Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/18/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
513 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FCST TO MENTION SMOKE IN THE FCST. MODELS SHOWS LOWER
LVL FLOW FROM THE WNW THE REST OF TODAY SHIFTING TO THE WEST
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY W-SW TOMORROW. SMOKE WILL SETTLE TONIGHT
ONCE THE INVERSION SETS IN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY.
WE CAN SMELL THE SMOKE HERE AT THE WX OFFICE WHICH IS LOCATED AT
THE PUEBLO AIRPORT. /HODANISH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY IS
WEST TO NW AND THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING WIND
GUSTS THAT ARE MEETING CRITERIA FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING...AS ARE
THE RH VALUES. ON MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AS AN UPR TROF MOVING INTO WRN MT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS
OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL AGAIN REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...AS WILL THE MIN RH VALUES. THUS WL UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NSSL 4KM WRF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE CONVECTION NR THE SRN BORDER THRU ABOUT 00Z. HAVE
SEE A FEW ECHOES IN THE OK PANHANDLE...BUT WL KEEP POPS LESS THAN 15
PERCENT ALONG THE SRN BORDER FOR THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. H7 TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 17C-21C. TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103...WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE MID AND UPR 80S. THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS MON IS 96...FOR
PUEBLO IS 104 AND FOR ALAMOSA IS 90. /28
LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
..CONTINUED HOT AND DRY...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...A TYPICAL
PRE-MONSOONAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE ROCKIES. TUE SHOULD BE THE
LAST DAY OF POTENTIAL RECORD-BREAKING HEAT...AS H7 TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 18-20 DEG C RANGE. FIRE WX DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ON TUE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
ON TUE...AND THAT WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG STATUS. THE NAM 12KM
SUGGESTS A FAIRLY BROAD LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVR THE AREA...AND
THE STRONGEST SFC GRADIENT WILL BE OVER W KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE.
THIS COULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT E OF THE MTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
STRONG JET TO OUR N...AND WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECT SOME STRONGER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WINDS SHOULD
STILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON MON...HOWEVER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WX
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY WED...AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
DRAMATICALLY ON WED AS H7 TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW 10 DEG C. COULD EVEN
SEE SOME UPPR 70S ON WED OVR THE PLAINS...FOR A PLEASANT REPRISE
FROM THE HEAT. THE PLEASANTRY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A
TROUGH RELOADS ON THE W COAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
DRY AND HOT W-SW FLOW RESUMES. TEMPS COULD EASILY BE BACK INTO THE
UPPR 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE GENERALLY LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION
THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE TAP LOOKS
MODEST AT BEST. DOG DAYS OF SUMMER APPEAR TO BE WITH US UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. 44
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KALS THRU ABOUT
01Z. KPUB AND KCOS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS THRU
ABOUT 01Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 15-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ064-220>225.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ064-
220>225.
&&
$$
34/34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1201 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE TERRAIN OF
WESTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
NOTED OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...LA SAL MOUNTAINS AND UP TO THE
FLAT TOPS. WATER VAPOR AND RAP PVU ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THIS IS
DUE TO MAIN SHEAR ZONE ENTERING THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND A LEFT OVER WAVE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS IS AIDING THESE AREAS
ATTM. HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THE SOUTHEAST UTAH
MOUNTAINS BUT MOST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SHEAR ZONE ALONG THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN SAN JUAN RANGE. STILL EXPECT
ANY RAINFALL TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH VERY DRY LOW
LAYERS IN PLACE. OUTFLOW WINDS HOWEVER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS IN PLACE AND AN INCREASE IN DOWNDRAFT
CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
THE CWA WILL DEAL WITH AN AREA OF DEFORMATION TODAY THAT WILL
ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO KICK OFF THIS AFTN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
CONSTRAINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS LOW WITH
MODELS SHOWING FROM .3 TO .4 G/KG ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES ON
THE OTHER HAND ARE ABOVE 9.5C/KM SO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK SO NOT MUCH
CHANGE THERE. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUND YET AGAIN WITH PLENTY
OF SUN EXPECTED.
LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SRN CALIF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SW WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY AS
THE JET STREAM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TAKES AIM AT
THE WRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE JET WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT A SHALLOW
TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. EVEN SO...THE STRONG WINDS ASSOD WITH THE JET WILL REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS UTAH AND COLORADO AND PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP MIXING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST SO
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS...AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DESCRIBED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG
WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR SUNDAY. WHILE AREAS NORTH WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS...06Z MODEL RUN HAS WINDS REACHING FURTHER
SOUTH. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...RED FLAG WARNING WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT
AS FAR AS THAT GOES.
SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT COLORADO AND UTAH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
SHALLOW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND JET
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH VERY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DESERT VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST UTAH THE MOST LIKELY TO HIT THIS
HEAT. BY MIDWEEK...MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF US WITH GRADIENTS
RELAXING A BIT AND TEMPS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH HEIGHTS REBUILDING
AND WINDS RELAXING FOR AT LEAST A DAY. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WE CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AND WINDS PICKING BACK UP
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL OR CLOUD
HEIGHTS AFFECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA
TERMINALS...BUT THE ASE AND EGE TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORTS. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT SUNSET THE CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO SET UP.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH TO MANY OF THE
TERMINALS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER PROLONGED RED FLAG EVENT.
EXPECT SFC WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEEP
MIXING OUT AHEAD OF A SHALLOW TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH DAYTIME
HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE POOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL BE UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON SUNDAY TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. LATEST GUIDANCE COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SO EXPANDED MONDAY/S FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
INCLUDE ALL CO FIRE ZONES.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDING
THE WARNINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...OR TRY TO SEPARATE THE EVENTS WITH MARGINAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.
IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER 3 DAY WIND EVENT WITH
THE FOCUS BEING FROM INTERSTATE 70 NORTH. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
HOWEVER...LATEST 06Z RUN HAS INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF SFC WINDS
THAT WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY. NOT COMPLETELY
CONFIDENT ON SOLN SO WILL LEAVE TO DAY SHIFT TO EXAMINE 12Z RUN
AND SEE IF SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN SUNDAY RED
FLAG WARNING.
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200>203.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ482>487.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ482>487.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JDC/JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION COMPRISED OF RIDGING FROM THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS. OUR LOCAL AREA IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 850MB. A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
ADVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS WORKED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY
OUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS DRIER IS IS VERY EVIDENT ON WV AND IN THE
12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE MARKED DRYING WAS MEASURED ABOVE
600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
RIDGING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PENINSULA AND NE GULF. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS PROVIDING A NE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
THE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ONE TRAVELS...AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
GENERALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
BRADENTON. THE LIGHTER GRADIENT DOWN TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA MAY STILL
ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE NE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE MID-LEVELS. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIKELY PREVENT THE
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS COMBINED WITH
AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT CAN REACH A SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY
ENTRAIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR RESULTING IN A RAPID DECAY. HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2
OF 90 UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 01-02Z WITH
THE DIMINISHING SEA-BREEZE...AND WILL END ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE COASTAL LAND ZONES AFTER 11PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
LAST WEEKEND OF SPRING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...
SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR WITH THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A ZONE
OF DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP ATLANTIC TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO BE QUITE HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SOUTH OF
BRADENTON...AND ALSO UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST AND ANY SHOWER
WILL BE BRIEF. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
MID JUNE IN STORE WITH NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS DROPPING
INTO THE 60S.
MONDAY...ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD ALLOWING HEIGHT
RISES/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FL PENINSULA. WITH A DRY
COLUMN OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE ADDED SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE...WILL LEAVE THE SILENT 10% POPS REGION-WIDE INHERITED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. U/L RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL EXTEND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH WEST OF THE
REGION...IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF IT
WOULD PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP...U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW POPS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GFS AND
ECMWF FOR CONSISTENCY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT RUN
INCREASES MOISTURE AND LOWER TEMPS...WILL TREND TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND POPS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE UNTIL HIGHER LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE OCCURS WITH LOW DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ESPECIALLY TPA...PIE...SRQ AND LAL. AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT PGD...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT FMY AND RSW WITH AT LEAST SOME
MVFR IF NOT IFR CONDITIONS 18 TO 21Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS PROVIDING A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS HIGH
CONFIGURATION IS A GOOD SETUP FOR NOCTURNAL EASTERLY WIND SURGES AND
WILL EXPECT THIS SCENARIO THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. EXPECTING WINDS THIS
EVENING TO INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A RETURN TO CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 35 PERCENT MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 90 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 71 91 70 92 / 20 20 10 10
GIF 69 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 70 92 70 92 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 64 91 64 91 / 10 20 10 10
SPG 74 90 75 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1140 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION COMPRISED OF RIDGING FROM THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS. OUR LOCAL AREA IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 850MB. A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
ADVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS WORKED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY
OUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS DRIER IS IS VERY EVIDENT ON WV AND IN THE
12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE MARKED DRYING WAS MEASURED ABOVE
600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
RIDGING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PENINSULA AND NE GULF. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS PROVIDING A NE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
THE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ONE TRAVELS...AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
GENERALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
&&
.UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST BASED ON
EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF BRADENTON. THE LIGHTER GRADIENT DOWN TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY STILL ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE NE
SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE MID-LEVELS. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THE GRADIENT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIKELY PREVENT THE
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS COMBINED WITH
AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT CAN REACH A SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY
ENTRAIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR RESULTING IN A RAPID DECAY. HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2
OF 90 UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 01-02Z WITH
THE DIMINISHING SEA-BREEZE...AND WILL END ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE COASTAL LAND ZONES AFTER 11PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
LAST WEEKEND OF SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND THE
TERMINALS TODAY. AN EASTERLY SURGE COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN WITH ROBUST WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND 15-2O KT
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...WHERE EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK...PROVIDING GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WITH AN EVENING SURGE
OF WINDS LIKELY MOST DAYS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUN WHEN THE
GRADIENT BRIEFLY RELAXES AND ALLOWS AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 72 91 71 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 91 71 92 71 / 40 20 20 10
GIF 90 69 91 69 / 20 10 10 10
SRQ 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 10 10
BKV 91 65 91 65 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 90 74 89 75 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
MROCZKA/JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
523 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
458 PM CDT
TWO MAIN FOCUS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR STORMS. STORMS ACROSS
INDIANA ARE HELPING TO OCCASIONALLY HIT SEVERE CRITERIA ON THE NOSE
OF RAP/RUC ANALYZED H7 SPEED MAX AND NOSE OF A THETA E TONGUE. AT
THE SURFACE...DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE TO BE REALIZED. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...ALLOWING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
TO FALL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND FOCUS IS TIED TO THE MCV/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND SHIFTING EAST. MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS TO BE
LINED UP DIRECTLY TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT WITHIN AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS BASICALLY UNTAPPED. CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL WITH THESE STORMS AND THE FORMATION
OF A COLD POOL MAY BE UNDERWAY. THE EARLIER RAP/RUC HAD BEEN
UNDER DOING LOWER LEVEL WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO PROFILER AND 88D VAD
PROFILES...BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION. ALL GUIDANCE INCREASES THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY HELP TO CONVECTION TO FORM INTO A
BOWING SEGMENT AIDED BY A MODERATE REAR INFLOW JET. THERE IS NO
REASON FOR THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BEFORE IT MOVES EAST AND INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE OF A WAIT AND SEE TO TELL IF
ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THE COLD POOL INCREASES...OF IF THE STORMS
REMAIN MORE OF THE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER THAT IS PRESENTLY BEING
NOTED. INCREDIBLY HIGH PWATS /RANGING FROM 1.7 TO ROUGHLY 1.9
INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT. SHEA
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
515 PM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.
A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.
ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING
* MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...MID/LATE EVENING
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER/IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
BIGGEST CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS WAS TO CLOSE THE TIME WINDOW FOR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA THREAT MID/LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
SOME CONCERN DOES EXIST THAT EAST-WEST BAND OF TSRA COULD DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE BETWEEN 01-03Z...ADDED VCSH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
IZZI
UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
518 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
528 AM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.
A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.
ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL
EAST AND WEST OF C90 AIRSPACE THROUGH 00Z.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
506 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
458 PM CDT
TWO MAIN FOCUS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR STORMS. STORMS ACROSS
INDIANA ARE HELPING TO OCCASIONALLY HIT SEVERE CRITERIA ON THE NOSE
OF RAP/RUC ANALYZED H7 SPEED MAX AND NOSE OF A THETA E TONGUE. AT
THE SURFACE...DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE TO BE REALIZED. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...ALLOWING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
TO FALL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND FOCUS IS TIED TO THE MCV/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND SHIFTING EAST. MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS TO BE
LINED UP DIRECTLY TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT WITHIN AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS BASICALLY UNTAPPED. CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL WITH THESE STORMS AND THE FORMATION
OF A COLD POOL MAY BE UNDERWAY. THE EARLIER RAP/RUC HAD BEEN
UNDER DOING LOWER LEVEL WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO PROFILER AND 88D VAD
PROFILES...BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION. ALL GUIDANCE INCREASES THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY HELP TO CONVECTION TO FORM INTO A
BOWING SEGMENT AIDED BY A MODERATE REAR INFLOW JET. THERE IS NO
REASON FOR THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BEFORE IT MOVES EAST AND INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE OF A WAIT AND SEE TO TELL IF
ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THE COLD POOL INCREASES...OF IF THE STORMS
REMAIN MORE OF THE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER THAT IS PRESENTLY BEING
NOTED. INCREDIBLY HIGH PWATS /RANGING FROM 1.7 TO ROUGHLY 1.9
INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT. SHEA
&&
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
528 AM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 35
PERCENT BY MIDDAY ACROSS ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 40 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND
20 MPH.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY...THE
RECENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND WILL PROVIDE SOME LOCATIONS WITH A WETTING RAIN.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...ON
SUNDAY THEY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HOT AIR RETURNS
MONDAY ON SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON THE SCATTERED RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP UP PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL
EAST AND WEST OF C90 AIRSPACE THROUGH 00Z.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
339 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
528 AM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 35
PERCENT BY MIDDAY ACROSS ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 40 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND
20 MPH.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY...THE
RECENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND WILL PROVIDE SOME LOCATIONS WITH A WETTING RAIN.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...ON
SUNDAY THEY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HOT AIR RETURNS
MONDAY ON SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON THE SCATTERED RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP UP PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL
EAST AND WEST OF C90 AIRSPACE THROUGH 00Z.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1216 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE SHOWERS POP UP NEAR BLOOMINGTON AND EFFINGHAM
EARLIER...BUT THESE FADED OUT AFTER ABOUT 15-20 MINUTES. SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINS OUT TO OUR WEST...FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCS OVER KANSAS SENT A WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THAT WAS EVIDENT ON RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR LATER
REGENERATION. UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ALSO A
POTENTIAL SOURCE...AS EVIDENT ON LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS. HOWEVER...
14Z RAP MODEL FAVORS MORE OF A POP-UP ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR AREA.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
MORE OF A THREAT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES FAVOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN.
DUE TO THE COMPLICATED SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO THE RAIN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD ASIDE
FROM THE USUAL HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED UP
THE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF SET WILL BE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HAVE SEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR KCMI OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO GO MORE THAN
VCTS THERE AT THIS TIME. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
LIKELY TIME FRAME LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEVELOPMENT...BEGINNING
WEST OF KPIA AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD IN THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED
A TEMPO PERIOD OF 5SM TSRA FOR KPIA/KBMI/KSPI TO TRY AND TIME THE
MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF STORMS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT KDEC/KCMI AS
DEVELOPMENT AND POSITIONS OF STORMS IN THOSE AREAS IS LESS CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE TAF SITES BY 12Z.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DUE TO MCV REMNANTS/1012
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH TAIL OF CONVECTION EXTENDING SE
INTO NW PARTS OF ILX CWA NW...CURRENTLY WEST OF PEORIA AND LIFTING
NNE. AIR MASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG WITH SSW FLOW BRINGING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
GETS MOST UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NW IL WHERE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE IL...JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NW OF THE
IL RIVER WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NW IL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS
ARE WEST OF IL CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS.
THIS FRONT TO PRESS SE INTO NW IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL IL ON
SUNDAY (FATHERS DAY). BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AGAIN CLOSER TO FRONT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SE IL. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND SE IL SUNDAY WHILE LOWER CHANCES NW OF THE IL
RIVER. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER BUT HUMID AGAIN.
CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS IL. INCREASED SSW WINDS MONDAY AND
BRINGS BACK HOTTER AIR MASS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUE THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SE STATES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF IL DURING THIS TIME TO SAG BACK SOUTH
INTO IL LATER NEXT WEEK RETURNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-72 THU AND ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI.
TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE SHOWERS POP UP NEAR BLOOMINGTON AND EFFINGHAM
EARLIER...BUT THESE FADED OUT AFTER ABOUT 15-20 MINUTES. SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINS OUT TO OUR WEST...FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCS OVER KANSAS SENT A WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THAT WAS EVIDENT ON RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR LATER
REGENERATION. UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ALSO A
POTENTIAL SOURCE...AS EVIDENT ON LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS. HOWEVER...
14Z RAP MODEL FAVORS MORE OF A POP-UP ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR AREA.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
MORE OF A THREAT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES FAVOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN.
DUE TO THE COMPLICATED SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO THE RAIN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD ASIDE
FROM THE USUAL HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED UP
THE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING
NORTH OF THE KILX TERMINALS. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA...BKN CU FIELD AT AROUND 6000FT WILL DEVELOP.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY POP UP IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS AS WELL...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MINIMAL...SO
MENTION IN TAFS IS NOT WARRANTED. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. 06Z NAM SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
REACHING KPIA BY AROUND 23Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BETWEEN
02Z AND 03Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING TIMING AND EXACT
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY MENTION VCTS AT THIS
TIME. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE MAY TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ENDED THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25KT AT TIMES.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DUE TO MCV REMNANTS/1012
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH TAIL OF CONVECTION EXTENDING SE
INTO NW PARTS OF ILX CWA NW...CURRENTLY WEST OF PEORIA AND LIFTING
NNE. AIR MASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG WITH SSW FLOW BRINGING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
GETS MOST UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NW IL WHERE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE IL...JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NW OF THE
IL RIVER WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NW IL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS
ARE WEST OF IL CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS.
THIS FRONT TO PRESS SE INTO NW IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL IL ON
SUNDAY (FATHERS DAY). BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AGAIN CLOSER TO FRONT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SE IL. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND SE IL SUNDAY WHILE LOWER CHANCES NW OF THE IL
RIVER. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER BUT HUMID AGAIN.
CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS IL. INCREASED SSW WINDS MONDAY AND
BRINGS BACK HOTTER AIR MASS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUE THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SE STATES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF IL DURING THIS TIME TO SAG BACK SOUTH
INTO IL LATER NEXT WEEK RETURNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-72 THU AND ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI.
TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CHANGES APPEARING MORE LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES IN NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD GETS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AS INITIAL
SHORT WAVES OVER IOWA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PLAINS
HAS BEEN FIRING SCATTERED STORM FROM DAKOTAS TO TEXAS. AS THIS
SHORT WAVE OVERTAKES GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK BETTER. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BEHIND THIS AS NEXT
SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS TO OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEAT OF TODAY WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE WITH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY BUT
RETURN IN EARNEST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. HEAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR THAN OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF 14Z.
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE CORE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT. HAVE SEEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SE INDIANA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AT THE NOSE OF A SUBTLE JET AT
925MB. RECENT RAP DATA INDICATING THAT THIS JET SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE JET SHIFTS EAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE
LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT FORECAST AREA...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS ANY
LOCALIZED OUTFLOWS THAT CAN FORM FROM STORMS. MOST RECENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT MUCH OF THE FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONE FEATURE THAT MAY SERVE TO ACCENTUATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO RESIDE. HAVE
THEREFORE BUMPED UP TO SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-70 AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A 20 POPS ELSEWHERE
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM.
ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GIVE SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AS WELL DEVELOPED
MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA APPROACHES THE REGION.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE WEST BASED ON THE QUICK RISE
ALREADY. OTHERWISE MADE NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONCERNS AGAIN REGARDING CHANGE FROM NO POPS TONIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS. EURO LESS PROGRESSIVE IN SOUTHEAST PUSH OF TROUGH
AND KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT LAKES. ALL OTHER MODELS
DIG TROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER AND BRING MORE RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL AGAIN USE A BLEND AND LEAN TOWARD LOWER CHANCE POPS AND LOWER
RAIN AMOUNTS OF EURO...IN PART TIED TO CURRENT DROUGHT AND
SURFACE MOISTURE BEING A LIMITING FACTOR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TAIL END OF ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS AREA CONTINUING THREAT FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS CURRENT FORECAST. IN TOTAL...RAIN AMOUNTS
TO A QUARTER INCH LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH SOME LOCALS
LIKELY WILL SEE NEAR AN INCH. AS FOR TEMPS...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SOME RAINY PERIODS SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS TO MID
80S. MODERATELY MOIST DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS CLOSE TO 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WEST.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
CANADIAN BEGINS TO DIVERGE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF BY THURSDAY. THE
CANADIAN HOLDS ON TO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ALLBLEND 40 POPS APPEAR REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DECENT SATURATION AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF
SITES ROUGHLY 161900Z-162300Z AS THE TAIL END OF AN MCV...CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...MOVES THROUGH. FEATURE APPEARS WEAK
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES 030-040.
BETTER THREAT OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AFTER ABOUT
170300Z-170400Z...WHEN DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
IOWA/MISSOURI BEGINS AFFECTING THE AREA. PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH MODELS INDICATING AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 30 KTS.
OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
200-230 HEADINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KLAF/KIND/KHUF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....HOMANN
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CHANGES APPEARING MORE LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES IN NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD GETS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AS INITIAL
SHORT WAVES OVER IOWA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PLAINS
HAS BEEN FIRING SCATTERED STORM FROM DAKOTAS TO TEXAS. AS THIS
SHORT WAVE OVERTAKES GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK BETTER. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BEHIND THIS AS NEXT
SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS TO OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEAT OF TODAY WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE WITH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY BUT
RETURN IN EARNEST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. HEAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR THAN OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF 14Z.
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE CORE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT. HAVE SEEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SE INDIANA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AT THE NOSE OF A SUBTLE JET AT
925MB. RECENT RAP DATA INDICATING THAT THIS JET SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE JET SHIFTS EAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE
LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT FORECAST AREA...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS ANY
LOCALIZED OUTFLOWS THAT CAN FORM FROM STORMS. MOST RECENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT MUCH OF THE FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONE FEATURE THAT MAY SERVE TO ACCENTUATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO RESIDE. HAVE
THEREFORE BUMPED UP TO SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-70 AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A 20 POPS ELSEWHERE
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM.
ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GIVE SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AS WELL DEVELOPED
MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA APPROACHES THE REGION.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE WEST BASED ON THE QUICK RISE
ALREADY. OTHERWISE MADE NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONCERNS AGAIN REGARDING CHANGE FROM NO POPS TONIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS. EURO LESS PROGRESSIVE IN SOUTHEAST PUSH OF TROUGH
AND KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT LAKES. ALL OTHER MODELS
DIG TROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER AND BRING MORE RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL AGAIN USE A BLEND AND LEAN TOWARD LOWER CHANCE POPS AND LOWER
RAIN AMOUNTS OF EURO...IN PART TIED TO CURRENT DROUGHT AND
SURFACE MOISTURE BEING A LIMITING FACTOR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TAIL END OF ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS AREA CONTINUING THREAT FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS CURRENT FORECAST. IN TOTAL...RAIN AMOUNTS
TO A QUARTER INCH LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH SOME LOCALS
LIKELY WILL SEE NEAR AN INCH. AS FOR TEMPS...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SOME RAINY PERIODS SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS TO MID
80S. MODERATELY MOIST DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS CLOSE TO 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WEST.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
CANADIAN BEGINS TO DIVERGE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF BY THURSDAY. THE
CANADIAN HOLDS ON TO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ALLBLEND 40 POPS APPEAR REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DECENT SATURATION AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
A VORTICITY TAIL CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KIND AREA ROUGHLY
161900Z-162200Z. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM THIS MORNING/S UPPER
AIR SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITH FEATURE...ALTHOUGH
FEATURE AT PRESENT IS RATHER WEAK. WILL HOLD ONTO THE VCTS FORECAST
FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY BE HITTING THINGS TOO HARD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT ANY CENTRAL INDIANA TAF
SITES. WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
CUMULUS FORMATION SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED
STORMS BY 18Z. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MODELS HINT AT THESE BECOMING
ORGANIZED...PERHAPS INTO LINE OR LARGE CLUSTER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....HOMANN
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THE MCV FROM YESTERDAYS MCS IN THE PLAINS IS HELPING TO GENERATE
AN AREA OF SHRA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PER RADAR TRENDS
THESE SHRA SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHEAST CWFA BY 15Z. RAP TRENDS
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE SEEN FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
RAP TRENDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
AS THE MCV AND UPPER LOW EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA THE RAP
MODEL IS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN THE
FCST MAX TEMPERATURES SO CONVECTION THERE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNSET WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK FRONT.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA THE RAP MODEL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND THE FCST MAX TEMPERATURES. THUS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWFA APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORED FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL USING THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS WELL. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA WILL AFFECT KDBQ/KMLI THROUGH 13Z/16.
BY 15Z/16 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
IOWA OVER THE PAST 3 HRS THAT COULD AFFECT KDBQ. TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DVLP AFT 20Z/16 THAT BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH 06Z/17.
KMLI/KBRL WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BEING AFFECTED BY MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED INTO THE 12Z
TAFS AT THIS TIME. ...08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS IS QUITE NOISY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE FEATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE RESPECTIVE MCS COMPLEXES. BUBBLE HIGHS
AND WAKE LOWS RAN FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS MCS/MCC WAS NEAR KFOD WITH ANOTHER NEAR
KCDJ. THE MAIN FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO A
LOW NEAR KPIR AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO KCYS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SOME 70S IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ALONG WITH RAP/GEM TRENDS SEEM TO DEPICT
REASONABLE WELL HOW THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD EVOLVE TODAY/TONIGHT.
RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NNE THROUGH 12Z AND SHOULD BE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD THE CONVECTIVE TEMP. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS SKIES SHOULD ALSO PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING STRONGER
SOLAR INSOLATION TO OCCUR.
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE MCS/LIFT TOOLS WHEN APPLIED TO THE GEM AND
EXTRAPOLATING THE 12HR RAP FCST INDICATE ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS MCS SHOULD TURN SEVERE AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI VECTORS. AT THE SAME TIME
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THE ONE CONCERN TO THIS SCENARIO IS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. RAP TRENDS AND THE GEM SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE FCST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI SHOULD STEAL A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE INFLOW FOR STORMS OVER THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THINGS WOULD DEVELOP JUST RIGHT...A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A KSQI TO KOTM
LINE.
TONIGHT THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWFA AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING
UPON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY END ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY. ..08..
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM BEGIN WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND
WAA LEADING TO A TOASTY BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AND END WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXIT MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT IN THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY THAT EVENING AND
RESULTING WAA MAY SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW SINCE THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS AS A RESULT. GFS CONTINUES FORECASTING
VERY POORLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...THUS
BELIEVE ITS CONTRIBUTION TO GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS TOO COOL.
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC
WITH INCONSISTENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AMONGST EACH OTHER AND AS
OBSERVED VIA DPROG/DT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GEM
HAVE INDICATED SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
SLOWER AS A CLOSED LOW OR QUICKER AS AN OPEN WAVE. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO THE FRONTAL
STRENGTH WILL BE KEY TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES. FAVORED THE OPEN
TROUGH SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS CAPE AND PWS ARE
SUSPECT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ISSUE WITH POOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. THE GFS CURRENTLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
MIDDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER...SO AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT PASSAGE WOULD BE AT A FAVORABLE TIME OF THE DAY. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS IS QUITE NOISY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE FEATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE RESPECTIVE MCS COMPLEXES. BUBBLE HIGHS
AND WAKE LOWS RAN FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS MCS/MCC WAS NEAR KFOD WITH ANOTHER NEAR
KCDJ. THE MAIN FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO A
LOW NEAR KPIR AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO KCYS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SOME 70S IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ALONG WITH RAP/GEM TRENDS SEEM TO DEPICT
REASONABLE WELL HOW THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD EVOLVE TODAY/TONIGHT.
RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NNE THROUGH 12Z AND SHOULD BE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD THE CONVECTIVE TEMP. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS SKIES SHOULD ALSO PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING STRONGER
SOLAR INSOLATION TO OCCUR.
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE MCS/LIFT TOOLS WHEN APPLIED TO THE GEM AND
EXTRAPOLATING THE 12HR RAP FCST INDICATE ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS MCS SHOULD TURN SEVERE AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI VECTORS. AT THE SAME TIME
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THE ONE CONCERN TO THIS SCENARIO IS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. RAP TRENDS AND THE GEM SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE FCST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI SHOULD STEAL A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE INFLOW FOR STORMS OVER THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THINGS WOULD DEVELOP JUST RIGHT...A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A KSQI TO KOTM
LINE.
TONIGHT THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWFA AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING
UPON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY END ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY. ..08..
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM BEGIN WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND
WAA LEADING TO A TOASTY BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AND END WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXIT MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT IN THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY THAT EVENING AND
RESULTING WAA MAY SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW SINCE THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS AS A RESULT. GFS CONTINUES FORECASTING
VERY POORLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...THUS
BELIEVE ITS CONTRIBUTION TO GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS TOO COOL.
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC
WITH INCONSISTENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AMONGST EACH OTHER AND AS
OBSERVED VIA DPROG/DT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GEM
HAVE INDICATED SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
SLOWER AS A CLOSED LOW OR QUICKER AS AN OPEN WAVE. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO THE FRONTAL
STRENGTH WILL BE KEY TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES. FAVORED THE OPEN
TROUGH SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS CAPE AND PWS ARE
SUSPECT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ISSUE WITH POOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. THE GFS CURRENTLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
MIDDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER...SO AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT PASSAGE WOULD BE AT A FAVORABLE TIME OF THE DAY. WOLF
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT ALL THE TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVERNIGHT FOR KCID/KDBQ
TERMINALS. THEN AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
THE TERMINALS WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
SATURDAY PM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NICHOLS
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/WOLF/WDN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...OTHER THAN MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS...IS STARTING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF MID-MISSOURI VALLEY MCV...EVIDENCED BY
700-500MB RIDGING OVER KS...IS LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS WELL. GIVEN STRONGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE ANYTHING OUT
YET...BUT IF CURRENT TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING
EVENING POPS.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLY
RETURNING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE KC METRO...WSW INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS. OLD
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY
WASHED OUT OVER CENTRAL OK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE
MCV (FROM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING) IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH A MUCH SMALLER MCV
(FROM TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT) MEANDERING OVER
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING NICELY OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS KS. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
MCV TO THE NORTHEAST...THINKING CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE WILL
ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ZIPPERING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST KS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO PER
LATEST HRRR AND OUN WRF MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY COULD EVEN BUBBLE FURTHER WSW ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK NORTHERN OK MCV. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
ROLLING ESE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING LLJ...ALTHOUGH LOWER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS THIS AREA. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY & HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST
INITIALLY)...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ACTIVITY COULD TEND TO
LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS WELL INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT IN STALLING THE BOUNDARY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO LASTING PAST
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MID/LATE EVENING.
ANTICIPATING CENTRAL KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MCV PRODUCED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...ENDED UP LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. HOWEVER...THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AS DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WASHES OUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY LATE MORNING. GOOD MIXING AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER
90S...WITH NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
STRENGTHENING HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S APPEAR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVING BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS. SUSPECT THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH...SO OTHER
THAN SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...WARMING TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY...AS SOUTHERN/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE LEFT SOME UPPER ENERGY THAT IS SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST KS. THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SO TOOK VCTS OUT EVERYWHERE BUT KICT AND
KCNU WHICH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING AT KCNU.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 70 94 74 96 / 40 20 10 0
HUTCHINSON 69 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
NEWTON 68 94 74 96 / 30 20 10 0
ELDORADO 68 91 73 93 / 40 20 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 93 73 95 / 50 20 10 0
RUSSELL 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 68 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
MCPHERSON 68 95 74 97 / 20 20 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
CHANUTE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
IOLA 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER MCV OVER NORTHEAST KS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A MESO LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCV WAS OVER NORTHWEST MO WITH A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MCV SHOULD DOMINATE WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. WITH
SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE MCV EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL KS. ALONG THE TURNPIKE AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS...THERE IS
STILL DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
TROUGH AXIS FOR STORMS TO POTENTIALLY FORM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ONLY 25 TO 30 KTS.
THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE MULTICELLULAR WITH A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREAT. IF A DISCRETE STORM WHERE ABLE TO HANG
OUT FOR ENOUGH TIME WITHOUT INTERFERENCE FROM OTHER STORMS...THERE
COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL. AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN CO...BUT LATEST MODEL
PROGS SHOW THIS CONVECTION LIKELY STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AIDING IN SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO WESTERN KS. THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE THE WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY. INSTABILITY SHOULD
STILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
BE SLOW TO ADVECT OVER EASTERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. SO IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVELS...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SFC FEATURE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS LOW SO HAVE
ONLY GONE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO DEEP MIXING AND WARMING TEMPS AT MID
LEVELS...HIGHS SUNDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER. 850 TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 20C RANGE SUGGEST LOW TO MID 90S ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR HIGHS.
WOLTERS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK UPPER FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
STATES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WAVE
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...EVEN WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
ADDITION. SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP
WINDS KEEP A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT MONDAY...AND AID IN HIGHER TEMPS
AND WINDS...WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE IN DEEP MIXING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPS /HEAT INDICES/ AS WELL WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT LEVELS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP AIR TEMPS BELOW THIS MARK AT THIS
POINT BUT EXPECT ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND 25C. NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE REORGANIZES TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK
WITH A STRONGER WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE TO REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COULD
HANG AROUND FOR A FEW PERIODS DEPENDING OF COURSE ON MCV/OUTFLOW
EFFECTS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA ON
INTO FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY AND
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION THAT COULD FORM ON ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
65
&&
.AVIATION...
THINK WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MCV SO CLOSE TO TOP AND FOE...THAT
STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS. RATHER THAN
HAVE A PREVAILING GROUP FOR THUNDER...JUST HAVE A VCTS MENTION
THINKING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF TOP AND FOE RATHER QUICKLY
SIMILAR TO THE 14Z HRRR PROG. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF STORMS FROM
MHK WITH IT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCV. UNLESS STORMS MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINALS...WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLY
RETURNING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE KC METRO...WSW INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS. OLD
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY
WASHED OUT OVER CENTRAL OK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE
MCV (FROM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING) IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH A MUCH SMALLER MCV
(FROM TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT) MEANDERING OVER
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING NICELY OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS KS. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
MCV TO THE NORTHEAST...THINKING CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE WILL
ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ZIPPERING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST KS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO PER
LATEST HRRR AND OUN WRF MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY COULD EVEN BUBBLE FURTHER WSW ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK NORTHERN OK MCV. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
ROLLING ESE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING LLJ...ALTHOUGH LOWER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS THIS AREA. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY & HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST
INITIALLY)...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ACTIVITY COULD TEND TO
LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS WELL INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT IN STALLING THE BOUNDARY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO LASTING PAST
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MID/LATE EVENING.
ANTICIPATING CENTRAL KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MCV PRODUCED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...ENDED UP LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. HOWEVER...THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AS DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WASHES OUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY LATE MORNING. GOOD MIXING AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER
90S...WITH NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
STRENGTHENING HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S APPEAR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVING BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS. SUSPECT THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH...SO OTHER
THAN SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...WARMING TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY...AS SOUTHERN/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE LEFT SOME UPPER ENERGY THAT IS SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST KS. THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SO TOOK VCTS OUT EVERYWHERE BUT KICT AND
KCNU WHICH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING AT KCNU.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 70 94 74 96 / 40 20 10 0
HUTCHINSON 69 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
NEWTON 68 94 74 96 / 30 20 10 0
ELDORADO 68 91 73 93 / 40 20 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 93 73 95 / 50 20 10 0
RUSSELL 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 68 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
MCPHERSON 68 95 74 97 / 20 20 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
CHANUTE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
IOLA 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1212 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS THROWN A WRENCH IN
THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SHIFTING THE
AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST. RADAR AND SATELLITE SUGGEST
THE MCV WAS OVER NEMAHA CO WITH A MESO LOW JUST WEST OF TOP. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL
EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE MESO LOW...SO THIS IS WHERE NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MCV. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS WHERE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MCV SHOULD HINDER
PRECIP. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN FAR EASTERN KS
STILL. BUT GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE MULTI CELLULAR WITH WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS.
WOLTERS
&&
.AVIATION...
THINK WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MCV SO CLOSE TO TOP AND FOE...THAT
STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS. RATHER THAN
HAVE A PREVAILING GROUP FOR THUNDER...JUST HAVE A VCTS MENTION
THINKING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF TOP AND FOE RATHER QUICKLY
SIMILAR TO THE 14Z HRRR PROG. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF STORMS FROM
MHK WITH IT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCV. UNLESS STORMS MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINALS...WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
SHORT TERM - THROUGH SUNDAY... A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IS
SETTING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THAT THE PERIOD IS STARTING
OFF WITH A POORLY DEVELOPED MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EDGING
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EMBEDDED
MCV/MESO LOW PIVOTING ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS CONTINUES
TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT AND LLJ...INHIBITING SOME INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONVECTION.
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS WELL.
CURRENTLY...BEST APPROXIMATION OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
DAY IS THAT ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION AS IT TREKS FARTHER EAST.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE A
MORE DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER WITH ANY COLD POOL/SHEAR
INTERACTIONS NOT BEING NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO A LONG LIVED MCS.
THUS...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EVENTUAL FAVORITISM CLOSER TO THE
NEBRASKA BORDER AS ENERGY LIFTS A BIT MORE NORTH WITH TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW AS NO MODEL HAS HAD A PARTICULARLY
STRONG GRASP OF EVOLUTION SO FAR...HRRR MAY BE CLOSE TO REALITY
BUT ALSO HAS REASONS TO DISTRUST IT...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER KANSAS COULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
EFFECTS ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING...EXPECT REINVIGORATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND ENHANCES
LIFT. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH ANY REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
MCV REMNANTS TO INDUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO
RECHARGE INSTABILITY AFTER ANY EARLY CONVECTION...WITH DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL...
AND PERHAPS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WOULD APPEAR TO BE WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
CONGLOMERATION OF DOWNDRAFTS INTO WELL DEVELOPED FORWARD
PROPAGATING COLD POOLS. HOWEVER...EVEN AT THIS POINT...A LOT OF
THE DETAILS REGARDING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ARE UNKNOWN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MORNING CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT...DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN A CONVERGENCE OF THE JET ACROSS KANSAS.
SHOULD SEE ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP OR BECOME
ENHANCED AS THE JET INCREASES WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
PROPAGATION. THE LLJ WILL VEER AFTER O8Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR TS DEVELOPMENT WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
TREND.
SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF THE WEAK AND
WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY
CONVECTION. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA STAND
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...BUT IF THE FRONT HANGS
OUT A BIT FARTHER NORTH...THEN THOSE CHANCES WOULD SHIFT NORTH AS
WELL. AS OF NOW...HAVE LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MID TERM - SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARM PERIOD AS AN EXPANSIVE EML/CAP
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 90S WHILE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS RATHER HIGH WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS LIKELY APPROACHING
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ON MONDAY. THE STRONG CAP WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM - WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER SPORADICALLY WET PERIOD AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEPOSITS ANOTHER
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION...AND HAVE TRENDED AT
LEAST A BIT COOLER THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS OF NOW...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO COME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MCS ACTIVITY TO DIVE SOUTH
OFF OF THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO THAT TIME FRAME
SO HAVE INCLUDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT GRAZING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE: FOG CHANNEL SAT IMG INDICATES FOG AND STRATUS JUST
OFFSHORE. STILL EXPECTING FOG AND STRATUS TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NEXT
3 HOURS OR SO AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD TO THE BANGOR AREA. EXPECT
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT.
620 PM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. FOG AND STRATUS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
DOWNEAST. BOTH HRRR AND REG GEM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF FOG
CURRENTLY BETWEEN CAPE COD AND YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD REACHING THE COAST AROUND 2AM MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS THE BANGOR AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION, PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3AM AND 6AM MONDAY
MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUING AS A RESULT. THE
ONE CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COME IN FROM THE EAST AND AFFECT MAINLY
COASTAL AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY ALSO FORM
INLAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ANY FOG/CLOUDS THAT FORM
WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE NORTH TO THE 65-70 RANGE DOWNEAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COOL NIGHT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH THE ALLAGASH
ACTUALLY EXPERIENCING THE UPPER RANGE OF THESE TEMPERATURES. THE
FOG AND STRATUS AND BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW
70S FOR MUCH OF DOWN EAST TO INCLUDE BANGOR. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
ALLAGASH AND SJV. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM
TO THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY REBUILD FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS WILL RETURN DOWN EAST OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE ALLAGASH AND MUCH
COOLER LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CONTINUING MARINE LAYER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT PASS THROUGH THE STATE OR BRING ANY
COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A DRIER
WESTERLY WIND AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR
INTERIOR DOWN EAST. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING LEFTOVER FROM THE FRONT AND OTHERWISE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH BRINGS SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN MCS
TYPE OF FEATURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
REFLECT THIS RISK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM AIR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70F
RANGE AND A POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S. A MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF HOULTON...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL DROP TO THE MID 70S NORTH
AND NEAR 80F DOWN EAST AND EVEN LOWER FOR SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND AFFECT KBGR AND KBHB
BEFORE BURNING OFF TOMORROW MORNING. A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.
ALSO EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT / EARLY TOMORROW DUE TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG.
SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME VLIFR POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND
BHB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TUESDAY AND RETURN FOR
DOWN EAST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
REDUCED VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY IN THE FORM
OF HAZE AND FOG. WAVE HTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY IN
A SOUTHERLY SWELL REACHING 4 OR EVEN 5 FEET.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOSTER
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOSTER/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 930 AM: ACCORDING TO SAT IMG, WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS HAS
STARTED TO ERODE DUE TO MIXING. USING HRRR SKY FORECAST, WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN
DISSIPATE CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE 0545L: MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO AREA OF STRATUS MOVING WWRD
ACROSS THE FA. ALSO A VERY MINOR TWEAK MADE TO THE HRLY TEMPS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE W/ LATEST READINGS...
PREV DISC: ONLY ISSUE THRU THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF STRATUS
CURRENTLY SPREADING WWRD ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS ATTM... THE HRRR MDL
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND FCSTS THIS CLD COVER TO
SPREAD WWRD ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM.
THEREAFTER...STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED TO MIX THESE CLDS OUT ALL
AREAS W/ SOME MINOR CONCERN AS TO HOW QUICK THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT SCTD SKIES MOST AREAS
BY 14-15Z. MOST RH PROGS THEN PUSH THIS MOISTURE JUST S AND SW OF
THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVE AT WHICH TIME IT IS ADVECTED NWRD ACROSS
OUR WRN COASTAL AREAS AND INTO OUR SWRN ZNS. WILL SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN CLDS ACROSS OUR SRN AND SWRN AREAS OVERNIGHT TNGT...
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CLOUDINESS TDY AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TDY AND TNGT SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT AS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM
LABRADOR...ACROSS OUR REGION AND DOWN THE E COAST CONTS TO PROVIDE
THE REGION W/ PLEASANT TEMPS/RH`S...MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVING
IN OFF THE OCEAN EARLY EACH MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DOWNEAST AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MID WEEK. EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE DRY AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT TRICKY, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT. THE
NEW 00Z GFS SAGS THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
IT OVER NORTHERN MAINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING IT THROUGH DOWNEAST BY THAT EVENING. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE TRIED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. ALSO, BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE FRONTAL PASSAGES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. IF THE NEW ECMWF IS CORRECT, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVERYONE WILL EASILY REACH
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS COVERS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT STARTING
TO SHOWS SIGNS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. WILL KEEP
MVFR STRATUS DECK UNTIL AROUND NOONTIME THEN SCATTER CLOUDS AT
THAT TIME.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AT KBHB AND PERHAPS KBGR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG THRU TNGT. ATTM...AREA OF
STRATUS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS NB AND THE BAY OF FUNDY AND JUST
ENTERING OUR FAR NERN WATERS. IN THE NEAR TERM EXPECT JUST THIS
STRATUS W/ NO ISSUES FROM FOG BUT FOG CHCS APPEAR TO INCREASE LATER
TNGT/ERLY SUN SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG FOR LATER TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...FOSTER/KHW
MARINE...FOSTER/KHW/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
537 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0545L: MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO AREA OF STRATUS MOVING WWRD
ACROSS THE FA. ALSO A VERY MINOR TWEAK MADE TO THE HRLY TEMPS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE W/ LATEST READINGS...
PREV DISC: ONLY ISSUE THRU THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF STRATUS
CURRENTLY SPREADING WWRD ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS ATTM... THE HRRR MDL
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND FCSTS THIS CLD COVER TO
SPREAD WWRD ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM.
THEREAFTER...STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED TO MIX THESE CLDS OUT ALL
AREAS W/ SOME MINOR CONCERN AS TO HOW QUICK THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT SCTD SKIES MOST AREAS
BY 14-15Z. MOST RH PROGS THEN PUSH THIS MOISTURE JUST S AND SW OF
THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVE AT WHICH TIME IT IS ADVECTED NWRD ACROSS
OUR WRN COASTAL AREAS AND INTO OUR SWRN ZNS. WILL SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN CLDS ACROSS OUR SRN AND SWRN AREAS OVERNIGHT TNGT...
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CLOUDINESS TDY AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TDY AND TNGT SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT AS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM
LABRADOR...ACROSS OUR REGION AND DOWN THE E COAST CONTS TO PROVIDE
THE REGION W/ PLEASANT TEMPS/RH`S...MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVING
IN OFF THE OCEAN EARLY EACH MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DOWNEAST AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MID WEEK. EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE DRY AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT TRICKY, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT. THE
NEW 00Z GFS SAGS THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
IT OVER NORTHERN MAINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING IT THROUGH DOWNEAST BY THAT EVENING. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE TRIED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. ALSO, BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE FRONTAL PASSAGES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. IF THE NEW ECMWF IS CORRECT, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVERYONE WILL EASILY REACH
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LARGE AREA OF STRATUS W/ MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING OUR FAR ERN AREAS W/ KHUL MVFR FOR THE LAST HR OR
SO. THIS CLD DECK EXPECTED TO CONT TO SPREAD WWRD W/ KCAR/KPQI
EXPECTED TO GO MVFR AT ANY TIME. PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE CIGS...EXPECT CONT
WWRD SPREAD W/ KBGR AND KBHB ALSO BECOMING AFFECTED IN THE NEXT HR
OR SO. KFVE COULD REMAIN JUST N OF THIS DECK AND WILL JUST CARRY A
TEMPO COND FOR NOW. BY LATER THIS AM...EXPECT STRONG INSOLATION TO
MIX THESE CIGS OUT THO TUF TO SAY IF THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER NEAR THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PSBL FOG/STRATUS
LATER TNGT FOR OUR SRN TAF SITES...
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AT KBHB AND PERHAPS KBGR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG THRU TNGT. ATTM...AREA OF
STRATUS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS NB AND THE BAY OF FUNDY AND JUST
ENTERING OUR FAR NERN WATERS. IN THE NEAR TERM EXPECT JUST THIS
STRATUS W/ NO ISSUES FROM FOG BUT FOG CHCS APPEAR TO INCREASE LATER
TNGT/ERLY SUN SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG FOR LATER TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
326 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY ISSUE THRU THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY
SPREADING WWRD ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS ATTM... THE HRRR MDL SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND FCSTS THIS CLD COVER TO SPREAD WWRD
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM.
THEREAFTER...STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED TO MIX THESE CLDS OUT ALL
AREAS W/ SOME MINOR CONCERN AS TO HOW QUICK THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT SCTD SKIES MOST AREAS
BY 14-15Z. MOST RH PROGS THEN PUSH THIS MOISTURE JUST S AND SW OF
THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVE AT WHICH TIME IT IS ADVECTED NWRD ACROSS
OUR WRN COASTAL AREAS AND INTO OUR SWRN ZNS. WILL SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN CLDS ACROSS OUR SRN AND SWRN AREAS OVERNIGHT TNGT...
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CLOUDINESS TDY AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TDY AND TNGT SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT AS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM
LABRADOR...ACROSS OUR REGION AND DOWN THE E COAST CONTS TO PROVIDE
THE REGION W/ PLEASANT TEMPS/RH`S...MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVING
IN OFF THE OCEAN EARLY EACH MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DOWNEAST AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MID WEEK. EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE DRY AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT TRICKY, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT. THE
NEW 00Z GFS SAGS THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
IT OVER NORTHERN MAINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING IT THROUGH DOWNEAST BY THAT EVENING. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE TRIED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. ALSO, BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE FRONTAL PASSAGES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. IF THE NEW ECMWF IS CORRECT, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVERYONE WILL EASILY REACH
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LARGE AREA OF STRATUS W/ MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING OUR FAR ERN AREAS W/ KHUL MVFR FOR THE LAST HR OR
SO. THIS CLD DECK EXPECTED TO CONT TO SPREAD WWRD W/ KCAR/KPQI
EXPECTED TO GO MVFR AT ANY TIME. PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE CIGS...EXPECT CONT
WWRD SPREAD W/ KBGR AND KBHB ALSO BECOMING AFFECTED IN THE NEXT HR
OR SO. KFVE COULD REMAIN JUST N OF THIS DECK AND WILL JUST CARRY A
TEMPO COND FOR NOW. BY LATER THIS AM...EXPECT STRONG INSOLATION TO
MIX THESE CIGS OUT THO TUF TO SAY IF THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER NEAR THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PSBL FOG/STRATUS
LATER TNGT FOR OUR SRN TAF SITES...
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AT KBHB AND PERHAPS KBGR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG THRU TNGT. ATTM...AREA OF
STRATUS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS NB AND THE BAY OF FUNDY AND JUST
ENTERING OUR FAR NERN WATERS. IN THE NEAR TERM EXPECT JUST THIS
STRATUS W/ NO ISSUES FROM FOG BUT FOG CHCS APPEAR TO INCREASE LATER
TNGT/ERLY SUN SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG FOR LATER TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0110L: PESKY AREA OF STRATUS CONTS TO PUSH WWRD INTO OUR
FAR ERN AREAS INCLUDING KHUL ATTM... HAVE BEEFED UP CLD COVER
ACROSS ERN AREAS AND HAVE MOVED THIS CLD COVER FURTHER W - MORE IN
LINE W/ THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES...
930 PM UPDATE: WE ARE WATCHING THE WRN XTNT OF OCEAN LOW ST/SC
ADVCG TOWARD DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE NB/ME BORDER FROM
ERN NB SINCE SKY GRIDS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLDNSS TO SPILL INTO
ERN ZONES MSLY S OF NE AROOSTOOK BY DAYBREAK...NO SIG CHGS ATTM TO
FCST GRIDS. LOADED 9 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND MERGE THEM TO FCST
OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 5 AM.
600 PM UPDATE: SFC HI PRES FROM THE NE MARITIME PROVS OF CAN CONT
TO BRING CLR TO MCLR SKIES TO THE FA ERLY THIS EVE. ONLY CHG WAS
TO LOAD 5 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND MERGE THEM TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS
POSTED AT 5 AM. WE SHARPENED THE HRLY TEMP DROP OFF AFT SUNSET
BASED ON YSDY`S EVE TREND...WITH OF COURSE MILDER TEMPS BY 5 TO 7
DEG F DUE TO THE FALL OFF BEGINNING FROM WARMER HI TEMPS FROM LATE
THIS AFTN. REST OF NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS REMAIN THE SAME FROM
LAST UPDATE.
ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE CONTINUES WITH CUMULUS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON COUNTY.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. AN EASTERLY WIND
NEAR H925 IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH AN INCREASE IN H850 AND H925 MOISTURE...EXPECT A FEW MORE
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE FORECAST AREA THAN OBSERVED TODAY.
WITH A SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL CREEP INTO THE MID
70S FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY...ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND RESULTANT
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD AFFECT THE DOWNEAST COAST DURING
MOSTLY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS DURING THIS TIME WITH ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT EITHER LATER TUESDAY OR LATER WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT
THE FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD THEN PERSIST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 0110L: FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MVFR CIGS AT LEAST AT OUR ERN TAF SITES INTO
EARLY AM W/ THESE CONDS PSBLY REACHING KFVE AS WELL AS KBGR AND
KBHB...
PREV DISC: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR HUL AND BHB
EARLY SATURDAY AM BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LIFT.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD AFFECT THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED. WAVE HTS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR 2 FEET. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/VJN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY COMFY THIS EVE W/ TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE 60S...AND DEWPTS DN
INTO THE L/M50S. SKC OVR THE FA...THOUGH THERE IS PTNTL FOR
SC...ESP INVOF CST (ESP SE VA/NE NC) LT. NE WNDS STILL RMNG
GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH INVOF IMMEDIATE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY
55-60...EXCEPT 60-65 IN THE CSTL/FAR SE ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
MID ATLC REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENLY STAY
EASTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL...AND OTHER THAN FAIR WX CU (AND
SOME OCCNL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST) SKIES WILL AVG OUT MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVG W/ HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE LWR 80S WELL INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. NORTHEAST/ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME
LESS BREEZY EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT LATE SUN INTO
MON...WITHGFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW AND MSTR/CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADDED 20% POPS IN THE PIEDMONT FOR
MONDAY...AS BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT STILL STAYS OFF TO OUR N/W. HIGH
TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FOR MON...MAINLY 80-85.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TOWARD MID WEEK.
THE PESKY LOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON
FRIDAY AND BASED ON CONSENSUS BETWEEN HPC GUIDE AND 00Z MOS
GUIDE...INCLUDED SLGT CHC TSTMS ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTN TSTM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST
AT THIS POINT.
DID SOME BLENDING BETWEEN THE WARMER HPC GUIDE...COOLER MOS GUIDE
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
THIS SUMMER HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90
WELL INLAND TUESDAY INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID 90S WELL INLAND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TUESDAY MRNG WARM TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC OBS / SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PESKY SC ARND 2K FT SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...HAVE ADDED A FEW
HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS CLOUD DECK AT ORF/PHF/ECG. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. N-NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY (15-20 KTS) ACROSS
SERN COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA FOR SOUTHERN MOST PART OF CHES BAY THROUGH 4 AM BASED
ON LATEST OBS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THIS HEADLINE INTO SATURDAY BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL 4 AM PACKAGE TO DECIDE THAT.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LOWER BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND THE PORTION
OF THE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. THIS EXTENSION WAS MAINLY BASED ON THE RUC WIND FCST THAT
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR WINDS OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 5 FT OR HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCA CONTINUES IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.DISCUSSION...
TO SAY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACTIVE IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
A RISK FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING. STILL ANTICIPATING A SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE WE GET A BREAK IN
THE ACTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT COMES SURGING
BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THOSE TWO DAYS. BESIDE SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WITH
THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXISTING THOSE
DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY STRONG
UPPER JET /100-150 KTS/ SLAMMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIGHT NOW. BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
WORK EAST ACROSS MN INTO WI THIS AFTERNOON ON NOSE OF 40 KT LLJ
AND LEADING BLAST OF THETA-E ADVECTION. BACK FURTHER
WEST...STARTING TO SEE A NICE WARM FRONT TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
CLOUDS IN SW MN INTO NE SD...ALMOST RIGHT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
MLCAPES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN ERN SODAK HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 3000 J/KG. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND BACKING WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /NOW AROUND
50 KTS/ AND 0-1KM SHEAR /25-30 KTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/
INCREASING QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL
SIMILAR WITH INITIATING CONVECTION BY 22Z ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER
AROUND YELLOW MEDICINE/LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES...STORM TYPE WILL BE SUPER CELLULAR WITH A
GOOD RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
THROUGH ABOUT 0/1Z. WHAT IS MORE WORRISOME IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THESE STORMS INITIATE. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT HI-RES GUIDANCE YOU
LOOK AT...HRRR/NMM/ARW/MPX-WRF...THEY ALL CONGEAL THE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO A LINE AND SEND IT RACING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BIG WORRY HERE IS THAT PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE
COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO THIS
EVENING THAT THEN ROUGHLY FOLLOWS I-94 DOWN INTO THE TWIN CITES.
BY 6Z...THE RAP HAS MUCAPE OVER THE TWIN CITIES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG...DCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND MOST WORRISOME OF ALL...AN
H85 LLJ INCREASING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KTS ALL POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO. THE BIG HOPE IS THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED AIR /TEMPS IN RAIN HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S/ WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH ACROSS
ERN MN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CAN NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS
TO REACH THE SFC AND WE END UP WITH AN ELEVATED MCS. EITHER WAY
YOU SLICE IT...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT FOR THE MPX
AREA.
TONIGHT...MODELS DRIVE A FRONT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MONDAY NOW
LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY AND CUT POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR SE
CWA. LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT COMES SURGING BACK
NORTH...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MN MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY ON YET ANOTHER 50 KT
LLJ. THIS THEN LEADS US INTO WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS HERE IS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF NOW BEING LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWING FRONTAL PLACEMENT MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL BE
VERY WARM AND HUMID SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS LIKELY IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAY NOT
SEE MUCH ACTIVITY AS STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...WITH H7 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND +14C...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW MID
LEVEL TEMPS COOLING...WITH ALL SORTS OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF.
WORRY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THAT BESIDE ALL THE
INSTABILITY...AN IMPRESSIVE 70-90 KT SW MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE
SPLAYED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT TUES/WED...WHICH MEANS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS WILL BE HIGH...AND WITH PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES
/180 PERCENT OF NORMAL/...FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
MODELS FINALLY SHOWING WNW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY
THURSDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN FINALLY GETTING
KICKED OUT OF HERE. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THU/FRI...WHICH IS
DRY...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT/FRI...JUST AS THE ECWMF SLIDES A 1020 MB HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS UP SATURDAY WHEN
THE ECWMF/GFS SHOW A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING UP INTO THE MPX AREA
AS A SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS SODAK INTO IA. AS A RESULT...BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SAT NIGHT. LOOKING JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE...WITH
SIGNS OF A DECENT HEAT WAVE SHOWING UP FOR THE END OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING OVER NORTHEAST SODAK AND INTO WC MN AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MCS AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS MAINLY AFTER 03Z-04Z
THROUGH 09Z/10Z TO THE FAR EAST. CONTINUED WIND IN KMSP AND INTRODUCED
AT KRNH AND KSTC AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP
BEHIND SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF LOW END
MVFR CIG/BR OVER THE NORTHEAST AREA. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS EAST OVER THE AREA.
.KMSP...INITIAL THUNDER THREAT EXITING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WEST. THIS SHOULD WORK INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MN MAINLY AFTER 03Z AS MCS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND A
DEFINITE THREAT/ HELD ONTO THAT FOR NOW...AND SHOULD THIS WORK EAST
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS BEHIND MCS
BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY 18Z. WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF TSRA AFTER 06Z. WINDS SW 10KT
SHIFTING SE LATE.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25
KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 12 TO 17
KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/DE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1011 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED EVIDENT BY
THE CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN NE MO WHICH HAS BASICALLY FALLEN APART
OVER THE PAST HOUR. UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP IN
ALL AREAS BUT NE MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. ALSO UPDATED THE CLOUD GRIDS THIS EVENING WHILE TRYING TO TRACK
CIRRUS DEBRIS SHIELD REMNANTS FROM EARLIER CLUSTER. OTHER ASPECTS
OF THE FCST APPEAR ON TRACK ATTM.
MILLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
AND CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED INVOF A WEAKLY DEFINED
SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
GFS...NAM...AND HRRR MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH INITIATING
CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...THOUGH
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE TREND OF GRADUAL
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD.
THE RIDGE THAT WAS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED BY THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL
BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WINDS
WILL NOT DIE DOWN VERY MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
JP
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS WITH
DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 850-800MB. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE LIKELY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL
STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WE SHOULD EASILY HIT THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TUESDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF
MONDAY...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT LESS WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT MOVES OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND THE
EASTERN PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH THE GFS STALLING AND WASHING THE FRONT OUT ON
THE MO/IA BORDER THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TAKING
THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OR NORTHERN IOWA. BOTH MODELS KICK OUT SOME PRECIP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...BUT WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FELL
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF LLWS AT KUIN AND KCOU WHERE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 10Z. THE
MAGNITUDE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAFS...
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE LLWS AT THOSE SITES AT THIS TIME. MIXING WILL
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 14-15Z THAT
WILL DECREASE AROUND 00Z. THE SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WILL CAUSE SOME
CROSSWIND PROBLEMS FOR SMALLER AIRCRAFT ON NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED RUNWAYS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL 2000FT AGL WINDS FROM 230/35KTS AROUND 12Z...BUT DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LLWS AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AROUND 15Z FROM 190 WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME CROSSWINDS AND
POSSIBLE RUNWAY CHANGES.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED EVIDENT BY
THE CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN NE MO WHICH HAS BASICALLY FALLEN APART
OVER THE PAST HOUR. UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP IN
ALL AREAS BUT NE MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. ALSO UPDATED THE CLOUD GRIDS THIS EVENING WHILE TRYING TO TRACK
CIRRUS DEBRIS SHIELD REMNANTS FROM EARLIER CLUSTER. OTHER ASPECTS
OF THE FCST APPEAR ON TRACK ATTM.
MILLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
AND CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED INVOF A WEAKLY DEFINED
SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
GFS...NAM...AND HRRR MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH INITIATING
CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...THOUGH
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE TREND OF GRADUAL
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD.
THE RIDGE THAT WAS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED BY THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL
BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WINDS
WILL NOT DIE DOWN VERY MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
JP
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS WITH
DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 850-800MB. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE LIKELY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL
STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WE SHOULD EASILY HIT THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TUESDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF
MONDAY...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT LESS WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT MOVES OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND THE
EASTERN PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH THE GFS STALLING AND WASHING THE FRONT OUT ON
THE MO/IA BORDER THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TAKING
THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OR NORTHERN IOWA. BOTH MODELS KICK OUT SOME PRECIP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...BUT WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FELL
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
02Z...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF
THE TAFS INITIALLY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO
DECIDE IF ANY MENTION OF VC WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE TONIGHT...AND INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY MID MORNING MONDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE TERMINAL WILL LIKELY
MOVE OUT OF THE VC RANGE BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
THE NEXT 20-30 MINUTES TO DECIDE IF ANY MENTION WILL BE REQUIRED.
OTHERWISE DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME INCREASED CROSSWINDS BETWEEN 15-00Z.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
AND CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED INVOF A WEAKLY DEFINED
SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
GFS...NAM...AND HRRR MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH INITIATING
CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...THOUGH
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE TREND OF GRADUAL
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD.
THE RIDGE THAT WAS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED BY THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL
BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WINDS
WILL NOT DIE DOWN VERY MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
JP
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS WITH
DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 850-800MB. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE LIKELY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL
STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WE SHOULD EASILY HIT THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TUESDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF
MONDAY...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT LESS WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT MOVES OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND THE
EASTERN PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH THE GFS STALLING AND WASHING THE FRONT OUT ON
THE MO/IA BORDER THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TAKING
THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OR NORTHERN IOWA. BOTH MODELS KICK OUT SOME PRECIP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...BUT WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FELL
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
02Z...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF
THE TAFS INITIALLY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO
DECIDE IF ANY MENTION OF VC WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE TONIGHT...AND INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY MID MORNING MONDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE TERMINAL WILL LIKELY
MOVE OUT OF THE VC RANGE BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
THE NEXT 20-30 MINUTES TO DECIDE IF ANY MENTION WILL BE REQUIRED.
OTHERWISE DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME INCREASED CROSSWINDS BETWEEN 15-00Z.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
308 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN ISSUE IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. A MUCH DIFFERENT AIR MASS IS
IN PLACE TODAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH HEATING THUS FAR. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CU HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MO INTO ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THE CLEAR
AREA CURRENTLY WEST OF COLUMBIA MAY BE EXPERIENCING SOME SUBIDENCE
BEHIND AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE WHICH EMANATED FROM THE KS
MCS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SAME FEATURE MAY ALSO BE PROVIDING
SOME IMPETUS FOR SHALLOW VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN ST LOUIS AND
COLUMBIA WHERE SATELLITE INDICATES THE CU IS DEEPER AND RADAR HAS
SHOWN SOME PIN HEAD RETURNS. THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT RAMPS UP THRU THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE MCV CURRENTLY IN NE KS MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AND INTERACTS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK BUT VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH A PRIMARY WIND
THREAT. UPSCALE GROWTH FROM MERGING OUTFLOWS COULD RESULT IN ONE
OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS/CLUSTERS. I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE IDEA IN MIND THAT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MISSOURI WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION AND A WW THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT
HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
SUNDAY`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
MOVES TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF/SREF HAVE SOME EXTENT OF LINGERING
PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
REMAINING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING ALONG ALOFT DURING THE MORNING
AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4KM NCEP WRF LOOK
PRETTY DRY AFTER THE MCS LOSES STEAM LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE 4KM WRF
FIRES PRECIP DOWN OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THINK THE BEST I CAN DO IS CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY...UNSURE OF TIMING OR COVERAGE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ON THE
NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ON AN AREA OF DECENT 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE EVENING...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TO CHANCE IN THOSE AREAS.
CONTINUING HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP US STUCK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE DAY AND LOW TO MID 70S AT NIGHT. SHOULD FEEL LIKE
SUMMER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BREAKING DOWN AND A
FROPA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SHOULD BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE AIR MASS IS VERY
UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME AND EXTENSIVE CU HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. I DONT HAVE A
REAL GOOD FEEL ON THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OUT OF KS. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD IMPACTING WEST CENTRAL IL/KUIN...WHILE ALSO SINKING
SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND IMACTING CENTRAL MO/KCOU THIS EVENING.
I THINK THE PROBABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH OF TERMINAL IMPACTS AT KUIN
AND KCOU BUT COULD BE OFF ON TIMING PLUS OR MINUS A FEW HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVIAL. THE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FURTHER SOUTH IS LESS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GOOD ORGANIZATION AND A LARGE CLUSTER OR LINE
FORM THEN THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE ST LOUIS AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
THE PROB30 GROUP AT KSTL/KSUS/KCPS REFLECTS THIS LINE OF THOUGHT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT
THE MAIN ISSUE. THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENSIVE CU HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL ON THIS
SPOTTY ACTIVITY. IF THIS DEVELOPS BETTER IT MAY REQUIRE AN AMENDMENT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ADD VCTS OR TSRA. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...
THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z. SINCE THESE STORMS HAVE YET TO FORM IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE TIMING AND LONGEVITY. IF THEY DO MOVE SOUTH
AS ANTICIPATED...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVIAL.
GLASS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 72 88 73 95 / 60 40 30 5
QUINCY 68 87 70 93 / 70 30 30 5
COLUMBIA 69 89 70 93 / 70 40 20 5
JEFFERSON CITY 70 90 71 93 / 60 40 10 5
SALEM 71 86 71 92 / 50 50 20 5
FARMINGTON 70 88 68 91 / 40 40 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. ATMOSPHERE IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW
CLOSE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL COME TO MEETING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A STILL-DEEPENING 996MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL SD...IN RESPONSE TO A 110KT 300MB JET STREAK TRACKING
DUE EAST OUT OF MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW INTO NORTHWEST NEB...BUT STILL
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE
FALLS...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND THE 750MB ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A BREEZY/WINDY DAY HAS ENSUED...WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH/GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER. AS SUSPECTED IN THE EARLIER AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS
THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
MIXING. IN FACT...WITH DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S IN SOME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
OF 20 PERCENT IS BEING BREACHED IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT WITH ONLY KS
COUNTIES OFFICIALLY HAVING A FAVORABLE FUEL STATUS FOR LARGE FIRE
GROWTH...AND ANY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT LIKELY
TO ONLY AFFECT A SMALL AREA FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE...WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. TEMP WISE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF MAINLY
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD FALL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL SHOULD END UP WITH SOLID COVERAGE OF AT
LEAST LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MOST NEB COUNTIES...AND UPPER 90S IN MOST
OF KS ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY AREA. ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA REGION IS BY FAR THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST...WITH WEAKER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT ALL THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CWA. WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING
INTO THE 12-15C RANGE AS A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THIS SHOULD KEEP A STOUT CAP IN PLACE. A FEW
MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND 18Z NAM ATTEMPT TO BREAK OUT A FEW HIGH
BASED STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB AT SOME POINT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...BUT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGRATES EAST TOWARD THE IA/MN/NE/SD BORDER AREA
OVERNIGHT...A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA ALL NIGHT LONG...WITH BREEZES OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH REMAINING
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE NIGHT HOWEVER...SPEEDS WILL START TO SLACKEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPERATURES...STILL AIMING FOR MID 60S
FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW 70S EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE CENTRAL AREAS HOLD ABOVE THE 70-MARK AS
WELL.
TURNING TO THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES AS A STOUT CAP WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 13-16C
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MN
REGION...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...WIND TRENDS ARE A BIT
TRICKY THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKS AT LEAST PARTWAY INTO THE CWA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY USHERING IN A LIGHT WESTERLY/NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT THEN
THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS...WITH ALL AREAS BACK IN A LIGHT TO STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM START
AND VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE...A RATHER HOT DAY IS STILL
ADVERTISED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
DIDN/T CHANGE HIGH TEMPS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL
CALLING FOR A RANGE FROM MID 90S FAR NORTH...UPPER 90S ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR...AND 100-105 ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...WITHIN MANY OF THESE HOTTEST
COUNTIES...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PER MET GUIDANCE/RAW NAM SUGGESTION. AS A
RESULT...FORECAST APPARENT TEMPERATURES TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE
100-104 RANGE...WHICH IS JUST BARELY BELOW CRITERIA FOR HEAT
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE VERY CLOSE. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN HWO MENTION OF NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
NO ACTUAL HEADLINE SEEMS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. ALONG THESE SAME
LINES...DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CRASHING INTO THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SEVERAL WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH NEEDED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE...SO NO FIRE
HEADLINES PLANNED.
LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
CONTINUE TO BE HEAT EARLY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID
WEEK...AND THEN MORE HEAT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL VERY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING...IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
BY WED EVENING WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AT
THAT TIME AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD BE A WARM FRONT DRAPED
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THIS IS SLATED
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM SW TO
NE NEBRASKA. ON TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO APPROACH
THE CWA...EXTENDING FROM VTN TO LBF BY 12Z...AND FROM FULLERTON TO
CAMBRIDGE BY 00Z. QUESTION HERE IS HOW LONG WILL WE REMAIN CAPPED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT PROGGED 700 MB TEMPS IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL IN THE NW WHETHER CONVECTION CAN INITIATE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME WED THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. BY 06Z THE
NE/SW ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD BE ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA...AND
EXPECT IT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MODEL GENERATED QPF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WILL FALL. THE NAM AND THE GFS BOTH SHOW THE RAIN STARTING
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT THE NAM HAS THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR CWA ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT. LATEST GFS
CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MORE ACROSS OUR CWA. IT ALSO SHOWS THE MID
LEVEL FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
OLD EC SHOWED MORE OF A NORTHERN SOLUTION AND WILL TAKE A LATE LOOK
AT THE 12Z RUN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL. CHECKING OTHER
MODELS...BOTH THE SREF AND GEM SUPPORT A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
WHILE THE UKMET MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION.
WED AND THU STILL SHOWING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AS LATEST GFS
NOW BRINGS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE OLD EC AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOT SHOWING THIS AT ALL. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS
AND WHILE IT MAY NOT BE TOTALLY DRY ON THURSDAY...BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVE THE HIGH DEWPOINT BIAS AS OF LATE
CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE POSSIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STARTING IN THE NW PART OF THE CWA TUESDAY LATE AFTN/EVE AS MUCAPE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BOTH RESPECTABLE VIA THE EC. SHEAR MUCH LESS IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. BY WED LATE AFTERNOON BEST SEVERE
PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO OLD EC RUN BUT A
LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING COULD PUT PART OF OUR CWA IN THE PICTURE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS BOTH SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN A STOUT RIDGE BY THEN. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE IF WE
END UP WITH A FEW RIDGE RUNNERS AROUND THE RING OF FIRE THAT CLIP A
PART OF OUR AREA. THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME...BUT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
THIS TYPE OF JULY PATTERN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...STEADY SOUTH BREEZES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 15 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH
GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 26KT. THERE COULD BE BIT OF A LULL IN
THESE GUSTS DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT DEPICTED THIS FOR
NOW. OVERNIGHT...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...AS SOUTHERLY SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT BETWEEN
1500-2000 FT AGL. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT FOR NOW AS DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND THE SPEED DIFFERENCE IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL FOR A FORMAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION. LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL
DECREASE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS A BIT...AND START TURNING THEM MORE
WESTERLY. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE MAY TAKE HOLD BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER SHIFTS TO ADD THIS WIND SHIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF FORECAST.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST
SOUTH OF KEARNEY. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRACK IS ESTIMATED TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD EASILY PASS OVER THE TAF SITE OR JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO COVER
THESE CHANCES WITH TEMPOS AND PROB 30 GROUPS AS SHOWERS COULD
FIZZLE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TAF SITE. EXPECTING LOWERED CEILINGS
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
UPDATE...RECENTLY COMPLETED AN UPDATE ADDRESSING ONLY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY 60
PERCENT TERRITORY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE LINEAR COMPLEX PUSHING EAST OUT OF
NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AT LEAST
SOME DEGREE PER THE LATEST HRRR AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING EAST INTO
A MODEST BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. BESIDES...KGLD RADAR
IS ALREADY SHOWING HINTS OF A SMALL MCV FORMING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS LINE...WHICH THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO ALSO LATCH ONTO AND
KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT PASSES EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
MEANWHILE...AS I TYPE THIS...BRAND NEW ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FLARE UP CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS THE PHELPS COUNTY
AREA...SEEMINGLY TIED TO THETA-E ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY EVIDENT
MOISTURE GRADIENT/CONVERGENT ZONE AT THE 700MB LEVEL. WITH
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MASS CONVERGENCE IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL THROUGH THE NIGHT...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY FROM ANY PART OF THE CWA...AND OTHER THAN RAISING THE
SOUTHWEST TO LIKELIES...KEPT THE REST OF THE CWA IN AT LEAST 40-50
POPS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS...COULD SEE A FEW AT LEAST GET CLOSE...EITHER FROM 50-ISH
MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...OR
FROM HAIL POTENTIAL FROM MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD. VERY WEAK BULK SHEAR OF 20KT OR LESS WILL DEFINITELY BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH SOMETHING BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE DEPENDING ON THE LIFTED
LAYER...SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE. OBVIOUSLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION...BUT WOULD RATHER SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL
POCKETS OF 3+ INCH AMOUNTS AS SEEN THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPS/DEWPOINT/SKY COVER/WIND...AND WILL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT
TO REVISIT THE TRICKY THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE REGION CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MESSY PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
THE SRN CONUS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF
THE SWRN US COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
THINGS ARENT MUCH BETTER AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH OVERALL HIGHER
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO OUR SW FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE
IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTING WEST FROM THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST.
SAW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ONCE THOSE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...THINGS HAVE BEEN QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SEEING A
LITTLE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA...SO WILL
KEEP LOW POPS GOING THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
MAKE SOME NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...MAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ACTUALLY
HAVE MOST OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CHANCES LATER ON ACROSS THE
CWA ARE TIED TO THAT ACTIVITY SHIFTING WEST. 12Z MODEL RUNS WERENT
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...MAINLY COMING POST 06Z.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...THERE ARE SOME MODEL VARIATIONS ON
HOW MUCH/HOW FAR EAST IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP STRONG THUNDERSTORM MENTION GOING IN THE
HWO...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY...WITH A FEW MORE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ONTO/THROUGH THE
PLAINS...DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST SHIFTING INTO NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THIS
TIMING COULD BE AFFECTING BY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY
THIS EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. MODELS DEPICT THE FRONT ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 00Z. RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY...IN
THE N/NE DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STAYED JUST BELOW LIKELY POPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED BY
MODELS LIKE THE 4KM WRF...WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE GOING ON. COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DID LOWER HIGHS A TOUCH...PRIMARILY
IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AM CONCERNED IT WONT BE ENOUGH IF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS PAN OUT. CURRENTLY FORECASTING NEAR
80 IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
HOT WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR KANSAS ZONES PRIMARILY IN THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AND RACES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT
VERY CAPPED AND CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL BE CALLING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A GOOD JUMP UPWARD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SOME KANSAS ZONES MAY
NEAR 100.
MONDAY...CONTINUED HOT WITH 700MB CAP STILL IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP US DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES TO AROUND 100 OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.
TUESDAY...AM CURRENTLY CALLING FOR 90S BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
MODELS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THESE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TUESDAY EQUALLY AS HOT AS MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
FALL BACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH BY THIS TIME AND MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
731 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REGAINS CONTROL LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOT
WEATHER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 535 PM...AREA RADARS SHOW THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WEAKENING A LITTLE BIT BUT
STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE NOW RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY ASHTABULA TO BETWEEN LONDON
AND HAMILTON ONTARIO. ASSUMING THIS ACTIVITY MANAGES TO HOLD
TOGETHER...ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING THE ACTIVITY INTO
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AFTER 7 PM...AND EXTREME FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY AROUND 9 PM.
MEANWHILE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING A SECOND
AND MUCH NARROWER LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG A
REGION OF VERY SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOW SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT INTO LAKE ONTARIO OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY CLIPPING PART OF MONROE
COUNTY IN THE PROCESS. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY HELP TO TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP IT IN LINE WITH THESE EXPECTED
TRENDS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A FASTER ARRIVAL OF LOWER-END
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE ASIDE TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING. THE FULL
MID AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIVE A SHORTWAVE
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG MOST RUNS THE RGEM/NAM12/GFS/HRRR THAT
THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...CROSSING THE
NY/PA LINE BETWEEN 600 PM AND 800 PM...THEN REACHING BUFFALO AND
VICINITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES ROCHESTER LATE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND GIVEN GENERAL SUPPORT OF OTHER
MODELS...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
SMOOTHED HRRR FORECAST OF THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO SLOW MOVING CELLS.
WHILE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME SHOWERS WHICH BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG A LAKE-BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE
LAKE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS DEVELOPING IS LOWER...AND WOULD
TEND TO IMPACT OFFSHORE AND ONTARIO PROVINCE ANYWAYS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AS MODEL CAPES REMAIN 500 J/KG OR LOWER...AND ONLY MODEST WIND SHEAR
AS WINDS ABOVE 700MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KTS. THIS WEAK
FLOW COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.50 INCHES...AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IS STILL
RELATIVELY SMALL...HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE HWO
FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AS WIND AND CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN WARM TO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR
MONDAY...WITH A PRIMARILY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM (HOT) AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL THAT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EAST OF
THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE. AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE EAST COAST HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE PLAIN MAY NOT GET MUCH BELOW 70F...WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA SEES TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEEPENING NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL CAUSE
THE RIDGE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND EXPAND NORTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES. SINCE THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA...WE WILL LOOK TO THE
MIDWEST FOR OUR UPCOMING SPELL OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THE INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL WARMING (H7 OF
10C) TO PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH LOWER 90S LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN.
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE WILL BRING SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO AREAS LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PA AND NEW
YORK STATE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...HAZE AND PATCHY
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER PA AND NEW YORK.
H85 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 20C WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE 90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES
AND ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
READINGS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 95
TO 100 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWO).
SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE LONG ADVERTISED
SPELL OF MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE SETS UP ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PROCESS
WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NOTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WHILE THE
PASSING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT WILL
INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN KBUF AND ROC WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH 02Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A CB TO DEVELOP
IN THE VCNTY OF THE KROC TERMINAL BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS OHIO WILL ERODE AS IT WORKS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ROC/ART...BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME ISSUES AT BUF/IAG/JHW.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT BUF/IAG/JHW...BUT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING DENSE FROM DEVELOPING. THERE COULD IFR/MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE PASSAGE OF A 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL SHEAR AT SOME SITES. THIS IS
MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT ALL SITES...WITH ART THE ONLY
LOCATION TO MEET CRITERIA THOUGH OTHER SITES WILL BE CLOSE.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH LIFTING CIGS...AND
LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPIER WATERS...THOUGH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 15 KTS OR
LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND VERY WARM TO HOT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STRENGTHENS ATOP THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED CRNT FCST TO CAPTURE CRNT
TEMP/DWPT TRENDS. ALSO...VIS SATL PIC SHOWS SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE SLV WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE CPV
ATTM. HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS TREND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACRS
OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASED HRLY TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED
ON CRNT OBS. HAVE KEPT NORTHERN DACKS/SLV DRY...BUT WL CONT TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACRS THE TRRN BTWN
20Z-00Z THIS AFTN. LATEST NAM12 AND RAP HINT AT POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK S/W RIDING ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE
AND SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CAP AND DEEP DRY LAYER WL
LIMIT OVERALL THREAT AND WL KEEP OUT OF FCST WITH CRNT UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS WL RANGE FROM THE U70S TO L80S MOST LOCATIONS.
QUIET WEATHER AGAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM. WARMEST READINGS (80-85) TO
OCCUR FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES
(75 TO 80) EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT WHERE 500M AGL BACK
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST A MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS ORIGINATING OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.
MODELS INSIST ON CONTINUING THREAT OF AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NRN NY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND WHILE I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY...I`LL STILL OFFER A
GENERALLY DRY FORECAST GIVEN MODEL OVERESTIMATION OF SFC DEWPOINTS
AND RESULTANT BL INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...IDEA OF DAMPENING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OTTAWA/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS STILL LOOKS GOOD. COULD SEE
A FEW/ISOLD SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM OR TWO ACROSS NRN NY DURING
THESE PERIODS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...BUT
MOST AREAS AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY`S VALUES...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN TO
TREND MILDER UNDER CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS
+20C TO +24C AIR AT 925 MILLIBARS BECOMES COMMON. THUS LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CAPPING LAYER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
EXIST COUPLED WITH SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT. WITH LIMITED
FORCING AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON TUESDAY AND JUST A
BIT MORE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THIS WOULD BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THIS
THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS COMMENCED ON AREA
WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING
GUSTY BY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CLR/SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS SOUTHERLY MAINLY 5 TO 10 KTS
TODAY THOUGH LOCALLY NEAR 15 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING ON
THE BROAD LAKE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE AND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY. WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT TODAY...THEN 1 TO 2 FEET
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND LOCALLY TO 3 FEET WITH A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AT THE KVSF
(SPRINGFIELD VT) ASOS ARE KEEPING OBSERVATIONS FROM BEING
TRANSMITTED. FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/BOYD
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1003 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SUNDAY...
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH/TN
VALLY REGIONS. THE MAIN S/W TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ARE DWINDLING IN COVERAGE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW RIDGING ALOFT HANGING ON ACROSS THE
AREA.... WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS AND LACK OF OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL LOWER
POPS... ONLY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (AS SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
REMOTE POSSIBLY OF A SHOWER OR TWO THERE). HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT S/W`S NOTED ON THE NAM... GFS AND RUC ON THE 1.5 PVU
SURFACE AND MODELS NOT SHOWING EVEN MUCH/IF ANY MUCAPE.... THINK
THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE. STILL EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM
GENERALLY THE UPPER 50S EAST TO THE LOWER 60S WEST (GIVEN MORE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST)... WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MID 50S IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST (WHERE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE THE LEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...
AS THE MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT RUN INTO A DRIER AIR MASS FURTHER TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORTICITY ON
THE 1.5PVU SURFACE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR MINIMAL
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH SOME...AND TOWARD KRWI ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE
MODEST UNDER WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AT OR LESS THAN 20KT...WITH MLCAPE IN
THE LOWEST KILOMETER AROUND 500J/KG BY 21Z. LIFTED INDICES FALL TO
AS MUCH AS -3C OR -4C...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND BASED ON THE THERMAL WIND PROFILE
FOLLOWING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESSES...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
WETTER GFS AND THE DRIER NAM...MORE TOWARD THE COMPROMISE SREF...TO
FORECAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1 WITH
HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CHANCES TOWARD KINT.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO GOLDSBORO FOR LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING
EAST...OR POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER 1.5PVU MODEST VORTICITY MAXIMUM. ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...THE LATTER 6C/KM TO 6.25C/KM...
PLUS WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM
RELATIVELY LOW...NOT COMPLETELY NON-ZERO TOWARD THE TRIAD...BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO AVOID MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW. HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...AT OR A DEGREE
COOL MONDAY EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...WHERE THE HIGHEST
THICKNESSES AND POSSIBLY THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SUN RELATIVE TO THE
REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED. FORECAST LOWS AT OR A
DEGREE WARM MONDAY NIGHT UNDER A MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS
AND SOME SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE PATTERN QUITE STATIC DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CHANGES ALOFT HOWEVER AS WINDS
SHIFT TOWARD EAST AND THE AIR MASS ABOVE 12000 FEET DRYS WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES SUMMER TIME WEAK
AND SURFACE TRIGGERS OTHER THAN AFTERNOON HEATING APPEAR ABSENT.
POTENTIAL ENERGY LOW AND CAN SEE NO MORE THAN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
WITH DRYING ALOFT... RAIN CHANCES UNDER TEN PERCENT... PERHAPS
CLOSE TO ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AROUND 90. TUESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR 67. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY AND MINIMALLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES... HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MOSTLY LOWER 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES 66 TO 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES IS ZONAL THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARD NORTHWEST AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE ROCKIES AND
BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. THE QUESTION WILL BE... HOW
WARM? 850 MILLIBAR PRESSURE SURFACES FALL A BIT THURSDAY BEFORE
LEVELING OFF. SURFACE HEAT WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG
LESS SIDE OR OTHER TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE BECOMES. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PROMISING SUCH TROUGHING (WITH POTENTIAL MID TO UPPER 90S) FOR
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE DAY SIX OR SEVEN FORECAST... YET IT AS OF YET
REMAINS UNVERIFIED. SEE NO REASON TO TRUST MODELS NOW... AND WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NO HIGHER THAN 89 TO 94. LOW TEMPERATURES
66 TO 71.
CURRENT TIMING ON A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCE WOULD PLACE THE BEST RAIN CHANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MINIMAL PUSH WITH THIS TROUGH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. WINDS ALOFT MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST AND WEAK WITH NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF FOR CONVECTION. THUS OTHER THAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES LESS THAN TEN PERCENT... WITH
AROUND 25 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH... 20 PERCENT SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING..WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
DISTURBANCE...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND KINT LATE
TONIGHT AFTER 08Z. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH EASTERN
EXTENT AND MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS KRDU.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC...BUT THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT KGSO AND KINT AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FRIDAY. WITHOUT A LOT OF
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...PERIODS OF AT LEAST LATE NIGHT MVFR FOG...AND HAZE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS... SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/DJF
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DJF/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM JUST OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX AND WINDS TO COME DOWN. THEREFORE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM AROUND THE HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. HRRR SHOWS A NICE
DEPICTION OF THIS MOISTURE IN TERMS OF CU DEVELOPMENT. VALUES OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH INLAND WHERE CLEAR SKIES EXIST UP TO .75
INCHES IN PATCHES WHERE CU DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEA
BREEZE PUSHED JUST FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO KEEP TIP OF CAPE FEAR
CLEAR OF ANY CLOUDS. SOUNDING DATA AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LOCKED IN BELOW INVERSION JUST UNDER 7K FT
DRYING OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS PCP WATER DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OVER AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE CU DISSIPATE BY
EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MORNING.
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE MORE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH TEMPS DOWN BELOW 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR IN THIS PERIOD
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. WITH LIGHT
WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WE WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MIDDLE JUNE BOTH MON/TUE AT DAYBREAK...MAINLY LOW AND
MIDDLE 60S.
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT IS EVIDENT IN RH TIME-HEIGHT
PLOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 500 MB. CONCURRENTLY WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME FORM OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WELL INLAND TO GIVE US
A CRACK AT A BRIEF SHOWER OVER OUR NW ZONES 3PM-6PM MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
RIDGING CREATES SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST ON TUESDAY...AND ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...A DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL INHIBIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. 500MB RIDGE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WED-FRI ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL TRY TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS...BUT RECOGNIZE THAT STRONG RIDGES
TEND TO DELAY COLD FRONTS SO CURRENT PROGS MAY BE TOO FAST TO BRING
THROUGH FRONT SATURDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND WILL BUMP POP TO SCHC...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST 7 DAYS OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO BEFORE RISING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 18-20C BY FRIDAY...BUT
EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INHIBIT US FROM REALIZING THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THIS WARMTH ALOFT UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW THROUGH THE COLUMN...AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WED-SAT...LOW 90S MOST
PLACES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. MINS AT NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S WED NIGHT...AND AROUND 70 THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF CYCLE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES 3.5K TO 5K FT THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WILL BACK DOWN TO AROUND
5 KT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... A CUTOFF LOW CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS WILL
MEANDER AROUND BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO LOCAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX FURTHER AND EXPECT SEAS TO RESPOND BY
SUBSIDING THROUGH SUN MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOWING SEAS UNDER 6 FT
IN LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
DISCONTINUED WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS
BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN FROM AROUND 5 FT IN
OUTER WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MORNING ACROSS MOST WATERS. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN A MIX OF NE SWELL WITH NEARLY A 9 SEC PERIOD AND
LOCALLY WIND DRIVEN SHORTER PERIOD SWELL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MARK A
TRANSITION IN WIND DIRECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY OVER
LAND...SLIPS OFFSHORE AND BRINGS WINDS AROUND WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION HASTENS THE TRANSITION...S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EASING TO S-SW 5 KT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SOUTH
WINDS MONDAY AS THE HIGH HOLDS JUST OFFSHORE OF OUR COAST.
WAVE DIRECTION BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HOLD FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WAVE HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME NEAR SHORE CHOPPINESS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCES WIND SPEEDS SEVERAL KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM CREATES LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING SE SWELL.
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
HAVE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH ONLY MINOR TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS TO SE OR SW. SINCE THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THE WAVE
SPECTRUM WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SWELL DOMINATED. A 2FT/8SEC E/SE
SWELL WILL START THE PERIOD...BUILDING TO A 3FT/8SEC SE SWELL AS
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL BE ONLY 1-2
FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUILDING TO 2-3 FT LATE THURSDAY DUE TO
THE INCREASED SWELL AMPLITUDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. UNUSUALLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE NEXT WEEK...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS
TO COME DOWN. THEREFORE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LET UP
SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM AROUND THE HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. HRRR SHOWS A NICE
DEPICTION OF THIS MOISTURE IN TERMS OF CU DEVELOPMENT. VALUES OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH INLAND WHERE CLEAR SKIES EXIST UP TO .75
INCHES IN PATCHES WHERE CU DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEA
BREEZE PUSHED JUST FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO KEEP TIP OF CAPE FEAR
CLEAR OF ANY CLOUDS. SOUNDING DATA AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LOCKED IN BELOW INVERSION JUST UNDER 7K FT
DRYING OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS PCP WATER DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OVER AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE CU DISSIPATE BY
EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MORNING.
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE MORE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH TEMPS DOWN BELOW 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BLOCKING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SUN STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST MON AS 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STARTS TO EXPAND EAST. SUN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT WITH
FLAT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW UNDER DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS IN COOL/MOIST ATLANTIC AIR. WHILE THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE PRESENT THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BEGINS MON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME THE 5H RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND EAST AND
THE CUTOFF WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NORTHWEST WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...A PRODUCT OF THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE EXPANDING 5H RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO MON/MON NIGHT...BUT
TRENDING CLOSER TO CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD. ON TUE THE REMNANTS OF A SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE AREA BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK NATURE OF THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
ITS IMPACT CONFINED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY END UP BEING ENOUGH
TO SUPPRESS DEEPER CONVECTION. THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO TUE
AFTERNOON BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT WARRANT A MENTIONABLE POP. THE
SHORTWAVE LEFTOVERS MORE OR LESS DISSOLVE AS 5H RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TUE NIGHT. 5H RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM WED ON KEEPING THINGS DRY. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MID JUNE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...UPPER 80S TO LOWERS 90S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. EXPECT CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES 3.5K TO 5K FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT FLO/LBT...WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WILL BACK DOWN TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT AROUND SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE EVENING.
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY BUT INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY... A CUTOFF LOW CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS WILL
MEANDER AROUND BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO LOCAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX FURTHER AND EXPECT SEAS TO RESPOND BY
SUBSIDING THROUGH SUN MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOWING SEAS UNDER 6 FT
IN LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
DISCONTINUED WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS
BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN FROM AROUND 5 FT IN
OUTER WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MORNING ACROSS MOST WATERS. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN A MIX OF NE SWELL WITH NEARLY A 9 SEC PERIOD AND
LOCALLY WIND DRIVEN SHORTER PERIOD SWELL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA. RELAXED GRADIENT SUN NIGHT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW AS WEAK LAND BREEZE SETS UP. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OVERHEAD LATE SUN NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MON WITH LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SUN WHEN WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KT AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT SUN SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY MON
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BASICALLY OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL KEEP SURFACE GRADIENT ILL DEFINED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...10 KT OR LESS...WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BOTH DAYS. SEAS 2
FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
821 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION. MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE PROPAGATING ESE CLOSE TO EXITING
SE FA. HOWEVER BEGINNING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET.
ALSO CONVECTION PROPAGATING EAST ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH
AND EAST OF MOT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
AND WIND AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
WATCH. WILL BE MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BUT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST WILL LIKELY HOLD. WILL HOLD A BIT BEFORE ISSUING UPDATE
IN CASE OF WATCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...SEVERE EPISODE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IS INCREASING. THE SOUTHERN FA WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH TO THE
WEST. MLCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2000 J/KG INTO THE SOUTHERN FA BY 00Z.
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH...CURRENTLY (20Z)
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE
MAY BE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20Z-00Z...ONE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SFC TROUGH INTERSECT.
16Z HRRR SHOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. SPC
HAS A MODERATE RISK AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS...WITH HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL
HELICITY BUT STRONG MID- LEVEL WINDS...MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT 850MB MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH...ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB COMPUTED CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG BY 03Z
ACROSS THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS FORCING FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
OF STRONG 250MB JET INTERSECTS THIS AREA TO THE NORTH...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE...LIKELY AFTER
00Z. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...ATTEMPTED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD IN AREAS WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND THE NORTHERN FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...AN ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG
CYCLONES FOR THE SUMMER SEASON IN THE PLAINS APPEARS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...LATE
IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.
A GRADUAL EASTERLY SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.
AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM THREAT NOT OVER FOR GOOD PART OF FORECAST
AREA. CIGS CURRENTLY VFR BUT COULD SEE SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1004 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL OHIO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. A STRONG HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA
AS OF 02Z...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR STILL WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOL-SCT POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LESS WITH ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TRIED TO TIME IT ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY GETTING OUT OF NW PA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HRRR DID WELL TIMING THIS INTO THE CLE METRO AREA
AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THAT TO TIME IT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL GET A LITTLE PUSH NORTH MONDAY AND
HAVE CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/TS. IT WILL BE
WARMER AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. RIDGE REALLY BUILDS FOR MID WEEK AND
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL BE
UP TOO...SO IT WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT BREAKING DOWN MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND BY THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A ZONAL FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TO OUR
NORTH AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GLFMX MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CLOSED OFF BY
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SO SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...SIDING MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SATURDAY MODELS
REDEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH A
NORTHWEST GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST. BOTH MODELS HINTING AT CONVECTION/SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SATURDAY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AS BY THEN THE VERY WARM AIR RETURNS
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NE OHIO
AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL GO WITH A
MENTION OF THUNDER AT KYNG AND SHOWERS WHERE NEEDED. BRIEF
CLEARING COULD OCCUR IN THE EAST BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY IFR FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH CIGS POSSIBLY DIPPING TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AT
KMFD...KCAK AND KYNG AROUND DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE
AFTER DAYBREAK. IN THE WEST WHERE IT WILL DRY OUT MORE...WILL KEEP
CIGS MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OF LESS MOST PLACES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ABE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL OHIO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. A STRONG HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH NW OHIO
THIS EVENING. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING EAST
OF I-71 AS OF 2230Z BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00-02Z. THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST WORDING...JUST SOME TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS IN GRIDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
TRIED TO TIME IT ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY GETTING OUT OF NW PA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HRRR DID WELL TIMING THIS INTO THE CLE METRO AREA
AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THAT TO TIME IT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL GET A LITTLE PUSH NORTH MONDAY AND
HAVE CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/TS. IT WILL BE
WARMER AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. RIDGE REALLY BUILDS FOR MID WEEK AND
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL BE
UP TOO...SO IT WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT BREAKING DOWN MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND BY THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A ZONAL FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TO OUR
NORTH AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GLFMX MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CLOSED OFF BY
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SO SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...SIDING MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SATURDAY MODELS
REDEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH A
NORTHWEST GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST. BOTH MODELS HINTING AT CONVECTION/SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SATURDAY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AS BY THEN THE VERY WARM AIR RETURNS
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NE OHIO
AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL GO WITH A
MENTION OF THUNDER AT KYNG AND SHOWERS WHERE NEEDED. BRIEF
CLEARING COULD OCCUR IN THE EAST BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY IFR FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH CIGS POSSIBLY DIPPING TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AT
KMFD...KCAK AND KYNG AROUND DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE
AFTER DAYBREAK. IN THE WEST WHERE IT WILL DRY OUT MORE...WILL KEEP
CIGS MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OF LESS MOST PLACES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ABE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
627 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFINE POPS A BIT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
FOR FAR NW OH. RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHRA/TS OVER INDIANA
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT MEANWHILE SOME NEW ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LINE. INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS TOWARD
00Z...BUT WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING MENTIONS ANY
SHRA/TS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS DO IN FACT INCREASE TO HIGHER
CHANCES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THERE. LOOKING AT WV AND SATELLITE LOOKS
LIKE THE BIGGER FACTOR FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION WITH THE
SFC COLD FRONT WHILE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
EASTERN COUNTIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD FREE AND STABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. TO THE WEST HOWEVER MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED A BIT AND LI`S ARE AROUND -3 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S. AIRMASS IS MORE MOIST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SWRN OHIO. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...(AS WELL AS POINTS WEST) WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS
APPROACHING FDY AND TOL. AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO NWRN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR NWRN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT WAVE AND FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE. BY
MORNING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE REACHED INTO NWRN
OHIO SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FAR NORTHWEST...AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK FINE WITH LOWER 60S EAST
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE DAY WITH
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS ALL COUNTIES. TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR THE MORNING WEST
AND AFTERNOON EAST BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION AND PROGGED MOISTURE.
BY 00Z MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
A CHANCE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT EAST HALF BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN LACK OF FORCING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AFTERNOON CAPES BOTH DAYS APPROACH 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM12
THINKING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
BUT WILL KEEP DRY TUESDAY. TEMPS NEAR 90 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...TSRA MOVING INTO NW OH AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOCAL. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER SHOULD REACH CLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE DOUBTS IN MY MIND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION
WILL MOVE BEFORE IT FALLS APART SUNDAY MORNING...SO FOR TAFS JUST PUT
VCSH FROM CLE EAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FROM CLE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY THEN
VEER A LITTLE MORE TOWARD SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EASTERN COUNTIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD FREE AND STABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. TO THE WEST HOWEVER MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED A BIT AND LI`S ARE AROUND -3 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S. AIRMASS IS MORE MOIST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SWRN OHIO. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...(AS WELL AS POINTS WEST) WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS
APPROACHING FDY AND TOL. AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO NWRN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR NWRN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT WAVE AND FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE. BY
MORNING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE REACHED INTO NWRN
OHIO SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FAR NORTHWEST...AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK FINE WITH LOWER 60S EAST
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE DAY WITH
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS ALL COUNTIES. TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR THE MORNING WEST
AND AFTERNOON EAST BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION AND PROGGED MOISTURE.
BY 00Z MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
A CHANCE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT EAST HALF BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN LACK OF FORCING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AFTERNOON CAPES BOTH DAYS APPROACH 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM12
THINKING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
BUT WILL KEEP DRY TUESDAY. TEMPS NEAR 90 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...TSRA MOVING INTO NW OH AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOCAL. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER SHOULD REACH CLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE DOUBTS IN MY MIND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION
WILL MOVE BEFORE IT FALLS APART SUNDAY MORNING...SO FOR TAFS JUST PUT
VCSH FROM CLE EAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FROM CLE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY THEN
VEER A LITTLE MORE TOWARD SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
927 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
MID- WEEK...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE COMMONWEALTH.
THE HOT RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MUCH HIGHER DEEP LAYER PW ARRIVING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PA...
WEST OF SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS HOLDING TOUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF
PENNSYYLVANIA THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE EAST...A FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE EVENING HAS BEEN HAD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S. WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES... SFC DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE HIGHER PW ENVIRONMENT (1.5 TO 1.9") WHICH ARE SUPPORTING 2
MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ONE
EXTENDING N-S ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND THE
OTHER OVER EASTERN OHIO/FAR WRN PA. BOTH ARE SLOWLY BEING NUDGED
EASTWARD AS UPPER SHEAR AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD
REACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST PAST MIDNIGHT...THANKS TO
A STRIPE OF 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD
SHIFTING MOIST AXIS. DESPITE HIGH PWATS...MID- UPPER FORCING IS
STILL WEAK SO QPF AMTS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS VIA SLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MINS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HI PWAT AXIS ASSOCD WITH DISSIPATING FRONT/850MB LLVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD EARLY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LKLY MOVG INTO THE
SUSQ VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ERODE THRU THE DAY GIVEN HI DEWPTS AND CONTINUED MOIST SLY LLVL
FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THRU THE PD AS SUMMERTIME RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OH VLY. WITH RATHER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...SHOWER
CVRG SHOULD BECOME ISOLD-SCT AT BEST AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO
20-30 PCT FROM TOMORROW AFTN THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. MAV/MET/ECM
BLEND SUGGESTS HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70F E OF THE
MTNS...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
U.S. WITH CENTER OF HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SW FLOW IN
LOW LEVELS...TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND NOT QUITE AT HOT IN THE EAST.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH WED...BRINGING THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. SFC TEMPS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AREAWIDE AS MID LEVEL TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C WITH +18-20C AT 850MB
WILL SUPPRESS CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THU WILL REMAIN HOT FOR MOST...POSS EVEN HOTTER THAN WED IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY /WHERE MID 90S ARE LIKELY/. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP NW MTNS IN THE MID 80S...WHICH
IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS OUR UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER TROF. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS
TOUGH...AND HEDGED LOW POPS TOWARD DAYTIME DIURNAL MAX PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND NAMPARA MDL DATA. EXPECT FURTHER
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS TROF MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA.
A SURGE OF HIGHER HUMIDITY ACCOMPANYING THIS TROF WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA MAY
LINGER UNTIL EARLY AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AS TROF
SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING FROM STRONG MID JUNE SUN
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LOW LVL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z. A FEW PM TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVR THE W MTNS...POTENTIALLY CAUSING A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT
BFD/JST LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSS. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
808 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THE HOT RIDGE WILL
BREAKDOWN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FM
CENTRAL OH SWD INTO KY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO WRN PA THIS EVE. MESO
MDL DATA KEEPS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES
PRIOR TO 00Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST...TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY
APPROACH THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS BTWN 00-03Z. A STRIPE OF 850MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD SHIFTING MOIST
AXIS WILL DRIVE SHOWERS INTO THE CNTRL MTNS LATE TNT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES
SO CUT BACK THUNDER MENTION TO SCHC. DESPITE HIGH PWATS...MID-
UPPER FORCING IS STILL WEAK SO QPF AMTS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS VIA SLY FLOW SHOULD BRING
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MINS AOA GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HI PWAT AXIS ASSOCD WITH DISSIPATING FRONT/850MB LLVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD EARLY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LKLY MOVG INTO THE
SUSQ VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ERODE THRU THE DAY GIVEN HI DEWPTS AND CONTINUED MOIST SLY LLVL
FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THRU THE PD AS SUMMERTIME RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OH VLY. WITH RATHER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...SHOWER
CVRG SHOULD BECOME ISOLD-SCT AT BEST AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO
20-30 PCT FROM TOMORROW AFTN THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. MAV/MET/ECM
BLEND SUGGESTS HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70F E OF THE
MTNS...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
U.S. WITH CENTER OF HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SW FLOW IN
LOW LEVELS...TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND NOT QUITE AT HOT IN THE EAST.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH WED...BRINGING THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. SFC TEMPS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AREAWIDE AS MID LEVEL TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C WITH +18-20C AT 850MB
WILL SUPPRESS CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THU WILL REMAIN HOT FOR MOST...POSS EVEN HOTTER THAN WED IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY /WHERE MID 90S ARE LIKELY/. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP NW MTNS IN THE MID 80S...WHICH
IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS OUR UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER TROF. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS
TOUGH...AND HEDGED LOW POPS TOWARD DAYTIME DIURNAL MAX PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND NAMPARA MDL DATA. EXPECT FURTHER
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS TROF MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA.
A SURGE OF HIGHER HUMIDITY ACCOMPANYING THIS TROF WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA MAY
LINGER UNTIL EARLY AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AS TROF
SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING FROM STRONG MID JUNE SUN
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LOW LVL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z. A FEW PM TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVR THE W MTNS...POTENTIALLY CAUSING A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT
BFD/JST LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSS. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THE HOT RIDGE WILL
BREAKDOWN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MUCH HIGHER DEEP LAYER PW ARRIVING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PA...
WEST OF SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS HOLDING TOUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF
PENNSYYLVANIA THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE EAST... A FAIR AND COMFORTABLY
WARM EVENING IS IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S. WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...
SFC DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE HIGHER PW
ENVIRONMENT (1.5 TO 1.9") WHICH ARE SUPPORTING 2 LINES OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ONE EXTENDING N-S ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND THE OTHER OVER EASTERN OHIO. BOTH
ARE SLOWLY BEING NUDGED EASTWARD AS UPPER SHEAR AXIS PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THANKS TO A STRIPE OF 850MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD SHIFTING MOIST
AXIS. DESPITE HIGH PWATS...MID- UPPER FORCING IS STILL WEAK SO
QPF AMTS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR/SFC
DEWPOINTS VIA SLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MINS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
1/2 OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HI PWAT AXIS ASSOCD WITH DISSIPATING FRONT/850MB LLVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD EARLY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LKLY MOVG INTO THE
SUSQ VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ERODE THRU THE DAY GIVEN HI DEWPTS AND CONTINUED MOIST SLY LLVL
FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THRU THE PD AS SUMMERTIME RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OH VLY. WITH RATHER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...SHOWER
CVRG SHOULD BECOME ISOLD-SCT AT BEST AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO
20-30 PCT FROM TOMORROW AFTN THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. MAV/MET/ECM
BLEND SUGGESTS HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70F E OF THE
MTNS...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
U.S. WITH CENTER OF HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SW FLOW IN
LOW LEVELS...TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND NOT QUITE AT HOT IN THE EAST.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH WED...BRINGING THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. SFC TEMPS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AREAWIDE AS MID LEVEL TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C WITH +18-20C AT 850MB
WILL SUPPRESS CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THU WILL REMAIN HOT FOR MOST...POSS EVEN HOTTER THAN WED IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY /WHERE MID 90S ARE LIKELY/. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP NW MTNS IN THE MID 80S...WHICH
IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS OUR UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER TROF. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS
TOUGH...AND HEDGED LOW POPS TOWARD DAYTIME DIURNAL MAX PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN AIRFIELDS BTWN 02-04Z
BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND NAMPARA MDL DATA. EXPECT FURTHER
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
ERN SXNS EARLY MONDAY. XPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATG
OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE PER TABULAR GUID. MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH HI
LLVL MSTR AND SLY FLOW PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER MON AFTN. THE MID- WEEK PERIOD
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
IMPACTS TO AVN DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HZ DURING
THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
THUR...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS WRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT/
MAJOR UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
NORTH OF I90 TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FALLEN APART THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA COULD
STILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF I90 BUT WILL REDUCE CHANCE
TO 40% AT BEST PER HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT/
PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TODAY AS WELL
DEFINED WAVE MOVES EAST OVER AREA. DECENT COVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT
ENDING FAR WEST BY LATE MORNING. STEADY ENDING FROM THE WNW DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH QUICK CLEARING WILL ALLOW WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR
NO THREAT OF SEVERE...SPC OUTLOOK SEEMS GOOD WITH SLIGHT RISK BARELY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRETTY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH DRYING LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL FOG THREAT...NOT TO
MENTION WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE SHORTEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR.
SUNDAY PROVIDES AN INTERESTING RETURN OF MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING BY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION ON MOISTURE RETURN
BEING AMPLE ENOUGH BUT OTHER PARAMETERS SUGGEST SPC IS RIGHT TO
BRING DAY 2 SEVERE THREAT INTO SD. JET SHEAR AND DECENT WARM
ADVECTION SUGGEST POSSIBLY LIMITED COVERAGE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
BUT A MODERATELY HIGH CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...AND THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. JET AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE
THREAT AS WELL WOULD EXIST OVER OUR NORTHEAST...THAT IS IN SOUTHWEST
MN...DESPITE THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE THREAT THERE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BECOME MINIMAL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN END FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WILL
KEEP A LITTLE MENTION IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NAM AND GFS
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY MAKES IT...WITH GFS
STUBBORN TO MOVE IT VERY FAR SOUTH...NOT AS IMPORTANT AS APPROACH OF
SHORT WAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND STORM THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER AREA. THEREAFTER...FOLLOWING WAVES SHOULD KEEP
STORM THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
MAKING A DRY FRIDAY LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO FROM SEASONABLY
WARM TO A BIT COOLER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
850 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT/
MAJOR UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
NORTH OF I90 TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FALLEN APART THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA COULD
STILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF I90 BUT WILL REDUCE CHANCE
TO 40% AT BEST PER HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT/
PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TODAY AS WELL
DEFINED WAVE MOVES EAST OVER AREA. DECENT COVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT
ENDING FAR WEST BY LATE MORNING. STEADY ENDING FROM THE WNW DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH QUICK CLEARING WILL ALLOW WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR
NO THREAT OF SEVERE...SPC OUTLOOK SEEMS GOOD WITH SLIGHT RISK BARELY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRETTY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH DRYING LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL FOG THREAT...NOT TO
MENTION WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE SHORTEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR.
SUNDAY PROVIDES AN INTERESTING RETURN OF MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING BY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION ON MOISTURE RETURN
BEING AMPLE ENOUGH BUT OTHER PARAMETERS SUGGEST SPC IS RIGHT TO
BRING DAY 2 SEVERE THREAT INTO SD. JET SHEAR AND DECENT WARM
ADVECTION SUGGEST POSSIBLY LIMITED COVERAGE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
BUT A MODERATELY HIGH CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...AND THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. JET AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE
THREAT AS WELL WOULD EXIST OVER OUR NORTHEAST...THAT IS IN SOUTHWEST
MN...DESPITE THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE THREAT THERE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BECOME MINIMAL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN END FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WILL
KEEP A LITTLE MENTION IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NAM AND GFS
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY MAKES IT...WITH GFS
STUBBORN TO MOVE IT VERY FAR SOUTH...NOT AS IMPORTANT AS APPROACH OF
SHORT WAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND STORM THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER AREA. THEREAFTER...FOLLOWING WAVES SHOULD KEEP
STORM THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
MAKING A DRY FRIDAY LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO FROM SEASONABLY
WARM TO A BIT COOLER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AT START OF TAF PERIOD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-18Z AS COOL FRONT
IN CENTRAL SD AT 12Z PUSHES EAST. OTHERWISE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER
ONLY IN KSUX TAF FOR THE 15Z-19Z TIME FRAME AS SMALL COMPLEX OF TSRA
IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST. AFTER 19Z-21Z...GREATER THREAT
OF TSRA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF KSUX AS COOL FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EAST
INTO IOWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
17/00Z. COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20-25KTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD IN THE
EVENING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND PLENTY
OF CAPE...FEEL TSRA WILL PERSIST. COULD GET SOME OCCASIONAL
STRONGER WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 22Z. AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL PROBABLY GET SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF EARLY MORNING MARINE AND COASTAL REGION CONVECTION
DWINDLING OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. IT APPEARED THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE
COVERAGE TODAY AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS/BOUNDARY THAT WAS SITTING
EAST OF US THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD...NOW
POSITIONED ROUGHLY PARALLEL OVER THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE...NEAR
SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 500MB PER LCH 12Z RAOB WITH A 1.86" PW.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THERMO INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR 2K FT MU CAPES...MARGINAL K AND TT
NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S RESPECTIVELY. LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
1.8 INCH RANGE TODAY...WITH THIS WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORM PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL AND
ALL...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE AN INHIBITER TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN BUT...TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT...30 TO 40 PERCENT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE THE MOST LOGICAL STAB AT IT.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS HARRIS AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ONE SHOWER IS HEADING TOWARDS IAH BUT
DISSIPATING QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP JUST VCSH IN FOR THIS MORNING.
AREA OF EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS QUIETED DOWN SOMEWHAT
BUT EXPECT THAT THIS AREA WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AXIS MOVES
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP VCSH THIS MORNING FOR SITES
CLOSE TO GALVESTON BAY AND THEN INTRODUCE VCTS FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST TRENDS DOWNWARD IF NECESSARY. 38
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 79 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF EARLY MORNING MARINE AND COASTAL REGION CONVECTION
DWINDLING OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. IT APPEARED THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE
COVERAGE TODAY AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS/BOUNDARY THAT WAS SITTING
EAST OF US THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD...NOW
POSITIONED ROUGHLY PARALLEL OVER THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE...NEAR
SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 500MB PER LCH 12Z RAOB WITH A 1.86" PW.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THERMO INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR 2K FT MU CAPES...MARGINAL K AND TT
NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S RESPECTIVELY. LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
1.8 INCH RANGE TODAY...WITH THIS WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORM PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL AND
ALL...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE AN INHIBITER TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN BUT...TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT...30 TO 40 PERCENT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE THE MOST LOGICAL STAB AT IT.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS HARRIS AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ONE SHOWER IS HEADING TOWARDS IAH BUT
DISSIPATING QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP JUST VCSH IN FOR THIS MORNING.
AREA OF EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS QUIETED DOWN SOMEWHAT
BUT EXPECT THAT THIS AREA WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AXIS MOVES
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP VCSH THIS MORNING FOR SITES
CLOSE TO GALVESTON BAY AND THEN INTRODUCE VCTS FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST TRENDS DOWNWARD IF NECESSARY. 38
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 79 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS HARRIS AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ONE SHOWER IS HEADING TOWARDS IAH BUT
DISSIPATING QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP JUST VCSH IN FOR THIS MORNING.
AREA OF EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS QUIETED DOWN SOMEWHAT
BUT EXPECT THAT THIS AREA WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AXIS MOVES
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP VCSH THIS MORNING FOR SITES
CLOSE TO GALVESTON BAY AND THEN INTRODUCE VCTS FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST TRENDS DOWNWARD IF NECESSARY. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 77 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 77 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
914 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...ADDED PARAGRAPH ON MONDAY WINDS.
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON WHY
THIS WOULD NOT CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN WI AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES SO WL ADD SCT/CHC MENTION IN FOR THE LATE EVENING TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND SPREAD THE CHANCE EWD LATER IN THE NIGHT.
FOCUS IS ON IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL MN ATTM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIND/HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD DURING THE EVENING. MOST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE AND MESO-SCALE MODELS MOVE THE MCS EWD ACROSS NRN
HALF OF WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION BETTER THAN HRRR AND WRF-ARW. THE WRF-
NMM MOVES THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAPPEN AS THIS AREA MAY
BE THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SYSTEM-RELATIVE CONVERGENCE WHEN
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WINDS AND MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...CORFIDI
VECTORS FOR LATE TONIGHT FROM BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE FROM THE N TO
NW AROUND 30KTS.
NSSL 4KM WRF SYNTHETIC IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION AND COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CURRENT CONVECTION IN WRN
MN/NORTHEAST SODAK. SYNTHETIC IMAGERY CARRIES MCS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI LATE TNGT AS IT WEAKENS. FOR NOW WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING
IN THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH EITHER SCT/CHC ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CLOUDS FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO
THIN AND WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 15 TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED LEVELS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS. MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO DO MORE THAN
MENTION IN HWO. BUMPED UP WINDSPEEDS IN GRIDS/ZFP.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...STRONG WIND SHEAR DEVELOPS BLO 2K FEET
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO WI. CHECK ABOVE DISCUSSION IN
RELATION TO LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. ANY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.
DEPENDING UPON EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS
FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
A TIME ON MONDAY AS FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KTS
APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE NEARSHORE AREAS LATE MRNG AND AFTN. OF COURSE ANY OUTFLOW FROM
MORNING CONVECTION WOULD DELAY THESE DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS FOR A
TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
813 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.UPDATE...INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON WHY
THIS WOULD NOT CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN WI AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES SO WL ADD SCT/CHC MENTION IN FOR THE LATE EVENING TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND SPREAD THE CHANCE EWD LATER IN THE NIGHT.
FOCUS IS ON IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL MN ATTM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIND/HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD DURING THE EVENING. MOST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE AND MESO-SCALE MODELS MOVE THE MCS EWD ACROSS NRN
HALF OF WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION BETTER THAN HRRR AND WRF-ARW. THE WRF-
NMM MOVES THE CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAPPEN AS THIS AREA MAY
BE THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SYSTEM-RELATIVE CONVERGENCE WHEN
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WINDS AND MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...CORFIDI
VECTORS FOR LATE TONIGHT FROM BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE FROM THE N TO
NW AROUND 30KTS.
NSSL 4KM WRF SYNTHETIC IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION AND COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CURRENT CONVECTION IN WRN
MN/NORTHEAST SODAK. SYNTHETIC IMAGERY CARRIES MCS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI LATE TNGT AS IT WEAKENS. FOR NOW WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING
IN THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH EITHER SCT/CHC ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...STRONG WIND SHEAR DEVELOPS BLO 2K FEET
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO WI. CHECK ABOVE DISCUSSION IN
RELATION TO LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. ANY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.
DEPENDING UPON EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS
FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
A TIME ON MONDAY AS FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KTS
APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE NEARSHORE AREAS LATE MRNG AND AFTN. OF COURSE ANY OUTFLOW FROM
MORNING CONVECTION WOULD DELAY THESE DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS FOR A
TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
719 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY BROAD/FLAT UPR TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING FM THE ERN PAC TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION EARLY IN THE FCST
PERIOD AS THE TROF AXIS CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THEN
PATTERN WL UNDERGO READJUSTMENT DURING THE WEEK...SO THAT BY NEXT
WEEKEND THERE SHOULD BE A SPRAWLING UPR HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/PRAIRIE
PROVINCES OF CANADA...AND WITH UPR TROFS ALONG BOTH COASTS.
WANT TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT FCSTG TOO MUCH PCPN GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
WX...BUT PROGGED PATTEN CERTAINLY SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL
PCPN AMNTS. TEMPS WL START OUT WELL ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND BACK
CLOSER TO...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ABV...SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT. ADDED SMALL POPS OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 21Z IN CASE THEY MAKE IT. OTHERWISE...AN
ENERGETIC JET STREAK IS PUSHING A SHORTWAVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ND/SD BORDER AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AS THIS CONVECTION
ORGANIZES LATER TODAY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE CHALLENGING FORECAST STARTS OUT RIGHT OFF THE BAT
THIS EVENING AND ONLY BECOMES MORE COMPLEX THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT/MID-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW. THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
WEAKEN BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THAT
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT DOES PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND DO NOT ENTIRELY TRUST THAT EVERYTHING WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED BY 00Z. ADDED CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THINKING AT THIS TIME THAT THE MAIN
SHOW FOR TONIGHT WILL GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
THIS EVENING AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LOST AND A 40-50KT
LLJ DEVELOPS. TRACKING THIS MCS IS TRICKY DUE TO MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MOVING NORTHEAST...WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT). A ROUGH GUESS WOULD TRACK THE MCS TO THE ENE ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ...WHILE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OR
ESE TOWARDS THE INSTABILITY. ELEVATED CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG AT
09Z SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE INTO N-C AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH (15KFT)...SO THINK THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE BEEFY LLJ OVERHEAD
AND HEAVY RAINFALL (PWATS 1.7 INCHES AND K-INDEX OF 41). THE MCS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NE WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT.
MONDAY...THE MCS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
EXITING DURING THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LEFT
OVER FROM THE MCS WHICH SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS IN THE MORNING.
VERY WARM TEMPS AT 850MB AND THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PARTIALLY
ERODE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING WE
RECEIVE WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
PM HOURS. WILL HAVE A COOL FRONT PUSH INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...THOUGH ITS NOT CLEAR IF
CONVECTION CONTINUES ON THE TAIL OF THE MCS...OR REDEVELOPS ON
OTHER BOUNDARIES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KTS AND ML CAPES
OF 1500 J/KG SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP AND MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. CONVECTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER CONCERNS. WILL GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F NORTH TO UPPER
80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MON NGT THROUGH NEXT SUN. THE FLOW WITHIN THE BASE
OF THE BROAD UPR TROF ACRS THE NWRN PART OF THE CONUS WAS PRETTY
STG FOR JUNE...WITH UPR SPEED MAX OF NEARLY 150 KTS WORKING EWD
ACRS THE PAC NW. THE JET WORKING E COMBINED WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT
IN VERY ACTIVE WX ACRS THE FCST AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OSCILLATES N AND S FOR A COUPLE DAYS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SVR
CONVECTION ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RGN...WITH
QUESTION BEING WHETHER/WHEN INDIVIDUAL EVENTS AFFECT THE FCST
AREA. TRIED TO ADD A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO POPS...BUT WITH PCPN
CHCS GENERALLY TIED TO POSN OF FRONT AND THAT DEPENDING ON PRIOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT/MVMT...THERE WAS NO WAY TO REALLY GET ARND HAVING
SEVERAL PERIODS WITH HIGHER END CHC POPS AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE
AREA.
ONCE THE MAJOR SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF CROSSES THE RGN
MID-WEEK...A COUPLE DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BUT IT WL BE HARD TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
PCPN AS FCST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES...AND IN A LCN SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONVECTION FIRING ARND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING PLAINS UPR HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. BEFORE THEY ARRIVE...GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE EVENING
PRODUCING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 40 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL.
RDM
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
317 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PROMINENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION EARLIER TODAY WHICH
IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXISTS OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST OVER MINNESOTA. STORMS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
FAR. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...BUT TEMPS ARE ONLY THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...AND ARE COOLER OVER WISCONSIN SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE EAST...PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT IS PASSING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. TRACKING
THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION TAKES IT NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY...SO WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF THIS LINE. CAN
STILL EXPECT MORE SPOTTY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY IN THE
EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHEN A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK. STILL THOUGH...THE
MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT 300-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT WONDER IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE A NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SPLIT...WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH. IF SOME SORT OF BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DOES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...FIGURE IT WILL BE WEAKENING
AS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING SINCE
INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING. THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
BY 09Z AND WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNAL CU DEVELOP OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE COOLER
TEMPS WILL RESIDE AT 850MB AND THERE IS ENHANCED RH. LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODELS DIFFERED IN HOW QUICKLY THEY TOOK THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE EAST REMAINS DRY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH PLENTY
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MODELS INDICATED A WEST TO EAST AXIS OF MAX QPF MOVING NORTH ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
TIMING DIFFERENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE
FOX VALLEY MAY DEVELOP. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z SUNDAY BRINGING A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AGAIN...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 08Z.
WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE MANY WITH A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES NEARLY EVERY DAY. SOME DAYS WILL HAVE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING BIGGER RAINS AND RIVER RISES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER
AMES IA TONIGHT AS IT ROTATES ECHOES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON ITS
EASTERN SIDE. ONLY SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AND NOW MANY SITES IN IA ARE JUST REPORTING CLOUDS.
A SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING. 00Z RAOBS AGAIN QUITE DRY
WITH KDVN SHOWING 20C+ DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH ITS
DEPTH...AND KMPX ISNT FAR BEHIND WITH ABOUT ONLY AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH THE
DRY SOILS AND AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN WI AND WETTER SOILS AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR IN WESTERN WI/MN/IA. THE AXIS OF 68-70F
DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM KBRF-KLSE-KRST STILL HAS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WITH IT. A N-S COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER
TODAY IS CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECREASING PER WARMING CLOUD TOPS. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE 16.00Z MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE AMES IA LOW TRACK IS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE
CIRCULATION IS HAVING DIFFICULTIES GENERATING RAINFALL IN THE DRY
AIR MASS THAT IT IS LIVING IN. A DIURNAL PULSE UP IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPANSE OF CLOUD AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BELIEVE IT WILL NOT BE AS SEEN FRIDAY IN IOWA AS CLEAR SKIES
FOR MANY HOURS OCCURRED THERE. SOME INSTABILITY AND PULSE SHOULD
OCCUR MAINLY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA OF WI BY AFTERNOON. THIS
AGREED ON BY MANY 16.00Z MODELS AND GFS WRF RUN LOCALLY. 16.06Z
NAM ALSO IN THIS CAMP AND 16.00Z HI RES WRF NMM. HOWEVER...OTHERS
ARE MORE LIMITED /HI RES 16.00Z WRF ARW/ AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY
CLOUDS...SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS. HAVE TAKEN HIGHS DOWN ABOUT 5F IN
WI TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
AS THE DAKOTAS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST FOR A PERFECT PASSAGE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING FAVORING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL AMES LOW WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BELIEVE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT MOVING IN WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
TAKING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST T/TD AND THE 16.00Z NAM
SOUNDING...ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS PRESENT AT 21Z. SHEAR
REMAINS LIMITED IN THE LOWER 0-3KM...BUT AROUND 30-35 KTS.
SO...THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR CONVECTION AND BOWING SEGMENTS
FAVORING DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL LIMITATION THAT
IS A CONCERN IS THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
FOLLOWING THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW PASSAGE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE CONVERGENCE
ON THE FRONT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND COULD LEAD TO LOWER SEVERE
POTENTIAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE RAIN COVERAGE OVERALL.
BOTTOM LINE TODAY IS STILL THAT SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED
AND ISOLATED...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. PULSE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE ARE THE THREATS. THE MAIN TIMING IS 21-03Z ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LIMITING INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT AND POSSIBLY INTERFERING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER
WHERE STORMS WOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS. STORMS MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN
AND DIE AS THEY APPROACH THE RIVER PER STATED LIMITATIONS.
SO...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN AREAL EXTENT.
ALL WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS BEAUTIFUL.
THE NEXT WEATHER THREAT IS A RAPIDLY RETURNING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE SURGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VERY
GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON STRONG
ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE LEADING TO
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE MN RIVER OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
INCREASED FURTHER AND WITH CORFIDI VECTORS POINTING TOWARD A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT...ENTIRE AREA MAY SEE THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...A
VERY STRONG CAPPING AND WARM LAYER IS COMING IN BEHIND AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM. CONSENSUS MODEL PARAMETER SPACE FOR THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS SEVERE QUITE LIKELY NORTH OF I-90 WITH 2000 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE...DEEP STRONG SHEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WOULD ERUPT
AS AN OVERNIGHT THREAT AND TRANSITION TO A LARGE BOW ECHO
SYSTEM MONDAY. THIS IS A PERIOD TO WATCH. HAVE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
THERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH. WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO
FOR THIS PERIOD. SPC DAY 3 LOOKS APPROPRIATE. HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY WITH VERY WARM AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
MONDAYS FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND AGAIN SEES A MOISTURE SURGE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL MN PER 16.00Z ECMWF/NAM. THIS DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE
AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR STORMS
TO POSSIBLY BE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. I-90 AND NORTH APPEARS TO AGAIN
BE THE TARGET. THIS CONVECTION WOULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG SHEAR AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...THIS IS MORE RAIN TO POTENTIALLY THE
SAME AREA. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION ON THIS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES THE THEME OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING ACTIVE
IN THE AREA. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A DECREASING RAINFALL EVENT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...ONLY TO
SETTLE BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST FLOW IMPINGING ON BOUNDARY AND CONVECTING. BY
THIS TIME...SHOULD IT BE IN THE I-90 CORRIDOR...FLOODING COULD BE
A REAL ISSUE. WHILE THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENT IS BOTH FURTHER OUT
IN TIME AND LOOKS TO BE OF ONLY MODERATE INTENSITY...IT STILL IS A
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRYING PATTERN
THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF IA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE
STARTS TO SHIFT MORE EAST. HRRR CAPTURES THIS AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT
-SHRA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT TO KRST/KLSE. LATEST RAP MODEL RUN CONTINUES
TO POINT TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN
WI...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY TS WITH CURRENT PCPN. WILL EASE BACK THE
EXPECTED PCPN CHANCES AS A RESULT FOR KRST/KLSE...AND GO WITH VCSH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EARLY ON SATURDAY THAT SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE COULD STILL BE A PLAYER
AT KRST/KLSE. VARIOUS MESO MODELS POINT TO A REFIRING AROUND THE
SHORTWAVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GOING TO BANK ON IT BEING
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT KRST/KLSE.
LATER ON THE DAY ON SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TS CHANCES. HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY ARE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND WHERE THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES TONIGHT. IF ITS
SLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EARLY ON SAT...CUTTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY. THUS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED. IF
THE PCPN AND SOME CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BY LATE SAT
MORNING...WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASED SHRA/TS
THREAT AROUND 22Z SAT...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION FOR
KRST/KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
THIS SET OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RAISED THE LEVEL OF CONCERN FOR
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE PERIOD WAS ADVERTISED AS AN ACTIVE PERIOD
FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN OUR WEB NEWS STORIES AND HWO...THIS ROUND
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF FLOODING RAINS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. A CLASSIC FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOODING PATTERN
COULD SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE INGREDIENTS OF VERY WARM MOIST
AIR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ISENTROPICALLY RISING TO
THE NORTH RELEASING ITS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS OF OVER 4 KM...AND HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE DAYTIME WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS ARE ALL PRESENT. IT APPEARS MULTI-INCH RAIN
EVENTS COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EACH OF THE DAYS FROM MON-
WED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE CUMULATIVE AFFECTS COULD
CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONFIDENCE STILL IS NOT HIGH ON THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THIS WILL BE KEY TO THE RAIN FALL PLACEMENT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
715 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
DESPITE 2000+ MUCAPE VIA THE LATEST RAP OVER A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...NO CONVECTION AS DEVELOPED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CU
DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY JUST LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD. LATEST HRRR RUN
HINTS THAT SOMETHING COULD STILL GO ON THE BOUNDARY...BUT VERY
ISOLATED AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV DRIVING THE CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA.
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY...ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. WILL ADJUST
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER
UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING FOR OVERNIGHT CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
15.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM AND
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL
HINTING AT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE
BOUNDARY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE 12Z GFS
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING FURTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST...PLACING IT FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL EDGE THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 70S
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF IA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE
STARTS TO SHIFT MORE EAST. HRRR CAPTURES THIS AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT
-SHRA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT TO KRST/KLSE. LATEST RAP MODEL RUN CONTINUES
TO POINT TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN
WI...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY TS WITH CURRENT PCPN. WILL EASE BACK THE
EXPECTED PCPN CHANCES AS A RESULT FOR KRST/KLSE...AND GO WITH VCSH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EARLY ON SATURDAY THAT SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE COULD STILL BE A PLAYER
AT KRST/KLSE. VARIOUS MESO MODELS POINT TO A REFIRING AROUND THE
SHORTWAVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GOING TO BANK ON IT BEING
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT KRST/KLSE.
LATER ON THE DAY ON SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TS CHANCES. HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY ARE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND WHERE THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES TONIGHT. IF ITS
SLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EARLY ON SAT...CUTTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY. THUS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED. IF
THE PCPN AND SOME CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BY LATE SAT
MORNING...WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASED SHRA/TS
THREAT AROUND 22Z SAT...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION FOR
KRST/KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS DURING THE NEXT 24H. IT WILL BE VERY HOT TOMORROW WITH 100+
READINGS AT KPUB...95-97F AT KCOS AND 85-89 AT KALS. SOME GUSTS TO
25 MPH FROM A S-SW TO SW DIRECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FCST TO MENTION SMOKE IN THE FCST. MODELS SHOWS LOWER
LVL FLOW FROM THE WNW THE REST OF TODAY SHIFTING TO THE WEST
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY W-SW TOMORROW. SMOKE WILL SETTLE TONIGHT
ONCE THE INVERSION SETS IN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY.
WE CAN SMELL THE SMOKE HERE AT THE WX OFFICE WHICH IS LOCATED AT
THE PUEBLO AIRPORT. /34
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY IS
WEST TO NW AND THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING WIND
GUSTS THAT ARE MEETING CRITERIA FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING...AS ARE
THE RH VALUES. ON MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AS AN UPR TROF MOVING INTO WRN MT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS
OVER THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL AGAIN REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...AS WILL THE MIN RH VALUES. THUS WL UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NSSL 4KM WRF AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE CONVECTION NR THE SRN BORDER THRU ABOUT 00Z. HAVE
SEE A FEW ECHOES IN THE OK PANHANDLE...BUT WL KEEP POPS LESS THAN 15
PERCENT ALONG THE SRN BORDER FOR THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. H7 TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 17C-21C. TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103...WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE MID AND UPR 80S. THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS MON IS 96...FOR
PUEBLO IS 104 AND FOR ALAMOSA IS 90. /28
LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
.CONTINUED HOT AND DRY...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...A TYPICAL
PRE-MONSOONAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE ROCKIES. TUE SHOULD BE THE
LAST DAY OF POTENTIAL RECORD-BREAKING HEAT...AS H7 TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 18-20 DEG C RANGE. FIRE WX DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ON TUE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
ON TUE...AND THAT WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG STATUS. THE NAM 12KM
SUGGESTS A FAIRLY BROAD LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVR THE AREA...AND
THE STRONGEST SFC GRADIENT WILL BE OVER W KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE.
THIS COULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT E OF THE MTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
STRONG JET TO OUR N...AND WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECT SOME STRONGER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WINDS SHOULD
STILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON MON...HOWEVER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WX
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY WED...AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
DRAMATICALLY ON WED AS H7 TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW 10 DEG C. COULD EVEN
SEE SOME UPPR 70S ON WED OVR THE PLAINS...FOR A PLEASANT REPRISE
FROM THE HEAT. THE PLEASANTRY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A
TROUGH RELOADS ON THE W COAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
DRY AND HOT W-SW FLOW RESUMES. TEMPS COULD EASILY BE BACK INTO THE
UPPR 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE GENERALLY LIGHT SFC
WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION
THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE TAP LOOKS
MODEST AT BEST. DOG DAYS OF SUMMER APPEAR TO BE WITH US UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. 44
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KALS THRU ABOUT
01Z. KPUB AND KCOS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS THRU
ABOUT 01Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 15-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ064-
220>225.
&&
$$
34/34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KVTN WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. MESO HIGHS AND LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI INTO WISCONSIN WERE ACROSS MN/WI. A
FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 50S OVER THE
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE CONCERNS TODAY ARE MANY. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 18TH.
FIRST...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAP MODEL TRENDS THE MCS OVER
WISCONSIN WILL MISS THE CWFA. THUS THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE DRY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE MCS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE INVERSION BREAKS.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.
THE NEXT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBLE HEADLINE FOR HEAT.
BASED ON THE SOURCE REGION FROM YESTERDAY AND THE WARM START THIS
MORNING MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 92 TO 96 RANGE ACROSS
THE AREA. FAVORED WARM AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE UPPER 90S. DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN DEW POINTS DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 64 TO 68 DEGREE RANGE. BASED ON
THIS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100
DEGREES.
CONSIDERABLE THOUGHT WENT INTO WHETHER OR NOT TO GO WITH HEAT
HEADLINES. FIRST...THE CRITERIA OF 100 WILL BE ACHIEVED OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...YESTERDAY WAS NOT OVERLY WARM
AND HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ACCUMULATIVE OVER SEVERAL DAYS.
SINCE TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF REALLY HOT WX THE DECISION
WAS TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEAT HEADLINES. HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED
TO BE REVISITED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY IF DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGHER THAN FCST.
TONIGHT...THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE CONVECTION FIRE. MCS AND
LIFT TOOLS SUGGEST NORTHERN IOWA NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AT THE EDGE
OF THE CAP. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD THEN TAKE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS EAST WITH PERHAPS A SLOW PROPAGATION DRIFT TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCHC POPS IN THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR WHICH IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP. MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH LOWS OF 70 TO 75. ..08..
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND THE NEXT WARM AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF MONDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS HEAT
AND WIND AS WE CONTINUE TO BAKE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THEN THINGS GET
INTERESTING WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A LATE DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z NAM THE
FASTEST AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE NAM BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA RIGHT AT PEAK HEATING. THUS IT
INDICATES THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE
AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE GIVEN THE NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
THE ECMWF INDICATES MORE OF A LATE EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
GFS IS IN BETWEEN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MARKED DIURNAL
IMPACT ON CAPE WITH INSTABILITY...AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT...
DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. GFS CAPES LOOK TOO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH
GIVEN ISSUES WITH OVERDONE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
COMMONPLACE OF LATE. WILL MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...BUT
AVOID DETAILS UNTIL THE PICTURE CLARIFIES.
GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...INTEREST IS QPF POTENTIAL IS
HIGH. FORECAST PW VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...THOUGH
AGAIN THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE GFS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE. GIVEN THE
NAM FORECAST...QPF COULD BE LOCALLY HIGH WITH 1.5 INCH PW VALUES AT
150% OF NORMAL...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT MIGHT
NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD AREA OF REALLY DECENT RAINFALL THAT
WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE DRYNESS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE AVERAGE
A LITTLE MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN A WEEK...OR ABOUT 4.5 INCHES FOR
THE MONTH...SO WE MAY DO LITTLE MORE THAN TREAD WATER IN THIS EVENT
IN MOST AREAS.
ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PHASING WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
CWA...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
THE GFS AND 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...
PUTTING US IN EASTERLY FLOW. COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
AND REFLECTED THESE CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS AND WIND FORECASTS.
WOLF
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/19. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFT 14Z/18 AS THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 KTS EXPECTED. AFT 00Z/19 THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF VCTS
OCCURRING AT KDBQ. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF
THE 12Z TAFS AND SEE HOW POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER TODAY.
THUS VFR WX IS EXPECTED AFT 00Z/19. ..08..
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 18...
MOLINE.........98 IN 1994
CEDAR RAPIDS...99 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........96 IN 1887
BURLINGTON.....97 IN 1953
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-
HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-
LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-
MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-
WHITESIDE.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH A
110-120 KT 250-300 MB JET THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO N CNTRL NEBRASKA
FROM LOW PRES NEAR WINNIPEG. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NW MN
THROUGH WRN WI INTO NRN IL. A LARGE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NE SOUTH
DAKOTA HAS MOVED THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLOW AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WERE LINED UP FROM E CNTRL THROUGH
SRN WI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ENDING OVER CNTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND
10Z AND OVER THE EAST BY 12Z. HOWEVER...SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY
REDEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE NW MN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WAS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
THIN OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS TO
AROUND 80 AND MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK AND THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE REGION EXPECT FORCING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST TSRA SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...AIDED BY LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND SPREAD INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
STRONG 500 MB WINDS(TO 80 KT) LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 60-70 KT RANGE WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS BEFORE
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR LINES.
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WOULD BE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS...PER SPC. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
TUESDAY...
WE WILL START THIS PERIOD WITH W-SW FLOW ALOFT...IN
BETWEEN A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN/OH RIVER
VALLEYS AND A PROGRESSIVE LOW OVER MT. AT THE SFC...THE EXITING LOW
SHOULD BE JUST NE OF JAMES BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR /OR JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR/
THROUGH THE NEXT LOW SET UP OVER S CENTRAL SD. EXPECT WARMER AIR TO
SURGE INTO THE S AND E SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT PUSHES N OF LAKE MI TO OR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR 00Z WEDNESDAY /850MB TEMPS OF
18-22C/. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TS TO SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST LIKELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE MT LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO N CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS LOOK TO BE
FOLLOWING 3 SEPARATE IDEAS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE
FIRST BEING A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/NAM/SREF SOLUTION. THE OLDER
17/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WHILE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT SLOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE CANADIAN NEVER REALLY CATCHING
UP UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE CANADIAN WILL NOT
BE HIGHLY UTILIZED BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. BACK AT THE
SFC...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH BELOW 70F TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES WELL NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY /35-40KT 850MB WINDS AND TEMPS OF 15-20C/...IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW SHIFTING ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR/MN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF BEING ONE OF THE
DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE SFC LOW IS ON THE NW OR SLOWER SIDE. THIS
DOES MAKE TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT...WITH IT LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND BE
MAINLY E OF THE CWA BY 06Z THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SFC
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF OUR WEATHER WILL
BE DOMINATED BY THE LINGERING 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON
BAY/ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WITH BE COOLER W-NW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGING 8-10C THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY FROM CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING INTO PLENTY OF DRY AIR AOA 800MB
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN RH VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT
INTERIOR WEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AS
THE TIME NEARS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE S STATES WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH MT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY EXITING. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THEN.
THE CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE 500MB RIDGE UP THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA BY MONDAY. EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPS...AND THE RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SD/NE SATURDAY ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
AS 500MB WAVE PUSHES IN. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO PRINT OUT
PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...IT IS MAINLY ALONG THE WI BORDER...AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
INCRSG SLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR BTWN HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LO
PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS CAUSED AREA OF SHRA/TS TO DVLP OVER CNTRL MN
THIS EVNG. SINCE THE BULK OF THE SHRA/TS ARE HEADING MORE ESEWD INTO
WI...EXPECT THE SHRA/ISOLD TS MOVING TOWARD UPR MI TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS THE LLJ INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE AND CAUSES
LLWS. BEST CHC FOR TS/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PCPN WL BE AT
IWD...AND INCLUDED MENTION OF TS AT IWD FOR THE FIRST HR OR SO OF
TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NE...RESIDUAL DRY LLVL AIR WL LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS WHEN THE -SHRA ARRIVE AT CMX/SAW. AFTER THE -SHRA
END...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LO CLDS/MVFR CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF
WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE NE FM WI...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH UPSLOPE
S WIND. MORE SHRA/TS ARE PSBL IN THE AFTN...BUT ONCE AGAIN DID NOT
INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS. VIGOROUS DRYING ALOFT SHOULD END THE SHRA/TS
THREAT W-E LATE THIS AFTN AND ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
RELATIVELY SMALL SECTIONS OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
COOLER LS WATERS. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH NE
WILL CONSOLIDATE N-NW OF LS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CROSSING JAMES
BAY AND INTO QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE /MAINLY ACROSS S PORTIONS OF LS/. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP ACROSS LS...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SD/NE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW SHOULD CROSS N MN/W
LS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER LS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SINKING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.DISCUSSION...
TO SAY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACTIVE IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
A RISK FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING. STILL ANTICIPATING A SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE WE GET A BREAK IN
THE ACTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT COMES SURGING
BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THOSE TWO DAYS. BESIDE SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WITH
THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXISTING THOSE
DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY STRONG
UPPER JET /100-150 KTS/ SLAMMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIGHT NOW. BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
WORK EAST ACROSS MN INTO WI THIS AFTERNOON ON NOSE OF 40 KT LLJ
AND LEADING BLAST OF THETA-E ADVECTION. BACK FURTHER
WEST...STARTING TO SEE A NICE WARM FRONT TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
CLOUDS IN SW MN INTO NE SD...ALMOST RIGHT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
MLCAPES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN ERN SODAK HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 3000 J/KG. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND BACKING WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /NOW AROUND
50 KTS/ AND 0-1KM SHEAR /25-30 KTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/
INCREASING QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL
SIMILAR WITH INITIATING CONVECTION BY 22Z ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER
AROUND YELLOW MEDICINE/LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES...STORM TYPE WILL BE SUPER CELLULAR WITH A
GOOD RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
THROUGH ABOUT 0/1Z. WHAT IS MORE WORRISOME IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THESE STORMS INITIATE. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT HI-RES GUIDANCE YOU
LOOK AT...HRRR/NMM/ARW/MPX-WRF...THEY ALL CONGEAL THE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO A LINE AND SEND IT RACING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BIG WORRY HERE IS THAT PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE
COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO THIS
EVENING THAT THEN ROUGHLY FOLLOWS I-94 DOWN INTO THE TWIN CITES.
BY 6Z...THE RAP HAS MUCAPE OVER THE TWIN CITIES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG...DCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND MOST WORRISOME OF ALL...AN
H85 LLJ INCREASING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KTS ALL POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO. THE BIG HOPE IS THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED AIR /TEMPS IN RAIN HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S/ WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH ACROSS
ERN MN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CAN NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS
TO REACH THE SFC AND WE END UP WITH AN ELEVATED MCS. EITHER WAY
YOU SLICE IT...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT FOR THE MPX
AREA.
TONIGHT...MODELS DRIVE A FRONT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MONDAY NOW
LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY AND CUT POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR SE
CWA. LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT COMES SURGING BACK
NORTH...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MN MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY ON YET ANOTHER 50 KT
LLJ. THIS THEN LEADS US INTO WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS HERE IS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER THESE TWO DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF NOW BEING LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWING FRONTAL PLACEMENT MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL BE
VERY WARM AND HUMID SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS LIKELY IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAY NOT
SEE MUCH ACTIVITY AS STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...WITH H7 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND +14C...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW MID
LEVEL TEMPS COOLING...WITH ALL SORTS OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF.
WORRY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THAT BESIDE ALL THE
INSTABILITY...AN IMPRESSIVE 70-90 KT SW MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE
SPLAYED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT TUES/WED...WHICH MEANS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS WILL BE HIGH...AND WITH PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES
/180 PERCENT OF NORMAL/...FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
MODELS FINALLY SHOWING WNW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY
THURSDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN FINALLY GETTING
KICKED OUT OF HERE. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THU/FRI...WHICH IS
DRY...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT/FRI...JUST AS THE ECWMF SLIDES A 1020 MB HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS UP SATURDAY WHEN
THE ECWMF/GFS SHOW A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING UP INTO THE MPX AREA
AS A SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS SODAK INTO IA. AS A RESULT...BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SAT NIGHT. LOOKING JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE...WITH
SIGNS OF A DECENT HEAT WAVE SHOWING UP FOR THE END OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STILL HAVE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO TSRA OVER EASTERN TAF SITES FOR
A FEW HOURS YET. THEN MAY HAVE SOME MVFR CIG/BR THROUGH ABOUT
13Z...AGAIN OVER EASTERN AREAS BEFORE WINDS DO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EAST OVER
NORTHERN CWA WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE WINDS GUST A
BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREA AFTER 18Z AS DRIER AIR
TRIES TO MOVE IN. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN
THE NIGHT/AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF WAA PATTERN. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
.KMSP...STILL HAVE SOME TSRA LAGGING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. WILL
HOLD ONTO THEM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AS IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME CUMULUS AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE DAY MONDAY
AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WIND PERHAPS A BIT GUSTY
EARLY...SHOULD BECOME MORE WEST WITH FROPA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN AFTER 06Z TUE AND PERHAPS SOME MID CLOUDS
OUT AHEAD OF NEXT WAA PATTERN WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THEN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 12 TO 17
KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/DE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGH LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
MONDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGES TOWARD THE TERMINAL. THERE IS
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A STORM MAY DEVELOP NW OF KGRI IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM THAT ACTIVITY WILL
REACH KGRI.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW
CLOSE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL COME TO MEETING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
19Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A STILL-DEEPENING 996MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL SD...IN RESPONSE TO A 110KT 300MB JET STREAK TRACKING
DUE EAST OUT OF MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW INTO NORTHWEST NEB...BUT STILL
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE
FALLS...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND THE 750MB ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A BREEZY/WINDY DAY HAS ENSUED...WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH/GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER. AS SUSPECTED IN THE EARLIER AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS
THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
MIXING. IN FACT...WITH DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S IN SOME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
OF 20 PERCENT IS BEING BREACHED IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT WITH ONLY KS
COUNTIES OFFICIALLY HAVING A FAVORABLE FUEL STATUS FOR LARGE FIRE
GROWTH...AND ANY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT LIKELY
TO ONLY AFFECT A SMALL AREA FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE...WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. TEMP WISE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF MAINLY
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD FALL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL SHOULD END UP WITH SOLID COVERAGE OF AT
LEAST LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MOST NEB COUNTIES...AND UPPER 90S IN MOST
OF KS ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY AREA. ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA REGION IS BY FAR THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST...WITH WEAKER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT ALL THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CWA. WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING
INTO THE 12-15C RANGE AS A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THIS SHOULD KEEP A STOUT CAP IN PLACE. A FEW
MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND 18Z NAM ATTEMPT TO BREAK OUT A FEW HIGH
BASED STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB AT SOME POINT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...BUT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGRATES EAST TOWARD THE IA/MN/NE/SD BORDER AREA
OVERNIGHT...A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA ALL NIGHT LONG...WITH BREEZES OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH REMAINING
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE NIGHT HOWEVER...SPEEDS WILL START TO SLACKEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPERATURES...STILL AIMING FOR MID 60S
FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW 70S EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE CENTRAL AREAS HOLD ABOVE THE 70-MARK AS
WELL.
TURNING TO THE 12Z-00Z DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES AS A STOUT CAP WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 13-16C
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. ALOFT...THE FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MN
REGION...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...WIND TRENDS ARE A BIT
TRICKY THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKS AT LEAST PARTWAY INTO THE CWA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY USHERING IN A LIGHT WESTERLY/NORTHERLY COMPONENT...BUT THEN
THE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS...WITH ALL AREAS BACK IN A LIGHT TO STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM START
AND VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE...A RATHER HOT DAY IS STILL
ADVERTISED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
DIDN/T CHANGE HIGH TEMPS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL
CALLING FOR A RANGE FROM MID 90S FAR NORTH...UPPER 90S ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR...AND 100-105 ACROSS SEVERAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...WITHIN MANY OF THESE HOTTEST
COUNTIES...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PER MET GUIDANCE/RAW NAM SUGGESTION. AS A
RESULT...FORECAST APPARENT TEMPERATURES TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE
100-104 RANGE...WHICH IS JUST BARELY BELOW CRITERIA FOR HEAT
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE VERY CLOSE. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN HWO MENTION OF NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
NO ACTUAL HEADLINE SEEMS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. ALONG THESE SAME
LINES...DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CRASHING INTO THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SEVERAL WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH NEEDED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE DON/T APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE...SO NO FIRE
HEADLINES PLANNED.
LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
CONTINUE TO BE HEAT EARLY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID
WEEK...AND THEN MORE HEAT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL VERY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING...IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
BY WED EVENING WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AT
THAT TIME AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD BE A WARM FRONT DRAPED
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THIS IS SLATED
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM SW TO
NE NEBRASKA. ON TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO APPROACH
THE CWA...EXTENDING FROM VTN TO LBF BY 12Z...AND FROM FULLERTON TO
CAMBRIDGE BY 00Z. QUESTION HERE IS HOW LONG WILL WE REMAIN CAPPED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT PROGGED 700 MB TEMPS IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL IN THE NW WHETHER CONVECTION CAN INITIATE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME WED THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. BY 06Z THE
NE/SW ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD BE ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA...AND
EXPECT IT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MODEL GENERATED QPF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WILL FALL. THE NAM AND THE GFS BOTH SHOW THE RAIN STARTING
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT THE NAM HAS THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR CWA ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT. LATEST GFS
CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MORE ACROSS OUR CWA. IT ALSO SHOWS THE MID
LEVEL FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
OLD EC SHOWED MORE OF A NORTHERN SOLUTION AND WILL TAKE A LATE LOOK
AT THE 12Z RUN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL. CHECKING OTHER
MODELS...BOTH THE SREF AND GEM SUPPORT A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
WHILE THE UKMET MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION.
WED AND THU STILL SHOWING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AS LATEST GFS
NOW BRINGS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE OLD EC AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOT SHOWING THIS AT ALL. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS
AND WHILE IT MAY NOT BE TOTALLY DRY ON THURSDAY...BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVE THE HIGH DEWPOINT BIAS AS OF LATE
CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE POSSIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STARTING IN THE NW PART OF THE CWA TUESDAY LATE AFTN/EVE AS MUCAPE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BOTH RESPECTABLE VIA THE EC. SHEAR MUCH LESS IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. BY WED LATE AFTERNOON BEST SEVERE
PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO OLD EC RUN BUT A
LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING COULD PUT PART OF OUR CWA IN THE PICTURE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS BOTH SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN A STOUT RIDGE BY THEN. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE IF WE
END UP WITH A FEW RIDGE RUNNERS AROUND THE RING OF FIRE THAT CLIP A
PART OF OUR AREA. THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME...BUT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
THIS TYPE OF JULY PATTERN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...STEADY SOUTH BREEZES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 15 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH
GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 26KT. THERE COULD BE BIT OF A LULL IN
THESE GUSTS DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT DEPICTED THIS FOR
NOW. OVERNIGHT...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...AS SOUTHERLY SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT BETWEEN
1500-2000 FT AGL. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT FOR NOW AS DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND THE SPEED DIFFERENCE IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL FOR A FORMAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION. LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL
DECREASE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS A BIT...AND START TURNING THEM MORE
WESTERLY. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE MAY TAKE HOLD BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER SHIFTS TO ADD THIS WIND SHIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SUNDAY...
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH/TN
VALLY REGIONS. THE MAIN S/W TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ARE DWINDLING IN COVERAGE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW RIDGING ALOFT HANGING ON ACROSS THE
AREA.... WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS AND LACK OF OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL LOWER
POPS... ONLY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (AS SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
REMOTE POSSIBLY OF A SHOWER OR TWO THERE). HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT S/W`S NOTED ON THE NAM... GFS AND RUC ON THE 1.5 PVU
SURFACE AND MODELS NOT SHOWING EVEN MUCH/IF ANY MUCAPE.... THINK
THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE. STILL EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM
GENERALLY THE UPPER 50S EAST TO THE LOWER 60S WEST (GIVEN MORE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST)... WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MID 50S IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST (WHERE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE THE LEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...
AS THE MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT RUN INTO A DRIER AIR MASS FURTHER TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORTICITY ON
THE 1.5PVU SURFACE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR MINIMAL
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH SOME...AND TOWARD KRWI ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE
MODEST UNDER WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AT OR LESS THAN 20KT...WITH MLCAPE IN
THE LOWEST KILOMETER AROUND 500J/KG BY 21Z. LIFTED INDICES FALL TO
AS MUCH AS -3C OR -4C...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND BASED ON THE THERMAL WIND PROFILE
FOLLOWING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESSES...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
WETTER GFS AND THE DRIER NAM...MORE TOWARD THE COMPROMISE SREF...TO
FORECAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1 WITH
HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CHANCES TOWARD KINT.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO GOLDSBORO FOR LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING
EAST...OR POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER 1.5PVU MODEST VORTICITY MAXIMUM. ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...THE LATTER 6C/KM TO 6.25C/KM...
PLUS WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM
RELATIVELY LOW...NOT COMPLETELY NON-ZERO TOWARD THE TRIAD...BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO AVOID MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW. HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...AT OR A DEGREE
COOL MONDAY EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...WHERE THE HIGHEST
THICKNESSES AND POSSIBLY THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SUN RELATIVE TO THE
REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED. FORECAST LOWS AT OR A
DEGREE WARM MONDAY NIGHT UNDER A MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS
AND SOME SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE PATTERN QUITE STATIC DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CHANGES ALOFT HOWEVER AS WINDS
SHIFT TOWARD EAST AND THE AIR MASS ABOVE 12000 FEET DRYS WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES SUMMER TIME WEAK
AND SURFACE TRIGGERS OTHER THAN AFTERNOON HEATING APPEAR ABSENT.
POTENTIAL ENERGY LOW AND CAN SEE NO MORE THAN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
WITH DRYING ALOFT... RAIN CHANCES UNDER TEN PERCENT... PERHAPS
CLOSE TO ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AROUND 90. TUESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR 67. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY AND MINIMALLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES... HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MOSTLY LOWER 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES 66 TO 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES IS ZONAL THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARD NORTHWEST AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE ROCKIES AND
BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. THE QUESTION WILL BE... HOW
WARM? 850 MILLIBAR PRESSURE SURFACES FALL A BIT THURSDAY BEFORE
LEVELING OFF. SURFACE HEAT WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG
LESS SIDE OR OTHER TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE BECOMES. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PROMISING SUCH TROUGHING (WITH POTENTIAL MID TO UPPER 90S) FOR
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE DAY SIX OR SEVEN FORECAST... YET IT AS OF YET
REMAINS UNVERIFIED. SEE NO REASON TO TRUST MODELS NOW... AND WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NO HIGHER THAN 89 TO 94. LOW TEMPERATURES
66 TO 71.
CURRENT TIMING ON A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCE WOULD PLACE THE BEST RAIN CHANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MINIMAL PUSH WITH THIS TROUGH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. WINDS ALOFT MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST AND WEAK WITH NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF FOR CONVECTION. THUS OTHER THAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES LESS THAN TEN PERCENT... WITH
AROUND 25 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH... 20 PERCENT SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM MONDAY...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE
OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN A BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD DECK
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BIT MORE FAVORABLE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NC. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT KGSO AND
KINT AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AND SOME PREDAWN FOG/HAZE...STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AVIATION CONCERNS COULD COME ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/DJF
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL OHIO
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. A STRONG HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA
AS OF 02Z...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR STILL WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOL-SCT POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LESS WITH ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TRIED TO TIME IT ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY GETTING OUT OF NW PA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HRRR DID WELL TIMING THIS INTO THE CLE METRO AREA
AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THAT TO TIME IT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL GET A LITTLE PUSH NORTH MONDAY AND
HAVE CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/TS. IT WILL BE
WARMER AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF WITH HIGHS GETTING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. RIDGE REALLY BUILDS FOR MID WEEK AND
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL BE
UP TOO...SO IT WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT BREAKING DOWN MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND BY THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A ZONAL FLOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TO OUR
NORTH AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GLFMX MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CLOSED OFF BY
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SO SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...SIDING MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SATURDAY MODELS
REDEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH A
NORTHWEST GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST. BOTH MODELS HINTING AT CONVECTION/SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SATURDAY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AS BY THEN THE VERY WARM AIR RETURNS
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE LAST AREA OF SHOWERS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS KYNG THROUGH 07Z.
THERE MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH IT. OTHERWISE WE WILL MONITOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATOCU IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS RAIN.
THE FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. WE WILL
THEN HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF SITES AT THIS POINT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OF LESS MOST PLACES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ABE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1245 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY BROAD/FLAT UPR TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING FM THE ERN PAC TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION EARLY IN THE FCST
PERIOD AS THE TROF AXIS CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THEN
PATTERN WL UNDERGO READJUSTMENT DURING THE WEEK...SO THAT BY NEXT
WEEKEND THERE SHOULD BE A SPRAWLING UPR HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/PRAIRIE
PROVINCES OF CANADA...AND WITH UPR TROFS ALONG BOTH COASTS.
WANT TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT FCSTG TOO MUCH PCPN GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
WX...BUT PROGGED PATTEN CERTAINLY SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL
PCPN AMNTS. TEMPS WL START OUT WELL ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND BACK
CLOSER TO...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ABV...SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT. ADDED SMALL POPS OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 21Z IN CASE THEY MAKE IT. OTHERWISE...AN
ENERGETIC JET STREAK IS PUSHING A SHORTWAVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ND/SD BORDER AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AS THIS CONVECTION
ORGANIZES LATER TODAY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE CHALLENGING FORECAST STARTS OUT RIGHT OFF THE BAT
THIS EVENING AND ONLY BECOMES MORE COMPLEX THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT/MID-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW. THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
WEAKEN BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THAT
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT DOES PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND DO NOT ENTIRELY TRUST THAT EVERYTHING WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED BY 00Z. ADDED CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THINKING AT THIS TIME THAT THE MAIN
SHOW FOR TONIGHT WILL GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
THIS EVENING AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LOST AND A 40-50KT
LLJ DEVELOPS. TRACKING THIS MCS IS TRICKY DUE TO MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MOVING NORTHEAST...WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT). A ROUGH GUESS WOULD TRACK THE MCS TO THE ENE ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ...WHILE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OR
ESE TOWARDS THE INSTABILITY. ELEVATED CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG AT
09Z SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE INTO N-C AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH (15KFT)...SO THINK THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE BEEFY LLJ OVERHEAD
AND HEAVY RAINFALL (PWATS 1.7 INCHES AND K-INDEX OF 41). THE MCS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NE WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT.
MONDAY...THE MCS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
EXITING DURING THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LEFT
OVER FROM THE MCS WHICH SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS IN THE MORNING.
VERY WARM TEMPS AT 850MB AND THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PARTIALLY
ERODE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING WE
RECEIVE WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
PM HOURS. WILL HAVE A COOL FRONT PUSH INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...THOUGH ITS NOT CLEAR IF
CONVECTION CONTINUES ON THE TAIL OF THE MCS...OR REDEVELOPS ON
OTHER BOUNDARIES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KTS AND ML CAPES
OF 1500 J/KG SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP AND MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. CONVECTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER CONCERNS. WILL GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F NORTH TO UPPER
80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MON NGT THROUGH NEXT SUN. THE FLOW WITHIN THE BASE
OF THE BROAD UPR TROF ACRS THE NWRN PART OF THE CONUS WAS PRETTY
STG FOR JUNE...WITH UPR SPEED MAX OF NEARLY 150 KTS WORKING EWD
ACRS THE PAC NW. THE JET WORKING E COMBINED WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT
IN VERY ACTIVE WX ACRS THE FCST AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OSCILLATES N AND S FOR A COUPLE DAYS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SVR
CONVECTION ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RGN...WITH
QUESTION BEING WHETHER/WHEN INDIVIDUAL EVENTS AFFECT THE FCST
AREA. TRIED TO ADD A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO POPS...BUT WITH PCPN
CHCS GENERALLY TIED TO POSN OF FRONT AND THAT DEPENDING ON PRIOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT/MVMT...THERE WAS NO WAY TO REALLY GET ARND HAVING
SEVERAL PERIODS WITH HIGHER END CHC POPS AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE
AREA.
ONCE THE MAJOR SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF CROSSES THE RGN
MID-WEEK...A COUPLE DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BUT IT WL BE HARD TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
PCPN AS FCST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES...AND IN A LCN SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONVECTION FIRING ARND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING PLAINS UPR HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE EVENING PRODUCING SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 40 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. AFTER THE MORNING PCPN...MVFR CIGS
MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MVFR
CIGS AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT DROPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TDH
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS IS A BIT THICKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING OCCURRING FROM THE WEST. STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY GROUND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION AS
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP CONSIDERABLE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM AS THE
INVERSION BREAKS.
RAP TRENDS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF CURRENT TRENDS FROM
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER WHERE THE EDGE OF THE
CAP IS BEING SUGGESTED. A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP IS SUGGESTED THIS
EVENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHICH MAY
BE DUE TO CONVECTION. MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE NOW SUGGESTING
CONVECTION MAY BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA WITH THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR
POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/19. STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS
AROUND 15Z/18. SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KTS OR
HIGHER ARE EXPECTED. KDBQ MAY HAVE A CB VISIBLE IN THE SKY AFT
00Z/19 BUT IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE AIRPORT. ..08..
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 18...
MOLINE.........98 IN 1994
CEDAR RAPIDS...99 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........96 IN 1887
BURLINGTON.....97 IN 1953
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KVTN WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. MESO HIGHS AND LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI INTO WISCONSIN WERE ACROSS MN/WI. A
FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 50S OVER THE
IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE CONCERNS TODAY ARE MANY. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 18TH.
FIRST...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAP MODEL TRENDS THE MCS OVER
WISCONSIN WILL MISS THE CWFA. THUS THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE DRY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE MCS MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE INVERSION BREAKS.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.
THE NEXT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBLE HEADLINE FOR HEAT.
BASED ON THE SOURCE REGION FROM YESTERDAY AND THE WARM START THIS
MORNING MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 92 TO 96 RANGE ACROSS
THE AREA. FAVORED WARM AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE UPPER 90S. DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN DEW POINTS DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 64 TO 68 DEGREE RANGE. BASED ON
THIS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100
DEGREES.
CONSIDERABLE THOUGHT WENT INTO WHETHER OR NOT TO GO WITH HEAT
HEADLINES. FIRST...THE CRITERIA OF 100 WILL BE ACHIEVED OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...YESTERDAY WAS NOT OVERLY WARM
AND HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ACCUMULATIVE OVER SEVERAL DAYS.
SINCE TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF REALLY HOT WX THE DECISION
WAS TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEAT HEADLINES. HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED
TO BE REVISITED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY IF DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGHER THAN FCST.
TONIGHT...THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE CONVECTION FIRE. MCS AND
LIFT TOOLS SUGGEST NORTHERN IOWA NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AT THE EDGE
OF THE CAP. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD THEN TAKE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS EAST WITH PERHAPS A SLOW PROPAGATION DRIFT TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCHC POPS IN THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR WHICH IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP. MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH LOWS OF 70 TO 75. ..08..
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND THE NEXT WARM AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF MONDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS HEAT
AND WIND AS WE CONTINUE TO BAKE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THEN THINGS GET
INTERESTING WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A LATE DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z NAM THE
FASTEST AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE NAM BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA RIGHT AT PEAK HEATING. THUS IT
INDICATES THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE
AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE GIVEN THE NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
THE ECMWF INDICATES MORE OF A LATE EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
GFS IS IN BETWEEN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MARKED DIURNAL
IMPACT ON CAPE WITH INSTABILITY...AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT...
DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. GFS CAPES LOOK TOO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH
GIVEN ISSUES WITH OVERDONE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
COMMONPLACE OF LATE. WILL MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...BUT
AVOID DETAILS UNTIL THE PICTURE CLARIFIES.
GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER OF RECENT WEEKS...INTEREST IS QPF POTENTIAL IS
HIGH. FORECAST PW VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...THOUGH
AGAIN THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE GFS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE. GIVEN THE
NAM FORECAST...QPF COULD BE LOCALLY HIGH WITH 1.5 INCH PW VALUES AT
150% OF NORMAL...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT MIGHT
NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD AREA OF REALLY DECENT RAINFALL THAT
WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE DRYNESS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE AVERAGE
A LITTLE MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN A WEEK...OR ABOUT 4.5 INCHES FOR
THE MONTH...SO WE MAY DO LITTLE MORE THAN TREAD WATER IN THIS EVENT
IN MOST AREAS.
ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PHASING WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
CWA...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
THE GFS AND 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...
PUTTING US IN EASTERLY FLOW. COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
AND REFLECTED THESE CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS AND WIND FORECASTS.
WOLF
AVIATION...
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/19. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFT 14Z/18 AS THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 KTS EXPECTED. AFT 00Z/19 THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF VCTS
OCCURRING AT KDBQ. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF
THE 12Z TAFS AND SEE HOW POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER TODAY.
THUS VFR WX IS EXPECTED AFT 00Z/19. ..08..
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 18...
MOLINE.........98 IN 1994
CEDAR RAPIDS...99 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........96 IN 1887
BURLINGTON.....97 IN 1953
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-
HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-
LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-
MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-
WHITESIDE.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1153 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOL AND VARIABLY
CLOUDY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING HOT HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1150...STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS EXPECTED...BUT
ALSO HAS BROKEN UP IN MANY SPOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
SEEMS TO BE DUE TO A LITTLE BETTER AND DEEPER MIXING THANKS TO
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ALSO THE WEAK
ESE UPSLOPE IS SUPPORTING THE CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND. SO HAVE
ADJUSTED THE SKY AND SUBSEQUENTLY...THE TEMP GRIDS BASED ON THIS.
ALTHOUGH STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SUN IN MOST AREAS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
0900...THIS UPDATE FINE TUNES THE CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THIS
MORNING. FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR MODEL FOR CLOUDS...AS IT HANDLED
LOW STRATUS WELL ON SATURDAY AND IS DOING THE BEST WITH IT THIS
MORNING. STARTING TO SEE THE STRATUS THIN AND BREAK UP IN AREAS OF
TERRAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IT BREAK DOWN AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON. MAY NOT START SEEING BREAKS OF SUN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN ON THE COAST....BEFORE
IT ALL COMES BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION;
A LIGHT COOL AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ATTM SAT
PIX SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE MAINE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH TIME TODAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAY BURN OFF. FURTHER INLAND
MORE SUN EXPECTED SINCE THE LOW STRATUS WILL NOT REACH TO WELL
INLAND. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED THOUGH IN THE NORMAL
LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOL ALONG THE COAST
WITH WARMER TEMPS WELL INLAND. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. STRATUS
AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY BURN OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG
THE COAST AND WARMER WELL INLAND TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND BRING THE HEAT ALONG WITH IT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST STAYS COOLER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND ANY SUBTLE SNEAKY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WITH THE NWLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY
THE MID COAST OF MAINE. IN ADDITION THERE COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND ON WEDNESDAY AS PER LATEST ECMWF WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...HIGHS IN THE 90S SEEMS
ACCEPTABLE FOR MOST AS THE PATTERN FAVORS IT WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...850MB TEMPS AROUND +20C...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BETWEEN 577 AND 580 DM.
AS FAR AS POPS GO FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE/S A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...THE BALANCE OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS DOES
THURSDAY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPOT
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN VERY WARM. TEMPS MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTHERN
MAINE INTO SOUTHERN NH. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE CAA REGIME. MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY QUITE GOOD ON
FORECASTING A COOL RAINMAKER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
INCREASED POPS A BIT THEN BUT IT/S STILL PRETTY FAR OUT AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR
TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AS WELL...WELL INLAND MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STRATUS THAT WILL MOVE WELL INLAND. ON TUESDAY THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON OVER MOST
AREAS WITH THE COASTAL LOCATIONS BEING THE LAST TO IMPROVE.
LONG TERM...SOME LOCAL IFR ON FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE BAYS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES.
LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
903 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOL AND VARIABLY
CLOUDY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING HOT HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900...THIS UPDATE FINE TUNES THE CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THIS
MORNING. FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR MODEL FOR CLOUDS...AS IT HANDLED
LOW STRATUS WELL ON SATURDAY AND IS DOING THE BEST WITH IT THIS
MORNING. STARTING TO SEE THE STRATUS THIN AND BREAK UP IN AREAS OF
TERRAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IT BREAK DOWN AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON. MAY NOT START SEEING BREAKS OF SUN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN ON THE COAST....BEFORE
IT ALL COMES BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION;
A LIGHT COOL AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ATTM SAT
PIX SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE MAINE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH TIME TODAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAY BURN OFF. FURTHER INLAND
MORE SUN EXPECTED SINCE THE LOW STRATUS WILL NOT REACH TO WELL
INLAND. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED THOUGH IN THE NORMAL
LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOL ALONG THE COAST
WITH WARMER TEMPS WELL INLAND. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. STRATUS
AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY BURN OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG
THE COAST AND WARMER WELL INLAND TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND BRING THE HEAT ALONG WITH IT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST STAYS COOLER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND ANY SUBTLE SNEAKY
BACKDOOR FRONTS WITH THE NWLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY
THE MID COAST OF MAINE. IN ADDITION THERE COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND ON WEDNESDAY AS PER LATEST ECMWF WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...HIGHS IN THE 90S SEEMS
ACCEPTABLE FOR MOST AS THE PATTERN FAVORS IT WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...850MB TEMPS AROUND +20C...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BETWEEN 577 AND 580 DM.
AS FAR AS POPS GO FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE/S A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...THE BALANCE OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS DOES
THURSDAY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPOT
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN VERY WARM. TEMPS MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTHERN
MAINE INTO SOUTHERN NH. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE CAA REGIME. MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY QUITE GOOD ON
FORECASTING A COOL RAINMAKER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
INCREASED POPS A BIT THEN BUT IT/S STILL PRETTY FAR OUT AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR
TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AS WELL...WELL INLAND MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STRATUS THAT WILL MOVE WELL INLAND. ON TUESDAY THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON OVER MOST
AREAS WITH THE COASTAL LOCATIONS BEING THE LAST TO IMPROVE.
LONG TERM...SOME LOCAL IFR ON FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE BAYS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES.
LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH A
110-120 KT 250-300 MB JET THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO N CNTRL NEBRASKA
FROM LOW PRES NEAR WINNIPEG. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NW MN
THROUGH WRN WI INTO NRN IL. A LARGE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NE SOUTH
DAKOTA HAS MOVED THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLOW AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WERE LINED UP FROM E CNTRL THROUGH
SRN WI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ENDING OVER CNTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND
10Z AND OVER THE EAST BY 12Z. HOWEVER...SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY
REDEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE NW MN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WAS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
THIN OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS TO
AROUND 80 AND MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK AND THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE REGION EXPECT FORCING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST TSRA SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...AIDED BY LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND SPREAD INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
STRONG 500 MB WINDS(TO 80 KT) LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 60-70 KT RANGE WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS BEFORE
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR LINES.
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WOULD BE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS...PER SPC. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
TUESDAY...
WE WILL START THIS PERIOD WITH W-SW FLOW ALOFT...IN
BETWEEN A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN/OH RIVER
VALLEYS AND A PROGRESSIVE LOW OVER MT. AT THE SFC...THE EXITING LOW
SHOULD BE JUST NE OF JAMES BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR /OR JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR/
THROUGH THE NEXT LOW SET UP OVER S CENTRAL SD. EXPECT WARMER AIR TO
SURGE INTO THE S AND E SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT PUSHES N OF LAKE MI TO OR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR 00Z WEDNESDAY /850MB TEMPS OF
18-22C/. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TS TO SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST LIKELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE MT LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO N CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS LOOK TO BE
FOLLOWING 3 SEPARATE IDEAS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE
FIRST BEING A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/NAM/SREF SOLUTION. THE OLDER
17/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WHILE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT SLOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE CANADIAN NEVER REALLY CATCHING
UP UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE CANADIAN WILL NOT
BE HIGHLY UTILIZED BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. BACK AT THE
SFC...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH BELOW 70F TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES WELL NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY /35-40KT 850MB WINDS AND TEMPS OF 15-20C/...IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW SHIFTING ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR/MN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF BEING ONE OF THE
DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE SFC LOW IS ON THE NW OR SLOWER SIDE. THIS
DOES MAKE TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT...WITH IT LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND BE
MAINLY E OF THE CWA BY 06Z THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SFC
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF OUR WEATHER WILL
BE DOMINATED BY THE LINGERING 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON
BAY/ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WITH BE COOLER W-NW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGING 8-10C THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY FROM CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING INTO PLENTY OF DRY AIR AOA 800MB
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN RH VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT
INTERIOR WEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AS
THE TIME NEARS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE S STATES WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH MT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY EXITING. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THEN.
THE CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE 500MB RIDGE UP THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA BY MONDAY. EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPS...AND THE RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SD/NE SATURDAY ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
AS 500MB WAVE PUSHES IN. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO PRINT OUT
PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...IT IS MAINLY ALONG THE WI BORDER...AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NEAR TO KSAW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH
14Z. AFTER THE HRA END...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LO CLDS/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE NE FM
WI...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH UPSLOPE S WIND. MORE SHRA/TS ARE PSBL IN
THE AFTN...BUT ONCE AGAIN DID NOT INCLUDE EXPLICIT TSRA DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS. VIGOROUS DRYING ALOFT SHOULD END
THE SHRA/TS THREAT W-E LATE THIS AFTN AND ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS EVNG. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
RELATIVELY SMALL SECTIONS OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
COOLER LS WATERS. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH NE
WILL CONSOLIDATE N-NW OF LS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CROSSING JAMES
BAY AND INTO QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE /MAINLY ACROSS S PORTIONS OF LS/. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP ACROSS LS...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SD/NE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW SHOULD CROSS N MN/W
LS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER LS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SINKING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS WEAKENING OVR THE LWR SUSQ VLY.
THIS AREA OF -RA SHOULD EXIT THE SE ZONES BY 15-16Z. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE CLOUDY BUT DRY THRU LATE MORNING. BINOVC SHOULD LEAD
TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVR WRN PA WITH ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LAURELS BY EARLY AFTN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 805 AM...BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MOVG
INTO THE SUSQ VLY AT 12Z. PCPN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN PCPN BAND IS ASSOC WITH A
STRIPE OF 850MB THETA-E/MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT/SFC
DEWPT GRADIENT. HIGH RES MDL DATA SHOWS THIS AREA OF LIGHT QPF
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD TWD THE ERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY 15Z.
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVR
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATM STABLE. SREF DATA SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS CONFINED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND HI RES HRRR DEVELOPS SCT
AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR WRN PA BY 18Z. MID-UPPER
FORCING REMAINS VERY WEAK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE
EVE...AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NWD FM THE OH RVR VLY. THERE
ARE A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVG THRU ALOFT BUT OVERALL XPECT
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN CVRG/DISSIPATE
AFTER DARK.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREV DAYS...ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABV 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PRECIP SHUD BECOME MORE SCARCE. BIGGEST ISSUE IS HOW
MUCH IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WE SEE FIRE UP TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
GFS HAS VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SURGING INTO THE REGION WHICH
USUALLY ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP TO CONVECTION. THE NAM IS LESS
WARM ALOFT ALLOWING FOR MORE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SREF/GEFS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE AND MAINLY CONFINED THEM TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT I STILL
HAVE A HARD TIME WE WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE MUCH ACTION
DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED/THU LOOK VERY WARM TO HOT AND QUITE MUGGY. HEAT INDICES COULD
NUDGE 100 OVER SERN ZONES FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT INDICES ARE NOT YET INDICATED. IF TEMPS
OR DEWPOINTS GET NUDGED UP A BIT HOWEVER...WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH THE SEASON`S FIRST HEATWAVE AND ADVISORY HEADLINES.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED THANKS TO VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS WHICH ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY
WHEN MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
PICTURE.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS OUR UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS
IMPOSSIBLE SO HEDGED TOWARD LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
INTERESTING ECMWF DEVELOPMENT WOULD GIVE US A WIDESPREAD CHILLY
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. STILL FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THE PATTERN
IT IS PAINTING LOOKS LIKE ANYTHING BUT THE FIRST DAYS OF THE
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE.
BEEN WATCHING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN OH...ACTIVITY NOW
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD STAY SOUTH OF ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS.
ADDED IN SOME FOG FOR TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER...
BUT WINDS MAY LIMIT FOG FORMATION.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BEEN WATCHING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR SINCE I CAME
IN AT MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS NOT REAL WARM OR
HUMID...SO ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.
VERY WINDY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT IPT. ALSO INTERESTING THAT
EACH DAY OF THE LAST 3 DAYS IS COOLER THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.
ANYWAY...EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP AGAIN AFTER
DARK.
MUCH OF THE PERIOD TUE INTO THU SHOULD BE DRY...MAINLY VFR...AND
ON THE HOT AND HUMID SIDE...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.
COLD FRONT FOR LATE THU...STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND NOT SO CLEAR CUT...PATTERN CHANGES
BACK TO HAVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NE. NORMALLY WOULD EXPECT
COOLER TEMPS. IN THIS CASE...A LOT OF VARIATION...COULD SEE A
SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSS. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MOVG INTO THE SUSQ VLY AT 12Z. PCPN IS
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN PCPN BAND IS ASSOC WITH A STRIPE OF 850MB THETA-E/MSTR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT/SFC DEWPT GRADIENT. HIGH RES MDL
DATA SHOWS THIS AREA OF LIGHT QPF CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EWD TWD THE ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY 15Z.
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVR
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATM STABLE. SREF DATA SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS CONFINED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND HI RES HRRR DEVELOPS SCT
AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR WRN PA BY 18Z. MID-UPPER
FORCING REMAINS VERY WEAK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE
EVE...AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NWD FM THE OH RVR VLY. THERE
ARE A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVG THRU ALOFT BUT OVERALL XPECT
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN CVRG/DISSIPATE
AFTER DARK.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREV DAYS...ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABV 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PRECIP SHUD BECOME MORE SCARCE. BIGGEST ISSUE IS HOW
MUCH IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WE SEE FIRE UP TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
GFS HAS VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SURGING INTO THE REGION WHICH
USUALLY ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP TO CONVECTION. THE NAM IS LESS
WARM ALOFT ALLOWING FOR MORE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SREF/GEFS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE AND MAINLY CONFINED THEM TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT I STILL
HAVE A HARD TIME WE WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE MUCH ACTION
DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED/THU LOOK VERY WARM TO HOT AND QUITE MUGGY. HEAT INDICES COULD
NUDGE 100 OVER SERN ZONES FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT INDICES ARE NOT YET INDICATED. IF TEMPS
OR DEWPOINTS GET NUDGED UP A BIT HOWEVER...WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH THE SEASON`S FIRST HEATWAVE AND ADVISORY HEADLINES.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED THANKS TO VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS WHICH ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY
WHEN MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
PICTURE.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS OUR UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS
IMPOSSIBLE SO HEDGED TOWARD LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
INTERESTING ECMWF DEVELOPMENT WOULD GIVE US A WIDESPREAD CHILLY
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. STILL FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THE PATTERN
IT IS PAINTING LOOKS LIKE ANYTHING BUT THE FIRST DAYS OF THE
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE.
BEEN WATCHING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN OH...ACTIVITY NOW
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD STAY SOUTH OF ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS.
ADDED IN SOME FOG FOR TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER...
BUT WINDS MAY LIMIT FOG FORMATION.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BEEN WATCHING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR SINCE I CAME
IN AT MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS NOT REAL WARM OR
HUMID...SO ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.
VERY WINDY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT IPT. ALSO INTERESTING THAT
EACH DAY OF THE LAST 3 DAYS IS COOLER THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.
ANYWAY...EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP AGAIN AFTER
DARK.
MUCH OF THE PERIOD TUE INTO THU SHOULD BE DRY...MAINLY VFR...AND
ON THE HOT AND HUMID SIDE...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.
COLD FRONT FOR LATE THU...STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND NOT SO CLEAR CUT...PATTERN CHANGES
BACK TO HAVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NE. NORMALLY WOULD EXPECT
COOLER TEMPS. IN THIS CASE...A LOT OF VARIATION...COULD SEE A
SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSS. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS LOOK CONSIDERABLY OVERDONE IN
REGARD TO THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY CONSIDERING THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO BE QUITE WEAK. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW SOME WEAK VORT
ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR...GSP WRF AND RAP ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND CONTAIN IT OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS. I DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FIELD TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SC/GA
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...WIND/MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS LOOK GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ALL OF THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO. POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO
OUR NORTH...BUT OTHER THAN THAT EVERY THING IS QUIET. I BUMPED UP
MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 IN LIGHT OF THE LINGERING STRATOCU AND
WARMER GUIDANCE. HAVE YET TO SEE ANY FOG DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...AND
ITS LOOKING LIKE THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE ANY WILL BE THE FAR
WESTERN NC MT VALLEYS. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE OHIO VALLEY
SHORT WAVE....BUT ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE. THIS SHOULD HELP ERODE THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS. AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF
SHORE BRINGING SLY TO SWLY LOW LVL FLOW BACK OVER THE CWFA. THIS
WILL BRING GREATER AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
SOUTH WHICH SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY CWFA WIDE.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AND POSSIBLY THE
ESCARPMENT WITH ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH. RISING THICKNESSES WILL BRING
HIGHER MAX TEMPS...WITH VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE MTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TUE-WED...WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E.
THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN S-SE LOW LVL FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED AFTN-EVE CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...BOTH
DAYS. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVG WITH TUE HIGHS NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...L-M80S MTN VLYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M-U60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WITH U50S-L60S MTN VLYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E US BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU-FRI AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK FROM CENTRL CANADA AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF UPPER TROF DIGGING
OVER THE NE US FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NW. IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT MAY WASH
OUT N OF THE AREA SO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVG...WITH
BELOW CLIMO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THRU TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED STRATOCU IS STILL STREAMING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC MTS
AND DOWN INTO THE PIEDMONT AS OF 1030Z. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CU
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AND ESCARPMENT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH AND TS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ONCE SFC
HEATING INCREASES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER KAVL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KHKY CARRY MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND S TO SWLY THRU THE EVENING WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING
CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED E OF MTNS THRU
THU...WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY AND VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
846 AM PDT Mon Jun 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong disturbance will bring a good chance of rain to the
region Monday along with gusty winds. Scattered showers Tuesday
will give way to drier and much warmer weather Wednesday and
Thursday. Unsettled weather will return by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning Update: We have went ahead and increased PoPs for a
majority of E WA and N ID through the remainder of the afternoon.
Radar continues to quickly fill in between Omak and Pullman as
large scale ascent along and ahead of a potent shortwave trough
currently in the vicinity of Yakima, WA. There are a few
mesoscale bands of showers pivoting around the main shortwave and
oriented like spokes on a bicycle wheel. Each band appears to
be enhanced by micro-scale circulations best viewed on the radar
loop. One near Chewelah and a second southeast of Omak. Rainfall
rates under these bands will approach 0.20/hr. Otherwise, most
locations will receive around a tenth or less through early
afternoon.
The shortwave is expected to reach the ID/MT border around 00z and
we should see some breaks in the clouds from W and N toward the
SE. Convective temperatures per 12z KOTX sounding were only 64F
and with many locations like already in the mid 50`s, it will
not take much to get showers and isolated thunderstorms firing
this afternoon once the large scale lift passes through. Still a
low confidence forecast on the amount of clearing across the
eastern third of the CWA and exactly the degree of surface based
cape we are able to generate. HRRR would support the idea of
thunder across the north early this afternoon...tracking south
early this evening where the best chance for sun-breaks and deeper
moisture exist. Consequently, we have maintained the threat for
small hail and heavy rain with the strongest cells.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold upper low will drop southeast into Eastern
Washington and North Idaho today. Increased instability will lead
to increased shower activity over the area. Isolated tsra is also
expected between 18z Monday - 03z Tuesday mainly along and east of a
line from Colville to Spokane to Pullman. Small hail is expected
with thunderstorms that develop. The chance of a storm impacting a
TAF site is very low so only a CB cloud group was mentioned in the
TAF forecasts. The low will pull away from the area tonight with
showers decreasing in the evening. Winds will remain gusty at the
TAF sites today but speeds will be a little lower compared to
yesterday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 59 45 64 47 72 49 / 90 30 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 56 46 61 46 70 46 / 90 50 40 20 0 0
Pullman 56 42 62 41 73 44 / 100 30 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 64 48 69 50 79 53 / 100 20 10 10 0 0
Colville 62 48 67 48 76 49 / 90 30 40 30 10 10
Sandpoint 55 46 60 44 71 44 / 100 70 60 30 10 10
Kellogg 50 43 55 43 72 47 / 100 80 60 20 10 0
Moses Lake 72 49 73 50 79 52 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 68 51 70 52 78 55 / 20 0 10 0 0 0
Omak 69 46 72 48 77 50 / 80 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
217 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST PER WV SAT IMAGERY. CU FIELD SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WEAK STRATOCU FIELD HAS
PUSHED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS TODAY WHICH HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL MIXING. THUS
THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. WINDS ACROSS
THE ARCO DESERT HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY.
WINDS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WARNED AREA SHOULD INCREASE AS CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. HRRR MODEL INDICATES PEAK SPEEDS OCCURING BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWIFT DROPOFF DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
TROUGH AXIS KICKS PAST EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING BUT LEAVES BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PACNW. SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH TROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT JET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH SO WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN. LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY BUT WILL LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS AFTER CURRENT WIND EVENT
IS OVER.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF PACNW COAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS CENTER
OF UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND...LEAVING
EASTERN IDAHO ON THE FRINGE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH
DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED RANGE. OVERALL MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE LATE
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. ANY REAL THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MONTANA
AND WYOMING BORDERS. KEYES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO MONTANA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOSER TO
THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN JUST THE
MONTANA BORDER TUESDAY. THE STORY IS THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE WINDS
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF ZONES 409/410/411/412 ARE STILL
VALID THROUGH 9PM. WE WILL LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW BUT NO
RED FLAG ISSUES AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP DESPITE GUSTY WINDS.
MIDWEEK WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WE WILL
SEE RAPID DRYING EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO EXPECT POOR
NIGHTTIME RECOVERY AT RIDGETOP. WHILE MORE PRECISE DETAILS ON WHERE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FORMING BY THE WEEKEND...IT
DOES APPEAR A DISTINCT PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHWEST/MONSOON FLOW
IS COMING. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ410-411.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-019-021>023-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ409-412.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH A
110-120 KT 250-300 MB JET THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO N CNTRL NEBRASKA
FROM LOW PRES NEAR WINNIPEG. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NW MN
THROUGH WRN WI INTO NRN IL. A LARGE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NE SOUTH
DAKOTA HAS MOVED THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLOW AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WERE LINED UP FROM E CNTRL THROUGH
SRN WI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ENDING OVER CNTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND
10Z AND OVER THE EAST BY 12Z. HOWEVER...SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY
REDEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE NW MN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WAS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
THIN OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS TO
AROUND 80 AND MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK AND THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE REGION EXPECT FORCING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST TSRA SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...AIDED BY LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND SPREAD INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
STRONG 500 MB WINDS(TO 80 KT) LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 60-70 KT RANGE WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS BEFORE
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR LINES.
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WOULD BE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS...PER SPC. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
TUESDAY...
WE WILL START THIS PERIOD WITH W-SW FLOW ALOFT...IN
BETWEEN A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN/OH RIVER
VALLEYS AND A PROGRESSIVE LOW OVER MT. AT THE SFC...THE EXITING LOW
SHOULD BE JUST NE OF JAMES BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR /OR JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR/
THROUGH THE NEXT LOW SET UP OVER S CENTRAL SD. EXPECT WARMER AIR TO
SURGE INTO THE S AND E SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT PUSHES N OF LAKE MI TO OR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR 00Z WEDNESDAY /850MB TEMPS OF
18-22C/. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TS TO SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST LIKELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE MT LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO N CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS LOOK TO BE
FOLLOWING 3 SEPARATE IDEAS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE
FIRST BEING A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/NAM/SREF SOLUTION. THE OLDER
17/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WHILE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT SLOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE CANADIAN NEVER REALLY CATCHING
UP UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE CANADIAN WILL NOT
BE HIGHLY UTILIZED BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. BACK AT THE
SFC...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH BELOW 70F TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES WELL NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY /35-40KT 850MB WINDS AND TEMPS OF 15-20C/...IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW SHIFTING ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR/MN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF BEING ONE OF THE
DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE SFC LOW IS ON THE NW OR SLOWER SIDE. THIS
DOES MAKE TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT...WITH IT LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND BE
MAINLY E OF THE CWA BY 06Z THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SFC
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF OUR WEATHER WILL
BE DOMINATED BY THE LINGERING 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON
BAY/ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WITH BE COOLER W-NW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGING 8-10C THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY FROM CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING INTO PLENTY OF DRY AIR AOA 800MB
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN RH VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT
INTERIOR WEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AS
THE TIME NEARS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE S STATES WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH MT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY EXITING. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THEN.
THE CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE 500MB RIDGE UP THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA BY MONDAY. EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPS...AND THE RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SD/NE SATURDAY ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
AS 500MB WAVE PUSHES IN. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO PRINT OUT
PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...IT IS MAINLY ALONG THE WI BORDER...AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO THE TAF SITES TO INCLUDE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MORE -SHRA COME THROUGH TUE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
LATE IN THE MORNING AND WENT PROB30 POPS AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
RELATIVELY SMALL SECTIONS OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
COOLER LS WATERS. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH NE
WILL CONSOLIDATE N-NW OF LS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CROSSING JAMES
BAY AND INTO QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE /MAINLY ACROSS S PORTIONS OF LS/. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP ACROSS LS...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SD/NE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW SHOULD CROSS N MN/W
LS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER LS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SINKING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SURFACE WARM FRONTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE SCHC OF POPS
ACRS THE SLV AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
ON TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A STRONG DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE HGHT FIELDS ACRS
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...FAST WESTERLY FLW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MID RH
AND WEAK OMEGA FIELDS WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT...AND MAY PRODUCE A VERY SCHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS THE SLV.
MEANWHILE...SE ANTICYCLONIC FLW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF MAINE WL CONT TO ADVECT IN LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT ACRS
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. NAM12/BTV4 AND RAP ALL SHOW SFC TO 800MB RH
PROFILES INCREASING AFT 04Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME INDICATION OF
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT. WL MENTION CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/EASTERN VT/SLK TO
M60S CPV/SLV. CPV/SLV SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED BL...WHICH WL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...
...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AFTN/EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDNESDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL REDEVELOP ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PUSH TWD
THE NE CONUS ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS BELT OF ACTIVE WESTERLY WINDS
LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY LATE WEDS. HOWEVER...AS STRONG LLVL WAA
DEVELOPS ON TUES AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED 5H VORTS SLIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NW FLW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUES. THINKING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION AND SVR POTENTIAL. FIRST LINE WL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WL ENTER OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z TUES. THIS
WL TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE IN STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY SE
MARITIME AIR ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. BEST INSTABILITY BTWN 12Z-15Z
WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 600-900 J/KG. FEEL
INITIAL LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WL ADD LLVL MOISTURE AND BE THE
LEADING EDGE TO A MUCH MORE HUMID/WARMER AIRMASS FOR THE AFTN HRS.
MEANWHILE....SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DEVELOPS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
TUES AFTN...AND DIVES SE TWD THE SLV AND OUR NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY
TUES EVENING. THE BEST ULVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND
WESTERLY JET WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH BEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NAM/GFS SHOW 0-6KM SHEAR PARAMETERS BTWN 35 AND 40
KNOTS...WHILE CAPE VALUES INCREASE BTWN 2400 AND 2800 J/KG. BIG
QUESTION WL BE IF CONVECTION TRACKS SE INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA OR
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHERE THE WESTERLY
FLW IS THE STRONGEST. GIVEN...THE SVR PARAMETERS IF ANY CONVECTION
CROSSES THE BORDER...THE POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS...WITH SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LIKELY.
GIVEN...THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/TRACK OF
CONVECTIVE VORT...WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SCHC CENTRAL...AND NIL POPS SOUTH. ALSO...WL MENTION A BRIEF
STATEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN HWO. TEMPS
TUES WL BE TRICKY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT THINKING NEAR 80F
EASTERN VT TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV. VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED
ON TUES INTO WEDS...AS DWPT TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONT WITH AREAS OF HAZY. LOWS WL RANGE FROM U50S NEK TO NEAR
70F SLV/CPV.
WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD ACRS OUR CWA...WITH AXIS
OF WESTERLY SHIFTING INTO CANADA AND NORTHERN MAINE. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTN COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIVE SE TWD THE NEK ON WEDS AFTN...IN THE
NW FLW ALOFT. GIVEN...DEEP SUBSIDENCE/CAP ACRS MOST OF OUR CWA...WL
NOT MENTION ANY POPS...BUT KEEP SCHC ACRS NORTHERN VT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY WL BE THE
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON WEDS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE
NEAR 20C WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 25C...WHICH WITH GOOD MIXING PRE
SOUNDING DATA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U80S MTNS TO M90S VALLEYS. SEE
CLIMO SECTION BLW FOR RECORDS. INTERESTING...WHEN VIEWING THE CAPE
PROFILES ON WEDS...SHOWS LOTS OF CAPE THRU 18Z WITH VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG...BUT AS MIXING INCREASES AND SFC DWPTS DROP FROM NEAR
70F BACK INTO THE 50S/L60S...CAPE VALUES DROP BTWN 500-1000
J/KG...AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT ANTICIPATED ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THUR...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. HOT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP
90 DEGREES...WITH PORTIONS OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY REACHING INTO THE MID 90S. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO FALL DURING
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...AND TIMING OF FROPA DOES NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND FOR ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY...SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER MONDAY DUE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...GULF OF MAINE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WITH
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS HAS MADE
IT INTO RUT/MPV UNDER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH SFC FLOW. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN THE
STRATUS LAYER LIFTS...WHICH DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. HAVE WENT WITH SCT028 ONCE STRATUS LAYER LIFTS WITH
VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS (UP TO 25
KTS) CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
FOR TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH VFR
AND GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS 17-22KTS). WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THINK MVFR STRATUS AT RUT/MPV IS LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY JUNE 19TH-21ST WILL FEATURE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. THE FOLLOWING ARE A LIST OF RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES WITH LONG-
ESTABLISHED CLIMATE RECORDS.
JUNE 19TH:
BTV 100 (1995) / 78 (1896)
MSS 94 (1955) / 73 (1995)
MPV 95 (1995) / 67 (2001)
IV4 98 (1995) / 69 (1994)
MMN 78 (1995) / 61 (1995)
JUNE 20TH:
BTV 94 (1988) / 78 (1893)
MSS 91 (1953) / 71 (1953)
MPV 89 (1953) / 67 (1976)
1V4 97 (1995) / 70 (1976)
MMN 77 (1995) / 65 (1983)
JUNE 21ST:
BTV 97 (1941) / 72 (1893)
MSS 95 (1953) / 70 (1953)
MPV 92 (1953) / 66 (1953)
1V4 93 (1941) / 69 (1923)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 423 AM MONDAY...COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AT THE KVSF
(SPRINGFIELD VT) ASOS ARE KEEPING OBSERVATIONS FROM BEING
TRANSMITTED. FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TONIGHT THE STORM TRACK SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS OF 2250Z. TIMED HOURLY POPS WITH THIS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 02Z OR SO THEN MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWING PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT EVEN THOSE SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND CLEAR OUT
DURING EARLY TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER NRN LAKE MI THAT
IS MOVING ESE. MODELS PROJECTING THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
LOWER MI EARLY TONIGHT...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE LOOKING AT THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...NAM AND SREF AS TO HOW THIS WILL PROGRESS. HRRR
WANTS TO WEAKEN THIS COMPLEX BEFORE IMPACTING THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE OTHER MODELS WANT TO MOVE IT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME POPS OVER LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
COMPLEX HAS TRAVELED A LONG WAY AND HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY IN
TERMS OF STRENGTH. WILL MOVE THIS COMPLEX EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW FAR TO TAKE CATEGORICAL POPS THOUGH. WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED. RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOULD KEEP ANY OVERNIGHT COMPLEXES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME HIGH/DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THEREFORE DID NOT
CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA OUT OVERNIGHT. MILD TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO BREAK OUT EITHER.
MODELS CONSISTENT ON TAKING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TS WITH THIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT SLOWS WE COULD GET SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST BUT FOR NOW WILL GO DRY.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE HEAT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH MORE MODERATE/SEASONAL TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOL AIR DOWN ACROSS THE LAKES AND THEN BOTH MODELS TEND TO DIG THE
UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SSE WITH THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTING WEST...WILL
BRING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. MONDAY MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BUT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DEWPOINTS ARE 65 TO 70 SO MAYBE A MOOT
POINT. CONVECTION ACROSS SRN LOWER MI HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TURN SOUTH TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. TIMED THE
CONVECTION INTO TOL AT 1830Z. WILL CONTINUE IN TEMPO GROUP THRU
21Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED
HRRR GUIDANCE AND PUT VCTS IN TERMINALS FROM 20Z THROUGH 00Z. WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL TRENDS TO DOMINATE AFTER 00Z SO WILL GO WITH A
COUPLE HOURS OF A VFR BROKEN CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE EVENING AS
DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SSW WINDS REMAIN AT 10KTS OVERNIGHT
BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT CONVECTION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPINESS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE FROM PASSING TSRA WILL
CALM DOWN DURING EARLY EVENING.
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT S WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND BECOME SSW. WINDS OVER THE LAKE
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR TUE AFTERNOON DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
DUE TO THE TEMP DIFFERENCE WITH THE LAKE. SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY UNDER 15 KNOTS INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH INTO OHIO
FOR WED THEN SHIFTS EAST THU.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE THU AND
WINDS VEER TO NW THEN N FOR FRI BUT WIND SPEEDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LAKE SAT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ABE/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ENTRENCHED ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EAST OF A WARM FNT ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...LOW
CLOUDS ARE STILL BLANKETING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN PTNS OF THE
CWA PER 18Z VIS SATL IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATM STABLE OVER
THESE AREAS...WITH VERY LIMITED/ISOLATED PCPN EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD. WILL LOWER POPS ACRS THIS AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE EVE.
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL SHOWS AIRMASS OVR WRN PA /ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES/ IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST OF JST-DUJ LINE...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WEAK MID-LVL WINDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
AND STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE-TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...DRIVEN
LARGELY BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN INTO THE EVE HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THE MESO MODEL DATA HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL THUS FAR IN DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA/COVERAGE. THE WILD CARD WILL BE UPSTREAM
MCS CROSSING XTRME SW LAKE ERIE. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THIS TSTM
COMPLEX OUT OF OUR CWA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT DIVES SEWD
ACRS NERN OH THRU 00Z.
CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP MINS IN THE 60S IN MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FNT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD THRU THE
UPPER OH VLY. TEMPS WILL WARM ALOFT AND REACH +8-9C AT 700MB BY
00Z WED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE EARLY IN THE DAY...AND
MDL DATA SUGGESTS DIURNAL AIRMASS CONVECTION ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LIMITED
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO STAY MOSTLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MORE PROBABLE NEAR THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OF THE RIDGES/HIGHER MTN TERRAIN. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY /SFC DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO 60S/ WILL RESULT IN HAZE
AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED/THU LOOK VERY WARM TO HOT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES. HEAT
INDICES LOOK TO NUDGE 100F OVER SERN ZONES FOR A TIME EACH
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR
WED/THU AS EVENT GETS A LITTLE NEARER.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED THANKS TO VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS WHICH ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY...WHEN MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE PICTURE - INTRODUCING SCT TSTMS TO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE FLOW
INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS
RANGE...SO MAINTAINED HEDGED TOWARD LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY GAIN CONFIDENCE IN
POSSIBILITY OF A CHILLY RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT /NW/ AND SUNDAY /SE/.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIS SATL SHOWS AIR MASS OVR WRN PA HAS DESTABILIZED ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCT TSTMS. RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION IS
POSSIBLE AT JST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS.
LOW CLOUDS /LOW END MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT AGL/ CONTINUE TO BLANKET
MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN PA AS OF 21Z. XPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES. SREF OUTPUT AND
LATEST 18Z MDL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE
THE LOWEST CIGS...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AM...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. ISOLD
TSRA COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...MOST AIRFIELDS SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSS. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ENTRENCHED ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING A COOLER AIRMASS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EAST OF A WARM FNT ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...LOW
CLOUDS ARE STILL BLANKETING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN PTNS OF THE
CWA PER 18Z VIS SATL IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATM STABLE OVER
THESE AREAS...WITH VERY LIMITED/ISOLATED PCPN EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD. WILL LOWER POPS ACRS THIS AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE EVE.
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL SHOWS AIRMASS OVR WRN PA /ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES/ IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST OF JST-DUJ LINE...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WEAK MID-LVL WINDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
AND STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE-TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...DRIVEN
LARGELY BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN INTO THE EVE HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THE MESO MODEL DATA HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL THUS FAR IN DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA/COVERAGE. THE WILD CARD WILL BE UPSTREAM
MCS CROSSING XTRME SW LAKE ERIE. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THIS TSTM
COMPLEX OUT OF OUR CWA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT DIVES SEWD
ACRS NERN OH THRU 00Z.
CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP MINS IN THE 60S IN MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FNT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD THRU THE
UPPER OH VLY. TEMPS WILL WARM ALOFT AND REACH +8-9C AT 700MB BY
00Z WED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE EARLY IN THE DAY...AND
MDL DATA SUGGESTS DIURNAL AIRMASS CONVECTION ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LIMITED
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO STAY MOSTLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MORE PROBABLE NEAR THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OF THE RIDGES/HIGHER MTN TERRAIN. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY /SFC DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO 60S/ WILL RESULT IN HAZE
AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED/THU LOOK VERY WARM TO HOT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES. HEAT
INDICES LOOK TO NUDGE 100F OVER SERN ZONES FOR A TIME EACH
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR
WED/THU AS EVENT GETS A LITTLE NEARER.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED THANKS TO VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS WHICH ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY...WHEN MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE PICTURE - INTRODUCING SCT TSTMS TO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE FLOW
INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS
RANGE...SO MAINTAINED HEDGED TOWARD LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY GAIN CONFIDENCE IN
POSSIBILITY OF A CHILLY RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT /NW/ AND SUNDAY /SE/.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIS SATL SHOWS AIRMASS OVR WRN PA HAS DESTABILIZED ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH/VCTS AT BFD AND
JST BUT POINT PROBS ARE LOW.
LOW CLOUDS /LOW END MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT AGL/ WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET
MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN PA THRU THIS EVE. XPECT CIGS TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAINTAINED AT MOST TAF SITES.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW WITH CONDS EVENTUALLY
BCMG VFR BY LATER TUE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSS. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ENTRENCHED ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING A COOLER AIRMASS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EAST OF A WARM FNT ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...LOW
CLOUDS ARE STILL BLANKETING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN PTNS OF THE
CWA PER 18Z VIS SATL IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATM STABLE OVER
THESE AREAS...WITH VERY LIMITED/ISOLATED PCPN EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD. WILL LOWER POPS ACRS THIS AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE EVE.
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL SHOWS AIRMASS OVR WRN PA /ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES/ IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST OF JST-DUJ LINE...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WEAK MID-LVL WINDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
AND STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE-TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...DRIVEN
LARGELY BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN INTO THE EVE HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THE MESO MODEL DATA HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL THUS FAR IN DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA/COVERAGE. THE WILD CARD WILL BE UPSTREAM
MCS CROSSING XTRME SW LAKE ERIE. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THIS TSTM
COMPLEX OUT OF OUR CWA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT DIVES SEWD
ACRS NERN OH THRU 00Z.
CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP MINS IN THE 60S IN MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FNT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD THRU THE
UPPER OH VLY. TEMPS WILL WARM ALOFT AND REACH +8-9C AT 700MB BY
00Z WED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE EARLY IN THE DAY...AND
MDL DATA SUGGESTS DIURNAL AIRMASS CONVECTION ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN
AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LIMITED
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO STAY MOSTLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MORE PROBABLE NEAR THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES OF THE RIDGES/HIGHER MTN TERRAIN. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY /SFC DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO 60S/ WILL RESULT IN HAZE
AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED/THU LOOK VERY WARM TO HOT AND QUITE MUGGY. HEAT INDICES COULD
NUDGE 100 OVER SERN ZONES FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT INDICES ARE NOT YET INDICATED. IF TEMPS
OR DEWPOINTS GET NUDGED UP A BIT HOWEVER...WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH THE SEASON`S FIRST HEATWAVE AND ADVISORY HEADLINES.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED THANKS TO VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS WHICH ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY
WHEN MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
PICTURE.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS OUR UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE DOWN THRU THE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY. TIMING AT THIS RANGE IS
IMPOSSIBLE SO HEDGED TOWARD LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
INTERESTING ECMWF DEVELOPMENT WOULD GIVE US A WIDESPREAD CHILLY
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. STILL FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THE PATTERN
IT IS PAINTING LOOKS LIKE ANYTHING BUT THE FIRST DAYS OF THE
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIS SATL SHOWS AIRMASS OVR WRN PA HAS DESTABILIZED ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH/VCTS AT BFD AND
JST BUT POINT PROBS ARE LOW.
LOW CLOUDS /LOW END MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT AGL/ WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET
MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN PA THRU THIS EVE. XPECT CIGS TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAINTAINED AT MOST TAF SITES.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW WITH CONDS EVENTUALLY
BCMG VFR BY LATER TUE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM FOG-HZ/LOW CIGS POSS. ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...ISOLD PM TSTM IMPACTS POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS INDICATED BY
RADAR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOME IN COVERAGE PER THE LATEST HRRR INTO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY...BUT REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. UPDRAFTS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICUALRY STRONG AND WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE IS MINIMAL. IT WILL TAKE A 55DBZ CORE TO NEAR 24KFT
FOR SEVERE HAIL TODAY. CURRENT REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NE IN VA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME APPARENT WEAK
MCV`S. EXPANDING THE SCATTERED TYPE POPS OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND NC NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS PRUDENT AS
THIS AREA IS SKIRTED BY SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING.
THE UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO
A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK SW WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. THE 12Z NAM FORECASTS
A MCV TO MOVE FROM VA INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MISS THE CWA...SO JUST
ISOLATED POPS IN THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BUT SOMEWHAT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HIT 90
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE WITH UPPER 80S ELSEHWERE OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA UNDER A LIGHT E TO SE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE MOUNTAINS LOOK A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE
THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE STEEP. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWARD ERN TN.
THEREFORE...I/M KEEPING POPS QUITE LOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WITH THE
ESE FLOW I DON/T SEE FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS GETTING MUCH
HOTTER THAN 90 OR 91 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND DROP TO THE SOUTH OF THURSDAY...TURNING
THE FLOW FROM LIGHT EASTERLY TO VERY LIGHT WESTERLY ACROSS THE FA.
THE GFS HAS A LITTLE HIGHER DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE LEE...BUT
WARM MID LEVELS STILL WORK TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
WITH EVEN WEAKER SHEAR THAN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OR PIEDMONT ONCE AGAIN. THE
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS AS WELL CONSIDERING
HOW WEAK THE LAPSE-RATES WILL BE...BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A FEW
STORMS AROUND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THURSDAY
WITH THE VERY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF ANY
UPSLOPE COOLING. NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL...
BUT YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MICROBURST THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...THE 18/12 UTC RUN OF THE OP GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE RESPONSE ASSOCIATED WITH ENCROACHING AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL PLAN ON
MAINTAINING LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNALLY TIMED TSTM PROBABILITIES
EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO. IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE PATTERN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING POKING BACK EASTWARD AS PER THE
GFS OR THE PREFERRED FLATTER WNW FLOW AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING...BUT
AT THIS POINT...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM ROUGHLY A
PERSISTENCE FCST TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD...A SHOTGUN 15-20 DAILY POP
AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS OR WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WIL BE KAVL WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DICTATE A VCTS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. ALSO...HAVE LOWERED VSBY IN FOG LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 3SM PER MOST GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED E OF MTNS THRU
THU...WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY AND VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY...BUT
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. UPDRAFTS DO NOT LOOK PARTICUALRY
STRONG AND WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS...THE THREAT OF SEVERE IS MINIMAL.
IT WILL TAKE A 55DBZ CORE TO NEAR 24KFT FOR SEVERE HAIL TODAY.
CURRENT REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NE IN VA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME APPARENT WEAK MCV`S. EXPANDING THE
SCATTERED TYPE POPS OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NC NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS PRUDENT AS THIS AREA IS
SKIRTED BY SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING. THE 12Z NAM FORECASTS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT MCV TO MOVE FROM VA INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN MISS THE CWA...BUT BRINGING
POPS INTO THE ISOLD RANGE IN THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS IS
AGAIN PRUDENT IN DEFERENCE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MCV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS:
AS OF 1015 AM...12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS LOOK CONSIDERABLY OVERDONE IN
REGARD TO THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY CONSIDERING THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO BE QUITE WEAK. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW SOME WEAK VORT
ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR...GSP WRF AND RAP ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND CONTAIN IT OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS. I DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FIELD TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SC/GA
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...WIND/MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS LOOK GOOD.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE OHIO VALLEY
SHORT WAVE....BUT ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE. THIS SHOULD HELP ERODE THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS. AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF
SHORE BRINGING SLY TO SWLY LOW LVL FLOW BACK OVER THE CWFA. THIS
WILL BRING GREATER AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
SOUTH WHICH SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY CWFA WIDE.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AND POSSIBLY THE
ESCARPMENT WITH ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH. RISING THICKNESSES WILL BRING
HIGHER MAX TEMPS...WITH VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE MTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA UNDER A LIGHT E TO SE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE MOUNTAINS LOOK A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE
THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE STEEP. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWARD ERN TN.
THEREFORE...I/M KEEPING POPS QUITE LOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WITH THE
ESE FLOW I DON/T SEE FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS GETTING MUCH
HOTTER THAN 90 OR 91 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND DROP TO THE SOUTH OF THURSDAY...TURNING
THE FLOW FROM LIGHT EASTERLY TO VERY LIGHT WESTERLY ACROSS THE FA.
THE GFS HAS A LITTLE HIGHER DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE LEE...BUT
WARM MID LEVELS STILL WORK TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
WITH EVEN WEAKER SHEAR THAN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OR PIEDMONT ONCE AGAIN. THE
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS AS WELL CONSIDERING
HOW WEAK THE LAPSE-RATES WILL BE...BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A FEW
STORMS AROUND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THURSDAY
WITH THE VERY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF ANY
UPSLOPE COOLING. NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL...
BUT YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MICROBURST THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...THE 18/12 UTC RUN OF THE OP GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE RESPONSE ASSOCIATED WITH ENCROACHING AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL PLAN ON
MAINTAINING LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNALLY TIMED TSTM PROBABILITIES
EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO. IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE PATTERN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING POKING BACK EASTWARD AS PER THE
GFS OR THE PREFERRED FLATTER WNW FLOW AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING...BUT
AT THIS POINT...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM ROUGHLY A
PERSISTENCE FCST TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD...A SHOTGUN 15-20 DAILY POP
AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS OR WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WIL BE KAVL WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DICTATE A VCTS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. ALSO...HAVE LOWERED VSBY IN FOG LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 3SM PER MOST GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED E OF MTNS THRU
THU...WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY AND VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.AVIATION...
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF I-35/I35E THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR
STRATUS TO SPREAD UP ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF BKN018 AT WACO STARTING AT 10Z...AND
BKN020 AT THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 11-16Z PERIOD.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CREEP WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY. PER THE RUC ANALYSIS...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE STRETCHED ALONG OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
TODAY WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE AN
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD IS ALREADY DEVELOPING. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG
WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL AGAIN BE LOW
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
WEST TX MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE LA COAST SOUTH TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED COOLING CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING FROM STEPHENVILLE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS GOLDTHWAITE AND LAMPASAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HELD ON TO
UPPER 60S DEW POINTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH TX AS OF 08Z
AND DEEP MOISTURE WAS LIKELY STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER THE 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE
OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING.
THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER EARLY MORNING
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TWO INCH PWAT OBSERVED ON THE
EVENING SOUNDING COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUFFICIENT
EVIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE NOT YET INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THESE COOLING CLOUD TOPS...SO KEPT COVERAGE AS
ISOLATED/10 PERCENT FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING AS THE WEST TX
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA SPREADING LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
AFTERNOON DEW POINT VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. ASSUMING
THIS OCCURS SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CAPPED DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE
REGION. THEREFORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
LOOK UNLIKELY DESPITE A LOSS OF STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER FAR SOUTH TX.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR SOUTH TX IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE WEAKNESS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND BECOME A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN
GULF FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
MOVING PROGRESSIVELY WEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INVERTED TROUGH ESSENTIALLY MARKS A
BOUNDARY BETWEEN A DEEP...MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND A SOMEWHAT
MODIFIED/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
THIS MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAGER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING
CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES OF
LESS THAN 0.25. ON A FORECAST SOUNDING THIS LOOKS LIKE A TALL BUT
SLENDER CAPE REGION WHICH IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
THE INVERTED TROUGH. WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOIST AIRMASS
EACH AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
AND ARE THEREFORE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION MULTIPLE TIMES...HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE WEST OF
THE ENTIRE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NORTH
TX BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS EXITING THE CWA TO THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
EXTENDED...MOST GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO EXTEND
OVER NORTH TX THROUGH THE PERIOD SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ALSO WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW HEAT TO BEGIN
BUILDING OVER NORTH TX WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ASSUMING THE RIDGE IS AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED...WE COULD SEE 100
DEGREES IN THE METROPLEX BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT HAVE HIGHS JUST
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE TIME BEING.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 75 92 75 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
WACO, TX 94 75 92 76 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
PARIS, TX 91 72 90 71 90 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENTON, TX 94 74 91 74 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 93 74 90 73 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
DALLAS, TX 94 75 91 75 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
TERRELL, TX 92 75 90 74 91 / 20 20 20 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 92 75 90 75 90 / 20 20 40 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 91 75 91 / 20 20 20 20 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CREEP WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY. PER THE RUC ANALYSIS...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE STRETCHED ALONG OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
TODAY WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE AN
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD IS ALREADY DEVELOPING. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG
WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL AGAIN BE LOW
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA RADAR VAD WINDS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 30 KT IN THE
020-040 LAYER...WHICH HAS TRANSLATED TO SURFACE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS HAVE
SLACKENED IN THE PAST HOUR BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AROUND MID
MORNING AND BECOME SUSTAINED 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABSENT THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW
AS A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MVFR
STRATUS TOMORROW BEGINNING 10Z AT ACT AND 11Z IN THE METROPLEX.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION LOW AT AREA TAF SITES UNTIL
PERHAPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
WEST TX MOVING SOUTHEAST. PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE LA COAST SOUTH TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED COOLING CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING FROM STEPHENVILLE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS GOLDTHWAITE AND LAMPASAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HELD ON TO
UPPER 60S DEW POINTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH TX AS OF 08Z
AND DEEP MOISTURE WAS LIKELY STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER THE 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE
OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING.
THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER EARLY MORNING
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TWO INCH PWAT OBSERVED ON THE
EVENING SOUNDING COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUFFICIENT
EVIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE NOT YET INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THESE COOLING CLOUD TOPS...SO KEPT COVERAGE AS
ISOLATED/10 PERCENT FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING AS THE WEST TX
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA SPREADING LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS MORNING.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
AFTERNOON DEW POINT VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. ASSUMING
THIS OCCURS SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CAPPED DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE
REGION. THEREFORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
LOOK UNLIKELY DESPITE A LOSS OF STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER FAR SOUTH TX.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR SOUTH TX IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE WEAKNESS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND BECOME A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN
GULF FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
MOVING PROGRESSIVELY WEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INVERTED TROUGH ESSENTIALLY MARKS A
BOUNDARY BETWEEN A DEEP...MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND A SOMEWHAT
MODIFIED/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
THIS MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAGER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING
CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES OF
LESS THAN 0.25. ON A FORECAST SOUNDING THIS LOOKS LIKE A TALL BUT
SLENDER CAPE REGION WHICH IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
THE INVERTED TROUGH. WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOIST AIRMASS
EACH AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
AND ARE THEREFORE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION MULTIPLE TIMES...HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE WEST OF
THE ENTIRE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NORTH
TX BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS EXITING THE CWA TO THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
EXTENDED...MOST GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO EXTEND
OVER NORTH TX THROUGH THE PERIOD SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ALSO WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW HEAT TO BEGIN
BUILDING OVER NORTH TX WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ASSUMING THE RIDGE IS AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED...WE COULD SEE 100
DEGREES IN THE METROPLEX BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT HAVE HIGHS JUST
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE TIME BEING.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 75 92 75 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
WACO, TX 94 75 92 76 92 / 10 10 20 20 40
PARIS, TX 91 72 90 71 90 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENTON, TX 94 74 91 74 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 93 74 90 73 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
DALLAS, TX 94 75 91 75 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
TERRELL, TX 92 75 90 74 91 / 20 20 20 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 92 75 90 75 90 / 20 20 40 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 91 75 91 / 20 20 20 20 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MESOSCALE MODELS AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODELS DEVELOP A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND MOVE THE OUTFLOW-TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD REACH MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE AREAS FROM 7 TO 10 PM. MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY ON
ANYTHING REACHING RACINE OR KENOSHA BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HANGS UP.
WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KNOTS OF 6KM BULK SHEAR...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 PM. IF THE BOUNDARY REALLY GETS MOVING AND CAN MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AND FIGHT AGAINST THE WARM CAP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...THEN
THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE HIGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO OUR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE RIDGE OF THE CORFIDI
VECTORS LINES UP. A CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY DOWN INTO NORTHERN MILWAUKEE METRO IF HRRR PANS
OUT. THE 17Z HRRR SLOWLY MOVES THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI THIS
EVENING.
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. IT HAS TAKEN A
WHILE TO TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BUT SITES ARE JUST
MEETING CRITERIA WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN WI WILL BE BACK IN THE HOT...HUMID AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MODELS ARE NOW A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STAYS IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE 850 MB JET IS AT 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
CONVERGENCE HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THE 850 MB WINDS WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS WITH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE ENTRANCE REGION BY EVENING...WITH WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CAP. THE NAM WEAKENS THE RATHER STRONG CAP BETWEEN 7 TO 10 THSD
FT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG. THIS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.75 TO
1.90 INCHES...SO SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES THE JAMES BAY CANADA
REGION THURSDAY WITH THE JET MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A WEST/NORTHWEST JET ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER DIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WEAKENING AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
ON THURSDAY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY.
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WISCONSIN A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH HE MAIN LOW MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AND INTO ILLINOIS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY.
ONLY THE 12Z GFS KEEPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING. PREFER THE QUICKER 00Z ECMWF/06Z DGEX FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS ARE PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF A MADISON TO A MILWAUKEE LINE...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD UES/MKE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOT...HUMID AND BREEZY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...PEAKING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO SHORE...DIMINISHING OFF
SHORE DUE TO THE LAKE STABILIZING INFLUENCE. BUT...WAVES WILL BE
HIGHER TOWARD OPEN WATER. SO EITHER WAY...A ROUGH DAY OUT ON THE
WATER TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ058>060-062>072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1144 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE AREA AIRPORTS TODAY.
WEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS AT SE WYOMING AIRFIELDS AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER AROUND
02Z. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL TURN
THE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HAHN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
UPDATE...
NW-TO-SE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RUNS FROM DOUGLAS THROUGH SCOTTSBLUFF
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH AND A
WARMER...DRIER...AND ALREADY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
SOUTH. THE MODELS FCST THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW. RFW CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
ON TRACK WITH FIRE WEATHER ZONE 311 PROBABLY THE LAST TO REACH
CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTN. LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS...MORE IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE RUC IS SHOWING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP WITH
BRISK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...700 MB TEMPERATURES 14-18C AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5910 METERS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH DEWPOINTS
SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER AT MOST LOCATIONS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...
BELIEVE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH VERY LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY AS IT PASSES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WITH A WIND SWITCH TO
WEST AND NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY...QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM 4C IN THE NORTH TO 12C IN THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND WILL
MAINTAIN THESE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
WEDNESDAY...ONCE AGAIN...LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SCANT
FOR ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 6-13C YIELDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LOOKING AT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH THESE TEMPERATURES
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE ARE LOOKING AT 588DM HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWFA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +16 TO +18C. BY FRIDAY...GFS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD +18C TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWFA WHILE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWING +20C 700MB TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED
FORECASTING SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLY A WINDY PERIOD AS WELL FRIDAY AS 700MB WINDS
OFF THE GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FINALLY PUSHES
EAST OF OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL A LITTLE. FOR THE
MOST PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS START TO PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
TOO MOIST FOR US ON SEVERAL PAST EVENTS. ODDS ARE...WE STAY DRY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UNDER 15
PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25. EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE MINIMAL ESPECIALLY FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE.
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EVEN WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL UNDER
15 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-WYZ102-WYZ103-
WYZ104-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ112-
WYZ113-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR WYZ103-
WYZ104-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ112-
WYZ113-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-NEZ003-NEZ019-
NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1011 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2012
.UPDATE...
NW-TO-SE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RUNS FROM DOUGLAS THROUGH SCOTTSBLUFF
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH AND A
WARMER...DRIER...AND ALREADY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
SOUTH. THE MODELS FCST THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW. RFW CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
ON TRACK WITH FIRE WEATHER ZONE 311 PROBABLY THE LAST TO REACH
CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTN. LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS...MORE IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE RUC IS SHOWING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15Z TIL 02Z
OR SO. BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS...NO IMPACTS FROM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR FLIGHT OPERATIONS TODAY.
CLAYCOMB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP WITH
BRISK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...700 MB TEMPERATURES 14-18C AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5910 METERS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH DEWPOINTS
SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER AT MOST LOCATIONS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...
BELIEVE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH VERY LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY AS IT PASSES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WITH A WIND SWITCH TO
WEST AND NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY...QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM 4C IN THE NORTH TO 12C IN THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND WILL
MAINTAIN THESE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
WEDNESDAY...ONCE AGAIN...LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SCANT
FOR ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 6-13C YIELDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LOOKING AT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH THESE TEMPERATURES
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE ARE LOOKING AT 588DM HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWFA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +16 TO +18C. BY FRIDAY...GFS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD +18C TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWFA WHILE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWING +20C 700MB TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED
FORECASTING SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLY A WINDY PERIOD AS WELL FRIDAY AS 700MB WINDS
OFF THE GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FINALLY PUSHES
EAST OF OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL A LITTLE. FOR THE
MOST PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS START TO PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
TOO MOIST FOR US ON SEVERAL PAST EVENTS. ODDS ARE...WE STAY DRY.
FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UNDER 15
PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25. EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE MINIMAL ESPECIALLY FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE.
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EVEN WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL UNDER
15 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-WYZ102-WYZ103-
WYZ104-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ112-
WYZ113-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR WYZ103-
WYZ104-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ112-
WYZ113-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-NEZ003-NEZ019-
NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH