OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
WE WILL START OUT THE WEEK WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE HEAT
SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA.
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE A THREAT FOR WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE DETAILS CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE BUT
WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE THREAT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS (SCT-
BKN050-070) THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A NICE SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STABLE CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN PATCHY CLOUDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME NW OHIO OR NW PENNSYLVANIA BUT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO FORECAST IT IN THE TAF FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NON VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT FLOW OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE
ERIE ON SATURDAY...THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL MOST LIKELY DOMINATE THE WIND
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE
ERIE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EARLY WEEK PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER BUT DID NOT
CHANGE TEMPS.
PREVIOUS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EAST THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT MOST OF THESE WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH AN EARLY MENTION IN THE EAST. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER NW OH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH UPPER 50S NOT LIKELY IN THE EAST TILL
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW CU DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOW
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY
ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SO WILL
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH THE TROUGHINESS
OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER H850 TEMPS
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR
SOME SHOWERS. ALSO CONTINUED WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST TEMPS
RANGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AND WED. RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS (SCT-
BKN050-070) THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A NICE SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STABLE CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN PATCHY CLOUDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME NW OHIO OR NW PENNSYLVANIA BUT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO FORECAST IT IN THE TAF FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NON VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT BEGINNING MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP AND CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
LAKE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE CAP REMAINS IN CHARGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL VAD
WINDS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM NW KS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SW SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE LLJ. 18Z MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW TONGUE OF 55 TO 60F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO
EXTREME SW SD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES FROM SPC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
JUST OVER 2000 J/KG JUST INTO SD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHILE OTHER
SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A STRONG MAXIMUM OF NORTH WARD WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM SW NEBRASKA TOWARD SW SD AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM OF
SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY OVER SW SD...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE 17Z RUN NOW SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER NE WY AND NW NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z AND DEVELOPING
INTO TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE WE DO NOT RELY ON THE
DETAILS...THE EVIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. IF SO...THE CAPE AND SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER CELL CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER TO BE WATCHED IS EVIDENCE IN THE 18Z
MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS OF A WARM FRONT FROM SW SD ACROSS CENTRAL
SD WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ENHANCING SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST KM...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE WRN CWA. THOUGH INSTABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL CWA...STRONG
CAP IN PLACE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE AND FORCING REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY.
EXTENDED...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF WITH A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND START A SLOW COOLING TREND BY
DRAGGING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF FORECASTS
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BLACK HILLS REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THIS EVENING. THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING UP AND MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER AND 77
LONG TERM....CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT/
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CU ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR AND NAM
TRY TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OUT OF THIS LATER TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A
CAP AROUND 600 MB. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW....BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS...AS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE CURRENT HIGHS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION INITIATES THIS EVENING AND EXACTLY WHERE IT TRACKS. COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AFTER 0Z NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90..BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY SOLUTION BRINGS THE BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES BY 05Z...THEN TO INTERSTATE
29 BY 07Z...BUT AGAIN THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER STORMS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT GUSTY BEHIND THE CONVECTION IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT/
AS EXPECTED...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED ADVECTIVE FORCING
HAS GENERATED FAIR COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
FROM THESE CLOUDS SOME LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ONLY ABOUT 60-90 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND THUS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN THUNDER FREE. DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE A
GREAT DEAL REACHING THE GROUND. ASSISTANCE FROM WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY
SLIDES NORTHEAST...WITH ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION STARTING TO
WEAKEN A BIT BY MIDDAY. DROPPED DOWN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON TO SUB MENTIONABLE. BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND...WILL HAVE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING DRIVEN HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST
WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES...WITH CLOUDS KEEPING SOME UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHEAST. SIDED TOWARD LOWER END OF DEWPOINTS WITH
MIXING TODAY...AS MOISTURE RETURN HOLDS OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LIKELY THAT MCS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND FOLLOW A
GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. TOUGH CALL
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INTERNALLY WITH LOCATION OF
IMPORTANT FEATURES...BUT VERY INCONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL.
DEVELOPMENT LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL. OBVIOUS THAT THE STRONGEST
700 HPA BOUNDARY WILL END UP NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA AS DEFINED BY
THE CURRENT ACCAS...BUT LOOKING AT FORECAST RAOBS AND WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT...WOULD THINK INITIATION LEVELS
WOULD BE CLOSER TO 800 HPA FOR THE NIGHT. INITIATION IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA OR NORTHERN SIDE OF BLACK HILLS...WOULD TAKE THIS
COMPLEX EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD I90 AREA OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA. GAVE MOST POPS A LITTLE MORE OF A BOOST
TONIGHT. OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
STILL HAVE SOME DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTHWEST ALOFT...AND ABOUT
600-900 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO GET
EITHER A SPOTTY DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL THREAT FROM K9V9 TO KYKN
CORRIDOR IN THE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AS VEERS TO DEFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. FAIRLY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTS A
DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THREAT...AND WITH HOW MUCH HEIGHTS BUILD AND
MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM BEHIND...HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. MAX TEMPS
WILL LARGELY BE IMPACTED IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ON SATURDAY...AND
COULD VERY WELL HAVE A 15-20F GRADIENT IN CWA...DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONGLY THE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING TOWARD
MINNESOTA. WEALTH OF EASTERLY FLOW...AND WHILE MAY BE DEALING WITH
SOME STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY...MIXING
WOULD STILL HAVE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A STRONGER TIMING CONSENSUS FOR A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
HAVE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM
12 TO 16C...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT AS DIV Q WANDERS PAST TO GENERATE A
LOW RISK FOR A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. DEBRIS FROM THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...AS LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO WORK FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST. PATTERN RECOGNITION...
AWAY FROM THAT SUGGESTED BY A MUCH TOO FORCEFUL GFS WITH TROUGHING
KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE MIDWEEK... WOULD SUGGEST BY WEDNESDAY THAT
EXTREME WARMTH FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS WOULD START TO NUDGE EASTWARD.
A GOODLY SUBSET OF SOLUTIONS WOULD MIX TO AT LEAST 100 FOR SOME
WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...FOR NOW WILL
PUSH TEMPS A GOOD 3-5 ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE WEST...AND WAIT FOR A
STRONGER CONSENSUS TO GO FURTHER. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 23/18Z. MODERATE CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP AT
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
ALBEIT SHALLOW...RICH MOISTURE ON LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAS
LED TO VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO NARROW A FEW
DEGREES FURTHER...WOULD EXPECT THIS LAYER TO EXPAND W-SWWD THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND RAP MAINLY
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WHERE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS SUCH
OCCURRENCES IN THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AHEAD CAN BE GLEANED BY RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH PAINTS A QUIET AND DRY PICTURE. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE THAT
HELPED SUPPORT YESTERDAY`S SCATTERED STORMS HAS SINCE SHIFTED
SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS
PART OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER ANTICYCLONE EDGING CLOSER FROM WRN NEW
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH PROGGED CIN VALUES ARE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THIS TIME ALONG WITH WARMING 700MB TEMPS ON SWLY WINDS SPELLS TOO
SMALL A CHANCE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...SO POPS REMAIN SILENT.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREDOMINANTLY S-SELY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED THIS WEEKEND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION AND BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDE INTO KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPOUNDING HOW WARM IT WILL
FEEL. CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL JUST A TAD SO IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK AND 100 TO 105 OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS GENERATE SOME FORM OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLIDE IT WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. CURRENT TRACKS KEEP ANY INFLUENCES ON THE WEATHER AND MAY
EVEN BRING SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 98 64 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 66 96 65 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 67 97 63 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 68 97 66 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 97 68 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 67 97 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 68 97 68 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 71 99 70 101 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 70 97 68 101 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 100 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
225 PM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle this evening
may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy rain. More
thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as low pressure
lingers over the region. This system will finally move out of the
Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier and more stable
weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Clearing over eastern WA and the Panhandle is allowing
temperatures to finally warm into the 80s. Coupled with the upper
40s to lower 50s dew points, the atmosphere should destabilize
rather nicely. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late this
afteroon. Convection has started to fire in the Clearwater Mtns,
similar to the HRRR forecast. Based on this I have a bit more
confidence in the HRRR, and so we`re looking at three potential
areas of convection.
The first is over the Clearwaters which should continue to fire
and propagate northward through the ID Panhandle this evening. The
second is forecast on the back end of the clouds moving into the
Okanogan Highlands. The convection would move northwest into the
north Cascades. The third area of convection would be over
northeast OR ahead of the main cloud band moving into the area
this evening. This convection would track along the ID/WA border
area this evening.
CAPE values are certainly supportive of moderate-sized hail. 0-6km
shear is good, but not great. Enough to keep the storms from being
pulse in nature but not sure there`s enough to make supercells.
Heavy rain is still possible in the Cascades. But since the storms
should be moving at a decent speed and this area hasn`t had a lot
of rain recently I`m thinking that the flash flood threat is
minimal. RJ
Saturday through Monday: Closed low will remain off the Oregon
coast through Monday. Models are in good agreement of pieces of
energy ejecting from the low and moving through the forecast area.
This will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. Saturday is the best day for more widespread showers
across the region. Instability parameters such as CAPE, LI and 0-6
km shear show very favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development Saturday. The best area of instability will stretch
up the Idaho Panhandle from Shoshone county north to the Canadian
border and bending back toward the northeast mountains of WA. Kept
the likely thunderstorm wording for the afternoon for these
locations and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Elsewhere,
slight chance exists across the basin, with a chance of thunder
along the Cascades and Spokane/Palouse, Okanogan areas. Sunday and
Monday there is still a threat of showers, but there is less
moisture to work with and the axis of instability is further east.
The best area of showers and thunderstorms will be across
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. With less moisture there is
also the possibility of less cloud cover, and with less cloud
cover, we could actually warm to near or slightly above average
temperatures. /Nisbet
Monday night through Friday: The persistent upper-low currently
off the WA coast will lift to the northeast through the region
bringing one last round of heavier precipitation before relatively
drier conditions settle in. Models are in decent agreement that
the low will lift E/NE through the area but still illustrate
subtle differences on timing, strength, and how much of its energy
pinches off and lingers over the region on Wed...yet they have come
into much better agreement then runs 24 hours ago. Following the
passage of the low pressure system, the general consensus amongst
the models is to strengthen a ridge of high pressure over the Pac
NW yielding mostly dry conditions for most locations. I use mostly
dry wording due to each model depicting several very small
midlevel impulses drifting under the ridge which could lead to
localized areas of deeper instability and chance for afternoon
showers/thunderstorms. We have utilized a blend of the EC/GFS for
the Monday night/Tuesday period and trend toward their ensemble
means thereafter.
This resulted in Monday night and Tuesday being the wettest days
of the period with models showing upwards of a quarter to three
quarters of an inch (heavier in thunderstorms) possible through
Tuesday night. The slower and more negatively tilted EC spreads
precipitation across all locations in this period while the quicker
GFS focuses more on the eastern third of WA and ID Panhandle...in
response to developing westerly flow in the lee of the Cascades.
The precipitation threat shifts toward the Canadian border for
Tuesday night and potentially into Wednesday afternoon (per slower
EC). By Wednesday night through Friday, upper-level ridging will
be the more dominate weather feature leading to a warming and
drying trend at most locations. As mentioned above, we will likely
be monitoring a few midlevel small-scale circulations each capable
of a introducing a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Given how
far out these events are and lack of QPF in the models, the
forecast indicates dry conditions based on the large scale
subsidence under the ridge but could may need to be adjusted over
small areas when and where these circulations track.
Temperatures will be cooling below normal on Wednesday with
abundant cloud cover and rainfall then begin a slow warming trend
each day returning near to above normal by Friday. SB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
and evening at most locations. These should gradually move
northward out of the area late tonight. Some storms could be strong
in the Panhandle and northeast Washington this evening. There will
be some IFR and Mtn obscuration conditions with these storms. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 74 53 75 50 79 / 90 70 60 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 57 73 53 76 50 80 / 90 80 70 20 10 10
Pullman 53 71 49 75 49 77 / 80 70 60 10 10 10
Lewiston 61 80 55 83 54 83 / 70 60 40 10 10 10
Colville 58 76 52 78 49 85 / 90 80 70 40 10 10
Sandpoint 55 73 52 73 48 79 / 90 90 80 40 20 20
Kellogg 54 71 50 77 48 79 / 90 80 70 40 20 20
Moses Lake 58 79 53 80 53 82 / 70 50 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 59 74 51 77 52 79 / 70 60 30 10 0 10
Omak 59 76 50 78 48 83 / 90 70 50 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1124 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today
through this evening. Some thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle
this evening may be capable of producing hail and locally heavy
rain. More thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday as
low pressure lingers over the region. This system will finally
move out of the Inland Northwest Tuesday night bringing a drier
and more stable weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
New HRRR model is now showing a fairly believable scenario.
Clearing skies are still moving northward and most of extreme
eastern WA and the Panhandle should be partly/mostly sunny by late
afternoon. This will allow atmosphere to destabilize. Meanwhile
the next cloud band is approaching from southwest Oregon, and this
could inhibit convection over the northeast Oregon Mtns. But the
Clearwater mountains should be clear long enough to initiate
convection late this afternoon.
As the dynamic lift from the offshore low rotates into our area late
this afternoon and evening this should help to initiate convection
over northeast OR and the northern Panhandle, similar to the latest
HRRR solution. This would start after 5pm and maybe even later.
This could be problematic for severe storms since we will be cooling
by then.
HRRR also shows convection this afternoon over Okanogan county.
Clearing over southeast WA is pushing northwestward and could allow
for convection in this area as well.
Will update forecast to reflect all of this for the next 18 hours. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
and evening at most locations. These should gradually move
northward out of the area late tonight. Some storms could be strong
in the Panhandle and northeast Washington this evening. There will
be some IFR and Mtn obscuration conditions with these storms. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 54 75 55 76 50 / 10 80 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 83 55 75 55 76 51 / 10 80 80 70 20 10
Pullman 79 51 72 52 74 48 / 10 80 70 60 20 10
Lewiston 84 59 80 58 82 57 / 20 70 60 50 20 10
Colville 85 56 79 54 80 50 / 20 90 80 70 40 20
Sandpoint 82 53 75 52 74 48 / 20 80 80 80 40 20
Kellogg 82 52 73 50 74 49 / 30 60 80 70 40 20
Moses Lake 84 56 76 57 80 53 / 10 70 50 40 10 10
Wenatchee 79 57 72 54 77 54 / 20 70 60 50 10 10
Omak 85 57 76 54 79 49 / 30 80 70 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AT 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WAS DIME SIZE HAIL
RECENTLY REPORTED IN GREEN BAY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF TAYLOR COUNTY...AND IT EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE 22.12Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MODERATE MOISTURE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE AREAS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN DRY. MEANWHILE OTHERS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS. DUE TO THIS...JUST KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH AND AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. LIKE
YESTERDAY...THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG 925 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS
STARTING IN THE EVENING...AND THEN TRANSITIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
BRINGING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPES INTO THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS ARE BIT LOWER /3 TO 4 KM/ THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM LOOKS TRANSITORY...SO THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAIN IN THE EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...BUT STILL WOULD LIKE TO SEE
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED WIND OR HAIL THREAT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IMPRESSIVELY CLIMB INTO THE
28 TO 30C RANGE. THIS IS 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE
CFS VERSION 2 IS RUNNING 3 TO 6C ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES. LAST
YEAR WHEN WE REACHED 100 DEGREES...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING AROUND 26C...SO IT SEEMS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS
THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FASTER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A
RESULT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY RUNNING BETWEEN 18 AND
22C. DUE TO THIS DIFFERENCE...JUST STAYED WITH THE CONSALL
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON
THEIR PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH NO CLEAR CONSENSUS...JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. DON/T SEE AN IMPACT AT KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS
VIA LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT A FEW SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
WI. WILL MONITOR BUT LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AN ELONGATED BAND OF LIGHT -SHRA
CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHERN IA...DRIVEN IN PART BY A NARROW
BAND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. MESO MODELS DIMINISH THIS LATER THIS
AFTER...WHILE ALSO KEEPING IT WEST.
LATER TONIGHT...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SD/NEB
REGION...TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST ON SAT. WILL GET SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN WHERE ITS PCPN THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY
MOVE. THINK THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS THOUGH THAT SHRA/TS FROM THE MCS
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CHANCES IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO
THE REGION. THE MORNING/AFTERNOON CHANCES COULD STAY SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE...WITH THE BETTER THREAT COMING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE UPDATE...SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TODAY PERIOD. SKY GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT REALITY AS CU
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA AS EVIDENT FROM VIS
SATELLITE...CU FIELD IS BECOMING SCT-BKN. TEMPS AND WINDS WERE
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. HOWEVER...HIGHS WERE LEFT ALONE
AS 925 HPA TEMPS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. CWA SHOULD SEE ADEQUATE
MIXING UP TO AND BEYOND 850 HPA AND WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT
LOWER-LEVELS...GAVE REASON TO NOT ADJUST THEM.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS WX AND POPS TODAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NW OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE NW QUADRANT. BOTH HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING PRECIP
MORE FOCUSED IN THE NE AND EAST CENTRAL WITH THE LOCAL WRF BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...WITH
INSTABILITY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG ML CAPE AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THE
THREAT SHOULD BE MORE TO OUR NORTH AND OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF MADISON. COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD BE DRY THEN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
KEEPING AN EYE ON SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR RICE LAKE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX...OTHERWISE FORECAST FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH STRONGER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN FAR
SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING SOUTHEAST ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS.
BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STREAK DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS STATE
TODAY...IS FOCUSED OVER NE WI BUT CLIPPING SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC
COUNTIES ON GFS...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON ON NAM.
002Z ECMWF SLIPS IT BY TO THE NORTH. VORT MAX TRACKING WITH THIS
UPPER DIVERGENCE BRINGS DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
MAX INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA BY 18Z.
DISMISSING THE OVERLY HIGH 2 METER MODEL DEW POINTS...AND WENT BELOW
EVEN THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE DEW POINTS BASED ON MIXED-DOWN VALUES
WHICH WILL AGAIN GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS -18C
500 MB TEMPS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST
CWA...MOVING OVER 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH APPROACHES THE
-20C/50F CONVECTIVE RULE OF THUMB...THOUGH ALL MODELS KEEP THE -18C
TO THE NE OF CWA.
THIS PRODUCES 700-800 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA ...WITH CAPE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPPED BY SUBSIDENCE WARMING THE 700-600MB LAYER.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST.
WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO NEAR 800 MB AGAIN TODAY...WENT HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST OF KETTLE MORAINE IN MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE IN FAR EAST WITH COMBINATION OF
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE...AND IN THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
DRY TONIGHT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NEB/SO DAKOTA
IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW...ENHANCED
BY A SHORT WAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. RESULTING MCS STAYS
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. FOLLOWED BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL UNDERGO A STEADY PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE
DAKOTAS...COINCIDENT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT
EVEN REACH MADISON ON SATURDAY.
THEN THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ GETS GOING SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE NOSE POINTING INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE GFS WASHES
OUT THE FEATURE WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE SURFACE PRECIP
PATTERN...SO DID NOT WEIGH THE FORECAST CHANCE HEAVILY BASED ON THE
GFS MODEL QPF. SO CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF MADISON BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESS EASTWARD BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE LLJ LEANS
OVER AND AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ INCREASES. THE STRONGEST
WAA SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS...AND THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO...AND THERE IS NOT A STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE
APPARENT IN THE MODELS...SO SOUTHERN WI COULD BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
THE TWO AREAS OF BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WI AND IT IS
HARD TO IGNORE THE STRONG WAA PATTERN. INCREASED THE CHANCES TO THE
HIGH-CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT DURING THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. KEPT SUN AFTERNOON POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLOWER GFS...HOWEVER
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
NORTH WINDS WILL RUSH DOWN THE LAKE AND EVENTUALLY INLAND SUN
EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AND
FRIDAY COULD BE THE NEXT HOT SPELL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
WITH THE WAA. THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE GFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH
ITS QPF. FORTUNATELY...THE TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCT TO BKN CU DECK IN THE 4-5K FT RANGE.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL STAYS TO THE NORTH OF TAF SITES.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE WILL TURN LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT MKE...RAC AND ENW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REACH UES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
244 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS WITH THE SPORADIC CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO A SEASONAL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SPANNING FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION HELD ON OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT WAS NOSING INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS JET STREAK WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH...DESPITE DECREASING INSTABILITY...THE SHOWERS LIKELY
HOLDING ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF THE JET STREAK.
DESPITE THIS JET STREAK MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATER
TODAY...ANOTHER FORM OF LIFT WILL COME IN BEHIND IT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION NEAR
WINNIPEG THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE 22.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL COME LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST AND MID
LEVEL WARMING KICKS IN. 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR IS MODEST BUT DECENT
ENOUGH AT ABOUT 40KTS THAT A STRAY ORGANIZED STORM COULD PUT DOWN
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WHEN SBCAPE RISES UP TO AROUND
1000J/KG LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
IN TONIGHT AND WILL END ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WHILE A BROAD
SURFACE LOW SITS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THE STRONGEST
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE WEST INTO
THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN GRADIENT OF THE TRANSPORT
PUSHES INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL END UP BEING ANY CONVECTION THAT
OCCURS OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THIS TRANSPORT SHIFTS EAST. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS...SUCH AS THE
22.00Z NSSL WRF...ARE A BIT FASTER WITH BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION
IN THAN WHAT THE 22.00Z NAM/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW FOR TONIGHT.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THERE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT VERY HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO SATURDAY...SO
AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THIS WAVE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE JUST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS THIS FEATURE COMES THROUGH IF WE GET SPLIT BY AN MCS
RUNNING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ITS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
OVERNIGHT AND 0-3KM MUCAPE REACHES THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6KM WIND
SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AN MCS WITH ABOUT 40-60 KTS OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL 3-6KM WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD
HELP TO MAKE THIS COMPLEX DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ. AFTER THIS MCS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND BRING A DRY
END TO THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
244 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING
UP ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH THE CORE OF A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID-WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM IT
GOING ACROSS IOWA. SOME LOW CHANCES EXIST THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
NORTH OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEK ONCE WINDS COME BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. DON/T SEE AN IMPACT AT KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS
VIA LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT A FEW SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
WI. WILL MONITOR BUT LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AN ELONGATED BAND OF LIGHT -SHRA
CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHERN IA...DRIVEN IN PART BY A NARROW
BAND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. MESO MODELS DIMINISH THIS LATER THIS
AFTER...WHILE ALSO KEEPING IT WEST.
LATER TONIGHT...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SD/NEB
REGION...TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST ON SAT. WILL GET SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN WHERE ITS PCPN THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY
MOVE. THINK THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS THOUGH THAT SHRA/TS FROM THE MCS
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CHANCES IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO
THE REGION. THE MORNING/AFTERNOON CHANCES COULD STAY SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE...WITH THE BETTER THREAT COMING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
244 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK