Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/21/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...CLOUDS REFORMING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT. THEREFORE USED THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT FASTER DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...PUSHED THE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH
INTO MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK BASED ON CURRENT CLOUDS.
SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN A LITTLE EARLIER AND MORE
EXTENSIVELY...TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHTS A LITTLE UPWARD SINCE THE
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT WHATEVER HEAT FROM ESCAPING. ALSO...WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS BEGUN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
MEANWHILE...ONE MCS LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT
EITHER WAY WILL COMPLETELY MISS OUR REGION BY DIVING WAY SOUTH OF
IT.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS
MICHIGAN...THAT LOOKS TO TRACK MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMPLEX WAS
ALSO MOVING INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR...BUT ALSO IS MOVING INTO A
REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS COMPLEX GETTING
TO OUR DOORSTEP BY AROUND 600 AM...IN MUCH WEAKEN FORM. OUR GRIDS
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE BY 700 AM SO NEED TO CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...PARTLY CLOUDY FAR
NORTH. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 15 MPH LOCALLY AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE A
REDUCTION IN WIND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 IN MOST
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW OR MID 80S. STILL SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...SO HIGHS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION AND SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THEY WILL ALSO BRING THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE
SEASON TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY A VERY WARM AIR MASS ON
THURSDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES C...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS. THE ONE THING
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING RECORD TERRITORY /THE RECORD FOR
ALBANY FOR THURSDAY JUNE 21ST IS 97 FROM 1938/ IS THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUDS AROUND FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH OF A STRONG SW FLOW TO DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS TO REALLY GET TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S. WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...WE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POPS FOR THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS SHOWS THE
ACTIVITY TO BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AND NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED...SO WILL
ONLY KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...WE
WILL MENTION THUNDER...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. WE WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER AS SOME DRIER
AIR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH VALUES 10-16 DEGREES C. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WED/THURS. MOST AREAS
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S.
FINALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH JUST
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS A WARM FRONT FROM A
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HINTED THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD CUT OFF OVER THE REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE FOR MONDAY AS WELL.
WITH THE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP AND LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUN/MON...WITH
GENERALLY 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTANCE USED FOR TAF BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM PAST 2 NIGHTS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL TAF SITES BY 10Z WITH KPSF GOING TO
IFR. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ALL SITES BY 18Z. SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AN VARIABLE MODAY EVENING.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MIGHT SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH (<25
PERCENT) TO NOT EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE AFTN AND AT NIGHT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA KALB/KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA AT
KPOU/KPSF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL RECOVERY TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100
PERCENT. MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 PERCENT...THEN RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 18...97 SET IN 1957
JUNE 19...94 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20...97 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 18...93 SET IN 1994
JUNE 19...97 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20...94 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 18...93 SET IN 1957
JUNE 19...91 SET IN 1957
JUNE 20...95 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
CLIMATE...IAA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1050 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD BUT THE OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN BLUE DOME AND
DUBOIS ARE STILL GUSTING UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AND THE RAPID UP DATE
MODEL FAVORS A COUPLE MORE HOURS YET BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DROPS OFF. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO 1 AM. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
UPDATE...A VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
ARCO DESERT AND FOOTHILLS LEADING INTO DUBOIS AND ASHTON AREA THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN WAS EXPIRED IN FAVOR OF KEEPING A WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT. RS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST PER WV SAT IMAGERY. CU FIELD SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WEAK STRATOCU FIELD HAS
PUSHED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS TODAY WHICH HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL MIXING. THUS
THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS
THE ARCO DESERT HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY.
WINDS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WARNED AREA SHOULD INCREASE AS CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. HRRR MODEL INDICATES PEAK SPEEDS OCCURING BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWIFT DROPOFF DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
TROUGH AXIS KICKS PAST EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING BUT LEAVES BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PACNW. SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH TROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT JET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH SO WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN. LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY BUT WILL LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS AFTER CURRENT WIND EVENT
IS OVER.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF PACNW COAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS CENTER
OF UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND...LEAVING
EASTERN IDAHO ON THE FRINGE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH
DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED RANGE. OVERALL MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST. DMH
AVIATION...THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE LATE
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. ANY REAL THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MONTANA
AND WYOMING BORDERS. KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO MONTANA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOSER TO
THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN JUST THE
MONTANA BORDER TUESDAY. THE STORY IS THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE WINDS
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF ZONES 409/410/411/412 ARE STILL
VALID THROUGH 9PM. WE WILL LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW BUT NO
RED FLAG ISSUES AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP DESPITE GUSTY WINDS.
MIDWEEK WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WE WILL
SEE RAPID DRYING EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO EXPECT POOR
NIGHTTIME RECOVERY AT RIDGETOP. WHILE MORE PRECISE DETAILS ON WHERE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FORMING BY THE WEEKEND...IT
DOES APPEAR A DISTINCT PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHWEST/MONSOON FLOW
IS COMING. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MDT TUESDAY BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE
IDZ019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MDT TUESDAY IDZ020.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
637 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WEAK IMPULSE SHEARS APART AS IT RIDES THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE. NEAR TERM MODELS (HRRR/RUC) INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE TO ISOLATED POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND STRATUS.
ATTM, NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED W/THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SB CAPES OF 700+ JOULES
W/MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MBS ACROSS THE FAR W AND N BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND EVENING APCHS, THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO
850MBS AND BELOW AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE LLVLS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO 6.0 C/KM AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL FORCING INITIALLY BUT THAT IS GONE
BY 06Z AS THE FRONT APCHS. ATTM, DECIDED ON ISOLD TSTMS AND KEPT
POPS NO MORE THAN 40% ACROSS THE FAR N AND W FOR SHOWERS.
SKY COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS S FLOW INITIALLY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE MLT AND HUL REGIONS. FURTHER N AND W, WIND
VEERING MORE SW OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS.
FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AND DECIDED
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THERE FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND
W, KEPT FOG OUT DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP FOR ONE AND DIRECTION
MORE WSW BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SMALL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE DIVIDING WARM
AIR TO THE NORTH FROM HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME MOISTURE WILL CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST AREAS JUST ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE DURING THE MIDDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL LOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST. A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING
TROF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY. THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM GOING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHC FOR IFR WILL BE FROM HUL ON
SOUTH TO BGR AND BHB. CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY
W/BGR AND BHB TAKING A WHILE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IN COASTAL FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY LINGER FOR
A WHILE EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: KEPT THE MENTION OF THE SWELL IN THE FCST TONIGHT AS A
8-9 SECOND PERIOD IS OCCURRING ATTM. THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SWAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEAS REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT
W/THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. DECISION WAS TO BRING SEAS UP A FOOT W/A
RANGE OF 3-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATER
WEDNESDAY AS REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS GO OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM A SMALL SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN SEAS NEAR 5 FT EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOSTER/HEWITT
MARINE...FOSTER/HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND STRATUS.
ATTM, NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED W/THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SB CAPES OF 700+ JOULES
W/MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MBS ACROSS THE FAR W AND N BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND EVENING APCHS, THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO
850MBS AND BELOW AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE LLVLS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO 6.0 C/KM AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL FORCING INITIALLY BUT THAT IS GONE
BY 06Z AS THE FRONT APCHS. ATTM, DECIDED ON ISOLD TSTMS AND KEPT
POPS NO MORE THAN 40% ACROSS THE FAR N AND W FOR SHOWERS.
SKY COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS S FLOW INITIALLY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE MLT AND HUL REGIONS. FURTHER N AND W, WIND
VEERING MORE SW OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS.
FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AND DECIDED
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THERE FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND
W, KEPT FOG OUT DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP FOR ONE AND DIRECTION
MORE WSW BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SMALL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE DIVIDING WARM
AIR TO THE NORTH FROM HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME MOISTURE WILL CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST AREAS JUST ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE DURING THE MIDDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL LOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST. A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING
TROF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY. THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM GOING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHC FOR IFR WILL BE FROM HUL ON
SOUTH TO BGR AND BHB. CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY
W/BGR AND BHB TAKING A WHILE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IN COASTAL FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY LINGER FOR
A WHILE EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: KEPT THE MENTION OF THE SWELL IN THE FCST TONIGHT AS A
8-9 SECOND PERIOD IS OCCURRING ATTM. THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SWAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEAS REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT
W/THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. DECISION WAS TO BRING SEAS UP A FOOT W/A
RANGE OF 3-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATER
WEDNESDAY AS REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS GO OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM A SMALL SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN SEAS NEAR 5 FT EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRINGING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, RETURNING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES AT MID MORNING ARE TO LOWER SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
RIDGES AS CLOUDS SEEN WELL BANKED EAST OF THE LAURELS. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE
RIDGES...STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH THE HRRR THE ONLY HIGH-RES MODEL TO
DEPICT THIS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE LATEST MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS SLIDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE AREA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN MCS
THAT DIED IN MICHIGAN IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASED
CLOUDINESS. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FOLLOWS THIS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND IS ADVECTING ACROSS MICHIGAN TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE 500MB ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS OHIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SCHC POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
19-20C TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOWLAND AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME HITTING THE
90S THIS MONTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TODAY, THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A MUGGY DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH IS 100-104F. WITH THE WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RIDGE IN PLACE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS AT 20-21C WILL YIELD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING
INTO THE MID 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY WARM CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THUS THERE IS A MENTION OF HEAT IN THE HWO.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE DAY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
MOSTLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT, DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. AT THIS
TIME...ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN A NW TRAJECTORY ALOFT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT YIELDS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS AT MID LEVEL SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PCPN WITH THIS FRONT
THAN ITS PREDECESSOR FRI. CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AS TIMING ISSUES AT DAY 6 CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
PROBABILITY.
H5 ANTICYCLONE CRANKS BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THUS
PERSISTING WITH NW WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE SIGNALS
OF AN TSTM COMPLEXES / MCS PARADE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER DURING THE WEEK.
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FROM MOSGUIDE WHERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HUMID SURFACE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL BRING PERIODS OF FOG AND HAZE
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE VFR ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED CUMULUS. SFC WND WL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 5 KTS,
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE VFR THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING HAZE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POSTFRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
740 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MID-WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
RETURNING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 730AM UPDATE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE RIDGES...STILL DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR...WITH THE HRRR THE ONLY HIGH-RES MODEL TO DEPICT THIS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE LATEST MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS SLIDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE AREA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN MCS
THAT DIED IN MICHIGAN IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASED
CLOUDINESS. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FOLLOWS THIS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND IS ADVECTING ACROSS MICHIGAN TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE 500MB ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS OHIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SCHC POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
19-20C TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOWLAND AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME HITTING THE
90S THIS MONTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TODAY, THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A MUGGY DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH IS 100-104F. WITH THE WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RIDGE IN PLACE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS AT 20-21C WILL YIELD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING
INTO THE MID 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY WARM CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THUS THERE IS A MENTION OF HEAT IN THE HWO.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE DAY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
MOSTLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT, DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. AT THIS
TIME...ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN A NW TRAJECTORY ALOFT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT YIELDS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS AT MID LEVEL SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PCPN WITH THIS FRONT
THAN ITS PREDECESSOR FRI. CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AS TIMING ISSUES AT DAY 6 CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
PROBABILITY.
H5 ANTICYCLONE CRANKS BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THUS
PERSISTING WITH NW WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE SIGNALS
OF AN TSTM COMPLEXES / MCS PARADE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER DURING THE WEEK.
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FROM MOSGUIDE WHERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HUMID SURFACE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL BRING PERIODS OF FOG AND HAZE
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE VFR ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED CUMULUS. SFC WND WL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 5 KTS,
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE VFR THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING HAZE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POSTFRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THEN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD JUST MISS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
NOON SO I PUT AN 18 PCT POP THERE FOR 3 HOURS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THERE IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WILL
BE THE HEAT THROUGH WED...AND THEN CONVECTION CHANCES AND SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL FOR WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS THAT LAID OUT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LAST EVENING IS
NOW DIMINISHING AS THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE TROUGH COMING OUT FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO CAP ANY THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THIS CAPPING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WE WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPS UP THROUGH 15K FEET PER FCST SOUNDINGS. H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 21C WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID 90S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. WE SHOULD END
UP A LITTLE SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH TODAY AND WED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN CHCS MOVE IN NOW UNTIL WED EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST PER THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW IN PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE JET
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH DURING THE TIME OF THE MIN DIURNAL INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED AND ELEVATED LI/S WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. WE EXPECT THAT SOME CONVECTION FROM WED AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA THU
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE
ANY GOOD INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED. THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE SE OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER THAT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THANKS TO A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.
THIS IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SOME TIME NOW. A
BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS SOUTHERN GREENLAND BY THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT FORCES THE UPPER LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER JAMES BAY TO STALL THERE BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS THE BLOCKING HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH STALLED UPPER LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY THAT WILL BRING THE PERSISTENT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRI THROUGH MONDAY (AND BEYOND).
A DIGGING JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM COMES IN PHASE
WITH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO FORCE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM
PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE COUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
300 MB JET SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE NEARLY SOLID SO I DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A THREAT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RULES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ON MONDAY SO
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SSW
WINDS OF 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THEN PICK UP AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE WED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 KNOT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THUS HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUT ON THE LAKE. SOME QUESTION EXISTS
AS TO HOW LONG THE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE DATA THIS AFTERNOON...MAY NEED TO FEATURE A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO PERIODS OF RAINFALL TODAY RANGED FROM
NOTHING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA...TO LOCALLY AROUND TWO
INCHES UP NORTH. OTHER THAN STANDING WATER AT THE TIME OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...THIS RAIN WAS WELCOME TO THE AREA WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UP NORTH...BUT THE GROUND
WILL LIKELY ABSORB MOST OF IT.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE A NARROW
RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS UP TO TWO INCHES. THE NARROW APPEARANCE OF THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT INDICATES
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LOW WED NIGHT/THU.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-
043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
116 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL MS VALLEY RESULTING IN WSW
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE
PATTERN TO AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW DIGS TO THE
SE AND A SHRTWV OVER MT LIFTS INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER N CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN MN. AN
MCS FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MN AND FAR WRN WI WAS FUELED BY A
40-50 KT LLJ PROVIDING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE 850 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
DRYING MID LEVELS...AREA OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT WHERE MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TODAY...THE FOG WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE MAINLY TO THE EAST INTO CNTRL AND NRN WI.
HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH...SOME SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO W AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BY
LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TSRA WITH SMALL HAIL IF THE CONVECTION AS THE
CONVECTION OVER WI WEAKENS AND GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS
INTO UPPER MI. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING AS
FAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THINNING CLOUDS FROM S TO N BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
INLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MN OR NRN WI DURING
PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO THE AREA. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...CAPPING WILL LIMIT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE 850 MB FRONT AND FORCING FROM ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE
FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW NEARS FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER MN/S ONTARIO/W LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF HOLDING ONTO A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOVERING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 06Z NAM NOW BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
/ECMWF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY SLIDING INTO CANADA/...TO A HALF IN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH /GFS WITH A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH/. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY GREAT ASSUMPTIONS YET...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIALLY
ABOUT 3HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO SPEED UP OFF THE
ECMWF...SO THAT THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE BEING E OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1K
J/KG...MLLAPSE RATES 6-8C/CM /HIGHEST SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON/.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE AND RESIDE OVER N ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ROTATING LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY. MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY UP TO
800MB/ COULD SPELL RH VALUES NEAR 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS OR GREATER OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. THE COOLEST AIR AT 850MB WILL BE FROM 00-18Z
FRIDAY...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SLIDE IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRIEFLY PUSH A RIDGE
THROUGH UPPER MI THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES IN
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN AT 500MB THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE BE THE RULE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER N/C WI...WILL BE
SATURDAY...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LVL WAVE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER SD/NE AND ANOTHER OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END. DRY WX/VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LLWS UNDER
STRENGTHENING SW LLJ AT CMX OVERNIGHT. NEXT WAVE COMES IN FOR WED
MORNING AND PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP INTO IWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PCPN
BREAKING OUT WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL QUEBEC...THROUGH
LS...TO SD WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. THE SD LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS W LS AND
MN THIS EVENING...BEFORE MAKING IT TO N CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS E LS. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLIDE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1232 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THEN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONIN SHOULD JUST MISS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
NOON SO I PUT AN 18 PCT POP THERE FOR 3 HOURS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THERE IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WILL
BE THE HEAT THROUGH WED...AND THEN CONVECTION CHANCES AND SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL FOR WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS THAT LAID OUT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LAST EVENING IS
NOW DIMINISHING AS THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE TROUGH COMING OUT FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO CAP ANY THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THIS CAPPING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WE WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPS UP THROUGH 15K FEET PER FCST SOUNDINGS. H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 21C WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID 90S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. WE SHOULD END
UP A LITTLE SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH TODAY AND WED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN CHCS MOVE IN NOW UNTIL WED EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST PER THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW IN PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE JET
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH DURING THE TIME OF THE MIN DIURNAL INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED AND ELEVATED LI/S WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. WE EXPECT THAT SOME CONVECTION FROM WED AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA THU
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE
ANY GOOD INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED. THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE SE OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER THAT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THANKS TO A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.
THIS IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SOME TIME NOW. A
BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS SOUTHERN GREENLAND BY THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT FORCES THE UPPER LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER JAMES BAY TO STALL THERE BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS THE BLOCKING HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH STALLED UPPER LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY THAT WILL BRING THE PERSISTENT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRI THROUGH MONDAY (AND BEYOND).
A DIGGING JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM COMES IN PHASE
WITH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO FORCE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM
PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE COUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
300 MB JET SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE NEARLY SOLID SO I DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A THREAT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RULES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ON MONDAY SO
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
ASIDE FROM IT BEING A TOUCH ON THE BREEZE SIDE TODAY... NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. I STILL BELIVE THE
CONVECTION TODAY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON AT 7 AM.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 KNOT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THUS HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUT ON THE LAKE. SOME QUESTION EXISTS
AS TO HOW LONG THE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE DATA THIS AFTERNOON...MAY NEED TO FEATURE A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO PERIODS OF RAINFALL TODAY RANGED FROM
NOTHING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA...TO LOCALLY AROUND TWO
INCHES UP NORTH. OTHER THAN STANDING WATER AT THE TIME OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...THIS RAIN WAS WELCOME TO THE AREA WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UP NORTH...BUT THE GROUND
WILL LIKELY ABSORB MOST OF IT.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE A NARROW
RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS UP TO TWO INCHES. THE NARROW APPEARANCE OF THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT INDICATES
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LOW WED NIGHT/THU.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-
043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THEN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONIN SHOULD JUST MISS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
NOON SO I PUT AN 18 PCT POP THERE FOR 3 HOURS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THERE IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WILL
BE THE HEAT THROUGH WED...AND THEN CONVECTION CHANCES AND SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL FOR WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS THAT LAID OUT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LAST EVENING IS
NOW DIMINISHING AS THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE TROUGH COMING OUT FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO CAP ANY THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THIS CAPPING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WE WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPS UP THROUGH 15K FEET PER FCST SOUNDINGS. H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 21C WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID 90S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. WE SHOULD END
UP A LITTLE SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH TODAY AND WED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN CHCS MOVE IN NOW UNTIL WED EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST PER THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW IN PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE JET
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH DURING THE TIME OF THE MIN DIURNAL INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED AND ELEVATED LI/S WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. WE EXPECT THAT SOME CONVECTION FROM WED AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA THU
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE
ANY GOOD INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED. THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE SE OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER THAT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THANKS TO A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.
THIS IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SOME TIME NOW. A
BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS SOUTHERN GREENLAND BY THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT FORCES THE UPPER LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER JAMES BAY TO STALL THERE BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS THE BLOCKING HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH STALLED UPPER LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY THAT WILL BRING THE PERSISTENT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRI THROUGH MONDAY (AND BEYOND).
A DIGGING JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM COMES IN PHASE
WITH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO FORCE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM
PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE COUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
300 MB JET SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE NEARLY SOLID SO I DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A THREAT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RULES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ON MONDAY SO
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
ASIDE FROM IT BEING A TOUCH ON THE BREEZE SIDE TODAY... NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. I STILL BELIVE THE
CONVECTION TODAY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON AT 7 AM.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS
HAVE RELAXED SOME OVERNIGHT WITH A LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
WATERS. WE EXPECT THAT SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN...AND
WE WILL SEE CONDITIONS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN. STRONG S/SW FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS WITH HIGH WAVES...LONGSHORE
CURRENTS...AND STRUCTURAL CURRENTS ONCE AGAIN. WE COULD SEE WINDS
REMAIN UP ALONG THE SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO PERIODS OF RAINFALL TODAY RANGED FROM
NOTHING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA...TO LOCALLY AROUND TWO
INCHES UP NORTH. OTHER THAN STANDING WATER AT THE TIME OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...THIS RAIN WAS WELCOME TO THE AREA WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UP NORTH...BUT THE GROUND
WILL LIKELY ABSORB MOST OF IT.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE A NARROW
RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS UP TO TWO INCHES. THE NARROW APPEARANCE OF THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT INDICATES
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LOW WED NIGHT/THU.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL MS VALLEY RESULTING IN WSW
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE
PATTERN TO AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW DIGS TO THE
SE AND A SHRTWV OVER MT LIFTS INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER N CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN MN. AN
MCS FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MN AND FAR WRN WI WAS FUELED BY A
40-50 KT LLJ PROVIDING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE 850 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
DRYING MID LEVELS...AREA OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT WHERE MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TODAY...THE FOG WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE MAINLY TO THE EAST INTO CNTRL AND NRN WI.
HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH...SOME SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO W AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BY
LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TSRA WITH SMALL HAIL IF THE CONVECTION AS THE
CONVECTION OVER WI WEAKENS AND GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS
INTO UPPER MI. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING AS
FAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THINNING CLOUDS FROM S TO N BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
INLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MN OR NRN WI DURING
PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO THE AREA. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...CAPPING WILL LIMIT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE 850 MB FRONT AND FORCING FROM ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE
FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW NEARS FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER MN/S ONTARIO/W LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF HOLDING ONTO A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOVERING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 06Z NAM NOW BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
/ECMWF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY SLIDING INTO CANADA/...TO A HALF IN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH /GFS WITH A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH/. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY GREAT ASSUMPTIONS YET...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIALLY
ABOUT 3HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO SPEED UP OFF THE
ECMWF...SO THAT THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE BEING E OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1K
J/KG...MLLAPSE RATES 6-8C/CM /HIGHEST SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON/.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE AND RESIDE OVER N ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ROTATING LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY. MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY UP TO
800MB/ COULD SPELL RH VALUES NEAR 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS OR GREATER OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. THE COOLEST AIR AT 850MB WILL BE FROM 00-18Z
FRIDAY...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SLIDE IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRIEFLY PUSH A RIDGE
THROUGH UPPER MI THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES IN
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN AT 500MB THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE BE THE RULE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER N/C WI...WILL BE
SATURDAY...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LVL WAVE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER SD/NE AND ANOTHER OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
EXPECT DRY WX THRU THIS MORNING UNDER DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT SINCE
LLVL MSTR WL BE LINGERING AT SAW...FOG/ST AND IRF CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT THAT LOCATION THRU SUNRISE UNTIL THE ADVENT OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT A WARM FNT MOVING S-N THROUGH THE AREA TO BRING SOME
SCT -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ON TUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AT CMX/IWD
CLOSER TO DISTURBANCE SWINGING NEWD THRU MN. BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT CMX WITH UPSLOPE ESE WIND AHEAD
OF THE SFC WARM FNT. INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF SCT LO CLDS ATTM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. ONCE THE WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N OF UPR
MI TNGT...EXPECT A RETURN OF DRY WX/VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LLWS
UNDER STRENGTHENING SW LLJ AT SAW/CMX...WHICH WL BE LESS EXPOSED TO
THE SSW FLOW THAN IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL QUEBEC...THROUGH
LS...TO SD WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. THE SD LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS W LS AND
MN THIS EVENING...BEFORE MAKING IT TO N CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS E LS. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLIDE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
503 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL MS VALLEY RESULTING IN WSW
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE
PATTERN TO AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW DIGS TO THE
SE AND A SHRTWV OVER MT LIFTS INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER N CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN MN. AN
MCS FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MN AND FAR WRN WI WAS FUELED BY A
40-50 KT LLJ PROVIDING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE 850 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
DRYING MID LEVELS...AREA OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT WHERE MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TODAY...THE FOG WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE MAINLY TO THE EAST INTO CNTRL AND NRN WI.
HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH...SOME SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO W AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BY
LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TSRA WITH SMALL HAIL IF THE CONVECTION AS THE
CONVECTION OVER WI WEAKENS AND GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS
INTO UPPER MI. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING AS
FAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THINNING CLOUDS FROM S TO N BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
INLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. ERLY WINDS NORTH WILL KEEP
READINGS LOWER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...CAPPING WILL LIMIT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE 850 MB FRONT AND FORCING FROM ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE
FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW NEARS FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER MN/S ONTARIO/W LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF HOLDING ONTO A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOVERING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 06Z NAM NOW BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
/ECMWF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY SLIDING INTO CANADA/...TO A HALF IN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH /GFS WITH A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH/. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY GREAT ASSUMPTIONS YET...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIALLY
ABOUT 3HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO SPEED UP OFF THE
ECMWF...SO THAT THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE BEING E OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1K
J/KG...MLLAPSE RATES 6-8C/CM /HIGHEST SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON/.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE AND RESIDE OVER N ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ROTATING LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY. MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY UP TO
800MB/ COULD SPELL RH VALUES NEAR 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS OR GREATER OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. THE COOLEST AIR AT 850MB WILL BE FROM 00-18Z
FRIDAY...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SLIDE IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRIEFLY PUSH A RIDGE
THROUGH UPPER MI THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES IN
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN AT 500MB THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE BE THE RULE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER N/C WI...WILL BE
SATURDAY...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LVL WAVE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER SD/NE AND ANOTHER OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
EXPECT DRY WX THRU THIS MORNING UNDER DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT SINCE
LLVL MSTR WL BE LINGERING AT SAW...FOG/ST AND IRF CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT THAT LOCATION THRU SUNRISE UNTIL THE ADVENT OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT A WARM FNT MOVING S-N THROUGH THE AREA TO BRING SOME
SCT -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ON TUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AT CMX/IWD
CLOSER TO DISTURBANCE SWINGING NEWD THRU MN. BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT CMX WITH UPSLOPE ESE WIND AHEAD
OF THE SFC WARM FNT. INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF SCT LO CLDS ATTM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. ONCE THE WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N OF UPR
MI TNGT...EXPECT A RETURN OF DRY WX/VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LLWS
UNDER STRENGTHENING SW LLJ AT SAW/CMX...WHICH WL BE LESS EXPOSED TO
THE SSW FLOW THAN IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL QUEBEC...THROUGH
LS...TO SD WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. THE SD LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS W LS AND
MN THIS EVENING...BEFORE MAKING IT TO N CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS E LS. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLIDE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT NOT HARD TO FIND AT 11 AM EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW SOUTH OF CHAMBERLAIN...SD EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE FRONT COMES INTO THE STATE JUST NORTH OF PIPESTONE
AND EXTENDS EAST THROUGH MANKATO AND OVER INTO THE LA CROSSE AREA.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS
SE NODAK INTO NORTHERN MN AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES UP INTO THE
STATE. AT H7...THE +12C ISOTHERM AND ASSOCIATED CAP IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO I-94 AND IS ON ITS WAY NORTH. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON THE RAP...HRRR...AND 12Z GEM IS
THAT BY 21Z...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A GRANITE FALLS...TO ST.
CLOUD...TO MORA LINE. GIVEN CONVECTION OVER NRN MN...FEEL 12Z
GFS/NAM PUSH THE FRONT TOO FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR SEVERE THREAT...VERY WARM EML WILL KEEP A LID ON THINGS
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z OVER THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEGINNING TO COOL BY 00Z AND EXPECT THE CAP TO BE
ERODED ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH INITIATION LIKELY IN THE 22Z TO 00Z WINDOW. BY
THEN...MLCAPE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
J/KG...AND STRONGLY BACKED WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR 21Z AND
00Z ON THE RAP EXCEED 90 PERCENT. IF REALITY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES END UP ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT THE RAP HAS...WOULD EXPECT SOME
TORNADIC ACTIVITY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS
SHOULD GROW UP-SCALE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO A LINE...WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD THING TO HAVE...AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL REALLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
FULLY EXPECTED TRAINING OF CELLS TONIGHT. IN FACT...CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM/GEM/SREF IS THAT ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST OF A FAIRMONT/TWIN CITIES/SIREN...WI
LINE...OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST MN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL PARAMETERS IN PLACE LATER TODAY THAT
SUPPORT ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DECIDED TO FOCUS MORE
ON LATER TODAY THAN THE PRESENT WEATHER. THE CONDITIONAL THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP CAN
HOLD...AND HOW MUCH DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY OVERLAID
WITH RAP40 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED THE UPCOMING WEATHER
MAKER IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED E/W ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS THE METRO AND NEW RICHMOND WI...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70 WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE CAPE GRADIENT WAS RIGHT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT. AN MCS WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHOSE OUTFLOW
WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO WISCONSIN WHILE BEING FUELED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE
REGION...CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 3000J/KG OF SBCAPE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THESE LARGE CAPE VALUES DON/T COME WITHOUT A CATCH. THE
CATCH IS THAT 700MB TEMPS +10 TO +12C BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS IT DOES SO...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25G35KTS.
FORECAST SOUNDING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT SHOW BOTH INCREDIBLE SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE FRONT AND NOT REALIZE THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...BUT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH
MID LEVEL COOLING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION. STORMS WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS DISCRETE CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX
AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND/HAIL THREAT. STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME ELEVATED AT THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT COULD STILL POSE A HAIL/WIND THREAT.
FINALLY...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...NOT TO
MENTION THE ONGOING MCS...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY HEAVY RAIN
WILL POSE A FLOOD THREAT. ESPECIALLY IN THE SENSITIVE CANNON RIVER
BASIN. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CDFNT BETWEEN SFC LOWS
CENTERED OVER SE MANITOBA AND WRN KANSAS WILL GAIN IMPETUS TO PUSH
E AS A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS
BY LATE MRNG WED. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HIGHLY
CONCENTRATED LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF RAINFALL ACRS MUCH
OF THE MPX CWFA. MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE
RAINFALL FCST FOR WED BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY EASILY
PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
SEVERE WX PROSPECTS ARE QUITE LOW SINCE THE BULK OF THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FRONT...WORKING WITH LITTLE
INSOLATION BEFORE THE FROPA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH GREATLY WED
NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE W...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRIER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES EXPANDING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH THE COLD FROPA...WITH HIGHS BUMPED BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S AND
LOWS INTO THE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG RAIN-MAKER FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MEANDERING OVER THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST THU WILL BE NUDGED OVER THE ROCKIES THU INTO FRI
AS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THIS SFC LOW
WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FRI AND SHIFT
E INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUN MRNG. NOT A HUGE PUNCH OF
WARMER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR SUPPRESSED TO THE S...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL BE NUDGED INTO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-60S. THE BEST CHCS FOR
PRECIP COMES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN DRIER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL WARM
BUBBLE LIFTS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN MN. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 500 PM AND 700 PM OVER
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SKIES
HAD CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR...WITH LVFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSENING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRACUMULUS CLOUDS(1500-2500
FEET AGL) DEVELOPING OVER THE ALL OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 700 PM THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF KMSP THIS
EVENING...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET AGL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH 15-20 KNOTS WITH OCNL HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 MPH LATER TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK/
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR...WINDS NW AT 10KT
FRIDAY...VFR...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RENVILLE-
STEARNS-SWIFT-TODD.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PIERCE-POLK-
ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
MPG/JPC/JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.UPDATED WITH MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT NOT HARD TO FIND AT 11 AM EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW SOUTH OF CHAMBERLAIN...SD EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE FRONT COMES INTO THE STATE JUST NORTH OF PIPESTONE
AND EXTENDS EAST THROUGH MANKATO AND OVER INTO THE LA CROSSE AREA.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS
SE NODAK INTO NORTHERN MN AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES UP INTO THE
STATE. AT H7...THE +12C ISOTHERM AND ASSOCIATED CAP IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO I-94 AND IS ON ITS WAY NORTH. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON THE RAP...HRRR...AND 12Z GEM IS
THAT BY 21Z...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A GRANITE FALLS...TO ST.
CLOUD...TO MORA LINE. GIVEN CONVECTION OVER NRN MN...FEEL 12Z
GFS/NAM PUSH THE FRONT TOO FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR SEVERE THREAT...VERY WARM EML WILL KEEP A LID ON THINGS
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z OVER THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEGINNING TO COOL BY 00Z AND EXPECT THE CAP TO BE
ERODED ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH INITIATION LIKELY IN THE 22Z TO 00Z WINDOW. BY
THEN...MLCAPE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
J/KG...AND STRONGLY BACKED WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR 21Z AND
00Z ON THE RAP EXCEED 90 PERCENT. IF REALITY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES END UP ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT THE RAP HAS...WOULD EXPECT SOME
TORNADIC ACTIVITY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS
SHOULD GROW UP-SCALE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO A LINE...WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD THING TO HAVE...AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL REALLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
FULLY EXPECTED TRAINING OF CELLS TONIGHT. IN FACT...CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM/GEM/SREF IS THAT ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST OF A FAIRMONT/TWIN CITIES/SIREN...WI
LINE...OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST MN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL PARAMETERS IN PLACE LATER TODAY THAT
SUPPORT ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DECIDED TO FOCUS MORE
ON LATER TODAY THAN THE PRESENT WEATHER. THE CONDITIONAL THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP CAN
HOLD...AND HOW MUCH DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY OVERLAID
WITH RAP40 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED THE UPCOMING WEATHER
MAKER IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED E/W ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS THE METRO AND NEW RICHMOND WI...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70 WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE CAPE GRADIENT WAS RIGHT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT. AN MCS WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHOSE OUTFLOW
WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO WISCONSIN WHILE BEING FUELED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE
REGION...CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 3000J/KG OF SBCAPE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THESE LARGE CAPE VALUES DON/T COME WITHOUT A CATCH. THE
CATCH IS THAT 700MB TEMPS +10 TO +12C BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS IT DOES SO...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25G35KTS.
FORECAST SOUNDING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT SHOW BOTH INCREDIBLE SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE FRONT AND NOT REALIZE THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...BUT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH
MID LEVEL COOLING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION. STORMS WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS DISCRETE CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX
AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND/HAIL THREAT. STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME ELEVATED AT THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT COULD STILL POSE A HAIL/WIND THREAT.
FINALLY...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...NOT TO
MENTION THE ONGOING MCS...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY HEAVY RAIN
WILL POSE A FLOOD THREAT. ESPECIALLY IN THE SENSITIVE CANNON RIVER
BASIN. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CDFNT BETWEEN SFC LOWS
CENTERED OVER SE MANITOBA AND WRN KANSAS WILL GAIN IMPETUS TO PUSH
E AS A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS
BY LATE MRNG WED. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HIGHLY
CONCENTRATED LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF RAINFALL ACRS MUCH
OF THE MPX CWFA. MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE
RAINFALL FCST FOR WED BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY EASILY
PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
SEVERE WX PROSPECTS ARE QUITE LOW SINCE THE BULK OF THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FRONT...WORKING WITH LITTLE
INSOLATION BEFORE THE FROPA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH GREATLY WED
NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE W...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRIER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES EXPANDING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH THE COLD FROPA...WITH HIGHS BUMPED BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S AND
LOWS INTO THE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG RAIN-MAKER FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MEANDERING OVER THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST THU WILL BE NUDGED OVER THE ROCKIES THU INTO FRI
AS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THIS SFC LOW
WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FRI AND SHIFT
E INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUN MRNG. NOT A HUGE PUNCH OF
WARMER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR SUPPRESSED TO THE S...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL BE NUDGED INTO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-60S. THE BEST CHCS FOR
PRECIP COMES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN DRIER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE STATE...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20G30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT WEST AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
KMSP...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING THE STORMS SHOULD
BE DONE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AT TIMES.
FINALLY...STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...SO
TRIED TO TIME IT FROM 03-06Z.
/OUTLOOK/
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE...WINDS BECOMING NW.
THURSDAY...VFR...WINDS NW AT 10KT
FRIDAY...VFR...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RENVILLE-
STEARNS-SWIFT-TODD.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PIERCE-POLK-
ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
MPG/JPC/JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
819 PM MDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AS THE SUN
LOWERS THIS EVENING. THE RAP MODEL ENDS SHOWERS AT 3Z. THE
DIMMING GOES VISUAL ALSO REVEALS CU GETTING THINNER UPSTREAM. SO
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO END THIS MID EVENING. WINDS SENSORS AROUND
FORT PECK LAKE ALSO RECORD DIMINISHING WINDS. SO CANCELLED THE
NPW. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH A WET SURFACE...A CHALLENGE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG BY MORNING. FOR NOW THE
MODELS ARE NOT THAT CERTAIN SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW AND
REVISIT LATER TONIGHT FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT AMPLE
PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN MONTANA YESTERDAY HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF
MONTANA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONED EAST
OF BISMARCK WITH SCATTER SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD
PROPAGATION... PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NEMONT WILL RELAX AND
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR NEMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA. THIS WILL
INHIBIT CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OVER EASTERN MONTANA
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE MODELS
SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AT THE
END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
NEMONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND STABLE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SO ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. AES
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...INCLUDING ALOFT WHICH WILL
ACT AS A CAP FOR CONVECTION FOR MOST OF EASTERN MONTANA. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CAP WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES AS
DEEP MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. BY MONDAY RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...AND ALTHOUGH CAP STILL FAIRLY STRONG...MODELS INDICATING A
WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTH WHICH COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED BELOW. EBERT
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE PAC-NW COAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE
RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHOWS SIGNS OF SHIFTING EAST OF MONTANA
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGING AND INCREASED THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
AVERAGE. WITH SUMMER HEAT...INSTABILITY BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES RANGE AROUND 2000 TO 3500 J/KG
DAILY. CAPE ALIGNS WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ADDS 0-6KM SHEAR TO THE EQUATIONS.
HOWEVER...TRIGGERS ARE NOT STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A
STATIONARY TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY AT 850MB THAT STRADDLES THE CWA AND
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT COULD SEND A FEW DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA. SO DAILY THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
THE CHANGE COMES AROUND TUESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
FROM THE WEST SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEMONT. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE HIGH...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE SINCE IT IS
DAY 7. THE COLD FRONT TIMING IS SIMILAR IN BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EC. SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC ARE CLOSE
IN TIMING. THERE WILL BE A COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO CANADA AND MIGHT ONLY PROVIDE
TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
EXPECTED CEILINGS. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. MODELS DO BRING
SOME QG-FORCING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR INDICATING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK LIFT ALOFT. THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINS TO DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WILL
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER 80S
EXPECTED. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED IN REGARDS TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...FINER
SCALE DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WHILE A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
IN ADDITION...A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL GET EJECTED OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN...TIMING EACH
DISTURBANCE IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASE ACROSS
CUSTER...FALLON...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH ADEQUATE
SPEED SHEAR. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPPING DURING THIS
TIME AND ITS JUST A MATTER OF IF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY THERE
AS CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2700 J/KG.
FOR SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...SAME PATTERN HOLDS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE RIDGE GETTING SHIFTED EAST BY TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER 06Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/074 048/081 056/087 059/091 062/093 063/094 065/085
23/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 040/071 040/079 047/085 052/087 053/090 054/086 056/078
33/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 050/075 045/082 054/091 060/094 065/096 063/096 064/085
23/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 050/076 049/082 056/087 063/090 064/095 065/095 068/086
24/T 10/U 02/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 049/074 047/081 057/093 060/090 065/097 066/100 068/090
23/T 10/U 02/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 048/070 047/078 057/085 061/086 061/088 064/091 068/086
24/T 10/U 02/T 31/B 11/N 22/T 22/T
SHR 045/069 045/079 052/089 061/092 063/094 063/093 062/087
23/W 10/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
CONVECTION THROUGH THE BISMARCK-MANDAN AREA AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...INCLUDING AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WOULD BE FAVORED FOR
STRONGER STORMS...ALSO IN PART DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY
ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A RETURN TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A QUICKLY PROPAGATING
SHORTWAVE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY SHOULD
BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
THEREAFTER....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS AND AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...FAVORING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MVFR WILL BE THE MOST COMMON FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 00-03
UTC FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE A THREAT AT
KISN...KMOT...KJMS AND KBIS AFTER 05 UTC TONIGHT GIVEN PRECIPITATION
FROM TODAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES
REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS
CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS YIELDING HIGHS POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MVFR WILL BE THE MOST COMMON FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BY 00-03 UTC FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE A THREAT AT
KISN...KMOT...KJMS AND KBIS AFTER 05 UTC TONIGHT GIVEN
PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
918 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 14 UTC. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE. NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS OF 14 UTC...POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION FROM
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FOR EAST INTO EARLY EVENING.
ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS. HRRR AND RUC HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EAST ALL AFTERNOON SO EVENTUALLY IT MIGHT HAPPEN.
A WARM AND DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA PROVIDING SOUTH TO SW
WINDS. SOME DISSIPATING CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR NE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD TOP OUT
NEAR BUT JUST UNDER THE 100 DEGREE CRITERIA WED AFTERNOON SO WILL
NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL AFFECTING THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
ON WED.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION DEVELOPS THUS DETERMINING POPS AND QPF. WILL KEEP POPS
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH POP TOPPING OUT ABOUT 50 TO 55% WITH
THE FRONT ON THU. IF THE FRONT IS FASTER THEN MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SE PART OF THE CWA. EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES INDICATE SOME STRONG STORMS PROBABLY
WILL OCCUR BUT NOT LOOKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK.
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SE HALF LATER THU NIGHT THEN DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA
ON FRI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT JUST NOT SOLD ON MUCH OF THIS GIVEN
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING IN ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR. BASED ON
COLLABORATION AND CONTINUITY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER ON FRI AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR EAST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND +10 TO +12C. MAIN FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR
SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM EASTERN CANADA...SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
POSITION WITH THE GFS LOW FURTHER EAST WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO/NWRN PA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE EXTREME CHANGE IN PATTERN BUT WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +4 TO +6 AS IS SHOWN ON THE ECMWF...TUESDAY
HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID 60S AND WE COULD SEE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN LAKE TEMPS 16 TO 20C. WILL TAKE A MODERATE
APPROACH WITH HIGHS DROPPING THROUGH THE 70S DURING THE PERIOD WITH
CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY...OWING TO THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OHIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COULD SEE A COULD HOURS OF PATCHY MVFR MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY QUIET AS FAR AS WINDS AND WAVES GO UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
931 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES
A BIT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR...STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
APPEARS CAPPING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION
ISOLATED AT BEST. ALSO...THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN NORTHEAST KANSAS.
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM CDT WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...BUT APPEARS
THIS POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND DUE TO LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING.
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
CONFIDENCE OF RECEIVING RAIN IS DECREASING. HOWEVER...
MOST LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DEPICTS THAT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 7 AM CDT TIME FRAME ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE OKC METRO AREA AFTER 4 AM CDT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MODELS INDICATED DECREASING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER CAPPING. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY
AFTER 1 AM CDT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 01 TO 02Z
WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MANY TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z THURS. BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN AT
KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
TSRA AND BEHIND FRONT AS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDS IN THROUGH
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION AROUND 6 OR 7 PM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WHERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
+ 16-17 AT DDC/AMA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS. A
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR WEAKENS CONVECTION OUT WEST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS LIKE
A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION.
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE OVER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
MODELS STILL BUILD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS FORTUNATE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 30-60 DAYS. THE OFFSHOOT WILL
BE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 87 68 89 / 30 40 20 0
HOBART OK 69 89 68 92 / 30 50 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 94 71 95 / 10 30 20 10
GAGE OK 64 86 60 91 / 40 30 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 85 63 88 / 60 40 10 0
DURANT OK 71 92 71 92 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
910 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OR A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MCS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER OK/AR IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR CONVECTIVE
GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. LAPSE
RATES AOA 500MB ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THERE IS A CAP AT AROUND
700MB WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE 10C ON THE OUN SOUNDING. THERE IS
NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT A WAVE WILL HELP WITH LIFT...AND THE 500MB
WINDS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT BEST AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS CALLED INTO QUESTION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE 60% POPS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE POP FORECAST WILL NOT BE RAISED ANY HIGHER
THAN THE 50-60% WE HAVE GOING. BOTTOM LINE...BASED ON THE NEWEST
DATA...THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED THIS
EVENING.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IS AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND TSRA AT BVO/TUL/RVS. PROB30S WILL
BE CARRIED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...AS TSRA CHANCES DECREASE
FURTHER S AND E. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER THIS SUMMER IS LOOMING
ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF
NEXT WEEK....WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. BEFORE THE HEAT ARRIVES THOUGH...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS THAT WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING OUR LAST DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME AND ALSO OUR LAST TASTE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR AWHILE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WANES AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT SO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO DO THE SAME.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...THE CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WILL ONLY GO DOWN WITH TIME AFTER THAT.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL HELP DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA BY MONDAY
BUT ANY REAL COOLING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING POSSIBLE HERE. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE HEAT WILL BUILD EVEN
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY...PERHAPS AS HOT AS HAS EVER BEEN RECORDED IN JUNE IN
SOME PLACES.
GENERALLY STAYED NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND WELL ABOVE THE GFS MOS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS EXTREME WITH THE HEAT AS EITHER THE ECMWF OR THE
DGEX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 85 68 92 / 50 50 10 10
FSM 71 91 70 95 / 10 40 10 10
MLC 71 88 68 93 / 30 30 10 10
BVO 71 85 63 92 / 60 40 10 10
FYV 66 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10
BYV 67 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10
MKO 71 87 66 93 / 30 50 10 10
MIO 71 86 66 91 / 50 40 10 10
F10 72 87 66 94 / 40 30 10 10
HHW 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 01 TO 02Z
WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MANY TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z THURS. BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN AT
KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
TSRA AND BEHIND FRONT AS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDS IN THROUGH
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION AROUND 6 OR 7 PM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WHERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
+ 16-17 AT DDC/AMA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS. A
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR WEAKENS CONVECTION OUT WEST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS LIKE
A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION.
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE OVER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
MODELS STILL BUILD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS FORTUNATE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 30-60 DAYS. THE OFFSHOOT WILL
BE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 87 68 89 / 30 40 20 0
HOBART OK 69 89 68 92 / 30 50 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 94 71 95 / 10 30 20 10
GAGE OK 64 86 60 91 / 60 30 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 85 63 88 / 60 40 10 0
DURANT OK 71 92 71 92 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 425 PM...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AREA. THIS IS GENERALLY
ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF THE TENN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AREA. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND FHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT EAST OF
THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENHANCED CU
FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL NC MTNS. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS
CAPE VALUES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED...SO THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. WILL GENERALLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MTN VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS. A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE TRIAD
REGION.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE SE STATES. THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONALLY WARM. THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUE AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDWEST STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LOOK TO MIX OUT EVEN MORE THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...AND THERE
WILL BE A GOOD MID-LEVEL CAP. AS A RESULT...NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF LATE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT EVEN THERE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND GENERALLY CONFINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER RIDGES.
IT WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE L-M90S
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 80S IN THE LARGER MTN
VALLEYS.
THE DEEPENING THROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL PUSH A FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
AND THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRIER
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND THE NON MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NE GA AND
THESE AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CONVECTION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. CONSIDERING HOW WEAK THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE...THE STORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AT LEAST OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH TROUGHS DEEPENING ALONG BOTH COASTS AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE ENERGY DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH IT STILL WANTS TO LIFT A SYSTEM
ACROSS FL AND OFF THE GA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE TROPICAL
FEATURE TO WEST...INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ACTUALLY...THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A SECOND TROPICAL LOOKING LOW WEST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK
TOO. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FA AS BOTH MODELS PUSH
A NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY STALL THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NVA ALOFT
DOESN/T LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE E COAST TROUGH...AND
CLIPS THE REGION WITH SOME QG FORCING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS NVA
ALOFT. NEITHER SOLUTION LOOKS VERY WET AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA REMAINING
LARGELY DRY. THE HPC MAX TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE WARM CONSIDERING THE
FALLING HEIGHTS...BUT I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THEM FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT...MAINLY SW WIND. SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT CU DISSIPATING BY
00Z. SCT MOUNTAIN -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTS A VCTS AT KAVL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
INTO FRI. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS OVER THE
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...JDL/LG
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 135 PM TUE...CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CURRENT GRIDS
REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE SE STATES. THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONALLY WARM. THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUE AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDWEST STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LOOK TO MIX OUT EVEN MORE THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...AND THERE
WILL BE A GOOD MID-LEVEL CAP. AS A RESULT...NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF LATE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT EVEN THERE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND GENERALLY CONFINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER RIDGES.
IT WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE L-M90S
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 80S IN THE LARGER MTN
VALLEYS.
THE DEEPENING THROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL PUSH A FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
AND THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRIER
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND THE NON MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NE GA AND
THESE AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CONVECTION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. CONSIDERING HOW WEAK THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE...THE STORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AT LEAST OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH TROUGHS DEEPENING ALONG BOTH COASTS AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE ENERGY DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH IT STILL WANTS TO LIFT A SYSTEM
ACROSS FL AND OFF THE GA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE TROPICAL
FEATURE TO WEST...INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ACTUALLY...THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A SECOND TROPICAL LOOKING LOW WEST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK
TOO. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FA AS BOTH MODELS PUSH
A NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY STALL THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NVA ALOFT
DOESN/T LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE E COAST TROUGH...AND
CLIPS THE REGION WITH SOME QG FORCING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS NVA
ALOFT. NIETHER SOLUTION LOOKS VERY WET AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA REMAINING
LARGELY DRY. THE HPC MAX TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE WARM CONSIDERING THE
FALLING HEIGHTS...BUT I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THEM FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT...MAINLY SW WIND. SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT CU DISSIPATING BY
00Z. SCT MOUNTAIN -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTS A VCTS AT KAVL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
INTO FRI. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS OVER THE
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 135 PM TUE...CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CURRENT GRIDS
REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE SE STATES. THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONALLY WARM. THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUE AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN WITH LOW TO MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WED...WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E.
THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN S-SE LOW LVL FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AFTN-EVE CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...WITH JUST A LITTLE INSTABLITY OVER THE MTNS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVG. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU...PUSHING THE SFC RIDGE
FARTHER S AS WELL. WITH LGT SW LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEG
OR TWO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY THAN WED BUT IT STILL APPEARS
WARM MID LEVELS WILL CAP THE ATMOS...ESP OUTSIDE THE MTNS. WITH THIS
IN MIND KEPT POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHC...MAINLY MTNS THU AFTN-EARLY
EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH TROUGHS DEEPENING ALONG BOTH COASTS AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE ENERGY DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH IT STILL WANTS TO LIFT A SYSTEM
ACROSS FL AND OFF THE GA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE TROPICAL
FEATURE TO WEST...INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ACTUALLY...THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A SECOND TROPICAL LOOKING LOW WEST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK
TOO. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FA AS BOTH MODELS PUSH
A NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY STALL THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NVA ALOFT
DOESN/T LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE E COAST TROUGH...AND
CLIPS THE REGION WITH SOME QG FORCING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS NVA
ALOFT. NIETHER SOLUTION LOOKS VERY WET AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA REMAINING
LARGELY DRY. THE HPC MAX TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE WARM CONSIDERING THE
FALLING HEIGHTS...BUT I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THEM FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT...MAINLY SW WIND. SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT CU DISSIPATING BY
00Z. SCT MOUNTAIN -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTS A VCTS AT KAVL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
INTO FRI. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS OVER THE
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. WE STILL
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE INITIATION BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. CURRENT RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING CAPES IN THE 500-800J RANGE AND WIND
FIELDS REMAIN WEAK. HENCE...THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES WILL BE SEEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH WEAK SLY TO SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WE HAVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS
WILL APPROACH 90 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 80S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR GROUND LEVEL OZONE OVER THE CLT AREA WHICH IS IN AFFECT
TODAY FROM 6AM TO 9PM LOCAL TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WED...WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E.
THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN S-SE LOW LVL FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AFTN-EVE CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...WITH JUST A LITTLE INSTABLITY OVER THE MTNS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVG. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU...PUSHING THE SFC RIDGE
FARTHER S AS WELL. WITH LGT SW LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEG
OR TWO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY THAN WED BUT IT STILL APPEARS
WARM MID LEVELS WILL CAP THE ATMOS...ESP OUTSIDE THE MTNS. WITH THIS
IN MIND KEPT POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHC...MAINLY MTNS THU AFTN-EARLY
EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES W AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK FROM CENTRL CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING A
TROF OVER THE E US THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT BRINGING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NW
FRI-SAT...BUT WITHOUT MUCH THICKNESS OR AIRMASS CHANGE...WILL KEEP
LOW TO SLIGHT CHC DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE
PERIOD WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT S TO
SWLY WINDS PERSISTING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF CALM TO LIGHT
VRB WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. EXPECT FEW TO
SCT HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CU DEVELOPING MOSTLY
OVER THE NC MTS DURING THE DAY. SOME SCT CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NC MTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST. I DONT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
THRU THU...WITH ISO TO SCT AFTN TSTMS OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1030 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Minor update to increase pops to accomodate a very
thin line of almost stationary showers from Coulee Dam to
Fruitland to just north of Deer Park. Otherwise remainder of
forecast is unchanged and calls for convection this afternoon
which includes some thunderstorms. 12Z KOTX sounding shows the
cool pool and low tropopause which is to be expected as the
forecast area remains on the north side of the jet stream and the
sounding is giving us a picture of the cool conditionally unstable
airmass that is typically found on the north side. Upper level
winds from the sounding arent useful to come up with a storm
motion for the afternoon convection and instead will use what the
latest HRRR hints at which is showers and thunderstorms forming
then taking a trajectory from north to south at about 15
mph...which is quite close to the latest GFS average 0-6KmAgl wind
progged for 00z Wednesday. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Most low level MVFR stratus over Northeast Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle has dissipated...however some might remain to as
late as 21Z as some mid and higher level cloud cover inhibit its
erosion for a spell. Otherwise destabilization of atmosphere today
allows for with scattered showers developing over the mountains
surrounding the Columbia Basin and moving to the south at about 15
mph. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms. This
activity will rapidly wind down after 03z this evening as the lower
atmosphere stabilizes. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
847 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Minor update to increase pops to accomodate a very
thin line of almost stationary showers from Coulee Dam to
Fruitland to just north of Deer Park. Otherwise remainder of
forecast is unchanged and calls for convection this afternoon
which includes some thunderstorms. 12Z KOTX sounding shows the
cool pool and low tropopause which is to be expected as the
forecast area remains on the north side of the jet stream and the
sounding is giving us a picture of the cool conditionally unstable
airmass that is typically found on the north side. Upper level
winds from the sounding arent useful to come up with a storm
motion for the afternoon convection and instead will use what the
latest HRRR hints at which is showers and thunderstorms forming
then taking a trajectory from north to south at about 15
mph...which is quite close to the latest GFS average 0-6KmAgl wind
progged for 00z Wednesday. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist low levels and low level upslope flow will result in
areas of MVFR stratus over Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle through 17z. This has already moved into KCOE as of 11z
and may also impact KGEG and KSFF. The atmosphere will again
destabilize after 18z today with scattered showers developing over
the mountains surrounding the Columbia Basin. There will also be a
slight chance of thunderstorms. This activity will rapidly wind
down after 03z this evening as the lower atmosphere stabilizes. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
440 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Water vapor satellite imagery as of 2 am
indicated a long wave trough over the area with the jet diving
south of the area into Oregon. This will place Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho on the cold and unstable side of the
jet today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms once
again developing in the late morning and afternoon mainly over the
mountains. A couple vort maxes noted on water vapor this morning
that will be monitored today. One is off Vancouver Island and will
miss our area to the west and south. Second one over southern
British Columbia will drop south over the North Washington
Cascades this morning. With the atmosphere more stable during the
morning models including the HRRR are not very excited about
anything more than isolated showers this morning over the
Cascades. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable after 18z
convection will begin firing over the mountains. The best
instability will lie over the Northern Washington mountains and
North Idaho Panhandle with models indicating uncapped CAPES of
200-500 J/KG. This activity will decrease early this evening and
then likely end after sunset. Abundant boundary layer moisture
will lead to patchy fog in the northern valleys early this morning
and again late tonight. JW
Wednesday through Monday: The big pattern change to drier and
warmer conditions will begin Wednesday as rapid 500mb ht rises of
as much as 90 meters by Thursday morning within the amplifying
mid- level ridge axis across the Pacific Nw produces a more stable
air- mass. This warming should last into at least Thursday as the
low- level thermal ridge strengthens partly in response to the
offshore cyclone digging very slowly down the Sw BC and Pacific Nw
coasts. We should see 850mb temps of 15c to 20c in this warm
southerly surge by Thurs (usually associated with high temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s for Ern Wa), then potentially shifting
east into Id and Wrn Montana by Fri. We continue to see decent
consistency in model guidance confirming that Thursday will be one
of, if not the warmest day of the week. That said, we warmed fcst
high temps Thurs by 3-5F. This eastward shift of the thermal ridge
will be in response to the impending cold front fcst by guidance
to move across the Cascades beginning Friday. Though the GFS and
ECMWF are surprisingly good agreement with their latest runs three
to four days out, there are still significant challenges mainly
due to how quickly a series of speed maxes eject from the offshore
trough and drives the cold front east through the region. Even
more complicated will be deciding on the nocturnal thunder threat, as
a clear signal in the form of an elevated plume of moist
convective instability above 700mb develops Thurs Nt through
Friday Nt. We delayed the onset of the first pcpn threat until
Thursday night...which will be the precursor to the cold front and
more widespread pcpn late Friday. For Saturday...a significant
post cold front short-wave lifts NE into the Cascades on both the
GFS and ECMWF, providing a second round of showers and thunder.
Following a possible short break in pcpn Sunday, it looks as if
the entire offshore trough finally ejects NE across the Cascades
and advances quickly trough Id and into BC and Alberta. When this
ejection takes place, it will essentially be the main event and
provide the best chance of widespread strong thunder. Again...
this is six days out, so we`ll watch it closely for timing
changes. bz
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist low levels and low level upslope flow will result in
areas of MVFR stratus over Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle through 17z. This has already moved into KCOE as of 11z
and may also impact KGEG and KSFF. The atmosphere will again
destabilize after 18z today with scattered showers developing over
the mountains surrounding the Columbia Basin. There will also be a
slight chance of thunderstorms. This activity will rapidly wind
down after 03z this evening as the lower atmosphere stabilizes. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
250 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Water vapor satellite imagery as of 2 am
indicated a long wave trough over the area with the jet diving
south of the area into Oregon. This will place Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho on the cold and unstable side of the
jet today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms once
again developing in the late morning and afternoon mainly over the
mountains. A couple vort maxes noted on water vapor this morning
that will be monitored today. One is off Vancouver Island and will
miss our area to the west and south. Second one over southern
British Columbia will drop south over the North Washington
Cascades this morning. With the atmosphere more stable during the
morning models including the HRRR are not very excited about
anything more than isolated showers this morning over the
Cascades. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable after 18z
convection will begin firing over the mountains. The best
instability will lie over the Northern Washington mountains and
North Idaho Panhandle with models indicating uncapped CAPES of
200-500 J/KG. This activity will decrease early this evening and
then likely end after sunset. Abundant boundary layer moisture
will lead to patchy fog in the northern valleys early this morning
and again late tonight. JW
Wednesday through Monday: The big pattern change to drier and
warmer conditions will begin Wednesday as rapid 500mb ht rises of
as much as 90 meters by Thursday morning within the amplifying
mid- level ridge axis across the Pacific Nw produces a more stable
air- mass. This warming should last into at least Thursday as the
low- level thermal ridge strengthens partly in response to the
offshore cyclone digging very slowly down the Sw BC and Pacific Nw
coasts. We should see 850mb temps of 15c to 20c in this warm
southerly surge by Thurs (usually associated with high temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s for Ern Wa), then potentially shifting
east into Id and Wrn Montana by Fri. We continue to see decent
consistency in model guidance confirming that Thursday will be one
of, if not the warmest day of the week. That said, we warmed fcst
high temps Thurs by 3-5F. This eastward shift of the thermal ridge
will be in response to the impending cold front fcst by guidance
to move across the Cascades beginning Friday. Though the GFS and
ECMWF are surprisingly good agreement with their latest runs three
to four days out, there are still significant challenges mainly
due to how quickly a series of speed maxes eject from the offshore
trough and drives the cold front east through the region. Even
more complicated will be deciding on the nocturnal thunder threat, as
a clear signal in the form of an elevated plume of moist
convective instability above 700mb develops Thurs Nt through
Friday Nt. We delayed the onset of the first pcpn threat until
Thursday night...which will be the precursor to the cold front and
more widespread pcpn late Friday. For Saturday...a significant
post cold front short-wave lifts NE into the Cascades on both the
GFS and ECMWF, providing a second round of showers and thunder.
Following a possible short break in pcpn Sunday, it looks as if
the entire offshore trough finally ejects NE across the Cascades
and advances quickly trough Id and into BC and Alberta. When this
ejection takes place, it will essentially be the main event and
provide the best chance of widespread strong thunder. Again...
this is six days out, so we`ll watch it closely for timing
changes. bz
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper trough will linger over the region, with
scattered showers around the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE TAF sites and chances
toward KPUW/KLWS tonight. VFR conditions are expected to dominate,
but lcl MVFR cigs/vis are possible especially toward KCOE where
precipitation may be heavier. Additionally as the precipitation
ends toward morning, there is some threat MVFR/isolated IFR
stratus toward the east. Tuesday afternoon will see primarily VFR
conditions with a scattered shower threat developing again, before
dissipating after dark. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SW WI WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND
REACH A PRINCETON TO LONE ROCK LINE AROUND 10 PM. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF WI AND IOWA. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME ELEVATED AROUND 500 J/KG BEHIND THE FRONT. SFC-850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS IS THE MAIN TRIGGER BUT MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING
OF THIS AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT CROSSES SRN WI. THIS ALSO COINCIDES
WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL WEAKENING THAT OCCURS LATE AT NIGHT. THE
LATEST 4KM HRRR MODEL AND LOCAL 4 KM WRF MODEL DUE SHOW A
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 06Z. HIGH POPS FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF SE WI STILL LOOK GOOD AS WELL
AS THE CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SE WI WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY.
BEST ESTIMATE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO BEGIN IN MADISON IS CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA FROM
07Z THROUGH 12Z THU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MISS OUT ON
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK
AND BEST 500MB PVA NORTH OF THE CWA ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. 12Z
NAM/GFS SHOW DIMINISHING FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALOFT AS IT CROSSES
WISCONSIN...SO THINK PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE WEST.
12Z MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY VORT MAX LAGGING BEHIND THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AND CROSSING THE MKX CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
MIDLEVELS ARE DRY BY THIS TIME SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. WITH THE FRONT PASSING EARLY IN THE DAY MUCH MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH
PERFORMED WELL JUST BEFORE THE WARM SPELL BEGAN AS A BASIS AND THEN
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON MODEL 925MB TEMPS AND DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING PROFILE. ALSO WILL EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S MOST PLACES. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WORK WITH THROUGH...SO MAINLY EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS FROM
THE WAVE...BUT OVERALL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH
HELPING TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIME
PERIOD FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES...SO JUST KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS VERY PLEASANT...WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CURRENT TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT STILL ON TRACK...WITH LATEST MODELS
STILL SHOWING THE FRONT LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT ROLLS THROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT MSN BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES UES/MKE/ENW. VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHERE MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER THAT IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR.
WILL REFLECT THIS IN TEMPO GROUP FOR THE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINIMUM CRITERIA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET. AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO SHORTEN
THE DURATION OF THE ADVISORY...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO PREVIOUS SHIFT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WIMBERLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
650 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIGHTING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH FURTHER
HEATING...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AND FGEN ARE ALSO SPREADING OVER THE FRONT TO
AID IN THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA BENEATH AN
UPPER TROUGH. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT...SEVERE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG STORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ML CAPES WILL BE
IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WITH A DECENT WIND FIELD AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS BETWEEN
30-35KTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE STORMS ARRIVE. INSTABILITY DOES
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST...PERHAPS TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY ENTER
THE FOX VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PWATS OF 1.80 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL. SHOULD
SEE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER 09Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO MOVE IN IN
ITS WAKE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEFINITELY GOOD ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD
ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY. NOT SURE ABOUT A TRIGGER
FOR SHOWER POSSIBILITIES...BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
INTERACT WITH 300-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE OVER N-C WISCONSIN. WILL
LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR NOW BUT MENTION POSSIBILITY TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A NICE
SEASONABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND A REFRESHING HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MORE JET ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
BIG SURFACE HIGH THEN SHOULD DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A LATE SEASON FROST IN
THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION YET IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK YET DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR IF NOT IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. LOOKING AT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT
RHI IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLD TO SCATTTERED
SHOWERS.
TE
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
629 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE STORMS THIS EVENING...POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION HAS BUBBLED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST RUNNING COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHWEST IA. GOOD
CONVERGENCE NEAR...BUT MOSTLY POST THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A
STRONG THERMAL BAND IN THE LOW LAYERS. ABOUT 1000 OR SO J/KG OF
MLCAPE AROUND THE FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE RISK IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY LATE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS
SUPPORT WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE ON
THAT IN THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE...IN
THE REGION OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. CAPE MUCH LESS IN THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE A BIT BETTER. COULD BE SOME SEVERE
RISK IN THIS AREA...BUT THINK THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE AROUND THE
FRONT.
FOR THU/FRI...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT...WITH
THE 20.12Z NAM AND GFS HINTING AT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY SEEMS A
BIT STRONGER. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTH/EAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT
A LOT...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED VIA RUC SOUNDINGS
AND RH PLOTS THAT SOME SHRA/TS COULD BE GENERATED IN THIS AREA. WILL
ADD SMALL CHANCES FOR THU AND CONTINUE THE FRI CHANCES.
THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SD/NEB FRI NIGHT/SAT. THIS STORM COMPLEX AND
RESULTING MCV WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS IA/MN/WI ON SAT...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIDE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE EC LOOKS MORE LIKE A MIX
OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS IN
THIS TIME FRAME.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME LESS HUMID
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH HOW LONG TO LINGER THE SAT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE EC WOULD BRING IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS WOULD HANG IT AROUND ON SUNDAY. GEM IS A BIT
QUICKER...ALA THE EC. WILL STEER TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN
THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME LEAN ON THE QUICKER EC/GEM.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR MON-WED WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EASES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. MOSTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
629 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN IOWA.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BOTH THE KRST AND KLSE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. IFR VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS CEILINGS WILL BE
LIKELY WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 04Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 11Z-14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT SUGGEST
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT TONIGHT. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS
SHOULD MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP NORTHEAST...THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED 2
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH OVERALL 1/2 TO 1 INCH TOTALS
MORE LIKELY.
SOME BASINS ARE STILL WET AND/OR HAVE RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...
INCLUDING THE ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...AND
MISSISSIPPI. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS INDICATE THE MISSISSIPPI WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN AT WABASHA ON WED...WHICH MEANS OTHER SITES ALONG THE BIG
MUDDY WILL REACH HEIGHTS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN JUST LAST
WEEK.
CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/ TO HEIGHTEN THE PUBLIC
AWARENESS OF THE SITUATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....MW/RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA AND SEVERE
CHANCES TODAY THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEB WITH
A WARM FRONT EAST ALONG THE NEB/SD MN/IA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WI.
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT SOME COOLER/DRIER
AIR HAD SETTLED INTO NORTHERN MN/WI. STRONGER OF WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION CENTERED ON 850MB AHEAD OF THE LOW FUELING CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM
AREA RADARS INDICATE CONVERGENCE IN THE 850MB WIND FIELD OVER
NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN WI...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WEAKER AND UNDER SOME WARMER 850-700MB TEMPS. CONVECTION ACROSS WI
LIMITED TO SCT SHRA FROM NEAR KGRB TO SOUTH OF KEAU...CLOSER TO THE
EDGE OF THE WARM 850-700MB TEMPS/CAPPING.
NO BIG ERRORS NOTED WITH 19.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. HOWEVER GFS
AGAIN SOME 2-7F TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SOLUTIONS WITH RATHER SIMILAR OUTCOMES FOR
TODAY THRU THU NIGHT...THOUGH GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH
PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DPROG/DT OF 500MB
HGTS AT 19.00Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z AND 18.00Z VERIFIED
WELL ACROSS NOAM WITH CURRENT RUNS TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. MODEL CONSENSUS LOOSENS THRU TONIGHT
AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NAM/GFS FASTER THAN UKMET/GEM/ECMWF...WITH AN OVERALL SLOWING TREND
WITH THIS TROUGH. THE SLOWER TREND CONTINUES WED/WED NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO MN/WI WITH A BIT BETTER CONSENSUS AT 12Z THU THAN
12Z WED. THE SLOWER TREND HOLDS MORE TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THRU
THU NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWER TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SIMILAR AMONG
THE MODELS. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL REASONABLE
WITH THE LOW AND WARM FRONTAL POSITION. GFS REMAINED TOO HIGH WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WAS MUCH TOO
WET/WIDESPREAD WITH 00-06Z CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI. PER WV
IMAGERY ALL MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. NO FAVORED MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING...
OTHER THAN LEANING AWAY FROM THE OVERLY WET GFS. HOWEVER AFTER THIS
MORNING...GFS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS AT LEAST WITH PRECIP
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORED A MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR TODAY THRU THU NIGHT...WITH SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...DISTANCE SPEED TOOL...CORFIDI VECTORS AND
PRESENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS MN SHOWS IT WILL SKIRT THE NORTH
END OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG/NORTH OF A LAKE CITY MN
AND HWY 10 ACROSS CENTRAL WI LINE. WARM FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY BACK
NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO EASTERN SD. THIS SENDS
THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/CONVERGENCE/LIFT
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA RATHER QUICKLY. WILL LIMITS MOST OF SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA TODAY TO THE 12-15Z
TIME-FRAME. WARM 850-700MB TEMPS WILL BUILD NORTH AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-
100 RANGE UNDER THE CAPPING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA FOR
BRISK SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25MPH AND GUSTY IN PLACES. WINDS SHOULD
HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE HEAT AND WILL AGAIN HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT
ADVISORY FOR NOW.
THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS MN TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT TO NEAR A KDLH-KFSD LINE BY 12Z WED. MODELS DO DIFFER ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT BY 12Z WED...BUT CONSENSUS IS SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM
ADVECTION THETA-E CONVERGENCE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS UNDER COOLING 700-50MB TEMPS AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. CAP ERODES FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED...WITH
AREA UNDER FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+KT 300MB JET
MAX...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THIS ALONG WITH MDT/STRONG SHOT OF SFC-
700MB FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES...ML CAPES OF 1K-2K J/KG AND INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR. SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED EVENING AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SEE SWODY2 AND
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING AND
IMPROVING MODEL CONSISTENCY RAISED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 70-80 PERCENT
OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA WED AND SOUTHEAST 1/3 WED
EVENING. ADDED MORE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO RAIN CHANCES ON WED.
LINGERED MORE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WED NIGHT.
WEATHER TURNS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS DRIER/COOLER
HIGHS PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 50S WITH HIGHS THU IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY ON THU.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTH
WINDS FOR MIXING...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY.
AFTER THAT...TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI-MON WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRI THEN RIDGING ALOFT TRYING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT-MON. SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THRU AND
OVER THE MODEST RIDGING FRI/SAT KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
NORTHWEST AND CYCLONIC. GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS FOR ONE OF THESE WAVES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FRI/SAT. ACCOMPANYING ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
SFC-700MB LOW/TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE AREA CENTERED ON SAT.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE CENTERED ON SAT LOOK
WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH A RATHER STRONG CAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN/MON. MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR DRY WITH NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON DAYS 6/7 ALSO
LOOKS WELL TRENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ON THE NOSE OF STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
19.01Z HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN THRUST OF THIS TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z....BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH AT
BOTH SITES. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR INCLUSION OF TSRA
IF THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SOUTH. CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT KRST. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP ABOVE
12 KNOTS ALL TE WAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WED/WED EVENING
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE FIRST COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING MN...AND HAS A BEAD
FOR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT GOT THE
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING. AMPLE PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
GENERATE STORMS AS WE ARE SEEING...BUT THE POSITIVE IN THIS SO FAR
IS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS. FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY
TRANSLATING NORTHWARD...FURTHER SHIFTING THE THREAT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTH FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE KEY HERE
WILL BE HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TROUGH IS DEEPENING AND
SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED PER THE MODEL
FORECASTS...AND THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOMEWHAT. STORMS
WILL HAVE A GOOD NORTHEAST FORWARD MOTION...BUT MAY SEE SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH /ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...
TREMPEALEAU...MISSISSIPPI/ SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLS FOR ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAT EACH ROUND MAY
HAVE.
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN ON TOWARD THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA STATE LINE. THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WAVE COMES THROUGH AND THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. A 700-800MB CAP HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH THE BEST
COMBINATION OF CAP-FREE ENVIRONMENT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND BECOMES STATIONARY TOWARD THE MN/IA STATE LINE
TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN
PUSH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN
AND EASTERN NE/SD WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND PULL THE WARM FRONT BACK UP TO THE NORTH. SO...AS
CONVECTION RE-IGNITES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 6-12Z TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE 12-18Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
SURGE OF MOISTURE NOSING UP CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN AND
IA...THINKING THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
IN THAT REGION. HOWEVER...IF IT CAN DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND RACE
EASTWARD ALONG THE LLJ NOSE THEN IT COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE WIND SHEAR IS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS
UNDER THE INVERSION BUT 0-3KM MUCAPE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT
1000-2000 J/KG. OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN AS
WELL GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE FORCING WILL HAVE TO COME FROM
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES WHICH APPEARS BETTER OFF
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
HOT...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT UP IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD A SECOND LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.ANY SEVERE
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WOULD BE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INSTABILITY BUILDING JUST AHEAD OF IT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN IOWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
ITS BEST CHANCES OF SEEING A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF UP TO AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP
INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM BOTH
THE 18.12Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING LIFTING
UP INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FRONT...IT MAY BE A GOOD SETUP FOR AN
MCS TO DEVELOP OFF TO THE WEST AND RUN EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
REGION BEYOND THIS WITH COOLER AIR DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ON THE NOSE OF STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
19.01Z HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN THRUST OF THIS TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z....BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH AT
BOTH SITES. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR INCLUSION OF TSRA
IF THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SOUTH. CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT KRST. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP ABOVE
12 KNOTS ALL TE WAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS
BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FOLLOWING TIME
PERIODS...THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND THEN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA THAT HAS
BEEN HIT THE HARDEST RECENTLY IS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH ANYWHERE
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES FALLING OVER THE PAST WEEK. AREA RIVERS WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE RISE DUE TO THESE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT WHETHER
ANY OF THEM GO INTO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT IS UNCERTAIN SINCE
MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY FAST MOVERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 76 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 84 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 40
NAPLES 84 75 84 77 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 07Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOST PART OF THE CWA. LINGERING AND DECAYING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH DRIER WEATHER ALREADY
MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED AHEAD
OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL RAP AND HRRR...ALONG WITH 00Z MODELS AGREE IN
CONTINUING THE TREND IN WEAKENING THE SHOWERS AND MOVING THEM
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS.
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THOUGH COOLER
TEMPS ARE IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AS A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ONE
NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON
THE POSITION OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CWFA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS.
AT SUNRISE SATURDAY THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF THE
NOCTURNAL MCS. CONCEPTUALLY AND INTERNALLY FROM THE MODELS THIS MCS
SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NOT
FAR NORTH OF THE SD/NE BORDER. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE MCS SHOULD
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KFSD OR NORTHWEST IOWA. MCS AND LIFT TOOLS
ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MCS WOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THE
LLJ WEAKENS AND IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED. THUS RAINFALL
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS MORE SHRA THAN TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN INITIALLY.
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE TSRA.
WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONT/BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT/BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
SUNDAY ON...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA AT SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD
END DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS NEAR
MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD BE AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 08
&&
.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING SCATTERED...SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CID AND DBQ SITES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE MLI AND BRL SITES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AND
GIVEN THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...LESS LIKELY AT MLI AND
BRL. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE RAIN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
STILL...AT LEAST ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. WITH LINGERING
FRONT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/SRN OK AND TX. WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS...RECENT OBS SUGGEST
THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC...THUS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CIGS ONCE
POST FRONTAL SHRA CLEARS TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
UPDATE...
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES
A BIT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR...STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
APPEARS CAPPING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION
ISOLATED AT BEST. ALSO...THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN NORTHEAST KANSAS.
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM CDT WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...BUT APPEARS
THIS POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND DUE TO LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING.
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
CONFIDENCE OF RECEIVING RAIN IS DECREASING. HOWEVER...
MOST LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DEPICTS THAT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 7 AM CDT TIME FRAME ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KOKC METRO AREA AFTER 4 AM CDT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MODELS INDICATED DECREASING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER CAPPING. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY
AFTER 1 AM CDT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 01 TO 02Z
WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MANY TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z THURS. BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN AT
KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
TSRA AND BEHIND FRONT AS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDS IN THROUGH
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION AROUND 6 OR 7 PM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WHERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
+ 16-17 AT DDC/AMA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS. A
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR WEAKENS CONVECTION OUT WEST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS LIKE
A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION.
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE OVER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
MODELS STILL BUILD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS FORTUNATE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 30-60 DAYS. THE OFFSHOOT WILL
BE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 71 87 68 / 10 30 40 20
HOBART OK 92 69 89 68 / 0 30 50 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 94 71 / 0 10 30 20
GAGE OK 91 64 86 60 / 20 40 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 90 68 85 63 / 10 60 40 10
DURANT OK 90 71 92 71 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THINKING LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE FIRST 3 TO 9 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NE OK TERMINALS...WITH LESSER
CHANCES AT MLC AND THE NW AR TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OR A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MCS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER OK/AR IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR CONVECTIVE
GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. LAPSE
RATES AOA 500MB ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THERE IS A CAP AT AROUND
700MB WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE 10C ON THE OUN SOUNDING. THERE IS
NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT A WAVE WILL HELP WITH LIFT...AND THE 500MB
WINDS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT BEST AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS CALLED INTO QUESTION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE 60% POPS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE POP FORECAST WILL NOT BE RAISED ANY HIGHER
THAN THE 50-60% WE HAVE GOING. BOTTOM LINE...BASED ON THE NEWEST
DATA...THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED THIS
EVENING.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IS AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND TSRA AT BVO/TUL/RVS. PROB30S WILL
BE CARRIED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...AS TSRA CHANCES DECREASE
FURTHER S AND E. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER THIS SUMMER IS LOOMING
ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF
NEXT WEEK....WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. BEFORE THE HEAT ARRIVES THOUGH...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS THAT WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING OUR LAST DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME AND ALSO OUR LAST TASTE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR AWHILE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WANES AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT SO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO DO THE SAME.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...THE CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WILL ONLY GO DOWN WITH TIME AFTER THAT.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL HELP DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA BY MONDAY
BUT ANY REAL COOLING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING POSSIBLE HERE. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE HEAT WILL BUILD EVEN
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY...PERHAPS AS HOT AS HAS EVER BEEN RECORDED IN JUNE IN
SOME PLACES.
GENERALLY STAYED NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND WELL ABOVE THE GFS MOS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS EXTREME WITH THE HEAT AS EITHER THE ECMWF OR THE
DGEX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 85 68 92 / 50 50 10 10
FSM 71 91 70 95 / 10 40 10 10
MLC 71 88 68 93 / 30 30 10 10
BVO 71 85 63 92 / 60 40 10 10
FYV 66 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10
BYV 67 85 64 90 / 20 40 10 10
MKO 71 87 66 93 / 30 50 10 10
MIO 71 86 66 91 / 50 40 10 10
F10 72 87 66 94 / 40 30 10 10
HHW 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 81 64 92 67 97 / 30 10 5 5 0
BEAVER OK 83 63 94 70 101 / 20 5 5 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 79 62 93 67 100 / 20 10 5 5 5
BORGER TX 82 68 94 71 100 / 30 10 5 5 0
BOYS RANCH TX 82 66 96 70 101 / 30 10 5 5 0
CANYON TX 81 64 93 66 96 / 40 10 5 5 0
CLARENDON TX 81 67 91 68 95 / 40 10 5 5 0
DALHART TX 79 62 93 65 98 / 20 10 5 5 0
GUYMON OK 81 64 95 70 100 / 20 5 5 5 0
HEREFORD TX 81 63 92 65 95 / 30 10 5 5 0
LIPSCOMB TX 83 63 92 69 97 / 30 5 5 5 0
PAMPA TX 81 65 90 68 97 / 40 10 5 5 0
SHAMROCK TX 81 67 92 69 95 / 40 10 5 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 84 69 94 69 97 / 40 10 5 5 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z
ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE
27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP
SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN
ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE.
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY
HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL
MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE
VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES.
FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER
GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT
QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0
TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0
SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1218 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIGHTING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH FURTHER
HEATING...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AND FGEN ARE ALSO SPREADING OVER THE FRONT TO
AID IN THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA BENEATH AN
UPPER TROUGH. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT...SEVERE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG STORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ML CAPES WILL BE
IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WITH A DECENT WIND FIELD AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS BETWEEN
30-35KTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE STORMS ARRIVE. INSTABILITY DOES
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST...PERHAPS TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY ENTER
THE FOX VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PWATS OF 1.80 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL. SHOULD
SEE THE STORMS MOVE OUT AFTER 09Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO MOVE IN IN
ITS WAKE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEFINITELY GOOD ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD
ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY. NOT SURE ABOUT A TRIGGER
FOR SHOWER POSSIBILITIES...BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
INTERACT WITH 300-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE OVER N-C WISCONSIN. WILL
LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR NOW BUT MENTION POSSIBILITY TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A NICE
SEASONABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND A REFRESHING HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MORE JET ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
BIG SURFACE HIGH THEN SHOULD DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A LATE SEASON FROST IN
THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION YET IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK YET DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SCT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN WI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY...AND MAY TRIGGER
SCT SHRA AT THE RHI TAF SITE.
TSK
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE STORMS THIS EVENING...POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION HAS BUBBLED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST RUNNING COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHWEST IA. GOOD
CONVERGENCE NEAR...BUT MOSTLY POST THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A
STRONG THERMAL BAND IN THE LOW LAYERS. ABOUT 1000 OR SO J/KG OF
MLCAPE AROUND THE FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE RISK IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY LATE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS
SUPPORT WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE ON
THAT IN THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE...IN
THE REGION OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. CAPE MUCH LESS IN THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE A BIT BETTER. COULD BE SOME SEVERE
RISK IN THIS AREA...BUT THINK THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE AROUND THE
FRONT.
FOR THU/FRI...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT...WITH
THE 20.12Z NAM AND GFS HINTING AT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY SEEMS A
BIT STRONGER. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTH/EAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT
A LOT...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED VIA RUC SOUNDINGS
AND RH PLOTS THAT SOME SHRA/TS COULD BE GENERATED IN THIS AREA. WILL
ADD SMALL CHANCES FOR THU AND CONTINUE THE FRI CHANCES.
THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SD/NEB FRI NIGHT/SAT. THIS STORM COMPLEX AND
RESULTING MCV WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS IA/MN/WI ON SAT...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIDE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE EC LOOKS MORE LIKE A MIX
OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS IN
THIS TIME FRAME.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME LESS HUMID
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH HOW LONG TO LINGER THE SAT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE EC WOULD BRING IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS WOULD HANG IT AROUND ON SUNDAY. GEM IS A BIT
QUICKER...ALA THE EC. WILL STEER TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN
THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME LEAN ON THE QUICKER EC/GEM.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR MON-WED WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EASES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. MOSTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON AT THE TAF SITES.
BACK EDGE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH THE RAIN
EXPECTED TO END AT KRST BETWEEN 06Z-07Z AND 08Z AT KLSE. HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES AND IF ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP.
STILL QUITE A FEW MID CLOUDS BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA BUT BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE. DO FEEL THERE MAYBE ENOUGH BREAKS AT KRST TO
WARRANT MENTION OF SOME FOG. NOT AS CONFIDENCE AT KLSE AS CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON LATER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT SUGGEST
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT TONIGHT. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS
SHOULD MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP NORTHEAST...THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED 2
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH OVERALL 1/2 TO 1 INCH TOTALS
MORE LIKELY.
SOME BASINS ARE STILL WET AND/OR HAVE RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...
INCLUDING THE ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...AND
MISSISSIPPI. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS INDICATE THE MISSISSIPPI WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN AT WABASHA ON WED...WHICH MEANS OTHER SITES ALONG THE BIG
MUDDY WILL REACH HEIGHTS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN JUST LAST
WEEK.
CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/ TO HEIGHTEN THE PUBLIC
AWARENESS OF THE SITUATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
240 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....MW/RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
.UPDATE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE
SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INITIATING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS WITH
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF WI AND IOWA. CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELEVATED AROUND 500 J/KG
BEHIND THE FRONT. SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS THE MAIN TRIGGER BUT
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THIS AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT CROSSES
SRN WI. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL WEAKENING THAT
OCCURS LATE AT NIGHT. THE LATEST 4KM HRRR MODEL AND LOCAL 4 KM WRF
MODEL DUE SHOW A WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 06Z. HIGH
POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF SE WI STILL LOOK
GOOD AS WELL AS THE CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SE WI WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE SPOTTY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO BEGIN IN MADISON IS
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA
FROM 07Z THROUGH 12Z THU.
&&
AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR KMSN
FROM 05Z-09Z WITH THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SE WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE THE TSTORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT. A DRY WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MISS OUT ON
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK
AND BEST 500MB PVA NORTH OF THE CWA ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. 12Z
NAM/GFS SHOW DIMINISHING FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALOFT AS IT CROSSES
WISCONSIN...SO THINK PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE WEST.
12Z MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY VORT MAX LAGGING BEHIND THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AND CROSSING THE MKX CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
MIDLEVELS ARE DRY BY THIS TIME SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. WITH THE FRONT PASSING EARLY IN THE DAY MUCH MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH
PERFORMED WELL JUST BEFORE THE WARM SPELL BEGAN AS A BASIS AND THEN
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON MODEL 925MB TEMPS AND DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING PROFILE. ALSO WILL EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S MOST PLACES. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WORK WITH THROUGH...SO MAINLY EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS FROM
THE WAVE...BUT OVERALL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH
HELPING TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIME
PERIOD FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES...SO JUST KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS VERY PLEASANT...WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CURRENT TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT STILL ON TRACK...WITH LATEST MODELS
STILL SHOWING THE FRONT LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT ROLLS THROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT MSN BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES UES/MKE/ENW. VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHERE MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER THAT IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR.
WILL REFLECT THIS IN TEMPO GROUP FOR THE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINIMUM CRITERIA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET. AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO SHORTEN
THE DURATION OF THE ADVISORY...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO PREVIOUS SHIFT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WIMBERLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
527 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS
WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 1400 FEET...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STRENGTHENING IN
THE ONSHORE DIRECTION WITH 3.1 MB FROM SFO TO SAC. THE NAM12
INCREASES THIS GRADIENT TO NEARLY 5 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. AS THIS TROUGH
NEARS...AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES...AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 AT THE COAST TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...AS MANY AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE
HILLS AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL HILLS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EVEN THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR DISTRICT ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEEP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS INLAND INTRUSION. ALMOST
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STRATUS...AS THE MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOW AROUND 2000 FEET. LATE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP SOUTH AROUND THE SF BAY TOWARD
KSFO...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND A SOLID STRATUS DECK OFFSHORE...A LATE CLEARING
AROUND 20Z IS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS CLEARING
TIME BECAUSE THE NAM IS FORECASTING AN ALL DAY EVENT...WHILE THE
GFS AND WRF INDICATE CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF
THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED A LATE
CLEARING...SO WENT WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR TO
IFR CIGS THAN THE TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRED TODAY AT 4:09 PM PDT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1011 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
WITH THIS UPDATE. VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES...WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES (EXCEPT UPPER 70S SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS).
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE DAY.
SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH ANY OF THE PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE ALY RAOB AND ALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE
STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100
DEGREES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER
ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL
THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LCLS WILL MITIGATE ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LOOK FOR HIGHS 85 TO 90 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOW TO MID 90S
MOST VALLEY AREAS.
WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW BEGINNING
TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF THU NT....AND
A STRONGER CDFNT FRI.
RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY
FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH
00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL
AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND
NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND
2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING
TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI.
THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO
NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR
SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE.
IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL
IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI
FM SVT TO W CATSKILLS...PUSHING SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER
SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER
W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA FRI.
GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.
SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN
GENERAL TSTMS.
BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG
S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT
FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH
SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST
CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY
FRI.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL
DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S
HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500HPA AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER RGN TDY. VFR CONDS TODAY WITH WINDS
BCMG NW-W 10KTS....GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
WITH WARM TEMPS IN MID LEVELS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER AND ISOLD TSTM COULD FIRE TWRD EVENING IN
CATSKILLS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TNGT AS WELL WITH NR CALM WINDS
AND AREAS OF MVFR HZ AND BR LATE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. KALB/KPSF...SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA/-TSRA. SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE
FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN
35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.
ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH
OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW
RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES
FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95
DEGREES FROM 1953.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SKIES THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS IS
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
AND THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 60 TO 70
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER COMPARE TO YESTERDAY...DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CWA. SO HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER REST OF THE
CWA.
THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS. SO WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING
THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA
CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z
BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE
< 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR
FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL
TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS
AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 76 83 76 / 40 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 87 76 86 76 / 50 40 50 40
NAPLES 86 75 84 77 / 70 60 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING
THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA
CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z
BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE
< 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR
FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL
TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS
AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 76 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 76 85 77 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 84 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 40
NAPLES 84 75 84 77 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT NEARLY HALF THE WAY ACROSS THE
CWA...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 10 AM.
UNFORTUNATELY THE BADLY NEEDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSED. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE CAP...AND LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. A GOOD
PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMING OUT OF IOWA SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
STEADY OUT OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER
90S BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THAT FAR.
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/GRIDS TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI IS STEADILY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON
TRENDS AND 06Z NAM DATA...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS
AS THE FRONT PASSES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO
20KT. FURTHER WEST...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. SW WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO W BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN TO THE
W/NW AFTER FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI IS STEADILY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON
TRENDS AND 06Z NAM DATA...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS
AS THE FRONT PASSES. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO
20KT. FURTHER WEST...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. SW WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO W BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN TO THE
W/NW AFTER FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1136 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
DURING THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING. ITS TIME
OF ARRIVAL IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR MANY SHOWERS/STORMS...SO AM ONLY
CARRYING A VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALSO KEPT VFR
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH IF A HEAVY
SHOWER/STORM WERE TO OCCUR ISOLATED LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD NOT BE AS
GUSTY AS THE WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT THEN DIVERGE WITH HANDLING A
DISTURBANCE IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND. DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM ALLBLEND POPS THIS WEEKEND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY UNTIL MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED. MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER MON THRU WED
WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRESSING EASTWARD
INTO SE IA TOWARD THE IL BORDER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OVER
NW MO INTO EASTERN MO WITH MCS. COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SE INTO NW
PARTS OF IL/MO NEAR GALESBURG SO CONVECTION IS POST FRONTAL. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FRONT MOVING QUICKLY INTO SE IL
BY 18Z/1 PM WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING DURING THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL...THEN REDEVELOPING IN SE IL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT BRUNT OF ACTIVITY GETTING SE OF THE WABASH RIVER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SPC JUST HAS A 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SE
OF THE IL RIVER TODAY...BUT THINK STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER MO WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE WABASH RIVER
WHERE CONVECTION CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON AND SEE MORE
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO ASSIST HEATING MORE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70F THIS MORNING SLIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FAR SE IL EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NW TO SE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WY/SD/NE BORDER TO DRIFT EAST INTO
WI/IL BY 00Z/7 PM FRI AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE FRI WITH LESS
HUMID AIR. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 80S IN SE IL.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF IL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY YET THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SAT FROM NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
CONTINUES 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AND
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ON SUNDAY NORTH OF I-70. HIGHS 85-90 THIS
WEEKEND AND WARMEST IN SW AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON
THROUGH WED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEN.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1159 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING
POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTINOS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST
INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE
CDFNT. PREV BLO...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF
AND GFS ALSO ARE AT LEAST CONCURRING ON GENERAL PATTERN /DETAILS
OF DEEPNESS OF UPPER LOW AND TIMING OF LOWEST THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT/. HPC FORECAST HANDLES THIS CHANGE WELL AND FORMS THE
BASIS OF OUR LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
AFTER SEEING OUR FIRST AIR MASS ADJUSTMENT FROM THE COLD FRONT
EARLIER /FRIDAY/...A SECOND COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND PERSISTENT COOL UPPER LOW
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE BEYOND THEN DUE TO INSTABILITY
FROM COLD AIR ALOFT IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF DRY
SLOTTING AROUND LOBES OF THE UPPER LOW CAN KILL OFF CHANCES DURING
CERTAIN PERIODS...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE
AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME
ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF
ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE
NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT
BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
4 AM UPDATE...
BINGHAMTON TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA
JUST MISSED.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
851 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ECWMF
AND GFS ALSO ARE AT LEAST CONCURRING ON GENERAL PATTERN /DETAILS
OF DEEPNESS OF UPPER LOW AND TIMING OF LOWEST THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT/. HPC FORECAST HANDLES THIS CHANGE WELL AND FORMS THE
BASIS OF OUR LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
AFTER SEEING OUR FIRST AIR MASS ADJUSTMENT FROM THE COLD FRONT
EARLIER /FRIDAY/...A SECOND COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND PERSISTENT COOL UPPER LOW
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE BEYOND THEN DUE TO INSTABILITY
FROM COLD AIR ALOFT IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF DRY
SLOTTING AROUND LOBES OF THE UPPER LOW CAN KILL OFF CHANCES DURING
CERTAIN PERIODS...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE
AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME
ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF
ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE
NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT
BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
4 AM UPDATE...
BINGHAMTON TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA
JUST MISSED.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN
WEAKEN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM...12 NAM GENERATES MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPSTATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE MESO MODELS LIKE THE LOCAL WRF AND RAP CONFINE CONVECTION
GENERALLY TO THE PREFERRED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE HRRR DOES SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSTATE. FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED UP THE
POPS OVER THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AS ALL MODELS INDICATE
BETTER COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MENTIONABLE
POPS TO GENERALLY JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN WEAK SO THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL AGAIN
TODAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OTHER GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...THE AGING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT DOES. THUS...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT S TO
SWLY WINDS AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR ISO TO SCAT TSRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WITH A WEAKER
MID LVL INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH I STILL DONT EXPECT ANY TS TO BECOME SVR...A FEW
MIGHT COME CLOSE IF THE CAP IS EASILY BROKEN. HIGH TEMPS ARE FCST TO
BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH THE INCREASED INSOLATION AND
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW. LOWS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD ALSO BE A DEGREE
OR 2 WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH VALUES AROUND 70 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS FRI
AFTN...WITH CHC SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE
AFTN-EARLY EVE. CONVECTION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE S CWA SAT EXPECT CHC POPS TO REDEVELOP WITH
HEATING IN THE AFTN...PRIMARILY ALONG AND S OF I-85 STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME STORMS. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE E US THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HELD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SUN AND MON AFTNS AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH
INSTABLILITY AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE WEAK FRONT MEANDERING
OVER THE AREA...TO SUPPORT LOW END COVERAGE. MODELS VARY WITH
DETAILS BUT ALL KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE S
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH S OF THE CWA ON TUE BUT THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAVE TUE DRY FOR NOW BUT LATE
DAY CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING OVER THE MTNS FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS WED AFTN. LOOK
FOR ABOVE AVG TEMPS THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VISBY AT KAVL BETWEEN ABOUT 11
AND 13Z. I WAS ANTICIPATING EARLIER THAT KAVL WOULD GO DOWN TO IFR
BY NOW BUT THE SITE HAS BEEN REPORTING VFR SO FAR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY S TO SW BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH CALM CONDITIONS RETURNING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
STILL FORECASTING A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE NC MTS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NWLY DIRECTION.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO POINT TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY 19Z
IN VERY MOIST AIR WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT LYING NEAR A
MORTON TO PLAINVIEW TO WELLINGTON LINE AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ARE IN
THE 60S WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AN AREA
OF STRATOCU WITH BASES NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FT ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE TRYING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. SO THE SET UP SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE MORNING MODEL SUITE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE DESERT SW. STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT WITH MOST INDICATIONS SUGGESTING A S TO SW MOVEMENT
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MEANWHILE PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING MLCAPE FROM 1250 TO 1750 J/KG FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA. GIVEN MODERATE CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR WOULD EXPECT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY SOME LINEAR ORIENTATION INITIALLY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A PULSE-TYPE LIFE CYCLE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EARLIEST STORMS...WITH POSSIBLY A
GREATER THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT AND PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
OVERALL THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES ATTM. SKY COVER
GRID A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY COME INTO LINE
AS CUMULUS FIELD FILLS IN AND STORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IF OR WHEN THEY
MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO GROUPS
HOWEVER THIS REFLECTS WHAT THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER-GENERATED
FORECAST SHOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME APPEARS TO
BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE.
EXPECT TAFS TO BE AMENDED AS MORNING DATA STARTS TO COME OUT AND
HOPEFULLY GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON..
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z
ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE
27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP
SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN
ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE.
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY
HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL
MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE
VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES.
FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER
GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT
QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0
TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0
SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IF OR WHEN THEY
MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO GROUPS
HOWEVER THIS REFLECTS WHAT THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER-GENERATED
FORECAST SHOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME APPEARS TO
BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE.
EXPECT TAFS TO BE AMENDED AS MORNING DATA STARTS TO COME OUT AND
HOPEFULLY GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON..
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF 09Z
ALONG A FAIRLY BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT STATIONS NEAR INTERSTATE
27. THE HRRR AND OPERATIONAL RAP ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT KEEP
SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
IT AFTER SUNRISE...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO STORMS AT ALL OR HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED THEM BY 09Z. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND COULD BE SEEN
ON THE KAMA 88D LOCATED ALONG AN ADRIAN TO CLARENDON LINE.
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT IS LOW BECAUSE OF HOW POORLY THEY
HANDLED THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT ALSO FROM WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CONSISTENT THING FROM ALL
MODELS IS THAT THEY BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK BUT CAPE
VALUES APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 800-1000 J/KG IN THE NAM FLAVORS TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE RAP MODEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT BUT WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST IF STORM RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES BUT THEN COLLAPSES.
FRONT WILL START TO SLOWLY MIX NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK AND
THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
REALLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE SUMMER /IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY/ AND PROVIDE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED A FORECAST THAT HAS
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ALREADY TOASTY GUIDANCE NUMBER
GIVEN THE PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SLIM CONCERN FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES MAY BE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PAINT LIGHT
QPF NEAR THE RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY AND THETAE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING AND THE RAPID DRYING OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...THINK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 10-12 PERCENT RANGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 93 66 97 / 40 10 10 10 0
TULIA 81 64 92 67 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 83 64 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 86 65 94 68 97 / 40 10 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 86 66 93 69 96 / 40 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 89 65 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 89 66 93 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 86 69 95 71 99 / 40 10 10 10 0
SPUR 87 69 95 70 98 / 40 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 96 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
530 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE PANHANDLES TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
939 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 AM PDT THURSDAY...DRAMATIC COOLING TREND
UNDERWAY THIS MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. YESTERDAY SAW
WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S. BY THIS
AFTERNOON SOME OF THE EAST BAY VALLEYS THAT WERE AROUND 95 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...REPRESENTING A
NEARLY 30 DEGREE COOLING TREND OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE DRAMATIC
ONSHORE PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS NOW RAMPED UP TO 2500 FEET WITH
HILLSIDE LOCATIONS THAT ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY REPORTING
DREARY CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 5.0 MB THIS AFTERNOON WILL MEAN LITTLE
OR NO CLEARING FOR THE COAST AND CLOUDS COULD HANG IN THE BAY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ALONG WITH THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL HOWL INTO THE DELTA AND UP IN THE HILLS OF THE
EAST BAY. AT THIS HOUR ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR HILLS OF MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTY ARE PROTECTED FROM THIS MARINE PUSH WITH TEMPS
ALREADY PUSHING 80.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A 2500-3000 FOOT CLOUD DECK WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PLAN ON UPDATING FORECAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SHOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF SONOMA COUNTY
WITH DRIZZLE LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS ON FRIDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
EVEN BY BAY AREA STANDARDS THE OFFICIAL START TO SUMMER WILL BE
OFF TO A COOL START...ESPECIALLY INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS BAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS INLAND INTRUSION. ALMOST
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STRATUS...AS THE MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOW AROUND 2000 FEET. LATE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP SOUTH AROUND THE SF BAY TOWARD
KSFO...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND A SOLID STRATUS DECK OFFSHORE...A LATE CLEARING
AROUND 20Z IS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS CLEARING
TIME BECAUSE THE NAM IS FORECASTING AN ALL DAY EVENT...WHILE THE
GFS AND WRF INDICATE CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF
THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO INDICATED A LATE
CLEARING...SO WENT WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS GIVEN THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MARINE LAYER.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR TO
IFR CIGS THAN THE TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRED TODAY AT 4:09 PM PDT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 90S
WITHIN VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AS DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO REACH DOWNWARD.
HAVE MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100
DEGREES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER
ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL
THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LFC/S WILL MITIGATE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW
BEGINNING TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF
TONIGHT...AND A STRONGER CDFNT FRI.
RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY
FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH
00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL
AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND
NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND
2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING
TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI.
THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO
NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR
SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE. IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE
PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES
ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI FM SVT TO WCATSKILLS...PUSHING
SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL
WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA
FRI.
GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.
SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN
GENERAL TSTMS.
BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG
S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT
FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH
SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST
CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY
FRI.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL
DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S
HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...GOOD
VISIBILITY...THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AT
KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND THE SKY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DIMINISHING WIND MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME MVFR BR/HZ AT ALL THE TAFS OTHER THAN KALB OVERNIGHT. AT
KALB...ENOUGH OF A WNW BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.
THERE IS CHANCE OF IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BUT WE FEEL THE THREAT IS
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME SO DID NOT PLACE ANY IFR IN THOSE
TAFS.
ANY BR/HZ SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. AFTER THAT...WE ARE EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE BUT THE THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW THROUGH MIDDAY AT OUR TAF
SITES SO DID NOT MENTION THEM IN OUR TAFS. THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS. (AFTER 18Z).
PLEASE REFER BACK TO OUR DISCUSSION/TAF FORECAST IF YOU ARE FLYING
LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA MAINLY KGFL.
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. CIG. CHC SUB-VFR CHC RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE
FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN
35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.
ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH
OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW
RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES
FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95
DEGREES FROM 1953.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY...WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 90S
WITHIN VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AS DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO REACH DOWNWARD.
HAVE MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
STILL BELIEVE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100
DEGREES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY. HOWEVER
ITS TRACK RECORD OF LATE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR. WE JUST FEEL
THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND ELEVATED LFC/S WILL MITIGATE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW
BEGINNING TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF
TONIGHT...AND A STRONGER CDFNT FRI.
RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY
FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH
00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C...WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL
AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION...BUT NOT ALOT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND
NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND
2000+ IN SE...WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE...BUT FALLING
TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI.
THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO
NIL...AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR
SE...ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE. IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE
PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL IN S TIER THU NT...AND FIRES
ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI FM SVT TO WCATSKILLS...PUSHING
SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER SIGNAL THU NT...AS DOES LOCAL
WRF...THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA
FRI.
GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.
SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI...AND ENTIRE AREA IN
GENERAL TSTMS.
BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG
S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING...AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT
FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA...WHERE THEY MAY REACH
SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST
CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE...AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY
FRI.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY...TD WILL
DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS...IN FAR S
HUD VLY...FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500HPA AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER RGN TDY. VFR CONDS TODAY WITH WINDS
BCMG NW-W 10KTS....GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
WITH WARM TEMPS IN MID LEVELS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER AND ISOLD TSTM COULD FIRE TWRD EVENING IN
CATSKILLS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TNGT AS WELL WITH NR CALM WINDS
AND AREAS OF MVFR HZ AND BR LATE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. KALB/KPSF...SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA/-TSRA. SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE
FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN
35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.
ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH
OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW
RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES
FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 95
DEGREES FROM 1953.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...MOST OF AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE ERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
WL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST. KAPF WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE, DECIDED
TO KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SE
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KNOTS, BUT INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 8-10
KNOTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ENSURE AN
INCREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL EXPECT
MOST OF IT ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...
THE SKIES THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS IS
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
AND THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 60 TO 70
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER COMPARE TO YESTERDAY...DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CWA. SO HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER REST OF THE
CWA.
THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS. SO WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHRA MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING
THE E COAST. VFR EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL IF A SHRA
CROSSES OVER ANY TERMINAL. POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT INLAND AFT 16Z
BUT THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL W OF E COAST TERMINALS SO NOT IN
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WILL BE. CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS E-ESE
< 10 KTS BECOMING 12-15 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH 22/22Z. AT KAPF...VFR
FOR THE MOST PART BUT SHRA CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MAY MOVE OVER TERMINAL
TIL 14Z WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY IN SHRA. AFT 14Z VFR WITH VCSH THEN VCTS
AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIG/VSBY BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS E LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING 10-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...IT WILL TAKE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH IT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO TRAIN INTO THE REGION FROM A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT EVOLVES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
INUNDATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF ALSO TRACKS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND IS A
MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION DEEPENING IT TO 568 DAM LOW BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND THE CEDAR KEY AREA NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. TOOK
MORE OF A CONSENSUS FOR NOW AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...A GENERALLY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 83 76 85 / 30 50 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 85 77 83 / 40 50 40 60
MIAMI 76 86 76 82 / 40 50 40 60
NAPLES 75 84 77 84 / 60 50 40 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT NEARLY HALF THE WAY ACROSS THE
CWA...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 10 AM.
UNFORTUNATELY THE BADLY NEEDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSED. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE CAP...AND LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. A GOOD
PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMING OUT OF IOWA SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
STEADY OUT OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER
90S BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THAT FAR.
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/GRIDS TO UPDATE THE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED ALL OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A KCMI-KBLV LINE. HAVE BEEN
SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT KCMI...AS LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT BY 18Z TO PRECLUDE MENTION ELSEWHERE.
HAVE HAD SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT
THIS MORNING...BUT LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOWEST
CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR RANGE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISSUED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST EVENING HAS BEEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. HRRR AND 06Z NAM CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCES ONLY ACROSS THE E/SE KILX
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR TAF CYCLE ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 10-15 KTS
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. A FEW OR SCTRD CU AT
3-4K FT AGL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ..12..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 07Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOST PART OF THE CWA. LINGERING AND DECAYING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH DRIER WEATHER ALREADY
MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED AHEAD
OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL RAP AND HRRR...ALONG WITH 00Z MODELS AGREE IN
CONTINUING THE TREND IN WEAKENING THE SHOWERS AND MOVING THEM
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS.
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THOUGH COOLER
TEMPS ARE IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AS A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ONE
NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON
THE POSITION OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CWFA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS.
AT SUNRISE SATURDAY THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF THE
NOCTURNAL MCS. CONCEPTUALLY AND INTERNALLY FROM THE MODELS THIS MCS
SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NOT
FAR NORTH OF THE SD/NE BORDER. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE MCS SHOULD
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KFSD OR NORTHWEST IOWA. MCS AND LIFT TOOLS
ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THE MCS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MCS WOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THE
LLJ WEAKENS AND IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED. THUS RAINFALL
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS MORE SHRA THAN TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN INITIALLY.
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE TSRA.
WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONT/BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT/BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
SUNDAY ON...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA AT SUNRISE SUNDAY SHOULD
END DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS NEAR
MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD BE AT
OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 08
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE AREA. WILL HANG
ONTO THE ISOLATED POPS A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE ASSESSING HOW LONG
OF A LULL THERE WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IF NOT
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A
POTENTIAL RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARDS DAWN AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE LATEST SREF HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
SCENARIO. FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE HOURLIES TO MATCH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT
APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH
ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT
AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR
THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. AT
THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON
MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID
WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. SOME
MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
AT ANY LOCATIONS THAT MANAGED TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR AT BOTH LOZ AND SME FOR NOW TOWARDS DAWN. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AT THE
TAF SITES DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
309 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH POINT TOWARDS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF...THE 15Z HRRR AND THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM. IT
APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THE OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING INTO KY TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFIRE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL NEED TO CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SMALLEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FEATURE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EACH
ONE IS PRODUCING TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT WETTER TO START...AS IT MOVES AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE ECMWF WASHES THE FRONT OUT ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT
AFTER THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR DAYS 3-7. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND...LEFT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE MODELS BOTH STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LOWERED...HOWEVER...ACCOUNTING FOR
THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECWMF MODEL. AT
THIS TIME THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE ON
MONDAY. THE RAINFALL...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
ELEMENTS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE HERE AND THERE...BUT ALL IN ALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. THE HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID
WEEK...ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA...DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW AIR MASS MODIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT EASTERN KY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAFS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES AT
SME AND LOZ BEING REDUCED TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CONVECTION WITH THIS WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AREAS FROM JKL
SOUTHWESTWARD BEING LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT
WILL NOT CARRY ANY THUNDER IN TAFS...BUT ONLY INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING
FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AS THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS
SUNDAY NIGHT...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING
POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST
INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE
CDFNT. PREV BLO...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ARE ON BOARD WITH PERSISTENT LARGE COOL
UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AREA...EVEN
THOUGH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL LOBES DIFFER. ALSO...ECMWF IS
TENDING TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE VICINITY BY
LATEWEEK...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH INSTEAD SHIFTS IT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...COOL TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL /ESPECIALLY NORTH/.
A PREFRONTAL WAVE...MARKED IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
GFS/ECWMF...WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
COLD FROPA INTO MONDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...UPGRADED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THAT PERIOD. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER AS WELL...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. BEYOND
THEN...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. DIURNAL HEATING IN TANDEM
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DRIVE STEEP LAPSE RATES EACH
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HARNESSING YET- TO-BE- RESOLVED WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED -TSRA KELM/KBGM
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT AND THUS NOT IN
TAF. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE CAPPED...INHIBITING
CONVECTION...WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS READY TO EAT UP
ANY SHOWER THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP. TONIGHT...INITIALLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME VALLEY FOG TRYING TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY KELM AND TO LESSER DEGREE KAVP. HOWEVER...INBOUND
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT /AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AHEAD OF FRONT/...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...APPEARS LIKELY TO HALT FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE
OF SOME IFR WILL BE FOR KELM FOR A TIME...BEFORE INCOMING FRONT
KILLS IT. LOOKING FOR DECK OF CLOUDS AT 5-6 KFT WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TSRA WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST OF KBGM-KRME LINE...WITH BEST CHANCE KAVP
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AS FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
LATE FRI THROUGH SUN...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NGT TO MON...CHC MVFR WITH SHOWERY COLD FRONT.
MON NGT THRU TUE...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MAINLY DAYTIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1241 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AS THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS
SUNDAY NIGHT...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1155 AM UPDATE...FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING RAISING
POPS TO LIKELY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA ON FRI AS MDLS SUGGEST
INTERACTION BETWEEN SRN STREAM S/WV CRNTLY MOVG INTO IL...AND THE
CDFNT. PREV BLO...
850 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS WILL BE MADE (OTHER THAN MINOR T/TD TWEEKS)
TO THE CRNT FCST. SFC ANYLS SHOWS SFC RDG XTNDG FROM CNTRL NY INTO
WRN PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC WIND/VORT DATA DOES SHOW A
WEAK S/WV OVER ERN OH WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE RGN THIS
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...DIFFERENT SCENARIOS W/RESPECT TO THIS AFTN`S
POTNL INSTABILITY. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT/BUF SNDGS USING A
LIFTED "MEAN" PARCEL WTIH SFC T/TD OF 92/64 RESULTED IN CAPES OF
600-800 J/KG. MESO MDLS SPLIT ON ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH
SOME SHOWING ISOLD SCT ACTIVITY WITH OTHERS SHOWING NO CONVECTION
AT ALL. PREV FCST INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTN AND
GIVEN THE ABV WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS. TD`S WILL BE A FEW DEG LOWER
THAN YDA AND HEAT INDICES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO ADVISORY CRITIERIA.
PREV BLO...
645 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY OR BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
345 AM UPDATE...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TRANSLATING INTO HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE
90S. DEW POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE...OR JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 OR BETTER). SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR) AND THE NAM...INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA...WITH THE THREAT SLIDING DUE EAST
THROUGH 0Z. ON FIRST GLANCE WITH THE CAP STILL EVIDENT ON THE 0Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AROUND 850MB...AND OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 588 DM RIDGE...FELT THE QPF WAS OVERDONE ON THESE MODELS.
HOWEVER ON CLOSER INSPECTION HEIGHTS DO LOWER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST. AT THIS HOUR WE SEE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE
(CLOUDS) AND SOME LIFT MECHANISMS (VORTICITY) OVER EASTERN
OH/KY/TN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THESE AREAS DID SEE SOME STORMS TODAY AND FEEL ITS REASONABLE THAT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE RETURN FLOW MAY
BRING US A FEW UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY
AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
AROUND 25KTS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPED POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATE TONIGHT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR TIMING
(COOLEST PART OF THE DAY) WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF US DRY TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...BUT LIMP THROUGH NEPA TOWARD EVENING. WITH THIS
SLOWER PROGRESSION FARTHER SOUTH...OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NY/PA LINE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS INCREASING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...WITH THE GREATER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR T-STORMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES THROUGH. EVEN HERE THOUGH PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY AND MOST
OF THE DAY WILL END UP BEING DRY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. ECWMF AND GFS ARE ON BOARD WITH PERSISTENT LARGE COOL
UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AREA...EVEN
THOUGH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL LOBES DIFFER. ALSO...ECMWF IS
TENDING TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE VICINITY BY
LATEWEEK...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH INSTEAD SHIFTS IT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...COOL TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL /ESPECIALLY NORTH/.
A PREFRONTAL WAVE...MARKED IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
GFS/ECWMF...WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
COLD FROPA INTO MONDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...UPGRADED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY RANGE DURING THAT PERIOD. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER AS WELL...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. BEYOND
THEN...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. DIURNAL HEATING IN TANDEM
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DRIVE STEEP LAPSE RATES EACH
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HARNESSING YET- TO-BE- RESOLVED WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES OVHD WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE
AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PD. HTG TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME
ISLTD LATE DAY CONV...BUT NOT ENUF CVRG TO MENTION IN THE TAF
ATTM. LATE IN THE PD...AS THE FNT APRCHS...CHANCE FOR SHWRS IN THE
NRN SITES...BUT MODEL FRCST SHOWS THE CONV WEAKENING SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY TRWS. IN SUMMARY,,,VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD XCPT
BRIEF MVFR PSBL IN VERY ISLTD CONV.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN TO MON...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
JUNE 21
FORECAST ACTUAL RECORD
SYRACUSE.....93.......98 IN 1953
BINGHAMTON...91.......93 IN 1953
AVOCA........95.......96 IN 1953/1931/1923
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM EAST TODAY. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE CWA
AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EAST OF THE RALEIGH AREA AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADD A SMALL POP TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY
AS WHAT INSTABILITY WE DO HAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THU...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MID
WEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS ERN NC WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AND ANY PCPN REMAINING WELL NW OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE PRODUCING SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND 68-73 INLAND AND MAINLY M70S
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THU...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE NE US. THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS
POINT WITH THE GFS AND SREF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM HANGS IT UP AND THE ECMWF BASICALLY
DISSIPATES IT OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW IN THE GULF WHICH COULD TRACK ACROSS FL AND OFF THE SE COAST
SOME TIME NEXT WEEK. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STUCK WITH CONSISTENCY/HPC
BLEND FOR EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA AND
UPPER TROUGHING...AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH...CAN`T
RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND...BEYOND THAT TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE
WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE INLAND AND LOWS 65 TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TAF SITES.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT KOAJ
AND SOME POSSIBLE MVFR HAZE AT KISO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KEWN
FOR POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SMOKE LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS AS
IF THE FIRE WILL BE WELL ENOUGH VENTILATED THAT THIS WILL NOT BE
OF AS MUCH CONCERN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THU...PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TROUGHING
DEVELOPS IN THE WEST...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS LINGERING SMOKE FROM CROATAN FOREST FIRE. GIVEN CURRENT SMOKE
TRENDS EXPECT WORST CONDITIONS TO BE LIMITED TO VICINITY OF THE
FIRE...WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AWAY
FROM CRAVEN COUNTY. THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING OF FIRE
CONDITIONS...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE MIDDLE
LEGS. RUC13 SHOWS THAT SOME GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS
CONTINUE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS.
/LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THU...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY SLOWLY DISSIPATING.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SAT...WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN COASTAL WATERS. AS DISCUSSED
IN LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FAVORED HPC GUIDANCE/CONSISTENCY IN
FORECAST FOR WINDS/SEAS WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING AS
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE
GULF ACROSS FLORIDA. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CTC/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
219 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
ALLOWING A DELAYED BUT NOTABLE WARM UP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND MODERATE TO DEEP
CUMULUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/FORECAST AREA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...
BUT THE STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE DEPICTED AROUND 18Z...WHICH HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE. HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED POPS FROM THE 40-50 PERCENT
RANGE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KAMA...
WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KGUY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT BACKING WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KAMA...
WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KGUY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT BACKING WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING...AND ARE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST
TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND
REDUCED AFTERNOON MAXIMA A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU WRF-NAM...SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.....SO CURRENT POPS
REMAIN VALID.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING...AND ARE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST
TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND
REDUCED AFTERNOON MAXIMA A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU WRF-NAM...SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.....SO CURRENT POPS
REMAIN VALID.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE PANHANDLES TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF HEREFORD TO NEAR CANYON TO
SOUTH OF CANADIAN AT 4 AM. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LATE LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...INCLUDING A 40 KT NORTHEASTERLY LLJ PER
THE KDDC VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS...WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. TO THE
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR US
OVER THE COMING DAYS WAS SPRAWLED NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY FADE LATER THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DISSIPATES AS UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...AND NORTHEASTERLY LLJ WEAKENS. GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CAPPING A LITTLE
WEAKER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST/NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS.
AFTER TODAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT BAY...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STAYING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. WARM TEMPS ALOFT...AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINED BY A LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER TODAY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKING HOLD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...WHICH
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY GREEN FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND SE LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A FLATTENED UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED BY
LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE CU
LOOKS RATHER AGITATED OVER MINNESOTA WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE
FORMING...SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE JUST
WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE FROM LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SPREAD MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH SATURATION OR INSTABILITY FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO A DRY
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 73-74F ELSEWHERE WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED
ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 15-16Z OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ML CAPES OF 600 J/KG AND INVERTED V SOUNDING
IN THE BL SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CAPES ARE RATHER SKINNY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...SO
THINK WILL ONLY MENTION DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE HWO. SOME
STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING EAST AFTER 21Z AS FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO
MICHIGAN. DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVES BY AND A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM CANADA. PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS HUDSON BAY HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO BKN CIGS...POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH...SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS IMPACTING
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/RDM