Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/14/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...
903 PM CDT
UPDATE FOR REST OF TONIGHT...LAST HOPES FOR EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSHOWER FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA IS QUICKLY DRYING UP...PUN INTENDED...AS THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY E TO SW LOWER MI AND N CENTRAL IN. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT IS WELL DELINEATED FROM EXTREME SE WI SOUTHWESTWARD TO
W CENTRAL IL BY BOTH A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W AND NW...AS WELL AS
A DEW POINTS FALLING OFF TO THE UPPER AND MID 50S.
CURRENT REMAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POP NUMBERS FOR THE SE PORTION OF
THE FA WILL BE DROPPING OUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN MINIMAL AT BEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT
LEAST...AND NEAR ZERO CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
INCREASINGLY SERIOUS SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS WILL LIKELY BE
CAUSING EVEN GREATER STRESS ON TREES AND CROPS.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. WILL BE MONITORING FOR A FEW
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE THAT MAY
WILL LIKELY BE ALL THAT IS ON THE SCOPE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER COOK COUNTY
AND SOUTH ALONG THE IL/IN STATE LINE...WHICH IS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF A WEAK CONVERGENT AXIS AND APPARENT SHORT WAVE SEEN ON
SATELLITE. MID 80S TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS CORRIDOR HAS BUILT SURFACE BASED CAPE TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY OVER 2000 J/KG. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LAST LONGER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ACTIVITY NEAR NOON BEING CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
CENTER AND HAVING MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. UPPER LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE AROUND A MEAGER 20 KT PER PROFILER ANALYSIS. THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE STORM CORES IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT PULSY WITH
INSTABILITY IN THE DRIVERS SEAT...AND WITH LIMITED ATTENDANT SHEAR
IT LEAVES ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM UPPER TROUGH CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE MN/WESTERN
QUEBEC BORDER WITH PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS...THE UPPER JET AXIS...AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER ASCENT MOVING EAST FROM THERE. THIS FORCING HAS
AIDED SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN WI. THE COOL FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THERE WHERE IT WILL
MOVE INTO NW IL BY 4 PM AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVE. THE WIND SHIFT IS GRADUAL FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND IT IS ACTUALLY AHEAD OF THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SO OVERALL CONVERGENCE IS LIMITED
AND FEEL THAT WILL BE THE CASE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT WERE TO
TRIGGER ALONG IT...WHICH IS NOW APPEARING DOUBTFUL IN OUR AREA.
THE HRRR AND OTHER EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS AGREE IN THIS
LIMITED COVERAGE.
THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY MIXED AS IT DOES
SUCH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE RISE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN BE THE
STORY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE REALLY ONLY WEATHER OF INTEREST FROM DAY TO DAY WILL
BE HOW LOW DEW POINTS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON MIXING...AND
TO WHAT DEGREE OF COOLING WILL THERE BE FROM THE LAKE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT LAKE BREEZE INTO IL...BUT LIKELY INTO IN.
THIS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS
TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN SD. THIS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER SHOULD BE REALIZED DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PROJECTED MIXING TO 850 MB. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN LOW...UNDER 25 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST.
INFLUENCE FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CHICAGO
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILD MORE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC HAS SHOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SW FLOW THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AND MAY
DAMPEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR POPS DURING PART OF THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...HAVE
COLLABORATED GOING DRIER THAN POPS AND DEW POINTS FROM GUIDANCE
BLENDS IN THE EXTENDED PER PERSISTENCE AND AN OVERALL STAGNANT
PATTERN.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NO REAL CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
* NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
INCREASING UP TO AROUND 18KT...BEFORE WINDS START TO SHIFT MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT COMPLETELY OVER TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANY REMAINING
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO EXIT WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME BRIEF GUSTS REPORTED. ANY GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING. CAN EXPECT
NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND 18KT WITH WINDS SHIFTING ALL THE WAY TO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE
SHIFTED THE WINDS A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING...AS
COULD SEE THIS QUICKER FLOP OVER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LAKE
INFLUENCE.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS TO TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA WEST OF
TERMINALS SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
231 PM CDT
A LARGE LOW HAS MOVED INTO HUDSON BAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED...RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
ITS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LOWS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST AT 15 TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY
FOR A ON TUESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO EASTERLY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A LARGE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US THROUGH THE
REMAINING PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT WINDS VARYING BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTH.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1115 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 849 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST
WEST OF PEORIA AND JACKSONVILLE WITH DEW POINTS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
LOWER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER FROM THE CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS LED TO VERY LITTLE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND WAS MOVING
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATING A FAIRLY WORKED
OVER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE CONVECTION OF EARLIER
TODAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED. THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS AND
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURLY TEMPS...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT TRENDS. THE
UPATED ZONE FORECAST WILL BE OUT BY 915 PM.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACRS THE STATE THIS EVENING. IT
WAS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD TRACK EAST OF
OUR TAF SITES BY 07Z. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH INTO THE NORTHWEST
AFTR FROPA WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
DURING THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW CU AT TIMES WITH BASES AROUND
4500-5000 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN QUESTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY
CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. 2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...HOWEVER AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS STILL QUITE STABLE DUE TO
MORNING CONVECTION THAT DECAYED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS FROM SPC IS INDICATING SOME DESTABILIZATION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES BACK UP TO AROUND
1500 TO 2000J/KG. 19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
NARROW RIBBON OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...HOWEVER
NO SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FIRED YET. 12Z MODELS ARE LARGELY
USELESS...AS NONE OF THEM ADEQUATELY PREDICTED THE STORMS THAT
ROLLED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EVEN SOME OF
THE HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
CONVECTION...SO THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE SUSPECT. THE 17Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
REALITY...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR E/SE KILX
CWA EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 00Z...BUT THIS RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. SINCE THE FRONT IS
STILL OFF TO THE WEST...THINK THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...SO
WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLEST MORNING WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE EXTENDED...AS
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE FLOW...WITH THE 12Z 11 JUN GFS
FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE AND RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS RIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE WEAKER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES
AND THE FACT THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE IN A MODERATE
DROUGHT...WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
A BROAD WEAK, ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WA IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS OCCURRING AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTED HIGHER CONTENT MOISTURE AIR FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES. FARTHER WEST, A DRYLINE WAS
EVIDENT IN THE MESONET POINT DATA ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AS WELL
AS IN A FINE LINE DEVELOPING ON KPUX RADAR FROM LAMAR, CO
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
VERY DIFFERENTLY AND THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE 12UTC NAM MODEL WOULD INDICATE AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE MUCH HIGHER CAPE/INSTABILITY
AXIS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. AT HIS TIME, THIS NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE MORE
LIKELY THAN OTHERS BASED ON THE WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT WE ARE
DEALING WITH. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE RECENT
ARW-WRF/NMM RUNS AND HRRR THAT HAVE ELUDED TO CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A COLD POOL AND
SPREADING RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN SEVERAL TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. IF THAT DOES OCCUR, THE MOST PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME WOULD
SEEM TO BE MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKER CONVECTION COULD SPREAD FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE JUST AS GOOD OR BETTER ALONG A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD UNDERGO FRONTOGENESIS FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE BE WEAK FORCING,
BUT PERHAPS MORE MODERATE CAPE VALUES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR, WESTWARD TO SCOTT CITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE NAM MODEL
IS INDICATING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHILST
MOST OTHER NUMERICAL OUTPUT IS INDICATING LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL SEE ONE UPPER SHORT WAVE
EXITING THE WESTERN PLAINS OF KANSAS, BRINGING ABOUT A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD, EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY, THE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT, AND ONLY IN TREGO,
ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT QPF FROM 0.60
TO 0.80-INCH IN OUR NORTHWEST FROM HAYS TO SCOTT CITY, BUT HAVE A
HARD TIME BUYING THAT MUCH PERCEPTIBLE WATER WILL FALL OUT, BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS. TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT QPF TO AROUND 0.25 TO
0.30-INCH. AS THAT SHORT WAVE EXITS, ANOTHER SMALL SCALE WAVE IS
EJECTED FROM THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS SECOND WAVE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE FIRST, AND WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THAT AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON
CITY TO LA CROSSE. THE UPPER BAJA LOW CUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT PER
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, AND AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
TEXAS. FOR NOW, PLAN TO KEEP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FREE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT OUR EXTREME EAST WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVERHEAD, AND
A DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL BE EVOLVING. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE,
SUCH AS SOUTHEAST OF LINE FORM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE CR-EXTENDED BLEND PROCEDURE PLACED 30 POPS IN
MY EXTREME THREE EASTERN COUNTIES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER
WEDNESDAY, OR DAY 7. KNOCKED THOSE POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT, AS THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT WAVE COULD BE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
AROUND THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY HOT DURING THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
(SE, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTIES), WITH PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING THE COOLEST MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SCOTT CITY TO 70 DEGREES IN MEDICINE LODGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 90S NORTH OF I-70 AND RANGE TO
THE MID 90S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. BY SUNDAY, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, THEN WARM TO PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE ELKHART AREA
BEING NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT (BEST GUESS), AND KNOCK HIGHS DOWN A NOTCH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
INCREASINGLY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 07Z.
ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY, IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT HELPING KEEP
WINDS SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20KT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 96 70 93 / 20 20 20 20
GCK 68 97 70 93 / 20 20 30 20
EHA 67 96 69 91 / 20 20 20 20
LBL 68 96 71 93 / 20 10 20 20
HYS 68 97 68 90 / 20 30 50 20
P28 68 95 76 94 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
703 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE: USING THE RUC MODEL AND RADAR TREND, HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT FASTER TONIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON RH PROGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW.
THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THIS TOO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH
WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS EVENING, BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT IT
WILL BE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN
MAINE. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, SO THERE SHOULDN`T BE ANY THUNDER. HOWEVER
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS
PWATS WILL BE RUNNING HIGH, 1 TO 1.5+ INCHES, BUT GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH HAVE OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAINE, WHERE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. AMOUNTS DROP OFF AS
YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS
EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS; HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS APPEAR TO REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPARTURE TIME OF
SHWRS E OF THE FA WED NGT WITH MAX THU 00-06Z QPF MSLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RNFL...WITH ALL LOCATIONS
DRYING BY THU MORN. WITH WINDS BECOMING N AT 5 TO 10 MPH BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATE WED NGT AND ERLY THU MORN...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TM FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE WAKE
OF RNFL...SO FOR NOW WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
THIS PD...BUT BRIEF FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF KEEPING CLDNSS AND ASSOCIATED
SHWRS WITH THE UPPER LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA ACROSS SRN PTNS OF THE
FA THU INTO THU NGT...SO WE LOWERED POPS BLO SLGT CHC AND ALLOWED
FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG.
WITH HI PRES BOTH AT THE SFC ALD ALF SLOWLY SUBSIDING SWRD FROM
NRN/CNTRL CAN...FAIR SKIES AND LGT WINDS WILL CONT INTO FRI. LOW
AND HI TEMPS WED NGT THRU THU NGT SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRING EXCEPTIONALLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION. AFTER A CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CRESTING OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY.
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH WILL THEN CHANNEL VERY WARM AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE FAR
NORTH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY...WARM AND HUMID. THE WARMEST AIR MAY THEN REACH THE STATE
DURING MID WEEK WHEN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY COULD
SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY REACH 90 OR HIGHER IN SOME AREAS
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILING AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND REMAIN MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
BELOW 1000 FT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: ALL SITES WILL INITIALLY BEGIN MVFR WITH LOW CLGS AND
OCNL VSBYS BETWEEN 3 TO 6 SM IN SHWRS WED EVE AND THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THU MORN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN CONT
VFR THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW. WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THEREFORE, NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA THRU SUN...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE N BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU INTO THU NGT...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. USED A BLEND OF NAM12...GFS40
AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS...
LOWERED FOR BAYS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE COAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FOSTER/HASTINGS
MARINE...FOSTER/HASTINGS/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
950 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL AIR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRETCH OF NICE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LATE EVENING UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER AND TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN RIDGES.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
MICHIGAN. ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO,
SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HIGH SHIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. THE DRY PROFILE
ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ASIDE FROM THE THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
CLEAR DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
DESPITE THIN CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. DRIER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT, PRESTON, AND TUCKER
COUNTIES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. WITH 850 TEMPS
WARMING TO 11-13C TOMORROW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, HIGHS WILL WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT WILL STAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 50S AND 40S.
SURFACE HIGH AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH JUST
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RUN-TO-RUN MODEL VARIATION HAS BEEN
VIRTUALLY NIL...AND OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE IMPULSE RUNNING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST ARE FAIRLY LOW.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TRANSITING THE AREA...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND INCREASING MIXING
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AS MODEL CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUN FROM ROUGHLY
16C UP TOWARD 20C...THE POSSIBILITY OF ECLIPSING 90F IN SOME
LOCATIONS INCREASES DAY-BY-DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN FOR OUR AREA STILL SEEMS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OUT INTO THE FUTURE TO BE BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE ECMWF BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK SUCH THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. HOWEVER...ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...A DRY SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WEATHER
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PRODUCE OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS AND RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WINDS SHOULD TURN LIGHT EASTERLY THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
736 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL AIR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRETCH OF NICE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EARLY EVENING ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN
ISSUED WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AS CIRRUS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
MICHIGAN. IN THIS PATTERN, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HIGH SHIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. THE DRY PROFILE
ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
CLEAR DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA, A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 11-13C TOMORROW AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT WILL STAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 50S AND 40S.
SURFACE HIGH AND STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH JUST
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RUN-TO-RUN MODEL VARIATION HAS BEEN
VIRTUALLY NIL...AND OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE IMPULSE RUNNING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST ARE FAIRLY LOW.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TRANSITING THE AREA...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND INCREASING MIXING
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AS MODEL CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUN FROM ROUGHLY
16C UP TOWARD 20C...THE POSSIBILITY OF ECLIPSING 90F IN SOME
LOCATIONS INCREASES DAY-BY-DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN FOR OUR AREA STILL SEEMS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OUT INTO THE FUTURE TO BE BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE ECMWF BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK SUCH THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. HOWEVER...ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...A DRY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WEATHER
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PRODUCE OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS AND RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WINDS SHOULD TURN LIGHT EASTERLY THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE UPR
TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS MOVING E IN ADVANCE OF
UPR RDG OVER WRN CANADA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF BROUGHT
LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME -SHRA TO MAINLY THE NRN TIER INTO EARLY
AFTN... BUT TREND THIS AFTN HAS BEEN FOR MORE SUNSHINE AS DNVA/
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/MORE ACYC FLOW AND DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z INL RAOB IS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IN ADVANCE
OF SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE SDAKOTA. SKIES ARE MOCLR FM THE HI
CENTER STRETCHING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG...WHERE THE 12Z RAOB AT THE PAS
IN MANITOBA SHOWS A PWAT OF 0.28 INCH. SFC DEWPTS THIS AFTN HAVE
MIXED OUT INTO THE LO-MID 30S IN THIS UPSTREAM AIRMASS. MORE CLDS
ARE PRESENT A BIT FARTHER W IN THE NRN PLAINS IN THE RETURN SW FLOW
ARND THE SFC HI AND IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING E ACRS
WYOMING/MONTANA. 12Z BIS RAOB SHOWS MORE MSTR/PWAT OF 0.70 INCH NEAR
THE WAD CLD BAND.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLRG TRENDS THIS
AFTN AND THEN TEMPS/POTENTIAL FOR FROST TNGT.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE E AND TO OVER NRN LWR MI BY 12Z
WED. EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO DSPT LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AND WARMER/DRIER AIR AT
H925. STRONGER WSW FLOW ARND SFC HI IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AFT 06Z...WITH PWAT RISING AS THIS FLOW TAPS MORE MSTR
SHOWN ON THE 12Z BIS RAOB. MOST SUSTAINED CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LOOK TO BE OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...WHERE THE GRADIENT FLOW
WL REMAIN WEAKER/PWAT LOWER AND UNDER 0.5 INCH THRU 12Z WED. OPTED
TO EXTEND GOING FROST ADVY NEAR THE WI BORDER TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA FROM BARAGA TO THE E...WITH MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS PER OBSVD MIXING OF DEWPTS UPSTREAM.
WED...AS SFC HI PRES DRIFTS SLOWLY E ACRS LK HURON...STRONGER SW
FLOW WL DVLP OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH APRCH OF DISTURBANCE NOW
MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND SOME MSTR RETURN...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME CLDS TO INVADE MAINLY THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
GENERATES SOME PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY...PREFER TO
FOLLOW THE DRY 12Z NAM/CNDN/LOCAL WRF-ARW DUE TO VERY DRY NATURE OF
LLVL AIRMASS. MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO 70 TO 75 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AS A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DIGS DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. THE GEM/ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE
ON A WEAKER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SMALL TROUGH. THE
GFS ALSO AMPLIFIES THE EXITING RIDGE MUCH MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND MORE SIMILAR TO THE GEM/ECMWF FOR
NOW GIVEN THEIR AGREEMENT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS
KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND
850MB...WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS LOW 80S. DESPITE
INCOMING CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TO BE OUT WEST WITH THE HIGHEST 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND
13C. WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY OUT EAST...EXPECT MIXING TO BRING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHEST GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KNOTS.
FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING
HUDSON BAY BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH
IMPACTING THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
CWA...BRINGING 0.25 INCH TO THE EASTERN AREAS. THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS
TAKE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING NORTHWARD /PER 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE/ AND THEREFORE KEEP MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA DRY. THERE
ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN PUTTING SPECIFICS INTO THE FORECAST. KEPT THE BEST
CHANCES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. MU/ML
CAPE VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM AROUND
200-1000 J/KG...SO KEPT THUNDER CHANCES IN. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING TIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THE EXTENDED /THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...IT SEEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND A RIDGE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE AROUND THE
IT BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER RIDGE UP FROM THE
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA OR NOT IN THE UPPER
PENINSULA AT ALL. THE GFS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS THE TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED LOW...AND THEN MOVES THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND BRINGS A MUCH
MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY. WITH SUCH A VARIANCE IN SOLUTIONS...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
BUMPING UP ANY POPS. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS MODELS SEEM
TO BRING IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 16-18C
RANGE...SO WILL KEEP FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER EARLY AT SAW...THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
THIS FCST PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTN WL ALSO DIMINISH BY TNGT
WITH THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT A
STRONGER SW FLOW TO DVLP ON WED ONCE THE HI CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E
OVER NRN LOWER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE E TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT AS THE HI REMAINS DOMINANT. THEN A
STRONGER S WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E
PART OF THE LAKE ON THU/FRI UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HI DEPARTING TO THE E AND A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THEN LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH A
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 7 AM EDT /6 AM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONE VORT MAX IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI ATTM AND ANOTHER WEAKER VORT
MAX IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN MN. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE FCST AREA...AND STRONG CAA IS UNDERWAY. 850MB TEMPS WHICH WERE
RUNNING 10-16C AT 00Z SHOULD BE DOWN TO 0 TO 2C AT 18Z TODAY.
WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF ARRIVING BY MID DAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THRU THE MORNING HRS. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE AREA
MIGHT BRING A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE N AS WELL. THERE HAVE
BEEN OCNL REPORTS OF LIGHT PCPN IN NRN MN DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING/CLEARING TREND. MIGHT BE A BIT
TOO QUICK GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THERMAL TROF DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE DAY. UNDER CLOUDS/CAA...TEMPS SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...TEMPS OVER THE E MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES DURING
THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DURING THE AFTN...
TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S E OF MUNISING GIVEN CHILLY
AIR MASS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE AFTN AS CLOUDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK
UP FROM W TO E. WITH EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN...UPPER 50S/LWR 60S
SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE RULE. MAY REACH THE MID 60S OVER THE SCNTRL.
COLD AIR ARRIVING TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY/POSSIBLY
FROSTY NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE VCNTY...
WINDS WILL DROP TO CALM/NEAR CALM. DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER
35 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT)
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HAVE THUS OPTED FOR A FROST
ADVY FOR GOGEBIC/IRON/DICKINSON LATE TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO EXPAND
ADVY EASTWARD IN LATER FCSTS SINCE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER LINGERS
LONGEST OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
WED MORNING WILL START WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z THU...SLY
FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE FROM A CWA AVG OF 4C 12Z WED TO 9C 00Z THU. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX TO AROUND 800MB WED AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
INTERIOR W...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20MPH OR LESS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OVER LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z FRI...WITH
A SFC LOW BENEATH IT AND A SFC TROUGH STRETCHING INTO WRN MN. WHILE
THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED WELL INTO QUEBEC...A SFC RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
/AND THUS THE SLY FLOW/ OVER THE CWA. BY 00Z THU...850MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15C...MAKING FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
OVER MOST OF UPPER MI. WITH THE INCREASED SLY FLOW...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER THAN ON WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A VERY DRY
LAYER AROUND 875MB...SO RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
INLAND ON THU. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE PRECIP JUST W OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH THE DRIER IDEA GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS AND DRY TREND AS OF LATE. GENERALLY...SFC WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE MOVES TO HUDSON BAY BY 18Z FRI...BUT THE SFC
TROUGH SHOULD STAY NW OF THE CWA THROUGH FRI. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA FRI AS
STRONG SLY FLOW CONTINUES. WE SHOULD SEE BETTER MOISTURE...SO SOME
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT WE WILL BE LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM
SO WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM THU...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...WARMEST INTERIOR W.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES MON...BUT HOW DEEP
AND HOW FAR E THE TROUGH IS REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND THESE ASPECTS
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE FOR THE FORECAST FOR MON.
USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER EARLY AT SAW...THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES/DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
THIS FCST PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTN WL ALSO DIMINISH BY TNGT
WITH THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT A
STRONGER SW FLOW TO DVLP ON WED ONCE THE HI CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E
OVER NRN LOWER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN W TO
NW WINDS OF 20-30KT TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON
SOME OF THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
THRU THE MORNING HRS. HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL THEN ARRIVE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS
DIMINISHING TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO QUEBEC WED NIGHT...AND THEN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...THE BASIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE ERN CONUS WITH A LOW PRES TROF FROM THE WRN HIGH PLAINS TO
HUDSON BAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY THU/FRI MAY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS THU/THU NIGHT OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT WED THRU
SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ009>011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONE VORT MAX IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI ATTM AND ANOTHER WEAKER VORT
MAX IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN MN. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE FCST AREA...AND STRONG CAA IS UNDERWAY. 850MB TEMPS WHICH WERE
RUNNING 10-16C AT 00Z SHOULD BE DOWN TO 0 TO 2C AT 18Z TODAY.
WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF ARRIVING BY MID DAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THRU THE MORNING HRS. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE AREA
MIGHT BRING A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE N AS WELL. THERE HAVE
BEEN OCNL REPORTS OF LIGHT PCPN IN NRN MN DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING/CLEARING TREND. MIGHT BE A BIT
TOO QUICK GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THERMAL TROF DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE DAY. UNDER CLOUDS/CAA...TEMPS SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...TEMPS OVER THE E MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES DURING
THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DURING THE AFTN...
TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S E OF MUNISING GIVEN CHILLY
AIR MASS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE AFTN AS CLOUDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK
UP FROM W TO E. WITH EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN...UPPER 50S/LWR 60S
SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE RULE. MAY REACH THE MID 60S OVER THE SCNTRL.
COLD AIR ARRIVING TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY/POSSIBLY
FROSTY NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE VCNTY...
WINDS WILL DROP TO CALM/NEAR CALM. DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER
35 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT)
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HAVE THUS OPTED FOR A FROST
ADVY FOR GOGEBIC/IRON/DICKINSON LATE TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO EXPAND
ADVY EASTWARD IN LATER FCSTS SINCE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER LINGERS
LONGEST OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
WED MORNING WILL START WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z THU...SLY
FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE FROM A CWA AVG OF 4C 12Z WED TO 9C 00Z THU. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX TO AROUND 800MB WED AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
INTERIOR W...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20MPH OR LESS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OVER LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z FRI...WITH
A SFC LOW BENEATH IT AND A SFC TROUGH STRETCHING INTO WRN MN. WHILE
THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED WELL INTO QUEBEC...A SFC RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
/AND THUS THE SLY FLOW/ OVER THE CWA. BY 00Z THU...850MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15C...MAKING FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
OVER MOST OF UPPER MI. WITH THE INCREASED SLY FLOW...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER THAN ON WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A VERY DRY
LAYER AROUND 875MB...SO RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
INLAND ON THU. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE PRECIP JUST W OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH THE DRIER IDEA GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS AND DRY TREND AS OF LATE. GENERALLY...SFC WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE MOVES TO HUDSON BAY BY 18Z FRI...BUT THE SFC
TROUGH SHOULD STAY NW OF THE CWA THROUGH FRI. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA FRI AS
STRONG SLY FLOW CONTINUES. WE SHOULD SEE BETTER MOISTURE...SO SOME
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT WE WILL BE LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM
SO WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM THU...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...WARMEST INTERIOR W.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES MON...BUT HOW DEEP
AND HOW FAR E THE TROUGH IS REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND THESE ASPECTS
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE FOR THE FORECAST FOR MON.
USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
THERMAL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTAINING
BKN/OVC STRATOCU THRU THE MORNING HRS WITH CIGS PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. PER UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS WILL PROBABLY BOUNCE TO
VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE AREA MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME
-RA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT 2-3HRS...PARTICULARLY AT KCMX.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL WORK TO SCATTER OUT CLOUDS THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD AND LAST AT KSAW. INFLUX OF SHARPLY
COLDER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP NW WINDS GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX.
WITH HIGH PRES NEARING AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN W TO
NW WINDS OF 20-30KT TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON
SOME OF THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
THRU THE MORNING HRS. HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL THEN ARRIVE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS
DIMINISHING TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO QUEBEC WED NIGHT...AND THEN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...THE BASIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE ERN CONUS WITH A LOW PRES TROF FROM THE WRN HIGH PLAINS TO
HUDSON BAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY THU/FRI MAY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS THU/THU NIGHT OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT WED THRU
SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ009>011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
603 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONE VORT MAX IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI ATTM AND ANOTHER WEAKER VORT
MAX IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN MN. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE FCST AREA...AND STRONG CAA IS UNDERWAY. 850MB TEMPS WHICH WERE
RUNNING 10-16C AT 00Z SHOULD BE DOWN TO 0 TO 2C AT 18Z TODAY.
WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF ARRIVING BY MID DAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THRU THE MORNING HRS. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE AREA
MIGHT BRING A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE N AS WELL. THERE HAVE
BEEN OCNL REPORTS OF LIGHT PCPN IN NRN MN DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING/CLEARING TREND. MIGHT BE A BIT
TOO QUICK GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THERMAL TROF DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE DAY. UNDER CLOUDS/CAA...TEMPS SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...TEMPS OVER THE E MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES DURING
THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DURING THE AFTN...
TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S E OF MUNISING GIVEN CHILLY
AIR MASS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE AFTN AS CLOUDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK
UP FROM W TO E. WITH EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN...UPPER 50S/LWR 60S
SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE RULE. MAY REACH THE MID 60S OVER THE SCNTRL.
COLD AIR ARRIVING TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY/POSSIBLY
FROSTY NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE VCNTY...
WINDS WILL DROP TO CALM/NEAR CALM. DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER
35 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT)
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HAVE THUS OPTED FOR A FROST
ADVY FOR GOGEBIC/IRON/DICKINSON LATE TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO EXPAND
ADVY EASTWARD IN LATER FCSTS SINCE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER LINGERS
LONGEST OVER THE E.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
WED MORNING WILL START WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z THU...SLY
FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE FROM A CWA AVG OF 4C 12Z WED TO 9C 00Z THU. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX TO AROUND 800MB WED AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
INTERIOR W...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20MPH OR LESS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OVER LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z FRI...WITH
A SFC LOW BENEATH IT AND A SFC TROUGH STRETCHING INTO WRN MN. WHILE
THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED WELL INTO QUEBEC...A SFC RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
/AND THUS THE SLY FLOW/ OVER THE CWA. BY 00Z THU...850MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15C...MAKING FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
OVER MOST OF UPPER MI. WITH THE INCREASED SLY FLOW...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER THAN ON WED...BUT MODELS SHOW A VERY DRY
LAYER AROUND 875MB...SO RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
INLAND ON THU. SOME MODELS DO TRY TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE PRECIP JUST W OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH THE DRIER IDEA GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS AND DRY TREND AS OF LATE. GENERALLY...SFC WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE MOVES TO HUDSON BAY BY 18Z FRI...BUT THE SFC
TROUGH SHOULD STAY NW OF THE CWA THROUGH FRI. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA FRI AS
STRONG SLY FLOW CONTINUES. WE SHOULD SEE BETTER MOISTURE...SO SOME
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT WE WILL BE LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM
SO WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM THU...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...WARMEST INTERIOR W.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES MON...BUT HOW DEEP
AND HOW FAR E THE TROUGH IS REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND THESE ASPECTS
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE FOR THE FORECAST FOR MON.
USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AT KIWD/KSAW AND
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX AND THEN IN THE MORNING AT KSAW AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN W TO
NW WINDS OF 20-30KT TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON
SOME OF THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
THRU THE MORNING HRS. HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL THEN ARRIVE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS
DIMINISHING TO UNDER 20KT FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO QUEBEC WED NIGHT...AND THEN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...THE BASIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE ERN CONUS WITH A LOW PRES TROF FROM THE WRN HIGH PLAINS TO
HUDSON BAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY THU/FRI MAY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS THU/THU NIGHT OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT WED THRU
SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ009>011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF AND
ASSOC STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING FM ND INTO NW MN. THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO SLOWLY PUSH A SFC COLD
FRONT ACROSS WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SFC
PLOT/ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS ALONG A CRYSTAL FALLS-MICHIGAMME
LINE. ALTHOUGH 12Z MODEL SNDGS INDICATE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE WITH T/TD OF 82/63...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LITTLE DVLPMT
TO CU FIELD UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
OVER NRN WI. SUSPECT THAT DRY ALOFT MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
AS NOTED ON VERY DRY 12Z KMPX SNDGS MAY BE INHIBITING CU DVLPMT OVER
THE FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF CU DVLPMT ON VIS SATELLITE MAY END UP
EVENTUALLY HAVING TO BACK OFF ON POPS TO SLIGHT CHC OVER CENTRAL AND
ERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. IF SOME
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR STORM GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KTS OVER THE AREA. RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS OUT
COMPLETELY SINCE FRONT IS STILL APPROACHING BUT CHC OF PCPN IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE DOUBTFUL THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN
CWA. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MIXING/INSTABILITY
WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LOOK FOR LOWS
TO REACH INTO THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY
ALONG WITH THE 8H THERMAL TROF AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND 0C.
WITH GOOD CAA IN THE WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MIXING
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WHILE DEEPER SOUTH CENTRAL WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC SFC-850 MB FLOW AND RDGG BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD SCOUR OUT LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO...WE WILL MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE CO ROCKIES.
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT 31-36F INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS WINDS GO
NEARLY CALM AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY THROUGH...WITH
MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S BY 18Z. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT
IN MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND 25-30 PERCENT EAST. EXPECT THE RETURN OF LIGHT/SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE HURON AND STRETCHES THROUGH
QUEBEC...STILL BELOW 15MPH. DID PUSH THE FCST CLOSER TO THESE LOWEST
VALUES.
THE ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND E CO/NM THURSDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. ALTHOUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS /20-35KTS BETWEEN THE SFC AND
850MB/...MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL. MIN RH VALUES
COULD STILL NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR W UPPER MI BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST FOR SUNDAY MONDAY REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOT GO
TOO FAR IN DEPTH WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT PERIOD. THE WESTERN SFC
LOW WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NWS ONTARIO AND MN BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL REMAINING TO OUR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM/HOT
WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS S WINDS REMAIN STEADY AND 850MB
TEMPS RISE AGAIN TO 16 TO 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AT KIWD/KSAW AND
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX AND THEN IN THE MORNING AT KSAW AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LS THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF HIGH NEARING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. W-NW GUSTS OF 30 TO POSSIBLY 30KTS WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LS THROUGH SATURDAY...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PATTERN WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND OF SC. LATEST RUC HRLY
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES YET ADDITIONAL WEAK SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SFC WIND FIELD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BY
2 AM THE LATEST...AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS
ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND TIL THIS BOUNDARIES DEPARTURE. DRIER AIR IE.
LOWER DEWPOINTS...WILL BE A TAD SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ILM
CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT MINS
AND HRLY DEWPOINTS UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...
TO ACCOMMODATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHILE OFFSHORE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY DAY AND PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES MORE BY NIGHT...THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 50S
WELL INLAND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NE TO MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH FROM LBT TO THE WEST OF
FLO...AND THE SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VCTS NEAR CRE/MYR 00-01Z...EXPECT
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH DRYING LOW AND MID LEVELS VFR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFFSHORE MAY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND MAY CONSTITUTE A
LOW VFR CEILING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL BECOME DOMINATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY 5 TO 10 KT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT DURING THE THU PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS A RESULT OF THE FRONT MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AS DECENT RIDGING
FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER SE CANADA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. SPEEDS
COULD REACH AROUND 15 KT BY DAYBREAK FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS. OVERNIGHT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THE MORE DOMINANT PLAYER WITH REGARD TO SIG SEAS...
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION
COULD AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET EARLY
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF THU.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL NE FLOW TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. IN THIS COAST- PARALLEL
FLOW THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT FROM THE
COAST TO THE 20NM FORECAST ZONE BORDER...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME 6 FT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT EASE IN THE
GRADIENT TRANSLATING TO AN APPROXIMATE 5KT DROP IN SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FOR SUNDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES BUT SCEC HEADLINES
ARE TOUGH TO RULE OUT EARLY ON. AN EASTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER RESULTING IN A MORE
PRONOUNCED ABATING OF THE SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PATTERN WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST RUC HRLY MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE DRIVING SOUTH AIDING THE CONTINUED FIRING OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM ILM NC EARLIER CONVECTION...HAS PUSHED NEARLY
1 FULL COUNTY INLAND FROM THE ILM SC COAST. LOOK FOR THESE CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST VIA LATEST
STORM MOTIONS FROM HRLY PROGGED SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE POPS FOR UP
TO SEVERAL HRS AFTER SUNSET WITH CONVECTION EITHER DISSIPATING OR
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS UPDATE WILL
ALSO ADD A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS FOR SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MIN TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS AOK AND SEE NO
TWEAKING NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE 500 MB TROUGH DID ALOFT.
THIS ALLOWED A LIGHT BUT DEEP-LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS LAGGED BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES AND IS JUST NOW PRESSING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED CUMULUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. BY 6 PM THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO
BRITTONS NECK TO MYRTLE BEACH. THE NEW AIRMASS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
IS QUITE DISSIMILAR TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS: PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES CURRENTLY SHOULD
FALL TO 1.0 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TO 0.7 INCHES BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING A MILD AIRMASS SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS DON`T BUDGE MUCH...BUT WEAK COOL
ADVECTION IN THE SFC-900 MB LAYER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHILE OFFSHORE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY DAY AND PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES MORE BY NIGHT...THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 50S
WELL INLAND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NE TO MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH FROM LBT TO THE WEST OF
FLO...AND THE SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VCTS NEAR CRE/MYR 00-01Z...EXPECT
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH DRYING LOW AND MID LEVELS VFR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFFSHORE MAY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND MAY CONSTITUTE A
LOW VFR CEILING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-ENE WINDS WILL BECOME DOMINATE THIS
EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF THE FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AS DECENT RIDGING FROM THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER SE CANADA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. SPEEDS COULD REACH AROUND 15
KT BY DAYBREAK FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. OVERNIGHT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT OFF CAPE
FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL CONTINUE THE MORE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIG SEAS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THIS EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL NE FLOW TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. IN THIS COAST- PARALLEL
FLOW THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT FROM THE
COAST TO THE 20NM FORECAST ZONE BORDER...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME 6 FT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT EASE IN THE
GRADIENT TRANSLATING TO AN APPROXIMATE 5KT DROP IN SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FOR SUNDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES BUT SCEC HEADLINES
ARE TOUGH TO RULE OUT EARLY ON. AN EASTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER RESULTING IN A MORE
PRONOUNCED ABATING OF THE SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
745 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PATTERN WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST RUC HRLY MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE DRIVING SOUTH AIDING THE CONTINUED FIRING OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM ILM NC EARLIER CONVECTION...HAS PUSHED NEARLY
1 FULL COUNTY INLAND FROM THE ILM SC COAST. LOOK FOR THESE CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST VIA LATEST
STORM MOTIONS FROM HRLY PROGGED SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE POPS FOR UP
TO SEVERAL HRS AFTER SUNSET WITH CONVECTION EITHER DISSIPATING OR
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS UPDATE WILL
ALSO ADD A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS FOR SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MIN TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS AOK AND SEE NO
TWEAKING NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE 500 MB TROUGH DID ALOFT.
THIS ALLOWED A LIGHT BUT DEEP-LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS LAGGED BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES AND IS JUST NOW PRESSING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED CUMULUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. BY 6 PM THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO
BRITTONS NECK TO MYRTLE BEACH. THE NEW AIRMASS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
IS QUITE DISSIMILAR TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS: PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES CURRENTLY SHOULD
FALL TO 1.0 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TO 0.7 INCHES BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING A MILD AIRMASS SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS DON`T BUDGE MUCH...BUT WEAK COOL
ADVECTION IN THE SFC-900 MB LAYER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHILE OFFSHORE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY DAY AND PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES MORE BY NIGHT...THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 50S
WELL INLAND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NE TO MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH FROM LBT TO THE WEST OF
FLO...AND THE SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VCTS FROM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF MYR
00-01Z...EXPECT NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAY-TIME HEATING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH DRYING LOW AND MID-LEVELS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO-25 20 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ENOUGH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFFSHORE MAY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO CONSTITUTE A LOW VFR
CEILING AT TIMES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-ENE WINDS WILL BECOME DOMINATE THIS
EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF THE FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AS DECENT RIDGING FROM THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER SE CANADA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. SPEEDS COULD REACH AROUND 15
KT BY DAYBREAK FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. OVERNIGHT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT OFF CAPE
FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL CONTINUE THE MORE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIG SEAS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THIS EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER UNCLIMATOLOGICAL NE FLOW TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. IN THIS COAST- PARALLEL
FLOW THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT FROM THE
COAST TO THE 20NM FORECAST ZONE BORDER...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME 6 FT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT EASE IN THE
GRADIENT TRANSLATING TO AN APPROXIMATE 5KT DROP IN SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FOR SUNDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES BUT SCEC HEADLINES
ARE TOUGH TO RULE OUT EARLY ON. AN EASTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER RESULTING IN A MORE
PRONOUNCED ABATING OF THE SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
715 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PATTERN WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST RUC HRLY MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE DRIVING SOUTH AIDING THE CONTINUED FIRING OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM ILM NC EARLIER CONVECTION...HAS PUSHED NEARLY
1 FULL COUNTY INLAND FROM THE ILM SC COAST. LOOK FOR THESE CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST VIA LATEST
STORM MOTIONS FROM HRLY PROGGED SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE POPS FOR UP
TO SEVERAL HRS AFTER SUNSET WITH CONVECTION EITHER DISSIPATING OR
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS UPDATE WILL
ALSO ADD A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS FOR SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MIN TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS AOK AND SEE NO
TWEAKING NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE 500 MB TROUGH DID ALOFT.
THIS ALLOWED A LIGHT BUT DEEP-LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS LAGGED BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES AND IS JUST NOW PRESSING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED CUMULUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. BY 6 PM THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO
BRITTONS NECK TO MYRTLE BEACH. THE NEW AIRMASS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
IS QUITE DISSIMILAR TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS: PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES CURRENTLY SHOULD
FALL TO 1.0 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TO 0.7 INCHES BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING A MILD AIRMASS SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS DON`T BUDGE MUCH...BUT WEAK COOL
ADVECTION IN THE SFC-900 MB LAYER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHILE OFFSHORE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY DAY AND PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES MORE BY NIGHT...THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 50S
WELL INLAND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NE TO MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH FROM LBT TO THE WEST OF
FLO...AND THE SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VCTS FROM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF MYR
00-01Z...EXPECT NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAY-TIME HEATING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH DRYING LOW AND MID-LEVELS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO-25 20 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ENOUGH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFFSHORE MAY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO CONSTITUTE A LOW VFR
CEILING AT TIMES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-ENE WINDS WILL BECOME DOMINATE THIS
EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF THE FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AS DECENT RIDGING FROM THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER SE CANADA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. SPEEDS COULD REACH AROUND 15
KT BY DAYBREAK FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. OVERNIGHT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT OFF CAPE
FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL CONTINUE THE MORE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIG SEAS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THIS EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER UNCLIMATOLOGICAL NE FLOW TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. IN THIS COAST- PARALLEL
FLOW THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT FROM THE
COAST TO THE 20NM FORECAST ZONE BORDER...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME 6 FT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT EASE IN THE
GRADIENT TRANSLATING TO AN APPROXIMATE 5KT DROP IN SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FOR SUNDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES BUT SCEC HEADLINES
ARE TOUGH TO RULE OUT EARLY ON. AN EASTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER RESULTING IN A MORE
PRONOUNCED ABATING OF THE SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
256 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
OVERVIEW:
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS (NEAR
I-77 PER 700 MB 15Z SPC MESOANALYSIS) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROGRESSING TO
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z WED MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
SFC-H85 REFLECTION ATTENDANT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN OH/TN VALLEY AT
15Z THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED TONIGHT...THEN PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
DESPITE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA SHOULD TEMPER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST
OF HWY 1...WHERE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROGGED AT BEST. IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION WILL LEAD
TO STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED AT
1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF I-77
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AT 15Z WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL (PWAT NEAR 2.00") AIRMASS.
15Z VWP DATA FROM SURROUNDING SITES ALREADY SHOW WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT GSP/RNK/CAE...SUGGESTING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
1...AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL (80%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THAT AREA. FURTHER WEST THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALREADY IN
VICINITY OF HWY 1...15Z WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KY/CENTRAL TN...AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL
DATA PROGS THIS FEATURE TO PROGRESS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IN VICINITY OF PEAK HEATING).
ALTERNATELY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROGRESS EAST/SE INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON VIA 15 KT W/NW
MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THE 00-12Z HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON... RANGING FROM
LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CLT-INT AT
20Z THAT PROGRESSES THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNSET.
ADDITIONALLY...LARGE MCS`S UPSTREAM OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT MAY HAVE
ALTERED THE MID-LEVELS IN A MANNER NOT CAPTURED WELL BY THE 00-06Z
MODEL RUNS...ADDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIP FORECAST. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES MUCH BELOW WHAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASING AND ENDING FROM NW-SE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA.
SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT:
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A THREAT FOR AREA-WIDE FLOODING GIVEN A LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY (ISOLD AREAS GOT 1-2") AND 1-3 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2-4" RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING
URBAN AREAS). HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...
RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HIGH-END...AND A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE
PRESENT...PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT...AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. RELATIVELY BETTER INSOLATION IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY YIELD 500-750 J/KG OF DCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...IN
THE PRESENCE OF 1.50"+ PWAT VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF PRECIP
LOADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER EVAP COOLING COULD RESULT IN ISOLD SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 300-800 PM.
TEMPERATURES:
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP HIGHS TODAY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER 80S...OR 81-85F. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD (DRY) FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT BY
SUNRISE WED...AND WILL INDICATE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
N/NW TO ~70F SOUTHEAST. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY:
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY IS
PROGGED TO PROGRESS TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z WED...WITH A MUCH
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
OH/TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT (AND WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE) OCCURRING
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WED MORNING...HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST THROUGH PEAK HEATING WED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE DRIER AIR NOT ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH/NE UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ALMOST EVERYWHERE...WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70F IN SOUTH/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND GOOD INSOLATION ASSOC/W DRIER MID-LEVELS...MLCAPE
VALUES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING...
PRIMARILY IN THE SANDHILLS/SW PIEDMONT. THOUGH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WED
AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BETWEEN 21-00Z IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING
AND/OR PRIOR TO THE ADVECTION OF THE DRIER /MORE STABLE/ LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
ARRIVE A BIT TOO LATE...AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT WOULD LIKELY
ACT TO HINDER EVEN ISOLD DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
CONFINED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF HWY 64 IN THE SANDHILLS/SW
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING CLOSER TOWARD SUNSET EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S. -VINCENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER
TROUGH WITH OUR REGION ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 50S
WITH THE NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MIXING WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
NC/SC. LOWS MAY BE HELD UP AS WELL BY THE NE FLOW AT 5-10 MPH. WE
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER NAM GUIDANCE...60-65 FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY...MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WILL BE LIKELY
AS THE NE FLOW ADVECTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS 75-82 (NE TO S). AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 55-62 RANGE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS WILL
BE 5-8 DEGREES BELOW THE MID JUNE NORMALS. -BADGETT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
AN EXTENDED DRY AND COOL PATTERN FOR MID JUNE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF COOL AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION INTO NC. FRI-SUN SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 (5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 77-82
RANGE... OR 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME RETROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
STRONG RIDING IS EXPECTED TO OUR NW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO
MID JUNE NORMALS... YET NOT QUITE ALL THE WAY BACK. LOWS 62-67 WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE 17Z INT TERMINAL REPORTING VFR CEILINGS.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2000-3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z AT ANY TAF SITE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING PEAK
HEATING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. AFTER SUNSET...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL TAF SITES GIVEN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LIGHT/VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS AND SOME EROSION OF CLOUD COVER AS THE MID-LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST. A COLD (DRY) FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESS INTO THE N/NW
PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY ADVECT
INTO THE INT/GSO TERMINALS TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT THE
RDU/RWI/FAY TERMINALS...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. ASIDE FROM LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS WED MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. LIGHT WEST/NW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z WED.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO CENTRAL NC.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE AREA (PRIMARILY RDU/RWI/FAY TERMINALS) ON THURSDAY...
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME...EXPECT A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN NE/NNE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
OVERVIEW:
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS (NEAR
I-77 PER 700 MB 15Z SPC MESOANALYSIS) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROGRESSING TO
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z WED MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
SFC-H85 REFLECTION ATTENDANT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN OH/TN VALLEY AT
15Z THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED TONIGHT...THEN PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
DESPITE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA SHOULD TEMPER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST
OF HWY 1...WHERE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROGGED AT BEST. IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION WILL LEAD
TO STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED AT
1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF I-77
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AT 15Z WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL (PWAT NEAR 2.00") AIRMASS.
15Z VWP DATA FROM SURROUNDING SITES ALREADY SHOW WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT GSP/RNK/CAE...SUGGESTING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
1...AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL (80%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THAT AREA. FURTHER WEST THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALREADY IN
VICINITY OF HWY 1...15Z WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KY/CENTRAL TN...AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL
DATA PROGS THIS FEATURE TO PROGRESS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IN VICINITY OF PEAK HEATING).
ALTERNATELY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROGRESS EAST/SE INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON VIA 15 KT W/NW
MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON... RANGING FROM
LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CLT-INT AT
20Z THAT PROGRESSES THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNSET.
ADDITIONALLY...LARGE MCS`S UPSTREAM OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT MAY HAVE
ALTERED THE MID-LEVELS IN A MANNER NOT CAPTURED WELL BY THE 00-06Z
MODEL RUNS...ADDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIP FORECAST. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES MUCH BELOW WHAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASING AND ENDING FROM NW-SE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA.
SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT:
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A THREAT FOR AREA-WIDE FLOODING GIVEN A LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY (ISOLD AREAS GOT 1-2") AND 1-3 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2-4" RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING
URBAN AREAS). HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...
RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HIGH-END...AND A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE
PRESENT...PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT...AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. RELATIVELY BETTER INSOLATION IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY YIELD 500-750 J/KG OF DCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...IN
THE PRESENCE OF 1.50"+ PWAT VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF PRECIP
LOADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER EVAP COOLING COULD RESULT IN ISOLD SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 300-800 PM.
TEMPERATURES:
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP HIGHS TODAY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER 80S...OR 81-85F. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD (DRY) FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT BY
SUNRISE WED...AND WILL INDICATE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
N/NW TO ~70F SOUTHEAST. -VINCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY:
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB.
THE MAIN COOL FRONT SHOULD EASE SLOWLY TO THE SSE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A PORTION OF THE WEAKENING NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TOWARD NC. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NNW... MOST MARKEDLY IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. AS A 60-70 KT SWRLY UPPER JET SHIFTS OVER THE
DELMARVA AND NJ... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SE
NC WORKING ON THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING WET BULB LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HERE... SO WILL LEAVE
IN CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. AN ANTICIPATED LOW
LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SUGGESTS WARM HIGHS OF 84-88... WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AREAWIDE... MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH WITH OUR REGION ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE
OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 50S WITH THE NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MIXING WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NC/SC. LOWS MAY BE HELD UP AS WELL BY THE
NE FLOW AT 5-10 MPH. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER NAM GUIDANCE...
60-65 FOR LOWS. THURSDAY... MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE NE FLOW ADVECTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ACROSS EASTERN VA INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 75-82 (NE TO S). AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 55-62 RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING... WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES BELOW THE MID JUNE
NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
AN EXTENDED DRY AND COOL PATTERN FOR MID JUNE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF COOL AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION INTO NC. FRI-SUN SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 (5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 77-82
RANGE... OR 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME RETROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
STRONG RIDING IS EXPECTED TO OUR NW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO
MID JUNE NORMALS... YET NOT QUITE ALL THE WAY BACK. LOWS 62-67 WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE 17Z INT TERMINAL REPORTING VFR CEILINGS.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2000-3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z AT ANY TAF SITE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING PEAK
HEATING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. AFTER SUNSET...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL TAF SITES GIVEN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LIGHT/VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS AND SOME EROSION OF CLOUD COVER AS THE MID-LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST. A COLD (DRY) FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESS INTO THE N/NW
PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY ADVECT
INTO THE INT/GSO TERMINALS TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT THE
RDU/RWI/FAY TERMINALS...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. ASIDE FROM LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS WED MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. LIGHT WEST/NW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z WED.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO CENTRAL NC.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE AREA (PRIMARILY RDU/RWI/FAY TERMINALS) ON THURSDAY...
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME...EXPECT A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN NE/NNE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSES OFFSHORE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
OVERVIEW:
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS (NEAR
I-77 PER 700 MB 15Z SPC MESOANALYSIS) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROGRESSING TO
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z WED MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
SFC-H85 REFLECTION ATTENDANT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN OH/TN VALLEY AT
15Z THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED TONIGHT...THEN PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
DESPITE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA SHOULD TEMPER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST
OF HWY 1...WHERE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROGGED AT BEST. IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION WILL LEAD
TO STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED AT
1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF I-77
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AT 15Z WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL (PWAT NEAR 2.00") AIRMASS.
15Z VWP DATA FROM SURROUNDING SITES ALREADY SHOW WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT GSP/RNK/CAE...SUGGESTING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
1...AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL (80%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THAT AREA. FURTHER WEST THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALREADY IN
VICINITY OF HWY 1...15Z WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KY/CENTRAL TN...AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL
DATA PROGS THIS FEATURE TO PROGRESS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IN VICINITY OF PEAK HEATING).
ALTERNATELY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROGRESS EAST/SE INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON VIA 15 KT W/NW
MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON... RANGING FROM
LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CLT-INT AT
20Z THAT PROGRESSES THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNSET.
ADDITIONALLY...LARGE MCS`S UPSTREAM OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT MAY HAVE
ALTERED THE MID-LEVELS IN A MANNER NOT CAPTURED WELL BY THE 00-06Z
MODEL RUNS...ADDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIP FORECAST. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES MUCH BELOW WHAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASING AND ENDING FROM NW-SE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA.
SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT:
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A THREAT FOR AREA-WIDE FLOODING GIVEN A LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY (ISOLD AREAS GOT 1-2") AND 1-3 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2-4" RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING
URBAN AREAS). HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...
RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HIGH-END...AND A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE
PRESENT...PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT...AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. RELATIVELY BETTER INSOLATION IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY YIELD 500-750 J/KG OF DCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...IN
THE PRESENCE OF 1.50"+ PWAT VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF PRECIP
LOADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER EVAP COOLING COULD RESULT IN ISOLD SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 300-800 PM.
TEMPERATURES:
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP HIGHS TODAY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER 80S...OR 81-85F. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD (DRY) FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT BY
SUNRISE WED...AND WILL INDICATE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
N/NW TO ~70F SOUTHEAST. -VINCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY:
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB.
THE MAIN COOL FRONT SHOULD EASE SLOWLY TO THE SSE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A PORTION OF THE WEAKENING NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TOWARD NC. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NNW... MOST MARKEDLY IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. AS A 60-70 KT SWRLY UPPER JET SHIFTS OVER THE
DELMARVA AND NJ... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SE
NC WORKING ON THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING WET BULB LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HERE... SO WILL LEAVE
IN CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. AN ANTICIPATED LOW
LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SUGGESTS WARM HIGHS OF 84-88... WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AREAWIDE... MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO A WEAK...SOUTHWARD DRIFTING SURFACE LOW
JUST OFFSHORE...WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTEND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH FOR SOME STRATUS THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE AN INITIAL
SURGE OF DRIER DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPEPR 40S OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG RECOVERY DURING THE
DAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 1400M...TO
AS LOW AS 1385M BASED ON THE GFS...LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. PATCHY STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY HELP TO
KEEP STRATUS SUPPRESSED CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOW MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH CENTRAL NC SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVE FEATURES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO FALL SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY....LEADING TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPEPR RIDGE WEAKENING
MORE RAPIDLY...WITH MCS ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE OH VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ALLOWS SOME ENERGY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST. WITH NO
CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHICH FEATURE WILL BECOME DOMINANT...AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH A SLIGHT
RECOVERY OF TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE 17Z INT TERMINAL REPORTING VFR CEILINGS.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2000-3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z AT ANY TAF SITE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING PEAK
HEATING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. AFTER SUNSET...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL TAF SITES GIVEN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LIGHT/VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS AND SOME EROSION OF CLOUD COVER AS THE MID-LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST. A COLD (DRY) FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESS INTO THE N/NW
PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY ADVECT
INTO THE INT/GSO TERMINALS TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT THE
RDU/RWI/FAY TERMINALS...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. ASIDE FROM LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS WED MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. LIGHT WEST/NW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z WED.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO CENTRAL NC.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE AREA (PRIMARILY RDU/RWI/FAY TERMINALS) ON THURSDAY...
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME...EXPECT A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN NE/NNE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/GIH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1236 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA
TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT... BRINGING DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
OVERVIEW:
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS (NEAR
I-77 PER 700 MB 15Z SPC MESOANALYSIS) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROGRESSING TO
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z WED MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
SFC-H85 REFLECTION ATTENDANT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN OH/TN VALLEY AT
15Z THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED TONIGHT...THEN PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
DESPITE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA SHOULD TEMPER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST
OF HWY 1...WHERE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROGGED AT BEST. IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER INSOLATION WILL LEAD
TO STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED AT
1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF I-77
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AT 15Z WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL (PWAT NEAR 2.00") AIRMASS.
15Z VWP DATA FROM SURROUNDING SITES ALREADY SHOW WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT GSP/RNK/CAE...SUGGESTING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
1...AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL (80%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THAT AREA. FURTHER WEST THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALREADY IN
VICINITY OF HWY 1...15Z WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KY/CENTRAL TN...AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL
DATA PROGS THIS FEATURE TO PROGRESS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IN VICINITY OF PEAK HEATING).
ALTERNATELY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROGRESS EAST/SE INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON VIA 15 KT W/NW
MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON... RANGING FROM
LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CLT-INT AT
20Z THAT PROGRESSES THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNSET.
ADDITIONALLY...LARGE MCS`S UPSTREAM OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT MAY HAVE
ALTERED THE MID-LEVELS IN A MANNER NOT CAPTURED WELL BY THE 00-06Z
MODEL RUNS...ADDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIP FORECAST. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES MUCH BELOW WHAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASING AND ENDING FROM NW-SE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA.
SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT:
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A THREAT FOR AREA-WIDE FLOODING GIVEN A LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY (ISOLD AREAS GOT 1-2") AND 1-3 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2-4" RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING
URBAN AREAS). HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...
RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HIGH-END...AND A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE
PRESENT...PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT...AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. RELATIVELY BETTER INSOLATION IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY YIELD 500-750 J/KG OF DCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...IN
THE PRESENCE OF 1.50"+ PWAT VALUES. THIS COMBINATION OF PRECIP
LOADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER EVAP COOLING COULD RESULT IN ISOLD SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 300-800 PM.
TEMPERATURES:
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP HIGHS TODAY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER 80S...OR 81-85F. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD (DRY) FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT BY
SUNRISE WED...AND WILL INDICATE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
N/NW TO ~70F SOUTHEAST. -VINCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY:
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB.
THE MAIN COOL FRONT SHOULD EASE SLOWLY TO THE SSE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A PORTION OF THE WEAKENING NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TOWARD NC. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NNW... MOST MARKEDLY IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. AS A 60-70 KT SWRLY UPPER JET SHIFTS OVER THE
DELMARVA AND NJ... WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SE
NC WORKING ON THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING WET BULB LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HERE... SO WILL LEAVE
IN CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. AN ANTICIPATED LOW
LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SUGGESTS WARM HIGHS OF 84-88... WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AREAWIDE... MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO A WEAK...SOUTHWARD DRIFTING SURFACE LOW
JUST OFFSHORE...WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTEND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH FOR SOME STRATUS THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE AN INITIAL
SURGE OF DRIER DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPEPR 40S OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG RECOVERY DURING THE
DAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 1400M...TO
AS LOW AS 1385M BASED ON THE GFS...LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. PATCHY STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY HELP TO
KEEP STRATUS SUPPRESSED CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOW MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH CENTRAL NC SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVE FEATURES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO FALL SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY....LEADING TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPEPR RIDGE WEAKENING
MORE RAPIDLY...WITH MCS ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE OH VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ALLOWS SOME ENERGY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST. WITH NO
CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHICH FEATURE WILL BECOME DOMINANT...AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH A SLIGHT
RECOVERY OF TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 738 AM TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIS IN THE TRIAD THROUGH 14Z
WHEN A SLOW LIFT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS AT 18Z. MVFR CIGS AT RDU/RWI/FAY... SIMILARLY... WILL
ALSO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY 17-18Z. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE FRONT LOCATED THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND GULF STATES THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CURRENT ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS... AND THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SLOWLY RISING CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER... AS CIGS LIFT... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE... AND A PERIOD OF
LOCAL MVFR CIGS -- AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR -- ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE 17Z-23Z... WITH RAIN EXITING WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST AS
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC STARTING LATE THIS EVENING... THE
DAMP GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY FOSTER MVFR TO IFR GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... MVFR TO IFR GROUND FOG IS LIKELY TO
DISPERSE PRIOR TO 12Z AT INT/GSO BUT MAY LINGER UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
12Z AT RDU/RWI/FAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WEDNESDAY
AREAWIDE... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT FAY AND LOCAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
910 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASK AND WAS DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST. TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT
TONIGHT AND THU AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW AND WAS PUNCHING INTO WESTERN ND.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE JET.
MODELS FORECAST LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE OVER SD OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS THAT FORM OVER EASTERN SD. TRAJECTORY WOULD
MOVE STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST ND...WEST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MN OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASE POPS ARE OVER ND ZONES LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM SPC HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST.
COLD POOL OVER NORTHWEST MN WAS SHIFTING NORTH. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 310 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE LATE TONIGHT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
MN DURING THE DAY TODAY HEADING OFF TO THE EAST...WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE OVER MT. VIS SAT LOOP HAS SOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS TOWERING
CU OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH FITS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AROUND 800 J/KG AND NOT MUCH CAP. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF ECHOES
ON RADAR HAS NOT REALLY BEEN HAPPENING...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS
THE BEST CAPE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HRRR HAS SOME BLIPS IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
QUICKLY DISAPPEARING AND MOST OF THE ACTIVITY COMING IN LATER
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COMES EAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOMETHING CAN GET GOING THIS
EVENING.
ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING STORMS OUT
IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
IS...AND BRINGING SOMETHING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY MORNING.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY 12Z...AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR INCREASES INTO THE 60
TO 70 KT RANGE. THINK THAT THE PRECIP COULD COME EASTWARD AS A
POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO 70
PERCENT OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND PUT IN A SEVERE
MENTION. WITH PWATS GETTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TOMORROW...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD AND BE MOSTLY IN MN BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CAPE ABOVE 1500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KTS. JUST INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS MENTION THOUGH AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SFC PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH NOT COMING IN UNTIL THE NEXT
SYSTEM STARTS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WITH THE NAM MOST
PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE TROUGH OUT INTO THE PLAINS. LEANED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS AND ECMWF. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS IN THE
50-70 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WARM...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY
AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 20 C IN THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
.LONG TERM... /SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED/
UPPER WAVE/LOW OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...
RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF TSTMS OR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE TO NOT SEE ACTIVITY
WILL BE SAT NIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE EXITS EASTERN ZONES AND
SUBSIDENCE SETS IN. SUN MORNING SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL...BEFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES AGAIN BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AS THE PERIOD WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH BLOW OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CIGS ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FT. A LOWER CLOUD DECK WAS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN WAS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 HUNDRED FT AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THU AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDY AGAIN THU...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH FROM THE WEST
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TRIM POPS ACROSS ALL BUT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STORMS COMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN HAVING TROUBLE AND WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTH.
MAIN AREA OF STORMS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING SOUTH AND EAST OF
LUBBOCK...AND LATEST RUN OF HRRR DOES KEEP DEVELOPING STORMS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE CHC POPS GOING THERE. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA IF STORMS CAN GET
GOING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 89 70 92 / 20 20 20 20
HOBART OK 67 90 69 92 / 30 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 92 73 96 / 40 20 20 10
GAGE OK 68 88 70 90 / 20 30 40 20
PONCA CITY OK 69 88 70 92 / 10 20 10 30
DURANT OK 70 89 71 93 / 40 30 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR BEFORE NOON. ALTHOUGH
WLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR MASS IS TO THE WEST AND COULD MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE WRN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z KGSO RAOB IS INDICATIVE OF THE MOIST AIR
MASS WHILE THE KFFC RAOB SHOWS THE DRIER WLY FLOW AIR MASS. THE
DRIER AIR MASS SUPPORTS HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH BETTER SFC HEATING
AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE WEST...
EXPECT MORE INSTABILITY THERE AND AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE ERN CWFA WHERE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS LATER. WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS...DRIER MID LEVELS COULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHC OF DOWNBURSTS WHERE STRONGER STORMS FORM.
VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS SHOWN ON THE OBSERVED RAOBS OR 12Z UPPER AIR
CHARTS...SO NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED
HIGHS WITH THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE TEMP
DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN THE DRIER WEST AND MOISTER EAST QUITE WELL.
AS OF 510 AM TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHRA ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA
ATTM. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DEVELOP PER LOWERING
VSBYS ON SOME REGION ASOS AND AWOS STATIONS. DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE ZONES FOR ALL FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS THROUGH 12 UTC
AS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAK LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TIME. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED A LITTLE ALONG THE TN LINE. A
WEAK MCV WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IT HAS TRIGGERED SHOWERS OVER
ERN TN AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN NC MTNS WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAD A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED H5 SHORT WAVE
OVER ERN TN. IT DROPS THIS FEATURE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTN IT/S LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
GA. THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER THE WRN
CAROLINAS... WHILE THE NAM IS NOT A STRONG WITH THE WAVE.
OVERALL...THE GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS LOOK MODESTLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTN WITH CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1200-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. THE NAM
STILL HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT IT MAINTAINS MORE CAPPING IN
THE LOW LEVELS. I STILL PLAN TO CARRY LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
RECENT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE SHORT WAVE DOES NOT BODE AS WELL FOR
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WITH MORE DRYING ALOFT...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS TODAY. IN FACT...THE NAM SFC
DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. I HAVE CONVECTION
ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION EVEN WITH THE BNDRY PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY....THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE
CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE EARLY PHASE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...ISO ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM L80S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO THE U80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF I-85 ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY BLOCK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN THE
RIDGE CENTER ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CWA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK LLVL CIN WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MTNS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL MAINTAIN
DIURNAL SCHC ACROSS THE MTNS FOR SHRA AND TSRA. TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY...RANGING FROM U70S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID 80S EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO L60S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE 200 TO 400
FOOT RANGE UP UNTIL AROUND 14 UTC. THEREAFTER THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT
FAIRLY QUICKLY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AND A FEW HEAVIER SHRA WILL
ALSO LAST THROUGH 14 UTC. BY EARLY AFTN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE AIRFIELD AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION.
THE STORMS SHOULD END AROUND 00 UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AIRFIELD ABOUT THAT TIME...TURNING WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND TURN OUT OF THE NE
TOWARD MORNING.
KAVL AND KHKY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS MADE IT HARDER FOR LOW CIGS TO
FORM AT KAVL AND KHKY. AFTER 12 UTC CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE VFR...THOUGH PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS WILL STILL BE IN
THE VICINITY UNTIL AROUND 13 UTC. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF BOTH AIRFIELDS. THE WINDS
SHOULD TURN OUT OF THE NW AT KHKY BY LATE AFTN AND THE WINDS WILL BE
NW THROUGH THE DAY AT KAVL. DRIER AIR TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG.
ELSEWHERE...200 TO 400 FOOT CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO THE THE MVFR RANGE
BY 14 UTC AS THE WINDS TURN MORE DOWNSLOPE AT KGMU AND KGSP. AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL END BY THAT TIME AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BETTER AT KAND. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE AIRFIELDS
THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
END BY 00 UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OUT OF THE NE BY SUNRISE
WED.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME AFFECT
ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 510 AM TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHRA ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA
ATTM. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DEVELOP PER LOWERING
VSBYS ON SOME REGION ASOS AND AWOS STATIONS. DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE ZONES FOR ALL FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS THROUGH 12 UTC
AS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAK LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TIME. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED A LITTLE ALONG THE TN LINE. A
WEAK MCV WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IT HAS TRIGGERED SHOWERS OVER
ERN TN AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN NC MTNS WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAD A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED H5 SHORT WAVE
OVER ERN TN. IT DROPS THIS FEATURE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTN IT/S LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
GA. THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER THE WRN
CAROLINAS... WHILE THE NAM IS NOT A STRONG WITH THE WAVE.
OVERALL...THE GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS LOOK MODESTLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTN WITH CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1200-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. THE NAM
STILL HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT IT MAINTAINS MORE CAPPING IN
THE LOW LEVELS. I STILL PLAN TO CARRY LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
RECENT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE SHORT WAVE DOES NOT BODE AS WELL FOR
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WITH MORE DRYING ALOFT...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS TODAY. IN FACT...THE NAM SFC
DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. I HAVE CONVECTION
ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION EVEN WITH THE BNDRY PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY....THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE
CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE EARLY PHASE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...ISO ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM L80S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO THE U80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF I-85 ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY BLOCK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN THE
RIDGE CENTER ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CWA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK LLVL CIN WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MTNS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL MAINTAIN
DIURNAL SCHC ACROSS THE MTNS FOR SHRA AND TSRA. TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY...RANGING FROM U70S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID 80S EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO L60S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE 200 TO 400
FOOT RANGE UP UNTIL AROUND 14 UTC. THEREAFTER THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT
FAIRLY QUICKLY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AND A FEW HEAVIER SHRA WILL
ALSO LAST THROUGH 14 UTC. BY EARLY AFTN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE AIRFIELD AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION.
THE STORMS SHOULD END AROUND 00 UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AIRFIELD ABOUT THAT TIME...TURNING WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND TURN OUT OF THE NE
TOWARD MORNING.
KAVL AND KHKY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS MADE IT HARDER FOR LOW CIGS TO
FORM AT KAVL AND KHKY. AFTER 12 UTC CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE VFR...THOUGH PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS WILL STILL BE IN
THE VICINITY UNTIL AROUND 13 UTC. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF BOTH AIRFIELDS. THE WINDS
SHOULD TURN OUT OF THE NW AT KHKY BY LATE AFTN AND THE WINDS WILL BE
NW THROUGH THE DAY AT KAVL. DRIER AIR TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG.
ELSEWHERE...200 TO 400 FOOT CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO THE THE MVFR RANGE
BY 14 UTC AS THE WINDS TURN MORE DOWNSLOPE AT KGMU AND KGSP. AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL END BY THAT TIME AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BETTER AT KAND. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE AIRFIELDS
THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
END BY 00 UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OUT OF THE NE BY SUNRISE
WED.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME AFFECT
ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 510 AM TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHRA ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA
ATTM. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DEVELOP PER LOWERING
VSBYS ON SOME REGION ASOS AND AWOS STATIONS. DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE ZONES FOR ALL FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS THROUGH 12 UTC
AS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAK LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TIME. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED A LITTLE ALONG THE TN LINE. A
WEAK MCV WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IT HAS TRIGGERED SHOWERS OVER
ERN TN AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN NC MTNS WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAD A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED H5 SHORT WAVE
OVER ERN TN. IT DROPS THIS FEATURE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTN IT/S LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
GA. THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER THE WRN
CAROLINAS... WHILE THE NAM IS NOT A STRONG WITH THE WAVE.
OVERALL...THE GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS LOOK MODESTLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTN WITH CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1200-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. THE NAM
STILL HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT IT MAINTAINS MORE CAPPING IN
THE LOW LEVELS. I STILL PLAN TO CARRY LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
RECENT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE SHORT WAVE DOES NOT BODE AS WELL FOR
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WITH MORE DRYING ALOFT...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS TODAY. IN FACT...THE NAM SFC
DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. I HAVE CONVECTION
ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION EVEN WITH THE BNDRY PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY....THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE
CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE EARLY PHASE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...ISO ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM L80S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO THE U80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF I-85 ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY BLOCK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN THE
RIDGE CENTER ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CWA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK LLVL CIN WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MTNS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL MAINTAIN
DIURNAL SCHC ACROSS THE MTNS FOR SHRA AND TSRA. TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY...RANGING FROM U70S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID 80S EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO L60S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
BNDRY LAYER HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 400 AND 600 FEET THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE MIXING INTO A VFR CU FIELD IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AIRFIELD. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY I DIDN/T
THINK THE SHRA WOULD MAKE IT TO KCLT...BUT IF THE INCREASING TREND
CONTINUES...SOME SHRA WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF. AN UPPER LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...KICKING OFF NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN...LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PROB30 HAS BEEN
INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ELSEWHERE...LIKE AT KCLT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS CIGS WHICH HAVE GENERALLY SETTLED
INTO THE 400 TO 600 FOOT RANGE. THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KAVL AND KHKY WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS NEAR THE MTNS...AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN CARRIED AT
KGSP...KGMU AND KHKY MOST OF THE NIGHT WHERE THE LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CIGS WILL MIX INTO A
VFR CU FIELD IN THE AFTN. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AS
AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR TSTMS IS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME AFFECT
ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP HAD A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED H5 SHORT WAVE
OVER ERN TN. IT DROPS THIS FEATURE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTN IT/S LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
GA. THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER THE WRN
CAROLINAS... WHILE THE NAM IS NOT A STRONG WITH THE WAVE.
OVERALL...THE GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS LOOK MODESTLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTN WITH CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1200-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION. THE NAM
STILL HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT IT MAINTAINS MORE CAPPING IN
THE LOW LEVELS. I STILL PLAN TO CARRY LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
RECENT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE SHORT WAVE DOES NOT BODE AS WELL FOR
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WITH MORE DRYING ALOFT...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS TODAY. IN FACT...THE NAM SFC
DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. I HAVE CONVECTION
ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION EVEN WITH THE BNDRY PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY....THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE
CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE EARLY PHASE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...ISO ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM L80S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO THE U80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF I-85 ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY BLOCK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN THE
RIDGE CENTER ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CWA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK LLVL CIN WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MTNS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL MAINTAIN
DIURNAL SCHC ACROSS THE MTNS FOR SHRA AND TSRA. TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY...RANGING FROM U70S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID 80S EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM U50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO L60S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
BNDRY LAYER HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 400 AND 600 FEET THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE MIXING INTO A VFR CU FIELD IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AIRFIELD. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY I DIDN/T
THINK THE SHRA WOULD MAKE IT TO KCLT...BUT IF THE INCREASING TREND
CONTINUES...SOME SHRA WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF. AN UPPER LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...KICKING OFF NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN...LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PROB30 HAS BEEN
INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ELSEWHERE...LIKE AT KCLT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS CIGS WHICH HAVE GENERALLY SETTLED
INTO THE 400 TO 600 FOOT RANGE. THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KAVL AND KHKY WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LIGHT SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS NEAR THE MTNS...AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN CARRIED AT
KGSP...KGMU AND KHKY MOST OF THE NIGHT WHERE THE LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CIGS WILL MIX INTO A
VFR CU FIELD IN THE AFTN. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AS
AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR TSTMS IS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME AFFECT
ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.UPDATE...
RUC/NAM SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE REGION
THIS EVENING. RUC HANDLED EARLIER STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WELL. NAM TIMED THE ONES WEST OF THE MO ALMOST
PERFECTLY. ANTICIPATING FIRST WARNING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR FOR
CORSON COUNTY. INCREASED POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FOR
OVERNIGHT AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION SO BUMPED THOSE UP AS WELL.
WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN MONTANA...MAKING
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS TROUGH/COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST...ENTERING WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOW TO RESPOND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENOUGH TO
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT. NAM ML CAPE VALUES ARE
STILL PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 7 TO 9 C/KM ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL COME TOGETHER WITH A STRONG 50 KT LLJ TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND
WIND...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE WIND...SINCE MODEL 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. A HIGH SHEAR...HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
BE INDICATIVE OF A BOWING LINE OF STORMS...HOWEVER THE LIMITING
FACTOR TONIGHT MAY BE THE CAPE...WHICH IS ON THE WEAKER END.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE CWA...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION FRIDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT MAY BE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF WAVES/VORTS IS
MIDDLING AT BEST. THEREFORE TOOK MORE OF A GFS ENSEMBLE APPROACH
TO POPS/WX AND TRIED TO MINIMIZE MENTION WHERE THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THAT SAID MOST
PERIODS STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION DUE TO
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE MODEL BLEND LOOKED
FINE FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL IN THE VCNTY OF THE ND/SD BORDER LATE
TNT. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND COULD CAUSE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMBG/KABR TERMINALS. PATCHY MVFR
CIGS COULD FOLLOW ANY PCPN/STORMS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW BUT WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
132 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AS SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HWO WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS
TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH MOVES THEM INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. MODELS INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS FROM THIS EVENINGS
CONVECTION. THE AREA WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE TODAY AS YESTERDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUN SHOWS
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE 00Z GFS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL
WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING THUS WILL NOT BE USED IN THE SHORT
TERM. THUS WILL LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR MAINLY THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLY LEAVING LIKELY POPS ACROSS PHILLIPS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 7 AM. ELSEWHERE...WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN AT LEAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY A TAD
WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. 00Z GFS INDICATES DIURNAL HEATING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR. FRIDAY SEEMS A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOISTURE
RETURN TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS WILL REMOVE POPS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. MOST OF
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED AND SCATTERED MVFR CIGS ARE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NNW THIS AFTERNOON AT ABT 8 KTS AND THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 87 65 86 66 / 40 10 0 0
MKL 87 59 84 57 / 10 10 0 0
JBR 88 61 86 61 / 10 10 0 0
TUP 84 63 87 62 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM...BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AS SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HWO WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS
TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH MOVES THEM INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. MODELS INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS FROM THIS EVENINGS
CONVECTION. THE AREA WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE TODAY AS YESTERDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUN SHOWS
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE 00Z GFS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL
WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING THUS WILL NOT BE USED IN THE SHORT
TERM. THUS WILL LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR MAINLY THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLY LEAVING LIKELY POPS ACROSS PHILLIPS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 7 AM. ELSEWHERE...WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN AT LEAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY A TAD
WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. 00Z GFS INDICATES DIURNAL HEATING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR. FRIDAY SEEMS A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOISTURE
RETURN TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS WILL REMOVE POPS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH JBR AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
MEM AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY BEHIND AND FRONT TODAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AROUND TUP. ONGOING CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUP...SO WITHOUT ANY ONGOING STORM TO BASE
TIMING ON...JUST INCLUDED VCSH AFTER 16Z. ALL PRECIP WILL END
TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING
IN VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 87 65 86 66 / 40 10 0 0
MKL 87 59 84 57 / 10 10 0 0
JBR 88 61 86 61 / 10 10 0 0
TUP 84 63 87 62 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
625 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS
TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH MOVES THEM INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. MODELS INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS FROM THIS EVENINGS
CONVECTION. THE AREA WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE TODAY AS YESTERDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUN SHOWS
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE 00Z GFS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL
WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING THUS WILL NOT BE USED IN THE SHORT
TERM. THUS WILL LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR MAINLY THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLY LEAVING LIKELY POPS ACROSS PHILLIPS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 7 AM. ELSEWHERE...WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN AT LEAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY A TAD
WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. 00Z GFS INDICATES DIURNAL HEATING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR. FRIDAY SEEMS A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOISTURE
RETURN TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS WILL REMOVE POPS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS.
KRM
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH JBR AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
MEM AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY BEHIND AND FRONT TODAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AROUND TUP. ONGOING CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUP...SO WITHOUT ANY ONGOING STORM TO BASE
TIMING ON...JUST INCLUDED VCSH AFTER 16Z. ALL PRECIP WILL END
TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING
IN VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 88 65 86 66 / 20 10 0 0
MKL 88 59 84 57 / 10 10 0 0
JBR 89 61 86 61 / 10 10 0 0
TUP 87 63 87 62 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO
NEAR LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH MOVES THEM INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. MODELS INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS FROM THIS EVENINGS
CONVECTION. THE AREA WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE TODAY AS YESTERDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUN SHOWS
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE 00Z GFS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL
WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING THUS WILL NOT BE USED IN THE SHORT
TERM. THUS WILL LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR MAINLY THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLY LEAVING LIKELY POPS ACROSS PHILLIPS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 7 AM. ELSEWHERE...WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN AT LEAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY A TAD
WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. 00Z GFS INDICATES DIURNAL HEATING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR. FRIDAY SEEMS A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOISTURE
RETURN TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS WILL REMOVE POPS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE...HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE
SOME FOG IN THE MORNING. IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP EXPECT IT TO BE
MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTH BY MORNING IN
ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE TUESDAY ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH TIMING OR LOCATION AS
STORMS WILL BE AT BEST SCATTERED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 88 65 86 66 / 20 10 0 0
MKL 88 59 84 57 / 10 10 0 0
JBR 89 61 86 61 / 10 10 0 0
TUP 87 63 87 62 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1235 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
EARLIER FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH DID UPDATE TO
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. INCREASED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT MAINLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO
NORTHWEST MS AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
PLOWED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EARLIER TODAY NOW STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL. THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS RAIN COOLED WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
NIL. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
EXIST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A
SOUTHWEST LY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM IN CENTRAL AR. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AREA
(POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) AND
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST SKIRTING EAST-CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS.
A FEW STRONG ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH AND SMALL HAIL STILL LOOK POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE TONIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. READINGS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE BUT MAINLY WILL
REMAIN STEADY.
JCL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING AND
CLEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #373 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW EXITED OUR AREA. STRATIFORM
RAIN BEHIND THE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AT
MOST AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL
INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE
BACK OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD ACCOUNTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WORKED OVER
FROM THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION OR NEW CONVECTION MAY BE ELEVATED
OVER THE DECAYING COLD POOL. LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HWO HAVE BEEN SENT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
A SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND
DAMAGE AND THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. THIS
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF STRONGER
CAPPING/EML OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY BE WORKED OVER FROM THIS AFTERNOONS MCS.
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWS QUITE A BIT ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THIS AREA MAY BE PRIMED FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE POTENTIALLY RELOADING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THIS OCCURRENCE...BUT TIMING CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM AS
LATEST HRRR IS FASTER WITH MOST CONVECTION PRIOR TO 06Z AND ALL
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SLOWER AND LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT OVER THESE LOCATIONS. PLAN TO CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER THE
SOUTH AND WEST AFTER 06Z AND WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI BY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE. DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE
BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY HELPING TO LIMIT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY WARM WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE...HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE
SOME FOG IN THE MORNING. IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP EXPECT IT TO BE
MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTH BY MORNING IN
ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE TUESDAY ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH TIMING OR LOCATION AS
STORMS WILL BE AT BEST SCATTERED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 66 87 66 91 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 60 84 60 88 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 63 86 62 89 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 67 90 63 90 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
932 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS SCARCE...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE TRANSPECOS TRYING TO CROSS THE PECOS RIVER IN WESTERN
CROCKETT COUNTY. WHILE CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS REMOTE TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CAP...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS GFS
AND NAM MODELS WERE INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 10
PM.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WATCHING A FEW
TSTMS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WE HAD ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION EARLY TODAY BUT THIS HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE CWA LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING MCV ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE...YET
DISCERNIBLE...BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA PER THE
KSJT WSR-88D BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS BENIGN AT THIS TIME. LOOKING
WEST...MID LEVEL RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...I ANTICIPATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERAL VERSIONS OF THE HIRES WRF
AND THE HRRR ALL AGREE IN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES.
A LOOK AT THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE DEPICTS SBCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50
KTS. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WILL GIVE WAY.
THUS...WE DO HAVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT I AM
PLAYING THIS RATHER CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW THINKING THAT THE CAP
WILL HOLD FOR THE MOST PART AND ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS...I AM ONLY
CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 00Z. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S /BUT WILL LIKELY BE LOWER IF
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP/.
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
JOHNSON
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL BE ENVELOPED BY
ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AS WELL
WHILE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN UNDERNEATH RIDGING.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE NOT EXPANDED ANY OF THE
INHERITED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO DIRECTLY INFLUENCE US...AND THAT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GET GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST TEXAS AREA...THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO OUR WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW BACK OUT TO THE PACIFIC...AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOWERED TEMPERATURES...AND THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO TRY
TO SHOW SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY WX AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 92 72 93 72 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 97 73 98 73 98 / 20 20 10 10 10
JUNCTION 98 74 98 73 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
914 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.UPDATE...
THE 00Z KAMA /AND KDDC/ SOUNDINGS SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 700MB IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
INDICATED BY LAPS DATA. THIS CAPPING ALONG WITH A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAS KEPT THE CWA CONVECTION FREE SO FAR THIS
EVENING. CU THAT TRIED TO GROW ALONG A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT AXIS EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE HAS RECENTLY
DISSIPATED WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT
STRENGTHENING CIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WHILE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN KS HAS DISSIPATED.
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WEAK
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO WORK IN FROM
NM/FAR SOUTHERN CO OR FOR NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
MAY WORK IN FROM THE WEST...WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND CAPPING IN PLACE WILL KEEP
ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THAT THE
MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TOUGH EVEN FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE LLJ PRESENCE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NM...AND SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION SLOWLY WORKING THIS WAY...BUT KEEP THEM ON THE
LOW SIDE DUE TO ANTICIPATED WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING CONCERNS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP...THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY
TO TAP INTO ABOVE IT /MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF
STORMS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STRONG WINDS.
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL GIVING VERY MIXED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM VIRTUALLY NO ACTIVITY
INDICATED BY THE HRRR TO A SOLID LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OUN
WRF. AM SIDING WITH THE MUCH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES DUE TO THE
REASONS STATED ABOVE. ALSO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL PRESENCE TO AID IN MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT GIVEN
VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SO TO SUMMARIZE...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL. HOWEVER IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
UPPER TROUGH AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WOULD
BE THE TAF SITE WHICH COULD BE AFFECTED LATER TONIGHT BY ANY
CONVECTION. WILL HOLD OFF NOW MENTIONING IN THE TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED THE HEATING WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO BE FOR THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING...STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE NAM AND RAP...SHOW LARGE CAPE VALUES...1500
TO 3000 J/KG...AND MODEST SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SAW CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE
RAP WERE SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR KAMA...HOWEVER...EXPECT
THAT THIS WAS OVER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ALONG THE NOW RATHER
POORLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH. SO EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STORMS MOVING IN FROM NM.
TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...WITH THE GFS EVEN SHOWING THE DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES. WITH THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY SO FAR WEST...NOT
CERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THIS FAR EAST. WHEREVER IT
STALLS...IT SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. WITH EVEN WEAKER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW
TOMORROW...STORMS MAY NOT PROPAGATE VERY FAR FROM THE DRYLINE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA...EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THEN...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
TROUGH SLOWLY RETROGRESSING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH BUILDS IN
OVER TX...AND THEN RETROGRESSES ITSELF. WHAT MAKES THIS PATTERN
UNUSUAL IS THAT AT THE SAME TIME...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
SLOW...BUT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS OF
MODELS...WHICH SHOWED THE BROAD TROUGH STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT NE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE NEW SOLUTION...THERE ARE RATHER LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.
TUESDAY...IN ANOTHER STARK CONTRAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE
IS NO HINT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS IT IS DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR TO GET
STRONG COLD FRONTS THIS FAR SOUTH WITH OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
LOW OR TROUGH.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS TOMORROW...WHEN A WEAK
DRYLINE COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...RESULTING
IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
750 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.UPDATE...
AXIS OF ENHANCED CU WAS FOUND STRETCHING FROM SILVERTON SOUTHEAST
TO SPUR AND ASPERMONT ALONG THE WESTERN TERMINUS OF A SURFACE
MESOHIGH LEFTOVER FROM A COMPLEX OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. A FEW
OF THESE TCU HAVE ARE OCCASIONALLY MATURING INTO GREATER
DEPTHS WITH ECHOES EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC...BUT MANY
OF THESE ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY IN SUSTAINING THEMSELVES DUE
TO MARGINAL LL CONVERGENCE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A PRONOUNCED CAP
THAT WAS DIRECTLY SAMPLED BY AIRCRAFT IN/NEAR LBB IN RECENT HOURS.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR/TTU-WRF/OUN-WRF TEND ARE FAVORING SOME
DEGREE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS OF ERN NM THIS EVENING
BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ENTER A PROGRESSIVELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS /E.G.
UPPER RIDGING AND A REDUCED UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT/...CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT AS THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEAR ON STORMS
SHOULD DOT THE CWA. REASONING FOR THIS IS TIED TO A SUBTLE S/W
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE
LATE THIS MORNING AND SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LIFT WILL BE DEALT TO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THIS FEATURE CRESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
ADD TO THIS A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS PLAUSIBLE.
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO DELAY MENTION OF POPS UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING OVER ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE RECENT
CONVECTION IS STILL CYCLING THROUGH VARIOUS STAGES OF DEEP GROWTH.
POPS WERE ALSO EXTENDED OVERNIGHT GENERALLY OVER THE NERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOWER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM HAZE HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED
AT LBB...HOWEVER HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO 5SM THRU 01Z. PRECIP-
WISE...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST ISO TSRA TO MOVE OUT OF ERN NM LATE
THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF LBB...HOWEVER THERE ARE
CREDIBLE INDICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS THAT A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL THREATEN CDS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDRESSED
THIS SCENARIO WITH A SHORT 3-HOUR WINDOW OF TSRA WHICH WILL BE
REFINED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ASIDE FROM TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN
CIG/VIS IN STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY S-SELY WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
THANKS TO OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS THAT ROLLED ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT CU FIELD IS TRYING TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN. RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK CAP THAT IS BROKEN IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS AT KLBB WHILE HOLDING THE CAP IN PLACE FURTHER WEST AT
CLOVIS. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE CAP HOLDING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3500-4000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BUT 30-40 KNOTS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. THESE FACTORS
COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS /IF/
THEY ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THE POSSIBLE CAP
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WHAT THIS MAY DO FOR OUR CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AND ALSO MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE POP FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT.
WILL HOLD POPS IN THE LOW END OF CHANCE AS THE TTU/OUN WRF AND THE
HRRR HAVE ALL BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT GENERATING ANY STORMS OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS
LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z. ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THE
INCOMING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE MAY
INDICATE SOME KIND OF POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT
THAT MAY HELP STORMS TO FIRE. THE FLAVORS OF THE WRF HAVE SHOWN
THAT ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER
COMPLEX THAT COULD MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT BUT OPTED TO HOLD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO PUSHING TOWARDS THE STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE WARMUP SOMEWHAT.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED A PACIFIC UL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA...AND IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
THUS PERMIT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
FORECAST MODELS HINT AT ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...SO
MUCH SO THAT IT WILL OVERCOME THE LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF CIN.
FURTHERMORE...A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AS SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE INDUCE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SAID EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL EJECT NE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...WHERE PROGGED
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-1.5 KJ/KG EXISTS. IF STORMS DO INDEED
DEVELOP...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC UL DISTURBANCE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHILE CONCURRENTLY A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER ENSUES...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA. DESPITE SLIGHT
HEIGHT INCREASES FROM AN UA RIDGE...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL EXIST AS
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS PERSIST /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.00 INCH/...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING STEEPENED LAPSE RATES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
/SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-2.5 KJ/KG/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MORESO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES NEAREST TO THE
DRYLINE /HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS/. THE GFS
MAINTAINS BEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO COINCIDING WITH THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE SAID PERIOD...WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST /DRYLINE A BIT CLOSER
TO THE FA/. AS SUCH...STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND WILL THEREFORE OPT TO KEEP POPS BELOW 30
PERCENT ATTM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE LONG TERM MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN REGARD
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UA RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY MONDAY AS AN EASTERN CONUS UA RIDGE PROMOTES
AN UA LOW TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PERHAPS ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OFF THE CAPROCK TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND ALSO DEVELOPS AN UA RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE A TROPICAL SYSTEM TRANSLATES NORTH ACROSS OLD MEXICO
THUS STREAMING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA...AND A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF HINTS AT THE BROAD UA
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER TO SURGE A RELATIVELY WEAK DRY
COLD FRONT TO ACROSS FAR THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
RETREATING NORTH. WILL NEED TO ANALYZE FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR
CONSENSUS...AND WILL THEREFORE OPT TO MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 93 64 92 62 / 30 20 20 30 30
TULIA 66 91 65 91 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 69 92 67 91 67 / 30 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 69 95 67 93 66 / 30 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 69 94 69 93 68 / 30 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 69 95 68 94 66 / 30 20 20 30 30
BROWNFIELD 70 95 68 93 66 / 30 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 68 94 72 93 71 / 30 10 10 10 10
SPUR 70 94 70 93 69 / 20 10 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 73 95 74 95 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF TSRA
ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO
BE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT SHOULD DEVELOP
IN EASTERN NM/CO MOVES E OR ESE INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS COMPLEX
COULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...INCLUDING KDHT...AS EARLY AS
22 OR 23Z. IT WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES...INCLUDING KAMA AND KGUY...UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MVFR...OR
EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVY RAIN...VARIABLE AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS IN THIS COMPLEX. THOUGH ADDITIONAL STORMS BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER THIS PERIOD CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BR OR LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z...ONCE THE STORMS HAVE PASSED. THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE IN KAMA AND KGUY ESPECIALLY IF WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEY GET ADDITIONAL RAIN. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY
ALSO REMAIN TO BREEZY TO SEE MUCH BR DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THINKING IS NOW THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE 00Z AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EJECTING EAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THEN THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. ALSO ADDED A SEVERE MENTION TO THE
STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT KAMA WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BYPASS
KDHT AND KGUY THIS MORNING. A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT
TAKES THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FROM MORNING TSTMS. FOR THIS
REASON... HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INSERT TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE AFTER THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MESOSCALE SITUATION WILL EVOLVE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
TSTMS TO ONE OR MORE OF THE TAFS IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CLEAR CUT.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE AND WET WX PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA AS
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FA. THESE STORMS WERE BECOMING MORE UPSCALE AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS PER LAPS AND RAP DATA INDICATING
MUCAPES AROUND 200-600 J/KG. DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE RRQ OF A JET
STREAK AND LFQ OF A JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE PANHANDLES ARE ALSO
HELPING TO INTENSIFY THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE.
LATER TODAY...EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE
THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA ON BREEZY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS. SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING WEAK UPPER LIFT WHILE ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AND WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE 80S.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TREND MORE TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS NORTH. WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HOWEVER SEVERAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TAPS INTO THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC. STILL FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO BE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN THE FORECAST
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. THE STRENGTHENING OF A LEE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
END THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION
COMING AROUND MID-WEEK.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THINKING IS NOW THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE 00Z AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EJECTING EAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THEN THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. ALSO ADDED A SEVERE MENTION TO THE
STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT KAMA WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BYPASS
KDHT AND KGUY THIS MORNING. A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT
TAKES THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FROM MORNING TSTMS. FOR THIS
REASON... HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INSERT TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE AFTER THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MESOSCALE SITUATION WILL EVOLVE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
TSTMS TO ONE OR MORE OF THE TAFS IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CLEAR CUT.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE AND WET WX PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA AS
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FA. THESE STORMS WERE BECOMING MORE UPSCALE AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS PER LAPS AND RAP DATA INDICATING
MUCAPES AROUND 200-600 J/KG. DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE RRQ OF A JET
STREAK AND LFQ OF A JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE PANHANDLES ARE ALSO
HELPING TO INTENSIFY THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE.
LATER TODAY...EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE
THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA ON BREEZY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS. SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING WEAK UPPER LIFT WHILE ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AND WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE 80S.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TREND MORE TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS NORTH. WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HOWEVER SEVERAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TAPS INTO THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC. STILL FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO BE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN THE FORECAST
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. THE STRENGTHENING OF A LEE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
END THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION
COMING AROUND MID-WEEK.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT KAMA WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BYPASS
KDHT AND KGUY THIS MORNING. A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT
TAKES THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FROM MORNING TSTMS. FOR THIS
REASON... HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INSERT TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE AFTER THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MESOSCALE SITUATION WILL EVOLVE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
TSTMS TO ONE OR MORE OF THE TAFS IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CLEAR CUT.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE AND WET WX PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA AS
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FA. THESE STORMS WERE BECOMING MORE UPSCALE AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS PER LAPS AND RAP DATA INDICATING
MUCAPES AROUND 200-600 J/KG. DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE RRQ OF A JET
STREAK AND LFQ OF A JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE PANHANDLES ARE ALSO
HELPING TO INTENSIFY THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE.
LATER TODAY...EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE
THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA ON BREEZY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS. SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING WEAK UPPER LIFT WHILE ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AND WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE 80S.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TREND MORE TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS NORTH. WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HOWEVER SEVERAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TAPS INTO THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC. STILL FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO BE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN THE FORECAST
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. THE STRENGTHENING OF A LEE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
END THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION
COMING AROUND MID-WEEK.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
444 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE AND WET WX PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA AS
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FA. THESE STORMS WERE BECOMING MORE UPSCALE AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS PER LAPS AND RAP DATA INDICATING
MUCAPES AROUND 200-600 J/KG. DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE RRQ OF A JET
STREAK AND LFQ OF A JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE PANHANDLES ARE ALSO
HELPING TO INTENSIFY THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE.
LATER TODAY...EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE
THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA ON BREEZY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS. SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING WEAK UPPER LIFT WHILE ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AND WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE 80S.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TREND MORE TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS NORTH. WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HOWEVER SEVERAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TAPS INTO THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC. STILL FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO BE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN THE FORECAST
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. THE STRENGTHENING OF A LEE TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
END THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION
COMING AROUND MID-WEEK.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
CLK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 83 63 87 66 92 / 40 50 30 20 20
BEAVER OK 86 63 93 67 96 / 20 40 30 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 85 62 88 63 94 / 30 40 30 20 20
BORGER TX 86 68 90 68 93 / 30 50 30 20 20
BOYS RANCH TX 85 64 91 65 96 / 40 50 30 20 20
CANYON TX 85 64 88 63 93 / 40 50 30 20 20
CLARENDON TX 84 67 88 67 92 / 40 60 30 20 20
DALHART TX 83 62 89 62 92 / 40 50 30 20 20
GUYMON OK 85 65 91 65 92 / 30 50 30 20 20
HEREFORD TX 83 66 87 61 92 / 40 50 30 20 20
LIPSCOMB TX 85 66 90 69 92 / 20 40 30 20 20
PAMPA TX 83 65 89 65 90 / 30 50 30 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 84 67 87 68 90 / 30 50 30 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 87 69 88 68 92 / 30 50 30 20 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1202 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.AVIATION...
SOME COMPLEXITIES TO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST CENTERED AROUND
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTCOMES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN HINTING FOR DAYS AT DEVELOPING A MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING CHILDRESS.
HOWEVER..WHILE SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN NE NEW MEXICO
IT HAS FAILED TO GROW SUBSTANTIALLY UPSCALE. THEREFORE...GIVEN
OBSERVATIONS WILL NOT CALL FOR TSRA AT KCDS OVERNIGHT THOUGH THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS LIKELY ALSO
INFLUENCED BY PERCEIVED CONVECTIVE THREAT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME FOG. BUT...GIVEN 15 DEGREE TDD VALUES AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL ALSO NOT BITE ON THAT BONE EITHER IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WHICH MAY AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS REMAINED REMOVED FROM THE CWA.
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH HAVE
SKIRTED AROUND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE FA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS UP TO THIS POINT. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WAS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND COULD YET BE THE
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT DOES NOT SEEM AS
LIKELY AND HAVE DROPPED POPS GENERALLY TO AOB 20 PERCENT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS...AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD YET BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME LATE NIGHT
ELEVATED STORMS...IF WARM MID-LEVELS /CIN/ CAN BE OVERCOME. NOT
CERTAIN OF THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE 00Z NAM DOES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE 23Z HRRR DOES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE RATHER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NE NM WILL GROW UPSCALE LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA
AFTER 06Z. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...A FEW
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERHAPS A CAVEAT
OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK QUITE MEAGER THIS EVENING AND
HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF TSRA. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT AN MCS
MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO FOR A COUPLE DAYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IF THIS ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT...KCDS LOOKS TO HAVE MOST LIKELY
SHOT AT GETTING STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM. AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES NEAR KCDS...WE COULD SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP THERE
TOWARD MORNING. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY...STORM
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
SHORT TERM...
POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SFC
ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST ABOUT
STALLED NEAR A HOBBS TO SWEETWATER TO WICHITA FALLS LINE. SOME
MOISTURE POOLING IS EVIDENT EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. NORTH OF
THE FRONT UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER
TOWARD THE EAST. LOOKING AT TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CAPPING
INVERSION BE BREACHED...ONE BEING THE VCNTY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
COULD SEE SOME STORMS MOVE INTO THE SERN ZONES AND THE SECOND BEING
THE HIGH TERRAIN JUST WEST OF THE FCST AREA WHERE MODESTLY MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISO TO SCT THUNDER THERE WITH
A POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO THE WRN ZONES DURING THE EVENING. MOVING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY TUESDAY BEGINS TO BREED MIXED
SIGNALS AS THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z TTU-WRF BOTH DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE. GFS NOT SHOWING SIMILAR QPF
BUT IS SHOWING SIMILAR SUPPORT ONCE BEGIN TO LOOK AT MID LEVELS.
MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTING SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTENING AS LARGE
MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN LIFTING FROM ABOUT 750 MB BUT ALSO SHOWING ABOUT 100
J/KG OF CIN. HOWEVER...LIFT FROM MODEST MID LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC
MECHANISM AND PAIR OF JET STREAKS /ONE ACROSS CNTL PLAINS AND THE
OTHER ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/ MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE
ENERGY WITH SCATTERED TSRA LOOKING POSSIBLE. WILL GO AHEAD AND FOCUS
ON THAT AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WHILE PRE-06Z PERIOD
WILL FOCUS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WRN AND SERN AREAS.
WHETHER THE SRN PANHANDLE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN BE SUSTAINED INTO THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD AS THE NAM SUGGEST WILL BE
KEY IN CONVECTIVE FCST FOR TUESDAY AFTN. OBVIOUSLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WOULD INITIALLY WEAKEN CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING PEAK CONVECTIVE HOURS TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...FOCUS FOR INITIATION LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
FARTHER WEST IN A ZONE OF GENERALLY NW-SE ORIENTED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT LIFTS NWD TUESDAY AFTN. FCST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG
IN MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2500-PLUS IN A
BAND NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW
RUNNING THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT A RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS THE EAST MAY NOT
WORK OUT IF AFOREMENTIONED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE. WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EWD DURING THE EVENING AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS INTO THE NRN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT ROLLING IN FROM THE NW.
LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
AREA RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE AREA IS ONE
POSITIVE FACTOR. THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST OVER NEW
MEXICO FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IS MOSTLY TIED TO DRYLINE ACTIVITY BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 81 63 87 64 / 20 40 40 30 30
TULIA 62 80 64 87 64 / 40 40 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 63 80 65 88 65 / 30 40 40 30 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 65 91 67 / 20 40 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 65 84 66 90 68 / 30 40 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 65 91 65 92 68 / 20 40 40 30 30
BROWNFIELD 66 90 68 91 68 / 20 40 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 66 85 67 88 68 / 40 50 50 20 20
SPUR 68 85 68 90 68 / 30 40 50 20 20
ASPERMONT 70 89 70 92 71 / 30 40 50 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
AT 3 PM...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LAPS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG 800-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE LATEST RAP CONTINUES
TO SHOW THAT THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE BAND OF SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR...EAST ARW...AND EAST NMM.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 13.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG
925 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS REGION. ALL OF THE MESO MODELS AND BROADER SCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE WEST OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO
DIAMOND LAKE WISCONSIN LINE.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT
THERE WILL INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
NORTHERN WESTERN WISCONSIN AS A STRONG WAVE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BULK SHEARS CLIMB ABOVE 40 KNOTS ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES.
THE NAM/WRF WOULD SUGGEST EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS MAY BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND IT WOULD INCLUDE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THE SHEAR IS GOOD...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THAT DEW POINTS IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND IF THIS IS TRUE THAN THE CAPES MAY BE TOO HIGH TOO.
THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EVOLVE INTO A WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOLS COALESCE.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THIS...THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE BULK SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AHEAD OF
IT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT
THE AREA MAY BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION. DUE TO THIS THE ALL BLEND POPS WERE REDUCED SOME.
LOOKING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. HOWEVER
LOOKING WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MOVING FROM PHASE 6 TO
7...THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
631 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
MINNESOTA...BUT THESE WERE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE MOVED EAST
DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE IN
THE DAY. DID MENTION VCTS AT KRST AFTER 20Z FOR THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT KEPT KLSE DRY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAY BE A BIT CLOUDIER NORTH OF MADISON THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A GREAT
AFTEROON AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS CURRENTLY PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER COOLER AIR ALOFT. CIGS MAY BREIFLY DROP
TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING INCREASING
MIXING TO RAISE CEILINGS TO VFR. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MAIN ISSUES TODAY ARE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT IR AND FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MOST OF THE
STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THERE IS A POCKET
OF SC FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX ON WATER
VAPOR LOOPS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS NAM AND RAP 925-850MB
RH FORECASTS INDICATE 60 PCT OR MORE CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND BOTH HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE...THOUGH
SHALLOW...AROUND 4-5K FT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A BROKEN DECK.
HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS ON THOSE SOUNDINGS APPEAR A BIT HIGH...SO
WILL HOLD SKY COVER IN THE 40 PCT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAVE
PARTLY CLOUDY
850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR ON ALL MODELS...THOUGH
00Z ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 4C WARMER. WILL TREND TOWARD THE
COOLER BLENDED TEMPS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOWER 70S
SOUTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CROSSES STATE
WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S EXPECTED EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE REMAINS WEST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
THE LEADING EDGE OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY MORNING. THE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER THAN INLAND
AREAS. 925MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE...UP TO AROUND 20C IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY THU AFTERNOON...YIELDING MAX TEMPS AROUND 80.
DEWPOINT TEMPS SEEM CHARACTERISTICALLY OVERDONE BY THE MODELS GIVEN
THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE WAA...SO WENT WITH
THE BIAS-CORRECTED LOWER VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WI WED
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TOO DRY AND NOT
ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL FORCING FOR ANY PRECIP.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST SHOWS A REX
BLOCK RETROGRADING INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHEAST WI ON THE DRY SIDE OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS
PERIOD...LEADING TO THE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND DROPPING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ALREADY ON TUE. THE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER /HPC/ FAVORS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL BLEND.
THIS WOULD KEEP SOUTHERN WI GENERALLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIKELY
BEYOND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MORNING MIXING WILL
BRING MORE CONSISTENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...EASING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER
STATE. EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS TODAY...THOUGH BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BROKEN 4-5K FT DECK TO
PASS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED UP TO ISSUANCE TIME. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
MAY BRING SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION.
BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY REDUCING FOG WILL BE IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MAIN ISSUES TODAY ARE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT IR AND FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MOST OF THE
STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THERE IS A POCKET
OF SC FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX ON WATER
VAPOR LOOPS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS NAM AND RAP 925-850MB
RH FORECASTS INDICATE 60 PCT OR MORE CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND BOTH HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE...THOUGH
SHALLOW...AROUND 4-5K FT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A BROKEN DECK.
HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS ON THOSE SOUNDINGS APPEAR A BIT HIGH...SO
WILL HOLD SKY COVER IN THE 40 PCT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAVE
PARTLY CLOUDY
850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR ON ALL MODELS...THOUGH
00Z ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 4C WARMER. WILL TREND TOWARD THE
COOLER BLENDED TEMPS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOWER 70S
SOUTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CROSSES STATE
WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S EXPECTED EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE REMAINS WEST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
THE LEADING EDGE OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY MORNING. THE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER THAN INLAND
AREAS. 925MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE...UP TO AROUND 20C IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY THU AFTERNOON...YIELDING MAX TEMPS AROUND 80.
DEWPOINT TEMPS SEEM CHARACTERISTICALLY OVERDONE BY THE MODELS GIVEN
THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE WAA...SO WENT WITH
THE BIAS-CORRECTED LOWER VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WI WED
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TOO DRY AND NOT
ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL FORCING FOR ANY PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST SHOWS A REX
BLOCK RETROGRADING INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHEAST WI ON THE DRY SIDE OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS
PERIOD...LEADING TO THE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND DROPPING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ALREADY ON TUE. THE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER /HPC/ FAVORS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL BLEND.
THIS WOULD KEEP SOUTHERN WI GENERALLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIKELY
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MORNING MIXING WILL
BRING MORE CONSISTENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...EASING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER
STATE. EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS TODAY...THOUGH BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BROKEN 4-5K FT DECK TO
PASS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED UP TO ISSUANCE TIME. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
MAY BRING SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION.
BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY REDUCING FOG WILL BE IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1113 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AND
RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WIND SHIFT/DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE SHOWERS FORMING OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 11.15Z RUN CONTINUES THIS TREND
SHOWING THEM MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE SHOWERS AND BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...SO NO PLANS TO CARRY ANY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
AFTER THAT...IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH COOL AIR SETTLES IN OVER
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BOTH THE 11.12Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE 925 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN TO 5-7C TONIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO REBOUND TO AROUND 10C TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 50 TONIGHT AS A
NORTHWEST BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
THEM FROM GOING ANY LOWER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL
BE TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. EXPECTING
LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S WITH THE FAVORED COOLER SPOTS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE INTO THIS WAVE...BUT
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAKER BRANCH SPLITTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST UNDER UNDER THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH
1-2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND WHILE
THE FORCING IS NOT THAT STRONG FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A
20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THE 11.12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH AN EVEN FLATTER AND
FARTHER EAST RIDGE AXIS WHICH ALLOWS A SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND 11.12Z GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH DEFLECTS THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE KNOWN TO STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IN THE SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS
CONFIDENCE TO PULL THEM OUT IS JUST NOT THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1113 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK VFR FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS HAVE STAYED UP
AROUND 20KTS AT LSE WHERE SOME CHANNELING OF THE WIND MAY BE
OCCURRING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AT RST...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT ARE STILL GUSTING...SO AM NOT SOLD
THAT THEIR WINDS WILL STAY DOWN OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COLD SURFACE AIR SITTING OVER THE
WARM MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WOULD COME
SOMETIME AFTER 6Z...IF AT ALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WHICH DIMINISHED AROUND 04Z, SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AND WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE
INLAND AND AT LEAST ONE SUBTLE VORT MAX APPROACHES, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND AS EARLY AS 15Z, WHILE AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA, THE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN MOISTURE, HEALTHIER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. WE
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 20-30 POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN DURING THIS PERIOD,
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME ALSO AFFECTING THE EAST COAST, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL KEEP ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY START SURGING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE 5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPING...AND FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO INCLUDED VCTS EAST
COAST TERMINALS 18-00Z. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 87 74 / 40 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 30 30
MIAMI 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 73 / 20 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
319 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
...UPDATED THE LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
A BROAD WEAK, ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WA IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS OCCURRING AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTED HIGHER CONTENT MOISTURE AIR FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES. FARTHER WEST, A DRYLINE WAS
EVIDENT IN THE MESONET POINT DATA ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AS WELL
AS IN A FINE LINE DEVELOPING ON KPUX RADAR FROM LAMAR, CO
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
VERY DIFFERENTLY AND THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE 12UTC NAM MODEL WOULD INDICATE AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE MUCH HIGHER CAPE/INSTABILITY
AXIS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. AT HIS TIME, THIS NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE MORE
LIKELY THAN OTHERS BASED ON THE WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT WE ARE
DEALING WITH. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE RECENT
ARW-WRF/NMM RUNS AND HRRR THAT HAVE ELUDED TO CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A COLD POOL AND
SPREADING RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN SEVERAL TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. IF THAT DOES OCCUR, THE MOST PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME WOULD
SEEM TO BE MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKER CONVECTION COULD SPREAD FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE JUST AS GOOD OR BETTER ALONG A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD UNDERGO FRONTOGENESIS FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE BE WEAK FORCING,
BUT PERHAPS MORE MODERATE CAPE VALUES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR, WESTWARD TO SCOTT CITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE NAM MODEL
IS INDICATING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHILST
MOST OTHER NUMERICAL OUTPUT IS INDICATING LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS A VERY CHALLENGING ONE
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...EACH OF WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON THE FOLLOWING
MCS IN TERMS OF LOCATION, TIMING, AND IMPACTS. WE ARE NOW IN THE
PEAK OF MCS SEASON ON THE GREAT PLAINS...SO THIS REALLY COMES AS NO
SHOCK TO THIS FORECASTER. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ONLY
ADDING TO THE ALREADY PLENTIFUL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE
WESTERN KANSAS REGION WILL REMAIN IN THIS PERTURBED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN (ALBEIT QUITE
WEAK) AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PUSHING DOWN INTO
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WILL MORE OR LESS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY (WITH ACTUALLY A
REINFORCING WEAK FRONT SATURDAY).
THE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF,
GFS, AND NAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MCS`S TO AFFECT
PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THIS FLOW REGIME
REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT
BE THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EACH DAY LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AND LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING BY LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT POLAR JET AFFECTS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP SURFACE LOW/LEE
TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A HOT 850-700MB
LAYER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NEW MEXICO PLATEAU WHICH
WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE POP FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS WE HEAD TO MID-WEEK...ONE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO REACH WESTERN KANSAS
AGAIN PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE WE HAVE SOME 20 POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
BETTER CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS
POINT...BUT THIS IS 7 DAYS OUT SO IT IS NOT ALL THAT WISE TO GET TOO
DETAILED ABOUT THIS. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH SHOULD BE
MONDAY WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 283).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE. NONETHELESS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS ENOUGH AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST TO
WARRENT INCLUSION IN THE HYS TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
PROBABILITY OF THESE STORMS BEING WITHIN 5 NM OF DDC AND GCK IS
TOO LOW TO INSERT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 65 90 71 / 20 30 20 30
GCK 95 65 91 69 / 30 40 20 30
EHA 95 65 91 67 / 30 40 20 30
LBL 95 67 93 70 / 20 30 20 30
HYS 95 66 87 72 / 30 60 20 30
P28 95 70 89 73 / 10 30 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
111 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
A BROAD WEAK, ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WA IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS OCCURRING AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTED HIGHER CONTENT MOISTURE AIR FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES. FARTHER WEST, A DRYLINE WAS
EVIDENT IN THE MESONET POINT DATA ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AS WELL
AS IN A FINE LINE DEVELOPING ON KPUX RADAR FROM LAMAR, CO
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
VERY DIFFERENTLY AND THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE 12UTC NAM MODEL WOULD INDICATE AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE MUCH HIGHER CAPE/INSTABILITY
AXIS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. AT HIS TIME, THIS NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE MORE
LIKELY THAN OTHERS BASED ON THE WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT WE ARE
DEALING WITH. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE RECENT
ARW-WRF/NMM RUNS AND HRRR THAT HAVE ELUDED TO CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A COLD POOL AND
SPREADING RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN SEVERAL TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. IF THAT DOES OCCUR, THE MOST PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME WOULD
SEEM TO BE MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKER CONVECTION COULD SPREAD FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE JUST AS GOOD OR BETTER ALONG A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD UNDERGO FRONTOGENESIS FROM WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE BE WEAK FORCING,
BUT PERHAPS MORE MODERATE CAPE VALUES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR, WESTWARD TO SCOTT CITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE NAM MODEL
IS INDICATING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHILST
MOST OTHER NUMERICAL OUTPUT IS INDICATING LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL SEE ONE UPPER SHORT WAVE
EXITING THE WESTERN PLAINS OF KANSAS, BRINGING ABOUT A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD, EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY, THE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT, AND ONLY IN TREGO,
ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT QPF FROM 0.60
TO 0.80-INCH IN OUR NORTHWEST FROM HAYS TO SCOTT CITY, BUT HAVE A
HARD TIME BUYING THAT MUCH PERCEPTIBLE WATER WILL FALL OUT, BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS. TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT QPF TO AROUND 0.25 TO
0.30-INCH. AS THAT SHORT WAVE EXITS, ANOTHER SMALL SCALE WAVE IS
EJECTED FROM THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS SECOND WAVE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE FIRST, AND WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THAT AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON
CITY TO LA CROSSE. THE UPPER BAJA LOW CUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT PER
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, AND AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
TEXAS. FOR NOW, PLAN TO KEEP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FREE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT OUR EXTREME EAST WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVERHEAD, AND
A DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL BE EVOLVING. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE,
SUCH AS SOUTHEAST OF LINE FORM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE CR-EXTENDED BLEND PROCEDURE PLACED 30 POPS IN
MY EXTREME THREE EASTERN COUNTIES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER
WEDNESDAY, OR DAY 7. KNOCKED THOSE POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT, AS THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT WAVE COULD BE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
AROUND THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY HOT DURING THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
(SE, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTIES), WITH PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING THE COOLEST MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SCOTT CITY TO 70 DEGREES IN MEDICINE LODGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 90S NORTH OF I-70 AND RANGE TO
THE MID 90S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. BY SUNDAY, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, THEN WARM TO PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE ELKHART AREA
BEING NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT (BEST GUESS), AND KNOCK HIGHS DOWN A NOTCH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE. NONETHELESS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS ENOUGH AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST TO
WARRENT INCLUSION IN THE HYS TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
PROBABILITY OF THESE STORMS BEING WITHIN 5 NM OF DDC AND GCK IS
TOO LOW TO INSERT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 93 71 95 / 30 20 20 10
GCK 65 93 69 95 / 40 20 20 20
EHA 65 91 66 92 / 40 20 20 10
LBL 67 93 68 94 / 30 20 20 10
HYS 66 90 72 95 / 40 20 30 30
P28 70 94 73 94 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
407 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ADVERTISING FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED
WITH A TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND RIDGE AMPLIFYING EAST.
SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAST FLOW WESTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER STATES. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PUSH PRECIP
WATER VALUES GREATER THAT 1.5"/KI AROUND 40...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MUCAPES CATAPULT TO 4500 J/KG. LATEST HIRES RAP AND NMM ARE
ADVERTISING ACTIVITY ERUPTING AROUND 18Z ON EDGE OF WEAK CAP...JUST
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE ALONG WELL DEFINE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE WELL INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY FOR THIS SO NO NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THAT SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES
AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AT START OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THROUGH 09Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z
AS MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH EASTERN NEBRASKA.
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DF
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
329 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS...HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH APPEARS TO DEEPEN
SOME...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE WESTERN PANHANDLE CAN BE SEEN WITH A WIND
SHIFT IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO ON RADAR WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING OFF THE BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MAIN PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF THE PLAINS. WITH THE FRONT BEING
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM...THE MODELS TRY TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS MORE MOIST AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. INITIAL
THINKING IS MORE LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION...IN WHICH SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
UNZIPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. BY 18Z...INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE QUITE HIGH WITH NEARLY 2500 TO 4000 J/KG EXPECTED DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS MINIMAL AT BEST...BUT COULD SEE
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THREAT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AGAIN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE MAIN THINKING IS THAT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID...WITH A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AND SLIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD...AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINATION IS ALSO IN THE WORKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT HOWEVER...WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID...SATURDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INSTABILITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR 2500 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. ALSO...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT NEAR 30 KTS.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DECIDED TO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND EACH
OF THEM HAVE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT A
BOUNDARY THOUGH THEY SHOULD HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH ARE. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND IT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. STILL HAVE SOME CIRRUS AROUND FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN TO THE EAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
149 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRONGLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING A
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND OF SC. LATEST RUC HRLY
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES YET ADDITIONAL WEAK SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SFC WIND FIELD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BY
2 AM THE LATEST...AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS
ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND TIL THIS BOUNDARIES DEPARTURE. DRIER AIR IE.
LOWER DEWPOINTS...WILL BE A TAD SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ILM
CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT MINS
AND HRLY DEWPOINTS UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...
TO ACCOMMODATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHILE OFFSHORE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY DAY AND PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES MORE BY NIGHT...THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 50S
WELL INLAND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NE TO MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF KILM AND KLBT AS OF 04Z AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. A LINE
OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
INCLUDE VCSH FOR KMYR AND KCRE TIL 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE AS A N WIND BRINGS INCREASINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AFTER SUNRISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL CAUSE N TO NE WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVELS
ENOUGH THAT LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS COULD DROP AT
TIMES TO MVFR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL BECOME DOMINATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY 5 TO 10 KT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT DURING THE THU PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS A RESULT OF THE FRONT MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AS DECENT RIDGING
FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER SE CANADA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. SPEEDS
COULD REACH AROUND 15 KT BY DAYBREAK FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS. OVERNIGHT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THE MORE DOMINANT PLAYER WITH REGARD TO SIG SEAS...
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION
COULD AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET EARLY
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF THU.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AS THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION
AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE DRIER AIR THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL NE FLOW TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. IN THIS COAST- PARALLEL
FLOW THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT FROM THE
COAST TO THE 20NM FORECAST ZONE BORDER...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME 6 FT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT EASE IN THE
GRADIENT TRANSLATING TO AN APPROXIMATE 5KT DROP IN SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FOR SUNDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADVISORIES BUT SCEC HEADLINES
ARE TOUGH TO RULE OUT EARLY ON. AN EASTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER RESULTING IN A MORE
PRONOUNCED ABATING OF THE SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TRIM POPS ACROSS ALL BUT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STORMS COMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN HAVING TROUBLE AND WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTH.
MAIN AREA OF STORMS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING SOUTH AND EAST OF
LUBBOCK...AND LATEST RUN OF HRRR DOES KEEP DEVELOPING STORMS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE CHC POPS GOING THERE. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA IF STORMS CAN GET
GOING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 89 70 92 / 20 20 20 20
HOBART OK 67 90 69 92 / 30 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 92 73 96 / 40 20 20 10
GAGE OK 68 88 70 90 / 20 30 40 20
PONCA CITY OK 69 88 70 92 / 10 20 10 30
DURANT OK 70 89 71 93 / 40 30 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KJCT AND KBBD AS SE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF. CIGS SCATTERING OUT MID MORNING. STRATUS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KSJT KABI AND KSOA. SOUTH WINDS GUST TO 25
KTS AT KSJT AND KABI MID MORNING LEE THROUGH STRENGTHENS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS SCARCE...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE TRANSPECOS TRYING TO CROSS THE PECOS RIVER IN WESTERN
CROCKETT COUNTY. WHILE CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS REMOTE TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CAP...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS GFS
AND NAM MODELS WERE INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 10
PM.
04
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WATCHING A FEW
TSTMS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WE HAD ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION EARLY TODAY BUT THIS HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE CWA LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING MCV ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE...YET
DISCERNIBLE...BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA PER THE
KSJT WSR-88D BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS BENIGN AT THIS TIME. LOOKING
WEST...MID LEVEL RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPS
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...I ANTICIPATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERAL VERSIONS OF THE HIRES WRF
AND THE HRRR ALL AGREE IN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES.
A LOOK AT THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE DEPICTS SBCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50
KTS. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WILL GIVE WAY.
THUS...WE DO HAVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT I AM
PLAYING THIS RATHER CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW THINKING THAT THE CAP
WILL HOLD FOR THE MOST PART AND ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS...I AM ONLY
CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 00Z. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S /BUT WILL LIKELY BE LOWER IF
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP/.
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
JOHNSON
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL BE ENVELOPED BY
ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AS WELL
WHILE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN UNDERNEATH RIDGING.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE NOT EXPANDED ANY OF THE
INHERITED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO DIRECTLY INFLUENCE US...AND THAT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GET GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST TEXAS AREA...THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO OUR WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW BACK OUT TO THE PACIFIC...AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOWERED TEMPERATURES...AND THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO TRY
TO SHOW SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY WX AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 72 93 72 94 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 73 98 73 98 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 74 98 73 94 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN WEAKEN BY LATE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z THURSDAY WHICH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE...AND
ALSO THE DALHART TAF SITE...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN OR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
00Z FRIDAY. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THE CONVECTION WITH THIS TAF
FORECAST PACKAGE...HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
UPDATE...
THE 00Z KAMA /AND KDDC/ SOUNDINGS SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 700MB IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
INDICATED BY LAPS DATA. THIS CAPPING ALONG WITH A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAS KEPT THE CWA CONVECTION FREE SO FAR THIS
EVENING. CU THAT TRIED TO GROW ALONG A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT AXIS EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE HAS RECENTLY
DISSIPATED WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT
STRENGTHENING CIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WHILE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN KS HAS DISSIPATED.
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WEAK
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO WORK IN FROM
NM/FAR SOUTHERN CO OR FOR NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
MAY WORK IN FROM THE WEST...WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND CAPPING IN PLACE WILL KEEP
ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THAT THE
MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TOUGH EVEN FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE LLJ PRESENCE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NM...AND SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION SLOWLY WORKING THIS WAY...BUT KEEP THEM ON THE
LOW SIDE DUE TO ANTICIPATED WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING CONCERNS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP...THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY
TO TAP INTO ABOVE IT /MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF
STORMS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STRONG WINDS.
VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL GIVING VERY MIXED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM VIRTUALLY NO ACTIVITY
INDICATED BY THE HRRR TO A SOLID LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OUN
WRF. AM SIDING WITH THE MUCH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES DUE TO THE
REASONS STATED ABOVE. ALSO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL PRESENCE TO AID IN MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT GIVEN
VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SO TO SUMMARIZE...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL. HOWEVER IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
UPPER TROUGH AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WOULD
BE THE TAF SITE WHICH COULD BE AFFECTED LATER TONIGHT BY ANY
CONVECTION. WILL HOLD OFF NOW MENTIONING IN THE TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED THE HEATING WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO BE FOR THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING...STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE NAM AND RAP...SHOW LARGE CAPE VALUES...1500
TO 3000 J/KG...AND MODEST SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SAW CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE
RAP WERE SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR KAMA...HOWEVER...EXPECT
THAT THIS WAS OVER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ALONG THE NOW RATHER
POORLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH. SO EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STORMS MOVING IN FROM NM.
TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...WITH THE GFS EVEN SHOWING THE DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES. WITH THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY SO FAR WEST...NOT
CERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THIS FAR EAST. WHEREVER IT
STALLS...IT SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. WITH EVEN WEAKER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW
TOMORROW...STORMS MAY NOT PROPAGATE VERY FAR FROM THE DRYLINE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA...EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THEN...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
TROUGH SLOWLY RETROGRESSING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH BUILDS IN
OVER TX...AND THEN RETROGRESSES ITSELF. WHAT MAKES THIS PATTERN
UNUSUAL IS THAT AT THE SAME TIME...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
SLOW...BUT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS OF
MODELS...WHICH SHOWED THE BROAD TROUGH STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT NE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE NEW SOLUTION...THERE ARE RATHER LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.
TUESDAY...IN ANOTHER STARK CONTRAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE
IS NO HINT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS IT IS DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR TO GET
STRONG COLD FRONTS THIS FAR SOUTH WITH OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
LOW OR TROUGH.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS TOMORROW...WHEN A WEAK
DRYLINE COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...RESULTING
IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
412 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS..LOW-AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE ACRS THE NRN
TIER OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA...WITH MEAN TROF POSN OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND RIDGE POSN IN THE E. THAT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A
FEW DAYS...THEN THE WESTERLIES WL STRENGTHEN AND LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION WL OCCUR. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE SHOULD BE A
BROAD BUT FAIRLY STG UPR TROF CENTERED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES OR NRN
PLAINS...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THOUGH DAILY TEMPS WL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS...TEMPS WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND IF THE MEAN TROF AXIS EDGES E AS NOW
INDICATED. THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN THAN WHAT
WE/VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. OF COURSE...ACTUAL PCPN
AMNTS WL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT
REMAIN UNKNOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/FRI. ISSUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO SPILL OVER INTO THE FCST AREA ARISE EARLY AND THEN
CONT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TSTM COMPLEX
OVER ERN ND/NERN SD. IT/S BEING FED BY INSTABILITY AXIS STILL WELL
W OF THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE COMPLEX NE AND
WEAKENS IT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH THE RUC BRINGS IT E THEN TURNS
IT DUE S ACRS MN...DIRECTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ON LOCAL MESO PLOTS OVER SRN MN...AND
RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO FIT THE RUC. GET THE FEELING THIS IS GOING TO
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE IT/S A WASTE OF TIME TRYING TO
TRY AND TRACK THE FEATURE USING THE GUIDANCE AND SIMPLY KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AND USING EXTRAPOLATION IS GOING TO
WORK BETTER. AS SUCH...NEED TO KEEP POPS OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA TDA...AND PROBABLY CAN/T BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING AS
ONGOING STORMS COULD GET THERE BEFORE NOON IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
OVERALL TREND HOWEVER HAS TO BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THEY GET FARTHER E...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPEMENT
FARTHER E TO BE GREATLY LIMITED BY INFLUX OF DRY AIR CIRCULATION
BACK OUT OF DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SHRA/TSRA WL
GRADUALLY START TO EDGE E AS COLD FRONT TRAILING FM CYCLONE LIFTG
TOWARD HUDSON BAY WORKS TOWARD THE RGN. BUT THE FRONT WL START TO
SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS TO THE FCST AREA AS IT/S PARENT CYCLONE
PULLS OFF TO THE NE. DRY AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WL CONT TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO ERN WI. MAIN FCST CHG WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO
TRIM POPS OVER THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE E-C WI WL STAY DRY THROUGH FRI...WAS NOT COMFORTABLE
TOTALLY PULLING POPS OUT FOR MOST OF THAT AREA. SO BACKED DOWN FM
WHAT WE HAD GOING...AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REMOVE IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE.
WARMER AIR WL BE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SLY WINDS. THE BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WAS VERY WARM OVER E-C WI ON FRI...PROBABLY
DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN. IT/S A TRICKY FCST...BECAUSE IF THERE ARE
MORE CLDS WE WON/T WARM AS MUCH. STILL...TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
FCST SUGGESTED THE NEED TO GO WITH THE WARMER MAXES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW WITH CHALLENGING EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO MAKE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS MODEL CONCENSUS INDICATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES...IN INITIALLY
BAGGY WESTERN US TROUGH...WILL TRY AND RIDE UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF STUBBORN MEAN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS DIFFER ON
EVOLUTION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. INHERITED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY OF THE EXTENDED AND SEE NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL RUNS TO JUSTIFY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
LATEST GEM DID SUGGEST THAT POSSIBLE MCS COMING OUT OF IOWA
FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD NOT GET INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND WOULD AT BEST CLIP OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE OPER GFS WAS MUCH QUICKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTED THERE COULD BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DID
TRIM BACK POPS SOME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT REMAINED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO LOWERED POPS SOME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A BREAK IN PRECIPTATION BEHIND INITIAL DISTURBANCE. WILL LET
LATER FORECAST SHIFTS TRY AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE RESOLUTION WITH
LATER MODEL FORECASTS.
PRETTY MUCH LEFT REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS INHERITED AND RETAINED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RATHER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS AS TOO
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA
ATTM...WITH JUST PASSING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLDS. AT THIS POINT DON/T
PLAN TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AS BEST
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED W OF THE AREA. BUT WL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AND MAKE FINAL DECISION AT ISSUANCE TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SKOWRONSKI/ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN
SD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW
WAS GENERATING AN MCS THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS IA.
SHRA/TS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THIS WAVE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE ND MCS. OTHERWISE...CLOSER TO HOME...A
FEW MID-CLOUD AND ANVIL DEBRIS CLOUD FROM OLD IA CONVECTION DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S.
WILL BE KEEPING CLOSE TRACK OF THE MCS THIS MORNING...WATCHING ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING THE MID-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH FROM MT INTO NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS TAKES
NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHEAST WITH IT...SO EXPECTING THE MCS
TO SCOOT NORTHEAST AS WELL INTO NORTHERN MN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR SOME ACCAS
GENERATION AND ISOLATED SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A MEDFORD/ARCADIA/ROCHESTER/AUSTIN LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
LIKELY KEEP AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT
ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO CENTRAL MN AS 0-3 MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 3000J/KG AND MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG
RANGE. AMPLE SHEAR ALSO PRESENT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. SO...THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR THIS LINE TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE COLD FRONT/LINE
OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A WEAKENING TREND AS CAPE
DIMINISHES AND BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SKIRTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN MN.
MAINTAINED MID-RANGE SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTERACTING WITH DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING CLOSELY AS MODELS SHOW A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. SURPRISINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ONLY PRODUCE
AROUND 500-600J/KG 0-3KM MLCAPE AND THIS COULD BE TIED INTO CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER IF MORE HEATING IS REALIZED...THERE COULD BE BE A
SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DECENT BULK
SHEAR.
FOR SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
REST OF THE PERIOD MARKED BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE/HIGH ZONAL FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS MID-RANGE SHRA/THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY EDGES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST. IN ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO NEAR 22 KNOTS AT KLSE AND 28 KNOTS AT KRST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES WILL COME AFTER 02Z AT KLSE AND 20Z AT KRST. IF THIS
CONVECTION DOES IMPACT THE TAF SITES...SOME CEILINGS COULD DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
AT 3 PM...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LAPS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG 800-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE LATEST RAP CONTINUES
TO SHOW THAT THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE BAND OF SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR...EAST ARW...AND EAST NMM.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 13.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG
925 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS REGION. ALL OF THE MESO MODELS AND BROADER SCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE WEST OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO
DIAMOND LAKE WISCONSIN LINE.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT
THERE WILL INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
NORTHERN WESTERN WISCONSIN AS A STRONG WAVE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BULK SHEARS CLIMB ABOVE 40 KNOTS ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES.
THE NAM/WRF WOULD SUGGEST EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS MAY BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND IT WOULD INCLUDE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THE SHEAR IS GOOD...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THAT DEW POINTS IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND IF THIS IS TRUE THAN THE CAPES MAY BE TOO HIGH TOO.
THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EVOLVE INTO A WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOLS COALESCE.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THIS...THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE BULK SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AHEAD OF
IT.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT
THE AREA MAY BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION. DUE TO THIS THE ALL BLEND POPS WERE REDUCED SOME.
LOOKING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. HOWEVER
LOOKING WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MOVING FROM PHASE 6 TO
7...THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY EDGES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST. IN ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO NEAR 22 KNOTS AT KLSE AND 28 KNOTS AT KRST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES WILL COME AFTER 02Z AT KLSE AND 20Z AT KRST. IF THIS
CONVECTION DOES IMPACT THE TAF SITES...SOME CEILINGS COULD DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE HAD INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEGIN WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF BOTH SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
PUSH EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SO
BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA DEVELOPING...AND
FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO MAINTAINED VCTS EAST COAST TERMINALS
18-00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WHICH DIMINISHED AROUND 04Z, SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AND WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE
INLAND AND AT LEAST ONE SUBTLE VORT MAX APPROACHES, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND AS EARLY AS 15Z, WHILE AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA, THE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN MOISTURE, HEALTHIER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. WE
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 20-30 POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN DURING THIS PERIOD,
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME ALSO AFFECTING THE EAST COAST, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL KEEP ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY START SURGING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE 5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPING...AND FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO INCLUDED VCTS EAST
COAST TERMINALS 18-00Z. /GREGORIA
MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 87 74 / 40 40 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 30 30
MIAMI 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 73 / 20 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
722 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA DEVELOPING...AND
FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO MAINTAINED VCTS EAST COAST TERMINALS
18-00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION OVER PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WHICH DIMINISHED AROUND 04Z, SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
THE DAY WILL BEGIN TRANQUIL AND WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE
INLAND AND AT LEAST ONE SUBTLE VORT MAX APPROACHES, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND AS EARLY AS 15Z, WHILE AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA, THE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN MOISTURE, HEALTHIER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. WE
WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 20-30 POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN DURING THIS PERIOD,
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME ALSO AFFECTING THE EAST COAST, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL KEEP ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY START SURGING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE 5-10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISD-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPING...AND FOCUSED INTERIOR/EAST SO INCLUDED VCTS EAST
COAST TERMINALS 18-00Z. /GREGORIA
MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 87 74 / 40 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 30 30
MIAMI 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 30 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 73 / 20 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
KGRI TERMINAL AREA. ALONG THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS...HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH APPEARS TO DEEPEN
SOME...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE WESTERN PANHANDLE CAN BE SEEN WITH A WIND
SHIFT IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO ON RADAR WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PUSHING OFF THE BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MAIN PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF THE PLAINS. WITH THE FRONT BEING
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM...THE MODELS TRY TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS MORE MOIST AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. INITIAL
THINKING IS MORE LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION...IN WHICH SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
UNZIPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. BY 18Z...INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE QUITE HIGH WITH NEARLY 2500 TO 4000 J/KG EXPECTED DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS MINIMAL AT BEST...BUT COULD SEE
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THREAT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AGAIN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE MAIN THINKING IS THAT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID...WITH A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AND SLIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD...AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINATION IS ALSO IN THE WORKS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT HOWEVER...WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID...SATURDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INSTABILITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR 2500 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. ALSO...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT NEAR 30 KTS.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DECIDED TO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND EACH
OF THEM HAVE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT A
BOUNDARY THOUGH THEY SHOULD HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH ARE. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND IT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
AROUND 70.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
609 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND THEN EVENTUALLY STALLS. UNTIL STORMS
ARRIVE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 14-17ZKTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
24-27KTS. FIRST STORMS MAY IMPACT KOFK AS SOON AS ABOUT 17Z WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED FROM 19-23Z. FIRST STORM THREAT AT
KOMA/KLNK BY ABOUT 21Z...THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ADVERTISING FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED
WITH A TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND RIDGE AMPLIFYING EAST.
SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAST FLOW WESTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER STATES. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PUSH PRECIP
WATER VALUES GREATER THAT 1.5"/KI AROUND 40...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MUCAPES CATAPULT TO 4500 J/KG. LATEST HIRES RAP AND NMM ARE
ADVERTISING ACTIVITY ERUPTING AROUND 18Z ON EDGE OF WEAK CAP...JUST
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE ALONG WELL DEFINE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE WELL INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY FOR THIS SO NO NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THAT SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES
AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
847 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERAL
DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...
FCST WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TEMP DEWPOINT TRENDS. REGIONAL VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG QUICKLY BURNING
OFF WITH JUST SOME HIGH CI MOVING OVERHEAD. EXPECT CI TO CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING ALL IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL ENSURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S REGION WIDE. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
PER THE CURRENT AVIATION DISCUSSION, WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MUCH
FOG THIS MORNING. THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
TO OVERCOME THE DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION INSIDE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SPOTTY LIGHT FOG WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF I-81 IN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BATTLING SOME LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION EARLY
TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING MAXES ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE, AS
MIX DOWN TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN MOS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING AS MIXING WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, AND DRY ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED. FORECASTING PATCHY FOG
MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL
ONLY EDGE UP SLIGHTLY. DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN
WILL HELP DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A LITTLE WRINKLE HAS SHOWN UP IN THE 00Z GFS RUN...IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT QPF IN THE WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH OR
SO AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE...NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE RAIN FREE...YET
THE NAM ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF A WAVE DROPPING DOWN
SOUTHWARD ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AS CAN BE SEEN
VIA 500MB VORTICITY FIELD. MAJORITY OF MODELS AND ALL MOS NUMBERS
SUGGEST KEEPING THINGS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WITH FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST CAUSE ENTRAINMENT ANY THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...A SINGLE GFS RUN COMPARED TO
OTHER RUNS AND MODELS IS NOT ENOUGH FOR ME TO PLACE ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A MORE GRADUAL PACE ON SETTING UP OF THE
WARM RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SWOON
ABOVE NORMAL...IT WILL JUST TAKE LONGER FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
FOLD OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY...BACKING OFF
SLIGHTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
EXPECTING WARMEST TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR
90 CURRENTLY FIGURED FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A VERY QUIET
AND WARM PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS
THIS OCCURS...DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE DEFECTED NORTH OF THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...850 MB
TEMPS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20C BY TUE...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEWLY ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS RIDGING
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED
WITH MAINTAINING MAINLY A DRY FCST PENDING ADDITIONAL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG DEVELOPED BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z THIS MORNING, AND HAS BROUGHT
THE ELM TERMINAL INTO LIFR TERRITORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BEEN AT ALL HELPFUL, AS THE RUC SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
FAILED TO FORECAST THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR CASES IN THE PAST GENERALLY SAW FOG LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z, AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING THIS MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS FORECAST TONIGHT, AS
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR BUT WITH LESS MIXING WINDS
TO CONTEND WITH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG...MAINLY AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG/MDP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERAL
DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER THE CURRENT AVIATION DISCUSSION, WE ARE NOT FORECASTING MUCH
FOG THIS MORNING. THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
TO OVERCOME THE DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION INSIDE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SPOTTY LIGHT FOG WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF I-81 IN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BATTLING SOME LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION EARLY
TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING MAXES ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE, AS
MIX DOWN TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN MOS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING AS MIXING WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, AND DRY ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED. FORECASTING PATCHY FOG
MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND MIDATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL
ONLY EDGE UP SLIGHTLY. DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN
WILL HELP DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A LITTLE WRINKLE HAS SHOWN UP IN THE 00Z GFS RUN...IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT QPF IN THE WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH OR
SO AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE...NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE RAIN FREE...YET
THE NAM ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF A WAVE DROPPING DOWN
SOUTHWARD ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AS CAN BE SEEN
VIA 500MB VORTICITY FIELD. MAJORITY OF MODELS AND ALL MOS NUMBERS
SUGGEST KEEPING THINGS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WITH FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST CAUSE ENTRAINMENT ANY THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...A SINGLE GFS RUN COMPARED TO
OTHER RUNS AND MODELS IS NOT ENOUGH FOR ME TO PLACE ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A MORE GRADUAL PACE ON SETTING UP OF THE
WARM RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SWOON
ABOVE NORMAL...IT WILL JUST TAKE LONGER FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
FOLD OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY...BACKING OFF
SLIGHTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
EXPECTING WARMEST TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR
90 CURRENTLY FIGURED FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A VERY QUIET
AND WARM PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS
THIS OCCURS...DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE DEFECTED NORTH OF THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...850 MB
TEMPS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20C BY TUE...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS
THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEWLY ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS RIDGING
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED
WITH MAINTAINING MAINLY A DRY FCST PENDING ADDITIONAL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG DEVELOPED BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z THIS MORNING, AND HAS BROUGHT
THE ELM TERMINAL INTO LIFR TERRITORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BEEN AT ALL HELPFUL, AS THE RUC SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
FAILED TO FORECAST THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR CASES IN THE PAST GENERALLY SAW FOG LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z, AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING THIS MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS FORECAST TONIGHT, AS
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR BUT WITH LESS MIXING WINDS
TO CONTEND WITH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG...MAINLY AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG/MDP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1008 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. RADAR SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. LOWERED POPS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HRRR SHOW SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CAPE...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY
POPS WEST OF THE VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DOWNWARD AS MOST OF THE REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE EAST OF THERE. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH FITS ONGOING
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN ND WELL. LOWERED HIGHS A TINY BIT IN
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT OTHERWISE KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AS WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EVERYWHERE BUT KBJI...AND THE IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THAT SITE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT KTVF AND KBJI THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
CEILING/VIS REDUCTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN INITIAL CONCERN IS CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES FRI NIGHT WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST MODEL. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW...SO WILL TREND THINGS A BIT
QUICKER WITH FRI NIGHT SYSTEM.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
LIKELY CROSSING INTO MN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE INTO THE EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH SHEAR AND DECENT CAPE...SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
GET TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS MAINLY IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT NO
HEADLINES ATTM.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE OUT OF THE EAST SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. PWATS WILL DECREASE AND EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN BY 12Z FRI.
ON FRI...THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WESTERN ND LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND JUST SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WITH AN INCREASING LLJ. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TONIGHTS CONVECTION...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS.
ON SAT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUING...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE
MAINLY IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES. TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUND AND WILL MAINTAIN ALLBLEND CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
THE GENERAL RULE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1022 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS. ALTHOUGH NOT
INDICATED IN THE 15Z UPDATED TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE
18Z TAFS.
58
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES TODAY AS LINGERING
BOUNDARY HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
VFR IS EXPECTED AT METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
STRATUS AT 015 IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT GKY/DAL.
SOUTH WINDS 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL. A ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
FOR WACO...STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE
LIFTING. VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT
RECENT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY. THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE NEAR BOWIE TO
MCKINNEY TO CANTON. THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE SHIFT
OF A SOUTHERLY WIND TO A SOUTHEAST WIND. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD
30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 800 MB. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY BEING
ASCENDED UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL LIFT.
THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE THE 305K ISENTROPIC CHART. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OUR LIFT TO DIMINISH
AND A BREAK FROM THE STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND
NOON. THE 14Z FORECAST FROM THE HRRR ALREADY SEEMS OUT OF THE LOOP
AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH WEIGHT TO ITS FORECAST.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOCATIONS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES WHERE THERE IS HIGHER
MOISTURE. YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WAS IN PART DUE TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND 500 MB WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE 10-25 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE...25 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS LIKE YESTERDAY...AS SHEAR ISNT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO STABILIZE...AS MODELS HAVE TRIED TO
FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. GUIDANCE NOW HOLDS SOME
INSTABILITY AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THEIR OUTPUT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT I AM FORECASTING.
FOR THIS MORNING...A WEAK BOUNDARY OR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...RUNNING GENERALLY FROM PALESTINE TO EASTLAND. A FEW
STORMS HAVE FIRED IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT SEEM TO BE
WEAKENING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...CENTERED BETWEEN
ATHENS AND FAIRFIELD...HAS BECOME LARGER IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT SEVERE WARNINGS
WERE ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR STORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
CROCKETT. I HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO LEONA...AND CONTINUED POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY AN INVERTED TROF...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND MAY
PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.
WITH SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED ALL WEEK...I AM STILL FORECASTING
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. SINCE THE RIDGE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THE USUAL MID-SUMMER //DEATH RIDGE//...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INVERSION STRENGTH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 74 94 73 93 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 91 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 90 72 91 / 20 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 74 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 92 72 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 94 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 91 70 91 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
917 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT
RECENT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY. THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE NEAR BOWIE TO
MCKINNEY TO CANTON. THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE SHIFT
OF A SOUTHERLY WIND TO A SOUTHEAST WIND. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD
30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 800 MB. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY BEING
ASCENDED UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL LIFT.
THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE THE 305K ISENTROPIC CHART. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OUR LIFT TO DIMINISH
AND A BREAK FROM THE STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND
NOON. THE 14Z FORECAST FROM THE HRRR ALREADY SEEMS OUT OF THE LOOP
AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH WEIGHT TO ITS FORECAST.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOCATIONS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES WHERE THERE IS HIGHER
MOISTURE. YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WAS IN PART DUE TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND 500 MB WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE 10-25 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE...25 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS LIKE YESTERDAY...AS SHEAR ISNT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG.
85/NH
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES TODAY AS LINGERING
BOUNDARY HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
VFR IS EXPECTED AT METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
STRATUS AT 015 IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT GKY/DAL.
SOUTH WINDS 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL. A ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
FOR WACO...STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE
LIFTING. VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO STABILIZE...AS MODELS HAVE TRIED TO
FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. GUIDANCE NOW HOLDS SOME
INSTABILITY AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THEIR OUTPUT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT I AM FORECASTING.
FOR THIS MORNING...A WEAK BOUNDARY OR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...RUNNING GENERALLY FROM PALESTINE TO EASTLAND. A FEW
STORMS HAVE FIRED IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT SEEM TO BE
WEAKENING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...CENTERED BETWEEN
ATHENS AND FAIRFIELD...HAS BECOME LARGER IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT SEVERE WARNINGS
WERE ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR STORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
CROCKETT. I HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO LEONA...AND CONTINUED POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY AN INVERTED TROF...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND MAY
PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.
WITH SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED ALL WEEK...I AM STILL FORECASTING
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. SINCE THE RIDGE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THE USUAL MID-SUMMER //DEATH RIDGE//...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INVERSION STRENGTH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 74 94 73 93 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 91 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 90 72 91 / 20 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 74 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 92 72 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 94 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 91 70 91 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CLIP NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE AT LEAST TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING HOW WARM IT
WILL BECOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ALSO NEED TO DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM A DISSIPATING MCS OVER NORTHERN WI
ATTM TO CLIP OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
A CONSENSUS OF 12Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MCS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN WI/SOUTHERN MN WILL STAY TO OUR NW TONIGHT. THAT IS WHERE
STRONG FORCING FROM THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DYING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAY FLIRT WITH OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES (MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LDM TO MOP) AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RGNL RADAR TRENDS.
I HAVE ADDED MENTION OF JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LAPS
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LOOK VERY DRY THOUGH AND I WOULD
EXPECT THE EASTERN WING OF THE DECAYING MCS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER EASTERN WI WHILE NEW CONVECTION TAKES OFF OVER WESTERN WI WHERE
THE ROBUST LLJ FORCING IS. WE WILL MAINLY JUST SEE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD BLOWOFF FROM THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NW
LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.
FAIR/MILDER WX ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA AND WITH H8 TEMPS REACHING 17-18 C BY TOMORROW
AFTN.
HOT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA
CONTINUING AND H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO 19 TO 20 C. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL NOT INHIBIT IT
FROM BECOMING HOT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BASED LARGELY ON 12Z GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING THE
APPROACH OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND INCREASING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 12Z NAM GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THRU 12Z
SUNDAY AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ONLY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR NW
FCST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SO OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
(SLIGHTLY) BETTER CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITH STORM SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST
BEING PUSHED UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL THAT LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL BARRIER TO THE WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.
A COUPLE SYSTEMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST WOULD DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT AND THE DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH.
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THINK
WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE... THIS MAY NOT PASS UNTIL POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALSO PASSES TO THE NORTH.
OVERALL... IT LOOKS WARM WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST... A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO THE SOUTH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA... BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO
15 KT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 2 FEET
OR LESS. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND AS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVERRUNS RELATIVELY COOLER LAKE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WX TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING A
CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL RUN...CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS.
THIS AFTERNOON...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST
WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
ON GOING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SYSTEM WAS
BACKBUILDING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT
STRETCH OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
HELP INSTIGATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAD COOLED DOWN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHERE THE FREEZING
LEVEL HAS LOWER FROM 13700 FEET EARLIER. MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY WAS LARGE HAIL...WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GEM-NHEM INDICATED MORE OF THE SAME NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL MORE BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY AND HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
EXTREME WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN MORE OF A HAIL THREAT THAN A WIND THREAT WITH
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND GUSTS IN THE 30KT RANGE. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN AT THIS TIME WITH CLEARING JUST AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD MSP AROUND 22Z
AND THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN AT THAT TIME.
THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION FOR
STC/MSP/RNH. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AT THESE SITES THEREFORE TS ACTIVITY
MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE. HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION 19/20Z
TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AXN AREA BUT STRUGGLES UNTIL
WE GET TO THE 22/23Z TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO RNH/MSP AND SOUTHEAST OF RWF. HRRR HAS IT OUT OF THE
MSP/RNH SITES BY 02Z AND OUT OF EAU BY 04Z.
KMSP...TS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FIELD AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF THE FIELD. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
UNTIL 22/23Z...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL GOOD
AT THIS TIME THOUGH. NOT SURE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD BEFORE THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH ARRIVES AROUND 00Z. IF
NOT WINDS IN THE TAF ARE TOO STRONG.
/OUTLOOK/
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES AFTN/EVN.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
118 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW...SEVERAL BOUTS OF RAIN LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MORE HUMIDITY ARRIVES TODAY AND LINGERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN NWS OFFICES HAVE BEEN DOING BATTLE
WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE NOW ON THE FRINGE OF THE WESTERN BORDER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING AREA OF STORMS ARE ON THE NOSE
OF A VERY STRONG 850MB JET AND IN THE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SO FAR...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. IN
FACT...THERE IS DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TIGHTENING
850MB-700MB ISOTHERMS. THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IS LIKELY THE
RESULT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE MOISTURE IS ALSO MUCH BETTER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL ND/SD.
NONETHELESS...INCLUDED HIGH POPS IN CENTRAL MN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH TIME ALTHOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
WEAKENING TREND. INCLUDED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
POINTING AND PWATS ARE ON THE RISE. ACTUALLY ITS 09Z AND JUST NOW
SEEING SOME LIGHT ELEVATED ECHOES OVER THE METRO.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE
RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW
SPC DAY1 HAS A 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. CAN`T REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS GIVEN THE 0-1KM SRH
AND BULK SHEAR OFF THE NAM AND RAP...RIGHT AROUND 100-200 M2/S2
AND 20KTS RESPECTIVELY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING TOWARDS DULUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE TOP 15 DATES FROM THE CIPS
WARM SEASON ANALOG OFF THE 00Z NAM FROM LAST NIGHT DOES
CONCENTRATE THE TORNADO REPORTS IN EAST CENTRAL MN...WITH THE WIND
AND HAIL COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA. MAX UPDRAFT HELICITY FROM
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND TO SOME DEGREE NCEP WRF ARW/NMM...HAVE A
COUPLE CLUSTERS OF +50 M2S2 BY 15.00Z ALONG A LINE FROM DULUTH TO
ALBERT LEA WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO. IN TERMS OF TIMING...21Z IN
CENTRAL MN...00-01Z IN EASTERN MN...AND 04Z CLEARING WEST CENTRAL
WI IS A GOOD FIRST GUESS BASED ON SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY...ITS EVOLUTION IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN BOTH TIMING AND HOW MUCH IT DEEPENS.
THE RESULTANT SFC CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT ARE THEREFORE
AFFECTED...SO DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINK THERE WILL BE
GOOD STORM COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
ON SATURDAY.
STILL TRACKING THAT VORT MAX THAT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS
MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING OUT OF
CO TONIGHT AND TRACKING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ENDING UP
IN SOUTHERN MN BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT ORIGINATES OUT OF CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST - SO LIKELY CONVECTIVE INDUCED.
IN THE EXTENDED...LONG WAVE TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED DEEPENING
AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AT THAT TIME
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE TROUGHING MIGHT BE HELD IN PLACE FOR A
WHILE WITH BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM HOLD THE PATTERN ROUGHLY IN
PLACE. THE CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN MY CREATE SOME HYDROLOGY
CONCERNS GIVEN THE RECENT WET PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY AND HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND
EXTREME WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN MORE OF A HAIL THREAT THAN A WIND THREAT WITH
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND GUSTS IN THE 30KT RANGE. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN AT THIS TIME WITH CLEARING JUST AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD MSP AROUND 22Z
AND THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN AT THAT TIME.
THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION FOR
STC/MSP/RNH. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AT THESE SITES THEREFORE TS ACTIVITY
MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE. HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION 19/20Z
TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AXN AREA BUT STRUGGLES UNTIL
WE GET TO THE 22/23Z TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO RNH/MSP AND SOUTHEAST OF RWF. HRRR HAS IT OUT OF THE
MSP/RNH SITES BY 02Z AND OUT OF EAU BY 04Z.
KMSP...TS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FIELD AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF THE FIELD. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
UNTIL 22/23Z...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL GOOD
AT THIS TIME THOUGH. NOT SURE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD BEFORE THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH ARRIVES AROUND 00Z. IF
NOT WINDS IN THE TAF ARE TOO STRONG.
/OUTLOOK/
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES AFTN/EVN.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
CLF/DRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
256 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Gusty southeast winds have maintained rather dry conditions across
the area this afternoon, while abundant sunshine has pushed
temperatures into the middle and upper 80s. Meanwhile, quality
moisture continues to stream north through the Plains, denoted by an
increasing Cu field from Omaha-Topeka-Chanute westward. Cloud cover
along an advancing cold front was enhancing differential heating
from north of Omaha to Hastings, and continued afternoon heating
coupled with increasing moisture is expected to lead to thunderstorm
initiation within the next couple of hours. The evolution of this
activity leads to considerable uncertainly locally as we head into
the overnight hours.
At face value, the combination of strong instability, frontal
convergence and a weak mid level impulse leads to high confidence of
thunderstorm initiation across the Mid Missouri Valley. As has been
the case of late, deep layer shear is marginally supportive of
multi-cell clusters. However, it should be noted that the bulk of
the deep layer shear (20-30 kts) is focused mainly in the lowest
3-4km. Historically, these high CAPE and weak, low tropospheric
shear cases have been overlooked and can often manifest themselves
as long-lived organized MCS events. The NAM has been suggesting this
in the mass fields for a number of runs now, and recent HRRR and
other convection allowing output also side with this notion. Low
level shear vectors and moisture flux vectors would suggest an
overall SE momentum of any organized system(s), with an eastern
limit bounded by the dry air circulating the high to our east. With
that said, feel that increasing POPs is warranted both numerically
and spatially across western MO and eastern KS for tonight. Severe
weather, primarily in the form of wind potential, will be dictated
by any upscale growth of the system and the maintenance of
downstream instability into the late evening hours. This is somewhat
more questionable, but the derecho that ran from srn MO to the Gulf
coast back on Monday occurred in a far less suitable environment.
Depending on any remnant MCV and/or surface outflow boundary,
differential heating could again yield scattered thunderstorms again
tomorrow afternoon, with several larger scale perturbations
emanating from the central Rockies providing greater chances
Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation/cloud cover will ultimately drive
max/min temperature potential, so have opted to stay the course with
mid-upper 80s for highs and 65-70 for lows for the bulk of the CWA
as a hedge toward persistence (just above climo).
Bookbinder
Medium Range (Sunday through Thursday)...
Tail end of the weekend will arrive with a frontal boundary sagging
south into eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, pushed into our
region by one of many shortwaves moving through the northern stream.
GFS and ECMWF have converged some over the past couple of runs
towards a common solution which pushes the late weekend frontal
boundary south into Missouri during the day Sunday. However, as the
front settles into Missouri the parent shortwave will be exiting the
region through the Upper Great Lakes, indicating that the southerly
push on the front will fade quickly. This presents the likely
scenario for Sunday something like this; decaying thunderstorms may
still be kicking around parts of eastern Kansas and Missouri after
sunrise Sunday with it likely that any morning activity will either
shift east out of the area, or fade away by the mid to late morning
hours. This, however, leaves the potential for afternoon recovery of
instability in the vicinity of the frontal boundary that should be
wallowing around the northern half of Missouri. Of course convective
debris may complicate this, but in general this has lent some
confidence to the idea that rain will make an appearance across
parts of the forecast area Sunday, whether it`s from the morning
activity (more likely) or afternoon initiation (a little less
likely). Have avoided pushing up any of the POPs for Sunday beyond
the chance category as the persistently advertised surface high,
which will be stretched across the eastern CONUS through the Gulf
Coast, will likely impede the moisture return from the Gulf some.
After Sunday, a very broad trough is advertised to have moved into
the western CONUS, this will result in a slightly more southwest
orientation to the flow, likely keeping temperatures above normal
through the middle of the work week. As this occurs, focus for any
potential precipitation will shift north, closer to the storms track
of the westerlies. Have damped down any mention of POPs from Monday
through the day Wednesday as a result. Wednesday night into Thursday
the broad west CONUS trough should be starting to traverse the upper
half of the Plains States, so have kept chance POPs in for Wednesday
night and Thursday as another frontal boundary settles south.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
scattered cumulus expected to develop prior to 19Z. Winds will
remain southerly at 12 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of 22-24
knots expected. Winds will lose their gusty character around 00Z and
back slightly toward the south-southeast this evening.
Latest numerical guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms
developing along a frontal zone stretches from northeast through
southwest Nebraska. Wind shear weighted in the lower atmosphere,
coupled with moderate to strong instability would tend to favor the
upscale growth into one or more mesoscale convective systems
overnight. With a slow southeast movement/propagation anticipated,
this activity (if it survives) would reach the terminals toward
daybreak. A PROB30 has been included for now to handle the
anticipated scattered nature of this nocturnal activity as it
reaches the Lower Missouri Valley late tonight.
Bookbinder
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AND TO WARM HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ADDED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EVENING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE MORNING UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TAIL END OF NRN
PLAINS COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR NWRN CWA WHERE
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MOIST
ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING. BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK BUT DID ADD MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TWO REASONS.
THE FIRST BEING THE RICH THETA-E AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PW`S FORECAST AROUND 1.50-1.90". THE SECOND REASON IS BECAUSE OF
THE SLOW NATURE OF ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION. HPC HAS PUT THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ONSET OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL
TSTM ACTIVITY MOVES OVER SITES. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
TO CONTINUE UNTIL WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TSTMS.
KERN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ADVERTISING FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED
WITH A TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND RIDGE AMPLIFYING EAST.
SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAST FLOW WESTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN
TIER STATES. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PUSH PRECIP
WATER VALUES GREATER THAT 1.5"/KI AROUND 40...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MUCAPES CATAPULT TO 4500 J/KG. LATEST HIRES RAP AND NMM ARE
ADVERTISING ACTIVITY ERUPTING AROUND 18Z ON EDGE OF WEAK CAP...JUST
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE ALONG WELL DEFINE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE WELL INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE U.S./CAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY FOR THIS SO NO NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS THAT SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES
AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
153 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE RUC WITH HIGHEST
DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FORMED MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
PLACED A VICINITY THUNDER FOR CHA AS A STORM MAY DEVELOP NEARBY.
KEPT THE OTHER TERMINALS FREE FROM PRECIP. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SLOWLY BUILDING
HEIGHTS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
601 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATCHING TSTMS
AGAIN OVER THE TRANS PECOS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THIS COMPLEX. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THIS MORNING...500MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY
FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...
WE HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
HELPING KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA AS DEWPOINT VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH KABI SITTING AT 69
DEGREES...AND KBBD AT 70 DEGREES AT 2PM. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000
J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST...AND IF IT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DEVELOPS A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY 3 OR 4 PM LOCAL TIME...FURTHER DEVELOPING THAT INTO
A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THE NAM
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL QPF FARTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY...AND ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME QPF...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPE VALUES...0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WE COULD EXPECT TO SEE THESE
STORMS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE WIND AS A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
RESULT IN AN /INVERTED V/ TYPE SOUNDING AND DECENT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. THAT/S ALL DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP. WHILE WE ARE ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THE
MOMENT...IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP...WE WILL LIKELY
UPDATE THE FORECAST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WARMER THAN...BETWEEN THIS MORNING/S LOWS AND THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY WENT WITH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...AS WE/VE GENERALLY BEEN WARMER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHEN
NOT EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM...
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST US...WHILE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE EAST. THIS SETS UP A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...BUT IF IT
DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR
EAST. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL JUST SLIGHTLY...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 95 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 75 97 74 95 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 74 95 74 93 72 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...
THIS MORNING...500MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY
FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...
WE HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
HELPING KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA AS DEWPOINT VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH KABI SITTING AT 69
DEGREES...AND KBBD AT 70 DEGREES AT 2PM. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000
J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST...AND IF IT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DEVELOPS A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY 3 OR 4 PM LOCAL TIME...FURTHER DEVELOPING THAT INTO
A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THE NAM
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL QPF FARTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY...AND ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME QPF...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPE VALUES...0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WE COULD EXPECT TO SEE THESE
STORMS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE WIND AS A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
RESULT IN AN /INVERTED V/ TYPE SOUNDING AND DECENT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. THAT/S ALL DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP. WHILE WE ARE ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THE
MOMENT...IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP...WE WILL LIKELY
UPDATE THE FORECAST.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WARMER THAN...BETWEEN THIS MORNING/S LOWS AND THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY WENT WITH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...AS WE/VE GENERALLY BEEN WARMER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHEN
NOT EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST US...WHILE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE EAST. THIS SETS UP A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...BUT IF IT
DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR
EAST. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL JUST SLIGHTLY...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 95 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 75 97 74 95 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 74 95 74 93 72 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
114 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
09-15Z FRIDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CAP IS ALMOST GONE ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z. HAVE PLACED
VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 20Z THROUGH 00Z PERIOD. SOME
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOR NOW HAVE PLACED BKN018 FOR THE 09-15Z PERIOD. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT
RECENT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY. THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE NEAR BOWIE TO
MCKINNEY TO CANTON. THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE SHIFT
OF A SOUTHERLY WIND TO A SOUTHEAST WIND. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD
30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 800 MB. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY BEING
ASCENDED UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL LIFT.
THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE THE 305K ISENTROPIC CHART. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OUR LIFT TO DIMINISH
AND A BREAK FROM THE STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND
NOON. THE 14Z FORECAST FROM THE HRRR ALREADY SEEMS OUT OF THE LOOP
AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH WEIGHT TO ITS FORECAST.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOCATIONS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES WHERE THERE IS HIGHER
MOISTURE. YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WAS IN PART DUE TO
MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW.
THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND 500 MB WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE 10-25 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE...25 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS LIKE YESTERDAY...AS SHEAR ISNT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO STABILIZE...AS MODELS HAVE TRIED TO
FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. GUIDANCE NOW HOLDS SOME
INSTABILITY AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THEIR OUTPUT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT I AM FORECASTING.
FOR THIS MORNING...A WEAK BOUNDARY OR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...RUNNING GENERALLY FROM PALESTINE TO EASTLAND. A FEW
STORMS HAVE FIRED IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT SEEM TO BE
WEAKENING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...CENTERED BETWEEN
ATHENS AND FAIRFIELD...HAS BECOME LARGER IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT SEVERE WARNINGS
WERE ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR STORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
CROCKETT. I HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO LEONA...AND CONTINUED POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY AN INVERTED TROF...EXTENDING NORTH FROM A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF...WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND MAY
PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST AS A RESULT.
WITH SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED ALL WEEK...I AM STILL FORECASTING
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. SINCE THE RIDGE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THE USUAL MID-SUMMER //DEATH RIDGE//...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INVERSION STRENGTH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 74 94 73 93 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 69 89 / 30 20 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 91 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 90 72 91 / 20 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 74 92 75 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 92 72 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 94 73 92 / 20 20 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 91 70 91 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
226 PM PDT Thu Jun 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A progressive flow off of the north Pacific will maintain cooler
than normal temperatures over the region for the next week. from
time to time weak disturbances will ride this flow bringing a
chance of mainly mountain showers to the area. Stronger systems
with the potential for more widespread showers will arrive for the
new work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...The last in the recent series of relatively
weak upper level short waves is transiting the region today. With
a much more stable air mass and less moisture to work with this
wave is much more benign with mainly thick mid level and high
clouds. Still...the HRRR radar extrapolation based model suggests
the potential for a few showers kicking off this evening over the
northern mountains closest to the trough base dynamic region and
instability area under the cool pool aloft...which will pass
through southern BC tonight. Otherwise...a generally benign
weather regime is expected overnight. The trough will bring a
gradient push through the gaps in the Cascades and promote breezy
evening conditions over the deep basin as surface high pressure
builds into the area.
on Friday a weak short wave ridge will become established over the
region for dryer and warmer conditions...but still not up to
normal temperature-wise. The ridging will effectively suppress
any chance of showers even in the mountains. Friday will be a
pleasant and likely mostly sunny spring day...although more like a
May spring day rather than a mid-June spring day. /Fugazzi
Friday night through Sunday night: The large scale flow across
the Pac NW will transition to a moist zonal flow Friday night
and then toward more of a troffy pattern Sunday night. We can
expect a relatively tranquil weather day on Saturday followed by
increasing precipitation chances Saturday night and Sunday.
Throughout the period, precipitation chances will be highest
across the northern and eastern mountains with mostly dry
conditions expected in the lee of the Cascades and majority of the
western Basin. Models have also trend significantly wetter for the
Palouse and Idaho Panhandle compared to previous runs and these
changes were reflected in the latest forecast.
There is a very impressive and rich moisture fetch crossing into
the Eastern Pacific Basin with AMSU satellite imagery indicating
over an 1.50" of precipitable water near 160W. A strong westerly
jet setting up between the Gulf of Alaska low and high pressure
off the CA coast will transport this moisture into the region
Saturday leading to increasing clouds but very small precipitation
chances away from the Cascade Crest and N mtns where relatively
light rainfall amounts are expected. The first signs of forcing
arrive Saturday night into Sunday per all model guidance as a
shortwave and associated frontal system press through the region.
There are some differences noted with the strength/depth of this
midlevel wave however in one form or another, there is strong
agreement that a cold front will pass through the region Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. Models have trend much wetter
with the warm sector pcpn across NE WA and N ID btwn 00-06z where
upwards of a quarter of an inch is now possible. Further
investigation suggest the presence of strong 305K isentropic
ascent coupled with a layer of 700-500mb negative theta-e lapse
rates so the potential does exist for a burst of heavy shower
activity given these conditions and moisture advecting into the
region.
Late Saturday night/early Sunday...the front slumps into the
region...in a nw to se fashion, models have come into better
agreement of showers...potentially moderate at times, setting
between Ritzville and Mullan. Combined with increasing sw
upsloping flow into the Central Idaho Panhandle Mtns...suggest the
potential for another area of higher QPF amts which as of the 12z
model runs...ranges from 0.25" on the SREF to .35" EC/NAM to .60"
via the GFS over the 6 hr period between 6-12z Sunday. Given the
slower arrival of a midlevel dry slot from previous runs and how
juicy the upstream moisture fetch is, I would not discount the
latest guidance but due to the amount of bouncing around from
previous runs...I only began to show an increase in PoPs and QPF
with expectations that this forecast will need to be further
increased given we achieve stability in the models.
The front will track east of the region early Sunday afternoon
driven by a 130kt NW jet and accompanied midlevel dry slot. This
will result in rapid clearing and drying away from the Cascade
Crest toward the Idaho Panhandle. Low level drying will quickly
cease any additional pcpn threats for points south of line from
Omak to Winchester but the cooler air, on the north side of the
jet, will renew the chance for convective showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon across NE WA and N ID. Shear will definitely be in
the moderate to strong range, but less confidence holds with the
model`s dewpoints and resultant fcst"d" CAPE values so tough to
say exactly what mode of storms if any at all this far in
advance...stay tuned.
We have warmed temperatures for Saturday and cooled slightly for
Sunday yielding temperatures slightly above normal to start the
weekend and near normal to end. /sb
Sunday night through Thursday...Models are in good agreement
through Tuesday that a 120 knot jet stream will be located south
of our area across Oregon. This will place Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho on the cold and unstable side of the
jet with a series of waves tracking into the area. This will
result in showers both days especially in the afternoon and
evening hours when the atmosphere is the most unstable. GFS and
ECMWF have the best instability over the mountains of Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle so a slight chance of
thunderstorms was kept in the forecast. The least shower coverage
will be in the lee of the Cascades due to 850mb winds of 10-20
knots downsloping off the mountains. Overall precipitation chances
were increased Monday and Tuesday based on GFS Ensemble mean pops
and the ECMWF solution. 850mb temperatures drop to around 7-10C
resulting in high temperatures in the valleys mainly in the 60s
to lower 70s which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. On Wednesday
and Thursday indications are that a ridge will begin to build with
a drying and warming trend. Although some model solutions indicate
a weak wave passing near the Canadian border on Wednesday so some
shower activity may linger over the northern Mountains. The ridge
however does not look to last long with another trough possibly
impacting the Inland Northwest beyond the extended forecast
period. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak upper level wave will pass through the region
today but the air mass is stable and most of the associated
moisture is high elevation. Thus while occasionally thick mid
level and high cirrus will prevail...ceilings at all TAF sites
will remain aoa 10 Kft MSL. A few afternoon showers are possible
over the high terrain north of the Columbia Basin and the high
Cascades. VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 18z
Friday. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 44 72 48 77 54 74 / 10 0 0 0 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 44 70 46 75 52 70 / 20 0 0 0 30 20
Pullman 43 69 45 74 52 72 / 10 0 0 0 30 20
Lewiston 51 77 52 81 58 78 / 10 0 0 0 20 10
Colville 45 78 48 80 51 77 / 20 0 0 10 20 10
Sandpoint 42 71 42 73 51 68 / 20 0 0 10 30 40
Kellogg 43 68 46 71 51 65 / 20 0 0 0 40 40
Moses Lake 49 78 54 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 50 80 55 82 58 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 44 79 49 81 53 77 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
242 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...PUSHING EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED THUNDERSTORM ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON.
PLAN ON ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IMPACTING THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND HEAD FOR HUDSON BAY. THE FRONT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND BECOME STATIONARY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ON
FRIDAY. THE 12Z NAM PLACES THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHEAST TO NEAR WINONA MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THE 00 ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH...STRETCHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GFS IS
IN LINE WITH THE NAM. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THE NAM DEWPOINTS LOOK A LITTLE
ON THE HIGH SIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 68 TO
75...SO NOT BUYING INTO THE LARGE CAPE VALUES IT PRODUCING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH FORCING NOTED ALOFT BUT THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KTS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. THE NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER
INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...1.21...DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DECIDED TO INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT THOSE HIGHER CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH VS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD
COVER/ALONG WITH THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE
HEATING DIMINISHES. 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEAK THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON WILL BE A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING EAST HEADED FOR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND ACT AS A WARM FRONT AS THIS FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER. A
LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH FROM THE
DAKOTAS...WILL BE PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING
OF THIS WAVE. THE LEADING WAVE APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR RAPIDLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR LAGS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHEAR APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 0-3KM MUCAPE
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA..WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PLAN ON PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA TO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
242 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
14.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA PUSHING EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO SET UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY SPARKING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
STARTS TO DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ITS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. THE ACTIVE
PATTER REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE
80S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
CURRENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM/COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING
THE SHOWERS/STORMS. EXPECT A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST HRRR AND ARW
MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE DYING OUT OF THE SHRA/TS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE RAP/NAM12/GFS ALL SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD
CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. FEEL THERE IS
MORE SUPPORT OF A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT THIS MOMENT...SO WILL
STEER THE TAFS THAT WAY.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WAVER NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHRA/TS. GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WOULD
FAVOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE NOT
TOO HIGH ON TIMING THOUGH. ANY RIPPLE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WOULD ALSO RESULT IN SHRA/TS.
EXPECT THAT TAFS WILL NEED AMENDMENTS WHEN TIMING FOR PCPN THREATS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT KRST/KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
242 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN
SD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW
WAS GENERATING AN MCS THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS IA.
SHRA/TS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THIS WAVE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE ND MCS. OTHERWISE...CLOSER TO HOME...A
FEW MID-CLOUD AND ANVIL DEBRIS CLOUD FROM OLD IA CONVECTION DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S.
WILL BE KEEPING CLOSE TRACK OF THE MCS THIS MORNING...WATCHING ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING THE MID-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH FROM MT INTO NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS TAKES
NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHEAST WITH IT...SO EXPECTING THE MCS
TO SCOOT NORTHEAST AS WELL INTO NORTHERN MN. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR SOME ACCAS
GENERATION AND ISOLATED SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A MEDFORD/ARCADIA/ROCHESTER/AUSTIN LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
LIKELY KEEP AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT
ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO CENTRAL MN AS 0-3 MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 3000J/KG AND MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG
RANGE. AMPLE SHEAR ALSO PRESENT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. SO...THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR THIS LINE TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE COLD FRONT/LINE
OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A WEAKENING TREND AS CAPE
DIMINISHES AND BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SKIRTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN MN.
MAINTAINED MID-RANGE SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTERACTING WITH DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING CLOSELY AS MODELS SHOW A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. SURPRISINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ONLY PRODUCE
AROUND 500-600J/KG 0-3KM MLCAPE AND THIS COULD BE TIED INTO CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER IF MORE HEATING IS REALIZED...THERE COULD BE BE A
SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DECENT BULK
SHEAR.
FOR SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
REST OF THE PERIOD MARKED BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE/HIGH ZONAL FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS MID-RANGE SHRA/THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOCUSED ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CLUSTER OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KRST/KLSE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...AND MOVE NORTHEAST...MOST
LIKELY IMPACTING KRST BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z...WITH THE POSSIBLITY
MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. AT KLSE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON ANY STORMS TO IMPACT TERMINAL...SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT KRST AND 20
KTS AT KLSE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS..LOW-AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE ACRS THE NRN
TIER OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA...WITH MEAN TROF POSN OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND RIDGE POSN IN THE E. THAT PATTERN WL PERSIST FOR A
FEW DAYS...THEN THE WESTERLIES WL STRENGTHEN AND LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION WL OCCUR. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE SHOULD BE A
BROAD BUT FAIRLY STG UPR TROF CENTERED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES OR NRN
PLAINS...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THOUGH DAILY TEMPS WL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS...TEMPS WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND IF THE MEAN TROF AXIS EDGES E AS NOW
INDICATED. THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN THAN WHAT
WE/VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. OF COURSE...ACTUAL PCPN
AMNTS WL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT
REMAIN UNKNOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/FRI. ISSUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO SPILL OVER INTO THE FCST AREA ARISE EARLY AND THEN
CONT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TSTM COMPLEX
OVER ERN ND/NERN SD. IT/S BEING FED BY INSTABILITY AXIS STILL WELL
W OF THE FCST AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE COMPLEX NE AND
WEAKENS IT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH THE RUC BRINGS IT E THEN TURNS
IT DUE S ACRS MN...DIRECTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ON LOCAL MESO PLOTS OVER SRN MN...AND
RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO FIT THE RUC. GET THE FEELING THIS IS GOING TO
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE IT/S A WASTE OF TIME TRYING TO
TRY AND TRACK THE FEATURE USING THE GUIDANCE AND SIMPLY KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AND USING EXTRAPOLATION IS GOING TO
WORK BETTER. AS SUCH...NEED TO KEEP POPS OVER THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA TDA...AND PROBABLY CAN/T BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING AS
ONGOING STORMS COULD GET THERE BEFORE NOON IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
OVERALL TREND HOWEVER HAS TO BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THEY GET FARTHER E...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPEMENT
FARTHER E TO BE GREATLY LIMITED BY INFLUX OF DRY AIR CIRCULATION
BACK OUT OF DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SHRA/TSRA WL
GRADUALLY START TO EDGE E AS COLD FRONT TRAILING FM CYCLONE LIFTG
TOWARD HUDSON BAY WORKS TOWARD THE RGN. BUT THE FRONT WL START TO
SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS TO THE FCST AREA AS IT/S PARENT CYCLONE
PULLS OFF TO THE NE. DRY AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WL CONT TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO ERN WI. MAIN FCST CHG WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO
TRIM POPS OVER THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE E-C WI WL STAY DRY THROUGH FRI...WAS NOT COMFORTABLE
TOTALLY PULLING POPS OUT FOR MOST OF THAT AREA. SO BACKED DOWN FM
WHAT WE HAD GOING...AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REMOVE IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE.
WARMER AIR WL BE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON SLY WINDS. THE BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WAS VERY WARM OVER E-C WI ON FRI...PROBABLY
DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN. IT/S A TRICKY FCST...BECAUSE IF THERE ARE
MORE CLDS WE WON/T WARM AS MUCH. STILL...TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
FCST SUGGESTED THE NEED TO GO WITH THE WARMER MAXES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW WITH CHALLENGING EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO MAKE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS MODEL CONCENSUS INDICATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES...IN INITIALLY
BAGGY WESTERN US TROUGH...WILL TRY AND RIDE UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF STUBBORN MEAN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS DIFFER ON
EVOLUTION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. INHERITED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY OF THE EXTENDED AND SEE NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL RUNS TO JUSTIFY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
LATEST GEM DID SUGGEST THAT POSSIBLE MCS COMING OUT OF IOWA
FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD NOT GET INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND WOULD AT BEST CLIP OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE OPER GFS WAS MUCH QUICKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTED THERE COULD BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DID
TRIM BACK POPS SOME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT REMAINED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO LOWERED POPS SOME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A BREAK IN PRECIPTATION BEHIND INITIAL DISTURBANCE. WILL LET
LATER FORECAST SHIFTS TRY AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE RESOLUTION WITH
LATER MODEL FORECASTS.
PRETTY MUCH LEFT REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS INHERITED AND RETAINED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RATHER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS AS TOO
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...VERY TRICKY FCST OVER THE NXT 24 HOURS AS ONE CLUSTER
OF TSTMS IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OVER CNTRL WI (FARTHER EAST THAT
ANTICIPATED) WITH MORE TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MN AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CDFNT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL OVER ERN WI WITH
DRY AIR HANGING ON...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE RHI...AUW AND CWA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER
TNGT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS TNGT AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC TO RESIDE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AK