Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/16/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
958 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL DRAG ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO SATURDAY
MORNING. WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING AND MOISTURE STREAM AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. MODEL DATA SHOWS THESE
SHOWERS WANING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE WRN UINTA MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO GET PUSHED EAST
INTO THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND VERNAL VICINITY...COINCIDING
WITH SHALLOW COOL FRONT PUSH INTO THE UINTA BASIN AND NW COLORADO.
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO
THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS BASED ON THE LATEST RAP13 AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
CONVECTION GOT OFF TO AN EARLIER START TODAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING OVER THE FLAT TOPS AND EASTERN END OF THE ROAN PLATEAU. A
BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 12Z GJT SOUNDING (0.58 INCHES
LIQUID) COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES...
EVIDENT IN RAP ANALYSES...PROVIDES SOME INSIGHT INTO EARLY ONSET OF
STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS PEAK HEATING STILL A
COUPLE OF HOURS OFF.
DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO SUSTAIN IT. LATER THIS EVENING AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIVING THE
STALLED FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODELS TAKE THE FRONT TO THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS AND INTO THE WHITE RIVER
NATIONAL FOREST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITHOUT FANFARE BRINGING A SHIFT IN
SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE ELSE TO MARK ITS PASSAGE.
ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE COL BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. AS
SUCH...MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A BROAD
FLAT TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW
WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY TIGHTENING
THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS REGIME AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FURTHER DETAILS BELOW IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT. DRYING PRECLUDES THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO LEFT ANY MENTION OF MOIST CONVECTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HOT THIS WEEKEND. WENT
WITH NEAR PERSISTENCE HIGHS SATURDAY AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND 7H
TEMP FIELDS LARGELY UNCHANGED. BOOSTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
SUNDAY AS WINDS MIX DOWN ADDED WARMTH. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY HIT
THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
A STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING EACH AFTERNOON THIS
STRONGER FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THIS FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT ANY
OF THE SCANT MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE DIVIDE...FOR VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO FIRE WEATHER. SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. MODELS HAVE INDICATED WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE A LIGHTER FLOW BEGINNING ON WED...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ON THU. FOR NOW
WILL STAY WITH THE DOWNTURN IN THE WINDS ON WED...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON THU INTO
FRI...BRINGING A RELIEF FROM THE WINDS. BUT DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
PASSING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KVEL
THROUGH 06Z. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON CU IS EXPECTED TO POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS 10 PERCENT OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 25-30 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES WILL REACH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST ARE BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS
THE JET STREAM SAGS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL AFTER THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. ALSO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. THEREFORE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFT/EVE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS.
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES CONCERNING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STRONGER WINDS. IT LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. THEN LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ482>487.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ482>487.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE WRN UINTA MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO GET PUSHED EAST
INTO THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND VERNAL VICINITY...COINCIDING
WITH SHALLOW COOL FRONT PUSH INTO THE UINTA BASIN AND NW COLORADO.
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO
THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS BASED ON THE LATEST RAP13 AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
CONVECTION GOT OFF TO AN EARLIER START TODAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING OVER THE FLAT TOPS AND EASTERN END OF THE ROAN PLATEAU. A
BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 12Z GJT SOUNDING (0.58 INCHES
LIQUID) COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES...
EVIDENT IN RAP ANALYSES...PROVIDES SOME INSIGHT INTO EARLY ONSET OF
STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS PEAK HEATING STILL A
COUPLE OF HOURS OFF.
DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO SUSTAIN IT. LATER THIS EVENING AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIVING THE
STALLED FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODELS TAKE THE FRONT TO THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS AND INTO THE WHITE RIVER
NATIONAL FOREST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITHOUT FANFARE BRINGING A SHIFT IN
SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE ELSE TO MARK ITS PASSAGE.
ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE COL BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. AS
SUCH...MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A BROAD
FLAT TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW
WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY TIGHTENING
THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS REGIME AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FURTHER DETAILS BELOW IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT. DRYING PRECLUDES THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO LEFT ANY MENTION OF MOIST CONVECTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HOT THIS WEEKEND. WENT
WITH NEAR PERSISTENCE HIGHS SATURDAY AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND 7H
TEMP FIELDS LARGELY UNCHANGED. BOOSTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
SUNDAY AS WINDS MIX DOWN ADDED WARMTH. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY HIT
THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
A STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING EACH AFTERNOON THIS
STRONGER FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THIS FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT ANY
OF THE SCANT MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE DIVIDE...FOR VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO FIRE WEATHER. SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. MODELS HAVE INDICATED WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE A LIGHTER FLOW BEGINNING ON WED...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ON THU. FOR NOW
WILL STAY WITH THE DOWNTURN IN THE WINDS ON WED...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON THU INTO
FRI...BRINGING A RELIEF FROM THE WINDS. BUT DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
KVEL...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN VICINITY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UINTA BASIN. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF BY DAYBREAK.
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35KT WILL
OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ENDS BY 06Z.
HIGH BASED CU WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
LOCALIZED STORMS AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HUG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES WILL REACH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST ARE BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS
THE JET STREAM SAGS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL AFTER THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. ALSO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. THEREFORE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFT/EVE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS.
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES CONCERNING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STRONGER WINDS. IT LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. THEN LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ482>487.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ482>487.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE HAD INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEGIN WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF BOTH SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
PUSH EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SO
BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA DEVELOPING...AND
FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO MAINTAINED VCTS EAST COAST TERMINALS
18-00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WHICH DIMINISHED AROUND 04Z, SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AND WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE
INLAND AND AT LEAST ONE SUBTLE VORT MAX APPROACHES, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND AS EARLY AS 15Z, WHILE AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA, THE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN MOISTURE, HEALTHIER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. WE
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 20-30 POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN DURING THIS PERIOD,
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME ALSO AFFECTING THE EAST COAST, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL KEEP ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY START SURGING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE 5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPING...AND FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO INCLUDED VCTS EAST
COAST TERMINALS 18-00Z. /GREGORIA
MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 87 74 / 40 40 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 30 30
MIAMI 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 73 / 20 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
722 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA DEVELOPING...AND
FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO MAINTAINED VCTS EAST COAST TERMINALS
18-00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WHICH DIMINISHED AROUND 04Z, SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AND WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE
INLAND AND AT LEAST ONE SUBTLE VORT MAX APPROACHES, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND AS EARLY AS 15Z, WHILE AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA, THE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN MOISTURE, HEALTHIER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. WE
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 20-30 POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN DURING THIS PERIOD,
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME ALSO AFFECTING THE EAST COAST, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL KEEP ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY START SURGING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE 5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPING...AND FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO INCLUDED VCTS EAST
COAST TERMINALS 18-00Z. /GREGORIA
MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 87 74 / 40 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 30 30
MIAMI 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 73 / 20 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WHICH DIMINISHED AROUND 04Z, SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AND WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE
INLAND AND AT LEAST ONE SUBTLE VORT MAX APPROACHES, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND AS EARLY AS 15Z, WHILE AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA, THE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN MOISTURE, HEALTHIER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. WE
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 20-30 POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN DURING THIS PERIOD,
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME ALSO AFFECTING THE EAST COAST, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL KEEP ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY START SURGING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE 5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPING...AND FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO INCLUDED VCTS EAST
COAST TERMINALS 18-00Z. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 87 74 / 40 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 30 30
MIAMI 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 73 / 20 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
319 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
...UPDATED THE LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
A BROAD WEAK, ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WA IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS OCCURRING AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTED HIGHER CONTENT MOISTURE AIR FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES. FARTHER WEST, A DRYLINE WAS
EVIDENT IN THE MESONET POINT DATA ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AS WELL
AS IN A FINE LINE DEVELOPING ON KPUX RADAR FROM LAMAR, CO
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
VERY DIFFERENTLY AND THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE 12UTC NAM MODEL WOULD INDICATE AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE MUCH HIGHER CAPE/INSTABILITY
AXIS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. AT HIS TIME, THIS NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE MORE
LIKELY THAN OTHERS BASED ON THE WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT WE ARE
DEALING WITH. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE RECENT
ARW-WRF/NMM RUNS AND HRRR THAT HAVE ELUDED TO CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A COLD POOL AND
SPREADING RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN SEVERAL TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. IF THAT DOES OCCUR, THE MOST PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME WOULD
SEEM TO BE MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKER CONVECTION COULD SPREAD FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE JUST AS GOOD OR BETTER ALONG A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD UNDERGO FRONTOGENESIS FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE BE WEAK FORCING,
BUT PERHAPS MORE MODERATE CAPE VALUES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR, WESTWARD TO SCOTT CITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE NAM MODEL
IS INDICATING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHILST
MOST OTHER NUMERICAL OUTPUT IS INDICATING LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS A VERY CHALLENGING ONE
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...EACH OF WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON THE FOLLOWING
MCS IN TERMS OF LOCATION, TIMING, AND IMPACTS. WE ARE NOW IN THE
PEAK OF MCS SEASON ON THE GREAT PLAINS...SO THIS REALLY COMES AS NO
SHOCK TO THIS FORECASTER. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ONLY
ADDING TO THE ALREADY PLENTIFUL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE
WESTERN KANSAS REGION WILL REMAIN IN THIS PERTURBED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN (ALBEIT QUITE
WEAK) AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PUSHING DOWN INTO
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WILL MORE OR LESS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY (WITH ACTUALLY A
REINFORCING WEAK FRONT SATURDAY).
THE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF,
GFS, AND NAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MCS`S TO AFFECT
PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THIS FLOW REGIME
REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT
BE THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EACH DAY LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AND LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING BY LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT POLAR JET AFFECTS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP SURFACE LOW/LEE
TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A HOT 850-700MB
LAYER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NEW MEXICO PLATEAU WHICH
WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE POP FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS WE HEAD TO MID-WEEK...ONE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO REACH WESTERN KANSAS
AGAIN PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE WE HAVE SOME 20 POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
BETTER CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS
POINT...BUT THIS IS 7 DAYS OUT SO IT IS NOT ALL THAT WISE TO GET TOO
DETAILED ABOUT THIS. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH SHOULD BE
MONDAY WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 283).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE. NONETHELESS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS ENOUGH AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST TO
WARRENT INCLUSION IN THE HYS TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
PROBABILITY OF THESE STORMS BEING WITHIN 5 NM OF DDC AND GCK IS
TOO LOW TO INSERT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 65 90 71 / 20 30 20 30
GCK 95 65 91 69 / 30 40 20 30
EHA 95 65 91 67 / 30 40 20 30
LBL 95 67 93 70 / 20 30 20 30
HYS 95 66 87 72 / 30 60 20 30
P28 95 70 89 73 / 10 30 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
111 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
A BROAD WEAK, ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WA IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS OCCURRING AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTED HIGHER CONTENT MOISTURE AIR FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES. FARTHER WEST, A DRYLINE WAS
EVIDENT IN THE MESONET POINT DATA ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AS WELL
AS IN A FINE LINE DEVELOPING ON KPUX RADAR FROM LAMAR, CO
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
VERY DIFFERENTLY AND THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE 12UTC NAM MODEL WOULD INDICATE AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE MUCH HIGHER CAPE/INSTABILITY
AXIS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. AT HIS TIME, THIS NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE MORE
LIKELY THAN OTHERS BASED ON THE WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT WE ARE
DEALING WITH. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE RECENT
ARW-WRF/NMM RUNS AND HRRR THAT HAVE ELUDED TO CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A COLD POOL AND
SPREADING RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN SEVERAL TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. IF THAT DOES OCCUR, THE MOST PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME WOULD
SEEM TO BE MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKER CONVECTION COULD SPREAD FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE JUST AS GOOD OR BETTER ALONG A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD UNDERGO FRONTOGENESIS FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE BE WEAK FORCING,
BUT PERHAPS MORE MODERATE CAPE VALUES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR, WESTWARD TO SCOTT CITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE NAM MODEL
IS INDICATING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHILST
MOST OTHER NUMERICAL OUTPUT IS INDICATING LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL SEE ONE UPPER SHORT WAVE
EXITING THE WESTERN PLAINS OF KANSAS, BRINGING ABOUT A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD, EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY, THE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT, AND ONLY IN TREGO,
ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT QPF FROM 0.60
TO 0.80-INCH IN OUR NORTHWEST FROM HAYS TO SCOTT CITY, BUT HAVE A
HARD TIME BUYING THAT MUCH PERCEPTIBLE WATER WILL FALL OUT, BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS. TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT QPF TO AROUND 0.25 TO
0.30-INCH. AS THAT SHORT WAVE EXITS, ANOTHER SMALL SCALE WAVE IS
EJECTED FROM THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS SECOND WAVE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE FIRST, AND WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THAT AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON
CITY TO LA CROSSE. THE UPPER BAJA LOW CUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT PER
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, AND AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
TEXAS. FOR NOW, PLAN TO KEEP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FREE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT OUR EXTREME EAST WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVERHEAD, AND
A DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL BE EVOLVING. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE,
SUCH AS SOUTHEAST OF LINE FORM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE CR-EXTENDED BLEND PROCEDURE PLACED 30 POPS IN
MY EXTREME THREE EASTERN COUNTIES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER
WEDNESDAY, OR DAY 7. KNOCKED THOSE POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT, AS THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT WAVE COULD BE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
AROUND THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY HOT DURING THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
(SE, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTIES), WITH PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING THE COOLEST MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SCOTT CITY TO 70 DEGREES IN MEDICINE LODGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 90S NORTH OF I-70 AND RANGE TO
THE MID 90S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. BY SUNDAY, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, THEN WARM TO PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE ELKHART AREA
BEING NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT (BEST GUESS), AND KNOCK HIGHS DOWN A NOTCH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE. NONETHELESS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS ENOUGH AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST TO
WARRENT INCLUSION IN THE HYS TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
PROBABILITY OF THESE STORMS BEING WITHIN 5 NM OF DDC AND GCK IS
TOO LOW TO INSERT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 93 71 95 / 30 20 20 10
GCK 65 93 69 95 / 40 20 20 20
EHA 65 91 66 92 / 40 20 20 10
LBL 67 93 68 94 / 30 20 20 10
HYS 66 90 72 95 / 40 20 30 30
P28 70 94 73 94 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1038 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERY COMFY THIS EVE W/ TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE 60S...AND DEWPTS DN
INTO THE L/M50S. SKC OVR THE FA...THOUGH THERE IS PTNTL FOR
SC...ESP INVOF CST (ESP SE VA/NE NC) LT. NE WNDS STILL RMNG
GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH INVOF IMMEDIATE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY
55-60...EXCEPT 60-65 IN THE CSTL/FAR SE ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
MID ATLC REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENLY STAY
EASTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL...AND OTHER THAN FAIR WX CU (AND
SOME OCCNL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST) SKIES WILL AVG OUT MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVG W/ HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE LWR 80S WELL INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. NORTHEAST/ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME
LESS BREEZY EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT LATE SUN INTO
MON...WITHGFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW AND MSTR/CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADDED 20% POPS IN THE PIEDMONT FOR
MONDAY...AS BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT STILL STAYS OFF TO OUR N/W. HIGH
TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FOR MON...MAINLY 80-85.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TOWARD MID WEEK.
THE PESKY LOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON
FRIDAY AND BASED ON CONSENSUS BETWEEN HPC GUIDE AND 00Z MOS
GUIDE...INCLUDED SLGT CHC TSTMS ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTN TSTM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST
AT THIS POINT.
DID SOME BLENDING BETWEEN THE WARMER HPC GUIDE...COOLER MOS GUIDE
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
THIS SUMMER HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90
WELL INLAND TUESDAY INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID 90S WELL INLAND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TUESDAY MRNG WARM TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION INTO SUN...AS HI PRES
BLDS DWN OVR THE AREA. GUSTY NE WNDS ALNG THE CST WILL CALM DOWN
OVRNGT...BUT PICK UP AGAIN SAT MORNG THRU SAT AFTN. THERE CUD BE
SCT LWR SC (~2000 FT) AT ECG OR ORF ERLY SAT MORNG...OTHRWISE CLR
OR MAINLY CLR SKY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LOWER BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND THE PORTION
OF THE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. THIS EXTENSION WAS MAINLY BASED ON THE RUC WIND FCST THAT
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR WINDS OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 5 FT OR HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCA CONTINUES IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...NOSING SW DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED WELL OFF THE SE US COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A
FAIR AMOUNT CUMULUS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE GENLY
SCATTERING OUT NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS SUNSET.
SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT W/ MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT FLOW...THE EXCEPTION BEING ACRS FAR SE VA/NE
NC...WHERE WINDS STAY MORE MIXED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATOCU AFTER 06-09Z. LOWS PRIMARILY 55-60...EXCEPT 60-65
IN THE FAR SE ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
MID ATLC REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENLY STAY
EASTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL...AND OTHER THAN FAIR WX CU (AND
SOME OCCNL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST) SKIES WILL AVG OUT MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVG W/ HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE LWR 80S WELL INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. NORTHEAST/ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME
LESS BREEZY EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT LATE SUN INTO
MON...WITHGFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW AND MSTR/CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADDED 20% POPS IN THE PIEDMONT FOR
MONDAY...AS BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT STILL STAYS OFF TO OUR N/W. HIGH
TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FOR MON...MAINLY 80-85.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TOWARD MID WEEK.
THE PESKY LOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON
FRIDAY AND BASED ON CONSENSUS BETWEEN HPC GUIDE AND 00Z MOS
GUIDE...INCLUDED SLGT CHC TSTMS ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTN TSTM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST
AT THIS POINT.
DID SOME BLENDING BETWEEN THE WARMER HPC GUIDE...COOLER MOS GUIDE
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
THIS SUMMER HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90
WELL INLAND TUESDAY INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID 90S WELL INLAND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TUESDAY MRNG WARM TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION INTO SUN...AS HI PRES
BLDS DWN OVR THE AREA. GUSTY NE WNDS ALNG THE CST WILL CALM DOWN
OVRNGT...BUT PICK UP AGAIN SAT MORNG THRU SAT AFTN. THERE CUD BE
SCT LWR SC (~2000 FT) AT ECG OR ORF ERLY SAT MORNG...OTHRWISE CLR
OR MAINLY CLR SKY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LOWER BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND THE PORTION
OF THE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. THIS EXTENSION WAS MAINLY BASED ON THE RUC WIND FCST THAT
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR WINDS OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 5 FT OR HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCA CONTINUES IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CLIP NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE AT LEAST TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING HOW WARM IT
WILL BECOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ALSO NEED TO DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM A DISSIPATING MCS OVER NORTHERN WI
ATTM TO CLIP OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
A CONSENSUS OF 12Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MCS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN WI/SOUTHERN MN WILL STAY TO OUR NW TONIGHT. THAT IS WHERE
STRONG FORCING FROM THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DYING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAY FLIRT WITH OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES (MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LDM TO MOP) AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RGNL RADAR TRENDS.
I HAVE ADDED MENTION OF JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LAPS
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LOOK VERY DRY THOUGH AND I WOULD
EXPECT THE EASTERN WING OF THE DECAYING MCS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER EASTERN WI WHILE NEW CONVECTION TAKES OFF OVER WESTERN WI WHERE
THE ROBUST LLJ FORCING IS. WE WILL MAINLY JUST SEE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD BLOWOFF FROM THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NW
LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.
FAIR/MILDER WX ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA AND WITH H8 TEMPS REACHING 17-18 C BY TOMORROW
AFTN.
HOT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA
CONTINUING AND H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO 19 TO 20 C. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL NOT INHIBIT IT
FROM BECOMING HOT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BASED LARGELY ON 12Z GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING THE
APPROACH OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND INCREASING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 12Z NAM GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THRU 12Z
SUNDAY AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ONLY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR NW
FCST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SO OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
(SLIGHTLY) BETTER CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITH STORM SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST
BEING PUSHED UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL THAT LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL BARRIER TO THE WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.
A COUPLE SYSTEMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST WOULD DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT AND THE DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH.
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THINK
WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE... THIS MAY NOT PASS UNTIL POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALSO PASSES TO THE NORTH.
OVERALL... IT LOOKS WARM WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST... A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO THE SOUTH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA... BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO
15 KT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 2 FEET
OR LESS. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND AS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVERRUNS RELATIVELY COOLER LAKE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WX TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING A
CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL RUN...CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS.
THIS AFTERNOON...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST
WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
ON GOING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SYSTEM WAS
BACKBUILDING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT
STRETCH OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
HELP INSTIGATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAD COOLED DOWN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHERE THE FREEZING
LEVEL HAS LOWER FROM 13700 FEET EARLIER. MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY WAS LARGE HAIL...WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GEM-NHEM INDICATED MORE OF THE SAME NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL MORE BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY AND HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
EXTREME WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN MORE OF A HAIL THREAT THAN A WIND THREAT WITH
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND GUSTS IN THE 30KT RANGE. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN AT THIS TIME WITH CLEARING JUST AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD MSP AROUND 22Z
AND THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN AT THAT TIME.
THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION FOR
STC/MSP/RNH. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AT THESE SITES THEREFORE TS ACTIVITY
MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE. HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION 19/20Z
TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AXN AREA BUT STRUGGLES UNTIL
WE GET TO THE 22/23Z TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO RNH/MSP AND SOUTHEAST OF RWF. HRRR HAS IT OUT OF THE
MSP/RNH SITES BY 02Z AND OUT OF EAU BY 04Z.
KMSP...TS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FIELD AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF THE FIELD. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
UNTIL 22/23Z...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL GOOD
AT THIS TIME THOUGH. NOT SURE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD BEFORE THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH ARRIVES AROUND 00Z. IF
NOT WINDS IN THE TAF ARE TOO STRONG.
/OUTLOOK/
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES AFTN/EVN.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
118 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW...SEVERAL BOUTS OF RAIN LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MORE HUMIDITY ARRIVES TODAY AND LINGERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN NWS OFFICES HAVE BEEN DOING BATTLE
WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE NOW ON THE FRINGE OF THE WESTERN BORDER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING AREA OF STORMS ARE ON THE NOSE
OF A VERY STRONG 850MB JET AND IN THE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SO FAR...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. IN
FACT...THERE IS DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TIGHTENING
850MB-700MB ISOTHERMS. THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IS LIKELY THE
RESULT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE MOISTURE IS ALSO MUCH BETTER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL ND/SD.
NONETHELESS...INCLUDED HIGH POPS IN CENTRAL MN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH TIME ALTHOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
WEAKENING TREND. INCLUDED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
POINTING AND PWATS ARE ON THE RISE. ACTUALLY ITS 09Z AND JUST NOW
SEEING SOME LIGHT ELEVATED ECHOES OVER THE METRO.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE
RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW
SPC DAY1 HAS A 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. CAN`T REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS GIVEN THE 0-1KM SRH
AND BULK SHEAR OFF THE NAM AND RAP...RIGHT AROUND 100-200 M2/S2
AND 20KTS RESPECTIVELY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING TOWARDS DULUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE TOP 15 DATES FROM THE CIPS
WARM SEASON ANALOG OFF THE 00Z NAM FROM LAST NIGHT DOES
CONCENTRATE THE TORNADO REPORTS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...WITH THE WIND
AND HAIL COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA. MAX UPDRAFT HELICITY FROM
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND TO SOME DEGREE NCEP WRF ARW/NMM...HAVE A
COUPLE CLUSTERS OF +50 M2S2 BY 15.00Z ALONG A LINE FROM DULUTH TO
ALBERT LEA WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO. IN TERMS OF TIMING...21Z IN
CENTRAL MN...00-01Z IN EASTERN MN...AND 04Z CLEARING WEST CENTRAL
WI IS A GOOD FIRST GUESS BASED ON SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY...ITS EVOLUTION IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN BOTH TIMING AND HOW MUCH IT DEEPENS.
THE RESULTANT SFC CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT ARE THEREFORE
AFFECTED...SO DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINK THERE WILL BE
GOOD STORM COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
ON SATURDAY.
STILL TRACKING THAT VORT MAX THAT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS
MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING OUT OF
CO TONIGHT AND TRACKING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ENDING UP
IN SOUTHERN MN BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT ORIGINATES OUT OF CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST - SO LIKELY CONVECTIVE INDUCED.
IN THE EXTENDED...LONG WAVE TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED DEEPENING
AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AT THAT TIME
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE TROUGHING MIGHT BE HELD IN PLACE FOR A
WHILE WITH BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM HOLD THE PATTERN ROUGHLY IN
PLACE. THE CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN MY CREATE SOME HYDROLOGY
CONCERNS GIVEN THE RECENT WET PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY AND HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
EXTREME WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN MORE OF A HAIL THREAT THAN A WIND THREAT WITH
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND GUSTS IN THE 30KT RANGE. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN AT THIS TIME WITH CLEARING JUST AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD MSP AROUND 22Z
AND THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN AT THAT TIME.
THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION FOR
STC/MSP/RNH. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AT THESE SITES THEREFORE TS ACTIVITY
MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE. HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION 19/20Z
TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AXN AREA BUT STRUGGLES UNTIL
WE GET TO THE 22/23Z TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO RNH/MSP AND SOUTHEAST OF RWF. HRRR HAS IT OUT OF THE
MSP/RNH SITES BY 02Z AND OUT OF EAU BY 04Z.
KMSP...TS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FIELD AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF THE FIELD. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
UNTIL 22/23Z...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL GOOD
AT THIS TIME THOUGH. NOT SURE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD BEFORE THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH ARRIVES AROUND 00Z. IF
NOT WINDS IN THE TAF ARE TOO STRONG.
/OUTLOOK/
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES AFTN/EVN.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
CLF/DRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
256 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Gusty southeast winds have maintained rather dry conditions across
the area this afternoon, while abundant sunshine has pushed
temperatures into the middle and upper 80s. Meanwhile, quality
moisture continues to stream north through the Plains, denoted by an
increasing Cu field from Omaha-Topeka-Chanute westward. Cloud cover
along an advancing cold front was enhancing differential heating
from north of Omaha to Hastings, and continued afternoon heating
coupled with increasing moisture is expected to lead to thunderstorm
initiation within the next couple of hours. The evolution of this
activity leads to considerable uncertainly locally as we head into
the overnight hours.
At face value, the combination of strong instability, frontal
convergence and a weak mid level impulse leads to high confidence of
thunderstorm initiation across the Mid Missouri Valley. As has been
the case of late, deep layer shear is marginally supportive of
multi-cell clusters. However, it should be noted that the bulk of
the deep layer shear (20-30 kts) is focused mainly in the lowest
3-4km. Historically, these high CAPE and weak, low tropospheric
shear cases have been overlooked and can often manifest themselves
as long-lived organized MCS events. The NAM has been suggesting this
in the mass fields for a number of runs now, and recent HRRR and
other convection allowing output also side with this notion. Low
level shear vectors and moisture flux vectors would suggest an
overall SE momentum of any organized system(s), with an eastern
limit bounded by the dry air circulating the high to our east. With
that said, feel that increasing POPs is warranted both numerically
and spatially across western MO and eastern KS for tonight. Severe
weather, primarily in the form of wind potential, will be dictated
by any upscale growth of the system and the maintenance of
downstream instability into the late evening hours. This is somewhat
more questionable, but the derecho that ran from srn MO to the Gulf
coast back on Monday occurred in a far less suitable environment.
Depending on any remnant MCV and/or surface outflow boundary,
differential heating could again yield scattered thunderstorms again
tomorrow afternoon, with several larger scale perturbations
emanating from the central Rockies providing greater chances
Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation/cloud cover will ultimately drive
max/min temperature potential, so have opted to stay the course with
mid-upper 80s for highs and 65-70 for lows for the bulk of the CWA
as a hedge toward persistence (just above climo).
Bookbinder
Medium Range (Sunday through Thursday)...
Tail end of the weekend will arrive with a frontal boundary sagging
south into eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, pushed into our
region by one of many shortwaves moving through the northern stream.
GFS and ECMWF have converged some over the past couple of runs
towards a common solution which pushes the late weekend frontal
boundary south into Missouri during the day Sunday. However, as the
front settles into Missouri the parent shortwave will be exiting the
region through the Upper Great Lakes, indicating that the southerly
push on the front will fade quickly. This presents the likely
scenario for Sunday something like this; decaying thunderstorms may
still be kicking around parts of eastern Kansas and Missouri after
sunrise Sunday with it likely that any morning activity will either
shift east out of the area, or fade away by the mid to late morning
hours. This, however, leaves the potential for afternoon recovery of
instability in the vicinity of the frontal boundary that should be
wallowing around the northern half of Missouri. Of course convective
debris may complicate this, but in general this has lent some
confidence to the idea that rain will make an appearance across
parts of the forecast area Sunday, whether it`s from the morning
activity (more likely) or afternoon initiation (a little less
likely). Have avoided pushing up any of the POPs for Sunday beyond
the chance category as the persistently advertised surface high,
which will be stretched across the eastern CONUS through the Gulf
Coast, will likely impede the moisture return from the Gulf some.
After Sunday, a very broad trough is advertised to have moved into
the western CONUS, this will result in a slightly more southwest
orientation to the flow, likely keeping temperatures above normal
through the middle of the work week. As this occurs, focus for any
potential precipitation will shift north, closer to the storms track
of the westerlies. Have damped down any mention of POPs from Monday
through the day Wednesday as a result. Wednesday night into Thursday
the broad west CONUS trough should be starting to traverse the upper
half of the Plains States, so have kept chance POPs in for Wednesday
night and Thursday as another frontal boundary settles south.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
scattered cumulus expected to develop prior to 19Z. Winds will
remain southerly at 12 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of 22-24
knots expected. Winds will lose their gusty character around 00Z and
back slightly toward the south-southeast this evening.
Latest numerical guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms
developing along a frontal zone stretches from northeast through
southwest Nebraska. Wind shear weighted in the lower atmosphere,
coupled with moderate to strong instability would tend to favor the
upscale growth into one or more mesoscale convective systems
overnight. With a slow southeast movement/propagation anticipated,
this activity (if it survives) would reach the terminals toward
daybreak. A PROB30 has been included for now to handle the
anticipated scattered nature of this nocturnal activity as it
reaches the Lower Missouri Valley late tonight.
Bookbinder
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1046 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.UPDATE...RECENTLY COMPLETED AN UPDATE ADDRESSING ONLY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY 60
PERCENT TERRITORY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE LINEAR COMPLEX PUSHING EAST OUT OF
NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AT LEAST
SOME DEGREE PER THE LATEST HRRR AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING EAST INTO
A MODEST BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. BESIDES...KGLD RADAR
IS ALREADY SHOWING HINTS OF A SMALL MCV FORMING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS LINE...WHICH THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO ALSO LATCH ONTO AND
KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT PASSES EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
MEANWHILE...AS I TYPE THIS...BRAND NEW ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FLARE UP CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS THE PHELPS COUNTY
AREA...SEEMINGLY TIED TO THETA-E ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY EVIDENT
MOISTURE GRADIENT/CONVERGENT ZONE AT THE 700MB LEVEL. WITH
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MASS CONVERGENCE IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL THROUGH THE NIGHT...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY FROM ANY PART OF THE CWA...AND OTHER THAN RAISING THE
SOUTHWEST TO LIKELIES...KEPT THE REST OF THE CWA IN AT LEAST 40-50
POPS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS...COULD SEE A FEW AT LEAST GET CLOSE...EITHER FROM 50-ISH
MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...OR
FROM HAIL POTENTIAL FROM MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD. VERY WEAK BULK SHEAR OF 20KT OR LESS WILL DEFINITELY BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH SOMETHING BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE DEPENDING ON THE LIFTED
LAYER...SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE. OBVIOUSLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION...BUT WOULD RATHER SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL
POCKETS OF 3+ INCH AMOUNTS AS SEEN THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPS/DEWPOINT/SKY COVER/WIND...AND WILL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT
TO REVISIT THE TRICKY THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE A LOT RECENTLY...A
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS IN PLACE REGARDING THE TIMING
AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A PASSING LIGHT
SHOWER/WEAK STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS
EVENING...OPTED TO DELAY ANY FORMAL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
THE 12-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 09Z TONIGHT AND 21Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OPTED TO GO WITH PROB 30 GROUPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR
NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IN STORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL IS JUST NOT
HIGH ENOUGH YET TO JUSTIFY A TEMPO OR PREVAILING MENTION. SHOULD
STORMS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT/DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SEVERE
CRITERIA HAIL/WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40KT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
SUMMARY...HAVE FAIRLY CONFIDENCE THAT THE FIRST 3-5 HOURS AND
FINAL 3 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE STORM-FREE...BUT THE MIDDLE
16-18 HOURS ARE DEFINITELY A QUESTION MARK YET TO BE RESOLVED.
TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
ADVERTISED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SUPPOSE A LIGHT
FOG/MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MVFR CEILING COULD
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ANY
LOWER CLOUD DECK SCATTERED FOR NOW. AS FOR WIND...CONFIDENCE IS
ACTUALLY HIGH THAT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...SWITCHING WIND TO NORTHERLY. PRIOR TO THIS FRONT
ARRIVING...LIGHT EASTERLY WIND THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE REGION CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MESSY PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
THE SRN CONUS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF
THE SWRN US COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
THINGS ARENT MUCH BETTER AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH OVERALL HIGHER
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO OUR SW FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE
IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTING WEST FROM THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST.
SAW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ONCE THOSE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...THINGS HAVE BEEN QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SEEING A
LITTLE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA...SO WILL
KEEP LOW POPS GOING THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
MAKE SOME NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...MAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ACTUALLY
HAVE MOST OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CHANCES LATER ON ACROSS THE
CWA ARE TIED TO THAT ACTIVITY SHIFTING WEST. 12Z MODEL RUNS WERENT
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...MAINLY COMING POST 06Z.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...THERE ARE SOME MODEL VARIATIONS ON
HOW MUCH/HOW FAR EAST IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP STRONG THUNDERSTORM MENTION GOING IN THE
HWO...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY...WITH A FEW MORE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ONTO/THROUGH THE
PLAINS...DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST SHIFTING INTO NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THIS
TIMING COULD BE AFFECTING BY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY
THIS EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. MODELS DEPICT THE FRONT ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 00Z. RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY...IN
THE N/NE DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STAYED JUST BELOW LIKELY POPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED BY
MODELS LIKE THE 4KM WRF...WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE GOING ON. COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DID LOWER HIGHS A TOUCH...PRIMARILY
IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AM CONCERNED IT WONT BE ENOUGH IF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS PAN OUT. CURRENTLY FORECASTING NEAR
80 IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
HOT WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR KANSAS ZONES PRIMARILY IN THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AND RACES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT
VERY CAPPED AND CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL BE CALLING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A GOOD JUMP UPWARD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SOME KANSAS ZONES MAY
NEAR 100.
MONDAY...CONTINUED HOT WITH 700MB CAP STILL IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP US DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES TO AROUND 100 OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.
TUESDAY...AM CURRENTLY CALLING FOR 90S BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
MODELS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THESE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TUESDAY EQUALLY AS HOT AS MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
FALL BACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH BY THIS TIME AND MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AND TO WARM HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ADDED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EVENING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE MORNING UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TAIL END OF NRN
PLAINS COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR NWRN CWA WHERE
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MOIST
ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING. BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK BUT DID ADD MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TWO REASONS.
THE FIRST BEING THE RICH THETA-E AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PW`S FORECAST AROUND 1.50-1.90". THE SECOND REASON IS BECAUSE OF
THE SLOW NATURE OF ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION. HPC HAS PUT THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ONSET OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL
TSTM ACTIVITY MOVES OVER SITES. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
TO CONTINUE UNTIL WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TSTMS.
KERN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ADVERTISING FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED
WITH A TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND RIDGE AMPLIFYING EAST.
SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAST FLOW WESTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER STATES. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PUSH PRECIP
WATER VALUES GREATER THAT 1.5"/KI AROUND 40...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MUCAPES CATAPULT TO 4500 J/KG. LATEST HIRES RAP AND NMM ARE
ADVERTISING ACTIVITY ERUPTING AROUND 18Z ON EDGE OF WEAK CAP...JUST
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE ALONG WELL DEFINE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE WELL INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY FOR THIS SO NO NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THAT SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES
AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
KGRI TERMINAL AREA. ALONG THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS...HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH APPEARS TO DEEPEN
SOME...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE WESTERN PANHANDLE CAN BE SEEN WITH A WIND
SHIFT IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO ON RADAR WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING OFF THE BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MAIN PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF THE PLAINS. WITH THE FRONT BEING
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM...THE MODELS TRY TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS MORE MOIST AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. INITIAL
THINKING IS MORE LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION...IN WHICH SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
UNZIPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. BY 18Z...INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE QUITE HIGH WITH NEARLY 2500 TO 4000 J/KG EXPECTED DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS MINIMAL AT BEST...BUT COULD SEE
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THREAT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AGAIN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE MAIN THINKING IS THAT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID...WITH A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AND SLIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD...AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINATION IS ALSO IN THE WORKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT HOWEVER...WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID...SATURDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INSTABILITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR 2500 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. ALSO...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT NEAR 30 KTS.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DECIDED TO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND EACH
OF THEM HAVE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT A
BOUNDARY THOUGH THEY SHOULD HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH ARE. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND IT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
609 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND THEN EVENTUALLY STALLS. UNTIL STORMS
ARRIVE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 14-17ZKTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
24-27KTS. FIRST STORMS MAY IMPACT KOFK AS SOON AS ABOUT 17Z WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED FROM 19-23Z. FIRST STORM THREAT AT
KOMA/KLNK BY ABOUT 21Z...THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ADVERTISING FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED
WITH A TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND RIDGE AMPLIFYING EAST.
SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAST FLOW WESTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER STATES. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PUSH PRECIP
WATER VALUES GREATER THAT 1.5"/KI AROUND 40...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MUCAPES CATAPULT TO 4500 J/KG. LATEST HIRES RAP AND NMM ARE
ADVERTISING ACTIVITY ERUPTING AROUND 18Z ON EDGE OF WEAK CAP...JUST
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE ALONG WELL DEFINE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE WELL INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY FOR THIS SO NO NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THAT SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES
AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
407 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ADVERTISING FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED
WITH A TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND RIDGE AMPLIFYING EAST.
SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAST FLOW WESTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER STATES. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PUSH PRECIP
WATER VALUES GREATER THAT 1.5"/KI AROUND 40...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MUCAPES CATAPULT TO 4500 J/KG. LATEST HIRES RAP AND NMM ARE
ADVERTISING ACTIVITY ERUPTING AROUND 18Z ON EDGE OF WEAK CAP...JUST
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE ALONG WELL DEFINE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE WELL INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY FOR THIS SO NO NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THAT SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES
AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AT START OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THROUGH 09Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z
AS MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH EASTERN NEBRASKA.
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DF
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
329 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS...HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH APPEARS TO DEEPEN
SOME...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE WESTERN PANHANDLE CAN BE SEEN WITH A WIND
SHIFT IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO ON RADAR WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING OFF THE BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MAIN PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF THE PLAINS. WITH THE FRONT BEING
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM...THE MODELS TRY TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS MORE MOIST AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. INITIAL
THINKING IS MORE LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION...IN WHICH SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
UNZIPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. BY 18Z...INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE QUITE HIGH WITH NEARLY 2500 TO 4000 J/KG EXPECTED DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS MINIMAL AT BEST...BUT COULD SEE
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THREAT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AGAIN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE MAIN THINKING IS THAT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID...WITH A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AND SLIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD...AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINATION IS ALSO IN THE WORKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT HOWEVER...WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID...SATURDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INSTABILITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR 2500 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. ALSO...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT NEAR 30 KTS.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DECIDED TO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND EACH
OF THEM HAVE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT A
BOUNDARY THOUGH THEY SHOULD HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH ARE. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND IT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. STILL HAVE SOME CIRRUS AROUND FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN TO THE EAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
847 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERAL
DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...
FCST WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TEMP DEWPOINT TRENDS. REGIONAL VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG QUICKLY BURNING
OFF WITH JUST SOME HIGH CI MOVING OVERHEAD. EXPECT CI TO CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING ALL IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL ENSURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S REGION WIDE. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
PER THE CURRENT AVIATION DISCUSSION, WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MUCH
FOG THIS MORNING. THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
TO OVERCOME THE DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION INSIDE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SPOTTY LIGHT FOG WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF I-81 IN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BATTLING SOME LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION EARLY
TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING MAXES ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE, AS
MIX DOWN TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN MOS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING AS MIXING WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, AND DRY ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED. FORECASTING PATCHY FOG
MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL
ONLY EDGE UP SLIGHTLY. DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN
WILL HELP DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A LITTLE WRINKLE HAS SHOWN UP IN THE 00Z GFS RUN...IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT QPF IN THE WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH OR
SO AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE...NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE RAIN FREE...YET
THE NAM ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF A WAVE DROPPING DOWN
SOUTHWARD ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AS CAN BE SEEN
VIA 500MB VORTICITY FIELD. MAJORITY OF MODELS AND ALL MOS NUMBERS
SUGGEST KEEPING THINGS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WITH FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST CAUSE ENTRAINMENT ANY THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...A SINGLE GFS RUN COMPARED TO
OTHER RUNS AND MODELS IS NOT ENOUGH FOR ME TO PLACE ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A MORE GRADUAL PACE ON SETTING UP OF THE
WARM RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SWOON
ABOVE NORMAL...IT WILL JUST TAKE LONGER FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
FOLD OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY...BACKING OFF
SLIGHTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
EXPECTING WARMEST TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR
90 CURRENTLY FIGURED FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A VERY QUIET
AND WARM PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS
THIS OCCURS...DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE DEFECTED NORTH OF THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...850 MB
TEMPS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20C BY TUE...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEWLY ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS RIDGING
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED
WITH MAINTAINING MAINLY A DRY FCST PENDING ADDITIONAL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG DEVELOPED BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z THIS MORNING, AND HAS BROUGHT
THE ELM TERMINAL INTO LIFR TERRITORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BEEN AT ALL HELPFUL, AS THE RUC SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
FAILED TO FORECAST THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR CASES IN THE PAST GENERALLY SAW FOG LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z, AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING THIS MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS FORECAST TONIGHT, AS
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR BUT WITH LESS MIXING WINDS
TO CONTEND WITH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG...MAINLY AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG/MDP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERAL
DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER THE CURRENT AVIATION DISCUSSION, WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MUCH
FOG THIS MORNING. THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
TO OVERCOME THE DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION INSIDE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SPOTTY LIGHT FOG WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF I-81 IN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BATTLING SOME LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION EARLY
TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING MAXES ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE, AS
MIX DOWN TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN MOS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING AS MIXING WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, AND DRY ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED. FORECASTING PATCHY FOG
MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND MIDATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL
ONLY EDGE UP SLIGHTLY. DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN
WILL HELP DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A LITTLE WRINKLE HAS SHOWN UP IN THE 00Z GFS RUN...IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT QPF IN THE WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH OR
SO AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE...NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE RAIN FREE...YET
THE NAM ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF A WAVE DROPPING DOWN
SOUTHWARD ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AS CAN BE SEEN
VIA 500MB VORTICITY FIELD. MAJORITY OF MODELS AND ALL MOS NUMBERS
SUGGEST KEEPING THINGS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WITH FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST CAUSE ENTRAINMENT ANY THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...A SINGLE GFS RUN COMPARED TO
OTHER RUNS AND MODELS IS NOT ENOUGH FOR ME TO PLACE ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A MORE GRADUAL PACE ON SETTING UP OF THE
WARM RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SWOON
ABOVE NORMAL...IT WILL JUST TAKE LONGER FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
FOLD OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY...BACKING OFF
SLIGHTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
EXPECTING WARMEST TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR
90 CURRENTLY FIGURED FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A VERY QUIET
AND WARM PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS
THIS OCCURS...DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE DEFECTED NORTH OF THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...850 MB
TEMPS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20C BY TUE...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEWLY ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS RIDGING
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED
WITH MAINTAINING MAINLY A DRY FCST PENDING ADDITIONAL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG DEVELOPED BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z THIS MORNING, AND HAS BROUGHT
THE ELM TERMINAL INTO LIFR TERRITORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BEEN AT ALL HELPFUL, AS THE RUC SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
FAILED TO FORECAST THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR CASES IN THE PAST GENERALLY SAW FOG LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z, AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING THIS MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS FORECAST TONIGHT, AS
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR BUT WITH LESS MIXING WINDS
TO CONTEND WITH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG...MAINLY AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG/MDP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...
OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WHILE A STALLED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW
MEANDERS OFFSHORE IN VICINITY OF BERMUDA. SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ANCHOR UNSEASONABLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH
A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CAROLINAS.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
CONTINUED NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE DELMARVA/LABRADOR
CURRENT WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CLOUD COVER.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH ONSHORE FLOW GIVEN THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
UPSTREAM /OFFSHORE/ CONDITIONS WHERE OBSERVATIONAL DATA IS
RELATIVELY SPARSE. AS SUCH...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH REGARD TO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY.
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AT LEAST SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER MOST LIKELY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE TRIAD THIS MORNING WAS A
RESULT OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD THIN OUT TO
SOME DEGREE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN CONTINUED SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE (ENHANCED BY A 300
MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE EXITING THE CAROLINA COAST AT 16Z) AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE...PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE CLOSE TO ZERO PERCENT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP DATA INDICATE A SHEAR AXIS (UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA AT 16Z) WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVELY BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER /SPRINKLES/ IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
PLAIN... THOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S...OR 79 TO 83F... COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND
WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT.
TONIGHT:
GIVEN A DRY AND SUBSIDENT COLUMN OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL LEND SOME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...
THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MAY LEAD TO CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER IN THE TRIAD PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT (BEFORE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE)...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. EXPECT RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...STRONG
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY (ALBEIT
MODIFIED MARITIME) AIR MASS AND RESULTING STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST LIKELY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS...EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY 80 TO 84F...PERHAPS 78 TO 79F IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR THOUGH
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...UPPER 50S. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINA FOOTHILLS
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING. WITH WEAK SUMMER LIKE
WINDS... LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WILL PREVENT MOST AIR PARCELS FROM LIFTING FAR OFF THE
GROUND. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE... MAINLY MONDAY...
BUT AT NO TIME SHOULD RAIN CHANCES EXCEED TEN PERCENT.
AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL... 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR
THICKNESSES RISE... USHERING IN THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY... MID 80S
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT... MID 60S
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES RISE... SENDING HIGH TEMPERATURES FIVE TO EIGHT
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN CONTINUE WEAK. AFTERNOON MIXING
HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER WITH AN INVERTED
VEE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION APPEARS IMPOSSIBLE...
BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION A RISK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE BELOW SLIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY UPPER 80S TUESDAY... THEN LOW TO MID 90S.
LOW TEMPERATURES 64 TO 69.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL
RESULT IN NE SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT AT 7KTS OR LESS...THEN INCREASE BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO NEAR 10KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KTS. A FEW
PATCHES OF STRATOCU CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BASES BETWEEN 3000-4500FT THOUGH MANY PLACES WILL HAVE
CLEAR SKIES.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SUGGEST A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPELL A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT A FEW TAF SITES EACH MORNING BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINT A THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILE SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED T-STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
149 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRONGLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING A
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND OF SC. LATEST RUC HRLY
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES YET ADDITIONAL WEAK SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SFC WIND FIELD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BY
2 AM THE LATEST...AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS
ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND TIL THIS BOUNDARIES DEPARTURE. DRIER AIR IE.
LOWER DEWPOINTS...WILL BE A TAD SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ILM
CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT MINS
AND HRLY DEWPOINTS UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...
TO ACCOMMODATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHILE OFFSHORE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY DAY AND PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES MORE BY NIGHT...THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 50S
WELL INLAND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NE TO MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF KILM AND KLBT AS OF 04Z AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. A LINE
OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
INCLUDE VCSH FOR KMYR AND KCRE TIL 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE AS A N WIND BRINGS INCREASINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AFTER SUNRISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL CAUSE N TO NE WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVELS
ENOUGH THAT LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS COULD DROP AT
TIMES TO MVFR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL BECOME DOMINATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY 5 TO 10 KT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT DURING THE THU PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS A RESULT OF THE FRONT MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AS DECENT RIDGING
FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER SE CANADA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. SPEEDS
COULD REACH AROUND 15 KT BY DAYBREAK FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS. OVERNIGHT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THE MORE DOMINANT PLAYER WITH REGARD TO SIG SEAS...
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION
COULD AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET EARLY
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF THU.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL NE FLOW TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. IN THIS COAST- PARALLEL
FLOW THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT FROM THE
COAST TO THE 20NM FORECAST ZONE BORDER...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME 6 FT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT EASE IN THE
GRADIENT TRANSLATING TO AN APPROXIMATE 5KT DROP IN SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FOR SUNDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES BUT SCEC HEADLINES
ARE TOUGH TO RULE OUT EARLY ON. AN EASTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER RESULTING IN A MORE
PRONOUNCED ABATING OF THE SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1008 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. RADAR SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. LOWERED POPS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HRRR SHOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CAPE...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY
POPS WEST OF THE VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DOWNWARD AS MOST OF THE REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE EAST OF THERE. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH FITS ONGOING
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN ND WELL. LOWERED HIGHS A TINY BIT IN
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT OTHERWISE KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AS WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EVERYWHERE BUT KBJI...AND THE IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THAT SITE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT KTVF AND KBJI THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
CEILING/VIS REDUCTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN INITIAL CONCERN IS CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES FRI NIGHT WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST MODEL. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW...SO WILL TREND THINGS A BIT
QUICKER WITH FRI NIGHT SYSTEM.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
LIKELY CROSSING INTO MN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE INTO THE EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH SHEAR AND DECENT CAPE...SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
GET TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS MAINLY IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT NO
HEADLINES ATTM.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE OUT OF THE EAST SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. PWATS WILL DECREASE AND EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN BY 12Z FRI.
ON FRI...THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WESTERN ND LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND JUST SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WITH AN INCREASING LLJ. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TONIGHTS CONVECTION...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS.
ON SAT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUING...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE
MAINLY IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES. TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUND AND WILL MAINTAIN ALLBLEND CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
THE GENERAL RULE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND CONFINED RAIN CHANCES TO AFTER MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...THINK RAINFREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO STRONG CAPPING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT CDT...SOME LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
OUNWRF SUGGESTED THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. IF THE ONGOING COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST OF LUBBOCK HOLDS
TOGETHER...IT COULD MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM CDT. IF THE
ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO HOLDS
TOGETHER...THIS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 1 AND
3 AM CDT. THESE COMPLEXES WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP STRONG COLD POOLS
TO OVERCOME THE STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
IF THESE STORMS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT...THERE WOULD BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
AVIATION...
16/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CHANCES FOR STORMS AFFECTING WESTERN OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION.
DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK UPPER
FLOW PERSISTS WITH DAILY DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NOCTURNAL STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE/PROPAGATION. GIVEN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG
NAM/EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS GREATER STORM COVERAGE
TOMORROW NIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS/LARGE
HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURN/SFC
HEATING GENERATE LARGER INSTABILITY FOR STORM GROWTH.
BY SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD MORE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL TEND SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT
GIVEN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...A PULSE STORM OR TWO
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING CAN BE REALIZED TO
BREAK THE CAP. LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH NO MEANINGFUL FORCING TO
SPEAK OF AND EXPECTED DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTION...WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A SLOW INCREASE AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD EACH
DAY.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME WITH A
FRONT SET TO MOVE TOWARD THE OK/KS BORDER REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SLOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION EXISTS IN TIMING/LOCATION THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE
FRONT TO THE OK/KS BORDER LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 92 72 92 / 20 10 10 10
HOBART OK 72 96 70 95 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 69 95 67 95 / 20 20 40 10
PONCA CITY OK 74 90 73 90 / 20 20 40 20
DURANT OK 68 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TRIM POPS ACROSS ALL BUT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STORMS COMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN HAVING TROUBLE AND WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTH.
MAIN AREA OF STORMS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING SOUTH AND EAST OF
LUBBOCK...AND LATEST RUN OF HRRR DOES KEEP DEVELOPING STORMS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE CHC POPS GOING THERE. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA IF STORMS CAN GET
GOING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 89 70 92 / 20 20 20 20
HOBART OK 67 90 69 92 / 30 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 92 73 96 / 40 20 20 10
GAGE OK 68 88 70 90 / 20 30 40 20
PONCA CITY OK 69 88 70 92 / 10 20 10 30
DURANT OK 70 89 71 93 / 40 30 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
153 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE RUC WITH HIGHEST
DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FORMED MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
PLACED A VICINITY THUNDER FOR CHA AS A STORM MAY DEVELOP NEARBY.
KEPT THE OTHER TERMINALS FREE FROM PRECIP. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SLOWLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
601 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATCHING TSTMS
AGAIN OVER THE TRANS PECOS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THIS COMPLEX. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THIS MORNING...500MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY
FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...
WE HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
HELPING KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA AS DEWPOINT VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH KABI SITTING AT 69
DEGREES...AND KBBD AT 70 DEGREES AT 2PM. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000
J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST...AND IF IT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DEVELOPS A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY 3 OR 4 PM LOCAL TIME...FURTHER DEVELOPING THAT INTO
A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THE NAM
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL QPF FARTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY...AND ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME QPF...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPE VALUES...0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WE COULD EXPECT TO SEE THESE
STORMS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE WIND AS A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
RESULT IN AN /INVERTED V/ TYPE SOUNDING AND DECENT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. THAT/S ALL DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP. WHILE WE ARE ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THE
MOMENT...IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP...WE WILL LIKELY
UPDATE THE FORECAST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WARMER THAN...BETWEEN THIS MORNING/S LOWS AND THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY WENT WITH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...AS WE/VE GENERALLY BEEN WARMER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHEN
NOT EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM...
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST US...WHILE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE EAST. THIS SETS UP A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...BUT IF IT
DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR
EAST. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL JUST SLIGHTLY...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 95 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 75 97 74 95 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 74 95 74 93 72 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...
THIS MORNING...500MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY
FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...
WE HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
HELPING KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA AS DEWPOINT VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH KABI SITTING AT 69
DEGREES...AND KBBD AT 70 DEGREES AT 2PM. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000
J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST...AND IF IT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DEVELOPS A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY 3 OR 4 PM LOCAL TIME...FURTHER DEVELOPING THAT INTO
A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THE NAM
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL QPF FARTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY...AND ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME QPF...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPE VALUES...0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WE COULD EXPECT TO SEE THESE
STORMS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE WIND AS A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
RESULT IN AN /INVERTED V/ TYPE SOUNDING AND DECENT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. THAT/S ALL DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP. WHILE WE ARE ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THE
MOMENT...IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP...WE WILL LIKELY
UPDATE THE FORECAST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WARMER THAN...BETWEEN THIS MORNING/S LOWS AND THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY WENT WITH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...AS WE/VE GENERALLY BEEN WARMER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHEN
NOT EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST US...WHILE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE EAST. THIS SETS UP A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...BUT IF IT
DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR
EAST. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL JUST SLIGHTLY...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 95 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 75 97 74 95 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 74 95 74 93 72 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
114 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
09-15Z FRIDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CAP IS ALMOST GONE ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z. HAVE PLACED
VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 20Z THROUGH 00Z PERIOD. SOME
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOR NOW HAVE PLACED BKN018 FOR THE 09-15Z PERIOD. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT
RECENT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY. THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE NEAR BOWIE TO
MCKINNEY TO CANTON. THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE SHIFT
OF A SOUTHERLY WIND TO A SOUTHEAST WIND. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD
30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 800 MB. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY BEING
ASCENDED UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL LIFT.
THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE THE 305K ISENTROPIC CHART. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OUR LIFT TO DIMINISH
AND A BREAK FROM THE STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND
NOON. THE 14Z FORECAST FROM THE HRRR ALREADY SEEMS OUT OF THE LOOP
AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH WEIGHT TO ITS FORECAST.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOCATIONS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES WHERE THERE IS HIGHER
MOISTURE. YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WAS IN PART DUE TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND 500 MB WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE 10-25 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE...25 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS LIKE YESTERDAY...AS SHEAR ISNT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO STABILIZE...AS MODELS HAVE TRIED TO
FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. GUIDANCE NOW HOLDS SOME
INSTABILITY AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THEIR OUTPUT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT I AM FORECASTING.
FOR THIS MORNING...A WEAK BOUNDARY OR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...RUNNING GENERALLY FROM PALESTINE TO EASTLAND. A FEW
STORMS HAVE FIRED IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT SEEM TO BE
WEAKENING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...CENTERED BETWEEN
ATHENS AND FAIRFIELD...HAS BECOME LARGER IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT SEVERE WARNINGS
WERE ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR STORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
CROCKETT. I HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO LEONA...AND CONTINUED POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY AN INVERTED TROF...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND MAY
PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.
WITH SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED ALL WEEK...I AM STILL FORECASTING
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. SINCE THE RIDGE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THE USUAL MID-SUMMER //DEATH RIDGE//...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INVERSION STRENGTH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 74 94 73 93 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 91 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 90 72 91 / 20 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 74 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 92 72 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 94 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 91 70 91 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1022 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS. ALTHOUGH NOT
INDICATED IN THE 15Z UPDATED TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE
18Z TAFS.
58
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES TODAY AS LINGERING
BOUNDARY HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
VFR IS EXPECTED AT METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
STRATUS AT 015 IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT GKY/DAL.
SOUTH WINDS 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL. A ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
FOR WACO...STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE
LIFTING. VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT
RECENT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY. THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE NEAR BOWIE TO
MCKINNEY TO CANTON. THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE SHIFT
OF A SOUTHERLY WIND TO A SOUTHEAST WIND. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD
30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 800 MB. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY BEING
ASCENDED UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL LIFT.
THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE THE 305K ISENTROPIC CHART. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OUR LIFT TO DIMINISH
AND A BREAK FROM THE STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND
NOON. THE 14Z FORECAST FROM THE HRRR ALREADY SEEMS OUT OF THE LOOP
AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH WEIGHT TO ITS FORECAST.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOCATIONS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES WHERE THERE IS HIGHER
MOISTURE. YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WAS IN PART DUE TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND 500 MB WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE 10-25 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE...25 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS LIKE YESTERDAY...AS SHEAR ISNT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO STABILIZE...AS MODELS HAVE TRIED TO
FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. GUIDANCE NOW HOLDS SOME
INSTABILITY AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THEIR OUTPUT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT I AM FORECASTING.
FOR THIS MORNING...A WEAK BOUNDARY OR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...RUNNING GENERALLY FROM PALESTINE TO EASTLAND. A FEW
STORMS HAVE FIRED IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT SEEM TO BE
WEAKENING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...CENTERED BETWEEN
ATHENS AND FAIRFIELD...HAS BECOME LARGER IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT SEVERE WARNINGS
WERE ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR STORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
CROCKETT. I HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO LEONA...AND CONTINUED POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY AN INVERTED TROF...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND MAY
PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.
WITH SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED ALL WEEK...I AM STILL FORECASTING
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. SINCE THE RIDGE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THE USUAL MID-SUMMER //DEATH RIDGE//...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INVERSION STRENGTH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 74 94 73 93 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 91 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 90 72 91 / 20 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 74 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 92 72 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 94 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 91 70 91 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
917 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT
RECENT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY. THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE NEAR BOWIE TO
MCKINNEY TO CANTON. THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE SHIFT
OF A SOUTHERLY WIND TO A SOUTHEAST WIND. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD
30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 800 MB. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY BEING
ASCENDED UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL LIFT.
THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE THE 305K ISENTROPIC CHART. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OUR LIFT TO DIMINISH
AND A BREAK FROM THE STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND
NOON. THE 14Z FORECAST FROM THE HRRR ALREADY SEEMS OUT OF THE LOOP
AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH WEIGHT TO ITS FORECAST.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOCATIONS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES WHERE THERE IS HIGHER
MOISTURE. YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WAS IN PART DUE TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND 500 MB WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE 10-25 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE...25 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS LIKE YESTERDAY...AS SHEAR ISNT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG.
85/NH
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES TODAY AS LINGERING
BOUNDARY HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
VFR IS EXPECTED AT METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
STRATUS AT 015 IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT GKY/DAL.
SOUTH WINDS 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL. A ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
FOR WACO...STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE
LIFTING. VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO STABILIZE...AS MODELS HAVE TRIED TO
FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. GUIDANCE NOW HOLDS SOME
INSTABILITY AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THEIR OUTPUT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT I AM FORECASTING.
FOR THIS MORNING...A WEAK BOUNDARY OR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...RUNNING GENERALLY FROM PALESTINE TO EASTLAND. A FEW
STORMS HAVE FIRED IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT SEEM TO BE
WEAKENING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...CENTERED BETWEEN
ATHENS AND FAIRFIELD...HAS BECOME LARGER IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT SEVERE WARNINGS
WERE ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR STORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
CROCKETT. I HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO LEONA...AND CONTINUED POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY AN INVERTED TROF...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND MAY
PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.
WITH SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED ALL WEEK...I AM STILL FORECASTING
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. SINCE THE RIDGE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THE USUAL MID-SUMMER //DEATH RIDGE//...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INVERSION STRENGTH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 74 94 73 93 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 91 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 90 72 91 / 20 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 74 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 92 72 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 94 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 91 70 91 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KJCT AND KBBD AS SE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF. CIGS SCATTERING OUT MID MORNING. STRATUS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KSJT KABI AND KSOA. SOUTH WINDS GUST TO 25
KTS AT KSJT AND KABI MID MORNING LEE THROUGH STRENGTHENS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS SCARCE...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE TRANSPECOS TRYING TO CROSS THE PECOS RIVER IN WESTERN
CROCKETT COUNTY. WHILE CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS REMOTE TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CAP...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS GFS
AND NAM MODELS WERE INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 10
PM.
04
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WATCHING A FEW
TSTMS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WE HAD ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION EARLY TODAY BUT THIS HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE CWA LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING MCV ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE...YET
DISCERNIBLE...BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA PER THE
KSJT WSR-88D BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS BENIGN AT THIS TIME. LOOKING
WEST...MID LEVEL RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...I ANTICIPATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERAL VERSIONS OF THE HIRES WRF
AND THE HRRR ALL AGREE IN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES.
A LOOK AT THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE DEPICTS SBCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50
KTS. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WILL GIVE WAY.
THUS...WE DO HAVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT I AM
PLAYING THIS RATHER CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW THINKING THAT THE CAP
WILL HOLD FOR THE MOST PART AND ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS...I AM ONLY
CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 00Z. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S /BUT WILL LIKELY BE LOWER IF
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP/.
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
JOHNSON
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL BE ENVELOPED BY
ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AS WELL
WHILE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN UNDERNEATH RIDGING.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE NOT EXPANDED ANY OF THE
INHERITED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO DIRECTLY INFLUENCE US...AND THAT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GET GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST TEXAS AREA...THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO OUR WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW BACK OUT TO THE PACIFIC...AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOWERED TEMPERATURES...AND THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO TRY
TO SHOW SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY WX AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 72 93 72 94 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 73 98 73 98 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 74 98 73 94 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN WEAKEN BY LATE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z THURSDAY WHICH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE...AND
ALSO THE DALHART TAF SITE...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN OR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
00Z FRIDAY. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THE CONVECTION WITH THIS TAF
FORECAST PACKAGE...HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
UPDATE...
THE 00Z KAMA /AND KDDC/ SOUNDINGS SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 700MB IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
INDICATED BY LAPS DATA. THIS CAPPING ALONG WITH A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAS KEPT THE CWA CONVECTION FREE SO FAR THIS
EVENING. CU THAT TRIED TO GROW ALONG A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT AXIS EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE HAS RECENTLY
DISSIPATED WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT
STRENGTHENING CIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WHILE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN KS HAS DISSIPATED.
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WEAK
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO WORK IN FROM
NM/FAR SOUTHERN CO OR FOR NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
MAY WORK IN FROM THE WEST...WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND CAPPING IN PLACE WILL KEEP
ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THAT THE
MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TOUGH EVEN FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE LLJ PRESENCE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NM...AND SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION SLOWLY WORKING THIS WAY...BUT KEEP THEM ON THE
LOW SIDE DUE TO ANTICIPATED WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING CONCERNS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP...THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY
TO TAP INTO ABOVE IT /MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF
STORMS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STRONG WINDS.
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL GIVING VERY MIXED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM VIRTUALLY NO ACTIVITY
INDICATED BY THE HRRR TO A SOLID LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OUN
WRF. AM SIDING WITH THE MUCH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES DUE TO THE
REASONS STATED ABOVE. ALSO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL PRESENCE TO AID IN MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT GIVEN
VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SO TO SUMMARIZE...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL. HOWEVER IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
UPPER TROUGH AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WOULD
BE THE TAF SITE WHICH COULD BE AFFECTED LATER TONIGHT BY ANY
CONVECTION. WILL HOLD OFF NOW MENTIONING IN THE TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED THE HEATING WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO BE FOR THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING...STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE NAM AND RAP...SHOW LARGE CAPE VALUES...1500
TO 3000 J/KG...AND MODEST SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SAW CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE
RAP WERE SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR KAMA...HOWEVER...EXPECT
THAT THIS WAS OVER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ALONG THE NOW RATHER
POORLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH. SO EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STORMS MOVING IN FROM NM.
TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...WITH THE GFS EVEN SHOWING THE DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES. WITH THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY SO FAR WEST...NOT
CERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THIS FAR EAST. WHEREVER IT
STALLS...IT SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. WITH EVEN WEAKER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW
TOMORROW...STORMS MAY NOT PROPAGATE VERY FAR FROM THE DRYLINE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA...EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THEN...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
TROUGH SLOWLY RETROGRESSING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH BUILDS IN
OVER TX...AND THEN RETROGRESSES ITSELF. WHAT MAKES THIS PATTERN
UNUSUAL IS THAT AT THE SAME TIME...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
SLOW...BUT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS OF
MODELS...WHICH SHOWED THE BROAD TROUGH STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT NE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE NEW SOLUTION...THERE ARE RATHER LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.
TUESDAY...IN ANOTHER STARK CONTRAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE
IS NO HINT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS IT IS DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR TO GET
STRONG COLD FRONTS THIS FAR SOUTH WITH OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
LOW OR TROUGH.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS TOMORROW...WHEN A WEAK
DRYLINE COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...RESULTING
IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
226 PM PDT Thu Jun 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A progressive flow off of the north Pacific will maintain cooler
than normal temperatures over the region for the next week. from
time to time weak disturbances will ride this flow bringing a
chance of mainly mountain showers to the area. Stronger systems
with the potential for more widespread showers will arrive for the
new work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...The last in the recent series of relatively
weak upper level short waves is transiting the region today. With
a much more stable air mass and less moisture to work with this
wave is much more benign with mainly thick mid level and high
clouds. Still...the HRRR radar extrapolation based model suggests
the potential for a few showers kicking off this evening over the
northern mountains closest to the trough base dynamic region and
instability area under the cool pool aloft...which will pass
through southern BC tonight. Otherwise...a generally benign
weather regime is expected overnight. The trough will bring a
gradient push through the gaps in the Cascades and promote breezy
evening conditions over the deep basin as surface high pressure
builds into the area.
on Friday a weak short wave ridge will become established over the
region for dryer and warmer conditions...but still not up to
normal temperature-wise. The ridging will effectively suppress
any chance of showers even in the mountains. Friday will be a
pleasant and likely mostly sunny spring day...although more like a
May spring day rather than a mid-June spring day. /Fugazzi
Friday night through Sunday night: The large scale flow across
the Pac NW will transition to a moist zonal flow Friday night
and then toward more of a troffy pattern Sunday night. We can
expect a relatively tranquil weather day on Saturday followed by
increasing precipitation chances Saturday night and Sunday.
Throughout the period, precipitation chances will be highest
across the northern and eastern mountains with mostly dry
conditions expected in the lee of the Cascades and majority of the
western Basin. Models have also trend significantly wetter for the
Palouse and Idaho Panhandle compared to previous runs and these
changes were reflected in the latest forecast.
There is a very impressive and rich moisture fetch crossing into
the Eastern Pacific Basin with AMSU satellite imagery indicating
over an 1.50" of precipitable water near 160W. A strong westerly
jet setting up between the Gulf of Alaska low and high pressure
off the CA coast will transport this moisture into the region
Saturday leading to increasing clouds but very small precipitation
chances away from the Cascade Crest and N mtns where relatively
light rainfall amounts are expected. The first signs of forcing
arrive Saturday night into Sunday per all model guidance as a
shortwave and associated frontal system press through the region.
There are some differences noted with the strength/depth of this
midlevel wave however in one form or another, there is strong
agreement that a cold front will pass through the region Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. Models have trend much wetter
with the warm sector pcpn across NE WA and N ID btwn 00-06z where
upwards of a quarter of an inch is now possible. Further
investigation suggest the presence of strong 305K isentropic
ascent coupled with a layer of 700-500mb negative theta-e lapse
rates so the potential does exist for a burst of heavy shower
activity given these conditions and moisture advecting into the
region.
Late Saturday night/early Sunday...the front slumps into the
region...in a nw to se fashion, models have come into better
agreement of showers...potentially moderate at times, setting
between Ritzville and Mullan. Combined with increasing sw
upsloping flow into the Central Idaho Panhandle Mtns...suggest the
potential for another area of higher QPF amts which as of the 12z
model runs...ranges from 0.25" on the SREF to .35" EC/NAM to .60"
via the GFS over the 6 hr period between 6-12z Sunday. Given the
slower arrival of a midlevel dry slot from previous runs and how
juicy the upstream moisture fetch is, I would not discount the
latest guidance but due to the amount of bouncing around from
previous runs...I only began to show an increase in PoPs and QPF
with expectations that this forecast will need to be further
increased given we achieve stability in the models.
The front will track east of the region early Sunday afternoon
driven by a 130kt NW jet and accompanied midlevel dry slot. This
will result in rapid clearing and drying away from the Cascade
Crest toward the Idaho Panhandle. Low level drying will quickly
cease any additional pcpn threats for points south of line from
Omak to Winchester but the cooler air, on the north side of the
jet, will renew the chance for convective showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon across NE WA and N ID. Shear will definitely be in
the moderate to strong range, but less confidence holds with the
model`s dewpoints and resultant fcst"d" CAPE values so tough to
say exactly what mode of storms if any at all this far in
advance...stay tuned.
We have warmed temperatures for Saturday and cooled slightly for
Sunday yielding temperatures slightly above normal to start the
weekend and near normal to end. /sb
Sunday night through Thursday...Models are in good agreement
through Tuesday that a 120 knot jet stream will be located south
of our area across Oregon. This will place Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho on the cold and unstable side of the
jet with a series of waves tracking into the area. This will
result in showers both days especially in the afternoon and
evening hours when the atmosphere is the most unstable. GFS and
ECMWF have the best instability over the mountains of Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle so a slight chance of
thunderstorms was kept in the forecast. The least shower coverage
will be in the lee of the Cascades due to 850mb winds of 10-20
knots downsloping off the mountains. Overall precipitation chances
were increased Monday and Tuesday based on GFS Ensemble mean pops
and the ECMWF solution. 850mb temperatures drop to around 7-10C
resulting in high temperatures in the valleys mainly in the 60s
to lower 70s which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. On Wednesday
and Thursday indications are that a ridge will begin to build with
a drying and warming trend. Although some model solutions indicate
a weak wave passing near the Canadian border on Wednesday so some
shower activity may linger over the northern Mountains. The ridge
however does not look to last long with another trough possibly
impacting the Inland Northwest beyond the extended forecast
period. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak upper level wave will pass through the region
today but the air mass is stable and most of the associated
moisture is high elevation. Thus while occasionally thick mid
level and high cirrus will prevail...ceilings at all TAF sites
will remain aoa 10 Kft MSL. A few afternoon showers are possible
over the high terrain north of the Columbia Basin and the high
Cascades. VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 18z
Friday. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 44 72 48 77 54 74 / 10 0 0 0 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 44 70 46 75 52 70 / 20 0 0 0 30 20
Pullman 43 69 45 74 52 72 / 10 0 0 0 30 20
Lewiston 51 77 52 81 58 78 / 10 0 0 0 20 10
Colville 45 78 48 80 51 77 / 20 0 0 10 20 10
Sandpoint 42 71 42 73 51 68 / 20 0 0 10 30 40
Kellogg 43 68 46 71 51 65 / 20 0 0 0 40 40
Moses Lake 49 78 54 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 50 80 55 82 58 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 44 79 49 81 53 77 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
715 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
715 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
DESPITE 2000+ MUCAPE VIA THE LATEST RAP OVER A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...NO CONVECTION AS DEVELOPED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CU
DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY JUST LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD. LATEST HRRR RUN
HINTS THAT SOMETHING COULD STILL GO ON THE BOUNDARY...BUT VERY
ISOLATED AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV DRIVING THE CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA.
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY...ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. WILL ADJUST
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER
UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING FOR OVERNIGHT CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
15.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM AND
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL
HINTING AT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE
BOUNDARY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE 12Z GFS
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING FURTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST...PLACING IT FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL EDGE THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 70S
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH BUILDING LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY AROUND IT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT WOULD DIMINISH AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FIRING AN AREA OF SHRA/TS OVER IOWA. MESO MODELS
BRING THESE STORMS GRADUALLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT THE
HRRR/ARW/NAM12/RAP HAVE A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH LATE EVENING.
INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE...BUT INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REGION. NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON HOW QUICK SOME OF THE MESO MODELS KILL OFF THE PCPN. WILL
TAILOR THE TAFS FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CHANCES.
NEXT CONCERN IS JUST HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER...LEADING TO MORE PCPN CHANCES
THROUGH INTO SAT MORNING. NAM AND OTHER MESO MODELS ARE QUICKER. NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE HERE...AND WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. WILL MAKE
UPDATES AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.
LATER ON THE DAY ON SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TS CHANCES. HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY ARE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND WHERE THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES TONIGHT. IF ITS
SLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EARLY ON SAT...CUTTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY. THUS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED. IF
THE PCPN AND SOME CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BY EARLY SAT
MORNING...WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO MONITORED WITH UPDATES AS TRENDS
BECOME CLEARER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASED SHRA/TS BY 21Z
SAT...AND WILL ADD A MENTION FOR KRST/KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
706 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE STATE OF
WISCONSIN IS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH
AN MCV SPINNING OVER IOWA. A DECAYING FRONT...WHICH SAGGED INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA.
DESPITE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING CIN...CONVERGENCE HAS
WEAKENED ENOUGH ALONG THE FRONT THAT HAS PREVENTED ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV TOMORROW MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN COLD FRONT
OVER MONTANA APPROACHES THE STATE.
TONIGHT...PWAT AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SW TO N-C WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING BUT INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
WEAKENING. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE EVENING HOURS. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKING AS A REMNANT MCV SLOWLY
TRACKS INTO SW WISCONSIN BY 12Z. AMPLE DRY AS NOTED ON THE 850MB
RAOBS OVER ILLINOIS WILL SWING NORTH AND CUTOFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT SOME PRECIP FROM THE MCV COULD REACH INTO MARSHFIELD AND
WISCONSIN RAPIDS BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO MAKE FOR A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...THOUGH NE PARTS MAY START OUT MOSTLY
CLEAR. SHOULD SEE A WARM NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY...REMNANT MCV OVER IOWA WILL SLOWLY PICK UP SPEED AS IT
MOVES TO THE NE OVER WISCONSIN. BECAUSE THE INITIAL AIRMASS WILL BE
SO DRY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE MCV SHOULD BRING AN INFLUX OF
850MB THETAE TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING...WHERE WILL KEEP MEDIUM CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE (NOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS)
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
AN 850MB THETAE AXIS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
THE MCV. THE SPC SREF DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF 1000-1250
J/KG OF ML CAPE OVER N-C WISCONSIN...WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. COULDNT MODIFY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AS THEY
LOOKED MODIFIED BY THEIR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES. IF
THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGEST
COULD SEE A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS QUITE HIGH THOUGH
(14.5KFT)...SO COULD BE MORE OF A WIND THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
HIGHS IN THE EAST COULD GET QUITE TOASTY AGAIN...ASSUMING PRECIP
DOES NOT MAKE IT IN THERE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 90 HIGHS OVER THE FOX
VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 80S OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RESIDE.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WET PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THERE APPEARED TO BE DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...SHOWING A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GONE BY EARLY
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
AND A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE MONDAY...LASTING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.
MODELS NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST SO HAVE
MADE NO MORE THAN MINOR TWEAKS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RDM
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN ON
MONDAY.
AT 3 PM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
WAUSAU WISCONSIN...TO CHARLES CITY IOWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOWED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH.
MAIN FEATURES TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND MCV FEATURE DRIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. PLAN ON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS. THE RUC TELLS A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30 TO 45 KTS. FEEL THAT THE NAM MAY BE UNDER DOING THE SHEAR A BIT
AND NOT REALLY LATCHING ONTO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS IOWA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION HAS CERTAINLY
HELPED TO REINFORCE THIS WAVE...WITH THE MCV NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE BOUNDARY FOR NON SUPERCELL TORNADO
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS EVENING IF STORMS REMAIN SURFACED BASED.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE NST PARAMETER...DROPPING
BELOW 1...SO THINKING THE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL BUT BEARS CLOSE
MONITORING. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND HEAD EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACT AS A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMPLICATES THE
FORECAST CONSIDERABLY...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY ONGOING AS THE
DAKOTAS TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND LAGS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG 0-3 KM
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CIN IN PLACE. THE ECMWF
SHOWS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY WITH 0-3 KM MUCAPE FROM 800 TO AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINKING THAT THESE ECMWF VALUES ARE MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HINDERING SURFACE HEATING. THINKING
THERE STILL IS A CHANCE AT SEEING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN
IF STORMS MOVE OVER THESE LOCATIONS. PLAN ON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY...PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
THE THE UPPER 70S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KEAN
INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH
AS 70 KTS. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT THEN WEAKENS
UNDER STRONG SURFACE HEATING. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE CONVECTION GETS GOING
WHICH WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY...THIS PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE THREAT TO SHIFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RATHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IT
WILL FEEL MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
15.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM AND
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL
HINTING AT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE
BOUNDARY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE 12Z GFS
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING FURTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST...PLACING IT FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL EDGE THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 70S
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH BUILDING LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY AROUND IT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT WOULD DIMINISH AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FIRING AN AREA OF SHRA/TS OVER IOWA. MESO MODELS
BRING THESE STORMS GRADUALLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT THE
HRRR/ARW/NAM12/RAP HAVE A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH LATE EVENING.
INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE...BUT INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REGION. NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON HOW QUICK SOME OF THE MESO MODELS KILL OFF THE PCPN. WILL
TAILOR THE TAFS FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CHANCES.
NEXT CONCERN IS JUST HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER...LEADING TO MORE PCPN CHANCES
THROUGH INTO SAT MORNING. NAM AND OTHER MESO MODELS ARE QUICKER. NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE HERE...AND WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. WILL MAKE
UPDATES AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.
LATER ON THE DAY ON SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TS CHANCES. HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY ARE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND WHERE THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES TONIGHT. IF ITS
SLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EARLY ON SAT...CUTTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY. THUS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED. IF
THE PCPN AND SOME CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BY EARLY SAT
MORNING...WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO MONITORED WITH UPDATES AS TRENDS
BECOME CLEARER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASED SHRA/TS BY 21Z
SAT...AND WILL ADD A MENTION FOR KRST/KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
242 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...PUSHING EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED THUNDERSTORM ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON.
PLAN ON ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IMPACTING THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND HEAD FOR HUDSON BAY. THE FRONT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND BECOME STATIONARY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ON
FRIDAY. THE 12Z NAM PLACES THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHEAST TO NEAR WINONA MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THE 00 ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH...STRETCHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GFS IS
IN LINE WITH THE NAM. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THE NAM DEWPOINTS LOOK A LITTLE
ON THE HIGH SIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 68 TO
75...SO NOT BUYING INTO THE LARGE CAPE VALUES IT PRODUCING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH FORCING NOTED ALOFT BUT THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KTS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. THE NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER
INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...1.21...DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DECIDED TO INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT THOSE HIGHER CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH VS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD
COVER/ALONG WITH THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE
HEATING DIMINISHES. 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEAK THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON WILL BE A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING EAST HEADED FOR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND ACT AS A WARM FRONT AS THIS FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER. A
LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH FROM THE
DAKOTAS...WILL BE PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING
OF THIS WAVE. THE LEADING WAVE APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR RAPIDLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR LAGS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHEAR APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 0-3KM MUCAPE
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA..WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PLAN ON PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA TO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
242 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
14.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA PUSHING EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO SET UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY SPARKING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
STARTS TO DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ITS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. THE ACTIVE
PATTER REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE
80S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
CURRENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM/COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING
THE SHOWERS/STORMS. EXPECT A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST HRRR AND ARW
MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE DYING OUT OF THE SHRA/TS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE RAP/NAM12/GFS ALL SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD
CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. FEEL THERE IS
MORE SUPPORT OF A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT THIS MOMENT...SO WILL
STEER THE TAFS THAT WAY.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WAVER NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHRA/TS. GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WOULD
FAVOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE NOT
TOO HIGH ON TIMING THOUGH. ANY RIPPLE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WOULD ALSO RESULT IN SHRA/TS.
EXPECT THAT TAFS WILL NEED AMENDMENTS WHEN TIMING FOR PCPN THREATS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT KRST/KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
242 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN
SD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW
WAS GENERATING AN MCS THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS IA.
SHRA/TS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THIS WAVE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE ND MCS. OTHERWISE...CLOSER TO HOME...A
FEW MID-CLOUD AND ANVIL DEBRIS CLOUD FROM OLD IA CONVECTION DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S.
WILL BE KEEPING CLOSE TRACK OF THE MCS THIS MORNING...WATCHING ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING THE MID-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH FROM MT INTO NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS TAKES
NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHEAST WITH IT...SO EXPECTING THE MCS
TO SCOOT NORTHEAST AS WELL INTO NORTHERN MN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR SOME ACCAS
GENERATION AND ISOLATED SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A MEDFORD/ARCADIA/ROCHESTER/AUSTIN LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
LIKELY KEEP AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT
ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO CENTRAL MN AS 0-3 MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 3000J/KG AND MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG
RANGE. AMPLE SHEAR ALSO PRESENT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. SO...THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR THIS LINE TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE COLD FRONT/LINE
OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A WEAKENING TREND AS CAPE
DIMINISHES AND BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SKIRTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN MN.
MAINTAINED MID-RANGE SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTERACTING WITH DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING CLOSELY AS MODELS SHOW A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. SURPRISINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ONLY PRODUCE
AROUND 500-600J/KG 0-3KM MLCAPE AND THIS COULD BE TIED INTO CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER IF MORE HEATING IS REALIZED...THERE COULD BE BE A
SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DECENT BULK
SHEAR.
FOR SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
REST OF THE PERIOD MARKED BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE/HIGH ZONAL FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS MID-RANGE SHRA/THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOCUSED ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CLUSTER OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KRST/KLSE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...AND MOVE NORTHEAST...MOST
LIKELY IMPACTING KRST BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z...WITH THE POSSIBLITY
MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. AT KLSE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON ANY STORMS TO IMPACT TERMINAL...SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT KRST AND 20
KTS AT KLSE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS..LOW-AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE ACRS THE NRN
TIER OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA...WITH MEAN TROF POSN OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND RIDGE POSN IN THE E. THAT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A
FEW DAYS...THEN THE WESTERLIES WL STRENGTHEN AND LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION WL OCCUR. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE SHOULD BE A
BROAD BUT FAIRLY STG UPR TROF CENTERED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES OR NRN
PLAINS...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THOUGH DAILY TEMPS WL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS...TEMPS WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND IF THE MEAN TROF AXIS EDGES E AS NOW
INDICATED. THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN THAN WHAT
WE/VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. OF COURSE...ACTUAL PCPN
AMNTS WL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT
REMAIN UNKNOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/FRI. ISSUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO SPILL OVER INTO THE FCST AREA ARISE EARLY AND THEN
CONT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TSTM COMPLEX
OVER ERN ND/NERN SD. IT/S BEING FED BY INSTABILITY AXIS STILL WELL
W OF THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE COMPLEX NE AND
WEAKENS IT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH THE RUC BRINGS IT E THEN TURNS
IT DUE S ACRS MN...DIRECTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ON LOCAL MESO PLOTS OVER SRN MN...AND
RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO FIT THE RUC. GET THE FEELING THIS IS GOING TO
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE IT/S A WASTE OF TIME TRYING TO
TRY AND TRACK THE FEATURE USING THE GUIDANCE AND SIMPLY KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AND USING EXTRAPOLATION IS GOING TO
WORK BETTER. AS SUCH...NEED TO KEEP POPS OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA TDA...AND PROBABLY CAN/T BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING AS
ONGOING STORMS COULD GET THERE BEFORE NOON IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
OVERALL TREND HOWEVER HAS TO BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THEY GET FARTHER E...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPEMENT
FARTHER E TO BE GREATLY LIMITED BY INFLUX OF DRY AIR CIRCULATION
BACK OUT OF DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SHRA/TSRA WL
GRADUALLY START TO EDGE E AS COLD FRONT TRAILING FM CYCLONE LIFTG
TOWARD HUDSON BAY WORKS TOWARD THE RGN. BUT THE FRONT WL START TO
SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS TO THE FCST AREA AS IT/S PARENT CYCLONE
PULLS OFF TO THE NE. DRY AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WL CONT TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO ERN WI. MAIN FCST CHG WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO
TRIM POPS OVER THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE E-C WI WL STAY DRY THROUGH FRI...WAS NOT COMFORTABLE
TOTALLY PULLING POPS OUT FOR MOST OF THAT AREA. SO BACKED DOWN FM
WHAT WE HAD GOING...AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REMOVE IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE.
WARMER AIR WL BE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SLY WINDS. THE BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WAS VERY WARM OVER E-C WI ON FRI...PROBABLY
DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN. IT/S A TRICKY FCST...BECAUSE IF THERE ARE
MORE CLDS WE WON/T WARM AS MUCH. STILL...TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
FCST SUGGESTED THE NEED TO GO WITH THE WARMER MAXES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW WITH CHALLENGING EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO MAKE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS MODEL CONCENSUS INDICATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES...IN INITIALLY
BAGGY WESTERN US TROUGH...WILL TRY AND RIDE UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF STUBBORN MEAN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS DIFFER ON
EVOLUTION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. INHERITED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY OF THE EXTENDED AND SEE NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL RUNS TO JUSTIFY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
LATEST GEM DID SUGGEST THAT POSSIBLE MCS COMING OUT OF IOWA
FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD NOT GET INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND WOULD AT BEST CLIP OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE OPER GFS WAS MUCH QUICKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTED THERE COULD BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DID
TRIM BACK POPS SOME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT REMAINED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO LOWERED POPS SOME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A BREAK IN PRECIPTATION BEHIND INITIAL DISTURBANCE. WILL LET
LATER FORECAST SHIFTS TRY AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE RESOLUTION WITH
LATER MODEL FORECASTS.
PRETTY MUCH LEFT REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS INHERITED AND RETAINED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RATHER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS AS TOO
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...VERY TRICKY FCST OVER THE NXT 24 HOURS AS ONE CLUSTER
OF TSTMS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OVER CNTRL WI (FARTHER EAST THAT
ANTICIPATED) WITH MORE TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MN AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CDFNT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL OVER ERN WI WITH
DRY AIR HANGING ON...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE RHI...AUW AND CWA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS TNGT AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC TO RESIDE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
412 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS..LOW-AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE ACRS THE NRN
TIER OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA...WITH MEAN TROF POSN OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND RIDGE POSN IN THE E. THAT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A
FEW DAYS...THEN THE WESTERLIES WL STRENGTHEN AND LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION WL OCCUR. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE SHOULD BE A
BROAD BUT FAIRLY STG UPR TROF CENTERED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES OR NRN
PLAINS...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THOUGH DAILY TEMPS WL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS...TEMPS WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND IF THE MEAN TROF AXIS EDGES E AS NOW
INDICATED. THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN THAN WHAT
WE/VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. OF COURSE...ACTUAL PCPN
AMNTS WL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT
REMAIN UNKNOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/FRI. ISSUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO SPILL OVER INTO THE FCST AREA ARISE EARLY AND THEN
CONT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TSTM COMPLEX
OVER ERN ND/NERN SD. IT/S BEING FED BY INSTABILITY AXIS STILL WELL
W OF THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE COMPLEX NE AND
WEAKENS IT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH THE RUC BRINGS IT E THEN TURNS
IT DUE S ACRS MN...DIRECTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ON LOCAL MESO PLOTS OVER SRN MN...AND
RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO FIT THE RUC. GET THE FEELING THIS IS GOING TO
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE IT/S A WASTE OF TIME TRYING TO
TRY AND TRACK THE FEATURE USING THE GUIDANCE AND SIMPLY KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AND USING EXTRAPOLATION IS GOING TO
WORK BETTER. AS SUCH...NEED TO KEEP POPS OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA TDA...AND PROBABLY CAN/T BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING AS
ONGOING STORMS COULD GET THERE BEFORE NOON IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
OVERALL TREND HOWEVER HAS TO BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THEY GET FARTHER E...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPEMENT
FARTHER E TO BE GREATLY LIMITED BY INFLUX OF DRY AIR CIRCULATION
BACK OUT OF DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SHRA/TSRA WL
GRADUALLY START TO EDGE E AS COLD FRONT TRAILING FM CYCLONE LIFTG
TOWARD HUDSON BAY WORKS TOWARD THE RGN. BUT THE FRONT WL START TO
SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS TO THE FCST AREA AS IT/S PARENT CYCLONE
PULLS OFF TO THE NE. DRY AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WL CONT TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO ERN WI. MAIN FCST CHG WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO
TRIM POPS OVER THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE E-C WI WL STAY DRY THROUGH FRI...WAS NOT COMFORTABLE
TOTALLY PULLING POPS OUT FOR MOST OF THAT AREA. SO BACKED DOWN FM
WHAT WE HAD GOING...AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REMOVE IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE.
WARMER AIR WL BE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SLY WINDS. THE BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WAS VERY WARM OVER E-C WI ON FRI...PROBABLY
DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN. IT/S A TRICKY FCST...BECAUSE IF THERE ARE
MORE CLDS WE WON/T WARM AS MUCH. STILL...TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
FCST SUGGESTED THE NEED TO GO WITH THE WARMER MAXES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW WITH CHALLENGING EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO MAKE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS MODEL CONCENSUS INDICATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES...IN INITIALLY
BAGGY WESTERN US TROUGH...WILL TRY AND RIDE UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF STUBBORN MEAN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS DIFFER ON
EVOLUTION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. INHERITED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY OF THE EXTENDED AND SEE NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL RUNS TO JUSTIFY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
LATEST GEM DID SUGGEST THAT POSSIBLE MCS COMING OUT OF IOWA
FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD NOT GET INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND WOULD AT BEST CLIP OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE OPER GFS WAS MUCH QUICKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTED THERE COULD BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DID
TRIM BACK POPS SOME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT REMAINED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO LOWERED POPS SOME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A BREAK IN PRECIPTATION BEHIND INITIAL DISTURBANCE. WILL LET
LATER FORECAST SHIFTS TRY AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE RESOLUTION WITH
LATER MODEL FORECASTS.
PRETTY MUCH LEFT REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS INHERITED AND RETAINED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RATHER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS AS TOO
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA
ATTM...WITH JUST PASSING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLDS. AT THIS POINT DON/T
PLAN TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AS BEST
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED W OF THE AREA. BUT WL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AND MAKE FINAL DECISION AT ISSUANCE TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SKOWRONSKI/ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN
SD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW
WAS GENERATING AN MCS THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS IA.
SHRA/TS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THIS WAVE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE ND MCS. OTHERWISE...CLOSER TO HOME...A
FEW MID-CLOUD AND ANVIL DEBRIS CLOUD FROM OLD IA CONVECTION DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S.
WILL BE KEEPING CLOSE TRACK OF THE MCS THIS MORNING...WATCHING ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING THE MID-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH FROM MT INTO NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS TAKES
NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHEAST WITH IT...SO EXPECTING THE MCS
TO SCOOT NORTHEAST AS WELL INTO NORTHERN MN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR SOME ACCAS
GENERATION AND ISOLATED SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A MEDFORD/ARCADIA/ROCHESTER/AUSTIN LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
LIKELY KEEP AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT
ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO CENTRAL MN AS 0-3 MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 3000J/KG AND MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG
RANGE. AMPLE SHEAR ALSO PRESENT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. SO...THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR THIS LINE TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE COLD FRONT/LINE
OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A WEAKENING TREND AS CAPE
DIMINISHES AND BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SKIRTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN MN.
MAINTAINED MID-RANGE SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTERACTING WITH DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING CLOSELY AS MODELS SHOW A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. SURPRISINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ONLY PRODUCE
AROUND 500-600J/KG 0-3KM MLCAPE AND THIS COULD BE TIED INTO CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER IF MORE HEATING IS REALIZED...THERE COULD BE BE A
SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DECENT BULK
SHEAR.
FOR SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
REST OF THE PERIOD MARKED BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE/HIGH ZONAL FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS MID-RANGE SHRA/THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY EDGES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST. IN ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO NEAR 22 KNOTS AT KLSE AND 28 KNOTS AT KRST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES WILL COME AFTER 02Z AT KLSE AND 20Z AT KRST. IF THIS
CONVECTION DOES IMPACT THE TAF SITES...SOME CEILINGS COULD DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
AT 3 PM...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LAPS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG 800-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE LATEST RAP CONTINUES
TO SHOW THAT THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE BAND OF SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR...EAST ARW...AND EAST NMM.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 13.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG
925 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS REGION. ALL OF THE MESO MODELS AND BROADER SCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE WEST OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO
DIAMOND LAKE WISCONSIN LINE.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT
THERE WILL INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
NORTHERN WESTERN WISCONSIN AS A STRONG WAVE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BULK SHEARS CLIMB ABOVE 40 KNOTS ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES.
THE NAM/WRF WOULD SUGGEST EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS MAY BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND IT WOULD INCLUDE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THE SHEAR IS GOOD...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THAT DEW POINTS IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND IF THIS IS TRUE THAN THE CAPES MAY BE TOO HIGH TOO.
THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EVOLVE INTO A WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOLS COALESCE.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THIS...THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE BULK SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AHEAD OF
IT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT
THE AREA MAY BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION. DUE TO THIS THE ALL BLEND POPS WERE REDUCED SOME.
LOOKING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. HOWEVER
LOOKING WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MOVING FROM PHASE 6 TO
7...THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY EDGES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST. IN ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO NEAR 22 KNOTS AT KLSE AND 28 KNOTS AT KRST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES WILL COME AFTER 02Z AT KLSE AND 20Z AT KRST. IF THIS
CONVECTION DOES IMPACT THE TAF SITES...SOME CEILINGS COULD DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS IS QUITE NOISY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE FEATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE RESPECTIVE MCS COMPLEXES. BUBBLE HIGHS
AND WAKE LOWS RAN FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS MCS/MCC WAS NEAR KFOD WITH ANOTHER NEAR
KCDJ. THE MAIN FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO A
LOW NEAR KPIR AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO KCYS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SOME 70S IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ALONG WITH RAP/GEM TRENDS SEEM TO DEPICT
REASONABLE WELL HOW THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD EVOLVE TODAY/TONIGHT.
RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NNE THROUGH 12Z AND SHOULD BE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD THE CONVECTIVE TEMP. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS SKIES SHOULD ALSO PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING STRONGER
SOLAR INSOLATION TO OCCUR.
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE MCS/LIFT TOOLS WHEN APPLIED TO THE GEM AND
EXTRAPOLATING THE 12HR RAP FCST INDICATE ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS MCS SHOULD TURN SEVERE AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI VECTORS. AT THE SAME TIME
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THE ONE CONCERN TO THIS SCENARIO IS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. RAP TRENDS AND THE GEM SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE FCST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI SHOULD STEAL A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE INFLOW FOR STORMS OVER THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THINGS WOULD DEVELOP JUST RIGHT...A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A KSQI TO KOTM
LINE.
TONIGHT THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWFA AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING
UPON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY END ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY. ..08..
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM BEGIN WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND
WAA LEADING TO A TOASTY BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AND END WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXIT MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT IN THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY THAT EVENING AND
RESULTING WAA MAY SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW SINCE THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS AS A RESULT. GFS CONTINUES FORECASTING
VERY POORLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...THUS
BELIEVE ITS CONTRIBUTION TO GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS TOO COOL.
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC
WITH INCONSISTENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AMONGST EACH OTHER AND AS
OBSERVED VIA DPROG/DT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GEM
HAVE INDICATED SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
SLOWER AS A CLOSED LOW OR QUICKER AS AN OPEN WAVE. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO THE FRONTAL
STRENGTH WILL BE KEY TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES. FAVORED THE OPEN
TROUGH SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS CAPE AND PWS ARE
SUSPECT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ISSUE WITH POOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. THE GFS CURRENTLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
MIDDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER...SO AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT PASSAGE WOULD BE AT A FAVORABLE TIME OF THE DAY. WOLF
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT ALL THE TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE OVERNIGHT FOR KCID/KDBQ
TERMINALS. THEN AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
THE TERMINALS WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
SATURDAY PM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NICHOLS
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/WOLF/WDN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
537 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0545L: MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO AREA OF STRATUS MOVING WWRD
ACROSS THE FA. ALSO A VERY MINOR TWEAK MADE TO THE HRLY TEMPS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE W/ LATEST READINGS...
PREV DISC: ONLY ISSUE THRU THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF STRATUS
CURRENTLY SPREADING WWRD ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS ATTM... THE HRRR MDL
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND FCSTS THIS CLD COVER TO
SPREAD WWRD ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM.
THEREAFTER...STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED TO MIX THESE CLDS OUT ALL
AREAS W/ SOME MINOR CONCERN AS TO HOW QUICK THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT SCTD SKIES MOST AREAS
BY 14-15Z. MOST RH PROGS THEN PUSH THIS MOISTURE JUST S AND SW OF
THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVE AT WHICH TIME IT IS ADVECTED NWRD ACROSS
OUR WRN COASTAL AREAS AND INTO OUR SWRN ZNS. WILL SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN CLDS ACROSS OUR SRN AND SWRN AREAS OVERNIGHT TNGT...
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CLOUDINESS TDY AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TDY AND TNGT SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT AS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM
LABRADOR...ACROSS OUR REGION AND DOWN THE E COAST CONTS TO PROVIDE
THE REGION W/ PLEASANT TEMPS/RH`S...MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVING
IN OFF THE OCEAN EARLY EACH MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DOWNEAST AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MID WEEK. EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE DRY AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT TRICKY, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT. THE
NEW 00Z GFS SAGS THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
IT OVER NORTHERN MAINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING IT THROUGH DOWNEAST BY THAT EVENING. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE TRIED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. ALSO, BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE FRONTAL PASSAGES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. IF THE NEW ECMWF IS CORRECT, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVERYONE WILL EASILY REACH
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LARGE AREA OF STRATUS W/ MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING OUR FAR ERN AREAS W/ KHUL MVFR FOR THE LAST HR OR
SO. THIS CLD DECK EXPECTED TO CONT TO SPREAD WWRD W/ KCAR/KPQI
EXPECTED TO GO MVFR AT ANY TIME. PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE CIGS...EXPECT CONT
WWRD SPREAD W/ KBGR AND KBHB ALSO BECOMING AFFECTED IN THE NEXT HR
OR SO. KFVE COULD REMAIN JUST N OF THIS DECK AND WILL JUST CARRY A
TEMPO COND FOR NOW. BY LATER THIS AM...EXPECT STRONG INSOLATION TO
MIX THESE CIGS OUT THO TUF TO SAY IF THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER NEAR THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PSBL FOG/STRATUS
LATER TNGT FOR OUR SRN TAF SITES...
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AT KBHB AND PERHAPS KBGR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG THRU TNGT. ATTM...AREA OF
STRATUS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS NB AND THE BAY OF FUNDY AND JUST
ENTERING OUR FAR NERN WATERS. IN THE NEAR TERM EXPECT JUST THIS
STRATUS W/ NO ISSUES FROM FOG BUT FOG CHCS APPEAR TO INCREASE LATER
TNGT/ERLY SUN SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG FOR LATER TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
326 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY ISSUE THRU THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY
SPREADING WWRD ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS ATTM... THE HRRR MDL SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND FCSTS THIS CLD COVER TO SPREAD WWRD
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM.
THEREAFTER...STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED TO MIX THESE CLDS OUT ALL
AREAS W/ SOME MINOR CONCERN AS TO HOW QUICK THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT SCTD SKIES MOST AREAS
BY 14-15Z. MOST RH PROGS THEN PUSH THIS MOISTURE JUST S AND SW OF
THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVE AT WHICH TIME IT IS ADVECTED NWRD ACROSS
OUR WRN COASTAL AREAS AND INTO OUR SWRN ZNS. WILL SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN CLDS ACROSS OUR SRN AND SWRN AREAS OVERNIGHT TNGT...
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CLOUDINESS TDY AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TDY AND TNGT SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT AS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM
LABRADOR...ACROSS OUR REGION AND DOWN THE E COAST CONTS TO PROVIDE
THE REGION W/ PLEASANT TEMPS/RH`S...MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVING
IN OFF THE OCEAN EARLY EACH MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DOWNEAST AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MID WEEK. EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE DRY AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT TRICKY, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT. THE
NEW 00Z GFS SAGS THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
IT OVER NORTHERN MAINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING IT THROUGH DOWNEAST BY THAT EVENING. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE TRIED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. ALSO, BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE FRONTAL PASSAGES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. IF THE NEW ECMWF IS CORRECT, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVERYONE WILL EASILY REACH
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LARGE AREA OF STRATUS W/ MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING OUR FAR ERN AREAS W/ KHUL MVFR FOR THE LAST HR OR
SO. THIS CLD DECK EXPECTED TO CONT TO SPREAD WWRD W/ KCAR/KPQI
EXPECTED TO GO MVFR AT ANY TIME. PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE CIGS...EXPECT CONT
WWRD SPREAD W/ KBGR AND KBHB ALSO BECOMING AFFECTED IN THE NEXT HR
OR SO. KFVE COULD REMAIN JUST N OF THIS DECK AND WILL JUST CARRY A
TEMPO COND FOR NOW. BY LATER THIS AM...EXPECT STRONG INSOLATION TO
MIX THESE CIGS OUT THO TUF TO SAY IF THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE
LONGER NEAR THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PSBL FOG/STRATUS
LATER TNGT FOR OUR SRN TAF SITES...
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AT KBHB AND PERHAPS KBGR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG THRU TNGT. ATTM...AREA OF
STRATUS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS NB AND THE BAY OF FUNDY AND JUST
ENTERING OUR FAR NERN WATERS. IN THE NEAR TERM EXPECT JUST THIS
STRATUS W/ NO ISSUES FROM FOG BUT FOG CHCS APPEAR TO INCREASE LATER
TNGT/ERLY SUN SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG FOR LATER TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0110L: PESKY AREA OF STRATUS CONTS TO PUSH WWRD INTO OUR
FAR ERN AREAS INCLUDING KHUL ATTM... HAVE BEEFED UP CLD COVER
ACROSS ERN AREAS AND HAVE MOVED THIS CLD COVER FURTHER W - MORE IN
LINE W/ THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES...
930 PM UPDATE: WE ARE WATCHING THE WRN XTNT OF OCEAN LOW ST/SC
ADVCG TOWARD DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE NB/ME BORDER FROM
ERN NB SINCE SKY GRIDS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLDNSS TO SPILL INTO
ERN ZONES MSLY S OF NE AROOSTOOK BY DAYBREAK...NO SIG CHGS ATTM TO
FCST GRIDS. LOADED 9 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND MERGE THEM TO FCST
OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 5 AM.
600 PM UPDATE: SFC HI PRES FROM THE NE MARITIME PROVS OF CAN CONT
TO BRING CLR TO MCLR SKIES TO THE FA ERLY THIS EVE. ONLY CHG WAS
TO LOAD 5 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND MERGE THEM TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS
POSTED AT 5 AM. WE SHARPENED THE HRLY TEMP DROP OFF AFT SUNSET
BASED ON YSDY`S EVE TREND...WITH OF COURSE MILDER TEMPS BY 5 TO 7
DEG F DUE TO THE FALL OFF BEGINNING FROM WARMER HI TEMPS FROM LATE
THIS AFTN. REST OF NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS REMAIN THE SAME FROM
LAST UPDATE.
ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE CONTINUES WITH CUMULUS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON COUNTY.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. AN EASTERLY WIND
NEAR H925 IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH AN INCREASE IN H850 AND H925 MOISTURE...EXPECT A FEW MORE
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE FORECAST AREA THAN OBSERVED TODAY.
WITH A SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL CREEP INTO THE MID
70S FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY...ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND RESULTANT
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD AFFECT THE DOWNEAST COAST DURING
MOSTLY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS DURING THIS TIME WITH ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT EITHER LATER TUESDAY OR LATER WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT
THE FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD THEN PERSIST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 0110L: FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MVFR CIGS AT LEAST AT OUR ERN TAF SITES INTO
EARLY AM W/ THESE CONDS PSBLY REACHING KFVE AS WELL AS KBGR AND
KBHB...
PREV DISC: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR HUL AND BHB
EARLY SATURDAY AM BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LIFT.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD AFFECT THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED. WAVE HTS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR 2 FEET. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/VJN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY COMFY THIS EVE W/ TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE 60S...AND DEWPTS DN
INTO THE L/M50S. SKC OVR THE FA...THOUGH THERE IS PTNTL FOR
SC...ESP INVOF CST (ESP SE VA/NE NC) LT. NE WNDS STILL RMNG
GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH INVOF IMMEDIATE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY
55-60...EXCEPT 60-65 IN THE CSTL/FAR SE ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
MID ATLC REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENLY STAY
EASTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL...AND OTHER THAN FAIR WX CU (AND
SOME OCCNL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST) SKIES WILL AVG OUT MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVG W/ HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE LWR 80S WELL INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. NORTHEAST/ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME
LESS BREEZY EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT LATE SUN INTO
MON...WITHGFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW AND MSTR/CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADDED 20% POPS IN THE PIEDMONT FOR
MONDAY...AS BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT STILL STAYS OFF TO OUR N/W. HIGH
TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FOR MON...MAINLY 80-85.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TOWARD MID WEEK.
THE PESKY LOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON
FRIDAY AND BASED ON CONSENSUS BETWEEN HPC GUIDE AND 00Z MOS
GUIDE...INCLUDED SLGT CHC TSTMS ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTN TSTM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST
AT THIS POINT.
DID SOME BLENDING BETWEEN THE WARMER HPC GUIDE...COOLER MOS GUIDE
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
THIS SUMMER HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90
WELL INLAND TUESDAY INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID 90S WELL INLAND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TUESDAY MRNG WARM TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC OBS / SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PESKY SC ARND 2K FT SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...HAVE ADDED A FEW
HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS CLOUD DECK AT ORF/PHF/ECG. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. N-NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY (15-20 KTS) ACROSS
SERN COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA FOR SOUTHERN MOST PART OF CHES BAY THROUGH 4 AM BASED
ON LATEST OBS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THIS HEADLINE INTO SATURDAY BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL 4 AM PACKAGE TO DECIDE THAT.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LOWER BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND THE PORTION
OF THE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. THIS EXTENSION WAS MAINLY BASED ON THE RUC WIND FCST THAT
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR WINDS OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 5 FT OR HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCA CONTINUES IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF FORECAST.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST
SOUTH OF KEARNEY. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRACK IS ESTIMATED TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD EASILY PASS OVER THE TAF SITE OR JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO COVER
THESE CHANCES WITH TEMPOS AND PROB 30 GROUPS AS SHOWERS COULD
FIZZLE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TAF SITE. EXPECTING LOWERED CEILINGS
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
UPDATE...RECENTLY COMPLETED AN UPDATE ADDRESSING ONLY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY 60
PERCENT TERRITORY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE LINEAR COMPLEX PUSHING EAST OUT OF
NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AT LEAST
SOME DEGREE PER THE LATEST HRRR AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING EAST INTO
A MODEST BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. BESIDES...KGLD RADAR
IS ALREADY SHOWING HINTS OF A SMALL MCV FORMING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS LINE...WHICH THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO ALSO LATCH ONTO AND
KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT PASSES EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
MEANWHILE...AS I TYPE THIS...BRAND NEW ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FLARE UP CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS THE PHELPS COUNTY
AREA...SEEMINGLY TIED TO THETA-E ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY EVIDENT
MOISTURE GRADIENT/CONVERGENT ZONE AT THE 700MB LEVEL. WITH
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MASS CONVERGENCE IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL THROUGH THE NIGHT...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL POPS
COMPLETELY FROM ANY PART OF THE CWA...AND OTHER THAN RAISING THE
SOUTHWEST TO LIKELIES...KEPT THE REST OF THE CWA IN AT LEAST 40-50
POPS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS...COULD SEE A FEW AT LEAST GET CLOSE...EITHER FROM 50-ISH
MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...OR
FROM HAIL POTENTIAL FROM MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD. VERY WEAK BULK SHEAR OF 20KT OR LESS WILL DEFINITELY BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH SOMETHING BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE DEPENDING ON THE LIFTED
LAYER...SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE. OBVIOUSLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION...BUT WOULD RATHER SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL
POCKETS OF 3+ INCH AMOUNTS AS SEEN THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPS/DEWPOINT/SKY COVER/WIND...AND WILL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT
TO REVISIT THE TRICKY THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE REGION CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MESSY PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
THE SRN CONUS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF
THE SWRN US COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
THINGS ARENT MUCH BETTER AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH OVERALL HIGHER
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO OUR SW FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE
IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTING WEST FROM THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST.
SAW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ONCE THOSE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...THINGS HAVE BEEN QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SEEING A
LITTLE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA...SO WILL
KEEP LOW POPS GOING THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
MAKE SOME NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...MAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ACTUALLY
HAVE MOST OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CHANCES LATER ON ACROSS THE
CWA ARE TIED TO THAT ACTIVITY SHIFTING WEST. 12Z MODEL RUNS WERENT
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...MAINLY COMING POST 06Z.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...THERE ARE SOME MODEL VARIATIONS ON
HOW MUCH/HOW FAR EAST IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP STRONG THUNDERSTORM MENTION GOING IN THE
HWO...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY...WITH A FEW MORE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ONTO/THROUGH THE
PLAINS...DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST SHIFTING INTO NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THIS
TIMING COULD BE AFFECTING BY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY
THIS EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. MODELS DEPICT THE FRONT ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 00Z. RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY...IN
THE N/NE DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STAYED JUST BELOW LIKELY POPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED BY
MODELS LIKE THE 4KM WRF...WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE GOING ON. COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DID LOWER HIGHS A TOUCH...PRIMARILY
IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AM CONCERNED IT WONT BE ENOUGH IF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS PAN OUT. CURRENTLY FORECASTING NEAR
80 IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
HOT WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR KANSAS ZONES PRIMARILY IN THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AND RACES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT
VERY CAPPED AND CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL BE CALLING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A GOOD JUMP UPWARD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SOME KANSAS ZONES MAY
NEAR 100.
MONDAY...CONTINUED HOT WITH 700MB CAP STILL IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP US DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES TO AROUND 100 OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.
TUESDAY...AM CURRENTLY CALLING FOR 90S BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
MODELS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THESE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TUESDAY EQUALLY AS HOT AS MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
FALL BACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH BY THIS TIME AND MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 77 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE MANY WITH A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES NEARLY EVERY DAY. SOME DAYS WILL HAVE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING BIGGER RAINS AND RIVER RISES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER
AMES IA TONIGHT AS IT ROTATES ECHOES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON ITS
EASTERN SIDE. ONLY SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AND NOW MANY SITES IN IA ARE JUST REPORTING CLOUDS.
A SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING. 00Z RAOBS AGAIN QUITE DRY
WITH KDVN SHOWING 20C+ DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH ITS
DEPTH...AND KMPX ISNT FAR BEHIND WITH ABOUT ONLY AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH THE
DRY SOILS AND AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN WI AND WETTER SOILS AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR IN WESTERN WI/MN/IA. THE AXIS OF 68-70F
DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM KBRF-KLSE-KRST STILL HAS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WITH IT. A N-S COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER
TODAY IS CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECREASING PER WARMING CLOUD TOPS. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE 16.00Z MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE AMES IA LOW TRACK IS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE
CIRCULATION IS HAVING DIFFICULTIES GENERATING RAINFALL IN THE DRY
AIR MASS THAT IT IS LIVING IN. A DIURNAL PULSE UP IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPANSE OF CLOUD AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BELIEVE IT WILL NOT BE AS SEEN FRIDAY IN IOWA AS CLEAR SKIES
FOR MANY HOURS OCCURRED THERE. SOME INSTABILITY AND PULSE SHOULD
OCCUR MAINLY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA OF WI BY AFTERNOON. THIS
AGREED ON BY MANY 16.00Z MODELS AND GFS WRF RUN LOCALLY. 16.06Z
NAM ALSO IN THIS CAMP AND 16.00Z HI RES WRF NMM. HOWEVER...OTHERS
ARE MORE LIMITED /HI RES 16.00Z WRF ARW/ AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY
CLOUDS...SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS. HAVE TAKEN HIGHS DOWN ABOUT 5F IN
WI TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
AS THE DAKOTAS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST FOR A PERFECT PASSAGE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING FAVORING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL AMES LOW WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BELIEVE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT MOVING IN WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
TAKING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST T/TD AND THE 16.00Z NAM
SOUNDING...ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS PRESENT AT 21Z. SHEAR
REMAINS LIMITED IN THE LOWER 0-3KM...BUT AROUND 30-35 KTS.
SO...THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR CONVECTION AND BOWING SEGMENTS
FAVORING DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL LIMITATION THAT
IS A CONCERN IS THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
FOLLOWING THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW PASSAGE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE CONVERGENCE
ON THE FRONT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND COULD LEAD TO LOWER SEVERE
POTENTIAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE RAIN COVERAGE OVERALL.
BOTTOM LINE TODAY IS STILL THAT SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED
AND ISOLATED...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. PULSE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE ARE THE THREATS. THE MAIN TIMING IS 21-03Z ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LIMITING INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT AND POSSIBLY INTERFERING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER
WHERE STORMS WOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS. STORMS MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN
AND DIE AS THEY APPROACH THE RIVER PER STATED LIMITATIONS.
SO...SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN AREAL EXTENT.
ALL WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS BEAUTIFUL.
THE NEXT WEATHER THREAT IS A RAPIDLY RETURNING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE SURGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VERY
GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON STRONG
ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE LEADING TO
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE MN RIVER OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
INCREASED FURTHER AND WITH CORFIDI VECTORS POINTING TOWARD A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT...ENTIRE AREA MAY SEE THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...A
VERY STRONG CAPPING AND WARM LAYER IS COMING IN BEHIND AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM. CONSENSUS MODEL PARAMETER SPACE FOR THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS SEVERE QUITE LIKELY NORTH OF I-90 WITH 2000 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE...DEEP STRONG SHEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WOULD ERUPT
AS AN OVERNIGHT THREAT AND TRANSITION TO A LARGE BOW ECHO
SYSTEM MONDAY. THIS IS A PERIOD TO WATCH. HAVE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
THERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH. WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO
FOR THIS PERIOD. SPC DAY 3 LOOKS APPROPRIATE. HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY WITH VERY WARM AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
MONDAYS FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND AGAIN SEES A MOISTURE SURGE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL MN PER 16.00Z ECMWF/NAM. THIS DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE
AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR STORMS
TO POSSIBLY BE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. I-90 AND NORTH APPEARS TO AGAIN
BE THE TARGET. THIS CONVECTION WOULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG SHEAR AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...THIS IS MORE RAIN TO POTENTIALLY THE
SAME AREA. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION ON THIS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES THE THEME OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING ACTIVE
IN THE AREA. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A DECREASING RAINFALL EVENT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...ONLY TO
SETTLE BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST FLOW IMPINGING ON BOUNDARY AND CONVECTING. BY
THIS TIME...SHOULD IT BE IN THE I-90 CORRIDOR...FLOODING COULD BE
A REAL ISSUE. WHILE THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENT IS BOTH FURTHER OUT
IN TIME AND LOOKS TO BE OF ONLY MODERATE INTENSITY...IT STILL IS A
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRYING PATTERN
THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF IA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE
STARTS TO SHIFT MORE EAST. HRRR CAPTURES THIS AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT
-SHRA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT TO KRST/KLSE. LATEST RAP MODEL RUN CONTINUES
TO POINT TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN
WI...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY TS WITH CURRENT PCPN. WILL EASE BACK THE
EXPECTED PCPN CHANCES AS A RESULT FOR KRST/KLSE...AND GO WITH VCSH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EARLY ON SATURDAY THAT SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE COULD STILL BE A PLAYER
AT KRST/KLSE. VARIOUS MESO MODELS POINT TO A REFIRING AROUND THE
SHORTWAVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GOING TO BANK ON IT BEING
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT KRST/KLSE.
LATER ON THE DAY ON SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TS CHANCES. HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY ARE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND WHERE THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES TONIGHT. IF ITS
SLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EARLY ON SAT...CUTTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY. THUS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED. IF
THE PCPN AND SOME CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BY LATE SAT
MORNING...WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASED SHRA/TS
THREAT AROUND 22Z SAT...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION FOR
KRST/KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
THIS SET OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RAISED THE LEVEL OF CONCERN FOR
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE PERIOD WAS ADVERTISED AS AN ACTIVE PERIOD
FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN OUR WEB NEWS STORIES AND HWO...THIS ROUND
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF FLOODING RAINS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. A CLASSIC FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOODING PATTERN
COULD SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE INGREDIENTS OF VERY WARM MOIST
AIR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ISENTROPICALLY RISING TO
THE NORTH RELEASING ITS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS OF OVER 4 KM...AND HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE DAYTIME WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS ARE ALL PRESENT. IT APPEARS MULTI-INCH RAIN
EVENTS COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EACH OF THE DAYS FROM MON-
WED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE CUMULATIVE AFFECTS COULD
CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONFIDENCE STILL IS NOT HIGH ON THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THIS WILL BE KEY TO THE RAIN FALL PLACEMENT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
715 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
DESPITE 2000+ MUCAPE VIA THE LATEST RAP OVER A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...NO CONVECTION AS DEVELOPED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CU
DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY JUST LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD. LATEST HRRR RUN
HINTS THAT SOMETHING COULD STILL GO ON THE BOUNDARY...BUT VERY
ISOLATED AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV DRIVING THE CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA.
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY...ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. WILL ADJUST
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER
UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING FOR OVERNIGHT CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
15.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM AND
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL
HINTING AT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE
BOUNDARY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE 12Z GFS
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING FURTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST...PLACING IT FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL EDGE THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 70S
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF IA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE
STARTS TO SHIFT MORE EAST. HRRR CAPTURES THIS AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT
-SHRA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT TO KRST/KLSE. LATEST RAP MODEL RUN CONTINUES
TO POINT TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN
WI...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY TS WITH CURRENT PCPN. WILL EASE BACK THE
EXPECTED PCPN CHANCES AS A RESULT FOR KRST/KLSE...AND GO WITH VCSH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EARLY ON SATURDAY THAT SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE COULD STILL BE A PLAYER
AT KRST/KLSE. VARIOUS MESO MODELS POINT TO A REFIRING AROUND THE
SHORTWAVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GOING TO BANK ON IT BEING
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT KRST/KLSE.
LATER ON THE DAY ON SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TS CHANCES. HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY ARE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND WHERE THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES TONIGHT. IF ITS
SLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EARLY ON SAT...CUTTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY. THUS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED. IF
THE PCPN AND SOME CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BY LATE SAT
MORNING...WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASED SHRA/TS
THREAT AROUND 22Z SAT...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION FOR
KRST/KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1140 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION COMPRISED OF RIDGING FROM THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS. OUR LOCAL AREA IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 850MB. A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
ADVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS WORKED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY
OUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS DRIER IS IS VERY EVIDENT ON WV AND IN THE
12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE MARKED DRYING WAS MEASURED ABOVE
600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
RIDGING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PENINSULA AND NE GULF. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS PROVIDING A NE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
THE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ONE TRAVELS...AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
GENERALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
&&
.UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST BASED ON
EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF BRADENTON. THE LIGHTER GRADIENT DOWN TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY STILL ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE NE
SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE MID-LEVELS. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THE GRADIENT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIKELY PREVENT THE
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS COMBINED WITH
AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT CAN REACH A SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY
ENTRAIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR RESULTING IN A RAPID DECAY. HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2
OF 90 UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 01-02Z WITH
THE DIMINISHING SEA-BREEZE...AND WILL END ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE COASTAL LAND ZONES AFTER 11PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
LAST WEEKEND OF SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND THE
TERMINALS TODAY. AN EASTERLY SURGE COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN WITH ROBUST WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND 15-2O KT
NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...WHERE EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK...PROVIDING GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WITH AN EVENING SURGE
OF WINDS LIKELY MOST DAYS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUN WHEN THE
GRADIENT BRIEFLY RELAXES AND ALLOWS AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 72 91 71 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 91 71 92 71 / 40 20 20 10
GIF 90 69 91 69 / 20 10 10 10
SRQ 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 10 10
BKV 91 65 91 65 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 90 74 89 75 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
MROCZKA/JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE SHOWERS POP UP NEAR BLOOMINGTON AND EFFINGHAM
EARLIER...BUT THESE FADED OUT AFTER ABOUT 15-20 MINUTES. SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINS OUT TO OUR WEST...FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCS OVER KANSAS SENT A WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THAT WAS EVIDENT ON RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR LATER
REGENERATION. UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ALSO A
POTENTIAL SOURCE...AS EVIDENT ON LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS. HOWEVER...
14Z RAP MODEL FAVORS MORE OF A POP-UP ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR AREA.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
MORE OF A THREAT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES FAVOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN.
DUE TO THE COMPLICATED SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO THE RAIN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD ASIDE
FROM THE USUAL HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED UP
THE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING
NORTH OF THE KILX TERMINALS. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA...BKN CU FIELD AT AROUND 6000FT WILL DEVELOP.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY POP UP IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS AS WELL...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MINIMAL...SO
MENTION IN TAFS IS NOT WARRANTED. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. 06Z NAM SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
REACHING KPIA BY AROUND 23Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BETWEEN
02Z AND 03Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING TIMING AND EXACT
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY MENTION VCTS AT THIS
TIME. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE MAY TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ENDED THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25KT AT TIMES.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DUE TO MCV REMNANTS/1012
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH TAIL OF CONVECTION EXTENDING SE
INTO NW PARTS OF ILX CWA NW...CURRENTLY WEST OF PEORIA AND LIFTING
NNE. AIR MASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG WITH SSW FLOW BRINGING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
GETS MOST UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NW IL WHERE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE IL...JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NW OF THE
IL RIVER WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NW IL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS
ARE WEST OF IL CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS.
THIS FRONT TO PRESS SE INTO NW IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL IL ON
SUNDAY (FATHERS DAY). BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AGAIN CLOSER TO FRONT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SE IL. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND SE IL SUNDAY WHILE LOWER CHANCES NW OF THE IL
RIVER. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER BUT HUMID AGAIN.
CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS IL. INCREASED SSW WINDS MONDAY AND
BRINGS BACK HOTTER AIR MASS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUE THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SE STATES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF IL DURING THIS TIME TO SAG BACK SOUTH
INTO IL LATER NEXT WEEK RETURNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-72 THU AND ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI.
TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CHANGES APPEARING MORE LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES IN NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD GETS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AS INITIAL
SHORT WAVES OVER IOWA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PLAINS
HAS BEEN FIRING SCATTERED STORM FROM DAKOTAS TO TEXAS. AS THIS
SHORT WAVE OVERTAKES GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK BETTER. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BEHIND THIS AS NEXT
SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS TO OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEAT OF TODAY WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE WITH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY BUT
RETURN IN EARNEST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. HEAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR THAN OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF 14Z.
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE CORE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT. HAVE SEEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SE INDIANA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AT THE NOSE OF A SUBTLE JET AT
925MB. RECENT RAP DATA INDICATING THAT THIS JET SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE JET SHIFTS EAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE
LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT FORECAST AREA...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS ANY
LOCALIZED OUTFLOWS THAT CAN FORM FROM STORMS. MOST RECENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT MUCH OF THE FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONE FEATURE THAT MAY SERVE TO ACCENTUATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO RESIDE. HAVE
THEREFORE BUMPED UP TO SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-70 AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A 20 POPS ELSEWHERE
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM.
ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GIVE SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AS WELL DEVELOPED
MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA APPROACHES THE REGION.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE WEST BASED ON THE QUICK RISE
ALREADY. OTHERWISE MADE NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONCERNS AGAIN REGARDING CHANGE FROM NO POPS TONIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS. EURO LESS PROGRESSIVE IN SOUTHEAST PUSH OF TROUGH
AND KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT LAKES. ALL OTHER MODELS
DIG TROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER AND BRING MORE RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL AGAIN USE A BLEND AND LEAN TOWARD LOWER CHANCE POPS AND LOWER
RAIN AMOUNTS OF EURO...IN PART TIED TO CURRENT DROUGHT AND
SURFACE MOISTURE BEING A LIMITING FACTOR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TAIL END OF ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS AREA CONTINUING THREAT FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS CURRENT FORECAST. IN TOTAL...RAIN AMOUNTS
TO A QUARTER INCH LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH SOME LOCALS
LIKELY WILL SEE NEAR AN INCH. AS FOR TEMPS...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SOME RAINY PERIODS SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS TO MID
80S. MODERATELY MOIST DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS CLOSE TO 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WEST.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
CANADIAN BEGINS TO DIVERGE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF BY THURSDAY. THE
CANADIAN HOLDS ON TO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ALLBLEND 40 POPS APPEAR REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DECENT SATURATION AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
A VORTICITY TAIL CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KIND AREA ROUGHLY
161900Z-162200Z. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM THIS MORNING/S UPPER
AIR SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITH FEATURE...ALTHOUGH
FEATURE AT PRESENT IS RATHER WEAK. WILL HOLD ONTO THE VCTS FORECAST
FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY BE HITTING THINGS TOO HARD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT ANY CENTRAL INDIANA TAF
SITES. WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
CUMULUS FORMATION SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED
STORMS BY 18Z. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MODELS HINT AT THESE BECOMING
ORGANIZED...PERHAPS INTO LINE OR LARGE CLUSTER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....HOMANN
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THE MCV FROM YESTERDAYS MCS IN THE PLAINS IS HELPING TO GENERATE
AN AREA OF SHRA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PER RADAR TRENDS
THESE SHRA SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHEAST CWFA BY 15Z. RAP TRENDS
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE SEEN FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
RAP TRENDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
AS THE MCV AND UPPER LOW EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA THE RAP
MODEL IS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN THE
FCST MAX TEMPERATURES SO CONVECTION THERE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNSET WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK FRONT.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA THE RAP MODEL INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND THE FCST MAX TEMPERATURES. THUS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWFA APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORED FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL USING THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS WELL. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA WILL AFFECT KDBQ/KMLI THROUGH 13Z/16.
BY 15Z/16 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
IOWA OVER THE PAST 3 HRS THAT COULD AFFECT KDBQ. TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DVLP AFT 20Z/16 THAT BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH 06Z/17.
KMLI/KBRL WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BEING AFFECTED BY MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED INTO THE 12Z
TAFS AT THIS TIME. ...08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS IS QUITE NOISY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE FEATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE RESPECTIVE MCS COMPLEXES. BUBBLE HIGHS
AND WAKE LOWS RAN FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS MCS/MCC WAS NEAR KFOD WITH ANOTHER NEAR
KCDJ. THE MAIN FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO A
LOW NEAR KPIR AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO KCYS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SOME 70S IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ALONG WITH RAP/GEM TRENDS SEEM TO DEPICT
REASONABLE WELL HOW THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD EVOLVE TODAY/TONIGHT.
RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NNE THROUGH 12Z AND SHOULD BE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWFA AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD THE CONVECTIVE TEMP. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS SKIES SHOULD ALSO PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING STRONGER
SOLAR INSOLATION TO OCCUR.
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE MCS/LIFT TOOLS WHEN APPLIED TO THE GEM AND
EXTRAPOLATING THE 12HR RAP FCST INDICATE ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS MCS SHOULD TURN SEVERE AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI VECTORS. AT THE SAME TIME
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THE ONE CONCERN TO THIS SCENARIO IS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. RAP TRENDS AND THE GEM SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE FCST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI SHOULD STEAL A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE INFLOW FOR STORMS OVER THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THINGS WOULD DEVELOP JUST RIGHT...A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A KSQI TO KOTM
LINE.
TONIGHT THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWFA AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING
UPON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVES...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY END ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY. ..08..
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM BEGIN WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND
WAA LEADING TO A TOASTY BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AND END WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXIT MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT IN THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY THAT EVENING AND
RESULTING WAA MAY SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW SINCE THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS AS A RESULT. GFS CONTINUES FORECASTING
VERY POORLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...THUS
BELIEVE ITS CONTRIBUTION TO GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS TOO COOL.
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC
WITH INCONSISTENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AMONGST EACH OTHER AND AS
OBSERVED VIA DPROG/DT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GEM
HAVE INDICATED SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
SLOWER AS A CLOSED LOW OR QUICKER AS AN OPEN WAVE. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO THE FRONTAL
STRENGTH WILL BE KEY TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES. FAVORED THE OPEN
TROUGH SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS CAPE AND PWS ARE
SUSPECT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ISSUE WITH POOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. THE GFS CURRENTLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
MIDDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER...SO AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT PASSAGE WOULD BE AT A FAVORABLE TIME OF THE DAY. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 930 AM: ACCORDING TO SAT IMG, WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS HAS
STARTED TO ERODE DUE TO MIXING. USING HRRR SKY FORECAST, WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN
DISSIPATE CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE 0545L: MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO AREA OF STRATUS MOVING WWRD
ACROSS THE FA. ALSO A VERY MINOR TWEAK MADE TO THE HRLY TEMPS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE W/ LATEST READINGS...
PREV DISC: ONLY ISSUE THRU THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF STRATUS
CURRENTLY SPREADING WWRD ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS ATTM... THE HRRR MDL
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND FCSTS THIS CLD COVER TO
SPREAD WWRD ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WRN AND NWRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM.
THEREAFTER...STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED TO MIX THESE CLDS OUT ALL
AREAS W/ SOME MINOR CONCERN AS TO HOW QUICK THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT SCTD SKIES MOST AREAS
BY 14-15Z. MOST RH PROGS THEN PUSH THIS MOISTURE JUST S AND SW OF
THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVE AT WHICH TIME IT IS ADVECTED NWRD ACROSS
OUR WRN COASTAL AREAS AND INTO OUR SWRN ZNS. WILL SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN CLDS ACROSS OUR SRN AND SWRN AREAS OVERNIGHT TNGT...
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CLOUDINESS TDY AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TDY AND TNGT SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT AS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM
LABRADOR...ACROSS OUR REGION AND DOWN THE E COAST CONTS TO PROVIDE
THE REGION W/ PLEASANT TEMPS/RH`S...MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT
WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVING
IN OFF THE OCEAN EARLY EACH MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DOWNEAST AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MID WEEK. EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE DRY AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT TRICKY, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT. THE
NEW 00Z GFS SAGS THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
IT OVER NORTHERN MAINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING IT THROUGH DOWNEAST BY THAT EVENING. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE TRIED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. ALSO, BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE FRONTAL PASSAGES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. IF THE NEW ECMWF IS CORRECT, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVERYONE WILL EASILY REACH
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS COVERS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT STARTING
TO SHOWS SIGNS OF DISSIPATING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. WILL KEEP
MVFR STRATUS DECK UNTIL AROUND NOONTIME THEN SCATTER CLOUDS AT
THAT TIME.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS AT KBHB AND PERHAPS KBGR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG THRU TNGT. ATTM...AREA OF
STRATUS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS NB AND THE BAY OF FUNDY AND JUST
ENTERING OUR FAR NERN WATERS. IN THE NEAR TERM EXPECT JUST THIS
STRATUS W/ NO ISSUES FROM FOG BUT FOG CHCS APPEAR TO INCREASE LATER
TNGT/ERLY SUN SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG FOR LATER TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...FOSTER/KHW
MARINE...FOSTER/KHW/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND VERY WARM TO HOT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STRENGTHENS ATOP THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED CRNT FCST TO CAPTURE CRNT
TEMP/DWPT TRENDS. ALSO...VIS SATL PIC SHOWS SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE SLV WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE CPV
ATTM. HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS TREND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACRS
OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASED HRLY TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED
ON CRNT OBS. HAVE KEPT NORTHERN DACKS/SLV DRY...BUT WL CONT TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACRS THE TRRN BTWN
20Z-00Z THIS AFTN. LATEST NAM12 AND RAP HINT AT POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK S/W RIDING ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE
AND SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CAP AND DEEP DRY LAYER WL
LIMIT OVERALL THREAT AND WL KEEP OUT OF FCST WITH CRNT UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS WL RANGE FROM THE U70S TO L80S MOST LOCATIONS.
QUIET WEATHER AGAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM. WARMEST READINGS (80-85) TO
OCCUR FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES
(75 TO 80) EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT WHERE 500M AGL BACK
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST A MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS ORIGINATING OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.
MODELS INSIST ON CONTINUING THREAT OF AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO ACROSS
NRN NY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND WHILE I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY...I`LL STILL OFFER A
GENERALLY DRY FORECAST GIVEN MODEL OVERESTIMATION OF SFC DEWPOINTS
AND RESULTANT BL INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...IDEA OF DAMPENING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OTTAWA/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS STILL LOOKS GOOD. COULD SEE
A FEW/ISOLD SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM OR TWO ACROSS NRN NY DURING
THESE PERIODS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...BUT
MOST AREAS AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY`S VALUES...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN TO
TREND MILDER UNDER CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS
+20C TO +24C AIR AT 925 MILLIBARS BECOMES COMMON. THUS LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CAPPING LAYER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
EXIST COUPLED WITH SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT. WITH LIMITED
FORCING AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON TUESDAY AND JUST A
BIT MORE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THIS WOULD BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THIS
THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS COMMENCED ON AREA
WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING
GUSTY BY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CLR/SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS SOUTHERLY MAINLY 5 TO 10 KTS
TODAY THOUGH LOCALLY NEAR 15 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING ON
THE BROAD LAKE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE AND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY. WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT TODAY...THEN 1 TO 2 FEET
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND LOCALLY TO 3 FEET WITH A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AT THE KVSF
(SPRINGFIELD VT) ASOS ARE KEEPING OBSERVATIONS FROM BEING
TRANSMITTED. FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/BOYD
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
850 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT/
MAJOR UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
NORTH OF I90 TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FALLEN APART THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA COULD
STILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF I90 BUT WILL REDUCE CHANCE
TO 40% AT BEST PER HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT/
PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TODAY AS WELL
DEFINED WAVE MOVES EAST OVER AREA. DECENT COVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT
ENDING FAR WEST BY LATE MORNING. STEADY ENDING FROM THE WNW DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH QUICK CLEARING WILL ALLOW WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR
NO THREAT OF SEVERE...SPC OUTLOOK SEEMS GOOD WITH SLIGHT RISK BARELY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRETTY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH DRYING LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL FOG THREAT...NOT TO
MENTION WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE SHORTEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR.
SUNDAY PROVIDES AN INTERESTING RETURN OF MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING BY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION ON MOISTURE RETURN
BEING AMPLE ENOUGH BUT OTHER PARAMETERS SUGGEST SPC IS RIGHT TO
BRING DAY 2 SEVERE THREAT INTO SD. JET SHEAR AND DECENT WARM
ADVECTION SUGGEST POSSIBLY LIMITED COVERAGE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
BUT A MODERATELY HIGH CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...AND THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. JET AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE
THREAT AS WELL WOULD EXIST OVER OUR NORTHEAST...THAT IS IN SOUTHWEST
MN...DESPITE THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE THREAT THERE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BECOME MINIMAL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN END FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WILL
KEEP A LITTLE MENTION IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NAM AND GFS
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY MAKES IT...WITH GFS
STUBBORN TO MOVE IT VERY FAR SOUTH...NOT AS IMPORTANT AS APPROACH OF
SHORT WAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND STORM THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER AREA. THEREAFTER...FOLLOWING WAVES SHOULD KEEP
STORM THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
MAKING A DRY FRIDAY LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO FROM SEASONABLY
WARM TO A BIT COOLER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AT START OF TAF PERIOD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-18Z AS COOL FRONT
IN CENTRAL SD AT 12Z PUSHES EAST. OTHERWISE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER
ONLY IN KSUX TAF FOR THE 15Z-19Z TIME FRAME AS SMALL COMPLEX OF TSRA
IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST. AFTER 19Z-21Z...GREATER THREAT
OF TSRA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF KSUX AS COOL FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EAST
INTO IOWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
17/00Z. COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20-25KTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD IN THE
EVENING...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF EARLY MORNING MARINE AND COASTAL REGION CONVECTION
DWINDLING OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. IT APPEARED THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE
COVERAGE TODAY AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS/BOUNDARY THAT WAS SITTING
EAST OF US THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD...NOW
POSITIONED ROUGHLY PARALLEL OVER THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE...NEAR
SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 500MB PER LCH 12Z RAOB WITH A 1.86" PW.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THERMO INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR 2K FT MU CAPES...MARGINAL K AND TT
NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S RESPECTIVELY. LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
1.8 INCH RANGE TODAY...WITH THIS WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORM PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL AND
ALL...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE AN INHIBITER TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN BUT...TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT...30 TO 40 PERCENT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE THE MOST LOGICAL STAB AT IT.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS HARRIS AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ONE SHOWER IS HEADING TOWARDS IAH BUT
DISSIPATING QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP JUST VCSH IN FOR THIS MORNING.
AREA OF EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS QUIETED DOWN SOMEWHAT
BUT EXPECT THAT THIS AREA WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AXIS MOVES
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP VCSH THIS MORNING FOR SITES
CLOSE TO GALVESTON BAY AND THEN INTRODUCE VCTS FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST TRENDS DOWNWARD IF NECESSARY. 38
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 79 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS HARRIS AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ONE SHOWER IS HEADING TOWARDS IAH BUT
DISSIPATING QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP JUST VCSH IN FOR THIS MORNING.
AREA OF EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS QUIETED DOWN SOMEWHAT
BUT EXPECT THAT THIS AREA WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AXIS MOVES
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP VCSH THIS MORNING FOR SITES
CLOSE TO GALVESTON BAY AND THEN INTRODUCE VCTS FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST TRENDS DOWNWARD IF NECESSARY. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 77 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1201 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE TERRAIN OF
WESTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
NOTED OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...LA SAL MOUNTAINS AND UP TO THE
FLAT TOPS. WATER VAPOR AND RAP PVU ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THIS IS
DUE TO MAIN SHEAR ZONE ENTERING THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND A LEFT OVER WAVE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS IS AIDING THESE AREAS
ATTM. HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THE SOUTHEAST UTAH
MOUNTAINS BUT MOST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SHEAR ZONE ALONG THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN SAN JUAN RANGE. STILL EXPECT
ANY RAINFALL TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH VERY DRY LOW
LAYERS IN PLACE. OUTFLOW WINDS HOWEVER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS IN PLACE AND AN INCREASE IN DOWNDRAFT
CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
THE CWA WILL DEAL WITH AN AREA OF DEFORMATION TODAY THAT WILL
ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO KICK OFF THIS AFTN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
CONSTRAINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS LOW WITH
MODELS SHOWING FROM .3 TO .4 G/KG ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES ON
THE OTHER HAND ARE ABOVE 9.5C/KM SO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK SO NOT MUCH
CHANGE THERE. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUND YET AGAIN WITH PLENTY
OF SUN EXPECTED.
LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SRN CALIF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SW WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY AS
THE JET STREAM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TAKES AIM AT
THE WRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE JET WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT A SHALLOW
TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. EVEN SO...THE STRONG WINDS ASSOD WITH THE JET WILL REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS UTAH AND COLORADO AND PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP MIXING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST SO
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS...AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DESCRIBED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG
WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR SUNDAY. WHILE AREAS NORTH WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS...06Z MODEL RUN HAS WINDS REACHING FURTHER
SOUTH. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...RED FLAG WARNING WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT
AS FAR AS THAT GOES.
SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT COLORADO AND UTAH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
SHALLOW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND JET
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH VERY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DESERT VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST UTAH THE MOST LIKELY TO HIT THIS
HEAT. BY MIDWEEK...MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF US WITH GRADIENTS
RELAXING A BIT AND TEMPS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH HEIGHTS REBUILDING
AND WINDS RELAXING FOR AT LEAST A DAY. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WE CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AND WINDS PICKING BACK UP
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL OR CLOUD
HEIGHTS AFFECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA
TERMINALS...BUT THE ASE AND EGE TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORTS. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT SUNSET THE CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO SET UP.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH TO MANY OF THE
TERMINALS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER PROLONGED RED FLAG EVENT.
EXPECT SFC WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEEP
MIXING OUT AHEAD OF A SHALLOW TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH DAYTIME
HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE POOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL BE UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON SUNDAY TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. LATEST GUIDANCE COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SO EXPANDED MONDAY/S FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
INCLUDE ALL CO FIRE ZONES.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDING
THE WARNINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...OR TRY TO SEPARATE THE EVENTS WITH MARGINAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.
IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER 3 DAY WIND EVENT WITH
THE FOCUS BEING FROM INTERSTATE 70 NORTH. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
HOWEVER...LATEST 06Z RUN HAS INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF SFC WINDS
THAT WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY. NOT COMPLETELY
CONFIDENT ON SOLN SO WILL LEAVE TO DAY SHIFT TO EXAMINE 12Z RUN
AND SEE IF SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN SUNDAY RED
FLAG WARNING.
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200>203.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203-207-290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ482>487.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ482>487.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JDC/JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION COMPRISED OF RIDGING FROM THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS. OUR LOCAL AREA IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 850MB. A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
ADVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS WORKED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY
OUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS DRIER IS IS VERY EVIDENT ON WV AND IN THE
12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE MARKED DRYING WAS MEASURED ABOVE
600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
RIDGING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PENINSULA AND NE GULF. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS PROVIDING A NE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
THE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ONE TRAVELS...AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
GENERALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
BRADENTON. THE LIGHTER GRADIENT DOWN TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA MAY STILL
ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE NE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE MID-LEVELS. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIKELY PREVENT THE
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS COMBINED WITH
AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT CAN REACH A SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY
ENTRAIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR RESULTING IN A RAPID DECAY. HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2
OF 90 UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 01-02Z WITH
THE DIMINISHING SEA-BREEZE...AND WILL END ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE COASTAL LAND ZONES AFTER 11PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
LAST WEEKEND OF SPRING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...
SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR WITH THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A ZONE
OF DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP ATLANTIC TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO BE QUITE HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SOUTH OF
BRADENTON...AND ALSO UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST AND ANY SHOWER
WILL BE BRIEF. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
MID JUNE IN STORE WITH NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS DROPPING
INTO THE 60S.
MONDAY...ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD ALLOWING HEIGHT
RISES/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FL PENINSULA. WITH A DRY
COLUMN OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE ADDED SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE...WILL LEAVE THE SILENT 10% POPS REGION-WIDE INHERITED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. U/L RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL EXTEND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH WEST OF THE
REGION...IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF IT
WOULD PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP...U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW POPS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR GFS AND
ECMWF FOR CONSISTENCY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT RUN
INCREASES MOISTURE AND LOWER TEMPS...WILL TREND TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND POPS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE UNTIL HIGHER LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE OCCURS WITH LOW DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ESPECIALLY TPA...PIE...SRQ AND LAL. AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT PGD...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT FMY AND RSW WITH AT LEAST SOME
MVFR IF NOT IFR CONDITIONS 18 TO 21Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS PROVIDING A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS HIGH
CONFIGURATION IS A GOOD SETUP FOR NOCTURNAL EASTERLY WIND SURGES AND
WILL EXPECT THIS SCENARIO THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. EXPECTING WINDS THIS
EVENING TO INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A RETURN TO CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 35 PERCENT MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 90 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 71 91 70 92 / 20 20 10 10
GIF 69 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 70 92 70 92 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 64 91 64 91 / 10 20 10 10
SPG 74 90 75 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
523 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
458 PM CDT
TWO MAIN FOCUS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR STORMS. STORMS ACROSS
INDIANA ARE HELPING TO OCCASIONALLY HIT SEVERE CRITERIA ON THE NOSE
OF RAP/RUC ANALYZED H7 SPEED MAX AND NOSE OF A THETA E TONGUE. AT
THE SURFACE...DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE TO BE REALIZED. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...ALLOWING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
TO FALL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND FOCUS IS TIED TO THE MCV/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND SHIFTING EAST. MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS TO BE
LINED UP DIRECTLY TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT WITHIN AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS BASICALLY UNTAPPED. CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL WITH THESE STORMS AND THE FORMATION
OF A COLD POOL MAY BE UNDERWAY. THE EARLIER RAP/RUC HAD BEEN
UNDER DOING LOWER LEVEL WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO PROFILER AND 88D VAD
PROFILES...BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION. ALL GUIDANCE INCREASES THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY HELP TO CONVECTION TO FORM INTO A
BOWING SEGMENT AIDED BY A MODERATE REAR INFLOW JET. THERE IS NO
REASON FOR THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BEFORE IT MOVES EAST AND INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE OF A WAIT AND SEE TO TELL IF
ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THE COLD POOL INCREASES...OF IF THE STORMS
REMAIN MORE OF THE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER THAT IS PRESENTLY BEING
NOTED. INCREDIBLY HIGH PWATS /RANGING FROM 1.7 TO ROUGHLY 1.9
INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT. SHEA
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
515 PM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.
A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.
ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING
* MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...MID/LATE EVENING
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER/IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
BIGGEST CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS WAS TO CLOSE THE TIME WINDOW FOR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA THREAT MID/LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
SOME CONCERN DOES EXIST THAT EAST-WEST BAND OF TSRA COULD DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE BETWEEN 01-03Z...ADDED VCSH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
IZZI
UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
518 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
528 AM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.
A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.
ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL
EAST AND WEST OF C90 AIRSPACE THROUGH 00Z.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
506 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
458 PM CDT
TWO MAIN FOCUS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR STORMS. STORMS ACROSS
INDIANA ARE HELPING TO OCCASIONALLY HIT SEVERE CRITERIA ON THE NOSE
OF RAP/RUC ANALYZED H7 SPEED MAX AND NOSE OF A THETA E TONGUE. AT
THE SURFACE...DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE TO BE REALIZED. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...ALLOWING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
TO FALL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND FOCUS IS TIED TO THE MCV/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND SHIFTING EAST. MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS TO BE
LINED UP DIRECTLY TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT WITHIN AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS BASICALLY UNTAPPED. CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL WITH THESE STORMS AND THE FORMATION
OF A COLD POOL MAY BE UNDERWAY. THE EARLIER RAP/RUC HAD BEEN
UNDER DOING LOWER LEVEL WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO PROFILER AND 88D VAD
PROFILES...BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION. ALL GUIDANCE INCREASES THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY HELP TO CONVECTION TO FORM INTO A
BOWING SEGMENT AIDED BY A MODERATE REAR INFLOW JET. THERE IS NO
REASON FOR THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BEFORE IT MOVES EAST AND INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE OF A WAIT AND SEE TO TELL IF
ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THE COLD POOL INCREASES...OF IF THE STORMS
REMAIN MORE OF THE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER THAT IS PRESENTLY BEING
NOTED. INCREDIBLY HIGH PWATS /RANGING FROM 1.7 TO ROUGHLY 1.9
INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT. SHEA
&&
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
528 AM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 35
PERCENT BY MIDDAY ACROSS ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 40 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND
20 MPH.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY...THE
RECENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND WILL PROVIDE SOME LOCATIONS WITH A WETTING RAIN.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...ON
SUNDAY THEY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HOT AIR RETURNS
MONDAY ON SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON THE SCATTERED RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP UP PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL
EAST AND WEST OF C90 AIRSPACE THROUGH 00Z.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
339 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT
A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHEA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
528 AM CDT
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 35
PERCENT BY MIDDAY ACROSS ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 40 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND
20 MPH.
WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY...THE
RECENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND WILL PROVIDE SOME LOCATIONS WITH A WETTING RAIN.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...ON
SUNDAY THEY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HOT AIR RETURNS
MONDAY ON SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON THE SCATTERED RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP UP PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL
EAST AND WEST OF C90 AIRSPACE THROUGH 00Z.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS WI AT
MID-AFTERNOON HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST OF C90
AIRSPACE. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND
BUBBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE WILL KEEP ANY SHRA FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND FAR WESTERN IL...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN IL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TSRA OUTFLOW WHICH HAD SHIFTED WINDS NW AT ORD/DPA IS LIFTING BACK
NORTH OF BOTH AIRPORTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA...WITH A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IMMINENT.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE HAS FORCED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN IL SINCE LATE MORNING. NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE C90 TRACON AREA
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PER SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL IL AND THE IL/IN
BORDER REGION TOO.
TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM APPEARS IMMINENT AS WELL...WITH LATEST
RADAR INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHWEST
MO INT SOUTHEAST IA...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS INTO WESTERN
IL AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.
REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE IA/MO BORDER INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT IMPULSE MOVES EAST. SOME MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WISCONSIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ADDITIONAL
CELLS OVER NORTHERN IL RATHER ISOLATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR/SPC WRF INDICATE A RATHER WELL-
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
BASED TIMING OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA THREAT ON THIS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER THINKING. LOW CONFIDENCE
PART IS HOW MUCH ISOLATED CONVECTION FILLS IN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE
SCALE WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
DURING THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO TONIGHT...DRAGGING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTN TSRA TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1216 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE SHOWERS POP UP NEAR BLOOMINGTON AND EFFINGHAM
EARLIER...BUT THESE FADED OUT AFTER ABOUT 15-20 MINUTES. SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINS OUT TO OUR WEST...FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCS OVER KANSAS SENT A WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THAT WAS EVIDENT ON RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR LATER
REGENERATION. UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ALSO A
POTENTIAL SOURCE...AS EVIDENT ON LATEST NAM/HRRR RUNS. HOWEVER...
14Z RAP MODEL FAVORS MORE OF A POP-UP ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR AREA.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
MORE OF A THREAT DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES FAVOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN.
DUE TO THE COMPLICATED SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO THE RAIN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD ASIDE
FROM THE USUAL HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED UP
THE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF SET WILL BE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HAVE SEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR KCMI OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO GO MORE THAN
VCTS THERE AT THIS TIME. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
LIKELY TIME FRAME LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEVELOPMENT...BEGINNING
WEST OF KPIA AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD IN THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED
A TEMPO PERIOD OF 5SM TSRA FOR KPIA/KBMI/KSPI TO TRY AND TIME THE
MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF STORMS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT KDEC/KCMI AS
DEVELOPMENT AND POSITIONS OF STORMS IN THOSE AREAS IS LESS CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE TAF SITES BY 12Z.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DUE TO MCV REMNANTS/1012
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH TAIL OF CONVECTION EXTENDING SE
INTO NW PARTS OF ILX CWA NW...CURRENTLY WEST OF PEORIA AND LIFTING
NNE. AIR MASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG WITH SSW FLOW BRINGING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
GETS MOST UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NW IL WHERE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE IL...JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER NW OF THE
IL RIVER WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NW IL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS
ARE WEST OF IL CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS.
THIS FRONT TO PRESS SE INTO NW IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL IL ON
SUNDAY (FATHERS DAY). BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AGAIN CLOSER TO FRONT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SE IL. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND SE IL SUNDAY WHILE LOWER CHANCES NW OF THE IL
RIVER. A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER BUT HUMID AGAIN.
CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS IL. INCREASED SSW WINDS MONDAY AND
BRINGS BACK HOTTER AIR MASS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUE THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SE STATES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF IL DURING THIS TIME TO SAG BACK SOUTH
INTO IL LATER NEXT WEEK RETURNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-72 THU AND ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI.
TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CHANGES APPEARING MORE LIKELY FOR RAIN CHANCES IN NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD GETS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AS INITIAL
SHORT WAVES OVER IOWA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PLAINS
HAS BEEN FIRING SCATTERED STORM FROM DAKOTAS TO TEXAS. AS THIS
SHORT WAVE OVERTAKES GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK BETTER. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BEHIND THIS AS NEXT
SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS TO OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEAT OF TODAY WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE WITH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY BUT
RETURN IN EARNEST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. HEAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR THAN OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF 14Z.
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE CORE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT. HAVE SEEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SE INDIANA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AT THE NOSE OF A SUBTLE JET AT
925MB. RECENT RAP DATA INDICATING THAT THIS JET SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE JET SHIFTS EAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE
LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT FORECAST AREA...REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS ANY
LOCALIZED OUTFLOWS THAT CAN FORM FROM STORMS. MOST RECENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT MUCH OF THE FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONE FEATURE THAT MAY SERVE TO ACCENTUATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO RESIDE. HAVE
THEREFORE BUMPED UP TO SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-70 AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A 20 POPS ELSEWHERE
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM.
ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GIVE SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AS WELL DEVELOPED
MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA APPROACHES THE REGION.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE WEST BASED ON THE QUICK RISE
ALREADY. OTHERWISE MADE NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CONCERNS AGAIN REGARDING CHANGE FROM NO POPS TONIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS. EURO LESS PROGRESSIVE IN SOUTHEAST PUSH OF TROUGH
AND KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT LAKES. ALL OTHER MODELS
DIG TROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER AND BRING MORE RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL AGAIN USE A BLEND AND LEAN TOWARD LOWER CHANCE POPS AND LOWER
RAIN AMOUNTS OF EURO...IN PART TIED TO CURRENT DROUGHT AND
SURFACE MOISTURE BEING A LIMITING FACTOR.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TAIL END OF ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS AREA CONTINUING THREAT FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS CURRENT FORECAST. IN TOTAL...RAIN AMOUNTS
TO A QUARTER INCH LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH SOME LOCALS
LIKELY WILL SEE NEAR AN INCH. AS FOR TEMPS...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SOME RAINY PERIODS SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS TO MID
80S. MODERATELY MOIST DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS CLOSE TO 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WEST.
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
CANADIAN BEGINS TO DIVERGE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF BY THURSDAY. THE
CANADIAN HOLDS ON TO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ALLBLEND 40 POPS APPEAR REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DECENT SATURATION AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF
SITES ROUGHLY 161900Z-162300Z AS THE TAIL END OF AN MCV...CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...MOVES THROUGH. FEATURE APPEARS WEAK
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES 030-040.
BETTER THREAT OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AFTER ABOUT
170300Z-170400Z...WHEN DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
IOWA/MISSOURI BEGINS AFFECTING THE AREA. PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH MODELS INDICATING AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 30 KTS.
OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
200-230 HEADINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KLAF/KIND/KHUF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....HOMANN
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...OTHER THAN MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS...IS STARTING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF MID-MISSOURI VALLEY MCV...EVIDENCED BY
700-500MB RIDGING OVER KS...IS LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS WELL. GIVEN STRONGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE ANYTHING OUT
YET...BUT IF CURRENT TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING
EVENING POPS.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLY
RETURNING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE KC METRO...WSW INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS. OLD
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY
WASHED OUT OVER CENTRAL OK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE
MCV (FROM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING) IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH A MUCH SMALLER MCV
(FROM TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT) MEANDERING OVER
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING NICELY OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS KS. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
MCV TO THE NORTHEAST...THINKING CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE WILL
ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ZIPPERING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST KS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO PER
LATEST HRRR AND OUN WRF MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY COULD EVEN BUBBLE FURTHER WSW ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK NORTHERN OK MCV. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
ROLLING ESE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING LLJ...ALTHOUGH LOWER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS THIS AREA. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY & HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST
INITIALLY)...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ACTIVITY COULD TEND TO
LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS WELL INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT IN STALLING THE BOUNDARY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO LASTING PAST
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MID/LATE EVENING.
ANTICIPATING CENTRAL KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MCV PRODUCED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...ENDED UP LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. HOWEVER...THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AS DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WASHES OUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY LATE MORNING. GOOD MIXING AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER
90S...WITH NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
STRENGTHENING HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S APPEAR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVING BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS. SUSPECT THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH...SO OTHER
THAN SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...WARMING TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY...AS SOUTHERN/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE LEFT SOME UPPER ENERGY THAT IS SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST KS. THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SO TOOK VCTS OUT EVERYWHERE BUT KICT AND
KCNU WHICH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING AT KCNU.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 70 94 74 96 / 40 20 10 0
HUTCHINSON 69 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
NEWTON 68 94 74 96 / 30 20 10 0
ELDORADO 68 91 73 93 / 40 20 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 93 73 95 / 50 20 10 0
RUSSELL 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 68 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
MCPHERSON 68 95 74 97 / 20 20 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
CHANUTE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
IOLA 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER MCV OVER NORTHEAST KS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A MESO LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCV WAS OVER NORTHWEST MO WITH A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MCV SHOULD DOMINATE WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. WITH
SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE MCV EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL KS. ALONG THE TURNPIKE AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS...THERE IS
STILL DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
TROUGH AXIS FOR STORMS TO POTENTIALLY FORM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ONLY 25 TO 30 KTS.
THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE MULTICELLULAR WITH A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREAT. IF A DISCRETE STORM WHERE ABLE TO HANG
OUT FOR ENOUGH TIME WITHOUT INTERFERENCE FROM OTHER STORMS...THERE
COULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL. AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN CO...BUT LATEST MODEL
PROGS SHOW THIS CONVECTION LIKELY STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AIDING IN SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO WESTERN KS. THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE THE WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY. INSTABILITY SHOULD
STILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
BE SLOW TO ADVECT OVER EASTERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. SO IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVELS...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SFC FEATURE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS LOW SO HAVE
ONLY GONE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO DEEP MIXING AND WARMING TEMPS AT MID
LEVELS...HIGHS SUNDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER. 850 TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 20C RANGE SUGGEST LOW TO MID 90S ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR HIGHS.
WOLTERS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK UPPER FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
STATES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WAVE
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...EVEN WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
ADDITION. SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP
WINDS KEEP A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT MONDAY...AND AID IN HIGHER TEMPS
AND WINDS...WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE IN DEEP MIXING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPS /HEAT INDICES/ AS WELL WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT LEVELS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP AIR TEMPS BELOW THIS MARK AT THIS
POINT BUT EXPECT ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND 25C. NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE REORGANIZES TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK
WITH A STRONGER WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE TO REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COULD
HANG AROUND FOR A FEW PERIODS DEPENDING OF COURSE ON MCV/OUTFLOW
EFFECTS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA ON
INTO FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY AND
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION THAT COULD FORM ON ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
65
&&
.AVIATION...
THINK WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MCV SO CLOSE TO TOP AND FOE...THAT
STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS. RATHER THAN
HAVE A PREVAILING GROUP FOR THUNDER...JUST HAVE A VCTS MENTION
THINKING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF TOP AND FOE RATHER QUICKLY
SIMILAR TO THE 14Z HRRR PROG. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF STORMS FROM
MHK WITH IT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCV. UNLESS STORMS MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINALS...WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLY
RETURNING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE KC METRO...WSW INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS. OLD
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY
WASHED OUT OVER CENTRAL OK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE
MCV (FROM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING) IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH A MUCH SMALLER MCV
(FROM TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT) MEANDERING OVER
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING NICELY OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS KS. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
MCV TO THE NORTHEAST...THINKING CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE WILL
ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ZIPPERING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST KS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO PER
LATEST HRRR AND OUN WRF MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY COULD EVEN BUBBLE FURTHER WSW ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK NORTHERN OK MCV. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
ROLLING ESE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING LLJ...ALTHOUGH LOWER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS THIS AREA. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY & HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST
INITIALLY)...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ACTIVITY COULD TEND TO
LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS WELL INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS CORRECT IN STALLING THE BOUNDARY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO LASTING PAST
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MID/LATE EVENING.
ANTICIPATING CENTRAL KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MCV PRODUCED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...ENDED UP LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. HOWEVER...THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AS DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WASHES OUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY LATE MORNING. GOOD MIXING AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER
90S...WITH NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
STRENGTHENING HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S APPEAR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVING BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS. SUSPECT THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH...SO OTHER
THAN SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...WARMING TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY...AS SOUTHERN/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE LEFT SOME UPPER ENERGY THAT IS SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST KS. THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SO TOOK VCTS OUT EVERYWHERE BUT KICT AND
KCNU WHICH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING AT KCNU.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 70 94 74 96 / 40 20 10 0
HUTCHINSON 69 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
NEWTON 68 94 74 96 / 30 20 10 0
ELDORADO 68 91 73 93 / 40 20 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 93 73 95 / 50 20 10 0
RUSSELL 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 66 98 74 100 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 68 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 0
MCPHERSON 68 95 74 97 / 20 20 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
CHANUTE 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
IOLA 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 70 90 72 92 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1212 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS THROWN A WRENCH IN
THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SHIFTING THE
AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST. RADAR AND SATELLITE SUGGEST
THE MCV WAS OVER NEMAHA CO WITH A MESO LOW JUST WEST OF TOP. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL
EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE MESO LOW...SO THIS IS WHERE NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MCV. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS WHERE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MCV SHOULD HINDER
PRECIP. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN FAR EASTERN KS
STILL. BUT GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE MULTI CELLULAR WITH WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS.
WOLTERS
&&
.AVIATION...
THINK WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MCV SO CLOSE TO TOP AND FOE...THAT
STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS. RATHER THAN
HAVE A PREVAILING GROUP FOR THUNDER...JUST HAVE A VCTS MENTION
THINKING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF TOP AND FOE RATHER QUICKLY
SIMILAR TO THE 14Z HRRR PROG. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF STORMS FROM
MHK WITH IT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCV. UNLESS STORMS MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINALS...WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
SHORT TERM - THROUGH SUNDAY... A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IS
SETTING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THAT THE PERIOD IS STARTING
OFF WITH A POORLY DEVELOPED MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EDGING
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EMBEDDED
MCV/MESO LOW PIVOTING ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS CONTINUES
TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT AND LLJ...INHIBITING SOME INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONVECTION.
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS WELL.
CURRENTLY...BEST APPROXIMATION OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
DAY IS THAT ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION AS IT TREKS FARTHER EAST.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE A
MORE DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER WITH ANY COLD POOL/SHEAR
INTERACTIONS NOT BEING NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO A LONG LIVED MCS.
THUS...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EVENTUAL FAVORITISM CLOSER TO THE
NEBRASKA BORDER AS ENERGY LIFTS A BIT MORE NORTH WITH TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW AS NO MODEL HAS HAD A PARTICULARLY
STRONG GRASP OF EVOLUTION SO FAR...HRRR MAY BE CLOSE TO REALITY
BUT ALSO HAS REASONS TO DISTRUST IT...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER KANSAS COULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
EFFECTS ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING...EXPECT REINVIGORATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND ENHANCES
LIFT. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH ANY REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
MCV REMNANTS TO INDUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO
RECHARGE INSTABILITY AFTER ANY EARLY CONVECTION...WITH DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL...
AND PERHAPS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WOULD APPEAR TO BE WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
CONGLOMERATION OF DOWNDRAFTS INTO WELL DEVELOPED FORWARD
PROPAGATING COLD POOLS. HOWEVER...EVEN AT THIS POINT...A LOT OF
THE DETAILS REGARDING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ARE UNKNOWN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MORNING CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT...DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN A CONVERGENCE OF THE JET ACROSS KANSAS.
SHOULD SEE ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP OR BECOME
ENHANCED AS THE JET INCREASES WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
PROPAGATION. THE LLJ WILL VEER AFTER O8Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR TS DEVELOPMENT WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
TREND.
SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF THE WEAK AND
WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY
CONVECTION. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA STAND
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...BUT IF THE FRONT HANGS
OUT A BIT FARTHER NORTH...THEN THOSE CHANCES WOULD SHIFT NORTH AS
WELL. AS OF NOW...HAVE LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MID TERM - SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARM PERIOD AS AN EXPANSIVE EML/CAP
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 90S WHILE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS RATHER HIGH WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS LIKELY APPROACHING
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ON MONDAY. THE STRONG CAP WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM - WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER SPORADICALLY WET PERIOD AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEPOSITS ANOTHER
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION...AND HAVE TRENDED AT
LEAST A BIT COOLER THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS OF NOW...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO COME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MCS ACTIVITY TO DIVE SOUTH
OFF OF THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO THAT TIME FRAME
SO HAVE INCLUDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
308 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
MAIN ISSUE IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. A MUCH DIFFERENT AIR MASS IS
IN PLACE TODAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH HEATING THUS FAR. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CU HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MO INTO ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THE CLEAR
AREA CURRENTLY WEST OF COLUMBIA MAY BE EXPERIENCING SOME SUBIDENCE
BEHIND AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE WHICH EMANATED FROM THE KS
MCS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SAME FEATURE MAY ALSO BE PROVIDING
SOME IMPETUS FOR SHALLOW VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN ST LOUIS AND
COLUMBIA WHERE SATELLITE INDICATES THE CU IS DEEPER AND RADAR HAS
SHOWN SOME PIN HEAD RETURNS. THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT RAMPS UP THRU THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE MCV CURRENTLY IN NE KS MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AND INTERACTS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK BUT VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH A PRIMARY WIND
THREAT. UPSCALE GROWTH FROM MERGING OUTFLOWS COULD RESULT IN ONE
OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS/CLUSTERS. I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE IDEA IN MIND THAT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MISSOURI WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION AND A WW THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT
HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
SUNDAY`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
MOVES TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF/SREF HAVE SOME EXTENT OF LINGERING
PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
REMAINING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING ALONG ALOFT DURING THE MORNING
AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4KM NCEP WRF LOOK
PRETTY DRY AFTER THE MCS LOSES STEAM LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE 4KM WRF
FIRES PRECIP DOWN OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THINK THE BEST I CAN DO IS CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY...UNSURE OF TIMING OR COVERAGE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ON THE
NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ON AN AREA OF DECENT 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE EVENING...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TO CHANCE IN THOSE AREAS.
CONTINUING HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP US STUCK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE DAY AND LOW TO MID 70S AT NIGHT. SHOULD FEEL LIKE
SUMMER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BREAKING DOWN AND A
FROPA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SHOULD BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE AIR MASS IS VERY
UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME AND EXTENSIVE CU HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. I DONT HAVE A
REAL GOOD FEEL ON THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OUT OF KS. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD IMPACTING WEST CENTRAL IL/KUIN...WHILE ALSO SINKING
SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND IMACTING CENTRAL MO/KCOU THIS EVENING.
I THINK THE PROBABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH OF TERMINAL IMPACTS AT KUIN
AND KCOU BUT COULD BE OFF ON TIMING PLUS OR MINUS A FEW HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVIAL. THE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FURTHER SOUTH IS LESS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GOOD ORGANIZATION AND A LARGE CLUSTER OR LINE
FORM THEN THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE ST LOUIS AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
THE PROB30 GROUP AT KSTL/KSUS/KCPS REFLECTS THIS LINE OF THOUGHT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT
THE MAIN ISSUE. THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENSIVE CU HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL ON THIS
SPOTTY ACTIVITY. IF THIS DEVELOPS BETTER IT MAY REQUIRE AN AMENDMENT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ADD VCTS OR TSRA. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...
THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z. SINCE THESE STORMS HAVE YET TO FORM IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE TIMING AND LONGEVITY. IF THEY DO MOVE SOUTH
AS ANTICIPATED...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVIAL.
GLASS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 72 88 73 95 / 60 40 30 5
QUINCY 68 87 70 93 / 70 30 30 5
COLUMBIA 69 89 70 93 / 70 40 20 5
JEFFERSON CITY 70 90 71 93 / 60 40 10 5
SALEM 71 86 71 92 / 50 50 20 5
FARMINGTON 70 88 68 91 / 40 40 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM JUST OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX AND WINDS TO COME DOWN. THEREFORE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM AROUND THE HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. HRRR SHOWS A NICE
DEPICTION OF THIS MOISTURE IN TERMS OF CU DEVELOPMENT. VALUES OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH INLAND WHERE CLEAR SKIES EXIST UP TO .75
INCHES IN PATCHES WHERE CU DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEA
BREEZE PUSHED JUST FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO KEEP TIP OF CAPE FEAR
CLEAR OF ANY CLOUDS. SOUNDING DATA AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LOCKED IN BELOW INVERSION JUST UNDER 7K FT
DRYING OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS PCP WATER DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OVER AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE CU DISSIPATE BY
EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MORNING.
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE MORE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH TEMPS DOWN BELOW 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR IN THIS PERIOD
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. WITH LIGHT
WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WE WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MIDDLE JUNE BOTH MON/TUE AT DAYBREAK...MAINLY LOW AND
MIDDLE 60S.
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT IS EVIDENT IN RH TIME-HEIGHT
PLOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 500 MB. CONCURRENTLY WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME FORM OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WELL INLAND TO GIVE US
A CRACK AT A BRIEF SHOWER OVER OUR NW ZONES 3PM-6PM MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
RIDGING CREATES SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST ON TUESDAY...AND ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...A DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL INHIBIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. 500MB RIDGE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WED-FRI ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL TRY TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS...BUT RECOGNIZE THAT STRONG RIDGES
TEND TO DELAY COLD FRONTS SO CURRENT PROGS MAY BE TOO FAST TO BRING
THROUGH FRONT SATURDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND WILL BUMP POP TO SCHC...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST 7 DAYS OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO BEFORE RISING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 18-20C BY FRIDAY...BUT
EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INHIBIT US FROM REALIZING THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THIS WARMTH ALOFT UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW THROUGH THE COLUMN...AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WED-SAT...LOW 90S MOST
PLACES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. MINS AT NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S WED NIGHT...AND AROUND 70 THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF CYCLE. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES 3.5K TO 5K FT THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WILL BACK DOWN TO AROUND
5 KT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... A CUTOFF LOW CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS WILL
MEANDER AROUND BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO LOCAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX FURTHER AND EXPECT SEAS TO RESPOND BY
SUBSIDING THROUGH SUN MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOWING SEAS UNDER 6 FT
IN LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
DISCONTINUED WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS
BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN FROM AROUND 5 FT IN
OUTER WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MORNING ACROSS MOST WATERS. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN A MIX OF NE SWELL WITH NEARLY A 9 SEC PERIOD AND
LOCALLY WIND DRIVEN SHORTER PERIOD SWELL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MARK A
TRANSITION IN WIND DIRECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESENTLY OVER
LAND...SLIPS OFFSHORE AND BRINGS WINDS AROUND WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION HASTENS THE TRANSITION...S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EASING TO S-SW 5 KT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SOUTH
WINDS MONDAY AS THE HIGH HOLDS JUST OFFSHORE OF OUR COAST.
WAVE DIRECTION BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HOLD FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WAVE HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME NEAR SHORE CHOPPINESS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCES WIND SPEEDS SEVERAL KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM CREATES LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING SE SWELL.
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
HAVE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH ONLY MINOR TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS TO SE OR SW. SINCE THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THE WAVE
SPECTRUM WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SWELL DOMINATED. A 2FT/8SEC E/SE
SWELL WILL START THE PERIOD...BUILDING TO A 3FT/8SEC SE SWELL AS
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL BE ONLY 1-2
FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUILDING TO 2-3 FT LATE THURSDAY DUE TO
THE INCREASED SWELL AMPLITUDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. UNUSUALLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE NEXT WEEK...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS
TO COME DOWN. THEREFORE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LET UP
SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM AROUND THE HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. HRRR SHOWS A NICE
DEPICTION OF THIS MOISTURE IN TERMS OF CU DEVELOPMENT. VALUES OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH INLAND WHERE CLEAR SKIES EXIST UP TO .75
INCHES IN PATCHES WHERE CU DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEA
BREEZE PUSHED JUST FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO KEEP TIP OF CAPE FEAR
CLEAR OF ANY CLOUDS. SOUNDING DATA AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LOCKED IN BELOW INVERSION JUST UNDER 7K FT
DRYING OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS PCP WATER DOWN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OVER AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE CU DISSIPATE BY
EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MORNING.
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE MORE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH TEMPS DOWN BELOW 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BLOCKING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SUN STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST MON AS 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STARTS TO EXPAND EAST. SUN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT WITH
FLAT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW UNDER DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS IN COOL/MOIST ATLANTIC AIR. WHILE THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE PRESENT THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BEGINS MON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME THE 5H RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND EAST AND
THE CUTOFF WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NORTHWEST WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...A PRODUCT OF THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE EXPANDING 5H RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO MON/MON NIGHT...BUT
TRENDING CLOSER TO CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD. ON TUE THE REMNANTS OF A SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE AREA BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK NATURE OF THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
ITS IMPACT CONFINED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY END UP BEING ENOUGH
TO SUPPRESS DEEPER CONVECTION. THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO TUE
AFTERNOON BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT WARRANT A MENTIONABLE POP. THE
SHORTWAVE LEFTOVERS MORE OR LESS DISSOLVE AS 5H RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TUE NIGHT. 5H RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM WED ON KEEPING THINGS DRY. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MID JUNE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...UPPER 80S TO LOWERS 90S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. EXPECT CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES 3.5K TO 5K FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT FLO/LBT...WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WILL BACK DOWN TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT AROUND SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE EVENING.
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY BUT INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY... A CUTOFF LOW CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS WILL
MEANDER AROUND BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO LOCAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX FURTHER AND EXPECT SEAS TO RESPOND BY
SUBSIDING THROUGH SUN MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOWING SEAS UNDER 6 FT
IN LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
DISCONTINUED WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS
BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN FROM AROUND 5 FT IN
OUTER WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MORNING ACROSS MOST WATERS. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN A MIX OF NE SWELL WITH NEARLY A 9 SEC PERIOD AND
LOCALLY WIND DRIVEN SHORTER PERIOD SWELL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA. RELAXED GRADIENT SUN NIGHT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW AS WEAK LAND BREEZE SETS UP. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OVERHEAD LATE SUN NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MON WITH LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SUN WHEN WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KT AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT SUN SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY MON
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BASICALLY OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL KEEP SURFACE GRADIENT ILL DEFINED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...10 KT OR LESS...WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BOTH DAYS. SEAS 2
FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
627 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFINE POPS A BIT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
FOR FAR NW OH. RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHRA/TS OVER INDIANA
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT MEANWHILE SOME NEW ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LINE. INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS TOWARD
00Z...BUT WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING MENTIONS ANY
SHRA/TS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS DO IN FACT INCREASE TO HIGHER
CHANCES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THERE. LOOKING AT WV AND SATELLITE LOOKS
LIKE THE BIGGER FACTOR FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION WITH THE
SFC COLD FRONT WHILE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
EASTERN COUNTIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD FREE AND STABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. TO THE WEST HOWEVER MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED A BIT AND LI`S ARE AROUND -3 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S. AIRMASS IS MORE MOIST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SWRN OHIO. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...(AS WELL AS POINTS WEST) WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS
APPROACHING FDY AND TOL. AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO NWRN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR NWRN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT WAVE AND FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE. BY
MORNING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE REACHED INTO NWRN
OHIO SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FAR NORTHWEST...AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK FINE WITH LOWER 60S EAST
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE DAY WITH
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS ALL COUNTIES. TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR THE MORNING WEST
AND AFTERNOON EAST BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION AND PROGGED MOISTURE.
BY 00Z MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
A CHANCE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT EAST HALF BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN LACK OF FORCING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AFTERNOON CAPES BOTH DAYS APPROACH 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM12
THINKING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
BUT WILL KEEP DRY TUESDAY. TEMPS NEAR 90 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...TSRA MOVING INTO NW OH AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOCAL. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER SHOULD REACH CLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE DOUBTS IN MY MIND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION
WILL MOVE BEFORE IT FALLS APART SUNDAY MORNING...SO FOR TAFS JUST PUT
VCSH FROM CLE EAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FROM CLE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY THEN
VEER A LITTLE MORE TOWARD SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EASTERN COUNTIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD FREE AND STABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. TO THE WEST HOWEVER MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED A BIT AND LI`S ARE AROUND -3 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S. AIRMASS IS MORE MOIST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SWRN OHIO. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...(AS WELL AS POINTS WEST) WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS
APPROACHING FDY AND TOL. AS THIS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO NWRN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR NWRN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT WAVE AND FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE. BY
MORNING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE REACHED INTO NWRN
OHIO SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FAR NORTHWEST...AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK FINE WITH LOWER 60S EAST
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE DAY WITH
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS ALL COUNTIES. TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR THE MORNING WEST
AND AFTERNOON EAST BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION AND PROGGED MOISTURE.
BY 00Z MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
A CHANCE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT EAST HALF BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN LACK OF FORCING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AFTERNOON CAPES BOTH DAYS APPROACH 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM12
THINKING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
BUT WILL KEEP DRY TUESDAY. TEMPS NEAR 90 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...TSRA MOVING INTO NW OH AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOCAL. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER SHOULD REACH CLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE DOUBTS IN MY MIND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION
WILL MOVE BEFORE IT FALLS APART SUNDAY MORNING...SO FOR TAFS JUST PUT
VCSH FROM CLE EAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FROM CLE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY THEN
VEER A LITTLE MORE TOWARD SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT/
MAJOR UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
NORTH OF I90 TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FALLEN APART THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA COULD
STILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF I90 BUT WILL REDUCE CHANCE
TO 40% AT BEST PER HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT/
PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TODAY AS WELL
DEFINED WAVE MOVES EAST OVER AREA. DECENT COVERAGE THIS MORNING BUT
ENDING FAR WEST BY LATE MORNING. STEADY ENDING FROM THE WNW DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH QUICK CLEARING WILL ALLOW WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR
NO THREAT OF SEVERE...SPC OUTLOOK SEEMS GOOD WITH SLIGHT RISK BARELY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRETTY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH DRYING LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL FOG THREAT...NOT TO
MENTION WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE SHORTEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR.
SUNDAY PROVIDES AN INTERESTING RETURN OF MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING BY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION ON MOISTURE RETURN
BEING AMPLE ENOUGH BUT OTHER PARAMETERS SUGGEST SPC IS RIGHT TO
BRING DAY 2 SEVERE THREAT INTO SD. JET SHEAR AND DECENT WARM
ADVECTION SUGGEST POSSIBLY LIMITED COVERAGE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
BUT A MODERATELY HIGH CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...AND THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. JET AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE
THREAT AS WELL WOULD EXIST OVER OUR NORTHEAST...THAT IS IN SOUTHWEST
MN...DESPITE THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE THREAT THERE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BECOME MINIMAL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN END FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WILL
KEEP A LITTLE MENTION IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NAM AND GFS
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY MAKES IT...WITH GFS
STUBBORN TO MOVE IT VERY FAR SOUTH...NOT AS IMPORTANT AS APPROACH OF
SHORT WAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND STORM THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER AREA. THEREAFTER...FOLLOWING WAVES SHOULD KEEP
STORM THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
MAKING A DRY FRIDAY LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO FROM SEASONABLY
WARM TO A BIT COOLER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND PLENTY
OF CAPE...FEEL TSRA WILL PERSIST. COULD GET SOME OCCASIONAL
STRONGER WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 22Z. AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL PROBABLY GET SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF EARLY MORNING MARINE AND COASTAL REGION CONVECTION
DWINDLING OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. IT APPEARED THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE
COVERAGE TODAY AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS/BOUNDARY THAT WAS SITTING
EAST OF US THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD...NOW
POSITIONED ROUGHLY PARALLEL OVER THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE...NEAR
SATURATED COLUMN UP TO 500MB PER LCH 12Z RAOB WITH A 1.86" PW.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THERMO INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR 2K FT MU CAPES...MARGINAL K AND TT
NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S RESPECTIVELY. LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
1.8 INCH RANGE TODAY...WITH THIS WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORM PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL AND
ALL...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE AN INHIBITER TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN BUT...TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT...30 TO 40 PERCENT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE THE MOST LOGICAL STAB AT IT.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS HARRIS AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ONE SHOWER IS HEADING TOWARDS IAH BUT
DISSIPATING QUICKLY SO WILL KEEP JUST VCSH IN FOR THIS MORNING.
AREA OF EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS QUIETED DOWN SOMEWHAT
BUT EXPECT THAT THIS AREA WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AXIS MOVES
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP VCSH THIS MORNING FOR SITES
CLOSE TO GALVESTON BAY AND THEN INTRODUCE VCTS FOR ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST TRENDS DOWNWARD IF NECESSARY. 38
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THIN CONVERGENCE BANDS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY JUST
OFFSHORE AND A FEW HAVE SOME SMALL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. JUST
ALONG AND NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BOUNDARY IS ANOTHER MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIRES
WRF AS WELL AS HRRR ARE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND WILL LEAN WITH THAT GUIDANCE IN ASSIGNING POPS FOR THE
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY MID-MORNING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY
WANE IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2.0 INCH RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SO DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SOME GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
OTHERWISE WARMER NAM MOS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF PERFORMING
BETTER WITH MAX TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE THAT AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE. A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES AREAWIDE. NAM12
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CLOSING ISOBARS ON THIS FEATURE AND WILL
TREND MORE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NEVERTHELESS DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
THE RESULT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR SOUTH OF US59 AND EAST
OF I45. SOME SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TRENDING DOWNWARD OF MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVERAGE COMES UP SOMEWHAT.
BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. 04
AVIATION...
FOR THE 09Z TAF UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF GALVESTON BAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT IAH AND HOU AS SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG GALVESTON BAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY BY 12Z AND AFFECTING THE
METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
REEVALUATE FOR THE MAIN 12Z TAF IF NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE
TO REMOVE MVFR CIGS AS MOST SITES ARE REPORTING ONLY FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS TO SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS AS LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. 38
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH EAST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 10-15KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLE PENDING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF A SYSTEM DOES FORM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE MARINE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 92 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 79 89 77 87 / 40 20 30 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
317 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PROMINENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION EARLIER TODAY WHICH
IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTH-EAST WISCONSIN. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXISTS OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST OVER MINNESOTA. STORMS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
FAR. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...BUT TEMPS ARE ONLY THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...AND ARE COOLER OVER WISCONSIN SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE EAST...PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT IS PASSING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. TRACKING
THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION TAKES IT NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY...SO WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF THIS LINE. CAN
STILL EXPECT MORE SPOTTY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY IN THE
EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHEN A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK. STILL THOUGH...THE
MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT 300-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT WONDER IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE A NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SPLIT...WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH. IF SOME SORT OF BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DOES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...FIGURE IT WILL BE WEAKENING
AS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING SINCE
INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING. THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
BY 09Z AND WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNAL CU DEVELOP OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE COOLER
TEMPS WILL RESIDE AT 850MB AND THERE IS ENHANCED RH. LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODELS DIFFERED IN HOW QUICKLY THEY TOOK THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE EAST REMAINS DRY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH PLENTY
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MODELS INDICATED A WEST TO EAST AXIS OF MAX QPF MOVING NORTH ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
TIMING DIFFERENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE
FOX VALLEY MAY DEVELOP. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z SUNDAY BRINGING A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AGAIN...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 08Z.
WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/MG