Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/11/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB. S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AT KALS BETWEEN ABOUT
15Z AND 17Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO BE WINDY THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KTS. S TO SW WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 17-19Z WITH AT 15-20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
..SMALL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...
STILL SOME MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH SEEM TO BE LACKING ANY
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES TODAY TO HELP FIRE OFF CONVECTION. SFC PRESSURE
FALLS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. 16Z HRRR
MIXES DRY LINE EASTWARD TO ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIM TO LA JUNTA
BY 00Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE...AND ELEVATED HEATING
ALONG THE RIDGE OF OF THE RATON MESA TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
THE POOLING DEW POINTS EAST OF THE DRY LINE...COULD SEE CAPES
1500-2000+ J/KG...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. EACH
SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUN SEEMS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN
SLOPES OF THE RATON...EASTWARD ACROSS BACA...BENT...PROWERS...AND
KIOWA COUNTIES AFTER 21Z. WITH SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEARS STILL RUNNING AROUND 30-40 KTS...THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE DRY LINE.
SPC HAS A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING
ALOFT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 03Z. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A CALL AROUND TO FIRE DISTRICTS OUT WEST
INDICATES THAT DRYING FUELS SHOULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY BY TOMORROW. WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO WRN MT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND FREMONT COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE CRITICAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
MANY AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAD RAIN IN THE RECENT DAYS...BUT SOME
MISSED OUT...AND FINER FUELS MAY BE CRITICALLY DRY IN THESE PATCHY
AREAS. HOWEVER...FUELS ACROSS FIRE ZONES 232...233 (EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OTERO COUNTIES)...WHICH ALSO MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE SOLID REPORTS OF SUFFICIENT
GREEN UP TO OFFSET ANY CURING FUELS...SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON
THESE REPORTS FOR OTHER AREAS SUCH AS PUEBLO COUNTY...AND PORTIONS
OF CROWLEY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THUS RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STILL
SUFFICIENT GREEN UP FROM SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO THOSE WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NICE SUMMER-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. -KT
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRY WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
MINIMAL. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING...SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME
CONVECTION...AND MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. AIR ALOFT WILL BE DRY AND DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS TO
THE MOUNTAINS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE. AIR ALOFT REMAINS DRY AND DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE
REMAINING MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...RETURN FLOW MAY BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STARTING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH STARTS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. A
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TOUGH TO FORECAST THESE SUBTLE FEATURES
IN DAYS 4 TO 7...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.
--PGW--
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED
TCU POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KPUB...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KCOS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING INTO KCOS AND KALS DURING
THE LATE MORNING...AND BY 18-19Z AT KPUB. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222-
224-225.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
TO THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWS
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN NW FLOW ALONG A WEAK
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS THE ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. FURTHER NORTH...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS. THE LATEST 07 UTC HRRR SHOWS THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCT
ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE AFTN
HOURS...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SKIES LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR
THE DAY.
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL
PA AND NJ. WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HEADED TOWARDS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING...AND FORECASTED SHOWALTER VALUES TO ONLY
DROP TO AS LOW AS +2 C...THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH THUNDER FROM
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTN...BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK TOO WIDESPREAD...AND
ANY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST TODAY.
HAVE GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TAKE PLACE...AND A COOL NIGHT WILL OCCUR
FOR THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
RANGE FROM THE 40S IN NORTHERN AREAS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY...AS WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE-850 HPA FROM THE
W-SW STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS WARMING TO 12-16 DEGREES C...WARMER MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY...WITH 80S ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL START TO
CREEP UP...BUT IT WON/T BECOME TOO UNBEARABLE JUST YET...WITH TDS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F.
A NARROW AREA OF STRONG RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS/HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT...THIS SHOULD PUT A CAP IN PLACE...AND PREVENT ANY CONVECTION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES OFF THE ATLANTIC TO
ALLOW A MARINE LAYER TO SNEAK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK PRETTY WARM...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN SOME AREAS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS...IN
CASE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MON NIGHT MIN TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA...WITH MUGGY TDS
CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER JAMES BAY LOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO INTERACT AND MERGE OVER JAMES BAY REGION
DURING THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL EXIT FURTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
MERGES OVER JAMES BAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE CWFA TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. QUESTION
REMAINS JUST HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS AS THE
GGEM/GFS REMAIN THE SLOWEST WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FAVORS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS SO WE WILL RETAIN AN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEYOND TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AND AWAIT FOR FUTURE TRENDS AND CONFIDENCE.
THEREAFTER...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR NOW AND TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE LACK OF THERMALLY ADVECTIVE CHANGES SEEN IN THE
ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME RESIDUAL
IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS DUE TO FOG...BUT
THIS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...AS RAINFALL SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...WE ONCE AGAIN
FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE
`MIFG`.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5KTS AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. CHC EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX. CHC LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...INCR CHC SHRA/TSRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
WED...VFR...CHC MVFR -SHRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...ESP FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 4-8
MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL ONLY BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW SPOTS MAY LOCALLY RECEIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
359 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
TO THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY...AIDED BY A
WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY AT 500 HPA...WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ALONG A STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE
BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TOWARDS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND PERHAPS INTO NW CT. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE...RADAR TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST BETTER TIMING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN...WHICH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH AS WELL. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS STARTING IN THE
MORNING...AND A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FOR THE AFTN HOURS. FAR NORTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS THE
DACKS...SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY FOR ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS TODAY.
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL
PA AND NJ. WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HEADED TOWARDS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING...AND FORECASTED SHOWALTER VALUES TO ONLY
DROP TO AS LOW AS +2 C...THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH THUNDER FROM
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST...BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK TOO WIDESPREAD...AND ANY STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.
HAVE GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TAKE PLACE...AND A COOL NIGHT WILL OCCUR
FOR THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
RANGE FROM THE 40S IN NORTHERN AREAS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY...AS WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE-850 HPA FROM THE
W-SW STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS WARMING TO 12-16 DEGREES C...WARMER MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY...WITH 80S ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL START TO
CREEP UP...BUT IT WON/T BECOME TOO UNBEARABLE JUST YET...WITH TDS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F.
A NARROW AREA OF STRONG RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS/HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT...THIS SHOULD PUT A CAP IN PLACE...AND PREVENT ANY CONVECTION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES OFF THE ATLANTIC TO
ALLOW A MARINE LAYER TO SNEAK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK PRETTY WARM...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN SOME AREAS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS...IN
CASE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MON NIGHT MIN TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA...WITH MUGGY TDS
CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER JAMES BAY LOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO INTERACT AND MERGE OVER JAMES BAY REGION
DURING THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL EXIT FURTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
MERGES OVER JAMES BAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE CWFA TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. QUESTION
REMAINS JUST HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS AS THE
GGEM/GFS REMAIN THE SLOWEST WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FAVORS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS SO WE WILL RETAIN AN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEYOND TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AND AWAIT FOR FUTURE TRENDS AND CONFIDENCE.
THEREAFTER...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR NOW AND TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE LACK OF THERMALLY ADVECTIVE CHANGES SEEN IN THE
ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30KTS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION WHERE THE RAIN HAS OCCURRED FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AS WE WILL MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...A MIXTURE OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL AC DECK
ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY
ACROSS NORTHERN-LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF LOWER ONTARIO.
LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RAP SUGGEST THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KPOU WHERE WE WILL PLACE A DOMINANT SHRA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...WE WILL PLACE A VCSH UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE SEEN.
WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT SPEEDS
LESS THAN 5KTS AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. THE DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NT...VFR...CHC MVFR WITH MIST/MIFG.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. CHC EARLY AM MVFR/IFR
WITH FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX. CHC LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...INCR CHC SHRA/TSRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...ESP FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 4-8
MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL ONLY BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW SPOTS MAY LOCALLY RECEIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. FINALLY...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED OR
PUSHED EAST OF MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER FOR THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VT/NORTHERN LITCHFIELD FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
EASTERN AREAS...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING IMPULSE. WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG WITH YESTERDAY/S
RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN AREAS...THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. MIN TEMPS
STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SRN DACKS TO THE MID 50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SET UP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A MCS TYPE SYSTEM
WILL FORM TONIGHT AND RIPPLE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DYING OUT. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MORE STRATIFORM
LIKE PCPN OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...
DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST...THEN
DECREASING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH ON SUNDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
TSTMS.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON-MON NT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 588 DM. HOWEVER...IT IS A NARROW SPIKEY RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH HIGH IS POSITIONED OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SO...DESPITE
WHAT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY...THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF A MARINE LAYER ADVECTING INTO REGION WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS. WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THINGS...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS FOR MAXES...AND 70S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
MAXES MAY BE COOLER...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR MON NT MINS...EXPECT 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON TUESDAY A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING MAINLY
INCREASING CLOUDS. GFS HOLDS OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
TUE NIGHT-THU...MODELS INDICATE A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MOST LIKELY
TUE NT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
IT SHOULD BE RATHER HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT MAX TEMPS WED/THU...GENERALLY REACHING THE 70S...AFTER
REACHING THE LOWER 80S ON TUE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT/WED
NT...GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THU/FRI...BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z EURO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN AND KEEPS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AS SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30KTS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION WHERE THE RAIN HAS OCCURRED FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AS WE WILL MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...A MIXTURE OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL AC DECK
ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY
ACROSS NORTHERN-LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF LOWER ONTARIO.
LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RAP SUGGEST THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KPOU WHERE WE WILL PLACE A DOMINANT SHRA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...WE WILL PLACE A VCSH UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE SEEN.
WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT SPEEDS
LESS THAN 5KTS AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. THE DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NT...VFR...CHC MVFR WITH MIST/MIFG.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. CHC EARLY AM MVFR/IFR
WITH FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX. CHC LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...INCR CHC SHRA/TSRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FINALLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WHILE BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER HALF AN INCH. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY BACK TO A WASHINGTON
DC OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK CLOUDINESS NOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY
15Z THEN MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
07Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ BETWEN 12Z-15Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ. OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WHERE IT RAINS BUT THATS THE UNKNOWN
ATTM.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE IS A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WHEN SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW UPPER
FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND
NRN NJ FOR NOW WITH SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF THIS ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND ERN NJ. TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SUN LIKELY THE WARMER DAY. HIGHS ON MON
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BE OFF THE COAST TUE. MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING WEATHER SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKS...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DAILY (MOSTLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING). CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYS...THE BEST CHC ARE TIED TO WHEN THE BEST SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES...AND MODELS DO POORLY RESOLVING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. GENERALLY A CONTINUITY FCST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HELP
PRODUCE A CLEANER LOOKING MAP WHEN LOOKING AT NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HIGHS TUE-FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S (SOUTH) AND UPPER 50S T0 MID 60S (NORTH).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING MAINLY PA AND N
3/4 NJ SHOULD THIN MIDDAY AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN
THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE
REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-
02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
TONIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW PROB OF
A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD
BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
DURING THE MID-WEEK MAY BRING NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY WED. LOW
CONFID IN THIS ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY BACK TO A WASHINGTON
DC OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK CLOUDINESS NOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY
15Z THEN MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
07Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ BETWEN 12Z-15Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ. OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WHERE IT RAINS BUT THATS THE UNKNOWN
ATTM.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE IS A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WHEN SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW UPPER
FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND
NRN NJ FOR NOW WITH SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF THIS ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND ERN NJ. TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SUN LIKELY THE WARMER DAY. HIGHS ON MON
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BE OFF THE COAST TUE. MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING WEATHER SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKS...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DAILY (MOSTLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING). CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYS...THE BEST CHC ARE TIED TO WHEN THE BEST SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES...AND MODELS DO POORLY RESOLVING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. GENERALLY A CONTINUITY FCST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HELP
PRODUCE A CLEANER LOOKING MAP WHEN LOOKING AT NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HIGHS TUE-FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S (SOUTH) AND UPPER 50S T0 MID 60S (NORTH).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING MAINLY PA AND N
3/4 NJ SHOULD THIN MIDDAY AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN
THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE
REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-
02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
TONIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW PROB OF
A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD
BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
DURING THE MID-WEEK MAY BRING NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY WED. LOW
CONFID IN THIS ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE TO A WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WX OCNL CIRRUS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN THE NAM MODELED MID
DECK SLIDING SEWD THRU N PA WILL ARRIVE IN PTNS OF E PA BETWEEN
09Z-11Z. THE NAM AT 06Z WAS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THIS MID DECK
CLOUD THAN THE GFS.
THE MID DECK OVERSPREADS MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY 15Z THEN
MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
03Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ AROUND 12Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE IS A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WHEN SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW UPPER
FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND
NRN NJ FOR NOW WITH SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF THIS ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND ERN NJ. TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SUN LIKELY THE WARMER DAY. HIGHS ON MON
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BE OFF THE COAST TUE. MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING WEATHER SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKS...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DAILY (MOSTLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING). CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYS...THE BEST CHC ARE TIED TO WHEN THE BEST SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES...AND MODELS DO POORLY RESOLVING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. GENERALLY A CONTINUITY FCST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HELP
PRODUCE A CLEANER LOOKING MAP WHEN LOOKING AT NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HIGHS TUE-FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S (SOUTH) AND UPPER 50S T0 MID 60S (NORTH).
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. CIRRUS. SCT-BKN DECK OF AC AOA 8000 FT WILL DEVELOP
SEWD AND ARRIVE BETWEEN 09Z-11Z IN E PA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING SHOULD THIN MIDDAY
AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING
SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED
NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW
PROB OF A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER
FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD
BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
DURING THE MID-WEEK MAY BRING NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY WED. LOW
CONFID IN THIS ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG
MARINE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
253 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE TO A WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
FAIR WX OCNL CIRRUS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN THE NAM MODELED MID
DECK SLIDING SEWD THRU N PA WILL ARRIVE IN PTNS OF E PA BETWEEN
09Z-11Z. THE NAM AT 06Z WAS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THIS MID DECK
CLOUD THAN THE GFS.
THE MID DECK OVERSPREADS MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY 15Z THEN
MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
03Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ AROUND 12Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE WX DURG THE EXTENDD PD.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND EXPECT A
HOT AND GENLY DRY DAY FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
WITH THESE KIND OF DAYS IN THE SUMMER, SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ATTM THERE ARE NO SIG FEATURES MOVG ACRS
TO ACT AS A FOCUS OF CONVECTION, SO OVERALL POPS SHOULD BE LOW.
THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY
AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A STRONG CDFNT EXTEND SWD ACRS THE
MIDWEST FROM A LOW NR HUDSON BAY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EWD. THIS
CDFNT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY
AND POPS WILL RISE THRU THE DAY AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PD ATTM WITH THE FROPA AND PSBLY
A LOW FORMING ALG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURG THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO FURTHER DO SO IN SUBSEQUENT
FCSTS.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE,
BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING TROUGHINESS AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. CIRRUS. SCT-BKN DECK OF AC AOA 8000 FT WILL DEVELOP
SEWD AND ARRIVE BETWEEN 09Z-11Z IN E PA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING SHOULD THIN MIDDAY
AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING
SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED
NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW
PROB OF A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER
FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. OVERALL
POPS ARE LOW.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY WEST OF KPHL, IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DURG THE EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY NIGHT AS
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
SOME RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE START OF THE
PD AND EXPECT SUB ADVISORY CONDS THRU ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN E TO
SELY AND EVENTUALLY SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ASA CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE MIDWEST. BY LATER TUE OR WED SEAS WILL RESPOND AND AT
SOME POINT DUR THIS TIME FRAME SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 9 2012
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
We have issued a Flash Flood Watch for Walton, Holmes, Washington,
and Bay Counties in the Florida Panhandle, valid until 19z Sunday.
The last several runs of the RAP have consistently indicated that
850mb moisture transport vectors will be increasing in magnitude
in the next few hours, and focusing into the aforementioned zones.
Earlier today, thunderstorm activity was focused near the coast to
the west of us (around PNS and MOB) - anchored in place near the
nose of low-level moisture transport maximum and in the coastal
convergence zone. Abundant moisture (analyzed and GOES-satellite
observed PWATS around 2.1-2.2") and high freezing levels and WBZ
heights should lead to highly efficient thunderstorms and rain
bands. If things continue to progress as they have all day, we may
start seeing heavier rain rates persist near or south of I-10 from
Panama City west in the 21-03z timeframe (next 6 hrs).
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Radar indicates sct shwrs and isold storms over land. It also shows
a large area of rain with embedded storms over waters will onshore
SW-NE later today into tonight. A few of these marine storms may
generate a brief waterspout or a tornado.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted in Nrn stream by
trough over Wrn states, ridge over Cntrl and Ern states and trough
across extreme Wrn Atlc. Srn stream highlighted by weak troughing
West Coast and Desert SW, ridging Srn Plains, trough/low over Wrn
Gulf and ridge over Ern states to extreme Wrn Atlc. Of particular
local concern is upper low that continues to spin over the upper TX
coast/Wrn Gulf of Mex. Ahead of this low, WAA/moisture transport
will increase thru the period as a very moist S/SW flow continues to
spread plume of deep layer Gulf moisture N/NE across the Gulf. The
12Z KTAE sounding showed the PW was 2.10 inches.
Low is forecast to open up into a short wave trough towards LWR MS
Valley beginning tonight while weak H5 impulse slowly meanders NEWD.
Both begin phasing with energy moving Ewd across the Nrn Plains Sun
night. System then inches slowly EWD into OH Valley and weakens
some further phasing with energy moving ewd over Mid MS Valley and
upper Midwest on Monday with trough axis from TN Valley to over our
extreme WRN zones by afternoon with an enhancement of deep onshore
flow downstream of system. On Tues, trough axis lifts NEWD with
axis across extreme NE Gulf states with deeper moisture lifting
accordingly before axis exits to adjacent Atlc before sundown.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
The local area remains between high centered off the Carolina coast
with ridge swd along Ern seaboard down to Cuba and a trough of low
pressure over the WRN Gulf. A quasi-stationary front extends W-E
from low TX/LA coast ESE across N FL. These features are acting
in concert to pull moisture rich tropical air northward into the
region. The low level flow/WAA will continue to strengthen is
association with above elongating upper low/trough and the short
term promises to be a washout.
The front is expected to lift WNW-ESE and N of FL/GA/AL line
overnight with increasing CWA in warm sector. Abundant moisture and
lift will continue to generate numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms, especially over the Panhandle and adjacent waters.
Beyond tonight, the warm front will pivot progressively NNE of the
area becoming increasingly absorbed by synoptic scale SLY flow. On
Monday into Tuesday, frontal remnant lifts into S/Cntrl GA and
weakens as it comes into contact with sagging SE High and POPs begin
to slowly decrease from S-N. Still, CWA remains on E or wet side of
upper trough axis with high PWATS. i.e. Panama City GFS model
sounding shows above 2 inches of PWAT until Mon morning and over
1.75 inches thru Tues. New HI RES guidance keeps us socked in thru
its total run of 36hrs. So high POPs and locally heavy rainfall a
good bet thru period. Mid-Level lapse rates/shear will not be
impressive during these periods. Nevertheless, with high CAPE values
and moist low boundary layer and enhanced low level shear near warm
front may support low level storm rotation. So we could see isolated
strong to severe storms with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
waterspout tonight into Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)...
NAM run not available so forecast focused on GFS model.
Tonight...Very moist air aided by isentropic lift with PW well over
2 inches is forecast to push north across the region as the boundary
gradually lifts north as a warm front. The deep layer trough to the
west will drift slowly northeast and there will be some DPVA to
enhance lift as well. 70-50% NW-SE POP gradient. Widespread 1 to 2
inch rainfall totals are forecast thru sunrise. Highest rainfall
totals are expected to be south and west of Tallahassee. Because the
large area of rain is likely to be ongoing along and north of the
front, any supercells that develop will probably become quickly
elevated as they move inland, greatly reducing the tornado threat
inland. CWA will be monitored in case a flood watch is necessary.
Lows around 70.
Sunday...80-50% NW-SE POP gradient. We are still seeing a swell
component in the buoy data and there have been a couple of
fatalities in the surf this week. With the beach agencies continuing
to report hazardous conditions, a high risk of rip currents remains
possible. Highs mid-upper 80s.
Monday...60-30% N-SE POP gradient daytime, 50-30% at night. Highs 85
coast to 90 S/Cntrl Ga. Lows around 70 inland to mid 70s coast.
Tuesday...50-40% N-SE POP gradient. Highs upper 80s coast to 90
inland.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through next Saturday)...
The extended range forecast is based heavily on the ECMWF. POPs will
be a concern for the entirety of the long term as a frontal boundary
approaches the forecast area and then stalls out. This will bring
rainy conditions with a chance of thunderstorms each day.
&&
.MARINE...
The gradient is forecast to remain tight with local area in between
ridging along east coast and low over wrn gulf. this low is forecast
to build north and tighten local gradient. Winds and seas are
expected to reach exercise caution levels west of Apalachicola into
Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will build over the waters early
next week allowing winds and seas to return to more seasonable
levels. The onshore winds will veer to the west by Wednesday as a
front approaches from the north.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Blend of GFS/EURO AND UKMET show widespread 1 to 2.5
inches with isold 4 inches thru 24 hrs. Expect total event rainfall
totals to range from 2 to 4 inches areawide with locally higher
amounts possible. A widespread flooding event is not anticipated,
however urban areas may experience minor flooding over the next few
days. Still there is a possibility that locations especially along
the FL Panhandle could get multiple rounds of heavy rain where the
best threat of flooding is expected and this area will be closely
monitored.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are likely across the area as a warm front lifts
northward and brings moist tropical conditions into the area. Rain
with some embedded thunder is expected to affect all TAF sites at
various points through the period. Brief reductions to IFR are
expected with any thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag criteria will not be met over the next week as relative
humidity values remain well above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 88 73 90 72 / 70 70 40 50 40
Panama City 73 85 75 85 74 / 70 70 40 50 40
Dothan 71 85 72 86 71 / 70 80 50 60 40
Albany 71 86 71 87 71 / 70 70 60 60 50
Valdosta 70 88 71 90 71 / 60 60 50 50 30
Cross City 72 89 72 90 71 / 50 50 30 30 30
Apalachicola 73 85 76 85 75 / 70 70 30 40 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Walton-South Walton-
Washington.
High Risk Rip Currents through Sunday afternoon for coastal
Walton and coastal Bay Counties.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale Update...Lamers
Synopsis & Short Term...Block
Long Term...Harrigan/LV
Aviation...DVD
Marine...Block
Fire Weather...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.AVIATION...HEAVY CLOUD COVER EARLIER THIS MORNING HELD BACK
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND TCU JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS S
FL AT 17Z. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE ALSO BECOME LESS CONFIDENT OF
CONVECTION INITIATION PRIOR TO AROUND 18-19Z SO DELAYED VCTS IN
THE TAFS FOR THESE REASONS. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF THEM FOR THE
KTMB TERMINAL AS THE CELLS SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND COULD EVEN BE NORTH OF THE KMIA AND KOPF TERMINALS.
LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00-01Z THIS EVENING.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARING UP AGAIN WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AS WELL
SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SOME -RA PSBL E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z BUT VFR CONDS
XPCTD. BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND
AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FM KFLL TO KPBI. ONLY VCTS
IN ALL E COAST TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT
14Z SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF BUT VCSH NOT IN TAFS ATTM. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP AFT
16Z SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND E < 10 KTS
BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND 10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SVR WX ON THE W COAST DELAYED THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
WEAKENING SHRA/TSRA MOVG E ACRS THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL BRING
SHRA TO THE E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z. SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL.
AFT 14Z WDSPRD VFR CONDS XPCTD BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE
INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS. ONLY
VCTS IN TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT 14Z
SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF THRU 12Z. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL
REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND SE ARND 10 KTS BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND
10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING
A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT
ACROSS THE REGION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS AREA OF
STORMS...AND THEN TREND SEEMS TO BE DOWN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL GET PUSHED TO
THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO PUSH EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING IN ITS
WAKE. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STABILIZE
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY FORCE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS SET UP. KEPT HIGHER
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS MOVING
EAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO COLLIDED AND LOW END CHANCE FOR
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 591-592 DAM. THIS WILL IMPART
A TRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...AND HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
105 TO 110F IN COLLIER COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AS IT SLIDES TOWARDS FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO
MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR
LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 88 76 87 / 30 30 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 77 88 / 30 30 10 10
MIAMI 78 90 77 89 / 30 30 10 10
NAPLES 77 91 76 92 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARING UP AGAIN WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AS WELL
SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SOME -RA PSBL E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z BUT VFR CONDS
XPCTD. BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND
AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FM KFLL TO KPBI. ONLY VCTS
IN ALL E COAST TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT
14Z SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF BUT VCSH NOT IN TAFS ATTM. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP AFT
16Z SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND E < 10 KTS
BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND 10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SVR WX ON THE W COAST DELAYED THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
WEAKENING SHRA/TSRA MOVG E ACRS THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL BRING
SHRA TO THE E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z. SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL.
AFT 14Z WDSPRD VFR CONDS XPCTD BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE
INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS. ONLY
VCTS IN TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT 14Z
SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF THRU 12Z. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL
REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND SE ARND 10 KTS BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND
10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING
A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT
ACROSS THE REGION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS AREA OF
STORMS...AND THEN TREND SEEMS TO BE DOWN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL GET PUSHED TO
THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO PUSH EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING IN ITS
WAKE. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STABILIZE
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY FORCE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS SET UP. KEPT HIGHER
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS MOVING
EAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO COLLIDED AND LOW END CHANCE FOR
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 591-592 DAM. THIS WILL IMPART
A TRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...AND HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
105 TO 110F IN COLLIER COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AS IT SLIDES TOWARDS FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO
MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR
LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 88 76 / 50 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 89 77 / 30 30 30 10
MIAMI 90 78 90 77 / 30 30 30 10
NAPLES 89 77 91 76 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
929 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ARRIVAL TIMING OF POPS FOR MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PWAT AIR...AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR...IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IN SOUTHWEST IL THIS EVE HAS HELPED TO SPREAD THIS NORTH CAUSING
AN EXPANSION IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR WITH
GOING FORECAST. LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KIND RADAR ARE INDICATIVE OF
GRADUAL MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND SATURATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW. SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FORECASTS KEEP ALMOST ALL
OF THIS ENTIRELY EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
THE FEATURE WHICH WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA IS A WELL-
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S. HIGH PLAINS
BORDER. IMPRESSIVE NORTH-TO-SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO NORTHEAST KS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE COOL FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AND WITHIN
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THETA-E RETURN. THE FRONT AND CONVECTION
AHEAD OF IT WILL EVOLVE EAST INTO OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GRADUALLY
TAPERING IN INTENSITY AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN MO. A PORTION OF THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND THE HRRR SOLUTION
DEPICTS THIS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TOO GENEROUS ON DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET/WAA.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND KS HELPING TO
DRIVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN MOST GUIDANCE...AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. COLLOCATED WITH THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AT LEAST IN THE 925-700MB FLOW...WHICH HELPS IN FOCUSING
SOME OF THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE SIMILAR ON
THE 11.00 NAM TO THOSE MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSION...SO SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION REGENERATING IN COVERAGE DURING THE MIDDAY
TIME IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF TIMING/REASONING. AFTERNOON POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM CDT
FOCUS OF FORECAST IS ON RAIN CHANCES MON AND MON EVE WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEN ON THE VERY LOW...IF
ANY...PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEASTERN MT HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME SHEARED/ELONGATED TODAY...SLOWING ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS A RESULT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT HAVE ALSO BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH ANY VIGOR.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW IS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE AND JET MAX DIG SSE FROM THE YUKON-NW
TERRITORIES BORDER TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT BY 12Z MON.
THIS SHORT WAVE AND SPEED MAX ARE THEN PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY MON. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LINGERING ACROSS NW AND W CENTRAL MN AND FAR SE SD AND NE NE...
WILL ALSO START TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY
BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO SE WI AND NE IL EARLY MON
EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING OR SOON AFTER PEAK HEATING LEADS TO IT OCCURRING WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP
INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT AND MON.
HOWEVER...IF 10.12Z RUN OF GFS VERIFIES WITH THE LAYER FROM 2 TO 4K
FT AGL SOME 3-4 DEG C WARMER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION DURING THE DAY
MON THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INHIBITED BY THE WARMTH ALOFT MAINTAINING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CIN
AND CAPPING AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z MON. NAM HAS MINIMAL CIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THE QPF AND MOS POP VALUES ARE FLIPPED FROM WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT
IS...THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF WHILE THE NAM GENERATES
SOME SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO N CENTRAL IL BOTH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...WITH MOS POPS IN
LOWER END OF CHANCE CATEGORY AND GFS AT HIGH END. HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR MON THOUGH STILL LEFT AT VERY LOW END OF LIKELY WITH
55-60 PCT ACROSS THE FA.
ZONAL FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
BY TUE...AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY WED BRINGING
MILDER AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A MINOR SHORT WAVE
TO TRAVERSE THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
WED NIGHT AND THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STILL HAVE ITS AXIS FROM QUEBEC SW BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD PLACE
ANY THREAT OF RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N OF THE FA.
UPPER RIDGING TO PUSH BACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THU AND FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER FAR WESTERN
NOAM. AFTER MAX TEMPS COOL TO THE 70S FOR A COUPLE DAYS AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
FRI AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE COOLER FROM TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWS NNE FLOW TO TURN IN
OFF OF THE LAKE TUE AND THEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PROVIDES E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE FROM WED ON. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO KEEP AREA
RAIN-FREE TUE THROUGH SAT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN N CENTRAL IL
ON SUN.
WITH THE AREA NOT SEEING ANY LET ALONE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE
THE END OF MAY ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH
COLD FRONT WILL SEE MUCH GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS AS NO ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
TRS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
317 PM CDT
WINDS AND RH VALUES APPROACHING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
* SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL MONDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OMAHA AREA AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTH WINDS
PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST...GUSTING ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNSET AS INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH DIURNAL COOLING...WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 1O KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY MONDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE MONDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HOWEVER...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL WAVE AND
GREATEST NEAR-SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS
MODELS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE AND WILL MAINTAIN SOME THREAT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH IT APPEARS DECREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
BEYOND MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
EXCEPT DIRECTLY WITHIN IN SHRA/TSRA.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO TERMINALS DURING MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA MONDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
202 PM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LOW AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE 15-25KTS IS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND AS THE HIGH SPREADS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A LAKE
BREEZE TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
930 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
929 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ARRIVAL TIMING OF POPS FOR MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PWAT AIR...AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR...IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IN SOUTHWEST IL THIS EVE HAS HELPED TO SPREAD THIS NORTH CAUSING
AN EXPANSION IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR WITH
GOING FORECAST. LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KIND RADAR ARE INDICATIVE OF
GRADUAL MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND SATURATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW. SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FORECASTS KEEP ALMOST ALL
OF THIS ENTIRELY EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
THE FEATURE WHICH WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA IS A WELL-
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S. HIGH PLAINS
BORDER. IMPRESSIVE NORTH-TO-SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO NORTHEAST KS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE COOL FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AND WITHIN
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THETA-E RETURN. THE FRONT AND CONVECTION
AHEAD OF IT WILL EVOLVE EAST INTO OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GRADUALLY
TAPERING IN INTENSITY AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN MO. A PORTION OF THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND THE HRRR SOLUTION
DEPICTS THIS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TOO GENEROUS ON DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET/WAA.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND KS HELPING TO
DRIVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN MOST GUIDANCE...AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. COLLOCATED WITH THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AT LEAST IN THE 925-700MB FLOW...WHICH HELPS IN FOCUSING
SOME OF THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE SIMILAR ON
THE 11.00 NAM TO THOSE MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSION...SO SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION REGENERATING IN COVERAGE DURING THE MIDDAY
TIME IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF TIMING/REASONING. AFTERNOON POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM CDT
FOCUS OF FORECAST IS ON RAIN CHANCES MON AND MON EVE WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEN ON THE VERY LOW...IF
ANY...PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEASTERN MT HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME SHEARED/ELONGATED TODAY...SLOWING ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS A RESULT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT HAVE ALSO BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH ANY VIGOR.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW IS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE AND JET MAX DIG SSE FROM THE YUKON-NW
TERRITORIES BORDER TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT BY 12Z MON.
THIS SHORT WAVE AND SPEED MAX ARE THEN PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY MON. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LINGERING ACROSS NW AND W CENTRAL MN AND FAR SE SD AND NE NE...
WILL ALSO START TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY
BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO SE WI AND NE IL EARLY MON
EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING OR SOON AFTER PEAK HEATING LEADS TO IT OCCURRING WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP
INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT AND MON.
HOWEVER...IF 10.12Z RUN OF GFS VERIFIES WITH THE LAYER FROM 2 TO 4K
FT AGL SOME 3-4 DEG C WARMER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION DURING THE DAY
MON THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INHIBITED BY THE WARMTH ALOFT MAINTAINING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CIN
AND CAPPING AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z MON. NAM HAS MINIMAL CIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THE QPF AND MOS POP VALUES ARE FLIPPED FROM WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT
IS...THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF WHILE THE NAM GENERATES
SOME SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO N CENTRAL IL BOTH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...WITH MOS POPS IN
LOWER END OF CHANCE CATEGORY AND GFS AT HIGH END. HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR MON THOUGH STILL LEFT AT VERY LOW END OF LIKELY WITH
55-60 PCT ACROSS THE FA.
ZONAL FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
BY TUE...AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY WED BRINGING
MILDER AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A MINOR SHORT WAVE
TO TRAVERSE THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
WED NIGHT AND THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STILL HAVE ITS AXIS FROM QUEBEC SW BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD PLACE
ANY THREAT OF RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N OF THE FA.
UPPER RIDGING TO PUSH BACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THU AND FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER FAR WESTERN
NOAM. AFTER MAX TEMPS COOL TO THE 70S FOR A COUPLE DAYS AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
FRI AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE COOLER FROM TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWS NNE FLOW TO TURN IN
OFF OF THE LAKE TUE AND THEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PROVIDES E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE FROM WED ON. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO KEEP AREA
RAIN-FREE TUE THROUGH SAT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN N CENTRAL IL
ON SUN.
WITH THE AREA NOT SEEING ANY LET ALONE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE
THE END OF MAY ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH
COLD FRONT WILL SEE MUCH GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS AS NO ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
TRS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
317 PM CDT
WINDS AND RH VALUES APPROACHING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
* SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL MONDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OMAHA AREA AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTH WINDS
PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST...GUSTING ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNSET AS INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH DIURNAL COOLING...WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 1O KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY MONDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE MONDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HOWEVER...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TROUGH
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL WAVE AND
GREATEST NEAR-SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS
MODELS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE AND WILL MAINTAIN SOME THREAT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH IT APPEARS DECREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
BEYOND MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
EXCEPT DIRECTLY WITHIN IN SHRA/TSRA.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO TERMINALS DURING MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA MONDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
202 PM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LOW AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE 15-25KTS IS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND AS THE HIGH SPREADS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A LAKE
BREEZE TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT
OUR AREA ON MONDAY WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ORGANIZING ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SEEMS TO BE GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY ACRS SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO SE NEBRASKA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WAS MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL
PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THRU IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AS IT TRACKS TO EXTREME EASTERN IOWA AND NE MISSOURI TOWARDS
300 AM...AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IL JUST BEFORE DAWN.
THE 00Z ILX AND SGF SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH OUR AREAS IN BETWEEN THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOURCES...WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER WAVE MAINLY ACRS THE EAST AND SE SECTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LOCATED IN A NARROW SW-NE CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE BETTER INSTABILITY FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS WAS LOCATED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO EASTERN KS AND NW MO WHERE SURFACE
BASE CAPES WERE IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/JG OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER STARTING TO ERODE THANKS TO THE INCREASING
SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND JET DYNAMICS. PROPAGATION VECTORS
SUGGEST THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY START TO TURN SE INTO
PARTS OF NW MO AND NE KS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CONVECTION WEAKENS SOME AS IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST.
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO DOES NOT BODE WELL WITH RESPECT TO SEEING SOME
DECENT RAINFALL ACRS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH ACRS WESTERN IL DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY REDEVELOP
ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL AS ANY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DESPITE
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SEEN ON MODELS...NEVER THE LESS...WE SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY BUT THIS CERTAINLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...SO OTHER
THAN THE USUAL EARLY EVENING TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED...AS A RESULT NO ZONE
UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA
ALONG A COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION TO JUST WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 09Z IN A WEAKENING STATE. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO PIA AND SPI BY 12Z BUT THE AIRMASS THIS
FAR EAST IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE LINE HOLDING MUCH PAST EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
IN THE TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTR
09Z BUT THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME SO WILL
HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANY MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING.
WITH RESPECT TO THE IOWA STORMS LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WILL HOLD
ON TO THE VCTS AND A CB GROUP FOR THE MID MORNING HOURS AND BEYOND
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTN WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT FOR WDLY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR
RAIN SHOULD END BY 02Z AT CMI AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST.
SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE SE AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND THEN
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP ARE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT...THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS TONIGHT...GENERALLY STAYING EAST OF ILLINOIS. HIGH-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ARE KEEPING THE KILX CWA DRY...HOWEVER
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE COMING SO CLOSE TO THE E/SE...HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF I-57 TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE VALUES OF 1500
TO 2500J/KG. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LACK OF WIND SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND VERY WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 25KT.
DESPITE LACK OF SHEAR...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND GOOD CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. PRIMARY TIME FRAME
WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55...AND
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY EXIT
INTO INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAWN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
12 TO 14C RANGE...HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST. EXACT EVOLUTION AND
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FEATURED ON EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. 12Z 10 JUN GFS IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPS A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED PERHAPS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACHIEVED.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
615 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP ARE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT...THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS TONIGHT...GENERALLY STAYING EAST OF ILLINOIS. HIGH-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ARE KEEPING THE KILX CWA DRY...HOWEVER
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE COMING SO CLOSE TO THE E/SE...HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF I-57 TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE VALUES OF 1500
TO 2500J/KG. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LACK OF WIND SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND VERY WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 25KT.
DESPITE LACK OF SHEAR...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND GOOD CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. PRIMARY TIME FRAME
WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55...AND
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY EXIT
INTO INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAWN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
12 TO 14C RANGE...HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST. EXACT EVOLUTION AND
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FEATURED ON EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. 12Z 10 JUN GFS IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPS A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED PERHAPS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACHIEVED.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA
ALONG A COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION TO JUST WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 09Z IN A WEAKENING STATE. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO PIA AND SPI BY 12Z BUT THE AIRMASS THIS
FAR EAST IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE LINE HOLDING MUCH PAST EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
IN THE TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTR
09Z BUT THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME SO WILL
HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANY MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING.
WITH RESPECT TO THE IOWA STORMS LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WILL HOLD
ON TO THE VCTS AND A CB GROUP FOR THE MID MORNING HOURS AND BEYOND
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTN WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT FOR WDLY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR
RAIN SHOULD END BY 02Z AT CMI AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST.
SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE SE AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND THEN
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING
SOME RAIN TO THE AREA...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN AND DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT 01Z.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE TO MAKE SOME REFINEMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SUPPORTED BY MOST RECENT SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE. GREATER COVERAGE TO RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTH INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA
CURRENTLY. RAP APPEARS TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY WELL THIS
EVENING...TRACKING IT N/NE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP LATE. DROPPED BACK TO LOW CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO REMOVED
ISOLATED THUNDER FROM ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH ONLY
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE VALUES PRESENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PRECIP SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND STANDS OUT...SO WENT CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF.
UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LOW END
LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THUS WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THEN TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING. THUS AGAIN ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
ON MONDAY AS NOTED ABOVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
DURING THE DAY. STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEPICT A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THEREFORE...REMOVED ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND CONTINUED WITH AN ENTIRELY DRY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO
RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
IN...PROBABLY FALLING BELOW 050 SOMETIME AFTER 110600Z. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 110900Z AS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. LIFT APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND MAIN
RIBBON OF 850MB FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
DON/T THINK ANY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...THREAT OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEAR THE TAF SITES LOOKS
RATHER LOW.
LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS MIXING ENDS WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....HOMANN/50
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING
SOME RAIN TO THE AREA...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN AND DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT 01Z.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE TO MAKE SOME REFINEMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SUPPORTED BY MOST RECENT SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE. GREATER COVERAGE TO RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTH INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA
CURRENTLY. RAP APPEARS TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY WELL THIS
EVENING...TRACKING IT N/NE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP LATE. DROPPED BACK TO LOW CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO REMOVED
ISOLATED THUNDER FROM ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH ONLY
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE VALUES PRESENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PRECIP SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND STANDS OUT...SO WENT CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF.
UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LOW END
LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THUS WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THEN TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING. THUS AGAIN ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
ON MONDAY AS NOTED ABOVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
DURING THE DAY. STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEPICT A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THEREFORE...REMOVED ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND CONTINUED WITH AN ENTIRELY DRY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO
RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
IN...PROBABLY FALLING BELOW 050 SOMETIME AFTER 110600Z. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 110900Z AS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. LIFT APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND MAIN
RIBBON OF 850MB FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
DON/T THINK ANY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...THREAT OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEAR THE TAF SITES LOOKS
RATHER LOW.
LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS MIXING ENDS WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....HOMANN/50
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1037 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LATEST NAM AND RUC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY BE
DUE TO THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING (DRYING) FLOW. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...MUCH OF THE AREA MAY GET ROBBED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY NOT FEEL THIS INFLUENCE
AS MUCH WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THE NAM DEPICTION OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ACROSS
OUR NORTH SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT AND THESE WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
BEYOND. AGAIN...NOT SURE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO
THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED AS IT TOO COULD FALL APART AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. REGARDLESS...STILL A BIT OF A CHANCE WE
COULD END UP STAYING DRY IN SEVERAL AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
PERHAPS WELL INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LOOKING AT ALL AVENUES IN WHICH WE COULD ACHIEVE THUNDER TONIGHT CAME
BACK NEGATIVE. LIFTING PARCELS FROM MANY DIFFERENT LEVELS COULD NOT
GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THUNDER LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
ANTICIPATING NEW DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO MORE
RAIN SHOWERS. IT WOULD TAKE SOME PRETTY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO GET
MOISTURE ABOVE THE VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...THUS...FEEL SAFE
REMOVING THUNDER. STILL NOT CONFIDENT TO GO ANY HIGHER WITH
POPS...BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER WITH A LATER UPDATE IF THINGS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO WAIT
AND SEE AND STICK WITH OUR 60 TO 70 POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER AROUND 1 OR 2
AM...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING THE I-64 CORRIDOR BY 4 OR 5
AM...AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AROUND DAYBREAK. AFTER THE INITIAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN...IT APPEARS WE COULD DRY OUT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE TOMORROW MORNING...LEADING TO A DRIER PERIOD DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THEN WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO
REFIRE THINGS IN THE AFTERNOON IF WE DON`T HAVE TOO MANY CLOUDS
AROUND TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS...STILL
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS SWIRLING AROUND TOMORROW`S FORECAST. GOING TO
HOLD OFF TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AS MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SPRINKLES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY FOR THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE AROUND 5KFT...SO I
IMAGINE A FEW DROPS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST FORCING WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE TARGETED AREAS EARLY...WILL BE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER WITH THE THREAT FOR RAIN PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. DOWNSLOPING MAY KEEP INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE FORCING
SHOULD WIN OUT. LOWER CLOUD DECK HAS BROUGHT SOME EARLIER COOLING
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRACE TO REFLECT THIS EARLIER COOLING. NO NEED TO UPDATE ZONES WITH
ANY OF THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND OCCLUDING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...LINKED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE PLAINS. ALOFT...PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN FEEDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW-
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE GULF COAST FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...A MORE STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SCOURING OUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS TRIED TO MAKE IT IN FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED THUS FAR. THIS TREND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE GULF WAVE
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS IT GETS GRADUALLY INGESTED INTO THE MAIN WESTERLIES BY THE MORE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODEST FORCING.
DESPITE VERY HIGH PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HAS BEEN
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION WITH SO
MUCH CLOUD COVER...SO AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
REALIZED. STILL...WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN IN PLACE...IT CERTAINLY
CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS AT 500 MB WITH RIDGING TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHILE STUBBORN
TROUGHINESS HANGS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BRING THE EARLY WEEK RAINS WILL BE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BROAD...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND OUR DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE PRECIP FREE FOR MOST FOLKS AS A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND PWATS ONLY REBOUND TO AROUND AN INCH SO
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE QPF...AT LEAST ON THIS SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE. AS SUCH...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
TO JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG THE TN AND VA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY SNEAK INTO THE 50S MOST NIGHTS IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
CONDITIONS WILL START VFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE
EATEN AWAY BY SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING LOWERING CEILINGS AND EVENTUALLY THE THREAT OF
SOME MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT THIS
TIME...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD PERSIST AND KEEP THEM OUT MUCH
LONGER. HOWEVER...THESE LOWER CIGS COULD MAKE SOME HEAD WAY INTO THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK...SO WILL BRING SOME MVFR CIGS INTO KSME
AND KLOZ TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND HOLD OFF AT KJKL WITH JUST A LOW
SCATTERED DECK. GOING TO COVER MUCH OF TOMORROW WITH VCTS...AS THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE AT KSME AS THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTING BY ANY DOWNSLOPING AND MAY BE UNDER THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE
FURTHER EAST REMAINS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...KEPT TSTMS IN THE FCST LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. LTG DETECTION
SHOWING STRIKES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDED FOG EVERYWHERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. QPF WAS ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST BUCKETS
AND BLENDING IN THE GEM AND GFS WHICH SUPPORTS 2 AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH AND EXTREME EASTERN AREAS.
PREV DISC: CONVECTION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL ONLY
AROUND 8K, SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THIS
FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BUT
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW
OVER 1 INCH SO POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASIN
AVERAGES APPEARS TO BE AROUND .25 ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH OVER HALF
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BUT AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY
DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BORDERING NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR MILD NIGHT NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND THEN MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS ACROSS
DOWNEAST BETWEEN 07-12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, FOG WILL KEEP VSBY BELOW 1 NM TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/KHW
MARINE...HEWITT/KHW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT, MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS, WILL BRING HIGHER
HUMIDITY MONDAY, AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FOREST COUNTY AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY PA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING BAND OF POTENTIALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE FOR NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.
PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT, LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS 6 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. HENCE
EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT CAN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS SUNDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY MAY ALSO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONCUR WITH BLEND OF RECENT SREF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT THAT
PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR, THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WIND. HOWEVER, ITS POSSIBLE THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST EAST OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DEFINITELY BE EAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND REDEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER SHOULD HOLD INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
DRYING TREND AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1224 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT, MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS, WILL BRING HIGHER
HUMIDITY MONDAY, AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FOREST COUNTY AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT.
RAP AND CONSENSUS OF SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE FOR NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE WARMING WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO BE 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL, PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. HENCE EXPECT MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY BRUSH
90 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES THAT FORECASTED LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCALES NO WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
RETURN DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL LONG TERM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST AT...OR ABOVE NORMAL
USING TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DUE TO NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SHRA OR
TSRA INTO NORTHWESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS AT
THOSE SITES IS RELATIVELY LOW. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
857 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL COME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER RECENT RAP MODEL OUTPUT, THAT SHOWED TRACK OF ANY DEVELOPING
BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST, HAVE LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO FOREST COUNTY AREA.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES
WHERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF SREF AND LATEST GFS MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WRN STATES TROF DIGS EASTWARD...EASTERN CONUS TROF WL BE AMPLIFYING FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. FURTHER MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE MAY THUS BE
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES OVR THE UPR OH DUE TO THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE NEXT CHC FOR SHRA AND TSRA IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THAT MOISTURE
AND WARMTH IMPROVES THE INSTABILITY PROFILE AND INTERACTS WITH A GFS-
NAM-PROGGED SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW.
THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING
TWEAKED...AND GENERALLY CONSISTENT GFS MOS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPR TROF AND COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
RETURN DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL LONG TERM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST AT...OR ABOVE NORMAL
USING TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A
SHRA OR TSRA INTO NORTHWESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL
KEEP MENTION OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE ON
RESTRICTIONS AT THOSE SITES IS RELATIVELY LOW.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AREA AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE EXPECTED TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO END
EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE DETERMINING TIMING FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALSO SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT/TUE. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FCST
ARE INCREASING THE CHC OF RAIN FOR MON A BIT AND LOWERING TEMPS SOME
AS A RESULT.
QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND INCREASING HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ONLY SLOWLY CRAWL TO THE EAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS
WILL HELP TO PREVENT ANY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. DEW POINTS
INCREASING TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE REMAINING UP WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS HEAD
START IN TEMPS ALONG WITH H850 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS C
WILL HELP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SUN.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
OF THE GULF COAST UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA. IT HAS BEEN
SHOWN TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON MON...HOWEVER THE 00Z EURO NOW
SHOWS THE WAVE MOVING IN BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING
PCPN IN. ALL OF THE OTHER 12Z MODELS HAVE FOLLOWED CONTINUITY WITH
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SHOW PCPN MOVING IN WITH THIS WAVE ON MON.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND
12Z MON WITH ALL OF THE MODELS...HOWEVER THE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
MAIN WAVE WILL BE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN INDIANA STILL AT 12Z.
WE WILL HOLD ON TO A DRY FCST FOR NOW FOR SUN NIGHT WITH THIS IN
MIND.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND THEN EVEN MORE MON NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SRN
LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MON. IT WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND WE ARE NOT SURE HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE ON
MON. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND CHC
OF PCPN...SO WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...SO SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT LIKELY...EVEN WITH LI/S IN THE -4 TO -6C RANGE AND OVER 1000
J/KG OF CAPE.
WE WILL THEN SEE THE FRONT MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON AND MORE
SO MON NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING ON MON. PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN...TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MON NIGHT WITH THE LIMITED DIURNAL
INSTABILITY LEFT. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WILL LAG THE FRONT A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH NO RAINFALL FORESEEN BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND TAKING THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES DESERVE MENTION OF LOW POPS DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EVERYONE WILL LIKELY HAVE DRIED OUT BY THAT
POINT. COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT 850 MB
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW THE 9C-10C RANGE...SO WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THAT SHOULD STILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 80F BY THURSDAY.
AFTER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING SLOW BUILDING OF
ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY A VARIETY OF MODELS. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB PLOT FROM 00Z REVEALS GOOD MEMBER SUPPORT
OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST...NAMELY HEIGHTS RISING BACK INTO THE
585 DM TO 590 DM RANGE FOR OUR REGION. THE 12Z GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
BULLISH BUT STILL RAISES HEIGHTS INTO THE LOW 580S. IN FACT...THE
GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT JET CORE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD DIG INTO THE DESERT SW. THIS MAY END UP
REINFORCING THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. I WOULD EXPECT HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND
TO RETURN INTO THE MID 80S AND PERHAPS WARMER.
WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SFC...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. I DON`T
SEE ANY FEATURES OF INTEREST THAT WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WAS TO BUMP UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT (MOST SITES GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS) AND ALSO TO ALTER THE
WIND DIRECTION A BIT FOR AZO AND BTL. WE NOTICED A MESOSCALE RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE GIVEN THE MORE WNW
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT AZO AND BTL VS. SSW OVER THE LAKE (THIS
IS ALSO SHOWN NICELY BY THE HRRR MODEL). THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WINDS DIVERGENT ALONG THE COAST AND THEREFORE A CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS TO THOSE TAFS (ADJUSTED UP BY 40-50
DEGREES). ASIDE FROM THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS
LITTLE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WINDS ARE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF
PENTWATER...HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THAT THE WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE
ANYMORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WAVES AT THE BUOY OFFSHORE OF
KLDM ARE HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET ALSO. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH MONDAY.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE WINDS AND
WAVES COMPARED TO LAND AREAS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH.
HAZE IS STILL VERY POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR HYDROLOGY INTERESTS WILL BE THE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RICH
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO BECOME LIKELY
DURING THAT PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE WAVE
ON MONDAY AND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ARE EACH EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. BASIN QPF AVERAGES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
GENERALLY UP TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
IT WILL BY PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 EXPECTED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL COME MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING JUST HOW WARM
IT WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY SUNDAY/MONDAY AND ALSO TO ASSESS
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS MONDAY.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ALREADY REACH WELL INTO THE 80S (EXCEPT A BIT
COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE) WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
WAA AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR REGION.
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TIED TO THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA
AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SIM Z GUIDANCE. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE
THAT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY JUST CLIP AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM PENTWATER TO MOP THIS MORNING BUT POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS
VERY LOW SO WE WENT WITH A DRY FCST.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS/MAV GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TYPICAL COOL BIAS
AND WE ARE GOING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY WILL RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS DEW PTS
RISE INTO THE 60S. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTS TO RAMP
UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES POTENTIALLY REACH 1000-2000 J/KG BY MONDAY
AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BY LATE MON AFTN
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NW FCST AREA WHEN INSTABILITY WILL PEAK ALONG
WITH FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR RAMPING
UP TO AROUND 35 KTS OVER OUR NW COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL SVR WX THREAT MON AFTN LOOKS LOW DUE TO LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND THE COLD LAKE WATERS WHICH THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE TO TRAVERSE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE NAM
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO.
KEPT THE CHANCE POPS GOING BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
LIKELY IF THE GFS AND EURO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. EXPECT THERE TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO DROPPED
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WAS TO BUMP UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT (MOST SITES GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS) AND ALSO TO ALTER THE
WIND DIRECTION A BIT FOR AZO AND BTL. WE NOTICED A MESOSCALE RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE GIVEN THE MORE WNW
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT AZO AND BTL VS. SSW OVER THE LAKE (THIS
IS ALSO SHOWN NICELY BY THE HRRR MODEL). THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WINDS DIVERGENT ALONG THE COAST AND THEREFORE A CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS TO THOSE TAFS (ADJUSTED UP BY 40-50
DEGREES). ASIDE FROM THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS
LITTLE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15
TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN BUT STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THIS WILL
CAUSE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS NORTH OF KMKG WHERE 2 TO 4 FOOTERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WAVES OF AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET
SOUTH OF MKG. WARM AIR MOVING OVER COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WAVES FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER. FOG/HAZE WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WX. THE NEXT GOOD CHC OF
RAIN WILL NOT COME UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MON NIGHT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FRONT NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH
DRY WX RETURNING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1054 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE FOR POPS. SLIGHTLY
DELAYED TO POPS ARRIVAL OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOOURI. STRONG CAP
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
AT THIS TIME. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE LOCAL LSX WRF AND HRRR IN
SOME FORM HAS THE BEST SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE NSSL-NCEP WRF
MODEL. HRRR APPEARS TO BE TO SHOW VERY STRONG REFELCTVITY
ORGANIZATION WHICH MIGHT BE SUSPECT GIVEN THE EVENING ENVIRONMENT.
LIKE THE LOCAL WRF THE BEST. STILL BELIEVE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. AS
CONVECTION GENERALLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI IT
WILL HAVE SOME PROBLEMS MAINTAIN LINE STRUCTURE DUE TO WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO EVOLVE. COMPARING CURRENT
CASE TO PREVIOUS LINE CASES THIS EVENING. LINE-TO WEAK BROAD
BOWING REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY 11 TO 13 UTC.
PRZYBYLINSKI
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(TONIGHT)
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP THE SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN BUT THE BULK
OF ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA/MS
AS IT LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SEWD
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE CWA. PCPN MAY NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD
GIVEN THE LIMITED DYNAMICS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(TONIGHT)
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP THE SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN BUT THE BULK
OF ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA/MS
AS IT LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SEWD
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE CWA. PCPN MAY NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD
GIVEN THE LIMITED DYNAMICS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED BY MONDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR N...AND WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL
THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU MAINLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HI PRES THEN DOMINATING THE REGION
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS OUR BEST CHC FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT WEEK... AND
EVEN THEN...IT ISN/T AS MUCH OF A SLAM DUNK AS ONE WOULD THINK.
WHILE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE DECENTLY RICH WITH
SFC DWPTS PUSHING 70F...H850 DWPTS BETWEEN 13-16C...AND PWATS AROUND
1.75" WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMO AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...LIFTING MECHANISMS DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD AND SCENARIOS TO BRING THIS ABOUT DEPICTED BY MODELS DO
NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE. FIRST...SYNOPTIC SETUP OF CD FROPA WILL
FEATURE /LAND-BETWEEN-THE-LOWS/ WHICH WILL FEATURE WEAK LO LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH A RAPID PUNCH OF RIDGING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK IF MODEL SIGNALS ARE CORRECT...AND IF
INCORRECT WOULD MEAN JUST MODEL NOISE. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE
EXPICIT 4KM WRF MODELS (BOTH NMM AND ARW) ARE SHOWING CDFNT AND DRY
LINE LIGHTING UP TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN PART REMAINING THE MOST
ACTIVE AND DIVING THRU SWRN MO...PUSHING AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THRU
MUCH OF THE FA BEFORE THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN IN THE FAR ERN FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS HARD TO BUY FULLY INTO THE EXPLICIT
MODELS...THE MESSAGE IS THAT OF NOT HI CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHCS AS
WELL AS KEEPING IN MIND THE ONGOING MILD-MODERATE DROUGHT IN THE
AREA. HAVE ONCE AGAIN CAPPED POPS AT 50PCT AREAWIDE AND JUST
DIFFERENTIATED IN ROUGH TIMING OF BEST CHCS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHCS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ON MONDAY...BUT
OVERALL PREFERRED THE HIGHER MET MOS NUMBERS.
SHOULD SEE DRY WX TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH ORDINARILY
ZONAL FLOW IN JUNE WOULD GIVE ONE CAUSE FOR PAUSE. LO PWATS AND HI
PRES IN CONTROL SHOULD ENSURE THAT...ALTHOUGH THE VACATING SFC HI ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY LET SOMETHING SLIP THRU WITH BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN THAT AND RETURN OF UPPER RIDGE...WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN RETURN IN FORCE THURSDAY THRU NEXT
SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN OF THE HEAT OF COURSE. HAVE MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90F GOING EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ON...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 3-4F WARMER. THERE ARE VERY
WEAK SIGNALS FOR RAIN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD BUT OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION OF A PULSE NATURE FROM
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED TO AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. PROBABILITIES ARE LO ENOUGH TO
LIMIT TO 20PCT OR LESS...AND THUS SILENT ON THE FCST. MODELS
ATTEMPT TO BREAK RIDGE DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT BY DIFFERENT
MEANS...BUT RESULT MAY BE THE SAME. HAVE EDGED BACK 30PCT CHC FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY BUT THIS IS EVEN SCALED BACK FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
SHOWING AS SOMETHING DOESN/T QUITE LOOK RIGHT ABOUT IT.
TES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING
CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BETWEEN 08-12Z
MONDAY MORNING...THO AM UNSURE OF HOW ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A LOW MVFR DECK
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...I THINK THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THERE ARE AT LEAST
AS MANY SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT AS THERE
ARE SHOWING LOWER CIGS. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY. THINK WIDELY SCATTERED-SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LAMBERT. THINK
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD AFFECT LAMBERT WON`T BE NEAR THE
TERMINAL UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING THAT A LOW MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...I THINK
THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE OVER ZEALOUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND THERE ARE AT LEAST AS MANY SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT AS THERE ARE SHOWING LOWER CIGS. THE COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY. THINK WIDELY SCATTERED-SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
706 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECASTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF CWA WEAKENED BETWEEN 2230 AND 2300 UTC. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOUNDING FROM TOP SHOWS VERY
STRONG CAP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. WEAK ISOLATED CELLS TRYING TO
DEVELOP BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. CAPE VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE BUT
CAP REMAINS STRONG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING IMPLUSE RACING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GREATEST FORCING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. NCEP AND NSSL WRF
SHOWS MCS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. LOCAL LSX WRF MODEL SHOWS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WEAKENES IT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI. THE HRRR SHOWS THE SAME TREND BUT
MAGNIFIES IT 2X TO 3X. LIKE THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AT THIS TIME. JUST A
POINT OF INTEREST ON THE WATER VAPOR THE SUBTROPIC BRANCH IS BRING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH
THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRZYBYLINSKI
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(TONIGHT)
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP THE SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN BUT THE BULK
OF ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA/MS
AS IT LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SEWD
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE CWA. PCPN MAY NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD
GIVEN THE LIMITED DYNAMICS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED BY MONDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR N...AND WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL
THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU MAINLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HI PRES THEN DOMINATING THE REGION
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS OUR BEST CHC FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT WEEK... AND
EVEN THEN...IT ISN/T AS MUCH OF A SLAM DUNK AS ONE WOULD THINK.
WHILE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE DECENTLY RICH WITH
SFC DWPTS PUSHING 70F...H850 DWPTS BETWEEN 13-16C...AND PWATS AROUND
1.75" WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMO AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...LIFTING MECHANISMS DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD AND SCENARIOS TO BRING THIS ABOUT DEPICTED BY MODELS DO
NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE. FIRST...SYNOPTIC SETUP OF CD FROPA WILL
FEATURE /LAND-BETWEEN-THE-LOWS/ WHICH WILL FEATURE WEAK LO LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH A RAPID PUNCH OF RIDGING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK IF MODEL SIGNALS ARE CORRECT...AND IF
INCORRECT WOULD MEAN JUST MODEL NOISE. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE
EXPICIT 4KM WRF MODELS (BOTH NMM AND ARW) ARE SHOWING CDFNT AND DRY
LINE LIGHTING UP TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN PART REMAINING THE MOST
ACTIVE AND DIVING THRU SWRN MO...PUSHING AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THRU
MUCH OF THE FA BEFORE THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN IN THE FAR ERN FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS HARD TO BUY FULLY INTO THE EXPLICIT
MODELS...THE MESSAGE IS THAT OF NOT HI CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHCS AS
WELL AS KEEPING IN MIND THE ONGOING MILD-MODERATE DROUGHT IN THE
AREA. HAVE ONCE AGAIN CAPPED POPS AT 50PCT AREAWIDE AND JUST
DIFFERENTIATED IN ROUGH TIMING OF BEST CHCS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHCS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ON MONDAY...BUT
OVERALL PREFERRED THE HIGHER MET MOS NUMBERS.
SHOULD SEE DRY WX TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH ORDINARILY
ZONAL FLOW IN JUNE WOULD GIVE ONE CAUSE FOR PAUSE. LO PWATS AND HI
PRES IN CONTROL SHOULD ENSURE THAT...ALTHOUGH THE VACATING SFC HI ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY LET SOMETHING SLIP THRU WITH BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN THAT AND RETURN OF UPPER RIDGE...WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN RETURN IN FORCE THURSDAY THRU NEXT
SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN OF THE HEAT OF COURSE. HAVE MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90F GOING EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ON...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 3-4F WARMER. THERE ARE VERY
WEAK SIGNALS FOR RAIN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD BUT OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION OF A PULSE NATURE FROM
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED TO AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. PROBABILITIES ARE LO ENOUGH TO
LIMIT TO 20PCT OR LESS...AND THUS SILENT ON THE FCST. MODELS
ATTEMPT TO BREAK RIDGE DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT BY DIFFERENT
MEANS...BUT RESULT MAY BE THE SAME. HAVE EDGED BACK 30PCT CHC FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY BUT THIS IS EVEN SCALED BACK FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
SHOWING AS SOMETHING DOESN/T QUITE LOOK RIGHT ABOUT IT.
TES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING
CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BETWEEN 08-12Z
MONDAY MORNING...THO AM UNSURE OF HOW ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A LOW MVFR DECK
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...I THINK THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THERE ARE AT LEAST
AS MANY SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT AS THERE
ARE SHOWING LOWER CIGS. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY. THINK WIDELY SCATTERED-SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LAMBERT. THINK
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD AFFECT LAMBERT WON`T BE NEAR THE
TERMINAL UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING THAT A LOW MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...I THINK
THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE OVER ZEALOUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND THERE ARE AT LEAST AS MANY SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE VFR
CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT AS THERE ARE SHOWING LOWER CIGS. THE COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY. THINK WIDELY SCATTERED-SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECASTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF CWA WEAKENED BETWEEN 2230 AND 2300 UTC. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOUNDING FROM TOP SHOWS VERY
STRONG CAP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. WEAK ISOLATED CELLS TRYING TO
DEVELOP BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. CAPE VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE BUT
CAP REMAINS STRONG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING IMPLUSE RACING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GREATEST FORCING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. NCEP AND NSSL WRF
SHOWS MCS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. LOCAL LSX WRF MODEL SHOWS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WEAKENES IT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI. THE HRRR SHOWS THE SAME TREND BUT
MAGNIFIES IT 2X TO 3X. LIKE THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AT THIS TIME. JUST A
POINT OF INTEREST ON THE WATER VAPOR THE SUBTROPIC BRANCH IS BRING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH
THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRZYBYLINSKI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(TONIGHT)
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP THE SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN BUT THE BULK
OF ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA/MS
AS IT LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SEWD
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE CWA. PCPN MAY NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD
GIVEN THE LIMITED DYNAMICS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED BY MONDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR N...AND WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL
THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU MAINLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HI PRES THEN DOMINATING THE REGION
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS OUR BEST CHC FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT WEEK... AND
EVEN THEN...IT ISN/T AS MUCH OF A SLAM DUNK AS ONE WOULD THINK.
WHILE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE DECENTLY RICH WITH
SFC DWPTS PUSHING 70F...H850 DWPTS BETWEEN 13-16C...AND PWATS AROUND
1.75" WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMO AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...LIFTING MECHANISMS DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD AND SCENARIOS TO BRING THIS ABOUT DEPICTED BY MODELS DO
NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE. FIRST...SYNOPTIC SETUP OF CD FROPA WILL
FEATURE /LAND-BETWEEN-THE-LOWS/ WHICH WILL FEATURE WEAK LO LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH A RAPID PUNCH OF RIDGING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK IF MODEL SIGNALS ARE CORRECT...AND IF
INCORRECT WOULD MEAN JUST MODEL NOISE. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE
EXPICIT 4KM WRF MODELS (BOTH NMM AND ARW) ARE SHOWING CDFNT AND DRY
LINE LIGHTING UP TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN PART REMAINING THE MOST
ACTIVE AND DIVING THRU SWRN MO...PUSHING AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THRU
MUCH OF THE FA BEFORE THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN IN THE FAR ERN FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS HARD TO BUY FULLY INTO THE EXPLICIT
MODELS...THE MESSAGE IS THAT OF NOT HI CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHCS AS
WELL AS KEEPING IN MIND THE ONGOING MILD-MODERATE DROUGHT IN THE
AREA. HAVE ONCE AGAIN CAPPED POPS AT 50PCT AREAWIDE AND JUST
DIFFERENTIATED IN ROUGH TIMING OF BEST CHCS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHCS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ON MONDAY...BUT
OVERALL PREFERRED THE HIGHER MET MOS NUMBERS.
SHOULD SEE DRY WX TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH ORDINARILY
ZONAL FLOW IN JUNE WOULD GIVE ONE CAUSE FOR PAUSE. LO PWATS AND HI
PRES IN CONTROL SHOULD ENSURE THAT...ALTHOUGH THE VACATING SFC HI ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY LET SOMETHING SLIP THRU WITH BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN THAT AND RETURN OF UPPER RIDGE...WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN RETURN IN FORCE THURSDAY THRU NEXT
SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN OF THE HEAT OF COURSE. HAVE MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90F GOING EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ON...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 3-4F WARMER. THERE ARE VERY
WEAK SIGNALS FOR RAIN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD BUT OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION OF A PULSE NATURE FROM
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED TO AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. PROBABILITIES ARE LO ENOUGH TO
LIMIT TO 20PCT OR LESS...AND THUS SILENT ON THE FCST. MODELS
ATTEMPT TO BREAK RIDGE DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT BY DIFFERENT
MEANS...BUT RESULT MAY BE THE SAME. HAVE EDGED BACK 30PCT CHC FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY BUT THIS IS EVEN SCALED BACK FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
SHOWING AS SOMETHING DOESN/T QUITE LOOK RIGHT ABOUT IT.
TES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
ANY ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MO/IL. VCTS GROUPS IN THE 18Z TAFS HIGHLIGHT THE
BEST WINDOW FOR TSRA AT THE TERMINALS HOWEVER FURTHER REFINEMENT
WILL BE NEEDED AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME ESTABLISHED.
SLY WINDS TURN WLY WITH FROPA THEN BECOME NWLY JUST BEYOND THE END
OF THE 24 HR TAF PD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...ANY ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KSTL. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MO/IL. VCTS GROUP IN THE 18Z TAF FOR KSTL
HIGHLIGHTS THE BEST WINDOW FOR TSRA HOWEVER FURTHER REFINEMENT
WILL BE NEEDED AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME ESTABLISHED.
SLY WINDS TURN WLY WITH FROPA THEN BECOME NWLY BEYOND THE END OF
THE 30 HR TAF PD.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
919 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
AROUND A LOW CENTERED ON THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR DANIELS AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY. THIS DRY COOL DRIER AIR IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND AREAL METARS MAPS AND WILL BEGIN STREAMING INTO PHILLIPS
AND VALLEY COUNTY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY OF THE GGW CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRODUCED FROM THE DRIER AIR ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE DRY SLOT THROUGH PETROLEUM... SOUTHERN PHILLIPS... AND GARFIELD COUNTY
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND COULD GENERATE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTIVE AND NARROW BANDS OF PRECIP IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. SKY COVER AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO MEET THIS THINKING.
WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED ALONG THE GGW/BYZ CWA BORDER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. USED HRRR AND HIRES-ARM
BLEND WITH SURFACE OBS TO FORMULATE THE WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER NEMONT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS IS CREATING WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THE WETTING RAIN IS MOVING INTO
NEMONT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. SO KEPT POPS HIGH
AROUND 90% FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT DROPPED THEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW IN MANITOBA AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN WESTERN MONTANA WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY GOING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL START TO
DECREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. FOR MONDAY SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND ALLOWING
FOR DRY WEATHER. FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AND THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE DO HAVE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ELEVATED CAPE
READING BETWEEN 300 AND 700 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3.
HIGHS WILL BE LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH READING IN THE MID
70S. SO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION... WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FULL OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE RAIN AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PATTERN SETS BACK UP OVER THE REGION. INITIALLY TUESDAY EVENING
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING INTO ND OVER A SURFACE WARM
FRONT...SO THIS WILL REQUIRE LOW POPS IN THE EAST ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD WED AFTN/EVENING AND LOOKS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MOST MODELS TAKE BULK OF ENERGY JUST TO THE NORTH...SO
WE MAY BE SPARED WORSE CONDITIONS...BUT KNOW DOUBT AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY VICINITY
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW-SE ACROSS NE MT.
BY FRIDAY THE STRONGEST PART OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BE CROSSING OR DIGGING DOWN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BUSY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. THEREAFTER MODELS START TO DIVERGE AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION REALLY PLUMMETS. NCEPS GLOBABL
ENSEMBLE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY CHARTS ALSO SHOW VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN OVER MT DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TO EXPECT A HIGHER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO HAVE
POPS BASICALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IT SEEMS LIKELY NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION IS CORRECT WE WILL
DEAL WITH AT LEAST ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE
NRN PLAINS...WHICH MAY INCLUDE PARTS OF NE MONTANA ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE ND BORDER. MOYER
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 4Z AS LARGE
UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
HAVE CAUSED TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH CEILINGS
DOWN TO 1000 FT AND VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES...BUT PREVAILING
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VFR WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL. SOME
INSTABILITY HAS LED TO A LITTLE CB ACTIVITY IN THE SYDNEY AND
GLENDIVE AREA. FOR MONDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED...BUT
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 30KTS WILL HANG ON IN THE
GLENDIVE AND SYDNEY AREAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MARTIN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR FOR FORT PECK
LAKEFORT PECK LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BILLINGS MT
908 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
THE AXIS OF A 500-HPA TROUGH IS SITUATED ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AT
02 UTC...AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. TROWAL-LIKE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEGUN DECREASING THIS EVENING AS VERTICAL
MOTION ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES DIMINISHES. THE 00 UTC NAM CONTINUES
SHOWING THAT TREND...WHICH LINES UP WITH THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND
RAP SOLUTIONS IN ADVERTISING ONLY SMALL SHOWER COVERAGE BEYOND THE
06 UTC TIME FRAME. WE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WE DID ALSO
INCREASE FORECAST WINDS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...WITH RECENT
TRENDS ACTUALLY SHOWING AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS ON PAR WITH INCREASING
500 M AGL WINDS IN THAT AREA PER THE 00 UTC NAM. THOSE WIND FIELDS
SHOW SPEEDS AROUND 35 KT IN THE BAKER AND EKALAKA AREAS UNTIL NEAR
09 UTC...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30
MPH EVEN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. SINCE THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT MIXED IN MOST AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL TOO QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH SOME BOUNCING
AROUND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUT AN OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SPEED AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE GFS THE CLOSEST WITH THE TRENDS AS IT HANDLED THIS
LAST SYSTEM BETTER THAN EC. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OFFER A LOWER
CHANCE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OPER GFS ADVERTISES AN
UPPER LOW THEN TO DIG TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND COULD OFFER UP ANOTHER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND.
SOME AMPLITUDE OF TROUGHINESS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT ABLE TO COMPLETELY BUY THIS
SOLUTION THOUGH AS EC ADVERTISING LESS AMPLIFICATION AND AFTER
FRIDAYS CONVECTION...THIS MODEL DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES TRENDS LOOKED GOOD OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
WARMEST DAYS WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST BEFORE
DECREASING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR EAST OF
KBIL TO KMLS AND BHK INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 40KTS AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/073 050/077 053/080 056/081 056/076 054/074 054/073
62/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
LVM 043/069 040/072 045/076 046/075 046/072 045/069 046/068
52/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 35/T 54/T 43/T
HDN 046/073 050/078 051/082 055/083 056/079 054/076 054/076
92/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
MLS 050/073 050/078 055/082 057/084 058/079 056/077 056/076
92/W 12/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
4BQ 047/071 048/077 052/081 056/084 057/080 055/077 055/076
62/T 22/T 32/T 21/B 33/T 34/T 43/T
BHK 047/067 045/075 051/078 057/082 058/079 057/076 057/075
73/W 12/T 32/T 21/B 34/T 44/T 43/T
SHR 046/071 045/073 049/078 051/080 052/076 050/073 050/073
32/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
858 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
THE AXIS OF A 500-HPA TROUGH IS SITUATED ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AT
02 UTC...AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. TROWAL-LIKE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEGUN DECREASING THIS EVENING AS VERTICAL
MOTION ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES DIMINISHES. THE 00 UTC NAM CONTINUES
SHOWING THAT TREND...WHICH ALSO LINES UP THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND
RAP SOLUTIONS IN ADVERTISING ONLY SMALL SHOWER COVERAGE BEYOND THE
06 UTC TIME FRAME. WE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WE DID ALSO
INCREASE FORECAST WINDS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...WITH RECENT
TRENDS ACTUALLY SHOWING AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS ON PAR WITH INCREASING
500 M AGL WINDS IN THAT AREA PER THE 00 UTC NAM. THOSE WIND FIELDS
SHOW SPEEDS AROUND 35 KT IN THE BAKER AND EKALAKA AREAS UNTIL NEAR
09 UTC...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30
MPH EVEN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. SINCE THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT MIXED IN MOST AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL TOO QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH SOME BOUNCING
AROUND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUT AN OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SPEED AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE GFS THE CLOSEST WITH THE TRENDS AS IT HANDLED THIS
LAST SYSTEM BETTER THAN EC. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OFFER A LOWER
CHANCE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OPER GFS ADVERTISES AN
UPPER LOW THEN TO DIG TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND COULD OFFER UP ANOTHER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND.
SOME AMPLITUDE OF TROUGHINESS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT ABLE TO COMPLETELY BUY THIS
SOLUTION THOUGH AS EC ADVERTISING LESS AMPLIFICATION AND AFTER
FRIDAYS CONVECTION...THIS MODEL DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES TRENDS LOOKED GOOD OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
WARMEST DAYS WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST BEFORE
DECREASING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR EAST OF
KBIL TO KMLS AND BHK INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 40KTS AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/073 050/077 053/080 056/081 056/076 054/074 054/073
62/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
LVM 043/069 040/072 045/076 046/075 046/072 045/069 046/068
52/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 35/T 54/T 43/T
HDN 046/073 050/078 051/082 055/083 056/079 054/076 054/076
92/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
MLS 050/073 050/078 055/082 057/084 058/079 056/077 056/076
92/W 12/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
4BQ 047/071 048/077 052/081 056/084 057/080 055/077 055/076
62/T 22/T 32/T 21/B 33/T 34/T 43/T
BHK 047/067 045/075 051/078 057/082 058/079 057/076 057/075
73/W 12/T 32/T 21/B 34/T 44/T 43/T
SHR 046/071 045/073 049/078 051/080 052/076 050/073 050/073
32/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1139 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STARTING TO FINALLY SEE STORMS GAINING A LITTLE MORE MOMENTUM AND
COVERAGE ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE HAD
THREE LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR AND EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THEN BE MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS MAXIMIZED
NW-SE OVER NE MONTANA. 850 MB JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND HELP TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND TRACK NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NOISY NIGHT FOR THE
AREA...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOYER
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER
LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS...
ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE
COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS
SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF GUIDANCE
HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT GROWTH OF
STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS.
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK
SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR
REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A
LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER
LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL
KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO KGGW WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
EAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN ND.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT
KGGW AND KOLF THROUGH 10Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...AND JUST SKIM KGDV AND KSDY TOWARD 08-10Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SO HAVE GONE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS
THERE. WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT...WITH
A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE EARLY MORNING AT WRN SITES BEFORE MIXING
DURING THE DAY INCREASES WINDS AGAIN. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICIINTY OF KGDV AND KSDY AFT 00Z SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MOYER
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
113 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KTS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THEN SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
TEMPS DROP. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHARP SWITCH TO NW WINDS...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE IS
OVER NW NEB.
BY MORNING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH...COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH RH VALUES NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SMALL IN
AREA...BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
BREEZY NW WINDS...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SCT025 CIGS WHICH MAY BE
UNDER DONE. LATER FORECAST WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...HOWEVER ANY
LOWER CIG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
UPDATE...
GAVE 1ST PERIOD TEMPS A BUMP EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST
WHERE IT APPEARS COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE COLD FRONT
WHICH JUST PASSED RAPID CITY AT AROUND 12Z. HRRR AND RAP DONT
HAVE THE FRONT PUNCHING THROUGH KRAP. WITH H700 MB TEMPS AROUND
14C TO 15C THIS AFTN...UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 SHOULD OPERATE
ACROSS SWRN NEB. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NCNTL WITH MID
90S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE IT/S WAY EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE WILL MIX EAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND BECOMES STATIONARY. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE DRY LINE AND SFC LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WINDS
MAY BECOME EAST AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND BECOMES
STATIONARY. THE HEAT WILL BE ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INVOF AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AND
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND HIGHS MAY BE HELD IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...BUT WINDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE THE NEXT CONCERN. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
NAM MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING T-STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /LATEST GEM
REGIONAL ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA/ INVOF OF A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THIS
AREA APPEARS QUITE PRIME FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH NOSE OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDING WITH BACKED EASTERLY SFC
FLOW AND POOLING MOISTURE. THIS POOLING MOISTURE LEADS TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER 2500 TO
3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO INCREASES DURING THE
EVENING...AS WELL AS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THE
CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE EVENING FOR STORM
INITIATION DUE TOO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
/TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THE ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS...AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF CONVECTION INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STORM
INVOF OF THE DRY LINE. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR THE SFC
LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE ADDED A
LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED MENTION IN THESE AREAS. INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM MODEL ACTUALLY SHOW
STORMS ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH SUCH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT RESIDING THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS WILL BRING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83 DURING
THE EVENING. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY STORM FIRING ON THE DRY
LINE HOLDING TOGETHER.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIR IS INDICATED
TO SWEEP EAST OFF THE ROCKIES...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AM HESITANT TO GO MUCH OVER
SLIGHT FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO
BE OVER DOING RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE OUTER PERIODS. OTHERWISE...WARM
WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER... TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CRITICAL LEVELS BELOW
15 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE (ZONE 204) AND THE FRENCHMAN
BASIN (ZONE 210). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND WILL BE
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FRENCHMAN BASIN WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BUT
LESS THAN 25 MPH. REPORTS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE THAT RECENT
RAIN HAS REDUCED THE RISK OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. THEREFORE...
THOUGH THINGS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
922 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.UPDATE...
GAVE 1ST PERIOD TEMPS A BUMP EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE
IT APPEARS COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH JUST
PASSED RAPID CITY AT AROUND 12Z. HRRR AND RAP DONT HAVE THE FRONT
PUNCHING THROUGH KRAP. WITH H700 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C TO 15C THIS
AFTN...UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 SHOULD OPERATE ACROSS SWRN NEB.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NCNTL WITH MID 90S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...
WIND WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY. BY ABOUT 15Z...WE EXPECT THE
WIND TO BE 170-190 AT 14-18G22-26KT ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN- TIF-
IML LINE. LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z...A FRONT WILL COME ACROSS A
VTN-TIF-LBF LINE AND WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST 300-320 AT
14-16G22-26KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AN ONL-BBW LINE 12-15Z
SUNDAY.
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR IML AND OGA...MARGINAL CEILINGS OF
ABOUT 1500 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY...BUT THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z ALONG AND WEST OF
A MRR-MHN-IML LINE. VERY DRY AIR IN THE SFC-600MB LAYER WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND COULD PRODUCE MICROBURST WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 45KT. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. FOR THE AREA
EAST OF THAT LINE...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CAP UPDRAFTS AND RETARD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE IT/S WAY EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE WILL MIX EAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND BECOMES STATIONARY. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE DRY LINE AND SFC LOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WINDS MAY BECOME
EAST AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INVOF AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AND INCREASE SOME THROUGH
THE DAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND
HIGHS MAY BE HELD IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S DUE TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE...BUT WINDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE THE NEXT CONCERN. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
NAM MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING T-STORM ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /LATEST GEM REGIONAL ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA/ INVOF OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THIS AREA APPEARS QUITE
PRIME FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH NOSE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COINCIDING WITH BACKED EASTERLY SFC FLOW AND POOLING MOISTURE.
THIS POOLING MOISTURE LEADS TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO
INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...AS WELL AS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DESPITE A STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARS THE CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE EVENING FOR STORM
INITIATION DUE TOO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
/TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS...AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
CONVECTION INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STORM INVOF OF THE DRY LINE.
THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR THE SFC LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESIDE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE ADDED A LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED MENTION IN
THESE AREAS. INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
NMM MODEL ACTUALLY SHOW STORMS ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH SUCH WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT RESIDING THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS WILL BRING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83 DURING THE
EVENING. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY STORM FIRING ON THE DRY LINE
HOLDING TOGETHER.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIR IS INDICATED TO SWEEP EAST OFF
THE ROCKIES...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AM
HESITANT TO GO MUCH OVER SLIGHT FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...AS
MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BE OVER DOING RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE OUTER
PERIODS. OTHERWISE...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER... TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CRITICAL LEVELS BELOW
15 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE (ZONE 204) AND THE FRENCHMAN
BASIN (ZONE 210). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND WILL BE AROUND
15 MPH IN THE FRENCHMAN BASIN WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BUT LESS THAN
25 MPH. REPORTS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE THAT RECENT RAIN HAS
REDUCED THE RISK OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. THEREFORE... THOUGH
THINGS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ROCHESTER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BINGHAMTON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SYRACUSE, ROME, ONEONTA, AND MONTECELLO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ELMIRA, TOWANDA, AND SCRANTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER...OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP POPS AND TEMPS FOR MORNING TRENDS. FRONT
LIES FROM EAST OF ROC TO BGM TO MSV AND TEMPERATURES TO THE NE ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED HANGING IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE SHOWERS ALONG AND NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE SE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND THERE
HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
70S. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TRENDS WHICH
KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN THIS MORNING. THE 06Z NAM GIVES US
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 BUT HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS SO THE LOW END OF THAT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
THE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50S WITH SOME INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MOST LIKELY
IN THE WARMER SW ZONES THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE SHOWERS REMAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE OLD SFC BNDRY LINGERING OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO
MON DESPITE THE RDGG ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF
CONV SHWRS AND ISLTD TRWS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE ERN ZONES.
OTRW...RDG LINE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THRU THE PD ALLOWING A SFC TROF
AND SRN STREAM WV TO APRCH FOR TUE. MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE SYSTEM
TO BE WELL SUPPLIED WITH MOISTURE AS IT LFTS NWRD OUT OF THE GULF.
DVLPG UA JET BY TUES AHD OF THE SFC COLD FNT WILL HELP WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON TUE. LUCKILY...SYSTEM SEEMS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST THRU THE SHRT TERM PD...WITH GFS FCSTD PWS
OF BETTER THAN 1.50 INCHES.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THE PD...ESP SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS
PUSHING 90F IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN AND WRN ZONES. ATTM
IT APPEARS WE WILL BE WELL BLO ANY HEAT FLAG THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD BEGINS AS A COLD FNT IS PUSHING THRU THE FCST AREA. INITIAL
TIMING AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IS GOOD...THEN THE GFS DVLPS A
WV ALONG THE FNT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...DELAYING THE EWRD
PROGRESS ON WED. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME SHWRS AND TRWS TO LINGER
OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO THU. ECMWF INDICATES SOME TROFINESS OVER
WRN NEW ENG AS WELL...SO BEST BET FCST IS TO CONT SOME CHANCE POPS
THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST
NEARER THE STALLED FNT OR SFC TROF. ALSO...BOTH MODELS SHOW ONLY
WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALOFT THRU THE PD...SO SOME CONV PSBL AT ALMOST
ANY TIME.
DFRNCS IN THE SFC PTRN DID MAKE SOME DFRNC IN THE FCSTD TEMPS FOR
THE PD. DECIDED TO START WITH HPC GUID FOR TEMPS...THEN BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS BASED GUID TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
...AND TO BETTER COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE TIMES OF EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN
PA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN FL050-100.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DURING THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE OVERCAST CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO SCT-BKN AFT 16Z.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND POOLING MOISTURE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING MAINLY THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY
OUR COMPUTER MODELS TO DROP INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AFTER DARK AND THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KELM-KBGM-KAVP. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A
PROB FORECAST AFT 00Z TONIGHT...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF A RISK OF
TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING TERMINAL OPS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1123 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ROCHESTER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BINGHAMTON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SYRACUSE, ROME, ONEONTA, AND MONTECELLO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ELMIRA, TOWANDA, AND SCRANTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER...OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP POPS AND TEMPS FOR MORNING TRENDS. FRONT
LIES FROM EAST OF ROC TO BGM TO MSV AND TEMPERATURES TO THE NE ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED HANGING IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE SHOWERS ALONG AND NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE SE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND THERE
HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
70S. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TRENDS WHICH
KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN THIS MORNING. THE 06Z NAM GIVES US
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 BUT HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS SO THE LOW END OF THAT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
THE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50S WITH SOME INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MOST LIKELY
IN THE WARMER SW ZONES THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE SHOWERS REMAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
520 AM SAT UPDATE... UPR-LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WANE ACRS THE
RGN FROM TNT...RIGHT INTO MON...WITH BUILDING HGTS ALOFT ACRS MOST
OF THE ERN CONUS THIS PD. THUS...OTHER THAN ISOLD-SCTD
CONVECTION...FAVORED NEAR THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY SUN...AND DURG
PEAK HTG ON MON...CONDS SHOULD BE LARGELY RAIN-FREE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON SUN...AS COMPARED TO TDY (HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S)...WITH READINGS WARMER STILL ON MON (TEMPS MAKING A
RUN AT 90 IN OUR NORMALLY WARMER URBANIZED VLYS (NEAR KSYR AND KAVP)).
BY LATER MON NGT/EARLY TUE...THE PROSPECTS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAY BEGIN
TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE...OWING TO HGT FALLS ALOFT AND THE GRADUAL
APPRCH OF A COLD FRNT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM SAT UPDATE... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BROKEN
DOWN FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY MOST OF THE MED RANGE
SOLUTIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION...TAKING DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH IT. SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A GOOD
LIKELY HOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ENOUGH AT THAT TIME RANGE TO
HOLD BACK ON A DEFINITIVE CALL. LATER ON THROUGH THE WEEK...MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN ESTABLISHING A WESTERN ATLANTIC
BLOCKING LOW...AND WHERE ANY DISTURBANCES ALONG THE STALLED
OFFSHORE FRONT WILL FORM AND THEIR EFFECT BACK HERE. LATEST ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT FURTHEST EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY WX
WORKING IN AFTER WEDS. GFS AND GGEM SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR EASTERN HALF. MY HUNCH IS THE FORECAST PROBABLY DOESN`T NEED
AS MUCH MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WE HAVE ON WEDS-THURS...BUT
WILL LEAVE THE SCHC-CHC POPS MENTIONED.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM IF THERE WASN`T
GOING TO BE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER
70S-LOW 80S WILL PREVAIL POST FRONTAL WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE TIMES OF EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN
PA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN FL050-100.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DURING THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE OVERCAST CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO SCT-BKN AFT 16Z.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND POOLING MOISTURE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING MAINLY THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY
OUR COMPUTER MODELS TO DROP INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AFTER DARK AND THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KELM-KBGM-KAVP. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A
PROB FORECAST AFT 00Z TONIGHT...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF A RISK OF
TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING TERMINAL OPS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
737 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. FOLLOWING THE FRONT
WILL BE A FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WHICH WILL
LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN GENERAL TERMS...A WARM FRONT WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE DIFFUSE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IS EASIER IDENTIFIED LOOKING AT 850 MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT RATHER THAN SURFACE FEATURES. AT 700 AM THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LAKE
ONTARIO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LAKE
HURON DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GFS/RGEM/NAM ARE GENERALLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALL GENERALLY KEYING ON THIS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH GENERALLY MORE
SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HRRR...AND
THE MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAIRLY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...SEE THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS MARGINAL...AND CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EITHER LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE STALLED FROM TORONTO-ROCHESTER-BINGHAMTON.
AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY STANDS A DECENT CHANCE FOR FAIR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE HIGHS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH OR TOP 80.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIFT WITH IT...THOUGH
SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE..ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
BY AND LARGE LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING...
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +14C TO +16C
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN AT MODEST LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS
LINGERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH MIDSUMMERLIKE HEAT CONTINUING. WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING AT THE LOW LEVELS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON A SLOW
BUT STEADY RISE...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +16C TO +18C
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
SOME OF OUR USUAL WARM SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HELPING TO TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE WIDE-OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK PER A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM. WILL THEREFORE
BEGIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BEFORE SPREADING THESE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FASTER OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKING TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED
BY A QUICKER WEST-TO-EAST RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR TIMING...
FOLLOWED BY A FASTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVING TREND
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY
STALL AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. OVERALL...EXPECT FAIR
AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL RULE LATER IN THE
WEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +14C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 5000
FEET...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS UP IN VFR TERRITORY.
THIS SAID..SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORALLY
LOWER VSBY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK THROUGH 15Z...WITH THIS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
BUF/IAG/ROC. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD THEN BECOME
SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
NEAR ROC. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES TO TAKE OVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
326 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. FOLLOWING THE FRONT
WILL BE A FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WHICH WILL
LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN GENERAL TERMS...A WARM FRONT WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE DIFFUSE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IS EASIER IDENTIFIED LOOKING AT 850 MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT RATHER THAN SURFACE FEATURES. AT 300 AM THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING
LAKE HURON DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF BOTH 00Z
MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/RGEM/NAM ARE GENERALLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS...ALL GENERALLY KEYING ON THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THIS
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS WOULD BRING
THIS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 600 AM AND NOON. EXTRAPOLATING THIS
YIELDS A SIMILAR TIMING...BUT IT WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSITION AND GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...FEEL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE IN FORECASTING A
NORTHWARD JOG IN THIS. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. FAR SOUTHERN (SOUTHERN
TIER) AND NORTHERN (EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO) PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO DODGE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THIS...GIVEN THE MORNING
TIMING...AND LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE.
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EITHER LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE. THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD BE STALLED FROM TORONTO-ROCHESTER-BINGHAMTON. AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY STANDS A DECENT CHANCE FOR FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR TOP 80.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIFT WITH IT...THOUGH
SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE..ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
BY AND LARGE LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING...
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +14C TO +16C
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN AT MODEST LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS
LINGERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH MIDSUMMERLIKE HEAT CONTINUING. WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING AT THE LOW LEVELS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON A SLOW
BUT STEADY RISE...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +16C TO +18C
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
SOME OF OUR USUAL WARM SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESEE VALLEY
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HELPING TO TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE WIDE-OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK PER A CONSENUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM. WILL THEREFORE
BEGIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BEFORE SPREADING THESE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FASTER OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKING TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED
BY A QUICKER WEST-TO-EAST RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR TIMING...
FOLLOWED BY A FASTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVING TREND
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY
STALL AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. OVERALL...EXPECT FAIR
AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL RULE LATER IN THE
WEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +14C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW
5000 FEET...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS UP IN VFR TERRITORY.
THIS SAID..SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORALLY
LOWER VSBY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH THIS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
BUF/IAG/ROC. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD THEN BECOME SCATTERED
IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK NEAR ROC.
ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES TO TAKE OVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE....SHOWERS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIED DOWN
ASIDE FROM A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR TWO. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
LAKE HURON NOW IS FORECASTED BY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
THE 08Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME FROM THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA NORTHWEST
INTO CNY. THE NEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 0Z NAM 12 HAVE SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH A BIT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...WITH THE
FOCUS ACROSS CNY VS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. STILL THINKING THE
MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THESE
SYSTEMS TO DIVE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
630 PM
UPDATE...MAIN ACTION CONTINUES TO BE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NNY BEING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CLOSER TO HOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF 81 NOW WITH JUST A FEW STRIKES OF
LIGHTING. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STAYING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WILL MAINTAIN JUST ISOLATED T-STORMS FOR THIS EVENING
THEN DRY PAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA IS
XPCTD TO DIE OFF THIS EVNG. LATER TNGT...MCS WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS
WAY SEWD FROM ONTARIO. GFS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN OTHER
MDLS...BUT GEM AND NAM SUGGEST PCPN WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY
10-12Z.
RETAINED CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR TMRW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FCST BCMS
VERY INTERESTING TMRW AFTN. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A NW-SE CORRIDOR
ACRS THE BGM CWA WHICH WILL BE FVRBL FOR POTNL SVR DVLPMNT. AS
EXPECTED...THE NAM VALUES ARE HIGHER AND ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRSV
FOR THIS AREA IN TERMS OF EHI AND COMPOSITE SVR PARAMS. GFS VALUES
ARE LOWER (NOT SUPRISING) AND PLACE AXIS OF GREATEST POTNL
SLIGHTLY FURTHER W OF THE NAM. WE NOTE THAT MCS`S OFTEN DELAY THE
ADVANCEMNT OF THE WMFNT SO THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. IN ANY
EVENT...IF WRN ZONES BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE SAT AFTN AIDING
DESTABLIZATION...THERE WILL BE THE POTNL FOR STRONG/SVR TSRA
ALONG/NEAR THE WMFNT MID TO LATE AFTN. BEST GUESS ATTM IS GREATEST
POTNL WOULD BE ACRS AREAS GNRLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TMRW. FOR NOW WE HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCMENT TO THE
TSRA GRIDS ACRS WRN ZONES FOR TMRW AFTN..AND WILL MENTION POTNL IN
THE HWO.
MAX TEMPS VERY TRICKY TMRW WITH THE WMFNT...AND I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE MAXES ACRS THE EAST (U60S/L70S) ARE TOO WARM WHILE
MAXES WEST OF THE WMFNT (M/U70S) ARE TOO COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION XPCTD SAT NGT VCNTY OF THE WMFNT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC HELP...COULD HELP
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT MOST AREA SWILL JUST
HAVE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH WARM TEMPS. EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTEM WITH SOME AREAS APRCHNG 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG SLIDES TO THE EAST MON ALLOWING A LRG TROF TO SETTLE INTO
THE NRN LAKES. GNRL LWRG OF HGTS AHD OF THE SFC FNT COMBINED WITH
AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER SCT SHWRS AND TRWS ON TUE
THEN CONTG THRU THE PD AS TROF SLOWLY MVES EAST. SOME IMPRVMT PSBL
LATE IN THE PD...AS A WEAK HI MVES IN...BUT OVERALL PTRN STILL HAS
THE AREA IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE WEEK.
FOR THE PD...ONCE AGAIN FLWD HPC GUID WHICH WAS IN RSNBL
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL MOS GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE TIMES OF EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN
PA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN FL050-100.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DURING THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE OVERCAST CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO SCT-BKN AFT 16Z.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND POOLING MOISTURE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING MAINLY THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY
OUR COMPUTER MODELS TO DROP INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AFTER DARK AND THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KELM-KBGM-KAVP. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A
PROB FORECAST AFT 00Z TONIGHT...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF A RISK OF
TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING TERMINAL OPS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE WILL BE STORM CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES.
CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR NE ND INTO NW TIP OF MN.
OVERALL GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HOWEVER DID EXPAND
POPS EASTWARD REMAINDER OF MORNING INTO NW MN BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. KEEP THINKING OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE
AFTERNOON VCNTY SURFACE LOW FROM RUC ACROSS NW FA HOWEVER CIN SHOULD
BUILD/CONTINUE ACROSS REMAINDER OF FA IN WARM SECTOR AND WILL KEEP
DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS FAR NORTH WITH CURRENT
STORM ACTIVITY AND AS A RESULT LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY...GUSTING TO 30KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHER OF FORECAST TAF SITES. SLIGHT CHANCE
SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE VCNTY DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
302 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ND...WITH SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALBERTA...WITH
STRONG JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE OREGON COAST TO
WESTERN WY AND EASTERN MT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...CROSSING
NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. BRISK NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER
TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SD. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
DECREASE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR INCREASING
DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD
AS MAIN COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHORT RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
SOME ON POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RUC ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER THE RAP AREA AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPPER
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH
MID WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTMS...WITH TEMPS STAYING QUITE WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE AFTN. SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE THIS AFTN...WITH
ACTIVITY SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG NW
WINDS. GUSTS OVER 40KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN SD...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS INCLUDING THE KRAP TERMINAL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST IR SAT AND RUC13 DATA SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SLOWLY NE TOWARDS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING FROM NEAR COLUMBUS MS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO
DECLINE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH
06Z WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCTD SHWRS AND TSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AT BEST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONLY A FEW SPOTS WILL EVEN SEE THIS ACTIVITY.
TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO MATCH CURRENT READINGS WITH FORECAST
LOWS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT. --ABS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE...HOWEVER WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
BEEN HINDERING CONVECTION...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
HAVE BEEN LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. NOT
CONFIDENT WITH THE 12Z MODELS THAT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN QPF
AMOUNTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 11/00Z. THEY MAY
RECEIVE THAT AMOUNT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT
THAT`S ALL. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE FAVORED FOR AN OCCASIONAL CLAP
OF THUNDER...BUT STRONG STORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY. MOST MIDSOUTHERNERS
HOWEVER WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY
SUNSET ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE AREA
WIDE...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST
NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE VOLUNTEER STATE AS
A MAJOR SHORTWAVE IN THE MAIN JET FLOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ENERGY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH WEST OF THE RIVER ARE ZONED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT CROSSES THE OZARKS. LIFTED INDICES NEAR -10C ARE
PROGGED FOR LATE TOMORROW AND NEARLY THAT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
ANY WORDING FOR A STRONG STORM FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...BUT KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS A BIT TRICKY FOR MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ABUNDANT IN THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EURO
AND NAM WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS. SAME SITUATION ON TUESDAY AS
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE REGION ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS USHERING
IN ON NORTHEAST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID
JUNE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL
STILL BE FOUND.
NEXT WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY BACK TO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH ISOLATED SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY.
JAB
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (11/00Z-12/00Z)
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z MAINLY
FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHWEST TN POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMKL AND KTUP.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT THE TAF SITES.
AFTER 05Z...IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KMKL AND KTUP WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS AND FOG...MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT KMEM AND KJBR.
CONDITIONS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER MID-MORNING MONDAY
BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TSRA IN
THE TAFS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY
SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
MOVES TO THE EAST.
SE-S WINDS DECREASING TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT BECOMING SW 8-10 KTS
MONDAY.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 72 89 73 87 / 20 30 50 40
MKL 68 87 69 86 / 30 40 50 40
JBR 70 89 69 86 / 20 30 50 20
TUP 70 87 72 87 / 30 40 50 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION SLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BOTH THE WRF AND HRRR MODELS DO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BY 01Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID STATE, BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN, AND ALSO BELIEVE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY
MENTIONED SHRA IN THE TAF`S. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
SHORT TERM (THRU TUE)...
DEEP MOISTURE/CLOUDY SKIES WL REMAIN ACROSS MID-TN TNGT AS A SUB-
TROPICAL LOW PRES SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT NORTH. AREA RADARS AT MID
AFTERNOON SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AL-TN LINE
ATTM. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.
AS H5 TROF LIFTS NORTH LATER TNGT AND MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. LKLY POPS. MODELS SHOW DEEPER LIFT WITH MORE UNSTABLE AIR
AT MID-LVLS. HOWEVER SFC LAYER REMAINS STABLE WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. ONE INCH RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
H5 TROF SHOULD BE EAST OF I-65 MONDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF PCPN
SHIFTING EAST OF I-65...HEAVIER SHOWERS PATEAU. EXPECT TO SEE A BREAK
IN PCPN MOST AREAS FROM MID MORNING ON...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WL MOVE EAST AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE MON
NIGHT. EXPECT OUR BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT CUTS INTO THE REGION WITH MODEL SHOWALTERS TO -4. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY.
MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MID TN TUE MORNING. DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
AND PLATEAU.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
DRY AND WARM PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS FRI-SAT
WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION.../06 TAFS/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STILL SOMEWHAT OF A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP 0830-1430Z AT
KAMA AND 08-1430Z AT KDHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LIFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME. IF LIFR CIGS OCCUR...MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE
10-13Z. HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
AT KGUY 09-13Z. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.
S/SSW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 14-18Z...TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE
18-21Z...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN 21-02Z.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS WILL BE COMING SHORTLY. WILL
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED...WITH DRYLINE
REMAINING WEST OF FORECAST AREA...AND NO OPPORTUNE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ANTICIPATED. REMAINING ELEMENTS OF FORECAST LOOK FINE.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KAMA THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BECOMING
VFR THROUGH 09Z. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
09Z-15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS 11Z-13Z. COULD SEE SOME
BR DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE CAUSED BY
CIGS.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KDHT 0830Z-
1200Z. MAY SEE SOME BR...BUT SSW WINDS MAY PREVENT THIS FROM
MATERIALIZING.
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KGUY
10Z-15Z. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DON/T BELIEVE ANY BR WILL
DEVELOP.
S/SSW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. IF
THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING. HIGH CIN VALUES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE OK
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW.
BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS
EAST...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ENTIRELY. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO...IF NOT
ENTERING...THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THAT
STRONG DAY TIME COLD FRONTS ARE ABNORMAL FOR MID JUNE...EXPECT THAT
THE FRONT WILL SLOW IF NOT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IN A STARK DEPARTURE FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF...NOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO A SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT. AM HESITANT TO GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO
HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND GREEN FUELS...DO NOT
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL...GIVEN THE CONDITION
OF THE FUELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSH
THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER...AND
THUS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JJ/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
225 PM PDT Sat Jun 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The wet, cool and breezy weather for today will be replaced to
drier and more seasonal weather for Sunday and into early next
week. Under westerly flow aloft, a series of weak weather systems
will bring a few afternoon and evening showers Tuesday and
Wednesday. A stronger weather system is expected by the end of the
week with a better chance of showers, meanwhile temperatures will
stay near normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The pesky cutoff low responsible for the cool
and wet weather today, will slowly exit the region over the next
12-24 hours. Currently this feature is circulating over northwest
Montana, while a wet northerly flow drops in from BC. This was
depicted well in the 295k surface with strong isentropic lift
through this afternoon and tapering off this evening. Under the
west northwest flow, showers will linger in the Idaho panhandle as
supported by the orographic flow overnight. Based the pops and
weather mostly on the HRRR models in the near term and leaned to a
NAM/GFS blend into Sunday. The low level westerly flow has mixed
the surface with occasional gusty winds in the rain-free area of
the lower Columbia basin, to the Palouse and LC valley. The cross
Cascade surface pressure gradients have been increasing and this will
enhance the wind speeds in the lee of the Cascades into the
evening hours, especially in the Wenatchee area with gusts near
the wind advisory criteria. The showers and winds will be tapering
off overnight as low center creeps further east and the dry slot
in the northwest flow moves over central Washington. A chance of
showers will redevelop over northeast Washington and north Idaho
by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will moderate on Sunday, warming
about 5-10 degrees over today, but still remain below normal for
early June. /rfox.
Sunday night through Tuesday...Through this portion of the
forecast high pressure will track through the region followed by
zonal flow as the next upstream weather disturbance begins to
effect the region.
The axis of the ridge of high pressure will be on the coast by
Sunday evening, then track east across the Inland Northwest Sunday
night, before flattening on Monday. The models are also very
similar in showing a weak short wave disturbance moving through the
ridge. There is little in the way of moisture associated with this
wave and the likely results will be some alto-cumulus
development. The aforementioned wave will increase winds slightly
out of the southwest Monday with gusts around 10-15 mph. Temperatures
will rise to near seasonal normals.
Late Monday afternoon through Tuesday the ridge will flatten
resulting in westerly zonal flow and increasing Pacific moisture.
A few weak waves will pass through the region resulting in a few
showers over the Cascades Monday night and increasing across the
northern Washington mountains and Idaho Panhandle mountains
Tuesday. These showers will need a little help with orographics
and will be tied to the terrain. A slightly stronger wave is expected
late Tuesday afternoon. In addition both the GFS and NAM are
indicating surface based cape and negative LI`s stretching from
just east of republic south to the Blue mountains. With the
stronger wave acting as a kicker showers will be a little heavier
and more widespread across the eastern half of the forecast area.
The instability will be strong enough to support embedded thunderstorms
and these were kept in the forecast and the area expanded slightly
south. /Tobin
Tuesday night through Saturday...Models are in good agreement
concerning the long wave pattern in the extended with a
progressive west to northwest flow with a series of weak systems
passing across southern British Columbia, Northern Washington, and
the Idaho Panhandle. The trajectory of these waves will keep a
threat of showers in the forecast especially over the northern
mountains where the best lift and instability will lie with each
passing wave. GFS and ECMWF also show enough instability such that
isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Northeast Washington
Mountains and Idaho Panhandle. Models do show some
timing/strength differences with each wave so confidence in the
exact details is low. Given prevailing west- northwest flow there
is higher confidence of dry conditions throughout the extended
period in the Wenatchee and Moses Lake areas. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly below normal through the period. /JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A swath of precipitation has dropped south from BC and
is bringing a steady cold rain east of a line from KOMK-KMWH. The
KGEG-KCOE corridor can expect MVFR CIGS with rain through at least
02z with locally gusty southwest winds. Areas of MVFR CIGs will be
near KPUW with some light rain. The mountains north and east of
KGEG will experience even lower CIGS with mountains obscured and
more moderate rain. Northwest winds will be on the increase in
KEAT with dry conditions and gusts to 35kt. Locally gusty winds,
VFR conditions with a slight chance of rain will be found in KMWH
and KLWS. Rain will exit the region after 06z with gradual
clearing from the northwest overnight into Sunday morning, while a
chance of showers will linger in the Panhandle mountains. /rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 43 66 46 72 52 73 / 50 10 0 0 10 40
Coeur d`Alene 44 63 46 71 50 72 / 30 10 10 10 10 40
Pullman 43 63 44 71 48 71 / 80 10 0 0 10 40
Lewiston 47 71 50 78 54 78 / 40 10 0 0 10 40
Colville 45 73 46 76 51 77 / 30 10 10 10 20 40
Sandpoint 44 61 43 70 46 69 / 50 30 10 10 20 50
Kellogg 41 56 44 68 48 69 / 80 50 10 10 20 50
Moses Lake 47 76 49 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 0 10 20
Wenatchee 49 75 52 79 59 79 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Omak 44 77 46 79 53 80 / 10 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1016 PM PDT Fri Jun 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad low pressure system spinning over the region will
continue to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through Saturday. Sunday will be a marginally drier day in
Washington...with wet conditions persisting in the Idaho
Panhandle. Temperatures will be well below normal Saturday.
Temperatures will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for the
beginning of the work week...but unsettled weather will likely
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: mushy trough pattern in place, with several features
migrating around the parent trough. The most notable is the low
pressure center moving toward the southern Oregon coast, set to
move inland overnight into Saturday. At the same time several
minor vorticity lobes have been ejecting northeast across the
Inland Northwest this evening.
Trying to pick out each is difficult but the more distinct
vorticity max tracked into the southeast CWA from Oregon this
afternoon, with a second on its heels and tracking across north-
northeast into the Basin and stretching across the I-90 corridor
at this late hour. These helped trigger some scattered showers and
the isolated embedded thunderstorm. These have been dissipating in
coverage over the past couple hours and I adjusted PoPs to trim
the risk back to slight/isolated over much of the region.
The exception will remain across the Cascades through northern
Washington mountains. Moisture wrapping around the broader trough
and a secondary low developing around northeast Washington will
help sustain and/or increase the threat of showers from the north
through the night. Model guidance, including the latest run of
the 3-KM HRRR model, shows the precipitation increasing across
Okanogan and Ferry county overnight...especially after 09-10Z
(or 2-3AM).
As Saturday progresses trough axis pivots across the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies and the moisture and embedded
disturbances pivoting around it are poised to expand the
precipitation southeastward, between late morning and
afternoon...before starting to shift out Saturday night. So away
from the deeper Columbia Basin and lee of the Cascades, most
locations have a good chance of seeing precipitation during the
day Saturday. The combination of the precipitation, cloud cover
and cool upper trough will lead much below normal afternoon highs.
So record low maximum temperature are possible. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system will continue to migrate across
the Pacific Northwest Friday night through Saturday. With
instability waning for Friday night, mainly isolated shower are
expected in the vicinity of TAF sites. However toward late morning
to early afternoon Saturday moisture wrapping around the passing
low will increase from the north, leading to increasing
precipitation over most of the eastern TAF sites. Chances will
also be found around KEAT/KMWH. The highest threat will be between
18Z and 03Z. During this period occnl MVFR/isolated IFR
conditions can be expected around KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, while VFR/occnl
MVFR near KPUW/KLWS. There is some disagreement over the precise
timing of these deteriorating conditions; some guidance brings the
threat in as early as 15Z. So the forecast will continue to be
fine-tuned. After 03Z, most locations are expected to see
improving conditions as the low begins to move out. KCOE/KPUW/KLWS
may hold onto the lower conditions longer. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 53 43 65 45 73 / 20 80 60 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 37 51 45 60 46 72 / 20 90 70 40 10 10
Pullman 37 53 43 61 44 71 / 20 80 60 20 10 10
Lewiston 42 60 48 69 49 77 / 20 70 50 20 0 0
Colville 40 56 46 72 45 77 / 50 80 60 20 10 10
Sandpoint 39 50 45 57 45 71 / 30 90 70 50 20 10
Kellogg 38 47 42 54 43 69 / 40 90 80 70 10 10
Moses Lake 42 67 47 75 49 79 / 20 40 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 45 64 48 75 51 80 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Omak 44 64 45 77 46 79 / 30 60 10 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
740 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
740 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARD OMAHA. THE PEAK OF THESE
STORMS OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING
WHERE SBCAPE APPROACHED 3000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS
POCKET OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WAS MAINLY DUE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BEING A BIT STEEPER DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH. MANY OF THE STORMS SOUTH OF THIS HIGHER POCKET OF
INSTABILITY...FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN
IOWA...HAVE MAINLY BEEN SUB-SEVERE WITH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS OF
50 MPH WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH SBCAPE MORESO AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG.
AS THE FRONT PROPAGATES EAST THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT THE BAND
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS THE 10.21Z RAP AND
HRRR SHOW A CORRIDOR OF AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE PERSISTING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME MESO MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH MIXED LAYER CIN
REMAINING RELATITVELY WEAK IN THIS NARROW PATH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ALL OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE LOWER 3KM AND STRONG ENOUGH AT
ABOUT 20-30KTS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE
STORMS. THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR IS POINTED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THESE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD COME
WITH ANY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING STORMS. OVERALL...STILL THINK
THAT THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT FOR A STORM OR
TWO TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WINDS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNSWING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TIMING WISE...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...DODGE COUNTY MN TO FLOYD COUNTY IA...AROUND 930 PM...TO
ROCHESTER MN AROUND 10 PM...AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IF SOME PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT FORMS WITH WINDS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG WITH THE CLEARING SKIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY. THE 10.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE FORCING
WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST.
AFTER THAT...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START
TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT COULD EASILY SEE THESE BEING DELAYED WITH NOTED
MODEL BIAS OF BEING TOO FAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
646 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA RIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME AT RST AROUND 3Z
AND LSE AROUND 6Z. HOWEVER...THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THESE STORMS
TO BE WEAKENING AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY DECREASES AFTER SUNSET. STILL...THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY THAT THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO RST AND BRING SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH IT. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER AT LSE ARE NOT AS HIGH...BUT STILL POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AND SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT AT RST...THERE
COULD BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO 2SM IFR WITH THE TAFS...BUT COULD SEE SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A 1/4SM. THE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD COME IN LATE ENOUGH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK THAT
THE FOG DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY THERE. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING HAS BEEN HELPING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...AS SEEN IN GOES SOUNDER AND RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSES. AN AREA OF VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN MISSOURI HAS BEEN
STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO IOWA. THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS OF 19C AT MPX AND 16C AT GRB. NOTE THAT MPX MIXED UP TO
780MB YESTERDAY. THESE READINGS ARE HOLDING STEADY PER RAP ANALYSIS.
WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND THE WARMER AIR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS
DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO PULL HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1-1.25 INCHES UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO BUILT UP AHEAD OF IT. BY 00Z MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE
REMAINS TIMING PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE TROUGH.
THE 09.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE FASTEST...HAVING IT REACH ROCHESTER BY
00Z MONDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SLOWER...
HAVING IT AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z
MONDAY. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND PAST MODEL RUNS WITH A
SLOWER TIMING...WHICH WOULD MATCH THE UPPER FLOW IDEA WITH RIDGING
BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GREAT CONCERN THAT...DUE TO THE MIXING AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALL PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING POST-FRONTAL. THIS IS
IN-LINE WITH THE 09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF. HAVE KEPT A LOW...20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST
IN CASE MODELS SPEED UP. HOWEVER...LIKELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ONLY
OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS ON SUNDAY...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS COULD TRY TO GET UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW THINK THEY WILL STAY BELOW...BUT 25KT
WINDS LOOK LIKELY AT DODGE CENTER AND ROCHESTER. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WITH DRYING SOILS AND A LOT OF SUN...ALONG WITH THE
BREEZE...DEEP MIXING LIKE WAS SEEN YESTERDAY SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT NICELY TOO. A
BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE SPEED ISSUES WITH
BOTH THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND PRECEDING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
09.00Z NAM THE FASTEST AND THE 09.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. STILL HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN A LITTLE SLOWER...CLOSER TO THE 09.00Z
UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF GIVEN THE NAM BEING FASTEST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT. IN ANY EVENT...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT NEARLY PARALLELING THE
UPPER FLOW...THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIKELY TO STAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN A DRY AND CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO EITHER BE TIED RIGHT ON THE
FRONT OR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DYNAMICAL AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO BE LIMITED BY A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUMP UP TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY TANK TO
0.5 INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION IS GOING
TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP DRY IN THE MORNING. MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LOOK TO SEE THE MOST PRECIP OVERALL...SINCE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGEST THERE AND SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET LOOKS TO OCCUR. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
80-100 IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...BEST
CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHEN MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE FRONT. BETTER
0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR IS
30-35KT. DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER 0-3KM
SHEAR SUGGESTS WIND IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN THE 13-16C RANGE AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 80S
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN ZONAL WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY. SUBSIDENCE...
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ALL LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TANK TO 4-8C BY 12Z
TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN COOLER PER THE 09.00Z NAM. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
09.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT BEING TEMPORARY. BY THURSDAY...NEW TROUGHING IS SHOWN
TO DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST CANADA...FORCING
RIDGING TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE ZONAL AND RIDGING BUILDING UP
TOWARDS THE REGION. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AND COOLER
THAN OF LATE...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS 7-11C. THE WARM ADVECTION THEN
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY...SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE UP
TOWARDS 16-18C. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ENDS
UP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPS MAY EVEN CLIMB
TOWARDS 20C FOR FRIDAY...SO DEFINITELY A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
NEED A FURTHER BOOST UP OVER THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 09.00Z
ECMWF VERIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PERSIST RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS THE ONLY
CONCERN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH DECOULING OF THE WINDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND LOOSE THE GUSTS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF INTO
CANADA...A SECOND LOW WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE
INTO MINNESOTA. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING THE WINDS UP BY MID
MORNING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED CATEGORY WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KRST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
FIRST OFF...HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS.
RECORD HIGHS RANGE FROM 93-96 AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THIS MONTH OF JUNE
COULD BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME INDICATORS
INCLUDE:
1. PER JUNE 5TH DROUGHT MONITOR...MUCH OF IOWA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI
ARE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IN TURN LIMITS
EVAPOTRANSPORATION FROM CROPS AND OTHER VEGETATION. IN FACT...THERE
ARE ALREADY REPORTS IN IOWA AND MISSOURI OF CURLING CORN LEAVES AND
SOYBEAN EMERGENCE PROBLEMS.
2. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO FURTHER DRY
OUT VEGETATION...WHICH ALSO IN TURN CAN MIX OUT MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
3. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERN TROUGHING AND STRONG EASTERN RIDGING...
BLOCKING THE AREA FROM SEEING MUCH CONVECTION.
4. MANY CFS MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE REST OF THE MONTH OF JUNE TO
AVERAGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HOPEFULLY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CAN GIVE OUR AREA A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS A DROUGHT MAY SET IN AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE
IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE SOME LOWEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION RECORDS.
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME TO GET MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE
DRY PATTERN...THESE MIGHT BE OF INTEREST.
LA CROSSE...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.06 INCHES.
1. 0.37 INCHES IN 1910
2. 0.98 INCHES IN 1887
3. 1.33 INCHES IN 1989
ROCHESTER...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.08 INCHES.
1. TRACE IN 1910
2. 0.94 INCHES IN 1985
3. 1.08 INCHES IN 1964
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING HAS BEEN HELPING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...AS SEEN IN GOES SOUNDER AND RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSES. AN AREA OF VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN MISSOURI HAS BEEN
STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO IOWA. THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS OF 19C AT MPX AND 16C AT GRB. NOTE THAT MPX MIXED UP TO
780MB YESTERDAY. THESE READINGS ARE HOLDING STEADY PER RAP ANALYSIS.
WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND THE WARMER AIR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS
DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO PULL HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1-1.25 INCHES UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO BUILT UP AHEAD OF IT. BY 00Z MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE
REMAINS TIMING PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE TROUGH.
THE 09.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE FASTEST...HAVING IT REACH ROCHESTER BY
00Z MONDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SLOWER...
HAVING IT AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z
MONDAY. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND PAST MODEL RUNS WITH A
SLOWER TIMING...WHICH WOULD MATCH THE UPPER FLOW IDEA WITH RIDGING
BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GREAT CONCERN THAT...DUE TO THE MIXING AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALL PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING POST-FRONTAL. THIS IS
IN-LINE WITH THE 09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF. HAVE KEPT A LOW...20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST
IN CASE MODELS SPEED UP. HOWEVER...LIKELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ONLY
OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS ON SUNDAY...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS COULD TRY TO GET UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW THINK THEY WILL STAY BELOW...BUT 25KT
WINDS LOOK LIKELY AT DODGE CENTER AND ROCHESTER. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WITH DRYING SOILS AND A LOT OF SUN...ALONG WITH THE
BREEZE...DEEP MIXING LIKE WAS SEEN YESTERDAY SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT NICELY TOO. A
BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE SPEED ISSUES WITH
BOTH THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND PRECEDING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
09.00Z NAM THE FASTEST AND THE 09.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. STILL HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN A LITTLE SLOWER...CLOSER TO THE 09.00Z
UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF GIVEN THE NAM BEING FASTEST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT. IN ANY EVENT...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT NEARLY PARALLELING THE
UPPER FLOW...THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIKELY TO STAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN A DRY AND CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO EITHER BE TIED RIGHT ON THE
FRONT OR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DYNAMICAL AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO BE LIMITED BY A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUMP UP TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY TANK TO
0.5 INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION IS GOING
TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP DRY IN THE MORNING. MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LOOK TO SEE THE MOST PRECIP OVERALL...SINCE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGEST THERE AND SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET LOOKS TO OCCUR. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
80-100 IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...BEST
CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHEN MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE FRONT. BETTER
0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR IS
30-35KT. DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER 0-3KM
SHEAR SUGGESTS WIND IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN THE 13-16C RANGE AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 80S
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN ZONAL WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY. SUBSIDENCE...
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ALL LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TANK TO 4-8C BY 12Z
TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN COOLER PER THE 09.00Z NAM. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
09.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT BEING TEMPORARY. BY THURSDAY...NEW TROUGHING IS SHOWN
TO DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST CANADA...FORCING
RIDGING TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE ZONAL AND RIDGING BUILDING UP
TOWARDS THE REGION. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AND COOLER
THAN OF LATE...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS 7-11C. THE WARM ADVECTION THEN
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY...SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE UP
TOWARDS 16-18C. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ENDS
UP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPS MAY EVEN CLIMB
TOWARDS 20C FOR FRIDAY...SO DEFINITELY A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
NEED A FURTHER BOOST UP OVER THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 09.00Z
ECMWF VERIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PERSIST RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
651 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...PLAN ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP LATER THIS
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
LOOKS LIKELY AT KRST WITH 20 TO 25KT EXPECTED AT KLSE. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DEEP MIXING. WAS CONTEMPLATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT...BUT CRITERIA WILL TECHNICALLY NOT BE MET. COULD STILL
BE A BUMPY TAKE OFF/FINAL APPROACH WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 35KT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
FIRST OFF...HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS.
RECORD HIGHS RANGE FROM 93-96 AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THIS MONTH OF JUNE
COULD BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME INDICATORS
INCLUDE:
1. PER JUNE 5TH DROUGHT MONITOR...MUCH OF IOWA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI
ARE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IN TURN LIMITS
EVAPOTRANSPORATION FROM CROPS AND OTHER VEGETATION. IN FACT...THERE
ARE ALREADY REPORTS IN IOWA AND MISSOURI OF CURLING CORN LEAVES AND
SOYBEAN EMERGENCE PROBLEMS.
2. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO FURTHER DRY
OUT VEGETATION...WHICH ALSO IN TURN CAN MIX OUT MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
3. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERN TROUGHING AND STRONG EASTERN RIDGING...
BLOCKING THE AREA FROM SEEING MUCH CONVECTION.
4. MANY CFS MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE REST OF THE MONTH OF JUNE TO
AVERAGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HOPEFULLY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CAN GIVE OUR AREA A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS A DROUGHT MAY SET IN AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE
IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE SOME LOWEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION RECORDS.
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME TO GET MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE
DRY PATTERN...THESE MIGHT BE OF INTEREST.
LA CROSSE...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.06 INCHES.
1. 0.37 INCHES IN 1910
2. 0.98 INCHES IN 1887
3. 1.33 INCHES IN 1989
ROCHESTER...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.08 INCHES.
1. TRACE IN 1910
2. 0.94 INCHES IN 1985
3. 1.08 INCHES IN 1964
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING HAS BEEN HELPING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...AS SEEN IN GOES SOUNDER AND RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSES. AN AREA OF VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN MISSOURI HAS BEEN
STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO IOWA. THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS OF 19C AT MPX AND 16C AT GRB. NOTE THAT MPX MIXED UP TO
780MB YESTERDAY. THESE READINGS ARE HOLDING STEADY PER RAP ANALYSIS.
WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND THE WARMER AIR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS
DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO PULL HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1-1.25 INCHES UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO BUILT UP AHEAD OF IT. BY 00Z MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE
REMAINS TIMING PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE TROUGH.
THE 09.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE FASTEST...HAVING IT REACH ROCHESTER BY
00Z MONDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SLOWER...
HAVING IT AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z
MONDAY. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND PAST MODEL RUNS WITH A
SLOWER TIMING...WHICH WOULD MATCH THE UPPER FLOW IDEA WITH RIDGING
BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GREAT CONCERN THAT...DUE TO THE MIXING AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALL PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING POST-FRONTAL. THIS IS
IN-LINE WITH THE 09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF. HAVE KEPT A LOW...20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST
IN CASE MODELS SPEED UP. HOWEVER...LIKELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ONLY
OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS ON SUNDAY...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS COULD TRY TO GET UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW THINK THEY WILL STAY BELOW...BUT 25KT
WINDS LOOK LIKELY AT DODGE CENTER AND ROCHESTER. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WITH DRYING SOILS AND A LOT OF SUN...ALONG WITH THE
BREEZE...DEEP MIXING LIKE WAS SEEN YESTERDAY SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT NICELY TOO. A
BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE SPEED ISSUES WITH
BOTH THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND PRECEDING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
09.00Z NAM THE FASTEST AND THE 09.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. STILL HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN A LITTLE SLOWER...CLOSER TO THE 09.00Z
UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF GIVEN THE NAM BEING FASTEST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT. IN ANY EVENT...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT NEARLY PARALLELING THE
UPPER FLOW...THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIKELY TO STAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN A DRY AND CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO EITHER BE TIED RIGHT ON THE
FRONT OR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DYNAMICAL AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO BE LIMITED BY A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUMP UP TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY TANK TO
0.5 INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION IS GOING
TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP DRY IN THE MORNING. MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LOOK TO SEE THE MOST PRECIP OVERALL...SINCE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGEST THERE AND SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET LOOKS TO OCCUR. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
80-100 IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...BEST
CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHEN MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE FRONT. BETTER
0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR IS
30-35KT. DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER 0-3KM
SHEAR SUGGESTS WIND IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN THE 13-16C RANGE AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 80S
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN ZONAL WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY. SUBSIDENCE...
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ALL LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TANK TO 4-8C BY 12Z
TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN COOLER PER THE 09.00Z NAM. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
09.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT BEING TEMPORARY. BY THURSDAY...NEW TROUGHING IS SHOWN
TO DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST CANADA...FORCING
RIDGING TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE ZONAL AND RIDGING BUILDING UP
TOWARDS THE REGION. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AND COOLER
THAN OF LATE...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS 7-11C. THE WARM ADVECTION THEN
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY...SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE UP
TOWARDS 16-18C. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ENDS
UP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPS MAY EVEN CLIMB
TOWARDS 20C FOR FRIDAY...SO DEFINITELY A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
NEED A FURTHER BOOST UP OVER THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 09.00Z
ECMWF VERIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PERSIST RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1130 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE WIND ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY WITH WHEN IT BEGINS AND HOW HIGH THE GUSTS
WILL GET TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL START
GUSTING EARLY WITH THE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY AROUND 1Z TOMORROW
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME SPORADIC CIRRUS CLOUDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
FIRST OFF...HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS.
RECORD HIGHS RANGE FROM 93-96 AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THIS MONTH OF JUNE
COULD BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME INDICATORS
INCLUDE:
1. PER JUNE 5TH DROUGHT MONITOR...MUCH OF IOWA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI
ARE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IN TURN LIMITS
EVAPOTRANSPORATION FROM CROPS AND OTHER VEGETATION. IN FACT...THERE
ARE ALREADY REPORTS IN IOWA AND MISSOURI OF CURLING CORN LEAVES AND
SOYBEAN EMERGENCE PROBLEMS.
2. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO FURTHER DRY
OUT VEGETATION...WHICH ALSO IN TURN CAN MIX OUT MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
3. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERN TROUGHING AND STRONG EASTERN RIDGING...
BLOCKING THE AREA FROM SEEING MUCH CONVECTION.
4. MANY CFS MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE REST OF THE MONTH OF JUNE TO
AVERAGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HOPEFULLY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CAN GIVE OUR AREA A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS A DROUGHT MAY SET IN AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE
IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE SOME LOWEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION RECORDS.
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME TO GET MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE
DRY PATTERN...THESE MIGHT BE OF INTEREST.
LA CROSSE...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.06 INCHES.
1. 0.37 INCHES IN 1910
2. 0.98 INCHES IN 1887
3. 1.33 INCHES IN 1989
ROCHESTER...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.08 INCHES.
1. TRACE IN 1910
2. 0.94 INCHES IN 1985
3. 1.08 INCHES IN 1964
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
301 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
929 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ARRIVAL TIMING OF POPS FOR MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PWAT AIR...AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR...IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IN SOUTHWEST IL THIS EVE HAS HELPED TO SPREAD THIS NORTH CAUSING
AN EXPANSION IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR WITH
GOING FORECAST. LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KIND RADAR ARE INDICATIVE OF
GRADUAL MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND SATURATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW. SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FORECASTS KEEP ALMOST ALL
OF THIS ENTIRELY EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
THE FEATURE WHICH WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA IS A WELL-
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S. HIGH PLAINS
BORDER. IMPRESSIVE NORTH-TO-SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO NORTHEAST KS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE COOL FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AND WITHIN
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THETA-E RETURN. THE FRONT AND CONVECTION
AHEAD OF IT WILL EVOLVE EAST INTO OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GRADUALLY
TAPERING IN INTENSITY AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN MO. A PORTION OF THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND THE HRRR SOLUTION
DEPICTS THIS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TOO GENEROUS ON DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET/WAA.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND KS HELPING TO
DRIVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN MOST GUIDANCE...AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. COLLOCATED WITH THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AT LEAST IN THE 925-700MB FLOW...WHICH HELPS IN FOCUSING
SOME OF THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE SIMILAR ON
THE 11.00 NAM TO THOSE MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSION...SO SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION REGENERATING IN COVERAGE DURING THE MIDDAY
TIME IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF TIMING/REASONING. AFTERNOON POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM CDT
FOCUS OF FORECAST IS ON RAIN CHANCES MON AND MON EVE WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEN ON THE VERY LOW...IF
ANY...PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEASTERN MT HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME SHEARED/ELONGATED TODAY...SLOWING ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS A RESULT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT HAVE ALSO BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH ANY VIGOR.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW IS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE AND JET MAX DIG SSE FROM THE YUKON-NW
TERRITORIES BORDER TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT BY 12Z MON.
THIS SHORT WAVE AND SPEED MAX ARE THEN PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY MON. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LINGERING ACROSS NW AND W CENTRAL MN AND FAR SE SD AND NE NE...
WILL ALSO START TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY
BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO SE WI AND NE IL EARLY MON
EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING OR SOON AFTER PEAK HEATING LEADS TO IT OCCURRING WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP
INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT AND MON.
HOWEVER...IF 10.12Z RUN OF GFS VERIFIES WITH THE LAYER FROM 2 TO 4K
FT AGL SOME 3-4 DEG C WARMER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION DURING THE DAY
MON THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INHIBITED BY THE WARMTH ALOFT MAINTAINING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CIN
AND CAPPING AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z MON. NAM HAS MINIMAL CIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THE QPF AND MOS POP VALUES ARE FLIPPED FROM WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT
IS...THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF WHILE THE NAM GENERATES
SOME SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO N CENTRAL IL BOTH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...WITH MOS POPS IN
LOWER END OF CHANCE CATEGORY AND GFS AT HIGH END. HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR MON THOUGH STILL LEFT AT VERY LOW END OF LIKELY WITH
55-60 PCT ACROSS THE FA.
ZONAL FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
BY TUE...AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY WED BRINGING
MILDER AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A MINOR SHORT WAVE
TO TRAVERSE THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
WED NIGHT AND THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STILL HAVE ITS AXIS FROM QUEBEC SW BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD PLACE
ANY THREAT OF RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N OF THE FA.
UPPER RIDGING TO PUSH BACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THU AND FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER FAR WESTERN
NOAM. AFTER MAX TEMPS COOL TO THE 70S FOR A COUPLE DAYS AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
FRI AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE COOLER FROM TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWS NNE FLOW TO TURN IN
OFF OF THE LAKE TUE AND THEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PROVIDES E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE FROM WED ON. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO KEEP AREA
RAIN-FREE TUE THROUGH SAT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN N CENTRAL IL
ON SUN.
WITH THE AREA NOT SEEING ANY LET ALONE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE
THE END OF MAY ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH
COLD FRONT WILL SEE MUCH GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS AS NO ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
TRS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
317 PM CDT
WINDS AND RH VALUES APPROACHING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NO IMPACTS THROUGH 12Z.
* TSRA POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING A CONTINUED FEED OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS. THEN WINDS VEER
WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS IN REGARDS TO TSRA DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH THE PRECISE TIMING/PLACEMENT/INTENSITY...AND MANY
THINGS STILL NEED TO COME TOGETHER. AT THIS TIME THE BEST TIMING
IS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTN/EVE
HOURS...THEN PUSH EAST INTO NORTHERN IN. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUP...AND WILL ALLOW
FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS WE APPROACH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH 16Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 16Z.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF TSRA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
CONSOLIDATE ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THEN THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN MARGINALLY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE LAKE FOR TODAY...THEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
WILL THEN DEEPEN...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED GRADIENT TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND MAY STRETCH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TUE. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TUE FROM A NORTHWEST/NORTH WIND TO BE 15
TO 25 KT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL PROVIDE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE TUE NGT THROUGH
THUR PERIODS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THESE
PERIODS.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
101 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
929 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ARRIVAL TIMING OF POPS FOR MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PWAT AIR...AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR...IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IN SOUTHWEST IL THIS EVE HAS HELPED TO SPREAD THIS NORTH CAUSING
AN EXPANSION IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR WITH
GOING FORECAST. LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KIND RADAR ARE INDICATIVE OF
GRADUAL MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND SATURATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW. SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FORECASTS KEEP ALMOST ALL
OF THIS ENTIRELY EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
THE FEATURE WHICH WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA IS A WELL-
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S. HIGH PLAINS
BORDER. IMPRESSIVE NORTH-TO-SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO NORTHEAST KS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE COOL FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AND WITHIN
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THETA-E RETURN. THE FRONT AND CONVECTION
AHEAD OF IT WILL EVOLVE EAST INTO OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GRADUALLY
TAPERING IN INTENSITY AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN MO. A PORTION OF THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND THE HRRR SOLUTION
DEPICTS THIS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TOO GENEROUS ON DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET/WAA.
THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND KS HELPING TO
DRIVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN MOST GUIDANCE...AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. COLLOCATED WITH THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AT LEAST IN THE 925-700MB FLOW...WHICH HELPS IN FOCUSING
SOME OF THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE SIMILAR ON
THE 11.00 NAM TO THOSE MENTIONED IN PRIOR DISCUSSION...SO SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION REGENERATING IN COVERAGE DURING THE MIDDAY
TIME IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF TIMING/REASONING. AFTERNOON POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM CDT
FOCUS OF FORECAST IS ON RAIN CHANCES MON AND MON EVE WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEN ON THE VERY LOW...IF
ANY...PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEASTERN MT HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME SHEARED/ELONGATED TODAY...SLOWING ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS A RESULT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT HAVE ALSO BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH ANY VIGOR.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW IS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE AND JET MAX DIG SSE FROM THE YUKON-NW
TERRITORIES BORDER TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT BY 12Z MON.
THIS SHORT WAVE AND SPEED MAX ARE THEN PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY MON. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LINGERING ACROSS NW AND W CENTRAL MN AND FAR SE SD AND NE NE...
WILL ALSO START TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY
BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO SE WI AND NE IL EARLY MON
EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING OR SOON AFTER PEAK HEATING LEADS TO IT OCCURRING WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP
INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT AND MON.
HOWEVER...IF 10.12Z RUN OF GFS VERIFIES WITH THE LAYER FROM 2 TO 4K
FT AGL SOME 3-4 DEG C WARMER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION DURING THE DAY
MON THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INHIBITED BY THE WARMTH ALOFT MAINTAINING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CIN
AND CAPPING AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z MON. NAM HAS MINIMAL CIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THE QPF AND MOS POP VALUES ARE FLIPPED FROM WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT
IS...THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF WHILE THE NAM GENERATES
SOME SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO N CENTRAL IL BOTH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...WITH MOS POPS IN
LOWER END OF CHANCE CATEGORY AND GFS AT HIGH END. HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR MON THOUGH STILL LEFT AT VERY LOW END OF LIKELY WITH
55-60 PCT ACROSS THE FA.
ZONAL FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
BY TUE...AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY WED BRINGING
MILDER AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A MINOR SHORT WAVE
TO TRAVERSE THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
WED NIGHT AND THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STILL HAVE ITS AXIS FROM QUEBEC SW BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD PLACE
ANY THREAT OF RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE N OF THE FA.
UPPER RIDGING TO PUSH BACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THU AND FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER FAR WESTERN
NOAM. AFTER MAX TEMPS COOL TO THE 70S FOR A COUPLE DAYS AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
FRI AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE COOLER FROM TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWS NNE FLOW TO TURN IN
OFF OF THE LAKE TUE AND THEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PROVIDES E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE FROM WED ON. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO KEEP AREA
RAIN-FREE TUE THROUGH SAT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN N CENTRAL IL
ON SUN.
WITH THE AREA NOT SEEING ANY LET ALONE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE
THE END OF MAY ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH
COLD FRONT WILL SEE MUCH GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS AS NO ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
TRS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
317 PM CDT
WINDS AND RH VALUES APPROACHING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NO IMPACTS THROUGH 12Z.
* TSRA POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING A CONTINUED FEED OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS. THEN WINDS VEER
WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS IN REGARDS TO TSRA DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH THE PRECISE TIMING/PLACEMENT/INTENSITY...AND MANY
THINGS STILL NEED TO COME TOGETHER. AT THIS TIME THE BEST TIMING
IS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTN/EVE
HOURS...THEN PUSH EAST INTO NORTHERN IN. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUP...AND WILL ALLOW
FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS WE APPROACH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH 16Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFT 16Z.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF TSRA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED FORECAST.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
202 PM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LOW AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE 15-25KTS IS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND AS THE HIGH SPREADS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A LAKE
BREEZE TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT
OUR AREA ON MONDAY WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ORGANIZING ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SEEMS TO BE GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY ACRS SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO SE NEBRASKA
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WAS MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL
PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THRU IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AS IT TRACKS TO EXTREME EASTERN IOWA AND NE MISSOURI TOWARDS
300 AM...AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IL JUST BEFORE DAWN.
THE 00Z ILX AND SGF SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH OUR AREAS IN BETWEEN THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOURCES...WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER WAVE MAINLY ACRS THE EAST AND SE SECTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LOCATED IN A NARROW SW-NE CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE BETTER INSTABILITY FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS WAS LOCATED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO EASTERN KS AND NW MO WHERE SURFACE
BASE CAPES WERE IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/JG OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER STARTING TO ERODE THANKS TO THE INCREASING
SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND JET DYNAMICS. PROPAGATION VECTORS
SUGGEST THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY START TO TURN SE INTO
PARTS OF NW MO AND NE KS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CONVECTION WEAKENS SOME AS IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST.
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO DOES NOT BODE WELL WITH RESPECT TO SEEING SOME
DECENT RAINFALL ACRS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH ACRS WESTERN IL DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY REDEVELOP
ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL AS ANY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DESPITE
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SEEN ON MODELS...NEVER THE LESS...WE SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY BUT THIS CERTAINLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...SO OTHER
THAN THE USUAL EARLY EVENING TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED...AS A RESULT NO ZONE
UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CONVECTION...OR WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING ACRS CENTRAL IOWA AND ANY
AFFECT ON CIGS ACRS OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. TIMING OF PRECIP
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME ACRS THE WEST BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MAY SEE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
I-55 BETWEEN 18Z-22Z WITH COVERAGE STILL LIMITED ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
WITH VCTS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM LATE TOMORROW MORNING OR
EARLY AFTN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z WITH THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE PRECIP. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A SE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AND THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS RUNNING FROM 10 TO 15 KTS. THE WIND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING AS THE FRONT
EDGES ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP ARE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT...THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS TONIGHT...GENERALLY STAYING EAST OF ILLINOIS. HIGH-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ARE KEEPING THE KILX CWA DRY...HOWEVER
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE COMING SO CLOSE TO THE E/SE...HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF I-57 TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE VALUES OF 1500
TO 2500J/KG. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LACK OF WIND SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND VERY WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 25KT.
DESPITE LACK OF SHEAR...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND GOOD CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. PRIMARY TIME FRAME
WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55...AND
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY EXIT
INTO INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAWN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
12 TO 14C RANGE...HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST. EXACT EVOLUTION AND
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FEATURED ON EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. 12Z 10 JUN GFS IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPS A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED PERHAPS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACHIEVED.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING
SOME RAIN TO THE AREA...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN AND DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT 01Z.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE TO MAKE SOME REFINEMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SUPPORTED BY MOST RECENT SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE. GREATER COVERAGE TO RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTH INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA
CURRENTLY. RAP APPEARS TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY WELL THIS
EVENING...TRACKING IT N/NE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP LATE. DROPPED BACK TO LOW CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO REMOVED
ISOLATED THUNDER FROM ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH ONLY
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE VALUES PRESENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PRECIP SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND STANDS OUT...SO WENT CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF.
UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LOW END
LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THUS WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THEN TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING. THUS AGAIN ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
ON MONDAY AS NOTED ABOVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
DURING THE DAY. STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEPICT A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THEREFORE...REMOVED ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND CONTINUED WITH AN ENTIRELY DRY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO
RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE 040-050 RANGE DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. LIFT
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB WINDS
GENERALLY WEAK. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNRISE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KIND/KBMG...BUT
WITH THE DISORGANIZED LIFT...ONLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS. HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE AS WELL.
A BETTER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE TAF
SITES AFTER ABOUT 112000Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL ZONE/UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE WEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....HOMANN/50
AVIATION...JAS/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES IN FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...WHICH LIES FROM ROUGHLY FROM KDSM TO KTOP
TO KWLD AT 08Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WERE REPORTED AT KMHK AT 08Z
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOWING NEAR THE KTWX RADAR. MUCH DRIER AIR
NOT FAR BEHIND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND LOWER 30S IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. WEAK MID LEVEL
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON WESTERN KANSAS RADARS BUT LITTLE NEARING THE
SURFACE IN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. 0Z 850MB TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE
TO 20C THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING STATES...THOUGH TEMPS BELOW 10C
WERE SAMPLED IN MONTANA.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HRRR AND RUC WITH CONVECTION SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS MOVES IN. WESTERN MID LEVEL RETURNS SHOULD ENCOUNTER THIS
DRIER AIR AND STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES ITS TIME GETTING HERE HOWEVER...WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED LEVELS
COMING LATE IN THE DAY. WITH SOME EARLY DAY HIGH CLOUD AS
WELL...THIS MAY KEEP NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER
80S ALONG I-70 WHERE EARLY DAY DEBRIS IS MORE REMOVED AND BETTER
CALL WILL HOLD OFF LONGER.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PERIODS LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA AND 700-850MB RIDGING OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUD MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. COMBINED FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME CONVECTION...THOUGH COVERAGE IS MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS POINT. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP STRONG INSTABILITY IN CHECK.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RULE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SITUATION. FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM APPEAR LACKING...BUT ALSO LACKING IS STRONG CAPPING. SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR MID JUNE...
WILL BE KEPT FOR THE BULK OF THESE PERIODS WITH TEMPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL.
65
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 06Z TAKING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT SO HAVE WENT WITH A DRY FCST
AT ALL TAFS SITES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY STILL SERVE TO
DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BEFORE 09Z...BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS. FRONT AND OUTFLOW
COMBINATION WILL KEEP NORTH/NORTH WINDS THROUGH 12Z AND THEN INCREASE
SLIGHTLY. ONLY SCT-BKN STRATOCU THROUGH 12Z THEN A FEW AC BEYOND 12Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
WELL...RADAR CONTINUES TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SWRN
COUNTIES BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT VERY LITTLE OF THIS IS REACHING
THE GROUND. MODELS CONTINUE TO RUN AMUCK WITH PRECIP OVERNIGHT BUT
GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE OVER DOING THINGS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
WILL GO AHEAD AND SCALE POPS BACK A BIT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
WILL ALSO KEEP SOME CHANCES IN FOR AROUND DAYBREAK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LATEST NAM AND RUC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY BE
DUE TO THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING (DRYING) FLOW. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...MUCH OF THE AREA MAY GET ROBBED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY NOT FEEL THIS INFLUENCE
AS MUCH WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THE NAM DEPICTION OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ACROSS
OUR NORTH SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT AND THESE WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
BEYOND. AGAIN...NOT SURE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO
THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED AS IT TOO COULD FALL APART AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. REGARDLESS...STILL A BIT OF A CHANCE WE
COULD END UP STAYING DRY IN SEVERAL AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
PERHAPS WELL INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LOOKING AT ALL AVENUES IN WHICH WE COULD ACHIEVE THUNDER TONIGHT CAME
BACK NEGATIVE. LIFTING PARCELS FROM MANY DIFFERENT LEVELS COULD NOT
GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THUNDER LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
ANTICIPATING NEW DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO MORE
RAIN SHOWERS. IT WOULD TAKE SOME PRETTY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO GET
MOISTURE ABOVE THE VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...THUS...FEEL SAFE
REMOVING THUNDER. STILL NOT CONFIDENT TO GO ANY HIGHER WITH
POPS...BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER WITH A LATER UPDATE IF THINGS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO WAIT
AND SEE AND STICK WITH OUR 60 TO 70 POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER AROUND 1 OR 2
AM...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING THE I-64 CORRIDOR BY 4 OR 5
AM...AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AROUND DAYBREAK. AFTER THE INITIAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN...IT APPEARS WE COULD DRY OUT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE TOMORROW MORNING...LEADING TO A DRIER PERIOD DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THEN WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO
REFIRE THINGS IN THE AFTERNOON IF WE DON`T HAVE TOO MANY CLOUDS
AROUND TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS...STILL
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS SWIRLING AROUND TOMORROW`S FORECAST. GOING TO
HOLD OFF TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AS MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SPRINKLES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY FOR THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE AROUND 5KFT...SO I
IMAGINE A FEW DROPS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST FORCING WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE TARGETED AREAS EARLY...WILL BE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER WITH THE THREAT FOR RAIN PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. DOWNSLOPING MAY KEEP INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE FORCING
SHOULD WIN OUT. LOWER CLOUD DECK HAS BROUGHT SOME EARLIER COOLING
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRACE TO REFLECT THIS EARLIER COOLING. NO NEED TO UPDATE ZONES WITH
ANY OF THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND OCCLUDING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...LINKED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE PLAINS. ALOFT...PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN FEEDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW-
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE GULF COAST FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...A MORE STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SCOURING OUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS TRIED TO MAKE IT IN FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED THUS FAR. THIS TREND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE GULF WAVE
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS IT GETS GRADUALLY INGESTED INTO THE MAIN WESTERLIES BY THE MORE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODEST FORCING.
DESPITE VERY HIGH PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HAS BEEN
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION WITH SO
MUCH CLOUD COVER...SO AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
REALIZED. STILL...WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN IN PLACE...IT CERTAINLY
CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER BAGGY LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS AT 500 MB WITH RIDGING TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHILE STUBBORN
TROUGHINESS HANGS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BRING THE EARLY WEEK RAINS WILL BE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BROAD...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND OUR DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE PRECIP FREE FOR MOST FOLKS AS A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND PWATS ONLY REBOUND TO AROUND AN INCH SO
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE QPF...AT LEAST ON THIS SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE. AS SUCH...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
TO JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG THE TN AND VA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY SNEAK INTO THE 50S MOST NIGHTS IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOWERING WITH -RA POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
12Z AND WHAT THE END RESULT WILL BE ON FLIGHT CATS..BUT AM EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY AS -SHRA BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS ERN KY. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDER DURING THE DAY AS WELL...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
HERE AS WELL WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS WITH VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENCROACHING ON THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE TSTMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS/MB
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MN
DIMINISHED AS THEY APPROACHED UPPER MI EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING RIBBON OF MUCAPE WHICH HAS RECENTLY INCREASED
TO 500-1000J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TSRA WHICH ARE SPREADING/DEVELOPING NE INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
AS OF 09Z.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS GIVEN AVBL INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR
THE W BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR TODAY. TO THE E...DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. UTILIZING MODIFIED NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR T/TD
OF MID 80S/LWR 60S PRIOR TO MODEL GENERATED PCPN (GFS SOUNDING
CONTAMINATED BY PCPN) YIELDS SBCAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR WX. HIGH RES MODELS GIVE CONFLICTING
SIGNALS ABOUT WHETHER CONVECTION WILL REDVELOP AS SEVERAL INDICATE
LITTLE OR NO REGENERATION TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO MENTION AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 06Z LOCAL HIGH RES WRF AND 4KM NAM ARE
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA AS THEY SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN SPREADING E. APPEARS
THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY CRYSTAL FALLS TO ISHPEMING EASTWARD WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS THIS AFTN. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LOWER TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES
WITH SRLY FLOW/MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE LAKE.
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI
BEHIND FRONT. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST DWPTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S WHICH RESULTS IN RH FALLING TO AROUND 30PCT THIS AFTN.
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH THIS AFTN...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS NOT
OCCURRED RECENTLY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE FROM WRN HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL MN...WITH A SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL NRN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL STRETCH S TO
CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE
MOVING IN AROUND THIS TIME DURING LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT...BUT I THINK THE DRY AIR WILL KEEP THAT FROM
HAPPENING. WILL DEPICT PRECIP WITH CHANCE POPS MOVING OUT OF THE CWA
BY 06Z TUE.
BY 12Z TUE...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE FROM ERN
HUDSON BAY TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WRN MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF
THE CWA...WITH GOOD CAA IN THE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3C E AND -1C W. BY 18Z TUE...THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA...WITH THE SFC HIGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z WILL RANGE
FROM -2C N TO 2C S. BY 00Z WED...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER
FAR ERN UPPER MI...WHILE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND 825MB TUE...RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE 50S N TO 60S S...AND LOW DEW PTS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO FROST POTENTIAL AS COOL TEMPS TUE DROP QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WENT WITH THE LOW SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF FROST IN HWO.
WED THROUGH FRI...THE SFC HIGH MOVES E WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR W IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. THE
RESULTING SLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGS OFF AND ON CONVECTION
FROM LATE WED THROUGH FRI...BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THAT STAYING
W OF THE CWA AND INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP FORECAST FOR
UPPER MI DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DRIER PATTERN HAS VERIFIED
BETTER RECENTLY...AND MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY ANYWAYS. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S...BRINGING STEADILY
INCREASING TEMPS WED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. BY FRI...850MB TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP TO 16C...THEN UP TO 18C ON SAT AND SUN. MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z/10 ECMWF BRINGING A
TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE NW...WHILE THE 00Z/11 GFS KEEPS THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KIWD EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINAL THAT ANY TSRA WILL OCCUR SO WERE NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN. WEST WINDS COULD BECOMING GUSTY AND PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY
AT KCMX AND KIWD BY EVENING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...S WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS WILL SEE WINDS TO AROUND 30KT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...A PUSH OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO 25-30KT WILL
ARRIVE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MID/LATE AFTN. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE WITH WINDS FALLING BLO 15KT TUE
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WED THRU FRI
SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT AS PRES GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK BTWN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SETTING UP WELL TO THE W AND
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
411 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight-Wednesday)
Overnight, the focus was on two lines of convection: the leading
line being the advancing gust front and the second line being
focused along the cold front. The showers and thunderstorms along
the gust front continued to weaken through the overnight hours, with
the bit of remnant activity tracking southeast of the Missouri River
by 09Z. The better area of convective activity was focused along the
cold front that was stretching roughly along a line from North
Kansas City to Cameron and Bethany around 09Z. The activity was
remaining well below severe limits with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, weak
shear, and poor lapse rates present. This line of thunderstorms had
been fairly slow-moving, but has become a bit more progressive toward
the southeast with the help of 20-25kt 850mb winds. This slow
tracking was resulting in higher rainfall rates across extreme
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, with some locations likely
accumulating more than one inch of rain within an hour. HRRR shows
the line of thunderstorms stretching along a Kansas City to
Chillicothe line by around 10Z, progressing just south of the
Missouri River by around 13Z. Short range models are in fairly good
agreement that this thunderstorm activity will shift southeast of the
forecast area late this morning, but cannot rule out a few lingering
showers and thunderstorms across central Missouri early this
afternoon.
Winds will shift to the northwest behind the advancing cold front.
However, cold air advection behind the cold front will be limited
today so should see afternoon temperatures still warmer than normal
-- into the middle 80s. High pressure will build in across the
Northern and Central Plains later this afternoon and track toward
the Great Lakes region by the middle of the week, keeping conditions
dry. Temperatures look to be near to slightly above seasonal normals
through Wednesday as winds shift from northeast to southeast with
the eastward-moving surface high.
As the upper level trough over the Northern Plains progresses toward
the northern Great Lakes, a more zonal flow will set up across the
western and central CONUS through mid-week. Models have shown the
potential for a few disturbances to develop within the zonal flow
primarily west of the forecast area across Kansas. Confidence is low
in whether or not any of these impulses will spread enough eastward
to clip eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri Wednesday and
Wednesday night, so have nothing more than slight chance pops in for
that area.
ACH
Medium Range (Thursday through Sunday)...
Prefer a wait and see approach as it relates to rain chances during
the medium range period. The 00z ECMWF and GFS build mid level
heights, with the ECMWF developing a closed high, across the mid MO
River Valley while a western U.S. trough builds. While it`s
certainly possible a weak vorticity lobe or two will meander across
the Central Plains Thursday or Friday within a chaotic and weak
westerly flow coming out of the Rockies, confidence is low on just
how much convection, if any can make it into the CWA. Agree with the
previous discussion in favoring the drier ECMWF over the relatively
wet GFS. As such can only justify slight chance pops until the end
late Sunday when falling heights across the Plains in response to
the approaching upper trough offers some hope that increasing
dynamics will generate some scattered convection.
A gradual warm up on temperatures and dewpoints continues to look in
order with readings in the upper 80s/90 by the weekend.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
Convection percolating along and behind front will continue for the
next few hours over the terminals as the front lays out more east
west. Shear is weak and gust front getting out ahead will keep storms
below severe levels but as new elevated storms develop the terminals
will be in and out of MVFR until around daybreak. Adolphson
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE FOR POPS. SLIGHTLY
DELAYED TO POPS ARRIVAL OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOOURI. STRONG CAP
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
AT THIS TIME. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE LOCAL LSX WRF AND HRRR IN
SOME FORM HAS THE BEST SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE NSSL-NCEP WRF
MODEL. HRRR APPEARS TO BE TO SHOW VERY STRONG REFELCTVITY
ORGANIZATION WHICH MIGHT BE SUSPECT GIVEN THE EVENING ENVIRONMENT.
LIKE THE LOCAL WRF THE BEST. STILL BELIEVE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. AS
CONVECTION GENERALLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI IT
WILL HAVE SOME PROBLEMS MAINTAIN LINE STRUCTURE DUE TO WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO EVOLVE. COMPARING CURRENT
CASE TO PREVIOUS LINE CASES THIS EVENING. LINE-TO WEAK BROAD
BOWING REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY 11 TO 13 UTC.
PRZYBYLINSKI
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(TONIGHT)
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP THE SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN BUT THE BULK
OF ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA/MS
AS IT LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SEWD
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE CWA. PCPN MAY NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD
GIVEN THE LIMITED DYNAMICS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(TONIGHT)
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP THE SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN BUT THE BULK
OF ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA/MS
AS IT LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SEWD
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE CWA. PCPN MAY NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD
GIVEN THE LIMITED DYNAMICS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED BY MONDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR N...AND WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL
THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU MAINLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HI PRES THEN DOMINATING THE REGION
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS OUR BEST CHC FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT WEEK... AND
EVEN THEN...IT ISN/T AS MUCH OF A SLAM DUNK AS ONE WOULD THINK.
WHILE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE DECENTLY RICH WITH
SFC DWPTS PUSHING 70F...H850 DWPTS BETWEEN 13-16C...AND PWATS AROUND
1.75" WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMO AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...LIFTING MECHANISMS DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD AND SCENARIOS TO BRING THIS ABOUT DEPICTED BY MODELS DO
NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE. FIRST...SYNOPTIC SETUP OF CD FROPA WILL
FEATURE /LAND-BETWEEN-THE-LOWS/ WHICH WILL FEATURE WEAK LO LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH A RAPID PUNCH OF RIDGING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK IF MODEL SIGNALS ARE CORRECT...AND IF
INCORRECT WOULD MEAN JUST MODEL NOISE. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE
EXPICIT 4KM WRF MODELS (BOTH NMM AND ARW) ARE SHOWING CDFNT AND DRY
LINE LIGHTING UP TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN PART REMAINING THE MOST
ACTIVE AND DIVING THRU SWRN MO...PUSHING AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THRU
MUCH OF THE FA BEFORE THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN IN THE FAR ERN FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS HARD TO BUY FULLY INTO THE EXPLICIT
MODELS...THE MESSAGE IS THAT OF NOT HI CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHCS AS
WELL AS KEEPING IN MIND THE ONGOING MILD-MODERATE DROUGHT IN THE
AREA. HAVE ONCE AGAIN CAPPED POPS AT 50PCT AREAWIDE AND JUST
DIFFERENTIATED IN ROUGH TIMING OF BEST CHCS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHCS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ON MONDAY...BUT
OVERALL PREFERRED THE HIGHER MET MOS NUMBERS.
SHOULD SEE DRY WX TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH ORDINARILY
ZONAL FLOW IN JUNE WOULD GIVE ONE CAUSE FOR PAUSE. LO PWATS AND HI
PRES IN CONTROL SHOULD ENSURE THAT...ALTHOUGH THE VACATING SFC HI ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY LET SOMETHING SLIP THRU WITH BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN THAT AND RETURN OF UPPER RIDGE...WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THAT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN RETURN IN FORCE THURSDAY THRU NEXT
SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN OF THE HEAT OF COURSE. HAVE MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90F GOING EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ON...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 3-4F WARMER. THERE ARE VERY
WEAK SIGNALS FOR RAIN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD BUT OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION OF A PULSE NATURE FROM
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED TO AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. PROBABILITIES ARE LO ENOUGH TO
LIMIT TO 20PCT OR LESS...AND THUS SILENT ON THE FCST. MODELS
ATTEMPT TO BREAK RIDGE DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT BY DIFFERENT
MEANS...BUT RESULT MAY BE THE SAME. HAVE EDGED BACK 30PCT CHC FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY BUT THIS IS EVEN SCALED BACK FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
SHOWING AS SOMETHING DOESN/T QUITE LOOK RIGHT ABOUT IT.
TES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN
09Z-10Z. UNCERTAIN HOW EXTENSIVE THE COVERAGE WILL BE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AFTER SUNRISE. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE SINCE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY. THINK WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...AREAS OF CIGS BETWEEN 2000-3000FT ARE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STL METRO AREA. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A MVFR DECK BETWEEN
2000-3000FT DEVELOPING AROUND KFAM. LOOKS LIKE THE DECK MAY PASS
EAST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BREAK UP
AND LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY AFTER 12Z...NOT SURE WHAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE SO
WILL CONTINUE VCTS WORDING INSTEAD OF TEMPO. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT FINALLY ENDING WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1254 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
LATEST IR SAT AND RUC13 DATA SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SLOWLY NE TOWARDS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING FROM NEAR COLUMBUS MS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO
DECLINE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH
06Z WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCTD SHWRS AND TSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AT BEST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONLY A FEW SPOTS WILL EVEN SEE THIS ACTIVITY.
TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO MATCH CURRENT READINGS WITH FORECAST
LOWS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT. --ABS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE...HOWEVER WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
BEEN HINDERING CONVECTION...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
HAVE BEEN LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. NOT
CONFIDENT WITH THE 12Z MODELS THAT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN QPF
AMOUNTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 11/00Z. THEY MAY
RECEIVE THAT AMOUNT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT
THAT`S ALL. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE FAVORED FOR AN OCCASIONAL CLAP
OF THUNDER...BUT STRONG STORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY. MOST MIDSOUTHERNERS
HOWEVER WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY
SUNSET ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE AREA
WIDE...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST
NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE VOLUNTEER STATE AS
A MAJOR SHORTWAVE IN THE MAIN JET FLOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ENERGY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH WEST OF THE RIVER ARE ZONED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT CROSSES THE OZARKS. LIFTED INDICES NEAR -10C ARE
PROGGED FOR LATE TOMORROW AND NEARLY THAT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
ANY WORDING FOR A STRONG STORM FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...BUT KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS A BIT TRICKY FOR MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ABUNDANT IN THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EURO
AND NAM WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS. SAME SITUATION ON TUESDAY AS
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE REGION ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS USHERING
IN ON NORTHEAST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID
JUNE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL
STILL BE FOUND.
NEXT WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY BACK TO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH ISOLATED SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
OVERNIGHT...STILL THINK IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KTUP
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND FOG...MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT KMEM
AND KJBR. CONDITIONS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER MID-MORNING
MONDAY BECOMING MOSTLY VFR AFTER 18Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED DECIDED TO ADD VCTS TO THE TAFS AFTER 20Z-21Z.
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCTS AT KMEM...KMKL..AND KJBR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH 12/06Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT KTUP KEPT VCTS IN UNTIL 12/02Z THEN REMOVED IT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SE-S WINDS 3-7 KTS TONIGHT BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS MONDAY...THEN AFTER
12/00Z GENERALLY SW 5 KTS.
JCL/KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 87 66 86 / 50 40 10 10
MKL 69 86 61 85 / 50 40 10 0
JBR 69 86 62 86 / 50 20 10 0
TUP 72 87 64 88 / 50 50 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
WITH TROUGHING IN-BETWEEN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN MN SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
WHICH IS EVIDENT BY A DEEP DRY SLOT ON WATER VAPOR AND CLEAR SKIES
ON IR IMAGERY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IN THE DRY SLOT WAS VERY DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.51 INCHES. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA
OF CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN WI SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND TO THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE...DUE TO
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN IN 925 AND 850MB PROFILER DATA.
CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER MN LAST EVENING HAS WEAKENED...DUE TO THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTING
SOUTH...DECREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AS WELL AS
RAP LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS INDICATING WEAKENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS AN MCV RIDING
NORTHEAST...ENTERING THE LA CROSSE AREA AS OF 08Z. ON ITS SOUTHEAST
SIDE...THE COMBINATION OF DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS
AND STORMS LINED ORTHOGONAL TO THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR HAS HELPED
PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS PRESENT JUST BEHIND THE CONVECTION...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO TO LA CROSSE WI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PRESENT IN NORTHWEST MN. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATION SHOWED LOW CLOUDS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT...BEING PROPELLED BY THE CURRENT POTENT SHORTWAVE IN MN AND
A SECOND ONE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO MANITOBA...NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME OF THE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY TONIGHT. IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE TROUGH TO BRING A COOL DOWN
FROM WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN LATELY. FIRST ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS 11.00Z NAM SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE COMPLETELY
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AS
INSTABILITY TRIES TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE IT
CONVECTS...LIKELY BETWEEN 18-21Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS COMES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND IT. NO PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED...BUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS AS SEEN BACK IN THE DAKOTAS
SHOULD FILTER IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME CELLULAR RESULTING
FROM THE STRONG JUNE SUN...THUS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING IN
THE EVENING. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-16C AT 18Z PLUS PLENTY OF SUN AND DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
ONCE THE SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN. BETTER TEMPERATURE FALL EXPECTED
TONIGHT AIDED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. BY 12Z TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
DROP AT LEAST DOWN TO 4-7C...AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...RESULTING IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TURN
ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGHING LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...A SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED TO REACH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE COULD GET
INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 INCH OR
LESS SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR WARMING...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY STRUGGLE
GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO STILL BE AT 4-7C AT 18Z. IN
FACT...TAYLOR COUNTY MAY ONLY BE AROUND 2C. THESE ARE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A RESULT...ONLY FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S...20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO TANK FROM MIXING OF THE DRY AIR. SHOULD BE BREEZY TOO IN
THE MORNING ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING TO CALM WINDS. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
WISCONSIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS IN
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE RETURN FLOW AND CLOUDS COME IN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO AMPLIFY
AGAIN AS TROUGHING DROPS DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS AMPLIFICATION SHOULD HELP TAKE THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS COMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
IT WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY 00Z THURSDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE IT
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS AN ISSUE. INCREASING
305-310 K ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD SPREAD MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMITING HEATING SOMEWHAT...DESPITE WARMER 850MB TEMPS IN THE
8-12C RANGE. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY COULD BE IF FULL SUN WAS OBSERVED. THE
CLOUDS DO LOOK TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS
INTO ONTARIO. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS GIVEN NO STRONG
SIGNAL TO GO COLDER OR WARMER.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
11.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND IN FACT ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS IS THAT TROUGHING
WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
TROUGH DIGGING MORE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
REALLY STRENGTHENS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE TROUGH WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THUS...OVERALL MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS DRY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE MOSTLY STEM FROM BEING
ON THE NOSE OF SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHORTWAVES COMING CLOSE
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE CHANCES MAY BE ABLE TO
BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER. ONE OTHER
PERIOD TO WATCH IS THURSDAY WITH THE 11.00Z ECMWF BEING REALLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER MN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO A SURGE OF WARM...MOIST AIR OCCURRING WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGING. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL DOES NOT BRING THE PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA AND OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING DRIER...HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY.
WHAT COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE AREA NOW STRONGLY FORECAST TO BE UNDER
RIDGING...AND IN BROAD BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH ANOTHER LONG STRETCH OF 80S AND PERHAPS 90S. NEW ECMWF REALLY
CAME IN WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HOVERING
AROUND 20C OR SO...RESULTING IN HIGHS OF 90-95. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AND THESE MAY STILL BE TOO
COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN TO
MASON CITY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF
CONVECTION WITH SOME INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR THOUGH CEILINGS MAY DROP DOWN TO
BETWEEN 2-3KFT FOR A PERIOD AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER THE FRONT AND CONVECTION
PASSES THROUGH...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG TO FORM AT RST OR LSE
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1108 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND N AND
W...ACROSS NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
HELDERBERGS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
OBS...12Z UA SOUNDINGS...AND LATEST RAP/HRRR. FIRST WAS TO EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHC POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POCKETS OF FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO A WEAK
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING A SLIGHTLY COOLER MODIFIED MARINE AIR MASS
TO THE E AND S...FROM A WARMER...MORE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE
N AND W.
ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS COVERAGE AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODIFIED MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO WORK N AND
W...MAX TEMPS MAY FAIL TO REACH 80 ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
GREENS...LITCHFIELD CO AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT MAXES TO REACH 80-85 ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND MID 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N AND W THE LOWER CLOUDS REACH...AS
THIS MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS/TOWARD
LOWER VALUES/WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD MORE CLOUDS FORM.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPSTREAM NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO MIGRATE FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALONG WITH ITS
APPROACH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AN
ENTRAINMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE ATLANTIC YET RATHER DRY
BETWEEN 850-500MB TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WEST OF THE REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO >40KTS TO ASSIST WITH RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE CWFA. NCEP MODEL SUITE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL VALUES PER THE SHOWALTERS STILL
SUPPORT EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB IN
EXCESS OF 1.75" WITH UPSTREAM VALUES CLOSE TO 2.00". THESE VALUES
ARE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS...NW CT INTO THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...RATHER HIGH POPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER DUE TO THE
MARINE INFLUENCE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...THOSE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER LONGER UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO
BE A DRIER DAY. WHILE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY...LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
BIT MORE MOIST DUE TO THE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY EVENT AND LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORIES. SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
OUT ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PTSUNNY DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WHICH
DOWNPLAYS THE COOLER VALUES WITHIN THE GFS MOS AND THE MUCH WARMER
VALUES SEEN IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING THE MID WEEK WET WEATHER WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WON/T MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP OUT TO SEA...IT LOOKS TO GENERALLY
WASH OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. ALSO...WHILE
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT...THE LATEST 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW A WEAK LOW REMAINING
OFF THE COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE WE STILL MAY HAVE A LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION /ESP FOR EASTERN AREAS/ FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH. SKIES LOOK TO RANGE FROM
PARTLY CLOUDY IN WESTERN AREAS...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...DUE TO THE WEAK NE SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR WED NIGHT...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IT LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR AREA
TO BE OF ANY CONCERN FOR US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION FROM FIRING UP...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY ONWARD. VALLEY MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WARMER AND
WARMER EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY...LOW 80S FOR
SATURDAY...AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY. SKIES GENERALLY LOOK
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. AT THIS POINT...DEWPOINTS DON/T LOOK
TOO MUGGY JUST YET...WITH TDS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS OF 3-5 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND...PREVENTED ANY IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME
AT KPOU...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SCT DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITHIN DAYTIME
HEATING BY THE LATE MORNING. SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL
FOG FROM DEVELOPING...KEEPING FLYING CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO MOVE INTO KPOU FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NT...VFR TO MVFR. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY.
WED...VFR/MVFR. SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY.
THU/FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH TODAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. MINIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT
REBOUND TO GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT.
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY TO FURTHER REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A ROBUST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THAT SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
THE RAINFALL TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS....BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. PWAT ANOMALIES OF 2
TO 3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...A >40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES...AND THUS EXPECTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS FOR THE EVENT AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. LATEST RUN OF THE
MMEFS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH NO POINTS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND N AND
W...ACROSS NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
HELDERBERGS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
OBS...12Z UA SOUNDINGS...AND LATEST RAP/HRRR. FIRST WAS TO EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHC POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POCKETS OF FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO A WEAK
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING A SLIGHTLY COOLER MODIFIED MARINE AIR MASS
TO THE E AND S...FROM A WARMER...MORE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE
N AND W.
ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS COVERAGE AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODIFIED MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO WORK N AND
W...MAX TEMPS MAY FAIL TO REACH 80 ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
GREENS...LITCHFIELD CO AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT MAXES TO REACH 80-85 ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND MID 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.
WILL WIL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N AND W THE LOWER CLOUDS REACH...AS
THIS MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS/TOWARD
LOWER VALUES/WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD MORE CLOUDS FORM.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPSTREAM NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO MIGRATE FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALONG WITH ITS
APPROACH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AN
ENTRAINMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE ATLANTIC YET RATHER DRY
BETWEEN 850-500MB TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WEST OF THE REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO >40KTS TO ASSIST WITH RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE CWFA. NCEP MODEL SUITE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL VALUES PER THE SHOWALTERS STILL
SUPPORT EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB IN
EXCESS OF 1.75" WITH UPSTREAM VALUES CLOSE TO 2.00". THESE VALUES
ARE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS...NW CT INTO THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...RATHER HIGH POPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER DUE TO THE
MARINE INFLUENCE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...THOSE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER LONGER UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO
BE A DRIER DAY. WHILE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY...LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
BIT MORE MOIST DUE TO THE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY EVENT AND LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORIES. SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
OUT ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PTSUNNY DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WHICH
DOWNPLAYS THE COOLER VALUES WITHIN THE GFS MOS AND THE MUCH WARMER
VALUES SEEN IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING THE MID WEEK WET WEATHER WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WON/T MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP OUT TO SEA...IT LOOKS TO GENERALLY
WASH OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. ALSO...WHILE
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT...THE LATEST 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW A WEAK LOW REMAINING
OFF THE COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE WE STILL MAY HAVE A LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION /ESP FOR EASTERN AREAS/ FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH. SKIES LOOK TO RANGE FROM
PARTLY CLOUDY IN WESTERN AREAS...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...DUE TO THE WEAK NE SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR WED NIGHT...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IT LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR AREA
TO BE OF ANY CONCERN FOR US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION FROM FIRING UP...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY ONWARD. VALLEY MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WARMER AND
WARMER EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY...LOW 80S FOR
SATURDAY...AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY. SKIES GENERALLY LOOK
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. AT THIS POINT...DEWPOINTS DON/T LOOK
TOO MUGGY JUST YET...WITH TDS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS OF 3-5 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND...PREVENTED ANY IFR FOG FROM
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME
AT KPOU...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SCT DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITHIN DAYTIME
HEATING BY THE LATE MORNING. SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL
FOG FROM DEVELOPING...KEEPING FLYING CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO MOVE INTO KPOU FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NT...VFR TO MVFR. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY.
WED...VFR/MVFR. SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY.
THU/FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH TODAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. MINIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT
REBOUND TO GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT.
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY TO FURTHER REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A ROBUST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THAT SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
THE RAINFALL TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS....BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. PWAT ANOMALIES OF 2
TO 3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...A >40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES...AND THUS EXPECTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS FOR THE EVENT AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. LATEST RUN OF THE
MMEFS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH NO POINTS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES IN FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...WHICH LIES FROM ROUGHLY FROM KDSM TO KTOP
TO KWLD AT 08Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WERE REPORTED AT KMHK AT 08Z
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOWING NEAR THE KTWX RADAR. MUCH DRIER AIR
NOT FAR BEHIND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND LOWER 30S IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. WEAK MID LEVEL
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON WESTERN KANSAS RADARS BUT LITTLE NEARING THE
SURFACE IN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. 0Z 850MB TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE
TO 20C THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING STATES...THOUGH TEMPS BELOW 10C
WERE SAMPLED IN MONTANA.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HRRR AND RUC WITH CONVECTION SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS MOVES IN. WESTERN MID LEVEL RETURNS SHOULD ENCOUNTER THIS
DRIER AIR AND STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES ITS TIME GETTING HERE HOWEVER...WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED LEVELS
COMING LATE IN THE DAY. WITH SOME EARLY DAY HIGH CLOUD AS
WELL...THIS MAY KEEP NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER
80S ALONG I-70 WHERE EARLY DAY DEBRIS IS MORE REMOVED AND BETTER
CALL WILL HOLD OFF LONGER.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PERIODS LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA AND 700-850MB RIDGING OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUD MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. COMBINED FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME CONVECTION...THOUGH COVERAGE IS MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS POINT. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP STRONG INSTABILITY IN CHECK.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RULE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SITUATION. FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM APPEAR LACKING...BUT ALSO LACKING IS STRONG CAPPING. SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR MID JUNE...
WILL BE KEPT FOR THE BULK OF THESE PERIODS WITH TEMPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL.
65
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TOP AND FOE
TERMINALS. A MID CLOUD DECK QWITH SOME LOWER STRATUS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY 15Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
12/01Z THEN BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KTS.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MN
DIMINISHED AS THEY APPROACHED UPPER MI EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING RIBBON OF MUCAPE WHICH HAS RECENTLY INCREASED
TO 500-1000J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TSRA WHICH ARE SPREADING/DEVELOPING NE INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
AS OF 09Z.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS GIVEN AVBL INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR
THE W BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR TODAY. TO THE E...DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. UTILIZING MODIFIED NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR T/TD
OF MID 80S/LWR 60S PRIOR TO MODEL GENERATED PCPN (GFS SOUNDING
CONTAMINATED BY PCPN) YIELDS SBCAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR WX. HIGH RES MODELS GIVE CONFLICTING
SIGNALS ABOUT WHETHER CONVECTION WILL REDVELOP AS SEVERAL INDICATE
LITTLE OR NO REGENERATION TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO MENTION AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 06Z LOCAL HIGH RES WRF AND 4KM NAM ARE
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA AS THEY SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN SPREADING E. APPEARS
THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY CRYSTAL FALLS TO ISHPEMING EASTWARD WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS THIS AFTN. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LOWER TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES
WITH SRLY FLOW/MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE LAKE.
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI
BEHIND FRONT. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST DWPTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S WHICH RESULTS IN RH FALLING TO AROUND 30PCT THIS AFTN.
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH THIS AFTN...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS NOT
OCCURRED RECENTLY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE FROM WRN HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL MN...WITH A SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL NRN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL STRETCH S TO
CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE
MOVING IN AROUND THIS TIME DURING LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT...BUT I THINK THE DRY AIR WILL KEEP THAT FROM
HAPPENING. WILL DEPICT PRECIP WITH CHANCE POPS MOVING OUT OF THE CWA
BY 06Z TUE.
BY 12Z TUE...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE FROM ERN
HUDSON BAY TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WRN MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF
THE CWA...WITH GOOD CAA IN THE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3C E AND -1C W. BY 18Z TUE...THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA...WITH THE SFC HIGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z WILL RANGE
FROM -2C N TO 2C S. BY 00Z WED...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER
FAR ERN UPPER MI...WHILE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND 825MB TUE...RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE 50S N TO 60S S...AND LOW DEW PTS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO FROST POTENTIAL AS COOL TEMPS TUE DROP QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WENT WITH THE LOW SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF FROST IN HWO.
WED THROUGH FRI...THE SFC HIGH MOVES E WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR W IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. THE
RESULTING SLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGS OFF AND ON CONVECTION
FROM LATE WED THROUGH FRI...BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THAT STAYING
W OF THE CWA AND INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP FORECAST FOR
UPPER MI DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DRIER PATTERN HAS VERIFIED
BETTER RECENTLY...AND MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY ANYWAYS. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S...BRINGING STEADILY
INCREASING TEMPS WED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. BY FRI...850MB TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP TO 16C...THEN UP TO 18C ON SAT AND SUN. MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z/10 ECMWF BRINGING A
TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE NW...WHILE THE 00Z/11 GFS KEEPS THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NARROW BAND OF SCT -SHRA/-TSRA PER CURRENT KMQT
RADAR IMAGERY WILL LIKELY AFFECT KSAW UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
OTHERWISE...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL UPPER MI
THIS AFTN. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF
ANY AFTN CONVECTION...SHRA/TSRA WERE NOT MENTIONED AT KSAW. WEST
WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AND PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY KCMX AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA LATE
AFTN/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...S WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS WILL SEE WINDS TO AROUND 30KT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...A PUSH OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO 25-30KT WILL
ARRIVE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MID/LATE AFTN. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE WITH WINDS FALLING BLO 15KT TUE
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WED THRU FRI
SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT AS PRES GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK BTWN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SETTING UP WELL TO THE W AND
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH ANY DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER AIRFLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
CONUS. WL KEEP SOME POPS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RETROGRESS
BACK WEST OVER THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER AIR
FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ECMWF MODEL KEEPS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRING MUCH OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A FEW LINGERING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WRN WI WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED OUT BY DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING THIS TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS WORKING INTO
WRN MN RIGHT NOW AND WILL WORK ACROSS MN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
EAU BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AND SWITCH TO THE W BEHIND WHILE ALSO PICKING UP IN
STRENGTH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NW MN...BUT A FEW GUSTS AOA
30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY AXN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
SHOWERS...THE RAP SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR GENERATING A LINE OF
SHRA AS A RESULT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THESE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...AND WHAT WAS NEAR MSP WITH
THE 04Z RUN IS NOW NOT GETTING GENERATED UNTIL EAST OF EAU...WHICH
IS WERE HIGHEST RISK OF FOR A BRIEF SHRA WILL EXIST.
OTHERWISE...BKN CU FIELD AROUND 5K FT IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
DOWN TO THE TWIN CITIES...WITH A BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT AXN
BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.
KMSP...FAVORED TAF WIND DIRECTIONS TOWARD THAT OF THE HRRR...WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT
WINDS TO BE CONSISTENTLY NORTH OF 240 UNTIL AFTER 15Z...SO THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISSUES WITH HAVING THE AIRPORT ON THE 30S HERE IN
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THAT...DO EXPECT BKN CIGS...BUT
CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO BE LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT
ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL. ALSO...BASED ON WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALL
NIGHT...LOOKS GOOD TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
KTS...EXCEPT THIS TIME WITH A WEST WIND. WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
.TUE...VFR/SKC. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
.WED...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15
KTS.
.THU...CHC SHRA/TSRA. VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA. WINDS
S AROUND 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JVM/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight-Wednesday)
Overnight, the focus was on two lines of convection: the leading
line being the advancing gust front and the second line being
focused along the cold front. The showers and thunderstorms along
the gust front continued to weaken through the overnight hours, with
the bit of remnant activity tracking southeast of the Missouri River
by 09Z. The better area of convective activity was focused along the
cold front that was stretching roughly along a line from North
Kansas City to Cameron and Bethany around 09Z. The activity was
remaining well below severe limits with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, weak
shear, and poor lapse rates present. This line of thunderstorms had
been fairly slow-moving, but has become a bit more progressive toward
the southeast with the help of 20-25kt 850mb winds. This slow
tracking was resulting in higher rainfall rates across extreme
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, with some locations likely
accumulating more than one inch of rain within an hour. HRRR shows
the line of thunderstorms stretching along a Kansas City to
Chillicothe line by around 10Z, progressing just south of the
Missouri River by around 13Z. Short range models are in fairly good
agreement that this thunderstorm activity will shift southeast of the
forecast area late this morning, but cannot rule out a few lingering
showers and thunderstorms across central Missouri early this
afternoon.
Winds will shift to the northwest behind the advancing cold front.
However, cold air advection behind the cold front will be limited
today so should see afternoon temperatures still warmer than normal
-- into the middle 80s. High pressure will build in across the
Northern and Central Plains later this afternoon and track toward
the Great Lakes region by the middle of the week, keeping conditions
dry. Temperatures look to be near to slightly above seasonal normals
through Wednesday as winds shift from northeast to southeast with
the eastward-moving surface high.
As the upper level trough over the Northern Plains progresses toward
the northern Great Lakes, a more zonal flow will set up across the
western and central CONUS through mid-week. Models have shown the
potential for a few disturbances to develop within the zonal flow
primarily west of the forecast area across Kansas. Confidence is low
in whether or not any of these impulses will spread enough eastward
to clip eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri Wednesday and
Wednesday night, so have nothing more than slight chance pops in for
that area.
ACH
Medium Range (Thursday through Sunday)...
Prefer a wait and see approach as it relates to rain chances during
the medium range period. The 00z ECMWF and GFS build mid level
heights, with the ECMWF developing a closed high, across the mid MO
River Valley while a western U.S. trough builds. While it`s
certainly possible a weak vorticity lobe or two will meander across
the Central Plains Thursday or Friday within a chaotic and weak
westerly flow coming out of the Rockies, confidence is low on just
how much convection, if any can make it into the CWA. Agree with the
previous discussion in favoring the drier ECMWF over the relatively
wet GFS. As such can only justify slight chance pops until the end
late Sunday when falling heights across the Plains in response to
the approaching upper trough offers some hope that increasing
dynamics will generate some scattered convection.
A gradual warm up on temperatures and dewpoints continues to look in
order with readings in the upper 80s/90 by the weekend.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, the showers and thunderstorms that have developed
along the cold front will continue to track southeastward through
central and into southern Missouri this morning. Winds will shift to
the northwest behind this passing front with dry conditions expected
for the remainder of the period as high pressure begins to settle
into the Northern and Central Plains. Some scattered mid-level
clouds are possible through the day before clearing out by later
this afternoon.
ACH
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
838 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.UPDATE...
HRRR AND RAP INDICATE LOWER 80S ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THE
HRRR AND RAP WERE DEAD ON SUNDAY ACROSS THIS AREA SO THE FCST HAS
BEEN UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. REST OF FCST OKAY FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
AVIATION...
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SMOKE FROM AT LEAST FOUR FIRES IN COLORADO WILL BE
VISIBLE THROUGH TODAY AND BEYOND. BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...
THE BASE OF THE SMOKE LAYER COULD BE AS LOW AS 7000 FEET AGL.
HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SMOKE WILL PRODUCE A CEILING.
NORTHWEST WIND 300-330 IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-18G21-27KT
BY 15Z. WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE THUS UNTIL AFTER 01Z WHEN IT BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TODAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING THE DAY BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS VERY DRY...WITH A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AIDING THE DRYNESS. DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S TODAY...WILL CREATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE PERIOD OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
SOME GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...BUT REALLY DOESN/T GET INTO FULL SWING UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN H85 DEW POINTS RISE TO NEAR 14C ON SOUTHERLY LLJ.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DECENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE...AND SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NEB
PANHANDLE/EASTERN WY AND CO. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF
BETTER MOISTURE AT FIRST...SO WILL KEEP CHANCES SLIGHT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AS STORMS MOVE
EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE
TO SOUTHERLY 45 KT LLJ. MID LEVEL WAVE AND CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA BY
THURSDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS THE LOW INVOF SOUTHWEST CANADA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ANY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STAYS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE NIL
HOWEVER...AS THE AREA APPEARS TO BE IN A RATHER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LEEWARD TROUGHING DEVELOPS DAILY...AND THIS COULD SERVE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...WITH A DECENT
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF DURING THE PERIOD. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
POTENTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR...WHICH WOULD TEND TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WAS THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK...AND WON/T BE OVER
AMBITIOUS WITH RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
559 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAIN CHANCES. EARLY
THIS MORNING... SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS SPREADING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH... IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSTREAM OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS... A ROBUST LINEAR MCS WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NW MISSOURI. 850/500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS
FEATURE MAY BEGIN A MORE SOUTHERLY PROPAGATION. KSGF VAD WIND
PROFILER SHOWED 25KTS OF INFLOW...THOUGH THIS INFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
AFTER A WEAKENING OF THE MO STORM COMPLEX... NAM MODEL REDEVELOPS
STORMS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD MIDDAY. THIS APPEARS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING... FALLING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE
TROF.
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN GOOD SUPPLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON... WITH PARTIAL SUN AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS.
DESPITE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...THE HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ATTAINABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS.
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
CORE WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH... A
PATTERN WHICH WILL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC OVERNIGHT. THIS
SUGGESTS ELEVATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
THROUGH MESOSCALE PROPAGATION PROCESSES WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON
WHERE STORMS OCCUR.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING DRIER
MIDCONTINENTAL AIR TO AREAS NORTH OF I40 BY AFTERNOON. 06Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY HANG UP OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRIER AIR OVER ALL THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY... DEWPOINTS RECOVER TO THE
60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL HAS
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY UP ACROSS MISSOURI THUS
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH NEW TAF SET. EXPECT POSSIBLY
TWO ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. FIRST...MODEL INDICATING A TSRA
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER NW ARKANSAS/SW MISSOURI AROUND 17-18Z. MCS
WILL PUSH EAST INTO KJBR AFTER 20Z AND POSSIBLY INTO KMEM AFTER
21Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO NEW TAF AS A RESULT. NAM ALSO
SHOWS THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE
WANES AS HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH COMPLEX WILL PUSH. A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR ALONG FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. FOR
NOW JUST LEFT VCTS WORDING AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS EARLIER TSRA
COMPLEX (IF IT DOES DEVELOP) COULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE KILLING
ANY ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT. IF HAD TO PICK
BEST TIMING AT KMEM FOR SECOND ROUND ACTIVITY TO OCCUR WOULD PICK
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6Z- 10Z. OTHERWISE...IFR CIGS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 15-19Z DEPENDING ON LOCATION. SW WINDS
BETWEEN 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TODAY...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 90 74 87 65 / 40 50 40 10
MKL 87 69 85 59 / 40 50 40 0
JBR 88 67 86 61 / 40 50 10 0
TUP 88 71 86 65 / 40 60 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
WITH TROUGHING IN-BETWEEN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN MN SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
WHICH IS EVIDENT BY A DEEP DRY SLOT ON WATER VAPOR AND CLEAR SKIES
ON IR IMAGERY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IN THE DRY SLOT WAS VERY DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.51 INCHES. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA
OF CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN WI SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND TO THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE...DUE TO
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN IN 925 AND 850MB PROFILER DATA.
CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER MN LAST EVENING HAS WEAKENED...DUE TO THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTING
SOUTH...DECREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AS WELL AS
RAP LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS INDICATING WEAKENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS AN MCV RIDING
NORTHEAST...ENTERING THE LA CROSSE AREA AS OF 08Z. ON ITS SOUTHEAST
SIDE...THE COMBINATION OF DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS
AND STORMS LINED ORTHOGONAL TO THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR HAS HELPED
PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS PRESENT JUST BEHIND THE CONVECTION...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO TO LA CROSSE WI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PRESENT IN NORTHWEST MN. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATION SHOWED LOW CLOUDS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT...BEING PROPELLED BY THE CURRENT POTENT SHORTWAVE IN MN AND
A SECOND ONE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO MANITOBA...NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME OF THE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY TONIGHT. IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE TROUGH TO BRING A COOL DOWN
FROM WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN LATELY. FIRST ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS 11.00Z NAM SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE COMPLETELY
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AS
INSTABILITY TRIES TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE IT
CONVECTS...LIKELY BETWEEN 18-21Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS COMES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND IT. NO PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED...BUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS AS SEEN BACK IN THE DAKOTAS
SHOULD FILTER IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME CELLULAR RESULTING
FROM THE STRONG JUNE SUN...THUS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING IN
THE EVENING. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-16C AT 18Z PLUS PLENTY OF SUN AND DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
ONCE THE SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN. BETTER TEMPERATURE FALL EXPECTED
TONIGHT AIDED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. BY 12Z TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
DROP AT LEAST DOWN TO 4-7C...AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...RESULTING IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TURN
ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGHING LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...A SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED TO REACH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE COULD GET
INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 INCH OR
LESS SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR WARMING...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY STRUGGLE
GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO STILL BE AT 4-7C AT 18Z. IN
FACT...TAYLOR COUNTY MAY ONLY BE AROUND 2C. THESE ARE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A RESULT...ONLY FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S...20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO TANK FROM MIXING OF THE DRY AIR. SHOULD BE BREEZY TOO IN
THE MORNING ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING TO CALM WINDS. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
WISCONSIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS IN
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE RETURN FLOW AND CLOUDS COME IN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO AMPLIFY
AGAIN AS TROUGHING DROPS DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS AMPLIFICATION SHOULD HELP TAKE THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS COMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
IT WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY 00Z THURSDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE IT
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS AN ISSUE. INCREASING
305-310 K ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD SPREAD MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMITING HEATING SOMEWHAT...DESPITE WARMER 850MB TEMPS IN THE
8-12C RANGE. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY COULD BE IF FULL SUN WAS OBSERVED. THE
CLOUDS DO LOOK TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS
INTO ONTARIO. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS GIVEN NO STRONG
SIGNAL TO GO COLDER OR WARMER.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
11.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND IN FACT ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS IS THAT TROUGHING
WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
TROUGH DIGGING MORE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
REALLY STRENGTHENS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE TROUGH WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THUS...OVERALL MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS DRY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE MOSTLY STEM FROM BEING
ON THE NOSE OF SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHORTWAVES COMING CLOSE
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE CHANCES MAY BE ABLE TO
BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER. ONE OTHER
PERIOD TO WATCH IS THURSDAY WITH THE 11.00Z ECMWF BEING REALLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER MN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO A SURGE OF WARM...MOIST AIR OCCURRING WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGING. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL DOES NOT BRING THE PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA AND OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING DRIER...HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY.
WHAT COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE AREA NOW STRONGLY FORECAST TO BE UNDER
RIDGING...AND IN BROAD BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH ANOTHER LONG STRETCH OF 80S AND PERHAPS 90S. NEW ECMWF REALLY
CAME IN WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HOVERING
AROUND 20C OR SO...RESULTING IN HIGHS OF 90-95. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AND THESE MAY STILL BE TOO
COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
645 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
CONCERNS DEAL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BRINGING LINE OF SHRA/TS WITH IT. LOOSE
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AT
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS AND RESIDUAL
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS
ALLOWING POCKETS OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR...STRATUS WITH BASES
AOB 600 FEET SCATTERED IN NATURE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
13-14Z AS WINDS START TO VEER TO THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TAKES PLACE. LOOK FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTANT WEST WINDS TO INCREASE BY 16Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE PREVALENT BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES 4-5KFT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...WITH
WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA
AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS WELL. HAVE LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR
TODAY AS IS...OR RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECSAT AREA.
****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
AS OF 935 AM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND N AND
W...ACROSS NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
HELDERBERGS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
OBS...12Z UA SOUNDINGS...AND LATEST RAP/HRRR. FIRST WAS TO EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHC POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POCKETS OF FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO A WEAK
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING A SLIGHTLY COOLER MODIFIED MARINE AIR MASS
TO THE E AND S...FROM A WARMER...MORE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE
N AND W.
ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS COVERAGE AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODIFIED MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO WORK N AND
W...MAX TEMPS MAY FAIL TO REACH 80 ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
GREENS...LITCHFIELD CO AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT MAXES TO REACH 80-85 ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND MID 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N AND W THE LOWER CLOUDS REACH...AS
THIS MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS/TOWARD
LOWER VALUES/WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD MORE CLOUDS FORM.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPSTREAM NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO MIGRATE FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALONG WITH ITS
APPROACH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AN
ENTRAINMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE ATLANTIC YET RATHER DRY
BETWEEN 850-500MB TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WEST OF THE REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO >40KTS TO ASSIST WITH RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE CWFA. NCEP MODEL SUITE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL VALUES PER THE SHOWALTERS STILL
SUPPORT EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB IN
EXCESS OF 1.75" WITH UPSTREAM VALUES CLOSE TO 2.00". THESE VALUES
ARE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS...NW CT INTO THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...RATHER HIGH POPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER DUE TO THE
MARINE INFLUENCE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...THOSE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER LONGER UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO
BE A DRIER DAY. WHILE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY...LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
BIT MORE MOIST DUE TO THE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY EVENT AND LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORIES. SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
OUT ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PTSUNNY DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WHICH
DOWNPLAYS THE COOLER VALUES WITHIN THE GFS MOS AND THE MUCH WARMER
VALUES SEEN IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING THE MID WEEK WET WEATHER WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WON/T MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP OUT TO SEA...IT LOOKS TO GENERALLY
WASH OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. ALSO...WHILE
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT...THE LATEST 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW A WEAK LOW REMAINING
OFF THE COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE WE STILL MAY HAVE A LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION /ESP FOR EASTERN AREAS/ FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH. SKIES LOOK TO RANGE FROM
PARTLY CLOUDY IN WESTERN AREAS...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...DUE TO THE WEAK NE SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR WED NIGHT...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IT LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR AREA
TO BE OF ANY CONCERN FOR US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION FROM FIRING UP...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY ONWARD. VALLEY MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WARMER AND
WARMER EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY...LOW 80S FOR
SATURDAY...AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY. SKIES GENERALLY LOOK
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. AT THIS POINT...DEWPOINTS DON/T LOOK
TOO MUGGY JUST YET...WITH TDS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS A
MOIST S/SE FLOW CONTINUES...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER 06Z/TUE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS
AT KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD EVEN FURTHER N...BUT AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT KALB/KGFL.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 14Z-15Z/TUE...WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NYS
DURING THE MORNING...AND MAY IMPACT TAF SITES WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER AFTER 16Z/TUE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 8-12 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING EFFECTS UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO 8-12 KT TUE MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NT...VFR/MVFR. CHC IFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA LIKELY.
WED...VFR/MVFR. SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY.
THU/SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH TODAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. MINIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT
REBOUND TO GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT.
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY TO FURTHER REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A ROBUST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THAT SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
THE RAINFALL TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS....BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. PWAT ANOMALIES OF 2
TO 3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...A >40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES...AND THUS EXPECTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS FOR THE EVENT AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. LATEST RUN OF THE
MMEFS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH NO POINTS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT...STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND N AND
W...ACROSS NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
HELDERBERGS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
OBS...12Z UA SOUNDINGS...AND LATEST RAP/HRRR. FIRST WAS TO EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHC POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POCKETS OF FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO A WEAK
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING A SLIGHTLY COOLER MODIFIED MARINE AIR MASS
TO THE E AND S...FROM A WARMER...MORE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE
N AND W.
ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS COVERAGE AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODIFIED MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO WORK N AND
W...MAX TEMPS MAY FAIL TO REACH 80 ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN
GREENS...LITCHFIELD CO AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT MAXES TO REACH 80-85 ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND MID 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N AND W THE LOWER CLOUDS REACH...AS
THIS MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS/TOWARD
LOWER VALUES/WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD MORE CLOUDS FORM.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPSTREAM NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO MIGRATE FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALONG WITH ITS
APPROACH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AN
ENTRAINMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE ATLANTIC YET RATHER DRY
BETWEEN 850-500MB TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WEST OF THE REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO >40KTS TO ASSIST WITH RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE CWFA. NCEP MODEL SUITE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL VALUES PER THE SHOWALTERS STILL
SUPPORT EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB IN
EXCESS OF 1.75" WITH UPSTREAM VALUES CLOSE TO 2.00". THESE VALUES
ARE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS...NW CT INTO THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...RATHER HIGH POPS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER DUE TO THE
MARINE INFLUENCE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...THOSE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER LONGER UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO
BE A DRIER DAY. WHILE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY...LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
BIT MORE MOIST DUE TO THE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY EVENT AND LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORIES. SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
OUT ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PTSUNNY DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WHICH
DOWNPLAYS THE COOLER VALUES WITHIN THE GFS MOS AND THE MUCH WARMER
VALUES SEEN IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING THE MID WEEK WET WEATHER WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WON/T MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP OUT TO SEA...IT LOOKS TO GENERALLY
WASH OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. ALSO...WHILE
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT...THE LATEST 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW A WEAK LOW REMAINING
OFF THE COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE WE STILL MAY HAVE A LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION /ESP FOR EASTERN AREAS/ FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH. SKIES LOOK TO RANGE FROM
PARTLY CLOUDY IN WESTERN AREAS...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...DUE TO THE WEAK NE SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR WED NIGHT...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW A CLOSED OFF 500 HPA LOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IT LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR AREA
TO BE OF ANY CONCERN FOR US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION FROM FIRING UP...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY ONWARD. VALLEY MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WARMER AND
WARMER EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY...LOW 80S FOR
SATURDAY...AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY. SKIES GENERALLY LOOK
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. AT THIS POINT...DEWPOINTS DON/T LOOK
TOO MUGGY JUST YET...WITH TDS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS A
MOIST S/SE FLOW CONTINUES...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER 06Z/TUE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS
AT KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD EVEN FURTHER N...BUT AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT KALB/KGFL.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 14Z-15Z/TUE...WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NYS
DURING THE MORNING...AND MAY IMPACT TAF SITES WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER AFTER 16Z/TUE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 8-12 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING EFFECTS UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO 8-12 KT TUE MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NT...VFR/MVFR. CHC IFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA LIKELY.
WED...VFR/MVFR. SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY.
THU/SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH TODAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF ALBANY. MINIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT
REBOUND TO GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT.
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY TO FURTHER REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A ROBUST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THAT SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
THE RAINFALL TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS....BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. PWAT ANOMALIES OF 2
TO 3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...A >40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES...AND THUS EXPECTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS FOR THE EVENT AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. LATEST RUN OF THE
MMEFS GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH NO POINTS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. WILL BE MONITORING FOR A FEW
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE THAT MAY
WILL LIKELY BE ALL THAT IS ON THE SCOPE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER COOK COUNTY
AND SOUTH ALONG THE IL/IN STATE LINE...WHICH IS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF A WEAK CONVERGENT AXIS AND APPARENT SHORT WAVE SEEN ON
SATELLITE. MID 80S TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS CORRIDOR HAS BUILT SURFACE BASED CAPE TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY OVER 2000 J/KG. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LAST LONGER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ACTIVITY NEAR NOON BEING CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
CENTER AND HAVING MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. UPPER LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE AROUND A MEAGER 20 KT PER PROFILER ANALYSIS. THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE STORM CORES IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT PULSY WITH
INSTABILITY IN THE DRIVERS SEAT...AND WITH LIMITED ATTENDANT SHEAR
IT LEAVES ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM UPPER TROUGH CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE MN/WESTERN
QUEBEC BORDER WITH PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS...THE UPPER JET AXIS...AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER ASCENT MOVING EAST FROM THERE. THIS FORCING HAS
AIDED SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN WI. THE COOL FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THERE WHERE IT WILL
MOVE INTO NW IL BY 4 PM AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVE. THE WIND SHIFT IS GRADUAL FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND IT IS ACTUALLY AHEAD OF THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SO OVERALL CONVERGENCE IS LIMITED
AND FEEL THAT WILL BE THE CASE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT WERE TO
TRIGGER ALONG IT...WHICH IS NOW APPEARING DOUBTFUL IN OUR AREA.
THE HRRR AND OTHER EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS AGREE IN THIS
LIMITED COVERAGE.
THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY MIXED AS IT DOES
SUCH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE RISE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN BE THE
STORY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE REALLY ONLY WEATHER OF INTEREST FROM DAY TO DAY WILL
BE HOW LOW DEW POINTS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON MIXING...AND
TO WHAT DEGREE OF COOLING WILL THERE BE FROM THE LAKE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT LAKE BREEZE INTO IL...BUT LIKELY INTO IN.
THIS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS
TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN SD. THIS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER SHOULD BE REALIZED DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PROJECTED MIXING TO 850 MB. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN LOW...UNDER 25 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST.
INFLUENCE FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CHICAGO
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILD MORE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC HAS SHOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SW FLOW THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AND MAY
DAMPEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR POPS DURING PART OF THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...HAVE
COLLABORATED GOING DRIER THAN POPS AND DEW POINTS FROM GUIDANCE
BLENDS IN THE EXTENDED PER PERSISTENCE AND AN OVERALL STAGNANT
PATTERN.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* DECREASING TSRA/SHRA THREAT.
* GUSTY WSW WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH COLD FROPA AROUND 02-03Z.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WHICH HAD FORMED SOUTHEAST OF ORD/MDW THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF TERMINAL AREA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA/SHRA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THUS WHILE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
CANT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS...PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS VERY LOW AND
WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION IN TAFS. AS INDICATED...WINDS SHIFTING
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BETWEEN PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN WILL SHIFT WEST-
NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FRONT IN THE 02-03Z TIME
FRAME STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL
MIXING MAY SUPPORT GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS POST FROPA.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 18Z...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS PROVIDING A CANOPY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WHERE AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS MID AFTERNOON.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST/EAST OF ORD/MDW WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR GYY TO BE IMPACTED OR AT LEAST TO SEE ACTIVITY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. MOVED UP VCTS AT GYY TO START OF TAF
GIVEN ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN THE AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL AT 18Z. LATE THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN
THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH
LOW THREAT OF BEING ON STATION. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEAST IN THE
CHICAGO AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
BMD/RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO ADDITIONAL TSRA/SHRA PRIOR TO COLD
FROPA THIS EVENING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
231 PM CDT
A LARGE LOW HAS MOVED INTO HUDSON BAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED...RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
ITS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LOWS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST AT 15 TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY
FOR A ON TUESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO EASTERLY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A LARGE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US THROUGH THE
REMAINING PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT WINDS VARYING BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTH.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
320 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. WILL BE MONITORING FOR A FEW
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE THAT MAY
WILL LIKELY BE ALL THAT IS ON THE SCOPE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER COOK COUNTY
AND SOUTH ALONG THE IL/IN STATE LINE...WHICH IS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF A WEAK CONVERGENT AXIS AND APPARENT SHORT WAVE SEEN ON
SATELLITE. MID 80S TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS CORRIDOR HAS BUILT SURFACE BASED CAPE TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY OVER 2000 J/KG. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LAST LONGER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ACTIVITY NEAR NOON BEING CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
CENTER AND HAVING MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. UPPER LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE AROUND A MEAGER 20 KT PER PROFILER ANALYSIS. THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE STORM CORES IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT PULSY WITH
INSTABILITY IN THE DRIVERS SEAT...AND WITH LIMITED ATTENDANT SHEAR
IT LEAVES ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM UPPER TROUGH CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE MN/WESTERN
QUEBEC BORDER WITH PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS...THE UPPER JET AXIS...AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER ASCENT MOVING EAST FROM THERE. THIS FORCING HAS
AIDED SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN WI. THE COOL FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THERE WHERE IT WILL
MOVE INTO NW IL BY 4 PM AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVE. THE WIND SHIFT IS GRADUAL FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND IT IS ACTUALLY AHEAD OF THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SO OVERALL CONVERGENCE IS LIMITED
AND FEEL THAT WILL BE THE CASE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT WERE TO
TRIGGER ALONG IT...WHICH IS NOW APPEARING DOUBTFUL IN OUR AREA.
THE HRRR AND OTHER EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS AGREE IN THIS
LIMITED COVERAGE.
THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY MIXED AS IT DOES
SUCH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE RISE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN BE THE
STORY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE REALLY ONLY WEATHER OF INTEREST FROM DAY TO DAY WILL
BE HOW LOW DEW POINTS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON MIXING...AND
TO WHAT DEGREE OF COOLING WILL THERE BE FROM THE LAKE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT LAKE BREEZE INTO IL...BUT LIKELY INTO IN.
THIS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS
TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN SD. THIS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER SHOULD BE REALIZED DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PROJECTED MIXING TO 850 MB. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN LOW...UNDER 25 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST.
INFLUENCE FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CHICAGO
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILD MORE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC HAS SHOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SW FLOW THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AND MAY
DAMPEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR POPS DURING PART OF THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...HAVE
COLLABORATED GOING DRIER THAN POPS AND DEW POINTS FROM GUIDANCE
BLENDS IN THE EXTENDED PER PERSISTENCE AND AN OVERALL STAGNANT
PATTERN.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW THIS AFTERNOON TO NW THIS
EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
* COUPLE WINDOWS OF POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
STILL DO NOT THINK TSRA WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT ORD/MDW THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PROBABILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING
IS LOW. VCTS NEAR GYY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GYY. WILL MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER CHANGE
IN 20Z AMD WAS TO MOVE UP TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY 1
HOUR EARLIER AT TAF SITES. THIS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED UP A BIT
MORE. POTENTIAL FOR NW WIND GUSTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXISTS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
RC
...FROM 18Z...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS PROVIDING A CANOPY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WHERE AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS MID AFTERNOON.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST/EAST OF ORD/MDW WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR GYY TO BE IMPACTED OR AT LEAST TO SEE ACTIVITY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. MOVED UP VCTS AT GYY TO START OF TAF
GIVEN ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN THE AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL AT 18Z. LATE THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN
THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH
LOW THREAT OF BEING ON STATION. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEAST IN THE
CHICAGO AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
BMD/RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND GUST MAGNITUDE...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA SE OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
CONFIDENCE IT WILL IMPACT ORD/MDW.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
231 PM CDT
A LARGE LOW HAS MOVED INTO HUDSON BAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED...RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
ITS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LOWS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST AT 15 TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY
FOR A ON TUESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO EASTERLY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A LARGE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US THROUGH THE
REMAINING PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT WINDS VARYING BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTH.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
258 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN QUESTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY
CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. 2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...HOWEVER AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS STILL QUITE STABLE DUE TO
MORNING CONVECTION THAT DECAYED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS FROM SPC IS INDICATING SOME DESTABILIZATION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES BACK UP TO AROUND
1500 TO 2000J/KG. 19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
NARROW RIBBON OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...HOWEVER
NO SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FIRED YET. 12Z MODELS ARE LARGELY
USELESS...AS NONE OF THEM ADEQUATELY PREDICTED THE STORMS THAT
ROLLED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EVEN SOME OF
THE HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
CONVECTION...SO THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE SUSPECT. THE 17Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
REALITY...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR E/SE KILX
CWA EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 00Z...BUT THIS RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. SINCE THE FRONT IS
STILL OFF TO THE WEST...THINK THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...SO
WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLEST MORNING WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE EXTENDED...AS
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE FLOW...WITH THE 12Z 11 JUN GFS
FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE AND RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS RIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE WEAKER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES
AND THE FACT THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE IN A MODERATE
DROUGHT...WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-57 ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS AT
CMI JUST GOT A NW WIND GUST OF 35 KTS WITH HEAVY RAINS TO REDUCE
VSBY TO 1/2-1 MILE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS LINE MOVES
STEADILY EASTWARD. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AS WELL AT CMI. NO
REPORTS OF HAIL YET AND THINK BETTER HAIL THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
CMI. HAVE TS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY AT DEC NEXT HOUR WHILE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE EAST OF I-55/REST OF CENTRAL IL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD STILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLD FRONT IN SE IA INTO CENTRAL MO TRACKS SE INTO SE IL EARLY
THIS EVENING. SKIES TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE AS 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SETTLES INTO THE MIDWEST BY 18Z/TUE. SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS TO TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS THEN BE NW 10-15 KTS TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS BY MIDDAY TUE.
HUETTL
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1214 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES IN FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...WHICH LIES FROM ROUGHLY FROM KDSM TO KTOP
TO KWLD AT 08Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WERE REPORTED AT KMHK AT 08Z
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOWING NEAR THE KTWX RADAR. MUCH DRIER AIR
NOT FAR BEHIND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND LOWER 30S IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. WEAK MID LEVEL
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON WESTERN KANSAS RADARS BUT LITTLE NEARING THE
SURFACE IN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. 0Z 850MB TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE
TO 20C THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING STATES...THOUGH TEMPS BELOW 10C
WERE SAMPLED IN MONTANA.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HRRR AND RUC WITH CONVECTION SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS MOVES IN. WESTERN MID LEVEL RETURNS SHOULD ENCOUNTER THIS
DRIER AIR AND STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES ITS TIME GETTING HERE HOWEVER...WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED LEVELS
COMING LATE IN THE DAY. WITH SOME EARLY DAY HIGH CLOUD AS
WELL...THIS MAY KEEP NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER
80S ALONG I-70 WHERE EARLY DAY DEBRIS IS MORE REMOVED AND BETTER
CALL WILL HOLD OFF LONGER.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PERIODS LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA AND 700-850MB RIDGING OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUD MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. COMBINED FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME CONVECTION...THOUGH COVERAGE IS MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS POINT. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP STRONG INSTABILITY IN CHECK.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RULE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SITUATION. FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM APPEAR LACKING...BUT ALSO LACKING IS STRONG CAPPING. SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR MID JUNE...
WILL BE KEPT FOR THE BULK OF THESE PERIODS WITH TEMPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL.
65
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS TODAY...BUT WILL TAPER
OFF TO LIGHT NNE OR NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
647 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER RLX THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
SUGGEST MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
INCLUDE MORE CATEGORICAL AREAS TONIGHT. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND CIN BEGINNING TO
FORM OVER THE REGION.
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE THE AREA AS A `SEE TEXT` MENTION IN
THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. APPEARS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...BUT ONLY LOW VALUES OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS AS IF THERE WILL ONLY BE A
MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINS EAST OF I-79 TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY
THE RIDGES SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND THE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO QUEBEC THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WITH LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 60S AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE EAST FOR THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RISE BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD, AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
HENCE EXPECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO BE DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BLEND
OF GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE NEAR NORMAL,
THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO VALUES 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER COULD BE OFFSHORE,
BECOMING WHAT IS TERMED A BERMUDA HIGH, WHICH WOULD ALLOW WEAK
LOWLEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND
WRF-NMM MODEL OUTPUT, SHOW A PREFRONTAL SURGE OF MVFR SHOWERS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 78, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT TONIGHT, AND MAY LOWER TO IFR LATE
TONIGHT, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT THAT EVAPORATING RAINFALL SATURATES
A NOCTURNALLY-COOLING SURFACE LAYER. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, CONDITIONS CAN LIFT TO VFR
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE A BRIEF TEMPORARY DROP
TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF FOG
DEVELOPS, POST FRONTAL DRYING AND ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE VFR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
330 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE MADE PROGRESS ALL THE WAY TO
INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH EARLIER RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
VIRGA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN QUITE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION EITHER. HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF POPS
IN THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
TIME. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
AM CONCERNED THAT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS NEVER SHOW ANYTHING
RESEMBLING STRATIFORM COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ACCORDING TO SREF
CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES. COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS
CONTINUED TO INCLUDE THE AREA AS A `SEE TEXT` MENTION IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. APPEARS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT...BUT ONLY LOW VALUES OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS AS IF THERE WILL ONLY BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINS EAST OF I-79 TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY
THE RIDGES SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND THE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO QUEBEC THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WITH LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 60S AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE EAST FOR THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RISE BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD, AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
HENCE EXPECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO BE DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BLEND
OF GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE NEAR NORMAL,
THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO VALUES 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER COULD BE OFFSHORE,
BECOMING WHAT IS TERMED A BERMUDA HIGH, WHICH WOULD ALLOW WEAK
LOWLEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND
WRF-NMM MODEL OUTPUT, SHOW A PREFRONTAL SURGE OF MVFR SHOWERS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 78, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT TONIGHT, AND MAY LOWER TO IFR LATE
TONIGHT, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT THAT EVAPORATING RAINFALL SATURATES
A NOCTURNALLY-COOLING SURFACE LAYER. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, CONDITIONS CAN LIFT TO VFR
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE A BRIEF TEMPORARY DROP
TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF FOG
DEVELOPS, POST FRONTAL DRYING AND ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE VFR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
209 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 115PM UPDATE...HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIPITATION BY A FEW MORE
HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TAKING ITS TIME
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOT OF VIRGA.
THE VIRGA SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. ALSO TWEAKED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BUMPING UP
NORTHERN COUNTIES UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WHERE RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ARRIVED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE WHOLE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BY MIDDAY, AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT AND A DEEPER TOUGH MOVING EAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY AN INCH
EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL WEST
OF REGION.
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING REGION LOWERED
MAX TEMPS TOWARD MAV MOS. QUITE MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY UNTIL THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW LEVEL DRYING TOWARD EVENING. ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN DOUBT AS WELL
AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM AND
ECMWF FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING AS DRY
AIR WORKS ACROSS REGION.
MODELS THEN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO
MOVE EAST WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD, AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
HENCE EXPECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO BE DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BLEND
OF GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE NEAR NORMAL,
THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO VALUES 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER COULD BE OFFSHORE,
BECOMING A WHAT IS TERMED A BERMUDA HIGH, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
WEAK LOWLEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SO PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND
WRF-NMM MODEL OUTPUT, SHOW A PREFRONTAL SURGE OF MVFR SHOWERS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 78, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT TONIGHT, AND MAY LOWER TO IFR LATE
TONIGHT, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT THAT EVAPORATING RAINFALL SATURATES
A NOCTURNALLY-COOLING SURFACE LAYER. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, CONDITIONS CAN LIFT TO VFR
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE A BRIEF TEMPORARY DROP
TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF FOG
DEVELOPS, POST FRONTAL DRYING AND ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE VFR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF AND
ASSOC STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING FM ND INTO NW MN. THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO SLOWLY PUSH A SFC COLD
FRONT ACROSS WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SFC
PLOT/ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS ALONG A CRYSTAL FALLS-MICHIGAMME
LINE. ALTHOUGH 12Z MODEL SNDGS INDICATE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE WITH T/TD OF 82/63...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LITTLE DVLPMT
TO CU FIELD UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
OVER NRN WI. SUSPECT THAT DRY ALOFT MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
AS NOTED ON VERY DRY 12Z KMPX SNDGS MAY BE INHIBITING CU DVLPMT OVER
THE FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF CU DVLPMT ON VIS SATELLITE MAY END UP
EVENTUALLY HAVING TO BACK OFF ON POPS TO SLIGHT CHC OVER CENTRAL AND
ERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. IF SOME
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR STORM GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KTS OVER THE AREA. RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS OUT
COMPLETELY SINCE FRONT IS STILL APPROACHING BUT CHC OF PCPN IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE DOUBTFUL THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN
CWA. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MIXING/INSTABILITY
WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LOOK FOR LOWS
TO REACH INTO THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUESDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY
ALONG WITH THE 8H THERMAL TROF AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND 0C.
WITH GOOD CAA IN THE WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MIXING
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WHILE DEEPER SOUTH CENTRAL WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC SFC-850 MB FLOW AND RDGG BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD SCOUR OUT LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO...WE WILL MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE CO ROCKIES.
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT 31-36F INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS WINDS GO
NEARLY CALM AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY THROUGH...WITH
MIXED DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S BY 18Z. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT
IN MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND 25-30 PERCENT EAST. EXPECT THE RETURN OF LIGHT/SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE HURON AND STRETCHES THROUGH
QUEBEC...STILL BELOW 15MPH. DID PUSH THE FCST CLOSER TO THESE LOWEST
VALUES.
THE ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND E CO/NM THURSDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. ALTHOUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS /20-35KTS BETWEEN THE SFC AND
850MB/...MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL. MIN RH VALUES
COULD STILL NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR W UPPER MI BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FCST FOR SUNDAY MONDAY REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOT GO
TOO FAR IN DEPTH WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT PERIOD. THE WESTERN SFC
LOW WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NWS ONTARIO AND MN BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL REMAINING TO OUR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM/HOT
WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS S WINDS REMAIN STEADY AND 850MB
TEMPS RISE AGAIN TO 16 TO 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA COULD FORM BTWN 18-00Z IN VCNTY OF
KSAW ALONG INCOMING COLD FRONT BUT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER...SHRA/TSRA
WERE NOT MENTIONED AT KSAW. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AND PICK
UP SUBSTANTIALLY AT KIWD AND ESPECIALLY KCMX AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA LATE AFTN/EVENING. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX AND
THEN LATE TUE MORNING AT KSAW WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LS THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF HIGH NEARING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. W-NW GUSTS OF 30 TO POSSIBLY 30KTS WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LS THROUGH SATURDAY...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MN
DIMINISHED AS THEY APPROACHED UPPER MI EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING RIBBON OF MUCAPE WHICH HAS RECENTLY INCREASED
TO 500-1000J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SUPPORTING SCT
SHRA/TSRA WHICH ARE SPREADING/DEVELOPING NE INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
AS OF 09Z.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRA/TSRA SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS GIVEN AVBL INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR
THE W BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR TODAY. TO THE E...DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. UTILIZING MODIFIED NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR T/TD
OF MID 80S/LWR 60S PRIOR TO MODEL GENERATED PCPN (GFS SOUNDING
CONTAMINATED BY PCPN) YIELDS SBCAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR WX. HIGH RES MODELS GIVE CONFLICTING
SIGNALS ABOUT WHETHER CONVECTION WILL REDVELOP AS SEVERAL INDICATE
LITTLE OR NO REGENERATION TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...SEEMS PRUDENT TO MENTION AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 06Z LOCAL HIGH RES WRF AND 4KM NAM ARE
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA AS THEY SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN SPREADING E. APPEARS
THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY CRYSTAL FALLS TO ISHPEMING EASTWARD WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS THIS AFTN. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LOWER TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES
WITH SRLY FLOW/MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE LAKE.
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI
BEHIND FRONT. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST DWPTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S WHICH RESULTS IN RH FALLING TO AROUND 30PCT THIS AFTN.
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH THIS AFTN...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS NOT
OCCURRED RECENTLY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE FROM WRN HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL MN...WITH A SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL NRN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL STRETCH S TO
CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE
MOVING IN AROUND THIS TIME DURING LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT...BUT I THINK THE DRY AIR WILL KEEP THAT FROM
HAPPENING. WILL DEPICT PRECIP WITH CHANCE POPS MOVING OUT OF THE CWA
BY 06Z TUE.
BY 12Z TUE...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE FROM ERN
HUDSON BAY TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WRN MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF
THE CWA...WITH GOOD CAA IN THE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3C E AND -1C W. BY 18Z TUE...THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA...WITH THE SFC HIGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z WILL RANGE
FROM -2C N TO 2C S. BY 00Z WED...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER
FAR ERN UPPER MI...WHILE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND 825MB TUE...RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE 50S N TO 60S S...AND LOW DEW PTS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO FROST POTENTIAL AS COOL TEMPS TUE DROP QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WENT WITH THE LOW SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF FROST IN HWO.
WED THROUGH FRI...THE SFC HIGH MOVES E WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR W IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. THE
RESULTING SLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGS OFF AND ON CONVECTION
FROM LATE WED THROUGH FRI...BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THAT STAYING
W OF THE CWA AND INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP FORECAST FOR
UPPER MI DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DRIER PATTERN HAS VERIFIED
BETTER RECENTLY...AND MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY ANYWAYS. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S...BRINGING STEADILY
INCREASING TEMPS WED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. BY FRI...850MB TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP TO 16C...THEN UP TO 18C ON SAT AND SUN. MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z/10 ECMWF BRINGING A
TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE NW...WHILE THE 00Z/11 GFS KEEPS THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA COULD FORM BTWN 18-00Z IN VCNTY OF
KSAW ALONG INCOMING COLD FRONT BUT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER...SHRA/TSRA
WERE NOT MENTIONED AT KSAW. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AND PICK
UP SUBSTANTIALLY AT KIWD AND ESPECIALLY KCMX AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA LATE AFTN/EVENING. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX AND
THEN LATE TUE MORNING AT KSAW WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...S WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS WILL SEE WINDS TO AROUND 30KT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...A PUSH OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO 25-30KT WILL
ARRIVE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MID/LATE AFTN. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE WITH WINDS FALLING BLO 15KT TUE
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WED THRU FRI
SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT AS PRES GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK BTWN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SETTING UP WELL TO THE W AND
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight-Wednesday)
Overnight, the focus was on two lines of convection: the leading
line being the advancing gust front and the second line being
focused along the cold front. The showers and thunderstorms along
the gust front continued to weaken through the overnight hours, with
the bit of remnant activity tracking southeast of the Missouri River
by 09Z. The better area of convective activity was focused along the
cold front that was stretching roughly along a line from North
Kansas City to Cameron and Bethany around 09Z. The activity was
remaining well below severe limits with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, weak
shear, and poor lapse rates present. This line of thunderstorms had
been fairly slow-moving, but has become a bit more progressive toward
the southeast with the help of 20-25kt 850mb winds. This slow
tracking was resulting in higher rainfall rates across extreme
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, with some locations likely
accumulating more than one inch of rain within an hour. HRRR shows
the line of thunderstorms stretching along a Kansas City to
Chillicothe line by around 10Z, progressing just south of the
Missouri River by around 13Z. Short range models are in fairly good
agreement that this thunderstorm activity will shift southeast of the
forecast area late this morning, but cannot rule out a few lingering
showers and thunderstorms across central Missouri early this
afternoon.
Winds will shift to the northwest behind the advancing cold front.
However, cold air advection behind the cold front will be limited
today so should see afternoon temperatures still warmer than normal
-- into the middle 80s. High pressure will build in across the
Northern and Central Plains later this afternoon and track toward
the Great Lakes region by the middle of the week, keeping conditions
dry. Temperatures look to be near to slightly above seasonal normals
through Wednesday as winds shift from northeast to southeast with
the eastward-moving surface high.
As the upper level trough over the Northern Plains progresses toward
the northern Great Lakes, a more zonal flow will set up across the
western and central CONUS through mid-week. Models have shown the
potential for a few disturbances to develop within the zonal flow
primarily west of the forecast area across Kansas. Confidence is low
in whether or not any of these impulses will spread enough eastward
to clip eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri Wednesday and
Wednesday night, so have nothing more than slight chance pops in for
that area.
ACH
Medium Range (Thursday through Sunday)...
Prefer a wait and see approach as it relates to rain chances during
the medium range period. The 00z ECMWF and GFS build mid level
heights, with the ECMWF developing a closed high, across the mid MO
River Valley while a western U.S. trough builds. While it`s
certainly possible a weak vorticity lobe or two will meander across
the Central Plains Thursday or Friday within a chaotic and weak
westerly flow coming out of the Rockies, confidence is low on just
how much convection, if any can make it into the CWA. Agree with the
previous discussion in favoring the drier ECMWF over the relatively
wet GFS. As such can only justify slight chance pops until the end
late Sunday when falling heights across the Plains in response to
the approaching upper trough offers some hope that increasing
dynamics will generate some scattered convection.
A gradual warm up on temperatures and dewpoints continues to look in
order with readings in the upper 80s/90 by the weekend.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs: Secondary cold front beginning to push through the
terminals early this afternoon will allow drier air to filter
southward. Scattered strato-cu deck behind this front and ahead of
850 trough will persist into the afternoon hours. Skies will clear by
this evening and remain VFR though the overnight period.
Will need to monitor for the potential of fog development near
daybreak at the terminals as winds turn light. Recent rainfall
combined with these light winds may support development, but
advection of drier air from the northwest will also inhibit
development.
Dux
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
257 PM MDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ALBERTA WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...A FEW HOURS EARLIER THEN EXPECTED. COULD BE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WAS INDICATED ON THE
LATEST HRRR RUN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT SO
DROPPED POPS DOWN TO NOTHING AFTER THAT.
TUESDAY...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MY SW ZONES AS THE
WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. MODELS SOUNDING DO SHOW A
SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE REGION SO A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SO WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL HELP GENERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE MID
LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. CAPE VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN WEAK AND
ELEVATED OTHER THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS ARE WEAK AS WELL. THE
THINKING AT THIS TIME IS JUST GENERAL THUNDER POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...MEETING MODERATE INSTABILITY...GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN WITH THIS WAVE
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THESE
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SHORT PERIOD UPPER RIDGE. THIS
RIDGE GETS OVERTAKEN BY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. FROM
THIS POINT ON THE MODELS AGREE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ONLY IN
GENERAL...BUT DIFFER TOTALLY WITH THE EMBEDDED FEATURES. LATE IN
THE SHIFT THE 12Z EC CONTINUES THE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
AGREE THE BEST BET IS TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
OBTAINED. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER MONTANA AND NEARBY AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON HOW THE TROUGH WILL BE CONFIGURED...TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THE TROUGH AND WHEN AND WHERE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL OCCUR.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES OVER THE PERIOD BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO TIME WHEN
RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF A 30 TO
40 POP BROAD-BRUSH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND REDUCE SKY
COVER. IN ADDITION A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WILL REDUCE
WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADING TO THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE
LACK OF LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WESTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS. SCT
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.AVIATION... /FOR THE 11.18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DECREASE AND
SHIFT THE NORTH WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WELL MIXED AGAIN ON TUESDAY
SO WILL SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE MID-
LEVELS SO SHOULD SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUESDAY...HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
UPDATE...
HRRR AND RAP INDICATE LOWER 80S ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THE
HRRR AND RAP WERE DEAD ON SUNDAY ACROSS THIS AREA SO THE FCST HAS
BEEN UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. REST OF FCST OKAY FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TODAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING THE DAY BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS VERY DRY...WITH A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AIDING THE DRYNESS. DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S TODAY...WILL CREATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE PERIOD OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
SOME GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...BUT REALLY DOESN/T GET INTO FULL SWING UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN H85 DEW POINTS RISE TO NEAR 14C ON SOUTHERLY LLJ.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DECENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE...AND SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NEB
PANHANDLE/EASTERN WY AND CO. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF
BETTER MOISTURE AT FIRST...SO WILL KEEP CHANCES SLIGHT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AS STORMS MOVE
EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE
TO SOUTHERLY 45 KT LLJ. MID LEVEL WAVE AND CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA BY
THURSDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS THE LOW INVOF SOUTHWEST CANADA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ANY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STAYS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE NIL
HOWEVER...AS THE AREA APPEARS TO BE IN A RATHER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LEEWARD TROUGHING DEVELOPS DAILY...AND THIS COULD SERVE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...WITH A DECENT
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF DURING THE PERIOD. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
POTENTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR...WHICH WOULD TEND TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WAS THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK...AND WON/T BE OVER
AMBITIOUS WITH RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TAYLOR
UPDATE...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST
TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING
TO REDUCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING
SURPRISINGLY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SETUP IN PLACE DUE
TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF LATE-SUMMERLIKE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
UPPER PIECES OF ENERGY USUALLY ONLY SEEN ON FRINGES OF SUMMER.
MAIN VORT MAX CURRENTLY CLEARLY EVIDENT ON BOTH SAT AND RADAR NR
CLT WITH BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS
LEADING EDGE. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL SWEEP THROUGH WESTERN COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER COME A FEW POINTS OF
FCST UNCERTAINTY. FOR ONE...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MAIN VORT SHOULD
SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER WRN ZONES FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
VORT MOVES NE AND WEAKENS. SECOND...IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THE TRAILING/TRAINING BAND OF SHOWERS PERSISTS AND HOW FAR
EAST THEY PUSH. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT PERFORMING VERY WELL IN THE 1ST
PLACE...BUT SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
REGION ASSOC WITH WEAK JETLET TRAILING THE VORT AS THE MAIN PIECE
WEAKENS NEAR THE CAPE FEAR REGION. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH THE SRF IS
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE ALL
THE WAY EAST TO COASTAL NC COUNTIES DUE TO THE UPPER FEATURE
WEAKENING. GRANTED...THIS IS ALL JUST REALLY TRYING TO FINE-TUNE
POPS...WITH THE LCL SO LOW/500-750M/AREA-WIDE AND THE COLUMN
SATURATED THROUGH SUCH A DEEP LAYER VIRTUALLY EVERY LITTLE RIPPLE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SHOWERS THAT WILL PUT DOWN APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL. FORECAST THUS STILL BRINGS LIKELY POPS TO NC COAST THIS
EVE. A RELATIVE LULL MAY OCCUR LATE EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT AS ALL OF THESE SHORTWAVES WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
WHERE ANOTHER CHAIN OF SHEAR VORTS DEVELOP IN THE FLOW AND LEAD TO
ASCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES AND THE 500 MB TROUGH
JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE PERHAPS AFFECTING THE BEACHES...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT BACK ONSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY BACK
INTO CENTRAL NC/SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...A NEARLY
SATURATED TROPOSPHERE...AND LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
REDUCE OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND LEAVE LOCALIZED RAINFALL-
INDUCED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY ADVERSE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT TREMENDOUSLY WET OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS: TS BERYL BROUGHT OUR LAST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER 10 DAYS AGO AND ONE-WEEK RAINFALL (NOT COUNTING TODAY) IS
ONLY 5-25% OF NORMAL. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD EASE ITS WAY TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR (1.50 INCH PW) ADVECTING IN ON
LIGHT NW/N WINDS ALOFT DURING THE DAY. THIS IS NEARLY THE SAME
TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WOULD BRING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER NE SURGE DOWN THE COAST WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR PENETRATING FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE RESTRICTED TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BRIEFLY REACH 84-85 DEGREES ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE FOR ONLY A FEW
MINUTES IN BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS. AFTER A HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-73...SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS
INLAND TO REACH THE UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO
67-71...ALTHOUGH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION BEHIND OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AS ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z GFS COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO A OMEGA CONFIGURATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
FOCUS FOR OUR AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. IT APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING OCCURS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO WARRANT NORTHEAST RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
POPS. OPERATIONAL GFS/MEX NUMBERS ARE QUITE COOL AND OPTED FOR
SLIGHTLY MODIFIED/WARMER HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AIRMASS VERY JUICY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
TWO INCHES. THIS CREATES MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE
PRECIP OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SO IT MAY NOT HOLD WEIGHT
FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...IT SHOWS AN AREA OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING FOR DIURNAL REASONS AS IT NEARS THE COAST.
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AT NEARLY ANY TIME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD GO IFR INLAND TOWARD MORNING.
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING ON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS/IFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT IS A FAIRLY WEAK
HIGH...ITS MAIN CENTER OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR TERM
HOWEVER AND ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND SPEED TO THE FCST. THIS BUMP IN
WINDS PAIRED WITH THE SLIGHT INC IN SE SWELL ENERGY WILL YIELD A
FORECAST OF 2 OR 3 TO 4 FT FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
BEACHES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SLOW-MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHERE BATCHES OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN THE FUTURE...MODEL
TRENDS HINT AT THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A SECOND MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY...WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT
CONCERNING WHETHER A NORTHEAST SURGE DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY
INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT THE
12Z GFS WOULD IMPLY SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT STRONGER THAN THE 12Z NAM MODEL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS
PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER RANGE MOST OF THE TIME. CAVEAT TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS THE EMBEDDED
NUMEROUS SURGES WHICH ARE ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO RECONCILE THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME. SEAS WILL HOVER IN A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY HIGHER INTO FLAG
CRITERIA SATURDAY AS THE FETCH PERSISTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS NORTH AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE AT THIS POINT...JUST
TRYING TO PIN DOWN BEST LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES. AGREE
WITH PREV FCST THAT MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST...THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A
FEW SMALLER SCALE BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG
APPARENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
THINK THAT THEY WILL NOT CONTINUE. SUCH FEATURES WILL BE TOUGH TO
TIME BUT ALSO NOT LEAD TO VERY APPRECIABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 6 AM MONDAY...A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THIS PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
AND A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TO OUR W CONTINUES TO APPROACH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TOP 2 INCHES AS SSW TO SW LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST INLAND FROM THE COAST. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADD LIFT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE
TONIGHT. HARD TO RULE OUT PRECIPITATION AT ANY POINT THIS PERIOD.
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JETTING AND LIFT INCREASES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THERE GIVEN THE DEEP...
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER THAT DEVELOPS FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH
20 KFT...MOST PRONOUNCED INLAND. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE LATE
IN THE PERIOD SHOULD CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST QPF VALUES THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES. AS
YOU NEAR THE COAST...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LOWER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE RIDGING WILL ACQUIESCE LAST AND AS
A RESULT POPS WILL BE LOWEST.
DIURNAL RANGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE AND ABUNDANCE
OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 70S. IT WILL FEEL RATHER HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY... DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING UP FROM THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES THIS
COLD FRONT EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED. THE H5
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SUPPORT FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. GFS/NAM SHOWING BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE TUES AFTN THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
BY WED AFTN. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP TO 2.25 INCHES AHEAD AND
ALONG COLD FRONT TUES AFTN THROUGH TUES NIGHT. GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
CLEAN PASSAGE OF FRONT EARLY WED BUT NAM SHOWS SEA BREEZE KICKING
IN ON WED WITH MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND HOLDING OFF
FROPA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE HATTERAS COAST ON THURS. THIS MAY HELP TO THROW
AROUND SOME MOISTURE ON BACK END...BUT OVERALL EXPECT DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...H5 RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE
MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY DIG SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
PRODUCING SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL SHOW
DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR THURS BUT WILL ADD SOME LOW END POPS
BACK IN FORECAST MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS AND JUST ALONG THE
COAST FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW.
TEMPS WILL RUN INTO THE 80S DURING THE DAY AND IN THE 60S AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AIRMASS VERY JUICY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
TWO INCHES. THIS CREATES MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE
PRECIP OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SO IT MAY NOT HOLD WEIGHT
FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...IT SHOWS AN AREA OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING FOR DIURNAL REASONS AS IT NEARS THE COAST.
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AT NEARLY ANY TIME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE MOST
PART BUT COULD GO IFR INLAND TOWARD MORNING.
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING ON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS/IFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY STEAD SET OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY TO BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. SOME LOW LEVEL JETTING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LANDMASS...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET LEADING TO A FEW KTS INCREASE IN
SSWRLY FLOW. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 FT AT THE BUOYS WITH PEAK PD AT 5 SEC. A
SMALL 10 SEC SWELL SHOWING UP AS WELL. BOTH WAVE COMPONENTS WILL
CONTINUE AS-IS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 6 AM MONDAY...A SOUTH TO SSW FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WATERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. LOW
LEVEL JETTING THIS PERIOD WILL BE STRONGEST LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS
COULD REACH 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME 5 FOOTERS CREEPING INTO THE
OUTERMOST WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. A 9 TO 10
SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 20
KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
TUES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COASTAL WATERS ON WED WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE DIMINISHING OFF SHORE
FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ON
THURSDAY MAY INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ON FRIDAY AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. SEAS MAY
INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS FRI INTO TE WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THEREFORE WILL REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH SEA
HEIGHTS FOR NOW. WNA MODEL SHOWS SEAS SHOOTING UP ON FRI TO NEAR
SCA THRESHOLDS IN OUTER WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A VERY TOUGH FORECAST MAINLY TO DO WITH THE COVERAGE. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO INDICATE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING. WENT ALONG WITH THAT BUT VERY
MUCH ON THE EDGE.
FOR NORTHWEST OHIO...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHWEST OHIO THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE MCS
OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS DOESN`T SEEM LIKE IT WILL BE A PROBLEM
FOR THE AREA. THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS...WHICH MAY BE OK
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH
THE AIRMASS NOT THAT UNSTABLE.
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE THAT HIGH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION.
WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND NOT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE EDGE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SHOULD NOT BE
THAT EXTREME TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS... EXCEPT
MAY BE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR
10 C.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS AND HIGHS. TENDED TOWARD
COOLER ESPECIALLY FOR NIGHT TIME READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THOSE WANTING RAIN...THIS IS NOT A GOOD LONG TERM FORECAST.
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. MUCH OF THE HEAT
WILL BE TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO OUR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 80S. POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE EAST. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
SINCE LATELY WE HAVE BEEN WARMING BETTER THAN THE CLIMO WEIGHTED
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. WE ARE GETTING DRIER AND WE HAVE A LONG JUNE
DAY TO WARM. AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWER/TS CHANCES DO NOT EVEN LOOK
THAT GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS SLOW TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT THEY WILL. MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. CU HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE BUBBLY OVER INDIANA AND TOL/FDY
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. A LOT OF QUESTION AS
TO WHAT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME EMBEDDED TS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE/EARLY MORNING.
SOME GUIDANCE IS WANTING TO GO AS LOW AS IFR WITH VSBY AND/OR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE SO HAVE GONE WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE MVFR
OVERNIGHT. CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT...WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR...NONE.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET MIXED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. LOOKING AT POSSIBLE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EVENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER THE EAST COAST AND SETS UP A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
428 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH 10 PM CDT TONIGHT...BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE KEPT 20/30 PERCENT
CHANCES. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR ABILENE TEXAS WHERE THE CAP
HAS BEEN BROKEN AND WILL MOVE EAST AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST. WITH
THE AIR BEING UNSTABLE WITH SOME SHEAR...THINK LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING WIND OF 65
MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOTICED THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATED ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT EAST OF I-35...SO KEPT 20 PERCENT
IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUITE
LOW DUE TO STRONG CAPPING.
AFTER 10 PM CDT TONIGHT...KEPT RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF A CLINTON TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO SWEETWATER LINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM AS LATEST
MODELS INDICATED THE MID LEVEL CAP WEAKENING WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO +9/10C. WITH ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE FOCUS FOR
LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAK...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
TUESDAY...KEPT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL THREAT
MAY BE LOWER COMPARED TO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...KEPT LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
BOTH DAYS.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 85 66 86 / 20 20 40 30
HOBART OK 64 87 67 89 / 20 40 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 88 71 91 / 40 30 50 30
GAGE OK 55 84 62 88 / 0 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 60 86 61 86 / 0 0 20 30
DURANT OK 71 87 70 88 / 50 30 40 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK DELAYING THE EXIT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MSTR ALOFT IS THICKENING UP AND DIURNAL CU IS FORMING/FILLING IN.
THE LOW CRUD IN THE EAST IS GONE. THICKER LINE OF CU FORMING FROM
YORK TO STATE COLLEGE COULD MAKE ISOLD SHRA BEFORE SUNSET. THE MESO
MDLS LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC DO GENERATE SOME RAINFALL THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE PARAM. SHOWERS ALSO MOVING THRU FAR WRN PA HAVE A
DISTINCT LACK OF LTG DESPITE LOW STABILITY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
TO SLIDE TO THE WEST AND AFFECT THE FAR WRN ZONES THIS EVENING.
RAIN WILL NOT BE HEAVY AT ALL...WITH JUST A TENTH OR SO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC T FOR THE REGION WITH
STABILITY LOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN THE HEIGHTS START TO DROP FASTER. PWATS CLIMB MORE THAN AN
INCH THRU SUNRISE AND THE MDL SOUNDINGS DECIDEDLY MOIST-ADIABATIC
FOR LATER TONIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.
SKY COVER WILL BECOME 100PCT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL FAR BELOW THE MID 60S.
FFG AND FFH NUMBERS ARE PRETTY LOFTY - ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO 3.5
INCHES IN 3 HRS...SO IT WOULD NEED TO BE MUCH HEAVIER RAIN THAN
EXPECTED TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE DURATION OF THE EVENT
AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT ARGUE AGAINST ANY
FLOOD WATCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL IN ORDER THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. STABLE PRECIP SHOULD DOMINATE OVER
CONVECTIVE FORCING. LLJET IS NOT STRONG AT ALL. SHEAR ALSO ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...SPC DOES MENTION THE AREA IN THE DAY2
OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN BUT FOREGO MENTIONS
OF GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET THE CLOUDS
OUT OF THE WAY LONG ENOUGH AND MATCH UP THE TIMING OF UPPER
FORCING OR THE COLD FRONT WITH THAT POSSIBLE WINDOW OF STRONGER
SFC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
THE HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL NOT BE TAPPED VERY EFFECTIVELY WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD UPRIGHT CONVECTION TO TAP INTO IT. OVERALL...A GENERAL
1 INCH OF PRECIP IS LOOKING LIKE THE STORM TOTAL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...THOSE AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT RAISE EYEBROWS WITH VEGETATION
FULLY GROWN AND STREAM FLOWS AROUND NORMAL.
TIMING OF THE FROPA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREV
FCSTS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE TUES AFTN IN THE WEST
AND IN THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HRS...BUT TAPER THEM OFF COMPLETELY FROM WEST TO EAST
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HANG BACK BEHIND THE
MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP AND GENERATE SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. MAXES WILL BE IN THE 70S OVERALL WITHOUT SIG BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER. DRY AIR FINALLY WORKS IN TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT
AS THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. CLEARING - IN THE WEST
AT LEAST - MAY ALLOW FOG TO FORM AS TEMPS DIP CLOSE TO 50 IN THE
WRN MTS AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. BUT WIND
AND DRYING AIRMASS MAY NEGATE THAT AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW FCST TO CUT-
OFF OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC /FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK/
MAY HOLD THE BOUNDARY/TROFFINESS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FOR SEVERAL DAYS MORE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA...AS A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS LLVL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO.
LATEST LONG TERM GUIDANCE HAS FLOPPED BACK TO A DRIER SOLUTION
THAT WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY WITH REGARD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BEING
SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS ARE NOT
COMPLETELY DRY...THUS THIS APPEARS TO THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK /LED SEVERAL HUNDRED KM BY A 1024 MB SFC
HIGH/...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER SUMMER-LIKE PERIOD LATER IN THE
EXTENDED.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE MID MISS
VALLEY TO LAKE MICHIGAN...AND SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE NORTH ATLC
UPPER LOW...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUD COVER...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND COULD
TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT SHOWER OR TSTM OVER S/W PA THROUGH THIS EVE.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUES...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. EXPECT SHRA
TO INCREASE IN CVRG/INTENSITY AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
TUES...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUES NGT. MOIST S-SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS...WITH VIS
FLUCTUATIONS IN MOD TO OCNLY HVY SHRA/TSRA.
ONCE THE FRONT PULLS EAST OF THE REGION...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK /WED-SAT/ LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NE UNITED STATES.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
241 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK DELAYING THE EXIT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MSTR ALOFT IS THICKENING UP AND DIURNAL CU IS FORMING/FILLING IN.
THE LOW CRUD IN THE EAST IS GONE. THICKER LINE OF CU FORMING FROM
YORK TO STATE COLLEGE COULD MAKE ISOLD SHRA BEFORE SUNSET. THE MESO
MDLS LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC DO GENERATE SOME RAINFALL THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE PARAM. SHOWERS ALSO MOVING THRU FAR WRN PA HAVE A
DISTINCT LACK OF LTG DESPITE LOW STABILITY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
TO SLIDE TO THE WEST AND AFFECT THE FAR WRN ZONES THIS EVENING.
RAIN WILL NOT BE HEAVY AT ALL...WITH JUST A TENTH OR SO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC T FOR THE REGION WITH
STABILITY LOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN THE HEIGHTS START TO DROP FASTER. PWATS CLIMB MORE THAN AN
INCH THRU SUNRISE AND THE MDL SOUNDINGS DECIDEDLY MOIST-ADIABATIC
FOR LATER TONIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.
SKY COVER WILL BECOME 100PCT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL FAR BELOW THE MID 60S.
FFG AND FFH NUMBERS ARE PRETTY LOFTY - ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO 3.5
INCHES IN 3 HRS...SO IT WOULD NEED TO BE MUCH HEAVIER RAIN THAN
EXPECTED TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE DURATION OF THE EVENT
AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT ARGUE AGAINST ANY
FLOOD WATCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL IN ORDER THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. STABLE PRECIP SHOULD DOMINATE OVER
CONVECTIVE FORCING. LLJET IS NOT STRONG AT ALL. SHEAR ALSO ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...SPC DOES MENTION THE AREA IN THE DAY2
OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN BUT FOREGO MENTIONS
OF GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET THE CLOUDS
OUT OF THE WAY LONG ENOUGH AND MATCH UP THE TIMING OF UPPER
FORCING OR THE COLD FRONT WITH THAT POSSIBLE WINDOW OF STRONGER
SFC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
THE HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL NOT BE TAPPED VERY EFFECTIVELY WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD UPRIGHT CONVECTION TO TAP INTO IT. OVERALL...A GENERAL
1 INCH OF PRECIP IS LOOKING LIKE THE STORM TOTAL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY
LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...THOSE AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT RAISE EYEBROWS WITH VEGETATION
FULLY GROWN AND STREAM FLOWS AROUND NORMAL.
TIMING OF THE FROPA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREV
FCSTS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE TUES AFTN IN THE WEST
AND IN THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HRS...BUT TAPER THEM OFF COMPLETELY FROM WEST TO EAST
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HANG BACK BEHIND THE
MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP AND GENERATE SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. MAXES WILL BE IN THE 70S OVERALL WITHOUT SIG BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER. DRY AIR FINALLY WORKS IN TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT
AS THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. CLEARING - IN THE WEST
AT LEAST - MAY ALLOW FOG TO FORM AS TEMPS DIP CLOSE TO 50 IN THE
WRN MTS AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. BUT WIND
AND DRYING AIRMASS MAY NEGATE THAT AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE
AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW FCST TO CUT-OFF OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC /FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK/ MAY HOLD THE
BOUNDARY/TROFFINESS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS
MORE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA...AS A
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS LLVL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO.
UPPER RIDGING IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK /LED SEVERAL HUNDRED KM BY A 1024 MB SFC
HIGH/...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER SUMMER-LIKE PERIOD LATER IN THE
EXTENDED.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE MID MISS
VALLEY TO LAKE MICHIGAN...AND SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE NORTH ATLC
UPPER LOW...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUD COVER...THE THE CHC FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND COULD
TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT SHOWER OR TSTM OVER S/W PA THROUGH THIS EVE.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUES...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. EXPECT SHRA
TO INCREASE IN CVRG/INTENSITY AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
TUES...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUES NGT. MOIST S-SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS...WITH VIS
FLUCTUATIONS IN MOD TO OCNLY HVY SHRA/TSRA.
ONCE THE FRONT PULLS EAST OF THE REGION...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK /WED-SAT/ LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NE UNITED STATES.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AND SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS MCS IS PROGRESSING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML/CAP)
OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WAS ALSO EVIDENT
FROM THE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING. THE CAP WEAKENS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
AND THE LATEST STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS SHOULD MAKE A
TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE HEART OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE MCS. MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED
4000 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF THE EML AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND LI/S
BETWEEN -8C AND -12C SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
POOL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS AND
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY ALSO POSE A SEVERE
THREAT. PLAN TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK AREAWIDE AND ADD MENTION OF
SEVERE IN THE ZONES. ALSO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED SITUATION.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED
SHORTLY.
JLH
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAIN CHANCES. EARLY
THIS MORNING... SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS SPREADING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH... IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSTREAM OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS... A ROBUST LINEAR MCS WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NW MISSOURI. 850/500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS
FEATURE MAY BEGIN A MORE SOUTHERLY PROPAGATION. KSGF VAD WIND
PROFILER SHOWED 25KTS OF INFLOW...THOUGH THIS INFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
AFTER A WEAKENING OF THE MO STORM COMPLEX... NAM MODEL REDEVELOPS
STORMS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD MIDDAY. THIS APPEARS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING... FALLING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE
TROF.
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN GOOD SUPPLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON... WITH PARTIAL SUN AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS.
DESPITE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...THE HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ATTAINABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS.
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
CORE WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH... A
PATTERN WHICH WILL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC OVERNIGHT. THIS
SUGGESTS ELEVATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
THROUGH MESOSCALE PROPAGATION PROCESSES WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON
WHERE STORMS OCCUR.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING DRIER
MIDCONTINENTAL AIR TO AREAS NORTH OF I40 BY AFTERNOON. 06Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY HANG UP OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRIER AIR OVER ALL THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY... DEWPOINTS RECOVER TO THE
60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS SET TO SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS CORROBORATED WELL BY THE
LATEST HRRR RUN. HAVE TIMED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT A
FEW QUIET HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF TSRAS.
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. KEPT A VCTS GOING FOR NOW SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THIS MESOSCALE ACTIVITY BEYOND A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SSW WINDS
AT 8-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH WINDS
SHOULD SHARPLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GUST. ADDED A WIND GROUP TO
KJBR IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE OTHER
3 SITES TO ADD THIS YET. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK AFTER THE COMPLEX
MOVES THROUGH AND THEN EVENTUALLY RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 8-10 KTS.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 90 74 87 65 / 60 50 40 10
MKL 88 69 85 59 / 60 50 40 0
JBR 87 67 86 61 / 80 50 10 0
TUP 89 71 86 65 / 50 60 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1115 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AND SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS MCS IS PROGRESSING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML/CAP)
OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WAS ALSO EVIDENT
FROM THE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING. THE CAP WEAKENS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
AND THE LATEST STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS SHOULD MAKE A
TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE HEART OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE ATMOSPERE WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE MCS. MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED
4000 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF THE EML AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND LI/S
BETWEEN -8C AND -12C SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
POOL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS AND
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY ALSO POSE A SEVERE
THREAT. PLAN TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK AREAWIDE AND ADD MENTION OF
SEVERE IN THE ZONES. ALSO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED SITUATION.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED
SHORTLY.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAIN CHANCES. EARLY
THIS MORNING... SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS SPREADING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH... IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSTREAM OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS... A ROBUST LINEAR MCS WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NW MISSOURI. 850/500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS
FEATURE MAY BEGIN A MORE SOUTHERLY PROPAGATION. KSGF VAD WIND
PROFILER SHOWED 25KTS OF INFLOW...THOUGH THIS INFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
AFTER A WEAKENING OF THE MO STORM COMPLEX... NAM MODEL REDEVELOPS
STORMS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD MIDDAY. THIS APPEARS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING... FALLING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE
TROF.
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN GOOD SUPPLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON... WITH PARTIAL SUN AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS.
DESPITE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...THE HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ATTAINABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS.
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
CORE WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH... A
PATTERN WHICH WILL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC OVERNIGHT. THIS
SUGGESTS ELEVATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
THROUGH MESOSCALE PROPAGATION PROCESSES WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON
WHERE STORMS OCCUR.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING DRIER
MIDCONTINENTAL AIR TO AREAS NORTH OF I40 BY AFTERNOON. 06Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY HANG UP OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRIER AIR OVER ALL THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY... DEWPOINTS RECOVER TO THE
60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL HAS
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY UP ACROSS MISSOURI THUS
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH NEW TAF SET. EXPECT POSSIBLY
TWO ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. FIRST...MODEL INDICATING A TSRA
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER NW ARKANSAS/SW MISSOURI AROUND 17-18Z. MCS
WILL PUSH EAST INTO KJBR AFTER 20Z AND POSSIBLY INTO KMEM AFTER
21Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO NEW TAF AS A RESULT. NAM ALSO
SHOWS THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE
WANES AS HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH COMPLEX WILL PUSH. A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR ALONG FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. FOR
NOW JUST LEFT VCTS WORDING AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS EARLIER TSRA
COMPLEX (IF IT DOES DEVELOP) COULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE KILLING
ANY ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT. IF HAD TO PICK
BEST TIMING AT KMEM FOR SECOND ROUND ACTIVITY TO OCCUR WOULD PICK
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6Z- 10Z. OTHERWISE...IFR CIGS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 15-19Z DEPENDING ON LOCATION. SW WINDS
BETWEEN 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TODAY...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 90 74 87 65 / 60 50 40 10
MKL 88 69 85 59 / 60 50 40 0
JBR 87 67 86 61 / 80 50 10 0
TUP 89 71 86 65 / 50 60 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
549 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AND
RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WIND SHIFT/DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE SHOWERS FORMING OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 11.15Z RUN CONTINUES THIS TREND
SHOWING THEM MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE SHOWERS AND BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...SO NO PLANS TO CARRY ANY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
AFTER THAT...IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH COOL AIR SETTLES IN OVER
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BOTH THE 11.12Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE 925 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN TO 5-7C TONIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO REBOUND TO AROUND 10C TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 50 TONIGHT AS A
NORTHWEST BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
THEM FROM GOING ANY LOWER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL
BE TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. EXPECTING
LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S WITH THE FAVORED COOLER SPOTS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE INTO THIS WAVE...BUT
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAKER BRANCH SPLITTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST UNDER UNDER THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH
1-2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND WHILE
THE FORCING IS NOT THAT STRONG FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A
20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THE 11.12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH AN EVEN FLATTER AND
FARTHER EAST RIDGE AXIS WHICH ALLOWS A SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND 11.12Z GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH DEFLECTS THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE KNOWN TO STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IN THE SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS
CONFIDENCE TO PULL THEM OUT IS JUST NOT THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
549 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TOMORROW AS COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST
PART OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE 11.21Z RAP
MODEL...SHOWING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP SOME GUSTS AROUND. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
THIS EVENING...THINK THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND END
THE GUSTS BETWEEN 1-2Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THE SUSTAINED WINDS UP BETWEEN 12-16KTS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VFR FAIR WEATHER CU
REFORMING TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AND
RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WIND SHIFT/DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE SHOWERS FORMING OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 11.15Z RUN CONTINUES THIS TREND
SHOWING THEM MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE SHOWERS AND BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...SO NO PLANS TO CARRY ANY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
AFTER THAT...IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH COOL AIR SETTLES IN OVER
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BOTH THE 11.12Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE 925 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN TO 5-7C TONIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO REBOUND TO AROUND 10C TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 50 TONIGHT AS A
NORTHWEST BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
THEM FROM GOING ANY LOWER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL
BE TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. EXPECTING
LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S WITH THE FAVORED COOLER SPOTS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE INTO THIS WAVE...BUT
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAKER BRANCH SPLITTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST UNDER UNDER THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH
1-2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND WHILE
THE FORCING IS NOT THAT STRONG FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A
20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND AND WHETHER THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THE 11.12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH AN EVEN FLATTER AND
FARTHER EAST RIDGE AXIS WHICH ALLOWS A SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND 11.12Z GEM ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH DEFLECTS THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE KNOWN TO STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IN THE SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS
CONFIDENCE TO PULL THEM OUT IS JUST NOT THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
1220 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
QUIET...GOOD VFR PERIOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY AS DRIER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCT 4K-5K FT DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRISK/GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
TEMPS COOL AND THE MIXING DEPTH DECREASES. DIURNAL WARMING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 900-850MB ON TUE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS
10-15KT G20KTS FOR TUE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION IN THE 09Z-13Z WED MORNING PERIOD AT SITES LIKE KONA/KLSE/
KPDC/KOVS/KLNR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1220 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
WITH TROUGHING IN-BETWEEN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN MN SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
WHICH IS EVIDENT BY A DEEP DRY SLOT ON WATER VAPOR AND CLEAR SKIES
ON IR IMAGERY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IN THE DRY SLOT WAS VERY DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.51 INCHES. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA
OF CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN WI SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND TO THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE...DUE TO
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN IN 925 AND 850MB PROFILER DATA.
CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER MN LAST EVENING HAS WEAKENED...DUE TO THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTING
SOUTH...DECREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AS WELL AS
RAP LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS INDICATING WEAKENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS AN MCV RIDING
NORTHEAST...ENTERING THE LA CROSSE AREA AS OF 08Z. ON ITS SOUTHEAST
SIDE...THE COMBINATION OF DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS
AND STORMS LINED ORTHOGONAL TO THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR HAS HELPED
PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS PRESENT JUST BEHIND THE CONVECTION...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO TO LA CROSSE WI. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PRESENT IN NORTHWEST MN. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATION SHOWED LOW CLOUDS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT...BEING PROPELLED BY THE CURRENT POTENT SHORTWAVE IN MN AND
A SECOND ONE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO MANITOBA...NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME OF THE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY TONIGHT. IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE TROUGH TO BRING A COOL DOWN
FROM WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN LATELY. FIRST ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS 11.00Z NAM SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE COMPLETELY
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AS
INSTABILITY TRIES TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE IT
CONVECTS...LIKELY BETWEEN 18-21Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS COMES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND IT. NO PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED...BUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS AS SEEN BACK IN THE DAKOTAS
SHOULD FILTER IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME CELLULAR RESULTING
FROM THE STRONG JUNE SUN...THUS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING IN
THE EVENING. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-16C AT 18Z PLUS PLENTY OF SUN AND DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
ONCE THE SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN. BETTER TEMPERATURE FALL EXPECTED
TONIGHT AIDED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. BY 12Z TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
DROP AT LEAST DOWN TO 4-7C...AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...RESULTING IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TURN
ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGHING LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...A SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED TO REACH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE COULD GET
INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 INCH OR
LESS SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR WARMING...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY STRUGGLE
GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO STILL BE AT 4-7C AT 18Z. IN
FACT...TAYLOR COUNTY MAY ONLY BE AROUND 2C. THESE ARE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A RESULT...ONLY FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S...20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO TANK FROM MIXING OF THE DRY AIR. SHOULD BE BREEZY TOO IN
THE MORNING ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING TO CALM WINDS. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
WISCONSIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS IN
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE RETURN FLOW AND CLOUDS COME IN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO AMPLIFY
AGAIN AS TROUGHING DROPS DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS AMPLIFICATION SHOULD HELP TAKE THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS COMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
IT WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY 00Z THURSDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE IT
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS AN ISSUE. INCREASING
305-310 K ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD SPREAD MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMITING HEATING SOMEWHAT...DESPITE WARMER 850MB TEMPS IN THE
8-12C RANGE. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY COULD BE IF FULL SUN WAS OBSERVED. THE
CLOUDS DO LOOK TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS
INTO ONTARIO. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS GIVEN NO STRONG
SIGNAL TO GO COLDER OR WARMER.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
11.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND IN FACT ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS IS THAT TROUGHING
WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS HAVE THE
TROUGH DIGGING MORE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
REALLY STRENGTHENS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE TROUGH WILL END UP STAYING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THUS...OVERALL MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS DRY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...NORTH OF I-90 SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE MOSTLY STEM FROM BEING
ON THE NOSE OF SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHORTWAVES COMING CLOSE
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE CHANCES MAY BE ABLE TO
BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER. ONE OTHER
PERIOD TO WATCH IS THURSDAY WITH THE 11.00Z ECMWF BEING REALLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER MN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO A SURGE OF WARM...MOIST AIR OCCURRING WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGING. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL DOES NOT BRING THE PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA AND OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING DRIER...HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY.
WHAT COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE AREA NOW STRONGLY FORECAST TO BE UNDER
RIDGING...AND IN BROAD BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH ANOTHER LONG STRETCH OF 80S AND PERHAPS 90S. NEW ECMWF REALLY
CAME IN WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HOVERING
AROUND 20C OR SO...RESULTING IN HIGHS OF 90-95. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AND THESE MAY STILL BE TOO
COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
1220 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
QUIET...GOOD VFR PERIOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY AS DRIER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCT 4K-5K FT DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRISK/GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
TEMPS COOL AND THE MIXING DEPTH DECREASES. DIURNAL WARMING WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 900-850MB ON TUE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS
10-15KT G20KTS FOR TUE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION IN THE 09Z-13Z WED MORNING PERIOD AT SITES LIKE KONA/KLSE/
KPDC/KOVS/KLNR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
330 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS