Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/19/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY IS
WEST TO NW AND THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING WIND
GUSTS THAT ARE MEETING CRITERIA FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING...AS ARE
THE RH VALUES. ON MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AS AN UPR TROF MOVING INTO WRN MT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS
OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL AGAIN REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...AS WILL THE MIN RH VALUES. THUS WL UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NSSL 4KM WRF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE CONVECTION NR THE SRN BORDER THRU ABOUT 00Z. HAVE
SEE A FEW ECHOES IN THE OK PANHANDLE...BUT WL KEEP POPS LESS THAN 15
PERCENT ALONG THE SRN BORDER FOR THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. H7 TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 17C-21C. TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103...WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE MID AND UPR 80S. THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS MON IS 96...FOR
PUEBLO IS 104 AND FOR ALAMOSA IS 90. /28
.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
...CONTINUED HOT AND DRY...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...A TYPICAL
PRE-MONSOONAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE ROCKIES. TUE SHOULD BE THE
LAST DAY OF POTENTIAL RECORD-BREAKING HEAT...AS H7 TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 18-20 DEG C RANGE. FIRE WX DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ON TUE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
ON TUE...AND THAT WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG STATUS. THE NAM 12KM
SUGGESTS A FAIRLY BROAD LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVR THE AREA...AND
THE STRONGEST SFC GRADIENT WILL BE OVER W KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE.
THIS COULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT E OF THE MTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
STRONG JET TO OUR N...AND WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECT SOME STRONGER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WINDS SHOULD
STILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON MON...HOWEVER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WX
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY WED...AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
DRAMATICALLY ON WED AS H7 TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW 10 DEG C. COULD EVEN
SEE SOME UPPR 70S ON WED OVR THE PLAINS...FOR A PLEASANT REPRISE
FROM THE HEAT. THE PLEASANTRY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A
TROUGH RELOADS ON THE W COAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
DRY AND HOT W-SW FLOW RESUMES. TEMPS COULD EASILY BE BACK INTO THE
UPPR 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE GENERALLY LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION
THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE TAP LOOKS
MODEST AT BEST. DOG DAYS OF SUMMER APPEAR TO BE WITH US UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KALS THRU ABOUT
01Z. KPUB AND KCOS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS THRU
ABOUT 01Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 15-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ064-220>225.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ064-
220>225.
&&
$$
28/44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1149 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK AS GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND HIGH VALLEYS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGHS ON TRACK WITH READINGS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY THE TREND OF 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD HOLD. DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ALONG WITH NO APPARENT LIFTING MECHANISM SHOULD LEAVE ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY
DUE IN LARGE PART TO JET STREAM DROPPING DOWN OVER PACNW. NO
SHORTWAVES ARE IN THIS FLOW YET SO TODAY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS DEEP MIXING ALSO OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING ABOUT 500MB OR SO. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
MUCH OF THE WEEK...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THOUGH WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FOR AREAS
SOUTH. AS SUCH...THE RED FLAG WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD SO
NO CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.
BY TONIGHT...A PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SINKS SWRD INTO THE NWRN STATES WHILE
OVERALL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE GRT BASIN. THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAUSING FWX CONCERNS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHIFT EWRD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY WHILE
THE TROF CONTINUES TO DIG FURTHER SWRD INTO THE GRT BASIN. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE JET SAGS SWRD INTO EXTREME NWRN UT AND CNTRL WY.
THIS CONTINUES TO RAISE FIRE CONCERNS AS DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT TO TRANSFER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE PRODUCING WIDE
SPREAD CRITICAL FWX CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A TROF OVER THE
WEST. ONE NOTABLE ITEM IS THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF MOVES EWRD TOWARD NE UT AND WRN WY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE TROF AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT EWRD TUESDAY AND WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE UT/CO BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SFC FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND BECOME PRETTY DIFFUSE BEFORE
ENTERING OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY PULLS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. TROF PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THOUGH HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER OR SO.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE DESERT SW
BUMPING THOSE HIGH TEMPS BACK TO THE MID-90S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION. THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SOME MOISTURE FINALLY GETS ENTRAINED FROM THE
SOUTH...ACCORDING TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...ALBEIT STILL ON
THE LOW SIDE. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE PACNW WILL ALSO CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN.
DEEP MIXING WILL STILL BE OCCURRING DAILY SO SOME STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY POSSIBLY
CAUSING SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
VERY ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM OVER THE DIVIDE FRIDAY BUT
AGAIN...ALL DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. EXPECT SIMILAR
WIND...AND SLT CHC FOR RAIN...ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH IN MANY
AREAS INCLUDING THE FORECAST TERMINALS. SOME MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND IN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE
LINES AS IS LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE VALLEYS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DENSE SMOKE NEAR THE LITTLE
SAND FIRE TO THE NW OF PAGOSA SPRINGS. VIS MAY DROP IN AND AROUND
THE FIRE TO MVFR...IF NOT IFR CONDITIONS FROM MID ELEVATIONS DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH MID
MORNING HOURS WHEN VENTILATION IS POOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. A FEW
RAWS SITES WERE ALREADY HITTING CRITERIA IN THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAUS AT 11 AM. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY. INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A LOCAL MINIMA DEVELOPING FOR ZONES 290/292. NOT
SURE WHY GUSTS WOULD LESSEN DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SO
DISCOUNTED THIS.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR MONDAY WITH BONE DRY CONDITIONS
AND HOT TEMPS FOR DEEP MIXING TO TAP STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SW CO MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY HELP STIR THINGS UP DESPITE WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. STILL QUESTIONS
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW ON
TUESDAY. AN INITIAL PEEK AT THE 12Z NAM/GFS LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW CO. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290>293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ481>487.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ481>487.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR/MC
LONG TERM...TGR/MC
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...CLOUDS REFORMING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT. THEREFORE USED THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT FASTER DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...PUSHED THE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH
INTO MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK BASED ON CURRENT CLOUDS.
SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN A LITTLE EARLIER AND MORE
EXTENSIVELY...TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHTS A LITTLE UPWARD SINCE THE
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT WHATEVER HEAT FROM ESCAPING. ALSO...WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS BEGUN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
MEANWHILE...ONE MCS LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT
EITHER WAY WILL COMPLETELY MISS OUR REGION BY DIVING WAY SOUTH OF
IT.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS
MICHIGAN...THAT LOOKS TO TRACK MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMPLEX WAS
ALSO MOVING INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR...BUT ALSO IS MOVING INTO A
REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS COMPLEX GETTING
TO OUR DOORSTEP BY AROUND 600 AM...IN MUCH WEAKEN FORM. OUR GRIDS
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE BY 700 AM SO NEED TO CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...PARTLY CLOUDY FAR
NORTH. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 15 MPH LOCALLY AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE A
REDUCTION IN WIND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 IN MOST
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW OR MID 80S. STILL SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...SO HIGHS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION AND SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THEY WILL ALSO BRING THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE
SEASON TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY A VERY WARM AIR MASS ON
THURSDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES C...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS. THE ONE THING
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING RECORD TERRITORY /THE RECORD FOR
ALBANY FOR THURSDAY JUNE 21ST IS 97 FROM 1938/ IS THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUDS AROUND FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH OF A STRONG SW FLOW TO DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS TO REALLY GET TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S. WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...WE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POPS FOR THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS SHOWS THE
ACTIVITY TO BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AND NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED...SO WILL
ONLY KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...WE
WILL MENTION THUNDER...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. WE WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER AS SOME DRIER
AIR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH VALUES 10-16 DEGREES C. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WED/THURS. MOST AREAS
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S.
FINALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH JUST
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS A WARM FRONT FROM A
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HINTED THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD CUT OFF OVER THE REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE FOR MONDAY AS WELL.
WITH THE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP AND LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUN/MON...WITH
GENERALLY 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...VFR STRATO-CU CLOUDS HAVE ROLLED BACK INTO KALB JUST
BEFORE THE 00Z TAF RELEASE. THEY WILL BE SCT-BKN THROUGH THE EVENING.
VFR CLOUDS AT KPOU BUT SO FAR...SKC-SCT AT KPSF AND KGFL.
AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CONTINUED TRAPPED
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIURNAL COOLING...WE EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS AROUND
OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BELOW 2000 FEET. WE CONTINUE THE IDEA
OF IFR AT KPSF....BELOW THEIR 1000 FT THRESHOLD. THE CLOUD LAYER IS
FORECASTED TO BREAK AT OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING PEAK...HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH THE DISCUSSION AND OR
TAF FORECASTS IF YOU PLAN TO FLY EARLY OUT OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES.
THE WIND THROUGH WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BEAT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE AT
THE OTHER TAF SITES. DUE DO THE CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF BREEZE...NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY REAL FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE WIND PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH TO AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING CLOSER TO 20 KTS AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MIGHT SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
LATER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH (<25
PERCENT) TO NOT EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE AFTN AND AT NIGHT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA KALB/KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA AT
KPOU/KPSF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL RECOVERY TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100
PERCENT. MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 PERCENT...THEN RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 18...97 SET IN 1957
JUNE 19...94 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20...97 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 18...93 SET IN 1994
JUNE 19...97 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20...94 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 18...93 SET IN 1957
JUNE 19...91 SET IN 1957
JUNE 20...95 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
CLIMATE...IAA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
204 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR PICTURE TO THE
ONE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY AND A
LARGE ATLANTIC TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SPINNING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. OUR POSITION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS HAS BEEN NOTED IN WV THIS MORNING WITHIN THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW...THE OVERALL COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE MEASURED A PW VALUE OF AROUND AN INCH. THIS VALUE IS ONLY
AROUND 65% OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JUNE. THE DRIER AIR IS PROVIDING
FOR AN OVERALL HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH
700-500MB THETA-E VALUES MEASURED BETWEEN 316-319K. TYPICAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION RUN
BETWEEN 323-329K.
AT THE SURFACE...1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.
THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT RESULTING IN A BREEZY E/NE FLOW. THIS
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW ONLY 1500-2000 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE HOLDS EAST AT 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY WEAK
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION PINNED AT THE BEACHES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY - TUESDAY)...
WITH LITTLE TO NO INLAND PENETRATION OF ANY FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE...
COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THROUGH MID EVENING SHOULD BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. STILL CAN NEVER
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
COAST WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...ANY CELLS THAT DO
TRY TO DEVELOP WILL ENCOUNTER AND ENTRAIN THE UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL
AIR...AND LIKELY DECAY RAPIDLY. CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
15-20% POP IN THE GRIDS STARTING AFTER 18Z...AND FEEL THIS SHOULD
HANDLE THE SITUATION.
ANY ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AFTER 00-02Z. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL. ONCE AGAIN MANY INLAND
SPOTS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UNSEASONABLE DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE JUNE WILL BE THE RULE DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME ALLOWING HEIGHT RISES/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN AS HOSTILE IF NOT MORE
HOSTILE THAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
ADDED SUPPRESSION FORM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THETA-E VALUES
BETWEEN 700-600MB ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SOME
GUIDANCE MEMBERS DROPPING VALUES BELOW 315K. INHERITED FORECAST FROM
LAST NIGHT SHOWED ONLY SILENT 10% RAIN CHANCES IN THE GRIDS...AND
SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AN ISOLATED CELL
OR 2 IS LIKELY TO TAKE ROOT SOMEWHERE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER
90S...HOWEVER A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP
DEWPOINT IN A "COMFORTABLE" RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MODERATION
TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A STRONG U/L TROUGH IN THE MAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. RIDES OVER AND SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THE U/L RIDE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. GFS AND ECMWF COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING OVER THE SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE U/L RIDGE
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS HOW LONG WILL
THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HIGH SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM AND DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY APPROACH 35 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 90 72 92 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 68 91 70 92 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 69 91 71 93 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 66 91 66 91 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 75 90 74 91 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1150 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR PICTURE TO THE
ONE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY AND A
LARGE ATLANTIC TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SPINNING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. OUR POSITION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS HAS BEEN NOTED IN WV THIS MORNING WITHIN THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW...THE OVERALL COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE MEASURED A PW VALUE OF AROUND AN INCH. THIS VALUE IS ONLY
AROUND 65% OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JUNE. THE DRIER AIR IS PROVIDING
FOR AN OVERALL HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH
700-500MB THETA-E VALUES MEASURED BETWEEN 316-319K. TYPICAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION RUN
BETWEEN 323-329K.
AT THE SURFACE...1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.
THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT RESULTING IN A BREEZY E/NE FLOW. THIS
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW ONLY 1500-2000 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE HOLDS EAST AT 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY WEAK
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION PINNED AT THE BEACHES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE.
WITH LITTLE TO NO INLAND PENETRATION OF ANY FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE...
COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE SOME
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED IN SEVERAL
HOURS. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...ANY CELLS THAT DO TRY TO DEVELOP WILL
ENCOUNTER AND ENTRAIN THE UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...AND LIKELY
DECAY RAPIDLY. CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE 15-20% POP IN THE
GRIDS STARTING AFTER 18Z...AND FEEL THIS SHOULD HANDLE THE SITUATION.
ANY ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AFTER 00-02Z. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL. ONCE AGAIN MANY INLAND
SPOTS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE A
PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON!
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY SURGE COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH NE AND
EAST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE UP COMING WEEK...
WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS OFFSHORE. THE LOCATION OF THIS HIGH WILL
RESULT IN NOCTURNAL EASTERLY WIND SURGES DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
AND MOST LIKELY REQUIRE CAUTION HEADLINES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 71 90 72 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 91 70 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
GIF 91 69 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 92 70 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 90 64 91 66 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 90 75 88 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
904 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...A VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
ARCO DESERT AND FOOTHILLS LEADING INTO DUBOIS AND ASHTON AREA THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN WAS EXPIRED IN FAVOR OF KEEPING A WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST PER WV SAT IMAGERY. CU FIELD SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WEAK STRATOCU FIELD HAS
PUSHED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS TODAY WHICH HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL MIXING. THUS
THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS
THE ARCO DESERT HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY.
WINDS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WARNED AREA SHOULD INCREASE AS CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. HRRR MODEL INDICATES PEAK SPEEDS OCCURING BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWIFT DROPOFF DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
TROUGH AXIS KICKS PAST EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING BUT LEAVES BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PACNW. SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH TROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT JET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH SO WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN. LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY BUT WILL LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS AFTER CURRENT WIND EVENT
IS OVER.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF PACNW COAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS CENTER
OF UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND...LEAVING
EASTERN IDAHO ON THE FRINGE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH
DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED RANGE. OVERALL MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST. DMH
AVIATION...THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE LATE
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. ANY REAL THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MONTANA
AND WYOMING BORDERS. KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO MONTANA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOSER TO
THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN JUST THE
MONTANA BORDER TUESDAY. THE STORY IS THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE WINDS
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF ZONES 409/410/411/412 ARE STILL
VALID THROUGH 9PM. WE WILL LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW BUT NO
RED FLAG ISSUES AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP DESPITE GUSTY WINDS.
MIDWEEK WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WE WILL
SEE RAPID DRYING EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO EXPECT POOR
NIGHTTIME RECOVERY AT RIDGETOP. WHILE MORE PRECISE DETAILS ON WHERE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FORMING BY THE WEEKEND...IT
DOES APPEAR A DISTINCT PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHWEST/MONSOON FLOW
IS COMING. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM MDT TUESDAY IDZ410-411.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM MDT TUESDAY IDZ409-412.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 6500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A FEW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO LOITER ACROSS THE AREA FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS
MORE OF A DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY...IS FROM QUINCY TO THE NORTHEAST
TIP OF ILLINOIS. HAD SOME LOW CLOUDS FORM IN THE RAINIER AREAS
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THEM LINGERING FROM AROUND PEORIA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-70 ALSO SEEING QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDS BELOW 1500 FEET.
MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT.
LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING ANY CUMULUS. RAP...HRRR AND
NAM MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT IN AN AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS POOL IN
THE LOWER 70S...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. BULK OF THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH...WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RISE. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1213 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING EAST OF A KBMI-KDEC LINE AT MIDDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY EROSION AS AN
AREA OF DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. KCMI
MOST LIKELY TO SEE CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
LATEST NAM MODEL SHOWING LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT JUST
TO OUR WEST. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS
POTENTIAL TOWARD SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT BORDERLINE IN OUR
AREA. WILL SEE THESE WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON
MONDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MCS WEAKENING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 51. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MO INTO SW IL SOUTH OF I-64 AND WEST OF I-57.
MCS WAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PRESSING SE INTO SE WI AND FAR NW IL.
MUGGY DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SE IL.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTION CHANCES
TODAY AND LESS CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED
20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST IL AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING AND WEAKENS INTO
SE IL THIS AFTERNOON. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT RISK
OVER SE IL TODAY...WITH 5% AREA SE OF I-70 FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET MAINLY DUE TO SOME
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES PEAKING NEAR 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH TONIGHT HAS LIMITED LIFT ALONG
IT SO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY WITH LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 90F AND STAYING
HUMID IN SE IL WHILE BECOMING LESS HUMID OVER CENTRAL IL BEHIND
THE FRONT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS
MON THROUGH WED TO RETURN HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL AND SE IL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. STORM TRACK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
IL DURING THIS TIME OVER MN AND CENTRAL AND NW PARTS OF IA/WI.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS WORK WEEK
ESPECIALLY MON WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HAVE SSW WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MON AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NE INTO ONTARIO WED NIGHT/THURSDAY TO DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SE INTO IL THU. THIS TO RETURN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY. TEMPS
COOL BACK TO NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FRI/SAT. BUT SOME MODELS LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING BACK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY NEXT SUNDAY
WHICH WOULD RETURNING HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1013 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A FEW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO LOITER ACROSS THE AREA FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS
MORE OF A DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY...IS FROM QUINCY TO THE NORTHEAST
TIP OF ILLINOIS. HAD SOME LOW CLOUDS FORM IN THE RAINIER AREAS
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THEM LINGERING FROM AROUND PEORIA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-70 ALSO SEEING QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDS BELOW 1500 FEET.
MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT.
LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING ANY CUMULUS. RAP...HRRR AND
NAM MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT IN AN AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS POOL IN
THE LOWER 70S...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. BULK OF THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH...WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RISE. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KPIA AND KBMI FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AFTER 14Z. AFTER THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WITH MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...CU-RULE
SUGGESTS SCT CU AT AROUND 4000FT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
WELL...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE FROM THE W/SW AT AROUND 10KT TODAY...THEN WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MCS WEAKENING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 51. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MO INTO SW IL SOUTH OF I-64 AND WEST OF I-57.
MCS WAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PRESSING SE INTO SE WI AND FAR NW IL.
MUGGY DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SE IL.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTION CHANCES
TODAY AND LESS CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED
20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST IL AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING AND WEAKENS INTO
SE IL THIS AFTERNOON. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT RISK
OVER SE IL TODAY...WITH 5% AREA SE OF I-70 FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET MAINLY DUE TO SOME
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES PEAKING NEAR 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH TONIGHT HAS LIMITED LIFT ALONG
IT SO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY WITH LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 90F AND STAYING
HUMID IN SE IL WHILE BECOMING LESS HUMID OVER CENTRAL IL BEHIND
THE FRONT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS
MON THROUGH WED TO RETURN HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL AND SE IL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. STORM TRACK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
IL DURING THIS TIME OVER MN AND CENTRAL AND NW PARTS OF IA/WI.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS WORK WEEK
ESPECIALLY MON WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HAVE SSW WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MON AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NE INTO ONTARIO WED NIGHT/THURSDAY TO DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SE INTO IL THU. THIS TO RETURN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY. TEMPS
COOL BACK TO NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FRI/SAT. BUT SOME MODELS LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING BACK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY NEXT SUNDAY
WHICH WOULD RETURNING HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
947 PM CDT
HAVE CLEARED ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT CINH IS IN PLACE TO PREVENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-80. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE COOK
COUNTY IN THE WATCH SINCE SOME STRONGER CELLS IN NORTHWEST WILL
COUNTY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINS. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE SEVERE THREAT ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS PREVIOUS STORMS AND OUTFLOW HAVE
LIKELY RESULTED IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. WILL HANG ON TO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS THOUGH AS THERE IS STILL
SOME STRONG STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION. IF CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
IZZI
&&
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
515 PM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.
A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.
ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE.
* TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AT TIMES.
* VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
INTENSITY...WITH TRAILING AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL AIR SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...WITH EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IN FAR SE IA. EXPECT THAT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES PRIOR TO 12Z...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
VISIBILITY MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY AS
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE FAIRLY LOW. CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR POINTS TO ANY MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF RAIN BEING
BRIEF AND SEE NO REASON THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING DAYBREAK. THESE WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES PAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 500
FT TO 2000 FT LAYER WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IFR CIGS...THOUGH DURATION IS LIKELY
TO BE BRIEF IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
AFTER.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SSW WINDS G35KT. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHC TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR JUNE...WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. A COOL FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
LAKE BY MID MORNING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE OR SO. WINDS WILL
TURN BACK SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
DEEP LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN WINDS. THE LOW PRESSURE PATH IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...EVEN WITHIN THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE. IN
ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. SUCH A COMPLEX COULD HAVE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WITH IT. THE GENERALLY PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TAKE THE
PATH OF THEIR PREDECESSORS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO ONTARIO.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
947 PM CDT
HAVE CLEARED ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT CINH IS IN PLACE TO PREVENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-80. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE COOK
COUNTY IN THE WATCH SINCE SOME STRONGER CELLS IN NORTHWEST WILL
COUNTY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINS. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE SEVERE THREAT ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS PREVIOUS STORMS AND OUTFLOW HAVE
LIKELY RESULTED IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. WILL HANG ON TO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS THOUGH AS THERE IS STILL
SOME STRONG STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION. IF CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
IZZI
&&
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
515 PM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.
A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.
ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* RAIN THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES.
* OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
* VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
INTENSITY...WITH TRAILING AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL AIR SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...WITH EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IN FAR SE IA. EXPECT THAT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES PRIOR TO 12Z...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
VISIBILITY MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY AS
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE FAIRLY LOW. CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR POINTS TO ANY MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF RAIN BEING
BRIEF AND SEE NO REASON THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING DAYBREAK. THESE WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES PAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 500
FT TO 2000 FT LAYER WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ENDING TIME.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFTER.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SSW WINDS G35KT. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHC TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR JUNE...WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. A COOL FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
LAKE BY MID MORNING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE OR SO. WINDS WILL
TURN BACK SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
DEEP LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN WINDS. THE LOW PRESSURE PATH IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...EVEN WITHIN THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE. IN
ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. SUCH A COMPLEX COULD HAVE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WITH IT. THE GENERALLY PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TAKE THE
PATH OF THEIR PREDECESSORS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO ONTARIO.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
947 PM CDT
HAVE CLEARED ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT CINH IS IN PLACE TO PREVENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-80. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE COOK
COUNTY IN THE WATCH SINCE SOME STRONGER CELLS IN NORTHWEST WILL
COUNTY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINS. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE SEVERE THREAT ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS PREVIOUS STORMS AND OUTFLOW HAVE
LIKELY RESULTED IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. WILL HANG ON TO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS THOUGH AS THERE IS STILL
SOME STRONG STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION. IF CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
IZZI
&&
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
515 PM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.
A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.
ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* RAIN THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES.
* OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
* VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
INTENSITY...WITH TRAILING AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL AIR SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...WITH EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IN FAR SE IA. EXPECT THAT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES PRIOR TO 12Z...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
VISIBILITY MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY AS
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE FAIRLY LOW. CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR POINTS TO ANY MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF RAIN BEING
BRIEF AND SEE NO REASON THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING DAYBREAK. THESE WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES PAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 500
FT TO 2000 FT LAYER WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ENDING TIME.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFTER.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SSW WINDS G35KT. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHC TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
714 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE HOOSIER STATE TO BE
WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CROSS INDIANA
THURSDAY...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
POPS ARE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY.
STORMS TO OUR WEST ARE DYING AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BUT ARE
APT TO LEAVE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER US TODAY. NONE OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS WELL. HOWEVER...THEY
ALL HAVE A WEAK WAVE CROSSING ALOFT TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY IGNITE
CONVECTION WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS.
TO REALLY GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE RUC FORECASTS START EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DAY PERIOD.
FOR NOW I WILL BASICALLY USE A MET MAV ENSEMBLE TO GET THE BEST
OF EACH. HOWEVER...I WILL AT LEAST BE CHANCE AS OPPOSED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EVERYWHERE. WILL SAY LIKELY IN NORTHWEST. WHILE
PRECIPITATION NOW THERE MAY DIE BY 12Z...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT
SOMEWHAT WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WILL
TAKE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...AGAIN TO CAPTURE
ENSEMBLE EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS CONCUR
RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA SHUTTING PRECIPITATION DOWN.
WE COULD GET STORMS EARLY TONIGHT FROM STUFF THAT FIRES DURING DAY
AND SURVIVES INTO EVENING. AFTER THAT SOME STUFF COULD STILL DEVELOP
IN WARM HUMID AIR UNTIL RIDGE REALLY BUILDS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
DONT SEE HOW I CAN BEAT THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR IN THE FUTURE. WILL
COMBINE MAV AND MET HOPING FOR BEST OF BOTH.
ON TEMPERATURES USING THE MET. MAV HAS NOT BEEN DOING WELL
IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH LATELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HELPING TO ERODE THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND SHUTTLE IT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
MERITS AT LEAST SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS RELATIVELY WELL...WITH SOME
TWEAKS.
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AND GUIDANCE DEPICTS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENING TO
OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID...MODELS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF ONE
OR MORE MCS/S...DURING PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS...AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTIALIZATION GAVE TO
HANDLE IT...APPEAR REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE ENTERING THE
TIME OF YEAR WHEN ORGANIZED RIDGE RIDING CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES RELATIVELY COMMON. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...CANNOT
JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AT THE MOMENT.
REMAINDER OF BLEND WAS REASONABLE...WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
MAX/MIN TEMPS AFTER CONSULTING 850 TEMP PROGS. ASIDE FROM WHAT
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...90 DEGREE HEAT WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON
FOR LENGTHY PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TAF
SITES...BEYOND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO EARLY. NO THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ANY
REMNANT BOUNDARIES...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY SREF PROBABILTIES...THAT THUNDER WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA...AND PERHAPS NOT
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY SORT OF MENTION
FOR THE MOMENT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF IT BECOMES
NECESSARY...AS MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THE AFTERNOON SHAKE OUT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY...AROUND 10KT DURING THE
DAY...LESSER EARLY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE HOOSIER STATE TO BE
WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CROSS INDIANA
THURSDAY...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
POPS ARE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY.
STORMS TO OUR WEST ARE DYING AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BUT ARE
APT TO LEAVE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER US TODAY. NONE OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS WELL. HOWEVER...THEY
ALL HAVE A WEAK WAVE CROSSING ALOFT TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY IGNITE
CONVECTION WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS.
TO REALLY GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE RUC FORECASTS START EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DAY PERIOD.
FOR NOW I WILL BASICALLY USE A MET MAV ENSEMBLE TO GET THE BEST
OF EACH. HOWEVER...I WILL AT LEAST BE CHANCE AS OPPOSED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EVERYWHERE. WILL SAY LIKELY IN NORTHWEST. WHILE
PRECIPITATION NOW THERE MAY DIE BY 12Z...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT
SOMEWHAT WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WILL
TAKE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...AGAIN TO CAPTURE
ENSEMBLE EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS CONCUR
RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA SHUTTING PRECIPITATION DOWN.
WE COULD GET STORMS EARLY TONIGHT FROM STUFF THAT FIRES DURING DAY
AND SURVIVES INTO EVENING. AFTER THAT SOME STUFF COULD STILL DEVELOP
IN WARM HUMID AIR UNTIL RIDGE REALLY BUILDS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
DONT SEE HOW I CAN BEAT THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR IN THE FUTURE. WILL
COMBINE MAV AND MET HOPING FOR BEST OF BOTH.
ON TEMPERATURES USING THE MET. MAV HAS NOT BEEN DOING WELL
IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH LATELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HELPING TO ERODE THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND SHUTTLE IT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
MERITS AT LEAST SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS RELATIVELY WELL...WITH SOME
TWEAKS.
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AND GUIDANCE DEPICTS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENING TO
OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID...MODELS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF ONE
OR MORE MCS/S...DURING PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS...AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTIALIZATION GAVE TO
HANDLE IT...APPEAR REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE ENTERING THE
TIME OF YEAR WHEN ORGANIZED RIDGE RIDING CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES RELATIVELY COMMON. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...CANNOT
JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AT THE MOMENT.
REMAINDER OF BLEND WAS REASONABLE...WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
MAX/MIN TEMPS AFTER CONSULTING 850 TEMP PROGS. ASIDE FROM WHAT
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...90 DEGREE HEAT WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON
FOR LENGTHY PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FROM ALL
TAFS...AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED THAT MIGHT HAVE
THREATENED THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY...AND WILL ADDRESS THAT IN THE 12Z PACKAGE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KCHI TO KSTL WILL CONTINUE INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE STORM MAY PUSH INTO THE KLAF
AND KHUF AREA AROUND TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL MENTION PERIOD OF
TEMPO TSRA AT THOSE SITES. IT MAY REACH KIND AND KBMG AFTER
10Z...BUT MUCH OF THE LINE MAY BE BREAKING UP BY THEN SO WILL ONLY
MENTION VCTS AT KBMG AND KIND.
WHATS LEFT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS BY 15Z. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF INDIANA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES HOLD. THE NAM MODEL
INDICATES MOST OF THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF KIND AND KBMG TAFS AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF MORE THUNDER
AFFECTING ANY TAFS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. MODELS INDICATE
DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OVERALL TAFS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE 8 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
10-12 KNOTS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JH/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE HOOSIER STATE TO BE
WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CROSS INDIANA
THURSDAY...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
POPS ARE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY.
STORMS TO OUR WEST ARE DYING AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BUT ARE
APT TO LEAVE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER US TODAY. NONE OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS WELL. HOWEVER...THEY
ALL HAVE A WEAK WAVE CROSSING ALOFT TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY IGNITE
CONVECTION WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS.
TO REALLY GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE RUC FORECASTS START EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DAY PERIOD.
FOR NOW I WILL BASICALLY USE A MET MAV ENSEMBLE TO GET THE BEST
OF EACH. HOWEVER...I WILL AT LEAST BE CHANCE AS OPPOSED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EVERYWHERE. WILL SAY LIKELY IN NORTHWEST. WHILE
PRECIPITATION NOW THERE MAY DIE BY 12Z...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT
SOMEWHAT WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WILL
TAKE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...AGAIN TO CAPTURE
ENSEMBLE EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS CONCUR
RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA SHUTTING PRECIPITATION DOWN.
WE COULD GET STORMS EARLY TONIGHT FROM STUFF THAT FIRES DURING DAY
AND SURVIVES INTO EVENING. AFTER THAT SOME STUFF COULD STILL DEVELOP
IN WARM HUMID AIR UNTIL RIDGE REALLY BUILDS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
DONT SEE HOW I CAN BEAT THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR IN THE FUTURE. WILL
COMBINE MAV AND MET HOPING FOR BEST OF BOTH.
ON TEMPERATURES USING THE MET. MAV HAS NOT BEEN DOING WELL
IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH LATELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HELPING TO ERODE THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND SHUTTLE IT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
MERITS AT LEAST SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS RELATIVELY WELL...WITH SOME
TWEAKS.
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AND GUIDANCE DEPICTS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENING TO
OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID...MODELS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF ONE
OR MORE MCS/S...DURING PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS...AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTIALIZATION GAVE TO
HANDLE IT...APPEAR REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE ENTERING THE
TIME OF YEAR WHEN ORGANIZED RIDGE RIDING CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES RELATIVELY COMMON. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...CANNOT
JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AT THE MOMENT.
REMAINDER OF BLEND WAS REASONABLE...WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
MAX/MIN TEMPS AFTER CONSULTING 850 TEMP PROGS. ASIDE FROM WHAT
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...90 DEGREE HEAT WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON
FOR LENGTHY PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KCHI TO KSTL WILL CONTINUE INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE STORM MAY PUSH INTO THE KLAF
AND KHUF AREA AROUND TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL MENTION PERIOD OF
TEMPO TSRA AT THOSE SITES. IT MAY REACH KIND AND KBMG AFTER
10Z...BUT MUCH OF THE LINE MAY BE BREAKING UP BY THEN SO WILL ONLY
MENTION VCTS AT KBMG AND KIND.
WHATS LEFT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS BY 15Z. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF INDIANA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES HOLD. THE NAM MODEL
INDICATES MOST OF THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF KIND AND KBMG TAFS AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF MORE THUNDER
AFFECTING ANY TAFS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. MODELS INDICATE
DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OVERALL TAFS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE 8 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
10-12 KNOTS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE HOOSIER STATE TO BE
WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CROSS INDIANA
THURSDAY...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
POPS ARE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY.
STORMS TO OUR WEST ARE DYING AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BUT ARE
APT TO LEAVE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER US TODAY. NONE OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS WELL. HOWEVER...THEY
ALL HAVE A WEAK WAVE CROSSING ALOFT TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY IGNITE
CONVECTION WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS.
TO REALLY GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE RUC FORECASTS START EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DAY PERIOD.
FOR NOW I WILL BASICALLY USE A MET MAV ENSEMBLE TO GET THE BEST
OF EACH. HOWEVER...I WILL AT LEAST BE CHANCE AS OPPOSED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EVERYWHERE. WILL SAY LIKELY IN NORTHWEST. WHILE
PRECIPITATION NOW THERE MAY DIE BY 12Z...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT
SOMEWHAT WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WILL
TAKE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...AGAIN TO CAPTURE
ENSEMBLE EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS CONCUR
RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA SHUTTING PRECIPITATION DOWN.
WE COULD GET STORMS EARLY TONIGHT FROM STUFF THAT FIRES DURING DAY
AND SURVIVES INTO EVENING. AFTER THAT SOME STUFF COULD STILL DEVELOP
IN WARM HUMID AIR UNTIL RIDGE REALLY BUILDS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
DONT SEE HOW I CAN BEAT THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR IN THE FUTURE. WILL
COMBINE MAV AND MET HOPING FOR BEST OF BOTH.
ON TEMPERATURES USING THE MET. MAV HAS NOT BEEN DOING WELL
IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH LATELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WILL GET REPLACED BY UPPER TROUGHING BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLES
HINT AT MAYBE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS ARE DRY. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KCHI TO KSTL WILL CONTINUE INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE STORM MAY PUSH INTO THE KLAF
AND KHUF AREA AROUND TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL MENTION PERIOD OF
TEMPO TSRA AT THOSE SITES. IT MAY REACH KIND AND KBMG AFTER
10Z...BUT MUCH OF THE LINE MAY BE BREAKING UP BY THEN SO WILL ONLY
MENTION VCTS AT KBMG AND KIND.
WHATS LEFT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS BY 15Z. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF INDIANA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES HOLD. THE NAM MODEL
INDICATES MOST OF THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF KIND AND KBMG TAFS AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF MORE THUNDER
AFFECTING ANY TAFS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. MODELS INDICATE
DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OVERALL TAFS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE 8 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
10-12 KNOTS SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH PRIOR TO IMPACTING CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOW T/TD
SPREADS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS GIVEN
RECENT RAINS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR TOWARD SUNRISE. BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND 15Z WITH PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MWM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK FLOW MADE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY SITE...THE
MOSTLY LIKELY SITE WOULD BE KCNU. BASED ON LATEST LAPS 500M CIN/CAPE
ANALYSIS...CAPPING IS NEARLY GONE OVER SOUTHEAST KS/ROUGHLY EAST
OF I-35 WITH CAPE RUNNING BETWEEN 2800-3100 J/KILOGRAM IN THIS AREA.
JUST NOT SURE THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING TO GET STORMS TO GO...AND
WILL KEEP ALL TAFS DRY FOR NOW...AND UPDATE IF/WHEN STORMS START
TO GO. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
A INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUN. SOME
CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH HEATING ON SUN AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...OTHER THAN MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS...IS STARTING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF MID-MISSOURI VALLEY MCV...EVIDENCED BY
700-500MB RIDGING OVER KS...IS LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS WELL. GIVEN STRONGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE ANYTHING OUT
YET...BUT IF CURRENT TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING
EVENING POPS.
KLEINSASSER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLY
RETURNING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE KC METRO...WSW INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS. OLD
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY
WASHED OUT OVER CENTRAL OK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE
MCV (FROM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING) IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH A MUCH SMALLER MCV
(FROM TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT) MEANDERING OVER
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING NICELY OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS KS. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
MCV TO THE NORTHEAST...THINKING CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE WILL
ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ZIPPERING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST KS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO PER
LATEST HRRR AND OUN WRF MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY COULD EVEN BUBBLE FURTHER WSW ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK NORTHERN OK MCV. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
ROLLING ESE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING LLJ...ALTHOUGH LOWER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS THIS AREA. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY & HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST
INITIALLY)...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ACTIVITY COULD TEND TO
LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS WELL INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT IN STALLING THE BOUNDARY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO LASTING PAST
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MID/LATE EVENING.
ANTICIPATING CENTRAL KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MCV PRODUCED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...ENDED UP LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. HOWEVER...THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AS DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WASHES OUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY LATE MORNING. GOOD MIXING AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER
90S...WITH NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
STRENGTHENING HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S APPEAR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVING BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS. SUSPECT THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH...SO OTHER
THAN SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...WARMING TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY...AS SOUTHERN/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE LEFT SOME UPPER ENERGY THAT IS SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST KS. THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SO TOOK VCTS OUT EVERYWHERE BUT KICT AND
KCNU WHICH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING AT KCNU.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 70 94 74 96 / 30 20 10 0
HUTCHINSON 69 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
NEWTON 68 93 74 95 / 30 20 10 0
ELDORADO 68 91 73 93 / 30 20 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 92 73 94 / 40 20 10 0
RUSSELL 66 97 74 99 / 20 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 66 97 74 99 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 68 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
MCPHERSON 68 95 74 97 / 20 20 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 70 90 72 92 / 40 20 10 0
CHANUTE 70 90 72 92 / 40 20 10 0
IOLA 70 90 72 92 / 40 20 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 70 90 72 92 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
306 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. CONVECTION FIRING UP FURTHER
UPSTREAM IS ALSO SHOWING A GOOD WEAKENING TREND AND BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM LOOKED OVERPLAYED WITH BRINGING PRECIPITATION FURTHER EASTWARD
THE REST OF TONIGHT. PREFER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...WHICH CAPTURES
THIS LULL FAIRLY WELL AND THEN BRINGS IN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO
THE BLUEGRASS TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE GRIDS AS
WELL AS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM FLEMING TO
HARLAN COUNTY AND BECAME QUITE ACTIVE FROM AROUND 5 TO 8 PM. MOST OF
THE STORMS WERE JUST HEAVY RAINERS...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE STORMS
PULSED UP TO NEAR SEVERE WEATHER CRITERIA. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...NOR ARE THEY EXPECTED.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS
TO WHEN TO EXPECT THE RAINFALL. FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...THERE HAS
BEEN AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS.
AS SUCH...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND TO BRING SOME STORMS INTO THE AREA
NEAR DAWN AS THE 18 GMT GFS WAS INDICATING AND THE THEN WENT WITH A
BRIEF LULL BEFORE INCREASING THE CHANCES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO THE DIVERSE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW
RIGHT NOW. ALSO EXPECTING SOME FOG IN THE VALLEYS NEAR LOCATIONS THE
RECEIVED RAINFALL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS FINALLY ON THE WANE...AND EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHORT RANGE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE TODAY/S
CONVECTION VERY WELL...AND AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS INSIST ON
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS ON LOCATION AND TIMING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WITH
SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SUNDAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA
OF SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. MADE ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATION TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOWS A WEAKNESS OVER THE ERN OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WEAKNESS HAS A FEW SHOWERS AT THE SFC BUT THEY ARE WELL
NORTH OF ERN KY...SO THIS FCST STARTS OUT DRY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM
THE SW. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S. EXPECT THIS
SCENERIO TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY
FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WE
WILL BE IN A NW FLOW ALOFT ONCE MORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC TROF TO
DECEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE PCPN AND ACCOMPANING CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE. THE POSSIBILITY FOR PCPN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER OUR NRN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
SLIGHTLY BELOW MID WEEK LEVELS AS HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CONTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
MVFR TO AS LOW AS LIFR FOG WILL BE SPOTTY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
TARGETING LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LET THE VCTS REMAIN INTACT FOR
NOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF
CONVECTION REMAINS LOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. CONVECTION FIRING UP FURTHER
UPSTREAM IS ALSO SHOWING A GOOD WEAKENING TREND AND BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM LOOKED OVERPLAYED WITH BRINGING PRECIPITATION FURTHER EASTWARD
THE REST OF TONIGHT. PREFER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...WHICH CAPTURES
THIS LULL FAIRLY WELL AND THEN BRINGS IN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO
THE BLUEGRASS TOWARDS 12Z. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE GRIDS AS
WELL AS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM FLEMING TO
HARLAN COUNTY AND BECAME QUITE ACTIVE FROM AROUND 5 TO 8 PM. MOST OF
THE STORMS WERE JUST HEAVY RAINERS...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE STORMS
PULSED UP TO NEAR SEVERE WEATHER CRITERIA. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...NOR ARE THEY EXPECTED.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS
TO WHEN TO EXPECT THE RAINFALL. FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...THERE HAS
BEEN AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS.
AS SUCH...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND TO BRING SOME STORMS INTO THE AREA
NEAR DAWN AS THE 18 GMT GFS WAS INDICATING AND THE THEN WENT WITH A
BRIEF LULL BEFORE INCREASING THE CHANCES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO THE DIVERSE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW
RIGHT NOW. ALSO EXPECTING SOME FOG IN THE VALLEYS NEAR LOCATIONS THE
RECEIVED RAINFALL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS FINALLY ON THE WANE...AND EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHORT RANGE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE TODAY/S
CONVECTION VERY WELL...AND AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS INSIST ON
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS ON LOCATION AND TIMING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WITH
SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SUNDAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA
OF SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. MADE ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATION TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH
HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.
AN UPPER TROUGH HEADING EAST SOUTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESS IT SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS ALLOWS
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS THIS STARTS TO HAPPEN...BUT
OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY. WITHOUT A DISCERNIBLE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND WITH WEAK FLOW...THINK THAT IF PRECIP
OCCURS THE COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN LOW. WILL USE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION...WILL USE CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO
MEXMOS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
ON SATURDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING TO OUR EAST AND
THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT DROPPING TO OUR SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP WILL END AND DRIER AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO ARRIVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
MVFR TO AS LOW AS LIFR FOG WILL BE SPOTTY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
TARGETING LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LET THE VCTS REMAIN INTACT FOR
NOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF
CONVECTION REMAINS LOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
620 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT GRAZING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOG AND STRATUS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR DOWNEAST.
BOTH HRRR AND REG GEM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF FOG CURRENTLY
BETWEEN CAPE COD AND YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
REACHING THE COAST AROUND 2AM MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE BANGOR AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3AM AND 6AM MONDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUING AS A RESULT. THE
ONE CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COME IN FROM THE EAST AND AFFECT MAINLY
COASTAL AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY ALSO FORM
INLAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ANY FOG/CLOUDS THAT FORM
WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE NORTH TO THE 65-70 RANGE DOWNEAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COOL NIGHT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH THE ALLAGASH
ACTUALLY EXPERIENCING THE UPPER RANGE OF THESE TEMPERATURES. THE
FOG AND STRATUS AND BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW
70S FOR MUCH OF DOWN EAST TO INCLUDE BANGOR. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
ALLAGASH AND SJV. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM
TO THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY REBUILD FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS WILL RETURN DOWN EAST OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE ALLAGASH AND MUCH
COOLER LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CONTINUING MARINE LAYER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT PASS THROUGH THE STATE OR BRING ANY
COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A DRIER
WESTERLY WIND AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR
INTERIOR DOWN EAST. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING LEFTOVER FROM THE FRONT AND OTHERWISE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH BRINGS SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN MCS
TYPE OF FEATURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
REFLECT THIS RISK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM AIR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70F
RANGE AND A POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S. A MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF HOULTON...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL DROP TO THE MID 70S NORTH
AND NEAR 80F DOWN EAST AND EVEN LOWER FOR SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND AFFECT KBGR AND KBHB
BEFORE BURNING OFF TOMORROW MORNING. A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.
ALSO EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT / EARLY TOMORROW DUE TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG.
SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME VLIFR POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND
BHB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TUESDAY AND RETURN FOR
DOWN EAST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY IN THE FORM
OF HAZE AND FOG. WAVE HTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY IN
A SOUTHERLY SWELL REACHING 4 OR EVEN 5 FEET.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOSTER
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOSTER/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF FROM NRN
MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINNING TO BE FORCED NE DUE TO
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO QUEBEC. STRONG SURGE OF
DRIER AIR IS FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE PER 00Z SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN BLO ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE DAKOTAS.
IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIR WAS NOTED BTWN ROUGHLY 700-500MB ON 00Z
KINL/KBIS SOUNDINGS. DWPT DEPRESSIONS WERE WELL IN EXCESS OF 30C.
KBIS SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A DRY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS
THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE QUICKLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
RESULTING IN A WARM DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. MIXING TO
800-750MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S. WEAKENING WRLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTN WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO PROVIDE SOME AFTN COOLING NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. DRY AIR AVBL TO MIX DOWN SHOULD RESULT IN SFC DWPTS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S IN GENERAL AWAY FROM LAKE MODIFICATION.
SOME LOW/MID 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. SUN WILL MIX WITH HIGHER BASED CU DURING THE DAY.
AS FAST AS THE DRYING OCCURRED TODAY...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TONIGHT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RACING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO 40-50KT
AND TAKES AIM AT UPPER MI. WHILE BEST MUCAPE TO THE SW SHOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SW/S AND THUS INTERCEPTING SOME
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO UPPER MI...OVERALL DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
FORCING TO THE N AND BUILDING 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE FARTHER N
WITH TIME SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND N AND NE WITH
TIME AS WELL. WITH EXPECTATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION TO THE S/SW
INTERCEPTING INSTABILITY TRANSPORT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SVR STORMS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER STORMS TO THE S/SW WEAKEN...
ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY TO THE NE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOST
PERIODS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH W/SW FLOW AT
500MB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND A SERIES OF WAVES SLIDE ACROSS OR NORTH OF UPPER MI.
WILL LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL MCS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE NEARING SFC LOW SHIFTS FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT 06Z MONDAY AND CROSSES MN MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THREAT IN THE HWO. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC FROM 4-13Z MONDAY W...08-17Z MONDAY S CENTRAL
/SLIGHTLY LESS PRONOUNCED AND SLOWER OFF THE GFS/...AND MORE LIKE 12Z
MON-00Z TUE E...IN THE 50-60KT RANGE. LLWS WILL BE LIKELY A THREAT
FOR FOR AVIATION USERS...WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND
ALOFT. EXPECT DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG NEAR THE WI BORDER BY
18Z...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. 0-2KM LAPSE RATES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 6-7C/KM...WITH A
THIN LINE UP TO AROUND 8C/KM OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
00Z TUESDAY...LINING UP WITH 1K-2K J/KG CAPE VALUES. EVEN THE 0-3KM
CAPE IS 0.5-1K J/KG OVER THE W HALF BY 18Z...WITH A CONTINUATION
CENTRAL AND E THROUGH 00Z TUE. CIN LOOKS TO BE AOB 40 J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...WITH AN INDICATION OF ELEVATED STORMS CENTRAL AND E
OF A LINE FROM ALGER TO DELTA COUNTY AT LEAST INITIALLY. EXPECT TO
SEE STRONGER STORMS NEARING FROM THE WSW...TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH
INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE AREAS OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SINKS JUST SE OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL RETURN IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SFC LOW EDGING ACROSS MN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CAPE VALUES AGAIN NEAR 1K J/KG TUESDAY AS THIS
LOW TOO PUSHES ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ATTEMPTED TO DRY OUT AREAS NEAR LAKE MI
TUESDAY NIGHT...OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS A BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD BE OVER THE W THIRD OF
THE CWA BY AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. COMPARING MODEL OUTPUT...THE
17/06Z NAM IS ON THE QUICK END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AT LEAST SFC
WISE...WITH THE 17/00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEHIND
THE NAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD. EXPECT 8-10C 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY ON NW-W FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME MINOR INDICATIONS IN A PATTERN CHANGE
ALOFT. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
BECOME SUPPRESSED THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE YET ANOTHER
500MB LOW PASSING OVER ONTARIO. THIS LAST ONE LOOKS TO GET HELD UP
OVER S HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC AS THE 500MB RIDGE PUSHES UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR W WINDS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE...SO EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. AS THE
EVENING APPROACHES...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG WITH THE RESULTING PATH OF THE
SYSTEM...SO NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION OF TSRA.
REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET/STRONG MOISTURE RETURN WILL
MOST LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. AS NIGHT TIME INVERSION
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXPECT LLWS TO BE OF CONCERN AT
KCMX/KSAW. TSRA/SHRA CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS UPPER MI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME SINCE EXACT
LOCATION AND SET UP IS STILL UNKNOWN...BUT DO EXPECT SOME TSRA AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY...BEHIND THE EXITING SFC
LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING OVER S CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. EXPECT THE NORTHERN LOW TO PUSH
ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY /WITH GUSTS NEARING 30-35KTS CENTRAL AND
E/...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH LS AND INTO NE. GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...FOG WILL BE A COMMON THEME. A SECONDARY LOW
OVER NE WILL RIDE UP THE TROUGH AND CROSS LS AND PUSH INTO ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE TROUGH SE
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN AND LINGER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WSW GUSTS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 25-30KTS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF FROM NRN
MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINNING TO BE FORCED NE DUE TO
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO QUEBEC. STRONG SURGE OF
DRIER AIR IS FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE PER 00Z SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN BLO ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE DAKOTAS.
IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIR WAS NOTED BTWN ROUGHLY 700-500MB ON 00Z
KINL/KBIS SOUNDINGS. DWPT DEPRESSIONS WERE WELL IN EXCESS OF 30C.
KBIS SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A DRY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS
THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE QUICKLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
RESULTING IN A WARM DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. MIXING TO
800-750MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S. WEAKENING WRLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTN WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO PROVIDE SOME AFTN COOLING NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. DRY AIR AVBL TO MIX DOWN SHOULD RESULT IN SFC DWPTS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S IN GENERAL AWAY FROM LAKE MODIFICATION.
SOME LOW/MID 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. SUN WILL MIX WITH HIGHER BASED CU DURING THE DAY.
AS FAST AS THE DRYING OCCURRED TODAY...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TONIGHT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RACING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO 40-50KT
AND TAKES AIM AT UPPER MI. WHILE BEST MUCAPE TO THE SW SHOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SW/S AND THUS INTERCEPTING SOME
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO UPPER MI...OVERALL DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
FORCING TO THE N AND BUILDING 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE FARTHER N
WITH TIME SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND N AND NE WITH
TIME AS WELL. WITH EXPECTATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION TO THE S/SW
INTERCEPTING INSTABILITY TRANSPORT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SVR STORMS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER STORMS TO THE S/SW WEAKEN...
ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY TO THE NE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOST
PERIODS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH W/SW FLOW AT
500MB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND A SERIES OF WAVES SLIDE ACROSS OR NORTH OF UPPER MI.
WILL LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL MCS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE NEARING SFC LOW SHIFTS FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT 06Z MONDAY AND CROSSES MN MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THREAT IN THE HWO. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC FROM 4-13Z MONDAY W...08-17Z MONDAY S CENTRAL
/SLIGHTLY LESS PRONOUNCED AND SLOWER OFF THE GFS/...AND MORE LIKE 12Z
MON-00Z TUE E...IN THE 50-60KT RANGE. LLWS WILL BE LIKELY A THREAT
FOR FOR AVIATION USERS...WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND
ALOFT. EXPECT DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG NEAR THE WI BORDER BY
18Z...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. 0-2KM LAPSE RATES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 6-7C/KM...WITH A
THIN LINE UP TO AROUND 8C/KM OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
00Z TUESDAY...LINING UP WITH 1K-2K J/KG CAPE VALUES. EVEN THE 0-3KM
CAPE IS 0.5-1K J/KG OVER THE W HALF BY 18Z...WITH A CONTINUATION
CENTRAL AND E THROUGH 00Z TUE. CIN LOOKS TO BE AOB 40 J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...WITH AN INDICATION OF ELEVATED STORMS CENTRAL AND E
OF A LINE FROM ALGER TO DELTA COUNTY AT LEAST INITIALLY. EXPECT TO
SEE STRONGER STORMS NEARING FROM THE WSW...TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH
INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE AREAS OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SINKS JUST SE OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL RETURN IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SFC LOW EDGING ACROSS MN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CAPE VALUES AGAIN NEAR 1K J/KG TUESDAY AS THIS
LOW TOO PUSHES ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ATTEMPTED TO DRY OUT AREAS NEAR LAKE MI
TUESDAY NIGHT...OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS A BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD BE OVER THE W THIRD OF
THE CWA BY AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. COMPARING MODEL OUTPUT...THE
17/06Z NAM IS ON THE QUICK END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AT LEAST SFC
WISE...WITH THE 17/00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEHIND
THE NAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD. EXPECT 8-10C 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY ON NW-W FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME MINOR INDICATIONS IN A PATTERN CHANGE
ALOFT. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
BECOME SUPPRESSED THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE YET ANOTHER
500MB LOW PASSING OVER ONTARIO. THIS LAST ONE LOOKS TO GET HELD UP
OVER S HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC AS THE 500MB RIDGE PUSHES UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
PER UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS...DRY AIR SWINGING THRU THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THRU NRN ONTARIO WILL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET/STRONG MOISTURE RETURN TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING RISK OF CONVECTION AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. INCLUDED SHRA AT
ALL 3 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET TAKES AIM AT THE AREA. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE MENTION. WITH
LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVING...INCLUDED LLWS EXCEPT AT KIWD AS WINDS SHOULD
RETAIN SOME GUSTINESS THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY...BEHIND THE EXITING SFC
LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING OVER S CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. EXPECT THE NORTHERN LOW TO PUSH
ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY /WITH GUSTS NEARING 30-35KTS CENTRAL AND
E/...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH LS AND INTO NE. GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...FOG WILL BE A COMMON THEME. A SECONDARY LOW
OVER NE WILL RIDE UP THE TROUGH AND CROSS LS AND PUSH INTO ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE TROUGH SE
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN AND LINGER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WSW GUSTS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 25-30KTS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
524 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF FROM NRN
MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINNING TO BE FORCED NE DUE TO
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO QUEBEC. STRONG SURGE OF
DRIER AIR IS FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE PER 00Z SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN BLO ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE DAKOTAS.
IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIR WAS NOTED BTWN ROUGHLY 700-500MB ON 00Z
KINL/KBIS SOUNDINGS. DWPT DEPRESSIONS WERE WELL IN EXCESS OF 30C.
KBIS SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A DRY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS
THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE QUICKLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
RESULTING IN A WARM DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. MIXING TO
800-750MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S. WEAKENING WRLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTN WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO PROVIDE SOME AFTN COOLING NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. DRY AIR AVBL TO MIX DOWN SHOULD RESULT IN SFC DWPTS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S IN GENERAL AWAY FROM LAKE MODIFICATION.
SOME LOW/MID 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. SUN WILL MIX WITH HIGHER BASED CU DURING THE DAY.
AS FAST AS THE DRYING OCCURRED TODAY...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TONIGHT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RACING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO 40-50KT
AND TAKES AIM AT UPPER MI. WHILE BEST MUCAPE TO THE SW SHOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SW/S AND THUS INTERCEPTING SOME
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO UPPER MI...OVERALL DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
FORCING TO THE N AND BUILDING 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE FARTHER N
WITH TIME SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND N AND NE WITH
TIME AS WELL. WITH EXPECTATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION TO THE S/SW
INTERCEPTING INSTABILITY TRANSPORT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SVR STORMS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOULD STRONGER STORMS TO THE S/SW WEAKEN...
ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY TO THE NE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOST
PERIODS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH W/SW FLOW AT
500MB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND A SERIES OF WAVES SLIDE ACROSS OR NORTH OF UPPER MI.
WILL LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL MCS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE NEARING SFC LOW SHIFTS FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT 06Z MONDAY AND CROSSES MN MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THREAT IN THE HWO. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC FROM 4-13Z MONDAY W...08-17Z MONDAY S CENTRAL
/SLIGHTLY LESS PRONOUNCED AND SLOWER OFF THE GFS/...AND MORE LIKE 12Z
MON-00Z TUE E...IN THE 50-60KT RANGE. LLWS WILL BE LIKELY A THREAT
FOR FOR AVIATION USERS...WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND
ALOFT. EXPECT DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG NEAR THE WI BORDER BY
18Z...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. 0-2KM LAPSE RATES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 6-7C/KM...WITH A
THIN LINE UP TO AROUND 8C/KM OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
00Z TUESDAY...LINING UP WITH 1K-2K J/KG CAPE VALUES. EVEN THE 0-3KM
CAPE IS 0.5-1K J/KG OVER THE W HALF BY 18Z...WITH A CONTINUATION
CENTRAL AND E THROUGH 00Z TUE. CIN LOOKS TO BE AOB 40 J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF...WITH AN INDICATION OF ELEVATED STORMS CENTRAL AND E
OF A LINE FROM ALGER TO DELTA COUNTY AT LEAST INITIALLY. EXPECT TO
SEE STRONGER STORMS NEARING FROM THE WSW...TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH
INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE AREAS OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SINKS JUST SE OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL RETURN IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SFC LOW EDGING ACROSS MN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CAPE VALUES AGAIN NEAR 1K J/KG TUESDAY AS THIS
LOW TOO PUSHES ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ATTEMPTED TO DRY OUT AREAS NEAR LAKE MI
TUESDAY NIGHT...OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS A BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD BE OVER THE W THIRD OF
THE CWA BY AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. COMPARING MODEL OUTPUT...THE
17/06Z NAM IS ON THE QUICK END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AT LEAST SFC
WISE...WITH THE 17/00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEHIND
THE NAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD. EXPECT 8-10C 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY ON NW-W FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME MINOR INDICATIONS IN A PATTERN CHANGE
ALOFT. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
BECOME SUPPRESSED THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE YET ANOTHER
500MB LOW PASSING OVER ONTARIO. THIS LAST ONE LOOKS TO GET HELD UP
OVER S HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC AS THE 500MB RIDGE PUSHES UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
AS DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FROPA OVERSPREADS UPR MI EARLY
THIS MRNG...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS AT CMX/SAW TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. A STEADY W WIND IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG HI PRES RDG WL
TURN GUSTY WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BY MID TO LATE MRNG...
ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. THESE WINDS WL DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE HI PRES AND DIMINSHED MIXING.
ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA MAY INVADE IWD BEFORE 06Z TNGT IN THE RETURN SW
FLOW ARND THE DEPARTING HI...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY...BEHIND THE EXITING SFC
LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING OVER S CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. EXPECT THE NORTHERN LOW TO PUSH
ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY /WITH GUSTS NEARING 30-35KTS CENTRAL AND
E/...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH LS AND INTO NE. GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...FOG WILL BE A COMMON THEME. A SECONDARY LOW
OVER NE WILL RIDE UP THE TROUGH AND CROSS LS AND PUSH INTO ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE TROUGH SE
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN AND LINGER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WSW GUSTS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 25-30KTS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TO SAY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACTIVE IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
A RISK FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING. STILL ANTICIPATING A SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE WE GET A BREAK IN
THE ACTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT COMES SURGING
BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THOSE TWO DAYS. BESIDE SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WITH
THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXISTING THOSE
DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY STRONG
UPPER JET /100-150 KTS/ SLAMMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIGHT NOW. BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
WORK EAST ACROSS MN INTO WI THIS AFTERNOON ON NOSE OF 40 KT LLJ
AND LEADING BLAST OF THETA-E ADVECTION. BACK FURTHER
WEST...STARTING TO SEE A NICE WARM FRONT TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
CLOUDS IN SW MN INTO NE SD...ALMOST RIGHT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
MLCAPES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN ERN SODAK HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 3000 J/KG. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND BACKING WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /NOW AROUND
50 KTS/ AND 0-1KM SHEAR /25-30 KTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/
INCREASING QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL
SIMILAR WITH INITIATING CONVECTION BY 22Z ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER
AROUND YELLOW MEDICINE/LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES...STORM TYPE WILL BE SUPER CELLULAR WITH A
GOOD RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
THROUGH ABOUT 0/1Z. WHAT IS MORE WORRISOME IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THESE STORMS INITIATE. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT HI-RES GUIDANCE YOU
LOOK AT...HRRR/NMM/ARW/MPX-WRF...THEY ALL CONGEAL THE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO A LINE AND SEND IT RACING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BIG WORRY HERE IS THAT PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE
COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO THIS
EVENING THAT THEN ROUGHLY FOLLOWS I-94 DOWN INTO THE TWIN CITES.
BY 6Z...THE RAP HAS MUCAPE OVER THE TWIN CITIES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG...DCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND MOST WORRISOME OF ALL...AN
H85 LLJ INCREASING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KTS ALL POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO. THE BIG HOPE IS THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED AIR /TEMPS IN RAIN HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S/ WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH ACROSS
ERN MN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CAN NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS
TO REACH THE SFC AND WE END UP WITH AN ELEVATED MCS. EITHER WAY
YOU SLICE IT...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT FOR THE MPX
AREA.
TONIGHT...MODELS DRIVE A FRONT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MONDAY NOW
LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY AND CUT POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR SE
CWA. LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT COMES SURGING BACK
NORTH...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MN MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY ON YET ANOTHER 50 KT
LLJ. THIS THEN LEADS US INTO WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS HERE IS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF NOW BEING LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWING FRONTAL PLACEMENT MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL BE
VERY WARM AND HUMID SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS LIKELY IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAY NOT
SEE MUCH ACTIVITY AS STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...WITH H7 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND +14C...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW MID
LEVEL TEMPS COOLING...WITH ALL SORTS OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF.
WORRY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THAT BESIDE ALL THE
INSTABILITY...AN IMPRESSIVE 70-90 KT SW MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE
SPLAYED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT TUES/WED...WHICH MEANS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS WILL BE HIGH...AND WITH PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES
/180 PERCENT OF NORMAL/...FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
MODELS FINALLY SHOWING WNW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY
THURSDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN FINALLY GETTING
KICKED OUT OF HERE. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THU/FRI...WHICH IS
DRY...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT/FRI...JUST AS THE ECWMF SLIDES A 1020 MB HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS UP SATURDAY WHEN
THE ECWMF/GFS SHOW A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING UP INTO THE MPX AREA
AS A SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS SODAK INTO IA. AS A RESULT...BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SAT NIGHT. LOOKING JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE...WITH
SIGNS OF A DECENT HEAT WAVE SHOWING UP FOR THE END OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AS YOU CAN SEE..THUNDERSTORMS HAD RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MN. SFC LOW WILL
TRACK EAST OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC
LOW....THEN CONGEAL INTO LARGE BOW SEGMENT LATER TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING BETWEEN
3000-4000 FEET AGL OVERNIGHT.
.KMSP...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OR
THROUGH 300 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SW 10KT SHIFTING NW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 12 TO 17 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1258 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO SW MN THIS MORNING ON NOSE
OF RAP ANALYZED 40+ KT LLJ AND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG H85 WAA.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE FEEDING UP INTO
THIS AREA OF WAA...WITH THE EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA RESULTING. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 40
KTS RIGHT NOW...SO A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS
PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE WORKING OVER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL CONTINUING. IF THESE
STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A RISK FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL
EXIST AS WELL.
FOR THE SEVERE RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON /WHICH IS WHAT PROMPTED
THE MODERATE RISK FROM THE SPC/...THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR
NORTH DOES A VERY WARM EML AND ATTENDANT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
MAKE IT. TREND FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR SHOW THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY HAS SHIFT NORTH
SOME FROM WHAT GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT WAS SHOWING. THIS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 12Z NAM. BASED ON A RAP/NAM
COMBO...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO WRN MN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
WHEATON AND MARSHALL...WITH CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN 3 AND 5
PM IN NE SODAK/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BELIEVE THE HRRR
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST IS A BIT NORTH WITH THINGS BASED ON WHERE
THE RAP PLACES SFC FEATURES...BUT SUSPECT THE STRONG CAP MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY. GIVEN 2000-3000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE..ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS...AND
0-1KM SHEAR PEGGED BY THE RAP TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 40
KTS...WHATEVER DOES GET GOING IN WEST CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXISTING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM THIS EVENING
AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REST OF MINNESOTA INTO WI TONIGHT. WITH
THE NRN SHIFT IN MODELS...SUSPECT GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 WITH
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN MCS. SOUTHERN MN MAY END UP NOT SEEING
MUCH AFTER THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING CAP STRENGTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUT WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THINGS WILL TRY TO
QUIET DOWN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVERLAID WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND H250 WINDS SHOWS A TREMENDOUS +150KT
PACIFIC JET CRASHING ONSHORE OVER THE PUGET SOUND AND RACING TOWARD
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE NEAR-TERM
WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING JET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AND INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH JUST MOVED THROUGH WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AND BE DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...WITH 0-3 HELICITY VALUES OF INCREASING FROM ABOUT 150
M2/S2 TO OVER 500 M2/S2 ALONG THE WARM FRONG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER
INITIATION...ESPECIALLY WITH RIGHT MOVING STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
GENERATE THEIR OWN SRH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE...AND
COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO A DERECHO THAT PROPAGATES ESE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...EXPECT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO REINFORCE THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH STEERING LAYER WINDS PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY...COULD SEE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. AS FAR AS TEMPS
GO...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS WILL EXCEED 20C...SO WILL END
UP BEING A HOT AND HUMID DAY NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A 20F NORTH
TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. SO IN
SUMMATION...SPC HAS UPGRADED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE....AND A SECOND
SEVERE/HEAVY THREAT WILL BE LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A THIRD ROUND OF
STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS THE PARENT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS HUDSON BAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE THIS ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN THE REAR
VIEW MIRROR...WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE
HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE WENT OPTIMISTICALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT MODELS TRY TO BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF IT.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AS YOU CAN SEE..THUNDERSTORMS HAD RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MN. SFC LOW WILL
TRACK EAST OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC
LOW....THEN CONGEAL INTO LARGE BOW SEGMENT LATER TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING BETWEEN
3000-4000 FEET AGL OVERNIGHT.
.KMSP...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OR
THROUGH 300 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SW 10KT SHIFTING NW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 12 TO 17 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/JRB/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO SW MN THIS MORNING ON NOSE
OF RAP ANALYZED 40+ KT LLJ AND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG H85 WAA.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE FEEDING UP INTO
THIS AREA OF WAA...WITH THE EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA RESULTING. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 40
KTS RIGHT NOW...SO A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS
PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE WORKING OVER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL CONTINUING. IF THESE
STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN A RISK FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL
EXIST AS WELL.
FOR THE SEVERE RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON /WHICH IS WHAT PROMPTED
THE MODERATE RISK FROM THE SPC/...THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR
NORTH DOES A VERY WARM EML AND ATTENDANT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
MAKE IT. TREND FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR SHOW THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY HAS SHIFT NORTH
SOME FROM WHAT GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT WAS SHOWING. THIS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 12Z NAM. BASED ON A RAP/NAM
COMBO...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO WRN MN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
WHEATON AND MARSHALL...WITH CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN 3 AND 5
PM IN NE SODAK/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BELIEVE THE HRRR
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST IS A BIT NORTH WITH THINGS BASED ON WHERE
THE RAP PLACES SFC FEATURES...BUT SUSPECT THE STRONG CAP MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY. GIVEN 2000-3000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE..ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS...AND
0-1KM SHEAR PEGGED BY THE RAP TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 40
KTS...WHATEVER DOES GET GOING IN WEST CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXISTING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM THIS EVENING
AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REST OF MINNESOTA INTO WI TONIGHT. WITH
THE NRN SHIFT IN MODELS...SUSPECT GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 WITH
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN MCS. SOUTHERN MN MAY END UP NOT SEEING
MUCH AFTER THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING CAP STRENGTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUT WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THINGS WILL TRY TO
QUIET DOWN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND H250 WINDS SHOWS A TREMENDOUS +150KT PACIFIC
JET CRASHING ONSHORE OVER THE PUGET SOUND AND RACING TOWARD THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE NEAR-TERM
WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING JET...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AND INDUCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WHICH
JUST MOVED THROUGH WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPES OF 2000 TO
3000J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH 0-3 HELICITY
VALUES OF INCREASING FROM ABOUT 150 M2/S2 TO OVER 500 M2/S2 ALONG
THE WARM FRONG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION...ESPECIALLY WITH
RIGHT MOVING STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO GENERATE THEIR OWN SRH.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE...AND COULD SEE A TRANSITION
TO A DERECHO THAT PROPAGATES ESE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...EXPECT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO
REINFORCE THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH STEERING LAYER WINDS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS WILL EXCEED 20C...SO WILL END UP BEING A HOT
AND HUMID DAY NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A 20F NORTH TO SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. SO IN SUMMATION...SPC HAS
UPGRADED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
REASONS LISTED ABOVE....AND A SECOND SEVERE/HEAVY THREAT WILL BE
LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A THIRD ROUND OF STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AS THE
PARENT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS HUDSON BAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE THIS ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN THE REAR
VIEW MIRROR...WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE
HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE WENT OPTIMISTICALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT MODELS TRY TO BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF IT.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED EAST AND SOUTH THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER WINDS
ARE ALREADY BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS NEB INTO W MN AS SURFACE
PRESSURE BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE DKTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
CANOPY OF HIGH AND MID CLDS ACROSS THE DKTS THEN UPSTREAM ACRS THE N
ROCKIES WILL THICKEN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF -SHRA ACRS CNTL MN THIS AFTN...SO HELD ONTO
THE VCSH IN TAFS. MAIN WEATHER EVENT WILL BE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN THE DKTS AND THEN SPREADING INTO AXN/RWF BY
22Z. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH THESE STORMS RAPIDLY ESE INTO
REMAINING TAFS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNITE. A THREAT THAT THESE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE BOWS...MAINLY ACRS S MN THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/BRF IFR IN TSTMS.
SFC WINDS ACRS AREA WILL BECOME SLY ACRS AREA DURING THE MRNG AND
EARLY AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AXN/RWF.
KMSP...THICKENING HIGH AND MID CLDS DRNG THE DAY WITH CIGS AOA 8K. A
FEW -SHRA PSBL AFT 19Z AS MID CLDS THICKEN IN DEVELOPING WAA. LINE
OF TSTMS PSBL ARND 02Z-06Z WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL AS HAIL. MVFR TO BRF IFR IN TSTMS. ALSO THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVLOPING LT TNGHT IN SATURATED AIRMASS FROM EXPECTED PCPN.
SW WINDS BECOME SLY ARND NOON WITH SOME GUSTS ARND 20 KTS DRNG AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SW 10KT SHIFTING NW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 12 TO 17 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/JRB/BAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
323 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
AND CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED INVOF A WEAKLY DEFINED
SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
GFS...NAM...AND HRRR MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH INITIATING
CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...THOUGH
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE TREND OF GRADUAL
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD.
THE RIDGE THAT WAS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED BY THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL
BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WINDS
WILL NOT DIE DOWN VERY MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
JP
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS WITH
DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 850-800MB. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE LIKELY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL
STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WE SHOULD EASILY HIT THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TUESDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF
MONDAY...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT LESS WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT MOVES OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND THE
EASTERN PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH THE GFS STALLING AND WASHING THE FRONT OUT ON
THE MO/IA BORDER THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TAKING
THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OR NORTHERN IOWA. BOTH MODELS KICK OUT SOME PRECIP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...BUT WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FELL
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE ONSET AND SUBSEQUENT
DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CU AOA 3KFT
EXTENDS FROM THE KMCI THROUGH KCOU AND TO KSTL. WHILE THIS CU
FIELD IS SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN MO...VERY CLOSE TO
KUIN...AND NORTH OF LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS
ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL...EXPECT
INITIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
MENTION FOR KCOU FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE QUESTION REMAINS REGARDING HOW MUCH
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SEEN WITH STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS WARRANTED KEEPING METRO AREA TAF SITES AND KUIN
DRY ATTM...THOUGH UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS DAYTIME HEATING SERVES TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN TEETERING ON THE MVFR/VFR
THRESHOLD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE SOUTH AS A WEAK FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY MONDAY
MORNING AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST
TO AROUND 25KT ACROSS THE REGION.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
CU FIELD IS ATTEMPTING TO TAKE HOLD OVER KSTL CURRENTLY...THOUGH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
KSTL DRY FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY EVOLVE. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS...HOWEVER...SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENT WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH...AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
JP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 74 94 74 95 / 30 5 0 5
QUINCY 72 93 72 93 / 30 5 5 10
COLUMBIA 72 93 71 92 / 20 5 0 10
JEFFERSON CITY 72 94 72 93 / 10 5 0 10
SALEM 71 92 73 93 / 20 5 0 0
FARMINGTON 69 91 69 92 / 10 0 0 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1223 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
(TONIGHT)
MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD HEATING TODAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESULTED IN
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY NOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MO INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AS AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE
INTERACTED WITH THIS AIR MASS PROVIDING WEAK ASCENT. COVERAGE OF
THESE STORMS HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED AS THE ASCENT HAS WEAKENED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO LESSER INSTABILITY
RESULTING FROM A MIXING IN THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL TURN
TO THE REMNANT MCV NOW CENTERED IN NW MO AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV HAS PRODUCED A GOOD
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ALONG THE SW IA/NW MO BORDER WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT AND INTO NRN IL BY
MIDNIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND A VEERING SWLY LLJ OF 25-35
KTS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE. VIRTUALLY ALL
THE MODEL QPFS HAVE A GOOD SWATH OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AT LEAST I-70. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND ESPECIALLY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE
AGITATED CU FIELD NOW EXTENDING FROM CHILLICOTHE TOWARDS EMPORIA KS
AND THIS ALONG WITH THE CLUSTER FURTHER NORTH WILL ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS THAT TRACKS SEWD. WHETHER IT IS A COMBINATION OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS OR LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ITSELF...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST BRINGING LIKELY POPS DOWN
TO AROUND I-70.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
SUNDAY`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
MOVES TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF/SREF HAVE SOME EXTENT OF LINGERING
PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
REMAINING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING ALONG ALOFT DURING THE MORNING
AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4KM NCEP WRF LOOK
PRETTY DRY AFTER THE MCS LOSES STEAM LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE 4KM WRF
FIRES PRECIP DOWN OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THINK THE BEST I CAN DO IS CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY...UNSURE OF TIMING OR COVERAGE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ON THE
NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ON AN AREA OF DECENT 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE EVENING...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TO CHANCE IN THOSE AREAS.
CONTINUING HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP US STUCK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE DAY AND LOW TO MID 70S AT NIGHT. SHOULD FEEL LIKE
SUMMER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BREAKING DOWN AND A
FROPA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SHOULD BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE METRO AREA
TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE. TSRA SHOULD PERSIST AT KSUS/KCPS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE PCPN MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PD OF RADIATION FOG OR LOW STRATUS IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. CDFNT OVER IA IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SWD TOWARDS UIN THEN LIFT NWD AGAIN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WLY THEN BECOMING SLY AT ALL TAF SITES.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH KSTL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PD
OF RADIATION FOG OR LOW STRATUS IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEFORE
SUNRISE. CDFNT OVER IA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH KSTL
THEREFORE WLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SWLY TO SLY THROUGH THE
PD.
KANOFSKY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 73 95 75 95 / 30 5 5 5
QUINCY 70 93 73 93 / 30 5 5 5
COLUMBIA 70 93 72 93 / 20 5 5 5
JEFFERSON CITY 71 93 73 94 / 10 5 5 5
SALEM 71 92 73 93 / 20 5 5 5
FARMINGTON 68 91 71 92 / 10 5 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
924 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
HAVE UPDATED AGAIN AS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO FIRE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT FROM TROF MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MT. GREATEST COVERAGE INITIALLY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTH AND FAR EAST PER LOCATION OF JET ENERGY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS IN THE BILLINGS AREA FROM LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL 10Z OR
SO. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH PCPN PER THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. JKL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 725 PM...
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM ID INTO CENTRAL MT...WITH
IMPRESSIVE 120KT H3 JET PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ID IN WSW FLOW
ALOFT. DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF BILLINGS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR BZN AND LVM
BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS MEAGER...AGAIN PER THE DRY AIR. EARLIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONSET OF NORTH WINDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
HAS STABILIZED OUR AIRMASS SOME SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THUNDER IN
CENTRAL PARTS...LEAVING ISOLATED TS IN THE EAST PER RECENT
ACTIVITY AND IN THE WEST NEARER POSITION OF TROF AXIS. HAVE ALSO
REDUCED EVENING POPS PER LATEST TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF...
AND IN FACT THE RAP SUGGESTS SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS IN SOUTHEAST MT
WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
THIS WOULD HELP OUR SHOWER CHANCES DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION SO
HAVE LEFT SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONGER DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS
RETURN BY 12Z SO HAVE LOWERED TUE MORNING POPS SOME AS WELL.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THEY DO DIVERGE BY MONDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT MOVEMENT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA
THURSDAY TO SHIFT ITS AXIS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS
A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL GET EJECTED OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS TOWARD
THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED EAST A BIT AS THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF EJECT THIS LOW
DIFFERENTLY IN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO DAY 8.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST SHOWER CHANCES
TO THE NORTH OF KSHR. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE HEAVY AND CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 8-10KFT AGL.
COMBINATION OF COLD FRONT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NW-N WINDS AT TIMES.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/070 048/073 051/081 056/090 060/089 059/090 058/089
33/T 22/W 10/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 041/064 040/069 043/078 047/088 052/084 050/085 050/082
33/T 32/W 10/U 01/U 22/T 12/T 22/T
HDN 050/072 048/075 049/083 054/094 059/091 059/093 058/091
33/T 22/W 11/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 054/072 050/075 052/082 056/090 061/086 060/092 060/092
63/T 22/W 21/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 052/073 048/074 050/081 057/093 061/087 059/093 063/093
32/T 22/W 11/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 053/070 048/073 050/079 057/087 058/083 057/083 060/089
75/T 32/W 21/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 047/070 045/072 047/078 052/092 057/088 058/091 057/089
22/T 21/B 10/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
725 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM ID INTO CENTRAL MT...WITH
IMPRESSIVE 120KT H3 JET PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ID IN WSW FLOW
ALOFT. DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF BILLINGS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR BZN AND LVM
BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS MEAGER...AGAIN PER THE DRY AIR. EARLIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONSET OF NORTH WINDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
HAS STABILIZED OUR AIRMASS SOME SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THUNDER IN
CENTRAL PARTS...LEAVING ISOLATED TS IN THE EAST PER RECENT
ACTIVITY AND IN THE WEST NEARER POSITION OF TROF AXIS. HAVE ALSO
REDUCED EVENING POPS PER LATEST TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF...
AND IN FACT THE RAP SUGGESTS SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS IN SOUTHEAST MT
WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
THIS WOULD HELP OUR SHOWER CHANCES DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION SO
HAVE LEFT SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONGER DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS
RETURN BY 12Z SO HAVE LOWERED TUE MORNING POPS SOME AS WELL.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THEY DO DIVERGE BY MONDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT MOVEMENT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA
THURSDAY TO SHIFT ITS AXIS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS
A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL GET EJECTED OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS TOWARD
THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED EAST A BIT AS THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF EJECT THIS LOW
DIFFERENTLY IN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO DAY 8.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST SHOWER CHANCES
TO THE NORTH OF KSHR. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE HEAVY AND CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 8-10KFT AGL.
COMBINATION OF COLD FRONT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NW-N WINDS AT TIMES.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/069 048/073 051/081 056/090 060/089 059/090 058/089
33/T 22/W 10/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 041/064 040/069 043/078 047/088 052/084 050/085 050/082
43/T 32/W 10/U 01/U 22/T 12/T 22/T
HDN 050/072 048/075 049/083 054/094 059/091 059/093 058/091
33/T 22/W 11/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 054/072 050/075 052/082 056/090 061/086 060/092 060/092
63/T 22/W 21/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 052/073 048/074 050/081 057/093 061/087 059/093 063/093
32/T 22/W 11/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 052/070 048/073 050/079 057/087 058/083 057/083 060/089
65/T 32/W 21/U 12/T 32/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 047/068 045/072 047/078 052/092 057/088 058/091 057/089
22/T 21/B 10/U 01/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
658 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
WE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE MILES CITY AND BAKER AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS.
THE UPSTREAM SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD KEEP UP THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST. SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY WITH WARM...DRY...AND
WINDY WEATHER ON TAP. HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
FORECAST BECAUSE 1/ IT APPEARS WINDS WILL NOT REACH FULL POTENTIAL
AND 2/ FIRE DANGER CLASS RATINGS AND SOME OTHER TOOLS SUGGEST THIS
WEATHER EVENT MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES TOWARD RED
FLAG CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS. NONETHELESS...WE
WILL CONTINUE EMPHASIZING THE EXPECTED NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS. NOTE THAT A HEADLINE MAY STILL END UP BEING
ISSUED IF WINDS ARE JUST A BIT STRONGER...OR CLOUD COVER IS JUST A
BIT LESS AND PROVIDES LESS SHADING TO FUELS.
TODAY...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...WITH SOME
40 KT OF WIND AT 700 HPA. MIXING SHOULD EXTEND TO AT LEAST 650 HPA
BASED ON 00 UTC GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE FAVORED BECAUSE
THEY MIX MORE DEEPLY THAN THE NAM PROFILES IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH
SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HOWEVER...A
LAYER WITH SOME VERTICAL MOTION IS ALSO ADVERTISED BY MODELS AT OR
ABOVE 700 HPA...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS CAPPED A
BIT BELOW THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. THUS...MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM MOST
BUFKIT PROFILES IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH IN SHOWING GUST POTENTIAL OF
45 KT. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS A COUPLE NOTCHES ABOVE
MOS-BASED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...BUT WE BELIEVE
MOST GUSTS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S F...AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 15 PERCENT IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HUMIDITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A SIMPLE ONE-DAY ERROR CORRECTION TO THE 00 UTC NAM-BASED
MOS...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHT MOIST BIAS THAT SAME GUIDANCE
HAD ON SAT. POOR RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED TONIGHT AND THAT IS ANOTHER
SIGN FOR A QUICK HUMIDITY TUMBLE TODAY. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE A
BIT OF MOISTURE COULD MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. WE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY GIVEN LOW MLCAPE VALUES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THOUGH
THE MID-LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD AT LEAST GENERATE HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS OR EVEN VIRGA TO GO WITH HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...LOW POPS ARE IN PLAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE 06 UTC
AS A 110-120 KT 300-HPA JET STREAK SETS UP. A BIT HIGHER POPS NEAR
30 PERCENT ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE MODEST
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST. SEVERAL 00 UTC MODELS SHOW AN
AREA OF LIGHT QPF IN THAT AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING...WHICH
INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE IN GETTING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS THERE.
MON INTO MON NIGHT...A 500-HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HAVE ITS AXIS OVER CENTRAL MT BY 12 UTC TUE. WE DON/T
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION GIVEN RECENT
MODEL TRENDS...AND A BACKGROUND PATTERN THAT HAS NOT BEEN TOO GOOD
AT YIELDING MUCH DEPTH TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES. THE 00 UTC ECMWF COULD
BE A GOOD COMPROMISE TO THE FULL SET OF MODEL IDEAS THOUGH...WHICH
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ON MON NIGHT. NOTE THAT
DURING THE DAY ON MON OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD 70S F. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
POWERFUL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROCKIES AS WELL. THUS...EXPECT A COOL AND WET PATTERN TUESDAY TO
TRANSITION TO ONE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SAID...THE GFS DOES
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO EXTREMELY
HIGH HIGH CAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INITIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...BUT A POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN THE CAP BREAKING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO AS PROGGED SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES ARE DANGEROUSLY HIGH AT THIS POINT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR THIS PACKAGE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
AVIATION HAZARD SUNDAY WILL BE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS
BECOMING COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE KLVM VICINITY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 055/076 051/068 049/073 050/081 055/091 059/087
1/N 22/T 54/T 33/W 10/B 00/U 22/T
LVM 083 045/075 042/063 040/069 042/079 048/085 052/083
2/T 22/T 54/T 32/W 10/B 00/U 01/U
HDN 088 055/080 051/071 050/075 050/084 054/095 058/090
1/N 22/T 44/T 33/W 10/B 00/U 22/T
MLS 089 058/080 054/072 053/075 053/082 058/090 061/086
2/W 21/U 44/T 53/T 21/B 10/U 22/T
4BQ 088 056/082 053/073 052/073 051/081 056/092 061/087
1/N 31/N 32/T 43/T 10/B 01/U 22/T
BHK 086 056/077 053/071 051/072 051/079 055/086 059/083
2/W 31/N 44/T 53/T 21/B 10/U 22/T
SHR 086 052/082 048/067 048/069 047/078 053/090 058/087
0/B 21/B 32/T 22/W 10/U 00/U 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW
CLOSE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL COME TO MEETING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A STILL-DEEPENING 996MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL SD...IN RESPONSE TO A 110KT 300MB JET STREAK TRACKING
DUE EAST OUT OF MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW INTO NORTHWEST NEB...BUT STILL
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE
FALLS...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND THE 750MB ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A BREEZY/WINDY DAY HAS ENSUED...WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH/GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER. AS SUSPECTED IN THE EARLIER AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS
THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
MIXING. IN FACT...WITH DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S IN SOME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
OF 20 PERCENT IS BEING BREACHED IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT WITH ONLY KS
COUNTIES OFFICIALLY HAVING A FAVORABLE FUEL STATUS FOR LARGE FIRE
GROWTH...AND ANY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT LIKELY
TO ONLY AFFECT A SMALL AREA FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE...WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. TEMP WISE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF MAINLY
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD FALL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL SHOULD END UP WITH SOLID COVERAGE OF AT
LEAST LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MOST NEB COUNTIES...AND UPPER 90S IN MOST
OF KS ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY AREA. ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA REGION IS BY FAR THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST...WITH WEAKER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT ALL THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CWA. WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING
INTO THE 12-15C RANGE AS A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THIS SHOULD KEEP A STOUT CAP IN PLACE. A FEW
MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND 18Z NAM ATTEMPT TO BREAK OUT A FEW HIGH
BASED STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB AT SOME POINT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...BUT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGRATES EAST TOWARD THE IA/MN/NE/SD BORDER AREA
OVERNIGHT...A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA ALL NIGHT LONG...WITH BREEZES OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH REMAINING
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE NIGHT HOWEVER...SPEEDS WILL START TO SLACKEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPERATURES...STILL AIMING FOR MID 60S
FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW 70S EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE CENTRAL AREAS HOLD ABOVE THE 70-MARK AS
WELL.
TURNING TO THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES AS A STOUT CAP WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 13-16C
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MN
REGION...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...WIND TRENDS ARE A BIT
TRICKY THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKS AT LEAST PARTWAY INTO THE CWA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY USHERING IN A LIGHT WESTERLY/NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT THEN
THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS...WITH ALL AREAS BACK IN A LIGHT TO STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM START
AND VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE...A RATHER HOT DAY IS STILL
ADVERTISED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
DIDN/T CHANGE HIGH TEMPS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL
CALLING FOR A RANGE FROM MID 90S FAR NORTH...UPPER 90S ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR...AND 100-105 ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...WITHIN MANY OF THESE HOTTEST
COUNTIES...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PER MET GUIDANCE/RAW NAM SUGGESTION. AS A
RESULT...FORECAST APPARENT TEMPERATURES TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE
100-104 RANGE...WHICH IS JUST BARELY BELOW CRITERIA FOR HEAT
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE VERY CLOSE. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN HWO MENTION OF NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
NO ACTUAL HEADLINE SEEMS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. ALONG THESE SAME
LINES...DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CRASHING INTO THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SEVERAL WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH NEEDED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE...SO NO FIRE
HEADLINES PLANNED.
.LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
CONTINUE TO BE HEAT EARLY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID
WEEK...AND THEN MORE HEAT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL VERY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING...IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
BY WED EVENING WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AT
THAT TIME AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD BE A WARM FRONT DRAPED
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THIS IS SLATED
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM SW TO
NE NEBRASKA. ON TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO APPROACH
THE CWA...EXTENDING FROM VTN TO LBF BY 12Z...AND FROM FULLERTON TO
CAMBRIDGE BY 00Z. QUESTION HERE IS HOW LONG WILL WE REMAIN CAPPED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT PROGGED 700 MB TEMPS IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL IN THE NW WHETHER CONVECTION CAN INITIATE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME WED THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. BY 06Z THE
NE/SW ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD BE ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA...AND
EXPECT IT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MODEL GENERATED QPF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WILL FALL. THE NAM AND THE GFS BOTH SHOW THE RAIN STARTING
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT THE NAM HAS THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR CWA ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT. LATEST GFS
CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MORE ACROSS OUR CWA. IT ALSO SHOWS THE MID
LEVEL FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
OLD EC SHOWED MORE OF A NORTHERN SOLUTION AND WILL TAKE A LATE LOOK
AT THE 12Z RUN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL. CHECKING OTHER
MODELS...BOTH THE SREF AND GEM SUPPORT A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
WHILE THE UKMET MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION.
WED AND THU STILL SHOWING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AS LATEST GFS
NOW BRINGS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE OLD EC AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOT SHOWING THIS AT ALL. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS
AND WHILE IT MAY NOT BE TOTALLY DRY ON THURSDAY...BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVE THE HIGH DEWPOINT BIAS AS OF LATE
CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE POSSIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STARTING IN THE NW PART OF THE CWA TUESDAY LATE AFTN/EVE AS MUCAPE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BOTH RESPECTABLE VIA THE EC. SHEAR MUCH LESS IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. BY WED LATE AFTERNOON BEST SEVERE
PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO OLD EC RUN BUT A
LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING COULD PUT PART OF OUR CWA IN THE PICTURE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS BOTH SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN A STOUT RIDGE BY THEN. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE IF WE
END UP WITH A FEW RIDGE RUNNERS AROUND THE RING OF FIRE THAT CLIP A
PART OF OUR AREA. THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME...BUT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
THIS TYPE OF JULY PATTERN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...STEADY SOUTH BREEZES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 15 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH
GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 26KT. THERE COULD BE BIT OF A LULL IN
THESE GUSTS DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT DEPICTED THIS FOR
NOW. OVERNIGHT...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...AS SOUTHERLY SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT BETWEEN
1500-2000 FT AGL. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT FOR NOW AS DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND THE SPEED DIFFERENCE IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL FOR A FORMAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION. LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL
DECREASE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS A BIT...AND START TURNING THEM MORE
WESTERLY. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE MAY TAKE HOLD BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER SHIFTS TO ADD THIS WIND SHIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...AND KEPT CONDITIONS VFR...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR ANY PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IT HAPPENING TO PUT IT IN THE
TAF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA...KEEPING WINDS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ESP
STARTING NEAR MIDDAY...BETWEEN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WRN SD/NEB AND INCREASED
MIXING POTENTIAL...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TOWARD 20
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT WINDS ARE MORE
VARIABLE...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY
BY MID/LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
UPDATE...JUST COMPLETED UPDATE ADDRESSING THE REST OF TONIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO PULL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT STILL HAD THEM THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO
ADDED A TOKEN 20 POP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO THE BOTTOM ROW
OF 3 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONGLY CONSIDERED LEAVING
ALL AREAS STORM-FREE...BUT WITH THE 23Z HRRR STUBBORNLY INSISTING
THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BRUSH NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT...OPTED TO
PLAY IT SAFE IN THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE...00Z NAM JUST COMING
KEEPS THE ENTIRE CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY KS CONVECTION
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF I-70. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ONGOING
EVENING STORM CLUSTERS/MCS ACTIVITY ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS...AND THUS THE ODDS OF
ANYTHING TRACKING DUE EAST INTO THE CWA ARE QUITE SMALL. AS FOR
THE ODDS OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD...THIS SEEMS
LIKE A LONG SHOT AS WELL...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
PRETTY STOUT CAP EVEN TO ELEVATED PARCELS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...WITH AT LEAST A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...AND HINTS OF SOME
THETA-E ADVECTION AT 700MB..JUST CAN/T COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FLARE UP INTO KS
ZONES TO THE NORTH OF THE MORE LIKELY ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS...MADE NO CHANGE
WHATSOEVER TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID
60S SOUTH STILL ON TRACK. FINALLY...PONDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDING PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT...BUT UNLESS DEWPOINTS STAY UP
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT...SUSPECT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT HAZE ON THE ORDER OF
4-6 MILES...AND PROBABLY NOT WORTHY OF A FORMAL MENTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A
FULLERTON...KEARNEY...ELWOOD LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT THAT TRACKED SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL WASHOUT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. IT COULD STILL PROVE TO BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM
TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. ANY STORMS IN OUR
AREA WOULD PRIMARILY BE DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND SHOULD DIE OUT
BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF THAT HEATING. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 90S WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT VERY
CAPPED. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD POSSIBLY OVERCOME THE CAP
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY IS LOW AND THE COVERAGE
AREA OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY LIMITED. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS.
LONG TERM...00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERNS IN THIS TIME FRAME
INCLUDE HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AND THEN CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASIC PATTERN OF
STARTING OUT IN ZONAL FLOW WITH THE BEST JET ACTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z MONDAY...AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST AND EVENTUALLY WE SEE PRETTY GOOD RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY/INTO THE WEEKEND.
STARTING OUT SUNDAY EVENING...LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT SHOULD HAVE
WORKED WELL NORTH OF THE CWA WITH A DRY LINE TO THE WEST. BETTER MID
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALSO BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY AS BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTH FOR REASONS MENTIONED
ABOVE.
MONDAY WILL BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH 850 PROGGED TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CELSIUS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE GOES WITH. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
OF THE MODELS AS IT BRINGS DRY LINE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO OUR
CWA WHILE GFS JUST A BIT WEST OF THAT POSITION. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
NAM TO PRODUCE SURFACE WINDS WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT
WHICH WOULD FAVOR PARTS OF THE CWA REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK. WILL COMPARE THE LATEST EC MODEL RUN WHEN IT COMES IN. SHOULD
REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
OF 14 TO 17C AT 700 MB KEEPING THINGS CAPPED.
CHANCES OF RAIN THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
LATE AFTERNOON TSTM IN THE NW BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
WE SHOULD STILL BE CAPPED. WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE PREVIOUS
THINKING AND CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HASTINGS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
APPEARS THAT FRONT SHOULD HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB OR
ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXACT LOCATION EACH DAY
WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION REGION. WOULD THINK BETTER CHANCES SHOULD
BE AT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE
BOUNDARY. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THERE ARE A FEW
PERIODS WHERE INSTABILITY IS RESPECTABLE AS SEEN ON EC CAPE
PROJECTIONS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LACKING DURING THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
AS NOTED ABOVE...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN STARTING
FRIDAY. OVERALL THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY INTO THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK AND THE HEAT WILL ALSO RETURN. IF THE RIDGE DOES
BUILD IN AS EXPECTED...IT SHOULD PUT US IN THE RING-OF-FIRE
SCENARIO...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER UNLESS SOMETHING CAN WORK DOWN
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...ADO
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT...WESELY
LONG...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1027 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SURFACE WARM FRONTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LVL DISTURBANCE AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLDS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLDS THAT EVENTUALLY ERODES ACRS
VT. EVENTUALLY THESE HIGH CLDS FILTER INTO FA OVRNGT. MIN T LKLY A
FEW DEGS MILDER THAN LAST NGT BUT STL COMFORTABLE BEFORE THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY ARRIVE.
NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FCST.
AFTN DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE SCHC OF POPS
ACRS THE SLV AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
ON TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A STRONG DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE HGHT FIELDS ACRS
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...FAST WESTERLY FLW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MID RH
AND WEAK OMEGA FIELDS WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT...AND MAY PRODUCE A VERY SCHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS THE SLV.
MEANWHILE...SE ANTICYCLONIC FLW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF MAINE WL CONT TO ADVECT IN LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT ACRS
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. NAM12/BTV4 AND RAP ALL SHOW SFC TO 800MB RH
PROFILES INCREASING AFT 04Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME INDICATION OF
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT. WL MENTION CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/EASTERN VT/SLK TO
M60S CPV/SLV. CPV/SLV SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED BL...WHICH WL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AFTN/EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDNESDAY...
HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL REDEVELOP ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PUSH TWD
THE NE CONUS ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS BELT OF ACTIVE WESTERLY WINDS
LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY LATE WEDS. HOWEVER...AS STRONG LLVL WAA
DEVELOPS ON TUES AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED 5H VORTS SLIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NW FLW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUES. THINKING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION AND SVR POTENTIAL. FIRST LINE WL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WL ENTER OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z TUES. THIS
WL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE IN STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY SE
MARITIME AIR ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. BEST INSTABILITY BTWN 12Z-15Z
WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 600-900 J/KG. FEEL
INITIAL LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WL ADD LLVL MOISTURE AND BE THE
LEADING EDGE TO A MUCH MORE HUMID/WARMER AIRMASS FOR THE AFTN HRS.
MEANWHILE....SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DEVELOPS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
TUES AFTN...AND DIVES SE TWD THE SLV AND OUR NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY
TUES EVENING. THE BEST ULVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND
WESTERLY JET WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH BEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NAM/GFS SHOW 0-6KM SHEAR PARAMETERS BTWN 35 AND 40
KNOTS...WHILE CAPE VALUES INCREASE BTWN 2400 AND 2800 J/KG. BIG
QUESTION WL BE IF CONVECTION TRACKS SE INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA OR
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHERE THE WESTERLY
FLW IS THE STRONGEST. GIVEN...THE SVR PARAMETERS IF ANY CONVECTION
CROSSES THE BORDER...THE POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS...WITH SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LIKELY.
GIVEN...THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/TRACK OF
CONVECTIVE VORT...WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SCHC CENTRAL...AND NIL POPS SOUTH. ALSO...WL MENTION A BRIEF
STATEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN HWO. TEMPS
TUES WL BE TRICKY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT THINKING NEAR 80F
EASTERN VT TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV. VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED
ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS DWPT TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONT WITH AREAS OF HAZY. LOWS WL RANGE FROM U50S NEK TO NEAR
70F SLV/CPV.
WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD ACRS OUR CWA...WITH AXIS
OF WESTERLY SHIFTING INTO CANADA AND NORTHERN MAINE. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTN COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIVE SE TWD THE NEK ON WEDS AFTN...IN THE
NW FLW ALOFT. GIVEN...DEEP SUBSIDENCE/CAP ACRS MOST OF OUR CWA...WL
NOT MENTION ANY POPS...BUT KEEP SCHC ACRS NORTHERN VT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY WL BE THE
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE
NEAR 20C WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 25C...WHICH WITH GOOD MIXING PRE
SOUNDING DATA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U80S MTNS TO M90S VALLEYS. SEE
CLIMO SECTION BLW FOR RECORDS. INTERESTING...WHEN VIEWING THE CAPE
PROFILES ON WEDS...SHOWS LOTS OF CAPE THRU 18Z WITH VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG...BUT AS MIXING INCREASES AND SFC DWPTS DROP FROM NEAR
70F BACK INTO THE 50S/L60S...CAPE VALUES DROP BTWN 500-1000
J/KG...AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT ANTICIPATED ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THUR...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. HOT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP
90 DEGREES...WITH PORTIONS OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY REACHING INTO THE MID 90S. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO FALL DURING
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...AND TIMING OF FROPA DOES NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND FOR ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY...SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER MONDAY DUE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS MAY OCCUR AT MPV AND SLK
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO SATURATION OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND/OR A
LOW STRATUS LAYER COULD FORM DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ANY
MIST/STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. THE OTHER POSSIBLE
DEGRADATION FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FROM A MARINE STRATUS
LAYER. CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER RUT AND MPV AS
IT DID MONDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AROUND
RUT. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE ENERGY SUPPORTING THIS FRONT HAS PULLED
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TEENS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER
20S...A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY JUNE 19TH-21ST WILL FEATURE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. THE FOLLOWING ARE A LIST OF RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES WITH LONG-
ESTABLISHED CLIMATE RECORDS.
JUNE 19TH:
BTV 100 (1995) / 78 (1896)
MSS 94 (1955) / 73 (1995)
MPV 95 (1995) / 67 (2001)
IV4 98 (1995) / 69 (1994)
MMN 78 (1995) / 61 (1995)
JUNE 20TH:
BTV 94 (1988) / 78 (1893)
MSS 91 (1953) / 71 (1953)
MPV 89 (1953) / 67 (1976)
1V4 97 (1995) / 70 (1976)
MMN 77 (1995) / 65 (1983)
JUNE 21ST:
BTV 97 (1941) / 72 (1893)
MSS 95 (1953) / 70 (1953)
MPV 92 (1953) / 66 (1953)
1V4 93 (1941) / 69 (1923)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 423 AM MONDAY...COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AT THE KVSF
(SPRINGFIELD VT) ASOS ARE KEEPING OBSERVATIONS FROM BEING
TRANSMITTED. FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/SLW
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BOYD/LOCONTO
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
826 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SURFACE WARM FRONTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW LOOKS GOOD.
ISOLD SHRA THREAT NOT THERE ATTM AND SHOULDN/T BE THIS
EVENING...PSBLY OVRNGT. JIGH/MID CLDS DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A TAD OVERNIGHT...THUS MILDER THAN
PAST NGTS. NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FCST.
AFTN DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE SCHC OF POPS
ACRS THE SLV AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
ON TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A STRONG DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE HGHT FIELDS ACRS
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...FAST WESTERLY FLW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MID RH
AND WEAK OMEGA FIELDS WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT...AND MAY PRODUCE A VERY SCHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS THE SLV.
MEANWHILE...SE ANTICYCLONIC FLW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF MAINE WL CONT TO ADVECT IN LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT ACRS
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. NAM12/BTV4 AND RAP ALL SHOW SFC TO 800MB RH
PROFILES INCREASING AFT 04Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME INDICATION OF
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT. WL MENTION CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/EASTERN VT/SLK TO
M60S CPV/SLV. CPV/SLV SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED BL...WHICH WL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AFTN/EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDNESDAY...
HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL REDEVELOP ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PUSH TWD
THE NE CONUS ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS BELT OF ACTIVE WESTERLY WINDS
LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY LATE WEDS. HOWEVER...AS STRONG LLVL WAA
DEVELOPS ON TUES AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED 5H VORTS SLIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NW FLW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUES. THINKING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION AND SVR POTENTIAL. FIRST LINE WL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WL ENTER OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z TUES. THIS
WL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE IN STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY SE
MARITIME AIR ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. BEST INSTABILITY BTWN 12Z-15Z
WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 600-900 J/KG. FEEL
INITIAL LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WL ADD LLVL MOISTURE AND BE THE
LEADING EDGE TO A MUCH MORE HUMID/WARMER AIRMASS FOR THE AFTN HRS.
MEANWHILE....SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DEVELOPS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
TUES AFTN...AND DIVES SE TWD THE SLV AND OUR NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY
TUES EVENING. THE BEST ULVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND
WESTERLY JET WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH BEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NAM/GFS SHOW 0-6KM SHEAR PARAMETERS BTWN 35 AND 40
KNOTS...WHILE CAPE VALUES INCREASE BTWN 2400 AND 2800 J/KG. BIG
QUESTION WL BE IF CONVECTION TRACKS SE INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA OR
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHERE THE WESTERLY
FLW IS THE STRONGEST. GIVEN...THE SVR PARAMETERS IF ANY CONVECTION
CROSSES THE BORDER...THE POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS...WITH SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LIKELY.
GIVEN...THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/TRACK OF
CONVECTIVE VORT...WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SCHC CENTRAL...AND NIL POPS SOUTH. ALSO...WL MENTION A BRIEF
STATEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN HWO. TEMPS
TUES WL BE TRICKY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT THINKING NEAR 80F
EASTERN VT TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV. VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED
ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS DWPT TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONT WITH AREAS OF HAZY. LOWS WL RANGE FROM U50S NEK TO NEAR
70F SLV/CPV.
WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD ACRS OUR CWA...WITH AXIS
OF WESTERLY SHIFTING INTO CANADA AND NORTHERN MAINE. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTN COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIVE SE TWD THE NEK ON WEDS AFTN...IN THE
NW FLW ALOFT. GIVEN...DEEP SUBSIDENCE/CAP ACRS MOST OF OUR CWA...WL
NOT MENTION ANY POPS...BUT KEEP SCHC ACRS NORTHERN VT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY WL BE THE
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE
NEAR 20C WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 25C...WHICH WITH GOOD MIXING PRE
SOUNDING DATA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U80S MTNS TO M90S VALLEYS. SEE
CLIMO SECTION BLW FOR RECORDS. INTERESTING...WHEN VIEWING THE CAPE
PROFILES ON WEDS...SHOWS LOTS OF CAPE THRU 18Z WITH VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG...BUT AS MIXING INCREASES AND SFC DWPTS DROP FROM NEAR
70F BACK INTO THE 50S/L60S...CAPE VALUES DROP BTWN 500-1000
J/KG...AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT ANTICIPATED ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THUR...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. HOT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP
90 DEGREES...WITH PORTIONS OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY REACHING INTO THE MID 90S. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO FALL DURING
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...AND TIMING OF FROPA DOES NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND FOR ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY...SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER MONDAY DUE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS MAY OCCUR AT MPV AND SLK
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO SATURATION OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND/OR A
LOW STRATUS LAYER COULD FORM DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ANY
MIST/STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. THE OTHER POSSIBLE
DEGRADATION FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FROM A MARINE STRATUS
LAYER. CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER RUT AND MPV AS
IT DID MONDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AROUND
RUT. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE ENERGY SUPPORTING THIS FRONT HAS PULLED
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TEENS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER
20S...A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY JUNE 19TH-21ST WILL FEATURE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. THE FOLLOWING ARE A LIST OF RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES WITH LONG-
ESTABLISHED CLIMATE RECORDS.
JUNE 19TH:
BTV 100 (1995) / 78 (1896)
MSS 94 (1955) / 73 (1995)
MPV 95 (1995) / 67 (2001)
IV4 98 (1995) / 69 (1994)
MMN 78 (1995) / 61 (1995)
JUNE 20TH:
BTV 94 (1988) / 78 (1893)
MSS 91 (1953) / 71 (1953)
MPV 89 (1953) / 67 (1976)
1V4 97 (1995) / 70 (1976)
MMN 77 (1995) / 65 (1983)
JUNE 21ST:
BTV 97 (1941) / 72 (1893)
MSS 95 (1953) / 70 (1953)
MPV 92 (1953) / 66 (1953)
1V4 93 (1941) / 69 (1923)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 423 AM MONDAY...COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AT THE KVSF
(SPRINGFIELD VT) ASOS ARE KEEPING OBSERVATIONS FROM BEING
TRANSMITTED. FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/SLW
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BOYD/LOCONTO
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SURFACE WARM FRONTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW LOOKS GOOD.
ISOLD SHRA THREAT NOT THERE ATTM AND SHOULDN/T BE THIS
EVENING...PSBLY OVRNGT. JIGH/MID CLDS DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A TAD OVERNIGHT...THUS MILDER THAN
PAST NGTS. NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FCST.
AFTN DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE SCHC OF POPS
ACRS THE SLV AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
ON TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A STRONG DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE HGHT FIELDS ACRS
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...FAST WESTERLY FLW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MID RH
AND WEAK OMEGA FIELDS WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT...AND MAY PRODUCE A VERY SCHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS THE SLV.
MEANWHILE...SE ANTICYCLONIC FLW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF MAINE WL CONT TO ADVECT IN LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT ACRS
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. NAM12/BTV4 AND RAP ALL SHOW SFC TO 800MB RH
PROFILES INCREASING AFT 04Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME INDICATION OF
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT. WL MENTION CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/EASTERN VT/SLK TO
M60S CPV/SLV. CPV/SLV SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED BL...WHICH WL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AFTN/EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDNESDAY...
HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL REDEVELOP ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PUSH TWD
THE NE CONUS ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS BELT OF ACTIVE WESTERLY WINDS
LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY LATE WEDS. HOWEVER...AS STRONG LLVL WAA
DEVELOPS ON TUES AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED 5H VORTS SLIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NW FLW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUES. THINKING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION AND SVR POTENTIAL. FIRST LINE WL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WL ENTER OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z TUES. THIS
WL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE IN STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY SE
MARITIME AIR ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. BEST INSTABILITY BTWN 12Z-15Z
WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 600-900 J/KG. FEEL
INITIAL LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WL ADD LLVL MOISTURE AND BE THE
LEADING EDGE TO A MUCH MORE HUMID/WARMER AIRMASS FOR THE AFTN HRS.
MEANWHILE....SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DEVELOPS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
TUES AFTN...AND DIVES SE TWD THE SLV AND OUR NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY
TUES EVENING. THE BEST ULVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND
WESTERLY JET WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH BEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NAM/GFS SHOW 0-6KM SHEAR PARAMETERS BTWN 35 AND 40
KNOTS...WHILE CAPE VALUES INCREASE BTWN 2400 AND 2800 J/KG. BIG
QUESTION WL BE IF CONVECTION TRACKS SE INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA OR
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHERE THE WESTERLY
FLW IS THE STRONGEST. GIVEN...THE SVR PARAMETERS IF ANY CONVECTION
CROSSES THE BORDER...THE POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS...WITH SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LIKELY.
GIVEN...THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/TRACK OF
CONVECTIVE VORT...WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SCHC CENTRAL...AND NIL POPS SOUTH. ALSO...WL MENTION A BRIEF
STATEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN HWO. TEMPS
TUES WL BE TRICKY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT THINKING NEAR 80F
EASTERN VT TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV. VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED
ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS DWPT TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONT WITH AREAS OF HAZY. LOWS WL RANGE FROM U50S NEK TO NEAR
70F SLV/CPV.
WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD ACRS OUR CWA...WITH AXIS
OF WESTERLY SHIFTING INTO CANADA AND NORTHERN MAINE. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTN COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIVE SE TWD THE NEK ON WEDS AFTN...IN THE
NW FLW ALOFT. GIVEN...DEEP SUBSIDENCE/CAP ACRS MOST OF OUR CWA...WL
NOT MENTION ANY POPS...BUT KEEP SCHC ACRS NORTHERN VT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY WL BE THE
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE
NEAR 20C WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 25C...WHICH WITH GOOD MIXING PRE
SOUNDING DATA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U80S MTNS TO M90S VALLEYS. SEE
CLIMO SECTION BLW FOR RECORDS. INTERESTING...WHEN VIEWING THE CAPE
PROFILES ON WEDS...SHOWS LOTS OF CAPE THRU 18Z WITH VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG...BUT AS MIXING INCREASES AND SFC DWPTS DROP FROM NEAR
70F BACK INTO THE 50S/L60S...CAPE VALUES DROP BTWN 500-1000
J/KG...AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT ANTICIPATED ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THUR...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. HOT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP
90 DEGREES...WITH PORTIONS OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY REACHING INTO THE MID 90S. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO FALL DURING
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...AND TIMING OF FROPA DOES NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND FOR ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY...SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER MONDAY DUE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...GULF OF MAINE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WITH
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS HAS MADE
IT INTO RUT/MPV UNDER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH SFC FLOW. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN THE
STRATUS LAYER LIFTS...WHICH DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. HAVE WENT WITH SCT028 ONCE STRATUS LAYER LIFTS WITH
VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS (UP TO 25
KTS) CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
FOR TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH VFR
AND GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS 17-22KTS). WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THINK MVFR STRATUS AT RUT/MPV IS LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY JUNE 19TH-21ST WILL FEATURE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. THE FOLLOWING ARE A LIST OF RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES WITH LONG-
ESTABLISHED CLIMATE RECORDS.
JUNE 19TH:
BTV 100 (1995) / 78 (1896)
MSS 94 (1955) / 73 (1995)
MPV 95 (1995) / 67 (2001)
IV4 98 (1995) / 69 (1994)
MMN 78 (1995) / 61 (1995)
JUNE 20TH:
BTV 94 (1988) / 78 (1893)
MSS 91 (1953) / 71 (1953)
MPV 89 (1953) / 67 (1976)
1V4 97 (1995) / 70 (1976)
MMN 77 (1995) / 65 (1983)
JUNE 21ST:
BTV 97 (1941) / 72 (1893)
MSS 95 (1953) / 70 (1953)
MPV 92 (1953) / 66 (1953)
1V4 93 (1941) / 69 (1923)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 423 AM MONDAY...COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AT THE KVSF
(SPRINGFIELD VT) ASOS ARE KEEPING OBSERVATIONS FROM BEING
TRANSMITTED. FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/SLW
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
545 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REGAINS CONTROL LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOT
WEATHER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 535 PM...AREA RADARS SHOW THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WEAKENING A LITTLE BIT BUT
STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE NOW RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY ASHTABULA TO BETWEEN LONDON
AND HAMILTON ONTARIO. ASSUMING THIS ACTIVITY MANAGES TO HOLD
TOGETHER...ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING THE ACTIVITY INTO
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AFTER 7 PM...AND EXTREME FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY AROUND 9 PM.
MEANWHILE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING A SECOND
AND MUCH NARROWER LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG A
REGION OF VERY SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOW SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT INTO LAKE ONTARIO OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY CLIPPING PART OF MONROE
COUNTY IN THE PROCESS. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY HELP TO TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP IT IN LINE WITH THESE EXPECTED
TRENDS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A FASTER ARRIVAL OF LOWER-END
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE ASIDE TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING. THE FULL
MID AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIVE A SHORTWAVE
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG
CONSENSUS AMONG MOST RUNS THE RGEM/NAM12/GFS/HRRR THAT THIS AREA
WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...CROSSING THE
NY/PA LINE BETWEEN 600 PM AND 800 PM...THEN REACHING BUFFALO AND
VICINITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES
ROCHESTER LATE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS...AND GIVEN GENERAL SUPPORT OF OTHER MODELS...THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A SMOOTHED HRRR
FORECAST OF THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS
CATEGORICAL POPS IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO SLOW MOVING CELLS. WHILE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME SHOWERS WHICH BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG A LAKE-BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE
LAKE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS DEVELOPING IS LOWER...AND WOULD
TEND TO IMPACT OFFSHORE AND ONTARIO PROVINCE ANYWAYS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AS MODEL CAPES REMAIN 500 J/KG OR LOWER...AND ONLY MODEST WIND SHEAR
AS WINDS ABOVE 700MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KTS. THIS WEAK
FLOW COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.50 INCHES...AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IS STILL
RELATIVELY SMALL...HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE HWO
FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AS WIND AND CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN WARM TO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR
MONDAY...WITH A PRIMARILY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM (HOT) AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL THAT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EAST OF
THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE. AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE EAST COAST HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE PLAIN MAY NOT GET MUCH BELOW 70F...WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA SEES TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEEPENING NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL CAUSE
THE RIDGE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND EXPAND NORTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES. SINCE THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA...WE WILL LOOK TO THE
MIDWEST FOR OUR UPCOMING SPELL OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THE INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL WARMING (H7 OF
10C) TO PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH LOWER 90S LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN.
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE WILL BRING SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO AREAS LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PA AND NEW
YORK STATE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...HAZE AND PATCHY
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER PA AND NEW YORK.
H85 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 20C WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE 90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES
AND ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
READINGS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 95
TO 100 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWO).
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE LONG ADVERTISED
SPELL OF MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE SETS UP ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PROCESS
WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NOTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WHILE THE
PASSING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT WILL
INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEAR 00Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT JHW...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BUF/IAG. WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON AN
EVENING TIMING...AS A LINE ACROSS OHIO GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS IN
HEAVY RAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST LATER
TONIGHT...AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ROC/ART...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISSUES AT BUF/IAG/JHW. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG
AT BUF/IAG/JHW...BUT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING DENSE FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE COULD IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE
PASSAGE OF A 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR AT SOME SITES. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION IN
TAFS AT ALL SITES...WITH ART THE ONLY LOCATION TO MEET CRITERIA
THOUGH OTHER SITES WILL BE CLOSE.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS...AND
LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPIER WATERS...THOUGH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 15 KTS OR
LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REGAINS CONTROL LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOT
WEATHER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIVE A SHORTWAVE
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG
CONSENSUS AMONG MOST RUNS THE RGEM/NAM12/GFS/HRRR THAT THIS AREA
WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...CROSSING THE
NY/PA LINE BETWEEN 600 PM AND 800 PM...THEN REACHING BUFFALO AND
VICINITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES
ROCHESTER LATE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS...AND GIVEN GENERAL SUPPORT OF OTHER MODELS...THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A SMOOTHED HRRR
FORECAST OF THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS
CATEGORICAL POPS IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO SLOW MOVING CELLS. WHILE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME SHOWERS WHICH BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG A LAKE-BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE
LAKE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS DEVELOPING IS LOWER...AND WOULD
TEND TO IMPACT OFFSHORE AND ONTARIO PROVINCE ANYWAYS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AS MODEL CAPES REMAIN 500 J/KG OR LOWER...AND ONLY MODEST WIND SHEAR
AS WINDS ABOVE 700MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KTS. THIS WEAK
FLOW COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.50 INCHES...AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IS STILL
RELATIVELY SMALL...HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE HWO
FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AS WIND AND CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN WARM TO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR
MONDAY...WITH A PRIMARILY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM (HOT) AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL THAT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EAST OF
THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE. AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE EAST COAST HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE PLAIN MAY NOT GET MUCH BELOW 70F...WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA SEES TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEEPENING NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL CAUSE
THE RIDGE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND EXPAND NORTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES. SINCE THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA...WE WILL LOOK TO THE
MIDWEST FOR OUR UPCOMING SPELL OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THE INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL WARMING (H7 OF
10C) TO PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH LOWER 90S LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN.
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE WILL BRING SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO AREAS LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PA AND NEW
YORK STATE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...HAZE AND PATCHY
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER PA AND NEW YORK.
H85 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 20C WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE 90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES
AND ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
READINGS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 95
TO 100 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWO).
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE LONG ADVERTISED
SPELL OF MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE SETS UP ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PROCESS
WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NOTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WHILE THE
PASSING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT WILL
INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEAR 00Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT JHW...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BUF/IAG. WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON AN
EVENING TIMING...AS A LINE ACROSS OHIO GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS IN
HEAVY RAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST LATER
TONIGHT...AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ROC/ART...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISSUES AT BUF/IAG/JHW. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG
AT BUF/IAG/JHW...BUT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING DENSE FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE COULD IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE
PASSAGE OF A 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR AT SOME SITES. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION IN
TAFS AT ALL SITES...WITH ART THE ONLY LOCATION TO MEET CRITERIA
THOUGH OTHER SITES WILL BE CLOSE.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS...AND
LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPIER WATERS...THOUGH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 15 KTS OR
LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
328 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DISAPPEAR BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER LAKES. SHOWERS
WHICH HAD DEVELOPED WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS THEY ENCOUNTERED THE UPPER RIDGE.
EXPECT THIS TRENT TO CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
BEING LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF
ROCHESTER. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DOWNSLOPE
NORTH OF THE THRUWAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S...DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER.
MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL DRIVE A SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG MOST RUNS THE
RGEM/NAM12/GFS/HRRR THAT THIS WILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. AS FORECAST...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN OHIO EARLY THESE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR APPEARING TO
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THIS LINE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION...CROSSING THE NY/PA LINE BETWEEN 600 PM
AND 800 PM...THEN REACHING BUFFALO AND VICINITY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME SHOWERS WHICH BREAK OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG A LAKE-BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONE ON THE LAKE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS DEVELOPING IS
LOWER...AND WOULD TEND TO IMPACT OFFSHORE ANYWAYS. SUPPORTED BY
RADAR...HAVE UPPED POPS IN WESTERN PORTIONS THIS EVENING...AND
SLOWED TIMING A BIT TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL TIME.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AS MODEL CAPES REMAIN 500 J/KG OR LOWER. WIND SHEAR VALUES
ALSO NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH LESS THAN 20 KTS ABOVE 700MB PER NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ONLY WEAK POP-UP ORDINARY CELL CONVECTION
EXPECTED WITH TOPS LESS THAN 30KFT. THIS SAID...SOME CELLS COULD
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.50 INCHES...AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES.
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING TO
MORE GENERIC SHOWERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WINDS WILL STAY
BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO FLATTEN A STRONG H5 RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN
PLACE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. AS THIS ENERGY LIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION. HOPEFULLY THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
A LITTLE BENEFICIAL RAIN IN THE PROCESS.
IN ITS WAKE...OUR ATTENTION WILL RETURN TO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
POTENT FEATURE DROPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AND
IDAHO/MONTANA ON TUESDAY...IT WILL HELP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO `POP`
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS H5 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY TO 594DM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WHILE 20C AIR
AT H85 WILL BE PUMPED FROM THE MID WEST TO OUR FORECAST AREA. LET
THERE BE NO DOUBT...WE ARE IN STORE FOR AT LEAST A PAIR OF FAIRLY
OPPRESSIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS COMMONLY IN THE 90S. MORE ON THAT IN A
MOMENT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY WHILE A WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE ONSET OF RISING H5 HGTS. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS (PWAT 1.5") MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY EAST OF ROCHESTER. THE
CONVECTION MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A MID LEVEL 1 DEG CAP...BUT SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING THEM IN THE FORECAST. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 15 KNOTS
THROUGH 25K FT...SO WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN...ANY
CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP COULD PRODUCE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PRESS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...
AND WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STEADY HGT RISES AND THE
REMOVAL OF THE DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP US RAIN
FREE. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT THOUGH AS A SOUTHERLY 30KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 70 ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE LAKE
PLAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
STRONG RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. SINCE THE CENTER OF THIS
BLOSSOMING RIDGE WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA...WE WILL
LOOK TO THE MID WEST FOR OUR UPCOMING SPELL OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THIS
IS WHERE H85 TEMPS OF 18 TO 20C WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL WARMING (H7 OF 10C) TO PUT A CAP ON ANY
CONVECTION...LEAVING US WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PROPEL OUR AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S...AND IN MANY CASES...INTO THE LOW 90S.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE DRONE OF AIR CONDITIONERS AS IT WILL
BE SULTRY BY ANY STANDARDS. SFC TEMPS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE CORE OF
THE STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE H85 TEMPS OF 18C
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SFC WINDS. THE ONLY RELIEF AWAY FROM
THOSE AIR CONDITIONERS WILL BE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER
VALLEYS WHERE ONE MAY BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE TEMPS NEAR 65...
ALONG WITH SOME MURKY FOG.
WEDNESDAY WILL SIMPLY BE HOT AND OPPRESSIVE AS THE AXIS OF THE 594
RIDGE (+2 STD) WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. H85 TEMPS OF 20C
WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS IN THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...SO WILL HIT THIS BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWO).
IF YOU LIKE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT (SEE ABV)...YOU WILL LOVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE EVERY BIT AS UNCOMFORTABLE AS TEMPS
WILL BARELY DROP BELOW 75 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. AT LEAST TOMATO
PLANTS LOVE THIS KIND OF WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS SPELL OF MID SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...AS OUR CONTROLLING H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN
DURING THIS PERIOD AS NORTH AMERICA WILL EXPERIENCE A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PROCESS
WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NOTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WHILE THE
PASSING OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT COULD SPARK SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEAR 00Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT JHW...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BUF/IAG. WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON AN
EVENING TIMING...AS A LINE ACROSS OHIO GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS IN
HEAVY RAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST LATER
TONIGHT...AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ROC/ART...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISSUES AT BUF/IAG/JHW. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG
AT BUF/IAG/JHW...BUT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING DENSE FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE COULD IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE
PASSAGE OF A 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR AT SOME SITES. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION IN
TAFS AT ALL SITES...WITH ART THE ONLY LOCATION TO MEET CRITERIA
THOUGH OTHER SITES WILL BE CLOSE.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS...AND
LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPIER WATERS...THOUGH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 15 KTS OR
LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DISAPPEAR BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER LAKES. SHOWERS
WHICH HAD DEVELOPED WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS THEY ENCOUNTERED THE UPPER RIDGE.
EXPECT THIS TRENT TO CONTINUE...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
BEING LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF
ROCHESTER. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DOWNSLOPE
NORTH OF THE THRUWAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S...DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER.
MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL DRIVE A SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG MOST RUNS THE
RGEM/NAM12/GFS/HRRR THAT THIS WILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. AS FORECAST...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN OHIO EARLY THESE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR APPEARING TO
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THIS LINE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION...CROSSING THE NY/PA LINE BETWEEN 600 PM
AND 800 PM...THEN REACHING BUFFALO AND VICINITY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME SHOWERS WHICH BREAK OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG A LAKE-BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONE ON THE LAKE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS DEVELOPING IS
LOWER...AND WOULD TEND TO IMPACT OFFSHORE ANYWAYS. SUPPORTED BY
RADAR...HAVE UPPED POPS IN WESTERN PORTIONS THIS EVENING...AND
SLOWED TIMING A BIT TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL TIME.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AS MODEL CAPES REMAIN 500 J/KG OR LOWER. WIND SHEAR VALUES
ALSO NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH LESS THAN 20 KTS ABOVE 700MB PER NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ONLY WEAK POP-UP ORDINARY CELL CONVECTION
EXPECTED WITH TOPS LESS THAN 30KFT. THIS SAID...SOME CELLS COULD
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.50 INCHES...AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES.
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING TO
MORE GENERIC SHOWERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WINDS WILL STAY
BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO FLATTEN A STRONG H5 RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN
PLACE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. AS THIS ENERGY LIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION. HOPEFULLY THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
A LITTLE BENEFICIAL RAIN IN THE PROCESS.
IN ITS WAKE...OUR ATTENTION WILL RETURN TO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
POTENT FEATURE DROPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AND
IDAHO/MONTANA ON TUESDAY...IT WILL HELP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO `POP`
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS H5 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY TO 594DM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WHILE 20C AIR
AT H85 WILL BE PUMPED FROM THE MID WEST TO OUR FORECAST AREA. LET
THERE BE NO DOUBT...WE ARE IN STORE FOR AT LEAST A PAIR OF FAIRLY
OPPRESSIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS COMMONLY IN THE 90S. MORE ON THAT IN A
MOMENT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY WHILE A WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE ONSET OF RISING H5 HGTS. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS (PWAT 1.5") MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY EAST OF ROCHESTER. THE
CONVECTION MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A MID LEVEL 1 DEG CAP...BUT SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL CERTAINLY BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING THEM IN THE FORECAST. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 15 KNOTS
THROUGH 25K FT...SO WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN...ANY
CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP COULD PRODUCE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PRESS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...
AND WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STEADY HGT RISES AND THE
REMOVAL OF THE DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP US RAIN
FREE. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT THOUGH AS A SOUTHERLY 30KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 70 ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE LAKE
PLAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
STRONG RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. SINCE THE CENTER OF THIS
BLOSSOMING RIDGE WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA...WE WILL
LOOK TO THE MID WEST FOR OUR UPCOMING SPELL OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THIS
IS WHERE H85 TEMPS OF 18 TO 20C WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL WARMING (H7 OF 10C) TO PUT A CAP ON ANY
CONVECTION...LEAVING US WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PROPEL OUR AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S...AND IN MANY CASES...INTO THE LOW 90S.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE DRONE OF AIR CONDITIONERS AS IT WILL
BE SULTRY BY ANY STANDARDS. SFC TEMPS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE CORE OF
THE STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE H85 TEMPS OF 18C
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SFC WINDS. THE ONLY RELIEF AWAY FROM
THOSE AIR CONDITIONERS WILL BE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER
VALLEYS WHERE ONE MAY BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE TEMPS NEAR 65...
ALONG WITH SOME MURKY FOG.
WEDNESDAY WILL SIMPLY BE HOT AND OPPRESSIVE AS THE AXIS OF THE 594
RIDGE (+2 STD) WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. H85 TEMPS OF 20C
WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS IN THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...SO WILL HIT THIS BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWO).
IF YOU LIKE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT (SEE ABV)...YOU WILL LOVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE EVERY BIT AS UNCOMFORTABLE AS TEMPS
WILL BARELY DROP BELOW 75 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. AT LEAST TOMATO
PLANTS LOVE THIS KIND OF WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS SPELL OF MID SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...AS OUR CONTROLLING H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN
DURING THIS PERIOD AS NORTH AMERICA WILL EXPERIENCE A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PROCESS
WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NOTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WHILE THE
PASSING OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT COULD SPARK SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEAR 00Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT JHW...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BUF/IAG. WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON AN
EVENING TIMING...AS A LINE ACROSS OHIO GRADUALLY TRACKS TOWARD THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS IN
HEAVY RAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST LATER
TONIGHT...AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ROC/ART...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISSUES AT BUF/IAG/JHW. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG
AT BUF/IAG/JHW...BUT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING DENSE FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE COULD IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE
PASSAGE OF A 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR AT SOME SITES. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION IN
TAFS AT ALL SITES...WITH ART THE ONLY LOCATION TO MEET CRITERIA
THOUGH OTHER SITES WILL BE CLOSE.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS...AND
LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPIER WATERS...THOUGH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 15 KTS OR
LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11:00 PM SATURDAY...ABSOLUTELY NO CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
PICTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PATCHY CIRRUS WILL STREAM SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM AROUND THE HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. HRRR SHOWS A NICE
DEPICTION OF THIS MOISTURE IN TERMS OF CU DEVELOPMENT. VALUES OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH INLAND WHERE CLEAR SKIES EXIST UP TO .75
INCHES IN PATCHES WHERE CU DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEA
BREEZE PUSHED JUST FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO KEEP TIP OF CAPE FEAR
CLEAR OF ANY CLOUDS. SOUNDING DATA AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LOCKED IN BELOW INVERSION JUST UNDER 7K FT
DRYING OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS PCP WATER DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OVER AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE CU DISSIPATE BY
EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MORNING.
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE MORE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH TEMPS DOWN BELOW 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR IN THIS PERIOD
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. WITH LIGHT
WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WE WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MIDDLE JUNE BOTH MON/TUE AT DAYBREAK...MAINLY LOW AND
MIDDLE 60S.
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT IS EVIDENT IN RH TIME-HEIGHT
PLOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 500 MB. CONCURRENTLY WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME FORM OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WELL INLAND TO GIVE US
A CRACK AT A BRIEF SHOWER OVER OUR NW ZONES 3PM-6PM MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
RIDGING CREATES SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST ON TUESDAY...AND ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...A DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL INHIBIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. 500MB RIDGE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WED-FRI ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL TRY TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS...BUT RECOGNIZE THAT STRONG RIDGES
TEND TO DELAY COLD FRONTS SO CURRENT PROGS MAY BE TOO FAST TO BRING
THROUGH FRONT SATURDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND WILL BUMP POP TO SCHC...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST 7 DAYS OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO BEFORE RISING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 18-20C BY FRIDAY...BUT
EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INHIBIT US FROM REALIZING THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THIS WARMTH ALOFT UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW THROUGH THE COLUMN...AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WED-SAT...LOW 90S MOST
PLACES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. MINS AT NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S WED NIGHT...AND AROUND 70 THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER DAYBREAK...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. A DEVELOPING RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL VEER WINDS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN PERIOD AROUND 4KFT. FOR THE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL
BECOME LIGHT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AT OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11:00 PM SATURDAY...LATEST COASTAL AND BUOY OBS SHOW AN
UNEXPECTEDLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVING ACROSS OUR NC WATERS...WITH
WINDS UP IN THE 20 KT RANGE ALONG THE COAST. SEAS HAVE KICKED UP
TO 4 TO 5 FT AS A RESULT. EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS OVERALL
GRADIENT RELAXES. HAVE ADDED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO OUR NC
WATERS FOR THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A CUTOFF LOW CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS WILL MEANDER AROUND BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE REACHING INTO LOCAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX FURTHER AND
EXPECT SEAS TO RESPOND BY SUBSIDING THROUGH SUN MORNING. LATEST
OBS SHOWING SEAS UNDER 6 FT IN LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE ALL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
COME DOWN FROM AROUND 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MORNING
ACROSS MOST WATERS. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF NE SWELL WITH
NEARLY A 9 SEC PERIOD AND LOCALLY WIND DRIVEN SHORTER PERIOD
SWELL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MARK A
TRANSITION IN WIND DIRECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY OVER
LAND...SLIPS OFFSHORE AND BRINGS WINDS AROUND WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION HASTENS THE TRANSITION...S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EASING TO S-SW 5 KT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SOUTH
WINDS MONDAY AS THE HIGH HOLDS JUST OFFSHORE OF OUR COAST.
WAVE DIRECTION BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HOLD FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WAVE HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME NEAR SHORE CHOPPINESS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCES WIND SPEEDS SEVERAL KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM CREATES LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING SE SWELL.
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
HAVE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH ONLY MINOR TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS TO SE OR SW. SINCE THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THE WAVE
SPECTRUM WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SWELL DOMINATED. A 2FT/8SEC E/SE
SWELL WILL START THE PERIOD...BUILDING TO A 3FT/8SEC SE SWELL AS
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL BE ONLY 1-2
FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUILDING TO 2-3 FT LATE THURSDAY DUE TO
THE INCREASED SWELL AMPLITUDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...SEVERE EPISODE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IS INCREASING. THE SOUTHERN FA WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH TO THE
WEST. MLCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2000 J/KG INTO THE SOUTHERN FA BY 00Z.
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH...CURRENTLY (20Z)
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE
MAY BE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20Z-00Z...ONE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SFC TROUGH INTERSECT.
16Z HRRR SHOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. SPC
HAS A MODERATE RISK AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS...WITH HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL
HELICITY BUT STRONG MID- LEVEL WINDS...MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT 850MB MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH...ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB COMPUTED CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG BY 03Z
ACROSS THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS FORCING FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
OF STRONG 250MB JET INTERSECTS THIS AREA TO THE NORTH...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE...LIKELY AFTER
00Z. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...ATTEMPTED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD IN AREAS WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND THE NORTHERN FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...AN ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG
CYCLONES FOR THE SUMMER SEASON IN THE PLAINS APPEARS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...LATE
IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.
A GRADUAL EASTERLY SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...A THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN FOR AVIATION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KNOTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KJMS-KFAR-KPKD LINE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE...THUS THE PERIOD OF VCTS DESIGNATED IN THE FORECASTS.
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HORUS ON MONDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/BRAMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS/TIMING
AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL IN A FEW STORMS. SPC DID DROP THAT AREA FROM THE SLIGHT
RISK AT THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S IN THAT AREA...AND ML CAPE VALUES
COULD EVENTUALLY TOP 2000 J/KG. THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT JAMESTOWN
DOES INDICATE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD INHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING FROM
WISHEK TO JUD AROUND 4 PM CDT. A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ALL TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STRONG/POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE
STATE...AGAIN ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ARE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING WITH DRIER WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK.
WHILE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE
SUITE...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY. HARD TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS CWA WIDE
WEDNESDAY WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE JET STREAM
POSITIONED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS OF 19 UTC...AN OCCLUDING FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH KMOT AND KBIS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH KJMS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO
BE IMPACTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
LINGER INTO TOMORROW ESPECIALLY AT KISN AND KMOT. WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...KDIK AND KBIS ON MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KINNEY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TONIGHT THE STORM TRACK SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS OF 2250Z. TIMED HOURLY POPS WITH THIS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 02Z OR SO THEN MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWING PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT EVEN THOSE SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND CLEAR OUT
DURING EARLY TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER NRN LAKE MI THAT
IS MOVING ESE. MODELS PROJECTING THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
LOWER MI EARLY TONIGHT...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE LOOKING AT THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...NAM AND SREF AS TO HOW THIS WILL PROGRESS. HRRR
WANTS TO WEAKEN THIS COMPLEX BEFORE IMPACTING THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE OTHER MODELS WANT TO MOVE IT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME POPS OVER LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
COMPLEX HAS TRAVELED A LONG WAY AND HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY IN
TERMS OF STRENGTH. WILL MOVE THIS COMPLEX EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW FAR TO TAKE CATEGORICAL POPS THOUGH. WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED. RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOULD KEEP ANY OVERNIGHT COMPLEXES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME HIGH/DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THEREFORE DID NOT
CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA OUT OVERNIGHT. MILD TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO BREAK OUT EITHER.
MODELS CONSISTENT ON TAKING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TS WITH THIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT SLOWS WE COULD GET SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST BUT FOR NOW WILL GO DRY.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE HEAT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH MORE MODERATE/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOL AIR DOWN ACROSS THE LAKES AND THEN BOTH MODELS TEND TO DIG THE
UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SSE WITH THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTING WEST...WILL
BRING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. MONDAY MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SHOWERS ARE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA AND THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG AND OR STRATUS WILL FORM.
THE WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP...SO DIDN`T HIT THE FOG TOO HARD
AND DID PUT SOME STRATUS IN NEAR CAK AND YNG. THE FOG AND CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO STRONG.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT CONVECTION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPINESS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE FROM PASSING TSRA WILL
CALM DOWN DURING EARLY EVENING.
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT S WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND BECOME SSW. WINDS OVER THE LAKE
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR TUE AFTERNOON DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
DUE TO THE TEMP DIFFERENCE WITH THE LAKE. SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY UNDER 15 KNOTS INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH INTO OHIO
FOR WED THEN SHIFTS EAST THU.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE THU AND
WINDS VEER TO NW THEN N FOR FRI BUT WIND SPEEDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LAKE SAT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ABE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL OHIO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. A STRONG HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH NW OHIO
THIS EVENING. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING EAST
OF I-71 AS OF 2230Z BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00-02Z. THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST WORDING...JUST SOME TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS IN GRIDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
TRIED TO TIME IT ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY GETTING OUT OF NW PA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HRRR DID WELL TIMING THIS INTO THE CLE METRO AREA
AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THAT TO TIME IT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL GET A LITTLE PUSH NORTH MONDAY AND
HAVE CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/TS. IT WILL BE
WARMER AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. RIDGE REALLY BUILDS FOR MID WEEK AND
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL BE
UP TOO...SO IT WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT BREAKING DOWN MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND BY THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A ZONAL FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TO OUR
NORTH AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GLFMX MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CLOSED OFF BY
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SO SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...SIDING MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SATURDAY MODELS
REDEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH A
NORTHWEST GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST. BOTH MODELS HINTING AT CONVECTION/SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SATURDAY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AS BY THEN THE VERY WARM AIR RETURNS
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST. EXPECT AN
EVENTUAL CLEAR OUT/BREAK UP IN THE WEST HOWEVER ACROSS THE EAST
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT FOR A
MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING FOG.
COULD SEE EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST AS WELL. MONDAY
MORNING THIS WILL BURN OFF FOR A VFR DAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED CONVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OF LESS MOST PLACES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ABE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL OHIO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. A STRONG HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 19Z COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE OHIO BORDER...SLOWING AND
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IS SETTLES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT MUCH REASON TO SUSPECT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN GARDEN VARIETY TS. TRIED TO TIME IT ACROSS THE
AREA...LIKELY GETTING OUT OF NW PA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HRRR DID WELL
TIMING THIS INTO THE CLE METRO AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO
THAT TO TIME IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL GET A LITTLE PUSH NORTH MONDAY AND
HAVE CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/TS. IT WILL BE
WARMER AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. RIDGE REALLY BUILDS FOR MID WEEK AND
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL BE
UP TOO...SO IT WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT BREAKING DOWN MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND BY THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A ZONAL FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TO OUR
NORTH AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GLFMX MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CLOSED OFF BY
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SO SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...SIDING MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SATURDAY MODELS
REDEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH A
NORTHWEST GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST. BOTH MODELS HINTING AT CONVECTION/SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SATURDAY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AS BY THEN THE VERY WARM AIR RETURNS
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST. EXPECT AN
EVENTUAL CLEAR OUT/BREAK UP IN THE WEST HOWEVER ACROSS THE EAST
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT FOR A
MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING FOG.
COULD SEE EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST AS WELL. MONDAY
MORNING THIS WILL BURN OFF FOR A VFR DAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED CONVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OF LESS MOST PLACES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1001 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER CROSSES MONDAY. UPPER
RIDGE TAKES HOLD FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...HAVE A COUPLE LINES OF CONVECTION ON THE RADAR. THE
FIRST ONE...A BROKEN LINE FROM NEAR ZZV TO HTS IS ALONG A DEWPOINT
GRADIENT/WARM FRONT. SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. ALSO
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS LINE...CLOSER TO
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AS OF NOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE SECOND...STRONGER LINE IS FARTHER WEST...RUNNING A LINE JUST
WEST OF CMH TO ILN. THIS CONVECTION LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE
LEADING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE LATEST RAP RUN.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT OVER W EDGES OF FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS N
INTO NRN LOWER MI...WHERE IT IS OCCLUDED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FIRST PROBLEM OF THE
DAY IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL FIRE UP ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF DAY GIVEN A STRONG DEW POINT
/ THETA E GRADIENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SAID DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IS SHALLOW...AND DISAPPEARS BY THE TIME ONE REACHES H85.
NONETHELESS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE EITHER SIDE
OF THE OHIO RIVER JUST W OF THE FCST AREA.
THE ABSENCE OF MORNING DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING TO FUEL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND PROBLEM OF THE DAY. WITH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT DISSIPATING...AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING HEADED JUST N
OF THE FCST AREA...BEST INSTABILITY IS SHOWN W AND N OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH SUNSET...KEEPING SEVERE THREAT TO A MINIMUM WITHIN THE
FCST AREA. FASTER STORM MOTION COMPARED WITH SATURDAY WILL ALSO
HELP TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ON E OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH IN
AREA COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM
TONIGHT WHERE IT RAINS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ON.
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE SMALL ENVELOP OF GUIDANCE...AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND HENCE
THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...SAW LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT
POTENTIAL ON HIGHS TODAY. DID EDGE LOWS TONIGHT UPWARD TOWARD
ADJMET GIVEN GUIDANCE ENVELOP OVERALL...DEW POINTS REMAINING HIGH
AND LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE SETTING UP SIMULTANEOUSLY. LAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXIT MONDAY...WITH A DRIER PATTERN
RETURNING FOR THE SHORT TERM. NAM...GFS...AND SREF COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON SOME ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION...SO WILL ADD LOW
POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THICKNESSES INCREASE IN THIS DEEP SUMMER
PATTERN...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA WIDE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S CELSIUS...TRANSLATING INTO LOWLAND 90S FAHRENHEIT.
SPECIFICS IN THESE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF LOCATIONS DO NOT GET
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...MAY NEED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES TO THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH A PATTERN CHANGE AFTER A FEW MORE DAYS OF
UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
WILL USHER IN NW FLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO HPC
THINKING IN THIS PERIOD THAT UTILIZES A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENS MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY STRATOCU DECK AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CIGS JUST
ABOVE 3 KFT IN SPOTS. BIGGER STORY IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE W...WHICH COULD REACH VICINITY OF HTS AS EARLY
AS 14Z. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WV LATER THIS MORNING...IT WILL
TEND TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER...NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP IN E
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. CODED UP SOME MVFR BUT OF COURSE...IFR WILL BE FOUND
RIGHT BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT ANYWHERE IT RAINS LATER TODAY AND / OR TONIGHT
SO TOUGH TO PEG LOCATION ALTHOUGH DID HIT TYGART VALLEY HARD LATE
TONIGHT.
LIGHT SE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SW AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT S TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
ASSOCIATED CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SUCH RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER DEPENDING UPON EXACT
MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE W. OF COURSE...TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD VARY.
THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT FORMATION OF POST-RAIN FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
109 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF HOURLY POPS AND WX THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED INTO NW OH EARLIER THIS EVENING QUICKLY
DETERIORATED...AND FOCUS WILL BE ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
IL. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHRA/TS TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT
THEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS INITIAL CLUSTER OF
ACTIVITY WITH SHRA/TS MOVING INTO WRN ZONES TOL-FDY AROUND
07-09Z...THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARD CLE-MFD BY
12Z. ZONES INDICATING MAINLY LIKELY WORDING GIVEN HIGH POPS LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY EAST OF SANDUSKY-MARION LINE.
MADE MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ON LOWS WITH MAINLY MID 60S ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S FOR NW PA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT WAVE AND FURTHER INCREASING
MOISTURE. BY MORNING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
REACHED INTO NWRN OHIO SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
NORTHWEST...AND CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE DAY WITH
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS ALL COUNTIES. TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR THE MORNING WEST
AND AFTERNOON EAST BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION AND PROGGED MOISTURE.
BY 00Z MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
A CHANCE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT EAST HALF BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN LACK OF FORCING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AFTERNOON CAPES BOTH DAYS APPROACH 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM12
THINKING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
BUT WILL KEEP DRY TUESDAY. TEMPS NEAR 90 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSRA WILL BE ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECTING FIRST
BAND OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS MOST OF AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST BAND. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER SOME BUT IN GENERAL DISSIPATE
CONVECTION OVER INDIANA THEN TRY AND REDEVELOP SOME SCT ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN OH ABOUT 08 TO 09Z AND PROGRESS THIS EAST. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO USE TEMPO SO WILL USE VCTS OR VCSH.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH DYING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY
AS AIRMASS HEATS UP. WITHOUT SHARP FRONT TO PROVIDE NARROW FOCUS TO
CONCENTRATE CONVECTION DON`T LIKE IDEA OF CARRYING TEMPO THIS FAR
OUT. DO FEEL THAT BULK OF ACTIVITY IN WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18 AND 23Z AND 19 TO 02Z IN THE EAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY THEN
VEER A LITTLE MORE TOWARD SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
521 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THE HOT RIDGE WILL
BREAKDOWN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FM
CENTRAL OH SWD INTO KY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO WRN PA THIS EVE. MESO
MDL DATA KEEPS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES
PRIOR TO 00Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST...TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY
APPROACH THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS BTWN 00-03Z. A STRIPE OF 850MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD SHIFTING MOIST
AXIS WILL DRIVE SHOWERS INTO THE CNTRL MTNS LATE TNT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES
SO CUT BACK THUNDER MENTION TO SCHC. DESPITE HIGH PWATS...MID-
UPPER FORCING IS STILL WEAK SO QPF AMTS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS VIA SLY FLOW SHOULD BRING
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MINS AOA GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HI PWAT AXIS ASSOCD WITH DISSIPATING FRONT/850MB LLVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD EARLY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LKLY MOVG INTO THE
SUSQ VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ERODE THRU THE DAY GIVEN HI DEWPTS AND CONTINUED MOIST SLY LLVL
FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THRU THE PD AS SUMMERTIME RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OH VLY. WITH RATHER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...SHOWER
CVRG SHOULD BECOME ISOLD-SCT AT BEST AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO
20-30 PCT FROM TOMORROW AFTN THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. MAV/MET/ECM
BLEND SUGGESTS HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70F E OF THE
MTNS...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
U.S. WITH CENTER OF HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SW FLOW IN
LOW LEVELS...TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND NOT QUITE AT HOT IN THE EAST.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH WED...BRINGING THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. SFC TEMPS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AREAWIDE AS MID LEVEL TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C WITH +18-20C AT 850MB
WILL SUPPRESS CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THU WILL REMAIN HOT FOR MOST...POSS EVEN HOTTER THAN WED IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY /WHERE MID 90S ARE LIKELY/. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP NW MTNS IN THE MID 80S...WHICH
IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS OUR UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER TROF. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS
TOUGH...AND HEDGED LOW POPS TOWARD DAYTIME DIURNAL MAX PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN AIRFIELDS BTWN 02-04Z
BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND NAMPARA MDL DATA. EXPECT FURTHER
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
ERN SXNS EARLY MONDAY. XPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATG
OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE PER TABULAR GUID. MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH HI
LLVL MSTR AND SLY FLOW PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER MON AFTN. THE MID- WEEK PERIOD
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
IMPACTS TO AVN DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HZ DURING
THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
THUR...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS WRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1054 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER EAST CENTRAL WI AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND
WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION. A
LOW LEVEL JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED THETAE ADVECTION WILL THEN FOCUS
OVER FAR NRN IA/SRN MN FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS
WARM ADVECTION IS ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NRN
CWA. ANOTHER BREEZY...HOT DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SRN WI ON TUE.
&&
AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES OVER SRN WI FOR TNT. THUS DRY...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TNT AND TUE. BREEZY SWLY WINDS FOR TUE
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MESOSCALE MODELS AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODELS DEVELOP A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND MOVE THE OUTFLOW-TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD REACH MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE AREAS FROM 7 TO 10 PM. MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY ON
ANYTHING REACHING RACINE OR KENOSHA BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HANGS UP.
WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KNOTS OF 6KM BULK SHEAR...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 PM. IF THE BOUNDARY REALLY GETS MOVING AND CAN MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AND FIGHT AGAINST THE WARM CAP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...THEN
THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE HIGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO OUR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE RIDGE OF THE CORFIDI
VECTORS LINES UP. A CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY DOWN INTO NORTHERN MILWAUKEE METRO IF HRRR PANS
OUT. THE 17Z HRRR SLOWLY MOVES THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI THIS
EVENING.
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. IT HAS TAKEN A
WHILE TO TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BUT SITES ARE JUST
MEETING CRITERIA WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN WI WILL BE BACK IN THE HOT...HUMID AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MODELS ARE NOW A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STAYS IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE 850 MB JET IS AT 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
CONVERGENCE HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THE 850 MB WINDS WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS WITH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE ENTRANCE REGION BY EVENING...WITH WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CAP. THE NAM WEAKENS THE RATHER STRONG CAP BETWEEN 7 TO 10 THSD
FT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG. THIS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.75 TO
1.90 INCHES...SO SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES THE JAMES BAY CANADA
REGION THURSDAY WITH THE JET MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A WEST/NORTHWEST JET ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER DIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WEAKENING AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
ON THURSDAY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY.
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WISCONSIN A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH HE MAIN LOW MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AND INTO ILLINOIS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY.
ONLY THE 12Z GFS KEEPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING. PREFER THE QUICKER 00Z ECMWF/06Z DGEX FOR NOW.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS ARE PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF A MADISON TO A MILWAUKEE LINE...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD UES/MKE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOT...HUMID AND BREEZY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...PEAKING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO SHORE...DIMINISHING OFF
SHORE DUE TO THE LAKE STABILIZING INFLUENCE. BUT...WAVES WILL BE
HIGHER TOWARD OPEN WATER. SO EITHER WAY...A ROUGH DAY OUT ON THE
WATER TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
728 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL
THEN RESULT IN LESSER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL WI
OR COMPLETE DISSIPATION. FORECAST IS NOW DRY FROM MADISON TO
MILWAUKEE AND SWD DUE TO THE CAP. A LOW LEVEL JET STREAM AND
ASSOCIATED THETAE ADVECTION WILL THEN FOCUS OVER FAR NRN IA/SRN MN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS WARM ADVECTION IS ENOUGH
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NRN CWA BUT WILL REASSESS
LATER TO SEE IF A DRY FCST IS MORE APPROPRIATE. ANOTHER BREEZY HOT
DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SRN WI ON TUE.
&&
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL WI WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES OVER SRN WI FOR TNT. THUS DRY...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TNT AND TUE. BREEZY SWLY WINDS FOR TUE
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MESOSCALE MODELS AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODELS DEVELOP A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND MOVE THE OUTFLOW-TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD REACH MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE AREAS FROM 7 TO 10 PM. MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY ON
ANYTHING REACHING RACINE OR KENOSHA BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HANGS UP.
WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KNOTS OF 6KM BULK SHEAR...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 PM. IF THE BOUNDARY REALLY GETS MOVING AND CAN MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AND FIGHT AGAINST THE WARM CAP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...THEN
THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE HIGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO OUR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE RIDGE OF THE CORFIDI
VECTORS LINES UP. A CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY DOWN INTO NORTHERN MILWAUKEE METRO IF HRRR PANS
OUT. THE 17Z HRRR SLOWLY MOVES THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI THIS
EVENING.
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. IT HAS TAKEN A
WHILE TO TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BUT SITES ARE JUST
MEETING CRITERIA WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN WI WILL BE BACK IN THE HOT...HUMID AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MODELS ARE NOW A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STAYS IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE 850 MB JET IS AT 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
CONVERGENCE HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THE 850 MB WINDS WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS WITH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE ENTRANCE REGION BY EVENING...WITH WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CAP. THE NAM WEAKENS THE RATHER STRONG CAP BETWEEN 7 TO 10 THSD
FT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG. THIS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.75 TO
1.90 INCHES...SO SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES THE JAMES BAY CANADA
REGION THURSDAY WITH THE JET MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A WEST/NORTHWEST JET ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER DIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WEAKENING AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
ON THURSDAY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY.
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WISCONSIN A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH HE MAIN LOW MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AND INTO ILLINOIS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY.
ONLY THE 12Z GFS KEEPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING. PREFER THE QUICKER 00Z ECMWF/06Z DGEX FOR NOW.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS ARE PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF A MADISON TO A MILWAUKEE LINE...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD UES/MKE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOT...HUMID AND BREEZY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...PEAKING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO SHORE...DIMINISHING OFF
SHORE DUE TO THE LAKE STABILIZING INFLUENCE. BUT...WAVES WILL BE
HIGHER TOWARD OPEN WATER. SO EITHER WAY...A ROUGH DAY OUT ON THE
WATER TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAT EACH ROUND MAY
HAVE.
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN ON TOWARD THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA STATE LINE. THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WAVE COMES THROUGH AND THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. A 700-800MB CAP HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH THE BEST
COMBINATION OF CAP-FREE ENVIRONMENT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND BECOMES STATIONARY TOWARD THE MN/IA STATE LINE
TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN
PUSH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN
AND EASTERN NE/SD WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND PULL THE WARM FRONT BACK UP TO THE NORTH. SO...AS
CONVECTION RE-IGNITES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 6-12Z TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE 12-18Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
SURGE OF MOISTURE NOSING UP CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN AND
IA...THINKING THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
IN THAT REGION. HOWEVER...IF IT CAN DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND RACE
EASTWARD ALONG THE LLJ NOSE THEN IT COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE WIND SHEAR IS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS
UNDER THE INVERSION BUT 0-3KM MUCAPE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT
1000-2000 J/KG. OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN AS
WELL GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE FORCING WILL HAVE TO COME FROM
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES WHICH APPEARS BETTER OFF
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
HOT...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT UP IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD A SECOND LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.ANY SEVERE
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WOULD BE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INSTABILITY BUILDING JUST AHEAD OF IT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN IOWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
ITS BEST CHANCES OF SEEING A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF UP TO AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP
INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM BOTH
THE 18.12Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING LIFTING
UP INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FRONT...IT MAY BE A GOOD SETUP FOR AN
MCS TO DEVELOP OFF TO THE WEST AND RUN EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
REGION BEYOND THIS WITH COOLER AIR DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
636 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 90 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLIER CONVECTION HAD MOVED OFF INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ON LOW LEVEL JET LATER
THIS EVENING...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z-06Z
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 18.20Z HRRR INDICATES THIS TO
BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THUS HAVE JUST KEPT THE VCSH AT BOTH
SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY
KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY MIDDAY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS AT KRST AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS
BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FOLLOWING TIME
PERIODS...THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND THEN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA THAT HAS
BEEN HIT THE HARDEST RECENTLY IS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH ANYWHERE
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES FALLING OVER THE PAST WEEK. AREA RIVERS WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE RISE DUE TO THESE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT WHETHER
ANY OF THEM GO INTO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT IS UNCERTAIN SINCE
MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY FAST MOVERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
222 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY BROAD/FLAT UPR TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING FM THE ERN PAC TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION EARLY IN THE FCST
PERIOD AS THE TROF AXIS CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THEN
PATTERN WL UNDERGO READJUSTMENT DURING THE WEEK...SO THAT BY NEXT
WEEKEND THERE SHOULD BE A SPRAWLING UPR HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/PRAIRIE
PROVINCES OF CANADA...AND WITH UPR TROFS ALONG BOTH COASTS.
WANT TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT FCSTG TOO MUCH PCPN GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
WX...BUT PROGGED PATTEN CERTAINLY SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL
PCPN AMNTS. TEMPS WL START OUT WELL ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND BACK
CLOSER TO...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ABV...SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT. ADDED SMALL POPS OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 21Z IN CASE THEY MAKE IT. OTHERWISE...AN
ENERGETIC JET STREAK IS PUSHING A SHORTWAVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ND/SD BORDER AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AS THIS CONVECTION
ORGANIZES LATER TODAY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE CHALLENGING FORECAST STARTS OUT RIGHT OFF THE BAT
THIS EVENING AND ONLY BECOMES MORE COMPLEX THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT/MID-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW. THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
WEAKEN BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THAT
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT DOES PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND DO NOT ENTIRELY TRUST THAT EVERYTHING WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED BY 00Z. ADDED CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THINKING AT THIS TIME THAT THE MAIN
SHOW FOR TONIGHT WILL GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
THIS EVENING AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LOST AND A 40-50KT
LLJ DEVELOPS. TRACKING THIS MCS IS TRICKY DUE TO MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MOVING NORTHEAST...WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT). A ROUGH GUESS WOULD TRACK THE MCS TO THE ENE ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ...WHILE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OR
ESE TOWARDS THE INSTABILITY. ELEVATED CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG AT
09Z SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE INTO N-C AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH (15KFT)...SO THINK THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE BEEFY LLJ OVERHEAD
AND HEAVY RAINFALL (PWATS 1.7 INCHES AND K-INDEX OF 41). THE MCS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NE WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT.
MONDAY...THE MCS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
EXITING DURING THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LEFT
OVER FROM THE MCS WHICH SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS IN THE MORNING.
VERY WARM TEMPS AT 850MB AND THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PARTIALLY
ERODE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING WE
RECEIVE WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
PM HOURS. WILL HAVE A COOL FRONT PUSH INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...THOUGH ITS NOT CLEAR IF
CONVECTION CONTINUES ON THE TAIL OF THE MCS...OR REDEVELOPS ON
OTHER BOUNDARIES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KTS AND ML CAPES
OF 1500 J/KG SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP AND MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. CONVECTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER CONCERNS. WILL GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F NORTH TO UPPER
80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MON NGT THROUGH NEXT SUN. THE FLOW WITHIN THE BASE
OF THE BROAD UPR TROF ACRS THE NWRN PART OF THE CONUS WAS PRETTY
STG FOR JUNE...WITH UPR SPEED MAX OF NEARLY 150 KTS WORKING EWD
ACRS THE PAC NW. THE JET WORKING E COMBINED WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT
IN VERY ACTIVE WX ACRS THE FCST AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OSCILLATES N AND S FOR A COUPLE DAYS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SVR
CONVECTION ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RGN...WITH
QUESTION BEING WHETHER/WHEN INDIVIDUAL EVENTS AFFECT THE FCST
AREA. TRIED TO ADD A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO POPS...BUT WITH PCPN
CHCS GENERALLY TIED TO POSN OF FRONT AND THAT DEPENDING ON PRIOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT/MVMT...THERE WAS NO WAY TO REALLY GET ARND HAVING
SEVERAL PERIODS WITH HIGHER END CHC POPS AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE
AREA.
ONCE THE MAJOR SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF CROSSES THE RGN
MID-WEEK...A COUPLE DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BUT IT WL BE HARD TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
PCPN AS FCST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES...AND IN A LCN SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONVECTION FIRING ARND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING PLAINS UPR HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HOW FAR SOUTH THEY WILL MOVE...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS RHI/CWA/AUW WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO CREATE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THINK STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO GRB/ATW LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THEREAFTER...SOME STRONG STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON ASSUMING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT GRB
AND ATW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE 17.12Z NAM/WRF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF MODERATE TO STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. FURTHER EAST...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER IT WILL ADVANCE INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE 17.12Z HRRR SHOWED THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AFTER 1 PM AND
MAY MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 4 PM.
DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
425 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THEN FOR
THE MOST PART IS A COOLER AND DRY PERIOD. THE WAVERING FRONT
WHICH DOMINATED THE SHORT TERM WILL STALL PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW ACROSS MN...UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN IT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER GOOD RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE HAVE SEEN AT THAT POINT...THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HIGHER RUNOFF SEEN.
DEEP SHEAR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND DEPENDING ON TIMING..INSTABILITY
MAY BE BOUNTIFUL.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
THU-SAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...
AND THEY WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 17.1930Z AND 17.2330Z...
AND MAY MOVE THROUGH KLSE BETWEEN 17.21Z AND 18.01Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. AT CURRENT TIME...THINKING THAT THESE STORMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES...SO THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAF FORECAST.
AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS ON MONDAY MORNING...THE SOUTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
425 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN OPPORTUNITIES FROM MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS STARTING TO APPEAR AS THOUGH NO ONE
AREA MAY BE FAVORED FOR MULTIPLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS COULD
END UP WITH MULTIPLE INCHES. THE SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE
MOVING...WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTREME RAINFALL IT APPEARS.
THEREFORE...IT SEEMS RIVER RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA IN THE
NEXT WEEK WITH NO PREFERENCE TO ANY GIVEN RIVER. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAINFALL RATES WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS COULD BE QUITE HIGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
425 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE 17.12Z NAM/WRF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF MODERATE TO STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. FURTHER EAST...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER IT WILL ADVANCE INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE 17.12Z HRRR SHOWED THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AFTER 1 PM AND
MAY MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 4 PM.
DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
425 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THEN FOR
THE MOST PART IS A COOLER AND DRY PERIOD. THE WAVERING FRONT
WHICH DOMINATED THE SHORT TERM WILL STALL PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW ACROSS MN...UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN IT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER GOOD RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE HAVE SEEN AT THAT POINT...THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HIGHER RUNOFF SEEN.
DEEP SHEAR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND DEPENDING ON TIMING..INSTABILITY
MAY BE BOUNTIFUL.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
THU-SAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
623 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
QUIET/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GOOD
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ON THIS FATHERS DAY. MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO MN. A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN SD TO FAR WESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN POTENTIAL TIMING/OUTCOMES
FOR THE CONVECTION TONIGHT...ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SHRA/VCTS/CB IN THE 05-09Z TIME-FRAME FOR NOW. ONCE THE COMPLEX
BEGINS TO EVOLVE...LATE SHIFTS/TAF UPDATES CAN FINE TUNE THE
EXPECTED TIMING/CONDITIONS...INCLUDING ADDING A WESTERLY WIND GUST
GROUP...FOR ITS ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN
TO VFR FOR LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING AS THE COMPLEX MOVE INTO EASTERN
WI AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
425 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN OPPORTUNITIES FROM MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS STARTING TO APPEAR AS THOUGH NO ONE
AREA MAY BE FAVORED FOR MULTIPLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS COULD
END UP WITH MULTIPLE INCHES. THE SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE
MOVING...WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTREME RAINFALL IT APPEARS.
THEREFORE...IT SEEMS RIVER RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA IN THE
NEXT WEEK WITH NO PREFERENCE TO ANY GIVEN RIVER. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAINFALL RATES WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS COULD BE QUITE HIGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
425 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1236 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PROMINENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION EARLIER TODAY WHICH
IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXISTS OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST OVER MINNESOTA. STORMS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
FAR. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...BUT TEMPS ARE ONLY THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...AND ARE COOLER OVER WISCONSIN SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE EAST...PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT IS PASSING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. TRACKING
THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION TAKES IT NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY...SO WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF THIS LINE. CAN
STILL EXPECT MORE SPOTTY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY IN THE
EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHEN A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK. STILL THOUGH...THE
MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT 300-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT WONDER IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE A NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SPLIT...WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH. IF SOME SORT OF BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DOES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...FIGURE IT WILL BE WEAKENING
AS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING SINCE
INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING. THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
BY 09Z AND WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNAL CU DEVELOP OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE COOLER
TEMPS WILL RESIDE AT 850MB AND THERE IS ENHANCED RH. LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODELS DIFFERED IN HOW QUICKLY THEY TOOK THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE EAST REMAINS DRY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH PLENTY
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MODELS INDICATED A WEST TO EAST AXIS OF MAX QPF MOVING NORTH ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
TIMING DIFFERENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED WITH VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
TDH
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...CLOUDS REFORMING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT. THEREFORE USED THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT FASTER DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...PUSHED THE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH
INTO MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK BASED ON CURRENT CLOUDS.
SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN A LITTLE EARLIER AND MORE
EXTENSIVELY...TWEAKED A FEW OVERNIGHTS A LITTLE UPWARD SINCE THE
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT WHATEVER HEAT FROM ESCAPING. ALSO...WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS BEGUN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
MEANWHILE...ONE MCS LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT
EITHER WAY WILL COMPLETELY MISS OUR REGION BY DIVING WAY SOUTH OF
IT.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS
MICHIGAN...THAT LOOKS TO TRACK MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMPLEX WAS
ALSO MOVING INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR...BUT ALSO IS MOVING INTO A
REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS COMPLEX GETTING
TO OUR DOORSTEP BY AROUND 600 AM...IN MUCH WEAKEN FORM. OUR GRIDS
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE BY 700 AM SO NEED TO CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...PARTLY CLOUDY FAR
NORTH. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 15 MPH LOCALLY AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE A
REDUCTION IN WIND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 IN MOST
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW OR MID 80S. STILL SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...SO HIGHS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION AND SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THEY WILL ALSO BRING THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE
SEASON TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY A VERY WARM AIR MASS ON
THURSDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES C...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS. THE ONE THING
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING RECORD TERRITORY /THE RECORD FOR
ALBANY FOR THURSDAY JUNE 21ST IS 97 FROM 1938/ IS THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUDS AROUND FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH OF A STRONG SW FLOW TO DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS TO REALLY GET TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S. WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...WE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POPS FOR THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS SHOWS THE
ACTIVITY TO BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AND NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED...SO WILL
ONLY KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...WE
WILL MENTION THUNDER...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. WE WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER AS SOME DRIER
AIR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH VALUES 10-16 DEGREES C. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WED/THURS. MOST AREAS
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S.
FINALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH JUST
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS A WARM FRONT FROM A
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HINTED THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD CUT OFF OVER THE REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE FOR MONDAY AS WELL.
WITH THE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP AND LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUN/MON...WITH
GENERALLY 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTANCE USED FOR TAF BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM PAST 2 NIGHTS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL TAF SITES BY 10Z WITH KPSF GOING TO
IFR. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ALL SITES BY 18Z. SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AN VARIABLE MODAY EVENING.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MIGHT SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH (<25
PERCENT) TO NOT EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE AFTN AND AT NIGHT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA KALB/KGFL...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA AT
KPOU/KPSF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL RECOVERY TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100
PERCENT. MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 PERCENT...THEN RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 18...97 SET IN 1957
JUNE 19...94 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20...97 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22...95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 18...93 SET IN 1994
JUNE 19...97 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20...94 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22...94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 18...93 SET IN 1957
JUNE 19...91 SET IN 1957
JUNE 20...95 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21...97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22...96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
CLIMATE...IAA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1050 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD BUT THE OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN BLUE DOME AND
DUBOIS ARE STILL GUSTING UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AND THE RAPID UP DATE
MODEL FAVORS A COUPLE MORE HOURS YET BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DROPS OFF. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO 1 AM. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
UPDATE...A VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
ARCO DESERT AND FOOTHILLS LEADING INTO DUBOIS AND ASHTON AREA THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN WAS EXPIRED IN FAVOR OF KEEPING A WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT. RS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST PER WV SAT IMAGERY. CU FIELD SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WEAK STRATOCU FIELD HAS
PUSHED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS TODAY WHICH HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL MIXING. THUS
THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS
THE ARCO DESERT HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY.
WINDS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WARNED AREA SHOULD INCREASE AS CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. HRRR MODEL INDICATES PEAK SPEEDS OCCURING BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWIFT DROPOFF DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
TROUGH AXIS KICKS PAST EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING BUT LEAVES BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PACNW. SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH TROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT JET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH SO WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN. LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY BUT WILL LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS AFTER CURRENT WIND EVENT
IS OVER.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF PACNW COAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS CENTER
OF UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND...LEAVING
EASTERN IDAHO ON THE FRINGE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH
DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED RANGE. OVERALL MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST. DMH
AVIATION...THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE LATE
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. ANY REAL THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MONTANA
AND WYOMING BORDERS. KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO MONTANA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOSER TO
THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN JUST THE
MONTANA BORDER TUESDAY. THE STORY IS THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE WINDS
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF ZONES 409/410/411/412 ARE STILL
VALID THROUGH 9PM. WE WILL LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW BUT NO
RED FLAG ISSUES AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP DESPITE GUSTY WINDS.
MIDWEEK WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WE WILL
SEE RAPID DRYING EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO EXPECT POOR
NIGHTTIME RECOVERY AT RIDGETOP. WHILE MORE PRECISE DETAILS ON WHERE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FORMING BY THE WEEKEND...IT
DOES APPEAR A DISTINCT PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHWEST/MONSOON FLOW
IS COMING. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MDT TUESDAY BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE
IDZ019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MDT TUESDAY IDZ020.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL MS VALLEY RESULTING IN WSW
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE
PATTERN TO AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW DIGS TO THE
SE AND A SHRTWV OVER MT LIFTS INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER N CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN MN. AN
MCS FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MN AND FAR WRN WI WAS FUELED BY A
40-50 KT LLJ PROVIDING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE 850 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
DRYING MID LEVELS...AREA OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT WHERE MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TODAY...THE FOG WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE MAINLY TO THE EAST INTO CNTRL AND NRN WI.
HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH...SOME SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO W AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BY
LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TSRA WITH SMALL HAIL IF THE CONVECTION AS THE
CONVECTION OVER WI WEAKENS AND GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS
INTO UPPER MI. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING AS
FAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THINNING CLOUDS FROM S TO N BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
INLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MN OR NRN WI DURING
PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO THE AREA. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...CAPPING WILL LIMIT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE 850 MB FRONT AND FORCING FROM ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE
FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW NEARS FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER MN/S ONTARIO/W LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF HOLDING ONTO A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOVERING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 06Z NAM NOW BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
/ECMWF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY SLIDING INTO CANADA/...TO A HALF IN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH /GFS WITH A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH/. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY GREAT ASSUMPTIONS YET...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIALLY
ABOUT 3HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO SPEED UP OFF THE
ECMWF...SO THAT THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE BEING E OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1K
J/KG...MLLAPSE RATES 6-8C/CM /HIGHEST SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON/.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE AND RESIDE OVER N ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ROTATING LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY. MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY UP TO
800MB/ COULD SPELL RH VALUES NEAR 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS OR GREATER OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. THE COOLEST AIR AT 850MB WILL BE FROM 00-18Z
FRIDAY...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SLIDE IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRIEFLY PUSH A RIDGE
THROUGH UPPER MI THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES IN
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN AT 500MB THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE BE THE RULE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER N/C WI...WILL BE
SATURDAY...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LVL WAVE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER SD/NE AND ANOTHER OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
EXPECT DRY WX THRU THIS MORNING UNDER DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT SINCE
LLVL MSTR WL BE LINGERING AT SAW...FOG/ST AND IRF CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT THAT LOCATION THRU SUNRISE UNTIL THE ADVENT OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT A WARM FNT MOVING S-N THROUGH THE AREA TO BRING SOME
SCT -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ON TUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AT CMX/IWD
CLOSER TO DISTURBANCE SWINGING NEWD THRU MN. BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT CMX WITH UPSLOPE ESE WIND AHEAD
OF THE SFC WARM FNT. INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF SCT LO CLDS ATTM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. ONCE THE WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N OF UPR
MI TNGT...EXPECT A RETURN OF DRY WX/VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LLWS
UNDER STRENGTHENING SW LLJ AT SAW/CMX...WHICH WL BE LESS EXPOSED TO
THE SSW FLOW THAN IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL QUEBEC...THROUGH
LS...TO SD WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. THE SD LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS W LS AND
MN THIS EVENING...BEFORE MAKING IT TO N CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS E LS. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLIDE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
503 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL MS VALLEY RESULTING IN WSW
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE
PATTERN TO AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW DIGS TO THE
SE AND A SHRTWV OVER MT LIFTS INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER N CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN MN. AN
MCS FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MN AND FAR WRN WI WAS FUELED BY A
40-50 KT LLJ PROVIDING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE 850 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
DRYING MID LEVELS...AREA OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT WHERE MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TODAY...THE FOG WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE MAINLY TO THE EAST INTO CNTRL AND NRN WI.
HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH...SOME SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO W AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BY
LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TSRA WITH SMALL HAIL IF THE CONVECTION AS THE
CONVECTION OVER WI WEAKENS AND GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS
INTO UPPER MI. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING AS
FAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THINNING CLOUDS FROM S TO N BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
INLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. ERLY WINDS NORTH WILL KEEP
READINGS LOWER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...CAPPING WILL LIMIT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE 850 MB FRONT AND FORCING FROM ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE
FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW NEARS FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER MN/S ONTARIO/W LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF HOLDING ONTO A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOVERING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 06Z NAM NOW BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
/ECMWF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY SLIDING INTO CANADA/...TO A HALF IN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH /GFS WITH A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH/. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY GREAT ASSUMPTIONS YET...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIALLY
ABOUT 3HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO SPEED UP OFF THE
ECMWF...SO THAT THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE BEING E OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1K
J/KG...MLLAPSE RATES 6-8C/CM /HIGHEST SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON/.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE AND RESIDE OVER N ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ROTATING LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY. MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY UP TO
800MB/ COULD SPELL RH VALUES NEAR 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS OR GREATER OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. THE COOLEST AIR AT 850MB WILL BE FROM 00-18Z
FRIDAY...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SLIDE IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRIEFLY PUSH A RIDGE
THROUGH UPPER MI THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES IN
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN AT 500MB THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE BE THE RULE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER N/C WI...WILL BE
SATURDAY...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LVL WAVE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER SD/NE AND ANOTHER OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
EXPECT DRY WX THRU THIS MORNING UNDER DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT SINCE
LLVL MSTR WL BE LINGERING AT SAW...FOG/ST AND IRF CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT THAT LOCATION THRU SUNRISE UNTIL THE ADVENT OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT A WARM FNT MOVING S-N THROUGH THE AREA TO BRING SOME
SCT -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ON TUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AT CMX/IWD
CLOSER TO DISTURBANCE SWINGING NEWD THRU MN. BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT CMX WITH UPSLOPE ESE WIND AHEAD
OF THE SFC WARM FNT. INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF SCT LO CLDS ATTM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. ONCE THE WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N OF UPR
MI TNGT...EXPECT A RETURN OF DRY WX/VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LLWS
UNDER STRENGTHENING SW LLJ AT SAW/CMX...WHICH WL BE LESS EXPOSED TO
THE SSW FLOW THAN IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL QUEBEC...THROUGH
LS...TO SD WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. THE SD LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS W LS AND
MN THIS EVENING...BEFORE MAKING IT TO N CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS E LS. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLIDE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
250 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Water vapor satellite imagery as of 2 am
indicated a long wave trough over the area with the jet diving
south of the area into Oregon. This will place Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho on the cold and unstable side of the
jet today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms once
again developing in the late morning and afternoon mainly over the
mountains. A couple vort maxes noted on water vapor this morning
that will be monitored today. One is off Vancouver Island and will
miss our area to the west and south. Second one over southern
British Columbia will drop south over the North Washington
Cascades this morning. With the atmosphere more stable during the
morning models including the HRRR are not very excited about
anything more than isolated showers this morning over the
Cascades. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable after 18z
convection will begin firing over the mountains. The best
instability will lie over the Northern Washington mountains and
North Idaho Panhandle with models indicating uncapped CAPES of
200-500 J/KG. This activity will decrease early this evening and
then likely end after sunset. Abundant boundary layer moisture
will lead to patchy fog in the northern valleys early this morning
and again late tonight. JW
Wednesday through Monday: The big pattern change to drier and
warmer conditions will begin Wednesday as rapid 500mb ht rises of
as much as 90 meters by Thursday morning within the amplifying
mid- level ridge axis across the Pacific Nw produces a more stable
air- mass. This warming should last into at least Thursday as the
low- level thermal ridge strengthens partly in response to the
offshore cyclone digging very slowly down the Sw BC and Pacific Nw
coasts. We should see 850mb temps of 15c to 20c in this warm
southerly surge by Thurs (usually associated with high temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s for Ern Wa), then potentially shifting
east into Id and Wrn Montana by Fri. We continue to see decent
consistency in model guidance confirming that Thursday will be one
of, if not the warmest day of the week. That said, we warmed fcst
high temps Thurs by 3-5F. This eastward shift of the thermal ridge
will be in response to the impending cold front fcst by guidance
to move across the Cascades beginning Friday. Though the GFS and
ECMWF are surprisingly good agreement with their latest runs three
to four days out, there are still significant challenges mainly
due to how quickly a series of speed maxes eject from the offshore
trough and drives the cold front east through the region. Even
more complicated will be deciding on the nocturnal thunder threat, as
a clear signal in the form of an elevated plume of moist
convective instability above 700mb develops Thurs Nt through
Friday Nt. We delayed the onset of the first pcpn threat until
Thursday night...which will be the precursor to the cold front and
more widespread pcpn late Friday. For Saturday...a significant
post cold front short-wave lifts NE into the Cascades on both the
GFS and ECMWF, providing a second round of showers and thunder.
Following a possible short break in pcpn Sunday, it looks as if
the entire offshore trough finally ejects NE across the Cascades
and advances quickly trough Id and into BC and Alberta. When this
ejection takes place, it will essentially be the main event and
provide the best chance of widespread strong thunder. Again...
this is six days out, so we`ll watch it closely for timing
changes. bz
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper trough will linger over the region, with
scattered showers around the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE TAF sites and chances
toward KPUW/KLWS tonight. VFR conditions are expected to dominate,
but lcl MVFR cigs/vis are possible especially toward KCOE where
precipitation may be heavier. Additionally as the precipitation
ends toward morning, there is some threat MVFR/isolated IFR
stratus toward the east. Tuesday afternoon will see primarily VFR
conditions with a scattered shower threat developing again, before
dissipating after dark. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA AND SEVERE
CHANCES TODAY THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEB WITH
A WARM FRONT EAST ALONG THE NEB/SD MN/IA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WI.
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT SOME COOLER/DRIER
AIR HAD SETTLED INTO NORTHERN MN/WI. STRONGER OF WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION CENTERED ON 850MB AHEAD OF THE LOW FUELING CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM
AREA RADARS INDICATE CONVERGENCE IN THE 850MB WIND FIELD OVER
NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN WI...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WEAKER AND UNDER SOME WARMER 850-700MB TEMPS. CONVECTION ACROSS WI
LIMITED TO SCT SHRA FROM NEAR KGRB TO SOUTH OF KEAU...CLOSER TO THE
EDGE OF THE WARM 850-700MB TEMPS/CAPPING.
NO BIG ERRORS NOTED WITH 19.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. HOWEVER GFS
AGAIN SOME 2-7F TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SOLUTIONS WITH RATHER SIMILAR OUTCOMES FOR
TODAY THRU THU NIGHT...THOUGH GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH
PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DPROG/DT OF 500MB
HGTS AT 19.00Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z AND 18.00Z VERIFIED
WELL ACROSS NOAM WITH CURRENT RUNS TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. MODEL CONSENSUS LOOSENS THRU TONIGHT
AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NAM/GFS FASTER THAN UKMET/GEM/ECMWF...WITH AN OVERALL SLOWING TREND
WITH THIS TROUGH. THE SLOWER TREND CONTINUES WED/WED NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO MN/WI WITH A BIT BETTER CONSENSUS AT 12Z THU THAN
12Z WED. THE SLOWER TREND HOLDS MORE TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THRU
THU NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWER TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SIMILAR AMONG
THE MODELS. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL REASONABLE
WITH THE LOW AND WARM FRONTAL POSITION. GFS REMAINED TOO HIGH WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WAS MUCH TOO
WET/WIDESPREAD WITH 00-06Z CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI. PER WV
IMAGERY ALL MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. NO FAVORED MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING...
OTHER THAN LEANING AWAY FROM THE OVERLY WET GFS. HOWEVER AFTER THIS
MORNING...GFS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS AT LEAST WITH PRECIP
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORED A MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR TODAY THRU THU NIGHT...WITH SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...DISTANCE SPEED TOOL...CORFIDI VECTORS AND
PRESENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS MN SHOWS IT WILL SKIRT THE NORTH
END OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG/NORTH OF A LAKE CITY MN
AND HWY 10 ACROSS CENTRAL WI LINE. WARM FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY BACK
NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO EASTERN SD. THIS SENDS
THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/CONVERGENCE/LIFT
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA RATHER QUICKLY. WILL LIMITS MOST OF SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA TODAY TO THE 12-15Z
TIME-FRAME. WARM 850-700MB TEMPS WILL BUILD NORTH AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-
100 RANGE UNDER THE CAPPING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA FOR
BRISK SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25MPH AND GUSTY IN PLACES. WINDS SHOULD
HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE HEAT AND WILL AGAIN HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT
ADVISORY FOR NOW.
THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS MN TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT TO NEAR A KDLH-KFSD LINE BY 12Z WED. MODELS DO DIFFER ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT BY 12Z WED...BUT CONSENSUS IS SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM
ADVECTION THETA-E CONVERGENCE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS UNDER COOLING 700-50MB TEMPS AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. CAP ERODES FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED...WITH
AREA UNDER FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+KT 300MB JET
MAX...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THIS ALONG WITH MDT/STRONG SHOT OF SFC-
700MB FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES...ML CAPES OF 1K-2K J/KG AND INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR. SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED EVENING AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SEE SWODY2 AND
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING AND
IMPROVING MODEL CONSISTENCY RAISED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 70-80 PERCENT
OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA WED AND SOUTHEAST 1/3 WED
EVENING. ADDED MORE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO RAIN CHANCES ON WED.
LINGERED MORE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WED NIGHT.
WEATHER TURNS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS DRIER/COOLER
HIGHS PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 50S WITH HIGHS THU IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY ON THU.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTH
WINDS FOR MIXING...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY.
AFTER THAT...TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI-MON WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRI THEN RIDGING ALOFT TRYING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT-MON. SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THRU AND
OVER THE MODEST RIDGING FRI/SAT KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
NORTHWEST AND CYCLONIC. GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS FOR ONE OF THESE WAVES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FRI/SAT. ACCOMPANYING ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
SFC-700MB LOW/TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE AREA CENTERED ON SAT.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE CENTERED ON SAT LOOK
WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH A RATHER STRONG CAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN/MON. MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR DRY WITH NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON DAYS 6/7 ALSO
LOOKS WELL TRENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ON THE NOSE OF STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
19.01Z HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN THRUST OF THIS TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z....BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH AT
BOTH SITES. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR INCLUSION OF TSRA
IF THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SOUTH. CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT KRST. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP ABOVE
12 KNOTS ALL TE WAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WED/WED EVENING
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE FIRST COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING MN...AND HAS A BEAD
FOR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT GOT THE
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING. AMPLE PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
GENERATE STORMS AS WE ARE SEEING...BUT THE POSITIVE IN THIS SO FAR
IS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS. FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY
TRANSLATING NORTHWARD...FURTHER SHIFTING THE THREAT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTH FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE KEY HERE
WILL BE HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TROUGH IS DEEPENING AND
SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED PER THE MODEL
FORECASTS...AND THIS MAY SLOW THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOMEWHAT. STORMS
WILL HAVE A GOOD NORTHEAST FORWARD MOTION...BUT MAY SEE SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH /ZUMBRO...BLACK...BUFFALO...
TREMPEALEAU...MISSISSIPPI/ SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLS FOR ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAT EACH ROUND MAY
HAVE.
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN ON TOWARD THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA STATE LINE. THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WAVE COMES THROUGH AND THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. A 700-800MB CAP HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH THE BEST
COMBINATION OF CAP-FREE ENVIRONMENT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND BECOMES STATIONARY TOWARD THE MN/IA STATE LINE
TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN
PUSH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN
AND EASTERN NE/SD WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND PULL THE WARM FRONT BACK UP TO THE NORTH. SO...AS
CONVECTION RE-IGNITES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 6-12Z TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE 12-18Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
SURGE OF MOISTURE NOSING UP CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN AND
IA...THINKING THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
IN THAT REGION. HOWEVER...IF IT CAN DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND RACE
EASTWARD ALONG THE LLJ NOSE THEN IT COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE WIND SHEAR IS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS
UNDER THE INVERSION BUT 0-3KM MUCAPE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT
1000-2000 J/KG. OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN AS
WELL GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE FORCING WILL HAVE TO COME FROM
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES WHICH APPEARS BETTER OFF
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
HOT...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT UP IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD A SECOND LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.ANY SEVERE
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WOULD BE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INSTABILITY BUILDING JUST AHEAD OF IT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN IOWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
ITS BEST CHANCES OF SEEING A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF UP TO AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP
INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM BOTH
THE 18.12Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING LIFTING
UP INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FRONT...IT MAY BE A GOOD SETUP FOR AN
MCS TO DEVELOP OFF TO THE WEST AND RUN EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
REGION BEYOND THIS WITH COOLER AIR DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ON THE NOSE OF STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
19.01Z HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN THRUST OF THIS TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z....BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH AT
BOTH SITES. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR INCLUSION OF TSRA
IF THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SOUTH. CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT KRST. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP ABOVE
12 KNOTS ALL TE WAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS
BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FOLLOWING TIME
PERIODS...THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND THEN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA THAT HAS
BEEN HIT THE HARDEST RECENTLY IS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH ANYWHERE
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES FALLING OVER THE PAST WEEK. AREA RIVERS WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE RISE DUE TO THESE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT WHETHER
ANY OF THEM GO INTO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT IS UNCERTAIN SINCE
MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY FAST MOVERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
316 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...RABERDING
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRINGING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, RETURNING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES AT MID MORNING ARE TO LOWER SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
RIDGES AS CLOUDS SEEN WELL BANKED EAST OF THE LAURELS. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE
RIDGES...STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH THE HRRR THE ONLY HIGH-RES MODEL TO
DEPICT THIS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE LATEST MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS SLIDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE AREA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN MCS
THAT DIED IN MICHIGAN IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASED
CLOUDINESS. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FOLLOWS THIS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND IS ADVECTING ACROSS MICHIGAN TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE 500MB ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS OHIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SCHC POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
19-20C TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOWLAND AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME HITTING THE
90S THIS MONTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TODAY, THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A MUGGY DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH IS 100-104F. WITH THE WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RIDGE IN PLACE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS AT 20-21C WILL YIELD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING
INTO THE MID 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY WARM CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THUS THERE IS A MENTION OF HEAT IN THE HWO.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE DAY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
MOSTLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT, DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. AT THIS
TIME...ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN A NW TRAJECTORY ALOFT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT YIELDS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS AT MID LEVEL SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PCPN WITH THIS FRONT
THAN ITS PREDECESSOR FRI. CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AS TIMING ISSUES AT DAY 6 CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
PROBABILITY.
H5 ANTICYCLONE CRANKS BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THUS
PERSISTING WITH NW WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE SIGNALS
OF AN TSTM COMPLEXES / MCS PARADE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER DURING THE WEEK.
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FROM MOSGUIDE WHERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HUMID SURFACE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL BRING PERIODS OF FOG AND HAZE
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE VFR ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED CUMULUS. SFC WND WL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 5 KTS,
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE VFR THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING HAZE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POSTFRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
740 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MID-WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
RETURNING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 730AM UPDATE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE RIDGES...STILL DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR...WITH THE HRRR THE ONLY HIGH-RES MODEL TO DEPICT THIS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE LATEST MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS SLIDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE AREA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN MCS
THAT DIED IN MICHIGAN IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASED
CLOUDINESS. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FOLLOWS THIS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND IS ADVECTING ACROSS MICHIGAN TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE 500MB ANTI-CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS OHIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SCHC POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO
19-20C TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOWLAND AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME HITTING THE
90S THIS MONTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TODAY, THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A MUGGY DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH IS 100-104F. WITH THE WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RIDGE IN PLACE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS AT 20-21C WILL YIELD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING
INTO THE MID 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY WARM CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THUS THERE IS A MENTION OF HEAT IN THE HWO.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE DAY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
MOSTLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT, DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED.
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. AT THIS
TIME...ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN A NW TRAJECTORY ALOFT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT YIELDS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS AT MID LEVEL SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PCPN WITH THIS FRONT
THAN ITS PREDECESSOR FRI. CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE...AS TIMING ISSUES AT DAY 6 CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
PROBABILITY.
H5 ANTICYCLONE CRANKS BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THUS
PERSISTING WITH NW WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE SIGNALS
OF AN TSTM COMPLEXES / MCS PARADE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER DURING THE WEEK.
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FROM MOSGUIDE WHERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HUMID SURFACE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL BRING PERIODS OF FOG AND HAZE
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE VFR ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED CUMULUS. SFC WND WL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 5 KTS,
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE VFR THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING HAZE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POSTFRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THEN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONIN SHOULD JUST MISS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
NOON SO I PUT AN 18 PCT POP THERE FOR 3 HOURS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THERE IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WILL
BE THE HEAT THROUGH WED...AND THEN CONVECTION CHANCES AND SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL FOR WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS THAT LAID OUT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LAST EVENING IS
NOW DIMINISHING AS THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE TROUGH COMING OUT FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO CAP ANY THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THIS CAPPING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WE WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPS UP THROUGH 15K FEET PER FCST SOUNDINGS. H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 21C WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID 90S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. WE SHOULD END
UP A LITTLE SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH TODAY AND WED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN CHCS MOVE IN NOW UNTIL WED EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST PER THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW IN PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE JET
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH DURING THE TIME OF THE MIN DIURNAL INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED AND ELEVATED LI/S WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. WE EXPECT THAT SOME CONVECTION FROM WED AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA THU
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE
ANY GOOD INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED. THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE SE OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER THAT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THANKS TO A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.
THIS IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SOME TIME NOW. A
BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS SOUTHERN GREENLAND BY THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT FORCES THE UPPER LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER JAMES BAY TO STALL THERE BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS THE BLOCKING HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH STALLED UPPER LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY THAT WILL BRING THE PERSISTENT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRI THROUGH MONDAY (AND BEYOND).
A DIGGING JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM COMES IN PHASE
WITH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO FORCE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM
PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE COUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
300 MB JET SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE NEARLY SOLID SO I DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A THREAT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RULES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ON MONDAY SO
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
ASIDE FROM IT BEING A TOUCH ON THE BREEZE SIDE TODAY... NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. I STILL BELIVE THE
CONVECTION TODAY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON AT 7 AM.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS
HAVE RELAXED SOME OVERNIGHT WITH A LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
WATERS. WE EXPECT THAT SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN...AND
WE WILL SEE CONDITIONS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN. STRONG S/SW FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS WITH HIGH WAVES...LONGSHORE
CURRENTS...AND STRUCTURAL CURRENTS ONCE AGAIN. WE COULD SEE WINDS
REMAIN UP ALONG THE SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO PERIODS OF RAINFALL TODAY RANGED FROM
NOTHING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA...TO LOCALLY AROUND TWO
INCHES UP NORTH. OTHER THAN STANDING WATER AT THE TIME OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...THIS RAIN WAS WELCOME TO THE AREA WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UP NORTH...BUT THE GROUND
WILL LIKELY ABSORB MOST OF IT.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE A NARROW
RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS UP TO TWO INCHES. THE NARROW APPEARANCE OF THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT INDICATES
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LOW WED NIGHT/THU.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
918 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 14 UTC. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE. NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS OF 14 UTC...POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION FROM
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. WE STILL
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE INITIATION BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. CURRENT RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING CAPES IN THE 500-800J RANGE AND WIND
FIELDS REMAIN WEAK. HENCE...THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES WILL BE SEEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH WEAK SLY TO SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WE HAVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS
WILL APPROACH 90 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 80S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR GROUND LEVEL OZONE OVER THE CLT AREA WHICH IS IN AFFECT
TODAY FROM 6AM TO 9PM LOCAL TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WED...WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E.
THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN S-SE LOW LVL FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AFTN-EVE CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...WITH JUST A LITTLE INSTABLITY OVER THE MTNS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVG. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU...PUSHING THE SFC RIDGE
FARTHER S AS WELL. WITH LGT SW LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEG
OR TWO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY THAN WED BUT IT STILL APPEARS
WARM MID LEVELS WILL CAP THE ATMOS...ESP OUTSIDE THE MTNS. WITH THIS
IN MIND KEPT POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHC...MAINLY MTNS THU AFTN-EARLY
EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES W AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK FROM CENTRL CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING A
TROF OVER THE E US THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT BRINGING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NW
FRI-SAT...BUT WITHOUT MUCH THICKNESS OR AIRMASS CHANGE...WILL KEEP
LOW TO SLIGHT CHC DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE
PERIOD WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT S TO
SWLY WINDS PERSISTING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF CALM TO LIGHT
VRB WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. EXPECT FEW TO
SCT HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CU DEVELOPING MOSTLY
OVER THE NC MTS DURING THE DAY. SOME SCT CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NC MTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST. I DONT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
THRU THU...WITH ISO TO SCT AFTN TSTMS OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
847 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Minor update to increase pops to accomodate a very
thin line of almost stationary showers from Coulee Dam to
Fruitland to just north of Deer Park. Otherwise remainder of
forecast is unchanged and calls for convection this afternoon
which includes some thunderstorms. 12Z KOTX sounding shows the
cool pool and low tropopause which is to be expected as the
forecast area remains on the north side of the jet stream and the
sounding is giving us a picture of the cool conditionally unstable
airmass that is typically found on the north side. Upper level
winds from the sounding arent useful to come up with a storm
motion for the afternoon convection and instead will use what the
latest HRRR hints at which is showers and thunderstorms forming
then taking a trajectory from north to south at about 15
mph...which is quite close to the latest GFS average 0-6KmAgl wind
progged for 00z Wednesday. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist low levels and low level upslope flow will result in
areas of MVFR stratus over Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle through 17z. This has already moved into KCOE as of 11z
and may also impact KGEG and KSFF. The atmosphere will again
destabilize after 18z today with scattered showers developing over
the mountains surrounding the Columbia Basin. There will also be a
slight chance of thunderstorms. This activity will rapidly wind
down after 03z this evening as the lower atmosphere stabilizes. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
440 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Water vapor satellite imagery as of 2 am
indicated a long wave trough over the area with the jet diving
south of the area into Oregon. This will place Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho on the cold and unstable side of the
jet today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms once
again developing in the late morning and afternoon mainly over the
mountains. A couple vort maxes noted on water vapor this morning
that will be monitored today. One is off Vancouver Island and will
miss our area to the west and south. Second one over southern
British Columbia will drop south over the North Washington
Cascades this morning. With the atmosphere more stable during the
morning models including the HRRR are not very excited about
anything more than isolated showers this morning over the
Cascades. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable after 18z
convection will begin firing over the mountains. The best
instability will lie over the Northern Washington mountains and
North Idaho Panhandle with models indicating uncapped CAPES of
200-500 J/KG. This activity will decrease early this evening and
then likely end after sunset. Abundant boundary layer moisture
will lead to patchy fog in the northern valleys early this morning
and again late tonight. JW
Wednesday through Monday: The big pattern change to drier and
warmer conditions will begin Wednesday as rapid 500mb ht rises of
as much as 90 meters by Thursday morning within the amplifying
mid- level ridge axis across the Pacific Nw produces a more stable
air- mass. This warming should last into at least Thursday as the
low- level thermal ridge strengthens partly in response to the
offshore cyclone digging very slowly down the Sw BC and Pacific Nw
coasts. We should see 850mb temps of 15c to 20c in this warm
southerly surge by Thurs (usually associated with high temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s for Ern Wa), then potentially shifting
east into Id and Wrn Montana by Fri. We continue to see decent
consistency in model guidance confirming that Thursday will be one
of, if not the warmest day of the week. That said, we warmed fcst
high temps Thurs by 3-5F. This eastward shift of the thermal ridge
will be in response to the impending cold front fcst by guidance
to move across the Cascades beginning Friday. Though the GFS and
ECMWF are surprisingly good agreement with their latest runs three
to four days out, there are still significant challenges mainly
due to how quickly a series of speed maxes eject from the offshore
trough and drives the cold front east through the region. Even
more complicated will be deciding on the nocturnal thunder threat, as
a clear signal in the form of an elevated plume of moist
convective instability above 700mb develops Thurs Nt through
Friday Nt. We delayed the onset of the first pcpn threat until
Thursday night...which will be the precursor to the cold front and
more widespread pcpn late Friday. For Saturday...a significant
post cold front short-wave lifts NE into the Cascades on both the
GFS and ECMWF, providing a second round of showers and thunder.
Following a possible short break in pcpn Sunday, it looks as if
the entire offshore trough finally ejects NE across the Cascades
and advances quickly trough Id and into BC and Alberta. When this
ejection takes place, it will essentially be the main event and
provide the best chance of widespread strong thunder. Again...
this is six days out, so we`ll watch it closely for timing
changes. bz
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist low levels and low level upslope flow will result in
areas of MVFR stratus over Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle through 17z. This has already moved into KCOE as of 11z
and may also impact KGEG and KSFF. The atmosphere will again
destabilize after 18z today with scattered showers developing over
the mountains surrounding the Columbia Basin. There will also be a
slight chance of thunderstorms. This activity will rapidly wind
down after 03z this evening as the lower atmosphere stabilizes. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
637 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WEAK IMPULSE SHEARS APART AS IT RIDES THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE. NEAR TERM MODELS (HRRR/RUC) INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE TO ISOLATED POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND STRATUS.
ATTM, NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED W/THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SB CAPES OF 700+ JOULES
W/MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MBS ACROSS THE FAR W AND N BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND EVENING APCHS, THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO
850MBS AND BELOW AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE LLVLS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO 6.0 C/KM AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL FORCING INITIALLY BUT THAT IS GONE
BY 06Z AS THE FRONT APCHS. ATTM, DECIDED ON ISOLD TSTMS AND KEPT
POPS NO MORE THAN 40% ACROSS THE FAR N AND W FOR SHOWERS.
SKY COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS S FLOW INITIALLY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE MLT AND HUL REGIONS. FURTHER N AND W, WIND
VEERING MORE SW OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS.
FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AND DECIDED
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THERE FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND
W, KEPT FOG OUT DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP FOR ONE AND DIRECTION
MORE WSW BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SMALL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE DIVIDING WARM
AIR TO THE NORTH FROM HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME MOISTURE WILL CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST AREAS JUST ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE DURING THE MIDDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL LOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST. A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING
TROF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY. THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM GOING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHC FOR IFR WILL BE FROM HUL ON
SOUTH TO BGR AND BHB. CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY
W/BGR AND BHB TAKING A WHILE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IN COASTAL FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY LINGER FOR
A WHILE EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: KEPT THE MENTION OF THE SWELL IN THE FCST TONIGHT AS A
8-9 SECOND PERIOD IS OCCURRING ATTM. THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SWAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEAS REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT
W/THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. DECISION WAS TO BRING SEAS UP A FOOT W/A
RANGE OF 3-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATER
WEDNESDAY AS REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS GO OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM A SMALL SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN SEAS NEAR 5 FT EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOSTER/HEWITT
MARINE...FOSTER/HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND STRATUS.
ATTM, NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED W/THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SB CAPES OF 700+ JOULES
W/MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MBS ACROSS THE FAR W AND N BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND EVENING APCHS, THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO
850MBS AND BELOW AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE LLVLS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO 6.0 C/KM AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL FORCING INITIALLY BUT THAT IS GONE
BY 06Z AS THE FRONT APCHS. ATTM, DECIDED ON ISOLD TSTMS AND KEPT
POPS NO MORE THAN 40% ACROSS THE FAR N AND W FOR SHOWERS.
SKY COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS S FLOW INITIALLY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE MLT AND HUL REGIONS. FURTHER N AND W, WIND
VEERING MORE SW OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS.
FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AND DECIDED
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THERE FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND
W, KEPT FOG OUT DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP FOR ONE AND DIRECTION
MORE WSW BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SMALL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE DIVIDING WARM
AIR TO THE NORTH FROM HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME MOISTURE WILL CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST AREAS JUST ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE DURING THE MIDDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL LOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST. A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING
TROF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY. THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM GOING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHC FOR IFR WILL BE FROM HUL ON
SOUTH TO BGR AND BHB. CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY
W/BGR AND BHB TAKING A WHILE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IN COASTAL FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY LINGER FOR
A WHILE EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: KEPT THE MENTION OF THE SWELL IN THE FCST TONIGHT AS A
8-9 SECOND PERIOD IS OCCURRING ATTM. THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SWAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEAS REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT
W/THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. DECISION WAS TO BRING SEAS UP A FOOT W/A
RANGE OF 3-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATER
WEDNESDAY AS REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS GO OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM A SMALL SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN SEAS NEAR 5 FT EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THEN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD JUST MISS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
NOON SO I PUT AN 18 PCT POP THERE FOR 3 HOURS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THERE IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WILL
BE THE HEAT THROUGH WED...AND THEN CONVECTION CHANCES AND SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL FOR WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS THAT LAID OUT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LAST EVENING IS
NOW DIMINISHING AS THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE TROUGH COMING OUT FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO CAP ANY THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THIS CAPPING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WE WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPS UP THROUGH 15K FEET PER FCST SOUNDINGS. H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 21C WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID 90S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. WE SHOULD END
UP A LITTLE SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH TODAY AND WED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN CHCS MOVE IN NOW UNTIL WED EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST PER THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW IN PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE JET
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH DURING THE TIME OF THE MIN DIURNAL INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED AND ELEVATED LI/S WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. WE EXPECT THAT SOME CONVECTION FROM WED AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA THU
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE
ANY GOOD INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED. THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE SE OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER THAT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THANKS TO A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.
THIS IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SOME TIME NOW. A
BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS SOUTHERN GREENLAND BY THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT FORCES THE UPPER LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER JAMES BAY TO STALL THERE BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS THE BLOCKING HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH STALLED UPPER LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY THAT WILL BRING THE PERSISTENT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRI THROUGH MONDAY (AND BEYOND).
A DIGGING JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM COMES IN PHASE
WITH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO FORCE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM
PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE COUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
300 MB JET SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE NEARLY SOLID SO I DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A THREAT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RULES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ON MONDAY SO
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SSW
WINDS OF 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THEN PICK UP AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE WED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 KNOT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THUS HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUT ON THE LAKE. SOME QUESTION EXISTS
AS TO HOW LONG THE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE DATA THIS AFTERNOON...MAY NEED TO FEATURE A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO PERIODS OF RAINFALL TODAY RANGED FROM
NOTHING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA...TO LOCALLY AROUND TWO
INCHES UP NORTH. OTHER THAN STANDING WATER AT THE TIME OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...THIS RAIN WAS WELCOME TO THE AREA WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UP NORTH...BUT THE GROUND
WILL LIKELY ABSORB MOST OF IT.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE A NARROW
RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS UP TO TWO INCHES. THE NARROW APPEARANCE OF THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT INDICATES
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LOW WED NIGHT/THU.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-
043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
116 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL MS VALLEY RESULTING IN WSW
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE
PATTERN TO AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW DIGS TO THE
SE AND A SHRTWV OVER MT LIFTS INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER N CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN MN. AN
MCS FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MN AND FAR WRN WI WAS FUELED BY A
40-50 KT LLJ PROVIDING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE 850 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
DRYING MID LEVELS...AREA OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT WHERE MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TODAY...THE FOG WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE MAINLY TO THE EAST INTO CNTRL AND NRN WI.
HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH...SOME SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO W AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BY
LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TSRA WITH SMALL HAIL IF THE CONVECTION AS THE
CONVECTION OVER WI WEAKENS AND GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS
INTO UPPER MI. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING AS
FAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THINNING CLOUDS FROM S TO N BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
INLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MN OR NRN WI DURING
PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO THE AREA. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...CAPPING WILL LIMIT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE 850 MB FRONT AND FORCING FROM ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE
FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB LOW NEARS FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER MN/S ONTARIO/W LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF HOLDING ONTO A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOVERING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 06Z NAM NOW BEING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
/ECMWF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY SLIDING INTO CANADA/...TO A HALF IN
INCH TO AROUND AN INCH /GFS WITH A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH/. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY GREAT ASSUMPTIONS YET...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIALLY
ABOUT 3HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO SPEED UP OFF THE
ECMWF...SO THAT THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE BEING E OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1K
J/KG...MLLAPSE RATES 6-8C/CM /HIGHEST SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON/.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE 500MB LOW WILL EJECT NE AND RESIDE OVER N ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ROTATING LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY. MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY UP TO
800MB/ COULD SPELL RH VALUES NEAR 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS OR GREATER OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. THE COOLEST AIR AT 850MB WILL BE FROM 00-18Z
FRIDAY...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SLIDE IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRIEFLY PUSH A RIDGE
THROUGH UPPER MI THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES IN
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN AT 500MB THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE BE THE RULE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER N/C WI...WILL BE
SATURDAY...ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LVL WAVE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER SD/NE AND ANOTHER OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END. DRY WX/VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LLWS UNDER
STRENGTHENING SW LLJ AT CMX OVERNIGHT. NEXT WAVE COMES IN FOR WED
MORNING AND PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP INTO IWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PCPN
BREAKING OUT WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL QUEBEC...THROUGH
LS...TO SD WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. THE SD LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS W LS AND
MN THIS EVENING...BEFORE MAKING IT TO N CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS E LS. EXPECT THE
HIGH TO SLIDE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1232 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THEN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONIN SHOULD JUST MISS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
NOON SO I PUT AN 18 PCT POP THERE FOR 3 HOURS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THERE IN THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WILL
BE THE HEAT THROUGH WED...AND THEN CONVECTION CHANCES AND SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL FOR WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS THAT LAID OUT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LAST EVENING IS
NOW DIMINISHING AS THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE TROUGH COMING OUT FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO CAP ANY THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THIS CAPPING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WE WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPS UP THROUGH 15K FEET PER FCST SOUNDINGS. H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 21C WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID 90S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. WE SHOULD END
UP A LITTLE SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH TODAY AND WED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PCPN CHCS MOVE IN NOW UNTIL WED EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST PER THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW IN PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AREA UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE JET
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH DURING THE TIME OF THE MIN DIURNAL INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SFC BASED AND ELEVATED LI/S WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. WE EXPECT THAT SOME CONVECTION FROM WED AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA THU
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE
ANY GOOD INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED. THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE SE OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER THAT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THANKS TO A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.
THIS IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SOME TIME NOW. A
BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS SOUTHERN GREENLAND BY THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT FORCES THE UPPER LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER JAMES BAY TO STALL THERE BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS THE BLOCKING HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH STALLED UPPER LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY THAT WILL BRING THE PERSISTENT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
AREA FRI THROUGH MONDAY (AND BEYOND).
A DIGGING JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM COMES IN PHASE
WITH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO FORCE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM
PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE DUE TO WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE COUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
300 MB JET SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE NEARLY SOLID SO I DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A THREAT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RULES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ON MONDAY SO
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
ASIDE FROM IT BEING A TOUCH ON THE BREEZE SIDE TODAY... NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. I STILL BELIVE THE
CONVECTION TODAY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON AT 7 AM.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 KNOT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THUS HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUT ON THE LAKE. SOME QUESTION EXISTS
AS TO HOW LONG THE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE DATA THIS AFTERNOON...MAY NEED TO FEATURE A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO PERIODS OF RAINFALL TODAY RANGED FROM
NOTHING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA...TO LOCALLY AROUND TWO
INCHES UP NORTH. OTHER THAN STANDING WATER AT THE TIME OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...THIS RAIN WAS WELCOME TO THE AREA WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SOME UP NORTH...BUT THE GROUND
WILL LIKELY ABSORB MOST OF IT.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE A NARROW
RIBBON OF HIGH PWATS UP TO TWO INCHES. THE NARROW APPEARANCE OF THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT INDICATES
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LOW WED NIGHT/THU.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-
043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT NOT HARD TO FIND AT 11 AM EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW SOUTH OF CHAMBERLAIN...SD EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE FRONT COMES INTO THE STATE JUST NORTH OF PIPESTONE
AND EXTENDS EAST THROUGH MANKATO AND OVER INTO THE LA CROSSE AREA.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS
SE NODAK INTO NORTHERN MN AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES UP INTO THE
STATE. AT H7...THE +12C ISOTHERM AND ASSOCIATED CAP IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO I-94 AND IS ON ITS WAY NORTH. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON THE RAP...HRRR...AND 12Z GEM IS
THAT BY 21Z...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A GRANITE FALLS...TO ST.
CLOUD...TO MORA LINE. GIVEN CONVECTION OVER NRN MN...FEEL 12Z
GFS/NAM PUSH THE FRONT TOO FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR SEVERE THREAT...VERY WARM EML WILL KEEP A LID ON THINGS
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z OVER THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEGINNING TO COOL BY 00Z AND EXPECT THE CAP TO BE
ERODED ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH INITIATION LIKELY IN THE 22Z TO 00Z WINDOW. BY
THEN...MLCAPE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
J/KG...AND STRONGLY BACKED WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR 21Z AND
00Z ON THE RAP EXCEED 90 PERCENT. IF REALITY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES END UP ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT THE RAP HAS...WOULD EXPECT SOME
TORNADIC ACTIVITY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS
SHOULD GROW UP-SCALE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO A LINE...WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD THING TO HAVE...AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL REALLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
FULLY EXPECTED TRAINING OF CELLS TONIGHT. IN FACT...CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM/GEM/SREF IS THAT ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST OF A FAIRMONT/TWIN CITIES/SIREN...WI
LINE...OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST MN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL PARAMETERS IN PLACE LATER TODAY THAT
SUPPORT ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DECIDED TO FOCUS MORE
ON LATER TODAY THAN THE PRESENT WEATHER. THE CONDITIONAL THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP CAN
HOLD...AND HOW MUCH DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY OVERLAID
WITH RAP40 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED THE UPCOMING WEATHER
MAKER IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED E/W ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS THE METRO AND NEW RICHMOND WI...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70 WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE CAPE GRADIENT WAS RIGHT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT. AN MCS WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHOSE OUTFLOW
WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO WISCONSIN WHILE BEING FUELED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE
REGION...CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 3000J/KG OF SBCAPE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THESE LARGE CAPE VALUES DON/T COME WITHOUT A CATCH. THE
CATCH IS THAT 700MB TEMPS +10 TO +12C BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS IT DOES SO...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25G35KTS.
FORECAST SOUNDING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT SHOW BOTH INCREDIBLE SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE FRONT AND NOT REALIZE THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...BUT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH
MID LEVEL COOLING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION. STORMS WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS DISCRETE CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX
AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND/HAIL THREAT. STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME ELEVATED AT THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT COULD STILL POSE A HAIL/WIND THREAT.
FINALLY...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...NOT TO
MENTION THE ONGOING MCS...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY HEAVY RAIN
WILL POSE A FLOOD THREAT. ESPECIALLY IN THE SENSITIVE CANNON RIVER
BASIN. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CDFNT BETWEEN SFC LOWS
CENTERED OVER SE MANITOBA AND WRN KANSAS WILL GAIN IMPETUS TO PUSH
E AS A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS
BY LATE MRNG WED. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HIGHLY
CONCENTRATED LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF RAINFALL ACRS MUCH
OF THE MPX CWFA. MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE
RAINFALL FCST FOR WED BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY EASILY
PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
SEVERE WX PROSPECTS ARE QUITE LOW SINCE THE BULK OF THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FRONT...WORKING WITH LITTLE
INSOLATION BEFORE THE FROPA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH GREATLY WED
NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE W...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRIER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES EXPANDING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH THE COLD FROPA...WITH HIGHS BUMPED BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S AND
LOWS INTO THE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG RAIN-MAKER FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MEANDERING OVER THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST THU WILL BE NUDGED OVER THE ROCKIES THU INTO FRI
AS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THIS SFC LOW
WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FRI AND SHIFT
E INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUN MRNG. NOT A HUGE PUNCH OF
WARMER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR SUPPRESSED TO THE S...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL BE NUDGED INTO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-60S. THE BEST CHCS FOR
PRECIP COMES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN DRIER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL WARM
BUBBLE LIFTS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN MN. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 500 PM AND 700 PM OVER
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SKIES
HAD CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR...WITH LVFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSENING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRACUMULUS CLOUDS(1500-2500
FEET AGL) DEVELOPING OVER THE ALL OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 700 PM THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF KMSP THIS
EVENING...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET AGL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH 15-20 KNOTS WITH OCNL HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 MPH LATER TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK/
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR...WINDS NW AT 10KT
FRIDAY...VFR...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RENVILLE-
STEARNS-SWIFT-TODD.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PIERCE-POLK-
ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
MPG/JPC/JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.UPDATED WITH MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT NOT HARD TO FIND AT 11 AM EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW SOUTH OF CHAMBERLAIN...SD EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE FRONT COMES INTO THE STATE JUST NORTH OF PIPESTONE
AND EXTENDS EAST THROUGH MANKATO AND OVER INTO THE LA CROSSE AREA.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS
SE NODAK INTO NORTHERN MN AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES UP INTO THE
STATE. AT H7...THE +12C ISOTHERM AND ASSOCIATED CAP IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO I-94 AND IS ON ITS WAY NORTH. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON THE RAP...HRRR...AND 12Z GEM IS
THAT BY 21Z...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A GRANITE FALLS...TO ST.
CLOUD...TO MORA LINE. GIVEN CONVECTION OVER NRN MN...FEEL 12Z
GFS/NAM PUSH THE FRONT TOO FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR SEVERE THREAT...VERY WARM EML WILL KEEP A LID ON THINGS
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z OVER THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEGINNING TO COOL BY 00Z AND EXPECT THE CAP TO BE
ERODED ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH INITIATION LIKELY IN THE 22Z TO 00Z WINDOW. BY
THEN...MLCAPE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
J/KG...AND STRONGLY BACKED WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR 21Z AND
00Z ON THE RAP EXCEED 90 PERCENT. IF REALITY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES END UP ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT THE RAP HAS...WOULD EXPECT SOME
TORNADIC ACTIVITY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS
SHOULD GROW UP-SCALE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO A LINE...WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD THING TO HAVE...AS STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL REALLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
FULLY EXPECTED TRAINING OF CELLS TONIGHT. IN FACT...CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM/GEM/SREF IS THAT ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST OF A FAIRMONT/TWIN CITIES/SIREN...WI
LINE...OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST MN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL PARAMETERS IN PLACE LATER TODAY THAT
SUPPORT ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DECIDED TO FOCUS MORE
ON LATER TODAY THAN THE PRESENT WEATHER. THE CONDITIONAL THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP CAN
HOLD...AND HOW MUCH DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY OVERLAID
WITH RAP40 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED THE UPCOMING WEATHER
MAKER IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED E/W ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS THE METRO AND NEW RICHMOND WI...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70 WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE CAPE GRADIENT WAS RIGHT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT. AN MCS WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHOSE OUTFLOW
WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO WISCONSIN WHILE BEING FUELED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE
REGION...CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 3000J/KG OF SBCAPE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THESE LARGE CAPE VALUES DON/T COME WITHOUT A CATCH. THE
CATCH IS THAT 700MB TEMPS +10 TO +12C BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS IT DOES SO...THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25G35KTS.
FORECAST SOUNDING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT SHOW BOTH INCREDIBLE SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE FRONT AND NOT REALIZE THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...BUT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH
MID LEVEL COOLING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION. STORMS WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS DISCRETE CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX
AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND/HAIL THREAT. STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME ELEVATED AT THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT COULD STILL POSE A HAIL/WIND THREAT.
FINALLY...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...NOT TO
MENTION THE ONGOING MCS...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY HEAVY RAIN
WILL POSE A FLOOD THREAT. ESPECIALLY IN THE SENSITIVE CANNON RIVER
BASIN. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELONGATED CDFNT BETWEEN SFC LOWS
CENTERED OVER SE MANITOBA AND WRN KANSAS WILL GAIN IMPETUS TO PUSH
E AS A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS
BY LATE MRNG WED. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HIGHLY
CONCENTRATED LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF RAINFALL ACRS MUCH
OF THE MPX CWFA. MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE
RAINFALL FCST FOR WED BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY EASILY
PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
SEVERE WX PROSPECTS ARE QUITE LOW SINCE THE BULK OF THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FRONT...WORKING WITH LITTLE
INSOLATION BEFORE THE FROPA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH GREATLY WED
NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE W...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRIER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES EXPANDING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH THE COLD FROPA...WITH HIGHS BUMPED BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S AND
LOWS INTO THE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG RAIN-MAKER FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MEANDERING OVER THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST THU WILL BE NUDGED OVER THE ROCKIES THU INTO FRI
AS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. THIS SFC LOW
WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FRI AND SHIFT
E INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUN MRNG. NOT A HUGE PUNCH OF
WARMER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR SUPPRESSED TO THE S...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL BE NUDGED INTO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-60S. THE BEST CHCS FOR
PRECIP COMES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN DRIER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE STATE...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20G30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT WEST AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
KMSP...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING THE STORMS SHOULD
BE DONE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AT TIMES.
FINALLY...STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...SO
TRIED TO TIME IT FROM 03-06Z.
/OUTLOOK/
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE...WINDS BECOMING NW.
THURSDAY...VFR...WINDS NW AT 10KT
FRIDAY...VFR...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RENVILLE-
STEARNS-SWIFT-TODD.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PIERCE-POLK-
ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
MPG/JPC/JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. MODELS DO BRING
SOME QG-FORCING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR INDICATING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK LIFT ALOFT. THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINS TO DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WILL
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER 80S
EXPECTED. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED IN REGARDS TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...FINER
SCALE DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WHILE A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
IN ADDITION...A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL GET EJECTED OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN...TIMING EACH
DISTURBANCE IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASE ACROSS
CUSTER...FALLON...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH ADEQUATE
SPEED SHEAR. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPPING DURING THIS
TIME AND ITS JUST A MATTER OF IF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY THERE
AS CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2700 J/KG.
FOR SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...SAME PATTERN HOLDS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE RIDGE GETTING SHIFTED EAST BY TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER 06Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/074 048/081 056/087 059/091 062/093 063/094 065/085
23/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 040/071 040/079 047/085 052/087 053/090 054/086 056/078
33/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 050/075 045/082 054/091 060/094 065/096 063/096 064/085
23/T 10/U 01/U 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 050/076 049/082 056/087 063/090 064/095 065/095 068/086
24/T 10/U 02/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 049/074 047/081 057/093 060/090 065/097 066/100 068/090
23/T 10/U 02/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 048/070 047/078 057/085 061/086 061/088 064/091 068/086
24/T 10/U 02/T 31/B 11/N 22/T 22/T
SHR 045/069 045/079 052/089 061/092 063/094 063/093 062/087
23/W 10/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
CONVECTION THROUGH THE BISMARCK-MANDAN AREA AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...INCLUDING AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WOULD BE FAVORED FOR
STRONGER STORMS...ALSO IN PART DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY
ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A RETURN TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A QUICKLY PROPAGATING
SHORTWAVE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY SHOULD
BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
THEREAFTER....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS AND AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...FAVORING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MVFR WILL BE THE MOST COMMON FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 00-03
UTC FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE A THREAT AT
KISN...KMOT...KJMS AND KBIS AFTER 05 UTC TONIGHT GIVEN PRECIPITATION
FROM TODAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES
REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS
CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS YIELDING HIGHS POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MVFR WILL BE THE MOST COMMON FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BY 00-03 UTC FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE A THREAT AT
KISN...KMOT...KJMS AND KBIS AFTER 05 UTC TONIGHT GIVEN
PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FOR EAST INTO EARLY EVENING.
ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS. HRRR AND RUC HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EAST ALL AFTERNOON SO EVENTUALLY IT MIGHT HAPPEN.
A WARM AND DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA PROVIDING SOUTH TO SW
WINDS. SOME DISSIPATING CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR NE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD TOP OUT
NEAR BUT JUST UNDER THE 100 DEGREE CRITERIA WED AFTERNOON SO WILL
NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL AFFECTING THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
ON WED.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON THU AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION DEVELOPS THUS DETERMINING POPS AND QPF. WILL KEEP POPS
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH POP TOPPING OUT ABOUT 50 TO 55% WITH
THE FRONT ON THU. IF THE FRONT IS FASTER THEN MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SE PART OF THE CWA. EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES INDICATE SOME STRONG STORMS PROBABLY
WILL OCCUR BUT NOT LOOKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK.
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SE HALF LATER THU NIGHT THEN DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA
ON FRI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT JUST NOT SOLD ON MUCH OF THIS GIVEN
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING IN ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR. BASED ON
COLLABORATION AND CONTINUITY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER ON FRI AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR EAST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND +10 TO +12C. MAIN FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR
SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM EASTERN CANADA...SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
POSITION WITH THE GFS LOW FURTHER EAST WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO/NWRN PA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE EXTREME CHANGE IN PATTERN BUT WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +4 TO +6 AS IS SHOWN ON THE ECMWF...TUESDAY
HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID 60S AND WE COULD SEE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN LAKE TEMPS 16 TO 20C. WILL TAKE A MODERATE
APPROACH WITH HIGHS DROPPING THROUGH THE 70S DURING THE PERIOD WITH
CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY...OWING TO THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OHIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COULD SEE A COULD HOURS OF PATCHY MVFR MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY QUIET AS FAR AS WINDS AND WAVES GO UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 425 PM...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AREA. THIS IS GENERALLY
ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF THE TENN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AREA. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND FHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT EAST OF
THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENHANCED CU
FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL NC MTNS. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS
CAPE VALUES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED...SO THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. WILL GENERALLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MTN VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS. A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE TRIAD
REGION.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE SE STATES. THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONALLY WARM. THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUE AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDWEST STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LOOK TO MIX OUT EVEN MORE THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...AND THERE
WILL BE A GOOD MID-LEVEL CAP. AS A RESULT...NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF LATE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT EVEN THERE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND GENERALLY CONFINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER RIDGES.
IT WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE L-M90S
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 80S IN THE LARGER MTN
VALLEYS.
THE DEEPENING THROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL PUSH A FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
AND THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRIER
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND THE NON MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NE GA AND
THESE AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CONVECTION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. CONSIDERING HOW WEAK THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE...THE STORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AT LEAST OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH TROUGHS DEEPENING ALONG BOTH COASTS AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE ENERGY DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH IT STILL WANTS TO LIFT A SYSTEM
ACROSS FL AND OFF THE GA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE TROPICAL
FEATURE TO WEST...INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ACTUALLY...THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A SECOND TROPICAL LOOKING LOW WEST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK
TOO. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FA AS BOTH MODELS PUSH
A NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY STALL THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NVA ALOFT
DOESN/T LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE E COAST TROUGH...AND
CLIPS THE REGION WITH SOME QG FORCING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS NVA
ALOFT. NEITHER SOLUTION LOOKS VERY WET AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA REMAINING
LARGELY DRY. THE HPC MAX TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE WARM CONSIDERING THE
FALLING HEIGHTS...BUT I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THEM FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT...MAINLY SW WIND. SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT CU DISSIPATING BY
00Z. SCT MOUNTAIN -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTS A VCTS AT KAVL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
INTO FRI. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS OVER THE
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...JDL/LG
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 135 PM TUE...CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CURRENT GRIDS
REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE SE STATES. THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONALLY WARM. THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUE AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDWEST STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LOOK TO MIX OUT EVEN MORE THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...AND THERE
WILL BE A GOOD MID-LEVEL CAP. AS A RESULT...NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF LATE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT EVEN THERE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND GENERALLY CONFINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER RIDGES.
IT WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE L-M90S
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 80S IN THE LARGER MTN
VALLEYS.
THE DEEPENING THROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL PUSH A FAIRLY WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
AND THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRIER
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND THE NON MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NE GA AND
THESE AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CONVECTION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. CONSIDERING HOW WEAK THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE...THE STORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AT LEAST OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH TROUGHS DEEPENING ALONG BOTH COASTS AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE ENERGY DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH IT STILL WANTS TO LIFT A SYSTEM
ACROSS FL AND OFF THE GA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE TROPICAL
FEATURE TO WEST...INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ACTUALLY...THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A SECOND TROPICAL LOOKING LOW WEST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK
TOO. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FA AS BOTH MODELS PUSH
A NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY STALL THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NVA ALOFT
DOESN/T LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE E COAST TROUGH...AND
CLIPS THE REGION WITH SOME QG FORCING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS NVA
ALOFT. NIETHER SOLUTION LOOKS VERY WET AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA REMAINING
LARGELY DRY. THE HPC MAX TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE WARM CONSIDERING THE
FALLING HEIGHTS...BUT I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THEM FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT...MAINLY SW WIND. SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT CU DISSIPATING BY
00Z. SCT MOUNTAIN -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTS A VCTS AT KAVL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
INTO FRI. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS OVER THE
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 135 PM TUE...CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CURRENT GRIDS
REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE SE STATES. THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONALLY WARM. THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUE AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN WITH LOW TO MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WED...WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E.
THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN S-SE LOW LVL FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AFTN-EVE CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...WITH JUST A LITTLE INSTABLITY OVER THE MTNS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVG. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU...PUSHING THE SFC RIDGE
FARTHER S AS WELL. WITH LGT SW LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEG
OR TWO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY THAN WED BUT IT STILL APPEARS
WARM MID LEVELS WILL CAP THE ATMOS...ESP OUTSIDE THE MTNS. WITH THIS
IN MIND KEPT POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHC...MAINLY MTNS THU AFTN-EARLY
EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH TROUGHS DEEPENING ALONG BOTH COASTS AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE ENERGY DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH IT STILL WANTS TO LIFT A SYSTEM
ACROSS FL AND OFF THE GA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE TROPICAL
FEATURE TO WEST...INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ACTUALLY...THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A SECOND TROPICAL LOOKING LOW WEST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK
TOO. NEITHER SOLUTION HAS MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FA AS BOTH MODELS PUSH
A NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY STALL THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NVA ALOFT
DOESN/T LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE E COAST TROUGH...AND
CLIPS THE REGION WITH SOME QG FORCING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS NVA
ALOFT. NIETHER SOLUTION LOOKS VERY WET AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA REMAINING
LARGELY DRY. THE HPC MAX TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE WARM CONSIDERING THE
FALLING HEIGHTS...BUT I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THEM FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT...MAINLY SW WIND. SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT CU DISSIPATING BY
00Z. SCT MOUNTAIN -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTS A VCTS AT KAVL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF MTNS
INTO FRI. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS OVER THE
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1030 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A threat of showers will continue through today, giving way to drier
and much warmer weather Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
weather Thursday will slowly transition to a cooler and more
unsettled pattern in the form of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Minor update to increase pops to accomodate a very
thin line of almost stationary showers from Coulee Dam to
Fruitland to just north of Deer Park. Otherwise remainder of
forecast is unchanged and calls for convection this afternoon
which includes some thunderstorms. 12Z KOTX sounding shows the
cool pool and low tropopause which is to be expected as the
forecast area remains on the north side of the jet stream and the
sounding is giving us a picture of the cool conditionally unstable
airmass that is typically found on the north side. Upper level
winds from the sounding arent useful to come up with a storm
motion for the afternoon convection and instead will use what the
latest HRRR hints at which is showers and thunderstorms forming
then taking a trajectory from north to south at about 15
mph...which is quite close to the latest GFS average 0-6KmAgl wind
progged for 00z Wednesday. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Most low level MVFR stratus over Northeast Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle has dissipated...however some might remain to as
late as 21Z as some mid and higher level cloud cover inhibit its
erosion for a spell. Otherwise destabilization of atmosphere today
allows for with scattered showers developing over the mountains
surrounding the Columbia Basin and moving to the south at about 15
mph. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms. This
activity will rapidly wind down after 03z this evening as the lower
atmosphere stabilizes. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 47 74 51 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 46 72 47 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
Pullman 63 41 73 45 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 70 47 80 53 90 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 20
Colville 69 48 77 48 87 53 / 50 20 10 0 0 20
Sandpoint 61 43 72 43 81 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Kellogg 58 43 72 47 82 51 / 50 20 10 0 0 30
Moses Lake 73 46 80 52 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 73 52 79 55 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Omak 75 45 80 49 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$